UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 13th April 2015 2050z (GMT/UTC)

==UK==

Met Office:

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

(For details follow above links)

No Flood Warnings in England and Wales – None in Scotland

at

21:22 on 13 Apr 2015 BST

NO Flood Alerts in England and Wales – 1 in Scotland

at 

21:22 on 13 Apr 2015 BST

( Check for interim updates in comments at bottom of page)

Severe Weather Warnings for Europe are now toward the bottom of the page

UK Visible Satellite (meteocentre.com)

UK Infra Red Satellite (meteocentre.com)

Weather Radar Europe (meteox.co.uk)

Channel Islands (Jersey) Weather Radar Latest Animation

Jersey Radar also covers much of South/South West of England & N France


SkyWarn UK’s mission is to forecast, report, and record severe weather.

SKYWARN UK CURRENT ALERT (Link)

Last Update: 1000GMT THURSDAY 11TH DECEMBER 2014

THERE ARE NO CURRENT ALERTS.

*****

For details on SkyWarn UK’s alert criteria, click HERE.

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The latest Severe Weather Reports from TORRO can be found by following this link:

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Latest news reports (see bottom of page)

BBC Weather

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

 

UK Warnings

Monday 13 April Published at 11:16

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING of rain for Scotland.

Issued at 1100 on Monday the 13th 2015 for parts of western Scotland.

Valid from 0005 Tue 14th to 0500 Wed 15th.

An area of rain will reach Argyll and the Northwest Highlands on Monday afternoon. This will occasionally turn heavy on western slopes overnight and through Tuesday, before clearing to the south early on Wednesday morning.

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption due to localised flooding from Tuesday through to early Wednesday as well as some difficult driving conditions with spray on roads.

BBC Weather warnings explained

There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow. The most severe is Red.

A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

Northern Ireland: Addition information available from https://www.facebook.com/northernirelandweather?fref=ts

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Peter Gibbs explains sudden stratospheric warming and why it is often linked to outbreaks of cold weather: Sudden stratospheric warming

What is freezing fog?

UK RADAR AND SATELLITE

Surface Analyses & Observations UK and Europe

Animated map of global wind conditions

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

News at bottom of page

FLOOD WARNINGS & ALERTS

(Photo: kitguru.net)

Just six inches of fast flowing water can knock you over. Do not walk or drive through floodwater

Severe Flood Warning Severe Flood Warning Severe flooding. Danger to life.

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNING currently in force in England & Wales at

21:22 on 13 Apr 2015 BST

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

21:22 on 13 Apr 2015 BST

Flood Warning Flood Warning Flooding is expected. Immediate action required

There are NO FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in England & Wales at

21:22 on 13 Apr 2015 BST

http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

There are NO FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

21:22 on 13 Apr 2015 BST

Flood Alert Flood AlertFlooding is possible. Be prepared.

There are NO FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in England & Wales at

21:22 on 13 Apr 2015 BST

There are 1 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in Scotland at

21:22 on 13 Apr 2015 BST

About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline 0845 988 1188

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 13 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

A strong southwesterly flow will affect the north of the British Isles, between low pressure centred near Iceland and high pressure centred over the near continent.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 10 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Low west of Iceland 972 expected northeast of Iceland 978 by midday tomorrow

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

The general synopsis at 13 April 19:00 UTC

At 131200UTC, low 63 north 35 west 972 expected 69 north 12 west 975 by 141200UTC. New low expected 62 north 42 west 987 by same time. High 50 north 03 east 1034 expected 48 north 09 east 1030 by that time

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/maps/britisles/mappage.htm

Avalanche Information for the Scottish Mountains (SAIS)

Avalanche Information Service publish the daily forecasts of the avalanche, snow, and mountain conditions at the 5 most popular areas of Scotland during the season.

Latest Forecasts:

Report an avalanche now

Mountain Weather Information Service

MWIS currently produce forecasts for 8 different mountain areas of the UK as an aid to mountain safety.

Forecasts are produced manually using information from a range of forecast models and forecasters knowledge of mountain weather. New forecasts, for the next three days are produced by 4:30pm daily, normally earlier in the winter, and amended as necessary.

http://www.mwis.org.uk/

===============================================

News Reports

BBC

None




BBC

Monthly Outlook

Monday 13 April Published at 10:00

Summary
Predicatably vernal, not so predictable in detail

The first full week of April brought a spell of very pleasant and warm conditions for large swathes of the UK, with temperatures widely peaking into the high teens on many days. In fact, Friday brought the highest temperature measured in the UK so far this year, with 21.9C recorded at St James’s Park in London. It wasn’t always gloriously sunny though, with sea fog a particular issue earlier in the week. The sea fog was most prevalent around Irish Sea coasts, with highs of just 8C on some of the protruding coastlines.

The weekend brought a change to a colder mobile westerly weather type for the UK, introducing some heavy showers to northwestern parts, and some fairly heavy rain, strong winds and even some hill snow to Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England on Sunday. That said, most other areas enjoyed some pleasant weekend sunshine, even if conditions did feel a bit fresher than previous days.

So, how is the forecast for the rest of April and early May shaping up? Well, at this stage, it looks like the week ahead will bring some fine and dry weather for many places, with some pretty warm conditions developing early in the week across southeastern parts of the UK. Towards the end of the week, there is some uncertainty in the detail of a potential transition to a cooler northwesterly wind.

Further ahead, a generally more unsettled theme looks the most likely outcome for the UK as a whole. The wide range of weather types forecast to affect the UK over the next few weeks is typical of any UK spring, but the exact detail of the forecast as we move into early May is a little elusive at the time of writing.

Read on to find out the details.

Monday 13 April—Sunday 19 April
Warm weather to return – for a time

Any remnants of the wet and windy weather that affected central and northern parts of the UK through the course of Sunday should readily clear to the east early on Monday. High pressure is then expected to take control of the weather over much of the UK for at least the first half of this week. Plenty of dry and bright weather is anticipated for eastern, central and southern areas of the UK, with the warmest day likely to be Wednesday. In fact, Tuesday and Wednesday temperatures will probably peak into the low 20s across East Anglia and southeast England. Northwestern areas of the UK, most notably Northern Ireland and western Scotland, are likely to have a different feel though, with some wetter, windier and cooler conditions envisaged here from time to time.

Frosts are probable during the overnight periods under the clearer skies that will usually be found towards the east, resulting in a large temperature range for many locations over the course of a typical 24 hour period this week. Large diurnal temperature ranges are in fact a typical feature of spring weather.

As the week draws on, low cloud and sea fog may well become an issue for southwestern and southern coasts. There will also be a slight risk of a few showers moving across the Channel into southern parts at times.

As we head towards the end of the working week, a weak cold front will slowly and erratically move southeast across the northern half of the UK, introducing some cooler, showery conditions. Southern areas are likely to remain on the warm side though, but will perhaps turn slightly cloudier.

As we move into the weekend, the predictability of the atmosphere starts to become rather limited. At this stage though, the most likely outcome is for a good deal of dry weather, but with a developing northwesterly breeze resulting in a slightly cooler feel. That said, some southern and particularly southwestern areas may well hang on to some warm, albeit showery, conditions with a stiff easterly breeze.

Monday 20 April—Sunday 26 April
Plenty of April showers on the cards

The most likely scenario for the start of this period is that an area of high pressure will bring a fair amount of dry and bright but relatively cool weather to many central and northern and central areas of the UK. Southern parts may well be on the periphery of a continental low though, which could bring some cloudier, milder and showery conditions for a time.

Thereafter, it looks as if conditions will tend towards being on the unsettled side at times, with forecast models suggesting that Atlantic weather systems will sweep in from the west, bringing showery and windy spells, followed by drier and clearer interludes. As is typical for the time of year, should the clearer interludes occur at night, frosts can be expected. The combination of showery spells and overnight frosts makes for fairly typical spring conditions here in the UK. The best chance of any drier and warmer weather will always be towards the southeast.

Monday 27 April—Sunday 10 May
An uncertain start to May

By weeks three and four of any weather forecast, the level of certainty in detail drops away markedly. This week’s forecast for the beginning of May is no exception, with forecast computer models diverging significantly, to the point where no real distinct signal is suggested for any given weather type. That said, some forecasting tools are hinting at the possibility of some further showery conditions affecting northwestern parts of the UK at times, and the chance that temperatures will vary quite significantly by day and night. These factors would suggest that we are in for a further spell of typically vernal conditions across most of the UK. Of course, we will keep you posted on any developments in the forecast here at BBC weather.

Next week

Any sign of some mid-May warmth? Find out next week.

Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 20 April

Monthly Outlook

End

*Europe Severe Weather Warnings*

EU-150413White:
Missing, insufficient, outdated or suspicious data.

Green:
No particular awareness of the weather is required.

Yellow:
The weather is potentially dangerous. The weather phenomena that have been forecast are not unusual, but be attentive if you intend to practice activities exposed to meteorological risks. Keep informed about the expected meteorological conditions and do not take any avoidable risk.

Orange:
The weather is dangerous. Unusual meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Damage and casualties are likely to happen. Be very vigilant and keep regularly informed about the detailed expected meteorological conditions. Be aware of the risks that might be unavoidable. Follow any advice given by your authorities.

Red:
The weather is very dangerous. Exceptionally intense meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Major damage and accidents are likely, in many cases with threat to life and limb, over a wide area. Keep frequently informed about detailed expected meteorological conditions and risks. Follow orders and any advice given by your authorities under all circumstances, be prepared for extraordinary measures.

European Storm Forecast Experiment

The European Storm Forecast Experiment is an initiative of a team of European meteorologists, and students in meteorology, and serves as a platform for exchange of knowledge about forecasting severe convective storms in Europe and elsewhere.

showforecast.cgi

S

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 13 Apr 2015 06:00 to Tue 14 Apr 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 Apr 2015 01:40
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for parts of Belarus and Ukraine mainly for severe convective wind gusts and a chance of tornadoes.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Loyalty Islands/ Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) 120300Z POSITION near 20.7S 166.7E, moving ESE at 18 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120415 0905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Solo

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone SOLO

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 11 issued 0110 UTC Sunday 12 April 2015

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone SOLO

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am April 12 1 20.3S 166.0E 165
+6hr 6 am April 12 tropical low 21.1S 167.4E 195
+12hr 12 pm April 12 tropical low 22.1S 169.1E 220
+18hr 6 pm April 12 tropical low 23.1S 171.0E 250
+24hr 12 am April 13 tropical low 24.2S 173.3E 280
+36hr 12 pm April 13 tropical low 26.3S 178.1E 340
+48hr 12 am April 14 tropical low 28.4S 176.9W 400
+60hr 12 pm April 14 tropical low 31.9S 170.8W 485
+72hr 12 am April 15 tropical low 39.3S 161.5W 570

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

Z

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 12/0138 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.3S 166.0E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

SOLO IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS CYCLONE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES INTO A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SST. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LLCC WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH SUPPOSED
LLCC ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES FROM EDGE YIELDS DT=2.0, MET AND PAT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS IT.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 22.1S 169.1E MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 24.2S 173.3E MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 26.3S 178.1E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 28.4S 176.9E MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TC SOLO UNLESS IT RE-INTENSIFIES.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh2315 s12

 https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/23P_112332sams.jpg

WTPS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 20.2S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 165.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 22.3S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 24.8S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 166.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
FULLY EXPOSED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM KNES. ADDITIONALLY, NUMEROUS NEARBY 120000z SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE, INCLUDING STATIONS 91582 AND 91579, WITH
A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOTS REPORTED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CURRENTLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS) IS
STEADILY INCREASING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE REGION
ARE 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER, TC SOLO WILL SOON REACH SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS. FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 18 KNOTS AS TC
23P TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 15 FEET.
//
NNNN

TSR SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Apr, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SOLO (23P) currently located near 20.2 S 165.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 12/0100 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3
SOUTH 166.0 EAST AT 120000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.3S 166.0E AT 120000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
30 KNOTS BY 120600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.1S 169.1E AT 121200 UTC
AND NEAR 24.2S 173.3E AT 130000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL GALE WARNING ON TC SOLO UNLESS IT
RE-INTENSIFIES.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Fairdale, Chicago (IL) tornado kills at least 1, 11 others injured – Published 100415 2010z (GMT/UTC)

At least one person was killed in a northwest suburb of Chicago after a devastating tornado touched down Thursday evening with damage reported in several counties.

The small town of Fairdale, located in DeKalb County, was leveled by the tornado with fire officials confirming at least one person was killed. “The whole town was gone,” said Daniel Prothero, who arrived at the scene shortly after the storm. “It was one of the worst things I’ve ever seen in my life. It was heartbreaking.” Rockford Fire Department division chief Matthew Knott said seven people in various stages of injuries were transported to local hospitals, but he expected that number would change throughout the night as crews continued to search the area. “This town is absolutely devastated by the tornado,” Knott said, noting roughly every structure in the town was damaged by the system. Crews were still working to determine the extent of the damage and were searching for survivors as of 10:30 p.m. Thursday.

Friday, 10 April, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

Update

One resident of a tornado-damaged town in northern Illinois says he ignored an early warning on his cellphone about the impending twister. Sixty-year-old machinist Al Zammuto of Fairdale tells The Associated Press he has received similar warnings before but they have never amounted to anything. Moments after the message arrived, his windows exploded and he took cover. He says he couldn’t believe his eyes when he stepped outside. He says the town looked “like a landfill” and that people were in total shock. Authorities in the tiny community roughly 80 miles northwest of Chicago say one woman died and about 11 others were injured when at least one tornado touched down Thursday evening.

Friday, 10 April, 2015 at 16:57 UTC RSOE

US (Okelahoma): Multiple tornadoes across OK leave at least 1 person dead in Sand Springs & at least 20 injured – Published 270315 1505z (GMT/UTC)

Multiple tornadoes hop-scotched across the state Wednesday leaving at least one person dead in Sand Springs and at least 20 people treated at metro hospitals, four with serious injuries.

Damage in Sand Springs from the tornado (Credit NWS)

Damage in Sand Springs from the tornado (Credit NWS)

  •   The National Weather Service has rated the Sand Springs tornado as an E-F 2. That means it had winds of up to 135 MPH.
  • Classes resume today in Sand Springs and Tulsa schools.
  • The Governor toured the damage area. FEMA expected today.
  • PSO reports only 200  customers are  still without power.

A Norman man also died in a single-vehicle accident during the storm, but police could not confirm whether the wreck was weather-related.

Moore schools are closed Thursday as district officials survey damages. Western Heights schools are also closed. According to the school’s website: “Due to storm damage around our north side schools, we are canceling school Thursday, March 26.”

The National Weather Service in Norman confirmed a tornado touched down about 6:35 p.m. in Moore at SW 4 and crossed Interstate 35 near the Warren Theatres, the area where the May 20, 2013, tornado left 25 people dead. The weather service described the tornado as “weak” and lasting briefly. Baseball-size hail and heavy thunderstorms bombarded the metro area for several hours.

In the Norman fatal accident, a pickup driver died near the 2900 block of E Robinson. The pickup was traveling east on Robinson when it left the road and struck a utility pole. The identity of the driver was withheld Wednesday night, pending notification of family.

Across the state, two tornadoes west of Sands Springs resulted in the death of at least one man in the River Oaks Mobile Home Park. Moore Public Schools announced on its Facebook page that classes were canceled Thursday because of damage across the district. The extent of the damage was not known late Wednesday, according to a district spokesman, but officials expect roof damage, blown-out windows and power outages. An update about the state of the buildings is expected Thursday. Southgate Elementary received extensive damage to its roof.

At least 20 people were treated at local hospitals for everything from bumps and bruises to lacerations suffered in the storm, said Lara O’Leary, EMSA spokeswoman. A University of Oklahoma Medical Center spokeswoman said the hospital received eight patients – four suffered serious injuries and were admitted to the trauma center.

Debris lined streets and hung from trees in south Moore shortly after the storm passed through. Metal carports lay crumpled in the road and wrapped around fences and sheds, and the jagged stumps of trees snapped in half by the strong winds pointed at the dark sky. Sirens filled the evening air as neighbors stood on their front porches, surveying the damage which included one house with a torn-off roof and several others with damage.

At the Furr’s Fresh Buffet, a cafeteria along Interstate 35 in Moore, about 20 customers huddled together in the walk-in coolers as a tornado came close. “It blew a roof out less than a mile away from us,” said manager R.J. Garza. “We just felt the vibration. Once the sirens went on, we sprung into action.” Integris Canadian Valley Hospital in Yukon received the largest amount of wind damage of the Integris hospitals, said Brooke Cayot, Integris Health Systems spokeswoman. The building lost power and was operating on a generator Wednesday night.

Between 500 and 600 people took shelter at Integris Baptist Medical Center, and more than 600 took shelter at Integris Southwest Medical Center. Moore police Sgt. Jeremy Lewis said significant damage was reported from Santa Fe over to Janeway and from SW 4 up to NW 6. Numerous homes in that area lost roofs or had significant structure damage, he said.

A few blocks to the south, one of the three KOMA towers on SW 4 still stood. Just to the east, the steeple of the Moore Church of the Nazarene lay in its front yard. National Weather Service could not confirm how many tornadoes touched down but there were media reports of tornadoes landing in Oklahoma City, Yukon and Norman.

More than 36,000 people lost power in the Oklahoma City metro area due to the weather, according to Oklahoma Gas and Electric. Customers at Taco Bueno, 1109 N Santa Fe in Moore, hid in the walk-in freezer, the same freezer other customers took cover in during the May 20, 2013, tornado. “Afterwards, we started making food by candlelight,” said Olga Ramierez, the district manager.

Friday, 27 March, 2015 at 04:38 (04:38 AM) UTC RSOE

Related:

Grateful Oklahomans salvage belongings after killer storm .

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

More about tornadoes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado

Sand Springs Tornado Red Cross Relief Drive

Tornado_slider-4

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2015/03/27/News_Release_-__Red_Cross_Tornado_Relief_Fundraiser.pdf

Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm BAVI / BETTY(1503) 170600Z nr 15.3N 135.4E, moving WNW at 13 knots (JMA) – Updated 170315 0820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Bavi (1503)(03W)/ “BETTY” in Philippines

…BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT….NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

wp201503_sat_anim BAVI 17

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1503-00 BAVI 17

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15031709

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 17 March 2015

<Analyses at 17/06 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N15°20′(15.3°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW280km(150NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N15°35′(15.6°)
E133°40′(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N16°05′(16.1°)
E131°55′(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity –
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°30′(16.5°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 17 March 2015 Satellite Image 
betty 15031700 bettysat 15031700

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BETTY” (BAVI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 17 March 2015

The Tropical Storm {BAVI} east of Bicol Region will enter The Philippine Area Of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon and will be named “BETTY”.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
1,530 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.4°N, 136.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: 24 hour (Tomorrow morning):
1,030 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
48 hour (Thursday morning):
640 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
72 hour (Friday morning):
270 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
No Public Storm Warning Signal

Estimated rainfall amount is from 2.5 – 7.5 mm per hour (light – moderate) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

The Tropical Storm is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM today.

 11  a.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

errorTrack1 BAVI 17
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170235
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

…TROPICAL STORM BAVI WEAKENING…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.3N 135.8E

ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST…290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.8 EAST…MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WESTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES…MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0315 BAVI 17

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_162332sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 170300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170000Z — NEAR 15.2N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 136.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 15.6N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 15.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 170600

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1503 BAVI (1503) 998 HPA
AT 15.3N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.6N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.1N 131.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.5N 129.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTPH RPMM 170000
TTT GALE WARNING 01

AT 0000 17 MARCH TROPICAL STORM [BAVI] {1503} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Further warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone PAM 17P CAT3 151500Z POSITION nr 34.2S 178.8E, moving SE at 20 Kts (JTWC) – Updated 150315 1448z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 17P (PAM)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201517_sat_anim Pam 15

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

New Zealand

Issued at 12:54am Monday 16 Mar 2015 (Local time)

UPDATE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM

At midnight Sunday tropical cyclone Pam was situated about 450km to the northeast of Auckland and 450km to the north of East Cape. It has already brought 70mm or rain to parts of Gisborne and 140 to 150 kilometer an hour wind gusts to exposed parts of Auckland and Northland.

It is expected to lie about 150km east of East Cape (northern Gisborne)by midday Monday,then move away from the New Zealand coastline towards the Chatham Islands.Strong southeast winds and rain are expected over much of the North Island today, along with extremely large seas about the east coast.Wind gusts of 160 km/h or more are possible about the eastern Bay of Plenty and northern parts of Gisborne.Winds of this strength are likely to cause damage to trees and powerlines and could lift roofs and make for hazardous driving conditions.A burst of heavy rain accompanies these winds, with 180-220 mm possible about the Gisborne ranges.Please refer to the latest severe weather warnings and watches issued by MetService for more information. The total combined waves (sea and swell)generated by cyclone Pam are expected to rise to 7-8m around the northern New Zealand coastline and even up to 9m around the northern Gisborne coast.
For any further information go to: http://www.metservice.com/national/home
The next update to this blog will be around midnight Sunday 15 March.
For further information please contact:
Duty Meteorologist 044700815
+++++++++++++

Cyclone Pam – Latest update 1am Monday 16th March

HORDUR THORDARSON, METSERVICE METEOROLOGIST

Sunday 16 March 2015 1:00am

Category 3 Cyclone Pam was lying near 34S 178.5E at midnight, or about 450 kilometres northeast of Auckland and 450 kilometres north of East Cape on a track to the south-southeast as shown on the image below.

Track

The effects of Cyclone Pam are already being felt in some areas. A wind gust to 150 kilometres per hour was observed near Kaeo in Northland and a gust of 144 kilometres an hour was observed at Channel Island between Coromandel Peninsula and Great Barrier Island this evening. Rain is becoming heavy in Gisborne and and 70mm have already accumulated in some areas there.

Rain radar at 11pm Sunday
Rain radar at 11pm Sunday

Pam is expected to be reclassified early this morning and will from then on be considered an extra tropical cyclone.

Infra red image at 11pm Sunday
Infra red image at 11pm Sunday

Why will it be re classified? The reason for this is that the nature of the system changes. A tropical cyclone derives its energy from latent heat released in strong deep convection. Warm moist air over a warm sea surface rises, condenses, warms further and continues to rise. This is the energy that intensifies and maintains a tropical cyclone. Once the cyclone moves south out of the tropics and over cooler waters this energy source decreases. Normally this will lead to a slow weakening of the system.

There is however a new energy source that becomes available to the storm as it moves out of the tropics. This energy comes from the difference between hot and cold air. If there is a large temperature difference over a relatively short distance this can be a powerful source of energy that re-energises the storm as it moves out of the tropics.

The main differences between a tropical cyclone and an extra tropical cyclone are:

Tropical Cyclone                                                Extra tropical cyclone

No fronts                                                             Fronts

Winds max close the centre                           Wind maximum well away front the centre

Driven by latent heat release                         Strong temperature gradients

Reclassification does not mean that “Pam” no longer poses any threat. Extremely strong wind gusts, heavy rain and phenomenal waves are still expected, and details can be found in http://www.metservice.com/warnings/home as well as in http://blog.metservice.com/ or http://www.metservice.com/national/home

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1715 pam 15

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_151132sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 151500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 33.3S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3S 178.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 37.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 34.2S 178.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND LIMITED CORE CONVECTION, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THIS IS CONFIRMED
WITH A 151246Z GPM IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM TAKING ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS IT BECOMES FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone PAM (17P) currently located near 33.3 S 178.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201517P pam 15

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING

ZCZC 387
WHNZ41 NZKL 150626
HURRICANE WARNING 246
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: SUBTROPIC AND FORTIES
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM 950HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0 SOUTH 177.
4 EAST AT 150600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 32.0S 177.4E AT 150600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 70
KNOTS BY 151800 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 160600 UTC.
PHENOMENAL SEA EASING TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 320 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 280 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 35.6S 179.9E AT 151800 UTC
AND NEAR 38.4S 177.6W AT 160600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 243.

NNNN

.Further warnings here:

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (NT): Tropical LOW 2: Tropical cyclone impact between Port Hedland & Northwest Cape possible from Thursday – TCWC Perth – Published 100315 1553z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low 2

Tropical cyclone impact between Port Hedland and Northwest Cape possible from Thursday – TCWC Perth

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

QLD NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 8:40 pm WST Tuesday 10 March 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 3.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical cyclone impact between Port Hedland and Northwest Cape possible from Thursday.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Port Hedland to Coral Bay.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 14.3 degrees South, 116.3 degrees East , 720 kilometres north of Karratha and 880 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth .
Movement: east southeast at 8 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are not expected on Tuesday or Wednesday but may develop between Karratha and Exmouth on Thursday afternoon. If the system tracks a little more to the east then gales may develop as far east as Port Hedland.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne districts as the system approaches and may lead to flooding. Please refer to the latest Flood Watches and Warnings for more details ¿ http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 10 tropical low 14.3S 116.3E 110
+6hr 2 am March 11 tropical low 14.7S 116.5E 220
+12hr 8 am March 11 tropical low 15.1S 116.6E 240
+18hr 2 pm March 11 tropical low 15.6S 116.7E 260
+24hr 8 pm March 11 tropical low 16.2S 116.6E 280
+36hr 8 am March 12 1 17.7S 116.2E 315
+48hr 8 pm March 12 2 19.4S 115.4E 335
+60hr 8 am March 13 2 21.1S 114.4E 370
+72hr 8 pm March 13 2 22.9S 113.8E 400

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Further warnings here:

METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

MASCARENES ISLANDS/MADAGASCAR: Tropical Cyclone HALIBA (15S, 11) 09/1200Z nr 21.8S 55.2E, moving ESE 8 Kts – Updated 090315 1640z (GMT/UTC)

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM (12) (RSMC La Reunion)

 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (HALIBA) (JTWC)

MASCARENES ISLANDS SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM

 – (RSMC La Reunion)

si201516_5day 

si201516_sat_anim

ZCZC 549

ZCZC 549
WTIO30 FMEE 091222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA)
2.A POSITION 2015/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/10 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/03/12 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/13 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/03/14 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0-.
HALIBA HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z AND PROBABLY REACHED ITS INTENSITY PEAK (MAX W
INDS AT ABOUT 45KT), TEMPORARILY SHOWING A RAGGED EYE AT 08Z .
AFTER THAT, COULD PATTERN HAD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A SEVERE IMPACT OF THE
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN A WEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND EXPERIENCING BY THAT TIME SOME DEEP STRUCTURE CHANGES WITH A LARGER AND MORE ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME ITS SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH AN ONGOING EXTRATROP PROCESS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

La Reunion

B_q3FKVU0AE3dbt.jpg large

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1615.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/16S_090530sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 21.3S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 53.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 22.2S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.1S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.0S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 26.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 29.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET
SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HALIBA IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TC 16S TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
INCREASING VWS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 091221
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone Marcia 13P 20/2000 EST nr 24.3S 150.9E, moving SSE at 18 km/h – BoM – Updated 200215 1238z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Marcia 13P

Warning zone: Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera

Watch zone: None.

Cyclone Marcia downgraded to Intensity Category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia. – BoM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201513_sat_anim

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

M

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Marcia

Issued at 7:51 pm EST Friday 20 February 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 39.

QLD track

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Cyclone Marcia downgraded to category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera
.

Watch zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 8:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.3 degrees South, 150.9 degrees East , 65 kilometres southwest of Gladstone and 40 kilometres east northeast of Biloela .
Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Marcia has weakened to a category 1 cyclone, and is moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia district while continuing to weaken. It is expected to weaken below cyclone strength tonight.

Destructive winds are no longer expected at Biloela. Damaging wind gusts to about 120 km/h are still possible over the next couple of hours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current south of Double Island Point and inland to the southern Burnett and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h are expected about the coast and adjacent inland between Rockhampton and Double Island Point tonight, including Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced between Gladstone and Double Island Point with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide, even though the cyclone is inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible.

Dangerous surf is also expected.

Heavy rainfall is already occurring about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gladstone and Double Island Point, and is expected to continue tonight and Saturday morning as the cyclone moves south. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:

People between Rockhamton and Double Island Point and adjacent inland areas including Biloela, Monto and Mundubbera should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 pm.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm February 20 1 24.3S 150.9E 30
+6hr 2 am February 21 tropical low 25.1S 151.2E 30
+12hr 8 am February 21 tropical low 25.9S 151.7E 55
+18hr 2 pm February 21 tropical low 26.6S 152.2E 80
+24hr 8 pm February 21 tropical low 27.3S 152.9E 100
+36hr 8 am February 22 tropical low 28.3S 154.2E 135
+48hr 8 pm February 22 tropical low 28.7S 155.4E 170
+60hr 8 am February 23 tropical low 28.8S 156.5E 210
+72hr 8 pm February 23 tropical low 28.4S 157.4E 245

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday

 Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued at 7:51 pm EST on Friday 20 February 2015

Headline:
Cyclone Marcia downgraded to category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 8:00 pm EST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.3 degrees South 150.9 degrees East, estimated to be 65 kilometres southwest of Gladstone and 40 kilometres east northeast of Biloela.

Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

 

Tropical cyclone Marcia has weakened to a category 1 cyclone, and is moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia district while continuing to weaken. It is expected to weaken below cyclone strength tonight.

 

Destructive winds are no longer expected at Biloela. Damaging wind gusts to about 120 km/h are still possible over the next couple of hours.

 

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current south of Double Island Point and inland to the southern Burnett and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 km/h are expected about the coast and adjacent inland between Rockhampton and Double Island Point tonight, including Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera.

 

Abnormally high tides will be experienced between Gladstone and Double Island Point with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide, even though the cyclone is inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible.

 

Dangerous surf is also expected.

 

Heavy rainfall is already occurring about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gladstone and Double Island Point, and is expected to continue tonight and Saturday morning as the cyclone moves south. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:
People between Rockhamton and Double Island Point and adjacent inland areas including Biloela, Monto and Mundubbera should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 pm.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday 20 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

sh1315

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/13P_200532sams.jpg

 

 

WTPS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
200600Z — NEAR 23.8S 150.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 150.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 25.4S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 26.9S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 28.1S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 28.6S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL

REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
13P MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 19/2200Z AND HAS STARTED TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS DRAGGED ACROSS LAND. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GLADSTONE, AUSTRALIA, ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE EYE
FEATURE HAS DISSOLVED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS STARTED TO OPEN WHILE THE REMAINING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
STARTED TO WARM AND BREAK APART. THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE UNRAVELING NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA AND DUE TO THE
DECREASING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECREASING
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS, AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, IS
BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EAST AND PRESS ON THE SYSTEM. TC MARCIA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DUE
TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AND THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CORAL SEA NEAR BRISBANE AS A WEAK (<30 KNOTS) SUBTROPICAL LOW WHILE
THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINAL (24 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT FAVOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0618UTC 20 FEBRUARY 2015

GALE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia was centred over land within 10
nautical miles of
latitude twenty three decimal eight south (23.8S)
longitude one hundred and fifty decimal seven east (150.7E)
Recent movement : south at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 65 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within area 23S 151E to 23S 153E to 26S 155E to 26S 153E

FORECAST
NW/NE winds 34 to 47 knots with rough to very rough seas. Winds easing below 34
knots by 202000UTC.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 20 February: Within 30 nautical miles of 25.4 south 151.3 east over
land
At 0600 UTC 21 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 26.9 south 152.4 east over
land

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 20 February 2015.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Further warnings here:

METAREA X
METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (NT): Ex-Tropical Cyclone ‎LAM 12P has been downgraded to a tropical low. – BoM – Updated 200215 1140z (GMT/UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone LAM 12P

Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End. – BoM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201512_sat_anim

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

IDA00041

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam

Issued at 4:48 pm CST Friday 20 February 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 67
Track

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam at 4:30 pm CST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South, 133.8 degrees East , 75 kilometres southwest of Bulman and 90 kilometres northeast of Beswick .
Movement: south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:

Squally thunderstorms are likely to continue over the Top End.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low-lying areas and cause river rises over the central Top End. Locally very heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding is possible. A Flood Watch for the Arnhem and Carpentaria Coastal Rivers has been issued.

The STORM TIDE risk for coastal residents between Milingimbi and the Queensland border will continue to ease, however ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES may still occur at the time of local high tides for the next day or two.

No further issues of this product.

Refer to Severe Weather Warning.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents of Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Gapuwiyak and Ramingining in shelter that it is now safe to leave shelter. Shelters will remain open where necessary and residents are advised to limit movement to essential travel only and proceed with care around affected communities.

Damage has occurred to power lines in affected areas and residents should STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

The Territory Controller advises that heavy rain has resulted in swollen waterways, creeks and drains and residents should stay away from these areas.

Details:

Time (CST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 5 pm February 20 tropical low 14.1S 133.8E 55
+6hr 11 pm February 20 tropical low 14.6S 133.4E 40
+12hr 5 am February 21 tropical low 15.2S 133.0E 65
+18hr 11 am February 21 tropical low 15.8S 132.4E 85
+24hr 5 pm February 21 tropical low 16.3S 131.8E 110
+36hr 5 am February 22 tropical low 17.3S 130.4E 145
+48hr 5 pm February 22 tropical low 18.4S 129.1E 180
+60hr 5 am February 23 tropical low 19.5S 127.6E 220
+72hr 5 pm February 23 tropical low 20.4S 125.7E 255

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 pm CST Friday

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITYTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 67
Issued at 4:15 pm CST on Friday 20 February 2015

Headline:
Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
The Cyclone WARNING for inland parts of the central Arnhem District has been cancelled.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam at 4:00pm CST
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 133.8 degrees East, estimated to be 75 kilometres southwest of Bulman and 90 kilometres northeast of Beswick.

Movement: south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour.

Hazards:
Squally thunderstorms are likely to continue over the Top End.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low-lying areas and cause river rises over the central Top End. Locally very heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding is possible. A Flood Watch for the Arnhem and Carpentaria Coastal Rivers has been issued.

The STORM TIDE risk for coastal residents between Milingimbi and the Queensland border will continue to ease, however ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES may still occur at the time of local high tides for the next day or two.

Refer to Severe Weather Warning.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents of Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Gapuwiyak and Ramingining in shelter that it is now safe to leave shelter. Shelters will remain open where necessary and residents are advised to limit movement to essential travel only and proceed with care around affected communities.

Damage has occurred to power lines in affected areas and residents should STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

The Territory Controller advises that heavy rain has resulted in swollen waterways, creeks and drains and residents should stay away from these areas.

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area. Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Next Advice:
No further advices will be issued for this system.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

JTWC track

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/12P_191732sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
191800Z — NEAR 12.6S 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 134.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 13.5S 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 14.5S 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 15.8S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 16.9S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 134.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
12P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY
RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM GOVE AIRPORT AND WARRUWI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THESE RADARS ALSO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATION STATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERALL LAND INTERACTION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. TC LAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
SOUTHWESTERN TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH WEST BASIN. AS THE HIGH
TRACKS TO THE WEST, EXPECT TC 12P TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERRITORY, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREGORY NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Further warnings here:

METAREA X
METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm 1502/ 02W HIGOS 072100Z POSITION nr 11.8N 157.6E, moving N at 6 knots (JTWC) – Published 070215 2150z

Tropical Storm HIGOS (1502, 02W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1502

TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 7 February 2015

<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N11°25′(11.4°)
E157°25′(157.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°05′(12.1°)
E156°30′(156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°40′(12.7°)
E154°50′(154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°35′(13.6°)
E152°55′(152.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0215.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02W_071732sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 11.6N 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 157.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 12.4N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 12.9N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 13.4N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.3N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 15.8N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 16.7N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 157.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane Web Page

070215 2003Z

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots.
Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas.
Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA’s GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN - Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots.<br />
   Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas.<br />
  Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA's GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

ZCZC 538
WTPQ50 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 11.4N 157.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 12.1N 156.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 091800UTC 12.7N 154.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 101800UTC 13.6N 152.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 111800UTC 15.0N 151.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
120HF 121800UTC 16.0N 149.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =
NNNN

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 11.4N 157.4E MARSHALLS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 12.1N 156.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 12.7N 154.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.6N 152.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

More warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Indian Ocean: Very Intense Tropical cyclone EUNICE (8 & 09s) 300600Z near 18.4S / 68.0E, moving SSE at 8 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – Published 300115 0800z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice (8)(09S)

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0915.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09S_292330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300000Z — NEAR 17.7S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 67.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 19.0S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 20.7S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 21.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 22.1S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 25.9S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 31.4S 97.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 31NM EYE. A 292311Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE WELL DEFINED CENTRAL CORE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE SHARP CONSOLIDATED NATURE OF
THE CYCLONE. TC EUNICE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY BELOW A POINT SOURCE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION, TC
09S IS TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
GRADIENT PROLONGING ITS EXPOSURE TO SSTS GREATER THAN 26C. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ENABLING TC EUNICE TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24 TC 09S WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE NER REORIENTS TO THE NORTH.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 09S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 123
WTIO20 FMEE 300608
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2015 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 30/01/2015 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EUNICE) 900 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 68.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH
ERN SEMI CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/130 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CE
NTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTEN
DING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 115 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTE
NDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, E
XTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
19.5 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 130 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL
NNNN

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

Australia (WA): Tropical Low moving off W Kimberley coast unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth) – Published 190115 1123z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 5:43 pm WST Monday 19 January 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Kimberley low unlikely to become a tropical cyclone. Warnings cancelled but the system will be closely monitored.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: No active warning areas.

Watch zone: No active watch areas.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near centre 28 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 83 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South, 121.9 degrees East , 45 kilometres southwest of Broome and 420 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour .

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Hazards:

Sustained gales are not expected in coastal communities but areas of heavy rain are likely over the west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details – http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

ALL CLEAR: People in, near or between Cape Leveque and Mardie are advised that damaging winds are no longer expected.

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 5 pm January 19 tropical low 18.2S 121.9E 75
+6hr 11 pm January 19 tropical low 18.6S 120.7E 85
+12hr 5 am January 20 tropical low 19.2S 119.3E 100
+18hr 11 am January 20 tropical low 19.8S 117.6E 120
+24hr 5 pm January 20 tropical low 20.6S 115.7E 140
+36hr 5 am January 21 tropical low 21.6S 113.3E 175
+48hr 5 pm January 21 tropical low 22.6S 111.9E 215
+60hr 5 am January 22 tropical low 23.1S 110.9E 260
+72hr 5 pm January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.#

Western Australia Warnings Summary

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/index.shtml?ref=hdr

JTWC

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S122E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0952UTC 19 JANUARY 2015

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0900 UTC a tropical low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal two south (18.2S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal nine east (121.9E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 15 knots
Central pressure: 1003 hPa
The tropical low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

AREA AFFECTED
Nil.

FORECAST
Gales are no longer expected over marine areas

REMARKS

No further warnings will be issued unless the system intensifies.

WEATHER PERTH

There are other warnings at METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mauritius/La Reunion: Tropical Storm CHEDZA 06S 181200Z: 22.9 S / 52.3 E, moving SE 8 at knots(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 180115 1520z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA 06

….. HEAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS. – RSMC LA REUNION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

chedza_sat

RSMC LA REUNION

chedza trajectoire

chedza sat anim

Bulletin Réunion
JOURNEE DU DIMANCHE 18

La Tempête tropicale CHEDZA était située à 16h à 360km a l Ouest-Sud-ouest des côtes réunionnaises et se déplace vers le sud-est à 15km/h.

Vigilance houle cyclonique d’ouest de 2.5m à 3 m sur les cotes Ouest et Sud en cours.

Flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest humide.
NUIT DU DIMANCHE 18 AU LUNDI 19
Les précipitions deviennent éparses sur l Est en début de nuit pour devenir plus fréquentes dans le Nord de l’île approximativement de St Leu à St Benoit en passant par le chef lieu en seconde partie de nuit .

Le vent de secteur Nord reste soutenu plus particulièrement sur les façades Nord-Ouest et Est ( 60 à 70km/h) et dans les hauts de la Réunion avec des rafales pouvant atteindre les 80 à 90 Km/h
LUNDI 19
Pris dans le flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest des averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest et Nord, ailleurs comme dans le sud sauvage le ciel est plus clément avec de belles éclaircies.

Au fil des heures l’instabilité se réactive et les nuages se développent dans l’intérieur.

Ces deniers débordent ensuite sur le sud sauvage où des averses sont alors attendues.

Le vent reste soutenue il souffle principalement sur les côtes Ouest et Est avec des rafales de 70 à 80km/h. Sur les hauteurs exposées, les rafales sont proches de 80 km/h.

La mer est agitée à forte au vent, une vigilance houle cyclonique d’Ouest est en cours de Champs-Borne à la Pointe de la Table en passant par St Leu, houle comprise entre 2. et 2.5 mètres soit 5 m pour les hauteurs maximales . Une houle de Sud-Est de 2.5 à 3 est egalement de mise sur les cotes Est et Sud .
MARDI 20
Poussées par un vent d’Ouest, quelques averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest, ailleurs c’est globalement du soleil. Au fil des heures, les nuages se développent dans

l’intérieure de l’ile et des débordement nuageux concernent le sud de la Réunion ou quelques averses peuvent se produire

Vent d ouest modéré avec des rafales sur les cote Sud-Ouest.

houle de Sud Ouest de 2 a 2.5M de la Pointe de Aigrette à la Pointe de la Table.
MERCREDI 21
Belle journée, la masse d’air s’assèche le soleil l’emporte. les développement nuageux de l apres-midi restent limites.

vent de Sud-Ouest faible à modéré le matin, tournant Sud en fin de journée.

Houle d ouest sud ouest de 2 à 2.5m

Reunion Bulletin
DAY SUNDAY 18

Tropical Storm CHEDZA was located at 16h to al 360km west-south-west coast of Reunion and moves southeast at 15km / h.

Vigilance westerly cyclonic swell from 2.5m to 3m on South West Coasts and in progress.

RSS wet North-West.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY 18 19

The rush become scattered over the East early night in order to become more common in the north of the island approximately St Leu in St Benoit through the main town in the second part of the night.

North wind sector remains particularly strong on Northwest and east facades (60 to 70km / h) and the heights of the Meeting with gusts to 80 to 90 km / h

Monday 19

Caught in the flow of North-West showers are possible early in the day on the west facade and north as elsewhere in the wild south the sky is partly cloudy skies with.

As the hours instability reactivates and clouds develop in the interior.

These funds then spill over into the wild south, where rainfall is then expected.

The wind remains strong it blows mainly on the west and east coast with gusts of 70 to 80 km / h. On the exposed heights, the bursts are near 80 km / h.

The sea is rough with strong wind, vigilance cyclone swell West is being Champs Terminal Point Table via St Leu, swell between 2 and 2.5 m or 5 m for the maximum heights . A Southeast swell from 2.5 to 3 is also placing on the east and south coasts.

Tuesday 20

Driven by a west wind, some rain showers are possible early in the day on the west facade, it is also generally the sun. The hours, the clouds develop in

interior of the island and cloudy infinity concern southern Meeting or a few showers may occur

West of moderate wind with gusts on the South West Coast.

Southwest swell 2 to 2.5M of Pointe Heron Pointe de la Table.

Wednesday 21

Beautiful day, the mass of air dries the sun wins. development of cloudy after noon are limits.

Southwest winds weak to moderate in the morning, turning south in the afternoon.

Houle southwest of West 2 to 2.5m

Bulletin du 18 JANVIER à 16H45 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature des systèmes dépressionnaires tropicaux présents sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE EX-BANSI.
Pression estimée au centre: 960 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 25.8 Sud / 78.3 Est.
(vingt cinq degres huit sud et soixante dix-huit degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 2340 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST.
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 46 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 33.0 Sud / 90.9 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 38.1 Sud / 104.1 Est.
————————————————-
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHEDZA.
Pression estimée au centre: 982 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 22.9 Sud / 52.3 Est.
(vingt deux degres neuf sud et cinquante deux degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 360 km au secteur: OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 15 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 25.3 Sud / 53.1 Est.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 27.8 Sud / 54.6 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 21/01 à 16h locales, par 30.6 Sud / 57.9 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 22/01 à 16h locales, par 35.4 Sud / 63.1 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 23/01 à 16h locales, par 45.5 Sud / 78.5 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 23h local

Bulletin January 18 at 4:45 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical storm systems present on the southwestern Indian Ocean.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BANSI.
Estimated central pressure 960 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time 25.8 South / 78.3 East.
(twenty five eight degrees south and seventy-eight degrees is three).
Distance from Reunion coast: 2340 km to the sector: EAST SOUTHEAST.
Displacement: EAST SOUTHEAST, 46 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 33.0 South / 90.9 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 38.1 South / 104.1 East.
————————————————-
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA.
Estimated central pressure 982 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time: 22.9 South / 52.3 East.
(twenty two nine degrees fifty-two degrees south and three east).
Distance from Reunion coast 360 km sector: WEST-SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTHEAST 15 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 25.3 South / 53.1 East.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 27.8 South / 54.6 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 21/01 at 16h local by 30.6 South / 57.9 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 22/01 at 16h local by 35.4 South / 63.1 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Centre positioned on 23/01 at 16h local by 45.5 South / 78.5 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next newsletter to 23h local

ZCZC 453
WTIO30 FMEE 181306

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CHEDZA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 52.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 350 SW: 190 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/21 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/22 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/01/23 12 UTC: 45.5 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS UNCONVENTIONAL AND MENTIONED INTENSITY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK TECHNIQ
UE THAT IS NOT ADAPTED ANY-MORE FOR THIS KIND OF SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIG
H PRESSURES.
IN THE WAKE OF CHEZA, IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS EXIST AND OCCUR LOCALLY H
EAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS.
CHEDZA KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARDS TOWARDS A TRANSIENT MID
-LEVEL TROUGH.
ON THIS PATH, FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS LOW TO MODER
ATE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD ALLOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

No warning

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 181240

WTIO22 FMEE 181240
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BANSI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 78.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 430 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 620 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 710 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
29.1 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
33.0 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S 161200Z POSITION nr 21.6 S / 66.4 E, moving SE 16 knots ((RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 160115 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

si201505_5day

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bansi

KML Google Earth

WTIO31 FMEE 161237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20142015
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 926 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SO: 640 NO: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 150
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2015 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
24H: 17/01/2015 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2015 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2015 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
60H: 19/01/2015 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
72H: 19/01/2015 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2015 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 21/01/2015 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5+ ET CI=6.5+
LA SIGNATURE DVORAK S’EST DEGRADEE DEPUIS LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC
UN OEIL DE PLUS DE 45 MN DE DIAMETRE. L’IMAGE MICRO-ONDE F15 DE 1026Z
MONTRE UNE EROSION DU MUR DE L’OEIL COTE OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE MEME
SI LE CI DVORAK EST A 6.5+, L’INTENSITE DU VENT MAX A ETE RETROGRADEE A 110
KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE CES ELEMENTS. BANSI CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER
REGULIEREMENT ET RAPIDEMENT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST.
BANSI DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L’EST-SUD-EST DANS LE
COURANT DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU PLONGER VERS LE SUD-EST.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME PASSE MAINTENANT AU SUD DE LA
DORSALE D’ALTITUDE ET UN TALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SE RAPPROCHE
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. PAR CONSEQUENT LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT ET EN RAISON DE LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS 25S, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACQUERIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES HYBRIDES POST-
TROPICALES DIMANCHE, PUIS EXTRATROPICALES A PARTIR DE LUNDI OU MARDI.
JUSQUE MARDI, LES VENTS NE VONT S’ATTENUER QUE LENTEMENT AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION. MERCREDI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT

ZCZC 570
WTIO30 FMEE 161237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 926 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SW: 640 NW: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/17 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/17 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.5+
THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EYE
DIAMETER MORE LARGE THAN 45 NM. 1026Z F15 MW PICTURE SHOWS AN ERODED
EYE-WALL WESTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, CI IS AT 6.5+ DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINT, BUT INTENSITY OF THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED AT
110 KT. BANSI CONTINUES TO MOVE REGULARLY AND RAPIDLY ON A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
TONIGHT BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD.
WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRA-TROPICAL FROM
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNTIL TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP RAPIDLY.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh0515

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_160530sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 20.0S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 65.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 23.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 24.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 25.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 31.6S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES TC BANSI HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AS THE EYE HAS
CONTRACTED DOWN TO 32NM AS THE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AND DEFINED. HOWEVER, A 160442Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE OBSERVED IN THE MSI ANIMATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP
WHILE KNES INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE AS WIDELY DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TC 05S
IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BE ACCELERATED BY TAU 36
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72
WHICH WILL COMPLETE ETT. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk

See:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201505S.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 151223

WTIO20 FMEE 161228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI) 926 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 200 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 300
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 345 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 420 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VIII_S

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Philippines: Tropical Storm 23W Jangmi/ Seniang 300900Z 10.0N 121.5E, moving W 15km/h(9kt) – Published 301214 1115z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Jangmi

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

TS 1423 (JANGMI)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 December 2014
<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N10°00′(10.0°)
E121°30′(121.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 30/21 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N9°40′(9.7°)
E120°05′(120.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/23W_300532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300600Z — NEAR 10.4N 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 121.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 9.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 9.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 8.9N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 8.3N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 7.1N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 6.4N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 5.6N 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 120.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT
WAVEN HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z,
302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN

News Reports

Death toll from Philippine storm Jangmi rises to 30

Published on Dec 30, 2014 5:01 PM
Residents help each other out from their inundated neighbourhoods after rains spawned by a tropical storm, locally known as Seniang, caused flooding in Misamis Oriental on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao on Dec 29, 2014. — PHOTO: AFP

MANILA (AFP) – At least 30 people were killed in landslides and flash floods as tropical storm Jangmi slowly crossed the southern and central Philippines, dumping heavy rain for a second day on Tuesday, officials said.

Rivers burst their banks and submerged villages in floods up to “neck-deep” while hillsides crashed onto homes and highways, officials said.  Some residents in vulnerable areas ignored evacuation warnings, Stephany Uy-Tan, mayor of the town of Catbalogan in Samar province, told DZMM radio.

“The rains were really strong and people thought the storm won’t be too strong based on the news,” she said.

Twelve people were killed after a landslide buried two vans on a mountainside highway in Catbalogan, she said.  “Rescuers report hearing voices from the rubble,” she said.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 310600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1423 JANGMI (1423) 998 HPA
AT 10.2N 121.6E SULU SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 09.8N 120.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 09.4N 118.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 08.4N 115.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 06.8N 110.8E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone 04S Kate 280900Z POSITION near 13.8S 92.3E, moving SW at 04 Knots (JTWC) – Updated 281214 0955z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 04S Kate

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta

IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 08:08 WIB 28/12/2014

Siklon Tropis KATE

Kondisi tanggal 28/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 13.1LS, 92.8BT (sekitar 1470 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 2 knots (4 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 80 knots (150 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 29/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 14.7LS, 92.2BT (sekitar 1640 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : Selatan barat daya, kecepatan 4 knots (8 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 80 knots (150 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 30/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 17.0LS, 90.9BT
Arah Gerak : Selatan barat daya, kecepatan 5 knots (10 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 60 knots (110 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 31/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 19.4LS, 87.9BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya, kecepatan 7 knots (12 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis KATE memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Bengkulu hingga barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten, dan Samudera Hindia selatan Banten hingga Jawa Tengah.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian lebih dari 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Samudera Hindia barat Sumatera.

IDJ21030
Meteorology and Geophysics
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (the Centre) in Jakarta

INFORMATION BULLETIN TROPICAL CYCLONE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING issued by CENTRE JAKARTA
In: 8:08 PM 12/28/2014

Tropical Cyclone KATE

Conditions dated 28.12.2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 13.1LS, 92.8BT (about 1470 km southwest of Bengkulu)
Motion direction: west, the speed of 2 knots (4 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 80 knots (150 km / h)

Prediction 24 hours, date 12/29/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 14.7LS, 92.2BT (about 1640 km southwest of Bengkulu)
Motion direction: South-west, the speed of 4 knots (8 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 80 knots (150 km / h)

Prediction 48 hours, date 12/30/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 17.0LS, 90.9BT
Motion direction: South-west, the speed of 5 knots (10 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 60 knots (110 km / h)

Prediction 72 hours, date 12/31/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 19.4LS, 87.9BT
Direction Motion: Southwestern, speed 7 knots (12 km / h) moving away from the territory of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 50 knots (95 km / h)

IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
KATE tropical cyclone impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:
– A wave with a height of 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters west of Bengkulu to Lampung, southern Sunda Strait, southern waters of Banten, and the Indian Ocean to the south Banten Central Java.
– A wave with a height of more than 3 meters likely to occur in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
280600Z — NEAR 13.6S 92.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 92.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 14.3S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 15.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 16.3S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 17.5S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 20.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 92.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PULSATING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN SIZE AND SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES
TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280542Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED SEVERAL SMALL TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING
INTO AN EYE FEATURE ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN SIZE. A 280230Z ASCAT PASS WAS
UTILIZED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS
SATELLITE DATA, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON AN EVALUATION OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS THE LAST INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS RE-EVALUATED AND
INCREASED UP TO 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC KATE
IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT
TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER
TAU 72. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND DECEASING OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36 AND
THEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR AND COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROUGH
INTERACTION WITH THE STR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA10 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_PERTH / 0642

WTAU05 APRF 280642
IDW23100
40:3:2:24:14S093E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0642UTC 28 DECEMBER 2014

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal eight south (13.8S)
longitude ninety two decimal five east (92.5E)
Recent movement : southwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 971 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre easing to 75 knots by 0600 UTC 29
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 28 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.6 south 92.2 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 29 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.7 south 91.8 east
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 28 December 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 27 Dec 2014 1433z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-08-jan-2015-1203z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 03S BAKUNG 122100Z POSITION nr 10.3S 91.0E, moving WSW at 8knots (JTWC) – Updated 121214 2123z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S BAKUNG

(Warning: Images not updating despite being correct on edit, click on most images to go to source. Check comments for interim updates,)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source) 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0315.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03S_121730sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 122100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121800Z — NEAR 10.2S 91.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 91.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 10.5S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 10.7S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 10.7S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 10.7S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 10.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 11.1S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 11.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 91.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION OBSCURING A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 121557Z ASCAT AND 1556 METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND MORE INTENSE
(40 KNOT) WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR LOOP, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND WIIX AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC BAKUNG IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE,
ALLOWING TC 03S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 72, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SYSTEM TURNING EQUATORWARD
PRIOR TO ITS NORTHERLY DIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (WITHOUT
GFS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

 

NASA’s Hurricane Web Page

SO. INDIAN OCEAN *Full Update* NASA’s Watches Tropical Cyclone Bakung Over Open Ocean
Bakung is moving in a westerly direction over the open waters of the S. Indian Ocean and Aqua captured an image of the sea storm.
STORY: http://www.nasa.gov/c…/goddard/bakung-southern-indian-ocean/

Bakung is moving in a westerly direction over the open waters of the…
nasa.gov

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA VIII_N
METAREA VIII_S

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 11 Dec 2014 1343z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here:  https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-26-dec-2014-0830z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 1422 22W 082100Z POSITION nr 14.0N 120.4E, moving WNW 05 knots(JTWC) – Updated – 081214 2130z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM 1422 (HAGUPIT) – JMA

(Now lower than CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) – JTWC

Philippines beware!!

(Warning: Images not updating despite being correct on edit, click on most images to go to source. Check comments for interim updates,)

Japan Meteorological agency

1422

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 8 December 2014

<Analyses at 08/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°50′(13.8°)
E120°50′(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°05′(14.1°)
E119°00′(119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°05′(14.1°)
E116°55′(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°30′(13.5°)
E112°30′(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N11°40′(11.7°)
E108°10′(108.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2214.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/22W_081732sair.jpg

 

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 14.0N 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 120.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 14.2N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.1N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 13.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 13.5N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 12.2N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 10.1N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 120.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Dec, 201418:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT (22W) currently located near 14.0 N 120.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Storm Tracker Map

Western Pacific Weather

Find A Shelter in Your Area, Typhoon Hagupit Interactive Map (link)

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Ruby) in Southern Luzon | Afternoon Video Update

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) is now moving near the province of Batangas and could make landfall near the town of Laiya according to PAGASA. While Signal #3 warnings have been lowered by the agency, Signal #2 is still in effect in many areas, including Metro Manila. Bands of heavy rains and strong winds will

Read More…

Tropical Storm 22W HAGUPIT (Ruby) continues its trek across the Philippines. Manila braces for impact.

Monday morning in the WPAC region and tropical storm HAGUPIT, named “Ruby” by the Philippine’s MET service, PAGASA, continues to weaken and work its way to the NW across the Philippine archipelago this morning. The latest information at 08/03z from the JTWC is as follows: Position:              13.4N, 122.4E Location:             126 nm (233km) SE of Manila, Philippines

Read More…

Severe Tropical Storm Hagupit wobbling over the Philippines

Hagupit continues to track west across the Philippines Monday morning bringing wide spread heavy rainfall to southern Luzon and Northern Visayas.  At least two deaths have been officially reported at the time of this update. We have also seen unconfirmed reports in social media but we will wait for casualty reports from the NDRRMC here.

Read More…

Typhoon Hagupit / Rudy Live Webcast

Feel free to ask questions or comments in this live update prior to landfall of Typhoon Hagupit..

Below are some useful “Stay Alive” tips if you wanna ride out a Typhoon:

1. Pruning of large and tall trees will make you safe from damage, reinforce vulnerable ones to the ground if necessary. Keep them away from power lines;

2. Make sure roofing are sturdy to withstand powerful wind and rain. Ensure doors and windows are water tight;

3. Clear your property from potentially dangerous debris becoming airborne during high wind;

4. Free water ways from debris to avoid backing up flood waters towards river estuaries in case of torrential rains associated with the system;

5. Stay clear from the immediate coasts and low-lying areas to avoid being caught up by raging waters. Watchout for landslips if you live near steep elevations;

6. Secure food stocks, adequate potable water supply and medications. Do not forget to safely shelter dogs and other beloved animal companion indoor. Be humane enough. You don’t wanna keep them cold outside in a storm;

7. Keep emergency numbers at hand and orient family members what to do before, during and after the storm. Charge handheld radios, cellular phones and extra battery before electricity is cut from the grid;

8. Listen to emergency broadcast via battery-powered portable radio. Lights would definitely go out during the storm, so you wanna make sure you got emergency lights and torch lights in handy;

9. Keep calm and pray for the Typhoon to come to past safely in your vicinity. We’ll ride out the storm safely.

NEWS

Philippine capital braces for storm, as Hagupit leaves 27 dead

Typhoon death toll rises after storm tears through central islands flattening homes and toppling trees

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1422 HAGUPIT (1422) 992 HPA
AT 13.8N 120.8E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 14.1N 119.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 14.1N 116.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.5N 112.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 11.7N 108.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W 050900Z POSITION 12.0N 128.7E, moving W at 07kt (JMA) – Updated – 051214 1232z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/12/06/philippines-typhoon-hagupit-1422-22w-060900z-position-12-0n-126-3e-moving-w-at-07kt-jma-updated-061214-1126z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

YAP/ Palau/ Philippines: Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 1422 22W 020900Z 6.2N 144.2E, moving W at 20kt (JMA) – Published – 021214 1247z (GMT/UTC)

Philippines: Super Typhoon HAGUPIT 1422 22W 041500Z POSITION 11.1N 130.9E, moving WNW at 12kt (JTWC) – Updated – 041214 1415z (GMT/UTC)

More here; http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3u2

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ Vietnam: Severe Tropical Storm SINLAKU (1421/21W) 291500Z 13.5N 109.7E, moving WNW at 10 knots (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 1756z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm SINLAKU (21W)

(Warning: Images are not updating despite being updated correctly – click on most images to visit image source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1421

STS 1421 (SINLAKU)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 29 November 2014

<Analyses at 29/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°30′(13.5°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 30/03 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°00′(14.0°)
E107°20′(107.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 30/15 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°55′(13.9°)
E105°00′(105.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2114.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21W_291132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 13.3N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 110.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 13.7N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 13.7N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 109.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z,
300300Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Nov, 2014 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SINLAKU (21W) currently located near 13.3 N 110.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1421 SINLAKU (1421) 990 HPA
AT 13.5N 109.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 14.0N 107.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 13.9N 105.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are other messages here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Nicaragua/ Honduras: Tropical Storm HANNA 271500Z near 14.5N 83.2W, moving WSW at 6 knots (NHC) – Published 271014 1602z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm HANNA

…TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS JUST OFF OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA…
…FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL…NHC

THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch

000
WTNT34 KNHC 271303
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

…TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS JUST OFF OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA…
…FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.5N 83.2W
ABOUT 35 MI…60 KM NNE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR LATITUDE 14.5
NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST. HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE HANNA MOVES INLAND…AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL…HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES…ACROSS HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1301

WTNT24 KNHC 271301
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1500 UTC MON OCT 27 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 83.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 0SE 60SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 83.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.0N 83.9W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.3N 84.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 83.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BERG=

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1400

FZNT01 KWBC 271400 AAA
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV…UPDATED FOR PART 2
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
WASHINGTON DC 1030 UTC MON OCT 27 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 27
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 28
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 29

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.WITHIN 120 NM SW AND S OF A LINE FROM 64N52W TO 59N44W TO
57N35W AREA OF NW TO N WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 60N TO 65N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W AREA OF NW
TO N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 41N51W 996 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 240 NM SE AND E OF A
FRONT FROM LOW CENTER TO 32N57W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N44W 996 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM
41N TO 52N E OF 44W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N36W 989 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW INLAND 47N61W 984 MB MOVING NE 05 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 480 NM NE…780 NM SE…AND 660 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 48N57W 985 MB. WITHIN 480 NM
NE…780 NM S…AND 600 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N41W 989 MB. WITHIN 600 NM S AND 720 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 23 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 44N65W
TO 39N68W TO 35N73W AREA OF SW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 49N TO 52N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W AND OVER FORECAST WATERS
FROM 39N TO 46N E OF 39W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 65N61W 1020 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N72W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N65W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FZNT02 KNHC 271349 HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON OCT 27 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 27. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200
UTC TUE OCT 28. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 29.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM HANNA NEAR 14.5N 83.2W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
27 MOVING W-SW OR 250 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM E
SEMICIRCLE…60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS TO 11
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA INLAND NEAR 14.0N
83.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT AND 75 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA INLAND NEAR 13.3N
84.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 25N64W THEN STATIONARY TO
20N70W. N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 48W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN SW TO W SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N51W TO 22N65W THEN
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N70W. N OF 30N E OF FRONT TO
45 W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN W SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N42W TO 24N53W. N OF 30N E
OF FRONT TO 38W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. N OF
29N W OF FRONT TO 53W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW
SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 59W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC TROPICAL WAVE S OF 20N ALONG 54W MOVING W AROUND 5 KT.
FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 38W AND 52W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N58W TO 18N59W TO 08N60W.
N OF 16N WITHIN 300 NM E OF WAVE SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 16N E OF 57W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 23N61W TO 17N63W. WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 19N TO 22N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25
KT…EXCEPT SE WINDS E OF TROUGH. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Metarea IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Oman /Pakistan /India /Arabian Sea: Tropical Cyclone NILOFAR 04A 271500Z near 15.2N 62.2E, moving WNW at 2 knots (JTWC) – Updated 271014 1502z (UTC/GMT)

Tropical Cyclone Four (04A)/ VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM ‘NILOFAR’

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

https://i0.wp.com/www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/graphics/tcacgraphic.png

More here:

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en#

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0414.gif

WTIO31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (NILOFAR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (NILOFAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 15.0N 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 62.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 15.7N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 16.7N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 17.6N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 18.7N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 20.5N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 22.7N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 24.9N 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (NILOFAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED WHILE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
STEADY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS EYE FEATURE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75
KNOTS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT NOW
RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 04A HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MODIFYING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CREST
THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36 AND THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS WESTERN
INDIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DRY AIR INTRUSION COULD
HAMPER THESE POSITIVE EFFECTS. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS INDUCED
BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH
WILL BE ADDED BY LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, SOME OF THE MODELS (NAMELY COAMPS-TC AND
EGRR) HAVE BECOME ERRATIC AFTERWARDS AS THE TRACKERS HAVE STARTED TO
LOSE VORTEX IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION OF
STRONGER VWS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH COULD INDUCE A
FASTER THAN EXPECTED WEAKENING. THIS ERRATIC TRACK DOES APPEAR
ERRONEOUS AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. DESPITE THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
FASTER THAN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TO OFFSET THESE ERRATIC TRACKS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA9 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1059

WWPK20 OPKC 271059 CCA
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR MET AREA IX
VALID FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING FROM 0700UTC DATED 27-10-2014
BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
PART -I THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘NILOFAR’ OVER CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN
SEA HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED INTO SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM, MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0300 UTC OF 27TH OCTOBER, 2014 NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 N AND LONGITUDE 62.00 E, ABOUT 1230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KARACHI AND 880 KM EAST-
SOUTHEASTOF SALALAH. IT WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS AND WOULD MOVE INITIALLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS
AND CROSS NORTH GUJRAT AND ADJOINING PAKISTAN COAST BY 31ST OCTOBER.
PART – II: THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY
INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS. SEA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL.
PART -III: FORECASTS:

SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA
I. WIND SE/SW’LY 10-15KTS GUSTING 20KTS NORTH OF 24ºN.
E/NE’LY 17-21KTS GUSTING 27KTS SOUTH OF 24ºN.
II. WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM RAIN
IN SOUTHERN SECTOR
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA MODERATE/ROUGH.
SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMAN
I. WIND SE/NE’LY 10-15KTS GUSTING 20KTS NORTH OF 24oN.
NE’LY 21-27 GUSTING 33 KTS SOUTH OF 24ºN
II. WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM
RAIN IN SOUTHERN SECTOR
III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA MODERATE/ ROUGH OCCASSIONALY VERY ROUGH
IN SOUTHERN SECTOR.
SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE,
12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE)
I. WIND SE’LY 17-21KTS GUSTING 27KTS NORTH OF 18ºN AND EAST OF 65°E.
SE/NE‘LY 28-33 KTS GUSTING 47 KTS NORTH OF 18ºN AND WEST OF 65ºE.
SW/SE’LY 63-77 KTS GUSTING 93 KTS SOUTH OF 18ºN AND EAST OF 63°E.
CYCLONIC 63-77 KTS GUSTING 93 KTS SOUTH OF 18ºN AND WEST OF 63°E
II. WEATHER WIDE SPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSHOWER.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN SHOWERS.
IV. STATE OF SEA VERY HIGH/PHENOMENAL.
SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN
I. WIND NE/SE’LY BECMG NW’LY 10-15 KTS WEST OF 50°E,
NW’LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20 KTS EAST OF 50°E.
II. WEATHER FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN HAZE.
IV. STATE OF SEA SLIGHT/MODERATE.

Metarea IX

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 27 Oct 2014 1422z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/11/21/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-21-nov-2014-1217z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bermuda/Canada/Atlantic: Hurricane GONZALO CAT1 181500Z 36.8N 61.7W, moving NNE at 22 knots (NHC) – Updated 181014 1643Z

Hurricane GONZALO

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND…NHC

AFTER MAKING A DIRECT HIT ON BERMUDA LAST EVENING, HURRICANE
GONZALO IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING..
...CHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 181455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

…GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.8N 61.7W
ABOUT 355 MI…575 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI…1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH…41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH…41 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 90 MPH…150
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES…335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB…28.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST…BERMUDA…AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

==================================================

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin
HURRICANE GONZALO
IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BERMUDA
Advisory #25, 12 pm Sat, Oct 18, 2014
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) has passed.
Current Position: 36.8N 61.7W approx. 310 nm NNE of Bermuda
Recent Movement: NNE or 30 degrees at 22 kt
Central Pressure: 966 mb / 28.52 in
Max Winds: 80kt gusts 100kt
In line with NHC updates, Tropical Update Bulletins(TUB) are normally issued every 6 hours. Intermediate advisories may be issued every 3 hours when a tropical watch or warning is in effect (every 2 hours when radar has identified a storm centre). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.
Hurricane Track Information
WOCN31 CWHX 181145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:56 AM ADT SATURDAY
18 OCTOBER 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR HURRICANE GONZALO.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

AFTER MAKING A DIRECT HIT ON BERMUDA LAST EVENING, HURRICANE
GONZALO IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 35.8 NORTH 62.5 WEST.

ABOUT 430 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 157 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 37 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE TRACK COULD RANGE FROM ST.
MARY’S BAY TO ABOUT 150 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE.
THIS REPRESENTS A RANGE OF ABOUT 200 KILOMETRES WITH ABOUT A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STORM CENTRE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN
AVALON PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AVALON PENINSULA NORTH, BEGINNING TONIGHT.THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE HAS ISSUED RAINFALL WARNINGS
FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA.

A. WIND.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AVALON
PENINSULA NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 50
GUSTING TO 80 KM/H.

B. RAINFALL.

MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AS A RESULT
OF GONZALO’S PASSAGE. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL FROM GONZALO IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. IN THE AREAS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN, RAINFALL RATES OF 25 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE IN
THE 5 TO 8 METRE RANGE AND COULD POSSIBLY EXCEED 10 METRES.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND, WAVES OF 4 TO 6
METRES ARE LIKELY.

OF CONCERN IS THAT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA IS
NEAR DAWN SUNDAY WHICH COULD BE THE APPROXIMATE TIME OF GONZALO’S
PASSAGE. HIGH COASTAL WATER LEVELS AND HIGH WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG
SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLOODING MAINLY DUE TO WAVE ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME.

ALSO, THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE OCEAN
SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 METRES BEGINNING TONIGHT AND BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
METRES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED REGARDING THE WAVES AND
HIGH WATER LEVELS.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THIS STORM WILL HAVE HEAVY IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MARINE
AREAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS
OF 12 METRES ARE LIKELY OVER SOME OFFSHORE MARINE AREAS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM’S TRACK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT WAVES COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 18 METRES
FROM THE LAURENTIAN FAN INTO THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS, WITH LESSER
WAVE HEIGHTS FURTHER NORTH.

MARINE WARNINGS SUMMARY:

NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS: HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS.
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST, EAST COAST – CAPE
ST. FRANCIS AND SOUTH, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FUNK ISLAND BANK – SOUTHERN HALF.

MARITIMES WATERS: A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAURENTIAN FAN – SOUTHEASTERN HALF. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
LAURENTIAN FAN – NORTHWESTERN HALF AND BANQUEREAU – SOUTHEASTERN
HALF. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE –
SOUTHEASTERN HALF AND BANQUEREAU NORTHWESTERN HALF.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/HATT/MERCER/FOGARTY
_______________________________________________
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Oct, 2014 9:00 GMT

Hurricane GONZALO (AL08) currently located near 34.7 N 63.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Birmingham (52.5 N, 1.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Cardiff (51.5 N, 3.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Lands End (50.1 N, 5.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    Hull (53.8 N, 0.1 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Weymouth (50.6 N, 2.4 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Torquay (50.3 N, 3.7 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Southampton (50.9 N, 1.4 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Cambridge (52.2 N, 0.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 181454

WTNT23 KNHC 181454
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT……. 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT…….150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 220SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT… 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT…150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 51.3N 38.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT… 90NE 240SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 53.5N 23.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 240SE 320SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 181603

FZNT01 KWBC 181603
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CCODE/2:31:04:11:00/AOW+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 18
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 19
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20

.WARNINGS.

..HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 36.8N 61.7W 966 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18
MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 22 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE…220 NM SW QUADRANT
AND 320 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 47 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GONZALO NEAR 47.0N
50.5W 980 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE…180 NM SE AND 120 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM NW…240 NM NE…420 NM SE AND 360 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS
30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT. ALSO WITHIN 300 NM NE…540 NM SE
AND 660 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 25 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GONZALO E OF AREA NEAR 53.5N
23.5W 993 MB. FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 56N56W 992 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 660 NM NE…420 NM NE
AND 780 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N45W 991 MB. WITHIN 540 NM NW AND 240 NM
NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N37W 993 MB. WITHIN 720 NM NW AND 420 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 45N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 50N57W 991 MB. WITHIN 660 NM S
SEMICIRCLE AND 480 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 58N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH HURRICANE GONZALO IN WARNINGS SECTION
ABOVE FROM 31N TO 43N BETWEEN 49W AND 70W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH POST-TROPICAL
GONZALO IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.FROM 31N TO 66N E OF 46W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 52N E OF 41W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 55N E OF 40W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 63N TO 66N E OF 38W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 57N TO 66N E OF 42W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 14 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 43N TO 47N
BETWEEN 53W AND 59W AND FROM 48N TO 56N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 53N BETWEEN 43W AND 57W
AND FROM 49N TO 54N E OF 42W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 55N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W.

.HIGH 41N45W 1027 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N38W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 20.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 29.5N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
12 TO 14 FT. N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 31N74W TO 20N60W TO 20N35W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF LINE 31N59W TO 13N35W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE AND N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE OF LINE 31N54W TO 20N35W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
================================================

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 20 Aug 2014 1930z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/10/26/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-26-oct-2014-0751z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Typhoon Vongfong 19W 121000Z 29.4N 127.4E, moving N at 12 knots (JMA)

Typhoon Vongfong

(Tropical Storm Vongfong 19W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1419

TY 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 10:50 UTC, 12 October 2014

<Analyses at 12/10 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°25′(29.4°)
E127°25′(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL700km(375NM)
<Estimate for 12/11 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°35′(29.6°)
E127°25′(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL700km(375NM)
<Forecast for 12/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°05′(30.1°)
E127°55′(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area NE330km(180NM)
SW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 12/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°00′(31.0°)
E129°00′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE370km(200NM)
SW310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 13/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°00′(32.0°)
E130°55′(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE370km(200NM)
NW330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 13/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N33°30′(33.5°)
E133°25′(133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE390km(210NM)
NW330km(180NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1914.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19W_120532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120600Z — NEAR 28.9N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 127.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 30.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 33.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 36.2N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 40.0N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 127.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,
130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VONGFONG (19W) currently located near 28.9 N 127.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP31 RJTD 120900
WARNING 120900.
WARNING VALID 130900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1419 VONGFONG (1419) 965 HPA
AT 29.3N 127.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 31.0N 129.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 33.5N 133.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 990 HPA
AT 32N 169E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 32N 169E TO 32N 173E 30N 177E.
COLD FRONT FROM 32N 169E TO 26N 162E 22N 152E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 152E TO 23N 145E 26N 140E 30N 135E 31N
129E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 38N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 39N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1002 HPA
AT 39N 160E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 56N 139E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 54N 145E 50N 147E.
COLD FRONT FROM 56N 139E TO 53N 141E 47N 139E 44N 134E 42N 129E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 33N 133E 34N 137E 30N 140E 27N 140E 27N 137E 28N 134E 33N
133E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 39N 145E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 48N 179E ESE 15 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1419 VONGFONG (1419) 965 HPA AT 28.8N 127.1E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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