Nigeria: Passenger boat with 34 aboard sinks near Port Harcourt, 12 drowned, 17 rescued, others missing – Published 300814 1800z (UTC)

Boat capsized off the coast of southeast Nigeria leaving 12 dead (Credit: ynaija.com)

No less than 10 people (G: now 12) have drowned following the capsizing and sinking of a boat carrying 35 passengers. The passenger boat was headed for Port Harcourt when it suffered the mishap which killed 10 people, and 8 persons reportedly missing.

National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) co-ordinator, Onimode Bandele confirmed the incident saying, We can confirm that 10 persons died early today when a Port Harcourt-bound passenger boat sank. Rescue efforts are ongoing and the agency is already working with other bodies and security agencies in the rescue efforts.

Adonye Wilcox, the chairman of Bonny local government council, also confirmed the accident, which he said occurred at 7:45 am on Friday, 29 August. Information available indicates that the boat hit an object on the way and sank, he said. Local divers have rescued 17 persons, including four members of the National Youth Service Corps, while 10 persons died as a result of the accident. Wilcox also added that a search was being conducted for the eight people who are unaccounted for.

Saturday, 30 August, 2014 at 04:42 (04:42 AM) UTC RSOE

Update

news.yahoo.com: “Port Harcourt (Nigeria) (AFP) –

Two more people were confirmed dead on Saturday after an overloaded boat capsized off the coast of southeast Nigeria, taking the death toll to 12.

Twenty-two people were rescued and taken to hospital after the boat went down on Friday as it travelled between Bonny Island and Port Harcourt, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) said.

“From our investigation, the capacity of the boat was 25 but it was carrying 34 people,” said NEMA local coordinator Onimode Bandele, revising downward by one the number of people thought to have been on board.

“We also learnt that on August 28, the same boat hit an object which affected its hull and we are not sure if it was repaired before being used again,” he told AFP.

The boat is thought to have hit an object and overturned early on Friday.

Boat accidents in Nigeria occur frequently and are often caused by overloading, poor vessel maintenance, speeding and poor lighting.”

Atlantic/ US/ Canada: Post-tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 04L: 291500Z nr 45.5N 47.1W, moving NE at about 38.2 knots(NHC) – Updated 291514 2200z (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 04L

……CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC……NHC

CRISTOBAL STILL A STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM ON EASTERN EDGE OF
THE GRAND BANKS – STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO ITS WEST.- CHC

Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night – Dr. Jeff Masters

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

…CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI…480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH…70 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST…AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROW

 

Hurricane Track Information

WOCN31 CWHX 291851 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT CORRECTED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:51 PM ADT FRIDAY
29 AUGUST 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR POST-TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT BY THE C.H.C ON THIS STORM.

THIS BULLETIN CORRECTS THE TIME OF SECTION 1 HEADER WHICH WAS
9:00 AM AND SHOULD BE 3:00 PM.

CRISTOBAL STILL A STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM ON EASTERN EDGE OF
THE GRAND BANKS – STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO ITS WEST.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 46.7 NORTH 46.0 WEST.

ABOUT 520 KILOMETRES EAST OF ST JOHN’S NL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 85 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

CRISTOBAL HAS FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION TO
POST-TROPICAL STATUS. PINPOINTING THE EXACT POINT/TIME THESE TYPES
OF STORMS BECOME ‘POST-TROPICAL’ IS NOT EASILY DEFINED AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IS ON THE ORDER OF 3 HOURS. NONETHELESS, HIGH WINDS
REMAIN AROUND THE STORM AND ARE IMPACTING THE HIBERNIA AREA AT THE
TIME OF THIS BULLETIN. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINE OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS PART OF THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION
THAT CRISTOBAL HAS MERGED WITH.

A. WIND.

GUSTS REACHED 90 KM/H ALONG EXPOSED PARTS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND
NEAR 70 KM/H INLAND. THESE WINDS WERE NOT TECHNICALLY PART OF THE
HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL STORM.

B. RAINFALL.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AVALON ARE NOT PART OF THE REMNANTS
OF CRISTOBAL, BUT INSTEAD ARE FROM THE LARGER LOW THAT THE STORM
MERGED WITH.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MODERATE TO ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME REMNANT SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL AND FROM THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS EXPERIENCED EARLIER.

SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND:

WITH THE PASSAGE OF CRISTOBAL WELL OFFSHORE ITS RAPID FORWARD SPEED
OF TRAVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS MAY HAVE TRIGGERED RAPID
TIDE-LIKE CHANGES IN HARBOUR WATER LEVELS OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THIS WILL BE THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND AREAS MOST PRONE TO THIS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
AVALON TO THE BONAVISTA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORMS THAT HAVE RACED
ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS (MOVING OVER 100 KM/H) IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
WATER LEVELS IN HARBOURS TO RISE AND FALL 2 OR 3 TIMES OVER THE SPAN
OF AN HOUR AND FLUCTUATE BY AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 METRES (6 TO 10 FEET).
THIS IS AN ADVISORY THAT THIS MAY – REPEAT MAY – OCCUR AND INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ON THE WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
PREDICTING THE ACTUAL WATER LEVEL CHANGES FOR VARIOUS HARBOURS IS
VERY DIFFICULT HOWEVER.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF VERY HIGH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GRAND BANKS ON THE BACKSIDE (NORTHWEST) OF CRISTOBAL.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING. WAVES UP TO 8 OR 9 METRES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GRAND
BANKS.

REPEAT – THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM C.H.C. ON THIS STORM.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY/MACKINNON

 

 

_______________________________________________

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

 

Other

Dr. Jeff Masters� Blog (wunderground.com)

The Tropics Go Quiet World-Wide

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on August 29, 2014

Hurricane Cristobal ceased to be at 11 am EDT on Friday, as the storm completed its transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night.

With Cristobal’s transition to an extratropical storm and the demise of the Eastern Pacific’s Tropical Storm Marie earlier today, there are now no named tropical cyclones anywhere in the world–an unusual situation for what is traditionally one of the busiest days of the Northern Hemisphere’s tropical cyclone season. This quiet period appears likely to extend though the weekend, as I don’t expect any new named storms to form anywhere in the world through Sunday.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Hurricane Cristobal’s off the coast of Massachusetts at approximately 11 am EDT on August 28, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

MARITIME

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY /1449

WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…….100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT…….200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N 41.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 0NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT…100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT…200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT…200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z…MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N 47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1623

FZNT01 KWBC 291623
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 29
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 30
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 31

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL NEAR 45.5N 47.1W 980 MB AT 1500
UTC AUG 29 MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT 38 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. WITHIN 100 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO
65 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. ALSO WITHIN 100 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS…140 NM SE QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 35
TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 200 NM NE…270 NM SE…220 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 26 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL NEAR 51.5N 35.0W 976
MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM SE…120 NM SW AND 120 NM
NW QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 TO 33 FT. ALSO WITHIN
200 NM N AND 250 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO
25 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL MERGED WITH A NEW LOW
E OF AREA 63N27W DESCRIBED BELOW.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 60N41W 979 MB NEARLY STATIONARY NEXT 6 HOURS THEN WILL
DRIFT E. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 300 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS…WITHIN
90 NM OF E GREENLAND COAST AND WITHIN 240 NM SW OF A TROUGH FROM
61N47W TO 64N52W TO 67N53W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 23
FT…HIGHEST NEAR 58N44W. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM 54N35W TO
53N47W TO 54N55W TO 62N60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N38W 992 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS AND 60 NM OF THE E GREENLAND COAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 57N E OF
43W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW FORMING E OF AREA
NEAR 63N27W 970 MB. N OF 60N E OF 37W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 51N E OF 40W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N64W 994 MB. OVER WATERS WITHIN 300 NM N
AND S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N53W 985 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM
NE QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ALSO WITHIN 240
NM S AND SW QUADRANTS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
A LINE FROM 50N40W TO 42N70W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL ABOVE FROM 34N
TO 50N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W AND FROM 35N TO 44N BETWEEN 54W AND
66W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT…EXCEPT S OF 43N W OF 50W
12 TO 30 FT…HIGHEST NEAR 39N54W IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL
CRISTOBAL ABOVE…FROM 43N TO 55N E OF 50W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEW LOW E OF AREA 63N27W.

.LOW 44N54W 996 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. WITHIN 420 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N44W 1010 MB. FROM 37N TO 43N BETWEEN
45W AND 58W AREA OF N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N35W 1016 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.

.LOW 37N39W 1010 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 57N TO 63N W OF 59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 54N TO 59N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N67W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N52W 1027 MB.

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 29.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 30.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN AUG 31.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF 15N78W
AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 15N80W ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE AND
UPPER LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 18N81W TO 13N72W
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N86W TO 12N74W
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO 36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 88W
AND 91W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
METAREA IV

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http://www.passageweather.com/maps/natlantic/mappage.htm
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Europe: Severe weather inc tornadoes forecast for E France and S Germany (Estofex) – Published 250814 2215z (GMT/UTC)

European forecaster Estofex issues level 2 Storm Forecast for E France and S Germany…..

Storm Forecast

Forecast provided by ESTOFEX

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 26 Aug 2014 06:00 to Wed 27 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 25 Aug 2014 21:17
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 2 was issued for E France and S Germany mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for NE/E France, Belgium, Luxembourg, S-central Germany and W Czech mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for S UK for a chance of tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of the North Sea and Baltic Sea for spout-type tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

… SE UK, NE / E France, SW / central Germany …

A dissipating low pressure system over the British Isles which continues eastwards advects warm and unstable air into W / central Europe. A few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE are forecast consistently in the warm sector by the past runs of GFS and ECMWF, at least partly overlapping with 15 – 25 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear. T/Td is forecast around 20/16 °C for SW Germany which leads to low LCL heights. Convection should fire up in the late morning / early afternoon hours even though there is some subsidence over the central parts of Germany from the upper ridge. Combined with enhanced LL shear and SRH1, this may allow a few tornadoes. Further north, LL shear is weaker but the background wind field should be intense enough to support isolated severe wind gusts mainly from downward transfer of momentum. Local heavy precipitation is possible but fast storm motion should preclude a risk of flooding in most cases.

Over UK, there is very weak LL shear forecast in the afternoon hours but a weak background flow should support some spout-type tornadoes.

… N Germany, Denmark, N Poland, S Scandinavia and Baltic Sea region…

Sufficient buoyancy and weak background winds enhance the chance for long-lasting convergent flow in the vicinity of convective storms and may lead to funnels which could end up in spout-type tornadoes. The greatest chance for landspouts / waterspouts exists around Denmark and N Poland. Further north, deep layer shear is also quite weak but the stronger background flow will likely disturb the formation of funnels / tornadoes.

Some regions with locally enhanced LL shear exist over Finland but overall instability is likely too low to support a tornado threat covered by a LVL1.

… NW Italy and Mediterranean Sea…

A plume of unstable air is advected from the Balearic Islands towards Italy. It will likely remain strongly capped but in case of convective initiation, isolated storms may profit from 20 – 25 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear and could develop mesocyclones. Overall threat is likely too marginal for a threat level as the capping inversion is likely too strong for storm development.

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific: Tropical Depression Karina 11E: 252100Z near 17.2N 127.6W, moving E at about 5.2 knots(NHC) – Updated 250814 2102z (UTC)

Tropical Depression KARINA 11E

…KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION……NHC

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 252036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

…KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.2N 127.6W
ABOUT 1215 MI…1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. KARINA
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1114.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 251600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 051
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 17.2N 128.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 128.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 16.8N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 16.4N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 15.7N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 127.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 985 NM
WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Other

Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1433

WTPZ21 KNHC 252035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 127.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 251730
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 51N170E 1008 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN
179W AND 165E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N174W 1008 MB. FROM 48N TO 53N BETWEEN
165W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N167W 1007 MB. FROM 49N TO 54N BETWEEN
151W AND 174W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW W OF AREA 44N155E 1003 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FROM 36N TO 43N
BETWEEN 160E AND 165E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 46N157E 996 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 720 NM SE AND 540 NE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N158E 995 MB. FROM 38N TO 49N BETWEEN
172E AND 164E…AND OVER FORECAST WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM
48N160E TO 52N170E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N162E 992 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 300 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO 50N W OF 178E…AND N OF 50N W OF 171E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 59N156W 1000 MB MOVING E 15 KT. FROM 49N TO 60N BETWEEN
145W AND 172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N144W 1007 MB. FROM 52N TO 58N BETWEEN
140W AND 156W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N142W 1014 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 46N154W 1020 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. FROM 41N TO 46N BETWEEN
152W AND 158W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N142W 1017 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N130W 1017 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 38N TO 50N BETWEEN 124W AND 136W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 39N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 130W AND 145W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 135W AND 142W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 51N
BETWEEN 134W AND 139W…AND FROM 41N TO 52N BETWEEN 160E AND
178W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 120 NM OF 48N138W…FROM 49N
TO 54N BETWEEN 169W AND 175E…AND FROM 39N TO 49N W OF 172E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 172W AND
168E…AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 48N162E.

.HIGH 42N144W 1028 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N143W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N141W 1023 MB.

.HIGH 44N173W 1029 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N164W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N162W 1029 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 37N171W 1026 MB.

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED AUG 27.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 17.9N 114.8W 932 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 25
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…240 NM NE QUADRANT AND 270 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT…390 NM SE
QUADRANT…300 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 44 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W 120W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER N OF 07N BETWEEN 105W AND
120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 20.1N 118.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE…150 NM SW QUADRANT AND 160 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
480 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 37 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 22.2N 123.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…170 NM SE QUADRANT…110 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 540 NM FROM CENTER WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIE NEAR 24.5N 128.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL MARIE NEAR 28.0N 132.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 30.5N
133.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 17.1N 128.0W 1004 MB AT 1500
UTC AUG 25 MOVING ELSE OR 110 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W
AND 132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 16.4N
126.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 15.7N
125.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 25N130W 1004 MB…REMNANT OF LOWELL. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
22N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 23N135W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N
W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N138W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 17N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC MON AUG 25…

.HURRICANE MARIE…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE
AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA….SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 09N100W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS
PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 90W AND
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 25 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 26 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 14N142W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 10N175W 1008 MB MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 11N179W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N142W TO 11N147W TO 11N156W AND ALSO FROM
09N161W TO 09N169W TO 10N175W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 147W AND W OF
169W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH.

.ITCZ FROM 08N179W TO 06N175E TO 08N166E TO 06N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM OF ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 25 Aug 2014 1717z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3th

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico: Hurricane MARIE 13E CAT4: 251600Z near 18.0N 115.0W, moving NW at 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 250814 1637z (UTC)

Hurricane Marie 13E

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND…
…LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

000

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 251433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

…EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND…
…LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.9N 114.8W
ABOUT 255 MI…415 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 470 MI…755 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…932 MB…27.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB…27.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO…THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA…AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TODAY…AND WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS…AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1314.gif

 

 

WTPN33 PHNC 251600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 17.6N 114.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 114.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 18.9N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 20.1N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 21.2N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 22.2N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 24.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 28.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 30.5N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 115.0W.
HURRICANE 13E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND
261600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1433

WTPZ23 KNHC 251433
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT…….100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…….240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 390SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT…240NE 240SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT…210NE 210SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…190NE 190SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 251130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 50N167E 1006 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N AND 420 NM
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N177W 1011 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW AND 360
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N171W 1014 MB. FROM 49N TO 52N BETWEEN
157W AND 176W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA NEAR 46N157E 998 MB. WITHIN 600
NM SE AND E QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N160E 993 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 420 NM NE AND 660 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 60N165W 1000 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM SW AND 540
NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.FROM 37N TO 52N BETWEEN 124W AND 136W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 126W AND 142W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 145W AND 131W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 150W AND 133W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

.LOW 45N157W 1020 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF
LOW…FROM 48N TO 52N BETWEEN 133W AND 141W…AND WITHIN 180 NM
NW OF A LINE FROM 33N174E TO 38N180W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N144W 1017 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N133W 1015 MB. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 47N TO 57N
BETWEEN 134W AND 146W AND FROM 43N TO 51N BETWEEN 163E AND 173E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 52N W OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 161E AND
179E.

.HIGH 42N144W 1029 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 NOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N142W 1024 MB.

.HIGH 44N176E 1030 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N168W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N162W 1029 MB.

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 27.

...HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 17.3N 113.9W 932 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 25
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…270 NM SE QUADRANT AND 240 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT…390 NM SE QUADRANT 300
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 48 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E AND 510 NM S QUADRANTS…AND 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX
OF SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 19.6N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE…220 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 510 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM E AND 540 NM S
QUADRANTS…AND 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 125W…
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W
AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING SW AND
NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 22.0N 121.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE…120 NM SW QUADRANT…150 NM NW.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 360 NM SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF
CENTER… EXCEPT 240 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 130W…INCLUDING THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N…AND FROM 05N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND
125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIE NEAR 24.7N 126.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 27.8N
130.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 30.2N
132.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.2N 128.4W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
25 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT
90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM QUADRANT. SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 90 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N
TO 20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 17.1N 127.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER…ELSEWHERE AND REMAINDER OF AREA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 16.7N
127.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 22N
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 15.6N
124.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT. WITHIN 150 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
07N TO 18N W OF 123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 26N130W 1004 MB…REMNANT OF LOWELL. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N133W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N
W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 28N137W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 18N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC MON AUG 25…

.HURRICANE MARIE…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
200 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 360 NM SE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA….NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 08N103W TO
10N103W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 88W.

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 25 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 26 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 27 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 14N143W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N143W TO 11N149W TO 11N158W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
150W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 07N E OF
160W.

.ITCZ FROM 10N167W TO 08N177W TO 10N172E TO 07N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 01N W OF 160W.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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East Pacific/Mexico: Hurricane LOWELL 12E: 211500Z near 20.0N 122.1W , moving NW at 3 knots(NHC) – Updated 210814 1633z (UTC)

Hurricane LOWELL 12E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT….NHC

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

…LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.0N 122.1W
ABOUT 810 MI…1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY…
BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES…295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB…29.00 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1214.gif

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 211600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 19.7N 122.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 122.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 20.7N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 21.7N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 22.8N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 23.8N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 25.5N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 27.3N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 28.5N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 122.3W.
HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM WEST OF SOCORRO
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

Other

EASTERN PACIFIC – WestPacWx
Large Lowell‘s circulation also has a large center as shown by the satellite image.No significant changes to previous days’ expectations of a steering interaction between Lowell and smaller Karina.

An increase in rainfall is expected in Arizona tomorrow; that is primarily due to the upper low which has been over SoCal, though it could tap a bit of Lowell’s moisture.

Speaking of wiggy model runs, there have been some showing the system that was near Panama, and is likely to eventually become a tropical storm, maintaining some strength all the way up to a position not far off the coast of northern California.  That’s a long way off and we can cross that bridge if we come to it …

(MORE: Glossary of Tropical Terms | New NHC Storm Surge Maps)

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

 

 

 METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431 

WTPZ22 KNHC 211431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT……. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…….160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 211149 CCA
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII…CORRECTION PART 3
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 23.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 40N160E 1004 MB MOVING E 25 KT. WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N168E 1002 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N178E 999 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 43N W OF 178W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N169W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 660
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 51N135W 1013 MB MOVING SE 25 KT. WITHIN 360 NM W QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 38N167W 1013 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N162W 1014 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 53N174E 1002 MB MOVING SE 05 KT. WITHIN 480 NM N AND 600 NM
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N176E 1005 MB. BETWEEN 480 NM AND 660 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N175W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM OF LOW
EXCEPT WITHIN 360 NM N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.

.FROM 36N TO 42N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 35N TO 42N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 43N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 133W AND 129W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 128W AND 141W NE WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 127W AND 148W E TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 47N
BETWEEN 161W AND 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
52N156W TO 42N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 38N TO 48N BETWEEN 174W AND
152W.

.HIGH 40N143W 1027 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N146W 1031 MB.

.HIGH 51N152W 1025 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 53N143W 1028 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 62N167W 1023 MB MOVING N 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 64N166W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 63N173W 1022 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 48N140W 1029 MB.

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT AUG 23.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.6N 136.2W 1001 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
21 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 40 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM
S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.1N 135.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM
OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 240 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 21N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 16.5N 133.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…30 NM NW QUADRANT AND
50 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 130W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 18.5N 130.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 22.5N
128.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 28.5N
131.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 19.7N 121.9W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
21 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 280 NM W SEMICIRCLE…300 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 390 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM N AND 360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 26N BETWEEN 111W AND
130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 21.3N 123.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 420 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N
TO 28N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 23.4N 126.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240
NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF
CENTER…EXCEPT 360 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 30N BETWEEN 112W AND 130W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL LOWELL NEAR 25.3N 129.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 27.0N
131.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 28.3N
134.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 1007 MB. FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W
AND 93W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
12N98W 1006 MB. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N103W 1003 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 104W
AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.S OF 03S W OF 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED
SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N W OF 130W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC THU AUG 21…

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM S OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL….NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE…240 NM SE AND 300 NM SW QUADRANTS.

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 1007 MB…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90
NM OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W TO
09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND
60 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 110W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI…CORRECTION
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 21 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 22 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 23 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 07N161W 1011 MB MOVING NW SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 06N170E TO
05N171W TO LOW NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS
WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW AND TROUGH…AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
159W AND 163W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 06N169W TO
12N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 04N170W TO 11N166W.

.LOW 14N146W 1010 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
09N159W NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LOW AND TROUGH…AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 156W AND 159W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 13N147W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM 08N156W TO
11N152W TO LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 13N148W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM 08N160W TO
LOW.

.WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N179E TO 28N174E TO 27N169E NEARLY
STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N178E TO 28N174E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 17N154W TO 20N154W TO 21N153W MOVING W 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 28N162E 1015 MB MOVING SE SLOWLY. RIDGE FROM 29N160E TO
HIGH TO 25N174E TO 30N165W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 26N165W 1014 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 12N TO 17N E OF 149W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS SUBSIDED TO 8 FT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 25N E OF 145W.

.OTHERWISE SEAS 8 FT OR LESS REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF A LINE FROM 27N160E TO 21N166E…S
OF 13N BETWEEN 166E AND 172E…AND FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 172E
AND 179E.

$$

.HONOLULU HI.=

 

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

2 Lancaster Bombers Fly Together for First Time in 50 Years

RAF Families Federation

At RAF Conings2 Lancaster Bombers Fly Together for First Time in 50 Years.by in Lincolnshire two Lancaster Bombers took to the skies yesterday for the first formation flight of this aircraft type since the 1960s.  The Lancaster “Thumper”, which is… More information. If you are using a MOBILE DEVICE please use this link

View original post

Pilot lost control after artificial arm detached

Wales Air Forum

A Flybe pilot lost control of an aircraft after his artificial arm became detached as he was coming in to land, according to an accident report.

The flight from Birmingham, with 47 passengers on board, was approaching Belfast City airport in gutsy conditions on February 12.

It landed heavily but no-one was hurt and the Dash 8 was not damaged.

The pilot said he would be more cautious in future about checking his attachment, according to the Air Accidents Investigation Branch report.

Flybe said the senior captain was one of its “most experienced and trusted pilots”, and the safety of passengers and crew had not been compromised in any way.

Shortly before beginning to land the aircraft, the 46-year-old had checked that his prosthetic lower left arm was securely attached to the clamp that he used to fly the aircraft, with the latching…

View original post 385 more words

Tropical Atlantic May Try to Come Alive Next Week

TheSurvivalPlaceBlog

By By Kristina Pydynowski

While a robust tropical wave is moving through the Atlantic, the window for tropical development will not open until next week.

Several tropical waves are roaming the Atlantic Ocean, but none are projected to develop into the next tropical depression of the season.

This includes a robust tropical wave that raised concerns for development earlier in the week.

“A surface low that was accompanying this tropical wave has fallen apart, diminishing the chance for tropical development,” stated AccuWeather.com Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski.

The combination of dry, dusty air, disruptive wind shear and lower-than-normal sea surface temperatures are putting a lid on development in the Atlantic, added Kottlowski. When strong enough, wind shear (a belt of strong winds above the surface) can shred apart tropical systems.

Regardless of development prospects, the tropical wave will still bring a period of increased gusty showers and thunderstorms that threaten…

View original post 388 more words

UK: RNLI lifeguards at Polzeath rescued 32 people last night after they extended their patrol hours – Published 120814 1752z (GMT/UTC)

Lifeguards carry out rescues at Polzeath

RNLI Lifeguards carry out rescues at Polzeath (Credit: RNLI)

RNLI lifeguards at Polzeath rescued 32 people last night after they extended their patrol hours.

With a large number of people in the water and difficult conditions on the high spring tide, the lifeguard team stayed on past their normal finishing time of 6pm to ensure everybody was safe.

The lifeguard team, made up of Ben Miskowicz, Chris Rowlands, Phil Bartlett, Scott Temple, Christian Parker and Craig O’Rourke, were patrolling the beach yesterday (Monday 11 August) and when 6pm approached they realised the conditions were too dangerous to finish their lifeguard duties.

The team stayed on and rescued a total of 32 people, including seven swimmers and 25 bodyboarders, many of them children. They eventually packed down the beach at 7.30pm, an hour and a half after their normal operational finishing time.

Senior lifeguard Ben Miskowicz explains: ‘The conditions at Polzeath this week are particularly challenging, we have a high tide, strong onshore winds and large swell. The winter storms have changed the typography of Polzeath and now at high tide we have some rip currents at both the northern and southern end of the beach. The northern rip is particularly prominent at high tide at the moment and between 6pm and 7.15pm last night the lifeguards assisted 32 people who’d fallen off the bank of sand and straight into the path of the rip current.

‘I was at the cliff top unit at the south end of the beach and Chris was at the northern end while Craig, Phil and Christian were in the water on rescue boards. As we had a higher view we were able to spot casualties and guide the lifeguards in the water to them. I could see how strong the rip was, when the lifeguards stopped paddling on the rescue board they were pulled away very quickly, it was incredibly strong.’

Today is the highest tide of the year, with high tide at Polzeath at 7.15pm, so lifeguards are urging people to take extra care in the conditions.

Chris Wafer, RNLI lifeguard supervisor, said: ‘The lifeguard team did a fantastic job last night in challenging conditions and received praise from many members of the public for their efforts in keeping people safe.

‘We’ve seen strong onshore winds and a big swell combined with spring tides in recent days which have created these difficult conditions. With another large tide tonight it’s possible the lifeguard team may stay on later again to ensure everybody is safe. If you are heading to the beach please speak to the lifeguards to find out the hazards and take heed of their advice.’

To help keep children safe in the sea this summer, the RNLI has partnered with the ASA to offer Swim Safe. Providing free open-water swimming improver lessons to children aged between 7-14, the programme is running at Bude throughout the summer. For more information go to http://www.swimming.org/go/parents/swim-safe/

– RNLI

  • Date:
    12/08/2014
  • Author: Emma Haines

The RNLI added in a Facebook post:

“32 people were rescued at Polzeath beach in Cornwall last night – after lifeguards extended their patrol hours. With their 6pm finish time approaching, and a large number of people still in the water and a high spring tide, the team realised the conditions were too dangerous for them to leave their post. When people began to get caught in the path of a rip current, the lifeguards were able to leap into action. This week sees some of the highest tides of the year, so if you’re visiting the coast, remember to ‪#‎RespectTheWater‬ and visit a lifeguarded beach where possible. ”

Key facts about the RNLI

The Royal National Lifeboat Institution is the charity that saves lives at sea. Our volunteers provide a 24-hour search and rescue service in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland from 236 lifeboat stations, including four along the River Thames and inland lifeboat stations at Loch Ness, Lough Derg, Enniskillen and Lough Ree. Additionally the RNLI has more than 1,000 lifeguards on over 180 beaches around the UK and operates a specialist flood rescue team, which can respond anywhere across the UK and Ireland when inland flooding puts lives at risk.

The RNLI relies on public donations and legacies to maintain its rescue service. As a charity it is separate from, but works alongside, government-controlled and funded coastguard services. Since the RNLI was founded in 1824 our lifeboat crews and lifeguards have saved at least 140,000 lives. Volunteers make up 95% of the charity, including 4,600 volunteer lifeboat crew members and 3,000 volunteer shore crew. Additionally, tens of thousands of other dedicated volunteers raise funds and awareness, give safety advice, and help in our museums, shops and offices.

Learn more about the RNLI

For more information please visit the RNLI website or Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. News releases, videos and photos are available on the News Centre.

Contacting the RNLI – public enquiries

Members of the public may contact the RNLI on 0300 300 9990 or by email.

 

The RNLI is a charity registered in England and Wales (209603) and Scotland (SC037736). Charity number CHY 2678 in the Republic of Ireland

 

An Open Letter to Robert Gates: The Boy Scouts Need to Accept Gay Adults

The fight against homophobia continues……..

Related:

First openly gay Eagle Scout’s future unclear

With a policy that bans gay adults, Pascal Tessier’s future with the Boy Scouts is anything but certain as he turns 18.

msnbc originals (Aug/05/14)

Exclusive video: http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/first-openly-gay-eagle-scout-ages-out-of-boy-scouts-315433539681?cid=sm_m_main_1_20140806_29239386

Gay Eagle Scout Shares His Story

Former Eagle Scout Says New Gay Policy Doesn’t Go Far Enough

Scouts For Equality: Eagle Scout With Lesbian Parents Pushes Boy Scouts To Drop Ban on Gay Members

 

 

Scouts for Equality

Scouts for Equality

Goaty’s News items about Gay Scouts

TIME

I was just 4 years old when I went on my first camping trip with my older brother and his Cub Scouts pack. After that, I was hooked.

Scouting has been a constant part of my life since then. The Boy Scouts taught me everything from how to survive in the woods to the morals and values that shaped the person I am today. For that, and for the good times and friends I made through Scouting, I will always be grateful.

But today I have to say “goodbye.”

Today is my 18th birthday, a milestone on my path to becoming an adult and the day I am no longer eligible to be a Boy Scout because I am gay. Despite the Boy Scouts’ historic decision last year to open its ranks to gay youth, the Scouts still ban gay adults. And as of today, that means me.

In his…

View original post 377 more words

Japan/ Russia: Severe Tropical Storm HALONG 11W 101800Z nr 41.2N 137.3E, moving N at 45km/h(25kt)(JMA) 2 Dead, 1.6 million displaced (WestPacWx) – Updated 100814 2130z (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm 1411 /11W HALONG

Japan: 2 Dead, 1.6 million displaced (WestPacWx)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Japan Meteorological agency (RSMC Tokyo is the lead agency in this area)

Click map for source

Click map for source

Japan Radar

Japan Radar and Nowcasts (Precipitation, Thunder, Tornadoes) CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE AND ANIMATION – JMA

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

Click on image for source

STS 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 10 August 2014

<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N41°10′(41.2°)
E137°20′(137.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE560km(300NM)
NW390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°00′(44.0°)
E137°05′(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 966hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N46°50′(46.8°)
E136°40′(136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
 Unit:

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

 

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Aug, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HALONG (11W) currently located near 34.1 N 134.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Click image for source (tropicalstormrisk.com)

STS Halong Leaves 2 Dead and over a million displaced (Sunday Afternoon Update)

Halong Leaves Japan

Severe Tropical Storm Halong tore across Western Japan Sunday Afternoon bringing torrential rain and gale force winds. Now the storm is moving out over the sea of Japan but outer rain bands will continue to impact Japan through Monday.

Two deaths have now been a direct result of the storm, over 1.6 million people have been displaced and millions of dollars in damages have occurred due to flooding.

NHK is reporting a women died due to flood waters in the Takamatsu River Sunday. Saturday morning a 78 year old man was swept away in rising flood waters in Iwate Prefecture.

Furthermore this weekend is the Obon weekend in Japan where millions of people are traveling to visit the graves of ancestors.  With over 400 flights cancelled and Shinkansen lines shut down many of those people are stuck at airports and stations waiting for service to resume.

Typhoon Broadcast Cut Short For Earthquake Broadcast

To cap things off a 6.1M earthquake sent a scare through residents of northern Japan around 1PM JST. The image to the right shows typhoon warnings being aired on NHK with the earthquake warning over laid.

The disaster unfolding across Japan should come as no surprised though, this storm has been slowly working its way north towards Japan for nearly a week now. Following Tropical Storm Nakri which brough torrential rainfall and then a stationary front that lingered over Japan this week the grounds of Shikoku, Kyushu and Western Honshu were already saturated and unable to bring in any more rainfall.

Now in the past 48hrs along Typhoon Nakri has dumped well over 1,000mm in parts of Kochi Prefecture on Shikoku. While other parts of western Japan have seen above 800mm in total. You can find this information at this link. 

For only the second time in 2014 JMA has issued an emergency warning. It was issued in Mie Prefecture for ground loosening rains. This is the highest level on JMAs warning scale and indicates a very serious threat to the loss of life.

In Shimamoto near where Videographer and Westpacwx Team Member James Reynolds is there has been reports of damage to homes after rivers in the Shimamoto river swelled when Halong came ashore. You can follow his twitter account as he documents the storm there below.

..

 

..

Western Pacific Weather first reported on this threat a week ago after the storm passed Guam and started tracked towards Japan.

Halong will continue to track over the Sea of Japan Sunday Night through Monday pulling in moisture from the south and eventually getting sheared to the east. What this means in short is heavy rainfall can be expected across Central and Northern Japan to start off the work week.

Over 100mm even in to the Tokyo area is possible as well. Around noon on Sunday Tornado Advisories were issued in the Tokyo Metro area due to strong cells rolling through the city.

For the most part the weather in Tokyo should not be to severe but it will be enough to cause delays on the roads and even localized flooding.

 

Halong Information

COULD RUSSIA GET HIT BY A TYPHOON OR A TS?

The bigger question is could the Russian Far East get impacted by Tropical Storm Strength winds, that seems like a more likely yes, but will Halong maintain its tropical characteristics farther to the north is unlikely. We will continue to track the progression of the storm but even Vladivostok could be looking at rough conditions by Monday and Tuesday of this coming week.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP22 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 975 HPA
AT 41.2N 137.3E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 44.0N 137.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
966 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 46.8N 136.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 101800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 978 HPA
AT 54N 168E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 168E TO 56N 173E 55N 179E.
WARM FRONT FROM 55N 179E TO 54N 180E 52N 177W 48N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 55N 179E TO 50N 175E 46N 170E 43N 165E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 43N 165E TO 41N 159E 40N 153E 40N 146E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 41N 180E 40N 170E 38N 153E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 11N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 33N 116E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 61N 142E SSE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 46N 153E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 36N 160E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 138E TO 43N 141E 41N 143E 40N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 135E TO 36N 131E 34N 125E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1413 GENEVIEVE (1413) 965 HPA AT 31.5N 172.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 975 HPA AT 41.2N 137.3E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Signpost to UK SEVERE WEATHER, FLOOD WARNINGS and TORRO TORNADO WATCH – Updated 09 Aug 2014 2325z (GMT/UTC)

EX-Hurricane Bertha

TORRO TORNADO WATCH for much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England, Wales

and the Channel Islands.

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

Valid from 03:00 until 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 22:45GMT on Saturday 9th August 2014

Valid from/until: 03:00- 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England

Wales

Channel Islands

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

DISCUSSION

Deepening Atlantic storm with tropical airmass within its warm sector will cross the watch area during Sunday. Although the exact track is still somewhat uncertain, there are indications from several models that a dual-centred system will evolve. The first centre should move into Wales later tonight, with the main centre crossing SW England and heading NE to Lincs by afternoon, whilst the first centre tends to fill or is consumed by the second.

Strong lifting from a sharpening upper trough should steepen lapse rates enough for embedded convection to develop close to and to the south of both centres of low pressure, with wind shear favourable for severe weather, especially to the south and east of the second, deeper, low pressure area.

A mass of heavy rain is already moving in, and through the latter part of the night, embedded convection may affect parts of Wales and SW England, as the low pressure centre(s) move in. During Sunday morning, as the sharpening upper trough digs into the moist sector, it is possible that a squall line may develop across southern England/E Anglia. Additionally, ahead of the low pressure area moving from SW England to Lincs, convection may develop in the moist sector.

In each of these areas, low-level and deep layer wind shear appears sufficient for severe thunderstorms with strong winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The main caveat with this watch is that the maritime nature of the airmass would typically suggest fairly meagre lapse rates – however, global and mesoscale models indication fairly decent instability associated with this system (~1000J/Kg CAPE). If instability and shear can combine favourably, a strong tornado is possible.

The area from SW England to Lincs, and points south-east of there appear to have a higher risk of severe weather than elsewhere in the watch area. Please note this forecast has been issued early due to the fact the situation will not be monitored by TORRO overnight.

Forecaster: RPK

Torro Tornado Watch 2014/008 (Image: TORRO)

also UK SEVERE WEATHER & FLOOD WARNINGS

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2Ne

 

UK: Ex Bertha bringing wet and windy weather on Sunday, says Met Office – Published 080814 1719z (GMT)

#UK #SEVERE #WEATHER, #FLOOD WARNINGS and #TORRO #TORNADO WATCH. #Bertha #UKstorm #FloodAware #Wx #News… http://t.co/fIcYIK4jr5

— Goaty’s News (UK) (@Goatys_News) August 9, 2014

8 August 2014 – The remnants of Hurricane Bertha will continue to track towards the UK during the next few days.

“The Met Office has been assessing the likelihood of the UK seeing any effects from Bertha by using our own forecast models alongside models from other world-leading forecast centres.

At the moment southern parts of the UK look as though they are most at risk during Sunday, followed by areas of northeast Scotland on Monday. However, there is also the possibility that the depression could move across northern France as a weak feature.

Bertha storm tracks Possible storm tracks for ex Bertha on Sunday   Bertha Impacts Likely impacts from ex Bertha on Sunday

The transition of Bertha from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast but there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK on Sunday, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity.

Chief Meteorologist, Paul Gundersen, said: “There is still some uncertainty surrounding this weekend’s weather, with the potential for heavy rainfall, strong coastal winds and large waves on Sunday. However, there is still a chance that the system may pass to the south of the country giving the UK a brighter day.

“Rain and strong winds may well bring disruption, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the potential for more than 50 mm of rain and coastal gusts of over 60 mph. People should stay up to date with the latest Met Office warnings.”

Craig Woolhouse, Environment Agency Flood Risk Manager, said: “Heavy rain on Sunday may lead to localised surface water flooding in some parts of England and Wales. On Sunday and Monday a combination of high spring tides and strong westerly winds bring a risk of large waves and spray and possible flooding to the south west coast of England and along the Severn Estuary. However, the forecast remains uncertain so we advise people to regularly check the flood risk situation over the next few days.

“If you’re travelling to or from holiday then check your flood risk before setting off and don’t drive through flood waters.

“The Environment Agency is continuing to monitor the situation closely along with the Met Office and local authorities. People can sign up to receive free flood warnings, check their flood risk and keep up to date with the latest situation on the GOV.UK website to  check if you are at risk of flooding or follow @EnvAgency and #floodaware on Twitter for the latest flood updates.”

Jeremy Parr, Head of Flood Risk Management, Natural Resources Wales, said: “Our officers will be monitoring forecasts closely over the weekend as the situation in Wales becomes clearer but in the meantime we are advising people to remain alert.

“We are likely to see some very heavy rain on Sunday into Monday, and combined with strong winds and high spring tides, conditions along the coast could be dangerous.  As the forecast remains unsettled, we are advising people to keep an eye on weather forecasts and check the latest flood alerts on our website.”

Ross Macloed,  RNLI Coastal Safety Manager, said: “Extreme wave heights combined with high tides can make some normal coastal activities we take for granted significantly more risky; the force of surging water or breaking waves can easily knock you over and quickly drag you out of your depth and once in the water it can be difficult to get out. As little as one cubic metre of water weighs a tonne and shows that you should never underestimate how powerful the sea can be.

“If you are planning a coastal activity, our advice is to respect the water, and watch the shore from a safe distance and assess the conditions; think about the risk before deciding if  you need to go closer.”

Met Office records show that there are similar examples of intense low pressure systems occurring in August, for example, the 24 August 2005 where an active storm sat off the northwest coast of Scotland bringing strong winds and heavy rain. On the 30 August 1992 a depression swung up from the southwest across the UK giving a wet and windy Bank Holiday weekend.

We will be keeping an eye on the latest outlook for the weather over the next few days and the progress of ex Bertha to keep everyone up to date with the latest information.

Last updated: 8 August 2014″ –  Met Office

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Central Pacific/ HAWAII: Tropical Storm ISELLE 09E 081000Z near 19.0N 155.3W, moving W at 09 knots. 43nm from Hilo (JTWC) – Updated 080814 1100z (UTC)

Tropical Storm ISELLE 09E

…ISELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE BIG ISLAND…NWS CHC

TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 09E

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI…
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center

5 Day Track for ISELLE

WTPA33 PHFO 080847
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014

…ISELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE BIG ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…19.0N 155.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI…
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 155.1 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY…WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB…29.39 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE BIG
ISLAND…AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT…AND FOR OAHU ON
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAUAI COUNTY
LATER FRIDAY.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISELLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AS WELL AS
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE IS PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING SURF…MAINLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND. THIS DAMAGING SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU…1 TO 2 FT

SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES…100 AM HST AND 300 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE LOCAL STATEMENT

WFO Honolulu

Hawaii RSS FeedsHI RSS Feeds

At 11:00 PM HST, the center of
Tropical Storm Iselle
was located at 19.0N 155.1W.
50 miles S of Hilo
75 miles SE of Kailua-Kona
40 miles E of South Point
155 miles SSE of Kahului
200 miles SE of Kaunakakai
170 miles SE of Lanai City
240 miles SE of Honolulu
335 miles SE of Lihue
380 miles ESE of Niihau
At 11:00 PM HST, the center of
Hurricane Julio
was located at 17.8N 140.4W.
965 miles E of Hilo
1030 miles E of Kailua-Kona
1005 miles E of South Point
1065 miles ESE of Kahului
1115 miles ESE of Kaunakakai
1095 miles ESE of Lanai City
1160 miles ESE of Honolulu
1255 miles ESE of Lihue
1310 miles ESE of Niihau
1990 miles SW of Las Vegas NV

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)(US Military)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0914.gif

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 081000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 09E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
080600Z — NEAR 18.9N 154.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 154.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 19.2N 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 19.8N 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 20.2N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 20.8N 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 22.2N 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 24.0N 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 25.7N 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 155.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E
(JULIO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Hawaii Red Cross

Honolulu, Hawaii

Disaster Preparedness

“In Hawaii due to our isolation, we encourage all families to be prepared for 7 days instead of 72 hours. It will take time following a disaster for a logistics bridge to be built to Hawaii if our harbors and airports are affected by a major disaster and we may be relying on our own resources longer than other places within the United States. The following information is provided to help you better develop your own disaster plan and improve your family, business and community’s resiliency.” – Hawaii Red Cross

redcross.org/hawaii

http://www.redcross.org/find-help

MARITIME/SHIPPING

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE LOCAL STATEMENT

 

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0850

WTPA24 PHFO 080850 RRB
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 159.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.2N 164.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 140.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

..
FORECASTER POWELL

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0530

FZPN02 KWBC 080530
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI AUG 08 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 10.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 59N174W 985 MB MOVING SE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM N AND 360 NM
SW QUADRANTS AND 300 NM SE OF FRONT FROM 56N153W TO 50N163W TO
46N174W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300
NM N QUADRANT AND 360 NM SE OF FRONT AND FROM 52N TO 58N W OF
168W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N164W 989 MB. BETWEEN 300 NM AND 660 NM
W QUADRANT AND BETWEEN 300 NM AND 720 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N157W 993 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S AND 600 NM
W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 60N148W TO 52N148W TO
42N164W. WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO
15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 56N150W 990 MB. WITHIN 420 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 360 NM SE OF FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 56N140W TO
47N147W TO 39N156W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 34N TO 44N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 45N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 33N TO 44N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 55N167E 997 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 42N166E TO 49N174E TO 56N175E AREA OF W
TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 179W AND 164E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS NW AND W OF A LINE FROM 38N160E TO 46N161W TO 63N166W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 49N BETWEEN 149W AND
160W AND W OF A LINE FROM 39N164E TO 50N168E TO 58N178E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 57N BETWEEN 137W AND
146W AND W OF A LINE FROM 40N164E TO 44N172E TO 57N177E.

.HIGH 35N141W 1026 MB MOVING E 05 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N138W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 46N132W 1024 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 38N164W 1025 MB MOVING S 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N163W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 43N144W 1026 MB MOVING E 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 38N172E 1026 MB MOVING NW 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N167E 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N172E 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI AUG 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT AUG 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN AUG 10.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 17.4N 139.1W 966 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 08
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT
GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 250 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO
36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N AND 180 S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 FT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N
TO 24N W OF 133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 18.5N 144.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. 12 FT SEAS W OF AREA. FROM
16N TO 24N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 20.6N 149.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. CONDITIONS
W OF AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 22.9N 154.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 24.2N 159.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 25.0N 163.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC FRI AUG 8…

.HURRICANE JULIO…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 100 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO
19N W OF 136W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 10N92W. ITCZ FROM 12N120W TO
06N134W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N
TO 09N E OF 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 124W
AND 132W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 08 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 09 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 10 2014.

.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ISELLE NEAR 19.0N 153.1W MOVING W 13 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM NE…90 NM SE…20 NM SW…120 NM NW QUADRANTS.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM ELSEWHERE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ISELLE NEAR 19.8N 158.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE…10 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM
S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM ELSEWHERE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE NEAR 20.6N 163.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 25 NM ELSEWHERE. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE NEAR 21.6N 167.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ISELLE NEAR 23.5N
173.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ISELLE NEAR 26.4N
179.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

.SEE WTPA23 PHFO BULLETIN ISSUED BY CPHC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 17.8N 141.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE…90 NM SE…60 NM SW…100 NM NW QUADRANT.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 360 NM N AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 18.5N 144.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE…NW AND SE QUADRANTS…AND WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 280 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
150 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 20.6N 149.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT…AND WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 280 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 22.9N 154.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR
GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 24.2N 159.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 25.0N 163.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

.SEE WTPN32 PGTW BULLETIN ISSUED BY JTWC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 16.2N 176.7E MOVING NW 9 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT GUSTS 170 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 115 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT
OR MORE WITHIN 330 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240
NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM ELSEWHERE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 19.9N 175.4E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE…130 NM SE…125 NM SW…135 NM NW. SEAS 12 FT
OR MORE WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 220 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 400 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240
NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM ELSEWHERE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 25.6N 174.3E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR MORE WITHIN 240 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 220 NM ELSEWHERE.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 31.0N 169.7E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR
GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE MOVED N OF FORECAST AREA
NEAR 33.6N 165.7E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.

.SEE WTPN32 PGTW BULLETIN ISSUED BY JTWC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 05N161E 1006 MB MOVING WNW 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED W OF FORECAST AREA.

.TROUGH FROM 09N160E TO 08N169E TO 13N175E NEARLY STATIONARY.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH W OF 163E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 09N160E TO 10N170E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 30N175W TO 26N177E MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 100 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N178E TO 26N175E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 15N140W TO 09N147W NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATING.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.RIDGE FROM 10N173W TO 00N173E MOVING W SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 173W
AND 179E. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 164E
AND 179E.

$$
.HONOLULU HI=

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Ex Bertha more likely to miss UK

 

Official blog of the Met Office news team

Tropical Storm Bertha is currently off the north east coast of the US and is likely to become an ‘extra tropical storm’ on Thursday.

It’s then expected to track across the Atlantic – and while there are still a number of possible outcomes, it looks increasingly likely that the UK will miss any serious impacts from ‘ex Bertha’.

The Met Office has been assessing the likelihood of the UK seeing any effects from Bertha by using our own forecast model alongside models from other world-leading forecast centres.

Map shows likely storm track for ex Bertha by midday Sunday. Map shows likely storm track for ex Bertha by midday Sunday.

At the moment the majority of forecasts from those models suggest ex Bertha will track to the south of the UK as a relatively weak low pressure system.

In fact it’s debatable whether this is even ex Bertha, as the storm declines to such an extent as it comes across the Atlantic…

View original post 195 more words

US/Canada: Tropical Storm Bertha 051500Z near 34.8N 71.9W, moving NNE at 19 knots (NHC) – Updated 050814 1520z (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bertha

…BERTHA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE….

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT…..NHC

BERTHA NOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD –
EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE – COULD AFFECT EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WITH RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY – CHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 3-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

…BERTHA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…34.8N 71.9W
ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/H….AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM
FROM THE CENTER…MAINLY TO THE EAST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

 

CANADA

Hurricane Track Information

Hurricane Track Information

Canadian Hurricane Centre symbol Legend

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 37 to 62 kilometres per hourTropical Depression

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 118 kilometres per hourHurricane

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 63 to 117 kilometres per hourTropical Storm

Icon for a storm system that used to be tropical but has since lost most of its tropical characteristicsPost-Tropical Storm

An example showing a Hurricane icon with three parameters; maximum wind 120 Kilometers per hour; local time and day 15:00 Thu/jeu; and the storm name Andrea.

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

WOCN31 CWHX 051145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:00 AM ADT TUESDAY
5 AUGUST 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR TROPICAL STORM BERTHA.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

BERTHA NOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD –
EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE – COULD AFFECT EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WITH RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: 34.3 NORTH 72.2 WEST.

ABOUT 730 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST AT 35 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BERTHA WILL PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUD-COVER FROM IT MOVING OVERHEAD. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT RAIN FROM THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE OF THE STORM COULD
AFFECT THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO THE AVALON
DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY INTERACT WITH THE STORM.

A. WIND.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY THURSDAY IF THE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE PLAYS A GREATER ROLE IN THE STORM’S TRANSFORMATION.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THAN
WIND. AT THIS POINT AMOUNTS OF 25 TO 50 MILLIMETRES ARE POSSIBLE
IF THE RAIN MOVES OVER LAND. MORE INFORMATION WILL BECOME AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGARD LATER TODAY.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

THERE WILL BE SOME OCEAN SWELLS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVE
HEIGHTS NEAR 2 METRES ARE EXPECTED. NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME OCEAN SWELLS AS WELL ON THURSDAY. LARGE WAVES GIVING POUNDING
SURF MAY REACH 4 METRES FOR SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITH MUCH LARGER
WAVES EXPECTED OFFSHORE. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOUTH- AND EAST-FACING BEACHES AS THE OCEAN SWELLS ARRIVE.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPES AND
LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
SOUTHERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS. BERTHA WILL ALSO BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. ANTICIPATE
STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS.

VISIT weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY
_______________________________________________
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

Technical Discussion

 

 

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2014 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BERTHA (AL03) currently located near 34.8 N 71.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map

Tropical Storm BERTHA: Storm-centered zoom at 117 hours lead (TSR) Updated 1511 UTC

Storm Tracker Map
Tropical Storm BERTHA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead – TSR Updated 1511 UTC

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

CANADA: Marine Weather Warnings

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1432

WTNT23 KNHC 051432
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.1N 69.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.8N 64.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 59.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 180SE 150SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 45.0N 53.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 240SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 49.0N 22.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 51.0N 2.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1010

FZNT01 KWBC 051010
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 05
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 06
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 07

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 38.6N 66.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE…AND 180 NM SE AND 150
NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 44.1N 56.4W. WITHIN
30 NM NE AND 90 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE…180 NM SE…150 NM SW…AND 60
NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW E OF AREA 60N34W 996 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO
18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 57N27W 1000 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SW
AND 480 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL BERTHA DESCRIBED IN WARNINGS
SECTION ABOVE.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 56N TO 61N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 55N TO 61N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE
FROM 62N63W TO 60N54W TO 52N50W.

.HIGH 34N34W 1024 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.HIGH 34N57W 1024 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N52W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 55N44W 1015 MB MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N45W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N45W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 51N55W 1017 MB MOVING SE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N48W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 47N41W 1018 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 07.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 33.4N 72.9W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
05 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE…180 NM SW QUADRANT
AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W S TO
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 38.6N 66.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
CONDITIONS N OF FORECAST AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 29N
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 44.1N
56.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…60 NM NW
QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT. CONDITIONS N OF FORECAST AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 48.5N
44.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 49.3N
28.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 50.3N
14.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC FROM 13.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 76.5W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W TO 74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W
AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Mobilisation – The War Diaries Begin

100th Anniversary of  the beginning of World War One 1914 to 1918

100 years ago, on 4th August 1914, Great Britain declared war on Germany after its rejection of the British ultimatum over the neutrality of Belgium.

They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old:
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.

From Laurence Binyon’s poem For the Fallen, written in September 1914

Operation War Diary

100 years ago, in the summer of 1914, the British Regular Army of just under 250,000 men was scattered around the Empire, with nearly half deployed overseas. On 4th August 1914, Great Britain declared war on Germany after its rejection of the British ultimatum over the neutrality of Belgium. Mobilisation orders were issued and the war diaries were officially started. Day 1 of mobilisation was 5th August.

Some Units made an even earlier start on their war diary. The 1st Battalion the Royal Warwickshire Regiment’s starts on 29 July, for example, with the entry “Precautionary Period. Det left for Sheerness, 10.45 pm, 9 officers, 340 R&F” (rank and file). Part of the plan for this precautionary period was for some units to be sent to key coastal areas in case of immediate invasion and this move was probably part of that plan. In succeeding days the battalion diary entries include…

View original post 1,028 more words

East Pacific: HURRICANE 09E ISELLE 041000Z near 16.0N 135.8W, moving W at 08 knots (JTWC) heading toward Hawaii – Updated 040814 1155z (UTC)

TROPICAL STORM 09E ISELLE UPDATED

http://t.co/vptjVLiVOq

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

South Korea/ Yellow Sea: Severe Tropical Storm NAKRI 1412 12W 021500Z near 33.7N 124.8E, moving N at 10km/h(6kt)(JMA) – Updated 020814 1837z (UTC)

Tropical Storm NAKRI

1412 (JMA) #12W (JTWC)

 9/02/20149/03/2014

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS NOW OUT OF DATE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency (JMA is the lead agency in this area)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

TS 1412 (NAKRI)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 2 August 2014

<Analyses at 02/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N33°40′(33.7°)
E124°50′(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°50′(34.8°)
E124°35′(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 03/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E125°10′(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°30′(36.5°)
E126°50′(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N38°00′(38.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
 Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

South Korea

Korea Meteorological Administration

No.12 NAKRI

Issued at(KST) : 2014.08.03. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2014.08.02. 15:00 Analysis 33.5 124.7 985 25 90 300
(NNE 260)
Normal Medium N 11
2014.08.03. 03:00 Forecast 34.6 124.8 990 24 86 250
(NNE 220)
Weak Small N 10 100
2014.08.03. 15:00 Forecast 35.5 125.1 994 21 76 210
(NNE 180)
Weak Small NNE 9 150
2014.08.04. 03:00 Forecast 36.1 125.6 996 19 68 150
(NE 120)
Weak Small NE 7 210
2014.08.04. 15:00 Forecast 36.6 126.2 1000 NE 6

�� It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

�� National Typhoon Center Homepage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1214.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp12140215.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/12W_021132sair.jpg

WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021200Z — NEAR 33.3N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 124.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 34.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 35.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 36.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 36.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 39.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Aug, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NAKRI (12W) currently located near 32.7 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 72 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 33.3N 124.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 34.6N 124.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 35.4N 125.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 36.5N 126.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 38.0N 129.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 160E 36N 150E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 56N 142E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 42N 153E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 53N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 29N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 40N 174E EAST SLOWLY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1411 HALONG (1411) 935 HPA AT 14.9N 135.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1412 NAKRI (1412) 980 HPA AT 33.3N 124.5E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA /1200

WWCI50 BABJ 021200
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC AUG.02 2014=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC AUG. 02=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC AUG. 03=
WARNNING=
SUPER TY HALONG 1411(1411) 940HPA AT 15.1N 135.1E
MOVING WNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 58M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 19.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
AND PADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 16.2N 132.5E 910HPA
AND MAX WINDS 65M/S NEAR CENTER=
TS NAKRI 1412(1412) 985HPA AT 32.8N 124.6E
MOVING NNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
AND FORECAST FOR 031200UTC AT 35.3N 125.1E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M
OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 23M/S GUST 28M/S SEAS
UP TO 6.0M OVER NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 23M/S SEAS UP TO
6.0M OVER KOREA STRAIT=
SLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SEA NEAR RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA SOUTHWEST
OF JAPAN=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 38 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 15.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 20 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 42 TO 52M/S SEAS UP TO 17.0M OVER SEAS
NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH PART
OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA
SOUTHWEST OF JAPAN AND SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA
ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT BANDA AND LAUT MALUKU=
FORECAST=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S GUST 25 TO 32M/S
SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER MIDDLE AND SOUTH PARTS OF
YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=
NE WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S GUST 17M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 13M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER
SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT
AND MIDDLE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA
EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTH PART OF
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SOUTHWEST PART FO JAPAN SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 16 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER
KOREA STRAIT=
SLY/SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 17M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
NW WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S WILL INCREASE FROM 18 TO
24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 41M/S SEAS UP TO 14.0M
OVER SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
SW WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 7.0M OVER SEA
WEST OF GUAM=
WINDS FROM 50 TO 60M/S SEAS UP TO 18.0M OVER
SEAS NEAR CENTER OF HALONG=

Ebola Pandemic Reports – A Possible World Nightmare

TheSurvivalPlaceBlog

ebola-global-pandemic

By Ken Jorgustin

Since last week when we wrote about the Ebola outbreak in context of a biololgical weapon – as well as the nightmare scenario it could bring upon the world given our criss-crossing global airlines system, Ebola Biological Warfare – A Pandemic Nightmare, the deadly virus appears to be expanding even more out of control while even the mainstream media is now widely reporting on it.

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South Africa: Young male surfer, 20, bitten by White Shark in Muizenberg – Multi-agency response – Published 010814 1715z (UTC)

“At 14h07, Friday, 01 August, NSRI Simonstown volunteer sea rescue duty crew and CMR (Cape Medical Response) were activated following reports of a man bitten by a shark while surfing off-shore of the Pavilion, Muizenberg Beach.

The man was reported to have been assisted out of the water.

NSRI Simonstown volunteers, CMR paramedics and a CMR ambulance, the SA Police Services, WC Government Health EMS, City of Cape Town Law Enforcement, Cape Town Fire and Rescue Services and the Red Cross AMS Skymed helicopter responded.

NSRI Strandfontein were placed on alert.

On arrival on-scene a 20 year old male, from Newlands (originally from Durban), was found to be in a stable condition with multiple lacerations to his lower limbs (some of which are deep lacerations) and an avulsion to the left thigh.

A member of the public had begun first aid treatment on the scene prior to paramedics arriving and the member of the public had cut the surf board leash from the surfers surf board and had tied the leash around the patients limbs to act as a tourniquet to stem the flow of blood.

The man has been airlifted by the Skymed helicopter to hospital in a stable condition for further treatment.

He was assisted out of the water by his friend.

At the time of the incident the Shark Spotters were flying the Black Shark Flag (indicating poor water and weather visibility conditions – a misty haze) and a bystander had approached the shark spotters to inform them that they had seen a shark fin in the water and the incident happened when the Shark Siren (indicating swimmers and surfers to clear the water) was in the process of being activated.

Shark Spotters and Law Enforcement officers have closed Muizenberg Beach and bathers and surfers along the False Bay coastline are urged to exercise caution.

The species of shark involved has been confirmed by the bite marks to have been a White Shark and eye-witness accounts suggest the shark to have been between 3 and 4 meters in length but the length of the shark cannot be confirmed pending further investigations.

These pictures are low resolution but are available on Sea Rescue’s Flickr page.

” – NSRI

At 14h07, Friday, 01 August, NSRI Simon's Town volunteer sea rescue duty crew and CMR (Cape Medical Response) were activated following reports of a man bitten by a shark while surfing off-shore of the Pavilion, Muizenberg Beach.

At 14h07, Friday, 01 August, NSRI Simon's Town volunteer sea rescue duty crew and CMR (Cape Medical Response) were activated following reports of a man bitten by a shark while surfing off-shore of the Pavilion, Muizenberg Beach.