Is 2012 the wettest year on record?

Official blog of the Met Office news team

We announced last week that 2012 is already the wettest year for England in our records dating back to 1910, but we’re still waiting to hear whether it’s the wettest on record for the UK.

The latest figures we have for 2012 go from 1 January to 26 December, and show that during that time we’ve had 1291.2 mm of rain for the UK – meaning it is currently the 4th wettest year on record.

It’s 46.1 mm short of the record of 1337.3 mm, set in 2000, so if 46.2 mm of rain falls between 27-31 December we will have a new record.

It’s likely to be fairly close-run, but it’s impossible to say whether 2012 is a UK record for rainfall until all the data come in from our weather observation sites around the country.

This information should come in on the 1st and 2nd

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Wales Air Forum

Ryanair jet
Pilots ‘stressed’ … Ryanair jet
Newsteam / SWNS Group
Exclusive
By RYAN PARRY

RYANAIR pilots have claimed the budget airline is putting passengers’ lives in danger by ordering crew to fly with as little fuel as legally possible.

Four Ryanair commanders said they are regularly minutes away from making mayday distress calls due to low fuel.

The whistle-blowers claim they were forced to fly with the minimal amount of jet fuel by profit-driven Ryanair management.

They also said their decision-making in the cockpit of a Boeing 737-800 is impeded due to the unnecessary “stress” about fuel.

The claims come after Ryanair was told to review procedures when three jets had to make emergency landings in Valencia, Spain, due to low fuel on the SAME day.

Speaking anonymously, the four English-speaking pilots told of their fears on a Dutch TV show.

One said: “There is pressure put on crews to take…

View original post 196 more words

Russia Air Crash: Faulty Brakes Likely Cause

Wales Air Forum

Faulty brakes may be to blame for a Russian airliner’s crash that killed five people, as dramatic amateur video shows the impact.

Faulty brakes may be to blame for a Russian airliner sliding off the runway and crashing into a motorway, an investigator has said, as the death toll rose to five.

“After landing the pilot uses all the available brake systems on the plane, but for some reason the machine did not stop,” a member of the investigation team told Russia’s Interfax news agency.

“Most likely it was faulty reverse engines or brakes.”

Amateur footage captured the moment the Tu-204 plane smashed onto the road after it overshot a runway at Moscow’s Vnukovo airport.

The footage, taken from a vehicle on the motorway, shows luggage and other debris flying from the aircraft and hitting other cars on the road.

Loud bangs can also be heard as the plane impacted…

View original post 418 more words

Severe Tropical Cyclone #FREDA Cat 3 (SS-Cat 2) 311500Z nr 17.8S 161.7E, moving SSE at 09 kts – 311212 1850z

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)
(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

 

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone FREDA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 86 issued 1316 UTC Monday 31 December 2012

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:Severe Tropical Cyclone FREDA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm December 31 3 17.7S 161.7E 85
+6hr 6 pm December 31 3 18.2S 161.7E 110
+12hr 12 am January 1 3 18.6S 161.7E 140
+18hr 6 am January 1 2 19.1S 161.7E 165
+24hr 12 pm January 1 2 19.6S 161.9E 195
+36hr 12 am January 2 2 20.4S 162.5E 255
+48hr 12 pm January 2 1 21.2S 163.4E 315
+60hr 12 am January 3 1 21.9S 164.4E 405
+72hr 12 pm January 3 1 22.6S 165.1E 490

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa
The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.
 

HURRICANE WARNING 086 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 31/1302 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 967HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7
SOUTH 161.7 EAST AT 311200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.7S 161.7E AT 311200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY
011200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.6S 161.7E AT 010000 UTC
AND NEAR 19.6S 161.9E AT 011200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 084.
 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311200Z — NEAR 17.6S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 161.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 18.5S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 19.2S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 20.1S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 20.7S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 21.9S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 23.1S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 24.6S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS
AND THE LOSS OF ALL BANDING FEATURES. A 310906Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE TRMM IMAGE AND
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING
TREND AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A JET MAX
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05P IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW CALEDONIA THROUGH TAU 96 DUE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OVER AUSTRALIA, MOVING IN AND WEAKENING THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 96 A DEEP-LAYERED STR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM GIVING TC 05P A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BIAS. TC 05P WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG VWS AND
COOL (24 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
NEW CALEDONIA, FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH TAU 72 BUT NOW
SHOWS THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN DUE TO ECMWF LOSING THE VORTEX NEAR NEW
CALEDONIA. NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS ALL SHOW THIS GENERAL TURN IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STR THAT IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS
40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

Press Reports:

ABC News

Cyclone Freda lashes Solomon Islands

 

Tropical Cyclone Freda has struck the Solomon Islands, bringing heavy rains and winds of up to 130 kilometres per hour.

Witnesses say roofs have been ripped off houses and trees have been flattened, while rising rivers caused flooding in some areas.

There are no reports of deaths or injuries.

Sajay Prakesh of the Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre in Fiji said although the cyclone was moving away, parts of the Solomon Islands were being hit by very strong winds and heavy rain.

Cyclone Freda is now a category two cyclone and it is continuing to intensify, he said on Saturday afternoon.

It will become category-three by midnight tonight, having very destructive winds.

Coastal and low-lying areas are at risk of inundation and fishermen have been advised to stay away from the sea.

Matthew Bass from the Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane says Freda is no longer expected to hit Vanuatu and New Caledonia in the coming days.

At this stage its expected to maintain a reasonably southerly path and with that it isnt directly expected to affect Vanuatu in the next couple of days, he said.

At this stage around New Years were expecting it to be quite far from New Caledonia, still to the north-east of the islands.

Freda comes just weeks after Cyclone Evan killed at least five people in Samoa before destroying homes and stranding thousands of tourists in Fiji.

Queensland weather forecaster Peter Otto says the Freda is about 1,300 kilometres from the Australian coast.

This cyclone is expected to stay way off the eastern Australian coast for the next several days and the only impact we can see in the near future is the possibility of waves increasing into the early part of next week, but thats a long way off, he said.

Meanwhile, the weather bureau says a cyclone off Western Australia is unlikely to reach the coast.

Category-one Cyclone Mitchell is about 600 kilometres north-north-west of Exmouth and is expected to move south over the next 48 hours.

It is likely to intensify to a category-two overnight, before weakening again on Sunday.

However, David Farr from the Bureau of Meteorology says Mitchell is not expected to cross the coast.

On the current forecast track it wont affect the north west coast of WA, he said.

Theres a slight risk of gales on the upper west coast if the system takes a track a bit more to the south-east from what were expecting. But it is only a slight risk.

31 Dec 2012:

Cyclone Freda approaches northern New Caledonia

Updated at 7:07 pm 31 December 2012 (NZ Time)

Tropical Cyclone Freda is expected to weaken as it approaches New Caledonia over the next day or so.

The category four cyclone is now in the Coral Sea having brought heavy rain and damaged crops in parts of Solomon Islands.

It is expected to be about 300 kilometres west of the northern New Caledonian islands of Belep by midnight on Monday.

New Zealands MetService says the cyclone has sustained winds of 175 kilometres an hour at its centre with gusts reaching 275 kilometres an hour.

It says gales can be expected in the French territorys northernmost islands in the next 24 to 48 hours.

MetService says the slow-moving storm is expected to lie about 280 kilometres to the west of Poum, at the north of New Caledonias main island, by noon on Wednesday. radionz.co.nz