India/ Bangladesh/ Myanmar/ Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone MATMO/ Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘BULBUL’ 23W 09/1500Z position nr 21.4N 88.1E, moving NNE 06kt (JTWC)- Published 09 Nov 2019 1833Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone MATMO/ Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘BULBUL’ (23W)

MATMO is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT  WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Matmo) Warning #17
Issued at 09/1500Z

wp2319

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
091200Z — NEAR 21.2N 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 87.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 22.0N 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 22.6N 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 23.0N 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 88.1E.
09NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 23W HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A DISTINCT EYE FORMING
BUT NOW STARTING TO FILL AND WARM ONCE AGAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF BD ENHANCED
EIR IMAGERY DEPICTING A 10 NM WIDE EYE, INDIAN COMPOSITE RADAR DATA
AND SUPPORTED BY A 091206Z SSMIS 89 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWING A
VERY DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION,
PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
BUMPED UP TO 85 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF AN
AUTOMATED TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 87 KNOTS. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, TC 23W HAS UNDERGONE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS IT MOVED OVER RELATIVELY
SHALLOW, BUT VERY WARM, WATERS AND BEGAN TO TAP INTO THE DIVERGENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SSTS AND MODERATE
(20-25 KNOTS) VWS. TC 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED IN
INTENSITY AND IS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY EVEN BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL, WITH A MUCH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL AS A
COMBINATION OF TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DECAPITATION TAKE THEIR TOLL
ON THE SYSTEM. THE FIRST HINTS OF A DECOUPLING OF THE UPPER AND
LOWER LEVELS ARE EVIDENT IN THE 091206Z SSMIS IMAGERY, WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL EYE ABOUT 5 NM NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. THIS
EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND
THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 12, BUT THEREAFTER DEVELOPS A BIFURCATION SCENARIO. THE
ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REPRESENT THE LEFT ARM OF THE
BIFURCATION, TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS REPRESENTED BY THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS, WHICH TURN THE LOW LEVEL REMNANTS OF SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH AND BACK OUT TO SEA AFTER IT IS DECAPITATED BETWEEN TAU 18
AND 24. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
IN LIGHT OF THE LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z,
100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

.BULLETIN NO.: 38 (BOB/04/2019)

TIMEOFISSUE: 2140 HOURS IST DATED: 09.11.2019

FROM:INDIAMETEOROLOGICALDEPARTMENT(FAXNO.24643965/24699216/24623220)TO:CONTROLROOM,NDM,MINISTRYOFHOMEAFFAIRS(FAX.NO.23092398/23093750)CONTROLROOMNDMA(FAX.NO.26701729)JSNDMA (FAX.NO. 26701864)CABINETSECRETARIAT(FAX.NO.23012284,23018638)PSTOHON’BLEMINISTERFORS&TANDEARTHSCIENCES(FAXNO.23316745)SECRETARY,MOES,(FAXNO.24629777)H.Q.(INTEGRATEDDEFENCESTAFFANDCDS)(FAXNO.23005137/23005147)DIRECTORGENERAL,DOORDARSHAN(23385843)DIRECTORGENERAL,AIR(23421101,23421105,23421219)PIBMOES(FAXNO.23389042)UNI(FAXNO.23355841)D.G.NATIONALDISASTERRESPONSEFORCE(NDRF)(FAXNO.26105912,24363260)DIRECTOR,PUNCTUALITY,INDIANRAILWAYS(FAXNO.23388503)CHIEF SECRETARY, TAMILNADU (FAX NO.044-25672304)CHIEF SECRETARY,GOVT. OF ODISHA (FAX NO. 0674-2536660)CHIEF SECRETARY, WEST BENGAL (FAX NO. 033-22144328) CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDHRA PRADESH (FAX NO. 0863-2441029)CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS (FAX NO. 03192-232656)

Sub:Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’ (Pronounced as Bul bul) over northwest Bay of Bengal:

CYCLONE WARNING AND POST-LANDFALL OUTLOOK FOR WEST BENGAL COAST: REDMESSAGE

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm‘Bulbul’ (Pronounced as Bul bul) over northwest Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards with a speed of 11kmph during past 06 hours, and lay centred at 2030hrs ISTof today, the 9thNovember 2019, over northwest Bay of Bengal, near Lat.21.4°N and Long. 88.3°E about40km east-southeastof Sagar Islands (West Bengal),85kmeast-southeast of Digha, 125km south-southwest of Kolkata,100 km south-southwestof Canning Town (west Bengal)and210km west-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). The land fall process has started. Wall cloud region is entering into land.Itis very likely tomovenortheastwards, weaken graduallyandcross West Bengal-Bangladesh Coasts between Sagar Islands(West Bengal)and Khepupara (Bangladesh), across Sunderbandelta during next 03 hoursas a Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 110-120 Kmph gusting to 135 Kmph.The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’is being tracked by the Doppler Weather Radars atGopalpur, Paradip and Kolkata in addition to other observing platforms.Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:Date/Time(IST)PositionMaximum sustained surfacewind speed (kmph)Category of cyclonic disturbanceLat. (0N) Long. (0E)09.11.19/203021.488.3120-130gusting to 145Very Severe Cyclonic Storm09.11.19/233021.888.7110-120 gusting to 135SevereCyclonic Storm10.11.19/053022.489.380-90 gusting to 100Cyclonic Storm10.11.19/113022.990.050-60 gusting to 70Deep Depression10.11.19/173023.190.630-40 gusting to 50DepressionIndia Meteorological DepartmentEarth System Science Organisation(Ministry of Earth Sciences)

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall:

Odisha:Light to moderate rainfall at mostplaces very likely over northcoastal districts of Odishawith isolated heavy fallsover Balasore districtduring next 03hours.

West Bengal:Light to moderate rainfall at most places very likely over coastal districts of West Bengal with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 20 cm in 24 hours)at isolated places over North &South 24 Parganas, East Medinipurand isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly during next 12 hours.

North-eastern States:Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls very likely over South Assam& Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram during next 36hours

.(ii) Wind warning

Bay of Bengal:Galewind speed reaching 120-130kmph gusting to 145kmphis prevailing over northwest Bay of Bengal around the system centre.It is very likely to decreasegradually and become80-90kmph gusting to 100kmph by tomorrow the 10thNovember morningand decrease gradually thereafter.

Odisha coast: Squallywind speed reaching 50-60kmphgusting to 70kmphis likely along & offBalasore districtfor next 3hours.Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpurdistricts are likely to experience strong wind speed reaching 35-45kmph gusting to 55kmph during next03hours.

West Bengal coast: Squally wind speed reaching 70-80kmph gusting to 90kmph is prevailing along and offWest Bengal coast.It will graduallyincrease becoming galewind speed reaching 110-120kmph gusting to 135kmph during next 06hours along & off WestandEast Medinipur andNorth & South 24 Parganasdistrictsand decrease gradually thereafter.Squally wind speed reaching 50-60Kmph gusting to 70 Kmph also likely over adjoining districts of West Medinipur, Howrahand Hooghlyduring the same periodand strong wind speed reaching30 -40 kmphgusting to 50 kmph likely to prevail over Kolkataduring the same period..

(iii) Sea condition

Sea condition will be high to very roughduring next 06 hours along & off north Odisha coast and along & off West Bengal & Bangladesh coasts till10thNovembermorning.Sea condition isvery high to phenomenal over northwest Bay of Bengal. It is very likely to to improve and becomevery rough to Highby tomorrow, the 10thNovember morning andimprove gradually thereafter. Sea condition will be high to very high over northeast Bay of tonightand become highto very rough for subsequent 12 hours.

(iv)Storm Surge

Storm surge of about 1.0 to 2.0meter height above Astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of South and North 24 Parganas and 0.5-1.0 meter height above Astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of east Medinipurduring next 03 hours.The maximum extent of inundation is likely to be around 2 km over South and North 24 Parganas.

(v)Fishermen Warning

Total suspension of fishing operations over Odisha-West Bengal coaststill morningof 10thNovember.Fishermen are advised not to venture into Sea along & off Odisha –West Bengal coasts till 10thmorning.Fishermen are advised not to venture into north Bay of Bengal for next 24 hours.

(vi)Damage Expected over coastal districts of West Bengal:

Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.Minor damage to power and communication lines.Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees.Dead limbs blown from trees. Major damage to coastal crops. Damage to embankments/ salt pans.Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

vii) Action suggestedfor coastal districts of West Bengal

Total suspension of fishing operations till 10thmorning.Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places.

Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas of South and North 24 Parganas. People in affected areas to remain indoors.Rail and Road traffic to be regulated.Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.Beach movement to be restricted

Post-Landfall Outlook

After the landfall over Sunderban delta by night of today, the 9th November as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph, it is very likely to move east-northeastwards across Bangladesh and weaken gradually. As such, the system is expected to maintain Cyclone intensity till 10th morning over Bangladesh and adjoining areas of Gangetic West Bengal North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya district.

Under its influence, light to moderate rainfall atmost places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya districts of West Bengaltill the morning of 10thNovember2019.

Gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph is likely over North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya districts of West Bengal during the night of today, the 9thNovember for the next 06 hoursand decrease gradually thereafter becoming squally wind speed reaching 50-60Kmph gusting to 70 Kmph over thesedistricts till 10thmorning.

Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 Kmph gusting to 60 Kmph is likely over adjoining districts of West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly during the same period.

Strong wind speed reaching,30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph is likely over Kolkata during the night of today, 9thNovember 2019.

The next bulletin will beissued at 0230hrs IST of 10thNovember,2019.

(V.R. Durai)Scientist-E, RSMC,NewDelh

Source: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

Synoptic Chart 09/11/2019,0600 UTC

 

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN, SL NO: 27 (TWENTY SEVEN), DATE: 09.11.2019
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “BULBUL” (ECP: 988 HPA) OVER NORTHWEST BAY
AND ADJOINING AREA WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “BULBUL”, MOVED

NORTHEASTWARDS AT A SPEED OF ABOUT 08 KPH AND STARTED CROSSING WEST BENGAL-
KHULNA COAST (NEAR SUNDERBAN) AT ABOUT 09 PM TODAY (09 NOVEMBER, 2019) AND NOW

LIES OVER NORTHWEST BAY AND ADJOINING COASTAL AREAS OF GANGETIC WEST BENGAL &
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF BANGLADESH (LAT. 21.4°N, LONG. 88.3°E). IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FURTHER, WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MAY COMPLETE CROSSING
WEST BENGAL-KHULNA COAST BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (09 NOVEMBER, 2019).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE SEVERE CYCLONE CENTRE IS
ABOUT 100 KPH RISING TO 120 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH NEAR THE
SEVERE CYCLONE CENTRE.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED GREAT
DANGER SIGNAL NO. TEN (R) TEN. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI,
BARISHAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE
ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORT OF CHATTOGRAM HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED GREAT DANGER
SIGNAL NO. NINE (R) NINE. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI,
CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER GREAT DANGER
SIGNAL NUMBER NINE (R) NINE.
MARITIME PORT OF COX’S BAZAR HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED LOCAL WARNING
SIGNAL NUMBER FOUR (R) FOUR.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF KHULNA, SATKHIRA, CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR,
FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI,
BAGERHAT AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED
UP TO 80-100 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE
OF THE STORM.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “BULBUL” AND THE
MOON PHASE, THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI,
LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISHAL, PIROZPUR,
JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE
LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 5-7 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN
IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

TO
1. HON’BLE MINISTER, MINISTRY OF DISASTER & RELIEF. FAX: 9545405.
2. CABINET SECRETARY, FAX: 9566559.
3. PRINCIPAL SECRETARY TO THE HON’BLE PRIME MINISTER. FAX: 9143377
4. SECRETARY TO THE HON’BLE PRIME MINISTER, FAX: 8128799
5. SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF DEFENCE, FAX: 9110535,
6. SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FAX: 9540555
7. SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND RELIEF, FAX: 9566559/9545405.
8. SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES, FAX: 9576773.
9. JOINT SECY. (W&D), MOD, FAX: 9110535. 10. SSF, FAX:8111351/9113651 , 11. CPP, FAX: 933 8401. 12. DDM : 9851615.
13. NHQ, FAX: 8754270, 9885633. 14. SHIPPING MINISTRY, FAX: 9660311, 9562007, 15. NDRCC, FAX: 9549148, 9540567
16. BIWTA, FAX: 9551072. 17. BTV FAX: 8312927.18. BETAR FAX: 8117850.19. FFWC, FAX 9557386.20. UNB, FAX: 9344556
21. BSS, FAX 9557929 22. MMO, CTG, FAX: 031-2500988 23. CDMP, FAX: 9890854. 24.COAST GUARD, FAX: 9140092
25.PORT AUTHORITIES, MONGLA 04662-75224 26.PORT AUTHORITIES, CHITTAGONG: 710593 27. BSS: 9557929, 9551052
28. HON’BLE PRIME MINISTER’S, ARMED FORCES DEPT. (AFD), FAX: 8754399, 8115900, 8823233.
29. BANGLADESH ARMY, FAX: 8754455 30. BANGLADESH AIR FORCE, FAX: 8751931 31. REUTERS: 8312976
32. BIWTC: 9563653. 33. ATN: 8111876/ 9139883 34. UNHCR: 8826557 35. SPARRSO: 8113080 36. UNDP: 8123196
37. channel I: 9343674 38. RTV: 9130879-80 39.JIKA BD :9891689 40. PORT AUTHORITIES, PAYRA, FAX. 031-2510889.
41. D.C COX’S BAZAR: 0341-63263. 42. SOMOY TV: 9670057, 43.INDEPENDENT TV:8879001-2, 44. ETV: 8189905-6
EPENDENT TV:8879001-2, 45. ETV: 8189905-6

Phone: 9135742, 9141437
FAX : 9119230,58152019
Web Site: http://www.bmd.gov.bd
Email: info@bmd.gov.bd

Govt. of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
StormWarningCenter
Agargaon, Dhaka-1207

(Dr. Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik)

Meteorologist
For Director
09, 2200 BST

xxxx

MYANMAR

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

9. 11.2019)    According to the observations at (21:30)hrs M.S.T today, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over the Notrhwest Bay of Bengal has moved to Northeastwards. It has started crossing West Bengal and Bangladesh Coast between Sagar Islands and Khepupara.Weather is cloudy over the North Bay and Westcentral Bay and partly cloudy over the Andaman Sea and elsewhere over the Bay of Bengal.

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm No.28, 2019

9th November, 2019 22:00 MST Today

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

According to the observations at (21:30)hrs M.S.T today, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over the Notrhwest Bay of Bengal has moved to Northeastwards. It has started crossing West Bengal and Bangladesh Coast between Sagar Islands and Khepupara.

During next (12)hrs forecast

          The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “BULBUL” continuously move to Bangladesh Coast during next (12)hrs. It is downgraded into Severe Cyclonic Storm and forecast to move Northeastwards.

General caution

Due to the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “BULBUL”, rain or thundershowers will be fairly widespread to widespread in Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Bago, Yangon and Ayeyarwady Regions and Kachin, Southern Shan, Chin and Rakhine States, isolated to scattered in Naypyitaw, Tanintharyi Region, (Northern and Eastern)Shan, Kayah, Kayin and Mon States with likelihood of isolated heavyfalls in Sagaing, Mandalay and Magway Regions, Chin and Rakhine States within next (48)hours commencing tonight.

          Frequent squalls with rough to very rough seas will be experienced off and along Rakhine Coasts. Surface wind speed in squalls may reach (55-60)m.p.h. Sea will be moderate to rough elsewhere in Myanmar waters. Wave height will be about (10-15) feet in off and along Rakhine Coasts and (7-9) feet in Deltaic, Gulf of Mottama, off and along Mon-Taninthayi Coast.

Advisory

          Strong wind, heavy rainfall and landslide may occur due to the influence of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “BULBUL”. People who are living near high land areas in Sagaing Region, Chin and Rakhine States, beware of landslide event and trawlers, vessels and ships off and along Rakhine Coast are advised to avert possible condition.

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Oman/ Yemen/ Somalia/ Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm KYARR 04A 291500Z position near 19.5N 62.9E, moving NW 02kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Oct 2019 1955Z (GMT/UTC)

SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR

KYARR is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 45 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Tropical Cyclone 04A (Kyarr) Warning #20
Issued at 29/1500Z

io0419-2

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 19.5N 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 63.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 19.6N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 19.4N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.0N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 18.3N 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.0N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 14.3N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 11.8N 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 62.9E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A WEAK EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 291158Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED LOWER AT
105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, CONSISTENT WITH A 291230Z CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. TC 04A IS TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE WESTERN STR WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36
DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND
POTENTIALLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

 

 

 

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICALCYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO.38

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHITO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 38 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700UTC OF 29.10.2019 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 29.10.2019.

SUB:(A) EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘KYARR’ (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR) OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL & NORTH ARABIAN SEA

.(B) WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREA

(A) EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘KYARR’ (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR) OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL& NORTH ARABIAN SEA

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM‘KYARR’OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL & NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 04KMPH DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500HRS UTC OF 29THOCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.5°N AND LONGITUDE 62.9°E,ABOUT 1040 KM WEST-NORTHWESTOF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA), 990KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 440KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30THOCTOBERMORNING,RE-CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADENOFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE 0600UTCOF 30THOCTOBER AND FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY THE 0000UTCOF 31STOCTOBER.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:DATE/TIME(IST)POSITION(LAT.0N/LONG.0E)MAXIMUMSUSTAINEDSURFACEWINDSPEED(KMPH)CATEGORYOFCYCLONICDISTURBANCE29.10.19/150019.5/62.9180-190 GUSTING TO 210EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM29.10.19/180019.6/62.7170-180GUSTING TO 200EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/000019.6/62.3160-170GUSTING TO 190EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/060019.5/61.9145-155GUSTING TO 170VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/120019.4/61.6130-140 GUSTING TO 155VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM31.10.19/000019.1/61.1110-120 GUSTING TO 130SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM31.10.19/120018.6/60.490-100 GUSTING TO 110SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM01.11.19/000017.7/59.370-80 GUSTING TO 90CYCLONIC STORM01.11.19/120016.7/58.260-70 GUSTING TO 80CYCLONIC STORM02.11.19/000015.7/57.050-60 GUSTING TO 70DEEP DEPRESSION02.11.19/120014.7/55.940-50GUSTING TO 60DEPRESSION03.11.19/000013.7/54.825-35 GUSTING TO 45DEPRESSIONREMARKS:AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1500 UTC OF 29THOCTOBER, 2019, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 5.5/CI 5.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 17.50NTO 21.00N AND LONG 61.00E TO 64.50E. THE MINIMUM CTT IS MINUS 93DEG C.THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943HPA. THE SEACONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.AT 1500 UTC A SHIP LOCATED NEAR LAT. 16.0°N / 64.5°E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 1008.8HPAAND WIND 1900/25 KNOTS.THE MJO LIES IN THE PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 3 DAYS AND ENTER INTO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITDUE LESS THAN 1 THEREAFTER. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 250X10-5 SEC-1TOTHESOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30X10-5S-1TO THE SOUTHEASTOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 20X10-5S-1TO THE SOUTHEAST OFTHE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE(15-20KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER MOST PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA IS AROUND 27-28°C WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE, IT IS WARMER(29-30°C). TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTEROVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEAS IS 20-40 KJ/CM2WHILE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM2.TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE CONTINUEDREDUCTION IN WARM AND DRY AIR INCURSION IN THE SOUTHWESTERNSECTORSOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS TAKING PLACE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. ALL THESE ENVIRONMENTAL, DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 19°N. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BYTHEWINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EASTOF THE SYSTEM.AS A RESULT, IT IS CONTINUING TO MOVEWEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY BEING IN THE COL REGION. ITWILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THEANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ARABIAN PENINSULA, LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SYSTEMBY 0000 UTC OF 30THOCTOBER.SUBSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDSAND VERY LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS THEREAFTER.MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE ABOVE INFERENCE.

WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREATHE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREAPERSISTS. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.

(V R DURAI)SCIENTIST-F, RSMC, NEW DELH

Source: National Bulletin


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NO TSR Storm Alert

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

K29 Doc R

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

WINDY

https://www.windy.com/?18.663,61.875,5

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

India

WTIN01 DEMS 291800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 29 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM\U92ADYARR\U4E39VER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AND NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 2 KTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LAY
CENTRED AT 1200 HRS UTC OF 29 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 DEG
N AND LONGITUDE 63.1 DEG E, ABOUT 1020 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA), 990 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 460 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30 TH OCTOBER MORNING,RE-CURVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF
SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO WEAKEN INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE 0600 UTC OF 30
TH OCTOBER AND FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY THE 0000 UTC
OF 31 ST OCTOBER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
130 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 00 UTC 19.6 N / 62.3 E MAX WIND 90 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 12 UTC 19.4 N / 61.6 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN NOW LIES OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND
ADJOINING COMORIN AREA. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N: CYCLONIC
20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO
THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 85/90 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS TO THE S
OF 14 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 70/75 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 6 D EG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA VARIABLE 03 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Arabian Sea: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm VAYU 13/0600Z near 20.5°N 69.3°E, moving N 03kt 978hpa (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 13 Jun 2019 1505Z (GMT/UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm VAYU

 

VAYU is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

ftrack-1

 

 

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘VAYU’ over East-central Arabian:

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 18 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL ANDARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72HOURS ISSUED AT 0900UTC OF 13.06.2019 BASED ON 0600UTC OF 13.06.2019.THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘VAYU’(PRONOUNCED AS VAA’YU) OVER NORTHEAST & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 05 KMPH IN LAST SIX HOURSAND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTCOF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.5°N AND LONGITUDE 69.3°E OVER NORTHEAST & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 170 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIU(42914), 120 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT) AND 130 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PORBANDAR (42830)(GUJARAT).IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA COASTAFFECTING GIR SOMNATH, DIU, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA DISTRICTS OF GUJARAT STATE WITH WIND SPEED 90-100 KMPH GUSTING TO 110 KMPH DURING NEXT 12 HOUR

See full details  >>>>http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

Source: http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northindian/2019/io022019/


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 13 Jun, 2019 12:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm VAYU is currently located near 20.8 N 69.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 95 kts (109 mph). VAYU is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. VAYU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Porbandar (21.6 N, 69.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Veraval (21.0 N, 70.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Diu (20.7 N, 71.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Jamnagar (22.5 N, 70.1 E)
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Mandvi (22.9 N, 69.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Morbi (22.7 N, 70.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of US Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

National Disaster Management Authority, Govt of India

Twitter: @ndmaindia

Other information source

Twitter: @CycloneVayu

docR V13

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 130900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 13 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE-FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAA’YU) OVER
NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 03 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE
20.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 69.3 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 170 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIU
(42914), 120 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT) AND
130 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PORBANDAR (42830)(GUJARAT).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA COAST AFFECTING GIR
SOMNATH, DIU, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA DISTRICTS
OF GUJARAT STATE WITH WIND SPEED 49-54 KTS GUSTING TO 59 KTS DURING
NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO
90 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 HPA (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

At 1200 UTC, 13 June 2019, VAYU (IO02) was located in the Arabian Sea basin at 20.8°N and 69.0°E. The current intensity was 95 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 335 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb – NCAR

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northindian/2019/io022019/

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Bangladesh/ Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone (ESCS) FANI 01B 02/1500Z position near 18.0N 84.9E, moving N 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 May 2019 1748Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FANI 01B

(Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)

FANI is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA COAST BETWEEN GOPALPUR (43049)AND CHANDBALI(42973), SOUTH OF PURI (43053) DURING 0300-0600 UTC TOMORROW THE 3RD MAY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 170-180 KMPH GUSTING TO 200 KMPH (RSMC New Delhi)

  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 48 FEET- JTWC

See comments at bottom of page for updates

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Fani) Warning #23
Issued at 02/1500Z

io0119

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021200Z — NEAR 17.6N 84.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 84.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 19.2N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 21.0N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 22.8N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 24.7N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 26.5N 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM EAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST
SIX HOURS. THERE IS NOW A 16 NM WIDE ROUND, SYMMETRICAL EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION, WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. BASED ON
THE EYE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY AN EYE FEATURE IN A
021137Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135
KTS IS BETWEEN DVORAK VALUES OF T6.5-7.0 (127-140 KTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW, REFLECTING THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM. INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
TC 01B IS TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS. AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE STR AXIS, THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNTIL DISSIPATING BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK. BASED
ON THE TIGHT CLUSTER IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHITROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 43

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 43 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALIDFOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUEDAT 1500UTC OF 02.05.2019

BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 02.05.2019.

SUB: EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM „FANI‟(PRONOUNCED AS ‘FONI’) OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 15KMPH IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 02NDMAY, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.5°N AND LONGITUDE 84.8°E, ABOUT 275KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PURI (43053) (ODISHA), 160 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43150)(ANDHRA PRADESH) AND 570KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA(42901)(WEST BENGAL). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA COAST BETWEEN GOPALPUR (43049)AND CHANDBALI(42973), SOUTH OFPURI (43053) DURING0300-0600 UTC TOMORROW THE 3RDMAYWITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 170-180 KMPH GUSTING TO 200 KMPH.LANDFALL PROCESS IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TILL 0900UTCOFTOMORROW THE 3RDMAY. AFTER THE LANDFALL THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND EMERGE INTO GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF 90-100 KMPH GUSTING TO 115 KMPH BY EARLY MORNING OF 4TH. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND EMERGE INTO BANGLADESH ON 4THMAYEVENING AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED 60-70 KMPH GUSTING TO 80 KMPH. THE CYCLONE IS BEING TRACKED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS VISHAKHAPATNAM & MACHILIPATNAM. FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

Date/Time(UTC)Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)Category of cyclonicDisturbance

02.05.19/120017.5/84.8200-210gusting to 230Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

02.05.19/180018.3/85.0190-200 gusting to 220Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/000019.0/85.3180-190 gusting to 210Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/060019.9/85.7170-180 gusting to 200Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/120020.6/86.1150-160 gusting to 175VerySevere Cyclonic Storm

04.05.19/000022.1/87.3100-110 gusting to 125Severe Cyclonic Storm

04.05.19/120023.8/88.760-70 gusting to 80Cyclonic Storm

05.05.19/000025.5/90.140-50 gusting to 60Depression

05.05.19/120027.1/91.520-30 gusting to 40Well Marked Low

STORM SURGE GUIDANCE:

STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.5 METER HEIGHT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS VERY LIKELY TO INUNDATE LOW LYING AREAS OF GANJAM, KHURDA, PURI & JAGATSINGHPUR DISTRICTS OF ODISHA STATE AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

REMARKS:

AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1200 UTC OF 02ND MAY, 2019 THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRALBAY OF BENGAL IS C.I6.0.EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 KMSIS VISIBLEIN SATELLITE IMAGERY.DT IS 6.0.PT AND MET ALSO AGREE WITH THIS. THEASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSECONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 16.2°N TO 19.4°N TO THEWEST OF LONG.86.5°E. MINIMUM CLOUDTOP TEMPERATUREIS MINUS 93°C.

DWR MACHILIPATNAM INDICTAE CIRCULAR EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF 24KM.DWR VISAKHAPATNAM ALSO REPORTS CIRCULAR EYE, BUTWITH A DIAMETER OF 30KM.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105KNOTS GUSTING TO 115KNOTS.THESEA CONDITION IS PHENEOMENALAROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937HPA.

AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY,A BUOY (23093) LOCATED NEAR LAT. 16.3°N AND LONG 88.0°E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001.9HPAAND MEAN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION 190° AND WIND SPEED 17KNOTS.ANOTHER BUOY (23092) LOCATED NEAR LAT. 17.4°N AND LONG 89.1°E REPORTED MEANSEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1002.8HPAAND MEAN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION 210° AND WIND SPEED 18KNOTS.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 5AFTER 2 DAYSWITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1. HENCE, MJO ISFAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION &MAINTAINENCE OFINTENSITYOF THE SYSTEM OVER BAY OF BENGAL.THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 30-31 ̊COVER WESTCENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL.

IT DECREASE TO 29 ̊C OFF ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COASTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 100-120 KJ/CM2OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER REGIONS OF HIGH HEAT POTENTIAL FOR NEXT 24HOURS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL REDUCES TO LESS THAN 60 KJ/CM2OFF ODISHA COASTS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOURIMAGERIES INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SYSTEM CENTRE.HOWEVER, DRYAIR INCURSION IS SEEN TO BE TAKING PLACE IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM FROM SOUTH PENINSULAR INDIA.

THE LOWER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITYIS300X10-6SEC-1TO THE SOUTHWEST OFTHESYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCEIS ABOUT 40X10-5SEC-1 TOTHE NORTHEASTOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPERLEVEL DIVERGENCEISABOUT 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE(05-10KNOTS) TO THE SOUTHOFTHE SYSTEMCENTRE ANDIT DECREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THESEFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OFEXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TILL 0600 UTC OF 03RDMAYAND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTERAS THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER WATERS AND INTERACT WITH LAND.

THE WESTERLY TROUGH IN THE DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND LYING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE ANDTHEANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL INTHE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELSARESTEERINGTHE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS.DUE TO COMBINED IMPACT OF THESE TWO STEERING FORCES THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS INCREASINGGRADUALLY.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, IMD GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS), AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE.

(NEETHA K GOPAL)(SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI)

Source: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN, SL NO: 32 (THIRTY TWO), DATE: 02.05.2019

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” (PRONUNCIATION: FONI) OVER WESTCENTRAL
BAY AND ADJOINING AREA MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY (LAT. 17.9°N, LONG. 84.9°E) AND WAS
CENTRED AT 09 PM TODAY (02 MAY 2019) ABOUT 905 KM SOUTHWEST OF CHATTOGRAM PORT, 875 KM
SOUTHWEST OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 725 KM SOUTHWEST OF MONGLA PORT AND 750 KM SOUTHWEST
OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION, CROSS ODISHA COAST OF INDIA BY AFTERNOON OF 03 MAY 2019 AND THEN MOVED
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVER ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTAL AREA, REACH KHULNA
AND ADJOINING SOUTHWESTERN PART OF BANGLDESH BY EVENING OF 03 MAY 2019. KHULNA AND
ADJOINING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGION OF BANGLADESH MAY EXPERIENCE THE PERIPHERAL
EFFECT OF THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” BY THE MORNING OF 03 MAY 2019.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 74 KMS OF THE STORM CENTRE IS ABOUT 180 KPH
RISING TO 200 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER
SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN (R) SEVEN. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI,
BARISHAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE
ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER SEVEN (R) SEVEN.
MARITIME PORT OF CHATTOGRAM HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL
NUBMER SIX (R) SIX. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI,
CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL
NUMBER SIX (R) SIX.
MARITIME PORT OF COX’S BAZAR HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED LOCAL WARNING
SIGNAL NUBMER FOUR (R) FOUR.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” AND THE NEW MOON
PHASE, THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI,
LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISHAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI,
BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE
INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR,
BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISHAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA,
SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP
TO 90-110 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THE STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED
TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

Phone: 9135742, 9141437
FAX : 9119230, 58152019
Web Site: http://www.bmd.gov.bd
Email: info@bmd.gov.bd

Govt. of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
StormWarningCenter
Agargaon, Dhaka-1207

(Kh. Hafizur Rahman)
Meteorologist
For Director
02, 2130 BST

 

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

(2.5.2019)     According to the observations at (22:30)hrs M.S.T today, the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” over the Westcentral Bay has moved North-Northeastwards. It is centered at about (150)miles South-Southwest of Puri, (90)miles East- Southeast of Vishakhapatnam and (290)miles South-Southwest of Digha(India). It is forecast to move North-Northeastwards. Weather is cloudy over the West central Bay and partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea and elsewhere in the Bay of Bengal.

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm No.37, 2019

                                                                                                                                               Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm No.37, 2019

          2nd  May, 2019 23:00 MST Today

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

According to the observations at (22:30)hrs M.S.T today, the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” over the Westcentral Bay has moved North-Northeastwards. It is centered at about (150)miles South-Southwest of Puri, (90)miles East- Southeast of Vishakhapatnam and (290)miles South-Southwest of Digha(India). It is forecast to move North-Northeastwards.

It is not moving towards Myanmar coasts, the present stage of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm is coded yellow stage.

Position of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, center pressure and wind

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” is located at Latitude (17.5) degree North and Longitude (84.8) degree East, centre pressure of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm is (937)hPa and maximum wind speed near the center is (120)miles per hour at (22:30) hrs MST today.

During next (24)hrs forecast

It is forecast to cross ODISHA Coast between Gopalpur and Chandbali, near Puri during next (24)hours and weaken gradually into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI”. It is likely to continue to move North-Northeastwards.

General caution

Under the influence of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI”, rain or thundershowers will be fairly widespread in Upper Sagaing, Yangon and Thanintharyi Regions, Kachin, Chin, Kayin and Mon States, isolated to scattered in Naypyitaw, Lower Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwady Regions, Shan, Rakhine and Kayah States with isolated heavy falls in some areas within next (2.5.2019) to (4.5.2019) commencing today morning.

Occasional squalls with rough seas will be experienced off and along Myanmar Coasts. Surface wind speed in squalls may reach (40-45)m.p.h. Wave height will be about (10-13) feet off and along Myanmar Coasts.

Under the influence of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI”, people should be awared domastic flight, trawlers, vessels and ships off and along Myanmar Coasts.

Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (Myanmar)
Public weather call: 067-411252/01-667766


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 2 May, 2019 12:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm FANI is currently located near 17.6 N 84.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 135 kts (155 mph). FANI is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FANI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Puri (19.9 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bangladesh
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Baleshwar (21.5 N, 87.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Kolkata (22.5 N, 88.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Kharagpur (22.4 N, 87.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Jamshedpur (22.8 N, 86.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Jessore (23.2 N, 89.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DocR F2

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 021315

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 02 MAY 2019.

PART:-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM FANI (PRONOUNCED AS FONI) OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED FURTHER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH
ASPEED OF ABOUT 9 KNOTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC
OF 02ND MAY, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.1
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.8 DEG E, ABOUT 320 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PURI
(43053) (ODISHA), 170 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43150)
(ANDHRA PRADESH) AND 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901) (WEST
BENGAL).
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
125 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENEOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 HPA (.)
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA
COAST BETWEEN GOPALPUR (43049) AND CHANDBALI (42973), AROUND PURI
(43053) DURING 0300-0600 UTC TOMORROW THE 3RD MAY WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 90-95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. LANDFALL
PROCESS IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TILL 0900 UTC OF TOMORROW THE 3RD
MAY.
F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/05/02 AT 21 UTC 18.6 N / 85.3 E MAX WIND 100 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/05/03 AT 09 UTC 20.2 N/ 86.0 E (OVERLAND)
MAX WIND SPEED 95 KTS EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART:-II:

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO E OF 76 DEG E (.)
3)REST AREA: W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 8 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY1)S OF 8 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 7 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 7 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N:W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/S-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-10.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 95 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 5.0-8.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 80/85 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Bay Of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm Phethai 08B 15/1500Z position nr 10.8N 84.9E, moving NNW 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Dec 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Phethai/ Tropical Cyclone 08B

DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS – RSMC New Delhi

INDIA: Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 08B (Eight) Warning #02
Issued at 15/1500Z

io0818

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 10.4N 85.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 85.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 11.9N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 13.4N 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 15.1N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 16.6N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 19.1N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 151251Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A 150326Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF
BENGAL. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER INDIA. DUE TO TC 08B’S BROAD STRUCTURE AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 08B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING
VWS (30-50 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, COOLER SST (25-26C),
DRIER AIR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TC 08B WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72 AS IT
BEGINS TO RECURVE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

INDIA

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 1
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 1 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 15.12.2018 BASED ON 1200 UTC
OF 15.12.2018.
DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL:
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI (PRONOUNCED AS PAY-TI)’
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 15TH DECEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.3°N AND LONGITUDE 84.9°E, ABOUT 440 KM EASTNORTHEAST
OF TRINCOMALEE (43418) (SRI LANKA), 590 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI (43278) (TAMIL NADU) AND 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MACHILIPATNAM
(43185) (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS
AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN
MACHILIPATNAM AND KAKINADA DURING 17TH DECEMBER AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat.°N/ long.°E)
Maximum sustained
surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
15.12.18/1200 10.3/84.9 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
15.12.18/1800 11.0/84.4 65-75 gusting to 85 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/0000 11.8/83.7 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/0600 12.4/83.2 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/1200 13.3/82.7 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/0000 15.0/82.1 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/1200 16.4/82.1 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/0000 17.5/82.6 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/1200 18.3/83.4 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1200 UTC ON 15TH DECEMBER THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM OVER SW BAY & N/HOOD IS T 2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER AREA
BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.5°N TO 15.0°N AND LONG 82.0°E TO 92.0°E (.) MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93.1° C.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA
IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4 WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH AMPLITUDE
GREATER THAN 1 FOR NEXT 4-5 DAYS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION & INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) IS 28-29˚C AROUND THE SYSTEM AREA. IT IS DECREASING SLIGHTLY BECOMING
26-28˚C TOWARDS WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ALONG & OFF ANDHRA
PRADESH COAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2
OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF BOB ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 60×10-
5 SECOND-1 TOWARDS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. LOWER LEVEL
VORTICITY IS 200×10-6 SECOND 1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS 20×10-5 SECOND-1 TOWARDS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND
INCREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES WARM AND MOIST AIR FEEDING INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM FROM
SOUTHEAST SECTOR AND DRY & COLD AIR PREVAILS OVER PENINSULAR INDIA. ALL
THESE MAY LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 16°N. THE SYSTEM IS BEING GUIDED
BY THE ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA, AND HENCE WILL HAVE MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. AS PER THE
MODEL FORECAST A DEEP TROUGH IN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES IS
APPROACHING THE INDIAN REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO RECURVATURE OF THE
SYSTEM TO NORTHEAST AFTER LANDFALL OVER ANDHRA PRADESH COAST. FURTHER
UNDER THE COMBIND EFFECT OF ANTICYCLONE AND ABOVE TROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. IT MAY
LEAD TO INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION. HENCE THERE IS POSSIBILITIES
OF WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY ON 17TH DECEMBER BEFORE LANDFALL DUE
TO DRY & COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHWEST AND COLDER SST & LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND HIGH WIND SHEAR. LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND SUGGEST
WIND SPEED OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS ARE HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. MOST OF
THE NWP MODEL GUIDENCE AGREE WITH ABOVE ANALYSIS.
(V.R. DURAI)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Dec, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EIGHT is currently located near 10.4 N 85.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). EIGHT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Kavali (14.9 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151609

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1500 UTC 15 DECEMBER 2018.

PART:-I STORM WARNING.

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 09 KNOTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM PHETHAI (PRONOUNCED
AS PAY-TI) AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 15 TH DECEMBER, 2018 OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.9
DEG E, ABOUT 440 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA), 590 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU) AND 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MACHILIPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
BETWEEN MACHILIPATNAM AND KAKINADA DURING 0900 UTC TO 1200 UTC OF
17 TH DECEMBER (.)

PART:-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E :N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 72 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E TO 72 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E :NE/N-LY 15/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 1 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N :NE/E-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:NE/N-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 16 DEG N TO 70 DEG E AND NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF16 DEG N (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E NE-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 20 DEG N :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N :NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E TO 72 DEG E :NE-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 62 DEG E (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 72 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
4)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E :NE/N-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 66 DEG E 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA :0.5-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N: CYCLONIC 40/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: W/NW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-4.5-9.0 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N E-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS TO THE W OF 87 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N NW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2.5-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 15 DEG N CYCLONIC 40/54 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 93 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG TO W OF 93 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 15 DEG N :5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2.5-5.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 17 DEG N : N/NE-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
1)S OF 17 DEG N :CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 18 DEG N :5.0-10.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 3.5-5.0 MTR (.)

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Sri Lanka/ Bay of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm GAJA 07B 142100Z 11.7N 83.6E, moving SW 08kt (JTWC) Expected to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm within 12hrs (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 14 Nov 2018 2100Z (GMT/UTC)

CYCLONIC STORM GAJA 07B

India, Sri Lanka and Bay of Bengal be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 07B (Gaja) Warning #17
Issued at 14/2100Z

io0718

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141800Z — NEAR 11.8N 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 84.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 11.3N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 10.9N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 10.8N 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 10.8N 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 10.9N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 11.2N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 11.4N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 141548Z ASCAT
PASS WHICH SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS, EXTENDING ABOUT 20 NM FROM THE
CENTER, IN ALL QUADRANTS. LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFICATION. TC 07B IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN INTACT AND
CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24,
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 07B TO INTENSIFY TO ABOUT 70
KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN INDIA
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, TC 07B WILL EMERGE
OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEAR 35 KNOTS
THROUGH TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH PREDICTS
RECURVATURE AND SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON
200 NM OF MODEL SPREAD (WITHOUT GFS) BY TAU 120, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z,
151500Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

IMD Logo

ftrack IMD G14

sector-ir

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 29
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) NATIONAL
CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 60 HOURS ISSUED AT 1600 UTC OF
14.11.2018 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 14.11.2018.
CYCLONIC STORM ‘GAJA’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘GAJA’ OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE 12.2°N AND LONGITUDE 84.0°E, ABOUT 410 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI
(43278) (TAMIL NADU) AND 480 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43347) (TAMIL NADU). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND CROSS TAMIL NADU COAST BETWEEN PAMBAN
(43363) AND CUDDALORE (43329) DURING 1200 & 1500 UTC OF 15TH NOVEMBER AS A CYCLONIC
STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 80 KMPH-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
14.11.18/1500 12.2/84.0 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
14.11.18/1800 12.1/83.6 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/0000 11.7/82.7 90-100 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/0600 11.2/81.8 90-100 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/1200 10.8/80.5 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
16.11.18/0000 10.6/78.9 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
16.11.18/1200 10.5/77.1 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
17.11.18/0000 10.4/75.3 20-30 gusting to 40 Low
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER 2018, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS C.I. 2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER BAY
OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 11.0°N TO 16.0°N AND LONGITUDE 82.0°E TO 86.0°E.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 86°C.

AT 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER, A BOUY LOCATED AT 13.5°N/84.2°E REPORTED A
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1005.8 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 50°/
23 KNOTS. ANOTHER BOUY LOCATED AT 14°N/87°E REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 1009 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 110°/8 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. STATE OF
SEA IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 5 WITH
AMPLITUDE CLOSE TO 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT 2 DAYS WITH
AMPLITUDE LESS THAN THAN 1. HENCE MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL DURING
NEXT 2 DAYS. THUS, IT WILL FAVOUR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-29°C
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL(TCHP) IS 50-80 KJ/CM2 AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. IT IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OF THE
ORDER 10X10-5 SECOND-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL VORTICITY
IS OF THE ORDER 120X10-6 SECOND-1 TO SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER OF 20X10-5 SECOND-1 TO THE NORTHEAST
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
OVER THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALSO ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. AS PER THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY, WARM AIR ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE NEAR NORTH TAMIL NADU AND ANDHRA PRADESH
COASTS. CLOUD IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD ORGANISATION WITH
BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRE FROM NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
SECTORS RESULTING IN CURVED BAND PATTERN FOR THE SYSTEM. THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS FOVOURABLE FOR INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE WHICH CAN LEAD TO
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ALL THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 12
HOURS INTO A MARGINAL SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. HOWEVER, WHILE MOVING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA WHICH CAN INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFIFCATION OF THE SYSTEM AND
RATHER CAN CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG LAT 15°N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST (ARABIAN SEA) AND THE COL REGION TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TILL LANDFALL. THEREAFTER IT WILL MOVE IN A NEAR
WESTWARDS DIRECTION WITH INCREASE IN SPEED OF MOVEMENT.
(D.JOARDAR)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI

WEATHER FORECAST FOR 15th NOVEMBER 2018

(Issued at 1200 noon on 14th November 2018)

The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over the Central Bay of Bengal is now located approximately 660km away from Kankasanturai to the northeast of Sri Lanka, near latitude-13.1N, Longitude-85.3E at 05.30a.m. today.

 

Under the influence of this system showery and windy condition will enhance over the Northern province from tomorrow evening.

Showers or thundershowers at times will occur over the Northern province. Very heavy falls above 150mm can be expected in the Jaffna peninsula. Heavy falls above 100mm can be expected in other areas in the Northern province.

Several spells of showers will occur in Anuradhapura and Puttalam districts. Mainly fair weather will prevail elsewhere.

Very strong winds (60-70) kmph, gusting up to 80kmph can be expected over Northern province particularly over the Jaffna peninsula from tomorrow evening.

HIMAWARI Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GAJA is currently located near 12.3 N 84.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). GAJA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pondicherry (11.9 N, 79.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 141800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 14 NOVEMBER 2018.

PART:-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM \u2018GAJA\u2019 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HRS IST OF 14 TH NOVEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.2 DEG E, ABOUT 430 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU) AND 510 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (TAMIL NADU). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND CROSS TAMIL NADU COAST BETWEEN PAMBAN AND CUDDALORE DURING 15 TH NOVEMBER EVENING AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 80-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH (.)

PART:-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E:
N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 62 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 55 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
4)E OF 70 DEG E NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E: NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 71 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: N-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE W OF 66
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 72 DEG E
AND S OF 13 DEG N (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 21 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA :FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA :10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 90 DEG E
:CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPRED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 5 DEG N: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.5-4.0 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS TO THE W OF 90
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 18 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 20 DEG N: 9.0-12.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 4.0-9.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS \u2013
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 14 DEG N ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS (.)
2)S OF 14 DEG N :CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 18 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 20 DEG N:4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
—————————————
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++

Sri Lanka

WEATHER FORECAST FOR SEA AREAS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING

NEXT 24 HOURS (Issued at 1200 noon on 14th November2018)

The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over the Central Bay of Bengal is now located approximately 660km away from Kankasanturai to the northeast of Sri Lanka, near latitude-13.1N, Longitude-85.3E at 05.30a.m. today. It is very likely to move west-southwestwards and intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours.

Under the influence of this system, winds can be strengthen and seas will be very rough over sea areas off coast extending from Batticaloa to Mannar via Trincomalee and Kankasanturai.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea areas off coast extending from Potuvil to Mannar via Trincomalee and Kankasanturai.

Showers or thundershowers will occur in the sea areas extending from Trincomalee to Puttalam via Kankasanturai. Heavy showers or thundershowers can be expected in the sea areas extending from Mullaitivu to Mannar via Kankasanturai.

Winds will be North-westerly to Westerly over the sea areas around the island and speed will be 30-40 kmph.

Sea areas to the North and East of the island will be very rough at times as the wind speed can increase up to (70-80) kmph at times. Sea areas off southern coast can be rough at times as the wind speed can increase up to (50-60) kmph.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Yemen/ Oman/ Arabian Sea: Tropical Deep Depression LUBAN 140900Z near 15.9N 51.7°E, moving WNW ~8.09kt/15kmph (RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 14 Oct 2018 1612Z (GMT/UTC)

Deep Depression LUBAN

Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen – IMD

Impacting Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea

INDIA

 

 

IMD

India Meteorological Department
Earth System Science Organisation
(Ministry of Earth Sciences


BULLETIN NO. : 61 (ARB 04/2018)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1630 HOURS IST DATED: 14.10.2018
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)
TO: CONTROL ROOM, NDM, MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS (FAX.NO. 23093750)
CONTROL ROOM NDMA (FAX.NO. 26701729)
CABINET SECRETARIAT (FAX.NO.23012284, 23018638)
PS TO HON’BLE MINISTER FOR S & T AND EARTH SCIENCES (FAX NO.23316745)
SECRETARY, MOES, (FAX NO. 24629777)
H.Q. (INTEGRATED DEFENCE STAFF AND CDS) (FAX NO. 23005137/23005147)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, DOORDARSHAN (23421101)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, AIR (23421105, 23421219)
PIB MOES (FAX NO. 23389042)
UNI (FAX NO. 23355841)
D.G. NATIONAL DISASTER RESPONSE FORCE (NDRF) (FAX NO. 24363261)
DIRECTOR, PUNCTUALITY, INDIAN RAILWAYS (FAX NO. 23388503)
CHIEF SECRETARY, TAMILNADU (FAX NO. 044-25672304)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KERALA (FAX NO. 0471-2327176)
ADMINISTRATOR, LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS (FAX NO. 04896-262184)
ADMINISTRATOR, UNION TERRITORY OF DAMAN & DIU AND DADRA NAGAR HAVELI (0260-2230775)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KARNATAKA (FAX NO. 080-22258913)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GOA (FAX NO. 0832-2415201)
CHIEF SECRETARY, MAHARASHTRA (FAX NO. 022- 22028594)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GUJARAT (FAX NO. 079-23250305)
Sub: Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen
The Cyclonic Storm ‘LUBAN’ over coastal Yemen moved further west-northwestwards during
past 06 hours with a speed of 15 kmph, weakened into a deep depression and lay centered at 1430
hrs IST of today, the 14th October 2018 over Yemen near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 51.7°E, about
40 km west-southwest of Al-Ghaidah (Yemen). It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and
weaken further into a depression during next 6 hours.
(i) Wind warning
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely over coastal areas of
east Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea during next
06 hours and it is very likely to decrease thereafter.
(ii) Sea condition
The sea condition will be rough to very rough over westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south
Oman and Yemen coasts and also over adjoining areas of Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours. It
will improve rapidly thereafter.
(iii) Fishermen Warning
The fishermen are advised not to venture into westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south Oman
and Yemen coasts and also into Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST 14th October, 2018.
(Naresh Kumar)
Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi
Copy to: CRS, Pune/ RSMC Guwahati/ ACWC Chennai/ Kolkata/ Mumbai/MC Goa/ Thiruvanathapuram/ Bengaluru/ CWC Ahmedabad.

SOURCE (.PDF File): http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

OMAN

Alert No. (6)
Tropical System in Arabian Sea
Category: Tropical Storm (Luban)
Issuing time: 11 pm
Date: 13th October 2018
Issuing No: 10
Due to potential of heavy rainfall accompanied by fresh winds and probability of flash floods over Governorate of Dhofar, The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices to take fully precautions and to avoid the low lying areas ,wadi`s and riding the sea during this period and to follow its latest weather bulletins.
Latest updates:
Center of tropical storm (Luban): lat. 15.0 N and Long 53.4 E
Distance from Salalah city: 240 km
Wind speed around the center: 45 to 55 Knots (83 – 102 Km/h)
The tropical storm (Luban) continues moving west towards Yemen’s coasts. Dhofar Governorate is likely continuing to be affected by heavy rain, thundershower at times on Sunday, and 14th of October 2018 with easterly to southeasterly fresh wind of 30-45 Knots (56-83 km/h) and gusting to gale wind over mountainous areas. The sea continues to be rough state with maximum wave of 6 to 8 meters.
The chances for indirect impact on the southern parts of al-Wusta Governorate continues with scattered rain and easterly to southeasterly moderate winds of 20 to 25 Knots (37-46 km/h) on Sunday , 14th of October 2018.
The alert will be updated every 12 hours.

download

 

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 05A (Luban) Warning #26 Final Warning
Issued at 14/0900Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 15.8N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 16.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF (WTIO31 PGTW 140900).//
NNNN

Other

DrR Yemen L

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 140900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 14 OCTOBER 2018.

PART:-I NIL
PART:-II

THE CYCLONIC STORM LUBAN OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH
AND CROSSED YEMEN COAST NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 52.2
DEG E ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH DURING 1100 – 1130 HRS IST OF
TODAY WITH AN ESTIMATED SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 70-80 KMPH
GUSTING TO 90 KMPH. IT LAY CENTERED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE
14TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER COASTAL YEMEN NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 52.1 DEG E, ABOUT 20 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH (YEMEN). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 6 HOURS.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N
SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 72 DEG E NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E : NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 60 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 60 DEG E 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E:
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 14 DEG N (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N : W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-W OF 55 DEG E :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: W OF 55 DEG E :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)E OF 88 DEG E TO S OF 6 DEG N
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 89 DEG E E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 69 DEG E S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE W OF 86 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 14 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 14 DEG N 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 15 DEG N SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 18 DEG N FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
II)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N 4-3 NM RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

++++

OMAN

OMAN MARINE FORECAST FOR COASTAL WATERS

ISSUED AT 0600 ON 14/10/2018

AND VALID FROM 14/0600 TO 14/1800 UTC

REGIONAL SYNOPSIS: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SULTANATE.

WEATHER: CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS

WITH CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING: ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL

STORM LUBAN ALONG THE ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS & VISIBILITY DETAILS FOLLOWS:

MUSANDAM WEST MUSANDAM EAST

WIND: VRB 05-12 KT WIND: SE/S 06-12 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT 1.25 M

SWELL: NE 0.25 M SWELL: S/SE 0.25 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

BAYAH-MUSCAT MUSCAT VICINITY

WIND: NE TO VRB 03-10 KT WIND: SE TO NE 03-12 KT

SEA: SLT 0.5 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: E 0.5 KT

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MUSCAT-SUR SUR-MASIRAH

WIND: NE TO VRB 02-08 KT WIND: NE TO SE 08-18 KT

SEA: SLT 0.75 M SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: S 1.5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN.

MASIRAH-MADRAKAH MADRAKAH-ALJAZIR

WIND: E/SE 10-20 KT WIND: E/SE 15-25 KT

SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M SEA: ROUGH 3.0 M

SWELL: S 1.5-2.5 M SWELL: SE 3.0 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.

ALJAZIR-SADAH SADAH-DHALKUT

WIND: E/SE 15-35 KT WIND: SE/E 25-40 KT

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M

SWELL: E 2-4 M SWELL: E/SE 3-5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS WITH CHANCE OF

HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING:

ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL STORM LUBAN ALONG THE

ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: AL-SHEDHANY. FORECASTER TELEPHONE: 24354661

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Bay Of Bengal: VSCS TITLI 10/0900Z near 17.2°N 85.5°E, moving N ~9.71kt 990hpa (RSMC New Delhi, India) – Published 10 Oct 2018 1155Z (GMT/UTC)

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TITLI

TITLI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24 FEET – JTWC

INDIA

RSMC NEW DELHI

ftrack

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 20
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) NATIONAL CENTRE
FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1030 UTC OF 10.10.2018 BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10.10.2018.
(A) VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, ‘LUBAN’ OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA:
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT
0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, NEAR LATITUDE 14.4°N AND
LONGITUDE 58.7°E, ABOUT 570 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316), 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS (41494) AND 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AL-GHAIDAH (41398). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS YEMEN & SOUTH
OMAN COASTS DURING NEXT 4 DAYS.
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER 2018, THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM IS T4.5. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AS BETWEEN LATITUDE 11.0°N & 18.5°N AND BETWEEN LONGITUDE
55.5°E & 61.0°E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93°C. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 984 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 75 KNOTS.
STATE OF SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
10.10.18/0900 14.4/58.7 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1200 14.5/58.6 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1800 14.6/58.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0000 14.7/58.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0600 14.8/57.8 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/1800 14.9/57.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/0600 15.0/56.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/1800 15.1/55.4 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13.10.18/0600 15.2/54.4 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13.10.18/1800 15.2/52.9 120-130 GUSTING TO 145 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
14.10.18/0600 15.2/51.1 110-120 GUSTING TO 130 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
14.10.18/1800 15.0/48.3 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
(B) VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘TITLI’ OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL:
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘TITLI’ OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 18 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY
CANTERED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2°N AND LONGITUDE 85.5°E, ABOUT 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR
(43049) AND 190 KM SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (43105). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
CROSS ODISHA & ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN GOPALPUR &
KALINGAPATNAM AROUND MORNING OF 11TH OCTOBER. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARDS, MOVE TOWARDS GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ACROSS ODISHA AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
AS PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER, INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS T 4.5. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.5°N & 21.0°N AND LONGITUDE 81.5°E & 90.0°E.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93°C. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
990 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH
AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
10.10.18/0900 17.2/85.5 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1200 17.4/85.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1800 18.0/85.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0000 18.6/84.9 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0600 19.3/84.8 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/1800 20.5/85.5 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/0600 21.8/87.0 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP DEPRESSION
12.10.18/1800 23.1/88.7 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 1 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE
THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 2 FROM 12TH OCTOBER AND WILL REMAIN IN SAME PHASE TILL 15TH .
AMPLITUDE WILL REMAIN MORE THAN 1 TILL 15TH OCTOBER. IT WILL BECOME LESS THAN 1 FROM 15TH
ONWARDS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION &
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (AS) DURING THE PERIOD 10TH-
15TH, IT WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) DURING 12TH-15TH.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER AS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
IS 29-310C OVER SOUTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL AS. IT IS AROUND 26-290C OVER WESTCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AS. THE SST IS DECREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS OMAN COAST. HOWEVER IT IS
INCREASING TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2
OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AS. IT IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 TO THE NORTH OF
17.00 N AND WEST OF 60.00E. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS AROUND 300 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VORTICITY ZONE IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOW ABOUT 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LOW (05-10 KT) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALSO ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND THERE IS COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION NEAR
OMAN AND YEMEN COASTS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 170 N. HENCE,AS THE
SYSTEM MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS IT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR,
WARMER SST & LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM LAND AREAS.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 30-310C OVER WESTCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BOB. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF SOUTH &
CENTRAL BOB AND BECOMING LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH BOB. LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY HAS NOW INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 250 X10-5 SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
VORTICITY ZONE IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 X 10-5 SEC-1 TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LOW (05-10 KT) TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE . THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION TO THE CORE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 180 N. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY INDICATING NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NCMRWF UNIFIED MODELS (NCUM),
NCMRWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (NEPS), IMD GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS), NCEP GFS,
SUGGEST GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARDS SOUTH ODISHA COAST AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
AND NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AFTER LANDFALL.
(SUNITHA DEVI)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM (LUBAN)
14.4N/58.7 at 0900 UTC
Very SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM (TITLI)
17.2N/85.5E at 0900 UTC
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2018 6:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm TITLI is currently located near 17.0 N 85.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). TITLI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TITLI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Puri (19.9 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06B (Titli) Warning #05
Issued at 10/0900Z

io0618

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 17.0N 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 85.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.2N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 19.4N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 20.1N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 21.0N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 85.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED
A 18-NM RAGGED EYE AS IT MAINTAINED EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS THAT WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION THAT IS ADJUSTED FOR
PARALLAX AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IN THE 100428Z
DIRECT ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM OBJECTIVE
AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.1 TO T5.0 AND REFLECTS
THE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 18 WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF INDIA NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RECEDES.
THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 85 KNOTS NEAR LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 101130

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1100 UTC 10 OCTOBER 2018.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, TITLI IS BEING MONITORED BY THE
COASTAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AT VISAKHAPATNAM, GOPALPUR AND
PARADIP. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM \U2018TITLI\U2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 18 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND
LAY CANTERED AT 1430 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 85.5
DEG E, ABOUT 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR (ODISHA) AND 190 KM
SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA
PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN GOPALPUR AND KALINGAPATNAM AROUND MORNING OF
11TH OCTOBER. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RE-CURVE
NORTHEASTWARDS, MOVE TOWARDS GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ACROSS ODISHA AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY (.)

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY
CENTERED AT 1430 HRS IST 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA, NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 58.7 DEG E, ABOUT 570 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN), 550 KM EASTNORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA
ISLANDS (YEMEN) AND 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AL-GHAIDAH (YEMEN). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS YEMEN AND SOUTH OMAN COASTS DURING NEXT 4 DAYS (.)

PART:-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N :
SW/W-LY 35/45 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO E OF 66 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N :
SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC SW-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE E OF 59 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E TO THE N OF 5 DEG N: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 60 DEG E TO N OF 6 DEG N 3.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 21 DEG N TO W OF 67 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N OF E OF 66 DEG E: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)N OF 21 DEG N: W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 65 DEG E TO S OF 19 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-6.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N OF E OF 66 DEG E: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N: W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 18 DEG N :OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 91 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 91 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 13 DEG N: OVER14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2.5-6.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 25/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
II)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: -6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.
  

India/ Arabian Sea: Tropical Cyclone OCKHI (03B) 041500Z position nr 15.7N 69.1E, moving NNE 06kt (JTWC) – Updated 04 Dec 2017 2020z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone OCKHI (03B)

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) Warning #12
Issued at 02/1500Z

io03171

03b_041200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 15.4N 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 68.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 16.8N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 18.7N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 20.9N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 22.5N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1367 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH 37 AND 91
GHZ SSMIS IMAGES FROM 041122Z, SHOWING THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
STRUGGLING TO KEEP TOGETHER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND DISPLACED NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WHICH IS ON CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM DEMS AND PGTW, COMBINED
WITH A 041052Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AS THE ADVANCING
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS A RESULT. A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS STEERING TC 03B ON A COURSE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND IN
COMBINATION WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WILL SEVERELY WEAKEN TC
03B WHILE OVER OPEN WATER. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH JUST AFTER TAU 36, WITH THE REMNANT LOW
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT AROUND TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH ONLY
MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION. OVERALL THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-fcst

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 4 Dec, 2017 12:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI is currently located near 15.4 N 68.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). OCKHI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OCKHI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Diu (20.7 N, 71.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201703b1

201703b_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

TC OCKHI WUND

(Above image: @wunderground)

OTHER

Cyclone Ockhi, which claimed 13 lives in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, has now moved beyond Lakshadweep, the weather department said bringing huge relief to the people of the rain-battered states.

However, many fishermen are still missing and warships have been deployed to comb the southeastern coast for fishing boats missing in wild seas.

Ockhi is now expected to travel north towards Mumbai and Gujarat in the next 48 hours, according to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Director S Sudevan in Thiruvananthapuram, though it is likely to lose intensity, reported news agency Reuters.

As many as 531 fishermen, stranded in the choppy waters off the Kerala and the Lakshadweep coasts due to Cyclone Ockhi, have been rescued, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said today. So far 393 people from Kerala have been rescued, Mr Vijayan said, as the state government announced a compensation of Rs. 10 lakh to the family of those who died in the storm.

Rescue operations are still on with Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard’s coordinated efforts in Thiruvananthapuram-Kollam coastal area. In Tamil Nadu, 60 fishermen are still missing and the Navy has been called in for their rescue
The Tamil Nadu government has also requested the centre to deploy helicopters of the Navy and the Coast Guard for the search and rescue efforts.” – NDTV (Reported by Sneha Mary Koshy, Edited by Soumyajit Majumder | Updated: December 02, 2017 20:26 IST)

FULL STORY

https://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/as-cyclone-ockhi-wanes-kanyakumari-remains-in-knee-deep-water-powerless-1782641

MARITIME/SHIPPING

3Dasiasec_ir1 imd 04

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 041800

WTIN01 DEMS 041800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 04/1800 UTC 04 DECEMBER 2017.

PART-I
THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OCKHI OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 19 KMPH
DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 2030 HRS IST OF 04 TH
DECEMBER, 2017 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE
16.1º N AND LONGITUDE 69.5º E, ABOUT 660 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SURAT AND 470 KM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY
AND CROSS SOUTH GUJARAT AND ADJOINING NORTH MAHARASHTRA
COASTS NEAR SURAT AS A DEEP DEPRESSION BY THE NIGHT OF
TOMORROW, THE 5 TH DECEMBER 2017. (.)
PART:-II
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND EQUATORIAL INDIAN
OCEAN WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEEP DEPRESSION DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
48 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU¬SOUTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS DURING NEXT 3 DAYS (.)
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF
TAMILNADU¬SRI LANKA COASTS EXTENDING UPTO 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL PERSISTS (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 75 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:N/NW-
LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 15/25 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
2)REST AREA: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 63 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 63 DEG E 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA :8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1-4 MTR(.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 55 DEG E:NE/N-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE
E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 66 DEG E:SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E:6-4 NM(.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:N/NW-LY 10/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 60/70
KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E AND S OF 22 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)E OF 65 DEG E:12-15 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 2-5 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 65 DEG E N/NE-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N:WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N:3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)E OF 65 DEG E 5-6 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 3-4 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT :3-4 MTR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-4-5 MTR(.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS BEC E/NE-LY 10/25
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 15 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N 3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA :10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:0.5-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)NE-LY 10/20 KTS BEC E/NE-LY 15/25
KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N :3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-4 MTR(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Andaman Islands/ Thailand/ Myanmar/ India: Tropical Depression 29W 071500Z nr 11.3N 99.9E, moving NNW 07 kt (JTWC) – Updated 07 Nov 2017 1925z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression TWENTYNINE 29W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT  071200Z IS 6 FEET. – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 29W (Twentynine) Warning #06
Issued at 07/1500Z

wp29171

29w_071200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071200Z — NEAR 11.2N 100.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 100.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 11.7N 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 12.4N 96.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 12.9N 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 13.4N 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 14.3N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 99.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTH OF BANGK0K, THAILAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z./
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated4

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 Nov, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression TWENTYNINE is currently located near 8.3 N 102.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 25kts (29 mph). TWENTYNINE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chumphon (10.5 N, 99.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Prachuap Khiri Khan (11.8 N, 99.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
    Ranong (10.0 N, 98.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201729w

201729w_0

NCHMF VIETNAM

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING
TC TRACKS
VN Track 29w 07
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Tuesday, November 07, 2017 10.9 100.1 TD 50 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Wednesday, November 08, 2017 12.7 96.3 TD 56 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:30 AM wednesday, November 07, 2017
Satellite Imagery

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17110721
METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1800 

FQIN01 DEMS 071800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 07 NOVEMBERBER 2017.

PART-I: NO STORM WARNING
PART:-II
THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL FROM COMORIN AREA TO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP AREA PERSISTS.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH KERALA COAST EXTENDING UPTO 3.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER MALAY PENINSULA AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA. WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 65 DEG E SW-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N(.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E :NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N :4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG E 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E :NNW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 5 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 5 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO 15 DEG N AND
W OF 70 DEG E:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 65 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 63 DEG E (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG N :NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N(.)
4)N OF 20 DEG N ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :4-3 NM(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E :6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N:ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N : NNE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 12 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 18 DEG N :6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE E
OF 82 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N:W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N:NNW-LY 05/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/20 KTS TO THE E OF 83 DEG E AND S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 85 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 85 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NNE-LY 10/25 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/15 TO THE S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1-4 MTR(.)
———————————————
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200 

WWCI50 BABJ 071200
1:31:11:01:00
BT
SECURITE=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC NOV.07 2017=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC NOV.07=
FCST VALID 1200UTC NOV.08=
WARNNING=
NIL=
SUMMARY=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER SOUTHWESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
TAIWAN STRAIT AND NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
AND BOHAI
STRAIT AND WESTERN PART OF YELLOW SEA AND WESTERN
PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND BEIBU GULF AND ANDAMAN
SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND SEA EAST OF
SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT
AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
SUNNY VIS GOOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD SUNNY VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD SUNNY VIS GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD OVERCAST BECMG SUNNY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG SUNNY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO ROUGH MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR
TO MOD=
TAIWAN STRAIT
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S BACK NE
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
E WINDS BACK NE 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
BEIBU GULF
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
E WINDS BACK NE 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE ROUGH LIGHT
RAIN VIS MOD TO VERY=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
SW WINDS VEER N 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
KOREA STRAIT
SW WINDS VEER NW 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG CLOUDY VIS MOD TO
GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO VERY=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
E WINDS BACK NE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT
RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH MOD RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO VERY=
SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA
NE WINDS BACK W 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S VEER SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER W WINDS
08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD
RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=
SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE
NW WINDS VEER NE 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD
RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
NE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD TO GOOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
E WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S VEER SE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD
MOD RAIN VIS POOR TO MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Myanmar/ Bangladesh/ India: Tropical Cyclone MORA 02B 29/0900Z position near 18.3N 91.5E, moving NNE 08 kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 May 20017 1145z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm/Tropical Cyclone Mora

….INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (Bangladesh Met)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 02B (Mora) Warning #07
Issued at 29/0900Z

WTIO31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 17.7N 91.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 91.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 20.0N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 22.8N 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.7N 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 91.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 290400Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE USING A 290316Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH INDICATES THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH ONLY
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE MORA JOGGED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT A GENERAL
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IN APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH IN AROUND 24 HOURS.
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL, WITH THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
NNNN

==========================================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘MORA’ ADVISORY NO. SIX ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 29TH MAY 2017 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH MAY 2017
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, 29TH MAY, 2017 OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.8ºN AND LONGITUDE 91.4ºE, ABOUT 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA(42807) AND 500 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG(41978). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN LONGITUDE 91.0ºE AND 92.0ºE NEAR CHITTAGONG AROUND 30TH MAY 2017 FORENOON.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST TRACK POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION
(LAT. ºN/ LONG. ºE)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
29.05.2017/0600
17.8/91.4
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
29.05.2017/1200
18.9/91.5
90-100 GUSTING TO 110
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
29.05.2017/1800
20.1/91.5
100-110 GUSTING TO 120
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/0000
21.3/91.6
110-120 GUSTING TO 130
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/0600
22.8/91.7
110-120 GUSTING TO 130
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/1800
25.4/92.2
55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
31.05.2017/0600
27.7/93.0
30-40 GUSTING TO 50
DEPRESSION
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE: THE STORM SURGE OF HEIGHT OF ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 METER ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE OVER LOW LYING AREAS OF BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN SITAKUND AND UTTAR JALDI AT THE
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-246524844 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com
TIME OF LANDFALL.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND (MSW) IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992 HPA. A BUOY NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6º N AND LONGITUDE 89.1ºE REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
(MSLP) OF 1003.1 HPA AND MSW 320/21 KNOTS. ANOTHER BUOY NEAR LATITUDE
20.3º N AND LONGITUDE 92.0ºE REPORTED MSLP OF 1000.0 HPA. THE MULTISATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS OF EASTERN SECTOR.
THE CONVECTION HAS FURTHER ORGANISED IN PAST 12 HOURS AND SHOWS
CURVED BAND PATTERN. BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.00N
TO 22.00N LONGITUDE 85.00E TO 97.00E. MINIMUM CTT IS ARROUND – 90.00C. THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS 30-31ºC. THE OCEAN
THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE
TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS AROUND 15-25 KTS, VORTICITY IS
AROUND 200 X10-5 S-1. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER OF 50 X10-5
S-1. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO OF THE ORDER OF 50 X10-5 S-1 AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS
ALONG 17.0ºN IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORHNORTHEASTWARDS
AS IT LAYS WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SO FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
THEREAFTER EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IN WESTERLY OVER
EASTERN INDIA. CURRENTLY SYSTEM IS BEING STARRED BY THE DEEP LAYER
WIND OF 200-850 HPA. THE MEAN DEEP LAYER WIND BETWEEN 200-850 HPA IS
170DEGREE/7 KNOTS. THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATE CONTINUOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST
SECTOR. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMIS AT 0001 UTC OF 29TH
INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTRE FROM
NORTHEAST.
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
MORE THAN 1. IT WOULD CONTINUE IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1
DURING NEXT 3 DAYS. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT DURING
NEXT 48 HRS.
(NARESH KUMAR)
SCIENTIST ‘D’
RSMC, NEW DELHI
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-246524844 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com

Bangladesh Met Logo

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 12 (TWELVE), Date: 29.05.2017 (Local Times)
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 990 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS FURTHER OVER THE SAME AREA, INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (NEAR LAT 18.8°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 385 KMS SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 305 KMS SOUTH OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 450 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONGLA PORT AND 370 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS CHITTAGONG – COX’S BAZAR COAST BY MORNING OF 30 MAY 2017.
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ GUSTY/SQUALLY WIND WITH RAIN/ THUNDER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL DISTRICTS AND MARITIME PORTS OF BANGLADESH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 89 KPH RISING TO 117 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE SYSTEM.
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER TEN (R) TEN.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER FIVE BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 89-117 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

BD map

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 29 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MORA is currently located near 17.7 N 91.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). MORA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Bangladesh
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    India
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Cox’s Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bhutan
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Shillong (25.6 N, 91.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Dispur (26.1 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Imphal (24.8 N, 93.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Other

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Deadly Cyclone Mora hits Bangladesh with high winds and rain – BBC News

(30 May 2017 1105 UTC)

Cyclone Mora has hit the south-eastern coast of Bangladesh, killing at least five people.

Most of them were killed by falling trees in the districts of Cox’s Bazar and Rangamati, officials told the BBC.

Hundreds of houses were fully or partly damaged, the officials said. Significant damage is reported in refugee camps housing Rohingya Muslims from neighbouring Myanmar.

The authorities have moved hundreds of thousands of people to shelters.

Cyclone Mora made landfall at 06:00 local time (00:00 GMT) between the fishing port of Cox’s Bazar and the city of Chittagong, with winds of up to 117 km/h (73mph), the country’s meteorological department said.

Low-lying areas of Cox’s Bazar, Chittagong and many other coastal districts were “likely to be inundated” by a storm surge of 1.2m-1.5m (4-5ft) above normal levels, the department had warned.

People have been evacuated to shelters, schools and government offices.

Fishing boats and trawlers have been advised to remain in shelters. Flights in the area have been cancelled.

About 20,000 houses in refugee camps for Rohingya were damaged, community leader Abdus Salam told AFP news agency.

“In some places, almost every shanty home made of tin, bamboo and plastic has been flattened,” Mr Salam added. “Some people were injured, but no-one is dead.”

Large camps have been set up in Cox’s Bazar for hundreds of thousands of Rohingya who have fled violence in Myanmar.

A clear picture is still not available due to poor communication with many affected areas, Bangladeshi officials told the BBC.

A number of houses were also damaged in western Myanmar.

Cyclone Mora will move northwards past Chittagong, weakening as it moves further inland and downgrading from a Category One hurricane to a tropical storm, tracking website Tropical Storm Risk forecasts.

Parts of eastern India are expected to be affected later on.

The Bay of Bengal is prone to storms and Bangladesh is often hit by severe weather during the monsoon season, from the middle to the end of the year.

Last year, Cyclone Roanu hit coastal Bangladesh, leaving at least 24 people dead.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 291118
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONIC STORM “MORA” OVER BAY OF BENGAL
DATE AND TIME BASED UPON WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:
PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 290600 UTC
PRESENT POSITION: 17.8 0N/91.40 E
POSITION ACCURATE TO 40 KM
PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 010/07 KT
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 33 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORECASTS:
06 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z 18.9°N /91.50 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z 20.1°N /91.50 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

18 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z 21.3°N /91.60 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z 22.8°N /91.70 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z 25.4°N /92.20 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z 27.7°N /93.00 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 15KT, GUSTS 25 KT

Bangladesh Met

Marine Warning
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 12 (TWELVE), Date: 29.05.2017
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 990 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS FURTHER OVER THE SAME AREA, INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (NEAR LAT 18.8°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 385 KMS SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 305 KMS SOUTH OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 450 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONGLA PORT AND 370 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS CHITTAGONG – COX’S BAZAR COAST BY MORNING OF 30 MAY 2017.
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ GUSTY/SQUALLY WIND WITH RAIN/ THUNDER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL DISTRICTS AND MARITIME PORTS OF BANGLADESH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 89 KPH RISING TO 117 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE SYSTEM.
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER TEN (R) TEN.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER FIVE BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 89-117 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Myanmar/ Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Depression 92B (Future CS Maarutha)150300Z 12.5N 88.3E, moving NNE 10.8kt (RSMC New Delhi)- Published 15 Apr 2017 1240z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 92B

(Future Cyclonic Storm Maarutha)

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15-04-2017


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 20 KMPH DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 12.5º N AND LONGITUDE 88.3 ºE, ABOUT 500 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 950 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE (48062) AND SANDWAY (48080) BY FORENOON OF 17TH.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 1.5. THE CONVECTION HAS ORGANISED DURING PAST 12 HRS AND SHOWS CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH WELL DEFINED WRAPPING FROM EASTERN SECTOR. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER SOUTH AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 9.0 DEGREE NORTH TO 17.0 DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.5 DEGREE EAST TO 95.0 DEGREE EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 70 DEGREE CELCIUS. A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 11.4/91.9 REPORTED MSLP OF 1003.8 HPA AND WIND OF 1700/14 KTS. AVAILABLE SHIP AND BUOY DATA AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO BE ABOUT 1001 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. MULTI-SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS 30-320C. IT DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 28-290C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. IT ALSO DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 60-80 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND IS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS (HIGH) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 150 x 10-6 S-1 AND CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 x 10-5 S-1 .THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO THE SOUHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 x 10-5 S-1 THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 100N. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 7 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 8 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AMPLITUDE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY INDICATE INCURSION OF WARM MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. HENCE CONSIDERING ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, WHILE OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, VORTICITY AND TPW ARE FAVOURABLE, MJO AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE UNFAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM MAY REACH UPTO THE INTENSITY OF DEEP DEPRESSION/CYCLONIC STORM.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION/ CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS.
(M.MOHAPATRA)
HEAD-RSMC, NEW DELHI

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

ABIO10 PGTW 150200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/150200Z-151800ZAPR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150051ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 87.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 600
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142121Z AMSU-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND IS NOW CIRCULAR IN SHAPE WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY
IN THE NORTHEAST WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) OFFSET BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
AND DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTIO21 PGTW 150100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

Other Sources

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 15 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ONE is currently located near 14.3 N 90.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). ONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Sandoway (18.5 N, 94.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Myanaung (18.3 N, 95.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Bassein (16.7 N, 94.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Henzada (17.6 N, 95.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

DoctorAdvice4u (@RoshinRowjee) | Twitter

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151115
SPECIAL GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 0600 HOURS FROM 0600 UTC 15 APRIL 2017.

PARTI:-NO STORM WARNING:-

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 28 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 13.2
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 89.0 DEG E, ABOUT 420 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA
BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 840 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE
AND SANDWAY (MYANMAR) BY FORENOON OF 17TH APRIL.

PART:-II:
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
———————— ——————-
ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 56 DEG E : S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 56 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 56 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N; NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15
KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 58 DEG E TO 74 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N: :SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 60 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND S OF 7 DEG N: :6-4 NM(.)
2)REST AREA:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:
1) E OF 75 DEG E 0.5-2 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-1 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 58 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
E/SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 58 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 58 DEG E TO 63 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 63 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
5)E OF 65 DEG E TO 75 DEG E :NW/W-LYNW/W-LY 05/15 KTS(.)
6)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
7)E OF 75 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: W-LY 05/15 KTS
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N :8-6 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT
1)W OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-1 MTR(.)
2)E OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-3 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 62 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 0.5-2 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
1)W OF 65 DEG E AND S OF 20 DEG N:ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)
2)N OF 20 DEG N: S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 65 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E
AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 85 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 85 DEG E : :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 85 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :4-3 NM(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3-4 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E : 3-2 NM
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:3-4 NM
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India: At least 16 killed, 50+ critically injured in truck crash in Meghalaya’s West Khasi Hills district – Published 26 Feb 2017 1617z (GMT/UTC)

meghalayameghalayaaccident

Meghalaya Accident (Image credit: http://viveremilano.biz)

At least 16 people were killed on Sunday when a truck they were in rammed into the concrete barricade of a road in Meghalaya’s West Khasi Hills district, police said. More than 50 people were critically injured in the accident in Jdohkroh village, 11 km from Nongstoin, the district headquarters of West Khasi Hills. Police said the speeding truck was carrying over 60 people. Although earlier police estimated that over 30 people were traveling in the truck, later it was found that many fell into the deep gorge. The exact number of people traveling is yet to be ascertained. Sylvester Nongtnger, police chief of West Khasi Hills said all the victims were going towards Nonglang village to attend the synod of Presbyterian Church. “Twelve people died on the spot and four succumbed to their injuries in hospital,” Mr Nongtnger told IANS. The dead included nine women and a 13-year-old girl. The injured, including the driver and helper of the truck, have been rushed to nearby hospitals and to the Shillong Civil Hospital, the police said. Quoting witnesses, the police officer said the accident occurred due to reckless driving. “Nonetheless, we are investigating the cause of the accident.”

RSOE February 26 2017 12:08 PM (UTC).

Bangladesh/India/Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone Roanu (01B) 20/2100Z position nr 20.3N 88.3E, moving NE at 11 knots (JTWC) – Updated 20 May 2016 2155Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Roanu (01B)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET (JTWC)

ni201601_5day 20

5 Day Forecast (Image: @wunderground)

ni201601_sat_anim 20

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

IMD 2232
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE

TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN
FROM:
RSMC

TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO:
STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WAR
NING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
ST
ORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT
(THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC

TROPI
CAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘ROANU’ ADVISORY NO.
TWELVE
ISSUED AT
18
00 UTC OF
20
TH
MAY 2016
BASED ON
1
5
00 UTC CHARTS OF
20
TH
MAY 2016.
THE
CYCLONIC STORM

ROANU

OVER
WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING NORTHWEST
BAY OF
BENGAL
MOVED EAST

NORTHEASTWARDS
A
T A SPEED OF 25 KMPH DURING PAST THREE
HOURS AND
LAY CENTRED AT
1500 UTC
OF
20
TH
MAY, 2016
OVER NORTHWEST
BAY OF
BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE
20.0
º N AND LONGITUDE
87.0
ºE
,
65 KM EAST OF PARADIP
(ODISHA),SOUTHEAST AND 560 KM WEST

SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG (BANGLADESH
)
.
THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE
EAST

N
ORTH
EAST
WARDS
SKIRTING ODISHA

WEST BENGAL
COAST
AND
CROSS SOUTH BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN KHEPUPARA AND COX’S BAZAR
,
CLOSE TO CHITTAGONG IN THE EVENING OF
21
ST
MAY, A
S
A
CYCLONIC STORM
.
THE CON
V
ECTION SHOWS BAND PATTER
N. IT ALSO EXHIBITS LARGE SCALE DIURNAL
VARIATION DURING PAST TWO DAY
S
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUDS AND THE CURVED BANDS INTENSITY AND SIZE.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS T
2.
5
.
ASSOCIATED
BRO
KEN LOW
AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH
EMBEDDED INTENS
E TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY
OVER
NORTH COASTAL ODISHA,
NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING
NORTHEAST
BAY
BETWEEN
NORTH OF
LATITUDE
1
5
.
5
0
NORTH
AND
WEST OF
LONGITUDE
9
1
.0
0
E
.
THE
LOWEST CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS A
BOUT

9
3
0
C.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT
40
KNOTS GUSTING TO
50
KNOTS AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS
HIGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
99
2
HPA.
FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/time(
UTC
)
Position
(lat.
°N/ long. °
E)
Maximum sustained
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category of cyclonic
Disturbance
20

05

2016/
1500
20.0
/
87.0
70

80
gusting to
90
Cyclonic Storm
20

05

2016/
1800
20.5
/8
8.1
80

90
gusting to
100
Cyclonic Storm
2
1

05

2016/
0000
21.3
/8
9.6
80

90
gusting to
100
Cyclonic Storm
2
1

05

2016/
0600
22.1
/
91.0
80

90
gusting to
100
Cyclonic Storm
21

05

2016/
1200
2
2.9
/9
2.6
6
0

70
gusting to
8
0
Cyclonic Storm
2
2

05

2016/
0000
2
4.2
/
9
4.7
40

50
gusting to
60
Depression
Phone
:
(91) 11

24652484 FAX: (91) 11

24623220
,
(91) 1
1

246
43128,
e

mail:cwdhq2008@gmail.com
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE FOR BANGLADESH COAST.
STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.0 TO
2
METRE IS VERY LIKELY NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTRE AT THE
TIME OF LANDFALL
.
REMARKS:
THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 3
0

31
̊C, OCEAN THERMAL ENERG
Y
IS ABOUT
75

100
KJ/CM
2
, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY DURING PAST SIX HOURS
AND IS ABOUT 2
0
X
10

5
SECOND

1
,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS
ALSO DECREASED AND IS
ABOUT
1
0
X10

5
SECOND

1
, THE LOW LEVE
L RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT
200
X10

6
SECOND

1
,
AROUND SYSTEM CENTER.
VERT
I
CAL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE
LOW
(
5

1
0
KNOTS)
AND IS FAVOURABLE
.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE LIES ALONG
LATITUDE
1
6.0
0
̊N.
THOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SYSTEM TO THE COAST PROVIDES LAND SURFACE INTERECTION OPPOSING THE
INTENSIFICATION FURTHER
AS THE CYCLONIC S
TORM
MOVES NORTH EASTWARDS IT WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWER OCE
N THERMAL ENERGY AND MORE MID

LATITUDE INFLUENCE
UNFAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THUS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE CYCLONIC
STORM INTENSITY IN THIS MARGINALLY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID
LATITUD
E
WESTERLIES
IN MID & UP
P
ER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS
THE DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND IS
FAVOURING THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SPEED OF 25

30
KMPH DURING PAST 12 HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TRACK
FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE N
EXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT
21
0
0
UTC OF
20
MAY
2016
.
(
RANJEET SINGH
)
SCIENTIST

F
’ ’

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 May, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ROANU is currently located near 19.8 N 87.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). ROANU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bangladesh
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Cox’s Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently
    Imphal (24.8 N, 93.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

tsr 20

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

JTWC Tropical Warnings

Current Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean* Tropical Systems

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Roanu) Warning #11
Issued at 20/2100Z

io0116 20 

WTIO31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201800Z — NEAR 19.8N 87.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 045 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 87.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 21.6N 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 23.7N 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 25.7N 96.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 88.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201549Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS), A RECENT SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS,
AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATING SLIGHTLY WEAKER CORE
WINDS. TC 01B CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW AND
BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ALOFT. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH FOLLOWING A
SLIGHT POLEWARD JOG IN THE BEST TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND A
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW UNDER THE STR, WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-20
KNOTS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 12, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS SHEAR INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND LAND INTERACTION. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN APPROXIMATELY 12-18 HRS FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN


* Includes Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 201800
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 20 MAY 2016
——————————————————–
PART I:-STORM WARNING

PART II
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘ROANU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NW BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED
EASTNORTHEASTWARDS AND LIES CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY 20TH MAY
,2016
OVER NW BAY OF BANGAL NEAR LAT.19.7 DEG N AND LONG. 86.5 DEG E,
ABOUT 70 KM SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF PARADIP (ODISHA),70 KMS SE OF PURI AND
630 KMS WSW OF
CHITTAGONG (BANGLADESH)(.)THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE NE-WARDS
SKIRTING ODISHA WEST BANGAL
COST AND CROSS SOUTH BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN CHEPUPARA AND COX’S
BAZAR , CLOSE TO
CHITTAGONG IN THE EVENING OF 21ST MAY 2016 AS A CYCLONIC STORM (.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)
—————————– ——————-
A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:1)N-OF 05 DEG N :WNW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)S-OF 05 DEG N :-WNW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/WSW-LY TO THE E OF
75 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.) REST AREA 8-6 NM
(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:1)N-OF 05 DEG N :WNW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)S-OF 05 DEG N :-WNW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/WSW-LY TO THE E OF
75 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.) REST AREA 8-6 NM
(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M (.)
A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:WSW/W-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 2-3 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:WSW/W-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE E-OF 60 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 2-3 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIRLYWIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST
AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)0.5-1 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 95 DEG E:SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIRLYWIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST
AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 4-3 NM TO THE E-OF 90 DEG E(.)REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)0.5-1 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 18 DEG N:S/SE-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N:SSW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2) 4-5 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 18 DEG N:S/SE-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N:SSW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2) 4-5 M(.)
—————————————————-
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Bangladesh: Depression over NE Bay of Bengal & coast areas of Bangladesh & W Bengal may become Deep Depression in 24 hrs (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 270715 1035z (GMT/UTC)

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre - Tropical Cyclones, India Meteorological Department - Government of IndiaRegional Specialized Meteorological Centre
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE

TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 27072015

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 27072015
BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 27 July, 2015
THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING COASTAL AREAS OF
BANGLADESH & WEST BENGAL
REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 15HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT
0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 27 JULY 2015 NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 90.2 EAST, CLOSE TO WEST OF KHEPUPARA
(41960). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR SOME MORE TIME AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION

DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CI. 1.5  PATTERN IS SHEAR PATTERN
.
DISTANCE BETWEEN CENTRE AND CLOUD MASS IS NEARLY 100 KMS.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVEC
TION OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL
.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 27TH JULY 2015.
(DUTY OFFICER)
RSMC, NEW DELHI

mapimage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abiosair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 270000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/270000Z-271800ZJUL2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.3N 90.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 69 NM WEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BANGLADESH COASTLINE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE BAY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A 261533Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED 30 KNOT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE;
HOWEVER, FUTHER ORGANIZATION IS HAMPERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) IN ADDITION TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE INTO INDIA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IF THE DISTURBANCE WERE TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH,
THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY AND GOOD OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A MEDIUM//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

FQIN01 DEMS 270900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 27 JULY 2015
—————————————————-
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING

PART II:-THE DEPRESSION OVER NE-BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJ.
COASTAL AREAS OF BAGLA DESH AND WEST BENGAL MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST -WARDS AND LAY CENTERED NEAR LAT 22.0 DEG N/
LONG 90.2 DEG E(.)SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN PRACTICALY STATIONRY
FOR SOME MORE TIMES AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS.(.)

AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AT MSL RUNS FROM KARNATAKA COAST TO
KERALA COAST PERSISTS(.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
—————————————————
A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 70 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E:WSW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)2-3 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 70 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E:WSW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)2-3 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-SSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-SSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

METAREA VIII_N

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

North Arabian Sea/ Pakistan/ Oman/ Iran/ India: Tropical Cyclone One: 070900Z POSITION nr 15.8N 68.4E, moving N at 5 knots (JTWC) – Published 070615 1200Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone One (01A)

Pakistan/ Oman/ Iran/ India be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 8 (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED  07.06.2015
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA)
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

sector-ir

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 01A (One) Warning #01
Issued at 07/0900Z

io0115

WTIO31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070600Z — NEAR 15.5N 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 68.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 16.8N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 18.2N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 19.7N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 21.0N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 22.5N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 23.6N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 24.3N 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH OF
KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

NOT AVAILABLE

METAREA IX

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Oman /Pakistan /India /Arabian Sea: Tropical Cyclone NILOFAR 04A 271500Z near 15.2N 62.2E, moving WNW at 2 knots (JTWC) – Updated 271014 1502z (UTC/GMT)

Tropical Cyclone Four (04A)/ VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM ‘NILOFAR’

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

https://i2.wp.com/www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/graphics/tcacgraphic.png

More here:

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en#

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0414.gif

WTIO31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (NILOFAR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (NILOFAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 15.0N 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 62.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 15.7N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 16.7N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 17.6N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 18.7N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 20.5N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 22.7N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 24.9N 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (NILOFAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED WHILE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
STEADY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS EYE FEATURE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75
KNOTS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT NOW
RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 04A HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MODIFYING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CREST
THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36 AND THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS WESTERN
INDIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DRY AIR INTRUSION COULD
HAMPER THESE POSITIVE EFFECTS. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS INDUCED
BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH
WILL BE ADDED BY LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, SOME OF THE MODELS (NAMELY COAMPS-TC AND
EGRR) HAVE BECOME ERRATIC AFTERWARDS AS THE TRACKERS HAVE STARTED TO
LOSE VORTEX IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION OF
STRONGER VWS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH COULD INDUCE A
FASTER THAN EXPECTED WEAKENING. THIS ERRATIC TRACK DOES APPEAR
ERRONEOUS AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. DESPITE THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
FASTER THAN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TO OFFSET THESE ERRATIC TRACKS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA9 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1059

WWPK20 OPKC 271059 CCA
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR MET AREA IX
VALID FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING FROM 0700UTC DATED 27-10-2014
BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
PART -I THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘NILOFAR’ OVER CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN
SEA HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED INTO SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM, MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0300 UTC OF 27TH OCTOBER, 2014 NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 N AND LONGITUDE 62.00 E, ABOUT 1230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KARACHI AND 880 KM EAST-
SOUTHEASTOF SALALAH. IT WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS AND WOULD MOVE INITIALLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS
AND CROSS NORTH GUJRAT AND ADJOINING PAKISTAN COAST BY 31ST OCTOBER.
PART – II: THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY
INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS. SEA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL.
PART -III: FORECASTS:

SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA
I. WIND SE/SW’LY 10-15KTS GUSTING 20KTS NORTH OF 24ºN.
E/NE’LY 17-21KTS GUSTING 27KTS SOUTH OF 24ºN.
II. WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM RAIN
IN SOUTHERN SECTOR
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA MODERATE/ROUGH.
SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMAN
I. WIND SE/NE’LY 10-15KTS GUSTING 20KTS NORTH OF 24oN.
NE’LY 21-27 GUSTING 33 KTS SOUTH OF 24ºN
II. WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM
RAIN IN SOUTHERN SECTOR
III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA MODERATE/ ROUGH OCCASSIONALY VERY ROUGH
IN SOUTHERN SECTOR.
SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE,
12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE)
I. WIND SE’LY 17-21KTS GUSTING 27KTS NORTH OF 18ºN AND EAST OF 65°E.
SE/NE‘LY 28-33 KTS GUSTING 47 KTS NORTH OF 18ºN AND WEST OF 65ºE.
SW/SE’LY 63-77 KTS GUSTING 93 KTS SOUTH OF 18ºN AND EAST OF 63°E.
CYCLONIC 63-77 KTS GUSTING 93 KTS SOUTH OF 18ºN AND WEST OF 63°E
II. WEATHER WIDE SPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSHOWER.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN SHOWERS.
IV. STATE OF SEA VERY HIGH/PHENOMENAL.
SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN
I. WIND NE/SE’LY BECMG NW’LY 10-15 KTS WEST OF 50°E,
NW’LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20 KTS EAST OF 50°E.
II. WEATHER FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN HAZE.
IV. STATE OF SEA SLIGHT/MODERATE.

Metarea IX

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone 03B HUDHUD 121500Z nr 18.4N 82.5E, moving NW at 8 knots (JTWC) – Updated 121014 1521z (UTC)

 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM Hudhud

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0314.gif

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03B_121130sams.jpg

WTIO31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 18.0N 82.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 82.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 19.6N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 21.7N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 24.3N 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
TC 03B MADE LANDFALL NEAR VISAKHAPATNAM AT ABOUT 12/07Z AND HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK INLAND WHILE WEAKENING. A 121108Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS. TC
03B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RE-CURVING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2014 6:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm HUDHUD (03B) currently located near 17.5 N 83.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

News Reports

At least three people were killed Sunday when Cyclone Hudhud slammed into India’s east coast packing winds of almost 200 kilometres (125 miles) per hour, ripping down power cables and forcing roads and railways to shut.

Around 370,000 people living along the eastern coastline were evacuated before the storm hit around 11.30 am (0600 GMT) on Sunday morning, as authorities tried to avoid mass casualties. “We have had three deaths since this morning,” said Natrajan Prakasam, a Disaster Management Commission official in the worst-hit state of Andhra Pradesh in southeast India. Two people were crushed by falling trees, while the third was killed when a wall collapsed in heavy rains, he told AFP. India placed its navy and coastguard on high alert ahead of the storm and advised residents to stay indoors as the cyclone passed by, warning of large waves known as storm surges. Some flights were cancelled while bus and train services in the worst affected areas were suspended. The head of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) said the main highway in the port city of Visakhapatnam, which was in the eye of the storm as it hit, was strewn with fallen trees and electricity pylons. “The two big challenges facing the NDRF team are clearing roads and evacuation and rescue work,” he added. India’s eastern coast and neighbouring Bangladesh are routinely hit by bad storms between April and November that cause deaths and widespread property damage. The region is populated by fishermen and small-scale farmers, many of whom live in flimsy huts with thatched roofs or shanties.

Sunday, 12 October, 2014 at 09:50 UTC RSOE

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

WTIN01 DEMS 120900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 12 OCTOBER 2014
—————————————————-
PART I:-STORM WARNING
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘HUDHUD’ OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTNORTHWESTWARDS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HRS. IST OF YESTERDAY,THE 11TH OCTOBER
2014 NEAR LATITUDE 16.2ON AND LONGITUDE 84.8OE
ABOUT 230 KMS SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM AND 340 KMS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR(.)IT THEN MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
AND LIES CENTERED AT 0830 HRS IST OF TODAY,THE 12TH
OCTOBER 2014,NEAR LATITUDE 17.4ON AND LONGITUDE 83.8OE
ABOUT 60 KMS EASTSOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM(.)
THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST CLOSE TO VISHAKHAPATNAM
WITHIN A FEW HOURS(.)
PART II:-WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:-SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:-NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY
TO THE E OF 75 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:-NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY
TO THE E OF 68 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)0.5-1 M(.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG.E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE S OF 05 DEG N AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE S OF 05 DEG N AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 90 DEG E:S/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 90 DEG E:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)2-3 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N AND W OF 85 DEG E:-SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)REST AREA VARIABLE(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)LESS THAN 0.5 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
S-LY 20/25 KTS BEC SE-LY TO THE N OF 16 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 85 DEG E:S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)E OF 85 DEG E:SSE-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 85 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)2-3 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

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India/ Pakistan: Heavy monsoon rains leave at least 82 dead in Punjab, Kashmir, KPK. More rain forecast – Published 050914 1010z (UTC)

At least forty (G: 82 over Punjab and Azad Kashmir) people died in separate incidents of roof collapse, land sliding and electrocution followed by heavy downpour in Punjab on Thursday.

Heavy rains lashed Lahore where six members of a family lost their lives in a roof collapse, including an infant. In another incident of roof collapse in Government Officers Residence (GOR) Colony, two people died. Separately, a man died after getting electric shocks in Johar Town.

Several deaths were also reported from Sialkot, Faisalabad and Gujranwala. According to rescue sources, a woman and two children died when a house’s wall collapsed on them in Sialkot. Two more deaths were also reported from Faisalabad, while in Monki area of Gujranwala, a child died and two other persons were injured in a roof collapse.

The government of Punjab has declared emergency in the rain-hit areas and launched full-scale rescue operations. Sialkot DCO Nadeem Sarwar said on Thursday that a high wave of flood will pass through the River Chenab midnight Thursday. He said residents of villages adjoining the river had already been evacuated and shifted to safer places.

Talking to APP, he said as many as 33 relief centres had been established in the Sialkot District in addition to medical centres with sufficient medicines.

The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has warned all the authorities concerned to take necessary precautionary measures during the expected rains between Thursday and Friday. According to the officials of PDMA thunderstorm with isolated heavy rain at a few places is expected in Hazara, Malakand, Peshawar, Mardan and Kohat division. There is a chance of flash flooding in local nullahs and streams.

At least forty people, including women and children, died and 30 sustained injuries in different incidents of roof collapses in various districts of Punjab during current torrential rains. According to a Rescue 1122 spokesman around 13 people, including three women, succumbed to injuries when roofs of different homes caved in different localities of the provincial capital. As per reports, the roof of a double storeyed building caved in near Chah Miran area; Dhobi Ghaat, which resulted in the instant death of six people, including three women.
Similarly, the roof of a house collapsed in GOR-2. Resultantly, two people got stuck under the debris. The rescue service responded to the incident and extricated the victims’ dead bodies. A man died after he suffered an electric shock in Johar Town and another man also died due to a roof collapse. According to reports, three people died when the roof of a house caved in at Thokar Niaz Baig, whereas one man died in a house near Samanabad Roundabout.

Meanwhile, one person died and six sustained multiple injuries in two incidents of roof collapses in Faisalabad; four died and two were injured in Gujranwala due to a roof collapse. Another five people died and two sustained multiple injuries due after receiving electric shock in Sialkot district. Moreover, one person died and two were injured in Chundowal village, whereas one died and 10 sustained multiple injuries in roof collapses in Okara and Kasur.

The rescuers, who responded to the incidents in Punjab, ascertained that mostly dilapidated buildings with poor bases were to blame for the roof collapses. Expressing his concerns, Punjab Rescue DG Dr Rizwan Naseer advised citizens to remove debris and extra weight from the rooftops of the houses and strengthen their bases by putting sand and mud around the walls to avoid collapses. He said the citizens should remove electric wires or cover them properly to avoid electric shocks in monsoon season.

The overnight downpour submerged low-lying areas of Lahore, including Wasanpura, Garhi Shahu, Garden Town, Ferozepur Road, Mall Road, Gulberg and Iqbal Town. Rain emergency has been declared in the province and local administration has been put on high alert to kick off rescue efforts and prevent rain-related casualties.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned that all rivers in Punjab would likely be in “very high” to “exceptionally high” flood from Sept 5 to 7 because of expected intensification of the current spell of fairly widespread rains.

Friday, 05 September, 2014 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

“LAHORE/RAWALPINDI:

Death toll from heavy monsoon rains mounted to 82 as torrential downpour continued to batter Punjab and Azad Kashmir, SAMAA reported Friday.

In Punjab, reports said, the death from rain-related incidents reached 60.

Most of the deaths were caused by roof collapses in buildings as rains crippled civic life in the city.

Hundreds of acres of agriculture land inundated in Punjab as dozens of villages were cut off due to rainwater.

In Azad Kashmir, at least 18 people were reported killed. Four people were killed in Haripur district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

More Rain Likely

Authorities warned that more intense rainfall and flash floods could cause flooding in major rivers.

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast more rain during next 12 hours in Punjab, Azad Kashmir and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, adding that the rain may continue till Sunday.

PMD said if the rains continued for two days, the high flooding in rivers may inundate vast swatches of land in Punjab.

National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has kicked off rescue and relief operations.

High Flood

Due to flash flooding in Kashmir region, the rivers Jhelum and Neelum are close to overflowing in some places, officials said.

Reports said a high flood level is being witnessed in River Chenab at Marala Headworks.

Authorities in Sialkot and Narowal areas have issued flood warnings in various areas of Punjab and evacuated local people from villages.

Pak Army has also been called in to assist local administration.

Pakistan has suffered deadly monsoon floods for at least the last four years — in 2013, 178 people were killed and around 1.5 million affected by flooding around the country.

The floods of 2010 were the worst in Pakistan’s history, with 1,800 people killed and 21 million affected in what became a major humanitarian crisis. SAMAA/AFP” – http://www.samaa.tv

J-K: Bus washed away by floods, 50 feared dead

HT Correspondents, Hindustan Times Jammu/Srinagar, September 04, 2014

First Published: 15:02 IST(4/9/2014) | Last Updated: 11:02 IST(5/9/2014)

“At least fifty people were feared dead on Thursday after a bus carrying a wedding party was washed away by flash floods inJammu and Kashmirs Rajouri district, even as 20 other flood-related deaths were reported from other parts of the state.

Three days of heavy rain left rivers in the state flowing above the danger mark and triggered landslides in several places, forcing key highway stretches to close for traffic. More rainfall is likely for at least the next two days, the meteorological department warned.

On Thursday afternoon, the bus — filled to its capacity of 52, including the bride and groom was on its way to Lam, around 120 km from Jammu city, when it was hit by surging waters of the Gambhir river. Only three people survived the accident.

Rescue operations were severely hampered by heavy rainfall, said Rajouri senior superintendent of police Mubassir Latifi.

The state capital of Srinagar also braced for major floods with the Jhelum, Kashmirs main river, flowing more than seven feet above the danger mark.

Vast swathes of Srinagar remain inundated, with water levels just a few feet shy of breaching Lal Chowk, the citys commercial hub.

With water level rising by the hour, locals complained of administrative apathy. Our colony has been under water since 2am Thursday but no help arrived till morning. Only two boats, with a capacity of four, were made available by the administration, even though hundreds of people are stranded, said Mushtaq Ali, a resident of Hamdania colony in Srinagars Bemina area.

Torrential rainfall forced the Vaishno Devi pilgrimage to be suspended on Thursday after three people were injured in landslides triggered by heavy showers.

The 300-km-long Jammu-Srinagar national highway also closed for traffic after two landslides in the Ramban district left hundreds of vehicles stranded.

South Kashmirs Anantnag and Kulgam districts are among the worst hit, with at least 50 villages under water and more than 1500 people marooned. On Thursday, the government dispatched 50 boats to the region that evacuated hundreds of people trapped by floodwater. A number of bridges have also collapsed in south and central Kashmir, cutting off several hamlets.

People living along the banks of Jhelum and embankments of other water bodies have been asked to move to safer areas immediately, said Kashmir divisional commissioner.

Amid complaints that the administration was slow in responding to the crisis, chief minister Omar Abdullah conducted an aerial survey of flood-affected districts on Thursday, directing officials to take all necessary measures to safeguard lives of people affected by the deluge.

The government has asked the air force to keep a rescue plan ready, and around 500,000 sand bags have been kept available, said a spokesperson. The cabinet has also approved Rs. 10 crore for rescue work.

All schools and colleges are closed in the state till Sunday. Kashmir University has postponed its examination.” – Hindustan Times

 

Arabian Sea/ Oman/ India : Tropical Cyclone NANAUK 02A 131200Z nr 19.8 N 62.4 E, moving WNW at 6.4 knots Weakened to a Depression(RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 130614 1737z

Tropical Cyclone NANAUK (2A)

10/7/2014 to 13/7/2014

 

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) TC Nanauk (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image to visit Weather Underground)

RSMC New Delhi

mapimage

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

 

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAY PYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA ( BANGLADESH )
STORM STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) +
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘NANAUK’ ADVISORY NO. TWENTY ONE ISSUED AT 1400 UTC OF 13TH JUNE

TH
2014 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 13 JUNE 2014

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED ABOUT 12 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT
0
1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13 JUNE, 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH AND
0
LONGITUDE 62.4 EAST, ABOUT 1100 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 850 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL(42909) AND 370 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND (41288). THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
DURING NEXT 24 HRS

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS SHEAR PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM
CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN
0 0 0 0
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH TO 22.0 NORTH LONGITUDES 58.0 EAST TO 64.0 EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
0
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT MINUS 78 C.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 13 JUNE 2014.

Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.co

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0214.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02A_130530sams.jpg

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 130900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
130600Z — NEAR 21.3N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 64.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 21.8N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 22.2N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CLEARLY SHOWS THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BY OVER
200 NM AND HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE CDO
FEATURE REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND DEEP AS STRONG OUTFLOW – GENERATED BY
THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET WINDS – PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-50
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND DRIFT POLEWARD WITH THE
850 MB FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, TYPICAL
WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTICES, HAS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

WTIN01 DEMS 130910

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 13 JUNE 2014
———————————————-
PART I:- STORM WARNING (.)
PART II:-THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘NANAUK’ OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED
AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY THE 12TH JUNE 2014 OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA(.) IT FURTHER MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
AND NOW LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE 2014 WITHIN
HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 18.7°N AND LONG. 62.7°E. THE SYSTEM WOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
THE FEEBLE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT MEAN SEA LEVEL NOW EXTENDS FROM
MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KERALA COAST(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS.(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:-SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS.(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)3-4 M (.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 65 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 35/40 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N AND
W OF 63 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-2-1 NM TO THE W OF 63 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- MORE THAN 5 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 05 DEG N:SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)4-5 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 15 DEG N:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)N OF 15 DEG N:WSW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM TO THE S OF 16 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

OMAN MARINE FORECAST http://met.gov.om/eng/marine_forecast.php

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  MaharasthraComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Ratnagiri
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 4.2 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Malvan to Vasai of Maharashtra coast.
Winds will be mainly southwesterly, speed 45-50 kmph temporarily/momentarily reaching 60 kmph in gusts/squall.
Sea will be rough with southwesterly waves.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.
Due to high swell propagation, combined with high tide, chances of wave surges are possible around 13:30 hrs on 14/06/2014 along the coast of Maharashtra.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Vasai

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Gujarat
High waves in the range of 3 -4.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast from Jakhau to Diu Head of Gujarat coast.
Wind will be 35 to 45 kmph from southewesterly direction wind speed in gust may temporarily reach 55 kmph. Sea will be rough with waves from southewesterly direction.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during the same period.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Okha

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KarnatakaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Karwar
High waves in the range of 3 – 3.8 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the coast from Mangalore to Karwar of Karnataka coast.
Strong onshore winds from South Westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Karnataka coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Karwar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  LakshadweepComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Agatti
High waves in the range of 3.0 -4.1 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely over Lakshadweep area.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Minicoy

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  KeralaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Kollam
High waves in the range of 3.0 – 3.5 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 13-06-2014 to 2330 hours of 15-06-2014 along the Kerala coast between Vilinjhinjam to Kasargod.
Strong onshore winds from westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely along off Kerala coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kasargod

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Tamil Nadu
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.1 meters are predicted during 1730 hrs on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hrs on 15-06-2014 along the Kolachal to Kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
Strong offshore winds from south westerly direction speed occasionally reaching 45-55 kmph likely off Tamil Nadu coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea during next 24 hours.
     images

Significant Wave Height
Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  AndamanComparisions of wave forecast with Observations :      Portblair
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.3 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the west coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Nicobar
High waves in the range of 2.5 – 3.2 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 12-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 14-06-2014 along the west coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.
Under the influence of strong south west monsoon current, strong south westerly wind speed exceeding 55kmph and generally rough to very rough likely along and off A & N coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Significant Wave Height
Car-Nicobar

High Wind-Wave Warning

Issue Date : 13/06/2014                                       Region :  Goa
High waves in the range of 3.0 -3.9 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 13-06-2014 to 23:30 hours of 15-06-2014 along the coast of Goa between Vengurla to Vasco.
Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during next 24 hours.

Significant Wave Height
Vengurla
images
AVHRR Image

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India: Train collides with marriage party jeep 11 killed (inc 4 children), 2 injured in West Champaran, Bihar – Published 080614 1050z

(Image credit: indiaopines.com)

At least 11 people including 4 kids were killed and 2 others sustained wounds as the jeep they were traveling in was hit by a goods train at an unmanned crossing in Indian state of Bihar on Saturday night, authority said on Sunday.

The tragedy took place as the train passing through the crossing hit the jeep with 13 people on-board on its track between Majhaulia and Sugauli railway stations in West Champaran district of the state, confirmed, Superintendent of Police (SP) Saurabh Kumar said.

The crash killed 4 people on the spot, while 7 others succumbed to their critical wounds at the hospital they were whisked off.

The jeep was reported to be carrying members of a marriage party, including the groom and his close relatives, to Sugauli from Babutola.- Ubalert

Other Reports

“The accident took place at the unmanned Rajghat railway crossing near Bettiah, about 200 km from Patna, when the car carrying people from a wedding including the groom, was hit by the goods train.” – NDTV

 

Train hits jeep at unmanned crossing, 11 killed in West Champaran

TIMES OF INDIA:

“BETTIAH: Eleven persons, including four children, were killed and two others injured as a speeding goods train hit a jeep carrying members of a marriage party at an unmanned crossing in Bihar’s West Champaran district, a police official said on Sunday.

The accident occurred last evening when the jeep carrying 13 members of a marriage party was hit by a goods train while it was trying to cross an unmanned crossing at Gobrahi-Rajghat between Majhaulia and Sugauli railway stations, Superintendent of Police (SP) Saurabh Kumar said.

While four occupants died on the spot, seven others succumbed to injuries in hospital, he said, adding the bodies have been sent for post-mortem.

Two of the injured were undergoing treatment at a hospital where their condition was stated to be critical, he said.

The ill-fated vehicle was carrying members of a marriage party, including the groom and his close relatives, from Babutola to Sugauli (East Champaran), he said.

Meanwhile, the East Central Railway (ECR) DRM Arun Malik visited the spot and ordered manning of the railway crossing there, the SP said.

In Patna, chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi expressed grief over the incident and directed the district administration to undertake rescue and relief works.

He has also appealed to road users to be careful while passing through unmanned crossing.”

India/Bay of Bengal: Low Pressure Area MADI (RSMC New Delhi) Tropical Cyclone 120300Z nr 11.9N 81.5E, moving SW at 10 knots (JTWC) Final Warning- 121213 1102z

Tropical Cyclone Madi (JTWC)

 

 

= Tropical Storm (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category)

Low Pressure Area (RSMC NEW DELHI)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

(Image: IMD) Chennai Doppler Radar (Click image for animation/source)

 

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12 -12 -2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
OFF TAMILNADU COAST.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA :-BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA,
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER EASTCENTRAL & SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL,
ARABIAN SEA :-NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
RIDGE LINE:-RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 14.0N OVER THE INDIAN REGION.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0613.gif

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 120300

 

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z NEAR 12.2N 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 82.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z 10.9N 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z 9.9N 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A DEVOLVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MINIMALLY
FLARING CONVECTION WHILE STEADILY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
RECENT 112354Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS WEAKENING STRUCTURE
AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LAND INTERACTION DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIA AND
FURTHER DEVOLVE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06B_081730sair.jpg

 

END

 

Extreme weather could become norm around Indian Ocean, say scientists http://tinyurl.com/knpzqlf

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

 

WTIN01 DEMS 120900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 12 DECMBER 2013

PART I:-STORM WARNING (.)
DEPRESSION WEAKEN INTO WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER SW BAY OF BENGAL,AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY(.)
IT FURTHER MOVED SW-WARDS AND LIES OVER SW BAY OF
BENGAL OFF NORTH TAMILNADU COAST(.)
PART II :-(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA (VIII)(.)
ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N:-
I)W OF 70 DEG E:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)E OF 70 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
TO THE E OF 72 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 05 DEG N:NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)I)1-2 M II)0.5-1 M 2)1-2 M(.)

 

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N:-
I)W OF 70 DEG E:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)E OF 70 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
TO THE E OF 72 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 05 DEG N:NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)I)1-2 M II)0.5-1 M 2)1-2 M(.)
A2 ARABIAN SEA :-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 1-2 M (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 1-2 M (.)
BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS (.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)

 

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

 

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

 

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

 

 

Issue Date :11-12-2013 Region : Tamil NaduComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry
High wind waves in the range of 3.0- 3.6 meters are predicted during 17:30 on 11-12-2013 to 23:30 12-12-2013 along the Nagapattinam to Pulicat of Tamil Nadu coast. The forecasted wind speeds range from around 10 m/sec to 18 m/sec. The forecasted currents vary in the range of 100 to 130 cm/sec., at most of the locations close to the coast. The forecasted swell heights vary in the range of 2.0- 2.5 m.Under the influence of this system, rainfall at a few places would occur over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry during next 48 hrs.

Fishermen along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea and should not venture into deep sea.

images
images
Currents

Swell

Significant Wave Height

 

Pondichery

 

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

 

 

Issue Date :11-12-2013 Region : Andhra PradeshComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Vizag
High wind waves between 3.0- 3.6 meters are forecasted from 1730 hrs of 11-12-2013 to 2330 hrs of 12-12-2013 along the Andhra coast between Kakinada to Durgarajupatnam. The forecasted wind speeds range from around 10 m/sec to 15 m/sec. The forecasted currents vary in the range of 100 to 130 cm/sec., at most of the locations close to the coast. The forecasted swell heights vary in the range of 1.5 -2.3 m.Under the influence of this system, rainfall at a few places would occur over coastal southern Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hrs.

Fishermen along and off southern Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea and should not venture into deep sea.

images
images
Currents

Swell

Significant Wave Height

Kakinada

India/Bay of Bengal: Depression(IMD)/Tropical Cyclone 4B HELEN 192100Z nr 15.1N 83.9E, moving W at 7 knots (JTWC)

CYCLONIC STORM HELEN (RSMC NEW DELHI)

Tropical Cyclone 04B (HELEN)(JTWC)

Up to 10.1 million people people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above. In addition, 1.3 million people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge. - GDACS

“(Helen) forecast to make landfall as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with winds gusting up to 120kph. Or about the equivalent of Typhoon Strength Gust.” – Westernpacificweather

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM HELEN ADVISORY NO. TWO ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF
20TH NOVEMBER 2013 BASED ON 0600UTC CHARTS of 20TH NOVEMBER 2013.

THE CYCLONIC STORM HELEN OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 6 HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 20
TH
NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 15.2
0
N AND LONGITUDE 84.0
0
E, ABOUT 470 KM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279), 430 KM EAST OF KAVALI (43243), 320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MACHILIPATNAM (43185) AND 290 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149).
THE SYSTEM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME, THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND CROSS SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN SRIHARIKOTA
(ANDHRA PRADESH) AND ONGOLE (43221), CLOSE TO KAVALI AROUND NIGHT OF 21
ST
NOVEMBER 2013.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.5.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUD EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT 13.5
0
N AND 18.0
0
N LONG 82.0
0
E AND
86.0
0
E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -80
0
C.CONVECTIVE BANDING
IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTRE HAS ORGANISED AND CONSOLIDATED FURTHER DURING PAST 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.
T
RACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/Time(UTC)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ long.
0
E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
20
-11-2013/0600
15.2/84.0
70-80 GUSTING TO 90
CYCLONIC STORM
20
-11-2013/1200
15.4/83.5
75-85 GUSTING TO 95
CYCLONIC STORM
20
-11-2013/1800
15.4/83.0
85-95 GUSTING TO 105
CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/0000
15.2/82.5
90-100 GUSTING TO 110
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/0600
15.0/82.0
95-105 GUSTING TO 115
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/1800
14.8/80.8
100-110 GUSTING TO 120
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
22
-11-2013/0600
14.7/79.5
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
22
-11-2013/1800
14.6/78.2
55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
23-11-2013/060
0
14.5/77.0
40-50 GUSTING TO 60
DEPRESSION
REMARKS:
THE SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED BY DWR- MACHILIPATNAM, VISAKHAPATNAM
AND CHENNAI. ACCORDING TO THESE RADARS, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N AND
84.0E AT 0600 UTC. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS NEAR 13.5N AND 84.0E SHOW MSLP OF 1007.3
HPA AND WINDS OF 270/16 KTS.
THE CYCLONIC STORM HELEN LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE WHICH RUNS ALONG 17
0
N. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONGWITH LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE VORTICITY ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THEY HAVE INCREASED
DURING PAST 12 HRS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 28-29
0
C. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS LOW TO MODERATE (05-15 KNOTS).
DIVERGENCE IN NWP MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO LANDFALL
POINT AND TIME, AS THE TRACK FORECAST VARIES FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. WITH RESPECT TO INTENSIFICATION, THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS SUGGESTING
SLOW INTENSIFICATION OR NO INTENSIFICATION. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON
CONSENSUS NWP AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.NSUS NWP AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0413.gif

 

WTIO31 PGTW 200900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
200600Z — NEAR 15.3N 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 84.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 15.5N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 15.7N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 15.8N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 15.8N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 15.7N 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT AMSU-B
PASSES (200409Z AND 200733Z) INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
THE LLCC AND WITHIN THE MAIN FEEDER BAND TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASSES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PGTW CENTER FIX LOCATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AND PERSISTENCE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HELEN
IS LOCATED NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE AT 15-20 KNOTS. DIVERGENCE IS CONTAINED IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION AS OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
PROVIDES THE LARGEST SOURCE OF EXHAUST. TC HELEN HAS MAINTAINED SLOW
TRACK SPEEDS DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS AS IT MEANDERS NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THESE SLOW TRACK SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK WITHIN
THE WEAKNESS. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND STEER TC HELEN ON A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK AFTER
TAU 24. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 IS EXPECTED AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BATTLES THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS
BUT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DROP-OFF BY TAU 36 AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIFURCATION AMONGST
MODEL TRACKERS WITH THE WEAKER VORTEX CLUSTER (ECMF, NVGM, GFDN,
EGRR) TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE STRONGER VORTEX CLUSTER (AVNO,
HWRF, CTCX) TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS BASED ON LAST 18 HOUR PERSISTENCE OF
SLOW TRACK SPEEDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE TIMING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY NOW FAVORS THE TRACKERS THAT
DEPICT A STRONGER VORTEX AND SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKERS, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoN Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 20 Nov, 2013 6:00 GMT

 

 

Tropical Storm HELEN (04B) currently located near 15.3 N 84.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

https://i0.wp.com/old.gdacs.org/images/gdacs_logo_small.png

 

Automatic impact report for tropical cyclone HELEN-13

alertimage

Green alert for wind impact in India

This tropical cyclone is expected to have a low humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.

 

Current storm status

 

This report is for advisory number 4 of tropical cyclone HELEN-13 issued at 11/20/2013 6:00:00 AM (GDACS Event ID 41389, Latest episode ID: 4).

 

Current impact estimate:

 

  • Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0
  • Tropical Storm (maximum wind speed of 111 km/h)
  • Vulnerability of affected countries: High

 

Impact of Extreme Wind

 

Cloud map
Cloud map. The map shows the areas affected by tropical storm strength winds (green), 58mph winds (orange) and cyclone wind strengths (red). (Source: JRC)

Affected population

Up to 10.1 million people people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above. In addition, 1.3 million people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

Affected provinces

Country Region/Province Population
India Andhra Pradesh 70.2 million people
India Pondicherry 850000 people

Affected cities

Name Region/Province Country City class Population
Kandukur Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Bhimavaram Andhra Pradesh India City 130000 people
Narasapur Andhra Pradesh India City 59000 people
Gudivada Andhra Pradesh India City 7200 people
Guntur Andhra Pradesh India City 510000 people
Tenali Andhra Pradesh India City 150000 people
Narasaropet Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Machilipatnam Andhra Pradesh India City 180000 people
Bapatla Andhra Pradesh India City 68000 people
Nizampatam Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Chirala Andhra Pradesh India City 86000 people
Ongole Andhra Pradesh India City 170000 people
Kottapatnam Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

See complete report

 

WesternPacificWeather.com

“The western pacific may be quite but Cyclone Helen has now formed over the bay of Bengal. It is forecasted to make landfall as a severe Cyclonic storm with winds gusting up to 120kph. Or about the equivalent of Typhoon Strength Gust.” – Westernpacificweather

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0134

WTIN01 DEMS 200134
SHIPPING BULLETINE FOR MET. AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HRS FROM 0100 UTC OF 20-11-2013.
—————————————————————
THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IT FURTHER MOVED WESTWARD AND
LAY CENTRED AT 2330 HRS IST OF 19TH NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 N AND LONGITUDE 84.5 E(.)
THE SYSTEM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM
DURING NEXT 24 HRS. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME
TIME, THEN WESTSOUTHWESTWARD (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

 

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Tamil Nadu

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry

High wind waves in the range of 2.5 – 3 meters are predicted during 02:30 hrs on 19-11-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 20-11-2013 along the Kolacahl to kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :19/11/2013 Region : Andhra Pradesh

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Vizag

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m 4.0m) off Andhra Pradesh coast (Nellore to Srikakulam) during 1730 hrs of 19-11-2013 To 2330 hrs of 21-11-2013. At the Amalapuram coast, the maximum waves (nearly 4 ) Would be experienced during 21-11-2013, 1730 hrs.

Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh commencing from 20st November 2013 night.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from 20th November 2013 night.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Sea off Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen out at sea off Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to return to the coast.

Tide Predictions

Vishakapatnam

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Andaman

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Portblair

High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along the west coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.

Tide Predictions

Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Kerala

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Kozhikode

High wind waves in the range of 2.5 3.0 meters are forecasted during 0230 hours on 19-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 20-11-2013 along the Kerala coast between Vilinjam to Kasargod.
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Vizhinjam

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Lakshadweep

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Agatti

High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Minicoy

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :19/11/2013 Region : Tamil Nadu

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 3.0m) off Puducheery aand Tamil Nadu coasts (Nagapattinam to Chennai) during 1730 hrs of 19-11-2013 to 2330 hrs of 21-11-2013.

Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu commencing from 20st November 2013 night.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu coast commencing from 20th November 2013 night.

Fishermen along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast are advised to be cautious while going into sea.

Tide Predictions

Pondichery

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Nicobar
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along the west coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.

null

Tide Predictions

Car-Nicobar

images
AVHRR Image

 

 

India: Depression (IMD)/ Tropical cyclone 30W 160900Z near 10.8N 79.9E moving WNW at 9 knots (JTWC) crossed Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam (RSMC New Delhi) – 161113 1155z OUTDATED see http://wp.me/p2k2mU-29R

MOST INFORMATION ON THIS PAGE IS NOW OUT OF DATE

The latest Tropical Cyclone information at this time (12th June 2014) can be found here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/indian-ocean-india-tropical-cyclone-developing-invest-95a-091230z-nr-13-6n-68-1e-moving-ne-at-10-knots-jtwc-published-090614-1815z/

More generally here: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/category/severe-weather/

The following information left here for historic research purposes:

Depression (RSMC New Delhi)

Tropical Cyclone 30W (JTWC)

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS�RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-11-2013
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 16 NOVEMBER, 2013
BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 16 NOVEMBER, 2013.
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS AND
CROSSED TAMIL NADU COAST NEAR NAGAPATTINAM (43147) BETWEEN 0700 AND 0800 UTC AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 16
TH
NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 11.0
0
N AND
LONGITUDE 79.5
0
E, ABOUT 40 KM WEST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43147). THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE
AREA DURING NEXT 24HRS
.
.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS EMBEDDED
WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER NORTH TAMILNADU, SOUTH
INTERIOR KARNATAKA, SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH RAYALSEEMA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY AND SOUTH AANDHRA PRADESH
COASTS.
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM

Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

Time of issue: 1530 hours IST
Dated: 16-11-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB05/2013/19
Sub: Depression crossed Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam
The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards crossed
Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam between 1230 and 1330 hrs IST and lay
centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 16
th
November 2013 near latitude 11.0
0
N and
longitude 79.5
0
E, about 40 km west of Nagapattinam. The system would move west-
northwestwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during
next 24hrs.
Warning for north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh
(i)
Rainfall
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a
few places would occur over north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24
hours and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur during subsequent
24 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would
occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during next 48 hrs.
Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over south
Tamilnadu and south interior Karnataka during next 48 hrs.
(ii)
Squally/Gale Winds
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail
along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast
during next 12 hours. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60
kmph would also prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu coast during the same
period.
(iii)
Sea condition
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry
and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 12 hrs.
(iv)
Action Suggested
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 12 hrs.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 16
th
November, 2013.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/30W_131300sams.jpg

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp3013.gif

WTIO32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 017�
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 10.8N 80.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 80.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 10.9N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 79.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD OVER LAND AND
RAPIDLY ERODING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, WHICH IS NOW
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD, IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 30W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR NAGAPATTINAM, SOUTHEASTERN INDIA AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND WITHIN 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z
IS 10 FEET.�� //
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Nov, 2013 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

 

Storm Tracker Map

Tropical Depression THIRTY (30W) currently located near 10.8 N 80.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
��������probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
�Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

FQIN01 DEMS 160900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 16 NOVEMBER 2013
—————————————————————
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING(.)

PART II :-� THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
��������������� PERSISTD� AND LIKELY TO CROSSED EAST COAST OF SOUTH
INDIA
��������������� BY 16TH EVENING (.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)

ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY� TO THE S OF 05 DEG
N(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 M (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY� TO THE S OF 05 DEG
N(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 M (.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA :-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:- NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:- NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
BOB:A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WNW-LY 05/10 KTS
2)N OF 05 DEG N:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SSE-LY TO THE W
OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA SCATTRED(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M� (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WNW-LY 05/10 KTS
2)N OF 05 DEG N:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SSE-LY TO THE W
OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA SCATTRED(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M� (.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS (.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARMENT=

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :�15-11-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �Tamil Nadu 

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : �����Pondicherry

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 4.0m) off Tamil Nadu (Nagapattinam to Chennai) and Puducherry coasts during 1730 hrs of 15-11-2013 to 0530 hrs of 17-11-2013. 

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rainfall (?25 cm) would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from tonight. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls would occur over north Tamil Nadu on 16th & 17th November. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over south Tamil Nadu on 16th and 17th November, 2013.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast commencing from tonight. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would also prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu coast commencing from tonight.

� Fishermen out at sea off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts are advised to return to the coast. � Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.

Tide Predictions

Nagapatnam

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :�15-11-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �Andhra Pradesh 

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : �����Vizag

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 4.0m) off South Andhra coasts (Nellore to Kakinada) during 1730 hrs of 15-11-2013 to 0530 hrs of 17-11-2013. 

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places on 16th and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on 17th November would occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail off south Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from tonight.

Fishermen out at sea off south Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to return to the coast.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea off south Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Tide Predictions

Kakinada

images
AVHRR Image

India/Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone (VSCS/CAT3-SS) 02B / Phailin 122100Z nr 20.0N 84.7E, moving NNW at 10 knots (JTWC) Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast (IMD) – 121013 2100z

Tropical Cyclone (VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ) 02B (Two) /Phailin Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh
and Odisha Coast. (IMD)

Cyclone Phailin hit the coast near Gopalpur, Orissa state, at about 21:15 (15:45 GMT)

Predicted storm surge of at least 3m (10ft) expected to cause extensive damage – BBC News

Tropical Cyclone Phailin Could Be Packing 10-Foot Surge Dr. Jeff Masters, Weather Underground

(Scroll down for Hindi and Gujarati translations) (हिंदी और गुजराती अनुवाद के लिए नीचे स्क्रॉल)
(હિન્દી અને ગુજરાતી અનુવાદ માટે નીચે સ્ક્રોલ કરો)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: IMD) Visakhapatnam Doppler Radar (Click image for source)

RSMC-Tropical Cyclones New Delhi India

(Image: IMD)


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM
PHAILIN
ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SIX ISSUED AT 1700 UTC OF 12
TH
OCTOBER 2013 BASED ON 1500 UTC CHARTS of 12
TH
OCTOBER 2013.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM,
PHAILIN
OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 3 HOURS
WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH OCTOBER
2013 OVER NORTHWEST ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 19.1
0
N
AND LONGITUDE 85.0
0
E, CLOSE TO GOPALPUR. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
LANDFALL PROCESS HAS STARTED AND IT WILL BE COMPLETED WITHIN NEXT ONE HOUR.
AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WOULD BE 200-210 KMPH.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 6.0. INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN NORTH OF LAT 15.0
0
N AND WEST OF LONG 88.0
0
E
ALONG ODISHA AND NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -78
0
C.
DWR VISAKHAPATNAM IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM AND REPORTED CENTRE AS LATITUDE
19.1
0
N
AND LONGITUDE
85.0
0
E AT
1500
U
T
C
. GOPALPUR (43049) HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 24
HOURS PRESSURE FALL OF 24.4 HPA,
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 98 KNOTS FROM
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER GOPALPUR (ODISHA).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 105 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 120 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS
PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
ABOUT 940 HPA.
ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION
(LAT.
0
N/ LONG.
0
E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM
SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY
12-10-2013/1500
19.1/85.0
200-210 GUSTING TO 230
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12-10-2013/1800
20.2/84.3
170-180 GUSTING TO 200
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13-10-2013/0000
21.2/84.0
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
13-10-2013/0600
22.0/83.5
50-60 GUSTING TO 70
DEEP DEPRESSION

Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

Time of issue: 2130 hours IST . Dated: 12-10-2013
(Red Message)
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/34
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN over northwest adjoining westcentral Bay
of Bengal is crossing coast close to Gopalpur (Odisha)
The very severe cyclonic storm,
PHAILIN
over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of
Bengal moved north-northwestwards during past 3 hours with a speed of 15 kmph and lay centred at
2030 hrs IST of today, the 12
th
October 2013 over northwest adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal
near latitude 19.1
0
N and longitude 85.0
0
E, close to Gopalpur. Latest observations indicate that
landfall process has started and it will be completed within next one hour. At the time of landfall,
maximum sustained wind speed would be 200-210 kmph.
Estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
12-10-2013/2030
19.1/85.0
200-210 gusting to 230
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/2330
20.2/84.3
170-180 gusting to 200
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530
21.2/84.0
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1130
22.0/83.5
50-60 gusting to 70
Deep Depression
Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
(i)
Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely
heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during
next 48 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West
Bengal during next 48 hrs..
(ii)
Gale wind:
Gale
winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal
districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha would prevail at the time of
landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be
phenomenal. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above
period.
(iii)
Storm Surge Guidance:
Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide
would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and
Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
(iv)
Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh:
Extensive
damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and
communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from
flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.
(v)
Action suggested:
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along north Andhra
Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast. Total suspension of fishing operations. Large scale
evacuation of population from coastal areas. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in vulnerable
areas. People in affected areas to remain indoors
Post landfall outlook:
Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain the intensity of very severe
cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while
moving northwestwards across interior Odisha. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy
falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at
many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Gale wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph would also prevail
for 6 hours and 60-70 for subsequent 6 hours over Odisha during the same period.
The next bulletin will be issued at 0130 hrs IST of tomorrow, the 13
th October, 2013


Cyclone Phailin Odisha Helpline Number

Helpline Number for Cyclone Affected Odisha State is been Released. Please Note down the Numbers of the Control Room and Save Lifes by Sharing. Please Print or Note down the numbers Now for someone will be in need during and after the Cyclone Phailin devastation.

Odisha State Helpline Number

Odisha Central Control Room is 0674-2534177

DISTRICT CONTROL ROOMS
==========================
Mayurbhanj 06792-252759
Jajpur 06728-222648
Gajapati 06815-222943
Dhenkanal 06762-221376
Khurda 06755-220002
Keonjhar 06766-255437
Cuttack 0671-2507842
Ganjam 06811-263978
Puri 06752-223237
Kendrapara 06727-232803
Jagatsinghpur 06724-220368
Balasore 06782-26267
Bhadrak 06784-251881

India Braces for Extremely Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin

Tropical Cyclone Phailin Could Be Packing 10-Foot Surge

Tropical Cyclone Phailin, a category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, is approaching the northeast Indian coast. The massive storm has sustained winds of 155 mph (250 kph).

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, Weather Underground

Updated: 5:46 PM GMT on October 12, 2013

Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has made landfall on the northeast coast of India near the town of Gopalpur (population 7,000) at 16 UTC (noon EDT) Saturday, October 12, 2013. Phailin was weakening substantially at landfall, due to interaction with land, and was rated a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), four hours before landfall. The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall. A 938 mb pressure is what one expects to find in a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, using the “Dvorak technique” of satellite wind and pressure estimation. Satellite images show that Phailin’s intense thunderstorms have warmed and shrunk in areal coverage, and radar out of Visakhapanam, India also shows a weakening of the storm’s echoes as it pushes inland. Phailin is bringing torrential rains of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave satellite instruments.


Figure 1. Radar image of Phailin at landfall. Image credit: IMD.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a top-end Category 4 storm with winds of 150 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Damage from Phailin
Phailin is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That storm hit with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, and brought a storm surge of 5.9 meters (19 feet) to the coast. Phailin should be able to drive a similar-sized storm surge to the coast, since it is larger in areal extent than the 1999 cyclone (although somewhat weaker, with winds perhaps 20 – 30 mph lower.) Phailin’s storm surge and Category 3 to 4 winds will cause near-catastrophic damage to a 50-mile wide swath of the coast where the eyewall comes ashore, and to the right. Hurricane Katrina was weaker at landfall than Phailin, but Katrina had hurricane-force winds that covered a much larger area, making Katrina’s storm surge much more devastating than Phailin’s will be. I think the main danger from Phailin will be from its winds. I am particularly concerned about Phailin’s wind damage potential in the city of Brahmapur (population 350,000), the 58th largest city in India. Brahmapur lies about ten miles inland, and will likely experience sustained hurricane-force winds for several hours. Phailin’s flooding potential is another huge concern, as rainfall amounts of 6 – 12 inches will fall along a swath over 100 miles inland, triggering life-threatening flash flooding.

How strong was Phailin?
Questions have been raised about the India Meteorological Department (IMD) assessments of Phailin’s strength, which were considerably lower than that of the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Both centers use satellite estimates rather than direct measurements of the winds, so we don’t know which center is correct. It is true that satellite estimates using the same techniques give different results for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans–i.e., a storm with the same appearance on satellite imagery will be weaker in the Atlantic than in the Pacific (see this chart of the differences.) It may be that this is the case in the Indian Ocean as well. IMD has looked at some buoy data to try and calibrate their satellite strength estimates, but high-end tropical cyclones are uncommon enough in the Indian Ocean that I doubt we really know whether or not Indian Ocean cyclones have the same winds as a hurricane in the Atlantic with the same satellite signature. Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 10-minute average winds for their advisories, and JTWC uses 1-minute, so the winds in the IMD advisories will be lower by at least 6%, due to the longer averaging period. This issue could be cleared up if India had its own hurricane hunter aircraft; there have been some high-level discussions about India getting a C-130 aircraft like the U.S. Air Force uses to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Nari, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Nari was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Dr. Jeff Masters Weather Underground

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0213.gif

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 122100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121800Z — NEAR 19.6N 84.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 84.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 21.2N 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 22.7N 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 84.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 02B HAS MADE LANDFALL
APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTHEAST OF VISAKHPATNAM, INDIA, AND HAS
QUICKLY STARTED TO LOSE ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DUE TO THE LAND
EFFECTS. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST FURTHER INTO INDIA
AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoN Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 18.7 N 85.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

TSR Storm Tracker Map PAST AND FORECAST TRACK : Tropical Storm TWO: Storm-centered zoom at 48 hours lead

Other Reports

 

Cyclone Phailin makes landfall in India

BBC

The BBC’s Sanjoy Majumder: “The intensity of the winds has become stronger”

Related Stories

A huge cyclone that has forced as many as 500,000 people to flee their homes has made landfall in eastern India.

Winds were measured at 200 km/h (125mph) as Cyclone Phailin hit the coast near Gopalpur, Orissa state, at about 21:15 (15:45 GMT).

Authorities had predicted a storm surge of at least 3m (10ft) that was expected to cause extensive damage.

Officials say they are better prepared than in 1999 when a cyclone killed thousands of people in Orissa.

Cyclone Phailin has been classed as “very severe”, and the head of India’s Meteorological Office, LS Rathore, said it would remain in that category for six hours before losing strength.

At the scene

As we arrived in Brahmapur, just inland from where the cyclone had first hit the coast, we were met with a scene of apocalyptic devastation.

The town was in total darkness, the headlights of our vehicle illuminating felled trees and power lines blocking roads.

Store signs and other debris were being pitched high in the air by powerful storm gusts. Elaborate decorations for a major Hindu festival that people were due to celebrate this weekend were strewn across the main road.

Most shops are shuttered, with hundreds of residents now evacuated. Many streets are already flooded, and this may be only the beginning as further heavy rain is expected.

The lobby of our hotel is now covered with glass, after several gusts blew in its main windows. It looks set to be a terrifying night, as the cyclone sweeps through this town and a vast swathe of the Indian coastline.

The eye of the storm was moving at 10-15 km/h (6-9mph), he said.

The BBC’s Sanjoy Majumder reported heavy rain and high winds lashing Gopalpur as the cyclone made landfall.

‘Apocalyptic devastation’

The storm has ripped up trees and road signs, and cut power supplies in some areas. There were reports of window panes being shattered and roofs being blown off.

Five deaths were linked to the cyclone by Indian media, four attributed to falling trees and one to a house collapse.

Another BBC reporter, Andrew North, spoke of a scene of apocalyptic devastation in Brahmapur, just inland from where the cyclone reached the coast.

Store signs and other debris were being pitched high in the air by storm gusts and elaborate decorations for a major Hindu festival were strewn over the main road.

Officials had earlier said that no-one would be allowed to stay in mud and thatched houses along the coast of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh states, but some residents said they wanted to stay put.

“Many people refused to move, had to be convinced, and at times the police had to forcefully move them to safe places,” said Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde.

The army has been placed on standby for emergency and relief operations. Helicopters and food packages were ready to be dropped in the storm-affected areas.

Indian villagers seeking shelter from Cyclone Phailin, 12 October 2013 Cyclone Phailin is described as the biggest storm in the region for 14 years
People sheltering from Cyclone Phailin near Bhubaneswar, 12 October 2013 As many as 500,000 people have left their homes, many for storm shelters
Debris from storm damage at a fishing harbour in Visakhapatnam district, Andhra Pradesh, India, 12 October 2013 The storm was expected to cause extensive damage to coastal areas
Indian villagers are given food at a shelter in Ganjam district, east of Bhubaneswar, 12 October 2013 Authorities say they are now better prepared than in 1999, when a super-cyclone hit Orissa

Hours before the cyclone made landfall it was generating winds of 240 km/h (150mph) over the Bay of Bengal. Most of those evacuated were in Orissa state.

Sushant Sahoo, a resident of Orissa’s state capital, Bhubaneswar, told the BBC that it had been raining there since the morning, and the streets were empty.

“We have no electricity, it is very dark right now and very grim,” he said.

“I have dry food and candles. The local government has been good at getting everyone prepared and taking care of people.”

India’s eastern coast and Bangladesh are routinely hit by cyclonic storms between April and November that cause deaths and widespread damage to property.

In December 2011, Cyclone Thane hit the southern state of Tamil Nadu, killing dozens of people.

Map of India

A

MARITIME

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :12-10-2013 Region : OrissaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Gopalpur
Time of issue: 1600 hrs (valid for the period 1730 hrs, 12-10-2013 to 1730 hrs, 14-10-2013)It is forecasted that the wave conditions off the Odisha coast will be very rough (>4.0m) and become gradually much higher by evening hours of 12th October 2013. The wave height is forecasted to be maximum (nearly 8.5 m) between Gopalpur (Ganjam District) and Saharabedi (Jagatsingpur District) during 2330 hrs of 12 October, 2013. The swell wave heights vary in the range of 3.0 to 5.0m. The current speeds vary between 100-150 cm/sec.

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (? 25 cm) would occur over Odisha during next 48 hrs.

Gale winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of Odisha would prevail at the time of landfall.

Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha during landfall.

Fishermen out at sea along Odisha coast are advised to return to coast.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during the next 48 hours

images images
Significant Wave HeightWind Speed
images
Swell

Tide Predictions

Gopalpur

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :12-10-2013 Region : Andhra PradeshComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Vizag
Time of issue: 1600 hrs (valid for the period 1730 hrs, 12-10-2013 to 1730 hrs, 14-10-2013)It is forecasted that the wave conditions in the sea off north Andhra Pradesh would be very rough (> 4.0 m) and will become much higher during the evening hours on 12th October 2013. The wave height is forecasted to be maximum nearly 7.0 m between Baruva (Srikakulam District) and Ichchapuram (Srikakulam District) during 1730 hrs of 12 October, 2013. The swell wave heights vary in the range of 3.0 to 5.0m. The current speeds vary between 100-150 cm/sec.

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (? 25 cm) would occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs.

Gale winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh would prevail at the time of landfall.

Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during the next 48 hours.

images images
Significant Wave HeightWind Speed
images
Swell

Tide Predictions

Baruva

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :12-10-2013 Region : West Bengal
Time of issue: 1600 hrs (valid for the period 1730 hrs, 12-10-2013 to 1730 hrs, 14-10-2013)It is forecasted that the wave conditions will be rough (2.5 m 4.0m) to very rough ( >4.0 m) off West Bengal coast during the above period. The wave height is forecasted to be maximum (nearly 5.0 m) between Digha (East Midnapore District) and Fraserganj (South 24 Parganas District) during evening hours of 12 October, 2013. The swell wave heights vary in the range of 3.0 to 4.0m. The current speeds vary between 100 and 130 cm/sec.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from afternoon of 12th October.

Fishermen out at sea along West Bengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during the next 48 hours.

images images
Significant Wave HeightWind Speed
images
Swell

Tide Predictions

Sagar-Roads

images
AVHRR Image

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1231

WTIN01 DEMS 121231
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HRS FROM 1200 UTC OF 12-10-2013.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, PHAILIN OVER WESTCENTRAL &
ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND
LIES CENTRED AT 1430 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 12TH OCTOBER 2013
OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 18.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 85.5 DEG E,
ABOUT 90 KM SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR, 120 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
KALINGAPATNAM AND 220 KM SOUTHWEST OF PARADIP. IT WOULD MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COASTS
BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP, CLOSE TO GOPALPUR (ODISHA)
BY EVENING OF TODAY I.E. THE 12TH OCTOBER, 2013 AS A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 210-220 KMPH
GUSTING TO 240 KMPH.

NOTE: NEXT SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL ORIGINATE AT 0100 UTC ON
DATED 12.10.2013 IN ADDITION TO ROUTINE TWO DAILY BULLETIN.

DUTY OFFICER=

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053
FQIN01 DEMS 120053
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HRS FROM 0100 UTC OF 12-10-2013.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, PHAILIN OVER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LIES CENTRED AT 0230 HRS IST OF 12TH OCTOBER
2013 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
WITHIN HALF ADEGREE OF LATITUDE 16.9 DEG N AND LONGITUDE
87.0 DEG E, ABOUT 375 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP, 345 KM SOUTHEAST
OF GOPALPUR, AND 340 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (.)
IT WOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND
ODISHA COASTS BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP, CLOSE TO
GOPALPUR (ODISHA) BY EVENING OF TODAY I.E. THE 12TH OCTOBER, 2013
AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
OF 210-220 KMPH(. )=

END

भारत / बंगाल की खाड़ी : 10 समुद्री मील पश्चिम घूम रहा उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात ( VSCS/CAT3-SS ) 02B / Phailin 122100Z एन.आर. 20.0N 84.7E , उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश और ओडिशा तट ( आईएमडी) के लिए ( JTWC ) चक्रवात चेतावनी – 121013 2100z

उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात ( बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान ) 02B ( दो) / Phailin – Saffir-सिम्पसन स्केल पर श्रेणी 3

उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश के चक्रवात चेतावनी
और ओडिशा तट . (आईएमडी )

चक्रवात Phailin बारे में 21:15 ( 15:45 जीएमटी) में गोपालपुर , उड़ीसा , निकट तट मारा

बीबीसी समाचार – कम से कम 3 मीटर ( 10ft ) की अनुमानित वृद्धि तूफान व्यापक क्षति हो जाने की उम्मीद

डॉ. जेफ मास्टर्स , मौसम भूमिगत – उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin 10 फुट वृद्धि पैकिंग हो सकता है

( हिंदी और गुजराती अनुवाद के लिए नीचे स्क्रॉल ) ( हिंदी और गुजराती अनुवाद के लिए नीचे स्क्रॉल )
( હિન્દી અને ગુજરાતી અનુવાદ માટે નીચે સ્ક્રોલ કરો )

(छवि: wunderground.com ) 5 दिनों का पूर्वानुमान ( स्रोत के लिए छवि पर क्लिक करें )

(छवि: wunderground.com ) उपग्रह ( स्रोत के लिए छवि पर क्लिक करें )

(छवि: आईएमडी) विशाखापत्तनम डॉपलर रडार ( स्रोत के लिए छवि पर क्लिक करें )

RSMC – उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात नई दिल्ली – भारत

(छवि: आईएमडी)

उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात सलाहकार
RSMC – उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवातों , नई दिल्ली
उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान
‘ PHAILIN ‘
परामर्शी सं . छब्बीस 12 के 1700 यूटीसी में जारी
गु
अक्टूबर 2013 12 के 1500 यूटीसी चार्ट पर आधारित
गु
अक्टूबर 2013 .
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान ,
PHAILIN
कार्यभार WESTCENTRAL और आसपास के
बंगाल के उत्तर पश्चिमी खाड़ी में पिछले 3 घंटों के दौरान उत्तर NORTHWESTWARDS चले गए
एक 15 किलोमीटर प्रति घंटे की गति और आज के 1500 यूटीसी , 12 अक्टूबर पर केंद्रित लेटाओ साथ
अक्षांश 19.1 निकट बंगाल की 2013 उत्तर पश्चिमी कार्यभार सटे WESTCENTRAL खाड़ी
0
एन
और देशांतर 85.0
0
गोपालपुर के करीब ई, . ताजा टिप्पणियों से संकेत मिलता है
भूम बिछल प्रक्रिया अगले एक घंटे के भीतर शुरू कर दिया है और यह पूरा हो जाएगा .
भूम बिछल के समय, अधिकतम निरंतर हवा की गति 200-210 किलोमीटर प्रति घंटे होगी .
सेटेलाइट छायाचित्रण के अनुसार , प्रणाली की तीव्रता टी 6.0 है . तीव्र करने के लिए
बहुत तीव्र संवहन अक्षां 15.0 के उत्तर में देखा जाता है
0
लंबी 88.0 के एन और पश्चिम
0

ओडिशा और उत्तर तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश के साथ . सबसे कम बादल टॉप
तापमान ( सीटीटी ) -78 के बारे में है
0
सी.
डीडब्ल्यूआर विशाखापत्तनम ट्रैकिंग प्रणाली और अक्षांश के रूप में केन्द्र की सूचना दी है
19.1
0
एन
और देशांतर
85.0
0
ई एटी
1500
यू
टी
सी
. गोपालपुर ( 43049 ) अधिकतम 24 सूचना दी है
24.4 एचपीए के घंटे दबाव पतन ,
98 समुद्री मील की अधिकतम हवा की गति से
उत्तरपूर्वी निर्देशन गोपालपुर ( उड़ीसा ) से अधिक बताया गया है .
अधिकतम निरंतर सतही हवा की गति लगभग 105 समुद्री मील होने का अनुमान है
प्रणाली केन्द्र के आसपास 120 समुद्री मील gusting .
समुद्र की स्थिति है
प्रणाली केन्द्र आस अभूतपूर्व . अनुमान केन्द्रीय दबाव है
940 एचपीए के बारे में .
प्रणाली की अनुमानित ट्रैक और तीव्रता तालिका में नीचे दिए गए हैं:
दिनांक / समय ( यूटीसी )
स्थिति
( LAT.
0
एन / लंबी .
0
ई)
निरंतर अधिकतम
सतही हवा की गति ( किमी प्रति घंटे )
श्रेणी
12-10-2013/1500
19.1/85.0
200-210 gusting के लिए 230
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान
12-10-2013/1800
20.2/84.3
200 170-180 gusting
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान
13-10-2013/0000
21.2/84.0
80-90 gusting के लिए 100
चक्रवाती तूफ़ान
13-10-2013/0600
22.0/83.5
50-60 gusting के लिए 70
गहरे अवसाद

भारतीय तटरक्षक के लिए चक्रवात चेतावनी

मुद्दे का समय : 2130 घंटे IST . दिनांक: 2013/12/10
(लाल संदेश )
बुलेटिन नहीं : बॉब 04/2013/34
उप: उत्तर पश्चिम सटे westcentral खाड़ी के ऊपर बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान ‘ PHAILIN ‘
बंगाल तट करीब गोपालपुर तक ( ओडिशा ) पार कर रहा है की
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान ,
PHAILIN
के westcentral और आसपास के उत्तर पश्चिमी खाड़ी के ऊपर
बंगाल में 15 किमी प्रति घंटे की गति के साथ पिछले 3 घंटों के दौरान उत्तर northwestwards ले जाया गया और पर केंद्रित रखना
आज 2030 hrs IST , 12
वें
बंगाल के उत्तर पश्चिमी सटे westcentral खाड़ी पर अक्टूबर 2013
अक्षांश 19.1 पास
0
एन और देशांतर 85.0
0
गोपालपुर के करीब ई, . नवीनतम टिप्पणियों से संकेत मिलता है कि
भूम बिछल प्रक्रिया अगले एक घंटे के भीतर शुरू कर दिया है और इसे पूरा कर लिया जाएगा . भूम बिछल के समय,
अधिकतम निरंतर हवा की गति 200-210 किलोमीटर प्रति घंटे होगी .
प्रणाली की अनुमानित ट्रैक और तीव्रता से नीचे टेबल में दिए गए हैं:
दिनांक / समय (आईएसटी)
स्थिति
( Lat.
0
एन / लांग .
0
ई)
निरंतर अधिकतम सतह
हवा की गति ( किमी प्रति घंटे )
श्रेणी
12-10-2013/2030
19.1/85.0
200-210 gusting को 230
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान
12-10-2013/2330
20.2/84.3
200 से 170-180 gusting
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान
13-10-2013/0530
21.2/84.0
80-90 gusting से 100
चक्रवाती तूफ़ान
13-10-2013/1130
22.0/83.5
50-60 gusting से 70
डीप डिप्रेशन
ओडिशा , आंध्र प्रदेश और पश्चिम बंगाल के लिए चेतावनी
( मैं )
कुछ स्थानों पर बहुत भारी गिरता लिए भारी साथ ज्यादातर स्थानों पर वर्षा और बेहद अलग किया
भारी गिरता ( ≥ 25 सेमी ) के दौरान ओडिशा और उत्तरी तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश में घटित होता है
अगले 48 घंटे . बहुत भारी वर्षा को भारी पृथक पश्चिम के तटीय क्षेत्रों में घटित होता है
अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान बंगाल ..
(दो)
आंधी हवा:
आंधी
हवाओं के साथ 235 के लिए 210-220 किमी प्रति घंटे gusting तक पहुँचने की गति और बंद तटीय
उत्तर तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश और दक्षिण उड़ीसा के जिलों के समय में प्रबल होगा
भूम बिछल . साथ और ओडिशा और उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश तट से दूर समुद्र के राज्य होगा
उल्लेखनीय . यह ऊपर के दौरान पश्चिम बंगाल के तट के साथ और बंद बहुत ही किसी न किसी को किसी न किसी तरह हो जाएगा
अवधि .
(तीन)
तूफान बढ़ने मार्गदर्शन:
3.0-3.5 मीटर की ऊंचाई के साथ तूफान बढ़ने . खगोलीय ज्वार ऊपर
ओडिशा के गंजम , खुर्दा , पुरी और जगतसिंहपुर जिलों के निचले इलाकों पाट और होता
भूम बिछल के दौरान आंध्र प्रदेश के श्रीकाकुलम जिले .
(चार)
ओडिशा और आसपास के उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश में उम्मीद की क्षति:
व्यापक
कच्चे मकानों को नुकसान . पुरानी इमारतों को कुछ नुकसान . बड़े पैमाने पर बिजली का विघटन और
संचार लाइनों . रेल और व्यापक बाढ़ की वजह से सड़क यातायात के विघटन . से संभावित खतरा
मलबे उड़ान . भागने मार्गों की बाढ़. कृषि फसलों को व्यापक क्षति .
( वी )
कार्रवाई का सुझाव दिया है :
मछुआरों को उत्तरी आंध्र के साथ समुद्र में उद्यम के लिए नहीं की सलाह दी है
प्रदेश , ओडिशा और पश्चिम बंगाल के तट . मछली पकड़ने की कार्रवाई की कुल निलंबन . बड़े पैमाने पर
तटीय क्षेत्रों से आबादी की निकासी . चपेट में रेल और सड़क यातायात की कुल निलंबन
क्षेत्रों . प्रभावित इलाकों में लोग घर के भीतर रहने के लिए
भूम बिछल दृष्टिकोण पोस्ट :
यहां तक ​​भूम बिछल के बाद सिस्टम बहुत गंभीर की तीव्रता बनाए रखने की संभावना है
चक्रवाती 6 घंटे के लिए तूफान और धीरे – धीरे बाद के 6 घंटे के समय में एक चक्रवाती तूफान में कमजोर
आंतरिक ओडिशा भर northwestwards घूम रहा है. भारी साथ सबसे अधिक स्थानों पर अपने प्रभाव वर्षा के तहत
कुछ जगहों पर गिर जाता है और बहुत भारी अलग स्थानों पर गिरता ओडिशा खत्म हो जाएगा . पर वर्षा
बहुत भारी फ़ाल्स पृथक भारी के साथ कई जगहों पर भी उत्तर तटीय आंध्र खत्म हो जाएगा
प्रदेश , छत्तीसगढ़ और झारखंड . 100-120 किलोमीटर प्रति घंटे तक पहुंच आंधी हवा की गति भी प्रबल होगा
6 घंटे और इसी अवधि के दौरान ओडिशा ओवर बाद 6 घंटे के लिए 60-70 के लिए .
अगले बुलेटिन 13 , कल की IST 0130 बजे जारी किया जाएगा
अक्तूबर , 2013

टी सी ए सी बुलेटिन
मनाया और बोलचाल ट्रैक
चक्रवात पवन पूर्वानुमान
तूफान बढ़ने भविष्यवाणी मॉडल
चक्रवात के नवीनतम उपग्रह चित्रण
NWP गाइडेंस

चक्रवात Phailin ओडिशा हेल्पलाइन नंबर

ओडिशा राज्य का विमोचन किया गया है प्रभावित चक्रवात के लिए हेल्पलाइन नंबर . कंट्रोल रूम का नंबर लिख लो और साझा द्वारा Lifes सहेजें कृपया . किसी के दौरान और चक्रवात Phailin तबाही के बाद जरूरत होगी के लिए अब संख्या मुद्रित या नीचे कृपया ध्यान दें .

ओडिशा राज्य हेल्पलाइन नंबर

ओडिशा सेंट्रल कंट्रोल रूम 0674-2534177 है

जिला नियंत्रण कक्ष
==========================
मयूरभंज 06792-252759
जाजपुर 06728-222648
गजपति 06815-222943
ढेंकानाल 06762-221376
खुर्दा 06755-220002
क्योंझर 06766-255437
कटक 0671-2507842
गंजम 06811-263978
पुरी 06752-223237
केंद्रपाड़ा 06727-232803
जगतसिंहपुर 06724-220368
बालासोर 06782-26267
भद्रक 06784-251881

अत्यंत खतरनाक उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin के लिए भारत ब्रेसिज़

उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin 10 फुट वृद्धि पैकिंग हो सकता है

उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin , Saffir-सिम्पसन स्केल पर एक वर्ग 5 , उत्तर पूर्व भारतीय तट के करीब पहुंच गया है . भारी तूफान 155 मील प्रति घंटे ( 250 किमी ) की हवाओं कायम है .

द्वारा प्रकाशित किया गया था : डॉ. जेफ मास्टर्स , मौसम भूमिगत

Updated : 5:46 PM GMT 12 अक्टूबर 2013 पर

“बहुत खतरनाक उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin 16 यूटीसी ( दोपहर EDT ) शनिवार, 12 अक्तूबर, 2013 को गोपालपुर ( जनसंख्या 7000 ) के शहर के पास भारत के पूर्वोत्तर तट पर भूम बिछल बनाया गया है . Phailin भूमि के साथ बातचीत के कारण , भूम बिछल में काफी कमजोर था , और चार घंटे भूम बिछल से पहले संयुक्त तूफान चेतावनी केंद्र ( JTWC ) से 140 मील प्रति घंटे हवाओं के साथ एक श्रेणी 4 तूफान दर्जा दिया गया था . आंख के रूप में गोपालपुर में 938 एमबी पर बाहर तली दबाव पर पारित किया है, और शहर आईव़ोल में , 85 मील प्रति घंटे तक gusting , 56 मील प्रति घंटे की निरंतर हवाओं की सूचना दी. एक 938 एमबी दबाव एक उपग्रह हवा और दबाव के आकलन के ” ड्वोरक तकनीक ” का इस्तेमाल करते हुए 140 मील प्रति घंटे हवाओं के साथ एक श्रेणी 4 तूफान में खोजने के लिए क्या उम्मीद है . यह अंतर्देशीय धक्का के रूप में उपग्रह चित्र Phailin की तीव्र गरज गरम और क्षेत्रीय कवरेज में सिकुड़ , और Visakhapanam के बाहर रडार है कि दिखाने के लिए, भारत में भी तूफान की गूँज के एक कमजोर से पता चलता है . Phailin के रूप में माइक्रोवेव उपग्रह उपकरणों द्वारा अनुमानित प्रति घंटे एक इंच से अधिक की मूसलाधार बारिश ला रहा है .

चित्रा 1 . Phailin के रडार छवि भूम बिछल पर . छवि क्रेडिट : आईएमडी .

चित्रा 2 . 12 अक्टूबर 2013 को लगभग 07:30 यूटीसी पर लिया उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin के MODIS उपग्रह छवि , . समय, Phailin 150 मील प्रति घंटे की हवाओं के साथ एक शीर्ष अंत श्रेणी 4 तूफान था . छवि क्रेडिट : नासा .

Phailin से नुकसान
Phailin महान 1999 ओडिशा चक्रवात के बाद से , चौदह वर्षों में भारत को प्रभावित करने के लिए सबसे मजबूत उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात है . यही कारण है कि तूफान में 155 मील प्रति घंटे की अधिकतम निरंतर हवाओं के साथ मारा , और तट के लिए 5.9 मीटर ( 19 फुट) के एक तूफान बढ़ने लाया . यह ( . कुछ हद तक कमजोर हालांकि , शायद 20 हवाओं के साथ – 30 मील प्रति घंटे कम ) 1999 चक्रवात से क्षेत्रीय सीमा में बड़ा है क्योंकि Phailin , तट के लिए एक समान आकार के तूफान बढ़ने ड्राइव करने में सक्षम होना चाहिए Phailin के तूफान बढ़ने और श्रेणी 3 से 4 हवाओं के पास आपत्तिजनक आईव़ोल तट पर आता है जहां तट से 50 मील व्यापक कटी हुई घास को नुकसान , और सही करने के लिए प्रेरित करेगा . तूफान कैटरीना Phailin से भूम बिछल में कमजोर था , लेकिन कैटरीना कैटरीना तूफान बढ़ने और अधिक विनाशकारी Phailin का होगा से कर रही है, एक बहुत बड़े क्षेत्र को कवर किया है कि तूफान बल हवाओं था . मैं Phailin से मुख्य खतरा अपनी हवाओं से होगा. मैं विशेष रूप से ब्रह्मपुर ( आबादी 350,000 ) , भारत के सबसे बड़े 58 वें शहर के शहर में Phailin की हवा क्षति क्षमता के बारे में चिंतित हूँ . ब्रह्मपुर दस मील की दूरी पर अंतर्देशीय निहित है , और संभावना कई घंटे के लिए निरंतर तूफान बल हवाओं का अनुभव होगा . Phailin के बाढ़ संभावित 6 की वर्षा मात्रा के रूप में एक और बड़ी चिंता का विषय है – 12 इंच जीवन के लिए खतरा फ्लैश बाढ़ ट्रिगर , अंतर्देशीय 100 मील की दूरी पर एक कटी हुई घास के साथ गिर जाएगी .

Phailin कैसे मजबूत था ?
प्रश्न अमेरिका संयुक्त तूफान चेतावनी केंद्र ( JTWC ) की तुलना में काफी कम थे जो भारतीय मौसम विज्ञान विभाग (आईएमडी ) Phailin की ताकत का आकलन, के बारे में उठाया गया है . दोनों केंद्रों उपग्रह अनुमान के बजाय हवाओं के प्रत्यक्ष माप का उपयोग , तो हम सही है , जो केंद्र में पता नहीं है . यानी , उपग्रह चित्रण पर ही उपस्थिति ( मतभेद के इस चार्ट को देखने प्रशांत में से अटलांटिक में कमजोर हो जाएगा के साथ एक तूफान – यह एक ही तकनीक का उपयोग कर उपग्रह अनुमान अटलांटिक और प्रशांत महासागरों के लिए अलग परिणाम दे कि सच है. ) यह इस रूप में अच्छी तरह से हिंद महासागर में मामला है कि हो सकता है. आईएमडी उनके उपग्रह ताकत का अनुमान कोशिश करते हैं और जांच करने के लिए कुछ बोया डेटा पर देखा गया है , लेकिन उच्च अंत उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवातों मैं हम वास्तव में हिंद महासागर चक्रवात में एक तूफान के रूप में एक ही हवाओं है या नहीं, पता शक है कि हिंद महासागर में काफी असामान्य हैं एक ही उपग्रह हस्ताक्षर के साथ अटलांटिक . विचार करने के लिए एक और बात आईएमडी उनके परामर्श के लिए 10 मिनट की औसत हवाओं का उपयोग करता है , और JTWC 1 मिनट का उपयोग करता है , आईएमडी परामर्श में हवाओं अब औसत अवधि के कारण कम से कम 6 % से कम हो जाएगा . भारत की अपनी तूफान शिकारी विमान था , तो यह समस्या को साफ किया जा सकता है, अमेरिकी वायु सेना की तरह एक सी -130 विमान उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवातों में उड़ान भरने और वास्तविक हवाओं का माप लेने के लिए उपयोग करता हो रही है भारत के बारे में कुछ उच्च स्तरीय विचार विमर्श किया गया है .

चित्रा 3 . 12 अक्टूबर 2013 को लगभग 02:30 यूटीसी पर लिया आंधी नारी के MODIS उपग्रह छवि , . समय, नारी 90 मील प्रति घंटे की हवाओं के साथ एक श्रेणी 1 तूफान था . छवि क्रेडिट : नासा .

“- डॉ. जेफ मास्टर्स – भूमिगत मौसम

संयुक्त तूफान चेतावनी केंद्र ( JTWC )

गूगल अर्थ ग्राफिक ओवरले

WTIO31 PGTW 122100

क / GENADMIN / संयुक्त आंधी WRNCEN पर्ल हार्बर हाई / /
Subj / उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात 02B ( PHAILIN ) चेतावनी एन.आर. 016 / /
RMKS /
1 . उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात 02B ( PHAILIN ) चेतावनी एन.आर. 016
NORTHIO में 01 सक्रिय उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात
अधिकतम एक मिनट के औसत के आधार पर हवाओं निरंतर
खुले पानी में मान्य पवन radii ही

चेतावनी की स्थिति:
121800Z — निकट 19.6N 84.9E
आंदोलन पिछले छह घंटे – 10 टी एस एटी 335 डिग्री
030 समुद्री मील भीतर करने के लिए सही स्थिति
स्थिति उपग्रह द्वारा स्थित सेंटर पर आधारित
वर्तमान पवन वितरण :
अधिकतम निरंतर हवाओं – 100 के.टी. , gusts 125 के.टी.
खुले पानी में मान्य पवन radii ही
भूमि पर एक महत्वपूर्ण उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात के रूप में dissipating
19.6N 84.9E : मंज़ूर दोहराएँ

पूर्वानुमान :
पर मान्य 12 घंटे , :
130600Z — 21.2N 84.0E
065 के.टी. , gusts 080 के.टी. – मैक्स हवाओं निरंतर
खुले पानी में मान्य पवन radii ही
भूमि पर एक महत्वपूर्ण उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात के रूप में dissipating
24 मानव संसाधन मंज़ूर सदिश : 335 डीईजी / 08 KTS

पर मान्य 24 घंटे , :
131800Z — 22.7N 83.3E
अधिकतम निरंतर हवाओं – 030 के.टी. , gusts 040 के.टी.
खुले पानी में मान्य पवन radii ही
भूमि पर एक महत्वपूर्ण उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात के रूप में व्यस्त

टिप्पणी:
20.0N 84.7E निकट 122100Z स्थिति .
उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात 02B ( PHAILIN ) , लगभग 266 समुद्री मील दूर स्थित
कोलकाता, भारत के दक्षिण पश्चिम उत्तर उत्तर – पच्छिम नज़र रखी है
पिछले छह घंटे से अधिक 10 समुद्री मील में . एनिमेटेड बढ़ाया अवरक्त
उपग्रह चित्रण टीसी 02B भूम बिछल बनाया पता चलता है कि
लगभग 135 समुद्री मील दूर VISAKHPATNAM , भारत के पूर्वोत्तर , और
जल्दी भूमि के कारण संवहनी संगठन खोने के लिए शुरू
प्रभाव . टीसी 02B भारत में उत्तर पश्चिमी आगे ट्रैक करने के लिए पूर्वानुमान
और देश के घर्षण प्रभाव के रूप में खराब जारी
इसके अलावा एक के रूप में अपनी लंपटता के लिए अग्रणी प्रणाली इरोड
अगले 24 घंटों के भीतर महत्वपूर्ण उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात . यह वह जगह है
संयुक्त आंधी WRNCEN मोती से इस प्रणाली को अंतिम चेतावनी
बंदरगाह हाई . प्रणाली निकट के संकेत के लिए नजर रखी जाएगी
पुनर्जनन . / /
NNNN

टीएसआर लॉगऑन हिंद महासागर : 12 अक्टूबर को जारी किए तूफान चेतावनी , 2013 12:00 GMT

वर्तमान में 18.7 एन 85.3 ई निकट स्थित सुपर चक्रवाती तूफान PHAILIN ( 02B ) दिए नेतृत्व समय (ओं ) पर निम्न संभावना (ओं ) के लिए भूमि हड़ताल करने के लिए पूर्वानुमान है :

रेड अलर्ट देश (ओं ) या प्रांत (ओं )
भारत
कैट 1 के लिए संभावना या इसके बाद के 12 घंटे के भीतर 95 % है
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 100 % है
रेड अलर्ट सिटी (एस) और टाउन (ओं )
ब्रह्मपुर ( 19.3 एन, 84.9 ई)
ऊपर कैट 1 या के लिए संभावना 12 घंटे के भीतर 90 % है
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 100 % है

पीला चेतावनी सिटी (एस) और टाउन (ओं )
पुरी ( 19.8 एन, 85.9 ई)
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 100 % है
नौपाडा ( 18.6 एन, 84.2 ई)
कैट 1 के लिए संभावना या इसके बाद के 12 घंटे के भीतर 20 % है
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 100 % है
कटक ( 20.5 एन, 85.9 ई)
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 85% है
विशाखापट्टनम (17.8 एन, 83.3 ई)
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 55 % है

ध्यान दें कि
रेड अलर्ट ( गंभीर ) कैट 1 या % 31 के बीच और 100 % संभावना के लिए ऊपर है .
पीला चेतावनी ( बुलंद ) कैट 1 या ऊपर से 10 % और 30 % संभावना है , या टीएस के बीच ऊपर 50 % संभावना है .
कैट 1 कम से कम 74 मील प्रति घंटे की तेज चक्रवाती तूफान शक्ति हवाओं का मतलब है , 119 किमी / घंटा या 64 समुद्री मील 1 मिनट निरंतर.
टीएस कम से कम 39 मील प्रति घंटे की उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान शक्ति हवाओं का मतलब है , 63 किमी / घंटा या 34 समुद्री मील 1 मिनट निरंतर.

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तूफान ट्रैकर मानचित्र

टीएसआर तूफान ट्रैकर मानचित्र अतीत और पूर्वानुमान ट्रैक : उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान दो: 48 घंटे में तूफान केन्द्रित ज़ूम नेतृत्व

अन्य रिपोर्ट

चक्रवात Phailin भारत में भूम बिछल बनाता है

बीबीसी 12 अक्टूबर 2013 अंतिम 20:14 BST ( 1914Z जीएमटी / यूटीसी ) में अद्यतन

बीबीसी के संजय मजुमदार : ” हवाओं की तीव्रता मजबूत हो गया है ”

मुख्य कहानी पढ़ने जारी
संबंधित आलेख

चक्रवात Phailin : तस्वीरों में
एनिमेटेड गाइड : तूफान
बीबीसी मौसम चक्रवात अद्यतन देखो

के रूप में कई 500.000 के रूप में लोगों को अपने घरों से पलायन करने के लिए मजबूर कर दिया है कि एक विशाल चक्रवात पूर्वी भारत में भूम बिछल बनाया गया है .

चक्रवात Phailin बारे में 21:15 ( 15:45 जीएमटी) में गोपालपुर , उड़ीसा , निकट तट मारा हवाओं 200 किमी / घंटा ( 125mph ) में मापा गया.

अधिकारियों व्यापक क्षति हो जाने की उम्मीद थी कि कम से कम 3 मीटर ( 10ft ) के एक तूफान बढ़ने की भविष्यवाणी की थी .

अधिकारियों का कहना है कि वे बेहतर एक चक्रवात उड़ीसा में हजारों लोगों के मारे गए जब 1999 में से तैयार कर रहे हैं.

चक्रवात Phailin ‘ बहुत गंभीर ‘ के रूप में वर्गीकृत है, और भारत के मौसम विज्ञान कार्यालय के सिर , एलएस राठौड़ , यह ताकत खोने से पहले छह घंटे के लिए उस श्रेणी में रहेगा कहा गया है .

मुख्य कहानी पढ़ने जारी
घटनास्थल पर
एंड्रयू उत्तर बीबीसी संवाददाता, उड़ीसा

हम ब्रह्मपुर में पहुंचे , सिर्फ अंतर्देशीय चक्रवात पहली तट मारा था , जहां से हम भविष्य सूचक तबाही का एक दृश्य के साथ मिले थे .

शहर के कुल अंधेरे में था , हमारे वाहन रोशन की हेडलाइट्स पेड़ और सड़कों को अवरुद्ध बिजली लाइनों गिराया .

स्टोर के संकेत और अन्य मलबे शक्तिशाली तूफान आमंत्रित गुट द्वारा हवा में उच्च खड़ा किया जा रहा था. लोगों को इस सप्ताह के अंत का जश्न मनाने के कारण थे कि एक प्रमुख हिंदू त्योहार के लिए भव्य सजावट मुख्य सड़क भर में बिखरे हुए थे .

ज्यादातर दुकानों अब खाली निवासियों के सैकड़ों के साथ , बंद कर रहे हैं . कई सड़कों पर पहले से ही पानी भर रहे हैं , और आगे भारी बारिश की उम्मीद है के रूप में यह सिर्फ शुरुआत हो सकती है.

कई gusts के अपने मुख्य खिड़कियों में फूंका बाद हमारे होटल की लॉबी अब , गिलास के साथ कवर किया जाता है . चक्रवात इस शहर और भारतीय समुद्र तट के एक विशाल पट्टी के माध्यम से sweeps के रूप में यह एक भयानक रात होने के लिए तैयार दिखता है.

तूफान की आंख 10-15 किमी / घंटा ( 6 9mph ) पर चल रहा था , उन्होंने कहा.

बीबीसी के संजय मजुमदार भारी बारिश की सूचना दी और चक्रवात के रूप में गोपालपुर दंड उच्च हवाओं भूम बिछल बनाया .

‘ Apocalyptic तबाही ‘

तूफान के पेड़ और सड़क लक्षण फट , और कुछ क्षेत्रों में बिजली की आपूर्ति में कटौती की है . खिड़की के शीशे को तोड़ दिया जा रहा है और छतों से उड़ा जा रहा है की रिपोर्ट नहीं थे .

पांच लोगों की मृत्यु भारतीय मीडिया द्वारा चक्रवात से जुड़े थे , चार एक मकान ढहने पर गिरने के पेड़ और एक के लिए जिम्मेदार ठहराया .

एक अन्य बीबीसी संवाददाता एंड्रयू नॉर्थ , बस अंतर्देशीय चक्रवात तट पर पहुंच गया , जहां से ब्रह्मपुर में apocalyptic तबाही का एक दृश्य की बात की थी .

स्टोर के संकेत और अन्य मलबे तूफान gusts और एक प्रमुख हिंदू त्योहार के लिए भव्य सजावट से हवा में उच्च खड़ा किया जा रहा था मुख्य सड़क पर बिखरे हुए थे .

अधिकारियों का कहना है कि पहले कोई भी उड़ीसा और आंध्र प्रदेश राज्यों के तट के साथ मिट्टी और फूस के घरों में रहने की अनुमति दी जाएगी कि कहा गया था, लेकिन कुछ निवासियों वे लगा रहना चाहता था.

” कई लोगों को स्थानांतरित करने के लिए आश्वस्त किया था इनकार कर दिया , और कई बार पुलिस जबरदस्ती सुरक्षित स्थानों के लिए उन्हें ले जाने के लिए किया था , ” गृह मंत्री सुशील कुमार शिंदे ने कहा .

सेना आपात स्थिति और राहत कार्यों के लिए स्टैंडबाय पर रखा गया है . हेलीकाप्टर और भोजन संकुल तूफान प्रभावित क्षेत्रों में छोड़ा जा करने के लिए तैयार थे .

चक्रवात Phailin से शरण की मांग भारतीय ग्रामीणों को , 12 अक्टूबर 2013 चक्रवात Phailin 14 साल के लिए इस क्षेत्र में सबसे बड़ा तूफान के रूप में वर्णित है

500,000 लोगों के रूप में कई के रूप में भुवनेश्वर, 12 अक्टूबर, 2013 के पास चक्रवात Phailin से पनाह लोग तूफान आश्रयों के लिए कई अपने घरों को छोड़ दिया है

विशाखापट्टनम जिले , आंध्र प्रदेश , भारत , 12 अक्टूबर 2013 तूफान में एक मछली पकड़ने के बंदरगाह में तूफान क्षति से मलबा तटीय क्षेत्रों को व्यापक क्षति हो जाने की उम्मीद थी

एक सुपर चक्रवात उड़ीसा मारा जब भारतीय ग्रामीणों अक्टूबर 2013 अधिकारियों वे अब बेहतर 1999 में से तैयार कर रहे हैं कहने के गंजम जिले , भुवनेश्वर के पूर्व , 12 में एक आश्रय , पर भोजन दिया जाता है

चक्रवात भूम बिछल बनाया घंटे पहले यह बंगाल की खाड़ी के ऊपर 240 किमी / घंटा ( 150mph ) की बयार पैदा किया गया था . खाली उन में से अधिकांश उड़ीसा राज्य में थे .

सुशांत साहू , उड़ीसा के राज्य की राजधानी भुवनेश्वर के एक निवासी , यह सुबह के बाद से वहां रह रहा था , और सड़कों खाली थे कि बीबीसी को बताया .

“हम बिजली नहीं है , यह अभी और बहुत गंभीर बहुत अंधेरा है , ” उन्होंने कहा .

” मुझे लगता है कि सूखे भोजन और मोमबत्तियों है . स्थानीय सरकार हर कोई तैयार हो रही है और लोगों का ख्याल रखने में अच्छा कर रहा है.”

भारत के पूर्वी तट और बांग्लादेश नियमित कि अप्रैल और नवंबर के बीच चक्रवाती तूफान से प्रभावित हैं कारण होने वाली मौतों और संपत्ति को व्यापक क्षति .

दिसंबर 2011 में , चक्रवात ठाणे दर्जनों लोगों की मौत हो गई , तमिलनाडु के दक्षिणी राज्य मारा .

भारत के मानचित्र

नौवहन

हिंद महासागर पूर्वानुमान प्रणाली ( INDOFOS )

उच्च पवन वेव चेतावनी

अंक तिथि : 2013/12/10 क्षेत्र: उड़ीसा

टिप्पणियों के साथ लहर पूर्वानुमान के comparisions : गोपालपुर
1600 बजे ( अवधि 1730 बजे , 2013/12/10 को 1730 बजे , 14-10-2013 के लिए वैध ) : इस मुद्दे का समय

यह ओडिशा तट से दूर लहर की स्थिति बहुत कठिन हो (> 4.0m ) और 12 अक्टूबर 2013 की शाम के समय से धीरे – धीरे काफी ज्यादा हो जाएगा कि पूर्वानुमानित है . लहर ऊंचाई 12 अक्टूबर 2013 से 2330 बजे के दौरान गोपालपुर ( गंजाम जिले ) और Saharabedi ( जगतसिंहपुर जिला ) के बीच अधिक से अधिक ( लगभग 8.5 मीटर) होने का अनुमान है . प्रफुल्लित लहर ऊंचाइयों 5.0m को 3.0 की रेंज में भिन्नता है. वर्तमान गति 100-150 सेमी / सेक के बीच बदलती हैं.

कुछ स्थानों पर बहुत भारी गिरता तक भारी और पृथक अत्यंत भारी गिर जाता है ? ( 25 सेमी ) के साथ सबसे अधिक स्थानों पर वर्षा अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान ओडिशा में घटित होगा .

ओडिशा के तटीय जिलों के साथ और बंद 235 के लिए 210-220 किमी प्रति घंटे gusting तक पहुँचने आंधी हवाओं की गति भूम बिछल के समय में प्रबल होगा .

3.0-3.5 मीटर की ऊंचाई के साथ तूफान बढ़ने . खगोलीय ज्वार ऊपर भूम बिछल दौरान गंजम , खुर्दा , पुरी और ओडिशा के जगतसिंहपुर जिलों के निचले इलाकों पाट देना होगा .

ओडिशा तट के साथ समुद्र में मछुआरों बाहर तट पर लौटने की सलाह दी है .

मछुआरों को अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान समुद्र में उद्यम के लिए नहीं की सलाह दी है
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गोपालपुर

उच्च पवन वेव चेतावनी

अंक तिथि : 2013/12/10 क्षेत्र: आंध्र प्रदेश

टिप्पणियों के साथ लहर पूर्वानुमान के comparisions : विजाग
1600 बजे ( अवधि 1730 बजे , 2013/12/10 को 1730 बजे , 14-10-2013 के लिए वैध ) : इस मुद्दे का समय

यह उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश से दूर समुद्र में लहर की स्थिति बहुत कठिन होगा कि पूर्वानुमानित (> 4.0 मीटर) और 12 अक्टूबर 2013 को शाम के समय के दौरान काफी ज्यादा हो जाएगा . लहर ऊंचाई 12 अक्टूबर से 1730 बजे के दौरान अधिकतम लगभग 7.0 बरुवा के बीच मीटर ( श्रीकाकुलम जिला ) और Ichchapuram ( श्रीकाकुलम जिला ) , 2013 होने का अनुमान है . प्रफुल्लित लहर ऊंचाइयों 5.0m को 3.0 की रेंज में भिन्नता है. वर्तमान गति 100-150 सेमी / सेक के बीच बदलती हैं.

कुछ स्थानों पर बहुत भारी गिरता तक भारी और पृथक अत्यंत भारी गिर जाता है ? ( 25 सेमी ) के साथ सबसे अधिक स्थानों पर वर्षा अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान उत्तर तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश में घटित होता है .

उत्तर तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश के तटीय जिलों के साथ और बंद 235 के लिए 210-220 किमी प्रति घंटे gusting तक पहुँचने आंधी हवाओं की गति भूम बिछल के समय में प्रबल होगा .

3.0-3.5 मीटर की ऊंचाई के साथ तूफान बढ़ने . खगोलीय ज्वार ऊपर भूम बिछल के दौरान आंध्र प्रदेश के श्रीकाकुलम जिले के निचले क्षेत्रों पाट देना होगा .

उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश तट के साथ समुद्र में मछुआरों बाहर तट पर लौटने की सलाह दी है . मछुआरों को अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान समुद्र में उद्यम के लिए नहीं की सलाह दी है .
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बरुवा

उच्च पवन वेव चेतावनी

अंक तिथि : 2013/12/10 क्षेत्र: पश्चिम बंगाल
1600 बजे ( अवधि 1730 बजे , 2013/12/10 को 1730 बजे , 14-10-2013 के लिए वैध ) : इस मुद्दे का समय

उक्त अवधि के दौरान पश्चिम बंगाल के तट पर (> 4.0 मीटर) बहुत मोटा करने के लिए – यह लहर की स्थिति ( 4.0m 2.5 मीटर) किसी न किसी तरह किया जाएगा कि पूर्वानुमानित है . लहर ऊंचाई 12 अक्टूबर 2013 की शाम के समय के दौरान दीघा ( पूर्वी मिदनापुर जिला ) और Fraserganj ( दक्षिण 24 परगना जिला ) के बीच ( लगभग 5.0 मीटर) अधिकतम होने का अनुमान है . प्रफुल्लित लहर ऊंचाइयों 4.0m को 3.0 की रेंज में भिन्नता है. वर्तमान गति 100 और 130 सेमी / सेक के बीच बदलती हैं.

बहुत भारी वर्षा को भारी पृथक 12 अक्टूबर की दोपहर से शुरू पश्चिम बंगाल के तटीय क्षेत्रों में घटित होता है .

पश्चिम बंगाल के तट के साथ समुद्र में मछुआरों बाहर तट पर लौटने की सलाह दी है . मछुआरों को अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान समुद्र में उद्यम के लिए नहीं की सलाह दी है .
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सागर – सड़क

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AVHRR छवि

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1231

WTIN01 DEMS 121231
मुलाकात के लिए नौवहन बुलेटिन . भूमध्य रेखा के क्षेत्र आठवीं उत्तर
2013/12/10 के 1200 यूटीसी से 12 घंटे के लिए मान्य है.
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान , WESTCENTRAL और कार्यभार PHAILIN
बंगाल के आसपास के उत्तर पश्चिमी खाड़ी NORTHWESTWARDS चले गए और
आज के 1430 बजे केंद्रित IST झूठ , 12 वीं अक्टूबर 2013
उत्तर पश्चिम और बंगाल के निकटवर्ती पश्चिम मध्य खाड़ी के ऊपर
अक्षां के आधे से एक डिग्री के भीतर . 18.5 डीईजी एन और देशांतर 85.5 डीईजी ई,
90 किमी के बारे में गोपालपुर के दक्षिण पूर्व में 120 किलोमीटर पूर्वी उत्तर पूर्व
KALINGAPATNAM और पारादीप में 220 किमी दक्षिण पश्चिम . यह कदम होगा
NORTHWESTWARDS और पार उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश और ओडिशा तटों
KALINGAPATNAM और पारादीप के बीच , गोपालपुर ( ओडिशा ) के करीब
टुडे यानी की शाम तक एक बहुत ही गंभीर के रूप में 12 अक्टूबर , 2013
210-220 किलोमीटर प्रति घंटे की एक अधिकतम निरंतर हवा की गति के साथ चक्रवाती तूफान
240 किमी प्रति gusting .
———————-
नोट : अगले विशेष बुलेटिन पर 0100 यूटीसी पर उत्पन्न करेगा
नियमित दो दैनिक बुलेटिन के अलावा 2013/10/12 दिनांकित.
———————
ड्यूटी अधिकारी =

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053
FQIN01 DEMS 120053
मुलाकात के लिए नौवहन बुलेटिन . भूमध्य रेखा के क्षेत्र आठवीं उत्तर
2013/12/10 के 0100 यूटीसी से 12 घंटे के लिए मान्य है.
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान , WESTCENTRAL कार्यभार PHAILIN
और बंगाल के निकटवर्ती EASTCENTRAL खाड़ी पश्चिम NORTHWESTWARDS चले गए
0230 बजे केंद्रित पिछले 6 घंटे और झूठ के दौरान 12 अक्टूबर की IST
बंगाल की WESTCENTRAL और आसपास EASTCENTRAL खाड़ी के ऊपर 2013
अक्षांश 16.9 डिग्री उत्तर और देशांतर के आधे ADEGREE भीतर
पारादीप के 87.0 डीईजी ई, 375 किलोमीटर दक्षिण , दक्षिण पूर्व , 345 किलोमीटर दक्षिण पूर्व
गोपालपुर , और 340 किलोमीटर KALINGAPATNAM के पूर्वी दक्षिण पूर्व की ( . )
आईटी NORTHWESTWARDS ले जाएँ और उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश क्रॉस और होगा
के करीब KALINGAPATNAM और पारादीप के बीच ओडिशा तटों ,
टुडे यानी की शाम तक गोपालपुर ( ओडिशा ) 12 अक्टूबर , 2013
एक अधिकतम निरंतर हवा की गति के साथ एक बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान के रूप में
210-220 किमी प्रति घंटे ( . ) = के

अंत

GUjarati (Translated by Google)

ભારત / બંગાળની ખાડી : 10 નોટ પર NNW ખસેડવાની ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત ( VSCS/CAT3-SS ) 02B / Phailin 122100Z NR 20.0N 84.7E , ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ અને Odisha કોસ્ટ ( IMD ) માટે ( JTWC ) ચક્રવાત ચેતવણી – 121013 2100z

ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત ( અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન ) 02B (બે ) / Phailin – પાંચ Saffir – સિમ્પસન સ્કેલ પર કેટેગરી 3

ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ માટે ચક્રવાત ચેતવણી
અને Odisha કોસ્ટ . (IMD)

ચક્રવાત Phailin વિશે 21:15 ( 15:45 જીએમટી) પર ગોપાલપુરમાં , ઓરિસ્સા રાજ્ય, નજીક દરીયાકિનારે હિટ

બીબીસી ન્યૂઝ – ઓછામાં ઓછા 3M ( 10ft ) ની આગાહી તોફાનમાં વ્યાપક નુકસાન થવાની ધારણા

ડૉ જેફ સ્નાતકોત્તર, હવામાન અંડરગ્રાઉન્ડ – ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin 10 ફુટ સર્જ પેકિંગ કરી શકાઈ

(હિન્દી અને ગુજરાતી અનુવાદ માટે નીચે સ્ક્રોલ કરો ) ( हिंदी और गुजराती अनुवाद के लिए नीचे स्क्रॉल )
( હિન્દી અને ગુજરાતી અનુવાદ માટે નીચે સ્ક્રોલ કરો )

( છબી: wunderground.com ) 5 દિવસનું અનુમાન (સ્રોત માટે ઇમેજ ક્લિક કરો)

( છબી: wunderground.com ) સેટેલાઈટ (સ્રોત માટે ઇમેજ ક્લિક કરો)

( છબી: IMD) વિશાખાપટ્ટનમ ડોપ્લર રડાર ( સ્રોત માટે ઇમેજ ક્લિક કરો)

RSMC – ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાતો નવી દિલ્હી – ભારત

( છબી: IMD)

ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત એડવાઇઝરી
RSMC – ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાતો , નવી દિલ્હી
ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય તોફાન
‘ PHAILIN ‘
એડવાઇઝરી નં. વીસ six 12 1700 UTC એ બહાર પાડેલી
ટીએચ
ઓક્ટોબર 2013 12 1500 UTC ચાર્ટ પર આધારિત
ટીએચ
ઓક્ટોબર 2013 .
આ ખૂબ જ તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન ,
PHAILIN
કુલ સ્કોર WESTCENTRAL અને આસપાસના
બંગાળની NORTHWEST BAY ભૂતકાળનો 3 કલાક દરમિયાન ઉત્તર NORTHWESTWARDS ખસેડવામાં
15 KMPH ઝડપ અને આજે 1500 UTC , 12 ઓક્ટોબર એટી CENTRED મૂકે સાથે
અક્ષાંશ 19.1 પાસેની બંગાળની 2013 NORTHWEST બોલ આસપાસના WESTCENTRAL BAY
0
એન
અને રેખાંશ 85,0
0
ગોપાલપુરમાં નજીક ઇ . નવા અવલોકનો સૂચવે છે કે
જમીન પર આવતી PROCESS આગામી એક કલાક અંદર શરૂ કરી છે અને તે પૂર્ણ થશે.
જમીન પર આવતી સમયે , મહત્તમ લગાતાર પવનની ઝડપ 200-210 KMPH આવશે.
સેટેલાઇટ IMAGERIES અનુસાર , સિસ્ટમ ની તીવ્રતા 6.0 ટી છે. માટે તીવ્ર
એકદમ તીવ્ર સંવહન LAT 15.0 ઉત્તર જોવામાં આવે છે
0
LONG 88.0 ઓફ એન અને પશ્ચિમ
0

Odisha અને ઉત્તર તટીય આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ સાથે . સૌથી નીચો CLOUD ટોચ
તાપમાન ( CTT ) -78 વિશે છે
0
સી
DWR વિશાખાપટ્ટનમ સિસ્ટમ ટ્રેકીંગ અને અક્ષાંશ જેમ CENTRE અહેવાલ છે
19.1
0
એન
અને રેખાંશ
85,0
0
ઇ એટી
1500
યુ
ટી
સી
. ગોપાલપુરમાં ( 43049 ) વધુમાં 24 અહેવાલ આપ્યો
24.4 HPA કલાકની દબાણ વિકેટ ,
98 નોટ્સ મહત્તમ પવનની ઝડપ FROM
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ગોપાલપુરમાં ( Odisha ) પર જાણ કરવામાં આવી છે .
MAXIMUM લગાતાર SURFACE પવનની ઝડપ 105 વિશે નોટ્સ હોવાનો અંદાજ છે
સિસ્ટમ સેન્ટર આસપાસ 120 કિલોનોટીકલ GUSTING .
દરિયાની સ્થિતિ છે
સિસ્ટમ સેન્ટર આસપાસ અસાધારણ . અંદાજિત CENTRAL દબાણ છે
940 HPA વિશે.
સિસ્ટમ અંદાજિત ટ્રેક અને તીવ્રતા નીચેના ટેબલ માં આપવામાં આવે છે :
તારીખ / સમય (UTC )
POSITION
( LAT.
0
N / LONG .
0
ઇ)
લગાતાર MAXIMUM
SURFACE પવનની ઝડપ ( KMPH )
CATEGORY
12-10-2013/1500
19.1/85.0
200-210 GUSTING સુધી 230
અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
12-10-2013/1800
20.2/84.3
200 થી 170-180 GUSTING
અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
13-10-2013/0000
21.2/84.0
80-90 GUSTING 100
ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
13-10-2013/0600
22.0/83.5
50-60 GUSTING 70
ડીપ ડિપ્રેશન

ભારતીય કોસ્ટ માટે ચક્રવાત ચેતવણી

મુદ્દો સમયનો : 2130 કલાક IST . તારીખ: 12-10-2013
(Red સંદેશ )
બુલેટિન નંબર: બીઓબી 04/2013/34
સબ : ઉત્તરપશ્ચિમ આસપાસના westcentral ખાડી પર અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન ‘ PHAILIN ‘
બંગાળ કિનારે બંધ ગોપાલપુરમાં માટે ( Odisha ) પાર છે
આ ખૂબ જ તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન ,
PHAILIN
ના westcentral અને આસપાસના ઉત્તરપશ્ચિમ બે ઉપર
બંગાળ 15 kmph એક ઝડપ સાથે છેલ્લા 3 કલાક દરમિયાન ઉત્તર northwestwards ખસેડવામાં અને કેન્દ્રમાં મૂકે
આજે 2030 hrs IST , 12
મી
બંગાળ ઉત્તરપશ્ચિમે આસપાસના westcentral ખાડી પર ઓક્ટોબર 2013
અક્ષાંશ 19.1 નજીક
0
N અને રેખાંશ 85,0
0
ગોપાલપુરમાં નજીક ઇ . તાજેતરના અવલોકનો સૂચવે છે કે
જમીન પર આવતી પ્રક્રિયા આગામી એક કલાક અંદર શરૂ કરી છે અને તે પૂર્ણ થશે. જમીન પર આવતી વખતે ,
વધુમાં સતત પવનની ઝડપ 200-210 kmph હશે.
સિસ્ટમ અંદાજિત ટ્રેક અને તીવ્રતા નીચે કોષ્ટક આપવામાં આવે છે:
તારીખ / સમય ( IST )
સ્થિતિ
( Lat.
0
N / લોંગ.
0
ઇ)
સતત મહત્તમ સપાટી
પવનની ઝડપ ( kmph )
વર્ગ
12-10-2013/2030
19.1/85.0
200-210 gusting માટે 230
અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
12-10-2013/2330
20.2/84.3
200 થી 170-180 gusting
અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
13-10-2013/0530
21.2/84.0
80-90 gusting 100
ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
13-10-2013/1130
22.0/83.5
50-60 gusting 70
ડીપ ડિપ્રેશન
Odisha , આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ અને પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ માટે ચેતવણી
(i)
થોડા સ્થળોએ ભારે ધોધ માટે ભારે સાથે સૌથી સ્થળોએ વરસાદ અને અત્યંત એકલતા
ભારે ધોધ ( ≥ 25 સે.મી. ) દરમિયાન Odisha અને ઉત્તર તટીય આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે
આગામી 48 કલાક . ભારે વરસાદ માટે ભારે અલગ વેસ્ટ દરિયાકાંઠાના વિસ્તારોમાં પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે
આગામી 48 કલાક દરમિયાન બંગાળમાં ..
(ર)
ગેલ પવન:
આંધી
પવન સાથે 235 થી 210-220 kmph gusting પહોંચ્યા ઝડપ અને બંધ દરિયાકાંઠાના
ઉત્તર તટીય આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ અને દક્ષિણ Odisha જિલ્લાઓ સમયે જીતવું હોત
જમીન પર આવતી . સાથે અને Odisha અને ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ કિનારે બોલ સમુદ્ર રાજ્ય હશે
અસાધારણ . તે ઉપર દરમિયાન પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ કિનારા અને બંધ ખૂબ રફ માટે ખરબચડી હશે
સમયગાળો .
(iii)
તોફાનમાં માર્ગદર્શન :
3.0 થી 3.5 મીટર ઊંચાઇ સાથે તોફાનમાં . ખગોળીય ભરતી ઉપર
Odisha ના Ganjam , ખુર્દા , પુરી અને Jagatsinghpur જિલ્લાઓમાં નીચા બોલતી વિસ્તારોમાં રેલમછેલ કરવી અને કરશે
જમીન પર આવતી વખતે આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ Srikakulam ડિસ્ટ્રિક્ટ.
(iv)
Odisha અને આસપાસના ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ પર અપેક્ષા નુકસાન :
વ્યાપક
kutcha ઘરો નુકસાન. જૂના મકાનો માટે અમુક નુકસાન. મોટા પાયે વીજ વિક્ષેપ અને
સંચાર રેખાઓ. રેલ અને વ્યાપક પૂર કારણે રોડ ટ્રાફિક વિક્ષેપ. ના સંભવિત ખતરો
ભંગાર ઉડતી . ભાગી માર્ગો પૂર. કૃષિ પાકો વ્યાપક નુકસાન.
(v)
ઍક્શન સૂચવ્યું હતું કે:
માછીમારો ઉત્તર આંધ્ર સાથે સમુદ્ર માં સાહસ ન કરવાની સલાહ આપી છે
પ્રદેશ, Odisha અને પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ કિનારે . માછીમારી કામગીરી કુલ સસ્પેન્શન . મોટા પાયે
દરિયાઇ વિસ્તારોમાં વસતી સ્થળાંતર. સંવેદનશીલ રેલ અને રોડ ટ્રાફિક કુલ સસ્પેન્શન
વિસ્તારોમાં . અસરગ્રસ્ત વિસ્તારોમાં લોકોને અંદર રહેવા માટે
જમીન પર આવતી અંદાજ કરો:
પણ જમીન પર આવતી પછી સિસ્ટમ ખૂબ જ તીવ્ર ની તીવ્રતા જાળવી શક્યતા છે
ચક્રવાતી 6 કલાક માટે તોફાન અને ધીમે ધીમે અનુગામી 6 કલાક જ્યારે એક ચક્રવાતી તોફાન માં નબળા
આંતરિક Odisha સમગ્ર northwestwards ખસેડવાની . ભારે સાથે સૌથી વધુ સ્થળોએ તેની અસર હેઠળ વરસાદ
થોડા સ્થળોએ જાય છે અને અત્યંત ભારે અલગ સ્થળોએ જાય છે Odisha પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે . અંતે વરસાદ
ભારે ધોધ માટે અલગ ભારે સાથે ઘણા સ્થળોએ પણ ઉત્તર તટીય આંધ્ર પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે
પ્રદેશ, છત્તીસગઢ અને ઝારખંડ . 100-120 kmph પહોંચ્યા ગેલ પવનની ઝડપ પણ જીતવું હોત
6 કલાક અને આ જ સમયગાળા દરમિયાન Odisha પર વારાફરતી 6 કલાક માટે 60-70 માટે .
આગામી બુલેટિન 13 , આવતીકાલના IST 0130 hrs અંતે આપવામાં આવશે
મી ઓક્ટોબર, 2013

ટી સી એક સી બુલેટિન
નિરિક્ષણ અને હવામાનની ટ્રેક
ચક્રવાત પવન અનુમાન
તોફાનમાં આઈપીઓ મોડલ
ચક્રવાતના તાજેતરની સેટેલાઈટ કલ્પના
NWP માર્ગદર્શન

ચક્રવાત Phailin Odisha હેલ્પલાઇન સંખ્યા

Odisha રાજ્ય પ્રકાશિત કરવામાં આવી છે અસરગ્રસ્ત સાયક્લોન માટે હેલ્પલાઇન સંખ્યા. આ કંટ્રોલ રૂમ ની Numbers નીચે નોંધ અને શેરિંગ દ્વારા Lifes સેવ કરો. કોઈને દરમિયાન અને ચક્રવાત Phailin બરબાદી પછી જરૂર હશે માટે હવે નંબરો છાપો અથવા નીચે નોંધ કરો.

Odisha રાજ્ય હેલ્પલાઇન સંખ્યા

Odisha સેન્ટ્રલ કંટ્રોલ રૂમ 0674-2534177 છે

DISTRICT નિયંત્રણ રૂમ
==========================
Mayurbhanj 06792-252759
Jajpur 06728-222648
Gajapati 06815-222943
Dhenkanal 06762-221376
ખુર્દા 06755-220002
Keonjhar 06766-255437
કટક 0671-2507842
Ganjam 06811-263978
પુરી 06752-223237
Kendrapara 06727-232803
Jagatsinghpur 06724-220368
Balasore 06782-26267
Bhadrak 06784-251881

અત્યંત જોખમી ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin માટે ભારત કૌંસ

ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin 10 ફુટ સર્જ પેકિંગ કરી શકાઈ

ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin , આ Saffir – સિમ્પસન સ્કેલ પર કોઈ શ્રેણી 5, ઉત્તર ભારતીય કિનારે આસન્ન છે. આ વિશાળ તોફાન 155 માઇલ (250 કિમી ) ના પવનો રખાઈ છે.

દ્વારા પોસ્ટ કરવામાં આવ્યું : ડો જેફ સ્નાતકોત્તર, હવામાન અંડરગ્રાઉન્ડ

સુધારાશે : 5:46 PM પર પોસ્ટેડ GMT 12 ઓક્ટોબર, 2013 ના રોજ

” ખૂબ જ જોખમી ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin 16 યુટીસી ( મધ્યાહન પરોઢિયે ) શનિવાર, 12 ઓક્ટોબર, 2013 અંતે ગોપાલપુરમાં (વસ્તી 7,000 ) ની નગર નજીક ભારત ઉત્તરપૂર્વીય કિનારા પર જમીન પર આવતી કર્યા છે. Phailin જમીન સાથે ક્રિયાપ્રતિક્રિયા કારણે , જમીન પર આવતી વખતે નોંધપાત્ર નબળા કરવામાં આવી હતી, અને ચાર કલાક જમીન પર આવતી પહેલાં સંયુક્ત ટાયફૂન ચેતવણી કેન્દ્ર ( JTWC ) દ્વારા 140 માઇલ પવન સાથે કેટેગરી 4 તોફાન રેટ આવી હતી. આંખ તરીકે ગોપાલપુરમાં માં 938 MB બહાર તળીયે દબાણ પર પસાર કર્યો હતો, અને આ શહેર eyewall માં , 85 ગંભીર માટે gusting , 56 એમપીએચની રખાઈ પવન અહેવાલ . એક 938 MB દબાણ એક ઉપગ્રહ પવન અને દબાણ અંદાજ ના ” ડ્વોરેક ટેકનિક ” નો ઉપયોગ કરીને , 140 માઇલ પવન સાથે કેટેગરી 4 તોફાનની શોધવા માટે અપેક્ષા છે. તે અંતર્દેશીય નહીં તરીકે સેટેલાઈટ છબીઓ Phailin માતાનો તીવ્ર વાવાઝોડા હૂંફાળું અને ક્ષેત્રીય કવરેજમાં સંકોચાતુ છે, અને Visakhapanam બહાર રડાર દર્શાવે છે કે , ભારત પણ તોફાન માતાનો પડઘા એક નબળા પડવાની બતાવે છે. Phailin તરીકે માઇક્રોવેવ ઉપગ્રહ વગાડવા દ્વારા અંદાજ કલાક દીઠ એક ઇંચ , ઓવરને મૂશળધાર વરસાદ લાવવામાં આવે છે.

1 આકૃતિ . Phailin રડાર ઇમેજ જમીન પર આવતી વખતે . છબી ક્રેડિટ : IMD .

આકૃતિ 2. 12 ઓક્ટોબર, 2013 ના રોજ આશરે 07:30 UTC લેવામાં ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin ઓફ એમઓડીઆઇએસ ઉપગ્રહ છબી, . તે સમયે, Phailin 150 એમપીએચની પવન સાથે ટોચના ઓવરને કેટેગરી 4 તોફાન હતી. છબી ક્રેડિટ : નાસા.

Phailin માંથી નુકસાન
Phailin મહાન 1999 Odisha ચક્રવાત , કારણ ચૌદ વર્ષ ભારત અસર મજબૂત ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત છે. કે તોફાન 155 ઈશાંત મહત્તમ સતત પવન સાથે હિટ અને દરિયાકિનારાને 5.9 મીટર (19 ફુટ ) ની તોફાનમાં લાવ્યા. તે (. અંશે નબળા હોવા છતાં, કદાચ 20 પવન સાથે – 30 માઇલ નીચલા ) 1999 ચક્રવાત કરતાં ક્ષેત્રીય હદ મોટા છે કારણ Phailin , કિનારે એક સમાન કદના તોફાનમાં વાહન સમક્ષ રજુ કરવાનો પ્રયત્ન કરીશું Phailin માતાનો તોફાનમાં અને કેટેગરી 3 4 પવન નજીકના આપત્તિજનક જો eyewall દરિયાકિનારે આવે છે કિનારે એક 50 માઇલ વિશાળ swath નુકસાન , અને જમણી કારણ બનશે . હરિકેન કેટરીના Phailin કરતાં જમીન પર આવતી વખતે નબળા હતી, પરંતુ કેટરિના કેટરિના માતાનો તોફાનમાં વધુ વિનાશક Phailin માતાનો હશે કરતાં બનાવે છે, એક ખૂબ મોટા વિસ્તાર આવરી લેવામાં કે હરિકેન પવનને હતી. હું Phailin ના મુખ્ય ભય તેના પવન પાસેથી હશે એવું લાગે છે. હું ખાસ કરીને Brahmapur (વસ્તી 3,50,000 ), ભારતના સૌથી મોટા શહેર 58TH શહેરમાં Phailin માતાનો પવન નુકસાન સંભવિત ચિંતિત છું. Brahmapur દસ માઈલ્સ અંતર્દેશીય આવેલું છે, અને સંભવિત કેટલાક કલાકો માટે રખાઈ હરિકેન પવનને અનુભવ થશે. Phailin માતાનો પૂરને સંભવિત 6 વરસાદની માત્રા તરીકે , અન્ય વિશાળ ચિંતાનો વિષય છે – 12 ઇંચ જીવન માટે જોખમી ફ્લેશ પૂર બળ , અંતરિયાળ 100 માઇલ પર swath સાથે પડી જશે .

Phailin કેટલો મજબૂત છે?
પ્રશ્નો યુએસ સંયુક્ત ટાયફૂન ચેતવણી કેન્દ્ર ( JTWC ) કરતા નોંધપાત્ર રીતે ઓછી હતી જે ભારત હવામાન વિભાગ (IMD ) Phailin માતાનો શક્તિ મૂલ્યાંકનો વિશે ઊભા કરવામાં આવ્યા છે. બંને કેન્દ્રો ઉપગ્રહ અંદાજ કરતાં પવન સીધી માપ વાપરો, જેથી અમે સાચું છે જે કેન્દ્ર ખબર નથી. એટલે કે, ઉપગ્રહ છબી પર સમાન દેખાવ ( તફાવતો એ આ ચાર્ટ જુઓ પેસિફિક કરતાં એટલાન્ટિક માં નબળા હશે સાથે તોફાન – તે જ તકનીકો ઉપયોગ કરીને ઉપગ્રહ અંદાજ એટલાન્ટિક અને પેસિફિક મહાસાગરની માટે અલગ અલગ પરિણામો આપે છે કે જે સાચું છે. ) તે આ જ રીતે ભારતીય મહાસાગરમાં કેસ છે કે હોઈ શકે છે. IMD તેમના સેટેલાઈટ તાકાત અંદાજ પ્રયાસ કરો અને ગોઠવવા માટે કેટલાક બોયું માહિતી જોવામાં આવ્યું છે , પરંતુ હાઇ ઓવરને ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાતો હું અમે ખરેખર ભારતીય મહાસાગર ચક્રવાતો એક હરિકેન તરીકે જ પવન છે કે કેમ તે ખબર શંકા છે કે ભારતીય મહાસાગરમાં પૂરતી અસામાન્ય છે એ જ ઉપગ્રહ સહી સાથે એટલાન્ટિક . વિચારણા અન્ય વસ્તુ IMD તેમના સલાહો માટે 10 મિનિટ સરેરાશ પવન વાપરે છે, અને JTWC 1 મિનિટ ઉપયોગ કરે છે, IMD સલાહો માં પવન લાંબા સરેરાશ સમયગાળો કારણે , ઓછામાં ઓછા 6% દ્વારા ઓછી હશે જેથી . ભારત તેના પોતાના હરિકેન શિકારી વિમાન હોય તો આ મુદ્દો અપ સાફ કરી શકાય; યુએસ એર ફોર્સ જેવા સી 130 એરક્રાફ્ટ ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાતો માં ફ્લાય અને વાસ્તવિક પવન માપ લેવા માટે વાપરે મેળવવામાં ભારત વિશે કેટલીક ઉચ્ચ સ્તર ચર્ચાઓ થઈ છે.

આકૃતિ 3. 12 ઓક્ટોબર, 2013 ના રોજ આશરે 02:30 UTC લેવામાં ટાયફૂન નારી ની એમઓડીઆઇએસ ઉપગ્રહ છબી, . તે સમયે, નારી 90 એમપીએચની પવન સાથે કેટેગરી -1 તોફાન હતી. છબી ક્રેડિટ : નાસા.

” – ડૉ જેફ સ્નાતકોત્તર – અંડરગ્રાઉન્ડ હવામાન

સંયુક્ત ટાયફૂન ચેતવણી કેન્દ્ર ( JTWC )