Madagascar:Ex Tropical Cyclone Enawo 09S 081800Z Position nr 17.9S 46.6E, moving SW 08 Kt (RSMC LaReunion) – Updated 08 Mar 2017 1956z (GMT/UTC)

==

Ex Tropical Cyclone Enawo 09S

WTIO31 FMEE 081910 CCA
FIX *.
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 6/26/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION ON EARTH 6 (EX-ENAWO)
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 30 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(SEVENTEEN NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTYSIX DEGREES SIX IS)
DISPLACEMENT: SOUTHWEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NOTHINGNESS
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NILE
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT DON’T: 430 SE: 440 SO: NO. 0: 0
34 KT IS: 0 SE: 350 SO: NO. 0: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.5 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E WIND MAX = 045 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 30.9 S / 49.2 E WIND MAX = 045 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.8 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICAL
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 37.4 S / 44.2 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICAL
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 46.0 S / 46.6 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C COMMENTS:
FIX ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH IS NOT FILLED (SYSTEM ON)
EARTH)
EX-ENAWO CONTINUES TO SINK INTO THE MALAGASY LAND IN
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A TENDENCY TO THE DOWNTURN
ON THE LAST 6 HOURS. HE SHOULD DIVE MORE FRANKLY IN
HEADING SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ACCELERANT.
CONFIGURING SATELLITE REMAINS THE SAME, WITH THE PRESENCE OF
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE LINES (ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND THE)
COAST NORTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR AT THE ELECTRICAL LEVEL) SE FAR FORMING
CENTER IN PART ON SEA IN THE NORTH-WEST QUADRANTS AND SOUTHEAST
THE TRAFFIC.
IN THE COMING DAYS, THE DISPLACEMENT CONTINUES ON A
TRAJECTORY THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MERIDIAN WITH THE WEAKENING
THE RIDGE PRESENT ON AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE ON MADAGASCAR. THE
ORDER OF THE WIND BLOW STRONG WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE COAST IS MALAGASY DURING THIS DESCENT, IS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST
MALAGASY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW NIGHT OR NEXT. AT THE
RE-RELEASE AT SEA (THURSDAY NIGHT (A FRIDAY), THE BEGINNING OF A TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICAL SHOULD START QUICKLY ENOUGH IN INTERACTION
WITH A WATER-COURSE OF ARRIVING BY THE SOUTHWEST INTO A ALTITUDE
VERY CISAILLEE ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL OCEANIC
DECREASING QUICKLY.
WTIO31 FMEE 081910 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/6/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 6 (EX-ENAWO)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : NIL
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 440 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 0 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 46.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
CORRECTIF SUR LA PRESSION CENTRALE QUI EST NON RENSEIGNEE (SYSTEME SUR
TERRE)
EX-ENAWO CONTINUE DE S’ENFONCER DANS LES TERRES MALGACHES EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST AVEC UNE TENDANCE AU RALENTISSEMENT
SUR LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES. IL DEVRAIT PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES EN ACCELERANT.
LA CONFIGURATION SATELLITAIRE RESTE IDENTIQUE, AVEC LA PRESENCE DE
LIGNES DE CONVERGENCE ACTIVES (SURTOUT SUR LE NORD DU CANAL ET LA
COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR AU NIVEAU ELECTRIQUE) SE FORMANT LOIN
DU CENTRE EN PARTIE SUR MER DANS LES QUADRANTS NORD-OUEST ET SUD-EST
DE LA CIRCULATION.
DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE DEPLACEMENT SE POURSUIT SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT VITE DEVENIR MERIDIENNE AVEC L’AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DE LA DORSALE PRESENTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUR MADAGASCAR. DES
VENTS FORTS DE L’ORDRE DU COUP DE VENT DEVRAIT RESTER PRESENT LE LONG
DES COTES EST MALGACHES LORS DE CETTE DESCENTE, S’ETENDANT AU SUD-EST
MALGACHE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE DEMAIN OU NUIT SUIVANTE. A LA
RESSORTIE EN MER (NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI), LE DEBUT D’UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE DEVRAIT S’AMORCER ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN INTERACTION
AVEC UN TALWEG D’ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT TRES CISAILLEE ET AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DIMINUANT RAPIDEMENT.
SWI$06_20162017 REUNION 08

==========================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Not available at time of posting

=========================================================

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Enawo) Warning #10 Final Warning
Issued at 07/2100Z

sh0917 JTWC 08

09S_071800sair

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 15.2S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 49.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 16.5S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 18.1S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 21.1S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO SPIRAL INTO A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND
OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CONCURRENTLY, TC 09S WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE
TERRAIN. THE REMNANT VORTEX SIGNATURE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE PASSING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO24 FMEE 081837 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2017
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2017 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ENAWO) NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 46.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 18S AND 20S.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 110 NM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 17S AND 21S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2017/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
21.4 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2017/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
25.0 S / 46.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CORRECTIVE: CENTRAL PRESSURE UNKNOWN (OVER-LAND DEPRESSION)
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/Taiwan: Severe Tropical Storm Nepartak (1601, 02W) 082100Z POSITION near 23.7N 119.5E, moving N 01 Knot (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jul 2016 2040Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm  Nepartak/ Butchoy in PH (1601, 02W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 Japan Meteorological agency

1601-00 8

 

1601-00 enlarged.png 8

STS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 8 July 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N23°40′ (23.7°)
E119°25′ (119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°30′ (25.5°)
E117°20′ (117.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 02W (Nepartak) Warning #24
Issued at 08/2100Z

wp0216 8a

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 23.4N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 119.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 24.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 25.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 26.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 27.3N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at  6 Jul, 2016 6:00 GMT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jul, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NEPARTAK is currently located near 23.4 N 119.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). NEPARTAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1601 NEPARTAK (1601) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
980 HPA
AT 23.7N 119.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 25.5N 117.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 28.2N 117.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Storm Danielle (04L) STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS E MEXICO…NHC – Published 20 Jun 2016 1745z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Danielle

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]000
WTNT34 KNHC 201432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

…DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Danielle
makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DANIELLE is currently located near 20.7 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). DANIELLE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Danielle the Atlantic’s Earliest 4th Storm on Record; 115°-120° Heat in SW U.S – WEATHER UNDERGROUND

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 3:59 PM GMT on June 20, 2016

“Tropical Storm Danielle formed on Monday morning in the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, but won’t be around long. The storm’s west to west-northwest motion will carry the storm inland over Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico by Monday evening. With top winds of just 45 mph as estimated by the National Hurricane Center in their 11 am EDT Monday advisory, heavy rain is expected to be the primary threat from the storm. Satellite loops show a large area of intense thunderstorms with heavy rain are moving inland along the Mexican coast south of Texas, and total rainfall amounts of 6 – 10″ are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in the mountainous terrain along the coast. Heavy rains from Danielle will remain just south of Texas, with Brownsville expected to pick up an inch of rain or less in scattered thunderstorms through Monday night. Danielle will dissipate by Tuesday over the rugged terrain east of Mexico City.”
For more click link https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3337

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 20

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431

WTNT24 KNHC 201431
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W…NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z…DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

North Atlantic: ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM… …NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES – NHC – Updated 15 Jan 2016 1516z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Alex

…ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES…

at201601_5day 1600

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

at201601_sat_anim 1600

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

145558W5_NL_sm.gif

000
WTNT31 KNHC 151455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016

…ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…39.3N 27.0W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 28 MPH…44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the hurricane
and tropical storm warning for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
Satellite and surface data indicate that Alex made landfall on the
island of Terceira around 915 AM AST (1315 UTC) as a tropical storm
with an intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 27.0 West. Alex is
moving toward the north near 28 mph (44 km/h) and a turn toward the
north-northwest and northwest is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Alex is expected to lose tropical characteristics later
today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still possible
over portions of the Azores for the next few hours.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Rainfall in association with Alex should diminish across
the Azores this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and waves should gradually diminish
across the Azores today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jan, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ALEX is currently located near 39.3 N 27.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). ALEX is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Azores
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ponta Delgada (37.7 N, 25.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201601N 1600

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

201601142241_at_graphicast b

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 151454

WTNT21 KNHC 151454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1500 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT…….150NE 150SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….400NE 300SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 240SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 27.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.1N 28.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…240NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT…420NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 52.7N 31.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…240NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…420NE 300SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW.
34 KT…420NE 60SE 60SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 27.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bermuda/ Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Joaquin CAT2 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W, moving NNE 15 knots (NHC FL) – Updated 04 OCT 2015 1705z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin

(CATEGORY 2Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Hurricane Warning for BERMUDA – storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Hurricane Warning

Updated: 11:30 am Sunday, October 04, 2015

Additional Information:

Hurricane force winds are expected to occur for a period during Sunday evening, especially in the west and over elevated, exposed areas. Please refer to latest Tropical Update Information.
Hurricane Warning
A warning that one or both of the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles in 36 hours or less: (a) average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) (74 mph) or higher; (b) dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force.

Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Fred Byrley

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

145216W5_NL_sm 4

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will
pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda
tonight.

Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 31.0 N 66.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201511N 4

Other Reports

#SCwx #NCwx #SC #NC #SAR #Flood #SevereWx #News/ Historic, life-taking #flooding in #SouthCarolina – many rescues rptd

Even though #Hurricane #Joaquin is tracking away from the United States, torrential rainfall continues to pound the #EastCoast. Heavy rain has brought historic, life-threatening flooding in many locations in South Carolina, including in #Charleston and #Columbia, where numerous rescues have been reported. Into Monday, a feed of rich tropical moisture from the #Atlantic will continue to unleash heavy rainfall on the Southeast, especially in parts of South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina. Gov. Nikki Haley urged the residents of South Carolina to stay safe, saying that the amount of rain in the low country was at its highest level in a 1,000 years and noted that the #CongareeRiver was at its highest level since 1936. In eastern South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina, rainfall totals are predicted to range from 12 to 24 inches, nearly half of the normal rainfall for an entire year. President #Obama has already declared a state of emergency in South Carolina and ordered federal aid to help state and local efforts. Rain and flood warnings remained in effect for many parts of the East Coast on Sunday. While much of the torrential rainfall was centered in the #Carolinas, coastal communities as far as #NewJersey were feeling the effects of unrelenting rainfall. In New Jersey, storms dislodged an entire house from its pilings in a low-lying area of #MiddleTownship, according to NBC New York. Flood watches and warnings are in effect in parts of New Jersey, as well as #Delaware, #Maryland and #Virginia. At least 5 people have died on the East Coast since the severe weather began. Of the three weather-related deaths in South Carolina, two were motorists who lost control of their cars and the third was a pedestrian hit by a car. Take a look at photos of the unfolding devastation from the torrential rains and powerful wind gusts.

Monday, 05 October, 2015 at 12:23 (12:23 PM) UTC RSOE

See also https://www.windyty.com/?23.624,-73.795,6

Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog

Thousand-Year Rains Possible in Carolinas; Joaquin Headed North

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 4:39 PM GMT on October 02, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin continued to lash the Bahamas on Friday morning as it turned north on a course expected to keep it well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, several days of coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur from New Jersey to North Carolina, and extremely heavy rain could produce dangerous impacts in South Carolina. It was a long night of screaming winds, pounding waves, and lashing rains for residents of the Central Bahama Islands, where dangerous Hurricane Joaquin maintained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph winds. The eyewall of Joaquin affected Crooked Island/Acklins Island (population 600), and Long Island (population 3,000) for many hours, and no doubt damage is heavy to extreme on those islands. Joaquin has turned to the north, as seen on microwave satellite animations, and as the storm plows northwards at 3 – 6 mph on Friday, San Salvador Island (population 900) will likely feel eyewall winds. The Hurricane Hunters made multiple passes through the hurricane Friday morning, finding that the central pressure had gradually risen from 935 mb to 939 mb. The size of the eye has been fluctuating considerably, and the Hurricane Hunters noted a secondary maxima of winds away from the eyewall, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle may be ready to begin. These cycles that lead to a collapse of the inner eyewall, followed by a temporary weakening as a new outer eyewall is established. Wind shear continued to be in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, on Friday morning, and visible and infrared satellite loops showed that Joaquin continued to maintain a formidable appearance. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has now has two impressive upper-level outflow channels, one to the northwest, and one to the southeast. Ocean temperatures in the region remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F). These conditions should allow Joaquin to maintain at least Category 3 strength until Saturday.


Figure 1. Lightning flashes in one of Hurricane Joaquin’s spiral bands in this nighttime image taken in the early morning hours of October 2, 2015 from the International Space Station. The lights of Miami are visible in the upper left. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly, ISS.


Figure 2.  GOES-13 visible image of Hurricane Joaquin taken at 8:45 am EDT October 2, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Forecast for Joaquin
Joaquin is finally embarking on its long-awaited turn toward the north, and the Bahamas are likely the only land areas that will feel a direct impact from the storm. Microwave satellite animations on Friday morning showed the convective core of Joaquin shifting toward the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is now streaming toward the northwest, some of it becoming entrained in the frontal system off the East Coast.

The 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) computer model runs continued to lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions inched slightly westward from their previous tracks, bringing Joaquin a bit closer to Cape Cod through a subtle left swing in its path. The 06Z GFS run shifted back toward the east, well away from New England, and the 12Z GFS run also remained far offshore. A slight northward bend in the otherwise northeastward track remains in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions, as noted in the 11:00 am EDT forecast discussion from NHC. The ECMWF’s 00Z Friday ensemble runs were quite closely clustered around the offshore track, with only a couple of its 50 members suggesting the potential for a New England landfall. In contrast, more than a third of the 00Z and 06Z GEFS ensemble members continue to indicate the possibility of a SC/NC landfall, although the operational GFS model has not shown such a solution for some time. Among other major models, the Canadian GEM and the U.S. NAM (including the 12Z Friday NAM ran) also point toward an East Coast landfall, but take heed: these are historically among the least-reliable track models, so we would be wise to heavily discount them in favor of the GFS and ECMWF.


Figure 3. GFS ensemble members from the GEFS run on 06Z Friday, October 2, lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin as depicted in the official NHC forecast, although a few members still bring Joaquin along a looping onshore path near the U.S. East Coast. On the right-hand side are the ensembles’ projected tracks for Invest 90L. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

The official NHC forecast track as of 11:00 am EDT Friday keeps Joaquin hundreds of miles away from the U.S. East Coast, and NHC has enough confidence in this track that the “key points” section of its latest forecast discussion does not mention any potential for a U.S. landfall. The persistence of a few model outliers should not be a particular cause for concern at this point, but it does remind us that the upper-level features that will steer Joaquin are complex and dynamic. The two main influences on Joaquin’s track remain the upper low now cutting off over the Southeast U.S. and Invest 90L, located more than 1000 miles east of Joaquin. 90L originated from an upper-level low that has incorporated remnants of former Tropical Storm Ida. The NHC is giving 90L an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it drifts northward. The presence of 90L is creating a pathway for Joaquin to head northeast.

It appears that the strong jet stream diving around the Southeast low will kick eastward around the base of the low over the next couple of days, pushing the eastern part of the low offshore. Together with the influence of slowly developing 90L, this should keep Joaquin moving on a north to northeast track Friday and Saturday. As Figure 3 suggests, a more northeastward motion would lend confidence in the current expectation of an offshore track, while any significant component of motion toward the west today and Saturday would keep open the door for the far-less-likely possibility of a track hooking around the Southeast upper low. We’ll be watching the 12Z Friday model guidance closely and will have more on the forecast for Joaquin in our afternoon update.


Figure 4. Projected rainfall (in inches) for the 72-hour period from 12Z (8 am EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015, to Monday, October 5. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Epic rainfall likely for South Carolina
The latest 3-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for 10 – 15″ inches of rain for the majority of South Carolina, including the cities of Charleston and Columbia.

This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a “Predecessor Rain Event” (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. The PRE can develop well to the left or right of the eventual track of the tropical cyclone. Slow-moving Hurricane Joaquin is perfectly positioned to transport a strong low-level flow of super-moist tropical air that has water vapor evaporated from record-warm ocean waters north of the Bahamas westwards into the Southeast U.S. Once this moisture hits land, it will encounter a cut-off upper low pressure system aloft, with a surface front beneath it, which will lift the moist air, cooling it, and forcing epic amounts of rainfall to fall. The air will also be moving up in elevation from the coast to the Piedmont and Appalachians, which lifts the air and facilitates even more precipitation. Satellite imagery is already hinting at development of this connection of moisture between Joaquin and the Southeast low and frontal system.


Figure 5. The maximum rainfall predicted to fall in any 24-hour period during the 5-day period from 5 am EDT October 2 to 5 am EDT October 7, according to a high-resolution Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model run done by MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) In some areas of North Carolina and South Carolina, 24-hour rainfall amounts one would expect to fall only once in a thousand years are predicted. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/ or on their Facebook page.

Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur.  According to NOAA’s Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical “recurrence interval” of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 17.1″, 17.8″, and 14.2″, respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 14.8″, 15.9″, and 12.5″, respectively.

The storm to beat in South Carolina is Tropical Storm Jerry of 1995, which dumped up to 18.51″ of rain over a small region of Southwest SC. The storm to beat in nearby eastern North Carolina is Hurricane Floyd, which dumped prodigious amounts of rain in mid-September 1999, less than a month after Hurricane Dennis had drenched the region. Floyd produced a broad stripe of 15″ – 20″ rains, with a maximum total of 24.06″ at a site five miles north of Southport, NC (about 30 miles east of the NC/SC border). To get such widespread multi-day totals outside of a tropical cyclone would be a monumental feat.  Averaged across the state as a whole, the wettest three calendar months in South Carolina weather history are July 1916 (14.41″), September 1924 (13.16″), and September 1928 (12.70″). All of these were related to tropical cyclones passing through or near the state. If the NWS precipitation forecasts are in the right ballpark, then the first few days of October 2015 might approach or even exceed these all-time monthly records for the entire state–without any help from a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm!

Texas and Oklahoma have already notched their wettest months on record (by far) this past May, and Illinois had its second-wettest month on record in June. Our warming climate is making intense short-term rains (such as the highest 1-day totals) even heavier in many parts of the United States and the world, although less research has been done on trends in monthly rainfall.

For more on the science of extremely heavy rainfall, see Bob Henson’s May 2015 post, The Rains of May and the Science of Recurrence Intervals.


Figure 6. Projected maximum flood category for the 24-hour period from noon EDT Friday, October 2, through Saturday, October 3, 2015. The worst impacts today through Saturday are expected through the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Strong on-shore winds along the mid-Atlantic coast due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Joaquin and a strong high pressure system over the Northeast U.S. were creating storm surge heights of 2 – 3′ in many locations, and over 3′ on Virginia’s Delmarva Peninsula. Image credit: Hal Needham.

Long-duration coastal flooding under way
The combination of Hurricane Joaquin, the Southeast U.S. low, and a strong ridge well to the north is leading to an unusually prolonged period of steady onshore flow and high surf along the U.S. East Coast from New Jersey southward to North Carolina. The highest-impact coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected along the Virginia and Delaware coast, including Ocean City, MD, and the Hampton Roads area of VA, which includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wakefield, VA, NWS office is calling for several rounds of moderate to severe coastal flooding through the weekend. See the latest blog post from storm-surge expert Hal Needham for more details on this event.

We’ll have an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Sunday, October 04, 2015
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

**A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT** As Hurricane Joaquin’s makes its approach, winds increase tropical storm force to storm force this afternoon with a period of hurricane force winds, especially in the west, this evening into the night. Joaquin’s closest point of approach remains near 60 miles, with slow improvement during Monday.

Today –

Winds southeasterly 30 to 40 knots gusts to 50 knots, increasing 40 to 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots later in the afternoon…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Building southerly swells… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 18 ft, building…  Sunrise: 7:14 am.

Tonight –

Winds southerly 40 to 50 knots gusts to 60 knots, increasing 55 to 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots, mainly in the west and in elevated areas, decreasing slowly and veering southwesterly overnight…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Southerly swells building high… Seas inside the reef 3 to 7 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 35 ft…  Sunset: 7:00 pm.

Monday –

Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 knots gusts to 45 knots, decreasing 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots by evening, further decreasing 18 to 24 knots with stronger gusts overnight…  Isolated to scattered showers, becoming isolated during the day, with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 20 ft, decreasing during the afternoon inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 9 to 15 ft…  Sunrise: 7:15 am; Sunset: 6:59 pm.

Tuesday –

Winds southwesterly 16 to 22 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the morning…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 11 ft…  Sunrise: 7:16 am; Sunset: 6:57 pm.

Wednesday –

Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the afternoon…  Isolated to scattered showers with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:56 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 12 to 18 knots…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:55 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 2:30 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 2:57 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 9:14 pm this evening: 0.4m/1.3ft, 9:20 am Monday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 26.9°C/80.4°F
Meteorologist: Fred Byrley, Observer: Chris Black

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 021452

WTNT21 KNHC 041450
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT……. 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 200SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There may be more warnings here: METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh 161500Z 20.1N 146.0E, moving NW at 09 knots (JMA) – Published 16 Sept 2015 1616Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

Tropical Storm Krovanh

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Tropical Storm Krovanh

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1520

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

STS 1520 (KROVANH)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 16 September 2015

<Analyses at 16/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°05′(20.1°)
E146°00′(146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 17/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20′(21.3°)
E144°30′(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 17/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°35′(22.6°)
E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°35′(25.6°)
E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°05′(29.1°)
E145°05′(145.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2015.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/20W_161132sair.jpg

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 20.0N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 146.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 21.2N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 22.5N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.2N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 25.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 29.4N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 36.9N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 145.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 160E 36N 151E 40N 151E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 31N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 46N 150E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 172E ENE SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 167E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 37N 120E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 42N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 38N 145E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 62N 153E ESE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 123E TO 28N 126E 30N 129E 30N 131E 31N 132E
32N 137E 33N 143E 32N 150E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1520 KROVANH (1520) 980 HPA AT 19.9N 146.4E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1520 KROVANH (1520) 980 HPA
AT 20.1N 146.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 21.3N 144.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 22.6N 143.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

CANADA (Newfoundland): Tropical Storm Henri 11/1800Z nr 39.4 N 58.5 W, moving NNE 16 knots (CHC) – Published 11 Sept 2015 1905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Henri

Weak tropical storm Henri forecast to affect offshore NEWFOUNDLAND, CANADA waters tonight and Saturday (ADT) (CHC)

…HENRI LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC…NHC FL

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA

2:45 PM ADT Friday 11 September 2015
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND

For tropical storm Henri.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

Weak tropical storm Henri forecast to affect offshore waters tonight and Saturday.

1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.

Location: 39.4 north 58.5 west.

About 900 kilometres south-southwest of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/hour.

Present movement: north at 30 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 1008 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

It continues to appear that Henri will be primarily a marine system moving south of Newfoundland. Closest approach to land will be the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland. There is a possibility that the system might dissipate as it moves away from the warm gulf stream waters which would result in very little impact.

A. Wind.

Wind is not likely to be an issue if the track stays offshore. If Henri tracks close to or over land there may be some gusty winds near 70 km/h over portions of the Avalon but not likely to be of concern for most areas unless the system strengthens more than expected tonight.

B. Rainfall.

Southeast Newfoundland could receive a bout of heavy rain early Saturday. It is still difficult to say how much rain may fall from it because it will depend on the storm structure overnight. Amounts of 20 to 40 millimetres are likely over far-Southeast Newfoundland early Saturday.

C. Surge/waves.

Some moderate surf could develop over southern coastal Newfoundland early Saturday if the system strengthens but this is unlikely.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Interests in eastern maritime waters and Southern Newfoundland waters should keep an eye on these forecasts for updated predictions. The system will bring gale force winds starting this evening and continuing into Saturday. The highest winds will be near and south of the storm track from the Laurentian Fan into the Grand Banks. Sea state of 3 to 5 metres will develop Saturday.

Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

– forecast position, central pressure table.

– strength and predicted wind radii table.

– hurricane track information map.

– technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty/patton

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

FXCN31 CWHX 111800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.53 PM ADT
FRIDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2015.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT, TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 N
AND LONGITUDE 58.5 W, ABOUT 496 NAUTICAL MILES OR 919 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB. HENRI IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS (30 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 11 3.00 PM 39.4N 58.5W 1008 35 65
SEP 11 9.00 PM 41.2N 57.7W 1007 35 65
SEP 12 3.00 AM 43.2N 56.3W 1006 35 65
SEP 12 9.00 AM 44.9N 54.5W 1005 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 3.00 PM 46.7N 51.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 9.00 PM 47.5N 48.4W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 3.00 AM 47.7N 44.1W 1002 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTRE AND THE
NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW INCREASING. MAXIMUM WINDS TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS ARE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE CENTRE.

B. PROGNOSTIC

STRONG RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL DIRECT THE STORM NORTHWARD THEN
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. HENRI SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SATURDAY AND MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 35 KT AS HENRI
ENTERS THE LAURENTIAN FAN AND PERSIST AS IT CROSSES NEWFOUNDLAND
WATERS.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
11/18Z 120 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/00Z 120 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/06Z 120 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/12Z 105 180 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/18Z 100 180 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13/00Z 60 180 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY/PATTON

Canadian Hurricane Centre symbolLegend

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 37 to 62 kilometres per hourTropical Depression

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 118 kilometres per hourHurricane

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 63 to 117 kilometres per hourTropical Storm

Icon for a storm system that used to be tropical but has since lost most of its tropical characteristicsPost-Tropical Storm

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 111455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015

…HENRI LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…38.0N 59.4W
ABOUT 680 MI…1095 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 59.4 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). An increase
in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Sunday with some additional acceleration.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Henri is forecast to become post-tropical on Saturday,
however, Henri could dissipate later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2015 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HENRI (AL08) currently located near 38.0 N 59.4 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1455

WTNT23 KNHC 111455
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 59.4W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 59.4W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 41.0N 57.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 44.9N 54.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 48.0N 48.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…60NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 50.0N 42.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 59.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

CANADA

Region(s) with marine warnings in effect:
Arctic – Eastern Arctic
Arctic – Western Arctic
Atlantic – Maritimes
Atlantic – Newfoundland
Great Lakes – Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
Great Lakes – Lake Huron
Great Lakes – Lake Superior
Hudson – Hudson Bay
Mackenzie – Mackenzie River
Pacific – Georgia Basin
Pacific – South Coast
Prairies – Manitoba Lakes
St. Lawrence – St. Lawrence River

There are more warnings here:  METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Severe Tropical Storm 1517 Kilo downgraded to LOW: 11/1200Z 43N 148E, moving N 25 knots (JMA) – Published 11 Sept 2015 1905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Kilo

….downgraded to Low Pressure Area (LOW or LPA) (JMA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1517-00

JPwarn

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

LOW
Issued at 12:35 UTC, 11 September 2015

<Analyses at 11/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
LOW
Center position N43°00′(43.0°)
E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 980hPa

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm KILO (03C) currently located near 38.5 N 147.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 111200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW FORMER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1517 KILO (1517) 980 HPA
AT 43N 148E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 43N 153E 38N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 40N 151E 38N 149E 36N 142E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 49N 150E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 54N 153E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 142E 42N 143E 51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 45N 180E 40N
170E 37N 156E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 45N 138E NE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 41N 138E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 165E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 45N 167E SE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 115E TO 33N 121E 36N 126E 36N 129E 36N
132E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan: Severe Tropical Storm Etau (18W) 08/1500Z 32.1N 138.2E, moving N at 19 Knots (JMA) – Updated 08 Sept 2015 1518Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Etau (1518, 18W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1518-00 8

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

STS 1518 (ETAU)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 8 September 2015

<Analyses at 08/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N32°05′(32.1°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW170km(90NM)
<Estimate for 08/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N32°25′(32.4°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 08/21 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N33°50′(33.8°)
E137°40′(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area NE130km(70NM)
SW90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E136°35′(136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/09 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°35′(36.6°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 120km(65NM)
<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°40′(37.7°)
E134°20′(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 18W (Etau) Warning #08
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1815

WTPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 31.2N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.2N 138.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 34.8N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 37.4N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 38.3N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 39.9N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 32.1N 138.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 03C (KILO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ETAU (18W) currently located near 31.2 N 138.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201518W

OTHER REPORTS

Around 73,000 people were instructed to evacuate their homes in Hamamatsu, Shizuoka Prefecture, on Tuesday as an approaching typhoon brought heavy rain to the area in central Japan.

Typhoon Etau is located south of the Japanese archipelago and moving north. It is likely to come close to Japan on Wednesday morning and possibly make landfall, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The agency has already issued heavy rain warnings for parts of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Shizuoka and Aichi prefectures, and is alerting people to severe rain over a swath of the country from Tokyo and its surrounding region to the main island of Kyushu in southwestern Japan. If the typhoon moves northward on its projected course, it may make landfall on the Kii Peninsula at some point. At 12 p.m., the typhoon was located about 430 kilometers west-northwest of Chichijima Island in the Ogasawara island chain, moving north at a speed of 25 km per hour. The storm was packing winds of up to 126 kph with an atmospheric pressure of 990 hectopascals at its center. In Hamamatsu, some homes appear to have been flooded because of the rain, according to the municipal government. Some roads have also been closed to traffic due to flooding.

Tuesday, 08 September, 2015 at 11:07 (11:07 AM) UTC RSOE

BBC Japan hit by severe flooding and landslides – 10 Sept 2015 (GMT/UTC)

Widespread flooding and landslides in north-east Japan have forced more than 90,000 people to abandon their homes.

The city of Joso, north of the capital, Tokyo, was hit by a wall of water after the Kinugawa River burst its banks. Helicopter rescue teams have been plucking people from rooftops.

One person has been reported missing in the region and at least 12 are injured.

The rains come a day after Typhoon Etau brought winds of up to 125km/h (78mph) to central Aichi prefecture.

“This is a scale of downpour that we have not experienced before. Grave danger could be imminent,” the chief forecaster at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Takuya Deshimaru, told an emergency press conference earlier on Thursday.

The hardest-hit areas have been Ibaraki and Tochigi prefectures. Japan’s Meteorological Agency had put both regions on its highest level of alert.

Television footage from Joso in Ibaraki showed people clinging to the rooftops before helicopter rescue teams winched them to safety.

Entire homes and cars were carried away on the torrent as the Kinugawa River burst its banks after two days of heavy rainfall.

In Tochigi, more than 500mm (19 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours in places, according to local public broadcaster NHK, which said that was about double what normally falls there throughout the whole of September.

Parts of central Tochigi have seen almost 60cm of rain since Monday evening, breaking records.

Many other areas of eastern and north-eastern Japan have also been issued weather warnings, including Fukushima prefecture, home to the still-damaged nuclear plant hit in 2011’s earthquake and tsunami.

The downpour overwhelmed the site’s drainage pumps, a spokesman for operator Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco) said. Huge volumes of water, used to cool the plant’s crippled reactors, are being stored at the site.

Landslides and flooding

The Fire and Disaster Management Agency said 15 people had been injured across Japan. Two were elderly women seriously injured after being knocked over by strong winds.

Local media reported one person missing after a landslide hit a house in Kanuma, Tochigi prefecture.

Some areas had power cuts and transport was disrupted, with many air and train services cancelled or delayed. Some roads were also closed.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the authorities were doing their best.

“The government will stand united and do its best to deal with the disaster… by putting its highest priority on people’s lives,” he told reporters.

Last month, powerful Typhoon Goni hit Japan’s southernmost main island of Kyushu, killing at least one person and injuring 70 others.

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15090821

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081500

WTJP32 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1518 ETAU (1518) 985 HPA
AT 32.1N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 35.4N 136.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 37.7N 134.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: TD 7 becomes Tropical Storm Grace – 06/0900Z 12.4N 28.5W, moving W 12 knots (NHC) – Updated 06 Sept 2015 0915Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Grace

….GRACE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC……NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

084045W5_NL_sm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 060839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015

…GRACE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…12.4N 28.5W
ABOUT 390 MI…630 KM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H12.4N 28.5W
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 28.5 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through
Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 36 to 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Other Reports

TD 7 Forms in the Eastern Atlantic; Likely to Become Tropical Storm Grace
By Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:46 AM EDT on September 05, 2015
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground

Tropical Depression Seven spun into life on Saturday morning in the waters a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde islands in the Eastern Atlantic, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Grace by Sunday.

See more: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3102

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA2 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0751

WONT50 LFPW 060751
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 399, SUNDAY 6 SEPTEMBER 2015 AT 0745 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SUNDAY 6 AT 00 UTC.
NEW LOW EXPECTED 1009 37N43W BY 06/12 UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AND
EXPECTED 1001 43N31W BY 07/12 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM GRACE 1006 OVER WEST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 12.8N 27.5W
BY 06/03 UTC, MOVING WEST 12 KT AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING.

ALTAIR.
FROM 07/06 UTC TO 07/12 UTC AT LEAST.
SOUTH LOCALLY 8 IN WEST.

SIERRA LEONE.
FROM 06/09 UTC TO 07/12 UTC AT LEAST.
CYCLONIC 8 IN WEST, INCREASING 8 OR 9 AT END. GUSTS.
BECOMING HIGH.

BT
*

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR
24.1N 43.1W. FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…OR 320
DEGREES…09 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ARE
BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC…AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT21
KNHC…AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N
BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 28N
BETWEEN 41W AND 46W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 12.8N
27.5W. GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST…OR 280 DEGREES…12
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE BEING ISSUED
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC…AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE
BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC…AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 09N34W…MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
65W/66W…FROM PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD…MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD…WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA…AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N68W…TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W
AND 73W IN SOUTHERN HAITI.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W TO 15N20W AND 15N22W…AND FROM 12N30W TO 12N33W AND
11N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N34W TO 09N43W 10N50W AND
10N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 05N TO
11N FROM 17W EASTWARD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

…DISCUSSION…

FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO…INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N81W SOUTH
CAROLINA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER…TO THE TAMPA FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA…TO 24N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO…TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD…THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
90W EASTWARD…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO…FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W…TO 27N70W…ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS…TO 25N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO…ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 22N
NORTHWARD FROM 93W EASTWARD. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL
SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR
TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1015
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE
SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES…FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL
SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR
TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND
07N78W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER…INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG IN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 09N77W TO 13N83W. THIS IS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC…ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…ARE 0.69 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

…HISPANIOLA…

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA…AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N68W…TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W
AND 73W IN SOUTHERN HAITI.

CURRENT CONDITIONS…IN HAITI…CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W IN
SOUTHERN HAITI. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO…IN SANTIAGO…AND IN PUERTO PLATA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR
SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA…WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN A COL.
TWO INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED…AND TROPICAL STORM GRACE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N30W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W…AWAY FROM T.D. FRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA II

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Atlantic Ocean/ Cape Verde Islands: Hurricane Fred CAT1 31/1800Z 16.9N 24.2W, moving NW 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 31 Aug 2015 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Fred

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Verde Islands

…FRED BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS…
…CENTER PASSING VERY NEAR SAO NICOLAU ISLAND……NHC FL

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Hurricane Center

175010W5_NL_sm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311749
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
200 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

…FRED BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS…
…CENTER PASSING VERY NEAR SAO NICOLAU ISLAND…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.9N 24.2W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM NNE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ESE OF RIBEIRA GRANDE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Verde Islands

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 24.2 West. Fred is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred is expected to pass near or over the northwestern
Cape Verde Islands through early tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early tonight
while Fred passes near the northwestern Cape Verde Islands. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to
spread across the northwestern Cape Verde Islands through this
evening and continue into the overnight hours.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory,
and in some elevated locations can be even greater.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains are likely to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane FRED (AL06) currently located near 16.4 N 23.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cape Verde
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201506N

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 24.2W AT 31/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 20 NM NNE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 50 NM ESE OF RIBEIRA GRANDE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-
18N BETWEEN 22W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N-
21N BETWEEN 15W-20W…AND FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 22W-28W. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N57W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH RELATIVELY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING
BETWEEN 55W-63W…WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-17N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 54W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 19N75W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
30N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-
78W.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N28W TO A 1013 MB LOW
NEAR 07N38W TO 08N45W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE FRED…ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 40W-43W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SW TO OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION TO A BROAD BASE OVER
THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY NEAR 26N100W. THE TROUGHING IS
PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAREST TO THE MID-LEVEL 500 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO…MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF N OF 22N W OF 93W. FARTHER EAST…A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 27N83W.
THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N85W
WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING N-NE TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION NEAR 30N83W…AND SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING…SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
82W-84W…AND S OF 23N BETWEEN 83W-87W…INCLUDING THE
APPROACHES TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE…GENERALLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLC AND SE
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND
MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT…SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-88W…INCLUDING FAR WESTERN
CUBA…AND THE FAR EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE…THE
OTHER MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IMPACTING THE BASIN IS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION NEAR
18N75W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 76W IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMAICA AND ACROSS AN AREA SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE VICINITY OF 16N72W. FINALLY…THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE…CURRENTLY ALONG 59W…IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

…HISPANIOLA…
CURRENTLY…MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DUE LARGELY TO RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT AND
OVERALL STABILITY PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 59W WILL APPROACH AND INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N71W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 29N77W
THEN SW OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 78W-80W. OTHERWISE…THE MAIN FEATURE
INFLUENCING THE SW NORTH ATLC IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N69W. FARTHER EAST…THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N45W…HOWEVER TO THE
NW A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N56W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 29N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 52W-56W. FINALLY…AS MENTIONED
ABOVE…THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EASTERN ATLC IS HURRICANE FRED AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

METAREA2 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 311522

WONT50 LFPW 311522
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 386, MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015 AT 1520 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, MONDAY 31 AT 12 UTC.
HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED 16.4N 23.7W AT 31/1500UTC, MOVING NW AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 HPA. POSITION BY 01/00
UTC: 17.3N 25.1W, WITH MAX WINDS 70 KT, 18.6N 26.9W BY 01/12 UTC, AND
19.6N 28.8W BY 02/00 UTC.
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N23W 07N31W 6N41W.
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE.
CONTINUING TO 02/00 UTC AT LEAST.
HURRICANE 12 (75 KT). GUSTS 90 KT.
HIGH OR VERY HIGH.

SOUTHWEST OF CAP TIMIRIS, NORTH OF SIERRA LEONE.
CONTINUING TO 31/18 UTC.
LOCALLY SOUTHERLY 8 OR 9.
HIGH.

BT
*

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA II

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Caribbean: Tropical Storm Erika 28/1800Z near 17.7N 70.2W, moving W at 15.6 knots (NHC) – Updated 28 Aug 2015 2035z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Erika

…ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

173843W5_NL_sm

000
WTNT35 KNHC 281737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

…ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.7N 70.2W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has
been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several
hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being
later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and
northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as
Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through
Saturday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the
Dominican Republic has been reporting wind gusts of 40 mph (64 km/h)
for the past few hours.

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
and surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across
portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across Haiti this afternoon, the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later this afternoon and
tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday
night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday.
An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Local Statements  

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2015 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERIKA (AL05) currently located near 17.9 N 71.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Dominican Republic
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haiti
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    the Bahamas
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201505N 28

Other Reports
Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog
By Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:23 AM EDT on August 27, 2015
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground
Map of the Caribbean by the CIA World Factbook

Map of the Caribbean by the CIA World Factbook

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm2

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1444

WTNT25 KNHC 281444 RRB
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 69.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…130NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 69.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Guadeloupe/ Antigua and Barbuda/ Dominica: Hurricane Danny at 20/1500Z near 12.5N 44.8W, moving WNW at 10 knots (NHC) – Published 20 Aug 2015 2007z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Danny

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather Service144804W5_NL_sm
000
WTNT34 KNHC 201447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

…DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI…1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Danny
was located by satellite near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 44.8
West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Danny is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1446

WTNT24 KNHC 201446
TCMAT4

HURRICANE DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 44.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 44.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 44.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There may be more warnings here: METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South China Sea/ China: Tropical Storm Kujira (08W) 21/1200Z at 16.6N 111.3E almost stationary (JMA) – Updated 210615 1315z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Kujira 08W
(upgraded by JMA from TD at 09:50 UTC 21 June 2015)

Hainan Island and western Guangdong in China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Japan Meteorological agency

1508-00

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15062115

TS 1508 (KUJIRA)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 21 June 2015

<Analyses at 21/09 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N16°25′(16.4°)
E111°20′(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 22/09 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°40′(18.7°)
E111°10′(111.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E110°10′(110.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°55′(22.9°)
E109°20′(109.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

Hong Kong Observatory

Tropical Depression KUJIRA
at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Position: 16.5 N, 111.3 E (about 710 km south-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 55 km/h
Tropical Depression Kujira will intensify slightly, and move north in the general direction of Hainan Island and western Guangdong in the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Tropical Cyclone Track at 17:00 HKT 21 June 2015

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 22 June 2015 19.0 N 111.1 E Tropical Storm 75 km/h
17:00 HKT 23 June 2015 21.2 N 110.1 E Tropical Storm 65 km/h
17:00 HKT 24 June 2015 23.7 N 108.8 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
17:00 HKT 25 June 2015 25.9 N 107.4 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

Download 256km Radar from HKO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 08W (Kujira) Warning #04
Issued at 21/0900Z

wp0815

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/08W_210532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 16.4N 111.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 111.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 17.4N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 18.8N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 20.2N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 21.4N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 23.3N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 111.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 210600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 141E
42N 144E 47N 152E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 160E 30N
140E 37N 152E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 32N 140E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 52N 152E NE 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 38N 161E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 34N 124E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 40N 134E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 57N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 37N 149E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 168E NE 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 57N 171E ENE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 110E TO 28N 116E 26N 126E 28N 135E 32N 140E
31N 147E 30N 156E 33N 163E 38N 167E 38N 171E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1508 KUJIRA (1508) 996 HPA AT 16.4N 111.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Hong Kong Observatory

Bulletin issued at 18:30 HKT 21/Jun/2015
Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 210900 UTC, Tropical Depression Kujira (1508) with central pressure 992 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of one six point five degrees north (16.5 N) one one one point three degrees east (111.3 E) and is forecast to move north at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 120 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 220900 UTC
One nine point zero degrees north (19.0 N)
One one one point one degrees east (111.1 E)
Maximum winds 40 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 230900 UTC
Two one point two degrees north (21.2 N)
One one zero point one degrees east (110.1 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 240900 UTC
Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N)
One zero eight point eight degrees east (108.8 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 250900 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1508 KUJIRA (1508) 992 HPA
AT 16.6N 111.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.2N 111.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.5N 110.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.2N 108.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Other warnings can be found at

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Tropical Depression BILL continues to track through N Arkansas, leaving 2 dead in Oklahoma – Flash flood warnings current – Published 190615 1600z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression BILL

FLASH FLOOD & FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENT (Scroll down for more)

Authorities in central Oklahoma have recovered the body of an 80-year-old woman from a car partially submerged in floodwaters. Pottawatomie County Undersheriff Travis Palmer said, the rescue crews in a boat removed the body Thursday evening. They were responding to a report of a vehicle on its side in a flooded area near Macomb, about 45 miles southeast of Oklahoma City. Palmer says it appeared the woman ignored barricades and tried to drive through floodwaters that rose as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill dropped up to 10 inches of rain on parts of the state. The woman wasn’t immediately identified. The state medical examiner will rule on the cause of death. Earlier Thursday, authorities recovered the body of a 2-year-old boy who was swept from his father’s arms by floodwaters in Ardmore a day before. More than 5,000 young people at a Baptist church camp in southern Oklahoma are being sent home early as the nearby Washita River is expected to reach historic levels. Baptist General Convention of Oklahoma Director Anthony Jordan announced Thursday that campers at Falls Creek near Davis are being sent home, although he said the camp was not directly at risk of flooding. Jordan said in a statement that camp officials were concerned about their ability to provide general maintenance and trash service because of flooding in nearby areas. Jordan says camp activities are being suspended for the rest of the week. Falls Creek spokesman James Swain says there were about 5,400 campers at Falls Creek this week. Authorities have recovered the body of a 2-year-old Oklahoma boy who was swept away by floodwaters while the remnants of a tropical storm were moving through the state.

Ardmore police Capt. Eric Hamblin says Jeremiah Mayer’s body was found Thursday afternoon in a creek about 30 yards from where he was last seen after being swept from his father’s arms late Wednesday. Hamblin says the father was fleeing his home on foot when the floodwater overtook him and swept the boy away. He says the father had to be rescued from the water, which rose 12 to 15 feet in less than an hour. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill dumped about 10 inches of rain on the area overnight. Authorities have partly reopened a section of a major highway connecting Oklahoma City and Dallas but say it could be days before it can be completely reopened due to a rockslide and high water. The Oklahoma Highway Patrol says northbound traffic on Interstate 35 is being detoured for a four-mile stretch while transportation crews and contractors look to stabilize the rock face next to the road. A tropical depression dumped an estimated 10 inches of rain on the area and helped trigger the rockslide. It says the northbound closure through the Arbuckle Mountains could last for several days is urging motorists to use alternate routes on U.S. Highways 81 or 69. Meanwhile, the agency has reopened the southbound lanes of I-35. Traffic is heavily congested.
Friday, 19 June, 2015 at 10:36 (10:36 AM) UTC RSOE

Tropical Depression BILL Public Advisory from NHC

000
WTNT32 KWNH 191436
TCPAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.3N 91.4W
ABOUT 117 MILES…188 KM…NE OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…25 MPH…40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS SECTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE…FLOOD WARNINGS
EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS…NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA…LOUISIANA…AND INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS…MISSOURI…AND
ILLINOIS. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST…FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS…INDIANA…AND OHIO. FLASH FLOOD AND
FLOOD WATCHES ARE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND OHIO VALLEY.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH…AND LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AS IT TRACKS
WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION…MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH TWO SEPARATE
AXES OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. TO THE NORTH OF BILL…MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT. NEAR THE CENTER OF BILL…LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WAS
BEING REPORTED. REPORTED WIND GUSTS NEAR THE CENTER OF BILL WERE
MEASURED AT 26 MPH OR LESS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH…40 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS
——-
RAINFALL…BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS OF ARKANSAS…INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI. 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WHILE 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE MORE LIKELY
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THESE
RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING…PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL TOTALS
—————
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM CDT

…ARKANSAS…
ROGERS 2.1 SE 4.42
DELIGHT 2.2 WNW 3.74
SPRINGDALE 6.4 WSW 3.31
SILOAM SPRINGS/SMITH FIELD 3.24
FAYETTEVILLE/SPRINGDALE 3.12
HARRISON/BOONE CO. ARPT 2.94
BENTONVILLE 2.82
TEXARKANA RGNL ARPT 2.67
EUREKA SPRINGS 4.0 WNW 2.62
SPRINGFIELD/CAPITAL ARPT 2.49
MOUNTAIN HOME/BAXTER CO. ARPT 1.93
LONOKE 1.2 SSW 1.74
EVERTON 2.1 N 1.67
ST. JOE 2.7 WNW 1.64
ATKINS 1.0 NE 1.51

…ILLINOIS…
SULLIVAN 3 S 4.89
ALLENVILLE 1 S 4.50
ELBURN 4.45
SOUTH CAROL STREAM 4.11
BATAVIA 3.87
ROCHELLE 3.43
MANHATTAN 5 SSE 3.26
OAK PARK 1 SE 3.07
MATTOON 3.03
DIXON 2 SW 2.64
NEWTON 2.58
TUSCOLA 2.29
NORTH AURORA 2 E 2.23
STE. MARIE 2.11
GENEVA 2.10

…INDIANA…
MOROCCO 3.70
NEW ROSS 2 E 2.87
ANDERSON 5 NW 2.30
INDIANAPOLIS INTL ARPT 1.92
EVANSVILLE RGNL ARPT 1.81
CHESTERTON 1.70

…KANSAS…
COFFEYVILLE MUNI ARPT 3.64
COLLYER 2.1 SE 1.45

…LOUISIANA…
SHREVEPORT RGNL ARPT 4.79
BOSSIER CITY 6.7 NNW 3.84
SHREVEPORT 5.3 SSE 2.42
PLAIN DEALING 3.0 ESE 2.13
RUSTON 1.6 NW 1.85

…MISSOURI…
SPRINGFIELD 7 S 5.50
MARSHFIELD 3.6 S 5.48
NIXA 2.7 SSW 4.72
NIANGUA 4.37
SOUTH SPRINGFIELD 3.10
COLUMBIA RGNL ARPT 2.94
LITTON AGRI-SCI CNTR 2.86
JOPLIN RGNL ARPT 2.60
WHITESIDE 2 E 2.50
FORNEY AAF/FORT LEONARDWOOD 2.47
MIDDLETOWN 4 SW 2.34
JEFFERSON CITY ARPT 2.27
KAISER/LAKE OZARK 2.08

…OKLAHOMA…
HEALDTON 3 E 12.53
NEWPORT 11.52
BURNEYVILLE 10.09
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW 8.63
RINGLING 8.27
PAULS VALLEY MUNI APRT 7.35
SULPHUR 7.09
MACOMB 5.2 ESE 5.82
MARIETTA 2.8 SW 5.57
ADA 0.3 NNW 5.45
WEWOKA 7.4 NNW 5.30
NORMAN 3.4 SE 3.61
OKLAHOMA CITY 11.5 S 2.64
MUSKOGEE/DAVIS FIELD AIRPORT 2.55
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT 1.51

…TEXAS…
MONTAGUE 12.50
GANADO 1.5 W 11.77
KIRBYVILLE 1.5 SE 9.51
SEALY 0.3 WNW 9.17
ALICE INTL ARPT 9.03
EL CAMPO 0.5 ENE 8.57
VICTORIA 9 ESE 7.73
ROCKPORT 1.3 WSW 7.51
MANOR 4.7 WSW 7.30
WF SAN JACINTO 7.06
LUFKIN/ANGELINA CO ARPT 6.98
NAVASOTA 8 SE 6.73
FLOUR BLUFF 7 SW 6.59
ARANSAS PASS 1 SSE 6.46
SAN FELIPE 1.0 WNW 6.15
CORPUS CHRISTI 6.14
AUSTIN 4.2 ESE 5.80
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 2.91
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 2.51
FORT WORTH NAS 2.34
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER FANNING

FORECAST POSITIONS
——————
INITIAL 19/1500Z 36.3N 91.4W
12HR VT 20/0000Z 36.9N 89.8W…TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 20/1200Z 37.9N 87.0W…TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 82.4W…POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 21/1200Z 39.2N 77.8W…POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
$$

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Hurricane Carlos 03E CAT1 14/1200Z 15.8N 100.3W, stationary (NHC) – Updated 140615 1420Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Carlos 03E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

…CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO…….NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Acapulco Radar, MX

Acapulco Radar, MX

National Weather ServiceaNational Hurricane Center

114543W5_NL_sm c14

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 141141
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

…CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.8N 100.3W
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI…315 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 100.3 West. Carlos has been
nearly stationary for the past few hours. However, a turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. However, some restrengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
Monday night or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with
maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 03E (Carlos) Warning #15
Issued at 14/1000Z

ep0315 c14

WTPN31 PHNC 141000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 15.6N 100.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 100.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 16.3N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 16.9N 102.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 17.5N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 18.0N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 20.0N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 21.5N 105.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 23.5N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
141000Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 100.5W. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 74 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.//
NNNN

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Jun, 2015 9:00 GMT

Hurricane CARLOS (03E) currently located near 15.8 N 100.3 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Acapulco (17.0 N, 99.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 45 hours
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

201506132056_ep_graphicast c14

000
FZPN03 KNHC 140937
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUN 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUN 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUN 16.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 15.8N 100.3W 980 MB AT 0900 UTC JUN 14
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 80 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
96W AND 104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 16.9N 102.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM W
AND 75 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA
FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL..
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 18.0N 104.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 105 NM W AND 90 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS INLAND NEAR 20.0N 105.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOS OVER WATER NEAR 21.5N
105.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS INLAND NEAR 23.5N
106.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF 01N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8
FT IN N SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC SUN JUN 14…

.HURRICANE CARLOS…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM SE
AND 30 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N105W TO 05N115W. ITCZ FROM 05N115W TO
04N120W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

North Arabian Sea/ Pakistan/ Oman/ Iran/ India: Tropical Cyclone One: 070900Z POSITION nr 15.8N 68.4E, moving N at 5 knots (JTWC) – Published 070615 1200Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone One (01A)

Pakistan/ Oman/ Iran/ India be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 8 (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED  07.06.2015
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA)
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

sector-ir

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 01A (One) Warning #01
Issued at 07/0900Z

io0115

WTIO31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070600Z — NEAR 15.5N 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 68.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 16.8N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 18.2N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 19.7N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 21.0N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 22.5N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 23.6N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 24.3N 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH OF
KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

NOT AVAILABLE

METAREA IX

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Hurricane Blanca (02E) CAT2 070400Z POSITION nr 19.3N 110.4W, moving NNW 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 070615 0920Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Blanca 02E

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Guasave Radar Loop

Guasave Radar Loop

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083620W5_NL_sm B7

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 070837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.8N 110.8W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI…575 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.8 West. Blanca is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slight increase
in forward speed tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca will approach the southwest coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and move near or along the coast
tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical storm
tonight before it reaches the southwestern coast of the Baja
California peninsula. Blanca is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression Monday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
southern portion of the warning area by late this morning or early
this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions will then spread northward elsewhere
within the warning area tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 10 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
half of the state of Baja California, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches over Baja California Sur. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 02E (Blanca) Warning #26
Issued at 07/0400Z

ep0215 B7

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070000Z — NEAR 18.8N 110.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 110.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 20.4N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 22.4N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 24.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 26.4N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.9N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 110.4W.
HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM EAST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.//
NNNN

END

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2015 9:00 GMT

Hurricane BLANCA (02E) currently located near 19.8 N 110.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 B7

000
FZPN03 KNHC 070256
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN JUN 07 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUN 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUN 09.

.WARNINGS.
…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 19.2N 110.4W 952 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 07
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 130 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT…
390 NM SE QUADRANT…210 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…240 NM
SE QUADRANT…240 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 27N
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 22.4N 111.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
260 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 10
TO 15 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 103W AND
127W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 24.6N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 26.4N 113.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BLANCA NEAR 29.9N
114.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMNANT LOW OF ANDRES NEAR 18N120W 1007 MB DRIFTING SE. WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS MERGE WITH BLANCA.

.S OF 00N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 06N79W TO 10N100W TO 10N120W TO
00N120W…EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07…

.HURRICANE BLANCA…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 109W
AND 112W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
108W AND 114W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN
88W AND 100W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
104W AND 114W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
ITCZ FROM 11N130W TO 10N140W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Andres (01E) CAT2 weakens slightly (NHC). 311000Z POSITION nr 15.5N 117.5W, moving WNW 06 knots (JTWC) – Published 310515 1447Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Andres (01E)

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…..ANDRES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY…..NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083827W5_NL_sm A31
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
200 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

…ANDRES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.4N 117.4W
ABOUT 710 MI…1145 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 117.4 West. Andres is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected today, and this general motion should
continue through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0115.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
310600Z — NEAR 15.3N 117.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 117.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 15.8N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 16.3N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 16.8N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 17.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 19.0N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 19.5N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 19.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 117.5W.
HURRICANE 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2

000
FZPN03 KNHC 310941
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN MAY 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUN 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUN 02.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ANDRES NEAR 15.4N 117.4W 968 MB AT 0900 UTC MAY 31
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE
QUADRANT…90 NM SE QUADRANT…80 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
210 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 33 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM
OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 06N TO 23N BETWEEN 109W AND 125W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ANDRES NEAR 16.3N 119.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 08N TO 24N BETWEEN
113W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ANDRES NEAR 17.5N 122.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…90 NM NE QUADRANT AND
60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N AND 210
NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N
AND 210 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA S OF 25N TO A LINE FROM 06N117W TO 06N123W TO
12N134W BETWEEN 117W AND 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ANDRES NEAR 19.0N 125.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES NEAR 19.5N 127.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ANDRES NEAR 19.5N
128.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
18N134W TO 15N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY
IN MIXED E AND SW SWELL.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N102W 1008 MB. WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 12N104W 1006 MB. WITHIN 75 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 13N105W 1006 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST S OF 00N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 08N E OF 124W TO A LINE FROM 08N113W TO
03.4S100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S95W TO 04N110W TO
00N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO
14.5N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
15.5N95W TO 13N96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED NE
AND SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95.5W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0730 UTC SUN MAY 31…
.HURRICANE ANDRES…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN
110W TO 116W.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N102W 1008 MB…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180
NM SE AND S QUADRANTS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N119W TO 07N126W TO 10N137W TO
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG BETWEEN 60 NM AND 330 NM
SE OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 125W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Tropical Storm ANA: Tropical storm condx expected to reach portions of the coasts of NC & SC later today (NHC) – Published 090515 1710z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm ANA

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY…NHC FL

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091437
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…32.7N 77.9W
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should
monitor the progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 77.9 West. Ana is moving
toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north
and north-northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center
will be very near the coasts of South and North Carolina by
Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast as Ana moves over cooler waters close
to the coastline.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a
minimum central pressure of 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and are possible within the watch area, by this afternoon or
evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide
in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward
through South Carolina. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to
3 inches, with isolated amounts of 5 inches, over eastern portions
of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 May, 2015 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ANA (AL01) currently located near 32.7 N 77.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1437

WTNT21 KNHC 091437
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1500 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 77.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 77.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 33.2N 78.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.9N 78.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…100NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.9N 78.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 36.1N 77.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 40.0N 72.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 77.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Graphicast Atlantic

See also: METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Loyalty Islands/ Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) 120300Z POSITION near 20.7S 166.7E, moving ESE at 18 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120415 0905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Solo

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone SOLO

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 11 issued 0110 UTC Sunday 12 April 2015

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone SOLO

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am April 12 1 20.3S 166.0E 165
+6hr 6 am April 12 tropical low 21.1S 167.4E 195
+12hr 12 pm April 12 tropical low 22.1S 169.1E 220
+18hr 6 pm April 12 tropical low 23.1S 171.0E 250
+24hr 12 am April 13 tropical low 24.2S 173.3E 280
+36hr 12 pm April 13 tropical low 26.3S 178.1E 340
+48hr 12 am April 14 tropical low 28.4S 176.9W 400
+60hr 12 pm April 14 tropical low 31.9S 170.8W 485
+72hr 12 am April 15 tropical low 39.3S 161.5W 570

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

Z

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 12/0138 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.3S 166.0E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

SOLO IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS CYCLONE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES INTO A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SST. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LLCC WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH SUPPOSED
LLCC ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES FROM EDGE YIELDS DT=2.0, MET AND PAT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS IT.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 22.1S 169.1E MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 24.2S 173.3E MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 26.3S 178.1E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 28.4S 176.9E MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TC SOLO UNLESS IT RE-INTENSIFIES.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh2315 s12

 https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/23P_112332sams.jpg

WTPS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 20.2S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 165.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 22.3S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 24.8S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 166.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
FULLY EXPOSED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM KNES. ADDITIONALLY, NUMEROUS NEARBY 120000z SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE, INCLUDING STATIONS 91582 AND 91579, WITH
A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOTS REPORTED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CURRENTLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS) IS
STEADILY INCREASING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE REGION
ARE 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER, TC SOLO WILL SOON REACH SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS. FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 18 KNOTS AS TC
23P TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 15 FEET.
//
NNNN

TSR SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Apr, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SOLO (23P) currently located near 20.2 S 165.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 12/0100 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3
SOUTH 166.0 EAST AT 120000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.3S 166.0E AT 120000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
30 KNOTS BY 120600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.1S 169.1E AT 121200 UTC
AND NEAR 24.2S 173.3E AT 130000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL GALE WARNING ON TC SOLO UNLESS IT
RE-INTENSIFIES.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm BAVI / BETTY(1503) 170600Z nr 15.3N 135.4E, moving WNW at 13 knots (JMA) – Updated 170315 0820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Bavi (1503)(03W)/ “BETTY” in Philippines

…BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT….NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

wp201503_sat_anim BAVI 17

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1503-00 BAVI 17

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15031709

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 17 March 2015

<Analyses at 17/06 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N15°20′(15.3°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW280km(150NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N15°35′(15.6°)
E133°40′(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N16°05′(16.1°)
E131°55′(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity –
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°30′(16.5°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 17 March 2015 Satellite Image 
betty 15031700 bettysat 15031700

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BETTY” (BAVI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 17 March 2015

The Tropical Storm {BAVI} east of Bicol Region will enter The Philippine Area Of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon and will be named “BETTY”.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
1,530 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.4°N, 136.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: 24 hour (Tomorrow morning):
1,030 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
48 hour (Thursday morning):
640 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
72 hour (Friday morning):
270 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
No Public Storm Warning Signal

Estimated rainfall amount is from 2.5 – 7.5 mm per hour (light – moderate) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

The Tropical Storm is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM today.

 11  a.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

errorTrack1 BAVI 17
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170235
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

…TROPICAL STORM BAVI WEAKENING…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.3N 135.8E

ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST…290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.8 EAST…MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WESTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES…MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0315 BAVI 17

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_162332sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 170300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170000Z — NEAR 15.2N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 136.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 15.6N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 15.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 170600

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1503 BAVI (1503) 998 HPA
AT 15.3N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.6N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.1N 131.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.5N 129.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTPH RPMM 170000
TTT GALE WARNING 01

AT 0000 17 MARCH TROPICAL STORM [BAVI] {1503} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Further warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone PAM 17P CAT3 151500Z POSITION nr 34.2S 178.8E, moving SE at 20 Kts (JTWC) – Updated 150315 1448z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 17P (PAM)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201517_sat_anim Pam 15

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

New Zealand

Issued at 12:54am Monday 16 Mar 2015 (Local time)

UPDATE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM

At midnight Sunday tropical cyclone Pam was situated about 450km to the northeast of Auckland and 450km to the north of East Cape. It has already brought 70mm or rain to parts of Gisborne and 140 to 150 kilometer an hour wind gusts to exposed parts of Auckland and Northland.

It is expected to lie about 150km east of East Cape (northern Gisborne)by midday Monday,then move away from the New Zealand coastline towards the Chatham Islands.Strong southeast winds and rain are expected over much of the North Island today, along with extremely large seas about the east coast.Wind gusts of 160 km/h or more are possible about the eastern Bay of Plenty and northern parts of Gisborne.Winds of this strength are likely to cause damage to trees and powerlines and could lift roofs and make for hazardous driving conditions.A burst of heavy rain accompanies these winds, with 180-220 mm possible about the Gisborne ranges.Please refer to the latest severe weather warnings and watches issued by MetService for more information. The total combined waves (sea and swell)generated by cyclone Pam are expected to rise to 7-8m around the northern New Zealand coastline and even up to 9m around the northern Gisborne coast.
For any further information go to: http://www.metservice.com/national/home
The next update to this blog will be around midnight Sunday 15 March.
For further information please contact:
Duty Meteorologist 044700815
+++++++++++++

Cyclone Pam – Latest update 1am Monday 16th March

HORDUR THORDARSON, METSERVICE METEOROLOGIST

Sunday 16 March 2015 1:00am

Category 3 Cyclone Pam was lying near 34S 178.5E at midnight, or about 450 kilometres northeast of Auckland and 450 kilometres north of East Cape on a track to the south-southeast as shown on the image below.

Track

The effects of Cyclone Pam are already being felt in some areas. A wind gust to 150 kilometres per hour was observed near Kaeo in Northland and a gust of 144 kilometres an hour was observed at Channel Island between Coromandel Peninsula and Great Barrier Island this evening. Rain is becoming heavy in Gisborne and and 70mm have already accumulated in some areas there.

Rain radar at 11pm Sunday
Rain radar at 11pm Sunday

Pam is expected to be reclassified early this morning and will from then on be considered an extra tropical cyclone.

Infra red image at 11pm Sunday
Infra red image at 11pm Sunday

Why will it be re classified? The reason for this is that the nature of the system changes. A tropical cyclone derives its energy from latent heat released in strong deep convection. Warm moist air over a warm sea surface rises, condenses, warms further and continues to rise. This is the energy that intensifies and maintains a tropical cyclone. Once the cyclone moves south out of the tropics and over cooler waters this energy source decreases. Normally this will lead to a slow weakening of the system.

There is however a new energy source that becomes available to the storm as it moves out of the tropics. This energy comes from the difference between hot and cold air. If there is a large temperature difference over a relatively short distance this can be a powerful source of energy that re-energises the storm as it moves out of the tropics.

The main differences between a tropical cyclone and an extra tropical cyclone are:

Tropical Cyclone                                                Extra tropical cyclone

No fronts                                                             Fronts

Winds max close the centre                           Wind maximum well away front the centre

Driven by latent heat release                         Strong temperature gradients

Reclassification does not mean that “Pam” no longer poses any threat. Extremely strong wind gusts, heavy rain and phenomenal waves are still expected, and details can be found in http://www.metservice.com/warnings/home as well as in http://blog.metservice.com/ or http://www.metservice.com/national/home

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1715 pam 15

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_151132sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 151500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 33.3S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3S 178.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 37.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 34.2S 178.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND LIMITED CORE CONVECTION, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THIS IS CONFIRMED
WITH A 151246Z GPM IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM TAKING ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS IT BECOMES FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone PAM (17P) currently located near 33.3 S 178.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201517P pam 15

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING

ZCZC 387
WHNZ41 NZKL 150626
HURRICANE WARNING 246
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: SUBTROPIC AND FORTIES
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM 950HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0 SOUTH 177.
4 EAST AT 150600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 32.0S 177.4E AT 150600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 70
KNOTS BY 151800 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 160600 UTC.
PHENOMENAL SEA EASING TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 320 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 280 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 35.6S 179.9E AT 151800 UTC
AND NEAR 38.4S 177.6W AT 160600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 243.

NNNN

.Further warnings here:

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

MASCARENES ISLANDS/MADAGASCAR: Tropical Cyclone HALIBA (15S, 11) 09/1200Z nr 21.8S 55.2E, moving ESE 8 Kts – Updated 090315 1640z (GMT/UTC)

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM (12) (RSMC La Reunion)

 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (HALIBA) (JTWC)

MASCARENES ISLANDS SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM

 – (RSMC La Reunion)

si201516_5day 

si201516_sat_anim

ZCZC 549

ZCZC 549
WTIO30 FMEE 091222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA)
2.A POSITION 2015/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/10 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/03/12 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/13 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/03/14 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0-.
HALIBA HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z AND PROBABLY REACHED ITS INTENSITY PEAK (MAX W
INDS AT ABOUT 45KT), TEMPORARILY SHOWING A RAGGED EYE AT 08Z .
AFTER THAT, COULD PATTERN HAD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A SEVERE IMPACT OF THE
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN A WEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND EXPERIENCING BY THAT TIME SOME DEEP STRUCTURE CHANGES WITH A LARGER AND MORE ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME ITS SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH AN ONGOING EXTRATROP PROCESS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

La Reunion

B_q3FKVU0AE3dbt.jpg large

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1615.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/16S_090530sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 21.3S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 53.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 22.2S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.1S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.0S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 26.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 29.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET
SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HALIBA IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TC 16S TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
INCREASING VWS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 091221
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar/Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S 08/2100Z POSITION nr 33.4S 43.8E, moving SW at 25 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080215 2220z

Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bulletin du 08 février à 22H18 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI.
Pression estimée au centre: 991 HPA.
Position le 08 février à 22 heures locales: 32.3 Sud / 44.2 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1650 km au secteur: SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 33 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 09/02 à 22h locales, par 35.8 Sud / 40.6 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 10/02 à 22h locales, par 36.8 Sud / 40.1 Est.
SE DISSIPANT,
Centre positionné le 11/02 à 22h locales, par 38.8 Sud / 42.7 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 05H locales
Translation (by google):
Bulletin 08 February at 10:18 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical low pressure system present on the Southwest Indian Ocean.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FUNDI.
Estimated central pressure: 991 HPA.
Position 8 February at 22 am local time: 32.3 South / 44.2 East.
Distance from Reunion coast: 1650 km sector: SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, 33 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 09/02 at 22h local by 35.8 South / 40.6 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 10/02 at 22h local by 36.8 South / 40.1 East.
DISSIPATING,
Center positioned 11/02 at 22h local by 38.8 South / 42.7 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next bulletin to local 05H
WTIO31 FMEE 081825
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20142015
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(TRENTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 18 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :44 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/02/2015 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
24H: 09/02/2015 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2015 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2015 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2015 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2015 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE D’UN CISAILLEMENT ASSEZ FORT DE NORD-NORD-
OUEST ET D’INTRUSION D’AIR PLUS SEC DANS LA CIRCULATION DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE PAR LE NORD-OUEST, LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
APPARAIT, A L’IMAGERIE MSG3, PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE AU NORD DE LA
CONVECTION RESIDUELLE.
CETTE ENTREE D’AIR PLUS SEC ET PLUS FRAIS AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION
MARQUE LE DEBUT DU PROCESSUS D’EXTRA-TROPICALISATION QUI DEVRAIT ETRE
COMPLETE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
COMME PREVU, SOUS L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE (CF Z700 ET Z850) QUI SE RECONSTRUIT AU SUD-EST, FUNDI A
RECOURBE ET RALENTI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE RALENTIR LUNDI EN SE DIRIGEANT GLOBALEMENT
VERS L’OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RETRACTER VERS L’EST MARDI,
FUNDI DEVRAIT ALORS RECOURBER VERS LE SUD ASSEZ LENTEMENT DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS PUIS ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST MERCREDI ET SE DISSIPER
DANS LA NUIT SUIVANTE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D’OUEST DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.
WTIO31 FMEE 081,825
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF LA REUNION
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 12/9/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC ON 02/08/2015:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(THIRTY TWO THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5 / 3.0 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 40 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): 44 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANT (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE 280 SW 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE 190 SW 190 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 02/09/2015 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 035 KT, POST
TROPICAL
24H: 02/09/2015 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 030 KT, POST
TROPICAL
36H: 02/10/2015 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
48H: 02/10/2015 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2015 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2015 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B TREND LATER:
2.C:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH OF NORTHWEST NORTH
INTRUSION OF WEST AND DRIER AIR AVERAGE CIRCULATION
LEVEL BY NORTHWEST FLOW LOW LAYERS
APPEARS IN IMAGING MSG3, PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH
RESIDUAL CONVECTION.
THIS ENTRY AIR DRIER AND COOLER IN TRAFFIC
MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE PROCESS OF EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION THAT SHOULD BE
COMPLETE IN MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY.
AS PROVIDED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW AND MIDDLE RIDGE
LEVEL (CF Z700 AND Z850) WHICH IS REBUILT SOUTHEAST, A FUNDI
CURLED AND SLOW TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW MOVING GENERALLY MONDAY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
BACK THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TO WITHDRAW FROM EASTERN Tuesday,
FUNDI RECURVE SHOULD THEN SOUTH RATHER SLOWLY IN
FIRST TIME THEN ACCELERATE SOUTH-EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DISSIPATE
IN THE NIGHT IN THE WEST OF DISTURBED TRAFFIC
MID-LATITUDE.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1115

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/11S_081732sair.jpg
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 32.8S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 44.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 35.1S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 33.4S 43.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FUNDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTH
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATING AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHICH IS LEAVING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED. TC 11S HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25C. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR IS WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 081634Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE
AND CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 081817

WTIO24 FMEE 081817
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2015
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/02/2015 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, UP TO 450 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS, AND ALSO
LOCALLY UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FUNDI IS PROGRESSIVELY LOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.=

More warnings here:

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm 1502/ 02W HIGOS 072100Z POSITION nr 11.8N 157.6E, moving N at 6 knots (JTWC) – Published 070215 2150z

Tropical Storm HIGOS (1502, 02W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1502

TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 7 February 2015

<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N11°25′(11.4°)
E157°25′(157.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°05′(12.1°)
E156°30′(156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N12°40′(12.7°)
E154°50′(154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°35′(13.6°)
E152°55′(152.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0215.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/02W_071732sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 11.6N 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 157.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 12.4N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 12.9N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 13.4N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.3N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 15.8N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 16.7N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 157.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane Web Page

070215 2003Z

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots.
Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas.
Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA’s GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN - Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots. 
   Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas. 
  Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA's GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

ZCZC 538
WTPQ50 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 11.4N 157.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 12.1N 156.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 091800UTC 12.7N 154.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 101800UTC 13.6N 152.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 111800UTC 15.0N 151.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
120HF 121800UTC 16.0N 149.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =
NNNN

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 11.4N 157.4E MARSHALLS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 12.1N 156.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 12.7N 154.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.6N 152.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

More warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: 19/1000 (PhT) LOW (LPA) formerly “#Mekkhala/ #Amang” 16.8˚N, 122.7˚E – PAGASA – Updated 190115 0930z (GMT/UTC)

LOW PRESSURE AREA formerly 01W Mekkhala/ Amang

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Mekkhala_sat_anim

Japan Meteorological agency

1501-00 19th

15011915 19th

TD
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 18 January 2015

<Analyses at 18/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N16°00′(16.0°)
E122°00′(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa

PAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

FOR: LOW PRESSURE AREA (FORMERLY “AMANG”)
ISSUED AT: 10:30 AM, 19 JANUARY 2015

At 10:00 am today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) formerly “AMANG” was estimated based on all available data at 85 km Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora (16.8˚N, 122.7˚E). This weather system is expected to bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos.

Meanwhile, fisher folk and other small seacrafts are advised not venture out into the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon and the Eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon.

The next update will be incorporated in the 24-hour public weather forecast to be issued at 5:00 pm today while the next weather advisory will be issued at 11:00 am tomorrow.

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.

10410341_742438229199422_5565964766380787603_n

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0115 19th

 https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/01W_181732sair.jpg
WTPN31 PGTW 182100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 022A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181800Z — NEAR 15.7N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 123.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 16.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 17.9N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 123.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BAGUIO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS IT WAS STRIPPED OF DEEP CONVECTION BY STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AIDED BY A COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE 181500Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. TD
MEKKHALA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO THE HIGH VWS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: RELOCATED INITIAL
AND FORECAST POSITIONS AFTER ANALYSIS OF UPDATED AND MORE ACCURATE
SATELLITE DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression MEKKHALA (01W) currently located near 15.1 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Find warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mauritius/La Reunion: Tropical Storm CHEDZA 06S 181200Z: 22.9 S / 52.3 E, moving SE 8 at knots(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 180115 1520z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA 06

….. HEAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS. – RSMC LA REUNION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

chedza_sat

RSMC LA REUNION

chedza trajectoire

chedza sat anim

Bulletin Réunion
JOURNEE DU DIMANCHE 18

La Tempête tropicale CHEDZA était située à 16h à 360km a l Ouest-Sud-ouest des côtes réunionnaises et se déplace vers le sud-est à 15km/h.

Vigilance houle cyclonique d’ouest de 2.5m à 3 m sur les cotes Ouest et Sud en cours.

Flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest humide.
NUIT DU DIMANCHE 18 AU LUNDI 19
Les précipitions deviennent éparses sur l Est en début de nuit pour devenir plus fréquentes dans le Nord de l’île approximativement de St Leu à St Benoit en passant par le chef lieu en seconde partie de nuit .

Le vent de secteur Nord reste soutenu plus particulièrement sur les façades Nord-Ouest et Est ( 60 à 70km/h) et dans les hauts de la Réunion avec des rafales pouvant atteindre les 80 à 90 Km/h
LUNDI 19
Pris dans le flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest des averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest et Nord, ailleurs comme dans le sud sauvage le ciel est plus clément avec de belles éclaircies.

Au fil des heures l’instabilité se réactive et les nuages se développent dans l’intérieur.

Ces deniers débordent ensuite sur le sud sauvage où des averses sont alors attendues.

Le vent reste soutenue il souffle principalement sur les côtes Ouest et Est avec des rafales de 70 à 80km/h. Sur les hauteurs exposées, les rafales sont proches de 80 km/h.

La mer est agitée à forte au vent, une vigilance houle cyclonique d’Ouest est en cours de Champs-Borne à la Pointe de la Table en passant par St Leu, houle comprise entre 2. et 2.5 mètres soit 5 m pour les hauteurs maximales . Une houle de Sud-Est de 2.5 à 3 est egalement de mise sur les cotes Est et Sud .
MARDI 20
Poussées par un vent d’Ouest, quelques averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest, ailleurs c’est globalement du soleil. Au fil des heures, les nuages se développent dans

l’intérieure de l’ile et des débordement nuageux concernent le sud de la Réunion ou quelques averses peuvent se produire

Vent d ouest modéré avec des rafales sur les cote Sud-Ouest.

houle de Sud Ouest de 2 a 2.5M de la Pointe de Aigrette à la Pointe de la Table.
MERCREDI 21
Belle journée, la masse d’air s’assèche le soleil l’emporte. les développement nuageux de l apres-midi restent limites.

vent de Sud-Ouest faible à modéré le matin, tournant Sud en fin de journée.

Houle d ouest sud ouest de 2 à 2.5m

Reunion Bulletin
DAY SUNDAY 18

Tropical Storm CHEDZA was located at 16h to al 360km west-south-west coast of Reunion and moves southeast at 15km / h.

Vigilance westerly cyclonic swell from 2.5m to 3m on South West Coasts and in progress.

RSS wet North-West.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY 18 19

The rush become scattered over the East early night in order to become more common in the north of the island approximately St Leu in St Benoit through the main town in the second part of the night.

North wind sector remains particularly strong on Northwest and east facades (60 to 70km / h) and the heights of the Meeting with gusts to 80 to 90 km / h

Monday 19

Caught in the flow of North-West showers are possible early in the day on the west facade and north as elsewhere in the wild south the sky is partly cloudy skies with.

As the hours instability reactivates and clouds develop in the interior.

These funds then spill over into the wild south, where rainfall is then expected.

The wind remains strong it blows mainly on the west and east coast with gusts of 70 to 80 km / h. On the exposed heights, the bursts are near 80 km / h.

The sea is rough with strong wind, vigilance cyclone swell West is being Champs Terminal Point Table via St Leu, swell between 2 and 2.5 m or 5 m for the maximum heights . A Southeast swell from 2.5 to 3 is also placing on the east and south coasts.

Tuesday 20

Driven by a west wind, some rain showers are possible early in the day on the west facade, it is also generally the sun. The hours, the clouds develop in

interior of the island and cloudy infinity concern southern Meeting or a few showers may occur

West of moderate wind with gusts on the South West Coast.

Southwest swell 2 to 2.5M of Pointe Heron Pointe de la Table.

Wednesday 21

Beautiful day, the mass of air dries the sun wins. development of cloudy after noon are limits.

Southwest winds weak to moderate in the morning, turning south in the afternoon.

Houle southwest of West 2 to 2.5m

Bulletin du 18 JANVIER à 16H45 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature des systèmes dépressionnaires tropicaux présents sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE EX-BANSI.
Pression estimée au centre: 960 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 25.8 Sud / 78.3 Est.
(vingt cinq degres huit sud et soixante dix-huit degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 2340 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST.
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 46 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 33.0 Sud / 90.9 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 38.1 Sud / 104.1 Est.
————————————————-
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHEDZA.
Pression estimée au centre: 982 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 22.9 Sud / 52.3 Est.
(vingt deux degres neuf sud et cinquante deux degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 360 km au secteur: OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 15 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 25.3 Sud / 53.1 Est.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 27.8 Sud / 54.6 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 21/01 à 16h locales, par 30.6 Sud / 57.9 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 22/01 à 16h locales, par 35.4 Sud / 63.1 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 23/01 à 16h locales, par 45.5 Sud / 78.5 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 23h local

Bulletin January 18 at 4:45 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical storm systems present on the southwestern Indian Ocean.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BANSI.
Estimated central pressure 960 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time 25.8 South / 78.3 East.
(twenty five eight degrees south and seventy-eight degrees is three).
Distance from Reunion coast: 2340 km to the sector: EAST SOUTHEAST.
Displacement: EAST SOUTHEAST, 46 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 33.0 South / 90.9 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 38.1 South / 104.1 East.
————————————————-
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA.
Estimated central pressure 982 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time: 22.9 South / 52.3 East.
(twenty two nine degrees fifty-two degrees south and three east).
Distance from Reunion coast 360 km sector: WEST-SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTHEAST 15 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 25.3 South / 53.1 East.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 27.8 South / 54.6 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 21/01 at 16h local by 30.6 South / 57.9 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 22/01 at 16h local by 35.4 South / 63.1 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Centre positioned on 23/01 at 16h local by 45.5 South / 78.5 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next newsletter to 23h local

ZCZC 453
WTIO30 FMEE 181306

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CHEDZA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 52.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 350 SW: 190 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/21 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/22 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/01/23 12 UTC: 45.5 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS UNCONVENTIONAL AND MENTIONED INTENSITY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK TECHNIQ
UE THAT IS NOT ADAPTED ANY-MORE FOR THIS KIND OF SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIG
H PRESSURES.
IN THE WAKE OF CHEZA, IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS EXIST AND OCCUR LOCALLY H
EAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS.
CHEDZA KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARDS TOWARDS A TRANSIENT MID
-LEVEL TROUGH.
ON THIS PATH, FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS LOW TO MODER
ATE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD ALLOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

No warning

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 181240

WTIO22 FMEE 181240
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BANSI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 78.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 430 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 620 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 710 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
29.1 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
33.0 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S 161200Z POSITION nr 21.6 S / 66.4 E, moving SE 16 knots ((RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 160115 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

si201505_5day

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bansi

KML Google Earth

WTIO31 FMEE 161237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20142015
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 926 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SO: 640 NO: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 150
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2015 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
24H: 17/01/2015 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2015 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2015 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
60H: 19/01/2015 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
72H: 19/01/2015 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2015 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 21/01/2015 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5+ ET CI=6.5+
LA SIGNATURE DVORAK S’EST DEGRADEE DEPUIS LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC
UN OEIL DE PLUS DE 45 MN DE DIAMETRE. L’IMAGE MICRO-ONDE F15 DE 1026Z
MONTRE UNE EROSION DU MUR DE L’OEIL COTE OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE MEME
SI LE CI DVORAK EST A 6.5+, L’INTENSITE DU VENT MAX A ETE RETROGRADEE A 110
KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE CES ELEMENTS. BANSI CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER
REGULIEREMENT ET RAPIDEMENT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST.
BANSI DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L’EST-SUD-EST DANS LE
COURANT DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU PLONGER VERS LE SUD-EST.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME PASSE MAINTENANT AU SUD DE LA
DORSALE D’ALTITUDE ET UN TALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SE RAPPROCHE
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. PAR CONSEQUENT LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT ET EN RAISON DE LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS 25S, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACQUERIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES HYBRIDES POST-
TROPICALES DIMANCHE, PUIS EXTRATROPICALES A PARTIR DE LUNDI OU MARDI.
JUSQUE MARDI, LES VENTS NE VONT S’ATTENUER QUE LENTEMENT AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION. MERCREDI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT

ZCZC 570
WTIO30 FMEE 161237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 926 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SW: 640 NW: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/17 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/17 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.5+
THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EYE
DIAMETER MORE LARGE THAN 45 NM. 1026Z F15 MW PICTURE SHOWS AN ERODED
EYE-WALL WESTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, CI IS AT 6.5+ DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINT, BUT INTENSITY OF THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED AT
110 KT. BANSI CONTINUES TO MOVE REGULARLY AND RAPIDLY ON A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
TONIGHT BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD.
WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRA-TROPICAL FROM
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNTIL TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP RAPIDLY.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh0515

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_160530sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 20.0S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 65.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 23.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 24.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 25.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 31.6S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES TC BANSI HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AS THE EYE HAS
CONTRACTED DOWN TO 32NM AS THE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AND DEFINED. HOWEVER, A 160442Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE OBSERVED IN THE MSI ANIMATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP
WHILE KNES INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE AS WIDELY DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TC 05S
IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BE ACCELERATED BY TAU 36
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72
WHICH WILL COMPLETE ETT. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk

See:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201505S.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 151223

WTIO20 FMEE 161228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI) 926 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 200 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 300
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 345 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 420 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VIII_S

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Philippines: Tropical Storm 23W Jangmi/ Seniang 300900Z 10.0N 121.5E, moving W 15km/h(9kt) – Published 301214 1115z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Jangmi

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

TS 1423 (JANGMI)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 December 2014
<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N10°00′(10.0°)
E121°30′(121.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 30/21 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N9°40′(9.7°)
E120°05′(120.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/23W_300532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300600Z — NEAR 10.4N 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 121.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 9.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 9.5N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 8.9N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 8.3N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 7.1N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 6.4N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 5.6N 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 120.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT
WAVEN HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z,
302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN

News Reports

Death toll from Philippine storm Jangmi rises to 30

Published on Dec 30, 2014 5:01 PM
Residents help each other out from their inundated neighbourhoods after rains spawned by a tropical storm, locally known as Seniang, caused flooding in Misamis Oriental on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao on Dec 29, 2014. — PHOTO: AFP

MANILA (AFP) – At least 30 people were killed in landslides and flash floods as tropical storm Jangmi slowly crossed the southern and central Philippines, dumping heavy rain for a second day on Tuesday, officials said.

Rivers burst their banks and submerged villages in floods up to “neck-deep” while hillsides crashed onto homes and highways, officials said.  Some residents in vulnerable areas ignored evacuation warnings, Stephany Uy-Tan, mayor of the town of Catbalogan in Samar province, told DZMM radio.

“The rains were really strong and people thought the storm won’t be too strong based on the news,” she said.

Twelve people were killed after a landslide buried two vans on a mountainside highway in Catbalogan, she said.  “Rescuers report hearing voices from the rubble,” she said.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 310600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1423 JANGMI (1423) 998 HPA
AT 10.2N 121.6E SULU SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 09.8N 120.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 09.4N 118.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 08.4N 115.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 06.8N 110.8E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.