Rodrigues /Mauritius /LaReunion /Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone #Eleven (11S) 082100Z position nr 15.2S 69.8E, moving W 05kt (JTWC) – Published 08 Mar 2017 2100z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Eleven (11S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 15.2S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 70.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 15.3S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 15.8S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 16.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 21.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 24.8S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 28.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
AND A 081732Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE PREVIOUSLY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081732Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING THE TIGHT LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.5-3.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SMALL BUT DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH TEMPS
OBSERVED NEAR 30C. SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT
THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH, STEERING TC 11S SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE TIME
BEING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S ARE CURRENTLY
PROVIDING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFF THE LLCC, AND
LIMITING POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AS UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REESTABLISHED BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC11S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWEST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND THE STEERING SHIFTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FOREWORD MOTION AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, WITH SOME INITIAL DISAGREEMENT OF
THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS 14 FEET. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 9/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 20 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(SIXTY TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DEGREES ZERO‘S)
DISPLACEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MIN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT ONLY: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO.: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
120H: 13 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
2.C COMMENTS:
T = 2.5, CI = 2.5
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS GENERALLY IMPROVING BUT IT IS
A VERY RECENT. THE N18 1416Z WATCH AGAIN PASS A CENTER EXPOSES A
WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND IT IS SINCE SHORTLY BEFORE 17Z ONLY ONE
BURST OF CONVECTION TAKES PLACE VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THE ASCAT PASS OF THE
EVENING CONFIRMS INTENSITY ANALYZED. IF THIS TREND IS CONSOLIDATING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL
WINDOW OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY
THE MINIMUM SE MOVED SLOWLY IN THE WEST BRANCH UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW/MEDIUM RIDGE
TROPOSPHERE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH EAST OF THE BASIN. TOMORROW NIGHT, THE
MODELS AVAILABLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO PREDICT A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES, WHICH CAUSES A
UNCERTAINTY AVERAGE WELL REPORTED BY THE DISPERSION OF THE FORECAST
OVERVIEW OF THE CEP. THIS WEEKEND, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER HIS
PATH ON THE SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED UP BYPASSING THIS RIDGE.
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE HAS ITS
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING ALTITUDE, WHICH MAKES FORECASTING
HARD INTENSITY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT, THE ASCENT OF A THALWEG
ALTITUDE FROM THE MIDDLE LATITUDES (WAVE SURGE OF)
ROSSBY) CAUSES THE APPEARANCE OF A SECTOR MODERATE CONSTRAINT
NORTH. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA, MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW IT TO LIMIT ITS
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVOURABLE, WITHOUT WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON BAROCLINIC NET DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE. IN THE PROCESS OF
WEEKEND WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE THALWEG OF ALTITUDE AND MAINTAINING
A GREAT DIFFERENCE POLAR, THE SYSTEM COULD BE

REINTENSIFIER.

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 7
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 13/03/2017 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.5 CI=2.5
LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE EST GLOBALEMENT EN AMELIORATION MAIS C’EST
TRES RECENT. LA PASS N18 DE 1416Z MONTRE ENCORE UN CENTRE EXPOSE A
L’OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, ET C’EST DEPUIS PEU AVANT 17Z QU’UN
BURST DE CONVECTION A LIEU TRES PRES DU CENTRE. LA PASS ASCAT DE LA
SOIREE CONFIRME L’INTENSITE ANALYSEE. SI CETTE TENDANCE SE CONSOLIDE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PROFITER DE LA PETITE
FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR S’INTENSIFIER PLUS
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
LE MINIMUM SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L’OUEST SOUS
L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES/MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LA PARTIE SUD-EST DU BASSIN. DEMAIN SOIR, LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD POUR PREVOIR UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD MAIS AVEC DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING, CE QUI PROVOQUE UNE
INCERTITUDE MOYENNE BIEN BALISEE PAR LA DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION
D’ENSEMBLE DU CEP. CE WEEK-END, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA
TRAJECTOIRE SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET
ACCELERER EN CONTOURNANT CETTE DORSALE.
LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND PARTICULIEREMENT SENSIBLE A SON
ENVIRONNEMENT, NOTAMMENT EN ALTITUDE, CE QUI REND LA PREVISION
D’INTENSITE DIFFICILE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, LA REMONTEE D’UN THALWEG
D’ALTITUDE DEPUIS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES (DEFERLEMENT D’ONDE DE
ROSSBY) PROVOQUE L’APPARITION D’UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR
NORD. SELON LES DERNIERES DONNEES MODELES, LE DEPLACEMENT
RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE LIMITER SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU SEIN DE CET ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE, SANS
INFLUENCE BAROCLINE NETTE DE LA DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, AVEC LA DISSIPATION DU THALWEG D’ALTITUDE ET LE MAINTIEN
D’UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE POLAIRE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE
REINTENSIFIER.

===========================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/1 March 08 2017 – 18:39:19 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/2 March 08 2017 – 18:35:46 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/3 March 08 2017 – 12:32:19 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 17:44:07 UTC
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 12:44:02 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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Mauritius/La Reunion: Tropical Storm CHEDZA 06S 181200Z: 22.9 S / 52.3 E, moving SE 8 at knots(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 180115 1520z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA 06

….. HEAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS. – RSMC LA REUNION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

chedza_sat

RSMC LA REUNION

chedza trajectoire

chedza sat anim

Bulletin Réunion
JOURNEE DU DIMANCHE 18

La Tempête tropicale CHEDZA était située à 16h à 360km a l Ouest-Sud-ouest des côtes réunionnaises et se déplace vers le sud-est à 15km/h.

Vigilance houle cyclonique d’ouest de 2.5m à 3 m sur les cotes Ouest et Sud en cours.

Flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest humide.
NUIT DU DIMANCHE 18 AU LUNDI 19
Les précipitions deviennent éparses sur l Est en début de nuit pour devenir plus fréquentes dans le Nord de l’île approximativement de St Leu à St Benoit en passant par le chef lieu en seconde partie de nuit .

Le vent de secteur Nord reste soutenu plus particulièrement sur les façades Nord-Ouest et Est ( 60 à 70km/h) et dans les hauts de la Réunion avec des rafales pouvant atteindre les 80 à 90 Km/h
LUNDI 19
Pris dans le flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest des averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest et Nord, ailleurs comme dans le sud sauvage le ciel est plus clément avec de belles éclaircies.

Au fil des heures l’instabilité se réactive et les nuages se développent dans l’intérieur.

Ces deniers débordent ensuite sur le sud sauvage où des averses sont alors attendues.

Le vent reste soutenue il souffle principalement sur les côtes Ouest et Est avec des rafales de 70 à 80km/h. Sur les hauteurs exposées, les rafales sont proches de 80 km/h.

La mer est agitée à forte au vent, une vigilance houle cyclonique d’Ouest est en cours de Champs-Borne à la Pointe de la Table en passant par St Leu, houle comprise entre 2. et 2.5 mètres soit 5 m pour les hauteurs maximales . Une houle de Sud-Est de 2.5 à 3 est egalement de mise sur les cotes Est et Sud .
MARDI 20
Poussées par un vent d’Ouest, quelques averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest, ailleurs c’est globalement du soleil. Au fil des heures, les nuages se développent dans

l’intérieure de l’ile et des débordement nuageux concernent le sud de la Réunion ou quelques averses peuvent se produire

Vent d ouest modéré avec des rafales sur les cote Sud-Ouest.

houle de Sud Ouest de 2 a 2.5M de la Pointe de Aigrette à la Pointe de la Table.
MERCREDI 21
Belle journée, la masse d’air s’assèche le soleil l’emporte. les développement nuageux de l apres-midi restent limites.

vent de Sud-Ouest faible à modéré le matin, tournant Sud en fin de journée.

Houle d ouest sud ouest de 2 à 2.5m

Reunion Bulletin
DAY SUNDAY 18

Tropical Storm CHEDZA was located at 16h to al 360km west-south-west coast of Reunion and moves southeast at 15km / h.

Vigilance westerly cyclonic swell from 2.5m to 3m on South West Coasts and in progress.

RSS wet North-West.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY 18 19

The rush become scattered over the East early night in order to become more common in the north of the island approximately St Leu in St Benoit through the main town in the second part of the night.

North wind sector remains particularly strong on Northwest and east facades (60 to 70km / h) and the heights of the Meeting with gusts to 80 to 90 km / h

Monday 19

Caught in the flow of North-West showers are possible early in the day on the west facade and north as elsewhere in the wild south the sky is partly cloudy skies with.

As the hours instability reactivates and clouds develop in the interior.

These funds then spill over into the wild south, where rainfall is then expected.

The wind remains strong it blows mainly on the west and east coast with gusts of 70 to 80 km / h. On the exposed heights, the bursts are near 80 km / h.

The sea is rough with strong wind, vigilance cyclone swell West is being Champs Terminal Point Table via St Leu, swell between 2 and 2.5 m or 5 m for the maximum heights . A Southeast swell from 2.5 to 3 is also placing on the east and south coasts.

Tuesday 20

Driven by a west wind, some rain showers are possible early in the day on the west facade, it is also generally the sun. The hours, the clouds develop in

interior of the island and cloudy infinity concern southern Meeting or a few showers may occur

West of moderate wind with gusts on the South West Coast.

Southwest swell 2 to 2.5M of Pointe Heron Pointe de la Table.

Wednesday 21

Beautiful day, the mass of air dries the sun wins. development of cloudy after noon are limits.

Southwest winds weak to moderate in the morning, turning south in the afternoon.

Houle southwest of West 2 to 2.5m

Bulletin du 18 JANVIER à 16H45 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature des systèmes dépressionnaires tropicaux présents sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE EX-BANSI.
Pression estimée au centre: 960 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 25.8 Sud / 78.3 Est.
(vingt cinq degres huit sud et soixante dix-huit degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 2340 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST.
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 46 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 33.0 Sud / 90.9 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 38.1 Sud / 104.1 Est.
————————————————-
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHEDZA.
Pression estimée au centre: 982 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 22.9 Sud / 52.3 Est.
(vingt deux degres neuf sud et cinquante deux degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 360 km au secteur: OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 15 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 25.3 Sud / 53.1 Est.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 27.8 Sud / 54.6 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 21/01 à 16h locales, par 30.6 Sud / 57.9 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 22/01 à 16h locales, par 35.4 Sud / 63.1 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 23/01 à 16h locales, par 45.5 Sud / 78.5 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 23h local

Bulletin January 18 at 4:45 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical storm systems present on the southwestern Indian Ocean.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BANSI.
Estimated central pressure 960 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time 25.8 South / 78.3 East.
(twenty five eight degrees south and seventy-eight degrees is three).
Distance from Reunion coast: 2340 km to the sector: EAST SOUTHEAST.
Displacement: EAST SOUTHEAST, 46 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 33.0 South / 90.9 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 38.1 South / 104.1 East.
————————————————-
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA.
Estimated central pressure 982 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time: 22.9 South / 52.3 East.
(twenty two nine degrees fifty-two degrees south and three east).
Distance from Reunion coast 360 km sector: WEST-SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTHEAST 15 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 25.3 South / 53.1 East.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 27.8 South / 54.6 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 21/01 at 16h local by 30.6 South / 57.9 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 22/01 at 16h local by 35.4 South / 63.1 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Centre positioned on 23/01 at 16h local by 45.5 South / 78.5 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next newsletter to 23h local

ZCZC 453
WTIO30 FMEE 181306

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CHEDZA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 52.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 350 SW: 190 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/21 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/22 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/01/23 12 UTC: 45.5 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS UNCONVENTIONAL AND MENTIONED INTENSITY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK TECHNIQ
UE THAT IS NOT ADAPTED ANY-MORE FOR THIS KIND OF SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIG
H PRESSURES.
IN THE WAKE OF CHEZA, IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS EXIST AND OCCUR LOCALLY H
EAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS.
CHEDZA KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARDS TOWARDS A TRANSIENT MID
-LEVEL TROUGH.
ON THIS PATH, FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS LOW TO MODER
ATE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD ALLOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

No warning

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 181240

WTIO22 FMEE 181240
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BANSI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 78.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 430 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 620 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 710 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
29.1 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
33.0 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VII

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S 161200Z POSITION nr 21.6 S / 66.4 E, moving SE 16 knots ((RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 160115 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

si201505_5day

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bansi

KML Google Earth

WTIO31 FMEE 161237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20142015
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 926 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SO: 640 NO: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 150
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2015 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
24H: 17/01/2015 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2015 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2015 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
60H: 19/01/2015 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
72H: 19/01/2015 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2015 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 21/01/2015 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5+ ET CI=6.5+
LA SIGNATURE DVORAK S’EST DEGRADEE DEPUIS LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC
UN OEIL DE PLUS DE 45 MN DE DIAMETRE. L’IMAGE MICRO-ONDE F15 DE 1026Z
MONTRE UNE EROSION DU MUR DE L’OEIL COTE OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE MEME
SI LE CI DVORAK EST A 6.5+, L’INTENSITE DU VENT MAX A ETE RETROGRADEE A 110
KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE CES ELEMENTS. BANSI CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER
REGULIEREMENT ET RAPIDEMENT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST.
BANSI DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L’EST-SUD-EST DANS LE
COURANT DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU PLONGER VERS LE SUD-EST.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME PASSE MAINTENANT AU SUD DE LA
DORSALE D’ALTITUDE ET UN TALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SE RAPPROCHE
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. PAR CONSEQUENT LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT ET EN RAISON DE LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS 25S, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACQUERIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES HYBRIDES POST-
TROPICALES DIMANCHE, PUIS EXTRATROPICALES A PARTIR DE LUNDI OU MARDI.
JUSQUE MARDI, LES VENTS NE VONT S’ATTENUER QUE LENTEMENT AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION. MERCREDI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT

ZCZC 570
WTIO30 FMEE 161237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 926 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SW: 640 NW: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/17 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/17 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.5+
THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EYE
DIAMETER MORE LARGE THAN 45 NM. 1026Z F15 MW PICTURE SHOWS AN ERODED
EYE-WALL WESTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, CI IS AT 6.5+ DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINT, BUT INTENSITY OF THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED AT
110 KT. BANSI CONTINUES TO MOVE REGULARLY AND RAPIDLY ON A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
TONIGHT BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD.
WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRA-TROPICAL FROM
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNTIL TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP RAPIDLY.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh0515

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_160530sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 20.0S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 65.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 23.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 24.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 25.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 31.6S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES TC BANSI HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AS THE EYE HAS
CONTRACTED DOWN TO 32NM AS THE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AND DEFINED. HOWEVER, A 160442Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE OBSERVED IN THE MSI ANIMATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP
WHILE KNES INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE AS WIDELY DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TC 05S
IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BE ACCELERATED BY TAU 36
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72
WHICH WILL COMPLETE ETT. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk

See:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201505S.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 151223

WTIO20 FMEE 161228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI) 926 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 200 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 300
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 345 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 420 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VIII_S

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Tropical Cyclone 21S #IMELDA TD/SS-TS 160900Z 21.2S 62.9E, moving SE at 05 knots (JTWC) 160413 0950z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: metservice.intnet.mu)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

METEO FRANCE LA REUNION

BULLETIN DU 16 AVRIL A 10H22 LOCALES:

IL N’Y A PAS D’ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE MENACE CYCLONIQUE N’EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES
**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L’OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-IMELDA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA
POSITION LE 16 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 21.0 SUD / 62.9 EST
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES : 735 KM AU SECTEUR: EST
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST A 11 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 17/04 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 22.0 S / 61.8 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 18/04 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 23.0 S / 55.4 E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D’INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

————————————————-

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN VERS 17H LOCALES.

 

 

 

BULLETIN OF 16 APRIL 10:22 LOCAL:

THERE IS NO ALERT DURING A # lareunion AND NO THREAT CYCLONE IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
**************************************************

NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN

EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA
PRESSURE ESTIMATED CENTER: 999 HPA
POSITION ON 16 APRIL TO 10 HOURS LOCAL: SOUTH 21.0 / 62.9 IS
(TWENTY ONE ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE TWO DEGREES EAST)

DISTANCE FROM COAST Reunion: 735 KM AREA: IS
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 11 KM / H

THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

VACUUM FILLING UP,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 17/04 BY A LOCAL 10H: 22.0 S / 61.8 E

VACUUM FILLING UP,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 18/04 BY A LOCAL 10H: 23.0 S / 55.4 E

WARNING: THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE PREVIOUS TO CONSIDER WITH EXTREME CAUTION IN VIEW OF THEIR UNCERTAINTY. THEY RELATE TO THE CENTRE OF THE PHENOMENON, WITHOUT REGARD TO ITS EXTENSION.

————————————————-

THIS BULLETIN IS NOW COMPLETE.
NEXT BULLETIN TO LOCAL 17H.

 

 

 

RSMC (Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre ) LA REUNION

 

 

 

ZCZC 963

WTIO30 FMEE 160622 CCA

***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/10/20122013

1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-IMELDA)

2.A POSITION 2013/04/16 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 62.9 E

(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL

NINE DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

34 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN

1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2013/04/16 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

24H: 2013/04/17 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2013/04/17 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2013/04/18 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2013/04/18 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

THE STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (25KT ACCORDING TO

CIMSS DATA) HAS COMPLETELY BLOWN OUT THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE CENTER COMPLETELY EXPOSED APPEARS CLEARLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY.

SYSTEM KEEPS ON RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE

SOUTH-WESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12H UNDERGOING THE

STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LEVELS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL BELT.

ON THIS RAPID WESTWARDS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

MORE RAPIDLY WITH VERY UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (COOLER

SST AND STRONG VWS).

THE RESIDUAL LOW MAY PASS SOUTH OF MAURITIUS ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTH

OF LA REUNION ISLAND ON THURSDAY.

SYSTEM SHOULD BEYOND TAKE A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK AND DISSIPATE.=

NNNN

(Image: metservice.intnet.mu) Synoptic Chart

 

 

 

MARITIME

 

 

 

ZCZC 961

WTIO20 FMEE 160622 CCA

***************CORRECTIVE**************

SECURITE

NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/04/2013 AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 042/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/04/2013 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-IMELDA) 999 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 62.9 E

(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND

SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE

SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, 25 KT, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WI

THIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FOR

CE WINDS 35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT FROM 150 TO 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN

QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2013/04/16 AT 18 UTC:

21.4 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

24H, VALID 2013/04/17 AT 06 UTC:

22.0 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.

NNNN

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

WTXS31 PGTW 160900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNING NR 021//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNING NR 021

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

160600Z — NEAR 21.0S 62.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 135 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 62.9E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z — 21.7S 63.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:

160900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 62.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (IMELDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM

EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A

FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS, BUT WITH

NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT 160431Z ASCAT

PASS REVEALS CENTRAL WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT

INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM PLAINE CORAIL, MAURITIUS INDICATE WIND

SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTING

THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES

INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), CURRENTLY AT HIGH LEVELS

(GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS), HAS BEEN DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. IN

ASSOCIATION WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), THE VWS

HAS LED TC 21S TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE VWS AND SST VALUES WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE

UNTIL THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY DISSIPATES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON

THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM

WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 21 FEET.//

NNNN

 

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Imelda

 

 

 

(wunderground.com)
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-

 

06 GMT 04/06/13 10.9S 72.6E 40 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/06/13 10.7S 71.5E 40 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/07/13 10.6S 70.5E 40 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/07/13 11.2S 68.2E 45 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/08/13 10.9S 65.2E 45 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/08/13 11S 63.4E 50 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/09/13 11.6S 61.2E 60 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/09/13 11.6S 59.5E 70 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/10/13 12S 58.4E 80 Category 1

18 GMT 04/10/13 12.3S 57.8E 100 Category 2

06 GMT 04/11/13 12.9S 57.9E 85 Category 1

18 GMT 04/11/13 13.3S 58.6E 65 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/12/13 14.1S 58.9E 50 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/12/13 15.3S 59.4E 40 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/13/13 16.1S 59.4E 40 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/13/13 16.7S 58.7E 60 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/14/13 16.7S 58.7E 60 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/14/13 17.2S 59.4E 70 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/14/13 18.6S 61.0E 85 Category 1

06 GMT 04/15/13 19.6S 61.8E 75 Category 1

18 GMT 04/15/13 20.4S 62.2E 65 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/16/13 21S 62.9E 40 Tropical Storm

 

 

10 dead as Haruna lashes Madagascar

(See bottom of page)

(Image: mtotec.com) Satellite imagery / Image satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia Moambique) MESSIR-NET IR SAT

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map

Service Mto Madagasikara

Bulletin cyclonique
de MADAGASCAR
Nom: HARUNA Date et heure : 22-02-2013 16:00 locale
TYPE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
Position en coordonnes gographique LE CYCLONE TROPICAL HARUNA A ATTERRI SUR LES COTES SUD-OUEST MALAGASY DANS LE DISTRICT DE MOROMBE AU NIVEAU DE CAP SAINT-VINCENT.
Position par rapport à un lieu HARUNA A TRAVERSE LES DISTRCTS DE MOROMBE ET TOLIARA OU IL SE TROUVE A 50KM A LEST DE LA VILLE DE TOLIARA
Pression du vent estim près du centre
Vitesse du vent estim près du centre Vent moyen 105KM/H
Rafales 150KM/H
Dplacement observ LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN PASSANT PAR LES DISTRCITS DE TOLIARA, BETIOKY-ATSIMO ET BEKILY POUR SORTIR EN MER AU NIVEAU DE DISTRICT DAMBOVOMBE LE SAMEDI MATIN
COMMENTAIRES
DES PLUIES TORENTIELLES SERONT ENCORE ATTENDUES DANS LES REGIONS CONCERNEES ET LA MER EST TRES GROSSE AUSSI LA MONTEE DES EAUX DE LA MER (FORTE HOULE) SUR TERRE EST-ELLE FORTEMENT A CRAINDRE SUR LES COTES SUD DE LILE
AVIS D’AVERTISSEMENT AVIS DE MENACE AVIS DE DANGER IMMINENT AVIS D’ALERTES LEVEES
MAHABO, IKALAMAVONY, FIANARANTSOA I-II, AMBALAVAO, IKONGO, IVOHIBE, VONDROZO, MANAKARA, VOHIPENO ET FARAFANGANA. MANJA , MORONDAVA, ANKAZOABO, BEROROHA, IHOSY, BETROKA, IAKORA, MIDONGY-ATSIMO, VANGAINDRANO ET BEFOTAKA. MOROMBE, TOLIARA I-II, AMPANIHY, BETIOKY-ATSIMO, SAKARAHA, BENENITRA, BEKILY, BELOHA, TSIHOMBE, AMBOVOMBE, AMBOASARY-ATSIMO ET TAOLAGNARO..

BULLETIN DU 24 FEVRIER A 16H35 LOCALES:

IL N’Y A PAS D’ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE MENACE CYCLONIQUE N’EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES
**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L’OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE EX-HARUNA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
POSITION LE 24 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 26.9 SUD / 54.2 EST
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES : 635 KM AU SECTEUR: SUD-SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST A 31 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 25/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 26.6 S / 58.4 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 26/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 25.6 S / 60.0 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 27/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 23.8 S / 58.6 E

SE DISSIPANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 28/02 A 16H LOCALES PAR: 22.1 S / 53.3 E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D’INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

————————————————-

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF REINTENSIFICATION.

BULETIN DARI 24 04:35 Februari LOKAL:

ADA ALERT NO SELAMA A lareunion # DAN TIDAK ADA ANCAMAN CYCLONE ADALAH DIRENCANAKAN UNTUK 72 JAM BERIKUTNYA
**************************************************

SIFAT INI SISTEM TEKANAN RENDAH TROPIS OVER THE SELATAN-BARAT INDIAN OCEAN

Subtropis DEPRESI EX-Haruna
TEKANAN ESTIMASI CENTER: 995 HPA
POSISI pada 24 Februari UNTUK 16 JAM LOKAL: 26,9 SELATAN / TIMUR 54,2
(DUA PULUH ENAM DERAJAT SELATAN DAN LIMA PULUH SEMBILAN EMPAT DUA DERAJAT TIMUR)

JARAK DARI COAST Reunion: AREA KM 635: SELATAN-BARAT
GERAKAN: TIMUR-TENGGARA AT 31 KM / H

BERIKUT POSISI DAN INTENSITAS SISTEM TEKANAN RENDAH DIBERIKAN SELAMA BEBERAPA HARI BERIKUTNYA:

Subtropis DEPRESI,
PUSAT POSISI ON 25/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 26,6 S / E 58,4

VACUUM FILLING UP,
PUSAT POSISI ON 26/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 25,6 S / E 60,0

VACUUM FILLING UP,
PUSAT POSISI ON 27/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 23,8 S / E 58,6

Menghilang,
PUSAT POSISI ON 28/02 16H OLEH LOKAL: 22,1 S / E 53,3

PERINGATAN: THE TRACK PRAKIRAAN DAN INTENSITAS ADALAH SEBELUMNYA UNTUK DIPERTIMBANGKAN DENGAN PERHATIAN EXTREME DI VIEW OF KETIDAKPASTIAN MEREKA. MEREKA BERHUBUNGAN DENGAN PUSAT FENOMENA THE, TANPA MEMPERHATIKAN EXTENSION ITS.

————————————————-

BULETIN INI ADALAH SEKARANG COMPLETE.
TERAKHIR PERNYATAAN INI SISTEM KECUALI REINTENSIFICATION.

ZCZC 850
WTIO30 FMEE 230658
ZCZC 048
WTIO30 FMEE 241243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/9/20122013
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HARUNA)
2.A POSITION 2013/02/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 54.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/02/25 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/02/25 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/02/26 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2013/02/26 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2013/02/27 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2013/02/27 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/28 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
AMSU CROSS SECTION OF BRIGHTNESS TEMP ANOMALIES SHOW THAT THE WARM CORE ASSOCIATED WITH EX-HARUNA
IS BECOMING SHALLOWER AND LESS SYMETRICAL. THE SYSTEM IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HARUNA IS NOW RACING EASTWARDS UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBU
ILDING IN ITS SOUTH-WEST AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LOW TO M
ID-LEVEL MID-LAT TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF EX-HARUNA. ON AND AFTER MONDAY LATE, AS
THE MID-LAT LOW BYPASS THE SYSTEM, THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE TO THE LEFT ON THE NORT
H-EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.IT IS THEN EXPECTED ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY TO TRACK GLOBAL
LY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEFORE DISSIP
ATION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. FURTHER INFORMATIONS WILL BE PROVIDED IN TH
E AWIO20 BULLETIN DAILY ISSUED AT 12Z.
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 850
WTIO24 FMEE 231823
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2013
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/02/2013 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HARUNA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 49.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE
EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 MN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, LOCALLY
REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2013/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
25.8 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2013/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
26.4 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Graphic (Click image for source)
kml icon Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 27.2S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 110 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 54.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 27.2S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 27.0S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 241223Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM BUT THE
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON A 240822Z OSCAT PASS SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 16S IS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A JET MAX SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHILE
WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 16S
WILL TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE AFTER TAU 36 AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(RUSTY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Haruna
(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-
00 GMT 02/19/13 20S 41.2E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/19/13 21.3S 40.8E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 02/20/13 21.4S 40.7E 65 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/20/13 22.1S 40.7E 80 Category 1
00 GMT 02/21/13 22.5S 41.4E 110 Category 2
12 GMT 02/21/13 22.3S 41.9E 115 Category 3
00 GMT 02/22/13 22.2S 43.0E 105 Category 2
12 GMT 02/22/13 23S 43.9E 90 Category 1
00 GMT 02/23/13 24.3S 46.3E 70 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/23/13 25.4S 48.6E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 02/24/13 26.2S 51.0E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/24/13 27.2S 54.1E 45 Tropical Storm

10 dead as Haruna lashes Madagascar

A tropical cyclone has hit the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar. Cyclone Haruna, with its wind and rain, has killed ten people and destroyed the homes of nearly 3,000 others.

Disaster teams have been working to repair the damage wrought by the cyclone which struck on Friday morning.

Even though it left the island 24 hours after it began, torrential rain has continued to pound part of the island, along with strong gusts of wind.

Cyclone Haruna has now been downgraded to a tropical storm. But, it is still expected that a lot of rain will fall in southern Madagascar in the coming couple of days. The south of the island took the brunt of the cyclone. The city of Morombe, which is in the south-west, was almost destroyed.

Sunday, 24 February, 2013 at 06:09 UTC RSOE

 

Tropical Cyclone 13S (#Felleng)(SS-TS) 010900Z nr 21.7S 50.8E, moving SSE at 06 Kts(JTWC) – 010213 1210z

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)
(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)
(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z — NEAR 21.3S 50.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 50.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 23.0S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 24.7S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 26.6S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 28.2S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 31.6S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 35.8S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 50.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
WEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE DIURNALLY FLARING CONVECTION, BUT DESPITE
THE STRONG TO MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION. A 010433Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO REVEAL A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
BANDING CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 60 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 60 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, DUE TO THE
SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO REVEAL THE STRONG TO MODERATE VWS WHILE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTLFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE (STR), POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND APPROACHES THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IS OFFSET BY THE
INCREASINGLY STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH
SHARPLY DROPS BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS POLEWARD OF 30S. THE SYSTEM
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU
48 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
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Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Felleng

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-
112 GMT 01/26/13 12.9S 65.5E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 01/27/13 13.6S 63.9E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 01/27/13 13.6S 62.3E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 01/28/13 13.2S 59.9E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 01/28/13 13.3S 58.4E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 01/29/13 13.5S 56.5E 75 Category 1
12 GMT 01/29/13 14.1S 54.9E 105 Category 2
00 GMT 01/30/13 14.7S 53.8E 120 Category 3
12 GMT 01/30/13 16.2S 52.6E 135 Category 4
18 GMT 01/30/13 17S 52.2E 120 Category 3
06 GMT 01/31/13 18.2S 51.1E 100 Category 2
18 GMT 01/31/13 20S 50.5E 80 Category 1
06 GMT 02/01/13 21.3S 50.7E 70 Tropical Storm

(Credit: wunderground.com)

==================================================

(Image: meteo.fr) TC trajectoire (Click image for source)

BULLETIN DU 01 FEVRIER A 13H01 LOCALES:

PRE-ALERTE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS.
**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL MENACANT LA REUNION:

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE FELLENG

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 973 HPA
POSITION LE 01 FEVRIER A 13 HEURES LOCALES:
21.5 SUD / 50.7 EST
(VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES :
470 KM AU SECTEUR: OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 11 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 02/02 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 24.8 S / 51.1 E

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 03/02 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 28.1 S / 52.7 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 04/02 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 31.4 S / 53.8 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 05/02 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 36.1 S / 57.0 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 06/02 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 41.1 S / 66.9 E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D’INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT
A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR
INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU
PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

LES PROCHAINES PREVISIONS COMPLETES SUR CE SYSTEME SERONT ELABOREES DANS 3 HEURES.

————————————————-

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. REACTUALISATION A 16H30

 

-

 

BULLETIN FROM 01 FEBRUARY TO LOCAL 1:01 p.m.:

PRE-ALERT CYCLONE DURING.
**************************************************

NATURE OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THREATENING THE MEETING:

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM Felleng

PRESSURE ESTIMATED CENTER: 973 HPA
POSITION ON 01 FEBRUARY TO 13 HOURS LOCAL:
SOUTH 21.5 / 50.7 IS
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN IS)

DISTANCE FROM COAST Reunion:
470 KM AREA: WEST
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KM / H

THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
CENTRE POSITIONS ON 02/02 10H BY LOCAL: 24.8 S / 51.1 E

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 03/02 10H BY LOCAL: 28.1 S / 52.7 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
CENTRE POSITIONS ON 04/02 10H BY LOCAL: 31.4 S / 53.8 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 05/02 10H BY LOCAL: 36.1 S / 57.0 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 06/02 10H BY LOCAL: 41.1 S / 66.9 E

WARNING: THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE PREVIOUS
CONSIDER WITH EXTREME CAUTION IN VIEW OF THEIR
UNCERTAINTY. THEY RELATE TO THE CENTRE OF
PHENOMENON, WITHOUT REGARD TO ITS EXTENSION.

FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETED IN 3 HOURS WORKED.

————————————————-

THIS BULLETIN IS NOW COMPLETE. UPDATING A 4:30 p.m.

 

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at31 Jan, 201318:00 GMT GMT

Tropical Cyclone FELLENG (13S) currently located near 20.0 S 50.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/