Taiwan>China: Tropical Storm BAILU 12W 21/1200Z 15.8° 130.7°, moving WNW 09kt 998hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 21 Aug 20191456Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm BAILU (1911, 12W)
(Ineng in PH)

Expected to become acategory 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by Aug, 12:00 UTC (TSR UCL data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

JMA logo

1911-00

TS 1911 (Bailu)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 21 August 2019

12 UTC, 21 August>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N15°50′ (15.8°)
E130°40′ (130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 700 km (375 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°05′ (18.1°)
E128°25′ (128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°05′ (21.1°)
E124°55′ (124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°55′ (23.9°)
E120°25′ (120.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°50′ (25.8°)
E116°40′ (116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N27°30′ (27.5°)
E115°10′ (115.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)

TAIWAN

2019/08/21 12:00, Tropical Storm BAILU (201911) , Center Location 15.70N 130.60E, Movement: NW 15KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 998 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 18m/s, Gust 25m/s, Radius of 15m/s 100k

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 211200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS BAILU 1911 (1911) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC
00HR 15.8N 130.8E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
280KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 16.4N 129.6E 990HPA 23M/S
P+24HR 17.6N 128.4E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 19.4N 126.7E 982HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 20.7N 125.1E 980HPA 30M/S
P+60HR 22.1N 123.0E 975HPA 33M/S
P+72HR 23.4N 120.9E 982HPA 28M/S
P+96HR 25.1N 117.0E 998HPA 18M/S
P+120HR 26.5N 113.7E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

CHINA

NMA CHINA

Typhoon Message
20190821 20:19

National Meteorological Center No.632
Analysis Time: Aug. 21th 12 UTC
Name of TC: BAILU
Num. of TC: 1911
Current Location: 15.8°N 130.8°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 18m/s(64.8km/h)
Central Pressure: 998hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 300km SE 250km SW 280km NW 200km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs BAILU will moving WNW at speed of 13km/h

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Depression 12W (Bailu) Warning #01
Issued at 21/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200921ZAUG2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 15.2N 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 131.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 16.0N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 16.9N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 18.3N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 19.7N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 22.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z — 25.1N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 27.3N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 131.6E.
21AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (BAILU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
716 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND
220900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 200930).//
NNNN

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Aug, 2019 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Depression BAILU is currently located near 15.2 N 131.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 25kts (29 mph). BAILU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DocR Bailu2

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1911 BAILU (1911) 998 HPA
AT 15.8N 130.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 18.1N 128.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.1N 124.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.9N 120.4E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 25.8N 116.7E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 27.5N 115.2E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 211200
2:2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC AUG.21 2019=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC AUG.21=
FCST VALID 1200UTC AUG.22=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS BAILU 1911(1911) 998HPA AT 15.8N 130.8E
MVG WNW 15KMH AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 5.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
300KM NE
250KM SE
280KM SW
200KM NW
AND FCST FOR 221200UTC AT 17.6N 128.4E 985HPA
AND MAX WINDS 25M/S NEAR CENTER=SUMMARY=
SE WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S GUSTS 14M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER EASTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S GUSTS 14M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER BASHI CHANNEL AND SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
CYCLONCI WINDS FROM 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
AND SEA WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=
SLY/SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS
UP TO 2.5M OVER SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
AND SEA WEST OF GUAM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER ANDAMAN
SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND MALACCA STRAIT
AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND
MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT TO MOD
LIGHT RAIN BECMG RAINSTORM VIS MOD TO POOR=
KOREA STRAIT
SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
CYCLONIC WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO ROUGH MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
E WINDS VEER SE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
SW WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS
MOD=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Japan/ Russia: LOW (Former TS KROSA 11W) 1910 16/1200Z near 43.0°N 138.0°E, moving NE 20 kt 984 hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 16 Aug 2019 1340Z (GMT/UTC)

LOW (Former Tropical Storm KROSA 11W 1910)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 13 FEET – JTWC

JMA logo

 

 

 

Units:
1 kt (knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1 NM (nautical mile) = 1.852 km

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

 

 

LOW
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 16 August 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 16 August>
Scale
Intensity
LOW
Center position N43°00′ (43.0°)
E138°00′ (138.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 11W (Krosa) Warning #42 Final Warning
Issued at 16/0300Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160000Z — NEAR 39.4N 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.4N 134.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 42.3N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 44.3N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 40.1N 135.6E.
16AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM
WEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO ERODE AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK THROUGH THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BROAD AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS POORLY-DEFINED IN MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS IN LINE WITH A PARTIAL 160048Z METOP-B ASCAT
PASS SHOWING SWATHS OF 35 KNOT WIND BARBS SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED
FROM THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE (24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS).
TS 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

 

 

 

RUSSIA

ma_main RU

In the Primorsky, Khabarovsk Territories and in the Jewish Autonomous Region a storm warning, heavy rains and strong winds …

The cyclone moves along the Sea of ​​Japan, gradually weakening, and on Saturday night should turn away from Primorye towards Hokkaido Island and further into the Pacific Ocean. But under the influence of an active atmospheric front in the west of Primorsky Krai at night on August 17, very heavy rains. Rains on the coast will be accompanied by wind with gusts of up to 30 m / s. The height of the water level rise in the rivers will be from one to 3 meters, with the water coming out of the coast, flooding of settlements. Floods will be sharp, intense, and flooding of certain sections of roads is also possible.

In the Khabarovsk Territory and in the south of the Amur Region, there are also heavy and very heavy rains on weekends, thunderstorms wind up to 22 m / s. In the afternoon in the Amur Region about 20 degrees. On the Amur River and the rivers of the southern regions of the Jewish Autonomous Region and the Khabarovsk Territory, an additional rise in the water level is expected, including at Khabarovsk, as well as downstream of the Amur River.

On the islands, the weather is also getting worse, on Saturday in the south of Sakhalin and the Kuril ridge, heavy rain. And it’s not hot, up to 22 degrees on Sakhalin and no more than 20 degrees on the Kuril Islands.

In Kamchatka it rains, windy, in the afternoon 13 … 18 degrees.

It rains in the south of the region and forest fires in the north. In Yakutia, a special fire regime was introduced in ten regions of the Republic. But it will rain, in the afternoon 18 … 23 degrees, in the northeast up to 26 heat, on the Arctic coast 3 … 8 degrees.

Residents of the Magadan region will be pleased with the weather, without precipitation, although not hot, in the afternoon 15 … 20 degrees, at night in the continental regions freezing up to -2 degrees.

Prepared specifically for Channel One

– meteoinfo.ru


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Aug, 2019 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm KROSA is currently located near 39.4 N 134.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). KROSA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
 Japan
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP21 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 980 HPA
AT 40.9N 135.6E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 43.6N 138.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
982 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 44.8N 140.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Yaeyama Islands (Japan)/ Taiwan/ China: TYPHOON LEKIMA 10W 08/1300Z 24.4°N 124.9°E, moving NW 08kt. 925hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 08 Aug 2019 1530Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON LEKIMA 10W 1909

LEKIMA is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. (TSR UCL London -1200 UTC today)

Yaeyama Islands/ (Japan)/Taiwan/ China

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 50 FEET (FIVE ZERO FEET) – JTWC

JMA logo

1909-00-3

 

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

 

TY 1909 (Lekima)
Issued at 13:45 UTC, 8 August 2019

<Analysis at 13 UTC, 8 August>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N24°25′ (24.4°)
E124°55′ (124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 14 UTC, 8 August>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E124°50′ (124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 August>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N25°00′ (25.0°)
E124°00′ (124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N25°35′ (25.6°)
E123°10′ (123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10′ (26.2°)
E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°50′ (26.8°)
E121°50′ (121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

TAIWAN

2019/08/08 12:00UTC Typhoon LEKIMA (201909) , Center Location 24.50N 124.90E, Movement: NW 18KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 915 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 53m/s, Gust 65m/s, Radius of 15m/s 280km, Radius of 25m/s 100km

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Super Typhoon 10W (Lekima) Warning #18
Issued at 08/0900Z

 

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 019 //
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.4N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 124.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.8N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 26.8N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 27.8N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 29.0N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 32.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 35.1N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 124.5E.
08AUG19. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2019 6:00 GMT

Typhoon LEKIMA is currently located near 23.6 N 125.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). LEKIMA is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LEKIMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 48 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 72 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Taizhou (32.5 N, 119.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nanjing (32.0 N, 118.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Wuhu (31.5 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Xinpu (34.8 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Xiangshui (34.2 N, 119.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Huaiyin (33.5 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Weifang (36.8 N, 119.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 120 hours
    Haiyang (36.8 N, 121.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Qingdao (36.1 N, 120.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Kenli (37.7 N, 118.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Weihai (37.4 N, 122.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Linyi (35.2 N, 118.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Scale) or above winds

 

Probability Scale
Chance of Happening Value Chance of Happening Value
Extremely Low 10% Medium-High 60%
Very Low 20% High 70%
Low 30% Very High 80%
Medium-Low 40% Extremely High 90%
Medium 50% Certain 100%

Note that all probabilities refer to the occurrence of 1-min sustained wind speeds.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP23 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 925 HPA
AT 24.3N 124.9E EAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 25.6N 123.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 26.8N 121.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 28.6N 121.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 33.1N 120.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 35.0N 117.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 33.4N 117.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

Japan>South Korea>North Korea>China>Russia: Typhoon FRANCISCO 09W 05/1600Z 31.5°N 132.2°E, moving WNW 13kt 970hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 05 Aug 2019 1748Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON FRANCISCO 09W 1908

Japan>South Korea>North Korea>China>Russia

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 25 FEET – JTWC

JMA logo

1908-00 JMA TRACK

 

 

TY 1908 (Francisco)
Issued at 16:50 UTC, 5 August 2019

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 5 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N31°30′ (31.5°)
E132°10′ (132.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area NE 110 km (60 NM)
SW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 280 km (150 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N33°00′ (33.0°)
E130°05′ (130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°05′ (35.1°)
E128°25′ (128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 7 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°30′ (39.5°)
E129°20′ (129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N42°10′ (42.2°)
E135°25′ (135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 09W (Francisco) Warning #16
Issued at 05/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
051200Z — NEAR 31.2N 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.2N 133.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 32.7N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 34.8N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 37.1N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 39.3N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 42.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 132.4E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
203 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND
061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANCISCO is currently located near 31.2 N 133.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). FRANCISCO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Scale) or above winds

 

Other

NHK near real-time webcams: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/realtime/rt0001036.html?utm_int=all_contents_realtime_001

NHK Live News Stream (Japanese): https://t.co/wqD71ARYQc

Credit: @BreakingNAgency

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

NONE

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP32 RJTD 051500
WARNING 051500.
WARNING VALID 061500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 970 HPA
AT 31.4N 132.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 33.0N 130.1E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 35.1N 128.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Hawaii/ CentralPacific: Tropical Storm FLOSSIE 07E 04/0900Z 19.1N 146.7W, moving W ~10.7kt 1005mb (CPHC) – Published 04 Aug 2019 1428Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm FLOSSIE 07E

…FLOSSIE EDGING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…CPHC

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…Hawaiian Offshore Waters…NWS Honolulu HI

Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor
the progress of this system this weekend.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

000
WTPA32 PHFO 040838
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072019
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 03 2019

…FLOSSIE EDGING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…19.1N 146.7W
ABOUT 550 MI…885 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 615 MI…990 KM E OF HANA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor
the progress of this system this weekend.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 146.7 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Flossie will move very close to the Hawaiian
Islands Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Flossie
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the main
Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, producing dangerous
surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.

Please consult products from the National Weather Service in
Honolulu for more information.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

NWS Hawaii

Source: https://www.weather.gov/hfo/

Tropical Storm Warning

Offshore Waters Forecast for Hawaii
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1158 PM HST Sat Aug 3 2019

Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240
nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height
of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than
twice the significant wave height.

PHZ180-041630-
Hawaiian Offshore Waters-
1158 PM HST Sat Aug 3 2019

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

.REST OF TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Chance
of thunderstorms.
.SUNDAY…Tropical Storm conditions possible late E waters.
Elsewhere, E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Chance of
thunderstorms.
.SUNDAY NIGHT…Tropical Storm conditions expected E waters.
Elsewhere, E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 14 ft, highest E
waters. Chance of thunderstorms.
.MONDAY…Tropical Storm conditions possible E waters. Elsewhere,
E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft, highest E waters. Chance of
thunderstorms.
.MONDAY NIGHT…E of 160W, E to SE winds 15 to 30 kt. W of 160W, E
winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 11 ft, highest NE waters. Chance of
thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY…E of 160W, E to SE winds 15 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, E
winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft, highest N waters. Chance of
thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY…E of 160W, E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. W of 160W,
variable winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Chance of
thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY…E of 160W, E winds 10 to 20 kt. W of 160W, variable
winds 10 kt or less. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Chance of thunderstorms.

$$

High Surf Warning

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
336 PM HST Sat Aug 3 2019

…ELEVATED SURF FROM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE…

.Swells from Tropical Storm Flossie will cause surf to increase
along east facing shores tonight through Sunday night.

HIZ017-020-024-025-041445-
/O.NEW.PHFO.SU.W.0013.190804T0136Z-190805T1600Z/
Maui Windward West-Windward Haleakala-South Big Island-
Big Island North and East-
336 PM HST Sat Aug 3 2019

…HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY…

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a High Surf
Warning, which is in effect until 6 AM HST Monday.

* SURF…Rising to 8 to 12 feet tonight and 10 to 15 feet Sunday.

* TIMING…Tonight through Sunday night.

* IMPACTS…High…Expect ocean water occasionally sweeping across
portions of beaches, very strong breaking waves, and strong
longshore and rip currents.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Large breaking surf, significant shorebreak, and dangerous
currents make entering the water very hazardous. Anyone entering
the water could face significant injury or death.

&&

$$

High Surf Advisory

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
336 PM HST Sat Aug 3 2019

…ELEVATED SURF FROM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE…

.Swells from Tropical Storm Flossie will cause surf to increase
along east facing shores tonight through Sunday night.

HIZ002-008-009-012-041445-
/O.NEW.PHFO.SU.Y.0037.190804T0136Z-190805T1600Z/
Kauai Windward-Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-
336 PM HST Sat Aug 3 2019

…HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY…

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a High Surf
Advisory, which is in effect until 6 AM HST Monday.

* SURF…Rising to 6 to 10 feet tonight and 8 to 12 feet Sunday

* TIMING…Tonight through Sunday night.

* IMPACTS…Moderate…Expect strong breaking waves, shore break,
and strong longshore and rip currents making swimming difficult
and dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Beachgoers, swimmers, and surfers should heed all advice given by
ocean safety officials and exercise caution.

&&

$$

Burke

Hawaii Area Synopsis

Light to moderate trade winds will continue across the islands under a high pressure ridge far to the north of the state. Shower activity will favor typical windward and mountain areas trending towards the overnight and early morning hours. Tropical Cyclone Flossie will approach from the east from late Sunday night, potentially spreading unsettled weather and elevated humidity levels across the state through the first half of next week.

Updated: 04/08/2019, 07:42 HST


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Probability Scale
Chance of Happening Value Chance of Happening Value
Extremely Low 10% Medium-High 60%
Very Low 20% High 70%
Low 30% Very High 80%
Medium-Low 40% Extremely High 90%
Medium 50% Certain 100%

Note that all probabilities refer to the occurrence of 1-min sustained wind speeds.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

NWS Hawaii

Tropical Storm Warning

Offshore Waters Forecast for Hawaii
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1158 PM HST Sat Aug 3 2019

Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240
nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height
of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than
twice the significant wave height.

PHZ180-041630-
Hawaiian Offshore Waters-
1158 PM HST Sat Aug 3 2019

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

.REST OF TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Chance
of thunderstorms.
.SUNDAY…Tropical Storm conditions possible late E waters.
Elsewhere, E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Chance of
thunderstorms.
.SUNDAY NIGHT…Tropical Storm conditions expected E waters.
Elsewhere, E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 14 ft, highest E
waters. Chance of thunderstorms.
.MONDAY…Tropical Storm conditions possible E waters. Elsewhere,
E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft, highest E waters. Chance of
thunderstorms.
.MONDAY NIGHT…E of 160W, E to SE winds 15 to 30 kt. W of 160W, E
winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 11 ft, highest NE waters. Chance of
thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY…E of 160W, E to SE winds 15 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, E
winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft, highest N waters. Chance of
thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY…E of 160W, E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. W of 160W,
variable winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Chance of
thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY…E of 160W, E winds 10 to 20 kt. W of 160W, variable
winds 10 kt or less. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Chance of thunderstorms.

$$

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII

FZPN02 KWBC 041125
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC SUN AUG 04 2019

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 06.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 55N176W 1010 MB MOVING NW 05 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 59N171W
TO 48N170W TO 39N180W. WITHIN 300 NM NE AND E OF THE FRONT N OF
50N AND 180 NM E AND SE OF THE FRONT S OF 50N…AND WITHIN 120
NM NW OF A FRONT FROM 60N167W TO 58N173W TO THE LOW WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N180W 1012 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
60N166W TO 57N169W TO 48N170W. WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N176E 1015 MB. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 42N154W 1015 MB MOVING SW 10 KT. BETWEEN 240 NM AND 420 NM
NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N157W 1015 MB. BETWEEN 360 NM AND 480 NM
NE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N160W 1017 MB. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS NE OF A LINE FROM 45N128W TO 42N128W TO
32N121W AREA OF NW TO N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NE OF A LINE FROM 42N127W TO 39N127W TO
33N120W AREA OF NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE OF A LINE FROM 38N128W TO 32N119W AREA OF
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 56N TO 59N BETWEEN 144W AND 158W AREA
OF SW TO W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 55N TO 59N BETWEEN 145W AND 158W AREA OF
SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 54N TO 59N BETWEEN 146W AND 155W AREA OF
W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N178W 1010 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 45N TO 57N BETWEEN 168W AND 173W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 48N TO 51N BETWEEN 169W AND
171W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 44N168E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
49N173W TO 47N175W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 44N168E.

.HIGH 53N150W 1035 MB DRIFTING SW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 52N151W 1033 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 51N152W 1033 MB.

.HIGH 32N141W 1024 MB MOVING N 05 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N141W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N142W 1026 MB.

.HIGH 38N169W 1025 MB MOVING SW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N173W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N174W 1018 MB.

.HIGH 43N176E 1018 MB MOVING NE 05 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N178E 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN AUG 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON AUG 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 06.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL NEAR 14.9N 124.4W 1008 MB AT 0900 UTC
AUG 04 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 30 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75
NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL NEAR 15.2N 127.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 60 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW GIL NEAR 15.1N
130.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.

.S OF 01S W OF 105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED
SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE 05N125W TO 05N105W TO 03.4S91W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 07N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0845 UTC SUN AUG 4…

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM N QUADRANT…AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 119W AND
122W.

.TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO 08.5N84W TO 10.5N96W TO 11N126W TO
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N E OF
80W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN
100W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO
13N BETWEEN 109W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 122W AND 140W.

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 04 2019.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 05 2019.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 06 2019.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE NEAR 19.1N 146.7W 1005 MB AT 04/0900
UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR
GREATER WITHIN 80 NM NE AND 70 NM NW QUADRANTS. WINDS 20 TO 33
KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE…150 NM SE…120 NM SW…180 NM NW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 17N BETWEEN
142W AND 152W…AND FROM 17N TO 13N BETWEEN 145W AND 154W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 21N TO 17N BETWEEN 142W AND 147W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE NEAR 19.4N 150.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER
WITHIN 80 NM NE AND 60 NM NW QUADRANTS. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN FROM 23N TO 18N BETWEEN 146W AND 153W. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER FROM 22N TO 19N BETWEEN 149W AND 151W. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 18N BETWEEN 146W AND 154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE NEAR 21.0N 155.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT FROM 25N TO 20N
BETWEEN 152W AND 157W.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL LOW NEAR 22.9N 159.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.

.96 HOUR OUTLOOK LOW DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH
CAUTION DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SEE BULLETIN WTPA22 PHFO ISSUED BY CPHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK NEAR 18.2N 166.3W 1006 MB AT 04/0900
UTC. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WINDS 20 TO 30
KT…SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS FROM 21N TO 18N BETWEEN 160W AND 167W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL LOW NEAR 19.7N 169.3W. MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT…SEAS 8 TO
12 FT FROM 23N TO 20N BETWEEN 165W AND 169W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 22N171W TO
18N173W. ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.
ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDED TO 8 FT OR LOWER.

FORECAST WINDS NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH
CAUTION DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SEE BULLETIN WTPA21 PHFO ISSUED BY CPHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.WEAK FRONT FROM 30N170E TO 29N166E TO 28N161E NEARLY
STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 29N TO 24N BETWEEN 162E
AND 168E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WEAK FRONT FROM 30N170E TO 27N163E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAK FRONT FROM 30N169E TO 28N164E.

.RIDGE FROM 30N147W TO 29N152W MOVING N SLOWLY.

.RIDGE FROM 30N175W TO 26N178E TO 25N170E MOVING N SLOWLY.

.REMAINDER FORECAST AREA…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT OR
LOWER.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO 09N143W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS
E OF 143W BETWEEN 13N AND 07N.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 12N TO 08N W OF 168E.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE S OF 24N W OF 177E…N OF 27N
BETWEEN 177W AND 171E…FROM 15N TO 02N BETWEEN 151W AND
180W…AND FROM 29N TO 24N BETWEEN 154W AND 169W.

$$

.FORECASTER NINETY ONE. HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ Vietnam: Tropical Storm WIPHA 08W 01/1500Z near 21.6°N 109.8°E, moving WNW Slow 990 hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 01 Aug 2019 1815Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm WIPHA 08W 1907

JMA logo

TS 1907 (Wipha)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 1 August 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 1 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N21°35′ (21.6°)
E109°50′ (109.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 560 km (300 NM)
W 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 2 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°30′ (21.5°)
E108°05′ (108.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°25′ (20.4°)
E106°25′ (106.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow

Blue Warning of Typhoon
01-08-2019 Source: National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center continued to release blue warning of typhoon at 6:00 a.m. on August 1.

This year’s 7th Typhoon Wipha (tropical storm scale) landed in coastal regions of Wenchang, Hainan at around 1:50 a.m. on August 1, with the maximum wind intensity of scale 9 (23m/s) at the center and the lowest air pressure of 985 hPa.

It is projected to move north by west direction at the speed of 10 km/h and will make another landfall in Leizhou Peninsula of Guangdong on August 1 (tropical storm scale, scale 8-9. 20-23m/s) and then it will move in Beibu Gulf. From the night of August 1 to the daytime of August 2, it will make landfall again from the coastal regions of Guangxi, China to northern Vietnam.

South China Sea, coastal regions of Guangdong and Hainan Island, coastal regions of Guangxi, Qiongzhou Strait and Beidu Gulf will be exposed to scale 6-7 gale.

Central-southern Guangdong, central-southern Guangxi, southern Fujian, and Hainan Island will be exposed to heavy rain to rainstorm. Heavy downpour (100-200mm) will pound southern Guangdong southern Guangxi, and northwestern Hainan Island. Heavy rain will slam central-eastern Henan, northern Anhui and Jiangsu, western Yunnan, and southern Hebei. (Aug. 1)

3-Day Forecast

01-08-2019Source:National Meteorological Center

It is predicted that from August 1 to 2, central-southern Guangdong, central-southern Guangxi, and Hainan Island will be exposed to heavy rain to rainstorm. Heavy downpour (100-200mm) will pound southern Guangdong southern Guangxi, and northwestern Hainan Island. Heavy rain will slam central-eastern Henan, northern Anhui and Jiangsu, western Yunnan, and southern Hebei. In some regions, there will be severe convective weather like short-range heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, or gale. Scale 5-7 wind will blanket southern South China, and Tianshan Mountain. Scale 8-9 and scale 10 gust will shroud northwestern South China Sea and central-western coastal regions. (Aug.1)

Editor: Liu Shuqiao

HONG KONG

Tropical Storm WIPHA
at 01:00 HKT 02 August 2019

Position: 21.3 N, 109.4 E (about 510 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 85 km/h
Wipha will move across the coast of Guangxi to the vicinity of Beibu Wan today.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 01:00 HKT 02 August 2019

Tropical Cyclone Track at 01:00 HKT 02 August 2019

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
23:00 HKT 02 August 2019 21.3 N 107.7 E Tropical Storm 85 km/h
23:00 HKT 03 August 2019 20.6 N 105.3 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
23:00 HKT 04 August 2019 20.9 N 101.6 E Low Pressure Area 25 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • Tropical cyclones centred within the area bounded by 7-36N and 100-140E will be shown on this website. According to the analysed position of the tropical cyclone and the tropical cyclone warning signal in force, the update time of this webpage and the information shown will be different. Details are listed in the table below:
    Tropical cyclone
    situation
    Tropical Cyclone
    Warning Signal
    No.1 or above
    in force
    No Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal in force
    Tropical cyclones
    centred within the
    area bounded by 10N
    and 30N, 105E and 125E.*
    Other tropical cyclones
    centred within the
    area bounded by 7N
    and 36N,100E and
    140E.
    Update time
    [Observation time]
    (Hong Kong time)
    Every hour
    [Every hour]
     00:30 [23:00]
    03:30 [02:00]
    06:30 [05:00]
    09:30 [08:00]
    12:30 [11:00]
    15:30 [14:00]
    18:30 [17:00]
    21:30 [20:00]
    04:00 [02:00]
    10:00 [08:00]
    16:00 [14:00]
    22:00 [20:00]
    – Track
    – Analysed position
    – Maximum sustained wind near centre
    – Uncertainty of the track
    – Distance and bearing from Hong Kong

    *The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warning for shipping.

  • Tropical Cyclone Warnings
    Bulletin issued at 00:45 HKT 02/Aug/2019  Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

    Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

    The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

    At 1 a.m., Tropical Storm Wipha was estimated to be about 510 kilometres west-southwest of Hong Kong (near 21.3 degrees north 109.4 degrees east) and is forecast to move west or west-northwest at about 12 kilometres per hour across the coast of Guangxi to the vicinity of Beibu Wan.

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 08W (Wipha) Warning #08
Issued at 01/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
011200Z — NEAR 21.3N 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 110.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 21.6N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 21.5N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 21.3N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 21.0N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 109.9E.
01AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM
EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z
AND 021500Z.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Aug, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm WIPHA is currently located near 21.3 N 110.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). WIPHA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

HONG KONG Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Bulletin issued at 00:30 HKT 02/Aug/2019

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 011500 UTC, Tropical Storm Wipha (1907) with central pressure 986 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of two one point three degrees north (21.3 N) one zero nine point six degrees east (109.6 E) and is forecast to move west or west-northwest at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 45 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 180 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 021500 UTC
Two one point three degrees north (21.3 N)
One zero seven point seven degrees east (107.7 E)
Maximum winds 45 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 031500 UTC
Two zero point six degrees north (20.6 N)
One zero five point three degrees east (105.3 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 041500 UTC
Dissipated over land.

======================================================================================

WTJP21 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1907 WIPHA (1907) 990 HPA
AT 21.3N 110.2E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 21.4N 108.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 20.4N 106.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 20.2N 104.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

xxxxx

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