Rotuma/ Fiji/ South Pacific: Tropical Depression 12F (95P) 180600Z near 9.5S 175.7E, moving SSE ~06kt 1004hpa (RSMC Nadi) – Published 18 May 2019 1454Z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F (95P)

(Possible future TC Rita)

FIJI and ROTUMA BEWARE!

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE

IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE (RSMC Nadi 180845 UTC)

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH (JTWC 180600 UTC)

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 5 issued 0115 UTC Saturday 18 May 2019

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am May 18 tropical low 9.6S 174.9E 220
+6hr 6 am May 18 tropical low 9.8S 175.1E 250
+12hr 12 pm May 18 tropical low 9.9S 175.1E 280
+18hr 6 pm May 18 tropical low 10.3S 175.3E 305
+24hr 12 am May 19 tropical low 10.5S 175.5E 335
+36hr 12 pm May 19 tropical low 11.3S 175.8E 395
+48hr 12 am May 20 tropical low 11.7S 176.1E 455
+60hr 12 pm May 20 tropical low 12.6S 176.3E 540
+72hr 12 am May 21 tropical low 13.8S 176.6E 630

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 180845 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE 1004HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 175.7E
AT 180600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD12F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTH OF LLCC AND ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500 HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
TO ABOUT 50 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES FROM LLCC, YIELDS DT=2.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION
AND THAN WEAKENS IT. THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 12.1S 176.6E MOVING SSE AT 03KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 13.2S 177.4E MOVING SSE AT 03KT WITH
30KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 14.1S 178.1E MOVING SSE AT 03KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC 15.5S 178.6E SLOW MOVING SSE AT 03KT
WITH 30KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 181400 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 11:32pm on Saturday the 18th of May 2019
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ROTUMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 176.4E OR
ABOUT 300KM KILOMETERS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTUMA AT 9:00PM TONIGHT.
CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS
UPTO 55KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80KM/HR. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KM/HR AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE WEST OF ROTUMA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER ROTUMA.

FOR ROTUMA:
EXPECT STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SPEEDS UPTO 65 KM/HR WITH
GUSTS TO 90KM/HR. HIGH SEAS WITH DAMAGING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners
FOR ROTUMA WATERS
SOUTHWEST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS OF UPTO 4.0M EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ROTUMA ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2.30AM TOMORROW OR EARLIER.

JTWC Tropical Warnings

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZMAY2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171221MAY2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 174.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 175.7E, APPROXIMATELY 506
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170717Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING, WITH 95P SLOWLY TRACKING INTO A
REGION OF LOW-MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE GETTING STRONGER AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM
(28-30C) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK, WITH ALL PREDICTING SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION, BUT
VARY ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. THE GFS AND NAVGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMO
DISSENTING AND ONLY KEEPING A CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL PATCH OF
ELEVATED WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21
PGTW 171230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

Other

 

DocR poss Rita

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

South West Pacific Marine
UPDATED MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service May 180800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 180704 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 9.5S 175.7E AT 180600UTC. POSITION POOR. TD12F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 60 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 005. PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL May 190600 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 9.5S 175.7E AT 180600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 02S 160E 01S 170E 08S 179E SLOW MOVING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ. TROUGH T1 07S 160E 07S 170E TO TD12F 12S 179W 15S 170W 20S 160W 25S 150W. T1 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1 IN THE AREA WEST OF 162E AND EAST OF 174E. ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 EQT 175W 06S 174W 15S 168W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 03S 164W 08S 152W 09S 140W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND WEST OF 178W, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND WEST OF 140W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF EQ AND EAST OF 135W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 11:32pm on Saturday the 18th of May 2019
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ROTUMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 176.4E OR
ABOUT 300KM KILOMETERS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTUMA AT 9:00PM TONIGHT.
CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS
UPTO 55KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80KM/HR. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KM/HR AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE WEST OF ROTUMA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER ROTUMA.

FOR ROTUMA:
EXPECT STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SPEEDS UPTO 65 KM/HR WITH
GUSTS TO 90KM/HR. HIGH SEAS WITH DAMAGING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners
FOR ROTUMA WATERS
SOUTHWEST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS OF UPTO 4.0M EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ROTUMA ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2.30AM TOMORROW OR EARLIER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

Timor Leste (East Timor)/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone LILI 26S 10/1500Z position 9.3S 128.2E, moving NNW 03kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 May 2019 1530Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone LILI 26S

(Tropical Storm)

Timor Leste (East Timor), Indonesia beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET- JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Lili) Warning #06
Issued at 10/1500Z

sh2619-1

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 9.3S 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 9.1S 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 9.0S 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101248Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30
KNOTS) BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS
EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN UPPER-
AIR SOUNDINGS IN THE VICINITY, WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS
IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST
TIMOR NEAR TAU 24. TC 26S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z.//
NNNN

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA

TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND IMPACT MAP

Tropical Cyclone LILI

Issued Friday 10 May 2019 16:01 WIB


All times shown are in WIB.

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Area:
Extreme weather with the possibility of heavy rain (>=50mm/day) and/or strong winds (>=50 km/h) within 24 hours
Watch Area:
Extreme weather with the possibility of heavy rain (>=50mm/day) and/or strong winds (>=25 knots) within 48 hours
Past Location
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is BMG’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.

Tropical Cyclone Forecast:

Time (WIB) Maximum Wind Speed
(km/h)
Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
0hr 13:00 May 10 65 9.4S 128.6E
+6hr 19:00 May 10 65 9.5S 128.1E
+12hr 01:00 May 11 65 9.6S 127.5E
+18hr 07:00 May 11 55 9.6S 126.8E
+24hr 13:00 May 11 55 9.5S 126.0E
+36hr 01:00 May 12 45 9.3S 124.4E
+48hr 13:00 May 12 35 8.9S 122.6E
+60hr 01:00 May 13 30 8.5S 120.4E
+72hr 13:00 May 13 20 8.3S 118.1E

The next Impact Map will be issued by Friday 10 May 2019 20:00 WIB.

 

IDJ21030
METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS COUNCIL
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta

INFORMATION TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN

Issued by TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA
At: 15:57 WIB 10/05/2019

LILI Tropical Cyclone

Conditions on 10/05/2019 at 13:00 WIB:
Position: 9.4LS, 128.6BT (about 550 km east of Kupang)
Direction of movement: west, speed 5 knots (10 km / h) moves towards the territory of Indonesia
Speed
Maximum Wind: 35 knots (65 km / h)

24 hour prediction, 11/05/2019 at 13:00 WIB:
Position: 9.5LS, 126.0BT (about 265 km east of Kupang)
Motion Direction: west, speed of 6 knots (12 km / h) moves towards the territory of Indonesia
Speed
Maximum Wind: 30 knots (55 km / h)

48 hour prediction, dated 12/05/2019 at 13:00 WIB:
Position: 8.9LS, 122.6BT
Motion Direction: west, speed 7 knots (14 km / h) moves towards the territory of Indonesia
Speed
Maximum Wind: 17 knots (35 km / h)

72 hour prediction, 13/05/2019 at 13:00 WIB:
Position: 8.3LS, 118.1BT
Motion Direction: west, speed 9 knots (16 km / h) moves towards the Indonesian territory
Speed
Maximum Wind: 10 knots (20 km / h)

IMPACT ON WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
LILI Tropical Cyclone has an impact on the weather in Indonesia in the form of:
– Rain with moderate intensity is likely to occur in Maluku and Timor Leste.
– Winds with speeds above 25 knots or 48 km / h are likely to occur in southwest Maluku and Timor Leste.
– Waves with a height of 2.50 – 4.0 m are likely to occur in the Bali Strait – Lombok Strait – Alas Strait in the south, waters south of P. Sumba – P.Sawu, Sawu Sea, South Indian Ocean East Java to NTT, Arafuru Sea in the middle.
– Waves with a height of 4.0 – 6.0 m are likely to occur in the southern waters of Kupang – P.Rote, Timor Sea, South waters of Kep.Sermata – Letti, West Arafuru Sea.

IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 15:57 WIB 10/05/2019

Siklon Tropis LILI

Kondisi tanggal 10/05/2019 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 9.4LS, 128.6BT (sekitar 550 km sebelah timur Kupang)
Arah Gerak : barat , kecepatan 5 knots (10 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 35 knots (65 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 11/05/2019 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 9.5LS, 126.0BT (sekitar 265 km sebelah timur timur laut Kupang)
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 6 knots (12 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 12/05/2019 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 8.9LS, 122.6BT
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 7 knots (14 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 17 knots (35 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 13/05/2019 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 8.3LS, 118.1BT
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 9 knots (16 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 10 knots (20 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon Tropis LILI memberikan dampak terhadap cuaca di Indonesia berupa:
– Hujan dengan intensitas sedang – lebat berpeluang terjadi di wilayah Maluku dan Timor Leste.
– Angin dengan kecepatan diatas 25 knot atau 48 km/jam berpeluang terjadi di Maluku bagian barat daya dan Timor Leste.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 2.50 – 4.0 m berpeluang terjadi di Selat Bali – Selat Lombok – Selat Alas bagian selatan, Perairan selatan P.Sumba – P.Sawu, Laut Sawu, Samudra Hindia Selatan Jawa Timur hingga NTT, Laut Arafuru bagian tengah.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 4.0 – 6.0 m berpeluang terjadi di Perairan selatan Kupang – P.Rote, Laut Timor, Perairan selatan Kep.Sermata – Letti, Laut Arafuru bagian barat.

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 10 May, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm LILI is currently located near 9.3 S 128.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). LILI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Indonesia
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Patti (8.2 S, 128.0 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

R2R1.jpg

R3R4

 

(Images: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

EGC:2:2:24:09S129E900:11:00
THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING FOR AREA 0 – 10 S, 90 – 141 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 01:45 UTC 10 May 2019

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone LILI 999 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 9.4 S 128.6 E moving west southwest at 4 knots.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 40 knots expected to decrease to 30 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 10 May: Within 70 nautical miles of 9.4 S 128.1 E
Central pressure 1004 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 11 May: Within 100 nautical miles of 9.1 S 127.2 E
Central pressure 1008 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 07:00 UTC 10 May 2019.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

India/ Bangladesh/ Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone (ESCS) FANI 01B 02/1500Z position near 18.0N 84.9E, moving N 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 May 2019 1748Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FANI 01B

(Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)

FANI is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA COAST BETWEEN GOPALPUR (43049)AND CHANDBALI(42973), SOUTH OF PURI (43053) DURING 0300-0600 UTC TOMORROW THE 3RD MAY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 170-180 KMPH GUSTING TO 200 KMPH (RSMC New Delhi)

  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 48 FEET- JTWC

See comments at bottom of page for updates

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Fani) Warning #23
Issued at 02/1500Z

io0119

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021200Z — NEAR 17.6N 84.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 84.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 19.2N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 21.0N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 22.8N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 24.7N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 26.5N 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM EAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST
SIX HOURS. THERE IS NOW A 16 NM WIDE ROUND, SYMMETRICAL EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION, WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. BASED ON
THE EYE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY AN EYE FEATURE IN A
021137Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135
KTS IS BETWEEN DVORAK VALUES OF T6.5-7.0 (127-140 KTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW, REFLECTING THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM. INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
TC 01B IS TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS. AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE STR AXIS, THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNTIL DISSIPATING BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK. BASED
ON THE TIGHT CLUSTER IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHITROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 43

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 43 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALIDFOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUEDAT 1500UTC OF 02.05.2019

BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 02.05.2019.

SUB: EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM „FANI‟(PRONOUNCED AS ‘FONI’) OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 15KMPH IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 02NDMAY, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.5°N AND LONGITUDE 84.8°E, ABOUT 275KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PURI (43053) (ODISHA), 160 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43150)(ANDHRA PRADESH) AND 570KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA(42901)(WEST BENGAL). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA COAST BETWEEN GOPALPUR (43049)AND CHANDBALI(42973), SOUTH OFPURI (43053) DURING0300-0600 UTC TOMORROW THE 3RDMAYWITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 170-180 KMPH GUSTING TO 200 KMPH.LANDFALL PROCESS IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TILL 0900UTCOFTOMORROW THE 3RDMAY. AFTER THE LANDFALL THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND EMERGE INTO GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF 90-100 KMPH GUSTING TO 115 KMPH BY EARLY MORNING OF 4TH. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND EMERGE INTO BANGLADESH ON 4THMAYEVENING AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED 60-70 KMPH GUSTING TO 80 KMPH. THE CYCLONE IS BEING TRACKED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS VISHAKHAPATNAM & MACHILIPATNAM. FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

Date/Time(UTC)Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)Category of cyclonicDisturbance

02.05.19/120017.5/84.8200-210gusting to 230Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

02.05.19/180018.3/85.0190-200 gusting to 220Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/000019.0/85.3180-190 gusting to 210Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/060019.9/85.7170-180 gusting to 200Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/120020.6/86.1150-160 gusting to 175VerySevere Cyclonic Storm

04.05.19/000022.1/87.3100-110 gusting to 125Severe Cyclonic Storm

04.05.19/120023.8/88.760-70 gusting to 80Cyclonic Storm

05.05.19/000025.5/90.140-50 gusting to 60Depression

05.05.19/120027.1/91.520-30 gusting to 40Well Marked Low

STORM SURGE GUIDANCE:

STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.5 METER HEIGHT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS VERY LIKELY TO INUNDATE LOW LYING AREAS OF GANJAM, KHURDA, PURI & JAGATSINGHPUR DISTRICTS OF ODISHA STATE AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

REMARKS:

AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1200 UTC OF 02ND MAY, 2019 THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRALBAY OF BENGAL IS C.I6.0.EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 KMSIS VISIBLEIN SATELLITE IMAGERY.DT IS 6.0.PT AND MET ALSO AGREE WITH THIS. THEASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSECONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 16.2°N TO 19.4°N TO THEWEST OF LONG.86.5°E. MINIMUM CLOUDTOP TEMPERATUREIS MINUS 93°C.

DWR MACHILIPATNAM INDICTAE CIRCULAR EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF 24KM.DWR VISAKHAPATNAM ALSO REPORTS CIRCULAR EYE, BUTWITH A DIAMETER OF 30KM.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105KNOTS GUSTING TO 115KNOTS.THESEA CONDITION IS PHENEOMENALAROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937HPA.

AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY,A BUOY (23093) LOCATED NEAR LAT. 16.3°N AND LONG 88.0°E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001.9HPAAND MEAN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION 190° AND WIND SPEED 17KNOTS.ANOTHER BUOY (23092) LOCATED NEAR LAT. 17.4°N AND LONG 89.1°E REPORTED MEANSEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1002.8HPAAND MEAN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION 210° AND WIND SPEED 18KNOTS.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 5AFTER 2 DAYSWITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1. HENCE, MJO ISFAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION &MAINTAINENCE OFINTENSITYOF THE SYSTEM OVER BAY OF BENGAL.THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 30-31 ̊COVER WESTCENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL.

IT DECREASE TO 29 ̊C OFF ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COASTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 100-120 KJ/CM2OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER REGIONS OF HIGH HEAT POTENTIAL FOR NEXT 24HOURS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL REDUCES TO LESS THAN 60 KJ/CM2OFF ODISHA COASTS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOURIMAGERIES INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SYSTEM CENTRE.HOWEVER, DRYAIR INCURSION IS SEEN TO BE TAKING PLACE IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM FROM SOUTH PENINSULAR INDIA.

THE LOWER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITYIS300X10-6SEC-1TO THE SOUTHWEST OFTHESYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCEIS ABOUT 40X10-5SEC-1 TOTHE NORTHEASTOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPERLEVEL DIVERGENCEISABOUT 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE(05-10KNOTS) TO THE SOUTHOFTHE SYSTEMCENTRE ANDIT DECREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THESEFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OFEXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TILL 0600 UTC OF 03RDMAYAND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTERAS THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER WATERS AND INTERACT WITH LAND.

THE WESTERLY TROUGH IN THE DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND LYING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE ANDTHEANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL INTHE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELSARESTEERINGTHE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS.DUE TO COMBINED IMPACT OF THESE TWO STEERING FORCES THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS INCREASINGGRADUALLY.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, IMD GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS), AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE.

(NEETHA K GOPAL)(SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI)

Source: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN, SL NO: 32 (THIRTY TWO), DATE: 02.05.2019

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” (PRONUNCIATION: FONI) OVER WESTCENTRAL
BAY AND ADJOINING AREA MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY (LAT. 17.9°N, LONG. 84.9°E) AND WAS
CENTRED AT 09 PM TODAY (02 MAY 2019) ABOUT 905 KM SOUTHWEST OF CHATTOGRAM PORT, 875 KM
SOUTHWEST OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 725 KM SOUTHWEST OF MONGLA PORT AND 750 KM SOUTHWEST
OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION, CROSS ODISHA COAST OF INDIA BY AFTERNOON OF 03 MAY 2019 AND THEN MOVED
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVER ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTAL AREA, REACH KHULNA
AND ADJOINING SOUTHWESTERN PART OF BANGLDESH BY EVENING OF 03 MAY 2019. KHULNA AND
ADJOINING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGION OF BANGLADESH MAY EXPERIENCE THE PERIPHERAL
EFFECT OF THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” BY THE MORNING OF 03 MAY 2019.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 74 KMS OF THE STORM CENTRE IS ABOUT 180 KPH
RISING TO 200 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER
SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN (R) SEVEN. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI,
BARISHAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE
ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER SEVEN (R) SEVEN.
MARITIME PORT OF CHATTOGRAM HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL
NUBMER SIX (R) SIX. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI,
CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL
NUMBER SIX (R) SIX.
MARITIME PORT OF COX’S BAZAR HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED LOCAL WARNING
SIGNAL NUBMER FOUR (R) FOUR.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” AND THE NEW MOON
PHASE, THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI,
LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISHAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI,
BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE
INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR,
BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISHAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA,
SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP
TO 90-110 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THE STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED
TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

Phone: 9135742, 9141437
FAX : 9119230, 58152019
Web Site: http://www.bmd.gov.bd
Email: info@bmd.gov.bd

Govt. of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
StormWarningCenter
Agargaon, Dhaka-1207

(Kh. Hafizur Rahman)
Meteorologist
For Director
02, 2130 BST

 

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

(2.5.2019)     According to the observations at (22:30)hrs M.S.T today, the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” over the Westcentral Bay has moved North-Northeastwards. It is centered at about (150)miles South-Southwest of Puri, (90)miles East- Southeast of Vishakhapatnam and (290)miles South-Southwest of Digha(India). It is forecast to move North-Northeastwards. Weather is cloudy over the West central Bay and partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea and elsewhere in the Bay of Bengal.

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm No.37, 2019

                                                                                                                                               Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm No.37, 2019

          2nd  May, 2019 23:00 MST Today

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

According to the observations at (22:30)hrs M.S.T today, the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” over the Westcentral Bay has moved North-Northeastwards. It is centered at about (150)miles South-Southwest of Puri, (90)miles East- Southeast of Vishakhapatnam and (290)miles South-Southwest of Digha(India). It is forecast to move North-Northeastwards.

It is not moving towards Myanmar coasts, the present stage of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm is coded yellow stage.

Position of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, center pressure and wind

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” is located at Latitude (17.5) degree North and Longitude (84.8) degree East, centre pressure of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm is (937)hPa and maximum wind speed near the center is (120)miles per hour at (22:30) hrs MST today.

During next (24)hrs forecast

It is forecast to cross ODISHA Coast between Gopalpur and Chandbali, near Puri during next (24)hours and weaken gradually into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI”. It is likely to continue to move North-Northeastwards.

General caution

Under the influence of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI”, rain or thundershowers will be fairly widespread in Upper Sagaing, Yangon and Thanintharyi Regions, Kachin, Chin, Kayin and Mon States, isolated to scattered in Naypyitaw, Lower Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwady Regions, Shan, Rakhine and Kayah States with isolated heavy falls in some areas within next (2.5.2019) to (4.5.2019) commencing today morning.

Occasional squalls with rough seas will be experienced off and along Myanmar Coasts. Surface wind speed in squalls may reach (40-45)m.p.h. Wave height will be about (10-13) feet off and along Myanmar Coasts.

Under the influence of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI”, people should be awared domastic flight, trawlers, vessels and ships off and along Myanmar Coasts.

Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (Myanmar)
Public weather call: 067-411252/01-667766


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 2 May, 2019 12:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm FANI is currently located near 17.6 N 84.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 135 kts (155 mph). FANI is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FANI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Puri (19.9 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bangladesh
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Baleshwar (21.5 N, 87.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Kolkata (22.5 N, 88.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Kharagpur (22.4 N, 87.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Jamshedpur (22.8 N, 86.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Jessore (23.2 N, 89.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DocR F2

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 021315

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 02 MAY 2019.

PART:-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM FANI (PRONOUNCED AS FONI) OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED FURTHER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH
ASPEED OF ABOUT 9 KNOTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC
OF 02ND MAY, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.1
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.8 DEG E, ABOUT 320 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PURI
(43053) (ODISHA), 170 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43150)
(ANDHRA PRADESH) AND 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901) (WEST
BENGAL).
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
125 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENEOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 HPA (.)
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA
COAST BETWEEN GOPALPUR (43049) AND CHANDBALI (42973), AROUND PURI
(43053) DURING 0300-0600 UTC TOMORROW THE 3RD MAY WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 90-95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. LANDFALL
PROCESS IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TILL 0900 UTC OF TOMORROW THE 3RD
MAY.
F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/05/02 AT 21 UTC 18.6 N / 85.3 E MAX WIND 100 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/05/03 AT 09 UTC 20.2 N/ 86.0 E (OVERLAND)
MAX WIND SPEED 95 KTS EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART:-II:

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO E OF 76 DEG E (.)
3)REST AREA: W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 8 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY1)S OF 8 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 7 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 7 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N:W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/S-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-10.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 95 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 5.0-8.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 80/85 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Skipper rescued off Salcombe ‘had done all the right things’ – Published 01 May 2019 1528Z )GMT/UTC)

A skipper who was rescued after his boat caught on fire has been praised by HM Coastguard for having all the right equipment and doing all the right things.

Salcombe Lifeboat

Salcombe Lifeboat (Image: Salcombe RNLI)

Joe Dudley ran into difficulty when his fishing vessel Peace N Plenty had a fire on board six miles off Salcombe just before 6.30pm on 30 April. He called HM Coastguard reporting the problem and said he had abandoned to a life raft with a handheld VHF radio and EPIRB (emergency position-indicating radio beacon).

Both RNLI lifeboats from Salcombe were tasked and the skipper brought back to shore. Navigational warnings were issued for the abandoned vessel but the fire has now burned out and the boat is being towed back to harbour at Brixham. It will be inspected by a Maritime & Coastguard Agency surveyor.

Joe Dudley has recently completed a sea survival course. He said: ‘It’s incredible when you realise the things that you don’t think you’ve absorbed have actually gone in and you do all the safety things you need to.

‘I’d say to anyone thinking about doing a sea survival course to do it and to listen seriously because it could save your life.’

Tago Mcleod, from HM Coastguard based at Falmouth said: ‘This was a man who did everything right from the moment he realised he had a problem. He had a fully registered EPIRB which he activated right away, he was wearing a lifejacket and made ready his lifeboat. The EPIRB helped us establish his position to within a few metres. At the same time he called a family member who then was able to liaise with us.

‘We are always on hand in an emergency to rescue people who have called us on their VHF radio or calling 999 and asking for the coastguard, but this was someone who had understood the need to take responsibility for his own safety and did everything right to make the job of finding him easier.’

Follow the official page of Salcombe RNLI lifeboat station on Twitter:

For UK GALE WARNINGS & Shipping Forecast and the UK INSHORE GALE or Strong Wind Warnings & forecast to 12 miles offshore  follow GOATY’S NEWS (UK) 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 on Twitter (regular automatic tweets 24/7)

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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