Fiji/ Tonga: Tropical Cyclone KENI 19P, 13F 101500Z position near 22.1S 177.6W, moving SE 25kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Apr 2018 1520z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone KENI (19P, 13F)

Mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa currently (Fiji Intensity Category 3) = approx equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Keni) Warning #08
Issued at 10/1500Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 21.1S 178.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.7W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 25.2S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 34 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 31.1S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 37 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 38.2S 167.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 177.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 19P NO LONGER HAS AN EYE FEATURE AND THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
101011Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON A WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS TC 19P
RAPIDLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 19P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa expected by 6 pm April 9 UTC

(Fiji Intensity Category 2)

RSMC Nadi, Fiji LOGO

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone KENI

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 32 issued 1300 UTC Tuesday 10 April 2018

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone KENI

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm April 10 3 20.9S 179.0W 85
+6hr 6 pm April 10 3 22.4S 177.1W 110
+12hr 12 am April 11 2 24.8S 175.0W 140
+18hr 6 am April 11 2 27.2S 173.0W 165
+24hr 12 pm April 11 2 30.8S 171.2W 195
+36hr 12 am April 12 1 38.3S 167.9W 255
+48hr 12 pm April 12 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 12 am April 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 pm April 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 100852 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6S
179.1E AT 100600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND
HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 21 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM
STEERED TO SOUTHEAST BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE WITH LG SURROUND GIVING DT OF
4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 21.3S 178.8W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 23.4S 176.7W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.6S 174.8W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 30.4S 173.5W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 101400 UTC.

FIJI

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:00pm on Tuesday the 10th of April 2018

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MATUKU, TOTOYA AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU
GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVIT GROUP AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PARTS OF FIJI. For more information, refer
to the latest Special Weather Bulletin on Flood issued by RSMC, Nadi at
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20016.txt

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3
SOUTH 179.6 EAST OR ABOUT 100 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU AND ABOUT
270KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADAVU AT 9:00 pm. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 130 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185
KM/HR. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 45 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 KILOMETRES
SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 11:00 am TOMORROW AND ABOUT 1200 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST
OF ONO-I-LAU AT 11:00 pm TOMORROW.

FOR ONO-I-LAU:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 130KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH STORM SURGE OF MORE THAN 2 METERS COULD BE EXPECTED
OVER COASTAL AREAS.

FOR MATUKU, TOTOYA AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU GROUP:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 80KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
110KM/HR.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASING FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN GRADUALLY EASING
FROM TOMORROW. FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA .FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 50 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
80KM/HR. WINDS EASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH FROM TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY
AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVIT GROUP . RAIN EASING FROMTOMORROW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES OVER ELSEWHERE.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS LIKELY.

 

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WITH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 2:00 AM TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLIER.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Apr, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone KENI is currently located near 21.1 S 178.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KENI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KENI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nuku’ alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

Other

sp201819_5day1

(Above image: @wunderground)

doc k10

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / HURRICANE_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 1200 

WHPS01 NFFN 101200
HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 101254 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9 SOUTH 179.0
WEST AT 101200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.9S 179.0W AT 101200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.8S 175.0W AT 110000 UTC
AND NEAR 30.8S 171.2W AT 111200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 031.

STORM WARNING 027 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 091322 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3
SOUTH 173.6 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.3S 173.6E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
65 KNOTS BY 110000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.8S 175.8E AT 100000 UTC
AND NEAR 20.1S 179.6E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

FIJI

Extracted from Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENIISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:00pm on Tuesday the 10th of April  2018

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WITH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

=============================================================================

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