Luzon/ Philippines/ China/ Hong Kong/ Vietnam: Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W)/ LUIS: 141800Z near 18.4N 119.6E, moving WNW at 17 knots (JMA) – Updated 140914 2000z (UTC)

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W)/Bagyong LUIS in the Philippines

Typhoon “LUIS” has slightly weakened as it continues to cross the Northern Luzon area – PAGASA

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1415

TY 1415 (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 14 September 2014

<Analyses at 14/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°25′(18.4°)
E119°35′(119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE390km(210NM)
NW280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40′(18.7°)
E116°20′(116.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40′(19.7°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20′(21.3°)
E107°10′(107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°50′(22.8°)
E102°20′(102.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

 

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

luis 14091412

 

EVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER  TWELVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TYPHOON “LUIS” (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Sunday, 14 September 2014

 

 

Typhoon “LUIS” has slightly weaken as it continues to cross the Northern Luzon area.

 

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.)
 in the vicinity of Kabugao, Apayao
Coordinates: 18.0°N, 121.1°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 30 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Monday morning:
outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

Monday evening:
492 km West of Laoag City

 

 Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao
# 3(Winds of 101-185 kph is expected in at least 18 hrs) Cagayan including Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Mt. Province and Ilocos Sur   None None
# 2(Winds of 61-100 kph is expected in at least 24 hrs) Batanes Group of Islands, Isabela, Ifugao, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya and Pangasinan None None
#1
(winds of 30 – 60 kph is expected in atleast
36 hours)
Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan Nueva Ecija, Quirino and Aurora None None

 

Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

 

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3, #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges of up to 2 meters.

 

Estimated rainfall amount is from 8 – 20 mm per hour (heavy – Intense) within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.

 

The rest of Luzon and Western Visayas will have monsoon rains with moderate to strong southwesterly surface windflow due to the Southwest Monsoon.

 

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the westerm seaboard of Central Luzon and seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas.

 

The public and the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (DRRMC) concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

See more: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/hourly-update

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1514.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/15W_141132sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 17.9N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 121.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 18.8N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 19.6N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 21.2N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 22.6N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 24.1N 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 121.0E.
TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 17.9 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) Afternoon Video Update | September 14, 2014

Typhoon Kalmaegi / Luis Nearing Landfall Sunday – WestPacWx

Rain

Out of this storm of course the rainfall is going to be a big threat. Starting Sunday through Tuesday much of Luzon will be drenched with heavy showers including the Manila area mainly on Monday. The hardest hit areas should be along the north eastern coast of Luzon where up to 200-300mm of rainfall could come down on Sunday night through Monday. Flooding and landslides across North Eastern Luzon will be likely on Monday. The Iligan and Tuguegarao areas could see urban flooding as well making travel for anyone headed out on Monday not only rough but possibly impossible at times.

The good news is the storm is moving at a relativly fast pace of 15km thus the rainfall shouldnt last over a long period of time and will be over by Monday afternoon in eastern Luzon.

Winds Winds will also be an issue for towns along the eastern coastlines north of the storms center of circulation. Here we could see damaging typhoon strength winds maxing out with gust as high as 90-100kts at times for coastal exposed locations. Good news as we always state with this part of the Philippines is that typhoons are not that uncommon. In fact most towns are built inland away from immediate coastal areas due to the fact that it is hit so often.

Surge Storm surge in immediate low lying areas will also be an issue. But only along immediate coastlines and areas that often flood during high tides.

Manila For the most part the NCR should miss the worst of this storm. But based on guidance at this time Tropical Storm strength winds up to 35-40kts are likely as we head through Monday morning and the storm tracks north of the city. The strongest winds will be along the bay area dissapating the farther you go inland.

This is enough to blow around light debris making for dangerous driving conditions. In SHORT its going to be a messy Sunday and Monday in Luzon. Stay tuned to your official agency PAGASA for local warnings and as always be smart about how you plan your day during these storms. If you are being advised to evacuate, get to an evacuation center! Stay safe everyone.”- westernpacificweather.com/2014/09/14/typhoon-kalmaegi-luis-nearing-landfall-sunday/

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane ODILE 15E: 131800Z nr 16.6N 106.0W, moving NW at about 4.34 knots (NHC) – Published 130914 2030z (UTC)

Hurricane Odile

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

…ODILE GETTING STRONGER…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 131752
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

…ODILE GETTING STRONGER…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI…810 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…977 MB…28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. ODILE HAS
RECENTLY MOVED LITTLE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…LATER TODAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND PASS NEAR
OR SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES…315 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB…28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SURF…SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Sep, 2014 21:00 GMT

Hurricane ODILE (15E) currently located near 17.0 N 106.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

 Odile becomes a hurricane– Extract

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:34 PM GMT on September 13, 2014
“In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Odile became the 11th hurricane of season Saturday morning, intensifying to a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds at 11 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Odile continues to grow more organized, but the hurricane’s heavy rains are remaining offshore of Mexico. Odile may be undergoing a period of rapid intensification that will take it to at least Category 2 strength; the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model gave Odile a 55% chance of intensifying by 30 mph in 24 hours. While all of the reliable computer models show Odile will track northwest and remain offshore of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, just a slight deviation to the east would bring tropical storm conditions to the coast. The 11 am EDT Saturday NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave Cabo San Lucas on the tip of the Baja Peninsula a 51% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph , and a 6% chance of hurricane-force winds. As Odile passes southern Baja on Monday, the computer models grow more divergent in their forecast for the hurricane’s track, with several reliable models (the European and UKMET) showing landfall over the Central Baja Peninsula. The GFS model keeps the storm out to sea. Regardless of the track, tropical moisture flowing northwards from Odile’s circulation is likely to bring heavy rains to Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. by the middle of the week.” – Dr. Jeff Masters

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1455

WTPZ25 KNHC 131455 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
. LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….100NE 150SE 170SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 131730
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 56N171W 961 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 55N174W TO 56N178W TO 60N179W. BETWEEN 120 AND 300
NM S QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. WITHIN 180 NM
N SEMICIRCLE…240 NM E…540 NM S…AND 420 NM SW QUADRANTS AND
ALSO WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE FRONT…WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12
TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 45N TO 61N BETWEEN 156W AND
175E…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 56N163W 978 MB. BETWEEN
300 NM SW AND 480 NM S QUADRANTS…EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 46N
TO 60N BETWEEN 152W AND 173W…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20
FT…EXCEPT SEAS TO 10 FT N OF THE LOW CENTER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 59N161W 992 MB. FROM
53N TO 58N BETWEEN 151W AND 165W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14
FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FRONT EXTENDS FROM 60N150W TO 57N148W TO 45N150W. WITHIN 240 NM
NE OF THE FRONT S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 61N148W TO 57N144W TO 50N144W.
WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT S OF 57N SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 57N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 59N140W TO 54N139W. WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE FRONT SE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 42N151E 997 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 44N160E
TO 40N160E. WITHIN 180 NM NE AND N OF THE FRONT E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N160E 1002 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N177E 1007 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 33N149W 1009 MB DRIFTING SE. BETWEEN 180 AND 360 NM E
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N147W 1008 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 46N146W TO 39N150W. IN AN AREA
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A LINE FROM 46N148W TO 38N155W N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 36N147W 1007 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NW
QUADRANT N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N179E 1009 MB WITH FRONT SW FROM LOW TO
36N163E. WITHIN 300 NM S QUADRANT AND 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N167W 1013 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 42N170E TO 40N164E TO 36N160E.
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 180 NM E OF
A LINE FROM 52N150W TO 59N151W AND FROM 37N TO 44N W OF 169E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 47N BETWEEN 164E AND
178E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 176W AND
169E.

.HIGH 52N137W 1024 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N135W 1019 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 50N135W 1015 MB.

.HIGH 39N179E 1026 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N173W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N172W 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 16.6N 106.0W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 13
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE…150
NM SE…170 NM SW AND 90 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 270 NM S AND 180 NM N SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 270 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 09N TO
20N BETWEEN 99W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 18.9N 108.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM S SEMICIRCLE…120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 330 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND
360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 08N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 22.1N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE…150 NM SE…130 NM SW AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 360 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO
14 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 100W AND 119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 24.4N 114.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 26.5N 116.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 27.5N 117.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

UPDATED FOR LATEST ADVISORY

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 16.0N 117.2W 1007 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 13 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 113W
AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIXTEEN-E NEAR 15.5N
114.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 270 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIXTEEN-E NEAR 18.4N
110.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 90 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS MERGED WITH AREA DESCRIBED
IN WARNING SECTION.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13…

.HURRICANE ODILE…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE
AND 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO 10N89W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W
1007 MB TO 14N95W..RESUMES FROM T.D. SIXTEEN-E TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N132W 1011 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S
OF TROUGH W OF 131W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 13 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 14 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 15 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 12N144W 1008 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 11N140W TO LOW
TO 09N149W TO 07N166W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 155W AND 160W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
210 NM OF LOW AND TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 12N146W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO
LOW TO 08N154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 11N149W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO
LOW TO 06N162W.

.LOW 15N172W 1008 MB MOVING W 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 08N178E
TO 04N175E MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180
NM OF LOW AND TROUGH W OF 178E…FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 171W
AND 174W…AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 163W AND 171W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 14N179W 1007 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
04N173E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 10N174E TO
17N178E.

.FRONT FROM 30N146W TO 28N151W TO 28N155W TO 29N159W MOVING SE
SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT E OF
155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N144W TO 26N148W TO 25N157W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N142W TO 23N150W TO 23N155W.

.WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N179E TO 28N172E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 29N166W TO 28N169W TO 27N173W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.RIDGE FROM 30N164E TO 28N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.RIDGE FROM 25N140W TO 23N146W TO 24N155W TO 26N167W MOVING S
SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 167W AND 171W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 12N W OF 173E…FROM 14N TO
27N W OF 174E…FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 147W AND 158W…WITHIN
60 NM OF 27N174W…AND ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 166W AND 180W.

$$

.HONOLULU HI.=

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Philippines: Ferry sinks off Leyte carrying at least 84, at least 70 missing as Typhoon Kalmaegi/Luis approaches – Published 130914 1900z (UTC)

At least 70 people are missing after a ferry sank in the waters off the central Philippines in bad weather on Saturday night, the government’s civil defence office said.

The Maharlika II ferry, carrying at least 84 people went down off the central island of Leyte with only 14 people rescued so far by other boats said Mina Marasigan, spokeswoman of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

“Rescue boats had trouble reaching them because the waves were really huge,” she told AFP. The coast guard and private vessels are still in the area, Marasigan said, adding there are hopes more people will be rescued in the coming hours. The ferry had reported “problems with steering” and had also been buffeted by heavy rains, worsened by Typhoon Kalmaegi which is approaching the northern Philippines, she said.

Saturday, 13 September, 2014 at 17:07 (05:07 PM) UTC RSOE

Related:

Typhoon Kalmaegi/Luis http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3sA

Other Reports

SOUTHERN LEYTE GOV:

Ferry sinks off Southern Leyte

( Editor’s Note: Reposting article for updates)

MANILA, Philippines – A passenger ferry sank off Southern Leyte and Surigao Saturday night, authorities said.

Strong waves spawned by the southwest monsoon caused the Maharlika 2, a roll off, roll on vessel, to sink in the afternoon, Southern Leyte Governor Roger Mercado said in a live radio interview.

The ship, which came from Surigao City was scheduled to dock in Liloan town, Southern Leyte at 5 p.m., Ricardo said.

But Commander Armand Balilo, spokesman of the Philippine Coast Guard, said in a separate interview that based on initial reports, the ship was “dead on water” and was not sunk by strong waves.

He said based also on initial reports that there were 84 people on the ship – 56 adults, 2 children, and 26 crew.

He said three ships – the Maharlika 4, a sister vessel; St. Martn; and an unnamed third vessel – have responded and were conducting search and rescue operations.

He could not say how many persons were rescued as the figures would be subject to confirmation by the Coast Guard.” – 

Video

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Pakistan: Heavy monsoon rains leave at least 82 dead in Punjab, Kashmir, KPK. More rain forecast – Published 050914 1010z (UTC)

At least forty (G: 82 over Punjab and Azad Kashmir) people died in separate incidents of roof collapse, land sliding and electrocution followed by heavy downpour in Punjab on Thursday.

Heavy rains lashed Lahore where six members of a family lost their lives in a roof collapse, including an infant. In another incident of roof collapse in Government Officers Residence (GOR) Colony, two people died. Separately, a man died after getting electric shocks in Johar Town.

Several deaths were also reported from Sialkot, Faisalabad and Gujranwala. According to rescue sources, a woman and two children died when a house’s wall collapsed on them in Sialkot. Two more deaths were also reported from Faisalabad, while in Monki area of Gujranwala, a child died and two other persons were injured in a roof collapse.

The government of Punjab has declared emergency in the rain-hit areas and launched full-scale rescue operations. Sialkot DCO Nadeem Sarwar said on Thursday that a high wave of flood will pass through the River Chenab midnight Thursday. He said residents of villages adjoining the river had already been evacuated and shifted to safer places.

Talking to APP, he said as many as 33 relief centres had been established in the Sialkot District in addition to medical centres with sufficient medicines.

The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has warned all the authorities concerned to take necessary precautionary measures during the expected rains between Thursday and Friday. According to the officials of PDMA thunderstorm with isolated heavy rain at a few places is expected in Hazara, Malakand, Peshawar, Mardan and Kohat division. There is a chance of flash flooding in local nullahs and streams.

At least forty people, including women and children, died and 30 sustained injuries in different incidents of roof collapses in various districts of Punjab during current torrential rains. According to a Rescue 1122 spokesman around 13 people, including three women, succumbed to injuries when roofs of different homes caved in different localities of the provincial capital. As per reports, the roof of a double storeyed building caved in near Chah Miran area; Dhobi Ghaat, which resulted in the instant death of six people, including three women.
Similarly, the roof of a house collapsed in GOR-2. Resultantly, two people got stuck under the debris. The rescue service responded to the incident and extricated the victims’ dead bodies. A man died after he suffered an electric shock in Johar Town and another man also died due to a roof collapse. According to reports, three people died when the roof of a house caved in at Thokar Niaz Baig, whereas one man died in a house near Samanabad Roundabout.

Meanwhile, one person died and six sustained multiple injuries in two incidents of roof collapses in Faisalabad; four died and two were injured in Gujranwala due to a roof collapse. Another five people died and two sustained multiple injuries due after receiving electric shock in Sialkot district. Moreover, one person died and two were injured in Chundowal village, whereas one died and 10 sustained multiple injuries in roof collapses in Okara and Kasur.

The rescuers, who responded to the incidents in Punjab, ascertained that mostly dilapidated buildings with poor bases were to blame for the roof collapses. Expressing his concerns, Punjab Rescue DG Dr Rizwan Naseer advised citizens to remove debris and extra weight from the rooftops of the houses and strengthen their bases by putting sand and mud around the walls to avoid collapses. He said the citizens should remove electric wires or cover them properly to avoid electric shocks in monsoon season.

The overnight downpour submerged low-lying areas of Lahore, including Wasanpura, Garhi Shahu, Garden Town, Ferozepur Road, Mall Road, Gulberg and Iqbal Town. Rain emergency has been declared in the province and local administration has been put on high alert to kick off rescue efforts and prevent rain-related casualties.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned that all rivers in Punjab would likely be in “very high” to “exceptionally high” flood from Sept 5 to 7 because of expected intensification of the current spell of fairly widespread rains.

Friday, 05 September, 2014 at 04:39 (04:39 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

“LAHORE/RAWALPINDI:

Death toll from heavy monsoon rains mounted to 82 as torrential downpour continued to batter Punjab and Azad Kashmir, SAMAA reported Friday.

In Punjab, reports said, the death from rain-related incidents reached 60.

Most of the deaths were caused by roof collapses in buildings as rains crippled civic life in the city.

Hundreds of acres of agriculture land inundated in Punjab as dozens of villages were cut off due to rainwater.

In Azad Kashmir, at least 18 people were reported killed. Four people were killed in Haripur district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

More Rain Likely

Authorities warned that more intense rainfall and flash floods could cause flooding in major rivers.

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast more rain during next 12 hours in Punjab, Azad Kashmir and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, adding that the rain may continue till Sunday.

PMD said if the rains continued for two days, the high flooding in rivers may inundate vast swatches of land in Punjab.

National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has kicked off rescue and relief operations.

High Flood

Due to flash flooding in Kashmir region, the rivers Jhelum and Neelum are close to overflowing in some places, officials said.

Reports said a high flood level is being witnessed in River Chenab at Marala Headworks.

Authorities in Sialkot and Narowal areas have issued flood warnings in various areas of Punjab and evacuated local people from villages.

Pak Army has also been called in to assist local administration.

Pakistan has suffered deadly monsoon floods for at least the last four years — in 2013, 178 people were killed and around 1.5 million affected by flooding around the country.

The floods of 2010 were the worst in Pakistan’s history, with 1,800 people killed and 21 million affected in what became a major humanitarian crisis. SAMAA/AFP” – http://www.samaa.tv

J-K: Bus washed away by floods, 50 feared dead

HT Correspondents, Hindustan Times Jammu/Srinagar, September 04, 2014

First Published: 15:02 IST(4/9/2014) | Last Updated: 11:02 IST(5/9/2014)

“At least fifty people were feared dead on Thursday after a bus carrying a wedding party was washed away by flash floods inJammu and Kashmirs Rajouri district, even as 20 other flood-related deaths were reported from other parts of the state.

Three days of heavy rain left rivers in the state flowing above the danger mark and triggered landslides in several places, forcing key highway stretches to close for traffic. More rainfall is likely for at least the next two days, the meteorological department warned.

On Thursday afternoon, the bus — filled to its capacity of 52, including the bride and groom was on its way to Lam, around 120 km from Jammu city, when it was hit by surging waters of the Gambhir river. Only three people survived the accident.

Rescue operations were severely hampered by heavy rainfall, said Rajouri senior superintendent of police Mubassir Latifi.

The state capital of Srinagar also braced for major floods with the Jhelum, Kashmirs main river, flowing more than seven feet above the danger mark.

Vast swathes of Srinagar remain inundated, with water levels just a few feet shy of breaching Lal Chowk, the citys commercial hub.

With water level rising by the hour, locals complained of administrative apathy. Our colony has been under water since 2am Thursday but no help arrived till morning. Only two boats, with a capacity of four, were made available by the administration, even though hundreds of people are stranded, said Mushtaq Ali, a resident of Hamdania colony in Srinagars Bemina area.

Torrential rainfall forced the Vaishno Devi pilgrimage to be suspended on Thursday after three people were injured in landslides triggered by heavy showers.

The 300-km-long Jammu-Srinagar national highway also closed for traffic after two landslides in the Ramban district left hundreds of vehicles stranded.

South Kashmirs Anantnag and Kulgam districts are among the worst hit, with at least 50 villages under water and more than 1500 people marooned. On Thursday, the government dispatched 50 boats to the region that evacuated hundreds of people trapped by floodwater. A number of bridges have also collapsed in south and central Kashmir, cutting off several hamlets.

People living along the banks of Jhelum and embankments of other water bodies have been asked to move to safer areas immediately, said Kashmir divisional commissioner.

Amid complaints that the administration was slow in responding to the crisis, chief minister Omar Abdullah conducted an aerial survey of flood-affected districts on Thursday, directing officials to take all necessary measures to safeguard lives of people affected by the deluge.

The government has asked the air force to keep a rescue plan ready, and around 500,000 sand bags have been kept available, said a spokesperson. The cabinet has also approved Rs. 10 crore for rescue work.

All schools and colleges are closed in the state till Sunday. Kashmir University has postponed its examination.” – Hindustan Times

 

East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane NORBERT 14E: 050600Z nr 22.3N 111.3W, moving NNW at about 6.95 knots (NHC) – Published 050914 0845z (UTC)

Hurricane NORBERT* 14E

…CENTER OF NORBERT PASSING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

(*CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 050547
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

…CENTER OF NORBERT PASSING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.3N 111.3W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM. SEVERAL MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATIONS NEAR CABO SAN
LUCAS HAVE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY.

RAINFALL…NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1414.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
050000Z — NEAR 21.7N 111.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 111.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 22.9N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 23.9N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 24.8N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 25.7N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 27.1N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 28.5N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 01 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 111.3W.
HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM SOUTHWEST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 5 Sep, 2014 3:00 GMT

Hurricane NORBERT (14E) currently located near 22.0 N 111.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for TS is 95% currently
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

Hurricane Norbert Brushing Baja; 90L Emerges From the Coast of Africa – Extract

By: Jeff Masters , 12:42 PM GMT on September 04, 2014/ wunderground.com

“Hurricane Norbert took advantage of unusually warm 29.5C (85F) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and intensified into the Eastern Pacific’s tenth hurricane of the year on Wednesday evening. The Eastern Pacific has seen an unusually active hurricane season, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes so far. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Category 1 Norbert had no eye but some very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops, and Mexican radar showed an outer band of Norbert bringing heavy rains to the tip of the Baja Peninsula and adjacent areas of Mainland Mexico. Norbert should be able to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist atmosphere, and moderate wind shear over the next two days to maintain Category 1 hurricane strength, but the models all show the core of the hurricane remaining just offshore as it moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Norbert is a small storm, and it’s hurricane-force winds are only expected to reach out about 25 miles from the center when it makes its closest pass by the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday morning. Hurricane force winds will likely stay offshore, but Baja can expect tropical storm-force winds from Norbert. In their 2 am PDT Thursday WInd Probability Advisory, NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 63% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 0% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. Heavy rains of 3 – 5″ causing flash flooding will be the primary threat from Norbert to Baja.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Tropical Storm Norbert at approximately 5 pm EDT September 3, 2014. At the time, Norbert had top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

……Jeff Masters” / wunderground.com

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0239

WTPZ24 KNHC 050239
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO
SAN EVARISTO…AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO
PUNTA ABREOJOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0530

FZPN02 KWBC 050530
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 07.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW 42N172E 988 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM NE…480 NM
SE…360 NM SW…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS
8 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N177E 976 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
540 NM NE…840 NM SE…480 NM SW…AND 420 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N180W 978 MB. WITHIN 480 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 600 NM E QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 21 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 35N TO 50N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 51N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 57N158W 1003 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 660 NM E AND 1020
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N152W 1009 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
60N141W TO 54N148W TO 45N149W. WITHIN 240 NM SE AND E OF THE
FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N141W 1007 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N TO 33N W OF 165E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N163E 1007 MB. FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 167E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 46N TO 59N
BETWEEN 137W AND 162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 146W AND
154W AND FROM 42N TO 48N BETWEEN 172W AND 179E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 50N BETWEEN 164W AND
170W.

.HIGH 48N138W 1030 MB DRIFTING NE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N136W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N142W 1022 MB.

.HIGH 53N178W 1016 MB MOVING N 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 41N160W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N155W 1019 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN SEP 07.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 22.0N 111.1W 970 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 05
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE…100
NM SE…90 NM SW AND 80 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE…210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 114W AND FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 23.9N 112.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS
TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM SE
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM
16N TO 28N BETWEEN 105W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 25.7N 115.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE…100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA E OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM
20N TO 29N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 27.1N 117.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NORBERT NEAR 28.5N
118.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NORBERT NEAR 29.0N
118.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 00N124W TO 02N119W TO 03.4S97W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0200 UTC FRI SEP 5…
.HURRICANE NORBERT…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N98W TO 10N105W…CONTINUES FROM
15N113W TO 12N120W TO 12N127W…THEN ITCZ 12N131W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM N AND 60 NM S OF
AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 05 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 06 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 07 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 29N143W 1012 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N146W 1014 MB. WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT
OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED TO A TROUGH FROM 29N147W TO
26N150W.

.LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 29N159W 1007 MB MOVING NE SLOWLY. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF 28N
W OF 162E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 30N161E 1006 MB. FRONT FROM LOW TO
28N160E. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N163E 1007 MB. FRONT
FROM LOW TO 27N160E. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E.

.HIGH 25N170W 1016 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. RIDGES FROM HIGH TO
30N155W AND FROM HIGH TO 24N175E TO 22N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 25N173W 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 27N W OF 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF A LINE FROM 30N170W TO
27N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 28N W OF 178W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 170E.

.ITCZ FROM 09N140W TO 10N152W TO 07N170W TO 06N160E. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER BURKE. HONOLULU HI.=

 

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Eastern Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Disturbance 93E: 020830Z nr 15.6N 107.5W, moving NE at 9 knots. High chance of becoming Tropical Cyclone within next 24 hours (JTWC) – Published 020914 1505z (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 93E

THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) Invest 93E (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Surface Temp (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep9314.gif

 

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/93E_020830sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN21 PHNC 020830

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0N 106.6W TO 19.9N 110.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6N 107.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 272 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 020451Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
CENTER. A 020404Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH
STRONGER WINDS (30 KNOTS) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND WEAKER
05 TO 10 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030830Z.//
NNNN

Other

Eastern Pacific’s 93E a potential threat to Bajawunderground.com
“In the Eastern Pacific, tropical disturbance Invest 93E is gathering strength a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. In their Monday morning runs, both the GFS and European models predicted that 93E would develop into a tropical storm late this week, and pass very close to the tip of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula on Friday. Satellite loops show that 93E is poorly organized today, and I expect that the earliest the disturbance would become a tropical depression is Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93E 2-day and 5-day odd of development of 20% and 70%, respectively.”

Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2014

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 021130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SEP 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 04.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 45N167E 1004 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 180 NM E QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO 48N
BETWEEN 173E AND 160E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N172E 1005 MB. FROM 40N TO 48N BETWEEN
178E AND 165E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N173E 1006 MB. WITHIN 300 NM N AND NE
SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 33N TO 44N BETWEEN 121W AND 129W N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 44N BETWEEN
123W AND 129W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 39N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N WINDS
30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 46N BETWEEN
123W AND 131W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 49N TO 55N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W W TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 48N TO 50N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W N TO NW
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 47N TO 54N E OF
134W N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 46N TO 51N E OF 130W N TO NW WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.POST-TROPICAL MARIE 31N140W 1015 MB DRIFTING SW. WITHIN 240 NM
N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL MARIE 30N141W 1014 MB. WITHIN
240 NM N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL MARIE S OF FORECAST AREA. FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 140W AND 145W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.LOW 48N162W 1017 MB MOVING N 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM N AND NE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N162W 1015 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N160W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS…AND FROM 40N TO 52N BETWEEN 148W AND 158W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 60N148W 1011 MB MOVING E 10 KT. N OF 55N BETWEEN 145W AND
155W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW TO FORM 61N152W. N
OF 55N BETWEEN 144W AND 154W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 57N TO 60N BETWEEN 173W AND 157W W TO
SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N163E 1000 MB. FROM 32N TO 42N BETWEEN
168E AND 160E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 42N TO 48N
BETWEEN 150W AND 163W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 45N168E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 52N BETWEEN 148W AND
166W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 55N BETWEEN 143W AND
161W.

.HIGH 52N152W 1026 MB MOVING SE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N142W 1028 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N139W 1028 MB.

.HIGH 44N146W 1025 MB DRIFTING N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 53N173W 1026 MB MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N176W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 55N178W 1020 MB.

.HIGH 33N163E 1018 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 31N168E 1017 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N175E 1015 MB.

.FORECASTER COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE SEP 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED SEP 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU SEP 04.

.WARNINGS.
…GALE WARNING…

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N107W 1006 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER SE
QUADRANT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT. FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT. FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
18N108W 1004 MB WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 17N105W TO 14N107W SW WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
17N104W TO 12N110W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W…AND FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
19N110W 1002 MB. WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO
21N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF 02S W OF 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N134W TO 04N128W TO 06N117W
TO 01S109W TO 03.4S98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N132W TO 08N121W TO 00N104W
TO 03.4S91W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0815 UTC TUE SEP 02…

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N107W 1006 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N109W TO 10N122W
AND FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 08N93W THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES
NEAR 16N107W 1006 MB TO 18N115W TO 12N126W. ITCZ FROM 12N126W TO
11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 45 TO 60 NM ALONG COAST OF
COLOMBIA N OF 03N…AND N OF 06N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 78W AND
84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
ENTIRE COAST OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 12N
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W…FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W.

.FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SEP 02 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 03 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 04 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW…POST-TROPICAL MARIE…JUST N OF FORECAST AREA 31N140W
1015 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW…POST-TROPICAL MARIE…30N141W 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW…POST-TROPICAL MARIE…29N143W 1013 MB.

.FRONT FROM 30N180E TO 29N175E TO 29S169E. FRONT MOVING SE
SLOWLY E OF 175E…AND NEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N177W TO 26N171E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH FROM 30N178E TO
26N169E.

.TROUGH FROM 13N179W TO 03N177E MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 13N174W TO 05N170W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MOVED W OF FORECAST AREA.

.RIDGE FROM 30N152W TO 29N154W TO 27N165W TO 24N176W MOVING E
SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 148W
AND 160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 151W
AND 162W.

.OTHERWISE…SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 11N140W TO 11N144W TO 09N148W TO 08N158W TO 06N171W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ W OF
152W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ E
OF 152W.

$$
.FORECASTER HOUSTON. HONOLULU HI.=

METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/gulfmexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/ Bay Of Campeche: Tropical Storm DOLLY (05L): 022100Z near 22.0N 97.0W , moving W at 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 020914 2104z (UTC)

Tropical Storm DOLLY (05L)

…CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) North Atlantic Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021755
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

…CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH…
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.0N 96.5W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF DOLLY IS REFORMING SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.

AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING…AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER…MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007
MB…29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON…AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2014 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DOLLY (AL05) currently located near 22.0 N 97.0 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Dolly in Gulf of Mexico; Watching Eastern Pacific

Stu Ostro / wunderground.com
Published: September 2, 2014
– Tropical Depression Five upgraded to Tropical Storm Dolly

– Center relocated about 100 miles northwest of previous NHC estimate

– Tropical Storm Warning issued for the coast of Mexico centered on Tampico

GULF OF MEXICO: TROPICAL STORM DOLLY

Hurricane Hunters investigating Tropical Depression Five this morning found winds easily strong enough to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Dolly, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Perhaps most interesting is the finding by the Hurricane Hunters that the center had reformed about 100 miles west-northwest of the previous estimate from NHC. Strangely NHC located the center at 22.4N 94.4W at 2 am (based on early aircraft information) but the Hurricane Hunters just estimated the center about 80 miles southwest of this near 21.5N 95.3W. Regardless, the center is jumping around, not all that uncommon of developing systems. The core of Dolly will still remain south of the U.S.

(MORE:�Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast)

Strong northerly winds aloft continue to blow thunderstorms to the southeast of Dollys center. Winds at 3,000 feet about 50 miles southeast of the new circulation were measured at 60 mph by the Hurricane Hunters, which reduces to about 45 mph near the ocean surface. The instrument on the bottom of the plane is also estimating winds at the surface in the 45-50 mph range, so NHC is setting the winds at 45 mph for now. Some strengthening is possible tomorrow as Dolly approaches the coast of Mexico.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for a small stretch of coastline centered on Tampico in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico. Only modest strengthening is expected before it moves inland on Wednesday. The primary impact will be heavy rainfall as the system approaches Mexico late Tuesday.

Previous update: The system will be guided westward under a strong dome of high pressure to the north. It only has a 24-48 hour window over water before moving inland over Mexico. Regardless of development, the difference in pressure between Dolly and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will establish a strong southeast to northwest flow sweeping toward the Texas coast, which will bring abundant tropical moisture to the Lower Rio Grande Valley by the middle part of the week.

(MORE:Glossary of Tropical Terms�|�New�NHC�Storm Surge Maps)

The main impacts in the U.S. will a high risk for rip currents along the lower Texas coast, including South Padre Island, and the potential for heavy rainfall on Tuesday into Wednesday from Brownsville to Corpus Christi.

/ wunderground.com

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2043

WTNT25 KNHC 022043
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 96.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 98.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 99.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 97.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH=

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1608

FZNT01 KWBC 021608
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 02
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 03
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 04

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL INLAND 59N77W 979 MB. FROM 60N TO 62N
W OF 61W AREA OF E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE W
OF A LINE FROM 63N64W TO 60N57W TO 53N50W TO 46N60W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST INLAND LOW 60N74W 982 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
62N65W TO 60N56W TO 57N54W TO 50N61W TO 46N65W. WITHIN 120 NM N
OF FRONT N OF 60N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E OF FRONT N OF 56N AND WITHIN 360 NM E OF
FRONT S OF 56N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 63N60W 992 MB.
WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND BETWEEN 240 NM AND 420
NM S QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 52N52W 1002 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
61N47W TO 57N47W TO LOW CENTER TO 45N54W. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 62N37W 990 MB MOVING E 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
420 NM S AND 150 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 62N29W 1000 MB. FROM 55N TO 59N
E OF 39W AREA OF W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.FROM 53N TO 63N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W AREA OF NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW E OF AREA 62N29W
ABOVE.

.LOW 38N34W 1010 MB JUST E OF AREA MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.LOW 43N53W 1011 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM
S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N50W 1015 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 42N TO 44N
BETWEEN 47W AND 53W AND FROM 41N TO 44N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG W OF A LINE FROM 62N60W TO 57N48W TO
46N59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE FROM
60N48W TO 52N53W TO 42N54W.

.HIGH 34N57W 1024 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N57W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 32N59W 1022 MB.

.HIGH 49N52W 1021 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N44W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 50N35W 1025 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 32N68W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 04.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DOLLY NEAR 23.4N 96.5W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
02 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE…30 NM NE QUADRANT AND
60 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INLAND NEAR 24.5N 99.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT…100 NM SE QUADRANT…0 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY INLAND NEAR 24.8N
100.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
METAREA IV

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