La Reunion/ Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA 06S 191500Z nr 25.7S 52.3E, moving SSW 14Kt (JTWC) – Updated 19 Jan 2018 1905Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA 06S

⚠️ La Reunion beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET- JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) Warning #28
Issued at 19/1500Z

sh06184

 

06s_191200sams

Google Earth Overlay
WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
191200Z — NEAR 25.0S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 52.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 27.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 30.4S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 32.2S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 33.0S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 34.7S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE
IMAGERY FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 191157Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH
POINT 06S WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AROUND TAU 12, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
(<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC BERGUITTA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE DUE TO FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGHOUT ETT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//
NNNN

RSMC LA REUNION

trajectoire B 19

ZCZC 245
WTIO30 FMEE 191214 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 52.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SW: 700 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 560 SW: 440 NW: 130
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/22 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/22 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/23 12 UTC: 37.0 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/24 12 UTC: 39.0 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-lalo6

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 19 Jan, 2018 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BERGUITTA is currently located near 22.8 S 54.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). BERGUITTA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Reunion
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

201806s3201806s_04

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

si201806_5day3

(Above image: @wunderground)

Other

dt1iomlvmaaonip

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 561
WTIO20 FMEE 181242 CCA
……………CORRECTIVE…………..
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 61.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
22.6 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Advertisements

Australia (WA): Tropical Cyclone JOYCE 05S 121800Z nr 20.7S 119.3E, moving SW 08kt (TCWC Perth) – Updated 12 Jan 2018 2145z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone JOYCE 05S

Australia: Tropical Cyclone Warning for Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey, and inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar.

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Joyce

Issued at 2:44 am AWST Saturday 13 January 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 34.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Joyce is moving southwest, inland from the east Pilbara coast. Although Joyce will weaken this morning, heavy rain and gusty winds are likely to continue along its track over the weekend.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey, and inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar..

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Sandfire to Pardoo Roadhouse.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Joyce at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.7 degrees South, 119.3 degrees East , 70 kilometres northwest of Marble Bar and 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Joyce should weaken this morning as it tracks to the southwest through the inland Pilbara.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour are possible along the coast from Pardoo Roadhouse through to De Grey and to inland areas as far as Marble Bar for a period on Saturday morning.

Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are likely to continue near the track of the system over the weekend. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 to 100 mm are expected, with isolated heavier falls of 100-250 mm possible near the system centre.

A Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches and Warnings are current. Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in areas from Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey and inland to Marble Bar need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR with CAUTION: People in areas from Wallal Downs to Pardoo Roadhouse are advised that the wind dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid any dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 13 1 20.7S 119.3E 35
+6hr 8 am January 13 tropical low 21.6S 118.5E 60
+12hr 2 pm January 13 tropical low 22.6S 117.6E 80
+18hr 8 pm January 13 tropical low 23.8S 116.8E 105
+24hr 2 am January 14 tropical low 24.9S 116.0E 130
+36hr 2 pm January 14 tropical low 27.1S 114.6E 165
+48hr 2 am January 15 tropical low 28.6S 113.6E 200
+60hr 2 pm January 15 tropical low 29.9S 113.0E 235
+72hr 2 am January 16 tropical low 31.1S 112.8E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Saturday

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) Warning #12A CORRECTED Corrected Final Warning
Issued at 12/1500Z

sh0518105s_121200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS33 PGTW 121500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 20.3S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 119.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 21.8S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 23.9S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 26.2S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 119.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM EAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYSTEM NOW INLAND WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH SATELLITE FIXES AND PORT HEDLAND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BANDS WITH A
CENTRAL VORTEX JUST EAST OF THE STATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM BEDOUT ISLAND
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC 05S
ON A TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LAND INTERACTION
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 05S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING OF AUSTRALIA.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jan, 2018 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm JOYCE is currently located near 20.3 S 119.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). JOYCE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Nullagine (21.9 S, 120.1 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Newman (23.3 S, 119.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Gascoyne Junction (25.1 S, 115.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

201805s1201805s_01

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:21S119E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1846UTC 12 JANUARY 2018

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Joyce was centred over land within 20 nautical
miles of
latitude twenty decimal seven south (20.7S)
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal three east (119.3E)
Recent movement : southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots over water easing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 13 January.

Winds above 34 knots within 75 nautical miles of centre over water until 0000
UTC 13 January with rough to very rough seas and low to moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 13 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 22.6 south 117.6 east over
land
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 13 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 24.9 south 116.0 east over
land
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 13 January 2018.

WEATHER PERTH

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone AVA (03S) 082100Z position nr 27.7S 46.8E, moving WSW 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jan 2018 2145z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone AVA (03S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) Warning #25
Issued at 08/2100Z

sh0318103s_081200sams

Google Earth Overlay

 

 
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 27.3S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 46.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 28.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 33.7S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 37.3S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 32 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 46.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 490 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTING THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS)
AND BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BEING OFFSET BY
COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HOWEVER, THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 03S WILL
INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRIOR TO TAU 12,
THE TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WTIH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTH THROUGH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WAS NOT PREDICTED IN THE
MODEL SOLUTION. DUE TO THE INACCURATE PREDICTION OF THE SYSTEMS
INITIAL DIRECTION THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

ZCZC 601
WTIO30 FMEE 081856
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 670 SE: 520 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 46.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/11 18 UTC: 49.2 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AVA’S STRUCTURE REMAINS ATYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM WITH A POOR LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION SEEN ON LATEST MW IMAGERY ALONG WITH DISPLACED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ON THE LATEST MSG1 IMAGERY, AN EXPOSED VORTEX IS SEEN
SOUTH OF FORT-DAUPHIN. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT
GALES FORCE WINDS ARE STILL ASSUMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE TRACK HAS TURNED WESTWARDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT TOMOROW, THE
RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND AVA SHOULD GRADUALLY CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.
A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD IS GRADUALLY
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BECOME INSUFFICIENT.
FROM WEDNESDAY, AVA SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAK, AND SHOULD EVOLVE PROGRESSIVELY IN WARM CORE SECLUSION.
AVA EXTRATROPICALISATION PROCESS IS FORECASTED TO BE ACHIEVE FROM
THURSDAY EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.=
NNNN

trajectoire1

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-lalo1

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jan, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AVA is currently located near 27.3 S 46.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). AVA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the French Southern Ocean and Antarctic Lands
        probability for TS is 95% in about 72 hours
    the Heard & McDonald Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201803s1201803s_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

si201803_5day1

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 905
WTIO24 FMEE 081841
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
NNNN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Vietnam: Tropical Depression ONE/ Agaton 01W 021500Z nr 9.8N 118.3E, moving W 15kt 1006hPa (JMA) – Published 02 Jan 2018 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression ONE ( 01W)

Agaton in Philippines

#AgatonPH HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF ABORLAN, PALAWAN – PAGASA

logo

TD
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 2 January 2018

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 2 January>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N9°50′ (9.8°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 3 January>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N9°55′ (9.9°)
E115°20′ (115.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 3 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°20′ (10.3°)
E112°05′ (112.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11
FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #AgatonPH
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 02 January 2018

#AgatonPH HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF ABORLAN, PALAWAN

• Moderate to heavy rains is expected over the areas with TCWS#1 as well as Bicol Region, Samar provinces, Southern Quezon, Panay Island and the rest of MIMAROPA. Residents of these areas must undertake precautionary measures against possible flooding and landslides and coordinate with their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
• Sea travel is risky over the areas under TCWS #1 and the seaboards of Northern Luzon and Southern Luzon, eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, eastern and western seaboards of Visayas, and eastern seaboard of Mindanao due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon and TD #AgatonPH.
Location of eye/center At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression #AgatonPH was estimated based on all available data at 40 km South of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan (09.4°N, 118.7°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of up to 55 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 75 kph.
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West at 30 kph.
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): 165 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(12.0°N, 113.0°E)
• 48 Hour(Thursday evening):800 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(15.0°N, 108.0°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS#1 (30-60 kph Expected in 36 hours)
Palawan
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

No automatic alt text available.
No automatic alt text available.

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Jan, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression ONE is currently located near 9.4 N 118.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). ONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201801w201801w_0

Other

wp201801_5day TD1

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

18010221

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 978 HPA
AT 39N 156E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 1200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 40N 162E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 42N 168E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 42N 163E
MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 44N 141E SEA OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 24N 117E 17N 122E 14N 114E 22N 111E 24N 117E.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 09.4N 119.4E SULU SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 09.6N 116.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 10.4N 112.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 160E 49N 180E
37N 180E 39N 165E 45N 160E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 27N 163E EAST 25 KT.
LOW 984 HPA AT 58N 179W WNW 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 27N 163E TO 27N 167E 26N 173E.
COLD FRONT FROM 27N 163E TO 23N 158E 20N 151E.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 42N 163E TO 41N 167E 39N 168E.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 168E TO 37N 172E 33N 176E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 168E TO 34N 167E 29N 163E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 021200

TTT WARNING 6

AT 1200 02 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMICIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMICIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 031200 ONE TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 041200 ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Vietnam: Typhoon Tembin/ Vinta 33W 241200Z nr 8.3N 112.1E, moving W 13kt 975hPa (JMA) – Updated 24 Dec 2017 1438z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Tembin (33W)

(Vinta in Philippines)

TYPHOON “VINTA” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR). – PAGASA

logo

1727-003

TY 1727 (Tembin)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 24 December 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 24 December>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N8°20′ (8.3°)
E112°05′ (112.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°25′ (8.4°)
E109°25′ (109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N8°30′ (8.5°)
E106°55′ (106.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 180 km (95 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N9°25′ (9.4°)
E102°55′ (102.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #29-FINAL
FOR:Typhoon Vinta
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

ISSUED AT:10:30 AM, 24 December 2017

TYPHOON “VINTA” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

  • Scattered to widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rains will still prevail over Palawan, especially over the southern section. Residents of these areas must take appropriate actions against flooding and landslides, coordinate with their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates.
  • Sea travel remains risky over the western seaboard of Palawan due to the Typhoon.

 

 

PAGASA Track Satellite Image

 

Location of eye/center: At 9:30 AM today, the eye of Typhoon “VINTA” was located based on all available data at 290 km South of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR) (08.4 °N, 114.2 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 145 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 585 km West Southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan(8.7°N, 109.3°E)

 

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated7

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Dec, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon TEMBIN is currently located near 8.3 N 113.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). TEMBIN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TEMBIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bac Lieu (9.3 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cambodia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Can Tho (10.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Nam Can (8.8 N, 105.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Duong Dong (10.2 N, 104.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Kompong Som (10.6 N, 103.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phnom Penh (11.6 N, 104.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Kracheh (12.5 N, 106.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Kas Kong (11.3 N, 103.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201733w3201733w_03

 

Other

wp201733_5day3

(Above image: @wunderground)

Tropical Storm Tembin: Philippines rescuers seek victims

99351631_mediaitem99351630

The Salvador district is among those badly affected – REUTERS

“Rescuers are searching for victims of a tropical storm in the southern Philippines which has killed some 200 people in mudslides and flash floods.

Rescue teams have yet to reach some of the affected areas on Mindanao island.

About 150 people are still missing after Storm Tembin swept through the region, with another 70,000 displaced from their homes.

The rescue effort is being hampered by continuing heavy rain, power cuts and blocked roads.

In the early hours of Sunday, Tembin, known as Vinta in the Philippines, was south of the Spratly Islands, heading towards southern Vietnam. It had gathered strength, with maximum winds of 120km/h (75 mph).

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he was saddened by the loss of life, adding that the UN was ready to help.

There are fears the death toll will rise further.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is due to visit communities affected by Storm Tembin on Sunday.

Police said 135 people had been killed and 72 were missing in northern Mindanao. Forty-seven were killed and 72 missing in the Zamboanga peninsula. In Lanao del Sur, another 18 died.

Between 40,000 and 60,000 people are reported to be housed in evacuation centres.

The mountain village of Dalama was one of the worst affected places. Houses were buried in mud or engulfed in floodwaters.

“The flood was already close and the people were not able to get out from their homes,” survivor Armando Sangcopan told local TV.

The bodies of eight children were extracted from thick mud in the town of Salvador in Lanao del Norte, the Inquirer reports.

“It’s very painful to see the dead bodies of children, whom we also considered to be our own,” the principal, Ricardo Abalo, told the paper.

Aid workers said people had not heeded warnings to evacuate before Tembin arrived, either because they believed the storm would not be severe or they had nowhere else to go.

Risks of disease

Many victims were swept away from low-lying residential areas when the flash floods and landslides struck.

More deaths were reported in Bukidnon, Iligan and Misamis Occidental.

Andrew Morris, from the UN children’s agency Unicef in Mindanao, said in some areas there were big risks of disease, particularly for children, and restoring clean water supplies would be a priority.

“Lanao del Sur province is the poorest in the Philippines, and in the past seven months there have been around 350,000 people displaced in that province because of fighting,” he told the BBC, referring to battles between government forces and Islamist militants in Marawi.

Meanwhile, Richard Gordon, of the Philippines Red Cross, told the BBC: “We have already provided water and hot food.

“And we’re going to be distributing non-food items – certainly blankets, mosquito nets and certainly hygiene kits for those who are in evacuation centres so that we can alleviate the suffering of many of the folks there.

A week ago, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak hit the central Philippines, killing dozens.

The region is still recovering from Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 5,000 people and affected millions in 2013.” – BBC News

99347615_philippinesmindanao4641217

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17122415

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP22 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1727 TEMBIN (1727) 975 HPA
AT 08.3N 112.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 08.4N 109.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 08.5N 106.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 09.4N 102.9E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Philippines

As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone within Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnam: Tropical Storm KAI-TAK/ URDUJA (32W) 201800Z nr 6.9N 110.7E, moving W 12kt 998hPa (JMA) – Updated 20 Dec 2017 2015z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (32W)

URDUJA in Philippines

TROPICAL STORM “URDUJA” OUTSIDE PAR – PAGASA

MAXIMUMSIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

 

logo

1726-001

TS 1726 (Kai-tak)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 20 December 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 20 December>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N6°55′ (6.9°)
E110°40′ (110.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 280 km (150 NM)
SE 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 21 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N6°30′ (6.5°)
E109°10′ (109.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 21 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N6°05′ (6.1°)
E107°30′ (107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 22 December>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N4°55′ (4.9°)
E104°35′ (104.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated3

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 32W (Kai-tak) Warning #27
Issued at 20/1500Z

 

wp3217232w_201200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 6.9N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.9N 111.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 6.2N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 5.9N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 5.5N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 5.2N 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 6.7N 111.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

PAGASA-DOST

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Dec, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK is currently located near 6.9 N 111.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). KAI-TAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Bac Lieu (9.3 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Nam Can (8.8 N, 105.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Can Tho (10.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201732w2201732w_02

Other

wp201732_5day1

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17122021

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 201800

WTJP21 RJTD 201800
WARNING 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1726 KAI-TAK (1726) 998 HPA
AT 06.9N 110.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 06.5N 109.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 06.1N 107.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 04.9N 104.6E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Arabian Sea: Tropical Cyclone OCKHI (03B) 041500Z position nr 15.7N 69.1E, moving NNE 06kt (JTWC) – Updated 04 Dec 2017 2020z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone OCKHI (03B)

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) Warning #12
Issued at 02/1500Z

io03171

03b_041200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 15.4N 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 68.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 16.8N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 18.7N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 20.9N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 22.5N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1367 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH 37 AND 91
GHZ SSMIS IMAGES FROM 041122Z, SHOWING THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
STRUGGLING TO KEEP TOGETHER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND DISPLACED NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WHICH IS ON CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM DEMS AND PGTW, COMBINED
WITH A 041052Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AS THE ADVANCING
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS A RESULT. A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS STEERING TC 03B ON A COURSE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND IN
COMBINATION WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WILL SEVERELY WEAKEN TC
03B WHILE OVER OPEN WATER. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH JUST AFTER TAU 36, WITH THE REMNANT LOW
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT AROUND TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH ONLY
MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION. OVERALL THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-fcst

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 4 Dec, 2017 12:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI is currently located near 15.4 N 68.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). OCKHI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OCKHI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Diu (20.7 N, 71.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201703b1

201703b_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

TC OCKHI WUND

(Above image: @wunderground)

OTHER

Cyclone Ockhi, which claimed 13 lives in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, has now moved beyond Lakshadweep, the weather department said bringing huge relief to the people of the rain-battered states.

However, many fishermen are still missing and warships have been deployed to comb the southeastern coast for fishing boats missing in wild seas.

Ockhi is now expected to travel north towards Mumbai and Gujarat in the next 48 hours, according to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Director S Sudevan in Thiruvananthapuram, though it is likely to lose intensity, reported news agency Reuters.

As many as 531 fishermen, stranded in the choppy waters off the Kerala and the Lakshadweep coasts due to Cyclone Ockhi, have been rescued, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said today. So far 393 people from Kerala have been rescued, Mr Vijayan said, as the state government announced a compensation of Rs. 10 lakh to the family of those who died in the storm.

Rescue operations are still on with Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard’s coordinated efforts in Thiruvananthapuram-Kollam coastal area. In Tamil Nadu, 60 fishermen are still missing and the Navy has been called in for their rescue
The Tamil Nadu government has also requested the centre to deploy helicopters of the Navy and the Coast Guard for the search and rescue efforts.” – NDTV (Reported by Sneha Mary Koshy, Edited by Soumyajit Majumder | Updated: December 02, 2017 20:26 IST)

FULL STORY

https://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/as-cyclone-ockhi-wanes-kanyakumari-remains-in-knee-deep-water-powerless-1782641

MARITIME/SHIPPING

3Dasiasec_ir1 imd 04

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 041800

WTIN01 DEMS 041800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 04/1800 UTC 04 DECEMBER 2017.

PART-I
THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OCKHI OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 19 KMPH
DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 2030 HRS IST OF 04 TH
DECEMBER, 2017 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE
16.1º N AND LONGITUDE 69.5º E, ABOUT 660 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SURAT AND 470 KM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY
AND CROSS SOUTH GUJARAT AND ADJOINING NORTH MAHARASHTRA
COASTS NEAR SURAT AS A DEEP DEPRESSION BY THE NIGHT OF
TOMORROW, THE 5 TH DECEMBER 2017. (.)
PART:-II
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND EQUATORIAL INDIAN
OCEAN WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEEP DEPRESSION DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
48 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU¬SOUTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS DURING NEXT 3 DAYS (.)
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF
TAMILNADU¬SRI LANKA COASTS EXTENDING UPTO 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL PERSISTS (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 75 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:N/NW-
LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 15/25 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
2)REST AREA: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 63 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 63 DEG E 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA :8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1-4 MTR(.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 55 DEG E:NE/N-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE
E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 66 DEG E:SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E:6-4 NM(.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:N/NW-LY 10/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 60/70
KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E AND S OF 22 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)E OF 65 DEG E:12-15 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 2-5 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 65 DEG E N/NE-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N:WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N:3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)E OF 65 DEG E 5-6 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 3-4 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT :3-4 MTR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-4-5 MTR(.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS BEC E/NE-LY 10/25
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 15 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N 3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA :10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:0.5-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)NE-LY 10/20 KTS BEC E/NE-LY 15/25
KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N :3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-4 MTR(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Indonesia/ Australia: Tropical Cyclone Dahlia 01S 01/1800Z nr 10.8S 110.1E, slow moving (TCWC Perth) – Updated 01 Dec 2017 1935z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia 01S

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET – JTWC

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia

Issued at 2:35 am AWST Saturday 2 December 2017. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

IDW60284 D AUS

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia continues to develop over open waters well east of Christmas Island.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dahlia at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 10.8 degrees South, 110.1 degrees East , 485 kilometres east of Christmas Island and 1310 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: slow moving .

Hazards:

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia is located over open waters well east of Christmas Island. The cyclone is forecast to move to the south over the weekend and may intensify further, however it is then expected to weaken on Monday well off the northwest WA coast. The cyclone is expected to remain over open waters and is unlikely to directly impact the WA coast before weakening below cyclone intensity.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am December 2 2 10.8S 110.1E 85
+6hr 8 am December 2 3 11.3S 110.1E 80
+12hr 2 pm December 2 3 11.8S 110.0E 100
+18hr 8 pm December 2 3 12.2S 109.9E 125
+24hr 2 am December 3 3 12.8S 109.8E 145
+36hr 2 pm December 3 2 14.3S 109.6E 185
+48hr 2 am December 4 1 16.0S 109.4E 220
+60hr 2 pm December 4 1 17.7S 109.4E 255
+72hr 2 am December 5 1 18.9S 110.1E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Saturday

IDW24010
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:37 am WST on Saturday 2 December 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia (Category 2) was located at 2:00 am AWST near 10.8S
110.1E, that is 485 km east of Christmas Island and slow moving.
Tropical Cyclone Dahlia is located over open waters well east of Christmas
Island. The cyclone is forecast to move to the south over the weekend and may
intensify further, however it is then expected to weaken on Monday well off the
northwest WA coast. The cyclone is expected to remain over open waters and is
unlikely to directly impact the WA coast before weakening below cyclone
intensity.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Dahlia) Warning #07
Issued at 01/1500Z  

sh0118

01s_011200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
011200Z — NEAR 10.5S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 110.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 11.3S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 12.0S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 13.2S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 15.0S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 18.2S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 20.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 21.0S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 011119Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS)FROM KNES AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 45 KNOTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND
BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM (28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE (25 DEGREES CELSIUS)
AFTER TAU 72. TC 01S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWARD TURN. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100, 020300Z, 020900, AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Dec, 2017 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DAHLIA is currently located near 9.7 S 109.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). DAHLIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Indonesia
        probability for TS is 45% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cilacap (7.7 S, 109.0 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201701s

201701s_0

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA10 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_PERTH / 1803 

WTAU06 APRF 011803
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HPA.
WINDS TO 70 KNOTS.

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO TCWCWA?BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO
+61892632261
OR SATELLITE USING SAC1241 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION BURUM 312 (OR
212 AS
APPROPRIATE) VIA PERTH.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0100 UTC 02 DECEMBER 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

//END PART 02/02//

METAREA10 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_NORTHERN / 1803

IDW23200
40:3:2:24:11S110E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1803UTC 1 DECEMBER 2017

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Dahlia was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude ten decimal eight south (10.8S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal one east (110.1E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 985 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 70 knots by 1800 UTC 02
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre after 0000 UTC 02
December, with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with high seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

 

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 02 December: Within 55 nautical miles of 11.8 south 110.0 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots.
At 1800 UTC 02 December: Within 80 nautical miles of 12.8 south 109.8 east
Central pressure 975 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 02 December 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Gaia Pope: The search for a missing Dorset teenager continues on its 6th day – Published 13 Nov 2017 1853z (GMT/UTC)

“Gaia Pope was last seen on Tuesday afternoon in Swanage.

Gaia Pope Misper

Hundreds of residents have joined police and coastguards since her disappearance to search for the 19-year-old from #LangtonMatravers who has severe epilepsy.

Police have released CCTV footage showing what is believed to be the missing teenager shortly before she vanished.

The video shows Gaia running past a house in Morrison Road, Swanage, at 15:40 GMT on Tuesday. ”

CCTV VIDEO (link)

“Gaia Pope was last seen on Tuesday afternoon in Swanage.

Hundreds of residents have joined #police and #coastguards since her disappearance to search for the 19-year-old from #LangtonMatravers who has severe #epilepsy.

Police have released CCTV footage showing what is believed to be the missing teenager shortly before she vanished.

The video shows Gaia running past a house in Morrison Road, Swanage, at 15:40 GMT on Tuesday. ”

– BBC News

Everything we know so far about the disappearance of Gaia Pope – SomersetLive

“Police and searchers in Dorset are continuing their efforts to find the missing 19-year-old Gaia Pope.

Gaia, who has severe epilepsy has not been seen since Tuesday November 7.

The appeal to find her, which has attracted attention from celebrities such as Russell Brand has also involved volunteers who have scoured areas across Swanage and the rest of Dorset.

Who is she?

19-year-old Gaia Pope is from Langton Matravers and has severe epilepsy according to her parents.

Where was she last seen?

The last reported sighting of the teen was at an address in Manor Gardens on Morrison Road in Swanage. She was last seen their around 3.45pm on Tuesday November 7.

CCTV released by Dorset Police taken from a security camera on a home in Swanage, shows her running along a pavement opposite.

What was she wearing?

She was said to be wearing a red checked shirt with white buttons, grey and white woven leggings and white trainers.

How is the search for her going?

The celebrity Russell Brand recently urged his social media followers to help with the search, tweeting the appeal for her.

Russell-Brand-Gaia-Pope

Russell Brand has urged his social media followers to join search for Gaia (Image: Getty/Gaia Pope)

Search efforts have been ongoing in the Swanage area up to Langton Matravers, with support from the coastguard, NPAS helicopter and DorSAR.

Investigations have also involved CCTV and house-to-house enquiries as well as vehicle stop checks.

In a statement, Dorset Police said:

“Our search efforts have been mainly concentrated in the Swanage area, where we have searched numerous premises, carried out a large number of house-to-house enquiries, used the police dogs and the helicopter for assistance in searching the harder to reach areas and every avenue of opportunity is being investigated.

“I want to take this opportunity to also thank the dedicated volunteers that have all worked tirelessly to search the streets of Swanage, produce leaflets and conduct extensive house to house enquiries to help find Gaia.

“Dorset Police has received numerous leads that have been generated from the volunteer enquiries, which have all been followed up by police officers.

Investigations have also involved CCTV and house-to-house enquiries as well as vehicle stop checks.

In a statement, Dorset Police said:

“Our search efforts have been mainly concentrated in the Swanage area, where we have searched numerous premises, carried out a large number of house-to-house enquiries, used the police dogs and the helicopter for assistance in searching the harder to reach areas and every avenue of opportunity is being investigated.

“I want to take this opportunity to also thank the dedicated volunteers that have all worked tirelessly to search the streets of Swanage, produce leaflets and conduct extensive house to house enquiries to help find Gaia.

“Dorset Police has received numerous leads that have been generated from the volunteer enquiries, which have all been followed up by police officers

“Although the door-to-door enquiries have nearly been completed in Swanage, I would still like to remind residents to remain vigilant when you are out walking in the countryside, to continue to regularly check your gardens and outbuildings and to support the find Gaia team who are working out of the Purbeck Gazette office in Swanage.

“If you wish to help the family then please use social media to share the positive message to help find Gaia and report any sightings or information to Dorset Police on 101 or 999 in an emergency.” from .somersetlive.co.uk

Anyone with information or knowledge as to Gaia’s whereabouts is asked to contact Dorset Police at http://www.dorset.police.uk, via email 101@dorset.pnn.police.uk or by calling 101, quoting incident number 9:179. Alternatively contact Crimestoppers anonymously on 0800 555 111 or via http://www.crimestoppers-uk.org.

Vietnam/ South China Sea: Tropical Storm Haikui 111200Z 17.8N 115.6E, moving W Slow 998 hPa (JMA) – Updated 11 Nov 2017 1515z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Haikui 30W

( TS Salome in Philippines)

logo

1724-002

TS 1724 (Haikui)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 11 November 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 11 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N17°50′ (17.8°)
E115°35′ (115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 220 km (120 NM)
SE 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N17°30′ (17.5°)
E112°30′ (112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°00′ (16.0°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°50′ (14.8°)
E108°00′ (108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slow
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

Philippines

PAGASA-DOST

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #12-FINAL
FOR:Tropical Storm Salome
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

ISSUED AT:5:00 AM, 11 November 2017 (PH Time)

TROPICAL STORM “SALOME” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

  • Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 200 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.
PAGASA Track Satellite Image
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “SALOME” was estimated based on all available data at 385 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.6 °N, 116.8 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 20 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 775 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.9°N, 113.1°E)
  • 48 Hour(Monday morning):820 km North Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.6°N, 110.8°E)
  • 72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 915 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.0°N, 108.3°E)
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final warning for this weather disturbance.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201730w2201730w_02

Other

wp201730_5day2

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17111121

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 111200

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1724 HAIKUI (1724) 998 HPA
AT 17.8N 115.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 17.5N 112.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 16.0N 109.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 14.8N 108.0E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST JAPAN November 11 2017 – 14:28:37 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST HONG KONG CHINA November 11 2017 – 14:15:59 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST CHINA November 11 2017 – 14:05:54 UTC

 

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 100600

TTT GALE WARNING 7

AT 0600 10 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM {HAIKUI} (1724) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FIVE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110600 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AT 120600 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 130600 ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Canada/ Ireland/ Atlantic Ocean: Post Tropical Storm RINA 09/1500Z nr 47.0N 45.5W, moving NE 35kt 998mb NHC FL – Updated 09 Nov 2017 2130z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone RINA


National Hurricane Center (FL)

 

rb_lalo-animated7

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
1500 UTC THU NOV 09 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….150NE 240SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 39.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 240SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 180SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.0N 45.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

 

NNNN

 

favicon-mobileCanadian Hurricane Centre (CHC)

track1

Canada Weather Warnings

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Nov, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm RINA is currently located near 44.5 N 47.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). RINA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

201719n2

201719n_02

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1446

WTNT24 KNHC 091446
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
1500 UTC THU NOV 09 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….150NE 240SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 39.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 240SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 180SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.0N 45.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

 

=============================================================================

IRELAND

Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Small Craft Warning
West to southwest winds, later veering west to northwest, will reach force 6 on all Irish coasts this evening and tonight.

Issued:
Thursday 09 November 2017 17:00

United Kingdom

UKMET HIGH SEAS FORECAST: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast_and_sea/high_seas#area-6

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Lifeboat/ Water rescue charities receive £1 million to boost search and rescue efforts – Published 08 Nov 2017 2017z (GMT/UTC)

Water rescue charities receive funding for rescue equipment to keep UK rivers and seas safe.

s300_lifeboat

– MCA 7 Nov 2017

Andaman Islands/ Thailand/ Myanmar/ India: Tropical Depression 29W 071500Z nr 11.3N 99.9E, moving NNW 07 kt (JTWC) – Updated 07 Nov 2017 1925z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression TWENTYNINE 29W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT  071200Z IS 6 FEET. – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 29W (Twentynine) Warning #06
Issued at 07/1500Z

wp29171

29w_071200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071200Z — NEAR 11.2N 100.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 100.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 11.7N 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 12.4N 96.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 12.9N 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 13.4N 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 14.3N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 99.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTH OF BANGK0K, THAILAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z./
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated4

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 Nov, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression TWENTYNINE is currently located near 8.3 N 102.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 25kts (29 mph). TWENTYNINE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chumphon (10.5 N, 99.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Prachuap Khiri Khan (11.8 N, 99.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
    Ranong (10.0 N, 98.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201729w

201729w_0

NCHMF VIETNAM

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING
TC TRACKS
VN Track 29w 07
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Tuesday, November 07, 2017 10.9 100.1 TD 50 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Wednesday, November 08, 2017 12.7 96.3 TD 56 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:30 AM wednesday, November 07, 2017
Satellite Imagery

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17110721
METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1800 

FQIN01 DEMS 071800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 07 NOVEMBERBER 2017.

PART-I: NO STORM WARNING
PART:-II
THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL FROM COMORIN AREA TO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP AREA PERSISTS.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH KERALA COAST EXTENDING UPTO 3.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER MALAY PENINSULA AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA. WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 65 DEG E SW-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N(.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E :NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N :4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG E 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E :NNW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 5 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 5 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO 15 DEG N AND
W OF 70 DEG E:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 65 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 63 DEG E (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG N :NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N(.)
4)N OF 20 DEG N ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :4-3 NM(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E :6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N:ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N : NNE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 12 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 18 DEG N :6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE E
OF 82 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N:W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N:NNW-LY 05/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/20 KTS TO THE E OF 83 DEG E AND S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 85 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 85 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NNE-LY 10/25 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/15 TO THE S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1-4 MTR(.)
———————————————
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200 

WWCI50 BABJ 071200
1:31:11:01:00
BT
SECURITE=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC NOV.07 2017=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC NOV.07=
FCST VALID 1200UTC NOV.08=
WARNNING=
NIL=
SUMMARY=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER SOUTHWESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
TAIWAN STRAIT AND NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
AND BOHAI
STRAIT AND WESTERN PART OF YELLOW SEA AND WESTERN
PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND BEIBU GULF AND ANDAMAN
SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND SEA EAST OF
SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT
AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
SUNNY VIS GOOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD SUNNY VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD SUNNY VIS GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD OVERCAST BECMG SUNNY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG SUNNY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO ROUGH MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR
TO MOD=
TAIWAN STRAIT
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S BACK NE
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
E WINDS BACK NE 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
BEIBU GULF
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
E WINDS BACK NE 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE ROUGH LIGHT
RAIN VIS MOD TO VERY=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
SW WINDS VEER N 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
KOREA STRAIT
SW WINDS VEER NW 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG CLOUDY VIS MOD TO
GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO VERY=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
E WINDS BACK NE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT
RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH MOD RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO VERY=
SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA
NE WINDS BACK W 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S VEER SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER W WINDS
08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD
RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=
SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE
NW WINDS VEER NE 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD
RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
NE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD TO GOOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
E WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S VEER SE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD
MOD RAIN VIS POOR TO MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnam /Cambobia /Thailand /West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm DAMREY 28W 022100Z 13.0N 114.4E, moving W 11 kt (JMA) – Updated 02 Nov 2017 2230z (GMT/UTC)

 Severe Tropical Storm DAMREY 28W

(RAMIL in PH)

Damrey expected to become a Typhoon equal to a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale prior to landfall in Vietnam

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

logo

1723-001

STS 1723 (Damrey)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 2 November 2017

 <Analysis at 21 UTC, 2 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°00′ (13.0°)
E114°25′ (114.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°30′ (12.5°)
E112°00′ (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°25′ (12.4°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N12°35′ (12.6°)
E105°10′ (105.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated1

NCHMF VIETNAM

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

1 Friday, November 03, 2017 12.9 114.5 STS 93 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

1 Saturday, November 04, 2017 12.2 110.3 TY 120 km/hour
1 Sunday, November 05, 2017 12.1 105.3 TD 46 km/hour
13 Sunday, November 05, 2017 12.0 103.1 Low 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 AM Friday, November 03, 2017
Satellite Imagery

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 28W (Damrey) Warning #05
Issued at 02/2100Z

wp28171

28w_021800sair

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021800Z — NEAR 12.7N 114.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 114.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 12.4N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 12.1N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 12.0N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 12.0N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 11.5N 100.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 113.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Nov, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DAMREY is currently located near 12.7 N 114.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). DAMREY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Kon Tum (14.3 N, 108.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kracheh (12.5 N, 106.0 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Phnom Penh (11.6 N, 104.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Siemreab (13.4 N, 103.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201728w1201728w_01

Other

damrey doc

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17110303

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 022100

WTJP31 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1723 DAMREY (1723) 985 HPA
AT 13.0N 114.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 12.5N 112.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 12.4N 109.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Saola 27W 291400Z nr 29.4N 130.2E, moving NE 55kt JMA – Updated 29 Oct 2017 1606z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Saola 27W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

logo

JMA is the lead agency in this area

1722-002

998

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

STS 1722 (Saola)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 29 October 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 29 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°30′ (36.5°)
E143°00′ (143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 100 km/h (55 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 170 km (90 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 500 km (270 NM)
NW 390 km (210 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 29 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N37°30′ (37.5°)
E144°25′ (144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 100 km/h (55 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 170 km (90 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 500 km (270 NM)
NW 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°55′ (44.9°)
E149°00′ (149.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 110 km/h (60 kt)
Central pressure 952 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area SE 300 km (160 NM)
NW 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N49°10′ (49.2°)
E153°05′ (153.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area SE 480 km (260 NM)
NW 310 km (170 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated27

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 27W (Saola) Warning #40 Final Warning
Issued at 29/1500Z

wp27174

 

27w_291200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 34.4N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 065 DEGREES AT 42 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.4N 140.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 40.1N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 46 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 47.2N 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 142.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
42 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 27W IS ASSESSED AS AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BUT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STRONG-GALE
TO STORM-FORCE WINDS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28
FEET.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SAOLA is currently located near 34.4 N 140.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). SAOLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Petropavloski-Kamchatskiy (53.2 N, 158.7 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201727w4201727w_04

 

Other

 

wp201727wp201727_sat4

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17102921

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 291200

WTJP21 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1722 SAOLA (1722) 985 HPA
AT 34.8N 141.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 45 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 44.9N 149.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
952 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 49.2N 153.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 291200

WWJP25 RJTD 291200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 40N 144E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 60N 149E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 60N 149E TO 59N 154E 57N 154E.
WARM FRONT FROM 57N 154E TO 55N 156E 52N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 57N 154E TO 55N 150E 48N 146E 42N 139E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN WESTERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
YELLOW SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST
CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 27N 120E 20N 125E 17N 120E 18N 109E 21N 110E 27N
120E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 55N 175E 55N 180E 33N 180E 34N 175E 55N 175E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 42N 141E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 168E 40N 163E 37N 150E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 06N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 138E NNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 40N 164E EAST 20 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 142E TO 36N 146E 32N 149E.
COLD FRONT FROM 31N 140E TO 28N 138E 26N 134E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1722 SAOLA (1722) 985 HPA AT 34.8N 141.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Cuba/ Bahamas/ US (FL): Tropical Storm Philippe 282100Z near 23.0N 82.6W, moving N ~24.8kt NHC – Published 28 Oct 2017 2157z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Philippe

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE…
…HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA…NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

National Hurricane Center FL

205806_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

205806_earliest_reasonable_toa_34205806wpcqpf_sm

000
WTNT33 KNHC 282035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE…
…HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Philippe is moving
toward the north near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast
by early Sunday morning. A faster motion toward the northeast is
expected on Sunday and continuing into Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move off of the northern coast
of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida this evening, and move
across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A wind gust of 37
mph (59 km/h) was recently reported at Key West International
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across portions
of South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 28 Oct, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE is currently located near 23.0 N 82.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). PHILIPPE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cuba
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the United States
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    the Bahamas
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Canada
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nassau (25.1 N, 77.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201718n201718n_0

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm34

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2035

WTNT23 KNHC 282035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017
2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD… LA HABANA… CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA… MATANZAS… CIENFUEGOS… AND VILLA CLARA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 82.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.5N 75.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 36.6N 70.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 82.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

El Salvador/ Guatemala: Tropical Storm Selma 20E 271800Z near 11.4N 89.5W, moving NNW ~3.7kt NHC – Published 27 Oct 2017 1955Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Selma 20E

Center of Selma will approach the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Entire coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 9 FEET – JTWC

National Hurricane Center FL

173716_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

173716_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 271736
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Selma Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

…SELMA TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD…

 

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…11.4N 89.5W
ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Entire coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Selma was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 89.5 West. Selma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and the
cyclone is expected to turn toward the north by early Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Selma will approach the coast
of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast before Selma reaches the
coast of Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, southern
Honduras and far western Nicaragua over the next couple of days.
Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in El Salvador
and southern Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early Saturday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Selma are forecast to affect portions
of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala
later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20E (Selma) Warning #02
Issued at 27/1600Z

ep2017

20e_271200sair

WTPN31 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (SELMA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 10.8N 89.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 89.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 11.8N 89.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 13.0N 90.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 14.2N 89.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 89.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 20E (SELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 2015 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 27 Oct, 2017 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SELMA is currently located near 11.1 N 89.5 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). SELMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    El Salvador
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720e201720e_0

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1437

WTPZ25 KNHC 271437 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM SELMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017
1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SELMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 89.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 11.8N 89.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Okinawa/ Japan/ South Korea/ Russia/ West Pacific: SUPER TYPHOON LAN 25W 211500Z position nr 24.7N 132.9E, moving NNE 16kt (JTWC) – Updated 21 Oct 2017 1612z (GMT/UTC)

SUPER TYPHOON LAN (25W)

(=CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 25W (Lan) Warning #25
Issued at 21/1500Z

wp25174

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 23.8N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 132.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 27.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
415 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 31.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
430 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 36.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 400 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
420 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 39 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 42.0N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
490 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 132.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

logo

1721-004

993

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1721 (Lan)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 21 October 2017

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 21 October>
Scale Very large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E132°55′ (132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 1100 km (600 NM)
E 950 km (500 NM)
<Estimate for 16 UTC, 21 October>
Scale Very large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E133°00′ (133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 1100 km (600 NM)
E 950 km (500 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area SE 310 km (170 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E133°55′ (133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N30°40′ (30.7°)
E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°55′ (32.9°)
E136°35′ (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

NOAA

rb_lalo-animated22

TROPICAL STORM (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at21 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon LAN is currently located near 23.8 N 132.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). LAN is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201725w4201725w_04

Other

 

wp201725_5day6

wp201725_sat3

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo17102121

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA
AT 24.5N 132.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 28.5N 133.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 32.9N 136.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 54N 138E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 138E TO 53N 141E 52N 142E.
WARM FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 144E 46N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 142E 44N 138E 41N 130E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 129E 30N 130E 28N 125E 20N 120E 23N 117E 26N
120E 32N 122E 35N 129E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 11.6N 148.3E MARIANAS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 42N 143E 47N 152E 50N 155E 40N 155E 34N 180E 29N 180E 29N
170E 29N 155E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 47N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 130E TO 32N 134E 34N 140E 36N 146E 35N 152E
34N 157E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA AT 23.8N 132.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Storm Brian batters Ireland and United Kingdom – Updated 21 Oct 2017 1507z (GMT/UTC)

Storm Brian

⚠️ Ireland and United Kingdom beware!

resize_kxyyufnf8tquprb4avshdowe27mpvinc_980x590

web_sat_vis_irl

https://embed.windy.com/embed2.html?lat=53.015&lon=0.703&zoom=5&level=surface&overlay=wind&menu=&message=&marker=&forecast=12&calendar=now&location=coordinates&type=map&actualGrid=&metricWind=kt&metricTemp=%C2%B0C

High winds and flooding as Storm Brian hits Ireland

Storm Brian has resulted in flooding and surface water in areas of the country that were among the worst hit by Storm Ophelia earlier this week. 

Limerick city has been hit by flooding after the River Shannon overflowed.

Limerick City and Council Council has tweeted images of flooding in front of Sarsfield House along Arthur’s Quay and the road at O’Callaghan Strand was also flooded.

The council said there are no reports of houses being flooded.

Flooding in Limerick later receded as water levels in the Shannon fell after the morning high tide.

In Galway city, temporary flood defences erected close to the Spanish Arch landmark proved effective, though the waters came close to reaching some properties.

There have been reports of flooding on roads in other south and west coastal areas.

Motorists are urged to drive with care as there is a lot of surface water on roads in Cork city and county, while conditions are said to be treacherous on the Bailick Road in Midleton.

The Ballyderown to Ballyduff Road is closed in Kilworth due to flooding.

In Co Kilkenny, the Bleach road and surrounding area are flooded.

Fallen trees and localised flooding have also been reported in Co Waterford.

Local authorities in counties Cork, Galway, Kerry and Kilkenny are among those dealing with the latest flooding which is not as severe as earlier in the week and this morning’s high tide around the Cork coast did not result in any flooding as had been feared.

Some localised spot flooding and trees down in a few locations this morning. Please travel with extreme care if you’re out

bbc-blocks-dark “Storm Brian has hit the UK with gale-force winds and high seas – though the weather is not as bad as predicted.

Gusts of over 70mph were recorded on Saturday morning, with forecasters warning of the potential for flooding, power cuts and transport disruption.

Yellow strong wind warnings are still in place across much of Wales, south England and the Midlands.

There are seven flood warnings across England, urging “immediate action”.

Seven flood warnings have also been issued for Wales.” BBC News

There are 6 Flood Warnings in Scotland

“The storm comes after three people were killed and hundreds of thousands of people – mostly in the Irish Republic – were left without power after the remnants of Storm Ophelia battered the British Isles after weakening from its earlier hurricane force.

Strong winds and high seas reached the western coast of Ireland overnight.

Gusts have hit 80mph (130km/h) in the country, said Irish weather agency Met Éireann, and flooding has been reported in some areas as the water level of the River Shannon rose.

The agency issued an orange warning – its second most severe alert – in seven Irish counties and advised motorists to take care, as trees weakened by Storm Ophelia could fall. However, it said the gusts “won’t be anywhere near as strong” as the previous storm.

A race meeting at Fairyhouse has been cancelled and the Cliffs of Moher tourist attraction in County Clare has been closed.

In Wales, trains and ferries have been cancelled and seafront roads closed.

The strongest wind gust has been measured in Mumbles, to the west of Swansea, at 71mph.

Natural Resources Wales said the coastline was likely to be “extremely dangerous this weekend” – with the Met Office predicting gusts of 60mph (96km/h) to 70mph (112km/h).

Tenby RNLI said it had launched its lifeboat to help a person in difficulty at Skrinkle, while Porthcawl RNLI warned people to watch the storm waves on its live feed, after people were spotted taking photographs from the harbour wall.

Ceredigion council has also warned people to “keep away” from seafronts and “be careful” on low-lying land where coastal flooding is possible.

The Met Office’s chief forecaster, Dan Suri, said gusts inland could also reach between 45mph (72km/h) and 55mph (88km/h).

In addition to the flood warnings, the Environment Agency has issued more than 40 flood alerts – meaning flooding is possible – most of which are in the west and south-west of England.

Flood barriers have been put in place in areas including Fowey in Cornwall, but Frank Newell, from the Environment Agency, said the surge had been lower than forecast.

“In terms of impact, we’ve had spray overtopping quaysides, but we don’t have at the moment any reported property flooding,” he said.

Across the UK, National Rail warned the weather could affect train services, with emergency speed restrictions imposed on most of the routes in Wales.

In England, South Western Railway has put a temporary speed restriction in place in both Hampshire and Dorset, and confirmed a tree had blocked the line between Fareham and Southampton – though this has now been cleared.

Speed restrictions are also operating on the Gatwick Express, Southern Rail and Thameslink, with some reduced services to ease congestion.

The Environment Agency’s national flood duty manager, Ben Lukey, warned people against posing for photos during the hazardous conditions.

He said: “We urge people to stay safe along the coast and warn against putting yourself in unnecessary danger by taking ‘storm selfies’ or driving through flood water – just 30cm (11in) is enough to move your car.”” – BBC News

Ireland (ROI)

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Update: Northwesterly winds will continue to reach mean speeds of 65-80 km/h with gusts 110-130 km/h, mainly in coastal areas. Winds will ease to yellow warning level during this evening.

Issued:

Saturday 21 October 2017 13:41

Valid:

Saturday 21 October 2017 14:00 to Saturday 21 October 2017 21:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Heavy rain with accumulations of 30 to 50mm expected over the period

Issued:

Thursday 19 October 2017 19:00

Valid:

Friday 20 October 2017 09:00 to Saturday 21 October 2017 21:00

Explanation of new warning levels

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for Wales, the Midlands, South West, South East, North West and Eastern England

Updated 09:05 on Fri 20th

Valid from 04:00 on Sat 21st to 23:59 on Sat 21st

A spell of strong winds is expected. Western and southern coastal transport routes and communities are likely to be affected by large waves and spray, with potential for flooding of properties. Some transport disruption is likely across the whole warning area, with delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport. Short term loss of power and other services is also possible, as well as damage to trees.

A swathe of strong south or southwesterly winds reaching parts of Wales and southwest England will steadily transfer east and north during the morning. Later in the afternoon winds will gradually turn westerly and wind inland will start to slowly ease. Meanwhile, in western and southern coastal areas winds will start to slowly ease later in the evening. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected widely within the warning area with gusts of 60 to 70 mph along exposed southern and western coastal areas. These are expected to coincide with high tides, leading to locally dangerous conditions around coastal areas in western and southern parts of England and Wales.

Flood Warning

Issued by the Environment Agency or by SEPA in Scotland and Natural Resources Wales in Wales

About the Met Office Weather Warnings

The Met Office warns the public and emergency responders of severe or hazardous weather which has the potential to cause danger to life or widespread disruption through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.

The Met Office issues warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. These warnings are given a colour depending on a combination of the likelihood of the event happening and the impact the conditions may have.

For more information, see the Met Office Weather Warnings Guide.

About Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline – 0345 988 1188

Synoptic Charts

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Met Éireann Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning

Southwest gales or strong gales early this afternoon between Howth Head and Carnsore Pt and on the south Irish Sea.

Otherwise, West to northwest gales or strong gales today and for a time tonight on all Irish Coastal waters and on the Irish Sea, reaching storm force 10 at first between Carnsore Pt and Erris Head

Issued:

Saturday 21 October 2017 13:00

Explanation of new warning levels

METAREA1 / OFF_SHORE_WARNING / 210948

WOUK50 EGRR 210948
GALE WARNING SATURDAY 21 OCTOBER 0948GMT 64

FORTIES
SOUTHEASTERLY SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 DECREASING GALE FORCE 8
IMMINENT

BISCAY
GALE FORCE 8 VEERING NORTHWESTERLY SOON

FITZROY
SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND DECREASING
GALE FORCE 8 SOON

SOLE
SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 VEERING NORTHWESTERLY SOON AND
DECREASING GALE FORCE 8 LATER

LUNDY
WESTERLY STORM FORCE 10 DECREASING SEVERE GALE FORCE 9
SOON

IRISH SEA
SOUTHWESTERLY STORM FORCE 10, VEERING WESTERLY AND
DECREASING SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 IMMINENT

SHANNON ROCKALL
NORTHWESTERLY STORM FORCE 10 DECREASING SEVERE GALE FORCE
9 SOON

HEBRIDES
NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE 8 EXPECTED SOON
METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 210759

WONT54 EGRR 210759
SECURITE

STORM WARNING
AT 210000UTC, LOW 53 NORTH 12 WEST 964 EXPECTED 56 NORTH
01 EAST 986 BY 220000UTC. WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN SOLE UNTIL 211500UTC,
SHANNON UNTIL 211800UTC, AND ROCKALL UNTIL 212100UTC.
WINDS WILL ALSO REACH VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 AT TIMES IN
SHANNON UNTIL 211100UTC. LOW 40 NORTH 50 WEST 995
EXPECTED 53 NORTH 37 WEST 938 BY SAME TIME. WINDS WILL
REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITHIN 300
MILES OF THE LOW CENTRE AFTER 210900UTC. WINDS WILL REACH
HURRICANE FORCE 12 IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN
100 MILES OF THE LOW CENTRE BETWEEN 211000UTC AND
220000UTC
=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ireland/ UK/ North Atlantic: Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA 16/0300Z nr 49.2N 13.3W, moving N 38kt 969mb NHC FL – Updated 16 Oct 2017 0837z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA

(Ophelia= to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)


Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding (see details below) – NHC

⚠️ Ireland and United Kingdom BEWARE!

 

National Hurricane Center (FL)

145012_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

NB: This map (above) uses AST Atlantic Standard Time is 5 hours behind of British Summer Time

145012_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

NB: This map (above) uses AST Atlantic Standard Time is 5 hours behind of British Summer Time

rb_lalo-animated18

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

…OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB…28.62 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

National Weather Warnings

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Ireland

Latest Update
Storm Ophelia (Ex hurricane), situated over county Galway at 1500 today, is continuing to track northeastwards. It will bring further violent and destructive winds for a time, with gusts of 120 and 150 km/h. Some flooding expected also, due to heavy thundery downpours and storm surges in coastal areas.
There is a danger to life and property.

Winds will gradually abate from the south through this evening and tonight.

Issued:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:02

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 01:00

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

Monday 16 October 2017

AMBER WARNING of WIND

for Northern Ireland, SW Scotland, West Wales, Isle Of Man

Between 12:00 Mon 16th and 23:00 Mon 16th

Updated Mon 16th October at 09:58

A spell of very windy weather is expected today in association with ex-Ophelia. Longer journey times and cancellations are likely, as road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected as well as some bridge closures. There is a good chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. Flying debris is likely, such as tiles blown from roofs, as well as large waves around coastal districts with beach material being thrown onto coastal roads, sea fronts and properties. This leads to the potential for injuries and danger to life. This warning has been updated to extend it into parts of north and west Wales and into the extreme southwest of Scotland. The start time has been brought forward to 1200 to cater for southwest Wales but the impacts elsewhere are more likely later in the afternoon and into this evening.

Ex-Ophelia will move northwards across the west of Ireland today bringing some very strong winds to Northern Ireland along with parts of north and west Wales and the extreme southwest of Scotland. Gusts of 55-65 mph are expected widely with 80 mph gusts likely in places. A smaller area of very gusty winds is then likely to run across Northern Ireland from the west with 65-75 mph gusts possible for a short period of time in any one location. Winds are expected to peak across Northern Ireland and north and west Wales this afternoon including this evening’s busy travel period and to peak across southwest Scotland this evening.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND

for Central, Tayside & Fife Highlands & Eilean Siar North East England North West England Northern Ireland SW Scotland, Lothian Borders South West England Strathclyde Wales West Midlands Yorkshire & Humber

Between 10:00 Mon 16th and 23:55 Mon 16th October

Updated Mon 16th October at 10:33

Very strong winds are forecast to affect most western and some central parts of the UK during Monday. These strong winds are forecast in association with the northward track of ex-Ophelia across or near to the west of the British Isles. Southerly winds are most likely to gust between 55 and 65 mph across much of the warning area, especially in the west. There is also the potential for gusts of 80 mph in coastal areas, particularly on the eastern side of Northern Ireland as well as west Wales and the far southwest of Scotland. Please see separate amber warning. The very strong winds will probably extend to parts of northern England along with some southern and central parts of Scotland in the evening as winds veer more southwesterly across the whole warning area.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest and Northeast England.

Updated 13 October at 10:30

Valid from 00:05 on Tue 17th to 15:00 on Tue 17th

A spell of very windy weather is likely on Tuesday in association with ex-Ophelia. Road, rail, air and ferry services might be affected, with a slight chance of longer journeys times and some roads and bridges could close. There is a slight chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time slightly. The northward extent of the warning area across Scotland has been reduced but it has been extended slightly further south across Yorkshire.

 

00_ukmet_boden002

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 16 Oct, 2017 3:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Hurricane OPHELIA is currently located near 49.2 N 13.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). OPHELIA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OPHELIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Scotland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201717n6201717n_06201717n_2f

OPHELIA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 21 hours lead from 15/0300 UTC

Other

at201717_5day6at201717_sat6

Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 1 Hurricane Ophelia: a Rare and Damaging Storm for Ireland (link)

Channel Islands Doppler Radar

radar02

SOURCE: https://www.gov.je/weather/Pages/Radar.aspx

Windy dot com – Interactive, zoomable near real-time wind map (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 160251
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN… AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 70NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT…….150NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 400SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 13.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 60SE 70SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…110NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT…220NE 290SE 290SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 61.9N .1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.2N 13.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

=============================================================================

METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0759
WONT54 EGRR 160759
SECURITE

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, LOW 48 NORTH 14 WEST 963 EXPECTED 57 NORTH
07 WEST 980 BY 170000UTC. HURRICANE FORCE 12 WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN 150 AND
200 MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 161000UTC AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE
11 AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 300
MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 170200UTC. WINDS WILL ALSO
REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 AT TIMES
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 350 MILES OF THE
CENTRE UNTIL 161700UTC. LOW 54 NORTH 35 WEST 993 EXPECTED
61 NORTH 36 WEST 985 BY SAME TIME. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM
170700UTC

 

UKMET HIGH SEAS FORECAST: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast_and_sea/high_seas#area-6

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hainan/ China/ Macau/ Hong Kong: TYPHOON KHANUN 24W 151500Z nr 20.9N 110.7E, moving W 19kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Oct 2017 1455z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON KHANUN (24W)

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Hainan, Macau, Hong Kong, China & Vietnam beware!
Taiwan  Laos be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 24W (Khanun) Warning #14
Issued at 15/1500Z

wp24173

24w_150000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 21.0N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 111.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.8N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 20.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 18.9N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 17.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.4N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 110.7E.
TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1720-002

TY 1720 (Khanun)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 October 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°40′ (20.7°)
E111°50′ (111.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 440 km (240 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°20′ (20.3°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N19°25′ (19.4°)
E108°20′ (108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E107°50′ (107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement S 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 October>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°20′ (15.3°)
E107°30′ (107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement S Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

PAGASA-DOST

@dost_pagasa

Official Twitter Account of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 1

For: Typhoon “Khanun” (1720) (formerly “Odette”)
Issued at: 11:00 AM, 15 October 2017

At 10:00 AM today

Location of center: 795 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (20.1ºN, 114.4ºE) [OUTSIDE PAR]

Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 km/h near the center

Gustiness: up to 145 km/h

Forecast movement: West at 20 km/h

This tropical cyclone outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has no direct effect on any part of the country. Furthermore, this weather system is expected to make landfall over Southern China in the next 24 hours.

The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast to be issued at 4:00 PM today and at 4:00 AM tomorrow.

NOAA

 rb_lalo-animated16

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KHANUN is currently located near 21.0 N 111.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KHANUN is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KHANUN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Macau
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201724w3

201724w_03

MARITIME/SHIPPING

As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone within Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

 JMA logo

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1720 KHANUN (1720) 950 HPA
AT 20.7N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 20.3N 109.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 19.4N 108.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 16.9N 107.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 15.3N 107.5E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
17101521

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UN Human Rights office ‘deeply concerned’ over arrests of LGBT+ people in Azerbaijan, Egypt and Indonesia – Published 13 Oct 2017 1752z (GMT/UTC)

05-17-2016lgbtiflag

13 October 2017 – The United Nations human rights office on Friday expressed deep concern about a wave of arrests in Azerbaijan, Egypt and Indonesia of more than 180 people perceived to be lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT), many of whom have reportedly been mistreated by law enforcement officials.

“Arresting or detaining people based on their actual or perceived sexual orientation or gender identity is by definition arbitrary and violates international law,” including rights to privacy, non-discrimination and equality before the law, said Rupert Colville, spokesperson for the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), at a press briefing in Geneva.

In all three countries, authorities have alleged that those arrested were involved in sex work – although in almost all cases the accused have denied such allegations or indicated that they were coerced into confessing involvement, he added.

Mr. Colville said that Azerbaijan, Egypt and Indonesia should take immediate action to release anyone detained on the basis of their actual or perceived sexual orientation or gender identity, drop charges based on vaguely worded and discriminatory laws, and should repeal such laws in line with their legal obligations under international law and long-standing United Nations recommendations.

In Azerbaijan, more than 80 people presumed to be gay or transgender have been arrested in Baku since mid-September. In Egypt, more than 50 people have been arrested in recent weeks based on their assumed sexual orientation or gender identity. In Indonesia, more than 50 people were arrested at a sauna in Jakarta last Friday, based on their perceived sexual orientation. – UN

Follow @76Crimes  for more about the human toll of 76+ countries’ anti-gay laws and the struggle to repeal them.

United States: Tropical Depression NATE 08/1500Z nr 33.1N 87.3W, moving NNE 24mph/21kt 996mb NHC FL – Updated 08 Oct 2017 1800z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression NATE

HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER- NHC

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

National Hurricane Center (FL)

095409_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

095409_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

095409wpcqpf_sm1

 

rb_lalo-animated4

natloop_small

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

…HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…33.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39
km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Nate’s center will continue to move inland across the Deep
South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through
Monday.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate
is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the
the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through
this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the
northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from
the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and
northern Georgia into the western Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Jackson, MS Threats and Impacts 451 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA Threats and Impacts 722 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Atlanta, GA Threats and Impacts 1108 AM EDT Sun Oct 8
Tallahassee, FL Threats and Impacts 1117 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 /1017 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Huntsville, AL Threats and Impacts 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Birmingham, AL Threats and Impacts 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL Threats and Impacts 1029 AM CDT Sun Oct 8

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Oct, 2017 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression NATE is currently located near 33.1 N 87.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). NATE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201716n4

201716n_04

Other

 

at201716_5day4

at201716_sat4

 

 

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Southwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Nate May Hit Mexico and U.S. Gulf Coast as a Strengthening Hurricane

Strengthening Nate Heads into the Gulf and Toward a Saturday Night Landfall

Nate Sweeps Across U.S. Gulf Coast

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTNT21 KNHC 081448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Is La Niña on the way? – Reblogged from UK Met Office (05 Oct 2017)

During 2015 and 2016, the planet experienced one of the largest El Niño events in a century. El Niño (Spanish for the boy) is actually the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and climate scientists are now suggesting that this oscillation in tropical Pacific temperature is likely tipping towards its opposite cool phase, La […]

via Is La Niña on the way? — Official blog of the Met Office news team

Canada/ US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm MARIA 28/1500Z Update from NHC and others -Updated 28 Sep 2017 1717z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm MARIA

MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES – NHC

 

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

145714_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

rb_lalo-animated12

145714_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

 

natloop4

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

…MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.8N 69.3W
ABOUT 365 MI…585 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 400 MI…650 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Maria is
moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and the storm is
expected to accelerate eastward through tonight. A turn back toward
the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is
expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Maria will continue to
move away from the U.S. east coast and pass well to the south of
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east
coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

None

favicon-mobileCANADA

track

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

 

8:37 AM ADT Thursday 28 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

  • Avalon Peninsula Southeast

For Tropical Storm Maria.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 P.M. NDT.

Tropical Storm Maria currently east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. Will accelerate eastward over next few days and track well offshore of Atlantic Canada.

1. Summary of basic information at 9.30 A.M. NDT.

Location: 36.7 north 69.8 west.

about 560 kilometres southeast of New York City.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 km/hour.

Present movement: east-northeast at 13 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 982 mb.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Maria is expected to track well offshore and not have any direct weather impacts on Canadian land areas. Periods of heavy rain are expected over parts of Atlantic Canada today from an unrelated frontal system approaching from the northwest.

a. Wind.

No direct wind impacts are expected over land from Maria as the strongest winds from the storm are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Rain directly associated with Maria is expected to remain well offshore. However, moisture from the storm may feed into a cold front crossing Atlantic Canada today. This will enhance rainfall amounts along the front as it moves southward. The maximum level of enhancement may be over the southern Avalon Peninsula where a heavy rainfall warning is in effect. Once again, indirectly related to Maria.

c. Surge/waves.

There will be some ocean swells along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia today and tomorrow with waves breaking at times above 2 metres. Swells near 2 metres along the southern coast of Newfoundland will persist for a few days. These swells may build to 3-4 metres along the southern Avalon beginning tonight. Dangerous rip currents are also possible and the public should exercise caution until swells subside.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Maria could bring gales to the southern Grand Banks marine areas during its closest approach on Saturday. Seas (mostly swells) may build up to 5 metres over that area late Friday from a combination of both Maria and Hurricane Lee which is farther southeast.

Forecaster: Fogarty/March

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

 

 

 

Other

at201715

at201715_sat1

 

 

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 5 Hurricane Maria Hits Dominica

Maria Headed for Catastrophic Hit on Puerto Rico, St. Croix

Maria Slams St. Croix, Rips Across Puerto Rico

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico

More Havoc as Category 3 Maria Plows Northward

Maria’s Forecast Path Edging Closer to Outer Banks

Coastal North Carolina Prepares for Outer Effects of Hurricane Maria

A Brush From Maria: Winds and Storm Surge Rising in North Carolina

Maria Pulling Away From North Carolina; Lee a Major Hurricane

Maria and Lee On the Way Out; New Tropical Depression Possible near Florida

750px-caribbean_general_map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm33

WTNT25 KNHC 281448
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT……. 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT…….180NE 210SE 160SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 70.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 66.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT…160NE 200SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.4N 62.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 180SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.8N 56.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT…140NE 200SE 190SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.3N 48.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT…130NE 230SE 220SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.9N 31.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 69.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Note: See above for 27/1800Z NHC update

CANADA

canadamapwarningstatus_e

For more detail visit: http://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Isabela and Quebradillas – Guajataca Dam Failure Puerto Rico

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm JOSE 20/0900Z nr 38.4N 70.3W, moving NE ~7kt NHC FL – Updated 20 Sep 2017 1200z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JOSE

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

at201712_5day JOSE WUND 20

 

at201712_sat JOSE WUND 20

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

084730_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind JOSE 20

rb_lalo-animated JOSE GOES SAT.gif

 

084730_most_likely_toa_34 JOSE

084730WPCQPF_sm JOSE RAIN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.4N 70.3W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The tropical storm watch has been discontinued along the coast of
Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Jose
is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas. For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod…1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket…2 to 4 inches.

These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

 

Caribbean_general_map

Maria Threatens Leeward Islands; Jose’s Surf Will Batter Northeast U.S. Beaches

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 M 20 MARITIME
METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0840

WTNT22 KNHC 200840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE COAST OF
LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH… INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA’S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.1N 69.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.3W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…150NE 130SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.2N 69.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.9W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 70.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

 Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

 

 

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

rb_lalo-animated3

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°40′ (35.7°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°40′ (40.7°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area NE 410 km (220 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°50′ (45.8°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP MARITIME 17

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Lee 16/1500Z 112.5N 33.1W, moving W ~10.2kt NHC FL – Published 16 Sep 2017 1540z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Lee

DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE – NHC FL

144929_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind LEE NHC

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.5N 33.1W
ABOUT 655 MI…1055 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 33.1 West. Lee is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to are near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

Other

at201714_5day LEEat201714_sat LEE

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 LEE

METAREA2 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1515

WONT50 LFPW 161515
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 384, SATURDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2017 AT 1510 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 16 AT 12 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM LEE 1007 655 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 12.5N 33.1W AT 16/15 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT, EXPECTED
12.5N 33.1W AT 17/00 UTC, THEN 12.4N 34.1W AT 17/12 UTC.

WEST OF SIERRA LEONE.
CONTINUING TO 17/15 UTC AT LEAST.
CYCLONIC INCREASING 8 OR 9. SEVERE GUSTS.

BT

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.
*

 

 

 

 

Mexico: Hurricane NORMA 17E 16/1200Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 16 Sep 2017 1305z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE NORMA 17E

HURRICANE NORMA REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

National Hurricane Center (FL)

113432_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind NHC NORMA

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 161129
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
600 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

…HURRICANE NORMA REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Baja California Peninsula should
monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Norma has been
nearly stationary, but a slow northward motion should begin later
today and continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Norma will begin affecting portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur later
today and continue into early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early Sunday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late Sunday or early Monday.

RAINFALL: Norma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts in excess of 20
inches possible. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening
flash floods.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Other

ep201717_5day NORMA WUNDep201717_sat NORMA WUND

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 EP 15 MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1439

WTPZ22 KNHC 160848 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172017
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO TODOS SANTOS…AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.7N 110.3W

000
FZPN03 KNHC 160945
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT SEP 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN SEP 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON SEP 18.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 19.0N 110.2W 987 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 16
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 0 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS
80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND
70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 20.4N 110.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 S SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180
NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 103W AND 114W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 22.5N 111.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS
TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA
OVER EAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS FROM 16N TO 26N
E OF 116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 23.5N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 24.0N 113.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA NEAR 24.5N 112.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.8N 126.0W 1007 MB AT 0900
UTC SEP 16 MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
TO 18N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 16.1N
126.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 90
NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 17.0N
126.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 121W AND 129W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 17.7N
126.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 18.0N
128.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FIFTEEN-E NEAR
17.0N 130.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16…

.HURRICANE NORMA…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
180 NM E SEMICIRCLE…AND WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM N QUADRANT. SCATTERED MDOERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM TO 180
NM SW QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N101W TO 08N108W…RESUMING FROM
13N129W…TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N134W 1011 MB…TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 360 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 98W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
13N TO 18N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W…AND WITHIN 90 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF 1011 MB LOW PRES.

$$

.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.