Vietnam/ Laos: Tropical Storm SONTINH 11W 182100Z position nr 19.1N 105.0E, moving W 12kt (JTWC) – Updated 18 Jul 2018 2120Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm SONTINH 11W

VIETNAM AND LAOS BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 11W (Son-tinh) Warning #14 Final Warning
Issued at 18/2100Z

 

wp11182

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181800Z — NEAR 19.0N 105.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 105.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 19.4N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 20.1N 102.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 105.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
181434Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE TS 12W CONSOLIDATED AS IT MADE
LANDFALL WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM CENTER PASSED ABOUT
15NM NORTH OF VINH, VIETNAM (48845), WHICH REPORTED WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH MINIMUM SLP OF
994.5MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF 2.9, AND A 181433Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 44 KNOTS. TS 11W
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24
DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

(JMA is the lead agency in this area)

1809-001

TS 1809 (Son-tinh)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 18 July 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 18 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N18°50′ (18.8°)
E105°35′ (105.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 280 km (150 NM)
S 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 19 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°20′ (19.3°)
E103°00′ (103.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 19 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N20°10′ (20.2°)
E100°35′ (100.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

 

VIETNAM

Tropical storm warning
TC TRACKS
 
Tropical storm warning

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

02 Thursday, July 19, 2018 18.9 105.5 TD 56 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

14 Thursday, July 19, 2018 19.4 103 Low 28 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 AM Thursday, July 19, 2018

CHINA

CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

Typhoon Message

20180719 04:16

National Meteorological Center No.2062
Analysis Time: Jul. 18th 20 UTC
Name of TC: SON-TINH
Num. of TC: 1809
Current Location: 19.0°N 105.2°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 15m/s(54km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs SON-TINH will moving W at speed of 15km/h

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jul, 2018 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SON-TINH is currently located near 19.0 N 105.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). SON-TINH is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Laos
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP21 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1809 SON-TINH (1809) 994 HPA
AT 18.8N 105.6E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 19.3N 103.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 20.2N 100.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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US/Canada/ Atlantic Ocean: Subtropical Storm BERYL 15/0900Z 38.3N 65.2W, moving NE ~2.6kt (NHC FL) – Published 15 Jul 2018 1010Z (GMT/UTC)

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL

…BERYL CRAWLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
GULFSTREAM…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT…NHC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

083625_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind


660
WTNT32 KNHC 150834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

…BERYL CRAWLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
GULFSTREAM…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.3N 65.2W
ABOUT 415 MI…670 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 65.2 West. The storm
has slowed down considerably and is now moving toward the northeast
near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual increase in forward speed toward the
northeast or north-northeast is expected through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today. Beryl should begin to
weaken by this evening when it moves over colder water, and the
cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system
late tonight or early Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

CANADA

track4

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

 

4:05 PM ADT Saturday 14 July 2018
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia

For Sub-tropical Storm Beryl.

The remnants of Beryl have reorganized into a subtropical storm approximately 500 km north of Bermuda this afternoon. The storm is moving northeastward 20 km/h. By Sunday afternoon Beryl should have moved over cooler ocean waters and is expected to diminish in intensity. By early Monday morning Beryl will be a post tropical storm and the remnant low will continue a northeast track towards the Avalon. By early Tuesday morning the Avalon should see some showers from this system. Regular bulletins will begin tomorrow afternoon on this storm if the current forecast remains valid.
At this time no significant tropical impacts are expected in the Maritimes or Newfoundland.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 150833
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018
0900 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 65.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 65.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.1N 64.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.5N 62.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.6N 59.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

CANADA

CanadaMapWarningStatus_e B

Go here:
https://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Depression CARLOTTA 04E 17/1800Z nr 17.2N 101.6W, moving NW ~6.08kt 1007mb (NHC FL) – Updated 17 Jun 2018 2048Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression CARLOTTA 04E

…CARLOTTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION…

National Hurricane Center (FL US)

181229_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 171803
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018
100 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

…CARLOTTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION…

 

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.2N 101.6W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta
was estimated to be near near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 101.6
West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On
the forecast track, the small core of Carlotta or its remnant should
move inland over southern Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Carlotta could dissipate later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero and Michoacan coasts, including the city of
Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These
rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across
the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

Other

 

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

FZPN02 KWBC 171725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SUN JUN 17 2018

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 19.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 44N155W 996 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 45N155W TO 40N157W TO 33N169W WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO
21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E OF A LINE FROM 52N150W TO
40N158W TO 30N161W…AND S OF 35N BETWEEN 157W AND 166W WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N153W 992 MB. FROM 48N TO 60N BETWEEN
141W AND 151W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 420 NM E AND NE QUADRANTS…WITHIN 240 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…AND WITHIN 360 NM E OF A LINE FROM 49N147W TO
37N150W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N166W 999 MB. N OF 58N BETWEEN 165W AND
173W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 35N TO 54N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 126W AND 133W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 47N TO 54N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.LOW 55N166W 994 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WITHIN 480 NM E AND 360 NM
SE QUADRANTS…AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 54N172W TO
62N164W TO 66N166W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N164W 997 MB. FROM 51N TO 60N BETWEEN
168W AND 172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 42N167W 999 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM S AND 240 NM
W SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 33N165E 1004 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 360 NM N SEMICIRCLE
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 34N174E 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 36N177W 1013 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 38N TO 50N
BETWEEN 140W AND 158W….AND FROM 31N TO 35N BETWEEN 158W AND
163W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 50N BETWEEN 141W AND
149W…FROM 41N TO 45N BETWEEN 156W AND 163W…AND FROM 54N TO
57N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 48N BETWEEN 141W AND
145W…FROM 45N TO 49N BETWEEN 149W AND 155W…FROM 59N TO 64N
BETWEEN 168W AND 170W…AND S OF 34N BETWEEN 176W AND 178E.

.HIGH 46N137W 1029 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N135W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 45N137W 1023 MB.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 58N137W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N136W 1021 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 39N165W 1021 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N163E 1026 MB.

.FORECASTER NOLT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 19.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 17.2N 101.3W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUN 17 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…20 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN AREA
BOUNDED BY 16N98W TO 15N98W TO 15N100W TO 17N102W TO 18N102W TO
17N100W TO 16N98W E WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA NEAR 17.7N 102.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 F.T
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA INLAND NEAR 18.0N
102.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CARLOTTA NEAR 18.3N 102.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N126W TO 30N135W TO 28N139W TO 29N140W
TO 30N140W TO 30N135W TO 30N126W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N131W TO 28N135W TO
28N139W TO 30N140W TO 30N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 02S114W TO 03.4S112W TO 03.4S120W TO
02S117W TO 02S114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 03S118W TO 03.4S117W TO
03.4S120W TO 01S120W TO 03S118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUN 17…

.TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA…NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL WAVE N OF 10N ALONG 93W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 270 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 14N90W TO 08N95W.

.TROUGH FROM 08N131W TO 04N139W…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM
NW OF TROUGH E OF 135W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N73W TO 10N86W TO 15N98W THEN
RESUMES FROM 14N109W TO 09N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N120W
TO 06N127W TO 07N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
03N TO 09N WITHIN 120 NM W OF COAST OF COLOMBIA…WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 116W…WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 123W…WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 131W…AND FROM 03N TO 07N W OF 138W.

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 17 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 18 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 19 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 06N165W MOVING W 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 05N172W TO
08N178E. ASSOCIATED TSTMS INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 06N167W 1011 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 07N154W 1011 MB MB MOVING NW SLOWLY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N162E TO 28N160E MOVING SE SLOWLY. WIND W 20
TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N166E TO 28N163E TO 26N160E.
ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDED
TO 8 FT OR LOWER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N176E TO 27N168E TO 26N160E.

.COLD FRONT APPROACHING FORECAST AREA FROM N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT NEAR 30N164W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N151W TO 27N158W TO 27N164W TO
28N170W.

.RIDGE FROM 30N150W TO 24N161W TO 20N173W TO 20N174E TO 20N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DEVELOPING HIGH NEAR 22N173E 1016 MB. RIDGE
FROM HIGH TO 23N176W TO 24N165W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 24N175E 1018 MB. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO
28N173W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.OTHERWISE SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 30N TO 28N BETWEEN 165W AND 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS SUBSIDED TO 8 FT OR LOWER.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 06N140W TO 08N146W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
180 NM S OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
90 NM N OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE.

.OTHERWISE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 12N TO 06N
BETWEEN 179E AND 175W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM
12N TO 02N BETWEEN 168E AND 148W.

$$

.FORECASTER BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ West Pacific: Tropical Depression GAEMI 08W 151500Z position nr 24.8N 124.3E, moving NE 20kt (JTWC) – Published 1536Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression GAEMI 08W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL US)

Tropical Depression 08W (Gaemi) Warning #06
Issued at 15/1500Z

wp0818

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 24.4N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 055 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 123.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 26.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 27.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 28.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 124.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1806-00

TS 1806 (Gaemi)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 June 2018

Scale
Intensity
Center position N24°55′ (24.9°)
E123°55′ (123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 390 km (210 NM)
NW 170 km (90 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26°40′ (26.7°)
E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28°00′ (28.0°)
E129°10′ (129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N30°05′ (30.1°)
E133°30′ (133.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

TAIWAN

No ‘Typhoon News’ – Severe Weather Warnings: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/fifows/index.htm?

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression GAEMI is currently located near 23.2 N 121.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). GAEMI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

Other

wp201808_5day

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 151200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 32N 142E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 32N 142E TO 32N 146E 30N 149E.
COLD FRONT FROM 32N 142E TO 29N 140E 27N 135E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N 135E TO 27N 130E 26N 124E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 141E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 173E 40N 146E 42N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 40N 167E ENE 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 51N 148E SOUTH SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 19N 167E EAST SLOWLY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 167E TO 40N 169E 38N 171E.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 171E TO 34N 175E 31N 179E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 171E TO 33N 170E 29N 164E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 164E TO 29N 156E 30N 149E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1806 GAEMI (1806) 994 HPA AT 24.9N 123.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Tropical Storm SEVEN 07W 141500Z position nr 28.6N 131.1E, moving ENE 35kt (JTWC) – Published 14 Jun 2018 1720Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm SEVEN 07W

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL US)

wp0718

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 27.9N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 065 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 129.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 30.5N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 26 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 32.3N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 131.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH TS 07W IS BEING SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 141201Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND SEVERAL 35 KNOT WIND BARBS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 07W HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES AND IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (50
TO 60 KNOTS). A 140900Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS-SECTION
SHOWS THAT TS 07W IS LOSING ANY REMAINING WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE ALSO INDICATES THAT
TS 07W IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH A WEST TO EAST MOVING TROUGH. TS 07W
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
(EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

TAIWAN

No ‘Typhoon News’ – Severe Weather Warnings: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/fifows/index.htm?

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Jun, 2018 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SEVEN is currently located near 27.9 N 129.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). SEVEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

Other

 

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 141200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 27N 129E SEA AROUND OF OKINAWA MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA
AT 22.5N 119.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 24.4N 122.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 25.3N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 144E 46N 150E
53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 30N 170E 30N 155E 35N 160E 40N
160E 40N 150E 42N 144E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 44N 152E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 38N 162E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 56N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 23N 164E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 54N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 162E TO 36N 166E 33N 170E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 162E TO 36N 162E 34N 160E 32N 156E 28N 151E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 151E TO 27N 148E 26N 143E 27N 137E 28N 133E
27N 129E 26N 127E 25N 122E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

China: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (05W) 06/0900Z position nr 21.8N 112.0E, moving NNE 7kt/~8mph (JTWC) – Updated 07 Jun 2018 1542Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Ewiniar (05W)

China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 05W (Ewiniar) Warning #22
Issued at 07/1500Z

 

wp05185

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071200Z — NEAR 21.6N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 112.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 22.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 22.7N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 23.1N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 112.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

JMA logo

(JMA is the lead agency for this area)

1804-001

TS 1804 (Ewiniar)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 7 June 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 7 June>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N21°30′ (21.5°)
E112°00′ (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 8 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°25′ (22.4°)
E112°10′ (112.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 June>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°10′ (23.2°)
E112°25′ (112.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

CHINA (HKO)

Tropical Storm EWINIAR
at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Position: 21.7 N, 111.9 E (about 240 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 75 km/h
Ewiniar will linger over western Guangdong today and tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
20:00 HKT 08 June 2018 23.0 N 111.9 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 09 June 2018 23.0 N 112.6 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EWINIAR is currently located near 21.6 N 112.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). EWINIAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Other

Dr R E 7

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 071200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 17.0N 127.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 19.1N 128.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 20.6N 128.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 132E 35N 140E
40N 142E 42N 141E 46N 151E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N
150E 28N 130E 32N 132E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 45N 127E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 49N 156E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 37N 159E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 996 HPA AT 44N 169E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 35N 125E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 35N 143E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 58N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 25N 161E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 57N 172E SE 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 49N 156E TO 49N 160E 48N 165E.
COLD FRONT FROM 49N 156E TO 46N 150E 42N 143E.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 169E TO 44N 172E 44N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 176E TO 43N 180E 40N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 176E TO 40N 172E 38N 168E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 168E TO 37N 164E 37N 159E 33N 150E 31N 140E
31N 130E 27N 120E 25N 112E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1804 EWINIAR (1804) 998 HPA AT 21.5N 112.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

HKO Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Bulletin issued at 22:15 HKT 07/Jun/2018

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 071200 UTC, Tropical Storm Ewiniar (1804) with central pressure 990 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of two one point six degrees north (21.6 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move north or north-northeast slowly for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 40 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 150 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 081200 UTC
Two three point zero degrees north (23.0 N)
One one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 091200 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

US (Indiana): Subtropical Depression Alberto 30/1500Z near 38.7N 87.4W, moving NNE 17Mph/28Kph 997Mb (NWS WPC) – Updated 30 May 2018 1615z (GMT/UTC)

Subtropical Depression Alberto

…CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES…NWS WPC

Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of western
Kentucky as well as from extreme northeast Georgia to western North
Carolina. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for portions of the
southern Appalachians and Lower Ohio Valley.

alberto_rainfall

 

 

 

 

000
WTNT31 KWNH 301445
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number 22
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL012018
1000 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

…CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…38.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 80 MI…129 KM SW OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 24 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of western
Kentucky as well as from extreme northeast Georgia to western North
Carolina. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for portions of the
southern Appalachians and Lower Ohio Valley.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Alberto
was located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 87.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h) and this motion is expected to accelerate today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system will transition to an extratropical wave cyclone
as the remnant circulation comes under the influence of an upper
level trough moving across the Great Lakes and southern Canada
through Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
higher amounts, will be possible northward along the
Illinois/Indiana border into the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan. Flash flooding and rapid water rises on creeks and streams
will remain a possibility across these areas.

WIND: A few wind gusts may approach tropical-storm force (34 knots
or 39 mph) across western and central Indiana today.

 

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 38.7N 87.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 40.9N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 44.8N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
36H 01/0000Z 48.9N 78.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

Other

Alberto Still a Potent Rainmaker

Drenching rains and widespread flood threats continue as Alberto heads toward Tennessee and Kentucky.
Up-To-The-Minute Coverage

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

N/A INLAND

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Fiji/ Tonga: Tropical Cyclone KENI 19P, 13F 101500Z position near 22.1S 177.6W, moving SE 25kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Apr 2018 1520z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone KENI (19P, 13F)

Mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa currently (Fiji Intensity Category 3) = approx equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Keni) Warning #08
Issued at 10/1500Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 21.1S 178.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.7W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 25.2S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 34 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 31.1S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 37 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 38.2S 167.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 177.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 19P NO LONGER HAS AN EYE FEATURE AND THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
101011Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON A WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS TC 19P
RAPIDLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 19P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa expected by 6 pm April 9 UTC

(Fiji Intensity Category 2)

RSMC Nadi, Fiji LOGO

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone KENI

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 32 issued 1300 UTC Tuesday 10 April 2018

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone KENI

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm April 10 3 20.9S 179.0W 85
+6hr 6 pm April 10 3 22.4S 177.1W 110
+12hr 12 am April 11 2 24.8S 175.0W 140
+18hr 6 am April 11 2 27.2S 173.0W 165
+24hr 12 pm April 11 2 30.8S 171.2W 195
+36hr 12 am April 12 1 38.3S 167.9W 255
+48hr 12 pm April 12 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 12 am April 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 pm April 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 100852 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6S
179.1E AT 100600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND
HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 21 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM
STEERED TO SOUTHEAST BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE WITH LG SURROUND GIVING DT OF
4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 21.3S 178.8W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 23.4S 176.7W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.6S 174.8W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 30.4S 173.5W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 101400 UTC.

FIJI

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:00pm on Tuesday the 10th of April 2018

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MATUKU, TOTOYA AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU
GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVIT GROUP AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PARTS OF FIJI. For more information, refer
to the latest Special Weather Bulletin on Flood issued by RSMC, Nadi at
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20016.txt

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3
SOUTH 179.6 EAST OR ABOUT 100 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU AND ABOUT
270KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADAVU AT 9:00 pm. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 130 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185
KM/HR. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 45 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 KILOMETRES
SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 11:00 am TOMORROW AND ABOUT 1200 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST
OF ONO-I-LAU AT 11:00 pm TOMORROW.

FOR ONO-I-LAU:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 130KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH STORM SURGE OF MORE THAN 2 METERS COULD BE EXPECTED
OVER COASTAL AREAS.

FOR MATUKU, TOTOYA AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU GROUP:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 80KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
110KM/HR.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASING FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN GRADUALLY EASING
FROM TOMORROW. FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA .FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 50 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
80KM/HR. WINDS EASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH FROM TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY
AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVIT GROUP . RAIN EASING FROMTOMORROW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES OVER ELSEWHERE.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS LIKELY.

 

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WITH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 2:00 AM TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLIER.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Apr, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone KENI is currently located near 21.1 S 178.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KENI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KENI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nuku’ alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

Other

sp201819_5day1

(Above image: @wunderground)

doc k10

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / HURRICANE_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 1200 

WHPS01 NFFN 101200
HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 101254 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9 SOUTH 179.0
WEST AT 101200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.9S 179.0W AT 101200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.8S 175.0W AT 110000 UTC
AND NEAR 30.8S 171.2W AT 111200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 031.

STORM WARNING 027 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 091322 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3
SOUTH 173.6 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.3S 173.6E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
65 KNOTS BY 110000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.8S 175.8E AT 100000 UTC
AND NEAR 20.1S 179.6E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

FIJI

Extracted from Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENIISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:00pm on Tuesday the 10th of April  2018

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WITH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone MARCUS (15S) 221500Z position nr 18.1S 106.2E, moving SSW 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 22 Mar 2018 1435z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone MARCUS

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken well away from the WA mainland. It should continue to weaken as it moves further south – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Marcus) Warning #28
Issued at 22/1500Z

sh15184

15s_220600sair

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221200Z — NEAR 17.6S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 106.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 19.8S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 22.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 24.9S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 26.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 30.4S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18 NM EYE WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 221139Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC 15S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DECENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS
(28C). TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS TC 15S WEAKENS DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus

Issued at 8:58 pm AWST Thursday 22 March 2018. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken well away from the WA mainland. It should continue to weaken as it moves further south.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 215 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 295 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 17.6 degrees South, 106.2 degrees East , 960 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and 1120 kilometres northwest of Carnarvon .
Movement: south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken as it continues to move towards the south southwest, well away from the WA mainland. During Friday Marcus will move more southward as it continues weakening. Marcus is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday, well off the west coast of WA.

Hazards:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus is well away from the WA mainland and is not expected to directly affect WA communities.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 22 5 17.6S 106.2E 30
+6hr 2 am March 23 4 18.7S 105.8E 50
+12hr 8 am March 23 4 19.8S 105.7E 70
+18hr 2 pm March 23 3 21.1S 105.7E 95
+24hr 8 pm March 23 3 22.4S 105.9E 120
+36hr 8 am March 24 2 24.8S 106.7E 155
+48hr 8 pm March 24 1 26.4S 107.2E 190
+60hr 8 am March 25 1 27.7S 107.5E 225
+72hr 8 pm March 25 tropical low 29.4S 108.7E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Friday

 

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

 

 

Other

si201815_5day M 22 WUND

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:18S106E999:11:00
PANPAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1247UTC 22 MARCH 2018

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude seventeen decimal six south (17.6S)
longitude one hundred and six decimal two east (106.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 115 knots
Central pressure: 928 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 115 knots near the centre easing to 75 knots by 1200 UTC 23
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre, contracting to within
30 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 22 March with very high to phenomenal
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 70 nautical miles of centre, contracting to within
50 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 22 March with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in NW quadrant, with rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 19.8 south 105.7 east
Central pressure 947 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 22.4 south 105.9 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 22 March 2018.

WEATHER PERTH
================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA) : Tropical Cyclone KELVIN 10S 181500Z position nr 20.6S 122.5E, moving SSE ~5.9kt (BoM) – Updated 18 Feb 2018 1715z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN (10S)

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin continues to weaken and is expected to weaken below cyclone strength on Monday morning. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h will ease over the next few hours – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin

Issued at 11:53 pm AWST Sunday 18 February 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 33.

KELVIN NZ TRACK 18

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin continues to weaken and is expected to weaken below cyclone strength on Monday morning. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h will ease over the next few hours.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Inland areas of the far eastern Pilbara, far northwest North Interior District and adjacent areas of the western Kimberley.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 11:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South, 122.5 degrees East , 125 kilometres north northeast of Telfer and 225 kilometres south southeast of Bidyadanga .
Movement: south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is weakening as it moves inland across the far east Pilbara as a category 2 tropical cyclone. Kelvin will weaken below cyclone strength during Monday morning as it continues to move inland and track towards the south southeast. Gales may persist in the eastern quadrants of the system till Tuesday morning.

Hazards:

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour and very heavy rainfall are likely to be occurring near the centre of the tropical cyclone in the far eastern Pilbara. DESTRUCTIVE winds will ease in the next few hours.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely over remaining parts of the far eastern Pilbara, far northwest North Interior District and adjacent areas of the western Kimberley. The area of GALES will move further inland, possibly as far as Telfer and Parnngurr early Monday morning if the system moves closer than expected. GALES should ease from Monday mid morning as the system weakens below tropical cyclone strength.

DAMAGING WINDS to 100 kilometres per hour may persist to the east of the system once it weakens below tropical cyclone intensity until Tuesday morning.

Heavy rainfall is likely to continue near the system over the far west Kimberley, far east Pilbara and western North Interior during Monday and Tuesday. Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near Telfer and Punmu need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR: People in communities in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Sandfire, including Sandfire are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 11 pm February 18 2 20.6S 122.5E 35
+6hr 5 am February 19 1 21.3S 122.7E 50
+12hr 11 am February 19 tropical low 22.1S 122.9E 70
+18hr 5 pm February 19 tropical low 22.9S 123.1E 95
+24hr 11 pm February 19 tropical low 23.8S 123.3E 120
+36hr 11 am February 20 tropical low 25.5S 123.6E 155
+48hr 11 pm February 20 tropical low 27.1S 124.2E 190
+60hr 11 am February 21 tropical low 28.9S 125.5E 230
+72hr 11 pm February 21 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Monday

ide00135-201802181530

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Kelvin) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 18/0300Z

sh10182

10s_180000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
180000Z — NEAR 19.2S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 121.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 20.1S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 21.4S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 23.0S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 24.7S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 121.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD EYE WALL WITH DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME REVEALS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL INNER EYEWALL NOW POSITIONED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON RADAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 172219Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYAN RING SURROUNDING THE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF EIR
IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171913Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 10S
WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TOP OF TC 10S AS WELL. THIS
RESULTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 10S IS NOW OVER LAND AND SO IS NO
LONGER SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE SSTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE
LAND INTERACTION, TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGH
TAU 12 AS IS COMMONLY SEEN IN THIS REGION. TC 10S WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST AND STEADILY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated12

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN is currently located near 19.2 S 121.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). KELVIN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KELVIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lagrange (18.7 S, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Broome (18.0 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Telfer (21.7 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201810s2201810s_02

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT :

201810s_0g

Current probability of tropical storm winds at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT:

201810s_0f2

Other

si201810_5day2

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WOAU01 AMMC 181157
IDY21000
40:3:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1157UTC 18 February 2018

GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous westerly flow developing from 182100UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 50S090E 50S080E 46S080E 47S086E 50S090E.

FORECAST
Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots developing west of 083E by 182100UTC, and
extending throughout by 190600UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate swell.
================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Norfolk Island/ New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone FEHI 08P 292100Z nr 24.5S 163.9E, moving SSE 23Kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Jan 2018 2212Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FEHI 08P

New Caledonia, Norfolk Island & New Zealand be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET. – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Fehi) Warning #08
Issued at 29/2100Z

sh08182

08p_291800sair

 

WTPS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291800Z — NEAR 23.4S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 165 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 163.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 27.9S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 32.4S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 26 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 37.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 29 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 42.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DECREASING AND HIGHLY SHEARED DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY
291839Z GPM 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A
291235Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS) AND A MULTI-SENSOR SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI
HAS LIKELY COMPLETED TRANSITION TO A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. TC FEHI
CURRENTLY LIES UNDER STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER
ONLY MARGINAL (26-27 DEGREES C) SSTS. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION
INDICATES A STRONG WARM ANOMALY IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER, WITH A
WEAK WARM ANOMALY PRESENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SUPPORTING THE
ASSESSMENT THAT TC FEHI IS IN FACT SUB-TROPICAL. THE STRONG VWS IS
BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND
TAU 24. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSITY FROM TAU 24 TO 48,
AS IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME COMPLETELY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48, AS A 50
KNOT SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

logoimage

65660

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 292022 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI CENTRE 988HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7S 163.9E AT
291800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 21 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 06 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO SOUTHEAST OF PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES EAST OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO SOUTHEAST BY THE
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC APPROXIMATELY 45
NAUTICAL MILES FROM EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, GIVING DT=3.0 MET=2.5
AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING, 3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC 25.6S 164.2E MOV S AT 18 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC 28.7S 164.0E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 31.4S 164.4E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 34.6S 165.1E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 302000 UTC.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jan, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FEHI is currently located near 23.4 S 163.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). FEHI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 60% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Greymouth (42.5 S, 171.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Christchurch (43.5 S, 172.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Dunedin (45.9 S, 170.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Wellington (41.3 S, 174.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Invercargill (46.4 S, 168.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    New Plymouth (39.1 S, 174.1 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201808p1201808p_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

sp201808_5day

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

GALE WARNING 023 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 291921 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI CENTRE 988HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7
SOUTH 163.9 EAST AT 291800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.7S 163.9E AT 291800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 21 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.6S 164.2E AT 300600 UTC
AND NEAR 28.7S 164.0E AT 301800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 020.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone AVA (03S) 082100Z position nr 27.7S 46.8E, moving WSW 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jan 2018 2145z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone AVA (03S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) Warning #25
Issued at 08/2100Z

sh0318103s_081200sams

Google Earth Overlay

 

 
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 27.3S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 46.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 28.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 33.7S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 37.3S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 32 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 46.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 490 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTING THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS)
AND BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BEING OFFSET BY
COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HOWEVER, THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 03S WILL
INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRIOR TO TAU 12,
THE TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WTIH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTH THROUGH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WAS NOT PREDICTED IN THE
MODEL SOLUTION. DUE TO THE INACCURATE PREDICTION OF THE SYSTEMS
INITIAL DIRECTION THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

ZCZC 601
WTIO30 FMEE 081856
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 670 SE: 520 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 46.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/11 18 UTC: 49.2 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AVA’S STRUCTURE REMAINS ATYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM WITH A POOR LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION SEEN ON LATEST MW IMAGERY ALONG WITH DISPLACED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ON THE LATEST MSG1 IMAGERY, AN EXPOSED VORTEX IS SEEN
SOUTH OF FORT-DAUPHIN. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT
GALES FORCE WINDS ARE STILL ASSUMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE TRACK HAS TURNED WESTWARDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT TOMOROW, THE
RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND AVA SHOULD GRADUALLY CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.
A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD IS GRADUALLY
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BECOME INSUFFICIENT.
FROM WEDNESDAY, AVA SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAK, AND SHOULD EVOLVE PROGRESSIVELY IN WARM CORE SECLUSION.
AVA EXTRATROPICALISATION PROCESS IS FORECASTED TO BE ACHIEVE FROM
THURSDAY EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.=
NNNN

trajectoire1

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-lalo1

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jan, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AVA is currently located near 27.3 S 46.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). AVA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the French Southern Ocean and Antarctic Lands
        probability for TS is 95% in about 72 hours
    the Heard & McDonald Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201803s1201803s_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

si201803_5day1

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 905
WTIO24 FMEE 081841
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
NNNN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Vietnam: Tropical Depression ONE/ Agaton 01W 021500Z nr 9.8N 118.3E, moving W 15kt 1006hPa (JMA) – Published 02 Jan 2018 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression ONE ( 01W)

Agaton in Philippines

#AgatonPH HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF ABORLAN, PALAWAN – PAGASA

logo

TD
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 2 January 2018

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 2 January>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N9°50′ (9.8°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 3 January>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N9°55′ (9.9°)
E115°20′ (115.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 3 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°20′ (10.3°)
E112°05′ (112.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11
FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #AgatonPH
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 02 January 2018

#AgatonPH HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF ABORLAN, PALAWAN

• Moderate to heavy rains is expected over the areas with TCWS#1 as well as Bicol Region, Samar provinces, Southern Quezon, Panay Island and the rest of MIMAROPA. Residents of these areas must undertake precautionary measures against possible flooding and landslides and coordinate with their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
• Sea travel is risky over the areas under TCWS #1 and the seaboards of Northern Luzon and Southern Luzon, eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, eastern and western seaboards of Visayas, and eastern seaboard of Mindanao due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon and TD #AgatonPH.
Location of eye/center At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression #AgatonPH was estimated based on all available data at 40 km South of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan (09.4°N, 118.7°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of up to 55 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 75 kph.
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West at 30 kph.
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): 165 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(12.0°N, 113.0°E)
• 48 Hour(Thursday evening):800 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(15.0°N, 108.0°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS#1 (30-60 kph Expected in 36 hours)
Palawan
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

No automatic alt text available.
No automatic alt text available.

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Jan, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression ONE is currently located near 9.4 N 118.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). ONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201801w201801w_0

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MARITIME/SHIPPING

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18010221

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 978 HPA
AT 39N 156E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 1200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 40N 162E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 42N 168E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 42N 163E
MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 44N 141E SEA OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 24N 117E 17N 122E 14N 114E 22N 111E 24N 117E.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 09.4N 119.4E SULU SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 09.6N 116.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 10.4N 112.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 160E 49N 180E
37N 180E 39N 165E 45N 160E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 27N 163E EAST 25 KT.
LOW 984 HPA AT 58N 179W WNW 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 27N 163E TO 27N 167E 26N 173E.
COLD FRONT FROM 27N 163E TO 23N 158E 20N 151E.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 42N 163E TO 41N 167E 39N 168E.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 168E TO 37N 172E 33N 176E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 168E TO 34N 167E 29N 163E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 021200

TTT WARNING 6

AT 1200 02 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMICIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMICIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 031200 ONE TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 041200 ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Vietnam: Typhoon Tembin/ Vinta 33W 241200Z nr 8.3N 112.1E, moving W 13kt 975hPa (JMA) – Updated 24 Dec 2017 1438z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Tembin (33W)

(Vinta in Philippines)

TYPHOON “VINTA” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR). – PAGASA

logo

1727-003

TY 1727 (Tembin)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 24 December 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 24 December>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N8°20′ (8.3°)
E112°05′ (112.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°25′ (8.4°)
E109°25′ (109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N8°30′ (8.5°)
E106°55′ (106.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 180 km (95 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N9°25′ (9.4°)
E102°55′ (102.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #29-FINAL
FOR:Typhoon Vinta
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

ISSUED AT:10:30 AM, 24 December 2017

TYPHOON “VINTA” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

  • Scattered to widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rains will still prevail over Palawan, especially over the southern section. Residents of these areas must take appropriate actions against flooding and landslides, coordinate with their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates.
  • Sea travel remains risky over the western seaboard of Palawan due to the Typhoon.

 

 

PAGASA Track Satellite Image

 

Location of eye/center: At 9:30 AM today, the eye of Typhoon “VINTA” was located based on all available data at 290 km South of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR) (08.4 °N, 114.2 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 145 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 585 km West Southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan(8.7°N, 109.3°E)

 

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated7

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Dec, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon TEMBIN is currently located near 8.3 N 113.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). TEMBIN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TEMBIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bac Lieu (9.3 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cambodia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Can Tho (10.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Nam Can (8.8 N, 105.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Duong Dong (10.2 N, 104.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Kompong Som (10.6 N, 103.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phnom Penh (11.6 N, 104.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Kracheh (12.5 N, 106.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Kas Kong (11.3 N, 103.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201733w3201733w_03

 

Other

wp201733_5day3

(Above image: @wunderground)

Tropical Storm Tembin: Philippines rescuers seek victims

99351631_mediaitem99351630

The Salvador district is among those badly affected – REUTERS

“Rescuers are searching for victims of a tropical storm in the southern Philippines which has killed some 200 people in mudslides and flash floods.

Rescue teams have yet to reach some of the affected areas on Mindanao island.

About 150 people are still missing after Storm Tembin swept through the region, with another 70,000 displaced from their homes.

The rescue effort is being hampered by continuing heavy rain, power cuts and blocked roads.

In the early hours of Sunday, Tembin, known as Vinta in the Philippines, was south of the Spratly Islands, heading towards southern Vietnam. It had gathered strength, with maximum winds of 120km/h (75 mph).

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he was saddened by the loss of life, adding that the UN was ready to help.

There are fears the death toll will rise further.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is due to visit communities affected by Storm Tembin on Sunday.

Police said 135 people had been killed and 72 were missing in northern Mindanao. Forty-seven were killed and 72 missing in the Zamboanga peninsula. In Lanao del Sur, another 18 died.

Between 40,000 and 60,000 people are reported to be housed in evacuation centres.

The mountain village of Dalama was one of the worst affected places. Houses were buried in mud or engulfed in floodwaters.

“The flood was already close and the people were not able to get out from their homes,” survivor Armando Sangcopan told local TV.

The bodies of eight children were extracted from thick mud in the town of Salvador in Lanao del Norte, the Inquirer reports.

“It’s very painful to see the dead bodies of children, whom we also considered to be our own,” the principal, Ricardo Abalo, told the paper.

Aid workers said people had not heeded warnings to evacuate before Tembin arrived, either because they believed the storm would not be severe or they had nowhere else to go.

Risks of disease

Many victims were swept away from low-lying residential areas when the flash floods and landslides struck.

More deaths were reported in Bukidnon, Iligan and Misamis Occidental.

Andrew Morris, from the UN children’s agency Unicef in Mindanao, said in some areas there were big risks of disease, particularly for children, and restoring clean water supplies would be a priority.

“Lanao del Sur province is the poorest in the Philippines, and in the past seven months there have been around 350,000 people displaced in that province because of fighting,” he told the BBC, referring to battles between government forces and Islamist militants in Marawi.

Meanwhile, Richard Gordon, of the Philippines Red Cross, told the BBC: “We have already provided water and hot food.

“And we’re going to be distributing non-food items – certainly blankets, mosquito nets and certainly hygiene kits for those who are in evacuation centres so that we can alleviate the suffering of many of the folks there.

A week ago, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak hit the central Philippines, killing dozens.

The region is still recovering from Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 5,000 people and affected millions in 2013.” – BBC News

99347615_philippinesmindanao4641217

MARITIME/SHIPPING

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17122415

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP22 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1727 TEMBIN (1727) 975 HPA
AT 08.3N 112.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 08.4N 109.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 08.5N 106.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 09.4N 102.9E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Philippines

As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone within Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Arabian Sea: Tropical Cyclone OCKHI (03B) 041500Z position nr 15.7N 69.1E, moving NNE 06kt (JTWC) – Updated 04 Dec 2017 2020z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone OCKHI (03B)

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) Warning #12
Issued at 02/1500Z

io03171

03b_041200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 15.4N 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 68.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 16.8N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 18.7N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 20.9N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 22.5N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1367 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH 37 AND 91
GHZ SSMIS IMAGES FROM 041122Z, SHOWING THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
STRUGGLING TO KEEP TOGETHER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND DISPLACED NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WHICH IS ON CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM DEMS AND PGTW, COMBINED
WITH A 041052Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AS THE ADVANCING
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS A RESULT. A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS STEERING TC 03B ON A COURSE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND IN
COMBINATION WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WILL SEVERELY WEAKEN TC
03B WHILE OVER OPEN WATER. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH JUST AFTER TAU 36, WITH THE REMNANT LOW
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT AROUND TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH ONLY
MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION. OVERALL THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-fcst

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 4 Dec, 2017 12:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI is currently located near 15.4 N 68.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). OCKHI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OCKHI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Diu (20.7 N, 71.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201703b1

201703b_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

TC OCKHI WUND

(Above image: @wunderground)

OTHER

Cyclone Ockhi, which claimed 13 lives in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, has now moved beyond Lakshadweep, the weather department said bringing huge relief to the people of the rain-battered states.

However, many fishermen are still missing and warships have been deployed to comb the southeastern coast for fishing boats missing in wild seas.

Ockhi is now expected to travel north towards Mumbai and Gujarat in the next 48 hours, according to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Director S Sudevan in Thiruvananthapuram, though it is likely to lose intensity, reported news agency Reuters.

As many as 531 fishermen, stranded in the choppy waters off the Kerala and the Lakshadweep coasts due to Cyclone Ockhi, have been rescued, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said today. So far 393 people from Kerala have been rescued, Mr Vijayan said, as the state government announced a compensation of Rs. 10 lakh to the family of those who died in the storm.

Rescue operations are still on with Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard’s coordinated efforts in Thiruvananthapuram-Kollam coastal area. In Tamil Nadu, 60 fishermen are still missing and the Navy has been called in for their rescue
The Tamil Nadu government has also requested the centre to deploy helicopters of the Navy and the Coast Guard for the search and rescue efforts.” – NDTV (Reported by Sneha Mary Koshy, Edited by Soumyajit Majumder | Updated: December 02, 2017 20:26 IST)

FULL STORY

https://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/as-cyclone-ockhi-wanes-kanyakumari-remains-in-knee-deep-water-powerless-1782641

MARITIME/SHIPPING

3Dasiasec_ir1 imd 04

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 041800

WTIN01 DEMS 041800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 04/1800 UTC 04 DECEMBER 2017.

PART-I
THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OCKHI OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 19 KMPH
DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 2030 HRS IST OF 04 TH
DECEMBER, 2017 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE
16.1º N AND LONGITUDE 69.5º E, ABOUT 660 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SURAT AND 470 KM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY
AND CROSS SOUTH GUJARAT AND ADJOINING NORTH MAHARASHTRA
COASTS NEAR SURAT AS A DEEP DEPRESSION BY THE NIGHT OF
TOMORROW, THE 5 TH DECEMBER 2017. (.)
PART:-II
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND EQUATORIAL INDIAN
OCEAN WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEEP DEPRESSION DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
48 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU¬SOUTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS DURING NEXT 3 DAYS (.)
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF
TAMILNADU¬SRI LANKA COASTS EXTENDING UPTO 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL PERSISTS (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 75 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:N/NW-
LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 15/25 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
2)REST AREA: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 63 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 63 DEG E 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA :8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1-4 MTR(.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 55 DEG E:NE/N-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE
E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 66 DEG E:SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E:6-4 NM(.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:N/NW-LY 10/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 60/70
KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E AND S OF 22 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)E OF 65 DEG E:12-15 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 2-5 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 65 DEG E N/NE-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N:WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N:3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)E OF 65 DEG E 5-6 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 3-4 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT :3-4 MTR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-4-5 MTR(.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS BEC E/NE-LY 10/25
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 15 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N 3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA :10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:0.5-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)NE-LY 10/20 KTS BEC E/NE-LY 15/25
KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N :3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-4 MTR(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Storm Brian batters Ireland and United Kingdom – Updated 21 Oct 2017 1507z (GMT/UTC)

Storm Brian

⚠️ Ireland and United Kingdom beware!

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web_sat_vis_irl

https://embed.windy.com/embed2.html?lat=53.015&lon=0.703&zoom=5&level=surface&overlay=wind&menu=&message=&marker=&forecast=12&calendar=now&location=coordinates&type=map&actualGrid=&metricWind=kt&metricTemp=%C2%B0C

High winds and flooding as Storm Brian hits Ireland

Storm Brian has resulted in flooding and surface water in areas of the country that were among the worst hit by Storm Ophelia earlier this week. 

Limerick city has been hit by flooding after the River Shannon overflowed.

Limerick City and Council Council has tweeted images of flooding in front of Sarsfield House along Arthur’s Quay and the road at O’Callaghan Strand was also flooded.

The council said there are no reports of houses being flooded.

Flooding in Limerick later receded as water levels in the Shannon fell after the morning high tide.

In Galway city, temporary flood defences erected close to the Spanish Arch landmark proved effective, though the waters came close to reaching some properties.

There have been reports of flooding on roads in other south and west coastal areas.

Motorists are urged to drive with care as there is a lot of surface water on roads in Cork city and county, while conditions are said to be treacherous on the Bailick Road in Midleton.

The Ballyderown to Ballyduff Road is closed in Kilworth due to flooding.

In Co Kilkenny, the Bleach road and surrounding area are flooded.

Fallen trees and localised flooding have also been reported in Co Waterford.

Local authorities in counties Cork, Galway, Kerry and Kilkenny are among those dealing with the latest flooding which is not as severe as earlier in the week and this morning’s high tide around the Cork coast did not result in any flooding as had been feared.

Some localised spot flooding and trees down in a few locations this morning. Please travel with extreme care if you’re out

bbc-blocks-dark “Storm Brian has hit the UK with gale-force winds and high seas – though the weather is not as bad as predicted.

Gusts of over 70mph were recorded on Saturday morning, with forecasters warning of the potential for flooding, power cuts and transport disruption.

Yellow strong wind warnings are still in place across much of Wales, south England and the Midlands.

There are seven flood warnings across England, urging “immediate action”.

Seven flood warnings have also been issued for Wales.” BBC News

There are 6 Flood Warnings in Scotland

“The storm comes after three people were killed and hundreds of thousands of people – mostly in the Irish Republic – were left without power after the remnants of Storm Ophelia battered the British Isles after weakening from its earlier hurricane force.

Strong winds and high seas reached the western coast of Ireland overnight.

Gusts have hit 80mph (130km/h) in the country, said Irish weather agency Met Éireann, and flooding has been reported in some areas as the water level of the River Shannon rose.

The agency issued an orange warning – its second most severe alert – in seven Irish counties and advised motorists to take care, as trees weakened by Storm Ophelia could fall. However, it said the gusts “won’t be anywhere near as strong” as the previous storm.

A race meeting at Fairyhouse has been cancelled and the Cliffs of Moher tourist attraction in County Clare has been closed.

In Wales, trains and ferries have been cancelled and seafront roads closed.

The strongest wind gust has been measured in Mumbles, to the west of Swansea, at 71mph.

Natural Resources Wales said the coastline was likely to be “extremely dangerous this weekend” – with the Met Office predicting gusts of 60mph (96km/h) to 70mph (112km/h).

Tenby RNLI said it had launched its lifeboat to help a person in difficulty at Skrinkle, while Porthcawl RNLI warned people to watch the storm waves on its live feed, after people were spotted taking photographs from the harbour wall.

Ceredigion council has also warned people to “keep away” from seafronts and “be careful” on low-lying land where coastal flooding is possible.

The Met Office’s chief forecaster, Dan Suri, said gusts inland could also reach between 45mph (72km/h) and 55mph (88km/h).

In addition to the flood warnings, the Environment Agency has issued more than 40 flood alerts – meaning flooding is possible – most of which are in the west and south-west of England.

Flood barriers have been put in place in areas including Fowey in Cornwall, but Frank Newell, from the Environment Agency, said the surge had been lower than forecast.

“In terms of impact, we’ve had spray overtopping quaysides, but we don’t have at the moment any reported property flooding,” he said.

Across the UK, National Rail warned the weather could affect train services, with emergency speed restrictions imposed on most of the routes in Wales.

In England, South Western Railway has put a temporary speed restriction in place in both Hampshire and Dorset, and confirmed a tree had blocked the line between Fareham and Southampton – though this has now been cleared.

Speed restrictions are also operating on the Gatwick Express, Southern Rail and Thameslink, with some reduced services to ease congestion.

The Environment Agency’s national flood duty manager, Ben Lukey, warned people against posing for photos during the hazardous conditions.

He said: “We urge people to stay safe along the coast and warn against putting yourself in unnecessary danger by taking ‘storm selfies’ or driving through flood water – just 30cm (11in) is enough to move your car.”” – BBC News

Ireland (ROI)

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Update: Northwesterly winds will continue to reach mean speeds of 65-80 km/h with gusts 110-130 km/h, mainly in coastal areas. Winds will ease to yellow warning level during this evening.

Issued:

Saturday 21 October 2017 13:41

Valid:

Saturday 21 October 2017 14:00 to Saturday 21 October 2017 21:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Heavy rain with accumulations of 30 to 50mm expected over the period

Issued:

Thursday 19 October 2017 19:00

Valid:

Friday 20 October 2017 09:00 to Saturday 21 October 2017 21:00

Explanation of new warning levels

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for Wales, the Midlands, South West, South East, North West and Eastern England

Updated 09:05 on Fri 20th

Valid from 04:00 on Sat 21st to 23:59 on Sat 21st

A spell of strong winds is expected. Western and southern coastal transport routes and communities are likely to be affected by large waves and spray, with potential for flooding of properties. Some transport disruption is likely across the whole warning area, with delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport. Short term loss of power and other services is also possible, as well as damage to trees.

A swathe of strong south or southwesterly winds reaching parts of Wales and southwest England will steadily transfer east and north during the morning. Later in the afternoon winds will gradually turn westerly and wind inland will start to slowly ease. Meanwhile, in western and southern coastal areas winds will start to slowly ease later in the evening. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected widely within the warning area with gusts of 60 to 70 mph along exposed southern and western coastal areas. These are expected to coincide with high tides, leading to locally dangerous conditions around coastal areas in western and southern parts of England and Wales.

Flood Warning

Issued by the Environment Agency or by SEPA in Scotland and Natural Resources Wales in Wales

About the Met Office Weather Warnings

The Met Office warns the public and emergency responders of severe or hazardous weather which has the potential to cause danger to life or widespread disruption through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.

The Met Office issues warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. These warnings are given a colour depending on a combination of the likelihood of the event happening and the impact the conditions may have.

For more information, see the Met Office Weather Warnings Guide.

About Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline – 0345 988 1188

Synoptic Charts

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Met Éireann Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning

Southwest gales or strong gales early this afternoon between Howth Head and Carnsore Pt and on the south Irish Sea.

Otherwise, West to northwest gales or strong gales today and for a time tonight on all Irish Coastal waters and on the Irish Sea, reaching storm force 10 at first between Carnsore Pt and Erris Head

Issued:

Saturday 21 October 2017 13:00

Explanation of new warning levels

METAREA1 / OFF_SHORE_WARNING / 210948

WOUK50 EGRR 210948
GALE WARNING SATURDAY 21 OCTOBER 0948GMT 64

FORTIES
SOUTHEASTERLY SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 DECREASING GALE FORCE 8
IMMINENT

BISCAY
GALE FORCE 8 VEERING NORTHWESTERLY SOON

FITZROY
SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND DECREASING
GALE FORCE 8 SOON

SOLE
SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 VEERING NORTHWESTERLY SOON AND
DECREASING GALE FORCE 8 LATER

LUNDY
WESTERLY STORM FORCE 10 DECREASING SEVERE GALE FORCE 9
SOON

IRISH SEA
SOUTHWESTERLY STORM FORCE 10, VEERING WESTERLY AND
DECREASING SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 IMMINENT

SHANNON ROCKALL
NORTHWESTERLY STORM FORCE 10 DECREASING SEVERE GALE FORCE
9 SOON

HEBRIDES
NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE 8 EXPECTED SOON
METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 210759

WONT54 EGRR 210759
SECURITE

STORM WARNING
AT 210000UTC, LOW 53 NORTH 12 WEST 964 EXPECTED 56 NORTH
01 EAST 986 BY 220000UTC. WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN SOLE UNTIL 211500UTC,
SHANNON UNTIL 211800UTC, AND ROCKALL UNTIL 212100UTC.
WINDS WILL ALSO REACH VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 AT TIMES IN
SHANNON UNTIL 211100UTC. LOW 40 NORTH 50 WEST 995
EXPECTED 53 NORTH 37 WEST 938 BY SAME TIME. WINDS WILL
REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITHIN 300
MILES OF THE LOW CENTRE AFTER 210900UTC. WINDS WILL REACH
HURRICANE FORCE 12 IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN
100 MILES OF THE LOW CENTRE BETWEEN 211000UTC AND
220000UTC
=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ireland/ UK/ North Atlantic: Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA 16/0300Z nr 49.2N 13.3W, moving N 38kt 969mb NHC FL – Updated 16 Oct 2017 0837z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA

(Ophelia= to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)


Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding (see details below) – NHC

⚠️ Ireland and United Kingdom BEWARE!

 

National Hurricane Center (FL)

145012_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

NB: This map (above) uses AST Atlantic Standard Time is 5 hours behind of British Summer Time

145012_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

NB: This map (above) uses AST Atlantic Standard Time is 5 hours behind of British Summer Time

rb_lalo-animated18

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

…OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB…28.62 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

National Weather Warnings

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Ireland

Latest Update
Storm Ophelia (Ex hurricane), situated over county Galway at 1500 today, is continuing to track northeastwards. It will bring further violent and destructive winds for a time, with gusts of 120 and 150 km/h. Some flooding expected also, due to heavy thundery downpours and storm surges in coastal areas.
There is a danger to life and property.

Winds will gradually abate from the south through this evening and tonight.

Issued:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:02

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 01:00

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

Monday 16 October 2017

AMBER WARNING of WIND

for Northern Ireland, SW Scotland, West Wales, Isle Of Man

Between 12:00 Mon 16th and 23:00 Mon 16th

Updated Mon 16th October at 09:58

A spell of very windy weather is expected today in association with ex-Ophelia. Longer journey times and cancellations are likely, as road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected as well as some bridge closures. There is a good chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. Flying debris is likely, such as tiles blown from roofs, as well as large waves around coastal districts with beach material being thrown onto coastal roads, sea fronts and properties. This leads to the potential for injuries and danger to life. This warning has been updated to extend it into parts of north and west Wales and into the extreme southwest of Scotland. The start time has been brought forward to 1200 to cater for southwest Wales but the impacts elsewhere are more likely later in the afternoon and into this evening.

Ex-Ophelia will move northwards across the west of Ireland today bringing some very strong winds to Northern Ireland along with parts of north and west Wales and the extreme southwest of Scotland. Gusts of 55-65 mph are expected widely with 80 mph gusts likely in places. A smaller area of very gusty winds is then likely to run across Northern Ireland from the west with 65-75 mph gusts possible for a short period of time in any one location. Winds are expected to peak across Northern Ireland and north and west Wales this afternoon including this evening’s busy travel period and to peak across southwest Scotland this evening.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND

for Central, Tayside & Fife Highlands & Eilean Siar North East England North West England Northern Ireland SW Scotland, Lothian Borders South West England Strathclyde Wales West Midlands Yorkshire & Humber

Between 10:00 Mon 16th and 23:55 Mon 16th October

Updated Mon 16th October at 10:33

Very strong winds are forecast to affect most western and some central parts of the UK during Monday. These strong winds are forecast in association with the northward track of ex-Ophelia across or near to the west of the British Isles. Southerly winds are most likely to gust between 55 and 65 mph across much of the warning area, especially in the west. There is also the potential for gusts of 80 mph in coastal areas, particularly on the eastern side of Northern Ireland as well as west Wales and the far southwest of Scotland. Please see separate amber warning. The very strong winds will probably extend to parts of northern England along with some southern and central parts of Scotland in the evening as winds veer more southwesterly across the whole warning area.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest and Northeast England.

Updated 13 October at 10:30

Valid from 00:05 on Tue 17th to 15:00 on Tue 17th

A spell of very windy weather is likely on Tuesday in association with ex-Ophelia. Road, rail, air and ferry services might be affected, with a slight chance of longer journeys times and some roads and bridges could close. There is a slight chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time slightly. The northward extent of the warning area across Scotland has been reduced but it has been extended slightly further south across Yorkshire.

 

00_ukmet_boden002

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 16 Oct, 2017 3:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Hurricane OPHELIA is currently located near 49.2 N 13.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). OPHELIA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OPHELIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Scotland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201717n6201717n_06201717n_2f

OPHELIA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 21 hours lead from 15/0300 UTC

Other

at201717_5day6at201717_sat6

Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 1 Hurricane Ophelia: a Rare and Damaging Storm for Ireland (link)

Channel Islands Doppler Radar

radar02

SOURCE: https://www.gov.je/weather/Pages/Radar.aspx

Windy dot com – Interactive, zoomable near real-time wind map (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 160251
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN… AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 70NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT…….150NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 400SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 13.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 60SE 70SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…110NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT…220NE 290SE 290SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 61.9N .1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.2N 13.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

=============================================================================

METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0759
WONT54 EGRR 160759
SECURITE

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, LOW 48 NORTH 14 WEST 963 EXPECTED 57 NORTH
07 WEST 980 BY 170000UTC. HURRICANE FORCE 12 WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN 150 AND
200 MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 161000UTC AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE
11 AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 300
MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 170200UTC. WINDS WILL ALSO
REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 AT TIMES
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 350 MILES OF THE
CENTRE UNTIL 161700UTC. LOW 54 NORTH 35 WEST 993 EXPECTED
61 NORTH 36 WEST 985 BY SAME TIME. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM
170700UTC

 

UKMET HIGH SEAS FORECAST: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast_and_sea/high_seas#area-6

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hainan/ China/ Macau/ Hong Kong: TYPHOON KHANUN 24W 151500Z nr 20.9N 110.7E, moving W 19kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Oct 2017 1455z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON KHANUN (24W)

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Hainan, Macau, Hong Kong, China & Vietnam beware!
Taiwan  Laos be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 24W (Khanun) Warning #14
Issued at 15/1500Z

wp24173

24w_150000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 21.0N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 111.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.8N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 20.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 18.9N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 17.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.4N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 110.7E.
TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1720-002

TY 1720 (Khanun)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 October 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°40′ (20.7°)
E111°50′ (111.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 440 km (240 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°20′ (20.3°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N19°25′ (19.4°)
E108°20′ (108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E107°50′ (107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement S 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 October>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°20′ (15.3°)
E107°30′ (107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement S Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

PAGASA-DOST

@dost_pagasa

Official Twitter Account of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 1

For: Typhoon “Khanun” (1720) (formerly “Odette”)
Issued at: 11:00 AM, 15 October 2017

At 10:00 AM today

Location of center: 795 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (20.1ºN, 114.4ºE) [OUTSIDE PAR]

Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 km/h near the center

Gustiness: up to 145 km/h

Forecast movement: West at 20 km/h

This tropical cyclone outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has no direct effect on any part of the country. Furthermore, this weather system is expected to make landfall over Southern China in the next 24 hours.

The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast to be issued at 4:00 PM today and at 4:00 AM tomorrow.

NOAA

 rb_lalo-animated16

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KHANUN is currently located near 21.0 N 111.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KHANUN is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KHANUN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Macau
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201724w3

201724w_03

MARITIME/SHIPPING

As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone within Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

 JMA logo

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1720 KHANUN (1720) 950 HPA
AT 20.7N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 20.3N 109.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 19.4N 108.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 16.9N 107.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 15.3N 107.5E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
17101521

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

United States: Tropical Depression NATE 08/1500Z nr 33.1N 87.3W, moving NNE 24mph/21kt 996mb NHC FL – Updated 08 Oct 2017 1800z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression NATE

HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER- NHC

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

National Hurricane Center (FL)

095409_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

095409_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

095409wpcqpf_sm1

 

rb_lalo-animated4

natloop_small

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

…HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…33.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39
km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Nate’s center will continue to move inland across the Deep
South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through
Monday.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate
is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the
the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through
this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the
northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from
the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and
northern Georgia into the western Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Jackson, MS Threats and Impacts 451 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA Threats and Impacts 722 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Atlanta, GA Threats and Impacts 1108 AM EDT Sun Oct 8
Tallahassee, FL Threats and Impacts 1117 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 /1017 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Huntsville, AL Threats and Impacts 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Birmingham, AL Threats and Impacts 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL Threats and Impacts 1029 AM CDT Sun Oct 8

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Oct, 2017 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression NATE is currently located near 33.1 N 87.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). NATE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201716n4

201716n_04

Other

 

at201716_5day4

at201716_sat4

 

 

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Southwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Nate May Hit Mexico and U.S. Gulf Coast as a Strengthening Hurricane

Strengthening Nate Heads into the Gulf and Toward a Saturday Night Landfall

Nate Sweeps Across U.S. Gulf Coast

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTNT21 KNHC 081448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Canada/ US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm MARIA 28/1500Z Update from NHC and others -Updated 28 Sep 2017 1717z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm MARIA

MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES – NHC

 

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

145714_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

rb_lalo-animated12

145714_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

 

natloop4

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

…MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.8N 69.3W
ABOUT 365 MI…585 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 400 MI…650 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Maria is
moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and the storm is
expected to accelerate eastward through tonight. A turn back toward
the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is
expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Maria will continue to
move away from the U.S. east coast and pass well to the south of
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east
coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

None

favicon-mobileCANADA

track

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

 

8:37 AM ADT Thursday 28 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

  • Avalon Peninsula Southeast

For Tropical Storm Maria.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 P.M. NDT.

Tropical Storm Maria currently east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. Will accelerate eastward over next few days and track well offshore of Atlantic Canada.

1. Summary of basic information at 9.30 A.M. NDT.

Location: 36.7 north 69.8 west.

about 560 kilometres southeast of New York City.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 km/hour.

Present movement: east-northeast at 13 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 982 mb.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Maria is expected to track well offshore and not have any direct weather impacts on Canadian land areas. Periods of heavy rain are expected over parts of Atlantic Canada today from an unrelated frontal system approaching from the northwest.

a. Wind.

No direct wind impacts are expected over land from Maria as the strongest winds from the storm are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Rain directly associated with Maria is expected to remain well offshore. However, moisture from the storm may feed into a cold front crossing Atlantic Canada today. This will enhance rainfall amounts along the front as it moves southward. The maximum level of enhancement may be over the southern Avalon Peninsula where a heavy rainfall warning is in effect. Once again, indirectly related to Maria.

c. Surge/waves.

There will be some ocean swells along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia today and tomorrow with waves breaking at times above 2 metres. Swells near 2 metres along the southern coast of Newfoundland will persist for a few days. These swells may build to 3-4 metres along the southern Avalon beginning tonight. Dangerous rip currents are also possible and the public should exercise caution until swells subside.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Maria could bring gales to the southern Grand Banks marine areas during its closest approach on Saturday. Seas (mostly swells) may build up to 5 metres over that area late Friday from a combination of both Maria and Hurricane Lee which is farther southeast.

Forecaster: Fogarty/March

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

 

 

 

Other

at201715

at201715_sat1

 

 

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 5 Hurricane Maria Hits Dominica

Maria Headed for Catastrophic Hit on Puerto Rico, St. Croix

Maria Slams St. Croix, Rips Across Puerto Rico

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico

More Havoc as Category 3 Maria Plows Northward

Maria’s Forecast Path Edging Closer to Outer Banks

Coastal North Carolina Prepares for Outer Effects of Hurricane Maria

A Brush From Maria: Winds and Storm Surge Rising in North Carolina

Maria Pulling Away From North Carolina; Lee a Major Hurricane

Maria and Lee On the Way Out; New Tropical Depression Possible near Florida

750px-caribbean_general_map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm33

WTNT25 KNHC 281448
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT……. 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT…….180NE 210SE 160SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 70.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 66.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT…160NE 200SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.4N 62.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 180SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.8N 56.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT…140NE 200SE 190SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.3N 48.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT…130NE 230SE 220SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.9N 31.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 69.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Note: See above for 27/1800Z NHC update

CANADA

canadamapwarningstatus_e

For more detail visit: http://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

 Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

 

 

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

rb_lalo-animated3

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°40′ (35.7°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°40′ (40.7°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area NE 410 km (220 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°50′ (45.8°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP MARITIME 17

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: Storm Aileen to bring very strong winds across much of England and Wales during Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning – Published 12 Sep 2017 1425z (GMT/UTC)

windy 1825 BST

Image above: Windy.com – Near real-time interative wind map (Link)

Storm Aileen is the first storm to be named since this seasons names were released last week and it will bring strong winds to central parts of the UK.

A deepening area of low pressure will bring very strong winds across much of England and Wales during Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. An Amber National Severe Weather Warning is in place, warning of gusts of 55-65 mph in particular across parts of Cheshire, Lancashire, Derbyshire, Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire.  Gusts up to around 75mph gusts could also be possible in exposed locations such as the coast and hills in these areas.

A Yellow weather warning for rain is also in place for parts of Northern Ireland, Northern England and Southern Scotland which warns of 30-40mm of rain falling within 6-9 hours which could cause some disruption.

Chief forecaster Frank Saunders said: “Storm Aileen is expected to bring strong winds of up to 75mph to a central segment of the UK and an Amber weather warning has been issued. As well as the strong winds, there will be some heavy rain pushing eastwards overnight which could see accumulations of 30-40mm. The low pressure system that is bringing these strong winds will move fairly swiftly from west to east over the UK and although there will still be some disruption through Wednesday morning, the winds will ease by the afternoon leaving a day of blustery showers.”

Richard Leonard, road safety spokesperson at Highways England, said: “We’re encouraging drivers to check the latest weather and travel conditions before setting off on journeys, with strong winds expected from Tuesday evening until Wednesday morning. In high winds, there’s a particular risk to lorries, caravans and motorbikes so we’d advise drivers of these vehicles to slow down and avoid using exposed sections of road if possible.”

There has been some speculation that this weather is being driven by the severe weather in the Caribbean and US. There is no such connection. Met Office Deputy Meteorologist Chris Tubbs said: “There are no links between the very strong winds we expect to see here in the UK and the hurricanes affecting the United States and the Caribbean at present. This system originated well north in the Atlantic Ocean, independent of the current Caribbean hurricanes”.

As Storm Aileen clears out eastwards into the North Sea, the UK will be left with cool showery conditions through the end of the week and into the weekend. The showers will still be blustery on Thursday with the winds easing as we get closer to the weekend. Within the showers there will be some periods of brightness although it will still feel cool across the whole of the UK with top temperatures only reaching 18-19°C

You can find out the current forecast in your area using their forecast pages and by following the Met Office on Twitter and Facebook, as well as using their mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. Source: UK Met Office

AMBER WARNING of WIND for north Wales. northern parts of The Midlands, southern parts of northern England and the northern fringes of East Anglia.

Between 00:05 Wed 13th and 06:00 Wed 13th

Storm Aileen will bring a brief spell of very strong westerly winds with gusts of 65-75 mph during the early hours of Wednesday. Longer journey times by road, rail and air are looking likely, with restrictions on roads and bridges. Damage to trees and perhaps buildings, as well as power cuts are expected. Flying debris and large coastal waves are possible, and these could lead to injuries.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for Wales, The Midlands, southern parts of northern England, southwest England and southeast England.

Between 20:00 Tue 12th and 10:00 Wed 13th

Storm Aileen is expected to bring very strong winds with gusts of 50-60 mph on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. The worst of the winds, with gusts to 65-75 mph, are expected to be across North Wales, southern parts of Northern England, the North Midlands and Norfolk, for which area a separate Amber warning is being issued. Longer journey times by road, rail and air are likely, with restrictions on roads and bridges. There is also a chance of power cuts, and damage to trees and perhaps buildings. Along windward-facing coasts, some wave overtopping is possible.

YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for southern parts of Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England.

Between 17:00 Tue 12th and 08:00 Wed 13th

Heavy rain is expected later on Tuesday and early on Wednesday. This may cause flooding on the transport network, with spray and difficult driving conditions due to the combination of rain and wind. There is also a small chance of flooding affecting homes and businesses. Note also the possibility of strong winds in the south of the area – please see separate warnings.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

United States: Tropical Storm IRMA 11/2100Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 11 Sep 2017 2145z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM IRMA

IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA – NHC

⚠️

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

SPECIAL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FROM NWS

152552_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TS IRMA Adv 51

 

152552_earliest_reasonable_toa_34 51

activity_looprb_lalo-animated2

southeast_loop

Robins Air Force Base, GA Radar

Wind Probs  

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM E OF ALBANY GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM S OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warnings from Fernandina Beach southward, from
the Aucilla River westward, and from Clearwater Beach southward,
including Tampa Bay, have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Flagler/Volusia County line to
Altamaha Sound is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from north of the Suwannee River to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a
turn toward the northwest is expected by Tuesday morning. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over
southwestern Georgia tonight and move into Alabama on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Irma is likely
to become a tropical depression on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

North of Clearwater Beach to Aucilla River…4 t 6 ft
West of Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…1 to 3 ft
Clearwater Beach to Bonita Beach including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft

South Santee River to North of Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Flagler/Volusia County line, including the St.
Johns River…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area into tonight.

Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

South Carolina and north-central Georgia and Alabama into the
southern Appalachians…3 to 6 inches with isolated 10 inches.
Northern Mississippi and southern portions of Tennessee and North
Carolina…2 to 4 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight along the South
Carolina coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Miami, FL Threats and Impacts 1125 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Charleston, SC Not currently available 1139 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tallahassee, FL Threats and Impacts 1141 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 /1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Atlanta, GA Threats and Impacts 1147 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Birmingham, AL Threats and Impacts 1124 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Melbourne, FL Threats and Impacts 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tampa Bay Area, FL Threats and Impacts 456 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Jacksonville, FL Threats and Impacts 515 PM EDT Mon Sep 11

============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRMA is currently located near 31.5 N 84.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). IRMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Atlanta (33.8 N, 84.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Nashville (36.1 N, 86.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Louisville (38.4 N, 86.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201711N tsr1 irma 11

201711N_0 tsr2 irma 11

=============================================================================

Other

 

at201711_5day ts irma

at201711_sat ts irma

 

The two images above are from @wunderground

Ferocious Irma Pounding Florida, But It Could Have Been Worse

No Rest for the Hurricane-Weary: Jose a Potential East Coast Threat

windy.com – interactive animated wind map

Caribbean_general_map

Caribbean General Map (Image: Kmusser)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 112035

WTNT21 KNHC 112035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNINGS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD… FROM
THE AUCILLA RIVER WESTWARD… AND FROM CLEARWATER BEACH
SOUTHWARD… INCLUDING TAMPA BAY… HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND IS DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* NORTH OF CLEARWATER BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….360NE 230SE 150SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 390SE 390SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N 85.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…220NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.8N 88.8W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 88.5W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

000
FZNT25 KNHC 112138
OFFN04

NAVTEX Marine Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
538 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available
through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed
Coastal Waters Forecasts…

Southeast Gulf of Mexico

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Irma will continue moving NNW
and and weaken to a depression as it move farther N. A weak
pressure pattern will set up across the Gulf in the wake of Irma
through the remainder of the week. N to NE swell from Irma will
dominate seas across the Gulf through Tue.

.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt
late in the night. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. Slight
chance of showers.
.TUE…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft,subsiding to
3 to 5 ft late in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU NIGHT…S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E after midnight.
Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Farther E,
Hurricane Jose is near 26.4N 69.2W, 973 mb moving N at 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts to 105 kt. Jose is expected
to move to 27.2N 69.0W tonight, to 27.0N 67.7W Tue afternoon, to
26.3N 66.7W Tue night, to 25.3N 66.1W Wed afternoon, to 24.4N
68.6W Thu afternoon, before moving slowly NW thereafter as its
completes this clockwise loop. Swell from Jose will dominate
area waters Tue through Fri.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and SW 20 to 25 kt
N of 27N. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE…W winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 15 to 20 kt N of
27N. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT…SW winds less than 5 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 10 to
15 kt N of 27N. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED…S of 27N,SW to W winds less than 5 kt, shifting to N late
in the afternoon. N of 27N,SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E to
SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in NE swell.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT…N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.
.SAT NIGHT…NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hurricane IRMA signpost

CAT 1 HURRICANE IRMA

094751_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind IRMA 11

rb_lalo-animated irma 11

On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of the #Florida Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida Panhandle into southern #Georgia this afternoon, and move through southwestern Georgia and eastern #Alabama tonight and Tuesday – NHC 11/0900utc

Signpost – Please follow this link: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2017/09/11/united-states-cat1-hurricane-irma-110900z-update-from-nhc-and-others-updated-11-sep-2017-1111z-gmtutc/

Mexico/ Gulf of Mexico: CAT2 Hurricane KATIA 07/0600Z nr 21.6N 94.7W, moving ESE 2kt (NHC FL)- Published 07 Sep 2017 0810z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE KATIA

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN..
could be near major hurricane strength at landfall..NHC

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO
* SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Brownsville, TX Radar

Catedral Radar Mexico

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…21.0N 95.8W
ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI…205 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco
* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 95.8 West. Katia is moving
toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through landfall within the hurricane warning
area early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected and Katia
could be near major hurricane strength at landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the
north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and
Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi,
western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are
possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San
Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by tonight or early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by
later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin/Bann

NNN

 

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2017 15:00 GMT

Hurricane KATIA is currently located near 21.0 N 95.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KATIA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KATIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

=============================================================================

Triple Trouble: Cat 5 Irma, Cat 3 Jose, Cat 1 Katia

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0250

WTNT23 KNHC 081432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO
* SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT……. 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT……. 50NE 60SE 55SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 95.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.6N 96.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.7N 97.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.1N 98.4W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 95.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CARBIN/BANN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 081504
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-090315-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Hurricane Katia centered near 21.0N 95.8W 975 mb at
11 AM EDT moving WSW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts
105 kt. Katia is forecast to move to near 20.6N 96.4W this
evening, with maximum sustained wind of 85 kt gusts to 105 kt,
and inland near 19.7N 97.4W by early on Tuesday, with maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt. Katia will gradually weaken
as it moves further inland through Tuesday night. Major
Hurricane Irma is forecast to enter the eastern Straits of
Florida Saturday afternoon, then turn northward across the
Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday, bringing tropical
storm force and possibly hurricane force winds to eastern
portions of the Straits of Florida and Florida Bay in the far SE
Gulf late Sat into Sun.

 

$$

GMZ011-090315-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON…N to NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.

$$

GMZ013-090315-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

$$

GMZ015-090315-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NE winds 20 to
25 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 27N, N to
NE winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 35 to 40 kt late.
Elsewhere, NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 11 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 27N, N winds 40 to
50 kt. Elsewhere, NE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming N to NE 35 to
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.TUE…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ017-090315-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in mixed
NE and SW swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ019-090315-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ021-090315-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N to NE winds
20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida,
N to NE winds 40 to 45 kt, becoming N 55 to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida,
NW to N winds 85 to 105 kt. Seas 17 to 19 ft. Elsewhere, N winds
30 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Straits of Florida, NW to
N winds 50 to 55 kt, becoming NW 30 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 19 ft, subsiding to 10 to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, NW to N winds 35 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 13
ft.
.SUN NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.TUE…SW to W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ023-090315-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…HURRICANE CONDITIONS. SW to W winds 65 to 75 kt. Seas
14 to 19 ft S of 21N W of 95W, and 16 to 20 ft elsewhere.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 21N W of 95W, SW
to W winds 65 to 75 kt, shifting to S to SW 60 to 70 kt late.
Seas 19 to 22 ft. Elsewhere, SE winds 55 to 60 kt, becoming E 30
to 35 kt late. Seas 15 to 18 ft, subsiding to 9 to 12 ft late.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 21N W of 95W, E
winds 35 to 40 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 to 14 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Elsewhere,
NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in
the afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.MON…NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ025-090315-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…Within 60 nm of coast of Campeche, E to SE winds 5 to
10 kt, shifting to SW towards evening. Elsewhere, SE to S winds
10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less Within 60 nm
of coast of Campeche, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

Forecaster Aguirre

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Taiwan/ South China Sea: Tropical Cyclone MAWAR 010900Z position near 20.7N 118.2E, moving NNW 07 knots (JTWC) – Published 01 Sep 2017 1000z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Mawar

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

wp201718_5day MAWAR WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201718_sat MAWAR WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 18W (Mawar) Warning #03
Issued at 01/0900Z

wp1817 MAWAR JTWC

18W_010600sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z — NEAR 20.5N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 118.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 21.1N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 21.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 22.4N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 23.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 25.4N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 28.2N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z
AND 020900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SANVU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

jma-logo3

1716-00 JMA

TS 1716 (Mawar)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 1 September 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 1 September>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°10′ (20.2°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 2 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°00′ (21.0°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 3 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°05′ (22.1°)
E116°25′ (116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°20′ (24.3°)
E114°00′ (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression MAWAR is currently located near 20.5 N 118.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). MAWAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201718W tsr1

(Image: TSR)

201718W_0 tsr2

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn mawar

17090115 mawar jma map

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600
WTJP22 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1716 MAWAR (1716) 998 HPA
AT 20.2N 118.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 21.0N 117.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 22.1N 116.4E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 24.3N 114.0E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 010600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) MAWAR (1716): NIL.
GALES OVER NE PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS).
SYNOPSIS (010600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 010600UTC, TD MAWAR (1716) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA
AND MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 20.3N
118.5E AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 020600UTC: 21.3N, 117.7E
GALES OVER NE PART OF SCS LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER GALES LATER.
SWELL E TO NE 3 M OVER N AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SCS.
SWELL SE 3 M OVER LUZON STRAIT.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 180 NM FROM CENTRE OF MAWAR.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, CENTRAL PART
OF SCS.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR MALAYSIA, SEAS NEAR
SOUTHERN PART OF VIETNAM.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

=======================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US(TX/LA/MS/TN): Tropical Depression Harvey 31/0300Z update (NHC FL) – Updated 31 Aug 2017 0920z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.

…..catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week

 

at201709_5day TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

at201709_sat TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

030124_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TD HARVEY

avn_lalo-animated TD HARVEY

030124WPCQPF_sm rain 31

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 31METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 300850

WTNT24 KNHC 310254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 92.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 310857
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-312100-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Depression Harvey is inland over Louisiana.
As Harvey moves farther inland, a ridge will slowly build back
across the Gulf through the remainder of the week before a trough
develops over the western Gulf this weekend. An area of low pressure
could form along this trough over the southwestern Gulf by the
weekend.

$$

GMZ011-312100-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S. Seas
2 ft or less.
.FRI…S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NE to E. Seas 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to 3 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ013-312100-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to NE to E late. Seas
2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ015-312100-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and S to SW 10 to 15 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…W winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S late. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-312100-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ019-312100-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt S of 24N, and E to SE 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.FRI…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt S of 24N, and E 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ021-312100-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E. Seas 3 ft,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

GMZ023-312100-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft
or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt S of 21N W of 95W, and NE to E
10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to NW 5 to 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to W to NW in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to E to SE
late. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ025-312100-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less,
building to 3 to 4 ft late. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

Forecaster GR

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Severe Tropical Storm Hato 15W 23/1200Z nr 22.7N 115.3E, moving WNW 30 km/h (16 kt) (JMA) – Updated 23 Aug 2017 1332z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Hato 15W downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm by JMA

 

JAPAN MET

1713-00 jma 23

STS 1713 (Hato)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 23 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N22°40′ (22.7°)
E111°00′ (111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 330 km (180 NM)
N 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°20′ (23.3°)
E107°55′ (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°40′ (23.7°)
E104°30′ (104.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

CMA CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0
Typhoon Message
20170823 20:26

National Meteorological Center No.680
Analysis Time: Aug. 23th 12 UTC
Name of TC: HATO
Num. of TC: 1713
Current Location: 22.7°N 110.9°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s(90km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs HATO will moving WNW at speed of 28km/h
Currently on land
Red Warning of Typhoon

23-08-2017Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center issued red warning of typhoon at 6:00 p.m. on August 23.

At 5:00 p.m. today, Typhoon Hato, this year’s 13th typhoon, centered northern parts of the South China Sea (21.3N, 115.2E), about 200 kilometers away from southeastern Zhuhai city, Guangdong province. The maximum wind near the typhoon center hit scale 13 (40m/s).

It is forecasted to move toward northwest at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour with a strengthening force. At noon today, it is predicted to make landfall in Guangdong coast ranging from Zhuhai City to Yangjiang City (40~48 m/s, scale 13~15, typhoon level or severe typhoon level). After that Hato will continue to march toward west with a shrinking strength and slip into Guangxi on the evening of August 23 (30~33 m/s, scale 11~12, severe tropical storm or typhoon level).

Gale forecast: From August 23 to 24, in portions of Taiwan Strait, northern parts of the South China Sea, Qiongzhou Strait, Beibu Gulf, Guangdong coast, southern Fujian coast, eastern and northern Hainan coast, Guangxi coast, southern Guangdong coast, and eastern Guangxi, scale 7~9 gale is forecasted. Pearl River Estuary will be battered by scale 11~13 gale. Furthermore, the sea or land areas on the way of the typhoon center are expected to be hammered by scale 14~15 gale or scale 16~17 gust.

Precipitation forecast: From August 23 to 24, in some certain locations of most of Guangxi, western and southern Guangdong, northern Hainan Island, southern Fujian coast, and western Taiwan, heavy rain or rainstorm is forecasted. Furthermore, portions of southeastern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and northeastern Hainan Island will be exposed to heavy rainstorm or extraordinary rainstorm (250~350 mm). (August 23)

Editor Wu Peng

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon HATO is currently located near 22.2 N 112.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). HATO is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HATO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201715W tsr1 23

(Image: TSR)

201715W_0 tsr2 23

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11/ TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1713 HATO (1713) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 22.7N 111.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.3N 107.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.7N 104.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Storm Franklin – ⚠️ Hurricane Warning for MX coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL) – Published 09 Aug 2017 1040z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco (NHC FL)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen (NHC FL)
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo (NHC FL)

Traducción al español (haga clic aquí)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

…FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN is currently located near 20.4 N 92.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). FRANKLIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Coatzacoalcos (18.2 N, 94.4 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

Landfall #2 Coming Up: Franklin Enters Bay of Campeche (Category 6 website)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0837

WTNT22 KNHC 090837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF RIO PANUCO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO BARRA DEL TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ Korea: Typhoon Noru 07W 031600Z nr 28.3°N 132.8°E, moving WNW 10 km/h 6kt(JMA) – Updated 03 Aug 2017 1720z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Noru 07W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Japan BEWARE!!   Korea BE AWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 34 FEET – JTWC

wp201707_5day Noru wund 03 aug

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201707_sat_anim noru wund sat 03 .gif

1705-00 NURU JMA 03a

1705-00 NURU JMA 03

WARN 03

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1705 (Noru)
Issued at 16:40 UTC, 3 August 2017

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 3 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E132°50′ (132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Estimate for 17 UTC, 3 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E132°40′ (132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E131°30′ (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°40′ (28.7°)
E130°25′ (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N29°20′ (29.3°)
E129°25′ (129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′ (31.3°)
E130°00′ (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 07W (Noru) Warning #56
Issued at 03/1500Z

wp0717 JTWC 03

07W_031200sair 03

IR Sat

 

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 056
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 28.3N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 133.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 28.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 29.1N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEA