Johnston Island/ Hawaii/ Central Pacific/ HURRICANE HECTOR CAT3 10E 09/1500Z 16.6N 160.1W, moving W ~14.03kt 957mb (CPHC) – Updated 09 Aug 2018 1820Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE HECTOR 10E

Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

……MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON

JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK…….CPHC

*A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Johnston Island – CPHC

**FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF HECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY** – NWS HI

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Hector – CPHC

 

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

ep102018_3day_cone_no_line_37

 

 

WTPA31 PHFO 091452
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 09 2018

…MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH
OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON JOHNSTON ISLAND
LATER THIS WEEK…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.6N 160.1W
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 620 MI…1000 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for…
* Johnston Island

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
*A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Johnston Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible
within the next 48 hours.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway
and Kure Atolls and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
west of Pearl/Hermes, should monitor the progress of Hector. This
does not include the main Hawaiian Islands.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 160.1 West. Hector is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through today. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest is expected from tonight through late Friday. Note
that on the forecast path, the center of Hector is expected to pass
to the north of Johnston Island late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast
through Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Hector should begin to impact Johnston
Island tonight. This will likely produce large and dangerous waves
along portions of the island from late tonight through Friday
night.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston

Links:

Hawaii Emergency Management Agency
City and County of Honolulu Department of Emergency Management
Kauai Emergency Management
Maui County Emergency Management
Hawaii County Civil Defense

NWS Forecast Office Honolulu, HI

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

Other

Subtropical Storm Debby Forms; Cat 4 Hector Poised to Graze Hawaii

Dr. Jeff Masters August 7, 2018, 2:34 PM EDT

Dr. Jeff Masters co-founded Weather Underground in 1995, and flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

HURRICANE WARNING

Offshore Waters Forecast for Hawaii
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
528 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240
nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height
of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than
twice the significant wave height.

PHZ180-092215-
Hawaiian Offshore Waters-
528 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…Hurricane conditions expected far SW waters early. Seas
10 to 20 ft. Elsewhere, E to SE winds 10 to 20 kt and seas 7 to 10
ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft, highest SW.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY…E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

WTPA21 PHFO 091449 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102018
1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR…
. JOHNSTON ISLAND

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. JOHNSTON ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS… INCLUDING MIDWAY
AND KURE ATOLLS AND THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
WEST OF PEARL/HERMES…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HECTOR. THIS
DOES NOT INCLUDE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 160.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 150SW 190NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 160.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 159.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 162.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.2N 164.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Hong Kong/ China/ South China Sea: Tropical Depression 1816 09/1500Z 18.1°N 111.4°E, next 24hrs will move NNW at speed of 12km/h (~6.47kt) 998hPa (CMA) – Published 09 Aug 2018 1520Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 1816

Guangdong Hainan Island China Beware!

CMA CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

Typhoon Message
20180809 23:12

National Meteorological Center No.2396
Analysis Time: Aug. 09th 15 UTC
Name of TC: TD
Current Location: 18.1°N 111.4°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 15m/s(54km/h)
Central Pressure: 998hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs will moving NNW at speed of 12km/h

HongKong HKO logo

Tropical Depression
at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Position: 18.3 N, 111.9 E (about 500 km south-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 45 km/h
The tropical cyclone over the northern part of the South China Sea will move in the general direction towards the vicinity of the coast of western Guangdong to Hainan Island in the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
20:00 HKT 10 August 2018 20.3 N 111.5 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 11 August 2018 21.3 N 111.4 E Tropical Storm 65 km/h
20:00 HKT 12 August 2018 21.7 N 110.6 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 13 August 2018 22.1 N 108.8 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
20:00 HKT 14 August 2018 21.8 N 106.2 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

In the past few hours, the movement of the tropical depression was rather slow and kept a distance from Hong Kong.

According to the present forecast track, the chance of issuing the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is not high before dawn on Friday. Members of the public should take note of the latest weather situation before departing home in the morning.

The outer rain bands of the tropical depression will affect the coast of Guangdong on Friday and Saturday. Locally, there will be squally showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be occasionally strong over offshore waters and on high ground.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 1 Signal)

1. Every precaution should be taken. Objects likely to be blown away should be secured or taken indoors. Check if all windows and doors can be securely locked.

2. Drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish. People in low-lying areas should take precautions against flooding.

3. Those who have duties during a tropical cyclone should now remain on call.

4. There may be swells, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline.

5. Listen to radio, watch TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory’s website and mobile app for the latest information on the tropical cyclone.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Tropical Cyclone Warning (HKO)

At 091200 UTC, the tropical depression over the northern part of South China Sea with central pressure 998 hectopascals was centred within 90 nautical miles of one eight point one degrees north (18.1 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move north-northwest at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 25 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 60 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 101200 UTC
Two zero point three degrees north (20.3 N)
One one one point five degrees east (111.5 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 111200 UTC
Two one point three degrees north (21.3 N)
One one one point four degrees east (111.4 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 121200 UTC
Two one point seven degrees north (21.7 N)
One one zero point six degrees east (110.6 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 131200 UTC
Two two point one degrees north (22.1 N)
One zero eight point eight degrees east (108.8 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 141200 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

WWHK82 VHHH 091200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) OVER NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA(SCS): NIL.
SYNOPSIS (091200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 091200UTC, TD WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA AND MAXIMUM
WINDS 25 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 18.1N 111.9E AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNW AT ABOUT 6 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 101200UTC: 20.3N, 111.5E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SCS.
SWELL SW 3 M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 210 NM FROM CENTRE OF TD.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE SCS AND SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm SHANSHAN (17W) 09/1200Z 37.9N 142.5E, moving NNE 11kt 985 hPa (JMA) – Updated 09 Aug 2018 1444Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm SHANSHAN (17W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

1813-005

 

JPwarn S9

STS 1813 (Shanshan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 9 August 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 9 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N37°55′ (37.9°)
E142°30′ (142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°35′ (39.6°)
E146°30′ (146.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°00′ (41.0°)
E153°00′ (153.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 17W (Shanshan) Warning #27
Issued at 09/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
091200Z — NEAR 37.8N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 142.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 39.6N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 27 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 41.0N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 38.2N 143.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SHANSHAN is currently located near 37.4 N 141.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). SHANSHAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP22 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 985 HPA
AT 37.9N 142.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 39.6N 146.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 41.0N 153.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 091200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 141E
42N 143E 47N 153E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 41N 180E 35N 165E 40N
150E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 59N 163E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 51N 180E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1000 HPA NEAR 19N 112E NW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 11N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 33N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 46N 166E EAST 15 KT.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 51N 180E TO 52N 178W 53N 175W.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 175W TO 47N 176W 42N 180E 40N 177E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 143E TO 42N 149E 42N 155E 40N 162E 36N
169E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 985 HPA AT 37.9N 142.5E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1814 YAGI (1814) 994 HPA AT 20.9N 133.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Okinawa/ Japan/ China/ South Korea: Tropical Storm YAGI 18W 091200Z 20.9N 133.4E, Almost stationary 994 hPa (JMA) – Published 09 Aug 2018 1345Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm YAGI 18W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

jma-logo3

1814-00

TS 1814 (Yagi)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 9 August 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 9 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°55′ (20.9°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 560 km (300 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°55′ (23.9°)
E132°05′ (132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°05′ (27.1°)
E128°20′ (128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°00′ (31.0°)
E124°25′ (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 20.6N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 133.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 21.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 26.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 34.6N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 39.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 133.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm YAGI is currently located near 20.6 N 133.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). YAGI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1814 YAGI (1814) 994 HPA
AT 20.9N 133.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 23.9N 132.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.1N 128.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 31.0N 124.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

MEXICO/ East Pacific: HURRICANE JOHN CAT2 08/0900Z 20.0N 111.6W, moving NNW ~10.7kt 972mb (NHC FL) – Published 08 Aug 2018 1400Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE JOHN

John is a category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.

…JOHN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…NHC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

085859_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind


487
WTPZ32 KNHC 080857
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

…JOHN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.0N 111.6W
ABOUT 230 MI…365 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 111.6 West. John is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn back toward
the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later
this morning, with that motion continuing for the next few days.
On the forecast track, John will pass well to the southwest of Baja
California Sur today and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
John is expected to become a tropical storm by late Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated
maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by John will affect portions of the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

994
FZPN03 KNHC 080929
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC WED AUG 8 2018

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI AUG 10.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE JOHN NEAR 20.0N 111.6W 972 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 08
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE…60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM NE…240 NM SE…150 NM SW AND 180 NM
NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 34 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 102W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOHN NEAR 22.8N 114.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS…RADIUS OF 20 TO 33 KT WINDS AND
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JOHN NEAR 25.3N 119.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE…40 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N
OF 18N BETWEEN 110W 1ND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL JOHN NEAR 26.8N 122.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JOHN NEAR 27.0N
125.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JOHN NEAR 27.3N
127.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 KT GUSTS 20 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 14.2N 128.5W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
08 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE AND 20
NM SE QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM E AND 30 NM
W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E AND
90 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 15.5N 130.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE…30 NM SE…0 NM SW AND 20 NM NW
QUADRANTS. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 150 OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 17.3N 130.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE…50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SE
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 19.5N 130.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 21.5N 130.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KRISTY NEAR 23.0N
132.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 24N S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N SE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT IN S SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC WED AUG 8…

.HURRICANE JOHN…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240
NM OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM KRISTY…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 75 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES FROM CENTER.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N
OF 11N WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 107W.

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Storm ILEANA 11E 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W, moving NW ~19.97kt 1002mb (NHC FL) – Updated 07 Aug 2018 0935Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm ILEANA 11E

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

…ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…NHC

 

National Hurricane Center (FL US)

 

 

035
WTPZ31 KNHC 070553
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

…ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.0N 106.0W
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken further due to the
influence of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the
southwest, and the small cyclone should dissipate later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring within portions
of the warning area. However, tropical storm conditions will
rapidly diminish later this morning.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco…with isolated maximum amounts
of 5 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Aug, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ILEANA is currently located near 18.0 N 104.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). ILEANA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTPZ21 KNHC 070232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT……. 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

….
FORECASTER ROBERTS
FZPN02 KWBC 070557 PZB
HSFEPI
T 30N143W 28N147W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ 09N146W 08N167W 11N173W 10N177W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 159W…AND
180 NM N OF TROUGH W OF 158W.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 179W TO
174E…AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 170W ND 176W…AND FROM 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 165W AND 175W.

$$

.FORECASTER ALMANZA. HONOLULU HI.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

China/ East China Sea: Tropical Storm Jongdari 15W 02/0900Z 30.0N 126.3E, moving NW Slow 990hPa (JMA) – Updated 02 Aug 2018 1015Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Jongdari 15W

SHANGHAI – CHINA BEWARE!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. – JTWC

JMA logo

1812-00

TS 1812 (Jongdari)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 2 August 2018

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 2 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N30°00′ (30.0°)
E126°20′ (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 2 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°50′ (30.8°)
E123°25′ (123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 3 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°40′ (31.7°)
E120°40′ (120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N33°55′ (33.9°)
E116°00′ (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

CMA logo China

Typhoon Message
20180802 17:21

National Meteorological Center No.2305
Analysis Time: Aug. 02th 09 UTC
Name of TC: JONGDARI
Num. of TC: 1812
Current Location: 29.7°N 126.1°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 23m/s(82.8km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 220km SE 150km SW 100km NW 100km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs JONGDARI will moving WNW at speed of 30km/h

 

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 15W (Jongdari) Warning #46 RELOCATED Relocated
Issued at 02/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN35 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING NR 046 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z — NEAR 29.3N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 006 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 126.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 30.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 31.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 32.9N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 126.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON MSI SHOWING EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
CENTER.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression JONGDARI is currently located near 29.7 N 126.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). JONGDARI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

 

Other

DrR J02

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

 

WTJP21 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1812 JONGDARI (1812) 990 HPA
AT 29.3N 126.7E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 30.4N 123.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 31.4N 121.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 33.9N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 020600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC AUG.02 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC AUG.02=
FCST VALID 0600UTC AUG.03=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS JONGDARI 1812(1812) 985HPA AT 29.2N 126.6E
MVG WNW 30KMH AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
220KM NE
150KM SE
100KM SW
100KM NW
AND FCST FOR 030600UTC AT 31.2N 120.8E 992HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUSTS 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER CENTRAL PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND
SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND LAUT SULAWESI=
FCST=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
CYCLONIC WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH HVY RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
VIS MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS VEER W 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO ROUGH LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS
MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
W WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
BECMG CLOUDY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=

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