United States (FL): Tropical Storm EMILY 311800Z nr 27.6N 82.2W, moving E at 10 mph (NHC FL) – Published 31 Jul 2017 1825z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm EMILY

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

National Hurricane Center (FL)

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311748
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

…EMILY LOCATED INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SW OF BARTOW FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River
southward to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.2 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will
continue to move farther inland over the west-central Florida
peninsula this afternoon, and move across central Florida through
tonight. Emily is forecast to move offshore of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
while it moves across the Florida peninsula this afternoon and
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km),
mainly southeast through south of the center. A wind gust to 38 mph
was recently observed in Punta Gorda, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts
possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1434

WTNT21 KNHC 311434
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017
1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 82.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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China/ Taiwan: Tropical Storm Haitang 302100Z position nr 24.8N 119.7E, moving NNW 13kt (JTWC) – Updated 30 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Haitang 12W

(Huaning in Philippines – Use hashtag )

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

wp201712_5day Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201712_sat_anim Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 12W (Haitang) Warning #11
Issued at 30/2100Z

 

wp1217 Haitang JTWC 30

 

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 24.2N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 120.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 26.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 28.5N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 119.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z,
310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 07W (NORU)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1710-00 JMA 00 Haitang

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TS 1710 (Haitang)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 30 July 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 30 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E120°20′ (120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 440 km (240 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°05′ (29.1°)
E116°10′ (116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jul, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAITANG is currently located near 24.2 N 120.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). HAITANG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201712W Haitang TSR1 30

(Image: TSR)

201712W_0 Haitang TSR2 30

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn 30

JMA map 30

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 301800

WTJP22 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1710 HAITANG (1710) 990 HPA
AT 24.7N 120.3E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 28.2N 117.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 29.1N 116.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ China: Typhoon Nesat 11W 290900Z 23.9°N 122.4°E, moving NNW 20 km/h (11 kt) (JMA)- Updated 29 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Nesat 11W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Taiwan, Ishigaki Island, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) and China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z  IS 32 FEET- JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1709 (Nesat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 29 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°55′ (23.9°)
E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 10 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°05′ (24.1°)
E122°20′ (122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°50′ (24.8°)
E119°30′ (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 140 km (75 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°05′ (25.1°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E117°35′ (117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 11W (Nesat) Warning #14
Issued at 29/0900Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 23.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 122.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 24.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 25.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 27.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 31.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 122.2E.
TYPHOON 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE)WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT is currently located near 23.3 N 122.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NESAT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NESAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA)

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 290900

WTJP34 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1709 NESAT (1709) 960 HPA
AT 23.9N 122.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 24.8N 119.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 25.1N 118.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnam/ Laos/ Thailand: Tropical Storm SONCA 08W 25/0900Z nr 17.1°N 107.0°E, moving W 09 knots (CMA) – Published 25 Jul 2017 1257z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm SONCA 08W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

Typhoon Message

20170725 17:17


National Meteorological Center No.306
Analysis Time: Jul. 25th 09 UTC
Name of TC: SONCA
Num. of TC: 1708
Current Location: 17.1°N 107.0°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 20m/s(72km/h)
Central Pressure: 996hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 90km SE 90km SW 90km NW 90km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs SONCA will moving W at speed of 15km/h

 

 

TS 1708 (Sonca)
Issued at 10:10 UTC, 25 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 25 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N16°55′ (16.9°)
E106°55′ (106.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 25 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E104°55′ (104.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 26 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N17°00′ (17.0°)
E102°50′ (102.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 08W (Sonca) Warning #18 Final Warning
Issued at 25/0900Z

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (SONCA) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 17.0N 107.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 107.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 17.1N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 17.0N 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 106.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM NORTHWEST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 25 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SONCA is currently located near 17.0 N 107.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). SONCA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Laos
        probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

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(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com)

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MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

WWJP25 RJTD 250600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 147E 50N 152E 58N 152E 58N 172E 52N 170E 40N
151E 40N 147E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 139E 42N 141E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 41N 180E 38N 165E 38N 150E 33N 142E 33N
139E 35N 139E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 27N 139E NE SLOWLY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 49N 141E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 55N 149E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 13N 129E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 24N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 47N 179E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 120E TO 37N 129E 37N 136E 38N 140E 39N 144E
46N 152E 50N 155E 52N 162E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1705 NORU (1705) 970 HPA AT 25.9N 157.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1706 KULAP (1706) 1002 HPA AT 32.8N 155.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1708 SONCA (1708) 994 HPA AT 17.1N 107.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 250600

WTJP23 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1708 SONCA (1708) 994 HPA
AT 17.1N 107.7E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 17.2N 105.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 17.2N 103.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

China/ Hong Kong/ Macau: Tropical Depression ROKE 10W 222100Z position nr 22.1N 115.7E, moving WNW 12 knots (JTWC) – Published 22 Jul 2017 1930z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression ROKE 10W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 10W (Roke) Warning #05
Issued at 22/2100Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (ROKE) WARNING NR 005
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221800Z — NEAR 21.9N 116.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 116.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 22.7N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 23.5N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 115.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Jul, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Depression ROKE is currently located near 21.9 N 116.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). ROKE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1707 ROKE (1707) 1002 HPA
AT 21.7N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 22.8N 115.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 23.9N 112.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hawaii/ Central Pacific: Tropical Storm Fernanda (06E) 202100Z near 18.2N 140.4W, moving W 11 knots (NHC) – Updated 20 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda (06E)

…FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC….(NHC)

Hawaii be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET (JTWC)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 202035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

…FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.2N 140.4W
ABOUT 965 MI…1555 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 140.4 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general motion
toward the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Fernanda is expected to become a tropical depression
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO
header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 06E (Fernanda) Warning #35
Issued at 20/1600Z

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 035
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 18.1N 138.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 138.7W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 18.6N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 19.0N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 19.5N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 20.1N 145.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 21.5N 149.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.5N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 24.0N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 139.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 936 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: RSMC Miami)


METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2034

WTPZ21 KNHC 202034 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062017
2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 139.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 140.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

 

================================================================================

FZPN02 KWBC 201725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 177W AND 175E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 180W AND 170E WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN
169E AND 178W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 30N168E 999 MB. FROM 30N TO 34N
BETWEEN 164E AND 172E WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 163E AND 172E WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 53.92N 168.03W IS IN A STATE OF UNREST.
MARINERS TRAVELING IN THE VICINITY OF BOGOSLOF VOLCANO ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION. IF MARINERS ENCOUNTER ANY VOLCANIC
ASH…REPORT THE OBSERVATION TO THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER BY
CALLING 301-683-1520.

.FROM 33N TO 38N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 43N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.LOW 55N149W 1002 MB DRIFTING SE. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 57N140W TO
56N146W TO 50N141W TO 47N140W TO 44N142W. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300
NM N QUADRANT…ALSO WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E OF FRONT…AND FROM
43N TO 48N BETWEEN 155W AND 165W…ALSO FROM 53N TO 58N BETWEEN
161W AND 166W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW FORMED NEAR
51N144W 1001 MB. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 53N157W TO 56N150W TO
56N144W TO 53N140W TO 50N133W TO 47NB131W. WITHIN 180 NM NW…N
AND NE OF FRONT…ALSO FROM 41N TO 50N BETWEEN 136W AND 147W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N141W 1002 MB. FROM 49N TO 54N BETWEEN
133W AND 146W…AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM 55N147W TO
55N134W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.S OF 33N W OF 165E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED W OF AREA.

.FROM 45N TO 50N BETWEEN 175W AND 175E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 47N164W 1012 MB. FROM 42N TO 45N
BETWEEN 160W AND 173W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N155W 1011 MB. FORECAST CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 48N
BETWEEN 142W AND 164W AND W OF A LINE FROM 61N170W TO 50N179W TO
46N170W TO 44N170W TO 40N176W TO 37N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 155W AND
164W…ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 153W AND 158W…AND W OF A
LINE FROM 60N175W TO 40N174E TO 38N160E…ALSO FROM 40N TO 43N
BETWEEN 175W AND 174E…ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 153W AND
158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 45N BETWEEN 142W AND
156W…ALSO FROM 50N TO 53N BETWEEN 152W AND 159E…AND W OF A
LINE FROM 58N180W TO 46N176E TO 41N163E.

.HIGH 41N180W 1033 MB MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N173E 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N169E 1027 MB.

.HIGH 58N179W 1018 MB MOVING SW 10 KT…THEN TURNING E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 56N178E 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 53N176W 1023 MB.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N136W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N137W 1025 MB.

.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUL 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.1N 115.4W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL
20 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.7N 118.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120NM NW AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 15.4N 122.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE…60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW AND
120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 16.0N 127.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 16.3N 131.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 17.0N 135.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 18.2N 139.2W 995 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUL 20 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE
QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT…50 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE…120
NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF LINE
FROM 26N134W TO 19N134W TO 13N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA W OF AREA NEAR 19.0N
142.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE…50 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 139W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF LINE FROM 25N137W TO
16N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA W OF AREA
NEAR 20.1N 145.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 21.5N
149.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 22.5N
154.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 24.0N
160.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 13.4N 123.1W 1009 MB AT 1500
UTC JUL 20 MOVING WSW OR 245 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 180NM SE AND 60 NM NW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 12.1N 124.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EIGHT-E NEAR 11.6N
125.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 150 NM
SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N104W 1010 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 450 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
13N109W 1009 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N112W 1008 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF
LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO
15N95.5W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 86.5W AND 89W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN E AND SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 89W AND
92W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 FT IN E AND SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 88.5W…INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC THU JUL 20…

.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NE
QUADRANT WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM GREG…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER…EXCEPT NW QUADRANT.

.TROPICAL WAVE 06N TO 19N ALONG 104W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1010
MB NEAR 12N104W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO
12N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB
NEAR 07N86W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 11N104W. SCATTERED TO
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W
AND 94W.

.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20 2017.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 21 2017.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22 2017.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA JUST E OF AREA 18.2N 139.2W AT 20/1500Z
MOVING W 08 KT. MAX WINDS 55 KT G 65 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER
WITHIN 70 NM NW QUADRANT…50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT…90 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT ELSEWHERE E OF LINE 25N145W 22N150W 16N147W 13N142W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA 19.0N 142.4W. MAX
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER WITHIN 50 NM NE
QUADRANT…40 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…150 NM SW QUADRANT…210 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY 26N140W 14N140W 12N145W
21N153W 24N152W 26N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 20.1N 145.8W.
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT…90 NM
S SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY
25N145W 23N140W 18N145W 16N155W 22N153W 25N145W.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 21.5N 149.5W.
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR OUTLOOK POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 22.5 154.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.
.120 HOUR OUTLOOK POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 24.0N 160.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 24N178E 1008 MB MOVING NNW 15 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
20N175E 19S171E. WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER N
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 720 NM OF CENTER N
SEMICIRCLE…120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT WITHIN 360 N
OF CENTER N AND NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE BOUNDED
BY 30N160E 30N173W 24N176W 21N172E 28N160E 30N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 30N TO 22N BETWEEN 175E AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N174E 1003 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
25N175E. WINDS 30 TO 45 KT WITHIN 60 NM AND 420 NM OF CENTER NE
QUADRANT…AND 60 NM AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS 520 NM NW SEMICIRCLE…240 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM
OF CENTER N SEMICIRCLE…120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE BOUNDED BY 30N160E 30N175W 24N177E 20N170E 24N160E
30N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 30N169E 999 MB. WINDS 30 TO 45 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER S SEMICIRCLE.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE BOUNDED BY 30N165E 30N179W 25N173E
25N165E 30N165E.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROUGH 08N140W 06N145W.

.ITCZ 06N145W 05N160W 08N171W 05N174E 04N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ W OF 171W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ E OF 171W.

.WINDS NE 20 TO 30 KT SE OF LINE 28N140W 20N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS NE TO E 20 TO 30 KT E OF LINE 28N145W TO
20N153W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS NE TO SE 20 TO 30 KT FROM 26N TO 21N E
OF 148W.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 15N TO 05N BETWEEN 160 AND 152W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 02N E OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 04N E OF 160W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSMTS N OF 23N W OF 170E.

$$
.HONOLULU FORECASTER.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnam/ Laos/ China: Severe Tropical Storm TALAS 06W 161200Z nr 18.5N 107.2E, moving WNW 12kt (JMA) – Published 16 Jul 2017 1410z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm TALAS 06W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 14 FEET (JTWC)

STS 1704 (Talas)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 16 July 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 16 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N18°30′ (18.5°)
E107°10′ (107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°40′ (18.7°)
E104°20′ (104.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°25′ (19.4°)
E100°55′ (100.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

 

hko_logo

Tropical Storm TALAS
at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Position: 18.4 N, 107.8 E (about 790 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 85 km/h
Talas will move across Beibu Wan today, and then move into the inland areas of Indo-China and dissipate gradually.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 16 July 2017

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 17 July 2017 19.3 N 101.6 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
17:00 HKT 18 July 2017 20.5 N 96.7 E Low Pressure Area 25 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warning for shipping issued eight times a day at 0:30, 3:30, 6:30, 9:30, 12:30, 15:30, 18:30 and 21:30 HKT, about one and a half hours after the time of observation. The analysed positions incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based provisional positions given in the hourly bulletins for public. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 06W (Talas) Warning #04
Issued at 16/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALAS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 18.1N 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 108.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 18.6N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 19.2N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 20.0N 100.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 107.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM NORTH OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 16 Jul, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALAS is currently located near 18.5 N 107.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). TALAS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Laos
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1704 TALAS (1704) 990 HPA
AT 18.5N 107.2E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 18.7N 104.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 19.4N 100.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

hko_logo

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Bulletin issued at 18:30 HKT 16/Jul/2017

Tropical Cyclone WarningAt 160900 UTC, Tropical Storm Talas (1704) with central pressure 988 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of one eight point four degrees north (18.4 N) one zero seven point eight degrees east (107.8 E) and is forecast to move west or west-northwest at about 14 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 45 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 45 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 240 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 170900 UTC
One nine point three degrees north (19.3 N)
One zero one point six degrees east (101.6 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 180900 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/ US/ East Pacific/ Hurricane Eugene: 101000Z position nr 18.2N 116.7W, NW 08 kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Eugene (05E)

…EUGENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATERS…
…HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…(NHC FL)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 31 FEET. (JTWC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 05E (Eugene) Warning #11
Issued at 10/1000Z

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 17.7N 116.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 116.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 19.3N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 20.7N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 22.1N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 23.3N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 25.5N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 27.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 28.5N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 116.7W.
HURRICANE 05E (EUGENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 901 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.//
NNNN

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 100848
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eugene Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017

…EUGENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATERS…
…HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.1N 116.5W
ABOUT 540 MI…870 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eugene was located
near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 116.5 West. Eugene is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours as Eugene moves over colder water. Eugene is expected
to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Eugene are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and will spread northward to
portions of southern California by tonight and Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Weather Underground

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0831

000
FZPN03 KNHC 100929
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC MON JUL 10 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUL 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED JUL 12.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE EUGENE NEAR 18.1N 116.5W 976 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 10
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT…80 NM SE QUADRANT…60 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE…135
NM SW QUADRANT AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 109W AND 122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EUGENE NEAR 20.7N 118.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT…70 NM SE QUADRANT…50 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 210 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 30
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 112W AND 130W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SE AND S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EUGENE NEAR 23.3N 120.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO
30N BETWEEN 113W AND 126W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SE AND S TO SW SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EUGENE NEAR 25.5N
122.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EUGENE NEAR 27.5N
124.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EUGENE NEAR 28.5N
125.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 KT GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 21N BETWEEN 125W AND 136W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

.S OF 00N W OF 90W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN S TO SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S E OF 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0830 UTC MON JUL 10…

.HURRICANE EUGENE…SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM
OF CENTER.

.LOW PRES NEAR 13N103W…SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 102W AND 105W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 13N95W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR
12N103W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N120W TO 10N129W TO 10N136W. ITCZ
FROM 10N136W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
03N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 92W.

$$
.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Puerto Rico/ Dominican Republic/ Caribbean: Tropical Depression FOUR: 07/0900Z nr 15.0N 48.8W, moving WNW 19 kt (NHC FL) – Published 07 Jul 2017 0930Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Four

…DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC…

National Hurricane Center (FL)

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image
Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands Radar

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070841
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017
500 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017

…DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.0N 48.8W
ABOUT 835 MI…1340 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.86 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 48.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, with weakening expected
to begin by late tonight. The depression is forecast to degenerate
into a remnant low or tropical wave by Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0841

WTNT24 KNHC 070841
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017
0900 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.8W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.8W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 47.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.8N 51.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.1N 55.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.6N 58.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.1N 61.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.8N 67.7W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 48.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W) 04/1000Z nr 34.1N 137.1E, moving E 65 km/h (36 kt) (JMA) – Updated 04 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W)

JAPAN beware!

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

 

STS 1703 (Nanmadol)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 4 July 2017

<Analysis at 10 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°05′ (34.1°)
E137°05′ (137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Estimate for 11 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°10′ (34.2°)
E137°50′ (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°40′ (35.7°)
E144°00′ (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°20′ (37.3°)
E151°35′ (151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°30′ (44.5°)
E171°10′ (171.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 85 km/h (45 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

===============================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 05W (Nanmadol) Warning #10
Issued at 04/0900Z

 

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 04/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z — NEAR 33.6N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 075 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 134.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 35.3N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 33 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 36.9N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 136.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 34
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NANMADOL is currently located near 33.6 N 134.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). NANMADOL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

News Report

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 142E
46N 150E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N 160E 30N 140E 35N
140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 57N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 51N 164E NORTH 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 17N 133E NW 15 KT.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 43N 148E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 122E TO 36N 124E 37N 131E 39N 140E 37N 146E
37N 151E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA AT 33.6N 134.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 040900

WTJP31 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA
AT 34.1N 136.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 36 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 35.7N 144.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 37.3N 151.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.