Mexico/ US/ East Pacific/ Hurricane Eugene: 101000Z position nr 18.2N 116.7W, NW 08 kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Eugene (05E)

…EUGENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATERS…
…HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…(NHC FL)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 31 FEET. (JTWC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 05E (Eugene) Warning #11
Issued at 10/1000Z

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 17.7N 116.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 116.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 19.3N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 20.7N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 22.1N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 23.3N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 25.5N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 27.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 28.5N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 116.7W.
HURRICANE 05E (EUGENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 901 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.//
NNNN

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 100848
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eugene Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017

…EUGENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATERS…
…HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.1N 116.5W
ABOUT 540 MI…870 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eugene was located
near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 116.5 West. Eugene is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours as Eugene moves over colder water. Eugene is expected
to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Eugene are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and will spread northward to
portions of southern California by tonight and Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Weather Underground

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0831

000
FZPN03 KNHC 100929
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC MON JUL 10 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUL 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED JUL 12.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE EUGENE NEAR 18.1N 116.5W 976 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 10
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT…80 NM SE QUADRANT…60 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE…135
NM SW QUADRANT AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 109W AND 122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EUGENE NEAR 20.7N 118.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT…70 NM SE QUADRANT…50 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 210 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 30
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 112W AND 130W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SE AND S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EUGENE NEAR 23.3N 120.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO
30N BETWEEN 113W AND 126W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SE AND S TO SW SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EUGENE NEAR 25.5N
122.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EUGENE NEAR 27.5N
124.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EUGENE NEAR 28.5N
125.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 KT GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 21N BETWEEN 125W AND 136W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

.S OF 00N W OF 90W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN S TO SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S E OF 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0830 UTC MON JUL 10…

.HURRICANE EUGENE…SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM
OF CENTER.

.LOW PRES NEAR 13N103W…SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 102W AND 105W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 13N95W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR
12N103W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N120W TO 10N129W TO 10N136W. ITCZ
FROM 10N136W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
03N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 92W.

$$
.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Hurricane Blanca (02E) CAT2 070400Z POSITION nr 19.3N 110.4W, moving NNW 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 070615 0920Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Blanca 02E

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Guasave Radar Loop

Guasave Radar Loop

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083620W5_NL_sm B7

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 070837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.8N 110.8W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI…575 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.8 West. Blanca is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slight increase
in forward speed tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca will approach the southwest coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and move near or along the coast
tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical storm
tonight before it reaches the southwestern coast of the Baja
California peninsula. Blanca is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression Monday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
southern portion of the warning area by late this morning or early
this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions will then spread northward elsewhere
within the warning area tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 10 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
half of the state of Baja California, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches over Baja California Sur. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 02E (Blanca) Warning #26
Issued at 07/0400Z

ep0215 B7

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070000Z — NEAR 18.8N 110.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 110.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 20.4N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 22.4N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 24.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 26.4N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.9N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 110.4W.
HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM EAST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.//
NNNN

END

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2015 9:00 GMT

Hurricane BLANCA (02E) currently located near 19.8 N 110.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 B7

000
FZPN03 KNHC 070256
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN JUN 07 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUN 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUN 09.

.WARNINGS.
…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 19.2N 110.4W 952 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 07
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 130 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT…
390 NM SE QUADRANT…210 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…240 NM
SE QUADRANT…240 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 27N
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 22.4N 111.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
260 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 10
TO 15 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 103W AND
127W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 24.6N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 26.4N 113.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BLANCA NEAR 29.9N
114.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMNANT LOW OF ANDRES NEAR 18N120W 1007 MB DRIFTING SE. WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS MERGE WITH BLANCA.

.S OF 00N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 06N79W TO 10N100W TO 10N120W TO
00N120W…EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07…

.HURRICANE BLANCA…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 109W
AND 112W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
108W AND 114W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN
88W AND 100W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
104W AND 114W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
ITCZ FROM 11N130W TO 10N140W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane ODILE 15E: 131800Z nr 16.6N 106.0W, moving NW at about 4.34 knots (NHC) – Published 130914 2030z (UTC)

Hurricane Odile

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

…ODILE GETTING STRONGER…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 131752
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

…ODILE GETTING STRONGER…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI…810 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…977 MB…28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. ODILE HAS
RECENTLY MOVED LITTLE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…LATER TODAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND PASS NEAR
OR SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES…315 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB…28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SURF…SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Sep, 2014 21:00 GMT

Hurricane ODILE (15E) currently located near 17.0 N 106.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

 Odile becomes a hurricane– Extract

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:34 PM GMT on September 13, 2014
“In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Odile became the 11th hurricane of season Saturday morning, intensifying to a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds at 11 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Odile continues to grow more organized, but the hurricane’s heavy rains are remaining offshore of Mexico. Odile may be undergoing a period of rapid intensification that will take it to at least Category 2 strength; the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model gave Odile a 55% chance of intensifying by 30 mph in 24 hours. While all of the reliable computer models show Odile will track northwest and remain offshore of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, just a slight deviation to the east would bring tropical storm conditions to the coast. The 11 am EDT Saturday NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave Cabo San Lucas on the tip of the Baja Peninsula a 51% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph , and a 6% chance of hurricane-force winds. As Odile passes southern Baja on Monday, the computer models grow more divergent in their forecast for the hurricane’s track, with several reliable models (the European and UKMET) showing landfall over the Central Baja Peninsula. The GFS model keeps the storm out to sea. Regardless of the track, tropical moisture flowing northwards from Odile’s circulation is likely to bring heavy rains to Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. by the middle of the week.” – Dr. Jeff Masters

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1455

WTPZ25 KNHC 131455 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
. LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….100NE 150SE 170SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 131730
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 56N171W 961 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 55N174W TO 56N178W TO 60N179W. BETWEEN 120 AND 300
NM S QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. WITHIN 180 NM
N SEMICIRCLE…240 NM E…540 NM S…AND 420 NM SW QUADRANTS AND
ALSO WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE FRONT…WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12
TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 45N TO 61N BETWEEN 156W AND
175E…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 56N163W 978 MB. BETWEEN
300 NM SW AND 480 NM S QUADRANTS…EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 46N
TO 60N BETWEEN 152W AND 173W…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20
FT…EXCEPT SEAS TO 10 FT N OF THE LOW CENTER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 59N161W 992 MB. FROM
53N TO 58N BETWEEN 151W AND 165W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14
FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FRONT EXTENDS FROM 60N150W TO 57N148W TO 45N150W. WITHIN 240 NM
NE OF THE FRONT S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 61N148W TO 57N144W TO 50N144W.
WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT S OF 57N SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 57N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 59N140W TO 54N139W. WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE FRONT SE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 42N151E 997 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 44N160E
TO 40N160E. WITHIN 180 NM NE AND N OF THE FRONT E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N160E 1002 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N177E 1007 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 33N149W 1009 MB DRIFTING SE. BETWEEN 180 AND 360 NM E
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N147W 1008 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 46N146W TO 39N150W. IN AN AREA
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A LINE FROM 46N148W TO 38N155W N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 36N147W 1007 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NW
QUADRANT N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N179E 1009 MB WITH FRONT SW FROM LOW TO
36N163E. WITHIN 300 NM S QUADRANT AND 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N167W 1013 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 42N170E TO 40N164E TO 36N160E.
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 180 NM E OF
A LINE FROM 52N150W TO 59N151W AND FROM 37N TO 44N W OF 169E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 47N BETWEEN 164E AND
178E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 176W AND
169E.

.HIGH 52N137W 1024 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N135W 1019 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 50N135W 1015 MB.

.HIGH 39N179E 1026 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N173W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N172W 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 16.6N 106.0W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 13
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE…150
NM SE…170 NM SW AND 90 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 270 NM S AND 180 NM N SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 270 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 09N TO
20N BETWEEN 99W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 18.9N 108.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM S SEMICIRCLE…120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 330 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND
360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 08N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 22.1N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE…150 NM SE…130 NM SW AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 360 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO
14 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 100W AND 119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 24.4N 114.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 26.5N 116.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 27.5N 117.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

UPDATED FOR LATEST ADVISORY

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 16.0N 117.2W 1007 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 13 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 113W
AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIXTEEN-E NEAR 15.5N
114.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 270 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIXTEEN-E NEAR 18.4N
110.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 90 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS MERGED WITH AREA DESCRIBED
IN WARNING SECTION.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13…

.HURRICANE ODILE…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE
AND 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO 10N89W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W
1007 MB TO 14N95W..RESUMES FROM T.D. SIXTEEN-E TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N132W 1011 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S
OF TROUGH W OF 131W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 13 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 14 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 15 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 12N144W 1008 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 11N140W TO LOW
TO 09N149W TO 07N166W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 155W AND 160W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
210 NM OF LOW AND TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 12N146W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO
LOW TO 08N154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 11N149W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO
LOW TO 06N162W.

.LOW 15N172W 1008 MB MOVING W 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 08N178E
TO 04N175E MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180
NM OF LOW AND TROUGH W OF 178E…FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 171W
AND 174W…AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 163W AND 171W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 14N179W 1007 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
04N173E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 10N174E TO
17N178E.

.FRONT FROM 30N146W TO 28N151W TO 28N155W TO 29N159W MOVING SE
SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT E OF
155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N144W TO 26N148W TO 25N157W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N142W TO 23N150W TO 23N155W.

.WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N179E TO 28N172E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 29N166W TO 28N169W TO 27N173W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.RIDGE FROM 30N164E TO 28N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.RIDGE FROM 25N140W TO 23N146W TO 24N155W TO 26N167W MOVING S
SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 167W AND 171W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 12N W OF 173E…FROM 14N TO
27N W OF 174E…FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 147W AND 158W…WITHIN
60 NM OF 27N174W…AND ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 166W AND 180W.

$$

.HONOLULU HI.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/mexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane NORBERT 14E: 050600Z nr 22.3N 111.3W, moving NNW at about 6.95 knots (NHC) – Published 050914 0845z (UTC)

Hurricane NORBERT* 14E

…CENTER OF NORBERT PASSING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

(*CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 050547
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

…CENTER OF NORBERT PASSING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.3N 111.3W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM. SEVERAL MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATIONS NEAR CABO SAN
LUCAS HAVE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY.

RAINFALL…NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1414.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
050000Z — NEAR 21.7N 111.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 111.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 22.9N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 23.9N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 24.8N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 25.7N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 27.1N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 28.5N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 01 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 111.3W.
HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM SOUTHWEST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 5 Sep, 2014 3:00 GMT

Hurricane NORBERT (14E) currently located near 22.0 N 111.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for TS is 95% currently
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

Hurricane Norbert Brushing Baja; 90L Emerges From the Coast of Africa – Extract

By: Jeff Masters , 12:42 PM GMT on September 04, 2014/ wunderground.com

“Hurricane Norbert took advantage of unusually warm 29.5C (85F) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and intensified into the Eastern Pacific’s tenth hurricane of the year on Wednesday evening. The Eastern Pacific has seen an unusually active hurricane season, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes so far. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Category 1 Norbert had no eye but some very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops, and Mexican radar showed an outer band of Norbert bringing heavy rains to the tip of the Baja Peninsula and adjacent areas of Mainland Mexico. Norbert should be able to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist atmosphere, and moderate wind shear over the next two days to maintain Category 1 hurricane strength, but the models all show the core of the hurricane remaining just offshore as it moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Norbert is a small storm, and it’s hurricane-force winds are only expected to reach out about 25 miles from the center when it makes its closest pass by the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday morning. Hurricane force winds will likely stay offshore, but Baja can expect tropical storm-force winds from Norbert. In their 2 am PDT Thursday WInd Probability Advisory, NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 63% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 0% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. Heavy rains of 3 – 5″ causing flash flooding will be the primary threat from Norbert to Baja.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Tropical Storm Norbert at approximately 5 pm EDT September 3, 2014. At the time, Norbert had top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

……Jeff Masters” / wunderground.com

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0239

WTPZ24 KNHC 050239
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO
SAN EVARISTO…AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO
PUNTA ABREOJOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0530

FZPN02 KWBC 050530
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 07.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW 42N172E 988 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM NE…480 NM
SE…360 NM SW…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS
8 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N177E 976 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
540 NM NE…840 NM SE…480 NM SW…AND 420 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N180W 978 MB. WITHIN 480 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 600 NM E QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 21 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 35N TO 50N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 51N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 57N158W 1003 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 660 NM E AND 1020
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N152W 1009 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
60N141W TO 54N148W TO 45N149W. WITHIN 240 NM SE AND E OF THE
FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N141W 1007 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N TO 33N W OF 165E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N163E 1007 MB. FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 167E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 46N TO 59N
BETWEEN 137W AND 162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 146W AND
154W AND FROM 42N TO 48N BETWEEN 172W AND 179E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 50N BETWEEN 164W AND
170W.

.HIGH 48N138W 1030 MB DRIFTING NE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N136W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N142W 1022 MB.

.HIGH 53N178W 1016 MB MOVING N 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 41N160W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N155W 1019 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN SEP 07.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 22.0N 111.1W 970 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 05
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE…100
NM SE…90 NM SW AND 80 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE…210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 114W AND FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 23.9N 112.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS
TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM SE
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM
16N TO 28N BETWEEN 105W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 25.7N 115.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE…100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA E OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM
20N TO 29N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 27.1N 117.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NORBERT NEAR 28.5N
118.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NORBERT NEAR 29.0N
118.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 00N124W TO 02N119W TO 03.4S97W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0200 UTC FRI SEP 5…
.HURRICANE NORBERT…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N98W TO 10N105W…CONTINUES FROM
15N113W TO 12N120W TO 12N127W…THEN ITCZ 12N131W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM N AND 60 NM S OF
AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 05 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 06 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 07 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 29N143W 1012 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N146W 1014 MB. WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT
OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED TO A TROUGH FROM 29N147W TO
26N150W.

.LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 29N159W 1007 MB MOVING NE SLOWLY. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF 28N
W OF 162E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 30N161E 1006 MB. FRONT FROM LOW TO
28N160E. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N163E 1007 MB. FRONT
FROM LOW TO 27N160E. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E.

.HIGH 25N170W 1016 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. RIDGES FROM HIGH TO
30N155W AND FROM HIGH TO 24N175E TO 22N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 25N173W 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 27N W OF 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF A LINE FROM 30N170W TO
27N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 28N W OF 178W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 170E.

.ITCZ FROM 09N140W TO 10N152W TO 07N170W TO 06N160E. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER BURKE. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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East Pacific/ Mexico: Hurricane MARIE 13E CAT4: 251600Z near 18.0N 115.0W, moving NW at 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 250814 1637z (UTC)

Hurricane Marie 13E

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND…
…LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

000

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 251433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

…EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND…
…LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.9N 114.8W
ABOUT 255 MI…415 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 470 MI…755 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…932 MB…27.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB…27.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO…THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA…AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TODAY…AND WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS…AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1314.gif

 

 

WTPN33 PHNC 251600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 17.6N 114.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 114.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 18.9N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 20.1N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 21.2N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 22.2N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 24.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 28.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 30.5N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 115.0W.
HURRICANE 13E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND
261600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1433

WTPZ23 KNHC 251433
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT…….100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…….240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 390SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT…240NE 240SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT…210NE 210SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…190NE 190SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 251130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 50N167E 1006 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N AND 420 NM
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N177W 1011 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW AND 360
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N171W 1014 MB. FROM 49N TO 52N BETWEEN
157W AND 176W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA NEAR 46N157E 998 MB. WITHIN 600
NM SE AND E QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N160E 993 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 420 NM NE AND 660 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 60N165W 1000 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM SW AND 540
NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.FROM 37N TO 52N BETWEEN 124W AND 136W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 126W AND 142W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 145W AND 131W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 150W AND 133W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

.LOW 45N157W 1020 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF
LOW…FROM 48N TO 52N BETWEEN 133W AND 141W…AND WITHIN 180 NM
NW OF A LINE FROM 33N174E TO 38N180W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N144W 1017 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N133W 1015 MB. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 47N TO 57N
BETWEEN 134W AND 146W AND FROM 43N TO 51N BETWEEN 163E AND 173E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 52N W OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 161E AND
179E.

.HIGH 42N144W 1029 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 NOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N142W 1024 MB.

.HIGH 44N176E 1030 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N168W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N162W 1029 MB.

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 27.

...HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 17.3N 113.9W 932 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 25
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…270 NM SE QUADRANT AND 240 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT…390 NM SE QUADRANT 300
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 48 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E AND 510 NM S QUADRANTS…AND 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX
OF SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 19.6N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE…220 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 510 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM E AND 540 NM S
QUADRANTS…AND 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 125W…
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W
AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING SW AND
NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 22.0N 121.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE…120 NM SW QUADRANT…150 NM NW.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 360 NM SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF
CENTER… EXCEPT 240 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 130W…INCLUDING THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N…AND FROM 05N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND
125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIE NEAR 24.7N 126.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 27.8N
130.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 30.2N
132.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.2N 128.4W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
25 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT
90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM QUADRANT. SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 90 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N
TO 20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 17.1N 127.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER…ELSEWHERE AND REMAINDER OF AREA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 16.7N
127.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 22N
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 15.6N
124.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT. WITHIN 150 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
07N TO 18N W OF 123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 26N130W 1004 MB…REMNANT OF LOWELL. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N133W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N
W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 28N137W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 18N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC MON AUG 25…

.HURRICANE MARIE…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
200 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 360 NM SE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA….NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 08N103W TO
10N103W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 88W.

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 25 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 26 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 27 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 14N143W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N143W TO 11N149W TO 11N158W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
150W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 07N E OF
160W.

.ITCZ FROM 10N167W TO 08N177W TO 10N172E TO 07N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 01N W OF 160W.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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Mexico: Post Tropical Cyclone (09E) IVO 252200Z 25.7N 115.3W, moving NNW at 07 mph (JTWC) – 250813 2220z

Post Tropical Cyclone IVO (9E)

(Image: wunderground)
Satellite
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground)
5 Day Forecast
(Click image for source)

(Image: smn.cna.gob.mx)

(Image: smn.cna.gob.mx) Guasave Radar (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

WTPZ34 KNHC 252033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

…IVO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW…
…MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 190 MI…310 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH…45
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…THE REMNANTS OF IVO ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES…ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BRINGING A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 014    
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 25.4N 115.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 115.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 26.4N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 26.7N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 26.6N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 26.5N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 115.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 11 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

 

High Seas Forecast (Tropical NE Pacific)

000

FZPN03 KNHC 252102

HSFEP2

 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2230 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013

 

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE

MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

 

SECURITE

 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SUN AUG 25.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON AUG 26.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE AUG 27.

 

.WARNINGS.

 

.NONE.

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

.POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO NEAR 25.7N 115.2W 1003 MB AT 2100

UTC AUG 25 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO

25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 26N TO 28N SE TO

S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST

WATERS WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT

IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO NEAR 26.7N

116.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 150 NM

W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW

SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO NEAR 26.5N

116.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WINDS 20 KT

OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

 

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE

USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE

AND INTENSITY.

 

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N96W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS

20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR

14.5N99W 1007 MB. WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.

SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR

16.5N104W 1005 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30

KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

 

.18 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM

10N97W TO 06N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN S TO SW

SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM

15N100W TO 09N101W TO 08N109W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9

TO 11 FT IN S TO SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A

LINE FROM 15N100W TO 10N96W TO 03N105W TO 11N123W TO 14N122W TO

10N104W TO 15N100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN S TO SW

SWELL.

 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

CONVECTION VALID 2030 UTC SUN AUG 25…

 

.POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO…SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN 120

AND 240 NM N QUADRANT.

 

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N96W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG

N OF 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W.

 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO 10N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N96W TO

10N112W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N125W TO

10N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 270

NM SW OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 89W…WITHIN 120 NM S OF

MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 110W…AND FROM 09N TO 11N W OF

135W.

 

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
METAREA12 / HURRICANE_AD2031VISORY /
WTPZ24 KNHC 252031
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.2W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.2W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT…GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT…GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT…GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT…GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 115.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

News Reports

Ivo leaves flooding in Loreto; 400 people evacuated

The rains caused the flooding of the river San Telmo, 200 houses were flooded

Ivo Rains during the early hours of Sunday caused the flooding of streams and the evacuation of some 400 people in Loreto. Photo: Javier Chavez

By Gladys Navarro @ gladys_rn

25 / August / 2013 – 11:51

La Paz, Baja California Sur (BCS). Around 200 homes inundated and 400 people evacuated is the balance until the now tropical depression that hit Ivo overnight Saturday and early Sunday morning the town of Loreto, north of Baja California Sur.

According to Civil Protection authorities reported state and municipal-run San Telmo stream caused the preventive evacuation of about 400 people in the colonies Obrera, Palmeiras and Zaragoza’s northern municipality of Loreto.

The head of the Civil Protection Unit, Carlos Enriquez Corner reported that rains in the last hours, especially in the mountainous area, caused the flooding of the stream that reached the colonies of the urban area, so it was necessary to their eviction .

“It rained a lot in the Sierra de la Giganta and that made grow streams on the San Telmo dodo, people living in areas of risk and required safekeeping,” he said.

Civil Protection Director Loreto, Francisco Garcia Duarte, said that of the 400 people evacuated, mostly went to shelter with relatives, but two schools were placed to support them.

He said during this morning continue evaluation paths affected areas.” – octavodia.mx

Spanish (Translated by Google) Español (Traducido por Google)

Publique Ciclón Tropical IVO (9E)

(Imagen: Wunderground)
Satélite
(Click en la imagen para la fuente)

(Imagen: Wunderground)
Previsión de 5 días
(Click en la imagen para la fuente)

(Imagen: smn.cna.gob.mx)

(Imagen: smn.cna.gob.mx) Guasave Radar (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

Aviso Ciclón Tropical en el Pacífico

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

(Imagen: NHC) Relojes / advertencias costeras y 5 días Cono de Storm Center (Pulsar la imagen para la fuente)

WTPZ34 TJSJ 252033
TCPEP4

BOLETÍN
DESPUÉS DE CICLON TROPICAL IVO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP092013
200 PM PDT dom 25 de agosto 2013

… IVO CONVIERTE EN UN REMANENTE BAJA …
HUMEDAD … SIGUE EN NOROESTE DE MEXICO corriente
Y el suroeste de Estados Unidos …

RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM PDT … 2100 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN … 25.7N 115.2W
ACERCA DE MI 190 … 310 KM ONO DE CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ACERCA DE MI 145 … 235 KM S DE PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 30 MPH … 45 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NNW O 340 GRADOS A 8 MPH … 13 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 200 PM PDT … 2100 UTC … EL CENTRO DE POST-CICLON TROPICAL IVO
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.7 NORTE … LONGITUD 115.2 OESTE. LA
CICLON TROPICAL POST-SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8
MPH … 13 KM / H…AND ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE HASTA
ESTA NOCHE. LA BAJA RESTO SE ESPERA QUE REDUZCA LA VELOCIDAD ESTA NOCHE
Y LUEGO SER CASI ESTACIONARIO EN LUNES.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 30 MPH … 45
KM / H…WITH RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL SE ESPERA DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
LLUVIA … LOS REMANENTES DE IVO SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA TOTALES
ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS … CON POSIBLES AISLADO
CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 5 PULGADAS … TODO EL CENTRO Y NORTE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE BAJA CALIFORNIA. HUMEDAD DE ESTE
Sistema también difusión en el suroeste de los Estados Unidos durante
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS … TRAER UNA AMENAZA DE FUERTES LLUVIAS Y FLASH
INUNDACIONES.

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA EMITIDA POR EL HURACÁN NACIONAL
CENTRO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA MAYOR INFORMACION SOBRE EL REMANENTE
FAVOR DE BAJA VER PRONOSTICOS DE OLEAJE ALTO EMITIDOS POR EL NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
SERVICIO … BAJO AWIPS ENCABEZADO NFDHSFEPI Y WMO ENCABEZADO FZPN01 KWBC.

$ $
PREDICCIÓN DE BROWN
Warning Center del tifón común (JTWC)

(Imagen: JTWC) TC pista (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

Google Earth Gráfico Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / CICLÓN TROPICAL ADVERTENCIA / /
OBS /
1. DEPRESION TROPICAL 09E (IVO) ADVERTENCIA NR 014
01 ACTIVE CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC
Vientos máximos sostenidos basado en el promedio de un minuto
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

ADVERTENCIA POSICIÓN:
251800Z — CERCA 25.4N 115.1W
MOVIMIENTO ÚLTIMOS SEIS HORAS – 345 GRADOS A 07 KTS
POSICIÓN una precisión de 020 NM
Posición basada en el centro situado POR SATÉLITE
DISTRIBUCION ACTUAL DEL VIENTO:
Vientos máximos sostenidos – 025 KT, ráfagas de 035 KT
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPAR COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL RELEVANTE SOBRE EL AGUA
REPETIR POSIT: 25.4N 115.1W

Previsiones:
12 HRS, válido en:
260600Z — 26.4N 115.7W
Vientos máximos sostenidos – 025 KT, ráfagas de 035 KT
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPAR COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL RELEVANTE SOBRE EL AGUA
VECTOR DE 24 POSIT HR: 310 DEG / 02 KTS

24 HRS, válido en:
261800Z — 26.7N 116.1W
Vientos máximos sostenidos – 020 KT, ráfagas de 030 KT
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPADO COMO CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE EL AGUA
VECTOR DE 36 HR POSIT: 240 º / 01 KTS

36 HRS, válido en:
270600Z — 26.6N 116.3W
Vientos máximos sostenidos – 020 KT, ráfagas de 030 KT
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPADO COMO CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE EL AGUA
VECTOR DE 48 POSIT HR: 240 º / 01 KTS

Perspectiva extendida:
48 HRS, válido en:
271800Z — 26.5N 116.5W
Vientos máximos sostenidos – 020 KT, ráfagas de 030 KT
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPADO COMO CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE EL AGUA

OBSERVACIONES:
POSICIÓN 252200Z CERCA 25.7N 115.3W.
DEPRESION TROPICAL 09E (IVO), situado a unos 450 NM
SUR-sudeste DE SAN DIEGO, ha rastreado NORTE-NOROESTE
A 07 NUDOS EN LOS ÚLTIMOS SEIS HORAS. ÉSTE ES EL FINAL DE ADVERTENCIA
ESTE SISTEMA DEL CONJUNTO TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. EL SISTEMA
Estará estrechamente monitorizados para detectar signos de regeneración. MÁXIMO
Altura de las olas AT 251800Z ES 11 PIES.
/ /
NNNN
MARÍTIMO

High Seas Pronóstico (Tropical NE del Pacífico)

000

FZPN03 TJSJ 252102

HSFEP2

ALTA MAR PRONOSTICO

NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL

2230 UTC dom 25 de agosto 2013

SUSTITUIDO POR EXPEDICIÓN AL LADO DE 6 HORAS

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio

ALTURA DE LA MÁS ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuales pueden ser

Más del doble de altura de ola significativa.

Sécurité

E PACIFICO DEL ECUADOR PARA 30N E DE 140W.

SINOPSIS VÁLIDO 1800 UTC dom 25 de agosto.

24 HOUR 1800 UTC Pronóstico válido lun 26 de agosto.

48 HOUR 1800 UTC Pronóstico válido mar 27 de agosto.

. ADVERTENCIAS.

. NINGUNO.

. SINOPSIS Y PRONÓSTICO.

. POST-TROPICAL REMANENTE BAJA CERCA DE IVO 25.7N 115.2W 1003 MB AT 2100

UTC 25 de agosto MUEVE NNW O 340 GRADOS A 7 KT. MÁXIMO SOSTENIDO

VIENTOS RAFAGAS 25 KT 35 KT. DENTRO DE 150 NM E semicírculo VIENTOS DE 20 A

25 KT. OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT. GOLFO DE CALIFORNIA DE 26N A 28N SE A

S VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT. OLEAJE A 8 FT. EN OTRA PARTE SOBRE PREVISIONES

AGUAS EN 240 NM CENTRO DE VIENTO 20 KT o menos. SEAS A 9 FT

EN UNA MEZCLA DE AMPLIO hincharse.

0.24 hora Pronóstico POST-TROPICAL IVO REMANENTE BAJA CERCA 26.7N

116.1W. Vientos sostenidos máximos de 20 RAFAGAS DE 30 KT KT. DENTRO DE 150 NM

W SEMICÍRCULO VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior. SEAS 8 pies de MIXTO SE Y NO

Hincharse.

0.48 hora Pronóstico POST-TROPICAL IVO REMANENTE BAJA CERCA 26.5N

116.5W. Vientos sostenidos máximos de 20 RAFAGAS DE 30 KT KT. VIENTOS 20 KT

O MENOS. SEAS menos de 8 FT.

0.72 hora Pronóstico … disipado.

VIENTOS DE PREDICCIÓN EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe

Usar con precaución debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAÑO

E INTENSIDAD.

PRES. BAJA CERCA 14N96W 1008 MB. DENTRO DE 120 NM cuadrante NE VIENTOS

20 A 25 KT. SEAS A 9 FT.

0.24 hora Pronóstico PRES BAJO … CICLÓN TROPICAL CERCA POSIBLE …

14.5N99W 1007 MB. DENTRO DE 150 NM NE semicírculo VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT.

OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES.

0.48 hora Pronóstico PRES BAJO … CICLÓN TROPICAL CERCA POSIBLE …

16.5N104W 1005 MB. DENTRO DE 180 NM NE semicírculo VIENTOS DE 20 A 30

KT. OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT.

0.18 hora Pronóstico para el plazo de 180 NM a cada lado de una línea del

10N97W A 06N106W VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior. Mar a 9 pies de S a SW

Hincharse.

0.24 hora Pronóstico POCO CAMBIO.

0.48 hora Pronóstico para el plazo de 120 NM a cada lado de una línea del

15N100W A 09N101W A 08N109W S a SW VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT. SEAS 9

A 11 pies de S a SW hincharse. Otro punto de un área limitada por una

LÍNEA DE 15N100W A 10N96W A 03N105W A 11N123W A 14N122W A

10N104W A 15N100W VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior. Mar a 9 pies de S a SW

Hincharse.

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior. SEAS menos de 8 FT.

CONVECCIÓN VÁLIDO 2030 UTC dom 25 de agosto …

. POST-TROPICAL REMANENTE BAJA IVO … DISPERSARAN moderada entre 120

Y 240 NM N cuadrante.

PRES. BAJA CERCA 14N96W … DISPERSOS.LUEGO MODERADA FUERTE AISLADO

N DE 08N ENTRE 92W Y 100W.

. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCIA ZONE / vaguada monzónica …

MONZÓN DEL CANAL DE 09N79W A 10N86W A PRESIÓN BAJA CERCA A 14N96W

10N112W RESUME LUEGO DE 14N120W DE BAJA PRESIÓN DE CERCA 15N125W

10N140W. NO AXIS ITCZ ​​está presente. DISPERSADAS MODERADO EN 270

NM SW DE MONZÓN DEL CANAL ENTRE 80W Y 89W … DENTRO DE 120 NM S DE

MONZÓN canal entre 100 W y 110 W … Y DE 09N A 11N W DE

135W.

$ $

. PRONOSTICADOR LEWITSKY. CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES.

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_AD2031VISORY /
WTPZ24 TJSJ 252031
TCMEP4

DESPUÉS DE CICLON TROPICAL IVO PRONÓSTICO / ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP092013
2100 UTC dom 25 de agosto 2013

NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

CENTRO DE CICLON TROPICAL POST-LOCALIZADO CERCA 25.7N 115.2W AT 25/2100Z
POSICIÓN CORRECTA EN 20 NM

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE O 340 GRADOS A 7 KT

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA 1.003 MB
Vientos máximos sostenidos de 25 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 35 KT.
VIENTO Y OLEAJE varían mucho en cada cuadrante. RADIOS EN NÁUTICA
MILES SON LOS RADIOS DE ESPERA MÁS GRANDE EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN QUE cuadrante.

REPEAT … CENTRO UBICADO CERCA 25.7N 115.2W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA 25.4N 115.1W

Pronóstico válido 26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 25 KT … RAFAGAS DE 35 KT.

Pronóstico válido 26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS DE 30 KT.

Pronóstico válido 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS DE 30 KT.

Pronóstico válido 27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS DE 30 KT.

Pronóstico válido 28/1800Z…DISSIPATED

SOLICITUD DE 3 INFORMES DEL BUQUE POR HORA EN 300 MILLAS DE 25.7N 115.2W

Esta es la última Predicciones / advertencias EMITIDA POR EL HURACÁN NACIONAL
CENTRO DE ESTE SISTEMA. INFORMACIÓN ADICIONAL SOBRE EL REMANENTE BAJA
Se puede encontrar en PRONOSTICOS DE OLEAJE ALTO EMITIDOS POR EL NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
SERVICIO … BAJO AWIPS ENCABEZADO NFDHSFEPI Y WMO ENCABEZADO FZPN01 KWBC.

$ $
PREDICCIÓN DE BROWN
Los informes de prensa
Ivo deja inundaciones en Loreto, 400 personas evacuadas

Las lluvias causaron el desbordamiento del río San Telmo, se inundaron 200 casas
Las lluvias Ivo durante las primeras horas del domingo provocaron la inundación de los arroyos y la evacuación de unas 400 personas en Loreto. Foto: Javier Chávez

Por Gladys Navarro @ gladys_rn

25 / agosto / 2013 – once y cincuenta y un

“La Paz, Baja California Sur (BCS). Alrededor de 200 casas inundadas y 400 personas evacuadas es el balance hasta que la depresión tropical que azotó hoy Ivo noche a la mañana el sábado y el domingo por la mañana la ciudad de Loreto, al norte de Baja California Sur.

De acuerdo con autoridades de Protección Civil informó arroyo San Telmo estatales y municipales de gestión provocó la evacuación preventiva de unas 400 personas en las colonias Obrera, Palmeiras y el norteño municipio de Zaragoza de Loreto.

El jefe de la Unidad de Protección Civil, Carlos Enríquez Rincón informó que las lluvias de las últimas horas, especialmente en la zona montañosa, causaron el desbordamiento del río que llegó a las colonias de la zona urbana, por lo que era necesario para su desalojo.

“Llovió mucho en la Sierra de la Giganta y que hizo crecer los arroyos en el San Telmo dodo, las personas que viven en zonas de riesgo y custodia requerida”, dijo.

El director de Protección Civil de Loreto, Francisco García Duarte, señaló que de las 400 personas evacuadas, la mayoría se fueron a un refugio con familiares, pero dos escuelas fueron colocados para apoyarlos.

Dijo que durante esta mañana siguen caminos evaluación de las zonas afectadas “-. Octavodia.mx