UK: Man rescued from sea after multiple explosions onboard boat 6 miles off Littlehampton – 281113 1435z

A man has been rescued after he abandoned a boat which suffered multiple explosions during a fire.
He had tried fighting the blaze, but abandoned the Margaret Rose six miles off Littlehampton when it become engulfed with flames.
The skipper called 999 and Solent Coastguard coordinated a rescue operation to recover him from his life-raft around10amtoday.
The Coastguard search and rescue helicopter from Lee-on-Solent was deployed, along with RNLI lifeboats from Shoreham and Littlehampton. Littlehampton Coastguard Rescue Team were also on standby.
The man was recovered by the Littlehampton RNLI lifeboat and returned safely to shore. He didnt sustain any injuries.
Shoreham RNLI lifeboat remains on scene to monitor the boat, which is still on fire.
Jenna Smith, Watch Officer for Solent Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre, said: This was a very dangerous situation and required a swift response.
The boat was well alight and very hazardous, as it is carrying around 150 litres of diesel and two gas canisters.
We continue to monitor the situation and have advised boats to stay away from the immediate vicinity of the incident.
Update: 11:55am

Thecasualtywas met and checked over by Littlehampton Coastguard Rescue Team. He had no apparent injuries.

Update: 12:15pm

There are no reports of any pollution.

Update: 1:10pm

TheMargaret Rose has now sunk. MCA

Littlehampton Lifeboat on Facebook:

Littlehamptons RNLI Atlantic 85 Iifeboat Blue Peter 1 launched on service at 9:30am to the motor vessel Margaret Rose which was on fire 8 miles south east of Littlehampton harbour entrance.


The owner had taken to his liferaft and paddled away from the craft and watched with dismay. He was wearing a lifejacket and called for help using his mobile phone.
Littlehampton Lifeboat arrived on scene at 9:49am coinciding with the arrival of the coastguard rescue helicopter. The lifeboat crew found that the sole occupant of the fishing boat had successfully launched and climbed aboard his liferaft. The survivor was unharmed, and was recovered from the liferaft by the lifeboat crew and returned to the lifeboat station. Shoreham Lifeboat remained on scene and stood by the burning wreck, which has subsequently sunk.Our photos (G: top & below) taken by the lifeboat crew show the burning boat as the lifeboat approached, and the liferaft as it is recovered ashore, photo by Eddie Mitchell. (All photos credit: RNLI)

Related:

RNLI | Goaty’s News

Bahamas: Up to 30 Haitian migrants drown after sinking, over 100 others rescued – 281113 1258z

Haitian migrants drown after sinking in the Bahamas

BBC 27 November 2013 Last updated at 02:17Z (GMT/UTC)

Up to 30 migrants from Haiti have drowned after a vessel ran aground and capsized.

The US Coast Guard said over 100 people has been rescued from the overturned boat near Staniel Cay in the Bahamas.

Babita Sharma reports.

North Atlantic: Tropical Storm MELISSA 201500Z nr 35.6N 47.7W, moving ENE at 26 knots – 201113 1540z

Tropical Storm MELISSA

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

WTNT34 KNHC 201434
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013

…MELISSA ACQUIRES TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…35.6N 47.7W
ABOUT 1155 MI…1860 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH…48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB…29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MELISSA HAS MADE A TRANSITION TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS…AND AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST.
MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH…48
KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS…BUT MELISSA SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB…29.18 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…LARGE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA…
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…
HISPANIOLA TODAY…CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

MARITIME

Graphicast Atlantic

(Image: NHC) Graphicast Atlantic

AXNT20 KNHC 201203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURE…

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA AT 20/0900 UTC IS NEAR
34.8N 50.2W…ABOUT 1380 KM/745 NM…TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. MELISSA IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. LARGE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA…SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…HISPANIOLA…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED STRONG FROM 34N TO 36N
BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC…FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N51W 24N51W 18N62W…INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N63W…BEYOND 8N67W IN
VENEZUELA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF 32N43W 17N50W 9N60W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS STREAMING FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA…BEYOND 17N54W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 5N49W 13N47W
24N41W BEYOND 32N39W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N51W 25N53W
23N55W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N53W 16N55W 12N57W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W…AND WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N48W 26N46W BEYOND 32N42W.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 8N13W TO
7N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N15W TO 5N20W 6N23W 4N30W 3N38W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 5N20W 4N30W 3N31W 6N37W 10N45W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE
EAST OF 60W.

…DISCUSSION…

THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EL SALVADOR…
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA…SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA…BEYOND 32N77W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 34N55W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 29N70W AND 28N77W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 28N77W TO 28N81W 26N87W AND 26N94W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N. A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH IS ALONG 27N98W 19N93W
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE TO
THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 25N85W…TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA…TO 17N87W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE TO
THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 88W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 30N60W 27N70W
25N75W TO 25N81W IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W…

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS…KMZG…KBBF…KBQX…KVAF…KEMK…KGUL…KMDJ…AND
CLEARING SKIES AT KDLP. MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS KGUL…KEHC…AND KGBK. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
AT THE REST OF THE ICAO STATIONS.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM MARY ESTHER TO
VALPARAISO AND TO DESTIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM APALACHICOLA TOWARD MARIANNA
BETWEEN TALLAHASSEE AND PANAMA CITY. A HIGH CEILING COVERS
PERRY. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM
BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA TO SARASOTA TO PUNTA
GORDA. THE VISIBILITIES ARE ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE
FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA.

…HISPANIOLA…

LARGE SWELLS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT HISPANIOLA…PUERTO RICO…SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS…CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N73W IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
HAITI…ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI…TO 17N75W AND TO 15N77W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH THAT IS PART OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR…APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY…ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES FOR THE ENTIRE TIME. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE ENTIRE TIME. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL START WITH WEAK TO SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…UNTIL THE LAST 6 HOURS OR
SO WHEN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW RETURNS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN
NICARAGUA…THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA…ACROSS WESTERN CUBA…SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS…BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 14N80W
15N82W 17N84W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N85W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO…TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA…TO 17N87W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE TO
THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
17N64W 15N67W 13N68W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 75W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND SUBTROPICAL STORM
MELISSA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N23W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 4N TO 23N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27W…TO 28N32W 25N37W 19N46W AND 12N50W. THIS
RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N67W…BETWEEN THE 32N63W 29N70W
28N77W COLD FRONT THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST…AND TWO TROUGHS…
ONE ALONG 28N51W 25N53W 23N55W AND THE SECOND ONE ALONG 19N53W
16N55W 12N57W…THAT ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC…FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 41W AND 56W…EXCEPT 14 TO 21
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. A THIRD AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO
11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W TO LINE FROM 31N36W TO
17N55W TO 17N62W. A FOURTH AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 28N77W THEN STATIONARY TO 28N81W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W. A FIFTH AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 13N TO 22N
TO THE EAST OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)

000
FZNT02 KNHC 200938
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC WED NOV 20 2013

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC WED NOV 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU NOV 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI NOV 22.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 41W AND 56W W TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL W OF 50W AND SW SWELL E OF 50W
…EXCEPT 14 TO 21 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. ELSEWHERE E
OF 70W TO LINE FROM 31N36W TO 17N55W TO 17N62W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 30N E OF 40W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 26N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 28N77W THEN STATIONARY TO
28N81W. N OF 27N W OF 70W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N54W TO 28N67W THEN
STATIONARY TO 27N77W. N OF 27N E OF 63W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N39W TO 26N65W THEN
STATIONARY TO 26N77W. WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM
27N65W TO 30N80W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
N OF 29N BETWEEN 49W AND 61W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT
IN NW SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 13N TO 22N E OF 38W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 17N E OF 41W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$

EFFECTIVE 3 DECEMBER 2013 AT 1800 UTC…THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
AREA IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
SMALL TRIANGULAR AREA FROM 07N48W TO THE EAST COAST BOUNDARY OF
SURINAME. THE DESCRIPTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE FORECAST TEXT
WILL NOT CHANGE.

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

Portuguese (Translated by Google)

Tempestade tropical MELISSA 201500Z nr 35.6N 47.7W , movendo-se em ENE 26 ns – 201.113 1540z

Tempestade Tropical MELISSA

(Imagem: wunderground.com ) Previsão para 5 dias (Clique na imagem para a fonte )

(Imagem: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( Clique na imagem para fonte )

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Imagem da previsão de 5 dias e reas costeiras sob uma advertência ou um relgio ]
(Imagem: NHC ) Relgios / Avisos Costeiros e 5 dias Cone Previsão para Storm Center (Clique na imagem para a fonte )

WTNT34 KNHC 201434
TCPAT4

BOLETIM
Tempestade tropical MELISSA CONSULTIVO nmero 9
NWS Centro Nacional de Furacões MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST WED 20 de novembro de 2013

MELISSA … ADQUIRE A tempestade tropical STATUS como ele se move rapidamente ao longo
ATLNTICO NORTE …

RESUMO DE 1100 AM AST … 1500 UTC … Informaão
———————————————–
LOCALIZAÃO … 35.6N 47.7W
SOBRE 1155 MI … 1860 KM W DOS AORES
MXIMO ventos … 60 mph … 95 km / h
MOVIMENTO DE PRESENTE … ENE ou 60 graus a 30 mph … 48 KM / H
Pressão mnima CENTRAL … 988 MB … 29,18 POLEGADAS

RELGIOS E AVISOS
——————–
NÃO EXISTEM RELGIOS LITORAL ou avisos em vigor.

DISCUSSÃO E PERSPECTIVAS 48 HORAS
——————————
IMAGENS de satlite indicam que a Melissa fez uma transião TO
Tempestade tropical STATUS … e no AST AM 1100 … 1500 … UTC CENTRO
Foi localizado perto LATITUDE 35,6 NORTE … LONGITUDE 47,7 WEST.
MELISSA est se movendo para leste-nordeste NEAR 30 MPH … 48
KM / H…AND ESTE MOVIMENTO GERAL dever continuar DURANTE O
Prximo par de dias .

Ventos mximos são NEAR 60 MPH … 95 KM / H…WITH SUPERIOR
RAJADAS. Pouca mudana na fora PREVISTA durante os prximos 12 TO
24 HORAS … mas MELISSA deve comear a perder as caractersticas tropicais
Depois disso.

Ventos com fora de tempestade tropical se estendem para fora at 205 milhas … 335 KM
Partir do centro.

A estimativa de pressão central mnima de 988 MB … 29,18 polegadas.

Riscos que afectam LAND
———————-
SURF … Grande SWELLS provavelmente vai continuar a afectar BERMUDA …
PARTES das ilhas Leeward … PUERTO RICO …
HISPANIOLA HOJE … CAUSANDO SURF ameaam a vida e correntes de retorno .
CONSULTE DECLARAÕES DO SEU LOCAL DO TEMPO DE SERVIO PARA ESCRITRIO
MAIS DETALHES.

PRXIMO CONSULTIVO
————-
PRXIMO COMPLETA ASSESSORIA … 500 PM AST .

$ $
PREVISÃO DE AVILA
MARTIMA

Graphicast Atlntico
(Imagem: NHC ) Graphicast Atlntico

AXNT20 KNHC 201203
TWDAT

TROPICAL DISCUSSÃO DO TEMPO
NWS Centro Nacional de Furacões MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 20 de novembro de 2013

TROPICAL DISCUSSÃO DO TEMPO PARA AMRICA DO NORTE CENTRAL …
AMRICA … GULF OF MEXICO … CARIBE SEA … seões do norte
AMRICA DO SUL … E OCEANO ATLNTICO AO COSTA DO AFRICANO
Equador 32N . A SEGUINTE INFORMAÃO BASEADA NO SATLITE
OBSERVAÕES IMAGERY … TEMPO … RADAR … e meteorolgicos
ANLISE .

BASEADO EM 0600 UTC anlise de superfcie e imagens de satlite atravs de
1115 UTC .

RECURSO ESPECIAL … …

CENTRO DA TEMPESTADE SUBTROPICAL MELISSA EM 20/ 0900 UTC EST PRXIMO
34.8N 50.2W … sobre 1380 KM/745 NM … para o leste -nordeste
BERMUDA . MELISSA MOVE nordeste de 20 ns . A estimativa de
Pressão central mnima de 988 MB. O vento sustentado MXIMA
As velocidades são 45 ns , com rajadas at 55 ns. Avisos PBLICAS SOBRE
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA são emitidas ao abrigo WMO HEADER WTNT34
KNHC E SOB AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4 . Previsões / conselhos no
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA são emitidas ao abrigo WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC E SOB AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4 . SWELLS grandes serão
Continuam a afetar BERMUDA … Seões do Leeward
ILHAS … PUERTO RICO … HISPANIOLA … e no sudeste
BAHAMAS durante o prximo par de dias … CAUSANDO LIFE-
RISCO DE SURF E correntes de retorno . CONSULTE DEMONSTRAÕES
LOCAL DO SEU TEMPO servio de escritrio para mais detalhes.
Precipitaão convectiva … DISPERSADO FORTE DE 34N 36N TO
ENTRE 49W E 51W . Dispersos MODERADO PARA ISOLADA
FORTE DE 31N 34N TO ENTRE 47W E 51W .

POR FAVOR, LEIA O ALTO MAR FORECAST…MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC … FOR
MAIS DETALHES SOBRE OS VENTOS e alturas MAR que acompanham
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA.

A NVEL MDIO PARA NVEL SUPERIOR CALHA EST NO OCEANO ATLNTICO
ATRAVS 32N50W TO 27N51W 24N51W 18N62W … NO SUDESTE
CANTO DO CARIBE mar perto 13N63W … ALM 8N67W IN
VENEZUELA . CYCLONIC fluxo de vento cobre o Oceano Atlntico a
OESTE DE 32N43W 17N50W 9N60W . Nvel Superior sudoeste fluxo de vento
Est fluindo do centro VENEZUELA … ALM 17N54W NA
OCEANO ATLNTICO . Uma crista de nvel superior ao longo 5N49W 13N47W
24N41W ALM 32N39W . Uma superfcie CALHA ao longo 28N51W 25N53W
23N55W . A CALHA segunda superfcie ao longo 19N53W 16N55W 12N57W .
Precipitaão convectiva … dispersa MODERADO PARA ISOLADA
FORTE DE 9N TO 20N ENTRE 45W E 60W … e at 150 NM ON
CADA LADO DE 20N48W 26N46W ALM 32N42W .

… A ZCIT / A cavado de monão …

O cavado de monão atravessa COSTEIRA GUIN PERTO 8N13W TO
7N15W . A ZCIT continua a partir 7N15W TO 5N20W 6N23W 4N30W 3N38W .
Precipitaão convectiva … DISPERSADO a inmeras forte dentro
90 NM de cada lado da 6N11W 5N20W 4N30W 3N31W 6N37W 10N45W .
Rainshowers SÃO possveis fora AO SUL DE 10N AO
LESTE DE 60W .

DISCUSSÃO … …

O Golfo do Mxico …

A NVEL MDIO PARA NVEL SUPERIOR RIDGE estende desde EL SALVADOR …
Atravs do canto noroeste do Mar do Caribe … ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA … sudeste da Flrida … ALM 32N77W NA
OCEANO ATLNTICO . Nvel mdio para nvel superior, sudoeste TO
WESTERLY fluxo de vento cobre o Golfo do Mxico.

A base de um nvel mdio para ATINGE NVEL SUPERIOR CALHA 34N55W
No Oceano Atlntico . A CALHA suporta uma frente fria QUE
PASSA ATRAVS 32N63W TO 29N70W E 28N77W . Uma frente estacionria
Continua a partir 28N77W TO 28N81W 26N87W E 26N94W . CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITAÃO … QUEBRADO a nuvens de vrias camadas nublado e
Rainshowers POSSVEIS estão em outro lugar ao norte do 24N . A
CALHA ORIENTADO NOROESTE -TO -sudeste ao longo 27N98W 19N93W
Do sul profundo do Texas para o canto sudoeste do
Golfo do Mxico. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITAÃO … isolado MODERADO PARA
SUL DO 27N a oeste do 90W . A CALHA SUPERFCIE segundo
AO LONGO 25N85W … para o canto nordeste do Yucatn
PENNSULA … TO 17N87W no canto noroeste DA
CARIBE SEA . CONVECTIVE PRECIPITAÃO … isolado MODERADO PARA
SUL DO 26N a leste do 88W . A CALHA terceira superfcie FUNCIONA
DO BAHAMAS norte da Florida Keys. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITAÃO … AO NORTE DA LINHA DE 30N60W 27N70W
25N75W TO 25N81W em Florida Keys .

A RIDGE SUPERFCIE PASSA ATRAVS DO NORTE LOUISIANA EM CENTRAL
TEXAS .

PARA OS SITES OFFSHORE Oil Platform QUE ESTÃO AO NORTE DE 27N
A oeste de 88W …

LIMITES DA NUVEM LOW são observadas nos seguintes ICAO
ESTAÕES … KMZG … KBBF … KBQX … KVAF … KEMK … KGUL … KMDJ … E
LIMPANDO SKIES AT KDLP . TETOS nvel mdio estão sendo observados
No seguinte ICAO ESTAÕES KGUL … KEHC … E KGBK . FAIR
SKIES / cu claro AT ou inferior a 12 mil ps estão sendo relatados
Para o resto das estaões da ICAO.

LIMITES DA NUVEM baixa cobertura THE TEXAS Plancie Costeira DO
HOUSTON REA METROPOLITANA sul para sul profundo dos TEXAS .
LIMITES DA NUVEM vrias camadas cobrem a rea de Mary Esther
VALPARAISO E a Destin no Panhandle da Flrida . CLOUD LOW
LIMITES DA REA DE COBERTURA PARA APALACHICOLA MARIANNA
ENTRE Tallahassee e Cidade do Panam. A ALTA coberturas
PERRY . LIMITES DA NUVEM vrias camadas cobrem a rea DE
BROOKSVILLE TO THE METROPOLITAN rea de Tampa para Sarasota PARA PUNTA
GORDA . OS visibilidades SOMOS UM MILE OU MENOS COM NVOA NA
FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA.

HISPANIOLA … …

GRANDES SWELLS de subtropical STORM MELISSA CONTINUAR
AFETAR HISPANIOLA … PUERTO RICO … Seões do NORTE
Ilhas Leeward … e as Bahamas SOUTHEASTERN durante a prxima
Par de dias … CAUSANDO SURF ameaam a vida e correntes de retorno .
CONSULTE DEMONSTRAÕES DE SEU LOCAL Servio Meteorolgico
ESCRITRIO para mais detalhes.

A CALHA SUPERFCIE ao longo 19N73W NAS SEÕES DOS OCIDENTAIS
HAITI … ATRAVS DO SUDOESTE HAITI … TO 17N75W E PARA 15N77W .
Precipitaão convectiva … MODERADO isoladas de 13N 20N TO
, Entre 70 e 80W .

Nvel mdio para nvel superior noroeste FLUXO DE VENTO EST EM MOVIMENTO
ACROSS HISPANIOLA . Este fluxo de vento RELACIONADA AO CYCLONIC
Fluxo de vento que est se movendo EM TORNO DA CALHA QUE PARTE DO
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA. Comparativamente secador de ar … aparentes na
Vapor d’gua imagens de satlite … tambm cobre HISPANIOLA .
Dispersos para BAIXO NVEL quebrado e nuvens mdias nvel e
Rainshowers possvel, abranger HISPANIOLA .

A previsão GFS para 250 MB MOSTRA QUE fluxo de vento noroeste
Vai passar TOP de Hispaniola DURANTE nas prximas 48 horas . A
CALHA vai cortar todo o canto nordeste do CARIBE
Mar para as Antilhas holandesas para o tempo todo. O GFS
PREVISÃO PARA 500 ​​MB MOSTRA QUE fluxo de vento norte vai passar
TOP de Hispaniola PARA OS PRXIMOS 48 horas. AN anticyclonic
CENTRO DE CIRCULAÃO estar no canto noroeste DA
CARIBE SEA durante todo o tempo . A previsão GFS para 700 MB
Mostra que HISPANIOLA vai comear com fraco para LIGEIRAMENTE
Anticyclonic fluxo de vento para os primeiros 12 a 18 horas . CYCLONIC
FLUXO DE VENTO COM UMA CALHA INVERTED cobrir a AREA PARA MAIS
Do resto do perodo de previsão … at o ltimo 6 horas ou
Então, quando Anticyclonic VENTO RETORNOS DE FLUXO .

O RESTO DO CARIBE SEA …

A NVEL MDIO PARA NVEL SUPERIOR RIDGE estende desde WESTERN
NICARGUA … atravs do canto noroeste da CARIBE
MAR … ACROSS WESTERN CUBA … Florida do sudeste e
BAHAMAS … ALM 32N76W NO OCEANO ATLNTICO .

Uma superfcie CALHA NO OESTE DO CARIBE mar ao longo 14N80W
15N82W 17N84W . A CALHA segunda superfcie ao longo 25N85W NA
GULF OF MEXICO … para o canto nordeste do Yucatn
PENNSULA … TO 17N87W no canto noroeste DA
CARIBE SEA . CONVECTIVE PRECIPITAÃO … isolado MODERADO PARA
NORTE DE 16N a oeste do 80W .

A CALHA SUPERFCIE terceiro no leste do mar ao longo CARIBE
17N64W 15N67W 13N68W . Espalhados por nuvens baixas quebrado e
Rainshowers possveis são de 13N 20N TO ENTRE 56W E 70W IN
OCEANO ATLNTICO E no Mar do Caribe .

Nvel mdio para nvel superior CYCLONIC fluxo de vento cobre a rea
O QUE A leste de 75W . O fluxo de vento CYCLONIC EST ASSOCIADA
COM O FLUXO vento que est se movendo tempestade subtropical
MELISSA NO OCEANO ATLNTICO . Nvel mdio para nvel superior
Anticyclonic fluxo de vento cobre o Mar do Caribe que est à
OESTE DE 75W .

O RESTO DO ATLNTICO …

Um nvel mdio para nvel superior CENTER circulaão ciclnica IS
NEAR 17N23W apenas a leste DO CABO VERDE ILHAS . CYCLONIC
Fluxo de vento cobre a rea DE 4N TO 23N ENTRE 10W E 40W .

A RIDGE SUPERFCIE passa por um MB CENTRO DE ALTA PRESSÃO 1026
Que est perto 32N27W … TO 28N32W 25N37W 19N46W E 12N50W . ESTE
Ridge a leste do SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA.

SUPERFCIE Anticyclonic vento move o fluxo em torno A 1015 MB ALTA
Centro de pressão que est perto 27N67W … ENTRE O 32N63W 29N70W
28N77W frente fria que est à NOROESTE … E DUAS COCHOS …
Um ao longo 28N51W 25N53W 23N55W eo segundo AO LONGO 19N53W
16N55W 12N57W … que estão a leste e sudeste .

POR FAVOR, LEIA O ALTO MAR FORECAST…MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC … FOR
MAIS DETALHES SOBRE OS VENTOS e alturas MAR que acompanham
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA. Uma segunda rea de interesse consiste
Ocidente para ventos sudoeste 20 a 30 ns e as alturas MAR 10 a 15
PS para o norte do 27N ENTRE 41W E 56W … exceto de 14 a 21
PS para o norte do 29N ENTRE 47W E 54W . A REA DE TERCEIRO
JUROS CONSISTE DE VENTOS 20 ns ou menos, e MAR ALTURAS 8 a
11 ps ELSEWHERE a leste do 70W para a linha DE 31N36W TO
17N55W TO 17N62W . A REA DE QUARTO DE JUROS CONSISTE EM UM FRIO
FRENTE DE 31N65W TO 28N77W ENTÃO estacionrio.Estes 28N81W . ESPERAR
VENTOS 20 ns ou menos, e MAR ALTURAS 8 a 10 ps para o Norte
DE 27N a oeste do 70W . A REA DE QUINTA DE JUROS CONSISTE EM
PS ventos de 20 ns ou menos, e MAR ALTURA DE 8 PARA 13N 22N
A leste do 38W .

PARA OBTER MAIS INFORMAÕES VISITE
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV / MARINE

High Seas Forecast ( Tropical Atlantic )

000
FZNT02 KNHC 200938
HSFAT2

ALTO MAR PREVISÃO
NWS Centro Nacional de Furacões MIAMI FL
1030 UTC WED 20 de novembro de 2013

SEAS DADAS tão significativo da altura das ondas … que a mdia
ALTURA DO MAIOR 1/3 das ondas. ONDAS individuais podem ser
Mais do dobro da altura significativa de vaga .

scurit

ATLANTIC DE 07N 31N TO W 35W INCLUSIVE DE MAR E CARIBE
GOLFO DO MXICO

SINOPSE VLIDO 0600 UTC Qua Nov 20.
24 HORAS Previsão vlida 0600 UTC qui 21 de novembro .
Previsão vlida de 48 horas UTC 0600 sex 22 de novembro .

. Avisos.

. NONE.

. Sinopse e previsão.

. ATLC N DE ENTRE 27N 41W E 56W W para SW ventos de 20 a 30 KT .
SEAS 10 a 15 ps de NW W SWELL DE 50W E SW SWELL E DE 50W
EXCETO … 14 a 21 FT N DE ENTRE 29N 47W E 54W . E em outros lugares
DE 70W PARA LINHA DE 31N36W TO 17N55W TO 17N62W VENTOS 20 KT OR
MENOS . SEAS 8 a 11 FT principalmente no NE inchar.
0,24 HORA DE PREVISÃO N 30N E DE 40W SW ventos de 20 a 25 KT . SEAS 8
A 10 FT . ELSEWHERE N de 26N ENTRE 36W E 50W VENTOS 20 KT OR
MENOS . SEAS 8 a 11 FT principalmente em SWELL NW .
0,48 HOUR PREVISÃO ventos de 20 KT ou menos. SEAS menos de 8 FT .

. ATLC FRENTE FRIA DE 31N65W TO 28N77W ENTÃO estacionrio.Estes
28N81W . N DE 27N W 70W VENTOS DE 20 KT ou menos. SEAS 8 a 10 ps
IN NE inchar.
0,24 HORA DE PREVISÃO DE FRENTE FRIA 31N54W TO 28N67W ENTÃO
Estacionrio para 27N77W . N DE 27N E VENTOS DE 63W 20 KT ou menos.
SEAS 8 a 10 ps no NE inchar.
0,48 HORA DE PREVISÃO DE FRENTE FRIA 31N39W TO 26N65W ENTÃO
Estacionrio para 26N77W . No prazo de 120 NM ambos os lados da linha do
27N65W TO 30N80W VENTOS 20 KT ou menos. SEAS a 9 ps no NE inchar.
N DE ENTRE 29N 49W E 61W VENTOS 20 KT ou menos. SEAS a 9 ps
IN SWELL NW .

. ATLC DE 13N 22N E PARA DE 38W VENTOS 20 KT ou menos. SEAS 8 m de
NE inchar.
0,24 HORA DE PREVISÃO PARA 10N 17N E VENTOS DE 41W 20 KT ou menos.
SEAS 8 ps de NE inchar.
0,36 HOUR PREVISÃO ventos de 20 KT ou menos. SEAS menos de 8 FT .

. RESTANTE DOS VENTOS DA REA 20 KT ou menos. SEAS menos de 8 FT .

$ $

VIGÊNCIA 03 de dezembro de 2013 a 1800 UTC … ALTO MAR PREVISÃO
rea no Atlntico tropical ser expandido para incluir os
rea triangular PEQUENO DE 07N48W AO LIMITE DA COSTA LESTE
SURINAME . A descrião da rea dentro do texto PREVISÃO
Não vai mudar.

. FORECASTER SCHAUER . Centro Nacional de Furacões

India/Bay of Bengal: Depression(IMD)/Tropical Cyclone 4B HELEN 192100Z nr 15.1N 83.9E, moving W at 7 knots (JTWC)

CYCLONIC STORM HELEN (RSMC NEW DELHI)

Tropical Cyclone 04B (HELEN)(JTWC)

Up to 10.1 million people people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above. In addition, 1.3 million people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge. - GDACS

“(Helen) forecast to make landfall as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with winds gusting up to 120kph. Or about the equivalent of Typhoon Strength Gust.” – Westernpacificweather

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM HELEN ADVISORY NO. TWO ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF
20TH NOVEMBER 2013 BASED ON 0600UTC CHARTS of 20TH NOVEMBER 2013.

THE CYCLONIC STORM HELEN OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 6 HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 20
TH
NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 15.2
0
N AND LONGITUDE 84.0
0
E, ABOUT 470 KM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279), 430 KM EAST OF KAVALI (43243), 320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MACHILIPATNAM (43185) AND 290 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149).
THE SYSTEM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME, THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND CROSS SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN SRIHARIKOTA
(ANDHRA PRADESH) AND ONGOLE (43221), CLOSE TO KAVALI AROUND NIGHT OF 21
ST
NOVEMBER 2013.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.5.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUD EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT 13.5
0
N AND 18.0
0
N LONG 82.0
0
E AND
86.0
0
E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -80
0
C.CONVECTIVE BANDING
IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTRE HAS ORGANISED AND CONSOLIDATED FURTHER DURING PAST 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.
T
RACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/Time(UTC)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ long.
0
E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
20
-11-2013/0600
15.2/84.0
70-80 GUSTING TO 90
CYCLONIC STORM
20
-11-2013/1200
15.4/83.5
75-85 GUSTING TO 95
CYCLONIC STORM
20
-11-2013/1800
15.4/83.0
85-95 GUSTING TO 105
CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/0000
15.2/82.5
90-100 GUSTING TO 110
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/0600
15.0/82.0
95-105 GUSTING TO 115
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/1800
14.8/80.8
100-110 GUSTING TO 120
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
22
-11-2013/0600
14.7/79.5
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
22
-11-2013/1800
14.6/78.2
55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
23-11-2013/060
0
14.5/77.0
40-50 GUSTING TO 60
DEPRESSION
REMARKS:
THE SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED BY DWR- MACHILIPATNAM, VISAKHAPATNAM
AND CHENNAI. ACCORDING TO THESE RADARS, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N AND
84.0E AT 0600 UTC. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS NEAR 13.5N AND 84.0E SHOW MSLP OF 1007.3
HPA AND WINDS OF 270/16 KTS.
THE CYCLONIC STORM HELEN LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE WHICH RUNS ALONG 17
0
N. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONGWITH LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE VORTICITY ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THEY HAVE INCREASED
DURING PAST 12 HRS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 28-29
0
C. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS LOW TO MODERATE (05-15 KNOTS).
DIVERGENCE IN NWP MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO LANDFALL
POINT AND TIME, AS THE TRACK FORECAST VARIES FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. WITH RESPECT TO INTENSIFICATION, THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS SUGGESTING
SLOW INTENSIFICATION OR NO INTENSIFICATION. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON
CONSENSUS NWP AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.NSUS NWP AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0413.gif

 

WTIO31 PGTW 200900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
200600Z — NEAR 15.3N 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 84.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 15.5N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 15.7N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 15.8N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 15.8N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 15.7N 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT AMSU-B
PASSES (200409Z AND 200733Z) INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
THE LLCC AND WITHIN THE MAIN FEEDER BAND TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASSES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PGTW CENTER FIX LOCATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AND PERSISTENCE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HELEN
IS LOCATED NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE AT 15-20 KNOTS. DIVERGENCE IS CONTAINED IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION AS OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
PROVIDES THE LARGEST SOURCE OF EXHAUST. TC HELEN HAS MAINTAINED SLOW
TRACK SPEEDS DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS AS IT MEANDERS NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THESE SLOW TRACK SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK WITHIN
THE WEAKNESS. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND STEER TC HELEN ON A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK AFTER
TAU 24. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 IS EXPECTED AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BATTLES THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS
BUT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DROP-OFF BY TAU 36 AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIFURCATION AMONGST
MODEL TRACKERS WITH THE WEAKER VORTEX CLUSTER (ECMF, NVGM, GFDN,
EGRR) TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE STRONGER VORTEX CLUSTER (AVNO,
HWRF, CTCX) TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS BASED ON LAST 18 HOUR PERSISTENCE OF
SLOW TRACK SPEEDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE TIMING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY NOW FAVORS THE TRACKERS THAT
DEPICT A STRONGER VORTEX AND SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKERS, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoN Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 20 Nov, 2013 6:00 GMT

 

 

Tropical Storm HELEN (04B) currently located near 15.3 N 84.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

https://i0.wp.com/old.gdacs.org/images/gdacs_logo_small.png

 

Automatic impact report for tropical cyclone HELEN-13

alertimage

Green alert for wind impact in India

This tropical cyclone is expected to have a low humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.

 

Current storm status

 

This report is for advisory number 4 of tropical cyclone HELEN-13 issued at 11/20/2013 6:00:00 AM (GDACS Event ID 41389, Latest episode ID: 4).

 

Current impact estimate:

 

  • Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0
  • Tropical Storm (maximum wind speed of 111 km/h)
  • Vulnerability of affected countries: High

 

Impact of Extreme Wind

 

Cloud map
Cloud map. The map shows the areas affected by tropical storm strength winds (green), 58mph winds (orange) and cyclone wind strengths (red). (Source: JRC)

Affected population

Up to 10.1 million people people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above. In addition, 1.3 million people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

Affected provinces

Country Region/Province Population
India Andhra Pradesh 70.2 million people
India Pondicherry 850000 people

Affected cities

Name Region/Province Country City class Population
Kandukur Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Bhimavaram Andhra Pradesh India City 130000 people
Narasapur Andhra Pradesh India City 59000 people
Gudivada Andhra Pradesh India City 7200 people
Guntur Andhra Pradesh India City 510000 people
Tenali Andhra Pradesh India City 150000 people
Narasaropet Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Machilipatnam Andhra Pradesh India City 180000 people
Bapatla Andhra Pradesh India City 68000 people
Nizampatam Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Chirala Andhra Pradesh India City 86000 people
Ongole Andhra Pradesh India City 170000 people
Kottapatnam Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

See complete report

 

WesternPacificWeather.com

“The western pacific may be quite but Cyclone Helen has now formed over the bay of Bengal. It is forecasted to make landfall as a severe Cyclonic storm with winds gusting up to 120kph. Or about the equivalent of Typhoon Strength Gust.” – Westernpacificweather

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0134

WTIN01 DEMS 200134
SHIPPING BULLETINE FOR MET. AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HRS FROM 0100 UTC OF 20-11-2013.
—————————————————————
THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IT FURTHER MOVED WESTWARD AND
LAY CENTRED AT 2330 HRS IST OF 19TH NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 N AND LONGITUDE 84.5 E(.)
THE SYSTEM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM
DURING NEXT 24 HRS. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME
TIME, THEN WESTSOUTHWESTWARD (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

 

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Tamil Nadu

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry

High wind waves in the range of 2.5 – 3 meters are predicted during 02:30 hrs on 19-11-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 20-11-2013 along the Kolacahl to kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :19/11/2013 Region : Andhra Pradesh

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Vizag

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m 4.0m) off Andhra Pradesh coast (Nellore to Srikakulam) during 1730 hrs of 19-11-2013 To 2330 hrs of 21-11-2013. At the Amalapuram coast, the maximum waves (nearly 4 ) Would be experienced during 21-11-2013, 1730 hrs.

Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh commencing from 20st November 2013 night.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from 20th November 2013 night.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Sea off Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen out at sea off Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to return to the coast.

Tide Predictions

Vishakapatnam

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Andaman

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Portblair

High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along the west coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.

Tide Predictions

Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Kerala

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Kozhikode

High wind waves in the range of 2.5 3.0 meters are forecasted during 0230 hours on 19-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 20-11-2013 along the Kerala coast between Vilinjam to Kasargod.
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Vizhinjam

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Lakshadweep

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Agatti

High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Minicoy

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :19/11/2013 Region : Tamil Nadu

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 3.0m) off Puducheery aand Tamil Nadu coasts (Nagapattinam to Chennai) during 1730 hrs of 19-11-2013 to 2330 hrs of 21-11-2013.

Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu commencing from 20st November 2013 night.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu coast commencing from 20th November 2013 night.

Fishermen along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast are advised to be cautious while going into sea.

Tide Predictions

Pondichery

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Nicobar
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along the west coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.

null

Tide Predictions

Car-Nicobar

images
AVHRR Image

 

 

UK: Have you seen 78 year old Joan Russell still missing from Exeter, Devon – 191113 1640z

Police in Exeter are continuing to search for a 78-year-old woman who has not been seen since 9.30pm on Friday 15 November.


Joan Russell was last seen at her home address in the Emmanuel Close area of Exeter. Because of her age and her condition she is considered vulnerable and police are concerned for her welfare.

Joan has limited mobility and walks with the aid of a walking stick. The stick was left behind as well as her money, medication, bus pass and other personal belongings.

She is believed to be wearing a grey skirt and a green light weight jacket. She is about 5ft 4ins and has grey wavy hair to her ears.

It is believed she may be in the St Thomas or Exwick area of the city.

If anyone believes they have seen her or has any information that could assist, please call police on 101 quoting log 261 of 16/11/13.

UK: 3 launches in 3 days for Lizard lifeboat – 191113 1605z

Falmouth Packet

The Lizard lifeboat has launched three times in as many days to assist yachts in difficulties off Lizard Point.

On Tuesday, November 12 at 8:30am The Lizard lifeboat was launched to a lone sailor onboard Yacht Quintess 2 on passage from Brixham to Ireland that required assistance after the yachts sails were blown out and the vessels engine stopped working.

The yachts occupant had broadcast a Mayday call the night before but was unable to broadcast his position before all the electrics failed. The yacht was left bobbing around overnight before being located by a fishing vessel three miles south west of Lizard Point.

Falmouth Coastguard was contacted and The Lizard lifeboat was launched to rescue the yacht. The yacht was then towed to Falmouth Harbour. The Lifeboat returned to station at 1:00pm.

(Video credit: RNLI) A yacht that had damaged its rigging and had problems with its engine was helped by The Lizard lifeboat. The yacht, with one person on board, was towed safely back to Falmouth.

At 5:30pm the same evening The Lizard lifeboat was again launched to assist a lone yachtsman onboard the Yacht Apsu, 20 miles southeast of Lizard Point that had suffered damaged rigging after being hit by a large wave.

The vessel was returning to the Helford River from Spain and its engine then failed and again the yacht was left bobbing around. Falmouth Coastguard requested The Lizard lifeboat launch and assist the vessel. The yacht was towed to Falmouth Harbour. The lifeboat returned to station at just after midnight.

On Thursday evening at 4:50pm The Lizard lifeboat was launched to assist in a search for a person thought to have fallen over the cliff at Old Lizard Head. The Coastguard rescue teams from Mullion and Porthoustock and a rescue helicopter from 771 Squadron RNAS Culdrose were also involved in the search. It very soon became apparent that the call was a false alarm and all the rescue units were stood down with the lifeboat returning to station at 6:15pm.” – Falmouth Packet

The Lizard lifeboat alongside Yacht Apsu. Credit Andrew Putt.

Related:

 

RNLI | Goaty’s News