Russia: 7,000+ fight massive Siberia wildfires – nearly 100 homes and social facilities burned (Vesti) – Published 28 Apr 2017 1920z (GMT/UTC)

(Images: Vesti)

“FEMA and the Department of Defense stepped up in Siberia, where Raging wildfires.

Now in the Federal District with fire fighting more than 7 thousand people and 2 thousand units. In a region already transferred aviation: aircraft IL-76 and “amphibian be-200. At any time to help firefighters ready to come over 25 000 soldiers from the reserve of the Ministry of defence. The military also provided nearly three dozen Army helicopters for aerial reconnaissance.

Fight fire with rescue workers hampered by weather, reports tv channel “Russia 24”. Strong wind provokes new ignition. The fire covered thousands of hectares of forest, including — near human settlements.

In hazardous areas remain towns in Irkutsk oblast and Buryatia. On the eve there already burned nearly 100 homes and social facilities. The fire has so far sent to relatives in hotels and temporary accommodation. For people organized a gathering of aid they will receive compensation. Regional authorities have promised to provide victims new housing or materials for the construction of houses” – Vesti (Translated by Bing) April 30, 2017 06:10

However Russia’s EMERCOM (April 30, 2017 08:01) stated that ther wildfire situation in Krasnoyarsk Territory is under control – all settlements are safe 

“The Emergencies Minister Vladimir Puchkov has conducted a meeting of the Governmental Emergency Response Committee dedicated to fire safety in the Siberian Federal District.

It was mentioned that by decision of the Governmental Commission, the Emergency Situation mode of operation was enabled in all constituent territories of Siberia and special fire fighting regime was enabled in many municipalities.

“from 25 to 28 April, more than 2000 fires were put out by joint efforts of the Federal and regional fire departments, patrol groups of the municipalities and other services. More than 150 settlements in 22 municipalities were saved from fires”, pointed out Vladimir Puchkov.

Fire fighters and especially “The Institute of Village Elders” actively instruct population on fire safety. More than 95% of fires that occurred in KrasnoyarskTerritory were taken under control within the first day.

More than 700 administrative infractions for dry grass burning and campfire building were given by the Emergencies Ministry’s specialists in KrasnoyarskTerritory since beginning of 2017. Forestry workers already fined more than 3.7 million rubles.

The First Deputy Governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Chairman of the Krasnoyarsk Territory Government, Viktor Tomenko reported that since 25 April the region experiences heat wave with strong wind gusting. The situation is the same, as in Khakassia in 2015, where people died due in major fires. Since 20 April special fire fighting regime was enabled in KrasnoyarskTerritory.

“Despite all taken preventive measures we detected several major violation of the regime by citizens. Due to casual handling of fire, nine houses were destroyed in 5 settlements of three municipalities”, said Viktor Tomenko. 15 people lost their houses. Nobody was killed or injured. According to Tomenko, all payments will be carried out from the regional budget and assistance from the federal budget is not required.

While mentioning forest fires, the Vice-Governor pointed out that these fires have no threat to settlements.

Despite this, a ground force consisting of more than 27,000 people and 1,500 units of equipment was created to protect the settlements in KrasnoyarskTerritory.

According to daily monitoring, the air is nor contaminated and there is no threat to health of KrasnoyarskTerritory residents.

“We completed the most important objective – we prevented human casualties. According to order of the Russian President Vladimir Putin we carry out comprehensive preventive efforts, provide aid and support to every affected person. All affected families must immediately receive compensations. I ask all social workers to take such cases under special control and help people to draft necessary documents”, pointed out Vladimir Puchkov.

The Emergencies Minister also pointed out that many people will leave towns for May Holidays. For that reason, it is necessary to organize additional efforts and protect all recreational sites. Vladimir Puchkov underlined that as a lot of people will go to their summer residences from towns, the motorways may get overloaded and he ordered Traffic Police to check once again preparedness of roads.

“We must not forget that spring flood is still ongoing and that requires additional work and preventive efforts. On one hand, wildfire risks are gradually decreasing, while on the other a lot of people leaving towns for holidays, skyrocketing these risks”, said the Minister.

Vladimir Puchkov also asked KrasnoyarskTerritory to assist Buryatia and Irkutsk Region in combating wildfires.

“KrasnoyarskTerritory has powerful group of personnel, this is why I ask you to organize cooperation with border constituents, such as Buryatia and Irkutsk Region that have adverse wildfire situation and unfavorable weather forecasts, provide necessary aid to stop fire spreading towards KrasnoyarskTerritory. Aircraft and ground forces are already fight fires there”, said Vladimir Puchkov.”

Source: http://en.mchs.ru/

Australia/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone Frances (29U, 17S) 27/1200Z nr 11.0S 128.3E, moving WSW 10 kt (Darwin TCWC) – Published 27 Apr 2017 1506z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Frances (29U, 17S)

Intensity Category 1 Cyclone Frances is moving southwest across the Timor Sea tonight and is slowly intensifying (BOM NT TCWC)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000ZIS 10 FEET (JTWC)

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2

Issued at 10:54 pm ACST [9:24 pm AWST] on Thursday 27 April 2017

Headline:

Category 1 Cyclone Frances is moving southwest across the Timor Sea tonight and is slowly intensifying.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Kuri Bay to Wyndham, not including Wyndham.

Watch Zone

None.

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Frances at 9:30 pm ACST [8:00 pm AWST]:

Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.0 degrees South 128.3 degrees East, estimated to be 235 kilometres west of Pirlangimpi and 410 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu.

Movement: west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Frances is expected to intensify as it moves southwest through the Timor Sea tonight, possibly developing into a Category 2 system early on Friday. The cyclone is expected to remain over water as it heads towards the Indian Ocean, however If it takes a more southerly track peripheral gales may affect the north Kimberley coast later on Friday.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Wyndham, not including Wyndham, later on Friday.

Tides between Kalumburu and Wyndham are likely to rise above normal high tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.

People in the Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.

People between Kuri Bay and Wyndham should listen for the next advice.

People needing DFES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000.

For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au.

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am ACST Friday 28 April [12:30 am AWST Friday 28 April].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

=================================================================================

IDJ21031

CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS AND METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) In Jakarta

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN

Issued by the TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA

In: 17:05 EST 27/04/2017

Tropical Cyclone FRANCES

The condition of the date 27/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:

Position: 10, 1LS, 129, 4BT (about 630 km east of Kupang)

The direction of motion: West-Southwest, the speed of 8 knots (15 km/h) and move towards the region of Indonesia

Speed

Maximum wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)

24-hour predictions, date 28/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:

Position: 11, 2LS, 126, 6BT (about 340 km east southeast of Kupang)

The direction of motion: moving away from the southwestern region of Indonesia

Speed

Wind maximum: 55 knots (100 km/h)

Prediction of 48 hours, the date of 29/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:

Position: 12, 2LS, 123, 5BT

The direction of motion: moving away from the southwestern region of Indonesia

Speed

Wind maximum: 40 knots (75 km/h)

72 hours predictions, date 30/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:

Position: 13, 0LS, 121, 0BT

The direction of motion: moving away from the southwestern region of Indonesia

Speed

Maximum: wind 20 knots (35 km/h)

IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN INDONESIA:

Tropical cyclone FRANCES gave impact on weather conditions in the region of Indonesia in the form of:

–Rain with medium intensity up to thick on the territory of NTT and the southern and Southeast Maluku.

–Waves with a height of 1.25–2.5 meters in territorial waters south of Sumba, Bali Strait, Lombok Strait, Selat Alas southern waters of the island of Savu sea, Savu sea, Southern Ocean Waters up to Sermata Islands Sea, Arafuru Leti Central and Eastern parts, and the Indian Ocean south of the NTB.

–Waves with a height of 2.5-4 meters in territorial waters south of Kupang, Timor Sea, Arafuru Sea and parts of the West.

IDJ21031
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 17:05 WIB 27/04/2017

Siklon Tropis FRANCES

Kondisi tanggal 27/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 10,1LS, 129,4BT (sekitar 630 km sebelah timur Kupang)
Arah Gerak : barat barat daya, kecepatan 8 knots (15 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 35 knots (65 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 28/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 11,2LS, 126,6BT (sekitar 340 km sebelah timur tenggara Kupang)
Arah Gerak : Barat daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 55 knots (100 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 29/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 12,2LS, 123,5BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 40 knots (75 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 30/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 13,0LS, 121,0BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 20 knots (35 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis FRANCES memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Hujan dengan intensitas sedang hingga lebat di wilayah NTT dan Maluku bagian selatan dan Tenggara.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 1.25 – 2.5 meter di wilayah Perairan selatan Sumba, Selat Bali, Selat Lombok, Selat Alas bagian selatan, Perairan Pulau Sawu, Laut Sawu bagian selatan, Perairan Kepulauan Sermata hingga Leti, Laut Arafuru bagian tengah dan timur, dan Samudera Hindia selatan NTB.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 2.5 – 4 meter di wilayah Perairan selatan Kupang, Laut Timor, dan Laut Arafuru bagian barat.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260251ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z — NEAR 9.6S 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 130.2E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 10.2S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 10.8S 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 11.6S 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 12.2S 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 13.0S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 13.4S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 129.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TS) 17S (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 270102Z ASCAT BULLSEYE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 35
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER PASS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 17S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS
WESTWARD. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE AND LEAD TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS. THIS DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260300).//
NNNN

S Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 27 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANCES is currently located near 10.9 S 128.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). FRANCES is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kalumburu (14.2 S, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA10 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_DARWIN / 1339

WTAU03 ADRM 271339 RRB
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
AT 1200 UTC 28 APRIL: WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.8 SOUTH 124.7
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA.
WINDS TO 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO NTTCWC.BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO
+6189203829
OR SATELLITE USING SAC1241 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION BURUM 312 .OR
212 AS
APPROPRIATE. VIA PERTH.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1930 UTC 27 APRIL 2017.

DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA – NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1404 UTC 27/04/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Frances
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 128.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [241 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/1800: 11.2S 127.4E: 040 [080]: 050 [095]: 993
+12: 28/0000: 11.5S 126.4E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 992
+18: 28/0600: 11.7S 125.6E: 065 [125]: 055 [100]: 990
+24: 28/1200: 11.8S 124.7E: 080 [145]: 055 [100]: 990
+36: 29/0000: 12.4S 122.9E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 996
+48: 29/1200: 12.8S 121.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 1000
+60: 30/0000: 13.1S 120.3E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 1002
+72: 30/1200: 13.2S 119.3E: 155 [290]: 025 [045]: 1005
+96: 01/1200: 13.2S 118.1E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1004
+120: 02/1200: 12.8S 116.7E: 290 [535]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
The 12Z position of Tropical Cyclone Frances was made with reasonable confidence
based on recent microwave passes and infra-red imagery.

Intensity was based on a shear pattern with low level centre having moved
underneath the dense overcast, giving a DT of 3.5. Development over the last 24
hours has been D+, giving a MET of 3.0, PAT of 3.0 with Final T at 3.0. Ascat
pass at 0103 UTC indicated winds of 30-35 knots on the southern side.

The cyclone is located in a moist environment in a diffluent upper-level outflow
pattern just north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level
divergence with twin outflow channels seen in recent satellite imagery. Earlier
in the day the system moved into a more favourable low shear environment. This,
in conjunction with the arrival of a strong east to southeasterly surge from a
developing ridge over Australia, has sustained continued development of the
cyclone.

Model consensus suggest the cyclone will move towards the southwest over the
next few days due to mid level ridges located to the south and east. On this
southwesterly track, the system is expected to remain in a low sheared
environment and in a diffluent upper pattern, with even a chance of rapid
development. There is a small chance though that the system could turn more
towards the west into an increasingly sheared environment. Dry air intrusion may
also limit development in the short term.

From later Saturday, the cyclone is expected to move into a higher shear
environment, due to a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west, with
dry air entrainment weakening the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/2000 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Philippines: Tropical Depression MUIFA/DANTE 03W 27/1500Z position nr 17.3N 135.1E, moving NW 11 kt (JTWC) – Published 27 Apr 2017 1545z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression MUIFA (03W )

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 17.0N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 134.8E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 18.4N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 20.1N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 135.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
//
NNNN

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 270600

WTJP21 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1701 MUIFA (1701) 1002 HPA
AT 15.7N 134.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.0N 135.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 18.8N 137.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 23.3N 144.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping from PAGASA

WTPH RPMM 271200

TTT WARNING 7-FINAL

AT 1200 27 APRIL TROPICAL DEPRESSION {MUIFA} (1701) DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 281200 ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND UNLESS RE-ENTRY OCCURS THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm #ARLENE 21/0900Z nr 40.0N 48.0W, moving W 27 kt (NHC FL) – Updated 21 Apr 2017 1325 (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm ARLENE

National Hurricane Center (NHC)

000
WTNT31 KNHC 210832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012017
500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

…ARLENE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC…
…STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…40.0N 48.0W
ABOUT 1135 MI…1825 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 31 MPH…50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 48.0 West. Arlene is
moving toward the west near 31 mph (50 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected, and Arlene is forecast to
become absorbed by a large extratropical low and dissipate later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
END

Recent satellite loop of Tropical Storm #Arlene in the Atlantic. pic.twitter.com/JKABPRhctW

— Met Office Storms (@metofficestorms) April 21, 2017

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0832

WTNT21 KNHC 210832
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012017
0900 UTC FRI APR 21 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 48.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 48.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 50.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 0SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Myanmar/ Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Depression 92B (Future CS Maarutha)150300Z 12.5N 88.3E, moving NNE 10.8kt (RSMC New Delhi)- Published 15 Apr 2017 1240z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 92B

(Future Cyclonic Storm Maarutha)

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15-04-2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 20 KMPH DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 12.5º N AND LONGITUDE 88.3 ºE, ABOUT 500 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 950 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE (48062) AND SANDWAY (48080) BY FORENOON OF 17TH.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 1.5. THE CONVECTION HAS ORGANISED DURING PAST 12 HRS AND SHOWS CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH WELL DEFINED WRAPPING FROM EASTERN SECTOR. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER SOUTH AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 9.0 DEGREE NORTH TO 17.0 DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.5 DEGREE EAST TO 95.0 DEGREE EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 70 DEGREE CELCIUS. A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 11.4/91.9 REPORTED MSLP OF 1003.8 HPA AND WIND OF 1700/14 KTS. AVAILABLE SHIP AND BUOY DATA AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO BE ABOUT 1001 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. MULTI-SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS 30-320C. IT DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 28-290C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. IT ALSO DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 60-80 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND IS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS (HIGH) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 150 x 10-6 S-1 AND CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 x 10-5 S-1 .THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO THE SOUHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 x 10-5 S-1 THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 100N. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 7 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 8 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AMPLITUDE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY INDICATE INCURSION OF WARM MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. HENCE CONSIDERING ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, WHILE OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, VORTICITY AND TPW ARE FAVOURABLE, MJO AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE UNFAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM MAY REACH UPTO THE INTENSITY OF DEEP DEPRESSION/CYCLONIC STORM.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION/ CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS.
(M.MOHAPATRA)
HEAD-RSMC, NEW DELHI

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

ABIO10 PGTW 150200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/150200Z-151800ZAPR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150051ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 87.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 600
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142121Z AMSU-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND IS NOW CIRCULAR IN SHAPE WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY
IN THE NORTHEAST WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) OFFSET BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
AND DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTIO21 PGTW 150100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

Other Sources

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 15 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ONE is currently located near 14.3 N 90.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). ONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Sandoway (18.5 N, 94.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Myanaung (18.3 N, 95.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Bassein (16.7 N, 94.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Henzada (17.6 N, 95.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

(Image: DoctorAdvice4U)

DoctorAdvice4u (@RoshinRowjee) | Twitter

DoctorAdvice4u.com

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151115
SPECIAL GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 0600 HOURS FROM 0600 UTC 15 APRIL 2017.

PARTI:-NO STORM WARNING:-

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 28 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 13.2
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 89.0 DEG E, ABOUT 420 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA
BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 840 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE
AND SANDWAY (MYANMAR) BY FORENOON OF 17TH APRIL.

PART:-II:
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
———————— ——————-
ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 56 DEG E : S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 56 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 56 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N; NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15
KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 58 DEG E TO 74 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N: :SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 60 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND S OF 7 DEG N: :6-4 NM(.)
2)REST AREA:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:
1) E OF 75 DEG E 0.5-2 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-1 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 58 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
E/SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 58 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 58 DEG E TO 63 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 63 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
5)E OF 65 DEG E TO 75 DEG E :NW/W-LYNW/W-LY 05/15 KTS(.)
6)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
7)E OF 75 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: W-LY 05/15 KTS
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N :8-6 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT
1)W OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-1 MTR(.)
2)E OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-3 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 62 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 0.5-2 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
1)W OF 65 DEG E AND S OF 20 DEG N:ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)
2)N OF 20 DEG N: S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 65 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E
AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 85 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 85 DEG E : :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 85 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :4-3 NM(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3-4 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E : 3-2 NM
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:3-4 NM
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: UCSanDiego team develops diabetes drug that could completely reverse the disease (Reblogged from Sparkonit)

A team of researchers at the University of California, San Diego, is developing a pill that restores insulin sensitivity in diabetic patients. Type 2 diabetes develops when the body’s response to insulin – a hormone that regulates the amount of glucose in the blood – gets weaker. Commercially available drugs so far only remove excess glucose…

via Team Develops Diabetes Drug That Could Completely Reverse The Disease — Sparkonit

More about Diabetes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diabetes_mellitus

Philippines: Tropical Depression Two/ Crising (02W) 141500Z position nr 10.7N 128.1E, moving WNW 11kt (JTWC) – Published 14 Apr 2017 1442z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Two (02W)

(TD Crising in Philippines)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 02W (Two) Warning #02
Issued at 14/1500Z

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 10.6N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 128.6E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 11.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 11.6N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 12.2N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 13.2N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 128.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND
151500Z.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #2
FOR:Tropical Depression Crising
Tropical Cyclone: WARNING
ISSUED AT:8:00 PM, 14 April 2017

Tropical depression CRISING has maintained its strength as it moves in a west-northwest direction

• Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to occasionally heavy within the 250 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
• Expected to make landfall over Samar island tomorrow afternoon.
• Residents in areas under Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
• Possible inclusion of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and Burias island under TCWS 1 in the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

PAGASA Track as of05:00 M, 14 April 2017

Satellite Image

Location of eye/center:	At 7:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “CRISING” was estimated based on all available data at 340 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.6 °N, 128.8 °E)
Strength:	Maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 55 kph
Forecast Movement:	Forecast to move West Northwest at 22 kph
Forecast Positions:	24 Hour( Tomorrow afternoon): In the vicinity of Tinambacan Norte, Samar(12.1°N, 124.5°E) 48 Hour(Sunday afternoon):95 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro(13.3°N, 120.3°E) 72 Hour(Monday afternoon): 250 km West Southwest of Iba, Zambales(14.4°N, 117.9°E) 96 Hour(Tuesday afternoon):320 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales(16.0°N, 117.1°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS	Luzon	Visayas	Mindanao	Impacts of the wind
#1 (30-60kph expected in 36 hrs)	Sorsogon, Albay, and Masbate including Ticao island	Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, and northern portion of Leyte.		->Very light or no damage to high risk structures, ->Light damage to medium to low risk structures ->Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged ->Twigs of small trees may be broken. ->Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
	Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

Severe Weather Bulletin in PDF file

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping in PDF

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Russia: UK Minister condemns persecution of LGBT community in Chechnya – Published 12 Apr 2017 1835z (GMT/UTC)

Baroness Anelay calls on Russia to investigate mass detention of gay men in Chechnya and ensure the perpetrators are brought to justice.

Reports from international human rights organisations suggest that over 100 gay men have recently been detained in Chechnya, with some reports suggesting that at least three have been killed and many have been tortured.

Baroness Anelay said:

The detention and ill-treatment of over 100 gay men in Chechnya is extremely concerning. Reports have also suggested that at least three of these men have been killed. The statement by the regional Government, implying that such treatment towards LGBT people is acceptable, is particularly abhorrent. We condemn any and all persecution, and call on the authorities to promptly investigate and ensure that perpetrators of human rights abuses are brought to justice.

The human rights situation for LGBT people in Russia has deteriorated significantly in recent years and we continue to voice our serious concern with Russian authorities at all levels. Russia’s international human rights obligations require them to protect citizens who may be at risk of persecution. We expect the Russian government to fulfill its obligations to this end, and to uphold the rule of law.

Related:

Chechnya opens Concentration Camps for homosexuals – Report (Reblogged from @76Crimes)

#LGBT+ #Journo #Gay #Journalism #Press #Russia #News/ #Chechnya threatens journalists for reporting mass arrests https://t.co/gmABvamjap

— GOATY’S NEWS (UK) (@Goatys_News) April 15, 2017

<

She broke the story of Chechnya’s anti-gay purge. Now, she says she has to flee Russia https://t.co/fmQ2wqAmI9

— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 16, 2017

Chechnya President Fires Back at Reports That a ‘Purge’ of Gay Men is Underway https://t.co/EqliyYHx9R pic.twitter.com/WfinBaI9Jm

— Towleroad (@tlrd) April 17, 2017

#Russia denies #gay men are being tortured and killed in #Chechnya. #LGBT+ #Homophobia #News https://t.co/6eihuGX4V0

— GOATY’S NEWS (UK) (@Goatys_News) April 20, 2017

 

Chechnya opens Concentration Camps for homosexuals – Report (Reblogged from @76Crimes)

The Russian republic of Chechnya has reportedly sent gay men that it arrested last week to secret prisons described as “concentration camps.”

via Report: Chechnya opens concentration camps for homosexuals — 76 CRIMES

Update>>>

Russia: UK Minister condemns persecution of LGBT community in Chechnya – Published 12 Apr 2017 1835z (GMT/UTC)

#LGBT+ #Journo #Gay #Journalism #Press #Russia #News/ #Chechnya threatens journalists for reporting mass arrests https://t.co/gmABvamjap

— GOATY’S NEWS (UK) (@Goatys_News) April 15, 2017

She broke the story of Chechnya’s anti-gay purge. Now, she says she has to flee Russia https://t.co/fmQ2wqAmI9

— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 16, 2017

Chechnya President Fires Back at Reports That a ‘Purge’ of Gay Men is Underway https://t.co/EqliyYHx9R pic.twitter.com/WfinBaI9Jm

— Towleroad (@tlrd) April 17, 2017

#Russia denies #gay men are being tortured and killed in #Chechnya. #LGBT+ #Homophobia #News https://t.co/6eihuGX4V0

— GOATY’S NEWS (UK) (@Goatys_News) April 20, 2017

 

Norfolk Island/ NZ /New Caledonia: Tropical Cyclone COOK 16P 111500Z position nr 27.0S 168.8E, moving SE 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 11 Apr 2017 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone COOK (16P)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: Apr 11, 2017, 12:00:00 AM GMT @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 11/1500Z

• Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 26.6S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 168.2E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 28.3S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 168.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 111141Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING AN
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC REGION, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

===========================================================================

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 110152 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6S 166.0E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SECTOR FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST.
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO DECREASED. CYCLONE LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 26-27 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 1/3
DEGRESS INTO STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDS, DT=3.5 MET 3.5 AND
PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS. CI HELD
HIGH DUE TO CI RULES FOR WEAKENING.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 26.1S 167.9E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.4S 170.1E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 28.9S 172.5E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON COOK.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0346 UTC 11-Apr-2017

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E at 11/0000UTC today or about 140nm south of Noumea, New
Caledonia, moving south at 10 knots. Maximum winds near the centre
were estimated to be 55 knots with gales extending up to 120nm from
the centre.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 12-Apr-2017

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E, or about bout 140nm south of Noumea, New Caledonia, at
11/0000UTC today and is currently moving south out of the Tropics.

Tropical depression, TD19F, (994hPa) was analysed near 26.0S 169.3W,
or about 430nm southeast of Nukualofa, Tonga at 11/0000UTC today. The
system has low potential to develop into a TC, and is expected to
drift slowly northwards towards Niue over the next 24 hours.

OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 15-Apr-2017

TD19F is expected to track east-southeast from Thursday and lie near
southern Cook Islands, then weaken from Friday onwards.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Wed 12-Apr-2017

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2017

Current warnings and cyclone tracks in the RSMC Nadi area
Current oceanic warnings in the TCWC Wellington area

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm COOK is currently located near 26.6 S 168.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). COOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_SOUTH_25S / 1311

WTNZ41 NZKL 111311
GALE WARNING 279
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK 990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6 SOUTH
168.8 EAST AT 111200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.6S 168.8E AT 111200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WITH VERY
ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 268.=

South West Pacific Marine

UPDATED

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 110800 UTC. PART 1 : WARNINGSTORM WARNING 034 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110731 UTC. REFER TO STORM WARNING NUMBER 268 ISSUED BY RSMC WELLINGTON. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 032. ********************************************************************* ************** GALE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110847 UTC. IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 23S 174W 23S 165W 25S 175W 25S 166W,EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 033. ********************************************************************* ************** PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Apr 120600 UTC. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 11S 160E 16S 165E 23S 169E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1. WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 10S 160W 08S 145W 07S 130W 07S 120W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. TROUGH T1 04S 160E 08S 175E 11S 179W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 12S 176W 18S 170W 20S 168W 25S 167W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 09S 169W 13S 163W 16S 160W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. TROUGH T4 17S 152W 21S 145W 25S 138W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T4. TROUGH T5 25S 156W 22S 149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T5. OUTSIDE STORM WARNING NUMBER 034 AND IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 22S AND BETWEEN 165E AND 175E, EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175E AND 135W, EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF EQ AND EAST OF 135W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean (Australia): Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U 07/1800Z nr 15.9S 110.4E, moving S 3 kt (Perth TCWC) – Published 07 Apr 2017 2228z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U

(= CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: TSR)

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Saturday 8 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 5) was located at 2:00 am AWST near
15.9S 110.4E,
that is 790 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 780 km north northwest of
Exmouth] and moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie has continued to intensify over the last 6 hours
and is a category 5 system over open waters northwest of WA. Ernie will
continue to intensify as it slowly tracks towards the south and then turn to
the west-southwest this morning and is expected to begin weakening from late
Saturday or early Sunday.

Gales are not expected on Christmas Island or the WA mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am AWST.

===============================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:16S110E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1835UTC 7 APRIL 2017

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal nine south (15.9S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal four east (110.4E)
Recent movement : south at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 120 knots
Central pressure: 922 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 120 knots near the centre easing to 95 knots by 1800 UTC 08
April.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 08 April: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.2 south 110.0 east
Central pressure 931 hPa.
Winds to 115 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 08 April: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.4 south 109.1 east
Central pressure 953 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 08 April 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK (Wales): Criccieth lifeboat aids to grounded yacht on Harlech beach – Published 04 Apr 2017 1455z (GMT/UTC)

“At 10.30am, volunteer Crew Members from Criccieth’s RNLI Lifeboat Station were requested to launch following multiple reports of a yacht aground at the northern end of Harlech beach.

RNLI/Ifer Gwyn

The yacht, named Thimble and approximately 30ft in length, had gotten into difficulties near the mouth of the Porthmadog Estuary whilst attempting to navigate upriver.

Following initial calls, members of both Criccieth and Harlech HM Coastguard Teams had been deployed to assist, however with the yacht unable to refloat, it was decided to call Criccieth Lifeboat.

The Station’s Atlantic 85 Lifeboat, Doris Joan, was quickly on scene. However, the Crew were unable to attach a towline due to the ebbing tide and large waves at the foreshore. During this period, HM Coastguard had received further calls reporting a yacht in difficulty further south and requested that Barmouth RNLI launch their lifeboats. It quickly became apparent that these reports related to the same vessel; accordingly Barmouth Lifeboat’s inshore rescue boat was returned to Station whilst the all-weather Lifeboat continued towards Harlech in the hope that they could attach a rocket-line to tow the yacht. Once on-scene and following discussion with the Criccieth’s Lifeboat Crew it was decided that both vessels stood-by until high water, as the occupant was safely ashore.

After being afloat for 3 hours, the Crew of Criccieth Lifeboat were stood-down and returned to shore.” -RNLI

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK (West Midlands):A motorcyclist has been airlifted after a crash with a campervan – reblog from WMAS

(Image: WMAS)

Source: A motorcyclist has been airlifted after a crash with a campervan

Cameroon: 16-yr-old trans girl held for 2 weeks (so far) in Ebolowa prison just for being trans – reblogged from 76 Crimes

While LGBTI communities are celebrating today’s International Transgender Day of Visibility, a 16-year-old trans girl has been held in Ebolowa prison in southern Cameroon since the weekend of 18 March just for being trans.

via 2 weeks (so far) in Cameroon prison for being trans — 76 CRIMES

Jersey, CI: Woman in dramatic rescue after 200ft cliff fall near Groznez – Published 02 Apr 2017 1700z (GMT/UTC)

“A 59-YEAR-old woman was winched to safety by helicopter after falling more than 200 feet down a cliff near Groznez.

The rescue, carried out by the Fire and Rescue Service and Jersey Coastguard happened at around 6 pm on Saturday evening.

Fire crew abseiled down the cliffs near Groznez Castle to reach the woman. However, when they were unable to get the woman up the cliff face a helicopter was called out and Les Landes race course was used as a landing pad.

The States police confirmed that the woman was winched to safety before being taken to the Hospital with injuries that are not thought to be life-threatening.” – Jersey Evening Post

 

White Watch carried out a cliff rescue this evening. A woman had fallen approx. 200 feet and was found alive. pic.twitter.com/DblZCj5Cpr

— Jersey Fire & Rescue (@JsyFire) April 1, 2017

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

 

French Search & Rescue helicopter, coordinated by Jersey Coastguard, eventually winched the casualty to safety pic.twitter.com/P8Wp3tmBwL

— Jersey Fire & Rescue (@JsyFire) April 1, 2017

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History of the Jersey Fire and Rescue Service

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.