Ireland/ UK/ North Atlantic: Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA 16/0300Z nr 49.2N 13.3W, moving N 38kt 969mb NHC FL – Updated 16 Oct 2017 0837z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA

(Ophelia= to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)


Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding (see details below) – NHC

⚠️ Ireland and United Kingdom BEWARE!

 

National Hurricane Center (FL)

145012_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

NB: This map (above) uses AST Atlantic Standard Time is 5 hours behind of British Summer Time

145012_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

NB: This map (above) uses AST Atlantic Standard Time is 5 hours behind of British Summer Time

rb_lalo-animated18

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

…OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB…28.62 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

National Weather Warnings

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Ireland

Latest Update
Storm Ophelia (Ex hurricane), situated over county Galway at 1500 today, is continuing to track northeastwards. It will bring further violent and destructive winds for a time, with gusts of 120 and 150 km/h. Some flooding expected also, due to heavy thundery downpours and storm surges in coastal areas.
There is a danger to life and property.

Winds will gradually abate from the south through this evening and tonight.

Issued:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:02

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 01:00

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

Monday 16 October 2017

AMBER WARNING of WIND

for Northern Ireland, SW Scotland, West Wales, Isle Of Man

Between 12:00 Mon 16th and 23:00 Mon 16th

Updated Mon 16th October at 09:58

A spell of very windy weather is expected today in association with ex-Ophelia. Longer journey times and cancellations are likely, as road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected as well as some bridge closures. There is a good chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. Flying debris is likely, such as tiles blown from roofs, as well as large waves around coastal districts with beach material being thrown onto coastal roads, sea fronts and properties. This leads to the potential for injuries and danger to life. This warning has been updated to extend it into parts of north and west Wales and into the extreme southwest of Scotland. The start time has been brought forward to 1200 to cater for southwest Wales but the impacts elsewhere are more likely later in the afternoon and into this evening.

Ex-Ophelia will move northwards across the west of Ireland today bringing some very strong winds to Northern Ireland along with parts of north and west Wales and the extreme southwest of Scotland. Gusts of 55-65 mph are expected widely with 80 mph gusts likely in places. A smaller area of very gusty winds is then likely to run across Northern Ireland from the west with 65-75 mph gusts possible for a short period of time in any one location. Winds are expected to peak across Northern Ireland and north and west Wales this afternoon including this evening’s busy travel period and to peak across southwest Scotland this evening.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND

for Central, Tayside & Fife Highlands & Eilean Siar North East England North West England Northern Ireland SW Scotland, Lothian Borders South West England Strathclyde Wales West Midlands Yorkshire & Humber

Between 10:00 Mon 16th and 23:55 Mon 16th October

Updated Mon 16th October at 10:33

Very strong winds are forecast to affect most western and some central parts of the UK during Monday. These strong winds are forecast in association with the northward track of ex-Ophelia across or near to the west of the British Isles. Southerly winds are most likely to gust between 55 and 65 mph across much of the warning area, especially in the west. There is also the potential for gusts of 80 mph in coastal areas, particularly on the eastern side of Northern Ireland as well as west Wales and the far southwest of Scotland. Please see separate amber warning. The very strong winds will probably extend to parts of northern England along with some southern and central parts of Scotland in the evening as winds veer more southwesterly across the whole warning area.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest and Northeast England.

Updated 13 October at 10:30

Valid from 00:05 on Tue 17th to 15:00 on Tue 17th

A spell of very windy weather is likely on Tuesday in association with ex-Ophelia. Road, rail, air and ferry services might be affected, with a slight chance of longer journeys times and some roads and bridges could close. There is a slight chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time slightly. The northward extent of the warning area across Scotland has been reduced but it has been extended slightly further south across Yorkshire.

 

00_ukmet_boden002

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 16 Oct, 2017 3:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Hurricane OPHELIA is currently located near 49.2 N 13.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). OPHELIA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OPHELIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Scotland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201717n6201717n_06201717n_2f

OPHELIA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 21 hours lead from 15/0300 UTC

Other

at201717_5day6at201717_sat6

Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 1 Hurricane Ophelia: a Rare and Damaging Storm for Ireland (link)

Channel Islands Doppler Radar

radar02

SOURCE: https://www.gov.je/weather/Pages/Radar.aspx

Windy dot com – Interactive, zoomable near real-time wind map (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 160251
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN… AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 70NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT…….150NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 400SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 13.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 60SE 70SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…110NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT…220NE 290SE 290SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 61.9N .1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.2N 13.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

=============================================================================

METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0759
WONT54 EGRR 160759
SECURITE

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, LOW 48 NORTH 14 WEST 963 EXPECTED 57 NORTH
07 WEST 980 BY 170000UTC. HURRICANE FORCE 12 WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN 150 AND
200 MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 161000UTC AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE
11 AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 300
MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 170200UTC. WINDS WILL ALSO
REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 AT TIMES
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 350 MILES OF THE
CENTRE UNTIL 161700UTC. LOW 54 NORTH 35 WEST 993 EXPECTED
61 NORTH 36 WEST 985 BY SAME TIME. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM
170700UTC

 

UKMET HIGH SEAS FORECAST: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast_and_sea/high_seas#area-6

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Advertisements

United States: Tropical Depression NATE 08/1500Z nr 33.1N 87.3W, moving NNE 24mph/21kt 996mb NHC FL – Updated 08 Oct 2017 1800z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression NATE

HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER- NHC

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

National Hurricane Center (FL)

095409_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

095409_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

095409wpcqpf_sm1

 

rb_lalo-animated4

natloop_small

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

…HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…33.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39
km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Nate’s center will continue to move inland across the Deep
South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through
Monday.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate
is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the
the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through
this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the
northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from
the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and
northern Georgia into the western Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Jackson, MS Threats and Impacts 451 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA Threats and Impacts 722 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Atlanta, GA Threats and Impacts 1108 AM EDT Sun Oct 8
Tallahassee, FL Threats and Impacts 1117 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 /1017 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Huntsville, AL Threats and Impacts 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Birmingham, AL Threats and Impacts 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL Threats and Impacts 1029 AM CDT Sun Oct 8

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Oct, 2017 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression NATE is currently located near 33.1 N 87.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). NATE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201716n4

201716n_04

Other

 

at201716_5day4

at201716_sat4

 

 

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Southwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Nate May Hit Mexico and U.S. Gulf Coast as a Strengthening Hurricane

Strengthening Nate Heads into the Gulf and Toward a Saturday Night Landfall

Nate Sweeps Across U.S. Gulf Coast

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTNT21 KNHC 081448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Canada/ US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm MARIA 28/1500Z Update from NHC and others -Updated 28 Sep 2017 1717z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm MARIA

MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES – NHC

 

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

145714_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

rb_lalo-animated12

145714_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

 

natloop4

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

…MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.8N 69.3W
ABOUT 365 MI…585 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 400 MI…650 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Maria is
moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and the storm is
expected to accelerate eastward through tonight. A turn back toward
the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is
expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Maria will continue to
move away from the U.S. east coast and pass well to the south of
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east
coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

None

favicon-mobileCANADA

track

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

 

8:37 AM ADT Thursday 28 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

  • Avalon Peninsula Southeast

For Tropical Storm Maria.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 P.M. NDT.

Tropical Storm Maria currently east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. Will accelerate eastward over next few days and track well offshore of Atlantic Canada.

1. Summary of basic information at 9.30 A.M. NDT.

Location: 36.7 north 69.8 west.

about 560 kilometres southeast of New York City.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 km/hour.

Present movement: east-northeast at 13 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 982 mb.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Maria is expected to track well offshore and not have any direct weather impacts on Canadian land areas. Periods of heavy rain are expected over parts of Atlantic Canada today from an unrelated frontal system approaching from the northwest.

a. Wind.

No direct wind impacts are expected over land from Maria as the strongest winds from the storm are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Rain directly associated with Maria is expected to remain well offshore. However, moisture from the storm may feed into a cold front crossing Atlantic Canada today. This will enhance rainfall amounts along the front as it moves southward. The maximum level of enhancement may be over the southern Avalon Peninsula where a heavy rainfall warning is in effect. Once again, indirectly related to Maria.

c. Surge/waves.

There will be some ocean swells along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia today and tomorrow with waves breaking at times above 2 metres. Swells near 2 metres along the southern coast of Newfoundland will persist for a few days. These swells may build to 3-4 metres along the southern Avalon beginning tonight. Dangerous rip currents are also possible and the public should exercise caution until swells subside.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Maria could bring gales to the southern Grand Banks marine areas during its closest approach on Saturday. Seas (mostly swells) may build up to 5 metres over that area late Friday from a combination of both Maria and Hurricane Lee which is farther southeast.

Forecaster: Fogarty/March

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

 

 

 

Other

at201715

at201715_sat1

 

 

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 5 Hurricane Maria Hits Dominica

Maria Headed for Catastrophic Hit on Puerto Rico, St. Croix

Maria Slams St. Croix, Rips Across Puerto Rico

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico

More Havoc as Category 3 Maria Plows Northward

Maria’s Forecast Path Edging Closer to Outer Banks

Coastal North Carolina Prepares for Outer Effects of Hurricane Maria

A Brush From Maria: Winds and Storm Surge Rising in North Carolina

Maria Pulling Away From North Carolina; Lee a Major Hurricane

Maria and Lee On the Way Out; New Tropical Depression Possible near Florida

750px-caribbean_general_map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm33

WTNT25 KNHC 281448
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT……. 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT…….180NE 210SE 160SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 70.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 66.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT…160NE 200SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.4N 62.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 180SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.8N 56.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT…140NE 200SE 190SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.3N 48.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT…130NE 230SE 220SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.9N 31.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 69.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Note: See above for 27/1800Z NHC update

CANADA

canadamapwarningstatus_e

For more detail visit: http://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm JOSE 20/0900Z nr 38.4N 70.3W, moving NE ~7kt NHC FL – Updated 20 Sep 2017 1200z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JOSE

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

at201712_5day JOSE WUND 20

 

at201712_sat JOSE WUND 20

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

084730_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind JOSE 20

rb_lalo-animated JOSE GOES SAT.gif

 

084730_most_likely_toa_34 JOSE

084730WPCQPF_sm JOSE RAIN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.4N 70.3W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The tropical storm watch has been discontinued along the coast of
Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Jose
is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas. For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod…1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket…2 to 4 inches.

These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

 

Caribbean_general_map

Maria Threatens Leeward Islands; Jose’s Surf Will Batter Northeast U.S. Beaches

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 M 20 MARITIME
METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0840

WTNT22 KNHC 200840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE COAST OF
LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH… INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA’S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.1N 69.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.3W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…150NE 130SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.2N 69.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.9W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 70.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

 Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

 

 

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

rb_lalo-animated3

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°40′ (35.7°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°40′ (40.7°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area NE 410 km (220 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°50′ (45.8°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP MARITIME 17

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Hurricane NORMA 17E 16/1200Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 16 Sep 2017 1305z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE NORMA 17E

HURRICANE NORMA REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

National Hurricane Center (FL)

113432_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind NHC NORMA

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 161129
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
600 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

…HURRICANE NORMA REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Baja California Peninsula should
monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Norma has been
nearly stationary, but a slow northward motion should begin later
today and continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Norma will begin affecting portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur later
today and continue into early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early Sunday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late Sunday or early Monday.

RAINFALL: Norma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts in excess of 20
inches possible. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening
flash floods.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Other

ep201717_5day NORMA WUNDep201717_sat NORMA WUND

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 EP 15 MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1439

WTPZ22 KNHC 160848 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172017
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO TODOS SANTOS…AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.7N 110.3W

000
FZPN03 KNHC 160945
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT SEP 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN SEP 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON SEP 18.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 19.0N 110.2W 987 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 16
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 0 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS
80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND
70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 20.4N 110.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 S SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180
NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 103W AND 114W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 22.5N 111.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS
TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA
OVER EAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS FROM 16N TO 26N
E OF 116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 23.5N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 24.0N 113.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA NEAR 24.5N 112.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.8N 126.0W 1007 MB AT 0900
UTC SEP 16 MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
TO 18N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 16.1N
126.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 90
NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 17.0N
126.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 121W AND 129W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 17.7N
126.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 18.0N
128.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FIFTEEN-E NEAR
17.0N 130.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16…

.HURRICANE NORMA…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
180 NM E SEMICIRCLE…AND WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM N QUADRANT. SCATTERED MDOERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM TO 180
NM SW QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N101W TO 08N108W…RESUMING FROM
13N129W…TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N134W 1011 MB…TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 360 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 98W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
13N TO 18N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W…AND WITHIN 90 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF 1011 MB LOW PRES.

$$

.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Laos/ Vietnam/ Thailand: Severe Tropical Storm DOKSURI 21W 14/1500Z Update from JMA and others – Updated 15 Sep 2017 1830z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm DOKSURI 21W

(Please note date and time of forecasts carefully, JMA is the lead agency for this area)

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1719-00 DOKSURI JMA 15.png

rb_lalo-animated DOKSURI SAT.gif

STS 1719 (Doksuri)
Issued at 16:10 UTC, 15 September 2017

Scale
Intensity
Center position N18°05′ (18.1°)
E103°50′ (103.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 390 km (210 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°20′ (19.3°)
E100°35′ (100.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N20°40′ (20.7°)
E97°40′ (97.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting
Address: No. 4 Dang Thai Than Street, Hoan Kiem District, Ha Noi
Tel: 84-4-38244919; 84-4-38244916; 84-4-82416000
E-mail: vanphong@nchmf.gov.vn

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

16 Friday, September 15, 2017 17.9 105.3 TS 76 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Friday, September 15, 2017 18.4 104.0 TD 52 km/hour
04 Saturday, September 16, 2017 18.7 102.3 L 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 PM Friday, September 15, 2017

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Sep, 2017 0:00 GMT

Typhoon DOKSURI is currently located near 17.8 N 107.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). DOKSURI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DOKSURI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Laos
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Thailand
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Dong Ha (16.9 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Louangphrabang (19.9 N, 102.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Vientiane (18.0 N, 102.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201721W DOKSURI TSR1

201721W_0 DOKSURI TSR2

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 151500
WARNING 151500.
WARNING VALID 161500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1719 DOKSURI (1719) 990 HPA
AT 18.1N 103.8E THAILAND MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 19.3N 100.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 20.7N 097.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Hurricane MAX 14/1500Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 14 Sep 2017 1700z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane MAX

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAX MOVING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
OAXACA – NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

(Images above: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Max Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

MAX MOVING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
OAXACA

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.3N 99.9W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB…29.18 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch east of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Max was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 99.9 West. Max is moving toward
the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward or east-northeastward
motion at a similar forward speed is expected through Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Max is forecast to cross the
coast of southern Mexico in the hurricane warning area this evening
or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected today before Max reaches the
coast this evening or tonight. Weakening is forecast once Max
makes landfall, and it is expected to dissipate over the mountains
of southern Mexico by late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western
portions of the state of Oaxaca. Maximum amounts locally in excess
of 20 inches are possible over coastal areas of Guerrero. These
torrential rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within
portions of the hurricane warning area, and hurricane conditions
should begin in that area later today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area by this evening,
with hurricane conditions possible tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Hurricane MAX is currently located near 16.3 N 100.4 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). MAX is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MAX is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 6 hours
        probability for TS is 70% within 6 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Acapulco (17.0 N, 99.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 6 hours
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1434

WTPZ21 KNHC 141434 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017
1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 99.9W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 45SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

000
FZPN03 KNHC 141552 CCA
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU SEP 14 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 16.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MAX NEAR 16.3N 99.9W 988 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 14 MOVING
E OR 090 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE…
45 NM SE QUADRANT AND 15 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 23 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MAX INLAND NEAR 16.9N 98.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM NW QUADRANT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 17.2N 109.5W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
14 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…0 NM NW QUADRANT
AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM E AND 300 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 11 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 18.1N 109.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE…180 NM
SE…150 NM SW…AND 60 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 210 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 18.9N 109.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE…210 NM SE…150 NM SW…AND 120 NM NW
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 32 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EXCEPT 240
NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 21.0N 110.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 23.5N 111.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 25.5N 110.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.4N 122.8W 1005 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 14 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 270 NM SE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.7N
124.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.4N 125.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 40 NM
OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 180
NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.6N 125.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN-E NEAR 16.1N 125.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN-E NEAR 16.8N 125.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES 10N136W 1008 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 11N135.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM
SE SEMICIRCLE SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N135.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS…FROM 07N TO 21N BETWEEN 96W AND
129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SOUTHERLY
SWELL. S OF 07N BETWEEN 82W AND 118W…EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SOUTHERLY
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS…FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 102W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SOUTHERLY SWELL. S OF 03.5N BETWEEN 83W AND 120W…EXCEPT
LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
MIXED SOUTHERLY SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND 130W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. S OF 06N BETWEEN
93.5W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S TO SE
SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1400 UTC THU SEP 14…

.HURRICANE MAX…SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM E AND 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLES OF MAX. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL STORM NORMA…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
90 NM NE…150 NM SE…420 NM SW AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS.
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
90 NM E AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLES.

.LOW PRES 10N136W…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 11N82W TO 10N87W TO
14N89W…THEN RESUMES FROM 13N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N136W TO
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S
AND SW OF COASTLINES FROM 04.5N77.5W TO 13N95W.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

United States: Tropical Storm IRMA 11/2100Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 11 Sep 2017 2145z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM IRMA

IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA – NHC

⚠️

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

SPECIAL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FROM NWS

152552_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TS IRMA Adv 51

 

152552_earliest_reasonable_toa_34 51

activity_looprb_lalo-animated2

southeast_loop

Robins Air Force Base, GA Radar

Wind Probs  

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM E OF ALBANY GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM S OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warnings from Fernandina Beach southward, from
the Aucilla River westward, and from Clearwater Beach southward,
including Tampa Bay, have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Flagler/Volusia County line to
Altamaha Sound is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from north of the Suwannee River to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a
turn toward the northwest is expected by Tuesday morning. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over
southwestern Georgia tonight and move into Alabama on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Irma is likely
to become a tropical depression on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

North of Clearwater Beach to Aucilla River…4 t 6 ft
West of Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…1 to 3 ft
Clearwater Beach to Bonita Beach including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft

South Santee River to North of Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Flagler/Volusia County line, including the St.
Johns River…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area into tonight.

Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

South Carolina and north-central Georgia and Alabama into the
southern Appalachians…3 to 6 inches with isolated 10 inches.
Northern Mississippi and southern portions of Tennessee and North
Carolina…2 to 4 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight along the South
Carolina coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Miami, FL Threats and Impacts 1125 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Charleston, SC Not currently available 1139 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tallahassee, FL Threats and Impacts 1141 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 /1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Atlanta, GA Threats and Impacts 1147 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Birmingham, AL Threats and Impacts 1124 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Melbourne, FL Threats and Impacts 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tampa Bay Area, FL Threats and Impacts 456 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Jacksonville, FL Threats and Impacts 515 PM EDT Mon Sep 11

============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRMA is currently located near 31.5 N 84.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). IRMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Atlanta (33.8 N, 84.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Nashville (36.1 N, 86.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Louisville (38.4 N, 86.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201711N tsr1 irma 11

201711N_0 tsr2 irma 11

=============================================================================

Other

 

at201711_5day ts irma

at201711_sat ts irma

 

The two images above are from @wunderground

Ferocious Irma Pounding Florida, But It Could Have Been Worse

No Rest for the Hurricane-Weary: Jose a Potential East Coast Threat

windy.com – interactive animated wind map

Caribbean_general_map

Caribbean General Map (Image: Kmusser)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 112035

WTNT21 KNHC 112035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNINGS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD… FROM
THE AUCILLA RIVER WESTWARD… AND FROM CLEARWATER BEACH
SOUTHWARD… INCLUDING TAMPA BAY… HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND IS DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* NORTH OF CLEARWATER BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….360NE 230SE 150SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 390SE 390SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N 85.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…220NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.8N 88.8W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 88.5W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

000
FZNT25 KNHC 112138
OFFN04

NAVTEX Marine Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
538 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available
through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed
Coastal Waters Forecasts…

Southeast Gulf of Mexico

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Irma will continue moving NNW
and and weaken to a depression as it move farther N. A weak
pressure pattern will set up across the Gulf in the wake of Irma
through the remainder of the week. N to NE swell from Irma will
dominate seas across the Gulf through Tue.

.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt
late in the night. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. Slight
chance of showers.
.TUE…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft,subsiding to
3 to 5 ft late in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU NIGHT…S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E after midnight.
Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Farther E,
Hurricane Jose is near 26.4N 69.2W, 973 mb moving N at 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts to 105 kt. Jose is expected
to move to 27.2N 69.0W tonight, to 27.0N 67.7W Tue afternoon, to
26.3N 66.7W Tue night, to 25.3N 66.1W Wed afternoon, to 24.4N
68.6W Thu afternoon, before moving slowly NW thereafter as its
completes this clockwise loop. Swell from Jose will dominate
area waters Tue through Fri.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and SW 20 to 25 kt
N of 27N. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE…W winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 15 to 20 kt N of
27N. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT…SW winds less than 5 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 10 to
15 kt N of 27N. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED…S of 27N,SW to W winds less than 5 kt, shifting to N late
in the afternoon. N of 27N,SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E to
SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in NE swell.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT…N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.
.SAT NIGHT…NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/ Gulf of Mexico: CAT2 Hurricane KATIA 07/0600Z nr 21.6N 94.7W, moving ESE 2kt (NHC FL)- Published 07 Sep 2017 0810z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE KATIA

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN..
could be near major hurricane strength at landfall..NHC

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO
* SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Brownsville, TX Radar

Catedral Radar Mexico

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…21.0N 95.8W
ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI…205 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco
* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 95.8 West. Katia is moving
toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through landfall within the hurricane warning
area early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected and Katia
could be near major hurricane strength at landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the
north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and
Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi,
western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are
possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San
Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by tonight or early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by
later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin/Bann

NNN

 

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2017 15:00 GMT

Hurricane KATIA is currently located near 21.0 N 95.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KATIA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KATIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

=============================================================================

Triple Trouble: Cat 5 Irma, Cat 3 Jose, Cat 1 Katia

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0250

WTNT23 KNHC 081432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO
* SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT……. 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT……. 50NE 60SE 55SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 95.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.6N 96.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.7N 97.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.1N 98.4W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 95.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CARBIN/BANN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 081504
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-090315-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Hurricane Katia centered near 21.0N 95.8W 975 mb at
11 AM EDT moving WSW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts
105 kt. Katia is forecast to move to near 20.6N 96.4W this
evening, with maximum sustained wind of 85 kt gusts to 105 kt,
and inland near 19.7N 97.4W by early on Tuesday, with maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt. Katia will gradually weaken
as it moves further inland through Tuesday night. Major
Hurricane Irma is forecast to enter the eastern Straits of
Florida Saturday afternoon, then turn northward across the
Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday, bringing tropical
storm force and possibly hurricane force winds to eastern
portions of the Straits of Florida and Florida Bay in the far SE
Gulf late Sat into Sun.

 

$$

GMZ011-090315-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON…N to NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.

$$

GMZ013-090315-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

$$

GMZ015-090315-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NE winds 20 to
25 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 27N, N to
NE winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 35 to 40 kt late.
Elsewhere, NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 11 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 27N, N winds 40 to
50 kt. Elsewhere, NE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming N to NE 35 to
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.TUE…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ017-090315-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in mixed
NE and SW swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ019-090315-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ021-090315-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N to NE winds
20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida,
N to NE winds 40 to 45 kt, becoming N 55 to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida,
NW to N winds 85 to 105 kt. Seas 17 to 19 ft. Elsewhere, N winds
30 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Straits of Florida, NW to
N winds 50 to 55 kt, becoming NW 30 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 19 ft, subsiding to 10 to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, NW to N winds 35 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 13
ft.
.SUN NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.TUE…SW to W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ023-090315-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…HURRICANE CONDITIONS. SW to W winds 65 to 75 kt. Seas
14 to 19 ft S of 21N W of 95W, and 16 to 20 ft elsewhere.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 21N W of 95W, SW
to W winds 65 to 75 kt, shifting to S to SW 60 to 70 kt late.
Seas 19 to 22 ft. Elsewhere, SE winds 55 to 60 kt, becoming E 30
to 35 kt late. Seas 15 to 18 ft, subsiding to 9 to 12 ft late.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 21N W of 95W, E
winds 35 to 40 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 to 14 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Elsewhere,
NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in
the afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.MON…NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ025-090315-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…Within 60 nm of coast of Campeche, E to SE winds 5 to
10 kt, shifting to SW towards evening. Elsewhere, SE to S winds
10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less Within 60 nm
of coast of Campeche, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

Forecaster Aguirre

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Gert 17/1500Z nr 43.2N 50.0W, moving ENE 35 knots(NHC FL) – Updated 17 Aug 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE GERT

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

……..GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY……NHC FL

⚠️ Life-threatening surf and
rip currents will continue to affect the NE coastof US and Atlantic Canada through
tonight.

at201708 Hurr Gert wund

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

143921_5day_cone_with_line_and_windNHC

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

…GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…43.2N 50.0W
ABOUT 685 MI…1100 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH…65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 50.0 West. Gert is moving toward
the east-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast
of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

=============================================================================

CANADA

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

8:55 AM ADT Thursday 17 August 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

  • Newfoundland

For Hurricane Gert.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 p.m. NDT.

Hurricane Gert will race across the Southern Grand Banks today with no direct impacts to Canadian land areas. Hurricane force winds are not expected over the Grand Banks.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:30 a.m. NDT.

Location: Near 42.3 North 51.7 West.

About 497 kilometres south-southeast of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: East-northeast at 76 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 972 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A special weather statement highlights the possibility of abnormal variations in the tides.

a. Wind.

Any significant winds from Gert are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Some moisture from Gert will feed into an approaching non-tropical weather system near eastern Newfoundland. This system will reach Newfoundland on Thursday and amounts of 25 to 50 mm are forecast over portions of eastern and northern Newfoundland.

c. Surge/Waves.

Long period swells from Gert will reach 2 to 4 metres along south-facing coastlines of Newfoundland later today, with the highest waves likely along the southern Avalon peninsula. These swells could also lead to dangerous rip currents. Significant wave heights of 3 to 5 metres are expected over the Grand Banks on this afternoon. The highest waves from Gert will remain south of Canadian waters.

In addition, Hurricane Gert may cause a series of rapid changes in water levels in harbours and inlets from the Avalon Peninsula north to Trinity Bay for a couple of hours. The most likely time ranges from late this afternoon into this evening. High tide will be occurring late this afternoon for most areas, so there is a risk for minor flooding near and after high tide.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

The latest track for Gert has it passing over the extreme southern Grand Banks today and transitioning to a very intense mid-latitude storm as it passes east of our forecast waters. Gale to storm force winds are expected over southernmost portions of the Grand Banks, with hurricane force winds remaining just south of the Grand Banks. Gale and Storm warnings are in effect for the southern Grand Banks.

Forecaster(s): Mercer/Murtha/Couturier

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Weather Warnings(link)

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Gert Canada

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

201708N TSR!

(Image: TSR)

201708N_0 TSR2 17

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 nhc

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 150831

WTNT23 KNHC 171433
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 43.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.3N 37.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 51.3N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 52.4N 34.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.2N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

 

 

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150926
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
526 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

Hurricane Gert is centered near 31.8N 72.5W at 15/0900 UTC or
about 375 nm W of Bermuda moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 30N-32N between 70W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 28N-33N between 70W-74W. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde islands associated with a
1012 mb low pressure located near 14N28W. The wave axis extends
from 18N27W to the low to 09N28W and has been moving W at 10 kt.
The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment
limit deep convection. Shallow moisture confined to the vicinity
of the monsoon trough and upper level diffluent wind support
scattered moderate convection SW of the low center from 10N-14N
between 28W-33W. Slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next day or two, but conditions are forecast to become
a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by later in
the week while the system moves westward over the tropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
20N51W to 09N53W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is entering a
region of moderate to strong vertical wind shear and is being
severely affected by extensive Saharan dry air and dust, which is
hindering convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
20N64W to 10N66W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical wind shear and dry air subsidence, which is
hindering deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture observed
in CIRA LPW imagery and upper level diffluent flow ahead of the
wave axis in the N-central Caribbean support isolated showers over
northern Puerto Rico and adjacent waters as well as the Mona
Passage and E Dominican Republic.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 14N28W to 11N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 11N43W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W.
Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are coming off the W
African coast associated with the next tropical wave. The
convection extends from 05N to 11N E of 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 15N between 34W and 46W associated with
a 1012 mb low located near 11N39W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, which along with
dry air subsidence support mainly fair weather conditions.
A broad upper level low is centered just N of the Yucatan
Peninsula, which supports isolated showers there and in the
Yucatan Channel. Diffluent flow in the NW periphery of the low
support similar shower activity off the SE coast of Louisiana and
Mississippi. Winds are gentle to moderate and from the S-SE in the
western half of the basin and light variable elsewhere. The ridge
will remain in place across the Gulf waters the next couple of
days. A surface trough will develop each evening across the
Yucatan Peninsula shifting W to the Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours. Locally higher winds can be expected west of the
trough axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean. Please
see section above. The tropical wave will continue to propagate
westward over Puerto Rico this morning, then will move over
central Caribbean waters tonight. Isolated showers are occurring
ahead of the wave axis over northern Puerto Rico and adjacent
waters, the Mona Passage and E Dominican Republic. This convection
is mainly due to shallow moisture and a diffluent wind environment
aloft associated with an upper level low over central Atlc waters.
A broad upper level low centered just N of the Yucatan Peninsula
support isolated showers in the Yucatan Channel extending to NW
Caribbean waters N of 17N W of 80W. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are over Belize and northern Guatemala associated with the
passage of a tropical wave with axis currently moving across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mexico. Otherwise, fresh to near gale force
winds are in the south-central basin forecast to continue through
Thursday.

…HISPANIOLA…

An upper level low over the central Atlc will drift WSW to the north
and across the Island over the next couple of days. This low aloft
along with the passage of a tropical wave will support scattered
to isolated showers over the Island and adjacent waters through
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Scattered showers and tstms are N of 28N between 70W and 74W associated
with the rainbands of Hurricane Gert centered north of the area.
See Special features for further details. Otherwise, the
remainder basin generally N of 20N is under the influence of the
Azores high, which supports fair weather. For information about
tropical waves, see section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

West Pacific: Typhoon Banyan 14W 151500Z position 29.3N 162.6E, moving N 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Aug 2017 1350z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Banyan 14W

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 14W (Banyan) Warning #11
Issued at 13/1500Z

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 28.5N 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 162.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 31.5N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 35.0N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 29 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 39.2N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 44.0N 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 162.6E.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

TY 1712 (Banyan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E162°10′ (162.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°10′ (31.2°)
E162°55′ (162.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°40′ (34.7°)
E166°05′ (166.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 August>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N43°00′ (43.0°)
E177°30′ (177.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

Units:
1 kt (knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1 nm (nautical mile) = 1.852 km

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 151200

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1712 BANYAN (1712) 975 HPA
AT 28.3N 162.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 31.2N 162.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 34.7N 166.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 43.0N 177.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Storm Franklin – ⚠️ Hurricane Warning for MX coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL) – Published 09 Aug 2017 1040z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco (NHC FL)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen (NHC FL)
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo (NHC FL)

Traducción al español (haga clic aquí)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

…FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN is currently located near 20.4 N 92.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). FRANKLIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Coatzacoalcos (18.2 N, 94.4 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

Landfall #2 Coming Up: Franklin Enters Bay of Campeche (Category 6 website)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0837

WTNT22 KNHC 090837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF RIO PANUCO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO BARRA DEL TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ Korea: Typhoon Noru 07W 031600Z nr 28.3°N 132.8°E, moving WNW 10 km/h 6kt(JMA) – Updated 03 Aug 2017 1720z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Noru 07W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Japan BEWARE!!   Korea BE AWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 34 FEET – JTWC

wp201707_5day Noru wund 03 aug

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201707_sat_anim noru wund sat 03 .gif

1705-00 NURU JMA 03a

1705-00 NURU JMA 03

WARN 03

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1705 (Noru)
Issued at 16:40 UTC, 3 August 2017

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 3 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E132°50′ (132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Estimate for 17 UTC, 3 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E132°40′ (132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E131°30′ (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°40′ (28.7°)
E130°25′ (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N29°20′ (29.3°)
E129°25′ (129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′ (31.3°)
E130°00′ (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 07W (Noru) Warning #56
Issued at 03/1500Z

wp0717 JTWC 03

07W_031200sair 03

IR Sat

 

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 056
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 28.3N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 133.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 28.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 29.1N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 29.6N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 30.4N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 32.4N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 36.3N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 40.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 132.9E.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 34
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Aug, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NORU is currently located near 28.3 N 133.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). NORU is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NORU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201707W 03 TSR1

(Image: TSR)

201707W_0 03 TSR2

(Image: TSR)

Other

Typhoon Noru poses a growing threat to southern Japan – Category 6

“Residents of Japan’s southern islands need to keep a close eye on Typhoon Noru. Noru was a strong Category 2 storm as of 12Z Tuesday, with top sustained winds (1-minute) of 90 knots (105 mph) as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). After hurtling to Category 5 intensity on Sunday, the typhoon weakened gradually on Monday as it lost the benefit of a high-altitude outflow channel. However, Noru is expected to re-intensify as it moves slowly northwest toward Japan, where it will encounter slightly warmer waters (above 30°C or 86°F), and into a region with more favorable upper-level winds.

Noru’s northwest track is expected to bend slightly westward as it moves around a compact upper-level high parked near South Korea and the Sea of Japan. This is good news for Japan’s key population centers, including Tokyo, as it would take the typhoon well to their southwest. The large southern island of Kyushu, and the smaller archipelago of the Ryukyu Islands, may not be so lucky. By this weekend, the JTWC track brings Noru toward the west coast of Kyushu as a Category 3 storm. Such a track would put Kyushu on the more dangerous right-hand side of the typhoon. The official three-day outlook from the Japan Meteorological Agency angles Noru more toward the west over the next three days, which would bring the strongest impacts into the more sparsely populated Ryukyu Islands. A crucial question is how quickly the small upper high to the north of Noru breaks down, which is very difficult to predict at this point. The cone of uncertainty for Noru is, in reality, larger than is currently being depicted, given the higher-than-usual uncertainties in the evolution of the steering flow for the typhoon.

For what it’s worth, the operational runs of both the European and GFS models re-intensify Noru into a fearsome super typhoon. The 0Z Tuesday run of the Euro model took Noru on a track similar to the JTWC forecast, looping just to the west of Kyushu, while the 0Z and 6Z Tuesday runs of the GFS moved Noru on a slower, more northward track that would affect Kyushu as well as parts of central Japan. Both models deepened Noru below 900 mb by this weekend, which would imply the possibility of a Category 5 supertyphoon, but these values are very likely unrealistic. This may be a good example of the current tendency of global models to over-deepen strong tropical cyclones at subtropical latitudes (roughly north of 25°N). Until recent years, the global models featured resolution that was too coarse to replicate the lowest pressures at the heart of strong tropical cyclones. Today, the upgraded, higher-resolution models can produce very low surface pressures more readily, but they do not fully account for the ocean-atmosphere interaction across subtropical regions. At these latitudes, late-summer ocean temperatures can be very warm over a very shallow layer that is quickly disrupted by a strong hurricane or typhoon. (Thanks to Julian Heming, UK Met Office, for this background.) We should look at the HWRF model, which is our best intensity model, for guidance on how strong Noru might get. The 06Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model rebuilds Noru to Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds, and predicts a track that would take the storm well west of Kyushu.” – Dr. Jeff Masters & Bob Henson atCategory 6

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn 03a

(Image: JMA)

jma map 03

(Image: JMA)

 

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 021200

WTJP31 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1705 NORU (1705) 950 HPA
AT 28.3N 133.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 28.5N 131.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 28.7N 130.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ China: Typhoon Nesat 11W 290900Z 23.9°N 122.4°E, moving NNW 20 km/h (11 kt) (JMA)- Updated 29 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Nesat 11W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Taiwan, Ishigaki Island, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) and China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z  IS 32 FEET- JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1709 (Nesat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 29 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°55′ (23.9°)
E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 10 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°05′ (24.1°)
E122°20′ (122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°50′ (24.8°)
E119°30′ (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 140 km (75 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°05′ (25.1°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E117°35′ (117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 11W (Nesat) Warning #14
Issued at 29/0900Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 23.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 122.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 24.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 25.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 27.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 31.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 122.2E.
TYPHOON 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE)WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT is currently located near 23.3 N 122.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NESAT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NESAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA)

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 290900

WTJP34 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1709 NESAT (1709) 960 HPA
AT 23.9N 122.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 24.8N 119.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 25.1N 118.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hawaii/ Central Pacific: Tropical Storm Fernanda (06E) 202100Z near 18.2N 140.4W, moving W 11 knots (NHC) – Updated 20 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda (06E)

…FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC….(NHC)

Hawaii be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET (JTWC)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 202035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

…FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.2N 140.4W
ABOUT 965 MI…1555 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 140.4 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general motion
toward the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Fernanda is expected to become a tropical depression
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO
header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 06E (Fernanda) Warning #35
Issued at 20/1600Z

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 035
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 18.1N 138.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 138.7W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 18.6N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 19.0N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 19.5N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 20.1N 145.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 21.5N 149.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.5N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 24.0N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 139.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 936 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: RSMC Miami)


METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2034

WTPZ21 KNHC 202034 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062017
2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 139.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 140.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

 

================================================================================

FZPN02 KWBC 201725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 177W AND 175E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 180W AND 170E WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN
169E AND 178W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 30N168E 999 MB. FROM 30N TO 34N
BETWEEN 164E AND 172E WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 163E AND 172E WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 53.92N 168.03W IS IN A STATE OF UNREST.
MARINERS TRAVELING IN THE VICINITY OF BOGOSLOF VOLCANO ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION. IF MARINERS ENCOUNTER ANY VOLCANIC
ASH…REPORT THE OBSERVATION TO THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER BY
CALLING 301-683-1520.

.FROM 33N TO 38N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 43N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.LOW 55N149W 1002 MB DRIFTING SE. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 57N140W TO
56N146W TO 50N141W TO 47N140W TO 44N142W. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300
NM N QUADRANT…ALSO WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E OF FRONT…AND FROM
43N TO 48N BETWEEN 155W AND 165W…ALSO FROM 53N TO 58N BETWEEN
161W AND 166W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW FORMED NEAR
51N144W 1001 MB. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 53N157W TO 56N150W TO
56N144W TO 53N140W TO 50N133W TO 47NB131W. WITHIN 180 NM NW…N
AND NE OF FRONT…ALSO FROM 41N TO 50N BETWEEN 136W AND 147W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N141W 1002 MB. FROM 49N TO 54N BETWEEN
133W AND 146W…AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM 55N147W TO
55N134W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.S OF 33N W OF 165E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED W OF AREA.

.FROM 45N TO 50N BETWEEN 175W AND 175E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 47N164W 1012 MB. FROM 42N TO 45N
BETWEEN 160W AND 173W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N155W 1011 MB. FORECAST CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 48N
BETWEEN 142W AND 164W AND W OF A LINE FROM 61N170W TO 50N179W TO
46N170W TO 44N170W TO 40N176W TO 37N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 155W AND
164W…ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 153W AND 158W…AND W OF A
LINE FROM 60N175W TO 40N174E TO 38N160E…ALSO FROM 40N TO 43N
BETWEEN 175W AND 174E…ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 153W AND
158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 45N BETWEEN 142W AND
156W…ALSO FROM 50N TO 53N BETWEEN 152W AND 159E…AND W OF A
LINE FROM 58N180W TO 46N176E TO 41N163E.

.HIGH 41N180W 1033 MB MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N173E 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N169E 1027 MB.

.HIGH 58N179W 1018 MB MOVING SW 10 KT…THEN TURNING E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 56N178E 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 53N176W 1023 MB.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N136W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N137W 1025 MB.

.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUL 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.1N 115.4W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL
20 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.7N 118.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120NM NW AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 15.4N 122.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE…60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW AND
120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 16.0N 127.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 16.3N 131.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 17.0N 135.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 18.2N 139.2W 995 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUL 20 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE
QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT…50 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE…120
NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF LINE
FROM 26N134W TO 19N134W TO 13N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA W OF AREA NEAR 19.0N
142.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE…50 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 139W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF LINE FROM 25N137W TO
16N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA W OF AREA
NEAR 20.1N 145.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 21.5N
149.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 22.5N
154.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 24.0N
160.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 13.4N 123.1W 1009 MB AT 1500
UTC JUL 20 MOVING WSW OR 245 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 180NM SE AND 60 NM NW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 12.1N 124.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EIGHT-E NEAR 11.6N
125.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 150 NM
SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N104W 1010 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 450 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
13N109W 1009 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N112W 1008 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF
LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO
15N95.5W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 86.5W AND 89W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN E AND SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 89W AND
92W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 FT IN E AND SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 88.5W…INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC THU JUL 20…

.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NE
QUADRANT WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM GREG…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER…EXCEPT NW QUADRANT.

.TROPICAL WAVE 06N TO 19N ALONG 104W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1010
MB NEAR 12N104W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO
12N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB
NEAR 07N86W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 11N104W. SCATTERED TO
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W
AND 94W.

.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20 2017.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 21 2017.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22 2017.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA JUST E OF AREA 18.2N 139.2W AT 20/1500Z
MOVING W 08 KT. MAX WINDS 55 KT G 65 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER
WITHIN 70 NM NW QUADRANT…50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT…90 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT ELSEWHERE E OF LINE 25N145W 22N150W 16N147W 13N142W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA 19.0N 142.4W. MAX
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER WITHIN 50 NM NE
QUADRANT…40 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…150 NM SW QUADRANT…210 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY 26N140W 14N140W 12N145W
21N153W 24N152W 26N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 20.1N 145.8W.
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT…90 NM
S SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY
25N145W 23N140W 18N145W 16N155W 22N153W 25N145W.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 21.5N 149.5W.
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR OUTLOOK POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 22.5 154.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.
.120 HOUR OUTLOOK POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 24.0N 160.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 24N178E 1008 MB MOVING NNW 15 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
20N175E 19S171E. WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER N
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 720 NM OF CENTER N
SEMICIRCLE…120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT WITHIN 360 N
OF CENTER N AND NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE BOUNDED
BY 30N160E 30N173W 24N176W 21N172E 28N160E 30N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 30N TO 22N BETWEEN 175E AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N174E 1003 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
25N175E. WINDS 30 TO 45 KT WITHIN 60 NM AND 420 NM OF CENTER NE
QUADRANT…AND 60 NM AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS 520 NM NW SEMICIRCLE…240 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM
OF CENTER N SEMICIRCLE…120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE BOUNDED BY 30N160E 30N175W 24N177E 20N170E 24N160E
30N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 30N169E 999 MB. WINDS 30 TO 45 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER S SEMICIRCLE.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE BOUNDED BY 30N165E 30N179W 25N173E
25N165E 30N165E.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROUGH 08N140W 06N145W.

.ITCZ 06N145W 05N160W 08N171W 05N174E 04N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ W OF 171W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ E OF 171W.

.WINDS NE 20 TO 30 KT SE OF LINE 28N140W 20N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS NE TO E 20 TO 30 KT E OF LINE 28N145W TO
20N153W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS NE TO SE 20 TO 30 KT FROM 26N TO 21N E
OF 148W.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 15N TO 05N BETWEEN 160 AND 152W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 02N E OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 04N E OF 160W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSMTS N OF 23N W OF 170E.

$$
.HONOLULU FORECASTER.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm Dora (04E) 25/1500Z nr 15.0N 101.8W, moving WNW 10 kt (NHC FL) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1608z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Dora 04E

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 251432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

…DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI…295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI…520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.8 West. Dora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel
to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Dora could become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan
through Monday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04E (Dora) Warning #02
Issued at 25/1000Z

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 14.5N 100.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 100.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 15.5N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 16.4N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 17.5N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 18.4N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 19.5N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 20.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 101.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1422 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND
261000Z.//
NNNN

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 251554
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 27.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 15.0N 101.8W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN
25 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 16.8N 105.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT…40 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 18.6N 108.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER…WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 19.6N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 20.3N 115.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DORA NEAR 20.0N
118.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 24N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S E OF 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUN 25…

.TROPICAL STORM DORA…NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF DORA. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W
AND 105W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 81W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N84W TO 12N94W, IT THEN RESUMES AT 10N107W
TO 07N131W. ITCZ FROM 07N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 126W AND 129W.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Myanmar/ Bangladesh/ India: Tropical Cyclone MORA 02B 29/0900Z position near 18.3N 91.5E, moving NNE 08 kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 May 20017 1145z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm/Tropical Cyclone Mora

….INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (Bangladesh Met)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 02B (Mora) Warning #07
Issued at 29/0900Z

WTIO31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 17.7N 91.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 91.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 20.0N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 22.8N 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.7N 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 91.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 290400Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE USING A 290316Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH INDICATES THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH ONLY
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE MORA JOGGED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT A GENERAL
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IN APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH IN AROUND 24 HOURS.
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL, WITH THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
NNNN

==========================================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘MORA’ ADVISORY NO. SIX ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 29TH MAY 2017 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH MAY 2017
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, 29TH MAY, 2017 OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.8ºN AND LONGITUDE 91.4ºE, ABOUT 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA(42807) AND 500 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG(41978). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN LONGITUDE 91.0ºE AND 92.0ºE NEAR CHITTAGONG AROUND 30TH MAY 2017 FORENOON.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST TRACK POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION
(LAT. ºN/ LONG. ºE)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
29.05.2017/0600
17.8/91.4
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
29.05.2017/1200
18.9/91.5
90-100 GUSTING TO 110
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
29.05.2017/1800
20.1/91.5
100-110 GUSTING TO 120
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/0000
21.3/91.6
110-120 GUSTING TO 130
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/0600
22.8/91.7
110-120 GUSTING TO 130
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/1800
25.4/92.2
55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
31.05.2017/0600
27.7/93.0
30-40 GUSTING TO 50
DEPRESSION
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE: THE STORM SURGE OF HEIGHT OF ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 METER ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE OVER LOW LYING AREAS OF BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN SITAKUND AND UTTAR JALDI AT THE
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-246524844 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com
TIME OF LANDFALL.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND (MSW) IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992 HPA. A BUOY NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6º N AND LONGITUDE 89.1ºE REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
(MSLP) OF 1003.1 HPA AND MSW 320/21 KNOTS. ANOTHER BUOY NEAR LATITUDE
20.3º N AND LONGITUDE 92.0ºE REPORTED MSLP OF 1000.0 HPA. THE MULTISATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS OF EASTERN SECTOR.
THE CONVECTION HAS FURTHER ORGANISED IN PAST 12 HOURS AND SHOWS
CURVED BAND PATTERN. BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.00N
TO 22.00N LONGITUDE 85.00E TO 97.00E. MINIMUM CTT IS ARROUND – 90.00C. THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS 30-31ºC. THE OCEAN
THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE
TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS AROUND 15-25 KTS, VORTICITY IS
AROUND 200 X10-5 S-1. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER OF 50 X10-5
S-1. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO OF THE ORDER OF 50 X10-5 S-1 AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS
ALONG 17.0ºN IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORHNORTHEASTWARDS
AS IT LAYS WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SO FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
THEREAFTER EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IN WESTERLY OVER
EASTERN INDIA. CURRENTLY SYSTEM IS BEING STARRED BY THE DEEP LAYER
WIND OF 200-850 HPA. THE MEAN DEEP LAYER WIND BETWEEN 200-850 HPA IS
170DEGREE/7 KNOTS. THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATE CONTINUOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST
SECTOR. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMIS AT 0001 UTC OF 29TH
INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTRE FROM
NORTHEAST.
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
MORE THAN 1. IT WOULD CONTINUE IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1
DURING NEXT 3 DAYS. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT DURING
NEXT 48 HRS.
(NARESH KUMAR)
SCIENTIST ‘D’
RSMC, NEW DELHI
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-246524844 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com

Bangladesh Met Logo

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 12 (TWELVE), Date: 29.05.2017 (Local Times)
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 990 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS FURTHER OVER THE SAME AREA, INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (NEAR LAT 18.8°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 385 KMS SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 305 KMS SOUTH OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 450 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONGLA PORT AND 370 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS CHITTAGONG – COX’S BAZAR COAST BY MORNING OF 30 MAY 2017.
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ GUSTY/SQUALLY WIND WITH RAIN/ THUNDER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL DISTRICTS AND MARITIME PORTS OF BANGLADESH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 89 KPH RISING TO 117 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE SYSTEM.
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER TEN (R) TEN.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER FIVE BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 89-117 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

BD map

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 29 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MORA is currently located near 17.7 N 91.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). MORA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Bangladesh
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    India
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Cox’s Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bhutan
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Shillong (25.6 N, 91.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Dispur (26.1 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Imphal (24.8 N, 93.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Other

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Deadly Cyclone Mora hits Bangladesh with high winds and rain – BBC News

(30 May 2017 1105 UTC)

Cyclone Mora has hit the south-eastern coast of Bangladesh, killing at least five people.

Most of them were killed by falling trees in the districts of Cox’s Bazar and Rangamati, officials told the BBC.

Hundreds of houses were fully or partly damaged, the officials said. Significant damage is reported in refugee camps housing Rohingya Muslims from neighbouring Myanmar.

The authorities have moved hundreds of thousands of people to shelters.

Cyclone Mora made landfall at 06:00 local time (00:00 GMT) between the fishing port of Cox’s Bazar and the city of Chittagong, with winds of up to 117 km/h (73mph), the country’s meteorological department said.

Low-lying areas of Cox’s Bazar, Chittagong and many other coastal districts were “likely to be inundated” by a storm surge of 1.2m-1.5m (4-5ft) above normal levels, the department had warned.

People have been evacuated to shelters, schools and government offices.

Fishing boats and trawlers have been advised to remain in shelters. Flights in the area have been cancelled.

About 20,000 houses in refugee camps for Rohingya were damaged, community leader Abdus Salam told AFP news agency.

“In some places, almost every shanty home made of tin, bamboo and plastic has been flattened,” Mr Salam added. “Some people were injured, but no-one is dead.”

Large camps have been set up in Cox’s Bazar for hundreds of thousands of Rohingya who have fled violence in Myanmar.

A clear picture is still not available due to poor communication with many affected areas, Bangladeshi officials told the BBC.

A number of houses were also damaged in western Myanmar.

Cyclone Mora will move northwards past Chittagong, weakening as it moves further inland and downgrading from a Category One hurricane to a tropical storm, tracking website Tropical Storm Risk forecasts.

Parts of eastern India are expected to be affected later on.

The Bay of Bengal is prone to storms and Bangladesh is often hit by severe weather during the monsoon season, from the middle to the end of the year.

Last year, Cyclone Roanu hit coastal Bangladesh, leaving at least 24 people dead.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 291118
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONIC STORM “MORA” OVER BAY OF BENGAL
DATE AND TIME BASED UPON WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:
PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 290600 UTC
PRESENT POSITION: 17.8 0N/91.40 E
POSITION ACCURATE TO 40 KM
PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 010/07 KT
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 33 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORECASTS:
06 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z 18.9°N /91.50 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z 20.1°N /91.50 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

18 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z 21.3°N /91.60 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z 22.8°N /91.70 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z 25.4°N /92.20 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z 27.7°N /93.00 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 15KT, GUSTS 25 KT

Bangladesh Met

Marine Warning
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 12 (TWELVE), Date: 29.05.2017
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 990 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS FURTHER OVER THE SAME AREA, INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (NEAR LAT 18.8°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 385 KMS SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 305 KMS SOUTH OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 450 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONGLA PORT AND 370 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS CHITTAGONG – COX’S BAZAR COAST BY MORNING OF 30 MAY 2017.
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ GUSTY/SQUALLY WIND WITH RAIN/ THUNDER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL DISTRICTS AND MARITIME PORTS OF BANGLADESH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 89 KPH RISING TO 117 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE SYSTEM.
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER TEN (R) TEN.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER FIVE BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 89-117 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm ADRIAN (1E) 10/1600Z nr 10.3N 92.7W, moving NW at 06kt (JTWC) -Updated 10 May 2017 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian (1E)

Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday..
(NHC Miami FL 10/1540Z)

Scroll down for Hurricane Advisory

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 01E (Adrian) Warning #04
Issued at 10/1600Z

01E_101200sair adrian 10ep0117 JTWC 10 Adrian

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 10.1N 92.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 92.5W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 10.8N 93.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 11.4N 94.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 11.9N 95.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 12.2N 96.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 12.7N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 92.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1920 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
//
NNNN

National Hurricane Center – Miami FL

143603_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind nhc 10

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 101441 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 4…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017
1000 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Corrected for headline

…ADRIAN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…10.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 435 MI…700 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Adrian is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a slow
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 10 May, 2017 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ADRIAN is currently located near 9.5 N 92.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). ADRIAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

TSR Adrian 10

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 NHC 10

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 101430

WTPZ21 KNHC 101430 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012017
1500 UTC WED MAY 10 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 10.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…40NE 40SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.4N 94.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.9N 95.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.2N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT…30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT…40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1540 UTC Wed May 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 10.4N 92.7W at 10/1500 UTC
or about 380 nm SSE of Salina Cruz Mexico moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 93W and
95W. Scattered moderate is elsewhere from 09N to 15N between 91W
and 97W. Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N89W then from
11N96W to low pres 1008 MB 10N103W to 07N106W to 05N116W. ITCZ
from 05N116W to 06N126W to 04N135W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 06N between 78W and 82W…from 02N to
07N between 87W and 94W…from 03N to 08N between 107W and
126W…and from 03N to 07N between 129W and 139W.

…DISCUSSION…

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian which is forecast to approach the offshore waters
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later in the week.

Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 27N W of
the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across
the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo…except
occasional fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas.
Seas range from 5-7 ft in the offshore waters off Baja
California Norte…and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California…
except 3-4 ft S of 24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted
elsewhere. Little change in marine conditions is expected through
the end of the week…with the exception of Tropical Storm Adrian
moving into the southern-most zone late Thursday into early
Thursday night. Otherwise…by Friday night into Saturday…the
pressure gradient off southern California will increase
supporting strong NW winds which will build NW swell to 8-12 ft
in offshore waters N of 25N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian east of Central America.

Otherwise…mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail
during the daytime hours…with gentle to moderate offshore
winds during the overnight hours through the next several days.
Combined seas of 4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA…
An area of high pressure with ridge axis extending from 29N147W
to 21N118W is expected to continue weakening and dissipate as a
cold front approaches the NW part of the discussion area. The
front will stall and dissipate from 30N132W to 27N140W by
Thursday night. High pressure will build in behind the front…
increasing trades and resultant seas slightly by the end of the
week. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere N of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas of 6-8 ft are
across this same area.

$$
HUFFMAN

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Vanuatu: Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P) 091200Z position near 21.4S 168.4E , moving SE 11 kt (RSMC Nadi) – Updated 09 May 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P)

Currently impacting New Caledonia

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET.(JTWC)

Scroll down for HURRICANE WARNING for shipping

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 57 issued 1319 UTC Tuesday 9 May 2017

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm May 9 3 21.4S 168.4E 165
+6hr 6 pm May 9 3 22.1S 168.7E 195
+12hr 12 am May 10 2 22.9S 169.1E 220
+18hr 6 am May 10 2 23.7S 169.5E 250
+24hr 12 pm May 10 2 24.8S 170.3E 280
+36hr 12 am May 11 2 27.4S 172.2E 340
+48hr 12 pm May 11 2 31.0S 175.1E 400
+60hr 12 am May 12 2 34.6S 178.9E 485
+72hr 12 pm May 12 2 37.5S 177.0W 570

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 091350 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 168.4E AT
091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING,
T4.5/4.5/W2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 10000 UTC 22.9S 169.1E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 24.8S 170.3E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 27.4S 172.2E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 31.0S 175.1E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DONNA is currently located near 20.1 S 167.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DONNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DONNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Noum’ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) Warning #23
Issued at 09/0900z

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 20.1S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 167.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 21.6S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.2S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 25.4S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 28.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 090432Z 91 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS INTRODUCING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THUS IMPEDING THE
POLEWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC DONNA IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO
COOLER WATERS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
REGION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC DONNA WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane wind damage

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/animations/images/hurricane_winddamage.swf

Map of Vanuatu with its capital Port Vila, located on its third largest island. (From Wikipedia)

FBC logo

Cyclone Donna intensifies to Category 4

18:41 6 May 2017 (Local Time)

Taken from/By: FBC News
Report by: Akosita Talei

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna has now intensified to a category four system with central pressure of 965 heta pascal destructive hurricane force winds estimated at about 90 knots close to the centre.

TC Donna was located 700km northwest of Port Vila or 1560km west-northwest of Nadi at mid-day today.

Fiji Meteorology Director Ravindra Kumar says it’s moving west-southwest at about 13km/hr and gradually turning southwards and expected to track towards New Caledonia and Southern Vanuatu.

He adds that although TC Donna still lies in favourable environment for further intensification, it’s expected to encounter unfavourable environmental conditions as it turns and tracks in a southerly direction.

He says Fiji is not directly threatened by TC Donna, however associated strong winds will affect Fiji waters and a strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters.

Expect rough seas with east to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, gusting to 30 knots.

Strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters and Occasional showers expected. Isolated heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 091308 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4 SOUTH
168.4 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 168.4E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.9S 169.1E AT 10000 UTC
AND NEAR 24.8S 168.5E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 053.

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Norfolk Island/ NZ /New Caledonia: Tropical Cyclone COOK 16P 111500Z position nr 27.0S 168.8E, moving SE 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 11 Apr 2017 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone COOK (16P)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: Apr 11, 2017, 12:00:00 AM GMT @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 11/1500Z

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 26.6S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 168.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 28.3S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 168.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 111141Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING AN
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC REGION, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

===========================================================================

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 110152 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6S 166.0E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SECTOR FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST.
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO DECREASED. CYCLONE LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 26-27 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 1/3
DEGRESS INTO STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDS, DT=3.5 MET 3.5 AND
PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS. CI HELD
HIGH DUE TO CI RULES FOR WEAKENING.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 26.1S 167.9E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.4S 170.1E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 28.9S 172.5E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON COOK.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0346 UTC 11-Apr-2017

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E at 11/0000UTC today or about 140nm south of Noumea, New
Caledonia, moving south at 10 knots. Maximum winds near the centre
were estimated to be 55 knots with gales extending up to 120nm from
the centre.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 12-Apr-2017

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E, or about bout 140nm south of Noumea, New Caledonia, at
11/0000UTC today and is currently moving south out of the Tropics.

Tropical depression, TD19F, (994hPa) was analysed near 26.0S 169.3W,
or about 430nm southeast of Nukualofa, Tonga at 11/0000UTC today. The
system has low potential to develop into a TC, and is expected to
drift slowly northwards towards Niue over the next 24 hours.

OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 15-Apr-2017

TD19F is expected to track east-southeast from Thursday and lie near
southern Cook Islands, then weaken from Friday onwards.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Wed 12-Apr-2017

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2017

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm COOK is currently located near 26.6 S 168.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). COOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_SOUTH_25S / 1311

WTNZ41 NZKL 111311
GALE WARNING 279
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK 990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6 SOUTH
168.8 EAST AT 111200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.6S 168.8E AT 111200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WITH VERY
ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 268.=

South West Pacific Marine

UPDATED

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 110800 UTC. PART 1 : WARNINGSTORM WARNING 034 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110731 UTC. REFER TO STORM WARNING NUMBER 268 ISSUED BY RSMC WELLINGTON. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 032. ********************************************************************* ************** GALE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110847 UTC. IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 23S 174W 23S 165W 25S 175W 25S 166W,EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 033. ********************************************************************* ************** PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Apr 120600 UTC. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 11S 160E 16S 165E 23S 169E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1. WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 10S 160W 08S 145W 07S 130W 07S 120W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. TROUGH T1 04S 160E 08S 175E 11S 179W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 12S 176W 18S 170W 20S 168W 25S 167W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 09S 169W 13S 163W 16S 160W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. TROUGH T4 17S 152W 21S 145W 25S 138W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T4. TROUGH T5 25S 156W 22S 149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T5. OUTSIDE STORM WARNING NUMBER 034 AND IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 22S AND BETWEEN 165E AND 175E, EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175E AND 135W, EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF EQ AND EAST OF 135W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean (Australia): Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U 07/1800Z nr 15.9S 110.4E, moving S 3 kt (Perth TCWC) – Published 07 Apr 2017 2228z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U

(= CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: TSR)

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Saturday 8 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 5) was located at 2:00 am AWST near
15.9S 110.4E,
that is 790 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 780 km north northwest of
Exmouth] and moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie has continued to intensify over the last 6 hours
and is a category 5 system over open waters northwest of WA. Ernie will
continue to intensify as it slowly tracks towards the south and then turn to
the west-southwest this morning and is expected to begin weakening from late
Saturday or early Sunday.

Gales are not expected on Christmas Island or the WA mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am AWST.

===============================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:16S110E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1835UTC 7 APRIL 2017

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal nine south (15.9S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal four east (110.4E)
Recent movement : south at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 120 knots
Central pressure: 922 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 120 knots near the centre easing to 95 knots by 1800 UTC 08
April.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 08 April: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.2 south 110.0 east
Central pressure 931 hPa.
Winds to 115 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 08 April: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.4 south 109.1 east
Central pressure 953 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 08 April 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE (13P) 260900Z position nr 18.4S 151.0E, moving WSW 03kt (JTWC) – Published 26 Mar 2017 1253z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Debbie (13P)

Tropical cyclone Debbie moving towards the coast, expected to intensify into a category 3 system this evening – Brisbane TCWC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15

Issued at 7:49 pm EST on Sunday 26 March 2017

Headline:

Tropical cyclone Debbie moving towards the coast, expected to intensify into a category 3 system this evening.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone

Innisfail to Lucinda, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 7:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 18.4 degrees South 150.9 degrees East, estimated to be 440 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 330 kilometres east northeast of Bowen.

Movement: west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Debbie is moving west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system tonight. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

Hazards:

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay tonight, and could extend to remaining areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence on Monday. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda during Monday evening or Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may then gradually extend further north to Lucinda during the day Monday and overnight into Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the centre.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides on Monday.

Residents between and between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, is also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Recommended Action:

People between Ayr and St Lawrence should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Cairns and Ayr, and inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Sunday 26 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

================================================================================

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE is currently located near 18.3 S 151.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). DEBBIE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DEBBIE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 18.3S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 151.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 18.6S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 19.0S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 19.5S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 20.0S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.9S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 21.6S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 260545Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.5 (55 TO 70 KNOTS) LATEST SATCON
ESTIMATES AROUND 65 KNOTS, AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT TPW IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS SLOWED THE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A
STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC 13P MAKES LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTAU05 APRF 260653
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:16S099E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0653UTC 26 MARCH 2017

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Caleb was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude ninety nine decimal four east (99.4E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre.

Winds above 34 knots Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant,
with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.0 south 98.8 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 27 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 16.0 south 97.7 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 26 March 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Seychelles/Madagascar: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone FANTALA 08R 19S: (=CAT5-SS) – Published 18 Apr 2016 1638Z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone‬ FANTALA‬ (08R‬ 19S)

(= CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala

5 Day Forecast (Image: @wunderground)

Tropical Cyclone Fantala

Image: @wunderground Satellite

ZCZC 048
WTIO30 FMEE 181238 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION 2016/04/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 130 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2016/04/21 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/04/21 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/04/22 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2016/04/23 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=7.0-, CI=7.5-
NNNN

WTIO31 FMEE 181238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF LA REUNION
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 18/04/2016:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / E 49.3
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0 / 7.5 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 130 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WIND (RVM): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION BY WINDS QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: SO 240 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: SO 110 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE SE 80 80 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE SE 60: 60 SW: 70 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 04/19/2016 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY
INTENSE
24H: 19/04/2016 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
36H: 20/04/2016 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
48H: 20/04/2016 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
60H: 21/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 21/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B TREND LATER:
96H: 22/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 23/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C:
T = 7.0-, 7.5- CI =
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS EYE FANTALA REMAINS VERY WELL
DEFINED AND HOT. SUMMITS PERIODS HAVE warmed up slightly.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXCELLENT FLOW ALOFT OUTGOING.
SLOWING THE SYSTEM STILL ON WEST CAP. THE HIGH CELL
Geopotentials OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING SHOULD BE FANTALA
QUIT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE RIDGE MIDDLE OF EQUATORIAL
TROPOSPHERE MEAN THAT BUILDS NORTHEAST AND FRONT OF
LARGE TROUGH OF MID-LATITUDE, FANTALA SHOULD RE-ACCELERATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
Wednesday and Thursday, ALWAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR RIDGE
EQUATORIAL CITED AND PRE-NEW DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH, THE
TRACK COULD ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY NEW CELL MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE
TROPOSPHERE COULD REBUILD IN MADAGASCAR AND SYSTEM
COULD RESUME AGAIN If FIXING TRACK BEFORE
NORTH-WEST.
THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO BEFORE MATURITY.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE SLOWDOWN
METEOR, THEN IT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING ON WATER HE ALREADY
Traveled, THEREFORE LESS ENERGY CONTENT, MAY FANTALA
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN IF THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS
ALTITUDE REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE.
FROM WEDNESDAY THE DIFFERENCE CONDITIONS ARE IN ALTITUDE
SLIGHTLY LESS GOOD, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND WATER
MORE HOT AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH INTENSITY.
AFTER LATEST MODELS, VERTICAL SHEAR
WIND SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON THE TRACK
PROVIDED AT END OF ÉCHÉANCWTIO31 FMEE 181238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF THE MEETING
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 18/04/2016:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / E 49.3
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0 / 7.5 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 130 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WIND (RVM): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION BY WINDS QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: SO 240 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: SO 110 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE SE 80 80 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE SE 60: 60 SW: 70 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 04/19/2016 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY
INTENSE
24H: 19/04/2016 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
36H: 20/04/2016 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
48H: 20/04/2016 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
60H: 21/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 21/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B TREND LATER:
96H: 22/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 23/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C:
T = 7.0-, 7.5- CI =
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS EYE FANTALA REMAINS VERY WELL
DEFINED AND HOT. SUMMITS PERIODS HAVE warmed up slightly.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXCELLENT FLOW ALOFT OUTGOING.
SLOWING THE SYSTEM STILL ON WEST CAP. THE HIGH CELL
Geopotentials OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING SHOULD BE FANTALA
QUIT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE RIDGE MIDDLE OF EQUATORIAL
TROPOSPHERE MEAN THAT BUILDS NORTHEAST AND FRONT OF
LARGE TROUGH OF MID-LATITUDE, FANTALA SHOULD RE-ACCELERATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
Wednesday and Thursday, ALWAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR RIDGE
EQUATORIAL CITED AND PRE-NEW DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH, THE
TRACK COULD ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY NEW CELL MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE
TROPOSPHERE COULD REBUILD IN MADAGASCAR AND SYSTEM
COULD RESUME AGAIN If FIXING TRACK BEFORE
NORTH-WEST.
THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO BEFORE MATURITY.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE SLOWDOWN
METEOR, THEN IT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING ON WATER HE ALREADY
Traveled, THEREFORE LESS ENERGY CONTENT, MAY FANTALA
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN IF THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS
ALTITUDE REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE.
FROM WEDNESDAY THE DIFFERENCE CONDITIONS ARE IN ALTITUDE
SLIGHTLY LESS GOOD, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND WATER
MORE HOT AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH INTENSITY.
AFTER LATEST MODELS, VERTICAL SHEAR
WIND SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON THE TRACK
PROVIDED AT END OF ÉCHÉANCE

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning #14
Issued at 18/0900Z

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1916.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19S_180600sams.jpg

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
180600Z — NEAR 9.3S 49.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 49.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 9.3S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 9.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 10.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 10.8S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 12.6S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 13.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 13.7S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 783 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISTINCT 16-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY
AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT INTENSITY. AN 180331Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE FEATURE WITH A SECOND
CONVECTIVE RING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN MSI IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 150 KNOTS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 19S IT TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A VERY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
INDICATING THAT THE STEERING MECHANISM IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT FROM
THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH TO A BUILDING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TC
FANTALA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A
SECOND MID-LATITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH TURNING THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MULTIPLE TRACK CHANGES. DUE TO THIS
DISAGREEMENT AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

S Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 18 Apr, 2016 6:00 GMT

Very Intense TC FANTALA is currently located near 9.3 S 49.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 150 kts (173 mph). FANTALA is a category 5 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FANTALA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Seychelles
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Providence Is. (9.2 S, 51.1 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Antseranana (12.4 S, 49.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Vohimarina (13.3 S, 49.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map

(Images above: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 181228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/04/2016
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/04/2016 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA) 910 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR AND IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR
WITHIN OUTER BANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/130 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2016/04/19 AT 00 UTC:
9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2016/04/19 AT 12 UTC:
9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

North Atlantic: ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM… …NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES – NHC – Updated 15 Jan 2016 1516z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Alex

…ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES…

at201601_5day 1600

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

at201601_sat_anim 1600

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

145558W5_NL_sm.gif

000
WTNT31 KNHC 151455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016

…ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…39.3N 27.0W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 28 MPH…44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the hurricane
and tropical storm warning for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
Satellite and surface data indicate that Alex made landfall on the
island of Terceira around 915 AM AST (1315 UTC) as a tropical storm
with an intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 27.0 West. Alex is
moving toward the north near 28 mph (44 km/h) and a turn toward the
north-northwest and northwest is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Alex is expected to lose tropical characteristics later
today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still possible
over portions of the Azores for the next few hours.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Rainfall in association with Alex should diminish across
the Azores this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and waves should gradually diminish
across the Azores today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jan, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ALEX is currently located near 39.3 N 27.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). ALEX is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Azores
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ponta Delgada (37.7 N, 25.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201601N 1600

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

201601142241_at_graphicast b

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 151454

WTNT21 KNHC 151454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1500 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT…….150NE 150SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….400NE 300SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 240SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 27.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.1N 28.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…240NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT…420NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 52.7N 31.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…240NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…420NE 300SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW.
34 KT…420NE 60SE 60SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 27.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone (CAT3 SS) ULA 06P: 102100Z POSITION nr 22.6S 170, moving SSW 8 knots (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jan 2016 2155z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA (06P)

(= CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET

sp201606_5day 10m

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

 

Image: @wunderground Satellite NOT AVAILABLE

logo

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 48 issued 1931 UTC Sunday 10 January 2016

65660 10

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm January 10 4 22.0S 170.1E 35
+6hr 12 am January 11 4 23.0S 169.9E 65
+12hr 6 am January 11 3 24.1S 170.1E 95
+18hr 12 pm January 11 3 25.3S 170.4E 120
+24hr 6 pm January 11 3 26.5S 171.1E 150
+36hr 6 am January 12 3 29.0S 173.1E 210
+48hr 6 pm January 12 2 31.2S 175.9E 270
+60hr 6 am January 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 6 pm January 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A46 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 101954 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.0S 170.1E AT 101800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
WEST SEMICIRCLE.

EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHT WARMING IN CLOUD TOPS PAST 6 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE IN LG SURROUND DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 24.1S 170.1E MOV S AT 12KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.5S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 12KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110200 UTC.

 

vms_banner_bg_14

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 14 for Anietyum Island, TAFEA province.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 14 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:08am VUT Monday 11 January 2016 for
Anietyum Island, TAFEA province.

At 5:00am local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (941 hPa) Category 4 was
located at 22.0 degrees South 170.0 degrees East. The Severe Tropical Cyclone
is positioned at the top right corner of square letter I, number 12 (I,12)
of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This is about 200 KM
south of Aneityum and 285 KM south southeast of Tanna.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula has moved in a south southwest direction at
14 KM/HR in the past 3 hours.

Winds close to the center are estimated at 165 KM/HR.
Expected position of the system in the next 6 hours will be near
23.7 degrees South 170.1 degrees East.

Strong force winds of 45 to 55 KM/HR will continue to affect
Anietyum island today and slowly decreasing as Tropical cyclone
Ula continues a southward movement away from Vanuatu Area.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 22.8S, 169.8E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 23.7S, 170.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 24.6S, 170.3E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 12 Jan) 25.7S, 171.0E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 12 Jan) 27.6S, 172.6E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 13 Jan) 29.1S, 174.7E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)

Seas will remain rough to very rough over southern waters with
heavy swells expected.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) has given ALL CLEAR
for TAFEA province.

This will be the final information on Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA unless the
systems turns back.

This warning is also available on VMGD’s website http://www.meteo.gov.vu
Bislama Translation

Tropikol Saeklon Woning Namba 14 lo Sevea Tropikol Saeklon Ula we i kamaot
lo Vanuatu Meteorology mo Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila lo
6:08am VUT Monday 11 January 2016.

Lo 5:00am lokal taem, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (941 hPa) Category 4 hemi
stap lo 22.0 degrees South 170.0 degrees East. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula
oli loketem kolosap lo top kona blo skwea leta I, namba 12 (I,12) insaed lo
Vanuatu Tropikol saeklon Traking Map. Hemia, hemi stap 200 KM south
blo Aneityum mo 285 KM south southeast blo Tanna. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula
i bin muv lo south southwest dareksen lo wan spid blo 14 KM/HR lo las 3 aoa we i pas.

Presa lo medel blo saeklon ia hemi kolosap lo 941 hPa. Pawa blo win kolosap
lo senta hemi 165 KM/HR. Sevea Tropikol saeklon Ula bai i muv i go lo
23.7 degrees South 170.1 degrees East lo nekis 06 kasem 12 aoa.

Ol win we pawa blo ol i save kasem 45 igo kasem 55KM/HR oli expekted blo stap
afektem Anietyum aelan mo slo slo bai i stap ko daon taem Tropikol saeklon
Ula i kontinu blo muv aot lo eria blo Vanuatu.

Fokas Posisen
Dei mo taem Posisen Pawa
+06 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 22.8S, 169.8E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 23.7S, 170.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 24.6S, 170.3E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 12 Jan) 25.7S, 171.0E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 12 Jan) 27.6S, 172.6E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 13 Jan) 29.1S, 174.7E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)

Solwora bai i raf tumas iet wetem ol bigfala swel i expekted blo afektem sol
wota blo saot.

Vanuatu Nasonal Disasta Manejmen Ofis hemi stap givim ALL CLEAR lo ol people
blo TAFEA.

Bae i no mo kat narafala woning we ba i kamaot.

Ol woning ia you save kasem lo website blo VMGD www.meteo.gov.vu

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) Warning #24
Issued at 10/2100Z

sh0616 10

 

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101800Z — NEAR 22.1S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 170.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 26.7S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 30.8S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 33.1S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT
HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE
TO INCREASED NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS NEARLY LOST ITS EYE FEATURE AND CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE
CORE HAVE WARMED. A 101525Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE; HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AN
ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BASED ON DECLINING
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE
WEAKENING SEEN IN ALL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06P IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN AXIS OF
THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS THE
CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE,
ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING TREND. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jan, 2016 6:00 GMT

Very Intense TC ULA is currently located near 20.5 S 170.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 115 kts (132 mph). ULA is a category category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. ULA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201606P 10a

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 047 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 101900 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0 SOUTH 170.1
EAST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 22.0S 170.1E at 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 85 KNOTS
BY 110600UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN EAST
SEMICIRLCE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.1S 170.1E AT 110600 UTC
AND NEAR 26.5S 171.1E AT 111800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 046

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Hurricane Patricia 20E CAT1: Tropical Storm Warning for Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas (NHC) – Updated 24 Oct 2015 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Patricia 20E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083407W5_NL_sm 24a

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM…SSW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM ENE OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). Patricia is
forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over
northern and northeastern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and
Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm later this morning,
and dissipate tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the warning area and over inland areas, especially in
higher elevations, near the center through this morning.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely
to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. During the
past 24 hours, a rainfall total of 10.25 inches (260 mm) has been
reported at Nevado De Colima in Jalisco state.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside but
will remain above normal through late today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 20E (Patricia) Warning #17
Issued at 24/0400Z

JTWC 24

20E_232345sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 240400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240000Z — NEAR 19.6N 104.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 104.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.7N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 25.0N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 104.3W.
HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 19E (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 24 Oct, 2015 3:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 20.2 N 104.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Zacatecas (22.8 N, 102.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 24

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 240832

WTPZ25 KNHC 240832
TCMEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WEST OF MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 250SE 60SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

More warnings here: METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.