Fiji/ Rotuma/ South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone MONA 03F 04/1500Z near 13.7S 175.6E, moving NNW ~16kt (RSMC Nadi) – Published 04 Jan 2019 2000Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone MONA 09P, 04F

Tropical cyclone Mona has continued to intensify and upgraded into a Fiji category 2 tropical cyclone at 10am local time today

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND THE WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU .

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LAND AREAS AND WATERS OF FIJI
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WHOLE OF FIJI.

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone MONA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 33 issued 1612 UTC Friday 4 January 2019

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone MONA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 pm January 4 2 13.7S 175.6E 85
+6hr 9 pm January 4 2 13.6S 175.8E 110
+12hr 3 am January 5 2 13.6S 176.0E 140
+18hr 9 am January 5 2 13.8S 176.5E 165
+24hr 3 pm January 5 2 14.3S 177.0E 195
+36hr 3 am January 6 2 15.7S 178.2E 255
+48hr 3 pm January 6 2 17.8S 179.0E 315
+60hr 3 am January 7 2 19.7S 178.6E 405
+72hr 3 pm January 7 2 21.1S 177.1E 490

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa
The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 041701 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 175.7E AT
041200 UTC. POSITION GOOD POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WIITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP
TO 500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP YIEDS DT=2.0. PT
AND MT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 14.2S 176.7E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 14.9S 177.6E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.9S 178.4E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 17.2S 178.9E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MONA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
042000 UTC.

 

FIJI

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY TWO FOR FLOOD ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 07.30AM SATURDAY THE 5TH OF JANUARY, 2019.

FLOOD WARNING

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR;

ALL LOW LYING AREAS, SMALL STREAMS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO MAJOR RIVERS OF FIJI;
LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO DREKETILAILAI STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF LABASA RIVER.
FLOOD ALERT

A FLOOD ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR;

LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO SABATA STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAVUA TOWN;
LOW LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO NAVUA BRIDGE STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAVUA RIVER;
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS ADJACENT TO AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAQALI STATION;

LEVEL AT SABATA STATION WAS 5.52M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 1.52M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.

LEVEL AT NAVUA BRIDGE WAS 2.32M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 0.32M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.
LEVEL AT NAQALI STATION WAS 3.45M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 1.10M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.

SITUATION

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 6 EAST OR ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR
ABOUT 510KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4AM TODAY.MONA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH, TURN EASTWARDS AND THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP FROM MID MORNING.
TIDE HEIGHT TIME
LOW 0.52 12.04PM
HIGH 1.69M 07.14pM

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON FLOOD WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 10.30AM TODAY OR EARLIER.

Fiji and Rotuma

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA ISSUED FROM RSMC
NADI at 5.00am on Saturday the 5th of January 2019

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND THE WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU .

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LAND AREAS AND WATERS OF FIJI
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WHOLE OF FIJI.
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13 DECIMAL 7
SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 6 EAST OR ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR
ABOUT 510KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4AM TODAY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, THE 10
MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 95KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
130KM/HR. MONA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16KM/HR.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH, TURN EASTWARDS AND THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP FROM MID MORNING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 380 KM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 480KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4PM TODAY
AND ABOUT 280KM NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 350 KM NORTHWEST OF
LABASA AT 4AM TOMORROW.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55KM/HR AND GUSTS UP TO
70KM/HR. WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED
UP TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90KM/HR FROM TONIGHT. PERIODS OF
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
LIKELY.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55KM/HR AND GUSTS UP TO
70KM/HR. WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED UP
TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90KM/HR FROM TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE REST
OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND OVER REST OF THE PLACES FROM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS LIKELY.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FURTHER INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS OVER
YASAWA WATERS AND NORTHERN VANUA LEVU WATERS FROM TONIGHT. FOR THE REST
OF FIJI WATERS, WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS
FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC MONA WILL BE ISSUED AT 08.00AM
TODAY.

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF FIJI
MEDIA RELEASE No.16
1pm, Friday, 04 January 2019
TC MONA FURTHER INTESIFIES AND UPGRADES TO CATEGORY 2
Tropical cyclone Mona has continued to intensify and upgraded into a category 2 tropical cyclone at 10am today. TC Mona remains to the northwest of the Group and has gradually picked up speed in the las 24 hours.
The cyclone is expected to move towards the south-southwest till this evening, turn and move east-southeast towards the Fiji Group from tonight.
TC Mona centre was located near 14.7 degrees’ south latitude and 177.2 east longitude or about 230km north of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 300km northwest of Labasa at 10am today.TC Mona is moving south-southwest at about 15km/hr.
On the forecast track, the centre is expected to be located about 180km north-northwest of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 290km north-northwest of Nadi at 10pm today and about 130km north of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 250km north of Nadi at 10am tomorrow.
Given that the tropical cyclones have behaved erratically, when encountering land masses in the past, the possibility of TC Mona making a landfall over Vanua Levu on Monday morning remains a possibility at this stage and its movement will be closely monitored.
The outer active rain bands from TC Mona have started affecting the northern and eastern parts of the country. As the system moves closer to Fiji, rain will become heavy and frequent. Effects of strong winds are also expected from today and increasing to damaging gale force winds later tomorrow.
Depending on the closeness of the system to pass land areas, gale force winds can be expected especially over the Yasawa and Mamanuca Group, Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands. Damaging winds are likely to begin several hours before the cyclone centre passes overhead or nearby.
The effects of wind can cause damages to well-built framed homes which can blow away roofs, trees uprooted and branches being broken, severely damage weak structures, totally destroy shallow rooted crops, cause loose objects to fly, damage electricity lines and poles, damage water infrastructure, etc.
For Fiji Waters, mariners can expect northeast to southeast winds 20 to 30 knots, gusting to 45
knots and moderate southerly swells. Poor visibility in areas of rain and thunderstorms. Winds may
further increase to 35 to 40 knots with high seas over Vanua Levu Waters and Yasawa Waters from
later tomorrow.
Meanwhile, an active trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain lies slow moving just
north of Vanua Levu and affects the northern part of the Group.
A Special Weather Bulletin for Tropical Cyclone Alert is current to allow communities to prepare
for the worst case scenario should the system directly affect the Group. The following alerts and
warnings remain in force:
A “Gale Warning” is now in force for Yasawa and Mamanuca Group
A “Tropical Cyclone Alert” remains in force for Yasawa Group, Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby
smaller islands and is now in force for the rest of Fiji
A “Strong Wind Warning” remains in force for Kadavu and nearby smaller islands, Yasawa Group
and northern Viti Levu from Rakiraki to Tailevu North
A “Strong Wind Warning” remains in force for all Fiji Waters
A “Heavy Rain Warning” remains in force for Yasawa Group and Mamanuca Group, Vanua Levu,
Taveuni and nearby smaller islands, the eastern half of Viti Levu, Lau and Lomaiviti group
A “Heavy Rain Alert” is now in force for the rest of Fiji
A “Flood Warning” remains in force for all low lying areas, small streams and areas adjacent to
major rivers of Vanua Levu.
With rivers being at medium to high flows, soil already saturated and more rain predicted, the
chances of flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is high. Sea flooding of low-lying coastal
areas and damaging heavy swells is also anticipated. The Northern, and Eastern coastlines are at
high risk of inundation by combined effect of wind stress, heavy swells, storm surge and high tide.
All communities living in low coastal, flood prone and low lying areas are reminded to remain
alert and take all necessary precautions, similarly for those living in landslide prone areas.
Members of the public are advised to remain updated with the latest weather information and take
alerts and warnings seriously.
For more details and the latest on weather, please contact the National Weather Forecasting Centre
on 6736006, 9905376 or visit the Fiji Meteorological Service’s website, http://www.met.gov.fj. You can
also visit the Fiji Meteorological Service official Facebook page for latest updates.
Alerts and warnings can be found at:
Special Weather Bulletin (Tropical Cyclone Alert):
http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20020.txt
Flood alert/warning: http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20016.txt\
Heavy rain alert/warning: http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20014.txt
VILIAME VEREIVALU
ACTING DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY
Figure 1: Weather Map at 10am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 2: Satellite image at 10am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 4: Tropical Cyclone Mona (CAT1), Threat Map at 8.51am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 5: Tropical Cyclone Mona (CAT1), Forecast Track Map at 8.42am today on 04 January
2019.
Figure 3: Radar image at 10.40am today on 04 January 2019.
STATION
24 HOUR RAINFALL
Udu Point
146mm
Saqani
110mm
Nabouwalu
104mm
Matei
61mm
Monasavu
58mm Table 1: Significant rainfall at selected sites from 9am yesterday to 9am this morning, 04 January 2019.
END.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Jan, 2019 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MONA is currently located near 14.8 S 177.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). MONA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

dr mona.jpg

(Image: @RoshinRowjee ) 3 Jan 2019

MARITIME/SHIPPING

South West Pacific Marine

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Jan 040800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 050600 UTC. STORM WARNING 033 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 040752 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9 SOUTH 176.4 EAST AT 040600 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 14.9S 176.4E at 040600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 041800 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.2S 176.7E AT 041800 UTC AND NEAR 15.3S 177.2E AT 050600 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 030. *********************************************************************

*** GALE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 040649 UTC. THE AREA BOUNDED BY 09S 176E 09S 174E 10S 172E 09S 171E 09S 173E 09S 176E EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 031. *********************************************************************

***** TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9 SOUTH 176.4 EAST AT 040600 UTC. POSITION POOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 EQT 175E 05S 178E 14S 180 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 EQT 178W 08S 176W 15S 177W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. TROUGH T1 07S 160E 06S 165E 09S 172E 13S 176E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 16S 178W 21S 165W 25S 151W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 20S 149W 25S 149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. OUTSIDE STORM WARNING AREA 033 AND IN THE AREA BETWEEN SOUTH OF T1 AND WEST OF 175W, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 032 AND IN THE AREA WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ, EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS. IN THE AREA NORTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175W AND 140W, EXPECT MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175W AND 145W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

 

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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Thailand/ Myanmar/ Malaysia: Tropical Storm PABUK 36W 04/0900Z 8.3N 100.7E, moving W 20kt (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 1300Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm PABUK 36W

Thailand and Myanmar beware!

Malaysia be aware!

1901-00-1

 

TS 1901 (Pabuk)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 4 January 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 4 January>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N8°20′ (8.3°)
E100°40′ (100.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N8°40′ (8.7°)
E99°10′ (99.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°05′ (9.1°)
E97°35′ (97.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°50′ (10.8°)
E94°20′ (94.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 7 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°00′ (13.0°)
E90°40′ (90.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

THAILAND

Weather Warning
“Tropical Storm “PABUK””
No. 19 Time Issued : January 4, 2019

At 17.00 p.m. on 4 January 2019, tropical storm “PABUK” over A.Chang Klang, Nakhon Si thammarat or at latitude 8.4 degree north, longitude 99.7 degree east has maximum sustained wind is 65 km/hr. The storm is moving west at a speed of 13 km/hr. It is expected to move to Surat Thani. This will affect the South with widespread rainfalls, and torrential downpours are possible much of the area. People should beware of the severe conditions that cause forest runoffs and flash floods especially over tonight. Affected areas are as followings:

4 January: Torrential downpours and gusty winds much of provinces: Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

5 January: Torrential downpours and gusty wind much of provinces: Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

The strong winds are forecast with waves up to 3-5 meters high in the Gulf and 2-3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. All ships keep ashore lasting 5 January 2019. People in the Gulf should be aware of inshore surges.

The advisory is in effect on 4 January 2019 at 05.45 p.m.

 

(Signed) Phuwieng Prakhammintara

(Mr. Phuwieng Prakhammintara)

Director-General

Thai Meteorological Department

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

(4.1.2019): Weather is a few cloud over the Bay of Bengal and partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea.

Cyclone Warning
Friday, January 4, 2019 – 06:30
No Cyclone Warning

JABATAN METEOROLOGI MALAYSIA
KEMENTERIAN TENAGA, SAINS, TEKNOLOGI, ALAM SEKITAR & PERUBAHAN IKLIM
Jalan Sultan,
46667 Petaling Jaya,
Selangor Darul Ehsan,
Malaysia
Tel:
+603-79678000
Faks:
+603-79578052
Emel:
pcn@met.gov.my

JMM/POCGN(O)/BK-08
Ruj.Kami: JMM.RML06/599/46/JLD.49(26)
Nasihat Ribut Tropika
Dikeluarkan pada 5:45 petang 04 Januari 2019
Kategori: Nasihat Ribut Tropika (PABUK)
Masa Pencerapan: 17:00, 04 Januari 2019
Kedudukan: Latitud 8.3 Utara dan Longitud 100.7 Timur
kira-kira 146 km ke Timur Laut Hat Yai, Thailand.
Pergerakan: Ke arah Barat dengan kelajuan 15 km/j
Jarak dari Bandar terdekat: Kira-kira 216 km ke Timur Laut Arau, Perlis.
Kesan terhadap Malaysia: Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan angin kencang dan laut bergelora di perairan Kelantan dan Selat Melaka Utara.
Dikeluarkan oleh: Pusat Operasi Cuaca & Geofizik Nasional
Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
Kementerian Tenaga, Sains, Teknologi, Alam Sekitar & Perubahan Iklim
JABATAN METEOROLOGI MALAYSIA
KEMENTERIAN TENAGA, SAINS, TEKNOLOGI, ALAM SEKITAR & PERUBAHAN IKLIM
Jalan Sultan,
46667 Petaling Jaya,
Selangor Darul Ehsan,
Malaysia
Tel:
+603-79678000
Faks:
+603-79578052
Emel:
pcn@met.gov.my

JMM/POCGN(O)/BK-08
Our Ref.: JMM.RML06/599/46/JLD.49(26)
Tropical Storm Advisory
Issued at 5:45PM 4 January 2019
Category: Tropical Storm Advisory (PABUK)
Time of Observation: 17:00, 04 January 2019
Location: Latitude 8.3 North and Longitude 100.7 East
approximately 146 km Northeast of Hat Yai, Thailand.
Movement: West 15 km/h
Distance from nearest town: Approximately 216 km Northeast of Arau, Perlis.
Threat to Malaysia: This condition may cause strong winds and rough seas over waters off Kelantan and Northern Straits of Malacca.
Dikeluarkan oleh: Pusat Operasi Cuaca & Geofizik Nasional
Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
Kementerian Tenaga, Sains, Teknologi, Alam Sekitar & Perubahan Iklim

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2019 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PABUK is currently located near 7.2 N 103.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). PABUK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Surat Thani (9.1 N, 99.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Nakhon Si Thammarat (8.4 N, 100.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Chumphon (10.5 N, 99.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Ranong (10.0 N, 98.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Songkhla (7.2 N, 100.6 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Malaysia
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kota Baharu (6.1 N, 102.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
    Phuket (7.9 N, 98.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP27 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 46N 172E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING NE 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW WITHIN NEXT 6
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 50N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 54N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 52N 165E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1020 HPA
AT 41N 132E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 31N 134E ESE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 159E TO 30N 169E 33N 172E 35N 180E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1901 PABUK (1901) 996 HPA AT 08.4N 101.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

THAILAND

Shipping Weather Forecast

Synoptic Situation at January 4, 2019 15:00 LST
At 6.00 p.m. 4 January, Tropical storm “PABUK” over A.Chang Klang Nakhon Si thammarat or located at latitude 8.4 N, longitude 99.7 E. With its maximum sustained winds of 35 knots or 65 km/hr, the storm was moving west-northwest at a speed of 7 knots or 13 km/hr. It expected to move to Surat Thani next time. The strong northeast monsoon prevails across the Gulf with torrential downpours much of the South. The winds are intensifying with wave 3-5 meters high and 2-3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. All ships in the Gulf do not venture out off the sea lasting 5 January.
24-Hour Weather Forecast for Shipping
From January 4, 2019 17:00 – January 5, 2019 17:00 น.
Both sides of Thai gulf Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated torrential rains much of the areas. Northeasterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Andaman sea Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated torrential rains. Northwesterly winds 11-22 knots or 20-40 km/hr. Wave height 2-3 meters and above 3 meters offshore.
Kotabaru to Singapore Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rains. Northwesterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Indochina Very cloudy with scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rains. Northeasterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Issued Date January 4, 2019 17:00

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

BAY BULLETIN
ISSUED ON  4 – 1 – 2019 at 19:00hrs M.S.T

BALLOON   :

PART ONE :  No Storm.

PART TWO   :

SPECIAL FEATURE: According to the observations at (18:30) hrs MST today, the tropical depression (Pabuk) over the Gulf of Thailand and continuously crossed near Chaung Kiang (Thailand). IT is forecast to move westwards and reach to Andaman sea .
FORECAST FOR AREAS BETWEEN LAT. 10.5°N – 16.5°N AND LONG. 92°E
WEATHER    :        Fairlywidespread rain (or)  Thundershower.
VISIBILITY    :        (4) nautical  miles but (1) Nautical mile  in rain.
SURFACE WIND :   North (or ) NorthEast(15-20)kts at times (35) kts
SEAS    :               Rough
WAVE HEIGHT  :    (8-10)Feet

FORECAST FOR AREAS BETWEEN LAT. 16.5°N – 20.5°N AND LONG. 92°E
WEATHER    :      Partly cloudy
VISIBILITY    :      (5) nautical miles but (1) nautical mile in rain.
SURFACE WIND :  North (or ) NorthEast(10-15)kts at times (30) kts
SEAS    :               Moderate
WAVE HEIGHT  :    (4-6)

HOIST            : Signal, LC III, Section (VI)
ADD        :
REPLACE     (MLM, DWE, KONG, COI, YGN, PTH)

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Papua New Guinea/ Australia: Tropical Cyclone PENNY 08P 02/2100Z position near 13.9S 151.0E, moving E 24kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 Jan 2019 2126Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone PENNY 08P

Penny lies over the Coral Sea and is moving away from the Queensland east coast

Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in
intensity as an Australian category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on
Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 18 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Penny) Warning #12
Issued at 02/2100Z

sh0819

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021800Z — NEAR 13.6S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 100 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 150.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 14.7S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 15.4S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 16.0S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 16.4S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 17.1S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 18.0S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 19.5S 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
POSITIONED JUST EAST. A 021723Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MICROWAVE STRUCTURE AND A 021200Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 50
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS. TC 08P WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08P WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-29
CELSIUS) SST SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE. DYNAMIC MODEL
VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND TRACK
SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Penny

Issued at 4:57 am AEST Thursday 3 January 2019. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Penny lies over the Coral Sea and is moving away from the Queensland east coast.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Penny at 4:00 am AEST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.3 degrees South, 149.3 degrees East , 340 kilometres north northwest of Willis Island and 505 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown .
Movement: east at 31 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Penny lies in the northwest Coral Sea and is tracking in an eastwards direction away from the east Queensland coast. Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in intensity as a category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening.

Hazards:

No direct impacts from the system are expected across Queensland in the short-term.

Recommended Action:

Nil.

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 am January 3 1 13.3S 149.3E 55
+6hr 10 am January 3 1 13.9S 151.2E 80
+12hr 4 pm January 3 2 14.4S 152.9E 100
+18hr 10 pm January 3 2 14.8S 154.0E 125
+24hr 4 am January 4 2 15.1S 154.5E 145
+36hr 4 pm January 4 2 15.7S 155.1E 185
+48hr 4 am January 5 1 16.0S 154.9E 220
+60hr 4 pm January 5 tropical low 16.3S 154.4E 255
+72hr 4 am January 6 tropical low 16.7S 153.5E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Thursday

 

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:59 am EST on Thursday 3 January 2019
At 4 am AEST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Penny with central pressure 992 hPa was
located over the northwest Coral Sea near latitude 13.3 south longitude 149.3
east, which is about 340 km north northwest of Willis Island and 505 km east
northeast of Cooktown.

Tropical Cyclone Penny is tracking in an eastwards direction away from the east
Queensland coast. Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in
intensity as a category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on
Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening.

No direct impacts from the system are expected across Queensland in the
short-term.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am AEST Thursday.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Jan, 2019 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PENNY is currently located near 13.6 S 150.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). PENNY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Papua New Guinea
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alotau (10.3 S, 150.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1857UTC 2 JANUARY 2019

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Penny was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal three south (13.3S)
longitude one hundred and forty nine decimal three east (149.3E)
Recent movement : east at 17 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 1800 UTC 03
January.

Winds above 48 knots developing within 50 nautical miles by 0600 UTC 03 January.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 03 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.4 south 152.9 east.
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre
At 1800 UTC 03 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.1 south 154.5 east.
Central pressure 979 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre by 0100
UTC 03 January 2019.

WEATHER PERTH

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.