Tropical Cyclone Roanu (01B)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET (JTWC)
5 Day Forecast (Image: @wunderground)
Image: @wunderground Satellite
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE
–
TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN
FROM:
RSMC
–
TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO:
STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WAR
NING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
ST
ORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT
(THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC
–
TROPI
CAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘ROANU’ ADVISORY NO.
TWELVE
ISSUED AT
18
00 UTC OF
20
TH
MAY 2016
BASED ON
1
5
00 UTC CHARTS OF
20
TH
MAY 2016.
THE
CYCLONIC STORM
‘
ROANU
’
OVER
WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING NORTHWEST
BAY OF
BENGAL
MOVED EAST
–
NORTHEASTWARDS
A
T A SPEED OF 25 KMPH DURING PAST THREE
HOURS AND
LAY CENTRED AT
1500 UTC
OF
20
TH
MAY, 2016
OVER NORTHWEST
BAY OF
BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE
20.0
º N AND LONGITUDE
87.0
ºE
,
65 KM EAST OF PARADIP
(ODISHA),SOUTHEAST AND 560 KM WEST
–
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG (BANGLADESH
)
.
THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE
EAST
–
N
ORTH
EAST
WARDS
SKIRTING ODISHA
–
WEST BENGAL
COAST
AND
CROSS SOUTH BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN KHEPUPARA AND COX’S BAZAR
,
CLOSE TO CHITTAGONG IN THE EVENING OF
21
ST
MAY, A
S
A
CYCLONIC STORM
.
THE CON
V
ECTION SHOWS BAND PATTER
N. IT ALSO EXHIBITS LARGE SCALE DIURNAL
VARIATION DURING PAST TWO DAY
S
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUDS AND THE CURVED BANDS INTENSITY AND SIZE.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS T
2.
5
.
ASSOCIATED
BRO
KEN LOW
AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH
EMBEDDED INTENS
E TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY
OVER
NORTH COASTAL ODISHA,
NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING
NORTHEAST
BAY
BETWEEN
NORTH OF
LATITUDE
1
5
.
5
0
NORTH
AND
WEST OF
LONGITUDE
9
1
.0
0
E
.
THE
LOWEST CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS A
BOUT
–
9
3
0
C.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT
40
KNOTS GUSTING TO
50
KNOTS AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS
HIGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
99
2
HPA.
FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/time(
UTC
)
Position
(lat.
°N/ long. °
E)
Maximum sustained
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category of cyclonic
Disturbance
20
–
05
–
2016/
1500
20.0
/
87.0
70
–
80
gusting to
90
Cyclonic Storm
20
–
05
–
2016/
1800
20.5
/8
8.1
80
–
90
gusting to
100
Cyclonic Storm
2
1
–
05
–
2016/
0000
21.3
/8
9.6
80
–
90
gusting to
100
Cyclonic Storm
2
1
–
05
–
2016/
0600
22.1
/
91.0
80
–
90
gusting to
100
Cyclonic Storm
21
–
05
–
2016/
1200
2
2.9
/9
2.6
6
0
–
70
gusting to
8
0
Cyclonic Storm
2
2
–
05
–
2016/
0000
2
4.2
/
9
4.7
40
–
50
gusting to
60
Depression
Phone
:
(91) 11
–
24652484 FAX: (91) 11
–
24623220
,
(91) 1
1
–
246
43128,
e
–
mail:cwdhq2008@gmail.com
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE FOR BANGLADESH COAST.
STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.0 TO
2
METRE IS VERY LIKELY NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTRE AT THE
TIME OF LANDFALL
.
REMARKS:
THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 3
0
–
31
̊C, OCEAN THERMAL ENERG
Y
IS ABOUT
75
–
100
KJ/CM
2
, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY DURING PAST SIX HOURS
AND IS ABOUT 2
0
X
10
–
5
SECOND
–
1
,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS
ALSO DECREASED AND IS
ABOUT
1
0
X10
–
5
SECOND
–
1
, THE LOW LEVE
L RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT
200
X10
–
6
SECOND
–
1
,
AROUND SYSTEM CENTER.
VERT
I
CAL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE
LOW
(
5
–
1
0
KNOTS)
AND IS FAVOURABLE
.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE LIES ALONG
LATITUDE
1
6.0
0
̊N.
THOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SYSTEM TO THE COAST PROVIDES LAND SURFACE INTERECTION OPPOSING THE
INTENSIFICATION FURTHER
AS THE CYCLONIC S
TORM
MOVES NORTH EASTWARDS IT WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWER OCE
N THERMAL ENERGY AND MORE MID
–
LATITUDE INFLUENCE
UNFAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THUS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE CYCLONIC
STORM INTENSITY IN THIS MARGINALLY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID
LATITUD
E
WESTERLIES
IN MID & UP
P
ER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS
THE DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND IS
FAVOURING THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SPEED OF 25
–
30
KMPH DURING PAST 12 HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TRACK
FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE N
EXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT
21
0
0
UTC OF
20
MAY
2016
.
(
RANJEET SINGH
)
SCIENTIST
‘
F
’ ’
N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 May, 2016 18:00 GMT
Tropical Storm ROANU is currently located near 19.8 N 87.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). ROANU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Bangladesh
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Myanmar
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Cox’s Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 65% currently
Imphal (24.8 N, 93.9 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
JTWC Tropical Warnings
Current Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean* Tropical Systems
Tropical Cyclone 01B (Roanu) Warning #11
Issued at 20/2100Z
WTIO31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z — NEAR 19.8N 87.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 045 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 87.6E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 21.6N 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 23.7N 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 25.7N 96.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 88.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201549Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS), A RECENT SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS,
AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATING SLIGHTLY WEAKER CORE
WINDS. TC 01B CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW AND
BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ALOFT. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH FOLLOWING A
SLIGHT POLEWARD JOG IN THE BEST TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND A
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW UNDER THE STR, WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-20
KNOTS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 12, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS SHEAR INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND LAND INTERACTION. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN APPROXIMATELY 12-18 HRS FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN
* Includes Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
MARITIME/SHIPPING
WTIN01 DEMS 201800
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 20 MAY 2016
——————————————————–
PART I:-STORM WARNING
PART II
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘ROANU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NW BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED
EASTNORTHEASTWARDS AND LIES CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY 20TH MAY
,2016
OVER NW BAY OF BANGAL NEAR LAT.19.7 DEG N AND LONG. 86.5 DEG E,
ABOUT 70 KM SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF PARADIP (ODISHA),70 KMS SE OF PURI AND
630 KMS WSW OF
CHITTAGONG (BANGLADESH)(.)THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE NE-WARDS
SKIRTING ODISHA WEST BANGAL
COST AND CROSS SOUTH BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN CHEPUPARA AND COX’S
BAZAR , CLOSE TO
CHITTAGONG IN THE EVENING OF 21ST MAY 2016 AS A CYCLONIC STORM (.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)
—————————– ——————-
A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:1)N-OF 05 DEG N :WNW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)S-OF 05 DEG N :-WNW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/WSW-LY TO THE E OF
75 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.) REST AREA 8-6 NM
(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:1)N-OF 05 DEG N :WNW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)S-OF 05 DEG N :-WNW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/WSW-LY TO THE E OF
75 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.) REST AREA 8-6 NM
(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M (.)
A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:WSW/W-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 2-3 M(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:WSW/W-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 2-3 M(.)
A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIRLYWIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST
AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)0.5-1 M(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIRLYWIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST
AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)0.5-1 M(.)
BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 18 DEG N:S/SE-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N:SSW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2) 4-5 M(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 18 DEG N:S/SE-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N:SSW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2) 4-5 M(.)
—————————————————-
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++=
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