Andaman Islands/ Thailand/ Myanmar/ India: Tropical Depression 29W 071500Z nr 11.3N 99.9E, moving NNW 07 kt (JTWC) – Updated 07 Nov 2017 1925z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression TWENTYNINE 29W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT  071200Z IS 6 FEET. – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 29W (Twentynine) Warning #06
Issued at 07/1500Z

wp29171

29w_071200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071200Z — NEAR 11.2N 100.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 100.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 11.7N 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 12.4N 96.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 12.9N 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 13.4N 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 14.3N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 99.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTH OF BANGK0K, THAILAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z./
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated4

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 Nov, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression TWENTYNINE is currently located near 8.3 N 102.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 25kts (29 mph). TWENTYNINE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chumphon (10.5 N, 99.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Prachuap Khiri Khan (11.8 N, 99.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
    Ranong (10.0 N, 98.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201729w

201729w_0

NCHMF VIETNAM

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING
TC TRACKS
VN Track 29w 07
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Tuesday, November 07, 2017 10.9 100.1 TD 50 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Wednesday, November 08, 2017 12.7 96.3 TD 56 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:30 AM wednesday, November 07, 2017
Satellite Imagery

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17110721
METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1800 

FQIN01 DEMS 071800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 07 NOVEMBERBER 2017.

PART-I: NO STORM WARNING
PART:-II
THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL FROM COMORIN AREA TO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP AREA PERSISTS.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH KERALA COAST EXTENDING UPTO 3.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER MALAY PENINSULA AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA. WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 65 DEG E SW-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N(.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E :NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N :4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG E 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E :NNW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 5 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 5 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO 15 DEG N AND
W OF 70 DEG E:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 65 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 63 DEG E (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG N :NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N(.)
4)N OF 20 DEG N ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :4-3 NM(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E :6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N:ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N : NNE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 12 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 18 DEG N :6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE E
OF 82 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N:W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N:NNW-LY 05/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/20 KTS TO THE E OF 83 DEG E AND S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 85 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 85 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NNE-LY 10/25 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/15 TO THE S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1-4 MTR(.)
———————————————
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200 

WWCI50 BABJ 071200
1:31:11:01:00
BT
SECURITE=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC NOV.07 2017=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC NOV.07=
FCST VALID 1200UTC NOV.08=
WARNNING=
NIL=
SUMMARY=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER SOUTHWESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
TAIWAN STRAIT AND NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
AND BOHAI
STRAIT AND WESTERN PART OF YELLOW SEA AND WESTERN
PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND BEIBU GULF AND ANDAMAN
SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND SEA EAST OF
SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT
AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
SUNNY VIS GOOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD SUNNY VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD SUNNY VIS GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD OVERCAST BECMG SUNNY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG SUNNY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO ROUGH MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR
TO MOD=
TAIWAN STRAIT
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S BACK NE
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
E WINDS BACK NE 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
BEIBU GULF
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
E WINDS BACK NE 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE ROUGH LIGHT
RAIN VIS MOD TO VERY=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
SW WINDS VEER N 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
KOREA STRAIT
SW WINDS VEER NW 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG CLOUDY VIS MOD TO
GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO VERY=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
E WINDS BACK NE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT
RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH MOD RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO VERY=
SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA
NE WINDS BACK W 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S VEER SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER W WINDS
08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD
RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=
SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE
NW WINDS VEER NE 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD
RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
NE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD TO GOOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
E WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S VEER SE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD
MOD RAIN VIS POOR TO MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

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Myanmar/ Bangladesh/ India: Tropical Cyclone MORA 02B 29/0900Z position near 18.3N 91.5E, moving NNE 08 kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 May 20017 1145z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm/Tropical Cyclone Mora

….INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (Bangladesh Met)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 02B (Mora) Warning #07
Issued at 29/0900Z

WTIO31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 17.7N 91.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 91.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 20.0N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 22.8N 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.7N 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 91.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 290400Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE USING A 290316Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH INDICATES THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH ONLY
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE MORA JOGGED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT A GENERAL
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IN APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH IN AROUND 24 HOURS.
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL, WITH THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
NNNN

==========================================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘MORA’ ADVISORY NO. SIX ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 29TH MAY 2017 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH MAY 2017
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, 29TH MAY, 2017 OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.8ºN AND LONGITUDE 91.4ºE, ABOUT 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA(42807) AND 500 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG(41978). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN LONGITUDE 91.0ºE AND 92.0ºE NEAR CHITTAGONG AROUND 30TH MAY 2017 FORENOON.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST TRACK POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION
(LAT. ºN/ LONG. ºE)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
29.05.2017/0600
17.8/91.4
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
29.05.2017/1200
18.9/91.5
90-100 GUSTING TO 110
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
29.05.2017/1800
20.1/91.5
100-110 GUSTING TO 120
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/0000
21.3/91.6
110-120 GUSTING TO 130
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/0600
22.8/91.7
110-120 GUSTING TO 130
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/1800
25.4/92.2
55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
31.05.2017/0600
27.7/93.0
30-40 GUSTING TO 50
DEPRESSION
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE: THE STORM SURGE OF HEIGHT OF ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 METER ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE OVER LOW LYING AREAS OF BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN SITAKUND AND UTTAR JALDI AT THE
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-246524844 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com
TIME OF LANDFALL.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND (MSW) IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992 HPA. A BUOY NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6º N AND LONGITUDE 89.1ºE REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
(MSLP) OF 1003.1 HPA AND MSW 320/21 KNOTS. ANOTHER BUOY NEAR LATITUDE
20.3º N AND LONGITUDE 92.0ºE REPORTED MSLP OF 1000.0 HPA. THE MULTISATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS OF EASTERN SECTOR.
THE CONVECTION HAS FURTHER ORGANISED IN PAST 12 HOURS AND SHOWS
CURVED BAND PATTERN. BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.00N
TO 22.00N LONGITUDE 85.00E TO 97.00E. MINIMUM CTT IS ARROUND – 90.00C. THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS 30-31ºC. THE OCEAN
THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE
TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS AROUND 15-25 KTS, VORTICITY IS
AROUND 200 X10-5 S-1. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER OF 50 X10-5
S-1. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO OF THE ORDER OF 50 X10-5 S-1 AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS
ALONG 17.0ºN IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORHNORTHEASTWARDS
AS IT LAYS WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SO FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
THEREAFTER EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IN WESTERLY OVER
EASTERN INDIA. CURRENTLY SYSTEM IS BEING STARRED BY THE DEEP LAYER
WIND OF 200-850 HPA. THE MEAN DEEP LAYER WIND BETWEEN 200-850 HPA IS
170DEGREE/7 KNOTS. THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATE CONTINUOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST
SECTOR. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMIS AT 0001 UTC OF 29TH
INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTRE FROM
NORTHEAST.
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
MORE THAN 1. IT WOULD CONTINUE IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1
DURING NEXT 3 DAYS. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT DURING
NEXT 48 HRS.
(NARESH KUMAR)
SCIENTIST ‘D’
RSMC, NEW DELHI
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-246524844 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com

Bangladesh Met Logo

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 12 (TWELVE), Date: 29.05.2017 (Local Times)
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 990 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS FURTHER OVER THE SAME AREA, INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (NEAR LAT 18.8°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 385 KMS SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 305 KMS SOUTH OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 450 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONGLA PORT AND 370 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS CHITTAGONG – COX’S BAZAR COAST BY MORNING OF 30 MAY 2017.
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ GUSTY/SQUALLY WIND WITH RAIN/ THUNDER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL DISTRICTS AND MARITIME PORTS OF BANGLADESH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 89 KPH RISING TO 117 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE SYSTEM.
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER TEN (R) TEN.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER FIVE BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 89-117 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

BD map

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 29 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MORA is currently located near 17.7 N 91.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). MORA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Bangladesh
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    India
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Cox’s Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bhutan
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Shillong (25.6 N, 91.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Dispur (26.1 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Imphal (24.8 N, 93.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Other

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Deadly Cyclone Mora hits Bangladesh with high winds and rain – BBC News

(30 May 2017 1105 UTC)

Cyclone Mora has hit the south-eastern coast of Bangladesh, killing at least five people.

Most of them were killed by falling trees in the districts of Cox’s Bazar and Rangamati, officials told the BBC.

Hundreds of houses were fully or partly damaged, the officials said. Significant damage is reported in refugee camps housing Rohingya Muslims from neighbouring Myanmar.

The authorities have moved hundreds of thousands of people to shelters.

Cyclone Mora made landfall at 06:00 local time (00:00 GMT) between the fishing port of Cox’s Bazar and the city of Chittagong, with winds of up to 117 km/h (73mph), the country’s meteorological department said.

Low-lying areas of Cox’s Bazar, Chittagong and many other coastal districts were “likely to be inundated” by a storm surge of 1.2m-1.5m (4-5ft) above normal levels, the department had warned.

People have been evacuated to shelters, schools and government offices.

Fishing boats and trawlers have been advised to remain in shelters. Flights in the area have been cancelled.

About 20,000 houses in refugee camps for Rohingya were damaged, community leader Abdus Salam told AFP news agency.

“In some places, almost every shanty home made of tin, bamboo and plastic has been flattened,” Mr Salam added. “Some people were injured, but no-one is dead.”

Large camps have been set up in Cox’s Bazar for hundreds of thousands of Rohingya who have fled violence in Myanmar.

A clear picture is still not available due to poor communication with many affected areas, Bangladeshi officials told the BBC.

A number of houses were also damaged in western Myanmar.

Cyclone Mora will move northwards past Chittagong, weakening as it moves further inland and downgrading from a Category One hurricane to a tropical storm, tracking website Tropical Storm Risk forecasts.

Parts of eastern India are expected to be affected later on.

The Bay of Bengal is prone to storms and Bangladesh is often hit by severe weather during the monsoon season, from the middle to the end of the year.

Last year, Cyclone Roanu hit coastal Bangladesh, leaving at least 24 people dead.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 291118
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONIC STORM “MORA” OVER BAY OF BENGAL
DATE AND TIME BASED UPON WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:
PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 290600 UTC
PRESENT POSITION: 17.8 0N/91.40 E
POSITION ACCURATE TO 40 KM
PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 010/07 KT
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 33 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORECASTS:
06 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z 18.9°N /91.50 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z 20.1°N /91.50 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

18 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z 21.3°N /91.60 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z 22.8°N /91.70 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z 25.4°N /92.20 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z 27.7°N /93.00 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 15KT, GUSTS 25 KT

Bangladesh Met

Marine Warning
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 12 (TWELVE), Date: 29.05.2017
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 990 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS FURTHER OVER THE SAME AREA, INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (NEAR LAT 18.8°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 385 KMS SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 305 KMS SOUTH OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 450 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONGLA PORT AND 370 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS CHITTAGONG – COX’S BAZAR COAST BY MORNING OF 30 MAY 2017.
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ GUSTY/SQUALLY WIND WITH RAIN/ THUNDER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL DISTRICTS AND MARITIME PORTS OF BANGLADESH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 89 KPH RISING TO 117 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE SYSTEM.
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER TEN (R) TEN.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER FIVE BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 89-117 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Myanmar/ Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Depression 92B (Future CS Maarutha)150300Z 12.5N 88.3E, moving NNE 10.8kt (RSMC New Delhi)- Published 15 Apr 2017 1240z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 92B

(Future Cyclonic Storm Maarutha)

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15-04-2017


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 20 KMPH DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 12.5º N AND LONGITUDE 88.3 ºE, ABOUT 500 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 950 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE (48062) AND SANDWAY (48080) BY FORENOON OF 17TH.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 1.5. THE CONVECTION HAS ORGANISED DURING PAST 12 HRS AND SHOWS CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH WELL DEFINED WRAPPING FROM EASTERN SECTOR. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER SOUTH AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 9.0 DEGREE NORTH TO 17.0 DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.5 DEGREE EAST TO 95.0 DEGREE EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 70 DEGREE CELCIUS. A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 11.4/91.9 REPORTED MSLP OF 1003.8 HPA AND WIND OF 1700/14 KTS. AVAILABLE SHIP AND BUOY DATA AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO BE ABOUT 1001 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. MULTI-SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS 30-320C. IT DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 28-290C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. IT ALSO DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 60-80 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND IS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS (HIGH) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 150 x 10-6 S-1 AND CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 x 10-5 S-1 .THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO THE SOUHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 x 10-5 S-1 THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 100N. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 7 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 8 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AMPLITUDE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY INDICATE INCURSION OF WARM MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. HENCE CONSIDERING ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, WHILE OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, VORTICITY AND TPW ARE FAVOURABLE, MJO AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE UNFAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM MAY REACH UPTO THE INTENSITY OF DEEP DEPRESSION/CYCLONIC STORM.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION/ CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS.
(M.MOHAPATRA)
HEAD-RSMC, NEW DELHI

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

ABIO10 PGTW 150200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/150200Z-151800ZAPR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150051ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 87.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 600
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142121Z AMSU-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND IS NOW CIRCULAR IN SHAPE WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY
IN THE NORTHEAST WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) OFFSET BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
AND DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTIO21 PGTW 150100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

Other Sources

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 15 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ONE is currently located near 14.3 N 90.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). ONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Sandoway (18.5 N, 94.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Myanaung (18.3 N, 95.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Bassein (16.7 N, 94.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Henzada (17.6 N, 95.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

DoctorAdvice4u (@RoshinRowjee) | Twitter

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151115
SPECIAL GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 0600 HOURS FROM 0600 UTC 15 APRIL 2017.

PARTI:-NO STORM WARNING:-

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 28 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 13.2
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 89.0 DEG E, ABOUT 420 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA
BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 840 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE
AND SANDWAY (MYANMAR) BY FORENOON OF 17TH APRIL.

PART:-II:
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
———————— ——————-
ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 56 DEG E : S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 56 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 56 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N; NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15
KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 58 DEG E TO 74 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N: :SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 60 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND S OF 7 DEG N: :6-4 NM(.)
2)REST AREA:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:
1) E OF 75 DEG E 0.5-2 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-1 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 58 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
E/SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 58 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 58 DEG E TO 63 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 63 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
5)E OF 65 DEG E TO 75 DEG E :NW/W-LYNW/W-LY 05/15 KTS(.)
6)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
7)E OF 75 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: W-LY 05/15 KTS
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N :8-6 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT
1)W OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-1 MTR(.)
2)E OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-3 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 62 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 0.5-2 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
1)W OF 65 DEG E AND S OF 20 DEG N:ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)
2)N OF 20 DEG N: S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 65 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E
AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 85 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 85 DEG E : :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 85 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :4-3 NM(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3-4 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E : 3-2 NM
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:3-4 NM
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Bangladesh: Depression over NE Bay of Bengal & coast areas of Bangladesh & W Bengal may become Deep Depression in 24 hrs (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 270715 1035z (GMT/UTC)

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre - Tropical Cyclones, India Meteorological Department - Government of IndiaRegional Specialized Meteorological Centre
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE

TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 27072015

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 27072015
BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 27 July, 2015
THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING COASTAL AREAS OF
BANGLADESH & WEST BENGAL
REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 15HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT
0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 27 JULY 2015 NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 90.2 EAST, CLOSE TO WEST OF KHEPUPARA
(41960). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR SOME MORE TIME AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION

DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CI. 1.5  PATTERN IS SHEAR PATTERN
.
DISTANCE BETWEEN CENTRE AND CLOUD MASS IS NEARLY 100 KMS.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVEC
TION OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL
.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 27TH JULY 2015.
(DUTY OFFICER)
RSMC, NEW DELHI

mapimage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abiosair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 270000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/270000Z-271800ZJUL2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.3N 90.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 69 NM WEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BANGLADESH COASTLINE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE BAY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A 261533Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED 30 KNOT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE;
HOWEVER, FUTHER ORGANIZATION IS HAMPERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) IN ADDITION TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE INTO INDIA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IF THE DISTURBANCE WERE TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH,
THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY AND GOOD OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A MEDIUM//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

FQIN01 DEMS 270900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 27 JULY 2015
—————————————————-
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING

PART II:-THE DEPRESSION OVER NE-BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJ.
COASTAL AREAS OF BAGLA DESH AND WEST BENGAL MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST -WARDS AND LAY CENTERED NEAR LAT 22.0 DEG N/
LONG 90.2 DEG E(.)SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN PRACTICALY STATIONRY
FOR SOME MORE TIMES AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS.(.)

AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AT MSL RUNS FROM KARNATAKA COAST TO
KERALA COAST PERSISTS(.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
—————————————————
A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 70 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E:WSW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)2-3 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 70 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E:WSW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)2-3 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-SSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-SSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

METAREA VIII_N

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone 03B HUDHUD 121500Z nr 18.4N 82.5E, moving NW at 8 knots (JTWC) – Updated 121014 1521z (UTC)

 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM Hudhud

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0314.gif

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03B_121130sams.jpg

WTIO31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 18.0N 82.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 82.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 19.6N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 21.7N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 24.3N 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
TC 03B MADE LANDFALL NEAR VISAKHAPATNAM AT ABOUT 12/07Z AND HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK INLAND WHILE WEAKENING. A 121108Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS. TC
03B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RE-CURVING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2014 6:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm HUDHUD (03B) currently located near 17.5 N 83.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

News Reports

At least three people were killed Sunday when Cyclone Hudhud slammed into India’s east coast packing winds of almost 200 kilometres (125 miles) per hour, ripping down power cables and forcing roads and railways to shut.

Around 370,000 people living along the eastern coastline were evacuated before the storm hit around 11.30 am (0600 GMT) on Sunday morning, as authorities tried to avoid mass casualties. “We have had three deaths since this morning,” said Natrajan Prakasam, a Disaster Management Commission official in the worst-hit state of Andhra Pradesh in southeast India. Two people were crushed by falling trees, while the third was killed when a wall collapsed in heavy rains, he told AFP. India placed its navy and coastguard on high alert ahead of the storm and advised residents to stay indoors as the cyclone passed by, warning of large waves known as storm surges. Some flights were cancelled while bus and train services in the worst affected areas were suspended. The head of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) said the main highway in the port city of Visakhapatnam, which was in the eye of the storm as it hit, was strewn with fallen trees and electricity pylons. “The two big challenges facing the NDRF team are clearing roads and evacuation and rescue work,” he added. India’s eastern coast and neighbouring Bangladesh are routinely hit by bad storms between April and November that cause deaths and widespread property damage. The region is populated by fishermen and small-scale farmers, many of whom live in flimsy huts with thatched roofs or shanties.

Sunday, 12 October, 2014 at 09:50 UTC RSOE

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

WTIN01 DEMS 120900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 12 OCTOBER 2014
—————————————————-
PART I:-STORM WARNING
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘HUDHUD’ OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTNORTHWESTWARDS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HRS. IST OF YESTERDAY,THE 11TH OCTOBER
2014 NEAR LATITUDE 16.2ON AND LONGITUDE 84.8OE
ABOUT 230 KMS SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM AND 340 KMS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR(.)IT THEN MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS
AND LIES CENTERED AT 0830 HRS IST OF TODAY,THE 12TH
OCTOBER 2014,NEAR LATITUDE 17.4ON AND LONGITUDE 83.8OE
ABOUT 60 KMS EASTSOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM(.)
THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST CLOSE TO VISHAKHAPATNAM
WITHIN A FEW HOURS(.)
PART II:-WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:-SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:-NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC SW-LY
TO THE E OF 75 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 55 DEG E:-WSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E:-NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY
TO THE E OF 68 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)0.5-1 M(.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG.E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE S OF 05 DEG N AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM TO THE S OF 05 DEG N AND
S OF 15 DEG N(.)REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 90 DEG E:S/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 90 DEG E:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)2-3 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N AND W OF 85 DEG E:-SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)REST AREA VARIABLE(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)LESS THAN 0.5 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
S-LY 20/25 KTS BEC SE-LY TO THE N OF 16 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 85 DEG E:S-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
2)E OF 85 DEG E:SSE-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 85 DEG E(.)
REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)1-2 M 2)2-3 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

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India/Bay of Bengal: Low Pressure Area MADI (RSMC New Delhi) Tropical Cyclone 120300Z nr 11.9N 81.5E, moving SW at 10 knots (JTWC) Final Warning- 121213 1102z

Tropical Cyclone Madi (JTWC)

 

 

= Tropical Storm (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category)

Low Pressure Area (RSMC NEW DELHI)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

(Image: IMD) Chennai Doppler Radar (Click image for animation/source)

 

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12 -12 -2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
OFF TAMILNADU COAST.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA :-BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA,
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER EASTCENTRAL & SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL,
ARABIAN SEA :-NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
RIDGE LINE:-RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 14.0N OVER THE INDIAN REGION.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0613.gif

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 120300

 

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z NEAR 12.2N 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 82.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z 10.9N 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z 9.9N 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A DEVOLVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MINIMALLY
FLARING CONVECTION WHILE STEADILY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
RECENT 112354Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS WEAKENING STRUCTURE
AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LAND INTERACTION DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIA AND
FURTHER DEVOLVE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06B_081730sair.jpg

 

END

 

Extreme weather could become norm around Indian Ocean, say scientists http://tinyurl.com/knpzqlf

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

 

WTIN01 DEMS 120900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 12 DECMBER 2013

PART I:-STORM WARNING (.)
DEPRESSION WEAKEN INTO WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER SW BAY OF BENGAL,AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY(.)
IT FURTHER MOVED SW-WARDS AND LIES OVER SW BAY OF
BENGAL OFF NORTH TAMILNADU COAST(.)
PART II :-(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA (VIII)(.)
ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N:-
I)W OF 70 DEG E:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)E OF 70 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
TO THE E OF 72 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 05 DEG N:NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)I)1-2 M II)0.5-1 M 2)1-2 M(.)

 

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)N OF 05 DEG N:-
I)W OF 70 DEG E:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)E OF 70 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
TO THE E OF 72 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 05 DEG N:NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)I)1-2 M II)0.5-1 M 2)1-2 M(.)
A2 ARABIAN SEA :-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 1-2 M (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:- 1-2 M (.)
BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS (.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM TO THE S OF 13 DEG N(.)
REST AREA 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)

 

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

 

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

 

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

 

 

Issue Date :11-12-2013 Region : Tamil NaduComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry
High wind waves in the range of 3.0- 3.6 meters are predicted during 17:30 on 11-12-2013 to 23:30 12-12-2013 along the Nagapattinam to Pulicat of Tamil Nadu coast. The forecasted wind speeds range from around 10 m/sec to 18 m/sec. The forecasted currents vary in the range of 100 to 130 cm/sec., at most of the locations close to the coast. The forecasted swell heights vary in the range of 2.0- 2.5 m.Under the influence of this system, rainfall at a few places would occur over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry during next 48 hrs.

Fishermen along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea and should not venture into deep sea.

images
images
Currents

Swell

Significant Wave Height

 

Pondichery

 

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

 

 

Issue Date :11-12-2013 Region : Andhra PradeshComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Vizag
High wind waves between 3.0- 3.6 meters are forecasted from 1730 hrs of 11-12-2013 to 2330 hrs of 12-12-2013 along the Andhra coast between Kakinada to Durgarajupatnam. The forecasted wind speeds range from around 10 m/sec to 15 m/sec. The forecasted currents vary in the range of 100 to 130 cm/sec., at most of the locations close to the coast. The forecasted swell heights vary in the range of 1.5 -2.3 m.Under the influence of this system, rainfall at a few places would occur over coastal southern Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hrs.

Fishermen along and off southern Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea and should not venture into deep sea.

images
images
Currents

Swell

Significant Wave Height

Kakinada

India/Bay of Bengal: Depression(IMD)/Tropical Cyclone 4B HELEN 192100Z nr 15.1N 83.9E, moving W at 7 knots (JTWC)

CYCLONIC STORM HELEN (RSMC NEW DELHI)

Tropical Cyclone 04B (HELEN)(JTWC)

Up to 10.1 million people people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above. In addition, 1.3 million people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge. - GDACS

“(Helen) forecast to make landfall as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with winds gusting up to 120kph. Or about the equivalent of Typhoon Strength Gust.” – Westernpacificweather

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM HELEN ADVISORY NO. TWO ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF
20TH NOVEMBER 2013 BASED ON 0600UTC CHARTS of 20TH NOVEMBER 2013.

THE CYCLONIC STORM HELEN OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 6 HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 20
TH
NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 15.2
0
N AND LONGITUDE 84.0
0
E, ABOUT 470 KM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279), 430 KM EAST OF KAVALI (43243), 320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MACHILIPATNAM (43185) AND 290 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149).
THE SYSTEM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME, THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND CROSS SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN SRIHARIKOTA
(ANDHRA PRADESH) AND ONGOLE (43221), CLOSE TO KAVALI AROUND NIGHT OF 21
ST
NOVEMBER 2013.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.5.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUD EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT 13.5
0
N AND 18.0
0
N LONG 82.0
0
E AND
86.0
0
E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -80
0
C.CONVECTIVE BANDING
IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTRE HAS ORGANISED AND CONSOLIDATED FURTHER DURING PAST 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.
T
RACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/Time(UTC)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ long.
0
E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
20
-11-2013/0600
15.2/84.0
70-80 GUSTING TO 90
CYCLONIC STORM
20
-11-2013/1200
15.4/83.5
75-85 GUSTING TO 95
CYCLONIC STORM
20
-11-2013/1800
15.4/83.0
85-95 GUSTING TO 105
CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/0000
15.2/82.5
90-100 GUSTING TO 110
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/0600
15.0/82.0
95-105 GUSTING TO 115
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/1800
14.8/80.8
100-110 GUSTING TO 120
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
22
-11-2013/0600
14.7/79.5
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
22
-11-2013/1800
14.6/78.2
55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
23-11-2013/060
0
14.5/77.0
40-50 GUSTING TO 60
DEPRESSION
REMARKS:
THE SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED BY DWR- MACHILIPATNAM, VISAKHAPATNAM
AND CHENNAI. ACCORDING TO THESE RADARS, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N AND
84.0E AT 0600 UTC. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS NEAR 13.5N AND 84.0E SHOW MSLP OF 1007.3
HPA AND WINDS OF 270/16 KTS.
THE CYCLONIC STORM HELEN LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE WHICH RUNS ALONG 17
0
N. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONGWITH LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE VORTICITY ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THEY HAVE INCREASED
DURING PAST 12 HRS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 28-29
0
C. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS LOW TO MODERATE (05-15 KNOTS).
DIVERGENCE IN NWP MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO LANDFALL
POINT AND TIME, AS THE TRACK FORECAST VARIES FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. WITH RESPECT TO INTENSIFICATION, THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS SUGGESTING
SLOW INTENSIFICATION OR NO INTENSIFICATION. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON
CONSENSUS NWP AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.NSUS NWP AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0413.gif

 

WTIO31 PGTW 200900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
200600Z — NEAR 15.3N 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 84.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 15.5N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 15.7N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 15.8N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 15.8N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 15.7N 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT AMSU-B
PASSES (200409Z AND 200733Z) INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
THE LLCC AND WITHIN THE MAIN FEEDER BAND TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASSES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PGTW CENTER FIX LOCATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AND PERSISTENCE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HELEN
IS LOCATED NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE AT 15-20 KNOTS. DIVERGENCE IS CONTAINED IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION AS OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
PROVIDES THE LARGEST SOURCE OF EXHAUST. TC HELEN HAS MAINTAINED SLOW
TRACK SPEEDS DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS AS IT MEANDERS NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THESE SLOW TRACK SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK WITHIN
THE WEAKNESS. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND STEER TC HELEN ON A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK AFTER
TAU 24. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 IS EXPECTED AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BATTLES THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS
BUT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DROP-OFF BY TAU 36 AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIFURCATION AMONGST
MODEL TRACKERS WITH THE WEAKER VORTEX CLUSTER (ECMF, NVGM, GFDN,
EGRR) TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE STRONGER VORTEX CLUSTER (AVNO,
HWRF, CTCX) TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS BASED ON LAST 18 HOUR PERSISTENCE OF
SLOW TRACK SPEEDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE TIMING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY NOW FAVORS THE TRACKERS THAT
DEPICT A STRONGER VORTEX AND SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKERS, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoN Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 20 Nov, 2013 6:00 GMT

 

 

Tropical Storm HELEN (04B) currently located near 15.3 N 84.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

https://i2.wp.com/old.gdacs.org/images/gdacs_logo_small.png

 

Automatic impact report for tropical cyclone HELEN-13

alertimage

Green alert for wind impact in India

This tropical cyclone is expected to have a low humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.

 

Current storm status

 

This report is for advisory number 4 of tropical cyclone HELEN-13 issued at 11/20/2013 6:00:00 AM (GDACS Event ID 41389, Latest episode ID: 4).

 

Current impact estimate:

 

  • Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0
  • Tropical Storm (maximum wind speed of 111 km/h)
  • Vulnerability of affected countries: High

 

Impact of Extreme Wind

 

Cloud map
Cloud map. The map shows the areas affected by tropical storm strength winds (green), 58mph winds (orange) and cyclone wind strengths (red). (Source: JRC)

Affected population

Up to 10.1 million people people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above. In addition, 1.3 million people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

Affected provinces

Country Region/Province Population
India Andhra Pradesh 70.2 million people
India Pondicherry 850000 people

Affected cities

Name Region/Province Country City class Population
Kandukur Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Bhimavaram Andhra Pradesh India City 130000 people
Narasapur Andhra Pradesh India City 59000 people
Gudivada Andhra Pradesh India City 7200 people
Guntur Andhra Pradesh India City 510000 people
Tenali Andhra Pradesh India City 150000 people
Narasaropet Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Machilipatnam Andhra Pradesh India City 180000 people
Bapatla Andhra Pradesh India City 68000 people
Nizampatam Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Chirala Andhra Pradesh India City 86000 people
Ongole Andhra Pradesh India City 170000 people
Kottapatnam Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

See complete report

 

WesternPacificWeather.com

“The western pacific may be quite but Cyclone Helen has now formed over the bay of Bengal. It is forecasted to make landfall as a severe Cyclonic storm with winds gusting up to 120kph. Or about the equivalent of Typhoon Strength Gust.” – Westernpacificweather

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0134

WTIN01 DEMS 200134
SHIPPING BULLETINE FOR MET. AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HRS FROM 0100 UTC OF 20-11-2013.
—————————————————————
THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IT FURTHER MOVED WESTWARD AND
LAY CENTRED AT 2330 HRS IST OF 19TH NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 N AND LONGITUDE 84.5 E(.)
THE SYSTEM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM
DURING NEXT 24 HRS. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME
TIME, THEN WESTSOUTHWESTWARD (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

 

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Tamil Nadu

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry

High wind waves in the range of 2.5 – 3 meters are predicted during 02:30 hrs on 19-11-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 20-11-2013 along the Kolacahl to kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :19/11/2013 Region : Andhra Pradesh

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Vizag

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m 4.0m) off Andhra Pradesh coast (Nellore to Srikakulam) during 1730 hrs of 19-11-2013 To 2330 hrs of 21-11-2013. At the Amalapuram coast, the maximum waves (nearly 4 ) Would be experienced during 21-11-2013, 1730 hrs.

Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh commencing from 20st November 2013 night.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from 20th November 2013 night.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Sea off Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen out at sea off Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to return to the coast.

Tide Predictions

Vishakapatnam

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Andaman

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Portblair

High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along the west coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.

Tide Predictions

Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Kerala

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Kozhikode

High wind waves in the range of 2.5 3.0 meters are forecasted during 0230 hours on 19-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 20-11-2013 along the Kerala coast between Vilinjam to Kasargod.
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Vizhinjam

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Lakshadweep

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Agatti

High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Minicoy

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :19/11/2013 Region : Tamil Nadu

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 3.0m) off Puducheery aand Tamil Nadu coasts (Nagapattinam to Chennai) during 1730 hrs of 19-11-2013 to 2330 hrs of 21-11-2013.

Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu commencing from 20st November 2013 night.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu coast commencing from 20th November 2013 night.

Fishermen along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast are advised to be cautious while going into sea.

Tide Predictions

Pondichery

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Nicobar
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along the west coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.

null

Tide Predictions

Car-Nicobar

images
AVHRR Image

 

 

India: Depression (IMD)/ Tropical cyclone 30W 160900Z near 10.8N 79.9E moving WNW at 9 knots (JTWC) crossed Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam (RSMC New Delhi) – 161113 1155z OUTDATED see http://wp.me/p2k2mU-29R

MOST INFORMATION ON THIS PAGE IS NOW OUT OF DATE

The latest Tropical Cyclone information at this time (12th June 2014) can be found here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/indian-ocean-india-tropical-cyclone-developing-invest-95a-091230z-nr-13-6n-68-1e-moving-ne-at-10-knots-jtwc-published-090614-1815z/

More generally here: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/category/severe-weather/

The following information left here for historic research purposes:

Depression (RSMC New Delhi)

Tropical Cyclone 30W (JTWC)

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS�RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-11-2013
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 16 NOVEMBER, 2013
BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 16 NOVEMBER, 2013.
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS AND
CROSSED TAMIL NADU COAST NEAR NAGAPATTINAM (43147) BETWEEN 0700 AND 0800 UTC AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 16
TH
NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 11.0
0
N AND
LONGITUDE 79.5
0
E, ABOUT 40 KM WEST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43147). THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE
AREA DURING NEXT 24HRS
.
.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS EMBEDDED
WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER NORTH TAMILNADU, SOUTH
INTERIOR KARNATAKA, SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH RAYALSEEMA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY AND SOUTH AANDHRA PRADESH
COASTS.
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM

Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

Time of issue: 1530 hours IST
Dated: 16-11-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB05/2013/19
Sub: Depression crossed Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam
The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards crossed
Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam between 1230 and 1330 hrs IST and lay
centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 16
th
November 2013 near latitude 11.0
0
N and
longitude 79.5
0
E, about 40 km west of Nagapattinam. The system would move west-
northwestwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during
next 24hrs.
Warning for north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh
(i)
Rainfall
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a
few places would occur over north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24
hours and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur during subsequent
24 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would
occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during next 48 hrs.
Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over south
Tamilnadu and south interior Karnataka during next 48 hrs.
(ii)
Squally/Gale Winds
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail
along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast
during next 12 hours. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60
kmph would also prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu coast during the same
period.
(iii)
Sea condition
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry
and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 12 hrs.
(iv)
Action Suggested
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 12 hrs.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 16
th
November, 2013.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/30W_131300sams.jpg

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp3013.gif

WTIO32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 017�
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 10.8N 80.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 80.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 10.9N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 79.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD OVER LAND AND
RAPIDLY ERODING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, WHICH IS NOW
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD, IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 30W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR NAGAPATTINAM, SOUTHEASTERN INDIA AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND WITHIN 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z
IS 10 FEET.�� //
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Nov, 2013 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

 

Storm Tracker Map

Tropical Depression THIRTY (30W) currently located near 10.8 N 80.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
��������probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
�Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

FQIN01 DEMS 160900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 16 NOVEMBER 2013
—————————————————————
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING(.)

PART II :-� THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
��������������� PERSISTD� AND LIKELY TO CROSSED EAST COAST OF SOUTH
INDIA
��������������� BY 16TH EVENING (.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)

ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY� TO THE S OF 05 DEG
N(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 M (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY� TO THE S OF 05 DEG
N(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 M (.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA :-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:- NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:- NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
BOB:A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WNW-LY 05/10 KTS
2)N OF 05 DEG N:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SSE-LY TO THE W
OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA SCATTRED(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M� (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WNW-LY 05/10 KTS
2)N OF 05 DEG N:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SSE-LY TO THE W
OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA SCATTRED(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M� (.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS (.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARMENT=

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :�15-11-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �Tamil Nadu 

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : �����Pondicherry

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 4.0m) off Tamil Nadu (Nagapattinam to Chennai) and Puducherry coasts during 1730 hrs of 15-11-2013 to 0530 hrs of 17-11-2013. 

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rainfall (?25 cm) would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from tonight. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls would occur over north Tamil Nadu on 16th & 17th November. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over south Tamil Nadu on 16th and 17th November, 2013.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast commencing from tonight. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would also prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu coast commencing from tonight.

� Fishermen out at sea off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts are advised to return to the coast. � Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.

Tide Predictions

Nagapatnam

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :�15-11-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �Andhra Pradesh 

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : �����Vizag

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 4.0m) off South Andhra coasts (Nellore to Kakinada) during 1730 hrs of 15-11-2013 to 0530 hrs of 17-11-2013. 

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places on 16th and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on 17th November would occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail off south Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from tonight.

Fishermen out at sea off south Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to return to the coast.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea off south Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Tide Predictions

Kakinada

images
AVHRR Image

India/Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone (VSCS/CAT3-SS) 02B / Phailin 122100Z nr 20.0N 84.7E, moving NNW at 10 knots (JTWC) Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast (IMD) – 121013 2100z

Tropical Cyclone (VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ) 02B (Two) /Phailin Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh
and Odisha Coast. (IMD)

Cyclone Phailin hit the coast near Gopalpur, Orissa state, at about 21:15 (15:45 GMT)

Predicted storm surge of at least 3m (10ft) expected to cause extensive damage – BBC News

Tropical Cyclone Phailin Could Be Packing 10-Foot Surge Dr. Jeff Masters, Weather Underground

(Scroll down for Hindi and Gujarati translations) (हिंदी और गुजराती अनुवाद के लिए नीचे स्क्रॉल)
(હિન્દી અને ગુજરાતી અનુવાદ માટે નીચે સ્ક્રોલ કરો)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: IMD) Visakhapatnam Doppler Radar (Click image for source)

RSMC-Tropical Cyclones New Delhi India

(Image: IMD)


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM
PHAILIN
ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SIX ISSUED AT 1700 UTC OF 12
TH
OCTOBER 2013 BASED ON 1500 UTC CHARTS of 12
TH
OCTOBER 2013.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM,
PHAILIN
OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 3 HOURS
WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH OCTOBER
2013 OVER NORTHWEST ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 19.1
0
N
AND LONGITUDE 85.0
0
E, CLOSE TO GOPALPUR. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
LANDFALL PROCESS HAS STARTED AND IT WILL BE COMPLETED WITHIN NEXT ONE HOUR.
AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WOULD BE 200-210 KMPH.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 6.0. INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN NORTH OF LAT 15.0
0
N AND WEST OF LONG 88.0
0
E
ALONG ODISHA AND NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -78
0
C.
DWR VISAKHAPATNAM IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM AND REPORTED CENTRE AS LATITUDE
19.1
0
N
AND LONGITUDE
85.0
0
E AT
1500
U
T
C
. GOPALPUR (43049) HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 24
HOURS PRESSURE FALL OF 24.4 HPA,
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 98 KNOTS FROM
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER GOPALPUR (ODISHA).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 105 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 120 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS
PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
ABOUT 940 HPA.
ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION
(LAT.
0
N/ LONG.
0
E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM
SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY
12-10-2013/1500
19.1/85.0
200-210 GUSTING TO 230
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12-10-2013/1800
20.2/84.3
170-180 GUSTING TO 200
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13-10-2013/0000
21.2/84.0
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
13-10-2013/0600
22.0/83.5
50-60 GUSTING TO 70
DEEP DEPRESSION

Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

Time of issue: 2130 hours IST . Dated: 12-10-2013
(Red Message)
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/34
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN over northwest adjoining westcentral Bay
of Bengal is crossing coast close to Gopalpur (Odisha)
The very severe cyclonic storm,
PHAILIN
over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of
Bengal moved north-northwestwards during past 3 hours with a speed of 15 kmph and lay centred at
2030 hrs IST of today, the 12
th
October 2013 over northwest adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal
near latitude 19.1
0
N and longitude 85.0
0
E, close to Gopalpur. Latest observations indicate that
landfall process has started and it will be completed within next one hour. At the time of landfall,
maximum sustained wind speed would be 200-210 kmph.
Estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
12-10-2013/2030
19.1/85.0
200-210 gusting to 230
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/2330
20.2/84.3
170-180 gusting to 200
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530
21.2/84.0
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1130
22.0/83.5
50-60 gusting to 70
Deep Depression
Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
(i)
Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely
heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during
next 48 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West
Bengal during next 48 hrs..
(ii)
Gale wind:
Gale
winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal
districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha would prevail at the time of
landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be
phenomenal. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above
period.
(iii)
Storm Surge Guidance:
Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide
would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and
Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
(iv)
Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh:
Extensive
damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and
communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from
flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.
(v)
Action suggested:
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along north Andhra
Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast. Total suspension of fishing operations. Large scale
evacuation of population from coastal areas. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in vulnerable
areas. People in affected areas to remain indoors
Post landfall outlook:
Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain the intensity of very severe
cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while
moving northwestwards across interior Odisha. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy
falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at
many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Gale wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph would also prevail
for 6 hours and 60-70 for subsequent 6 hours over Odisha during the same period.
The next bulletin will be issued at 0130 hrs IST of tomorrow, the 13
th October, 2013


Cyclone Phailin Odisha Helpline Number

Helpline Number for Cyclone Affected Odisha State is been Released. Please Note down the Numbers of the Control Room and Save Lifes by Sharing. Please Print or Note down the numbers Now for someone will be in need during and after the Cyclone Phailin devastation.

Odisha State Helpline Number

Odisha Central Control Room is 0674-2534177

DISTRICT CONTROL ROOMS
==========================
Mayurbhanj 06792-252759
Jajpur 06728-222648
Gajapati 06815-222943
Dhenkanal 06762-221376
Khurda 06755-220002
Keonjhar 06766-255437
Cuttack 0671-2507842
Ganjam 06811-263978
Puri 06752-223237
Kendrapara 06727-232803
Jagatsinghpur 06724-220368
Balasore 06782-26267
Bhadrak 06784-251881

India Braces for Extremely Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin

Tropical Cyclone Phailin Could Be Packing 10-Foot Surge

Tropical Cyclone Phailin, a category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, is approaching the northeast Indian coast. The massive storm has sustained winds of 155 mph (250 kph).

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, Weather Underground

Updated: 5:46 PM GMT on October 12, 2013

Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has made landfall on the northeast coast of India near the town of Gopalpur (population 7,000) at 16 UTC (noon EDT) Saturday, October 12, 2013. Phailin was weakening substantially at landfall, due to interaction with land, and was rated a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), four hours before landfall. The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall. A 938 mb pressure is what one expects to find in a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, using the “Dvorak technique” of satellite wind and pressure estimation. Satellite images show that Phailin’s intense thunderstorms have warmed and shrunk in areal coverage, and radar out of Visakhapanam, India also shows a weakening of the storm’s echoes as it pushes inland. Phailin is bringing torrential rains of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave satellite instruments.


Figure 1. Radar image of Phailin at landfall. Image credit: IMD.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a top-end Category 4 storm with winds of 150 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Damage from Phailin
Phailin is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That storm hit with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, and brought a storm surge of 5.9 meters (19 feet) to the coast. Phailin should be able to drive a similar-sized storm surge to the coast, since it is larger in areal extent than the 1999 cyclone (although somewhat weaker, with winds perhaps 20 – 30 mph lower.) Phailin’s storm surge and Category 3 to 4 winds will cause near-catastrophic damage to a 50-mile wide swath of the coast where the eyewall comes ashore, and to the right. Hurricane Katrina was weaker at landfall than Phailin, but Katrina had hurricane-force winds that covered a much larger area, making Katrina’s storm surge much more devastating than Phailin’s will be. I think the main danger from Phailin will be from its winds. I am particularly concerned about Phailin’s wind damage potential in the city of Brahmapur (population 350,000), the 58th largest city in India. Brahmapur lies about ten miles inland, and will likely experience sustained hurricane-force winds for several hours. Phailin’s flooding potential is another huge concern, as rainfall amounts of 6 – 12 inches will fall along a swath over 100 miles inland, triggering life-threatening flash flooding.

How strong was Phailin?
Questions have been raised about the India Meteorological Department (IMD) assessments of Phailin’s strength, which were considerably lower than that of the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Both centers use satellite estimates rather than direct measurements of the winds, so we don’t know which center is correct. It is true that satellite estimates using the same techniques give different results for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans–i.e., a storm with the same appearance on satellite imagery will be weaker in the Atlantic than in the Pacific (see this chart of the differences.) It may be that this is the case in the Indian Ocean as well. IMD has looked at some buoy data to try and calibrate their satellite strength estimates, but high-end tropical cyclones are uncommon enough in the Indian Ocean that I doubt we really know whether or not Indian Ocean cyclones have the same winds as a hurricane in the Atlantic with the same satellite signature. Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 10-minute average winds for their advisories, and JTWC uses 1-minute, so the winds in the IMD advisories will be lower by at least 6%, due to the longer averaging period. This issue could be cleared up if India had its own hurricane hunter aircraft; there have been some high-level discussions about India getting a C-130 aircraft like the U.S. Air Force uses to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Nari, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Nari was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Dr. Jeff Masters Weather Underground

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0213.gif

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 122100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121800Z — NEAR 19.6N 84.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 84.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 21.2N 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 22.7N 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 84.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 02B HAS MADE LANDFALL
APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTHEAST OF VISAKHPATNAM, INDIA, AND HAS
QUICKLY STARTED TO LOSE ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DUE TO THE LAND
EFFECTS. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST FURTHER INTO INDIA
AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoN Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 18.7 N 85.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

TSR Storm Tracker Map PAST AND FORECAST TRACK : Tropical Storm TWO: Storm-centered zoom at 48 hours lead

Other Reports

 

Cyclone Phailin makes landfall in India

BBC

The BBC’s Sanjoy Majumder: “The intensity of the winds has become stronger”

Related Stories

A huge cyclone that has forced as many as 500,000 people to flee their homes has made landfall in eastern India.

Winds were measured at 200 km/h (125mph) as Cyclone Phailin hit the coast near Gopalpur, Orissa state, at about 21:15 (15:45 GMT).

Authorities had predicted a storm surge of at least 3m (10ft) that was expected to cause extensive damage.

Officials say they are better prepared than in 1999 when a cyclone killed thousands of people in Orissa.

Cyclone Phailin has been classed as “very severe”, and the head of India’s Meteorological Office, LS Rathore, said it would remain in that category for six hours before losing strength.

At the scene

As we arrived in Brahmapur, just inland from where the cyclone had first hit the coast, we were met with a scene of apocalyptic devastation.

The town was in total darkness, the headlights of our vehicle illuminating felled trees and power lines blocking roads.

Store signs and other debris were being pitched high in the air by powerful storm gusts. Elaborate decorations for a major Hindu festival that people were due to celebrate this weekend were strewn across the main road.

Most shops are shuttered, with hundreds of residents now evacuated. Many streets are already flooded, and this may be only the beginning as further heavy rain is expected.

The lobby of our hotel is now covered with glass, after several gusts blew in its main windows. It looks set to be a terrifying night, as the cyclone sweeps through this town and a vast swathe of the Indian coastline.

The eye of the storm was moving at 10-15 km/h (6-9mph), he said.

The BBC’s Sanjoy Majumder reported heavy rain and high winds lashing Gopalpur as the cyclone made landfall.

‘Apocalyptic devastation’

The storm has ripped up trees and road signs, and cut power supplies in some areas. There were reports of window panes being shattered and roofs being blown off.

Five deaths were linked to the cyclone by Indian media, four attributed to falling trees and one to a house collapse.

Another BBC reporter, Andrew North, spoke of a scene of apocalyptic devastation in Brahmapur, just inland from where the cyclone reached the coast.

Store signs and other debris were being pitched high in the air by storm gusts and elaborate decorations for a major Hindu festival were strewn over the main road.

Officials had earlier said that no-one would be allowed to stay in mud and thatched houses along the coast of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh states, but some residents said they wanted to stay put.

“Many people refused to move, had to be convinced, and at times the police had to forcefully move them to safe places,” said Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde.

The army has been placed on standby for emergency and relief operations. Helicopters and food packages were ready to be dropped in the storm-affected areas.

Indian villagers seeking shelter from Cyclone Phailin, 12 October 2013 Cyclone Phailin is described as the biggest storm in the region for 14 years
People sheltering from Cyclone Phailin near Bhubaneswar, 12 October 2013 As many as 500,000 people have left their homes, many for storm shelters
Debris from storm damage at a fishing harbour in Visakhapatnam district, Andhra Pradesh, India, 12 October 2013 The storm was expected to cause extensive damage to coastal areas
Indian villagers are given food at a shelter in Ganjam district, east of Bhubaneswar, 12 October 2013 Authorities say they are now better prepared than in 1999, when a super-cyclone hit Orissa

Hours before the cyclone made landfall it was generating winds of 240 km/h (150mph) over the Bay of Bengal. Most of those evacuated were in Orissa state.

Sushant Sahoo, a resident of Orissa’s state capital, Bhubaneswar, told the BBC that it had been raining there since the morning, and the streets were empty.

“We have no electricity, it is very dark right now and very grim,” he said.

“I have dry food and candles. The local government has been good at getting everyone prepared and taking care of people.”

India’s eastern coast and Bangladesh are routinely hit by cyclonic storms between April and November that cause deaths and widespread damage to property.

In December 2011, Cyclone Thane hit the southern state of Tamil Nadu, killing dozens of people.

Map of India

A

MARITIME

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :12-10-2013 Region : OrissaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Gopalpur
Time of issue: 1600 hrs (valid for the period 1730 hrs, 12-10-2013 to 1730 hrs, 14-10-2013)It is forecasted that the wave conditions off the Odisha coast will be very rough (>4.0m) and become gradually much higher by evening hours of 12th October 2013. The wave height is forecasted to be maximum (nearly 8.5 m) between Gopalpur (Ganjam District) and Saharabedi (Jagatsingpur District) during 2330 hrs of 12 October, 2013. The swell wave heights vary in the range of 3.0 to 5.0m. The current speeds vary between 100-150 cm/sec.

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (? 25 cm) would occur over Odisha during next 48 hrs.

Gale winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of Odisha would prevail at the time of landfall.

Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha during landfall.

Fishermen out at sea along Odisha coast are advised to return to coast.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during the next 48 hours

images images
Significant Wave HeightWind Speed
images
Swell

Tide Predictions

Gopalpur

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :12-10-2013 Region : Andhra PradeshComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Vizag
Time of issue: 1600 hrs (valid for the period 1730 hrs, 12-10-2013 to 1730 hrs, 14-10-2013)It is forecasted that the wave conditions in the sea off north Andhra Pradesh would be very rough (> 4.0 m) and will become much higher during the evening hours on 12th October 2013. The wave height is forecasted to be maximum nearly 7.0 m between Baruva (Srikakulam District) and Ichchapuram (Srikakulam District) during 1730 hrs of 12 October, 2013. The swell wave heights vary in the range of 3.0 to 5.0m. The current speeds vary between 100-150 cm/sec.

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (? 25 cm) would occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs.

Gale winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh would prevail at the time of landfall.

Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during the next 48 hours.

images images
Significant Wave HeightWind Speed
images
Swell

Tide Predictions

Baruva

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :12-10-2013 Region : West Bengal
Time of issue: 1600 hrs (valid for the period 1730 hrs, 12-10-2013 to 1730 hrs, 14-10-2013)It is forecasted that the wave conditions will be rough (2.5 m 4.0m) to very rough ( >4.0 m) off West Bengal coast during the above period. The wave height is forecasted to be maximum (nearly 5.0 m) between Digha (East Midnapore District) and Fraserganj (South 24 Parganas District) during evening hours of 12 October, 2013. The swell wave heights vary in the range of 3.0 to 4.0m. The current speeds vary between 100 and 130 cm/sec.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from afternoon of 12th October.

Fishermen out at sea along West Bengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during the next 48 hours.

images images
Significant Wave HeightWind Speed
images
Swell

Tide Predictions

Sagar-Roads

images
AVHRR Image

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1231

WTIN01 DEMS 121231
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HRS FROM 1200 UTC OF 12-10-2013.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, PHAILIN OVER WESTCENTRAL &
ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND
LIES CENTRED AT 1430 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 12TH OCTOBER 2013
OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 18.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 85.5 DEG E,
ABOUT 90 KM SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR, 120 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
KALINGAPATNAM AND 220 KM SOUTHWEST OF PARADIP. IT WOULD MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COASTS
BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP, CLOSE TO GOPALPUR (ODISHA)
BY EVENING OF TODAY I.E. THE 12TH OCTOBER, 2013 AS A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 210-220 KMPH
GUSTING TO 240 KMPH.

NOTE: NEXT SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL ORIGINATE AT 0100 UTC ON
DATED 12.10.2013 IN ADDITION TO ROUTINE TWO DAILY BULLETIN.

DUTY OFFICER=

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053
FQIN01 DEMS 120053
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HRS FROM 0100 UTC OF 12-10-2013.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, PHAILIN OVER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LIES CENTRED AT 0230 HRS IST OF 12TH OCTOBER
2013 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
WITHIN HALF ADEGREE OF LATITUDE 16.9 DEG N AND LONGITUDE
87.0 DEG E, ABOUT 375 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP, 345 KM SOUTHEAST
OF GOPALPUR, AND 340 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (.)
IT WOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND
ODISHA COASTS BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP, CLOSE TO
GOPALPUR (ODISHA) BY EVENING OF TODAY I.E. THE 12TH OCTOBER, 2013
AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
OF 210-220 KMPH(. )=

END

भारत / बंगाल की खाड़ी : 10 समुद्री मील पश्चिम घूम रहा उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात ( VSCS/CAT3-SS ) 02B / Phailin 122100Z एन.आर. 20.0N 84.7E , उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश और ओडिशा तट ( आईएमडी) के लिए ( JTWC ) चक्रवात चेतावनी – 121013 2100z

उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात ( बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान ) 02B ( दो) / Phailin – Saffir-सिम्पसन स्केल पर श्रेणी 3

उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश के चक्रवात चेतावनी
और ओडिशा तट . (आईएमडी )

चक्रवात Phailin बारे में 21:15 ( 15:45 जीएमटी) में गोपालपुर , उड़ीसा , निकट तट मारा

बीबीसी समाचार – कम से कम 3 मीटर ( 10ft ) की अनुमानित वृद्धि तूफान व्यापक क्षति हो जाने की उम्मीद

डॉ. जेफ मास्टर्स , मौसम भूमिगत – उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin 10 फुट वृद्धि पैकिंग हो सकता है

( हिंदी और गुजराती अनुवाद के लिए नीचे स्क्रॉल ) ( हिंदी और गुजराती अनुवाद के लिए नीचे स्क्रॉल )
( હિન્દી અને ગુજરાતી અનુવાદ માટે નીચે સ્ક્રોલ કરો )

(छवि: wunderground.com ) 5 दिनों का पूर्वानुमान ( स्रोत के लिए छवि पर क्लिक करें )

(छवि: wunderground.com ) उपग्रह ( स्रोत के लिए छवि पर क्लिक करें )

(छवि: आईएमडी) विशाखापत्तनम डॉपलर रडार ( स्रोत के लिए छवि पर क्लिक करें )

RSMC – उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात नई दिल्ली – भारत

(छवि: आईएमडी)

उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात सलाहकार
RSMC – उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवातों , नई दिल्ली
उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान
‘ PHAILIN ‘
परामर्शी सं . छब्बीस 12 के 1700 यूटीसी में जारी
गु
अक्टूबर 2013 12 के 1500 यूटीसी चार्ट पर आधारित
गु
अक्टूबर 2013 .
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान ,
PHAILIN
कार्यभार WESTCENTRAL और आसपास के
बंगाल के उत्तर पश्चिमी खाड़ी में पिछले 3 घंटों के दौरान उत्तर NORTHWESTWARDS चले गए
एक 15 किलोमीटर प्रति घंटे की गति और आज के 1500 यूटीसी , 12 अक्टूबर पर केंद्रित लेटाओ साथ
अक्षांश 19.1 निकट बंगाल की 2013 उत्तर पश्चिमी कार्यभार सटे WESTCENTRAL खाड़ी
0
एन
और देशांतर 85.0
0
गोपालपुर के करीब ई, . ताजा टिप्पणियों से संकेत मिलता है
भूम बिछल प्रक्रिया अगले एक घंटे के भीतर शुरू कर दिया है और यह पूरा हो जाएगा .
भूम बिछल के समय, अधिकतम निरंतर हवा की गति 200-210 किलोमीटर प्रति घंटे होगी .
सेटेलाइट छायाचित्रण के अनुसार , प्रणाली की तीव्रता टी 6.0 है . तीव्र करने के लिए
बहुत तीव्र संवहन अक्षां 15.0 के उत्तर में देखा जाता है
0
लंबी 88.0 के एन और पश्चिम
0

ओडिशा और उत्तर तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश के साथ . सबसे कम बादल टॉप
तापमान ( सीटीटी ) -78 के बारे में है
0
सी.
डीडब्ल्यूआर विशाखापत्तनम ट्रैकिंग प्रणाली और अक्षांश के रूप में केन्द्र की सूचना दी है
19.1
0
एन
और देशांतर
85.0
0
ई एटी
1500
यू
टी
सी
. गोपालपुर ( 43049 ) अधिकतम 24 सूचना दी है
24.4 एचपीए के घंटे दबाव पतन ,
98 समुद्री मील की अधिकतम हवा की गति से
उत्तरपूर्वी निर्देशन गोपालपुर ( उड़ीसा ) से अधिक बताया गया है .
अधिकतम निरंतर सतही हवा की गति लगभग 105 समुद्री मील होने का अनुमान है
प्रणाली केन्द्र के आसपास 120 समुद्री मील gusting .
समुद्र की स्थिति है
प्रणाली केन्द्र आस अभूतपूर्व . अनुमान केन्द्रीय दबाव है
940 एचपीए के बारे में .
प्रणाली की अनुमानित ट्रैक और तीव्रता तालिका में नीचे दिए गए हैं:
दिनांक / समय ( यूटीसी )
स्थिति
( LAT.
0
एन / लंबी .
0
ई)
निरंतर अधिकतम
सतही हवा की गति ( किमी प्रति घंटे )
श्रेणी
12-10-2013/1500
19.1/85.0
200-210 gusting के लिए 230
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान
12-10-2013/1800
20.2/84.3
200 170-180 gusting
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान
13-10-2013/0000
21.2/84.0
80-90 gusting के लिए 100
चक्रवाती तूफ़ान
13-10-2013/0600
22.0/83.5
50-60 gusting के लिए 70
गहरे अवसाद

भारतीय तटरक्षक के लिए चक्रवात चेतावनी

मुद्दे का समय : 2130 घंटे IST . दिनांक: 2013/12/10
(लाल संदेश )
बुलेटिन नहीं : बॉब 04/2013/34
उप: उत्तर पश्चिम सटे westcentral खाड़ी के ऊपर बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान ‘ PHAILIN ‘
बंगाल तट करीब गोपालपुर तक ( ओडिशा ) पार कर रहा है की
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान ,
PHAILIN
के westcentral और आसपास के उत्तर पश्चिमी खाड़ी के ऊपर
बंगाल में 15 किमी प्रति घंटे की गति के साथ पिछले 3 घंटों के दौरान उत्तर northwestwards ले जाया गया और पर केंद्रित रखना
आज 2030 hrs IST , 12
वें
बंगाल के उत्तर पश्चिमी सटे westcentral खाड़ी पर अक्टूबर 2013
अक्षांश 19.1 पास
0
एन और देशांतर 85.0
0
गोपालपुर के करीब ई, . नवीनतम टिप्पणियों से संकेत मिलता है कि
भूम बिछल प्रक्रिया अगले एक घंटे के भीतर शुरू कर दिया है और इसे पूरा कर लिया जाएगा . भूम बिछल के समय,
अधिकतम निरंतर हवा की गति 200-210 किलोमीटर प्रति घंटे होगी .
प्रणाली की अनुमानित ट्रैक और तीव्रता से नीचे टेबल में दिए गए हैं:
दिनांक / समय (आईएसटी)
स्थिति
( Lat.
0
एन / लांग .
0
ई)
निरंतर अधिकतम सतह
हवा की गति ( किमी प्रति घंटे )
श्रेणी
12-10-2013/2030
19.1/85.0
200-210 gusting को 230
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान
12-10-2013/2330
20.2/84.3
200 से 170-180 gusting
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान
13-10-2013/0530
21.2/84.0
80-90 gusting से 100
चक्रवाती तूफ़ान
13-10-2013/1130
22.0/83.5
50-60 gusting से 70
डीप डिप्रेशन
ओडिशा , आंध्र प्रदेश और पश्चिम बंगाल के लिए चेतावनी
( मैं )
कुछ स्थानों पर बहुत भारी गिरता लिए भारी साथ ज्यादातर स्थानों पर वर्षा और बेहद अलग किया
भारी गिरता ( ≥ 25 सेमी ) के दौरान ओडिशा और उत्तरी तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश में घटित होता है
अगले 48 घंटे . बहुत भारी वर्षा को भारी पृथक पश्चिम के तटीय क्षेत्रों में घटित होता है
अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान बंगाल ..
(दो)
आंधी हवा:
आंधी
हवाओं के साथ 235 के लिए 210-220 किमी प्रति घंटे gusting तक पहुँचने की गति और बंद तटीय
उत्तर तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश और दक्षिण उड़ीसा के जिलों के समय में प्रबल होगा
भूम बिछल . साथ और ओडिशा और उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश तट से दूर समुद्र के राज्य होगा
उल्लेखनीय . यह ऊपर के दौरान पश्चिम बंगाल के तट के साथ और बंद बहुत ही किसी न किसी को किसी न किसी तरह हो जाएगा
अवधि .
(तीन)
तूफान बढ़ने मार्गदर्शन:
3.0-3.5 मीटर की ऊंचाई के साथ तूफान बढ़ने . खगोलीय ज्वार ऊपर
ओडिशा के गंजम , खुर्दा , पुरी और जगतसिंहपुर जिलों के निचले इलाकों पाट और होता
भूम बिछल के दौरान आंध्र प्रदेश के श्रीकाकुलम जिले .
(चार)
ओडिशा और आसपास के उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश में उम्मीद की क्षति:
व्यापक
कच्चे मकानों को नुकसान . पुरानी इमारतों को कुछ नुकसान . बड़े पैमाने पर बिजली का विघटन और
संचार लाइनों . रेल और व्यापक बाढ़ की वजह से सड़क यातायात के विघटन . से संभावित खतरा
मलबे उड़ान . भागने मार्गों की बाढ़. कृषि फसलों को व्यापक क्षति .
( वी )
कार्रवाई का सुझाव दिया है :
मछुआरों को उत्तरी आंध्र के साथ समुद्र में उद्यम के लिए नहीं की सलाह दी है
प्रदेश , ओडिशा और पश्चिम बंगाल के तट . मछली पकड़ने की कार्रवाई की कुल निलंबन . बड़े पैमाने पर
तटीय क्षेत्रों से आबादी की निकासी . चपेट में रेल और सड़क यातायात की कुल निलंबन
क्षेत्रों . प्रभावित इलाकों में लोग घर के भीतर रहने के लिए
भूम बिछल दृष्टिकोण पोस्ट :
यहां तक ​​भूम बिछल के बाद सिस्टम बहुत गंभीर की तीव्रता बनाए रखने की संभावना है
चक्रवाती 6 घंटे के लिए तूफान और धीरे – धीरे बाद के 6 घंटे के समय में एक चक्रवाती तूफान में कमजोर
आंतरिक ओडिशा भर northwestwards घूम रहा है. भारी साथ सबसे अधिक स्थानों पर अपने प्रभाव वर्षा के तहत
कुछ जगहों पर गिर जाता है और बहुत भारी अलग स्थानों पर गिरता ओडिशा खत्म हो जाएगा . पर वर्षा
बहुत भारी फ़ाल्स पृथक भारी के साथ कई जगहों पर भी उत्तर तटीय आंध्र खत्म हो जाएगा
प्रदेश , छत्तीसगढ़ और झारखंड . 100-120 किलोमीटर प्रति घंटे तक पहुंच आंधी हवा की गति भी प्रबल होगा
6 घंटे और इसी अवधि के दौरान ओडिशा ओवर बाद 6 घंटे के लिए 60-70 के लिए .
अगले बुलेटिन 13 , कल की IST 0130 बजे जारी किया जाएगा
अक्तूबर , 2013

टी सी ए सी बुलेटिन
मनाया और बोलचाल ट्रैक
चक्रवात पवन पूर्वानुमान
तूफान बढ़ने भविष्यवाणी मॉडल
चक्रवात के नवीनतम उपग्रह चित्रण
NWP गाइडेंस

चक्रवात Phailin ओडिशा हेल्पलाइन नंबर

ओडिशा राज्य का विमोचन किया गया है प्रभावित चक्रवात के लिए हेल्पलाइन नंबर . कंट्रोल रूम का नंबर लिख लो और साझा द्वारा Lifes सहेजें कृपया . किसी के दौरान और चक्रवात Phailin तबाही के बाद जरूरत होगी के लिए अब संख्या मुद्रित या नीचे कृपया ध्यान दें .

ओडिशा राज्य हेल्पलाइन नंबर

ओडिशा सेंट्रल कंट्रोल रूम 0674-2534177 है

जिला नियंत्रण कक्ष
==========================
मयूरभंज 06792-252759
जाजपुर 06728-222648
गजपति 06815-222943
ढेंकानाल 06762-221376
खुर्दा 06755-220002
क्योंझर 06766-255437
कटक 0671-2507842
गंजम 06811-263978
पुरी 06752-223237
केंद्रपाड़ा 06727-232803
जगतसिंहपुर 06724-220368
बालासोर 06782-26267
भद्रक 06784-251881

अत्यंत खतरनाक उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin के लिए भारत ब्रेसिज़

उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin 10 फुट वृद्धि पैकिंग हो सकता है

उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin , Saffir-सिम्पसन स्केल पर एक वर्ग 5 , उत्तर पूर्व भारतीय तट के करीब पहुंच गया है . भारी तूफान 155 मील प्रति घंटे ( 250 किमी ) की हवाओं कायम है .

द्वारा प्रकाशित किया गया था : डॉ. जेफ मास्टर्स , मौसम भूमिगत

Updated : 5:46 PM GMT 12 अक्टूबर 2013 पर

“बहुत खतरनाक उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin 16 यूटीसी ( दोपहर EDT ) शनिवार, 12 अक्तूबर, 2013 को गोपालपुर ( जनसंख्या 7000 ) के शहर के पास भारत के पूर्वोत्तर तट पर भूम बिछल बनाया गया है . Phailin भूमि के साथ बातचीत के कारण , भूम बिछल में काफी कमजोर था , और चार घंटे भूम बिछल से पहले संयुक्त तूफान चेतावनी केंद्र ( JTWC ) से 140 मील प्रति घंटे हवाओं के साथ एक श्रेणी 4 तूफान दर्जा दिया गया था . आंख के रूप में गोपालपुर में 938 एमबी पर बाहर तली दबाव पर पारित किया है, और शहर आईव़ोल में , 85 मील प्रति घंटे तक gusting , 56 मील प्रति घंटे की निरंतर हवाओं की सूचना दी. एक 938 एमबी दबाव एक उपग्रह हवा और दबाव के आकलन के ” ड्वोरक तकनीक ” का इस्तेमाल करते हुए 140 मील प्रति घंटे हवाओं के साथ एक श्रेणी 4 तूफान में खोजने के लिए क्या उम्मीद है . यह अंतर्देशीय धक्का के रूप में उपग्रह चित्र Phailin की तीव्र गरज गरम और क्षेत्रीय कवरेज में सिकुड़ , और Visakhapanam के बाहर रडार है कि दिखाने के लिए, भारत में भी तूफान की गूँज के एक कमजोर से पता चलता है . Phailin के रूप में माइक्रोवेव उपग्रह उपकरणों द्वारा अनुमानित प्रति घंटे एक इंच से अधिक की मूसलाधार बारिश ला रहा है .

चित्रा 1 . Phailin के रडार छवि भूम बिछल पर . छवि क्रेडिट : आईएमडी .

चित्रा 2 . 12 अक्टूबर 2013 को लगभग 07:30 यूटीसी पर लिया उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात Phailin के MODIS उपग्रह छवि , . समय, Phailin 150 मील प्रति घंटे की हवाओं के साथ एक शीर्ष अंत श्रेणी 4 तूफान था . छवि क्रेडिट : नासा .

Phailin से नुकसान
Phailin महान 1999 ओडिशा चक्रवात के बाद से , चौदह वर्षों में भारत को प्रभावित करने के लिए सबसे मजबूत उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात है . यही कारण है कि तूफान में 155 मील प्रति घंटे की अधिकतम निरंतर हवाओं के साथ मारा , और तट के लिए 5.9 मीटर ( 19 फुट) के एक तूफान बढ़ने लाया . यह ( . कुछ हद तक कमजोर हालांकि , शायद 20 हवाओं के साथ – 30 मील प्रति घंटे कम ) 1999 चक्रवात से क्षेत्रीय सीमा में बड़ा है क्योंकि Phailin , तट के लिए एक समान आकार के तूफान बढ़ने ड्राइव करने में सक्षम होना चाहिए Phailin के तूफान बढ़ने और श्रेणी 3 से 4 हवाओं के पास आपत्तिजनक आईव़ोल तट पर आता है जहां तट से 50 मील व्यापक कटी हुई घास को नुकसान , और सही करने के लिए प्रेरित करेगा . तूफान कैटरीना Phailin से भूम बिछल में कमजोर था , लेकिन कैटरीना कैटरीना तूफान बढ़ने और अधिक विनाशकारी Phailin का होगा से कर रही है, एक बहुत बड़े क्षेत्र को कवर किया है कि तूफान बल हवाओं था . मैं Phailin से मुख्य खतरा अपनी हवाओं से होगा. मैं विशेष रूप से ब्रह्मपुर ( आबादी 350,000 ) , भारत के सबसे बड़े 58 वें शहर के शहर में Phailin की हवा क्षति क्षमता के बारे में चिंतित हूँ . ब्रह्मपुर दस मील की दूरी पर अंतर्देशीय निहित है , और संभावना कई घंटे के लिए निरंतर तूफान बल हवाओं का अनुभव होगा . Phailin के बाढ़ संभावित 6 की वर्षा मात्रा के रूप में एक और बड़ी चिंता का विषय है – 12 इंच जीवन के लिए खतरा फ्लैश बाढ़ ट्रिगर , अंतर्देशीय 100 मील की दूरी पर एक कटी हुई घास के साथ गिर जाएगी .

Phailin कैसे मजबूत था ?
प्रश्न अमेरिका संयुक्त तूफान चेतावनी केंद्र ( JTWC ) की तुलना में काफी कम थे जो भारतीय मौसम विज्ञान विभाग (आईएमडी ) Phailin की ताकत का आकलन, के बारे में उठाया गया है . दोनों केंद्रों उपग्रह अनुमान के बजाय हवाओं के प्रत्यक्ष माप का उपयोग , तो हम सही है , जो केंद्र में पता नहीं है . यानी , उपग्रह चित्रण पर ही उपस्थिति ( मतभेद के इस चार्ट को देखने प्रशांत में से अटलांटिक में कमजोर हो जाएगा के साथ एक तूफान – यह एक ही तकनीक का उपयोग कर उपग्रह अनुमान अटलांटिक और प्रशांत महासागरों के लिए अलग परिणाम दे कि सच है. ) यह इस रूप में अच्छी तरह से हिंद महासागर में मामला है कि हो सकता है. आईएमडी उनके उपग्रह ताकत का अनुमान कोशिश करते हैं और जांच करने के लिए कुछ बोया डेटा पर देखा गया है , लेकिन उच्च अंत उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवातों मैं हम वास्तव में हिंद महासागर चक्रवात में एक तूफान के रूप में एक ही हवाओं है या नहीं, पता शक है कि हिंद महासागर में काफी असामान्य हैं एक ही उपग्रह हस्ताक्षर के साथ अटलांटिक . विचार करने के लिए एक और बात आईएमडी उनके परामर्श के लिए 10 मिनट की औसत हवाओं का उपयोग करता है , और JTWC 1 मिनट का उपयोग करता है , आईएमडी परामर्श में हवाओं अब औसत अवधि के कारण कम से कम 6 % से कम हो जाएगा . भारत की अपनी तूफान शिकारी विमान था , तो यह समस्या को साफ किया जा सकता है, अमेरिकी वायु सेना की तरह एक सी -130 विमान उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवातों में उड़ान भरने और वास्तविक हवाओं का माप लेने के लिए उपयोग करता हो रही है भारत के बारे में कुछ उच्च स्तरीय विचार विमर्श किया गया है .

चित्रा 3 . 12 अक्टूबर 2013 को लगभग 02:30 यूटीसी पर लिया आंधी नारी के MODIS उपग्रह छवि , . समय, नारी 90 मील प्रति घंटे की हवाओं के साथ एक श्रेणी 1 तूफान था . छवि क्रेडिट : नासा .

“- डॉ. जेफ मास्टर्स – भूमिगत मौसम

संयुक्त तूफान चेतावनी केंद्र ( JTWC )

गूगल अर्थ ग्राफिक ओवरले

WTIO31 PGTW 122100

क / GENADMIN / संयुक्त आंधी WRNCEN पर्ल हार्बर हाई / /
Subj / उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात 02B ( PHAILIN ) चेतावनी एन.आर. 016 / /
RMKS /
1 . उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात 02B ( PHAILIN ) चेतावनी एन.आर. 016
NORTHIO में 01 सक्रिय उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात
अधिकतम एक मिनट के औसत के आधार पर हवाओं निरंतर
खुले पानी में मान्य पवन radii ही

चेतावनी की स्थिति:
121800Z — निकट 19.6N 84.9E
आंदोलन पिछले छह घंटे – 10 टी एस एटी 335 डिग्री
030 समुद्री मील भीतर करने के लिए सही स्थिति
स्थिति उपग्रह द्वारा स्थित सेंटर पर आधारित
वर्तमान पवन वितरण :
अधिकतम निरंतर हवाओं – 100 के.टी. , gusts 125 के.टी.
खुले पानी में मान्य पवन radii ही
भूमि पर एक महत्वपूर्ण उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात के रूप में dissipating
19.6N 84.9E : मंज़ूर दोहराएँ

पूर्वानुमान :
पर मान्य 12 घंटे , :
130600Z — 21.2N 84.0E
065 के.टी. , gusts 080 के.टी. – मैक्स हवाओं निरंतर
खुले पानी में मान्य पवन radii ही
भूमि पर एक महत्वपूर्ण उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात के रूप में dissipating
24 मानव संसाधन मंज़ूर सदिश : 335 डीईजी / 08 KTS

पर मान्य 24 घंटे , :
131800Z — 22.7N 83.3E
अधिकतम निरंतर हवाओं – 030 के.टी. , gusts 040 के.टी.
खुले पानी में मान्य पवन radii ही
भूमि पर एक महत्वपूर्ण उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात के रूप में व्यस्त

टिप्पणी:
20.0N 84.7E निकट 122100Z स्थिति .
उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात 02B ( PHAILIN ) , लगभग 266 समुद्री मील दूर स्थित
कोलकाता, भारत के दक्षिण पश्चिम उत्तर उत्तर – पच्छिम नज़र रखी है
पिछले छह घंटे से अधिक 10 समुद्री मील में . एनिमेटेड बढ़ाया अवरक्त
उपग्रह चित्रण टीसी 02B भूम बिछल बनाया पता चलता है कि
लगभग 135 समुद्री मील दूर VISAKHPATNAM , भारत के पूर्वोत्तर , और
जल्दी भूमि के कारण संवहनी संगठन खोने के लिए शुरू
प्रभाव . टीसी 02B भारत में उत्तर पश्चिमी आगे ट्रैक करने के लिए पूर्वानुमान
और देश के घर्षण प्रभाव के रूप में खराब जारी
इसके अलावा एक के रूप में अपनी लंपटता के लिए अग्रणी प्रणाली इरोड
अगले 24 घंटों के भीतर महत्वपूर्ण उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात . यह वह जगह है
संयुक्त आंधी WRNCEN मोती से इस प्रणाली को अंतिम चेतावनी
बंदरगाह हाई . प्रणाली निकट के संकेत के लिए नजर रखी जाएगी
पुनर्जनन . / /
NNNN

टीएसआर लॉगऑन हिंद महासागर : 12 अक्टूबर को जारी किए तूफान चेतावनी , 2013 12:00 GMT

वर्तमान में 18.7 एन 85.3 ई निकट स्थित सुपर चक्रवाती तूफान PHAILIN ( 02B ) दिए नेतृत्व समय (ओं ) पर निम्न संभावना (ओं ) के लिए भूमि हड़ताल करने के लिए पूर्वानुमान है :

रेड अलर्ट देश (ओं ) या प्रांत (ओं )
भारत
कैट 1 के लिए संभावना या इसके बाद के 12 घंटे के भीतर 95 % है
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 100 % है
रेड अलर्ट सिटी (एस) और टाउन (ओं )
ब्रह्मपुर ( 19.3 एन, 84.9 ई)
ऊपर कैट 1 या के लिए संभावना 12 घंटे के भीतर 90 % है
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 100 % है

पीला चेतावनी सिटी (एस) और टाउन (ओं )
पुरी ( 19.8 एन, 85.9 ई)
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 100 % है
नौपाडा ( 18.6 एन, 84.2 ई)
कैट 1 के लिए संभावना या इसके बाद के 12 घंटे के भीतर 20 % है
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 100 % है
कटक ( 20.5 एन, 85.9 ई)
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 85% है
विशाखापट्टनम (17.8 एन, 83.3 ई)
टीएस के लिए संभावना वर्तमान में 55 % है

ध्यान दें कि
रेड अलर्ट ( गंभीर ) कैट 1 या % 31 के बीच और 100 % संभावना के लिए ऊपर है .
पीला चेतावनी ( बुलंद ) कैट 1 या ऊपर से 10 % और 30 % संभावना है , या टीएस के बीच ऊपर 50 % संभावना है .
कैट 1 कम से कम 74 मील प्रति घंटे की तेज चक्रवाती तूफान शक्ति हवाओं का मतलब है , 119 किमी / घंटा या 64 समुद्री मील 1 मिनट निरंतर.
टीएस कम से कम 39 मील प्रति घंटे की उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान शक्ति हवाओं का मतलब है , 63 किमी / घंटा या 34 समुद्री मील 1 मिनट निरंतर.

चित्रमय पूर्वानुमान जानकारी और अधिक जानकारी के लिए http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ कृपया देखें

तूफान ट्रैकर मानचित्र

टीएसआर तूफान ट्रैकर मानचित्र अतीत और पूर्वानुमान ट्रैक : उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान दो: 48 घंटे में तूफान केन्द्रित ज़ूम नेतृत्व

अन्य रिपोर्ट

चक्रवात Phailin भारत में भूम बिछल बनाता है

बीबीसी 12 अक्टूबर 2013 अंतिम 20:14 BST ( 1914Z जीएमटी / यूटीसी ) में अद्यतन

बीबीसी के संजय मजुमदार : ” हवाओं की तीव्रता मजबूत हो गया है ”

मुख्य कहानी पढ़ने जारी
संबंधित आलेख

चक्रवात Phailin : तस्वीरों में
एनिमेटेड गाइड : तूफान
बीबीसी मौसम चक्रवात अद्यतन देखो

के रूप में कई 500.000 के रूप में लोगों को अपने घरों से पलायन करने के लिए मजबूर कर दिया है कि एक विशाल चक्रवात पूर्वी भारत में भूम बिछल बनाया गया है .

चक्रवात Phailin बारे में 21:15 ( 15:45 जीएमटी) में गोपालपुर , उड़ीसा , निकट तट मारा हवाओं 200 किमी / घंटा ( 125mph ) में मापा गया.

अधिकारियों व्यापक क्षति हो जाने की उम्मीद थी कि कम से कम 3 मीटर ( 10ft ) के एक तूफान बढ़ने की भविष्यवाणी की थी .

अधिकारियों का कहना है कि वे बेहतर एक चक्रवात उड़ीसा में हजारों लोगों के मारे गए जब 1999 में से तैयार कर रहे हैं.

चक्रवात Phailin ‘ बहुत गंभीर ‘ के रूप में वर्गीकृत है, और भारत के मौसम विज्ञान कार्यालय के सिर , एलएस राठौड़ , यह ताकत खोने से पहले छह घंटे के लिए उस श्रेणी में रहेगा कहा गया है .

मुख्य कहानी पढ़ने जारी
घटनास्थल पर
एंड्रयू उत्तर बीबीसी संवाददाता, उड़ीसा

हम ब्रह्मपुर में पहुंचे , सिर्फ अंतर्देशीय चक्रवात पहली तट मारा था , जहां से हम भविष्य सूचक तबाही का एक दृश्य के साथ मिले थे .

शहर के कुल अंधेरे में था , हमारे वाहन रोशन की हेडलाइट्स पेड़ और सड़कों को अवरुद्ध बिजली लाइनों गिराया .

स्टोर के संकेत और अन्य मलबे शक्तिशाली तूफान आमंत्रित गुट द्वारा हवा में उच्च खड़ा किया जा रहा था. लोगों को इस सप्ताह के अंत का जश्न मनाने के कारण थे कि एक प्रमुख हिंदू त्योहार के लिए भव्य सजावट मुख्य सड़क भर में बिखरे हुए थे .

ज्यादातर दुकानों अब खाली निवासियों के सैकड़ों के साथ , बंद कर रहे हैं . कई सड़कों पर पहले से ही पानी भर रहे हैं , और आगे भारी बारिश की उम्मीद है के रूप में यह सिर्फ शुरुआत हो सकती है.

कई gusts के अपने मुख्य खिड़कियों में फूंका बाद हमारे होटल की लॉबी अब , गिलास के साथ कवर किया जाता है . चक्रवात इस शहर और भारतीय समुद्र तट के एक विशाल पट्टी के माध्यम से sweeps के रूप में यह एक भयानक रात होने के लिए तैयार दिखता है.

तूफान की आंख 10-15 किमी / घंटा ( 6 9mph ) पर चल रहा था , उन्होंने कहा.

बीबीसी के संजय मजुमदार भारी बारिश की सूचना दी और चक्रवात के रूप में गोपालपुर दंड उच्च हवाओं भूम बिछल बनाया .

‘ Apocalyptic तबाही ‘

तूफान के पेड़ और सड़क लक्षण फट , और कुछ क्षेत्रों में बिजली की आपूर्ति में कटौती की है . खिड़की के शीशे को तोड़ दिया जा रहा है और छतों से उड़ा जा रहा है की रिपोर्ट नहीं थे .

पांच लोगों की मृत्यु भारतीय मीडिया द्वारा चक्रवात से जुड़े थे , चार एक मकान ढहने पर गिरने के पेड़ और एक के लिए जिम्मेदार ठहराया .

एक अन्य बीबीसी संवाददाता एंड्रयू नॉर्थ , बस अंतर्देशीय चक्रवात तट पर पहुंच गया , जहां से ब्रह्मपुर में apocalyptic तबाही का एक दृश्य की बात की थी .

स्टोर के संकेत और अन्य मलबे तूफान gusts और एक प्रमुख हिंदू त्योहार के लिए भव्य सजावट से हवा में उच्च खड़ा किया जा रहा था मुख्य सड़क पर बिखरे हुए थे .

अधिकारियों का कहना है कि पहले कोई भी उड़ीसा और आंध्र प्रदेश राज्यों के तट के साथ मिट्टी और फूस के घरों में रहने की अनुमति दी जाएगी कि कहा गया था, लेकिन कुछ निवासियों वे लगा रहना चाहता था.

” कई लोगों को स्थानांतरित करने के लिए आश्वस्त किया था इनकार कर दिया , और कई बार पुलिस जबरदस्ती सुरक्षित स्थानों के लिए उन्हें ले जाने के लिए किया था , ” गृह मंत्री सुशील कुमार शिंदे ने कहा .

सेना आपात स्थिति और राहत कार्यों के लिए स्टैंडबाय पर रखा गया है . हेलीकाप्टर और भोजन संकुल तूफान प्रभावित क्षेत्रों में छोड़ा जा करने के लिए तैयार थे .

चक्रवात Phailin से शरण की मांग भारतीय ग्रामीणों को , 12 अक्टूबर 2013 चक्रवात Phailin 14 साल के लिए इस क्षेत्र में सबसे बड़ा तूफान के रूप में वर्णित है

500,000 लोगों के रूप में कई के रूप में भुवनेश्वर, 12 अक्टूबर, 2013 के पास चक्रवात Phailin से पनाह लोग तूफान आश्रयों के लिए कई अपने घरों को छोड़ दिया है

विशाखापट्टनम जिले , आंध्र प्रदेश , भारत , 12 अक्टूबर 2013 तूफान में एक मछली पकड़ने के बंदरगाह में तूफान क्षति से मलबा तटीय क्षेत्रों को व्यापक क्षति हो जाने की उम्मीद थी

एक सुपर चक्रवात उड़ीसा मारा जब भारतीय ग्रामीणों अक्टूबर 2013 अधिकारियों वे अब बेहतर 1999 में से तैयार कर रहे हैं कहने के गंजम जिले , भुवनेश्वर के पूर्व , 12 में एक आश्रय , पर भोजन दिया जाता है

चक्रवात भूम बिछल बनाया घंटे पहले यह बंगाल की खाड़ी के ऊपर 240 किमी / घंटा ( 150mph ) की बयार पैदा किया गया था . खाली उन में से अधिकांश उड़ीसा राज्य में थे .

सुशांत साहू , उड़ीसा के राज्य की राजधानी भुवनेश्वर के एक निवासी , यह सुबह के बाद से वहां रह रहा था , और सड़कों खाली थे कि बीबीसी को बताया .

“हम बिजली नहीं है , यह अभी और बहुत गंभीर बहुत अंधेरा है , ” उन्होंने कहा .

” मुझे लगता है कि सूखे भोजन और मोमबत्तियों है . स्थानीय सरकार हर कोई तैयार हो रही है और लोगों का ख्याल रखने में अच्छा कर रहा है.”

भारत के पूर्वी तट और बांग्लादेश नियमित कि अप्रैल और नवंबर के बीच चक्रवाती तूफान से प्रभावित हैं कारण होने वाली मौतों और संपत्ति को व्यापक क्षति .

दिसंबर 2011 में , चक्रवात ठाणे दर्जनों लोगों की मौत हो गई , तमिलनाडु के दक्षिणी राज्य मारा .

भारत के मानचित्र

नौवहन

हिंद महासागर पूर्वानुमान प्रणाली ( INDOFOS )

उच्च पवन वेव चेतावनी

अंक तिथि : 2013/12/10 क्षेत्र: उड़ीसा

टिप्पणियों के साथ लहर पूर्वानुमान के comparisions : गोपालपुर
1600 बजे ( अवधि 1730 बजे , 2013/12/10 को 1730 बजे , 14-10-2013 के लिए वैध ) : इस मुद्दे का समय

यह ओडिशा तट से दूर लहर की स्थिति बहुत कठिन हो (> 4.0m ) और 12 अक्टूबर 2013 की शाम के समय से धीरे – धीरे काफी ज्यादा हो जाएगा कि पूर्वानुमानित है . लहर ऊंचाई 12 अक्टूबर 2013 से 2330 बजे के दौरान गोपालपुर ( गंजाम जिले ) और Saharabedi ( जगतसिंहपुर जिला ) के बीच अधिक से अधिक ( लगभग 8.5 मीटर) होने का अनुमान है . प्रफुल्लित लहर ऊंचाइयों 5.0m को 3.0 की रेंज में भिन्नता है. वर्तमान गति 100-150 सेमी / सेक के बीच बदलती हैं.

कुछ स्थानों पर बहुत भारी गिरता तक भारी और पृथक अत्यंत भारी गिर जाता है ? ( 25 सेमी ) के साथ सबसे अधिक स्थानों पर वर्षा अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान ओडिशा में घटित होगा .

ओडिशा के तटीय जिलों के साथ और बंद 235 के लिए 210-220 किमी प्रति घंटे gusting तक पहुँचने आंधी हवाओं की गति भूम बिछल के समय में प्रबल होगा .

3.0-3.5 मीटर की ऊंचाई के साथ तूफान बढ़ने . खगोलीय ज्वार ऊपर भूम बिछल दौरान गंजम , खुर्दा , पुरी और ओडिशा के जगतसिंहपुर जिलों के निचले इलाकों पाट देना होगा .

ओडिशा तट के साथ समुद्र में मछुआरों बाहर तट पर लौटने की सलाह दी है .

मछुआरों को अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान समुद्र में उद्यम के लिए नहीं की सलाह दी है
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ज्वार भविष्यवाणियों

गोपालपुर

उच्च पवन वेव चेतावनी

अंक तिथि : 2013/12/10 क्षेत्र: आंध्र प्रदेश

टिप्पणियों के साथ लहर पूर्वानुमान के comparisions : विजाग
1600 बजे ( अवधि 1730 बजे , 2013/12/10 को 1730 बजे , 14-10-2013 के लिए वैध ) : इस मुद्दे का समय

यह उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश से दूर समुद्र में लहर की स्थिति बहुत कठिन होगा कि पूर्वानुमानित (> 4.0 मीटर) और 12 अक्टूबर 2013 को शाम के समय के दौरान काफी ज्यादा हो जाएगा . लहर ऊंचाई 12 अक्टूबर से 1730 बजे के दौरान अधिकतम लगभग 7.0 बरुवा के बीच मीटर ( श्रीकाकुलम जिला ) और Ichchapuram ( श्रीकाकुलम जिला ) , 2013 होने का अनुमान है . प्रफुल्लित लहर ऊंचाइयों 5.0m को 3.0 की रेंज में भिन्नता है. वर्तमान गति 100-150 सेमी / सेक के बीच बदलती हैं.

कुछ स्थानों पर बहुत भारी गिरता तक भारी और पृथक अत्यंत भारी गिर जाता है ? ( 25 सेमी ) के साथ सबसे अधिक स्थानों पर वर्षा अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान उत्तर तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश में घटित होता है .

उत्तर तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश के तटीय जिलों के साथ और बंद 235 के लिए 210-220 किमी प्रति घंटे gusting तक पहुँचने आंधी हवाओं की गति भूम बिछल के समय में प्रबल होगा .

3.0-3.5 मीटर की ऊंचाई के साथ तूफान बढ़ने . खगोलीय ज्वार ऊपर भूम बिछल के दौरान आंध्र प्रदेश के श्रीकाकुलम जिले के निचले क्षेत्रों पाट देना होगा .

उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश तट के साथ समुद्र में मछुआरों बाहर तट पर लौटने की सलाह दी है . मछुआरों को अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान समुद्र में उद्यम के लिए नहीं की सलाह दी है .
छवियों छवियों
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ज्वार भविष्यवाणियों

बरुवा

उच्च पवन वेव चेतावनी

अंक तिथि : 2013/12/10 क्षेत्र: पश्चिम बंगाल
1600 बजे ( अवधि 1730 बजे , 2013/12/10 को 1730 बजे , 14-10-2013 के लिए वैध ) : इस मुद्दे का समय

उक्त अवधि के दौरान पश्चिम बंगाल के तट पर (> 4.0 मीटर) बहुत मोटा करने के लिए – यह लहर की स्थिति ( 4.0m 2.5 मीटर) किसी न किसी तरह किया जाएगा कि पूर्वानुमानित है . लहर ऊंचाई 12 अक्टूबर 2013 की शाम के समय के दौरान दीघा ( पूर्वी मिदनापुर जिला ) और Fraserganj ( दक्षिण 24 परगना जिला ) के बीच ( लगभग 5.0 मीटर) अधिकतम होने का अनुमान है . प्रफुल्लित लहर ऊंचाइयों 4.0m को 3.0 की रेंज में भिन्नता है. वर्तमान गति 100 और 130 सेमी / सेक के बीच बदलती हैं.

बहुत भारी वर्षा को भारी पृथक 12 अक्टूबर की दोपहर से शुरू पश्चिम बंगाल के तटीय क्षेत्रों में घटित होता है .

पश्चिम बंगाल के तट के साथ समुद्र में मछुआरों बाहर तट पर लौटने की सलाह दी है . मछुआरों को अगले 48 घंटे के दौरान समुद्र में उद्यम के लिए नहीं की सलाह दी है .
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सागर – सड़क

छवियों
AVHRR छवि

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1231

WTIN01 DEMS 121231
मुलाकात के लिए नौवहन बुलेटिन . भूमध्य रेखा के क्षेत्र आठवीं उत्तर
2013/12/10 के 1200 यूटीसी से 12 घंटे के लिए मान्य है.
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान , WESTCENTRAL और कार्यभार PHAILIN
बंगाल के आसपास के उत्तर पश्चिमी खाड़ी NORTHWESTWARDS चले गए और
आज के 1430 बजे केंद्रित IST झूठ , 12 वीं अक्टूबर 2013
उत्तर पश्चिम और बंगाल के निकटवर्ती पश्चिम मध्य खाड़ी के ऊपर
अक्षां के आधे से एक डिग्री के भीतर . 18.5 डीईजी एन और देशांतर 85.5 डीईजी ई,
90 किमी के बारे में गोपालपुर के दक्षिण पूर्व में 120 किलोमीटर पूर्वी उत्तर पूर्व
KALINGAPATNAM और पारादीप में 220 किमी दक्षिण पश्चिम . यह कदम होगा
NORTHWESTWARDS और पार उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश और ओडिशा तटों
KALINGAPATNAM और पारादीप के बीच , गोपालपुर ( ओडिशा ) के करीब
टुडे यानी की शाम तक एक बहुत ही गंभीर के रूप में 12 अक्टूबर , 2013
210-220 किलोमीटर प्रति घंटे की एक अधिकतम निरंतर हवा की गति के साथ चक्रवाती तूफान
240 किमी प्रति gusting .
———————-
नोट : अगले विशेष बुलेटिन पर 0100 यूटीसी पर उत्पन्न करेगा
नियमित दो दैनिक बुलेटिन के अलावा 2013/10/12 दिनांकित.
———————
ड्यूटी अधिकारी =

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053
FQIN01 DEMS 120053
मुलाकात के लिए नौवहन बुलेटिन . भूमध्य रेखा के क्षेत्र आठवीं उत्तर
2013/12/10 के 0100 यूटीसी से 12 घंटे के लिए मान्य है.
बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान , WESTCENTRAL कार्यभार PHAILIN
और बंगाल के निकटवर्ती EASTCENTRAL खाड़ी पश्चिम NORTHWESTWARDS चले गए
0230 बजे केंद्रित पिछले 6 घंटे और झूठ के दौरान 12 अक्टूबर की IST
बंगाल की WESTCENTRAL और आसपास EASTCENTRAL खाड़ी के ऊपर 2013
अक्षांश 16.9 डिग्री उत्तर और देशांतर के आधे ADEGREE भीतर
पारादीप के 87.0 डीईजी ई, 375 किलोमीटर दक्षिण , दक्षिण पूर्व , 345 किलोमीटर दक्षिण पूर्व
गोपालपुर , और 340 किलोमीटर KALINGAPATNAM के पूर्वी दक्षिण पूर्व की ( . )
आईटी NORTHWESTWARDS ले जाएँ और उत्तरी आंध्र प्रदेश क्रॉस और होगा
के करीब KALINGAPATNAM और पारादीप के बीच ओडिशा तटों ,
टुडे यानी की शाम तक गोपालपुर ( ओडिशा ) 12 अक्टूबर , 2013
एक अधिकतम निरंतर हवा की गति के साथ एक बहुत गंभीर चक्रवाती तूफान के रूप में
210-220 किमी प्रति घंटे ( . ) = के

अंत

GUjarati (Translated by Google)

ભારત / બંગાળની ખાડી : 10 નોટ પર NNW ખસેડવાની ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત ( VSCS/CAT3-SS ) 02B / Phailin 122100Z NR 20.0N 84.7E , ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ અને Odisha કોસ્ટ ( IMD ) માટે ( JTWC ) ચક્રવાત ચેતવણી – 121013 2100z

ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત ( અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન ) 02B (બે ) / Phailin – પાંચ Saffir – સિમ્પસન સ્કેલ પર કેટેગરી 3

ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ માટે ચક્રવાત ચેતવણી
અને Odisha કોસ્ટ . (IMD)

ચક્રવાત Phailin વિશે 21:15 ( 15:45 જીએમટી) પર ગોપાલપુરમાં , ઓરિસ્સા રાજ્ય, નજીક દરીયાકિનારે હિટ

બીબીસી ન્યૂઝ – ઓછામાં ઓછા 3M ( 10ft ) ની આગાહી તોફાનમાં વ્યાપક નુકસાન થવાની ધારણા

ડૉ જેફ સ્નાતકોત્તર, હવામાન અંડરગ્રાઉન્ડ – ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin 10 ફુટ સર્જ પેકિંગ કરી શકાઈ

(હિન્દી અને ગુજરાતી અનુવાદ માટે નીચે સ્ક્રોલ કરો ) ( हिंदी और गुजराती अनुवाद के लिए नीचे स्क्रॉल )
( હિન્દી અને ગુજરાતી અનુવાદ માટે નીચે સ્ક્રોલ કરો )

( છબી: wunderground.com ) 5 દિવસનું અનુમાન (સ્રોત માટે ઇમેજ ક્લિક કરો)

( છબી: wunderground.com ) સેટેલાઈટ (સ્રોત માટે ઇમેજ ક્લિક કરો)

( છબી: IMD) વિશાખાપટ્ટનમ ડોપ્લર રડાર ( સ્રોત માટે ઇમેજ ક્લિક કરો)

RSMC – ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાતો નવી દિલ્હી – ભારત

( છબી: IMD)

ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત એડવાઇઝરી
RSMC – ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાતો , નવી દિલ્હી
ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય તોફાન
‘ PHAILIN ‘
એડવાઇઝરી નં. વીસ six 12 1700 UTC એ બહાર પાડેલી
ટીએચ
ઓક્ટોબર 2013 12 1500 UTC ચાર્ટ પર આધારિત
ટીએચ
ઓક્ટોબર 2013 .
આ ખૂબ જ તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન ,
PHAILIN
કુલ સ્કોર WESTCENTRAL અને આસપાસના
બંગાળની NORTHWEST BAY ભૂતકાળનો 3 કલાક દરમિયાન ઉત્તર NORTHWESTWARDS ખસેડવામાં
15 KMPH ઝડપ અને આજે 1500 UTC , 12 ઓક્ટોબર એટી CENTRED મૂકે સાથે
અક્ષાંશ 19.1 પાસેની બંગાળની 2013 NORTHWEST બોલ આસપાસના WESTCENTRAL BAY
0
એન
અને રેખાંશ 85,0
0
ગોપાલપુરમાં નજીક ઇ . નવા અવલોકનો સૂચવે છે કે
જમીન પર આવતી PROCESS આગામી એક કલાક અંદર શરૂ કરી છે અને તે પૂર્ણ થશે.
જમીન પર આવતી સમયે , મહત્તમ લગાતાર પવનની ઝડપ 200-210 KMPH આવશે.
સેટેલાઇટ IMAGERIES અનુસાર , સિસ્ટમ ની તીવ્રતા 6.0 ટી છે. માટે તીવ્ર
એકદમ તીવ્ર સંવહન LAT 15.0 ઉત્તર જોવામાં આવે છે
0
LONG 88.0 ઓફ એન અને પશ્ચિમ
0

Odisha અને ઉત્તર તટીય આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ સાથે . સૌથી નીચો CLOUD ટોચ
તાપમાન ( CTT ) -78 વિશે છે
0
સી
DWR વિશાખાપટ્ટનમ સિસ્ટમ ટ્રેકીંગ અને અક્ષાંશ જેમ CENTRE અહેવાલ છે
19.1
0
એન
અને રેખાંશ
85,0
0
ઇ એટી
1500
યુ
ટી
સી
. ગોપાલપુરમાં ( 43049 ) વધુમાં 24 અહેવાલ આપ્યો
24.4 HPA કલાકની દબાણ વિકેટ ,
98 નોટ્સ મહત્તમ પવનની ઝડપ FROM
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ગોપાલપુરમાં ( Odisha ) પર જાણ કરવામાં આવી છે .
MAXIMUM લગાતાર SURFACE પવનની ઝડપ 105 વિશે નોટ્સ હોવાનો અંદાજ છે
સિસ્ટમ સેન્ટર આસપાસ 120 કિલોનોટીકલ GUSTING .
દરિયાની સ્થિતિ છે
સિસ્ટમ સેન્ટર આસપાસ અસાધારણ . અંદાજિત CENTRAL દબાણ છે
940 HPA વિશે.
સિસ્ટમ અંદાજિત ટ્રેક અને તીવ્રતા નીચેના ટેબલ માં આપવામાં આવે છે :
તારીખ / સમય (UTC )
POSITION
( LAT.
0
N / LONG .
0
ઇ)
લગાતાર MAXIMUM
SURFACE પવનની ઝડપ ( KMPH )
CATEGORY
12-10-2013/1500
19.1/85.0
200-210 GUSTING સુધી 230
અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
12-10-2013/1800
20.2/84.3
200 થી 170-180 GUSTING
અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
13-10-2013/0000
21.2/84.0
80-90 GUSTING 100
ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
13-10-2013/0600
22.0/83.5
50-60 GUSTING 70
ડીપ ડિપ્રેશન

ભારતીય કોસ્ટ માટે ચક્રવાત ચેતવણી

મુદ્દો સમયનો : 2130 કલાક IST . તારીખ: 12-10-2013
(Red સંદેશ )
બુલેટિન નંબર: બીઓબી 04/2013/34
સબ : ઉત્તરપશ્ચિમ આસપાસના westcentral ખાડી પર અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન ‘ PHAILIN ‘
બંગાળ કિનારે બંધ ગોપાલપુરમાં માટે ( Odisha ) પાર છે
આ ખૂબ જ તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન ,
PHAILIN
ના westcentral અને આસપાસના ઉત્તરપશ્ચિમ બે ઉપર
બંગાળ 15 kmph એક ઝડપ સાથે છેલ્લા 3 કલાક દરમિયાન ઉત્તર northwestwards ખસેડવામાં અને કેન્દ્રમાં મૂકે
આજે 2030 hrs IST , 12
મી
બંગાળ ઉત્તરપશ્ચિમે આસપાસના westcentral ખાડી પર ઓક્ટોબર 2013
અક્ષાંશ 19.1 નજીક
0
N અને રેખાંશ 85,0
0
ગોપાલપુરમાં નજીક ઇ . તાજેતરના અવલોકનો સૂચવે છે કે
જમીન પર આવતી પ્રક્રિયા આગામી એક કલાક અંદર શરૂ કરી છે અને તે પૂર્ણ થશે. જમીન પર આવતી વખતે ,
વધુમાં સતત પવનની ઝડપ 200-210 kmph હશે.
સિસ્ટમ અંદાજિત ટ્રેક અને તીવ્રતા નીચે કોષ્ટક આપવામાં આવે છે:
તારીખ / સમય ( IST )
સ્થિતિ
( Lat.
0
N / લોંગ.
0
ઇ)
સતત મહત્તમ સપાટી
પવનની ઝડપ ( kmph )
વર્ગ
12-10-2013/2030
19.1/85.0
200-210 gusting માટે 230
અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
12-10-2013/2330
20.2/84.3
200 થી 170-180 gusting
અત્યંત તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
13-10-2013/0530
21.2/84.0
80-90 gusting 100
ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
13-10-2013/1130
22.0/83.5
50-60 gusting 70
ડીપ ડિપ્રેશન
Odisha , આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ અને પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ માટે ચેતવણી
(i)
થોડા સ્થળોએ ભારે ધોધ માટે ભારે સાથે સૌથી સ્થળોએ વરસાદ અને અત્યંત એકલતા
ભારે ધોધ ( ≥ 25 સે.મી. ) દરમિયાન Odisha અને ઉત્તર તટીય આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે
આગામી 48 કલાક . ભારે વરસાદ માટે ભારે અલગ વેસ્ટ દરિયાકાંઠાના વિસ્તારોમાં પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે
આગામી 48 કલાક દરમિયાન બંગાળમાં ..
(ર)
ગેલ પવન:
આંધી
પવન સાથે 235 થી 210-220 kmph gusting પહોંચ્યા ઝડપ અને બંધ દરિયાકાંઠાના
ઉત્તર તટીય આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ અને દક્ષિણ Odisha જિલ્લાઓ સમયે જીતવું હોત
જમીન પર આવતી . સાથે અને Odisha અને ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ કિનારે બોલ સમુદ્ર રાજ્ય હશે
અસાધારણ . તે ઉપર દરમિયાન પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ કિનારા અને બંધ ખૂબ રફ માટે ખરબચડી હશે
સમયગાળો .
(iii)
તોફાનમાં માર્ગદર્શન :
3.0 થી 3.5 મીટર ઊંચાઇ સાથે તોફાનમાં . ખગોળીય ભરતી ઉપર
Odisha ના Ganjam , ખુર્દા , પુરી અને Jagatsinghpur જિલ્લાઓમાં નીચા બોલતી વિસ્તારોમાં રેલમછેલ કરવી અને કરશે
જમીન પર આવતી વખતે આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ Srikakulam ડિસ્ટ્રિક્ટ.
(iv)
Odisha અને આસપાસના ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ પર અપેક્ષા નુકસાન :
વ્યાપક
kutcha ઘરો નુકસાન. જૂના મકાનો માટે અમુક નુકસાન. મોટા પાયે વીજ વિક્ષેપ અને
સંચાર રેખાઓ. રેલ અને વ્યાપક પૂર કારણે રોડ ટ્રાફિક વિક્ષેપ. ના સંભવિત ખતરો
ભંગાર ઉડતી . ભાગી માર્ગો પૂર. કૃષિ પાકો વ્યાપક નુકસાન.
(v)
ઍક્શન સૂચવ્યું હતું કે:
માછીમારો ઉત્તર આંધ્ર સાથે સમુદ્ર માં સાહસ ન કરવાની સલાહ આપી છે
પ્રદેશ, Odisha અને પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ કિનારે . માછીમારી કામગીરી કુલ સસ્પેન્શન . મોટા પાયે
દરિયાઇ વિસ્તારોમાં વસતી સ્થળાંતર. સંવેદનશીલ રેલ અને રોડ ટ્રાફિક કુલ સસ્પેન્શન
વિસ્તારોમાં . અસરગ્રસ્ત વિસ્તારોમાં લોકોને અંદર રહેવા માટે
જમીન પર આવતી અંદાજ કરો:
પણ જમીન પર આવતી પછી સિસ્ટમ ખૂબ જ તીવ્ર ની તીવ્રતા જાળવી શક્યતા છે
ચક્રવાતી 6 કલાક માટે તોફાન અને ધીમે ધીમે અનુગામી 6 કલાક જ્યારે એક ચક્રવાતી તોફાન માં નબળા
આંતરિક Odisha સમગ્ર northwestwards ખસેડવાની . ભારે સાથે સૌથી વધુ સ્થળોએ તેની અસર હેઠળ વરસાદ
થોડા સ્થળોએ જાય છે અને અત્યંત ભારે અલગ સ્થળોએ જાય છે Odisha પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે . અંતે વરસાદ
ભારે ધોધ માટે અલગ ભારે સાથે ઘણા સ્થળોએ પણ ઉત્તર તટીય આંધ્ર પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે
પ્રદેશ, છત્તીસગઢ અને ઝારખંડ . 100-120 kmph પહોંચ્યા ગેલ પવનની ઝડપ પણ જીતવું હોત
6 કલાક અને આ જ સમયગાળા દરમિયાન Odisha પર વારાફરતી 6 કલાક માટે 60-70 માટે .
આગામી બુલેટિન 13 , આવતીકાલના IST 0130 hrs અંતે આપવામાં આવશે
મી ઓક્ટોબર, 2013

ટી સી એક સી બુલેટિન
નિરિક્ષણ અને હવામાનની ટ્રેક
ચક્રવાત પવન અનુમાન
તોફાનમાં આઈપીઓ મોડલ
ચક્રવાતના તાજેતરની સેટેલાઈટ કલ્પના
NWP માર્ગદર્શન

ચક્રવાત Phailin Odisha હેલ્પલાઇન સંખ્યા

Odisha રાજ્ય પ્રકાશિત કરવામાં આવી છે અસરગ્રસ્ત સાયક્લોન માટે હેલ્પલાઇન સંખ્યા. આ કંટ્રોલ રૂમ ની Numbers નીચે નોંધ અને શેરિંગ દ્વારા Lifes સેવ કરો. કોઈને દરમિયાન અને ચક્રવાત Phailin બરબાદી પછી જરૂર હશે માટે હવે નંબરો છાપો અથવા નીચે નોંધ કરો.

Odisha રાજ્ય હેલ્પલાઇન સંખ્યા

Odisha સેન્ટ્રલ કંટ્રોલ રૂમ 0674-2534177 છે

DISTRICT નિયંત્રણ રૂમ
==========================
Mayurbhanj 06792-252759
Jajpur 06728-222648
Gajapati 06815-222943
Dhenkanal 06762-221376
ખુર્દા 06755-220002
Keonjhar 06766-255437
કટક 0671-2507842
Ganjam 06811-263978
પુરી 06752-223237
Kendrapara 06727-232803
Jagatsinghpur 06724-220368
Balasore 06782-26267
Bhadrak 06784-251881

અત્યંત જોખમી ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin માટે ભારત કૌંસ

ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin 10 ફુટ સર્જ પેકિંગ કરી શકાઈ

ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin , આ Saffir – સિમ્પસન સ્કેલ પર કોઈ શ્રેણી 5, ઉત્તર ભારતીય કિનારે આસન્ન છે. આ વિશાળ તોફાન 155 માઇલ (250 કિમી ) ના પવનો રખાઈ છે.

દ્વારા પોસ્ટ કરવામાં આવ્યું : ડો જેફ સ્નાતકોત્તર, હવામાન અંડરગ્રાઉન્ડ

સુધારાશે : 5:46 PM પર પોસ્ટેડ GMT 12 ઓક્ટોબર, 2013 ના રોજ

” ખૂબ જ જોખમી ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin 16 યુટીસી ( મધ્યાહન પરોઢિયે ) શનિવાર, 12 ઓક્ટોબર, 2013 અંતે ગોપાલપુરમાં (વસ્તી 7,000 ) ની નગર નજીક ભારત ઉત્તરપૂર્વીય કિનારા પર જમીન પર આવતી કર્યા છે. Phailin જમીન સાથે ક્રિયાપ્રતિક્રિયા કારણે , જમીન પર આવતી વખતે નોંધપાત્ર નબળા કરવામાં આવી હતી, અને ચાર કલાક જમીન પર આવતી પહેલાં સંયુક્ત ટાયફૂન ચેતવણી કેન્દ્ર ( JTWC ) દ્વારા 140 માઇલ પવન સાથે કેટેગરી 4 તોફાન રેટ આવી હતી. આંખ તરીકે ગોપાલપુરમાં માં 938 MB બહાર તળીયે દબાણ પર પસાર કર્યો હતો, અને આ શહેર eyewall માં , 85 ગંભીર માટે gusting , 56 એમપીએચની રખાઈ પવન અહેવાલ . એક 938 MB દબાણ એક ઉપગ્રહ પવન અને દબાણ અંદાજ ના ” ડ્વોરેક ટેકનિક ” નો ઉપયોગ કરીને , 140 માઇલ પવન સાથે કેટેગરી 4 તોફાનની શોધવા માટે અપેક્ષા છે. તે અંતર્દેશીય નહીં તરીકે સેટેલાઈટ છબીઓ Phailin માતાનો તીવ્ર વાવાઝોડા હૂંફાળું અને ક્ષેત્રીય કવરેજમાં સંકોચાતુ છે, અને Visakhapanam બહાર રડાર દર્શાવે છે કે , ભારત પણ તોફાન માતાનો પડઘા એક નબળા પડવાની બતાવે છે. Phailin તરીકે માઇક્રોવેવ ઉપગ્રહ વગાડવા દ્વારા અંદાજ કલાક દીઠ એક ઇંચ , ઓવરને મૂશળધાર વરસાદ લાવવામાં આવે છે.

1 આકૃતિ . Phailin રડાર ઇમેજ જમીન પર આવતી વખતે . છબી ક્રેડિટ : IMD .

આકૃતિ 2. 12 ઓક્ટોબર, 2013 ના રોજ આશરે 07:30 UTC લેવામાં ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત Phailin ઓફ એમઓડીઆઇએસ ઉપગ્રહ છબી, . તે સમયે, Phailin 150 એમપીએચની પવન સાથે ટોચના ઓવરને કેટેગરી 4 તોફાન હતી. છબી ક્રેડિટ : નાસા.

Phailin માંથી નુકસાન
Phailin મહાન 1999 Odisha ચક્રવાત , કારણ ચૌદ વર્ષ ભારત અસર મજબૂત ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત છે. કે તોફાન 155 ઈશાંત મહત્તમ સતત પવન સાથે હિટ અને દરિયાકિનારાને 5.9 મીટર (19 ફુટ ) ની તોફાનમાં લાવ્યા. તે (. અંશે નબળા હોવા છતાં, કદાચ 20 પવન સાથે – 30 માઇલ નીચલા ) 1999 ચક્રવાત કરતાં ક્ષેત્રીય હદ મોટા છે કારણ Phailin , કિનારે એક સમાન કદના તોફાનમાં વાહન સમક્ષ રજુ કરવાનો પ્રયત્ન કરીશું Phailin માતાનો તોફાનમાં અને કેટેગરી 3 4 પવન નજીકના આપત્તિજનક જો eyewall દરિયાકિનારે આવે છે કિનારે એક 50 માઇલ વિશાળ swath નુકસાન , અને જમણી કારણ બનશે . હરિકેન કેટરીના Phailin કરતાં જમીન પર આવતી વખતે નબળા હતી, પરંતુ કેટરિના કેટરિના માતાનો તોફાનમાં વધુ વિનાશક Phailin માતાનો હશે કરતાં બનાવે છે, એક ખૂબ મોટા વિસ્તાર આવરી લેવામાં કે હરિકેન પવનને હતી. હું Phailin ના મુખ્ય ભય તેના પવન પાસેથી હશે એવું લાગે છે. હું ખાસ કરીને Brahmapur (વસ્તી 3,50,000 ), ભારતના સૌથી મોટા શહેર 58TH શહેરમાં Phailin માતાનો પવન નુકસાન સંભવિત ચિંતિત છું. Brahmapur દસ માઈલ્સ અંતર્દેશીય આવેલું છે, અને સંભવિત કેટલાક કલાકો માટે રખાઈ હરિકેન પવનને અનુભવ થશે. Phailin માતાનો પૂરને સંભવિત 6 વરસાદની માત્રા તરીકે , અન્ય વિશાળ ચિંતાનો વિષય છે – 12 ઇંચ જીવન માટે જોખમી ફ્લેશ પૂર બળ , અંતરિયાળ 100 માઇલ પર swath સાથે પડી જશે .

Phailin કેટલો મજબૂત છે?
પ્રશ્નો યુએસ સંયુક્ત ટાયફૂન ચેતવણી કેન્દ્ર ( JTWC ) કરતા નોંધપાત્ર રીતે ઓછી હતી જે ભારત હવામાન વિભાગ (IMD ) Phailin માતાનો શક્તિ મૂલ્યાંકનો વિશે ઊભા કરવામાં આવ્યા છે. બંને કેન્દ્રો ઉપગ્રહ અંદાજ કરતાં પવન સીધી માપ વાપરો, જેથી અમે સાચું છે જે કેન્દ્ર ખબર નથી. એટલે કે, ઉપગ્રહ છબી પર સમાન દેખાવ ( તફાવતો એ આ ચાર્ટ જુઓ પેસિફિક કરતાં એટલાન્ટિક માં નબળા હશે સાથે તોફાન – તે જ તકનીકો ઉપયોગ કરીને ઉપગ્રહ અંદાજ એટલાન્ટિક અને પેસિફિક મહાસાગરની માટે અલગ અલગ પરિણામો આપે છે કે જે સાચું છે. ) તે આ જ રીતે ભારતીય મહાસાગરમાં કેસ છે કે હોઈ શકે છે. IMD તેમના સેટેલાઈટ તાકાત અંદાજ પ્રયાસ કરો અને ગોઠવવા માટે કેટલાક બોયું માહિતી જોવામાં આવ્યું છે , પરંતુ હાઇ ઓવરને ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાતો હું અમે ખરેખર ભારતીય મહાસાગર ચક્રવાતો એક હરિકેન તરીકે જ પવન છે કે કેમ તે ખબર શંકા છે કે ભારતીય મહાસાગરમાં પૂરતી અસામાન્ય છે એ જ ઉપગ્રહ સહી સાથે એટલાન્ટિક . વિચારણા અન્ય વસ્તુ IMD તેમના સલાહો માટે 10 મિનિટ સરેરાશ પવન વાપરે છે, અને JTWC 1 મિનિટ ઉપયોગ કરે છે, IMD સલાહો માં પવન લાંબા સરેરાશ સમયગાળો કારણે , ઓછામાં ઓછા 6% દ્વારા ઓછી હશે જેથી . ભારત તેના પોતાના હરિકેન શિકારી વિમાન હોય તો આ મુદ્દો અપ સાફ કરી શકાય; યુએસ એર ફોર્સ જેવા સી 130 એરક્રાફ્ટ ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાતો માં ફ્લાય અને વાસ્તવિક પવન માપ લેવા માટે વાપરે મેળવવામાં ભારત વિશે કેટલીક ઉચ્ચ સ્તર ચર્ચાઓ થઈ છે.

આકૃતિ 3. 12 ઓક્ટોબર, 2013 ના રોજ આશરે 02:30 UTC લેવામાં ટાયફૂન નારી ની એમઓડીઆઇએસ ઉપગ્રહ છબી, . તે સમયે, નારી 90 એમપીએચની પવન સાથે કેટેગરી -1 તોફાન હતી. છબી ક્રેડિટ : નાસા.

” – ડૉ જેફ સ્નાતકોત્તર – અંડરગ્રાઉન્ડ હવામાન

સંયુક્ત ટાયફૂન ચેતવણી કેન્દ્ર ( JTWC )

ગૂગલ અર્થ ગ્રાફિક ઓવરલે

WTIO31 PGTW 122100

MSGID / GENADMIN / સંયુક્ત ટાયફૂન WRNCEN પર્લ હાર્બર HI / /
વિષય / ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત 02B ( PHAILIN ) ચેતવણી NR 016 / /
RMKS /
1. ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત 02B ( PHAILIN ) ચેતવણી NR 016
NORTHIO માં 01 સક્રિય ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત
મેક્સ એક મિનિટ સરેરાશ પર આધારિત છે WINDS રખાઈ
ખુલ્લા જળ પર માન્ય પવન RADII ફક્ત

ચેતવણી સ્થિતિ:
121800Z — પાસેની 19.6N 84.9E
ચળવળ છેલ્લા છ કલાક – 10 KTS એટી 335 ડિગ્રી
030 એનએમ અંદર ચોક્કસ POSITION
POSITION સેટેલાઈટ દ્વારા સ્થિત કેન્દ્ર પર આધારિત
હાજર પવન DISTRIBUTION :
MAX લગાતાર WINDS – 100 KT , GUSTS 125 KT
ખુલ્લા જળ પર માન્ય પવન RADII ફક્ત
જમીન ઉપર નોંધપાત્ર ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત જેવી DISSIPATING
19.6N 84.9E : POSIT REPEAT

આગાહી :
એટી માન્ય 12 કલાક ,
130600Z — 21.2N 84.0E
065 KT , GUSTS 080 KT – MAX WINDS રખાઈ
ખુલ્લા જળ પર માન્ય પવન RADII ફક્ત
જમીન ઉપર નોંધપાત્ર ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત જેવી DISSIPATING
24 એચઆર POSIT માટે વેક્ટર : 335 DEG / 08 KTS

એટી માન્ય 24 કલાક ,
131800Z — 22.7N 83.3E
MAX લગાતાર WINDS – 030 KT , GUSTS 040 KT
ખુલ્લા જળ પર માન્ય પવન RADII ફક્ત
જમીન ઉપર નોંધપાત્ર ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત જેવી દુરાચારી

ટીકા :
20.0N 84.7E પાસેની 122100Z સ્થાન.
ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત 02B ( PHAILIN ), લગભગ 266 એનએમ સ્થિત
કોલકાતા, ભારત , દક્ષિણપશ્ચિમે ઉત્તર NORTHWESTWARD ટ્રેક આવી
છેલ્લા છ કલાક 10 નોટ્સ મુ. એનિમેટેડ ઉન્નત ઇન્ફ્રારેડ
ઉપગ્રહ કલ્પના ટીસી 02B જમીન પર આવતી બનાવ્યો છે તેવી રજૂઆત કરે છે
આશરે 135 એનએમ VISAKHPATNAM , ભારત NORTHEAST , અને
ઝડપથી જમીન તેના કારણે ગરમી પ્રસારતી સંરચના ગુમાવી શરૂ
અસરો. ટીસી 02B ભારત માં NORTHWEST ઉપરાંત ટ્રૅક કરવા આગાહી છે
અને જમીનની જો ઘર્ષણ ઇફેક્ટ્સ બગડવાની ચાલુ રાખો
વધુ તેના સ્વચ્છંદતા માટે અગ્રણી , સિસ્ટમ ઇરોડ
આગામી 24 કલાકમાં નોંધપાત્ર ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય ચક્રવાત . આ છે
સંયુક્ત ટાયફૂન WRNCEN PEARL દ્વારા આ સિસ્ટમ પર આખરી ચેતવણી
HARBOR HI . સિસ્ટમ નજીકથી ચિહ્નો માટે મોનીટર કરવામાં આવશે
નવજીવન . / /
NNNN

TSR લૉગઑન ભારતીય મહાસાગર : 12 ઑક્ટો અંતે જારી સ્ટોર્મ ચેતવણી , 2013 12:00 GMT

હાલમાં 18.7 એન 85.3 ઇ નજીક સ્થિત સુપર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન PHAILIN ( 02B ) આપેલ લીડ સમય (ઓ) પર નીચેનો શક્યતા (ઓ) જમીન હડતાલ આગાહી છે :

લાલ ચેતવણી દેશ (ઓ) અથવા પ્રાંત (ઓ)
ભારત
કેટ 1 માટે સંભાવના અથવા ઉપર 12 કલાકની અંદર 95 % છે
ટી.એસ. માટે સંભાવના હાલમાં 100 % છે
લાલ ચેતવણી સિટી ( ઓ) અને ટાઉન ( ઓ)
Brahmapur (19.3 એન, 84,9 ઇ)
ઉપર સીએટી 1 અથવા સંભાવના 12 કલાકની અંદર 90 % છે
ટી.એસ. માટે સંભાવના હાલમાં 100 % છે

પીળા ચેતવણી સિટી ( ઓ) અને ટાઉન ( ઓ)
પુરી ( 19.8 એન, 85,9 ઇ)
ટી.એસ. માટે સંભાવના હાલમાં 100 % છે
Naupada ( 18.6 એન, 84.2 ઇ)
કેટ 1 માટે સંભાવના અથવા ઉપર 12 કલાકની અંદર 20% છે
ટી.એસ. માટે સંભાવના હાલમાં 100 % છે
કટક (20.5 એન, 85,9 ઇ)
ટી.એસ. માટે સંભાવના હાલમાં 85 % છે
વિશાખાપટ્ટનમ્ ( 17.8 એન, 83.3 ઇ)
ટી.એસ. માટે સંભાવના હાલમાં 55 % છે

નોંધ કરો કે
લાલ ચેતવણી ( ગંભીર) સીએટી 1 અથવા 31 % વચ્ચે અને 100% સંભાવના ઉપર છે.
પીળા ચેતવણી ( એલિવેટેડ ) સીએટી 1 અથવા ઉપર 10% અને 30% સંભાવના , અથવા ટી.એસ. વચ્ચે ઉપર 50% સંભાવના છે.
કેટ 1 ઓછામાં ઓછા 74 માઇલ ગંભીર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન તાકાત પવન અર્થ થાય છે , 119 કિ.મી. / કલાક અથવા 64 નોટ 1 મિનિટ ટકી ​​.
ટી.એસ. ઓછામાં ઓછા 39 માઇલ ઓફ ટ્રોપિકલ સ્ટ્રોમ તાકાત પવન અર્થ થાય છે , 63 કિ.મી. / કલાક અથવા 34 નોટ 1 મિનિટ ટકી ​​.

ગ્રાફિકલ અનુમાન માહિતી અને વધુ વિગતો માટે કૃપા કરીને મુલાકાત લો http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

સ્ટોર્મ ટ્રેકર નકશો

TSR સ્ટોર્મ ટ્રેકર નકશો ભૂતકાળ અને અનુમાન ટ્રેક: ઉષ્ણકટિબંધીય તોફાન TWO : 48 કલાક સ્ટોર્મ કેન્દ્રિત ઝૂમ જીવી

અન્ય અહેવાલો

ચક્રવાત Phailin ભારતમાં જમીન બનાવે છે

બીબીસી 12 ઓક્ટોબર 2013 છેલ્લું 20:14 BST ( 1914Z GMT / યુટીસી ) ખાતે સુધારાશે

બીબીસી Sanjoy મજુમદાર : ” જો પવન ની તીવ્રતા મજબૂત બની છે ”

મુખ્ય વાર્તા વાંચન ચાલુ રાખો
સંબંધિત વાર્તાઓ

ચક્રવાત Phailin : ચિત્રો
એનિમેટેડ માર્ગદર્શિકા : હરિકેન્સ
બીબીસી હવામાન ચક્રવાત સુધારા વોચ

ઘણા 500,000 લોકો તેમના ઘરો ભાગી જવાની ફરજ પડી છે કે જે વિશાળ ચક્રવાત પૂર્વીય ભારતમાં જમીન કરી છે.

ચક્રવાત Phailin વિશે 21:15 ( 15:45 જીએમટી) પર ગોપાલપુરમાં , ઓરિસ્સા રાજ્ય, નજીક દરીયાકિનારે હિટ તરીકે વીન્ડ 200 કિ.મી. / કલાક ( 125mph ) પર માપવામાં આવી હતી.

સત્તાવાળાઓ વ્યાપક નુકસાન થવાની ધારણા હતી કે ઓછામાં ઓછા 3M ( 10ft ) ની તોફાનમાં આગાહી કરી હતી.

અધિકારીઓ તેઓ વધુ સારી રીતે ચક્રવાત ઓરિસ્સા માં હજારો લોકો માર્યા ગયા છે જ્યારે 1999 માં કરતાં તૈયાર કરવામાં આવે છે કહે છે.

ચક્રવાત Phailin “ખૂબ જ ગંભીર ” તરીકે વર્ગીકૃત છે, અને ભારતના હવામાન કચેરી વડા LS રાઠોડ , તે તાકાત ગુમાવી પહેલાં છ કલાક માટે કે વર્ગમાં રહેશે જણાવ્યું હતું કે દેવામાં આવી છે.

મુખ્ય વાર્તા વાંચન ચાલુ રાખો
આ દ્રશ્ય પર
એન્ડ્રુ ઉત્તર બીબીસી ન્યૂઝ, ઓરિસ્સા

અમે Brahmapur પહોંચ્યા તરીકે , માત્ર અંતર્દેશીય ચક્રવાત પ્રથમ કિનારે હિટ હતી જ્યાંથી , અમે સાક્ષાત્કાર બરબાદી એક દ્રશ્ય સાથે મળ્યા હતા.

આ નગર કુલ અંધકાર હતો, અમારા વાહન પ્રકાશિત ના હેડલાઇટ વૃક્ષો અને રસ્તાઓ અવરોધિત પાવર લાઈન felled .

દુકાન ચિહ્નો અને અન્ય કચરો શક્તિશાળી તોફાન gusts દ્વારા હવામાં ઊંચા નહીં કરવામાં આવી હતી . લોકો આ સપ્તાહના ઉજવણી કારણે હતા કે મુખ્ય હિન્દૂ તહેવાર માટે વિસ્તૃત સજાવટ મુખ્ય રોડ તરફ strewn હતી.

સૌથી વધુ દુકાનો હવે ખાલી નિવાસીઓ સેંકડો સાથે શટર્ડ છે. શેરીઓ ઘણી પહેલેથી પૂર છે , અને વધુ ભારે વરસાદ અપેક્ષા છે આ માત્ર શરૂઆત હોઈ શકે છે.

કેટલાક gusts તેના મુખ્ય વિન્ડો માં ઉડાવી પછી અમારી હોટેલ લોબી હવે , કાચ સાથે આવરી લેવામાં આવે છે. ચક્રવાત આ નગર અને ભારતીય દરિયાકિનારો એક વિશાળ swathe મારફતે બનાવ્યા છે, કારણ કે એક ભયાનક રાત્રે સેટ જુએ છે.

તોફાનના ની આંખ 10-15 કિ.મી. / કલાક ( 6 9mph ) ખાતે ખસેડવાની કરવામાં આવી હતી, તેમણે જણાવ્યું હતું કે, .

બીબીસી Sanjoy મજુમદાર ભારે વરસાદ અહેવાલ અને ચક્રવાત તરીકે ગોપાલપુરમાં lashing ઉચ્ચ પવન જમીન કરી હતી.

‘ એપોકેલીપ્ટોક બરબાદી ‘

આ તોફાન વૃક્ષો અને રોડ સાઈન અપ ripped , અને કેટલાક વિસ્તારોમાં વીજ પુરવઠો કાપી છે. વિન્ડો ફલકો વિખેરાઇ આવી છે અને છત બંધ ફૂંકાવાથી રહી અહેવાલો હતા.

પાંચ મૃત્યુ ભારતીય માધ્યમો દ્વારા ચક્રવાત સાથે લિંક કરવામાં આવી હતી , ચાર ઘર પતન માટે ઘટી વૃક્ષો અને એક આભારી .

અન્ય બીબીસી સંવાદદાતા , એન્ડ્રુ ઉત્તર , માત્ર અંતર્દેશીય ચક્રવાત કિનારે પહોંચી જ્યાંથી Brahmapur માં સાક્ષાત્કાર બરબાદી એક દ્રશ્ય અંગે વાત કરી હતી .

દુકાન ચિહ્નો અને અન્ય કચરો તોફાન gusts અને મુખ્ય હિન્દૂ તહેવાર માટે વિસ્તૃત સજાવટ દ્વારા હવામાં ઊંચા નહીં કરવામાં આવી હતી મુખ્ય માર્ગ પર strewn હતી.

અધિકારીઓએ અગાઉ કોઈ એક ઓરિસ્સા અને આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ રાજ્યોમાં દરિયાકિનારે કાદવ અને thatched ઘરો માં રહેવા માટે મંજૂરી આવશે જણાવ્યું હતું કે , પરંતુ કેટલાક નિવાસીઓ તેઓ મૂકી રહેવા માગે જણાવ્યું હતું કે, .

” ઘણા લોકો, ખસેડવા ખાતરી થઇ હતી ઇનકાર કર્યો હતો , અને તે સમયે પોલીસ બળપૂર્વક સલામત સ્થળોએ તેમને ખસેડવા હતી ,” ગૃહ પ્રધાન Sushilkumar શિંદે જણાવ્યું હતું કે, .

સૈન્ય કટોકટી અને રાહત કામગીરી માટે સ્ટેન્ડબાય પર મૂકવામાં આવ્યો છે . હેલિકોપ્ટર અને ખોરાક પેકેજો તોફાનની અસરગ્રસ્ત વિસ્તારોમાં ઘટીને કરવા તૈયાર હતા.

ચક્રવાત Phailin માંથી આશ્રય શોધે ભારતીય ગ્રામવાસીઓ , 12 ઓક્ટોબર 2013 ચક્રવાત Phailin 14 વર્ષ માટે આ પ્રદેશમાં સૌથી તોફાન તરીકે વર્ણવવામાં આવે છે

500,000 લોકો ઘણા પ્રમાણે ભુવનેશ્વર , 12 ઓક્ટોબર 2013 નજીક ચક્રવાત Phailin માંથી આશ્રયના લોકો તોફાન આશ્રયસ્થાનોમાં માટે ઘણા તેમના ઘરો છોડી છે

વિશાખાપટ્ટનમ જિલ્લાઓ , આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ, ભારત , 12 ઓક્ટોબર 2013 આ તોફાન માં માછીમારી બંદર ખાતે તોફાન નુકસાન ભંગાર દરિયાઇ વિસ્તારોમાં વ્યાપક નુકસાન થવાની અપેક્ષા

એક સુપર ચક્રવાત ઓરિસ્સા હિટ જ્યારે ભારતીય ગ્રામવાસીઓ ઓક્ટોબર 2013 સત્તાવાળાઓ તેઓ હવે વધુ સારી રીતે 1999 માં તૈયાર કરતાં હોય છે કહે છે Ganjam જિલ્લાઓ , ભુવનેશ્વર પૂર્વમાં 12 માં આશ્રય ખાતે ખોરાક આપવામાં આવે છે

ચક્રવાત જમીન પર આવતી બનાવવામાં કલાક પહેલાં તેને બંગાળની ખાડી પર 240 કિ.મી. / કલાક ( 150mph ) ના પવનો પેદા કરવામાં આવી હતી. ખાલી તે મોટા ભાગના ઓરિસ્સા રાજ્યમાં હતા.

Sushant Sahoo , માતાનો ઓરિસ્સા રાજ્ય મૂડી, ભુવનેશ્વર એક નિવાસી , તે સવારે થી ત્યાં raining કરવામાં આવી હતી, અને શેરીઓમાં ખાલી હતા બીબીસીને કહ્યું હતું કે .

“અમે કોઈ વીજળી હોય છે, તે હમણાં અને ખૂબ જ આઘાતજનક ખૂબ જ કાળી છે,” તેમણે જણાવ્યું હતું કે, .

“હું સૂકી ખાદ્ય અને મીણબત્તીઓ ધરાવે છે. સ્થાનિક સરકાર દરેકને તૈયાર કરી રહ્યાં છે અને લોકો કાળજી લઈ સારા રહ્યા છે .”

ભારતના પૂર્વીય તટ અને બાંગ્લાદેશ નિયમિતપણે કે એપ્રિલ અને નવેમ્બર વચ્ચે ચક્રવાતી તોફાન દ્વારા હિટ છે કારણ મૃત્યુ અને મિલકત માટે વ્યાપક નુકસાન.

ડિસેમ્બર 2011 માં, ચક્રવાત થાણે લોકો ડઝનેક હત્યા , તમિલનાડુના દક્ષિણી રાજ્ય હિટ.

ભારત નકશો

દરિયાકાંઠાનું

હિંદ મહાસાગર અનુમાન સિસ્ટમ ( INDOFOS )

ઉચ્ચ પવન મોજું ચેતવણી

ઇશ્યૂ તારીખ: 12-10-2013 પ્રદેશ: ઓરિસ્સા

અવલોકનો સાથે તરંગ અનુમાન ઓફ Comparisions : ગોપાલપુરમાં
1600 hrs (સમયગાળો 1730 hrs , 12-10-2013 થી 1730 કલાક , 14-10-2013 માટે માન્ય ): મુદ્દો સમયનો

તે Odisha કિનારે બોલ તરંગ શરતો ખૂબ રફ હોઈ (> 4.0m ) અને 12 મી ઓક્ટોબર 2013 ની સાંજે કલાકો દ્વારા ધીમે ધીમે ખૂબ ઊંચા બનશે કે અનુમાનિત અંદાજ કે આગાહી છે. આ તરંગ ઊંચાઇ 12 ઓક્ટોબર, 2013 2330 hrs દરમિયાન ગોપાલપુરમાં ( Ganjam જિલ્લો) અને Saharabedi ( Jagatsingpur જિલ્લો) વચ્ચે વધુમાં વધુ ( લગભગ 8.5 મીટર ) હશે અનુમાનિત અંદાજ કે આગાહી છે. આ ઓળખી તરંગ HEIGHTS 5.0m માટે 3.0 ની રેન્જમાં અલગ અલગ હોય છે . વર્તમાન ઝડપ 100-150 સે.મી. / સેકન્ડ વચ્ચે બદલાય છે.

થોડા સ્થળોએ ભારે ધોધ માટે ભારે અને અલગ અત્યંત ભારે ધોધ (? 25 સે.મી. ) સાથે સૌથી વધુ સ્થળોએ વરસાદ આગામી 48 કલાક દરમિયાન Odisha પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે .

Odisha ના દરિયાકાંઠાના જિલ્લાઓમાં સાથે અને બંધ 235 થી 210-220 kmph gusting પહોંચ્યા ગેલ પવન ઝડપ જમીન પર આવતી વખતે જીતવું કરશે.

3.0 થી 3.5 મીટર ઊંચાઇ સાથે તોફાનમાં . ખગોળીય ભરતી ઉપર જમીન પર આવતી વખતે Ganjam , ખુર્દા , પુરી અને Odisha ના Jagatsinghpur જિલ્લાઓમાં નીચા બોલતી વિસ્તારોમાં રેલમછેલ કરવી કરશે.

Odisha કિનારા સમુદ્ર પર માછીમારો બહાર કિનારા પર પાછા આવવા માટે સૂચના આપવામાં આવે છે.

માછીમારો આગામી 48 કલાક દરમિયાન સમુદ્ર માં સાહસ ન કરવાની સલાહ આપી છે
છબીઓ છબીઓ
નોંધપાત્ર વેવ ઊંચાઈ પવનની ઝડપ
છબીઓ
ઓળખી

ટાઇડ અનુમાનો

ગોપાલપુરમાં

ઉચ્ચ પવન મોજું ચેતવણી

ઇશ્યૂ તારીખ: 12-10-2013 પ્રદેશ: આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ

અવલોકનો સાથે તરંગ અનુમાન ઓફ Comparisions : Vizag
1600 hrs (સમયગાળો 1730 hrs , 12-10-2013 થી 1730 કલાક , 14-10-2013 માટે માન્ય ): મુદ્દો સમયનો

તે ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ બંધ સમુદ્ર માં તરંગ શરતો ખૂબ રફ હશે કે અનુમાનિત અંદાજ કે આગાહી છે (> 4.0 મીટર) અને 12 ઓક્ટોબર 2013 ના રોજ સાંજે કલાકો દરમ્યાન ઘણી ઊંચી બનશે. આ તરંગ ઊંચાઇ 12 ઓક્ટોબર 1730 hrs દરમિયાન મહત્તમ લગભગ 7.0 Baruva વચ્ચે મીટર ( Srikakulam જિલ્લો) અને Ichchapuram ( Srikakulam જિલ્લો) , 2013 હોઈ અનુમાનિત અંદાજ કે આગાહી છે. આ ઓળખી તરંગ HEIGHTS 5.0m માટે 3.0 ની રેન્જમાં અલગ અલગ હોય છે . વર્તમાન ઝડપ 100-150 સે.મી. / સેકન્ડ વચ્ચે બદલાય છે.

થોડા સ્થળોએ ભારે ધોધ માટે ભારે અને અલગ અત્યંત ભારે ધોધ (? 25 સે.મી. ) સાથે સૌથી વધુ સ્થળોએ વરસાદ આગામી 48 કલાક દરમિયાન ઉત્તર તટીય આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે .

ઉત્તર તટીય આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ તટીય જિલ્લાઓ સાથે અને બંધ 235 થી 210-220 kmph gusting પહોંચ્યા ગેલ પવન ઝડપ જમીન પર આવતી વખતે જીતવું કરશે.

3.0 થી 3.5 મીટર ઊંચાઇ સાથે તોફાનમાં . ખગોળીય ભરતી ઉપર જમીન પર આવતી વખતે આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ Srikakulam જિલ્લાના નીચા બોલતી વિસ્તારોમાં રેલમછેલ કરવી કરશે.

ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ કિનારા સમુદ્ર પર માછીમારો બહાર કિનારા પર પાછા આવવા માટે સૂચના આપવામાં આવે છે. માછીમારો આગામી 48 કલાક દરમિયાન સમુદ્ર માં સાહસ ન કરવાની સલાહ આપી છે.
છબીઓ છબીઓ
નોંધપાત્ર વેવ ઊંચાઈ પવનની ઝડપ
છબીઓ
ઓળખી

ટાઇડ અનુમાનો

Baruva

ઉચ્ચ પવન મોજું ચેતવણી

ઇશ્યૂ તારીખ: 12-10-2013 પ્રદેશ: પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ
1600 hrs (સમયગાળો 1730 hrs , 12-10-2013 થી 1730 કલાક , 14-10-2013 માટે માન્ય ): મુદ્દો સમયનો

ઉપરોક્ત સમયગાળા દરમિયાન પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ દરિયાકિનારા (> 4.0 મીટર) ખૂબ રફ માટે તે – તરંગ શરતો ( 4.0m 2.5 મીટર) ખરબચડી હશે કે અનુમાનિત અંદાજ કે આગાહી છે. આ તરંગ ઊંચાઇ 12 ઓક્ટોબર, 2013 ની સાંજે કલાકો દરમ્યાન Digha (પૂર્વ મિદનાપુર જિલ્લો) અને Fraserganj (દક્ષિણ 24 પરગણાં જિલ્લો) વચ્ચે ( લગભગ 5.0 મીટર) વધુમાં વધુ હોઈ અનુમાનિત અંદાજ કે આગાહી છે. આ ઓળખી તરંગ HEIGHTS 4.0m માટે 3.0 ની રેન્જમાં અલગ અલગ હોય છે . વર્તમાન ઝડપે 100 અને 130 સે.મી. / સેકન્ડ વચ્ચે બદલાય છે.

ભારે વરસાદ માટે ભારે અલગ 12 ઓક્ટોબરના બપોરે થી શરૂ પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ દરિયાકાંઠાના વિસ્તારોમાં પર ઉત્પન્ન થઇ શકે છે .

પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ કિનારા સમુદ્ર પર માછીમારો બહાર કિનારા પર પાછા આવવા માટે સૂચના આપવામાં આવે છે. માછીમારો આગામી 48 કલાક દરમિયાન સમુદ્ર માં સાહસ ન કરવાની સલાહ આપી છે.
છબીઓ છબીઓ
નોંધપાત્ર વેવ ઊંચાઈ પવનની ઝડપ
છબીઓ
ઓળખી

ટાઇડ અનુમાનો

સાગર – રસ્તા

છબીઓ
AVHRR છબી

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1231

WTIN01 DEMS 121231
MET માટે શીપીંગ બુલેટિન . વિષુવવૃત્ત વિસ્તાર આઠમા NORTH
12-10-2013 1200 યુટીસી 12 કલાક માટે માન્ય .
આ ખૂબ જ તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન , WESTCENTRAL અને બોલ PHAILIN
બંગાળની આસપાસના NORTHWEST BAY NORTHWESTWARDS ખસેડવામાં અને
આજે 1430 hrs IST એટી CENTRED આવેલું છે , 12 ઓક્ટોબર 2013
NORTHWEST અને બંગાળના આસપાસના WEST CENTRAL બે ઉપર
LAT અડધા ડિગ્રી અંદર . 18.5 DEG N અને રેખાંશ 85.5 DEG ઇ,
90 કિમી ગોપાલપુરમાં દક્ષિણપૂર્વ , 120 KM પૂર્વ NORTHEAST
KALINGAPATNAM અને પરાદીપ 220 KM SOUTHWEST . તેને ખસેડવા કરશે
NORTHWESTWARDS અને ક્રોસ NORTH આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ અને Odisha દરિયાકિનારા
KALINGAPATNAM અને પરાદીપ વચ્ચે ગોપાલપુરમાં ( Odisha ) નજીક
આજે એટલે કે સાંજે દ્વારા ખૂબ જ ગંભીર 12 મી ઓક્ટોબર, 2013
210-220 KMPH મહત્તમ સતત પવન ઝડપ સાથે ચક્રવાતી તોફાન
240 KMPH માટે GUSTING .
———————-
નોંધ: જુઓ ખાસ બુલેટિન પર 0100 UTC એ આરંભ થશે
નિયમિત TWO DAILY બુલેટિન ઉપરાંત 12.10.2013 ડેટેડ .
———————
ફરજ અધિકારી =

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0053
FQIN01 DEMS 120053
MET માટે શીપીંગ બુલેટિન . વિષુવવૃત્ત વિસ્તાર આઠમા NORTH
12-10-2013 0100 યુટીસી 12 કલાક માટે માન્ય .
આ ખૂબ જ તીવ્ર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન , WESTCENTRAL બોલ PHAILIN
અને બંગાળના આસપાસના EASTCENTRAL BAY પશ્ચિમ NORTHWESTWARDS ખસેડવામાં
0230 hrs એટી CENTRED ભૂતકાળનો 6 કલાક અને આવેલું દરમિયાન 12TH ઓક્ટોબર IST
બંગાળની WESTCENTRAL અને આસપાસના EASTCENTRAL બે ઉપર 2013
અક્ષાંશ 16.9 DEG N અને રેખાંશ અડધા ADEGREE અંદર
પરાદીપ ઓફ 87,0 DEG ઇ, 375 કિમી દક્ષિણ SOUTHEAST , 345 KM SOUTHEAST
ગોપાલપુરમાં , અને 340 KM KALINGAPATNAM પૂર્વ – દક્ષિણપૂર્વ (.)
આઇટી NORTHWESTWARDS ખસેડો અને ઉત્તર આંધ્ર પ્રદેશ ક્રોસ અને વૂડ
બંધ KALINGAPATNAM અને પરાદીપ વચ્ચેનો Odisha દરિયાકિનારા ,
આજે એટલે કે સાંજે દ્વારા ગોપાલપુરમાં ( Odisha ) 12 મી ઓક્ટોબર, 2013
વધુમાં વધુ ટકી પવનની ઝડપ સાથે ખૂબ ગંભીર ચક્રવાતી તોફાન જેવી
210-220 KMPH (. ) = ઓફ

END

Bangladesh: Tropical Low/ Invest #94B has moved into S.Bengal – 300513 1345z

(Image: wunderground.com) North Indian Ocean IR Sat (Click image for source)

Indian Monsoon and Invest 94B near Bangladesh

Published on May 29, 2013 by (Extract)

(Image: westernpacificweather.com)

Another area we are still watching is a active low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal near Bangladesh. Moisture inflow from this area will continue to bring heavy rain through Thursday but thankfully it will weaken off by the weekend.  Along with the low there is a continued and serious risk of flooding in coastal areas.  On the other hand it is setting the stage for the southwest monsoon to start in India so will be cooling temperatures off for you.

. westernpacificweather.com

=================================

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“94B” – has moved into S.Bengal

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Latest analysis show that the LOW pressure “94 B” has moved into S.Bengal during the past 12 hrs.


12:30pm, Satellite IR shows, heavy rain over S.Bengal, Jharkand and N,central Odisha.
Due to the pull effect of “94B”and Monsoon current, Heavy rain seen all along Karnataka coast and over N,central Kerala.

Bangladesh

Recorded weather bulletins and flood forecasts available 24 hours a day from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department by dialing a dedicated number 10941 on mobile phones.

Bengali:

ভারতীয় আষাঢ়ের ও বাংলাদেশ কাছাকাছি 94B বিনিয়োগ
Robspeta (এক্সট্র্যাক্ট) দ্বারা মে 29, 2013 প্রকাশিত

(চিত্র: westernpacificweather.com)

আমরা এখনও দেখছেন অন্য এলাকায় বাংলাদেশ কাছাকাছি বঙ্গোপসাগরে একটি সক্রিয় কম চাপ এলাকা. এই এলাকা থেকে আর্দ্রতা অন্তঃপ্রবাহ বৃহস্পতিবার মাধ্যমে ভারী বৃষ্টি আনতে চলতে থাকবে কিন্তু সৌভাগ্যক্রমে এটি উইকএন্ডের দ্বারা বন্ধ দুর্বল করা হবে. কম সহ উপকূলবর্তী অঞ্চলে বন্যা একটি ক্রমাগত এবং গুরুতর ঝুঁকি আছে. অন্য দিকে এটি একটি তাই আপনার জন্য তাপমাত্রা অফ শীতল হবে ভারতে শুরু নৈর্ঋত বর্ষা জন্য পর্যায়ের সেটিং করা হয়.

. “- Westernpacificweather.com

=================================

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94B” – S.Bengal মধ্যে সরানো হয়েছে

বৃহস্পতিবার, মে 30, 2013
কম চাপ 94 বিগত 12 ঘন্টা সময় S.Bengal মধ্যে সরানো হয়েছে যে সর্বশেষ বিশ্লেষণ শো.

12:30 PM তে পোস্ট করা Satellite-র মধ্যে এ IR শো, S.Bengal, Jharkand এবং N, Central Odisha ওভার ভারী বৃষ্টি.
94B” এবং আষাঢ়ের সমস্ত কর্নাটক উপকূল বরাবর এবং N, Central কেরল ওভার দেখা যাচ্ছে, ভারি বৃষ্টির পুল প্রভাব দরুন.

বাংলাদেশ

রেকর্ড আবহাওয়া বুলেটিন এবং উপলব্ধ বন্যা পূর্বাভাস 24 ঘন্টা ডেডিকেটেড নম্বর ডায়াল করে বাংলাদেশ আবহাওয়া বিভাগ থেকে একটি দিন 10941 – মোবাইল ফোনে.

বাংলা:

Tropical Cyclone #01B #ONE #MAHASEN 160900Z near 23.7N 91.7E, moving NNE at 22 knots (JTWC). Landfall Bangladesh about 160200Z – 160513 1445z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

R S M C Bulletin

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO.43
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM MAHASENADVISORY ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 16
th
MAY 2013 BASED
ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 16
TH
MAY 2013.
THE CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS DURING PAST 6 HOURS AT A SPEED OF ABOUT 50 KMPH AND CROSSED
BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN CHITTAGONG AND FENI, NEAR LATITUDE 22.8ºN AND
LONGITUDE 91.4ºE (ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF FENI), AROUND 1330 HOURS IST OF TODAY,
THE 16
TH
MAY 2013.

IT LAY CENTRED AT 1430 HOURS IST OF 16
TH
MAY 2013 OVER
BANGLADESH NEAR LATITUDE 23.5
0
N AND LONGITUDE 92.0
0
E, ABOUT 75 KM SOUTHWEST OF
AIZAL (42727) AND 85 KM SOUTHEAST OF AGARTALA (42724). IT WOULD MOVE NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION
IS SEEN OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, BANGLADESH, TRIPURA,
MIZORAM, MANIPUR, NAGALAND, MEGHALAYA, ASSAM, WEST ARUNACHAL PRADESH AND
NORTH ARAKAN COAST ADJOINING MYANMAR. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE
(CTT) IS ABOUT -51
0
C.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA OVER
NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES,
ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category
16-05-2013/0900 23.5/92.0 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
16-05-2013/1200 24.0/92.5 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression
16-05-2013/1800 25.5/94.0 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
17-05-2013/0000 26.5/95.5 25-35 gusting to 45 Low
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.

Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

Time of issue: 1900 hours IST Dated: 16-05-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 01/2013/33
Sub: Cyclonic Storm, MAHASEN weakened into Deep depression over Mizoram
The cyclonic storm MAHASEN over Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and
weakened into a deep depression and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of 16
th
May 2013 over
Mizoram near latitude 24.0
0
N and longitude 92.5
0
E, about 35 km North of Aizal. It would move
northeastwards and weaken into a depression during next 6 hours.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques,
estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST) Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category
16-05-2013/1730 24.0/92.5 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
16-05-2013/2330 25.5/94.0 35-45 gusting to 55 Depression
17-05-2013/0530 26.5/95.5 25-35 gusting to 45 Low
Under the influence of this system, Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy
falls at a isolated places would occur over South and east Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura
and Nagaland during next 24 hours.
Squally wind speed reaching 50 -60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph would prevail over
South Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura and Nagaland during next 12 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of the 17
th
May, 2013.

(Image: RSMC NEW DELHI) Observed & Forecast Track (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Track (Click image for source)

(Image: JTWC) Multispectral Satellite Imagery (Click image for source)

WTIO31 PGTW 160900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN) WARNING NR 025//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN) WARNING NR 025

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

160600Z NEAR 23.0N 91.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 025 DEGREES AT 22 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 91.0E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z 25.8N 93.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:

160900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 91.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM

SOUTHEASTWARD OF DHAKA, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD

AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC MAHASEN HAS MADE LANDFALL

NORTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH AND IS RAPIDLY FALLING APART AS

THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. RADAR IMAGERY FROM KOLKATA,

INDIA ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE RAPID WEAKENING AS CONVECTION HAS

SHALLOWED. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE

WESTERLIES AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN INDIA WHILE CONTINUALLY

WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS RUGGED TERRAIN AND HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS)

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01B WILL DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS IN THE

NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL

WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone One

(wunderground.com)

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type
————————————————————-

06 GMT 05/10/13 4.8N 93.6E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/10/13 5.5N 92.7E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/10/13 6.1N 91.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/11/13 7.0N 91.0E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/11/13 7.7N 90.2E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/11/13 8.8N 88.8E 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/11/13 9.3N 88.1E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/12/13 10.2N 86.9E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/12/13 10.0N 87.3E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/12/13 10.2N 87.0E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/12/13 10.7N 86.7E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/13/13 11.5N 86.7E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/13/13 11.8N 86.4E 60 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/13/13 12.4N 85.7E 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/13/13 12.9N 85.4E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/14/13 13.7N 85.3E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/14/13 14.2N 85.8E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/14/13 14.8N 86.2E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/14/13 15.4N 86.7E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/15/13 16.4N 87.3E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/15/13 17.5N 87.8E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/15/13 18.5N 88.4E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/15/13 19.6N 89.1E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/16/13 20.5N 89.9E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/16/13 23.0N 91.0E 50 Tropical Storm

TSR logoN Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 May, 2013 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm MAHASEN (01B) currently located near 23.0 N 91.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for TS is 90% currently
Bangladesh
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
probability for TS is 75% currently
Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Tropical storm Mahasen struck Bangladesh at about 02:00 GMT on 16 May.

Source: Tropical Storm Risk Thu, 16 May 2013 08:20 AM

Author: Tropical Storm Risk

Tropical storm Mahasen struck Bangladesh at about 02:00 GMT on 16 May.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall was near 21.1 N, 90.2 E.Mahasen brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 92 km/h (57 mph).Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL).

Refugees Refuse to move ahead of Mahasen

Published on May 15, 2013 by

cyclone

Thousands of Muslim Refugees along the Burma coastline are refusing to evacuate ahead of Cyclone Mahasen.

Camps dot the Burma coastline after thousands fled Clashes between Buddhist and Muslims over the past year.  Sittwe is where the largest of the evacuations are taking place.  A low lying area near the coast where thousands of make shift homes have been set up.  Most of these “buildings” are made out of mud, cloth and wood.

But, Reuters reports that many of the residents are refusing to leave and move yet again. One resident was quoted as saying “I lost my mother and two imagesyoung daughters during the clashes between Muslims and Rakhine (Buddhists) last year. I lost everything. That’s why I pray to Allah to let all the people from here die with the storm. I don’t want to go nowhere. I’ll stay here. If I die, I want to die here.”

Even Myanmar’s Vice PresidentNyan Tun visits the internal displaced people camp in Rakhine states on Tuesday (May 14) to persuade them to relocate but many refuse to go.

The storm already taking the lives of nearly 100 people yesterday in a boat capsizing. In Sri Lanka seven deaths due to heavy rains was reported.  These low lying camps and the people that live in them if they stay in place ahead of this storm they will be putting themselves at a serious risk. Cyclone Mahasen is not a severe storm by any means. And most first world countries would laugh at this storm as a minor nuisance. But these villages where the storm is headed will under severe threat.

.” – westernpacificweather.com

For complete updates please check out our Tropical Information Center. 

What makes Mahansen so dangerous

Published on May 13, 2013 by

“Cyclone Mahansen continues to be only forecasted to become a equivalent of a weak typhoon before landfall in Bangladesh on Thursday. To many around the world and especially first world countries this sounds like a gentle breeze to ride out in the coming days.

Yet many of those living in low lying areas in Myanmar this storm is a very real and serious threat.   Nearly 130,000 people are living in makeshift camps near the coastal plains of the country after fleeing violence between clashes Buddhist and Muslims in western portions of the country. These cyclonecamps are not made to withstand cyclone, even a weak one. And this pending storms brings the threat of a disaster if it is to hit of these refugee camps as a Severe Cyclonic System.

At this time the worst of the storm is forecasted to stay west but with the pending track still uncertain. Even if the was to miss the refugee camps a heavy rainfall would still bring harsh conditions for those who make the area home.  We hope for the safety of those ahead of the storm.

It would be easy to say this area is used to deadly storms. In 2008 the country suffered 180,000 casualties when a cyclone hit the Irrawaddy River delta.  In 1991 a cyclone hit a little farther north in Bangledesh resulting in the deaths of 350,000 people.

” – westernpacificweather.com

Storm Surge Inundates 25 villages in Bangladesh

Published on May 16, 2013 by

This article comes from https://chittagong.recovers.org/ , if you need help or wish to help the recovery efforts from this storm please click the link.

CYCLONE MAHASEN Storm surge inundates 25 Patuakhali villages STAR ONLINE REPORT At least 25 villages of four upazilas of Patuakhali were flooded Wednesday night as storm surge washed away flood control dams with the Cyclone Mahasen approaching the coastal region.

Many of the marooned people of the villages rushed to cyclone shelters and other high lands after the high tide stormed made way into their villages stormaround 11:00pm, our Patuakhali correspondent reported.

The upazilas are: Kolapara, Golachipa, Rangabali and Dashmina.

The storm surge of at least five feet height was reported in the villages.

Meanwhile, the Patuakhali town went under at least four feet of tide early morning as a drizzle continues to pour since Wednesday evening.

Our correspondent reported that the local Met office recorded a 60kph wind in the town last night. It is 70kph in Kuakata, a popular tourist destination.

Some of the inundated people have yet to leave their houses for safer place.

UN OCHA Flash Update 6, Cyclone Mahasen, Bangladesh and Myanmar

“Tropical Cyclone Mahasen, which has been downgraded to a tropical storm, made landfall in Bangladesh on the morning of 16 May (local time), bringing strong winds and heavy rains to Chittagong and surrounding districts. On its current path, it will continue to move northeast from Myanmar and towards the eastern states of India. The current speed at the centre of the storm is around 80 km/h and is expected to reduce its wind speed to 55 km/h as it continues to move inland.

In Bangladesh, an estimated one million people were evacuated from 13 coastal districts in the 24-hour prior to the arrival of the storm. A tidal surge has caused floods in the districts of Barguna, Bhola, Patuakhali, Nohakhali and Laxmipur. The Government has not declared a disaster, and no request for international assistance has been received at this time.

The United Nations met this morning in Dhaka and committed to working collaboratively with the Government and to provide support where required. Humanitarian partners report they are ready to respond. While people have moved to evacuation centres, there have been some instances of resistance due to multiple factors including changes in weather conditions.

The Bangladesh Government, through its Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) has broadcast pre-cyclone Public Service Announcements (PSAs), carrying preparedness messages endorsed by the Department of Disaster Management via national radio. Post-cyclone messages for affected people are on standby to be broadcast immediately after the cyclone has passed.

A distribution plan for food assistance has been developed by humanitarian agencies, to supplement Government food and cash reserves. Essential nutrition and emergency WASH supplies have been pre-positioned for approximately 43,000 households in vulnerable districts. More than 6,000 family kits and two mobile water treatment units have been transferred to Chittagong.

In Myanmar, while it appears that the storm has moved further away from Rakhine state, heavy rain is still expected. Approximately 250 staff members of humanitarian organisations are in country and remain on standby and ready to respond; a number of them with expertise in rapid assessments. Assessment teams will begin assessment of affected sites as soon as possible after the storm subsides.

Assessment teams and protection monitoring continued working today at various camps with the assistance of community leaders, religious leaders, and international aid workers to help alleviate concerns of those resistant to move.

The government estimates nearly 78,000 people from 13 townships in Rakhine State have been relocated in total. UN agencies maintain that all measures must be taken to ensure that no lives are under undue threat. Some communities continued to resist relocatation to Government buildings but were eventually persuaded to move into other nearby locations, including schools, madrasas, and with host communities.

OCHA, UNHCR and UNICEF led training sessions today for staff on inter-sectoral rapid assessment, as agencies and humanitarian partners will initiate a post-storm assessment process across Rakhine in the coming days. The assessment will address the current needs of people in the relocation sites as well as requirements for their future return. At this time, it is unclear when the relocated communities will return to their places of temporary settlement, or whether other options will be made available for some.

Although Mahasen has passed Rakhine State, it is clear that many thousands are still accommodated in areas which make them more vulnerable to the elements and this must not continue. The Government of the United Kingdom today pledged a £4.4 million (US$6.7 million) humanitarian aid package for IDPs in Rakhine State ahead of the cyclone and rainy seasons. The aid package will provide 80,000 people with access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation facilities; treatment for malnourished children; and, hygiene kits for 40,000 people.

OCHA expects to issue another Flash Update tomorrow.” – unocha

Cyclone Mahasen hits Bangladeshi coast

(Video credit:AlJazeeraEnglish)

Published on 16 May 2013

Hundreds of thousands of people in Bangladesh have been evacuated, as Cyclone Mahasen approached one of the poorest countries in Asia with winds of around 100km per hour. Similar measures have been taken in Myanmar however, some displaced people in Rakhine state have ignored calls for them to evacuate camps. The UN said that more than 4.1 million people could be at risk from the cyclone, which started crossing Bangladesh’s low-lying coast on Thursday.

MARITIME

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1750

WTIN01 DEMS 151750

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 900 UTC 15 MAY 2013

PART I:- STORM WARNING

PART II:-

THE CYCLONIC STORM (MAHASEN) OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF

BENGAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC

OF YESTERDAY THE, 14TH MAY 2013 WITHIN HALF A DEG. OF

LAT. 14.5 DEG. N / LONG. 86.0 DEG. E, ABOUT 850 KMS

NORTHWEST OF PORTBLAIR, 460 KMS SOUTHEAST OFVISHAKHAPATNAM

650 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PARADIP 1060 KMS SOUTHWEST OF

CHITTAGONG (.)IT MOVED FURTHER NORTHEASTWARDS AND NOW

LIES CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY THE,15TH MAY 2013

WITHIN HALF A DEG. OF LAT. 16.5 DEG.N /LONG. 87.0 EG.E,

ABOUT 800 KMS NORTH WEST OF PORT BLAIR,380 KMS EAST

SOUTHEAST OF SHKHAPAYNAM,520 KMS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

PARADIP AND 820 KMS SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG (.)IT

WOULD INESIFY FURTHER AND MOVE EASTWARDS AND CROSS

BANGLA DESH COAST DURING NIGHT OF16TH MAY 2013(.)

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVOURABLE FOR ONSET OF

SOUTHWEST MONSOON OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING

SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL DURING NEXT 48 HOURS(.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80

DEG.E(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-

1)N OF 05 DEG N:MAINLY NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

2)S OF 05 DEG N:SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-

1)N OF 05 DEG N:MAINLY NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

2)S OF 05 DEG N:SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

ARB: A2 ARABIAN SEA N. OF 10 DEG N.AND W OF 80 DEG E(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

BOB:A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N AND EOF 80 DEG

E(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2-3 M (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2-3 M (.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E

(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-0-1 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-5-6 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-0-1 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-5-6 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : NicobarComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Portblair
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-5.0 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hours of 16-05-2013 along the west and east coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : AndamanComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Portblair
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-5.0 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hours of 16-05-2013 along the west and east coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : Tamil NaduComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry
High wind waves in the range of 2.5 5.0 meters are predicted during 02:30 hrs on 16-05-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 17-05-2013 along the Kolachal to kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : OrissaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Gopalpur
High wind waves in the range of 2.5 to 4.8 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 16-05-2013 along the coast from Gopalpur to Baleshwar of Orissa coast.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Gopalpur

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : West Bengal
High wind waves in the range of 2.5 to 4.8 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 16-05-2013 along the coast from False point to Sagar Island of West Bengal coast.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Sagar-Roads

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : KeralaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Kollam
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-4.5 meters are forecasted during 02:30 hours on 16-05-2013 to 23:30 hours of 17-05-2013 along the Kerala coast between Vizhinjam to Kasargod.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Quilon

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : LakshadweepComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Agatti
High wind waves in the range of 2.0-3.6 meters are forecasted during 0830 hours on 15-05-2013 to 2330 hours of 17-05-2013 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Minicoy

images
Kalpana Image

Tropical Cyclone #01B #ONE #MAHASEN 120900Z near 10.2N 87.1E, moved NW at 12 knots (JTWC) – 120513 0900z

Updated…. please go here:

Tropical Cyclone #01B #ONE #MAHASEN 130900Z near 12.1N 86.3E, moved NW at 04 knots (JTWC) 1305130900z