Yap/ Palau/ Micronesia/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm JELAWAT (1803, 03W) 260900Z 8.2N 136.4E, moving WNW 10 kt 998hPa (JMA) – Updated 26 Mar 2018 1057z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JELAWAT (1803, 03W)

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Kayangel in the
Republic of Palau.

logo

1803-001

TS 1803 (Jelawat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 26 March 2018

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 26 March>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N8°10′ (8.2°)
E136°25′ (136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 170 km (90 NM)
S 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 26 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°25′ (9.4°)
E135°10′ (135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 27 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°40′ (10.7°)
E134°10′ (134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 28 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°00′ (14.0°)
E134°05′ (134.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 29 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°50′ (16.8°)
E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 03W (Jelawat) Warning #07
Issued at 26/0900Z

 

 

wp0318

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 8.0N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N 136.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 9.5N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 10.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 12.0N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 13.8N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 16.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 19.1N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 21.2N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 8.4N 136.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 260923
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (03W) Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP032018
800 PM ChST Mon Mar 26 2018

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT WEST OF NGULU MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST…

Changes with this advisory
————————–
None.

Watches and warnings
——————–
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Kayangel in the
Republic of Palau.

Summary of 700 PM CHST…0900 UTC…Information
———————————————–
Location…8.4N 136.1E

About 95 miles west of Ngulu
About 100 miles east-northeast of Kayangel
About 140 miles east-northeast of Koror
About 155 miles west-southwest of Yap
About 680 miles west-southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds…35 mph
Present movement…west-northwest…295 degrees at 14 mph

Discussion and outlook
———————-
At 700 PM CHST…0900 UTC…the center of Tropical Depression
Jelawat was located near Latitude 8.4 North and Longitude 136.1 East.
Jelawat is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. It is expected to turn to
the northwest overnight and then north on Tuesday while slowing down
in forward speed slightly.

Tropical Depression Jelawat remains somewhat disorganized, thus
maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Jelawat is still expected
to intensify gradually the next couple of days, possibly becoming a
tropical storm tonight or Tuesday.

Next advisory
————-
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather Service
at 1100 PM followed by the next scheduled advisory at 200 AM Tuesday
morning.

$$

Nierenberg

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2018 0:00 GMT

Tropical Depression JELAWAT is currently located near 7.5 N 137.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). JELAWAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Koror (7.3 N, 134.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Other

 

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 260600

WTJP21 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1803 JELAWAT (1803) 998 HPA
AT 08.0N 136.7E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 09.3N 135.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 10.6N 134.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 14.0N 134.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 16.8N 134.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Australia (QLD): Severe Tropical Cyclone NORA 24/1200Z near 14.4S 141.5E, moving SSE 11kt (TCWC Darwin) – Updated 24 Mar 2018 1400z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone NORA (16P)

Australian Intensity Category 3

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

The destructive core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is beginning to impact the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

Warning zone: Karumba to Weipa

Watch zone: NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora

Issued at 8:33 pm AEST Saturday 24 March 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 23.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

The destructive core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is beginning to impact the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Karumba to Weipa.

Watch zone: NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora at 7:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South, 141.2 degrees East , 25 kilometres west of Cape Keerweer and 185 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama .
Movement: southeast at 21 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora has started weaken as it nears land on the western side of the Cape York Peninsula, although it remains a Category 3 system. The eye wall of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is currently impacting the coast near Cape Keerweer. the system has begun to track more towards the south southeast in the last few hours, moving more parallel to the coast. A coastal crossing between Cape Keerweer and Gilbert River Mouth is predicted overnight tonight or during Sunday.

From later Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone is expected to become slow moving over land around the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria.

There is a slight risk that the cyclone takes a more southerly track than depicted and tracks parallel to the coast, remaining over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria into early next week. In this scenario, the cyclone is still expected to weaken, although more slowly than if it crosses the Cape York Peninsula coast this weekend.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Weipa and Kowanyama this evening. Gales may extend south between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth, including adjacent inland parts later tonight, and between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba during Sunday morning. Gales may extend further south to between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island later on Sunday or Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Weipa and Kowanyama this evening. Destructive winds may extend south between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth later Saturday night or early Sunday. Destructive winds may also extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba during Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 190 kilometres per hour may develop between Aurukun and Kowanyama, this evening or overnight, as the core of the cyclone nears the coast. If the cyclone tracks more southerly and remains over water on Sunday, maintaining its intensity, very destructive winds may extend south between Kowanyama and Karumba during Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula and extending to the Gulf Country of Queensland during Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

Coastal residents between Weipa and Gilbert River Mouth are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Recommended Action:

People between Weipa and the Gilbert River Mouth should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be secured using available daylight hours.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between the Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 7 pm March 24 3 13.9S 141.2E 20
+6hr 1 am March 25 3 14.7S 141.6E 40
+12hr 7 am March 25 2 15.4S 141.7E 65
+18hr 1 pm March 25 2 15.9S 141.8E 85
+24hr 7 pm March 25 2 16.3S 141.8E 110
+36hr 7 am March 26 1 16.7S 142.0E 145
+48hr 7 pm March 26 tropical low 16.6S 142.4E 180
+60hr 7 am March 27 tropical low 16.6S 142.4E 220
+72hr 7 pm March 27 tropical low 16.8S 141.8E 255

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:30 pm AEST Saturday

 

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Weipa and the Gilbert River Mouth are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 11:25 pm AEST [10:55 pm ACST] on Saturday 24 March 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is currently crossing the western coast of Cape York Peninsula north of Pormpuraaw.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Karumba to Aurukun.

Watch Zone
NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island.

Cancelled Zone
Aurukun to Weipa.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora at 10:00 pm AEST [9:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 14.4 degrees South 141.5 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres north northwest of Pormpuraaw and 125 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama.

Movement: south southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora, Category 3, is tracking south southeastwards, slowly crossing the coast north of Pormpuraaw. As the system is moving somewhat parallel to the coast, the period of crossing will be extended, and the cyclone is only expected to weaken slowly and may still be a Category 2 or Category 3 system as it approaches Kowanyama on sunday morning.

 

From later Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone is expected to continue gradually weakening as it becomes slow moving over land near the southwestern base of Cape York Peninsula.

 

The system may move back over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria late Monday or on Tuesday, where it may reintensify briefly to a Category 1 cyclone.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Aurukun and Gilbert River Mouth , including adjacent inland parts, tonight. Gales may extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba, including adjacent inland parts, during Sunday. Gales may extend further south to between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, on Monday, depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Aurukun and Gilbert River Mouth tonight or during Sunday morning. Destructive winds may also extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba later on Sunday, depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens.

 

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 190 kilometres per hour may develop between Cape Keerweer and Kowanyama tonight, as the core of the cyclone moves along the coast.

 

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula and extending to the Gulf Country of Queensland during Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

 

Coastal residents between Weipa and Gilbert River Mouth are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Recommended Action:
People between Aurukun and the Gilbert River Mouth should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be secured using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

 

 

People between the Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

 

 

People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:30 am AEST Sunday 25 March [2:00 am ACST Sunday 25 March].

This advice is available on telephone QLD-1300 659 212 and NT-1300 659 211

 

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Nora) Warning #09
Issued at 24/0900Z

sh16181

16p_240600sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240600Z — NEAR 13.3S 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 140.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 14.9S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z — 16.0S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 16.4S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 16.8S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 17.2S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 17.7S 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 141.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM NORTHWEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP AND
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 12-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 240521Z
GPM 37GHZ PASS WHICH IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE IN THE MSI WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY TILTED SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF 16P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-KNOT
NORTHERLY VWS BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE GULF ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. TC NORA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD
AFTER TAU 12 ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA AS THE NER
BUILDS. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
WILL BUILD AND COMPETE FOR STEERING, CAUSING TC 16P TO BECOME QS UP
TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE NER WILL RECEDE AND THE STR WILL DOMINATE
AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
TERRITORY. THE INITIAL LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 16P,
THEN AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CAUSE A MORE RAPID
DECAY. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND BY TAU
96 WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE
IN UNISON WITH THE TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, HOWEVER, EGRR AND AFUM OFFER
A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE CORAL SEA AFTER
TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE EGRR/AFUM SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
A QS MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z, AND 251500.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone NORA is currently located near 13.3 S 140.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). NORA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NORA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Edward River (15.0 S, 141.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Weipa (12.6 S, 142.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Coen (13.9 S, 143.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Bamaga (10.9 S, 142.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Normanton (17.8 S, 141.0 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

Other

sp201816_5day3

(Above image: @wunderground)

doc nora 24

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

0:2:2:24:14S142E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1329UTC 24 MARCH 2018

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora was centred within 10 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal four south (14.4S)
longitude one hundred and forty one decimal five east (141.5E)
Recent movement : south southeast at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 65 knots
Central pressure: 976 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre easing to 50 knots by 1200 UTC 25
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough to high seas and
moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 25 March: Within 35 nautical miles of 15.8 south 141.8 east
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 25 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.5 south 142.0 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 24 March 2018.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

METAREA X (link)

================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone MARCUS (15S) 221500Z position nr 18.1S 106.2E, moving SSW 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 22 Mar 2018 1435z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone MARCUS

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken well away from the WA mainland. It should continue to weaken as it moves further south – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Marcus) Warning #28
Issued at 22/1500Z

sh15184

15s_220600sair

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221200Z — NEAR 17.6S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 106.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 19.8S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 22.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 24.9S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 26.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 30.4S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18 NM EYE WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 221139Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC 15S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DECENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS
(28C). TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS TC 15S WEAKENS DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus

Issued at 8:58 pm AWST Thursday 22 March 2018. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken well away from the WA mainland. It should continue to weaken as it moves further south.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 215 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 295 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 17.6 degrees South, 106.2 degrees East , 960 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and 1120 kilometres northwest of Carnarvon .
Movement: south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken as it continues to move towards the south southwest, well away from the WA mainland. During Friday Marcus will move more southward as it continues weakening. Marcus is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday, well off the west coast of WA.

Hazards:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus is well away from the WA mainland and is not expected to directly affect WA communities.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 22 5 17.6S 106.2E 30
+6hr 2 am March 23 4 18.7S 105.8E 50
+12hr 8 am March 23 4 19.8S 105.7E 70
+18hr 2 pm March 23 3 21.1S 105.7E 95
+24hr 8 pm March 23 3 22.4S 105.9E 120
+36hr 8 am March 24 2 24.8S 106.7E 155
+48hr 8 pm March 24 1 26.4S 107.2E 190
+60hr 8 am March 25 1 27.7S 107.5E 225
+72hr 8 pm March 25 tropical low 29.4S 108.7E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Friday

 

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

 

 

Other

si201815_5day M 22 WUND

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:18S106E999:11:00
PANPAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1247UTC 22 MARCH 2018

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude seventeen decimal six south (17.6S)
longitude one hundred and six decimal two east (106.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 115 knots
Central pressure: 928 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 115 knots near the centre easing to 75 knots by 1200 UTC 23
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre, contracting to within
30 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 22 March with very high to phenomenal
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 70 nautical miles of centre, contracting to within
50 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 22 March with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in NW quadrant, with rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 19.8 south 105.7 east
Central pressure 947 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 22.4 south 105.9 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 22 March 2018.

WEATHER PERTH
================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone ELIAKIM (14S) 182100Z position nr 21.7S 49.6E, moving S 11kt (JTWC) – Updated 18 Mar 2018 2105z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone ELIAKIM (7,14S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Eliakim) Warning #16
Issued at 18/2100Z

sh14181

14s_181800sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181800Z — NEAR 21.2S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 49.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 23.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 25.5S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 27.9S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 30.6S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 35.1S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM WEST
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PULSATING BANDING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES
AND A LOW REFLECTION CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN AN 181555Z 89
GHZ SSMIS, ALSO SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, ABOVE AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), AND BELOW AN 181556Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET, AND ANOTHER
POINT SOURCE APPROXIMATELY 500 NM TO THE NORTHWEST THAT APPEARS TO
BE CREATING SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY EXPLAINING THE
LACK OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE
NEAR 27 CELSIUS. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS GUIDED BY THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU
24 AS IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE WATERS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
ENCROACHING NORTHWEST POINT SOURCE. BEYOND TAU 24, SSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE WITH A STEEP GRADIENT POLEWARD OF 30 DEGREES SOUTH.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND TC 14S WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM BY TAU 72 AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHT GROUPING OF AVAILABLE
SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

 

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

WTIO31 FMEE 181831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LA REUNION
CYCLONIC FORECASTING AND PRECISION BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 19/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC ON 18/03/2018:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM POINT 21.2 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DEGREE TWO SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DEGREE THREE IS)
DISPLACEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0 / 3.0 / S 0.0 / 0 H
4.A PRESSURE AT THE CENTER: 992 HPA
5.WIND MAX (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): 65 KM
6.A WIND EXTENSION BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SO: 220 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 0
7.A COAST / DIAM FIRST ISOBARE CLOSED: 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND = 040 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
24H: 19/03/2018 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.0 E, WIND MAX = 045 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
36H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND = 050 KT, POSTTROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 20/03/2018 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 050 KT, POSTTROPICAL LOW
60H: 21/03/2018 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 050 KT, POSTTROPICAL LOW
72H: 21/03/2018 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, POSTTROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B FUTURE TREND:
96H: 22/03/2018 18 UTC: 40.1 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, LOW
EXTRATROPICAL
2.C COMMENTS:
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONVECTION IS CLEARLY
REINFORCED, ENJOYING THE REMOVAL OF COTES MALGACHE, EN
STARTS TO ORGANIZE A CURVED BAND.
ELIAKIM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD AND SOUTH
ALONG THE WESTERN FACADE THEN SOUTHWEST OF A MIDDLE RIDGE
TROPOSPHERE BEFORE INTEGRATING CURRENT DISTURB OF AVERAGE
Latitudes.
THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FOR THE MOMENT OF A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE SIDE
POLAR AHEAD OF THE ALTITUDE THALWEG. THE REMOVAL OF THE COAST
SHOULD ALLOW A SMALL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT
HOURS. BUT STRENGTHENING A NORTHWEST ALTITUDE CONSTRAINT
BEFORE A TALWEG MONDAY DAY MONDAY SHOULD
LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD START PHASE
EXTRATROPICALIZATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINING INFLUENCE
DURING ITS DIVING TO LATITUDES SOUTH.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Mar, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ELIAKIM is currently located near 21.2 S 49.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). ELIAKIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Farafangana (22.8 S, 47.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Other

si201814_5day E 18 WUND

(Above image: @wunderground)

Doc E 18

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Pay special attention to the time forecasts were issued)

 

WTIO24 FMEE 181829
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 06 UTC:
23.2 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 18 UTC:
25.3 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vanuatu/ New Caledonia/ New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone Hola (12P) 10/1500Z position nr 26.3S 173.1E, moving SE 27kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Mar 2018 1525z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Hola (12P)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 27 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Hola) Warning #17
Issued at 10/1500Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 25.3S 172.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 145 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 172.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 29.1S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 32.2S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 35.6S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 173.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM NORTHEAST
OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION GETTING
SHEARED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATED POLEWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHICH IS
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS) AND COOL
SSTS (26C AND DROPPING). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 101052Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND THE PGTW
DVORAK FIX OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD, STEERED BY THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, AND RAPIDLY
DECAY. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO ETT BY TAU 12 AND
TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD BY TAU 36 AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

RSMC Nadi, Fiji LOGO

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone HOLA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 22 issued 1329 UTC Saturday 10 March 2018

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone HOLA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm March 10 2 25.4S 172.4E 110
+6hr 6 pm March 10 2 27.2S 173.4E 140
+12hr 12 am March 11 2 29.0S 174.2E 165
+18hr 6 am March 11 1 30.5S 174.7E 195
+24hr 12 pm March 11 1 31.9S 175.0E 220
+36hr 12 am March 12 tropical low 34.7S 176.2E 280
+48hr 12 pm March 12 tropical low 37.1S 179.4E 345
+60hr 12 am March 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 pm March 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone HOLA Category 2

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 22 issued 1330 UTC Saturday 10 March 2018

Note: the past cyclone track may be adjusted on the basis of later information. The forecast track is considered the most likely based on the information available at time of analysis, and there may be other possible future tracks.

 

Warning: Gales or stronger within 24 hours Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Alert: Gales or stronger within 24-48 hours Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds

For the 24 hr and 48 hr positions, the three radii represent the extent of Hurricane, Storm and Gale winds away from the centre.

 

Name: Tropical Cyclone HOLA
Situation At: 1200 UTC Saturday 10 March 2018
Location: 25.4S, 172.4E
Recent Movement: SE at 33 km/h

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

NEW ZEALAND

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0343 UTC 10-Mar-2018

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical Cyclone Hola (971hPa, Category 3) was analysed near 21.4S
169.0E (near the Loyalty Islands of New Caledonia) at 1300 New
Zealand time this afternoon and is moving southeast at 14 knots.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC SUN 11-MAR-2018
Tropical Cyclone Hola is expected to track southwards and start to
gradually weaken as well as move out of the tropics on Sunday.The
system is expected to undergo extra-tropical transition as it
approaches 30S later on Sunday.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC WED 14-MAR-2018
Cyclone Hola is expected to be extra-tropical and track close to the
upper North Island of New Zealand on Monday. Another low is located
near 6.7S 160.1E near the Solomon Islands at 1300 New Zealand time
today. This low is expected to track into the northern Coral Sea over
the next few days with the risk of it developing into a tropical
cyclone being LOW, but increasing to MODERATE from Tuesday next week.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Sun 11-Mar-2018

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2018

Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 30 for TAFEA province.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 30 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:38pm VUT Saturday 10 March 2018 for
TAFEA province.

At 5:00pm local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone HOLA [966hPa] Category 3
was located at 23.0 degrees South 170.3 degrees East. This is about 130 KM
southwest of Matthew and 235 KM west of Hunter. The system is located
at the bottom center of the square letter K, number 12 (K,12) of the Vanuatu
Cyclone Tracking Map. Severe Tropical Cyclone HOLA moved in an
south southeasterly direction at 47 KM/HR (25 knots) in the past 3 hours.

Winds close to the centre are estimated at 130 KM/HR (70 knots).
Severe Tropical Cyclone HOLA is forecasted to be at
26.5 degrees South 172.7 degrees East within the next 06 hours.

Gale force winds 75 KM/HR (40 knots) are expected to weaken over TAFEA province
in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Storm force winds of 110KM/HR (60 Knots) expected within 35 nautical miles of
the center will weaken as the system continues to track further east southeast
tonight.

Hurricane force winds of 145 KM/HR (85 knots) expected within 30 nautical miles
of the center will also weaken as the system maintains its current track of
movement tonight.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 10 Mar) 24.8S, 171.5E 60 KTS (110 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 11 Mar) 26.5S, 172.7E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 11 Mar) 28.2S, 173.4E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 11 Mar) 29.9S, 174.1E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 12 Mar) 32.7S, 174.9E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 12 Mar) 35.3S, 176.7E 25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5am, 13 Mar) 38.1S, 179.4W 20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5pm, 13 Mar) 42.0S, 173.0W 20 KTS (35 KM/HR)

Seas will remain very rough with heavy to phenomenal swells over TAFEA province.
Heavy rainfalls, thunderstorm and flash flooding over low lying areas and areas
close to the river banks including coastal flooding is still expected over TAFEA
province. Marine strong wind warning is current for Southern, Channel and Central
coastal waters. High seas warning for Vanuatu area south of 18S.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises that all clear for
TAFEA province.
This will be the final warning for this system, unless it turns back.

The warning is also available on the VMGD website: www.vmgd.gov.vu

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Mar, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HOLA is currently located near 25.3 S 172.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). HOLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Gisborne (38.7 S, 178.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Whangarei (35.7 S, 174.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Auckland (36.9 S, 174.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Hamilton (37.8 S, 175.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Hastings (39.6 S, 176.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

 

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 020 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 100059 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 971HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4 SOUTH 169.0
EAST AT 100000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 169.0E AT 100000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
110000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.3S 171.4E AT 101200 UTC
AND NEAR 27.5S 173.3E AT 110000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 019.

NEW ZEALAND

Marine Weather Bulletin for Subtropic

Area 25S to 40S, western boundary from 40S 163E to 29S 170E then to 25S 170E, eastern boundary 170W.

Issued by MetService at 9:06pm Saturday 10 Mar 2018

Forecast valid to 1:00am Monday 12 Mar 2018: Tropical Cyclone HOLA 980hPa centre was located near 22S 170E at 100600 UTC, moving southeast 15kt. Within 480 nautical miles of TC Hola: Clockwise 25kt, with storms and gales as in warning 191.Trough 25S 170E 28S 180 34S 170W moving southeast 15kt. Poor visibility in rain within 120 nautical miles of TC Hola and within 120 nautical miles of trough.

Outlook following 72 hours

Cyclone Hola near 31S 172E moving southeast. Clockwise 25kt to gale over much of area until 131200UTC, with storms near cyclone centre and heavy swells.

TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM WARNING 198
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Copy of STORM WARN issued by NADI at 10-Mar-2018 13:13 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone HOLA [985hPa] centre was located near 25.4 South 172.4 East at 101200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 25.4S 172.4E at 101200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 18 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre with high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 40 nautical miles of centre in the southwest quadrant and within 30 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 190 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 160 nautical miles of centre in the southwest quadrant and within 80 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast position near 29.0S 174.2E at 110000 UTC
and near 31.9S 175.0E at 111200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 191.

Issued at 2:20am Sunday 11 Mar 2018

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Reunion: Tropical Cyclone Dumazile (11S) 061500Z position nr 25.4S 55.1E, moving SE 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 06 Mar 2018 1652z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile (11S)

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Dumazile) Warning #17
Issued at 06/1500Z

sh11182

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
061200Z — NEAR 25.0S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 54.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 26.8S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 28.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 30.0S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 32.3S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 39.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME TOTALLY CLOUD-FILLED. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE INITIAL
POSITION HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO POSITION, AIDED ONLY BY A LOW
RESOLUTION 060955Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO
REFLECT AN LLC THAT REMAINS TIGHT DESPITE THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.TC
11S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS.
HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION TO
THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE, FOR NOW, CONDUCIVE AT
28C. AS DUMAZILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SSTS TO COOL RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN ETT BY TAU 36 AND BY TAU 72 WILL
TRANSITION INTO A 40-KNOT COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH AN
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

.

METEO FRANCE La Réunion
trajectoire1

 

WTIO31 FMEE 061307
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :69 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 570 SE: 720 SO: 460 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 430 SO: 350 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
24H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
36H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
48H: 08/03/2018 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
60H: 09/03/2018 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 09/03/2018 12 UTC: 40.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2018 12 UTC: 51.0 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.5+
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A CLAIREMENT EVOLUE CET APRESMIDI
VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE ENCORE INCLUS EN
BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. EN SE BASANT SUR L’ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DU CMRS, L’INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 70 KT. EN L’ABSENCE
D’IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES RECENTE, LA POSITION ANALYSEE EST RELATIVEMENT
INCERTAINE.
L’EVOLUTION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE TRADUIT UNE AUGMENTATION
SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D’OUEST. L’IMAGERIE VAPEUR D’EAU SUGGERE
QUE LE SYSTEME INTERAGIT AVEC LE TALWEG D’ALTITUDE PRESENT DANS SON
SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE DES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES EN COURS DE NUIT
PROCHAINE.
LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN CONTOURNANT LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHÈRE. TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, IL
RESTE, JUSQU’EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, EN INTERACTION FAVORABLE AVEC UN
TALWEG D’ALTITUDE SITUE DANS SON SECTEUR OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS (COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION). A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL N’Y A PLUS DE PHASAGE AVEC LA
DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT
AVANT DE SE FONDRE DANS LA CIRCULATION D’OUEST. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. L’INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN FIN D’ECHEANCE,
QUAND LE SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D’OUEST EN
DIRECTION DE L’ILE DE KERGUELEN QUI POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE
DEGRADATION DU TEMPS EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 6 Mar, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DUMAZILE is currently located near 25.0 S 54.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DUMAZILE is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DUMAZILE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Reunion
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

201811s_01

Current Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

Other

 

(Above image: @wunderground)

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 061225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO MORE THAN 550 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 230
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 310 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
26.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

QIO26 FIMP 061245

1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

 

 

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII (S) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS, ISSUED ON TUESDAY 06 MARCH 2018 AT 1240 UTC.

 

 

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF GALE FORCE.

NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS TOGETHER

WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITH HEAVY SWELLS EXIST IN AREA BOUNDED

BY LATITUDES 20S TO 30S AND LONGITUDES 55E TO 63E.

STRONG GUST UNDER SQUALLS.

 

 

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS OBSERVED AT 1200 UTC ON TUESDAY 06 MARCH

2018.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ‘DUMAZILE’ 960 HPA WAS CENTERED NEAR 24.7 S AND 53.9

E MOVEMENT SOUTH SOUTH EASTERLY 08 KT.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05S 60E, 06S 66E, 07S 70E.

WAVE NEAR 11S 69E, 12S 93E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19S 56E, 23S 59E, 26S 57E INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE

‘DUMAZILE’.

ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 18S 59E, 22S 61E, 27S 58E INTO TROPICAL

CYCLONE ‘ DUMAZILE’

REMNANT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM AXIS ALONG 25S 73E, 24S 82E, 25S 90E.

HIGH 1029 HPA NEAR 38S 71E.

 

 

PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO WEDNESDAY 07 MARCH 2018 AT 1200

UTC.

 

 

WEST 8/1: AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

 

REMAINDER 8/1: EAST NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 GUSTING

30. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/2: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. SOUTH EASTERLY

TO EASTERLY 15-25 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE IN NORTH, ROUGH IN SOUTH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEM

AXIS, SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS

BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/3: CLOCKWISE 10-15 AROUND WAVE IN NORTH EAST. EASTERLY TO EAST

NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN REMAINING EAST. NORTH WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY

10-20 GUSTING 30 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE BECOMING ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY

ROUGH IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH WEST AND NORTH EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS

ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

 

 

8/4: VARIABLE 05-10 IN EXTREME NORTH. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY

10-20 ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME NORTH EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/5: NORTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY . SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

 

 

8/6: NORTHERLY TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 05 IN EAST. NORTH WESTERLY TO

WESTERLY 05-10 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY

MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/7: EAST NORTH EASTERLY BACKING TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 10-20. SEA

MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS

 

 

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

WIND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN REMAINING 8/1.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Syria: Humanitarian Aid Reaches Eastern Ghouta – Published 05 Mar 2018 1522z (GMT/UTC)

1h3a0332-700x400

icrc1

ICRC Syria entering Eastern Ghouta with @SYRedCrescent and @UN. (Image @ICRC_sy)

The Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) and humanitarian partners delivered 46 truckloads of food relief aid for 27,500 people and health items for more than 70,000 people inside Duma in eastern Ghouta.

The convoy included aid from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the United Nations, and SARC. The truckloads included food baskets, flour, medical supplies, a kidney treatment facility, baby milk and nutritional foods.

The Syrian Arab Red Crescent included a mobile clinic to support SARC’s medical facilities functioning in Duma, and to provide rapid primary healthcare to children and vulnerable people.

Eng. Khaled Hboubati, SARC’s President said: “SARC volunteers and staff stand ready 24/7 to deliver humanitarian support to all people in need in Syria”. He added, “this convoy to Duma/Eastern Ghouta is the first one as approved by the humanitarian aid monthly plan of the Syrian High Relief Committee”.

The last convoy entered Eastern Ghouta on Feb 14th, 2018. – SARC

(Images below: SARC)

SARC4.jpgSARC3.jpgSARC2.jpg

SARC6

SARC7