Australia (NT, QLD): Tropical Cyclone NINETEEN 07U 19P 23/1500Z (1:00 am AEST) nr 15.9S 139.4E, moving SSE 9.7kt. Wind ~35.09kt, gust ~51.2kt. 994 hPa at 12Z (TCWC Brisbane) – Published 23 Feb 2020 1753Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone NINETEEN 07U 19P

Tropical low approaching Mornington Island. Expected to develop into a (Australian) category 1 tropical cyclone within the next few hours.

Warning zone: Port Roper to Kowanyama, including Borroloola and Mornington Island and adjacent inland areas between Cape Crawford and Century Mine, including Doomadgee.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Tropical Low

Issued at 1:36 am AEST Monday 24 February 2020. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 17.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical low approaching Mornington Island. Expected to develop into a category 1 tropical cyclone within the next few hours.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Port Roper to Kowanyama, including Borroloola and Mornington Island and adjacent inland areas between Cape Crawford and Century Mine, including Doomadgee.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Watch cancelled for inland areas between Limmen National Park and Brunette Downs.

Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 am AEST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.9 degrees South, 139.4 degrees East , 90 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 330 kilometres east of Borroloola .
Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low is expected to turn to the southwest, and to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next few hours. The system is expected to pass close to Mornington Island before crossing the Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Borroloola and Burketown later on Monday. Although some further intensification of the system is expected during this period, a category 2 impact is now considered unlikely.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are occurring intermittently on Mornington Island, and are expected to extend onto the coast between Borroloola and Burketown during the next few hours. GALES may extend further to coastal and island communities between Port Roper and Kowanyama (including Borroloola, Burketown, and Karumba) , later on Monday depending on the movement and intensity of the system. These GALES may extend further inland over the Northern Territory and far northwest Queensland later on Monday as the system moves inland.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are no longer expected.

A STORM TIDE between Port McArthur and Karumba is expected as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING between Port McArthur and Karumba. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to develop about the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next couple of days. Large waves may produce at least MINOR FLOODING along low-lying coastal areas. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

HEAVY RAIN with the potential to cause flash flooding is expected in areas around the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next couple of days, then move west following the low over the coming days. Flood Watches are current for Gulf of Carpentaria catchments.

Recommended Action:

In the Northern Territory, NTES advises:
– People from Port Roper to the NT/Qld Border and surrounding areas should activate their household plan now.
– Start preparations for a cyclone, know where you will shelter.
– Listen for the next advice.
– For cyclone safety and preparation advice http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

In Queensland:
People between the NT/Qld border and Burketown, including Mornington and Sweers Islands, should remain inside until the gales have passed and listen to the next advice at 5am AEST
People elsewhere between the NT/Qld border and Kowanyama, including Karumba, and inland areas between Normanton and the NT/Qld border, including Doomadgee, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 1 am February 24 tropical low 15.9S 139.4E 55
+6hr 7 am February 24 1 16.5S 139.2E 60
+12hr 1 pm February 24 1 16.9S 138.7E 80
+18hr 7 pm February 24 1 17.1S 137.9E 105
+24hr 1 am February 25 1 17.3S 137.1E 130
+36hr 1 pm February 25 tropical low 17.4S 135.4E 165
+48hr 1 am February 26 tropical low 17.3S 133.9E 200
+60hr 1 pm February 26 tropical low 17.0S 132.3E 235
+72hr 1 am February 27 tropical low 16.5S 130.7E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Monday

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP NT

Tropical Low

Issued at 1:07 am ACST Monday 24 February 2020. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 17.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical low approaching Mornington Island. Expected to develop into a category 1 tropical cyclone within the next few hours.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Port Roper to Kowanyama, including Borroloola and Mornington Island and adjacent inland areas between Cape Crawford and Century Mine, including Doomadgee.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Watch cancelled for inland areas between Limmen National Park and Brunette Downs.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:30 am ACST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.9 degrees South, 139.4 degrees East , 90 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 330 kilometres east of Borroloola .
Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low is expected to turn to the southwest, and to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next few hours. The system is expected to pass close to Mornington Island before crossing the Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Borroloola and Burketown later on Monday. Although some further intensification of the system is expected during this period, a category 2 impact is now considered unlikely.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are occurring intermittently on Mornington Island, and are expected to extend onto the coast between Borroloola and Burketown during the next few hours. GALES may extend further to coastal and island communities between Port Roper and Kowanyama (including Borroloola, Burketown, and Karumba) , later on Monday depending on the movement and intensity of the system. These GALES may extend further inland over the Northern Territory and far northwest Queensland later on Monday as the system moves inland.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are no longer expected.

A STORM TIDE between Port McArthur and Karumba is expected as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING between Port McArthur and Karumba. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to develop about the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next couple of days. Large waves may produce at least MINOR FLOODING along low-lying coastal areas. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

HEAVY RAIN with the potential to cause flash flooding is expected in areas around the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next couple of days, then move west following the low over the coming days. Flood Watches are current for Gulf of Carpentaria catchments.

Recommended Action:

In the Northern Territory, NTES advises:
– People from Port Roper to the NT/Qld Border and surrounding areas should activate their household plan now.
– Start preparations for a cyclone, know where you will shelter.
– Listen for the next advice.
– For cyclone safety and preparation advice http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

In Queensland:
People between the NT/Qld border and Burketown, including Mornington and Sweers Islands, should remain inside until the gales have passed and listen to the next advice at 5am AEST
People elsewhere between the NT/Qld border and Kowanyama, including Karumba, and inland areas between Normanton and the NT/Qld border, including Doomadgee, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 1 am February 24 tropical low 15.9S 139.4E 55
+6hr 7 am February 24 1 16.5S 139.2E 60
+12hr 1 pm February 24 1 16.9S 138.7E 80
+18hr 7 pm February 24 1 17.1S 137.9E 105
+24hr 1 am February 25 1 17.3S 137.1E 130
+36hr 1 pm February 25 tropical low 17.4S 135.4E 165
+48hr 1 am February 26 tropical low 17.3S 133.9E 200
+60hr 1 pm February 26 tropical low 17.0S 132.3E 235
+72hr 1 am February 27 tropical low 16.5S 130.7E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 4:30 am ACST Monday

 

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17

Issued at 1:39 am EST on Monday 24 February 2020

Headline:

Tropical low approaching Mornington Island. Expected to develop into a category 1 tropical cyclone within the next few hours.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Port Roper to Kowanyama, including Borroloola and Mornington Island and adjacent inland areas between Cape Crawford and Century Mine, including Doomadgee.

Watch Zone

None.

Cancelled Zone

Watch cancelled for inland areas between Limmen National Park and Brunette Downs.

Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 am AEST [12:30 am ACST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low (993 hPa), sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.9 degrees South 139.4 degrees East, estimated to be 90 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 330 kilometres east of Borroloola.

Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to turn to the southwest, and to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next few hours. The system is expected to pass close to Mornington Island before crossing the Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Borroloola and Burketown later on Monday. Although some further intensification of the system is expected during this period, a category 2 impact is now considered unlikely.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are occurring intermittently on Mornington Island, and are expected to extend onto the coast between Borroloola and Burketown during the next few hours. GALES may extend further to coastal and island communities between Port Roper and Kowanyama (including Borroloola, Burketown, and Karumba) , later on Monday depending on the movement and intensity of the system. These GALES may extend further inland over the Northern Territory and far northwest Queensland later on Monday as the system moves inland.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are no longer expected.

A STORM TIDE between Port McArthur and Karumba is expected as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING between Port McArthur and Karumba. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to develop about the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next couple of days. Large waves may produce at least MINOR FLOODING along low-lying coastal areas. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

HEAVY RAIN with the potential to cause flash flooding is expected in areas around the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next couple of days, then move west following the low over the coming days. Flood Watches are current for Gulf of Carpentaria catchments.

Recommended Action:

In the Northern Territory, NTES advises:

– People from Port Roper to the NT/Qld Border and surrounding areas should activate their household plan now.

– Start preparations for a cyclone, know where you will shelter.

– Listen for the next advice.

– For cyclone safety and preparation advice http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

In Queensland:

People between the NT/Qld border and Burketown, including Mornington and Sweers Islands, should remain inside until the gales have passed and listen to the next advice at 5am AEST

People elsewhere between the NT/Qld border and Kowanyama, including Karumba, and inland areas between Normanton and the NT/Qld border, including Doomadgee, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Monday 24 February [4:30 am ACST Monday 24 February].

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Feb, 2020 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NINETEEN is currently located near 15.5 S 139.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). NINETEEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Burketown (17.7 S, 139.4 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Borroloola (16.1 S, 136.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently
    Alexandria (19.0 S, 136.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDQ20008
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1305UTC 23 FEBRUARY 2020

STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal three south (15.3S)
longitude one hundred and thirty nine decimal one east (139.1E)
Recent movement : south southeast at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0200 UTC 24
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell after 0200 UTC 24 February.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of the centre after 1800 UTC 23
February with very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 24 February: Within 45 nautical miles of 16.4 south 138.7 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 24 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 16.9 south 137.2 east over
land
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 23 February 2020.

WEATHER BRISBANE

===========================================================================================================
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Tropical Cyclone DAMIEN 14S 080000 AWST/081600Z Australian CAT2 nr 21.6S 117.1E, moving SW 15km/h ~8.09kt. Wind 110kph~59.39kt, gust 155kph~83.69kt (BoM) – Updated 08 Feb 2020 1838Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Damien

Tropical Cyclone Damien has weakened to a Category 2 system (Australian scale)

Warning zone: Mardie to Whim Creek, including Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica, but not including Port Hedland, and extending inland to parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne, including Tom Price, Paraburdoo and Mount Augustus but not including Newman..

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Damien

Issued at 12:01 am AWST Sunday 9 February 2020. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 39.

idw60280-1

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Damien has weakened to a Category 2 system.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Mardie to Whim Creek, including Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica, but not including Port Hedland, and extending inland to parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne, including Tom Price, Paraburdoo and Mount Augustus but not including Newman..

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Damien at 12:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 21.6 degrees South, 117.1 degrees East , 100 kilometres south southeast of Karratha and 85 kilometres east of Pannawonica .
Movement: south southeast at 15 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Damien will continue to weaken as it moves further inland.

Hazards:

DESTRUCTIVE winds have eased in the Karratha region but are continuing near the cyclone centre.

GALES are occurring along parts of the central Pilbara coast between Whim Creek and Mardie, including Karratha and Dampier. Gales will extend inland towards parts of the central Pilbara, including Tom Price, overnight.

GALES with DAMAGING wind gusts will ease in the Karratha region over the next few hours. Conditions in Pannawonica are also likely to begin to ease within the next few hours.

GALES will extend further inland through the central Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne overnight and on Sunday as the cyclone tracks further inland.

Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in the Pilbara and Gascoyne as the cyclone moves inland over the weekend. Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Whim Creek to Mardie (not including Mardie) and south to Pannawonica (including Pannawonica, Whim Creek, Point Samson, Cossack, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier) need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Whim Creek (not including Whim Creek), east to Yule River (not including Yule River), south to Wittenoom and west to Fortescue (but not including Fortescue), need to prepare for cyclonic weather and move to shelter.

BLUE ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Fortescue, Paraburdoo, Tom Price, Nullagine and Marble Bar (not including Nullagine and Marble Bar) need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: Wallal Downs to Yule River including Nullagine, Marble Bar, Port Hedland, Barrow Island, Onslow and to Fortescue (not including Fortescue).

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life-threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.emergency.wa.gov.au

DFES advises that:
Communities in the Cyclone Warning zone should continue to monitor advice issued as changes to alerts and warnings may occur.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am February 9 2 21.6S 117.1E 35
+6hr 6 am February 9 2 22.2S 117.4E 55
+12hr 12 pm February 9 1 22.8S 117.6E 75
+18hr 6 pm February 9 1 23.2S 117.7E 100
+24hr 12 am February 10 tropical low 23.7S 117.8E 130
+36hr 12 pm February 10 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+48hr 12 am February 11 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 12 pm February 11 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 am February 12 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Sunday

IDW24100

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Pannawonica and Tom Price are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39

Issued at 11:58 pm WST on Saturday 8 February 2020

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Damien has weakened to a Category 2 system.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Mardie to Whim Creek, including Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica, but not including Port Hedland, and extending inland to parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne, including Tom Price, Paraburdoo and Mount Augustus but not including Newman.

Watch Zone

None

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Damien at 12:00 am AWST:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 21.6 degrees South 117.1 degrees East, estimated to be 100 kilometres south southeast of Karratha and 85 kilometres east of Pannawonica.

Movement: south southeast at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will continue to weaken as it moves further inland.

Hazards:

DESTRUCTIVE winds have eased in the Karratha region but are continuing near the cyclone centre.

GALES are occurring along parts of the central Pilbara coast between Whim Creek and Mardie, including Karratha and Dampier. Gales will extend inland towards parts of the central Pilbara, including Tom Price, overnight.

GALES with DAMAGING wind gusts will ease in the Karratha region over the next few hours. Conditions in Pannawonica are also likely to begin to ease within the next few hours.

GALES will extend further inland through the central Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne overnight and on Sunday as the cyclone tracks further inland.

Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in the Pilbara and Gascoyne as the cyclone moves inland over the weekend. Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Whim Creek to Mardie (not including Mardie) and south to Pannawonica (including Pannawonica, Whim Creek, Point Samson, Cossack, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier) need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Whim Creek (not including Whim Creek), east to Yule River (not including Yule River), south to Wittenoom and west to Fortescue (but not including Fortescue), need to prepare for cyclonic weather and move to shelter.

BLUE ALERT effective as of 11:30pm 8 Feb 2020: People in or near Fortescue, Paraburdoo, Tom Price, Nullagine and Marble Bar (not including Nullagine and Marble Bar) need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: Wallal Downs to Yule River including Nullagine, Marble Bar, Port Hedland, Barrow Island, Onslow and to Fortescue (not including Fortescue).

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life-threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.emergency.wa.gov.au

DFES advises that:

Communities in the Cyclone Warning zone should continue to monitor advice issued as changes to alerts and warnings may occur.

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Sunday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 8 Feb, 2020 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone DAMIEN is currently located near 21.3 S 116.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). DAMIEN is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DAMIEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Damien) Warning #11 Final Warning
Issued at 08/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 21.3S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 116.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 22.8S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 23.9S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 25.0S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 117.0E.
08FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DAMIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
167 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND REVEAL
AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE SURROUNDED BY SPIRAL BANDING,
INDICATING A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 85 KNOTS. FURTHERMORE, THE PRESENCE OF THE
EYE STRUCTURE IN EIR AND RADAR LOOPS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. TC DAMIEN HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION, DESPITE CONTINUED ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND, HOWEVER, IT WILL BECOME EMBEDDED
IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24
AND FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:21S117E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1224UTC 8 FEBRUARY 2020

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Damien was centred within 10 nautical miles
of
latitude twenty one decimal two south (21.2S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal nine east (116.9E)
Recent movement : south southeast at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 967 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre.

Winds above 64 knots overland within 25 nautical miles of centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre. Very rough to high
seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and low to
moderate swell.

Winds over the ocean will have eased below gale force by 1800 UTC 08 February.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 09 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 22.5 south 117.4 east
[over land]
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 09 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 23.5 south 117.7 east
[over land]
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 08 February 2020.

WEATHER PERTH

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