New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone GITA 192100Z position near 36.5S 168.1E, moving SE 28kt (JTWC) – Updated 19 Feb 2018 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone GITA 09P

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

(See updates in comments below)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) Warning #44 Final Warning
Issued at 19/2100Z

sh091810

09p_191800sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
191800Z — NEAR 35.5S 167.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.5S 167.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 39.6S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 43.3S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 36.5S 168.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM
NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE
SOUTH DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GITA IS
NOW ASSESSED AS FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL. DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ASYMMETRIC LLCC STRUCTURE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE VWS AND LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE JET HAS HELPED MAINTAIN THE STRONG CORE WINDS DURING THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55
KNOTS BASED ON THE LARGE SWATH OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS IN A 191125Z
ASCAT PASS. TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST, WITH A VERY GRADUAL DISSIPATION TREND. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated14

New Zealand

metservice-logo

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0301 UTC 19-Feb-2018

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

TC Gita was analysed near 31S 162E at midday today (Monday), outside
the tropics, and is likely to be re-classified into an extra-tropical
cyclone this evening. It is expected to then move towards New Zealand
during the next 24 to 48 hours.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC TUE 20-FEB-2018
Tropical Cyclone Gita is likely to be re-classified this evening and
is forecast to track southeast towards New Zealand as a deep
extra-tropical cyclone.

Meanwhile, a low analysed near 18.0S 157.7W at midday today (Monday),
northwest of the Southern Cook Islands, remains in an unfavourable
environment during the next 3 days and therefore has only very low
chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone during the next 3 days.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC FRI 23-FEB-2018
No significant lows are expected during the outlook forecast period.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Tue 20-Feb-2018

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2018

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Feb, 2018 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm GITA is currently located near 35.5 S 167.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). GITA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Zealand
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
New Plymouth (39.1 S, 174.1 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Wellington (41.3 S, 174.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Greymouth (42.5 S, 171.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Christchurch (43.5 S, 172.6 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hastings (39.6 S, 176.8 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Hamilton (37.8 S, 175.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201809p9201809p_09

Probability of tropical storm winds to 12 hours lead:

201809p_1f

Other

sp201809_5day9

(Image: @underground)

Two Unusual Tropical Cyclones Affect Australia and New Zealand

Dr. Jeff Masters February 19, 2018, 12:10 PM EST

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Marine Weather Bulletin for Subtropic

Area 25S to 40S, western boundary from 40S 163E to 29S 170E then to 25S 170E, eastern boundary 170W.Issued by MetService at 7:54am Tuesday 20 Feb 2018

Forecast valid to 1:00am Wednesday 21 Feb 2018: Former cyclone Gita near 36S 167E moving southeast 30kt. Southwest of line 40S 175W 34S 180 29S 170E: Clockwise 25kt about Gita, with storms and gales as in warning 340, clearing north of 35S by 201200UTC, broad areas heavy clockwise swell, and poor visibility in areas of rain south of low centre.

Outlook following 72 hours
Ridge near 36S 170W, extending northwest, moving slowly east. Former Cyclone Gita expected near 42S 175E at 201200UTC moving southeast. Southwest of ridge: Northerly quarter 20 to 30kt, turning clockwise about Former Cyclone Gita, with storms, gales and heavy swell near Gita. All gradually easing.

STORM WARNING 340
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and FORTIES
AT 191800UTC
Over waters east of western boundary.
Low 976hPa, former Cyclone GITA, near 36S 167E moving southeast 30kt.
1. Within 120 nautical miles of low in western semicircle: Clockwise 50kt easing to 35kt next 6-12 hours.
2. Outside area 1 and within 180 nautical miles of low in northeast quadrant: Clockwise 50kt easing to 35kt next 6-12 hours.
3. Outside areas 1 and 2 and within 240 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 35kt.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 334.

Issued at 7:31am Tuesday 20 Feb 2018

================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Australia (WA) : Tropical Cyclone KELVIN 10S 181500Z position nr 20.6S 122.5E, moving SSE ~5.9kt (BoM) – Updated 18 Feb 2018 1715z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN (10S)

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin continues to weaken and is expected to weaken below cyclone strength on Monday morning. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h will ease over the next few hours – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin

Issued at 11:53 pm AWST Sunday 18 February 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 33.

KELVIN NZ TRACK 18

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin continues to weaken and is expected to weaken below cyclone strength on Monday morning. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h will ease over the next few hours.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Inland areas of the far eastern Pilbara, far northwest North Interior District and adjacent areas of the western Kimberley.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 11:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South, 122.5 degrees East , 125 kilometres north northeast of Telfer and 225 kilometres south southeast of Bidyadanga .
Movement: south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is weakening as it moves inland across the far east Pilbara as a category 2 tropical cyclone. Kelvin will weaken below cyclone strength during Monday morning as it continues to move inland and track towards the south southeast. Gales may persist in the eastern quadrants of the system till Tuesday morning.

Hazards:

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour and very heavy rainfall are likely to be occurring near the centre of the tropical cyclone in the far eastern Pilbara. DESTRUCTIVE winds will ease in the next few hours.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely over remaining parts of the far eastern Pilbara, far northwest North Interior District and adjacent areas of the western Kimberley. The area of GALES will move further inland, possibly as far as Telfer and Parnngurr early Monday morning if the system moves closer than expected. GALES should ease from Monday mid morning as the system weakens below tropical cyclone strength.

DAMAGING WINDS to 100 kilometres per hour may persist to the east of the system once it weakens below tropical cyclone intensity until Tuesday morning.

Heavy rainfall is likely to continue near the system over the far west Kimberley, far east Pilbara and western North Interior during Monday and Tuesday. Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near Telfer and Punmu need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR: People in communities in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Sandfire, including Sandfire are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 11 pm February 18 2 20.6S 122.5E 35
+6hr 5 am February 19 1 21.3S 122.7E 50
+12hr 11 am February 19 tropical low 22.1S 122.9E 70
+18hr 5 pm February 19 tropical low 22.9S 123.1E 95
+24hr 11 pm February 19 tropical low 23.8S 123.3E 120
+36hr 11 am February 20 tropical low 25.5S 123.6E 155
+48hr 11 pm February 20 tropical low 27.1S 124.2E 190
+60hr 11 am February 21 tropical low 28.9S 125.5E 230
+72hr 11 pm February 21 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Monday

ide00135-201802181530

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Kelvin) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 18/0300Z

sh10182

10s_180000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
180000Z — NEAR 19.2S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 121.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 20.1S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 21.4S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 23.0S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 24.7S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 121.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD EYE WALL WITH DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME REVEALS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL INNER EYEWALL NOW POSITIONED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON RADAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 172219Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYAN RING SURROUNDING THE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF EIR
IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171913Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 10S
WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TOP OF TC 10S AS WELL. THIS
RESULTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 10S IS NOW OVER LAND AND SO IS NO
LONGER SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE SSTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE
LAND INTERACTION, TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGH
TAU 12 AS IS COMMONLY SEEN IN THIS REGION. TC 10S WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST AND STEADILY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated12

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN is currently located near 19.2 S 121.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). KELVIN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KELVIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lagrange (18.7 S, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Broome (18.0 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Telfer (21.7 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201810s2201810s_02

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT :

201810s_0g

Current probability of tropical storm winds at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT:

201810s_0f2

Other

si201810_5day2

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WOAU01 AMMC 181157
IDY21000
40:3:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1157UTC 18 February 2018

GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous westerly flow developing from 182100UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 50S090E 50S080E 46S080E 47S086E 50S090E.

FORECAST
Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots developing west of 083E by 182100UTC, and
extending throughout by 190600UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate swell.
================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Vietnam: Tropical Depression SANBA 02W 131500Z position nr 9.2N 122.6E, WSW 15kt (JTWC) – Updated 13 Feb 2018 1522z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression SANBA (02W)

(BASYANG in Philippines)

“BASYANG” HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER DUMAGUETE CITY, NEGROS ORIENTAL AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS SULU SEA – PAGASA

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 02W (Sanba) Warning #20
Issued at 13/1500Z

wp0218102w_131200sair

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
131200Z — NEAR 9.2N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 123.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 9.1N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 9.1N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 9.6N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 10.3N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 11.1N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 11.3N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 122.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated3

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #17
FOR:Tropical Depression Basyang
Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

ISSUED AT:11:00 PM, 13 February 2018

“BASYANG” HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER DUMAGUETE CITY, NEGROS ORIENTAL AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS SULU SEA

  • Scattered to widespread moderate to heavy rains will prevail in the next 24 hours over Palawan and Visayas. Meanwhile, scattered light to moderate with at times heavy rains is expected over Bicol Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the provinces of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi. Residents of these areas must continue monitoring for updates, take appropriate measures against possible flooding and landslides, and coordinate with their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
  • Sea travel remains risky over the seaboards of areas under Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS), as well as the seaboards of Northern Luzon and of Visayas, the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and of Mindanao, and the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon due to the Tropical Depression and the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.
  • Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) elsewhere are now lifted.

 

 

PAGASA Track Satellite Image

 

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “BASYANG” was estimated based on all available data at In the vicinity of Santa Catalina, Negros Oriental (09.3 °N, 123.0 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 60 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West Southwest at 26 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): In the vicinity of Quezon, Palawan(9.1°N, 117.9°E)
  • 48 Hour(Thursday evening):80 km South Southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(10.4°N, 113.7°E)
  • 72 Hour(Friday evening): 430 km West Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(12.0°N, 110.3°E)

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao Impacts of the wind
#1
(30-60kph expected in 36 hrs)
Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo groups of islands Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Bohol, and Cebu Northern section of Misamis Occidental, and northern section of Zamboanga del Norte ->Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
->Light damage to medium to low risk structures
->Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
->Twigs of small trees may be broken.
->Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.

Vietnam

NCHMF

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
Track VN
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

13 Tuesday, February 13, 2018 9.5 125 TS 65 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

13 Wednesday, February 14, 2018 9.2 119 8 65 km/hour
13 Thursday, February 15, 2018 9.5 115.5 8 65 km/hour
13 Friday, February 16, 2018 10.7 112.7 TD 56 km/hour
13 Saturday, February 17, 2018 11 110 Low 28 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 PM Tuesday, February 13, 2018

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression SANBA is currently located near 9.2 N 123.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). SANBA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Bonobono (8.7 N, 117.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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Other

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(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

18021321

WWJP25 RJTD 131200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 966 HPA
AT 59N 165E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA ALMOST STATIONARY.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 1008 HPA AT 39N 162E
MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1010 HPA
AT 40N 118E NORTH CHINA MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 28N 128E EAST 25 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 162E TO 38N 167E 37N 171E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 162E TO 34N 158E 30N 152E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1802 SANBA (1802) 1004 HPA AT 09.2N 123.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 130600

TTT WARNING 9

AT 0600 13 FEBRUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION {SANBA} (1802) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140600 ZERO NINE POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 150600 ONE ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX EAST AND AT 160600 ONE ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

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