Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon TRAMI 291500Z nr 28.7N 129.1E, moving NE 18kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Sep 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon TRAMI

TRAMI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Okinawa, Ryukyu Islands and mainland Japan beware!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 28W (Trami) Warning #36
Issued at 29/1500Z

 

 

 

wp28183

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 27.9N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 128.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 30.9N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 35.2N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 42 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 40.9N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 129.1E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

 

TY 1824 (Trami)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 29 September 2018

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 29 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N27°55′ (27.9°)
E128°20′ (128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SW 650 km (350 NM)
NE 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 29 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N28°05′ (28.1°)
E128°25′ (128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SW 650 km (350 NM)
NE 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 29 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N29°10′ (29.2°)
E129°30′ (129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area E 310 km (170 NM)
W 260 km (140 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N30°40′ (30.7°)
E131°10′ (131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area E 350 km (190 NM)
W 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N32°35′ (32.6°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (27 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area E 390 km (210 NM)
W 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°50′ (34.8°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area SE 430 km (230 NM)
NW 370 km (200 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

 

eng_logo_1

Typhoon Information

No.24 TRAMI

Issued at(KST) : 2018.09.29. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2018.09.29. 12:00 Analysis 27.8 128.4 950 43 155 390
(WNW 300)
Strong Medium NE 28
2018.09.30. 12:00 Forecast 36.0 138.2 965 37 133 360
(NW 270)
Strong Medium NE 54 110
2018.10.01. 12:00 Forecast 46.1 153.9 985 27 97 ENE 72

※ It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2018 12:00 GMT

Typhoon TRAMI is currently located near 27.9 N 128.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). TRAMI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TRAMI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DrR T29
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/
WTJP31 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 128.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 31.5N 131.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 36.5N 137.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


 
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/ US/ East Pacific: MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA 20E 282100Z 17.7N 117.8W, moving NW ~4.85kt 955mb (NHC FL) – Updated 28 Sep 2018 2120Z (GMT/UTC)

MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA (20E)

Rosa is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

…ROSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING…NHC

MEXICO and US BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET – JTWC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

 

 

 

878
WTPZ35 KNHC 282054
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

…ROSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.7N 117.8W
ABOUT 625 MI…1005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB…28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Rosa.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 117.8 West. Rosa is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
with a slight increase in forward speed by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
anticipated over the next few days, and Rosa could become a
tropical storm by the end of the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Hurricane 20E (Rosa) Warning #14
Issued at 28/1600Z

 

WTPN31 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
281200Z — NEAR 17.0N 117.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 117.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 17.8N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 19.2N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 21.0N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 23.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 26.7N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 31.6N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 117.6W.
HURRICANE 20E (ROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 942 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ25 KNHC 282053 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT…….110NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 118.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 118.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 118.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 118.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.7N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FZPN02 KWBC 281725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 30.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW W OF AREA 42N156E 987 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 33N TO
46N W OF 175E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N161E 984 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 23 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 42N173E 984 MB
AND SECOND CENTER 44N179W 985 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S AND 300 NM SW
QUADRANTS OF FIRST CENTER WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 47N W OF 168W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10
TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N168W 981 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE…480 NM
E…300 NM S AND SW…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 11 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 660 NM SE SEMICIRCLE…AND
360 NM NW AND N QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 55N178E 991 MB MOVING SE 05 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
360 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N178W 988 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND 300 NM
S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW
NW OF AREA 58N175E BELOW.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 57N171W 990 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
600 NM E AND 480 NM N QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16
FT…HIGHEST NEAR 54N161W. ELSEWHERE N OF 56N W OF 164W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 60N174E 984 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 360 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 55N165W TO 61N177W WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 58N175E 989 MB. WITHIN 300 NM
NE AND 240 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 43N158W 986 MB MOVING N 20 KT. WITHIN 660 NM NE…360 NM
SE…300 NM SW…AND 240 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
8 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 59N BETWEEN 143W AND 163W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N161W 990 MB. WITHIN 480 NM N AND NE
QUADRANTS…AND 240 NM S AND SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 45N TO 57N BETWEEN 146W AND
170W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N174W 999 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 300 NM E AND NE OF A LINE FROM 57N166W TO 62N174W WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 40N156W 999 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N151W 996 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S…360 NM
W…AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE 31N TO 45N BETWEEN 147W AND 167W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 40N143W 1000 MB.
WITHIN 420 NM SW AND W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 45N BETWEEN 141W AND 155W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 37N177W 1004 MB. FROM 31N TO 40N
BETWEEN 160W AND 179E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 21 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W AREA
OF N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 46N TO 53N W OF 180W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 150 NM NE OF
A LINE FROM 48N162W TO 55N165W TO 58N172W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
40N168E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 54N TO 57N BETWEEN 157W AND
167W AND WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 58N168W TO 62N175W TO 65N170W
TO 62N167W TO 58N168W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 41N177W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 61N TO 64N BETWEEN 167W AND
173W AND WITHIN 90 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 45N162W TO 49N167W.

.HIGH 53N140W 1027 MB MOVING NW 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 60N149W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N148W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 30N179W 1021 MB MOVING SE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH 42N178E 1014 MB MOVING SE 30 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 30.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ROSA NEAR 17.2N 117.5W 942 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 28
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT
GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE…90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 210 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 39 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ROSA NEAR 19.2N 118.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 44 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ROSA NEAR 23.0N 118.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM W SEMICIRCLE…130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 140 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER OPEN WATERS WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 16N
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ROSA NEAR 26.7N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ROSA NEAR 26.7N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW PRES NEAR 11N97W 1005 MB. WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
11N98W 1004 MB. WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
11N98W 1003 MB. FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W E WINDS 30 TO
35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
12N100W 1003 MB. FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W E WINDS 3O
TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W…INCLUDING GULF
OF TEHAUNTEPEC…N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REAMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28…

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER
OF ROSA.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
A SEGEMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 11N97W TO 15N107W. ANOTHER SEGMENT REACHES FROM
13N124W TO 09N136W. ITCZ CONTINUES W FROM 09N136W TO BEYOND 140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR
11N97W.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 28 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 29 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 30 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW…DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE…12N152W 1007 MB MOVING W 15
KT. TROUGH FROM 14N150W TO LOW TO 03N162W MOVING W 15 KT. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 210 NM N AND NE QUADRANTS OF LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…13N158W 1006
MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW…LIKELY TROPICAL CYCLONE…13N164W 1004
MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT…POSSIBLY TROPICAL STORM FORCE…WITHIN
270 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.

.LOW 10N180E 1009 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 13N168W TO LOW
TO 14N164E MOVING W SLOWLY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS
WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH E OF LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TSTMS ELSEWHERE S OF 14N BETWEEN 168W AND 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N175E 1010 MB. TROUGH FROM 14N170W TO
LOW TO 14N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N166E 1010 MB. TROUGH FROM 11N177W TO
LOW.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N148W TO 24N154W…CONTINUING AS A TROUGH TO
18N159W. COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING E SLOWLY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF TROUGH…AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF
FRONT N OF 28N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N143W TO 25N152W.
TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH FROM 27N140W TO
25N158W.

.NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 172W AND
178E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT FROM 30N164E TO 29N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N178E TO 27N160E.

48 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT FROM 30N148W TO 29N159W.

.HIGH JUST E OF AREA 29N139W 1020 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. RIDGE
FROM HIGH TO 24N151W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 25N145W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 30N180E 1021 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. RIDGES FROM HIGH TO
28N160E…AND FROM HIGH TO 26N155W…MOVING S SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 27N171W 1020 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 28N163W 1019 MB.

.OTHERWISE…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST
AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 157W AND 174W…AND FROM 13N TO
18N BETWEEN 147W AND 152W
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 155W
AND 160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 13 FT FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 158W
AND 167W. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT N OF A LINE FROM 30N180E TO 26N160E.

.OTHERWISE…SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.

$$

.FORECASTER HOUSTON. HONOLULU HI.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Lesser Antilles/ Carribean: Tropical Storm KIRK 27/1800Z 14.0N 59.9W, moving WNW ~11.87kt 1000mb (NHC FL) – Published 27 Sep 2018 1830Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KIRK

…KIRK ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

175022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

868
WTNT32 KNHC 271731
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
200 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

…KIRK ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.0N 59.9W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 90 MI…140 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 59.9 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk
will move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm
Warning area by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of
days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and
into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area in a few hours, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area in a few hours.

RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and
Saturday.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Sep, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KIRK is currently located near 13.0 N 57.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). KIRK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Barbados
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Martinique
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    St. Lucia
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Dominica
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
    Guadeloupe
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Antigua and Barbuda
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours
    Montserrat
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 271451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018
1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 59.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 59.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.3N 61.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.9N 63.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 67.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean/ UK: Post Tropical Cyclone Helene 16/1500Z 43.8N 25.7W, moving N 25 kt 989mb (NHC)- Updated 16 Sep 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone HELENE/ Storm Helene (UK)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

United Kingdom

Pressure UK 16

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for ‘North East England’, ‘North West England’, ‘Northern Ireland’, ‘South West England’, ‘Strathclyde’, ‘SW Scotland, Lothian Borders’, ‘Wales’, ‘Yorkshire & Humber’

Updated 16 September at 0926 BST

Valid from 1800 BST on Mon 17 September to 0800 BST on Tue 18 September

Storm Helene will bring a spell of strong winds to western parts of the UK in particular late Monday and early Tuesday.

– Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport expected.

– Some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer.

– Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges.

– Some short term loss of power and other services.

– Coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves.

– Some damage to trees is possible, for example large branches or trees falling in a few places.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 161441
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

FQNT21 EGRR 160800
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2018
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER UNTIL 0800
UTC ON MONDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2018

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE
THROUGHOUT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH VIOLENT
STORM FORCE 11 IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 50 MILES
OF THE CENTRE BETWEEN 161800UTC AND 170800UTC. LOW 58
NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01 WEST 984 BY SAME
TIME. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORM FORCE
10 AT TIMES AROUND 50 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM 162200UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. LOW 58 NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01
WEST 984 BY SAME TIME. LOW 61 NORTH 26 WEST 980 EXPECTED
63 NORTH 20 WEST 984 BY THAT TIME. AT 160000UTC, LOW 53
NORTH 38 WEST 1003 EXPECTED 54 NORTH 23 WEST 1001 BY
170000UTC
AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

SOLE
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 AT FIRST EXCEPT IN WEST, OTHERWISE
VARIABLE 4, BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5,
INCREASING 6 TO GALE 8 LATER IN WEST. SLIGHT OR MODERATE,
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT FIRST, FOG PATCHES
DEVELOPING. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

SHANNON ROCKALL
WEST BACKING SOUTH 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH IN ROCKALL.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

BAILEY FAEROES
CYCLONIC, BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST, 5 TO 7, INCREASING
GALE 8 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SQUALLY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

SOUTHEAST ICELAND
SOUTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8 AT FIRST IN NORTHEAST,
OTHERWISE WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR THUNDERY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

EAST NORTHERN SECTION
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES, DECREASING 4
AT TIMES LATER, THEN BECOMING CYCLONIC 4 OR 5,
OCCASIONALLY 6 LATER IN FAR SOUTHEAST. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST OF ICELAND. RAIN
OR SHOWERS, THUNDERY AT TIMES IN NORTH. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR IN NORTH

WEST NORTHERN SECTION
IN NORTHEAST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTH. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHEAST, WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
DECREASING MAINLY 3 OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY
VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR EAST. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT
FIRST, OTHERWISE SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHWEST, NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING VARIABLE 3
OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH. SHOWERS. GOOD.
IN NORTHWEST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 3 OR 4 IN FAR
WEST, OTHERWISE 5 TO 7, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8 LATER IN FAR
NORTH. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH LATER.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

EAST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY, BECOMING CYCLONIC,
4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 EXCEPT IN FAR SOUTHWEST,
OTHERWISE CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 TO STORM 10
FOR A TIME, OCCASIONALLY VIOLENT STORM 11 LATER IN FAR
SOUTHEAST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH OR HIGH
IN FAR SOUTH, OCCASIONALLY VERY HIGH LATER IN SOUTHEAST.
FOG PATCHES AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTH, OTHERWISE RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR AT FIRST

WEST CENTRAL SECTION
IN SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY BACKING NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 IN
FAR SOUTHEAST AT FIRST, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8, OTHERWISE
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES,
OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE 3 OR 4 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTHEAST. RAIN
AT TIMES, SHOWERS LATER IN FAR WEST. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN NORTH, CYCLONIC 5 OR 6, BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

DENMARK STRAIT
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES. SLIGHT
OR MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH IN FAR SOUTH. SLEET OR SNOW
AT TIMES. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES NEAR GRENLAND COAST,
OTHERWISE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8,
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN EAST. MODERATE AT TIMES
NEAR COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN EAST. OCCASIONAL SNOW NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE RAIN AT TIMES. MODERATE OR
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR, BUT VERY POOR AT TIMES NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND

NORTH ICELAND
IN NORTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTHWEST,
OTHERWISE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6
AT TIMES. SLIGHT OR MODERATE. SLEET OR SNOW AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR

NORWEGIAN BASIN
VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT FIRST IN EAST, OTHERWISE SOUTHEASTERLY
5 TO 7, BECOMING CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8, INCREASING SEVERE
GALE 9 OR STORM 10 FOR A TIME. MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH
OR VERY ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN FAR NORTH. RAIN
FOR A TIME, SHOWERS LATER. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY
POOR

OUTLOOK FOR FOLLOWING 24 HOURS:
STORMS EXPECTED IN SOLE, SHANNON, EAST CENTRAL SECTION
AND NORWEGIAN BASIN. GALES OR SEVERE GALES EXPECTED IN
EAST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST
CENTRAL SECTION, DENMARK STRAIT AND NORTH ICELAND
UNSCHEDULED STORM WARNINGS ARE BROADCAST VIA SAFETYNET
AND IN
BULLETIN WONT54 EGRR AVAILABLE VIA SOME INTERNET AND
FTPMAIL
OUTLETS=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Depression Florence 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W, moving W 10mph/ ~8.69 kt 1002mb (NHC/NWS) – Updated 16 Sep 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Florence

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

811
WTNT31 KWNH 161511
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 69
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…34.0N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 81.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the day on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Southeastern…Central and western North Carolina…far northern
South Carolina into far southwest Virginia…

Southeastern North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina:

Additional 3 to 6 inches of rain…with isolated maximum of 8
inches possible…with storm total accumulations of 30 to
40 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Central and Western North Carolina…far northern South Carolina and
far southwest Virginia:

Additional 5 to 10 inches of rain, with storm total accumulations of
15 to 20 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce flash
flooding and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

West-central Virginia:

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across southeast North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Oravec

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 35.3N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 39.7N 80.5W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 40.7N 76.1W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 42.3N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 46.1N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Wilmington, NC Local Tropical Website 508 AM EDT Sun Sep 16

 

Other

 

Category 2 Florence Nears Landfall in North Carolina; Catastrophic Flooding Expected

Dr. Jeff Masters

In Florence’s Grip, No Relief for North Carolina

Bob Henson

Dire Flood Threat for the Carolinas as Florence’s Record Rains Continue

Bob Henson

Florence’s Flood Threat Expands Inland

Bob Henson

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 160852 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1000 MB

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 81.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLORENCE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON FLORENCE CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING
AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China / HongKong/ Macau/ Vietnam/ Philippines: Typhoon Mangkhut (26W) 161500Z 22.3N 111.0E, moving WNW 17kt (JTWC) – Updated 16 Sep 2019 1455Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mangkhut (26W)

MANGKHUT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Mangkhut forecast to move west by north direction at the speed of 30 km/h and is predicted to make landfall in coastal areas from Zhuhai to Wuchuan, Guangdong, around afternoon to the night of September 16 – CMA

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 26W (Mangkhut) Warning #39 Final Warning
Issued at 16/1500Z

wp2618

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 22.1N 111.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 111.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 23.0N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.9N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.9N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 25.8N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 111.0E.
TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM WEST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STILL EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR ITS CENTER, WHICH IS NOW OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161100Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM YANGJIANG, 21 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST, READING 17 KTS AND 971 MB.
WITHOUT TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS, 971 MB WOULD SUPPORT A
69 KT SUSTAINED WINDSPEED. TY 26W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING IT TO
SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION WHILE IT TRACKS OVER LAND. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 26W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND IN
SOUTHERN CHINA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 24, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND HWRF RECURVING THE WEAKENING CYCLONE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AROUND THE STR AXIS, AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS CONTINUING
THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND CALLS FOR 26W TO DISSIPATE AFTER
TAU 36. BASED ON INCREASING TRACK UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 24,
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 24 AND
FAIR AFTERWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

 

JMA logo1822-00 M16 JMA TRACK

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 16 September 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 16 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°10′ (22.2°)
E111°35′ (111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 700 km (375 NM)
W 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°05′ (23.1°)
E108°35′ (108.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°55′ (23.9°)
E106°10′ (106.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY #4 – FINAL
FOR: TYPHOON “MANGKHUT” (FORMERLY “OMPONG”)

 

Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 September 2018
Typhoon “MANGKHUT” (formerly “Ompong”) maintains its strength as it moves closer to Southern China.
Location of Center
(10:00 AM today)
The eye of Typhoon “MANGKHUT” was estimated based on all available data at 705 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR)(21.1°N,115.0°E)    Track
Maximum Sustained Winds 145 km/h near the center
Gustiness Up to 180 km/h
Movement Northwest at 30 km/h
Forecast Positions and Intensities
Tomorrow Morning
17 September 2018
1,315 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR) (22.4°N, 109.3°E)
Tropical Storm
Tuesday Morning
18 September 2018
1,835 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR) (24.1°N, 104.5°E) 
Tropical Depression
  • This typhoon no longer has a direct threat in any part of the country.
With this development, this is the final advisory for this disturbance.  The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast at 4 PM today.

PH Emergency Numbers.jpg

HONG KONG

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45 (HkT)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the southeast quarter.

At 10 p.m., Typhoon Mangkhut was centred about 310 kilometres west of Hong Kong (near 22.1 degrees north 111.2 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 30 kilometres per hour into the inland area of southern China and weaken gradually.

With Mangkhut departing, local winds are weakening gradually. However, many places are still being affected by gale or storm force winds. The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal will remain in force for a period of time. Precautions should not yet be relaxed.

Rainbands of Mangkhut will still bring heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Sea will be high with swells. It is expected that Mangkhut will weaken over inland areas of South China, local winds will moderate further on Monday.

Mangkhut today brought different degrees of damages to Hong Kong. There may be hidden danger. Members of the public should remain on the alert for assurance of personal safety.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Cheung Chau, Sha Chau and Sai Kung were 96, 94 and 74 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts 121, 117 and 91 kilometres per hour respectively.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 18:50

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 6:50 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

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Red Warning of Typhoon

16-09-2018Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center continued to issue red warning of typhoon at 6:00 a.m. on September 16. This year’s 22th typhoon Mangkhut, (super typhoon scale), was centered over 420 km south of Taishan city, Guangdong at 5:00 a.m. this morning. China Sea (48m/s). The maximum wind intensity registered scale 15. The minimum air pressure registered 940 hPa. It is forecast to move west by north direction at the speed of 30 km/h and is predicted to make landfall in coastal areas from Zhuhai to Wuchuan, Guangdong, around afternoon to the night of September 16.

From September 16 to 17, central-northern South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, Bashi Channel, Taiwan Island, Qiongzhou Strait, coastal Fujian, coastal Guangdong, Pearl River Estuary, eastern Hainan Island, eastern Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Macao will be exposed to scale 7-10 gale. Heavy rain to rainstorm will batter Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, southeastern Fujian, most portions of Guangxi, Hainan Island, southeastern Taiwan Island. (Sep. 16)

Editor: Liu Shuqiao

NCHMF VIETNAM

TYPHOON WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Sunday, September 16, 2018 22 111.6 TY 133 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Monday, September 17, 2018 23.4 106 td 46 km/hour
19 Tuesday, September 18, 2018 24 100.5 Low 28 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 PM Sunday, September 16, 2018
TC TRACKS

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Sep, 2018 6:00 GMT

 

Typhoon MANGKHUT is currently located near 21.6 N 113.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). MANGKHUT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MANGKHUT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Guiyang (26.6 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1822 MANGKHUT (1822) 970 HPA
AT 22.2N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 23.1N 108.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 23.9N 106.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
PHILIPPINES

WTPH20 RPMM 151200
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 14 FINAL
TYPHOON MANGKHUT (1822)
ANALYSIS 151200UTC
PSTN 19.2N 118.4E
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 80KT
64KT 030NM NE 030NM SE 030NM SW 030NM NW
50KT 100NM NE 080NM SE 080NM SW 100NM NW
30KT 230NM NE 200NM SE 200NM SW 230NM NW
FORECAST 24H 161200UTC
PSTN 21.7N 112.0E
CATE TYPHOON
FORECAST 48H 171200UTC
PSTN 23.2N 106.2E
CATE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
FINAL WARNING
PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND
ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION=
HONG KONG

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 16/Sep/2018
Tropical Cyclone Warning

Severe Typhoon Mangkhut (1822) has weakened into a Typhoon with central pressure 960 hectopascals. At 161200 UTC, it was centred within 60 nautical miles of two two point zero degrees north (22.0 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 16 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 80 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 270 nautical miles over eastern semicircle, 225 nautical miles elsewhere.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 330 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 171200 UTC
Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N)
One zero six point zero degrees east (106.0 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 181200 UTC
Dissipated over land.
CHINA

WWCI50 BABJ 160000
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC SEP.16 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC SEP.16=
FCST VALID 0000UTC SEP.17=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
STY MANGKHUT 1822(1822) 940HPA AT 20.6N 115.6E
MVG WNW 35KMH AND MAX WINDS 50M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
500KM NE
450KM SE
400KM SW
350KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
200KM NE
250KM SE
180KM SW
120KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
60KM NE
80KM SE
80KM SW
60KM NW
AND FCST FOR 170000UTC AT 23.0N 108.9E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NE/E WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SOUTHWESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND TAIWAN STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 26 TO 38M/S GUSTS 40 TO 48M/S SEAS UP
TO 10.0M OVER NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
WINDS FROM 18 TO 22M/S GUSTS 25 TO 30M/S SEAS UP
TO 6.0M OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW/W WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVE ANDAMAN
SEA AND MALACCA STRAIT AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND SEA SOUTH OF
JAWA AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
NE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
TAIWAN STRAIT
SE WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH HVY RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BEIBU GULF
NW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SW
WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG RAINSTORM VIS GOOD TO POOR=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S BACK SW
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
RAINSTORM VIS POOR=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 32 TO 41M/S GUSTS 37 TO 46M/S BACK S
WINDS 25 TO 32M/S GUSTS 29 TO 36M/S SEA STATE
HIGH TO VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS
POOR TO MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 32 TO 41M/S GUSTS 37 TO 46M/S BACK SE
WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE
VERY HIGH TO VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG LIGHT
RAIN VIS POOR TO MOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS BACK S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS BACK S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
W WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO
12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
SE WINDS BACK NE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS
E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO
12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK NE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
NE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S VEER E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA
STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
MALACCA STRAIT
W WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S VEER SW
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
TO ROUGH HVY RAIN VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IN NORTH CAROLINA

⚠️ FLASH #FLOOD EMERGENCY for #Craven, #Carteret, #Pamlico, and #Jones counties. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!
#NorthCarolina #NC #NCwx #Florence #HurricaneFlorence #PDS #NWS #News
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Flash%20Flood%20Warning

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