MEXICO: Tropical Storm ELIDA (05E) 302100Z 17.4N 104.2W, moving WNW nr 3 knots. TS Warning LAZARO CARDENAS to CABO CORRIENTES (NHC) – Updated 300614 2105z

Tropical Storm ELIDA

…TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES….(NHC)

(Image: wunderground.com) E Pacific Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

MEXICO

https://i0.wp.com/smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/cabos/rad-cabo.jpg

Aviso de Tiempo Severo bg20x2 bg2 h Aviso Ciclón: Pacífico Atlántico

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 301917
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

CORRECTED CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS HEADER

…TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.3N 104.2W
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES
CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK
…THE CENTER OF ELIDA SHOULD BE NEAR BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

RAINFALL…ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
COLIMA AND MICHOACAN…AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER UNKNOWN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151Z JUN 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 17.1N 103.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 103.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 17.9N 104.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 18.2N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 18.1N 104.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 17.9N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 17.8N 105.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 17.6N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 17.6N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 103.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND
011600Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A. JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN 300151Z JUN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
300200). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jun, 2014 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ELIDA (05E) currently located near 17.4 N 104.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

MARITIME

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301510
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERYTHROUGH
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 114.0W OR ABOUT 445
NM…765 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 1500
UTC MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. DOUGLAS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED…BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 112W-117W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 17.3N 103.9W OR ABOUT 120 MILES…195
KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE SAME INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF
ELIDA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERSMIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N94W TO 6N95W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 6N85W TO 5N100W THEN
RESUMES W OF T.S. DOUGLAS FROM 12N117W TO 8N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 81W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 133W-136W.

…DISCUSSION…

AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES MUCH OF THE N
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO
BEYOND 32N118W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N140W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE COVERING MOST OF THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W AND N OF
25N E OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 14N128W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT…ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N108W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. DOUGLAS AND T.S. XXX. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 81W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 17N E OF 125. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL WATERS TODAY…BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT S OF 04N
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. GAP WINDS…

$$
DGS

 

WTPZ25 KNHC 302045
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 104.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Europe: Euro-forecaster Estofex issues Level 2 Storm Forecast for N Italy – Published 290614 1700z

Storm Forecast

Forecast provided by ESTOFEX (Click image to go to source)

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 29 Jun 2014 06:00 to Mon 30 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Jun 2014 04:22
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for N Italy mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Europe mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

The cold front associated with a large amplitude mid level trough from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea is pushing eastward through Italy and central Europe today. Surface level lows reside over southern Scandinavia and northern Italy. Cold airmass thunderstorms are likely over France, Benelux and western Germany. The prefrontal airmass over Italy is moderately unstable due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer with steep mid level lapse rates and 10-12 g/kg moist boundary layer air. Strong winds in mid levels create a favorable kinematic environment for storms.

DISCUSSION

…Italy, southern Austria and western Balkan…

Some regional WRF models predict over 2500 J/kg SBCAPE over the Lgurian Sea. MLCAPE should be 1000-2000 J/kg. This will be capped south of the Po valley. Either way, given the 20 m/s deep layer shear and strong moisture lifting over the south slopes of the Alps triggering of supercells and MCSes is highly probable, with chances of widespread large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. During the evening as the cold front comes through, the model scenario (GFS, WRF) is that some discrete supercells or a linear system will also affect the area south of the Po valley. The area of Austria to Croatia will likely see the strongest moisture lift and largest storms, and can become affected by excessive convective rainfall, at least locally. The PV/dynamic tropopause intrusion acquires a negative tilt at night which might help to keep the storms active for long in the region near Slovenia, although WRF models keep the storms moving. Tornadoes are not ruled out with pre-Alpine 0-1 km shear of 8 m/s and locally higher.

…Hungary, N and E Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania…

Relatively modest MLCAPE should exist in a broad area from Hungary/Austria to the Baltics. The presence of 10-15 m/s deep layer shear could develop persistent and rotating updrafts which can locally release large hail. The frontal convergence zone in the Austrian-Hungarian-Czechian borders region should be the main focus for convective development, another is NE Poland and Lithuania near the occlusion.

…southern Sweden and Norway…

Some instability is present within the low. Low cloud bases and slow cell motion combined with good low-level buoyancy and convergence zones are found mainly over southern Sweden. Such conditions are favorable for spout type tornadoes and funnels.

ESTOFEX FAQ

France: Euro-forecaster Estofex issues Mesoscale Discussion – potential for tornadoes – Published 280614 1638z

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 28 Jun 2014 14:00 to Sat 28 Jun 2014 21:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 28 Jun 2014 14:39
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

…France to Southwestern Germany…

A surface low pressure center lies currently (14Z) at the west coast of France (Bordeaux). A large Atlantic upper trough moves into the region and will provide destabilization of the mid and upper levels, which is needed as 12Z soundings still show inversions at 900 and 450 hPa. A stationary frontal zone is well-defined by thermal gradients and a sharp wind shift (NE/S) running from some 100km north of Bordeaux to Stuttgart approximately.

Observed surface mixing ratios in France vary at 13Z between 10.5 and 13 g/kg with potential temperatures ranging between 26 and 32ーC, the higher values over the Massif Central.
Inserting these values into Bordeaux and Nimes 12Z soundings, the cap can be bypassed in some locations and some 1000 J/kg SBCAPE could be obtained, but MLCAPE will be lower and mixed parcels may have some trouble with the cap.

In fact, satellite shows initiation over northern Massif Central oriented SW-NE and along the front in the west (WSW-ENE). The storms will grow in a strong kinematic environment with large but relatively straight hodographs. Observed Bordeaux 600 hPa wind is 60 kts with 40 kts at 900 hPa. This directly translates into a primary threat of severe convective wind gusts, especially as cold pools join into an MCS. Deep layer shear values of 15-20 m/s and SREH of 150 mイ/sイ initially and over 250 mイ/sイ predicted by GFS at 18Z (SW France) support supercells. 0-1 km shear ranges from 10 m/s in the afternoon to over 15 m/s during the evening (GFS). Together with relatively low LCL (descending to <1000 m in the evening) this underlines potential for tornadoes, and supports bow echoes. Large hail will be possible as well, but the upper level inversion represents a mixed phase region without much buoyancy which could be a limiting factor.

After 18Z the mid level cold front comes in from the west and will likely trigger storms in SW France moving upscale to a somewhat parallel-stratiform MCS over the southeastern quarter of France (this will happen beyond the validity time of this MD).

West Coast Tsunami Threat Being Assessed After 8.0 Alaska Earthquake

Town of , evacuates its 150 residents to shelter after warning, official says.

Tsunami warning for Alaska ends after quake. Wave about 7″ high. Ppl from Adak town gathered on nearby hill during warning – @CBCAlerts 2312utc

CBS San Francisco

(CBS SF) — The threat of a tsunami in California and the west coast was still being assessed Monday afternoon following an 8.0 earthquake off Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, according to officials.

The state Office of Emergency Services said on its Twitter feed that there was no warning or alert for the U.S. West Coast from the Alaska quake.

The National Tsunami Warning Center said coastal areas of Alaska were under a tsunami warning but that the tsunami threat for the Pacific Coast of the U.S. and Canada was still being evaluated.

View original post

Tsunami warning issued after 8.0 earthquake in Alaska

Town of #Adak, #Alaska evacuates its 150 residents to shelter after #tsunami warning, official says. http://cnn.it/1iA3CVJ

Tsunami warning for Alaska ends after quake. Wave about 7″ high. Ppl from Adak town gathered on nearby hill during warning – @CBCAlerts 2312utc

KFOR.com

(CNN) — A tsunami warning has been issued for coastal Alaska following a 8.0-magnitude earthquake located about 15 miles from Little Sitkin Island, Alaska.

The quake had a depth of 71 miles, and was expected to produce a “modest” tsunami, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

View original post

#AKwx #AK #Attu #Nikolski #Aleutians #Coast #Wx #US #News/ #TSUNAMI WARNING

TSUNAMI WARNING: EQ Mag 8 (upgraded) 30 miles NW of Amchitka, Alaska. http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/

Town of , evacuates its 150 residents to shelter after warning, official says.

Tsunami warning for Alaska ends after quake. Wave about 7″ high. Ppl from Adak town gathered on nearby hill during warning – @CBCAlerts 2312utc

UK: Summer Solstice 2014 – Stonehenge – Published 210614 0900z

SUMMER SOLISTICE 2014

Photo: Summer solstice sunrise over the Stonehenge prehistoric monument in Wiltshire, England – @ST0NEHENGE (via breakingnews.com)

AN estimated 36,000 people in the UK have seen the sun rise at Stonehenge on the longest day in the northern hemisphere, with 25 arrested, largely for drugs-related offences.

THE summer solstice has a long tradition of attracting people to monuments such as Stonehenge, where latter-day Druids gather to witness the sun rising on the longest day.

“We are pleased that the solstice celebrations at Stonehenge and Avebury have been enjoyable events for the majority of people attending,” a police spokesman said.

“There were 25 arrests at Stonehenge and two at Avebury which were mainly for drug-related offences.

“This year we estimate 36,000 people visited the stones throughout the night. There is always a small proportion of people who will try to break the law but I am satisfied that this was a successful policing operation.” – ntnews.com.au

Summer Solstice 2014: Stonehenge Druid Explains Traditions and History of Pagan Event

“Summer solstice for Druids is an event that celebrates the cycles of the universe, with traditions dating back thousands of years.

Frank Somers, from the Amesbury and Stonehenge Druids, has been attending summer solstice at Stonehenge for more than a decade.

Speaking to IBTimes UK, he explained: “Druids believe that everything in existence is interconnected. The fundamental belief is that energy, the stuff we’re made of, our spirits, are part of a continuum that makes up the whole universe. We’re both unique individuals and part of something bigger.

“Everything in nature goes in cycle. A big part of the Druid thinking is there’s this cycle called the year, which fundamentally affects everything we do – when we can grow our food and when we have to hide away next to the fire. If you turn up at the changes between the seasons and observe that change, you can become better attuned to those cycles in yourself and you’re a part of them.”

Summer solstice is when the sun is at its highest point and the longest day of the year. Winter solstice is the opposite – marking the shortest day and the sun being at its lowest on the horizon. Both are cause for celebration, Somers said.

“Each season has its positives – winter season is about family and community, and the darkness, with the cold and the wet and the snow – it cleanses the land ready for a new season of growth. The summer is all to come. Even though the days are getting shorter the Earth’s temperature is increasing and you’ve got the whole summer culminating in harvest, which everyone is looking forward to.

“What you’re celebrating on a mystical level is that you’re looking at light at its strongest. It represents things like the triumph of the king, the power of light over darkness, and just life – life at its fullest.”

Stonehenge Druid traditions

Somers explained some of the traditions that take place among Druids on summer solstice. To begin, he said all Druids will want to be under the open sky – most will gather in small groups of family or friends, so those attending ceremonies at sites such as Stonehenge are the “tip of the iceberg”.

However, explaining the significance of the Neolithic site, he said: “Druids that gather at ancient places do it specifically so that they’re part of the continuum with the ancestors. When you do it at Stonehenge, you’re in the same place for the same reasons as people 5,000 years ago – in a place they marked out as special that they picked out to meet up and do these observances. You become part of something much bigger than we are.”

At Stonehenge there is a sunset ceremony for people who arrive on time. Following this, Druids get into a circle to process around the stones three times as a way of acknowledging the sacredness of the site and as a means of introducing themselves.

As morning approaches, Druids find a spot to set up small circles, which is then opened by one person – called casting the circle – who declares it to be a sacred gathering. They then call to the elements, starting with mother earth in the north, air in the east, fire in the south and water in the west. The elements are symbols of energy. They also call to the shining ones of legend, the fairy folk, to be present and any bright spirits including the ancestors and the great ones.”

After a speech and any announcements people want to make, the Druids turn to face the direction of the rising sun and raise their hands. A drum is beaten slowly to start before picking up speed as the sun rises.

“At the first glance of the sun people cheer. Traditionally the druids blow horns and there is then a chant, where you are raising energy and focusing it from the circle and radiate out around the world – it’s a group prayer, not high magic or anything. Sometimes we recite the Druid’s prayer. We close the circle by saying thank you to the spirits and the gods that have been present with us and say farewell to them.”

Explaining the significance and majesty of Stonehenge, he added: “When you walk inside, the stones seem enormous. It’s almost like you’re stood in a street in New York, you get this sense of them towering over you.

“We think Stonehenge is a sacred place that links the Earth, the Moon and the Sun and the seasons. It’s a place designed to draw people to it and the place would have always been there to teach people and give them a ceremony with which to celebrate what’s going on and be a part of it all – much more than just being a tourist monument.” –  ibtimes

Will Self: has English Heritage ruined Stonehenge?

The summer solstice, King Arthur, the Holy Grail … Stonehenge is supposed to be a site of myths and mystery. But with timed tickets and a £27m visitor centre, does it herald a rampant commercialisation of our heritage?
Read more: guardian.com

BBC  The science of the summer solstice

Families across Britain enjoy the longest day of the year on Friday 21 June. It is the summer solstice of 2013.

We get the most hours of daylight because of the position of the Earth in relation to the Sun.

But the solstice does not necessarily fall on the same day each year. And in some parts of the world the Sun does not set at all.

While it is the day that has the most sunlight, Britain’s weather typically does not become hotter until later in the summer.

Experts from five UK universities explain the science of the solstice.

What makes the solstice the longest day of the year?

Our planet does not spin on a vertical axis. It is titled at 23.4 degrees.

This means the amount of sunlight that reaches different regions of the Earth changes during the year as it orbits the Sun.

“Our summer solstice in the northern hemisphere is the point in the Earth’s orbit when the North Pole is most inclined towards the Sun,” says Manchester University’s Dr Tim O’Brien, Associate Director at Jodrell Bank Observatory.

“The axis is tipped 23.4 degrees towards the plane of the Earth’s orbit.

“Over the year the North Pole can be tipped towards the sun – summer in the northern hemisphere, or away from it, which is winter.”

This tilt changes the path we see the sun take across the sky.

“On the summer solstice, the sun rises at its farthest point around the eastern horizon,” adds Dr O’Brien.

“At noon the sun is as high above the horizon as it will ever get, and it sets at its farthest point around the west.

“So daylight lasts longer than on any other day in the year.”

Earth's axis tilts 23.4 degrees

Why doesn’t the sun set in some parts of the world?

Around the time of the summer solstice areas of Norway, Finland, Greenland, Alaska and other polar regions experience ‘midnight sun’.

In the Arctic Circle the sun does not set at all. Again it comes down to the tilt of the earth’s axis.

“The sun shines on the hemisphere of Earth that faces it,” says Coel Hellier, Professor of Astrophysics at Keele University. “Our summer solstice is the point in Earth’s orbit when the North Pole tilts most directly towards the sun.”

“The polar regions are continually illuminated and there is 24-hour daylight throughout the Arctic Circle. This is down to a latitude 23 degrees from the pole, matching the angle of Earth’s tilt.”

While the north enjoys constant daylight the opposite occurs at the South Pole.

“When the Northern hemisphere is tilted towards the sun the Southern Hemisphere is tilted away,” adds Prof Hellier. “Anyone in the Antarctic Circle would experience 24-hour darkness.”

Why is Australia’s summer solstice in December?

While June 21 is the summer solstice in Britain, for Australia and countries in the southern hemisphere this date marks the winter solstice.

“They have their summer solstice in the middle of our winter,” says Martin Hendry, Professor of Gravitational Astrophysics at Glasgow University.

“Oceans act as huge storage heaters and absorb heat all through the summer” – Dr Simon Boxall

“It comes in late December when their part of the Earth is leaning most towards the Sun.”

Seasons are determined by the 23.4 degree tilt in the Earth’s axis.

“Midway between the summer and winter solstices the axis is neither leaning directly towards, nor directly away from the Sun,” adds Prof Hendry.

“We refer to these dates as the ‘Equinoxes’ – when the Sun spends about the same amount of time above and below the horizon.

“In the northern hemisphere the spring equinox occurs around March 21 and the autumn equinox around September 21.

“This is when the length of day and the length of night are about equal everywhere on the Earth.”

Earth's orbit of the Sun

Why doesn’t Britain get hotter until later in summer?

The northern hemisphere has the longest hours of sunlight around the solstice. But Britain usually sees higher temperatures in July and August.

It comes down to the way our planet retains heat.

Callanish Stones, Isle of Lewis
  • The four seasons of the year are caused by the 23.4 degree tilt in the Earth’s axis.
  • The longest hours of sunlight come at the time of the June solstice for the northern hemisphere.
  • The seas around Britain store heat, bringing warmer temperatures later in summer.

The oceans, atmosphere and the land all receive solar radiation,” says Dr Simon Boxall, Lecturer in Oceanography at Southampton University.

“It provides over 99 per cent of the heat on the surface of Earth.

“The atmosphere and land can respond quickly to changes. If the earth was ocean free we would expect maximum temperatures closer to midsummer’s day.

“But over 70 per cent of the planet is ocean, and water takes a while to warm up and cool down.”

This effect is noticeable in Britain because we are surrounded by sea.

“The oceans act as huge storage heaters absorbing heat all through the summer,” adds Dr Boxall. “Think about how long it takes to boil a pan of water and how long it stays warm afterwards.

“The oceans around us hit their peak usually at the end of August or beginning of September.”

Why doesn’t the solstice fall on the same day each year?

The summer solstice falls on June 21 in 2013, but the exact time changes each year. And every leap year it comes on June 20.

“A year of 365 days is only how we humans have chosen to divide time into convenient chunks,” says Dr Somak Raychaudhury, Reader in Astrophysics at Birmingham University.

Changing times of the solstice

The solstice falls around six hours later each year, until a leap year when it jumps back to June 20.

  • 2013 June 21 05:04
  • 2014 June 21 10:51
  • 2015 June 21 16:38
  • 2016 June 20 22:34 – Leap year
  • 2017 June 21 04:24
  • 2018 June 21 10.07
  • 2019 June 21 15:54
  • 2020 June 20 21:44 – Leap year

“The average duration of a year is approximately 365 days five hours 48 minutes and 45 seconds.

“Even this varies by a few seconds every year, since the Earth’s motion is not just caused by the Sun’s pull of gravity.

“It is perturbed by the pull of the planets and moons in the Solar System. The relative positions of these change from year to year.”

This means the solstice occurs around six hours later every year.

To resolve the difference between our calendar year and the actual time it takes the Earth to orbit the sun, we add an extra day at the end of February every four years.

“This makes the June solstice jump back to the previous date for each leap year,” adds Dr Raychaudhury.

Midsummer celebrations have been held in Britain at the time of the solstice for thousands of years.

Ancient stone circles like Stonehenge are still the focal point for such ceremonies today.

Videos

Stonehenge Summer Solstice Sunrise 2014

(Video credit:stonehengetours)

Stonehenge Summer Solstice 2013 – Updated latest 2014

(Video credit: Breaking Australian)

Secrets of Stonehenge – Documentary

(Video credit:The Historian )

Bulgaria: About 12 -16 killed (reports vary), several missing after torrential rain and heavy floods hit Varna – Published 200614 1752z

Torrential rains and floods hit Bulgaria on Thursday, killing at least 10 people, cutting off electricity, blocking roads and sparking evacuations, officials said.

Heavy rainfall in the Black Sea resort city of Varna triggered a flood wave late on Thursday in one of its low-laying suburbs that killed at least 10 people, the mayor of Varna told the national radio.

TV footage showed smashed cars on top of each other on the streets of the suburb, where a state of emergency was declared.

“The tragedy is enormous. I am here on a street in the suburb of Aspruhovo. The street is not here, the houses are not here, there are cars on top of each other,” Varna mayor Ivan Portnih said. Electricity in the suburb was cut off, the mayor said. In central Bulgaria, firefighters evacuated 11 people from the top of their houses in the town of Kilifarevo, police said. Thunderstorms and heavy rains flooded roads and damaged houses in several villages near the capital.

Weather forecasters said the rains that fell in the eastern regions of Varna and Burgas in the past 24 hours equalled the usual amount per month and warned new rainfall and thunderstorms were expected in northern and eastern Bulgaria on Friday.

Friday, 20 June, 2014 at 03:14 (03:14 AM) UTC RSOE

Weather warnings: Bulgaria
Предупреждения за опасни явления: България

Other reports

“Victims of flood in “Asparuhovo” so far 14.

Source: News.Varna24.bg 14:12 / 06.20.2014

10 are confirmed dead in the city, but may be much more. Three missing. Six people were hospitalized, one of which is a woman in labor.

This morning I got up and two victims in Dobrich. A noon bTV reported another died.

On Wednesday it was reported a man who died as a result of heavy rains in Dimitrovgrad.

There is still no official information on what exactly are the victims of the flood in “Asparuhovo” in Varna. According to different data, the number varies between 10 and 12. Smaller number officially reported at 6.50 pm on Friday, Interior Minister Tsvetlin Iovchev. He added that two of the victims are children. Television correspondent in the city reported 12 dead. According to Mayor Ivan Portnih number is 11.

Divers in “Asparuhovo” continue to look for injured people. The latest victim was removed from her home at 3 am in the morning.” – Source: News.Varna24.bg 14:12 / 06.20.2014

Here’s how you can help the needy and how you can get involved as a volunteer

Source: News.Varna24.bg 18:37 / 06.20.2014

“In connection with the dozens of inquiries from citizens regarding their desire to provide immediate assistance to victims of disaster Asparuhovo of the city of Varna Municipality made the following clarifications:

1. Needed humanitarian materials:

– Fixed food – canned beans, cooking oil, biscuits, cookies, packaged products that do not require refrigeration;

– Sanitation – toilet paper, diapers, wipes, disinfectants;

2. Needed physical assistance:

Regarding the need for clearing hundreds of tons of waste and alluvial materials, tomorrow, 21 June 2014. in the yard of the Red Cross – Varna, “Brothers Shkorpil” № 3 is scheduled meeting for anyone interested in volunteering to help in the disaster area.

Let’s all be volunteers with clothing, such as preference will be if participants bring their action boots and shovels. For those who do not have proper equipment, sponsors of the organization provided 300 sets of boots and shovels, so any help would be welcome. Besides the streets voluntary mass will be concentrated in flooded homes.

After the briefing has organized transport from Varna to BRC Asparuhovo area, but the advantage would be if volunteers come with their own transport.

At the afternoon session of the Crisis Staff in District Administration – Varna was decided to build an entrance and focal point to the district administration Asparuhovo. The point will be on duty around the clock, volunteers and representatives of the Red Cross, which will guide the victims to the accommodation and medical professionals for assistance. Site will be distributed directly and humanitarian aid.

All supplies for crisis point will be transferred to a transport column that starts in 18.45ch. of the Red Cross building – Varna, “Brothers Shkorpil” 3.”

More from Varna24 in English

More from Varna24 in Bulgarian

Hours after tragedy struck in Varna, NGOs Bulgaria’s Red Cross (BRC) and volunteers organised donation campaigns and volunteer teams to aid the flood victims in Asparuhovo.

There are two official donation campaigns – one of BRC and one of the Bulgarian Donations Forum and Nova TV national channel.

The Red Cross activated the donations hotline 1466 – by sending a blank text to the number, people can donate BGN 1 for the flood victims. The organisation also opened a bank account for those who wish to make larger donations:
UNICREDIT BULBANK
BG64UNCR76301078660913
UNCRBGSF(For the flood victims in Bulgaria)

The other donations campaign opened the 17777 hotline. Those, willing to donate BGN 1, must send a text message with the following content: DMS Varna. According to reports, the hotline is overloaded and confirmation texts are being sent back with a big delay.

Part of the donations will also be sent to Dobrich, parts of which are also flooded.

Volunteers from Varna and Sofia are organising themselves through Facebook to collect aid and send in teams to help the cleaning operations in Asparuhovo. The hashtags for the operation are: #‎варна‬, #helpvarna, #supportvarna. The main rally point for volunteers in Varna is in front of the Cathedral.

Most needed are water pumps. Volunteers are advised to have warm clothes, gloves, raincoats, shovels and rubber boots.

Videos

Deadly deluge in Bulgaria kill 16

(Video credit: euronews (in English))

Bulgaria floods cause chaos killing at least 12 – BBC News

(Video credit: BBC News)

Deadly Floods in Eastern Bulgaria, At least 10 killed in port city of Varna

(Video credit: World Voiced News)

 

Japan: Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS 07W 171500Z nr 29.6N 131.9E, moving E at 34 knots (JTWC) – Updated 170614 1715z

Tropical Depression Hagibis

16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014

Tropical Storm HAGIBIS 1407 – JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) – JTWC

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) Tropical Depression Hagibis 16 June 2014 to 18 June 2014 (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1407

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories for Japan

CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SOURCE (JMA) WHERE THE WARNING MAP IS INTERACTIVE

 

TS 1407 (HAGIBIS)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 June 2014

<Analyses at 15/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°25′(23.4°)
E116°30′(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°50′(25.8°)
E117°00′(117.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0714.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07W_171132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 171500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 29.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 080 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 130.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 30.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 27 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 31.9N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 131.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 34 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2014 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

NO WARNING AS AT 170614 1646 UTC

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Hagibis re-intensifies near Japan, What to Expect – WestPacWx

Tropical Storm Hagibis is acting like that annoying little person you know that will just not go away. This storm formed quickly in the south china sea, came on shore Sunday, weakened over China and then made a return from the grave Tuesday morning in the East China Sea as a Tropical Storm yet again with winds sustained at 65kph and pressure at 996hpa.

In reality though this storm really is sub-tropical at this point. The bulk of the convection remains along the western side of the storm with dry air wrapping in from the north on the east. Furthermore it has an abundance of upper level support shearing apart the low level circulation.  Still though it will pack a 1-2 punch with the rain season front in western Japan.

VIS SAT

Specifically southern Kyushu heavy rainfall up to 200mm is expected through Wednesday morning along with high winds and large waves near the coastline.

The storm is racing north of Okinawa today but a few thunderstorms are still possible on what would be a cold front developing south of the storm. A few of these could become strong. The biggest problem in Okinawa though will be the gusty winds and high waves from the North.

Hagibis will continue to track east south of Tokyo but still will bring high waves up and down the pacific coast of Japan as a strong extra-tropical storm.

Farther North in Japan what we are seeing is a cut off low proving to be the ignition for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday in Central and Northern Japan. Cold upper level air combined with day time heating could trigger more severe weather.

I say more because on Monday a storm brought heavy rainfall and hail to Tochigi prefecture. In Utsunomiya flooding was reported along with landslides causing 30 families to be evacuated and nine homes were inundated by flood waters.

In Eastern China is still expected mostly due to the rainy season front. Flooding is still possible in areas south of the Yangzi river basin.

The monsoon continues to settle farther south but later this week we could see another surge from the south west. Check the latest update for more information on this..

https://i1.wp.com/www.southchinasea.org/files/2011/08/Southeast-Asia-Reference-Map-CIA-World-Factbook.jpg

(Image credit: middlebury.edu)

MARITIME

Marine Warnings – Japan

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1407 HAGIBIS (1407) 996 HPA
AT 29.1N 130.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 31.0N 136.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.1N 141.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

HIGH SEAS FORECAST JAPAN June 17 2014 – 14:24:49 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST HONG KONG CHINA June 17 2014 – 14:20:23 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST CHINA June 17 2014 – 13:39:55 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 2 for S Italy and Albania/Macedonia. Valid until Weds 180614 0600Z – Published 170614 1540z

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Jun 2014 06:00 to Wed 18 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Jun 2014 23:01
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for southern Italy and Albania/Macedonia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for northern Tunisia, central and southern Italy, Adriatic and northern Ionian Sea, northern Greece and southern Balkans into Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for eastern Iberia and the Gulf of Valencia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Atlantic high continues without a weakening tendency. Arctic air masses will spread into Scandinavia and western Russia at the eastern flank of this high. Polar air masses that have spread into most of Europe will warm in response to diurnal heating, and slightly decreasing moisture and lapse rates can be observed to the south-west of a new cold front that enters the Ukraine, Poland, and eastern Germany in the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms can develop especially below the axis of the long-wave trough from Germany across the Alps, southern France, into eastern Iberia.

Ahead of the long-wave trough, a west-south-westerly flow will establish from northern Tunisia to the Aegean and Black Sea region. An elevated mixed layer will spread into the east Mediterranean, affecting the Ionian and Aegean Sea. Weak frontogenesis to the south of Italy will additionally allow for moisture increase in the boundary-layer, but the capping inversion is forecast to remain quite strong.

DISCUSSION

Southern Italy and Adriatic, southern Balkans, Bulgaria and surroundings

Within the south-westerly jet, a jet streak ejects from the base of the long-wave trough and spreads across the east Mediterranean into Greece. Several vorticity maxima will travel into the forecast area on Tuesday.

The affected air mass is characterized by a rather cool boundary layer air mass with moisture pooling over some regions. Best moisture will evolve over southern Italy ahead of an approaching cold front as well as along a frontal boundary from Serbia to Bulgaria, where low-level convergence exists. Diurnal heating and increasing lapse rates will likely allow for CAPE during the day.

A few rounds of storms are expected to spread east on Tuesday, with widespread storms over central Italy and from the central Balkans to the Black Sea. With 20 m/s deep layer vertical wind shear, especially the southern regions will see well-organized storms, and supercells and bow echoes are forecast. Main threat will be large hail and severe wind gusts with these storms, although excessive rain and a tornado are not ruled out.

Further south, storm initiation is not that probable given the large inversion atop of the boundary-layer. Diurnal heating may support storms over southern Italy and parts of Greece, and some isolated supercells are forecast, capable of producing large hail. These storms may weaken after sunset.

Eastern Iberia

Along the sea-breeze convergence, easterly onshore-winds will allow for upslope flow and moisture advection over eastern Iberia. Steep lapse rates spreading east from the Iberian mountains will overlap with this moisture and CAPE is forecast. Initiation is most likely over the mountains and storms may move east later on. A capping inversion near the sea will likely limit the storm potential. However, near the sea-breeze convergence, 15 m/s deep layer vertical wind shear can support mesocyclones. Large hail will be possible with these storms as well as severe wind gusts, especially when storms will interact with deep boundary layers from the south-west. Convection is forecast to decay after sunset.

West Mediterranean

Near the base of the trough, rather rich low-level moisture and rather steep lapse rates will create some CAPE. Storms are forecast due to some low-level convergence and weal CIN. Given weak vertical wind shear, degree of organization will be weak over most places. Locally large hail and excessive precipitation are not ruled out with the slow moving storms. When clusters can develop, isolated wind reports are not ruled out as well.

The best potential for better storm organization exists south of the Balearic Islands. Stronger deep layer vertical wind shear is expected to support supercells or bow echoes, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. The overall threat is rather weak, though, given the weak instability, low-level vertical wind shear, and lift.

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 17 Jun 2014 14:00 to Tue 17 Jun 2014 17:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 Jun 2014 14:39
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

Convective initiation is currently concentrating along a seabreeze / upslope flow convergence over Central Italy. Coastal areas see dewpoints between 19 and 22C, which yields CAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg according to the 12 UTC Brindisi and (modified) Pratica di Mare soundings.

In the Northern half of the area, deep-layer shear decreases and the background flow starts turning to the Northeast, pushing the convergence zone towards the West coast. Satellite imagery confirms some backbuilding multicells, which pose a risk of heavy rain and large hail.
Further South, storms are stationary or even moving Eastward, and deep-layer shear around 20 m/s beneath the mid-level jetstreak enables good organisation into multi- and supercells. Very low cloud bases and strong low-level shear in the sea breeze regime along the italian East coast hint at a remarkably enhanced tornado risk (refer to the recent Bari metars with 24/22C and Northeasterly surface winds around 7 m/s). Otherwise, large hail and severe wind gusts are possible, as well as flash flood producing rain in case of backbuilding.

Storms continue to travel eastward or form anew along a flow-parallel extension of this convergence line across the Southern Adriatic Sea into Northern Albania and Southern Montenegro. This pattern has already continued for 18 hours and has produced extreme flash floods in parts of Albania. This risk will still continue in the next hours. If stronger updrafts move onshore, all other kinds of severe weather are possible as well.

END

 

US: PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO Watch 303. WEST-CENTRAL IOWA , NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE NEBRASKA

Pilger, Nebraska, Takes Heavy Hit from Reported Tornado

Particularly Dangerous Situation TORNADO Watch 303. Valid until: 06/17/2014 0300Z http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0303.html

SEL3

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

…THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
AINSWORTH NEBRASKA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TEKAMAH
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 302…

DISCUSSION…THE 19Z OMA SOUNDING SAMPLED A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 4000 J/KG MLCAPE…60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR…AND 500
EFFECTIVE SRH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG HEATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH A RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES…A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
…MEAD

SSE THE MAP HERE: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0303.html

Pilger, Nebraska, Takes Heavy Hit from Reported Tornado

(Video credit: earthspace101)

UK: RNLI Littlehampton lifeguards rescue mother and daughter being swept out to sea – Published 160614 1933z

RNLI lifeguards at Littlehampton today carried out their first rescue of the season when a mother and daughter where swept out to sea whilst using an inflatable.

The drama occurred this afternoon (Saturday 14 June) as temperatures soared into the twenties and hundreds of visitors flocked to the South coast’s beaches.

RNLI lifeguard Brittany Jones, working her first season with the charity at Littlehampton East beach, spotted two women – a mother and her daughter – struggling with their inflatable in a strong offshore breeze.

Noticing they were in difficulty, Brittany quickly sprung into action and paddled out to the pair on her rescue board.

Once she reached them, she was able to check they were okay, and then keep them afloat whilst lifeguards from Littlehampton West Tim Walton and Dan Seagrove Castle launched the inshore rescue boat to bring them all safely to shore.

Brittany said: ‘It was a busy day on the beach, but I spotted the two women just outside of the lifeguard zone and they looked like they were having trouble getting back to shore.

‘It’s situations like this where your training really kicks in. Thankfully, it was a happy ending, but we would advise all those visiting a beach to stay in an area where the lifeguards can see you, and if in danger, call for help immediately.’

Once they were brought ashore, the two women were checked over by the lifeguards before continuing with their day.

RNLI lifeguards will patrol the beaches at Littlehampton until 7 September.

The RNLI offers a free Beach Finder app for those heading to the coast, where users can search for their nearest lifeguarded beach, check tide times and get live weather updates. Download from your App store or visit http://bit.ly/LqSiFD for more info – RNLI

US: Dog attack victim, 3, allegedly asked to leave KFC as her scars were ‘disturbing customers’ – Published 160614 1240z

SKY NEWS 6:01am UK, Monday 16 June 2014

KFC ‘Asked Girl To Leave Over Scarred Face’

KFC agrees to pay $30,000 towards the medical bills of Victoria Welcher, who was badly injured in a pitbull attack in April.

Victoria Welcher

A fast food chain has launched an investigation after a three-year-old was allegedly asked to leave a restaurant because her facial injuries were disturbing other customers.

Victoria Welcher, three, was badly injured during an attack by a pit bull dog in April which left her with facial scars and an eye patch.

KFC has said it has launched an investigation after a restaurant employee in Jackson, Mississippi, asked her to leave.

The company said it was also giving $30,000 towards her medical bills.

The allegation was made on Victoria’s Victories, a Facebook page set up to chart the little girl’s recovery after the attack.

A post on the page said: “Last week at KFC in Jackson MS this precious face was asked to leave because her face scared the other diners.”

Kelly Mullins, granny of Victoria Welcher
Kelly Mullins said Victoria now refuses to look in a mirror

KFC spokesman Rick Maynard said: “As soon as we were notified of this report on Friday, we immediately began an investigation, as this kind of hurtful and disrespectful action would not be tolerated by KFC.

“Regardless of the outcome of our investigation, we have apologised to Victoria’s family and are committed to assisting them.

“The company is making a $30,000 donation to assist with her medical bills.”

Victoria’s grandmother Kelly Mullins said they were returning from a doctor’s appointment when they stopped at the KFC.

She told WAPT-TV: “They just told us, they said, ‘we have to ask you to leave because her face is disrupting our customers’.

“She won’t even look in the mirror anymore. When we go to a store, she doesn’t even want to get out of the car.”

Victoria was attacked by pitbulls at her grandfather’s home.

She suffered a broken nose, jaw, cheekbones and right eye socket, lost her right eye and the right side of her face is paralysed, according to her Facebook page.

Source: http://news.sky.com/story/1283024/kfc-asked-girl-to-leave-over-scarred-face

(Video credit: YouTube Videos)

 

Eastern Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Depression CHRISTINA 03E 151600Z nr 20.2N 113.3W, moving NW at 5 knots (JTWC) – Updated 150614 1725z

Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINA 03E

09/6/2014 to 15/6/2014

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINA (Click image for source)

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

 

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

WTPZ33 KNHC 151432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

…CRISTINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.1N 113.3W
ABOUT 290 MI…470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 113.3
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6
MPH…9 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND
CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0314.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 20.0N 113.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 113.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.6N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 21.3N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 22.0N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.0N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 113.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM
NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.
//
NNNN

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

WTPZ23 KNHC 151431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

FZPN03 KNHC 151533
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 3.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA NEAR 20.1N 113.3W 1004 MB AT 1500
UTC JUN 15 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 30 NM SW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CRISTINA NEAR 21.3N
115.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 60 NM
N AND 15 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CRISTINA NEAR 23.0N
116.6W. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.S OF 10N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15…

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N78W TO 06N82W TO 09N90W TO 07N100W TO
09N108W. ITCZ FROM 07N115W TO 08N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
05N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM
S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 125W.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

METAREA XII

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Arabian Sea/ Oman/ India : Tropical Cyclone NANAUK 02A 131200Z nr 19.8 N 62.4 E, moving WNW at 6.4 knots Weakened to a Depression(RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 130614 1737z

Tropical Cyclone NANAUK (2A)

10/7/2014 to 13/7/2014

 

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) TC Nanauk (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

RSMC New Delhi

mapimage

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

 

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAY PYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA ( BANGLADESH )
STORM STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) +
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘NANAUK’ ADVISORY NO. TWENTY ONE ISSUED AT 1400 UTC OF 13TH JUNE

TH
2014 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 13 JUNE 2014

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED ABOUT 12 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT
0
1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13 JUNE, 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH AND
0
LONGITUDE 62.4 EAST, ABOUT 1100 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 850 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL(42909) AND 370 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND (41288). THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
DURING NEXT 24 HRS

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS SHEAR PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM
CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN
0 0 0 0
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH TO 22.0 NORTH LONGITUDES 58.0 EAST TO 64.0 EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
0
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT MINUS 78 C.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 13 JUNE 2014.

Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.co

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0214.gif

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02A_130530sams.jpg

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 130900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 21.3N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 64.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 21.8N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 22.2N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CLEARLY SHOWS THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BY OVER
200 NM AND HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE CDO
FEATURE REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND DEEP AS STRONG OUTFLOW – GENERATED BY
THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET WINDS – PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-50
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND DRIFT POLEWARD WITH THE
850 MB FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, TYPICAL
WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTICES, HAS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

WTIN01 DEMS 130910

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 13 JUNE 2014
———————————————-
PART I:- STORM WARNING (.)
PART II:-THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘NANAUK’ OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED
AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY THE 12TH JUNE 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA(.) IT FURTHER MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
AND NOW LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE 2014 WITHIN
HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 18.7°N AND LONG. 62.7°E. THE SYSTEM WOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
THE FEEBLE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT MEAN SEA LEVEL NOW EXTENDS FROM
MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KERALA COAST(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 63 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

OMAN MARINE FORECAST http://met.gov.om/eng/marine_forecast.php

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  MaharasthraComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Ratnagiri
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 4.2 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Malvan to Vasai of Maharashtra coast.
Winds will be mainly southwesterly, speed 45-50 kmph temporarily/momentarily reaching 60 kmph in gusts/squall.
Sea will be rough with southwesterly waves.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.
Due to high swell propagation, combined with high tide, chances of wave surges are possible around 13:30 hrs on 14/06/2014 along the coast of Maharashtra.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Vasai

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Gujarat
High waves in the range of 3 -4.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast from Jakhau to Diu Head of Gujarat coast.
Wind will be 35 to 45 kmph from southewesterly direction wind speed in gust may temporarily reach 55 kmph. Sea will be rough with waves from southewesterly direction.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during the same period.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Okha

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KarnatakaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Karwar
High waves in the range of 3 – 3.8 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Mangalore to Karwar of Karnataka coast.
Strong onshore winds from South Westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Karnataka coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Karwar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  LakshadweepComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Agatti
High waves in the range of 3.0 -4.1 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely over Lakshadweep area.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Minicoy

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KeralaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Kollam
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 3.5 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hours of 15-06-2014 along the Kerala coast between Vilinjhinjam to Kasargod.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Kerala coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kasargod

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Tamil Nadu
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.1 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the Kolachal to Kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
Strong offshore winds from south westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely off Tamil Nadu coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  AndamanComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Portblair
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the west coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Nicobar
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.2 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 12-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 14-06-2014 along the west coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Car-Nicobar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Goa
High waves in the range of 3.0 -3.9 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast of Goa between Vengurla to Vasco.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.

Significant Wave Height
Vengurla
images
AVHRR Image

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Europe: Very dangerous weather – ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: LEVEL 3! for NW France & BENELUX for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes & excessive precipitation – Published 080614 2310z

THIS INFORMATION IS NO LONGER VALID

ESTOFEX Storm Forecast

Embedded image permalink

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 06:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 08 Jun 2014 22:31
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 3 was issued for NW France and BENELUX for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 2 was issued for much of France and NW Germany mainly for very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for England mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for E Germany and Poland mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Russia and Ukraine mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

In between of the deep low over the Atlantic and the ridge over Central Europe, strong southerly to southwesterly flow will advect hot airmass characterised by steep mid-level lapse rates from N Africa towards France, Germany and then around the ridge towards Poland. Potentially dangerous situation will evolve over France, BENELUX and NW Germany just ahead of the diffuse, wavy frontal boundary that will remain quasistationary close to French coastline during the most of the day. Another low will slowly dig SE-wards across NW Russia. Moderate to strong NW-ly flow is simulated at its southwestern flank. With prevailing low geopotentials over much of Eastern Europe, so scattered DMC is expected also there, albeit severe threat will be smaller than in case of France / BENELUX.

DISCUSSION

… France towards BENELUX and NW Germany …

Very dangerous setup will develop over the region by the late afternoon hours. With pronounced overlap of low-level moisture and steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models agree on the development of high to extreme CAPE values, with Central France towards BENELUX and NW Germany having the highest odds of seeing 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the late evening. As 500 hPa winds between 15 to 25 m/s overlap with backed low-level flow thanks to the presence of the surface trough, strong DLS (20-25 m/s) is forecast. By the late evening, with the enhancement of the low-level wind field with deepening trough, SREH values will increase especially over NW France / BENELUX (with values over 300 m2/s2 possible). Such setup will be very conducive for intense supercells / bow-echoes, capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Towards the evening (beyond 18 UTC), as LLS strengthens, tornadoes will become a threat as well, especially if isolated supercells manage to persist into this time frame.

However, models do not simulate any pronounced QG forcing to rapidly reduce CIN. This will, on one hand, allow for CAPE to build-up steadily towards the late afternoon. On the other hand, it is highly questionable how many storms will initiate and where exactly. There is considerable disagreement by individual models. Overnight / morning convection, along with the outflow boundaries laid by these may be crucial in this setup. Current thinking is, that the foci for late afternoon initiation will be NW France, along the surface convergence zone, with storms spreading into BENELUX. It is likely that these storms will be isolated supercells at first, with subsequent clustering resulting in a fast forward propagating bow-echo. Towards the night, Southern to Central France may see convective initiation, with another possiblity of MCS travelling north towards N France.

Level 3 was introduced for the region, where the highest probability of high storm coverage is forecast and where high density of extremely severe events is most likely. With that in mind, any spot in the Level 2 may see extremely severe storms in these highly favourable conditions, provided storms can initiate.

… England …

Models show that somewhat warmer, moist airmass should advect over E England as the wave in the frontal boundary propagates towards northwest. However, edge of the EML plume should remain to the east, so that MLCAPE values will stay on the order of hundreds of J/kg. As strong flow ovespreads the region, over 25 m/s of DLS is forecast. All models agree on initiation along the lifting warm wave of the boundary. There will be a potential for isolated supercell development, which would be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. However, lack of steep mid-level lapse rates may limit the hail threat, so that a high-end Lvl 1 instead of Lvl 2 is issued.

… Poland …

As EML is advected around the ridge towards east, overlap with modest low-level moisture will contribute to the development of moderate instability, with MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Vertical wind shear should be moderate, between 10 to 15 m/s of bulk shear in the 0-6 km layer, increasing NEwards to between 14 and 20 m/s. Some strong multicells (or perhaps even brief supercells) may initiate along the ill-defined warm front with attendant threats of large hail and severe wind gusts.

… Russia …

With the progressing cut-off low, a plume of steep lapse rates will be pushed southeastwards, but still, the extreme eastern part of the forecast area may see some stronger multicells capable of large hail and/or severe wind gusts. Wind shear should be weak to moderate, perhaps limiting the supercell threat (and very large hail risk).

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 10:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 15:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2014 09:48
Forecaster: PUCIK

Abundant DMC activity is already ongoing in the morning hours. Most of this activity is likely elevated with risk for large hail in the environment of steep lapse rates. The first cluster is now situated over Belgium moving towards Netherlands. Second one is located over NW France with similar movement direction. As daytime heating continues ahead of these clusters with easterly to southeasterly moist surface flow (dewpoints between 18 and 20 ーC), this activity may eventually become surface-based, especially at the eastern flank of the systems. That would rapidly increase chances for supercellular convection capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

To the east and south of the ongoing convective systems, diurnal heating along with backing low-level flow is observed. Further backing of the low-level flow is forecast as surface pressure falls over Southern France. Current thinking is that despite this early activity, best conditions will still develop by the late afternoon with high CAPE values and strong DLS.

SEE ALSO:

(Click image for link)

 

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India: Train collides with marriage party jeep 11 killed (inc 4 children), 2 injured in West Champaran, Bihar – Published 080614 1050z

(Image credit: indiaopines.com)

At least 11 people including 4 kids were killed and 2 others sustained wounds as the jeep they were traveling in was hit by a goods train at an unmanned crossing in Indian state of Bihar on Saturday night, authority said on Sunday.

The tragedy took place as the train passing through the crossing hit the jeep with 13 people on-board on its track between Majhaulia and Sugauli railway stations in West Champaran district of the state, confirmed, Superintendent of Police (SP) Saurabh Kumar said.

The crash killed 4 people on the spot, while 7 others succumbed to their critical wounds at the hospital they were whisked off.

The jeep was reported to be carrying members of a marriage party, including the groom and his close relatives, to Sugauli from Babutola.- Ubalert

Other Reports

“The accident took place at the unmanned Rajghat railway crossing near Bettiah, about 200 km from Patna, when the car carrying people from a wedding including the groom, was hit by the goods train.” – NDTV

 

Train hits jeep at unmanned crossing, 11 killed in West Champaran

TIMES OF INDIA:

“BETTIAH: Eleven persons, including four children, were killed and two others injured as a speeding goods train hit a jeep carrying members of a marriage party at an unmanned crossing in Bihar’s West Champaran district, a police official said on Sunday.

The accident occurred last evening when the jeep carrying 13 members of a marriage party was hit by a goods train while it was trying to cross an unmanned crossing at Gobrahi-Rajghat between Majhaulia and Sugauli railway stations, Superintendent of Police (SP) Saurabh Kumar said.

While four occupants died on the spot, seven others succumbed to injuries in hospital, he said, adding the bodies have been sent for post-mortem.

Two of the injured were undergoing treatment at a hospital where their condition was stated to be critical, he said.

The ill-fated vehicle was carrying members of a marriage party, including the groom and his close relatives, from Babutola to Sugauli (East Champaran), he said.

Meanwhile, the East Central Railway (ECR) DRM Arun Malik visited the spot and ordered manning of the railway crossing there, the SP said.

In Patna, chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi expressed grief over the incident and directed the district administration to undertake rescue and relief works.

He has also appealed to road users to be careful while passing through unmanned crossing.”

Eastern Pacific/Mexico: Tropical Cyclone developing. Invest 94E 091400Z nr 15.9N 102.3W, moving NW at 3 knots (JTWC) – Updated 090614 1700z

THIS IS OUT OF DATE NOW, NO LONGER VALID

GO HERE https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/06/12/eastern-pacificmexico-hurricane-christina-cat4-03e-121230z-nr-16-4n-106-9w-moving-wnw-at-7-knots-intensifying-nhc-updated-120614-1400z/

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (Invest 94E)

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH  –JTWC

HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO – NHC

MEXICO BEWARE!

Weather Underground

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Last Updated 09/06/2014, 13:00:00 (GMT Standard Time)
Location 15.9 102.3W Movement NW at 5 mph
Wind 45KPH

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure system located about 150 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

AXPZ20 KNHC 091535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURE…

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 16N102W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NW AT 5 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW…AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 06N89W THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO
09N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 16N102W DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE…SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS E
OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 88W.

…DISCUSSION…
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N116W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHEASTWARD…PARALLELING THE COAST FROM CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE IT MOVES INLAND. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN
LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY…WITH VALUES OVER 2.25
INCHES SPANNING THE COASTAL REGION FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO
MANZANILLO. THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION…SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF THE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THE UPPER RIDGE
LOCATION IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS…KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

AT THE SURFACE…A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR
40N142W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N134W TO 20N120W.
TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE S OF THE
RIDGE AXIS…WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND N OF THE
RIDGE AXIS W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONG. SEAS TO 10
FT CAN BE FOUND OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TUE…SHIFTING N-NE WED AS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING 8 FT SEAS AS FAR S AS 21N BY WED
MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE
HAS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE THIS MORNING. A NEW
BATCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS REACHED THE EQUATOR W OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LOOK FOR SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE
OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 01N THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER

 

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane: (Mon 9 June 2014 1749 UTC) EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – System 94E is rapidly developing- The National Hurricane Center noted that System 94 E is now a well-defined low pressure system and is located about 150 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo,Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for continued development, and this system will likely become a tropical depression later this afternoon or tonight.
The low is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, which, NHC noted, will keep the strongest winds away from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

This GOES West satellite imagery from 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) shows System 94E off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep9414.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/94E_091500sair.jpg

WTPN21 PHNC 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 101.6W TO 16.9N 106.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
091400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
102.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.1W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.3W, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG SOUTEASTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

000
FZPN03 KNHC 091535
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 3.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 09.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUN 11.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W 1007 MB MOVING NW 5 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N104W 1003 MB. WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N107W 1002 MB. WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER AND 45 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT.

.S OF 02N BETWEEN 93W AND 127W AND S OF 01S BETWEEN 83W AND 93W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W AND S OF 01S
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 97W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO
10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N BETWEEN 123W AND 136W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W N WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N BETWEEN 124W AND
138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF
21N W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 21N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1415 UTC MON JUN 09…
.SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM SW OF COAST BETWEEN 88W AND
92W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N89W THEN
CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO 09N128W. ITCZ AXIS
FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W. LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W…NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N
OF AXIS E OF 88W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

 

METAREA XII

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: London Thames pleasure boat in collision with Tower Bridge. 10 injured – Published 040614 1400z

File:Tower Bridge (aerial view).jpg

Tower Bridge (aerial view) Bob Collowan, CC-BY-SA-3.0, Wikimedia Commons (Click image for more about Tower Bridge)

London lifeboat crew treat injured as Thames cruiser collides with Tower Bridge

Lifeboat crew members from the RNLIs Tower lifeboat station have treated a woman with a head wound after a River Thames city cruiser collided with Tower Bridge.

The lifeboat crew, based below Waterloo Bridge, were tasked by London Coastguard shortly after midday today (Wednesday) after the City Cruises vessel Millennium Diamond was involved in the collision.

The woman, believed to be in her 60s, is believed to have fallen down a set of steel steps, sustaining a head injury and bruises to her ribs.

The lifeboat crew were the first on scene and treated the womans head wound until London Ambulance Service paramedics arrived and took her away for further treatment.

Kevin Maynard, one of the four Tower RNLI lifeboat crew members on the lifeboat, explained how the drama unfolded: We launched just after midday and when we arrived the boat had come alongside St Katherines Pier by Tower Bridge. We understand the woman had been standing at the top of some steel steps when the collision happened and the impact knocked her down.

Although the original call to us was related to that one lady, while we were on scene a further nine people came forward to say they had been injured. We treated the woman by giving her oxygen and using blankets to keep her warm, as well as dressing her wound and placing her on a board to protect her spine. We looked after her until London Ambulance Service arrived to take her away for further assessment.

The lifeboat crew consisted of helmsman Kevin Maynard as well as David Norman, Craig Burns, and volunteer life boatman Neil Withers.

The crew are currently remained on scene to assist where necessary (correct as at 1.50pm)

Tower RNLI is one of three London lifeboat stations serving the entire length of the Thames from the estuary up to Teddington Lock. The RNLI remains a charity that relies on donations and voluntary contributions for its lifesaving work. RNLI

My Photo INCIDENT AT TOWER BRIDGE

London Coastguard is coordinating the response to an incident on the Thames in which a pleasure boat, the Millennium Diamond, was in collision with Tower Bridge.

10 people are believed to be injured.

Emergency services and the RNLI are on the scene.

Other Reports

A City Cruises boat collided with the south pier of Tower Bridge this lunchtime. MPS Marine Policing Unit attended the scene andreported that two people were injured.

The boat docked at St Katharines pier and one passenger was removed on a stretcher and taken to hospital while the other was treated ashore. Minor damages to the vessel are reported.

Tower Bridge remains open to pedestrians and road traffic. –http://londonist.com

More inc photos athttp://londonist.com/2014/06/city-cruises-vessel-collides-with-tower-bridge.php?showpage=2#gallery-1

 

Mexico: Tropical Depression (Ex TS BORIS) 02E 041000Z nr 16.3N 93.8W, moving N at 5 knots (JTWC) – Updated 040614 1251z

Tropical Depression 02E (TWO-E)

BORIS WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK EASTERN MEXICO(NHC)

(Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española) (Scroll down for Spanish translation)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 040831
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT WED JUN 04 2014

BORIS WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK EASTERN MEXICO
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT0900 UTCINFORMATION
-
LOCATION16.2N 93.9W
ABOUT 85 MI140 KM E OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS35 MPH55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENTN OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE1003 MB29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREAPLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 200 AM PDT0900 UTCTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTHLONGITUDE 93.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH7 KM/HAND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACKTHE DEPRESION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH55
KM/HWITH HIGHER GUSTS. BORIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-
RAINFALLBORIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPORTS FROM
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE INDICATE THAT THE CITY OF TONALA ON
THE COAST OF CHIAPAS RECIEVED NEAR 8.5 INCHES213 MMOF RAIN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0214.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BORIS) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z NEAR 16.0N 93.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 93.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z 17.0N 93.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z 18.0N 93.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 93.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BORIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEHUANTEPEC, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

 

Other

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Jun, 2014 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BORIS (02E) currently located near 16.2 N 93.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

NASA Hurricane:

E. PACIFIC *Full Update* NASA Infrared Imagery Sees Heavy Rain Potential in Tropical Depression 2E
NASAs Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of Tropical Depression 2E that revealed high, very cold cloud top temperatures.FULL STORY/WARNINGS:
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/93e-eastern-pacific-ocean-june-2014

MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ22 KNHC 040830
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
0900 UTC WED JUN 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEATCENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7WPOST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KTGUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5WPOST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KTGUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800ZDISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

 

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

SPANISH

Depresin Tropical 02E ( TWO -E)

……… BORIS DEBILITA PERO SEGUIR REMOJO ORIENTAL MEXICO ……… ( NHC )

( Desplcese HACIA abajo prr la traduccin española ) ( Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsin de 5 das ( clic en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( clic en la imagen para la fuente )

Servicio Meteorolgico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

[ Imagen de la prediccin de 5 das de la pista prevista, y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

000
WTPZ32 TJSJ 040831
TCPEP2

BOLETN
DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT MIRCOLES 04 de junio 2014

… BORIS DEBILITA PERO SEGUIR REMOJO ORIENTAL MEXICO …
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … INFORMACIN
—————-
UBICACIN … 16,2 N 93.9W
ACERCA DE MI 85 … 140 KM E DE SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 35 MPH … 55 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … N O 360 GRADOS A 5 MPH … 7 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS
RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——-
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS .

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY COSTERA RELOJES O ADVERTENCIA EN EFECTO .

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR DE
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA .
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS 48 HORAS
———-
A LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS
ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.2 NORTE … LONGITUD 93.9 OESTE .
LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH … 7 KM / H … Y
SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24
HORAS . EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA … EL DEPRESION CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE
INLAND MS LEJOS .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 35 MPH … 55
KM / H … CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES . BORIS SE ESPERA PARA SER
BAJA REMANENTE TARDE HOY .
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
——–
LLUVIA … BORIS SE PREV QUE PRODUZCA CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SOBRE LA
Estados mexicanos de Oaxaca y Chiapas . ESTAS LLUVIAS adicionales sern
TRAER AISLADAS CANTIDADES TOTALES DE TORMENTA a tanto como 20 PULGADAS …
Especialmente en los terrenos ms altos . ESTAS LLUVIAS POSIBLEMENTE
RESULTADO EN INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO . INFORMES DE
EL SERVICIO DE TIEMPO MEXICANA INDICAN QUE LA CIUDAD DE TONALA EN
LA COSTA DE CHIAPAS RECIBIDO CERCA DE 8.5 PULGADAS … 213 MM … DE LLUVIA
DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS .
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
—–
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 800 AM PDT .

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

Centro de Advertencia de Tifones Conjunto ( JTWC )

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0214.gif

Google Earth Overlay grfico

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TIFN WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVERTENCIA / /
OBS /
1 . DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E ( BORIS ) ADVERTENCIA NR 007
Rebajado de 02E TORMENTA TROPICAL
01 ACTIVO CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC
Vientos mximos sostenidos en base al promedio de un minuto
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE

ADVERTENCIA POSICIN :
040600Z – CERCA 16.0N 93.9W
Los movimientos ms all de seis horas – 010 GRADOS A 05 KTS
POSICIN EXACTA EN EL PLAZO DE 040 NM
Posicin basada en el centro situado POR SATLITE
ACTUALIDAD DISTRIBUCIN DE VIENTO :
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 030 KT , KT 040 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
POSIT REPEAT: 16.0N 93.9W

Previsiones:
12 HRS , vlido en :
041800Z – 17.0N 93.7W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 025 KT , KT 035 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
Disipando COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL RELEVANTE SOBRE TIERRA
VECTOR DE 24 HR POSIT : 010 DEG / 05 KTS

24 HRS , vlido en :
050600Z – 18.0N 93.5W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 020 KT , KT 030 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
Disipa como CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE TIERRA

OBSERVACIONES:
041000Z POSICIN CERCA 16.3N 93.8W .
DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E ( BORIS ) , ubicado aproximadamente a 79 NM
Este-sureste de Tehuantepec, MEXICO , ha rastreado AT 05 NUDOS
EN LOS LTIMOS SEIS HORAS.
MXIMA altura de ola significativa AT 040600Z es de 10 pies . SIGUIENTE
ADVERTENCIAS EN 041600Z , 042200Z 050400Z Y .
/ /
NNNN

otro
TSR Logone Pacfico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 04 de junio 2014 09:00 GMT

Depresin Tropical BORIS ( 02E ) que actualmente se encuentra cerca de 16,2 N 93,9 W se prev a la huelga de la tierra a la siguiente verosimilitud ( s ) en el tiempo de espera determinado ( s ) :

Alerta Amarilla Pas ( s ) o provincia ( s )
Mxico
probabilidad de TS es del 70% en la actualidad

Tenga en cuenta que
Alerta amarilla ( elevada ) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10 % y 30 % de probabilidad , o TS a por encima de 50 % de probabilidad .
CAT 1 significa vientos de fuerza de huracn de al menos 74 mph , 119 km / ho 64 nudos de 1 minuto sostenido .
TS significa vientos de fuerza de tormenta tropical de por lo menos 39 mph , a 63 km / ho 34 nudos de 1 minuto sostenido .

Para obtener informacin de previsin grfica y ms detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

NASA Huracn:

E. PACFICO * actualizacin completa * imgenes de la NASA Infrared ve pesado Potencial Lluvia en la depresin tropical 2E
Satlite Aqua de la NASA captur una imagen infrarroja de la depresin tropical 2E que revel altos , top temperatures.FULL HISTORIA nube muy fra / ADVERTENCIAS :
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/93e-eastern-pacific-ocean-june-2014
MARTIMO
METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ22 TJSJ 040830
TCMEP2

DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS PRONSTICO / ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022014
0900 UTC MIERCOLES 04 de junio 2014

CAMBIOS EN LOS RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS .

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY COSTERA RELOJES O ADVERTENCIA EN EFECTO .

CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 16,2 N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSICIN EXACTA dentro de 40 NM

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL HACIA EL NORTE O 360 GRADOS A 4 KT

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA 1.003 MB
Vientos mximos sostenidos de 30 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 40 KT .
VIENTOS Y OLEAJE varan mucho en cada cuadrante. RADIOS EN NUTICA
MILES son los radios MAYOR SE ESPERA EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN QUE CUADRANTE .

REPETIR … CENTRO LOCALIZADO CERCA 16,2 N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA 16.0N 93.9W

Pronstico vlido 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7W … POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 25 KT … RAFAGAS 35 KT .

Pronstico vlido 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5W … POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS 30 KT .

05/1800Z VLIDO PRONSTICO … DISIPADO
SOLICITUD DE 3 INFORMES DE BUQUES POR HORA EN 300 MILLAS DE 16,2 N 93.9W

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA EN 04/1500Z

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

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