Rodrigues (Mauritius)/ Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA 22S 26/1500Z positon near 19.6S 65.2E, moving ESE 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Mar 2019 1813Z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA (13, 22S)

Joaninha is a Category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 38 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Joaninha) Warning #19
Issued at 26/1500Z

sh2219-1

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
261200Z — NEAR 19.5S 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 65.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 19.9S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 20.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 20.7S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 21.3S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 23.2S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 25.6S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 27.7S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A 15-NM WIDE EYE AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE MSI AND
AN EYE FEATURE IN A 261146Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 22S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE
TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 96,
INCREASED BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 22S TO BEGIN
TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 100 KTS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 45 KTS BY TAU 120.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD (OVER 450 NM BY TAU 12) IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF AND GALWEM BEING THE WESTERNMOST AND
EASTERNMOST MEMBERS, RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) FOR FINAL WARNING
ON THAT SYSTEM (WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

 

Bulletin du 26 mars à 16H23 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JOANINHA.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 185 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 260 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 942 hPa.Position le 26 mars à 16 heures locales Réunion: 19.5 Sud / 64.8 Est.Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 955 km au secteur: ESTDistance de Mayotte: 2230 km au secteur: EST-SUD-ESTDéplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 11 km/h.Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système

 

Bulletin of March 26 at 16:23 local Réunion:

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOANINHA.Vents maximum (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 185 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 260 km / h. Estimated pressure in the center: 942 hPa. Position on March 26 at 4 pm Réunion: 19.5 South / 64.8 East.Distance from the Reunion coast: 955 km to the area: EASTMayotte: 2230 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTHEAST: EAST-SOUTHEAST, 11 km /h.This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see menu on the right) for forecasts on this system

 

METEOSAT Imagery

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2019 0:00 GMT

 

Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA is currently located near 19.1 S 63.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). JOANINHA is a category 3 (Edit: Now CAT 4) storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. JOANINHA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Scale) or above winds

 

Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 4 (major)

130-156 mph

113-136 kt

209-251 km/h

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO20 FMEE 261225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 64.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
20.6 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Tropical Storm IBA 26/1200Z near 20.7S 037.7W (estimated), moving S ~05kt 1002hpa (BNHC Brazil data) – Published 26 Mar 2019 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm IBA

A rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic off the southeast coast of Brazil

GOES 16 Image

2019-03-26 16:10:19 UTC

GOES16 IBA.png

xxx

 

Centro de

Hidrografia da Marinha

Marinha do Brasil

Warnings

SPECIAL WARNING

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

AREA ALFA

WARNING NR 207/2019
ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – SUN – 24/MAR/2019
AREA ALFA STARTING AT 250000 UTC. WAVES FM SW/SE 3.0/4.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 213/2019
HIGH SURF  WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
HIGH SURF BETWEEN CHUÍ (RS) AND TRAMANDAÍ (RS) STARTING AT 261200 UTC. WAVES FROM SE 2.5 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 271200 UTC.

AREA DELTA

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

WARNING NR 214/2019
ROUGH/VERY ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA N OF 23S AND E OF 040W STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WAVES FM E/NE 3.0/5.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 216/2019
HIGH SURF  WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
HIGH SURF BETWEEN MARATAÍZES (ES) AND LINHARES (ES) STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WAVES FROM SE 2.5 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 218/2019
SEVERE GALE/STORM WARNING
ISSUED AT 2200 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA N OF 23S STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WIND SE/NE E OF 037W AND SW/SE BETWEEN 037W AND 040W FORCE 9/10 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 271200 UTC.
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 212/2019.

WARNING NR 219/2019
ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – TUE – 26/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA E OF 039W STARTING AT 270000 UTC. WAVES FM SE/NE BECOMING SW/SE 3.0/4.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 281200 UTC.

WARNING NR 220/2019
NEAR GALE/SEVERE GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – TUE – 26/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA E OF 038W STARTING AT 271200 UTC. WIND SW/SE FORCE 7/9 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 281200 UTC.

AREA ECHO

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

WARNING NR 215/2019
NEAR GALE/GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA ECHO S OF 18S STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WIND NE/NW FORCE 7/8 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 261800 UTC.

FQST02 SBBR 260230
1 31 05 02 12 20

 

Page 1
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK AND SUPPLY
National Institute of Meteorology – INMET
Monumental Axis – Via S1 – Southwest – 70680-900 – Brasília-DF – Phone: + (55) (61) 2102-4602 – Fax: + (55) (61) 2102-4620
NOTE 2: TROPICAL STORM “IBA”
Bra Sília, March 25, 2019
The Brazilian Navy, through the Center for Hydrography of the Navy (CHM) and in collaboration
with the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and the Center for Forecasting Weather and Studies
(CPTEC / INPE), participates that Tropical Storm “Iba” is located on the high seas, with
center in the geographical position 19,9ºS 037,3ºW, at the height of the coast referring to the city of Linhares
(ES), extending between the southern coast of the state of Bahia and northern Espírito Santo, and presented
maximum intensity of the winds of 101 km / h (55 knots) at 15:00 on the 25th, in a circle of 185
Km around the position of its center, therefore only in the maritime region. Your displacement
continues predominantly to the South, with a slight component to the West until the 25th
night, when it is expected that it will move with a light component to the East until the 26th
night, away from the coast. Its effects can continue to be felt on the southern coast of the state
Bahia and Espírito Santo until the 26th at night, when it is expected that it will not influence the coast
south of Bahia and also influence the northern coast of Rio de Janeiro. Will be issued new
update until the end of day 26.
Strong winds are expected between the northern coast of the state of Rio de Janeiro and the south coast
of Bahia, reaching 101 km / h (55 knots) on the high seas in the east sector of the cyclone, and 61 km / h (33
us) by the coast, between the 25th at night and the 26th at night. There is forecast of thick sea to very thick
on the same stretch of coastline, with wave heights between 3.0 and 5.0 meters at sea, between day 25
in the evening and in the evening at night. There is a possibility of hangover reaching the coast between Vitoria
(ES) and Caravelas (BA), with waves up to 2,5 meters, until the 25th at night, and between Marataízes (ES)
and Linhares (ES), between the 25th at night and the 26th at night. The severe weather condition caused
by this system will occur mainly on the high seas, associated with heavy rain.

Page 2
Monumental Axis – Via S1 – Southwest – 70680-900 – Brasília-DF – Phone: + (55) (61) 2102-4602 – Fax: + (55) (61) 2102-4620
The Brazilian Navy maintains all the bad weather warnings in force at the electronic address
The Brazilian Navy, INMET and CPTEC / INPE will accompany the formation and performance of this
system in the next few days and updates will be posted on the sites:
Facebook, under “@servicometeorologicomb” and “@inpe.cptec”. The information can also be
accessed through the “Bulletin to the Sea” application, which is available for download at
Internet, both for the Android system and for IOS, developed in partnership between the Navy
of Brazil and the Institute Towards the Sea (RUMAR)

 

Other Sources

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA): Tropical Cyclone VERONICA 25/1800Z near 20.5S 116.4E, moving WSW ~4.8kt. (BoM) – Updated 25 Mar 2019 1920Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA 21S

Tropical Cyclone Veronica, near Dampier, weakening as it moves steadily westwards.

Warning zone: Dampier to Mardie, including the Burrup Peninsula.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Roebourne to Dampier, including Karratha.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 11 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Veronica

Issued at 2:50 am AWST Tuesday 26 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 69.

 

Community Threat

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Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Veronica, near Dampier, weakening as it moves steadily westwards.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Dampier to Mardie, including the Burrup Peninsula.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Roebourne to Dampier, including Karratha.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Veronica at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.5 degrees South, 116.4 degrees East , 35 kilometres west northwest of Dampier and 55 kilometres west northwest of Karratha .
Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Veronica is a Category 1 system and is weakening as it moves towards the west southwest. It is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity in the next three to six hours.

Hazards:

Widespread, very heavy rainfall conducive to MAJOR FLOODING is likely over the central Pilbara coast and adjacent inland areas, easing gradually during Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected to result in significant river rises, areas of flooding and hazardous road conditions. Some roads may become impassable and some communities may become isolated. Flood Warnings and Watches are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring at exposed coastal locations near Dampier. Gales could extend west towards Mardie in the next three to six hours before the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near communities between Mardie and Whim Creek including Whim Creek, Point Samson, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier need to remain in shelter until the all clear is given.

ALL CLEAR: All Clear with caution for people between the communities of Whim Creek and Port Hedland (not including Whim Creek or Mardie) and people in or near communities of the inland Pilbara, Barrow Island, Pannawonica and surrounding areas are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am March 26 1 20.5S 116.4E 30
+6hr 8 am March 26 tropical low 20.7S 115.7E 50
+12hr 2 pm March 26 tropical low 21.0S 114.9E 70
+18hr 8 pm March 26 tropical low 21.3S 114.1E 95
+24hr 2 am March 27 tropical low 21.5S 113.3E 120
+36hr 2 pm March 27 tropical low 21.8S 112.1E 155
+48hr 2 am March 28 tropical low 21.8S 111.1E 190
+60hr 2 pm March 28 tropical low 21.3S 109.8E 230
+72hr 2 am March 29 tropical low 20.6S 108.4E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Tuesday

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2019 6:00 GMT

 

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 25 Mar, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VERONICA is currently located near 20.4 S 116.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). VERONICA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
    Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Veronica) Warning #24
Issued at 25/1500Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 20.4S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 116.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 20.8S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 21.4S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 22.1S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, BETWEEN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AIRPORT AND OTHER LOCAL STATIONS
APPROXIMATELY 20-25 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH REPORT 33-35 KTS OF
SUSTAINED WINDS, AND MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KTS). TC 21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WITH HIGH VWS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID WEAKENING
AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION, HIGH VWS, AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH OF LEARMONTH, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED
EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH. OVERALL,
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 100NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:20S117E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1235UTC 25 MARCH 2019

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Veronica was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal five south (20.5S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal nine east (116.9E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 989 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 26
March and to 25 knots by 1200 UTC 26 March.

Winds above 34 knots within 45 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.8 south 115.4 east near
the coast
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 21.4 south 113.8 east near
the coast
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 March 2019.

WEATHER PERTH
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (QLD/NT): Severe Tropical Cyclone TREVOR 20P 22/1500Z position near 15.2S 138.5E, moving WSW 04kt (JTWC) Intensifying! – Updated 22 Mar 2019 1637Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor 20P

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to Australian Category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning (BoM)

Trevor is currently a Category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a Category 3 storm on the same scale by 23 Mar, 0:00 (TSR data)

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba (BoM)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Trevor) Warning #20
Issued at 22/1500Z

sh2019

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221200Z — NEAR 15.0S 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 138.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 15.9S 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 17.1S 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 18.4S 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 20.0S 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD A
PINHOLE BUT PROMINENT EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT STACKED DIRECTLY OVER A
COMPACT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS TO T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW, ADRM, AND
KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA JUST AFTER TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 36, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD DEEPER INTO THE AUSTRALIAN
OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
GOC WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM UP TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor

Issued at 11:34 pm AEST Friday 22 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 43.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor at 10:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South, 138.9 degrees East , 185 kilometres north of Mornington Is and 305 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is forecast to cross the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border Saturday morning with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts to 275 km/h near the cyclone centre as it approaches and crosses the coast.

Coastal residents between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING during Friday night and Saturday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a STORM TIDE is also expected between the NT/QLD border and Burketown. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

GALES, with gusts to 120 km/h are occuring on Mornington Island, Sweers Island and expected to develop on the mainland coast between Port Roper in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland and on Groote Eylandt in the next few hours. GALES are expected to extend inland into the eastern Carpentaria, northern Barkly Districts and the northwest Gulf Country on Saturday morning. Inland locations which may be affected on Saturday and early Sunday include Doomadgee, Creswell Downs, Cape Crawford, Robinson River, McArthur River, Wollogorang and Brunette Downs.

HEAVY RAINFALL is likely to cause significant stream rises and localised flooding in the eastern Carpentaria District from early Saturday. A Flood Watch has been issued for Carpentaria Coastal Rivers and the Barkly in the Northern Territory.

HEAVY RAINFALL will also develop over the western Gulf Country in Queensland as the cyclone moves inland tomorrow. Flood Warnings are current in Queensland for the Daintree and Mossman Rivers, as well as a broader Flood Watch for catchments north of Cairns to Kowanyama, the western Gulf Country, and the Channel Country.

Recommended Action:

People between the NT/QLD border and Burketown, and in areas extending inland to Doomadgee, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place, especially securing boats and property.

– Information is available from your local government.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises:

Residents from Alyangula to NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt and Borroloola

-Prepare you home and yard for severe cyclone;

-Follow direction and advice of local emergency services;

communities under Watch:

-Prepare for wet and windy conditions and consider the situation when the cyclone travels far inland;

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au. Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 22 3 15.0S 138.9E 30
+6hr 4 am March 23 4 15.4S 138.3E 50
+12hr 10 am March 23 4 15.9S 137.6E 70
+18hr 4 pm March 23 3 16.4S 136.8E 95
+24hr 10 pm March 23 2 17.0S 136.1E 120
+36hr 10 am March 24 tropical low 18.6S 135.1E 155
+48hr 10 pm March 24 tropical low 20.1S 135.1E 190
+60hr 10 am March 25 tropical low 21.3S 135.8E 230
+72hr 10 pm March 25 tropical low 21.7S 137.3E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:30 am AEST Saturday

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor

Issued at 10:58 pm ACST Friday 22 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 43.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor at 9:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South, 138.9 degrees East , 185 kilometres north of Mornington Is and 305 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is forecast to cross the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border Saturday morning with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts to 275 km/h near the cyclone centre as it approaches and crosses the coast.

Coastal residents between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING during Friday night and Saturday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a STORM TIDE is also expected between the NT/QLD border and Burketown. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

GALES, with gusts to 120 km/h are occuring on Mornington Island, Sweers Island and expected to develop on the mainland coast between Port Roper in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland and on Groote Eylandt in the next few hours. GALES are expected to extend inland into the eastern Carpentaria, northern Barkly Districts and the northwest Gulf Country on Saturday morning. Inland locations which may be affected on Saturday and early Sunday include Doomadgee, Creswell Downs, Cape Crawford, Robinson River, McArthur River, Wollogorang and Brunette Downs.

HEAVY RAINFALL is likely to cause significant stream rises and localised flooding in the eastern Carpentaria District from early Saturday. A Flood Watch has been issued for Carpentaria Coastal Rivers and the Barkly in the Northern Territory.

HEAVY RAINFALL will also develop over the western Gulf Country in Queensland as the cyclone moves inland tomorrow. Flood Warnings are current in Queensland for the Daintree and Mossman Rivers, as well as a broader Flood Watch for catchments north of Cairns to Kowanyama, the western Gulf Country, and the Channel Country.

Recommended Action:

People between the NT/QLD border and Burketown, and in areas extending inland to Doomadgee, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place, especially securing boats and property.

– Information is available from your local government.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises:

Residents from Alyangula to NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt and Borroloola

-Prepare you home and yard for severe cyclone;

-Follow direction and advice of local emergency services;

communities under Watch:

-Prepare for wet and windy conditions and consider the situation when the cyclone travels far inland;

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au. Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Details:

Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 22 3 15.0S 138.9E 30
+6hr 4 am March 23 4 15.4S 138.3E 50
+12hr 10 am March 23 4 15.9S 137.6E 70
+18hr 4 pm March 23 3 16.4S 136.8E 95
+24hr 10 pm March 23 2 17.0S 136.1E 120
+36hr 10 am March 24 tropical low 18.6S 135.1E 155
+48hr 10 pm March 24 tropical low 20.1S 135.1E 190
+60hr 10 am March 25 tropical low 21.3S 135.8E 230
+72hr 10 pm March 25 tropical low 21.7S 137.3E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am ACST Saturday

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA is currently located near 18.1 S 116.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 95 kts (109 mph). VERONICA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. VERONICA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Hurricane Scale) or above winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:15S139E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1334UTC 22 MARCH 2019

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal zero south (15.0S)
longitude one hundred and thirty eight decimal nine east (138.9E)
Recent movement : southwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 962 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 100 knots by 0000 UTC
23 March.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.9 south 137.6 east
Central pressure 944 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 17.0 south 136.1 east (over
land)
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 22 March 2019.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Palau/ Philippines/ WestPacific: Tropical Depression THREE 03W 16/1500Z position near 7.3N 137.0E, moving W 12kt (JTWC) – Published 15 Mar 2019 1912Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression THREE (03W)

“CHEDENG” in Philippines

Palau and Philippines beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET _ JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

wp0319

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 7.4N 137.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N 137.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 7.2N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 7.0N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 6.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 6.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 6.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 137.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
EAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

PAGASA logoPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Cyclone Advisory # 2

Tropical Depression

Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 March 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11 AM Tomorrow)
Synopsis

The Tropical Depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) continues to move generally westward over the sea in western Caroline Islands

Location of Center  (8:00 AM today)

The center of the Tropical Depression was estimated based on all available data at 1,505 km East of Mindanao (OUTSIDE PAR)(07.8°N,140.0°E)

Maximum Sustained Winds

45 km/h near the center

Gustiness

Up to 60 km/h

Movement

West at 20 km/h

tca
Forecast Positions and Intensities
Tomorrow morning
17 March 2019
970 km East of Mindanao () (OUTSIDE PAR) (07.6°N, 135.1°E)
Tropical Depression
Monday morning
18 March 2019
485 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (07.3°N, 130.6°E)
Tropical Depression
Tuesday morning
19 March 2019
In the vicinity of Manay, Davao Oriental (07.2°N, 126.5°E)
Tropical Depression
The Tropical Depression may enter the PAR between late evening tonight and tomorrow morning. Once inside the PAR, it will be named “CHEDENG”. Scattered to at times widespread heavy rains may be experienced over parts of Mindanao on Monday and Tuesday due to this weather disturbance. Residents in these areas, especially those living in areas at high risk of flooding and landslides, and the concerned disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to continue monitoring for updates. This weather disturbance may make landfall over the eastern coast of Davao Oriental between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. However, there remains a possibility that this Tropical Depression will weaken into a Low Pressure Area before coming onshore.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to monitor for the next update to be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast at 4 PM today and 4 AM tomorrow. The next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 40N 152E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 152E TO 40N 154E 40N 155E.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 155E TO 37N 160E 35N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 155E TO 37N 156E 30N 152E 25N 145E 23N 141E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 6 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 42N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 44N 168E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 1010 HPA AT 44N 145E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK EAST CHINA SEA
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 170E
47N 180E 35N 180E 30N 170E 30N 150E 37N 156E 40N 150E 40N 143E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 41N 126E SE 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 56N 146E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 51N 167E EAST 25 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 59N 179E ESE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 137E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 28N 125E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 32N 173E ESE 25 KT.
REMARKS.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: Crew rescued from French fishing vessel, La Fanette, off Lands End – Published 15 Mar 2019 1600z (GMT/UTC)

Six crew from a fishing vessel in distress were airlifted from their disabled vessel off Lands End in atrocious weather conditions over night on 12th March.

 

HM Coastguard was alerted at around 10pm on Tuesday night to the 24 metre French registered fishing vessel, La Fanette which had suffered engine failure. Another fishing vessel went to assist and HM Coastguard requested the launch of Sennen Cove RNLI lifeboat. Despite atrocious weather, Sennen Cove lifeboat launched but due to 5-6 metre waves on scene and storm force winds, it was impossible for either the fishing vessel or the lifeboat to establish a tow with La Fanette. Penlee RNLI all weather lifeboat also attended.

The six crew on board were airlifted from the fishing vessel by Newquay coastguard rescue helicopter.

Speaking after this morning’s incredible rescue, Captain Sharky Finn from Newquay coastguard helicopter said: ‘This is definitely one of the most challenging jobs we’ve seen at Newquay. We were flying into a force 8 gale with 20ft high waves swirling beneath us and we could clearly see the fishing vessel disappearing beneath the swell as we approached.

‘We had the support of RNLI Sennen Cove on scene who had tried to establish a tow line but were unable to do so because of the severe weather conditions.

‘We tried a variety of different winching positions as the fishing vessel pitched and rolled violently underneath us before lowering a hi-line and then our winchman to the bow. The only way we could do this was turn the helicopter 90 degrees out of winds which meant we were effectively flying sideways. Needless to say, it was very challenging deck; it stretched the capabilities of both the crew and the aircraft. However, despite this pressure we were able to take our time and safely recovered all six crewmates and our winchman to the aircraft before returning to the Newquay base. We’re grateful for the support of the Newquay coastguard rescue team and the Newlyn seaman’s mission who met us when we returned.’

Athough weather conditions are still quite rough due to Storm Gareth the sister vessel ‘Faradet’ has successfully established a tow with the ‘La Fanette’ and it is now safely under tow proceeding to rendezvous with a French tug on route from Brest.

There has been no pollution reported however HM Coastguard will continue to monitor the vessel whilst it’s in UK waters.

Statement from Sennen Cove Lifeboat Station

“Wednesday 13th March
The lifeboat launched just after midnight to assist the French trawler La Fanette, disabled, with 6 persons on board, some 10 miles west-northwest of Sennen Cove.
The lifeboat arrived with the trawler an hour later in severe conditions with a swell peaking near 20ft (roughly a two-storey house) and winds gusting to over 70mph.
Another trawler had attempted to pass a tow without success. After careful consideration the lifeboat crew decided that the risk of incurring damage and / or injuries to the crew in attempting to pass a tow – and subsequently attempting to tow the trawler – was too great, and the lifeboat stood by the vessel.
The rate of drift would have put the trawler ashore in roughly three hours. With this in mind, the vessel`s crew deployed their trawling gear and warps, which dramatically reduced the rate of drift and stabilised the situation.
Having consulted within their organisation at the highest level; also with counter-pollution authorities, the trawler`s owners and insurers, the Coastguard advised that the crew would be evacuated by helicopter.
In what the lifeboat crew described as a brilliant piece of flying, the 6 crewmen were evacuated by the coastguard helicopter – the operation has been widely described elsewhere on facebook and other media.
Penlee lifeboat had also been launched around 0330 to provide further cover to the overall operation, and endured a very poor passage around the Runnelstone and The Longships.
With the trawler`s crew safe, the lifeboats were released roughly around 0500 and both lifeboats proceeded to Newlyn, as conditions were way too poor for recovery at Sennen Cove.
The trawler was left anchored by her fishing gear. She dragged this over a few miles and was eventually taken in tow in slightly improved conditions by her sister trawler later in the afternoon and towed back to France.

Whilst this station traditionally does not seek publicity and is happy just to `get on with it`, working out of one of the most hazardous locations in the country, this event must not be left to pass without heaping huge praise on our crew. The conditions on Wednesday morning were very likely the worst that Sennen Cove Lifeboat has launched into since the `Julian Paul` job in 1994 – and may very well have been more severe than that night.
Wednesday`s crew … Ollie George; Richard Brown; Dan Shannon; Kirstan Gorvin; Jason Woodward; Nick Hichens; Tom Nicholas … did a superb job. Each and every one of you should be hugely proud – you are a great credit both to the Station and the RNLI.”