Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm #ARLENE 21/0900Z nr 40.0N 48.0W, moving W 27 kt (NHC FL) – Updated 21 Apr 2017 1325 (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm ARLENE

National Hurricane Center (NHC)

121705_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind arlene nhc

000
WTNT31 KNHC 210832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012017
500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

…ARLENE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC…
…STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…40.0N 48.0W
ABOUT 1135 MI…1825 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 31 MPH…50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 48.0 West. Arlene is
moving toward the west near 31 mph (50 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected, and Arlene is forecast to
become absorbed by a large extratropical low and dissipate later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
END

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0832

WTNT21 KNHC 210832
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012017
0900 UTC FRI APR 21 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 48.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 48.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 50.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 0SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Norfolk Island/ NZ /New Caledonia: Tropical Cyclone COOK 16P 111500Z position nr 27.0S 168.8E, moving SE 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 11 Apr 2017 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone COOK (16P)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: Apr 11, 2017, 12:00:00 AM GMT @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 11/1500Z

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 26.6S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 168.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 28.3S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 168.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 111141Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING AN
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC REGION, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

===========================================================================

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 110152 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6S 166.0E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SECTOR FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST.
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO DECREASED. CYCLONE LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 26-27 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 1/3
DEGRESS INTO STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDS, DT=3.5 MET 3.5 AND
PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS. CI HELD
HIGH DUE TO CI RULES FOR WEAKENING.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 26.1S 167.9E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.4S 170.1E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 28.9S 172.5E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON COOK.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0346 UTC 11-Apr-2017

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E at 11/0000UTC today or about 140nm south of Noumea, New
Caledonia, moving south at 10 knots. Maximum winds near the centre
were estimated to be 55 knots with gales extending up to 120nm from
the centre.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 12-Apr-2017

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E, or about bout 140nm south of Noumea, New Caledonia, at
11/0000UTC today and is currently moving south out of the Tropics.

Tropical depression, TD19F, (994hPa) was analysed near 26.0S 169.3W,
or about 430nm southeast of Nukualofa, Tonga at 11/0000UTC today. The
system has low potential to develop into a TC, and is expected to
drift slowly northwards towards Niue over the next 24 hours.

OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 15-Apr-2017

TD19F is expected to track east-southeast from Thursday and lie near
southern Cook Islands, then weaken from Friday onwards.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Wed 12-Apr-2017

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2017

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm COOK is currently located near 26.6 S 168.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). COOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_SOUTH_25S / 1311

WTNZ41 NZKL 111311
GALE WARNING 279
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK 990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6 SOUTH
168.8 EAST AT 111200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.6S 168.8E AT 111200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WITH VERY
ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 268.=

South West Pacific Marine

UPDATED

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 110800 UTC. PART 1 : WARNINGSTORM WARNING 034 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110731 UTC. REFER TO STORM WARNING NUMBER 268 ISSUED BY RSMC WELLINGTON. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 032. ********************************************************************* ************** GALE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110847 UTC. IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 23S 174W 23S 165W 25S 175W 25S 166W,EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 033. ********************************************************************* ************** PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Apr 120600 UTC. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 11S 160E 16S 165E 23S 169E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1. WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 10S 160W 08S 145W 07S 130W 07S 120W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. TROUGH T1 04S 160E 08S 175E 11S 179W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 12S 176W 18S 170W 20S 168W 25S 167W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 09S 169W 13S 163W 16S 160W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. TROUGH T4 17S 152W 21S 145W 25S 138W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T4. TROUGH T5 25S 156W 22S 149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T5. OUTSIDE STORM WARNING NUMBER 034 AND IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 22S AND BETWEEN 165E AND 175E, EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175E AND 135W, EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF EQ AND EAST OF 135W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean (Australia): Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U 07/1800Z nr 15.9S 110.4E, moving S 3 kt (Perth TCWC) – Published 07 Apr 2017 2228z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U

(= CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: TSR)

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Saturday 8 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 5) was located at 2:00 am AWST near
15.9S 110.4E,
that is 790 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 780 km north northwest of
Exmouth] and moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie has continued to intensify over the last 6 hours
and is a category 5 system over open waters northwest of WA. Ernie will
continue to intensify as it slowly tracks towards the south and then turn to
the west-southwest this morning and is expected to begin weakening from late
Saturday or early Sunday.

Gales are not expected on Christmas Island or the WA mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am AWST.

===============================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:16S110E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1835UTC 7 APRIL 2017

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal nine south (15.9S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal four east (110.4E)
Recent movement : south at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 120 knots
Central pressure: 922 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 120 knots near the centre easing to 95 knots by 1800 UTC 08
April.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 08 April: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.2 south 110.0 east
Central pressure 931 hPa.
Winds to 115 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 08 April: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.4 south 109.1 east
Central pressure 953 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 08 April 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE (13P) 260900Z position nr 18.4S 151.0E, moving WSW 03kt (JTWC) – Published 26 Mar 2017 1253z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Debbie (13P)

Tropical cyclone Debbie moving towards the coast, expected to intensify into a category 3 system this evening – Brisbane TCWC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15

Issued at 7:49 pm EST on Sunday 26 March 2017

Headline:

Tropical cyclone Debbie moving towards the coast, expected to intensify into a category 3 system this evening.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone

Innisfail to Lucinda, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 7:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 18.4 degrees South 150.9 degrees East, estimated to be 440 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 330 kilometres east northeast of Bowen.

Movement: west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Debbie is moving west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system tonight. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

Hazards:

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay tonight, and could extend to remaining areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence on Monday. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda during Monday evening or Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may then gradually extend further north to Lucinda during the day Monday and overnight into Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the centre.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides on Monday.

Residents between and between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, is also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Recommended Action:

People between Ayr and St Lawrence should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Cairns and Ayr, and inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Sunday 26 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

================================================================================

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE is currently located near 18.3 S 151.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). DEBBIE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DEBBIE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 18.3S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 151.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 18.6S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 19.0S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 19.5S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 20.0S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.9S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 21.6S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 260545Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.5 (55 TO 70 KNOTS) LATEST SATCON
ESTIMATES AROUND 65 KNOTS, AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT TPW IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS SLOWED THE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A
STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC 13P MAKES LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTAU05 APRF 260653
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:16S099E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0653UTC 26 MARCH 2017

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Caleb was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude ninety nine decimal four east (99.4E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre.

Winds above 34 knots Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant,
with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.0 south 98.8 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 27 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 16.0 south 97.7 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 26 March 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Signpost to UK SEVERE WEATHER, FLOOD WARNINGS and TORRO TORNADO WATCH – Updated 09 Aug 2014 2325z (GMT/UTC)

EX-Hurricane Bertha

TORRO TORNADO WATCH for much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England, Wales

and the Channel Islands.

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

Valid from 03:00 until 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 22:45GMT on Saturday 9th August 2014

Valid from/until: 03:00- 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England

Wales

Channel Islands

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

DISCUSSION

Deepening Atlantic storm with tropical airmass within its warm sector will cross the watch area during Sunday. Although the exact track is still somewhat uncertain, there are indications from several models that a dual-centred system will evolve. The first centre should move into Wales later tonight, with the main centre crossing SW England and heading NE to Lincs by afternoon, whilst the first centre tends to fill or is consumed by the second.

Strong lifting from a sharpening upper trough should steepen lapse rates enough for embedded convection to develop close to and to the south of both centres of low pressure, with wind shear favourable for severe weather, especially to the south and east of the second, deeper, low pressure area.

A mass of heavy rain is already moving in, and through the latter part of the night, embedded convection may affect parts of Wales and SW England, as the low pressure centre(s) move in. During Sunday morning, as the sharpening upper trough digs into the moist sector, it is possible that a squall line may develop across southern England/E Anglia. Additionally, ahead of the low pressure area moving from SW England to Lincs, convection may develop in the moist sector.

In each of these areas, low-level and deep layer wind shear appears sufficient for severe thunderstorms with strong winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The main caveat with this watch is that the maritime nature of the airmass would typically suggest fairly meagre lapse rates – however, global and mesoscale models indication fairly decent instability associated with this system (~1000J/Kg CAPE). If instability and shear can combine favourably, a strong tornado is possible.

The area from SW England to Lincs, and points south-east of there appear to have a higher risk of severe weather than elsewhere in the watch area. Please note this forecast has been issued early due to the fact the situation will not be monitored by TORRO overnight.

Forecaster: RPK

Torro Tornado Watch 2014/008 (Image: TORRO)

also UK SEVERE WEATHER & FLOOD WARNINGS

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2Ne

 

Mexico: Tropical Depression (Ex TS BORIS) 02E 041000Z nr 16.3N 93.8W, moving N at 5 knots (JTWC) – Updated 040614 1251z

Tropical Depression 02E (TWO-E)

BORIS WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK EASTERN MEXICO(NHC)

(Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española) (Scroll down for Spanish translation)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 040831
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT WED JUN 04 2014

BORIS WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK EASTERN MEXICO
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT0900 UTCINFORMATION
-
LOCATION16.2N 93.9W
ABOUT 85 MI140 KM E OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS35 MPH55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENTN OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE1003 MB29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREAPLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 200 AM PDT0900 UTCTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTHLONGITUDE 93.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH7 KM/HAND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACKTHE DEPRESION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH55
KM/HWITH HIGHER GUSTS. BORIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-
RAINFALLBORIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPORTS FROM
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE INDICATE THAT THE CITY OF TONALA ON
THE COAST OF CHIAPAS RECIEVED NEAR 8.5 INCHES213 MMOF RAIN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0214.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BORIS) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z NEAR 16.0N 93.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 93.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z 17.0N 93.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z 18.0N 93.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 93.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BORIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEHUANTEPEC, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

 

Other

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Jun, 2014 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BORIS (02E) currently located near 16.2 N 93.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

NASA Hurricane:

E. PACIFIC *Full Update* NASA Infrared Imagery Sees Heavy Rain Potential in Tropical Depression 2E
NASAs Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of Tropical Depression 2E that revealed high, very cold cloud top temperatures.FULL STORY/WARNINGS:
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/93e-eastern-pacific-ocean-june-2014

MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ22 KNHC 040830
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
0900 UTC WED JUN 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEATCENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7WPOST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KTGUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5WPOST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KTGUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800ZDISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

SPANISH

Depresin Tropical 02E ( TWO -E)

……… BORIS DEBILITA PERO SEGUIR REMOJO ORIENTAL MEXICO ……… ( NHC )

( Desplcese HACIA abajo prr la traduccin española ) ( Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsin de 5 das ( clic en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( clic en la imagen para la fuente )

Servicio Meteorolgico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

[ Imagen de la prediccin de 5 das de la pista prevista, y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

000
WTPZ32 TJSJ 040831
TCPEP2

BOLETN
DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT MIRCOLES 04 de junio 2014

… BORIS DEBILITA PERO SEGUIR REMOJO ORIENTAL MEXICO …
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … INFORMACIN
—————-
UBICACIN … 16,2 N 93.9W
ACERCA DE MI 85 … 140 KM E DE SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 35 MPH … 55 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … N O 360 GRADOS A 5 MPH … 7 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS
RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——-
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS .

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY COSTERA RELOJES O ADVERTENCIA EN EFECTO .

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR DE
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA .
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS 48 HORAS
———-
A LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS
ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.2 NORTE … LONGITUD 93.9 OESTE .
LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH … 7 KM / H … Y
SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24
HORAS . EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA … EL DEPRESION CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE
INLAND MS LEJOS .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 35 MPH … 55
KM / H … CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES . BORIS SE ESPERA PARA SER
BAJA REMANENTE TARDE HOY .
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
——–
LLUVIA … BORIS SE PREV QUE PRODUZCA CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SOBRE LA
Estados mexicanos de Oaxaca y Chiapas . ESTAS LLUVIAS adicionales sern
TRAER AISLADAS CANTIDADES TOTALES DE TORMENTA a tanto como 20 PULGADAS …
Especialmente en los terrenos ms altos . ESTAS LLUVIAS POSIBLEMENTE
RESULTADO EN INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO . INFORMES DE
EL SERVICIO DE TIEMPO MEXICANA INDICAN QUE LA CIUDAD DE TONALA EN
LA COSTA DE CHIAPAS RECIBIDO CERCA DE 8.5 PULGADAS … 213 MM … DE LLUVIA
DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS .
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
—–
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 800 AM PDT .

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

Centro de Advertencia de Tifones Conjunto ( JTWC )

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0214.gif

Google Earth Overlay grfico

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TIFN WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVERTENCIA / /
OBS /
1 . DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E ( BORIS ) ADVERTENCIA NR 007
Rebajado de 02E TORMENTA TROPICAL
01 ACTIVO CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC
Vientos mximos sostenidos en base al promedio de un minuto
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE

ADVERTENCIA POSICIN :
040600Z – CERCA 16.0N 93.9W
Los movimientos ms all de seis horas – 010 GRADOS A 05 KTS
POSICIN EXACTA EN EL PLAZO DE 040 NM
Posicin basada en el centro situado POR SATLITE
ACTUALIDAD DISTRIBUCIN DE VIENTO :
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 030 KT , KT 040 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
POSIT REPEAT: 16.0N 93.9W

Previsiones:
12 HRS , vlido en :
041800Z – 17.0N 93.7W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 025 KT , KT 035 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
Disipando COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL RELEVANTE SOBRE TIERRA
VECTOR DE 24 HR POSIT : 010 DEG / 05 KTS

24 HRS , vlido en :
050600Z – 18.0N 93.5W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 020 KT , KT 030 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
Disipa como CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE TIERRA

OBSERVACIONES:
041000Z POSICIN CERCA 16.3N 93.8W .
DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E ( BORIS ) , ubicado aproximadamente a 79 NM
Este-sureste de Tehuantepec, MEXICO , ha rastreado AT 05 NUDOS
EN LOS LTIMOS SEIS HORAS.
MXIMA altura de ola significativa AT 040600Z es de 10 pies . SIGUIENTE
ADVERTENCIAS EN 041600Z , 042200Z 050400Z Y .
/ /
NNNN

otro
TSR Logone Pacfico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 04 de junio 2014 09:00 GMT

Depresin Tropical BORIS ( 02E ) que actualmente se encuentra cerca de 16,2 N 93,9 W se prev a la huelga de la tierra a la siguiente verosimilitud ( s ) en el tiempo de espera determinado ( s ) :

Alerta Amarilla Pas ( s ) o provincia ( s )
Mxico
probabilidad de TS es del 70% en la actualidad

Tenga en cuenta que
Alerta amarilla ( elevada ) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10 % y 30 % de probabilidad , o TS a por encima de 50 % de probabilidad .
CAT 1 significa vientos de fuerza de huracn de al menos 74 mph , 119 km / ho 64 nudos de 1 minuto sostenido .
TS significa vientos de fuerza de tormenta tropical de por lo menos 39 mph , a 63 km / ho 34 nudos de 1 minuto sostenido .

Para obtener informacin de previsin grfica y ms detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

NASA Huracn:

E. PACFICO * actualizacin completa * imgenes de la NASA Infrared ve pesado Potencial Lluvia en la depresin tropical 2E
Satlite Aqua de la NASA captur una imagen infrarroja de la depresin tropical 2E que revel altos , top temperatures.FULL HISTORIA nube muy fra / ADVERTENCIAS :
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/93e-eastern-pacific-ocean-june-2014
MARTIMO
METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ22 TJSJ 040830
TCMEP2

DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS PRONSTICO / ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022014
0900 UTC MIERCOLES 04 de junio 2014

CAMBIOS EN LOS RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS .

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY COSTERA RELOJES O ADVERTENCIA EN EFECTO .

CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 16,2 N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSICIN EXACTA dentro de 40 NM

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL HACIA EL NORTE O 360 GRADOS A 4 KT

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA 1.003 MB
Vientos mximos sostenidos de 30 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 40 KT .
VIENTOS Y OLEAJE varan mucho en cada cuadrante. RADIOS EN NUTICA
MILES son los radios MAYOR SE ESPERA EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN QUE CUADRANTE .

REPETIR … CENTRO LOCALIZADO CERCA 16,2 N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA 16.0N 93.9W

Pronstico vlido 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7W … POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 25 KT … RAFAGAS 35 KT .

Pronstico vlido 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5W … POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS 30 KT .

05/1800Z VLIDO PRONSTICO … DISIPADO
SOLICITUD DE 3 INFORMES DE BUQUES POR HORA EN 300 MILLAS DE 16,2 N 93.9W

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA EN 04/1500Z

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

PassageWeather es una pgina web de tiempo para navegar GRATIS : http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http % 3A / / http://www.passageweather.com / maps / npacific / mappage.htm

No use cualquier informacin en este sitio para las decisiones de vida o muerte . Toda la informacin se concibe como complementario a las fuentes oficiales. Por favor refirase a la pgina web la agencia meteorolgica / oficial del gobierno de su pas por las advertencias locales, avisos y boletines .

Madagascar/ Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone (21S) HELLEN 010300Z nr 17.2S 46.0E, moving SSE at 5 knots (JTWC) Overland Depression (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 010414 0718z

Tropical Cyclone 21S Hellen

OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN) RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. (RSMC La Reunion)

ZCZC 073
WTIO30 FMEE 010013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/14/20132014
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/01 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
24H: 2014/04/02 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2014/04/02 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/04/03 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2014/04/03 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2014/04/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/05 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. THE RESI
DUAL LLCC, OVERLAND, IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
ACCORDING TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A MOVEMENT WEST TO SOUTH
WESTWARD FOR THE RESIDUAL LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST TO N
ORTH-EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-BUILDING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE.
NONE OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, INCLUDING THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE PREVISION, FORECASTS A RE-
INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE LOW WILL COME BACK OVER SEA AND CROSS THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.
LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE RSMC LA REUNION UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Apr, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HELLEN (21S) currently located near 17.0 S 46.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2114.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21S_312330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010000Z — NEAR 17.0S 46.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 46.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.7S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 46.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HELLEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) REVEALS THAT TC HELLEN HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME RAGGED AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED AWAY AND SHALLOWED. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION CONTINUE
TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TRACKING TC 21S BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH A CHANCE OF
REGENERATION WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE AFRICAN LANDMASS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING /

ZCZC 343
WTIO24 FMEE 311832 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2014 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INLAND 14 (EX-HELLEN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 45.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UP TO 25 NM FROM
THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, INLAND
24H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

 

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/indian/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Indian Ocean/ Australia/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone Gillian 251200Z nr 20.4S 103.7E, moving S at 07 knots (TCWC Perth) Max winds 50 knots – Updated 250314 1805z

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Indian Ocean MH370 missing aircraft Search & Rescue assets be aware.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Issued at 8:37 pm WST Tuesday 25 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Gillian is moving steadily in a south to southwesterly direction, well away from the Australian mainland.

Gillian is continuing to weaken and should drop below tropical cyclone intensity Wednesday morning.

 

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 25 2 20.4S 103.7E 55
+6hr 2 am March 26 1 20.8S 103.4E 80
+12hr 8 am March 26 1 21.2S 103.3E 100
+18hr 2 pm March 26 tropical low 21.4S 103.1E 125
+24hr 8 pm March 26 tropical low 21.5S 102.7E 145
+36hr 8 am March 27 tropical low 21.3S 101.5E 180
+48hr 8 pm March 27 tropical low 21.2S 100.0E 220
+60hr 8 am March 28 tropical low 21.2S 98.0E 255
+72hr 8 pm March 28 tropical low 21.0S 96.7E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

 

 

(Goaty: See information on Tropical cyclone intensity)

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 20:07 WIB 25/03/2014

Siklon Tropis GILLIAN

Kondisi tanggal 25/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 20.4LS, 103.7BT (sekitar 1620 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : selatan, kecepatan 7 knots (13 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 26/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.5LS, 102.7BT (sekitar 1760 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : Barat, bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 27/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.2LS, 100.0BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 20 knots (35 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 28/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.0LS, 96.7BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 15 knots (30 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis GILLIAN ini memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Gelombang laut 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Enggano – Bengkulu, Perairan barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is issued by JAKARTA CENTRE
In : 20:07 pm 03/25/2014
 

Tropical Cyclone Gillian 

Conditions dated 25/03/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 20.4LS , 103.7BT ( approximately 1620 miles south southwest of New York)
Motion direction : south , speed of 7 knots ( 13 km / h ) moving away from the territory of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed ​​: 50 knots ( 95 km / h )
 

Predicted 24- hour , date 03/26/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.5LS , 102.7BT ( approximately 1760 miles south southwest of New York)
Motion Direction : West , moving away from the territory of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 30 knots ( 55 km / h )
 

Prediction 48 hours , date 03/27/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.2LS , 100.0BT
Motion Direction : West moving away from parts of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 20 knots ( 35 km / h )
 

Prediction 72 hours , date 03/28/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.0LS , 96.7BT
Motion Direction : West moving away from parts of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 15 knots ( 30 km / h )
 

IMPACT OF WEATHER IN INDONESIA :
Gillian tropical cyclone is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as :
– Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters Enggano – Bengkulu , Lampung western waters , the southern part of the Sunda Strait , waters south of Banten

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1714.gif

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_250532sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 19.6S 103.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 103.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 20.4S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 20.7S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 103.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 250532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 250519Z AMSR2 PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 17P IS
CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:20S104E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1241UTC 25 MARCH 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Gillian was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal four south (20.4S)
longitude one hundred and three decimal seven east (103.7E)
Recent movement : south at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 988 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semi circle, extending
to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0600 UTC 26
March.

Winds above 48 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell until 1200 UTC 25 March.

Winds above 34 knots within 30 nautical miles of the centre in the northwest
quadrant, extending to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other
quadrants, with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell until 0600
UTC 26 March.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.2 south 103.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 21.5 south 102.7 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 March 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

METAREA XI

METAREA X

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com/maps/oceania/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Tropical Depression “CALOY” (94W) 211200Z nr 08N 128E, moving W slowly (JMA) – Published 210314 2128z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” 

(Invest 94W)

PHILIPPINES: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SURIGAO DEL NORTE (PAGASA)

WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY”
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 21 MARCH 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SURIGAO DEL NORTE.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “CALOY” was estimated based on all available data at 160 km East of Surigao City (9.6°N, 127.0°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 45 kph near the center.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 15 kph.

Forecast Positions: Tropical Depression “CALOY” is expected to be at 50 km South Southeast of Cebu City by tomorrow evening and at 25 km South of Cuyo Island by Sunday evening. By Monday evening, it is expected to be at 200 km North Northwest of Puerto Princesa City.

PSWS#1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

Visayas:Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Cebu, Negros Provinces, Guimaras, Iloilo and Antique

Mindanao:Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte incl. Siargao, Dinagat, Northern Agusan del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental and Camiguin
Potential Impacts of the Winds

•Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
•Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
•Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
•Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
•Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is risky

•Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lifted.
•Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 – 15 mm per hour (moderate – heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
•Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Eastern Visayas due to the Northeast Monsoon.
•The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Japan Meteorological agency


Analysis Chart (JMA) (Click image for animation/source)

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 968 HPA
AT 43N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 150E TO 45N 153E 43N 156E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 39N 161E 34N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 35N 155E 28N 147E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 46N 154E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 49N 157E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 180E EAST 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 31N 120E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 177E ESE 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Depression Caloy Over the Southern Philippines

– WxPacWx

Rainfall Outlook

Rainfall Outlook

“Tropical Depression Caloy was named Friday morning by PAGASA following a night of organization and intensification from the

TD Caloy

low pressure center in the Philippine Sea.

Despite this storm being branded a name (the third PAGASA named storm already in 2014) the forecast has changed very little from what we have been discussing all week.

Expect the low to come ashore in Northern Mindanao throughout the weekend but based on IR satellite imagery a unskilled observer might think Visayas is seeing landfall.

That is because of the large moisture inflow in to the storm along Caloys northern Periphery. This will mean the highest risk areas for flooding, landslides and high winds will be north of the storms track in the areas displayed in red blow.

Caloy1 Click the Link for a Full Bulletin Update

Futhermore gale force winds are anticipated up and down the eastern seaboards of the Philippines this coming weekend. Not directly associated with Caloy though but associated with Caloys interaction with a ridging high pressure area pushing in out of China. This is producing a “high gradient induced wind field”. Winds sustained up and down the coastline are likely to be around 50kph. Even in Manila farther north expect breezy conditions this weekend.

Impacts

Impacts

The rain will be the larger impact though from the storm though. Some areas as much as 500mm could fall with generally 100-200mm in the forecast. As mentioned before there is a risk of flooding and landslides in these conditions. Residents in low lying areas and near large rivers should take extra caution with this weekend as persistent rains push on shore.

The video update below is a whole 1 minute long, why? Because my internet cut out and never came back on. So you got what you got right there…

Stay safe out there everyone” – //westernpacificweather.com

NASA’s Aqua satellite sees Tropical System 94W affecting Philippines – phys.org

NASA's Aqua satellite sees Tropical System 94W affecting Philippines
The MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this visible image of low pressure “System 94W” coming together east of the southern Philippines on March 21. Credit: NRL/NASA(via phys.org)

“The tropical low pressure area centered just east of the southern Philippines appeared more organized on visible imagery from NASA’s Aqua satellite on March 21. System 94W appears to be developing and the Philippine authorities have already issued warnings on the system locally designated as “Caloy.”

The MODIS instrument (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of System 94W coming together east of the southern Philippines on March 21 at 5:25 UTC/1:25 a.m. EDT. The image revealed a circulation with the center over the open waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The image showed bands of thunderstorms from System 94W’s western quadrant was draped over the eastern Mindanao region (southern area) of the Philippines and bands of thunderstorms from the storm were over the waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean.

Warnings were posted by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on March 21 at 5 p.m. Signal No. 1 is in effect for parts of the Visayas and Mindanao regions of the Philippines today, March 21.

Signal No. 1 means that sustained winds of 18.6-37.2 mph/30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours. In Visayas, those areas under Signal No. 1 include: Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, the southern part of Negros Occidental and the southern part of Negros Oriental.

In Mindanao, Signal No. 1 is in effect for Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, the southern part of Negros Occidental, and the southern part of Negros Oriental. For additional updates from PAGASA, please visit: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph//

On March 21 at 5 p.m. local time, PAGASA noted that the center of System 94W was located near 8.9 north latitude and 127.8 east longitude, about 310 km/192.6 miles northeast of Davao City or at 170 km/105.6 miles East Northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives System 94W a high chance for developing into a tropical depression in the next day. Meanwhile, PAGASA expects the low to move to the west-northwest over the next couple of days and cross the southern Philippines.” –

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9414.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 130.8E TO 8.7N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201841Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 191304Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS,
PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212200Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

WTPH RPMM 211200
TTT WARNING 04

AT 1200 21 MARCH TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED AT ZERO NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221200 ZERO NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST AT 231200 ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 241200 ONE ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD

WEATHER MANILA

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 211800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 964 HPA
AT 45N 152E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 152E TO 47N 156E 45N 160E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 41N 165E 37N 168E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 36N 158E 30N 152E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 48N 156E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 51N 159E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 30N 122E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 180E EAST 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1800

WWHK82 VHHH 211800
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALES OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.
SYNOPSIS (211800UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
THE INTENSE NORTHEAST MONSOON IS BRINGING GALES TO THE
WARNING AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SEAS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SCS AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
SCATTERED SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS (TS)
OVER SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE STRAIT OF MALACCA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Melanesia/Fiji/Cook Islands: Tropical Cyclone MIKE 191800Z nr 24.6S 158.4W, moving SE at 22 knots – Updated 190314 1905z

Tropical Cyclone MIKE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone MIKE

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 70 issued 1407 UTC Wednesday 19 March 2014

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone MIKE

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm March 19 1 22.2S 157.7W 110
+6hr 6 pm March 19 1 23.3S 157.4W 140
+12hr 12 am March 20 1 24.3S 157.7W 165
+18hr 6 am March 20 1 25.2S 158.2W 195
+24hr 12 pm March 20 1 26.1S 158.7W 220
+36hr 12 am March 21 2 28.2S 159.8W 280
+48hr 12 pm March 21 2 30.2S 160.7W 345
+60hr 12 am March 22 1 32.2S 160.9W 430
+72hr 12 pm March 22 1 34.5S 161.1W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 19/1355 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE 990HPA CAT1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2S
157.7W AT 191200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 360 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 2.5,
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 24.3S 157.7W MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 26.1S 158.7W MOV SSW AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 28.2S 159.8W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 30.2S 160.7W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 192000 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY TWO for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 19/1846 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR
TAKUTEA, ATIU, MATIARO AND MAUKE.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOK
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE [990HPA] CAT1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24
DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 158 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 160 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 220 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA
AT 191800UTC. CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22
KNOTS. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF MANGAIA AT 200600UTC.

FOR MANGAIA:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 35 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING
INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE WILL BE ISSUED AT 192200 UTC OR EARLIER.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2014.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/20P_190532sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001   
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
190600Z — NEAR 20.5S 159.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 159.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 23.5S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 25.4S 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 27.1S 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 29.5S 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 159.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN
DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 190422Z 37
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC THAT IT
FAIRLY COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR ANIMATION
AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE
SEEN IN THE SSMIS IMAGE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WIDELY
RANGE FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC MIKE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST. NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE WHILE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THESE FACTORS WILL ADDITIONALLY BEGIN TO
TURN THE SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE STRONGER WINDS
MIGRATE TO THE PERIPHERY AND THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS BECOME WEAK. BY
TAU 48, TC 20P WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM INTO A COLD
CORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY
SPREAD BUT OVERALL AGREES WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN
FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190230Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190230).//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Mar, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MIKE (20P) currently located near 20.5 S 159.3 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Avarua (21.2 S, 159.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

Pacific High Seas Forecast

Issued by MetService, NZ, at 8:36pm Wednesday 19 Mar 2014 (Local Time)

Forecast valid to 1:00am Friday 21 Mar 2014: Slow moving ridge 42S 170W 41S 152W 30S 140W 30S 120W. North of ridge of west of 140W: Southeast quarter 25kt, with gales as in warnings 320 and 324, heavy easterly swells developing west of 150W after 191200UTC, and poor visibility in rain west of 150W spreading south to 32S by 201200UTC. Low 1003hPa near 40S 127W moving southsoutheast 15kt.Within 480 nautical miles of low: Clockwise winds 25kt, with gales as in warning 318, and poor visibility in rain at times in sector from north through east to west.Front 49S 163W 54S 154W 58S 143W moving eastnortheast 25kt.Southwest of front:Southwest 25kt developing after 191800UTC. Areas of fog south of 45S and west of 160W.

Outlook following 72 hours

Tropical Cyclone Mike near 30S 165W southsouthwest. Clockwise 35 to 45kt about cyclone with heavy swells. Ridge along 40S moving slowly south.North of ridge, Easterly quarter 20 to 30kt tending clockwise and rising to gale about cyclone. South of ridge, westerly quarter 20 to 30kt. Heavy northeast swell east of 130W and south 40S, easing by 211200UTC.

GALE WARNING 325
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 191200UTC
Low 998hPa near 42S 126W moving south 10kt.
In a belt 240 nautical miles wide centred on a line 48S 120W 44S 128W 40S 127W: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving southwest 10kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 318.

Issued at 1:45am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

GALE WARNING 327
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 191200UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
In an area bounded by 25S 169W 25S 151W 30S 155W 30S 163W 29S 169W 25S 169W: Easterly 35kt.
Gale area slow moving.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 320.

Issued at 1:45am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 331
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Copy of GALE WARN issued by NADI at 19-Mar-2014 13:17 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone MIKE [990hPa] centre was located near 22.2 South 157.7 West at 191200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 22.2S 157.7W at 191200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 22 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the northwest
quadrant and within 360 nautical miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 24.3S 157.7W at 200000 UTC
and near 26.1S 158.7W at 201200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 324.

Issued at 2:27am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Zealand: LOW 991hPa Ex-Tropical #Cyclone 18F Lusi 151200Z nr 37S 171E, moving S at 15 kts. Expected to cross South Island overnight Sunday (RSMC Wellington) – Updated 150314 1442z

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi

Expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday (RSMC Wellington)

New Zealand be aware!

Tropical Cyclone Lusi

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.

ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:27 pm 15-Mar-2014

Ex-cyclone Lusi continues to bring heavy rain and easterly gales to many places this weekend, but conditions are improving over the upper North Island tonight.

A depression – formerly Tropical Cyclone Lusi – lies west of Northland this evening and is expected to be centred about 300km west of Auckland at midnight tonight. The low will then move southwards to cross the upper South Island Sunday evening. Widespread rain and easterly gales are spreading southwards, but have eased in Northland this evening. The heaviest falls this afternoon and evening have been in Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne, but although still heavy, the rain there is slowly easing. The heaviest falls tonight and during Sunday are forecast for the upper South Island, where the ranges of Nelson could see up to 200mm of rain.

Warnings for heavy rain or severe gales are still in place from Auckland to north Otago. Please note, that a warning for heavy northwesterly rain is now in place for Buller.

As the low crosses the upper South Island Sunday night, northwest gales are forecast to affect central New Zealand, and warnings are in place for Marlborough, Wellington, and Wairarapa south of Masterton. Gusts could reach 130km/h from Sunday evening to early Monday morning.

This continues to be a significant adverse weather event, affecting many parts of the country. The heavy rain is likely to cause slips and surface flooding, and the severe easterly gales could make driving hazardous, lift roofs, and bring down trees and powerlines. People are strongly advised to exercise caution, and to stay up to date with the latest forecasts, Warnings and Watches.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty west of Kawerau

FORECAST

Heavy rain continues to fall. In the 12 hours from 8pm today to 8am Sunday, expect a further 50-60mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Gisborne and eastern Bay of Plenty

FORECAST

Heavy rain has set in. In the 16 hours from 8pm today to noon Sunday, expect 80 to 100mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour this evening (Saturday).

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Hawkes Bay

FORECAST

Heavy rain has set in. In the 12 hours from 8pm Saturday to 8am Sunday, expect a further 60 to 90mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 15-20mm per hour this evening (evening).

AREA/S AFFECTED

All of Nelson

FORECAST

Heavy easterly rain has set in this evening. The flow should turn north to northwesterly during Sunday. In the 34 hours from 8pm Saturday to 6am Monday, expect 150 to 200mm of rain to accumulate in the ranges and about 100mm over the Tasman Bay lowlands.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3500 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Marlborough, including the Kaikoura Ranges

FORECAST

Heavy easterly rain is forecast to set in this evening (Saturday), then later Sunday the flow should turn northwest. In the 24 hours from 9pm today to 9pm Sunday, expect 120 to 150mm of rain to accumulate.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 4000 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Hills and coastal ranges of South Canterbury and North Otago

FORECAST

Strong northeasterlies and rain are forecast for South Canterbury and North Otago through most of Sunday, easing late evening. In the 18 hours from 3am to 9pm Sunday expect 70 to 100mm on the coastal hills and ranges. During this time 30 to 50mm rain is likely on the coastal lowlands.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Buller north of Westport

FORECAST

Rain is forecast to become heavy Sunday afternoon, as northeast winds turn strong northwesterly. In the 12 hours from 3pm Sunday till 3am Monday, expect 80-120mm of rain to accumulate about the ranges. Peak intensities of 15-25mm/hr Sunday evening.

FREEZING LEVEL: 3500 metres.

STRONG WIND WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Auckland

FORECAST

Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening with gusts of 120 km/h. Winds should gradually ease tonight.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The Kaimai Range, and Waikato near the Kaimais, including Thames

FORECAST

Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening, with gusts of 130 km/h in exposed places. Winds should ease tonight.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Marlborough Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton

FORECAST

Northwest winds are expected to rise to gale in exposed parts of Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton Sunday evening. From about 8pm Sunday to 6am Monday severe gales are expected with gusts of 130 km/h.

WARNINGS NO LONGER IN FORCE

HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland

Heavy rain is easing this evening, and the warning has been lifted.

STRONG WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland

Winds have eased and the warning has been lifted.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 am Sunday 16-Mar-2014

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 2:09pm Saturday 15 Mar 2014
Valid from Monday 17 March 2014 to Thursday 20 March 2014

Cyclone Lusi is expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday, then move away to the east and weaken on Monday. Warnings and Watches are in force for many regions.

On Monday, as Lusi moves eastwards, northwest gales are likely in parts of central New Zealand. Warnings are already in place for Marlborough, Wellington and southern Wairarapa for Sunday evening to Monday morning, hence high confidence is indicated in those areas, and there is moderate confidence of severe northwest gales in parts of Canterbury too. The trend, however, is for winds to ease during Monday.

The moist northwest winds also bring continued rain for northern Westland,Buller and northwest Nelson, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in these areas through Monday morning.

From about midday Monday, a new front moves onto the lower South Island,bringing more heavy rain, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in Fiordland and Westland from Monday into Tuesday.

Finally, a second front should reach Fiordland later on Wednesday, and at this stage we have low confidence of rainfall totals meeting warning criteria there.

map showing severe weather outlook

Low confidence:
a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence:
a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30NZST

You can view the latest Severe Weather Video update here: http://metservice.com/tv/#severe

Please stay up to date with all the latest Severe Warnings and Watches

(All images in this section: metservice.com) (Click on images to link to source)

Press Reports

Australia Network News

Strong wind warnings in place in New Zealand as ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi passes North Island

 

Photo: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi brings strong and gale force winds to New Zealand’s North Island, March 15, 2014. (MetService)

 

New Zealand’s weather bureau has issued strong wind and gale force wind warnings as ex-tropical cyclone Lusi moves over the North Island.

The Met Service says wind gusts of around 130 kilometres an hour have been recorded at Cape Reinga, on the northwest tip of the North Island.

Auckland has experienced wind gusts of almost 90 kilometres an hour.

There have also been heavy rainfalls overnight on the North Island, and warnings are in place for the South Island as the depression moves south.

The weather system is expected to cross the South Island on Sunday then weaken as it moves east on Monday.

So far, 10 people have died and two are missing in Vanuatu after Cyclone Lusi hit the Pacific nation.

Shadrack Welegtabit, the director of the National Disaster Management Office in Port Vila says another tropical low is forming in the east of the country.

While it is developing, it is not expected to become a cyclone soon.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says cyclone Lusi caused widespread flooding and damaged crops.

ABC/AFP

MARITIME

New Zealand

Coastal Storm Warnings

Storm warnings for: CASTLEPOINT, CONWAY, COOK

Coastal Gale Warnings

Gale warnings for: ABEL, BRETT, CHALMERS, COLVILLE, GREY, KAIPARA, PLENTY, PORTLAND, RAGLAN, RANGITATA, STEPHENS

Auckland VHF

GALE WARNING A23 FOR MANUKAU AND WAITEMATA HARBOURS, AND THE HAURAKI GULF
Northeast 35 knots gusting 45 knots easing to northerly 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning and below advisory criteria this afternoon.
GALE WARNING A23 FOR BREAM HEAD TO CAPE COLVILLE
Northeast 40 knots gusting 50 knots easing to northerly 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning and below advisory criteria this afternoon.
This warning cancels and replaces ADVISORY A20

Oceanic Warnings

High seas warnings for: FORTIES, PACIFIC, SOUTHERN, SUBTROPIC

METAREA XIV

PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone Hadi: 101200Z near 18.7S 151.8E, moving ENE at 5 knots (away from QLD) (TCWC Brisbane) – Updated 100314 1422z

Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

 

Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

Issued at 11:20 pm EST Monday 10 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

 

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Hadi remains a CATEGORY 1, and the intensification trend that the system displayed earlier today has halted in the past few hours. The cyclone is currently moving in an east-northeasterly direction at about 10 kilometres per hour and is expected to remain on a similar track overnight, with a slight acceleration towards the northeast during the day on Tuesday. This will take the cyclone further away from the Queensland coast.

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 10 1 18.7S 151.8E 75
+6hr 4 am March 11 1 18.3S 152.1E 95
+12hr 10 am March 11 1 18.0S 152.3E 120
+18hr 4 pm March 11 1 17.6S 152.8E 140
+24hr 10 pm March 11 1 16.9S 153.3E 165
+36hr 10 am March 12 1 15.6S 154.5E 200
+48hr 10 pm March 12 1 14.5S 157.4E 235
+60hr 10 am March 13 1 13.5S 160.0E 275
+72hr 10 pm March 13 1 12.4S 163.0E 310

 

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

 

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 am EST Tuesday

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:57 pm EST on Monday 10 March 2014
At 10 pm EST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Category 1) with central pressure
998 hPa was located
over the Coral Sea near latitude 18.7 south longitude 151.8 east, which is
about 350 km east northeast of Hamilton Island.

Tropical Cyclone Hadi remains a CATEGORY 1, and the intensification trend that
the system displayed earlier today has halted in the past few hours. The
cyclone is currently moving in an east-northeasterly direction at about 10
kilometres per hour and is expected to remain on a similar track overnight,
with a slight acceleration towards the northeast during the day on Tuesday.
This will take the cyclone further away from the Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST Tuesday.

Preparation & safety

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

QLD: EMQ

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1914.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19P_100532sams.jpg

WTPS33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001   
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 18.9S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 151.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.6S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 17.8S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 17.2S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 15.8S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 13.4S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 12.7S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 13.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 151.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 100510Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS THE LLCC
MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF AMBIGUITY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS OFFSETTING STRONG TO MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC HADI IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG A WEAK PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
NER IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RELAX, ALTHOUGH REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION REACHING 55 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY SPREAD
WITH A 500NM SPREAD BY TAU 48. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100200Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 100200). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1301UTC 10 MARCH 2014

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hadi was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal seven south (18.7S)
longitude one hundred and fifty one decimal eight east (151.8E)
Recent movement : east northeast at 5 knots
Maximum winds   : 40 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 0000 UTC 11
March.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 11 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 18.0 south 152.3 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.
At 1200 UTC 11 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.9 south 153.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 10 March 2014.

WEATHER BRISBANE

PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/coralsea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Tropical Low 1 – Cyclone WARNING Coastal areas from Daly River Mouth NT to Kalumburu WA. 141200Z nr 13.7S 131.3E, moving SW at 9 knots (BoM) – 140114 1620z

Tropical Low 1

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Sun Jan 12 10:30:00 2014 at Sun Jan 12 20:30:00 2014 AEST

MSLP Analysis for Mon Jan 13 06:00:00 2014 AUTC

Australian Weather Watch Radar Network (link)

NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 11:01 pm CST Tuesday 14 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities, there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT border should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (CST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 14 tropical low 13.7S 131.3E 45
+6hr 4 am January 15 tropical low 14.3S 130.7E 70
+12hr 10 am January 15 tropical low 14.9S 130.0E 90
+18hr 4 pm January 15 tropical low 15.4S 129.5E 115
+24hr 10 pm January 15 tropical low 16.0S 129.1E 135
+36hr 10 am January 16 tropical low 17.5S 128.5E 175
+48hr 10 pm January 16 tropical low 18.9S 127.9E 210
+60hr 10 am January 17 tropical low 19.6S 126.9E 245
+72hr 10 pm January 17 tropical low 20.0S 125.7E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday

WA

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 9:32 pm WST Tuesday 14 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities, there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT border should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm January 14 tropical low 13.7S 131.3E 45
+6hr 2 am January 15 tropical low 14.3S 130.7E 70
+12hr 8 am January 15 tropical low 14.9S 130.0E 90
+18hr 2 pm January 15 tropical low 15.4S 129.5E 115
+24hr 8 pm January 15 tropical low 16.0S 129.1E 135
+36hr 8 am January 16 tropical low 17.5S 128.5E 175
+48hr 8 pm January 16 tropical low 18.9S 127.9E 210
+60hr 8 am January 17 tropical low 19.6S 126.9E 245
+72hr 8 pm January 17 tropical low 20.0S 125.7E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 12:30 am WST Wednesday

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9  
Issued at 10:55 pm CST [9:25 pm WST] on Tuesday 14 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
150 kilometres south southeast of Darwin and
395 kilometres east northeast of Wyndham and
moving southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move
in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If
the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then
there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday
morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth
and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border
during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly
River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities,
there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the
NT border should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near…… 13.7 degrees South 131.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure……… 996 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday 15 January [12:30 am
WST Wednesday 15 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210IDD20040

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Heavy Rainfall and Damaging Winds
for people in the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem, Roper-McArthur, Victoria River and Barkly Districts, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands
Issued at 11:07 pm CST on Tuesday 14 January 2014

Synoptic Situation: At 9:30 pm CST a TROPICAL LOW 996 hPa, was near latitude
13.7S, longitude 131.3E, about 150 kilometres south southeast of Darwin. The
low is currently over the northwest Top End and is expected to move in a
southwest direction, close to the coast near the NT/WA Border.

Heavy rain over the Arnhem, eastern Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts,
including the Tiwi Islands may lead to flash flooding overnight and during
Wednesday.

A vigorous monsoon has developed along the north coast of the Top End.
Monsoonal squalls with locally damaging wind gusts up to 95 km/h are expected
along the Territory coastline tonight and during Wednesday. Locally damaging
wind gusts to 95 km/h are also possible with thunderstorms over the
Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts, extending into the Victoria
River and Barkly Districts on Wednesday afternoon.

A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for this system – telephone 1300 659
211 (NT)

Noonamah in Darwin’s rural area has received 153.2 mm of rain between 9am and
10:30pm today and flash flooding has also been reported in the Darwin rural
area.  Upper Adelaide River has also reported 135.8 mm of rain between 9am and
10:30pm today.

McCluer Island on the north Arnhem coast has reported 83 km/h wind gusts at
11:12 am and at 6:01pm today.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure
loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous – avoid flooded roads and watercourses.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am CST Wednesday 15 January.

This warning is also available on telephone 1300 659 214 or on the internet at
http://www.bom.gov.au.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/132200Z-141800ZJAN2014//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131951ZJAN2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 131800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.9S 73.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 132100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
131.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DARWIN CONTINUES TO INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF 997 MB WITH 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF UP
TO 7 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER,
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LAND; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODELS
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

MARITIME

IDD20110
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For waters from WA/NT Border to Cape Wessel
Issued at 11:05 pm CST on Tuesday 14 January 2014

Synoptic Situation
At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was located within 25 nautical miles of 13.7 S
131.3 E about 80 nautical miles south southeast of Darwin with central pressure
996 hectopascals moving southwest at 9 knots.

The low is expected to move southwest over the western Top End and may move
into the Timor Sea during Wednesday. The low may develop into a tropical
cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours if it moves over water.

Centre forecast to be within 75 nautical miles of 16.0 S 129.1 E about 240
nautical miles south southwest of Darwin at 9:30 pm CST Wednesday.

Gale Warning
From Daly River Mouth to WA/NT Border…
West to southwest winds 20/25 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots overnight. Winds
increasing further to clockwise 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of the low
if it develops into a cyclone. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas to 2 metres,
rising to 3 metres overnight, and to 3.5 metres if the low develops into a
cyclone. A 2 metre westerly swell developing on Wednesday.

Strong Wind Warning
From Daly River Mouth to Cape Wessel….
Southwest to northwest winds 20/30 knots between Daly River Mouth and Cape
Wessel. Winds reaching 25/33 knots over offshore waters between Cape Don and
Cape Wessel, easing in the morning. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas rising
to 3 metres. A 2 to 3 metre west to northwest swell over offshore waters in the
north, extending to offshore waters in the west later Wednesday. These
conditions should persist for another 24 to 48 hours.

The next warning will be issued by 2:00 AM CST.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

————————– End of warning —————————-

METAREA10&11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_NORTHERN-AREA / 1340

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:14S131E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1340UTC 14 JANUARY 2014

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal seven south (13.7S)
longitude one hundred and thirty one decimal three east (131.3E) over land.
Recent movement : southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds   : 20 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone over the southern Timor Sea in the
next 6 to 18 hours.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 20 knots near the centre.

Clockwise winds 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre may develop if
the low moves over water, with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 15 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.9 south 130.0 east over
land
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots
At 1200 UTC 15 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 16.0 south 129.1 east over
land
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 20 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 14 January 2014.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Australia: Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (=CAT1 Hurricane SS) 302100Z nr 21.6S 117.2E, moving SW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 311213 1035z

Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (JTWC)

= CAT1 strength (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Severe Tropical Cyclone (Intensity Category 1) Christine BOM

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the Pilbara including
Paraburdoo, Tom Price and Newman extending into central WA to include Three
Rivers, Wiluna and Leinster.

National Radar image

National Radar image (Image: BOM)
CLICK IMAGE FOR RADAR ANIMATION

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone Christine

Issued at 2:33 pm WST Tuesday 31 December 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 50.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Christine has weakened to a Category 1 Cyclone as it moves over southern parts of the Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne. Christine has started moving south southeast and is expected to accelerate towards the southeast tonight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring in southern parts of the Pilbara and should extend into the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and the far northern Goldfields this afternoon and evening before the cyclone weakens overnight.

After the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity overnight, severe winds are likely to continue on the northeastern side of the system during Wednesday as it moves quickly across southeastern WA.

Heavy rainfall is possible near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings have been issued for the Pilbara.
DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near Tom Price and Paraburdoo. You need to immediately head to shelter and stay indoors away from doors and windows.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Newman and inland to the Collier Ranges and Three Rivers including Kumarina and east to Granite Peak and southwest to Wiluna, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between De Grey and Mardie including Marble Bar, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected. People still need to take caution when heading outside as there may still be fallen debris.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Name:Tropical Cyclone Christine

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm December 31 1 23.5S 117.4E 35
+6hr 8 pm December 31 1 24.7S 118.5E 60
+12hr 2 am January 1 1 25.9S 119.8E 80
+18hr 8 am January 1 tropical low 27.3S 121.6E 105
+24hr 2 pm January 1 tropical low 28.8S 123.5E 130
+36hr 2 am January 2 tropical low 30.3S 128.5E 165
+48hr 2 pm January 2 tropical low 32.1S 134.1E 200
+60hr 2 am January 3 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 2 pm January 3 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning CentreMedia: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued at 2:33 pm WST on Tuesday 31 December 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the Pilbara including
Paraburdoo, Tom Price and Newman extending into central WA to include Three
Rivers, Wiluna and Leinster.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Christine, Category 1, was estimated to be
45 kilometres southwest of Paraburdoo and
315 kilometres south of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour.

Christine has weakened to a Category 1 Cyclone as it moves over southern parts
of the Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne. Christine has started moving
south southeast and is expected to accelerate towards the southeast tonight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour are possible near the
cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring in southern
parts of the Pilbara and should extend into the eastern Gascoyne, far western
Interior and the far northern Goldfields this afternoon and evening before the
cyclone weakens overnight.

After the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity overnight, severe
winds are likely to continue on the northeastern side of the system during
Wednesday as it moves quickly across southeastern WA.

Heavy rainfall is possible near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings have been
issued for the Pilbara.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near Tom Price and Paraburdoo. You need to immediately
head to shelter and stay indoors away from doors and windows.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Newman and inland to the Collier Ranges and Three
Rivers including Kumarina and east to Granite Peak and southwest to Wiluna,
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between De Grey and Mardie including Marble Bar,
Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson,
Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica are advised that the threat of strong winds
is no longer expected. People still need to take caution when heading outside
as there may still be fallen debris.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Details of the Tropical Cyclone Christine at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near…… 23.5 degrees South 117.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 1
.Central pressure……… 983 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 31 December.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

WA: DFES

Australian Red Cross

Twitter @RedCrossAU

redcross.org.au

Call theRed Cross office in your state and ask for the emergency services department.

You can also email them.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0514.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_301132sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 302100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 21.1S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 117.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 23.2S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 25.5S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 27.9S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS TC 05S MOVES OVER
LAND; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A 20-NM DIAMETER EYE. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL NEAR
301400Z AND TRACKED OVER ROEBOURNE AIRPORT, WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 71 KNOTS GUSTING TO 93 KNOTS WITH A
MINIMUM SLP OF 958 MB. TC CHRISTINE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO
THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 30 Dec, 2013 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE (05S) currently located near 21.1 S 117.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

NONE

Italy: Sardinia hit by deadly Cyclone Cleopatra 17 dead; state of emergency declared – 191113 1350z

Italy – Current severe weather warnings (Meteoalarm)

Italy declares state of emergency in Sardinia after deadly cyclone

Submerged cars are seen on a flooded street in San Gavino Monreale on Sardina island November 18, 2013. REUTERS/Rosaspress

Submerged cars are seen on a flooded street in San Gavino Monreale on Sardina island November 18, 2013. REUTERS/Rosaspress

By James Mackenzie

“ROME (Reuters) – At least 17 people have been killed in flooding and hundreds made homeless after a cyclone swept over the Mediterranean island of Sardinia, Italian authorities said on Tuesday.

The government declared a state of emergency after Cyclone Cleopatra dropped 450mm of rain in an hour and a half overnight, causing rivers to burst their banks, sweeping away cars and flooding homes across the island.

“This is a national tragedy,” Prime Minister Enrico Letta said.

The declaration of a state of emergency will allow resources to be freed up more quickly to reach devastated areas, with swathes of the island under muddy flood waters that covered cars and swamped houses.

The government also set aside 20 million euros ($27 million) in immediate emergency funds to help the rescue and clean-up work.

The mayor of Olbia, the northeastern Sardinian town among the worst-affected areas, said the sudden flooding had burst “like a bomb” with the same amount of water falling in 90 minutes as falls in the city of Milan in six months.

Mayor Gianni Giovannelli said houses across the area had been left half-submerged by the floods and rescuers were still searching for possible victims.

“We’ve just found a dead child we had been searching all night for,” he told SkyTG24 television.

Beyond the immediate casualties, the disaster raised questions about how well prepared Italy’s cash-strapped local governments, under increasing financial pressure after more than two years or recession, are to deal with sudden emergencies.

“We’re facing an exceptional event here which has put our system of territorial planning and management into crisis,” said Antonello Frau, deputy head of the island’s geological service.

“We really have to assess how we manage these situations, which are becoming more frequent.”

RED CROSS

Flooding and landslides have been common in Italy, dominated in many areas by rugged mountain ranges.

However Legambiente, Italy’s main environmental group, said the disaster showed there was an urgent need to step up measures to handle floods and other disasters, a call backed by the national geological council.

It said more than 6 million Italians faced a potential risk from flooding but it said the risk had been made worse by reckless building, particularly in coastal areas.

“This is not just the fault of climate change,” the association’s president, Gian Vito Graziano, said in a statement.

The Red Cross said hundreds of people had been forced out of their homes and into temporary shelters set up in sports halls and other centres. Several bridges were swept away in Olbia and in the region near the central town of Nuoro.

“The situation is tragic,” regional governor Ugo Cappellacci told SkyTG24 television. “The hotels in Olbia are full of people who have had to escape, but there are thousands who have damage to their homes.”

($1 = 0.7394 euros)

(Additional reporting by Naomi O’Leary and Roberto Landucci; Editing by Angus MacSwan)”

Other Reports

Sardinia hit by deadly cyclone and flooding

BBC

(Video credit: News) The cyclone lashed Sardinia’s coast for many hours, as Alan Johnston reports

At least 17 people have been killed in flooding prompted by a cyclone and heavy rain that lashed the Italian island of Sardinia.

A number of people are reported missing after rivers burst their banks, sweeping cars away and causing bridges to collapse.

The worst-hit area appears to be in and around the north-eastern city of Olbia.

Prime Minister Enrico Letta has declared a state of emergency, speaking of a “national tragedy”.

BBC map showing Olbia, Calgiari and Arzachena in Sardinia

Mr Letta announced that 20 million euros (£16.8m, $27m) would be allocated immediately to emergency relief efforts, with soldiers deployed in the region.

“We are focusing on essential operations: saving human lives, assisting displaced people and clearing road access,” he said after an emergency cabinet meeting on Tuesday.

Victims

A Brazilian family of four drowned when their basement flat in the town of Arzachena, in the northern part of the island, filled with water. Two children were among the dead.

Three people died when a road bridge collapsed on to their car near Olbia, according to local media.

In a separate incident, a mother and her daughter were found dead in their car after it was swept away by floods.

Among the victims was a police officer who died after a bridge collapsed as he tried to escort an ambulance.

Hundreds of people across the Mediterranean island have been moved from their homes because of the flash flooding caused by Cyclone Cleopatra.

“We’re at maximum alert,” Giorgio Cicalo, an official from Sardinia’s civil protection authority, told Italy’s Rai TV.

“We haven’t seen a situation as extreme as this, perhaps for decades – especially because it’s been across the whole island.”

‘Apocalyptic’

Reports say flood waters in some areas were up to 3m (10ft) high.

Sardinian Governor Ugo Cappellacci told Italian TV that the situation on the island was “dramatic”.

Meanwhile Olbia Mayor Gianni Giovanelli was quoted by Sky TG24 as saying that the city had been hit by an “apocalyptic”‘ storm.

Further bad weather is expected in the coming days

Some city residents used social media to offer shelter to those forced out of their homes.

The BBC Weather Centre says the flooding was caused by a deep area of low pressure that has been sitting over the Mediterranean, bringing sustained heavy rain.

The unstable conditions are expected move across Italy and further east, bringing further downpours and the threat of flooding, particularly in Venice.

The storm caused extensive damage to farms in Sardinia and disrupted a number of flights to and from mainland Italy.

Italian President Giorgio Napolitano has expressed “solidarity with the communities involved” and “heartfelt sympathy to the families of the many victims”.

Rescuers work on a flooded street in the town of Uras, Sardinia. Photo: 18 November 2013 Hundreds of people have been evacuated from their homes
Tankers are battered by gale winds and big waves off Cagliari. Photo: 18 November 2013 Ships were battered by gale winds and big waves off Cagliari
Flood water gushes down a street in Sardinia following a huge rainstorm Flood water gushed down roads and into homes
A rescue worker standing on wall overlooking flooded street with submerged cars after a cyclone brought severe flooding to Sardinia Rescue workers are looking for a number of people still reported missing

Cyclones

  • A cyclone is an area of low pressure
  • Hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones are region-specific names for different sorts of cyclones
  • The term “cyclone” refers to the storm’s rotating winds
  • The only tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe was Hurricane Vince in 2005
  • Cyclone winds spin anti-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere

Related Stories

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Italy declares state of emergency in Sardinia after deadly floods 19th November 2013


(Video credit: NowWorldNews)

Published on Nov 19, 2013

Italian authorities have declared a state of emergency in Sardinia after a cyclone struck the Mediterranean island.

At least 16 people are known to have died and hundreds have been moved from their homes after winds of up to 125 kilometres an hour and sheets of rain brought devastation.
Several people are reported missing.

In the northeastern town of Olbia, the mayor said sudden flooding had burst “like a bomb”. The skies dumped as much rain in an hour as falls on Milan in six months, Gianni Giovanelli added.

The mayor said houses across the area had been left half submerged by the floods and rescuers were still searching for possible victims.

“We’ve just found a dead child we had been searching all night for,” he told Italian television.

A Brazilian family of four were reported drowned after their basement flat filled with water.

Elsewhere cars were swept away, homes were flooded and bridges collapsed as rivers burst their banks.

Italy’s prime minister Enrico Letta called it a “national tragedy”, saying the state of emergency meant extra resources would be made immediately available to reach affected areas.

Flights to and from mainland Italy were disrupted.The storm has been described as the worst for “decades”, with no part of Sardinia being spared.

(HD) Sardinia hit by deadly cyclone and flooding

(Video credit: derya4)

Italian (Translated by Google)

Italia : Sardegna colpita dal ciclone mortale Cleopatra 17 morti, stato di emergenza dichiarato – 191113 1350z

Italia – Avvisi di maltempo correnti ( Meteoalarm )

Italia dichiara lo stato di emergenza in Sardegna dopo ciclone mortale

ReutersBy James Mackenzie | Reuters

Auto sommerse sono visti in una strada allagata a San Gavino Monreale su Sardina isola 18 novembre 2013 . REUTERS / Rosaspress
Auto sommerse sono visti in una strada allagata a San Gavino Monreale su Sardina isola 18 novembre 2013 . REUTERS / Rosaspress

Una strada allagata è dipinto in San Gavino Monreale su Sardina isola 18 novembre 2013 . REUTERS / RosaspressView PhotoA strada allagata è dipinto in San Gavino Monreale su Sardina isola il 18 novembre …
I soccorritori tirano una barca lungo , Wade in una strada allagata a San Gavino Monreale in Sardegna, isola 18 Novembre 2013 . REUTERS / RosaspressView lavoratori PhotoRescue tirando una barca lungo , Wade in una strada allagata a San Gavino Monreale …
Un camion tenta di manovra lungo una strada allagata in giro Torpe vicino a Nuoro in Sardegna isola 18 nov 2013 . REUTERS / ANSA / Massimo LocciView PhotoA camion tenta di manovra lungo una strada allagata in giro Torpe vicino a Nuoro in Sardegna …

Di James Mackenzie
” ROMA ( Reuters ) – Almeno 17 persone sono state uccise in allagamenti e centinaia senza casa dopo un ciclone spazzato l’isola mediterranea della Sardegna , le autorità italiane hanno detto il Martedì .

Il governo ha dichiarato lo stato di emergenza dopo che il ciclone Cleopatra cadere 450 millimetri di pioggia in un’ora e mezza durante la notte , provocando fiumi hanno rotto gli argini , spazzando via le auto e le inondazioni case in tutta l’isola .

“Questa è una tragedia nazionale “, ha detto il primo ministro Enrico Letta .

La dichiarazione dello stato di emergenza consentirà di risorse da liberarsi in modo più rapido per raggiungere le zone devastate , con fasce di l’isola sotto le acque di inondazione fango che copriva le auto e le case allagate .

Il governo ha anche istituito da parte 20 milioni di euro ( 27 milioni dollari ) in fondi di emergenza immediate per aiutare il salvataggio e il lavoro di pulizia.

Il sindaco di Olbia , la città nord-orientale della Sardegna tra le aree più colpite , ha detto che l’improvviso allagamento era scoppiata ” come una bomba ” con la stessa quantità di acqua che cade in 90 minuti come cade nella città di Milano in sei mesi .

Il sindaco Gianni Giovannelli ha detto case in tutta l’area erano stati lasciati a metà sommersi dalle inondazioni e soccorritori erano ancora alla ricerca di possibili vittime .

“Abbiamo appena trovato un bambino morto che da tempo cercavamo per tutta la notte per , ” ha detto a SkyTG24 televisione .

Al di là delle vittime immediate , il disastro ha sollevato domande su quanto bene a corto di liquidi governi locali italiani preparati , sotto la crescente pressione finanziaria , dopo più di due anni o di recessione , sono per affrontare le emergenze improvvise .

” Siamo di fronte ad un evento eccezionale qui che ha messo il nostro sistema di pianificazione e gestione del territorio in crisi “, ha detto Antonello Frau , vice capo del servizio geologico dell’isola .

” Dobbiamo davvero a valutare come gestire queste situazioni , che stanno diventando sempre più frequenti . ”

CROCE ROSSA

Inondazioni e smottamenti sono stati comuni in Italia , dominato in molte aree da catene montuose .

Tuttavia Legambiente , principale gruppo ambientalista in Italia , ha detto che il disastro ha mostrato che vi era una necessità urgente di rafforzare le misure per gestire le inondazioni e altri disastri , una chiamata sostenuta dal Consiglio geologico nazionale .

Si dice di più di 6 milioni di italiani di fronte un potenziale rischio di inondazioni , ma ha detto che il rischio era stata aggravata da costruzione sconsiderata , soprattutto nelle zone costiere .

” Questo non è solo colpa del cambiamento climatico”, presidente dell’associazione , Gian Vito Graziano , ha detto in una dichiarazione.

La Croce Rossa ha detto che centinaia di persone erano stati costretti ad abbandonare le loro case e in rifugi temporanei creati in palestre e altri centri . Diversi ponti sono stati spazzati via in Olbia e nella regione vicino alla città centrale di Nuoro .

“La situazione è tragica , ” regionale governatore Ugo Cappellacci ha detto SkyTG24 televisione . ” Gli hotel di Olbia sono pieni di persone che hanno avuto a fuggire , ma ci sono migliaia di persone che hanno danni alle loro case . ”

($ 1 = 0,7394 )

( Segnalazione supplementare da Naomi O’Leary e Roberto Landucci ; Montaggio di Angus MacSwan ) ”
altre relazioni
Sardegna colpita dal ciclone mortale e allagamenti

BBC 19 Novembre 2013 Ultimo aggiornamento alle 11:50 Z ( GMT / UTC )

( Credito del video: News) Il ciclone sferzato coste della Sardegna per molte ore , come riporta Alan Johnston
Almeno 17 persone sono state uccise in inondazioni spinto da un ciclone e la pioggia che sferzava l’isola italiana di Sardegna.

Un certo numero di persone sono dato per disperso dopo fiumi hanno rotto gli argini , spazzando via le auto e causando il crollo di ponti .

La zona più colpita sembra essere in giro per la città a nord -est di Olbia .

Il primo ministro Enrico Letta ha dichiarato lo stato di emergenza , che parla di una ” tragedia nazionale ” .
BBC mappa che mostra Olbia , Calgiari e Arzachena in Sardegna

Sig. Letta ha annunciato che 20 milioni di euro ( £16.8m , $ 27m ) sarebbero assegnati immediatamente ad interventi d’emergenza , con i soldati dispiegati nella regione.

” Ci stiamo concentrando sulle operazioni essenziali : salvare vite umane , assistere le persone sfollate e di compensazione accesso stradale “, ha detto dopo una riunione di gabinetto d’emergenza il Martedì .

vittime

Una famiglia brasiliana di quattro annegati quando il loro piano seminterrato nel comune di Arzachena , nella parte settentrionale dell’isola , piena d’acqua. Due bambini sono stati tra i morti .

Tre persone sono morte quando un ponte stradale crollato per la propria auto nei pressi di Olbia , secondo i media locali .

In un altro incidente , una madre e sua figlia sono stati trovati morti nella loro auto dopo che è stato spazzato via dalle inondazioni .

Tra le vittime è stato un agente di polizia che è morto dopo un ponte crollato , mentre cercava di scortare un’ambulanza .

Centinaia di persone in tutta l’ isola mediterranea sono stati spostati dalle loro case a causa delle inondazioni lampo causato dal ciclone Cleopatra .

“Siamo in massima allerta , ” Giorgio Cicalo , un funzionario della Protezione Civile della Sardegna , ha detto a Rai TV in Italia .

” Non abbiamo visto una situazione estrema come questa , forse per decenni – soprattutto perch è passato attraverso tutta l’isola . ”

‘ Apocalittico ‘

I rapporti dicono le acque delle inondazioni in alcune aree sono stati fino a 3 m (10 piedi ) di altezza .

Sardo governatore Ugo Cappellacci ha detto TV italiana che la situazione sull’isola è stato ” drammatico ” .

Nel frattempo il sindaco di Olbia Gianni Giovanelli è stato citato da Sky TG24 come dire che la città era stata colpita da un ” apocalittico ” ‘ tempesta.

Ulteriore maltempo è atteso nei prossimi giorni

Alcuni residenti della città usato i social media per offrire rifugio a coloro costretti ad abbandonare le loro case.

Il Meteo Centro BBC dice che l’allagamento è stato causato da una profonda area di bassa pressione che è stato seduto sul Mediterraneo , portando sostenuta pioggia .

Le condizioni instabili dovrebbero muoversi in tutta Italia e più a est , portando ulteriori acquazzoni e la minaccia di inondazioni , soprattutto a Venezia.

La tempesta ha causato ingenti danni alle aziende agricole in Sardegna e ha interrotto una serie di voli da e per l’Italia continentale .

Presidente della Repubblica Italiana Giorgio Napolitano ha espresso ” solidarietà con le comunità coinvolte ” e ” sentito cordoglio alle famiglie delle numerose vittime ” .
I soccorritori lavorano su una strada allagata nel comune di Uras , Sardegna. Foto: 18 Nov 2013 Centinaia di persone sono state evacuate dalle loro case
Tankers sono battuto da venti di burrasca e grandi onde al largo di Cagliari . Foto: 18 nov 2013 navi sono state maltrattate da venti di burrasca e grandi onde al largo di Cagliari
Flood acqua sgorga in una strada in Sardegna a seguito di un enorme acqua Flood temporale sgorgava giù le strade e nelle case
Un soccorritore in piedi sul muro che si affaccia strada allagata con le automobili sommerse , dopo un ciclone ha portato gravi inondazioni di Sardegna I soccorritori sono alla ricerca di un numero di persone ancora dati per dispersi
Cicloni

Un ciclone è una zona di bassa pressione
Uragani , tifoni e cicloni tropicali sono nomi regionali specifici per i diversi tipi di cicloni
Il termine “ciclone ” si riferisce ai venti rotanti della tempesta
Il ciclone tropicale registrato solo per aver colpito l’Europa era l’uragano Vince nel 2005
Ciclone venti rotazione in senso antiorario nell’emisfero settentrionale e in senso orario nell’emisfero meridionale

ARTICOLI CORRELATI

Inondazioni mortali diffuse in tutta Italia
Profilo: Italia
Guida animata : Hurricanes

video
Italia dichiara lo stato di emergenza in Sardegna dopo le alluvioni del 19 mortale novembre 2013

( Credito del video: NowWorldNews )

Pubblicato il Nov 19, 2013

Le autorità italiane hanno dichiarato lo stato di emergenza in Sardegna dopo un ciclone ha colpito l’isola del Mediterraneo .

Almeno 16 persone sono noti per essere morto e centinaia sono stati spostati dalle loro case , dopo venti fino a 125 chilometri all’ora e fogli di pioggia ha portato devastazione .
Diverse persone sono date per disperse .

Nella città nord-orientale di Olbia , il sindaco ha detto improvviso allagamento era scoppiata ” come una bomba ” . I cieli dumping come molta pioggia in un’ora , come cade il Milan in sei mesi , Gianni Giovanelli aggiunto.

Il sindaco ha detto che le case in tutta l’area erano stati lasciati a metà sommerso dalle inondazioni e soccorritori erano ancora alla ricerca di possibili vittime .

“Abbiamo appena trovato un bambino morto che da tempo cercavamo per tutta la notte per “, ha detto alla televisione italiana .

Una famiglia brasiliana di quattro sono stati segnalati annegato dopo il loro piano seminterrato riempito d’acqua .

Altrove auto sono state spazzate via , le case sono state allagate e ponti crollati come fiumi hanno rotto gli argini .

Italia del primo ministro Enrico Letta ha definito una ” tragedia nazionale ” , dicendo che lo stato di emergenza significava risorse extra sarebbero resi immediatamente disponibili per raggiungere le zone colpite.

Voli da e per l’Italia continentale erano disrupted.The tempesta è stato descritto come il peggiore per ” decenni ” , con nessuna parte della Sardegna di essere risparmiato.
( HD ) La Sardegna colpita dal ciclone mortale e allagamenti

( Credito del video: derya4 )

China: Tropical Cyclone Rumbia/Gorio: No longer valid, outdated (151013) – 020713 1520z

(Image: wunderground.com) West Pacific IR loop (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

PAGASA-DOST

Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

For more information and queries, please call at telephone
numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to
www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.

(Scroll down for translation to Filipino and Chinese

Mag-scroll pababa para sa pagsasalin sa Filipino at Chinese

向下滾動到菲律賓和中國的翻譯)
Hong Kong Observatory
ZCZC 238
WTPQ20 BABJ 021200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD RUMBIA 1306 (1306) INITIAL TIME 021200 UTC
00HR 24.1N 108.4E 998HPA 16M/S
P12HR NW 25KM/H=
NNNN

Japan Meteorological agency RSMC Tokyo Tropical Cyclone Advisory

(Image: JMA) 5 day track/intensity forecast

TD
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 2 July 2013

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N2400′(24.0)
E10800′(108.0)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC)
TC Warning Graphic
(Click image for source)

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 017 (FINAL)
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020000Z — NEAR 21.4N 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 110.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 24.0N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 25.8N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 109.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
EASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAKENING TREND IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM HAIKOU, CHINA, SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING HAS BECOME
LESS DEFINED AND CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (25-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
LAND AND FURTHER INCREASING VWS ERODE THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN
Westernpacificweather

Rumbia weakens, Strong Storm floods NE China, next Korea and Japan

“Tropical Storm Rumbia made landfall during the early morning hours on Tuesday bringing gale force winds and heavy rainfall the southernmost portions of China.

The storm is expected to rapidly weaken through Wednesday as it looses its moisture source and friction over southern china tears the base of the storm apart. Still up to 200mm can be expected in some isolated areas in Yunnan province and parts of Northern Vietnam as the storm drops all the rainfall it carried ashore.

Rumbia has been blamed for seven deaths in the Philippines. Six of them children under the age of 10 and all the deaths only coming from two families aboard an overturned boat.  This is why we stress to always make safe decisions and if your not sure if something is safe or not. There is a good chance it is not. It would always be best just to wait for the weather to pass.

Today we are now turning our attention north at a large low pressure system in North East china which is riding atop of the rainy season boundary which has been impacting the weekend the past several weeks. The Yangzi river basin was sharing in on this sour weather but now the boundary is shifting farther north and creating yet more flooding conditions along the way. In Hebei province 213mm of rainfall was reported in the past 24hrs. Now the storm will still likely bring flash flooding to the region, but it is also working its way east. So through Tuesday night in to Wednesday parts of far east Russia, and the Korean Peninsula will receive some of the

Korea Radar

heaviest rainfall along with thunderstorms. The wet and unstable weather will increase from this storm system in Japan producing widespread showers across most of the country on Wednesday.  Heaviest stuff in the Sea of Japan coast and through much of Western Japan. Tokyo could still see a thunder shower or two flare up in the afternoon hours as temperatures climb in to the high 20s.

Okinawa on the other hand will remain relatively dry with only tropical showers possible near the southern Japanese islands. The rainy season officially ended in the Amami region on Monday and now it is still shifting farther north bringing with it the persistent and sour weather showers that were hitting the area in June.

On the tail end of the rainy season front wide spread showers will still be expected through Central China and North of the Yangzi river basin.  Wide spread accumulations up to 50-100mm can be expected here with isolated amounts exceeding 200mm.  In Sichuan province severe floods were seen this past weekend due to this frontal area creating havoc in many towns in villages across central portions of the country. 11 deaths have been reported due to the heavy rains.

A weak tropical wave is also impacting the Philippines with heavy rain showers and scattered thunderstorms today. Already a few locations have lost power due to isolated stronger cells. –westernpacificweather.com

 

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Jul, 2013 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

 

Tropical Storm RUMBIA (06W) currently located near 21.4 N 110.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 75% currently
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 75% currently
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1306 RUMBIA (1306) 996 HPA
AT 23.1N 109.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 25.1N 107.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 27.6N 105.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Filipino (Google translation)

PAGASA-DOST
Tropical bagyo Update
Sa ngayon, walang mga tropikal na bagyo umiiral sa loob ng Philippine Area ng responsibilidad (par).

Chinese (Google translation):

(圖片提供:wunderground.com)西太平洋IR迴路(點擊圖片源)

(圖片:wunderground.com)
風暴中心的衛星圖像
(點擊圖片源)

(圖片:wunderground.com)五天預報圖(點擊圖片源)

PAGASA外輪理貨
PAGASA外輪理貨
熱帶氣旋更新
截至今天為止,有沒有熱帶氣旋在菲律賓責任區(PAR)存在。

欲了解更多信息和查詢,請撥打電話
927-1335和927-2877或登錄
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph&#12290;

(向下滾動到菲律賓和中國的翻譯

磁渦旋pababa第一個pagsasalin一個菲律賓人在中國
向下滾動到菲律賓和中國的翻譯)

日本氣象廳東京RSMC熱帶氣旋諮詢

(圖片提供:JMA)5天軌道/強度預測

TD
2013年7月,在12:45 UTC發行
在2月12日UTC> <Analyses
秤 –
強度 –
TD
中心位置N2400’(24.0)
E10800’(108.0)
方向和速度機芯淨重30公里每小時(15克拉)
中央壓力1000hPa

聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)

(圖片提供:聯合颱風警報中心)
TC警告圖形
(點擊圖片源)

谷歌地球圖形疊加

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
,MSGID / GENADMIN的的/合營號颱風WRNCEN珍珠港HI / /
的SUBJ /熱帶氣旋警告/ /
RMKS /
1。熱帶風暴06W(溫比亞)警告NR 017(決賽)
01活躍的熱帶氣旋在NORTHWESTPAC
基於一分鐘平均最大持續風速
風半徑僅在開放的水有效

警告位置:
020000Z —近21.4N 110.0E
運動過去六小時 – 325度11 KTS
位置精確到060海裡內
基於位置的組合中心
衛星和雷達
目前風分佈:
最大持續風速 – 050 KT,陣風065 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消散
重複POSIT:21.4N 110.0E

預測:
12小時,有效的:
021200Z — 24.0N 108.5E
最大持續風速 – 035 KT,陣風045 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消散
矢量24 HR POSIT:330度/ 10節

24小時,有效的:
030000Z — 25.8N 107.4E
最大持續風速 – 020 KT,陣風030 KT
風半徑僅在開放的水有效
作為一個重要的熱帶氣旋在土地消耗

備註:
22.1N 109.6E 020300Z位置附近。
熱帶風暴(TS)06W(溫比亞),位於約231 nm
向東,越南河內西北以11節的速度跟踪
在過去的六個小時。動畫多光譜衛星圖像
繼續描繪出疲軟態勢的整體結構
深對流系統持續減少。雷達
從海口,中國,圖像顯示緊密彎已成為BANDING
定義和對流變淺。上級分析
揭示了一個惡劣的環境強(25-35節)垂直風
剪切(VWS)已成為主要特徵。 TS 06W有望
繼續跟踪北西北沿西北
西南邊緣通過STR預測期內
在未來24小時內就會消失的摩擦效應
侵蝕土地,並進一步增加VWS系統。這是最後的
此系統的珍珠港HI聯合颱風WRNCEN的警告。
該系統將密切監察再生的跡象。/ /

Westernpacificweather
溫比亞減弱,強暴雨洪水中國東北,明年韓國和日本
2013年7月2由robspeta未發布

熱帶風暴溫比亞在上週二清晨登陸,帶來強風和暴雨中國最南端的部分。

風暴預計將迅速減弱至週三,因為它失去其水分來源和摩擦在中國南部的眼淚風暴除了基地。仍可達200mm,可以預計,在一些偏遠地區的雲南省和越南北部的部分地區風暴下降的降雨進行上岸。

溫比亞已被指責為七人死亡,菲律賓。其中六人未滿10歲的兒童和所有死亡掀翻船一艘來自兩個家庭。答:這是為什麼我們總是強調安全的決定,如果你不知道,如果事情是安全與否。這是一個很好的機會,它不是。這將永遠是最好的,只是等待天氣通過。

今天,現在我們把我們的注意力在一個大型低壓系統已影響到週末在過去幾個星期的雨季邊界之上這是騎在中國東北部北部。長江流域分享這種酸酸的天氣,但現在的邊界轉向更遠的北方,一路上和創造更多的洪水條件。河北省降雨213毫米是在過去24小時。現在風暴仍可能會帶來山洪的地區,但它也正在一路向東。因此,通過週二晚上(星期三)俄羅斯遠東地區,朝鮮半島會收到一些

韓國雷達

最重的降雨以及雷暴。潮濕和不穩定的天氣將增加從這場風暴系統在日本廣泛陣雨在大多數國家Wednesday.最重的東西在日本海沿岸,並通過了西日本。東京仍然可以看到一個雷陣雨或兩個火炬在下午隨著氣溫攀升到20。

唯一的熱帶陣雨可能在日本南部島嶼附近沖繩另一方面將保持相對乾燥。雨季正式在奄美地區在週一結束,現在它仍然是轉向更遠的北方帶來了它的持久性和的酸味天氣陣雨擊中該地區在6月。

在雨季前廣為流傳淋浴的尾部仍然可以通過揚子江basin.廣泛傳播藏中國中部和北部50-100mm的預期,在這裡可以預期與隔離金額超過200mm.四川省嚴重的洪澇災害,看到過去的這個週末,由於這個額葉區域,跨國家的中央部分村莊造成嚴重破壞,在許多城鎮。已報告11人死亡,由於大雨。

一個弱的熱帶波也影響菲律賓今天有大雨陣雨和分散的雷暴。少數地方已經失去動力由於孤立更強的細胞。westernpacificweather.com

TSR logoNW太平洋發出暴風警報在7月2,2013 0:00 GMT(最後警告)

熱帶風暴溫比亞(06W)目前位於近21.4東經110.0 E的預測,取得土地的可能性(次)在給定的領先時間(s):

黃色警示國家(S)或省(S)
中國
目前CAT 1或以上的概率為25%
變性人的概率是95%,目前
黃色警報城(s)和鎮(S)
湛江(21.2 N,110.3)
目前CAT 1或以上的概率為10%
變性人的概率是95%,目前
茂名(21.9東經110.9)
變性人的概率是75%,目前
北海(21.6 N,109.2)
變性人的概率是75%,目前
南寧(22.8 N,108.3)
變性人的概率是65%,在12小時內

需要注意的是
黃色警戒(升高)是CAT 1或以上的介於10%和30%的概率,或者在50%以上的概率。
CAT 1意味著颱風強度至少74英里的風,119公里/小時或每小時64海裡,持續1分鐘。
TS意味著至少39英里的熱帶風暴強度的風,63公里每小時34節1分鐘持續。

對於圖形的預測信息和進一步詳情,請訪問http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
海事

航運熱帶氣旋警告
METAREA11 / / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN的0600

WTJP21 RJTD 020600
警告020600。
警告有效030600。
警告6小時更新一次。
烈風警告。
1306熱帶風暴溫比亞(1306)996 HPA
AT 23.1N 109.0E華南西北移動10海裡。
POSITION不錯。
中心附近最大風35海裡。
超過30節的風速120公里東半圓和90英里半徑
在別處。
預測位置在50英里半徑25.1N 107.1E 021800UTC
70%的概率圓。
1000百帕。
熱帶低氣壓BECOMING。
預測位置在75英里半徑27.6N 105.5E 030600UTC
70%的概率圓。
1002百帕。
熱帶低氣壓BECOMING。

日本氣象廳。

India to Myanmar Possible Targets for Developing Tropical Cyclone

Early warning saves lives!
Related
Tropical Cyclone 24S 091200Z nr 7.6S 86.0E, moving SE at 07 knots (RSMC LaReunion) – 090513 1550z:
http://wp.me/p2k2mU-1Ps

TheSurvivalPlaceBlog

By Eric Leister

A large zone of unsettled weather near and south of India has resulted in the formation of one tropical cyclone, and another may form soon.

The first area, just east of Sri Lanka, will pose the greatest threat to land, as the potential tropical cyclone could bring impacts to areas from India to Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Farther south, Tropical Cyclone 24S formed on Wednesday from this broad area of unsettled weather.

The above satellite image from Thursday shows clouds associated with Tropical Cyclone 24S well south of India. Also seen is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms just southeast of Sri Lanka that could develop into another tropical cyclone.

Close monitoring of the area near Sri Lanka will be needed into the upcoming weekend for possible development.

If tropical development does occur to the east of Sri Lanka, the expected track of this tropical cyclone…

View original post 106 more words

US: Florida may have a tropical cyclone over the weekend – NASA Updated 24 May 2012 0103GMT/UTC

Possible Tropical Cyclone Development

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Miami, Florida predicts that a low pressure center affecting southern Florida may develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend. The TRMM satellite traveled above this area of disturbed weather early this morning at 0429 UTC ( 00:29 AM EDT ) collecting data used in the rainfall analysis shown.

Source: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/

(Image: NASA)

 

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA…HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE…MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT…LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL…FLOODING…AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS…AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM…PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. &&

4. HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
NNNN

2 children & woman killed, 3,000 displaced in Cyclone in Tinsukia, Assam, India

Three killed after cyclone and heavy hailstorms hit Tinsukia district of Assam.

A nine years old child killed in Majbari village of Kakopathar after a big tree fall over her. Another 55 years old woman died in Sonari Gaon, Dhola in similar incident.
A Third incident happened in Tinsukia districts where thunderstorm killed a small girl.
About 3,000 people are displaced. Homeless people are taking shelter in neighbours houses, nearby schools and churches.

Several other villages like Talap, Dangri, Tezipathar, Katorbasti, Borali, Maithong, Laina, Khobang, Dhola, Haikhati, Ghutung Gaon, Kherbari, Samguri, Kakopathar, Dirak in Tinsukia district are also reported to be affected.

Several residential houses, schools, buildings reported to be damaged by the cyclone.

Source: Assam Tribune

Red Alert for Vietnam Typhoon (from 29/03/2012 12:00 UTC to 30/03/2012 00:00)

1 June 2012 THIS INFORMATION IS NOW WELL OUT OF DATE!!

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Red Tropical Cyclone alert in Vietnam for PAKHAR-12 from 29/03/2012 12:00 UTC to 30/03/2012 00:00 UTC
Automatic impact report for tropical cyclone PAKHAR-12
alertimage

Red alert for wind impact in Vietnam

This tropical cyclone is expected to have a high humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.

Current storm status

This report is for advisory number 5 of tropical cyclone PAKHAR-12 issued at 3/30/2012 12:00:00 AM (GDACS Event ID 29158, Latest episode ID: 5).

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.7million
  • Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 148 km/h)
  • Vulnerability of affected countries: High
  • The tropical cyclone did not reach sufficient strength to cause significant storm surge. No calculations were performed.

Impact of Extreme Wind

Cloud map
Cloud map. The map shows the areas affected by tropical storm strength winds (green), 58mph winds (orange) and cyclone wind strengths (red). (Source: JRC)

Affected population

Up to 710000 people people can be affected by wind speeds of cyclone strength or above. In addition, 80000 people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

Affected countries

alert
Country Region/Province Population
Vietnam Lam Dong 750000 people
Vietnam Binh Thuan 860000 people

Affected cities

City
Name Region/Province Country City class Population
Hòa Da Binh Thuan Vietnam City no people
Phan Thiet Binh Thuan Vietnam City 150000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Nearby and affected airports
Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Song Mao 26
Phan Thiet PHH 61

Event time line

The storm evolution is shown in the table below. Alert levels and population estimates are related to the area from a point to the next.

Advisory Alert color Date (UTC) Category Wind speed Wind gusts Population affected
by cyclone winds (>120km/h)
Location (lon, lat)
1
green
3/29/2012 Tropical depression 56 km/h (35 mph) 74 km/h (46 mph) no people 112.3, 9.7
2
green
3/29/2012 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 64 km/h (40 mph) 84 km/h (52 mph) no people 112, 9.8
3
green
3/29/2012 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 84 km/h (52 mph) 101 km/h (63 mph) no people 111.7, 9.9
4
green
3/29/2012 6:00:00 PM Tropical storm 101 km/h (63 mph) 130 km/h (81 mph) no people 111.7, 9.8
5
green
3/30/2012 Category 1 121 km/h (75 mph) 148 km/h (92 mph) no people 111.3, 9.7
5
green
3/30/2012 12:00:00 PM Category 1 138 km/h (86 mph) 167 km/h (104 mph) no people 110.7, 9.9
5
green
3/31/2012 Category 1 148 km/h (92 mph) 185 km/h (115 mph) no people 110, 10.2
5
orange
3/31/2012 12:00:00 PM Category 1 148 km/h (92 mph) 185 km/h (115 mph) 760000 people 109.2, 10.6
5
red
4/1/2012 Category 1 121 km/h (75 mph) 148 km/h (92 mph) 1.5 million people 108.2, 11.1
5
orange
4/2/2012 Tropical storm 64 km/h (40 mph) 84 km/h (52 mph) 710000 people 107.2, 11.7
5
green
4/3/2012 Tropical depression 37 km/h (23 mph) 56 km/h (35 mph) no people 106.5, 12.2

Previous advisories

For accessing reports of previous advisories, please click on the advisory number in the table below.

Advisory Alert color Date Category Maximum sustained
wind speed (km/h)
Population affected
by cyclone winds (>120km/h)
Affected countries Date added
1 3/29/2012 12:00:00 AM Tropical storm 101 No people affected Vietnam 29/03/2012 05:18
2 3/29/2012 6:00:00 AM Tropical storm 101 No people affected Vietnam 29/03/2012 13:22
3 3/29/2012 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 111 No people affected Vietnam 29/03/2012 16:26
4 3/29/2012 6:00:00 PM Category 1 130 430 thousand Vietnam 29/03/2012 23:50
5 3/30/2012 12:00:00 AM Category 1 148 710 thousand Vietnam 30/03/2012 04:50

More information

Data resources

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.

About the data

The information on storm characteristics is taken from a web service provided by the Pacific Disaster Center, which processes the official advisory bulletins.

JRC calculates areas affected by high winds (wind buffers at 39, 58 and 74mph). This is done using the maximum reported wind radius (maximum of 4 quadrants) or, in case no wind radii are provided, through a regression analysis based on historical data. JRC also calculates the area affected by storm surge using HyFlux2 (hydrodynamic software).

Sources for data on critical infrastructure are: JRC NUMAS database (nuclear plants), ESRI (hydro dams, 1996), Global Discovery (airports, ports and cities).

Population data is from LandScan 2010.

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.