Is La Niña on the way? – Reblogged from UK Met Office (05 Oct 2017)

During 2015 and 2016, the planet experienced one of the largest El Niño events in a century. El Niño (Spanish for the boy) is actually the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and climate scientists are now suggesting that this oscillation in tropical Pacific temperature is likely tipping towards its opposite cool phase, La […]

via Is La Niña on the way? — Official blog of the Met Office news team

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West Pacific: Typhoon Banyan 14W 151500Z position 29.3N 162.6E, moving N 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Aug 2017 1350z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Banyan 14W

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 14W (Banyan) Warning #11
Issued at 13/1500Z

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 28.5N 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 162.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 31.5N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 35.0N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 29 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 39.2N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 44.0N 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 162.6E.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

TY 1712 (Banyan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E162°10′ (162.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°10′ (31.2°)
E162°55′ (162.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°40′ (34.7°)
E166°05′ (166.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 August>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N43°00′ (43.0°)
E177°30′ (177.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

Units:
1 kt (knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1 nm (nautical mile) = 1.852 km

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 151200

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1712 BANYAN (1712) 975 HPA
AT 28.3N 162.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 31.2N 162.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 34.7N 166.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 43.0N 177.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hawaii/ Central Pacific: Tropical Storm Fernanda (06E) 202100Z near 18.2N 140.4W, moving W 11 knots (NHC) – Updated 20 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda (06E)

…FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC….(NHC)

Hawaii be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET (JTWC)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 202035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

…FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.2N 140.4W
ABOUT 965 MI…1555 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 140.4 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general motion
toward the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Fernanda is expected to become a tropical depression
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO
header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 06E (Fernanda) Warning #35
Issued at 20/1600Z

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 035
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 18.1N 138.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 138.7W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 18.6N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 19.0N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 19.5N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 20.1N 145.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 21.5N 149.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.5N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 24.0N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 139.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 936 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: RSMC Miami)


METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2034

WTPZ21 KNHC 202034 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062017
2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 139.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 140.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

 

================================================================================

FZPN02 KWBC 201725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 177W AND 175E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 180W AND 170E WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN
169E AND 178W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 30N168E 999 MB. FROM 30N TO 34N
BETWEEN 164E AND 172E WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 163E AND 172E WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 53.92N 168.03W IS IN A STATE OF UNREST.
MARINERS TRAVELING IN THE VICINITY OF BOGOSLOF VOLCANO ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION. IF MARINERS ENCOUNTER ANY VOLCANIC
ASH…REPORT THE OBSERVATION TO THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER BY
CALLING 301-683-1520.

.FROM 33N TO 38N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 43N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.LOW 55N149W 1002 MB DRIFTING SE. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 57N140W TO
56N146W TO 50N141W TO 47N140W TO 44N142W. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300
NM N QUADRANT…ALSO WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E OF FRONT…AND FROM
43N TO 48N BETWEEN 155W AND 165W…ALSO FROM 53N TO 58N BETWEEN
161W AND 166W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW FORMED NEAR
51N144W 1001 MB. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 53N157W TO 56N150W TO
56N144W TO 53N140W TO 50N133W TO 47NB131W. WITHIN 180 NM NW…N
AND NE OF FRONT…ALSO FROM 41N TO 50N BETWEEN 136W AND 147W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N141W 1002 MB. FROM 49N TO 54N BETWEEN
133W AND 146W…AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM 55N147W TO
55N134W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.S OF 33N W OF 165E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED W OF AREA.

.FROM 45N TO 50N BETWEEN 175W AND 175E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 47N164W 1012 MB. FROM 42N TO 45N
BETWEEN 160W AND 173W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N155W 1011 MB. FORECAST CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 48N
BETWEEN 142W AND 164W AND W OF A LINE FROM 61N170W TO 50N179W TO
46N170W TO 44N170W TO 40N176W TO 37N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 155W AND
164W…ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 153W AND 158W…AND W OF A
LINE FROM 60N175W TO 40N174E TO 38N160E…ALSO FROM 40N TO 43N
BETWEEN 175W AND 174E…ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 153W AND
158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 45N BETWEEN 142W AND
156W…ALSO FROM 50N TO 53N BETWEEN 152W AND 159E…AND W OF A
LINE FROM 58N180W TO 46N176E TO 41N163E.

.HIGH 41N180W 1033 MB MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N173E 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N169E 1027 MB.

.HIGH 58N179W 1018 MB MOVING SW 10 KT…THEN TURNING E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 56N178E 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 53N176W 1023 MB.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N136W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N137W 1025 MB.

.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUL 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.1N 115.4W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL
20 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.7N 118.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120NM NW AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 15.4N 122.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE…60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW AND
120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 16.0N 127.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 16.3N 131.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 17.0N 135.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 18.2N 139.2W 995 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUL 20 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE
QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT…50 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE…120
NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF LINE
FROM 26N134W TO 19N134W TO 13N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA W OF AREA NEAR 19.0N
142.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE…50 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 139W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF LINE FROM 25N137W TO
16N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA W OF AREA
NEAR 20.1N 145.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 21.5N
149.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 22.5N
154.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 24.0N
160.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 13.4N 123.1W 1009 MB AT 1500
UTC JUL 20 MOVING WSW OR 245 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 180NM SE AND 60 NM NW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 12.1N 124.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EIGHT-E NEAR 11.6N
125.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 150 NM
SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N104W 1010 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 450 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
13N109W 1009 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N112W 1008 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF
LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO
15N95.5W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 86.5W AND 89W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN E AND SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 89W AND
92W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 FT IN E AND SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 88.5W…INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC THU JUL 20…

.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NE
QUADRANT WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM GREG…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER…EXCEPT NW QUADRANT.

.TROPICAL WAVE 06N TO 19N ALONG 104W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1010
MB NEAR 12N104W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO
12N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB
NEAR 07N86W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 11N104W. SCATTERED TO
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W
AND 94W.

.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20 2017.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 21 2017.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22 2017.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA JUST E OF AREA 18.2N 139.2W AT 20/1500Z
MOVING W 08 KT. MAX WINDS 55 KT G 65 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER
WITHIN 70 NM NW QUADRANT…50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT…90 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT ELSEWHERE E OF LINE 25N145W 22N150W 16N147W 13N142W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA 19.0N 142.4W. MAX
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER WITHIN 50 NM NE
QUADRANT…40 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…150 NM SW QUADRANT…210 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY 26N140W 14N140W 12N145W
21N153W 24N152W 26N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 20.1N 145.8W.
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT…90 NM
S SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY
25N145W 23N140W 18N145W 16N155W 22N153W 25N145W.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 21.5N 149.5W.
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR OUTLOOK POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 22.5 154.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.
.120 HOUR OUTLOOK POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 24.0N 160.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 24N178E 1008 MB MOVING NNW 15 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
20N175E 19S171E. WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER N
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 720 NM OF CENTER N
SEMICIRCLE…120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT WITHIN 360 N
OF CENTER N AND NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE BOUNDED
BY 30N160E 30N173W 24N176W 21N172E 28N160E 30N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 30N TO 22N BETWEEN 175E AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N174E 1003 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
25N175E. WINDS 30 TO 45 KT WITHIN 60 NM AND 420 NM OF CENTER NE
QUADRANT…AND 60 NM AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS 520 NM NW SEMICIRCLE…240 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM
OF CENTER N SEMICIRCLE…120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE BOUNDED BY 30N160E 30N175W 24N177E 20N170E 24N160E
30N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 30N169E 999 MB. WINDS 30 TO 45 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER S SEMICIRCLE.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE BOUNDED BY 30N165E 30N179W 25N173E
25N165E 30N165E.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROUGH 08N140W 06N145W.

.ITCZ 06N145W 05N160W 08N171W 05N174E 04N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ W OF 171W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ E OF 171W.

.WINDS NE 20 TO 30 KT SE OF LINE 28N140W 20N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS NE TO E 20 TO 30 KT E OF LINE 28N145W TO
20N153W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS NE TO SE 20 TO 30 KT FROM 26N TO 21N E
OF 148W.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 15N TO 05N BETWEEN 160 AND 152W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 02N E OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 04N E OF 160W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSMTS N OF 23N W OF 170E.

$$
.HONOLULU FORECASTER.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W) 04/1000Z nr 34.1N 137.1E, moving E 65 km/h (36 kt) (JMA) – Updated 04 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W)

JAPAN beware!

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

 

STS 1703 (Nanmadol)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 4 July 2017

<Analysis at 10 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°05′ (34.1°)
E137°05′ (137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Estimate for 11 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°10′ (34.2°)
E137°50′ (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°40′ (35.7°)
E144°00′ (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°20′ (37.3°)
E151°35′ (151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°30′ (44.5°)
E171°10′ (171.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 85 km/h (45 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

===============================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 05W (Nanmadol) Warning #10
Issued at 04/0900Z

 

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 04/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z — NEAR 33.6N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 075 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 134.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 35.3N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 33 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 36.9N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 136.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 34
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NANMADOL is currently located near 33.6 N 134.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). NANMADOL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

News Report

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 142E
46N 150E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N 160E 30N 140E 35N
140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 57N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 51N 164E NORTH 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 17N 133E NW 15 KT.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 43N 148E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 122E TO 36N 124E 37N 131E 39N 140E 37N 146E
37N 151E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA AT 33.6N 134.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 040900

WTJP31 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA
AT 34.1N 136.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 36 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 35.7N 144.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 37.3N 151.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

West Pacific/ Guam /Marianas: Tropical Disturbance (#97W): High chance of a significant Tropical #Cyclone within next 24 hrs (JTWC 25/0200Z) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1550z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Disturbance (Invest  97W)

….has a high chance of becoming a significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours (JTWC 25/0200Z)

Guam and Marianas Beware!

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPN21 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 146.2E TO 15.8N 141.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 145.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY
65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. A 242032Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

000
WWMY80 PGUM 251617 CCA
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement…Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1137 PM ChST Sun Jun 25 2017

GUZ001>004-260300-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
1137 PM ChST Sun Jun 25 2017

…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS TONIGHT…

A developing tropical disturbance near Rota remains the subject
of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center. This disturbance will continue to produce scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms, occasional heavy rain and gusty
winds tonight as it continues westward.

If you are planning any outdoor activities through Monday evening,
be aware of current conditions and be prepared to move indoors,
if necessary. Mariners operating small vessels should remain in
port. Beach goers and swimmers need to stay close to shore and
move indoors if lightning is present.

Residents should stay informed on the latest statements and
advisories issued by the National Weather Service and local
emergency management offices. Products issued by the National
Weather Service are posted on the WFO Guam web page at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/.

$$

Kleeschulte

Guam Infrared Color (Himawari 8)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
WHGM70 PGUM 250354
MWWGUM

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
154 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

PMZ152>154-252000-
/O.NEW.PGUM.SI.Y.0004.170625T0354Z-170625T2000Z/
ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
154 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST
MONDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST MONDAY.

EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL
BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS…SHOULD AVOID SAILING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

STANKO

060
FZMY70 PGUM 250715
MWSMY

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
515 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

PMZ151>154-252000-
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
515 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
TO THE MARIANAS WATERS TONIGHT. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS, OR
BELOW DECK FOR MARINERS AWAY FROM LAND. VISIBILITES WILL BE BELOW
1 NAUTICAL MILE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REMAIN ALERT
FOR FURTHER BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN,
GUAM.

$$

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Depression Beatriz 02E 021000Z nr 16.6N 96.2W, moving NNE about 05kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 Jun 2017 1318z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Beatriz (02E)

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS (AND MUDSLIDES) POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS…

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 02E (Beatriz) Warning #08
Issued at 02/1000Z

ep0217 jtwc 02

02E_020600sair 02

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z — NEAR 16.2N 96.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 96.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 17.3N 95.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 96.2W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1497 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z.
//
NNNN

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

084041_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind 02

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 020835
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beatriz Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF
OAXACA DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.5N 96.3W
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM NNE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beatriz
was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 96.3 West. Beatriz
is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast
track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move farther inland over
the state of Oaxaca through the day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Beatriz is expected to dissipate later
today over the mountains of southeastern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Beatriz is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the Mexican state of Oaxaca
with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches possible. This rainfall
is likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Lighter amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range are possible across the
southern portion of the Mexican state of Veracruz.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 2 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BEATRIZ is currently located near 16.5 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). BEATRIZ is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oaxaca (17.1 N, 96.7 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
    Puerto Angel (15.8 N, 96.5 W)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

DBSK8-PVYAAQ_pS

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com at 02/0253 UTC)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 02

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0900 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

WTPZ22 KNHC 020834
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022017
0900 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 96.3W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 96.3W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 95.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

000
FZPN03 KNHC 020926 CCA
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

CORRECTED PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR ITCZ

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI JUN 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUN 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUN 04.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ INLAND NEAR 16.5N 96.3W 1007 MB AT
0900 UTC JUN 02 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BEATRIZ NEAR 17.3N
95.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF LINE FROM 03.4S99W TO 01S106W TO 00N116W TO 02S120W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S107W TO 01S116W TO 01S120W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S102W TO 02S106W TO 00N115W
TO 01S120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC FRI JUN 02…

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ…NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED
STRONG N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W.

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N85W TO 13N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N85W TO
13N89W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N100W TO 08N113W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
08N113W TO 08N127W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
07N TO 11N W OF 132W.

$$
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm ADRIAN (1E) 10/1600Z nr 10.3N 92.7W, moving NW at 06kt (JTWC) -Updated 10 May 2017 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian (1E)

Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday..
(NHC Miami FL 10/1540Z)

Scroll down for Hurricane Advisory

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 01E (Adrian) Warning #04
Issued at 10/1600Z

01E_101200sair adrian 10ep0117 JTWC 10 Adrian

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 10.1N 92.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 92.5W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 10.8N 93.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 11.4N 94.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 11.9N 95.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 12.2N 96.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 12.7N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 92.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1920 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
//
NNNN

National Hurricane Center – Miami FL

143603_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind nhc 10

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 101441 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 4…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017
1000 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Corrected for headline

…ADRIAN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…10.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 435 MI…700 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Adrian is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a slow
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 10 May, 2017 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ADRIAN is currently located near 9.5 N 92.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). ADRIAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

TSR Adrian 10

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 NHC 10

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 101430

WTPZ21 KNHC 101430 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012017
1500 UTC WED MAY 10 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 10.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…40NE 40SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.4N 94.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.9N 95.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.2N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT…30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT…40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1540 UTC Wed May 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 10.4N 92.7W at 10/1500 UTC
or about 380 nm SSE of Salina Cruz Mexico moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 93W and
95W. Scattered moderate is elsewhere from 09N to 15N between 91W
and 97W. Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N89W then from
11N96W to low pres 1008 MB 10N103W to 07N106W to 05N116W. ITCZ
from 05N116W to 06N126W to 04N135W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 06N between 78W and 82W…from 02N to
07N between 87W and 94W…from 03N to 08N between 107W and
126W…and from 03N to 07N between 129W and 139W.

…DISCUSSION…

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian which is forecast to approach the offshore waters
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later in the week.

Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 27N W of
the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across
the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo…except
occasional fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas.
Seas range from 5-7 ft in the offshore waters off Baja
California Norte…and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California…
except 3-4 ft S of 24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted
elsewhere. Little change in marine conditions is expected through
the end of the week…with the exception of Tropical Storm Adrian
moving into the southern-most zone late Thursday into early
Thursday night. Otherwise…by Friday night into Saturday…the
pressure gradient off southern California will increase
supporting strong NW winds which will build NW swell to 8-12 ft
in offshore waters N of 25N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian east of Central America.

Otherwise…mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail
during the daytime hours…with gentle to moderate offshore
winds during the overnight hours through the next several days.
Combined seas of 4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA…
An area of high pressure with ridge axis extending from 29N147W
to 21N118W is expected to continue weakening and dissipate as a
cold front approaches the NW part of the discussion area. The
front will stall and dissipate from 30N132W to 27N140W by
Thursday night. High pressure will build in behind the front…
increasing trades and resultant seas slightly by the end of the
week. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere N of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas of 6-8 ft are
across this same area.

$$
HUFFMAN

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Vanuatu: Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P) 091200Z position near 21.4S 168.4E , moving SE 11 kt (RSMC Nadi) – Updated 09 May 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P)

Currently impacting New Caledonia

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET.(JTWC)

Scroll down for HURRICANE WARNING for shipping

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 57 issued 1319 UTC Tuesday 9 May 2017

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm May 9 3 21.4S 168.4E 165
+6hr 6 pm May 9 3 22.1S 168.7E 195
+12hr 12 am May 10 2 22.9S 169.1E 220
+18hr 6 am May 10 2 23.7S 169.5E 250
+24hr 12 pm May 10 2 24.8S 170.3E 280
+36hr 12 am May 11 2 27.4S 172.2E 340
+48hr 12 pm May 11 2 31.0S 175.1E 400
+60hr 12 am May 12 2 34.6S 178.9E 485
+72hr 12 pm May 12 2 37.5S 177.0W 570

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 091350 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 168.4E AT
091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING,
T4.5/4.5/W2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 10000 UTC 22.9S 169.1E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 24.8S 170.3E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 27.4S 172.2E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 31.0S 175.1E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DONNA is currently located near 20.1 S 167.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DONNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DONNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Noum’ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) Warning #23
Issued at 09/0900z

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 20.1S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 167.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 21.6S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.2S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 25.4S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 28.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 090432Z 91 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS INTRODUCING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THUS IMPEDING THE
POLEWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC DONNA IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO
COOLER WATERS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
REGION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC DONNA WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane wind damage

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/animations/images/hurricane_winddamage.swf

Map of Vanuatu with its capital Port Vila, located on its third largest island. (From Wikipedia)

FBC logo

Cyclone Donna intensifies to Category 4

18:41 6 May 2017 (Local Time)

Taken from/By: FBC News
Report by: Akosita Talei

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna has now intensified to a category four system with central pressure of 965 heta pascal destructive hurricane force winds estimated at about 90 knots close to the centre.

TC Donna was located 700km northwest of Port Vila or 1560km west-northwest of Nadi at mid-day today.

Fiji Meteorology Director Ravindra Kumar says it’s moving west-southwest at about 13km/hr and gradually turning southwards and expected to track towards New Caledonia and Southern Vanuatu.

He adds that although TC Donna still lies in favourable environment for further intensification, it’s expected to encounter unfavourable environmental conditions as it turns and tracks in a southerly direction.

He says Fiji is not directly threatened by TC Donna, however associated strong winds will affect Fiji waters and a strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters.

Expect rough seas with east to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, gusting to 30 knots.

Strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters and Occasional showers expected. Isolated heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 091308 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4 SOUTH
168.4 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 168.4E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.9S 169.1E AT 10000 UTC
AND NEAR 24.8S 168.5E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 053.

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Norfolk Island/ NZ /New Caledonia: Tropical Cyclone COOK 16P 111500Z position nr 27.0S 168.8E, moving SE 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 11 Apr 2017 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone COOK (16P)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: Apr 11, 2017, 12:00:00 AM GMT @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 11/1500Z

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 26.6S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 168.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 28.3S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 168.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 111141Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING AN
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC REGION, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

===========================================================================

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 110152 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6S 166.0E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SECTOR FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST.
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO DECREASED. CYCLONE LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 26-27 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 1/3
DEGRESS INTO STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDS, DT=3.5 MET 3.5 AND
PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS. CI HELD
HIGH DUE TO CI RULES FOR WEAKENING.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 26.1S 167.9E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.4S 170.1E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 28.9S 172.5E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON COOK.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0346 UTC 11-Apr-2017

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E at 11/0000UTC today or about 140nm south of Noumea, New
Caledonia, moving south at 10 knots. Maximum winds near the centre
were estimated to be 55 knots with gales extending up to 120nm from
the centre.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 12-Apr-2017

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E, or about bout 140nm south of Noumea, New Caledonia, at
11/0000UTC today and is currently moving south out of the Tropics.

Tropical depression, TD19F, (994hPa) was analysed near 26.0S 169.3W,
or about 430nm southeast of Nukualofa, Tonga at 11/0000UTC today. The
system has low potential to develop into a TC, and is expected to
drift slowly northwards towards Niue over the next 24 hours.

OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 15-Apr-2017

TD19F is expected to track east-southeast from Thursday and lie near
southern Cook Islands, then weaken from Friday onwards.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Wed 12-Apr-2017

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2017

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm COOK is currently located near 26.6 S 168.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). COOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_SOUTH_25S / 1311

WTNZ41 NZKL 111311
GALE WARNING 279
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK 990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6 SOUTH
168.8 EAST AT 111200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.6S 168.8E AT 111200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WITH VERY
ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 268.=

South West Pacific Marine

UPDATED

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 110800 UTC. PART 1 : WARNINGSTORM WARNING 034 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110731 UTC. REFER TO STORM WARNING NUMBER 268 ISSUED BY RSMC WELLINGTON. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 032. ********************************************************************* ************** GALE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110847 UTC. IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 23S 174W 23S 165W 25S 175W 25S 166W,EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 033. ********************************************************************* ************** PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Apr 120600 UTC. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 11S 160E 16S 165E 23S 169E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1. WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 10S 160W 08S 145W 07S 130W 07S 120W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. TROUGH T1 04S 160E 08S 175E 11S 179W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 12S 176W 18S 170W 20S 168W 25S 167W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 09S 169W 13S 163W 16S 160W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. TROUGH T4 17S 152W 21S 145W 25S 138W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T4. TROUGH T5 25S 156W 22S 149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T5. OUTSIDE STORM WARNING NUMBER 034 AND IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 22S AND BETWEEN 165E AND 175E, EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175E AND 135W, EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF EQ AND EAST OF 135W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/Wallis/Samoa: Tropical Cyclone Amos 17F: 201800Z 12.6S 179.9W, moving WNW 06 Kt. Expected to INTENSIFY – Published 20 Apr 2016 2020Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Amos 17F

Tropical Cyclone Amos

5 Day Forecast (Image: @wunderground)

Tropical Cyclone Amos

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 

“Update of Tropical Cyclone “Amos”

During the early hours of this morning, Tropical Depression TD17F has intensified into a Tropical Cyclone and was named Tropical Cyclone “Amos”.

At 3am this morning, it was analysed at 12.8S 179.9W or approximately 230km south-southeast of Niulakita(Tuvalu) or 330km north of Cikobia(Fiji). It is moving westwards at around 14km/hr. As indicated on the attached map, it will turn and move the southeast and is likely to pass in between Wallis and Samoa and this is likely to occur during the weekend

It poses no direct threat to Fiji.

Keep checking this page for further updates.

Stay safe,
Fiji Met”

1823UTC 200416

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 201944 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 179.9W AT
201800UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. AMOS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC FROM NORTH. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS
WARMING FROM THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 400HPA.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC 12.7S 180.0 MOV SW AT 01KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 12.4S 179.4W MOV ENE AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 12.2S 178.4W MOV ENE AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 12.3S 177.3W MOV E AT 06KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TOPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON AMOS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
210200UTC.

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Apr, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AMOS is currently located near 12.6 S 179.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). AMOS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 201913 UTC.

***** CORRECTION TO WARNING NUMBER *****

TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6
SOUTH 179.9 WEST AT 201800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.6S 179.9W AT 201800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE EXPECTING
INTENSIFY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 211200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.7S 180.0 AT 210600 UTC
AND NEAR 12.4S 179.4W AT 211800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

WTPS11 NFFN 201800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
APR 201944 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 179.9W AT
201800UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. AMOS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC FROM NORTH. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS
WARMING FROM THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 400HPA.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC 12.7S 180.0 MOV SW AT 01KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 12.4S 179.4W MOV ENE AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 12.2S 178.4W MOV ENE AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 12.3S 177.3W MOV E AT 06KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TOPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON AMOS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
210200UTC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Victor 07P: 152100Z POSITION nr 14.6S 166.4W, moving W at 02 knots (JTWC) – Published 15 Jan 2016 2145Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Victor 07P

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET

sp201607_5day 15

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast
sp201607_sat_anim 15
Image: @wunderground Satellite

logo
RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 72 issued 1924 UTC Friday 15 January 2016 

65660 15


Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm January 15 2 14.7S 166.3W 110
+6hr 12 am January 16 2 14.8S 166.5W 140
+12hr 6 am January 16 2 15.0S 166.6W 165
+18hr 12 pm January 16 2 15.2S 166.7W 195
+24hr 6 pm January 16 3 15.6S 166.7W 220
+36hr 6 am January 17 3 16.6S 166.8W 280
+48hr 6 pm January 17 3 17.8S 166.6W 345
+60hr 6 am January 18 3 18.9S 166.2W 430
+72hr 6 pm January 18 3 19.9S 165.8W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa


The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 152005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.0S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 166.7W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 166.8W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.8S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Victor) Warning #03
Issued at 15/2100Z

sh0716 15

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151800Z — NEAR 14.6S 166.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 166.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 14.8S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 15.1S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 15.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 16.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 19.4S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 20.6S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 21.2S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATION OF
BANDING, DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING TC 07P THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES WILL REMAIN POSITIVE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH
AND WILL ENHANCEMENT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE LLCC
AND IS CREATING AMPLE OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS DIVERGENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE 96 TO 120 TIMEFRAME. AS SSTS AND OHC DECREASE
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS, BEYOND TAU 96, THE OVERALL INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TC 07P HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, CAUSING A SOUTHWARD TURN WITH MARGINAL
ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 72. A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF
TC VICTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
LEADING TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK HAS
BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 072 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 151938 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7 SOUTH 166.8 WEST AT 151800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 160000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.0S 166.6W AT 160600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.6S 166.7W AT 161800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 070.

METAREA14 / STORM_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 2100

WTPS11 NFFN 152100
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 152005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.0S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 166.7W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 166.8W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.8S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone (CAT3 SS) ULA 06P: 102100Z POSITION nr 22.6S 170, moving SSW 8 knots (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jan 2016 2155z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA (06P)

(= CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET

sp201606_5day 10m

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

 

Image: @wunderground Satellite NOT AVAILABLE

logo

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 48 issued 1931 UTC Sunday 10 January 2016

65660 10

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm January 10 4 22.0S 170.1E 35
+6hr 12 am January 11 4 23.0S 169.9E 65
+12hr 6 am January 11 3 24.1S 170.1E 95
+18hr 12 pm January 11 3 25.3S 170.4E 120
+24hr 6 pm January 11 3 26.5S 171.1E 150
+36hr 6 am January 12 3 29.0S 173.1E 210
+48hr 6 pm January 12 2 31.2S 175.9E 270
+60hr 6 am January 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 6 pm January 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A46 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 101954 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.0S 170.1E AT 101800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
WEST SEMICIRCLE.

EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHT WARMING IN CLOUD TOPS PAST 6 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE IN LG SURROUND DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 24.1S 170.1E MOV S AT 12KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.5S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 12KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110200 UTC.

 

vms_banner_bg_14

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 14 for Anietyum Island, TAFEA province.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 14 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:08am VUT Monday 11 January 2016 for
Anietyum Island, TAFEA province.

At 5:00am local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (941 hPa) Category 4 was
located at 22.0 degrees South 170.0 degrees East. The Severe Tropical Cyclone
is positioned at the top right corner of square letter I, number 12 (I,12)
of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This is about 200 KM
south of Aneityum and 285 KM south southeast of Tanna.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula has moved in a south southwest direction at
14 KM/HR in the past 3 hours.

Winds close to the center are estimated at 165 KM/HR.
Expected position of the system in the next 6 hours will be near
23.7 degrees South 170.1 degrees East.

Strong force winds of 45 to 55 KM/HR will continue to affect
Anietyum island today and slowly decreasing as Tropical cyclone
Ula continues a southward movement away from Vanuatu Area.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 22.8S, 169.8E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 23.7S, 170.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 24.6S, 170.3E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 12 Jan) 25.7S, 171.0E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 12 Jan) 27.6S, 172.6E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 13 Jan) 29.1S, 174.7E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)

Seas will remain rough to very rough over southern waters with
heavy swells expected.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) has given ALL CLEAR
for TAFEA province.

This will be the final information on Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA unless the
systems turns back.

This warning is also available on VMGD’s website http://www.meteo.gov.vu
Bislama Translation

Tropikol Saeklon Woning Namba 14 lo Sevea Tropikol Saeklon Ula we i kamaot
lo Vanuatu Meteorology mo Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila lo
6:08am VUT Monday 11 January 2016.

Lo 5:00am lokal taem, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (941 hPa) Category 4 hemi
stap lo 22.0 degrees South 170.0 degrees East. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula
oli loketem kolosap lo top kona blo skwea leta I, namba 12 (I,12) insaed lo
Vanuatu Tropikol saeklon Traking Map. Hemia, hemi stap 200 KM south
blo Aneityum mo 285 KM south southeast blo Tanna. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula
i bin muv lo south southwest dareksen lo wan spid blo 14 KM/HR lo las 3 aoa we i pas.

Presa lo medel blo saeklon ia hemi kolosap lo 941 hPa. Pawa blo win kolosap
lo senta hemi 165 KM/HR. Sevea Tropikol saeklon Ula bai i muv i go lo
23.7 degrees South 170.1 degrees East lo nekis 06 kasem 12 aoa.

Ol win we pawa blo ol i save kasem 45 igo kasem 55KM/HR oli expekted blo stap
afektem Anietyum aelan mo slo slo bai i stap ko daon taem Tropikol saeklon
Ula i kontinu blo muv aot lo eria blo Vanuatu.

Fokas Posisen
Dei mo taem Posisen Pawa
+06 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 22.8S, 169.8E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 23.7S, 170.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 24.6S, 170.3E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 12 Jan) 25.7S, 171.0E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 12 Jan) 27.6S, 172.6E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 13 Jan) 29.1S, 174.7E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)

Solwora bai i raf tumas iet wetem ol bigfala swel i expekted blo afektem sol
wota blo saot.

Vanuatu Nasonal Disasta Manejmen Ofis hemi stap givim ALL CLEAR lo ol people
blo TAFEA.

Bae i no mo kat narafala woning we ba i kamaot.

Ol woning ia you save kasem lo website blo VMGD www.meteo.gov.vu

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) Warning #24
Issued at 10/2100Z

sh0616 10

 

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101800Z — NEAR 22.1S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 170.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 26.7S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 30.8S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 33.1S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT
HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE
TO INCREASED NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS NEARLY LOST ITS EYE FEATURE AND CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE
CORE HAVE WARMED. A 101525Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE; HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AN
ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BASED ON DECLINING
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE
WEAKENING SEEN IN ALL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06P IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN AXIS OF
THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS THE
CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE,
ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING TREND. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jan, 2016 6:00 GMT

Very Intense TC ULA is currently located near 20.5 S 170.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 115 kts (132 mph). ULA is a category category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. ULA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201606P 10a

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 047 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 101900 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0 SOUTH 170.1
EAST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 22.0S 170.1E at 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 85 KNOTS
BY 110600UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN EAST
SEMICIRLCE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.1S 170.1E AT 110600 UTC
AND NEAR 26.5S 171.1E AT 111800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 046

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Hurricane Patricia 20E CAT1: Tropical Storm Warning for Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas (NHC) – Updated 24 Oct 2015 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Patricia 20E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083407W5_NL_sm 24a

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM…SSW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM ENE OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). Patricia is
forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over
northern and northeastern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and
Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm later this morning,
and dissipate tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the warning area and over inland areas, especially in
higher elevations, near the center through this morning.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely
to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. During the
past 24 hours, a rainfall total of 10.25 inches (260 mm) has been
reported at Nevado De Colima in Jalisco state.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside but
will remain above normal through late today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 20E (Patricia) Warning #17
Issued at 24/0400Z

JTWC 24

20E_232345sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 240400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240000Z — NEAR 19.6N 104.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 104.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.7N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 25.0N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 104.3W.
HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 19E (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 24 Oct, 2015 3:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 20.2 N 104.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Zacatecas (22.8 N, 102.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 24

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 240832

WTPZ25 KNHC 240832
TCMEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WEST OF MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 250SE 60SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

More warnings here: METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1521-00 25

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°55′(19.9°)
E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05′(22.1°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00′(25.0°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

wp2115 25

21W_250532sams

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201521W 25A

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15092603

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Severe Tropical Storm 1517 Kilo downgraded to LOW: 11/1200Z 43N 148E, moving N 25 knots (JMA) – Published 11 Sept 2015 1905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Kilo

….downgraded to Low Pressure Area (LOW or LPA) (JMA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1517-00

JPwarn

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

LOW
Issued at 12:35 UTC, 11 September 2015

<Analyses at 11/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
LOW
Center position N43°00′(43.0°)
E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 980hPa

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm KILO (03C) currently located near 38.5 N 147.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 111200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW FORMER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1517 KILO (1517) 980 HPA
AT 43N 148E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 43N 153E 38N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 40N 151E 38N 149E 36N 142E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 49N 150E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 54N 153E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 142E 42N 143E 51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 45N 180E 40N
170E 37N 156E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 45N 138E NE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 41N 138E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 165E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 45N 167E SE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 115E TO 33N 121E 36N 126E 36N 129E 36N
132E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan: Severe Tropical Storm Etau (18W) 08/1500Z 32.1N 138.2E, moving N at 19 Knots (JMA) – Updated 08 Sept 2015 1518Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Etau (1518, 18W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1518-00 8

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

STS 1518 (ETAU)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 8 September 2015

<Analyses at 08/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N32°05′(32.1°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW170km(90NM)
<Estimate for 08/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N32°25′(32.4°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 08/21 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N33°50′(33.8°)
E137°40′(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area NE130km(70NM)
SW90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E136°35′(136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/09 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°35′(36.6°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 120km(65NM)
<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°40′(37.7°)
E134°20′(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 18W (Etau) Warning #08
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1815

WTPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 31.2N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.2N 138.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 34.8N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 37.4N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 38.3N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 39.9N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 32.1N 138.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 03C (KILO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ETAU (18W) currently located near 31.2 N 138.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201518W

OTHER REPORTS

Around 73,000 people were instructed to evacuate their homes in Hamamatsu, Shizuoka Prefecture, on Tuesday as an approaching typhoon brought heavy rain to the area in central Japan.

Typhoon Etau is located south of the Japanese archipelago and moving north. It is likely to come close to Japan on Wednesday morning and possibly make landfall, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The agency has already issued heavy rain warnings for parts of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Shizuoka and Aichi prefectures, and is alerting people to severe rain over a swath of the country from Tokyo and its surrounding region to the main island of Kyushu in southwestern Japan. If the typhoon moves northward on its projected course, it may make landfall on the Kii Peninsula at some point. At 12 p.m., the typhoon was located about 430 kilometers west-northwest of Chichijima Island in the Ogasawara island chain, moving north at a speed of 25 km per hour. The storm was packing winds of up to 126 kph with an atmospheric pressure of 990 hectopascals at its center. In Hamamatsu, some homes appear to have been flooded because of the rain, according to the municipal government. Some roads have also been closed to traffic due to flooding.

Tuesday, 08 September, 2015 at 11:07 (11:07 AM) UTC RSOE

BBC Japan hit by severe flooding and landslides – 10 Sept 2015 (GMT/UTC)

Widespread flooding and landslides in north-east Japan have forced more than 90,000 people to abandon their homes.

The city of Joso, north of the capital, Tokyo, was hit by a wall of water after the Kinugawa River burst its banks. Helicopter rescue teams have been plucking people from rooftops.

One person has been reported missing in the region and at least 12 are injured.

The rains come a day after Typhoon Etau brought winds of up to 125km/h (78mph) to central Aichi prefecture.

“This is a scale of downpour that we have not experienced before. Grave danger could be imminent,” the chief forecaster at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Takuya Deshimaru, told an emergency press conference earlier on Thursday.

The hardest-hit areas have been Ibaraki and Tochigi prefectures. Japan’s Meteorological Agency had put both regions on its highest level of alert.

Television footage from Joso in Ibaraki showed people clinging to the rooftops before helicopter rescue teams winched them to safety.

Entire homes and cars were carried away on the torrent as the Kinugawa River burst its banks after two days of heavy rainfall.

In Tochigi, more than 500mm (19 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours in places, according to local public broadcaster NHK, which said that was about double what normally falls there throughout the whole of September.

Parts of central Tochigi have seen almost 60cm of rain since Monday evening, breaking records.

Many other areas of eastern and north-eastern Japan have also been issued weather warnings, including Fukushima prefecture, home to the still-damaged nuclear plant hit in 2011’s earthquake and tsunami.

The downpour overwhelmed the site’s drainage pumps, a spokesman for operator Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco) said. Huge volumes of water, used to cool the plant’s crippled reactors, are being stored at the site.

Landslides and flooding

The Fire and Disaster Management Agency said 15 people had been injured across Japan. Two were elderly women seriously injured after being knocked over by strong winds.

Local media reported one person missing after a landslide hit a house in Kanuma, Tochigi prefecture.

Some areas had power cuts and transport was disrupted, with many air and train services cancelled or delayed. Some roads were also closed.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the authorities were doing their best.

“The government will stand united and do its best to deal with the disaster… by putting its highest priority on people’s lives,” he told reporters.

Last month, powerful Typhoon Goni hit Japan’s southernmost main island of Kyushu, killing at least one person and injuring 70 others.

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15090821

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081500

WTJP32 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1518 ETAU (1518) 985 HPA
AT 32.1N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 35.4N 136.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 37.7N 134.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan: Typhoon Kilo 03C 072100Z POSITION nr 25.9N 160.8E, WNW at 12 knots (JTWC) – Published 07 Sept 2015 2055z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Kilo 1517 03C

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

Typhoon Kilo

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Typhoon Kilo

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1517

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1517 (KILO)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 7 September 2015
<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°35′(25.6°)
E162°05′(162.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more N190km(100NM)
S130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°35′(26.6°)
E159°05′(159.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area N310km(170NM)
S240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E155°55′(155.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E151°00′(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E148°50′(148.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

Unit:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/cp0315.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 073
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 25.6N 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 161.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 26.6N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 27.9N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 29.4N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.4N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 35.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 43.2N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 160.8E.
TYPHOON 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1265 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1517 KILO (1517) 955 HPA
AT 25.6N 162.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 26.6N 159.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 27.9N 155.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 31.3N 151.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 35.4N 148.8E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

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Central Pacific/ Hawaii: Hurricane Ignacio 12E CAT4 301600Z POSITION nr 18.4N 148.5W, moving NNW 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 30 Aug 2015 1550z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Ignacio 12E CAT4

HAWAII: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS (NWS HONOLULU HI)

…..MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD….CPHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 36 FEET (JTWC)

ep201512_5day 29a (Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

ep201512_5day 29a
(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center

EP122015W1 30

WTPA33 PHFO 301154
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGNACIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
200 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.9N 148.2W
ABOUT 470 MI…750 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 680 MI…1090 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…948 MB…27.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE.
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE
INITIAL ISSUANCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM HST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST. IGNACIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND ON MONDAY…THEN NORTHEAST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH…220 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGNACIO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IGNACIO WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB…27.99 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY…AND STARTING
MONDAY ON MAUI.

RAINFALL…STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGNACIO WILL ARRIVE ALONG EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RESULTANT SURF WILL BE LARGE AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING…ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
HURRICANE IGNACIO LOCAL STATEMENT

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) Warning #23
Issued at 30/1600Z

ep1215 30

WTPN33 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 18.0N 148.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 148.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.1N 149.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 20.3N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 21.4N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 22.4N 153.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 24.3N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 26.5N 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 28.7N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 148.5W.
HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z
AND 311600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03C (KILO) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (JIMENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Tropical Storm Warning

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…HURRICANE IGNACIO APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST…

.AT 2 AM HST…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS ABOUT 400 NM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT.

PHZ122-124-310300-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.2012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
346 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

* WINDS AND SEAS…POTENTIALLY DISTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY
HIGH SEAS MAY AFFECT THESE AREAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT…
SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE.

$$

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1436

WTPA23 PHFO 301445 RRA
TCMCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE.
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE
INITIAL ISSUANCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 148.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 148.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 148.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.1N 149.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.3N 150.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
Marine Zone Forecast
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

Synopsis: A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS ABOUT 400 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO CUT THROUGH THE ISLAND/S WINDWARD WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Today
Northeast winds 20 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. Mixed swell northwest 3 ft and east 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers in the morning…then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight
North winds 20 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. Mixed swell northwest 3 ft and east 7 to 8 ft. Scattered showers.
Monday
Tropical storm conditions expected. Northwest winds 25 kt. Wind waves 9 ft. Swell east 9 ft. Showers likely.
Monday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. West winds 25 kt. Wind waves 11 ft. Swell east 10 to 11 ft. Showers likely.
Tuesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Southwest winds 20 kt. Wind waves 8 ft. Swell east 10 ft. Haze through the day. Showers likely in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. South winds 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Swell east 5 to 6 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Wednesday
South winds 15 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Wednesday Night
South winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Thursday
Southeast winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kyushu/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Goni (16W) 24/1500Z 30.5N 129.5E, moving NNE at 20 knots (JMA) – Updated 24 Aug 2015 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Goni / Ineng 16W

( = CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40 FEET- JTWC

Okinawa, Kyushu, JAPAN BEWARE!!

 Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Russia & China be aware!

Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC)

– UK Met Office

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1515-00 24 1600z
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15082421

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

CLICK IMAGE FOR LATEST WARNINGS

TY 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 24 August 2015

<Analyses at 24/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N30°50′(30.8°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Estimate for 24/17 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N31°05′(31.1°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM)
NW90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL460km(250NM)
<Forecast for 24/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°25′(32.4°)
E130°20′(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area SE200km(110NM)
NW140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 25/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°35′(34.6°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE220km(120NM)
NW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°50′(35.8°)
E131°25′(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°55′(36.9°)
E131°35′(131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW200km(110NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 16W (Goni) Warning #43
Issued at 24/1500Z

wp1615 24

wp16152409

16W_241132sair

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 29.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 128.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 33.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 36.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 38.9N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 129.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 29.6 N 128.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201516W 24

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Typhoon Goni set for landfall over Japan – UK Met Office

24 August 2015 – The very active typhoon season in the Pacific Ocean has continued with intense typhoons Goni and Atsani tracking across the ocean during the last week

Whilst Atsani has stayed out at sea, Goni moved very close to the northern tip of the Philippines before making a sharp turn northwards. The typhoon then passed close to Taiwan before starting to move across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. On Sunday the eye of Typhoon Goni passed over the island of Ishigaki with wind gusts of over 150 mph being recorded.

Goni is still a powerful typhoon as it accelerates north-eastwards towards south-western parts of mainland Japan. Landfall over Kyushu is expected close to midnight tonight UK time (2300 GMT/UTC) . Wind speeds in excess of 100 mph and heavy rain is expected bringing the risk of structural damage, damaging waves, flooding and landslides.

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

Typhoons Goni and Atsani on 20 August 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics 

The latest typhoons are part of an extremely active season for tropical cyclones across the whole Pacific Ocean brought about by the developing strong El Niño. In total there have been 28 tropical storms across the northern Pacific this year which includes 18 typhoons or hurricanes (different names for the same features in the west and east Pacific). 13 of the typhoons or hurricanes have been strong enough to be classified as ‘major’ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Meanwhile the Atlantic has been relatively quiet with just four tropical cyclones so far this season. However, in the last few days Danny became the first hurricane of the season and, despite being downgraded to a tropical storm, is bringing windy and wet conditions to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via on Twitter.

Last updated: 24 August 2015

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241500

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1515 GONI (1515) 940 HPA
AT 30.5N 129.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.9N 131.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY..=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Central Pacific/ Hawaii: Hurricane HILDA (10E) CAT4 09/0400Z POSITION nr 14.1N 144.7W, moving WNW 12 knots (JTWC) – Updated 09 Aug 2015 0835Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Hilda (10E)

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…..HILDA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII……CPHC

HAWAII BE AWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 36 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center

EP102015W

probEP102015_150809_0700_sata1

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI (Long Range Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI
(Long Range Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI (Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI
(Base Reflectivity)

WTPA35 PHFO 090243
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

…HILDA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.1N 144.5W
ABOUT 800 MI…1285 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1010 MI…1625 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.5 WEST. HILDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H. HILDA IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING STARTING ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES…205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB…28.06 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 10E (Hilda) Warning #13
Issued at 09/0400Z

ep1015 9

WTPN31 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 10E (HILDA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 10E (HILDA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090000Z — NEAR 13.9N 144.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 144.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 14.6N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 15.5N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 16.5N 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 17.5N 149.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 19.2N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 20.2N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 21.0N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 144.7W.
HURRICANE 10E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0235

WTPA25 PHFO 090235 RRA
TCMCP5

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 144.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT…….110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 144.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 144.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.6N 146.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…115NE 90SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.5N 147.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…125NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 148.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…125NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 149.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.2N 150.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…105NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

There may be other warnings here:

METAREA XII

FZHW60 PHFO 090340
OFFHFO

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR HAWAII
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 40 NAUTICAL MILES OUT TO 240
NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING THE PORTION OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT EAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT
OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN
TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PHZ105-091000-
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS…
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HURRICANE HILDA IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE THEN WEAK TO
A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

$$

PHZ180-091000-
HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…

.TONIGHT…E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. W OF
155W…SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUESDAY…E OF 154W…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…E
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…E OF 154W…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…E WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081510
TWDEP

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

TAIWAN/ CHINA: Typhoon Soudelor (13W) 081500Z POSITION near 24.9N 118.9E, moving NW at 08 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080815 1506Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Soudelor (13W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET (JTWC)

TAIWAN AND CHINA BEWARE!

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

Japan Meteorological agency

1513-00 8
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15080821

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 8 August 2015

<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°55′(24.9°)
E119°30′(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26°20′(26.3°)
E117°35′(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE220km(120NM)
SW190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E116°35′(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′(30.8°)
E116°00′(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

CWB Taiwan

CWB TAIWAN (Click here)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 13W (Soudelor) Warning #38
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1315 8

13W_081132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 24.6N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 119.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 25.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 27.6N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 118.9E.
TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SOUDELOR (13W) currently located near 24.6 N 119.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201513W 8

News Reports

Tropical Storm in Mariana Islands

President Barack Obama has declared the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands a disaster area and is ordering federal aid to help the U.S. territory in the aftermath of a destructive typhoon. The White House on Thursday announced the disaster declaration for Typhoon Soudelor, which destroyed homes, toppled trees and snapped utility poles over the weekend on the 48-square-mile island of Saipan. Damage surveys were ongoing, but the commonwealth remained without electricity and running water, and residents were rationing fuel. Most major roadways have been cleared of uprooted trees and debris, Saipan resident Glen Hunter said. “The morning after the typhoon, you could not get anywhere because of the power poles … and trees that fell on the ground,” lifelong Saipan resident Lucy Selepeo said. “The tin houses, practically everything just flew away. The only thing you can see from the houses are the foundations.” Selepeo said concrete homes that withstood the winds, like hers, are flooded. More than 500 people on Saipan were in shelters, according to the Red Cross. Officials distributed water at various stations across the island. Still, signs of aid remained scarce going into the fifth day after the storm, Selepeo said. “I encountered a family of eight who slept on the beach in their car because their home flew away,” she said. About 50,000 people live on the commonwealth’s four populated islands, with most residing on Saipan, which took the brunt of the storm. Nearby Tinian got some damage, while Rota was spared, said Gregorio Kilili Camcacho Sablan, the commonwealth’s delegate to U.S. Congress. As for Pagan, “No idea,” he said. “I have no way to contact Pagan.” Ten generators were being shipped from Guam to power water pumps in Saipan, but the harbor was closed Thursday because of a listing boat that was half underwater, Sablan said. Restoring power could take a month or two, he said. “I haven’t seen a storm like this in 20 years,” Sablan said. “Unfortunately, the resources we have are hardly enough to get things up.” Wind speeds during the storm were between 100 mph and 120 mph. In an area that’s used to typhoons, Sablan said he and others were expecting it to pass with maybe 80 mph winds. That there were no reports of deaths or serious injury “seems almost impossible,” Hunter said. There initially was a $20-per-vehicle limit on buying gasoline, which meant motorists could get only about four gallons, Hunter said. Some easily burned through that amount while waiting in long lines at the pumps. On Thursday, the limit increased to $50, Sablan said. Gov. Eloy Inos was on vacation visiting his children on the U.S. mainland. “He’s doing everything he can to come back home. … He’s very anxious,” Sablan said. Despite the desperate conditions, residents were hopeful.

“There is nowhere to go but up from here,” Selepeo said. “We’re optimistic. We will recover.”
Saturday, 08 August, 2015 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

seawarn 8

Marine Warnings: SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

23:35 JST 08/08/2015

OKINAWA WX
082100JST ISSUED AT 082335JST

STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF
OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970HPA AT 24.9N 119.5E MOVING NNW 09KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150NM NE SIDE AND 100NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350NM EAST SIDE AND 270NM ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900JST AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 55KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100JST AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 45KT NEAR CENTER

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 50KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100JST AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WARNING VALID 092100JST

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN /081200

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 970 HPA
AT 24.9N 119.5E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 26.3N 117.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 27.9N 116.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 30.8N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/Hawaii(US): Hurricane Guillermo 09E CAT2 012100Z 13.8N 140.1W, moving WNW 12 knots (NHC) – Published 010915 2156z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Guillermo (09E)

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather Service
National Hurricane Center

204754W5_NL_sm
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 012040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

…GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.8N 140.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI…1725 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 140.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts. Guillermo should begin to gradually weaken tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future public advisories will be issued by
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Avila

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 012039

WTPZ24 KNHC 012039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 140.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOTCMCP4, WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC…BEGINNING AT 02/0300Z.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

There may be other warnings here:
METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Hurricane Blanca (02E) CAT2 070400Z POSITION nr 19.3N 110.4W, moving NNW 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 070615 0920Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Blanca 02E

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Guasave Radar Loop

Guasave Radar Loop

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083620W5_NL_sm B7

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 070837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.8N 110.8W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI…575 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.8 West. Blanca is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slight increase
in forward speed tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca will approach the southwest coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and move near or along the coast
tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical storm
tonight before it reaches the southwestern coast of the Baja
California peninsula. Blanca is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression Monday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
southern portion of the warning area by late this morning or early
this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions will then spread northward elsewhere
within the warning area tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 10 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
half of the state of Baja California, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches over Baja California Sur. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 02E (Blanca) Warning #26
Issued at 07/0400Z

ep0215 B7

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070000Z — NEAR 18.8N 110.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 110.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 20.4N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 22.4N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 24.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 26.4N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.9N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 110.4W.
HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM EAST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.//
NNNN

END

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2015 9:00 GMT

Hurricane BLANCA (02E) currently located near 19.8 N 110.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 B7

000
FZPN03 KNHC 070256
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN JUN 07 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUN 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUN 09.

.WARNINGS.
…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 19.2N 110.4W 952 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 07
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 130 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT…
390 NM SE QUADRANT…210 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…240 NM
SE QUADRANT…240 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 27N
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 22.4N 111.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
260 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 10
TO 15 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 103W AND
127W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 24.6N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 26.4N 113.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BLANCA NEAR 29.9N
114.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMNANT LOW OF ANDRES NEAR 18N120W 1007 MB DRIFTING SE. WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS MERGE WITH BLANCA.

.S OF 00N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 06N79W TO 10N100W TO 10N120W TO
00N120W…EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07…

.HURRICANE BLANCA…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 109W
AND 112W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
108W AND 114W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN
88W AND 100W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
104W AND 114W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
ITCZ FROM 11N130W TO 10N140W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Andres (01E) CAT2 weakens slightly (NHC). 311000Z POSITION nr 15.5N 117.5W, moving WNW 06 knots (JTWC) – Published 310515 1447Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Andres (01E)

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…..ANDRES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY…..NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083827W5_NL_sm A31
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
200 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

…ANDRES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.4N 117.4W
ABOUT 710 MI…1145 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 117.4 West. Andres is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected today, and this general motion should
continue through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0115.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
310600Z — NEAR 15.3N 117.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 117.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 15.8N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 16.3N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 16.8N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 17.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 19.0N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 19.5N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 19.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 117.5W.
HURRICANE 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2

000
FZPN03 KNHC 310941
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN MAY 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUN 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUN 02.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ANDRES NEAR 15.4N 117.4W 968 MB AT 0900 UTC MAY 31
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE
QUADRANT…90 NM SE QUADRANT…80 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
210 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 33 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM
OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 06N TO 23N BETWEEN 109W AND 125W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ANDRES NEAR 16.3N 119.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 08N TO 24N BETWEEN
113W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ANDRES NEAR 17.5N 122.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…90 NM NE QUADRANT AND
60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N AND 210
NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N
AND 210 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA S OF 25N TO A LINE FROM 06N117W TO 06N123W TO
12N134W BETWEEN 117W AND 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ANDRES NEAR 19.0N 125.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES NEAR 19.5N 127.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ANDRES NEAR 19.5N
128.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
18N134W TO 15N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY
IN MIXED E AND SW SWELL.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N102W 1008 MB. WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 12N104W 1006 MB. WITHIN 75 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 13N105W 1006 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST S OF 00N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 08N E OF 124W TO A LINE FROM 08N113W TO
03.4S100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S95W TO 04N110W TO
00N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO
14.5N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
15.5N95W TO 13N96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED NE
AND SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95.5W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0730 UTC SUN MAY 31…
.HURRICANE ANDRES…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN
110W TO 116W.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N102W 1008 MB…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180
NM SE AND S QUADRANTS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N119W TO 07N126W TO 10N137W TO
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG BETWEEN 60 NM AND 330 NM
SE OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 125W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Yap/ Fais/ Ulithi/ Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Super Typhoon Maysak (04W) / Chedeng 311500Z POSITION near 10.4N 139.3E, moving W at 14 knots (JTWC) – 310315 1615z (GMT/UTC)

Super Typhoon Maysak (04W)/ Chedeng (in Philippines)

YAP in the Caroline Islands & Philippines beware!

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1504-00 M31

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 31 March 2015

<Analyses at 31/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Violent
Center position N10°10′(10.2°)
E139°55′(139.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N10°40′(10.7°)
E137°35′(137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°20′(11.3°)
E135°55′(135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°40′(12.7°)
E133°35′(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°55′(13.9°)
E130°40′(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

Philippines

Pagasa LogoPAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

TC Update: as of 10PM today 31 March 2015 (PhT), Typhoon w/ International Name “MAYSAK” was located at 1,530 km East of Surigao City (10.2°N, 139.4°E). Maximum sustained winds of 205kph near the center and gustiness of up to 240kph. It is forecast to move West Northwest at 20kph

11066785_778410438935534_8001588373223099484_n

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0415 M31

04W_311132sair

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311200Z — NEAR 10.2N 139.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 139.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 10.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 11.5N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 12.2N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 13.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 14.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 15.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 15.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 139.3E.
SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT

Super Typhoon MAYSAK (04W) currently located near 10.2 N 139.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image TSR)

(Image TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Philippines – As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping issued – Dost pagasa

TYPHOON WARNING

WTJP31 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1504 MAYSAK (1504) 905 HPA
AT 10.3N 139.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 10.8N 137.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 11.3N 135.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
895 HPA, MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm BAVI / BETTY(1503) 170600Z nr 15.3N 135.4E, moving WNW at 13 knots (JMA) – Updated 170315 0820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Bavi (1503)(03W)/ “BETTY” in Philippines

…BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT….NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

wp201503_sat_anim BAVI 17

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1503-00 BAVI 17

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15031709

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 17 March 2015

<Analyses at 17/06 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N15°20′(15.3°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW280km(150NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N15°35′(15.6°)
E133°40′(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N16°05′(16.1°)
E131°55′(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity –
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°30′(16.5°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 17 March 2015 Satellite Image 
betty 15031700 bettysat 15031700

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BETTY” (BAVI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 17 March 2015

The Tropical Storm {BAVI} east of Bicol Region will enter The Philippine Area Of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon and will be named “BETTY”.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
1,530 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.4°N, 136.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: 24 hour (Tomorrow morning):
1,030 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
48 hour (Thursday morning):
640 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
72 hour (Friday morning):
270 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
No Public Storm Warning Signal

Estimated rainfall amount is from 2.5 – 7.5 mm per hour (light – moderate) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

The Tropical Storm is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM today.

 11  a.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

errorTrack1 BAVI 17
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170235
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

…TROPICAL STORM BAVI WEAKENING…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.3N 135.8E

ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST…290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.8 EAST…MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WESTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES…MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0315 BAVI 17

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_162332sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 170300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170000Z — NEAR 15.2N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 136.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 15.6N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 15.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 170600

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1503 BAVI (1503) 998 HPA
AT 15.3N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.6N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.1N 131.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.5N 129.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTPH RPMM 170000
TTT GALE WARNING 01

AT 0000 17 MARCH TROPICAL STORM [BAVI] {1503} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Further warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone PAM 17P CAT3 151500Z POSITION nr 34.2S 178.8E, moving SE at 20 Kts (JTWC) – Updated 150315 1448z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 17P (PAM)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201517_sat_anim Pam 15

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

New Zealand

Issued at 12:54am Monday 16 Mar 2015 (Local time)

UPDATE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM

At midnight Sunday tropical cyclone Pam was situated about 450km to the northeast of Auckland and 450km to the north of East Cape. It has already brought 70mm or rain to parts of Gisborne and 140 to 150 kilometer an hour wind gusts to exposed parts of Auckland and Northland.

It is expected to lie about 150km east of East Cape (northern Gisborne)by midday Monday,then move away from the New Zealand coastline towards the Chatham Islands.Strong southeast winds and rain are expected over much of the North Island today, along with extremely large seas about the east coast.Wind gusts of 160 km/h or more are possible about the eastern Bay of Plenty and northern parts of Gisborne.Winds of this strength are likely to cause damage to trees and powerlines and could lift roofs and make for hazardous driving conditions.A burst of heavy rain accompanies these winds, with 180-220 mm possible about the Gisborne ranges.Please refer to the latest severe weather warnings and watches issued by MetService for more information. The total combined waves (sea and swell)generated by cyclone Pam are expected to rise to 7-8m around the northern New Zealand coastline and even up to 9m around the northern Gisborne coast.
For any further information go to: http://www.metservice.com/national/home
The next update to this blog will be around midnight Sunday 15 March.
For further information please contact:
Duty Meteorologist 044700815
+++++++++++++

Cyclone Pam – Latest update 1am Monday 16th March

HORDUR THORDARSON, METSERVICE METEOROLOGIST

Sunday 16 March 2015 1:00am

Category 3 Cyclone Pam was lying near 34S 178.5E at midnight, or about 450 kilometres northeast of Auckland and 450 kilometres north of East Cape on a track to the south-southeast as shown on the image below.

Track

The effects of Cyclone Pam are already being felt in some areas. A wind gust to 150 kilometres per hour was observed near Kaeo in Northland and a gust of 144 kilometres an hour was observed at Channel Island between Coromandel Peninsula and Great Barrier Island this evening. Rain is becoming heavy in Gisborne and and 70mm have already accumulated in some areas there.

Rain radar at 11pm Sunday
Rain radar at 11pm Sunday

Pam is expected to be reclassified early this morning and will from then on be considered an extra tropical cyclone.

Infra red image at 11pm Sunday
Infra red image at 11pm Sunday

Why will it be re classified? The reason for this is that the nature of the system changes. A tropical cyclone derives its energy from latent heat released in strong deep convection. Warm moist air over a warm sea surface rises, condenses, warms further and continues to rise. This is the energy that intensifies and maintains a tropical cyclone. Once the cyclone moves south out of the tropics and over cooler waters this energy source decreases. Normally this will lead to a slow weakening of the system.

There is however a new energy source that becomes available to the storm as it moves out of the tropics. This energy comes from the difference between hot and cold air. If there is a large temperature difference over a relatively short distance this can be a powerful source of energy that re-energises the storm as it moves out of the tropics.

The main differences between a tropical cyclone and an extra tropical cyclone are:

Tropical Cyclone                                                Extra tropical cyclone

No fronts                                                             Fronts

Winds max close the centre                           Wind maximum well away front the centre

Driven by latent heat release                         Strong temperature gradients

Reclassification does not mean that “Pam” no longer poses any threat. Extremely strong wind gusts, heavy rain and phenomenal waves are still expected, and details can be found in http://www.metservice.com/warnings/home as well as in http://blog.metservice.com/ or http://www.metservice.com/national/home

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1715 pam 15

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_151132sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 151500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 33.3S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3S 178.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 37.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 34.2S 178.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND LIMITED CORE CONVECTION, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THIS IS CONFIRMED
WITH A 151246Z GPM IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM TAKING ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS IT BECOMES FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone PAM (17P) currently located near 33.3 S 178.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201517P pam 15

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING

ZCZC 387
WHNZ41 NZKL 150626
HURRICANE WARNING 246
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: SUBTROPIC AND FORTIES
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM 950HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0 SOUTH 177.
4 EAST AT 150600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 32.0S 177.4E AT 150600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 70
KNOTS BY 151800 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 160600 UTC.
PHENOMENAL SEA EASING TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 320 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 280 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 35.6S 179.9E AT 151800 UTC
AND NEAR 38.4S 177.6W AT 160600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 243.

NNNN

.Further warnings here:

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm 1502/ 02W HIGOS 072100Z POSITION nr 11.8N 157.6E, moving N at 6 knots (JTWC) – Published 070215 2150z

Tropical Storm HIGOS (1502, 02W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1502

TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 7 February 2015

<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N11°25′(11.4°)
E157°25′(157.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°05′(12.1°)
E156°30′(156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°40′(12.7°)
E154°50′(154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°35′(13.6°)
E152°55′(152.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0215.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02W_071732sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 11.6N 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 157.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 12.4N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 12.9N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 13.4N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.3N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 15.8N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 16.7N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 157.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane Web Page

070215 2003Z

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots.
Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas.
Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA’s GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN - Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots. 
   Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas. 
  Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA's GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

ZCZC 538
WTPQ50 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 11.4N 157.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 12.1N 156.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 091800UTC 12.7N 154.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 101800UTC 13.6N 152.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 111800UTC 15.0N 151.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
120HF 121800UTC 16.0N 149.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =
NNNN

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 11.4N 157.4E MARSHALLS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 12.1N 156.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 12.7N 154.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.6N 152.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

More warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Pacific Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ola 09F /10P 011200Z near 21.1S 162.1E, moving S at 7 knots (RSMC NADI) – Updated 010215 1836z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ola 09F /10P

Category Cyclone 3 (mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa) – RSMC Nadi

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone OLA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 1327 UTC Sunday 1 February 2015

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone OLA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm February 1 3 21.1S 162.1E 110
+6hr 6 pm February 1 3 21.6S 162.0E 140
+12hr 12 am February 2 3 22.2S 161.9E 165
+18hr 6 am February 2 3 22.6S 161.7E 195
+24hr 12 pm February 2 3 23.1S 161.5E 220
+36hr 12 am February 3 2 23.8S 160.8E 280
+48hr 12 pm February 3 2 24.6S 159.9E 345
+60hr 12 am February 4 1 25.5S 159.4E 430
+72hr 12 pm February 4 1 26.1S 159.4E 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/1711 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 3^ CENTRE 955HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.1S 162.1E AT 011200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LLCC EMBEDDED IN WHITE GIVING
DT=5.0, PT=5.0 AND MET=5.0.DT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 22.2S 161.9E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 23.1S 161.5E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 23.8S 160.8E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 24.6S 159.9E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
012000 UTC.

(* RSMC NADI
Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa )

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 1 February 2015
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 4 February 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone Ola, situated well offshore of the Queensland east coast (west
of New Caledonia) is expected to move in a general southwards direction over
the next couple of days and may enter the region on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone
Ola should be on a weakening trend around the time it approaches the region,
though for the latest information on this system refer to the Fiji
Meteorological Service website at http://www.met.gov.fj.

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next few days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday Very low
Tuesday Low
Wednesday Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1015

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10P_010532sams.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z — NEAR 20.5S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 162.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 21.8S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 22.9S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 23.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 24.8S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 26.0S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 26.2S 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 162.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE BUT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A
010428Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, TC OLA HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
FROM 45 KTS TO AN ASSESSED INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. MODERATE (10 TO 20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THAT TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
BEYOND THIS, EXPECT A RIDGE TO FORM SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING TC
10P TO GAIN A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. DUE TO THE INCREASED VWS AND
COOLER SSTS, EXPECT TC OLA TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AND
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIFURCATION
IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH GFS DRIVEN MODELS CONTINUING TO
FORCE TC 10P SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, WHICH MAY STILL BE A
POSSIBLE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WILL BE MILD BEFORE VWS AND
SSTS CAUSE IT TO DETERIORATE. FOR THE ABOVE REASONS, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND
020900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 044 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 01/1302 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA CENTRE 955HPA CATEGORY 3* WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1 SOUTH 162.1
EAST AT 011200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.1S 162.1E at 011200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 7 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY
021200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.2S 161.9E AT 020000 UTC
AND NEAR 23.1S 161.5E AT 021200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 043.

(* RSMC NADI
Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa )

There are other warnings at:

METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Central Pacific/ HAWAII: Tropical Storm ISELLE 09E 081000Z near 19.0N 155.3W, moving W at 09 knots. 43nm from Hilo (JTWC) – Updated 080814 1100z (UTC)

Tropical Storm ISELLE 09E

…ISELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE BIG ISLAND…NWS CHC

TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 09E

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI…
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center

5 Day Track for ISELLE

WTPA33 PHFO 080847
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014

…ISELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE BIG ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…19.0N 155.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI…
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 155.1 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY…WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB…29.39 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE BIG
ISLAND…AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT…AND FOR OAHU ON
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAUAI COUNTY
LATER FRIDAY.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISELLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AS WELL AS
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE IS PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING SURF…MAINLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND. THIS DAMAGING SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU…1 TO 2 FT

SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES…100 AM HST AND 300 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE LOCAL STATEMENT

WFO Honolulu

Hawaii RSS FeedsHI RSS Feeds

At 11:00 PM HST, the center of
Tropical Storm Iselle
was located at 19.0N 155.1W.
50 miles S of Hilo
75 miles SE of Kailua-Kona
40 miles E of South Point
155 miles SSE of Kahului
200 miles SE of Kaunakakai
170 miles SE of Lanai City
240 miles SE of Honolulu
335 miles SE of Lihue
380 miles ESE of Niihau
At 11:00 PM HST, the center of
Hurricane Julio
was located at 17.8N 140.4W.
965 miles E of Hilo
1030 miles E of Kailua-Kona
1005 miles E of South Point
1065 miles ESE of Kahului
1115 miles ESE of Kaunakakai
1095 miles ESE of Lanai City
1160 miles ESE of Honolulu
1255 miles ESE of Lihue
1310 miles ESE of Niihau
1990 miles SW of Las Vegas NV

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)(US Military)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0914.gif

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 081000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 09E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
080600Z — NEAR 18.9N 154.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 154.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 19.2N 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 19.8N 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 20.2N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 20.8N 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 22.2N 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 24.0N 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 25.7N 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 155.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E
(JULIO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Hawaii Red Cross

Honolulu, Hawaii

Disaster Preparedness

“In Hawaii due to our isolation, we encourage all families to be prepared for 7 days instead of 72 hours. It will take time following a disaster for a logistics bridge to be built to Hawaii if our harbors and airports are affected by a major disaster and we may be relying on our own resources longer than other places within the United States. The following information is provided to help you better develop your own disaster plan and improve your family, business and community’s resiliency.” – Hawaii Red Cross

redcross.org/hawaii

http://www.redcross.org/find-help

MARITIME/SHIPPING

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE LOCAL STATEMENT

 

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0850

WTPA24 PHFO 080850 RRB
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 159.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.2N 164.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 140.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

..
FORECASTER POWELL

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0530

FZPN02 KWBC 080530
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI AUG 08 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 10.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 59N174W 985 MB MOVING SE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM N AND 360 NM
SW QUADRANTS AND 300 NM SE OF FRONT FROM 56N153W TO 50N163W TO
46N174W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300
NM N QUADRANT AND 360 NM SE OF FRONT AND FROM 52N TO 58N W OF
168W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N164W 989 MB. BETWEEN 300 NM AND 660 NM
W QUADRANT AND BETWEEN 300 NM AND 720 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N157W 993 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S AND 600 NM
W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 60N148W TO 52N148W TO
42N164W. WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO
15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 56N150W 990 MB. WITHIN 420 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 360 NM SE OF FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 56N140W TO
47N147W TO 39N156W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 34N TO 44N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 45N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 33N TO 44N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 55N167E 997 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 42N166E TO 49N174E TO 56N175E AREA OF W
TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 179W AND 164E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS NW AND W OF A LINE FROM 38N160E TO 46N161W TO 63N166W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 49N BETWEEN 149W AND
160W AND W OF A LINE FROM 39N164E TO 50N168E TO 58N178E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 57N BETWEEN 137W AND
146W AND W OF A LINE FROM 40N164E TO 44N172E TO 57N177E.

.HIGH 35N141W 1026 MB MOVING E 05 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N138W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 46N132W 1024 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 38N164W 1025 MB MOVING S 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N163W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 43N144W 1026 MB MOVING E 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 38N172E 1026 MB MOVING NW 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N167E 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N172E 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI AUG 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT AUG 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN AUG 10.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 17.4N 139.1W 966 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 08
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT
GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 250 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO
36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N AND 180 S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 FT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N
TO 24N W OF 133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 18.5N 144.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. 12 FT SEAS W OF AREA. FROM
16N TO 24N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 20.6N 149.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. CONDITIONS
W OF AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 22.9N 154.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 24.2N 159.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 25.0N 163.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC FRI AUG 8…

.HURRICANE JULIO…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 100 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO
19N W OF 136W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 10N92W. ITCZ FROM 12N120W TO
06N134W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N
TO 09N E OF 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 124W
AND 132W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC AUG 08 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 09 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC AUG 10 2014.

.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ISELLE NEAR 19.0N 153.1W MOVING W 13 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM NE…90 NM SE…20 NM SW…120 NM NW QUADRANTS.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM ELSEWHERE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ISELLE NEAR 19.8N 158.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE…10 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM
S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM ELSEWHERE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE NEAR 20.6N 163.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 25 NM ELSEWHERE. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE NEAR 21.6N 167.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ISELLE NEAR 23.5N
173.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ISELLE NEAR 26.4N
179.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

.SEE WTPA23 PHFO BULLETIN ISSUED BY CPHC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 17.8N 141.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE…90 NM SE…60 NM SW…100 NM NW QUADRANT.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 360 NM N AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 18.5N 144.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE…NW AND SE QUADRANTS…AND WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 280 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
150 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 20.6N 149.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT…AND WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 280 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JULIO NEAR 22.9N 154.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR
GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 24.2N 159.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JULIO NEAR 25.0N 163.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

.SEE WTPN32 PGTW BULLETIN ISSUED BY JTWC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 16.2N 176.7E MOVING NW 9 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT GUSTS 170 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 115 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT
OR MORE WITHIN 330 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240
NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM ELSEWHERE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 19.9N 175.4E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE…130 NM SE…125 NM SW…135 NM NW. SEAS 12 FT
OR MORE WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 220 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 400 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240
NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM ELSEWHERE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 25.6N 174.3E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR MORE WITHIN 240 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 220 NM ELSEWHERE.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE NEAR 31.0N 169.7E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR
GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TYPHOON GENEVIEVE MOVED N OF FORECAST AREA
NEAR 33.6N 165.7E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.

.SEE WTPN32 PGTW BULLETIN ISSUED BY JTWC FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 05N161E 1006 MB MOVING WNW 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED W OF FORECAST AREA.

.TROUGH FROM 09N160E TO 08N169E TO 13N175E NEARLY STATIONARY.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH W OF 163E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 09N160E TO 10N170E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 30N175W TO 26N177E MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 100 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N178E TO 26N175E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 15N140W TO 09N147W NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATING.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.RIDGE FROM 10N173W TO 00N173E MOVING W SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 173W
AND 179E. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 164E
AND 179E.

$$
.HONOLULU HI=

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