Vietnam/ South China Sea: Tropical Depression Nineteen (19W) 131500Z POSITION near 15.8N 110.9E, moving W at 07 knots (JTWC) – Published 13 sept 2015 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Nineteen (19W)

VIETNAM BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC) 

Tropical Depression Nineteen

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Tropical Depression Nineteen

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

TD a

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TD
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 13 September 2015

<Analyses at 13/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N15°35′(15.6°)
E111°30′(111.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 14/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N15°40′(15.7°)
E108°55′(108.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

VIETNAM

National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING
TC TRACKS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Sunday, September 13, 2015 15.7 111.7 TD 56 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Monday, September 14, 2015 15.7 109.0 TS 65 km/hour
22 Tuesday, September 15, 2015 15.2 105.8 Low 28 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 02:30 AM Monday, September 14, 2015

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 19W (Nineteen) Warning #01
Issued at 13/1500Z

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1915.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19W_131132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130951SEP15//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
131200Z — NEAR 15.8N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 111.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 15.8N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 16.1N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 15.9N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 15.3N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 110.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. THIS
MESSAGE SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 130951Z SEP 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21
PGTW 131000).//
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 131200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 44N 173E 48N 180E 33N 180E 33N 172E 44N 173E.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 15.8N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 15.4N 109.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 170E 60N 180E 50N 180E 43N 170E 40N 160E 38N 150E 38N
143E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1014 HPA AT 47N 148E NE 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 14N 152E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 08N 176E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 34N 123E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 43N 169E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 47N 148E TO 49N 151E 50N 156E.
COLD FRONT FROM 47N 148E TO 44N 146E 43N 144E 36N 141E 30N 136E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: TD 7 becomes Tropical Storm Grace – 06/0900Z 12.4N 28.5W, moving W 12 knots (NHC) – Updated 06 Sept 2015 0915Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Grace

….GRACE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC……NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

084045W5_NL_sm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 060839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015

…GRACE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…12.4N 28.5W
ABOUT 390 MI…630 KM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H12.4N 28.5W
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 28.5 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through
Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 36 to 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Other Reports

TD 7 Forms in the Eastern Atlantic; Likely to Become Tropical Storm Grace
By Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:46 AM EDT on September 05, 2015
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground

Tropical Depression Seven spun into life on Saturday morning in the waters a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde islands in the Eastern Atlantic, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Grace by Sunday.

See more: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3102

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA2 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0751

WONT50 LFPW 060751
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 399, SUNDAY 6 SEPTEMBER 2015 AT 0745 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SUNDAY 6 AT 00 UTC.
NEW LOW EXPECTED 1009 37N43W BY 06/12 UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AND
EXPECTED 1001 43N31W BY 07/12 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM GRACE 1006 OVER WEST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 12.8N 27.5W
BY 06/03 UTC, MOVING WEST 12 KT AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING.

ALTAIR.
FROM 07/06 UTC TO 07/12 UTC AT LEAST.
SOUTH LOCALLY 8 IN WEST.

SIERRA LEONE.
FROM 06/09 UTC TO 07/12 UTC AT LEAST.
CYCLONIC 8 IN WEST, INCREASING 8 OR 9 AT END. GUSTS.
BECOMING HIGH.

BT
*

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR
24.1N 43.1W. FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…OR 320
DEGREES…09 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ARE
BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC…AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT21
KNHC…AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N
BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 28N
BETWEEN 41W AND 46W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 12.8N
27.5W. GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST…OR 280 DEGREES…12
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE BEING ISSUED
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC…AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE
BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC…AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 09N34W…MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
65W/66W…FROM PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD…MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD…WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA…AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N68W…TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W
AND 73W IN SOUTHERN HAITI.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W TO 15N20W AND 15N22W…AND FROM 12N30W TO 12N33W AND
11N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N34W TO 09N43W 10N50W AND
10N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 05N TO
11N FROM 17W EASTWARD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

…DISCUSSION…

FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO…INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N81W SOUTH
CAROLINA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER…TO THE TAMPA FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA…TO 24N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO…TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD…THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
90W EASTWARD…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO…FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W…TO 27N70W…ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS…TO 25N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO…ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 22N
NORTHWARD FROM 93W EASTWARD. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL
SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR
TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1015
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE
SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES…FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL
SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR
TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND
07N78W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER…INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG IN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 09N77W TO 13N83W. THIS IS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC…ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…ARE 0.69 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

…HISPANIOLA…

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA…AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N68W…TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W
AND 73W IN SOUTHERN HAITI.

CURRENT CONDITIONS…IN HAITI…CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W IN
SOUTHERN HAITI. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO…IN SANTIAGO…AND IN PUERTO PLATA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR
SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA…WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN A COL.
TWO INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED…AND TROPICAL STORM GRACE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N30W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W…AWAY FROM T.D. FRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA II

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

India/ Bangladesh: Depression over NE Bay of Bengal & coast areas of Bangladesh & W Bengal may become Deep Depression in 24 hrs (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 270715 1035z (GMT/UTC)

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre - Tropical Cyclones, India Meteorological Department - Government of IndiaRegional Specialized Meteorological Centre
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE

TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 27072015

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 27072015
BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 27 July, 2015
THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING COASTAL AREAS OF
BANGLADESH & WEST BENGAL
REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 15HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT
0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 27 JULY 2015 NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 90.2 EAST, CLOSE TO WEST OF KHEPUPARA
(41960). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR SOME MORE TIME AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION

DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CI. 1.5  PATTERN IS SHEAR PATTERN
.
DISTANCE BETWEEN CENTRE AND CLOUD MASS IS NEARLY 100 KMS.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVEC
TION OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL
.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 27TH JULY 2015.
(DUTY OFFICER)
RSMC, NEW DELHI

mapimage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abiosair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 270000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/270000Z-271800ZJUL2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.3N 90.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 69 NM WEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BANGLADESH COASTLINE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE BAY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A 261533Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED 30 KNOT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE;
HOWEVER, FUTHER ORGANIZATION IS HAMPERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) IN ADDITION TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE INTO INDIA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IF THE DISTURBANCE WERE TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH,
THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY AND GOOD OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A MEDIUM//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

FQIN01 DEMS 270900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 27 JULY 2015
—————————————————-
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING

PART II:-THE DEPRESSION OVER NE-BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJ.
COASTAL AREAS OF BAGLA DESH AND WEST BENGAL MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST -WARDS AND LAY CENTERED NEAR LAT 22.0 DEG N/
LONG 90.2 DEG E(.)SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN PRACTICALY STATIONRY
FOR SOME MORE TIMES AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS.(.)

AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AT MSL RUNS FROM KARNATAKA COAST TO
KERALA COAST PERSISTS(.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
—————————————————
A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 70 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E:WSW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)2-3 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 70 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E:WSW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)2-3 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-SSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-SSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

METAREA VIII_N

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Minamidaitōjima/ Okinawa/ AmamiŌshima/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Halola (01C) 24/1500Z position near 25.3N 130.6E, moving W at 07 knots (JTWC) – Updated 240715 1508z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Halola (01C)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Minamidaitōjima, Amami Ōshima, Okinawa,  Japan Mainland and South Korea BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET (JTWC)

Note: There are differences between forecast agencies

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1512-00 24
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15072415 24

TY 1512 (HALOLA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 24 July 2015

<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00′(25.0°)
E131°05′(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Estimate for 24/13 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00′(25.0°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°30′(25.5°)
E130°25′(130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 50km(25NM)
Storm warning area ALL120km(65NM)
<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10′(26.2°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°05′(27.1°)
E128°55′(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 110km(60NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10′(28.2°)
E128°25′(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
CURRENT WARNINGS - Click image for more detail

CURRENT WARNINGS – Click image for more detail

Korea Meteorological Administration

Typhoon

No.12 HALOLA

Issued at(KST) : 2015.07.24. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2015.07.24. 12:00 Analysis 24.9 131.0 970 35 126 240
(SW 200)
Strong Small W 14
2015.07.25. 00:00 Forecast 26.4 129.6 975 32 115 240
(WSW 200)
Normal Small NW 18 60
2015.07.25. 12:00 Forecast 28.6 128.2 980 29 104 220
(W 180)
Normal Small NNW 24 140
2015.07.26. 00:00 Forecast 31.4 127.6 985 27 97 200
(WNW 170)
Normal Small NNW 26 185
2015.07.26. 12:00 Forecast 34.1 128.6 990 24 86 180
(WNW 100)
Weak Small NNE 26 230
2015.07.27. 00:00 Forecast 36.5 130.9 996 20 72 130
(NW 70)
Weak Small NE 28 275
2015.07.27. 12:00 Forecast 37.9 134.7 1002 ENE 31

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 01C (Halola) Warning #58
Issued at 24/1500Z

cp0115 24a

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

01C_241132sair 24

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 25.0N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 26.2N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 28.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 31.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 34.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 38.3N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 130.6E.
TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Hurricane HALOLA (01C) currently located near 25.0 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map
Hurricane HALOLA: Storm-centered zoom at 24 hours lead (Image TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241200

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965 HPA
AT 25.0N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 37.6N 134.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Marine Warnings: SEA AROUND AMAMI
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

KAGOSHIMA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA AROUND AMAMI
GALE WARNING FOR SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA AROUND AMAMI
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 30KT AND SE-LY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH MAX 75KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 35KT FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

OKINAWA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
GALE WARNING FOR SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
EASTERLY TO SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 70KT

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 55KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 45KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Other warnings at METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ China: Tropical Storm Kujira (08W) 21/1200Z at 16.6N 111.3E almost stationary (JMA) – Updated 210615 1315z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Kujira 08W
(upgraded by JMA from TD at 09:50 UTC 21 June 2015)

Hainan Island and western Guangdong in China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Japan Meteorological agency

1508-00

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15062115

TS 1508 (KUJIRA)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 21 June 2015

<Analyses at 21/09 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N16°25′(16.4°)
E111°20′(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 22/09 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°40′(18.7°)
E111°10′(111.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E110°10′(110.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°55′(22.9°)
E109°20′(109.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

Hong Kong Observatory

Tropical Depression KUJIRA
at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Position: 16.5 N, 111.3 E (about 710 km south-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 55 km/h
Tropical Depression Kujira will intensify slightly, and move north in the general direction of Hainan Island and western Guangdong in the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 22 June 2015 19.0 N 111.1 E Tropical Storm 75 km/h
17:00 HKT 23 June 2015 21.2 N 110.1 E Tropical Storm 65 km/h
17:00 HKT 24 June 2015 23.7 N 108.8 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
17:00 HKT 25 June 2015 25.9 N 107.4 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

Download 256km Radar from HKO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 08W (Kujira) Warning #04
Issued at 21/0900Z

wp0815

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/08W_210532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 16.4N 111.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 111.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 17.4N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 18.8N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 20.2N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 21.4N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 23.3N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 111.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 210600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 141E
42N 144E 47N 152E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 160E 30N
140E 37N 152E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 32N 140E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 52N 152E NE 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 38N 161E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 34N 124E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 40N 134E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 57N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 37N 149E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 168E NE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 57N 171E ENE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 110E TO 28N 116E 26N 126E 28N 135E 32N 140E
31N 147E 30N 156E 33N 163E 38N 167E 38N 171E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1508 KUJIRA (1508) 996 HPA AT 16.4N 111.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Hong Kong Observatory

Bulletin issued at 18:30 HKT 21/Jun/2015
Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 210900 UTC, Tropical Depression Kujira (1508) with central pressure 992 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of one six point five degrees north (16.5 N) one one one point three degrees east (111.3 E) and is forecast to move north at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 120 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 220900 UTC
One nine point zero degrees north (19.0 N)
One one one point one degrees east (111.1 E)
Maximum winds 40 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 230900 UTC
Two one point two degrees north (21.2 N)
One one zero point one degrees east (110.1 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 240900 UTC
Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N)
One zero eight point eight degrees east (108.8 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 250900 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1508 KUJIRA (1508) 992 HPA
AT 16.6N 111.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.2N 111.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.5N 110.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.2N 108.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Other warnings can be found at

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Tropical Depression BILL continues to track through N Arkansas, leaving 2 dead in Oklahoma – Flash flood warnings current – Published 190615 1600z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression BILL

FLASH FLOOD & FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENT (Scroll down for more)

Authorities in central Oklahoma have recovered the body of an 80-year-old woman from a car partially submerged in floodwaters. Pottawatomie County Undersheriff Travis Palmer said, the rescue crews in a boat removed the body Thursday evening. They were responding to a report of a vehicle on its side in a flooded area near Macomb, about 45 miles southeast of Oklahoma City. Palmer says it appeared the woman ignored barricades and tried to drive through floodwaters that rose as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill dropped up to 10 inches of rain on parts of the state. The woman wasn’t immediately identified. The state medical examiner will rule on the cause of death. Earlier Thursday, authorities recovered the body of a 2-year-old boy who was swept from his father’s arms by floodwaters in Ardmore a day before. More than 5,000 young people at a Baptist church camp in southern Oklahoma are being sent home early as the nearby Washita River is expected to reach historic levels. Baptist General Convention of Oklahoma Director Anthony Jordan announced Thursday that campers at Falls Creek near Davis are being sent home, although he said the camp was not directly at risk of flooding. Jordan said in a statement that camp officials were concerned about their ability to provide general maintenance and trash service because of flooding in nearby areas. Jordan says camp activities are being suspended for the rest of the week. Falls Creek spokesman James Swain says there were about 5,400 campers at Falls Creek this week. Authorities have recovered the body of a 2-year-old Oklahoma boy who was swept away by floodwaters while the remnants of a tropical storm were moving through the state.

Ardmore police Capt. Eric Hamblin says Jeremiah Mayer’s body was found Thursday afternoon in a creek about 30 yards from where he was last seen after being swept from his father’s arms late Wednesday. Hamblin says the father was fleeing his home on foot when the floodwater overtook him and swept the boy away. He says the father had to be rescued from the water, which rose 12 to 15 feet in less than an hour. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill dumped about 10 inches of rain on the area overnight. Authorities have partly reopened a section of a major highway connecting Oklahoma City and Dallas but say it could be days before it can be completely reopened due to a rockslide and high water. The Oklahoma Highway Patrol says northbound traffic on Interstate 35 is being detoured for a four-mile stretch while transportation crews and contractors look to stabilize the rock face next to the road. A tropical depression dumped an estimated 10 inches of rain on the area and helped trigger the rockslide. It says the northbound closure through the Arbuckle Mountains could last for several days is urging motorists to use alternate routes on U.S. Highways 81 or 69. Meanwhile, the agency has reopened the southbound lanes of I-35. Traffic is heavily congested.
Friday, 19 June, 2015 at 10:36 (10:36 AM) UTC RSOE

Tropical Depression BILL Public Advisory from NHC

000
WTNT32 KWNH 191436
TCPAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.3N 91.4W
ABOUT 117 MILES…188 KM…NE OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…25 MPH…40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS SECTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE…FLOOD WARNINGS
EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS…NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA…LOUISIANA…AND INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS…MISSOURI…AND
ILLINOIS. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST…FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS…INDIANA…AND OHIO. FLASH FLOOD AND
FLOOD WATCHES ARE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND OHIO VALLEY.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH…AND LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AS IT TRACKS
WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION…MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH TWO SEPARATE
AXES OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. TO THE NORTH OF BILL…MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT. NEAR THE CENTER OF BILL…LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WAS
BEING REPORTED. REPORTED WIND GUSTS NEAR THE CENTER OF BILL WERE
MEASURED AT 26 MPH OR LESS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH…40 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS
——-
RAINFALL…BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS OF ARKANSAS…INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI. 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WHILE 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE MORE LIKELY
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THESE
RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING…PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL TOTALS
—————
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM CDT

…ARKANSAS…
ROGERS 2.1 SE 4.42
DELIGHT 2.2 WNW 3.74
SPRINGDALE 6.4 WSW 3.31
SILOAM SPRINGS/SMITH FIELD 3.24
FAYETTEVILLE/SPRINGDALE 3.12
HARRISON/BOONE CO. ARPT 2.94
BENTONVILLE 2.82
TEXARKANA RGNL ARPT 2.67
EUREKA SPRINGS 4.0 WNW 2.62
SPRINGFIELD/CAPITAL ARPT 2.49
MOUNTAIN HOME/BAXTER CO. ARPT 1.93
LONOKE 1.2 SSW 1.74
EVERTON 2.1 N 1.67
ST. JOE 2.7 WNW 1.64
ATKINS 1.0 NE 1.51

…ILLINOIS…
SULLIVAN 3 S 4.89
ALLENVILLE 1 S 4.50
ELBURN 4.45
SOUTH CAROL STREAM 4.11
BATAVIA 3.87
ROCHELLE 3.43
MANHATTAN 5 SSE 3.26
OAK PARK 1 SE 3.07
MATTOON 3.03
DIXON 2 SW 2.64
NEWTON 2.58
TUSCOLA 2.29
NORTH AURORA 2 E 2.23
STE. MARIE 2.11
GENEVA 2.10

…INDIANA…
MOROCCO 3.70
NEW ROSS 2 E 2.87
ANDERSON 5 NW 2.30
INDIANAPOLIS INTL ARPT 1.92
EVANSVILLE RGNL ARPT 1.81
CHESTERTON 1.70

…KANSAS…
COFFEYVILLE MUNI ARPT 3.64
COLLYER 2.1 SE 1.45

…LOUISIANA…
SHREVEPORT RGNL ARPT 4.79
BOSSIER CITY 6.7 NNW 3.84
SHREVEPORT 5.3 SSE 2.42
PLAIN DEALING 3.0 ESE 2.13
RUSTON 1.6 NW 1.85

…MISSOURI…
SPRINGFIELD 7 S 5.50
MARSHFIELD 3.6 S 5.48
NIXA 2.7 SSW 4.72
NIANGUA 4.37
SOUTH SPRINGFIELD 3.10
COLUMBIA RGNL ARPT 2.94
LITTON AGRI-SCI CNTR 2.86
JOPLIN RGNL ARPT 2.60
WHITESIDE 2 E 2.50
FORNEY AAF/FORT LEONARDWOOD 2.47
MIDDLETOWN 4 SW 2.34
JEFFERSON CITY ARPT 2.27
KAISER/LAKE OZARK 2.08

…OKLAHOMA…
HEALDTON 3 E 12.53
NEWPORT 11.52
BURNEYVILLE 10.09
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW 8.63
RINGLING 8.27
PAULS VALLEY MUNI APRT 7.35
SULPHUR 7.09
MACOMB 5.2 ESE 5.82
MARIETTA 2.8 SW 5.57
ADA 0.3 NNW 5.45
WEWOKA 7.4 NNW 5.30
NORMAN 3.4 SE 3.61
OKLAHOMA CITY 11.5 S 2.64
MUSKOGEE/DAVIS FIELD AIRPORT 2.55
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT 1.51

…TEXAS…
MONTAGUE 12.50
GANADO 1.5 W 11.77
KIRBYVILLE 1.5 SE 9.51
SEALY 0.3 WNW 9.17
ALICE INTL ARPT 9.03
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE 8.57
VICTORIA 9 ESE 7.73
ROCKPORT 1.3 WSW 7.51
MANOR 4.7 WSW 7.30
WF SAN JACINTO 7.06
LUFKIN/ANGELINA CO ARPT 6.98
NAVASOTA 8 SE 6.73
FLOUR BLUFF 7 SW 6.59
ARANSAS PASS 1 SSE 6.46
SAN FELIPE 1.0 WNW 6.15
CORPUS CHRISTI 6.14
AUSTIN 4.2 ESE 5.80
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 2.91
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 2.51
FORT WORTH NAS 2.34
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER FANNING

FORECAST POSITIONS
——————
INITIAL 19/1500Z 36.3N 91.4W
12HR VT 20/0000Z 36.9N 89.8W…TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 20/1200Z 37.9N 87.0W…TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 82.4W…POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 21/1200Z 39.2N 77.8W…POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
$$

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

MASCARENES ISLANDS/MADAGASCAR: Tropical Cyclone HALIBA (15S, 11) 09/1200Z nr 21.8S 55.2E, moving ESE 8 Kts – Updated 090315 1640z (GMT/UTC)

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM (12) (RSMC La Reunion)

 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (HALIBA) (JTWC)

MASCARENES ISLANDS SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM

 – (RSMC La Reunion)

si201516_5day 

si201516_sat_anim

ZCZC 549

ZCZC 549
WTIO30 FMEE 091222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA)
2.A POSITION 2015/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/10 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/03/12 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/13 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/03/14 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0-.
HALIBA HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z AND PROBABLY REACHED ITS INTENSITY PEAK (MAX W
INDS AT ABOUT 45KT), TEMPORARILY SHOWING A RAGGED EYE AT 08Z .
AFTER THAT, COULD PATTERN HAD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A SEVERE IMPACT OF THE
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN A WEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND EXPERIENCING BY THAT TIME SOME DEEP STRUCTURE CHANGES WITH A LARGER AND MORE ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME ITS SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH AN ONGOING EXTRATROP PROCESS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

La Reunion

B_q3FKVU0AE3dbt.jpg large

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1615.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/16S_090530sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 21.3S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 53.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 22.2S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.1S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.0S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 26.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 29.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET
SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HALIBA IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TC 16S TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
INCREASING VWS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 091221
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: 19/1000 (PhT) LOW (LPA) formerly “#Mekkhala/ #Amang” 16.8˚N, 122.7˚E – PAGASA – Updated 190115 0930z (GMT/UTC)

LOW PRESSURE AREA formerly 01W Mekkhala/ Amang

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Mekkhala_sat_anim

Japan Meteorological agency

1501-00 19th

15011915 19th

TD
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 18 January 2015

<Analyses at 18/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N16°00′(16.0°)
E122°00′(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa

PAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

FOR: LOW PRESSURE AREA (FORMERLY “AMANG”)
ISSUED AT: 10:30 AM, 19 JANUARY 2015

At 10:00 am today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) formerly “AMANG” was estimated based on all available data at 85 km Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora (16.8˚N, 122.7˚E). This weather system is expected to bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos.

Meanwhile, fisher folk and other small seacrafts are advised not venture out into the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon and the Eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon.

The next update will be incorporated in the 24-hour public weather forecast to be issued at 5:00 pm today while the next weather advisory will be issued at 11:00 am tomorrow.

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.

10410341_742438229199422_5565964766380787603_n

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0115 19th

 https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/01W_181732sair.jpg
WTPN31 PGTW 182100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 022A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181800Z — NEAR 15.7N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 123.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 16.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 17.9N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 123.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BAGUIO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS IT WAS STRIPPED OF DEEP CONVECTION BY STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AIDED BY A COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE 181500Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. TD
MEKKHALA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO THE HIGH VWS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: RELOCATED INITIAL
AND FORECAST POSITIONS AFTER ANALYSIS OF UPDATED AND MORE ACCURATE
SATELLITE DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression MEKKHALA (01W) currently located near 15.1 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Find warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Eastern Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Disturbance 93E: 020830Z nr 15.6N 107.5W, moving NE at 9 knots. High chance of becoming Tropical Cyclone within next 24 hours (JTWC) – Published 020914 1505z (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 93E

THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) Invest 93E (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Surface Temp (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep9314.gif

 

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/93E_020830sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN21 PHNC 020830

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0N 106.6W TO 19.9N 110.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6N 107.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 272 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 020451Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
CENTER. A 020404Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH
STRONGER WINDS (30 KNOTS) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND WEAKER
05 TO 10 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030830Z.//
NNNN

Other

Eastern Pacific’s 93E a potential threat to Bajawunderground.com
“In the Eastern Pacific, tropical disturbance Invest 93E is gathering strength a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. In their Monday morning runs, both the GFS and European models predicted that 93E would develop into a tropical storm late this week, and pass very close to the tip of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula on Friday. Satellite loops show that 93E is poorly organized today, and I expect that the earliest the disturbance would become a tropical depression is Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93E 2-day and 5-day odd of development of 20% and 70%, respectively.”

Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2014

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 021130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SEP 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 04.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 45N167E 1004 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 180 NM E QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO 48N
BETWEEN 173E AND 160E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N172E 1005 MB. FROM 40N TO 48N BETWEEN
178E AND 165E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N173E 1006 MB. WITHIN 300 NM N AND NE
SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 33N TO 44N BETWEEN 121W AND 129W N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 44N BETWEEN
123W AND 129W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 39N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N WINDS
30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 46N BETWEEN
123W AND 131W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 49N TO 55N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W W TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 48N TO 50N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W N TO NW
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 47N TO 54N E OF
134W N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 46N TO 51N E OF 130W N TO NW WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.POST-TROPICAL MARIE 31N140W 1015 MB DRIFTING SW. WITHIN 240 NM
N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL MARIE 30N141W 1014 MB. WITHIN
240 NM N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL MARIE S OF FORECAST AREA. FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 140W AND 145W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.LOW 48N162W 1017 MB MOVING N 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM N AND NE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N162W 1015 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N160W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS…AND FROM 40N TO 52N BETWEEN 148W AND 158W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 60N148W 1011 MB MOVING E 10 KT. N OF 55N BETWEEN 145W AND
155W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW TO FORM 61N152W. N
OF 55N BETWEEN 144W AND 154W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 57N TO 60N BETWEEN 173W AND 157W W TO
SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N163E 1000 MB. FROM 32N TO 42N BETWEEN
168E AND 160E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 42N TO 48N
BETWEEN 150W AND 163W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 45N168E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 52N BETWEEN 148W AND
166W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 55N BETWEEN 143W AND
161W.

.HIGH 52N152W 1026 MB MOVING SE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N142W 1028 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N139W 1028 MB.

.HIGH 44N146W 1025 MB DRIFTING N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 53N173W 1026 MB MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N176W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 55N178W 1020 MB.

.HIGH 33N163E 1018 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 31N168E 1017 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N175E 1015 MB.

.FORECASTER COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE SEP 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED SEP 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU SEP 04.

.WARNINGS.
…GALE WARNING…

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N107W 1006 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER SE
QUADRANT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT. FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT. FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
18N108W 1004 MB WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 17N105W TO 14N107W SW WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
17N104W TO 12N110W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W…AND FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
19N110W 1002 MB. WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO
21N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF 02S W OF 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N134W TO 04N128W TO 06N117W
TO 01S109W TO 03.4S98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N132W TO 08N121W TO 00N104W
TO 03.4S91W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0815 UTC TUE SEP 02…

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N107W 1006 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N109W TO 10N122W
AND FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 08N93W THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES
NEAR 16N107W 1006 MB TO 18N115W TO 12N126W. ITCZ FROM 12N126W TO
11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 45 TO 60 NM ALONG COAST OF
COLOMBIA N OF 03N…AND N OF 06N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 78W AND
84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
ENTIRE COAST OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 12N
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W…FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W.

.FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SEP 02 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 03 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 04 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW…POST-TROPICAL MARIE…JUST N OF FORECAST AREA 31N140W
1015 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW…POST-TROPICAL MARIE…30N141W 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW…POST-TROPICAL MARIE…29N143W 1013 MB.

.FRONT FROM 30N180E TO 29N175E TO 29S169E. FRONT MOVING SE
SLOWLY E OF 175E…AND NEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N177W TO 26N171E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH FROM 30N178E TO
26N169E.

.TROUGH FROM 13N179W TO 03N177E MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 13N174W TO 05N170W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MOVED W OF FORECAST AREA.

.RIDGE FROM 30N152W TO 29N154W TO 27N165W TO 24N176W MOVING E
SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 148W
AND 160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 151W
AND 162W.

.OTHERWISE…SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 11N140W TO 11N144W TO 09N148W TO 08N158W TO 06N171W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ W OF
152W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ E
OF 152W.

$$
.FORECASTER HOUSTON. HONOLULU HI.=

METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/gulfmexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific: Tropical Depression Karina 11E: 252100Z near 17.2N 127.6W, moving E at about 5.2 knots(NHC) – Updated 250814 2102z (UTC)

Tropical Depression KARINA 11E

…KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION……NHC

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 252036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

…KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.2N 127.6W
ABOUT 1215 MI…1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. KARINA
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1114.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 251600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 051
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 17.2N 128.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 128.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 16.8N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 16.4N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 15.7N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 127.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 985 NM
WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Other

Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1433

WTPZ21 KNHC 252035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 127.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 251730
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 51N170E 1008 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN
179W AND 165E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N174W 1008 MB. FROM 48N TO 53N BETWEEN
165W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N167W 1007 MB. FROM 49N TO 54N BETWEEN
151W AND 174W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW W OF AREA 44N155E 1003 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FROM 36N TO 43N
BETWEEN 160E AND 165E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 46N157E 996 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 720 NM SE AND 540 NE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N158E 995 MB. FROM 38N TO 49N BETWEEN
172E AND 164E…AND OVER FORECAST WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM
48N160E TO 52N170E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N162E 992 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 300 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO 50N W OF 178E…AND N OF 50N W OF 171E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 59N156W 1000 MB MOVING E 15 KT. FROM 49N TO 60N BETWEEN
145W AND 172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N144W 1007 MB. FROM 52N TO 58N BETWEEN
140W AND 156W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N142W 1014 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 46N154W 1020 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. FROM 41N TO 46N BETWEEN
152W AND 158W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N142W 1017 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N130W 1017 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 38N TO 50N BETWEEN 124W AND 136W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 39N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 130W AND 145W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 135W AND 142W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 51N
BETWEEN 134W AND 139W…AND FROM 41N TO 52N BETWEEN 160E AND
178W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 120 NM OF 48N138W…FROM 49N
TO 54N BETWEEN 169W AND 175E…AND FROM 39N TO 49N W OF 172E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 172W AND
168E…AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 48N162E.

.HIGH 42N144W 1028 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N143W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N141W 1023 MB.

.HIGH 44N173W 1029 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N164W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N162W 1029 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 37N171W 1026 MB.

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED AUG 27.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 17.9N 114.8W 932 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 25
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…240 NM NE QUADRANT AND 270 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT…390 NM SE
QUADRANT…300 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 44 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W 120W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER N OF 07N BETWEEN 105W AND
120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 20.1N 118.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE…150 NM SW QUADRANT AND 160 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
480 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 37 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 22.2N 123.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…170 NM SE QUADRANT…110 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 540 NM FROM CENTER WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIE NEAR 24.5N 128.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL MARIE NEAR 28.0N 132.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 30.5N
133.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 17.1N 128.0W 1004 MB AT 1500
UTC AUG 25 MOVING ELSE OR 110 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W
AND 132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 16.4N
126.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 15.7N
125.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 25N130W 1004 MB…REMNANT OF LOWELL. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
22N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 23N135W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N
W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N138W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 17N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC MON AUG 25…

.HURRICANE MARIE…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE
AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA….SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 09N100W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS
PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 90W AND
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 25 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 26 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 14N142W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 10N175W 1008 MB MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 11N179W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N142W TO 11N147W TO 11N156W AND ALSO FROM
09N161W TO 09N169W TO 10N175W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 147W AND W OF
169W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH.

.ITCZ FROM 08N179W TO 06N175E TO 08N166E TO 06N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM OF ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippine Sea/ Philippines/ Taiwan: Tropical Depression Inday 291200Z near 18.3N 129.5E, moving W at 6 knots (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 290714 1625z (UTC)

Tropical Depression WP96 “INDAY”

Tropical Depression “Inday” has maintained its strength as it moves in a west northwest direction – PAGASA

Japan Meteorological agency

(RSMC Tokyo is the lead agency in this area)

TD
Issued at 13:15 UTC, 29 July 2014

<Analyses at 29/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N18°20′(18.3°)
E129°30′(129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°05′(20.1°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

Philippines

PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “INDAY” 
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Tuesday, 29 July 2014

Tropical Depression “Inday” has maintained its strength as it moves in a west northwest direction.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.)
680 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 19.0°N, 128.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Wednesday evening:
260 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Thursday evening:
390 km North of Basco, Batanes

Friday evening:
700 km North of Basco, Batanes.

No Public Storm Warning Signal

 

Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5 – 15 mm per hour (moderate – heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

 

Tropical Depression “INDAY” will not affect any part of the country. However, it will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring occasional rains over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas and the provinces of Zambales and Bataan.

 

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.

 11:00 p.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500 

WTJP32 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 992 HPA
AT 13.6N 146.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 14.5N 143.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 291200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 18.3N 129.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 20.1N 126.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 144E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N 160E 30N 148E 39N 148E 40N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 992 HPA AT 48N 165E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 37N 146E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 29N 167E EAST 15 KT.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 165E TO 48N 166E 47N 169E.
WARM FRONT FROM 47N 169E TO 42N 175E 36N 177E.
COLD FRONT FROM 47N 169E TO 41N 167E 38N 160E 35N 157E 33N 153E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 153E TO 32N 149E 31N 144E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 992 HPA AT 13.0N 147.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Eastern Pacific: Tropical Depression Eight-E (08E) 261500Z near 14.4N 107.3W, moving NW at 13 knots (NHC) – Updated 260714 1738z (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-E (08E)

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…
…NO THREAT TO LAND…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (NHC)

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 261431
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…
…NO THREAT TO LAND…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.4N 107.3W
ABOUT 610 MI…985 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/H. A
SLIGHTLY FASTER WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0849
WTPZ22 KNHC 261431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
1500 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.0W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.0W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 136.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.2N 138.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.3N 139.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.4N 141.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.5N 146.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 14.0N 152.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 137.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

GENEVIEVE WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 26/1500
UTC. AT THIS TIME…IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 137.0W MOVING WEST
OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED. SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 107.3W AT
26/1500 UTC MOVING NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT. A SLIGHTLY
FASTER WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE N WITHIN
240 NM OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS…AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF A 1007 MB
LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 14.5N127W IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AND ABOUT 60
NM TO THE NW OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY…THE NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IS EXPECTED TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 117W/118W FROM 10N TO 20N MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH…MAINLY FROM 08N
TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 14N107W TO 10N118W TO 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14.5N127W TO 12N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N E OF 81W AND FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO
10N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W.

…DISCUSSION…

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 34N131W TO 30N129W TO 16N138W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 125W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH MAINLY W OF 120W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
27N118W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF THE RIDGE NEAR
22N115W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 17N114W. AN INVERTED
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 08N113W. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 17N102W. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. N TO NE FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION E OF 100W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO…STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20-25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
20 KT OR LESS BY SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…ANOTHER PULSE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WAS
NOTED THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AND GENEVIEVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WWD IN TANDEM WITH
GENEVIEVE.

$$
GR

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0530
FZPN02 KWBC 261130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 26.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 27.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 28.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 36N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 44N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W N TO
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 46N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W N WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 36N TO 48N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W N WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 42N178E 1002 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 300 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
360 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N171E 1001 MB. WITHIN 480 NM N AND NE
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 57N141W 1007 MB MOVING NW 05 KT. WITHIN 540 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N144W 1010 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N146W 1016 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 43N BETWEEN 168E AND 161E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS N OF FORECAST AREA.

.LOW 41N164E 1007 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N173E 998 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 43N173E TO 31N173E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N176E 1003 MB. WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 55N170E TO 47N178E TO 40N180W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 38N179E 1004 MB. WITHIN 360 NM E AND
SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 53N TO 63N
BETWEEN 170W AND 177E AND FROM 40N TO 54N BETWEEN 175W AND 160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 54N BETWEEN 172W AND
170E…FROM 43N TO 56N BETWEEN 170E AND 160E…AND N OF 55N
BETWEEN 166W AND 180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 54N BETWEEN 170W AND
160E AND N OF 60N BETWEEN 165W AND 173W.

.HIGH 38N143W 1026 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 38N137W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 38N136W 1025 MB.

.HIGH 52N178W 1027 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 55N177W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N172W 1027 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 45N164W 1026 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 52N129W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER NOLT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 26.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 27.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 28.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE NEAR 12.2N 136.7W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC
JUL 26 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 N SEMICIRCLE…120 NM SE QUADRANT…AND 60
NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 132W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE NEAR 12.5N 139.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM
N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 16N TO 18N W OF 135W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 13.0N
143.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 11N TO 17N W OF 135W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 13.5N
146.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 14.0N
149.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE NEAR
14.0N 152.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 13.4N 106.3W 1007 MB AT 0900
UTC JUL 26 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W
SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EIGHT E NEAR 16.4N 110.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER
WITH MAX SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
150 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EIGHT E NEAR 19.2N 115.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND
40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EIGHT E NEAR 21.2N 119.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EIGHT E NEAR 22.0N
123.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EIGHT E NEAR 22.0N
125.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N126W 1005 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND
30 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N130W 1006 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
15N132W 1004 MB. WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO…NE
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W N WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF 03N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 04N BETWEEN 84W AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48W HOUR FORECAST S OF 04N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC SAT JUL 26…

T.S. GENEVIEVE…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 135W
AND 137W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

LOW PRES NEAR 14N125W…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
135W AND 137W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH 9N78W TO 05N94W…TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E…TO 10N117W…TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
14N126W…TO 13N131W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
89W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W…FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W…FROM
04N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W…FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 102W
AND 107W…FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W…AND FROM 07N
TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 125W.

.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 26 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 27 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 28 2014.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE JUST EAST OF FORECAST
AREA NEAR 12.5N 139.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS
AND 40 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES AND
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 13.0N
143.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WINDS 20 TO
30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN 180 NM N AND WITHIN 120 NM S
SEMICIRCLES.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 13.5N
146.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 14.0N
149.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE NEAR 14.0N 152.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

SEE WTPZ22 KNHC BULLETIN ISSUED BY NHC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 09N152W 1007 MB MOVING W 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 11N148W
TO 10N143W TO 11N140W MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
FROM 05N TO 14N E OF 157W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N156W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WEAKENING NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N177E TO 27N172E TO
25N168E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT FROM 30N172E TO 26N167E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N176E TO 27N172E TO 25N167E. SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N.

.TROUGH FROM 09N160E TO 09N175E MOVING S SLOWLY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 15N W OF 176E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 08N160E TO 06N171E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.RIDGE FROM 28N160E TO 28N163E TO 29N169E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 146W AND
155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 148W AND 158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 153W AND 162W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 12N TO 17N E OF 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 149W
AND 158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 152W
AND 161W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 07N156W TO 05N174W TO 09N179W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG TSTMS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 161W AND 166W…AND FROM
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 169W AND 174W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
ELSEWHERE S OF 14N BETWEEN 175W AND 176E…AND FROM 02N TO 10N
BETWEEN 157W AND 175W.

$$

.HONOLULU HI=

 

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Eastern Pacific: Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE 261500Z near 12.2N 137.0W, moving W at 4 knots (NHC) – Updated 260714 1638z (UTC)

Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE 07E

(One of 4 weather systems currently in the Eastern Pacific)

…GENEVIEVE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) Eastern Pacific Temperature (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 261431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

…GENEVIEVE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…12.2N 137.0W
ABOUT 1330 MI…2135 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 137.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH…7
KM/H…BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND
MAINTAIN A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 261600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 006
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
261200Z — NEAR 12.2N 136.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 136.8W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 12.2N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 12.3N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 12.4N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 12.8N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 13.5N 146.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 14.0N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 14.0N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 137.2W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1146
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND
271600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0849

WTPZ22 KNHC 261431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
1500 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.0W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.0W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 136.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.2N 138.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.3N 139.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.4N 141.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.5N 146.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 14.0N 152.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 137.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

GENEVIEVE WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 26/1500
UTC. AT THIS TIME…IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 137.0W MOVING WEST
OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED. SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 107.3W AT
26/1500 UTC MOVING NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT. A SLIGHTLY
FASTER WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE N WITHIN
240 NM OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS…AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF A 1007 MB
LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 14.5N127W IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AND ABOUT 60
NM TO THE NW OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY…THE NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IS EXPECTED TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 117W/118W FROM 10N TO 20N MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH…MAINLY FROM 08N
TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 14N107W TO 10N118W TO 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14.5N127W TO 12N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N E OF 81W AND FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO
10N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W.

…DISCUSSION…

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 34N131W TO 30N129W TO 16N138W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 125W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH MAINLY W OF 120W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
27N118W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF THE RIDGE NEAR
22N115W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 17N114W. AN INVERTED
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 08N113W. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 17N102W. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. N TO NE FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION E OF 100W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO…STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20-25 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
20 KT OR LESS BY SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…ANOTHER PULSE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WAS
NOTED THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AND GENEVIEVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WWD IN TANDEM WITH
GENEVIEVE.

$$
GR

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0530

FZPN02 KWBC 261130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 26.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 27.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 28.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 36N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 44N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W N TO
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 46N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W N WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 36N TO 48N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W N WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 42N178E 1002 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 300 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
360 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N171E 1001 MB. WITHIN 480 NM N AND NE
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 57N141W 1007 MB MOVING NW 05 KT. WITHIN 540 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N144W 1010 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N146W 1016 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 43N BETWEEN 168E AND 161E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS N OF FORECAST AREA.

.LOW 41N164E 1007 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N173E 998 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 43N173E TO 31N173E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N176E 1003 MB. WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 55N170E TO 47N178E TO 40N180W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 38N179E 1004 MB. WITHIN 360 NM E AND
SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 53N TO 63N
BETWEEN 170W AND 177E AND FROM 40N TO 54N BETWEEN 175W AND 160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 54N BETWEEN 172W AND
170E…FROM 43N TO 56N BETWEEN 170E AND 160E…AND N OF 55N
BETWEEN 166W AND 180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 54N BETWEEN 170W AND
160E AND N OF 60N BETWEEN 165W AND 173W.

.HIGH 38N143W 1026 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 38N137W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 38N136W 1025 MB.

.HIGH 52N178W 1027 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 55N177W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N172W 1027 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 45N164W 1026 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 52N129W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER NOLT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 26.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 27.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 28.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE NEAR 12.2N 136.7W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC
JUL 26 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 N SEMICIRCLE…120 NM SE QUADRANT…AND 60
NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 132W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE NEAR 12.5N 139.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM
N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 16N TO 18N W OF 135W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 13.0N
143.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 11N TO 17N W OF 135W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 13.5N
146.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 14.0N
149.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE NEAR
14.0N 152.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 13.4N 106.3W 1007 MB AT 0900
UTC JUL 26 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W
SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EIGHT E NEAR 16.4N 110.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER
WITH MAX SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
150 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EIGHT E NEAR 19.2N 115.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND
40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EIGHT E NEAR 21.2N 119.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EIGHT E NEAR 22.0N
123.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EIGHT E NEAR 22.0N
125.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N126W 1005 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND
30 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N130W 1006 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
15N132W 1004 MB. WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO…NE
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W N WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF 03N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 04N BETWEEN 84W AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48W HOUR FORECAST S OF 04N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC SAT JUL 26…

T.S. GENEVIEVE…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 135W
AND 137W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

LOW PRES NEAR 14N125W…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
135W AND 137W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH 9N78W TO 05N94W…TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E…TO 10N117W…TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
14N126W…TO 13N131W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
89W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W…FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W…FROM
04N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W…FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 102W
AND 107W…FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W…AND FROM 07N
TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 125W.

.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 26 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 27 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 28 2014.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE JUST EAST OF FORECAST
AREA NEAR 12.5N 139.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS
AND 40 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES AND
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 13.0N
143.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WINDS 20 TO
30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN 180 NM N AND WITHIN 120 NM S
SEMICIRCLES.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 13.5N
146.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE NEAR 14.0N
149.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE NEAR 14.0N 152.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

SEE WTPZ22 KNHC BULLETIN ISSUED BY NHC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 09N152W 1007 MB MOVING W 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 11N148W
TO 10N143W TO 11N140W MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
FROM 05N TO 14N E OF 157W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N156W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WEAKENING NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N177E TO 27N172E TO
25N168E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT FROM 30N172E TO 26N167E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N176E TO 27N172E TO 25N167E. SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N.

.TROUGH FROM 09N160E TO 09N175E MOVING S SLOWLY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 15N W OF 176E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 08N160E TO 06N171E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.RIDGE FROM 28N160E TO 28N163E TO 29N169E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 146W AND
155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 148W AND 158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 153W AND 162W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 12N TO 17N E OF 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 149W
AND 158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 152W
AND 161W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 07N156W TO 05N174W TO 09N179W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG TSTMS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 161W AND 166W…AND FROM
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 169W AND 174W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
ELSEWHERE S OF 14N BETWEEN 175W AND 176E…AND FROM 02N TO 10N
BETWEEN 157W AND 175W.

$$

.HONOLULU HI=

 

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Caribbean/Lesser Antilles: Tropical Depression Two: 221500Z near 12.6N 48.0W, moving W at 15 knots (NHC FL) – Published 220714 1840z (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two

…DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD..

….INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM..NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center – NHC

000
WTNT32 KNHC 221433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

…DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.6N 48.0W
ABOUT 910 MI…1465 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1012 MB…29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/H…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW…BUT
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB…29.89 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

About The Lesser Antilles

MARITIME

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431

WTNT22 KNHC 221431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 47.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.9N 50.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.3N 53.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.9N 56.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.8N 60.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

AT 1500 UTC…TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
48.0W OR ABOUT 750 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED
THROUGH WED…BUT SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST WED NIGHT AND THU
DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
INTO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-49W. SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-75W WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS
DURING LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED…WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW GALE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE
LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N38W TO 12N39W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 14N HINDERING
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TOGETHER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N93W TO THE
E PACIFIC AT 8N95W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE HAVE DIMINISHED PAST 3-6 HOURS.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
5N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EAST OF T.D. TWO
EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 13N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO
FROM 11N49W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 75 NM
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN E OF 29W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…

A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N89W WITH A
1016 MB LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTH
OF THE LOW FROM 27N TO 28.5N BETWEEN 86W-93W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF…AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA…THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA…AND EXTREME SE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

15-25 KT TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS FROM
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
JAMAICA IS ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…AND HISPANIOLA. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

…HISPANIOLA…

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS THROUGH WED. EXPECT ACTIVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING MAXIMUM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF CUBA W
OF 77W DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 82W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 30-31N ANCHORED BY 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ALL ACROSS THE REGION E OF 77W WITH NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
T.D. TWO IN THE DEEP TROPICS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 27N65W IS SUPPORTING STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N50W IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1559

FZNT01 KWBC 221559
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 23
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 24

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 42N52W 1008 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW EXCEPT
WITHIN 300 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N40W 1002 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM
E AND 300 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 34N TO 46N BETWEEN 35W AND A LINE FROM 34N52W TO
46N45W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 45N33W 1000 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W
AND 240 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 33N39W TO 49N37W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N61W 987 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM
S…360 NM N AND 420 NM E QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW E OF AREA 55N29W 1000 MB MOVING N 10 KT. FROM 47N TO 65N
BETWEEN 35W AND 42W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.N OF 60N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 64N60W TO
56N50W AREA OF SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 58N61W DESCRIBED IN
WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N73W 1007 MB. BETWEEN 180 NM AND 480 NM
S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 53N50W TO 60N60W TO 67N55W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG W OF A LINE FROM 50N49W TO 55N48W TO
60N57W TO 67N59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG W OF A LINE FROM 45N47W TO 55N42W TO
64N62W.

.HIGH 45N58W 1019 MB MOVING S 15 KT WILL TURN E AFTER 24 HOURS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N59W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N49W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 31N38W 1026 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH 39N73W 1023 MB MOVING SE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUL 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUL 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 24.

.WARNINGS.

…CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING…
.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W NE TO E WINDS 30
TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
70W AND 82W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 83W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N
BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E
SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11.5N TO
17N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER WATERS 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
17N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO
11 FT. REMAINDER WATERS 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09.5N TO 16N
BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E
SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 68W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11.5N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NEAR 12.6N 48.0W 1012 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUL 22 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT NEAR CENTER. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NEAR 13.3N 53.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NEAR 14.8N 60.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.ATLC 12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN 12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N W OF 86W…INCLUDING THE
GULF OF HONDURAS…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS 07W 171500Z nr 29.6N 131.9E, moving E at 34 knots (JTWC) – Updated 170614 1715z

Tropical Depression Hagibis

16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014

Tropical Storm HAGIBIS 1407 – JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) – JTWC

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) Tropical Depression Hagibis 16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014 (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1407

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories for Japan

CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SOURCE (JMA) WHERE THE WARNING MAP IS INTERACTIVE

 

TS 1407 (HAGIBIS)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 June 2014

<Analyses at 15/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°25′(23.4°)
E116°30′(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°50′(25.8°)
E117°00′(117.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0714.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_171132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 171500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 29.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 080 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 130.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 30.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 27 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 31.9N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 131.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 34 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2014 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

NO WARNING AS AT 170614 1646 UTC

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Hagibis re-intensifies near Japan, What to Expect – WestPacWx

Tropical Storm Hagibis is acting like that annoying little person you know that will just not go away. This storm formed quickly in the south china sea, came on shore Sunday, weakened over China and then made a return from the grave Tuesday morning in the East China Sea as a Tropical Storm yet again with winds sustained at 65kph and pressure at 996hpa.

In reality though this storm really is sub-tropical at this point. The bulk of the convection remains along the western side of the storm with dry air wrapping in from the north on the east. Furthermore it has an abundance of upper level support shearing apart the low level circulation.  Still though it will pack a 1-2 punch with the rain season front in western Japan.

VIS SAT

Specifically southern Kyushu heavy rainfall up to 200mm is expected through Wednesday morning along with high winds and large waves near the coastline.

The storm is racing north of Okinawa today but a few thunderstorms are still possible on what would be a cold front developing south of the storm. A few of these could become strong. The biggest problem in Okinawa though will be the gusty winds and high waves from the North.

Hagibis will continue to track east south of Tokyo but still will bring high waves up and down the pacific coast of Japan as a strong extra-tropical storm.

Farther North in Japan what we are seeing is a cut off low proving to be the ignition for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday in Central and Northern Japan. Cold upper level air combined with day time heating could trigger more severe weather.

I say more because on Monday a storm brought heavy rainfall and hail to Tochigi prefecture. In Utsunomiya flooding was reported along with landslides causing 30 families to be evacuated and nine homes were inundated by flood waters.

In Eastern China is still expected mostly due to the rainy season front. Flooding is still possible in areas south of the Yangzi river basin.

The monsoon continues to settle farther south but later this week we could see another surge from the south west. Check the latest update for more information on this..

https://i1.wp.com/www.southchinasea.org/files/2011/08/Southeast-Asia-Reference-Map-CIA-World-Factbook.jpg

(Image credit: middlebury.edu)

MARITIME

Marine Warnings – Japan

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1407 HAGIBIS (1407) 996 HPA
AT 29.1N 130.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 31.0N 136.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.1N 141.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

HIGH SEAS FORECAST JAPAN June 17 2014 – 14:24:49 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST HONG KONG CHINA June 17 2014 – 14:20:23 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST CHINA June 17 2014 – 13:39:55 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Eastern Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Depression CHRISTINA 03E 151600Z nr 20.2N 113.3W, moving NW at 5 knots (JTWC) – Updated 150614 1725z

Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINA 03E

09/6/2014 to 15/6/2014

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINA (Click image for source)

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

 

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

WTPZ33 KNHC 151432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

…CRISTINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.1N 113.3W
ABOUT 290 MI…470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 113.3
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6
MPH…9 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND
CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0314.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 20.0N 113.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 113.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.6N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 21.3N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 22.0N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.0N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 113.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM
NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.
//
NNNN

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

WTPZ23 KNHC 151431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

FZPN03 KNHC 151533
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 3.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA NEAR 20.1N 113.3W 1004 MB AT 1500
UTC JUN 15 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 30 NM SW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CRISTINA NEAR 21.3N
115.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 60 NM
N AND 15 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CRISTINA NEAR 23.0N
116.6W. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.S OF 10N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15…

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N78W TO 06N82W TO 09N90W TO 07N100W TO
09N108W. ITCZ FROM 07N115W TO 08N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
05N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM
S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 125W.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

METAREA XII

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Micronesia/ Marianas/ Iwo Jima: Tropical Depression TAPAH (06W) 020600Z nr 25N 145E, moving NE slowly (JMA) – Updated 020514 1318z

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1405 (TAPAH)(JMA RSMC Tokyo )

TYPHOON TAPAH (06W)(JTWC)

TYPHOON TAPAH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN – NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satelitte (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

 

WWJP25 RJTD 020600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 42N 149E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 44N 128E MANCHURIA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 43N 131E 43N 134E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 41N 127E 40N 126E 37N 125E 34N 122E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
51N 157E 55N 164E 52N 172E 40N 173E 40N 163E 34N 151E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 54N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 145E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 28N 127E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 170E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

GUAM

Tropical Depression TAPAH (06W) -
Forecast Track and Uncertainty Graphic,
Full-Scale Image

NO active tropical cyclones at this time
Fri, 02 May 2014 22:57:04 ChST

Tropical Cyclones
Guam Alerts
Micronesian Alerts

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

None

Other Reports

Near real-time animated map of global wind and weather:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-214.70,14.53,1071

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-213.73,11.50,567

MARITIME

WWJP25 RJTD 020600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 42N 149E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 44N 128E MANCHURIA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 43N 131E 43N 134E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 128E TO 41N 127E 40N 126E 37N 125E 34N 122E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
51N 157E 55N 164E 52N 172E 40N 173E 40N 163E 34N 151E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 54N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 145E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 28N 127E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 170E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
METAREA XI

Specialist weather for mariners: passageweather.com

Marianas (Image: wikipedia.org)

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Micronesia/ Yap/ Caroline Islands/ Philippines: Tropical Depression 98W 200600Z nr 10N 136E, moving W slowly (JMA) – Updated 200414 1908z

Tropical Depression (98W)

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM (JTWC)

Yap & Caroline Islands be aware

Tropical Depression set to impact the Philippines on Tuesday (See video below) – Westernpacificweather

Japan Meteorological agency

 

WWJP25 RJTD 201200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
AT 45N 169E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 47N 174E 45N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 42N 179W 36N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 35N 174E 28N 164E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 167E 37N 175E
45N 176E 42N 180E 30N 180E 30N 167E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 30N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 136E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 03N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 35N 122E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 37N 147E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 112E TO 26N 123E 30N 129E 28N 135E 26N
138E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAPR2014//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
139.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD. THE MSI LOOP
ALSO SHOWS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES HIGHER WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND
LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED; A WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH SHOWS 5-15
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSING THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC.
NUMERIC MODELS HAVE SCALED DOWN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ON THIS
SYSTEM TO BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. //
NNNN

Other Reports

Tropical Depression East of the Philippines – WestPacWx

 

Taking a look at the Tropical Depression set to impact the Philippines on Tuesday – Westernpacificweather

Near real-time animated map of global wind and weather:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-231.56,10.61,2461

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-213.73,11.50,130

News Reports

Two LPAs moving toward Philippines

“One of two low-pressure areas (LPAs) moving toward the Philippine territory is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 to 36 hours.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), one of the LPAs was located 220 kilometers (km) east-northeast of Surigao City, while the other one was spotted 1,220 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, as of mid-Sunday.

The weather disturbance near Surigao City will bring cloudy skies with moderate to occasional heavy rains and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas, particularly Eastern and Northern Samar.

PAGASA advised residents in these areas of possible flash floods and landslides. It also advised fishermen and seafarers of moderate to occasional rough seas over the Eastern and Central Visayas.

Weather forecaster Gladys Saludes said the LPA is not expected to intensify into a tropical depression as it is already near land.

Meanwhile, the LPA east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, which is seen to enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) possibly Sunday evening or early Monday, has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression, Saludes said.

Should it enter PAR and intensify into a tropical depression, it will be locally called ‘Ester,’ the fifth tropical cyclone to enter the country’s vicinity this year and the second this month.

Based on the latest forecast models, Saludes noted that the weather disturbance could make landfall over Bicol Region or Samar area by Wednesday afternoon or evening.

“Rains due to the tropical cyclone may prevail over Eastern Visayas starting Tuesday, and over Bicol Region and Samar including Southern Luzon by Wednesday,” she said.

In other parts of the country, the warm and moist air coming from the Pacific Ocean called the easterlies will affect the provinces of Northern Luzon.

Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.” by Ellalyn De Vera
April 20, 2014

MARITIME

WWJP25 RJTD 201200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
AT 45N 169E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 169E TO 47N 174E 45N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 42N 179W 36N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 176E TO 35N 174E 28N 164E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 167E 37N 175E
45N 176E 42N 180E 30N 180E 30N 167E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 30N 129E EAST SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 136E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 03N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 35N 122E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 37N 147E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 112E TO 26N 123E 30N 129E 28N 135E 26N
138E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA XI

Specialist weather for mariners – passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean/ Australia: Post-Tropical Depression 15 (22S) EX-IVANOE 060600Z nr 28.1S 87.8E, moving SSE at 27 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 060414 1332z

Tropical Cyclone Ex-IVANHOE

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE) (RSMC LA REUNION)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JTWC)

ZCZC 060
WTIO30 FMEE 060635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/15/20132014
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 87.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/06 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/04/07 06 UTC: 34.7 S / 92.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/04/07 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 96.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2014/04/08 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 101.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/04/08 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 104.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/04/09 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 106.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/10 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 107.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, IVANOE HAS TAKEN A POST-TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH A PERSISTENT WARM CORE WITHI
N THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAYERS UP TO 600 HPA AND A MASSIVE COLD AIR INTRUSION WITHIN THE UPPER LEV
EL LAYERS INSIDE THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET. THE CLOUDY SUMMITS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS SLOWLY WARMING. ON THE LATEST CC SATELLITE PICTURES, THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE BEGIN TO APPEAR WEST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS DETACHING UNDER THE POWER OF THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND-
SHEAR.
THE WINDS STRUCTURE IS VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE FAST MOTION SPEED AND THE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE PRESENT I
N THE EAST.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW/MID LEVELS RIDGES PRESENT IN ITS NORTH AND EAST AND AN APPROAC
HING POLAR TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON A RAPID SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL TOMOR
ROW MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK, THE SST DECREASE VERY RAPIDLY AND BECOME VERY INSUFFICIENT.
FROM MONDAY IN THE DAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT AN EASTWARD THEN NORTH-EASTWARD TRACK BY TERMINATI
NG ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION AND BY FILLING UP. IT MAY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WEST OF AU
STRALIAN COASTS.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2214.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/22S_052330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
060000Z — NEAR 25.5S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 86.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 30.0S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 33.3S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 995 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 052347Z
SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW DVORAK
FIX DATA AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A LARGE FLARE OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD. TC 22S IS
ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING TC 22S
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE THE FIRST PHASE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE
SHOULD ENABLE TC 22P TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING
AT 061500Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

MARITIME

ZCZC 985
WTIO20 FMEE 060619
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/04/2014 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 06/04/2014 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 87.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENT
RE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EX
TENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/06 AT 18 UTC:
32.2 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/04/07 AT 06 UTC:
34.7 S / 92.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
STRONGESTS WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NNNN

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Tropical Depression “CALOY” (94W) 211200Z nr 08N 128E, moving W slowly (JMA) – Published 210314 2128z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” 

(Invest 94W)

PHILIPPINES: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SURIGAO DEL NORTE (PAGASA)

WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY”
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 21 MARCH 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SURIGAO DEL NORTE.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “CALOY” was estimated based on all available data at 160 km East of Surigao City (9.6°N, 127.0°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 45 kph near the center.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 15 kph.

Forecast Positions: Tropical Depression “CALOY” is expected to be at 50 km South Southeast of Cebu City by tomorrow evening and at 25 km South of Cuyo Island by Sunday evening. By Monday evening, it is expected to be at 200 km North Northwest of Puerto Princesa City.

PSWS#1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

Visayas:Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Cebu, Negros Provinces, Guimaras, Iloilo and Antique

Mindanao:Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte incl. Siargao, Dinagat, Northern Agusan del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental and Camiguin
Potential Impacts of the Winds

•Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
•Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
•Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
•Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
•Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is risky

•Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lifted.
•Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 – 15 mm per hour (moderate – heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
•Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Eastern Visayas due to the Northeast Monsoon.
•The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Japan Meteorological agency


Analysis Chart (JMA) (Click image for animation/source)

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 968 HPA
AT 43N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 150E TO 45N 153E 43N 156E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 39N 161E 34N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 35N 155E 28N 147E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 46N 154E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 49N 157E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 180E EAST 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 31N 120E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 177E ESE 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Depression Caloy Over the Southern Philippines

– WxPacWx

Rainfall Outlook

Rainfall Outlook

“Tropical Depression Caloy was named Friday morning by PAGASA following a night of organization and intensification from the

TD Caloy

low pressure center in the Philippine Sea.

Despite this storm being branded a name (the third PAGASA named storm already in 2014) the forecast has changed very little from what we have been discussing all week.

Expect the low to come ashore in Northern Mindanao throughout the weekend but based on IR satellite imagery a unskilled observer might think Visayas is seeing landfall.

That is because of the large moisture inflow in to the storm along Caloys northern Periphery. This will mean the highest risk areas for flooding, landslides and high winds will be north of the storms track in the areas displayed in red blow.

Caloy1 Click the Link for a Full Bulletin Update

Futhermore gale force winds are anticipated up and down the eastern seaboards of the Philippines this coming weekend. Not directly associated with Caloy though but associated with Caloys interaction with a ridging high pressure area pushing in out of China. This is producing a “high gradient induced wind field”. Winds sustained up and down the coastline are likely to be around 50kph. Even in Manila farther north expect breezy conditions this weekend.

Impacts

Impacts

The rain will be the larger impact though from the storm though. Some areas as much as 500mm could fall with generally 100-200mm in the forecast. As mentioned before there is a risk of flooding and landslides in these conditions. Residents in low lying areas and near large rivers should take extra caution with this weekend as persistent rains push on shore.

The video update below is a whole 1 minute long, why? Because my internet cut out and never came back on. So you got what you got right there…

Stay safe out there everyone” – //westernpacificweather.com

NASA’s Aqua satellite sees Tropical System 94W affecting Philippines – phys.org

NASA's Aqua satellite sees Tropical System 94W affecting Philippines
The MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this visible image of low pressure “System 94W” coming together east of the southern Philippines on March 21. Credit: NRL/NASA(via phys.org)

“The tropical low pressure area centered just east of the southern Philippines appeared more organized on visible imagery from NASA’s Aqua satellite on March 21. System 94W appears to be developing and the Philippine authorities have already issued warnings on the system locally designated as “Caloy.”

The MODIS instrument (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of System 94W coming together east of the southern Philippines on March 21 at 5:25 UTC/1:25 a.m. EDT. The image revealed a circulation with the center over the open waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The image showed bands of thunderstorms from System 94W’s western quadrant was draped over the eastern Mindanao region (southern area) of the Philippines and bands of thunderstorms from the storm were over the waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean.

Warnings were posted by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on March 21 at 5 p.m. Signal No. 1 is in effect for parts of the Visayas and Mindanao regions of the Philippines today, March 21.

Signal No. 1 means that sustained winds of 18.6-37.2 mph/30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours. In Visayas, those areas under Signal No. 1 include: Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, the southern part of Negros Occidental and the southern part of Negros Oriental.

In Mindanao, Signal No. 1 is in effect for Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, the southern part of Negros Occidental, and the southern part of Negros Oriental. For additional updates from PAGASA, please visit: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph//

On March 21 at 5 p.m. local time, PAGASA noted that the center of System 94W was located near 8.9 north latitude and 127.8 east longitude, about 310 km/192.6 miles northeast of Davao City or at 170 km/105.6 miles East Northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives System 94W a high chance for developing into a tropical depression in the next day. Meanwhile, PAGASA expects the low to move to the west-northwest over the next couple of days and cross the southern Philippines.” –

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9414.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 130.8E TO 8.7N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201841Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 191304Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS,
PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212200Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

WTPH RPMM 211200
TTT WARNING 04

AT 1200 21 MARCH TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED AT ZERO NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221200 ZERO NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST AT 231200 ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 241200 ONE ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD

WEATHER MANILA

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 211800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 964 HPA
AT 45N 152E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 152E TO 47N 156E 45N 160E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 41N 165E 37N 168E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 36N 158E 30N 152E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 48N 156E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 51N 159E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 30N 122E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 180E EAST 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1800

WWHK82 VHHH 211800
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALES OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.
SYNOPSIS (211800UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
THE INTENSE NORTHEAST MONSOON IS BRINGING GALES TO THE
WARNING AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SEAS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SCS AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
SCATTERED SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS (TS)
OVER SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE STRAIT OF MALACCA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Tongatapu/ Tonga: Tropical Cyclone 15F KOFI 011800Z nr 22.3S 175.4W, moving SW at 12 knots (RSMC Nadi) – Published 010314 2315z

TROPICAL CYCLONE 15F Intensity Category 1

(RSMC NADI)

Tropical Cyclone Kofi 16P Sixteen (JTWC)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP AND IS NOW
CANCELLED FOR THE HAAPAI GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF TONGA.

===================

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone KOFI

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 10 issued 1920 UTC Saturday 1 March 2014

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadis best estimate of the cyclones future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:Tropical Cyclone KOFI

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm March 1 1 22.3S 175.4W 110
+6hr 12 am March 2 1 22.9S 174.9W 140
+12hr 6 am March 2 2 23.6S 174.3W 165
+18hr 12 pm March 2 2 24.2S 173.7W 195
+24hr 6 pm March 2 1 25.1S 172.8W 220
+36hr 6 am March 3 1 27.2S 170.5W 280
+48hr 6 pm March 3 tropical low 29.9S 167.6W 345
+60hr 6 am March 4 tropical low 33.1S 164.3W 430
+72hr 6 pm March 4 tropical low 37.3S 160.9W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 01/1923 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S
175.4W AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EASTERN SEMICRICLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL OF CENTRE MILES ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 23.6S 174.3W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 25.1S 172.8W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 27.2S 170.5W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 29.9S 167.6W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 020200 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Tonga ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
KOFI ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 01/2239 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP AND IS NOW
CANCELLED FOR THE HAAPAI GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF TONGA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CATEGORY 1 CENTRE [988HPA] LOCATED NEAR 22
DECIMAL 8 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF NUKUALOFA AT 012100 UTC.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WIND
SPEED UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. THE AVERAGE
WINDS CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS BY
020600UTC. KOFI MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 205 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF NUKUALOFA AT 020900UTC AND ABOUT 330 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT 022100UTC.

DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE
CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVAERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 KNOTS
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. PERIODS
OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
020200UTC OR EARLIER.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1614.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/16P_011732sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
011800Z NEAR 22.3S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 175.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z 24.4S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 26.4S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 28.4S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z 30.8S 165.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 174.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011653Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NFTF (21.2S 175.1W), APPROXIMATELY
70 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER, INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 28 KNOTS GUSTING TO 48 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP NEAR 993
MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC
16P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW SITUATED
BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU
24, TC 16P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST,
WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN.

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Mar, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KOFI (16P) currently located near 20.2 S 176.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

STORM WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 01/1911 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3
SOUTH 175.4 WEST AT 011800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 020600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.6S 174.3W AT 020600 UTC
AND NEAR 25.1S 172.8W AT 021800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 003.

South West Pacific Marine

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Mar 012000 UTC. PART 1 : WARNING STORM WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 01/1911 UTC 2014 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3 SOUTH 175.4 WEST AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR.REPEAT POSITION 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 020600 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.6S 174.3W AT 020600 UTC AND NEAR 25.1S 172.8W AT 021800 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Mar 021800 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 ANALYSED NEAR 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 05S 178E 08S 178W 13S 173W 16S 172W 21S 172W 25S 175W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 13S OF CZ. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. TROUGH T1 11S 160E 13S 165E 14S 175E 15S 180 17S 178W TO TC KOFI. T1 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1 IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 17S OF T1. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1 OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004 AND SOUTH OF 12S OF T1. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. TROUGH T2 15S 147W 20S 139W 25S 135W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. STATIONARY FRONT SF 20S 175E 25S 177W. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OF SF IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 23S OF SF. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOME SHOWERS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004 IN THE AREA BETWEEN 175E AND 168W AND SOUTH OF 15S EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA BETWEEN EQT AND 07S AND BETWEEN 172E AND 160W, EXPECT MDERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. ROUGH SEAS

Philippines: Tropical Depression KAJIKI/BASYANG 011200Z nr 11.0N 118.0E, moving W at 20 knots. Now over West Philippine Sea- 010214 1342z

Tropical Depression KAJIKI /BASYANG

Philippines:

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

BASYANG HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA.

(PAGASA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

TD a

TD
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 1 February 2014

<Analyses at 01/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N1100′(11.0)
E11800′(118.0)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa

PAGASA-DOSTPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST) Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER NINE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASYANG (KAJIKI)
ISSUED AT 5:00 PM, 01 FEBRUARY 2014

BASYANG HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA.

Location of eye/center:At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression BASYANG was estimated based on all available data at 88 km Southwest of Coron, Palawan (11.6N, 119.5E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement:Forecast to move West at 30 kph

Forecast Position:Tropical Depression BASYANG is expected to be at 764 km West of Coron, Palawan by tomorrow afternoon or outside the PAR.

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

Northern Palawan incl. Calamian Group of Islands, Oriental Mindoro and Occidental Mindoro

Potential Impacts of the Winds
Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is risky
Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 10 mm per hour (moderate heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of Luzon and southern seaboard of Southern Luzon due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.
The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

For more information and queries, Please call at Telephone Numbers 927-1335 And 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9214.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 010900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z NEAR 11.8N 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 290 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 121.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z 12.9N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z 13.9N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 14.9N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 15.3N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM
SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z,
012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

Westernpacificweather.com

Basyang now affecting Northern Part of Palawan

Posted on February 1, 2014

Here is our Basyang Summary

You can download it here:

Baysang Phil Sum


As Basyang traverse Visayas Region it is now currently affecting the last part of its path in the Philippines which is Palawan Province of Luzon Region. The storm has been downgraded by PAGASA into a Tropical Depression and still a Tropical Storm for JMA. Signal No.1 still up in Mindoro Provinces and Palawan as of 5:00 PM today.

With this development Wind Advisory will be still held for Palawan Area and all other Warnings/ Watches/ Advisory are now lowered.

** Remember to refer to your Official Weather Agency!

Westpacwx

More than 18,000 in evacuation centers

Rappler.com
Posted on 02/01/2014 10:42 AM |Updated 02/01/2014 11:55 AM

BASYANG. A handout satellite image made available by the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Adminstration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki) approaching the Philippines, Jan 31, 2014. File photo from NOAA/EPABASYANG. A handout satellite image made available by the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Adminstration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki) approaching the Philippines, Jan 31, 2014. File photo from NOAA/EPA

“MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said on Saturday, February 1, that 3,698 families or 18,518 persons were displaced by Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki).

Evacuees fled to 74 evacuation centers in Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, and the Caraga region, the agency said in its Saturday morning report.

Basyang weakened into a tropical depression as of 11 am Saturday, state weather bureau PAGASA said, with only 10 remaining areas under storm signal no. 1.

The Department of Social Welfare and Development already prepositioned P104.30 million for emergency relief resources, which include standby funds (P54.91 million), 48,044 famliy food packs (P11.67 million), and other food and non-food items (P37.72 million).

The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) also suspended sea trips in all ports in Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental and Siquijor. A total of 9,541 passengers were reportedly stranded.

Meanwhile, at least 45 flights have been cancelled since Friday evening, January 31. (READ: Cancelled flights: Saturday, February 1)

Tent cities, hospitals

In Cebu, Saturday classes in all levels have been suspended. The provincial DRRMC said residents living in the tent city at South Road Properties evacuated at the Department of Engineering and Public Works building.

The tent city houses survivors of Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) who fled Tacoban and other parts of Eastern Visayas. The worlds most powerful typhoon flattened entire towns and cities, and left million homeless when it hit the Visayas on Nov 8, 2013.

Pre-emptive evacuations before Basyang were also done for at least 550 families in Cebu.

In Bohol’s Loon Hospital, 2 ambulances, 7 medics and 1 generator set were sent to assist in the evacuation of patients who are currently staying in tent hospitals.

Loon Hospital is one of the 14 hospitals in the province that were damaged by the 7.2-magnitude earthquake last October 2013. (READ: New hospitals to rise in Bohol after quake)

The tropical depression is expected to to be either 521 km northwest of Puerto Princesa City or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Sunday morning.” Jee Geronimo/Rappler.com

MARITIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING
WTPH RPMM 301200
TTT WARNING 02

AT 1200 30 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED AT ONE ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METER PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 311200 ZERO NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AT 011200 ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX AND AT 021200 ONE TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1402 KAJIKI (1402) 1002 HPA
AT 11.2N 120.3E SULU SEA MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 12.2N 117.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 13.4N 115.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 14.9N 112.2E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Mozambique: Low Pressure Area 91S 281400Z 15.4S 41.6E, moving WSW at 10 Knots. High chance of significant Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs (JTWC) – 280114 1945z

Invest 91S

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (RSMC LA REUNION)

(Image: wunderground.com) South Indian Ocean IR (Click image for source)

ZCZC 487
WTIO30 FMEE 281331 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9
2.A POSITION 2014/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/29 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/29 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/01/30 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/01/30 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2014/01/31 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/01/31 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.0
——————————————————-
CORRECTIVE ISSUED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN ERROR IN THE DVORAK TREND CODING – SECTION 3.A
——————————————————-
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKEN ALOFT WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND DEEP CONVECT
IVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE 0700Z.
0922Z AMRS2 ET 1010Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE.
DUE TO A LACK OF POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THIS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS MAINLY SUSTAINED EQUATOR
WARD BY THE MONSOON FLOW.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A SOUTH-WESTWARDS EXPECTED TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS LEAD TIME, PROXIMIT
Y OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE SHOULD LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNIN
G.
WEDNESDAY LATE, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN.
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DEEPEN THIS LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT OR MEDIUM RANGE AND THE ENS
EMBLE FORECAST OF ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY-MORE PROBABILITY FOR A GENESIS OF A TROPICAL STORM.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
NNNN

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9114.gif

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS21 PGTW 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 42.4E TO 19.2S 38.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 281238Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291430Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA.gov91S (Southern Indian Ocean)
Jan. 28, 2014
System 91S
(NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST and saw some of the thunderstorms had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C (purple).
Image Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen)

NASA Spots Developing Tropical System Affecting Mozambique’s Nampala ProvinceNASA’s Aqua satellite captured infrared data on a developing area of tropical low pressure known as System 91S that was brushing the Nampala Province of Mozambique on January 28.

Nampula is a province in northern Mozambique and its eastern coast runs along the Mozambique Channel of the Southern Indian Ocean. When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument known as AIRS captured infrared data on the clouds associated with System 91S.

AIRS showed some of the thunderstorms surrounding the low-level center of circulation had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C, a threshold that indicates strong storms and potentially heavy rainmakers. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that animated multi-spectral satellite imagery showed that the low-level center was consolidating and that there were bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the center – a sign of strengthening.

System 91S was centered near 15.4 south and 41.6 east, about 810 nautical miles northeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Maximum sustained winds are near the threshold for depression status, currently as high as 30 knots. The low is over warm enough waters to support further development.

At 11 a.m. EST on January 28, Nacala, Mozambique, located on coastal Nampula, was reporting drizzle from the fringes of System 91S with thunderstorms expected at night and on January 29.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center give System 91S a high chance for becoming a tropical depression in the next day as it tracks to the southwest in the Mozambique Channel.

Text credit:ツ Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

MARITIME

ZCZC 093
WTIO24 FMEE 281226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30
KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=
NNNN

Philippines/ Mindanao: Tropical Depression 1401 Lingling/ Agaton 201800Z 07N 128E, almost stationary (JMA) – 200114 2206z

Tropical Depression 1401 Lingling/ Agaton (JMA)

Philippines:

As of today, 20 Jan 2014, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)”(PAGASA)

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating  on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) West Pacific IR Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1401

TD
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 20 January 2014

<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N7°00′(7.0°)
E128°00′(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1008hPa

Unit:

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

PAGASA-DOSTPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST) Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, 20 Jan 2014, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Philippine Red Cross

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this time

MARITIME

GALE WARNING NO. 28
For: Strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of Northeast Monsoon.
Issued at 5:00 p.m. today, 20 January 2014To gale force winds is expected to affect the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Caraga Region.
SEABOARD WEATHER WIND FORCE
(KPH)/(KNOTS)
SEA
CONDITION
WAVE
HEIGHTS
(meters)
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF VISAYAS
(Samar and Leyte)
Cloudy skies withlight to moderate rains (52- 68 /28 – 36) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 5.0
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF SOUTHERN LUZON
(Camarines Provinces, Catanduanes, The Eastern coasts of Albay, Eastern coast of Sorsogon and Eastern coast of Quezon including Polillo Island)
Cloudy skies with light rains (52- 68 /28 – 36) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 5.0
THE SEABOARD OF CARAGA REGION
(Surigao and Agusan del Norte)
Cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE SEABOARDS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN VISAYAS
(Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Guimaras, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan and Antique)
Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE NORTHERN SEABOARD OF LUZON, THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON, THE SOUTHERN SEABOARD OF SOUTHERN LUZON
(Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Northern and Eastern coast of Cagayan, Northern coast of Ilocos Norte, Isabela, Aurora, Mindoro Oriental, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate, Burias Island, Southwestern coast of Albay and of Sorsogon, Southern coast of Quezon and of Batangas)
Cloudy skies with light rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF LUZON
(Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Western coast of Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Mindoro Occidental, Western coast of Batangas and Palawan)
Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves.

The next update will be issued at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 201800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 956 HPA
AT 39N 177W SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 39N 177W TO 39N 174W 38N 172W.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 172W TO 36N 166W 32N 162W.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 172W TO 34N 171W 29N 175W 26N 180E 24N 175E.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 1000 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 40N 170W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 41N 166W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 37N 143E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 37N 143E TO 37N 147E 35N 150E.
COLD FRONT FROM 37N 143E TO 34N 140E 32N 136E 29N 132E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 49N 171E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS ALMOST STATIONARY.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 27N 121E 24N 130E 18N 122E 18N 116E 22N 113E 25N 119E 27N
121E FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 10N 107E 14N 109E 14N 113E 08N 110E 10N 107E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 07N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 27N 147E EAST 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1800

WWHK82 VHHH 201800
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALES OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), SEAS NEAR LUZON AND SEAS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF VIETNAM.
SYNOPSIS (201800UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
THE INTENSE NORTHEAST MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALES TO
THE WARNING AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS AFFECTING SEAS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE GALE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER THE SCS, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND SEAS NEAR
LUZON.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
SCATTERED HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) OVER SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS WEST OF BORNEO.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Indian Ocean/ Rodrigues/ Mauritius: Tropical Depression 2 151800Z nr 14.0S 76.3E, moving W at 9 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – 151213 2010z

PLEASE SEE UPDATE >>>>>>>

RODRIGUES (Mauritius) Intense Tropical Cyclone Amara 200900Z nr 18.5S 65.0E, moving WSW at 6 knots (JTWC) 2012131625z

Vietnam: Tropical Storm Podul 141200Z 11.9N 111.0E, moving W at 16 knots (JMA) likely landfall on Friday in S Vietnam (WestPacWx) – 141113 1630z

Tropical Storm 1331 Podul (JMA)

Tropical Depression 32W Pobul (JTWC)

Vietnam

Tropical Depression Zoraida continues to track west towards Vietnam tonight with a likely landfall on Friday in southern Vietnam. Westernpacificweather

(Di chuyển xuống cho bản dịch tiếng Việt) (Scroll down for Vietnamese translation)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

TD a

(Image: JMA) 3 Day track & intensity (Click image for source)

TS 1331 (PODUL)
Issued at 13:15 UTC, 14 November 2013

<Analyses at 14/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N1155′(11.9)
E11100′(111.0)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW220km(120NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N1130′(11.5)
E10850′(108.8)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N1040′(10.7)
E10555′(105.9)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9013.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 141500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141151Z NOV 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (PODUL) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z NEAR 11.8N 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 111.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z 11.3N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z 10.8N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 110.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 141151Z NOV 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 141200).//
NNNN

Other Reports

Haiyan Recovery and a Tropical Depression Landfall in Vietnam Thursday Night Update (Extract)

(G: Have extracted that which relates to Vietnam, for full update go here)

 

Published on November 14, 2013 by

// Westernpacificweather

Tropical Depression Zoraida continues to track west towards Vietnam tonight with a likely landfall on Friday in southern Vietnam.

To call this area of un-organized cloud cover a Tropical System though is kind of a stretch. Regardless of it being dubbed or named a storm though it already has and will continue to bring drenching rain showers for communities south of Hue Vietnam and extending in to Cambodia in to the Weekend.

 

There is the risk of flooding from this storm. Already 50mm has been reported in some out lying islands from the mainland of Vietnam but, it will be nothing compare to the veracity Haiyan brought when it skirted the coastline last week killing 12 people in Vietnam.

. // Westernpacificweather

PLEASE CLICK IMAGE TO DONATE to Philippine Red Cross

Westernpacificweather

Related:

China/Vietnam/Philippines: Tropical Storm 1330 Haiyan 110900Z 22.6N 107.6E, moving N at 9knots(JMA) weakening across S China; New storm for PH 1111131010Z

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1331 PODUL (1331) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 11.9N 111.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 11.5N 108.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 10.7N 105.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1200

WWHK82 VHHH 141200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) PODUL (1331): NIL.
SYNOPSIS (141200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
THE TD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA(SCS)
(1331) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 30
KT WAS NAMED AS PODUL. AT 141200UTC, IT WAS CENTERED WITHIN
60 NM OF 11.8N 111.6E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE W AT ABOUT 16
KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 151200UTC: DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SWELL NE 3 M OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SCS AND SEAS
NEAR TAIWAN.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 120 NM FROM CENTRE OF PODU L(1331).
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE STRAIT OF MALACCA AND THE
SOUTHERN PART OF SCS.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnamese (Translated by Google)

Việt Nam : cơn bão nhiệt ới Podul 141200Z 11.9N 111.0E , di chuyển W tại 16 hải l ( JMA ) c khả nng ổ bộ vào thứ Su trong S Việt Nam ( WestPacWx ) – 141.113 1630z

Bão 1331 Podul ( JMA )
Nhiệt ới suy thoi 32W Pobul ( JTWC )
Việt Nam

” Nhiệt ới suy thoi Zoraida tiếp tục theo dõi ty về pha Việt Nam tối nay với một khả nng ổ bộ vào thứ Su ở miền Nam Việt Nam . ” – Westernpacificweather

( Move Down cho Translation tiếng Việt) ( Di chuyển xuống cho bản dịch tiếng Việt )

(Ảnh: wunderground.com ) truyền hình vệ tinh ( Click vào hình ể xem hình nguồn )

(Ảnh: wunderground.com ) 5 ngày Dự bo ( Click vào hình ể xem hình nguồn )

Cơ quan Kh tượng Nhật Bản

TD một

(Ảnh: JMA ) 3 ngày theo dõi và cường ộ ( Click vào hình ể xem hình nguồn )
TS 1331 ( PODUL )
Pht hành vào 13:15 UTC , 14 thng 11 2013
<Analyses Tại 14/12 UTC>
quy m –
cường ộ –
Vị tr trung tm N11 55 ‘ ( 11,9 )
E111 00 ‘ ( 111,0 )
Hướng và tốc ộ di chuyển W 30km / h ( 16kt )
1002hPa p lực trung ương
Tốc ộ gi tối a gần trung tm 18m / s ( 35kt )
Tốc ộ tối a cơn gi 25m / s ( 50kt )
Diện tch gi 30kt hoặc hơn NW220km ( 120NM )
SE170km ( 90nm )
<Forecast Cho 15/00 UTC>
cường ộ –
Vị tr trung tm của vòng tròn xc suất N11 30 ‘ ( 11,5 )
E108 50 ‘ ( 108,8 )
Hướng và tốc ộ di chuyển W 20km / h ( 12kt )
1000hPa p lực trung ương
Tốc ộ gi tối a gần trung tm 18m / s ( 35kt )
Tốc ộ tối a cơn gi 25m / s ( 50kt )
Bn knh của vòng tròn xc suất 90 km ( 50nm )
<Forecast Cho 15/12 UTC>
cường ộ –
TD
Vị tr trung tm của vòng tròn xc suất N10 40 ‘ ( 10,7 )
E105 55 ‘ ( 105,9 )
Hướng và tốc ộ của phong trào Ty 30km / h ( 15kt )
1004hPa p lực trung ương
Bn knh của vòng tròn xc suất 160km ( 85NM )

ơn vị tnh:
1KT ( hn ) = 1,852 km / h = 0,5144 m / s
1nm ( hải l ) = 1,852 km
Trung tm cảnh bo bão chung ( JTWC )

Google Earth ồ họa Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 141.500

MSGID / GENADMIN / PHẦN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE CẢNH BO / /
REF / A / PHẦN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141151Z thng 11 13 / /
AMPN / REF Một IS bão nhiệt ới HÌNH BO / /
RMKS /
1 . Nhiệt ới suy thoi 32W ( PODUL ) Ch NR 001
01 ACTIVE cơn bão nhiệt ới TRÊN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SINH Gi DỰA VÀO TRUNG BÌNH MỘT PHT
WIND bn knh c hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ

Ch VỊ TR :
111.6E 11.8N NEAR – 141200Z
CHUYỂN QUA SU GIỜ – 275 ộ tại 15 KTS
Vị tr chnh xc ể trong vòng 060 NM
VỊ TR DỰA VÀO TRUNG TM nằm qua vệ tinh
HIỆN PHN PHỐI WIND :
MAX SINH Gi – 025 KT , Cơn 035 KT
WIND bn knh c hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
Lặp lại thừa nhận : 11.8N 111.6E

DỰ BO :
12 HRS, VALID AT :
150000Z – 11.3N 108.6E
MAX sức gi – 030 KT , Cơn 040 KT
WIND bn knh c hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
Tiêu tan AS bão nhiệt ới YẾU VỀ ẤT
VECTOR TO 24 nhn sự thừa nhận : 260 DEG / 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT :
151200Z – 10.8N 105.4E
MAX SINH Gi – 020 KT , Cơn 030 KT
WIND bn knh c hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
n chơi như bão nhiệt ới YẾU VỀ ẤT

GHI CH :
VỊ TR 141500Z NEAR 110.8E 11.7N .
Nhiệt ới suy thoi 32W ( PODUL ) , nằm ​​khoảng 294 NM
EAST – ng bắc THÀNH PHỐ HỒ CH MINH, VIỆT NAM , ã theo dõi WESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS VỀ QU KHỨ su giờ. TỐI A YẾU WAVE CAO
AT 141200Z IS 10 Bàn chn . CẢNH BO TIẾP AT 142100Z , 150300Z VÀ
150900Z . Cảnh bo này thay thế và hủy bỏ REF A, PHẦN TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 141151Z 13 thng 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE HÌNH THÀNH
ALERT ( WTPN21 PGTW 141.200 ) . / /
NNNN
bo co khc
Haiyan phục hồi và một Landfall suy thoi nhiệt ới ở Việt Nam Ðêm Thứ Nm Cập nhật ( Extract)

( G : c chiết xuất rằng c liên quan ến Việt Nam , ể cập nhật ầy ủ i y )

ược ng trên 14 thng 11 nm 2013 bởi robspeta

/ / Westernpacificweather

” Nhiệt ới suy thoi Zoraida tiếp tục theo dõi ty về pha Việt Nam tối nay với một khả nng ổ bộ vào thứ Su ở miền Nam Việt Nam .

ể gọi khu vực này chưa c tổ chức m my bao gồm một hệ thống nhiệt ới mặc dù là loại một oạn . Bất kể n ược mệnh danh hoặc tên một cơn bão mặc dù n ã c và sẽ tiếp tục mang lại tắm mưa ướt cho cc cộng ồng pha nam của Huế Việt Nam và mở rộng vào Campuchia vào cuối tuần .

C nguy cơ lũ lụt từ cơn bão này . ã 50mm ã ược bo co trong một số ra nằm ảo từ ất liền của Việt Nam , nhưng n sẽ khng c gì so snh với tnh xc thực Haiyan mang khi i men theo bờ biển tuần trước giết chết 12 người ở Việt Nam .

. ” – Robspeta / / Westernpacificweather

XIN CLICK IMAGE ể quyên gp cho Hội Chữ thập ỏ Philippines

– Westernpacificweather
liên quan :

Trung Quốc / Việt Nam / Philippines : Bão 1330 Haiyan 110900Z 22.6N 107.6E , di chuyển N tại 9knots ( JMA ) suy yếu trên S Trung Quốc , cơn bão mới cho PH – 111.113 1010Z
HÀNG HẢI
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 141.200
CẢNH BO 141.200 .
CẢNH BO GI TRỊ 151.200 .
Cảnh bo ược cập nhật mỗi 6 giờ.
GALE Ch .
TROPICAL STORM 1331 PODUL (1331 ) nng cấp từ p thấp nhiệt ới
1002 HPA
AT 11.9N 111.0E BIỂN NG tới miền Ty 16 hải l.
VỊ TR CNG BẰNG .
MAX gi 35 KNOTS gần trung tm .
RADIUS HƠN 30 Gi nt, nơ 120 dặm NORTHWEST hình bn nguyệt và 90
Dặm ghi ở nơi khc .
DỰ BO CHO VỊ TR 150000UTC AT 11.5N 108.8E VỚI 50 dặm RADIUS
HÀNH 70 PHẦN TRM XC SUẤT CIRCLE .
1000 HPA , MAX Gi 35 KNOTS gần trung tm .
DỰ BO CHO VỊ TR 151200UTC AT 10.7N 105.9E VỚI 85 dặm RADIUS
HÀNH 70 PHẦN TRM XC SUẤT CIRCLE .
1004 HPA .
TRỞ THÀNH p thấp nhiệt ới .

Nhật Bản KH TƯỢNG CƠ QUAN . =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1200

WWHK82 VHHH 141.200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG KH TƯỢNG DỊCH VỤ CUNG CẤP SAU
CẢNH BO / THNG TIN VỀ BIỂN NG .
CẢNH BO
Nhiệt ới trầm cảm ( TD ) PODUL (1331 ) : NIL .
TM TẮT ( 141200UTC ) VÀ DỰ BO 24 GIỜ
CC TD VỀ phần pha nam của Biển ng ( Biển ng )
(1331 ) VỚI P LỰC TRUNG ƯƠNG 998 HPA và sức gi tối a 30
KT ược ặt tên là PODUL . AT 141200UTC , là trung tm trong
60 NM HÀNH 111.6E 11.8N và ược dự bo MOVE W AT Giới thiệu về 16
KT CHO TỚI 24 GIỜ .
DỰ BO VỊ TR AT 151200UTC : tiêu tan VỀ ẤT .
Sưng lên / CAO SEAS YẾU
Sưng lên NE 3 M VỀ phần pha bắc của Biển ng và vùng biển
NEAR ài Loan.
Sấm st / thời tiết khắc nghiệt
THƯỜNG nặng có gió th̉i từng cơn (SQ ) Rào ( SH ) và dng
( TS ) TRONG VÒNG 120 NM TỪ TRUNG TM PODU L (1331 ) .
TẢN SQ SH và TS qua eo biển Malacca và
Phần pha nam của Biển ng.
SEA FOG / TẦM NHÌN GIẢM
TẦM NHÌN xuống 500 M TRÊN SQ SH và TS .

Khng sử dụng bất kỳ thng tin trên trang web này ể quyết ịnh sự sống hay ci chết . Tất cả cc thng tin ược thiết kế như bổ sung cc nguồn tin chnh thức . Vui lòng tham khảo cơ quan / chnh phủ thời tiết trang web chnh thức của nước bạn ể cảnh bo ịa phương , khuyến co và cc bản tin .

Vietnam: Tropical Depression 30W 061200Z nr 11.3N 109.2E, moving W at 13 kts (JMA) – 061113 1920Z

Tropical Depression 30W

(Scroll down for Vietnamese) (Di chuyển xuống cho người Việt Nam)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

TD c

TD
Issued at 13:15 UTC, 6 November 2013

<Analyses at 06/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N11°20′(11.3°)
E109°10′(109.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

VIETNAM

Vietnam political map

(Image: geology.com) Vietnam political map

VIETNAM NATIONAL CENTRE FOR HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING

G: No Tropical Depression Warning for TD 30W but VNCHMF have issued –

TYPHOON WARNING (G: Super Typhoon Haiyan Cat 5 at time of writing)

TC TRACKS
TYPHOON WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Wednesday, November 06, 2013 8.1 135.3 TY 204 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Thursday, November 07, 2013 10.2 129.0 TY 213 km/hour
22 Friday, November 08, 2013 12.1 121.5 TY 185 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 05:30 PM Thursday, November 06, 2013

 

Satellite Imagery

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp3013.gif

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

 

WTPN32 PGTW 060900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 013

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

060600Z — NEAR 11.6N 110.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 110.0E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

061800Z — 11.4N 106.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:

070600Z — 11.4N 103.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:

060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 109.1E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM

EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD

AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVOLVING STRUCTURE AS THE SYSTEM

APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHALLOW AND

BECOMES FURTHER BROKEN ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES OF AN ELONGATING

AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND

FURTHER ERODE DUE TO THE LAND EFFECTS OF VIETNAM AND CAMBODIA,

LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12

HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON

WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR

SIGNS OF REGENERATION AS IT TRACKS WEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF

THAILAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31W (HAIYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR

SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1200

WWHK82 VHHH 061200

40:1:31:11:01:00

HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING

WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

WARNINGS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD): NIL.

SYNOPSIS (061200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST

AT 061200UTC, TD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA

SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT

WAS CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 11.2N 108.9E AND IS FORECAST

TO MOVE W AT ABOUT 15 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITION AT 071200UTC: DISSIPATED OVER SEAS.

SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS

SWELL NE 3 M OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH

CHINA SEA AND THE TAIWAN STRAIT.

THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER

FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS

(TS) WITHIN 120 NM FROM CENTRE OF THE TD.

SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR THE MALAY PENINSULA.

SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY

VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Vietnamese (Translated by Google)

Nhiệt đới suy thoái # 30W 061200Z nr 11.3N 109.2E , di chuyển W tại 13 kts ( JMA ) – 061.113 1920Z

Nhiệt đới suy thoái 30W

( Di chuyển xuống cho người Việt Nam ) ( Move Down for the Việt Nam)

(Ảnh: wunderground.com ) 5 ngày Dự báo ( Click vào hình để xem hình nguồn )

(Ảnh: wunderground.com ) truyền hình vệ tinh ( Click vào hình để xem hình nguồn )
Cơ quan Khí tượng Nhật Bản

TD c
TD
Phát hành vào 13:15 UTC , 06 tháng 11 2013
<Analyses Tại 12/6 UTC>
quy mô –
cường độ –
TD
Vị trí trung tâm N11 ° 20 ‘ ( 11,3 ° )
E109 ° 10 ‘ ( 109,2 ° )
Hướng và tốc độ di chuyển W 25km / h ( 13kt )
1006hPa áp lực trung ương
Tốc độ gió tối đa gần trung tâm 15m / s ( 30kt )
Tốc độ cơn gió tối đa 23m / s ( 45kt )
VIỆT NAM

Việt Nam bản đồ chính trị

(Ảnh: geology.com ) Việt Nam bản đồ chính trị
QUỐC GIA VIỆT NAM TRUNG TÂM THỦY KHÍ TƯỢNG DỰ ĐOÁN

G : Không có khủng hoảng Cảnh báo nhiệt đới cho TD 30W nhưng VNCHMF đã ban hành –

TYPHOON Chú ý ( G : Siêu bão Haiyan Cát 5 tại thời điểm viết bài )
TC TRACKS
TYPHOON CẢNH BÁO

Phân tích vị trí và cường độ

Giờ địa phương (GMT +7)

ngày

Chức vụ

phân loại

Gió duy trì tối đa
22 Thứ Tư 6 Tháng Mười Một, 2013 8.1 135,3 TY 204 km / giờ

Vị trí và cường độ dự báo

Giờ địa phương (GMT +7)

ngày

Chức vụ

phân loại

Gió duy trì tối đa
22 Thứ Năm 7 tháng 11, 2013 10,2 129,0 TY 213 km / giờ
22 Thứ Sáu 8 tháng 11, năm 2013 12,1 121,5 TY 185 km / giờ
Ghi chú cho hình ảnh :
Khu vực xác suất gió lớn hơn 6 Beauforts
Khu vực xác suất gió lớn hơn 10 Beauforts
Khu vực có thể đi qua các trung tâm TC
Vị trí trước đây của TC
Vị trí dự báo của TC
Vị trí trước đây của TD
Vị trí dự báo của TD
* Các Bản tin tiếp theo được phát vào 17:30 thứ Năm 6 Tháng Mười Một, 2013

Các hình ảnh vệ tinh
Trung tâm cảnh báo bão chung ( JTWC )

(Ảnh: JTWC ) TC Cảnh báo đồ họa ( Nhấn vào ảnh để nguồn )

WTPN32 PGTW 060.900

MSGID / GENADMIN / PHẦN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /

SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE CẢNH BÁO / /

RMKS /

1 . Nhiệt đới suy thoái 30W ( ba mươi ) Chú ý NR 013

02 cơn bão nhiệt đới hoạt động trong NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SINH Gió DỰA VÀO TRUNG BÌNH MỘT PHÚT

WIND bán kính có hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ

Chú ý VỊ TRÍ :

060600Z — 11.6N 110.0E NEAR

CHUYỂN QUA SÁU GIỜ – 265 độ tại 12 KTS

Vị trí chính xác để trong vòng 060 NM

VỊ TRÍ DỰA VÀO TRUNG TÂM nằm qua vệ tinh

HIỆN PHÂN PHỐI WIND :

MAX SINH Gió – 025 KT , Cơn 035 KT

WIND bán kính có hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ

Tiêu tan AS bão nhiệt đới YẾU VỀ NƯỚC

Lặp lại thừa nhận : 11.6N 110.0E

DỰ BÁO :

12 HRS, VALID AT :

061800Z — 11.4N 106.6E

MAX SINH Gió – 020 KT , Cơn 030 KT

WIND bán kính có hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ

Ăn chơi như bão nhiệt đới YẾU VỀ ĐẤT

VECTOR TO 24 nhân sự thừa nhận : 270 DEG / 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT :

070600Z — 11.4N 103.3E

MAX SINH Gió – 015 KT , Cơn 025 KT

WIND bán kính có hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ

Ăn chơi như bão nhiệt đới YẾU VỀ ĐẤT

GHI CHÚ :

VỊ TRÍ 060900Z NEAR 109.1E 11.5N .

Nhiệt đới suy thoái 30W ( ba mươi ) , nằm ​​khoảng 200 NM

EAST – ĐÔNG BẮC THÀNH PHỐ HỒ CHÍ MINH , VIỆT NAM , đã theo dõi WESTWARD

AT 12 KNOTS VỀ QUÁ KHỨ sáu giờ. đa phổ ANIMATED

Hình ảnh vệ tinh cho thấy một cơ cấu phân cấp như hệ thống

PHƯƠNG PHÁP TIẾP CẬN BIỂN CỦA VIỆT NAM . ĐỐI LƯU tiếp tục là nông cạn và

TRỞ THÀNH tiếp tục chia những vùng ngoại vi bên ngoài của elongating

VÀ MỘT PHẦN tiếp xúc ở mức độ thấp TRUNG TÂM LƯU THÔNG ( LLCC ) . THE

Hệ thống dự kiến ​​sẽ đổ bộ vào CÁC GIỜ TIẾP THEO MỘT SỐ VÀ

THÊM xói mòn do ảnh hưởng ĐẤT VIỆT NAM VÀ CAMPUCHIA ,

Dẫn đến phân tán của nó DƯỚI ĐÂY Chú ý THRESHOLD trong vòng 12

GIỜ . ĐÂY LÀ cảnh báo cuối cùng trên hệ thống này bởi cơn bão PHẦN

WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI . HỆ THỐNG SẼ ĐƯỢC chặt chẽ theo dõi

Dấu hiệu tái sinh AS nó theo dõi TÂY ĐỐI VỚI GULF OF

THÁI LAN . TỐI ĐA YẾU WAVE CAO AT 060600Z là 12 feet .

THAM KHẢO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31W ( Haiyan ) CẢNH BÁO ( WTPN33 PGTW ) CHO

CẬP NHẬT Six – GIỜ . / /

NNNN
HÀNG HẢI
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1200

WWHK82 VHHH 061.200

40:1:31:11:01:00

HONG KONG KHÍ TƯỢNG DỊCH VỤ CUNG CẤP SAU

CẢNH BÁO / THÔNG TIN VỀ BIỂN ĐÔNG .

CẢNH BÁO

Áp thấp nhiệt đới ( TD ) : NIL .

TÓM TẮT ( 061200UTC ) VÀ DỰ BÁO 24 GIỜ

AT 061200UTC , TD trên phần phía nam của Trung Quốc

SEA VỚI TRUNG ÁP 1002 HPA VÀ TỐI ĐA Gió 25 KT

Được tập trung TRONG 90 NM HÀNH 108.9E 11.2N và được dự báo

TO MOVE W khoảng 15 KT CHO TỚI 24 GIỜ .

DỰ BÁO VỊ TRÍ AT 071200UTC : tiêu tan trên biển .

Sưng lên / CAO SEAS YẾU

Sưng lên NE 3 M VỀ miền Trung và Nam CỦA NAM

BIỂN ĐÔNG VÀ eo biển Đài Loan .

Sấm sét / thời tiết khắc nghiệt

THƯỜNG nặng có gió thổi từng cơn (SQ ) Rào ( SH ) và dông

( TS ) TRONG VÒNG 120 NM TỪ TRUNG TÂM CỦA TD .

Rải rác SQ SH và TS trên biển gần bán đảo Mã Lai .

SEA FOG / TẦM NHÌN GIẢM

TẦM NHÌN xuống 500 M TRÊN SQ SH và TS .

China/Vietnam: Tropical Storm 29W Krosa 040900Z near 17.3N 110.5E, moving SW at 14 knots(JMA) TD (JTWC) – 041113 1330z

JMA has classified Krosa as a Tropical Storm

JTWC has classified

Krosa as a Tropical Depression

(Scroll down for Chinese and Vietnamese translations)

(向下滾動中國和越南的翻譯)(Di chuyển xuống cho cc bản dịch Trung Quốc và Việt Nam)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

(Image: JMA) 3 day track & intensity (Click image for source)

TS 1329 (KROSA)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 4 November 2013

<Analyses at 04/09 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N1720′(17.3)
E11030′(110.5)
Direction and speed of movement SW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW220km(120NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 04/21 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N1520′(15.3)
E10855′(108.9)
Direction and speed of movement SW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 05/09 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N1240′(12.7)
E10710′(107.2)
Direction and speed of movement SSW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

Severe Weather Bulletin 15
Tropical cyclone warning: Typhoon #VintaPH (KROSA)
Issued at 4:00PM, 01 November 2013

TY VINTA is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility(PAR).

Location of eye/center: At 3:00 PM today, the eye of TY VINTA was located based on all available data at 270 km West Northwest of Laoag City (19.3N, 118.0E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 160 kph.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 22 kph.

Forecast Position: TY VINTA is expected to be at 750 km West Northwest of Laoag City or at 310 km South Southwest of Hong Kong by tomorrow afternoon.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5.0 15.0 mm per hour (moderate heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.
All Public Storm Warning Signals now lowered. However, sea travel is still risky over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon and over the western seaboard of Central Luzon.
With this development, this is the final weather bulletin for this weather disturbance.

Hong Kong Observatory

VIETNAM _NATIONAL CENTRE FOR HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

16 Monday, November 04, 2013 17.2 110.7 TS 65 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

16 Tuesday, November 05, 2013 13.6 106.5 Low 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:30 PM Monday, November 04, 2013
Satellite Imagery

Tropical depression ATND/Haiyan warning (04/11/2013)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2913.gif

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 040300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (KROSA) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 29W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040000Z — NEAR 18.6N 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 112.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 16.8N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 15.0N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 111.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AND
STRIPPED OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DEDUCED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE
RAPID WEAKENING TREND. TD 29W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO BELOW THE
25-KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 12 AS PERSISTENTLY HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 31W (THIRTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

Other Reports

MARITIME

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1329 KROSA (1329) 1002 HPA
AT 17.7N 111.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 15.4N 109.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 13.0N 107.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 040600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) KROSA (1329): NIL.
GALES OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
SYNOPSIS (040600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 040600UTC, TD KROSA (1329) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000
HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 60 NM OF
17.6N 111.2E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW AT ABOUT 14 KT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 050600UTC: DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
AN INTENSE NE MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALES TO THE
TAIWAN STRAIT.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER GALE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER N AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 30 NM FROM CENTRE OF KROSA (1329).
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

END

Chinese (Translated by Google)

中國/越南:熱帶風暴29W Vinta /羅莎附近17.3N 110.5E ,移動西南14海裡( JMA ) TD (聯合颱風警報中心) – 040900Z 041113 1330z

日本氣象廳分類為熱帶風暴羅莎
聯合颱風警報中心分類
羅莎作為一個熱帶低氣壓

(向下滾動中國和越南的翻譯)

(向下滾動中國和越南的翻譯) (迪chuyển xuống町CAC潘基DICH Trung QUOC的VA越南)

(圖片: wunderground.com )五天天氣預報(點擊圖片源)

(圖片提供: wunderground.com )衛星(點擊圖片來源)

日本氣象廳

(圖片提供: JMA ) 3天田徑強度(點擊圖片源)
TS 1329 (羅莎)
發行於2013年11月4日, 09:40 UTC
在四月九日UTC>的<Analyses
秤 –
強度 –
中心位置N17 20′ ( 17.3 )
E110 30′ (110.5 )
方向和速度運動西南25KM /小時( 14克拉)
中央壓力1004hPa
附近的中心18M / s的最大風速( 35克拉)
最大陣風線速度25m / s的( 50克拉)
區的風30克拉或更多NW220km ( 120NM )
SE170km ( 90NM )
4月21日UTC> <Forecast
強度 –
概率圈的中心位置N15 20′ ( 15.3 )
E108 55′ (108.9 )
方向和速度運動西南25KM /小時( 14克拉)
中央壓力1002hPa
附近的中心18M / s的最大風速( 35克拉)
最大陣風線速度25m / s的( 50克拉)
半徑概率圓90公里( 50NM )
為五月九日UTC>的<Forecast
強度 –
TD
中心位置的概率圓N12 40′ ( 12.7 )
E107 10 ‘ (107.2 )
方向和速度運動西南25KM /小時( 14克拉)
中央壓力1006hPa
半徑概率圓160公里( 85NM )

單位:
1KT (結) = 1.852公里每小時= 0.5144米/秒
1NM海裡= 1.852公里

PAGASA外輪理貨

菲律賓大氣,地球物理和天文服務管理( PAGASA -外輪理貨)

菲律賓奎松市,

惡劣天氣通報15
熱帶氣旋警告:颱風的# VintaPH (羅莎)
在2013年11月1日下午4:00,發行

TY VINTA 現在是菲律賓地區外責任( PAR ) 。

眼睛/中心的位置:今日下午3:00 ,眼TY VINTA 位於拉瓦格市西北270公里西( 19.3 N , 118.0 E )的所有可用數據的基礎上的。

強度:最大持續風速靠近市中心和160公里,陣風可達每小時130公里。

機芯:預測西北22公里向西移動。

預測位置: TY的 VINTA 明天下午,預計將在750公里的西北西的拉奧格或在香港西南310公里南。

預計降雨量為5.0 – 15.0毫米每小時(中度 – 重度)颱風直徑500公里內。
所有公共風暴警告信號,現在降低。然而,海上旅遊仍是有風險的北呂宋北部和西部沿海地帶,並在呂宋島中部的西部海岸。
這方面的發展,這是最後的天氣,這樣的天氣干擾公報。

香港天文台
:越南_NATIONAL水文氣象預報中心
熱帶風暴警報
TC軌道

熱帶風暴警報

分析位置和強度

當地時間(GMT +7 )

位置

分類

最大持續風力
16日(星期一) , 11月04 , 2013 17.2 110.7 TS 65公里/小時

預測的位置和強度

當地時間(GMT +7 )

位置

分類

最大持續風力
16 , 2013年11月5日(週二) 13.6 106.5低37公里/小時
圖片說明:
概率領域風力大於6博福特
概率擰區域大於10博福特
颱風中心可能通過區域
過去位置的TC
預測位置的TC
過去位置的TD
預測位置TD
*未來的預測軌跡地圖將發行, 2013年11月4日(星期一)下午9:30
衛星影像

熱帶的抑鬱ATND /海鹽警告( 04/11/2013 )
聯合颱風警報中心( JTWC )

(圖片提供:聯合颱風警報中心) TC警告圖形(點擊圖片來源)

谷歌地球圖形疊加

WTPN31 PGTW 040300

,MSGID / GENADMIN的的/合營號颱風 WRNCEN 珍珠港HI / /
的SUBJ /熱帶氣旋警告/ /
RMKS /
1。熱帶低氣壓29W (羅莎)警告NR 025
降級熱帶風暴29W
03個活躍的熱帶氣旋NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘平均最大持續風速
風半徑僅在開放的水有效

警告位置:
040000Z —近18.6N 112.3E
運動過去六小時 – 230度11 KTS
位置精確到010海裡內
基於位置的組合中心
衛星和雷達
目前風分佈:
最大持續風速 – 025 KT ,陣風035 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在水消散
重複POSIT : 18.6N 112.3E

預測:
12小時,有效的:
041200Z — 16.8N 110.3E
最大持續風速 – 020 KT ,陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在水消耗
矢量24 HR POSIT : 225度/ 13 KTS

24小時,有效的:
050000Z — 15.0N 108.4E
最大持續風速 – 020 KT ,陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消耗

備註:
18.1N 111.8E 040300Z位置附近。
熱帶低壓( TD ) 29W (羅莎) ,位於約246 nm
西南偏南香港,以11節的速度向西南跟踪
在過去的六個小時。動畫多光譜衛星圖像
低層環流中心已成為充分暴露
剝奪任何重大對流。最初的立場是基於
上述動畫與高可信度。初始強度
推導出從德沃夏克估計所有機構,反映了
迅速減弱的趨勢。 TD 29W以下預期減弱
持續高垂直TAU 12 25結警告閾值
風切變繼續侵蝕系統。這是最後的警告
這個系統按聯合颱風WRNCEN的珍珠港HI 。本
系統將密切監察再生的跡象。最大
AT 040000Z的有效波高為18英尺。參考熱帶
抑鬱30W (三十)警告( WTPN32 PGTW )六小時
更新。符號熱帶風暴31W ( THIRTYONE )的警告( WTPN33
PGTW )六小時更新。 / /

其他報告
海事

METAREA11 / / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN的0600

WTJP21 RJTD 040600
警告040600 。
警告有效050600 。
警告6小時更新一次。
烈風警告。
熱帶風暴羅莎(1329 )1002 1329 HPA
AT 17.7N 111.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA移動西南12海裡。
位置公允。
中心附近最大風35海裡。
超過30個結風半徑120英里西北半圓和90
MILES ELSEWHERE 。
預測位置在50英里半徑15.4N 109.5E 041800UTC
70 %的概率圓。
MAX WINDS 1002百帕,中心附近35海裡。
預測位置在85英里半徑13.0N 107.6E 050600UTC
70 %的概率圓。
1006百帕。
熱帶低氣壓BECOMING 。

日本氣象廳。
METAREA11 / / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA的0600

WWHK82 VHHH 040600
40:1:31:11:01:00
香港氣象服務提供了以下
警告/信息為南中國南海。
警告
熱帶低壓( TD )羅莎(1329 ):無。
台灣海峽的GALES 。
內容簡介( 040600UTC )及24小時預報
AT 040600UTC , TD羅莎( 1329) ,中心氣壓1000
HPA和60海裡內為中心最大風速25 KT
17.6N 111.2E ,並預測要移動西南約14克拉
在接下來的24小時內。
預測位置AT 050600UTC : ,消散土地。
一股強烈東北季風有望帶來GALES ,到
台灣海峽。
大湧浪/ SEAS
SEAS 6米以上烈風警告區。
SWELL NE 3 M對N和中部地區的南海。
雷暴/惡劣天氣
( SQ )頻繁狂風驟雨( SH )和雷暴
(TS)的中心羅莎(1329 ) 30海裡範圍內。
散SQ sh和TS在菲律賓附近海域。
在南部一部分的南隔離SQ SH和TS
中國海。
海霧/低能見度
能見度向下SQ M IN SH和TS 500 。

Vietnamese (Translated by Google)

Trung Quốc / Việt Nam : cơn bão nhiệt ới 29W Vinta / Krosa 040900Z gần 17.3N 110.5E , di chuyển SW 14 hải l ( JMA ) TD ( JTWC ) – 041.113 1330z

JMA ã phn loại Krosa như một cơn bão nhiệt ới
JTWC ã phn loại
Krosa như một p thấp nhiệt ới

( Di chuyển xuống cho cc bản dịch Trung Quốc và Việt Nam )

(向下 滚动 中国 和 越南 的 翻译) ( ​​Move Down for Translation Trung Quốc and Việt Nam)

(Ảnh: wunderground.com ) 5 ngày Dự bo ( Click vào hình ể xem hình nguồn )

(Ảnh: wunderground.com ) truyền hình vệ tinh ( Click vào hình ể xem hình nguồn )

Cơ quan Kh tượng Nhật Bản

(Ảnh: JMA ) 3 ngày theo dõi và cường ộ ( Click vào hình ể xem hình nguồn )
TS 1329 ( KROSA )
Ban hành lc 09:40 UTC , 04 Thng 11 2013
<Analyses Tại 09/04 UTC>
quy m –
cường ộ –
Vị tr trung tm N17 20 ‘ ( 17,3 )
E110 30 ‘ ( 110,5 )
Hướng và tốc ộ của phong trào Ty 25km / h ( 14kt )
1004hPa p lực trung ương
Tốc ộ gi tối a gần trung tm 18m / s ( 35kt )
Tốc ộ tối a cơn gi 25m / s ( 50kt )
Diện tch gi 30kt hoặc hơn NW220km ( 120NM )
SE170km ( 90nm )
<Forecast Cho 21/4 UTC>
cường ộ –
Vị tr trung tm của vòng tròn xc suất N15 20 ‘ ( 15,3 )
E108 55 ‘ ( 108,9 )
Hướng và tốc ộ của phong trào Ty 25km / h ( 14kt )
1002hPa p lực trung ương
Tốc ộ gi tối a gần trung tm 18m / s ( 35kt )
Tốc ộ tối a cơn gi 25m / s ( 50kt )
Bn knh của vòng tròn xc suất 90 km ( 50nm )
<Forecast Cho 09/05 UTC>
cường ộ –
TD
Vị tr trung tm của vòng tròn xc suất N12 40 ‘ ( 12,7 )
E107 10 ‘ ( 107,2 )
Hướng và tốc ộ của phong trào Ty Nam 25 km / h ( 14kt )
1006hPa p lực trung ương
Bn knh của vòng tròn xc suất 160km ( 85NM )

ơn vị tnh:
1KT ( hn ) = 1,852 km / h = 0,5144 m / s
1nm ( hải l ) = 1,852 km

Pagasa – Sở KHCN

Philippines kh quyển, ịa vật l và thiên vn Dịch vụ Quản trị ( Pagasa – Sở KHCN )

Quezon City, Philippines

Thời tiết Bulletin nghiêm trọng 15
Nhiệt ới cảnh bo cơn bão : bão ” # VintaPH ” ( KROSA )
Ban hành lc 4:00 PM , ngày 01 Thng 11 nm 2013

TY ” Vinta ” by giờ bên ngoài khu vực của Philippines Trch nhiệm ( cải cch hành chnh ) .

Vị tr của mắt / trung tm : Tại 03:00 ngày hm nay, mắt của TY ” Vinta ” ược ặt dựa trên tất cả cc dữ liệu c sẵn tại 270 km Ty Ty Bắc của thành phố Laoag ( 19.3 N , 118,0 E ) .

Sức mạnh: sức gi tối a 130 KPH gần trung tm và gustiness lên ến 160 KPH .

Phong trào: Dự bo ến di chuyển Ty Ty Bắc tại 22 KPH .

Dự bo Chức vụ: TY ” Vinta ” dự kiến ​​sẽ c mặt tại 750 km Ty Ty Bắc của thành phố Laoag hoặc 310 km Nam Ty Nam của Hồng Kng vào chiều ngày mai .

lượng mưa dự kiến ​​là 5,0-15,0 mm mỗi giờ ( trung bình – nặng ) trong ường knh 500 km của bão .
Tất cả cc hồ bão tn hiệu cảnh bo tại hạ xuống. Tuy nhiên , du lịch biển vẫn còn nhiều rủi ro hơn cc seaboards pha bắc và pha ty của Bắc Luzon và trên bờ biển pha ty của miền Trung Luzon .
Với sự pht triển này, y là bản tin thời tiết cuối cùng cho xo trộn thời tiết này .

ài quan st Hồng Kng
VIỆT NAM _NATIONAL TRUNG TM THỦY KH TƯỢNG DỰ ON
Cơn bão nhiệt ới CẢNH BO
TC TRACKS

Cơn bão nhiệt ới CẢNH BO

Phn tch vị tr và cường ộ

Giờ ịa phương (GMT +7)

ngày

Chức vụ

phn loại

Gi duy trì tối a
16 Thứ hai 4 Thng 11, 2013 17.2 110.7 TS 65 km / giờ

Vị tr và cường ộ dự bo

Giờ ịa phương (GMT +7)

ngày

Chức vụ

phn loại

Gi duy trì tối a
16 Thứ ba 5 Thng 11, nm 2013 13,6 106,5 Thấp nhất 37 km / giờ
Ghi ch cho hình ảnh :
Khu vực xc suất gi lớn hơn 6 Beauforts
Khu vực xc suất gi lớn hơn 10 Beauforts
Khu vực c thể i qua cc trung tm TC
Vị tr trước y của TC
Vị tr dự bo của TC
Vị tr trước y của TD
Vị tr dự bo của TD
* Cc Bản tin tiếp theo ược pht vào 09:30 thứ Hai 4 thng 11, nm 2013
Cc hình ảnh vệ tinh

Nhiệt ới trầm cảm ATND / Haiyan cảnh bo ( 2013/04/11 )
Trung tm cảnh bo bão chung ( JTWC )

(Ảnh: JTWC ) TC Cảnh bo ồ họa ( Nhấn vào ảnh ể nguồn )

Google Earth ồ họa Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 040.300

MSGID / GENADMIN / PHẦN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE CẢNH BO / /
RMKS /
1 . Nhiệt ới suy thoi 29W ( KROSA ) Ch NR 025
Hạ cấp từ 29W cơn bão nhiệt ới
03 cơn bão nhiệt ới hoạt ộng trong NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SINH Gi DỰA VÀO TRUNG BÌNH MỘT PHT
WIND bn knh c hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ

Ch VỊ TR :
040000Z — 18.6N 112.3E NEAR
CHUYỂN QUA SU GIỜ – 230 ộ tại 11 KTS
Vị tr chnh xc ể trong vòng 010 NM
VỊ TR DỰA VÀO TRUNG TM nằm một trong số cc
Vệ tinh và radar
HIỆN PHN PHỐI WIND :
MAX SINH Gi – 025 KT , Cơn 035 KT
WIND bn knh c hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
Tiêu tan AS bão nhiệt ới YẾU VỀ NƯỚC
Lặp lại thừa nhận : 18.6N 112.3E

DỰ BO :
12 HRS, VALID AT :
041200Z — 16.8N 110.3E
MAX SINH Gi – 020 KT , Cơn 030 KT
WIND bn knh c hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
n chơi như bão nhiệt ới YẾU VỀ NƯỚC
VECTOR TO 24 nhn sự thừa nhận : 225 DEG / 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT :
050000Z — 15.0N 108.4E
MAX SINH Gi – 020 KT , Cơn 030 KT
WIND bn knh c hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
n chơi như bão nhiệt ới YẾU VỀ ẤT

GHI CH :
VỊ TR 040300Z NEAR 111.8E 18.1N .
Nhiệt ới trầm cảm ( TD ) 29W ( KROSA ) , nằm ​​khoảng 246 NM
SOUTH -ty nam của Hong Kong , ã theo dõi miền ty nam AT 11 KNOTS
Trong qu khứ su giờ. ANIMATED a phổ VỆ TINH ẢNH
Cho thấy mức ộ thấp LƯU TRUNG TM Ã TRỞ THÀNH ầy ủ tiếp xc và
Tước BẤT CỨ ỐI LƯU YẾU . VỊ TR ẦU DỰA
ON THE ANIMATION TRÊN VỚI CAO TỰ TIN . Cường ộ ban ầu là
Rt ra từ Dvorak dự ton từ cc cơ quan và phản nh
RAPID suy yếu TREND . TD 29W sẽ làm suy yếu xuống dưới
25 – nt, nơ Ch ngưỡng bởi TÀU 12 AS cao liên tục ỨNG
Wind Shear quốc tiếp tục làm xi mòn hệ thống . Y LÀ CẢNH BO CUỐI CÙNG
Trên hệ thống này CỦA PHẦN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI . THE
Hệ thống sẽ ược chặt chẽ theo dõi cc dấu hiệu ti sinh. TỐI A
YẾU WAVE CAO AT 040000Z IS 18 Bàn chn . THAM KHẢO nhiệt ới
Trầm cảm 30W ( ba mươi ) CẢNH BO ( WTPN32 PGTW ) cho Six – GIỜ
CẬP NHẬT. THAM KHẢO cơn bão nhiệt ới 31W ( THIRTYONE ) CẢNH BO ( WTPN33
PGTW ) CẬP NHẬT CHO Six – GIỜ . / /
NNNN
bo co khc
HÀNG HẢI

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 040.600
CẢNH BO 040.600 .
CẢNH BO GI TRỊ 050.600 .
Cảnh bo ược cập nhật mỗi 6 giờ.
GALE Ch .
TROPICAL STORM 1329 KROSA ( 1329) 1002 HPA
AT 17.7N 111.4E BIỂN NG TY NAM CHUYỂN 12 hải l.
VỊ TR CNG BẰNG .
MAX gi 35 KNOTS gần trung tm .
RADIUS HƠN 30 Gi nt, nơ 120 dặm NORTHWEST hình bn nguyệt và 90
Dặm ghi ở nơi khc .
DỰ BO CHO VỊ TR 041800UTC AT 15.4N 109.5E VỚI 50 dặm RADIUS
HÀNH 70 PHẦN TRM XC SUẤT CIRCLE .
1002 HPA , MAX Gi 35 KNOTS gần trung tm .
DỰ BO CHO VỊ TR 050600UTC AT 13.0N 107.6E VỚI 85 dặm RADIUS
HÀNH 70 PHẦN TRM XC SUẤT CIRCLE .
1006 HPA .
TRỞ THÀNH p thấp nhiệt ới .

Nhật Bản KH TƯỢNG CƠ QUAN . =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 040.600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG KH TƯỢNG DỊCH VỤ CUNG CẤP SAU
CẢNH BO / THNG TIN VỀ BIỂN NG .
CẢNH BO
Nhiệt ới trầm cảm ( TD ) KROSA ( 1329) : NIL .
Gales VỀ eo biển ài Loan .
TM TẮT ( 040600UTC ) VÀ DỰ BO 24 GIỜ
AT 040600UTC , TD KROSA ( 1329) VỚI P LỰC TRUNG 1000
HPA VÀ TỐI A Gi 25 KT ược tập trung TRONG 60 NM HÀNH
111.2E 17.6N và ược dự bo MOVE SW AT Giới thiệu về 14 KT CHO
TỚI 24 GIỜ .
DỰ BO VỊ TR AT 050600UTC : tiêu tan VỀ ẤT .
AN INTENSE Bắc gi mùa hứa hẹn mang ến Gales ẾN
Eo biển ài Loan .
Sưng lên / CAO SEAS YẾU
SEAS 6 M VỀ GALE KHU VỰC CẢNH BO .
Sưng lên NE 3 M VỀ N và cc bộ phận TRUNG TM Biển ng.
Sấm st / thời tiết khắc nghiệt
THƯỜNG nặng có gió th̉i từng cơn (SQ ) Rào ( SH ) và dng
( TS ) trong vòng 30 NM TỪ TRUNG TM KROSA ( 1329) .
Rải rc SQ SH và TS trên biển gần Philippines .
C lập SQ SH và TS VỀ PHẦN MIỀN NAM CỦA NAM
BIỂN NG .
SEA FOG / TẦM NHÌN GIẢM
TẦM NHÌN xuống 500 M TRÊN SQ SH và TS .

END