Vietnam/ Cambodia/ Thailand: Severe Tropical Storm USAGI 33W 24/1500Z near 9.6N 108.1E, moving W Slow 985hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 24 Nov 2018 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm USAGI 33W

VIETNAM BEWARE!

Usagi expected to make landfall over Hochimin, Vietnam from 25-27 November

Cambodia and Thailand be aware!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET JTWC

1829-001

 

STS 1829 (Usagi)
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 24 November 2018

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 24 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N9°35′ (9.6°)
E108°05′ (108.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°55′ (9.9°)
E107°10′ (107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°30′ (10.5°)
E106°30′ (106.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°35′ (11.6°)
E105°30′ (105.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1010 hPa
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

VIETNAM NCHMF

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Saturday, November 24, 2018 9.9 108 TS 76 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

04 Sunday, November 25, 2018 10.1 107.3 TS 76 km/hour
10 Sunday, November 25, 2018 10.5 106.4 46 TD km/hour
22 Sunday, November 25, 2018 11.3 104.5 Low 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 02:30 AM Sunday, November 25, 2018
Satellite Imagery

xxxxx

Thai Meteorological Department

Weather Warning
“Tropical Storm “Usagi””
No. 9 Time Issued : November 24, 2018

At 10.00 p.m. on 24 November, typhoon USAGI due 170 km Southeast of Hochimin, Vietnam, or latitude 9.7 N, longitude 107.8 E, downgrade to tropical storm with the maximum sustained winds of 110 km/hr. Moving west at a speed about 15 km/hr, it is forecast to make landfall over Hochimin, Vietnam from 25-27 November and decline, respectively. All travelers stay tuned for the weather updated.

The advisory is in effect on 24 November 2018 at 11.00 p.m.

The next issue will be on 25 November 2018 at 5.00 a.m.

 

(Signed) Phuwieng Prakhammintara

(Mr. Phuwieng Prakhammintara)

Deputy Director-General

Acting Director-General

Thai Meteorological Department

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT

Typhoon USAGI is currently located near 9.7 N 108.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). USAGI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. USAGI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Can Tho (10.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 33W (Usagi) Warning #26
Issued at 24/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 9.7N 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 108.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 10.2N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 10.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 11.0N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 11.2N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 108.0E.
TYPHOON 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO
CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

xxxx

Other

DocR U24
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP27 RJTD 241200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS FOR NEXT 18 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 155E 48N 155E 48N 180E 32N 180E
36N 165E 41N 155E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 6 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 49N 165E 55N 164E 60N 170E 60N 180E
48N 180E 49N 165E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1020 HPA AT 39N 131E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 57N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 32N 132E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 39N 143E EAST 15 KT.
COLD FRONT FROM 31N 180E TO 30N 177E 29N 174E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 174E TO 29N 170E 28N 160E 27N 153E 22N
144E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1828 MAN-YI (1828) 955 HPA AT 18.6N 136.3E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1829 USAGI (1829) 985 HPA AT 09.7N 108.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Thailand Shipping Weather Forecast

Synoptic Situation at November 24, 2018 21:00 LST
At 7.00 p.m. on 24 November, Typhoon USAGI centered at latitude 9.7 ° N and longitude 108.0 °E has downgraded to tropical storm the maximum sustained winds of 60 knots or 110 km/hr. The storm is moving west with a speed of 7 knots or 15 km/hr. It is forecast to make landfall over southern Vietnam from 25-27 November and decline. The northeasterly monsoon across the Gulf bring about isolated rain over the South.
24-Hour Weather Forecast for Shipping
From November 24, 2018 23:00 – November 25, 2018 23:00 น.
Both sides of Thai gulf
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-18 knots or 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters and above 2 meters in thundershower areas.
Andaman sea
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-16 knots or 15-30 km/hr. Wave height about 1 meter and 1-2 meters in thundershower areas.
Kotabaru to Singapore
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-16 knots or 15-30 km/hr. Wave height about 1 meter.
Indochina
Cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 11-24 knots or 20-45 km/hr. Wave height 2-4 meters and above 4 meters in thundershower areas.
Issued Date November 24, 2018 23:00

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Minami Daito Jima/ Okinawa/ Amami Ōshima/ Japan: Typhoon MANYI 34W 23/1800Z near 17.1N 135.1E, moving N 09kt 955hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 23 Nov 2018 2018Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON MAN-YI 34W

Minami Daito Jima, Okinawa, Amami Ōshima and Japan mainland be aware!

Man-Yi is a storm equivalent to a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 231200Z IS 23 FEET – JTWC

1828-001

TY 1828 (Man-yi)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 23 November 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 23 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N17°05′ (17.1°)
E135°05′ (135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 520 km (280 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 24 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°00′ (18.0°)
E135°10′ (135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 24 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°05′ (18.1°)
E135°00′ (135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N19°00′ (19.0°)
E131°55′ (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°40′ (21.7°)
E131°00′ (131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 34W (Man-yi) Warning #16
Issued at 23/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 16.6N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 135.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 17.9N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 18.5N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 18.9N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 19.5N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 21.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 24.0N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 26.7N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 135.3E.
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 729 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NWS GUAM

 

 

 

257
WTPQ31 PGUM 231531
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Man-yi (34W) Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP342018
200 AM ChST Sat Nov 24 2018

…TYPHOON MAN-YI BEGINS TO WEAKEN…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
Location…16.9N 135.3E

About 545 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 565 miles north-northwest of Ulithi
About 675 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 705 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds…100 mph
Present movement…northwest…335 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located
near Latitude 16.9 degrees North and Longitude 135.3 degrees East.
Man-yi is moving northwest at 15 mph. It is expected to turn north
tonight then back to the west-northwest Saturday afternoon, with a
decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 100 mph. Man-yi is
forecast to maintain this intensity today, then slowly weaken the
next few days.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 45 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 165
miles east of the center and up to 155 miles west of the center.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM this morning.

$$

Ziobro

Guam Alerts

Micronesian Alerts

xxxxxxxxx

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT (NOTE DATE)

Tropical Storm MAN-YI is currently located near 8.7 N 146.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). MAN-YI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DocR M22

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WWJP28 RJTD 231500
EMERGENCY WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 958 HPA
AT 45N 167E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 44N 175E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 43N 174W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 982 HPA AT 43N 160E
MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1828 MAN-YI (1828) 955 HPA AT 16.6N 134.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1829 USAGI (1829) 985 HPA AT 10.5N 110.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Vietnam/ Cambodia/ South China Sea: Tropical Storm Toraji 32W 17/1200Z 11.2N 110.7E, moving WSW 10kt 1004hPa (RSMCTokyo) – Published 17 Nov 2018 1330Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Toraji 32W

Vietnam Beware! Cambodia be aware!

JMA logo

1827-00

TS 1827 (Toraji)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 17 November 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 17 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N11°10′ (11.2°)
E110°40′ (110.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 170 km (90 NM)
SE 110 km (60 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°55′ (10.9°)
E109°05′ (109.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N10°00′ (10.0°)
E105°50′ (105.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

NCHMF VIETNAM

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

18 Saturday, November 17, 2018 11.0 111.1 TS 65 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

18 Sunday, November 18, 2018 11.2 109.3 TS 65 km/hour
18 Monday, November 19, 2018 10.6 106.5 TD 46 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:45 PM Saturday, November 17, 2018
Satellite Imagery

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1827 TORAJI (1827) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1004 HPA
AT 11.2N 110.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 10.9N 109.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 10.0N 105.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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India/ Sri Lanka/ Bay of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm GAJA 07B 142100Z 11.7N 83.6E, moving SW 08kt (JTWC) Expected to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm within 12hrs (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 14 Nov 2018 2100Z (GMT/UTC)

CYCLONIC STORM GAJA 07B

India, Sri Lanka and Bay of Bengal be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 07B (Gaja) Warning #17
Issued at 14/2100Z

io0718

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141800Z — NEAR 11.8N 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 84.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 11.3N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 10.9N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 10.8N 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 10.8N 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 10.9N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 11.2N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 11.4N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 141548Z ASCAT
PASS WHICH SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS, EXTENDING ABOUT 20 NM FROM THE
CENTER, IN ALL QUADRANTS. LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFICATION. TC 07B IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN INTACT AND
CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24,
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 07B TO INTENSIFY TO ABOUT 70
KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN INDIA
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, TC 07B WILL EMERGE
OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEAR 35 KNOTS
THROUGH TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH PREDICTS
RECURVATURE AND SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON
200 NM OF MODEL SPREAD (WITHOUT GFS) BY TAU 120, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z,
151500Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

IMD Logo

ftrack IMD G14

sector-ir

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 29
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) NATIONAL
CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 60 HOURS ISSUED AT 1600 UTC OF
14.11.2018 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 14.11.2018.
CYCLONIC STORM ‘GAJA’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘GAJA’ OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE 12.2°N AND LONGITUDE 84.0°E, ABOUT 410 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI
(43278) (TAMIL NADU) AND 480 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43347) (TAMIL NADU). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND CROSS TAMIL NADU COAST BETWEEN PAMBAN
(43363) AND CUDDALORE (43329) DURING 1200 & 1500 UTC OF 15TH NOVEMBER AS A CYCLONIC
STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 80 KMPH-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
14.11.18/1500 12.2/84.0 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
14.11.18/1800 12.1/83.6 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/0000 11.7/82.7 90-100 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/0600 11.2/81.8 90-100 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/1200 10.8/80.5 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
16.11.18/0000 10.6/78.9 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
16.11.18/1200 10.5/77.1 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
17.11.18/0000 10.4/75.3 20-30 gusting to 40 Low
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER 2018, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS C.I. 2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER BAY
OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 11.0°N TO 16.0°N AND LONGITUDE 82.0°E TO 86.0°E.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 86°C.

AT 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER, A BOUY LOCATED AT 13.5°N/84.2°E REPORTED A
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1005.8 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 50°/
23 KNOTS. ANOTHER BOUY LOCATED AT 14°N/87°E REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 1009 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 110°/8 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. STATE OF
SEA IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 5 WITH
AMPLITUDE CLOSE TO 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT 2 DAYS WITH
AMPLITUDE LESS THAN THAN 1. HENCE MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL DURING
NEXT 2 DAYS. THUS, IT WILL FAVOUR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-29°C
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL(TCHP) IS 50-80 KJ/CM2 AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. IT IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OF THE
ORDER 10X10-5 SECOND-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL VORTICITY
IS OF THE ORDER 120X10-6 SECOND-1 TO SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER OF 20X10-5 SECOND-1 TO THE NORTHEAST
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
OVER THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALSO ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. AS PER THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY, WARM AIR ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE NEAR NORTH TAMIL NADU AND ANDHRA PRADESH
COASTS. CLOUD IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD ORGANISATION WITH
BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRE FROM NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
SECTORS RESULTING IN CURVED BAND PATTERN FOR THE SYSTEM. THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS FOVOURABLE FOR INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE WHICH CAN LEAD TO
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ALL THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 12
HOURS INTO A MARGINAL SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. HOWEVER, WHILE MOVING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA WHICH CAN INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFIFCATION OF THE SYSTEM AND
RATHER CAN CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG LAT 15°N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST (ARABIAN SEA) AND THE COL REGION TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TILL LANDFALL. THEREAFTER IT WILL MOVE IN A NEAR
WESTWARDS DIRECTION WITH INCREASE IN SPEED OF MOVEMENT.
(D.JOARDAR)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI

WEATHER FORECAST FOR 15th NOVEMBER 2018

(Issued at 1200 noon on 14th November 2018)

The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over the Central Bay of Bengal is now located approximately 660km away from Kankasanturai to the northeast of Sri Lanka, near latitude-13.1N, Longitude-85.3E at 05.30a.m. today.

 

Under the influence of this system showery and windy condition will enhance over the Northern province from tomorrow evening.

Showers or thundershowers at times will occur over the Northern province. Very heavy falls above 150mm can be expected in the Jaffna peninsula. Heavy falls above 100mm can be expected in other areas in the Northern province.

Several spells of showers will occur in Anuradhapura and Puttalam districts. Mainly fair weather will prevail elsewhere.

Very strong winds (60-70) kmph, gusting up to 80kmph can be expected over Northern province particularly over the Jaffna peninsula from tomorrow evening.

HIMAWARI Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GAJA is currently located near 12.3 N 84.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). GAJA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pondicherry (11.9 N, 79.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 141800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 14 NOVEMBER 2018.

PART:-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM \u2018GAJA\u2019 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HRS IST OF 14 TH NOVEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.2 DEG E, ABOUT 430 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU) AND 510 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (TAMIL NADU). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND CROSS TAMIL NADU COAST BETWEEN PAMBAN AND CUDDALORE DURING 15 TH NOVEMBER EVENING AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 80-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH (.)

PART:-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E:
N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 62 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 55 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
4)E OF 70 DEG E NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E: NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 71 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: N-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE W OF 66
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 72 DEG E
AND S OF 13 DEG N (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 21 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA :FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA :10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 90 DEG E
:CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPRED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 5 DEG N: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.5-4.0 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS TO THE W OF 90
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 18 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 20 DEG N: 9.0-12.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 4.0-9.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS \u2013
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 14 DEG N ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS (.)
2)S OF 14 DEG N :CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 18 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 20 DEG N:4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
—————————————
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++

Sri Lanka

WEATHER FORECAST FOR SEA AREAS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING

NEXT 24 HOURS (Issued at 1200 noon on 14th November2018)

The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over the Central Bay of Bengal is now located approximately 660km away from Kankasanturai to the northeast of Sri Lanka, near latitude-13.1N, Longitude-85.3E at 05.30a.m. today. It is very likely to move west-southwestwards and intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours.

Under the influence of this system, winds can be strengthen and seas will be very rough over sea areas off coast extending from Batticaloa to Mannar via Trincomalee and Kankasanturai.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea areas off coast extending from Potuvil to Mannar via Trincomalee and Kankasanturai.

Showers or thundershowers will occur in the sea areas extending from Trincomalee to Puttalam via Kankasanturai. Heavy showers or thundershowers can be expected in the sea areas extending from Mullaitivu to Mannar via Kankasanturai.

Winds will be North-westerly to Westerly over the sea areas around the island and speed will be 30-40 kmph.

Sea areas to the North and East of the island will be very rough at times as the wind speed can increase up to (70-80) kmph at times. Sea areas off southern coast can be rough at times as the wind speed can increase up to (50-60) kmph.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar/ Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Alcide 03S 101500Z nr 12.9S 52.7E, moving NW 01kt (JTWC) – Published 10 Nov 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Alcide 03S

Madagascar, Providence Island and Seychelles be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Alcide) Warning #18
Issued at 10/0900Z

sh0319

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 12.9S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 52.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 12.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 12.5S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 12.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 12.0S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 10.6S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 52.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH COMPACT RAIN
BANDS FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREAKS
SPIRALING INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL AT 26-27 CELSIUS, COOLED
BY UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE PROLONGED QS MOTION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST ASSUMES
STEERING. INCREASING VWS AND COOL SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD BUT WITH A GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN
EVENTUAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

Bulletin du 10 novembre à 16H27 locales Réunion:
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALCIDE.
Pression estimée au centre: 997 HPA.
Position le 10 novembre à 16 heures locales Réunion: 12.7 Sud / 52.6 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 955 km au secteur: NORD-NORD-OUEST.
Distance de Mayotte : 800 km au secteur: EST.
Déplacement: Quasi-stationnaire .
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le “Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique” (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

Bulletin of November 10 at 16:27 local Réunion:
TROPICAL STORM MODERATE ALKID.
Estimated pressure at the center: 997 HPA.
Position November 10 at 4 pm Réunion: 12.7 South / 52.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 955 km to the sector: NORD-NORD-OUEST.
Distance from Mayotte: 800 km to the area: EST.
Displacement: Quasi-stationary.
This newsletter is now complete.
Consult the “Cyclonic Activity Bulletin” (see link below)
to get the forecasts on this system.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 101308 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 52.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 00 UTC:
12.6 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 12 UTC:
12.4 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Cocos Island/ Home Island: Tropical Cyclone FOUR 04S 100900Z position near 5.5S 90.7E, moving S 05kt (JTWC) – Published 10 Nov 2018 1510Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FOUR 04S

Cocos Island/ Home Island Beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 8 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Four) Warning #01
Issued at 10/0900Z

sh0419

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOITN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100221ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 5.5S 90.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 90.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 5.6S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 5.6S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 5.4S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 5.4S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 6.1S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 7.6S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 9.3S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 5.5S 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 100353Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS)
STATE UP TO TAU 48 AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARD, IT WILL
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
ASSUMES STEERING. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72, FUELED BY INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AND
TRAJECTORIES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE QS STATE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS ANS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO22 PGTW 100230)//
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta

bom_logo_clr

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FQAU21 AMMC 100715
40:2:1:31:11:01:00
IDY10240
SECURITE

High Seas Forecast for Northern METAREA 8/10/11
NORTHERN AREA: COAST AT 125E TO 12S125E TO 12S90E TO 0S90E TO 0S142E TO COAST
AT 142E

Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 10 November 2018

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Part 1 Warnings
Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected.

Nil.

Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC
Refer to latest warnings for boundary of affected area and type of weather
system.

Southeasterly trade flow over most of area.

Low 1006hPa near 04S092E. Forecast 1005hPa near 03S092E at 111200UTC.

Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.

Within 180nm of low:
Clockwise winds 15/25 knots increasing to 20/30 knots within 90nm of low in
southern and western semicircle. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell.

Remainder west of line 05S098E 07S104E 12S107E:
Southeast quarter winds 15/25 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate
swell.

Elsewhere:
Winds not exceeding 20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell.

Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms within 180nm of low. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms remainder mainly, north of line 07S142E 02S131E
04S117E 10S113E 10S090E. Isolated showers elsewhere. Visibility reducing below
2nm in precipitation.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

The next routine forecast will be issued at 19:15 UTC Saturday.

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mexico: Tropical Storm XAVIER 25E 05/1800Z 18.7N 106.5W, moving WNW ~3.77kt 999mb (NHC FL) – Published 05 Nov 2018 1855Z

Tropical Storm XAVIER 25E

…XAVIER GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY SHOWERS WINDING DOWN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO…NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 051743
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
1100 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

…XAVIER GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY SHOWERS WINDING DOWN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…18.7N 106.5W
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 106.5 West. Xavier is
moving a little bit faster toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7
km/h), and an additional increase in forward speed is expected later
today. A westward motion is forecast by early Tuesday, continuing
through Thursday. On the forecast track, Xavier’s center is
expected to continue moving farther away from the southwestern coast
of Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Colima and Jalisco, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches
possible. This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still possible within the
warning area during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 5 Nov, 2018 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm XAVIER is currently located near 18.5 N 106.2 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). XAVIER is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 25E (Xavier) Warning #12
Issued at 05/1600Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25E (XAVIER) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
051200Z — NEAR 18.4N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 106.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 18.7N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 18.9N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 18.9N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 18.8N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 18.5N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 106.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 25E (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1046 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND
061600Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FZPN02 KWBC 051725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 07.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW NW OF AREA 58N169E 967 MB MOVING E 20 KT NEXT 12 HOURS THEN
TURNING NE 25 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 62N175E TO 59N173W TO
50N179W. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 480 NM S
QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 23 FT. ALSO WITHIN 150
NM NE AND E OF THE FRONT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 48N W OF 176W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 58N173E 972 MB. WITHIN 360 NM
SE AND 420 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N175W 985 MB. N OF 53N W OF 167W WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 29 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
51N163E TO 43N175E TO 43N180W TO 54N167W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
TO 19 FT…HIGHEST S QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA 67N164W 999 MB. N OF 62N W OF
ALASKA WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN BERING
SEA BETWEEN 162W AND 179E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 55N131W 1004 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 480 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 41N E OF 153W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. FROM 42N TO 56N E OF
138W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN W TO NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 45N168W 1007 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE AND 420 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO
17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW TO 46N163W TO 45N157W…WITHIN 180 NM E OF A FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 43N157W TO 36N160W AND WITHIN 600 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N157W 1004 MB. WITHIN 420 NM E QUADRANT
AND FROM 43N TO 50N BETWEEN 159W AND 165W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT…HIGHEST SW. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 54N BETWEEN
156W AND 175W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT…HIGHEST SW OF
LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N151W 998 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S…AND 360
NM W AND NW QUADRANTS AND OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF A FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE LOW TO 55N148W TO 53N140W TO 48N133W WINDS 25 TO
40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N168E TO 35N160E AREA
OF E TO SE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 30N168E TO 35N160E AREA OF E
TO SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 169E AREA OF E WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 175W AREA OF E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

..GALE WARNING…
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 52N160E 1009 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 56N166E 996 MB. WITHIN 480 NM E
AND 720 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 33N TO 40N BETWEEN 121W AND 127W AREA OF NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 42N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W AREA OF
N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 43N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W AREA OF
N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N TO 38N BETWEEN
156W AND 175W AREA OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN AREA FROM
45N157W TO 43N149W TO 39N158W TO 45N157W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.

.HIGH 37N142W 1029 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N139W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N138W 1027 MB.

.HIGH 47N144W 1027 MB MOVING SE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N133W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N132W 1027 MB.

.HIGH 53N165W 1023 MB MOVING NE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 39N172E 1033 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N180W 1035 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 45N170E 1031 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N177W 1035 MB.

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON NOV 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE NOV 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED NOV 07.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM XAVIER NEAR 18.5N 106.2W 999 MB AT 1500 UTC NOV
05 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS…100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM XAVIER NEAR 18.9N 108.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN
107W AND 109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW XAVIER NEAR 18.8N
111.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW XAVIER NEAR 18.5N
113.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N TO NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 07N104W 1010 MB. FROM 02N TO 05N
BETWEEN 98W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW
SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 01S BETWEEN 81W AND 86W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1515 UTC MON NOV 5…

T.S. XAVIER…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT.

LOW PRES NEAR 14N118W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 08N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N94W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 14N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N129W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N138W TO 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N E OF 99W.

.FORECASTER NR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 05 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 06 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 07 2018.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 29N158E 1015 MB. E TO
S WINDS 30 TO 35 KT N OF 28N W OF 165E. E TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF 23N W OF 165E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N165E 1015 MB. WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITHIN
240 NM OF LOW CENTER NE SEMICIRCLE. E TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 28N160E 23N170E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 25N170E 1015 MB. WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITHIN
240 NM OF LOW CENTER NE SEMICIRCLE. NE TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 28N160E 25N170E 21N179E.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 07N174W 1007 MB MOVING WNW 15 KT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF LOW N SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS FROM 10N TO
04N BETWEEN 175W AND 164W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE
FROM 14N TO 02N BETWEEN 178W AND 164W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N178W 1006 MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF LOW N SEMICIRCLE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N177E 1005 MB. SEE WINDS BELOW.

.COLD FRONT 30N166W 27N172W 24N179W MOVING SE 10 KT THENCE A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N170W. NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT N OF FRONT W
OF 172W. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF STATIONARY FRONT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF STATIONARY FRONT W
OF 172W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N162W 26N170W 23N179W 23N170E. NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF FRONT. .48 HOUR
FORECAST FRONT 30N162W TO 18N176E. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS
8 TO 10 FT N OF FRONT.

.E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 10N BETWEEN 166E AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 12N BETWEEN
168E AND 174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 16N TO 12N
BETWEEN 174E AND 176W.

.SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY 20N170W 06N170W 14N164E 20N164E
20N170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS TO 11 FT WITHIN BOUNDED BY 20N163E
20N175W 13N170W 06N177W 12N163E 20N163E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT BOUNDED BY 18N179W 08N179W
08N172E 15N164E 18N170E 18N179W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ITCZ 09N140W 07N147W 09N155W 08N163W TO 10N170W. SCATTERED
STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF ITCZ W OF 156W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ E OF 156W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 16N TO 00N BETWEEN 160E AND 179W.

$$
.HONOLULU FORECASTER.=

===========================================================================================================

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