Vietnam/ South China Sea: Tropical Storm Haikui 111200Z 17.8N 115.6E, moving W Slow 998 hPa (JMA) – Updated 11 Nov 2017 1515z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Haikui 30W

( TS Salome in Philippines)

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1724-002

TS 1724 (Haikui)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 11 November 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 11 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N17°50′ (17.8°)
E115°35′ (115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 220 km (120 NM)
SE 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N17°30′ (17.5°)
E112°30′ (112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°00′ (16.0°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°50′ (14.8°)
E108°00′ (108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slow
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

Philippines

PAGASA-DOST

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #12-FINAL
FOR:Tropical Storm Salome
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

ISSUED AT:5:00 AM, 11 November 2017 (PH Time)

TROPICAL STORM “SALOME” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

  • Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 200 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.
PAGASA Track Satellite Image
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “SALOME” was estimated based on all available data at 385 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.6 °N, 116.8 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 20 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 775 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.9°N, 113.1°E)
  • 48 Hour(Monday morning):820 km North Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.6°N, 110.8°E)
  • 72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 915 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.0°N, 108.3°E)
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final warning for this weather disturbance.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201730w2201730w_02

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17111121

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 111200

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1724 HAIKUI (1724) 998 HPA
AT 17.8N 115.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 17.5N 112.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 16.0N 109.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 14.8N 108.0E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST JAPAN November 11 2017 – 14:28:37 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST HONG KONG CHINA November 11 2017 – 14:15:59 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST CHINA November 11 2017 – 14:05:54 UTC

 

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 100600

TTT GALE WARNING 7

AT 0600 10 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM {HAIKUI} (1724) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FIVE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110600 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AT 120600 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 130600 ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Saola 27W 291400Z nr 29.4N 130.2E, moving NE 55kt JMA – Updated 29 Oct 2017 1606z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Saola 27W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

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JMA is the lead agency in this area

1722-002

998

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

STS 1722 (Saola)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 29 October 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 29 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°30′ (36.5°)
E143°00′ (143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 100 km/h (55 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 170 km (90 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 500 km (270 NM)
NW 390 km (210 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 29 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N37°30′ (37.5°)
E144°25′ (144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 100 km/h (55 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 170 km (90 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 500 km (270 NM)
NW 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°55′ (44.9°)
E149°00′ (149.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 110 km/h (60 kt)
Central pressure 952 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area SE 300 km (160 NM)
NW 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N49°10′ (49.2°)
E153°05′ (153.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area SE 480 km (260 NM)
NW 310 km (170 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated27

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 27W (Saola) Warning #40 Final Warning
Issued at 29/1500Z

wp27174

 

27w_291200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 34.4N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 065 DEGREES AT 42 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.4N 140.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 40.1N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 46 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 47.2N 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 142.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
42 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 27W IS ASSESSED AS AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BUT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STRONG-GALE
TO STORM-FORCE WINDS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28
FEET.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SAOLA is currently located near 34.4 N 140.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). SAOLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Petropavloski-Kamchatskiy (53.2 N, 158.7 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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17102921

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 291200

WTJP21 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1722 SAOLA (1722) 985 HPA
AT 34.8N 141.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 45 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 44.9N 149.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
952 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 49.2N 153.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 291200

WWJP25 RJTD 291200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 40N 144E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 60N 149E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 60N 149E TO 59N 154E 57N 154E.
WARM FRONT FROM 57N 154E TO 55N 156E 52N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 57N 154E TO 55N 150E 48N 146E 42N 139E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN WESTERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
YELLOW SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST
CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 27N 120E 20N 125E 17N 120E 18N 109E 21N 110E 27N
120E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 55N 175E 55N 180E 33N 180E 34N 175E 55N 175E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 42N 141E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 168E 40N 163E 37N 150E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 06N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 138E NNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 40N 164E EAST 20 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 142E TO 36N 146E 32N 149E.
COLD FRONT FROM 31N 140E TO 28N 138E 26N 134E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1722 SAOLA (1722) 985 HPA AT 34.8N 141.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Cuba/ Bahamas/ US (FL): Tropical Storm Philippe 282100Z near 23.0N 82.6W, moving N ~24.8kt NHC – Published 28 Oct 2017 2157z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Philippe

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE…
…HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA…NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

National Hurricane Center FL

205806_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

205806_earliest_reasonable_toa_34205806wpcqpf_sm

000
WTNT33 KNHC 282035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE…
…HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Philippe is moving
toward the north near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast
by early Sunday morning. A faster motion toward the northeast is
expected on Sunday and continuing into Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move off of the northern coast
of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida this evening, and move
across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A wind gust of 37
mph (59 km/h) was recently reported at Key West International
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across portions
of South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 28 Oct, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE is currently located near 23.0 N 82.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). PHILIPPE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cuba
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the United States
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    the Bahamas
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Canada
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nassau (25.1 N, 77.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201718n201718n_0

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METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2035

WTNT23 KNHC 282035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017
2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD… LA HABANA… CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA… MATANZAS… CIENFUEGOS… AND VILLA CLARA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 82.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.5N 75.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 36.6N 70.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 82.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Okinawa/ Japan/ South Korea/ Russia/ West Pacific: SUPER TYPHOON LAN 25W 211500Z position nr 24.7N 132.9E, moving NNE 16kt (JTWC) – Updated 21 Oct 2017 1612z (GMT/UTC)

SUPER TYPHOON LAN (25W)

(=CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 25W (Lan) Warning #25
Issued at 21/1500Z

wp25174

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 23.8N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 132.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 27.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
415 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 31.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
430 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 36.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 400 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
420 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 39 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 42.0N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
490 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 132.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

logo

1721-004

993

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1721 (Lan)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 21 October 2017

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 21 October>
Scale Very large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E132°55′ (132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 1100 km (600 NM)
E 950 km (500 NM)
<Estimate for 16 UTC, 21 October>
Scale Very large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E133°00′ (133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 1100 km (600 NM)
E 950 km (500 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area SE 310 km (170 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E133°55′ (133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N30°40′ (30.7°)
E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°55′ (32.9°)
E136°35′ (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

NOAA

rb_lalo-animated22

TROPICAL STORM (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at21 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon LAN is currently located near 23.8 N 132.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). LAN is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201725w4201725w_04

Other

 

wp201725_5day6

wp201725_sat3

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo17102121

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA
AT 24.5N 132.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 28.5N 133.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 32.9N 136.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 54N 138E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 138E TO 53N 141E 52N 142E.
WARM FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 144E 46N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 142E 44N 138E 41N 130E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 129E 30N 130E 28N 125E 20N 120E 23N 117E 26N
120E 32N 122E 35N 129E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 11.6N 148.3E MARIANAS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 42N 143E 47N 152E 50N 155E 40N 155E 34N 180E 29N 180E 29N
170E 29N 155E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 47N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 130E TO 32N 134E 34N 140E 36N 146E 35N 152E
34N 157E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA AT 23.8N 132.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ Russia: Tropical Storm Talim 20W 17/1500Z update from JTWC and others – Updated 17 Sep 2017 1547z (GMT/UTC)

 Tropical Storm Talim 20W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z

 

 

wp2017 TALIM JTWC 17

20W_171200sair TALIM 17

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

1718-00 TALIM JMA 17

JP WARNING

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

rb_lalo-animated3

STS 1718 (Talim)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E135°40′ (135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N35°40′ (35.7°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 190 km (100 NM)
NW 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N40°40′ (40.7°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area NE 410 km (220 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°50′ (45.8°)
E142°35′ (142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 370 km (200 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720W TALIM TSR1 17

201720W_0 TALIM TSR2 17

Russia

17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.

17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).

16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.

16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.

“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.

Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

JP MARITIME 17

JP WX MAP 17

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Lee 16/1500Z 112.5N 33.1W, moving W ~10.2kt NHC FL – Published 16 Sep 2017 1540z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Lee

DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE – NHC FL

144929_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind LEE NHC

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.5N 33.1W
ABOUT 655 MI…1055 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 33.1 West. Lee is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to are near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

Other

at201714_5day LEEat201714_sat LEE

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 LEE

METAREA2 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1515

WONT50 LFPW 161515
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 384, SATURDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2017 AT 1510 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 16 AT 12 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM LEE 1007 655 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 12.5N 33.1W AT 16/15 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT, EXPECTED
12.5N 33.1W AT 17/00 UTC, THEN 12.4N 34.1W AT 17/12 UTC.

WEST OF SIERRA LEONE.
CONTINUING TO 17/15 UTC AT LEAST.
CYCLONIC INCREASING 8 OR 9. SEVERE GUSTS.

BT

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.
*

 

 

 

 

Mexico: Hurricane NORMA 17E 16/1200Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 16 Sep 2017 1305z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE NORMA 17E

HURRICANE NORMA REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

National Hurricane Center (FL)

113432_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind NHC NORMA

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 161129
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
600 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

…HURRICANE NORMA REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Baja California Peninsula should
monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Norma has been
nearly stationary, but a slow northward motion should begin later
today and continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Norma will begin affecting portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur later
today and continue into early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early Sunday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late Sunday or early Monday.

RAINFALL: Norma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts in excess of 20
inches possible. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening
flash floods.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Other

ep201717_5day NORMA WUNDep201717_sat NORMA WUND

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 EP 15 MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1439

WTPZ22 KNHC 160848 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172017
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO TODOS SANTOS…AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.7N 110.3W

000
FZPN03 KNHC 160945
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT SEP 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN SEP 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON SEP 18.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 19.0N 110.2W 987 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 16
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 0 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS
80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND
70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 20.4N 110.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 S SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180
NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 103W AND 114W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORMA NEAR 22.5N 111.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS
TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA
OVER EAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS FROM 16N TO 26N
E OF 116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 23.5N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORMA NEAR 24.0N 113.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA NEAR 24.5N 112.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 15.8N 126.0W 1007 MB AT 0900
UTC SEP 16 MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
TO 18N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 16.1N
126.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 90
NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 17.0N
126.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 121W AND 129W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 17.7N
126.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E NEAR 18.0N
128.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FIFTEEN-E NEAR
17.0N 130.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16…

.HURRICANE NORMA…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
180 NM E SEMICIRCLE…AND WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM N QUADRANT. SCATTERED MDOERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM TO 180
NM SW QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N101W TO 08N108W…RESUMING FROM
13N129W…TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N134W 1011 MB…TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 360 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 98W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
13N TO 18N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W…AND WITHIN 90 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF 1011 MB LOW PRES.

$$

.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ China/ Vietnam: Tropical Storm Pakhar 16W 260900Z position nr 18.7N 117.5E, moving WNW 16kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Aug 2017 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Pakhar 16W

#JolinaPh in Philippines

⚠️  Philippines and China beware! Vietnam be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

wp201716_5day Pakhar wund

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201716_sat Pakhar wund

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 16W (Pakhar) Warning #08
Issued at 26/0900Z

wp1617 Pakhar jtwc 26

16W_260600sams 26

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 18.3N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 118.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 19.8N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 21.2N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 21.9N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 22.3N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 22.7N 101.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 117.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z,
270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 26 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PAKHAR is currently located near 18.3 N 118.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). PAKHAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201716W tsr1 26 p

(Image: TSR)

201716W_0 tsr2 26

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

17082615 jma map26

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 260600

WTJP22 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1714 PAKHAR (1714) 994 HPA
AT 18.0N 118.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 20.0N 114.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 21.4N 112.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 23.0N 106.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 22.8N 102.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Storm Franklin – ⚠️ Hurricane Warning for MX coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL) – Published 09 Aug 2017 1040z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco (NHC FL)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen (NHC FL)
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo (NHC FL)

Traducción al español (haga clic aquí)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

…FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN is currently located near 20.4 N 92.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). FRANKLIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Coatzacoalcos (18.2 N, 94.4 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

Landfall #2 Coming Up: Franklin Enters Bay of Campeche (Category 6 website)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0837

WTNT22 KNHC 090837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF RIO PANUCO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO BARRA DEL TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

United States (FL): Tropical Storm EMILY 311800Z nr 27.6N 82.2W, moving E at 10 mph (NHC FL) – Published 31 Jul 2017 1825z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm EMILY

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

National Hurricane Center (FL)

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311748
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

…EMILY LOCATED INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SW OF BARTOW FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River
southward to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.2 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will
continue to move farther inland over the west-central Florida
peninsula this afternoon, and move across central Florida through
tonight. Emily is forecast to move offshore of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
while it moves across the Florida peninsula this afternoon and
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km),
mainly southeast through south of the center. A wind gust to 38 mph
was recently observed in Punta Gorda, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts
possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1434

WTNT21 KNHC 311434
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017
1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 82.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

China/ Taiwan: Tropical Storm Haitang 302100Z position nr 24.8N 119.7E, moving NNW 13kt (JTWC) – Updated 30 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Haitang 12W

(Huaning in Philippines – Use hashtag )

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

wp201712_5day Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201712_sat_anim Tropical Storm Haitang WUND 30

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 12W (Haitang) Warning #11
Issued at 30/2100Z

 

wp1217 Haitang JTWC 30

 

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 24.2N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 120.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 26.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 28.5N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 119.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z,
310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 07W (NORU)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1710-00 JMA 00 Haitang

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TS 1710 (Haitang)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 30 July 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 30 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E120°20′ (120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 440 km (240 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°05′ (29.1°)
E116°10′ (116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jul, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAITANG is currently located near 24.2 N 120.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). HAITANG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201712W Haitang TSR1 30

(Image: TSR)

201712W_0 Haitang TSR2 30

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn 30

JMA map 30

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 301800

WTJP22 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1710 HAITANG (1710) 990 HPA
AT 24.7N 120.3E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 28.2N 117.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 29.1N 116.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ China: Typhoon Nesat 11W 290900Z 23.9°N 122.4°E, moving NNW 20 km/h (11 kt) (JMA)- Updated 29 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Nesat 11W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Taiwan, Ishigaki Island, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) and China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z  IS 32 FEET- JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1709 (Nesat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 29 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°55′ (23.9°)
E122°25′ (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 10 UTC, 29 July>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°05′ (24.1°)
E122°20′ (122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 390 km (210 NM)
N 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N24°50′ (24.8°)
E119°30′ (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 140 km (75 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°05′ (25.1°)
E118°10′ (118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E117°35′ (117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 11W (Nesat) Warning #14
Issued at 29/0900Z

 

 

WTPN34 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 23.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 122.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 24.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 25.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 27.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 31.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 122.2E.
TYPHOON 11W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE)WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT is currently located near 23.3 N 122.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NESAT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NESAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

(Image: JMA)

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 290900

WTJP34 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1709 NESAT (1709) 960 HPA
AT 23.9N 122.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 24.8N 119.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 25.1N 118.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnam/ Laos/ Thailand: Tropical Storm SONCA 08W 25/0900Z nr 17.1°N 107.0°E, moving W 09 knots (CMA) – Published 25 Jul 2017 1257z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm SONCA 08W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

Typhoon Message

20170725 17:17


National Meteorological Center No.306
Analysis Time: Jul. 25th 09 UTC
Name of TC: SONCA
Num. of TC: 1708
Current Location: 17.1°N 107.0°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 20m/s(72km/h)
Central Pressure: 996hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 90km SE 90km SW 90km NW 90km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs SONCA will moving W at speed of 15km/h

 

 

TS 1708 (Sonca)
Issued at 10:10 UTC, 25 July 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 25 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N16°55′ (16.9°)
E106°55′ (106.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 25 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E104°55′ (104.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 26 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N17°00′ (17.0°)
E102°50′ (102.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 08W (Sonca) Warning #18 Final Warning
Issued at 25/0900Z

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (SONCA) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 17.0N 107.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 107.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 17.1N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 17.0N 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 106.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM NORTHWEST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 25 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SONCA is currently located near 17.0 N 107.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). SONCA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Laos
        probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

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MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

WWJP25 RJTD 250600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 147E 50N 152E 58N 152E 58N 172E 52N 170E 40N
151E 40N 147E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 139E 42N 141E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 41N 180E 38N 165E 38N 150E 33N 142E 33N
139E 35N 139E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 27N 139E NE SLOWLY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 49N 141E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 55N 149E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 13N 129E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 24N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 47N 179E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 120E TO 37N 129E 37N 136E 38N 140E 39N 144E
46N 152E 50N 155E 52N 162E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1705 NORU (1705) 970 HPA AT 25.9N 157.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1706 KULAP (1706) 1002 HPA AT 32.8N 155.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1708 SONCA (1708) 994 HPA AT 17.1N 107.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 250600

WTJP23 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1708 SONCA (1708) 994 HPA
AT 17.1N 107.7E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 17.2N 105.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 17.2N 103.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Hawaii/ Central Pacific: Tropical Storm Fernanda (06E) 202100Z near 18.2N 140.4W, moving W 11 knots (NHC) – Updated 20 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda (06E)

…FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC….(NHC)

Hawaii be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET (JTWC)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 202035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

…FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.2N 140.4W
ABOUT 965 MI…1555 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 140.4 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general motion
toward the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Fernanda is expected to become a tropical depression
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO
header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 06E (Fernanda) Warning #35
Issued at 20/1600Z

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 035
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 18.1N 138.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 138.7W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 18.6N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 19.0N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 19.5N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 20.1N 145.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 21.5N 149.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.5N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 24.0N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 139.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 936 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: RSMC Miami)


METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2034

WTPZ21 KNHC 202034 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062017
2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 139.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 140.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

 

================================================================================

FZPN02 KWBC 201725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 177W AND 175E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 180W AND 170E WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN
169E AND 178W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 30N168E 999 MB. FROM 30N TO 34N
BETWEEN 164E AND 172E WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 163E AND 172E WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 53.92N 168.03W IS IN A STATE OF UNREST.
MARINERS TRAVELING IN THE VICINITY OF BOGOSLOF VOLCANO ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION. IF MARINERS ENCOUNTER ANY VOLCANIC
ASH…REPORT THE OBSERVATION TO THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER BY
CALLING 301-683-1520.

.FROM 33N TO 38N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 43N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.LOW 55N149W 1002 MB DRIFTING SE. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 57N140W TO
56N146W TO 50N141W TO 47N140W TO 44N142W. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300
NM N QUADRANT…ALSO WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E OF FRONT…AND FROM
43N TO 48N BETWEEN 155W AND 165W…ALSO FROM 53N TO 58N BETWEEN
161W AND 166W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW FORMED NEAR
51N144W 1001 MB. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 53N157W TO 56N150W TO
56N144W TO 53N140W TO 50N133W TO 47NB131W. WITHIN 180 NM NW…N
AND NE OF FRONT…ALSO FROM 41N TO 50N BETWEEN 136W AND 147W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N141W 1002 MB. FROM 49N TO 54N BETWEEN
133W AND 146W…AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM 55N147W TO
55N134W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.S OF 33N W OF 165E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED W OF AREA.

.FROM 45N TO 50N BETWEEN 175W AND 175E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 47N164W 1012 MB. FROM 42N TO 45N
BETWEEN 160W AND 173W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N155W 1011 MB. FORECAST CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 48N
BETWEEN 142W AND 164W AND W OF A LINE FROM 61N170W TO 50N179W TO
46N170W TO 44N170W TO 40N176W TO 37N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 155W AND
164W…ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 153W AND 158W…AND W OF A
LINE FROM 60N175W TO 40N174E TO 38N160E…ALSO FROM 40N TO 43N
BETWEEN 175W AND 174E…ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 153W AND
158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 45N BETWEEN 142W AND
156W…ALSO FROM 50N TO 53N BETWEEN 152W AND 159E…AND W OF A
LINE FROM 58N180W TO 46N176E TO 41N163E.

.HIGH 41N180W 1033 MB MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N173E 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N169E 1027 MB.

.HIGH 58N179W 1018 MB MOVING SW 10 KT…THEN TURNING E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 56N178E 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 53N176W 1023 MB.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N136W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N137W 1025 MB.

.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUL 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.1N 115.4W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL
20 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.7N 118.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120NM NW AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 15.4N 122.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE…60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW AND
120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 16.0N 127.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 16.3N 131.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 17.0N 135.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 18.2N 139.2W 995 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUL 20 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE
QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT…50 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE…120
NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF LINE
FROM 26N134W TO 19N134W TO 13N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA W OF AREA NEAR 19.0N
142.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE…50 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 139W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF LINE FROM 25N137W TO
16N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA W OF AREA
NEAR 20.1N 145.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 21.5N
149.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 22.5N
154.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 24.0N
160.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 13.4N 123.1W 1009 MB AT 1500
UTC JUL 20 MOVING WSW OR 245 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 180NM SE AND 60 NM NW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 12.1N 124.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EIGHT-E NEAR 11.6N
125.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 150 NM
SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N104W 1010 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 450 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
13N109W 1009 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N112W 1008 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF
LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO
15N95.5W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 86.5W AND 89W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN E AND SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 89W AND
92W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 FT IN E AND SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 88.5W…INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC THU JUL 20…

.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NE
QUADRANT WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM GREG…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER…EXCEPT NW QUADRANT.

.TROPICAL WAVE 06N TO 19N ALONG 104W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1010
MB NEAR 12N104W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO
12N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB
NEAR 07N86W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 11N104W. SCATTERED TO
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W
AND 94W.

.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20 2017.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 21 2017.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22 2017.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA JUST E OF AREA 18.2N 139.2W AT 20/1500Z
MOVING W 08 KT. MAX WINDS 55 KT G 65 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER
WITHIN 70 NM NW QUADRANT…50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT…90 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT ELSEWHERE E OF LINE 25N145W 22N150W 16N147W 13N142W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA 19.0N 142.4W. MAX
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER WITHIN 50 NM NE
QUADRANT…40 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…150 NM SW QUADRANT…210 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY 26N140W 14N140W 12N145W
21N153W 24N152W 26N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 20.1N 145.8W.
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT…90 NM
S SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY
25N145W 23N140W 18N145W 16N155W 22N153W 25N145W.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 21.5N 149.5W.
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR OUTLOOK POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 22.5 154.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.
.120 HOUR OUTLOOK POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 24.0N 160.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 24N178E 1008 MB MOVING NNW 15 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
20N175E 19S171E. WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER N
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 720 NM OF CENTER N
SEMICIRCLE…120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT WITHIN 360 N
OF CENTER N AND NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE BOUNDED
BY 30N160E 30N173W 24N176W 21N172E 28N160E 30N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 30N TO 22N BETWEEN 175E AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N174E 1003 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
25N175E. WINDS 30 TO 45 KT WITHIN 60 NM AND 420 NM OF CENTER NE
QUADRANT…AND 60 NM AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS 520 NM NW SEMICIRCLE…240 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM
OF CENTER N SEMICIRCLE…120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE BOUNDED BY 30N160E 30N175W 24N177E 20N170E 24N160E
30N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 30N169E 999 MB. WINDS 30 TO 45 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER S SEMICIRCLE.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE BOUNDED BY 30N165E 30N179W 25N173E
25N165E 30N165E.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROUGH 08N140W 06N145W.

.ITCZ 06N145W 05N160W 08N171W 05N174E 04N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ W OF 171W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ E OF 171W.

.WINDS NE 20 TO 30 KT SE OF LINE 28N140W 20N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS NE TO E 20 TO 30 KT E OF LINE 28N145W TO
20N153W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS NE TO SE 20 TO 30 KT FROM 26N TO 21N E
OF 148W.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 15N TO 05N BETWEEN 160 AND 152W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 02N E OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 04N E OF 160W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSMTS N OF 23N W OF 170E.

$$
.HONOLULU FORECASTER.=

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W) 04/1000Z nr 34.1N 137.1E, moving E 65 km/h (36 kt) (JMA) – Updated 04 Jul 2017 1130z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (1703, 05W)

JAPAN beware!

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

 

STS 1703 (Nanmadol)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 4 July 2017

<Analysis at 10 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°05′ (34.1°)
E137°05′ (137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Estimate for 11 UTC, 4 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N34°10′ (34.2°)
E137°50′ (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65 km/h (36 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°40′ (35.7°)
E144°00′ (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°20′ (37.3°)
E151°35′ (151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (32 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°30′ (44.5°)
E171°10′ (171.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 85 km/h (45 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

===============================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 05W (Nanmadol) Warning #10
Issued at 04/0900Z

 

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 04/0900Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z — NEAR 33.6N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 075 DEGREES AT 34 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 134.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 35.3N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 33 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 36.9N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 136.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 34
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Jul, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NANMADOL is currently located near 33.6 N 134.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). NANMADOL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

News Report

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 142E
46N 150E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N 160E 30N 140E 35N
140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 57N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 51N 164E NORTH 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 17N 133E NW 15 KT.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 43N 148E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 122E TO 36N 124E 37N 131E 39N 140E 37N 146E
37N 151E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA AT 33.6N 134.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 040900

WTJP31 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1703 NANMADOL (1703) 992 HPA
AT 34.1N 136.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 36 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 35.7N 144.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 37.3N 151.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm Dora (04E) 25/1500Z nr 15.0N 101.8W, moving WNW 10 kt (NHC FL) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1608z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Dora 04E

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 251432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

…DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI…295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI…520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.8 West. Dora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel
to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Dora could become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan
through Monday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04E (Dora) Warning #02
Issued at 25/1000Z

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 14.5N 100.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 100.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 15.5N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 16.4N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 17.5N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 18.4N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 19.5N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 20.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 101.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1422 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND
261000Z.//
NNNN

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 251554
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 27.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 15.0N 101.8W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN
25 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 16.8N 105.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT…40 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 18.6N 108.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER…WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 19.6N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 20.3N 115.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DORA NEAR 20.0N
118.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 24N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S E OF 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUN 25…

.TROPICAL STORM DORA…NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF DORA. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W
AND 105W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 81W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N84W TO 12N94W, IT THEN RESUMES AT 10N107W
TO 07N131W. ITCZ FROM 07N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 126W AND 129W.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 20/1200Z nr 25.4N 90.3W, moving NW 08 kt (NHC FL) – Published 20 Jun 2017 1218z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AL03)

(Future TS Cindy)

A Tropical Storm Warning for…Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

…DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.4N 90.3W
ABOUT 265 MI…430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Cameron to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected
Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54
inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL03 is currently located near 24.8 N 90.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL03 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/1200 UTC, is near 11.1N
63.6W, or about 17 nm to the ENE of La Isla de Margarita of
Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean
Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/1200 UTC,
is near 25.4N 90.3W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N
between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas
and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala
into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in
the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the
NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most
probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and
46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to
06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W.

…DISCUSSION…

…THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD…

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KATP.

MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA…

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional
MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake
Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan
area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker
and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions,
from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

…THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through
Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

…HISPANIOLA…

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted
trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still
are possible across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough.
Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two,
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will
consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with
an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow.
Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during
day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

…THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are
possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W
and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Depression 03E forms to the S of Mexico, bringing locally heavy rains – Published 11 Jun 2017 2150z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 03E

Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of southeastern Mexico from Boca De Pijijiapan to Punta
Maldonado.

 Mexico and Guatemala be aware

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 112033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO…
…BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.5N 95.0W
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of southeastern Mexico from Boca De Pijijiapan to Punta
Maldonado.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 95.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone will be near the
coast of Mexico in the warning area by Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across southern Guatemala and the
Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero, with maximum
totals of 20 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within portions of the warning area on Monday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 11 Jun, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 03E is currently located near 14.5 N 95.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). 03E is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Puerto Angel (15.8 N, 96.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FZNT01 KWBC 111540
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC SUN JUN 11 2017

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

ATLANTIC ICEBERG ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK PRODUCTS…COURTESY OF
THE U.S. COAST GUARD INTERNATIONAL ICE PATROL…CAN BE FOUND
ON THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WEB PAGE AT
http://WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML(LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 11
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 12
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 13

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 54N46W 985 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM SW AND S
QUADRANTS AND BETWEEN 180 NM AND 360 NM N QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO
45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 44N
TO 61N E OF 54W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N40W 990 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM
55N TO 61N E OF 57W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED BY LOW 54N33W DESCRIBED BELOW.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N60W 981 MB. OVER ICE FREE FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 780 MN S QUADRANT AND 180 NM NE AND E QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 53N51W 986
MB WITH A FRONT FROM CENTER TO 50N46W TO 42N59W. WITHIN 360 NM
SW AND S QUADRANTS AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E AND S OF THE
FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 54N33W 978 MB.
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 39N TO 61N E OF 47W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 17 FT…HIGHEST NEAR 46N35W.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS N OF 61N BETWEEN 48W AND 58W AREA
OF S TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N64W 1000 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 360 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 60N TO 66N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W COAST
OF GREENLAND AREA OF N TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 55N TO 59N E OF 52W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 53N BETWEEN 42W AND
56W…FROM 53N TO 65N W OF 56W…AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 42N69W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 56N TO 64N W OF 59W…AND FROM
40N TO 50N BETWEEN 57W AND 72W.

.HIGH 32N56W 1026 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 32N55W 1024 MB.

.HIGH 35N68W 1025 MB MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N69W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 32N47W 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 11.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 12.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 13.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N35W TO LOW PRES 27N48W 1018 MB
WITH TROUGH SW TO 21N55W. WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 31N45W TO
31N35W TO 28N35W TO 28N49W TO 31N35W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC 06 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W…INCLUDING
APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE…E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W…INCLUDING
APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE…E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 15N79W TO 15N73W TO 11N71W TO
11N77W TO 15N79W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA…NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 14N80W TO 15N74W TO
11N74W TO 11N80W TO 14N80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 14N80W TO 13N70W TO
11N71W TO 12N81W TO 14N80W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA…
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN S OF 19N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS…E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N W OF 85W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS…E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH FROM 28N83W TO 27N90W. S OF TROUGH SE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 25.5N82W TO 26N89W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DIFFUSE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST S OF 22.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea: Tropical Storm Merbok (1702, 04W) 11/1500Z nr 18.8N 116.0E, moving NNW 13kt (JMA) – Published 11 Jun 2017 1900z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Merbok (1702, 04W)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

TS 1702 (Merbok)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 11 June 2017
<Analysis at 15 UTC, 11 June>
Scale

Intensity

Center position
N18°50′ (18.8°)

E116°00′ (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement
NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure
1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area
ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity

Center position of probability circle
N20°40′ (20.7°)

E115°10′ (115.2°)
Direction and speed of movement
NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure
1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle
70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity

Center position of probability circle
N22°25′ (22.4°)

E114°50′ (114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement
N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure
998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle
90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 June>
Intensity

TD
Center position of probability circle
N25°10′ (25.2°)

E118°20′ (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement
NE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure
1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle
280 km (150 NM)

=================================================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04W (Merbok) Warning #03
Issued at 11/1500Z

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 18.2N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 116.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 20.2N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 22.0N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 23.6N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 25.1N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 26.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 27.9N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 29.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 116.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

================================================================================

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 11 Jun, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MERBOK is currently located near 18.2 N 116.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). MERBOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 


METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1702 MERBOK (1702) 1002 HPA
AT 18.1N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 20.2N 115.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 22.1N 115.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 25.2N 118.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Depression Beatriz 02E 021000Z nr 16.6N 96.2W, moving NNE about 05kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 Jun 2017 1318z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Beatriz (02E)

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS (AND MUDSLIDES) POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS…

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 02E (Beatriz) Warning #08
Issued at 02/1000Z

ep0217 jtwc 02

02E_020600sair 02

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z — NEAR 16.2N 96.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 96.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 17.3N 95.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 96.2W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1497 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z.
//
NNNN

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

084041_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind 02

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 020835
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beatriz Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF
OAXACA DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.5N 96.3W
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM NNE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beatriz
was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 96.3 West. Beatriz
is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast
track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move farther inland over
the state of Oaxaca through the day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Beatriz is expected to dissipate later
today over the mountains of southeastern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Beatriz is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the Mexican state of Oaxaca
with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches possible. This rainfall
is likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Lighter amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range are possible across the
southern portion of the Mexican state of Veracruz.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 2 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BEATRIZ is currently located near 16.5 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). BEATRIZ is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oaxaca (17.1 N, 96.7 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
    Puerto Angel (15.8 N, 96.5 W)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

DBSK8-PVYAAQ_pS

(Image: DoctorAdvice4u.com at 02/0253 UTC)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 02

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0900 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

WTPZ22 KNHC 020834
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022017
0900 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 96.3W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 96.3W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 95.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

000
FZPN03 KNHC 020926 CCA
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC FRI JUN 02 2017

CORRECTED PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR ITCZ

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI JUN 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUN 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUN 04.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ INLAND NEAR 16.5N 96.3W 1007 MB AT
0900 UTC JUN 02 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BEATRIZ NEAR 17.3N
95.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF LINE FROM 03.4S99W TO 01S106W TO 00N116W TO 02S120W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S107W TO 01S116W TO 01S120W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S102W TO 02S106W TO 00N115W
TO 01S120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC FRI JUN 02…

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ…NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED
STRONG N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W.

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N85W TO 13N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N85W TO
13N89W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N100W TO 08N113W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
08N113W TO 08N127W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
07N TO 11N W OF 132W.

$$
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Myanmar/ Bangladesh/ India: Tropical Cyclone MORA 02B 29/0900Z position near 18.3N 91.5E, moving NNE 08 kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 May 20017 1145z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm/Tropical Cyclone Mora

….INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (Bangladesh Met)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 02B (Mora) Warning #07
Issued at 29/0900Z

WTIO31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 17.7N 91.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 91.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 20.0N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 22.8N 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.7N 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 91.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 290400Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE USING A 290316Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH INDICATES THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH ONLY
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE MORA JOGGED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT A GENERAL
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IN APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH IN AROUND 24 HOURS.
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL, WITH THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
NNNN

==========================================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘MORA’ ADVISORY NO. SIX ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 29TH MAY 2017 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH MAY 2017
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, 29TH MAY, 2017 OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.8ºN AND LONGITUDE 91.4ºE, ABOUT 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA(42807) AND 500 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG(41978). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN LONGITUDE 91.0ºE AND 92.0ºE NEAR CHITTAGONG AROUND 30TH MAY 2017 FORENOON.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST TRACK POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION
(LAT. ºN/ LONG. ºE)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
29.05.2017/0600
17.8/91.4
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
29.05.2017/1200
18.9/91.5
90-100 GUSTING TO 110
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
29.05.2017/1800
20.1/91.5
100-110 GUSTING TO 120
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/0000
21.3/91.6
110-120 GUSTING TO 130
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/0600
22.8/91.7
110-120 GUSTING TO 130
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/1800
25.4/92.2
55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
31.05.2017/0600
27.7/93.0
30-40 GUSTING TO 50
DEPRESSION
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE: THE STORM SURGE OF HEIGHT OF ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 METER ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE OVER LOW LYING AREAS OF BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN SITAKUND AND UTTAR JALDI AT THE
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-246524844 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com
TIME OF LANDFALL.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND (MSW) IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992 HPA. A BUOY NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6º N AND LONGITUDE 89.1ºE REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
(MSLP) OF 1003.1 HPA AND MSW 320/21 KNOTS. ANOTHER BUOY NEAR LATITUDE
20.3º N AND LONGITUDE 92.0ºE REPORTED MSLP OF 1000.0 HPA. THE MULTISATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS OF EASTERN SECTOR.
THE CONVECTION HAS FURTHER ORGANISED IN PAST 12 HOURS AND SHOWS
CURVED BAND PATTERN. BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.00N
TO 22.00N LONGITUDE 85.00E TO 97.00E. MINIMUM CTT IS ARROUND – 90.00C. THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS 30-31ºC. THE OCEAN
THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE
TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS AROUND 15-25 KTS, VORTICITY IS
AROUND 200 X10-5 S-1. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER OF 50 X10-5
S-1. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO OF THE ORDER OF 50 X10-5 S-1 AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS
ALONG 17.0ºN IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORHNORTHEASTWARDS
AS IT LAYS WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SO FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
THEREAFTER EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IN WESTERLY OVER
EASTERN INDIA. CURRENTLY SYSTEM IS BEING STARRED BY THE DEEP LAYER
WIND OF 200-850 HPA. THE MEAN DEEP LAYER WIND BETWEEN 200-850 HPA IS
170DEGREE/7 KNOTS. THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATE CONTINUOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST
SECTOR. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMIS AT 0001 UTC OF 29TH
INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTRE FROM
NORTHEAST.
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
MORE THAN 1. IT WOULD CONTINUE IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1
DURING NEXT 3 DAYS. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT DURING
NEXT 48 HRS.
(NARESH KUMAR)
SCIENTIST ‘D’
RSMC, NEW DELHI
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-246524844 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com

Bangladesh Met Logo

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 12 (TWELVE), Date: 29.05.2017 (Local Times)
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 990 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS FURTHER OVER THE SAME AREA, INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (NEAR LAT 18.8°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 385 KMS SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 305 KMS SOUTH OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 450 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONGLA PORT AND 370 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS CHITTAGONG – COX’S BAZAR COAST BY MORNING OF 30 MAY 2017.
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ GUSTY/SQUALLY WIND WITH RAIN/ THUNDER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL DISTRICTS AND MARITIME PORTS OF BANGLADESH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 89 KPH RISING TO 117 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE SYSTEM.
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER TEN (R) TEN.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER FIVE BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 89-117 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

BD map

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 29 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MORA is currently located near 17.7 N 91.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). MORA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Bangladesh
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    India
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Cox’s Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bhutan
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Shillong (25.6 N, 91.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Dispur (26.1 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Imphal (24.8 N, 93.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Other

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Deadly Cyclone Mora hits Bangladesh with high winds and rain – BBC News

(30 May 2017 1105 UTC)

Cyclone Mora has hit the south-eastern coast of Bangladesh, killing at least five people.

Most of them were killed by falling trees in the districts of Cox’s Bazar and Rangamati, officials told the BBC.

Hundreds of houses were fully or partly damaged, the officials said. Significant damage is reported in refugee camps housing Rohingya Muslims from neighbouring Myanmar.

The authorities have moved hundreds of thousands of people to shelters.

Cyclone Mora made landfall at 06:00 local time (00:00 GMT) between the fishing port of Cox’s Bazar and the city of Chittagong, with winds of up to 117 km/h (73mph), the country’s meteorological department said.

Low-lying areas of Cox’s Bazar, Chittagong and many other coastal districts were “likely to be inundated” by a storm surge of 1.2m-1.5m (4-5ft) above normal levels, the department had warned.

People have been evacuated to shelters, schools and government offices.

Fishing boats and trawlers have been advised to remain in shelters. Flights in the area have been cancelled.

About 20,000 houses in refugee camps for Rohingya were damaged, community leader Abdus Salam told AFP news agency.

“In some places, almost every shanty home made of tin, bamboo and plastic has been flattened,” Mr Salam added. “Some people were injured, but no-one is dead.”

Large camps have been set up in Cox’s Bazar for hundreds of thousands of Rohingya who have fled violence in Myanmar.

A clear picture is still not available due to poor communication with many affected areas, Bangladeshi officials told the BBC.

A number of houses were also damaged in western Myanmar.

Cyclone Mora will move northwards past Chittagong, weakening as it moves further inland and downgrading from a Category One hurricane to a tropical storm, tracking website Tropical Storm Risk forecasts.

Parts of eastern India are expected to be affected later on.

The Bay of Bengal is prone to storms and Bangladesh is often hit by severe weather during the monsoon season, from the middle to the end of the year.

Last year, Cyclone Roanu hit coastal Bangladesh, leaving at least 24 people dead.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 291118
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONIC STORM “MORA” OVER BAY OF BENGAL
DATE AND TIME BASED UPON WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:
PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 290600 UTC
PRESENT POSITION: 17.8 0N/91.40 E
POSITION ACCURATE TO 40 KM
PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 010/07 KT
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 33 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORECASTS:
06 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z 18.9°N /91.50 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z 20.1°N /91.50 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

18 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z 21.3°N /91.60 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z 22.8°N /91.70 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z 25.4°N /92.20 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z 27.7°N /93.00 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 15KT, GUSTS 25 KT

Bangladesh Met

Marine Warning
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 12 (TWELVE), Date: 29.05.2017
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 990 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS FURTHER OVER THE SAME AREA, INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (NEAR LAT 18.8°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 385 KMS SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 305 KMS SOUTH OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 450 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONGLA PORT AND 370 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS CHITTAGONG – COX’S BAZAR COAST BY MORNING OF 30 MAY 2017.
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ GUSTY/SQUALLY WIND WITH RAIN/ THUNDER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL DISTRICTS AND MARITIME PORTS OF BANGLADESH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 89 KPH RISING TO 117 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE SYSTEM.
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER TEN (R) TEN.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER FIVE BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 89-117 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm ADRIAN (1E) 10/1600Z nr 10.3N 92.7W, moving NW at 06kt (JTWC) -Updated 10 May 2017 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian (1E)

Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday..
(NHC Miami FL 10/1540Z)

Scroll down for Hurricane Advisory

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 01E (Adrian) Warning #04
Issued at 10/1600Z

01E_101200sair adrian 10ep0117 JTWC 10 Adrian

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 10.1N 92.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 92.5W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 10.8N 93.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 11.4N 94.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 11.9N 95.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 12.2N 96.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 12.7N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 92.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1920 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
//
NNNN

National Hurricane Center – Miami FL

143603_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind nhc 10

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 101441 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 4…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017
1000 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Corrected for headline

…ADRIAN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…10.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 435 MI…700 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Adrian is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a slow
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 10 May, 2017 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ADRIAN is currently located near 9.5 N 92.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). ADRIAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

TSR Adrian 10

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 NHC 10

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 101430

WTPZ21 KNHC 101430 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012017
1500 UTC WED MAY 10 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 10.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…40NE 40SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.4N 94.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.9N 95.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.2N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT…30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT…40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1540 UTC Wed May 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 10.4N 92.7W at 10/1500 UTC
or about 380 nm SSE of Salina Cruz Mexico moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 93W and
95W. Scattered moderate is elsewhere from 09N to 15N between 91W
and 97W. Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N89W then from
11N96W to low pres 1008 MB 10N103W to 07N106W to 05N116W. ITCZ
from 05N116W to 06N126W to 04N135W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 06N between 78W and 82W…from 02N to
07N between 87W and 94W…from 03N to 08N between 107W and
126W…and from 03N to 07N between 129W and 139W.

…DISCUSSION…

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian which is forecast to approach the offshore waters
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later in the week.

Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 27N W of
the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across
the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo…except
occasional fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas.
Seas range from 5-7 ft in the offshore waters off Baja
California Norte…and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California…
except 3-4 ft S of 24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted
elsewhere. Little change in marine conditions is expected through
the end of the week…with the exception of Tropical Storm Adrian
moving into the southern-most zone late Thursday into early
Thursday night. Otherwise…by Friday night into Saturday…the
pressure gradient off southern California will increase
supporting strong NW winds which will build NW swell to 8-12 ft
in offshore waters N of 25N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian east of Central America.

Otherwise…mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail
during the daytime hours…with gentle to moderate offshore
winds during the overnight hours through the next several days.
Combined seas of 4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA…
An area of high pressure with ridge axis extending from 29N147W
to 21N118W is expected to continue weakening and dissipate as a
cold front approaches the NW part of the discussion area. The
front will stall and dissipate from 30N132W to 27N140W by
Thursday night. High pressure will build in behind the front…
increasing trades and resultant seas slightly by the end of the
week. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere N of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas of 6-8 ft are
across this same area.

$$
HUFFMAN

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Tropical Depression MUIFA/DANTE 03W 27/1500Z position nr 17.3N 135.1E, moving NW 11 kt (JTWC) – Published 27 Apr 2017 1545z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression MUIFA (03W )

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0317 JTWC MUIFA

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 17.0N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 134.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 18.4N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 20.1N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 135.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
//
NNNN

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 270600

WTJP21 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1701 MUIFA (1701) 1002 HPA
AT 15.7N 134.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.0N 135.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 18.8N 137.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 23.3N 144.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping from PAGASA

WTPH RPMM 271200

TTT WARNING 7-FINAL

AT 1200 27 APRIL TROPICAL DEPRESSION {MUIFA} (1701) DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 281200 ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND UNLESS RE-ENTRY OCCURS THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm #ARLENE 21/0900Z nr 40.0N 48.0W, moving W 27 kt (NHC FL) – Updated 21 Apr 2017 1325 (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm ARLENE

National Hurricane Center (NHC)

121705_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind arlene nhc

000
WTNT31 KNHC 210832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012017
500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

…ARLENE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC…
…STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…40.0N 48.0W
ABOUT 1135 MI…1825 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 31 MPH…50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 48.0 West. Arlene is
moving toward the west near 31 mph (50 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected, and Arlene is forecast to
become absorbed by a large extratropical low and dissipate later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
END

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0832

WTNT21 KNHC 210832
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012017
0900 UTC FRI APR 21 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 48.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 48.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 50.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 0SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar:Ex Tropical Cyclone Enawo 09S 081800Z Position nr 17.9S 46.6E, moving SW 08 Kt (RSMC LaReunion) – Updated 08 Mar 2017 1956z (GMT/UTC)

==

Ex Tropical Cyclone Enawo 09S

WTIO31 FMEE 081910 CCA
FIX *.
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 6/26/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION ON EARTH 6 (EX-ENAWO)
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 30 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(SEVENTEEN NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTYSIX DEGREES SIX IS)
DISPLACEMENT: SOUTHWEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NOTHINGNESS
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NILE
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT DON’T: 430 SE: 440 SO: NO. 0: 0
34 KT IS: 0 SE: 350 SO: NO. 0: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.5 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E WIND MAX = 045 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 30.9 S / 49.2 E WIND MAX = 045 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.8 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICAL
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 37.4 S / 44.2 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICAL
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 46.0 S / 46.6 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C COMMENTS:
FIX ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH IS NOT FILLED (SYSTEM ON)
EARTH)
EX-ENAWO CONTINUES TO SINK INTO THE MALAGASY LAND IN
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A TENDENCY TO THE DOWNTURN
ON THE LAST 6 HOURS. HE SHOULD DIVE MORE FRANKLY IN
HEADING SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ACCELERANT.
CONFIGURING SATELLITE REMAINS THE SAME, WITH THE PRESENCE OF
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE LINES (ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND THE)
COAST NORTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR AT THE ELECTRICAL LEVEL) SE FAR FORMING
CENTER IN PART ON SEA IN THE NORTH-WEST QUADRANTS AND SOUTHEAST
THE TRAFFIC.
IN THE COMING DAYS, THE DISPLACEMENT CONTINUES ON A
TRAJECTORY THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MERIDIAN WITH THE WEAKENING
THE RIDGE PRESENT ON AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE ON MADAGASCAR. THE
ORDER OF THE WIND BLOW STRONG WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE COAST IS MALAGASY DURING THIS DESCENT, IS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST
MALAGASY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW NIGHT OR NEXT. AT THE
RE-RELEASE AT SEA (THURSDAY NIGHT (A FRIDAY), THE BEGINNING OF A TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICAL SHOULD START QUICKLY ENOUGH IN INTERACTION
WITH A WATER-COURSE OF ARRIVING BY THE SOUTHWEST INTO A ALTITUDE
VERY CISAILLEE ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL OCEANIC
DECREASING QUICKLY.
WTIO31 FMEE 081910 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/6/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 6 (EX-ENAWO)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : NIL
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 440 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 0 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 46.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
CORRECTIF SUR LA PRESSION CENTRALE QUI EST NON RENSEIGNEE (SYSTEME SUR
TERRE)
EX-ENAWO CONTINUE DE S’ENFONCER DANS LES TERRES MALGACHES EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST AVEC UNE TENDANCE AU RALENTISSEMENT
SUR LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES. IL DEVRAIT PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES EN ACCELERANT.
LA CONFIGURATION SATELLITAIRE RESTE IDENTIQUE, AVEC LA PRESENCE DE
LIGNES DE CONVERGENCE ACTIVES (SURTOUT SUR LE NORD DU CANAL ET LA
COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR AU NIVEAU ELECTRIQUE) SE FORMANT LOIN
DU CENTRE EN PARTIE SUR MER DANS LES QUADRANTS NORD-OUEST ET SUD-EST
DE LA CIRCULATION.
DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE DEPLACEMENT SE POURSUIT SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT VITE DEVENIR MERIDIENNE AVEC L’AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DE LA DORSALE PRESENTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR MADAGASCAR. DES
VENTS FORTS DE L’ORDRE DU COUP DE VENT DEVRAIT RESTER PRESENT LE LONG
DES COTES EST MALGACHES LORS DE CETTE DESCENTE, S’ETENDANT AU SUD-EST
MALGACHE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE DEMAIN OU NUIT SUIVANTE. A LA
RESSORTIE EN MER (NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI), LE DEBUT D’UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE DEVRAIT S’AMORCER ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN INTERACTION
AVEC UN TALWEG D’ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT TRES CISAILLEE ET AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DIMINUANT RAPIDEMENT.
SWI$06_20162017 REUNION 08

==========================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Not available at time of posting

=========================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Enawo) Warning #10 Final Warning
Issued at 07/2100Z

sh0917 JTWC 08

09S_071800sair

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 15.2S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 49.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 16.5S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 18.1S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 21.1S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO SPIRAL INTO A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND
OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CONCURRENTLY, TC 09S WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE
TERRAIN. THE REMNANT VORTEX SIGNATURE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE PASSING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO24 FMEE 081837 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2017
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2017 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ENAWO) NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 18S AND 20S.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 110 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 17S AND 21S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2017/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
21.4 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2017/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
25.0 S / 46.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CORRECTIVE: CENTRAL PRESSURE UNKNOWN (OVER-LAND DEPRESSION)
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/Taiwan: Severe Tropical Storm Nepartak (1601, 02W) 082100Z POSITION near 23.7N 119.5E, moving N 01 Knot (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jul 2016 2040Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm  Nepartak/ Butchoy in PH (1601, 02W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 Japan Meteorological agency

1601-00 8

 

1601-00 enlarged.png 8

STS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 8 July 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°40′ (23.7°)
E119°25′ (119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°30′ (25.5°)
E117°20′ (117.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 02W (Nepartak) Warning #24
Issued at 08/2100Z

wp0216 8a

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 23.4N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 119.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 24.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 25.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 26.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 27.3N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at  6 Jul, 2016 6:00 GMT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NEPARTAK is currently located near 23.4 N 119.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). NEPARTAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1601 NEPARTAK (1601) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
980 HPA
AT 23.7N 119.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 25.5N 117.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 28.2N 117.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Storm Danielle (04L) STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS E MEXICO…NHC – Published 20 Jun 2016 1745z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Danielle

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]000
WTNT34 KNHC 201432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

…DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Danielle
makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DANIELLE is currently located near 20.7 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). DANIELLE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Danielle the Atlantic’s Earliest 4th Storm on Record; 115°-120° Heat in SW U.S – WEATHER UNDERGROUND

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 3:59 PM GMT on June 20, 2016

“Tropical Storm Danielle formed on Monday morning in the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, but won’t be around long. The storm’s west to west-northwest motion will carry the storm inland over Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico by Monday evening. With top winds of just 45 mph as estimated by the National Hurricane Center in their 11 am EDT Monday advisory, heavy rain is expected to be the primary threat from the storm. Satellite loops show a large area of intense thunderstorms with heavy rain are moving inland along the Mexican coast south of Texas, and total rainfall amounts of 6 – 10″ are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in the mountainous terrain along the coast. Heavy rains from Danielle will remain just south of Texas, with Brownsville expected to pick up an inch of rain or less in scattered thunderstorms through Monday night. Danielle will dissipate by Tuesday over the rugged terrain east of Mexico City.”
For more click link https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3337

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 20

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431

WTNT24 KNHC 201431
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W…NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z…DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

North Atlantic: ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM… …NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES – NHC – Updated 15 Jan 2016 1516z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Alex

…ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES…

at201601_5day 1600

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

at201601_sat_anim 1600

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

145558W5_NL_sm.gif

000
WTNT31 KNHC 151455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016

…ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…39.3N 27.0W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 28 MPH…44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the hurricane
and tropical storm warning for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
Satellite and surface data indicate that Alex made landfall on the
island of Terceira around 915 AM AST (1315 UTC) as a tropical storm
with an intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 27.0 West. Alex is
moving toward the north near 28 mph (44 km/h) and a turn toward the
north-northwest and northwest is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Alex is expected to lose tropical characteristics later
today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still possible
over portions of the Azores for the next few hours.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Rainfall in association with Alex should diminish across
the Azores this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and waves should gradually diminish
across the Azores today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jan, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ALEX is currently located near 39.3 N 27.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). ALEX is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Azores
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ponta Delgada (37.7 N, 25.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201601N 1600

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

201601142241_at_graphicast b

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 151454

WTNT21 KNHC 151454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1500 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT…….150NE 150SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….400NE 300SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 240SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 27.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.1N 28.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…240NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT…420NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 52.7N 31.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…240NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…420NE 300SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW.
34 KT…420NE 60SE 60SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 27.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bermuda/ Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Joaquin CAT2 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W, moving NNE 15 knots (NHC FL) – Updated 04 OCT 2015 1705z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin

(CATEGORY 2Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Hurricane Warning for BERMUDA – storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Hurricane Warning

Updated: 11:30 am Sunday, October 04, 2015

Additional Information:

Hurricane force winds are expected to occur for a period during Sunday evening, especially in the west and over elevated, exposed areas. Please refer to latest Tropical Update Information.
Hurricane Warning
A warning that one or both of the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles in 36 hours or less: (a) average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) (74 mph) or higher; (b) dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force.

Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Fred Byrley

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

145216W5_NL_sm 4

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will
pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda
tonight.

Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 31.0 N 66.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201511N 4

Other Reports

#SCwx #NCwx #SC #NC #SAR #Flood #SevereWx #News/ Historic, life-taking #flooding in #SouthCarolina – many rescues rptd

Even though #Hurricane #Joaquin is tracking away from the United States, torrential rainfall continues to pound the #EastCoast. Heavy rain has brought historic, life-threatening flooding in many locations in South Carolina, including in #Charleston and #Columbia, where numerous rescues have been reported. Into Monday, a feed of rich tropical moisture from the #Atlantic will continue to unleash heavy rainfall on the Southeast, especially in parts of South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina. Gov. Nikki Haley urged the residents of South Carolina to stay safe, saying that the amount of rain in the low country was at its highest level in a 1,000 years and noted that the #CongareeRiver was at its highest level since 1936. In eastern South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina, rainfall totals are predicted to range from 12 to 24 inches, nearly half of the normal rainfall for an entire year. President #Obama has already declared a state of emergency in South Carolina and ordered federal aid to help state and local efforts. Rain and flood warnings remained in effect for many parts of the East Coast on Sunday. While much of the torrential rainfall was centered in the #Carolinas, coastal communities as far as #NewJersey were feeling the effects of unrelenting rainfall. In New Jersey, storms dislodged an entire house from its pilings in a low-lying area of #MiddleTownship, according to NBC New York. Flood watches and warnings are in effect in parts of New Jersey, as well as #Delaware, #Maryland and #Virginia. At least 5 people have died on the East Coast since the severe weather began. Of the three weather-related deaths in South Carolina, two were motorists who lost control of their cars and the third was a pedestrian hit by a car. Take a look at photos of the unfolding devastation from the torrential rains and powerful wind gusts.

Monday, 05 October, 2015 at 12:23 (12:23 PM) UTC RSOE

See also https://www.windyty.com/?23.624,-73.795,6

Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog

Thousand-Year Rains Possible in Carolinas; Joaquin Headed North

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 4:39 PM GMT on October 02, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin continued to lash the Bahamas on Friday morning as it turned north on a course expected to keep it well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, several days of coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur from New Jersey to North Carolina, and extremely heavy rain could produce dangerous impacts in South Carolina. It was a long night of screaming winds, pounding waves, and lashing rains for residents of the Central Bahama Islands, where dangerous Hurricane Joaquin maintained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph winds. The eyewall of Joaquin affected Crooked Island/Acklins Island (population 600), and Long Island (population 3,000) for many hours, and no doubt damage is heavy to extreme on those islands. Joaquin has turned to the north, as seen on microwave satellite animations, and as the storm plows northwards at 3 – 6 mph on Friday, San Salvador Island (population 900) will likely feel eyewall winds. The Hurricane Hunters made multiple passes through the hurricane Friday morning, finding that the central pressure had gradually risen from 935 mb to 939 mb. The size of the eye has been fluctuating considerably, and the Hurricane Hunters noted a secondary maxima of winds away from the eyewall, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle may be ready to begin. These cycles that lead to a collapse of the inner eyewall, followed by a temporary weakening as a new outer eyewall is established. Wind shear continued to be in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, on Friday morning, and visible and infrared satellite loops showed that Joaquin continued to maintain a formidable appearance. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has now has two impressive upper-level outflow channels, one to the northwest, and one to the southeast. Ocean temperatures in the region remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F). These conditions should allow Joaquin to maintain at least Category 3 strength until Saturday.


Figure 1. Lightning flashes in one of Hurricane Joaquin’s spiral bands in this nighttime image taken in the early morning hours of October 2, 2015 from the International Space Station. The lights of Miami are visible in the upper left. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly, ISS.


Figure 2.  GOES-13 visible image of Hurricane Joaquin taken at 8:45 am EDT October 2, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Forecast for Joaquin
Joaquin is finally embarking on its long-awaited turn toward the north, and the Bahamas are likely the only land areas that will feel a direct impact from the storm. Microwave satellite animations on Friday morning showed the convective core of Joaquin shifting toward the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is now streaming toward the northwest, some of it becoming entrained in the frontal system off the East Coast.

The 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) computer model runs continued to lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions inched slightly westward from their previous tracks, bringing Joaquin a bit closer to Cape Cod through a subtle left swing in its path. The 06Z GFS run shifted back toward the east, well away from New England, and the 12Z GFS run also remained far offshore. A slight northward bend in the otherwise northeastward track remains in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions, as noted in the 11:00 am EDT forecast discussion from NHC. The ECMWF’s 00Z Friday ensemble runs were quite closely clustered around the offshore track, with only a couple of its 50 members suggesting the potential for a New England landfall. In contrast, more than a third of the 00Z and 06Z GEFS ensemble members continue to indicate the possibility of a SC/NC landfall, although the operational GFS model has not shown such a solution for some time. Among other major models, the Canadian GEM and the U.S. NAM (including the 12Z Friday NAM ran) also point toward an East Coast landfall, but take heed: these are historically among the least-reliable track models, so we would be wise to heavily discount them in favor of the GFS and ECMWF.


Figure 3. GFS ensemble members from the GEFS run on 06Z Friday, October 2, lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin as depicted in the official NHC forecast, although a few members still bring Joaquin along a looping onshore path near the U.S. East Coast. On the right-hand side are the ensembles’ projected tracks for Invest 90L. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

The official NHC forecast track as of 11:00 am EDT Friday keeps Joaquin hundreds of miles away from the U.S. East Coast, and NHC has enough confidence in this track that the “key points” section of its latest forecast discussion does not mention any potential for a U.S. landfall. The persistence of a few model outliers should not be a particular cause for concern at this point, but it does remind us that the upper-level features that will steer Joaquin are complex and dynamic. The two main influences on Joaquin’s track remain the upper low now cutting off over the Southeast U.S. and Invest 90L, located more than 1000 miles east of Joaquin. 90L originated from an upper-level low that has incorporated remnants of former Tropical Storm Ida. The NHC is giving 90L an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it drifts northward. The presence of 90L is creating a pathway for Joaquin to head northeast.

It appears that the strong jet stream diving around the Southeast low will kick eastward around the base of the low over the next couple of days, pushing the eastern part of the low offshore. Together with the influence of slowly developing 90L, this should keep Joaquin moving on a north to northeast track Friday and Saturday. As Figure 3 suggests, a more northeastward motion would lend confidence in the current expectation of an offshore track, while any significant component of motion toward the west today and Saturday would keep open the door for the far-less-likely possibility of a track hooking around the Southeast upper low. We’ll be watching the 12Z Friday model guidance closely and will have more on the forecast for Joaquin in our afternoon update.


Figure 4. Projected rainfall (in inches) for the 72-hour period from 12Z (8 am EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015, to Monday, October 5. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Epic rainfall likely for South Carolina
The latest 3-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for 10 – 15″ inches of rain for the majority of South Carolina, including the cities of Charleston and Columbia.

This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a “Predecessor Rain Event” (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. The PRE can develop well to the left or right of the eventual track of the tropical cyclone. Slow-moving Hurricane Joaquin is perfectly positioned to transport a strong low-level flow of super-moist tropical air that has water vapor evaporated from record-warm ocean waters north of the Bahamas westwards into the Southeast U.S. Once this moisture hits land, it will encounter a cut-off upper low pressure system aloft, with a surface front beneath it, which will lift the moist air, cooling it, and forcing epic amounts of rainfall to fall. The air will also be moving up in elevation from the coast to the Piedmont and Appalachians, which lifts the air and facilitates even more precipitation. Satellite imagery is already hinting at development of this connection of moisture between Joaquin and the Southeast low and frontal system.


Figure 5. The maximum rainfall predicted to fall in any 24-hour period during the 5-day period from 5 am EDT October 2 to 5 am EDT October 7, according to a high-resolution Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model run done by MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) In some areas of North Carolina and South Carolina, 24-hour rainfall amounts one would expect to fall only once in a thousand years are predicted. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/ or on their Facebook page.

Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur.  According to NOAA’s Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical “recurrence interval” of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 17.1″, 17.8″, and 14.2″, respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 14.8″, 15.9″, and 12.5″, respectively.

The storm to beat in South Carolina is Tropical Storm Jerry of 1995, which dumped up to 18.51″ of rain over a small region of Southwest SC. The storm to beat in nearby eastern North Carolina is Hurricane Floyd, which dumped prodigious amounts of rain in mid-September 1999, less than a month after Hurricane Dennis had drenched the region. Floyd produced a broad stripe of 15″ – 20″ rains, with a maximum total of 24.06″ at a site five miles north of Southport, NC (about 30 miles east of the NC/SC border). To get such widespread multi-day totals outside of a tropical cyclone would be a monumental feat.  Averaged across the state as a whole, the wettest three calendar months in South Carolina weather history are July 1916 (14.41″), September 1924 (13.16″), and September 1928 (12.70″). All of these were related to tropical cyclones passing through or near the state. If the NWS precipitation forecasts are in the right ballpark, then the first few days of October 2015 might approach or even exceed these all-time monthly records for the entire state–without any help from a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm!

Texas and Oklahoma have already notched their wettest months on record (by far) this past May, and Illinois had its second-wettest month on record in June. Our warming climate is making intense short-term rains (such as the highest 1-day totals) even heavier in many parts of the United States and the world, although less research has been done on trends in monthly rainfall.

For more on the science of extremely heavy rainfall, see Bob Henson’s May 2015 post, The Rains of May and the Science of Recurrence Intervals.


Figure 6. Projected maximum flood category for the 24-hour period from noon EDT Friday, October 2, through Saturday, October 3, 2015. The worst impacts today through Saturday are expected through the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Strong on-shore winds along the mid-Atlantic coast due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Joaquin and a strong high pressure system over the Northeast U.S. were creating storm surge heights of 2 – 3′ in many locations, and over 3′ on Virginia’s Delmarva Peninsula. Image credit: Hal Needham.

Long-duration coastal flooding under way
The combination of Hurricane Joaquin, the Southeast U.S. low, and a strong ridge well to the north is leading to an unusually prolonged period of steady onshore flow and high surf along the U.S. East Coast from New Jersey southward to North Carolina. The highest-impact coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected along the Virginia and Delaware coast, including Ocean City, MD, and the Hampton Roads area of VA, which includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wakefield, VA, NWS office is calling for several rounds of moderate to severe coastal flooding through the weekend. See the latest blog post from storm-surge expert Hal Needham for more details on this event.

We’ll have an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Sunday, October 04, 2015
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

**A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT** As Hurricane Joaquin’s makes its approach, winds increase tropical storm force to storm force this afternoon with a period of hurricane force winds, especially in the west, this evening into the night. Joaquin’s closest point of approach remains near 60 miles, with slow improvement during Monday.

Today –

Winds southeasterly 30 to 40 knots gusts to 50 knots, increasing 40 to 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots later in the afternoon…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Building southerly swells… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 18 ft, building…  Sunrise: 7:14 am.

Tonight –

Winds southerly 40 to 50 knots gusts to 60 knots, increasing 55 to 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots, mainly in the west and in elevated areas, decreasing slowly and veering southwesterly overnight…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Southerly swells building high… Seas inside the reef 3 to 7 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 35 ft…  Sunset: 7:00 pm.

Monday –

Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 knots gusts to 45 knots, decreasing 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots by evening, further decreasing 18 to 24 knots with stronger gusts overnight…  Isolated to scattered showers, becoming isolated during the day, with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 20 ft, decreasing during the afternoon inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 9 to 15 ft…  Sunrise: 7:15 am; Sunset: 6:59 pm.

Tuesday –

Winds southwesterly 16 to 22 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the morning…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 11 ft…  Sunrise: 7:16 am; Sunset: 6:57 pm.

Wednesday –

Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the afternoon…  Isolated to scattered showers with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:56 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 12 to 18 knots…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:55 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 2:30 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 2:57 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 9:14 pm this evening: 0.4m/1.3ft, 9:20 am Monday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 26.9°C/80.4°F
Meteorologist: Fred Byrley, Observer: Chris Black

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 021452

WTNT21 KNHC 041450
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT……. 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 200SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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