Mississippi town evacuated after train derailment spills flammable chemicals

Alternative News & Disaster News

Dozens of families were forced from their southeastern Mississippi homes Friday after a train derailed, tipping over cars carrying fuel oil and methanol and causing officials to grow concerned about another potentially deadly chemical spill.

The Mississippi Department of Motor Vehicles announced that the train, which was traveling from Jackson, Miss. To Mobile, Ala., ran off the tracks at 9 A.M. local time (10 A.M. EST) and that no one was hurt in the incident outside New Augusta.

The approximately 50 people living within a half-mile radius of the accident were evacuated, though, because the train was hauling an ethanol-based product that spilled. Surrounding highways were also shutdown as a precaution because of ethanol’s high flammability. Between 3,000 and 4,000 gallons were spilled, according to local estimates.

“Dozens of families were forced from their southeastern Mississippi homes Friday after a train derailed, tipping over cars carrying fuel oil and methanol…

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Philippines: Tropical Depression KAJIKI/BASYANG 011200Z nr 11.0N 118.0E, moving W at 20 knots. Now over West Philippine Sea- 010214 1342z

Tropical Depression KAJIKI /BASYANG

Philippines:

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

BASYANG HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA.

(PAGASA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

TD a

TD
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 1 February 2014

<Analyses at 01/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N1100′(11.0)
E11800′(118.0)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa

PAGASA-DOSTPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST) Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER NINE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASYANG (KAJIKI)
ISSUED AT 5:00 PM, 01 FEBRUARY 2014

BASYANG HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA.

Location of eye/center:At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression BASYANG was estimated based on all available data at 88 km Southwest of Coron, Palawan (11.6N, 119.5E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement:Forecast to move West at 30 kph

Forecast Position:Tropical Depression BASYANG is expected to be at 764 km West of Coron, Palawan by tomorrow afternoon or outside the PAR.

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

Northern Palawan incl. Calamian Group of Islands, Oriental Mindoro and Occidental Mindoro

Potential Impacts of the Winds
Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is risky
Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 10 mm per hour (moderate heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of Luzon and southern seaboard of Southern Luzon due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.
The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

For more information and queries, Please call at Telephone Numbers 927-1335 And 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9214.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 010900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z NEAR 11.8N 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 290 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 121.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z 12.9N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z 13.9N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 14.9N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 15.3N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM
SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z,
012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

Westernpacificweather.com

Basyang now affecting Northern Part of Palawan

Posted on February 1, 2014

Here is our Basyang Summary

You can download it here:

Baysang Phil Sum


As Basyang traverse Visayas Region it is now currently affecting the last part of its path in the Philippines which is Palawan Province of Luzon Region. The storm has been downgraded by PAGASA into a Tropical Depression and still a Tropical Storm for JMA. Signal No.1 still up in Mindoro Provinces and Palawan as of 5:00 PM today.

With this development Wind Advisory will be still held for Palawan Area and all other Warnings/ Watches/ Advisory are now lowered.

** Remember to refer to your Official Weather Agency!

Westpacwx

More than 18,000 in evacuation centers

Rappler.com
Posted on 02/01/2014 10:42 AM |Updated 02/01/2014 11:55 AM

BASYANG. A handout satellite image made available by the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Adminstration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki) approaching the Philippines, Jan 31, 2014. File photo from NOAA/EPABASYANG. A handout satellite image made available by the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Adminstration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki) approaching the Philippines, Jan 31, 2014. File photo from NOAA/EPA

“MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said on Saturday, February 1, that 3,698 families or 18,518 persons were displaced by Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki).

Evacuees fled to 74 evacuation centers in Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, and the Caraga region, the agency said in its Saturday morning report.

Basyang weakened into a tropical depression as of 11 am Saturday, state weather bureau PAGASA said, with only 10 remaining areas under storm signal no. 1.

The Department of Social Welfare and Development already prepositioned P104.30 million for emergency relief resources, which include standby funds (P54.91 million), 48,044 famliy food packs (P11.67 million), and other food and non-food items (P37.72 million).

The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) also suspended sea trips in all ports in Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental and Siquijor. A total of 9,541 passengers were reportedly stranded.

Meanwhile, at least 45 flights have been cancelled since Friday evening, January 31. (READ: Cancelled flights: Saturday, February 1)

Tent cities, hospitals

In Cebu, Saturday classes in all levels have been suspended. The provincial DRRMC said residents living in the tent city at South Road Properties evacuated at the Department of Engineering and Public Works building.

The tent city houses survivors of Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) who fled Tacoban and other parts of Eastern Visayas. The worlds most powerful typhoon flattened entire towns and cities, and left million homeless when it hit the Visayas on Nov 8, 2013.

Pre-emptive evacuations before Basyang were also done for at least 550 families in Cebu.

In Bohol’s Loon Hospital, 2 ambulances, 7 medics and 1 generator set were sent to assist in the evacuation of patients who are currently staying in tent hospitals.

Loon Hospital is one of the 14 hospitals in the province that were damaged by the 7.2-magnitude earthquake last October 2013. (READ: New hospitals to rise in Bohol after quake)

The tropical depression is expected to to be either 521 km northwest of Puerto Princesa City or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Sunday morning.” Jee Geronimo/Rappler.com

MARITIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING
WTPH RPMM 301200
TTT WARNING 02

AT 1200 30 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED AT ONE ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METER PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 311200 ZERO NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AT 011200 ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX AND AT 021200 ONE TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1402 KAJIKI (1402) 1002 HPA
AT 11.2N 120.3E SULU SEA MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 12.2N 117.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 13.4N 115.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 14.9N 112.2E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Australia: Tropical Cyclone 11P DYLAN 301500Z nr 19.1S 147.9E, moving S at 6 knots – expected to cross coast between Ayr & Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise – 300114 1515z

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

256 km Townsville (Hervey Range) Radar Loop

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

 

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Issued at 11:05 pm EST Thursday 30 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 18.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

 

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone, extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
– Boats and outside property should be secured.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Name:Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 30 2 18.9S 148.2E 45
+6hr 4 am January 31 2 19.6S 147.8E 55
+12hr 10 am January 31 1 20.4S 147.1E 75
+18hr 4 pm January 31 tropical low 21.0S 146.2E 95
+24hr 10 pm January 31 tropical low 21.7S 145.3E 110
+36hr 10 am February 1 tropical low 22.6S 143.2E 150
+48hr 10 pm February 1 tropical low 23.1S 141.1E 195
+60hr 10 am February 2 tropical low 23.7S 138.4E 240
+72hr 10 pm February 2 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

 

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell and St Lawrence and
adjacent inland areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 11:08 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be 125
kilometres north of Bowen and 155 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on
Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell
and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday
morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas
near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and
adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast
and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea
is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with
damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high
tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone,
extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the
Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
– Boats and outside property should be secured.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near…… 18.9 degrees South 148.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 2
.Central pressure……… 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday 31 January.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1114.gif

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 18.8S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 148.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 20.0S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 21.0S 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK THAT HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM
TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF, AUSTRALIA, WHICH
SHOWED PERSISTENT 58 KNOT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED JUST TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. TC DYLAN IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE
OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY THE LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm DYLAN (11P) currently located near 18.8 S 148.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1312UTC 30 JANUARY 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Dylan was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal nine south (18.9S)
longitude one hundred and forty eight decimal two east (148.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within 220 nautical miles in
southeastern quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within
220 nautical miles in SE quadrant. Very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 31 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.4 south 147.1 east over
land
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 31 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 21.7 south 145.3 east over
land
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 30 January 2014.

WEATHER BRISBANE

 

Mozambique: Low Pressure Area 91S 281400Z 15.4S 41.6E, moving WSW at 10 Knots. High chance of significant Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs (JTWC) – 280114 1945z

Invest 91S

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (RSMC LA REUNION)

(Image: wunderground.com) South Indian Ocean IR (Click image for source)

ZCZC 487
WTIO30 FMEE 281331 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9
2.A POSITION 2014/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/29 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/29 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/01/30 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/01/30 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2014/01/31 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/01/31 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.0
——————————————————-
CORRECTIVE ISSUED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN ERROR IN THE DVORAK TREND CODING – SECTION 3.A
——————————————————-
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKEN ALOFT WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND DEEP CONVECT
IVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE 0700Z.
0922Z AMRS2 ET 1010Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE.
DUE TO A LACK OF POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THIS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS MAINLY SUSTAINED EQUATOR
WARD BY THE MONSOON FLOW.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A SOUTH-WESTWARDS EXPECTED TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS LEAD TIME, PROXIMIT
Y OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE SHOULD LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNIN
G.
WEDNESDAY LATE, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN.
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DEEPEN THIS LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT OR MEDIUM RANGE AND THE ENS
EMBLE FORECAST OF ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY-MORE PROBABILITY FOR A GENESIS OF A TROPICAL STORM.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
NNNN

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9114.gif

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS21 PGTW 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 42.4E TO 19.2S 38.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 281238Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291430Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA.gov91S (Southern Indian Ocean)
Jan. 28, 2014
System 91S
(NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST and saw some of the thunderstorms had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C (purple).
Image Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen)

NASA Spots Developing Tropical System Affecting Mozambique’s Nampala ProvinceNASA’s Aqua satellite captured infrared data on a developing area of tropical low pressure known as System 91S that was brushing the Nampala Province of Mozambique on January 28.

Nampula is a province in northern Mozambique and its eastern coast runs along the Mozambique Channel of the Southern Indian Ocean. When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument known as AIRS captured infrared data on the clouds associated with System 91S.

AIRS showed some of the thunderstorms surrounding the low-level center of circulation had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C, a threshold that indicates strong storms and potentially heavy rainmakers. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that animated multi-spectral satellite imagery showed that the low-level center was consolidating and that there were bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the center – a sign of strengthening.

System 91S was centered near 15.4 south and 41.6 east, about 810 nautical miles northeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Maximum sustained winds are near the threshold for depression status, currently as high as 30 knots. The low is over warm enough waters to support further development.

At 11 a.m. EST on January 28, Nacala, Mozambique, located on coastal Nampula, was reporting drizzle from the fringes of System 91S with thunderstorms expected at night and on January 29.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center give System 91S a high chance for becoming a tropical depression in the next day as it tracks to the southwest in the Mozambique Channel.

Text credit:ツ Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

MARITIME

ZCZC 093
WTIO24 FMEE 281226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30
KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=
NNNN

Russia: Winter Olympics 2014 – No gay people in Sochi says mayor – 270114 1430z

BBC

Sochi 2014: No gay people in city, says mayor

Sochi winter olympics

The mayor of Sochi, host of the Winter Olympics, has said there are no gay people in the city.

Anatoly Pakhomov said homosexuals were welcome at the Games – as long as they “respect Russian law” and “don’t impose their habits on others”.

Opposition leader Boris Nemtsov said there were several gay bars in Sochi.

In June 2013, Russia passed a law banning the promotion of “non-traditional” sexuality to under-18s – widely seen as an attack on gay rights.

The controversial new law made providing information on homosexuality to under-18s a crime, punishable by a fine.

Critics say its loose interpretation effectively stops gay rights protests in Russia.

“As far as I know there are several gay clubs in Sochi… how do they survive? Why they are not bankrupt? ”

Boris Nemtsov Opposition leader

Anatoly Pakhomov, a member of President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, told Panorama that gay people would be welcome at the Games.

“Our hospitality will be extended to everyone who respects the laws of the Russian Federation and doesn’t impose their habits on others”, he said.

But when asked whether gay people had to hide their sexuality in Sochi, the Mayor said: “No, we just say that it is your business, it’s your life. But it’s not accepted here in the Caucasus where we live. We do not have them in our city.”

When challenged, the mayor admitted that he was not certain there were no gay people in Sochi: “I am not sure, but I don’t bloody know them.”

BBC Panorama reporter John Sweeney visited a gay bar in Sochi the night before he interviewed the mayor.

Most people did not want to be filmed and those that did were cautious about what they said.

Drag queen Madame Zhu-Zha said there was a gay community in the city and in other areas of Russia.

“There are very many clubs for gay people in Moscow – in Sochi we have two gay clubs as well. In some places there’s serious prejudice against gay people. In other places it’s not as bad.”

The Sochi 2014 organising committee told BBC Panorama it was working hard to ensure the Games will be remembered for their diversity.

Boris Nemtsov, former Deputy Prime Minister and now a leader of the opposition, said the mayor’s claim was laughable.

“As far as I know there are several gay clubs in Sochi.

“How do they survive? Why they are not bankrupt?”

Last week, President Vladimir Putin said homosexuals would be welcome in Sochi for the Olympics but said, “just leave the children alone”.

“We don’t have a ban on non-traditional sexual relations,” he said. “We have a ban on the propaganda of homosexuality and paedophilia.”

Panorama: Putin’s Games, BBC One, Monday 27 January at 20:30 GMT and then available in the UK on the BBC iPlayer.

(Video credit:  özgür demirt Published on Jan 27, 2014)

===========================

Russian PM Medvedev on gay rights

(Video credit: Impartial News Center Published on Jan 26, 2014)

CNN’s Christiane Amanpour interviews Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev

‘Welcome’ but warned – Russia’s Putin cautions gay visitors to Sochi

(Video credit: euronews (in English) Published on Jan 18, 2014)

“Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has reiterated earlier statements that gay visitors are welcome at the Games.

At a meeting with a group of young Sochi volunteers, Putin said, “We are not banning anything. We are not rounding up anyone. We have no criminal punishment for such relations, unlike many other countries.”

The Russian President, however, was also keen to stress the country’s ban on promoting homosexuality amongst minors.

“So one can feel relaxed and at ease, but please leave children in peace,” Putin continued.” – Euronews

Putin on anti gay law – BBC News

(Video credit: TvProgramss 21 January 2014)

Should athetes boycott Sochi?

Team GB Refuses Sochi Boycott

(Video credit: TheNetFrancesco Published on Aug 9, 2013)

Stephen Fry: Gay solidarity needed at Russian winter Olympics

(Video credit:  The Telegraph)

Peter Tatchell on the petition to boycott the Winter Olympics in Russia

(Video credit: Kasia Madera Published on Aug 9, 2013)

Gay Rights campaigner Peter Tatchell talks about the petition to boycott the Winter Olympics in Russia because of new anti-gay laws.

This is the incident back in 2007 to which Peter Tatchell refers….

(Video credit: thx1138mindlock Uploaded on Feb 22, 2010 Moscow, 2007)

Gay rights activist Peter Tatchell visciously punched in the face, kicked then arrested. Homophobic assailant walks free.

Richard Fairbrass (Bi-Sexual) punched in the face.

30 members of European Parliament also arrested.

Should the world boycott the Sochi Olympics in defense of gay rights?- Russia Today

(Video credit: Newsnation6 Published on Aug 9, 2013)

British actor Steven Fry has sparked a fierce debate, asking the International Olympic Committee to move the upcoming Winter Games from Sochi to Vancouver. He even compared Russia’s treatment of homosexuals to Nazi Germany. Was he right?

The subject of Fry’s ire is a controversial law passed in June, which forbids the “promotion of non-traditional relations among minors.” The terms “non-traditional” and “promotion” are open to wide interpretation, with many gay activists in Russia calling the law a potential blanket ban on any manifestations. They also say that police have idly stood by as attacks on homosexuals multiplied on the back of the new legislation.

While the first Olympic boycott dates back to 1936, when over 20 countries withdrew in protest against Nazism, the phenomenon reached its peak in the 1970s and 80s — when four Olympic Games in a row had absentees. The 1980 Moscow Games and the 1984 Los Angeles Games saw rival Socialist and Western blocks withdraw en-masse.

In recent weeks, the International Olympic Committee has negotiated with Russia’s Olympic organizers, saying that it received “assurances” that the law would be suspended for the duration of the Games. Russian officials have produced conflicting statements in response, and the situation remains uncertain.” – Russia Today

Gays face hatred attacks in Russia

(Video credit: CNN NEWS INTERNATIONAL)

The terrifying reality of life under Russia’s anti-gay laws

(Video credit: Journeyman Pictures)

France: The work of the PGHM Mont Blanc French Mountain Rescue (Videos in French) Le travail du sauvetage en montagne PGHM Mont Blanc français (VidĂ©os en français) – 220114 1643

Found on Goaty’s News incoming Facebook feed today….

Alpine Exposures- Jon Griffith Photography:

“An incredibly interesting insight in to the workings of the PGHM with fantastic footage from real rescues. It gives you a real appreciation for the work that this team does. Part 2 is a bit more of a shock as it deals with the Mont Maudit Avalanche and features alot of footage of dead climbers.

Part 1 takes you through the winter months (no deaths) and how the team works etc. Part 2 gives a far deeper and emotional feel to the work that they do and the morbid and often very dangerous situations they find themselves in. Part 2 might be a bit tough for some but I really recommend watching Part 1.

Thanks as always to the PGHM…legends of the valley.”

The videos are in French.

Trouvé sur Nouvelles de Goaty entrant Facebook alimentation aujourd’hui ….
Alpine expositionsJon Griffith Photographie:

Un aperçu incroyablement intéressant pour le fonctionnement de l’PGHM avec des images fantastiques de véritables sauvetages. Cela vous donne une véritable reconnaissance pour le travail que cette équipe fait. Partie 2 est un peu plus d’un choc, car il traite avec le Mont Maudit Avalanche et offre beaucoup de vidéos de grimpeurs morts.

Partie 1 vous emmène à travers les mois d’hiver (aucun décès) et la façon dont l’équipe travaille etc Partie 2 donne une sensation beaucoup plus profond et émotionnel pour le travail qu’ils font et les situations morbides et souvent très dangereuses ils se trouvent po Partie 2 puissance être un peu difficile pour certains, mais je recommande vraiment regarder la partie 1.

Merci comme toujours au PGHM légendes de la vallée.

Les vidéos sont en français.

PGHM:Mont Blanc,French mountain rescue,part 1

(Video credit: forgumpone)

PGHM:Mont Blanc,French mountain rescue,part 2

(Video credit: forgumpone)

The official facebook page of the Peloton de Gendarmerie de Haute Montagne de Chamonix Mont-blanc here: https://www.facebook.com/pghm.chamonixmontblanc

La page facebook officielle du Peloton de Gendarmerie de Haute Montagne de Chamonix Mont-blanc ici: https://www.facebook.com/pghm.chamonixmontblanc