Rodrigues (Mauritius)/ Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA 22S 26/1500Z positon near 19.6S 65.2E, moving ESE 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Mar 2019 1813Z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA (13, 22S)

Joaninha is a Category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 38 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Joaninha) Warning #19
Issued at 26/1500Z

sh2219-1

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
261200Z — NEAR 19.5S 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 65.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 19.9S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 20.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 20.7S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 21.3S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 23.2S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 25.6S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 27.7S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A 15-NM WIDE EYE AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE MSI AND
AN EYE FEATURE IN A 261146Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 22S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE
TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 96,
INCREASED BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 22S TO BEGIN
TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 100 KTS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 45 KTS BY TAU 120.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD (OVER 450 NM BY TAU 12) IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF AND GALWEM BEING THE WESTERNMOST AND
EASTERNMOST MEMBERS, RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) FOR FINAL WARNING
ON THAT SYSTEM (WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

 

Bulletin du 26 mars à 16H23 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JOANINHA.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 185 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 260 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 942 hPa.Position le 26 mars à 16 heures locales Réunion: 19.5 Sud / 64.8 Est.Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 955 km au secteur: ESTDistance de Mayotte: 2230 km au secteur: EST-SUD-ESTDéplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 11 km/h.Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système

 

Bulletin of March 26 at 16:23 local Réunion:

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOANINHA.Vents maximum (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 185 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 260 km / h. Estimated pressure in the center: 942 hPa. Position on March 26 at 4 pm Réunion: 19.5 South / 64.8 East.Distance from the Reunion coast: 955 km to the area: EASTMayotte: 2230 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTHEAST: EAST-SOUTHEAST, 11 km /h.This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see menu on the right) for forecasts on this system

 

METEOSAT Imagery

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2019 0:00 GMT

 

Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA is currently located near 19.1 S 63.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). JOANINHA is a category 3 (Edit: Now CAT 4) storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. JOANINHA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Scale) or above winds

 

Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 4 (major)

130-156 mph

113-136 kt

209-251 km/h

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO20 FMEE 261225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 64.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
20.6 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Tropical Storm IBA 26/1200Z near 20.7S 037.7W (estimated), moving S ~05kt 1002hpa (BNHC Brazil data) – Published 26 Mar 2019 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm IBA

A rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic off the southeast coast of Brazil

GOES 16 Image

2019-03-26 16:10:19 UTC

GOES16 IBA.png

xxx

 

Centro de

Hidrografia da Marinha

Marinha do Brasil

Warnings

SPECIAL WARNING

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

AREA ALFA

WARNING NR 207/2019
ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – SUN – 24/MAR/2019
AREA ALFA STARTING AT 250000 UTC. WAVES FM SW/SE 3.0/4.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 213/2019
HIGH SURF  WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
HIGH SURF BETWEEN CHUÍ (RS) AND TRAMANDAÍ (RS) STARTING AT 261200 UTC. WAVES FROM SE 2.5 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 271200 UTC.

AREA DELTA

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

WARNING NR 214/2019
ROUGH/VERY ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA N OF 23S AND E OF 040W STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WAVES FM E/NE 3.0/5.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 216/2019
HIGH SURF  WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
HIGH SURF BETWEEN MARATAÍZES (ES) AND LINHARES (ES) STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WAVES FROM SE 2.5 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 218/2019
SEVERE GALE/STORM WARNING
ISSUED AT 2200 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA N OF 23S STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WIND SE/NE E OF 037W AND SW/SE BETWEEN 037W AND 040W FORCE 9/10 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 271200 UTC.
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 212/2019.

WARNING NR 219/2019
ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – TUE – 26/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA E OF 039W STARTING AT 270000 UTC. WAVES FM SE/NE BECOMING SW/SE 3.0/4.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 281200 UTC.

WARNING NR 220/2019
NEAR GALE/SEVERE GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – TUE – 26/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA E OF 038W STARTING AT 271200 UTC. WIND SW/SE FORCE 7/9 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 281200 UTC.

AREA ECHO

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

WARNING NR 215/2019
NEAR GALE/GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA ECHO S OF 18S STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WIND NE/NW FORCE 7/8 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 261800 UTC.

FQST02 SBBR 260230
1 31 05 02 12 20

 

Page 1
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK AND SUPPLY
National Institute of Meteorology – INMET
Monumental Axis – Via S1 – Southwest – 70680-900 – Brasília-DF – Phone: + (55) (61) 2102-4602 – Fax: + (55) (61) 2102-4620
NOTE 2: TROPICAL STORM “IBA”
Bra Sília, March 25, 2019
The Brazilian Navy, through the Center for Hydrography of the Navy (CHM) and in collaboration
with the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and the Center for Forecasting Weather and Studies
(CPTEC / INPE), participates that Tropical Storm “Iba” is located on the high seas, with
center in the geographical position 19,9ºS 037,3ºW, at the height of the coast referring to the city of Linhares
(ES), extending between the southern coast of the state of Bahia and northern Espírito Santo, and presented
maximum intensity of the winds of 101 km / h (55 knots) at 15:00 on the 25th, in a circle of 185
Km around the position of its center, therefore only in the maritime region. Your displacement
continues predominantly to the South, with a slight component to the West until the 25th
night, when it is expected that it will move with a light component to the East until the 26th
night, away from the coast. Its effects can continue to be felt on the southern coast of the state
Bahia and Espírito Santo until the 26th at night, when it is expected that it will not influence the coast
south of Bahia and also influence the northern coast of Rio de Janeiro. Will be issued new
update until the end of day 26.
Strong winds are expected between the northern coast of the state of Rio de Janeiro and the south coast
of Bahia, reaching 101 km / h (55 knots) on the high seas in the east sector of the cyclone, and 61 km / h (33
us) by the coast, between the 25th at night and the 26th at night. There is forecast of thick sea to very thick
on the same stretch of coastline, with wave heights between 3.0 and 5.0 meters at sea, between day 25
in the evening and in the evening at night. There is a possibility of hangover reaching the coast between Vitoria
(ES) and Caravelas (BA), with waves up to 2,5 meters, until the 25th at night, and between Marataízes (ES)
and Linhares (ES), between the 25th at night and the 26th at night. The severe weather condition caused
by this system will occur mainly on the high seas, associated with heavy rain.

Page 2
Monumental Axis – Via S1 – Southwest – 70680-900 – Brasília-DF – Phone: + (55) (61) 2102-4602 – Fax: + (55) (61) 2102-4620
The Brazilian Navy maintains all the bad weather warnings in force at the electronic address
The Brazilian Navy, INMET and CPTEC / INPE will accompany the formation and performance of this
system in the next few days and updates will be posted on the sites:
Facebook, under “@servicometeorologicomb” and “@inpe.cptec”. The information can also be
accessed through the “Bulletin to the Sea” application, which is available for download at
Internet, both for the Android system and for IOS, developed in partnership between the Navy
of Brazil and the Institute Towards the Sea (RUMAR)

 

Other Sources

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA): Tropical Cyclone VERONICA 25/1800Z near 20.5S 116.4E, moving WSW ~4.8kt. (BoM) – Updated 25 Mar 2019 1920Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA 21S

Tropical Cyclone Veronica, near Dampier, weakening as it moves steadily westwards.

Warning zone: Dampier to Mardie, including the Burrup Peninsula.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Roebourne to Dampier, including Karratha.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 11 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Veronica

Issued at 2:50 am AWST Tuesday 26 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 69.

 

Community Threat

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Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Veronica, near Dampier, weakening as it moves steadily westwards.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Dampier to Mardie, including the Burrup Peninsula.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Roebourne to Dampier, including Karratha.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Veronica at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.5 degrees South, 116.4 degrees East , 35 kilometres west northwest of Dampier and 55 kilometres west northwest of Karratha .
Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Veronica is a Category 1 system and is weakening as it moves towards the west southwest. It is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity in the next three to six hours.

Hazards:

Widespread, very heavy rainfall conducive to MAJOR FLOODING is likely over the central Pilbara coast and adjacent inland areas, easing gradually during Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected to result in significant river rises, areas of flooding and hazardous road conditions. Some roads may become impassable and some communities may become isolated. Flood Warnings and Watches are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring at exposed coastal locations near Dampier. Gales could extend west towards Mardie in the next three to six hours before the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near communities between Mardie and Whim Creek including Whim Creek, Point Samson, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier need to remain in shelter until the all clear is given.

ALL CLEAR: All Clear with caution for people between the communities of Whim Creek and Port Hedland (not including Whim Creek or Mardie) and people in or near communities of the inland Pilbara, Barrow Island, Pannawonica and surrounding areas are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am March 26 1 20.5S 116.4E 30
+6hr 8 am March 26 tropical low 20.7S 115.7E 50
+12hr 2 pm March 26 tropical low 21.0S 114.9E 70
+18hr 8 pm March 26 tropical low 21.3S 114.1E 95
+24hr 2 am March 27 tropical low 21.5S 113.3E 120
+36hr 2 pm March 27 tropical low 21.8S 112.1E 155
+48hr 2 am March 28 tropical low 21.8S 111.1E 190
+60hr 2 pm March 28 tropical low 21.3S 109.8E 230
+72hr 2 am March 29 tropical low 20.6S 108.4E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Tuesday

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2019 6:00 GMT

 

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 25 Mar, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VERONICA is currently located near 20.4 S 116.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). VERONICA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
    Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Veronica) Warning #24
Issued at 25/1500Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 20.4S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 116.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 20.8S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 21.4S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 22.1S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, BETWEEN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AIRPORT AND OTHER LOCAL STATIONS
APPROXIMATELY 20-25 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH REPORT 33-35 KTS OF
SUSTAINED WINDS, AND MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KTS). TC 21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WITH HIGH VWS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID WEAKENING
AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION, HIGH VWS, AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH OF LEARMONTH, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED
EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH. OVERALL,
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 100NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:20S117E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1235UTC 25 MARCH 2019

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Veronica was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal five south (20.5S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal nine east (116.9E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 989 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 26
March and to 25 knots by 1200 UTC 26 March.

Winds above 34 knots within 45 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.8 south 115.4 east near
the coast
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 21.4 south 113.8 east near
the coast
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 March 2019.

WEATHER PERTH
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (QLD/NT): Severe Tropical Cyclone TREVOR 20P 22/1500Z position near 15.2S 138.5E, moving WSW 04kt (JTWC) Intensifying! – Updated 22 Mar 2019 1637Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor 20P

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to Australian Category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning (BoM)

Trevor is currently a Category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a Category 3 storm on the same scale by 23 Mar, 0:00 (TSR data)

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba (BoM)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Trevor) Warning #20
Issued at 22/1500Z

sh2019

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221200Z — NEAR 15.0S 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 138.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 15.9S 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 17.1S 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 18.4S 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 20.0S 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD A
PINHOLE BUT PROMINENT EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT STACKED DIRECTLY OVER A
COMPACT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS TO T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW, ADRM, AND
KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA JUST AFTER TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 36, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD DEEPER INTO THE AUSTRALIAN
OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
GOC WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM UP TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor

Issued at 11:34 pm AEST Friday 22 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 43.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor at 10:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South, 138.9 degrees East , 185 kilometres north of Mornington Is and 305 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is forecast to cross the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border Saturday morning with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts to 275 km/h near the cyclone centre as it approaches and crosses the coast.

Coastal residents between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING during Friday night and Saturday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a STORM TIDE is also expected between the NT/QLD border and Burketown. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

GALES, with gusts to 120 km/h are occuring on Mornington Island, Sweers Island and expected to develop on the mainland coast between Port Roper in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland and on Groote Eylandt in the next few hours. GALES are expected to extend inland into the eastern Carpentaria, northern Barkly Districts and the northwest Gulf Country on Saturday morning. Inland locations which may be affected on Saturday and early Sunday include Doomadgee, Creswell Downs, Cape Crawford, Robinson River, McArthur River, Wollogorang and Brunette Downs.

HEAVY RAINFALL is likely to cause significant stream rises and localised flooding in the eastern Carpentaria District from early Saturday. A Flood Watch has been issued for Carpentaria Coastal Rivers and the Barkly in the Northern Territory.

HEAVY RAINFALL will also develop over the western Gulf Country in Queensland as the cyclone moves inland tomorrow. Flood Warnings are current in Queensland for the Daintree and Mossman Rivers, as well as a broader Flood Watch for catchments north of Cairns to Kowanyama, the western Gulf Country, and the Channel Country.

Recommended Action:

People between the NT/QLD border and Burketown, and in areas extending inland to Doomadgee, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place, especially securing boats and property.

– Information is available from your local government.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises:

Residents from Alyangula to NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt and Borroloola

-Prepare you home and yard for severe cyclone;

-Follow direction and advice of local emergency services;

communities under Watch:

-Prepare for wet and windy conditions and consider the situation when the cyclone travels far inland;

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au. Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 22 3 15.0S 138.9E 30
+6hr 4 am March 23 4 15.4S 138.3E 50
+12hr 10 am March 23 4 15.9S 137.6E 70
+18hr 4 pm March 23 3 16.4S 136.8E 95
+24hr 10 pm March 23 2 17.0S 136.1E 120
+36hr 10 am March 24 tropical low 18.6S 135.1E 155
+48hr 10 pm March 24 tropical low 20.1S 135.1E 190
+60hr 10 am March 25 tropical low 21.3S 135.8E 230
+72hr 10 pm March 25 tropical low 21.7S 137.3E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:30 am AEST Saturday

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor

Issued at 10:58 pm ACST Friday 22 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 43.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor at 9:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South, 138.9 degrees East , 185 kilometres north of Mornington Is and 305 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is forecast to cross the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border Saturday morning with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts to 275 km/h near the cyclone centre as it approaches and crosses the coast.

Coastal residents between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING during Friday night and Saturday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a STORM TIDE is also expected between the NT/QLD border and Burketown. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

GALES, with gusts to 120 km/h are occuring on Mornington Island, Sweers Island and expected to develop on the mainland coast between Port Roper in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland and on Groote Eylandt in the next few hours. GALES are expected to extend inland into the eastern Carpentaria, northern Barkly Districts and the northwest Gulf Country on Saturday morning. Inland locations which may be affected on Saturday and early Sunday include Doomadgee, Creswell Downs, Cape Crawford, Robinson River, McArthur River, Wollogorang and Brunette Downs.

HEAVY RAINFALL is likely to cause significant stream rises and localised flooding in the eastern Carpentaria District from early Saturday. A Flood Watch has been issued for Carpentaria Coastal Rivers and the Barkly in the Northern Territory.

HEAVY RAINFALL will also develop over the western Gulf Country in Queensland as the cyclone moves inland tomorrow. Flood Warnings are current in Queensland for the Daintree and Mossman Rivers, as well as a broader Flood Watch for catchments north of Cairns to Kowanyama, the western Gulf Country, and the Channel Country.

Recommended Action:

People between the NT/QLD border and Burketown, and in areas extending inland to Doomadgee, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place, especially securing boats and property.

– Information is available from your local government.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises:

Residents from Alyangula to NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt and Borroloola

-Prepare you home and yard for severe cyclone;

-Follow direction and advice of local emergency services;

communities under Watch:

-Prepare for wet and windy conditions and consider the situation when the cyclone travels far inland;

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au. Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Details:

Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 22 3 15.0S 138.9E 30
+6hr 4 am March 23 4 15.4S 138.3E 50
+12hr 10 am March 23 4 15.9S 137.6E 70
+18hr 4 pm March 23 3 16.4S 136.8E 95
+24hr 10 pm March 23 2 17.0S 136.1E 120
+36hr 10 am March 24 tropical low 18.6S 135.1E 155
+48hr 10 pm March 24 tropical low 20.1S 135.1E 190
+60hr 10 am March 25 tropical low 21.3S 135.8E 230
+72hr 10 pm March 25 tropical low 21.7S 137.3E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am ACST Saturday

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA is currently located near 18.1 S 116.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 95 kts (109 mph). VERONICA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. VERONICA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Hurricane Scale) or above winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:15S139E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1334UTC 22 MARCH 2019

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal zero south (15.0S)
longitude one hundred and thirty eight decimal nine east (138.9E)
Recent movement : southwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 962 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 100 knots by 0000 UTC
23 March.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.9 south 137.6 east
Central pressure 944 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 17.0 south 136.1 east (over
land)
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 22 March 2019.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Palau/ Philippines/ WestPacific: Tropical Depression THREE 03W 16/1500Z position near 7.3N 137.0E, moving W 12kt (JTWC) – Published 15 Mar 2019 1912Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression THREE (03W)

“CHEDENG” in Philippines

Palau and Philippines beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET _ JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

wp0319

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 7.4N 137.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N 137.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 7.2N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 7.0N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 6.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 6.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 6.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 137.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
EAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

PAGASA logoPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Cyclone Advisory # 2

Tropical Depression

Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 March 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11 AM Tomorrow)
Synopsis

The Tropical Depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) continues to move generally westward over the sea in western Caroline Islands

Location of Center  (8:00 AM today)

The center of the Tropical Depression was estimated based on all available data at 1,505 km East of Mindanao (OUTSIDE PAR)(07.8°N,140.0°E)

Maximum Sustained Winds

45 km/h near the center

Gustiness

Up to 60 km/h

Movement

West at 20 km/h

tca
Forecast Positions and Intensities
Tomorrow morning
17 March 2019
970 km East of Mindanao () (OUTSIDE PAR) (07.6°N, 135.1°E)
Tropical Depression
Monday morning
18 March 2019
485 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (07.3°N, 130.6°E)
Tropical Depression
Tuesday morning
19 March 2019
In the vicinity of Manay, Davao Oriental (07.2°N, 126.5°E)
Tropical Depression
The Tropical Depression may enter the PAR between late evening tonight and tomorrow morning. Once inside the PAR, it will be named “CHEDENG”. Scattered to at times widespread heavy rains may be experienced over parts of Mindanao on Monday and Tuesday due to this weather disturbance. Residents in these areas, especially those living in areas at high risk of flooding and landslides, and the concerned disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to continue monitoring for updates. This weather disturbance may make landfall over the eastern coast of Davao Oriental between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. However, there remains a possibility that this Tropical Depression will weaken into a Low Pressure Area before coming onshore.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to monitor for the next update to be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast at 4 PM today and 4 AM tomorrow. The next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 40N 152E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 152E TO 40N 154E 40N 155E.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 155E TO 37N 160E 35N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 155E TO 37N 156E 30N 152E 25N 145E 23N 141E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 6 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 42N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 44N 168E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 1010 HPA AT 44N 145E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK EAST CHINA SEA
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 170E
47N 180E 35N 180E 30N 170E 30N 150E 37N 156E 40N 150E 40N 143E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 41N 126E SE 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 56N 146E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 51N 167E EAST 25 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 59N 179E ESE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 137E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 28N 125E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 32N 173E ESE 25 KT.
REMARKS.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: Crew rescued from French fishing vessel, La Fanette, off Lands End – Published 15 Mar 2019 1600z (GMT/UTC)

Six crew from a fishing vessel in distress were airlifted from their disabled vessel off Lands End in atrocious weather conditions over night on 12th March.

 

HM Coastguard was alerted at around 10pm on Tuesday night to the 24 metre French registered fishing vessel, La Fanette which had suffered engine failure. Another fishing vessel went to assist and HM Coastguard requested the launch of Sennen Cove RNLI lifeboat. Despite atrocious weather, Sennen Cove lifeboat launched but due to 5-6 metre waves on scene and storm force winds, it was impossible for either the fishing vessel or the lifeboat to establish a tow with La Fanette. Penlee RNLI all weather lifeboat also attended.

The six crew on board were airlifted from the fishing vessel by Newquay coastguard rescue helicopter.

Speaking after this morning’s incredible rescue, Captain Sharky Finn from Newquay coastguard helicopter said: ‘This is definitely one of the most challenging jobs we’ve seen at Newquay. We were flying into a force 8 gale with 20ft high waves swirling beneath us and we could clearly see the fishing vessel disappearing beneath the swell as we approached.

‘We had the support of RNLI Sennen Cove on scene who had tried to establish a tow line but were unable to do so because of the severe weather conditions.

‘We tried a variety of different winching positions as the fishing vessel pitched and rolled violently underneath us before lowering a hi-line and then our winchman to the bow. The only way we could do this was turn the helicopter 90 degrees out of winds which meant we were effectively flying sideways. Needless to say, it was very challenging deck; it stretched the capabilities of both the crew and the aircraft. However, despite this pressure we were able to take our time and safely recovered all six crewmates and our winchman to the aircraft before returning to the Newquay base. We’re grateful for the support of the Newquay coastguard rescue team and the Newlyn seaman’s mission who met us when we returned.’

Athough weather conditions are still quite rough due to Storm Gareth the sister vessel ‘Faradet’ has successfully established a tow with the ‘La Fanette’ and it is now safely under tow proceeding to rendezvous with a French tug on route from Brest.

There has been no pollution reported however HM Coastguard will continue to monitor the vessel whilst it’s in UK waters.

Statement from Sennen Cove Lifeboat Station

“Wednesday 13th March
The lifeboat launched just after midnight to assist the French trawler La Fanette, disabled, with 6 persons on board, some 10 miles west-northwest of Sennen Cove.
The lifeboat arrived with the trawler an hour later in severe conditions with a swell peaking near 20ft (roughly a two-storey house) and winds gusting to over 70mph.
Another trawler had attempted to pass a tow without success. After careful consideration the lifeboat crew decided that the risk of incurring damage and / or injuries to the crew in attempting to pass a tow – and subsequently attempting to tow the trawler – was too great, and the lifeboat stood by the vessel.
The rate of drift would have put the trawler ashore in roughly three hours. With this in mind, the vessel`s crew deployed their trawling gear and warps, which dramatically reduced the rate of drift and stabilised the situation.
Having consulted within their organisation at the highest level; also with counter-pollution authorities, the trawler`s owners and insurers, the Coastguard advised that the crew would be evacuated by helicopter.
In what the lifeboat crew described as a brilliant piece of flying, the 6 crewmen were evacuated by the coastguard helicopter – the operation has been widely described elsewhere on facebook and other media.
Penlee lifeboat had also been launched around 0330 to provide further cover to the overall operation, and endured a very poor passage around the Runnelstone and The Longships.
With the trawler`s crew safe, the lifeboats were released roughly around 0500 and both lifeboats proceeded to Newlyn, as conditions were way too poor for recovery at Sennen Cove.
The trawler was left anchored by her fishing gear. She dragged this over a few miles and was eventually taken in tow in slightly improved conditions by her sister trawler later in the afternoon and towed back to France.

Whilst this station traditionally does not seek publicity and is happy just to `get on with it`, working out of one of the most hazardous locations in the country, this event must not be left to pass without heaping huge praise on our crew. The conditions on Wednesday morning were very likely the worst that Sennen Cove Lifeboat has launched into since the `Julian Paul` job in 1994 – and may very well have been more severe than that night.
Wednesday`s crew … Ollie George; Richard Brown; Dan Shannon; Kirstan Gorvin; Jason Woodward; Nick Hichens; Tom Nicholas … did a superb job. Each and every one of you should be hugely proud – you are a great credit both to the Station and the RNLI.”

 

Mozambique/ Zimbabwe: Intense Tropical Cyclone IDAI 18S 141500Z position near 19.9S 35.9E, moving W 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 14 Mar 2019 1742Z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone IDAI (11,18S)

IDAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 18S (Idai) Warning #22
Issued at 14/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTXS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 19.9S 36.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 36.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 19.7S 34.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 19.3S 33.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 18.8S 31.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 18.3S 30.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 35.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 141129Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT A 45NM ROUND EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO 5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW DESPITE THE WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. SST VALUES (27-28C) HAVE
COOLED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 12 BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT
DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVERLAND. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 12, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

METEO FRANCE  La Réunion

 

Bulletin of March 14 at 16:12 local Réunion:

INTENSE IDAI TROPICAL CYCLONE. Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 185 km / h. Estimated pressure in the center: 955 hPa. Position March 14 at 16:00 local Meeting: 19.9 South / 36.2 East.Distance of the Reunion coast: 1980 km to the sector: WESTDistance from Mayotte: 1230 km to the sector: SOUTH-WESTMove: WEST, 15 km / h.This bulletin is now completed.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see right menu) for predictions on this system.

Bulletin du 14 mars à 16H12 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE IDAI.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 165 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 185 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 955 hPa.Position le 14 mars à 16 heures locales Réunion: 19.9 Sud / 36.2 Est.Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1980 km au secteur: OUESTDistance de Mayotte: 1230 km au secteur: SUD-OUESTDéplacement: OUEST, à 15 km/h.Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Mar, 2019 12:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone IDAI is currently located near 19.9 S 36.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). IDAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. IDAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mozambique
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zimbabwe
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Machece (19.2 S, 35.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beira (19.8 S, 34.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nova Sofala (20.1 S, 34.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Chimoio (19.1 S, 33.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Nova Mambone (21.0 S, 35.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chinde (18.8 S, 36.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Inhassore (21.5 S, 35.1 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Quelimane (17.9 S, 36.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO24 FMEE 141214
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 36.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 32.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South-West Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone HALEH(10,17S) 04/1800Z 19.2S 72.4E, moving SSW 06kt (948hpa at 1200Z)(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 04 Mar 2019 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone HALEH (10,17S)

HALEH is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43 FEET – JTWC

 

 

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

trajectoire

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT – RSMC La Réunion

Bulletin of 04 March at 16:10 Réunion:

TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE HALEH. Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 240 km / h. Estimated pressure at the center: 948 hPa. Position March 04 at 16:00 local Réunion: 18.6 South / 72.7 East.Distance from the Reunion coast: 1785 km to the sector: ESTDistance from Mayotte: 3010 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EASTLocation: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, 13 km /h.This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see menu on the right) for forecasts on this system

WTIO31 FMEE 041252 CMRS / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF THE RéunionCOUNT OF ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 13/10 / 201820191.

A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 04/03/2019: IN A RADIUS OF 20 NM AROUND 18.6 S / 72.7 E (EIGHTEENTH DEGREES SIX SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVENTY TWO DEGREES SEAS EAST) DISPLACEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5 / 5.5 / D 1.0 / 12 H4.A CENTER PRESSURE: 948 HPA5.WIND MAX (MEDIUM / 10 NM): 90 MAXIMUM WINDS KTRAYON (RVM): 28 KM6.A WIND EXTENSION BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KW SE: 280 SE: 430 S: 430 NO: 19034 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 13048 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 9064 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 507.A COAST / DIAM FIRST ISOBARE CLOSED: 1001 HPA / 400 KM8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: PROFONDE1.B FORECAST: 12H: 05/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E , WIND MAX = 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE24H: 05/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 095 KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE36H: 06/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, WIND MAX = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE48H: 06/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIN = 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL60H: 07/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIN = 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE72H: 07/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIN = 060 KT, STRONG TROPICAL STORM2.B FUTURE TREND: 96H: 08/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND = 050 KT, STRONG TROPICAL STORM120H: 09/03/2019 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, LOW PRESSURE POST-TROPICAL.C COMMENTS:
T = CI = 5.5 OVER 6 HOURS, CLOUDY CONFIGURATION HAS REMAINED WELL THAN WITH WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SOUTH AREA. THIS WEAKNESS INDICATES A DVORAK ANALYSIS LIMITING THE CI TO 5.5. 1130UTC MICROWAVE DATA LEAVE THIS WEAKNESS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION.THE SHORTLY EXPECTED FORECAST FOR A SHORTLY EXPECTED TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY MORE TRAJECTORY TO THE WEST THAN INITIALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PUSH OF A NEW RIDGE THAT IS SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE TALWEG PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH, THIS RIDGE WILL REPEATLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST, FOSTERING A MORE SOUTHLY TRACK FROM THURSDAY / FRIDAY. AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AWARE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE SUCCESSFUL TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW BEFORE THE ALTITUDE TALWEG THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A GOOD POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL. FROM WEDNESDAY, HALEH WILL LOCATE UNDER A MODERN VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN KNOW A SLOW WEAKENING. FROM THURSDAY WEAKNESS SHOULD BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT

Bulletin du 04 mars à 16H10 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE HALEH.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 165 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 240 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 948 hPa.Position le 04 mars à 16 heures locales Réunion: 18.6 Sud / 72.7 Est.Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1785 km au secteur: ESTDistance de Mayotte: 3010 km au secteur: EST-SUD-ESTDéplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 13 km/h.Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système

WTIO31 FMEE 041252 CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNIONBULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/201820191.

A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (HALEH) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/03/2019 :DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES SEPT EST)DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KTRAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):28 KT NE: 280 SE: 430 SO: 430 NO: 19034 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 13048 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 9064 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 507.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 400 KM8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE1.B PREVISIONS:12H: 05/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE24H: 05/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE36H: 06/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE48H: 06/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL60H: 07/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL72H: 07/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:96H: 08/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE120H: 09/03/2019 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5DURANT LES 6 HEURES PASSEES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL S’EST MAINTENUE BIEN QUE PRESENTANT UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST A SUD. CETTE FAIBLESSE INDUIT UNE ANALYSE DE DVORAK LIMITANT LE CI A 5.5. LES DONNES MICRO-ONDES DE 1130UTC LAISSENT SUPPOSER DE CETTE FAIBLESSE N’EST QUE TEMPORAIRE ET QUE LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE HALEH DEVRAIT CONTINUER SA LENTE INTENSIFICATION.LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU A COURTE ECHEANCE, A L’EXCEPTION D’UNE TRAJECTOIRE LEGEREMENT PLUS A L’OUEST QU’INITIALEMENT SOUS L’EFFET DE LA POUSSEE D’UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE QUI VIENT SE GLISSER PAR LE SUD-OUEST. AVEC LE PASSAGE DU TALWEG BIEN AU SUD, CETTE DORSALE VA DE NOUVEAU FAIBLIR ET SE DECALER A L’EST, FAVORISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD A PARTIR DE JEUDI/VENDREDI. EN FIN D’ECHEANCES, LA TRAJECTOIRE EST PREVUE S’ACCELERER.LE SYSTEME CONNAIT ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES POUR POURSUIVRE SA LENTE INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DEVRAIT RESTER FAIBLE A L’AVANT DU TALWEG D’ALTITUDE QUI CONTINUE DE FOURNIR UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D’ALTITUDE PAR UN BON CANAL POLAIRE D’EVACUATION. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HALEH VA SE LOCALISER SOUS UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE DE NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAITRE UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, L’AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS SIGNIFICATIF AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN HAUSSE ET UN CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Haleh) Warning #10
Issued at 04/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 18.7S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 72.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 19.6S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 20.6S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 21.6S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 22.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 26.1S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 30.0S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 34.8S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 25-30 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST SIX HOURS AND THE CLOUD FIELD HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SYMMETRIC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE MSI LOOP
AND AN EYE FEATURE IN A 041130Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17S WILL TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AROUND TAU 96, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS TC 17S ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THROUGH
TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE AND THE
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN AT 100 KTS OR GREATER THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AFTER TAU 48, A COMBINATION OF DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, INCREASED VWS,
AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN, FALLING TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TC 17S
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
LIES EAST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF
NAVGEM, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE BULK OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO20 FMEE 041805
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
21.3 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

FQIO26 FIMP 041245

2:31:08:11:00

PAN PAN

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII (S) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS ISSUED ON MONDAY 04 MARCH 2019 AT 1245 UTC.

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH.

HALEH HAS INTENSIFIED INTO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

AT 04/1200UTC INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE

948 HPA WAS CENTERED WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E

EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN

DEGREES EAST).

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 07 KT

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 160 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTE

RN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS AT 1200 UTC THIS MONDAY 04 MARCH 2019.

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 05S 56S, 07S 65E, 09S 73E.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 948 HPA NEAR 18.6S AND 72.7E. MOVEMENT

SOUTH SOUTH WEST 07 KNOTS.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 04S 87E, 05S 91E, 07S 95E.

WAVE NEAR 09S 57E.

HIGH 1023 HPA NEAR 40S 54E.

HIGH 1035 HPA NEAR 40S 103E.

PART 3: AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS VALID UP TO TUESDAY 05 MARCH

2019 AT 1200 UTC.

NORTH EAST 8/1 AND EXTREME NORTH WEST 8/2: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF

PART 1.

REMAINING 8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 20-25 IN SOUTH EAST. SOUTH

EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 10-20 IN NORTH WEST. EAST SOUTH

EASTERLY BACKING TO NORTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH WEST. SEA ROUGH

BECOMING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH TOWARDS ITC ‘HALEH’. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN

EAST, ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY GOOD BECOMING MODERATE

IN SHOWERS.

REMAINING 8/2: EASTERLY TO EAST NORTH EASTERLY 20-25 IN NORTH.

EASTERLY 20 IN SOUTH, LOCALLY GUSTING 25 IN SOUTH WEST. SEA ROUGH

BECOMING VERY ROUGH IN NORTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTOR

S MAINLY IN NORTH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS, BECOMING POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

SOUTH EAST 8/3: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

REMAINING 8/3: SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH WEST.

SOUTHERLY VEERING TO WEST NORTH WESTERLY 10-20 ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY

GUSTING 25 IN NORTH EAST. SEA ROUGH BECOMING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN

SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN EAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

VISIBILITY GOOD IN WEST BECOMING MODERATE TO POOR IN EAST.

8/4: NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 20-25 IN EXTREME NORTH WEST VEERING TO

NORTH NORTH EASTERLY 25 IN SOUTH WEST. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH

EASTERLY 15-20 IN EXTREME EAST BACKING TO NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN

CENTRAL PART. SEA ROUGH IN WEST AND SOUTH EAST, MODERATE ELSEWHERE.

LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH

THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN WEST. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING

POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/5: NORTHERLY TO NORTH WESTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. NORTH WESTERLY TO

WESTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN

SOUTH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

8/6: NORTHERLY 10-15 IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. VARIABLE 05-10 IN

REMAINING WEST. SOUTHERLY 05 IN SOUTH EAST VEERING TO WESTERLY 10-15

ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

S. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/7: VARIABLE 05 IN SOUTH EAST. NORTHERLY TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 05

IN NORTH EAST. NORTHERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 05-10 IN WEST. SEA

MODERATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY GOOD.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

ITC ‘HALEH’ IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTH SOUTH WESTERLY

DIRECTION WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED

IN 8/1.

END=

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