Japan/ West Pacific: Typhoon SANVU 17W 311500Z position 28.1N 142.0E, moving N 07 kt (JTWC) – Updated 31 Aug 2017 1608z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Sanvu 17W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

wp201717_5day SANVU JTWC

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201717_sat SANVU

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 17W (Sanvu) Warning #13
Issued at 31/1500Z

wp1717 JTWC

17W_311200sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANVU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311200Z — NEAR 27.9N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 141.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 28.7N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 29.5N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 31.7N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 22 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 35.8N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 28 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 46.6N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
285 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 142.0E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

jma-logo3

TY 1715 (Sanvu)
Issued at 13:50 UTC, 31 August 2017

1715-00 SANVU JMAJPWARN SANVU

 <Analysis at 14 UTC, 31 August>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N27°50′ (27.8°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 950 km (500 NM)
W 500 km (270 NM)
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N27°55′ (27.9°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 950 km (500 NM)
W 500 km (270 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10′ (28.2°)
E142°55′ (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°35′ (28.6°)
E143°10′ (143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N33°20′ (33.3°)
E146°10′ (146.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°00′ (45.0°)
E150°10′ (150.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SANVU is currently located near 27.9 N 141.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). SANVU is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SANVU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for TS is 85% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Russian Federation
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201717W TSR1

(Image: TSR)

201717W_0 TSR2

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn sanvu

17083121 jma map

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500
WTJP31 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1715 SANVU (1715) 965 HPA
AT 27.9N 141.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 27.8N 142.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 28.5N 143.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=======================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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US(TX/LA/MS/TN): Tropical Depression Harvey 31/0300Z update (NHC FL) – Updated 31 Aug 2017 0920z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.

…..catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week

 

at201709_5day TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

at201709_sat TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

030124_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TD HARVEY

avn_lalo-animated TD HARVEY

030124WPCQPF_sm rain 31

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 31METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 300850

WTNT24 KNHC 310254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 92.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 310857
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-312100-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Depression Harvey is inland over Louisiana.
As Harvey moves farther inland, a ridge will slowly build back
across the Gulf through the remainder of the week before a trough
develops over the western Gulf this weekend. An area of low pressure
could form along this trough over the southwestern Gulf by the
weekend.

$$

GMZ011-312100-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S. Seas
2 ft or less.
.FRI…S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NE to E. Seas 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to 3 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ013-312100-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to NE to E late. Seas
2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ015-312100-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and S to SW 10 to 15 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…W winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S late. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-312100-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ019-312100-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt S of 24N, and E to SE 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.FRI…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt S of 24N, and E 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ021-312100-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E. Seas 3 ft,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

GMZ023-312100-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft
or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt S of 21N W of 95W, and NE to E
10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to NW 5 to 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to W to NW in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to E to SE
late. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ025-312100-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less,
building to 3 to 4 ft late. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

Forecaster GR

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN 28/0600Z nr 30.3N 81.0W Stationary – Published 28 Aug 2017 0808z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN

…DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST…NHC FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South Santee River to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

at201710_5day PTS10 wund

(Image: @wunderground)

at201710_sat PTS10 wund

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

054800_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind PTC10 NHC

000
WTNT35 KNHC 280545
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

…DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.3N 81.0W
ABOUT 185 MI…295 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI…525 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South Santee River to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
30.3 North, longitude 81.0 West. The system is currently stationary.
A slow and erratic motion is forecast through this afternoon,
followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the system will move near the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts today and move along the North Carolina coast
tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the system is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The
cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday.

A wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h) has recently been reported at
NOAA’s Gray’s Reef buoy off the Georgia coast.

Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms show some signs of organization, but the center of
circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the
definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a
tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area tonight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the
next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 PTC10

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0232

WTNT25 KNHC 280232
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017
0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK
* ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 80.8W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 80.8W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 80.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.9N 81.0W…TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.3N 79.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.4N 77.5W…NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.5N 73.8W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 39.9N 64.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT…240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 43.2N 53.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 47.2N 41.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 80.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ China/ Vietnam: Tropical Storm Pakhar 16W 260900Z position nr 18.7N 117.5E, moving WNW 16kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Aug 2017 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Pakhar 16W

#JolinaPh in Philippines

⚠️  Philippines and China beware! Vietnam be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

wp201716_5day Pakhar wund

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201716_sat Pakhar wund

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 16W (Pakhar) Warning #08
Issued at 26/0900Z

wp1617 Pakhar jtwc 26

16W_260600sams 26

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 18.3N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 118.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 19.8N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 21.2N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 21.9N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 22.3N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 22.7N 101.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 117.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z,
270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 26 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PAKHAR is currently located near 18.3 N 118.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). PAKHAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201716W tsr1 26 p

(Image: TSR)

201716W_0 tsr2 26

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

17082615 jma map26

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 260600

WTJP22 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1714 PAKHAR (1714) 994 HPA
AT 18.0N 118.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 20.0N 114.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 21.4N 112.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 23.0N 106.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 22.8N 102.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Severe Tropical Storm Hato 15W 23/1200Z nr 22.7N 115.3E, moving WNW 30 km/h (16 kt) (JMA) – Updated 23 Aug 2017 1332z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Hato 15W downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm by JMA

 

JAPAN MET

1713-00 jma 23

STS 1713 (Hato)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 23 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N22°40′ (22.7°)
E111°00′ (111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 330 km (180 NM)
N 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°20′ (23.3°)
E107°55′ (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°40′ (23.7°)
E104°30′ (104.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

CMA CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0
Typhoon Message
20170823 20:26

National Meteorological Center No.680
Analysis Time: Aug. 23th 12 UTC
Name of TC: HATO
Num. of TC: 1713
Current Location: 22.7°N 110.9°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s(90km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs HATO will moving WNW at speed of 28km/h
Currently on land
Red Warning of Typhoon

23-08-2017Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center issued red warning of typhoon at 6:00 p.m. on August 23.

At 5:00 p.m. today, Typhoon Hato, this year’s 13th typhoon, centered northern parts of the South China Sea (21.3N, 115.2E), about 200 kilometers away from southeastern Zhuhai city, Guangdong province. The maximum wind near the typhoon center hit scale 13 (40m/s).

It is forecasted to move toward northwest at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour with a strengthening force. At noon today, it is predicted to make landfall in Guangdong coast ranging from Zhuhai City to Yangjiang City (40~48 m/s, scale 13~15, typhoon level or severe typhoon level). After that Hato will continue to march toward west with a shrinking strength and slip into Guangxi on the evening of August 23 (30~33 m/s, scale 11~12, severe tropical storm or typhoon level).

Gale forecast: From August 23 to 24, in portions of Taiwan Strait, northern parts of the South China Sea, Qiongzhou Strait, Beibu Gulf, Guangdong coast, southern Fujian coast, eastern and northern Hainan coast, Guangxi coast, southern Guangdong coast, and eastern Guangxi, scale 7~9 gale is forecasted. Pearl River Estuary will be battered by scale 11~13 gale. Furthermore, the sea or land areas on the way of the typhoon center are expected to be hammered by scale 14~15 gale or scale 16~17 gust.

Precipitation forecast: From August 23 to 24, in some certain locations of most of Guangxi, western and southern Guangdong, northern Hainan Island, southern Fujian coast, and western Taiwan, heavy rain or rainstorm is forecasted. Furthermore, portions of southeastern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and northeastern Hainan Island will be exposed to heavy rainstorm or extraordinary rainstorm (250~350 mm). (August 23)

Editor Wu Peng

NW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2017 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon HATO is currently located near 22.2 N 112.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). HATO is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HATO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201715W tsr1 23

(Image: TSR)

201715W_0 tsr2 23

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11/ TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1713 HATO (1713) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 22.7N 111.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.3N 107.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.7N 104.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Gert 17/1500Z nr 43.2N 50.0W, moving ENE 35 knots(NHC FL) – Updated 17 Aug 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE GERT

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

……..GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY……NHC FL

⚠️ Life-threatening surf and
rip currents will continue to affect the NE coastof US and Atlantic Canada through
tonight.

at201708 Hurr Gert wund

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

143921_5day_cone_with_line_and_windNHC

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

…GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…43.2N 50.0W
ABOUT 685 MI…1100 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH…65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 50.0 West. Gert is moving toward
the east-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast
of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

=============================================================================

CANADA

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

8:55 AM ADT Thursday 17 August 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

  • Newfoundland

For Hurricane Gert.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 p.m. NDT.

Hurricane Gert will race across the Southern Grand Banks today with no direct impacts to Canadian land areas. Hurricane force winds are not expected over the Grand Banks.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:30 a.m. NDT.

Location: Near 42.3 North 51.7 West.

About 497 kilometres south-southeast of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: East-northeast at 76 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 972 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A special weather statement highlights the possibility of abnormal variations in the tides.

a. Wind.

Any significant winds from Gert are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Some moisture from Gert will feed into an approaching non-tropical weather system near eastern Newfoundland. This system will reach Newfoundland on Thursday and amounts of 25 to 50 mm are forecast over portions of eastern and northern Newfoundland.

c. Surge/Waves.

Long period swells from Gert will reach 2 to 4 metres along south-facing coastlines of Newfoundland later today, with the highest waves likely along the southern Avalon peninsula. These swells could also lead to dangerous rip currents. Significant wave heights of 3 to 5 metres are expected over the Grand Banks on this afternoon. The highest waves from Gert will remain south of Canadian waters.

In addition, Hurricane Gert may cause a series of rapid changes in water levels in harbours and inlets from the Avalon Peninsula north to Trinity Bay for a couple of hours. The most likely time ranges from late this afternoon into this evening. High tide will be occurring late this afternoon for most areas, so there is a risk for minor flooding near and after high tide.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

The latest track for Gert has it passing over the extreme southern Grand Banks today and transitioning to a very intense mid-latitude storm as it passes east of our forecast waters. Gale to storm force winds are expected over southernmost portions of the Grand Banks, with hurricane force winds remaining just south of the Grand Banks. Gale and Storm warnings are in effect for the southern Grand Banks.

Forecaster(s): Mercer/Murtha/Couturier

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Weather Warnings(link)

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Gert Canada

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

201708N TSR!

(Image: TSR)

201708N_0 TSR2 17

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 nhc

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 150831

WTNT23 KNHC 171433
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 43.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.3N 37.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 51.3N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 52.4N 34.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.2N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

 

 

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150926
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
526 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

Hurricane Gert is centered near 31.8N 72.5W at 15/0900 UTC or
about 375 nm W of Bermuda moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 30N-32N between 70W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 28N-33N between 70W-74W. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde islands associated with a
1012 mb low pressure located near 14N28W. The wave axis extends
from 18N27W to the low to 09N28W and has been moving W at 10 kt.
The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment
limit deep convection. Shallow moisture confined to the vicinity
of the monsoon trough and upper level diffluent wind support
scattered moderate convection SW of the low center from 10N-14N
between 28W-33W. Slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next day or two, but conditions are forecast to become
a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by later in
the week while the system moves westward over the tropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
20N51W to 09N53W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is entering a
region of moderate to strong vertical wind shear and is being
severely affected by extensive Saharan dry air and dust, which is
hindering convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
20N64W to 10N66W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical wind shear and dry air subsidence, which is
hindering deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture observed
in CIRA LPW imagery and upper level diffluent flow ahead of the
wave axis in the N-central Caribbean support isolated showers over
northern Puerto Rico and adjacent waters as well as the Mona
Passage and E Dominican Republic.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 14N28W to 11N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 11N43W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W.
Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are coming off the W
African coast associated with the next tropical wave. The
convection extends from 05N to 11N E of 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 15N between 34W and 46W associated with
a 1012 mb low located near 11N39W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, which along with
dry air subsidence support mainly fair weather conditions.
A broad upper level low is centered just N of the Yucatan
Peninsula, which supports isolated showers there and in the
Yucatan Channel. Diffluent flow in the NW periphery of the low
support similar shower activity off the SE coast of Louisiana and
Mississippi. Winds are gentle to moderate and from the S-SE in the
western half of the basin and light variable elsewhere. The ridge
will remain in place across the Gulf waters the next couple of
days. A surface trough will develop each evening across the
Yucatan Peninsula shifting W to the Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours. Locally higher winds can be expected west of the
trough axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean. Please
see section above. The tropical wave will continue to propagate
westward over Puerto Rico this morning, then will move over
central Caribbean waters tonight. Isolated showers are occurring
ahead of the wave axis over northern Puerto Rico and adjacent
waters, the Mona Passage and E Dominican Republic. This convection
is mainly due to shallow moisture and a diffluent wind environment
aloft associated with an upper level low over central Atlc waters.
A broad upper level low centered just N of the Yucatan Peninsula
support isolated showers in the Yucatan Channel extending to NW
Caribbean waters N of 17N W of 80W. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are over Belize and northern Guatemala associated with the
passage of a tropical wave with axis currently moving across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mexico. Otherwise, fresh to near gale force
winds are in the south-central basin forecast to continue through
Thursday.

…HISPANIOLA…

An upper level low over the central Atlc will drift WSW to the north
and across the Island over the next couple of days. This low aloft
along with the passage of a tropical wave will support scattered
to isolated showers over the Island and adjacent waters through
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Scattered showers and tstms are N of 28N between 70W and 74W associated
with the rainbands of Hurricane Gert centered north of the area.
See Special features for further details. Otherwise, the
remainder basin generally N of 20N is under the influence of the
Azores high, which supports fair weather. For information about
tropical waves, see section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK (Cornwall): Holidaymaker dies after sea rescue at Newquay, 2 others in hospital – Published 15 Aug 2017 1455z (GMT/UTC)

A 27-year-old man has died after being rescued from the sea at Newquay last night [15 August 2017].

He was among a group of three males who got into difficulty after being caught in a rip tide and swept out to sea at Crantock Beach.

The HM Coastguard Search and Rescue helicopter (Rescue 924) along with two RNLI Lifeboats (@NewquayRNLI ) and the Coastguard Rescue Team from Newquay (@NewquayCRT ), police and ambulance, were sent to the incident around 7.30pm.

The three, who were holidaying in the area, were rescued from the water by two local surfers and then airlifted to Treliske Hospital by the Coastguard helicopter.

The 27-year-old man was pronounced deceased a short time later. His next of kin have been informed. The death is not being treated as suspicious and police will be carrying out enquiries on behalf of the coroner.

The other two swimmers, aged 17 and 18, remain at Treliske Hospital but are not believed to be seriously injured.

Only 5 days ago, there was a mass rescue at Crantock Beach, RNLI lifeguards had to rescue multiple body boarders from a strong current. Two lifeguards were deployed on rescue boards and performed 11 rescues and 15 assists in total. Click here for more details from RNLI

 

  • Crantock beach is patrolled by RNLI lifeguards between 10am-6pm until 1 October.
  • Wherever possible, you should swim at a lifeguarded beach. Always read and obey the safety signs, usually found at the entrance to the beach. This will help you avoid potential hazards on the beach and identify the safest areas for swimming.
  • In 2013 there were 738 RNLI lifeguard incidents involving body boarders. Between 2006 and 2011 53% of people rescued from rip currents at RNLI lifeguarded beaches were bodyboarding.

Rip current advice issued after tourist swept out to sea dies (link to video)

 

 

West Pacific: Typhoon Banyan 14W 151500Z position 29.3N 162.6E, moving N 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Aug 2017 1350z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Banyan 14W

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 14W (Banyan) Warning #11
Issued at 13/1500Z

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 28.5N 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 162.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 31.5N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 35.0N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 29 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 39.2N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 44.0N 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 162.6E.
TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

TY 1712 (Banyan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E162°10′ (162.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°10′ (31.2°)
E162°55′ (162.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°40′ (34.7°)
E166°05′ (166.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 August>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N43°00′ (43.0°)
E177°30′ (177.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

Units:
1 kt (knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1 nm (nautical mile) = 1.852 km

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 151200

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1712 BANYAN (1712) 975 HPA
AT 28.3N 162.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 31.2N 162.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 34.7N 166.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 43.0N 177.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ethiopia: Two million animals have been lost to a “devastating” drought, says UNFAO – Published 13 Aug 2017 1245z (GMT/UTC)

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has said that two million animals have been lost to a “devastating” drought in Ethiopia.

Healthy animals = elimination of hunger = healthy people = sustainable food production. – FAO

The UN agriculture agency said that the drought had devastated herders’ livelihoods as it exhausted pastures and water sources.

(Image: UNFAO)

It said the current food and nutrition crisis was significantly aggravated by the severe blow to pastoral livelihoods. “For livestock-dependent families, the animals can literally mean the difference between life and death – especially for children, pregnant and nursing mothers, for whom milk is a crucial source of nutrition.

“With up to two million animals lost so far, FAO is focusing on providing emergency livestock support to the most vulnerable pastoralist communities through animal vaccination and treatment, supplementary feed and water, rehabilitating water points, and supporting fodder and feed production”. FAO stressed that supporting the herders to get back on their feet and prevent further livestock losses was crucial in the Horn of Africa country, where hunger had been on the rise. “The drought has led to a significant number of animals dying or falling ill, particularly in the southern and south-eastern regions of the country, as other areas recover from previous seasons’ El Niño-induced drought,” the UN agency warned. It also said that drought-hit pastoralists were facing reduced milk production, rising malnutrition, and had limited income-earning capacity and severely constrained access to food. Abdoul Bah, FAO deputy representative in Ethiopia, said “some 8.5 million people – one in 12 people – are now suffering from hunger; of these, 3.3 million people live in Somali Region. “It is crucial to provide this support between now and October – when rains are due – to begin the recovery process and prevent further losses of animals. If we don’t act now, hunger and malnutrition will only get worse among pastoral communities.” According to Bah, by providing supplementary feed and water for livestock, while simultaneously supporting fodder production, FAO seeks to protect core breeding animals and enable drought-hit families to rebuild their livelihoods. In addition to FAO-supported destocking and cash-for-work programmes to provide cash for families, he said animal health campaigns would be reinforced to protect animals, particularly before the rain sets in – when they are at their weakest and more susceptible to parasites or infectious diseases. Bah said FAO urgently required $20 million between August and December to come to the aid of Ethiopia’s farmers and herders. “FAO has already assisted almost 500,000 drought-hit people in 2017 through a mix of livestock feed provision, de-stocking and animal health interventions,” he said. The support was courtesy of the Ethiopia humanitarian fund, Switzerland, Spain and Sweden through FAO’s special fund for emergency and rehabilitation activities, the UN central emergency response fund, as well as FAO’s own early warning early action (EWEA) fund and technical cooperation programme.

RSOE August 12 2017 01:23 PM (UTC).

Urgent support is needed in drought-stricken Ethiopia – @FAOemergencies
http://www.fao.org/emergencies/fao-in-action/stories/stories-detail/en/c/1029234/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: Overdue diver found by Newquay Coastguard helicopter after search op in Cornwall – Published 09 Aug 2017 1525z (GMT/UTC)

An overdue diver has been located safe and well by the UK Coastguard search and rescue helicopter based at Newquay after a large search operation was launched earlier today.

R924 cropped

Rescue 924 (based at Newquay) on another tasking.

Just after 1pm today (9 August) UK Coastguard received a VHF Radio broadcast on Channel 16 – the VHF distress frequency – from the diving vessel reporting that the diver was 15 minutes overdue.

The diver, who was with a group of seven other divers, was last seen 1nm north of Mannacles, Cornwall.

An extensive search and rescue operation was launched involving Porthoustock and Mullion Coastguard Rescue Teams, Falmouth and Lizard  RNLI Lifeboats and the UK Coastguard search and rescue helicopter based at Newquay.  Devon and Cornwall Police were also informed.

The missing diver was located safe and well by the Coastguard helicopter just after 2pm on the shoreline.  Despite being exhausted, he required no medical treatment and has been airlifted to Porthoustock.

Lee Duncan,  Duty Controller for the UK Coastguard said:  ‘We commend the actions of the crew of the diving vessel who called us when the diver was overdue.  The diving vessel had all the right equipment on board including a VHF Radio in case anything went wrong – which is what they used in this case to raise the alarm with us.  Thankfully, the UK Coastguard helicopter was able to locate the missing diver on the shoreline and take his safety.  It was very clear that the dive vessel had a plan in place if anything should go wrong and they did exactly the right thing to contact the Coastguard quickly so we could task our Coastguard, the RNLI Lifeboats and our Coastguard helicopter to assist.

‘Remember if you’re planning on diving in the sea, make sure you are adequately qualified and experienced for the dive that you plan to undertake, keeping a close eye on weather and sea conditions, and making your own fitness a top priority for safe diving.

‘Familiarise yourself with new or different gear before planning deep dives and to always dive within your limits. In an emergency contact the Coastguard immediately.’ – Hm Coastguard

Mexico: Tropical Storm Franklin – ⚠️ Hurricane Warning for MX coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL) – Published 09 Aug 2017 1040z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco (NHC FL)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen (NHC FL)
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo (NHC FL)

Traducción al español (haga clic aquí)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

…FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN is currently located near 20.4 N 92.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). FRANKLIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Coatzacoalcos (18.2 N, 94.4 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

Landfall #2 Coming Up: Franklin Enters Bay of Campeche (Category 6 website)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0837

WTNT22 KNHC 090837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF RIO PANUCO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO BARRA DEL TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ Korea: Typhoon Noru 07W 031600Z nr 28.3°N 132.8°E, moving WNW 10 km/h 6kt(JMA) – Updated 03 Aug 2017 1720z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Noru 07W

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Japan BEWARE!!   Korea BE AWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 34 FEET – JTWC

wp201707_5day Noru wund 03 aug

(Image: @wunderground)

wp201707_sat_anim noru wund sat 03 .gif

1705-00 NURU JMA 03a

1705-00 NURU JMA 03

WARN 03

Himawari 8 near real time (link)

TY 1705 (Noru)
Issued at 16:40 UTC, 3 August 2017

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 3 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E132°50′ (132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Estimate for 17 UTC, 3 August>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20′ (28.3°)
E132°40′ (132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E131°30′ (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°40′ (28.7°)
E130°25′ (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N29°20′ (29.3°)
E129°25′ (129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′ (31.3°)
E130°00′ (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 07W (Noru) Warning #56
Issued at 03/1500Z

wp0717 JTWC 03

07W_031200sair 03

IR Sat

 

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 056
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 28.3N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 133.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 28.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 29.1N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 29.6N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 30.4N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 32.4N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 36.3N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 40.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 132.9E.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 34
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Aug, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NORU is currently located near 28.3 N 133.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). NORU is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NORU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201707W 03 TSR1

(Image: TSR)

201707W_0 03 TSR2

(Image: TSR)

Other

Typhoon Noru poses a growing threat to southern Japan – Category 6

“Residents of Japan’s southern islands need to keep a close eye on Typhoon Noru. Noru was a strong Category 2 storm as of 12Z Tuesday, with top sustained winds (1-minute) of 90 knots (105 mph) as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). After hurtling to Category 5 intensity on Sunday, the typhoon weakened gradually on Monday as it lost the benefit of a high-altitude outflow channel. However, Noru is expected to re-intensify as it moves slowly northwest toward Japan, where it will encounter slightly warmer waters (above 30°C or 86°F), and into a region with more favorable upper-level winds.

Noru’s northwest track is expected to bend slightly westward as it moves around a compact upper-level high parked near South Korea and the Sea of Japan. This is good news for Japan’s key population centers, including Tokyo, as it would take the typhoon well to their southwest. The large southern island of Kyushu, and the smaller archipelago of the Ryukyu Islands, may not be so lucky. By this weekend, the JTWC track brings Noru toward the west coast of Kyushu as a Category 3 storm. Such a track would put Kyushu on the more dangerous right-hand side of the typhoon. The official three-day outlook from the Japan Meteorological Agency angles Noru more toward the west over the next three days, which would bring the strongest impacts into the more sparsely populated Ryukyu Islands. A crucial question is how quickly the small upper high to the north of Noru breaks down, which is very difficult to predict at this point. The cone of uncertainty for Noru is, in reality, larger than is currently being depicted, given the higher-than-usual uncertainties in the evolution of the steering flow for the typhoon.

For what it’s worth, the operational runs of both the European and GFS models re-intensify Noru into a fearsome super typhoon. The 0Z Tuesday run of the Euro model took Noru on a track similar to the JTWC forecast, looping just to the west of Kyushu, while the 0Z and 6Z Tuesday runs of the GFS moved Noru on a slower, more northward track that would affect Kyushu as well as parts of central Japan. Both models deepened Noru below 900 mb by this weekend, which would imply the possibility of a Category 5 supertyphoon, but these values are very likely unrealistic. This may be a good example of the current tendency of global models to over-deepen strong tropical cyclones at subtropical latitudes (roughly north of 25°N). Until recent years, the global models featured resolution that was too coarse to replicate the lowest pressures at the heart of strong tropical cyclones. Today, the upgraded, higher-resolution models can produce very low surface pressures more readily, but they do not fully account for the ocean-atmosphere interaction across subtropical regions. At these latitudes, late-summer ocean temperatures can be very warm over a very shallow layer that is quickly disrupted by a strong hurricane or typhoon. (Thanks to Julian Heming, UK Met Office, for this background.) We should look at the HWRF model, which is our best intensity model, for guidance on how strong Noru might get. The 06Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model rebuilds Noru to Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds, and predicts a track that would take the storm well west of Kyushu.” – Dr. Jeff Masters & Bob Henson atCategory 6

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn 03a

(Image: JMA)

jma map 03

(Image: JMA)

 

(Image: JMA)

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 021200

WTJP31 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1705 NORU (1705) 950 HPA
AT 28.3N 133.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 28.5N 131.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 28.7N 130.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.