UTC)

July 13, 2019 by Goaty's News UK

TROPICAL STORM BARRY AL02

………BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…..Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast during the next several hours..NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

SEE UPDATES IN COMMENTS AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

Storm Surge
Watch/Warning (link)

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NWS radar Image from New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

000
WTNT32 KNHC 131152
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

…BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Barry is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Barry will make landfall along the
south-central Louisiana coast during the next several hours.
After landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward
through the Mississippi Valley through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 70 mph
(115 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast during the next several hours.
Steady weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 71 mph and a
wind gust of 85 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 991 mb (29.26 inches). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Barry.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS…3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas…1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley beginning as early as later this morning. Across
the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western
portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions currently
spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area later this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Local Products

Issuing WFO Homepage	Local Impacts	Local Statement
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA	Threats and Impacts	457 AM CDT Sat Jul 13
Lake Charles, LA	Threats and Impacts	503 AM CDT Sat Jul 13

TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 13 Jul, 2019 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BARRY is currently located near 29.1 N 91.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). BARRY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Other

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Offshore Waters Forecast (Gulf of Mexico)

000
FZNT24 KNHC 130845
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-132045-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Barry near 29.1N 91.8W 993 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving WNW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt.
Barry is forecast to reach hurricane strength as it nears the
coast just prior to landfall. Barry will move inland to 29.8N
92.1W this afternoon, to 30.9N 92.6W Sun morning, weaken to a
tropical depression near 32.3N 92.9W Sun afternoon, to 33.8N 93.0W
Mon morning, and 35.0N 93.0W Tue morning. Barry will become a
remnant low as it moves to 36.5N 92.5W early Wed, and dissipate by
Thu. Winds and seas will diminish and subside across the basin Sun
into early next week as high pres ridging builds westward across
the basin.

GMZ011-132045-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

GMZ013-132045-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. S to SW winds 30 to 40 kt.
Seas 9 to 14 ft. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S winds 25 to 30
kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

GMZ015-132045-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and SE to S 20 to 25 kt
elsewhere. Seas 7 to 11 ft in W swell. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in W swell.
.SUN…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

GMZ017-132045-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

GMZ019-132045-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE to S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W to NW
swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

GMZ021-132045-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

GMZ023-132045-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

GMZ025-132045-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Forecaster Lewitsky

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)

000
FZNT02 KNHC 130849
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 15.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM BARRY NEAR 29.1N 91.8W 993 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 13
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…130 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT…
180 NM SE QUADRANT…60 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N89W TO 30N93W TO 27N89W
TO 31N88W TO 27N84W TO 22N89W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BARRY 29.4N 91.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM
NE QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…130 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70
NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE
QUADRANT…270 NM SE QUADRANT…90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 0 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N90W TO 26N94W TO
30N93W TO 28N89W TO 29N84W TO 24N90W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BARRY INLAND NEAR 30.9N 92.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…105 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 27N90W TO 27N94W TO 29N94W TO 30N90W TO 29N86W
TO 27N90W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY INLAND NEAR 33.8N
93.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY NEAR 35.0N 93.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BARRY NEAR 36.5N
92.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC WITHIN 12N40W TO 12N41W TO 13N40W TO 12N40W NE TO E WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 13N46W TO 12N48W TO 13N48W TO 13N47W TO
13N46W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N54W TO 12N55W TO 14N60W TO 16N59W TO
16N56W TO 14N54W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 11N71W TO 11N75W TO 13N77W TO 14N75W TO 14N72W
TO 11N71W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N74W TO 12N78W TO 17N73W TO 18N72W TO
15N72W TO 11N74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N71W TO 11N75W TO 14N77W TO 17N73W TO
15N70W TO 11N71W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 16N86W TO 16N87W TO 16N88W TO 18N88W TO 18N86W
TO 16N86W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South-West Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone HALEH(10,17S) 04/1800Z 19.2S 72.4E, moving SSW 06kt (948hpa at 1200Z)(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 04 Mar 2019 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

March 4, 2019 by Goaty's News UK

Intense Tropical Cyclone HALEH (10,17S)

HALEH is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43 FEET – JTWC

La Réunion

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT – RSMC La Réunion

Bulletin of 04 March at 16:10 Réunion:

TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE HALEH. Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 240 km / h. Estimated pressure at the center: 948 hPa. Position March 04 at 16:00 local Réunion: 18.6 South / 72.7 East.Distance from the Reunion coast: 1785 km to the sector: ESTDistance from Mayotte: 3010 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EASTLocation: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, 13 km /h.This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see menu on the right) for forecasts on this system

WTIO31 FMEE 041252 CMRS / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF THE RéunionCOUNT OF ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 13/10 / 201820191.

A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 04/03/2019: IN A RADIUS OF 20 NM AROUND 18.6 S / 72.7 E (EIGHTEENTH DEGREES SIX SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVENTY TWO DEGREES SEAS EAST) DISPLACEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5 / 5.5 / D 1.0 / 12 H4.A CENTER PRESSURE: 948 HPA5.WIND MAX (MEDIUM / 10 NM): 90 MAXIMUM WINDS KTRAYON (RVM): 28 KM6.A WIND EXTENSION BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KW SE: 280 SE: 430 S: 430 NO: 19034 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 13048 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 9064 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 507.A COAST / DIAM FIRST ISOBARE CLOSED: 1001 HPA / 400 KM8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: PROFONDE1.B FORECAST: 12H: 05/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E , WIND MAX = 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE24H: 05/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 095 KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE36H: 06/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, WIND MAX = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE48H: 06/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIN = 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL60H: 07/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIN = 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE72H: 07/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIN = 060 KT, STRONG TROPICAL STORM2.B FUTURE TREND: 96H: 08/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND = 050 KT, STRONG TROPICAL STORM120H: 09/03/2019 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, LOW PRESSURE POST-TROPICAL.C COMMENTS:
T = CI = 5.5 OVER 6 HOURS, CLOUDY CONFIGURATION HAS REMAINED WELL THAN WITH WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SOUTH AREA. THIS WEAKNESS INDICATES A DVORAK ANALYSIS LIMITING THE CI TO 5.5. 1130UTC MICROWAVE DATA LEAVE THIS WEAKNESS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION.THE SHORTLY EXPECTED FORECAST FOR A SHORTLY EXPECTED TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY MORE TRAJECTORY TO THE WEST THAN INITIALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PUSH OF A NEW RIDGE THAT IS SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE TALWEG PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH, THIS RIDGE WILL REPEATLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST, FOSTERING A MORE SOUTHLY TRACK FROM THURSDAY / FRIDAY. AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AWARE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE SUCCESSFUL TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW BEFORE THE ALTITUDE TALWEG THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A GOOD POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL. FROM WEDNESDAY, HALEH WILL LOCATE UNDER A MODERN VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN KNOW A SLOW WEAKENING. FROM THURSDAY WEAKNESS SHOULD BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT

Bulletin du 04 mars à 16H10 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE HALEH.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 165 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 240 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 948 hPa.Position le 04 mars à 16 heures locales Réunion: 18.6 Sud / 72.7 Est.Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1785 km au secteur: ESTDistance de Mayotte: 3010 km au secteur: EST-SUD-ESTDéplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 13 km/h.Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système

WTIO31 FMEE 041252 CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNIONBULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/201820191.

A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (HALEH) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/03/2019 :DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES SEPT EST)DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KTRAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):28 KT NE: 280 SE: 430 SO: 430 NO: 19034 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 13048 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 9064 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 507.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 400 KM8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE1.B PREVISIONS:12H: 05/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE24H: 05/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE36H: 06/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE48H: 06/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL60H: 07/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL72H: 07/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:96H: 08/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE120H: 09/03/2019 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5DURANT LES 6 HEURES PASSEES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL S’EST MAINTENUE BIEN QUE PRESENTANT UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST A SUD. CETTE FAIBLESSE INDUIT UNE ANALYSE DE DVORAK LIMITANT LE CI A 5.5. LES DONNES MICRO-ONDES DE 1130UTC LAISSENT SUPPOSER DE CETTE FAIBLESSE N’EST QUE TEMPORAIRE ET QUE LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE HALEH DEVRAIT CONTINUER SA LENTE INTENSIFICATION.LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU A COURTE ECHEANCE, A L’EXCEPTION D’UNE TRAJECTOIRE LEGEREMENT PLUS A L’OUEST QU’INITIALEMENT SOUS L’EFFET DE LA POUSSEE D’UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE QUI VIENT SE GLISSER PAR LE SUD-OUEST. AVEC LE PASSAGE DU TALWEG BIEN AU SUD, CETTE DORSALE VA DE NOUVEAU FAIBLIR ET SE DECALER A L’EST, FAVORISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD A PARTIR DE JEUDI/VENDREDI. EN FIN D’ECHEANCES, LA TRAJECTOIRE EST PREVUE S’ACCELERER.LE SYSTEME CONNAIT ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES POUR POURSUIVRE SA LENTE INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DEVRAIT RESTER FAIBLE A L’AVANT DU TALWEG D’ALTITUDE QUI CONTINUE DE FOURNIR UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D’ALTITUDE PAR UN BON CANAL POLAIRE D’EVACUATION. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HALEH VA SE LOCALISER SOUS UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE DE NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAITRE UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, L’AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS SIGNIFICATIF AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN HAUSSE ET UN CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Haleh) Warning #10
Issued at 04/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 18.7S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 72.6E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 19.6S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 20.6S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 21.6S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 22.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 26.1S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 30.0S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 34.8S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 25-30 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST SIX HOURS AND THE CLOUD FIELD HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SYMMETRIC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE MSI LOOP
AND AN EYE FEATURE IN A 041130Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17S WILL TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AROUND TAU 96, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS TC 17S ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THROUGH
TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE AND THE
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN AT 100 KTS OR GREATER THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AFTER TAU 48, A COMBINATION OF DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, INCREASED VWS,
AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN, FALLING TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TC 17S
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
LIES EAST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF
NAVGEM, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE BULK OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO20 FMEE 041805
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
21.3 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

FQIO26 FIMP 041245

2:31:08:11:00

PAN PAN

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII (S) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS ISSUED ON MONDAY 04 MARCH 2019 AT 1245 UTC.

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH.

HALEH HAS INTENSIFIED INTO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

AT 04/1200UTC INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE

948 HPA WAS CENTERED WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E

EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN

DEGREES EAST).

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 07 KT

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 160 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTE

RN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS AT 1200 UTC THIS MONDAY 04 MARCH 2019.

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 05S 56S, 07S 65E, 09S 73E.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 948 HPA NEAR 18.6S AND 72.7E. MOVEMENT

SOUTH SOUTH WEST 07 KNOTS.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 04S 87E, 05S 91E, 07S 95E.

WAVE NEAR 09S 57E.

HIGH 1023 HPA NEAR 40S 54E.

HIGH 1035 HPA NEAR 40S 103E.

PART 3: AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS VALID UP TO TUESDAY 05 MARCH

2019 AT 1200 UTC.

NORTH EAST 8/1 AND EXTREME NORTH WEST 8/2: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF

PART 1.

REMAINING 8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 20-25 IN SOUTH EAST. SOUTH

EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 10-20 IN NORTH WEST. EAST SOUTH

EASTERLY BACKING TO NORTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH WEST. SEA ROUGH

BECOMING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH TOWARDS ITC ‘HALEH’. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN

EAST, ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY GOOD BECOMING MODERATE

IN SHOWERS.

REMAINING 8/2: EASTERLY TO EAST NORTH EASTERLY 20-25 IN NORTH.

EASTERLY 20 IN SOUTH, LOCALLY GUSTING 25 IN SOUTH WEST. SEA ROUGH

BECOMING VERY ROUGH IN NORTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTOR

S MAINLY IN NORTH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS, BECOMING POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

SOUTH EAST 8/3: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

REMAINING 8/3: SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH WEST.

SOUTHERLY VEERING TO WEST NORTH WESTERLY 10-20 ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY

GUSTING 25 IN NORTH EAST. SEA ROUGH BECOMING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN

SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN EAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

VISIBILITY GOOD IN WEST BECOMING MODERATE TO POOR IN EAST.

8/4: NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 20-25 IN EXTREME NORTH WEST VEERING TO

NORTH NORTH EASTERLY 25 IN SOUTH WEST. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH

EASTERLY 15-20 IN EXTREME EAST BACKING TO NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN

CENTRAL PART. SEA ROUGH IN WEST AND SOUTH EAST, MODERATE ELSEWHERE.

LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH

THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN WEST. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING

POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/5: NORTHERLY TO NORTH WESTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. NORTH WESTERLY TO

WESTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN

SOUTH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

8/6: NORTHERLY 10-15 IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. VARIABLE 05-10 IN

REMAINING WEST. SOUTHERLY 05 IN SOUTH EAST VEERING TO WESTERLY 10-15

ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

S. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/7: VARIABLE 05 IN SOUTH EAST. NORTHERLY TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 05

IN NORTH EAST. NORTHERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 05-10 IN WEST. SEA

MODERATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY GOOD.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

ITC ‘HALEH’ IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTH SOUTH WESTERLY

DIRECTION WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED

IN 8/1.

END=

===========================================================================================================

Fiji/ Tonga/ South Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone POLA 16P 271500Z position nr 21.0S 178.0W. moving SSW 09kt (JTWC) – Published 27 Feb 2019 1900Z (GMT/UTC)

February 27, 2019 by Goaty's News UK

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA 16P

POLA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and Intensity Category 3 storm on the local Fiji scale

DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU AS TC POLA IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ONO-I-LAU TONIGHT – RSMC Nadi

Fiji and Tonga beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 27 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Pola) Warning #07
Issued at 27/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 20.6S 177.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 177.9W
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 22.1S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 23.9S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 25.7S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 27.1S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 28.0S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 270916Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
16P IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO
25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 16P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE THROUGH TAU 48. SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL) WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION WITH TC 16P REACHING 90 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS AND WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TC 16P EASTWARD BY TAU 72 AND
ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
AGREEMENT BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone POLA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 153 issued 1631 UTC Wednesday 27 February 2019

Current and Past Cyclone Details

Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)

	Current Location and Intensity Number
	Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
	Destructive Storm Force Winds
	Damaging Gale Force Winds
	Past Track and Movement
	Past Location and Intensity Number

	Forecast Location and Intensity Number
	Very Destructive Wind Boundary
	Destructive Wind Boundary
	Gale Force Wind Boundary
	Most Likely Future Track
	Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone POLA

Details:

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	3 pm February 27	3	20.8S	177.9W	55
+6hr	9 pm February 27	3	21.6S	178.2W	85
+12hr	3 am February 28	3	22.3S	178.5W	110
+18hr	9 am February 28	3	23.2S	178.7W	140
+24hr	3 pm February 28	3	24.0S	178.9W	165
+36hr	3 am March 1	3	25.6S	179.0W	225
+48hr	3 pm March 1	3	26.9S	178.6W	285
+60hr	3 am March 2	2	27.7S	177.4W	375
+72hr	3 pm March 2	2	28.1S	175.5W	465

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 271334 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 972HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 177.8W AT
271200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND CONTINUING TO WRAP ONTO
LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW REMAINS
GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 250HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDED CENTER IN WHITE GIVES A DT=5.0,
MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO FT CONSTRAINTS. THUS YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 21.9S 178.4W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 23.5S 178.9W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 25.1S 179.1W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 26.5S 178.9W MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

HE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON POLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 272000 UTC.
Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 4:28am on Thursday the 28th of February 2019

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE LAU AND LOMAIVITI
GROUP.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 969HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8
SOUTH 177.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 KILOMETRES EAST OF ONO-I-LAU AND ABOUT 230
KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KABARA AT 3AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 130 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS
TO 185 KM/HR. THE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
140 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 195 KM/HR BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KM/HR AND THE CENTRE IS THE CLOSEST TO
ONO-I-LAU.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 190 KILOMETRES
SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU AT 3PM TODAY AND ABOUT 370 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU
AT 3AM TOMORROW.

FOR VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS
EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SPEED OF 45 TO 55 KM/HR, GUSTING TO 80
KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI
CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, FINE APART FROM AFTERNOON OR EVENING
SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN LAU WATERS: EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS.
FOR KORO SEA AND NORTHERN LAU WATERS: SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS: SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC POLA WILL BE ISSUED AT 7.30AM
TOMORROW OR EARLIER.

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICEGOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF FIJIMEDIA RELEASE No.324pm, Wednesday,27thFebruary2019

DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU AS TC POLA IS FORECASTEDTO PASS CLOSE TO ONO-I-LAU TONIGHT

At3pm this afternoon, TC Pola was located about 200kilometreseast-southeast of Lakeba and 200 kilometres northeast of Ono-i-Lau. TC Polaismovingsouth-southwest at 22km/hr, and should pass close to Ono-i-Lau tonight.

On theprojected track, TC Pola is expected to be located about 130 kilometres southeastof Ono-i-Lau at 3am tomorrow and about 300kilometres southof Ono-i-Lau at 3pmtomorrow.

For Vatoa andOno-i-Lau: Expect damaging gale force winds with average speeds up to 65 km/hr and momentary gusts to 90km/hr. Periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms is expected over these areas. Sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas of Vatoa and Ono-i-Lau due to damaging heavy swells.The effect of winds can cause damages to temporary sheds and weak structures, break tree branches, cause loose objects to fly, and uproot shallow rooted crops.

For the rest of the Lau and Lomaiviti Group: Expect fresh to strong southerly winds with speed of 45 to 55 km/hr, gusting to 80 km/hr. Periods of rain, heavy at times and a few thunderstorms is anticipated over these areas.

For the rest of Fiji: Expect cloudy periods with occasional showers and possible thunderstorms over the eastern parts of the larger islands. Elsewhere, expect fine weather apart from afternoon or evening showers. In anticipation of this, the following alert and warnings are currently in force:A “Heavy Rain Alert” is now in force for Lomaiviti Group, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands.A “Heavy Rain Warning” remains in force for the Lau and Lomaiviti Group. A “Gale Warning” is in force for Vatoa and Ono-i-Lau. A “Strong Wind Warning” remains in force for the rest of the Lau and Lomaiviti Group. For Southern Lau Waters:

Mariners can expect gale force winds up to 45 knots, gusting to 65 knots with high seas. Conditions are unsafe for sea activities.Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equippedvessels.For Koro Sea and Northern Lau Waters: Expect southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots, gusting to 40 knots with rough to very rough seas. Small craft operators are advised to exercise caution while venturing out into these waters.

For the rest of Fiji Waters: Expect southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots with moderate to rough seas.Localised heavy falls may leadto flash flooding of low lying areas. Therefore, those living in low lying and flood prone areas as well as landslide prone areas are advised to remain alert and take appropriate precaution if and when necessary.Members of the public are requested to remain updated with the latest weather information and take alerts and warnings seriously.For more details and the latest on weather, please contact the National Weather Forecasting Centre on 6736006, 9905376 or visit the Fiji Meteorological Service’s website, http://www.met.gov.fj. You can also visit the Fiji Meteorological Service official Facebook page for latest updates. Misaeli Funaki (Mr.)DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 27 Feb, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone POLA is currently located near 20.6 S 177.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). POLA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. POLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku’ alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (SSHWC) or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WHPS01 NFFN 271200
HURRICANE WARNING 151 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 271307 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 972HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4 SOUTH 177.8
WEST AT 271200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.4S 177.8W at 271200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS BY
280000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.9S 178.4W AT 280000 UTC
AND NEAR 23.5S 178.9W AT 281200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 150.

===========================================================================================================

Australia: Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P 13/0600Z 15.1S 136.1E, slow moving. Max Wind 75kt. 961hPa (BoM) – Updated 13 Dec 2018 1000Z (GMT/UTC)

December 12, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P

Australian Category 3 intensity = Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Severe TC Owen may reach Australian Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..– BoM

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP NT

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Issued at 4:53 pm ACST Thursday 13 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 24.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:
– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.
– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.
– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.
– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.
– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using
available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm December 13	3	15.1S	136.1E	35
+6hr	10 pm December 13	3	15.0S	136.5E	60
+12hr	4 am December 14	4	14.8S	137.2E	80
+18hr	10 am December 14	4	14.8S	138.1E	105
+24hr	4 pm December 14	4	15.0S	139.3E	130
+36hr	4 am December 15	3	15.8S	141.7E	165
+48hr	4 pm December 15	tropical low	17.2S	143.9E	200
+60hr	4 am December 16	tropical low	18.7S	145.7E	235
+72hr	4 pm December 16	tropical low	20.1S	147.5E	270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 pm ACST Thursday

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Issued at 5:28 pm AEST Thursday 13 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 24.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Strong Gale Force Winds
Gale Force Winds

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 4:00 pm AEST:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

Hazards:

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

Details:

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm December 13	3	15.1S	136.1E	35
+6hr	10 pm December 13	3	15.0S	136.5E	60
+12hr	4 am December 14	4	14.8S	137.2E	80
+18hr	10 am December 14	4	14.8S	138.1E	105
+24hr	4 pm December 14	4	15.0S	139.3E	130
+36hr	4 am December 15	3	15.8S	141.7E	165
+48hr	4 pm December 15	tropical low	17.2S	143.9E	200
+60hr	4 am December 16	tropical low	18.7S	145.7E	235
+72hr	4 pm December 16	tropical low	20.1S	147.5E	270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:30 pm AEST Thursday

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Port Roper and Port McArthur, including Port McArthur are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 4:52 pm ACST [5:22 pm AEST] on Thursday 13 December 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw.

Watch Zone
Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen.

Cancelled Zone
None

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST [4:00 pm AEST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South 136.1 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur.

Movement: slow moving.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:

– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.

– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.

– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.

– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.

– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using

available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm ACST Thursday 13 December [8:30 pm AEST Thursday 13 December].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone OWEN is currently located near 15.1 S 136.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). OWEN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OWEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alyangula (13.9 S, 136.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Numbulwar (14.5 S, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Borroloola (16.1 S, 136.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Edward River (15.0 S, 141.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (Hurricane) or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:15S136E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, PERTH
Issued at 0724UTC 13 DECEMBER 2018

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal one south (15.1S)
longitude one hundred and thirty six decimal one east (136.1E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 75 knots
Central pressure: 961 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre increasing to 95 knots by 0000 UTC 14
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 13 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.8 south 137.2 east
Central pressure 949 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 14 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.0 south 139.3 east
Central pressure 946 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1330 UTC 13 December 2018.

PERTH Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

===========================================================================================================

Mexico / Pacific Ocean: Hurricane WILLA 24E 231500Z near 21.4N 106.9W, moving NNE ~4.8kt (NHC FL) – Updated 23 Oct 2018 1535Z (GMT/UTC)

October 23, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

HURRICANE WILLA 24E

WILLA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

……AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO… – NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 26 FEET- JTWC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 231500
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

…AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by this evening. On the forecast
track, the center of Willa will move over Las Islas Marias within
the next few hours, and make landfall within the hurricane warning
area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is forecast today,
Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall tonight
and continuing into Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Maria
today, and will spread into the hurricane warning area along
the coast of mainland Mexico this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring on Las Islas Marias, and will continue to
spread northward along the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area today.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
Swells during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Oct, 2018 15:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane WILLA is currently located near 21.4 N 106.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). WILLA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. WILLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Durango (24.0 N, 104.7 W)
probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Hurricane 24E (Willa) Warning #14
Issued at 23/1600Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 21.1N 107.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 107.1W
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 22.7N 105.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 24.9N 102.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 26.7N 99.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
—
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 106.7W.
HURRICANE 24E (WILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 877 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 23E (VICENTE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ24 KNHC 231500 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN… INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
… NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W…INLAND

===========================================================================================================

Johnston Island/ Hawaii/ Central Pacific/ HURRICANE HECTOR CAT3 10E 09/1500Z 16.6N 160.1W, moving W ~14.03kt 957mb (CPHC) – Updated 09 Aug 2018 1820Z (GMT/UTC)

August 9, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

HURRICANE HECTOR 10E

Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

……MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON

JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK…….CPHC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
Johnston Island – CPHC

FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF HECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY – NWS HI

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Hector – CPHC

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

WTPA31 PHFO 091452
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 09 2018

…MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH
OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON JOHNSTON ISLAND
LATER THIS WEEK…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.6N 160.1W
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 620 MI…1000 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for…
* Johnston Island

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
*A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Johnston Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible
within the next 48 hours.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway
and Kure Atolls and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
west of Pearl/Hermes, should monitor the progress of Hector. This
does not include the main Hawaiian Islands.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 160.1 West. Hector is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through today. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest is expected from tonight through late Friday. Note
that on the forecast path, the center of Hector is expected to pass
to the north of Johnston Island late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast
through Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Hector should begin to impact Johnston
Island tonight. This will likely produce large and dangerous waves
along portions of the island from late tonight through Friday
night.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston

Links:

Hawaii Emergency Management Agency
City and County of Honolulu Department of Emergency Management
Kauai Emergency Management
Maui County Emergency Management
Hawaii County Civil Defense

NWS Forecast Office Honolulu, HI

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

Other

Subtropical Storm Debby Forms; Cat 4 Hector Poised to Graze Hawaii

Dr. Jeff Masters August 7, 2018, 2:34 PM EDT

Dr. Jeff Masters co-founded Weather Underground in 1995, and flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Hurricane Hector Thread: The NWS has issued a Tropical Storm WARNING for HI Island. High probability of tropical storm force winds expected anytime within the next 36 hours.
As of 5:00 pm Tuesday, the center of Hurricane Hector was 370 mi ESE of South Point, moving W at 16 mph.

— COH Civil Defense (@CivilDefenseHI) August 8, 2018

MARITIME/SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING

Offshore Waters Forecast for Hawaii
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
528 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240
nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height
of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than
twice the significant wave height.

PHZ180-092215-
Hawaiian Offshore Waters-
528 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…Hurricane conditions expected far SW waters early. Seas
10 to 20 ft. Elsewhere, E to SE winds 10 to 20 kt and seas 7 to 10
ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft, highest SW.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY…E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

WTPA21 PHFO 091449 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102018
1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR…
. JOHNSTON ISLAND

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. JOHNSTON ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS… INCLUDING MIDWAY
AND KURE ATOLLS AND THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
WEST OF PEARL/HERMES…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HECTOR. THIS
DOES NOT INCLUDE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 160.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 150SW 190NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 160.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 159.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 162.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.2N 164.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

=============================================================================

US/ Canada/ Atlantic: Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRIS 12/1500Z 44.4N 57.7W, moving NE ~30.7kt. 987mb (NHC FL) – Updated 12 Jul 2018 1540Z (GMT/UTC)

July 12, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRIS

…POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS RACING TOWARD CAPE RACE AND THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY……NHC

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Hurricane Chris.

United States

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

394
WTNT33 KNHC 121459
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018

…POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS RACING TOWARD CAPE RACE AND THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…44.4N 57.7W
ABOUT 290 MI…470 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 275 MI…440 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 36 MPH…57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Chris.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris
was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57
km/h) and this motion is expected to !** [PLACE EXPECTED MOTION INFO
HERE] **!

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. !**
[ADD ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSITY INFO HERE] **!

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Even though Chris is moving away from the United States,
swells generated by the storm will affect portions of the coast from
North Carolina northward to New England during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward along the southern coasts of
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland overnight and into Thursday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters).
These rains may cause flash flooding. Sable Island has received
more than 2.3 inches (60 millimeters) of rainfall during the past
few hours.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Other
information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris can be found in products
issued by Environment Canada/Canadian Hurricane Centre on the
internet at weather.gc.ca/hurricane/.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

CANADA

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

8:41 AM ADT Thursday 12 July 2018
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Burin Peninsula – Southern Avalon
Connaigre
St. John’s – Bonavista Peninsula
Terra Nova
Nova Scotia:

Guysborough County
Halifax County – east of Porters Lake
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Lunenburg County
Queens County
Richmond County
Shelburne County
Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
For Tropical Storm Chris.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Chris accelerating northeastward toward Newfoundland. Expected to track across southern Avalon Peninsula this evening as a strong post-tropical storm. Will bring rain, gusty winds, and high waves to southeastern Newfoundland today.

1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 a.m. ADT.

Location: Near 43.2 North 58.7 West.

About 585 km southwest of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Northeast at 59 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 985 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Rainfall and wind warnings are in effect for parts of southeastern Newfoundland. A special weather statement is also in effect for waves and possible storm surge impacts.

Chris has continued to accelerate northeastward and has started to weaken It is expected to track near the southern Avalon Peninsula this evening as a post-tropical storm. It will bring heavy rain, strong and gusty winds, heavy pounding surf and elevated coastal water levels to parts of southeastern Newfoundland.

Nova Scotia should be spared any direct impacts from Chris, other than ocean swells along the Atlantic coast beginning later this morning. They will reach 2-3 metres west of Halifax and 3-4 further east, and will gradually diminish tonight and Friday.

a. Wind.

Wind warnings are in effect for the southeastern half of the Avalon Peninsula. This region could see southerly wind gusts up to 100 km/h Thursday evening as Chris passes. Further to the north and west strong and gusty easterly winds are likely ahead of Chris but should remain below warning criteria.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for most of southeastern Newfoundland where up to 80 millimetres of rain is expected. Rain will likely begin over these areas this morning well ahead of Chris but will become heavier later in the day as the centre of the storm makes its closest approach to the island. Rain should taper off quickly tonight as Chris speeds away into the North Atlantic.

Current radar imagery shows easternmost Cape Breton could get brushed by an outer rain band from Chris this morning, but elsewhere in Nova Scotia the likelihood for any rain from Chris is very low.

c. Surge and waves.

High waves, pounding surf and storm surge will be a consideration for parts of southern Newfoundland tonight, especially near high tide this evening. Over the southern Avalon Peninsula, swells of 6 to 8 metres are possible nearest to where Chris makes landfall, giving some storm surge, but mainly heavy pounding surf. Elsewhere, other southern facing coastlines of Newfoundland could see 3 to 5 metres of swells tonight. A special weather statement is in effect for the southern Avalon Peninsula, and the south facing half of the Burin Peninsula.

The Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia will have swell near 2 to 3 metres west of Halifax this morning, and 3 to 4 metres further east, but will gradually diminish tonight and Friday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

In general the strongest winds from Chris will be just south of its track as it moves through Atlantic Canadian waters. For Maritimes waters, storm warnings and gale warnings are in effect for waters closest to Chris’ track. These warning will likely end later today as Chris moves out of the region.

For Newfoundland waters, Storm and gale warnings are in effect for waters near and adjacent to Chris’ track.

Significant wave heights could reach near 10 metres over offshore waters near the track of Chris as it moves through the Canadian marine district.

Forecaster(s): Borgel/Mercer

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2018 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHRIS is currently located near 42.1 N 60.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). CHRIS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St John’s (47.5 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

United States

WTNT23 KNHC 121456
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018
1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2018

THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 57.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT……. 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 360SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 57.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.4N 59.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 47.7N 52.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 50.7N 44.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 130SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 53.5N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 130SE 110SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 56.5N 26.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 61.6N 18.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 57.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
OTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT
CANADA/CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

FZNT01 KWBC 121015
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC THU JUL 12 2018

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
AMERICAN ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 14.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM CHRIS NEAR 42.1N 60.1W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 12
MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 30 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE
QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…130 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 90 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT…300 NM SE QUADRANT…360 NM SW QUADRANT AND 150 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 43N BETWEEN
54W AND 65W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS NEAR 49.0N 48.0W
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE
QUADRANT…110 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N…120 NM E…600 NM S…AND 240 W
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 43N TO 52N BETWEEN
41W AND 55W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS NEAR 54.5N 30.0W
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 420 NM S AND 480 NM W
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 43N TO 55N BETWEEN
35W AND 42W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS NEAR 60.0N 20.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS NEAR 60.5N 16.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 61N53W 1004 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. FROM 57N TO 61N BETWEEN 47W
AND 62W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N40W 999 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E…300 NM S
AND 420 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 54N39W TO 49N50W TO 44N54W AREA
OF S TO SW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 49N TO 53N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W AREA OF SW
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 300 NM S OF A LINE FROM 61N49W TO
57N42W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N66W 1015 MB. FROM 31N TO 39N BETWEEN
63W AND 66W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 46N TO 60N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W AND FROM 43N TO 53N
BETWEEN 43W AND 58W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 480 NM S OF A LINE FROM
55N35W TO 53N42W TO 51N51W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N38W 1034 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N40W 1032 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 47N49W 1030 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N73W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU JUL 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI JUL 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 14.

.WARNINGS.

…CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING…
.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E WINDS 25
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W
AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. FROM 12.5N TO
16N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E
SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W…
INCLUDING GULF OF VENEZUELA…NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO
15.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 78W E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 83W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
FROM 10N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 83.5W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC TROUGH FROM 27N79W TO 30N71W. S OF TROUGH TO 26N BETWEEN
69W AND 74W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH TO SHIFT N OF 30N WITH ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONS N OF AREA. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC FROM 19N TO 25N E OF 36W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 18.5N TO 26N E OF 43W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.

.ATLC 18 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W…INCLUDING
ATLC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

CANADA

Go here:
https://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html

=============================================================================

East Pacific/ Mexico: CAT3 HURRICANE ALETTA 02E 08/0600Z near 15.6N 110.5W, moving W ~5.2kt 957mb Intensifying (NHC FL) – Published 08 Jun 2018 0735z (GMT/UTC)

June 8, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Hurricane Aletta 02E

…ALETTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE…There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect….NHC

Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions expected parts of coast of west-central mainland Mexico and the west coast of Baja California Sur

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL US

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 080556
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Aletta Special Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018

…ALETTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE…

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT…0600 UTC...INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.6N 110.5W
ABOUT 470 MI…760 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI…360 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Aletta was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 110.5 West. Aletta is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west-northwestward or
northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Aletta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
expected through the day today. Weakening is forecast to begin by
Saturday, with Aletta likely weakening to a tropical storm on
Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Aletta will begin to affect portions of
the coast of west-central mainland Mexico and the west coast of
Baja California Sur later today and will continue through the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Other

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0555

WTPZ22 KNHC 080555 RRB
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

FZPN02 KWBC 080525
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI JUN 08 2018

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC JUN 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 10.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 46N173E 990 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 360 NM N…780 NM
E…900 NM SE…AND 300 NM SW QUADRANTS…AND WITHIN 240 NM SE
OF A FRONT FROM 39N174E TO 34N160E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN WEAKENING LOW 46N177W
998 MB AND NEW LOW 48N167W 992 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE…600 NM
SE…960 NM SW…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS OF NEW LOW AND WITHIN
420 NM SW QUADRANT OF WEAKENING LOW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N164W 994 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NE…1200 NM
SE…420 NM SW…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
8 TO 15 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 52N142W 992 MB DRIFTING E. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 360 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM E…780 NM S…AND 720 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N140W 1004 MB. WITHIN 660 NM S AND 240
NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N137W 1012 MB. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

…GALE WARNING…
.OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 35N124W TO 30N121W AREA
OF NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W AREA OF
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 38N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W AREA OF
NW TO N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 63N BETWEEN 167W AND 170W AREA OF N
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 65N BETWEEN 168W AND 170W AREA OF NW TO N
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NW AND W OF A LINE FROM 65N166W TO 63N170W
AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 55N135W TO 49N128W AREA
OF SE TO S WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N161E 1001 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 50N159E 1009 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM
AND 420 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 35N TO 48N W OF 169E
AREA OF SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 120 NM OF
39N128W AND FROM 38N TO 48N BETWEEN 170W AND 172E AND OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 44N TO 48N W OF 162E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 90 NM OF 38N125W AND FROM 37N
TO 48N BETWEEN 156W AND 173W AND FROM 42N TO 47N W OF 169E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
47N152W TO 40N160W AND FROM 41N TO 49N W OF 175E.

.HIGH 32N159W 1025 MB MOVING NE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N149W 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N142W 1030 MB.

.HIGH 30N136W 1025 MB DRIFTING W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N167E 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N177E 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI JUN 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT JUN 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 10.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.HURRICANE ALETTA NEAR 15.6N 110.3W 973 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 08
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E
SEMICIRCLE…120 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE…270 NM SE…210 SW AND
180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALETTA NEAR 16.6N 111.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NE…
210 SE…180 NM SW AND 210 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE…330 NM SE…210 SW AND 240 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 105W AND 112W AND FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALETTA NEAR 17.8N 113.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLES. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 240 NM E AND 180 W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE…360 NM SE…240 SW AND 270 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 94W AND 113W AND FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALETTA NEAR 19.1N 115.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA NEAR 20.0N 117.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ALETTA NEAR 20.5N
119.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 04N134W TO 03.4S100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 07N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE WITH ALETTA…S OF 24N
BETWEEN 100W AND 135W AND ALSO FROM 14N TO 25N W OF 135W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N98W 1008 MB.
WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN
SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
13N101W 1005 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8
FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC FRI JUN 8…

.HURRICANE ALETTA…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM NE AND
180 NM SE QUADRANTS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 10N100W, RESUMES FROM 10N116W TO
06N125W. ITCZ FROM 06N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC JUN 08 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 09 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 10 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROUGH FROM 24N176E TO 17N175E TO 13N173E MOVING W SLOWLY.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 17N TO 22N
BETWEEN 175E AND 179E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 23N173E TO 16N172E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 08N178E TO 05N176E TO 03N173E MOVING W 10 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 173E AND
178E…AND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 177W AND 179W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 09N172E TO 04N167E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAK TROUGH FROM 10N167E TO 06N164E.

.RIDGE FROM 30N171W TO 27N175E TO 24N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.12 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 147W AND 151W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 09N TO 18N E OF
154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 22N E OF
164W…AND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 160W AND 163W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 148W
AND 154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 150W
AND 160W…AND FROM 12N TO 20N E OF 150W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 06N140W TO 07N145W TO 06N158W TO 07N171W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 168W.

.FORECASTER KINEL. HONOLULU HI.=

=============================================================================

Oman/ Yemen/ Somalia/ Saudi Arabia: Tropical Cyclone/ ESCS MEKUNU 02A 251500Z near 116.7N 54.2E, moving NNW 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 24 May 2018 1845Z (GMT/UTC)

May 25, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone/ EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (ESCS) MEKUNU (02A)

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Will landfall soon near Salalah, Oman

Yemen, Somalia & Saudi Arabia be aware.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 32 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu) Warning #15
Issued at 25/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 16.4N 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 54.3E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 17.4N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 18.3N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 18.8N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 19.1N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 54.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250941Z AMSR-2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 15-NM
EYE. BASED ON THE RECENT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AND IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 02A
IS APPROACHING THE OMAN COAST THUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SALALAH
ARE INDICATING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 34 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS AS OF 25/1250Z. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
25/18Z AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND, TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AS A
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z,
260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 26
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (ESCS) ‘MEKUNU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA – ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SIX ISSUED AT 1700 UTC OF 25TH MAY, 2018 BASED ON 1500
UTC OF 25TH MAY, 2018.
THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MEKUNU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 10 KMPH DURING PAST
06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, 25TH MAY 2018 OVER
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.60N AND LONGITUDE 54.00E, CLOSE
TO SOUTH OMAN-SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS (ABOUT 50 KM SOUTH OF SALALAH
(41316)). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH
OMAN-SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS CLOSE TO SALALAH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH WIND SPEED 170-180 GUSTING TO 200 KMPH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES
INDICATE THAT UPPER HALF OF THE EYE WALL REGION IS ENTERING INTO LAND.
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE
25/1500 16.6/54.0 170-180 GUSTING TO 200 EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM
25/1800 17.0/53.8 150-160 GUSTING TO 180 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/0000 17.5/53.5 130-140 GUSTING TO 155 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/0600 18.0/53.2 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/1200 18.6/52.7 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
27/0000 19.4/52.0 35-45 GUSTING TO 55 DEPRESSION
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 25TH MAY 2018, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T5.0. THE CLOUD SHOWS EYE PATTERN. ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LIE OVER AREA BETWEEN LATTITUDE 13.0 DEG N & 20.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 50.0 DEG. E
TO 57.0 DEG. E. MINIMUM CTT IS MINUS 93 DEG. C.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 962 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA IS
PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com
STROM SURGE GUIDANCE:
STROM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 METERS HEIGHT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS
VERY LIKELY TO INUNDATE THE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE LANDFALL POINT DURING
NEXT SIX HOURS.
REMARKS:
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 30-31 DEG C OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
THERE IS POSITIVE SST ANOMALY OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 70-90 KJ/SQ. CM TO THE LEFT FORWARD SECTOR OF
THE PREDICTED TRACK. HOWEVER, IT IS RELATIVELY LOW, AROUND 60-70 KJ/SQ. CM TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREDICTED TRACK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG 200N TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND HENCE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 250X10-6
PER SEC TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ABOUT 50 X10-5 PER SEC TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 PER SEC TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME LOW (5-10 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA DURING
PAST 6 HOURS LEADING TO SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EVEN THOUGH THERE IS DECRESE IN
RATE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INCURSION TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERATION.
THE STEERING WINDS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS SOUTH OMAN–SOUTHEAST YEMEN COAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSHPERIC LEVEL LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
(D. R. Pattanaik)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC NEW DELHI

www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com

OMAN

http://www.met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/home/

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

Other

🌀 Cyclone #Mekunu (Cat 3)
🛰️ near landfall (Oman) #WindMapApp https://t.co/gx0aC91Rse pic.twitter.com/urTNttnetR

— عبدالإله الجهني☇ (@1437_gh) May 25, 2018

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

Quoting @nccdoman Evacuation of the Civil Defense Center in #Salalah to Salalah Air Base due to increase in water level.#Mekunu #Cyclonemekunu

— Merge 104.8 (@radiomerge) May 25, 2018

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 251800

WTIN01 DEMS 251800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 25 MAY 2018.

PART-I STORM WARNING
THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MEKUNU OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1430 HRS IST OF TODAY, 25TH MAY
2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 54.4 DEG E, ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS
AND 100 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH(OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH OMAN-SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS
BETWEEN 53 DEG E AND 54 DEG E CLOSE TO SALALAH, AROUND MIDNIGHT OF
TODAY, THE 25TH MAY, 2018 AS AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH
WIND SPEED 160-170 GUSTING TO 190 KMPH.

PART:-II
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER ANDAMAN
SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL AROUND 28TH MAY.

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/40 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E
OF 67 DEG E TO 76 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 76 DEG E: SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 11)W OF 60 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E 3-6 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2-3.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE E
OF 65 DEG E TO 73 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 73 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 11)W OF 60 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 6 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E: 2.5-4 MTR (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)
3)REST AREA: 2-2.5 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E
CYCLONIC 45-90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE
E OF 65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 57 DEG E TO N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 67 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 57 DEG E TO N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 67 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 70 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2-3.5 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY TO THE E OF 63 DEG E TO 70 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO BEC CYCLONIC
10/20 KTS TO THE S OF 14 DEG N (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 58 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E TO S OF 15 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 58 DEG E: 8-6 NM(.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E TO S OF 15 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 60 DEG E 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 91 DEG E (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N : SW-LY 10/25 KTS BEC 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 93 DEG E
(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 90 DEG E 2-3 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 86 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 86 DEG E: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE
N OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: 2-3.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 19 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 19 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-1.5 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SW-LY 05/20 KTS BEC S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE N OF 17 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 15 DEG N TO W OF 92 DEG E : 2-3.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 0.5-2 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

=============================================================================

Fiji/ Tonga: Tropical Cyclone KENI 19P, 13F 101500Z position near 22.1S 177.6W, moving SE 25kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Apr 2018 1520z (GMT/UTC)

April 10, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone KENI (19P, 13F)

Mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa currently (Fiji Intensity Category 3) = approx equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Keni) Warning #08
Issued at 10/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 21.1S 178.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.7W
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 25.2S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 34 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 31.1S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 37 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 38.2S 167.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 177.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 19P NO LONGER HAS AN EYE FEATURE AND THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
101011Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON A WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS TC 19P
RAPIDLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 19P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

Mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa expected by 6 pm April 9 UTC

(Fiji Intensity Category 2)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone KENI

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 32 issued 1300 UTC Tuesday 10 April 2018

Current and Past Cyclone Details

Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)

	Current Location and Intensity Number
	Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
	Destructive Storm Force Winds
	Damaging Gale Force Winds
	Past Track and Movement
	Past Location and Intensity Number

	Forecast Location and Intensity Number
	Very Destructive Wind Boundary
	Destructive Wind Boundary
	Gale Force Wind Boundary
	Most Likely Future Track
	Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

Details:

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 pm April 10	3	20.9S	179.0W	85
+6hr	6 pm April 10	3	22.4S	177.1W	110
+12hr	12 am April 11	2	24.8S	175.0W	140
+18hr	6 am April 11	2	27.2S	173.0W	165
+24hr	12 pm April 11	2	30.8S	171.2W	195
+36hr	12 am April 12	1	38.3S	167.9W	255
+48hr	12 pm April 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	12 am April 13	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	12 pm April 13	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 100852 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6S
179.1E AT 100600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND
HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 21 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM
STEERED TO SOUTHEAST BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE WITH LG SURROUND GIVING DT OF
4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 21.3S 178.8W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 23.4S 176.7W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.6S 174.8W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 30.4S 173.5W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 101400 UTC.

FIJI

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:00pm on Tuesday the 10th of April 2018

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MATUKU, TOTOYA AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU
GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVIT GROUP AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PARTS OF FIJI. For more information, refer
to the latest Special Weather Bulletin on Flood issued by RSMC, Nadi at
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20016.txt

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3
SOUTH 179.6 EAST OR ABOUT 100 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU AND ABOUT
270KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADAVU AT 9:00 pm. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 130 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185
KM/HR. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 45 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 KILOMETRES
SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 11:00 am TOMORROW AND ABOUT 1200 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST
OF ONO-I-LAU AT 11:00 pm TOMORROW.

FOR ONO-I-LAU:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 130KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH STORM SURGE OF MORE THAN 2 METERS COULD BE EXPECTED
OVER COASTAL AREAS.

FOR MATUKU, TOTOYA AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU GROUP:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 80KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
110KM/HR.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASING FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN GRADUALLY EASING
FROM TOMORROW. FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA .FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 50 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
80KM/HR. WINDS EASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH FROM TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY
AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVIT GROUP . RAIN EASING FROMTOMORROW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES OVER ELSEWHERE.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS LIKELY.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WITH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 2:00 AM TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLIER.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Apr, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone KENI is currently located near 21.1 S 178.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KENI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KENI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nuku’ alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

Other

(Above image: @wunderground)

* #Fiji/#Vanuatu/#Tonga: #CycloneKeni #Keni / #91P #TD13F #TCKeni
– Cyclone name has been changed from #CycloneKala / #Kala to #CycloneKeni / #Keni. NOT CLEAR why the last minute change today.
– BLOG/MAPShttps://t.co/Y8YgxIEUjs pic.twitter.com/toPS7mNLjs

— DoctorAdvice4u (@RoshinRowjee) April 8, 2018

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / HURRICANE_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 1200

WHPS01 NFFN 101200
HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 101254 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9 SOUTH 179.0
WEST AT 101200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.9S 179.0W AT 101200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.8S 175.0W AT 110000 UTC
AND NEAR 30.8S 171.2W AT 111200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 031.

STORM WARNING 027 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 091322 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3
SOUTH 173.6 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.3S 173.6E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
65 KNOTS BY 110000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.8S 175.8E AT 100000 UTC
AND NEAR 20.1S 179.6E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

FIJI

Extracted from Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENIISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:00pm on Tuesday the 10th of April 2018

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

=============================================================================

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone MARCUS (15S) 221500Z position nr 18.1S 106.2E, moving SSW 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 22 Mar 2018 1435z (GMT/UTC)

March 22, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Severe Tropical Cyclone MARCUS

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken well away from the WA mainland. It should continue to weaken as it moves further south – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Marcus) Warning #28
Issued at 22/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z — NEAR 17.6S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 106.3E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 19.8S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 22.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 24.9S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 26.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 30.4S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18 NM EYE WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 221139Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC 15S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DECENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS
(28C). TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS TC 15S WEAKENS DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus

Issued at 8:58 pm AWST Thursday 22 March 2018. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken well away from the WA mainland. It should continue to weaken as it moves further south.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 215 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 295 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 17.6 degrees South, 106.2 degrees East , 960 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and 1120 kilometres northwest of Carnarvon .
Movement: south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken as it continues to move towards the south southwest, well away from the WA mainland. During Friday Marcus will move more southward as it continues weakening. Marcus is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday, well off the west coast of WA.

Hazards:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus is well away from the WA mainland and is not expected to directly affect WA communities.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm March 22	5	17.6S	106.2E	30
+6hr	2 am March 23	4	18.7S	105.8E	50
+12hr	8 am March 23	4	19.8S	105.7E	70
+18hr	2 pm March 23	3	21.1S	105.7E	95
+24hr	8 pm March 23	3	22.4S	105.9E	120
+36hr	8 am March 24	2	24.8S	106.7E	155
+48hr	8 pm March 24	1	26.4S	107.2E	190
+60hr	8 am March 25	1	27.7S	107.5E	225
+72hr	8 pm March 25	tropical low	29.4S	108.7E	265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Friday

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Other

si201815_5day M 22 WUND

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:18S106E999:11:00
PANPAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1247UTC 22 MARCH 2018

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude seventeen decimal six south (17.6S)
longitude one hundred and six decimal two east (106.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 115 knots
Central pressure: 928 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 115 knots near the centre easing to 75 knots by 1200 UTC 23
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre, contracting to within
30 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 22 March with very high to phenomenal
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 70 nautical miles of centre, contracting to within
50 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 22 March with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in NW quadrant, with rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 19.8 south 105.7 east
Central pressure 947 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 22.4 south 105.9 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 22 March 2018.

WEATHER PERTH
================================================================================

Vanuatu/ New Caledonia/ New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone Hola (12P) 10/1500Z position nr 26.3S 173.1E, moving SE 27kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Mar 2018 1525z (GMT/UTC)

March 10, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone Hola (12P)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 27 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Hola) Warning #17
Issued at 10/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 25.3S 172.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 145 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 172.5E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 29.1S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 32.2S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 35.6S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 173.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM NORTHEAST
OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION GETTING
SHEARED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATED POLEWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHICH IS
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS) AND COOL
SSTS (26C AND DROPPING). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 101052Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND THE PGTW
DVORAK FIX OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD, STEERED BY THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, AND RAPIDLY
DECAY. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO ETT BY TAU 12 AND
TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD BY TAU 36 AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

…

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone HOLA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 22 issued 1329 UTC Saturday 10 March 2018

Current and Past Cyclone Details

Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)

	Current Location and Intensity Number
	Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
	Destructive Storm Force Winds
	Damaging Gale Force Winds
	Past Track and Movement
	Past Location and Intensity Number

	Forecast Location and Intensity Number
	Very Destructive Wind Boundary
	Destructive Wind Boundary
	Gale Force Wind Boundary
	Most Likely Future Track
	Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

Details:

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 pm March 10	2	25.4S	172.4E	110
+6hr	6 pm March 10	2	27.2S	173.4E	140
+12hr	12 am March 11	2	29.0S	174.2E	165
+18hr	6 am March 11	1	30.5S	174.7E	195
+24hr	12 pm March 11	1	31.9S	175.0E	220
+36hr	12 am March 12	tropical low	34.7S	176.2E	280
+48hr	12 pm March 12	tropical low	37.1S	179.4E	345
+60hr	12 am March 13	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	12 pm March 13	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone HOLA Category 2

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 22 issued 1330 UTC Saturday 10 March 2018

Note: the past cyclone track may be adjusted on the basis of later information. The forecast track is considered the most likely based on the information available at time of analysis, and there may be other possible future tracks.

		Warning: Gales or stronger within 24 hours				Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
		Alert: Gales or stronger within 24-48 hours				Destructive Storm Force Winds
						Damaging Gale Force Winds

For the 24 hr and 48 hr positions, the three radii represent the extent of Hurricane, Storm and Gale winds away from the centre.

Name:		Tropical Cyclone HOLA
Situation At:		1200 UTC Saturday 10 March 2018
Location:		25.4S, 172.4E
Recent Movement:		SE at 33 km/h

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

NEW ZEALAND

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0343 UTC 10-Mar-2018

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical Cyclone Hola (971hPa, Category 3) was analysed near 21.4S
169.0E (near the Loyalty Islands of New Caledonia) at 1300 New
Zealand time this afternoon and is moving southeast at 14 knots.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC SUN 11-MAR-2018
Tropical Cyclone Hola is expected to track southwards and start to
gradually weaken as well as move out of the tropics on Sunday.The
system is expected to undergo extra-tropical transition as it
approaches 30S later on Sunday.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC WED 14-MAR-2018
Cyclone Hola is expected to be extra-tropical and track close to the
upper North Island of New Zealand on Monday. Another low is located
near 6.7S 160.1E near the Solomon Islands at 1300 New Zealand time
today. This low is expected to track into the northern Coral Sea over
the next few days with the risk of it developing into a tropical
cyclone being LOW, but increasing to MODERATE from Tuesday next week.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Sun 11-Mar-2018

Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 30 for TAFEA province.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 30 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:38pm VUT Saturday 10 March 2018 for
TAFEA province.

At 5:00pm local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone HOLA [966hPa] Category 3
was located at 23.0 degrees South 170.3 degrees East. This is about 130 KM
southwest of Matthew and 235 KM west of Hunter. The system is located
at the bottom center of the square letter K, number 12 (K,12) of the Vanuatu
Cyclone Tracking Map. Severe Tropical Cyclone HOLA moved in an
south southeasterly direction at 47 KM/HR (25 knots) in the past 3 hours.

Winds close to the centre are estimated at 130 KM/HR (70 knots).
Severe Tropical Cyclone HOLA is forecasted to be at
26.5 degrees South 172.7 degrees East within the next 06 hours.

Gale force winds 75 KM/HR (40 knots) are expected to weaken over TAFEA province
in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Storm force winds of 110KM/HR (60 Knots) expected within 35 nautical miles of
the center will weaken as the system continues to track further east southeast
tonight.

Hurricane force winds of 145 KM/HR (85 knots) expected within 30 nautical miles
of the center will also weaken as the system maintains its current track of
movement tonight.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 10 Mar) 24.8S, 171.5E 60 KTS (110 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 11 Mar) 26.5S, 172.7E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 11 Mar) 28.2S, 173.4E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 11 Mar) 29.9S, 174.1E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 12 Mar) 32.7S, 174.9E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 12 Mar) 35.3S, 176.7E 25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5am, 13 Mar) 38.1S, 179.4W 20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5pm, 13 Mar) 42.0S, 173.0W 20 KTS (35 KM/HR)

Seas will remain very rough with heavy to phenomenal swells over TAFEA province.
Heavy rainfalls, thunderstorm and flash flooding over low lying areas and areas
close to the river banks including coastal flooding is still expected over TAFEA
province. Marine strong wind warning is current for Southern, Channel and Central
coastal waters. High seas warning for Vanuatu area south of 18S.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises that all clear for
TAFEA province.
This will be the final warning for this system, unless it turns back.

The warning is also available on the VMGD website: www.vmgd.gov.vu

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Mar, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HOLA is currently located near 25.3 S 172.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). HOLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Gisborne (38.7 S, 178.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Whangarei (35.7 S, 174.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Auckland (36.9 S, 174.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Hamilton (37.8 S, 175.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Hastings (39.6 S, 176.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Other

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 020 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 100059 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 971HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4 SOUTH 169.0
EAST AT 100000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 169.0E AT 100000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
110000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.3S 171.4E AT 101200 UTC
AND NEAR 27.5S 173.3E AT 110000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 019.

NEW ZEALAND

Marine Weather Bulletin for Subtropic

Area 25S to 40S, western boundary from 40S 163E to 29S 170E then to 25S 170E, eastern boundary 170W.

Issued by MetService at 9:06pm Saturday 10 Mar 2018

Forecast valid to 1:00am Monday 12 Mar 2018: Tropical Cyclone HOLA 980hPa centre was located near 22S 170E at 100600 UTC, moving southeast 15kt. Within 480 nautical miles of TC Hola: Clockwise 25kt, with storms and gales as in warning 191.Trough 25S 170E 28S 180 34S 170W moving southeast 15kt. Poor visibility in rain within 120 nautical miles of TC Hola and within 120 nautical miles of trough.

Outlook following 72 hours

Cyclone Hola near 31S 172E moving southeast. Clockwise 25kt to gale over much of area until 131200UTC, with storms near cyclone centre and heavy swells.

TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM WARNING 198
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Copy of STORM WARN issued by NADI at 10-Mar-2018 13:13 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone HOLA [985hPa] centre was located near 25.4 South 172.4 East at 101200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 25.4S 172.4E at 101200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 18 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre with high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 40 nautical miles of centre in the southwest quadrant and within 30 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 190 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 160 nautical miles of centre in the southwest quadrant and within 80 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast position near 29.0S 174.2E at 110000 UTC
and near 31.9S 175.0E at 111200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 191.

Issued at 2:20am Sunday 11 Mar 2018

=============================================================================

Reunion: Tropical Cyclone Dumazile (11S) 061500Z position nr 25.4S 55.1E, moving SE 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 06 Mar 2018 1652z (GMT/UTC)

March 6, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile (11S)

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Dumazile) Warning #17
Issued at 06/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z — NEAR 25.0S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 54.8E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 26.8S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 28.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 30.0S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 32.3S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 39.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME TOTALLY CLOUD-FILLED. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE INITIAL
POSITION HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO POSITION, AIDED ONLY BY A LOW
RESOLUTION 060955Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO
REFLECT AN LLC THAT REMAINS TIGHT DESPITE THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.TC
11S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS.
HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION TO
THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE, FOR NOW, CONDUCIVE AT
28C. AS DUMAZILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SSTS TO COOL RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN ETT BY TAU 36 AND BY TAU 72 WILL
TRANSITION INTO A 40-KNOT COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH AN
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

La Réunion

WTIO31 FMEE 061307
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :69 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 570 SE: 720 SO: 460 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 430 SO: 350 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
24H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
36H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
48H: 08/03/2018 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
60H: 09/03/2018 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 09/03/2018 12 UTC: 40.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2018 12 UTC: 51.0 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.5+
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A CLAIREMENT EVOLUE CET APRESMIDI
VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE ENCORE INCLUS EN
BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. EN SE BASANT SUR L’ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DU CMRS, L’INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 70 KT. EN L’ABSENCE
D’IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES RECENTE, LA POSITION ANALYSEE EST RELATIVEMENT
INCERTAINE.
L’EVOLUTION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE TRADUIT UNE AUGMENTATION
SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D’OUEST. L’IMAGERIE VAPEUR D’EAU SUGGERE
QUE LE SYSTEME INTERAGIT AVEC LE TALWEG D’ALTITUDE PRESENT DANS SON
SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE DES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES EN COURS DE NUIT
PROCHAINE.
LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN CONTOURNANT LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHÈRE. TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, IL
RESTE, JUSQU’EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, EN INTERACTION FAVORABLE AVEC UN
TALWEG D’ALTITUDE SITUE DANS SON SECTEUR OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS (COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION). A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL N’Y A PLUS DE PHASAGE AVEC LA
DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT
AVANT DE SE FONDRE DANS LA CIRCULATION D’OUEST. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. L’INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN FIN D’ECHEANCE,
QUAND LE SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D’OUEST EN
DIRECTION DE L’ILE DE KERGUELEN QUI POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE
DEGRADATION DU TEMPS EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 6 Mar, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DUMAZILE is currently located near 25.0 S 54.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DUMAZILE is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DUMAZILE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Reunion
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

Other

(Above image: @wunderground)

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 061225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO MORE THAN 550 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 230
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 310 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
26.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

QIO26 FIMP 061245

1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII (S) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS, ISSUED ON TUESDAY 06 MARCH 2018 AT 1240 UTC.

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF GALE FORCE.

NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS TOGETHER

WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITH HEAVY SWELLS EXIST IN AREA BOUNDED

BY LATITUDES 20S TO 30S AND LONGITUDES 55E TO 63E.

STRONG GUST UNDER SQUALLS.

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS OBSERVED AT 1200 UTC ON TUESDAY 06 MARCH

2018.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ‘DUMAZILE’ 960 HPA WAS CENTERED NEAR 24.7 S AND 53.9

E MOVEMENT SOUTH SOUTH EASTERLY 08 KT.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05S 60E, 06S 66E, 07S 70E.

WAVE NEAR 11S 69E, 12S 93E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19S 56E, 23S 59E, 26S 57E INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE

‘DUMAZILE’.

ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 18S 59E, 22S 61E, 27S 58E INTO TROPICAL

CYCLONE ‘ DUMAZILE’

REMNANT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM AXIS ALONG 25S 73E, 24S 82E, 25S 90E.

HIGH 1029 HPA NEAR 38S 71E.

PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO WEDNESDAY 07 MARCH 2018 AT 1200

UTC.

WEST 8/1: AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

REMAINDER 8/1: EAST NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 GUSTING

30. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/2: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. SOUTH EASTERLY

TO EASTERLY 15-25 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE IN NORTH, ROUGH IN SOUTH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEM

AXIS, SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS

BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/3: CLOCKWISE 10-15 AROUND WAVE IN NORTH EAST. EASTERLY TO EAST

NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN REMAINING EAST. NORTH WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY

10-20 GUSTING 30 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE BECOMING ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY

ROUGH IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH WEST AND NORTH EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS

ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

8/4: VARIABLE 05-10 IN EXTREME NORTH. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY

10-20 ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME NORTH EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/5: NORTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY . SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

8/6: NORTHERLY TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 05 IN EAST. NORTH WESTERLY TO

WESTERLY 05-10 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY

MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/7: EAST NORTH EASTERLY BACKING TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 10-20. SEA

MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

WIND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN REMAINING 8/1.=

=============================================================================

New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone GITA 192100Z position near 36.5S 168.1E, moving SE 28kt (JTWC) – Updated 19 Feb 2018 2120z (GMT/UTC)

February 19, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone GITA 09P

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

(See updates in comments below)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) Warning #44 Final Warning
Issued at 19/2100Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z — NEAR 35.5S 167.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.5S 167.0E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 39.6S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 43.3S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 36.5S 168.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM
NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE
SOUTH DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GITA IS
NOW ASSESSED AS FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL. DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ASYMMETRIC LLCC STRUCTURE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE VWS AND LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE JET HAS HELPED MAINTAIN THE STRONG CORE WINDS DURING THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55
KNOTS BASED ON THE LARGE SWATH OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS IN A 191125Z
ASCAT PASS. TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST, WITH A VERY GRADUAL DISSIPATION TREND. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

New Zealand

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0301 UTC 19-Feb-2018

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

TC Gita was analysed near 31S 162E at midday today (Monday), outside
the tropics, and is likely to be re-classified into an extra-tropical
cyclone this evening. It is expected to then move towards New Zealand
during the next 24 to 48 hours.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC TUE 20-FEB-2018
Tropical Cyclone Gita is likely to be re-classified this evening and
is forecast to track southeast towards New Zealand as a deep
extra-tropical cyclone.

Meanwhile, a low analysed near 18.0S 157.7W at midday today (Monday),
northwest of the Southern Cook Islands, remains in an unfavourable
environment during the next 3 days and therefore has only very low
chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone during the next 3 days.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC FRI 23-FEB-2018
No significant lows are expected during the outlook forecast period.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Tue 20-Feb-2018

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Feb, 2018 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm GITA is currently located near 35.5 S 167.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). GITA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Zealand
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
New Plymouth (39.1 S, 174.1 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Wellington (41.3 S, 174.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Greymouth (42.5 S, 171.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Christchurch (43.5 S, 172.6 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hastings (39.6 S, 176.8 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Hamilton (37.8 S, 175.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Probability of tropical storm winds to 12 hours lead:

Other

(Image: @underground)

Two Unusual Tropical Cyclones Affect Australia and New Zealand

Dr. Jeff Masters February 19, 2018, 12:10 PM EST

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Marine Weather Bulletin for Subtropic

Area 25S to 40S, western boundary from 40S 163E to 29S 170E then to 25S 170E, eastern boundary 170W.Issued by MetService at 7:54am Tuesday 20 Feb 2018

Forecast valid to 1:00am Wednesday 21 Feb 2018: Former cyclone Gita near 36S 167E moving southeast 30kt. Southwest of line 40S 175W 34S 180 29S 170E: Clockwise 25kt about Gita, with storms and gales as in warning 340, clearing north of 35S by 201200UTC, broad areas heavy clockwise swell, and poor visibility in areas of rain south of low centre.

Outlook following 72 hours
Ridge near 36S 170W, extending northwest, moving slowly east. Former Cyclone Gita expected near 42S 175E at 201200UTC moving southeast. Southwest of ridge: Northerly quarter 20 to 30kt, turning clockwise about Former Cyclone Gita, with storms, gales and heavy swell near Gita. All gradually easing.

STORM WARNING 340
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and FORTIES
AT 191800UTC
Over waters east of western boundary.
Low 976hPa, former Cyclone GITA, near 36S 167E moving southeast 30kt.
1. Within 120 nautical miles of low in western semicircle: Clockwise 50kt easing to 35kt next 6-12 hours.
2. Outside area 1 and within 180 nautical miles of low in northeast quadrant: Clockwise 50kt easing to 35kt next 6-12 hours.
3. Outside areas 1 and 2 and within 240 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 35kt.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 334.

Issued at 7:31am Tuesday 20 Feb 2018

================================================================================

La Reunion/ Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA 06S 191500Z nr 25.7S 52.3E, moving SSW 14Kt (JTWC) – Updated 19 Jan 2018 1905Z (GMT/UTC)

January 19, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA 06S

⚠️ La Reunion beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET- JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) Warning #28
Issued at 19/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay
WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z — NEAR 25.0S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 52.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 27.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 30.4S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 32.2S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 33.0S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 34.7S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE
IMAGERY FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 191157Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH
POINT 06S WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AROUND TAU 12, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
(<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC BERGUITTA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE DUE TO FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGHOUT ETT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//
NNNN

RSMC LA REUNION

ZCZC 245
WTIO30 FMEE 191214 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 52.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SW: 700 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 560 SW: 440 NW: 130
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/22 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/22 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/23 12 UTC: 37.0 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/24 12 UTC: 39.0 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 19 Jan, 2018 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BERGUITTA is currently located near 22.8 S 54.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). BERGUITTA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Reunion
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

(Above image: @wunderground)

Other

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 561
WTIO20 FMEE 181242 CCA
……………CORRECTIVE…………..
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 61.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
22.6 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

=============================================================================

Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone AVA (03S) 082100Z position nr 27.7S 46.8E, moving WSW 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jan 2018 2145z (GMT/UTC)

January 8, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone AVA (03S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) Warning #25
Issued at 08/2100Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 27.3S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 46.8E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 28.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 33.7S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 37.3S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 32 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 46.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 490 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTING THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS)
AND BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BEING OFFSET BY
COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HOWEVER, THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 03S WILL
INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRIOR TO TAU 12,
THE TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WTIH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTH THROUGH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WAS NOT PREDICTED IN THE
MODEL SOLUTION. DUE TO THE INACCURATE PREDICTION OF THE SYSTEMS
INITIAL DIRECTION THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

ZCZC 601
WTIO30 FMEE 081856
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 670 SE: 520 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 46.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/11 18 UTC: 49.2 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AVA’S STRUCTURE REMAINS ATYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM WITH A POOR LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION SEEN ON LATEST MW IMAGERY ALONG WITH DISPLACED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ON THE LATEST MSG1 IMAGERY, AN EXPOSED VORTEX IS SEEN
SOUTH OF FORT-DAUPHIN. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT
GALES FORCE WINDS ARE STILL ASSUMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE TRACK HAS TURNED WESTWARDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT TOMOROW, THE
RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND AVA SHOULD GRADUALLY CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.
A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD IS GRADUALLY
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BECOME INSUFFICIENT.
FROM WEDNESDAY, AVA SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAK, AND SHOULD EVOLVE PROGRESSIVELY IN WARM CORE SECLUSION.
AVA EXTRATROPICALISATION PROCESS IS FORECASTED TO BE ACHIEVE FROM
THURSDAY EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.=
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jan, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AVA is currently located near 27.3 S 46.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). AVA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the French Southern Ocean and Antarctic Lands
        probability for TS is 95% in about 72 hours
    the Heard & McDonald Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 905
WTIO24 FMEE 081841
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
NNNN

=============================================================================

Philippines/ Vietnam: Typhoon Tembin/ Vinta 33W 241200Z nr 8.3N 112.1E, moving W 13kt 975hPa (JMA) – Updated 24 Dec 2017 1438z (GMT/UTC)

December 24, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Tembin (33W)

(Vinta in Philippines)

TYPHOON “VINTA” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR). – PAGASA

TY 1727 (Tembin)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 24 December 2017


<Analysis at 12 UTC, 24 December>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N8°20′ (8.3°)
	E112°05′ (112.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure	975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	NW 390 km (210 NM)
	SE 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N8°25′ (8.4°)
	E109°25′ (109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure	975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N8°30′ (8.5°)
	E106°55′ (106.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle	110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 180 km (95 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N9°25′ (9.4°)
	E102°55′ (102.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure	1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle	180 km (95 NM)

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #29-FINAL
FOR:Typhoon Vinta
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT
ISSUED AT:10:30 AM, 24 December 2017

TYPHOON “VINTA” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

Scattered to widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rains will still prevail over Palawan, especially over the southern section. Residents of these areas must take appropriate actions against flooding and landslides, coordinate with their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates.
Sea travel remains risky over the western seaboard of Palawan due to the Typhoon.

PAGASA Track

Satellite Image

Location of eye/center:	At 9:30 AM today, the eye of Typhoon “VINTA” was located based on all available data at 290 km South of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR) (08.4 °N, 114.2 °E)
Strength:	Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 145 kph
Forecast Movement:	Forecast to move West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions:	24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 585 km West Southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan(8.7°N, 109.3°E)

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.

HIMAWARI Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Dec, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon TEMBIN is currently located near 8.3 N 113.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). TEMBIN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TEMBIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bac Lieu (9.3 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cambodia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Can Tho (10.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Nam Can (8.8 N, 105.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Duong Dong (10.2 N, 104.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Kompong Som (10.6 N, 103.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phnom Penh (11.6 N, 104.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Kracheh (12.5 N, 106.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Kas Kong (11.3 N, 103.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

(Above image: @wunderground)

Tropical Storm Tembin: Philippines rescuers seek victims

The Salvador district is among those badly affected – REUTERS

“Rescuers are searching for victims of a tropical storm in the southern Philippines which has killed some 200 people in mudslides and flash floods.

Rescue teams have yet to reach some of the affected areas on Mindanao island.

About 150 people are still missing after Storm Tembin swept through the region, with another 70,000 displaced from their homes.

The rescue effort is being hampered by continuing heavy rain, power cuts and blocked roads.

In the early hours of Sunday, Tembin, known as Vinta in the Philippines, was south of the Spratly Islands, heading towards southern Vietnam. It had gathered strength, with maximum winds of 120km/h (75 mph).

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he was saddened by the loss of life, adding that the UN was ready to help.

There are fears the death toll will rise further.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is due to visit communities affected by Storm Tembin on Sunday.

Police said 135 people had been killed and 72 were missing in northern Mindanao. Forty-seven were killed and 72 missing in the Zamboanga peninsula. In Lanao del Sur, another 18 died.

Between 40,000 and 60,000 people are reported to be housed in evacuation centres.

The mountain village of Dalama was one of the worst affected places. Houses were buried in mud or engulfed in floodwaters.

“The flood was already close and the people were not able to get out from their homes,” survivor Armando Sangcopan told local TV.

The bodies of eight children were extracted from thick mud in the town of Salvador in Lanao del Norte, the Inquirer reports.

“It’s very painful to see the dead bodies of children, whom we also considered to be our own,” the principal, Ricardo Abalo, told the paper.

Aid workers said people had not heeded warnings to evacuate before Tembin arrived, either because they believed the storm would not be severe or they had nowhere else to go.

Risks of disease

Many victims were swept away from low-lying residential areas when the flash floods and landslides struck.

More deaths were reported in Bukidnon, Iligan and Misamis Occidental.

Andrew Morris, from the UN children’s agency Unicef in Mindanao, said in some areas there were big risks of disease, particularly for children, and restoring clean water supplies would be a priority.

“Lanao del Sur province is the poorest in the Philippines, and in the past seven months there have been around 350,000 people displaced in that province because of fighting,” he told the BBC, referring to battles between government forces and Islamist militants in Marawi.

Meanwhile, Richard Gordon, of the Philippines Red Cross, told the BBC: “We have already provided water and hot food.

“And we’re going to be distributing non-food items – certainly blankets, mosquito nets and certainly hygiene kits for those who are in evacuation centres so that we can alleviate the suffering of many of the folks there.

A week ago, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak hit the central Philippines, killing dozens.

The region is still recovering from Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 5,000 people and affected millions in 2013.” – BBC News

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP22 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1727 TEMBIN (1727) 975 HPA
AT 08.3N 112.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 08.4N 109.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 08.5N 106.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 09.4N 102.9E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Philippines

As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone within Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Ireland/ UK/ North Atlantic: Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA 16/0300Z nr 49.2N 13.3W, moving N 38kt 969mb NHC FL – Updated 16 Oct 2017 0837z (GMT/UTC)

October 16, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA

(Ophelia= to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding (see details below) – NHC

⚠️ Ireland and United Kingdom BEWARE!

National Hurricane Center (FL)

NB: This map (above) uses AST Atlantic Standard Time is 5 hours behind of British Summer Time

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

…OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB…28.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

National Weather Warnings

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Ireland

Latest Update
Storm Ophelia (Ex hurricane), situated over county Galway at 1500 today, is continuing to track northeastwards. It will bring further violent and destructive winds for a time, with gusts of 120 and 150 km/h. Some flooding expected also, due to heavy thundery downpours and storm surges in coastal areas.
There is a danger to life and property.

Winds will gradually abate from the south through this evening and tonight.

Issued:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:02

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 01:00

Explanation of new warning levels

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

Monday 16 October 2017

AMBER WARNING of WIND

for Northern Ireland, SW Scotland, West Wales, Isle Of Man

Between 12:00 Mon 16th and 23:00 Mon 16th

Updated Mon 16th October at 09:58

A spell of very windy weather is expected today in association with ex-Ophelia. Longer journey times and cancellations are likely, as road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected as well as some bridge closures. There is a good chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. Flying debris is likely, such as tiles blown from roofs, as well as large waves around coastal districts with beach material being thrown onto coastal roads, sea fronts and properties. This leads to the potential for injuries and danger to life. This warning has been updated to extend it into parts of north and west Wales and into the extreme southwest of Scotland. The start time has been brought forward to 1200 to cater for southwest Wales but the impacts elsewhere are more likely later in the afternoon and into this evening.

Ex-Ophelia will move northwards across the west of Ireland today bringing some very strong winds to Northern Ireland along with parts of north and west Wales and the extreme southwest of Scotland. Gusts of 55-65 mph are expected widely with 80 mph gusts likely in places. A smaller area of very gusty winds is then likely to run across Northern Ireland from the west with 65-75 mph gusts possible for a short period of time in any one location. Winds are expected to peak across Northern Ireland and north and west Wales this afternoon including this evening’s busy travel period and to peak across southwest Scotland this evening.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND

for Central, Tayside & Fife Highlands & Eilean Siar North East England North West England Northern Ireland SW Scotland, Lothian Borders South West England Strathclyde Wales West Midlands Yorkshire & Humber

Between 10:00 Mon 16th and 23:55 Mon 16th October

Updated Mon 16th October at 10:33

Very strong winds are forecast to affect most western and some central parts of the UK during Monday. These strong winds are forecast in association with the northward track of ex-Ophelia across or near to the west of the British Isles. Southerly winds are most likely to gust between 55 and 65 mph across much of the warning area, especially in the west. There is also the potential for gusts of 80 mph in coastal areas, particularly on the eastern side of Northern Ireland as well as west Wales and the far southwest of Scotland. Please see separate amber warning. The very strong winds will probably extend to parts of northern England along with some southern and central parts of Scotland in the evening as winds veer more southwesterly across the whole warning area.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest and Northeast England.

Updated 13 October at 10:30

Valid from 00:05 on Tue 17th to 15:00 on Tue 17th

A spell of very windy weather is likely on Tuesday in association with ex-Ophelia. Road, rail, air and ferry services might be affected, with a slight chance of longer journeys times and some roads and bridges could close. There is a slight chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time slightly. The northward extent of the warning area across Scotland has been reduced but it has been extended slightly further south across Yorkshire.

00_ukmet_boden002

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 16 Oct, 2017 3:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Hurricane OPHELIA is currently located near 49.2 N 13.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). OPHELIA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OPHELIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Scotland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

OPHELIA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 21 hours lead from 15/0300 UTC

Other

Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 1 Hurricane Ophelia: a Rare and Damaging Storm for Ireland (link)

Channel Islands Doppler Radar

SOURCE: https://www.gov.je/weather/Pages/Radar.aspx

Windy dot com – Interactive, zoomable near real-time wind map (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 160251
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN… AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 70NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT…….150NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 400SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 13.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 60SE 70SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…110NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT…220NE 290SE 290SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 61.9N .1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.2N 13.3W

$$
FORECASTER BERG

=============================================================================

METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0759
WONT54 EGRR 160759
SECURITE

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, LOW 48 NORTH 14 WEST 963 EXPECTED 57 NORTH
07 WEST 980 BY 170000UTC. HURRICANE FORCE 12 WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN 150 AND
200 MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 161000UTC AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE
11 AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 300
MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 170200UTC. WINDS WILL ALSO
REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 AT TIMES
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 350 MILES OF THE
CENTRE UNTIL 161700UTC. LOW 54 NORTH 35 WEST 993 EXPECTED
61 NORTH 36 WEST 985 BY SAME TIME. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM
170700UTC

UKMET HIGH SEAS FORECAST: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast_and_sea/high_seas#area-6

Coastal Forecast

Tide Tables

Inshore Waters

Shipping Forecast

=============================================================================

United States: Tropical Depression NATE 08/1500Z nr 33.1N 87.3W, moving NNE 24mph/21kt 996mb NHC FL – Updated 08 Oct 2017 1800z (GMT/UTC)

October 8, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Depression NATE

HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER- NHC

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

National Hurricane Center (FL)

095409_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

095409_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

095409wpcqpf_sm1

rb_lalo-animated4

natloop_small

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

…HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…33.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39
km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Nate’s center will continue to move inland across the Deep
South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through
Monday.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate
is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the
the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through
this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the
northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from
the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and
northern Georgia into the western Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage	Local Impacts	Local Statement
Jackson, MS	Threats and Impacts	451 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA	Threats and Impacts	722 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Atlanta, GA	Threats and Impacts	1108 AM EDT Sun Oct 8
Tallahassee, FL	Threats and Impacts	1117 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 /1017 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Huntsville, AL	Threats and Impacts	1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Birmingham, AL	Threats and Impacts	1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL	Threats and Impacts	1029 AM CDT Sun Oct 8

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Oct, 2017 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression NATE is currently located near 33.1 N 87.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). NATE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 70% currently

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201716n4

201716n_04

Other

Tropical Storm #Nate kills 22 in #CentralAmerica, heads for #US. #Mexico #Nicaragua #CostaRica #Honduras #Wx #News https://t.co/NoLKJ91OS0

— GOATY’S NEWS (UK) (@Goatys_News) October 6, 2017

#Nate is intensifying as it quickly approaches the Gulf Coast- last chance to prepare for this dangerous #hurricane! https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/JnjYd14Z2L

— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) October 7, 2017

at201716_5day4

at201716_sat4

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Southwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Nate May Hit Mexico and U.S. Gulf Coast as a Strengthening Hurricane

Strengthening Nate Heads into the Gulf and Toward a Saturday Night Landfall

Nate Sweeps Across U.S. Gulf Coast

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 081448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

=============================================================================

Canada/ US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm MARIA 28/1500Z Update from NHC and others -Updated 28 Sep 2017 1717z (GMT/UTC)

September 28, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm MARIA

MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES – NHC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

145714_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

rb_lalo-animated12

145714_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

natloop4

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

…MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.8N 69.3W
ABOUT 365 MI…585 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 400 MI…650 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Maria is
moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and the storm is
expected to accelerate eastward through tonight. A turn back toward
the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is
expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Maria will continue to
move away from the U.S. east coast and pass well to the south of
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east
coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

None

CANADA

track

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

8:37 AM ADT Thursday 28 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Avalon Peninsula Southeast

For Tropical Storm Maria.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 P.M. NDT.

Tropical Storm Maria currently east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. Will accelerate eastward over next few days and track well offshore of Atlantic Canada.

1. Summary of basic information at 9.30 A.M. NDT.

Location: 36.7 north 69.8 west.

about 560 kilometres southeast of New York City.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 km/hour.

Present movement: east-northeast at 13 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 982 mb.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Maria is expected to track well offshore and not have any direct weather impacts on Canadian land areas. Periods of heavy rain are expected over parts of Atlantic Canada today from an unrelated frontal system approaching from the northwest.

a. Wind.

No direct wind impacts are expected over land from Maria as the strongest winds from the storm are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Rain directly associated with Maria is expected to remain well offshore. However, moisture from the storm may feed into a cold front crossing Atlantic Canada today. This will enhance rainfall amounts along the front as it moves southward. The maximum level of enhancement may be over the southern Avalon Peninsula where a heavy rainfall warning is in effect. Once again, indirectly related to Maria.

c. Surge/waves.

There will be some ocean swells along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia today and tomorrow with waves breaking at times above 2 metres. Swells near 2 metres along the southern coast of Newfoundland will persist for a few days. These swells may build to 3-4 metres along the southern Avalon beginning tonight. Dangerous rip currents are also possible and the public should exercise caution until swells subside.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Maria could bring gales to the southern Grand Banks marine areas during its closest approach on Saturday. Seas (mostly swells) may build up to 5 metres over that area late Friday from a combination of both Maria and Hurricane Lee which is farther southeast.

Forecaster: Fogarty/March

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

Other

at201715

at201715_sat1

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 5 Hurricane Maria Hits Dominica

Maria Headed for Catastrophic Hit on Puerto Rico, St. Croix

Maria Slams St. Croix, Rips Across Puerto Rico

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico

More Havoc as Category 3 Maria Plows Northward

Maria’s Forecast Path Edging Closer to Outer Banks

Coastal North Carolina Prepares for Outer Effects of Hurricane Maria

A Brush From Maria: Winds and Storm Surge Rising in North Carolina

Maria Pulling Away From North Carolina; Lee a Major Hurricane

Maria and Lee On the Way Out; New Tropical Depression Possible near Florida

750px-caribbean_general_map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm33

WTNT25 KNHC 281448
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT……. 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT…….180NE 210SE 160SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 70.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 66.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT…160NE 200SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.4N 62.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 180SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.8N 56.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT…140NE 200SE 190SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.3N 48.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT…130NE 230SE 220SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.9N 31.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 69.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Note: See above for 27/1800Z NHC update

CANADA

canadamapwarningstatus_e

For more detail visit: http://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html

=============================================================================

US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm JOSE 20/0900Z nr 38.4N 70.3W, moving NE ~7kt NHC FL – Updated 20 Sep 2017 1200z (GMT/UTC)

September 20, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm JOSE

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

at201712_5day JOSE WUND 20

at201712_sat JOSE WUND 20

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

084730_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind JOSE 20

rb_lalo-animated JOSE GOES SAT.gif

084730_most_likely_toa_34 JOSE

084730WPCQPF_sm JOSE RAIN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.4N 70.3W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The tropical storm watch has been discontinued along the coast of
Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Jose
is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas. For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod…1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket…2 to 4 inches.

These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

Maria Threatens Leeward Islands; Jose’s Surf Will Batter Northeast U.S. Beaches

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 M 20 MARITIME
METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0840

WTNT22 KNHC 200840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE COAST OF
LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH… INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA’S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.1N 69.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.3W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…150NE 130SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.2N 69.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.9W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 70.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

=============================================================================

Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

September 17, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017


<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale	Large
Intensity	–
Center position	N35°20′ (35.3°)
	E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure	980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	SE 190 km (100 NM)
	NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	ALL 500 km (270 NM)

<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale	Large
Intensity	–
Center position	N35°40′ (35.7°)
	E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure	980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	SE 190 km (100 NM)
	NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	ALL 500 km (270 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N40°40′ (40.7°)
	E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure	975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area	NE 410 km (220 NM)
	SW 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N45°50′ (45.8°)
	E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure	970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle	150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area	E 600 km (325 NM)
	W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Mexico: Hurricane NORMA 17E 16/1200Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 16 Sep 2017 1305z (GMT/UTC)

September 16, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

HURRICANE NORMA 17E

HURRICANE NORMA REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

National Hurricane Center (FL)

113432_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind NHC NORMA

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 161129
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
600 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

…HURRICANE NORMA REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…

SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Baja California Peninsula should
monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Norma has been
nearly stationary, but a slow northward motion should begin later
today and continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Norma will begin affecting portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur later
today and continue into early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early Sunday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late Sunday or early Monday.

RAINFALL: Norma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts in excess of 20
inches possible. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening
flash floods.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Other

ep201717_5day NORMA WUND ep201717_sat NORMA WUND

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 EP 15 MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1439

WTPZ22 KNHC 160848 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172017
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO TODOS SANTOS…AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.7N 110.3W

000
FZPN03 KNHC 160945
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT SEP 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN SEP 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON SEP 18.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 19.0N 110.2W 987 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 16
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 0 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS
80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND
70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 20.4N 110.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 S SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180
NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 103W AND 114W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 22.5N 111.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS
TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA
OVER EAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS FROM 16N TO 26N
E OF 116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 23.5N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 24.0N 113.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA NEAR 24.5N 112.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.8N 126.0W 1007 MB AT 0900
UTC SEP 16 MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
TO 18N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 16.1N
126.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 90
NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 17.0N
126.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 121W AND 129W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 17.7N
126.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 18.0N
128.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FIFTEEN-E NEAR
17.0N 130.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16…

.HURRICANE NORMA…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
180 NM E SEMICIRCLE…AND WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM N QUADRANT. SCATTERED MDOERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM TO 180
NM SW QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N101W TO 08N108W…RESUMING FROM
13N129W…TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N134W 1011 MB…TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 360 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 98W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
13N TO 18N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W…AND WITHIN 90 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF 1011 MB LOW PRES.

.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

=============================================================================

Laos/ Vietnam/ Thailand: Severe Tropical Storm DOKSURI 21W 14/1500Z Update from JMA and others – Updated 15 Sep 2017 1830z (GMT/UTC)

September 15, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Severe Tropical Storm DOKSURI 21W

(Please note date and time of forecasts carefully, JMA is the lead agency for this area)

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1719-00 DOKSURI JMA 15.png

rb_lalo-animated DOKSURI SAT.gif

STS 1719 (Doksuri)
Issued at 16:10 UTC, 15 September 2017



Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N18°05′ (18.1°)
	E103°50′ (103.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure	990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area	N 390 km (210 NM)
	S 330 km (180 NM)


Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N19°20′ (19.3°)
	E100°35′ (100.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure	1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)


Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N20°40′ (20.7°)
	E97°40′ (97.7°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle	110 km (60 NM)

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting
Address: No. 4 Dang Thai Than Street, Hoan Kiem District, Ha Noi
Tel: 84-4-38244919; 84-4-38244916; 84-4-82416000
E-mail: vanphong@nchmf.gov.vn

TROPICAL STORM WARNING

TC TRACKS

TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities
Local time (GMT+7)	Date	Position		Classification	Maximum sustained wind
16	Friday, September 15, 2017	17.9	105.3	TS	76 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities
Local time (GMT+7)	Date	Position		Classification	Maximum sustained wind
22	Friday, September 15, 2017	18.4	104.0	TD	52 km/hour
04	Saturday, September 16, 2017	18.7	102.3	L	37 km/hour

Notes for the picture:

Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts

Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts

Possible passing areas of TC center

Past positions of TC

Forecast positions of TC

Past positions of TD

Forecast positions of TD

*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 PM Friday, September 15, 2017

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Sep, 2017 0:00 GMT

Typhoon DOKSURI is currently located near 17.8 N 107.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). DOKSURI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DOKSURI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Laos
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Thailand
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Dong Ha (16.9 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Louangphrabang (19.9 N, 102.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Vientiane (18.0 N, 102.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201721W DOKSURI TSR1

201721W_0 DOKSURI TSR2

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 151500
WARNING 151500.
WARNING VALID 161500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1719 DOKSURI (1719) 990 HPA
AT 18.1N 103.8E THAILAND MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 19.3N 100.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 20.7N 097.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Mexico: Hurricane MAX 14/1500Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 14 Sep 2017 1700z (GMT/UTC)

September 14, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Hurricane MAX

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAX MOVING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
OAXACA – NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

(Images above: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Max Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

…MAX MOVING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
OAXACA…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.3N 99.9W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB…29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch east of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Max was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 99.9 West. Max is moving toward
the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward or east-northeastward
motion at a similar forward speed is expected through Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Max is forecast to cross the
coast of southern Mexico in the hurricane warning area this evening
or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected today before Max reaches the
coast this evening or tonight. Weakening is forecast once Max
makes landfall, and it is expected to dissipate over the mountains
of southern Mexico by late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western
portions of the state of Oaxaca. Maximum amounts locally in excess
of 20 inches are possible over coastal areas of Guerrero. These
torrential rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within
portions of the hurricane warning area, and hurricane conditions
should begin in that area later today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area by this evening,
with hurricane conditions possible tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Hurricane MAX is currently located near 16.3 N 100.4 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). MAX is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MAX is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 6 hours
        probability for TS is 70% within 6 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Acapulco (17.0 N, 99.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 6 hours
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1434

WTPZ21 KNHC 141434 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017
1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 99.9W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 45SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

000
FZPN03 KNHC 141552 CCA
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU SEP 14 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 16.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MAX NEAR 16.3N 99.9W 988 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 14 MOVING
E OR 090 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE…
45 NM SE QUADRANT AND 15 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 23 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MAX INLAND NEAR 16.9N 98.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM NW QUADRANT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 17.2N 109.5W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
14 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…0 NM NW QUADRANT
AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM E AND 300 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 11 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 18.1N 109.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE…180 NM
SE…150 NM SW…AND 60 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 210 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 18.9N 109.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE…210 NM SE…150 NM SW…AND 120 NM NW
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 32 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EXCEPT 240
NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 21.0N 110.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 23.5N 111.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 25.5N 110.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.4N 122.8W 1005 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 14 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 270 NM SE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.7N
124.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.4N 125.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 40 NM
OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 180
NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.6N 125.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN-E NEAR 16.1N 125.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN-E NEAR 16.8N 125.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES 10N136W 1008 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 11N135.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM
SE SEMICIRCLE SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N135.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS…FROM 07N TO 21N BETWEEN 96W AND
129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SOUTHERLY
SWELL. S OF 07N BETWEEN 82W AND 118W…EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SOUTHERLY
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS…FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 102W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SOUTHERLY SWELL. S OF 03.5N BETWEEN 83W AND 120W…EXCEPT
LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
MIXED SOUTHERLY SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND 130W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. S OF 06N BETWEEN
93.5W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S TO SE
SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1400 UTC THU SEP 14…

.HURRICANE MAX…SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM E AND 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLES OF MAX. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL STORM NORMA…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
90 NM NE…150 NM SE…420 NM SW AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS.
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
90 NM E AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLES.

.LOW PRES 10N136W…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 11N82W TO 10N87W TO
14N89W…THEN RESUMES FROM 13N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N136W TO
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S
AND SW OF COASTLINES FROM 04.5N77.5W TO 13N95W.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

=============================================================================

United States: Tropical Storm IRMA 11/2100Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 11 Sep 2017 2145z (GMT/UTC)

September 11, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

TROPICAL STORM IRMA

IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA – NHC

⚠️

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

SPECIAL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FROM NWS

152552_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TS IRMA Adv 51

152552_earliest_reasonable_toa_34 51

activity_loop rb_lalo-animated2

Robins Air Force Base, GA Radar

Wind Probs

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM E OF ALBANY GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM S OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warnings from Fernandina Beach southward, from
the Aucilla River westward, and from Clearwater Beach southward,
including Tampa Bay, have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Flagler/Volusia County line to
Altamaha Sound is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from north of the Suwannee River to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a
turn toward the northwest is expected by Tuesday morning. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over
southwestern Georgia tonight and move into Alabama on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Irma is likely
to become a tropical depression on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

North of Clearwater Beach to Aucilla River…4 t 6 ft
West of Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…1 to 3 ft
Clearwater Beach to Bonita Beach including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft

South Santee River to North of Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Flagler/Volusia County line, including the St.
Johns River…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area into tonight.

Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

South Carolina and north-central Georgia and Alabama into the
southern Appalachians…3 to 6 inches with isolated 10 inches.
Northern Mississippi and southern portions of Tennessee and North
Carolina…2 to 4 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight along the South
Carolina coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage	Local Impacts	Local Statement
Miami, FL	Threats and Impacts	1125 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Charleston, SC	Not currently available	1139 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tallahassee, FL	Threats and Impacts	1141 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 /1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Atlanta, GA	Threats and Impacts	1147 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Birmingham, AL	Threats and Impacts	1124 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Melbourne, FL	Threats and Impacts	233 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tampa Bay Area, FL	Threats and Impacts	456 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Jacksonville, FL	Threats and Impacts	515 PM EDT Mon Sep 11

============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRMA is currently located near 31.5 N 84.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). IRMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Atlanta (33.8 N, 84.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Nashville (36.1 N, 86.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Louisville (38.4 N, 86.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201711N tsr1 irma 11

201711N_0 tsr2 irma 11

=============================================================================

Other

at201711_5day ts irma

at201711_sat ts irma

The two images above are from @wunderground

Ferocious Irma Pounding Florida, But It Could Have Been Worse

No Rest for the Hurricane-Weary: Jose a Potential East Coast Threat

windy.com – interactive animated wind map

Caribbean General Map (Image: Kmusser)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 112035

WTNT21 KNHC 112035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNINGS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD… FROM
THE AUCILLA RIVER WESTWARD… AND FROM CLEARWATER BEACH
SOUTHWARD… INCLUDING TAMPA BAY… HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND IS DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* NORTH OF CLEARWATER BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….360NE 230SE 150SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 390SE 390SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N 85.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…220NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.8N 88.8W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 88.5W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

000
FZNT25 KNHC 112138
OFFN04

NAVTEX Marine Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
538 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available
through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed
Coastal Waters Forecasts…

Southeast Gulf of Mexico

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Irma will continue moving NNW
and and weaken to a depression as it move farther N. A weak
pressure pattern will set up across the Gulf in the wake of Irma
through the remainder of the week. N to NE swell from Irma will
dominate seas across the Gulf through Tue.

.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt
late in the night. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. Slight
chance of showers.
.TUE…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft,subsiding to
3 to 5 ft late in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU NIGHT…S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E after midnight.
Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Farther E,
Hurricane Jose is near 26.4N 69.2W, 973 mb moving N at 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts to 105 kt. Jose is expected
to move to 27.2N 69.0W tonight, to 27.0N 67.7W Tue afternoon, to
26.3N 66.7W Tue night, to 25.3N 66.1W Wed afternoon, to 24.4N
68.6W Thu afternoon, before moving slowly NW thereafter as its
completes this clockwise loop. Swell from Jose will dominate
area waters Tue through Fri.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and SW 20 to 25 kt
N of 27N. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE…W winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 15 to 20 kt N of
27N. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT…SW winds less than 5 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 10 to
15 kt N of 27N. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED…S of 27N,SW to W winds less than 5 kt, shifting to N late
in the afternoon. N of 27N,SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E to
SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in NE swell.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT…N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.
.SAT NIGHT…NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.

=============================================================================

Mexico/ Gulf of Mexico: CAT2 Hurricane KATIA 07/0600Z nr 21.6N 94.7W, moving ESE 2kt (NHC FL)- Published 07 Sep 2017 0810z (GMT/UTC)

September 8, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

HURRICANE KATIA

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN..
could be near major hurricane strength at landfall..NHC

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO
* SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Brownsville, TX Radar

Catedral Radar Mexico

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…21.0N 95.8W
ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI…205 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco
* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 95.8 West. Katia is moving
toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through landfall within the hurricane warning
area early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected and Katia
could be near major hurricane strength at landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the
north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and
Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi,
western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are
possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San
Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by tonight or early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by
later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin/Bann

NNN

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2017 15:00 GMT

Hurricane KATIA is currently located near 21.0 N 95.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KATIA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KATIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

=============================================================================

Triple Trouble: Cat 5 Irma, Cat 3 Jose, Cat 1 Katia

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0250

WTNT23 KNHC 081432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO
* SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT……. 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT……. 50NE 60SE 55SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 95.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.6N 96.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.7N 97.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.1N 98.4W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 95.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CARBIN/BANN

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 081504
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-090315-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Hurricane Katia centered near 21.0N 95.8W 975 mb at
11 AM EDT moving WSW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts
105 kt. Katia is forecast to move to near 20.6N 96.4W this
evening, with maximum sustained wind of 85 kt gusts to 105 kt,
and inland near 19.7N 97.4W by early on Tuesday, with maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt. Katia will gradually weaken
as it moves further inland through Tuesday night. Major
Hurricane Irma is forecast to enter the eastern Straits of
Florida Saturday afternoon, then turn northward across the
Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday, bringing tropical
storm force and possibly hurricane force winds to eastern
portions of the Straits of Florida and Florida Bay in the far SE
Gulf late Sat into Sun.

GMZ011-090315-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON…N to NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.

GMZ013-090315-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

GMZ015-090315-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NE winds 20 to
25 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 27N, N to
NE winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 35 to 40 kt late.
Elsewhere, NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 11 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 27N, N winds 40 to
50 kt. Elsewhere, NE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming N to NE 35 to
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.TUE…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

GMZ017-090315-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in mixed
NE and SW swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

GMZ019-090315-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

GMZ021-090315-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N to NE winds
20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida,
N to NE winds 40 to 45 kt, becoming N 55 to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida,
NW to N winds 85 to 105 kt. Seas 17 to 19 ft. Elsewhere, N winds
30 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Straits of Florida, NW to
N winds 50 to 55 kt, becoming NW 30 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 19 ft, subsiding to 10 to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, NW to N winds 35 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 13
ft.
.SUN NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.TUE…SW to W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

GMZ023-090315-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…HURRICANE CONDITIONS. SW to W winds 65 to 75 kt. Seas
14 to 19 ft S of 21N W of 95W, and 16 to 20 ft elsewhere.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 21N W of 95W, SW
to W winds 65 to 75 kt, shifting to S to SW 60 to 70 kt late.
Seas 19 to 22 ft. Elsewhere, SE winds 55 to 60 kt, becoming E 30
to 35 kt late. Seas 15 to 18 ft, subsiding to 9 to 12 ft late.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 21N W of 95W, E
winds 35 to 40 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 to 14 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Elsewhere,
NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in
the afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.MON…NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

GMZ025-090315-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…Within 60 nm of coast of Campeche, E to SE winds 5 to
10 kt, shifting to SW towards evening. Elsewhere, SE to S winds
10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less Within 60 nm
of coast of Campeche, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

Forecaster Aguirre

=============================================================================

Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Gert 17/1500Z nr 43.2N 50.0W, moving ENE 35 knots(NHC FL) – Updated 17 Aug 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

August 17, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

HURRICANE GERT

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

……..GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY……NHC FL

⚠️ Life-threatening surf and
rip currents will continue to affect the NE coastof US and Atlantic Canada through
tonight.

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

…GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…43.2N 50.0W
ABOUT 685 MI…1100 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH…65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 50.0 West. Gert is moving toward
the east-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast
of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

=============================================================================

CANADA

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

8:55 AM ADT Thursday 17 August 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Newfoundland

For Hurricane Gert.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 p.m. NDT.

Hurricane Gert will race across the Southern Grand Banks today with no direct impacts to Canadian land areas. Hurricane force winds are not expected over the Grand Banks.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:30 a.m. NDT.

Location: Near 42.3 North 51.7 West.

About 497 kilometres south-southeast of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: East-northeast at 76 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 972 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A special weather statement highlights the possibility of abnormal variations in the tides.

a. Wind.

Any significant winds from Gert are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Some moisture from Gert will feed into an approaching non-tropical weather system near eastern Newfoundland. This system will reach Newfoundland on Thursday and amounts of 25 to 50 mm are forecast over portions of eastern and northern Newfoundland.

c. Surge/Waves.

Long period swells from Gert will reach 2 to 4 metres along south-facing coastlines of Newfoundland later today, with the highest waves likely along the southern Avalon peninsula. These swells could also lead to dangerous rip currents. Significant wave heights of 3 to 5 metres are expected over the Grand Banks on this afternoon. The highest waves from Gert will remain south of Canadian waters.

In addition, Hurricane Gert may cause a series of rapid changes in water levels in harbours and inlets from the Avalon Peninsula north to Trinity Bay for a couple of hours. The most likely time ranges from late this afternoon into this evening. High tide will be occurring late this afternoon for most areas, so there is a risk for minor flooding near and after high tide.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

The latest track for Gert has it passing over the extreme southern Grand Banks today and transitioning to a very intense mid-latitude storm as it passes east of our forecast waters. Gale to storm force winds are expected over southernmost portions of the Grand Banks, with hurricane force winds remaining just south of the Grand Banks. Gale and Storm warnings are in effect for the southern Grand Banks.

Forecaster(s): Mercer/Murtha/Couturier

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Weather Warnings(link)

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Gert Canada

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 150831

WTNT23 KNHC 171433
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 43.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.3N 37.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 51.3N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 52.4N 34.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.2N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150926
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
526 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

Hurricane Gert is centered near 31.8N 72.5W at 15/0900 UTC or
about 375 nm W of Bermuda moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 30N-32N between 70W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 28N-33N between 70W-74W. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde islands associated with a
1012 mb low pressure located near 14N28W. The wave axis extends
from 18N27W to the low to 09N28W and has been moving W at 10 kt.
The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment
limit deep convection. Shallow moisture confined to the vicinity
of the monsoon trough and upper level diffluent wind support
scattered moderate convection SW of the low center from 10N-14N
between 28W-33W. Slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next day or two, but conditions are forecast to become
a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by later in
the week while the system moves westward over the tropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
20N51W to 09N53W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is entering a
region of moderate to strong vertical wind shear and is being
severely affected by extensive Saharan dry air and dust, which is
hindering convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
20N64W to 10N66W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical wind shear and dry air subsidence, which is
hindering deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture observed
in CIRA LPW imagery and upper level diffluent flow ahead of the
wave axis in the N-central Caribbean support isolated showers over
northern Puerto Rico and adjacent waters as well as the Mona
Passage and E Dominican Republic.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 14N28W to 11N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 11N43W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W.
Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are coming off the W
African coast associated with the next tropical wave. The
convection extends from 05N to 11N E of 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 15N between 34W and 46W associated with
a 1012 mb low located near 11N39W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, which along with
dry air subsidence support mainly fair weather conditions.
A broad upper level low is centered just N of the Yucatan
Peninsula, which supports isolated showers there and in the
Yucatan Channel. Diffluent flow in the NW periphery of the low
support similar shower activity off the SE coast of Louisiana and
Mississippi. Winds are gentle to moderate and from the S-SE in the
western half of the basin and light variable elsewhere. The ridge
will remain in place across the Gulf waters the next couple of
days. A surface trough will develop each evening across the
Yucatan Peninsula shifting W to the Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours. Locally higher winds can be expected west of the
trough axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean. Please
see section above. The tropical wave will continue to propagate
westward over Puerto Rico this morning, then will move over
central Caribbean waters tonight. Isolated showers are occurring
ahead of the wave axis over northern Puerto Rico and adjacent
waters, the Mona Passage and E Dominican Republic. This convection
is mainly due to shallow moisture and a diffluent wind environment
aloft associated with an upper level low over central Atlc waters.
A broad upper level low centered just N of the Yucatan Peninsula
support isolated showers in the Yucatan Channel extending to NW
Caribbean waters N of 17N W of 80W. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are over Belize and northern Guatemala associated with the
passage of a tropical wave with axis currently moving across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mexico. Otherwise, fresh to near gale force
winds are in the south-central basin forecast to continue through
Thursday.

…HISPANIOLA…

An upper level low over the central Atlc will drift WSW to the north
and across the Island over the next couple of days. This low aloft
along with the passage of a tropical wave will support scattered
to isolated showers over the Island and adjacent waters through
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Scattered showers and tstms are N of 28N between 70W and 74W associated
with the rainbands of Hurricane Gert centered north of the area.
See Special features for further details. Otherwise, the
remainder basin generally N of 20N is under the influence of the
Azores high, which supports fair weather. For information about
tropical waves, see section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos

West Pacific: Typhoon Banyan 14W 151500Z position 29.3N 162.6E, moving N 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Aug 2017 1350z (GMT/UTC)

August 15, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Banyan 14W

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 14W (Banyan) Warning #11
Issued at 13/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 28.5N 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 162.3E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 31.5N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 35.0N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 29 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 39.2N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 44.0N 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 162.6E.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

TY 1712 (Banyan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 August 2017


<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 August>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N28°20′ (28.3°)
	E162°10′ (162.2°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure	975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area	ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area	E 280 km (150 NM)
	W 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N31°10′ (31.2°)
	E162°55′ (162.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure	980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle	70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N34°40′ (34.7°)
	E166°05′ (166.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure	980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center	30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle	150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area	ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 August>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N43°00′ (43.0°)
	E177°30′ (177.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure	992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle	280 km (150 NM)

Units:
1 kt (knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1 nm (nautical mile) = 1.852 km

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 151200

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1712 BANYAN (1712) 975 HPA
AT 28.3N 162.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 31.2N 162.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 34.7N 166.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 43.0N 177.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Mexico: Tropical Storm Franklin – ⚠️ Hurricane Warning for MX coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL) – Published 09 Aug 2017 1040z (GMT/UTC)

August 9, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm Franklin

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco (NHC FL)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen (NHC FL)
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo (NHC FL)

Traducción al español (haga clic aquí)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

…FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN is currently located near 20.4 N 92.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). FRANKLIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Coatzacoalcos (18.2 N, 94.4 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

Landfall #2 Coming Up: Franklin Enters Bay of Campeche (Category 6 website)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0837

WTNT22 KNHC 090837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF RIO PANUCO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO BARRA DEL TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM BARRY AL02

………BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST… …DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…..Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana coast during the next several hours..NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

SEE UPDATES IN COMMENTS AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

NWS radar Image from New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

Local Products

TROPICAL STORM RISK University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 13 Jul, 2019 9:00 GMT

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the United States probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours probability for TS is 100% currently

Other

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Offshore Waters Forecast (Gulf of Mexico)

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)

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Intense Tropical Cyclone HALEH (10,17S)

HALEH is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

La Réunion

HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT – RSMC La Réunion

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO20 FMEE 041805 PANPAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.=

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SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA 16P

POLA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and Intensity Category 3 storm on the local Fiji scale

DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU AS TC POLA IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ONO-I-LAU TONIGHT – RSMC Nadi

Fiji and Tonga beware!

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone POLA

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 27 Feb, 2019 12:00 GMT

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WHPS01 NFFN 271200 HURRICANE WARNING 151 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 271307 UTC.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.9S 178.4W AT 280000 UTC AND NEAR 23.5S 178.9W AT 281200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 150.

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Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P

Australian Category 3 intensity = Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Severe TC Owen may reach Australian Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP NT

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Community Threat

Past Cyclone Details

Current Cyclone Details

Forecast Cyclone Details (Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Headline:

Areas affected:

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST:

Hazards:

Recommended Action:

Next Issue

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Community Threat

Past Cyclone Details

Current Cyclone Details

Forecast Cyclone Details (Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Headline:

Areas affected:

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 4:00 pm AEST:

Hazards:

Recommended Action:

Next Issue

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2018 6:00 GMT

MARITIME/SHIPPING

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HURRICANE WILLA 24E

………BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…..Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast during the next several hours..NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT – RSMC La Réunion

WTIO20 FMEE 041805
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
21.3 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

WHPS01 NFFN 271200
HURRICANE WARNING 151 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 271307 UTC.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.9S 178.4W AT 280000 UTC
AND NEAR 23.5S 178.9W AT 281200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

……AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO… – NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

……MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
Johnston Island – CPHC

FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF HECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY – NWS HI