Mexico: Hurricane Patricia 20E CAT1: Tropical Storm Warning for Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas (NHC) – Updated 24 Oct 2015 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Patricia 20E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083407W5_NL_sm 24a

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM…SSW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM ENE OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). Patricia is
forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over
northern and northeastern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and
Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm later this morning,
and dissipate tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the warning area and over inland areas, especially in
higher elevations, near the center through this morning.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely
to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. During the
past 24 hours, a rainfall total of 10.25 inches (260 mm) has been
reported at Nevado De Colima in Jalisco state.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside but
will remain above normal through late today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 20E (Patricia) Warning #17
Issued at 24/0400Z

JTWC 24

20E_232345sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 240400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240000Z — NEAR 19.6N 104.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 104.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.7N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 25.0N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 104.3W.
HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 19E (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 24 Oct, 2015 3:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 20.2 N 104.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Zacatecas (22.8 N, 102.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 24

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 240832

WTPZ25 KNHC 240832
TCMEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WEST OF MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 250SE 60SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

More warnings here: METAREA XII

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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UK: RAF Search & Rescue Role Ends After 74 Years – Published 04 Oct 2015 1925z (GMT/UTC)

RAF Search & Rescue Role Ends After 74 Years

PROUD RECORD: 34,025 Call-outs completed and 26,853 lives saved

The RAF's final operational search and rescue sortie comes to an end at RMB Chivenor at 12.07 on 4 October 2015. (Image: RAF)

The RAF’s final operational search and rescue sortie comes to an end at RMB Chivenor at 12.07 on 4 October 2015. (Image: RAF)

More than 74 years of continuous life-saving operations by the Royal Air Force in the UK came to an end at 1.00pm today, when the Chivenor duty search and rescue crew was formally relieved from its standby commitment by the United Kingdom Aeronautical Rescue Coordination Centre. The finale for RAF Search and Rescue in the UK was ‘business as usual’ with a final search and rescue operation taking place in the early hours of this morning.

The crew of the RAF's final operational UK search and rescue sortie: (left to right) Wing Commander 'Sparky' Dunlop (captain and Officer Commanding 22 Squadron), Sergeant Dan Allanson, Sergeant Russ Jenkins and Flight Lieutenant 'PJ' Howard. (Image: RAF)

The crew of the RAF’s final operational UK search and rescue sortie: (left to right) Wing Commander ‘Sparky’ Dunlop (captain and Officer Commanding 22 Squadron), Sergeant Dan Allanson, Sergeant Russ Jenkins and Flight Lieutenant ‘PJ’ Howard. (Image: RAF)

Chivenor is the last of the RAF’s 6 search and rescue bases to hand over responsibility for helicopter search and rescue provision to Bristow Helicopters Ltd.

Official search and rescue statistics show that since 1983 the RAF’s 6 units completed 34,025 callouts and rescued 26,853 persons in distress.

The final RAF crew to hold operational search and rescue standby commitment in the UK: (left to right) Sergeant Doug Bowden, Flight Lieutenant Ayla Holdom, Flight Lieutenant Christian 'Taff' Wilkins and Flight Sergeant Chris Scurr.(Image: RAF)

The final RAF crew to hold operational search and rescue standby commitment in the UK: (left to right) Sergeant Doug Bowden, Flight Lieutenant Ayla Holdom, Flight Lieutenant Christian ‘Taff’ Wilkins and Flight Sergeant Chris Scurr.(Image: RAF)

Other Reports

BBC

Chivenor hands over air rescue services to private firm

AgustaWestland AW189 in Coastguard livery operated by Bristow

AgustaWestland AW189 in Coastguard livery operated by Bristow

An RAF air rescue team based at Chivenor in north Devon has handed over its role to a private firm.

Bristow took over from the military at RMB Chivenor at 13:00 BST and will fly out of St Athan in south Wales.

The handover was delayed by four days because Bristow said it needed extra time.

Aberdeen-based Bristow won a 10-year contract to take over the service, which is being privatised around the UK.

The £1.6bn search and rescue deal with Bristow ends 70 years of search and rescue from the RAF and Royal Navy.

END

Well done RAF! – Goaty 🙂

Related:

UK Search & Rescue helicopters to be cut by nearly 50% – 300313 1650z

UK Government plan to close 50% of UK Coastguard Maritime Rescue Co-ordination Centres – Updated 07 Feb 2013 0001Z: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2012/12/19/uk-government-plan-to-close-50-of-uk-coastguard-maritime-rescue-co-ordination-centres-published-23-aug-2012-2310z/

Privatising Search and Rescue: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2013/02/07/5765/

Could this be the coalition government’s biggest cock-up yet?: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2012/09/29/3435/

Support flaring for Clyde Coastguard, Scotland – Published 03 Sept 2012 1440Z: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/support-flaring-for-clyde-coastguard-scotland-published-03-sept-2012-1440z/

Bermuda/ Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Joaquin CAT2 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W, moving NNE 15 knots (NHC FL) – Updated 04 OCT 2015 1705z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin

(CATEGORY 2Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Hurricane Warning for BERMUDA – storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Hurricane Warning

Updated: 11:30 am Sunday, October 04, 2015

Additional Information:

Hurricane force winds are expected to occur for a period during Sunday evening, especially in the west and over elevated, exposed areas. Please refer to latest Tropical Update Information.
Hurricane Warning
A warning that one or both of the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles in 36 hours or less: (a) average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) (74 mph) or higher; (b) dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force.

Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Fred Byrley

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

145216W5_NL_sm 4

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will
pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda
tonight.

Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 31.0 N 66.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201511N 4

Other Reports

#SCwx #NCwx #SC #NC #SAR #Flood #SevereWx #News/ Historic, life-taking #flooding in #SouthCarolina – many rescues rptd

Even though #Hurricane #Joaquin is tracking away from the United States, torrential rainfall continues to pound the #EastCoast. Heavy rain has brought historic, life-threatening flooding in many locations in South Carolina, including in #Charleston and #Columbia, where numerous rescues have been reported. Into Monday, a feed of rich tropical moisture from the #Atlantic will continue to unleash heavy rainfall on the Southeast, especially in parts of South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina. Gov. Nikki Haley urged the residents of South Carolina to stay safe, saying that the amount of rain in the low country was at its highest level in a 1,000 years and noted that the #CongareeRiver was at its highest level since 1936. In eastern South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina, rainfall totals are predicted to range from 12 to 24 inches, nearly half of the normal rainfall for an entire year. President #Obama has already declared a state of emergency in South Carolina and ordered federal aid to help state and local efforts. Rain and flood warnings remained in effect for many parts of the East Coast on Sunday. While much of the torrential rainfall was centered in the #Carolinas, coastal communities as far as #NewJersey were feeling the effects of unrelenting rainfall. In New Jersey, storms dislodged an entire house from its pilings in a low-lying area of #MiddleTownship, according to NBC New York. Flood watches and warnings are in effect in parts of New Jersey, as well as #Delaware, #Maryland and #Virginia. At least 5 people have died on the East Coast since the severe weather began. Of the three weather-related deaths in South Carolina, two were motorists who lost control of their cars and the third was a pedestrian hit by a car. Take a look at photos of the unfolding devastation from the torrential rains and powerful wind gusts.

Monday, 05 October, 2015 at 12:23 (12:23 PM) UTC RSOE

See also https://www.windyty.com/?23.624,-73.795,6

Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog

Thousand-Year Rains Possible in Carolinas; Joaquin Headed North

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 4:39 PM GMT on October 02, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin continued to lash the Bahamas on Friday morning as it turned north on a course expected to keep it well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, several days of coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur from New Jersey to North Carolina, and extremely heavy rain could produce dangerous impacts in South Carolina. It was a long night of screaming winds, pounding waves, and lashing rains for residents of the Central Bahama Islands, where dangerous Hurricane Joaquin maintained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph winds. The eyewall of Joaquin affected Crooked Island/Acklins Island (population 600), and Long Island (population 3,000) for many hours, and no doubt damage is heavy to extreme on those islands. Joaquin has turned to the north, as seen on microwave satellite animations, and as the storm plows northwards at 3 – 6 mph on Friday, San Salvador Island (population 900) will likely feel eyewall winds. The Hurricane Hunters made multiple passes through the hurricane Friday morning, finding that the central pressure had gradually risen from 935 mb to 939 mb. The size of the eye has been fluctuating considerably, and the Hurricane Hunters noted a secondary maxima of winds away from the eyewall, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle may be ready to begin. These cycles that lead to a collapse of the inner eyewall, followed by a temporary weakening as a new outer eyewall is established. Wind shear continued to be in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, on Friday morning, and visible and infrared satellite loops showed that Joaquin continued to maintain a formidable appearance. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has now has two impressive upper-level outflow channels, one to the northwest, and one to the southeast. Ocean temperatures in the region remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F). These conditions should allow Joaquin to maintain at least Category 3 strength until Saturday.


Figure 1. Lightning flashes in one of Hurricane Joaquin’s spiral bands in this nighttime image taken in the early morning hours of October 2, 2015 from the International Space Station. The lights of Miami are visible in the upper left. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly, ISS.


Figure 2.  GOES-13 visible image of Hurricane Joaquin taken at 8:45 am EDT October 2, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Forecast for Joaquin
Joaquin is finally embarking on its long-awaited turn toward the north, and the Bahamas are likely the only land areas that will feel a direct impact from the storm. Microwave satellite animations on Friday morning showed the convective core of Joaquin shifting toward the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is now streaming toward the northwest, some of it becoming entrained in the frontal system off the East Coast.

The 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) computer model runs continued to lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions inched slightly westward from their previous tracks, bringing Joaquin a bit closer to Cape Cod through a subtle left swing in its path. The 06Z GFS run shifted back toward the east, well away from New England, and the 12Z GFS run also remained far offshore. A slight northward bend in the otherwise northeastward track remains in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions, as noted in the 11:00 am EDT forecast discussion from NHC. The ECMWF’s 00Z Friday ensemble runs were quite closely clustered around the offshore track, with only a couple of its 50 members suggesting the potential for a New England landfall. In contrast, more than a third of the 00Z and 06Z GEFS ensemble members continue to indicate the possibility of a SC/NC landfall, although the operational GFS model has not shown such a solution for some time. Among other major models, the Canadian GEM and the U.S. NAM (including the 12Z Friday NAM ran) also point toward an East Coast landfall, but take heed: these are historically among the least-reliable track models, so we would be wise to heavily discount them in favor of the GFS and ECMWF.


Figure 3. GFS ensemble members from the GEFS run on 06Z Friday, October 2, lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin as depicted in the official NHC forecast, although a few members still bring Joaquin along a looping onshore path near the U.S. East Coast. On the right-hand side are the ensembles’ projected tracks for Invest 90L. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

The official NHC forecast track as of 11:00 am EDT Friday keeps Joaquin hundreds of miles away from the U.S. East Coast, and NHC has enough confidence in this track that the “key points” section of its latest forecast discussion does not mention any potential for a U.S. landfall. The persistence of a few model outliers should not be a particular cause for concern at this point, but it does remind us that the upper-level features that will steer Joaquin are complex and dynamic. The two main influences on Joaquin’s track remain the upper low now cutting off over the Southeast U.S. and Invest 90L, located more than 1000 miles east of Joaquin. 90L originated from an upper-level low that has incorporated remnants of former Tropical Storm Ida. The NHC is giving 90L an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it drifts northward. The presence of 90L is creating a pathway for Joaquin to head northeast.

It appears that the strong jet stream diving around the Southeast low will kick eastward around the base of the low over the next couple of days, pushing the eastern part of the low offshore. Together with the influence of slowly developing 90L, this should keep Joaquin moving on a north to northeast track Friday and Saturday. As Figure 3 suggests, a more northeastward motion would lend confidence in the current expectation of an offshore track, while any significant component of motion toward the west today and Saturday would keep open the door for the far-less-likely possibility of a track hooking around the Southeast upper low. We’ll be watching the 12Z Friday model guidance closely and will have more on the forecast for Joaquin in our afternoon update.


Figure 4. Projected rainfall (in inches) for the 72-hour period from 12Z (8 am EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015, to Monday, October 5. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Epic rainfall likely for South Carolina
The latest 3-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for 10 – 15″ inches of rain for the majority of South Carolina, including the cities of Charleston and Columbia.

This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a “Predecessor Rain Event” (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. The PRE can develop well to the left or right of the eventual track of the tropical cyclone. Slow-moving Hurricane Joaquin is perfectly positioned to transport a strong low-level flow of super-moist tropical air that has water vapor evaporated from record-warm ocean waters north of the Bahamas westwards into the Southeast U.S. Once this moisture hits land, it will encounter a cut-off upper low pressure system aloft, with a surface front beneath it, which will lift the moist air, cooling it, and forcing epic amounts of rainfall to fall. The air will also be moving up in elevation from the coast to the Piedmont and Appalachians, which lifts the air and facilitates even more precipitation. Satellite imagery is already hinting at development of this connection of moisture between Joaquin and the Southeast low and frontal system.


Figure 5. The maximum rainfall predicted to fall in any 24-hour period during the 5-day period from 5 am EDT October 2 to 5 am EDT October 7, according to a high-resolution Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model run done by MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) In some areas of North Carolina and South Carolina, 24-hour rainfall amounts one would expect to fall only once in a thousand years are predicted. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/ or on their Facebook page.

Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur.  According to NOAA’s Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical “recurrence interval” of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 17.1″, 17.8″, and 14.2″, respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 14.8″, 15.9″, and 12.5″, respectively.

The storm to beat in South Carolina is Tropical Storm Jerry of 1995, which dumped up to 18.51″ of rain over a small region of Southwest SC. The storm to beat in nearby eastern North Carolina is Hurricane Floyd, which dumped prodigious amounts of rain in mid-September 1999, less than a month after Hurricane Dennis had drenched the region. Floyd produced a broad stripe of 15″ – 20″ rains, with a maximum total of 24.06″ at a site five miles north of Southport, NC (about 30 miles east of the NC/SC border). To get such widespread multi-day totals outside of a tropical cyclone would be a monumental feat.  Averaged across the state as a whole, the wettest three calendar months in South Carolina weather history are July 1916 (14.41″), September 1924 (13.16″), and September 1928 (12.70″). All of these were related to tropical cyclones passing through or near the state. If the NWS precipitation forecasts are in the right ballpark, then the first few days of October 2015 might approach or even exceed these all-time monthly records for the entire state–without any help from a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm!

Texas and Oklahoma have already notched their wettest months on record (by far) this past May, and Illinois had its second-wettest month on record in June. Our warming climate is making intense short-term rains (such as the highest 1-day totals) even heavier in many parts of the United States and the world, although less research has been done on trends in monthly rainfall.

For more on the science of extremely heavy rainfall, see Bob Henson’s May 2015 post, The Rains of May and the Science of Recurrence Intervals.


Figure 6. Projected maximum flood category for the 24-hour period from noon EDT Friday, October 2, through Saturday, October 3, 2015. The worst impacts today through Saturday are expected through the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Strong on-shore winds along the mid-Atlantic coast due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Joaquin and a strong high pressure system over the Northeast U.S. were creating storm surge heights of 2 – 3′ in many locations, and over 3′ on Virginia’s Delmarva Peninsula. Image credit: Hal Needham.

Long-duration coastal flooding under way
The combination of Hurricane Joaquin, the Southeast U.S. low, and a strong ridge well to the north is leading to an unusually prolonged period of steady onshore flow and high surf along the U.S. East Coast from New Jersey southward to North Carolina. The highest-impact coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected along the Virginia and Delaware coast, including Ocean City, MD, and the Hampton Roads area of VA, which includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wakefield, VA, NWS office is calling for several rounds of moderate to severe coastal flooding through the weekend. See the latest blog post from storm-surge expert Hal Needham for more details on this event.

We’ll have an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Sunday, October 04, 2015
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

**A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT** As Hurricane Joaquin’s makes its approach, winds increase tropical storm force to storm force this afternoon with a period of hurricane force winds, especially in the west, this evening into the night. Joaquin’s closest point of approach remains near 60 miles, with slow improvement during Monday.

Today –

Winds southeasterly 30 to 40 knots gusts to 50 knots, increasing 40 to 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots later in the afternoon…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Building southerly swells… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 18 ft, building…  Sunrise: 7:14 am.

Tonight –

Winds southerly 40 to 50 knots gusts to 60 knots, increasing 55 to 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots, mainly in the west and in elevated areas, decreasing slowly and veering southwesterly overnight…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Southerly swells building high… Seas inside the reef 3 to 7 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 35 ft…  Sunset: 7:00 pm.

Monday –

Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 knots gusts to 45 knots, decreasing 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots by evening, further decreasing 18 to 24 knots with stronger gusts overnight…  Isolated to scattered showers, becoming isolated during the day, with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 20 ft, decreasing during the afternoon inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 9 to 15 ft…  Sunrise: 7:15 am; Sunset: 6:59 pm.

Tuesday –

Winds southwesterly 16 to 22 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the morning…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 11 ft…  Sunrise: 7:16 am; Sunset: 6:57 pm.

Wednesday –

Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the afternoon…  Isolated to scattered showers with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:56 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 12 to 18 knots…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:55 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 2:30 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 2:57 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 9:14 pm this evening: 0.4m/1.3ft, 9:20 am Monday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 26.9°C/80.4°F
Meteorologist: Fred Byrley, Observer: Chris Black

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 021452

WTNT21 KNHC 041450
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT……. 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 200SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There may be more warnings here: METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ South China Sea: Typhoon Mujigae 22W 03/1200Z 19.5N 113.4E, moving WNW 11 knots (JMA) – Published 03 Oct 2015 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mujigae 22W

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1522
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1522 (MUJIGAE)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 October 2015

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°30′(19.5°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E111°35′(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°40′(21.7°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°30′(23.5°)
E108°20′(108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°10′(25.2°)
E108°00′(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

HKO_banner_eng

tctrack_1519_en

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

(Updated at 20:45 on 3 Oct HKT)

In the past few hours, outer rainbands of Majigae brought heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Winds occasionally reached gale force in the offshore areas and on high ground. Heavy squally showers are expected to continue to affect Hong Kong in the next few hours.

According to the present forecast track, Mujigae will be closest to Hong Kong from midnight to early tomorrow morning. Mujigae is expected to skirt around 300 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong.

Unless Mujigae adopts a more northerly track or intensifies significantly, the chance of issuing the Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is not high. However, winds will occasionally reach gale force over the southwestern part of Hong Kong. The Observatory will closely monitor the evolution of Mujigae.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 9:45 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

Please listen to radio or watch television for traffic conditions and further announcements on the rainstorm.

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Oct, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon MUJIGAE (22W) currently located near 19.5 N 113.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HKO – Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 03/Oct/2015

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 031200 UTC, Typhoon Mujigae (1522) with central pressure 965 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of one nine point five degrees north (19.5 N) one one three point four degrees east (113.4 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 10 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 70 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 270 nautical miles over northern semicircle, 240 nautical miles elsewhere.

Forecast position and intensity at 041200 UTC
Two one point five degrees north (21.5 N)
One zero nine point nine degrees east (109.9 E)
Maximum winds 65 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 051200 UTC
Two three point eight degrees north (23.8 N)
One zero eight point four degrees east (108.4 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 061200 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200
WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1522 MUJIGAE (1522) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 19.5N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 20.6N 111.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 21.7N 109.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.5N 108.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 25.2N 108.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Guatemala: At least 26 people killed, 600 feared missing & 100+ homes buried in landslide – Published 03 Oct 2015 1030z (GMT/UTC)

BBC

Guatemala mudslide leaves hundreds missing

General view of the village of El Cambray II, in Santa Catarina Pinula municipality, some 15 km east of Guatemala City, after a landslide on October 2, 2015.

Image caption Local authorities said the hillsides had been weakening for some time. AFP

Rescue workers in Guatemala are digging through rubble from a mudslide that hit a village not far from the capital, in search of hundreds missing.

At least 26 bodies have so far been recovered from the village of El Cambray Dos, rescue services say.

Heavy rains swept a torrent of boulders and mud onto houses on Thursday, 15km (nine miles) east of Guatemala City.

Relatives have been receiving calls and texts from people trapped under the rubble, reporters at the scene say.

Survivors have been taken to makeshift shelters. Rescuers temporarily called off the search late on Friday because of heavy rains, AP news agency reports.

Julio Sanchez, a spokesman for Guatemala’s volunteer firefighters, said 26 people had died, including a number of children, and another 36 people were taken to hospitals.

One man was pulled alive from the rubble after more than 15 hours after the mudslide hit.

But Alejandro Maldonado, the head of the Guatemalan disaster agency, has warned that as many as 600 people could still be missing.

He said that number of people was believed to be asleep in their homes when the mudslide occurred, he added.

El Cambray is surrounded by steep hills that tower over the houses which are mostly set in the valley bottom.

Mr Maldonado said in a radio interview that the forested hills had been weakening for some time and had collapsed largely because of recent heavy rain.

END

More from AJE: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/10/dozens-dead-hundreds-missing-guatemala-mudslide-151003010922779.html

Video

Afghanistan: 9 MSF staff killed, 37 people injured (19 were staff) in hospital US airstrike in Kunduz – Published 03 Oct 2015 1000z (GMT/UTC)

UPDATED 03 Oct 2015 10:55 GMT

Air strike kills MSF medical staff in Afghanistan

Nine Doctors Without Borders staff killed in bombing of hospital in Kunduz, as NATO admits it may have been involved.

Surviving MSF staff were in shock after the clinic in Kunduz sustained heavy damage in the bombardment [MSF/Al Jazeera]

Surviving MSF staff were in shock after the clinic in Kunduz sustained heavy damage in the bombardment [MSF/Al Jazeera]

Doctors Without Borders (MSF) says at least nine of its staff have been killed in an overnight bombing of a hospital in the embattled Afghan city of Kunduz.

Another 37 people were wounded in the attack, including 19 MSF staff, the medical charity organisation told Al Jazeera.

NATO said on Friday that a US air strike “may have” hit the hospital, which is run by the medical charity, adding that the attack may have resulted in collateral damage.

An MSF spokesperson told Al Jazeera that the death toll is likely to rise, as the “fluid situation at the clinic hampered information gathering.

“The bombing struck the dormitories of the hospital, which explains why we – so far – have only seen deaths among our staff and not among patients,” MSF spokesperson Dalila Mahdawi said.

The MSF hospital is seen as a key medical lifeline in the region, which has been running “beyond capacity” in recent days of fighting which saw the Taliban seize control of the provincial capital for several days.

“At 2:10 am (20:40 GMT) local time … the MSF trauma centre in Kunduz was hit several times during sustained bombing and was very badly damaged,” MSF said in a statement on Friday.

At the time of the bombing, 105 patients and their caretakers and more than 80 MSF international and national staff were present in the hospital, the charity said.

NATO investigation

NATO said in a statement that US forces conducted an air strike in Kunduz at 2:15am local time “against individuals threatening the force”.

“The strike may have resulted in collateral damage to a nearby medical facility. This incident is under investigation,” the statement said.

MSF said it gave the coordinates of the hospital to Afghan and US forces several times to avoid being caught in crossfire.

“As MSF does in all conflict contexts, these precise locations were communicated to all parties on multiple occasions over the past months, including most recently on 29 September,” according to MSF Afghanistan representatives.

The bombing reportedly continued for more than 30 minutes after US and Afghan military offices in Kabul and Washington were first informed.


Residents tell of suffering as battle for Kunduz rages


“MSF urgently seeks clarity on exactly what took place and how this terrible event could have happened,” MSF said.

The MSF trauma centre in Kunduz is the only medical facility in the region that can deal with major injuries.

Following the attack, the medical charity urged all parties involved in the violence to respect the safety of health facilities, patients and staff.

Speaking to Al Jazeera after the attack, Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid said that no Taliban fighters were present in the hospital at the time of the air strike.

“We condemn the bombing on the hospital. It was an attack carried out on innocent people.” Zabiullah told Al Jazeera.

“Our mujahedeen (fighters) were not treated at the MSF trauma center due to prevailing military conditions. Such attacks by the US forces have taken place in Afghanistan for years now. This very attack has once again exposed the ruthless colors of the invaders to the Afghans,” he added.

MSF’s hospital is the only facility of its kind in the whole north-eastern region of Afghanistan [MSF]

However, Sediq Sediqqi, an Afghan interior ministry spokesperson, claimed the fighters were attacking security forces with gunfire and grenades from an area near the hospital.

“According to our information, the Taliban were hiding in the hospital building and the area around it while attacking the forces,” Sediqqi said.

“We are assessing and evaluating the collateral damage to the medical facility. However, in any case, the safety of the civilians comes first,” he added.

A caretaker at the hospital, who was severely injured in the air strike, told Al Jazeera that clinic’s medical staff did not favour any side the conflict.

“We are here to help and treat civilians,” Abdul Manar said.

“Several women and children are also killed in the strike. I could hear them screaming for help inside the hospital while it was set ablaze by the bombing. We are terrified and speechless.”

Battle for Kunduz

The development came a day after the Afghan government claimed it had successfully retaken parts of Kunduz from Taliban fighters who had controlled the strategic city since Monday.

The Taliban, however, claimed it remained in control of most of Kunduz, our correspondent said.

Kunduz is facing a humanitarian crisis, with thousands of civilians caught in the crossfire between government forces and Taliban fighters.

Precise losses in the fighting were not known, but health authorities said on Friday that at least 60 people have been killed and 400 wounded.

As fighting spreads in neighbouring Badakhshan, Takhar and Baghlan provinces, concerns are mounting that the seizure of Kunduz was merely the opening gambit in a new, bolder Taliban strategy to tighten the grip across northern Afghanistan.

Afghan forces, backed by NATO special forces and US air strikes, have been going from house to house in Kunduz in a bid to flush Taliban fighters out of the city.

Al Jazeera’s Qais Azimy, reporting from Puli Khumri, about 130km from Kunduz, said heavy fighting was ongoing in the centre of Kunduz.

“Sources inside the city are reporting heavy clashes between the Taliban and the Afghan army. There is no set frontline between the two sides so the fighting is from street to street at the moment.

“People inside the city are suffering. There is a shortage of food, water and electricity,” our correspondent said.

The Taliban’s offensive in Kunduz, their biggest tactical success since 2001, marks a major blow for Afghanistan’s Western-trained forces, who have largely been fighting on their own since last December.

Civilian and military casualties caused by NATO forces have been one of the most contentious issues in the 14-year campaign against the Taliban, provoking harsh public and government criticism.

US-led NATO forces ended their combat mission in Afghanistan last December, though a 13,000-strong residual force remains for training and counterterrorism operations.

But there has been an escalation in air strikes by NATO forces in recent months despite the drawdown.

Additional reporting by Shereena Qazi. Follow her on Twitter @ShereenaQazi

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies