Mexico: Low Pressure Area, Invest 97E, has 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours – 311013 2325z

Low Pressure Area Invest 97E

(Image: wunderground.com) Computer Models (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT THU OCT 31 2013

 

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

 

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR A LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO

MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR ON

FRIDAY WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A HIGH CHANCE…80

PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

 

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS

ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT…

 

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

 

FORECASTER BERG

 

 

�MARITIME

(Image: NHC)

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 311130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC THU OCT 31 2013

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT�WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

�HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING�
.LOW 40N162E 984 MB MOVING NE 25 KT AND INTENSIFYING. WITHIN 180
NM W AND NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT. ALSO
FROM 31N TO 44N W OF 172E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 46N W OF 175E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO
18 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N169E 972 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND 180 NM
W QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 TO 32 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N174E 966 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SW AND
180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 TO 38 FT. ALSO
FROM 36N TO 53N BETWEEN 172W AND 169E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14
TO 33 FT�HIGHEST NEAR 42N175E. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 55N
BETWEEN 170W AND 167E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N172W 972 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
48N164W TO 40N172W TO 32N179W. WITHIN 300 NM E AND SE
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 32 FT. ALSO WITHIN 480
NM E AND 420 NM W SEMICIRCLES�AND WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF
40N WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM
E OF ENTIRE FRONT�AND WITHIN 660 NM E AND 480 NM W SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT.

�GALE WARNING�
.LOW 59N149W 980 MB DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING. WITHIN 300 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM NE�600 NM SE�840 NM W AND SW�AND 90 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N148W 1000 MB. WITHIN 540 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N149W 1013 MB. FROM 51N TO 56N BETWEEN
133W AND 147W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

�GALE WARNING�
.LOW 51N179W 1005 MB MOVING E 30 KT AND WEAKENING. WITHIN 300 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
42N TO 51N BETWEEN 170W AND 174E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N158W 1016 MB. FROM 43N TO 50N BETWEEN
154W AND 164W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

�GALE WARNING�
.LOW 44N141W 1018 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N134W 1020 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N132W 1016 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W AND SW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N127W 1008 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NE�240 NM
SW�AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE�240 NM SE�540 NM SW�AND 300 NM
NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

�GALE WARNING�
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 47N154E 1000 MB. FROM 35N TO 45N
W OF 165E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N165E 995 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE�420 NM
SW�AND 180 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO
18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N170E 994 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE�360 NM
SW�AND 240 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO
23 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 48N W OF 179E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 160W AND 177E AREA OF E TO NE WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 540 NM W OF A LINE FROM 30N156W TO
40N143W AREA OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 480 NM W OF A LINE FROM 30N155W TO
40N133W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 180 NM OF
43N142W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 174W AND 174E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE FROM
51N161W TO 43N169W.

.HIGH 38N130W 1026 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N128W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MOVED INLAND.

.HIGH 33N143W 1028 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 37N176W 1031 MB MOVING NE 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N162W 1034 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N153W 1036 MB.

.HIGH 53N172E 1012 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N108W 1009 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES�POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE�NEAR
17N108W 1008 MB. FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES�POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE�NEAR
18N108W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 17N106W TO
11N110W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W SW WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC THU OCT 31�

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH�
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N100W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 14N108W TO 08N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 100
NM N OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 106W TO 110W AND FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN
110W AND 116W AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 126W.

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 31 2013.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 01 2013.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 02 2013.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FRONT FROM 30N162W TO 25N174W TO 24N180E TO 23N172E. FRONT
MOVING E 10 KT N OF 28N�NEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE. NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT N OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DISSIPATING FRONT FROM 30N155W TO 27N161W TO
26N176W. NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF FRONT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHED
TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS DIMINISHED TO 8 FT OR LESS.

.TROUGH FROM 30N159W TO 24N162W NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MERGED WITH FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE.

.FRONT NW OF AREA MOVING SE 15 KT. S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N
OF 29N W OF 163E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N167E TO 28N160E. ASSOCIATED
WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N172E TO 26N160E.

.TROUGH FROM 02N165E TO 05N172E TO 09N177E MOVING W 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 179E
AND 170E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 03N160E TO 05N166E TO 10N168E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 04N160E TO 09N164E.

.RIDGE FROM 30N175E TO 25N160E MOVING E 20 KT AND ERODING FROM
THE W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 167E AND
163E� FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 165E AND 162E�AND WITHIN 60 NM
OF A LINE FROM 18N167W TO 23N163W.

.ITCZ FROM 08N140W TO 09N159W TO 09N170W TO 07N180W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 161W AND 174W.

$$

.FORECASTER BIRCHARD. HONOLULU HI.=

 

Spanish (Translated by Google)

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Ireland: Mountain Rescue Teams find missing walkers in the Wicklow Mountains – 291013 2000z

Two men lost in Camenabologue found after extensive search by two Mountain Rescue Teams in foul weather yesterday.

At 19:14hrs yesterday (Monday) members of the Dublin Wicklow Mountain Rescue Team and the Glen of Imaal Mountain Rescue� were tasked by An Garda S�och�na for 2 walkers who had become lost in the area of Camenabologue.

The 2 men who started their walk from Fentons in the Glen of Imaal became lost when the weather deteriorated. Mountain rescue search planners mapped the walkers route which took them over Lugnaquilla Mountain and in the direction of Table Track. Search parties were deployed onto the hill from the Glen of Imaal side by the army whilst other teams were deployed from the Baravore Car Park.

Weather conditions were extremely poor meaning no air asset could assist with the search. Visibility was down to metres and searchers were using whistle blast techniques as a means of attraction.
At approximately 22:35hrs the 2 men were located safe and well, treated for mild hypothermia and walked safely off the mountain.

UK: Glen Spean missing walkers found by Lochaber Mountain Rescue Team and RAF Rescue Helicopter – 291013 1627z

Lost walkers found after night in Lochaber mountains

 

Lochaber News// Published: 22/10/2013 17:22 – Updated: 22/10/2013 17:34

TWO missing hillwalkers�have been�traced safe and well�following a search of two Munros in the Glen Spean area of Lochaber.

A major search and rescue operation was sparked on Monday evening after police in Fort William received a request for assistance just after 6pm from the two hillwalkers, a man and a woman, who said they were in the Beinn a�Chaorainn and Beinn Teallach area, east of Roy Bridge.

A police spokesman said: “Despite a search involving RAF rescue helicopter 137 from Lossiemouth and the Lochaber Mountain Rescue Team, the hillwalkers could not be traced and the search was called off for the day due to poor conditions and low visibility on the hills.

“Searches recommenced at around first light on Tuesday, with continued assistance from RAF helicopter and Lochaber Mountain Rescue Team and at around 1.30pm the two hillwalkers were traced safe and well.” – Lochaber News

Excellent footage from Lochaber Mountain Rescue Team on a Ben Nevis shout

Not directly related to the above incident, but shows the Lochaber team in action with the aid a Royal Navy Rescue Helicopter (via Lomond Mountain Rescue Team)

(Video credit: Lochaber MRT)

Published on Oct 28, 2013

A wee bit of go pro footage from Lochaber Mountain Rescue Team high on Ben Nevis.
Music by Session A9.

UK: Two walkers flown to safety after Cairngorms rescue near Devil’s Point – 291013 1500z

�Police Scotland can confirm that they were called to assist with a mountain rescue in the central Cairngorms on Monday, October 28, at around 6.45pm, after two male walkers reported they were lost in the �Devil�s Point� area, near Cairn Toul.

A full mountain rescue deployment was immediately launched, building to eight mountain rescue teams, as well as the RAF Search and Rescue helicopter from RAF Lossiemouth.

The lost walkers were found by searchers in a very precarious location on the high plateau at around 8.15am, suffering the effects of hypothermia and exhaustion. They were then evacuated by helicopter to the Mountain Rescue Centre at Braemar.

Chief Inspector Andrew Todd, team leader of the Police Scotland (Grampian) Mountain Rescue Team, said:

�This mountain rescue incident gave us grave cause for concern as the lives of these individuals were clearly in jeopardy.

�Specially-trained and experienced mountain rescue officers worked through the night with volunteers from both the Braemar and Aberdeen mountain rescue teams. We brought in support from volunteer teams in both Tayside and the Highlands & Islands, as well as search and rescue dogs and the RAF, so that we could find the hill walkers before they succumbed to cold, wet and exhaustion.

�It was very rewarding for all those involved when we found them. They were on very steep ground and unable to move, but we were able to evacuate them safely back to Braemar. Thankfully, they did not sustain any serious injuries and were able to return home after they were checked over at the Mountain Rescue Centre.�” � Lomond Mountain Rescue Team

Other reports

Two walkers flown to safety after Cairngorms rescue near Devil’s Point

� 29 October 2013 Last updated at 14:16Z (GMT/UTC)

Two walkers were flown to safety after a major overnight search in the Cairngorms.

Braemar and Aberdeen mountain rescue teams were among those assisted by a helicopter from RAF Lossiemouth during the operation.

They faced blizzard conditions in the Devil’s Point area, near Cairn Toul.

The alarm was raised on Monday night. The two men were found in a “precarious location” at about 08:15, suffering the effects of hypothermia and exhaustion.

‘Very rewarding’

Ch Insp Andrew Todd, team leader of the Police Scotland (Grampian) Mountain Rescue Team, said: “This mountain rescue incident gave us grave cause for concern as the lives of these individuals were clearly in jeopardy.

“Specially-trained and experienced mountain rescue officers worked through the night with volunteers from both the Braemar and Aberdeen mountain rescue teams.

“We brought in support from volunteer teams in both Tayside and the Highlands and Islands, as well as search and rescue dogs and the RAF, so that we could find the hill walkers before they succumbed to cold, wet and exhaustion.”

He added: “It was very rewarding for all those involved when we found them.

“Thankfully, they did not sustain any serious injuries and were able to return home after they were checked over.”

Related

Cairngorm John’s guide to staying safe in the mountains this winter

STV By Neil Drysdale on Wednesday 23 October 2013

“For many people, the lure of tackling Scotland�s mountains in winter is irresistible.

The prospect of walking, climbing or skiing on pristine-white slopes, amid a sun-drenched vista, carries understandable attractions for all those who enjoy outdoor pursuits.

Yet, as John Allen, the man who led the Cairngorm Mountain Rescue team from 1989 to 2007, is only too aware, there are few things more foolhardy than taking to the hills without adequate precautions to ensure a terrific day out isn�t transformed into a terrifying white-out.

Allen penned his autobiography, �Cairngorm John� (Sandstone Publishing) last year and recounted his myriad experiences on the mountains, where the weather can close in on unsuspecting climbers in the space of a few moments.

And he has witnessed enough tragedies to realise that you can never tame Nature to the stage where you have eliminated risk altogether.

Indeed, the winter of 2012-13 was a pretty grim season on the slopes. In January, four climbers perished on Glencoe, a walker subsequently died in the Cairngorms, and three others lost their lives, following a devastating avalanche in February.

Allen knows as much as anybody about the ferocity of the conditions during these incidents.

He said: �It is positively Arctic. The wind can pick you up and physically throw you in the air. The visibility can be reduced by blinding snow and cloud to one or two metres and the temperature is regularly well below -18C.

�Your domestic freezer runs at that temperature. That will freeze beef or even horse meat. Most climbers simply cannot comprehend what these conditions are like.

�So, when you go to the mountains, it will never be entirely risk-free. But it should be remembered that avalanche conditions can be recognised and steps taken to avoid them.�

John Allen’s top eight tips for those on the mountains in winter.

via STV

• Do NOT go out unless you can comfortably navigate in mist or darkness using a Silva-type compass and Ordnance Survey map. Your map should be protected from the damp – a freezer bag will do nicely.
• Never go out without consulting the avalanche forecast and the weather forecast. (There are plenty of good web sites, such as http://www.stv.tv).
• Do NOT go out without your ice axe and crampons and head torch. Practice your ice axe braking techniques at the start of the winter. Replace the batteries on your head torch.
• Be prepared to alter your route or turn back. There is no shame in making a retreat. In fact, it is often the mark of the experienced mountaineer that they can make the �disciplined retreat�.
• Never rely only on your mobile phone. There are many areas where there is no signal. Keep your phone switched off to preserve batteries. Do NOT rely on an App map for your navigation or the compass on your phone. (One of our team members once said that if your phone was �dead�, the only way to attract the attention of the CMRT would be to throw the phone at them!)
• Don’t rely on Global Positioning Satellite devices. They are not always correct and, in a deep corrie or valley, you may not get three satellites to give your position.
• Good winter boots and outer shell clothing are, of course, a necessity.
• Dialling 999 should be a last resort – only used after considering all the options.

One last thought….

�At the end of the day, we can never eliminate all the risks of being in the hills.

There is the quote from many years ago which I often use: �If you go into the mountains, if you want to see what beauty they offer, you have to accept that the mountains can take as well as give.�

�These words were spoken by a woman who had lost her father, nearly 50 years ago, while he was guiding on the Tour Ronde. They are worth remembering by everyone.�

Mountain Weather Forecasts (Met Office)

Search & Rescue News (Goaty�s News)

 

China/Vietnam: Tropical Storm 29W Krosa 040900Z near 17.3N 110.5E, moving SW at 14 knots(JMA) TD (JTWC) – 041113 1330z

JMA has classified Krosa as a Tropical Storm

JTWC has classified

Krosa as a Tropical Depression

�

(Scroll down for Chinese and Vietnamese translations)

（向下滾動中國和越南的翻譯）(Di chuyển xuống cho c�c bản dịch Trung Quốc và Việt Nam)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA) 3 day track & intensity (Click image for source)

TS 1329 (KROSA)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 4 November 2013

<Analyses at 04/09 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N17�20′(17.3�)
	E110�30′(110.5�)
Direction and speed of movement	SW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure	1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more	NW220km(120NM)
	SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 04/21 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N15�20′(15.3�)
	E108�55′(108.9�)
Direction and speed of movement	SW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure	1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 05/09 UTC>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N12�40′(12.7�)
	E107�10′(107.2�)
Direction and speed of movement	SSW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure	1006hPa
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

Severe Weather Bulletin 15
Tropical cyclone warning: Typhoon �#VintaPH� (KROSA)
Issued at 4:00PM, 01 November 2013

TY �VINTA� is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility(PAR).

Location of eye/center: At 3:00 PM today, the eye of TY �VINTA� was located based on all available data at 270 km West Northwest of Laoag City (19.3�N, 118.0�E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 160 kph.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 22 kph.

Forecast Position: TY �VINTA� is expected to be at 750 km West Northwest of Laoag City or at 310 km South Southwest of Hong Kong by tomorrow afternoon.

�Estimated rainfall amount is from 5.0 � 15.0 mm per hour (moderate � heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.
�All Public Storm Warning Signals now lowered. However, sea travel is still risky over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon and over the western seaboard of Central Luzon.
�With this development, this is the final weather bulletin for this weather disturbance.

VIETNAM _NATIONAL CENTRE FOR HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING

TROPICAL STORM WARNING

TC TRACKS

TROPICAL STORM WARNING Analysis positions and Intensities Local time (GMT+7) Date Position Classification Maximum sustained wind 16 Monday, November 04, 2013 17.2 110.7 TS 65 km/hour Forecast positions and Intensities Local time (GMT+7) Date Position Classification Maximum sustained wind 16 Tuesday, November 05, 2013 13.6 106.5 Low 37 km/hour Notes for the picture: Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts Possible passing areas of TC center Past positions of TC Forecast positions of TC Past positions of TD Forecast positions of TD *The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:30 PM Monday, November 04, 2013

Satellite Imagery

Tropical depression ATND/Haiyan warning (04/11/2013)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

 

• Google Earth Graphic Overlay

 

WTPN31 PGTW 040300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (KROSA) WARNING NR 025�� �
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 29W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z — NEAR 18.6N 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 112.3E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 16.8N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 15.0N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 111.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AND
STRIPPED OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DEDUCED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE
RAPID WEAKENING TREND. TD 29W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO BELOW THE
25-KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 12 AS PERSISTENTLY HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 31W (THIRTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.� //
NNNN

Other Reports

MARITIME

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1329 KROSA (1329) 1002 HPA
AT 17.7N 111.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 15.4N 109.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 13.0N 107.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 040600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) KROSA (1329): NIL.
GALES OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
SYNOPSIS (040600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 040600UTC, TD KROSA (1329) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000
HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 60 NM OF
17.6N 111.2E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW AT ABOUT 14 KT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 050600UTC: DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
AN INTENSE NE MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALES TO THE
TAIWAN STRAIT.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER GALE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER N AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 30 NM FROM CENTRE OF KROSA (1329).
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

END

Chinese (Translated by Google)

中國/越南：熱帶風暴29W Vinta /羅莎附近17.3N 110.5E ，移動西南14海裡（ JMA ） TD （聯合颱風警報中心） – 040900Z 041113 1330z

日本氣象廳分類為熱帶風暴羅莎
聯合颱風警報中心分類
羅莎作為一個熱帶低氣壓

（向下滾動中國和越南的翻譯）

（向下滾動中國和越南的翻譯） （迪chuyển xuống町CAC潘基DICH Trung QUOC的VA越南）

（圖片： wunderground.com ）五天天氣預報（點擊圖片源）

（圖片提供： wunderground.com ）衛星（點擊圖片來源）

日本氣象廳

（圖片提供： JMA ） 3天田徑強度（點擊圖片源）
TS 1329 （羅莎）
發行於2013年11月4日， 09:40 UTC
在四月九日UTC>的<Analyses
秤 –
強度 –
中心位置N17 �20′ （ 17.3 � ）
E110 �30′ （110.5 � ）
方向和速度運動西南25KM /小時（ 14克拉）
中央壓力1004hPa
附近的中心18M / s的最大風速（ 35克拉）
最大陣風線速度25m / s的（ 50克拉）
區的風30克拉或更多NW220km （ 120NM ）
SE170km （ 90NM ）
4月21日UTC> <Forecast
強度 –
概率圈的中心位置N15 �20′ （ 15.3 � ）
E108 �55′ （108.9 � ）
方向和速度運動西南25KM /小時（ 14克拉）
中央壓力1002hPa
附近的中心18M / s的最大風速（ 35克拉）
最大陣風線速度25m / s的（ 50克拉）
半徑概率圓90公里（ 50NM ）
為五月九日UTC>的<Forecast
強度 –
TD
中心位置的概率圓N12 �40′ （ 12.7 � ）
E107� 10 ‘ （107.2 � ）
方向和速度運動西南25KM /小時（ 14克拉）
中央壓力1006hPa
半徑概率圓160公里（ 85NM ）

單位：
1KT （結） = 1.852公里每小時= 0.5144米/秒
1NM海裡= 1.852公里

PAGASA外輪理貨

菲律賓大氣，地球物理和天文服務管理（ PAGASA -外輪理貨）

菲律賓奎松市，

惡劣天氣通報15
熱帶氣旋警告：颱風的�＃ VintaPH � （羅莎）
在2013年11月1日下午4:00，發行

TY � VINTA �現在是菲律賓地區外責任（ PAR ） 。

眼睛/中心的位置：今日下午3:00 ，眼TY � VINTA �位於拉瓦格市西北270公里西（ 19.3 � N ， 118.0 � E ）的所有可用數據的基礎上的。

強度：最大持續風速靠近市中心和160公里，陣風可達每小時130公里。

機芯：預測西北22公里向西移動。

預測位置： TY的� VINTA �明天下午，預計將在750公里的西北西的拉奧格或在香港西南310公里南。

�預計降雨量為5.0 – 15.0毫米每小時（中度 – 重度）颱風直徑500公里內。
�所有公共風暴警告信號，現在降低。然而，海上旅遊仍是有風險的北呂宋北部和西部沿海地帶，並在呂宋島中部的西部海岸。
這方面的發展，這是最後的天氣，這樣的天氣干擾公報。

香港天文台
：越南_NATIONAL水文氣象預報中心
熱帶風暴警報
TC軌道

熱帶風暴警報

分析位置和強度

當地時間（GMT +7 ）

日

位置

分類

最大持續風力
16日（星期一） ， 11月04 ， 2013 17.2 110.7 TS 65公里/小時

預測的位置和強度

當地時間（GMT +7 ）

日

位置

分類

最大持續風力
16 ， 2013年11月5日（週二） 13.6 106.5低37公里/小時
圖片說明：
概率領域風力大於6博福特
概率擰區域大於10博福特
颱風中心可能通過區域
過去位置的TC
預測位置的TC
過去位置的TD
預測位置TD
*未來的預測軌跡地圖將發行， 2013年11月4日（星期一）下午9:30
衛星影像

熱帶的抑鬱ATND /海鹽警告（ 04/11/2013 ）
聯合颱風警報中心（ JTWC ）

（圖片提供：聯合颱風警報中心） TC警告圖形（點擊圖片來源）

谷歌地球圖形疊加

WTPN31 PGTW 040300

，MSGID / GENADMIN的的/合營號颱風� WRNCEN �珍珠港HI / /
的SUBJ /熱帶氣旋警告/ /
RMKS /
1。熱帶低氣壓29W （羅莎）警告NR 025
降級熱帶風暴29W
03個活躍的熱帶氣旋NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘平均最大持續風速
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
—
警告位置：
040000Z —近18.6N 112.3E
運動過去六小時 – 230度11 KTS
位置精確到010海裡內
基於位置的組合中心
衛星和雷達
目前風分佈：
最大持續風速 – 025 KT ，陣風035 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在水消散
重複POSIT ： 18.6N 112.3E
—
預測：
12小時，有效的：
041200Z — 16.8N 110.3E
最大持續風速 – 020 KT ，陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在水消耗
矢量24 HR POSIT ： 225度/ 13 KTS
—
24小時，有效的：
050000Z — 15.0N 108.4E
最大持續風速 – 020 KT ，陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消耗
—
備註：
18.1N 111.8E 040300Z位置附近。
熱帶低壓（ TD ） 29W （羅莎） ，位於約246 nm
西南偏南香港，以11節的速度向西南跟踪
在過去的六個小時。動畫多光譜衛星圖像
低層環流中心已成為充分暴露
剝奪任何重大對流。最初的立場是基於
上述動畫與高可信度。初始強度
推導出從德沃夏克估計所有機構，反映了
迅速減弱的趨勢。 TD 29W以下預期減弱
持續高垂直TAU 12 25結警告閾值
風切變繼續侵蝕系統。這是最後的警告
這個系統按聯合颱風WRNCEN的珍珠港HI 。本
系統將密切監察再生的跡象。最大
AT 040000Z的有效波高為18英尺。參考熱帶
抑鬱30W （三十）警告（ WTPN32 PGTW ）六小時
更新。符號熱帶風暴31W （ THIRTYONE ）的警告（ WTPN33
PGTW ）六小時更新。 / /
分
其他報告
海事

METAREA11 / / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN的0600

WTJP21 RJTD 040600
警告040600 。
警告有效050600 。
警告6小時更新一次。
烈風警告。
熱帶風暴羅莎（1329 ）1002 1329 HPA
AT 17.7N 111.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA移動西南12海裡。
位置公允。
中心附近最大風35海裡。
超過30個結風半徑120英里西北半圓和90
MILES ELSEWHERE 。
預測位置在50英里半徑15.4N 109.5E 041800UTC
70 ％的概率圓。
MAX WINDS 1002百帕，中心附近35海裡。
預測位置在85英里半徑13.0N 107.6E 050600UTC
70 ％的概率圓。
1006百帕。
熱帶低氣壓BECOMING 。

日本氣象廳。
METAREA11 / / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA的0600

WWHK82 VHHH 040600
40:1:31:11:01:00
香港氣象服務提供了以下
警告/信息為南中國南海。
警告
熱帶低壓（ TD ）羅莎（1329 ）：無。
台灣海峽的GALES 。
內容簡介（ 040600UTC ）及24小時預報
AT 040600UTC ， TD羅莎（ 1329） ，中心氣壓1000
HPA和60海裡內為中心最大風速25 KT
17.6N 111.2E ，並預測要移動西南約14克拉
在接下來的24小時內。
預測位置AT 050600UTC ： ，消散土地。
一股強烈東北季風有望帶來GALES ，到
台灣海峽。
大湧浪/ SEAS
SEAS 6米以上烈風警告區。
SWELL NE 3 M對N和中部地區的南海。
雷暴/惡劣天氣
（ SQ ）頻繁狂風驟雨（ SH ）和雷暴
（TS）的中心羅莎（1329 ） 30海裡範圍內。
散SQ sh和TS在菲律賓附近海域。
在南部一部分的南隔離SQ SH和TS
中國海。
海霧/低能見度
能見度向下SQ M IN SH和TS 500 。

完

Vietnamese (Translated by Google)

Trung Quốc / Việt Nam : cơn bão nhiệt �ới 29W Vinta / Krosa 040900Z gần 17.3N 110.5E , di chuyển SW 14 hải l� ( JMA ) TD ( JTWC ) – 041.113 1330z

JMA �ã ph�n loại Krosa như một cơn bão nhiệt �ới
JTWC �ã ph�n loại
Krosa như một �p thấp nhiệt �ới

( Di chuyển xuống cho c�c bản dịch Trung Quốc và Việt Nam )

(向下 滚动 中国 和 越南 的 翻译) ( ​​Move Down for Translation Trung Quốc and Việt Nam)

(Ảnh: wunderground.com ) 5 ngày Dự b�o ( Click vào hình �ể xem hình nguồn )

(Ảnh: wunderground.com ) truyền hình vệ tinh ( Click vào hình �ể xem hình nguồn )

Cơ quan Kh� tượng Nhật Bản

(Ảnh: JMA ) 3 ngày theo dõi và cường �ộ ( Click vào hình �ể xem hình nguồn )
TS 1329 ( KROSA )
Ban hành l�c 09:40 UTC , 04 Th�ng 11 2013
<Analyses Tại 09/04 UTC>
quy m� –
cường �ộ –
Vị tr� trung t�m N17 � 20 ‘ ( 17,3 � )
E110 � 30 ‘ ( 110,5 � )
Hướng và tốc �ộ của phong trào T�y 25km / h ( 14kt )
1004hPa �p lực trung ương
Tốc �ộ gi� tối �a gần trung t�m 18m / s ( 35kt )
Tốc �ộ tối �a cơn gi� 25m / s ( 50kt )
Diện t�ch gi� 30kt hoặc hơn NW220km ( 120NM )
SE170km ( 90nm )
<Forecast Cho 21/4 UTC>
cường �ộ –
Vị tr� trung t�m của vòng tròn x�c suất N15 � 20 ‘ ( 15,3 � )
E108 � 55 ‘ ( 108,9 � )
Hướng và tốc �ộ của phong trào T�y 25km / h ( 14kt )
1002hPa �p lực trung ương
Tốc �ộ gi� tối �a gần trung t�m 18m / s ( 35kt )
Tốc �ộ tối �a cơn gi� 25m / s ( 50kt )
B�n k�nh của vòng tròn x�c suất 90 km ( 50nm )
<Forecast Cho 09/05 UTC>
cường �ộ –
TD
Vị tr� trung t�m của vòng tròn x�c suất N12 � 40 ‘ ( 12,7 � )
E107 � 10 ‘ ( 107,2 � )
Hướng và tốc �ộ của phong trào T�y Nam 25 km / h ( 14kt )
1006hPa �p lực trung ương
B�n k�nh của vòng tròn x�c suất 160km ( 85NM )

�ơn vị t�nh:
1KT ( h�n ) = 1,852 km / h = 0,5144 m / s
1nm ( hải l� ) = 1,852 km

Pagasa – Sở KHCN

Philippines kh� quyển, �ịa vật l� và thiên v�n Dịch vụ Quản trị ( Pagasa – Sở KHCN )

Quezon City, Philippines

Thời tiết Bulletin nghiêm trọng 15
Nhiệt �ới cảnh b�o cơn bão : bão ” # VintaPH ” ( KROSA )
Ban hành l�c 4:00 PM , ngày 01 Th�ng 11 n�m 2013

TY ” Vinta ” b�y giờ bên ngoài khu vực của Philippines Tr�ch nhiệm ( cải c�ch hành ch�nh ) .

Vị tr� của mắt / trung t�m : Tại 03:00 ngày h�m nay, mắt của TY ” Vinta ” �ược �ặt dựa trên tất cả c�c dữ liệu c� sẵn tại 270 km T�y T�y Bắc của thành phố Laoag ( 19.3 � N , 118,0 � E ) .

Sức mạnh: sức gi� tối �a 130 KPH gần trung t�m và gustiness lên �ến 160 KPH .

Phong trào: Dự b�o �ến di chuyển T�y T�y Bắc tại 22 KPH .

Dự b�o Chức vụ: TY ” Vinta ” dự kiến ​​sẽ c� mặt tại 750 km T�y T�y Bắc của thành phố Laoag hoặc 310 km Nam T�y Nam của Hồng K�ng vào chiều ngày mai .

� lượng mưa dự kiến ​​là 5,0-15,0 mm mỗi giờ ( trung bình – nặng ) trong �ường k�nh 500 km của bão .
� Tất cả c�c hồ bão t�n hiệu cảnh b�o tại hạ xuống. Tuy nhiên , du lịch biển vẫn còn nhiều rủi ro hơn c�c seaboards ph�a bắc và ph�a t�y của Bắc Luzon và trên bờ biển ph�a t�y của miền Trung Luzon .
� Với sự ph�t triển này, ��y là bản tin thời tiết cuối cùng cho x�o trộn thời tiết này .

�ài quan s�t Hồng K�ng
VIỆT NAM _NATIONAL TRUNG T�M THỦY KH� TƯỢNG DỰ �O�N
Cơn bão nhiệt �ới CẢNH B�O
TC TRACKS

Cơn bão nhiệt �ới CẢNH B�O

Ph�n t�ch vị tr� và cường �ộ

Giờ �ịa phương (GMT +7)

ngày

Chức vụ

ph�n loại

Gi� duy trì tối �a
16 Thứ hai 4 Th�ng 11, 2013 17.2 110.7 TS 65 km / giờ

Vị tr� và cường �ộ dự b�o

Giờ �ịa phương (GMT +7)

ngày

Chức vụ

ph�n loại

Gi� duy trì tối �a
16 Thứ ba 5 Th�ng 11, n�m 2013 13,6 106,5 Thấp nhất 37 km / giờ
Ghi ch� cho hình ảnh :
Khu vực x�c suất gi� lớn hơn 6 Beauforts
Khu vực x�c suất gi� lớn hơn 10 Beauforts
Khu vực c� thể �i qua c�c trung t�m TC
Vị tr� trước ��y của TC
Vị tr� dự b�o của TC
Vị tr� trước ��y của TD
Vị tr� dự b�o của TD
* C�c Bản tin tiếp theo �ược ph�t vào 09:30 thứ Hai 4 th�ng 11, n�m 2013
C�c hình ảnh vệ tinh

Nhiệt �ới trầm cảm ATND / Haiyan cảnh b�o ( 2013/04/11 )
Trung t�m cảnh b�o bão chung ( JTWC )

(Ảnh: JTWC ) TC Cảnh b�o �ồ họa ( Nhấn vào ảnh �ể nguồn )

Google Earth �ồ họa Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 040.300

MSGID / GENADMIN / PHẦN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE CẢNH B�O / /
RMKS /
1 . Nhiệt �ới suy tho�i 29W ( KROSA ) Ch� � NR 025
Hạ cấp từ 29W cơn bão nhiệt �ới
03 cơn bão nhiệt �ới hoạt �ộng trong NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SINH Gi� DỰA VÀO TRUNG BÌNH MỘT PH�T
WIND b�n k�nh c� hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
—
Ch� � VỊ TR� :
040000Z — 18.6N 112.3E NEAR
CHUYỂN QUA S�U GIỜ – 230 �ộ tại 11 KTS
Vị tr� ch�nh x�c �ể trong vòng 010 NM
VỊ TR� DỰA VÀO TRUNG T�M nằm một trong số c�c
Vệ tinh và radar
HIỆN PH�N PHỐI WIND :
MAX SINH Gi� – 025 KT , Cơn 035 KT
WIND b�n k�nh c� hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
Tiêu tan AS bão nhiệt �ới YẾU VỀ NƯỚC
Lặp lại thừa nhận : 18.6N 112.3E
—
DỰ B�O :
12 HRS, VALID AT :
041200Z — 16.8N 110.3E
MAX SINH Gi� – 020 KT , Cơn 030 KT
WIND b�n k�nh c� hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
�n chơi như bão nhiệt �ới YẾU VỀ NƯỚC
VECTOR TO 24 nh�n sự thừa nhận : 225 DEG / 13 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT :
050000Z — 15.0N 108.4E
MAX SINH Gi� – 020 KT , Cơn 030 KT
WIND b�n k�nh c� hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
�n chơi như bão nhiệt �ới YẾU VỀ �ẤT
—
GHI CH� :
VỊ TR� 040300Z NEAR 111.8E 18.1N .
Nhiệt �ới trầm cảm ( TD ) 29W ( KROSA ) , nằm ​​khoảng 246 NM
SOUTH -t�y nam của Hong Kong , �ã theo dõi miền t�y nam AT 11 KNOTS
Trong qu� khứ s�u giờ. ANIMATED �a phổ VỆ TINH ẢNH
Cho thấy mức �ộ thấp LƯU TRUNG T�M �à TRỞ THÀNH �ầy �ủ tiếp x�c và
Tước BẤT CỨ �ỐI LƯU YẾU . VỊ TR� �ẦU DỰA
ON THE ANIMATION TRÊN VỚI CAO TỰ TIN . Cường �ộ ban �ầu là
R�t ra từ Dvorak dự to�n từ c�c cơ quan và phản �nh
RAPID suy yếu TREND . TD 29W sẽ làm suy yếu xuống dưới
25 – n�t, nơ Ch� � ngưỡng bởi TÀU 12 AS cao liên tục �ỨNG
Wind Shear quốc tiếp tục làm x�i mòn hệ thống . ��Y LÀ CẢNH B�O CUỐI CÙNG
Trên hệ thống này CỦA PHẦN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI . THE
Hệ thống sẽ �ược chặt chẽ theo dõi c�c dấu hiệu t�i sinh. TỐI �A
YẾU WAVE CAO AT 040000Z IS 18 Bàn ch�n . THAM KHẢO nhiệt �ới
Trầm cảm 30W ( ba mươi ) CẢNH B�O ( WTPN32 PGTW ) cho Six – GIỜ
CẬP NHẬT. THAM KHẢO cơn bão nhiệt �ới 31W ( THIRTYONE ) CẢNH B�O ( WTPN33
PGTW ) CẬP NHẬT CHO Six – GIỜ . / /
NNNN
b�o c�o kh�c
HÀNG HẢI

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 040.600
CẢNH B�O 040.600 .
CẢNH B�O GI� TRỊ 050.600 .
Cảnh b�o �ược cập nhật mỗi 6 giờ.
GALE Ch� � .
TROPICAL STORM 1329 KROSA ( 1329) 1002 HPA
AT 17.7N 111.4E BIỂN ��NG T�Y NAM CHUYỂN 12 hải l�.
VỊ TR� C�NG BẰNG .
MAX gi� 35 KNOTS gần trung t�m .
RADIUS HƠN 30 Gi� n�t, nơ 120 dặm NORTHWEST hình b�n nguyệt và 90
Dặm ghi ở nơi kh�c .
DỰ B�O CHO VỊ TR� 041800UTC AT 15.4N 109.5E VỚI 50 dặm RADIUS
HÀNH 70 PHẦN TR�M X�C SUẤT CIRCLE .
1002 HPA , MAX Gi� 35 KNOTS gần trung t�m .
DỰ B�O CHO VỊ TR� 050600UTC AT 13.0N 107.6E VỚI 85 dặm RADIUS
HÀNH 70 PHẦN TR�M X�C SUẤT CIRCLE .
1006 HPA .
TRỞ THÀNH �p thấp nhiệt �ới .

Nhật Bản KH� TƯỢNG CƠ QUAN . =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 040.600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG KH� TƯỢNG DỊCH VỤ CUNG CẤP SAU
CẢNH B�O / TH�NG TIN VỀ BIỂN ��NG .
CẢNH B�O
Nhiệt �ới trầm cảm ( TD ) KROSA ( 1329) : NIL .
Gales VỀ eo biển �ài Loan .
T�M TẮT ( 040600UTC ) VÀ DỰ B�O 24 GIỜ
AT 040600UTC , TD KROSA ( 1329) VỚI �P LỰC TRUNG 1000
HPA VÀ TỐI �A Gi� 25 KT �ược tập trung TRONG 60 NM HÀNH
111.2E 17.6N và �ược dự b�o MOVE SW AT Giới thiệu về 14 KT CHO
TỚI 24 GIỜ .
DỰ B�O VỊ TR� AT 050600UTC : tiêu tan VỀ �ẤT .
AN INTENSE Bắc gi� mùa hứa hẹn mang �ến Gales �ẾN
Eo biển �ài Loan .
Sưng lên / CAO SEAS YẾU
SEAS 6 M VỀ GALE KHU VỰC CẢNH B�O .
Sưng lên NE 3 M VỀ N và c�c bộ phận TRUNG T�M Biển ��ng.
Sấm s�t / thời tiết khắc nghiệt
THƯỜNG nặng có gió th�̉i từng cơn (SQ ) Rào ( SH ) và d�ng
( TS ) trong vòng 30 NM TỪ TRUNG T�M KROSA ( 1329) .
Rải r�c SQ SH và TS trên biển gần Philippines .
C� lập SQ SH và TS VỀ PHẦN MIỀN NAM CỦA NAM
BIỂN ��NG .
SEA FOG / TẦM NHÌN GIẢM
TẦM NHÌN xuống 500 M TRÊN SQ SH và TS .

END

UK: Search for missing boy, 14, at West Beach, Newhaven called off – 271013 2200z

Lifeboat in foreground, helicopter in distance searching Seaford Bay for 14 yr old boy (Photo credit: @nataliebbc)

SOLENT COASTGUARD SEARCH FOR MISSING BOY

Sunday, 27 October 2013

Solent Coastguard are searching for a missing boy who was last seen playing in the surf at West Beach, Newhaven approximately 10 meters offshore.

Solent Coastguard was alerted to the missing boy via 999 calls and the local National Coast watch Institution. Coastguard Rescue Teams from Newhaven and Burling Gap are searching the area. Solent Coastguard requested the Newhaven RNLI lifeboat to the scene, a Coastguard Rescue helicopter is also searching for the boy.

The search conditions on scene are very difficult for the rescue teams involved, with rough seas and poor visibility.

Solent Coastguard Watch Manager, Steve Mann said

�This weekend we have been expecting hurricane-force winds and we are urging people to take extra care.The crashing waves are spectacular to watch but also extremely dangerous. HM Coastguard�s advice is simple: don�t take risks. But if you do get into difficulty, or spot someone who might be in trouble, call 999 and ask for the Coastguard.� � MCA

Other Reports

Breaking news Huge search for boy, 14, who is missing off beach in Newhaven after playing in the waves

5:25pm Sunday 27th October 2013 in News By Anna Roberts and Ben James

A �Webcam image of the rescue operation at Newhaven. Click on the link at the bottom of the story to view the live webcam.

A 14-year-old boy is feared to have drowned after getting caught up in rough seas off Newhaven.

The local boy, who has not been named, was swimming with a friend at 4.15pm today when he disappeared under the waves.

A full search was immediately launched with police, coastguards and paramedics immediately attending the scene.

The friend was not swept off and is safe.

A Sussex Police spokesman told The Argus at 5pm: �Police and coastguard are currently in West Beach, Newhaven, looking for a 14-year-old local boy who drifted off when he was swimming with a friend at 4.15pm.

�The search is ongoing.�

He urged people against swimming as strong winds were predicted and said the police would release more information as they had it.

He said:��This is a very distressing incident and everything possible is being done to try to find the boy.�

Meanwhile all agencies remind people of the dangers of being at seashores in adverse weather, especially in view of the approaching severe weather conditions overnight. The advice is straightforward � stay clear.

A Newhaven resident, who was at the beach, said: �I saw lads playing chicken by the harbour arm where there were really high waves and one went in.�

Discussing the incident on Facebook, a woman said: �I heard a little boy has been swept out to sea.�

Another person said: �It�s big whatever it is we�ve just been down and the road is closed. Eight or nine police cars and helicopter out.�

Other people said lifeboat workers on roads were being lowered into the sea.

The Solent Coastguard says�search conditions on scene are very difficult for the rescue teams involved, with rough seas and poor visibility.

Watch Manager, Steve Mann said: �This weekend we have been expecting hurricane-force winds and we are urging people to take extra care.

�The crashing waves are spectacular to watch but also extremely dangerous. HM Coastguard�s advice is simple: don�t take risks.

�But if you do get into difficulty, or spot someone who might be in trouble, call 999 and ask for the Coastguard.�

Update 1850Z:

Boy swept out to sea at Newhaven

27 October 2013

At 4.15pm on Sunday 27 October emergency services were called to West Beach at Newhaven after a 14-year old local boy had been swept away while swimming at the shore with friends. An immediate search was begun involving police, Coastguard and the in-shore lifeboat.

The friends were not swept off and are safe.

A Sussex Police spokesman said: �this is a very distressing incident and everything possible is being done to try to find the boy.�

Meanwhile all agencies remind people of the dangers of being at seashores in adverse weather, especially in view of the approaching severe weather conditions overnight. The advice is straightforward � stay clear.

Chief Inspector Katy Woolford added; �Both we and the Coastguard have received reports during the afternoon of people being dangerously near water edge in places as far apart as Seaford and Brighton. Please, at least until the imminent severe weather abates, stay clear of the seashore for your own safety, and in order to help the emergency services to be available to deal with other incidents.�

Newhaven lifeboat search for teenager washed into sea

(Video credit:Newhaven Lifeboat/RNLI)

Published on Oct 27, 2013

Newhaven lifeboat continues (G: now called off) to search for a missing teenager who was washed into the sea west of the main breakwater at approximately 4:20 pm today.

The lifeboat is being assisted by local Coastguard teams on the beach and Coastguard helicopter Rescue 104.

The lifeboat is battling a large backwash from the West Arm in what are extremely tough conditions

Update 2200Z: RNLI Search called off – Sky News

All teams searching off Newhaven have now been stood down by HM Coastguard, our thoughts go to the boys family and friends at this sad time

� Newhaven Lifeboat (@NewhavenRNLI) October 27, 2013

 

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 2 for NW France, S Germany, Czechia, N Switzerland and N Austria mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes. Valid until 281013 06:00 UTC – 271013 1000z

Storm Forecast

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 27 Oct 2013 06:00 to Mon 28 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 Oct 2013 05:14
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for northeastern France, southern Germany, Czechia, northern Switzerland and northern Austria mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic, Poland, as well as Ireland, mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for western France and southern UK for severe convective gust and tornado chances after midnight.

SYNOPSIS

A large depression centered west of Scotland has transported a broad plume of relatively warm low level air deep into Europe. A sharp shortwave trough dramatically visible in IPV fields is racing from western France to eastern Poland during the period. Together with a northwesterly jet axis left exit region, it forces rising air with steepening lapse rates between central France and the Netherlands in the morning, which shifts into Germany during the afternoon and Czechia/Poland in the evening. Thedynamic tropopause(PV)/jet axis intersection region moves just north of the Alps. There is a strong wind field with a corridor over southern Germany with >30 m/s winds in the lowest kilometers.
Late in the night, a side disturbance of the main low arrives in the English Channel region with signs of rapid cyclogenesis en-route to Denmark, producing gale conditions on Monday.

DISCUSSION

…Ireland…

In the first 6 hours of the period, convection and conditions of strong low-level winds and shear 15-20 m/s are present. The jetstream passes over the southern half of Ireland. Expect some convective gusts greater than 25 m/s. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well.

…western France, southern UK…

This region will be affected by two disturbances in 24 hours. At 06Z, unstable air under the influence of the shortwave trough is present as well as 25 m/s mean winds in the low levels, and some 20 m/s 0-1 km shear. Mesoscale convective development is not yet expected to begin, but these conditions combined with low LCL heights can lead to tornadoes, aside from severe wind gusts.
After 00/03Z, the cold front of the second low comes in. It seems to become somewhat convectively active, likely as a forced convective line (there is little CAPE and EL at only -15�), this time with 30-40 m/s mean winds in the low levels over NW France capable of producing damaging gusts at the ground. The front bends back over the southern UK with less strong wind field but enhanced shear and instability sufficient for a tornado or two. The 00Z GFS run predicts the low to take a much more northerly and faster course with more stable conditions than the 18Z run.

…northeastern France to southwestern Poland…

Synoptic and mesoscale lifting appears to increase in tyhe GFS model over northern France and enhance CAPE to about 200 J/kg. A linear PV intrusion is likely to shape the convection as a line, although WRF models suggest more cellular/short line segment modes instead. Indeed even in the GFS model there is a large region of deep convergence but no sharp line at the surface. The jet exit region affects most directly the zone immediately north of the Alps. In entire southern Germany more than 20 m/s of 0-1 km shear should exist, which aids tornadogenesis (with >250 m²/s² of 0-3 km SREH also predicted) and bow echoes with strong to very strong gusts during convective storms. The 00Z GFS run predicts the same timing as the 18Z run but with the PV intrusion displaced slightly to the north, as well as more positive rather than negative tilt.

UK: Reports of tornado in Cragg Vale, West Yorkshire (Sat AM) – 271013 0010z (GMT/UTC)

People in Cragg Vale have been likening yesterday�s severe weather to a ‘mini tornado’.

(Photo: halifaxcourier) Felled trees in Cragg Vale as a tornado hit the valley.

(G: NB – There is no such thing as a mini tornado, it is either a tornado or not a tornado)

Roads are reportedly still shut this morning (Saturday) following the freak weather – which saw strong winds and floods hit locations across Calderdale.

Cyclists are currently being warned to approach the popular Cragg Vale route with care – after trees fell down and the road was filled with debris.

A clean up of the area is reportedly underway. It’s believed Cragg Vale is closed just above the 5km mark due to a clearing of trees which came down last night (Friday).

The goings on have sparked a web frenzy, with readers venting on twitter and facebook over the weather.

Saturday, 26 October, 2013 at 14:03 (02:03 PM) UTC RSOE

On Twitter: Western MA Wx ‏(@WMassWx): Another tornado strikes the U.K. on the eastern side of a powerful low in the Northern Atlantic. 964mb to be exact

(Image: Western MA Wx ‏(@WMassWx))

 

Japan: Earthquake of mag 7.1 strikes off Japan triggering small tsunami. Fukushima nuclear plant undamaged – 251013 2015z

7.1 Mag Earthquake off the east coast Honshu, Japan

JMA confirms� 7.1 Mag Earthquake Information (Information on seismic intensity at each site)
Issued at 03:13 JST 26 Oct 2013

Occurred at (JST) Latitude
(degree) Longitude
(degree) Depth Magnitude Region Name
02:10 JST 26 Oct 2013 37.2N 144.6E 10 km 7.1 Fukushima-ken Oki

More here: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/

All Tsunami Advisories have been cancelled.

No reports of damage after 7.3 magnitude earthquake hits Japan | Fox News (link)

An earthquake of magnitude 7.3 struck Saturday morning off Japan’s east coast, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Japan’s emergency agencies declared a tsunami warning for the region that includes the crippled Fukushima nuclear site.

 

Other Reports

Japan Hit By 7.3-Magnitude Earthquake Off Fukushima Prefecture Coast, Tsunami Advisory Issued

(Video credit: BreakingNews!!!)

Published on Oct 25, 2013

TOKYO — TOKYO (AP) — An earthquake of magnitude 7.3 struck Saturday morning off Japan’s east coast, near the crippled Fukushima nuclear site, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Japan’s emergency agencies declared a tsunami warning for the area.

The quake hit at 3:10 a.m. Saturday Tokyo time (1310 GMT), the USGS said.

The tremor was felt in Tokyo, some 300 miles (480 kilometers) away.

Japan’s Meteorological Agency raised the tsunami warning for the area of Honshu. But the U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center did not post warnings for the rest of the Pacific.

 

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 1 for Portugal, W Spain, Bay of Biscay, & SW British Isles mainly for tornadoes and excessive rain valid until to 251013 0600Z.- 241013 1425Z

Storm Forecast

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 24 Oct 2013 06:00 to Fri 25 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 23 Oct 2013 22:44
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for Portugal, western Spain, Bay of Biscay, and south-western British Isles mainly for tornadoes and excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

South-westerly flow continues across Europe given rather weak geopotential across the Atlantic Ocean. An embedded short-wave trough will move from southern Scandinavia to the Baltic States, affecting Germany and even the Adriatic Sea with its trough axis. Cold air will spread into central Europe in the wake of this trough. From the west, a weak ridge will follow that affects especially France during the daytime. A new Atlantic trough will enter western Europe until the end of the period.

Ahead of the central European short-wave trough, a tongue of moist and locally unstable air spreads into eastern Europe. Low-level moisture will also increase across western Europe. Steep lapse rates are expected from the Mediterranean to the central Balkans. The central European trough will provide DCVA across the Mediterranean and northern/eastern Europe, whereas warm air advection will increase across Iberia and France late in the period.

DISCUSSION

Portugal and western Spain, Bay of Biscay, south-western British Isles

Ahead of the new approaching trough, another tongue of warm subtropical air spreads into western Europe. Low-level moisture will reach more than 10 g/kg. Whereas rather weak lift is expected near the ridge axis from eastern Spain to southern France, a couple of vort-maxima will travel north-east from Portugal across the Bay of Biscay into south-western Ireland and England. Late in the period, a strong 30 m/s mid-level jet streak will spread across the Bay of Biscay.

Given this strong DCVA and WAA over the region, large ageostrophic flow and low-level convergence is expected. Excessive rain seems to be quite likely from Portugal into the British Isles. In the wake of the leading warm front, lapse rates will increase due to lift along the cyclonically-sheared flank of the jet, and CAPE is forecast.

Current thinking is that thunderstorms will first affect Portugal and will spread north-east, reaching south-west England at the end of the period. Storms will be capable of producing excessive rain. Tornadoes will be an additional threat due to the strong low-level vertical wind shear and low LCL heights. A strong tornado is not ruled out. Tornado potential is expected to spread into the central British Isles on Friday (after the forecast period).

North Mediterranean to southern Austria and Slovakia

The central European trough will pass by leaving a cold front that becomes quasi-stationary at the flank of the south-east European ridge. To the south of the front, a warm and well-mixed airmass with steep lapse rates will affect the Balkans. Along the frontal boundary, a tongue of rich low-level moisture will spread into eastern Europe with 0-1 km mixing ratio exceeding 9 g/kg from northern Italy to Hungary and Slovakia. This moisture will partly overlap with the good lapse rates, resulting in CAPE.

Main uncertainty is the low-level buoyancy due to diurnal heating. The highest potential of storms clearly exists across the Mediterranean Sea in the morning hours, and numerous storms are expected to go on from the Ligurian Sea to the northern Adriatic. Due to the slowly eastward movement of the upper trough, storms will gradually spread south-east into the Tyrrhenian Sea and central Adriatic. Some storms may also evolve across northern and central Italy in the noon/afternoon hours, but low-level stable air masses will limit the potential over most places.

The storms that form across southern Europe will be affected by weak shear. Therefore, well organized storms are not forecast. However, an isolated excessive rain event or a waterspout is not ruled out.

Further north-east, storms are expected to develop along the frontal boundary in the noon and afternoon hours. Main limiting factor will be again the weak low-level buoyancy and CIN may be too large for initiation. Storms that my form can become severe given 15 to 20 m/s 0-3 km vertical wind shear. Especially Mesocyclones may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. The potential decreases from Austria to Slovakia, but a few events are expected. Storms will rapidly weaken after sunset.

Related:

Meteoalarm – severe weather warnings for Europe

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS � Updated 24 Oct 2013�1345z

Volcanic eruptions/activity in Indonesia, Peru and Russia, thousands evacuated – 241013 1200z

Indonesia

Mount Sinabung Volcano N 3� 10.267, E 98� 23.417

A volcano in western Indonesia erupted on Thursday, unleashing a column of dark volcanic material high into the air weeks after villagers were returning home from an earlier eruption, officials said.

The explosion at Mount Sinabung, located in North Sumatra province, shot black ash 3 kilometers (nearly 2 miles) into the air, but there were no reports of injuries or damage, said National Mitigation Agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho. He said villages, farms and trees around the 2,600-meter (8,530-foot) -high rumbling volcano were covered in thick gray ash, prompting authorities to evacuate more than 3,300 people. Most were from two villages within 3 kilometers (nearly 2 miles) of the mountain in Karo district. No lava or debris spewed from the volcano, and nearby towns and villages were not in danger, but authorities warned tourists to stay away from the danger zone located 1.5 kilometers (1 mile) from the crater, Nugroho said. Last month, more than 15,000 people were forced to flee when the volcano rumbled to life after being dormant for three years, belching ash and smoke and igniting fires on its slopes. The volcano’s last major eruption in August 2010 killed two people and forced 30,000 others to flee. It caught many scientists off guard because it had been quiet for four centuries. Mount Sinabung is among more than 120 active volcanoes in Indonesia, which is prone to seismic upheaval due to its location on the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” an arc of volcanos and fault lines encircling the Pacific Basin.

Thursday, 24 October, 2013 at 10:20 (10:20 AM) UTC RSOE

(Video credit:Riza Kayikci ) Published on Oct 23, 2013 Volcano Eruption Indonesia

Peru

Ubinas Volcano S 16� 21.300, W 70� 54.180

The Peruvian Geophysics Institute (IGP) reports that Ubinas Volcano in Moquegua has once again shown signs of activity.

In early September, Ubinas registered a number of small explosions that initially cause alarm in the local population. However, as a column of potentially dangerous silica ash rose as high as two kilometers into the sky, authorities were forced to declare a State of Emergency in the area. The volcano had been quiet for several weeks, but now it has once again released smoke and ash into the air. Andina news agency reports that the incident occurred on the afternoon of Oct. 22, and lasted approximately two minutes. Equipment used by IGP scientists registered movement inside of the volcano before it released the cloud of smoke and ash. However, the incident is not being described as an �eruption,� because it lacked the explosive force necessary to categorize it as such. Andina reports that Ubinas Volcano is the most active volcano in Peru, having registered 24 eruptions over five centuries. Prior to the explosions in early September, the volcano had been dormant since 2009. The silica ash released by the volcano in September caused locals to experience medical problems such as headaches, stomach pain, and vomiting.

Thursday, 24 October, 2013 at 04:00 (04:00 AM) UTC RSOE

Russia

Zhupanovsky Volcano N 53� 35.300, E 159� 8.900

A new explosive eruption started yesterday night (23 Oct). An ash plume was detected drifting at an estimated 16,000 ft (5 km) altitude and drifting ESE.

At least 1 mm of ash have been deposited in the Nalychevo valley, a natural park between Zhupanovsky and Avachinsky volcanoes. Zhupanovsky volcano lies about 70 km northeast of the capital of Kamchatka, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, and had its last eruption in 1959. It is a complex volcano composed of several overlapping cones aligned on a roughly east-west oriented axis. The new eruption comes from the same vent that has been also the site of all known historical eruptions, located west of the highest point of the volcanic massif.

Thursday, 24 October, 2013 at 10:23 (10:23 AM) UTC RSOE

Related:

Types of volcanic eruptions – Wikipedia

Dozens out on bail after Iran raid on ‘homosexuals,’ ‘satanists’

76 CRIMES

A court in Iran has released “dozens of people” on bail after their arrest Oct. 8 on charges related to “homosexuality and satanism,” according to an LGBT rights organization in Iran.

Earlier “at least 17” arrests were reported in the incident, which occurred in Kermanshah, an Iranian village near the border with Iraq.

6Rang expressed deep concern about implications of the arrests for the safety of LGBT people in Iran:

6Rang is deeply worried about the well-being and fate of individuals in Iran who belong to the LGBT community. They are at high risk of long-term detention, psychological and physical torture, and death.

6Rang calls on the international community– including concerned citizens, world officials, and human rights activists and organizations– to help spread widespread awareness on LGBT-related issues in order to prevent the persecution and deaths of members of the LGBT community in Iran.

The news of the arrests…

View original post 969 more words

19 who are in prison for being gay, 41 more awaiting trial

76 CRIMES

(This is the latest update of a list that is often revised — again and again — as new information is received.)

Worldwide, at least 19 people are currently in prison for violating laws that punish those who are born gay, lesbian or bisexual. In addition, at least 41 other people are awaiting trial on charges related to  homosexuality.

The prison sentences that have been imposed range up to five years, at the lower end of punishments that are on the books in the 76-plus countries where homosexuality is currently illegal.

Listing 60 people is probably an extreme understatement of the number of people who are behind bars or awaiting trial on anti-homosexuality charges, but finding out about specific cases is difficult, especially in countries without a free press.

The lists below provide a narrow window into just one of many types of injustice affecting lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender…

View original post 3,044 more words

UK: Major search for man missing off Brighton beach – 231013 2145z

A search has been ongoing all afternoon for a man who was reported to be in the water to the west of the groyne near Black Rock Station, Brighton.

 

Solent Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre received a 999 call from a member of the public at just before 2.45pm today. The caller reported hearing a person in the water shouting for help. The RNLI lifeboat was sent immediately to the scene, however on arrival the person had disappeared under the water.

 

The Coastguard Rescue helicopter based at Lee on Solent joined the search with the Coastguard Rescue Teams from Newhaven and Shoreham and staff from the Brighton Beach Office, South Central Ambulance and Sussex Police. Unfortunately the person was not found despite a detailed search of the area where they were last seen.

 

The search has now been scaled down because of darkness. The area will be monitored overnight and a further search made at first light in the morning.

 

Solent Coastguard Watch Manager David Williams said:

“The lifeboat and helicopter were on scene really quickly this afternoon and everyone involved did everything they could to find this person. There will be a watch on the area where he was last seen overnight but this is increasingly looking like a tragic accident.�

Europe: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 1 for parts of France, Benelux, Germany, Italy and Iberia valid until 241013 0600Z. Tornadoes, Heavy rain and hail possible – 231013 1348z

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 23 Oct 2013 06:00 to Thu 24 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 22 Oct 2013 21:15
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Central France, BENELUX and Northwestern Germany mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Southern France and Northern Italy mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Western Iberia mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

General macrosynoptic pattern will remain more or less the same as during the previous days – a broad southwesterly flow is forecast over much of Western and Central Europe situated between deep trough over the Atlantic and ridge over Eastern Europe. This trough will translate towards northeast, slightly de-amplifying the ridge but no major reconfiguration is expected. Unseasonably warm airmass has spread all the way up to Southern Scandinavia, while a weak CAA is expected behind the insignificant cold front that will move from France towards Germany. Another significant trough will approach the Iberian penninsula towards the Thursday morning hours.

DISCUSSION

… Central, NE France, BENELUX, NW Germany …

With cooler, moist airmass overspreading the region, low LCLs are forecast. Only moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will very likely limit the instability build-up, so that only few hundreds J/kg of CAPE are expected at best. Strong, unidirectional wind shear is simulated, with much of the shear within the lowest 1 km, yielding LLS values between 10-15 m/s in the region. With the belt of enhanced PV approaching the area, scattered DMC will initiate. In the strong shear regime, low-topped supercells are well possible, capable of severe wind gusts, tornadoes or some mostly sub-severe hail.

… S France, N / NW Italy ….

In the strong southwesterly flow, a belt of steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to advect over the Mediterranean Sea along with moist low-level airmass. Moist flow experiencing uplift near the coastline or near the Alps will likely initiate widespread DMC – possibly featuring one or more MCS. In case of the training pattern, moist conditions might enhance precipitation efficiency and locally excessive rainfall is expected. Threat will shift from Southern France towards Northern Italy. MCS will likely start building southwards towards the unstable airmass during the Wednesday night hours. Enhanced low level shear near the coastline along with low cloud bases also point at the elevated tornado risk in the region, albeit this threat should be less prominent than the precipitation risk.

… W Iberia …

During the late afternoon / evening hours, tongue of moist and unstable airmass ahead of the trough is expected to initiate widespread DMC near the coastline. With strong low level convergence and enhanced mixing ratios, isolated excessive precipitation event is quite possible. Tornadoes can not be ruled out in this setup with stronger low level shear inland, albeit CAPE here will be likely mostly elevated, thus possibly rendering this shear ineffective.

Related:

Severe Weather Warnings for Europe. Orange Alerts for Switzerland, France, Italy and Netherlands� http://www.meteoalarm.eu

Japan:Typhoon (28W) LEKIMA 242100Z near 24.4N 144.5E, moving NW at 14 knots. (JTWC) CAT4 (Saffir-Simpson scale) – 241013 2250z

Typhoon (28W JTWC) (1328 JMA)

LEKIMA

�

is now equivalent to a CATEGORY4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale

…LEKIMA NO LONGER A SUPER TYPHOON...(NWS GUAM)

IWO TO IN NWS GUAM POTENTIAL TRACK AREA

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

Okinawa

(Image: JMA) Okinawa on radar (Click image for source & latest animation)

TY 1328 (LEKIMA)
Issued at 22:00 UTC, 24 October 2013

<Analyses at 24/21 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	Violent
Center position	N24�20′(24.3�)
	E144�30′(144.5�)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure	915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	E500km(270NM)
	W330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity	Very Strong
Center position of probability circle	N27�30′(27.5�)
	E144�25′(144.4�)
Direction and speed of movement	N 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure	925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
Storm warning area	ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 25/21 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N32�05′(32.1�)
	E146�55′(146.9�)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure	950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)
Storm warning area	ALL300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N38�30′(38.5�)
	E156�40′(156.7�)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure	980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle	330km(180NM)
Storm warning area	ALL440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N40�40′(40.7�)
	E168�35′(168.6�)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure	1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle	460km(250NM)

791

WTPQ32 PGUM 242107

TCPPQ2

BULLETIN

TYPHOON LEKIMA (28W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP282013

800 AM CHST FRI OCT 25 2013

�

…LEKIMA NO LONGER A SUPER TYPHOON…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…24.4N 144.5E

ABOUT 395 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN

ABOUT 445 MILES NORTH OF PAGAN

ABOUT 470 MILES NORTH OF ALAMAGAN

ABOUT 645 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND

ABOUT 755 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

———————-

AT 700 AM CHST…1500 UTC…THE EYE OF TYPHOON LEKIMA WAS LOCATED BY

SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.5 EAST.

LEKIMA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. LEKIMA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO

THE NORTH TODAY…THEN CONTINUE TO CURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A

RAPID INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 130 MPH. FURTHER WEAKENING

IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 145 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED ON TYPHOON LEKIMA BY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

W.AYDLETT

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

• Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 242100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 018

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

—

WARNING POSITION:

241800Z — NEAR 23.6N 144.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 144.6E

—

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

250600Z — 26.9N 144.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS

—

24 HRS, VALID AT:

251800Z — 31.3N 146.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS

—

36 HRS, VALID AT:

260600Z — 35.9N 151.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 30 KTS

—

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

261800Z — 39.3N 157.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

EXTRATROPICAL

—

REMARKS:

242100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 144.5E.

TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF

IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL

STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY

UPDATES.//

NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Typhoon LEKIMA: Current TSR Data� (link)

Other Reports

Typhoons Francisco and Lekima weaken

“Typhoon Francisco has weakened to a tropical storm, and is bringing heavy rains to Japan as it stays offshore and heads northeast, parallel to the coast. Super Typhoon Lekima, which stayed at Category 5 status for a day and a half, has now weakened to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Lekima is still an impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas. While Lekima was at peak strength between 12 and 18 UTC on Wednesday, its eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength, something that is very unusual to see (thanks to Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS for the info and animation.)

Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Lekima, taken at approximately 01:05 UTC on October 24, 2013. At the time, Lekima was a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.
” – Dr. Jeff Masters

Lekima Strongest Storm 2013 & Francisco Okinawa Impact

Published on October 23, 2013 by robspeta// Westernpacificweather

�Today we continue to monitor our two typhoons. One nearing Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands bringing high winds and waves up to 10 meters high. The other well over open ocean but has dropped its pressure to the lowest in 2013. With a hpa of 905 it is the strongest Typhoon this season.

Typhoon Francisco is nearing the southern Japanese islands today bringing with it high winds, large waves and heavy rainfall. Already on Daito Jima winds up to 108kph have been recorded and on Kadena AB in southern Okinawa gust of 30kts have been seen. The worst of the storm is exepcted to impact the islands Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

Storm Warnings are in effect at this time for all of the southern Japanese islands via JMA and the Okinawa Military has set �Storm Watch� (This means that winds are not forecasted to exceed 50 knots sustained (the criteria for �destructive winds�) but there still exists a probability of high winds due to the proximity of the storm. High winds may include gusts exceeding 50 knots. )

Typhoon Francisco will start to impact the southern Japanese islands on Wednesday night in to Thursday late morning bringing in high waves at first along with scattered showers sometimes becoming heavy

Vis Sat

and max winds likely at strong Tropical Storm Strength. The worst of the weather will remain on the northern and western coastlines of the Okinawa and the Kagoshima islands taking the brunt of the storm. The worst of the weather will be on Daito Jima where winds up to 140kph is likely along with 10 meter high waves.

Our thoughts at Westpacwx are Winds in the southern half of Okinawa are forecasted to peak at 40-50G65kts on Wednesday overnight through Thursday afternoon. A few gust could even get higher than this nearing the 65kt threshold but most will stay near 55kts. A total of 150mm of rainfall will also fall across the main island of Okinawa.  This will be reserved to the western sea boards and along coastal areas. If you’re in a sheltered area of course the winds will be much lower. The northern and north western half of the island will see the winds for a longer period of time on Thursday along with the Amami islands in Kagoshima.

Through Thursday in to Friday much weaker Francisco will skirt the Japanese coastline with the center of circulation staying off shore.  Typhoon Lekima should have enough influence on Francisco to cause it to swing away from the Japan Coastline. Francisco by that time will have a higher pressure than Lekima. This means it may get absorbed by Lekima thus moving east towards the storm and away from Japan. Still though moisture from Francisco and a Stationary boundary over Japan will bring the main threat of heavy rainfall across the area. The heaviest is forecasted to fall in Shikoku where 250-350mm will be seen along the pacific coast.  Expect low lying urban and river flooding in Tokyo along with dangerous waves near coastal areas. Areas of heaviest rainfall could see the risk of mudslides by Friday Evening in to Saturday Morning.  The worst being on Shikoku the Kii-Pennisula and the Izu islands which are still recovering from the impacts of Typhoon Wipha.

29 people have been confirmed dead and 16 are still missing following the massive record breaking amount of rainfall brought in by Wipha across Izu Oshima. Rescue workers continue to work around the clock in search of the missing.

Nursing facilities and clinics on the island are set to be closed as a precaution ahead of the storm.

Oshima Town officials are also making arrangements to evacuate about 550 elderly and disabled people from the island.

By Saturday Afternoon in to Evening Parts of Hokkaido and northern Honshu could see snowfall from the storm.

Daily Sat Update

�� Westernpacificweather

MARITIME

918

WHGM70 PGUM 231850

MWWGUM

URGENT � MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU

450 AM CHST THU OCT 24 2013

PMZ153-154-240700-

/O.CON.PGUM.SW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-131024T0800Z/

TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-

450 AM CHST THU OCT 24 2013

�SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT

UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING�

SEAS NEAR 10 FEET TODAY WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR

OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT. SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 FEET BY

EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS�

MARINERS SHOULD AVOID SHOALING AREAS�WHERE LONG PERIOD SWELL

CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING WAVES. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR

WAVES TO BREAK MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY

EXPERIENCED. REMEMBER�BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN

LARGER VESSELS.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 2100

WTJP32 RJTD 242100

WARNING 242100.

WARNING VALID 252100.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA (1328) 915 HPA

AT 24.3N 144.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 27.5N 144.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 32.1N 146.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

�

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 241800

WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.

WARNING VALID 251800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 130E 28N 127E 22N 127E 21N 122E 23N 117E 27N

120E 30N 122E 34N 121E 35N 126E 33N 130E.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 51N 167E 60N 169E 60N 180E 55N 180E 53N 173E 51N

167E.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA

AT 47N 175E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 25 KNOTS.

WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND

200 MILES ELSEWHERE.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 1010 HPA

AT 43N 135E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.

EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST

SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.

SUMMARY.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 44N 152E ESE 15 KT.

HIGH 1016 HPA AT 23N 174E ALMOST STATIONARY.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N 129E TO 32N 133E 33N 135E 32N 138E 31N

141E.

REMARKS.

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA (1328) 915 HPA AT 23.6N 144.7E : SEE TROPICAL

CYCLONE WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 965 HPA AT 27.0N 130.7E :

SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本：台風（ 28W ） LEKIMA 242100Z 24.4N 144.5E付近は、 14ノットで北西に移動する。 （ JTWC ） CAT4 （サファシンプソンスケール） – 241013 2250z

台風（ 28W JTWC ） （ 1328 JMA ）
LEKIMA

今サファシンプソンスケールでCATEGORY4ハリケーンに相当します

… LEKIMAもはやSUPER TYPHOON … （ NWSグアム）

NWSグアムPOTENTIALトラック領域INにIWO

（日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン） （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

（画像： wunderground.com ） 5日間の予報（ソース画像をクリック）

（画像： wunderground.com ）衛星（ソース画像をクリック）

気象庁

（画像： JMA ）
現在有効な警告/勧告

沖縄

（画像： JMA ）レーダー上の沖縄（ソース＆最新アニメーション画像をクリック）
TY 1328 （ LEKIMA ）
午前22時UTC 、 2013年10月24日に発行した
21分の24 UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
暴力的な強度
中心位置N24 �20 ‘ （24.3 �）
E144 �30 ‘ （ 144.5 �）
動きNNW毎時25キロ（ 14カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧915hPa
中央の55メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 105カラット）
最大突風スピード75メートル/秒（ 150カラット）
50カラット風の面積以上ALL150km （ 80nmの）
30カラット風の面積以上E500km （ 270NM ）
W330km （ 180nm以下）
25/09 UTC>ため<Forecast
非常に強い強度
確率円の中心位置N27 �30 ‘ （ 27.5 �）
E144 �25 ‘ （ 144.4 �）
動きN毎時30キロ（ 16カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧925hPa
中央45メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 90カラット）
最大突風スピード65メートル/秒（ 130カラット）
確率サークル90キロの半径（ 50NM ）
ストーム警告エリアALL240km （ 130nmプロセス）
21分の25 UTC>ため<Forecast
強い強度
確率サークルN32 � 05 ‘の中心位置（32.1 �）
E146 �55 ‘ （ 146.9 �）
動きNNE毎時45キロ（ 25カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧950hPa
中央の40メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 80カラット）
最大突風スピード60メートル/秒（ 115カラット）
確率160キロの円の半径（ 85NM ）
暴風雨警報エリアALL300km （ 160NM ）
18分の26 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN38の中心位置�30 ‘ （ 38.5 �）
E156 �40 ‘ （ 156.7 �）
動きNE毎時55キロ（ 29カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧980hPa
中央30メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 55カラット）
最大突風スピード40メートル/秒（ 80カラット）
確率330キロの円の半径（ 180nm以下）
ストーム警告エリアALL440km （ 240NM ）
18分の27 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率円の中心位置N40 �40 ‘ （ 40.7 �）
E168 �35 ‘ （ 168.6 �）
動きENE毎時45キロ（ 24カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧1000hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒（ 35カラット）
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒（ 50カラット）
確率460キロの円の半径（ 250nmの）

国立測候所予測OfficeWFOグアム

791

WTPQ32 PGUM 242107

TCPPQ2

BULLETIN

TYPHOON LEKIMA （ 28W ） ADVISORY番号18

国立気象SERVICE TIYAN GU WP282013

800 AM CHST金2013年10月25日

… LEKIMAもはやSUPER TYPHOON …

時計と警告

——————–

なし。

700の概要CHST AM … 2100 UTC … INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION … 24.4N 144.5E

395マイルほどアグリハン島の北北西

PAGAN OF 445 ABOUT MILES NORTH

アラマガン島の約470 kmノース

645マイルほどサイパン北と

グアム755 ABOUT MILES NORTH

最大持続WINDS … 130 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT … NW OR 16 MPH AT 320 DEGREES

考察および展望

———————-

700 AT CHST … 1500 UTC午前… TYPHOON LEKIMA OF EYEはBYに位置していた

LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH NEAR衛星…経度144.5 EAST 。

LEKIMAは16 MPHでNORTHWEST動いている。 LEKIMAはに向けることが期待され

NORTH TODAYは… THEN WITH北東に向かってカーブしていき

土曜日の朝までに前進速度が急激に増加。

最大持続WINDSは130 MPHに減少しました。さらなる弱体化

NEXT 24時間を通して期待されています。 TYPHOON強風はEXTEND

65 CENTER FROM MILES … AND TROPICAL STORM力UP外側

WINDSは、最大145マイルを引き出さ。

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

これはBY TYPHOON LEKIMAに発行されますLAST顧問です

国立測候所。

$ $

W.AYDLETT

合同台風警報センター（ JTWC ）

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN32 PGTW 242100

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /

SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /

RMKS /

1 。 TYPHOON 28W （ LEKIMA ）警告NR 018

NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧

MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

—

警告POSITION ：

241800Z — NEAR 23.6N 144.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 14 KTS AT 320 DEGREES

030 NM以内の正確な位置

POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に

PRESENT WIND配分：

115 KT 、突風140 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

23.6N 144.6E ： POSITを繰り返す

—

予測：

AT VALID 12時間：

250600Z — 26.9N 144.4E

110 KT 、突風135 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24人事POSITへのベクトル： 025 DEG / 24 KTS

—

AT VALID 24時間：

251800Z — 31.3N 146.7E

MAX風速 – 100 KT 、突風125 KT

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯BECOMING

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36人事POSITへのベクトル： 040 DEG / 30 KTS

—

VALID AT 36時間：

260600Z — 35.9N 151.5E

MAX風速 – 080 KT 、突風100 KT

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯BECOMING

064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

48人事POSITへのベクトル： 055 DEG / 30 KTS

—

EXTENDED OUTLOOK ：

AT VALID 48時間：

261800Z — 39.3N 157.8E

055 KT 、突風070 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯

—

備考：

24.4N 144.5E NEAR 242100Z POSITION 。

約194 NM東南東LOCATED TYPHOON 28W （ LEKIMA ）

IWO TOは過去6年以上14ノットで北西追跡して

HOURS 。 241800Zで最大有義波高は50フィートです。次

250300Z 、 250900Z 、 251500Z AND 252100Z AT警告。 TROPICALを参照してください

SIX – HOURLY FOR STORM 26W （ FRANCISCO ）警告（ WTPN33 PGTW ）

UPDATES 。 / /

NNNN

TSRのロゴ
熱帯性低気圧リスク（TSR）

ストームトラッカー地図

台風LEKIMA ：現在TSRデータ（リンク）
その他のレポート
台風サンフランシスコとLekimaは弱まる

“台風フランシスコは、熱帯低気圧に弱まっており、それがオフショアとどまり、北東ヘッドとして、日本に海岸に平行に大雨をもたらしている。日半は、カテゴリ5の状態に滞在したスーパー台風Lekimaは、現在弱まっている毎時150マイルの風とカテゴリ4嵐。に衛星ループLekimaはまだ非常に冷たい雲のトップスと眼の壁雲の固体リングに囲まれた著名な目で印象的な台風であることを示している。 Lekimaは、任意の土地に影響を与えずに北東に後ろに反らすことが予測される嵐がカテゴリで5強、参照するには非常に異例のことだ何か（ウィスコンシンCIMSS大学のスコットBachmeierおかげのため滞在中のエリア。 Lekimaは水曜日に12と18 UTC間のピーク強度であったがが、その目のサイズが大幅に拡大情報とアニメーション。 ）

図3 。 2013年10月24日に約1：05 UTCに取らスーパー台風LekimaのMODIS衛星画像、 。当時、 Lekimaは毎時160マイルの風とカテゴリ5のスーパー台風だった。画像クレジット： NASA 。
” – ジェフマスターズ博士
Lekima最強ストーム2013 ＆サンフランシスコ沖縄インパクト

robspeta / / Westernpacificweatherによって2013年10月23日に公開

“今日、我々は我々の2台風を監視し続けています。 One近づい沖縄、高さ10メートルの強風と波を育てる南の日本列島。外洋上の他のよくしかし、2013年に最低のへの圧力を減少している。 905のHPAで、それは最強の台風この季節です。

台風フランシスコはそれで強風、大きな波や大雨をもたらす南の日本列島今日に近づいています。すでに大東の島は108kphまで巻きが記録されており、嘉手納AB上30kts南部沖縄突風で見てきた。嵐の最悪は、木曜日の朝を通して島水曜日の夜に影響するexepctedされています。

嵐の警告は”ストームウォッチ” （風が持続50ノット（ “破壊的な風”の基準）を超えると予測されていませんが、ことを意味を設定している気象庁と沖縄の軍事経由南の日本列島のすべてについて、この時点で有効になっているそれでも50ノットを超える突風が含まれるstorm.�強風の接近のために強風の確率が存在する。 ）

台風フランシスコは時々重くなって散乱シャワーと一緒に最初に高波持ち込み昼前木曜日に水曜日の夜に南の日本列島に影響を与え始めます

VIは、土

と強力な熱帯低気圧強度でおそらく最大の風。天候最悪のは嵐の矛先を取って沖縄と鹿児島の島の北部と西部の海岸線上に残ります。天候の最悪の風、最大140kphは、10メートルの高さの波と一緒に可能性がある大東島になります。

Westpacwxで私たちの思考は、沖縄の南半分で風木曜日の午後を通して一夜水曜日に40 – 50G65ktsでピークと予測されています。少数の突風も、これは65カラットのしきい値に近づいていますが、ほとんど55ktsの近くに滞在するよりも高くなる可能性があります。降雨量150ミリメートルの合計も、これは西の海ボードに予約及び沿岸地域に沿ってされOkinawa.�本島全体に落ちるでしょう。もしyou�の��風がはるかに低くなりますもちろん保護された領域に再。島の北部と北西半分は鹿児島の奄美の島とともに木曜日に時間の長い期間のために風を見ることができます。

木曜日までFriday�はるかに弱いサンフランシスコにshore.�台風Lekima 、それが日本の海岸線から離れてスイングさせるためにサンフランシスコに十分な影響力を持っている必要がありオフ滞在循環の中心に日本の海岸線をスカートになります。その時間でサンフランシスコLekimaよりも高い圧力を持つことになります。これは、 Lekimaこうして離れて日本から嵐に向かって東へ移動し、に吸収されるかもしれませんことを意味します。まだけれどもサンフランシスコからの水分や日本以上静止境界領域にわたって大雨の主な脅威をもたらすでしょう。重いは250〜350ミリメートルが太平洋沿岸に沿って見れる場所四国に落ちると予測されています。 �は、沿岸地域の近くに危険な波と一緒に東京の低地の都市と河川洪水を期待。重い降雨量の地域は土曜日の朝に金曜日の夕方までに土砂崩れの危険性を見ることができました。 �は最悪、四国紀伊Pennisula 、まだ台風Wiphaの影響から回復している伊豆島にあること。

29人が死亡が確認されており、 16はまだ伊豆大島越えWiphaによってもたらさ降雨量の膨大な記録破りの量以下の不足しています。救助隊員が行方不明の検索で時計を回避し続けています。

島の介護施設や診療所は、先に嵐の予防措置として閉鎖されるように設定されている。

大島町の職員も配置が島から550高齢者や障害者について、避難を行っている。

北海道と本州北部の夕べ部品にで土曜日の午後に嵐からの降雪見ることができました。

毎日更新して土

” – Westernpacificweather
MARITIME

918

WHGM70 PGUM 231850

MWWGUM

URGENT – 海洋気象のMESSAGE

国立気象SERVICE TIYAN GU

450 AM CHST木2013年10月24日

PMZ153 – 154から240700 –

/ O.CON.PGUM.SW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z – 131024T0800Z /

テニアン近海- SAIPAN沿岸WATERS –

450 AM CHST木2013年10月24日

…危険SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFTのアドバイザリは有効なまま

午後6時のCHST UNTIL今晩…

10 FEET TODAY NEAR SEASはFOR危険な状態を生成します

小型船舶のオペレータ。 SEASはBY 10フィートを下回るべきである（SHOULD）

EVENING 。

準備アクション/予防…

マリナーズの領域を浅水避けるべき…長い期間はSWELL WHERE

LARGE破り波にSHARPEN CAN 。 ITのは珍しいことではありません

通常はTHAN波が浅水地域からMUCH遠く破る

経験した。 REMEMBER …砕波することも容易に転覆CAN

太い血管。
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 2100

WTJP32は242100をRJTD

WARNING 242100 。

VALID 252100警告。

台風警報。

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA （ 1328 ） 915 HPA

24.3N 144.5E小笠原松濤はNORTHNORTHWEST 14ノットMOVING AT 。

良いポジション。

MAXは、中央付近の105ノットの風。

50 KNOTのWINDS OVER 80マイルの半径。

30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は270 kmイースト半円AND 180マイル

ELSEWHERE 。

50マイル半径27.5N 144.4E AT 250900UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

925 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 90ノット。

85マイルの半径32.1N 146.9E AT 252100UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

950 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 80ノット。

気象庁。 =

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 241800

WARNINGと要約241800 。

VALID 251800警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30〜40 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

33N 130Eで囲まWATERS 28N 127E 22N 127E 21N 122E 23N 117E 27N

120E 30N 122E 34N 121E 35N 126E 33Nの130E 。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30〜40 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

51N 167E 60N 169E 60N 180E 55N 180E 53N 173E 51Nで囲まWATERS

167E 。

GALE警告。

LOW 996 HPAを開発

47N ATアリューシャンOF 175E SEA SOUTHはEASTSOUTHEAST 25ノットMOVING 。

WINDSはLOW南西部の600マイル以内に30 〜35ノット半円AND

ELSEWHERE 200マイル。

GALE警告。

LOW 1010 HPAの開発

JAPAN 、北東15ノットを移動する43N 135E SEA AT 。

LOW SOUTHEAST OF 600マイル以内に期待WINDS 30 〜35 KNOTS

半円AND 300マイルELSEWHERE NEXT 12時間。

概要。

44N 152E ESE 15 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA 。

ALMOST STATIONARY 23N 174E AT HIGH 1016 HPA 。

31N 129E FROM 32N 133E 33Nに対して静止FRONT 135E 32N 138E 31N

141E 。

REMARKS 。

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA （ 1328 ） 23.6N 144.7E AT 915 HPAは： TROPICAL SEE

CYCLONE警告。

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327サンフランシスコ（ 1327 ） 27.0N 130.7E AT 965 HPA ：

熱帯低気圧の警告が表示されます。

気象庁。 =

Mexico: Tropical Storm (17E) RAYMOND 232200Z near 15.1N 103.9W, moving WSW at 8 knots. Moving away from Guerrero and Michoacan coast – 231013 2310z

Tropical Storm 17E

 

�RAYMOND

 

 

 

�Tropical storm �Raymond� continues to move away from the coast of Guerrero and Michoacan, maintaining its slow moving toward the west-southwest.(Conagua, Mexico)

 

 

 

��RAYMOND STILL WEAKENING�(NHC)

 

 

 

 

 

(Scroll down for Spanish translation) (Despl�cese hacia abajo para la traducci�n al español)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MEXICO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical storm �Raymond� continues to move away from the coast of Guerrero and Michoacan, maintaining its slow moving toward the west-southwest.

 

�

 

The dense cloud bands �Raymond� continue on the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and some states in the center of the country, likewise maintains high waves on coasts of those states.

 

 

 

�

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning in the Pacific

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aviso Ciclón Tropical en el Pacífico

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Severe Weather Alert

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aviso de Tiempo Severo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

View in Google
Earth (Active KML)

 

 

 

 

 

WTPZ32 KNHC 232033

 

TCPEP2

 

 

 

BULLETIN

 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 16

 

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013

 

200 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013

 

 

 

�RAYMOND STILL WEAKENING�

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT�2100 UTC�INFORMATION

 

���������������-

 

LOCATION�15.0N 103.8W

 

ABOUT 280 MI�450 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS�50 MPH�85 KM/H

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT�WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH�15 KM/H

 

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE�1000 MB�29.53 INCHES

 

 

 

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

 

�������

 

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

 

 

 

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

 

����������

 

AT 200 PM PDT�2100 UTC�THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS

 

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH�LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST. RAYMOND IS

 

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH�15 KM/H�AND THIS

 

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

 

 

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH�85

 

KM/H�WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING

 

THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES�110 KM

 

FROM THE CENTER.

 

 

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB�29.53 INCHES.

 

 

 

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

 

�������-

 

RAINFALL�RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL

 

AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO

 

15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO. THESE RAINS COULD

 

PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

 

 

 

SURF�SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT�BUT

 

ARE STILL CAPABLE OF CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT

 

CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION�PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM

 

YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

 

 

 

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

 

����-

 

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY�800 PM PDT.

 

 

 

$$

 

FORECASTER BLAKE

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

• Google Earth Graphic Overlay

 

WTPN31 PHNC 232200

 

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

 

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

 

RMKS/

 

1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 016

 

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

�

 

WARNING POSITION:

 

231800Z � NEAR 15.2N 103.4W

 

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS � 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

 

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

 

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

 

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS � 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS � 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 103.4W

 

�

 

FORECASTS:

 

12 HRS, VALID AT:

 

240600Z � 14.8N 105.0W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS � 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS � 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

 

�

 

24 HRS, VALID AT:

 

241800Z � 14.6N 106.7W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS � 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS � 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

 

�

 

36 HRS, VALID AT:

 

250600Z � 14.4N 108.5W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS � 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS � 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS

 

�

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

 

48 HRS, VALID AT:

 

251800Z � 13.9N 110.5W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS � 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS � 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS

 

�

 

72 HRS, VALID AT:

 

261800Z � 13.2N 114.2W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS � 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS � 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

 

�

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

 

�

 

96 HRS, VALID AT:

 

271800Z � 13.5N 118.0W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS � 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS

 

�

 

120 HRS, VALID AT:

 

281800Z � 15.0N 120.0W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS � 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

�

 

REMARKS:

 

232200Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 103.9W.

 

TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM WEST-

 

SOUTHWESTWARD OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD

 

AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT

 

WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.

 

//

 

NNNN

 

 

 

 

 

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Oct, 2013 21:00 GMT

 

 

 

Hurricane RAYMOND (17E) currently located near 16.3 N 101.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

 

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
��������probability for TS is 70% currently

 

 

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

 

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

�Other Reports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Raymond weakens to a tropical storm; threat diminishes for Mexico

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dr. Jeff Masters� WunderBlog

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By: Dr. Jeff Masters,�2:26 PM GMT on October 23, 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

�Tropical Storm Raymond continues to spin just offshore of Acapulco, Mexico, but its top winds have weakened to 65 mph. As of 8 am EDT Wednesday, Raymond was stationary, and centered about 190 miles west-southwest of Acapulco. Raymond brought 7.05″ of rain Saturday through Tuesday to Acapulco. All watches and warnings have been discontinued for the coast of Mexico, but Raymond is expected to bring an additional 1 � 2″ of rain to the coast. Raymond is in an area with weak steering currents, but a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in later Wednesday and force the storm west-southwestwards, away from the coast. Recent satellite loops show the weakening trend of Raymond, and wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post discussing the causes.

 

Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Raymond, taken at approximately 2:30 pm EDT on October 22, 2013. At the time, Raymond was a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

 

� � Dr. Jeff Masters

 

 

 

�MARITIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Image: NHC) Graphicast Eastern Pacific (Click image for source)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High Seas Forecast (Tropical NE Pacific)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FZPN03 KNHC 232118

 

HSFEP2

 

 

 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST

 

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

 

2230 UTC WED OCT 23 2013

 

 

 

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

 

 

 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT�WHICH IS THE AVERAGE

 

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE

 

MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

 

 

 

SECURITE

 

 

 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 23.

 

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU OCT 24.

 

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 25.

 

 

 

.WARNINGS.

 

 

 

�TROPICAL STORM WARNING�

 

.TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 15.0N 103.8W 1000 MB AT 2100 UTC

 

OCT 23 MOVING WSW OR 250 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45

 

KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND

 

SE QUADRANTS�60 NM NE AND 30 NM SW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR

 

GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER�EXCEPT 100 NM NW QUADRANT WITH

 

SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND WITHIN 120 NM S

 

SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 14.6N 106.7W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE

 

WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE�30 NM SE AND 0 NM SW QUADRANTS.

 

SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER�EXCEPT 90 NM NW

 

QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND

 

WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS

 

8 TO 12 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 13.9N 110.5W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE

 

WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM

 

OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM NW AND

 

WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS

 

8 TO 12 FT.

 

.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 13.2N 114.2W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK�USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY�ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.

 

.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 13.5N 118.0W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

 

.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 15.0N 120.0W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

 

�

 

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE

 

USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK�SIZE

 

AND INTENSITY.`

 

 

 

�GALE WARNING�

 

.WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14.5N95W TO 14N96W�

 

INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC�N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

 

SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

 

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N94.5W TO 14N95W�

 

INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC�N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.

 

SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N94.5W

 

TO 14N95W TO 13.5N96.5W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE 16N94.5W TO 14N96W�

 

INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC�N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.

 

SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W

 

NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE 16N94.5W TO 13.5N95.5W�

 

INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC�N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

 

SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W

 

NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

 

 

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

 

 

.LOW PRES 10N124W 1010 MB. WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.

 

SEAS TO 9 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 09.5N124W 1010 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NW

 

SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 09.5N125W 1011 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NW

 

SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

 

 

 

.FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 133W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9

 

FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

 

 

.COLD FRONT 30N138W TO 28N140W. WITHIN 150 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS

 

20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. NW OF FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS

 

TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N135W TO 26N140W. WINDS 20 KT OR

 

LESS. NW OF FRONT SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N134W TO 26N140W WINDS 20 KT OR

 

LESS. N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN

 

MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.

 

 

 

.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT

 

OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

 

 

 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

 

 

CONVECTION VALID 2100 UTC WED OCT 23�

 

 

 

.TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND�SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG E OF

 

CENTER WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14.5N102W TO 17N100W�AND WELL

 

W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 15 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N105W TO 17N105W.

 

 

 

.LOW PRES 10N124W�SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

 

 

 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH�

 

MONSOON TROUGH 10N86W TO 09N91W TO 12N97W�RESUMES FROM 12N105W

 

TO 10N108W TO 10N124W TO 09N131W. ITCZ 09N131W TO 10N140W.

 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF LINES FROM 13N99W

 

TO 09.5N105W TO 10N111W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 11N114W TO 10N121W TO

 

08N125W TO 11N136W.

 

 

 

$$

 

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2033

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WTPZ22 KNHC 232033

 

TCMEP2

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16

 

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013

 

2100 UTC WED OCT 23 2013

 

 

 

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 103.8W AT 23/2100Z

 

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

 

 

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT

 

 

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

 

34 KT��. 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

 

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

 

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

 

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

 

 

REPEAT�CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 103.8W AT 23/2100Z

 

AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.4W

 

 

 

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 105.0W

 

MAX WIND 40 KT�GUSTS 50 KT.

 

34 KT� 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

 

 

 

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.6N 106.7W

 

MAX WIND 35 KT�GUSTS 45 KT.

 

34 KT� 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

 

 

 

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W

 

MAX WIND 35 KT�GUSTS 45 KT.

 

34 KT� 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

 

 

 

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.9N 110.5W

 

MAX WIND 35 KT�GUSTS 45 KT.

 

34 KT� 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

 

 

 

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W

 

MAX WIND 40 KT�GUSTS 50 KT.

 

34 KT� 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

 

 

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE�ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

 

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5�AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

 

 

 

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W

 

MAX WIND 50 KT�GUSTS 60 KT.

 

 

 

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W

 

MAX WIND 55 KT�GUSTS 65 KT.

 

 

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 103.8W

 

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

 

 

 

$$

 

FORECASTER BLAKE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FZPN02 KWBC 231730

 

HSFEPI

 

 

 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII

 

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

 

1745 UTC WED OCT 23 2013

 

 

 

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE

 

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

 

 

 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT�WHICH IS THE AVERAGE

 

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY

 

BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

 

 

 

SECURITE

 

 

 

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT

 

TO 50N 160E

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 23.

 

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 24.

 

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 25.

 

 

 

.WARNINGS.

 

 

 

�STORM WARNING�

 

.LOW 45N170W 977 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 120 NM NW�180 NM

 

NE AND 240 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.

 

ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NW�360 NM NE�600 NM SE AND 1200 NM

 

SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18 FT. ALSO FROM 30N

 

TO 50N W OF 160W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N165W 956 MB. WITHIN 300 NM N AND 240 NM

 

S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE

 

WITHIN 600 NM N AND 720 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS

 

10 TO 20 FT. ALSO WITHIN 420 NM E OF A FRONT FROM 46N156W TO

 

39N161W TO 31N175W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST 58N169W 969 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW�480 NM SE

 

AND 780 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 24 FT.

 

ELSEWHERE WITHIN 780 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO

 

16 FT.

 

 

 

�GALE WARNING�

 

.LOW 55N143W 997 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE

 

AND 360 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

 

ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10

 

FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED WELL INLAND AND ASSOCIATED

 

CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

 

�

 

�GALE WARNING�

 

.LOW 42N142W 999 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 480 NM S SEMICIRCLE

 

AND 360 NM NW AND 180 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9

 

TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 48N BETWEEN 134W AND 152W WINDS

 

TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N138W 1004 MB. WITHIN 420 NM W

 

SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 37N134W 1010 MB. FROM 30N TO 42N BETWEEN

 

127W AND 142W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

 

�

 

�GALE WARNING�

 

.LOW 55N173W 988 MB MOVING SW 10 KT. WITHIN 360 NM NW�240 NM

 

SE�420 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16

 

FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 54N165W

 

DESCRIBED ABOVE.

 

�

 

�GALE WARNING�

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N172E 998 MB. WITHIN 420 NM NW AND 600

 

NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N175W 984 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM AND 600 NM

 

SW QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE

 

WITHIN 180 NM NW�300 NM NE�660 NM SE AND 960 NM SW QUADRANTS

 

WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18 FT. ALSO WITHIN 1080 NM SW

 

QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

 

�

 

�GALE WARNING�

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 60N150W TO

 

57N138W E TO SE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.

 

 

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

 

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE FROM

 

30N TO 45N BETWEEN 160W AND 173E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW 47N175W IN

 

WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

 

 

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 58N142W TO

 

45N150W TO 30N166W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

 

 

 

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 48N TO 58N

 

BETWEEN 135W AND 143W AND FROM 42N TO 46N BETWEEN 166W AND 172W.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 52N BETWEEN 151W AND

 

154W.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.

 

 

 

.HIGH 35N155W 1020 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N150W 1020 MB.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N146W 1021 MB.

 

 

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N134W 1021 MB.

 

 

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 45N157W 1016 MB.

 

 

 

.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

 

 

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

 

 

 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 23.

 

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 24.

 

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 25.

 

 

 

.WARNINGS.

 

 

 

�TROPICAL STORM WARNING�

 

.TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 15.4N 103.0W 996 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT

 

23 MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT

 

GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE

 

QUADRANTS�70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT

 

OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 100 NM NW QUADRANT WITH

 

SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF

 

CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA

 

WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.

 

SEAS TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 14.9N 105.7W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE

 

WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS�60 NM NE QUADRANT AND

 

30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 100 NM N

 

SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE

 

WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS

 

8 TO 12 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 14.4N 109.0W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN

 

RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.

 

.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 13.8N 112.5W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. EXTENDED

 

OUTLOOK�USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY�ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.

 

.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 14.2N 116.2W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

 

.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 16.0N 118.0W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

 

�

 

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE

 

USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK�SIZE

 

AND INTENSITY.

 

 

 

�GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING�

 

.WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W�INCLUDING

 

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC�N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8

 

FT.

 

.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W TO

 

14N96W�INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC�N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35

 

KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO 14N96W

 

INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC�N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS

 

9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO 14N95W TO

 

13N97W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO 14N95W TO

 

13N96W�INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC�N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35

 

KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO

 

14N95W TO 12N97W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

 

 

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

 

 

.FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT

 

IN NW SWELL.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.

 

SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL.

 

.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

 

 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

 

 

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC WED OCT 23�

 

 

 

.TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND�SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN

 

140 NM E SEMICIRCLE.

 

 

 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH�

 

MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W TO 11N94W THEN RESUMES FROM 12N108W TO

 

10N130W. ITCZ 10N130W TO 11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG

 

WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 133W.

 

 

 

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI

 

NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 23 2013.

 

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 24 2013.

 

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 25 2013.

 

 

 

.WARNINGS.

 

 

 

.NONE.

 

 

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

 

 

.FRONT FROM 29N140W TO 23N144W TO 20N147W MOVING E SLOWLY.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

 

 

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N175W TO 28N175E TO 30N167E.

 

WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N165W TO 27N179W TO 30N164E.

 

WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 28N.

 

 

 

.RIDGE FROM 30N162W TO 26N180W TO 29N160E MOVING SE 10 KT.

 

 

 

.RIDGE FROM 30N159W TO 25N155W TO 22N149W NEARLY STATIONARY.

 

 

 

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.

 

 

 

.SEAS 9 TO 11 FT W OF 163E BETWEEN 15N AND 27N.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 FT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 9 TO 10 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 164W AND

 

169W.

 

 

 

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.

 

 

 

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS IN AREA BOUNDED BY 18N160E 10N174E

 

13N177W 06N177W 02N168E 08N160E.

 

 

 

.ITCZ FROM 08N140W TO 07N153W TO 05N165W. ISOLATED MODERATE

 

TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 155W AND E OF 143W.

 

 

 

$$

 

 

 

.FORECASTER POWELL. HONOLULU

 

 

 

END

 

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Spanish (Translated by Google)

M�xico : Tormenta Tropical ( 17E ) RAYMOND 232200Z cerca 15.1N 103.9W , movi�ndose OSO a 8 nudos. Alej�ndose de Guerrero y la costa de Michoac�n – 231013 2310z

Tormenta Tropical 17E

RAYMOND

La tormenta tropical ” Raymond ” contin�a alej�ndose de las costas de Guerrero y Michoac�n , manteniendo su lento movimiento hacia el oeste- suroeste. ( Conagua , M�xico )

… RAYMOND STILL debilitamiento de … ( NHC )

( Despl�cese hacia abajo para la traducci�n española ) ( Despl�cese HACIA Abajo Para La Traducci�n al español )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsi�n de 5 d�as ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Sat�lite ( imagen Pica para la fuente )

MEXICO

La tormenta tropical ” Raymond ” contin�a alej�ndose de las costas de Guerrero y Michoac�n , manteniendo su lento movimiento hacia el oeste- suroeste.

Las bandas de nubes densas ” Raymond ” contin�an en los estados de Guerrero, Michoac�n y algunos estados del centro del pa�s , as� mismo mantiene altas olas en las costas de los estados.

Advertencia cicl�n tropical en el Pac�fico

Aviso Ciclón Tropical en el Paca – fico

Alerta clim�tica grave

Aviso de Tiempo Severo

EE.UU.

Servicio Meteorol�gico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

[ Imagen de la predicci�n de 5 d�as y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

(Imagen: NHC ) Relojes / advertencias costeras y 5 d�as Cono de Storm Center ( Pulsar la imagen para la fuente)

Ver en Google
Tierra (Active KML )

WTPZ32 TJSJ 232033

TCPEP2

BOLET�N

TORMENTA TROPICAL RAYMOND ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16

NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP172013

200 PM PDT MI�RCOLES 23 de octubre 2013

… RAYMOND STILL debilitamiento de …

RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM PDT … 2100 UTC … INFORMACI�N

—————-

UBICACI�N … 15.0N 103.8W

ACERCA DE MI 280 … 450 KM S DE MANZANILLO MEXICO

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 50 MPH … 85 KM / H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … WSW O 250 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H

PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1000 MB … 29.53 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS

——-

NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO .

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS

———-

A LAS 200 PM PDT … 2100 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Raymond

LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.0 NORTE … LONGITUD 103.8 OESTE . RAYMOND ES

MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE -SUROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H … Y ESTE

MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA HASTA EL VIERNES .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 50 MPH … 85

KM / H … CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL SE ESPERA DURANTE

LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS .

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS … 110 KM

DESDE EL CENTRO .

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB … 29.53 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA

——–

LLUVIA … RAYMOND SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA LLUVIAS ADICIONALES

DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE HASTA

15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL ESTADO MEXICANO DE GUERRERO . ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN

PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO .

SURF … MAREJADAS GENERADOS POR RAYMOND DEBE DISMINUIR DURANTE LA NOCHE … PERO

Son todav�a capaces de causar SURF mortal y corriente de resaca

CONDICIONES . PARA M�S INFORMACI�N … CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS DE

SU SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO NACIONAL .

SIGUIENTE AVISO

—–

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 800 PM PDT .

$ $

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE

FIN

Warning Center del tif�n com�n ( JTWC )

Google Earth Gr�fico Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 232200

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /

SUBJ / CICL�N TROPICAL ADVERTENCIA / /

OBS /

1 . TORMENTA TROPICAL 17E ( RAYMOND ) ADVERTENCIA NR 016

01 ACTIVE CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC

Vientos m�ximos sostenidos basado en el promedio de un minuto

Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

–

ADVERTENCIA POSICI�N :

15.2N 103.4W CERCA – 231800Z

MOVIMIENTO �LTIMOS SEIS HORAS – 250 GRADOS A 08 KTS

POSICI�N una precisi�n de 015 NM

Posici�n basada en el centro situado POR SAT�LITE

DISTRIBUCION ACTUAL DEL VIENTO :

Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 045 KT , r�fagas de 055 KT

Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS KT 034 – 060 NM cuadrante noreste

050 NM cuadrante sureste

030 NM cuadrante suroeste

050 NM cuadrante noroeste

REPETIR POSIT : 15.2N 103.4W

–

Previsiones:

12 HRS , v�lido en :

240600Z – 14.8N 105.0W

Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 040 KT , r�fagas de 050 KT

Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS KT 034 – 050 NM cuadrante noreste

030 NM cuadrante sureste

020 NM cuadrante suroeste

040 NM cuadrante noroeste

VECTOR DE 24 POSIT HR: 265 º / 08 KTS

–

24 HRS , v�lido en :

241800Z – 14.6N 106.7W

Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 035 KT , r�fagas de 045 KT

Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS 034 KT – 040 NM cuadrante noreste

030 NM cuadrante sureste

000 NM cuadrante suroeste

040 NM cuadrante noroeste

VECTOR DE 36 HR POSIT : 265 º / 09 KTS

–

36 HRS , v�lido en :

250600Z – 14.4N 108.5W

Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 035 KT , r�fagas de 045 KT

Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS 034 KT – 040 NM cuadrante noreste

030 NM cuadrante sureste

000 NM cuadrante suroeste

040 NM cuadrante noroeste

VECTOR DE 48 POSIT HR: 255 º / 10 KTS

–

Perspectiva extendida :

48 HRS , v�lido en :

251800Z – 13.9N 110.5W

Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 035 KT , r�fagas de 045 KT

Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS 034 KT – 040 NM cuadrante noreste

030 NM cuadrante sureste

000 NM cuadrante suroeste

040 NM cuadrante noroeste

VECTOR DE 72 POSIT HR: 260 º / 09 KTS

–

72 HRS , v�lido en :

261800Z – 13.2N 114.2W

Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 040 KT , r�fagas de 050 KT

Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS KT 034 – 050 NM cuadrante noreste

030 NM cuadrante sureste

020 NM cuadrante suroeste

040 NM cuadrante noroeste

VECTOR DE 96 POSIT HR: 275 grados / 09 KTS

–

PERSPECTIVAS A LARGO ALCANCE :

–

96 HRS , v�lido en :

271800Z – 13.5N 118.0W

Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 050 KT , r�fagas de 065 KT

Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

VECTOR DE 120 POSIT HR: 310 º / 06 KTS

–

120 HRS , v�lido en :

281800Z – 15.0N 120.0W

Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 055 KT , r�fagas de 070 KT

Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

–

OBSERVACIONES :

POSICI�N 232200Z CERCA 15.1N 103.9W .

TORMENTA TROPICAL 17E (Raymond ) , situado a unos 224 NM OESTE-

SUROESTE DE ACAPULCO , MEXICO , ha rastreado OESTE- SUROESTE

A 08 NUDOS EN LOS �LTIMOS SEIS HORAS.

M�XIMO altura de ola significativa AT 231800Z es de 20 pies . SIGUIENTE

ADVERTENCIAS EN 240400Z , 241000Z , 241600Z 242200Z Y .

/ /

NNNN

TSR Logone Pac�fico: Alerta de Tormenta emitido al 22 de octubre 2013 21:00 GMT

Hurac�n RAYMOND ( 17E ) Actualmente se encuentra cerca de 16.3 N 101.9 W se prev� una huelga tierra a la siguiente verosimilitud ( s ) en el tiempo de espera determinado ( s ) :

Yellow Country Alert ( s ) o provincia ( s )
M�xico
probabilidad de TS es de 70 % en la actualidad

Tenga en cuenta que
Alerta amarilla ( elevada ) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10 % y 30 % de probabilidad, o TS a por encima de 50 % de probabilidad.
CAT 1 significa vientos de hurac�n de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph , 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1 -min sostenida.
TS significa tormenta tropical vientos de fuerza de por lo menos 39 mph , de 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1 -min sostenida.

Para obtener informaci�n sobre el pron�stico gr�fica y m�s detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Otros informes

Raymond se debilita a tormenta tropical , amenaza disminuye de M�xico

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Por : Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:26 GMT del 23 de octubre 2013

” La tormenta tropical Raymond contin�a girando cerca de la costa de Acapulco, M�xico , pero sus vientos se han debilitado a 65 mph. A partir del 08 a.m. EDT Mi�rcoles , Raymond era estacionaria , y se centra alrededor de 190 millas al oeste -suroeste de Acapulco. Raymond trajo 7.05 ” de la lluvia de s�bado a martes a Acapulco. Todas las alertas y advertencias se han suspendido para la costa de M�xico , pero se espera que Raymond traer un 1 – 2 ” de la lluvia de la costa. Raymond est� en una zona con corrientes d�biles de direcci�n , pero se prev� una cresta de alta presi�n para construir m�s tarde el mi�rcoles y la fuerza de la tormenta hacia el suroeste – oeste , lejos de la costa. Bucles satelitales recientes muestran la tendencia a la reducci�n de Raymond y wunderblogger Lee Grenci tiene un mensaje nuevo discutiendo las causas.

Figura 3 . Imagen satelital MODIS del hurac�n Raymond , tomada aproximadamente a las 2:30 pm EDT del 22 de octubre de 2013. En ese momento, Raymond era un hurac�n de categor�a 1 , con vientos de 75 mph . Cr�dito de la imagen : NASA .

” – Dr. Jeff Masters

MAR�TIMO

Graphicast Pac�fico Oriental

(Imagen: NHC ) Graphicast Pac�fico Oriental ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

High Seas Pron�stico (Tropical NE del Pac�fico )

FZPN03 TJSJ 232118

HSFEP2

ALTA MAR PRONOSTICO

NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL

2230 UTC MIERCOLES 23 de octubre 2013

SUSTITUIDO POR EXPEDICI�N AL LADO DE 6 HORAS

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio

ALTURA DE LA M�S ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuales pueden ser

M�s del doble de altura de ola significativa .

S�curit�

E PACIFICO DEL ECUADOR PARA 30N E DE 140W .

SINOPSIS V�LIDO 1800 UTC : Mie Oct 23.

24 HOUR 1800 UTC Pron�stico v�lido Jue Oct 24.

48 HOUR 1800 UTC Pron�stico v�lido vie 25 de octubre .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 15.0N 103.8W 1.000 MB a 2100 UTC

23 de octubre MUEVE WSW O 250 GRADOS A 8 KT . Los vientos m�ximos sostenidos de 45

RAFAGAS DE 55 KT KT . LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE 50 NM NO Y

CUADRANTES SE … 60 NM NE y SW 30 NM cuadrantes. SEAS 12 pies o

MAYOR PLAZO DE 90 NM DE CENTRO … EXCEPTO 100 NM NO CON CUADRANTE

SEAS A 17 FT . Otro punto de 150 NM N Y DENTRO DE 120 NM S

Semic�rculos DE VIENTOS DEL CENTRO DE 20 A 33 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 12 FT.

0.24 hora Pron�stico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 14.6N 106.7W .

Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 35 RAFAGAS DE 45 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL

VIENTOS EN 40 NM N semic�rculo … 30 NM SE Y 0 NM SW cuadrantes.

SEAS 12 pies o m�s dentro de 75 NM del centro … excepto 90 NM NW

CUADRANTE DE MAR A 16 FT . Otro punto de 240 NM NO Y

DENTRO DE 150 NM SE semic�rculos DE VIENTOS DEL CENTRO DE 20 A 33 KT . SEAS

8 A 12 FT .

0.48 hora Pron�stico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 13.9N 110.5W .

Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 35 RAFAGAS DE 45 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL

VIENTO A 30 mn del centro . SEAS 12 pies o m�s DENTRO DE 60 NM

DE CENTRO CON OLEAJE A 15 FT . Otro punto de 210 NM NO Y

DENTRO DE 150 NM SE semic�rculos DE VIENTOS DEL CENTRO DE 20 A 33 KT . SEAS

8 A 12 FT .

0.72 hora Pron�stico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 13.2N 114.2W .

Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 40 RAFAGAS DE 50 KT KT .

Perspectiva extendida … USO DE DIRECCI�N SOLAMENTE … Los errores pueden ser grandes.

0.96 hora Pron�stico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 13.5N 118.0W .

Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 50 RAFAGAS DE 60 KT KT .

0.120 HORAS DE PREVISI�N DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 15.0N 120.0W .

Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 55 RAFAGAS DE 65 KT KT .

VIENTOS DE PREDICCI�N EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe

Usar con precauci�n debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAÑO

E intensidad. ‘

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

. DENTRO DE 45 NM DE UNA L�NEA DE 16N94.5W A 14.5N95W A 14N96W …

Incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 30 KT .

OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT .

0.06 HORA PREVISTA EN 30 nm de una 16N94.5W LINEA 14N95W …

Incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N a NE VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT .

MARES 10 A 13 FT. Otro punto de 60 NM de la l�nea DE 16N94.5W

A 14N95W A 13.5N96.5W N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 25 KT . SEAS A 10 FT .

0.24 HORA PREVISTA EN 45 nm de una 16N94.5W LINEA 14N96W …

Incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N a NE VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT .

OLEAJE DE 11 A 14 FT . OTRO DE 11N A 15N ENTRE 94W Y 99W

NORESTE HASTA E VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT . SEAS A 11 FT .

0.48 HORA PREVISTA EN 45 nm de una 16N94.5W LINEA 13.5N95.5W …

Incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 30 KT .

OLEAJE DE 9 A 13 FT. OTRO DE 10N A 14N ENTRE 94W Y 101W

NORESTE HASTA E VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT .

. SINOPSIS Y PRON�STICO .

BAJA PRES . 10N124W 1010 MB. Dentro de los 150 Nm de vientos bajos 20 A 25 KT .

SEAS A 9 FT .

0.24 hora Pron�stico PRES BAJO 09.5N124W 1010 MB . DENTRO DE 90 NM NW

Semic�rculo de vientos bajos NE 20 A 25 KT . SEAS A 9 FT .

0.48 hora Pron�stico PRES BAJO 09.5N125W 1011 MB . DENTRO DE 90 NM NW

Semic�rculo de vientos bajos NE 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT .

. DE 08N A 18N W DE 133W CON VIENTO NE E 20 A 25 KT . SEAS A 9

FT EN MEZCLA Y NO SE hincharse.

0.24 hora Pron�stico VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

. COLD FRONT 30N138W A 28N140W . DENTRO DE 150 NM E DE VIENTO SW DELANTEROS

20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT . NO DE VIENTOS DELANTEROS 20 kt o inferior . SEAS

A 8 FT PRINCIPALMENTE EN MEZCLA Y NO SE hincharse.

0.24 hora Pron�stico COLD 30N135W FRENTE AL 26N140W . VIENTOS 20 kt o

MENOS . NO SEAS DE FRENTE A LAS 8 FT PRINCIPALMENTE EN MEZCLA Y NO SE hincharse.

0.48 hora Pron�stico COLD 30N134W FRENTE AL VIENTO 26N140W 20 kt o

MENOS . N DE 27N en los 120 Nm de SEAS FRENTE A 8 FT PRINCIPALMENTE EN

MEZCLA Y NO SE hincharse.

0.36 HORA PREVISTA DE 07N A 09N ENTRE 105W 112W Y VIENTOS 20 KT

O MENOS . OLEAJE A 8 FT PRINCIPALMENTE EN MEZCLA Y NO SE hincharse.

0.48 hora Pron�stico POCO CAMBIO .

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

CONVECCI�N V�LIDO 2100 UTC MIERCOLES 23 de octubre …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL RAYMOND … DISPERSOS MODERADA A FUERTE DE E

CENTRO DENTRO DE 90 NM DE L�NEA DE 14.5N102W A 17N100W … Y BIEN

W DEL CENTRO DENTRO DE 15 NM DE UNA L�NEA DE 15N105W A 17N105W .

. BAJA PRES 10N124W … DISPERSOS MODERADO EN 120 NM DE CENTRO .

. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCIA ZONE / vaguada monz�nica …

Vaguada monz�nica 10N86W A 09N91W A 12N97W … tras un tiempo de 12N105W

A 10N108W A 10N124W A 09N131W . ITCZ 09N131W A 10N140W .

DISPERSADAS MODERADA FUERTE aislado dentro de 60 NM de l�neas desde 13N99W

A 09.5N105W A 10N111W Y OTRA DE 11N114W 10N121W A A

08N125W A 11N136W .

$ $

. PRONOSTICADOR NELSON . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2033

WTPZ22 TJSJ 232033

TCMEP2

TORMENTA TROPICAL RAYMOND PRON�STICO / ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16

NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP172013

2100 UTC MIERCOLES 23 de octubre 2013

NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO .

CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA CERCA 15.0N 103.8W AT 23/2100Z

POSICI�N EXACTA PLAZO DE 15 NM

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL HACIA LOS GRADOS OESTE- SUROESTE O 250 EN 8 KT

PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA 1000 MB

Vientos m�ximos sostenidos de 45 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 55 KT .

34 KT ……. 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW .

12 SEAS FT .. 90NE 90SE 90SW 100NW .

VIENTO Y OLEAJE var�an mucho en cada cuadrante. RADIOS EN N�UTICA

MILES SON LOS RADIOS DE ESPERA M�S GRANDE EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN QUE cuadrante.

REPEAT … CENTRO UBICADO CERCA 15.0N 103.8W AT 23/2100Z

AT 23/1800Z CENTER ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA 15.2N 103.4W

Pron�stico v�lido 24/0600Z 14.8N 105.0W

MAX WIND 40 KT … RAFAGAS DE 50 KT .

34 KT … 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW .

Pron�stico v�lido 24/1800Z 14.6N 106.7W

MAX WIND 35 KT … RAFAGAS DE 45 KT .

34 KT … 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW .

Pron�stico v�lido 25/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W

MAX WIND 35 KT … RAFAGAS DE 45 KT .

34 KT … 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW .

Pron�stico v�lido 25/1800Z 13.9N 110.5W

MAX WIND 35 KT … RAFAGAS DE 45 KT .

34 KT … 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW .

Pron�stico v�lido 26/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W

MAX WIND 40 KT … RAFAGAS DE 50 KT .

34 KT … 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW .

Perspectiva extendida . NOTA … ERRORES DE PISTA han promediado CERCA DE 150 NM

El d�a 4 y 175 NM en el d�a 5 … Y CERCA DE INTENSIDAD 15 KT CADA D�A

PERSPECTIVAS V�LIDO 27/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W

MAX WIND 50 KT … RAFAGAS DE 60 KT .

PERSPECTIVAS V�LIDO 28/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W

MAX WIND 55 KT … RAFAGAS DE 65 KT .

SOLICITUD DE 3 INFORMES DEL BUQUE POR HORA EN 300 MILLAS DE 15.0N 103.8W

SIGUIENTE AVISO EN 24/0300Z

$ $

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 231730

HSFEPI

ALTA MAR pron�stico para METAREA XII

NWS MAR CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES WASHINGTON DC

1745 UTC MIERCOLES 23 de octubre 2013

CCODE / 1:31:12:01:00 / AOW + POR / NWS / CCODE

SUSTITUIDO POR EXPEDICI�N AL LADO DE 6 HORAS

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio

ALTURA DE LA M�S ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuo puede

Ser m�s que dos veces la altura de ola significante .

S�curit�

PAC�FICO N DE 30N Y S DE 67N E DE UNA L�NEA DE BERING STRAIT

A 50N 160E

SINOPSIS V�LIDO 1200 UTC 23 de octubre .

24 HORAS Pron�stico v�lido 1200 UTC 24 de octubre .

Pron�stico de 48 horas v�lido a las 1200 UTC 25 de octubre .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA …

BAJA . 45N170W 977 MB MOVIMIENTO NE 25 KT . DENTRO DE 120 NM NO … 180 NM

NE y 240 NM cuadrantes VIENTOS SE 40 A 55 KT . SEAS 10 a 20 pies .

Otro punto de 300 NM NO … 360 … 600 NE NM NM SE Y 1200 NM

SW CUADRANTES VIENTOS DEL 25 AL 40 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 18 FT . TAMBI�N DE 30N

A 50N W DE VIENTO 160W A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 14 FT .

0.24 hora Pron�stico BAJOS 54N165W 956 MB . DENTRO DE 300 NM N y 240 NM

S semic�rculos VIENTO DEL 45 AL 60 KT . OLEAJE DE 14 A 26 FT . EN OTRA PARTE

DENTRO DE 600 NM N y 720 NM S semic�rculos VIENTOS 35 A 45 KT . SEAS

10 a 20 pies . TAMBI�N EN 420 NM E DE UN FRENTE DE 46N156W A

39N161W A 31N175W VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 16 FT .

0.48 hora Pron�stico 58N169W 969 MB . DENTRO DE 300 NM NO … 480 NM SE

Y 780 NM SW CUADRANTES VIENTOS DE 30 A 45 KT . OLEAJE DE 11 A 24 FT .

Otro punto de 780 NM cuadrante SE VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A

16 FT .

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

BAJA . 55N143W 997 MB MOVIMIENTO NE 20 KT . DENTRO DE 240 NM N SEMICIRCULO

Y 360 NM SE CUADRANTES VIENTOS DE 25 A 40 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 13 FT.

Otro punto de 300 NM SW CUADRANTE VIENTO A 25 KT . SEAS A 10

FT .

0.24 hora Pron�stico BAJA movi� bien INTERIOR Y ASOCIADOS

CONDICIONES disminuido.

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

. BAJA 42N142W 999 MB SE MUEVE 10 KT . DENTRO DE 480 NM S SEMIC�RCULO

Y 360 NM NW y 180 NM NE cuadrantes VIENTOS DE 25 A 40 KT . SEAS 9

A 18 FT . OTRO DE 30N A 48N ENTRE 134W 152W Y VIENTOS

A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 13 FT.

0.24 hora Pron�stico BAJA 39N138W 1004 MB . DENTRO DE 420 NM W

SEMICIRCULO VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT . OLEAJE DE 10 A 18 FT .

0.48 hora Pron�stico BAJOS 37N134W 1010 MB . DE 30N A 42N ENTRE

127W 142W Y VIENTOS DE HASTA 25 KT . SEAS A 10 FT .

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

. BAJA 55N173W 988 MB MUEVE SW 10 KT . DENTRO DE 360 NM NO … 240 NM

SE … 420 NM NE y SW CUADRANTES VIENTOS DE 25 A 40 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 16

FT .

0.24 HORAS BAJO Y CONDICIONES BAJO absorbida por 54N165W PRON�STICO

DESCRITO ANTERIORMENTE.

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

0.24 hora Pron�stico BAJOS 48N172E 998 MB . DENTRO DE 420 NM NO Y 600

NM SW CUADRANTES VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 16 FT .

0.48 hora Pron�stico BAJOS 47N175W 984 MB . Entre 240 nm y 600 nm

SW CUADRANTE VIENTOS DEL 35 AL 45 KT . MARES 10 A 21 FT. EN OTRA PARTE

DENTRO DE 180 NM NO … 300 … 660 NE NM NM SE y 960 NM SW CUADRANTES

VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 18 FT . TAMBI�N EN 1080 NM SW

VIENTOS DEL CUADRANTE DE 25 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

0.48 HORA PREVISTA EN 120 MN NE DE UNA L�NEA DE 60N150W A

57N138W E AL VIENTO SE 25 A 40 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 15 FT.

. SINOPSIS Y PRON�STICO .

0.24 hora Pron�stico excepto como se indica en las advertencias SECCI�N DE ARRIBA

30N A 45N ENTRE 160W Y 173E VIENTO A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 14 FT .

0.48 CONDICIONES DE PREDICCI�N HORA descrito con 47N175W BAJA EN

ADVERTENCIAS secci�n anterior.

0.48 HORA PREVISTA EN 300 NM E DE UNA L�NEA DE 58N142W A

45N150W AL VIENTO 30N166W 20 A 30 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 13 FT.

. Densa niebla. VSBY OCASIONALMENTE menor que 1 nm DE 48N A 58N

ENTRE 135W Y 143 W Y DE 42N A 46N ENTRE 166W Y 172W .

0.24 hora Pron�stico densa niebla DE 46N A 52N ENTRE 151W Y

154W .

0.48 CONDICIONES Hora del pron�stico mejorado.

ALTA . 35N155W 1020 MB MOVIMIENTO SE 10 KT .

0.24 hora Pron�stico HIGH 34N150W 1020 MB .

0.48 hora Pron�stico ALTA 33N146W 1021 MB .

0.48 hora Pron�stico ALTA 48N134W 1021 MB .

0.48 hora Pron�stico ALTA 45N157W 1016 MB .

HOLLEY . PRONOSTICADOR . OC�ANO Centro de Predicci�n .

CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL

E PACIFICO DEL ECUADOR PARA 30N E DE 140W .

SINOPSIS V�LIDO 1200 UTC : Mie Oct 23.

24 HOUR 1200 UTC Pron�stico v�lido Jue Oct 24.

Pron�stico de 48 horas v�lido a las 1200 UTC vie 25 de octubre .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 15.4N 103.0W 996 MB a 1500 UTC octubre

23 MUDANZAS WSW O 255 GRADOS A 7 KT . Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 50 KT

RAFAGAS DE 60 KT . LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE 60 NM NW y SE

CUADRANTES … 70 NM cuadrante NE Y 40 NM SW cuadrante. SEAS 12 FT

O MAYOR PLAZO DE 90 NM DEL CENTRO CON EXCEPCI�N 100 NM NO CON CUADRANTE

SEAS a 20 pies . OTRA M�S DE AGUAS DE PREDICCI�N EN 90 nm de

CENTRO DE VIENTOS DE 20 A 33 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT . RESTO DEL AREA

DENTRO DE 150 NM NW y 120 NM SE semic�rculos VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior .

SEAS A 10 PIES EN UNA MEZCLA DE AMPLIO hincharse.

0.24 hora Pron�stico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 14.9N 105.7W .

Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 45 RAFAGAS DE 55 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL

VIENTOS EN 50 NM NO SE … Y CUADRANTES 60 NM NE QUADRANT Y

30 NM SW cuadrante. SEAS 12 pies o m�s a menos de 100 NM N

Semic�rculo y 90 NM S semic�rculo con aguas a 19 FT . EN OTRA PARTE

DENTRO DE 180 NM N Y 120 NM S semic�rculos VIENTOS DE 20 A 33 KT . SEAS

8 A 12 FT .

0.48 hora Pron�stico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 14.4N 109.0W .

Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 45 RAFAGAS DE 55 KT KT . POCO CAMBIO EN

RADIO DE VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y MARES 12 pies o m�s .

0.72 hora Pron�stico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 13.8N 112.5W .

Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 50 RAFAGAS DE 60 KT KT . EXTENDIDO

PERSPECTIVAS … USO DE DIRECCI�N SOLAMENTE … Los errores pueden ser grandes.

0.96 hora Pron�stico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 14.2N 116.2W .

Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 55 RAFAGAS DE 65 KT KT .

0.120 HORAS DE PREVISI�N DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 16.0N 118.0W .

Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 60 RAFAGAS DE 75 KT KT .

VIENTOS DE PREDICCI�N EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe

Usar con precauci�n debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAÑO

E INTENSIDAD .

… Golfo de Tehuantepec GALE ADVERTENCIA …

. PLAZO DE 30 nm de una 16N95W LINEA 15N95W A 14N96W … INCLUYENDO

El Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE A 8

FT .

0.12 HORA PREVISTA EN 30 nm de una 16N95W LINEA 15N95W A

14N96W … INCLUYENDO Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE 25 A 35

KT . OLEAJE DE 9 A 13 FT.

0.24 HORA PREVISTA EN 30 nm de una 16N95W l�nea al 14N96W

INCLUYENDO Golfo de Tehuantepec … N a NE VIENTOS DE 30 A 35 KT . SEAS

9 A 14 FT . Otro punto de 45 nm de una 16N95W LINEA 14N95W A

13N97W N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 30 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES .

0.48 HORA PREVISTA EN 30 nm de una 16N95W LINEA 14N95W A

13N96W … INCLUYENDO Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE 30 A 35

KT . OLEAJE DE 9 A 14 FT . Otro punto de 60 nm de una 16N95W l�nea al

14N95W A 12N97W N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 30 KT . SEAS A 11 FT .

. SINOPSIS Y PRON�STICO .

. DE 10N A 19N 130W W DE VIENTO 20 kt o inferior . SEAS A 9 FT

EN NW hincharse.

0.24 HORA PREVISTA DE 12N A 16N 135W W DE VIENTO 20 kt o inferior .

OLEAJE A 8 FT EN NW hincharse.

0.36 hora Pron�stico VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

CONVECCI�N V�LIDO 1500 UTC MIERCOLES 23 de octubre …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL RAYMOND … DISPERSOS MODERADA A FUERTE DENTRO

140 NM E semic�rculo.

. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCIA ZONE / vaguada monz�nica …

Vaguada monz�nica 10N85W A 11N94W luego vuelve a sonar DE 12N108W A

10N130W . ITCZ 10N130W A 11N137W . DISPERSADAS MODERADA A FUERTE

DENTRO DE 120 NM N y 90 NM S DE EJE ENTRE 115W Y 133W .

DGS . Pronosticador . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA HONOLULU HI

PAC�FICO NORTE ECUADOR A 30N ENTRE 140W Y 160E

SINOPSIS V�LIDO 1200 UTC 23 de octubre 2013 .

24 HORAS Pron�stico v�lido 1200 UTC 24 de octubre 2013 .

48 HORAS Pron�stico v�lido 1200 UTC 25 de octubre 2013 .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

. NINGUNO.

. SINOPSIS Y PRON�STICO .

. FRENTE DE 29N140W A 23N144W 20N147W PARA M�VILES E LENTAMENTE .

0.24 hora Pron�stico FRONT disipado.

0.24 hora Pron�stico FRENTE DE 30N175W A 28N175E A 30N167E .

VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT DENTRO DE 120 NM E DE FRENTE N DE 29N .

0.48 hora Pron�stico FRENTE DE 30N165W A 27N179W A 30N164E .

VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT DENTRO DE 120 NM E DE FRENTE N DE 28N .

. RIDGE DE 30N162W A 26N180W A 29N160E MOVIMIENTO SE 10 KT .

. RIDGE DE 30N159W A 25N155W A 22N149W CASI ESTACIONARIO .

. VIENTOS 20 KT O MENOS POR EL RESTO DEL AREA DE PREVISION .

. OLEAJE DE 9 A 11 pies, con 163E DE ENTRE 15N Y 27N .

0.24 hora Pron�stico SEAS 8 FT O PRON�STICOS DE �REA MENOS entero.

0.48 hora Pron�stico OLEAJE DE 9 A 10 PIES N DE 29N ENTRE 164W Y

169W .

SEAS . 8 FT O MENOS POR EL RESTO DEL AREA DE PREVISION .

Lluvias MODERADOS . AISLADOS zona delimitada por 18N160E 10N174E

13N177W 06N177W 02N168E 08N160E .

. ZCIT DE 08N140W A 07N153W A 05N165W . AISLADO MODERADO

Lluvias dentro de 90 NM de la ZCIT W DE 155W y E 143 W .

$ $

. PRONOSTICADOR Powell. HONOLULU

FIN

No use cualquier informaci�n en este sitio para las decisiones de vida o muerte. Toda la informaci�n se concibe como complementario a las fuentes oficiales. Por favor consulte el sitio web de la agencia meteorol�gica / oficial del gobierno de su pa�s por las advertencias locales, avisos y boletines .

France: ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Level 1 for parts of France valid until Sun 201013 06:00Z. Isolated tornado events, Heavy rain, large hail possible – 191013 1325z

Storm Forecast

(Scroll down for French translation) (Faites d�filer vers le bas pour la traduction fran�aise)

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 19 Oct 2013 06:00 to Sun 20 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 18 Oct 2013 16:17
Forecaster: TUSCHY

 

A level 1 was issued for parts of C France mainly for isolated large hail, excessive rain and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for a small part of S France mainly for isolated large hail and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS

A flat and transient omega-like pattern has established over Europe. A weakening upper trough over SE Europe remains in place with only a low-end motion to the east. Numerous vortices over the far E-Atlantic steer a warm/humid air mass far to the NE while a stout branch of the polar vortex over N-Norway/Sweden advects a cold airmass to the south. A deep baroclinic zone (e.g. in excess of 20 K difference at 500 hPa between Germany/N-Norway) is the result with an evolving 40 m/s mid-level streak over the Baltic Sea.

This kind of pattern results in a bisection of Europe from the North Sea to Greece. Areas to the east will feel the influx of cool/cold and dry continental air from the N whereas areas to the west see a gradual recovery of moisture, both due to advection of a modified subtropical air mass and a moistening W-Mediterranean air mass. Hence thunderstorm probs. over E/NE Europe remain confined to offshore and coastal areas with isolated/weakly electrified storms. Scattered and stronger storms however occur over far W Europe.

DISCUSSION

… Ireland and United Kingdom …

Ingredients for thunderstorms will be in place with some iffy signals however. Behind a ENE-ward moving front (already transforming from a cold front into an occlusion from N to S) seasonable BL moisture remains in place. Mid/upper jets also reveal a good placement for some lift in addition to a weak vort.max. crossing the area of interest from SW to NE between 12-18Z. However, forecast soundings show a meager depth of the BL moisture with constant drying above. Therefore onshore turbulent mixing next to some temporal heating lower confidence in adequate CAPE build-up well inland. Coastal areas (SW-ward facing) will see best moisture and at least 300 to 700 J/kg SBCAPE. Some veering in the lowest 2 km AGL is present along the coastal areas with 50-100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE, so an isolated spout/short-lived tornado is possible. Effective PWs also approach 20 mm, which could lead to some heavy rain and 15-20 m/s 850 hpa flow should ensure gusty winds with stronger convection.

We expanded the lightning areas far offshore. Despite more hostile conditions for electrified storms with this type of air mass, approaching cooler mid-level air should increase the CAPE disperal in the mid-level graupel layer a bit. Hence confidence in more activity compared to yesterday has increased.

We also splayed the eastern part of the 15-% lightning area all the way to Denmark to cover a few elevated thunderstorm events beyond 12Z. This also includes parts of N France . This activity will be non-severe.

… S/C-France …

Odds increase to see an heavy and convectively enhanced rainfall event between Marseille and Montpellier .

A very moist air mass is in place over the far W-Mediterranean with no serious frontal intrusion forecast. Persistent SW-erly mid/upper flow and falling surface pressure to the W/NW should assist in a constant onshore flow and hence better onshore moisture over the area of interest.

However, position and strength of the mid/upper jets are not yet favorable during most of this forecast period but improve after midnight. The same with the LLJ, which showes some strengthening during the overnight hours. Hence, expect mainly onshore convection during daytime hours.

We issued a 50-% lightning area and a level 1 as persistent upslope flow towards the Massif Central could induce a cluster with isolated large hail (20 m/s DLS).

We also don’t want to exclude an isolated tornado event with LCLs below 1 km and enhanced LL shear. Interaction of mid/upper dynamics and aforementioned LLJ could also support a temporal back-building with excessive rain the main risk. Therefore the level 1 was expanded far inland.

Beyond 00Z, environmental conditions improve for a developing coastal cluster with back-building tendencies. With 20-25 m/s DLS and increasing SRH, any coastal storm should become organized and probably supercellular. Large hail and an isolated tornado will be the main hazards.

Current thoughts with late development of that cluster preclude an excessive rainfall – level issuance for now. In case of earlier CI, excessive rain will be added to the current level 1 wording.

French (Translated by Google)

tempête Pr�visions

tempête Pr�visions
Valable : sam 19 octobre 2013 06h00 à Sun le 20 octobre 2013 06:00 UTC
Publi� : Vendredi 18 octobre 2013 16:17
Pr�visionniste : TUSCHY

Un niveau 1 a �t� �mis pour une partie de C France principalement pour de la grosse grêle isol�, l’excès de pluie et une manifestation de tornades isol�es.

Un niveau 1 a �t� d�livr� pour une petite partie de S France principalement pour isol� gros grêlons et une manifestation de tornade isol�.

SYNOPSIS

Un modèle plat et transitoire om�ga -like a mis en place en Europe. Un affaiblissement creux en altitude sur l’Europe du Sud reste en place avec seulement un mouvement de bas de gamme à l’est. De nombreux tourbillons plus loin le E- Atlantique dirigent une masse d’air chaud / humide loin au NE tandis qu’une grosse branche du vortex polaire sur N-Norway/Sweden advecte une masse d’air froid vers le sud. Une zone barocline profonde (par exemple au-delà de 20 diff�rence de K à 500 hPa entre l’Allemagne / N- Norvège) est le r�sultat d’un 40 m / s �volutive s�rie à mi-niveau sur la mer Baltique .
Ce genre de r�sultats de motif dans une dichotomie de l’Europe à partir de la mer du Nord à la Grèce. R�gions à l’est se sentiront à l’afflux de froid / froid et sec air continental de la N tandis que les zones à l’ouest voient une reprise progressive de l’humidit� , à la fois en raison d’ advection d’une masse d’air subtropical modifi� et une masse d’air W -m�diterran�enne d’humidification . D’où probs orage. sur E / NE Europe de rester confin�e à des zones extrac�tières et c�tières avec isol� / tempêtes faiblement �lectrifi�es. �pars et plus forts orages se produisent cependant plus loin W Europe.

DISCUSSION

… L’Irlande et le Royaume-Uni …

Ingr�dients pour les orages seront mis en place avec certains signaux iffy cependant . Derrière un front mouvant ENE- Ward ( d�jà transformer à partir d’un front froid dans une occlusion de N à S) humidit� BL de saison reste en place. Jets milieu / haut r�vèlent �galement un bon placement pour certains ascenseur en plus d’un vort.max faible. traversant la zone d’int�rêt du SO vers le NE entre 12 – 18Z . Cependant, les sondages de pr�visions montrent une profondeur maigre de l’humidit� BL avec s�chage constante au-dessus . Par cons�quent onshore m�lange turbulent à c�t� de certains chauffage temporal inf�rieur confiance suffisante CAPE accumulation et l’int�rieur des terres . Les zones c�tières (face SW- Ward) verront mieux l’humidit� et au moins 300 à 700 J / kg SBCAPE . Certains virant au moins 2 km AGL est pr�sent le long des zones c�tières 50-100 J / kg 0-3 km CAPE , si une tornade bec / courte dur�e isol�e est possible. PG efficaces abordent �galement 20 mm , ce qui pourrait conduire à une forte pluie et 15-20 m / s 850 hpa d�bit devrait assurer des rafales de vent à convection forte.

Nous avons �largi les domaines de la foudre loin des c�tes . Malgr� des conditions plus hostiles pour les tempêtes �lectrifi�es avec ce type de masse d’air , approchant refroidisseur d’air de niveau moyen devrait augmenter le CAPE Disperal dans la couche graupel mi- niveau un peu. D’où la confiance dans plus d’activit� par rapport à hier a augment�.

Nous avons �galement �vas�e de la partie orientale de la 15 – % de la superficie de l’�clair tout le chemin au Danemark pour couvrir quelques �v�nements d’orage �lev�s au-delà de 12Z . Cela inclut �galement des parties de N France. Cette activit� sera sans gravit� .

… S / C- France …

Les chances augmentent de voir un �v�nement de pluie abondante et convection renforc�e entre Marseille et Montpellier.

Une masse d’air très humide est en place sur l’extrême W -m�diterran�en sans grave pr�visions intrusion frontal. Persistent SW -rectement mi / d�bit sup�rieur et chute de la pression de surface à l’ W / NW devrait contribuer à un flux constant onshore et l’humidit� donc mieux à terre sur la zone d’int�rêt . Toutefois, la position et la force des jets milieu / haut ne sont pas encore favorable pendant la majeure partie de cette p�riode de pr�vision mais s’am�liorent après minuit. La même chose avec le LLJ , qui showes un renforcement pendant les heures de nuit . Par cons�quent, s’attendre à convection principalement à terre pendant la journ�e . Nous avons �mis un 50 – zone de foudre % et un niveau 1 en �coulement ascendant persistant vers le Massif Central pourrait induire un cluster avec de gros grêlons isol� ( 20 m / s DLS ) . Nous ne voulons pas exclure un �v�nement de tornade isol� avec LCL en dessous de 1 km et un cisaillement accru LL . Interaction des dynamiques milieu / haut et LLJ susmentionn� pourrait �galement soutenir un arrière – b�timent temporelle avec l’excès de pluie , le risque principal . Par cons�quent, le niveau 1 a �t� �tendu loin dans les terres .

Au-delà de 00Z , les conditions environnementales s’am�liorent pour un cluster c�tier en d�veloppement avec des tendances arrière – b�timent. Avec 20-25 m / s DLS et l’augmentation de la SSR , une tempête c�tière doit s’organiser et probablement supercellular . Gros grêlons et une tornade isol� seront les principaux dangers. R�flexions en cours avec le d�veloppement tardif de ce cluster empêcher un excès de pr�cipitations – �mission de niveau pour l’instant. En cas de CI plus t�t , l’excès de pluie sera ajout� à l’ actuel libell� de niveau 1 .

Japan: Tropical Depression 27W 200900Z near 24.3N 145.2E, moving NW at 20 knots (JTWC) Iwo To be aware – 201013 1020z

Tropical Depression 27W

IWO TO BE AWARE!

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)



 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

• Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 200900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

—

WARNING POSITION:

200600Z — NEAR 23.6N 145.8E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 20 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 145.8E

—

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

201800Z — 26.3N 143.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS

—

24 HRS, VALID AT:

210600Z — 28.9N 142.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

—

REMARKS:

200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 145.2E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257

NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS

UNRAVELED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO BE GREATLY

SHEARED SOUTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH

OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG 30-40 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

(VWS). THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT WAS SUSTAINING THE REMNANT

CONVECTION HAS WANED, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD

INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EVEN STRONGER VWS,

DISSIPATING BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY

THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY

MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

AT 200600Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26W (FRANCISCO)

WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //

NNNN

 

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Japan Marine Warnings (Click image for source)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 200600

WARNING 200600.

WARNING VALID 210600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 925 HPA

AT 18.3N 137.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 20.3N 136.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 22.4N 134.6E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 24.6N 132.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

�

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 200600

WARNING AND SUMMARY 200600.

WARNING VALID 210600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA

AT 10.0N 161.7E MARSHALLS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 12.2N 159.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

GALE WARNING.

EXPECTED EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS PREVAILING

OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 142E 45N 149E 45N 156E 37N 156E 38N 142E

42N 142E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA

AT 20.6N 146.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION POOR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

SUMMARY.

LOW 1012 HPA AT 33N 137E EAST 15 KT.

LOW 1010 HPA AT 59N 158E EAST 10 KT.

HIGH 1032 HPA AT 42N 157E ESE 10 KT.

REMARKS.

TYPHOON 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 925 HPA AT 18.3N 137.3E : SEE TROPICAL

CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 200600

2:31:11:11:00

BT

PAN PAN=

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

AT 1015UTC OCT.20 2013=

MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC OCT. 20=

FORECAST VALID 0600UTC OCT. 21=

WARNNING=

SUPER TY FRANCISCO 1327(1327) 915HPA AT 18.4N

137.3E MOVING NNW 12KM/H AND MAX WINDS 62M/S NEAR

CENTER (SEAS UP TO 13.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS

WINDS 350KM AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS 150KM AND

FORECAST FOR 210600UTC AT 20.8N 136.3E 920HPA

MAX WINDS 60M/S NEAR CENTER=

SUMMARY=

NE WINDS FROM 06 TO 12M/S GUST 16M/S SEAS UP TO

2.0M OVER SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART

OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI

CHANNEL AND BEIBU GULF AND MID-WEST PART OF SOUTH

CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER

SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND

NORTHEAST AND MID-EAST PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 13 TO 22M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA

SOUTH OF JAPAN=

WINDS FROM 21 TO 36M/S SEAS UP TO 8.0M OVER SEA

WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS=

WINDS FROM 37 TO 62M/S SEAS UP TO 13.0M OVER SEA

NEAR CENTER OF FRANCISCO=

HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SEA WEST

OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA AND NORTH

PART OF THAILAND GULF AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA

SUNDA STRAIT=

FORECAST=

NE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO

3.5M OVER SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN

STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL=

WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER JAPAN

SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=

NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND

NORTHEAST AND MID-EAST PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER

NORTHWEST AND MID-WEST PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M

OVER SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA NORTHEAST

OF THE PHILIPPINES=

WINDS FROM 21 TO 36M/S SEAS UP TO 8.0M OVER SEA

WEST OF NORTH MARIANA ISLANDS AND SEA WEST OF BONIN

ISLANDS=

WINDS FROM 37 TO 62M/S SEAS UP TO 13.0M OVER SEA

NEAR CENTER OF FRANCISCO=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 200600

40:1:31:11:01:00

HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING

WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

WARNINGS

GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS) AND THE

TAIWAN STRAIT.

SYNOPSIS (200600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST

UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON AND

SUPER TYPHOON FRANCISCO (1327), GALE FORCE WINDS ARE

EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECS AND THE TAIWAN STRAIT.

SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS

SEAS 6 M OVER THE GALES WARNING AREAS.

SWELL NE 3 M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.

THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER

SCATTERED SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS (TS)

OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AND SEAS NEAR THE MALAY PENINSULA.

ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH

CHINA SEA.

SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY

VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本：知っておくために20ノット（ JTWC ）硫黄島で北西に移動する熱帯低気圧24.3N 145.2E付近27W 200900Z 、 – 201013 1020z

熱帯低気圧の27W
IWOは認識しておく！

（日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン） （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

（画像： wunderground.com ） 5日間の予報（ソース画像をクリック）

（画像： wunderground.com ）衛星（ソース画像をクリック）

Ð � Z

合同台風警報センター（ JTWC ）

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN31 PGTW 200900

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /

SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /

RMKS /

1 。熱帯低気圧27W （トゥエンティ）警告NR 005

NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧

MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

—

警告POSITION ：

200600Z — NEAR 23.6N 145.8E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 20 KTS AT 310 DEGREES

020 NM以内の正確な位置

POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に

PRESENT WIND配分：

025 KT 、突風035 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

WATERに比べて大きな熱帯低気圧AS散逸

23.6N 145.8E ： POSITを繰り返す

—

予測：

AT VALID 12時間：

201800Z — 26.3N 143.3E

020 KT 、突風030 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

WATERに比べて大きな熱帯低気圧として散逸

24人事POSITへのベクトル：340 DEG / 14 KTS

—

AT VALID 24時間：

210600Z — 28.9N 142.2E

020 KT 、突風030 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

WATERに比べて大きな熱帯低気圧として散逸

—

備考：

24.3N 145.2E NEAR 200900Z POSITION 。

熱帯低気圧27W （トゥエンティ）は、 LOCATED約257

NM TO IWO 、日本東南東は、 20℃北西追跡して

過去半時間以上ノット。 ANIMATEDマルチスペクトル衛星

IMAGERY完全に露出低レベルの循環センターがいることを示しています

ASSOCIATED対流が大幅にされ続けた、AS解明

南方せん断。 UPPERレベルの分析は、システムがSOUTHであることを示し

STRONG 30-40 KNOT VERTICALウインドシアの分野でRIDGE軸の

（ VWS ） 。レムナントを維持WAS赤道が流出

ANIMATED水蒸気IMAGERY ONに証明されるように対流が、衰退していたとして。

TD 27Wは、 ITをさらに極方向トラックとして急速に減衰すると予想され

COOLER海面温度とさらに強くVWS INTO 、

TAU 12で散逸。これは、このシステムでFINAL WARNING IS

JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI 。 SYSTEMが密接BE WILL

再生の兆候を監視した。最大有義波高

200600Z AT 10 FEETです。熱帯低気圧26W （ FRANCISCO ）を参照してください

SIX – HOURLY UPDATESに対する警告（ WTPN33 PGTW ） 。 / /

NNNN

MARITIME

（画像： JMA ）は、日本の海洋からの警告（ソース画像をクリック）
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21は200600をRJTD

WARNING 200600 。

VALID 210600警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

台風警報。

TYPHOON 1327年サンフランシスコ（ 1327 ） 925 HPA

18.3N ATフィリピンOF 137.3E SEA EASTはNORTHWEST 07ノットMOVING 。

良いポジション。

MAXは、中央付近の100ノットの風。

50 KNOTのWINDS OVER 70マイルの半径。

30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は240マイルNORTH半円AND 210マイル

ELSEWHERE 。

70マイルの半径20.3N 136.1E AT 210600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

925 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 100ノット。

EXTENDED見通し。

110マイルの半径22.4N 134.6E AT 220600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

925 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 100ノット。

160マイルの半径24.6N 132.9E AT 230600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

930 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 95ノット。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 200600

WARNINGと要約200600 。

VALID 210600警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

GALE警告。

熱帯低気圧1004 HPA

ゆっくりWESTSOUTHWESTをMOVING 10.0N 161.7EマーシャルAT 。

POSITIONのFAIR 。

MAXは、中心部に近い30ノットの風。

EXPECTED MAXのWINDS NEXT 24時間の中心部に近い35ノット。

120マイルの半径12.2N 159.8E AT 210600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

GALE警告。

実勢EXPECTED北東WINDS TO東風30〜45 KNOTS

42N 142E 45N 149E 45N 156E 37N 156E 38N 142Eに囲まれWATERS OVER

NEXT 24時間42N 142E 。

警告。

熱帯低気圧1004 HPA

20.6N 146.5E AT小笠原松濤はWEST 10ノットの移動。

POORを配置します。

MAXは、中心部に近い30ノットの風。

概要。

33N 137E EAST 15 KT AT LOW 1012 HPA 。

59N 158E EAST 10 KT AT LOW 1010 HPA 。

42N 157E ESE 10 KT AT HIGH 1032 HPA 。

REMARKS 。

TYPHOON 1327年サンフランシスコ（ 1327 ） 18.3N 137.3E AT 925 HPAは： TROPICAL SEE

CYCLONE警告。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 200600

2:31:11:11:00

BT

PAN PAN =

NAVAREA XI （IOR ）のメッセージは、 NMC BEIJINGによって発行された

1015UTC 10月20日2013年= AT

メッセージは= EVERY 06 HOURSに更新されます

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC 10月20 =

VALID 0600UTC 10月を見込んでいます。 21 =

=をWARNNING

18.4N AT SUPER TY FRANCISCO 1327 （ 1327 ） 915HPA

137.3E 、近い北北西12キロ/ HとMAX WINDS 62M / SをMOVING

CENTER （ SEAS最大13.0M ） AND 30KTSの半径

WINDS 350キロと半径150キロ50KTS WINDS OF AND

20.8N 136.3E 920HPA AT 210600UTCの見通し

MAXのWINDS 60M / Sセンターの近く=

概要=

06 FROM 12M / Sガスト16M / S SEAS UP TO TO NEのWINDS

黄海北部の南部OVER 2.0M

東シナ海と海、台湾の東と橋の

チャネルとトンキン湾とSOUTH OF MID- WEST PART

CHINA SEA =

08 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NEのWINDS

SOUTHの東シナ海と台湾海峡の一部

北東部と南シナ海MID- EAST PARTS =

海の上に3.5M 13〜 22M / S SEAS TO NE WINDS UP

JAPAN OF SOUTH =

21 FROM UP 36M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 8.0M TO WINDS

NORTHマリアナ諸島の西=

37からUP 62M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 13.0M TO WINDS

FRANCISCO = OF NEAR CENTER

SEA WEST OVER 10KM THAN LESS HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY

NORTHマリアナ諸島とアンダマン海と北

タイ湾とスマトラ海西PART

スンダ海峡=

FORECAST =

14から最大20M / Sガスト24M / SのSEAS TO NEのWINDS

東シナ海、台湾の南部OVER 3.5M

海峡、台湾の海東とバシー海峡=

12 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO JAPAN OVER 2.5M TO WINDS

JAPAN = OF SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA SOUTH

12から最大16M / Sガスト20M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

NORTHの東シナ海の一部OVER 2.5M

北東部と南シナ海MID- EAST PARTS =

08 FROM UP 2.0M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

北西部と南シナ海MID- WEST PARTS =

12 FROM UP 3.5M TO 20M / Sガスト24M / SのSEAS TO WINDS

琉球SEA EAST AND SEA NORTHEAST OVER

フィリピンOF =

21 FROM UP 36M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 8.0M TO WINDS

NORTHマリアナ諸島と小笠原海WEST OF WEST

ISLANDS =

37からUP 62M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 13.0M TO WINDS

FRANCISCO = OF NEAR CENTER
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 0600

WWHK82 VHHH 200600

40:1:31:11:01:00

HONG KONG気象サービスは、次の機能を提供

WARNING /南シナ海のための情報。

警告

東シナ海（ECS ） AND OVER強風

台湾海峡。

SYNOPSIS （ 200600UTC ）と24時間対応の予測

コンバインド北東モンスーンの影響とアンダー

SUPER TYPHOONサンフランシスコ（ 1327年）は、強風は

ECSと台湾海峡に影響を与えると予想。

SIGNIFICANT HIGH / SWELL SEAS

SEASウェールズWARNINGエリアOVER 6 M 。

TAIWAN NEAR SEAS ANDルソンNEAR SEAS OVER NE 3 Mを膨潤させる。

雷雨/悪天候

スコールの散在（ SQ ） SHOWERS （SH）と雷雨（TS）

タイ湾とマレー半島NEAR SEAS OVER 。

SOUTHの南部の上に隔離SQ SHとTS

CHINA SEA 。

海霧/視界

DOWN SQ SHとTS 2000 Mへの可視性。

生きるか死ぬかの決定のためにこのサイト上のすべての情報を使用しないでください。すべての情報は、公式のソースへの補足として意図されています。親切にあなたの国の公式の天候を参照してください

Japan: Tropical Storm (26W) Francisco 250900Z near 29.4N 134.0E, moving NE at 15 knots (JTWC) Heavy rain expected across Japan – 251013 0945z

Tropical Storm (26W) Francisco (JTWC)

Severe Tropical Storm (JMA)

��The threat..” “..through Friday and Saturday will be the drenching amount of rainfall Francisco will produce across Japan.”.. “Shikoku threat of flooding and landslides continues”

“..Izu Oshima is especially prone to the storm>>” ( Westernpacificweather)

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

(Image: JTWC) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: JTWC) Satellite (Click image for source)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

TORNADO RISK

Okinawa

(Image: JMA) Okinawa on radar (Click image for source & latest animation)

STS 1327 (FRANCISCO)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 25 October 2013

<Analyses at 25/06 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N28�35′(28.6�)
	E132�30′(132.5�)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	E190km(100NM)
	W110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	E390km(210NM)
	W330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N30�20′(30.3�)
	E136�40′(136.7�)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure	975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
Storm warning area	SE280km(150NM)
	NW200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N32�30′(32.5�)
	E142�50′(142.8�)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 50km/h(28kt)
Central pressure	990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N36�00′(36.0�)
	E158�00′(158.0�)
Direction and speed of movement	ENE 60km/h(33kt)
Central pressure	1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle	390km(210NM)

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

END

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

• Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 250900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 038

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

—

WARNING POSITION:

250600Z — NEAR 28.9N 133.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 045 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 133.0E

—

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

251800Z — 30.7N 137.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 32 KTS

—

24 HRS, VALID AT:

260600Z — 33.6N 143.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

EXTRATROPICAL

—

REMARKS:

250900Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 134.0E.

TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM

SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z

IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO

TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //

NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Oct, 2013 6:00 GMT GMT

Tropical Storm FRANCISCO (26W) currently located near 25.9 N 129.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
����Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other Reports

Typhoon Francisco Brings Record Rainfall & Lekima hits Outer Islands

Published on October 25, 2013 by robspeta (Meteorologist for NHK World TV in Tokyo) // Westernpacificweather

�Typhoon Francisco has brought nearly three times the normal amount of rainfall for the month of October to portions of Shikoku today resulting in the evacuation over over 500 households and the continues threat of flooding and landslides.

Thus far the storm has produced winds up to 146kph have been seen on Daito Jima while on the Main island of Okinawa 97kph wind gust were recorded. At the Kadena AB where a good bulk of our readers are winds up to 40kts or 75kph has been seen with sustained winds lingering just under Tropical Storm Strength.

The threat though through Friday and Saturday will be the drenching amount of rainfall Francisco will produce across Japan.

Already several landslides have been reported on the Kii Pennisula and in Yoron Kyushu 5,500 people from 2,500 households had to be evacuated. In Kochi Shikoku where over 500mm on rainfall has occured in the past 24hrs over 500 homes have been evacuated due to rising waters.

JMA TRACK

These rains have been due to a Stationary front north of Francisco that has set up with the support of a upper level trough to the north and moisture being sucked in from the typhoon to the south.

With Francisco passing off the coastline on Friday it will add to the heavy rainfall that has already occurred bringing an additional 300mm across the region.

By the time Francisco reaches Tokyo it will be well off shore, yet heavy rainfall is still possible through Friday and Saturday morning. The good news is that the rains should quickly taper off through Saturday evening leaving rapidly improving conditions behind it.

Tokyo is not expected to see damaging winds but there could be a few reports near the water front over 50kph during the overnight hours.� Wide Spread rainfall will be around 100mm across the Kanto area through Saturday afternoon. The worst of the weather in the Kanto area will be near coastal areas and including Izu Oshima.

Izu Oshima is the island where rescue workers continue to search for bodies following last weeks devastating Typhoon which caused a massive landslide is especially prone to the storm.

The areas that were destroyed by last weeks landslide are now lacking vegation to hold the soil in place as heavy rains start to batter the island in to Saturday morning. This means there is a risk of yet more mudslides.

Japan Radar

Nursing facilities and clinics on the island are set to be closed as a precaution ahead of the storm.

Oshima Town officials have evacuated about 550 elderly and disabled people from the island. The rest of the 2,300 residents that reside on the island have been advised to evacuate in fear of more landslides.

For information on preparations people are making ahead of this storm at Fukushima Daiichi please click here

As always Westpacwx is not an official agency. We will never pretend to be. Please check your official agency for information on these storms and the official WMO approved track. In this case JMA not JTWC.�� Westernpacificweather

Residents of Izu Oshima are being advised to evacuate the island today in fear of more landslides following Wipha.

� Robert Speta (@robertspeta) October 25, 2013

Izu Oshima islanders advised to evacuate

Town officials on the island of Izu Oshima, south of Tokyo, have advised more than 2,000 residents in 2 mudslide-ravaged areas to evacuate their homes.

The call on Friday comes as another storm approaches the island.

On October 16th, Typhoon Wipha delivered heavy rain to Izu Oshima, triggering mudslides. 31 people were killed and 13 are still missing.

Town officials fear more downpours due to the approach of severe tropical storm, Francisco, which may loosen the ground further and heighten the risk of more mudslides.

About 2,300 residents in 1,200 households live in the risk areas.

Town officials say they may issue an evacuation advisory for the rest of the island’s areas, depending on the rainfall.

Oct. 25, 2013 – Updated 04:02 UTC

(Video credit: worldnewsdepartment)

Fukushima plant struggles with typhoon threat

The operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant is racing to secure storage space for tainted rainwater as another powerful typhoon approaches.

Tokyo Electric Power Company has begun moving the rainwater into underground pools once deemed too leaky. The water is the result of typhoons and downpours that have filled barriers around radioactive waste water tanks.

TEPCO has been storing the most contaminated rainwater in tanks and in the basement of a turbine building. But with Typhoon Francisco set to hit Japan�s mainland over the weekend, the tanks are full.

Japan�s nuclear regulator has approved moving the tainted water to 3 underground pools. The pools have a total capacity of about 9,000 tons.

TEPCO stopped using the pools after similar models leaked in April. The utility now says it has no other option but to use them.

The utility also says it found 140,000 becquerels per liter of Beta-ray emitting radioactivity in an onsite ditch on Wednesday. The radioactivity has doubled since the previous day. TEPCO says it is transferring the contaminated water to a tank.

Oct. 23, 2013 � Updated 20:39 UTC

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 250600

WARNING 250600.

WARNING VALID 260600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

STORM WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 965 HPA

AT 28.6N 132.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 30.3N 136.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 32.5N 142.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 36.0N 158.0E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

�

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 250600

WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.

WARNING VALID 260600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA

AT 45N 179W SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.

WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND

400 MILES ELSEWHERE.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA

AT 45N 137E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.

WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND

300 MILES ELSEWHERE.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 130E 27N 129E 20N 125E 21N 116E 30N 122E 34N

121E 37N 126E 34N 126E 34N 130E 30N 130E.

GALE WARNING.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER

WATERS BOUNDED BY 51N 162E 60N 170E 60N 180E 52N 180E 51N 162E.

SUMMARY.

HIGH 1032 HPA AT 43N 114E SE 10 KT.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 55N 148E EAST 10 KT.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 46N 154E ESE 10 KT.

HIGH 1016 HPA AT 21N 170E WEST SLOWLY.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 131E TO 32N 134E 33N 137E 32N 142E.

REMARKS.

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA (1328) 920 HPA AT 26.9N 144.4E : SEE TROPICAL

CYCLONE WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 965 HPA AT 28.6N 132.5E :

SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

 

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 250600

2:31:11:11:00

BT

PAN PAN=

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

AT 1015UTC OCT.25 2013=

MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC OCT. 25=

FORECAST VALID 0600UTC OCT. 26=

WARNNING=

STS FRANCISCO 1327(1327) 982HPA AT 28.8N 133.0E

MOVING ENE 32KM/H AND MAX WINDS 25M/S NEAR CENTER

(SEAS UP TO 6.5M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 280KM

AND FORECAST FOR 260600UTC AT 32.7N 143.5E 988HPA

MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER=

SUPERTY LEKIMA 1328(1328) 935HPA AT 26.9N 144.4E

MOVING NNE 45KM/H AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER

(SEAS UP TO 11.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 400KM

AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS 150KM AND FORECAST FOR

260600UTC AT 36.7N 150.9E 955HPA MAX WINDS 42M/S

NEAR CENTER=

SUMMARY=

N/NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER YELLOW SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND

BASHI CHANNEL AND NORTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NLY WINDS FROM 14 TO 22M/S SEAS UP TO 4.5M OVER

NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER

SOUTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT=

NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.8M OVER

WEST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

WINDS FROM 14 TO 23M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M OVER SEA

EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN

AND SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS=

HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SEA

SOUTH OF JAPAN AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS

AND SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA

AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND

SULAWESI SEA AND LAUT MALUKU=

FORECAST=

NLY BACK WLY WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP 1.5M

OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=

N/NW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP

2.5M OVER YELLOW SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND JAPAN

SEA=

N/NE WINDS FROM 14 TO 20M/S GUST 21 TO 25M/S SEAS

UP TO 3.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT

AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND BASHI CHANNEL=

NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER

NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER

WEST AND MID-EAST PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

WINDS FROM 18 TO 24M/S GUST 25M/S SEAS UP TO

5.5M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN AND SEA EAST OF

RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS=

 

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本： 15ノット全国の予想（ JTWC ）豪雨でNEを移動する熱帯性低気圧（ 26W ）フランシスコ250900Z 29.4N 134.0E付近、 – 251013 0945z

熱帯性低気圧（ 26W ）サンフランシスコ（ JTWC ）
重度の熱帯性低気圧（ JMA ）

” …脅威..” “..金曜日と土曜日スルーフランシスコは、日本全体で生産する降雨の灌注量になります。 ” .. “洪水や地滑りの四国の脅威が”続け

（ Westernpacificweather ） “..伊豆は嵐>>を特に受けやすいOshimais “

（日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン） （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

（画像： JTWC ） 5日間の予報（ソース画像をクリック）

（画像： JTWC ）衛星（ソース画像をクリック）

気象庁

すべての熱帯サイクロン
現在有効な警告/勧告

TORNADOのリスク

沖縄

（画像： JMA ）レーダー上の沖縄（ソース＆最新アニメーション画像をクリック）
STS 1327 （ FRANCISCO ）
6時50分UTC 、 2013年10月25日に発行される
25/06 UTC>で<Analyses
1:43 –
強度 –
中心位置N28 �35 ‘ （28.6 �）
E132 �30 ‘ （ 132.5 �）
動きNEの毎時30キロ（ 15カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧965hPa
中央30メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 60カラット）
最大突風スピード45メートル/秒（ 85カラット）
50カラット風の面積以上E190km （ 100NM ）
W110km （ 60nmの）
30カラット風の面積以上E390km （波長210nm ）
W330km （ 180nm以下）
18分の25 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率サークルN30 �20 ‘の中心位置（30.3 �）
E136 �40 ‘ （ 136.7 �）
動きENE毎時35キロ（ 20カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧975hPa
中央30メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 60カラット）
最大突風スピード45メートル/秒（ 85カラット）
確率サークル90キロの半径（ 50NM ）
ストーム警告エリアSE280km （ 150nmの）
NW200km （ 110nmの）
26/06 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
確率円の中心位置N32 �30 ‘ （32.5 �）
E142 �50 ‘ （ 142.8 �）
動きENE毎時50キロ（ 28カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧990hPa
中央23メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 45カラット）
最大突風スピード35メートル/秒（ 65カラット）
確率160キロの円の半径（ 85NM ）
27/06 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率円の中心位置N36 � 00 ‘ （36.0 �）
E158 �00 ‘（ 158.0 �）
動きENE毎時60キロ（ 33カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧1000hPa
最大持続風速18メートル/秒（ 35カラット）
最大突風スピード25メートル/秒（ 50カラット）
確率390キロの円の半径（波長210nm ）

単位：
1KT （ノット）=毎時1.852キロ= 0.5144メートル/秒
1NM （海里）= 1.852キロ

END
合同台風警報センター（ JTWC ）

Google Earthのグラフィックオーバーレイ

WTPN33 PGTW 250900

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /

SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /

RMKS /

1 。 TROPICAL STORM 26W （ FRANCISCO ）警告NR 038

NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧

MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

—

警告POSITION ：

250600Z — NEAR 28.9N 133.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 15 KTS AT 045 DEGREES

020 NM以内の正確な位置

POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に

PRESENT WIND配分：

050 KT 、突風065 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

28.9N 133.0E ： POSITを繰り返す

—

予測：

AT VALID 12時間：

251800Z — 30.7N 137.1E

040 KT 、突風050 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯BECOMING

034 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24人事POSITへのベクトル： 060 DEG / 32 KTS

—

AT VALID 24時間：

260600Z — 33.6N 143.9E

035 KT 、突風045 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え

OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY

温帯

—

備考：

29.4N 134.0E NEAR 250900Z POSITION 。

TROPICAL STORM 26W （ FRANCISCO ）が、約513 NMのLOCATED

横須賀、 JAPAN 、南西は15ノットで北東追跡して

過去半時間以上。 250600Zで最大有義波高

21フィートです。 251500Z 、 252100Z AND 260300Z AT NEXT警告。参照する

SIX – HOURLY更新用TYPHOON 28W （ LEKIMA ）警告（ WTPN32 PGTW ） 。 / /

NNNN
TSR logoNW太平洋： 10月24日に発行される嵐の警告、 2013 GMT GMT 6:00

トロピカルストームサンフランシスコ（ 26W ）は、現在25.9の近くにN 129.8 Eが与えられたリードタイム（ s）で、次の可能性（複数可）に土地を打つと予測されている：

イエローアラート市（s）とタウン（S）
沖縄（26.3 N 、 127.8 E ）
TSのための確率は現在60％である

注意してください
イエローアラート（高架） CAT 1以上〜10 ％と30 ％の確率、又はTSの間に50％以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧くださ&#12356;

ストームトラッカー地図
その他のレポート
台風フランシスコは、記録的な雨量をもたらす＆ Lekimaアウター諸島に当たる

robspeta （東京のNHKワールドTVのための気象学者） / / Westernpacificweatherによって2013年10月25日に公開

“台風フランシスコは、500世帯以上にわたって避難の結果四国今日の部分に、10月の月間降水量のほぼ3倍の量を持ってきて、洪水や地滑りの脅威を続けている。

沖縄97kphの突風本島で記録した一方、これまで嵐が146kphまで風を生み出していますが、大東島で見てきた。嘉手納ABで私たちの読者の大半は良い風が40ktsにアップしているどこか75kphは、持続的な風がちょうど熱帯嵐の強さの下に残ると見られている。

金曜日と土曜日を通してしかし脅威はフランシスコは、日本全体で生産する降雨の灌注量になります。

すでにいくつかの地すべりは紀伊Pennisulaに報告し、与論島九州2,500世帯から5,500人が避難しなければならなかったしています。降雨で500ミリメートル以上の500の家の上の過去24時間以内に発生した高知四国で上昇海域のため避難している。

JMAトラック

これらの雨が南に台風から吸い込まれる上位北に谷や湿気の支援を受けて設定しているサンフランシスコの停滞前線の北側に起因している。

フランシスコは、金曜日に海岸線をオフに渡すと、それはすでに地域全体の付加的な300ミリメートルを持って来ることが発生した大雨に追加されます。

フランシスコは東京に達した時点でそれはよく海岸オフになり、まだ大雨は、金曜日と土曜日の朝を通してまだ可能である。良いニュースは、雨がすぐに土曜日の夜を通して先細りはその背後の条件を改善し、急速に離れるべきであるということです。

東京はダメージ風を見ることなく、一晩時間中50kphオーバーウォーターフロントの近くにいくつかの報告があるかもしれないと予想される。ワイドスプレッド降雨は土曜日の午後を通じて関東エリア全体で100ミリメートルの周りになります。関東地方の天気の最悪は伊豆大島を含む沿岸地域と近くなります。

伊豆大島では、救助隊員は、最後の週の大規模な地滑りが嵐に特に傾向が原因と壊滅的な台風の後の体を検索し続ける島です。

最後の週の地すべりによって破壊された地域は今大雨が土曜日の朝に島を打者に始めると場所の土壌を保持するためにvegationを欠いている。これは、まだ多くの土砂崩れの危険性があることを意味します。

日本レーダー

島の介護施設や診療所は、先に嵐の予防措置として閉鎖されるように設定されている。

大島町の職員は島から約550高齢者や障害者が避難している。島に存在する2,300の住民の残りの部分は、より地滑りの恐怖の中で避難することをお勧めしてきた。

人々が先に福島第一に、この嵐の作って準備する方法についてはここをクリックしてください

いつものようにWestpacwxは公式代理店ではありません。私たちはふりをすることは決してありません。これらの嵐や公式WMO承認のトラックについては、ご使用の公的機関を確認してください。この場合、気象庁JTWCれていません ” – 。 Westernpacificweather

伊豆大島の住民はWiphaに従うより地滑りの恐怖の中で、今日島を避難させることをお勧めされています。

– ロバートSpeta （ @ robertspeta ） 2013年10月25日

NHK WORLD
伊豆大島島民が避難することをお勧めし

伊豆大島、東京の南の島の町の当局者は彼らの家を避難させる2土砂崩れで荒廃した地域で2,000人以上の住民に助言している。

別の嵐が島に近づくと金曜日に呼び出しが来る。

10月16日に、台風Wiphaは土砂崩れを誘発する、伊豆大島に大雨を納入。 31人が死亡し、 13はまだ不足している。

町の職員は、さらに地面を緩め、より土砂崩れの危険性を高めることが深刻な熱帯暴風雨、サンフランシスコ、のアプローチのために多くの豪雨を恐れる。

1,200世帯で約2,300住民が危険地域に住んでいる。

町当局は、降雨量に応じて、島の地域の残りのための避難勧告を発行することができると言う。

2013年10月25日 – 更新4時02 UTC

（ビデオクレジット： worldnewsdepartment ）
福島工場は台風の脅威と格闘

不自由福島第一原子力発電所のオペレータは、別の強力な台風のアプローチとして汚染された雨水用の収納スペースを確保して走っている。

東京電力は、かつてあまりに漏れみなさ地下プールに雨水を動かし始めている。水は放射性廃棄物の水タンクの周りに障壁を満たした台風や豪雨の結果である。

東京電力はタンクに、タービン建屋の地下で最も汚染された雨水を格納されています。しかし台風フランシスコは週末に日本の本土を襲ったに設定して、タンクがいっぱいです。

日本の原子力レギュレータは3地下プールに汚染水を移動し承認した。プールは、約9000トンの総容量を持っている。

東京電力は4月にリークされた同様のモデルの後にプールを使用して停止。ユーティリティは、今ではそれらを使用する他のオプションが、を持っていませんと言います。

ユーティリティはまた、水曜日に現場溝でベータ線を放出する放射能のリットル14万ベクレルを発見したと言います。放射能は、前日以降倍増している。東京電力は、それがタンクに汚染された水を転送してと言います。

2013年10月23日 – 更新20時39 UTC
MARITIME

（画像： JMA ）マリン警告（ソース画像をクリック）
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21は250600をRJTD

WARNING 250600 。

VALID 260600警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

暴風雨警報。

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327サンフランシスコ（ 1327 ） 965 HPA

28.6N日本国132.5E SEA SOUTHは、北東15ノットの移動。

POSITIONのFAIR 。

MAXは、中心部に近い60ノットの風。

50 OVER KNOTのWINDS 100 kmイースト半円と60マイルの半径

ELSEWHERE 。

30 OVER KNOTのWINDS 210 kmイースト半円と180マイルの半径

ELSEWHERE 。

50マイル半径30.3N 136.7E AT 251800UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

975 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 60ノット。

85マイルの半径32.5N 142.8E AT 260600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

990 HPA 、中央付近のMAX WINDS 45ノット。

EXTENDED見通し。

210マイルの半径36.0N 158.0E AT 270600UTCの予想POSITION

70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。

千HPAは、 MAXは35ノットの風。

温帯LOW BECOMING 。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 0600

WWJP25 RJTD 250600

WARNINGと要約250600 。

VALID 260600警告。

警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。

GALE警告。

LOW 988 HPAを開発

45N ATアリューシャンOF 179W SEA SOUTH EASTは10ノットの移動。

WINDSはLOW南西部の700マイル以内に30〜40ノット半円AND

ELSEWHERE 400マイル。

GALE警告。

LOW 1002 HPAの開発

JAPAN 、北東15ノットを移動する45N 137E SEA AT 。

WINDSはLOW SOUTHEAST OF 600 km以内の30 〜35ノット半円AND

ELSEWHERE 300マイル。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30〜40 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

30N 130E 27N 129E 20N 125E 21N 116E 30N 122E 34Nで囲まWATERS

121E 37N 126E 34N 126E 34N 130E 30N 130E 。

GALE警告。

OVER実勢30 〜35 KNOTS北東WINDS TO北風

WATERSは51N 162E 60N 170E 60N 180E 52N 180E 51N 162Eに囲まれ。

概要。

43N 114E SE 10 KT AT HIGH 1032 HPA 。

55N 148E EAST 10 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA 。

46N 154E ESE 10 KT AT HIGH 1026 HPA 。

21N 170E WEST AT HIGH 1016 HPAゆっくり。

30N 131E FROM 32N 134E 33N 137E 32N 142Eに対して静止FRONT 。

REMARKS 。

TYPHOON 1328 LEKIMA （ 1328 ） 26.9N 144.4E AT 920 HPA ： TROPICAL SEE

CYCLONE警告。

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1327サンフランシスコ（ 1327 ） 28.6N 132.5E AT 965 HPA ：

熱帯低気圧の警告が表示されます。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 0600

WWCI50 BABJ 250600

2:31:11:11:00

BT

PAN PAN =

NAVAREA XI （IOR ）のメッセージは、 NMC BEIJINGによって発行された

1015UTC 10月25日2013年= AT

メッセージは= EVERY 06 HOURSに更新されます

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC 10月25 =

VALID 0600UTC 10月を見込んでいます。 26 =

=をWARNNING

STS FRANCISCO 28.8N 133.0E AT 1327 （ 1327 ） 982HPA

ENE 32キロ/ HとMAX WINDS 25M / Sセンターの近くをMOVING

（UP 6.5M TO SEAS ） AND 280KM 30KTS WINDS OF RADIUS

AND 32.7N 143.5E 988HPA AT 260600UTCの見通し

CENTER = NEAR MAX WINDS 23M / S

26.9N 144.4E AT SUPERTY LEKIMA 1328 （ 1328 ） 935HPA

NNE 45KM / HとMAX WINDS 52M /センターの近くのS MOVING

（UP 11.0M TO SEAS ） AND 400キロ30KTS WINDS OF RADIUS

50KTS WINDS OFと半径150kmのANDの見通し

36.7N 150.9E 955HPA MAX WINDS 42M / S AT 260600UTC

CENTER = NEAR

概要=

10から最大16M / Sガスト20M / S SEAS TO N / NE WINDS

黄海、台湾SEA EAST OVER 2.5M AND

バシー海峡と南シナ海の北PART =

14 FROM UP 4.5M TO OVER 22M / S SEAS TO NLYのWINDS

東シナ海北部=

14 FROM UP 3.5M TO OVER 20M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

東シナ海と台湾海峡=南部

08 FROM UP 1.8M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

南シナ海の西PART =

14からUP 23M / S SEAS TO SEA OVER 5.5M TO WINDS

琉球と日本SEA SOUTH OF EAST

AND小笠原諸島OF SEA WEST =

SEA OVER 10KM THAN HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS

日本と琉球SEA EAST OF SOUTH

AND小笠原諸島の海西とアンダマン海

AND SEAシンガポールとスンダ海峡東と

スラウェシ海とラウトマルク=

FORECAST =

07 FROM 1.5M UP 12M ​​/ S SEAS TO BACK NLYはWLY WINDS

渤海AND渤海STRAIT = OVER

10〜 16M / Sガスト20M / S SEASまでN / NW WINDS

黄海や韓国海峡JAPAN OVER 2.5M

SEA =

14からS / 25M SEAS TO 20M / Sガスト21〜 N / A NE WINDS

UP東シナ海や台湾海峡の3.5M TO

と台湾の海東とバシー海峡=

12 FROM UP 16M / SのSEAS TO OVER 2.5M TO NEのWINDS

南シナ海北東部=

08 FROM UP 1.5M TO OVER 12M / S SEAS TO NEのWINDS

西と南シナ海MID- EAST PARTS =

18から最大24M / Sガスト25M / S SEAS TO WINDS

日本海南部とSEA EAST OF OVER 5.5M

琉球諸島と小笠原諸島OF SEA WEST =

END

生きるか死ぬかの決定のためにこのサイト上のすべての情報を使用しないでください。すべての情報は、公式のソースへの補足として意図されています。親切な地元の警告、勧告や速報のためにあなたの国の公式の気象機関/政府Webサイトを参照してください。

Turkey/Greece/Italy/Slovenia/Croatia: Severe Weather including Tornado risk. ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Levels 1 & 2 issued. Valid 161013 0600Z -171013 0600Z – Published 151013 2220z

Storm Forecast

European forecaster, ESTOFEX has issued the following forecast for severe weather:

 

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 16 Oct 2013 06:00 to Thu 17 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 15 Oct 2013 21:51
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 2 was issued for Southwestern Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation, tornadoes and to the lesser extent for large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for Northwestern Turkey and Western Greece mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Italy, Slovenia and Northern Croatia mainly for severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A strong zonal flow is forecast over much of Western and Central Europe in conjunction with the disturbance ariving from the Atlantic. Ahead of the disturbance, ridge will translate towards Central Europe. Northwesterly flow aloft should accelerate the movement of cut-off low, centered over the Czech Republic as of Wednesday morning, towards the Aegean region. Strong jet-streak is forecast to develop on its southwestern flank, yielding strong forcing in its exit region. This cut-off low and its influence on the Mediterranean region regarding the DMC occurence will become the primary issue to deal with this forecast period.

DISCUSSION

… Southwestern Turkey …

A tongue of moist airmass is forecast to reach the region, along with a band of steep mid-level lapse rates. ECMWF is particularly optimistic regarding the latent instability build-up, showing CAPE values above 2000 J/kg for the coastal areas! Region of high latent instability will shift slowly eastwards, in accordance with the advection of steep lapse-rates. Even though isolated to scattered storms might form along the coastline even during the day, the main timeframe of severe weather risk should be between 00 and 06 UTC. Low-level wind field is expected to strengthen with the arrival of the mid-level / upper-level forcing and formation of the surface low over the northern Aegean. Forecast soundings show very moist low levels, moderate CAPE and most importantly, pronounced veering and increase of low-level winds with height, yielding long, semi-circular hodographs. A full facet of severe weather types is possible – while more isolated storms might attain supercellular characteristics, capable of tornadoes, severe wind gusts and large hail, it is very likely that a large MCS will form. Effective PW values should be high and with strong low-level flow, excessive rainfall events are well possible with such MCS, besides an isolated event of severe wind gusts. Threat will likely continue well into the next forecast period and Level 2 seems to be warranted due to the combination of more severe threats.

… Western Greece / Northwestern Turkey …

These areas are not going to have as favourable conditions as SW Turkey, but still, strong forcing will provide more than enough compensation for lack of higher CAPE values, so that MCS propagating SE-wards will be likely, especially in the late evening / night hours. With enhanced LLS, isolated tornado event is not ruled out, albeit the primary threat should be in the form of excessive precipitation.

… Northeastern / Eastern Italy, Slovenia, Northern Croatia …

A brief window around 12 / 15 UTC will exist for the development of DMC in the very cold mid-level airmass. With jet-streak above the area, very strong DLS is forecast to overspread an area of marginal latent instability. Primary question is whether updrafts can get sustained in the environment of strong storm relative winds along with significant drying at mid-levels. A very conditional Level 1 is issued for the possibility of low-topped supercells capable of severe wind gusts and/or tornadoes (moist low levels and enhanced shear in the lowest 1 km).

Japan: Typhoon 25W WIPHA 151700Z nr 32.3N 138.4E, moving NE at 30 knots (JMA) – 151013 2115z

Typhoon Wipha

Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha bearing down on Japan

Level 1 Tornado risk (see below)

(Scroll down for Japanese translation) （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA) TC track (Click image for source)

Currently valid Warnings/Advisories

(Image: JMA) Current warnings (Click image for source)

TY 1326 (WIPHA)
Issued at 17:45 UTC, 15 October 2013

<Analyses at 15/17 UTC>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N32°20′(32.3°)
	E138°25′(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	E330km(180NM)
	W280km(150NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	E750km(400NM)
	W600km(325NM)
<Estimate for 15/18 UTC>
Scale	Large
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N32°40′(32.7°)
	E138°50′(138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	E330km(180NM)
	W280km(150NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	E750km(400NM)
	W600km(325NM)
<Forecast for 16/03 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N38°05′(38.1°)
	E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 75km/h(40kt)
Central pressure	960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)
Storm warning area	E480km(260NM)
	W430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 16/15 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N44°55′(44.9°)
	E150°25′(150.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 85km/h(45kt)
Central pressure	968hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle	240km(130NM)
Storm warning area	E700km(375NM)
	W650km(350NM)

Japan Radar

(Image: JMA) Japan Radar – Precipitation (Click image for source)

(Image: JMA) Japan Radar – TORNADO Probability (Click image for source)

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR 021���
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 30.5N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 040 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 136.5E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 36.7N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 45 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 43.7N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 32.1N 137.8E.
TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 24W (NARI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.� //
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2013 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

 

Typhoon WIPHA (25W) currently located near 32.7 N 138.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
��������probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
��������probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
�Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
����Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% currently
����Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% currently
����Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
����Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
����Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
��������probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
����Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
��������probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
����Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
��������probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
����Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 80% currently
����Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
��������probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other Reports

Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

“Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph.

Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm–the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 – 2″ per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 – 8″ capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.

Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

” – Weather Underground

MARITIME

(Image: JMA) Marine Warnings (Click image for source)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP23 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA (1326) 955 HPA
AT 32.7N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 40.2N 145.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
964 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 46.6N 153.1E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
968 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 151800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 996 HPA
AT 54N 153E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER SEA OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 60N 170E 60N 180E 46N 180E 50N 170E 60N 170E.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 13.6N 147.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 14.4N 142.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 15N 105E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 37N 115E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 39N 170E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 139E TO 37N 142E 40N 149E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA (1326) 955 HPA AT 32.7N 138.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Japanese (Translated by Google)

日本：30ノット（ JMA ）でNEを移動する台風25W WIPHA 151700Z NR 32.3N 138.4E 、 – 151013 2115z

台風Wipha
大規模かつ強力なカテゴリー1台風Wiphaは日本を下にベアリング

レベル1トルネードリスク（下記参照）

（日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン） （日本語訳のためにスクロールダウン）

（画像： wunderground.com ） 5日間の予報（ソース画像をクリック）

（画像： wunderground.com ）衛星（ソース画像をクリック）

気象庁

すべての熱帯サイクロン
（画像： JMA ） TCトラック（ソース画像をクリック）

現在有効な警告/勧告

（画像： JMA ）現在の警告（ソース画像をクリック）

TY 1326 （ WIPHA ）
午後5時45分UTC 、 2013年10月15日に発行される
17分の15 UTC>で<Analyses
大規模
強い強度
中心位置N32 °20 ‘ （32.3 °）
E138 °25 ‘ （ 138.4 °）
動きNE毎時55キロ（ 30カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧955hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 70カラット）
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒（ 100カラット）
50カラット風の面積以上E330km （ 180nm以下）
W280km （ 150nmの）
30カラット風の面積以上E750km （ 400nmの）
W600km （ 325NM ）
18分の15 UTC>ため<Estimate
大規模
強い強度
中心位置N32 °40 ‘ （32.7 °）
E138 °50 ‘ （ 138.8 °）
動きNE毎時55キロ（ 30カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧955hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 70カラット）
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒（ 100カラット）
50カラット風の面積以上E330km （ 180nm以下）
W280km （ 150nmの）
30カラット風の面積以上E750km （ 400nmの）
W600km （ 325NM ）
16/03 UTC>ため<Forecast
強い強度
確率サークルN38 ° 05 ‘の中心位置（38.1 °）
E143 °20 ‘ （ 143.3 °）
動きNE毎時75キロ（ 40カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧960hPa
中央35メートル/秒付近で最大風速（ 70カラット）
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒（ 100カラット）
確率160キロの円の半径（ 85NM ）
ストーム警告エリアE480km （ 260nmの）
W430km （ 230NM ）
15分の16 UTC>ため<Forecast
強度 –
LOW
確率サークルN44の中心位置°55 ‘ （ 44.9 °）
E150 °25 ‘ （ 150.4 °）
動きNE毎時85キロ（ 45カラット）の方向と速度
中心気圧968hPa
最大持続風速35メートル/秒（ 65カラット）
最大突風スピード50メートル/秒（ 95カラット）
確率240キロの円の半径（ 130nmプロセス）
ストーム警告エリアE700km （約375nm ）
W650km （ 350nmの）
日本レーダー

（画像： JMA ）日本レーダー – 降水量（ソース画像をクリック）

（画像： JMA ）は、日本のレーダー – TORNADO確率（ソース画像をクリック）

合同台風警報センター（ JTWC ）

（画像： JTWC ） TC警告グラフィック（ソースの画像をクリック）

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN真珠湾HI / /
SUBJ /熱帯低気圧の警告/ /
RMKS /
1 。 TYPHOON 25W （ WIPHA ）警告NR 021
NORTHWESTPAC IN 02 ACTIVE熱帯低気圧
MAXはONE- MINUTE平均に基づいてWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
—
警告POSITION ：
151200Z — NEAR 30.5N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 25 KTS AT 040 DEGREES
020 NM以内の正確な位置
POSITIONは、衛星のそば中心を基準に
PRESENT WIND配分：
075 KT 、突風090 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯BECOMING
064 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
050 KT WINDS OF RADIUS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
034 KTのWINDS OF RADIUS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
30.5N 136.5E ： POSITを繰り返す
—
予測：
AT VALID 12時間：
160000Z — 36.7N 141.6E
065 KT 、突風080 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯
24人事POSITへのベクトル： 035 DEG / 45 KTS
—
AT VALID 24時間：
161200Z — 43.7N 149.1E
055 KT 、突風070 KT – MAXはWINDSを支え
OPEN WATER OVER VALID WIND半径ONLY
温帯
—
備考：
32.1N 137.8E NEAR 151500Z POSITION 。
LOCATED TYPHOON 25W （ WIPHA ） 、約345ナノメートルの南南西
横須賀、日本は過去OVER 25ノットで北東追跡して
六時間。 151200Zで最大有義波高は33フィートです。
152100Z 、 160300Z AND 160900Z AT NEXT警告。 TROPICALを参照してください
SIX – HOURLY更新用のSTORM 24W （ NARI ）警告（ WTPN32 PGTW ） 。 / /
NNNN
TSR logoNW太平洋： 10月15日に発行したストームの警告、 2013夜06時00分GMT （最終警告）

台風WIPHA （ 25W ）は、現在32.7の近くにN 138.9 Eが与えられたリードタイム（ s）で、次の可能性（複数可）に土地を打つと予測されている：

レッドアラート国（s）または州（ S）
日本
CAT 1の確率以上では、12時間以内に70％である
TSのための確率は現在のところ100％

イエローアラート市（s）とタウン（S）
いわき（37.0 N 、 140.8 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100％
東京（ 35.7 N 、 139.8 E ）
TSのための確率は現在のところ100％
静岡（35.0 N 、 138.5 E ）
TSのための確率は現在のところ100％
宮古（ 39.7 N 、 141.9 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100％
仙台市（ 38.3 N 、 140.9 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に100％
名古屋（ 35.2 N 、 136.9 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に95％で
釧路（ 43.0 N 、 144.4 E ）
TSのための確率は約24時間で85％
新潟（ 37.8 N 、 139.2 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に80％
塩野 – 美咲（ 33.5 N 、 135.8 E ）
TSのための確率は現在80％である
坂田（39.0 N 、 140.0 E ）
TSの確率は、12時間以内に65％である

注意してください
レッドアラートは、 （重症） CAT 1または％ 31 〜100 ％の確率に上です。
イエローアラート（高架） CAT 1以上〜10 ％と30 ％の確率、又はTSの間に50％以上の確率である。
CAT 1は、少なくとも毎時74マイルの台風の強さの風、毎時119キロまたは64ノット1分間の持続を意味している。
TSは、少なくとも毎時39マイルの熱帯性低気圧の強さの風を意味し、毎時63キロまたは34ノット1分持続。

グラフィカルな予測情報と詳細についてhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/をご覧くださ&#12356;

ストームトラッカー地図
その他のレポート
危ない台風Wipha灌注日本

ジェフマスターズ博士、 2013年10月15日に15:45 GMTによって
“大型で強力なカテゴリー1台風Wipha 28 MPHで北東嵐レースとして日本にダウン軸受である。

Wiphaは、気象庁によると、 2004年10月の台風蜥蜴以来、日本をヒットする最強台風である可能性が高い。

Wiphaは寒冷前線と合併し、温帯嵐への移行を受けている – それは2012年10月上陸に近づいたのと同じプロセスハリケーンサンディは受けた。台風Wiphaはサンディのように強力ではないですが、それは中央の左側に130マイルを引き出さ50ノット（毎時57.5マイル）を超える風の巨大な面積を持っていません。 Wiphaの中心が現在の日本の南岸を放牧し、嵐はわずかに弱体化すると予想されているので、日本の100マイルの広い観測幅は、気象庁によると、 50ノットの有害な風を見ることができます。日本の30マイル幅の帯状については、毎時75マイル（ハリケーン力。 ）東京は、右ハリケーン力の風の観測幅の端になるの風を経験するでしょう。まだ葉に多くの木によると、これらの風が広まっ木の損傷やダウンした電力線が発生します。 Wiphaの中心の周りに湿った、熱帯の空気の反時計回りの流れは、現在全国の寒冷前線にまで満たしている。湿った空気が寒冷前線にわたって上向きに強制されるので、これは空気が膨張し、冷却、その豊富な水分を凝縮すること、国の大部分にわたって集中豪雨が発生している。 2 “時間当たり今日東京の近くで発生した4の豪雨を – – 8″レーダー降水量の見積もりは1の降雨率があることを示す損傷洪水を引き起こすことができるには含めて、全国広範なる福島原子力サイト上に、どこに台風マンから降雨9月イー2011年3月の地震と津波によって損傷原子炉の16複雑なクリーンアップの努力。

GFSと欧州モデルの両方が邪魔天候（ 93Wを投資） 、フィリピンの東の面積が、後半に今週熱帯暴風雨に発展するその後北西を率いるれるとことを予測しているように、日本は、今月の台風で行われたすべてのできない場合がありますnext 10月23日（水曜日） 、日本を脅かす。

図1を参照。台風WiphaのMODIS衛星画像では、 2013年10月15日に約4時25 UTCに取られ、日本を、近づいています。当時、 Wiphaは毎時90マイルの風でカテゴリー1の嵐だった。画像クレジット： NASA 。

” – キャンペーン応募はこちら
MARITIME

（画像： JMA ）マリン警告（ソース画像をクリック）

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP23は151800をRJTD
WARNING 151800 。
VALID 161800警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
台風警報。
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA （ 1326 ） 955 HPA
32.7N日本国138.9E SEA SOUTHは、北東30ノットMOVING 。
良いポジション。
MAXは、中心部に近い70ノットの風。
50 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は180 kmイースト半円AND 150マイル
ELSEWHERE 。
30 OVER KNOTのWINDSの半径は500 kmイースト半円AND 325マイル
ELSEWHERE 。
85マイルの半径40.2N 145.4E AT 160600UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
964 HPA 、MAXは65ノットの風。
温帯LOW BECOMING 。
130マイルの半径46.6N 153.1E AT 161800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
968 HPA 、 MAX WINDS 65ノット。
温帯LOW BECOMING 。

気象庁。 =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 151800
WARNINGと要約151800 。
VALID 161800警告。
警告は6時間ごとに更新されます。
GALE警告。
開発した低996 HPA
オホーツクはEAST 15ノットを移動54N 153Eの海で。
LOWの400マイル以内WINDSは、30〜 45ノット。
GALE警告。
北東の風が30〜45ノット日本海OVER優勢。
GALE警告。
北風は、 30 〜35ノット東シナ海OVER優勢。
GALE警告。
OVER実勢30 〜35 KNOTS北西風TO北風
WATERSは60N 170E 60N 180E 46N 180E 50N 170E 60N 170Eに囲まれ。
GALE警告。
熱帯低気圧1004 HPA
WEST 12ノットMOVING 13.6N 147.2EマリアナAT 。
POSITIONのFAIR 。
MAXは、中心部に近い30ノットの風。
EXPECTED MAXのWINDS NEXT 24時間の中心部に近い35ノット。
120マイルの半径14.4N 142.6E AT 161800UTCの予想POSITION
70パーセントの確率CIRCLE OF 。
概要。
15N 105E WEST 15 KT AT熱帯低気圧千HPA 。
37N 115E ESE 15 KT AT HIGH 1028 HPA 。
39N 170E EAST 15 KT AT HIGH 1032 HPA 。
35N 139E FROM 37N 142E 40N 149Eに対して静止FRONT 。
REMARKS 。
TYPHOON 1326 WIPHA （ 1326 ） 32.7N 138.9E AT 955 HPAは： TROPICAL SEE
CYCLONE警告。

気象庁。 =

Philippines: Powerful earthquake hits Bohol and Cebu, leaves at least 93 dead – 151013 1715z

Red Cross Emergency Numbers: Cebu Chapter 032- 4124140 |� 09209294645 and Bohol Chapter 038-5019175 | 09209031793 @RedCrossCebu

A powerful earthquake jolted three popular central Philippine islands Tuesday, killing at least 32(*G: Revised – at least 93, some reports say 97)� people, tearing down buildings and triggering landslides.

Fifteen of the confirmed fatalities were in Cebu, the second most important city in the Philippines and a gateway to some of the country’s most beautiful beaches, civil defence office spokesman Reynaldo Balido told reporters.

The 7.1-magnitude quake caused centuries-old churches and modern buildings to crumble, while major roads were also ripped open and blocked by landslides. “I was fast sleep when suddenly I woke up because my bed was shaking. I was so shocked, I could do nothing but hide under the bed,” Janet Maribao, 33, a receptionist in Cebu, said.

The governor of Bohol reported that at least 16 people had died there and more than 100 others were injured, while one person was confirmed killed on the neighbouring island of Siquijor. All the areas are famed for their idyllic white sands and turquoise waters.

Balido and others involved in the relief and rescue operations warned the death toll would climb, with the full extent of the damage yet to be assessed. Nevertheless, they expressed relief the earthquake occurred on the Eid public holiday, meaning there were fewer people than normal in many of the major buildings that suffered damage.

The quake struck at 8.12am (3.12am UAE) near Balilihan, a town of about 18,000 people on Bohol, at a depth of 20 kilometres, the USGS reported. The town lies across a strait about 60 kilometres from Cebu. Cebu, with a population of 2.5 million people, is the political, economic, educational and cultural centre of the central Philippines. It hosts the country’s busiest port and largest airport outside of the capital Manila. It also has a major ship building industry.

Tuesday, 15 October, 2013 at 07:42 UTC RSOE

Other Reports

“Massive extremely dangerous earthquake in Bohol, Philippines – At least 97 people killed, hundreds injured, around 4 billion PHP damage expected.

Update 16:34 UTC� : More than� 9,000 people living on Bohol island are displaced due to earthquake

Update 16:19 UTC : The death toll increased to 97. Most of the casualties have been reported from Bohol (the island of the epicenter) The number of dead in Bohol alone has reached 87. In Cebu, 9 have died, while one fatality was reported in Siquijor.

Update 12:24 UTC : The NDRRMC reports that more than 400,000 families have been affected by the earthquake (can be in different ways, damaged and inhabitable houses, etc etc)

 

Update 12:13 UTC : Some fatality reasons as reported by the NDRRMC + damages is also reported in seaports and airports, government buildings, hospitals, schools, and other infrastructure, mostly in Bohol and Cebu.

 

 

” -� earthquake-report.com (Further updates, video & pictures)

Deadly Philippine quake hits Bohol and Cebu

� 15 October 2013 Last updated at 17:20BST (1620Z GMT/UTC)

The aftermath of the earthquake

Continue reading the main story

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• Philippines profile
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At least 93 people have been reported dead after a magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit the central Philippines.

The quake happened at 08:12 (00:12 GMT) on a national holiday. The US Geological Survey said it struck below the island of Bohol, where officials reported most casualties.

People were also killed in the province of Cebu.

Historic churches were among the many damaged buildings, and stampedes were reported in two cities.

At least 69 of those confirmed dead were from Bohol, according to reports citing disaster management officials.

Fifteen people are known to have been killed in Cebu, and another was reported dead on the neighbouring island of Siquijor.

Dozens of others are also being treated for injuries.

Search and rescue operations are being conducted, with rescuers finding themselves hampered by damaged roads.

At least five people died when part of a fishing port collapsed in Cebu, and two others were also reported dead when a roof fell at a market.

At least three people also died during a stampede at a sports complex in Cebu, provincial disaster chief Neil Sanchez said.

“There was panic when the quake happened and there was a rush toward the exit,” he told AFP.

The tremor triggered power cuts in parts of Bohol, Cebu and neighbouring areas, say reports citing the country’s disaster management agency.

Officials from Bohol and Cebu have declared a state of emergency in their respective provinces, local media say.

An official from the government agency which monitors earthquake activity was quoted as saying that this was the strongest tremor felt in the area in the last 23 years.

President Benigno Aquino is expected to visit the affected areas on Wednesday.

A 7.2 quake struck underneath Bohol island, damaging structures like this old church in Loboc town.

A huge crack has appeared in a road in Bohol province as a result of the earthquake.

Damage was also reported in neighbouring Cebu, about an hour away by plane from the capital, Manila.

People ran out onto the streets in Cebu – one of the country’s major cities.

A police officer surveys the damage in Cebu city.

Many were also evacuated from buildings, like this hospital in Cebu, where patients were led to safer areas.

At least five people died when part of this port building collapsed in Cebu.

Edgardo Chatto, the governor of Bohol, said a city hall building was damaged on the island.

Heavy damage to roads, bridges and historic churches, some dating back to the Spanish colonial period in the 1500s and the 1600s, was also reported in Bohol and Cebu.

British man David Venables, who has lived in Cebu for seven years, said it was the strongest quake he had experienced.

“It’s a very strange and frightening experience when the very foundations of the house and surrounding area shake uncontrollably,” he said.

Bonita Cabiles, a resident of Mandaue city in Cebu, told the BBC she was woken up when she felt the ground rumbling.

She said there was a lot of structural damage in the area, including to the bell tower of the Santo Nino church in Cebu, one of the most well-known churches in the country.

It was fortunate that it was a national holiday and the students were not in school, she said.

There were reports of aftershocks following the quake.

The Philippine Red Cross said in a statement that they had mobilised staff and volunteers to affected areas.

Cebu province, with a population of more than 2.6 million, is about an hour away by plane from Manila.

Neighbouring Bohol, a favourite of tourists because of its sandy beaches, is a short boat ride away from Cebu.

Videos

Earthquake hits Philippines

(Video credit: SuPeR BeSt ViDeOs)

Published on Oct 15, 2013

Earthquake hits Philippines

At least 93 people have died after an earthquake struck the central Philippines, causing widespread destruction.

7 1 Earthquake Rocks Philippines near Bohol Province

(Video credit: Dwayne Campbell)

Published on Oct 15, 2013

Disaster rocks the Philippine Islands with a 7.1 Earthquake. Epicenter was about 620 Kilometers South of Manila near Catigbian. This on the heels of a Typhoon that caused massive damage and flooding.

Philippines Earthquake Earthquake Destroys Church

(Video credit: Beytullah GĂĽneĹź)

Published on Oct 15, 2013

 

No description available.

Filipino (Translated by Google)

Pilipinas : Napakahusay na lindol hit sa Bohol at Cebu , nag-iwan ng hindi bababa sa 93 patay – 151,013 1715z

Red Cross Emergency Number : Cebu Kabanata 032-4,124,140 | 09209294645 at Bohol Kabanata 038-5,019,175 | 09209031793 @ RedCrossCebu
Isang malakas na lindol jolted tatlong sikat na sentro ng Philippine isla Martes, pagpatay ng hindi bababa sa 32 (* G : Binago – hindi bababa sa 93 , ang ilang mga ulat sabihin 97 ) mga tao , pansiwang down na mga gusali at nagti-trigger ng landslides .
Labinlimang ng nakumpirma fatalities ay nasa Cebu , ang ikalawang pinakamahalagang lungsod sa Pilipinas at isang gateway sa ilan sa mga pinaka- magagandang beach ng bansa , pagtatanggol na pambayan opisina tagapagsalita Reynaldo Balido Sinabi reporters .

Ang 7.1 – magnitude lumindol dulot may sandaang taon na simbahan at modernong gusali na gumuho , habang ang mga pangunahing kalsada ay din bigtal bukas at hinarangan sa pamamagitan ng landslides . ” Mabilis na ako ay matulog kapag bigla ako woke up dahil ang aking kama ay pagkakalog . Ako ay kaya shocked , maaari kong gawin walang anuman kundi itago sa ilalim ng kama , ” Janet Maribao , 33 , isang resepsyonista sa Cebu , sinabi.

Ang gobernador ng Bohol iniulat na hindi bababa sa 16 taong namatay at may higit sa 100 iba ay nasugatan , habang ang isang tao ay nakumpirma pumatay sa mga kalapit na isla ng Siquijor . Ang lahat ng mga lugar ay sikat para sa kanilang payapa’t maligaya white sands at turkesa tubig .

Balido at iba sangkot sa pagbibigay-lunas at Pagsagip pagpapatakbo binigyan ng babala ang kamatayan toll gusto umakyat , may buong lawak ng pagkasira pa lang tasahin . Gayunpaman , sila ay ipinahayag lunas lindol ang naganap sa Eid holiday pampublikong , ibig sabihin mayroong mga mas kaunting mga tao kaysa sa normal na sa marami sa mga pangunahing gusali na pinagdudusahan pinsala .

Ang lumindol struck sa 08:12 ( 03:12 UAE ) na malapit sa Balilihan , isang bayan ng tungkol sa 18,000 mga tao sa Bohol , sa isang lalim na 20 kilometro , ang USGS iniulat . Ang bayan ay namamalagi sa isang makipot tungkol sa 60 kilometro mula sa Cebu . Cebu , na may populasyong 2.5 milyong mga tao , ay ang pampulitika , pang-ekonomiya , pang-edukasyon at pangkultura sentro ng gitnang Pilipinas . Ito ay nagho-host ng pinaka-abalang port ng bansa at pinakamalaking airport sa labas ng kabiserang Maynila . Mayroon din itong isang pangunahing industriya ng barko gusali.

Martes, Oktubre 15, 2013 sa 07:42 UTC RSOE
Iba pang Mga Ulat
” Napakalaking lubhang mapanganib na lindol sa Bohol , Pilipinas – Hindi bababa sa 97 taong namatay , daan-daang nasugatan , sa paligid 4000000000 PHP pinsala inaasahan.

Update 16:34 UTC : Higit sa 9000 mga taong naninirahan sa Bohol isla ay displaced dahil sa lindol

Update 16:19 UTC : Ang plegarya tumaas sa 97 . Karamihan sa mga casualties naiulat mula sa Bohol (ang isla ng sentro nang lindol ) Ang bilang ng mga patay sa Bohol mag-isa ay umabot 87 . Sa Cebu , 9 na namatay , habang isa bagsik pumatay ay naiulat sa Siquijor .

I-update ang 00:24 UTC : Ang NDRRMC mga ulat na higit sa 400,000 mga pamilya na apektado ng lindol ( maaaring maging sa iba’t ibang paraan , nasira at matitirahan bahay , atbp atbp)

Update 12:13 UTC : Ang ilang mga bagsik pumatay kadahilanan tulad ng iniulat ng NDRRMC pinsala + din ang naiulat sa seaports at airports , government building , mga ospital , mga paaralan , at iba pang imprastraktura , karamihan sa Bohol at Cebu .

Screen shot 2013/10/15 sa 14.13.30

“- Lindol – report.com ( Ang karagdagang mga update, mga video at mga larawan )
Nakamamatay Philippine lumindol hit Bohol at Cebu

BBC Oktubre 15, 2013 Huling na-update sa 17:20 BST ( 1620Z GMT / UTC)

Ang mga resulta ng lindol

Magpatuloy pagbabasa ang pangunahing kuwento
Kaugnay na Mga Kuwento

Pilipinas profile
Big lumindol strike off ang Pilipinas
Animated na gabay : Lindol

Hindi bababa sa 93 tao ang naiulat na patay matapos ang isang magnitude 7.2 na lindol pindutin ang gitnang Pilipinas .

Yumanig ang lupa ang nangyari sa 08:12 ( 00:12 GMT) sa isang pambansang holiday . Ang Survey sa US Geological sinabi ito sa ibaba struck sa isla ng Bohol , kung saan ang mga opisyal ng iniulat pinaka casualties .

Mga tao ay namatay din sa lalawigan ng Cebu .

Makasaysayang simbahan kabilang sa mga maraming mga nasira gusali, at stampedes ay naiulat sa dalawang lungsod .

Hindi bababa sa 69 ng mga nakumpirma patay ay mula sa Bohol , ayon sa mga ulat nagbabanggit opisyal ng disaster management.

Labinlimang mga tao ay kilala sa na- pumatay sa Cebu , at isa pang naiulat patay sa mga kalapit na isla ng Siquijor .
mapa

Dose-dosenang iba pa din ang mga ina- itinuturing para sa mga pinsala .

Paghahanap at Pagsagip operasyon ay ina isinasagawa , may rescuers sa paghahanap ng kanilang mga sarili hampered sa pamamagitan ng nasira mga kalsada .

Hindi bababa sa limang tao ay namatay kapag ang bahagi ng isang port pangingisda na gumuho sa Cebu , at dalawang iba pa ay din iniulat patay kapag roof isang nahulog sa isang merkado .

Hindi bababa sa tatlong mga tao ay namatay din sa panahon ng isang pagpapanakbuhan sa isang sports complex sa Cebu , panlalawigan disaster chief Neil Sanchez sinabi.

” Nagkaroon biglang pagkatakot kapag lumindol ang nangyari at nagkaroon ng Rush patungo sa exit , ” kanyang sinabi sa AFP .

Ang pagyanig trigger cut kapangyarihan sa mga bahagi ng Bohol , Cebu at mga kalapit na lugar , sabihin ulat nagbabanggit ng kalamidad pamamahala ng bansa ahensiya .

Mga opisyal mula sa Bohol at Cebu na ipinahayag ng isang estado ng emergency sa kani-kanilang mga lalawigan , mga lokal na media sasabihin.

Ang isang opisyal mula sa ahensya ng pamahalaan na sinusubaybayan ng lindol aktibidad ay may panipi bilang na nagsasabi na ito ay ang pinakamatibay na pagyanig nadama sa lugar sa nakaraang 23 taon .

President Benigno Aquino ay inaasahan na bisitahin ang mga apektadong lugar sa Miyerkules .
Ang gumuho harapan ng San Pedro y San Pablo simbahan sa Loboc bayan , Bohol lalawigan A 7.2 lumindol struck sa ilalim Bohol isla , damaging mga istraktura tulad nito lumang simbahan sa Loboc bayan .
Residente maglakad sa kahabaan ng malaking basag sa isang kalsada pagkatapos ng lindol struck ng Bohol lalawigan , central Pilipinas , 15 Oktubre 2013 . Isang malaking crack ay lumitaw sa isang kalsada sa Bohol lalawigan bilang isang resulta ng lindol .
Manggagawa gumamit ng isang kreyn upang iangat up bato na nahulog sa isang kotse matapos na mga gusali na gumuho sa panahon ng lindol sa lungsod ng Cebu , sentro ng Pilipinas , 15 Oktubre 2013 pinsala ay din na naiulat sa karatig Cebu , tungkol sa isang oras ang layo sa pamamagitan ng eroplano mula sa kabisera , Manila .
Mga Tao magtipon sa kalye sa tabi ng nasira gusali sa lungsod ng Cebu , Pilipinas , pagkatapos ng isang pangunahing magnitude 7.1 na lindol struck ang rehiyon sa Oktubre 15, 2013 Mga Tao Naubusan papunta sa kalye sa Cebu – isa sa mga pangunahing mga lungsod ng bansa.
Ang isang opisyal ng pulis survey ang pinsala kasunod ng 7.2 – magnitude na lindol na hit ang Cebu lungsod Isang pulis survey ng pinsala sa lungsod ng Cebu .
Ospital pasyente ay evacuated pagkatapos ng lindol struck ng lungsod ng Cebu , sa sentro ng Pilipinas 15 Oktubre 2013 Marami na rin evacuated mula sa mga gusali , tulad nito ospital sa Cebu , kung saan ang mga pasyente ay humantong sa mas ligtas na lugar.
Rescuers shift sa pamamagitan ng mga durog na bato upang mabawi ang isang unidentified tao sa isang port isda sa Pasil , Cebu , sentro ng Pilipinas , 15 Oktubre 2013 ang hindi bababa sa limang mga tao ay namatay kapag ang bahagi ng gusaling ito port na gumuho sa Cebu .

Edgardo Chatto , ang gobernador ng Bohol , sinabi ng isang gusali city hall ay napinsala sa isla .

Malakas na pinsala sa mga kalsada , tulay at makasaysayang simbahan , ang ilang mga itinayo ang Espanyol kolonyal na panahon sa 1500s at 1600s ang , ay din na naiulat sa Bohol at Cebu .

British tao Venables David , na nanirahan sa Cebu para sa pitong taon , sinabi ito ay ang pinakamatibay na yumanig ang lupa na kanyang naranasan.

“Ito ay isang napaka- kakaiba at nakakatakot na karanasan kapag pinakadulo pundasyon ng bahay at nakapaligid na lugar iling uncontrollably , ” sinabi niya .

Bonita Cabiles , isang residente ng lungsod ng Mandaue sa Cebu , sinabi ng BBC siya ay woken up kapag siya nadama ang lupa rumbling .

Siya ay sinabi nagkaroon ng maraming istruktura pinsala sa lugar , kabilang sa mga tore ng Santo Nino simbahan sa Cebu , isa sa mga pinaka- kilalang mga simbahan sa bansa .

Ito ay mapalad na ito ay isang pambansang holiday at ang mga mag-aaral ay wala sa paaralan , kanyang sinabi.

Nagkaroon ng mga ulat ng aftershocks ng pagsunod sa mga lindol .

Ang Philippine Red Cross sinabi sa isang pahayag na sila ay mobilized mga tauhan at mga boluntaryo sa mga lugar na apektado .

Cebu lalawigan , na may populasyong higit sa 2,600,000 , ay tungkol sa isang oras ang layo sa pamamagitan ng eroplano mula Maynila .

Neighbouring Bohol , isang paborito ng mga turista dahil sa mga sandy beach , isang maigsing biyahe sa bangka ang layo mula sa Cebu .
Mga Video
Lindol hit sa Pilipinas

( Credit Video : Super pinakamahusay na video )

Nai-publish sa Oktubre 15, 2013

Lindol hit sa Pilipinas

Hindi bababa sa 93 na tao ang namatay pagkatapos ng lindol ang isang struck sa central Pilipinas , na nagiging sanhi ng lakit pagkawasak .
7 1 Lindol Pilipinas Rocks malapit sa Bohol Province

( Video credit : Dwayne Campbell )

Nai-publish sa Oktubre 15, 2013

Disaster bato ang Republika ng Pilipinas na may 7.1 Lindol . Sentro nang lindol ay tungkol sa 620 Kilometro Timog ng Manila malapit sa Catigbian . Ito sa takong ng isang Typhoon na dulot napakalaking pinsala at pagbaha .
Lindol sa Pilipinas Lindol Destroys Church

( Video credit : Beytullah GĂĽneĹź )

Nai-publish sa Oktubre 15, 2013

Walang paglalarawan na magagamit .

Vietnam: Massive explosion(s) guts Phu Tho fireworks factory in military complex – At least 23 dead, 98 injured & some 2,000 evacuated – 131013 1910z

Update Sunday, 13 October, 2013 at 04:33 UTC RSOE:

At least 21 people died and several were injured Saturday in an explosion at a fireworks factory in northern Vietnam, local media said. Authorities said that thousands of people have been evacuated from the scene of the accident in Phu Tho province while the search for victims continues, according to the daily Thanh Nien News. Gen. Le Quang Dai, head of the military-run fireworks factory, said that scores of workers were on hand when the explosion occurred and that most were able to escape. Police and soldiers are investigating the causes of the accident and helping provide aid at the factory, located some 120 kilometers (75 miles) north of Hanoi.

==========================================================

Saturday, 12 October, 2013 at 09:12 (09:12 AM) UTC RSOE:
At least seven people died early today in an explosion at a fireworks factory within a military complex, state media reported.The explosion prompted the evacuation of some 2,000 people living near the Z121 military facility, around 120 kilometres (75 miles) north of Hanoi, police said, adding incident was yet to be brought under control. “At least seven people have died and more are injured in the explosion,” the official Vietnam News Agency reported, without providing details on the number of injured. Residents in Thanh Ba district — where the complex is located — said they felt the ground shake in repeated explosions, the VNExpress news site reported. “The fire and explosion are ongoing. Firemen and soldiers have not been able to get access,” policeman Pham Quang Minh told AFP from near the accident site. “About 2,000 people around the Z121 factory have been evacuated,” he added. One local resident told AFP that locals have fled to the Viet Tri township, about 40 kilometres away, fearing further damage.”We have received warnings from authorities that there could be further explosions which could be very destructive,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity. No information on the cause of the explosion was immediately available.

=========================================================

Other Reports

 

(Translated by Google)

(Note 3 reports from VNExpress – note different time stamps)

Thousands m2 gutted by the explosion in Phu Tho

Sunday, 10/13/2013 15:47 GMT +7

One day after fireworks warehouse explosion, regional operators, warehouses and factories littered Z121 factory in ruins.

A workshop near the main gate of the factory wide Z121 thousand m2 pressure of the explosion blew half the roof. According to the report of the General Department of Defence Industry, the explosion did the whole production line and warehouse fireworks factory blast – fireworks burned down and some of the damaged buildings.

Trees along the path from the studio to a broken gate and leafless fine.

Executive Building was also heavily damaged.

The destructive power of the explosion to a few thousand meters wide areas devastated.

2 storey concrete house also under pressure from the explosion hit desolation. Most rooms no doors …

The tradition of the unit near the main gate collapsed roofs, tattered.

Damage 52 billion in fireworks depot explosion

Sunday, 10/13/2013 10:37 GMT +7

Morning 13/10, reported Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai, Lieutenant General Nguyen Duc Lam, Chairman of the General Department of Defence Industry said the fireworks depot explosion has killed 23 people, 52 billion damage.

Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai inspect the scene of the fire. Photo: midwife

Mr Lam said the fireworks explosion at a warehouse of the factory 4, Z121 factory, no workers but many people working in the warehouse next to impossible to get up dead and injured.

Afternoon 12/10, 17 corpses were transferred to a funeral home, and the other victims have not been identified to the hospital for evaluation 103.

In relation to the injured, Mr. Lam said 73 people, but Monday afternoon, the Health Ministry reported 98 people injured, most seriously injured.

The explosion leveled part of the factory Z121. Photo: midwife

Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai direct cause investigation assessment and lessons learned after the explosion. He expressed condolences to the victims, asked the Defense Ministry to coordinate with local combined rescue the wounded. Deputy Prime Minister asked the province to assess the damage of the surrounding population to support the plan, adequately compensated.

8am this morning, the port Fireworks Factory – Explosive defense of factory Z121 continues to tighten security with over 10 soldiers work to protect. Area warehouses factory explosion fireworks drug is only a rubble more than 2 m high. outer, a few tens of meters are police forces and local militias. C continuous light factory gate to welcome the convoy opened fire and military vehicles carrying sea water spray to cool fire just off. Dozens of factory workers continue digging through the rubble. A truck constantly moving to the area and residual materials into other areas.

Talking with VnExpress, Lieutenant General Truong Quang Khanh said last night, after reviewing the number of workers present at the time of the fire, the authorities confirmed that no trapped victims Back at the scene.

“The body did not match the identification number of the missing victims. Department of Defense has identified these people moved to the hospital for conditions forensics, identify personal, family handed over in the earliest time, “said Khanh said, the Defense Ministry is urgently address the policy for victims, support the injured quick recovery.

In addition to factory exploded completely destroyed, other buildings outside the factory walls adjacent to unroofed well. Photo by midwives.

According to Lieutenant General Khanh, “the accident was completely controlled, no risk of recurrence.” After cleaning, check the whole, the plant will continue to produce because this task is the only factory producing fireworks festival to serve the country and exported abroad.

Share on accidents causing particularly serious consequences, General Khanh said the Defense Ministry has always placed priority on safety over the top and this was fully aware. The incident took place, the initial cause was attributed to ignite explosives made ​​of fireworks warehouse fire, explosion and resulting fire spread to the factories. “This is the most tragic accidents in the past 15 years” Mr Khanh said.

In meeting this morning, said Phu Tho t INH has mobilized all forces from the police, the military, health workforce, the local leaders to coordinate the remediation.

‘We have gone all out to rescue hundreds of victims’

Sunday, 10/13/2013 00:00 GMT +7

This morning, hundreds of patients from the scene of the explosion at fireworks factory in Phu Tho Z121 was rushed into hospital Phu Tho town, many people can no longer heal itself.

8 am 12/10, two communal ground Khai Xuan Phu Tho and Lao Vo shaking with the continuous deafening explosion. Numerous houses were unroofed pressure caused, burning furniture. Thousands of panicked residents out into the street.

Many military vehicles, emergency, fire set to move to the direction of factory Z121, which specializes in producing the country’s biggest fireworks. All the health facilities in Phu Tho patients receiving mobilization, which is the largest hospital in Phu Tho town.

Around 8h15 cases first brought here. As long as 10-15 minutes a whistle ambulances rushed to the emergency department. The nurses, doctors welcome patients continuously. Hundreds of people flock to find relatives of the victims. Emergency Zone 2 storey home with people ken.

Most patients with head injuries, broken limbs, burns … The oxygen tank is filled outdoors antiseptic, gauze quality stainless steel table.

Tuan, head of the emergency department, said this morning that day off. Listen notice the explosion, he draped blouse hustle and colleagues embarked cure patients. Smell of disinfectant concentration anonymously spread to all areas of the park.

Hospital Phu Tho town received more than 200 victims of the explosion affected. Favorites: Do Vietnam

In the surgical ward, nearly 10 doctors for emergency’re focused Nguyen Thi Van (29 years old), one of the most severely ill patients, with multiple burns and injuries. After nearly an hour of first aid, the victim has not regained consciousness. Standing in the hallway, Ms. Van relatives sobbed.

Dr. Hoang Thi Kim Vinh shared morning when the victim is too many, hospitals have mobilized hundreds of teachers, college students and help health care Phu Tho. “Never Institute we receive many emergency patients virtually the same time as this,” said Dr. Vinh.

Dr. Bui Anh Giao, said hospital director, had mobilized all human and material resources are used to rescue the victim. 40 people have voluntarily donated blood.

He Transportation share, from morning till now not a moment to rest. “We’ve gone all out to rescue the victims,” ​​said Transportation said.

After a winter aid for patients, more than half had been transferred to hospital in Phu Tho province, 103 Military Hospital, Central Hospital burns, Vietnam-Germany Hospital for treatment.

In the emergency department resuscitation, Vietnam Duc Hospital in Hanoi, said Swedish girl sitting bandaged hand not stunned. Tran Thi Lieu, 29, his daughter, a worker at the factory Z121, wounded in the legs, thighs, traumatic brain injury, is preparing to surgery.

“After a loud explosion and saw smoke rolling up, I hurriedly took up motorcycle plant but not in it. Components of not healthy, I hurried back to the car to the town of Phu Tho Hospital and found baby,” said Sweden recounts his voice still shaking. Due to her injuries were transferred to Touches Vietnamese Hospital in Germany at noon.

Touches Her husband said: “When I saw the smoke, I ran home and saw the collapsed wall, just hurry up to take the car to get the car to pick up the two posts to go.”

Dr. Duong Trong Hien (deputy dean emergency gastrointestinal surgery, shift leader) said outside her Lieu, Vietnam-Germany Hospital patients also received other a lighter, so he moved back to the province. The hospital has also sent a delegation including 2 doctors and 2 nurses to support hospital in Phu Tho Province Vietnam Tri city.

One of the patients with severe burns, being special care in the intensive care department, National Institute of Burns named Jade, 26 years old, 4 months pregnant, the body burns. She is a worker in fireworks factories in the factory Z121.

“The charred grandchildren. In the morning, when the lead in Phu Tho General Hospital, I see that I no longer recognize their children anymore. I’m pregnant with a second heavy people should not start running up. Not that I do not have to keep “her mother said Jade choked. According to the doctors, Jade patients with deep burns 70% rate.

The same was transferred to the intensive care department National Institute of Burns this afternoon, Nguyen Thi Kim Tuyen severe injury by 90%. She burned the body, from head to toe, is in critical condition fairly.

19 pm tonight, another patient was Bui Van Nhan (23) also burns hospitalized in a state of severe burns and stamping femur. The patient’s surgery has been rearranged femur Vietnam Tri Hospital before moving to the National Burn Institute.

Nguyen Thi Ly told, after the explosion, her son – a factory worker Z121 – thrown on the pole and break down the entire leg and arm fractures caused. Photo: Minh Thuy

Nguyen Thi Ly’s mom said her son was doing at the factory Z121 2 years. 9 o’clock this morning, her limbs fall off when he heard the news reported dead in blast at fireworks factory. She loved the run up scattered plants, but was not able to 20km due to congestion. “Thank God, then I got the call from the factory they said it is not dead, just broken limbs, has been transferred to hospital. I rushed to the hospital, that I was moved from the stretcher to the ambulance, who was covered in blood, “Ms. Li said.

She added that, while the Phu Tho hospital, he’s there once woke up, she saw the tears flowed, including “After the explosion, I was knocked up and break down the column. You could just go down the fibro sheets nearby heard the roar. 5 minutes later if no one pulled me over, I’m dead. I thought I died, I just worry about her, “her brimming Li said. He’s been out of state rescue lost a lot of blood, broken femur fractures, burns along the body from the chest, two to the leg side.

By about 9 pm tonight, the National Burn Institute has received at least 6 patients injured by the explosion at the factory moved to Phu Tho Z121. The figure at Army Hospital 103 is 15.

Initial information said the explosion caused 20 deaths, 98 people were injured. The reason for the incident was spontaneous explosion of fireworks.

Z121 plant under the General Industrial Defense (DOD) is the only domestic production and supply of fireworks to the celebration service

=========================================================

Deadly explosions at Vietnamese fireworks factory

� 12 October 2013 Last updated at 12:24BST (1124Z GMT/UTC)

Amateur footage purported to show an explosion at the complex

A series of explosions at a fireworks factory in northern Vietnam has killed at least 15 people and left many others injured.

Witnesses said the explosions continued for several hours, sending a large cloud of smoke into the sky.

The factory at a military complex 120 km north of the capital, Hanoi, employs about 300 workers.

A large area around the plant was cordoned off and residential areas nearby were evacuated.

The fire was later brought under control, according to police, but they feared more bodies could be found inside the wreckage.

Residents said many local people had fled after their homes were rocked by a series of powerful detonations.

Officials said the fireworks were being produced at the factory in Phu Tho province for military and other official ceremonies.

Mexico: Tropical Storm OCTAVE: 131000Z nr 17.3N 111.1W, moving NW at 11 knots (JTWC) Baja California peninsula be aware – 131013 1310z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm) 15E OCTAVE

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA…

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

United States

 

(Image: NHC) 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch (Click image for source)

WTPZ35 KNHC 130830

TCPEP5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013

200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

�

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…17.1N 111.0W

ABOUT 405 MI…655 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. OCTAVE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY…WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH FORECAST TO OCCUR ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75

KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

WTPN31 PHNC 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002�� �
�� UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 16.6N 110.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 110.6W
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 18.6N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 20.5N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 22.0N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 23.2N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 24.5N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 25.5N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
131000Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 111.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHWARD OF CABO SAN LUCAS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

(Image: NHC) Graphicast Eastern Pacific (Click image for source)

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130853
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE NEAR 17.1N 111.0W AT
13/0900 UTC OR 352 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE
AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE…AND ALSO FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SSTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OCTAVE MOVES
TO THE NW-N. AFTER THAT…OCTAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS
AND WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR
CAUSING OCTAVE TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY TUE NIGHT WHILE
MOVING MORE TO THE N-NE…DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BY THU NIGHT.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 13N103W…THEN RESUMES
FROM LOW PRES NEAR 13N117W TO 12N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO ITCZ
IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W…FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND
109W…AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
PRES NEAR 13N117W.

…DISCUSSION…

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH 32N120W TO 14N130W…MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS AS
A BROAD AND DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
NEAR 24N100W HOLDS IN PLACE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A VERY DRY…STABLE…AND SUBSIDING AIR MASS OVER THE
BASIN W OF ITS AXIS. TIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONE IS ADVECTING MOIST AIR AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AS WELL AS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. CONVECTION IS FANNING
OUT ON THE S-SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE WATERS S
OF 20N E OF 120W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE…A RIDGE IS OVER THE NW PORTION
EXTENDING FROM 32N137W TO JUST NW OF OCTAVE NEAR 20N113W.
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS
UNDER THE RIDGE N OF 20N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

1010 MB LOW PRES…THE REMNANTS OF NARDA…IS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N135W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N QUADRANT ALONG WITH 9-11 FT
SEAS…WHILE A SET OF N-NE SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8-9 FT OVERLAP
THE LOW WITHIN 360 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING TO A TROUGH BY
MON AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES 140W.

1006 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SW OF OCTAVE
NEAR 13N117W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS
IS OCCURRING SE-S OF THIS LOW WITH A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT
TO THE N-NE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY BE
IMPACTED BY THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF OCTAVE HINDERING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORECAST TO HELP USHER IN FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MON…DIMINISHING BY MON NIGHT.

$$
LEWITSKY

High Seas Forecast (Tropical NE Pacific)

000
FZPN03 KNHC 130913
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE OCT 15.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE NEAR 17.1N 111.0W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
13 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 40 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT…WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE NEAR 20.5N 113.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM E SEMICIRCLE…30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE NEAR 23.2N 113.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN
111W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN PRIMARILY
MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OCTAVE NEAR 24.5N
113.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OCTAVE NEAR 25.5N
112.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 13N117W 1006 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
13N116W TO 10N120W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 14N109W TO
14N118W TO 08N122W TO 08N109W TO 14N109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 13N116W 1007 MB. WITHIN 210 NM
SE OF A LINE FROM 18N113W TO 12N117W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 16N114W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E
QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.LOW PRES NEAR 13N135W 1010 MB. WITHIN 180 NM N QUADRANT WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 12N139W 1010 MB. FROM 14N TO 17N
W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 14.5N95W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 15N95W TO 14N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO
NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA� WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.� SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0830 UTC SUN OCT 13…

.TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE…NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE…AND FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 110W AND
113W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N80W TO 13N103W THEN RESUMES FROM LOW
PRES NEAR 13N117W TO 12N133W TO 08N140W. NO ITCZ E OF 140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W…FROM
07N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 109W…AND WITHIN 120 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 13N117W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ25 KNHC 130830
TCMEP5
�
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER�� 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL������ EP152013
0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013
�
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
�
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
�
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.0W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN� 30 NM
�
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT� 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS� 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO� 50 KT.
34 KT……. 40NE� 40SE�� 0SW� 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE� 40SE�� 0SW� 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.� RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
�
REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.0W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 110.6W
�
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.6N 112.1W
MAX WIND� 45 KT…GUSTS� 55 KT.
34 KT… 50NE� 50SE� 30SW� 40NW.
�
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND� 45 KT…GUSTS� 55 KT.
34 KT… 50NE� 50SE� 30SW� 40NW.
�
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND� 40 KT…GUSTS� 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE� 50SE�� 0SW� 40NW.
�
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND� 35 KT…GUSTS� 45 KT.
34 KT… 40NE� 40SE�� 0SW�� 0NW.
�
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND� 25 KT…GUSTS� 35 KT.
�
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
�
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 25.5N 112.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND� 20 KT…GUSTS� 30 KT.
�
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z…DISSIPATED
�
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 111.0W
�
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
�
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 131130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 15.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW 56N165W 980 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM NE…480 NM
SE…660 NM SW…AND 480 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
8 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND NE OF A FRONT FROM
58N153W TO 55N142W TO 50N137W AND WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE OF A
FRONT FROM 56N146W TO 48N148W TO 40N153W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 60N148W TO
57N140W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N157W 1002 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 NM REMAINING E QUADRANT AND WITHIN 180 NM SE
AND E OF A FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 58N137W TO 54N137W TO 46N144W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW 50N163E 990 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 360 NM E AND 900 NM
S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 120 NM NE OF A
LINE FROM 55N170E TO 54N174E TO 52N177E WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS
11 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 54N166E 971 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 600 NM NE…900 NM SE…AND 960 NM SW QUADRANTS
WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 22 FT…HIGHEST NEAR 52N164E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N179E 976 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SE…780 NM
SW…AND 360 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AND AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 54N164W TO
57N151W TO 39N175W TO 54N164W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 36N157W 1014 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N145W 1014 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 240 NM NE…360 NM SE…1380 NM SW…AND 120 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N148W 1009 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NE…360 NM
SE…240 NM SW…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
10 TO 16 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 45N BETWEEN 125W AND 129W AREA OF
N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 46N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 62N BETWEEN 166W AND
171W AREA OF NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS N OF AREA.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 44N TO 58N
BETWEEN 138W AND 150W AND OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 41N TO 52N W
OF 172E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 49N BETWEEN 139W AND
145W AND WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 55N179W TO 50N179W TO
43N176E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 48N BETWEEN 140W AND
145W AND FROM 46N TO 56N BETWEEN 161W AND 171W.

.HIGH 48N132W 1027 MB MOVING S 05 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 47N132W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N133W 1032 MB.

.HIGH 38N139W 1024 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 40N178W 1027 MB MOVING E 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N168W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N160W 1028 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 52N145W 1030 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N162E 1029 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE OCT 15.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE NEAR 17.1N 111.0W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
13 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 40 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT…WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE NEAR 20.5N 113.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM E SEMICIRCLE…30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE NEAR 23.2N 113.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN
111W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN PRIMARILY
MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OCTAVE NEAR 24.5N
113.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OCTAVE NEAR 25.5N
112.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 13N117W 1006 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
13N116W TO 10N120W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 14N109W TO
14N118W TO 08N122W TO 08N109W TO 14N109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 13N116W 1007 MB. WITHIN 210 NM
SE OF A LINE FROM 18N113W TO 12N117W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 16N114W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E
QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.LOW PRES NEAR 13N135W 1010 MB. WITHIN 180 NM N QUADRANT WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 12N139W 1010 MB. FROM 14N TO 17N
W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 14.5N95W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 15N95W TO 14N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO
NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA� WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.� SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0830 UTC SUN OCT 13…

.TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE…NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE…AND FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 110W AND
113W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N80W TO 13N103W THEN RESUMES FROM LOW
PRES NEAR 13N117W TO 12N133W TO 08N140W. NO ITCZ E OF 140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W…FROM
07N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 109W…AND WITHIN 120 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 13N117W.

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 13 2013.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 14 2013.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 15 2013.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 08N169E 1007 MB MOVING W 25 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
10N172E TO 09N178E AND FROM LOW TO 06N165E TO 04N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 360 NM SOUTH OF TROUGH LINE AND
WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF TROUGH LINE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 13N166E 1007 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
13N173E TO 09N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED W OF FORECAST AREA. TROUGH FROM
12N160E TO 16N165E.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N163W TO 28N170W TO 27N177W MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N151W TO 28N160W TO 27N177W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.TROUGH FROM 19N178W TO 15N175W TO 13N168W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 17N178W TO 14N174W TO 12N170W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 15N178W TO 12N175W TO 10N171W.

.RIDGE FROM 30N143W TO 23N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST RIDGE FROM 30N140W TO 26N148W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT OR GREATER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 30N TO 27N BETWEEN 174W
AND 160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 30N TO 26N BETWEEN 168W
AND 151W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 08N141W TO 06N152W TO 09N162W TO 07N173W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

Spanish (Translated by Google)

M�xico : Tormenta Tropical OCTAVA : 131000Z nr 17.3N 111.1W , movi�ndose al NW a 11 nudos ( JTWC ) la pen�nsula de Baja California tenga en cuenta – 131013 las 1310z

Cicl�n Tropical ( Tropical Storm ) OCTAVE 15E

DEPRESI�N … FORTALECE A TORMENTA TROPICAL DEL SUR DE LA BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA …

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsi�n de 5 d�as ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Sat�lite ( imagen Pica para la fuente )

Estados Unidos

El tiempo Nacional ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[ Imagen de la predicci�n de 5 d�as y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]
(Imagen: NHC ) pron�stico de 5 d�as y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ( Pulsa en la imagen para la fuente )

WTPZ35 TJSJ 130830

TCPEP5

BOLET�N

TORMENTA TROPICAL OCTAVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2

NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP152013

200 AM PDT dom 13 de octubre 2013

DEPRESI�N … FORTALECE A TORMENTA TROPICAL DEL SUR DE LA BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA …

RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … INFORMACI�N

———————————————-

UBICACI�N … 17.1N 111.0W

ACERCA DE MI 405 … 655 KM S DE LA PUNTA DEL SUR DE BAJA CALIFORNIA

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 45 MPH … 75 KM / H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NO O 315 GRADOS A 13 MPH … 20 KM / H

PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1002 MB … 29.59 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS

——————–

NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO .

INTERESES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE BAJA CALIFORNIA

DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA .

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS

——————————

A LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA OCTAVA tormenta tropical

LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.1 NORTE … LONGITUD 111.0 OESTE . Octave es

MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH … 20 KM / H. EL GENERAL

SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE HOY … CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA

LA PREVISI�N DEL NORTE QUE OCURRA EL LUNES .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 45 MPH … 75

KM / H…WITH RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE EL

PROXIMAS 24 HORAS .

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS … 75 KM

DESDE EL CENTRO .

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MB … 29.59 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA

———————-

NINGUNO.

SIGUIENTE AVISO

————-

ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 800 AM PDT .

$ $

PRONOSTICADOR Cangialosi
Warning Center del tif�n com�n ( JTWC )

WTPN31 PHNC 131000
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / CICL�N TROPICAL ADVERTENCIA / /
OBS /
1 . TORMENTA TROPICAL 15E ( QUINCE ) ADVERTENCIA NR 002
MEJORADO DESDE 15E LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
01 ACTIVE CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC
Vientos m�ximos sostenidos basado en el promedio de un minuto
Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
—
ADVERTENCIA POSICI�N :
130600Z — CERCA 16.6N 110.6W
MOVIMIENTO �LTIMOS SEIS HORAS – 320 GRADOS A 11 KTS
POSICI�N una precisi�n de 030 NM
Posici�n basada en el centro situado POR SAT�LITE
DISTRIBUCION ACTUAL DEL VIENTO :
Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 040 KT , r�fagas de 050 KT
Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
RADIO DE VIENTOS 034 KT – 040 NM cuadrante noreste
040 NM cuadrante sureste
000 NM cuadrante suroeste
040 NM cuadrante noroeste
REPETIR POSIT : 16.6N 110.6W
—
Previsiones:
12 HRS , v�lido en :
131800Z — 18.6N 112.1W
Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 045 KT , r�fagas de 055 KT
Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
RADIO DE VIENTOS KT 034 – 050 NM cuadrante noreste
050 NM cuadrante sureste
030 NM cuadrante suroeste
040 NM cuadrante noroeste
VECTOR DE 24 POSIT HR: 335 grados / 11 KTS
—
24 HRS , v�lido en :
140600Z — 20.5N 113.1W
Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 045 KT , r�fagas de 055 KT
Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
RADIO DE VIENTOS KT 034 – 050 NM cuadrante noreste
050 NM cuadrante sureste
030 NM cuadrante suroeste
040 NM cuadrante noroeste
VECTOR DE 36 HR POSIT : 345 º / 08 KTS
—
36 HRS , v�lido en :
141800Z — 22.0N 113.5W
Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 040 KT , r�fagas de 050 KT
Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
RADIO DE VIENTOS KT 034 – 050 NM cuadrante noreste
050 NM cuadrante sureste
000 NM cuadrante suroeste
040 NM cuadrante noroeste
VECTOR DE 48 POSIT HR: 005 DEG / 06 KTS
—
Perspectiva extendida :
48 HRS , v�lido en :
150600Z — 23.2N 113.4W
Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 035 KT , r�fagas de 045 KT
Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
RADIO DE VIENTOS 034 KT – 040 NM cuadrante noreste
040 NM cuadrante sureste
000 NM cuadrante suroeste
000 NM cuadrante noroeste
VECTOR DE 72 POSIT HR: 015 º / 03 KTS
—
72 HRS , v�lido en :
160600Z — 24.5N 113.0W
Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 025 KT , r�fagas de 035 KT
Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPAR COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL RELEVANTE SOBRE EL AGUA
VECTOR DE 96 POSIT HR: 025 º / 03 KTS
—
PERSPECTIVAS A LARGO ALCANCE :
—
96 HRS , v�lido en :
170600Z — 25.5N 112.5W
Vientos m�ximos sostenidos – 020 KT , r�fagas de 030 KT
Radio de los vientos V�LIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPADO COMO CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE EL AGUA
—
OBSERVACIONES :
POSICI�N 131000Z CERCA 17.3N 111.1W .
15E TORMENTA TROPICAL ( QUINCE ) , situado a unos 380 NM
EL SUR DE CABO SAN LUCAS , ha rastreado NOROESTE DE 11
NUDOS EN LOS �LTIMOS SEIS HORAS .
M�XIMO altura de ola significativa AT 130600Z es de 10 pies . SIGUIENTE
ADVERTENCIAS EN 131600Z , 132200Z , 140400Z 141000Z Y . / /
NNNN
MAR�TIMO

Graphicast Pac�fico Oriental
(Imagen: NHC ) Graphicast Pac�fico Oriental ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

Pac�fico Oriental Tropical Tiempo Discusi�n

000
AXPZ20 TJSJ 130853
TWDEP

DISCUSI�N CLIMA TROPICAL
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
1005 UTC dom 13 de octubre 2013

DISCUSI�N CLIMA TROPICAL PARA EL OC�ANO PAC�FICO ORIENTAL DE
El Ecuador hasta 32N … AL ESTE DE 140W . LA SIGUIENTE INFORMACI�N ES
Partir de im�genes satelitales … -Tiempo … RADAR … Y
AN�LISIS DE METEOROLOGIA.

BASADO EN LA SUPERFICIE 0600 UTC AN�LISIS E IM�GENES POR SAT�LITE
0830 UTC.

… CARACTER�STICAS ESPECIALES …

Actualizado recientemente OCTAVE TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA 17.1N 111.0W AT
13 / 0900 UTC O 352 NM S de la punta sur de Baja California
MOVIMIENTO NO a 11 KT . PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA 1002 MB .
M�XIMA VELOCIDAD DEL VIENTO SOSTENIDO ES 40 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 50 KT . SEE
El pron�stico m�s reciente NHC / ASESOR EN AWIPS / OMM CABECERAS
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 TJSJ para m�s detalles. NUMEROSOS MODERADO
Y CONVECCI�N FUERTE DISPERSOS.LUEGO se encuentra a 60 nm en el E
SEMICIRCULO … Y TAMBI�N DE 14N A 21N ENTRE 110W Y 113W .
VIENTOS FAVORABLES nivel superior y SSTS CALIENTES deben permitir
CONTIN�A EL DESARROLLO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS COMO SE MUEVE OCTAVE
AL NW- N . Despu�s de eso … OCTAVE SE MUEVE SOBRE SSTS NEVERAS
Y se encontrar� con aumento de la cizalladura vertical del viento y aire m�s seco
CAUSANTE OCTAVE DEBILITANDOSE A UN REMANENTE BAJA POR NOCHE MIENTRAS mar
MOVIMIENTO M�S A LA N -NE … DISIPAR TOTALMENTE POR NOCHE jue

… INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCIA ZONE / vaguada monz�nica …

LA vaguada monz�nica se extiende desde 09N80W A 13N103W … reanuda ENTONCES
DE BAJA PRESI�N DE CERCA 13N117W 12N133W PARA ALL� 08N140W . NO ITCZ
ES E ACTUAL DE 140W . CONVECCI�N MODERADO dispersada DE 11N
A 13N ENTRE 98W 100W … Y DE 07N A 11N ENTRE 101W Y
109W … y tambi�n dentro de 120 nm en el NW semic�rculo DE LA BAJA
PRES CERCA 13N117W .

DISCUSI�N … …

UNA VAGUADA EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE MANTIENE EN LUGAR DE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
A TRAV�S DE 32N120W 14N130W … AL ESTE QUE HACE POCO PROGRESO COMO
Un anticicl�n NIVEL SUPERIOR AMPLIA Y DOMINANTE SOBRE CENTRAL MEXICO
CERCA 24N100W mantiene en su lugar . EL CANAL DEL NIVEL SUPERIOR SIGUE
MANTENER UNA MUY SECO … ESTABLE … Y DISMINUYENDO MASA DE AIRE SOBRE LA
CUENCA W de sus ejes . Flujo del sur APRETADO ALOFT ENTRE LA
CANAL Y anticicl�n SE advecci�n AIRE H�MEDO y convectiva
ESCOMBROS POR LA PARTE SUR DE LA BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA , as� como m�s PENINSULAR MEXICO . CONVECCI�N est� avivando
FUERA DE LA PERIFERIA S -SW del anticicl�n sobre las aguas S
DE 20N E DE 120W .

EN OTRA PARTE EN LA SUPERFICIE … A RIDGE HA TERMINADO LA PARTE NO
AMPLIACI�N DE 32N137W A SOLO NO DE OCTAVA CERCA 20N113W .
Vientos del norte moderado y 4-6 MARES FT DOMINAR LAS AGUAS
BAJO EL RIDGE N DE 20N W DE LA PENINSULA DE BAJA CALIFORNIA .

1010 MB PRES BAJO … los restos de NARDA … est� integrado en el
Vaguada monz�nica CERCA 13N135W . FRESCO CON VIENTOS FUERTES SON
Ocurren dentro de 180 nm en la N CUADRANTE JUNTO CON 9-11 FT
SEAS … MIENTRAS UN CONJUNTO DE N -NE SWELL con alturas de 8-9 OVERLAP FT
LA BAJA EN 360 nm en el NW semic�rculo. LA BAJA SE ESPERA
De seguir avanzando WESTWARD mientras disipa A UN CANAL DE
Lunes por la tarde cuando se acerca 140W .

1006 MB PRES BAJO est� incrustada en la vaguada monz�nica SW DE OCTAVA
CERCA 13N117W . UN ESPACIO DE DULCE DE VIENTOS FUERTES Y OLEAJE 8-10 M
Est� ocurriendo SE- S DE ESTA BAJA CON UN �REA PEQUEÑA DE DESORGANIZADO
Convecci�n profunda cerca de las bajas . LA BAJA SE ESPERA PARA LEVANTAR LENTAMENTE
A LA N -NE A TRAV�S DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS Y es probable que se
AFECTADO POR LA CIRCULACI�N DE EXTERIOR OCTAVE entorpecen
Desarrollo significativo .

Golfo de Tehuantepec … los restos de una onda tropical sobre
WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA SE ESPERA QUE AYUDA USHER EN FRESCO A
VIENTOS DEL NORTE FUERTES Y OLEAJE resultante para 8 FT EN EL GOLFO DE
TEHUANTEPEC esta misma mañana . ESTAS CONDICIONES persistir�
A TRAV�S DE MON … DISMINUCI�N DE LUNES NOCHE .

$ $
LEWITSKY
High Seas Pron�stico (Tropical NE del Pac�fico )

000
FZPN03 TJSJ 130913
HSFEP2

ALTA MAR PRONOSTICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
1030 UTC dom 13 de octubre 2013

SUSTITUIDO POR EXPEDICI�N AL LADO DE 6 HORAS

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio
ALTURA DE LA M�S ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuales pueden ser
M�s del doble de altura de ola significativa .

S�curit�

E PACIFICO DEL ECUADOR PARA 30N E DE 140W .

SINOPSIS V�LIDO 0600 UTC Dom Oct 13.
24 HOUR 0600 UTC Pron�stico v�lido lun 14 de octubre .
48 HOUR 0600 UTC Pron�stico v�lido mar 15 de octubre .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL …
. TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA OCTAVE 17.1N 111.0W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC octubre
13 MUDANZAS NW O 315 GRADOS A 11 KT . Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 40 KT
RAFAGAS DE 50 KT . LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE 40 NM DE CENTRO
EXCEPTO 0 NM SW cuadrante. SEAS 12 pies o m�s DENTRO DE 40 NM
CENTRO DE EXCEPCI�N 0 NM SW CUADRANTE DE MAR A 14 FT . EN OTRA PARTE
DENTRO DE 210 NM del centro … EXCEPTO 0 NM SW CUADRANTE … VIENTOS DE 20 A
33 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 12 FT.
0.24 hora Pron�stico TROPICAL OCTAVE tormenta cerca de 20.5N 113.1W .
Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 45 RAFAGAS DE 55 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 50 NM E SEMICIRCULO … 30 NM SW CUADRANTE Y 40 NM NO
CUADRANTE . SEAS 12 pies o m�s dentro de la zona de la tormenta tropical
VIENTOS CON FUERZA SEAS a 16 pies . Otro punto de 210 nm de
CENTRO DE VIENTOS DE 20 A 33 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 12 FT.
0.48 hora Pron�stico TROPICAL OCTAVE tormenta cerca de 23.2N 113.4W .
Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 35 RAFAGAS DE 45 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 40 NM E SEMIC�RCULO Y 0 NM W semic�rculo. SEAS 12
FT O MAYOR EN AREA DE VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CON
SEAS A 13 FT . Otro punto de 90 NM DE VIENTOS DEL CENTRO DE 20 A 33
KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 12 FT. RESTO DEL AREA DE 21N A 25N ENTRE
111W 118W Y VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . OLEAJE DE 8 A 9 pies de PRINCIPALMENTE
MIXTA SW y NW hincharse.
0.72 hora Pron�stico POST- TROPICAL OCTAVE REMANENTE BAJA CERCA 24.5N
113.0W . Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 25 r�fagas KT 35 KT . EXTENDIDO
PERSPECTIVAS … USO DE DIRECCI�N SOLAMENTE … Los errores pueden ser grandes.
0.96 hora Pron�stico POST- TROPICAL OCTAVE REMANENTE BAJA CERCA 25.5N
112.5W . Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 20 RAFAGAS DE 30 KT KT .
0.120 HORAS DE PRON�STICO … disipado.

VIENTOS DE PREDICCI�N EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe
Usar con precauci�n debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAÑO
E INTENSIDAD .

. SINOPSIS Y PRON�STICO .

PRES . BAJA CERCA 13N117W 1006 MB . DENTRO DE 180 NM SE DE UNA L�NEA DE
13N116W A 10N120W SW VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES .
En otros lugares dentro de un �rea limitada por una l�nea que 14N109W A
14N118W A 08N122W A 08N109W A 14N109W VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior .
OLEAJE DE 8 A 9 FT EN MEZCLA SW y NW hincharse.
0.24 hora Pron�stico PRES BAJO CERCA 13N116W 1007 MB . DENTRO DE 210 NM
SE DE UNA L�NEA DE 18N113W A 12N117W S AL VIENTO SW 20 A 25 KT .
OLEAJE DE 9 A 11 FT . OTRO DE 09N A 15N ENTRE 108W Y 117W
VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES EN MEZCLA SW y NW hincharse.
0.48 hora Pron�stico PRES BAJO CERCA 16N114W 1008 MB . DENTRO DE 120 NM E
VIENTOS DEL CUADRANTE 20 kt o inferior . SEAS 8 pies de SW hincharse.

PRES . BAJA CERCA 13N135W 1010 MB . DENTRO DE 180 NM N VIENTOS CUADRANTE
20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 9 A 10 PIES . Otro punto de 360 NM NW
SEMICIRCULO VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . OLEAJE DE 8 A 9 pies de N a NE hincharse.
0.24 hora Pron�stico PRES BAJO CERCA 12N139W 1010 MB . DE 14N A 17N
W DE VIENTO 137W 20 kt o inferior . OLEAJE DE 8 A 9 FT EN NE hincharse.
0.36 hora Pron�stico PRES BAJO disipado. VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . SEAS
MENOS DE 8 FT .

0.06 hora Pron�stico PLAZO DE 30 NM a cada lado de una l�nea desde 16N95W
A 14.5N95W … incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE
20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT .
0.24 hora Pron�stico DENTRO DE 45 NM a cada lado de una l�nea desde 16N95W
A 15N95W A 14N96W … incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL
NE VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT . SEAS 8 FT.
0.42 hora Pron�stico VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

CONVECCI�N V�LIDO 0830 UTC dom 13 de octubre …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL OCTAVE … NUMEROSOS MODERADA FUERTE DISPERSOS.LUEGO
DENTRO DE 60 NM E SEMICIRCULO … Y DE 14N A 21N ENTRE 110W Y
113W .

. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCIA ZONE / vaguada monz�nica …
MONZ�N DEL CANAL DE 09N80W A 13N103W RESUME LUEGO DE BAJA
CERCA DE PRES 13N117W 12N133W A 08N140W . NO ZCIT E DE 140W .
DISPERSADAS MODERADO DE 11N A 13N ENTRE 98W 100W … Y DE
07N A 11N ENTRE 101W 109W Y … Y DENTRO DE 120 NM NW
Semic�rculo de 13N117W CERCA DE BAJA .

$ $
. PRONOSTICADOR LEWITSKY . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ25 TJSJ 130830
TCMEP5

TORMENTA TROPICAL OCTAVE PRON�STICO / ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP152013
0900 UTC dom 13 de octubre 2013

NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO .

INTERESES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE BAJA CALIFORNIA
DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA .

CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA CERCA 17.1N 111.0W AT 13/0900Z
POSICI�N EXACTA EL PLAZO DE 30 NM

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE O 315 GRADOS A 11 KT

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA 1.002 MB
Vientos m�ximos sostenidos de 40 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 50 KT .
34 KT ……. 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW .
12 SEAS FT .. 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW .
VIENTO Y OLEAJE var�an mucho en cada cuadrante. RADIOS EN N�UTICA
MILES SON LOS RADIOS DE ESPERA M�S GRANDE EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN QUE cuadrante.

REPEAT … CENTRO UBICADO CERCA 17.1N 111.0W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA 16.6N 110.6W

Pron�stico v�lido 13/1800Z 18.6N 112.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT … RAFAGAS DE 55 KT .
34 KT … 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW .

Pron�stico v�lido 14/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT … RAFAGAS DE 55 KT .
34 KT … 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW .

Pron�stico v�lido 14/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT … RAFAGAS DE 50 KT .
34 KT … 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW .

Pron�stico v�lido 15/0600Z 23.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT … RAFAGAS DE 45 KT .
34 KT … 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW .

Pron�stico v�lido 16/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 25 KT … RAFAGAS DE 35 KT .

Perspectiva extendida . NOTA … ERRORES DE PISTA han promediado CERCA DE 150 NM
El d�a 4 y 175 NM en el d�a 5 … Y CERCA DE INTENSIDAD 15 KT CADA D�A

PERSPECTIVAS V�LIDO 17/0600Z 25.5N 112.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS DE 30 KT .

PERSPECTIVAS V�LIDO 18/0600Z…DISSIPATED

SOLICITUD DE 3 INFORMES DEL BUQUE POR HORA EN 300 MILLAS DE 17.1N 111.0W

SIGUIENTE AVISO EN 13/1500Z

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR Cangialosi

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 131130
HSFEPI

ALTA MAR pron�stico para METAREA XII
NWS MAR CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC dom 13 de octubre 2013

CCODE / 1:31:12:01:00 / AOW + POR / NWS / CCODE
SUSTITUIDO POR EXPEDICI�N AL LADO DE 6 HORAS

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio
ALTURA DE LA M�S ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuo puede
Ser m�s que dos veces la altura de ola significante .

S�curit�

PAC�FICO N DE 30N Y S DE 67N E DE UNA L�NEA DE BERING STRAIT
A 50N 160E

SINOPSIS V�LIDO 0600 UTC 13 de octubre .
24 HORAS Pron�stico v�lido 0600 UTC 14 de octubre .
48 HORAS Pron�stico v�lido 0600 UTC 15 de octubre .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA …
. BAJA 56N165W 980 MB MOVIMIENTO E 15 KT . DENTRO DE 240 NM NE … 480 NM
SE … 660 NM SW … Y 480 NM NO cuadrantes VIENTOS DE 25 A 40 KT . SEAS
8 a 20 pies . Otro punto de 180 NM N y NE DE UN FRENTE DE
58N153W A 55N142W A 50N137W Y DENTRO DE 240 NM E Y SE DE UN
FRENTE DE 56N146W A 48N148W PARA VIENTOS 40N153W 25 A 40 KT . SEAS
8 A 12 FT .
0.06 hora Pron�stico DENTRO DE 60 NM NE DE UNA L�NEA DE 60N148W A
VIENTOS 57N140W 40 a 50 nudos. OLEAJE DE 12 A 15 PIES .
0.24 hora Pron�stico BAJOS 56N157W 1002 MB . DENTRO DE 300 NM S
SEMICIRCULO y 300 NM RESTANTES E CUADRANTE Y DENTRO DE 180 NM SE
Y CORREO DE UN FRENTE PARA AMPLIAR DE 58N137W A 54N137W A 46N144W
VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 15 FT.
0.48 hora Pron�stico BAJO CONDICIONES disipado y ASOCIADOS
Disminuido.

… AVISO DE TORMENTA …
. BAJA 50N163E 990 MB MUEVE NE 10 KT . DENTRO DE 360 NM E y 900 NM
S CUADRANTES VIENTOS DEL 25 AL 40 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.12 hora Pron�stico SOBRE AGUAS DE PREDICCI�N EN 120 MN NE DE UN
L�NEA DE 55N170E A 54N174E A 52N177E VIENTOS 40 A 50 KT . SEAS
11 a 16 pies .
0.24 hora Pron�stico BAJA NO DE AREA 54N166E 971 MB . M�S DE PREVISI�N
AGUAS EN 600 NM NE … 900 NM SE … Y 960 NM cuadrantes SW
VIENTOS DE 30 A 45 KT . OLEAJE DE 9 A 22 FT … M�S ALTO 52N164E pr�ximo.
0.48 hora Pron�stico BAJA 55N179E 976 MB . DENTRO DE 360 NM SE … 780 NM
SW … Y 360 NM W CUADRANTES VIENTOS DE 30 A 45 KT . OLEAJE DE 12 A 24 FT .
Y otro punto de zona delimitada por una l�nea trazada desde 54N164W A
57N151W A 39N175W A 54N164W VIENTOS DE 25 A 40 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 16 FT .

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …
BAJA . 36N157W 1014 MB MOVIMIENTO NE 25 KT . Vientos del NE a 25 KT .
SEAS menos de 8 FT .
0.24 hora Pron�stico BAJOS 42N145W 1014 MB . PREVISIONES SOBRE LAS AGUAS
DENTRO DE 240 NM NE … 360 NM SE … 1380 NM SW … Y 120 NM NO
CUADRANTES VIENTOS DE 25 KT . SEAS A 10 FT .
0.48 hora Pron�stico BAJOS 40N148W 1009 MB . DENTRO DE 300 NM NE … 360 NM
SE … 240 NM SW … Y 300 NM NO cuadrantes VIENTOS DE 25 A 40 KT . SEAS
10 a 16 pies .

. SINOPSIS Y PRON�STICO .

0.24 HORA PREVISTA DE 37N A 45N ENTRE 125W 129W Y AREA DE
N VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT . SEAS A 9 FT .
0.48 HORA PREVISTA DE 38N A 46N ENTRE 125W 131W Y AREA DE
N a NE VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT . SEAS A 9 FT .

0.24 hora Pron�stico SOBRE AGUAS DE PREDICCI�N N DE 62N ENTRE 166W Y
AREA DE 171W NW a N VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT . SEAS A 10 FT .
0.48 HORAS condiciones pronosticadas N de AREA .

. Densa niebla. VSBY OCASIONALMENTE menor que 1 nm DE 44N A 58N
ENTRE 138W y 150W Y PREVISIONES SOBRE LAS AGUAS DE 41N A 52N W
DE 172E .
0.24 hora Pron�stico densa niebla DE 44N A 49N ENTRE 139W Y
145W Y DENTRO DE 180 NM SE DE UNA L�NEA DE 55N179W 50N179W A A
43N176E .
0.48 hora Pron�stico densa niebla DE 45N A 48N ENTRE 140W Y
145W Y DE 46N A 56N ENTRE 161W Y 171W .

. HIGH 48N132W 1027 MB MOVIMIENTO S 05 KT .
0.24 hora Pron�stico ALTA 47N132W 1029 MB .
0.48 hora Pron�stico ALTA 46N133W 1032 MB .

. HIGH 38N139W 1024 MB MOVIMIENTO E 10 KT .
0.24 hora Pron�stico HIGH disipado.

. HIGH 40N178W 1027 MB MOVIMIENTO E 20 KT .
0.24 hora Pron�stico ALTA 41N168W 1029 MB .
0.48 HORA PREVISTA DE ALTA 41N160W 1028 MB .

0.48 hora Pron�stico NEW HIGH 52N145W 1030 MB .

0.48 hora Pron�stico ALTA 40N162E 1029 MB .

. PRONOSTICADOR Bell. OC�ANO Centro de Predicci�n .

CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL

E PACIFICO DEL ECUADOR PARA 30N E DE 140W .

SINOPSIS V�LIDO 0600 UTC Dom Oct 13.
24 HOUR 0600 UTC Pron�stico v�lido lun 14 de octubre .
48 HOUR 0600 UTC Pron�stico v�lido mar 15 de octubre .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL …
. TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA OCTAVE 17.1N 111.0W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC octubre
13 MUDANZAS NW O 315 GRADOS A 11 KT . Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 40 KT
RAFAGAS DE 50 KT . LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE 40 NM DE CENTRO
EXCEPTO 0 NM SW cuadrante. SEAS 12 pies o m�s DENTRO DE 40 NM
CENTRO DE EXCEPCI�N 0 NM SW CUADRANTE DE MAR A 14 FT . EN OTRA PARTE
DENTRO DE 210 NM del centro … EXCEPTO 0 NM SW CUADRANTE … VIENTOS DE 20 A
33 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 12 FT.
0.24 hora Pron�stico TROPICAL OCTAVE tormenta cerca de 20.5N 113.1W .
Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 45 RAFAGAS DE 55 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 50 NM E SEMICIRCULO … 30 NM SW CUADRANTE Y 40 NM NO
CUADRANTE . SEAS 12 pies o m�s dentro de la zona de la tormenta tropical
VIENTOS CON FUERZA SEAS a 16 pies . Otro punto de 210 nm de
CENTRO DE VIENTOS DE 20 A 33 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 12 FT.
0.48 hora Pron�stico TROPICAL OCTAVE tormenta cerca de 23.2N 113.4W .
Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 35 RAFAGAS DE 45 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 40 NM E SEMIC�RCULO Y 0 NM W semic�rculo. SEAS 12
FT O MAYOR EN AREA DE VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CON
SEAS A 13 FT . Otro punto de 90 NM DE VIENTOS DEL CENTRO DE 20 A 33
KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 12 FT. RESTO DEL AREA DE 21N A 25N ENTRE
111W 118W Y VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . OLEAJE DE 8 A 9 pies de PRINCIPALMENTE
MIXTA SW y NW hincharse.
0.72 hora Pron�stico POST- TROPICAL OCTAVE REMANENTE BAJA CERCA 24.5N
113.0W . Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 25 r�fagas KT 35 KT . EXTENDIDO
PERSPECTIVAS … USO DE DIRECCI�N SOLAMENTE … Los errores pueden ser grandes.
0.96 hora Pron�stico POST- TROPICAL OCTAVE REMANENTE BAJA CERCA 25.5N
112.5W . Vientos sostenidos m�ximos de 20 RAFAGAS DE 30 KT KT .
0.120 HORAS DE PRON�STICO … disipado.

VIENTOS DE PREDICCI�N EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe
Usar con precauci�n debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAÑO
E INTENSIDAD .

. SINOPSIS Y PRON�STICO .

PRES . BAJA CERCA 13N117W 1006 MB . DENTRO DE 180 NM SE DE UNA L�NEA DE
13N116W A 10N120W SW VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES .
En otros lugares dentro de un �rea limitada por una l�nea que 14N109W A
14N118W A 08N122W A 08N109W A 14N109W VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior .
OLEAJE DE 8 A 9 FT EN MEZCLA SW y NW hincharse.
0.24 hora Pron�stico PRES BAJO CERCA 13N116W 1007 MB . DENTRO DE 210 NM
SE DE UNA L�NEA DE 18N113W A 12N117W S AL VIENTO SW 20 A 25 KT .
OLEAJE DE 9 A 11 FT . OTRO DE 09N A 15N ENTRE 108W Y 117W
VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES EN MEZCLA SW y NW hincharse.
0.48 hora Pron�stico PRES BAJO CERCA 16N114W 1008 MB . DENTRO DE 120 NM E
VIENTOS DEL CUADRANTE 20 kt o inferior . SEAS 8 pies de SW hincharse.

PRES . BAJA CERCA 13N135W 1010 MB . DENTRO DE 180 NM N VIENTOS CUADRANTE
20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 9 A 10 PIES . Otro punto de 360 NM NW
SEMICIRCULO VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . OLEAJE DE 8 A 9 pies de N a NE hincharse.
0.24 hora Pron�stico PRES BAJO CERCA 12N139W 1010 MB . DE 14N A 17N
W DE VIENTO 137W 20 kt o inferior . OLEAJE DE 8 A 9 FT EN NE hincharse.
0.36 hora Pron�stico PRES BAJO disipado. VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . SEAS
MENOS DE 8 FT .

0.06 hora Pron�stico PLAZO DE 30 NM a cada lado de una l�nea desde 16N95W
A 14.5N95W … incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE
20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT .
0.24 hora Pron�stico DENTRO DE 45 NM a cada lado de una l�nea desde 16N95W
A 15N95W A 14N96W … incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL
NE VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT . SEAS 8 FT.
0.42 hora Pron�stico VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

CONVECCI�N V�LIDO 0830 UTC dom 13 de octubre …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL OCTAVE … NUMEROSOS MODERADA FUERTE DISPERSOS.LUEGO
DENTRO DE 60 NM E SEMICIRCULO … Y DE 14N A 21N ENTRE 110W Y
113W .

. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCIA ZONE / vaguada monz�nica …
MONZ�N DEL CANAL DE 09N80W A 13N103W RESUME LUEGO DE BAJA
CERCA DE PRES 13N117W 12N133W A 08N140W . NO ZCIT E DE 140W .
DISPERSADAS MODERADO DE 11N A 13N ENTRE 98W 100W … Y DE
07N A 11N ENTRE 101W 109W Y … Y DENTRO DE 120 NM NW
Semic�rculo de 13N117W CERCA DE BAJA .

. PRONOSTICADOR LEWITSKY . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA HONOLULU HI
PAC�FICO NORTE ECUADOR A 30N ENTRE 140W Y 160E

SINOPSIS V�LIDO 0600 UTC 13 de octubre 2013 .
24 HORAS Pron�stico v�lido 0600 UTC 14 de octubre 2013 .
48 HORAS Pron�stico v�lido 0600 UTC 15 de octubre 2013 .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

. NINGUNO.

. SINOPSIS Y PRON�STICO .

. BAJA CERCA 08N169E 1007 MB MOVIMIENTO W 25 KT . VAGUADA DE BAJA A
10N172E A 09N178E Y DE BAJA A 06N165E A 04N160E . DISPERSADAS
MODERADA A FUERTE EN Lluvias 360 NM SUR DE LA L�NEA DEL CANAL Y
DENTRO DE 180 NM al norte de vaguada .
0.24 hora Pron�stico BAJA CERCA 13N166E 1007 MB . VAGUADA DE BAJA A
13N173E A 09N160E .
0.48 hora Pron�stico BAJA MOVIDO W DE PRON�STICOS DE �REA . CANAL DE
12N160E A 16N165E .

. COLD FRONT DE 30N163W A 28N170W 27N177W PARA M�VILES E 15 KT .
0.24 hora Pron�stico FRENTE DE 30N151W A 28N160W A 27N177W .
0.48 hora Pron�stico POCO CAMBIO .

. CANAL DE 19N178W A 15N175W A 13N168W . DISPERSADAS MODERADO
A Lluvias fuerte dentro de 240 NM de Canal .
0.24 hora Pron�stico CANAL DE 17N178W A 14N174W A 12N170W .
0.48 hora Pron�stico CANAL DE 15N178W A 12N175W A 10N171W .

. RIDGE DE 30N143W A 23N150W .
0.24 hora Pron�stico POCO CAMBIO .
0.48 HORA PREVISTA DE RIDGE 30N140W A 26N148W .

. VIENTOS 20 KT O MENOS DE PRON�STICOS DE �REA TOTAL .

SEAS . EDIFICIO DE 8 pies o m�s .
0.24 hora Pron�stico OLEAJE DE 8 A 9 metros del 30N A 27N ENTRE 174W
Y 160W .
0.48 hora Pron�stico MARES 8 A 10 M DE 30N A 26N ENTRE 168W
Y 151W .

SEAS . 8 FT O MENOS DE PRON�STICOS DE �REA RESTO .

. ZCIT DE 08N141W A 06N152W A 09N162W A 07N173W . AISLADA
Lluvias moderadas dentro 180 Nm de ZCIT .

$ $
. PRONOSTICADOR A Bedal . HONOLULU HI . =

Vietnam: Typhoon 24W Nari 151200Z near 16.0N 106.0E , moving W at 15 knots (JMA) downgraded to Tropical Depression – 151013 1905z

Tropical Depression (24W) Nari / Santi

“Typhoon Nari hits Vietnam ”-� Dr. Jeff Masters // Weather Underground�

Typhoon 24W (Nari) downgraded to Tropical Depression (JMA)

Nari hits Vietnam, but Laos, Cambodia, Thailand be aware!

(Scroll down for translations and Maritime Warnings)

(Mag-scroll pababa para sa mga pagsasalin at Maritime Babala)

(Di chuyển xuống cho c�c bản dịch v� cảnh b�o h�ng hải)

(ສັດທະເລສໍາລັບການແປພາສາແລະການເຕືອນໄພທະເລ)

(����͹ŧ����Ѻ�������Ф���͹����Թ����)

(រមូរចុះក្រោមសម្រាប់ការបកប្រែនិងការព្រមាននាវាចរណ៍)

TD
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 15 October 2013

<Analyses at 15/12 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position	N16°00′(16.0°)
	E106°00′(106.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure	1000hPa

PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

As of today, There is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

National Center for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) Vietnam

Data not available

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

• Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 026� (FINAL WARNING)�
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z — NEAR 15.9N 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 108.2E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 15.6N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 15.7N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 16.2N 102.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 107.7E.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 8 NM SOUTH OF DA NANG,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 142326Z TRMM IMAGE
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TY 24W HAS MOVED ASHORE INTO CENTRAL
VIETNAM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2013 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.9 N 108.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
�Vietnam
��������probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
��������probability for TS is 100% currently
����Laos
��������probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% currently
��������probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
��������probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
��������probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Cambodia
��������probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
����Thailand
��������probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% currently
����Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
��������probability for TS is 90% currently
����Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
��������probability for TS is 80% currently
����Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
��������probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other Reports

Typhoon Nari hits Vietnam

“Torrential rains are falling in Southeast Asia due to Typhoon Nari, which made landfall near Da Nang around 03 UTC on Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. The eye passed 10 miles south of Da Nang, putting the city in the stronger northern semicircle of the storm. Da Nang recorded top sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 81 mph, and picked up 4.06″ of rain. Damage is heavy in Da Nang, and at least five deaths are being blamed on the storm. Nari battered the Philippines on Friday, killing thirteen people and leaving 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon. ” -� Dr. Jeff Masters // Weather Underground� 2:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2013

Typhoon Nari Huffs, Puffs and Brings Floods to Vietnam

By Vu Trong Khanh | The Wall Street Journal

“HANOI _ Typhoon Nari hit the coastal city of Danang on Tuesday morning, killing at least five people, knocking down trees, damaging hundreds of houses and sinking dozens of fishing boats.

The storm has since weakened and is forecast to be downgraded to a tropical storm later today, but officials say it has triggered heavy rains that may cause dangerous floods — meaning worse could be yet to come.

Water levels in local rivers in central Vietnam are rising rapidly and people in central provinces, as well as the Central Highland, should beware of landslides and flash floods, say officials at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, which monitors severe weather events.

It said rains in the area ranged from 112 millimeters to 396 millimeters over the past 24 hours.

“Fallen trees and [detached] roofs are seen everywhere,” Le Van Tien, an official at Danang’s anti-flood and storm department told The Wall Street Journal. “Winds have subsided now, but it is still raining very heavily.”

Early reports from the provincial anti-flood and storm departments showed that the typhoon had killed at least three people and left one missing in Quang Nam and injured 11 people in Danang. Before making landfall in Vietnam, Nari killed at least 15 people in the Philippines.

Vietnam Airlines, the country’s flagship carrier, has cancelled or delayed flights to and from Danang and nearby Hue City.Â�State-run Vietnam Electricity Group said the typhoon has caused blackouts in Danang and several other provinces in the country’s central region, making it difficult to determine the extent of the damage.

“We are having trouble updating the situation from many districts due to the power cuts,” said an official with Quang Nam’s anti-flood and storm department. He said the death toll could rise further as more information came in.

Nari is the 11th major storm or typhoon to hit Vietnam this year. Ahead of its landfall, authorities in the central provinces evacuated more than 123,000 people and ordered 68,000 boats ashore, according to the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control.

More than 190 people have been killed by floods, storms and other natural calamities since January.”

MARITIME

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1325 NARI (1325) 965 HPA
AT 16.3N 110.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 16.4N 108.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 16.1N 106.1E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 151200

2:31:11:11:00

BT

PAN PAN=

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

AT 1530UTC OCT.15 2013=

MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC OCT. 15=

FORECAST VALID 1200UTC OCT. 16=

WARNNING=

TY WIPHA 1326(1326) 960HPA AT 30.5N 136.3E MOVING

NE 65KM/H AND MAX WINDS 38M/S NEAR CENTER (SEAS UP

TO 9.0M) AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS 380KM AND

RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS 100KM AND FORECAST FOR

161200UTC AT 43.6N 147.9E 985HPA MAX WINDS 23M/S

NEAR CENTER=

SUMMARY=

N/W WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER

BOHAI STRAIT AND NORTH PART OF YELLOW SEA=

N/NE WINDS FROM 11 TO 20M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER

MIDDLE AND SOUTH PART OF YELLOW SEA AND SOUTH PART

OF EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT=

N/NE WINDS FROM 13 TO 24M/S GUST 28M/S SEAS UP TO

4.0M OVER NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=

E/NE WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER NORTH PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

NE WINDS FROM 11 TO 20M/ SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER

JAPAN SEA AND KOREA STRAIT=

WINDS FROM 17 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 6.0M OVER SEA

SOUTH OF JAPAN=

WINDS FROM 29 TO 38M/S SEAS UP TO 9.0M OVER SEA

NEAR CENTER OF WIPHA=

WINDS FROM 13 TO 24M/S SEAS UP TO 4.5M OVER SEA

EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA WEST OF BONIN

ISLANDS=

HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER ANDAMAN

SEA AND NORTH PART OF THAILAND GULF AND SEA WEST

OF SUMATERA AND SUNDA STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF

SINGAPORE AND LAUT JAWA AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND

LAUT MALUKU=

FORECAST=

NLY WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUST 20M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER BOHAI STRAIT=

WINDS FROM 11 TO 20M/S GUST 24M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M

OVER YELLOW SEA AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND NORTH

AND MID-WEST PARTS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BASHI

CHANNEL AND BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT=

WINDS FROM 13 TO 24M/S GUST 28M/S SEAS UP TO 4.5M

OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND KOREA

STRAIT AND JAPAN SEA=

WINDS FROM 17 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO 5.5M OVER SEA

SOUTH OF JAPAN=

WINDS FROM 29 TO 38M/S SEAS UP TO 8.5M OVER SEA

NEAR CENTER OF WIPHA=

WINDS FROM 11 TO 20M/S GUST 21 TO 28M/S SEAS UP TO

4.0M OVER SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND SEA WEST

OF BONIN ISLANDS=

Vietnamese (Translated by Google)

Việt Nam : Bão 24W Nari 151200Z gần 16.0N 106.0E , di chuyển W tại 15 hải lý ( JMA ) hạ cấp xuống áp thấp nhiệt đới – 151.013 1905z

Nhiệt đới suy thoái ( 24W ) Nari / Santi

” Bão Nari hit Việt Nam ” – Tiến sĩ Jeff Masters / / Weather Underground

Bão 24W ( Nari ) hạ cấp xuống áp thấp nhiệt đới ( JMA )

Nari hit Việt Nam , nhưng Lào , Campuchia , Thái Lan được biết !

( Di chuyển xuống cho các bản dịch và cảnh báo hàng hải )

( Mag- cuộn pababa para sa mga pagsasalin tại Maritime Babala )

( Move Down cho c � c Translation v � Scene b � o h � ng Hải )

Cơ quan Khí tượng Nhật Bản
Tất cả các cơn lốc nhiệt đới
TD
Phát hành vào 13:10 UTC , 15 tháng 10 2013
<Analyses Tại 15/12 UTC>
quy mô –
cường độ –
TD
Vị trí trung tâm N16 ° 00 ‘ ( 16.0 ° )
E106 ° 00 ‘ ( 106.0 ° )
Hướng và tốc độ di chuyển W 30km / h ( 15kt )
1000hPa áp lực trung ương

Pagasa – Sở KHCN
Pagasa – Sở KHCN
Philippines khí quyển, Địa vật lý và thiên văn học Quản trị dịch vụ

Tính đến hôm nay , không có cơn bão nhiệt đới hiện có trong khu vực của Philippines Trách nhiệm ( cải cách hành chính )
Trung tâm Quốc gia Dự báo khí tượng thuỷ văn ( NCHMF ) Việt Nam

Không có dữ liệu
Trung tâm cảnh báo bão chung ( JTWC )

(Ảnh: JTWC ) TC Cảnh báo đồ họa ( Nhấn vào ảnh để nguồn )

Google Earth đồ họa Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 150.300
MSGID / GENADMIN / PHẦN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE CẢNH BÁO / /
RMKS /
1 . TYPHOON 24W ( NA RÌ ) Chú ý NR 026 ( cảnh báo cuối cùng )
02 cơn bão nhiệt đới hoạt động trong NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SINH Gió DỰA VÀO TRUNG BÌNH MỘT PHÚT
WIND bán kính có hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
—
Chú ý VỊ TRÍ :
150000Z — 15.9N 108.2E NEAR
CHUYỂN QUA SÁU GIỜ – 260 độ tại 10 KTS
Vị trí chính xác để trong vòng 040 NM
VỊ TRÍ DỰA VÀO TRUNG TÂM nằm qua vệ tinh
HIỆN PHÂN PHỐI WIND :
MAX SINH Gió – 070 KT , Cơn 085 KT
WIND bán kính có hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
Bán kính 064 Gió KT – 025 NM ĐÔNG BẮC Quadrant
025 NM ĐÔNG NAM Quadrant
025 NM SOUTHWEST Quadrant
025 NM NORTHWEST Quadrant
Bán kính 050 Gió KT – 045 NM ĐÔNG BẮC Quadrant
045 NM ĐÔNG NAM Quadrant
045 NM SOUTHWEST Quadrant
045 NM NORTHWEST Quadrant
Bán kính 034 Gió KT – 115 NM ĐÔNG BẮC Quadrant
100 NM ĐÔNG NAM Quadrant
090 NM SOUTHWEST Quadrant
100 NM NORTHWEST Quadrant
Lặp lại thừa nhận : 15.9N 108.2E
—
DỰ BÁO :
12 HRS, VALID AT :
151200Z — 15.6N 106.1E
MAX SINH Gió – 045 KT , Cơn 055 KT
WIND bán kính có hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
Tiêu tan AS bão nhiệt đới YẾU VỀ ĐẤT
VECTOR TO 24 nhân sự thừa nhận : 275 DEG / 10 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT :
160000Z — 15.7N 104.0E
MAX sức gió – 030 KT , Cơn 040 KT
WIND bán kính có hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
Tiêu tan AS bão nhiệt đới YẾU VỀ ĐẤT
VECTOR đến 36 nhân sự thừa nhận : 285 DEG / 09 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT :
161200Z — 16.2N 102.3E
MAX SINH Gió – 020 KT , Cơn 030 KT
WIND bán kính có hiệu lực VỀ NƯỚC MỞ CHỈ
Ăn chơi như bão nhiệt đới YẾU VỀ ĐẤT
—
GHI CHÚ :
VỊ TRÍ 150300Z NEAR 107.7E 15.8N .
TYPHOON 24W ( NA RÌ ) , nằm ​​khoảng 8 NM phía nam Đà Nẵng ,
VIỆT NAM , đã theo dõi WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS VỀ QUÁ KHỨ sáu giờ.
Sửa lỗi VỊ TRÍ MỚI TỪ PGTW VÀ RJTD VÀ TRMM IMAGE 142326Z
Chỉ ra rằng TRUNG TÂM TY 24W đã di chuyển lên bờ VÀO TRUNG ƯƠNG
VIỆT NAM . Cường độ hiện nay dựa trên gần đây chủ Dvorak
VÀ DỰ TOÁN CƯỜNG ĐỘ TỰ ĐỘNG . HỆ THỐNG ĐƯỢC THEO DÕI WESTWARD
Dọc ngoại vi phía nam của một CHỈ ĐẠO RIDGE cận nhiệt đới ĐẾN
NORTH . Cơn bão sẽ tiêu tan dưới ngưỡng CẢNH BÁO
Cường độ 25 hải lý AS nó theo dõi nội địa VỀ TIẾP 36 GIỜ .
Vì vậy, đây là cảnh báo cuối cùng về HỆ THỐNG NÀY CỦA PHẦN
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI . HỆ THỐNG SẼ ĐƯỢC chặt chẽ theo dõi
Các dấu hiệu tái sinh. THAM KHẢO TYPHOON 25W ( WIPHA ) CẢNH BÁO
( WTPN31 PGTW ) CẬP NHẬT CHO Six – GIỜ . / /
NNNN
TSR logoNW Thái Bình Dương : Bão báo phát hành vào ngày 15 tháng 10 năm 2013 00:00 GMT (Final Cảnh báo )

Bão NA RÌ ( 24W ) hiện đang nằm gần 15,9 N 108,2 E được dự báo sẽ tấn công đất đến khả năng sau đây (s) tại thời gian dẫn nhất định ( s ) :

Red Alert Quốc gia (s) hoặc tỉnh (s)
Việt Nam
xác suất cho CAT 1 hoặc cao hơn là 100 % hiện nay
xác suất cho TS là 100 % hiện nay
Lào
xác suất cho CAT 1 hoặc cao hơn là 60 % hiện nay
xác suất cho TS là 100 % hiện nay
Red Alert City ( s ) và thị trấn (s)
Đà Nẵng ( 16,1 N , 108,2 E )
xác suất cho CAT 1 hoặc cao hơn là 100 % hiện nay
xác suất cho TS là 100 % hiện nay

Vàng báo Quốc gia (s) hoặc tỉnh (s)
Campuchia
xác suất cho TS là 85% trong vòng 12 giờ
Thái Lan
xác suất cho TS là 80% trong vòng 12 giờ
Vàng báo Thành phố (s) và thị trấn (s)
Quảng Ngãi ( 15,1 N , 108,8 E )
xác suất cho TS là 100 % hiện nay
Đông Hà ( 16,8 N , 107,1 E )
xác suất cho TS là 90 % hiện nay
Kon Tum ( 14,4 N , 108.0 E )
xác suất cho TS là 80 % hiện nay
Đồng Hới ( 17,5 N , 106,6 E )
xác suất cho TS là 60 % trong vòng 12 giờ

lưu ý rằng
Red Alert ( nặng ) là CAT 1 hoặc cao hơn để từ 31% đến 100 % khả năng .
Thông báo màu vàng ( tăng cao ) là CAT 1 hoặc cao hơn từ 10 % đến 30 % khả năng , hoặc TS trên 50 % xác suất.
CAT 1 có nghĩa là gió bão mạnh ít nhất là 74 mph , 119 km / h hoặc 64 hải lý 1 -min duy trì .
TS có nghĩa là gió mạnh cơn bão nhiệt đới ít nhất 39 mph , 63 km / h hay 34 hải lý 1 -min duy trì .

Đối với thông tin dự báo đồ họa và biết thêm chi tiết vui lòng truy cập http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
báo cáo khác

Bão Nari hit Việt Nam

” Mưa lớn đang rơi xuống trong khu vực Đông Nam Á do bão Nari , mà đã đổ bộ gần Đà Nẵng khoảng 03 UTC hôm thứ tư như một loại 1 cơn bão với sức gió 80 mph . Mắt thông qua 10 dặm về phía nam của Đà Nẵng , đưa thành phố ở phía bắc mạnh hình bán nguyệt của cơn bão . Đà Nẵng ghi nhận những cơn gió đầu bền vững của 55 mph , gusting đến 81 mph , và chọn 4.06 ” của mưa . Thiệt hại nặng nề tại Đà Nẵng , và ít nhất năm người chết đang được đổ lỗi cho cơn bão. Nari đập Philippines hôm thứ Sáu , giết chết mười ba người và khiến 2,1 triệu người không có điện trên đảo Luzon của Philippines . “- Tiến sĩ Jeff Masters / / Weather Underground 14:49 GMT vào ngày 14 tháng 10 năm 2013
Bão Nari Huffs , Puffs và mang đến Lũ lụt tại Việt Nam

Của Vũ Trọng Khanh | The Wall Street Journal

“Hà Nội _ Bão Nari tấn công thành phố ven biển của thành phố Đà Nẵng vào sáng thứ Ba , giết chết ít nhất năm người, gõ xuống cây , gây thiệt hại hàng trăm ngôi nhà và hàng chục vụ chìm tàu đánh cá.

Cơn bão đã suy yếu từ và được dự báo sẽ được hạ cấp xuống một cơn bão nhiệt đới sau ngày hôm nay, nhưng các quan chức nói rằng nó đã gây ra mưa lớn có thể gây ra lũ lụt nguy hiểm – có nghĩa là tồi tệ hơn có thể là chưa đến.

Mực nước trong các sông ở miền Trung Việt Nam đang tăng lên nhanh chóng và người dân các tỉnh miền Trung , cũng như Tây Nguyên , nên hãy cẩn thận của sạt lở đất và lũ quét , các quan chức tại Trung tâm Quốc gia về khí tượng thủy văn dự báo , cho phép quan sát các sự kiện thời tiết khắc nghiệt .

Nó cho biết mưa trong khu vực này dao động từ 112 mm đến 396 mm trong 24 giờ qua.

” Cây Fallen và [ tách ra ] mái nhà được nhìn thấy ở khắp mọi nơi “, ông Lê Văn Tiến , một quan chức của thành phố Đà Nẵng , chống lụt bão và bộ phận nói với tờ The Wall Street Journal . ” Gió đã giảm xuống , nhưng nó vẫn còn mưa rất lớn. ”

Báo cáo ban đầu từ chống lũ tỉnh và các sở cơn bão cho thấy cơn bão đã giết chết ít nhất ba người và khiến một thiếu ở Quảng Nam và làm bị thương 11 người tại Đà Nẵng. Trước khi thực hiện đổ bộ vào Việt Nam , Nari đã giết chết ít nhất 15 người ở Philippines.

Việt Nam Airlines , hãng vận tải hàng đầu của nước này , đã bị hủy bỏ hoặc trì hoãn các chuyến bay đến và đi từ Đà Nẵng và lân cận Huế City. Tập đoàn Điện lực nhà nước Việt Nam cho biết cơn bão đã gây ra mất điện tại Đà Nẵng và một số tỉnh khác trong khu vực trung tâm của đất nước , làm cho nó khó khăn để xác định mức độ thiệt hại .

” Chúng tôi đang gặp khó khăn trong việc cập nhật tình hình từ nhiều huyện do cắt điện , ” một quan chức bộ phận cơn bão của tỉnh Quảng Nam chống lũ và nói . Ông cho biết số người chết có thể tăng cao hơn nữa khi có thêm thông tin bước vào

Nari là cơn bão lớn thứ 11 hoặc bão hưởng tới Việt Nam trong năm nay. Trước đổ bộ, chính quyền các tỉnh miền Trung sơ tán hơn 123.000 người và ra lệnh cho 68.000 tàu thuyền vào bờ, theo Ủy ban Trung ương phòng chống lụt bão .

Hơn 190 người đã thiệt mạng do lũ lụt, bão, thiên tai khác kể từ tháng Giêng. ”
HÀNG HẢI
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 141.200
CẢNH BÁO 141.200 .
CẢNH BÁO GIÁ TRỊ 151.200 .
Cảnh báo được cập nhật mỗi 6 giờ.
Cảnh báo bão .
TYPHOON 1325 NA RÌ (1325 ) 965 HPA
AT 16.3N 110.0E BIỂN ĐÔNG CHUYỂN WESTNORTHWEST 08 hải lý.
Vị trí tốt .
MAX gió 75 KNOTS gần trung tâm .
RADIUS HƠN 50 Gió nút, nơ 60 dặm .
RADIUS HƠN 30 Gió nút, nơ 180 dặm về phía bắc bán nguyệt và 150 dặm
Ghi ở nơi khác .
DỰ BÁO CHO VỊ TRÍ 150000UTC AT 16.4N 108.3E VỚI 50 dặm RADIUS
HÀNH 70 PHẦN TRĂM XÁC SUẤT CIRCLE .
975 HPA , MAX Gió 60 KNOTS gần trung tâm .
DỰ BÁO CHO VỊ TRÍ 151200UTC AT 16.1N 106.1E VỚI 75 dặm RADIUS
HÀNH 70 PHẦN TRĂM XÁC SUẤT CIRCLE .
1002 HPA .
TRỞ THÀNH áp thấp nhiệt đới .

Nhật Bản KHÍ TƯỢNG CƠ QUAN . =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 151.200

2:31:11:11:00

BT

PAN PAN =

THÔNG ĐIỆP CHO NAVAREA XI ( IOR ) do NMC Bắc Kinh

AT 1530UTC OCT.15 2013 =

THÔNG ĐIỆP được cập nhật mỗi 06 GIỜ =

Tóm tắt có hiệu lực 1200UTC Tháng Mười 15 =

DỰ BÁO GIÁ TRỊ 1200UTC Tháng Mười 16 =

WARNNING =

TY WIPHA 1326 (1326) 960HPA AT 30.5N 136.3E CHUYỂN

Bắc 65km / H và MAX Gió 38M / S GẦN TRUNG TÂM ( SEAS UP

TO 9.0M ) và bán kính của 30KTS Gió 380KM VÀ

RADIUS HÀNH 50KTS Gió 100KM VÀ DỰ BÁO CHO

161200UTC AT 43.6N 147.9E 985HPA MAX Gió 23m / S

GẦN TRUNG TÂM =

TÓM TẮT =

N / W Gió từ 08 đến 16 triệu / S SEAS ĐẾN 2.5M VỀ

Bột Hải STRAIT VÀ BẮC PHẦN BIỂN VÀNG =

N / NE Gió từ 11 đến 20 triệu / S SEAS ĐẾN 3.5M VỀ

TRUNG VÀ NAM PHẦN BIỂN VÀNG VÀ NAM PHẦN

Phía đông Trung Quốc và eo biển Đài Loan =

N / NE Gió TỪ 13 ĐẾN 24M / S cơn 28M / S SEAS ĐẾN

4.0m VỀ BẮC Phần phía đông Trung Quốc =

E / NE Gió từ 08 đến 16 triệu / S cơn 20M / S SEAS ĐẾN

2.5M VỀ BẮC PHẦN CỦA BIỂN ĐÔNG =

Gió Đông Bắc từ 11 đến 20 triệu / SEAS ĐẾN 3.0M VỀ

NHẬT BẢN VÀ HÀN QUỐC SEA STRAIT =

Gió TỪ 17 ĐẾN 28M / S SEAS ĐẾN 6.0M VỀ BIỂN

SOUTH NHẬT BẢN =

Gió TỪ 29 ĐẾN 38M / S SEAS ĐẾN 9.0M VỀ BIỂN

GẦN TRUNG TÂM WIPHA =

Gió từ 13 đến 24M / S SEAS ĐẾN 4.5M VỀ BIỂN

EAST của Ryukyu HẢI ĐẢO VÀ BIỂN TÂY Bonin

ĐẢO =

TẦM NHÌN NGANG DƯỚI 10km trên Andaman

SEA VÀ BẮC PHẦN THÁI LAN VỊNH VÀ BIỂN TÂY

HÀNH Sumatra và Sunda Strait và biển Đông của

SINGAPORE- Laut Jawa và Makassar STRAIT VÀ

Laut Maluku =

DỰ BÁO =

Gió nly từ 08 đến 16 triệu / S cơn 20M / S SEAS ĐẾN

2.5M VỀ Bột Hải STRAIT =

Gió từ 11 đến 20 triệu / S cơn 24M / SEAS S ĐẾN 3.0M

VỀ VÀNG biển và biển Đông của Đài Loan VÀ BẮC

Và các bộ phận MID – TÂY BIỂN ĐÔNG VÀ Bashi

CHANNEL và Vịnh Bắc Bộ và QIONGZHOU STRAIT =

Gió từ 13 đến 24M / S cơn 28M / S SEAS ĐẾN 4.5M

VỀ ĐÔNG BIỂN ĐÔNG VÀ eo biển Đài Loan và Hàn Quốc

STRAIT và Nhật Bản SEA =

Gió TỪ 17 ĐẾN 28M / S SEAS ĐẾN 5.5M VỀ BIỂN

SOUTH NHẬT BẢN =

Gió TỪ 29 ĐẾN 38M / S SEAS ĐẾN 8.5m VỀ BIỂN

GẦN TRUNG TÂM WIPHA =

Gió từ 11 đến 20 triệu / S Lốc 21 ĐẾN 28M / S SEAS ĐẾN

4.0m VỀ BIỂN ĐÔNG của Ryukyu HẢI ĐẢO VÀ BIỂN TÂY

HÀNH Bonin ĐẢO =

LAO (Translated by Google)

ປະເທດຫວຽດນາມ : Typhoon 24W Nari 151200Z ໃກ້ 106.0E 16.0N , ການເຄື່ອນຍ້າຍ ໃນ W 15 knots ( JMA ) downgraded ກັບ ຊຶມເສົ້າ Tropical – 151013 1905z

Tropical ການ ຊຶມເສົ້າ ( 24W ) Nari / Santi

” Typhoon Nari hits ປະເທດຫວຽດນາມ ” – ດຣ Jeff ລິນຍາໂທ / ສະພາບອາກາດ / ກໍາ

Typhoon 24W ( Nari ) downgraded ກັບ ຊຶມເສົ້າ Tropical ( JMA )

Nari hits ສສຫວຽດນາມ , ສປປລາວ ແຕ່ວ່າ , ກໍາປູເຈຍ , ປະເທດໄທ ຈະ ຮູ້ !

( ສັດທະເລ ສໍາລັບ ການແປພາສາ ແລະ ການເຕືອນໄພ ທະເລ )

( Mag – ເລື່ອນ pababa ຂາວ Sa mga pagsasalin ຢູ່ໃນ ທະເລ Babala )

( Di chuyển xuống cho c � c ບ້ານ dịch v � cảnh ຂ � o h � ng ໄຮ )

ອົງການ ອຸຕຸນິຍົມ ຂອງຍີ່ປຸ່ນ
ທັງຫມົດ cyclone Tropical
TD
ອອກ ຢູ່ UTC 13:10 , 15 ຕຸລາ 2013
<Analyses ຢູ່ 15/12 UTC>
ຂະຫນາດ –
ຫຼາຍ –
TD
ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ ສູນ N16 ° 00 ‘ ( 16.0 ° )
E106 ° 00 ‘ ( 106.0 ° )
ທິດທາງ ແລະ ຄວາມໄວ ຂອງ ການເຄື່ອນໄຫວ 30km W / h ( 15kt )
1000hPa ຄວາມກົດດັນ ສູນກາງ

PAGASA – DOST
PAGASA – DOST
ຟີລິບປິນ ບັນຍາກາດ , ການບໍລິຫານ ການບໍລິການ Geophysical ແລະ ນັກດາລາສາດ

ໃນຖານະເປັນ ຂອງ ມື້ນີ້ , ຍັງບໍ່ມີ cyclone ເຂດຮ້ອນ ທີ່ມີຢູ່ແລ້ວ ພາຍໃນ ຟີລິບປິນ ເຂດ ຂອງ ຄວາມຮັບຜິດຊອບ ( PAR ) ແມ່ນ
ແຫ່ງຊາດ ສໍາລັບການ ສູນ ໄຟຟ້າ , ອຸຕຸນິຍົມ ຄາດຄະເນການ ( NCHMF ) ຫວຽດນາມ

ຂໍ້ມູນ ບໍ່ທັນມີເທື່ອ
ຄໍາເຕືອນ Typhoon ຮ່ວມ ສູນ ( JTWC )

( ຮູບ : JTWC ) ຄໍາເຕືອນ TC ພາບ ( ຮູບພາບ ລະ ແຫຼ່ງ )

ກູໂກ Overlay ພາບ ໂລກ

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
msgid / GENADMIN / ຮ່ວມ TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL harbor HI / /
ຄໍາເຕືອນ cyclone SUBJ / ລະຍະ Tropical / /
RMKS /
1 . TYPHOON 24W ( NARI ) NR ຄໍາເຕືອນ 026 ( ຄໍາເຕືອນ ສຸດທ້າຍ )
02 cyclone Tropical ກິດຈະກໍາໃນ NORTHWESTPAC
ມາ SUSTAINED ລົມ ອີງໃສ່ການ ສະເລ່ຍ ຫນຶ່ງ ນາທີ
RADII ລົມ ສັບ ກວ່າ ນ້ໍາ ເທົ່ານັ້ນ
—
ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ ຄໍາເຕືອນ:
150000Z — ໄກ້ 15.9N 108.2E
ການເຄື່ອນໄຫວ ມາ ຫົກ ຊົ່ວໂມງ – 260 ອົງສາ 10 KTS
ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ ທີ່ຖືກຕ້ອງ ທີ່ຈະ ຢູ່ພາຍໃນ 040 NM
ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ ອີງໃສ່ການ ສູນ ຕັ້ງຢູ່ ໂດຍ ດາວທຽມ
ການແຜ່ກະຈາຍ ພະລັງງານລົມ ປະຈຸບັນ :
ມາ SUSTAINED ລົມ – 070 KT , GUSTS 085 KT
RADII ລົມ ສັບ ກວ່າ ນ້ໍາ ເທົ່ານັ້ນ
RADIUS ຂອງ ພະລັງງານລົມ 064 KT – 025 NM ອອກສ່ຽງເຫນືອ QUADRANT
025 QUADRANT NM ເວັນອອກສ່ຽງໃຕ້
025 QUADRANT NM ຕາເວັນຕົກສຽງ
025 QUADRANT NM Northwest
RADIUS ຂອງ ພະລັງງານລົມ 050 KT – 045 NM ອອກສ່ຽງເຫນືອ QUADRANT
045 QUADRANT NM ເວັນອອກສ່ຽງໃຕ້
045 QUADRANT NM ຕາເວັນຕົກສຽງ
045 QUADRANT NM Northwest
RADIUS ຂອງ ພະລັງງານລົມ 034 KT – 115 NM ອອກສ່ຽງເຫນືອ QUADRANT
100 QUADRANT NM ເວັນອອກສ່ຽງໃຕ້
090 QUADRANT NM ຕາເວັນຕົກສຽງ
100 QUADRANT NM Northwest
ເຮັດເລື້ມຄືນ ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ : 15.9N 108.2E
—
ການຄາດຄະເນ :
12 HRS , ສັບ ຢູ່ :
151200Z — 15.6N 106.1E
ມາ SUSTAINED ລົມ – 045 KT , GUSTS 055 KT
RADII ລົມ ສັບ ກວ່າ ນ້ໍາ ເທົ່ານັ້ນ
DISSIPATING ເປັນ cyclone Tropical A ມີຄວາມສໍາຄັນ ກັບທີ່ດິນ
vector ຫາ ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ HR 24 : 275 KTS DEG / 10
—
24 HRS , ສັບ ຢູ່ :
160000Z — 15.7N 104.0E
ມາ ລົມ ແບບຍືນຍົງ – 030 KT , GUSTS 040 KT
RADII ລົມ ສັບ ກວ່າ ນ້ໍາ ເທົ່ານັ້ນ
DISSIPATING ເປັນ cyclone Tropical A ມີຄວາມສໍາຄັນ ກັບທີ່ດິນ
vector ຫາ ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ HR 36 : 285 DEG KTS / 09
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36 HRS , ສັບ ຢູ່ :
161200Z — 16.2N 102.3E
ມາ SUSTAINED ລົມ – 020 KT , GUSTS 030 KT
RADII ລົມ ສັບ ກວ່າ ນ້ໍາ ເທົ່ານັ້ນ
DISSIPATED ເປັນ cyclone Tropical A ມີຄວາມສໍາຄັນ ກັບທີ່ດິນ
—
ຂໍ້ສັງເກດ :
ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ 150300Z ໄກ້ 107.7E 15.8N .
TYPHOON 24W ( NARI ) , ຕັ້ງຢູ່ ປະມານ 8 NM ພາກໃຕ້ຂອງ DA ນາງ ,
ຫວຽດນາມ, ມີ TRACKED WESTWARD 10 KNOTS ກວ່າ ໄລຍະຜ່ານມາ ຫົກ ຊົ່ວໂມງ .
ແກ້ໄຂ ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ ທີ່ຜ່ານມາ ຈາກ PGTW ແລະ RJTD ແລະຮູບພາບ TRMM A 142326Z
ລະບຸວ່າການ ສູນກາງ TY 24W ໄດ້ MOVED ຈອດໃກ້ຝັງ ເຂົ້າໄປໃນ ຂັ້ນສູນກາງ
. ປະເທດຫວຽດນາມ ໃນ ຫຼາຍ ປະຈຸບັນແມ່ນ ອີງໃສ່ການ ທີ່ຜ່ານມາ Subject DVORAK
ແລະຄາດຄະເນ ອັດຕະໂນມັດ ຫຼາຍ . ລະບົບ ແມ່ນ ການຕິດຕາມ WESTWARD
ຕາມ PERIPHERY ພາກໃຕ້ຂອງ ສັນຕາມລວງຍາວ ຊີ້ນ Subtropical ຕາມ
. ພາກເຫນືອ cyclone ຈະ ລະລາຍໄປ ຂ້າງລຸ່ມນີ້ ໃກ້ເຂົ້າສູ່ ເຕືອນໄພ
ສຸມ ຂອງ 25 KNOTS ເປັນ TRACKS ແຫຼ່ງ ໄລຍະຕໍ່ໄປ 36 ຊົ່ວໂມງ .
ເພາະສະນັ້ນ, ນີ້ແມ່ນ ຄໍາເຕືອນ ສຸດທ້າຍ ລະບົບ ນີ້ໂດຍການ ຮ່ວມ
TYPHOON WRNCEN HI PEARL harbor . ລະບົບ ຈະໄດ້ຮັບການ ຕິດຕາມ ຢ່າງໃກ້ຊິດ
ສໍາລັບ ອາການຂອງການ ຟື້ນຟູ . ອ້າງອີງເຖິງ TYPHOON 25W ການເຕືອນໄພ ( WIPHA )
( WTPN31 PGTW ) ສໍາລັບການ ປັບປຸງໃຫ້ທັນ ຫົກ ຊົ່ວໂມງ . / /
NNNN
TSR logoNW ປາຊີຟິກ : Alert ພາຍຸ ອອກ ຢູ່ທີ່ 15 ຕຸລາ , 2013 0:00 GMT ( ຄໍາເຕືອນ ສຸດທ້າຍ )

Typhoon NARI ( 24W ) ຕັ້ງຢູ່ ໃນປະຈຸບັນ ຢູ່ໃກ້ 15.9 N 108,2 ອີ ຄາດຄະເນວ່າ ການ ໂຈມຕີ ທີ່ດິນ ກັບ ຄວາມເປັນໄປ ດັ່ງຕໍ່ໄປນີ້ ( s ) ສຸດ ທີ່ໃຊ້ເວລາ ຜູ້ນໍາ ໃຫ້ ( s ) :

ປະເທດ ສີແດງ Alert ( s ) ຫຼື ແຂວງ ( s )
ປະເທດຫວຽດນາມ
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບ cat 1 ຫຼື ຂ້າງເທິງ ແມ່ນ 100 % ໃນປະຈຸບັນ
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບການ TS ເປັນ 100 % ໃນປະຈຸບັນ
ສປປລາວ
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບ cat 1 ຫຼື ຂ້າງເທິງ ແມ່ນ 60 % ໃນປະຈຸບັນ
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບການ TS ເປັນ 100 % ໃນປະຈຸບັນ
ສີແດງ Alert ເມືອງ ( s ) ແລະ ເມືອງ ( s )
DA ນາງ ( 16.1 N , ອີ 108,2 )
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບ cat 1 ຫຼື ຂ້າງເທິງ ແມ່ນ 100 % ໃນປະຈຸບັນ
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບການ TS ເປັນ 100 % ໃນປະຈຸບັນ

ປະເທດ Alert ສີເຫຼືອງ ( s ) ຫຼື ແຂວງ ( s )
ກໍາປູເຈຍ
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບການ TS ເປັນ 85 % ພາຍໃນ 12 ຊົ່ວໂມງ
ປະເທດໄທ
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບການ TS ເປັນ 80 % ພາຍໃນ 12 ຊົ່ວໂມງ
ສີເຫຼືອງ Alert ເມືອງ ( s ) ແລະ ເມືອງ ( s )
ກວາງ Ngai ( 15.1 N , ອີ 108,8 )
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບການ TS ເປັນ 100 % ໃນປະຈຸບັນ
ດົງ ຫ້າ ( 16.8 N , ອີ 107,1 )
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບການ TS ເປັນ 90 % ໃນປະຈຸບັນ
Kon Tum ( 14.4 N , ອີ 108,0 )
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບການ TS ເປັນ 80 % ໃນປະຈຸບັນ
Dong Hoi ( 17.5 N , ອີ 106,6 )
ຄາດຄະເນການ ສໍາລັບການ TS ເປັນ 60 % ພາຍໃນ 12 ຊົ່ວໂມງ

ໃຫ້ສັງເກດວ່າ
ສີແດງ Alert ( ທີ່ຮ້າຍແຮງ ) ແມ່ນ cat 1 ຫຼື ຂ້າງເທິງ ທີ່ຈະ ຢູ່ລະຫວ່າງ 31 % ແລະ ຄາດຄະເນການ 100% .
ສີເຫຼືອງ Alert ( ຟ ) ແມ່ນ 1 cat ຫຼື ຂ້າງເທິງ ທີ່ຈະ ໄດ້ລະຫວ່າງ 10 % ແລະ ຄາດຄະເນການ 30% , ຫຼື TS ຫາ ຂ້າງເທິງ ຄາດຄະເນການ 50% .
1 cat ຫມາຍຄວາມວ່າ ລົມ Typhoon ຄວາມເຂັ້ມແຂງ ຢ່າງຫນ້ອຍ 74 mph , 119 ກິໂລແມັດ / h ຫຼື 64 knots 1- min sustained .
TS ຫມາຍຄວາມວ່າ ລົມ ພາຍຸ ຄວາມເຂັ້ມແຂງ ຍະ Tropical ການ ຢ່າງຫນ້ອຍ 39 mph , 63 ກິໂລແມັດ / h ຫຼື 34 knots 1- min sustained .

ສໍາລັບ ຂໍ້ມູນຂ່າວສານ ພະຍາກອນ ຮູບພາບ ແລະລາຍລະອຽດ ເພີ່ມເຕີມ ກະລຸນາ ໄປຢ້ຽມຢາມ http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
ບົດລາຍງານ ອື່ນໆ

Typhoon ປະເທດຫວຽດນາມ Nari hits

” ຝົນຕົກ torrential ແມ່ນ ຫຼຸດລົງ ໃນ ອາຊີຕາເວັນ ຍ້ອນ Typhoon Nari , ຊຶ່ງ ເຮັດໃຫ້ landfall ໃກ້ DA ນາງ ມານ 03 UTC ໃນວັນພຸດ ເປັນ ຫມວດ 1 typhoon ມີ 80 mph ລົມ . ຕາ ຜ່ານ 10 ໄມ ພາກໃຕ້ຂອງ DA ນາງ , ການວາງ ນະຄອນ ໃນ ພາກເຫນືອຂອງ ທີ່ເຂັ້ມແຂງ ຂອງ semicircle ຫມໍ ໄດ້ . DA ນາງ ບັນທຶກ ລົມ ແບບຍືນຍົງ ຂອງ ທາງເທີງ 55 mph , gusting ກັບ 81 mph , ແລະ ເກັບ ຂຶ້ນ 4,06 ” ຝົນຕົກຫນັກ . ແມ່ນ ຄວາມ ຮຸນແຮງ ໃນ DA ນາງ , ແລະຢ່າງຫນ້ອຍ ຫ້າ ເສຍຊີວິດ ແມ່ນໄດ້ຖືກ blamed ກ່ຽວກັບ ການ ປົກຄອງ . Nari battered ຟີລິບປິນ ໃນວັນສຸກ, ຂ້າ ປະຊາຊົນ ແລະ thirteen ໄວ້ 2.1 ລ້ານຄົນ ບໍ່ມີ ໄຟຟ້າ ໃນເກາະ ຟີລິບປິນ ໃນ ຕົ້ນຕໍ ຂອງ Luzon ” – . ລິນຍາໂທ ດຣ Jeff / ສະພາບອາກາດ / ກໍາ 2:49 PM GMT on ຕຸລາ 14 , 2013
Huffs Typhoon Nari , Puffs ແລະ ນໍາ ້ໍາຖ້ວມ ປະເທດຫວຽດນາມ

ໂດຍ VU Trong Khanh | ການ Wall Street Journal

” ຮ່າໂນ້ຍ _ Typhoon Nari ຕົກ ນະຄອນ coastal ຂອງ Danang ສຸດ ໃນຕອນເຊົ້າ ວັນອັງຄານ , ຂ້າ ຢ່າງຫນ້ອຍ ຫ້າ ປະຊາຊົນ , ລົງ knocking ຕົ້ນໄມ້, ການທໍາລາຍ ຫຼາຍຮ້ອຍຄົນ ຂອງ ບ້ານເຮືອນແລະ ອາຍແກັສ ການຫລົ້ມຈົມ ຂອງເຮືອ ຫາປາ .

ຫມໍ ໄດ້ ນັບຕັ້ງແຕ່ weakened ແລະ ຄາດຄະເນວ່າ ຈະ downgraded ໄປ ປົກຄອງ ເຂດຮ້ອນ ມື້ນີ້ ຫຼັງຈາກນັ້ນ , ແຕ່ ພະນັກງານ ເວົ້າວ່າ ມັນ ໄດ້ triggered ຝົນຕົກຫນັກ ທີ່ອາດຈະ ເຮັດໃຫ້ເກີດ ອັນຕະລາຍ ້ໍາຖ້ວມ – ຊຶ່ງຫມາຍຄວາມ ຮ້າຍແຮງຂຶ້ນ ອາດຈະ ທັນ ມາ .

ລະດັບ ນ້ໍາ ໃນ ແມ່ນ້ໍາ ຂອງທ້ອງຖິ່ນ ໃນພາກກາງຂອງ ປະເທດຫວຽດນາມ ໄດ້ ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ ຢ່າງໄວວາ ແລະ ປະຊາຊົນ ໃນ ບັນດາແຂວງ ພາກກາງ , ເຊັ່ນດຽວກັນກັບ ສູນກາງ ເຂດທີ່ສູງ , ຄວນ ລະວັງ ຂອງ landslide ້ໍາຖ້ວມ ແລະ flash , ພະນັກງານ ຢູ່ ສູນ ແຫ່ງຊາດ ສໍາລັບການ ຄາດຄະເນການ ໄຟຟ້າ , ອຸຕຸນິຍົມ , ຊຶ່ງ monitors ເຫດການ ດິນຟ້າອາກາດ ທີ່ຮຸນແຮງ ເວົ້າວ່າ .

ມັນ ເວົ້າວ່າ ຝົນຕົກ ໃນ ເຂດພື້ນທີ່ ranged ຈາກ 112 ມີລີແມັດ ກັບ 396 ມີລີແມັດ ໃນໄລຍະ ທີ່ຜ່ານມາ ໃນ 24 ຊົ່ວໂມງ .

” ຕົ້ນໄມ້ທີ່ ຫຼົ່ນເອງ ແລະ [ detached ] ມຸງ ແມ່ນເຫັນ ຢູ່ທົ່ວທຸກແຫ່ງ , ” Le Van Tien , ຢ່າງເປັນທາງການ ຢູ່ທີ່ Danang ຂອງ ການຕ້ານ ໄພນໍ້າຖ້ວມ ແລະ ພະແນກ ການ ປົກຄອງ ໄດ້ ບອກ Wall Street ວາລະສານ . ” ພະລັງງານລົມ ໄດ້ subsided ໃນປັດຈຸບັນ , ແຕ່ວ່າມັນກໍ ຍັງ raining ຫຼາຍ ຫຼາຍ . ”

ບົດລາຍງານການ ເລີ່ມຕົ້ນ ມາຈາກ ແຂວງ ຕ້ານ ນ້ໍາ ແລະ ພະແນກການ ປົກຄອງ ສະແດງໃຫ້ເຫັນ ວ່າ typhoon ໄດ້ ຖືກຂ້າຕາຍ ຢ່າງຫນ້ອຍ ສາມຄົນ ແລະ ປະໄວ້ ດຽວ ຫາຍ ໃນ ກວາງ ນ້ໍາ ແລະ ໄດ້ຮັບບາດເຈັບ 11 ຄົນ ໃນ Danang . ກ່ອນທີ່ຈະ ເຮັດໃຫ້ landfall ໃນ ປະເທດຫວຽດນາມ , Nari ຂ້າ ຢ່າງຫນ້ອຍ 15 ຄົນ ໃນຟີລິບປິນ .

ສາຍການບິນ ຫວຽດນາມ , ບັນທຸກ flagship ຂອງປະເທດ , ໄດ້ ຍົກເລີກ ຫຼື ຊັກຊ້າ ການບິນໄປຫາ ແລະ ຈາກ Hue Danang ແລະ ໃກ້ຄຽງ City. ລັດ , ໄລຍະ ກຸ່ມ ໄຟຟ້າ ສສຫວຽດນາມ ກ່າວວ່າ typhoon ໄດ້ ເກີດມາຈາກ blackouts ໃນ ແຂວງອື່ນໆ Danang ແລະຄວາມຮຸນແຮງ ໃນ ເຂດພາກກາງ ຂອງປະເທດ , ເຮັດໃຫ້ມັນ ມີຄວາມຫຍຸ້ງຍາກ ການກໍານົດ ຂອບເຂດ ຂອງ ຄວາມເສຍຫາຍ ດັ່ງກ່າວ .

” ພວກເຮົາ ມີ ບັນຫາໃນ ການປັບປຸງ ສະຖານະການ ຈາກ ເມືອງ ຈໍານວນຫຼາຍ ຍ້ອນການ ຕັດ ພະລັງງານ , ” ຢ່າງເປັນທາງການ ກັບ ກວາງ ນ້ໍາ ຂອງ ການຕ້ານ ໄພນໍ້າຖ້ວມ ແລະ ພະແນກ ການ ປົກຄອງ ໄດ້ . ພຣະອົງກ່າວວ່າ ການເສຍຊີວິດ ໂທຣ ສາມາດ ເພີ່ມສູງຂຶ້ນ ໃນຕໍ່ຫນ້າ ເປັນ ຂໍ້ມູນເພີ່ມເຕີມ ມາ ເຂົ້າ

Nari ແມ່ນ ປົກຄອງ ທີ່ສໍາຄັນ ທີ 11 ຫຼື typhoon ເພື່ອ ມົນຕີ ສສຫວຽດນາມ ໃນປີນີ້ . ກ່ອນກ່ອນເວລາ ຂອງ landfall ຂອງຕົນ , ອໍານາດການປົກ ໃນ ບັນດາແຂວງ ພາກກາງແລະ evacuated ຫຼາຍກວ່າ 123.000 ຄົນ ແລະ ຄໍາສັ່ງ 68.000 ເຮືອ ຈອດໃກ້ຝັງ , ອີງຕາມການ ຄະນະກໍາມະ ການສູນກາງ ສໍາລັບ ້ໍາຖ້ວມ ແລະ ພາຍຸ ການຄວບຄຸມ .

ຫຼາຍກ່ວາ 190 ປະຊາຊົນໄດ້ ຖືກຂ້າຕາຍ ໂດຍ ພາຍຸ , ແລະ ໄພນໍ້າຖ້ວມ ເຊັ່ນ: ໄພ ທໍາມະຊາດ ອື່ນໆ ນັບຕັ້ງແຕ່ ເດືອນມັງກອນ . ”
ທະເລ
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 141200
141200 ຄໍາເຕືອນ .
ເຕືອນ ອາຍຸ 151200 .
ຄໍາເຕືອນ ຖືກ ປັບປຸງ ທຸກໆ 6 ຊົ່ວໂມງ .
ຄໍາເຕືອນ TYPHOON .
TYPHOON 1325 NARI ( 1325 ) 965 HPA
ໃນ 16.3N 110.0E South China Sea ການເຄື່ອນຍ້າຍ WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS .
position ດີ.
ມາ WINDS 75 KNOTS ໄກ້ ສູນ .
RADIUS ຫຼາຍກວ່າ 50 ລົມ KNOT 60 ໄມ .
RADIUS ກວ່າ 30 ລົມ KNOT 180 ໄມ ພາກເຫນືອ SEMICIRCLE ແລະ 150 ຄົນ
ຢູ່ບ່ອນອື່ນ .
ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ ການຄາດຄະເນ ສໍາລັບການ 150000UTC ໃນ 16.4N 108.3E ກັບ 50 RADIUS ໄມ
ຂອງ 70 ແຜ່ນປ້າຍວົງກົມ ເປັນ ເປີເຊັນ .
975 HPA , ມາ ລົມ 60 KNOTS ໄກ້ ສູນ .
ຕໍາແຫນ່ງ ການຄາດຄະເນ ສໍາລັບການ 151200UTC ໃນ 16.1N 106.1E ກັບ 75 RADIUS ໄມ
ຂອງ 70 ແຜ່ນປ້າຍວົງກົມ ເປັນ ເປີເຊັນ .
1002 HPA .
ກາຍມາເປັນ ຊຶມເສົ້າ ຮ້ອນ .

ຕົວແທນ ປະເທດຍີ່ປຸ່ນ ອຸຕຸນິຍົມ . =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 151200

2:31:11:11:00

BT

= Pan Pan

ຂ່າວສານ ສໍາລັບການ NAVAREA XI ( IOR ) ອອກໃຫ້ໂດຍ NMC ປັກກິ່ງ

ໃນ 1530UTC OCT.15 2013 =

ຂ່າວສານທີ່ ຖືກ ປັບປຸງ ໃນທຸກໆ 06 ຊົ່ວໂມງ =

SYNOPSIS ສັບ Oct 1200UTC . 15 =

ການຄາດຄະເນ ອາຍຸ 1200UTC Oct . 16 =

WARNNING =

TY WIPHA 1326 (1326) 960HPA ໃນ 30.5N 136.3E ການເຄື່ອນຍ້າຍ

NE 65KM / h ແລະ ມາ ລົມ 38M / s ໄກ້ ສູນ ( SEAS ເຖິງ

ໄປ 9.0M ) ແລະ RADIUS ຂອງ 30KTS ລົມ 380KM ແລະ

RADIUS ຂອງ 50KTS ລົມ 100KM ແລະ ການຄາດຄະເນ ສໍາລັບການ

161200UTC ໃນ 43.6N 147.9E 985HPA ມາ ລົມ 23M / s

ໄກ້ ສູນ =

= ຮວບ

ພະລັງງານລົມ N / W ຈາກ 08 ຈະ 16M / SEAS S ສູງເຖິງ 2.5M ກວ່າ

BOHAI Strait ແລະ ພາກ ເຫນືອ ທະເລ ເຫຼືອງ =

N / NE ລົມ ຈາກ ການທີ 11 ເຖິງ SEAS 20M / s ເຖິງ 3.5M ກວ່າ

ພາກ ກາງແລະ ພາກໃຕ້ຂອງ ຊີ ສີເຫຼືອງແລະ ພາກ ໃຕ້

ພາກຕາເວັນອອກ ຂອງ ຈີນ ຊີ ແລະໃຕ້ຫວັນ Strait =

ພະລັງງານລົມ N / NE ຈາກ 13 24M / s SEAS 28M / s GUST ເຖິງ

4.0M ກວ່າ ພາກ ເຫນືອ ຂອງ ພາກຕາເວັນອອກ ຈີນ ຊີ =

ພະລັງງານລົມ ອີເມລ / NE ຈາກ 08 ຈະ 16M / s SEAS 20M / s GUST ເຖິງ

2.5M ກວ່າ ພາກ ເຫນືອ ຂອງ South China Sea =

ພະລັງງານລົມ NE ຈາກ 11 ເຖິງ 20M / SEAS ເຖິງ 3.0M ກວ່າ

ປະເທດຍີ່ປຸ່ນ ຊີ ແລະເກົາຫຼີ Strait =

ພະລັງງານລົມ ຈາກ 17 ຈະ SEAS 28M / s ເຖິງ 6.0M ກວ່າ ຊີ

ພາກໃຕ້ຂອງ ປະເທດຍີ່ປຸ່ນ =

ພະລັງງານລົມ ຈາກ 29 ຈະ 38M SEAS / S ສູງເຖິງ 9.0M ກວ່າ ຊີ

ໄກ້ ສູນກາງທາງ WIPHA =

ພະລັງງານລົມ ຈາກ 13 24M SEAS / S ສູງເຖິງ 4.5M ກວ່າ ຊີ

ຕາເວັນອອກຂອງ ເກາະ RYUKYU ແລະ ຊີ ຕາເວັນຕົກຂອງ BONIN

= ເກາະ

ສັງເກດເຫັນ ຢູ່ຕາມເສັ້ນນອນ ຫນ້ອຍກວ່າ 10KM ກວ່າ ອັນດາມັນ

ພາກ ຊີ ແລະພາກເຫນືອ ຂອງປະເທດໄທ Gulf ແລະ ຊີ ຕາເວັນຕົກ

ຂອງ SUMATERA ແລະ SUNDA Strait ແລະ ຊີ ຕາເວັນອອກຂອງ

ສິງກະໂປແລະ LAUT JAWA ແລະ MAKASSAR Strait ແລະ

= LAUT MALUKU

= ການຄາດຄະເນ

ພະລັງງານລົມ NLY ຈາກ 08 ຈະ 16M / s SEAS 20M / s GUST ເຖິງ

2.5M ກວ່າ BOHAI Strait =

ພະລັງງານລົມ ຈາກ ການທີ 11 ເຖິງ 20M / s GUST 24M / SEAS S ສູງເຖິງ 3.0M

ກວ່າ ເຫຼືອງ ຊີ ຊີ ແລະ ຕາເວັນອອກຂອງ ໄຕ້ຫວັນແລະ ພາກເຫນືອ

ແລະພາກສ່ວນ ເຄິ່ງ ຕາເວັນຕົກຂອງ South China Sea ແລະ BASHI

ຊ່ອງທາງການ ແລະ BEIBU Gulf ແລະ QIONGZHOU Strait =

ພະລັງງານລົມ ຈາກ 13 24M / s SEAS 28M / s GUST ເຖິງ 4.5M

ກວ່າ ຕາເວັນອອກ China Sea ແລະໃຕ້ຫວັນ Strait ແລະເກົາຫຼີ

Strait ແລະຍີ່ປຸ່ນ ຊີ =

ພະລັງງານລົມ ຈາກ 17 ຈະ SEAS 28M / s ເຖິງ 5.5M ກວ່າ ຊີ

ພາກໃຕ້ຂອງ ປະເທດຍີ່ປຸ່ນ =

ພະລັງງານລົມ ຈາກ 29 ຈະ 38M SEAS / S ສູງເຖິງ 8.5M ກວ່າ ຊີ

ໄກ້ ສູນກາງທາງ WIPHA =

ພະລັງງານລົມ ຈາກ ການທີ 11 ເຖິງ GUST 20M / S ການທີ 21 ເຖິງ SEAS 28M / s ເຖິງ

4.0M ກວ່າ ຊີ ຕາເວັນອອກຂອງ ເກາະ RYUKYU ແລະ ຊີ ຕາເວັນຕົກ

ຂອງ BONIN ເກາະ =

KHMER (Translated by Google)

ប្រទេសវៀតណាម: 24W ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ណារី 151200Z នៅក្បែរ 106.0E 16.0N ការផ្លាស់ទី សរសេរ នៅ 15 knots ( JMA ) បានបន្ទាប ទៅ depression ត្រូពិក – 151013 1905z

ត្រូពិច depression ( 24W ) ណារី / Santi

” ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ណារី ទស្សនា ប្រទេសវៀតណាម ” – លោកបណ្ឌិត លោក Jeff ថ្នាក់អនុបណ្ឌិត / អាកាសធាតុ / នៅក្រោមដី

ខ្យល់ព្យុះ 24W ( ណារី ) បានបន្ទាប ទៅ depression ត្រូពិក ( JMA )

ណារី ទស្សនា ប្រទេសវៀតណាម នោះទេប៉ុន្តែ ប្រទេសឡាវ , ប្រទេសកម្ពុជា , ប្រទេសថៃ ត្រូវដឹង !

( រមូរចុះក្រោម សម្រាប់ ការបកប្រែ និងការព្រមាន នាវាចរណ៍ )

( Mag – រមូរ pababa Para SA mga pagsasalin នៅ នាវាចរណ៍ Babala )

( Di chuyển xuống Cho គ គ � ការហាមប្រាម dịch V � cảnh ខ � o េ ជ � Ng hai )

ទីភ្នាក់ងារ ជប៉ុន Meteorological
ទាំងអស់ Cyclones ត្រូពិក
TD
បានចេញ នៅ 13:10 UTC ទី 15 ខែតុលា ឆ្នាំ 2013
<Analyses នៅ 15/12 UTC>
ធ្វើមាត្រដ្ឋាន –
្របពលភព –
TD
ទីតាំង មជ្ឈមណ្ឌល N16 ° 00 ‘( 16.0 ° )
E106 ° 00 ‘( 106.0 ° )
ទិសដៅ និងល្បឿននៃ ចលនា សរសេរ 30km / ម៉ោង ( 15kt )
1000hPa សម្ពាធ កណ្តាល

PAGASA – DOST
PAGASA – DOST
ហ្វីលីពីន ្រិយកាស , ការគ្រប់គ្រង សេវា Geophysical និង តារាវិទ្យា

ក្នុងនាមជា បច្ចុប្បន្ននេះ មិនមាន cyclone ត្រូពិច ដែលមានស្រាប់ នៅក្នុង តំបន់ នៃប្រទេសហ្វីលីពីនដែល ការទទួលខុសត្រូវ ( Par ) គឺ
មជ្ឈមណ្ឌលជាតិ សម្រាប់ការ hydro – meteorological ការទស្សទាយ ( NCHMF ) ប្រទេសវៀតណាម

ទិន្នន័យ មិនអាចប្រើបាន
ការព្រមាន ខ្យល់ព្យុះ រួមរបស់ មជ្ឈមណ្ឌល ( JTWC )

( រូបភាព : JTWC ) ព្រមាន TC ក្រាហ្វិក (រូបភាព ចុច សម្រាប់ប្រភព )

ក្រុមហ៊ុន Google Earth បាន ក្រាហ្វិក គ្របចាប់ពី

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
msgid / GENADMIN / រួម មានខ្យល់ព្យុះ WRNCEN កំពង់ផែ គុជខ្យង HI / /
ព្រមាន CYCLONE SUBJ / ត្រូពិច / /
RMKS /
1 ។ ខ្យល់ព្យុះ 24W ( ណារី ) ព្រមាន ផ្លូវជាតិលេខ 026 ( ព្រមាន ចុងក្រោយ )
02 CYCLONES ត្រូពិច សកម្មនៅក្នុង NORTHWESTPAC
MAX រន្ដន៍ភាព ខ្យល់ ដែលមានមូលដ្ឋាន ជាមធ្យម មួយ នាទី
RADII ខ្យល់ ធ្វើឱ្យមានសុពលភាព ទឹក ចំហរ តែ
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Positions ព្រមាន:
150000Z — ជិត 15.9N 108.2E
ចលនា បិទភ្ជាប់ ប្រាំមួយ ម៉ោងក្នុង – 260 ដឺក្រេ ក្រុមហ៊ុន AT 10 KTS
Positions ត្រឹមត្រូវ ក្នុង 040 Nm
វិជ្ជមាន ផ្អែក លើ មជ្ឈមណ្ឌល ដែលមានទីតាំងស្ថិតនៅ តាម ផ្កាយរណប
ការចែកចាយ ខ្យល់ បច្ចុប្បន្ន:
MAX រន្ដន៍ភាព ខ្យល់ – 070 KT , GUSTS 085 KT
RADII ខ្យល់ ធ្វើឱ្យមានសុពលភាព ទឹក ចំហរ តែ
កាំ នៃ 064 ខ្យល់ KT – 025 Nm ភាគឦសាន QUADRANT
QUADRANT 025 Nm អាគ្នេយ៍
QUADRANT 025 Nm និរតី
QUADRANT 025 Nm ពាយ័ព្យ
កាំ នៃ 050 ខ្យល់ KT – 045 Nm ភាគឦសាន QUADRANT
QUADRANT 045 Nm អាគ្នេយ៍
QUADRANT 045 Nm និរតី
QUADRANT 045 Nm ពាយ័ព្យ
កាំ នៃ 034 ខ្យល់ KT – 115 Nm ភាគឦសាន QUADRANT
QUADRANT 100 Nm អាគ្នេយ៍
QUADRANT 090 Nm និរតី
QUADRANT 100 Nm ពាយ័ព្យ
ធ្វើម្ដងទៀត ជាវិជ្ជមាន : 15.9N 108.2E
—
ការទស្សទាយ :
12 សិទ្ធិមនុស្ស , ដែលត្រឹមត្រូវនៅ :
151200Z — 15.6N 106.1E
MAX រន្ដន៍ភាព ខ្យល់ – 045 KT , GUSTS 055 KT
RADII ខ្យល់ ធ្វើឱ្យមានសុពលភាព ទឹក ចំហរ តែ
DISSIPATING ជា CYCLONE ត្រូពិច មួយ សសំខន់ ដី
វ៉ិចទ័រ ទៅទីតាំង ធនធានមនុស្ស 24 : 275 KTS DEG បាន / 10
—
24 សិទ្ធិមនុស្ស , ដែលត្រឹមត្រូវនៅ :
160000Z — 15.7N 104.0E
MAX ខ្យល់ ប្រកបដោយនិរន្តរភាព – 030 KT , GUSTS 040 KT
RADII ខ្យល់ ធ្វើឱ្យមានសុពលភាព ទឹក ចំហរ តែ
DISSIPATING ជា CYCLONE ត្រូពិច មួយ សសំខន់ ដី
វ៉ិចទ័រ ទៅទីតាំង ធនធានមនុស្ស 36 : 285 DEG បាន KTS / 09
—
36 សិទ្ធិមនុស្ស , ដែលត្រឹមត្រូវនៅ :
161200Z — 16.2N 102.3E
MAX រន្ដន៍ភាព ខ្យល់ – 020 KT , GUSTS 030 KT
RADII ខ្យល់ ធ្វើឱ្យមានសុពលភាព ទឹក ចំហរ តែ
DISSIPATED ជា CYCLONE ត្រូពិច មួយ សសំខន់ ដី
—
គួរឱ្យកត់សម្គាល់ :
Positions 150300Z នៅក្បែរ 107.7E 15.8N ។
ខ្យល់ព្យុះ 24W ( ណារី ) ដែលមានទីតាំង ប្រមាណជា 8 Nm នៅភាគខាងត្បូងនៃ Da Nang ,
ប្រទេសវៀតណាម បាន ចាត់ WESTWARD ក្រុមហ៊ុន AT 10 KNOTS ក្នុងរយៈពេល ប្រាំមួយ ម៉ោង។
ជួសជុល វិជ្ជមាន ថ្មី ពី PGTW និង RJTD និងរូបភាព TRMM មួយ 142326Z
ចង្អុលបង្ហាញថា កណ្តាលនៃ ទី 24W បាន ASHORE ចូលទៅក្នុង កណ្តាល
។ ប្រទេសវៀតណាម អាំងតង់ស៊ីតេ ចចុបបនន គឺមានមូលដ្ឋានលើ ប្រធានបទ ថ្មី DVORAK
្របពលភព និងការប៉ាន់ប្រមាណ ដោយស្វ័យប្រវត្តិ ។ ប្រព័ន្ធនឹងត្រូវបាន តាមដាន WESTWARD
PERIPHERY នៅតាមបណ្តោយ ភាគខាងត្បូង នៃ តំបន់ត្រូពិច មួយ Ridge ឈាន ទៅ
។ ភាគខាងជើង CYCLONE នឹង DISSIPATE ខាងក្រោម កម្រិត ព្រមាន
្របពលភព 25 KNOTS ដូចដែលវា TRACKS ទឹក ក្នុងរយៈពេល 36 ម៉ោង។
ដូច្នេះ នេះគឺជាការ ព្រមាន ចុងក្រោយ នៅលើប្រព័ន្ធ នេះដោយ រួម
ខ្យល់ព្យុះ WRNCEN HI កំពង់ផែ គុជខ្យង ។ ប្រព័ន្ធនឹង ត្រូវបានត្រួតពិនិត្យ យ៉ាងដិតដល់
គស្ញន ការបង្កើតឡើងវិញ ។ យោងទៅលើ ខ្យល់ព្យុះ 25W ព្រមាន ( WIPHA )
( WTPN31 PGTW ) សម្រាប់ការ ធ្វើឱ្យទាន់សម័យ ប្រាំមួយ – HOURLY ។ / /
NNNN
TSR logoNW តំបន់ប៉ាស៊ីហ្វិក : ព្រមាន ខ្យល់ព្យុះ បានចេញ នៅ តុលា 15 , 2013 0:00 GMT + ( ការព្រមាន ចុងក្រោយ )

ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ណារី ( 24W ) ដែលមានទីតាំងស្ថិត នៅជិត 15,9 បច្ចុប្បន្ន N, 108,2 អ៊ី ត្រូវបានគេ ព្យាករថា ធ្វើកូដកម្ម ដី ទៅ ហាក់ដូចជា ដូចខាងក្រោម ( s) បាន នាំមុខ នៅពេល ដែលបានផ្ដល់ឱ្យ ( s) បាន :

ប្រទេស ក្រហម ព្រមាន ( s) បាន ឬខេត្ត ( s) បាន
ប្រទេសវៀតណាម
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ CAT 1 ឬ ខាងលើ គឺ 100% បច្ចុប្បន្ន
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ TS គឺ 100% បច្ចុប្បន្ន
ប្រទេសឡាវ
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ CAT 1 ឬ ខាងលើ គឺ 60 % បច្ចុប្បន្ន
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ TS គឺ 100% បច្ចុប្បន្ន
ក្រហម ព្រមាន ទីក្រុង ( s) បាន និង ក្រុង ( s) បាន
da ណាង ( 16.1 N, , 108,2 អ៊ី )
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ CAT 1 ឬ ខាងលើ គឺ 100% បច្ចុប្បន្ន
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ TS គឺ 100% បច្ចុប្បន្ន

ប្រទេស ព្រមាន លឿង ( s) បាន ឬខេត្ត ( s) បាន
ប្រទេសកម្ពុជា
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ TS គឺ 85% ក្នុងរយៈពេល 12 ម៉ោង
ប្រទេសថៃ
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ TS គឺ 80% ក្នុងរយៈពេល 12 ម៉ោង
លឿង ព្រមាន ទីក្រុង ( s) បាន និង ក្រុង ( s) បាន
Quang Ngai ( N, 15.1 , 108,8 អ៊ី )
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ TS គឺ 100% បច្ចុប្បន្ន
dong Ha បាន ( 16.8 N, , 107,1 អ៊ី )
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ TS គឺ 90% បច្ចុប្បន្ន
Kon Tum ( N, 14.4 , 108,0 អ៊ី )
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ TS គឺ 80% បច្ចុប្បន្ន
dong Hoi ( 17.5 N, , 106,6 អ៊ី )
ប្រហែល សម្រាប់ TS គឺ 60 % ក្នុងរយៈពេល 12 ម៉ោង

ចំណាំថា
ក្រហម ព្រមាន ( ធ្ងន់ធ្ងរ ) គឺជា CAT 1 ឬ ខាងលើដើម្បី រវាង 31% និងប្រហែលនិង 100% ។
លឿង ព្រមាន ( ការកាត់បន្ថយ ) គឺ 1 CAT ឬ ខាងលើដើម្បី រវាងពី 10 % និងប្រហែល 30% ឬ TS ទៅ ខាងលើ ប្រហែល 50% ។
1 CAT មានន័យថា កម្លាំង ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ខ្យល់បក់ យ៉ាងហោចណាស់ 74 mph , 119 គីឡូម៉ែត្រ / ម៉ោង ឬ 64 knots – 1 នាទី រន្ដន៍ភាព ។
TS ខ្យល់បក់ មានន័យថា កម្លាំង ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ត្រូពិក នៃការ យ៉ាងហោចណាស់ 39 mph 63 គីឡូម៉ែត្រ / ម៉ោង ឬ 34 knots – 1 នាទី រន្ដន៍ភាព ។

សំរាប់ពត៌មាន ការទស្សទាយ ក្រាហ្វិក និង ព័ត៌មានលម្អិតបន្ថែម សូម ទស្សនា http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
របាយការណ៍ ផ្សេងទៀត

ខ្យល់ព្យុះ នៅប្រទេសវៀតណាម ណារី ទស្សនា

” ភ្លៀង Torrential ត្រូវបាន ធ្លាក់ នៅក្នុង តំបន់អាស៊ីអាគ្នេយ៍ ដោយសារតែមាន ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ណារី ដែល បានធ្វើឡើង នៅជិត landfall Da Nang នៅជុំវិញ 03 UTC នៅថ្ងៃពុធ ជា ប្រភេទ ទី 1 ជាមួយនឹង ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ខ្យល់បក់ 80 mph ។ ភ្នែក បានអនុម័ត 10 ម៉ាយ ភាគខាងត្បូង នៃ Da Nang , ដាក់ នៅក្នុង ទីក្រុង ដ៏ខ្លាំងក្លា នៅភាគខាងជើង semicircle នៃខ្យល់ព្យុះ នេះ។ da ណាង បានកត់ត្រា ខ្យល់បក់ ប្រកបដោយចីរភាព ផ្នែកខាងលើនៃ 55 mph , gusting ទៅ 81 mph និង បានកើនឡើង 4,06 “នៃ ទឹកភ្លៀង ។ ការបំផ្លាញ គឺ ធុនធ្ងន់នៅ Da Nang , ហើយយ៉ាងហោចណាស់ ចំនួនប្រាំ នាក់បានស្លាប់ ត្រូវបានគេ ស្តីបន្ទោស លើ ព្យុះ នេះ។ ណារី battered ប្រទេសហ្វីលីពីន កាលពីថ្ងៃសុក្រ បានសំលាប់មនុស្ស មនុស្សដែល thirteen និងការ ចាកចេញពី 2,1 លាននាក់ ដោយមិនចាំបាច់មាន អំណាច នៅលើកោះ ហ្វីលីពីន សំខាន់នៃ តំបន់ Luzon “- ។ ថ្នាក់អនុបណ្ឌិត បណ្ឌិត លោក Jeff / អាកាសធាតុ / នៅក្រោមដី 2:49 ល្ងាច GMT + នៅថ្ងៃទី 14 ខែតុលាឆ្នាំ 2013
Huffs ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ណារី , Puffs និងការ នាំ ទឹកជំនន់ ទៅប្រទេសវៀតណាម

ដោយ Vu Trong ខាញ់ | Wall Street ដែល ទិនានុប្បវត្តិ

” ហាណូយ , ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ណារី បុក ទីក្រុង តំបន់ឆ្នេរ នៃ Danang នៅព្រឹក ថ្ងៃអង្គារ៍ បានសំលាប់មនុស្ស យ៉ាងហោចណាស់ ចំនួនប្រាំ នាក់ knocking ចុះ ដើមឈើ ខូចខាត់ រាប់រយនាក់បាន លំនៅដ្ឋាននិង រាប់សិបនាក់ លិច ទូក នេសាទ។

ព្យុះ បាន ចុះខ្សោយ ចាប់តាំងពីឆ្នាំ ហើយត្រូវបាន ព្យាករថា នឹងត្រូវបាន បន្ទាប ទៅជា ព្យុះ ត្រូពិច នៅថ្ងៃនេះ នៅពេលក្រោយ នោះទេប៉ុន្តែ មន្ត្រីរដ្ឋាភិបាល បាននិយាយថា វាត្រូវបានកេះ មានភ្លៀងធ្លាក់ច្រើន ដែលអាច បណ្តាលឱ្យ មានះថាក់ ទឹកជំនន់ – នេះមានន័យ កាន់តែអាក្រក់ អាចនឹងត្រូវបាន នៅឡើយទេ មក។

កម្រិត ទឹក នៅក្នុង ទន្លេ មូលដ្ឋាន នៅកណ្តាល ប្រទេសវៀតណាម ត្រូវបាន កើនឡើង យ៉ាងឆាប់រហ័ស និងប្រជាជន នៅក្នុងខេត្ត កណ្តាល ក៏ដូចជា នៅ តំបន់ខ្ពង់រាប កណ្តាល គួរតែ ប្រុងប្រយ័ត្ន នៃ ការបាក់ដី និងទឹកជំនន់ Flash មន្ត្រី នៅមជ្ឈមណ្ឌល ជាតិ សម្រាប់ ការទស្សទាយ hydro – Meteorological ដែលបាន ពិនិតតាមដាន ព្រឹត្តិការណ៍ អាកាសធាតុ បាននិយាយថា ធ្ងន់ធ្ងរ ។

វាត្រូវ បានឱ្យដឹងថា ភ្លៀង នៅក្នុង តំបន់នេះ ចន្លោះពី 112 ទៅ 396 millimeters millimeters ក្នុងរយៈពេល 24 ម៉ោង។

” ដើមឈើ ធ្លាក់ចុះ ហើយ [ បំបែក ] ដំបូល ត្រូវបានគេឃើញ នៅគ្រប់ទីកន្លែង ” Le Tien វ៉ាន់ , ជាផ្លូវការ នៅ Danang ប្រឆាំងនឹង គ្រោះទឹកជំនន់ របស់ នាយកដ្ឋាន និង ព្យុះ មួយ បានប្រាប់ Wall Street ដែល ទិនានុប្បវត្តិ ។ ” ខ្យល់ បាន subsided ឥឡូវនេះ ទេប៉ុន្តែ វាត្រូវបាន ភ្លៀង នៅតែ ខ្លាំង។ ”

របាយការណ៍ ដំបូងពី ខេត្ត ប្រឆាំងនឹង គ្រោះទឹកជំនន់ និងមន្ទីរ ព្យុះ បានបង្ហាញថា ខ្យល់ព្យុះ នេះបាន សំលាប់មនុស្ស យ៉ាងហោចណាស់មាន មនុស្សបីនាក់ និង បានចាកចេញពី បាត់ មួយ នៅក្នុង លោក Nam Quang និងរបួស មនុស្ស 11 នាក់ នៅក្នុង Danang ។ មុនពេល ធ្វើឱ្យ landfall នៅក្នុង ប្រទេសវៀតណាម ណារី បានសំលាប់មនុស្ស យ៉ាងហោចណាស់ 15 នាក់ នៅក្នុង ប្រទេសហ្វីលីពីន។

ក្រុមហ៊ុនអាកាសចរណ៍ វៀតណាម , flagship នាវា របស់ប្រទេសនេះ បាន បានលុបចោល ឬ ពន្យារពេល ការហោះហើរ ទៅកាន់ និងមកពី ពណ៌លាំ Danang និង ជិត City. រដ្ឋ – ការរត់ ក្រុម អគ្គីសនី វៀតណាម បានឱ្យដឹងថា ខ្យល់ព្យុះ នេះបានបង្ក blackouts ក្នុងខេត្តដទៃទៀត និង Danang ជាច្រើន នៅក្នុងតំបន់ កណ្តាល របស់ប្រទេសនេះ ធ្វើឱ្យវា មានការលំបាក ដើម្បីកំណត់ពី វិសាលភាពនៃ ការខូចខាត នេះ។

“យើង កំពុងមាន បញ្ហាក្នុងការ ធ្វើឱ្យទាន់សម័យ ពី ស្ថានភាព ស្រុក ជាច្រើន ដោយសារតែការ កាត់បន្ថយ អំណាច ” ជាផ្លូវការ ជាមួយ Quang របស់ លោក Nam ប្រឆាំងនឹង គ្រោះទឹកជំនន់ និង ខ្យល់ព្យុះ មួយ បានឱ្យដឹងថា មន្ទីរ ។ លោកបាននិយាយថា ចំនួនមនុស្សស្លាប់ អាច កើនឡើង បន្ថែមទៀត ថាជា ព័ត៌មាន កាន់តែច្រើន បានមក ចូល

ណារី គឺជា ព្យុះ ទី 11 ឬ ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ដ៏ធំមួយ ទៅ បុក ប្រទេសវៀតណាម នៅឆ្នាំនេះ។ មុននឹងមានការ landfall របស់ខ្លួន អាជ្ញាធរ នៅក្នុងខេត្ត កណ្តាល ដែលបាន ជម្លៀសចេញ ជាង 123.000 នាក់និង បានបញ្ជា ទូក 68.000 ashore នេះបើយោងតាម ​​គណៈកម្មាការ កណ្តាល សម្រាប់ការ ត្រួតពិនិត្យ ទឹកជំនន់និង ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ។

មានមនុស្សជាង 190 នាក់ត្រូវបានសម្លាប់ ដោយ ខ្យល់ព្យុះទឹកជំនន់ និង calamities ធម្មជាតិ ផ្សេងទៀត ចាប់តាំងពី ខែមករា។ ”
ដែនសមុទ្រ
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 141200
141200 ព្រមាន ។
ព្រមាន ធ្វើឱ្យមានសុពលភាព 151200 ។
ព្រមាន បានធ្វើឱ្យទាន់សម័យ រៀងរាល់ 6 ម៉ោង។
ព្រមាន ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ។
ខ្យល់ព្យុះ ណារី 1325 ( 1325 ) 965 HPA
ក្រុមហ៊ុន AT 16.3N 110.0E សមុទ្រចិនខាងត្បូង ការផ្លាស់ប្តូរ WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS ។
ទីតាំង ដ៏ល្អមួយ។
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS នៅជិត Center ។
កាំ ជាង 50 ខ្យល់ KNOT 60 ម៉ាយល៍ ។
កាំ ជាង 30 ខ្យល់ KNOT 180 ម៉ាយ ភាគខាងជើង SEMICIRCLE និង 150 ម៉ាយល៍
នៅកន្លែងផ្សេង ។
ការទស្សទាយ ជាវិជ្ជមាន សំរាប់ការ 150000UTC ក្រុមហ៊ុន AT 16.4N 108.3E ជាមួយ 50 កាំ ម៉ា
រង្វង់ ប្រហែលជា 70 ភាគរយ។
975 HPA , MAX ខ្យល់ 60 KNOTS នៅជិត Center ។
ការទស្សទាយ ជាវិជ្ជមាន សំរាប់ការ 151200UTC ក្រុមហ៊ុន AT 16.1N 106.1E ជាមួយ 75 កាំ ម៉ា
រង្វង់ ប្រហែលជា 70 ភាគរយ។
1002 HPA ។
ក្លាយ depression ក្នុងតំបន់ត្រូពិក។

ភ្នាក់ងារ ប្រទេសជប៉ុន METEOROLOGICAL ។ =
METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 151200

2:31:11:11:00

BT

= Pan Pan

សារសម្រាប់ NAVAREA ព្រឹទ្ធសភា ( IOR ) ដែលចេញដោយ NMC ក្រុងប៉េកាំង

ក្រុមហ៊ុន AT 1530UTC OCT.15 2013 =

សារគឺ បានធ្វើឱ្យទាន់សម័យ រៀងរាល់ 06 ម៉ោងក្នុង =

SYNOPSIS ធ្វើឱ្យមានសុពលភាព Oct 1200UTC ។ 15 =

FORECAST ធ្វើឱ្យមានសុពលភាព 1200UTC Oct ។ 16 =

WARNNING =

ទី WIPHA 1326 (1326) 960HPA ក្រុមហ៊ុន AT 30.5N 136.3E ការផ្លាស់ប្តូរ

NE 65KM / ម៉ោងនិង MAX ខ្យល់ 38M ​​/ S ដែល នៅក្បែរ Center ( សមុទ្រ ឡើង

ដើម្បី 9.0M ) និង កាំ នៃ 30KTS ខ្យល់ និង 380KM

កាំ នៃ 50KTS ខ្យល់ 100KM ហើយទស្សទាយ ប់

161200UTC ក្រុមហ៊ុន AT 43.6N 147.9E 985HPA MAX ខ្យល់ 23m / S ជា

នៅជិត មជ្ឈមណ្ឌល =

= សង្ខេប

ខ្យល់ N / A សរសេរ ពី 08 ទៅ 16m / សមុទ្រ របស់ S បានរហូតដល់ ជាង 2.5m

BOHAI Strait ហើយជាផ្នែកមួយ នៅភាគខាងជើង នៃសមុទ្រ លឿង =

N / A NE ខ្យល់ ពី 11 ទៅ សមុទ្រ 20m / S ដែល រហូតដល់ទៅ ជាង 3.5M

ភាគ កណ្តាល និងខាងត្បូង នៃសមុទ្រ លឿង និងផ្នែក ខាងត្បូង

ភាគខាងកើត សមុទ្រចិន និងតៃវ៉ាន់ Strait =

ខ្យល់ N / A NE ពី 13 ទៅ 24m / S ជា សមុទ្រ 28m / S ជា GUST ឡើងទៅ

4.0M ជាង ភាគ ខាងជើង ភាគខាងកើត សមុទ្រចិន =

ខ្យល់ អ៊ី / NE ពី 08 ទៅ 16m / S ជា សមុទ្រ 20m / S ជា GUST ឡើងទៅ

2.5m ជាង ភាគទី ភាគខាងជើងនៃ សមុទ្រចិនខាងត្បូង =

ខ្យល់ NE ពី 11 ទៅ 20m / សមុទ្រ រហូតដល់ទៅ ជាង 3.0M

គំេង SEA ប្រទេសជប៉ុន និងកូរ៉េ Strait =

ខ្យល់ ពី 17 ដល់ សមុទ្រ 28m / S ជា រហូតដល់ 6.0M សមុទ្រ

នៅភាគខាងត្បូងនៃ ប្រទេសជប៉ុន =

ខ្យល់ ពី 29 ទៅ 38M សមុទ្រ / S ដែល ឡើងដល់ 9.0M សមុទ្រ

នៅជិត កណ្តាលនៃ WIPHA =

ខ្យល់ ពី 13 ទៅ 24m សមុទ្រ / S ដែល ឡើងដល់ 4.5M សមុទ្រ

ខាងកើតនៃ RYUKYU កោះ និងសមុទ្រ ខាងលិចនៃ BONIN

= កោះ

ដែលអាចមើលឃើញ ដោយផ្ដេក តិចជាង 10KM ជាង ANDAMAN

ភាគទី គំរោង SEA និង ភាគខាងជើងនៃ ប្រទេសថៃ និងសមុទ្រ ភាគខាងលិច ឈូងសមុទ្រ

នៃ SUMATERA និង SUNDA Strait និងសមុទ្រ ខាងកើត

សិង្ហបុរីនិង LAUT JAWA និង MAKASSAR Strait និង

= LAUT MALUKU

ការទស្សទាយ =

ខ្យល់ NLY ពី 08 ទៅ 16m / S ជា សមុទ្រ 20m / S ជា GUST ឡើងទៅ

2.5m ជាង BOHAI Strait =

ខ្យល់ ពី 11 ទៅ 20m / S ជា GUST 24m / សមុទ្រ របស់ S បានរហូតដល់ 3.0M

លើសពី គំេង SEA លឿង និងសមុទ្រ ខាងកើតនៃ កោះតៃវ៉ាន់និង ខាងជើង

និងផ្នែក ពាក់កណ្តាល ខាងលិចនៃ សមុទ្រចិនខាងត្បូង និង BASHI

ឆានែល និង BEIBU ឈូងសមុទ្រ និង QIONGZHOU Strait =

ខ្យល់ ពី 13 ទៅ 24m / S ជា សមុទ្រ 28m / S ជា GUST រហូតដល់ 4.5M

ជាង ភាគខាងកើត សមុទ្រចិន និងតៃវ៉ាន់ Strait និងកូរ៉េ

Strait និងជប៉ុន គំេង SEA =

ខ្យល់ ពី 17 ដល់ សមុទ្រ 28m / S ជា រហូតដល់ 5.5M សមុទ្រ

នៅភាគខាងត្បូងនៃ ប្រទេសជប៉ុន =

ខ្យល់ ពី 29 ទៅ 38M សមុទ្រ / S ដែល ឡើងដល់ 8.5M សមុទ្រ

នៅជិត កណ្តាលនៃ WIPHA =

ខ្យល់ ពី 11 ទៅ GUST 20m / S ជា 21 ទៅ សមុទ្រ 28m / S ដែល ឡើងទៅ

4.0M សមុទ្រ ខាងកើតនៃ RYUKYU កោះ និងសមុទ្រ ភាគខាងលិច

BONIN នៃ កោះ =

Thai (Translated by Google)

���´���: ���� 24W Nari 151200Z ��� 16.0N 106.0E ���� W ��� 15 �͵ ( JMA ) Ŵŧ�� ���ش���ʪѹࢵ��͹ – 151,013 1905z

��͹���� ( 24W ) Nari / �ѹ��

” ���� Nari �Ե ���´��� ” – ��. ਿ�� � / �ҡ�� / ��Թ

���� 24W ( Nari ) Ŵŧ�� ���ش���ʪѹࢵ��͹ ( JMA )

Nari �Ե ���´��� �� ��� ����٪��� ��ͧ���ѧ !

( ����͹ŧ ����Ѻ ����� ��Ф���͹ ����Թ���� )

( Mag ����͹ pababa �Էѡ�� SA MGA pagsasalin ��� ���� Babala )

( Di chuyển Xuong cho � � � Bản dich �� � Canh � � o H � ng Hai )

˹��§ҹ �صع����Է�ҭ����
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TD
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<Analyses ��� 15/12 UTC>
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TD
���˹� �ٹ�� N16 ° 00 ‘ ( 16.0 °)
E106 ° 00 ‘ ( 106.0 °)
��ȷҧ ��Ф������Ǣͧ �������͹��� ���ҧ 30 ��. / �ͪ ( 15kt )
1000hPa �����ѹ ��ҧ

PAGASA – ���˹��
PAGASA – ���˹��
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� �ѹ��� ����� ������عࢵ��͹ ��������� ���� ��鹷�� �Ѻ�Դ�ͺ�ͧ���Ի�Թ�� ( PAR ) ���
��觪ҵ��ٹ�� Hydro – �صع����Է�� ��ҡó� ( NCHMF ) ���´���

�ѧ����բ�����
��͹������� ���� �ٹ�� ( JTWC )

( �Ҿ: ਷� ) ����͹ TC Graphic ( ��ԡ���ʹ��Ҿ ���觷���� )

Google Overlay �š ��ҿԡ

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
msgid / GENADMIN / �������� WRNCEN Pearl Harbor ����� / /
��͹��¾�����ع SUBJ / TROPICAL / /
RMKS /
1 TYPHOON 24W ( NARI ) ����͹ NR 026 ( ����͹ �ش����)
02 ��͹ cyclones ��ҹ� NORTHWESTPAC
MAX ����� �ҡ�ѵ������� ONE �ҷ�
����բͧ �� ���١��ͧ �����˹�͹�� �Դ੾��
—
���˹� ����͹:
150000Z — �����§ 15.9N 108.2E
�������͹��� ����ҹ�� ˡ������� – 260 ͧ�� 10 KTS
���˹� ���١��ͧ ���� 040 �����硫��
���˹� BASED ON CENTER ��� �������
��Ш�� �� �������Ѩ�غѹ :
MAX ����� – 070 KT ���⪡ 085 KT
����բͧ �� ���١��ͧ �����˹�͹�� �Դ੾��
����բͧ �� KT 064 – 025 �����硫�� �Ҥ���ѹ�͡��§�˹�� QUADRANT
025 QUADRANT �����硫�� SOUTHEAST
025 QUADRANT �����硫�� SOUTHWEST
025 QUADRANT �����硫�� NORTHWEST
����բͧ �� KT 050 – 045 �����硫�� �Ҥ���ѹ�͡��§�˹�� QUADRANT
045 QUADRANT �����硫�� SOUTHEAST
045 QUADRANT �����硫�� SOUTHWEST
045 QUADRANT �����硫�� NORTHWEST
����բͧ �� KT 034 – 115 �����硫�� �Ҥ���ѹ�͡��§�˹�� QUADRANT
100 QUADRANT �����硫�� SOUTHEAST
090 QUADRANT �����硫�� SOUTHWEST
100 QUADRANT �����硫�� NORTHWEST
REPEAT Posit : 15.9N 108.2E
—
�Ҵ��ó� :
12 ������� , ���١��ͧ ����:
151200Z — 15.6N 106.1E
MAX ����� – 045 KT ���⪡ 055 KT
����բͧ �� ���١��ͧ �����˹�͹�� �Դ੾��
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�ǡ���� �ҧ��� ��Ѿ�ҡúؤ�� 24 : KTS 275 DEG / 10
—
24 ������� , ���١��ͧ ����:
160000Z — 15.7N 104.0E
MAX ����� – 030 KT ���⪡ 040 KT
����բͧ �� ���١��ͧ �����˹�͹�� �Դ੾��
����� �� ������عࢵ��͹����Ӥѭ���� ���Թ
�ǡ���� �ҧ��� ��Ѿ�ҡúؤ�� 36 : KTS 285 DEG / 09
—
36 ��. , ���١��ͧ ����:
161200Z — 16.2N 102.3E
MAX ����� – 020 KT ���⪡ 030 KT
����բͧ �� ���١��ͧ �����˹�͹�� �Դ੾��
���������� AS ������عࢵ��͹����Ӥѭ���� ���Թ
—
�����˵� :
���˹� 150300Z �����§ 15.8N 107.7E
TYPHOON 24W ( NARI ) �������ҳ 8 �����硫�� ��ͧ �ҹѧ ,
���´��� �� ���ҧ ��� 10 �͵ ����ҹ��ˡ �������
��� ���˹� ����ش�ҡ PGTW ��� RJTD ����Ҿ TRMM142326Z
�к���� �ٹ���ҧ�ͧ TY 24W�� ����͹��Ǣ�鹽�� ��ҧ�����
���´��� ������� 㹻Ѩ�غѹ �Т������Ѻ ����� ����ش DVORAK
��Ф����ع�ç �ѵ��ѵ� ����ҳ��� �к���͡�õԴ��� WESTWARD
��� �ͺ ��ҹ��ͧ RIDGE �ǧ����¤�͹��ҧ��͹ �֧
NORTH ������Ź �� ��Ш�� ��ӡ���ࡳ�� ����͹
��������ͧ 25 �͵ AS �еԴ��� ��Ө״ ��ա 36 �������
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TYPHOON WRNCEN ����� Pearl Harbor �к��ж١ �Դ������ҧ���Դ
���ѭ�ҳ�ͧ ��ÿ����Ҿ ��ҧ�֧ ���� 25W ����͹ ( WIPHA )
( WTPN31 PGTW ) ����Ѻ��û�Ѻ��ا ˡ ������� / /.
NNNN
TSR logoNW Pacific: ����͹ ���� �͡ ��� 15 ���Ҥ� 2013 00:00 GMT ( ����͹ �����ش����)

���� NARI ( 24W ) �Ѩ�غѹ������� ��� �ѧ����բ�ͤ������ 15.9 108.2 E �Ҵ��Ҩ� �� ���Թ����͡�� ���仹�� (s) ��� ��������㹡�����Ѻ (s):

����� Red Alert (s) ���� �ѧ��Ѵ (s)
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������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ CAT 1 �����٧���� 100% ��й��
������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ TS �� 100% ��й��
�Ҹ�ó�Ѱ��ЪҸԻ�»�ЪҪ����
������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ CAT 1 �����٧���� ��� 60 % 㹢�й��
������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ TS �� 100% ��й��
Red Alert ���ͧ (s) ��� ���ͧ (s)
�ҹѧ ( 16.1 N, 108.2 E)
������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ CAT 1 �����٧���� 100% ��й��
������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ TS �� 100% ��й��

����� ����͹ ������ͧ (s) ���� �ѧ��Ѵ (s)
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������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ TS �� 85% ���� 12 �������
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������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ TS �� 80% ���� 12 �������
�������͹ ������ͧ �Ե�� ( s) ������ͧ (s)
Quang Ngai ( 15.1 N, 108.8 E)
������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ TS �� 100% ��й��
Dong Ha ( 16.8 N, 107.1 E)
������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ TS �� 90% ��й��
Kon Tum ( 14.4 N, 108.0 E)
������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ TS �� 80% ��й��
Dong Hoi ( 17.5 N, 106.6 E)
������Ҩ��� ����Ѻ TS �� 60% ���� 12 �������

�ô��Һ���
Red Alert ( �ع�ç ) ��� CAT 1 �����٧���� �����ҧ 31% ��� 100% ��Ҩ���
�������͹ ������ͧ ( ¡�дѺ ) ��� 1 CAT �����٧���� �����ҧ 10% ��� ������Ҩ��� 30% ���� TS � ��ҧ�� ��Ҩ��� 50%
1 CAT ���¶֧ �����ç�ͧ �� �������� ���ҧ���� 74 �����ͪ������ 119 �������� / ������� ���� 64 �͵ 1 �ҷ� ����׹
TS ���¶֧ �� �ç ����⫹��͹ ���ҧ���� 39 ���� 63 �������� / ������� ���� 34 �͵ 1 �ҷ� ����׹

����Ѻ �����š�þ�ҡó� ��ҿԡ��� ��������´������� ��س��������� http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
��§ҹ��� �

���� ���´��� Nari �Ե

” �� ���ѧ ������� ����µ��ѹ�͡��§�� ���ͧ�ҡ �������� Nari ��� ������蹴Թ��� �ҹѧ ����ҳ 03 UTC ��ѹ�ظ��� ��������Ǵ 1 ����� 80 �����ͪ�������� �Ҽ�ҹ� 10 ����ҧ��ͧ �ҹѧ �ҧ ���ͧ��Ҥ�˹�ͧ͢ ����ǧ��� �������� �ͧ���� �� �ѧ ���ѹ�֡ ����� ��ҹ���ͧ 55 �����ͪ������ , ���⪡ �֧ 81 �����ͪ������ ��� ��Ժ����� 4.06 ” �� . ����������� ˹ѡ 㹴ҹѧ ������ҧ���� ��� ����� ���١ ���������� ����. Nari ���س ���Ի�Թ��������ѹ�ء���� ��� �Ժ ����� ����͡ 2.1 ��ҹ �� ������ӹҨ ����� ���Ի�Թ����ѡ �ͧ����٫͹ ” – . � ��. ਿ�� / �ҡ�� / ��Թ 14:49 GMT ����� 14 ���Ҥ� 2013
Huffs ���� Nari , Puffs ��� �� ��ӷ��� ��ѧ��������´���

�� Vu Trong Khanh |Wall Street Journal

” �ҹ�� _ ���� Nari �����ͧ��½�觷��� �ͧ ���ͧ�ҹѧ ����� ����ѹ�ѧ��� ������ҧ���� ��Ҥ� ��� ����� ������� �������� �ͧ��ҹ ��йѺ�Ժ ��è��ͧ ���ͻ����

���� �� ��͹���ŧ ����� ��� �Ҵ��Ҩ� �١Ŵ�дѺ �繾���⫹��͹ ��ѹ��� �����ѧ �� ���˹�ҷ�� �͡����ѹ �� �������Դ ����˹ѡ ����Ҩ������Դ ��ӷ��� ���ѹ���� – �������� ���������� �Ҩ�� �ѧ�����֧

�дѺ ��� � ����� ��ͧ��� ��Ҥ��ҧ�ͧ ���´��� �� ����������ҧ�Ǵ���� ��� ���������� �ѧ��Ѵ �Ҥ��ҧ �����ǡѺ��ҧ ���Ź�� ��� ���ѧ �Թ���� ��� ��ӷ����Ѻ��ѹ ���˹�ҷ�� ��� �ٹ�� ��觪ҵ����� ��þ�ҡó� Hydro – �صع����Է�� ��觵�Ǩ�ͺ �˵ء�ó����Դ��� �������� ��Ҿ�ҡ�ȷ���ع�ç

��������� �ս��� 㹾�鹷����ᵡ��ҧ�ѹ����� 112 ��������� 396 ��������� ����ҹ�� 24 �������

” �������� ��� [ ����� ] ��ѧ�� ����� �ء��� ” Le Van ��¹ ���ҧ�繷ҧ��� ��� ���ͧ�ҹѧ �ͧ ��û�ͧ�ѹ ��ӷ��� ��� ���� Ἱ��͡Wall Street Journal “�� �� Ŵŧ 㹢�й�� ���ѹ�� �ѧ�� �ս��� ˹ѡ�ҡ . ”

��͹ ��§ҹ �ҡ�ѧ��Ѵ ��ͧ�ѹ ��ӷ��� ��� ˹��§ҹ��� �ʴ���������� ���� ���蹶١��ҵ�� ���ҧ������� �� ��Ы��� ˹�� ����� Quang Nam ��� ���Ѻ�Ҵ�� 11 �� � �ҹѧ ��͹���� ������蹴Թ ����´��� Nari ���ª��Ե���ҧ���� 15 �� 㹻���ȿ��Ի�Թ��

���´��� �����Ź� ����ԡ�� ���͸� �ͧ����� ����� �ա��¡��ԡ���� ����͹ ����ǺԹ ���С�Ѻ�ҡ ��� �ҹѧ ��� ʶҹ��������§ City. �Ѱ �ӧҹ ����� ���俿�� ���´��� �������� ����������������Դ ʵ� � �ѧ��Ѵ��� � �ҹѧ ����ա���¤� ��Ҥ��ҧ �ͧ����ȷ����������ͧ�ҡ ���͡�˹��ͺࢵ �ͧ�����������

“��� �ջѭ��� ��û�Ѻ��ا ʶҹ��ó�ҡ ����������ͧ ���ͧ�ҡ��õѴ� ” ���ҧ�繷ҧ��áѺ Quang Nam ��͵�ҹ ��ӷ��� ��� ���� Ἱ��������� �ҡ������� �ʹ������ª��Ե�Ҩ ������� �ա �� ������������� �����

Nari �繾��� ���� ��� 11 ���� �е� ���´��� 㹻չ�� � ��ҧ˹�Ңͧ �蹴Թ �ͧ ���˹�ҷ�� � �ѧ��Ѵ���ᴹ�Ҥ ��ҧ;¾ ���� 123,000 �� ��������� ���� ��鹽�� 68,000 ������ ��С�����á�ҧ ����Ѻ ��ӷ��� ��С�äǺ��� ����

�ҡ���� 190 ���١ ��ҵ���� ���� ��ӷ������ ��¾Ժѵ� �����ҵ���� � �������͹���Ҥ� . ”
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METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 141,200
141200 ����͹
����͹ ���١��ͧ 151200
����͹ ����ա�û�Ѻ��ا �ء 6 �������
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TYPHOON NARI 1325 ( 1325 ) 965 HPA
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975 HPA , MAX WINDS 60 �͵ �������Ѻ�ٹ��
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METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200

WWCI50 BABJ 151,200

2:31:11:11:00

BT

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Albania/Algeria/Tunisia/Mediterranean/Italy/Greece: Severe Weather including Tornado risk.ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: Levels 1 & 2 issued. Valid 101013 0600Z -111013 0600Z – Published 091013 2310z

Storm Forecast

European forecaster, ESTOFEX has issued the following forecast for severe weather:

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 10 Oct 2013 06:00 to Fri 11 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 09 Oct 2013 22:39
Forecaster: GATZEN

 

A level 2 was issued for western Albania and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for northern Algeria and Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the central Mediterranean from Tunisia across southern Italy to the southern Adriatic and Greece mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes and to a lower extend large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the northern Adriatic and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

An intense cut-off process is underway at the eastern flank of an Atlantic ridge. At the end of the forecast period, a closed low will be centred across France. This will be associated with a westerly to south-westerly flow across the Mediterranean and warm air advection especially in the eastern portions. Across eastern Europe, a weak trough will move north-eastward.

DISCUSSION

Algeria to Sicily and Greece

Increasing warm air advection is expected across the area due to south-westerly flow in the wake of a lifting trough moving north-east into eastern Europe. An elevated mixed layer will spread north-east across the south Mediterranean Sea. The low-level mixing ratio will increase in the capped maritime boundary-layer due to the warm sea surface temperature. The plume of rich boundary-layer moisture will advect northward with the low-level flow, leaving the area of the strong inversion.

Additionally, several jet streaks will travel east along the 20 m/s jet stream that will provide QG lift from Algeria towards Greece.

Current thinking is that another round of frequent convective activity will affect the area until Friday morning. Storms will likely organize given the strong deep layer vertical wind shear, and mesoscale convective systems may move east or northeast.

The main threat will be excessive rain through-out the period as the storms will affect the same area along the warm air advection regime from Sicily to Greece for a longer time. Additionally, the high moisture will increase the chance of intense downdrafts. The western coasts and mountain areas are most at risk due to upslope flow where a level 2 was issued.

An additional risk are tornadoes due to locally large low-level hodographs together with strong low-level buoyancy near the coasts. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail are mostly expected across Algeria and Tunisia during the afternoon and evening hours.

Northern Adriatic and surroundings

Strong QG lift is expected ahead of the European cut-off low that will spread into the northern Adriatic late in the period. Given the rather most and warm boundary-layer ahead of the cold front, CAPE is forecast and thunderstorms will likely form especially in the evening and night hours. As vertical wind shear will be strong, storm will quickly organize and supercells and multicells capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast. Additionally, excessive precipitation is expected especially in the eastern portions of the area. Near the Adriatic Sea, tornadoes may also occur given the strong low-level vertical wind shear.”

Related:

Meteoalarm – severe weather warnings for Europe

India/Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone (VSCS/CAT3-SS) 02B / Phailin 122100Z nr 20.0N 84.7E, moving NNW at 10 knots (JTWC) Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast (IMD) – 121013 2100z

Tropical Cyclone (VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ) 02B (Two) /Phailin � Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh
and Odisha Coast. (IMD)

Cyclone Phailin hit the coast near Gopalpur, Orissa state, at about 21:15 (15:45 GMT)

Predicted storm surge of at least 3m (10ft) expected to cause extensive damage – BBC News

Tropical Cyclone Phailin Could Be Packing 10-Foot Surge � Dr. Jeff Masters,� Weather Underground��

(Scroll down for Hindi and Gujarati translations) (हिंदी और गुजराती अनुवाद के लिए नीचे स्क्रॉल)
(હિન્દી અને ગુજરાતી અનુવાદ માટે નીચે સ્ક્રોલ કરો)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: IMD) Visakhapatnam Doppler Radar (Click image for source)

RSMC-Tropical Cyclones New Delhi � India

(Image: IMD)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC � TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM
�PHAILIN�
ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SIX ISSUED AT 1700 UTC OF 12
TH
OCTOBER 2013 BASED ON 1500 UTC CHARTS of 12
TH
OCTOBER 2013.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM,
PHAILIN
OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 3 HOURS
WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH OCTOBER
2013 OVER NORTHWEST ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 19.1
0
N
AND LONGITUDE 85.0
0
E, CLOSE TO GOPALPUR. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
LANDFALL PROCESS HAS STARTED AND IT WILL BE COMPLETED WITHIN NEXT ONE HOUR.
AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WOULD BE 200-210 KMPH.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 6.0. INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN NORTH OF LAT 15.0
0
N AND WEST OF LONG 88.0
0
E
ALONG ODISHA AND NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -78
0
C.
DWR VISAKHAPATNAM IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM AND REPORTED CENTRE AS LATITUDE
19.1
0
N
AND LONGITUDE
85.0
0
E AT
1500
U
T
C
. GOPALPUR (43049) HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 24
HOURS PRESSURE FALL OF 24.4 HPA,
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 98 KNOTS FROM
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER GOPALPUR (ODISHA).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 105 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 120 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS
PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
ABOUT 940 HPA.
ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION
(LAT.
0
N/ LONG.
0
E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM
SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY
12-10-2013/1500
19.1/85.0
200-210 GUSTING TO 230
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12-10-2013/1800
20.2/84.3
170-180 GUSTING TO 200
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13-10-2013/0000
21.2/84.0
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
13-10-2013/0600
22.0/83.5
50-60 GUSTING TO 70
DEEP DEPRESSION

Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

Time of issue: 2130 hours IST . Dated: 12-10-2013
(Red Message)
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/34
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm �PHAILIN� over northwest adjoining westcentral Bay
of Bengal is crossing coast close to Gopalpur (Odisha)
The very severe cyclonic storm,
PHAILIN
over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of
Bengal moved north-northwestwards during past 3 hours with a speed of 15 kmph and lay centred at
2030 hrs IST of today, the 12
th
October 2013 over northwest adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal
near latitude 19.1
0
N and longitude 85.0
0
E, close to Gopalpur. Latest observations indicate that
landfall process has started and it will be completed within next one hour. At the time of landfall,
maximum sustained wind speed would be 200-210 kmph.
Estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
12-10-2013/2030
19.1/85.0
200-210 gusting to 230
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/2330
20.2/84.3
170-180 gusting to 200
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530
21.2/84.0
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1130
22.0/83.5
50-60 gusting to 70
Deep Depression
Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
(i)
Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely
heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during
next 48 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West
Bengal during next 48 hrs..
(ii)
Gale wind:
Gale
winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal
districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha would prevail at the time of
landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be
phenomenal. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above
period.
(iii)
Storm Surge Guidance:
Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide
would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and
Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
(iv)
Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh:
Extensive
damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and
communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from
flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.
(v)
Action suggested:
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along north Andhra
Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast. Total suspension of fishing operations. Large scale
evacuation of population from coastal areas. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in vulnerable
areas. People in affected areas to remain indoors
Post landfall outlook:
Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain the intensity of very severe
cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while
moving northwestwards across interior Odisha. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy
falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at
many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Gale wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph would also prevail
for 6 hours and 60-70 for subsequent 6 hours over Odisha during the same period.
The next bulletin will be issued at 0130 hrs IST of tomorrow, the 13
th October, 2013

T C A C Bulletin

Observed & Forecast Track

Cyclone Wind Forecast

Storm Surge Prediction Model

Latest Satellite Imagery of Cyclone

NWP Guidance

Cyclone Phailin Odisha Helpline Number

Helpline Number for Cyclone Affected Odisha State is been Released. Please Note down the Numbers of the Control Room and Save Lifes by Sharing. Please Print or Note down the numbers Now for someone will be in need during and after the Cyclone Phailin devastation.

Odisha State Helpline Number

Odisha Central Control Room is 0674-2534177

DISTRICT CONTROL ROOMS
==========================
Mayurbhanj 06792-252759
Jajpur 06728-222648
Gajapati 06815-222943
Dhenkanal 06762-221376
Khurda 06755-220002
Keonjhar 06766-255437
Cuttack 0671-2507842
Ganjam 06811-263978
Puri 06752-223237
Kendrapara 06727-232803
Jagatsinghpur 06724-220368
Balasore 06782-26267
Bhadrak 06784-251881

India Braces for Extremely Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin

Tropical Cyclone Phailin Could Be Packing 10-Foot Surge

Tropical Cyclone Phailin, a category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, is approaching the northeast Indian coast. The massive storm has sustained winds of 155 mph (250 kph).

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters,�� Weather Underground�

Updated: 5:46 PM GMT on October 12, 2013

�Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has made landfall on the northeast coast of India near the town of Gopalpur (population 7,000) at 16 UTC (noon EDT) Saturday, October 12, 2013. Phailin was weakening substantially at landfall, due to interaction with land, and was rated a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), four hours before landfall. The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall. A 938 mb pressure is what one expects to find in a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, using the “Dvorak technique” of satellite wind and pressure estimation. Satellite images show that Phailin’s intense thunderstorms have warmed and shrunk in areal coverage, and radar out of Visakhapanam, India also shows a weakening of the storm’s echoes as it pushes inland. Phailin is bringing torrential rains of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave satellite instruments.

Figure 1. Radar image of Phailin at landfall. Image credit: IMD.

Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a top-end Category 4 storm with winds of 150 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Damage from Phailin
Phailin is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That storm hit with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, and brought a storm surge of 5.9 meters (19 feet) to the coast. Phailin should be able to drive a similar-sized storm surge to the coast, since it is larger in areal extent than the 1999 cyclone (although somewhat weaker, with winds perhaps 20 – 30 mph lower.) Phailin’s storm surge and Category 3 to 4 winds will cause near-catastrophic damage to a 50-mile wide swath of the coast where the eyewall comes ashore, and to the right. Hurricane Katrina was weaker at landfall than Phailin, but Katrina had hurricane-force winds that covered a much larger area, making Katrina’s storm surge much more devastating than Phailin’s will be. I think the main danger from Phailin will be from its winds. I am particularly concerned about Phailin’s wind damage potential in the city of Brahmapur (population 350,000), the 58th largest city in India. Brahmapur lies about ten miles inland, and will likely experience sustained hurricane-force winds for several hours. Phailin’s flooding potential is another huge concern, as rainfall amounts of 6 – 12 inches will fall along a swath over 100 miles inland, triggering life-threatening flash flooding.

How strong was Phailin?
Questions have been raised about the India Meteorological Department (IMD) assessments of Phailin’s strength, which were considerably lower than that of the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Both centers use satellite estimates rather than direct measurements of the winds, so we don’t know which center is correct. It is true that satellite estimates using the same techniques give different results for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans–i.e., a storm with the same appearance on satellite imagery will be weaker in the Atlantic than in the Pacific (see this chart of the differences.) It may be that this is the case in the Indian Ocean as well. IMD has looked at some buoy data to try and calibrate their satellite strength estimates, but high-end tropical cyclones are uncommon enough in the Indian Ocean that I doubt we really know whether or not Indian Ocean cyclones have the same winds as a hurricane in the Atlantic with the same satellite signature. Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 10-minute average winds for their advisories, and JTWC uses 1-minute, so the winds in the IMD advisories will be lower by at least 6%, due to the longer averaging period. This issue could be cleared up if India had its own hurricane hunter aircraft; there have been some high-level discussions about India getting a C-130 aircraft like the U.S. Air Force uses to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds.

Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Nari, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Nari was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

� � Dr. Jeff Masters � Weather Underground

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

• Google Earth Graphic Overlay

 

WTIO31 PGTW 122100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 016��
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z — NEAR 19.6N 84.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 84.9E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 21.2N 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 22.7N 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 84.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 02B HAS MADE LANDFALL
APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTHEAST OF VISAKHPATNAM, INDIA, AND HAS
QUICKLY STARTED TO LOSE ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DUE TO THE LAND
EFFECTS. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST FURTHER INTO INDIA
AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 18.7 N 85.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
��������probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
��������probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
��������probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
��������probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
��������probability for TS is 100% currently
����Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
��������probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
��������probability for TS is 100% currently
����Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
��������probability for TS is 85% currently
����Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
��������probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

TSR Storm Tracker Map PAST AND FORECAST TRACK : Tropical Storm TWO: Storm-centered zoom at 48 hours lead

Other Reports

 

Cyclone Phailin makes landfall in India

� 12 October 2013 Last updated at 20:14 BST (1914Z GMT/UTC)

The BBC’s Sanjoy Majumder: “The intensity of the winds has become stronger”

Continue reading the main story

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• BBC Weather cyclone update Watch

A huge cyclone that has forced as many as 500,000 people to flee their homes has made landfall in eastern India.

Winds were measured at 200 km/h (125mph) as Cyclone Phailin hit the coast near Gopalpur, Orissa state, at about 21:15 (15:45 GMT).

Authorities had predicted a storm surge of at least 3m (10ft) that was expected to cause extensive damage.

Officials say they are better prepared than in 1999 when a cyclone killed thousands of people in Orissa.

Cyclone Phailin has been classed as “very severe”, and the head of India’s Meteorological Office, LS Rathore, said it would remain in that category for six hours before losing strength.

Continue reading the main story

At the scene

Andrew North BBC News, Orissa

As we arrived in Brahmapur, just inland from where the cyclone had first hit the coast, we were met with a scene of apocalyptic devastation.

The town was in total darkness, the headlights of our vehicle illuminating felled trees and power lines blocking roads.

Store signs and other debris were being pitched high in the air by powerful storm gusts. Elaborate decorations for a major Hindu festival that people were due to celebrate this weekend were strewn across the main road.

Most shops are shuttered, with hundreds of residents now evacuated. Many streets are already flooded, and this may be only the beginning as further heavy rain is expected.

The lobby of our hotel is now covered with glass, after several gusts blew in its main windows. It looks set to be a terrifying night, as the cyclone sweeps through this town and a vast swathe of the Indian coastline.

The eye of the storm was moving at 10-15 km/h (6-9mph), he said.

The BBC’s Sanjoy Majumder reported heavy rain and high winds lashing Gopalpur as the cyclone made landfall.

‘Apocalyptic devastation’

The storm has ripped up trees and road signs, and cut power supplies in some areas. There were reports of window panes being shattered and roofs being blown off.

Five deaths were linked to the cyclone by Indian media, four attributed to falling trees and one to a house collapse.

Another BBC reporter, Andrew North, spoke of a scene of apocalyptic devastation in Brahmapur, just inland from where the cyclone reached the coast.

Store signs and other debris were being pitched high in the air by storm gusts and elaborate decorations for a major Hindu festival were strewn over the main road.

Officials had earlier said that no-one would be allowed to stay in mud and thatched houses along the coast of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh states, but some residents said they wanted to stay put.

“Many people refused to move, had to be convinced, and at times the police had to forcefully move them to safe places,” said Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde.

The army has been placed on standby for emergency and relief operations. Helicopters and food packages were ready to be dropped in the storm-affected areas.

Cyclone Phailin is described as the biggest storm in the region for 14 years

As many as 500,000 people have left their homes, many for storm shelters

The storm was expected to cause extensive damage to coastal areas

Authorities say they are now better prepared than in 1999, when a super-cyclone hit Orissa

Hours before the cyclone made landfall it was generating winds of 240 km/h (150mph) over the Bay of Bengal. Most of those evacuated were in Orissa state.

Sushant Sahoo, a resident of Orissa’s state capital, Bhubaneswar, told the BBC that it had been raining there since the morning, and the streets were empty.

“We have no electricity, it is very dark right now and very grim,” he said.

“I have dry food and candles. The local government has been good at getting everyone prepared and taking care of people.”

India’s eastern coast and Bangladesh are routinely hit by cyclonic storms between April and November that cause deaths and widespread damage to property.

In December 2011, Cyclone Thane hit the southern state of Tamil Nadu, killing dozens of people.

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MARITIME

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :�12-10-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �OrissaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : �����Gopalpur
Time of issue: 1600 hrs (valid for the period 1730 hrs, 12-10-2013 to 1730 hrs, 14-10-2013)It is forecasted that the wave conditions off the Odisha coast will be very rough (>4.0m) and become gradually much higher by evening hours of 12th October 2013. The wave height is forecasted to be maximum (nearly 8.5 m) between Gopalpur (Ganjam District) and Saharabedi (Jagatsingpur District) during 2330 hrs of 12 October, 2013. The swell wave heights vary in the range of 3.0 to 5.0m. The current speeds vary between 100-150 cm/sec. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (? 25 cm) would occur over Odisha during next 48 hrs. Gale winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of Odisha would prevail at the time of landfall. Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha during landfall. Fishermen out at sea along Odisha coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during the next 48 hours
���� Significant Wave Height�������������Wind Speed
Swell

Tide Predictions

Gopalpur

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :�12-10-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �Andhra PradeshComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : �����Vizag
Time of issue: 1600 hrs (valid for the period 1730 hrs, 12-10-2013 to 1730 hrs, 14-10-2013)It is forecasted that the wave conditions in the sea off north Andhra Pradesh would be very rough (> 4.0 m) and will become much higher during the evening hours on 12th October 2013. The wave height is forecasted to be maximum nearly 7.0 m between Baruva (Srikakulam District) and Ichchapuram (Srikakulam District) during 1730 hrs of 12 October, 2013. The swell wave heights vary in the range of 3.0 to 5.0m. The current speeds vary between 100-150 cm/sec. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (? 25 cm) would occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs. Gale winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh would prevail at the time of landfall. Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall. Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during the next 48 hours.
���� Significant Wave Height�������������Wind Speed
Swell

Tide Predictions

Baruva

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :�12-10-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �West Bengal
Time of issue: 1600 hrs (valid for the period 1730 hrs, 12-10-2013 to 1730 hrs, 14-10-2013)It is forecasted that the wave conditions will be rough (2.5 m � 4.0m) to very rough ( >4.0 m) off West Bengal coast during the above period. The wave height is forecasted to be maximum (nearly 5.0 m) between Digha (East Midnapore District) and Fraserganj (South 24 Parganas District) during evening hours of 12 October, 2013. The swell wave heights vary in the range of 3.0 to 4.0m. The current speeds vary between 100 and 130 cm/sec. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from afternoon of 12th October. Fishermen out at sea along West Bengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during the next 48 hours.
���� Significant Wave Height�������������Wind Speed
Swell

Tide Predictions

Sagar-Roads

AVHRR Image

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1231

WTIN01 DEMS 121231
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HRS FROM 1200 UTC OF 12-10-2013.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, PHAILIN OVER WESTCENTRAL &
ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND
LIES CENTRED AT 1430 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 12TH OCTOBER 2013
OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 18.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 85.5 DEG E,
ABOUT 90 KM SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR, 120 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
KALINGAPATNAM AND 220 KM SOUTHWEST OF PARADIP. IT WOULD MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COASTS
BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP, CLOSE TO GOPALPUR (ODISHA)
BY EVENING OF TODAY I.E. THE 12TH OCTOBER, 2013 AS A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 210-220 KMPH
GUSTING TO 240 KMPH.
����������������������
NOTE: NEXT SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL ORIGINATE AT 0100 UTC ON
DATED 12.10.2013 IN ADDITION TO ROUTINE TWO DAILY BULLETIN.
���������������������
DUTY OFFICER=

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053
FQIN01 DEMS 120053
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HRS FROM 0100 UTC OF 12-10-2013.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, PHAILIN OVER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LIES CENTRED AT 0230 HRS IST OF 12TH OCTOBER
2013 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
WITHIN HALF ADEGREE OF LATITUDE 16.9 DEG N AND LONGITUDE
87.0 DEG E, ABOUT 375 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP, 345 KM SOUTHEAST
OF GOPALPUR, AND 340 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (.)
IT WOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND
ODISHA COASTS BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP, CLOSE TO
GOPALPUR (ODISHA) BY EVENING OF TODAY I.E. THE 12TH OCTOBER, 2013
AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
OF 210-220 KMPH(. )=

END

भारत / बंगाल की खाड़ी : 10 समुद्री मील पश्चिम घूम रहा उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात ( VSCS/CAT3-SS ) 02B / Phailin 122100Z एन.आर. 20.0N 84.7E , उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश और ओडिशा तट ( आईएमडी) के लिए ( JTWC ) चक्रवात चेतावनी – 121013 2100z

उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात ( बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान ) 02B ( दो) / Phailin – Saffir-सिम्पसन स्केल पर श्रेणी 3

उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश के चक्रवात चेतावनी
और ओडिशा तट . (आईएमडी )

चक्रवात Phailin बारे में 21:15 ( 15:45 जीएमटी) में गोपालपुर , उड़ीसा , निकट तट मारा

बीबीसी समाचार – कम से कम 3 मीटर ( 10ft ) की अनुमानित वृद्धि तूफान व्यापक क्षति हो जाने की उम्मीद

डॉ. जेफ मास्टर्स , मौसम भूमिगत – उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin 10 फुट वृद्धि पैकिंग हो सकता है

( हिंदी और गुजराती