Mexico: Tropical Storm Franklin – ⚠️ Hurricane Warning for MX coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL) – Published 09 Aug 2017 1040z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco (NHC FL)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen (NHC FL)
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo (NHC FL)

Traducción al español (haga clic aquí)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

…FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN is currently located near 20.4 N 92.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). FRANKLIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Coatzacoalcos (18.2 N, 94.4 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

Landfall #2 Coming Up: Franklin Enters Bay of Campeche (Category 6 website)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0837

WTNT22 KNHC 090837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF RIO PANUCO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO BARRA DEL TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm Dora (04E) 25/1500Z nr 15.0N 101.8W, moving WNW 10 kt (NHC FL) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1608z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Dora 04E

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 251432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

…DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI…295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI…520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.8 West. Dora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel
to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Dora could become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan
through Monday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04E (Dora) Warning #02
Issued at 25/1000Z

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 14.5N 100.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 100.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 15.5N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 16.4N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 17.5N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 18.4N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 19.5N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 20.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 101.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1422 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND
261000Z.//
NNNN

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 251554
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 27.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 15.0N 101.8W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN
25 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 16.8N 105.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT…40 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 18.6N 108.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER…WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 19.6N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 20.3N 115.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DORA NEAR 20.0N
118.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 24N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S E OF 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUN 25…

.TROPICAL STORM DORA…NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF DORA. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W
AND 105W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 81W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N84W TO 12N94W, IT THEN RESUMES AT 10N107W
TO 07N131W. ITCZ FROM 07N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 126W AND 129W.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Vanuatu: Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P) 091200Z position near 21.4S 168.4E , moving SE 11 kt (RSMC Nadi) – Updated 09 May 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P)

Currently impacting New Caledonia

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET.(JTWC)

Scroll down for HURRICANE WARNING for shipping

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 57 issued 1319 UTC Tuesday 9 May 2017

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm May 9 3 21.4S 168.4E 165
+6hr 6 pm May 9 3 22.1S 168.7E 195
+12hr 12 am May 10 2 22.9S 169.1E 220
+18hr 6 am May 10 2 23.7S 169.5E 250
+24hr 12 pm May 10 2 24.8S 170.3E 280
+36hr 12 am May 11 2 27.4S 172.2E 340
+48hr 12 pm May 11 2 31.0S 175.1E 400
+60hr 12 am May 12 2 34.6S 178.9E 485
+72hr 12 pm May 12 2 37.5S 177.0W 570

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 091350 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 168.4E AT
091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING,
T4.5/4.5/W2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 10000 UTC 22.9S 169.1E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 24.8S 170.3E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 27.4S 172.2E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 31.0S 175.1E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DONNA is currently located near 20.1 S 167.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DONNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DONNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Noum’ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) Warning #23
Issued at 09/0900z

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 20.1S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 167.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 21.6S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.2S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 25.4S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 28.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 090432Z 91 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS INTRODUCING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THUS IMPEDING THE
POLEWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC DONNA IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO
COOLER WATERS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
REGION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC DONNA WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane wind damage

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/animations/images/hurricane_winddamage.swf

Map of Vanuatu with its capital Port Vila, located on its third largest island. (From Wikipedia)

FBC logo

Cyclone Donna intensifies to Category 4

18:41 6 May 2017 (Local Time)

Taken from/By: FBC News
Report by: Akosita Talei

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna has now intensified to a category four system with central pressure of 965 heta pascal destructive hurricane force winds estimated at about 90 knots close to the centre.

TC Donna was located 700km northwest of Port Vila or 1560km west-northwest of Nadi at mid-day today.

Fiji Meteorology Director Ravindra Kumar says it’s moving west-southwest at about 13km/hr and gradually turning southwards and expected to track towards New Caledonia and Southern Vanuatu.

He adds that although TC Donna still lies in favourable environment for further intensification, it’s expected to encounter unfavourable environmental conditions as it turns and tracks in a southerly direction.

He says Fiji is not directly threatened by TC Donna, however associated strong winds will affect Fiji waters and a strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters.

Expect rough seas with east to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, gusting to 30 knots.

Strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters and Occasional showers expected. Isolated heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 091308 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4 SOUTH
168.4 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 168.4E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.9S 169.1E AT 10000 UTC
AND NEAR 24.8S 168.5E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 053.

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: #2E #BARBARA weakens to Tropical Depression, heavy rains continue (NHC) 300513 1300z

(Image: wunderground.com/) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

(Image: Brian McNoldy, RSMAS/Univ of Miami) Puerto Angel Radar Loop (Click image for source)

(Image: smn.cna.gob.mx) Altamira radar animation

NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepageNational Weather Service

US National Hurricane Center

Tropical Depression BARBARA

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

(Desplácese hacia abajo para el español)

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 300834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

…BARBARA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.8N 93.9W
ABOUT 40 MI…60 KM SE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM W OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA
WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.8
NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE…OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ARRIAGA IN THE
STATE OF CHIAPAS RECENTLY REPORTED A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 16.02
INCHES…407 MM…IN THE LAST 18 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) Tropical Storm 02E (Barbara) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300600Z — NEAR 17.6N 93.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 93.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 18.7N 94.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 93.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM
NORTHEASTWARD OF TEHUANTEPEC, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. FLEET WEATHER CENTER NORFOLK
WILL CONTINUE TO WARN ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BARBARA).
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z.
//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Barbara

(wunderground.com)
21 GMT 05/28/13 14.2N 96.5W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 05/29/13 14.5N 95.7W 45 1001 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 05/29/13 14.8N 95.6W 60 997 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/29/13 15.2N 95.0W 65 995 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 05/29/13 15.7N 94.6W 65 995 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 05/29/13 16.2N 94.0W 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 05/30/13 17.1N 93.8W 50 995 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 05/30/13 17.8N 93.9W 35 1000 Tropical Depression

Spanish:

EE.UU. Centro Nacional de Huracanes
Depresin Tropical BARBARA

(Imagen: NHC) Relojes / advertencias costeras y 5 das Cono de Storm Center (Pulsar la imagen para la fuente)

(Desplà CESE HACIA abajo prrafo el espa ol)

000
WTPZ32 TJSJ 300834
TCPEP2

BOLETN
DEPRESION TROPICAL BARBARA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT jue 30 de mayo 2013

… BARBARA DEBILITA A UNA DEPRESIN COMO LLUVIAS FUERTES CONTINUAN …

RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … INFORMACIN
———————————————-
UBICACIN … 17.8N 93.9W
ACERCA DE MI 40 … 60 KM SE DE COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ACERCA DE MI 70 … 115 KM W DE VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 35 MPH … 55 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … N O 360 GRADOS A 8 MPH … 13 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1000 MB … 29.53 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TODA LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS.

RESUMEN DE LOS RELOJES Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE LOS
ESTADOS UNIDOS … FAVOR DE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL BARBARA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE EL SURESTE DE MEXICO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.8
NORTE … LONGITUD 93.9 OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL
NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH … 13 KM / H…AND ESTE MOVIMIENTO SE ESPERA
CONTINUE HOY CON UNA LEVE DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE AVANCE. EN EL
TRAYECTORIA … EL CENTRO DE BARBARA SE ESPERA QUE EMERGE OVER
EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO TARDE HOY.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 35 MPH … 55 KM / H. ..
CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. BARBARA SE espera que se debilite A UN REMANENTE BAJA
MAS TARDE HOY.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB … 29.53 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
LLUVIA … BARBARA SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS … CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 20 PULGADAS
POSIBLES SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SURESTE … MEXICO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN
Vida en peligro inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de lodo. ARRIAGA EN LA
ESTADO DE CHIAPAS RECIENTEMENTE REPORTADO A TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 16.02
PULGADAS … 407 MM … EN LAS LTIMAS 18 HORAS.

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 800 AM PDT.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR CRESTA
Warning Center del tifn comn (JTWC)

(Imagen: JTWC) Tormenta tropical 02E (Barbara) TC Advertencia Grfico (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

Google Earth Grfico Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 301000
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / CICLN TROPICAL ADVERTENCIA / /
OBS /
1. DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E (BARBARA) ADVERTENCIA NR 008
Rebajado de 02E TORMENTA TROPICAL
01 ACTIVE CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC
Vientos mximos sostenidos basado en el promedio de un minuto
Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

ADVERTENCIA POSICIN:
300600Z — CERCA 17.6N 93.9W
MOVIMIENTO ltimos seis HORAS – 360 GRADOS A 09 KTS
POSICIN una precisin de 060 NM
Posicin basada en el centro situado POR SATLITE
DISTRIBUCION ACTUAL DEL VIENTO:
MAX VIENTOS – 030 KT, KT 040 RAFAGAS
Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
REPETIR POSIT: 17.6N 93.9W

Previsiones:
12 HRS, vlido en:
301800Z — 18.7N 94.0W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 025 KT, rfagas de 035 KT
Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

OBSERVACIONES:
POSICIN 301000Z CERCA 18.0N 93.9W.
DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E (BARBARA), situado a unos 104 NM
NORESTE DE TEHUANTEPEC, MEXICO, ha rastreado el norte a 09
NUDOS EN LOS LTIMOS SEIS HORAS. Esta es la advertencia final sobre este
SISTEMA DE CONJUNTO TYPHOON CENTRO DE ALERTA. FLOTA DE TIEMPO CENTRO NORFOLK
CONTINUARA ADVERTIR SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E (BARBARA).
ADVERTENCIAS siguiente en 301600Z.
/ /
NNNN
Informacin de seguimiento para la tormenta tropical Barbara

(Wunderground.com)
21 GMT 05/28/13 14.2N 96.5W 35 1005 Depresin Tropical
03 GMT 29/05/13 14.5N 95.7W 45 1001 Tormenta Tropical
09 GMT 29/05/13 14.8N 95.6W 60 997 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 29/05/13 15.2N 95.0W 65 995 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 29/05/13 15.7N 94.6W 65 995 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 29/05/13 16,2 N 94.0W 75 990 Huracn Categora 1
03 GMT 30/05/13 17.1N 93.8W 50 995 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 30/05/13 17.8N 93.9W 35 1000 Depresin Tropical

Tropical Cyclone 10p #GARRY (CAT1) (SS-TS) 270900Z nr 24.0S 157.7W, moving SSE at 08 Kts (JTWC) – 270113 1315z

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
270600Z — NEAR 23.5S 158.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 158.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 25.5S 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 157.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT IS BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITH STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE SYSTEM AND SHALLOWING CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF AN
EXPOSED AND ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS
READILY APPERANT IN A 270450Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
LATEST AMSU TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTION SHOWS A BUILDING WARM CORE
ANAMOLY AT THE SURFACE WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A FORMATIVE WARM
FRONT. BASED ON THIS DATA, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE ETT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BECOMING A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 17 FEET.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Garry

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type

————————————————————-
12 GMT 01/20/13 12.8S 176.8W 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/20/13 12.6S 175.7W 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 01/21/13 11.5S 174.3W 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/21/13 11.4S 172.3W 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/21/13 11.9S 170.8W 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/22/13 13.2S 169.8W 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/22/13 13.1S 169.2W 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/23/13 13.8S 168.2W 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/23/13 13.4S 167.2W 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/24/13 14S 164.9W 70 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/24/13 14.9S 163.1W 85 Category 1
06 GMT 01/25/13 16.2S 160.7W 100 Category 2
18 GMT 01/25/13 16.7S 160.3W 75 Category 1
06 GMT 01/26/13 18.7S 159.7W 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/26/13 21S 159W 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/27/13 23.5S 158.2W 40 Tropical Storm

=======================================

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone GARRY

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 89 issued 0731 UTC Sunday 27 January 2013

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:Tropical Cyclone GARRY

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 am January 27 1 23.2S 158.0W 65
+6hr 12 pm January 27 1 24.0S 157.2W 95
+12hr 6 pm January 27 1 25.2S 156.0W 120
+18hr 12 am January 28 tropical low 26.3S 154.8W 150
+24hr 6 am January 28 tropical low 27.8S 152.7W 175
+36hr 6 pm January 28 tropical low 31.2S 147.7W 235
+48hr 6 am January 29 tropical low 35.3S 141.5W 295
+60hr 6 pm January 29 tropical low 39.3S 134.3W 385
+72hr 6 am January 30 tropical low 43.1S 126.4W 470

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

GALE WARNING 089 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 27/0708 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2
SOUTH 158.0 WEST AT 270600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 23.2S 158.0W AT 270600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.2S 156.0W AT 271800 UTC
AND NEAR 27.8S 152.7W AT 280600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC WELLINGTON AS WELL.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 088.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-NINE for Southern Cooks ON
EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 27/1011 UTC 2013 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA IS
NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN COOKS.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5
DEGREES SOUTH 158.4 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 270900UTC. EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS FURTHER AWAY FROM SOUTHERN COOKS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE ABOUT 30 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.

ON THIS TRACK, EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
CAUSE GALES OVER MANGAIA.

FOR MANGAIA:
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS,
GRADUALLY ABATING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS. MODERATE
SWELLS.

THIS IS THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS AND
THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 271530 UTC.

Isaac: Forecasters project the Pearl River to crest Monday at 19.5 feet, more than five feet above flood stage – Updated 02 Sept 2012 1447Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Five Day Track
(Click image for source)

(Image: NOAA)
HPC QPF for Tropical Depression Isaac
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Current Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Watches, warnings, and advisories in effect across much of the southern United States.
(Click on the map for details. Click reload or refresh to update the map)

(Image: weather.gov)
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Long Range Radar
(Click image for source)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=dgx&product=N0R&loop=no

(Image: NWS)
NWS Jackson, MS Radar
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS)
NWS Shreveport, LA Radar
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS)
Short Range New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS)
NWS Little Rock, AR Radar
(Click for source)

(Image: NWS New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA)
Isaac Impacts

Enhanced Radar Mosaic Loop SE Sector

NHC Experimental Videocast Service

(Scroll down for video from Andros Island, Bahamas

wwltv.com

Posted on September 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Updated 01 Sept 2012 2103Z

(Image: wwltv.com)

Update 02 Sept 2012 1442Z:

Forecasters project the Pearl River to crest Monday at 19.5 feet, more than five feet above flood stage. That will result in “major flooding” of at least two subdivisions near the banks and threaten areas in the southeastern corner of the parish, according to the National Weather Service.

See: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/02/us/severe-weather/index.html

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

LAC103-022000-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120902T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. TAMMANY LA-
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
EAST-CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH...

ST TAMMANY PARISH OFFICIALS HAVE DOWNGRADED THE MANDATORY EVACUATION
TO A VOLUNTARY EVACUTATION FOR RESIDENTS BETWEEN LOCK AND DAM NUMBER
2 AND LOCK AND DAM NUMBER ONE ON THE PEARL RIVER DIVERSION CANAL
ABOVE HICKORY.

THERE STILL REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BUT THE WATER LEVELS
WITHIN THE LOCKS HAVE BEEN LOWERED. INTERESTS IN THE AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM
PARISH OFFICIALS. ENGINEERS CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ASSESS THE
INTEGRITY OF THE STRUCTURE.

LAT...LON 3059 8981 3057 8981 3051 8976 3042 8974
      3042 8978 3047 8981 3051 8982 3054 8987
      3059 8987

$$

24/RR

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
914 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON AFFECTING ST.
TAMMANY PARISH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-032014-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-120904T1330Z/
/CUSL1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120831T2300Z.120904T0730Z.NO/
914 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE STAGE BY
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...TCHEFUNCTE CAMP GROUNDS WILL BE UNDER A FEW
  INCHES OF WATER. THE GOODBEE COMMUMUNITY IS THREATENED WITH
  FLOODING. WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE`S PARKING LOT. VEHICLES
  MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE`S PARKING
  LOT. VEHICLES MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...THE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE SOFTBALL FIELD WILL BE
  UNDER WATER. THE CAMP PARKING LOT IS THREATENED WITH FLOODING AND
  VEHICLES ARE ADVISED TO BE MOVED IF HIGHER RIVER STAGES ARE
  ANTICIPATED.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER AT FRANKLINTON AFFECTING WASHINGTON PARISH

THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER NEAR BUSH AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY PARISH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-032136-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-120907T0900Z/
/BSHL1.3.ER.120831T0040Z.120902T1045Z.120907T0300Z.NR/
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER NEAR BUSH.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.7 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...HOMES NEAR THE RIVER ALONG LOUISIANA HIGHWAY
  21 WILL BE MODERATELY FLOODED. THE ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE
  BRIDGE WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ON THE DOWNSTREAM
  SIDE OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY  21 NEAR THE BRIDGE WILL FLOOD. THE
  ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE WILL
  FLOOD. THE RIVER WILL LEAVE THE MAIN CHANNEL ON THE LEFT BANK BELOW
  THE BRIDGE FLOODING WOODLANDS ON EITHER SIDE OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY
  21
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...GRAVEL PITS UPSTREAM OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 21
  WILL BEGIN TO OVERFLOW THREATENING PROPERTY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
  EITHER SIDE OF HIGHWAY 21 IN THE VICINITY OF THE BRIDGE.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-117-MSC045-109-032129-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BXAL1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120902T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREST AND REMAIN AT OR
  NEAR 21.0 FEET FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER
  IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS.
  AT 21 FEET PROPERTY EAST OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 21 ALONG BOGALUSA
  CREEK WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 18.5 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...WOODLANDS ALONG THE RIVER AND WILDLIFE
  MANAGEMENT PROPERTY WILL BE FLOODED.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-MSC045-109-032129-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PERL1.3.ER.120831T0030Z.120904T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.7 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING UNTIL SLOWLY
  CRESTING AT AROUND 19.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER IS
  EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...THERE WILL BE MAJOR FLOODING OF RIVER
  GARDENS AND MODERATE FLOODING OF LOWER PORTIONS IN MAGNOLIA FOREST
  SUBDIVISIONS. SUBDIVISIONS SOUTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF MILITARY ROAD
  WILL BE THREATENED WITH FLOODING. THE INDIAN VILLAGE ROAD ACCESS TO
  RIVER OAKS SUBDIVISION WILL BE UNDER WATER AT SEVERAL PLACES
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...RIVER GARDENS SUBDIVISION WILL BE MODERATELY
  FLOODED WITH SEVERAL STREETS IMPASSABLE AND A FEW HOMES FLOODED IN
  THE VICINITY OF GUM BAYOU. A FEW HOMES WILL ALSO BE THREATENED IN
  MAGNOLIA FOREST. SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND THROUGHOUT HONEY
  ISLAND SWAMP WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WATER ON LOW LYING PROPERTY AND OVER THE
  LOWER PORTIONS OF STREETS IN RIVER GARDENS SUBDIVISION WILL SLOWLY
  BEGIN TO DRAIN
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...LOWER PORTIONS OF STREETS IN RIVER GARDENS
  SUBDIVISION WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD. SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND
  THROUGHOUT HONEY ISLAND SWAMP WILL REMAIN INUNDATED. PROPERTY IN
  THE VICINITY OF THE GAGE IS FLOODED THREATENING ABOUT 20 HOMES
  ALONG THE LEFT BANK.  THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
  WILL BE CLOSED TO HUNTING AT THE 15.5 FOOT STAGE
* IMPACT...AT 15.5 FEET...SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND THROUGHOUT
  HONEY ISLAND SWAMP ARE INUNDATED. PROPERTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
  GAGE IS FLOODED THREATENING ABOUT 20 HOMES ALONG THE LEFT BANK.
  THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE WILL BE CLOSED TO HUNTING
  AT THE 15.5 FOOT STAGE.

Update 02 Sept 2012 2010Z:

ST TAMMANY PARISH, LA (WLOX) – Officials in St. Tammany Parish in Louisiana say the danger of a lock failing on a Pearl River Canal has eased.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers worked overnight to stabilize the lock.

A mandatory evacuation is no longer in effect, for those Louisiana residents. However, officials are maintaining a voluntary evacuation status for people in hundreds of homes near Lock Number 2 on the canal.

Any potential danger from Lock Number 2 failing would not effect Mississippi, according to the National Weather Service.

wwltv.com:

Posted on September 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Updated today at 10:36 AM

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Army Corps of Engineers is at the site on Lock 2. They were able to relieve the pressure by lowering the level of the water upstream to the to the lowest level possible. They are conducting tests to determine the structural integrity now. The evacuation is now voluntary.


Eyes in St. Tammany Parish are still honed in on the Pearl River.

A mandatory evacuation has been in place for most of the day along the Pearl River Diversion Canal because of an unstable lock holding back the river’s swollen waters due to Hurricane Isaac.

It was estimated that if water got around the lock, that it could reach a height of 11 feet.

A valve was opened to help relieve pressure and water was starting to get lower, but the Army Corps planned to stay on site and monitor the situation. The mandatory evacuation remained in place as of 10 p.m.

wspa.com UPDATE: August 31, 12:43 a.m.

Isaac Weakens To Tropical Depression

Isaac is now a Tropical depression centered near southern Arkansas. Winds continue to upwards to 30 miles-per hour. It is expected to move northward through the Mississippi River Valley before moving into the Ohio River Valley by Saturday night.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for all of central and southern Mississippi, as well as portions of southeast Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and has maximum sustained winds at 50 miles-per hour. It is moving west at 18 miles-per hour. It is projected to move west toward Puerto Rico by Sunday.

Hurricane Kirk remains well out in the Atlantic and is not a threat to land. As of 11 p.m., wind gusts were 100 miles per-hour and moving north northwest at 12 miles-per hour.

UPDATE: August 30th 2012, 4:40 p.m.

Issac has now been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.

—————————————————————————————————————–

WTNT34 KNHC 301740
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  38A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
100 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

…SLOW-MOVING ISAAC DRENCHING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WITH HEAVY RAINFALL…
…SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.2N 92.3W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SW OF MONROE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…
INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
LOUISIANA TODAY…OVER ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY…AND OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H… WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND…AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES…315
KM…MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER AND ALSO
ALONG THE COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
EVEN THOUGH ISAAC IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE…LIFE-THREATENING
HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE…INLAND FLOODING…AND TORNADOES ARE
STILL OCCURRING.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…4 TO 8 FT
* ALABAMA…2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA…1 TO 3 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.  NEAR THE
COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAGES…AT
NEW CANAL STATION LOUISIANA…A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 6 FEET IS
PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND A
STORM SURGE VALUE OF NEAR 5 FEET CONTINUES AT WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL…ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 7 TO 14 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE…OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA….MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA…ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
LOWLAND FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE SPREADING
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS.

TORNADOES…TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TODAY.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Spanish:

WTNT34 TJSJ 301740
TCPAT4

BOLETÍN
TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 38A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092012
100 PM CDT jue 30 de agosto 2012

… De lento movimiento ISAAC empapando SURESTE DE LOUISIANA Y
MISSISSIPPI CON LLUVIA FUERTE …
MAREJADA SIGNIFICATIVO … CONTINÚA …

RESUMEN DE LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN … 32.2N 92.3W
ACERCA DE MI 25 … 45 KM SW DE MONROE LOUISIANA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 40 MPH … 65 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NNW O 330 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 992 MB … 29.29 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

NINGUNO.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA …
Incluyendo el lago Pontchartrain y MAUREPAS LAGO

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR MONITOREAR
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
OFICINA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Isaac
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.2 NORTE … LONGITUD 92.3 OESTE. Isaac es
MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA POR LA TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. EN EL
PREVISIÓN TRAYECTORIA … EL CENTRO DE ISAAC CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE
LOUISIANA HOY … OVER ARKANSAS EL VIERNES … Y SOBRE EL SUR
MISSOURI VIERNES POR LA NOCHE.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH … 65 KM / H. .. CON MAYOR
RAFAGAS. DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS COMO LA TORMENTA
Continúa moviéndose SOBRE TIERRA … Y SE ESPERA QUE ISAAC HAZTE
DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL ESTA TARDE O NOCHE.

Tormenta tropical vientos con fuerza EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 195 MILLAS … 315
KM … MAYORMENTE AL SURESTE DEL CENTRO SOBRE EL AGUA Y TAMBIÉN
A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA BASADA EN LA SUPERFICIE DE CERCA
OBSERVACIONES 992 MB … 29.29 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
Aunque Isaac YA NO ES UN HURACAN … que amenaza la vida
LOS PELIGROS DE LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA … INTERIOR … Y TORNADOS SON
Sigue produciendo.

MAREJADA … LA COMBINACIÓN DE UNA MAREJADA Y MAREA LA VOLUNTAD
CAUSA áreas normalmente secas CERCA DE LA COSTA ser inundado por la subida
AGUAS. El agua podría llegar a las profundidades SIGUIENTES sobre el suelo
SI SURGE EL PICO SE PRODUCE EN EL MOMENTO DE MAREA ALTA …

* Mississippi y Louisiana … SURESTE DE 4 A 8 FT
* ALABAMA … 2 A 4 PIES
* CENTRO-SUR DE LOUISIANA … 1 a 3 pies
* Panhandle de Florida … 1 a 2 pies

Las aguas más profundas OCURRE LO LARGO DE LA COSTA INMEDIATA EN LAS ZONAS DE
VIENTOS HACIA TIERRA. SURGE inundaciones relacionadas DEPENDE DEL PARIENTE
MOMENTO DE LA MAREJADA Y EL CICLO DE MAREA … y puede variar mucho a lo largo
Distancias cortas. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR
VER PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO. CERCA DE LA
COSTA … LA MAREJADA SERÁN ACOMPAÑADOS POR OLAS GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS.

Basándose en las observaciones de la National mareógrafos Servicio Oceánico … AT
NUEVO CANAL DE LA ESTACIÓN DE LOUISIANA … una marejada de cerca de 6 pies es
PERSISTIENDO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE lago Pontchartrain … Y UN
VALOR DE LA MAREJADA CERCA DE 5 PIES EN CONTINUA Waveland.

VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE CONTINUARA A TRAVES DE LA ATENCIÓN
ÁREA DE HASTA ESTA TARDE.

LLUVIA … ISAAC SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 7 A 14 PULGADAS … CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS
POSIBLE … MÁS DE NORTE Y ESTE DE LOUISIANA …. MUCHO DE
MISSISSIPPI … SUROESTE DE ALABAMA … ARKANSAS Y EN EL SUR
MISSOURI A VIERNES. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR UNA CONSIDERABLE
TIERRAS BAJAS INUNDACIONES. EL POTENCIAL DE LLUVIAS FUERTES SE DIFUSIÓN
AL ESTE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA EN PARTES DE LA MITAD OCCIDENTAL Y VALLE DE OHIO
REGIONES.

TORNADOS … TORNADOS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO
REGIÓN Y PARTES DE LA BAJA POR valle del río Mississippi
HOY.

SURF SURF … RIP PELIGROSO Y CONDICIONES ACTUALES CONTINUARA
AFECTAR LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA Y LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE
PROXIMOS DIAS.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
————-
ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 400 PM CDT.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART

Hurricane Local Statements for ISAAC

Issuing WFO Homepage Hurricane Local Statement
Shreveport, LA 1248 PM CDT THU AUG 30
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA 1040 AM CDT THU AUG 30
Jackson, MS 1036 AM CDT THU AUG 30
Lake Charles, LA 1019 AM CDT THU AUG 30
San Angelo, TX 655 AM CDT THU AUG 30

21 Aug 2012: Tropical Storm Isaac poses possible threat to GOP convention in Florida

22 Aug 2012:

The Weather Channel (www.weather.com):

Tropical Storm Isaac is forecast to continue strengthening steadily as it moves through the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday and into the northeast Caribbean by Thursday. Isaac could become a hurricane as early as Thursday.

Residents and visitors of the northern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, southeastern United States and the central/eastern Gulf Coast should watch the progress of Isaac closely over the next week or more.

Initial impacts from Isaac will be felt in the northeastern Caribbean islands Wednesday into Thursday. Numerous watches and warnings have been issued, including a hurricane watch for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the southern Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico will see its greatest impacts from Isaac on Thursday.

(TRACK ISAAC: Interactive hurricane tracker)

The Weather Channel (www.weather.com):
Tormenta tropical Isaac se prevé continuar fortaleciendo constantemente mientras se mueve a través de las Antillas menores del Norte el miércoles y en el Caribe noreste para el jueves. Isaac podría convertirse en un huracán tan pronto como el jueves.
Los residentes y visitantes de el Caribe Norte, Península de Yucatán, sureste de Estados Unidos y el central y oriental del Golfo deben vigilar el progreso de Isaac estrechamente la próxima semana o más.
Impactos iniciales de Isaac se sentirán en las Islas del Caribe noreste el miércoles al jueves. Se han publicado numerosos relojes y advertencias, incluyendo una vigilancia de huracán para Puerto Rico, las Islas Vírgenes y República Dominicana del Sur. Puerto Rico verá sus mayores impactos de Isaac el jueves.
The Weather Channel (www.weather.com) :
Tempête tropicale Isaac prévoit continuer renforcer régulièrement lorsqu’il se déplace à travers les petites Antilles du Nord, le mercredi et dans les Caraïbes du nord-est par jeudi. Isaac pourrait devenir un ouragan dès jeudi.
Résidents et visiteurs de la Caraïbe du Nord, péninsule du Yucatan, sud-est des États-Unis et le central/eastern Gulf Coast devraient surveiller les progrès d’Isaac étroitement au cours de la semaine prochaine ou plus.
Les impacts initiaux d’Isaac feront sentir dans les îles des Caraïbes du nord-est mercredi à jeudi. Nombreuses veilles et avertissements ont été émis, y compris une veille d’ouragan pour Porto Rico, les îles Vierges américaines et la République dominicaine du Sud. Puerto Rico verra ses répercussions les plus importantes d’Isaac le jeudi.
24 Aug 2012 0856 GMT/UTC:
Haiti, Dominican Republic await Tropical Storm Isaac
Tropical Storm Isaac Storm warnings have already been declared for Puerto Rico and parts of the US Virgin Island  Haiti and the Dominican Republic are braced for a battering as Tropical Storm Isaac approaches Hispaniola, the island shared by the two countries.Some 400,000 Haitians still living in makeshift camps after a deadly earthquake in 2010 are “amongst the most vulnerable”, aid groups warn.Isaac could have become a hurricane by the time it is due to hit the island later today (Friday), meteorologists say – BBC News
Haití, República Dominicana esperan Tormenta Tropical Isaac
Advertencias de tormenta tropical Isaac tormenta ya han sido declaradas para Puerto Rico y partes de la Virgin Island
Haití y República Dominicana son apoyados por una agresión como Tormenta Tropical Isaac se acerca a la española, la isla compartida por los dos países.
Unos 400.000 haitianos siguen viviendo en campamentos improvisados tras un mortífero terremoto en 2010 son “entre los más vulnerables”, advierten grupos de ayuda.
Isaac podría han convertido en un huracán por el momento es debido al éxito la isla hoy (viernes), dicen los meteorólogos – BBC News
Haïti, République dominicaine attendent tempête tropicale Isaac
Avertissements de tempête tropicale Isaac tempête ont déjà été déclarés pour Porto Rico et les parties de l’île vierge US
Haïti et la République dominicaine sont contreventés pour un percutant l’approche de la tempête tropicale Isaac Hispaniola, l’île partagée par les deux pays.
Quelque 400 000 Haïtiens vivent toujours dans des camps de fortune après un tremblement de terre meurtrier en 2010 sont « parmi les plus vulnérables », avertissent les groupes d’aide.
Isaac aurait pu devenir un ouragan au moment où qu’elle est due à succès l’île plus tard aujourd’hui (vendredi), météorologues disent – BBC News
25 Aug 2012 1642 GMT/UTC

TWC: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Florida Keys sometime Sunday, with conditions to deteriorate in southern Florida throughout the day Sunday.The 11 a.m. advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center reports Isaac’s winds at 60 mph with its pressure at 998 millibars, a slight increase from the advisory three hours earlier. The system was moving northwest at 14 mph.Even though Isaac weakened briefly overnight as it moved over the mountains along the western tip of Hispanola, the tropical storm is expected to strengthen moving forward. The storm’s projected track has shifted slightly to the east, and remained a possible threat to Tampa, Fla., where the Republican National Convention starts Monday.Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Isaac approaches the state.Scott said the goal was to make sure every local, state and federal agency “has the exact same information” on the storm and preparations in order to make informed decisions. He issued the state of emergency Saturday during a media briefing in Broward County.Dr. Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center, said the storm has shifted in a way that could lead to Isaac, already a huge tropical storm, to increase in intensity.”Over the last several days we’ve been talking about how interdependent the track intensity forecasts are in this case relative how much time the center of Isaac spends over land on the way from the Caribbean to Florida, said Dr. Rick Knabb, head of the National Hurricane Center on The Weather Channel.”Unfortunately for the U.S., it took a path of least resistence by going in between Haiti and  Cuba. There is still some interaction with terrain there disrupting circulation somewhat. But, compared to yesterday, we’re more confident — unfortunately for Florida — that it’s going to take a path that spends more time over the land mass of Cuba that we thought possible yesterday.”Knabb said he expects conditions to begin “to go downhill” in Florida early Sunday, adding that he is “concerned about southwest Florida, not just the southeast, because they’re very, very vulnerable to storm surge down there, and, as of our 8am advisory, we’re talking about the potential for 5-to-7 feet of storm surge inundation in portions of the coastal areas of southwestern Florida.Said Knabb: “The intensity (of Isaac) even if it remains over water is still uncertain. We can’t 100 percent guarantee that a hurricane is going to cross over the Keys of southern Florida, but the chances are high enough that we’re forecasting that, and there is a hurricane warning down there.”

Spanish:

Tropical Storm Isaac se espera que sea un huracán en el momento en que llegue a los Cayos de la Florida en algún momento del domingo, con las condiciones que se deterioran en el sur de Florida durante todo el día domingo.

De las 11 am aviso emitido por el Centro Nacional de Huracanes informa vientos de Isaac a 60 millas por hora con su presión a 998 milibares, un ligero aumento de los asesores tres horas antes. El sistema se movía hacia el noroeste a 14 mph.

A pesar de que Isaac se debilitó brevemente durante la noche mientras se movía sobre las montañas a lo largo de la punta occidental de la Española, la tormenta tropical se espera que se fortalezca hacia adelante. Pista proyectada de la tormenta se ha desplazado ligeramente hacia el este, y se mantuvo una posible amenaza a Tampa, Florida, donde la Convención Nacional Republicana comienza el lunes.

Gobernador de Florida, Rick Scott ha declarado el estado de emergencia como la tormenta tropical Isaac se acerca al estado.

Scott dijo que el objetivo era asegurarse de que todas las agencias locales, estatales y federal “tiene la misma información” sobre la tormenta y los preparativos con el fin de tomar decisiones informadas. Emitió el estado de emergencia el sábado durante una rueda de prensa en el condado de Broward.

Dr. Rick Knabb, director del Centro Nacional de Huracanes, dijo que la tormenta ha pasado de una manera que podría llevar a Isaac, ya es una tormenta tropical enorme, aumentando en intensidad.

“En los últimos días hemos estado hablando de cómo interdependiente de los pronósticos de intensidad de pesca son en este caso relativo cuánto tiempo el centro de Isaac pasa por la tierra en el camino desde el Caribe hasta Florida, dijo el Dr. Rick Knabb, jefe de el Centro Nacional de Huracanes en The Weather Channel.

“Desafortunadamente para los EE.UU., tomó el camino de menor resistencia yendo entre Haití y Cuba Todavía hay cierta interacción con el terreno no interrumpir la circulación de alguna manera, pero, en comparación con ayer, estamos más seguros -.. Desafortunadamente para Florida – – que va a tomar un camino que pasa más tiempo en la masa de tierra de Cuba que creíamos posible ayer “.

Knabb dijo que espera que las condiciones para comenzar “a ir cuesta abajo” en Florida la madrugada del domingo, y agregó que está “preocupado por el suroeste de Florida, no sólo el sureste, ya que son muy, muy vulnerables a la marejada ciclónica allá abajo, y, a partir de 08 a.m. nuestro asesoramiento, estamos hablando de la posibilidad de que de 5 a 7 pies de inundación de mareas de tempestad en las partes de las zonas costeras del suroeste de Florida.

Dicho Knabb:. “La intensidad (de Isaac), incluso si permanece sobre el agua es aún incierto Podemos no es 100 por ciento de garantía de que un huracán va a cruzar los Cayos del sur de Florida, pero las ocasiones son lo suficientemente alto que nosotros” volver a pronosticar que, y hay una advertencia de huracán ahí abajo “.

French:

La tempête tropicale Isaac devrait être un ouragan au moment où il atteint parfois les Keys de Floride dimanche, avec des conditions à se détériorer dans le sud de la Floride pendant toute la journée du dimanche.

De 11 heures consultatif émis par le Centre national des ouragans rapporte vents d’Isaac à 60 mph avec sa pression de 998 millibars, soit une légère hausse dans les trois heures plus tôt consultatifs. Le système se déplaçait au nord-ouest à 14 mph.

Même si Isaac affaibli brièvement durant la nuit pendant qu’il se déplaçait sur les montagnes le long de la pointe ouest de l’Hispaniola, la tempête tropicale devrait se renforcer aller de l’avant. La trajectoire prévue de la tempête s’est déplacée légèrement à l’est, et demeure une menace possible à Tampa, en Floride, où la Convention nationale républicaine commence lundi.

Floride gouverneur Rick Scott a déclaré l’état d’urgence alors que la tempête tropicale Isaac se rapproche de l’état.

Scott a déclaré que le but était de s’assurer que chaque local, organisme étatique et fédéral »a exactement les mêmes informations” sur la tempête et les préparatifs en vue de prendre des décisions éclairées. Il a émis l’état d’urgence samedi lors d’une conférence de presse à Broward County.

Dr. Rick Knabb, directeur du National Hurricane Center, a déclaré la tempête s’est déplacée d’une manière qui pourrait conduire à Isaac, déjà une énorme tempête tropicale, à augmenter en intensité.

«Au cours des derniers jours, nous avons parlé de la façon dont interdépendant, les prévisions d’intensité de piste sont dans ce cas par rapport combien de temps le centre d’Isaac passe sur la terre sur le chemin de la Caraïbe en Floride, a déclaré le Dr Rick Knabb, chef de le Centre national des ouragans sur The Weather Channel.

“Malheureusement pour les Etats-Unis, il a fallu un chemin de moindre résistance en allant entre Haïti et Cuba Il ya encore une certaine interaction avec le terrain il perturber la circulation un peu Mais, par rapport à hier, nous sommes plus confiants -.. Malheureusement pour la Floride – – que ça va prendre un chemin qui passe plus de temps sur la masse terrestre de Cuba que nous pensions possible hier “.

Knabb a dit qu’il s’attend à ce que les conditions pour commencer “à descendre” en Floride dimanche matin, ajoutant qu’il est «préoccupé sud-ouest de la Floride, et pas seulement le sud-est, parce qu’ils sont très, très vulnérable à une onde de tempête là-bas, et, comme d’ 8 heures de notre conseil, nous parlons de la possibilité pour le 5-à-7 pieds d’inondation des ondes de tempête dans les parties des zones côtières du sud-ouest de la Floride.

Knabb dit:. “L’intensité (d’Isaac), même si elle reste au-dessus de l’eau est encore incertain Nous ne pouvons pas garantir à 100 pour cent que l’ouragan va traverser les Keys de la Floride du Sud, mais les chances sont assez élevées que nous re prévision de cela, et il ya un ouragan en garde là-bas. ”

25 Aug 2012 2017 GMT/UTC:
Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012:
Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac’s center passed over Haiti’s southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac’s heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14″ of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10″ of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.
Spanish:
Tropical Storm Isaac está golpeando Haití y la República Dominicana con lluvias torrenciales que causan inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra extremadamente peligroso. Centro de Isaac pasó por la península suroeste de Haití esta mañana, el seguimiento de cerca de 50 millas al oeste de la capital, Port-au-Prince. A medida que el centro se alejó hacia el noroeste, más fuertes tormentas de Isaac se trasladó a tierra a través de la salida del sol cerca de la Española, y ahora el dumping fuertes lluvias con la precipitación pluvial que se acerca una pulgada por hora, de acuerdo a las recientes estimaciones de microondas satelitales. Barahona, en la costa sur de la República Dominicana había recibido 5,14 “de lluvia a partir del 8 am EDT esta mañana, y es probable que algunas áreas montañosas de Haití y la República Dominicana ya han recibido hasta 10” de la lluvia de Isaac. Estas lluvias continuarán aunque gran parte del día, y tienen el potencial de causar grandes pérdidas de vida en La Española.
French:
La tempête tropicale Isaac bat Haïti et la République dominicaine avec des pluies torrentielles qui provoquent des inondations et des glissements de terrain extrêmement dangereux. Centre d’Isaac passé sur la péninsule sud-ouest d’Haïti ce matin, à environ 50 miles de suivi à l’ouest de la capitale Port-au-Prince. En tant que centre arrachée au nord-ouest, les plus lourds orages Isaac déplacé à terre sur Hispaniola près lever du soleil, et vident maintenant de fortes pluies avec des taux de précipitations approchant un pouce par heure, selon de récentes estimations satellitaires micro-ondes. Barahona, sur la côte sud de la République dominicaine avait reçu 5.14 “de pluie à partir de 8 h HAE ce matin, et il est probable que certaines régions montagneuses d’Haïti et la République dominicaine ont déjà reçu jusqu’à 10” de pluie Isaac. Ces pluies se poursuivront même si une grande partie de la journée, et ont le potentiel de causer des pertes de vie élevée à Hispaniola.
26 Aug 2012:

Killer Storm Isaac Leaves Four dead in Haiti and one in Dominican Republic

By Associated Press

HAVANA — Tropical Storm Isaac pushed over Cuba on Saturday after sweeping across Haiti’s southern peninsula, where it caused flooding and at least four deaths, adding to the misery of a poor nation still trying to recover from the terrible 2010 earthquake.

Isaac’s center made landfall just before midday near the far-eastern tip of Cuba, downing trees and power lines. In the picturesque city of Baracoa, the storm surge flooded the seaside Malecon and a block inland, destroying two homes.

Forecasters said Isaac poses a threat to Florida Monday and Tuesday, just as the Republican Party gathers for its national convention in Tampa. It could eventually hit the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of nearly 100 mph (160 kph).

Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency, officials urged vacationers to leave the Florida Keys and the U.S. National Hurricane Center said a hurricane warning was in effect there, as well as for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south to Ocean Reef and for Florida Bay.

At least four people were reported dead in Haiti including a 10-year-old girl who had a wall fall on her, according to the country’s Civil Protection Office. There were no immediate details on how the others died.

The government also reported two injuries; “considerable damage” to agriculture and homes; nearly 8,000 people who were evacuated from their houses or quake shelters; and more than 4,000 who were taken to temporary shelters.

Many, however, stayed and suffered.

The Grise River overflowed north of Port-au-Prince, sending chocolate-brown water spilling through the sprawling shantytown of Cite Soleil, where many people grabbed what possessions they could and carried them on their heads, wading through waist-deep water.

“From last night, we’re in misery,” said Cite Soleil resident Jean-Gymar Joseph. “All our children are sleeping in the mud, in the rain.”

Scores of tents in quake settlements collapsed. In a roadside lot in Cite Soleil, the dozens of tents and shelters provided by international groups after the earthquake were tossed to the ground like pieces of crumpled paper, and the occupants tried to save their belongings.

“They promised they were going to build us a sturdy home and it never came,” Jean-Robert Sauviren, an unemployed 63-year-old father of six said as he stood barefoot in the water and held aloft his arms. “Maybe we don’t deserve anything.”

Ricknel Charles, a 42-year-old pastor, sheltered some 50 displaced people in his church.

“This is the only thing I can do for them: give them a place to sleep,” Charles said.

About 300 homes in Cite Soleil lost their roofs or were flooded three feet (one meter) deep, according to Rachel Brumbaugh, operation manager for the U.S. nonprofit group World Vision.

Doctors Without Borders said it anticipated a spike in cholera cases due to flooding and it was preparing to receive more patients.

The international airport reopened by the afternoon but there was still extensive flooding throughout Port-au-Prince after 24 hours of steady rain.

Spanish:

Killer Storm Isaac hojas muertas en Haití Cuatro y uno en la República Dominicana

Por Associated Press

LA HABANA – La tormenta tropical Isaac empujó sobre Cuba el sábado después de barrer a través de la península sur de Haití, donde causó inundaciones y muertes por lo menos cuatro, sumando a la miseria de una nación pobre todavía está tratando de recuperarse de la terrible terremoto de 2010.

Centro de Isaac tocó tierra justo antes del mediodía cerca de la punta extremo oriental de Cuba, los árboles y derribando cables de electricidad. En la pintoresca ciudad de Baracoa, la tormenta inundó el malecón costero y un bloque de tierra adentro, destruyendo dos casas.

Los meteorólogos dijeron que Isaac representa una amenaza a Florida el lunes y martes, al igual que el Partido Republicano se reúne para su convención nacional en Tampa. Con el tiempo, podría llegar a la península de Florida como un huracán de categoría 2 con vientos de casi 100 mph (160 kph).

Gobernador de Florida, Rick Scott, declaró el estado de emergencia, las autoridades instaron a los turistas abandonar los Cayos de la Florida y los EE.UU. Centro Nacional de Huracanes dijo una advertencia de huracán estaba en efecto allí, así como para la costa oeste de Florida desde el sur hasta Bonita Beach Ocean Reef y Florida Bay.

Al menos cuatro personas murieron en Haití, entre ellos una niña de 10 años de edad, quien sufrió una caída en la pared, según la Oficina del país de Protección Civil. No hubo detalles inmediatos sobre la forma en que los otros murieron.

El Gobierno también informó de dos lesiones; “daños considerables” a la agricultura y los hogares; cerca de 8.000 personas que fueron evacuadas de sus casas o refugios del terremoto, y más de 4.000 que fueron llevados a los refugios temporales.

Muchos, sin embargo, se quedó y sufrió.

El Grise desbordes del río al norte de Port-au-Prince, el envío de color chocolate se derrame agua a través de la extensa barriada de Cite Soleil, donde mucha gente lo tomó posesiones que pudieron y los llevó sobre sus cabezas, vadeando a través de agua hasta la cintura.

“Desde anoche, estamos en la miseria”, dijo el residente de Cité Soleil, Jean-Joseph Gymar. “Todos nuestros niños están durmiendo en el barro, bajo la lluvia.”

Decenas de tiendas de campaña en los asentamientos del terremoto derrumbó. En muchas carreteras en Cité Soleil, las docenas de tiendas de campaña y refugios proporcionados por los grupos internacionales tras el terremoto fueron arrojados al suelo como pedazos de papel arrugado, y sus ocupantes trataron de salvar sus pertenencias.

“Nos prometieron que nos iban a construir un hogar estable y nunca llegó”, dijo Jean-Robert Sauviren, un desempleado de 63 años de edad, padre de seis hijos, dijo mientras permanecía de pie descalzo en el agua y en alto sus brazos. “Tal vez no merecemos nada”.

Ricknel Charles, un pastor de 42 años de edad, al abrigo de unas 50 personas desplazadas en su iglesia.

“Esta es la única cosa que puedo hacer por ellos: darles un lugar para dormir”, dijo Charles.

Cerca de 300 viviendas en Cité Soleil quedaron sin techo o se inundaron tres pies (un metro) de profundidad, según Rachel Brumbaugh, gerente de operaciones de la Visión Mundial EE.UU. sin fines de lucro grupo.

Médicos Sin Fronteras dijo que prevé un aumento en los casos de cólera debido a las inundaciones y se prepara para recibir a más pacientes.

El aeropuerto internacional volvió a abrir por la tarde, pero aún había grandes inundaciones en todo Port-au-Prince, después de 24 horas de lluvia continua.

French:

Tueur de tempête Isaac Feuilles Quatre morts en Haïti et l’autre en République Dominicaine

Par Associated Press

LA HAVANE – La tempête tropicale Isaac poussé sur Cuba le samedi après déferle sur la péninsule sud d’Haïti, où il a causé des inondations et au moins quatre morts, en ajoutant à la misère d’un pays pauvre encore en train de se remettre de la terrible tremblement de terre de 2010.

Centre Isaac a touché terre juste avant midi près de la pointe extrême-orientale de Cuba, les arbres et les lignes électriques Downing. Dans la pittoresque ville de Baracoa, l’onde de tempête a inondé le Malecon et un bloc intérieur des terres, détruisant deux maisons.

Les prévisionnistes dit Isaac constitue une menace pour la Floride lundi et mardi, tout comme le Parti républicain se réunit pour sa convention nationale à Tampa. Il pourrait éventuellement frapper la péninsule de la Floride comme un ouragan de catégorie 2 avec des vents de près de 100 mph (160 kmh).

Floride gouverneur Rick Scott a déclaré l’état d’urgence, les responsables demandé aux vacanciers de quitter les Keys de Floride et le US National Hurricane Center dit un avertissement d’ouragan est en vigueur là-bas, ainsi que pour la côte ouest de la Floride du sud pour Bonita Beach Ocean Reef et pour la baie de Floride.

Au moins quatre personnes ont été déclarées mortes en Haïti, y compris une fillette de 10 ans qui a fait une chute sur son mur, selon le Bureau du pays de la protection civile. Il n’y avait pas de détails sur la façon immédiats les autres sont morts.

Le gouvernement a également fait état de deux blessés; “des dégâts considérables” pour l’agriculture et les maisons; près de 8.000 personnes qui ont été évacuées de leurs maisons ou des abris du tremblement de terre, et plus de 4.000 qui ont été prises pour des abris temporaires.

Beaucoup, cependant, sont restés et ont souffert.

La rivière Grise débordé au nord de Port-au-Prince, l’envoi de brun chocolat humidifier le bidonville tentaculaire à travers de Cité Soleil, où beaucoup de gens saisi ce qu’ils pouvaient biens et les emportèrent sur leurs têtes, pataugeant dans l’eau jusqu’à la taille.

“De la nuit dernière, nous sommes dans la misère», a déclaré Cité Soleil résident Jean-Joseph Gymar. «Tous nos enfants dorment dans la boue, sous la pluie.”

Des dizaines de tentes dans les campements du tremblement de terre s’est effondrée. Dans beaucoup en bordure de route à Cité Soleil, des dizaines de tentes et des abris fournis par des groupes internationaux, après le tremblement de terre ont été jetés sur le sol comme des morceaux de papier froissé, et les occupants ont essayé de sauver leurs biens.

“Ils ont promis qu’ils allaient nous construire une maison solide et il n’est jamais venu», Jean-Robert Sauviren, un chômeur de 63 ans, père de six enfants a dit qu’il était pieds nus dans l’eau et a brandi ses bras. “Peut-être que nous ne méritons pas quoi que ce soit.”

Ricknel Charles, un pasteur de 42 ans, à l’abri quelque 50 personnes déplacées dans son église.

«C’est la seule chose que je peux faire pour eux: leur donner un endroit pour dormir», dit Charles.

Environ 300 maisons à Cité Soleil ont perdu leurs toits ont été inondées ou trois pieds (un mètre) de profondeur, selon Rachel Brumbaugh, directrice des opérations pour la vision américaine à but non lucratif du monde groupe.

Médecins Sans Frontières a déclaré qu’il s’attend à un pic de cas de choléra dus aux inondations et il se préparait à recevoir plus de patients.

La réouverture de l’aéroport international de l’après-midi, mais il y avait encore d’importantes inondations à travers Port-au-Prince après 24 heures de pluie continue.

26 Aug 2012 1806 GMT/UTC: About 20 minutes ago – “The center of Tropical Storm #Isaac is 50 miles south-southeast of Key West.”  (@NWSKeyWest)
26 Aug 2012 2351 GMT/UTC: Huge evacuation of BP workers from Gulf #oil rigs now underway – CNN
28 Aug 2012: Organizers, delegates remain concerned about Isaac as RNC gets under way – http://bit.ly/OHLozk

29 Aug 2012:

Leeve overflows: 75 rescued in Plaquemines Parish – 25 still stranded

BRAITHWAITE, La. —  Rescue workers and public citizens rescued 75 people from flooded homes and rooftops from the town of Braithwaite after it was inundated with 10-12 feet of water, Parish President Billy Nungesser said Wednesday morning.Eyewitness News’ Maya Rodriguez said 25 people were still reportedly awaiting rescue on the parish’s east bank on rooftops and in attics. – WWLTV.com
More here
30 Aug 2012:

Dam expected to fail – Mandatory evacuation near Tangipahoa River – risk to 40,000 to 60,000 people

BATON ROUGE — Tangipahoa Parish officials have issued a mandatory evacuation for communities near the Tangipahoa River because Percy Quin Dam in Mississippi is expected to fail, officials said Thursday. The dam in Pike County is in imminent danger of failure due to flooding from Hurricane Isaac, officials said.

U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise announced that parish President Gordon Burgess called for immediate, mandatory evacuation on his Facebook page, saying the dam on Lake Tangipahoa is in “extreme danger” of failing.

The evacuation area runs from Kentwood to Robert along the river, he said.

State Police Superintendent Col. Mike Edmonson said Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness head Kevin Davis was on his way to Tangipahoa to work with Burgess on the evacuation. The National Guard has a helicopter hovering over the dam to monitor the situation, Edmonson said. As of 10:45 the structure was still holding, he said. – nola.com

Gov @BobbyJindal: Could be between 40k-60k people affected by the flooding in Tangipahoa if dam breaks

ERNESTO DISSIPATES OVER S. MEXICO…HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES ~ ERNESTO SE DISIPA SOBRE EL SUR DE MÉXICO…CONTINÚA LA AMENAZA DE LLUVIA PESADA- Updated 10 Aug 2012 1644 GMT/UTC

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

REMINDER: YOU MAY HAVE TO RELOAD/REFRESH PAGE TO UPDATE IMAGES

AVISO: PUEDE QUE TENGA QUE RECARGAR/ACTUALIZAR LA PÁGINA PARA ACTUALIZAR IMÁGENES

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

WTNT35 KNHC 101434
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

ERNESTO DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO…HEAVY
RAIN THREAT CONTINUES

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…18.0N 99.2W
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…25 MPH…35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. AT 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE REMNANTS OF
ERNESTO WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 99.2
WEST. THE REMANTS OF ERNESTO ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OFF MEXICO INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC…AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN A DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH…35 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN PASSING SHOWERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-

RAINFALL…ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ…TABASCO…PUEBLA…OAXACA…AND GUERRERO THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT35 KNHC 101434
TCPAT5

BOLETÍN
RESTOS DE ERNESTO CONSULTIVA NÚMERO 37
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 AM CDT VIERNES, 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2012

ERNESTO SE DISIPA SOBRE EL SUR DE MÉXICO…PESADO
CONTINÚA LA AMENAZA DE LLUVIA

RESUMEN DE 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC… INFORMACIÓN
———————————————–
UBICACIÓN…18.0N 99.2W
UNOS 215 MI…345 KM OSO DE VERACRUZ MÉXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…25 MPH…35 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…W O 270 GRADOS A 15 MPH…24 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA…1005 MB…29.68 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
NO HAY NINGÚN EFECTO DE EN RELOJES O ADVERTENCIAS COSTERA.

DISCUSIÓN Y OUTLOOK DE 48 HORAS
——————————
LA CIRCULACIÓN DE ERNESTO SE HA VISTO PERTURBADA POR LAS MONTAÑAS DE ALTA
DEL SUR DE MÉXICO. EN 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…LOS RESTOS DE
ERNESTO SE ENCONTRABAN CERCA DEL NORTE DE LA LATITUD 18.0…LONGITUD 99.2
OESTE. EL RETAL DE ERNESTO SE PREVÉ MOVER FRENTE A MÉXICO EN
EL PACÍFICO ORIENTAL…Y TIENEN EL POTENCIAL PARA CONVERTIRSE EN UN TROPICAL
CICLÓN EN UN DÍA O DOS.

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTÁN CERCA DE 25 MPH…35 KM/H…CON MAYOR
RÁFAGAS EN LAS DUCHAS DE PASO.

ESTIMADO MÍNIMO DE PRESIÓN CENTRAL ES DE 1005 MB…29.68 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-

LLUVIAS…ERNESTO SE ESPERA PRODUCIR LLUVIAS ADICIONALES
ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 5 PULGADAS EN LOS ESTADOS MEXICANOS DE
VERACRUZ…TABASCO…PUEBLA…OAXACA…Y GUERRERO AL VIERNES
NOCHE. SON AISLADOS MÁXIMO TORMENTA IMPORTES TOTALES DE 15 PULGADAS
EN ASOCIACIÓN CON ERNESTO. ESTAS PRECIPITACIONES PUEDEN
PRODUCIR MORTALES INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA.

ASESOR PRÓXIMO
————-
ESTE ES EL ÚLTIMO AVISO PÚBLICO EMITIDO POR EL HURACÁN NACIONAL
CENTRO EN ESTE SISTEMA.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

(Image: wunderground.com)
TD5 Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)
REMNANTS OF ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IS NO
LONGER TRACKABLE. ERNESTO NOW CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF MEXICO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF
THIS IS THE CASE…IT WILL ACQUIRE A NEW DEPRESSION NUMBER…OR A
NEW NAME IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
ERNESTO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 18.0N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH
12H  11/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

RESTOS DE ERNESTO DISCUSIÓN NÚMERO 37
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 AM CDT VIERNES, 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2012

OBSERVACIONES DE LA SUPERFICIE DE MÉXICO INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE BAJO NIVEL
DE CIRCULACIÓN SE HA CONVERTIDO EN PERTURBADA POR EL TERRENO ALTO Y NO
YA TRACKABLE. ERNESTO AHORA CONSISTE EN UNA AMPLIA ÁREA DE BAJA
PRESIÓN SOBRE EL SUR DE MÉXICO. FUERTES LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS CON EL
RESTOS DE ERNESTO CONTINUARÁ DURANTE EL SIGUIENTE DÍA O DOS.
ESTAS LLUVIAS PROBABLEMENTE PRODUCIRÁ INUNDACIONES EN GRAN PARTE DE FLASH
SUR DE MÉXICO.

SE ESPERA QUE LOS RESTOS DE ERNESTO JUGADA FRENTE A MÉXICO EN LA
PACÍFICO ORIENTAL CON EL POTENCIAL PARA CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLÓN TROPICAL. SI
ESTE ES EL CASO…ADQUIRIRÁ UN NUEVO NÚMERO DE DEPRESIÓN…O A
NUEVO NOMBRE SI SE CONVIERTE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL.

ESTE ES EL ÚLTIMO AVISO EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES DE
ERNESTO.

POSICIONES DE PREVISIÓN Y VIENTOS DE MAX

INIT 10/1500Z 18.0N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH
12 H 11/0000Z…SE DISIPÓ

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

CNN: Tropical Storm Ernesto expected to become a hurricane

CANCUN, Mexico Aug 7, 5:27 PM EDT (AP) — Hundreds of tourists evacuated beach resorts along Mexico’s Caribbean coast as Hurricane Ernesto headed toward a Tuesday night landfall near Mexico’s border with Belize, bringing the threat of powerful winds and torrential rains. More here

NHC_DrRickKnabb: Ham radio operators indicate storm surge flooding more than 2 ft on Ambergris Care Island, Belize.

NHC_DrRickKnabb: Operadores de radio de jamón indican marejada inundaciones de más de 2 pies en la isla de Ambergris cuidado, Belize.

(Photo: latribuna.hn)
At least 155 people were affected by the hurricane “Ernesto”, in Guatemala
(Click photo for source)

Guatemala:

The National Coordinator for disaster reduction (Conred) explained in a statement that the rains affected 155 people in El Rastro and Ixobel neighborhoods and in the colonies the miracle and Santa Fe, in the municipality of Poptún, in the Northern Department of Petén.

La Coordinadora Nacional para la reducción de desastres (Conred) explicó en un comunicado que las lluvias afectaban a 155 personas en El Rastro y Ixobel barrios y en las colonias el milagro y Santa Fe, en el municipio de Poptún, en el Departamento de norte de Petén

–  latribuna.hn

Aug 10 (Reuters) – The death toll attributed to the storm Ernesto rose to six on Friday although it continued to weaken as it passed through Mexico’s eastern Veracruz state. – Alert Net

(Image: NHC)
Mexico: Hurricane Warning for Bud

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 242055
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

…HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.4N 106.4W
ABOUT 225 MI…365 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…962 MB…28.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM
MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. ON THIS
TRACK…THE CENTER OF BUD WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
LATE FRIDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH…175 KM/H…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT…AND BUD COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS ON FRIDAY. BUD IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES…185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 962 MB…28.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS TONIGHT…MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL…BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN…COLIMA…JALISCO…AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT…WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

000
WTPZ32 TJSJ 242055
TCPEP2

BOLETN
HURACAN BUD ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT jue 24 de mayo 2012

… AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA EMISIN DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE MEXICO …

RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM PDT … 2100 UTC … INFORMACIN
———————————————-
UBICACIN 16.4N 106.4W …
ACERCA DE MI … 225 365 km SO de Manzanillo MEXICO
ACERCA DE MI … 450 280 km S de Cabo Corrientes MXICO
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 110 MPH … 175 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NE O 35 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 962 MB … 28.41 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DE
MANZANILLO hacia el noroeste hasta Cabo Corrientes y una tormenta tropical
VER DESDE CABO CORRIENTES HACIA EL NORTE HASTA SAN BLAS.

RESUMEN DE LOS RELOJES Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* LA COSTA DE MEXICO DESDE CABO DE MANZANILLO NOROESTE
CORRIENTES

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* LA COSTA DE MEXICO DESDE PUNTA SAN TELMO HACIA EL OESTE A ESTE DE
MANZANILLO

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* LA COSTA DE MEXICO DESDE PUNTA SAN TELMO HACIA EL OESTE A ESTE DE
MANZANILLO

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* LA COSTA DE MEXICO DEL NORTE de Cabo Corrientes a San Blas

UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES
DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. UN AVISO suele emitir
36 HORAS ANTES DE LA OCURRENCIA DE PRIMERA ANTICIPADO-de tormenta tropical
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA … CONDICIONES QUE HACEN LOS PREPARATIVOS FUERA DE DIFCIL
O peligrosos. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER
TERMINADAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON
ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO … EN ESTE CASO EN EL
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES
DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA … EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 A 36 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON
POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA … GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 48 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR DE MONITOR
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE MEXICO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 200 PM PDT … 2100 UTC … EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BUD ESTABA LOCALIZADO
CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.4 NORTE … LONGITUD 106.4 OESTE. BUD SE MUEVE
HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H. UN GIRO HACIA EL
Norte-noreste a una velocidad de avance un poco ms lento SE ESPERA
ESTA NOCHE … SEGUIDO POR UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE viernes tarde. EN ESTE
TRAYECTORIA … EL CENTRO DE BUD MOVER interior a lo largo de la costa mexicana
TARDE EL VIERNES.

DATOS DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICO QUE
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 110 MPH … 175 KM / H…WITH
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. Bud es una HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA
SAFFIR-SIMPSON ESCALA DE VIENTO. LEVE FORTALECIMIENTO ES
POSIBLE ESTA NOCHE Y NOCHE … Y BUD PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN GRAN
HURACAN antes de debilitarse comienza el viernes. BUD SE ESPERA QUE
LLEGAR A LA COSTA DE MEXICO COMO UN HURACAN.

Vientos huracanados EXTIENDEN HASTA 35 MILLAS … 55 KM … DEL
VIENTOS DEL CENTRO … Y FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL-EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115
MILLAS … 185 KM.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA POR EL CAZADOR DE HURACANES
AVION ES 962 MB … 28.41 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SE ESPERA QUE LLEGAR A LA COSTA DENTRO DE
EL REA DE AVISO DE HURACAN POR LA TARDE DEL VIERNES. SE ESPERAN VIENTOS
PARA LLEGAR A LA PRIMERA FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL HURACAN Y
ADVERTENCIA TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE … LAS REAS HACER LOS PREPARATIVOS FUERA
Difiles o peligrosas. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD
DEBE SER TERMINADAS. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON
POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA viernes por la noche.

LLUVIA … BUD SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4
A 6 PULGADAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE MXICO EN LOS ESTADOS DE
MICHOACAN … … COLIMA JALISCO … Y el sur de Nayarit … CON POSIBLE
CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. ESTAS CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
PUEDEN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS.

MAREJADA … UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA PELIGROSA SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA
Inundaciones significativas COSTERA CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE
EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. CERCA DE LA COSTA … la abatida ser�
Acompañados por las olas de gran magnitud.

SURF … MAREJADAS GENERADOS POR BUD estn empezando a afectar PARTES DE
LAS COSTAS DEL SUR Y SUROESTE DE MXICO. ESTOS SON MAREJADAS
PUEDE CAUSAR LA VIDA O MUERTE Y SURF RIP condiciones actuales.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
————-
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA … 500 AM PDT.
ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 800 PDT PM.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR BERG / FRANKLIN

 

American Red Cross hurricane preparedness page

Preparaci para hurcnCruz Roja Americana (Spanish-language version)

Hurricane and severe weather checklist for boaters

(Image: weather.msfc.nasa.gov)
GOES Satellite image for Hurricane Bud 2145GMT/UTC
(Click on image to see larger image)