UK: Cliff rescue at Sewerby, East Yorkshire, after 17 yr old tried to rescue dog over cliff edge – Published 300115 1827z

My PhotoFriday, 30 January 2015
YOUTH RESCUED FROM CLIFFS AT SEWERBY, EAST YORKSHIRE
A seventeen year old who went after his dog after it had gone over a cliff edge had to be rescued himself.
Humber Maritime Rescue Co-ordination Centre received a 999 call from the youth’s mother at 3.15pm on 29th January to say he was stuck on cliffs at Sewerby, close to the MRCC.
His mother said he had tried to rescue their dog which had gone over the cliff edge. The dog had made its own way back, leaving the 17 year old stuck on an icy ledge.
Humber Coastguard immediately sent the Coastguard Rescue Teams from Bridlington and Filey to the scene to assess the situation. On arrival the Coastguard Rescue officers made the decision that the quickest and safest method of rescue would be by helicopter so the RAF Rescue Helicopter based at Leconfield rescued the youth from the cliff.


Watch Manager Mike Puplett said
‘This was a well executed rescue and was resolved quickly.
‘However my message once again is for dog owners to keep their pets on a lead when they are close to cliff edges.

‘Also, members of the public should never climb or descend cliffs in order to carry out a rescue themselves.
‘The weather on that day was inclement, and a snow flurry had just engulfed the area, making the cliffs even more treacherous.’

 

South Indian Ocean: Very Intense Tropical cyclone EUNICE (8 & 09s) 300600Z near 18.4S / 68.0E, moving SSE at 8 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – Published 300115 0800z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice (8)(09S)

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0915.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09S_292330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300000Z — NEAR 17.7S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 67.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 19.0S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 20.7S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 21.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 22.1S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 25.9S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 31.4S 97.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 31NM EYE. A 292311Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE WELL DEFINED CENTRAL CORE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE SHARP CONSOLIDATED NATURE OF
THE CYCLONE. TC EUNICE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY BELOW A POINT SOURCE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION, TC
09S IS TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
GRADIENT PROLONGING ITS EXPOSURE TO SSTS GREATER THAN 26C. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ENABLING TC EUNICE TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24 TC 09S WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE NER REORIENTS TO THE NORTH.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 09S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 123
WTIO20 FMEE 300608
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2015 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 30/01/2015 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EUNICE) 900 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 68.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH
ERN SEMI CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/130 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CE
NTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTEN
DING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 115 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTE
NDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, E
XTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
19.5 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 130 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL
NNNN

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

UK: Searchers for missing trawler Z85 Morgenster in English Channel find bodies – Published 290115 1900z (GMT/UTC)

My Photo

Friday, 30 January 2015
UPDATE ON SEARCH FOR OVERDUE FISHING VESSEL
The Search and Rescue operation looking for the missing fishing vessel which had been fishing in the Dover Strait is being co-ordinated by the French coast guard as it is now in their territorial waters.

Dover Coastguard was initially alerted to the missing vessel on the afternoon of 28th January.

The search is now concentrated on an area four miles from the French coast. Any further involvement of the UK authorities will be at the request of the French coast guard.

Thursday, 29 January 2015
UPDATE ON SEARCH FOR OVERDUE FISHING VESSEL
The search continues this morning for a missing fishing vessel which had been fishing in the Dover Strait.
Dover Coastguard was alerted to the disappearance yesterday afternoon. Four crew were known to be onboard.
An RAF helicopter is searching the area along with a French maritime aircraft. Two all-weather lifeboats from Dungeness and Dover are on the scene.
A number of Belgian and Dutch fishing vessels remain on the scene in the area, looking out for any sign of their missing colleagues.
The weather conditions on scene remain challenging.

End

LifeboatsDungeness and Dover RNLI lifeboats search for missing Belgian fishing trawler

The volunteer lifeboat crews of two Kent RNLI lifeboat stations launched yesterday evening (Wednesday 28 January) to help search for a Belgian fishing trawler in the English Channel.

Dungeness all-weather lifeboat launched at 5.08pm after being tasked by Solent Coastguard to search for the 40m vessel which lost all communication earlier the same day at 1.30pm.

The Belgian-registered trawler, carrying a crew of four people, was situated 10 miles south of Dungeness when all contact was lost.

Hours after the Dungeness RNLI crew launched, Dover Coastguard requested the launch of Dover RNLI lifeboat to assist in the search. The crew launched their all-weather lifeboat just after 7pm.

Also involved in the search were coastguard helicopters Rescue 104 and Rescue 125. It is also understood several other fishing trawlers were assisting with the search.

Chris Ubee, Lifeboat Operations Manager at Dungeness RNLI, said the weather and sea conditions for his crew of five volunteers were challenging at first, but later subsided. He said: ‘In the afternoon there was some strong gusting winds and the sea was very lumpy. That did later calm slightly and by 10pm the crew were searching beneath clear skies, with a moderate breeze and moderate to rough seas.’

However, for the Dover lifeboat crew conditions were set to worsen through the night, with a warning of severe gales expected after 11pmon Wednesday. Billy Hollis, Deputy Launching Authority for Dover RNLI said: ‘Our crew of eight volunteers were tasked to search an area known as Varn Bank, south of Dover.

‘Throughout the evening we were operating approximately eight miles away from where Dungeness lifeboat were searching, which gives an idea of the sizeable search area

’Throughout the evening we were operating approximately eight miles away from where Dungeness lifeboat were searching, which gives an idea of the sizeable search area.’

At midnight, both Dungeness and DOver RNLI lifeboats were still searching for any sign of the missing trawler. The RNLI’s all-weather lifeboats are equipped to search up to 100 nautical miles out to sea. At the speeds they were travelling, it was estimated the lifeboats could search for several days without needing to refuel.

  • Update 7am, Thursday 29 January. Hastings RNLI lifeboat crew were asked to join he search at 12.15am today (Thursday). Dungeness RNLI lifeboat crew were stood down at 12.50am. And at 4.45am, both Dover and Hastings RNLI lifeboats returned to their stations when the search was suspended, possibly to recommence at first light

Press Report

BBC   29 January 2015 Last updated at 17:04

Missing trawler rescue teams find bodies in English Channel

The vessel believed to be missing off Dungeness

The vessel went missing in rough seas and strong winds

Rescuers searching for a Belgian trawler missing in the English Channel with four people on board have recovered two bodies from the sea.

The search for the fishing boat began on Wednesday afternoon when it vanished in rough seas and gale force winds.

The RNLI said the bodies, which were found in the sea off Boulogne, had been recovered back to the French port.

A life jacket and wooden debris were spotted by a French fixed wing aircraft north-west of Boulogne earlier.

Those on board the Z85 Morgenster are believed to be Dutch, Portuguese and Belgian.

A coastguard helicopter, two Kent lifeboats and a French search and rescue helicopter carried out the first search for the trawler, which had been fishing in the Dover Strait.

A number of Belgian and Dutch fishing vessels have also been in the area looking for any signs of the missing vessel.

UK: 5 fishermen rescued off the Hebredies after their boat Iuda Naofa sank – Published 200115 1815z (GMT/UTC)

The Coastguard was notified of a fishing vessel in distress just before 11am this morning. The Iuda Naofa, a 23m Irish fishing vessel, was taking on water 48 miles north of the Butt of Lewis.

The Coastguard Rescue helicopter was requested to attend the scene and drop a salvage pump onto the Iuda Naofa to pump off the ingress of water. However, the vessel became swamped and started to sink.

The Coastguard Rescue helicopter airlifted two of the crew onto the nearby sister fishing vessel, the Star of Hope. The other three crew were transferred by helicopter to the Western Isles hospital, where they are being treated for mild hypothermia.

Coastguard Duty Watch Manager, Paul Tunstall said

“The weather conditions on scene were very rough seas with southerly force 6 winds, evacuating the five crew swiftly and safely before the vessel went down was a great achievement.” –Maritime and Coastguard Agency

“Malin Head Coast Guard assisted in the saving of 5 fishermen off the Hebredies this afternoon. At about 1030 this morning Malin picked up a call for help on medium frequency 2182Khz for the Iuda Naofa taking water. Details taken and passed to MRCC Stornaway who sent out a helicopter. The boat sank. 3 crew airlifted and 2 taken onboard another boat Star of Hope. Only for the Listening watch the IRCG continue to hold on 2182Khz this could have easily ended with loss of life. This is the second 2182 call that Malin has dealt with in recent months both of which resulted in lives been saved. Well done lads.” –Irish Coast Guard

News Reports

BBC

Five rescued after fishing boat sinks off Isle of Lewis

Irish vessel Iuda Naofa

Five people were airlifted from the Irish vessel Iuda Naofa when it began to sink

Five crewmen have been rescued after a fishing boat started to sink off the Isle of Lewis.

The Irish vessel Iuda Naofa got into difficulty at about 11:00 when it started taking on water about 48 miles (77km) off the Butt of Lewis.

Stornoway Coastguard helicopter dropped a salvage pump to the crew, but the boat became swamped and started to sink.

Two crewmen were then airlifted to another boat and three to hospital.

The three have been treated at Western Isles Hospital for hypothermia.

The fishing boat has sunk.

Coastguard duty watch manager Paul Tunstall said: “The weather conditions on scene were very rough seas with southerly force 6 winds, evacuating the five crew swiftly and safely before the vessel went down was a great achievement.”

Australia (WA): Tropical Low moving off W Kimberley coast unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth) – Published 190115 1123z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 5:43 pm WST Monday 19 January 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Kimberley low unlikely to become a tropical cyclone. Warnings cancelled but the system will be closely monitored.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: No active warning areas.

Watch zone: No active watch areas.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near centre 28 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 83 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South, 121.9 degrees East , 45 kilometres southwest of Broome and 420 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour .

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Hazards:

Sustained gales are not expected in coastal communities but areas of heavy rain are likely over the west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details – http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

ALL CLEAR: People in, near or between Cape Leveque and Mardie are advised that damaging winds are no longer expected.

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 5 pm January 19 tropical low 18.2S 121.9E 75
+6hr 11 pm January 19 tropical low 18.6S 120.7E 85
+12hr 5 am January 20 tropical low 19.2S 119.3E 100
+18hr 11 am January 20 tropical low 19.8S 117.6E 120
+24hr 5 pm January 20 tropical low 20.6S 115.7E 140
+36hr 5 am January 21 tropical low 21.6S 113.3E 175
+48hr 5 pm January 21 tropical low 22.6S 111.9E 215
+60hr 5 am January 22 tropical low 23.1S 110.9E 260
+72hr 5 pm January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.#

Western Australia Warnings Summary

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/index.shtml?ref=hdr

JTWC

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S122E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0952UTC 19 JANUARY 2015

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0900 UTC a tropical low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal two south (18.2S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal nine east (121.9E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 15 knots
Central pressure: 1003 hPa
The tropical low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

AREA AFFECTED
Nil.

FORECAST
Gales are no longer expected over marine areas

REMARKS

No further warnings will be issued unless the system intensifies.

WEATHER PERTH

There are other warnings at METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: 19/1000 (PhT) LOW (LPA) formerly “#Mekkhala/ #Amang” 16.8˚N, 122.7˚E – PAGASA – Updated 190115 0930z (GMT/UTC)

LOW PRESSURE AREA formerly 01W Mekkhala/ Amang

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Mekkhala_sat_anim

Japan Meteorological agency

1501-00 19th

15011915 19th

TD
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 18 January 2015

<Analyses at 18/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N16°00′(16.0°)
E122°00′(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa

PAGASA-DOST Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

FOR: LOW PRESSURE AREA (FORMERLY “AMANG”)
ISSUED AT: 10:30 AM, 19 JANUARY 2015

At 10:00 am today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) formerly “AMANG” was estimated based on all available data at 85 km Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora (16.8˚N, 122.7˚E). This weather system is expected to bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos.

Meanwhile, fisher folk and other small seacrafts are advised not venture out into the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon and the Eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon.

The next update will be incorporated in the 24-hour public weather forecast to be issued at 5:00 pm today while the next weather advisory will be issued at 11:00 am tomorrow.

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.

10410341_742438229199422_5565964766380787603_n

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0115 19th

 https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/01W_181732sair.jpg
WTPN31 PGTW 182100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 022A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181800Z — NEAR 15.7N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 123.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 16.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 17.9N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 123.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BAGUIO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS IT WAS STRIPPED OF DEEP CONVECTION BY STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AIDED BY A COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE 181500Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. TD
MEKKHALA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO THE HIGH VWS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: RELOCATED INITIAL
AND FORECAST POSITIONS AFTER ANALYSIS OF UPDATED AND MORE ACCURATE
SATELLITE DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression MEKKHALA (01W) currently located near 15.1 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Find warnings here:

METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mauritius/La Reunion: Tropical Storm CHEDZA 06S 181200Z: 22.9 S / 52.3 E, moving SE 8 at knots(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 180115 1520z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA 06

….. HEAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS. – RSMC LA REUNION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

chedza_sat

RSMC LA REUNION

chedza trajectoire

chedza sat anim

Bulletin Réunion
JOURNEE DU DIMANCHE 18

La Tempête tropicale CHEDZA était située à 16h à 360km a l Ouest-Sud-ouest des côtes réunionnaises et se déplace vers le sud-est à 15km/h.

Vigilance houle cyclonique d’ouest de 2.5m à 3 m sur les cotes Ouest et Sud en cours.

Flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest humide.
NUIT DU DIMANCHE 18 AU LUNDI 19
Les précipitions deviennent éparses sur l Est en début de nuit pour devenir plus fréquentes dans le Nord de l’île approximativement de St Leu à St Benoit en passant par le chef lieu en seconde partie de nuit .

Le vent de secteur Nord reste soutenu plus particulièrement sur les façades Nord-Ouest et Est ( 60 à 70km/h) et dans les hauts de la Réunion avec des rafales pouvant atteindre les 80 à 90 Km/h
LUNDI 19
Pris dans le flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest des averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest et Nord, ailleurs comme dans le sud sauvage le ciel est plus clément avec de belles éclaircies.

Au fil des heures l’instabilité se réactive et les nuages se développent dans l’intérieur.

Ces deniers débordent ensuite sur le sud sauvage où des averses sont alors attendues.

Le vent reste soutenue il souffle principalement sur les côtes Ouest et Est avec des rafales de 70 à 80km/h. Sur les hauteurs exposées, les rafales sont proches de 80 km/h.

La mer est agitée à forte au vent, une vigilance houle cyclonique d’Ouest est en cours de Champs-Borne à la Pointe de la Table en passant par St Leu, houle comprise entre 2. et 2.5 mètres soit 5 m pour les hauteurs maximales . Une houle de Sud-Est de 2.5 à 3 est egalement de mise sur les cotes Est et Sud .
MARDI 20
Poussées par un vent d’Ouest, quelques averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest, ailleurs c’est globalement du soleil. Au fil des heures, les nuages se développent dans

l’intérieure de l’ile et des débordement nuageux concernent le sud de la Réunion ou quelques averses peuvent se produire

Vent d ouest modéré avec des rafales sur les cote Sud-Ouest.

houle de Sud Ouest de 2 a 2.5M de la Pointe de Aigrette à la Pointe de la Table.
MERCREDI 21
Belle journée, la masse d’air s’assèche le soleil l’emporte. les développement nuageux de l apres-midi restent limites.

vent de Sud-Ouest faible à modéré le matin, tournant Sud en fin de journée.

Houle d ouest sud ouest de 2 à 2.5m

Reunion Bulletin
DAY SUNDAY 18

Tropical Storm CHEDZA was located at 16h to al 360km west-south-west coast of Reunion and moves southeast at 15km / h.

Vigilance westerly cyclonic swell from 2.5m to 3m on South West Coasts and in progress.

RSS wet North-West.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY 18 19

The rush become scattered over the East early night in order to become more common in the north of the island approximately St Leu in St Benoit through the main town in the second part of the night.

North wind sector remains particularly strong on Northwest and east facades (60 to 70km / h) and the heights of the Meeting with gusts to 80 to 90 km / h

Monday 19

Caught in the flow of North-West showers are possible early in the day on the west facade and north as elsewhere in the wild south the sky is partly cloudy skies with.

As the hours instability reactivates and clouds develop in the interior.

These funds then spill over into the wild south, where rainfall is then expected.

The wind remains strong it blows mainly on the west and east coast with gusts of 70 to 80 km / h. On the exposed heights, the bursts are near 80 km / h.

The sea is rough with strong wind, vigilance cyclone swell West is being Champs Terminal Point Table via St Leu, swell between 2 and 2.5 m or 5 m for the maximum heights . A Southeast swell from 2.5 to 3 is also placing on the east and south coasts.

Tuesday 20

Driven by a west wind, some rain showers are possible early in the day on the west facade, it is also generally the sun. The hours, the clouds develop in

interior of the island and cloudy infinity concern southern Meeting or a few showers may occur

West of moderate wind with gusts on the South West Coast.

Southwest swell 2 to 2.5M of Pointe Heron Pointe de la Table.

Wednesday 21

Beautiful day, the mass of air dries the sun wins. development of cloudy after noon are limits.

Southwest winds weak to moderate in the morning, turning south in the afternoon.

Houle southwest of West 2 to 2.5m

Bulletin du 18 JANVIER à 16H45 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature des systèmes dépressionnaires tropicaux présents sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE EX-BANSI.
Pression estimée au centre: 960 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 25.8 Sud / 78.3 Est.
(vingt cinq degres huit sud et soixante dix-huit degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 2340 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST.
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 46 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 33.0 Sud / 90.9 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 38.1 Sud / 104.1 Est.
————————————————-
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHEDZA.
Pression estimée au centre: 982 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 22.9 Sud / 52.3 Est.
(vingt deux degres neuf sud et cinquante deux degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 360 km au secteur: OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 15 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 25.3 Sud / 53.1 Est.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 27.8 Sud / 54.6 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 21/01 à 16h locales, par 30.6 Sud / 57.9 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 22/01 à 16h locales, par 35.4 Sud / 63.1 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 23/01 à 16h locales, par 45.5 Sud / 78.5 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 23h local

Bulletin January 18 at 4:45 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical storm systems present on the southwestern Indian Ocean.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BANSI.
Estimated central pressure 960 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time 25.8 South / 78.3 East.
(twenty five eight degrees south and seventy-eight degrees is three).
Distance from Reunion coast: 2340 km to the sector: EAST SOUTHEAST.
Displacement: EAST SOUTHEAST, 46 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 33.0 South / 90.9 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 38.1 South / 104.1 East.
————————————————-
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA.
Estimated central pressure 982 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time: 22.9 South / 52.3 East.
(twenty two nine degrees fifty-two degrees south and three east).
Distance from Reunion coast 360 km sector: WEST-SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTHEAST 15 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 25.3 South / 53.1 East.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 27.8 South / 54.6 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 21/01 at 16h local by 30.6 South / 57.9 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 22/01 at 16h local by 35.4 South / 63.1 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Centre positioned on 23/01 at 16h local by 45.5 South / 78.5 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next newsletter to 23h local

ZCZC 453
WTIO30 FMEE 181306

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CHEDZA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 52.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 350 SW: 190 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/21 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/22 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/01/23 12 UTC: 45.5 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS UNCONVENTIONAL AND MENTIONED INTENSITY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK TECHNIQ
UE THAT IS NOT ADAPTED ANY-MORE FOR THIS KIND OF SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIG
H PRESSURES.
IN THE WAKE OF CHEZA, IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS EXIST AND OCCUR LOCALLY H
EAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS.
CHEDZA KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARDS TOWARDS A TRANSIENT MID
-LEVEL TROUGH.
ON THIS PATH, FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS LOW TO MODER
ATE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD ALLOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

No warning

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 181240

WTIO22 FMEE 181240
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BANSI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 78.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 430 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 620 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 710 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
29.1 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
33.0 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S 161200Z POSITION nr 21.6 S / 66.4 E, moving SE 16 knots ((RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 160115 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

si201505_5day

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bansi

KML Google Earth

WTIO31 FMEE 161237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20142015
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 926 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SO: 640 NO: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 150
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2015 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
24H: 17/01/2015 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2015 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2015 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
60H: 19/01/2015 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
72H: 19/01/2015 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2015 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 21/01/2015 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5+ ET CI=6.5+
LA SIGNATURE DVORAK S’EST DEGRADEE DEPUIS LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC
UN OEIL DE PLUS DE 45 MN DE DIAMETRE. L’IMAGE MICRO-ONDE F15 DE 1026Z
MONTRE UNE EROSION DU MUR DE L’OEIL COTE OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE MEME
SI LE CI DVORAK EST A 6.5+, L’INTENSITE DU VENT MAX A ETE RETROGRADEE A 110
KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE CES ELEMENTS. BANSI CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER
REGULIEREMENT ET RAPIDEMENT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST.
BANSI DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L’EST-SUD-EST DANS LE
COURANT DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU PLONGER VERS LE SUD-EST.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME PASSE MAINTENANT AU SUD DE LA
DORSALE D’ALTITUDE ET UN TALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SE RAPPROCHE
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. PAR CONSEQUENT LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT ET EN RAISON DE LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS 25S, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACQUERIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES HYBRIDES POST-
TROPICALES DIMANCHE, PUIS EXTRATROPICALES A PARTIR DE LUNDI OU MARDI.
JUSQUE MARDI, LES VENTS NE VONT S’ATTENUER QUE LENTEMENT AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION. MERCREDI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT

ZCZC 570
WTIO30 FMEE 161237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 926 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SW: 640 NW: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/17 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/17 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.5+
THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EYE
DIAMETER MORE LARGE THAN 45 NM. 1026Z F15 MW PICTURE SHOWS AN ERODED
EYE-WALL WESTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, CI IS AT 6.5+ DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINT, BUT INTENSITY OF THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED AT
110 KT. BANSI CONTINUES TO MOVE REGULARLY AND RAPIDLY ON A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
TONIGHT BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD.
WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRA-TROPICAL FROM
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNTIL TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP RAPIDLY.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh0515

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_160530sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 20.0S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 65.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 23.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 24.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 25.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 31.6S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES TC BANSI HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AS THE EYE HAS
CONTRACTED DOWN TO 32NM AS THE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AND DEFINED. HOWEVER, A 160442Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE OBSERVED IN THE MSI ANIMATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP
WHILE KNES INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE AS WIDELY DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TC 05S
IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BE ACCELERATED BY TAU 36
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72
WHICH WILL COMPLETE ETT. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk

See:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201505S.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 151223

WTIO20 FMEE 161228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI) 926 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 200 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 300
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 345 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 420 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VIII_S

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Wales: Major fire at Indian Restaurant, Monk Street, Abergavenny. Person jumps from window – Published 030115 0922z (GMT/UTC)

Sundaarbon Indian Restaurant fire at Abergavenny. Picture credit: @LoveBreconBeaco

Jennie Griffiths

@GriffithsJECtrl

(Head of South Wales Fire and Rescue Service Fire Control and Designate Head of Fire Controls at the Joint Emergency Centre SWP HQ Bridgend:)

“At 03.26 a 999 call was received to a flat on fire with persons reported as trapped on Monk Street. Abergavenny crews responded

Update Abergavenny: at 03.34 on arrival crews requested 2 further fire engines one person had jumped from a window

Update Abergavenny: Blaenavon+Brynmawr crews responded to the incident further people were believed still to be inside the building

Update Abergavenny: At 03.38 crews requested 2 further fire engines as they were still searching inside the building for people trapped

Update Abergavenny: Cefn Fforest and New Inn crews responded also an Aerial Ladder and a water bowser

Update Abergavenny: at 03.46 crews reported this was a terraced property well alight 3 storeys in well developed fire 5 people led to safety

Update Abergavenny: At 04.12 crews reported a row of 3storey terraced properties well alight + crews in BAs were still searching for people

Update Abergavenny: At 04.14 crews requested a further 2 fire engines making the total 8 fire engines Cwmbran+Abersychan responded

Update Abergavenny: At 05.44 crews reported all persons safe and the fire was under control 3 persons rescued by crews in adjoining property

Update Abergavenny:At the height of the fire 8 fire engines,Aerial ladder+2 bowsers fought the fire using 6BAs 2jets 2hosereel+water tower

Update Abergavenny: 5 fire engines a water bowser and aerial ladder remain in attendance the building was used as an Indian Restaurant

Update Abergavenny: Fire investigation officers and Police will liaise at 0900 this morning to investigate the cause”

==============================================

Java Sea: AirAsia flight QZ8501 from Indonesia to Singapore – Two big objects found. Total bodies recovered is 30. – Updated 030115 0710z (GMT/UTC)

Published on Jan 3, 2015 11:34 AM

PANGKALAN BUN/JAKARTA – Two big objects were found in the search for Indonesia AirAsia flight QZ8501 on Saturday, as indonesia’s transport ministry said the plane was flying on an unauthorised schedule when it disappeared.

The airline was not permitted to fly the Surabaya-Singapore route on Sundays and had not asked to change its schedule.

Meantime, the two objects spotted on Saturday are about 30 metres under water and located near an oil slick spotted on Friday, said Mr Bambang Soelistyo, chief of Indonesia’s search and rescue agency Basarnas. The larger of the objects was around 10m by 5m.

“With the discovery of an oil spill and two big parts of the aircraft, I can assure you these are the parts of the AirAsia plane we have been looking for,” he said.

“We are lowering a ROV (remotely operated underwater vehicle) underwater to get an actual picture of the objects detected on the sea floor. All are at the depth of 30m,” Mr Soelistyo said, adding that a strong current was making it difficult to operate the ROV.

Three vessels sent out to a sea area where the oil slick was spotted located the “two objects…that are close to each other,” said Mr Soelistyo. One of the three vessels was Singapore’s Navy ship RSS Persistence, he added.

The transport ministry said on Friday night that the AirAsia plane was travelling at a flight time that had not been cleared by officials. It was not permitted to fly the Surabaya-Singapore route on Sundays.

“It violated the route permit given, the schedule given, that’s the problem,” director-general of air transport Djoko Murjatmodjo said.

He added that AirAsia’s permit for the route has been frozen until investigations are completed.

http://static.movideo.com/flash/movideo_player.swf

Sea conditions remain rough on Saturday

The sea in the search area was still rough on Saturday, with waves reaching a height of 4m.

Malaysia’s Chief of Navy Abdul Aziz Jaafar said in a tweet that visibility was about 8 nautical miles with wind speed of 20-30 knots. He said a search area with a dimension of 57 by 10 nautical miles had been established.

Small pieces of the aircraft and other debris have been found so far, but there has been no sign of the crucial voice and flight data recorders – the so-called black boxes that investigators hope will unravel the sequence of events in the cockpit during the doomed jet’s final minutes.

Indonesia said on Friday that recovery teams recovered 30 bodies, including some strapped in their seats, and spotted debris resembling parts of the tail.

The navy picked up at least five bodies wearing seat belts and found the debris by sonar, Colonel Yayan Sofiyan, commander of the warship Bung Tomo, told MetroTV.

“Our team found what we suspect is a fraction of the aircraft tail,” The colonel said on Friday. “It was at the bottom of the sea, at 29 meters deep.”

Oil spill was also found in the red zone which has been given priority in the search. The zone is close to Kumai Bay.

Of the 30 bodies recovered, four have been identified. Police said three Indonesians, including stewardess Khairunnisa Haidar, passengers Grayson Herbert Linaksita and Kevin Alexander Soetjipto, were identified based on their fingerprints and medical records.

International experts from France, Singapore and Indonesia equipped with sophisticated acoustic detection gear joined the teams at the suspected crash site off Borneo, bolstering the search for the Airbus A320-200’s black box flight recorders.

But strong wind and heavy seas hindered divers’ search for the fuselage of the plane, which went down on Sunday en route from Indonesia’s second-biggest city Surabaya to Singapore with 162 people on board. No survivors have been found.

The plane had gone missing on Dec 28, 2014, and debris were found three days later in the waters south of Kalimantan region.

Given that the plane crashed in shallow seas, experts say finding the boxes should not be difficult if the beacons, with a range of 2,000 to 3,000 metres, are working.

Toos Sanitiyoso, an air safety investigator with the National Committee for Transportation Safety, said he hoped the black box flight data and voice recorders could be found within a week, suggesting there was still doubt over the plane’s location.

“The main thing is to find the main area of the wreckage and then the black box,” he told reporters.  None of the tell-tale black box “pings” had been detected, he said.

Investigators are working on a theory that the plane went into a stall as it climbed steeply to avoid a storm about 40 minutes into the flight. Experts also said that initial information point ot the possibility that the aircraft may have managed to land on sea but could have been overcome by high seas, AFP reported.

AirAsia QZ8501 search areas

Was the plane flying too slowly, too steeply?

The plane disappeared on Sunday morning after it failed to get permission to fly higher to avoid bad weather because of heavy air traffic. It was flying from Surabaya to Singapore with 162 people on board.

The plane was travelling at 32,000 feet and had asked to fly at 38,000 feet. When air traffic controllers granted permission for a rise to 34,000 feet a few minutes later, they received no response.

Radar data being examined by investigators appeared to show that the Airbus A320 made an “unbelievably” steep climb before it crashed, possibly pushing it beyond the aircraft’s limits, a source familiar with the probe’s initial findings said on Wednesday.

The data was transmitted before the aircraft disappeared from the screens of air traffic controllers in Jakarta on Sunday, added the source, who declined to be identified. “So far, the numbers taken by the radar are unbelievably high. This rate of climb is very high, too high. It appears to be beyond the performance envelope of the aircraft,” he said.

Online discussion among pilots has centred on unconfirmed secondary radar data from Malaysia that suggested the aircraft was climbing at a speed of 353 knots, about 100 knots too slow, and that it might have stalled.

Investigators are focusing initially on whether the crew took too long to request permission to climb, or could have ascended on their own initiative earlier, said a source close to the inquiry, adding that poor weather could have played a part as well.

A Qantas pilot with 25 years of experience flying in the region said the discovery of the debris field relatively close to the last known radar plot of the plane pointed to an aerodynamic stall. One possibility is that the plane’s instruments iced up, giving the pilots inaccurate readings.

The Indonesian captain, a former air force fighter pilot, had 6,100 flying hours under his belt and the plane last underwent maintenance in mid-November, said the airline, which is 49 per cent owned by Malaysia-based budget carrier AirAsia.

AirAsia QZ8501 debris

Did the aircraft manage to ditch?

The Airbus A320-200 had disappeared from radar over the Java Sea during a storm, but it failed to send the transmissions normally emitted when a plane crashes or is submerged.

Experts say this suggests the experienced former air force pilot, Captain Iriyanto, conducted an emergency water landing which did not have a destructive impact.

“The emergency locator transmitter (ELT) would work on impact, be that land, sea or the sides of a mountain, and my analysis is it didn’t work because there was no major impact during landing,” said Dudi Sudibyo, a senior editor of aviation magazine Angkasa.  “The pilot managed to land it on the sea’s surface,” he added.

“The conclusions I have come to so far are that the plane did not blow up mid-air, and it did not suffer an impact when it hit a surface, because if it did so then the bodies would not be intact,” Chappy Hakim, a former air force commander, told AFP.

The fuselage is also thought to be largely intact after aerial searchers saw a “shadow” on the seabed, where operations are now being focused.  An emergency exit door and an inflatable slide were among the first items recovered by the search team, suggesting the first passengers may have started the evacuation process once the plane landed on water.

Former transport minister Jusman Syafii Djamal was convinced the discovery of the floating exit door meant “someone had opened it”.  Passengers may have been waiting for a flight attendant to inflate a life raft when a high wave hit the nose and sank the plane, Djamal added.  “High waves may have hit the plane, the nose, and sunk the plane.”

Flight safety standards require that all passengers can be evacuated from a plane in 90 seconds.  The cause and more details of the crash will remain unclear until investigators find the all-important black boxes, which will answer questions such as why the underwater locator beacon did not work.

Three airline disasters involving Malaysian-affiliated carriers in less than a year have dented confidence in the country’s aviation industry and spooked travellers.

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 went missing in March on a trip from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 passengers and crew and has not been found. On July 17, the same airline’s Flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board.

http://static.movideo.com/flash/movideo_player.swf

Indonesia AirAsia is a joint venture 49 per cent owned by Malaysia-based AirAsia group, which is run by feisty entrepreneur Tony Fernandes.

The group counts affiliates in Thailand, the Philippines and India, and had not suffered a crash since its Malaysian budget operations began in 2002.

Bodies Found In AirAsia Missing Plane Search

Indonesian television shows bodies floating in the water as search teams report seeing a plane-shaped shadow on the sea bed.

11:58, UK, Tuesday 30 December 2014

Video: AirAsia Search: Bodies Spotted

At least 40 bodies and wreckage including a plane door and oxygen tanks have been recovered in the search for missing AirAsia Flight QZ8501.

The bodies – which were not wearing life jackets – have been brought on board a navy ship, said Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue Director SB Supriyadi.

Local television broadcast pictures of the bodies floating in the sea.

AirAsia flight QZ8501

Search teams have been focussing on an area in the Java Sea

“The warship Bung Tomo has retrieved 40 bodies and the number is growing. They are very busy now,” said a navy spokesman.

They were found in the Java Sea about six miles (10km) from where the plane last communicated with air traffic control.

Search chief SB Supriyadi also said an air force Hercules had “found an object described as a shadow at the bottom of the sea in the form of a plane”.

Objects spotted earlier have also been confirmed as wreckage from the plane and some have been taken away by helicopter for testing.

AirAsia boss Tony Fernandes said he was rushing to the scene and wrote on Twitter: “My heart is filled with sadness for all the families involved in QZ 8501.

“On behalf of AirAsia my condolences to all. Words cannot express how sorry I am.”

The Airbus A320-200 disappeared from radar on Sunday morning, on its way from Surabaya in Indonesia to Singapore.

There were 162 people on board, including one British man, Hull-born Chi Man Choi, and his two-year-old daughter.

The aircraft’s last request – to climb higher to avoid a storm – was turned down.

Minutes later it fell off the radar without giving any distress call.

Geoffrey Thomas, editor of AirlineRatings.com, told Sky News: “We have a radar plot which shows the plane actually climbing through 36,300ft – it wasn’t given permission to do that.

“It also shows that its speed had decayed by 134mph and dropped dramatically to a level where it couldn’t sustain flight.”

Some 30 ships and 21 aircraft from South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and Indonesia have been involved in searching 10,000 nautical miles of ocean.

More here: https://www.facebook.com/GoatysNews/posts/758964697512114

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Badan SAR Nasional

Badan SAR NasionalBadan SAR Nasional:

https://twitter.com/SAR_NASIONAL

http://www.basarnas.go.id/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.