New Caledonia/ Norfolk Island/ New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone FEHI 08P 292100Z nr 24.5S 163.9E, moving SSE 23Kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Jan 2018 2212Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FEHI 08P

New Caledonia, Norfolk Island & New Zealand be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET. – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Fehi) Warning #08
Issued at 29/2100Z

sh08182

08p_291800sair

 

WTPS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291800Z — NEAR 23.4S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 165 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 163.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 27.9S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 32.4S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 26 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 37.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 29 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 42.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DECREASING AND HIGHLY SHEARED DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY
291839Z GPM 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A
291235Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS) AND A MULTI-SENSOR SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI
HAS LIKELY COMPLETED TRANSITION TO A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. TC FEHI
CURRENTLY LIES UNDER STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER
ONLY MARGINAL (26-27 DEGREES C) SSTS. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION
INDICATES A STRONG WARM ANOMALY IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER, WITH A
WEAK WARM ANOMALY PRESENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SUPPORTING THE
ASSESSMENT THAT TC FEHI IS IN FACT SUB-TROPICAL. THE STRONG VWS IS
BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND
TAU 24. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSITY FROM TAU 24 TO 48,
AS IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME COMPLETELY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48, AS A 50
KNOT SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

logoimage

65660

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 292022 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI CENTRE 988HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7S 163.9E AT
291800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 21 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 06 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO SOUTHEAST OF PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES EAST OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO SOUTHEAST BY THE
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC APPROXIMATELY 45
NAUTICAL MILES FROM EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, GIVING DT=3.0 MET=2.5
AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING, 3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC 25.6S 164.2E MOV S AT 18 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC 28.7S 164.0E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 31.4S 164.4E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 34.6S 165.1E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 302000 UTC.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jan, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FEHI is currently located near 23.4 S 163.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). FEHI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 60% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Greymouth (42.5 S, 171.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Christchurch (43.5 S, 172.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Dunedin (45.9 S, 170.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Wellington (41.3 S, 174.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Invercargill (46.4 S, 168.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    New Plymouth (39.1 S, 174.1 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201808p1201808p_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

sp201808_5day

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

GALE WARNING 023 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 291921 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI CENTRE 988HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7
SOUTH 163.9 EAST AT 291800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.7S 163.9E AT 291800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 21 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.6S 164.2E AT 300600 UTC
AND NEAR 28.7S 164.0E AT 301800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 020.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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La Reunion/ Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA 06S 191500Z nr 25.7S 52.3E, moving SSW 14Kt (JTWC) – Updated 19 Jan 2018 1905Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA 06S

⚠️ La Reunion beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET- JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) Warning #28
Issued at 19/1500Z

sh06184

 

06s_191200sams

Google Earth Overlay
WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
191200Z — NEAR 25.0S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 52.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 27.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 30.4S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 32.2S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 33.0S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 34.7S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE
IMAGERY FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 191157Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH
POINT 06S WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AROUND TAU 12, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
(<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC BERGUITTA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE DUE TO FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGHOUT ETT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//
NNNN

RSMC LA REUNION

trajectoire B 19

ZCZC 245
WTIO30 FMEE 191214 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 52.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SW: 700 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 560 SW: 440 NW: 130
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/22 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/22 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/23 12 UTC: 37.0 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/24 12 UTC: 39.0 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-lalo6

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 19 Jan, 2018 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BERGUITTA is currently located near 22.8 S 54.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). BERGUITTA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Reunion
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

201806s3201806s_04

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

si201806_5day3

(Above image: @wunderground)

Other

dt1iomlvmaaonip

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 561
WTIO20 FMEE 181242 CCA
……………CORRECTIVE…………..
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 61.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
22.6 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA): Tropical Cyclone JOYCE 05S 121800Z nr 20.7S 119.3E, moving SW 08kt (TCWC Perth) – Updated 12 Jan 2018 2145z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone JOYCE 05S

Australia: Tropical Cyclone Warning for Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey, and inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar.

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Joyce

Issued at 2:44 am AWST Saturday 13 January 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 34.

 

Community Threat

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Watch Zone
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Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Joyce is moving southwest, inland from the east Pilbara coast. Although Joyce will weaken this morning, heavy rain and gusty winds are likely to continue along its track over the weekend.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey, and inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar..

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Sandfire to Pardoo Roadhouse.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Joyce at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.7 degrees South, 119.3 degrees East , 70 kilometres northwest of Marble Bar and 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Joyce should weaken this morning as it tracks to the southwest through the inland Pilbara.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour are possible along the coast from Pardoo Roadhouse through to De Grey and to inland areas as far as Marble Bar for a period on Saturday morning.

Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are likely to continue near the track of the system over the weekend. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 to 100 mm are expected, with isolated heavier falls of 100-250 mm possible near the system centre.

A Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches and Warnings are current. Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in areas from Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey and inland to Marble Bar need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR with CAUTION: People in areas from Wallal Downs to Pardoo Roadhouse are advised that the wind dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid any dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 13 1 20.7S 119.3E 35
+6hr 8 am January 13 tropical low 21.6S 118.5E 60
+12hr 2 pm January 13 tropical low 22.6S 117.6E 80
+18hr 8 pm January 13 tropical low 23.8S 116.8E 105
+24hr 2 am January 14 tropical low 24.9S 116.0E 130
+36hr 2 pm January 14 tropical low 27.1S 114.6E 165
+48hr 2 am January 15 tropical low 28.6S 113.6E 200
+60hr 2 pm January 15 tropical low 29.9S 113.0E 235
+72hr 2 am January 16 tropical low 31.1S 112.8E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Saturday

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) Warning #12A CORRECTED Corrected Final Warning
Issued at 12/1500Z

sh0518105s_121200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS33 PGTW 121500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 20.3S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 119.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 21.8S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 23.9S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 26.2S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 119.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM EAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYSTEM NOW INLAND WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH SATELLITE FIXES AND PORT HEDLAND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BANDS WITH A
CENTRAL VORTEX JUST EAST OF THE STATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM BEDOUT ISLAND
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC 05S
ON A TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LAND INTERACTION
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 05S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING OF AUSTRALIA.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jan, 2018 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm JOYCE is currently located near 20.3 S 119.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). JOYCE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Nullagine (21.9 S, 120.1 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Newman (23.3 S, 119.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Gascoyne Junction (25.1 S, 115.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

201805s1201805s_01

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:21S119E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1846UTC 12 JANUARY 2018

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Joyce was centred over land within 20 nautical
miles of
latitude twenty decimal seven south (20.7S)
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal three east (119.3E)
Recent movement : southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots over water easing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 13 January.

Winds above 34 knots within 75 nautical miles of centre over water until 0000
UTC 13 January with rough to very rough seas and low to moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 13 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 22.6 south 117.6 east over
land
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 13 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 24.9 south 116.0 east over
land
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 13 January 2018.

WEATHER PERTH

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone AVA (03S) 082100Z position nr 27.7S 46.8E, moving WSW 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jan 2018 2145z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone AVA (03S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) Warning #25
Issued at 08/2100Z

sh0318103s_081200sams

Google Earth Overlay

 

 
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 27.3S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 46.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 28.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 33.7S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 37.3S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 32 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 46.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 490 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTING THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS)
AND BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BEING OFFSET BY
COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HOWEVER, THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 03S WILL
INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRIOR TO TAU 12,
THE TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WTIH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTH THROUGH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WAS NOT PREDICTED IN THE
MODEL SOLUTION. DUE TO THE INACCURATE PREDICTION OF THE SYSTEMS
INITIAL DIRECTION THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

ZCZC 601
WTIO30 FMEE 081856
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 670 SE: 520 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 46.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/11 18 UTC: 49.2 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AVA’S STRUCTURE REMAINS ATYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM WITH A POOR LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION SEEN ON LATEST MW IMAGERY ALONG WITH DISPLACED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ON THE LATEST MSG1 IMAGERY, AN EXPOSED VORTEX IS SEEN
SOUTH OF FORT-DAUPHIN. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT
GALES FORCE WINDS ARE STILL ASSUMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE TRACK HAS TURNED WESTWARDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT TOMOROW, THE
RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND AVA SHOULD GRADUALLY CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.
A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD IS GRADUALLY
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BECOME INSUFFICIENT.
FROM WEDNESDAY, AVA SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAK, AND SHOULD EVOLVE PROGRESSIVELY IN WARM CORE SECLUSION.
AVA EXTRATROPICALISATION PROCESS IS FORECASTED TO BE ACHIEVE FROM
THURSDAY EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.=
NNNN

trajectoire1

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-lalo1

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jan, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AVA is currently located near 27.3 S 46.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). AVA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the French Southern Ocean and Antarctic Lands
        probability for TS is 95% in about 72 hours
    the Heard & McDonald Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201803s1201803s_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

si201803_5day1

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 905
WTIO24 FMEE 081841
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
NNNN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Vietnam: Tropical Depression ONE/ Agaton 01W 021500Z nr 9.8N 118.3E, moving W 15kt 1006hPa (JMA) – Published 02 Jan 2018 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression ONE ( 01W)

Agaton in Philippines

#AgatonPH HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF ABORLAN, PALAWAN – PAGASA

logo

TD
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 2 January 2018

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 2 January>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N9°50′ (9.8°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 3 January>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N9°55′ (9.9°)
E115°20′ (115.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 3 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°20′ (10.3°)
E112°05′ (112.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11
FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #AgatonPH
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 02 January 2018

#AgatonPH HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF ABORLAN, PALAWAN

• Moderate to heavy rains is expected over the areas with TCWS#1 as well as Bicol Region, Samar provinces, Southern Quezon, Panay Island and the rest of MIMAROPA. Residents of these areas must undertake precautionary measures against possible flooding and landslides and coordinate with their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
• Sea travel is risky over the areas under TCWS #1 and the seaboards of Northern Luzon and Southern Luzon, eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, eastern and western seaboards of Visayas, and eastern seaboard of Mindanao due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon and TD #AgatonPH.
Location of eye/center At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression #AgatonPH was estimated based on all available data at 40 km South of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan (09.4°N, 118.7°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of up to 55 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 75 kph.
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West at 30 kph.
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): 165 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(12.0°N, 113.0°E)
• 48 Hour(Thursday evening):800 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(15.0°N, 108.0°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS#1 (30-60 kph Expected in 36 hours)
Palawan
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

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HIMAWARI Imagery

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TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Jan, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression ONE is currently located near 9.4 N 118.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). ONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

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18010221

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 978 HPA
AT 39N 156E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 1200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 40N 162E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 42N 168E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 42N 163E
MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 44N 141E SEA OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 24N 117E 17N 122E 14N 114E 22N 111E 24N 117E.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 09.4N 119.4E SULU SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 09.6N 116.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 10.4N 112.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 160E 49N 180E
37N 180E 39N 165E 45N 160E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 27N 163E EAST 25 KT.
LOW 984 HPA AT 58N 179W WNW 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 27N 163E TO 27N 167E 26N 173E.
COLD FRONT FROM 27N 163E TO 23N 158E 20N 151E.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 42N 163E TO 41N 167E 39N 168E.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 168E TO 37N 172E 33N 176E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 168E TO 34N 167E 29N 163E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 021200

TTT WARNING 6

AT 1200 02 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMICIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMICIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 031200 ONE TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 041200 ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

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