Philippines/ China/ South China Sea: Tropical Storm NURI 02W 12/1200Z 16.8N 117.2E, moving W 11kt. Max wind 35kt. 998hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 12 Jun 2020 1425Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm NURI 02W

“BUTCHOY” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LUZON (PAGASA)

The tropical cyclone now over the central part of the South China Sea is expected to intensify gradually, and will edge closer to the coast of western Guangdong in the next couple of days. (HKO)

logo

2002-00

 

TS 2002 (Nuri)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 12 June 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 12 June>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N16°50′ (16.8°)
E117°10′ (117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°25′ (18.4°)
E115°25′ (115.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°00′ (20.0°)
E113°35′ (113.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 June>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°30′ (23.5°)
E110°20′ (110.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)

 

CMA LOGO

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_0w00010000_20200612170000007

 

Typhoon Message
20200612 20:56

National Meteorological Center No.1872
Analysis Time: Jun. 12th 12 UTC
Name of TC: NURI
Num. of TC: 2002
Current Location: 17.1°N 117.2°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 18m/s(64.8km/h)
Central Pressure: 998hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 180km SE 150km SW 140km NW 120km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs NURI will moving NW at speed of 17km/h

xxxxx

Philippines

Tropical Depression”Butchoy”

Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

Issued at 11:00 am, 12 June 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 PM today or earlier.)
“BUTCHOY” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LUZON.
  • Tropical Depression BUTCHOY is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm within 24 hours. It is also expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow morning and is forecast to move generally northwestward towards southern China.
  • All tropical cyclone wind signals have been lifted. However, occasional gusts associated with the Southwest Monsoon may still be experienced over most of Northern and Central Luzon and the western section of Southern Luzon and Visayas.
  • Heavy Rainfall Outlook
  • Today: Moderate to heavy rains over Zambales, Bataan, Pangasinan, the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands, and Occidental Mindoro. Light to moderate with at times heavy monsoon rains over Metro Manila, Western Visayas, and the rest of Luzon.
  • Flooding and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. The public and disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to take appropriate measures and monitor the Rainfall or Thunderstorm Advisories or Heavy Rainfall Warnings of PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.
  • Coastal Water Conditions
  • In the next 24 hours, moderate to very rough seas (1.5 to 4.5 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon especially over the seaboards of Ilocos Region, Zambales and Bataan due to BUTCHOY and the Southwest Monsoon. Sea travel is risky especially for those using small seacrafts.
Location of Eye/center

At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression “BUTCHOY” was estimated based on all available data at 140 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales or 165 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (15.9 °N, 118.8 °E )

Movement

Moving West Northwestward at 25 km/h

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 390 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.4°N, 116.7°E)
  • 48 Hour(Sunday morning):915 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)(20.9°N, 113.2°E)
Wind Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 PM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2002 NURI (2002) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998
HPA
AT 16.8N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 18.4N 115.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 20.0N 113.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 23.5N 110.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

CHINA

海事天气公报
制作:赵伟   2020 年  06 月  12 日  18 时

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

AT 1015UTC JUN.12 2020=

MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUN.12=

FCST VALID 0600UTC JUN.13=

WARNNING=

NIL=

SUMMARY=

TD(01) 1000HPA AT 16.5N 118.3E MVG WNW 17KMH

AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)

AND FCST FOR 130600UTC AT 18.9N 115.0E 990HPA

AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER=

SW WINDS FROM 12 TO 14M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO

3.0M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=

SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL AND SEA EAST OF THE

PHILIPPINES

AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER BOHAI STRAIT AND

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA AND

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA AND HORIZONTAL

VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1KM=

HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER

NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND KOREA STRAIT

AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH

CHINA SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA AND LAUT MALUKU=

FCST=

BOHAI SEA

S WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT TO SMOOTH FOG

VIS POOR TO MOD=

BOHAI STRAIT

S WINDS BACK E 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH HVY

FOG VIS VERY POOR=

NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA

S WINDS BACK E 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH HVY

FOG VIS VERY POOR=

CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA

E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO

12M/S SEA STATE SLT FOG BECMG HVY FOG VIS VERY

POOR=

SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA

E WINDS VEER SW 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD

MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS VERY POOR=

NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW

WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD

OVERCAST BECMG CLOUDY VIS POOR TO GOOD=

SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE

MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=

TAIWAN STRAIT

SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE

MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD TO MOD=

SEA EAST OF TAIWAN

S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST

VIS POOR=

BASHI CHANNEL

SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE

ROUGH OVERCAST VIS POOR TO MOD=

NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

E WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BECMG

CYCLONIC WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA

STATE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVERCAST VIS POOR TO

VERY=

EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA

CYCLONIC WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA

STATE ROUGH HVY RAIN VIS VERY POOR=

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY BECMG

LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=

SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY BECMG

LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=

NORTHEASTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA

W WINDS BACK SW 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE SLT HVY FOG

VIS MOD TO POOR=

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA

S WINDS VEER SW 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT HVY FOG

VIS POOR TO VERY=

KOREA STRAIT

SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD FOG

BECMG RAINSTORM VIS VERY POOR=

SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN

SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN

BECMG OVERCAST VIS VERY POOR TO POOR=

SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO

10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST

VIS POOR TO MOD=

SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO

12M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS POOR TO MOD=

SEA WEST OF GUAM

E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS

POOR=

SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES

SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS MOD

TO POOR=

SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA

E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD LIGHT

RAIN VIS POOR=

SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA

SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS

POOR=

SEA SOUTH OF JAWA

SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS MOD=

SEA WEST OF SUMATERA

SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH

CLOUDY VIS POOR TO MOD=

MALACCA STRAIT

SE WINDS VEER S 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY

VIS POOR TO MOD=

SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE

SW WINDS 04 TO 07M/S BACK S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA

STATE SMOOTH TO SLT LIGHT RAIN BECMG CLOUDY VIS

POOR=

SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM

W WINDS BACK SW 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE SLT LIGHT

RAIN VIS POOR=

GULF OF THAILAND

W WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO

12M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS

POOR=

ANDAMAN SEA

SW WINDS VEER W 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY

BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=

海事公报(北京,中央气象台)

2020年06月12日1015时(世界时)

06月12日0600时(世界时)海事分析

06月13日0600时(世界时)海事预报

海事分析

热带低压(01)位于北纬16.5度、东经118.3度,中心气压1000百帕,中心附近最大风速15米/秒,浪高4.0米,以17公里/小时的速度向西西北方向移动。

预计13日0600时(世界时)位于北纬18.9度、东经115.0度,中心气压990百帕,中心附近最大风速23米/秒。

日本以南洋面出现了6~7级、阵风8级的西南风,浪高3.0米;

巴士海峡、菲律宾以东洋面、南海东北部海域出现了6~7级、阵风8级的东南风,浪高2.5米;

渤海海峡、黄海北部和中部海域、日本海西南部海域出现了能见度不足1公里的大雾。

能见度不足10公里的海域还有东海北部海域、朝鲜海峡、日本以南洋面、南海中东部海域、安达曼海以及马鲁古海等海域。

海事预报

渤海

南风3~4级,海况轻浪转小浪,雾,能见度差转中等。

渤海海峡

南风转东风3~4级,海况小浪,大雾,能见度极差。

黄海北部海域

南风转东风3~4级,海况小浪,大雾,能见度极差。

黄海中部海域

东风3~4级增大至4~5级,海况轻浪,雾转大雾,能见度极差。

黄海南部海域

东风转西南风4~5级,海况轻浪转中浪,中雨转大雨,能见度极差。

东海北部海域

南风4~5级、阵风5~6级转西南风5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪,阴转多云,能见度差转好。

东海南部海域

南风5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪,阴,能见度好。

台湾海峡

东南风5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪,阴,能见度好转中等。

台湾以东洋面

南风4~5级、阵风5~6级增大至5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪,阴,能见度差。

巴士海峡

东南风6~7级、阵风7~8级,海况大浪,阴,能见度差转中等。

南海东北部海域

东风6~7级、阵风7~8级转旋转风7~8级、阵风8~9级,海况大浪转巨浪,阴,能见度差转极差。

南海中东部海域

旋转风7~8级、阵风8~9级,海况大浪,大雨,能见度极差。

南海西南部海域

西南风4~5级,海况中浪,多云转小雨,能见度差。

南海东南部海域

西南风4~5级,海况中浪,多云转小雨,能见度差。

日本海东北部海域

西风转西南风4~5级,海况轻浪,大雾,能见度中等转差。

日本海西南部海域

南风转西南风3~4级,海况轻浪,大雾,能见度差转极差。

朝鲜海峡

西南风4~5级、阵风5~6级增大至5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况轻浪转中浪,雾转暴雨,能见度极差。

日本以南洋面

西南风6~7级、阵风7~8级减小至5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪,小雨转阴,能见度极差转差。

菲律宾东北洋面

东南风5~6级、阵风6~7级减小至4~5级、阵风5~6级,海况中浪,阴,能见度差转中等。

菲律宾东南洋面

东风3~4级增大至4~5级,海况中浪,多云,能见度差转中等。

关岛以西洋面

东风4~5级,海况中浪,小雨,能见度差。

菲律宾西南海域

东南风3~4级,海况轻浪,多云,能见度中等转差。

印度尼西亚东北海域

东风3~4级,海况轻浪转中浪,小雨,能见度差。

印度尼西亚东南海域

东南风4~5级,海况中浪,小雨,能见度差。

爪哇岛以南海域

东南风4~5级,海况中浪,多云,能见度中等。

苏门答腊以西洋面

东南风4~5级、阵风5~6级增大至5~6级、阵风6~7级,海况中浪转大浪,多云,能见度差转中等。

马六甲海峡

东南风转南风3~4级,海况轻浪,多云,能见度差转中等。

新加坡以东海域

西南风3~4级转南风4~5级,海况小浪转轻浪,小雨转多云,能见度差。

越南以南海域

西风转西南风4~5级,海况轻浪,小雨,能见度差。

泰国湾

西风3~4级增大至4~5级,海况轻浪,多云转小雨,能见度差。

安达曼海

西南风转西风3~4级,海况中浪,多云转小雨,能见度差。

Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 12/Jun/2020

Tropical Cyclone Warning

Tropical depression over the central part of the South China Sea with central pressure 998 hectopascals was named Nuri. At 121200 UTC, it was centred within 90 nautical miles of one six point seven degrees north (16.7 N) one one seven point eight degrees east (117.8 E) and is forecast to move northwest at about 12 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots. Radius of over 2 metre waves 180 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 131200 UTC Two zero point three degrees north (20.3 N) One one four point three degrees east (114.3 E) Maximum winds 50 knots. Forecast position and intensity at 141200 UTC Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N) One one one point one degrees east (111.1 E) Maximum winds 25 knots. Forecast position and intensity at 151200 UTC Dissipated over land.

The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
This link will open in a new windowSevere Weather Information Centre

Philippines Tropical Cyclone Warning (link)

=========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

United States/ Canada: Tropical Storm Cristobal 07/1500Z 28.7N 90.0W, moving N ~10.25kt. Wind ~45.89kt. 994mb (NHC FL) – 07 Jun 2020 1520Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Cristobal

…CRISTOBAL MOVING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

Tornado Watch for portions of
Coastal Alabama
Coastal Mississippi
Coastal Waters

National Hurricane Center FL

145206_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

 

 

 

Key Msgs

000
WTNT33 KNHC 071447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

…CRISTOBAL MOVING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.7N 90.0W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB…29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 90.0 West. Cristobal
is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn
toward the north-northwest late today or tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast this afternoon, then move inland across Louisiana late
today through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and
Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain
near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast before landfall. Gradual weakening will begin once
Cristobal moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km),
mainly to the east of the center. A Weatherflow site at Bayou
Bienvenue, Louisiana, recently measured a sustained wind of 37 mph
(60 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne…3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…2-4 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola
Bay, and Tampa Bay…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to
12 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to
6 inches are expected across portions of the eastern Gulf Coast,
along with the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains
near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead
to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across
portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible
along the central Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
northern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

TORNADOES

CANADA

 

https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.htmlhttps://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2020 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL is currently located near 28.7 N 90.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). CRISTOBAL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Jackson (32.3 N, 90.2 W)
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Meridian (32.4 N, 88.7 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours
    Memphis (35.1 N, 90.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 071445
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
1500 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
FLORIDA LINE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE…DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE…IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 90.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 90.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 89.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.2N 90.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…180NE 170SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.6N 91.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.2N 92.2W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.9N 91.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.5N 89.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.8N 87.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 52.6N 83.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 90.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3…AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Australia: Tropical Cyclone Mangga 27S 22/1500Z 13.4S 95.5E, moving SSE ~15.65kt. Wind ~35.09kt, gusts to ~51.29kt (TCWC Perth) – Published 22 May 2020 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Mangga

Heavy rain and gales remain possible on the Cocos Keeling Islands overnight as Tropical Cyclone Mangga passes to the southwest.

Warning zone: Cocos Keeling Islands.

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Mangga

Issued at 10:04 pm CCT Friday 22 May 2020. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 12.

idw60280

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Heavy rain and gales remain possible on the Cocos Keeling Islands overnight as Tropical Cyclone Mangga passes to the southwest.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Cocos Keeling Islands.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mangga at 9:30 pm CCT:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.4 degrees South, 95.5 degrees East , 195 kilometres southwest of Cocos Island .
Movement: south southeast at 29 kilometres per hour .

The centre of tropical cyclone Mangga is passing to the southwest of Cocos Keeling Islands. Conditions will ease during Saturday morning as the system moves away.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour remain possible at Cocos Keeling Islands for the next few hours if the system intensifies. Any GALES should ease on Saturday morning as the cyclone moves away. Heavy rain is also possible.

Recommended Action:

The Australian Federal Police advise of a BLUE ALERT for the Cocos Keeling Islands. Communities on Home and West Islands need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details:

Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm May 22 1 13.4S 95.5E 75
+6hr 4 am May 23 1 14.7S 96.7E 115
+12hr 10 am May 23 tropical low 16.2S 98.3E 135
+18hr 4 pm May 23 tropical low 17.7S 100.4E 160
+24hr 10 pm May 23 tropical low 19.2S 103.0E 185
+36hr 10 am May 24 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+48hr 10 pm May 24 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 10 am May 25 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 10 pm May 25 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 1:30 am CCT Saturday

IDW24400

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 11:34 pm WST on Friday 22 May 2020

Headline:
Heavy rain and gales remain possible on the Cocos Keeling Islands overnight as Tropical Cyclone Mangga passes to the southwest.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cocos Keeling Islands.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mangga at 9:30 pm CCT:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.4 degrees South 95.5 degrees East, estimated to be 195 kilometres southwest of Cocos Island.

Movement: south southeast at 29 kilometres per hour.

 

The centre of tropical cyclone Mangga is passing to the southwest of Cocos Keeling Islands. Conditions will ease during Saturday morning as the system moves away.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour remain possible at Cocos Keeling Islands for the next few hours if the system intensifies. Any GALES should ease on Saturday morning as the cyclone moves away. Heavy rain is also possible.

Recommended Action:
The Australian Federal Police advise of a BLUE ALERT for the Cocos Keeling Islands. Communities on Home and West Islands need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 1:30 am CCT Saturday 23 May.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 22 May, 2020 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm MANGGA is currently located near 12.5 S 95.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). MANGGA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Carnarvon (24.9 S, 113.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Useless Loop (26.3 S, 113.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Home Is. (12.2 S, 96.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Kalbarri (27.7 S, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 48 hours
    Northampton (28.4 S, 114.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 48 hours
    Gascoyne Junction (25.1 S, 115.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
    Geraldton (28.8 S, 114.6 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
    Cardabia (23.0 S, 113.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    Green Head (30.1 S, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Exmouth (21.9 S, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Warramboo (28.0 S, 117.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Meekatharra (26.5 S, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Moora (30.7 S, 116.0 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

NONE

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTAU05 APRF 221252
IDW23100
40:2:2:24:13S095E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1252UTC 22 MAY 2020

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Mangga was centred within 50 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal six south (12.6S)
longitude ninety five decimal zero east (95.0E)
Recent movement : south southeast at 13 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 180 nautical miles in NE quadrant and within 120 nautical miles in SE
quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 0000 UTC 23
May.

Winds above 34 knots within 180 nautical miles in NE quadrant and within 120
nautical miles in SE quadrant.
Rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 May: Within 75 nautical miles of 15.3 south 97.4 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 May: Within 100 nautical miles of 18.3 south 101.6 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 22 May 2020.

WEATHER PERTH

 

===========================================================================================================
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

India/ Bangladesh/ Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone (Super Cyclone) AMPHAN 19/1500Z position 17.9N 87.1E, moving N 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 19 May 2020 1930Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone AMPHAN 01B

INDIA: Super Cyclone AMPHAN is expected to cross West Bengal–Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) close to Sundarbans during afternoon to evening of 20th May 2020.  This cyclone has extensive damaging potential – See details below (RSMC New Delhi)

BANGLADESH: AMPHAN LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN KHULNA-CHATTOGRAM DURING AFTERNOON / EVENING 20 MAY 2020. (See below for details)

AMPHAN was a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at 19 May, 2020 12:00 GMT – (TSR UCL London)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 40 FEET – JTWC

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Amphan) Warning #14
Issued at 19/1500Z

 

io0120-2

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
191200Z — NEAR 17.4N 87.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 010 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 87.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 19.5N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 21.9N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 24.1N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 25.5N 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 87.1E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM THAT STILL RETAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED BANDING DESPITE NO LONGER PRESENTING A VISIBLE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY LONG-RANGE RADAR DATA FROM INDIA,
WHICH CAPTURES THE INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL, IN ADDITION TO A MICROWAVE
EYE SEEN IN A 191033Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS IN AGREEMNT GIVEN
THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 191215Z
OF T5.9 (95 KNOTS). TC 01B IS TRACKING THROUGH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO
HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS AND A DETERIORATING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BEFORE TAU 48 DUE TO HIGH (>25 KNOTS) VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY
MINIMAL SPREAD (50 NM) AT LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THEREAFTER AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE VORTEX. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COTI, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

sat_infrared-1

INDIA

 

 

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences.Phone:(91) 11-24652484, FAX: (91) 11-24643128, 24623220, Website: rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in

IMD Press

Click to access press-release.pdf

BANGLADESH

bd statement

http://live3.bmd.gov.bd/p/Special-Weather-Bulletin/


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 19 May, 2020 12:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm AMPHAN is currently located near 17.4 N 87.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). AMPHAN is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. AMPHAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bangladesh
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Puri (19.9 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Baleshwar (21.5 N, 87.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Kolkata (22.5 N, 88.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Jessore (23.2 N, 89.2 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kharagpur (22.4 N, 87.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
    Rajshahi (24.4 N, 88.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Jamshedpur (22.8 N, 86.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

A19 DocR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 191800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 19 MAY 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

SUB: SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER
WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL: CYCLONE WARNING
FOR WEST BENGAL AND NORTH ODISHA COASTS: RED MESSAGE.

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS
UM-PUN) OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 09 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF
19TH MAY, 2020 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 87.0 DEG E, ABOUT 320 KM
NEARLY SOUTH OF PARADIP (ODISHA), 470 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA
(WEST BENGAL) AND 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (BANGLADESH).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS NORTHWEST BAY
OF BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL \U2013 BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN
DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND HATIYA ISLANDS (BANGLADESH) CLOSE TO
SUNDARBANS DURING AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS OF 20TH MAY 2020 WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 83-89 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS.(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO
115 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/05/20 AT 00 UTC 19.4 N / 87.4 E MAX WIND 95 KTS
EXTREMLY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/05/20 AT 12 UTC 21.8 N / 88.3 E MAX WIND 85 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 15/20 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS TO THE E OF 72
DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW/W 15/25 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS

TO THE E OF 75 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF

60 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 68 EG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF

60 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80

DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG

E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 4 DEG N: SW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC NW-LY

10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 92 DEG E (.)

2)REST AREA: SW-LY 15/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)S OF 6 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2NM (.)

2)S OF 6 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: 4-3NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 7 DEG N TO W OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 7 DEG N TO W OF 87 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 13 CYCLONIC 90/105 KTS (.)

2)S OF 14 DEG N: SW-LY 20/30 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 18 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 18 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)

2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 20/30 KTS BEC SE-LY 25/35 KTS

TO THE N OF 20 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 93 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)E OF 88 TO 93 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 93 DEG E: 4-3 NM(.)

2)E OF 88 TO 93 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

———————————————————–

TOO:-19/2330=

Weather chart 19.05.2020 0600 UTC (Bangladesh Met)

 

Bangladesh Special Weather Bulletin (link)

===========================================================================================================
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

United States (NC): Tropical Storm ARTHUR 17/1500Z 30.5N 77.4W, moving NNE ~8.09kt 1002mb (NHC FL) – Published 17 May 2020 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm ARTHUR

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER…NHC FL

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

144602_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

000
WTNT31 KNHC 171444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.5N 77.4W
ABOUT 345 MI…550 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 77.4 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will
remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and
South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the coast
of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from
the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 to 36 hours. Arthur is likely to lose tropical
characteristics on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday,
with locally higher amounts.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of
the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along
the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 17 May, 2020 15:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm ARTHUR is currently located near 30.5 N 77.4 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). ARTHUR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 171444
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
1500 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 77.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 77.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 77.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.0N 76.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.3N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…110NE 110SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.3N 70.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.1N 68.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 36.5N 66.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 35.5N 64.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 77.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1…AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

===========================================================================================================
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Philippines/Taiwan/Japan: Typhoon VONGFONG (STC Ambo in PH) 01W 13/1200Z 12.1°N 127.9°E, moving WNW 06kt. Wind 70kt, gust 100kt. 1006 hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 12 May 2020 1330Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON VONGFONG 01W
(Severe Tropical Cyclone Ambo in Philippines)

“AMBO” INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AMBO is forecast to further intensify as it approaches the Eastern Visayas-Bicol Region area – PAGASA

VONGFONG is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Expected to become a category 2 storm by 13 May, 18:00 UTC and further intensify to a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by 14 May, 6:00 UTC  (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 22 FEET (JTWC)

JMA logo

2001-00

 

 

xxxx

TY 2001 (Vongfong)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 13 May 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 13 May>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N12°05′ (12.1°)
E127°55′ (127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 May>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°40′ (12.7°)
E125°05′ (125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 175 km (95 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 May>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N14°35′ (14.6°)
E122°10′ (122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 May>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N17°50′ (17.8°)
E120°35′ (120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 May>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°50′ (20.8°)
E122°35′ (122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 May>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°35′ (25.6°)
E129°05′ (129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (360 NM)

Philippines

Severe Tropical Storm”Ambo”

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

Issued at 05:00 pm, 13 May 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 PM today.)
“AMBO” INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
  • Heavy Rainfall Outlook:
  • Tonight (13 May): Scattered light to moderate with at times heavy rainshowers during thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas.
  • Tomorrow (14 May): Moderate to heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate.
  • Residents in these areas are advised to take precautionary measures, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the local rainfall or thunderstorm advisories and heavy rainfall warnings from PAGASA Regional Services Divisions (PRSD). Flooding and rain-induced landslides may occur in highly to very highly susceptible areas during heavy or prolonged rainfall.
  • Tropical Cyclone Winds:
  • Strong to gale force winds may begin to affect: Northern Samar and northern portion of Eastern Samar and Samar tomorrow afternoon; Sorsogon, Ticao Island, Catanduanes, and southern portion of Albay on Friday morning.
  • Other Hazards and Warning Information:
  • Rough seas will be experienced over the eastern seaboard of Bicol Region and the northern and eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas today. Sea travel is risky over these areas.
  • AMBO is forecast to further intensify as it approaches the Eastern Visayas-Bicol Region area.
  • TCWS #1 may be raised over southern portion of Camarines Sur and the rest of Albay in the next bulletin.
track-2
Location of Eye/center

At 4:00 PM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “AMBO” was estimated based on all available data at 315 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar (12.1 °N, 128.3 °E )

Movement

Moving West Northwest at 10 km/h

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 160 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar(12.7°N, 126.1°E)
  • 48 Hour(Friday afternoon):20 km North Northwest of Daet, Camarines Norte(14.3°N, 122.9°E)
  • 72 Hour(Saturday afternoon): In the vicinity of Conner, Apayao(17.8°N, 121.3°E)
  • 96 Hour(Sunday afternoon):265 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes(21.9°N, 124.0°E)
  • 120 Hour(Monday afternoon):1,280 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(26.6°N, 132.6°E)
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Sorsogon,Ticao Island,Catanduanes,and southern portion of Albay (Oas,Tabaco,Ligao City,Pio Duran,Guinobatan,Malilipot,Jovellar,Camalig,Santo Domingo,Bacacay,Rapu-rapu,Daraga,Legazpi,Manito)
  • Visayas
    • Northern Samar,northern portion of Samar (Calbayog,Sta. Margarita,Gandara,Matuguinao,Pagsanghan,San Jorge,San Jose De Buan,Tarangnan,Catbalogan City,Jiabong,Motiong,San Sebastian,Paranas,Hinabangan),and northern portion of Eastern Samar (Jipapad,Arteche,Maslog,Oras,San Policarpio,Dolores,Can-avid,Taft,Sulat,San Julian,Borongan City)
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of 30-60 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind
  • Twigs and branches of small trees may be broken.
  • Some banana plants may be tilted or downed.
  • Some houses of very light materials (nipa and cogon) may be partially unroofed.
  • Unless this warning signal is upgraded during the entire existence of the tropical cyclone, only very light or no damage at all may be sustained by the exposed communities.
  • Rice crop, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures
  • When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
  • The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
  • The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
  • Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do
  • Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
  • Clean up drainage system.
  • Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

TAIWAN

Go to https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V8/E/P/Typhoon/TY_NEWS.html

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Typhoon 01W (Vongfong) Warning #07
Issued at 13/0900Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 12.0N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 128.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 12.3N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 12.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 13.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 14.6N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 17.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 20.3N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 24.0N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 128.2E.
13MAY20. TYPHOON (TY) 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
465 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 May, 2020 6:00 GMT

 

Typhoon VONGFONG is currently located near 12.0 N 128.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph).

VONGFONG is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

VONGFONG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
    Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP21 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 12.1N 127.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 12.7N 125.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 14.6N 122.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 17.8N 120.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 20.8N 122.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 25.6N 129.1E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Philippines Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping (link)

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