Philippines: Tropical Storm 23W Jangmi/ Seniang 300900Z 10.0N 121.5E, moving W 15km/h(9kt) – Published 301214 1115z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Jangmi

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

TS 1423 (JANGMI)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 December 2014
<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N10°00′(10.0°)
E121°30′(121.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 30/21 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N9°40′(9.7°)
E120°05′(120.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/23W_300532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300600Z — NEAR 10.4N 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 121.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 9.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 9.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 8.9N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 8.3N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 7.1N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 6.4N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 5.6N 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 120.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT
WAVEN HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z,
302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN

News Reports

Death toll from Philippine storm Jangmi rises to 30

Published on Dec 30, 2014 5:01 PM
Residents help each other out from their inundated neighbourhoods after rains spawned by a tropical storm, locally known as Seniang, caused flooding in Misamis Oriental on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao on Dec 29, 2014. — PHOTO: AFP

MANILA (AFP) – At least 30 people were killed in landslides and flash floods as tropical storm Jangmi slowly crossed the southern and central Philippines, dumping heavy rain for a second day on Tuesday, officials said.

Rivers burst their banks and submerged villages in floods up to “neck-deep” while hillsides crashed onto homes and highways, officials said.  Some residents in vulnerable areas ignored evacuation warnings, Stephany Uy-Tan, mayor of the town of Catbalogan in Samar province, told DZMM radio.

“The rains were really strong and people thought the storm won’t be too strong based on the news,” she said.

Twelve people were killed after a landslide buried two vans on a mountainside highway in Catbalogan, she said.  “Rescuers report hearing voices from the rubble,” she said.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 310600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1423 JANGMI (1423) 998 HPA
AT 10.2N 121.6E SULU SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 09.8N 120.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 09.4N 118.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 08.4N 115.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 06.8N 110.8E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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South Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone 04S Kate 280900Z POSITION near 13.8S 92.3E, moving SW at 04 Knots (JTWC) – Updated 281214 0955z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 04S Kate

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta

IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 08:08 WIB 28/12/2014

Siklon Tropis KATE

Kondisi tanggal 28/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 13.1LS, 92.8BT (sekitar 1470 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 2 knots (4 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 80 knots (150 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 29/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 14.7LS, 92.2BT (sekitar 1640 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : Selatan barat daya, kecepatan 4 knots (8 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 80 knots (150 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 30/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 17.0LS, 90.9BT
Arah Gerak : Selatan barat daya, kecepatan 5 knots (10 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 60 knots (110 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 31/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 19.4LS, 87.9BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya, kecepatan 7 knots (12 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis KATE memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Bengkulu hingga barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten, dan Samudera Hindia selatan Banten hingga Jawa Tengah.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian lebih dari 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Samudera Hindia barat Sumatera.

IDJ21030
Meteorology and Geophysics
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (the Centre) in Jakarta

INFORMATION BULLETIN TROPICAL CYCLONE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING issued by CENTRE JAKARTA
In: 8:08 PM 12/28/2014

Tropical Cyclone KATE

Conditions dated 28.12.2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 13.1LS, 92.8BT (about 1470 km southwest of Bengkulu)
Motion direction: west, the speed of 2 knots (4 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 80 knots (150 km / h)

Prediction 24 hours, date 12/29/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 14.7LS, 92.2BT (about 1640 km southwest of Bengkulu)
Motion direction: South-west, the speed of 4 knots (8 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 80 knots (150 km / h)

Prediction 48 hours, date 12/30/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 17.0LS, 90.9BT
Motion direction: South-west, the speed of 5 knots (10 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 60 knots (110 km / h)

Prediction 72 hours, date 12/31/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 19.4LS, 87.9BT
Direction Motion: Southwestern, speed 7 knots (12 km / h) moving away from the territory of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 50 knots (95 km / h)

IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
KATE tropical cyclone impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:
– A wave with a height of 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters west of Bengkulu to Lampung, southern Sunda Strait, southern waters of Banten, and the Indian Ocean to the south Banten Central Java.
– A wave with a height of more than 3 meters likely to occur in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
280600Z — NEAR 13.6S 92.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 92.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 14.3S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 15.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 16.3S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 17.5S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 20.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 92.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PULSATING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN SIZE AND SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES
TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280542Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED SEVERAL SMALL TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING
INTO AN EYE FEATURE ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN SIZE. A 280230Z ASCAT PASS WAS
UTILIZED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS
SATELLITE DATA, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON AN EVALUATION OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS THE LAST INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS RE-EVALUATED AND
INCREASED UP TO 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC KATE
IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT
TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER
TAU 72. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND DECEASING OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36 AND
THEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR AND COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROUGH
INTERACTION WITH THE STR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA10 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_PERTH / 0642

WTAU05 APRF 280642
IDW23100
40:3:2:24:14S093E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0642UTC 28 DECEMBER 2014

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal eight south (13.8S)
longitude ninety two decimal five east (92.5E)
Recent movement : southwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 971 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre easing to 75 knots by 0600 UTC 29
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 28 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.6 south 92.2 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 29 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.7 south 91.8 east
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 28 December 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 27 Dec 2014 1433z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-08-jan-2015-1203z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indonesia: 18 Bodies found, 9 ID’ed, 100 missing in Java after major landslide – Published 131214 1152z (GMT/UTC)

12 dead, nearly 100 missing in Indonesian landslide – Official

A rescue team searches for survivors and remove bodies after a landslide at Jemblung village. – AFP Photo/DidaNuswantara

JAKARTA: A landslide triggered by torrential downpours has killed at least 12 people and left nearly 100 others missing on Indonesia’s main island of Java, an official said Saturday.Hundreds of rescuers were digging through mud and rubble after the landslide buried scores of houses in Jemblung village in central Java late Friday, the national disaster agency said.

The landslide swept down a hillside in the village, sparing only two houses, an AFP correspondent said.

TV footage showed bystanders watching the emergency effort while rescuers passed an orange body bag by hand through the muddy area.

“We found 12 bodies at the moment, and we are searching for 96 others,” an officer at the emergency centre at the scene of the disaster told AFP, asking not to be identified.

Disaster agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said it was unclear whether those missing were buried under the landslide or had taken refuge.

“Conditions on the ground are pretty tough and we need heavy machines to clear the road that has been covered by the landslide,” Nugroho added.

Officials said that the ground was still unstable and most rescue work was being carried out manually. Heavy machines were trying to clear mud that had cut access to the location.

There was no phone signal in the area, making coordinating rescuing efforts difficult, they added.

The agency said that 200 rescuers and 500 volunteers had joined the search for the missing.

Landslides triggered by heavy rains and floods are common in tropical Indonesia during the rainy season.

The national disaster agency estimates around half the country’s 250 million population lives in areas prone to landslides.

The vast Indonesian archipelago is one of the most natural-disaster-prone nations on Earth, and is also frequently hit by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

BBC

Indonesia landslide: Many missing in Java

Villagers use shovels to remove mud from the main road at Pasuruhan village in Wonosobo December 12, 2014, in this photo taken by Antara Foto

Landslides and flash floods are common in Indonesia

At least eight people have died and more than 100 are missing after a landslide on Indonesia’s main island of Java.

Heavy rain caused the landslide near Jemblung village in central Java.

Disaster agency officials said rescue teams had taken almost 40 people to hospital, of whom four were in critical condition.

Hundreds of rescuers, including police and soldiers, have been trying to find survivors.

The country’s national disaster agency said hundreds of houses had been destroyed by the landslide.

“Conditions on the ground are pretty tough and we need heavy machines to clear the road that has been covered by the landslide,” agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said.

Flash floods and landslides are common in Indonesia, triggered by seasonal downpours.

Many of the inhabitants of the chain of 17,000 islands live in mountainous areas or near fertile flood plains.

Related Stories

Edit:

“The death toll of the Banjarnegara landslides rose to 8 on Saturday with 100 people still missing, the authorities said.

Heavy rain triggered the landslides on Friday evening in the village of Sampang, sub-district of Karangkobar, regency of Banjarnegara, Central Java province.

“The death toll is rising. Now eight bodies have been found dead and 100 people are still missing,”  National Agency for Disaster Control (BNPB) spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said as quoted by Antara news wire.

Sutopo said a joint team of the BNPB, military and police, the National Search and Rescue Agency (Basarnas) and volunteers is still looking for the missing people.

“The terrain is difficult. Heavy equipment is needed to remove the earth and rocks covering the road,” he said.” – .thejakartapost.com

Update

Saturday, December 13th, 2014 | 17:11 pm (local time)

“BANJARNEGARA, KOMPAS.com – Rescue team members discovered 18 bodies of victims of landslides that occurred in the hamlet Jemblung RT 05 RW 01, Desa Sampang, District Karangkobar, Banjarnegara, Central Java. Of the 18 bodies that, just nine bodies were identified.

Here are the nine people killed names Tribunnews collected from the scene, Saturday (12/13/2014).
1. Joko Adi P (18), Hamlet Endong, RT 03, RW 02, Gumelar Village, District Karangkobar.
2. Sukirno (20), Hamlet Endong, RT 03, RW 02, Gumelar Village, District Karangkobar
3. Misman (25), Hamlet Endong, RT 03, RW, 02, Gumelar Village, District Karangkobar
4. Bahrun (70), the village of Sampang, RT 05, RW 01, District Karangkobar
5. Speech, Grogol village, RT 05, RW 01, District Pejawaran
6. Hadi (60), the village of Sampang, RT 05, RW 01, District Karangkobar
7. Hendi (9) Hamlet Genting RT 04 RW 03 Grogol Village District of Pajawaran
8. Klimah (33), the village of Sampang, RT 05, RW 01, District Karangkobar
9. Sunarti (60), the village of Sampang, RT 05, RW 01, District Karangkobar

The nine bodies have been identified in part Banjarnegara taken to hospitals, some of them are taken home relatives. Meanwhile, nine other bodies are still in the process of identification in Post SAR team.

Based on information from the Village Head Sampang, the number of people buried by landslides about 100 people.”

On Twitter,  follow @KSR_PMI_UMK(Indonesian)

Governor declares disaster emergency for three months

South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 03S BAKUNG 122100Z POSITION nr 10.3S 91.0E, moving WSW at 8knots (JTWC) – Updated 121214 2123z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S BAKUNG

(Warning: Images not updating despite being correct on edit, click on most images to go to source. Check comments for interim updates,)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source) 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0315.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03S_121730sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 122100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121800Z — NEAR 10.2S 91.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 91.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 10.5S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 10.7S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 10.7S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 10.7S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 10.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 11.1S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 11.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 91.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION OBSCURING A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 121557Z ASCAT AND 1556 METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND MORE INTENSE
(40 KNOT) WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR LOOP, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND WIIX AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC BAKUNG IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE,
ALLOWING TC 03S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 72, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SYSTEM TURNING EQUATORWARD
PRIOR TO ITS NORTHERLY DIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (WITHOUT
GFS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

 

NASA’s Hurricane Web Page

SO. INDIAN OCEAN *Full Update* NASA’s Watches Tropical Cyclone Bakung Over Open Ocean
Bakung is moving in a westerly direction over the open waters of the S. Indian Ocean and Aqua captured an image of the sea storm.
STORY: http://www.nasa.gov/c…/goddard/bakung-southern-indian-ocean/

Bakung is moving in a westerly direction over the open waters of the…
nasa.gov

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA VIII_N
METAREA VIII_S

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 11 Dec 2014 1343z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here:  https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-26-dec-2014-0830z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Nepal: At least 35 killed, 54 injured in bus accidents in Western Region & Bheri Zone – Published 081214 1010z (GMT/UTC)

Accident 1

The death toll in Surkhet accident where a bus veered off the road at Pokharikanda-9, on the Karnali Highway has reached 18.

Police said that 14 persons died on the spot while four others breathed their last while receiving treatment. The ill-fated bus (Na 4 Kha 6857), veered off the road and plunged some 500 metres at Kalikhola at around 6:45pm on Sunday. The vehicle was on its way to Tikapur, Kailali, from Kalikot. Surkhet Police Chief SP Rajesh Lal Karna informed that initial investigation showed that the bus with seat capacity of 38, was overloaded with 68 passengers, which caused the vehicle’s brake to fail resulting into the accident. The police have be able to identify 10 of the deceased. Fourty nine persons are injured in the accident. Among the injured, 20 are receiving medical treatment at Surkhet Regional Hospital, 6 are being treated at Maya Nursing Home and another 8 injured passengers are receiving treatments at Deuki Nursing Home. The injured claimed that the driver’s assistant had been driving when the accident happened. Most of the passengers were from Kalikot and Bajura, on their way to India for work.

Monday, 08 December, 2014 at 08:24 (08:24 AM) UTC RSOE

“The death toll in Surkhet bus accident of Sunday night has reached 18. Ten of them have been identified, said police on Monday, December 8, 2014.

The dead, who have been identified, include: Lalbire Darji, Durga Bista, Dil Sarki, Lal Darji, Manaraj Bista, Ram Darji, Pankhe Sarki and Pane Sarki of Gotri VDC, Bajura.

Similarly, bus driver Min Bahadur Budha of Chhinchu, Surkhet and conductor Bhabi Khatri have been identified.

The bus plated Na 4 Kha 6857 was heading from Jitegaida of Kalikot to Kailali. The bus plunged 700 metres down to a stream Kali Khola at Pokhari Danda, Surkhet due to overload of passengers.

More than 50 people injured in the accident were rushed to hospitals in Surkhet and some were taken to Nepalgunj.

The bus initially carried 36 passengers when it left Kalikot but it took more passengers on the way and that was the reason for the accident, according to police.” – nepalnews.com

Accident 2

An overcrowded bus has plunged off a mountain road in Nepal, killing at least 17 people and injuring 50 more, police said Monday.

Police official Kesh Bahadur Shahi said the bus veered off the road near Pokharakada village Sunday night and rolled 600 meters (about 2,000 feet) down a slope. Rescuers pulled out 14 bodies while three more died at a hospital. There were 67 people on the bus, which had 38 seats. The bus was driving on a narrow mountain road during the night when the accident happened about 400 kilometers (250 miles) west of the capital, Katmandu. Rescuers worked all night to help the injured passengers and bring the bodies to the main road, police said. The injured are recovering in hospitals in nearby towns and a dozen of them are in critical condition, they said. Bus accidents in Nepal are generally blamed on poorly maintained vehicles and roads.

Monday, 08 December, 2014 at 03:58 (03:58 AM) UTC

Philippines: Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 1422 22W 082100Z POSITION nr 14.0N 120.4E, moving WNW 05 knots(JTWC) – Updated – 081214 2130z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM 1422 (HAGUPIT) – JMA

(Now lower than CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) – JTWC

Philippines beware!!

(Warning: Images not updating despite being correct on edit, click on most images to go to source. Check comments for interim updates,)

Japan Meteorological agency

1422

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 8 December 2014

<Analyses at 08/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°50′(13.8°)
E120°50′(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°05′(14.1°)
E119°00′(119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°05′(14.1°)
E116°55′(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°30′(13.5°)
E112°30′(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N11°40′(11.7°)
E108°10′(108.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2214.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/22W_081732sair.jpg

 

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 14.0N 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 120.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 14.2N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.1N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 13.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 13.5N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 12.2N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 10.1N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 120.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Dec, 201418:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT (22W) currently located near 14.0 N 120.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Storm Tracker Map

Western Pacific Weather

Find A Shelter in Your Area, Typhoon Hagupit Interactive Map (link)

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Ruby) in Southern Luzon | Afternoon Video Update

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) is now moving near the province of Batangas and could make landfall near the town of Laiya according to PAGASA. While Signal #3 warnings have been lowered by the agency, Signal #2 is still in effect in many areas, including Metro Manila. Bands of heavy rains and strong winds will

Read More…

Tropical Storm 22W HAGUPIT (Ruby) continues its trek across the Philippines. Manila braces for impact.

Monday morning in the WPAC region and tropical storm HAGUPIT, named “Ruby” by the Philippine’s MET service, PAGASA, continues to weaken and work its way to the NW across the Philippine archipelago this morning. The latest information at 08/03z from the JTWC is as follows: Position:              13.4N, 122.4E Location:             126 nm (233km) SE of Manila, Philippines

Read More…

Severe Tropical Storm Hagupit wobbling over the Philippines

Hagupit continues to track west across the Philippines Monday morning bringing wide spread heavy rainfall to southern Luzon and Northern Visayas.  At least two deaths have been officially reported at the time of this update. We have also seen unconfirmed reports in social media but we will wait for casualty reports from the NDRRMC here.

Read More…

Typhoon Hagupit / Rudy Live Webcast

Feel free to ask questions or comments in this live update prior to landfall of Typhoon Hagupit..

Below are some useful “Stay Alive” tips if you wanna ride out a Typhoon:

1. Pruning of large and tall trees will make you safe from damage, reinforce vulnerable ones to the ground if necessary. Keep them away from power lines;

2. Make sure roofing are sturdy to withstand powerful wind and rain. Ensure doors and windows are water tight;

3. Clear your property from potentially dangerous debris becoming airborne during high wind;

4. Free water ways from debris to avoid backing up flood waters towards river estuaries in case of torrential rains associated with the system;

5. Stay clear from the immediate coasts and low-lying areas to avoid being caught up by raging waters. Watchout for landslips if you live near steep elevations;

6. Secure food stocks, adequate potable water supply and medications. Do not forget to safely shelter dogs and other beloved animal companion indoor. Be humane enough. You don’t wanna keep them cold outside in a storm;

7. Keep emergency numbers at hand and orient family members what to do before, during and after the storm. Charge handheld radios, cellular phones and extra battery before electricity is cut from the grid;

8. Listen to emergency broadcast via battery-powered portable radio. Lights would definitely go out during the storm, so you wanna make sure you got emergency lights and torch lights in handy;

9. Keep calm and pray for the Typhoon to come to past safely in your vicinity. We’ll ride out the storm safely.

NEWS

Philippine capital braces for storm, as Hagupit leaves 27 dead

Typhoon death toll rises after storm tears through central islands flattening homes and toppling trees

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1422 HAGUPIT (1422) 992 HPA
AT 13.8N 120.8E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 14.1N 119.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 14.1N 116.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.5N 112.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 11.7N 108.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W 050900Z POSITION 12.0N 128.7E, moving W at 07kt (JMA) – Updated – 051214 1232z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/12/06/philippines-typhoon-hagupit-1422-22w-060900z-position-12-0n-126-3e-moving-w-at-07kt-jma-updated-061214-1126z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

YAP/ Palau/ Philippines: Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 1422 22W 020900Z 6.2N 144.2E, moving W at 20kt (JMA) – Published – 021214 1247z (GMT/UTC)

Philippines: Super Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W 041500Z POSITION 11.1N 130.9E, moving WNW at 12kt (JTWC) – Updated – 041214 1415z (GMT/UTC)

More here; http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3u2

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.