Philippines: LOW Former TD 35W (TD Usman in Philippines) 30/1400Z 8.3N 116.0E (PAGASA) – Updated 30 Dec 2018 1550Z (GMT/UTC)

LOW PRESSURE AREA 35W

(TD Usman in Philippines)

At 10:00 AM today ,  the  Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression “USMAN”)   was estimated, based on all available data, at 340 km West Southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  (8.3 °N, 116.0 °E).  – PAGASA

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

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PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Weather Advisory

Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression

At 10:00 AM today ,  the   Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression “USMAN”)   was estimated, based on all available data, at 340 km West Southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  (8.3 °N, 116.0 °E).  

This weather disturbance, along with the  Tail-End of a Cold Front , will continue to bring, in the next 24 hours , moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Bicol Region, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, and Northern Palawan incl. Calamian and Cuyo Groups of Islands. Meanwhile, light to moderate rains will prevail over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region(CAR) and the rest of Cagayan Valley Region, of CALABARZON, of Central Luzon and of Palawan.   Residents of these areas, especially those living near river channels and in low-lying and mountainous areas, are advised to take appropriate measures, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates.   Due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.   Sea travel remains risky over the seaboards of Luzon, and the eastern seaboard of Visayas. The public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates to be  incorporated in the public weather forecast at 4:00 PM today and 4:00 AM tomorrow. The next weather advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Depression 35W (Thirtyfive) Warning #23 Final Warning
Issued at 30/0300Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300000Z — NEAR 8.8N 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 119.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 8.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 8.1N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 119.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354
NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAGGED LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES INTO A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH ISOLATED, FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 292221Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS LIMITED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
SYSTEM IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAK
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 35W IS LOCATED WITHIN A
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT ADJACENT TO EXTENSIVE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 365NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA (INVEST 97W), THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR / NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
IT CROSSES PALAWAN ISLAND AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OUTER PERIPHERY
OF INVEST 97W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Gale Warning

Gale Warning # 10

Issued at: 5:00 PM today, 30 December 2018

Strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of northeast monsoon.

Strong to gale force winds is expected to affect the following areas.
Seaboard Weather Wind Force (kph/knots) Sea Condition Wave Height (meters)
The seaboards of northern and central luzon (Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, And Aurora) Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains (45 – 80) / (24 – 43) Rough to high 2.8 to 7.0
The western seaboard of southern luzon (Northern Palawan And Occidental Mindoro) Mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms (45 – 68) / (24 – 36) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 5.0
The eastern seaboard of southern luzon (Eastern Coast Of Quezon Including Polillo Island, Camarines Norte, Northern And Eastern Coasts Of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Eastern Coast Of Albay, And Eastern Coast Of Sorsogon) Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains (45 – 68) / (24 – 36) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 5.0
The eastern seaboard of visayas (Northern Samar And Eastern Samar) Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms (45 – 63) / (24 – 34) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 4.5

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves.

The next update will be issued at 5:00 am tomorrow.

Area Synopsis and 24-Hour Shipping Forecast

RPMM 300600
AREA SYNOPSIS AND 24-HOUR SHIPPING FORECAST
BEGINNING 301200
December 2018
Synopsis

SYNOPSIS: STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON PREVAILING OVER THE SHIPPING AREAS NORTH OF ONE EIGHT NORTH X SCARBOROUGH X MINDORO X CENTRAL PHILIPPINE AREA NORTH OF ONE TWO NORTH BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES TO EASTERLIES OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA PD

Shipping Zones Weather Condition Wind direction and Speed Wave Height
(meters)
Sea Condition
Bashi CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Balintang CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Scarborough CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Central Philippine AREA NORTH OF ONE FIVE NORTH CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
MINDORO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
EAST TAIWAN CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
RYUKYU CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
NORTH PHILIPPINE CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
REST OF CENTRAL PHILIPPINE Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
INLAND AREA NORTH OF ONE THREE NORTH Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM12 UP TO 15 MPS (24 – 30 KT) 2.8 – 3.7 Rough
SULU AREA NORTH OF ONE ZERO NORTH Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 15 MPS (24 – 30 KT) 2.8 – 3.7 Rough
South Philippine Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 14 MPS (16 – 28 KT) 1.2 – 3.4 Moderate to Rough
PALAWAN MOSTLY cloudy skies with SCATTERED rains and thunderstorms EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
REST OF INLAND Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
REST OF SULU Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
MINDANAO Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 11 MPS (16 – 22 KT) 1.2 – 2.5 Moderate to occasionally Rough
MORO Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 4 UP TO 10 MPS (8 – 20 KT) 0.6 – 2.1 SLIGHT TO MODERATE

WWJP27 RJTD 301200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 301200.
WARNING VALID 311200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 950 HPA
AT 51N 176E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 18 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 984 HPA
AT 42N 157E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 29N 122E 19N 123E 14N 116E 08N 110E
07N 107E 10N 107E 13N 109E 16N 108E 22N 112E 24N 118E 29N 122E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 114E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 172E TO 29N 176E 31N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Mauritius/ Rodrigues/ La Reunion: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA 07S 21/1200Z 15.2S 57.7E, moving S 06ky 950hpa (RSMC LaReunion) – Published 21 Dec 2018 1417Z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA 07S

CILIDA is a now category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to intensify further to a category 5 storm on same scale by 22 Dec, 0:00

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Latest position see Maritime/Shipping section below

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cilida) Warning #10
Issued at 21/0900Z

sh0719

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 14.6S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 58.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 15.6S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 17.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 18.9S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 20.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 24.7S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z — 29.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 65 KNOTS AT 20/06Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED 15NM EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION DUE TO
LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 210522Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING WITH AN OBLONG EYEWALL SURROUNDING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5/6.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES AS WELL AS A RECENT CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 109 KNOTS. TC 07S
IS WOBBLING SLIGHTLY AS IT SLOWLY TURNS POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 155NM AT TAU 72
AND 220NM AT TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, TC CILIDA WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24-26C). THE SYSTEM
SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

SWI05_20182019

 

Bulletin du 21 décembre à 10H29 locales Réunion:
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CILIDA.
Pression estimée au centre: 955 HPA.
Position le 21 décembre à 10 heures locales Réunion: 14.6 Sud / 58.0 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 745 km au secteur: NORD-NORD-EST.
Distance de Mayotte : 1390 km au secteur: EST.
Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 9 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le “Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique” (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

Bulletin of December 21 at 10:29 La Reunion:
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CILIDA.
Estimated pressure in the center: 955 HPA.
Position December 21 at 10 am local Meeting: 14.6 South / 58.0 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 745 km to the sector: NORD-NORD-EST.
Distance from Mayotte: 1390 km to the area: EST.
Travel: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 9 km / h.
This newsletter is now complete.
Consult the “Cyclonic Activity Bulletin” (see link below)
to get the forecasts on this system.

http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours/dirre/CILIDA

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Dec, 2018 6:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA is currently located near 14.6 S 58.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). CILIDA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. CILIDA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mauritius
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds (US hurricane scale)

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 211215
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 00 UTC:
16.4 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

India/ Bay Of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm Phethai 08B 15/1500Z position nr 10.8N 84.9E, moving NNW 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Dec 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Phethai/ Tropical Cyclone 08B

DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS – RSMC New Delhi

INDIA: Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 08B (Eight) Warning #02
Issued at 15/1500Z

io0818

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 10.4N 85.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 85.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 11.9N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 13.4N 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 15.1N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 16.6N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 19.1N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 151251Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A 150326Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF
BENGAL. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER INDIA. DUE TO TC 08B’S BROAD STRUCTURE AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 08B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING
VWS (30-50 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, COOLER SST (25-26C),
DRIER AIR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TC 08B WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72 AS IT
BEGINS TO RECURVE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

INDIA

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 1
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 1 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 15.12.2018 BASED ON 1200 UTC
OF 15.12.2018.
DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL:
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI (PRONOUNCED AS PAY-TI)’
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 15TH DECEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.3°N AND LONGITUDE 84.9°E, ABOUT 440 KM EASTNORTHEAST
OF TRINCOMALEE (43418) (SRI LANKA), 590 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI (43278) (TAMIL NADU) AND 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MACHILIPATNAM
(43185) (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS
AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN
MACHILIPATNAM AND KAKINADA DURING 17TH DECEMBER AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat.°N/ long.°E)
Maximum sustained
surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
15.12.18/1200 10.3/84.9 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
15.12.18/1800 11.0/84.4 65-75 gusting to 85 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/0000 11.8/83.7 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/0600 12.4/83.2 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/1200 13.3/82.7 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/0000 15.0/82.1 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/1200 16.4/82.1 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/0000 17.5/82.6 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/1200 18.3/83.4 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1200 UTC ON 15TH DECEMBER THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM OVER SW BAY & N/HOOD IS T 2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER AREA
BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.5°N TO 15.0°N AND LONG 82.0°E TO 92.0°E (.) MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93.1° C.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA
IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4 WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH AMPLITUDE
GREATER THAN 1 FOR NEXT 4-5 DAYS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION & INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) IS 28-29˚C AROUND THE SYSTEM AREA. IT IS DECREASING SLIGHTLY BECOMING
26-28˚C TOWARDS WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ALONG & OFF ANDHRA
PRADESH COAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2
OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF BOB ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 60×10-
5 SECOND-1 TOWARDS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. LOWER LEVEL
VORTICITY IS 200×10-6 SECOND 1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS 20×10-5 SECOND-1 TOWARDS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND
INCREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES WARM AND MOIST AIR FEEDING INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM FROM
SOUTHEAST SECTOR AND DRY & COLD AIR PREVAILS OVER PENINSULAR INDIA. ALL
THESE MAY LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 16°N. THE SYSTEM IS BEING GUIDED
BY THE ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA, AND HENCE WILL HAVE MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. AS PER THE
MODEL FORECAST A DEEP TROUGH IN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES IS
APPROACHING THE INDIAN REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO RECURVATURE OF THE
SYSTEM TO NORTHEAST AFTER LANDFALL OVER ANDHRA PRADESH COAST. FURTHER
UNDER THE COMBIND EFFECT OF ANTICYCLONE AND ABOVE TROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. IT MAY
LEAD TO INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION. HENCE THERE IS POSSIBILITIES
OF WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY ON 17TH DECEMBER BEFORE LANDFALL DUE
TO DRY & COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHWEST AND COLDER SST & LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND HIGH WIND SHEAR. LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND SUGGEST
WIND SPEED OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS ARE HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. MOST OF
THE NWP MODEL GUIDENCE AGREE WITH ABOVE ANALYSIS.
(V.R. DURAI)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Dec, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EIGHT is currently located near 10.4 N 85.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). EIGHT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Kavali (14.9 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151609

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1500 UTC 15 DECEMBER 2018.

PART:-I STORM WARNING.

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 09 KNOTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM PHETHAI (PRONOUNCED
AS PAY-TI) AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 15 TH DECEMBER, 2018 OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.9
DEG E, ABOUT 440 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA), 590 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU) AND 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MACHILIPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
BETWEEN MACHILIPATNAM AND KAKINADA DURING 0900 UTC TO 1200 UTC OF
17 TH DECEMBER (.)

PART:-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E :N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 72 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E TO 72 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E :NE/N-LY 15/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 1 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N :NE/E-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:NE/N-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 16 DEG N TO 70 DEG E AND NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF16 DEG N (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E NE-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 20 DEG N :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N :NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E TO 72 DEG E :NE-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 62 DEG E (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 72 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
4)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E :NE/N-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 66 DEG E 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA :0.5-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N: CYCLONIC 40/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: W/NW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-4.5-9.0 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N E-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS TO THE W OF 87 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N NW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2.5-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 15 DEG N CYCLONIC 40/54 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 93 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG TO W OF 93 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 15 DEG N :5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2.5-5.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 17 DEG N : N/NE-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
1)S OF 17 DEG N :CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 18 DEG N :5.0-10.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 3.5-5.0 MTR (.)

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P 13/0600Z 15.1S 136.1E, slow moving. Max Wind 75kt. 961hPa (BoM) – Updated 13 Dec 2018 1000Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P

Australian Category 3 intensity = Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Severe TC Owen may reach Australian Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..– BoM

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP NT

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Issued at 4:53 pm ACST Thursday 13 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 24.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:
– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.
– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.
– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.
– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.
– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using
available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm December 13 3 15.1S 136.1E 35
+6hr 10 pm December 13 3 15.0S 136.5E 60
+12hr 4 am December 14 4 14.8S 137.2E 80
+18hr 10 am December 14 4 14.8S 138.1E 105
+24hr 4 pm December 14 4 15.0S 139.3E 130
+36hr 4 am December 15 3 15.8S 141.7E 165
+48hr 4 pm December 15 tropical low 17.2S 143.9E 200
+60hr 4 am December 16 tropical low 18.7S 145.7E 235
+72hr 4 pm December 16 tropical low 20.1S 147.5E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 pm ACST Thursday

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Issued at 5:28 pm AEST Thursday 13 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 24.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 4:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:
– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.
– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.
– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.
– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.
– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using
available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm December 13 3 15.1S 136.1E 35
+6hr 10 pm December 13 3 15.0S 136.5E 60
+12hr 4 am December 14 4 14.8S 137.2E 80
+18hr 10 am December 14 4 14.8S 138.1E 105
+24hr 4 pm December 14 4 15.0S 139.3E 130
+36hr 4 am December 15 3 15.8S 141.7E 165
+48hr 4 pm December 15 tropical low 17.2S 143.9E 200
+60hr 4 am December 16 tropical low 18.7S 145.7E 235
+72hr 4 pm December 16 tropical low 20.1S 147.5E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:30 pm AEST Thursday

 

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Port Roper and Port McArthur, including Port McArthur are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 4:52 pm ACST [5:22 pm AEST] on Thursday 13 December 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw.

Watch Zone
Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen.

Cancelled Zone
None

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST [4:00 pm AEST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South 136.1 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur.

Movement: slow moving.

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

 

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

 

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

 

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

 

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

 

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:

– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.

– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.

– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.

– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.

– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

 

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

 

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using

available daylight hours/before nightfall].

 

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

 

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm ACST Thursday 13 December [8:30 pm AEST Thursday 13 December].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2018 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Cyclone OWEN is currently located near 15.1 S 136.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). OWEN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OWEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alyangula (13.9 S, 136.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Numbulwar (14.5 S, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Borroloola (16.1 S, 136.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Edward River (15.0 S, 141.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (Hurricane) or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:15S136E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, PERTH
Issued at 0724UTC 13 DECEMBER 2018

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal one south (15.1S)
longitude one hundred and thirty six decimal one east (136.1E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 75 knots
Central pressure: 961 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre increasing to 95 knots by 0000 UTC 14
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 13 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.8 south 137.2 east
Central pressure 949 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 14 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.0 south 139.3 east
Central pressure 946 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1330 UTC 13 December 2018.

PERTH Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

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