Mississippi town evacuated after train derailment spills flammable chemicals

Alternative News & Disaster News

Dozens of families were forced from their southeastern Mississippi homes Friday after a train derailed, tipping over cars carrying fuel oil and methanol and causing officials to grow concerned about another potentially deadly chemical spill.

The Mississippi Department of Motor Vehicles announced that the train, which was traveling from Jackson, Miss. To Mobile, Ala., ran off the tracks at 9 A.M. local time (10 A.M. EST) and that no one was hurt in the incident outside New Augusta.

The approximately 50 people living within a half-mile radius of the accident were evacuated, though, because the train was hauling an ethanol-based product that spilled. Surrounding highways were also shutdown as a precaution because of ethanol’s high flammability. Between 3,000 and 4,000 gallons were spilled, according to local estimates.

“Dozens of families were forced from their southeastern Mississippi homes Friday after a train derailed, tipping over cars carrying fuel oil and methanol…

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Philippines: Tropical Depression KAJIKI/BASYANG 011200Z nr 11.0N 118.0E, moving W at 20 knots. Now over West Philippine Sea- 010214 1342z

Tropical Depression KAJIKI /BASYANG

Philippines:

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

BASYANG HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA.

(PAGASA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

TD a

TD
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 1 February 2014

<Analyses at 01/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N1100′(11.0)
E11800′(118.0)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa

PAGASA-DOSTPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST) Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER NINE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASYANG (KAJIKI)
ISSUED AT 5:00 PM, 01 FEBRUARY 2014

BASYANG HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA.

Location of eye/center:At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression BASYANG was estimated based on all available data at 88 km Southwest of Coron, Palawan (11.6N, 119.5E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement:Forecast to move West at 30 kph

Forecast Position:Tropical Depression BASYANG is expected to be at 764 km West of Coron, Palawan by tomorrow afternoon or outside the PAR.

PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL #1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

Northern Palawan incl. Calamian Group of Islands, Oriental Mindoro and Occidental Mindoro

Potential Impacts of the Winds
Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is risky
Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 10 mm per hour (moderate heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of Luzon and southern seaboard of Southern Luzon due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.
The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

For more information and queries, Please call at Telephone Numbers 927-1335 And 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9214.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 010900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z NEAR 11.8N 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 290 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 121.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z 12.9N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z 13.9N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 14.9N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 15.3N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM
SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z,
012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

Westernpacificweather.com

Basyang now affecting Northern Part of Palawan

Posted on February 1, 2014

Here is our Basyang Summary

You can download it here:

Baysang Phil Sum


As Basyang traverse Visayas Region it is now currently affecting the last part of its path in the Philippines which is Palawan Province of Luzon Region. The storm has been downgraded by PAGASA into a Tropical Depression and still a Tropical Storm for JMA. Signal No.1 still up in Mindoro Provinces and Palawan as of 5:00 PM today.

With this development Wind Advisory will be still held for Palawan Area and all other Warnings/ Watches/ Advisory are now lowered.

** Remember to refer to your Official Weather Agency!

Westpacwx

More than 18,000 in evacuation centers

Rappler.com
Posted on 02/01/2014 10:42 AM |Updated 02/01/2014 11:55 AM

BASYANG. A handout satellite image made available by the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Adminstration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki) approaching the Philippines, Jan 31, 2014. File photo from NOAA/EPABASYANG. A handout satellite image made available by the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Adminstration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki) approaching the Philippines, Jan 31, 2014. File photo from NOAA/EPA

“MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said on Saturday, February 1, that 3,698 families or 18,518 persons were displaced by Tropical Storm Basyang (Kajiki).

Evacuees fled to 74 evacuation centers in Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, and the Caraga region, the agency said in its Saturday morning report.

Basyang weakened into a tropical depression as of 11 am Saturday, state weather bureau PAGASA said, with only 10 remaining areas under storm signal no. 1.

The Department of Social Welfare and Development already prepositioned P104.30 million for emergency relief resources, which include standby funds (P54.91 million), 48,044 famliy food packs (P11.67 million), and other food and non-food items (P37.72 million).

The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) also suspended sea trips in all ports in Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental and Siquijor. A total of 9,541 passengers were reportedly stranded.

Meanwhile, at least 45 flights have been cancelled since Friday evening, January 31. (READ: Cancelled flights: Saturday, February 1)

Tent cities, hospitals

In Cebu, Saturday classes in all levels have been suspended. The provincial DRRMC said residents living in the tent city at South Road Properties evacuated at the Department of Engineering and Public Works building.

The tent city houses survivors of Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) who fled Tacoban and other parts of Eastern Visayas. The worlds most powerful typhoon flattened entire towns and cities, and left million homeless when it hit the Visayas on Nov 8, 2013.

Pre-emptive evacuations before Basyang were also done for at least 550 families in Cebu.

In Bohol’s Loon Hospital, 2 ambulances, 7 medics and 1 generator set were sent to assist in the evacuation of patients who are currently staying in tent hospitals.

Loon Hospital is one of the 14 hospitals in the province that were damaged by the 7.2-magnitude earthquake last October 2013. (READ: New hospitals to rise in Bohol after quake)

The tropical depression is expected to to be either 521 km northwest of Puerto Princesa City or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Sunday morning.” Jee Geronimo/Rappler.com

MARITIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING
WTPH RPMM 301200
TTT WARNING 02

AT 1200 30 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED AT ONE ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METER PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 311200 ZERO NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AT 011200 ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX AND AT 021200 ONE TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0600

WTJP21 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1402 KAJIKI (1402) 1002 HPA
AT 11.2N 120.3E SULU SEA MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 12.2N 117.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 13.4N 115.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 14.9N 112.2E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Australia: Tropical Cyclone 11P DYLAN 301500Z nr 19.1S 147.9E, moving S at 6 knots – expected to cross coast between Ayr & Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise – 300114 1515z

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

256 km Townsville (Hervey Range) Radar Loop

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

 

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Issued at 11:05 pm EST Thursday 30 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 18.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

 

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone, extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
– Boats and outside property should be secured.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Name:Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 30 2 18.9S 148.2E 45
+6hr 4 am January 31 2 19.6S 147.8E 55
+12hr 10 am January 31 1 20.4S 147.1E 75
+18hr 4 pm January 31 tropical low 21.0S 146.2E 95
+24hr 10 pm January 31 tropical low 21.7S 145.3E 110
+36hr 10 am February 1 tropical low 22.6S 143.2E 150
+48hr 10 pm February 1 tropical low 23.1S 141.1E 195
+60hr 10 am February 2 tropical low 23.7S 138.4E 240
+72hr 10 pm February 2 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

 

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell and St Lawrence and
adjacent inland areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 11:08 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be 125
kilometres north of Bowen and 155 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on
Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell
and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday
morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas
near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and
adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast
and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea
is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with
damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high
tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone,
extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the
Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
– Boats and outside property should be secured.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near…… 18.9 degrees South 148.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 2
.Central pressure……… 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday 31 January.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1114.gif

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 18.8S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 148.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 20.0S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 21.0S 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK THAT HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM
TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF, AUSTRALIA, WHICH
SHOWED PERSISTENT 58 KNOT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED JUST TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. TC DYLAN IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE
OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY THE LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm DYLAN (11P) currently located near 18.8 S 148.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1312UTC 30 JANUARY 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Dylan was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal nine south (18.9S)
longitude one hundred and forty eight decimal two east (148.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within 220 nautical miles in
southeastern quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within
220 nautical miles in SE quadrant. Very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 31 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.4 south 147.1 east over
land
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 31 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 21.7 south 145.3 east over
land
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 30 January 2014.

WEATHER BRISBANE

 

Mozambique: Low Pressure Area 91S 281400Z 15.4S 41.6E, moving WSW at 10 Knots. High chance of significant Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs (JTWC) – 280114 1945z

Invest 91S

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (RSMC LA REUNION)

(Image: wunderground.com) South Indian Ocean IR (Click image for source)

ZCZC 487
WTIO30 FMEE 281331 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9
2.A POSITION 2014/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/29 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/29 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/01/30 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/01/30 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2014/01/31 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/01/31 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.0
——————————————————-
CORRECTIVE ISSUED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN ERROR IN THE DVORAK TREND CODING – SECTION 3.A
——————————————————-
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKEN ALOFT WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND DEEP CONVECT
IVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE 0700Z.
0922Z AMRS2 ET 1010Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE.
DUE TO A LACK OF POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THIS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS MAINLY SUSTAINED EQUATOR
WARD BY THE MONSOON FLOW.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A SOUTH-WESTWARDS EXPECTED TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS LEAD TIME, PROXIMIT
Y OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE SHOULD LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNIN
G.
WEDNESDAY LATE, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN.
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DEEPEN THIS LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT OR MEDIUM RANGE AND THE ENS
EMBLE FORECAST OF ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY-MORE PROBABILITY FOR A GENESIS OF A TROPICAL STORM.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
NNNN

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9114.gif

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS21 PGTW 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 42.4E TO 19.2S 38.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 281238Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291430Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA.gov91S (Southern Indian Ocean)
Jan. 28, 2014
System 91S
(NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST and saw some of the thunderstorms had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C (purple).
Image Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen)

NASA Spots Developing Tropical System Affecting Mozambique’s Nampala ProvinceNASA’s Aqua satellite captured infrared data on a developing area of tropical low pressure known as System 91S that was brushing the Nampala Province of Mozambique on January 28.

Nampula is a province in northern Mozambique and its eastern coast runs along the Mozambique Channel of the Southern Indian Ocean. When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Mozambique Channel on January 28 at 10:35 UTC/5:35 a.m. EST the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument known as AIRS captured infrared data on the clouds associated with System 91S.

AIRS showed some of the thunderstorms surrounding the low-level center of circulation had high cloud tops, where temperatures exceeded -63F/-52C, a threshold that indicates strong storms and potentially heavy rainmakers. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that animated multi-spectral satellite imagery showed that the low-level center was consolidating and that there were bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the center – a sign of strengthening.

System 91S was centered near 15.4 south and 41.6 east, about 810 nautical miles northeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Maximum sustained winds are near the threshold for depression status, currently as high as 30 knots. The low is over warm enough waters to support further development.

At 11 a.m. EST on January 28, Nacala, Mozambique, located on coastal Nampula, was reporting drizzle from the fringes of System 91S with thunderstorms expected at night and on January 29.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center give System 91S a high chance for becoming a tropical depression in the next day as it tracks to the southwest in the Mozambique Channel.

Text credit:ツ Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

MARITIME

ZCZC 093
WTIO24 FMEE 281226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30
KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
16.9 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=
NNNN

Russia: Winter Olympics 2014 – No gay people in Sochi says mayor – 270114 1430z

BBC

Sochi 2014: No gay people in city, says mayor

Sochi winter olympics

The mayor of Sochi, host of the Winter Olympics, has said there are no gay people in the city.

Anatoly Pakhomov said homosexuals were welcome at the Games – as long as they “respect Russian law” and “don’t impose their habits on others”.

Opposition leader Boris Nemtsov said there were several gay bars in Sochi.

In June 2013, Russia passed a law banning the promotion of “non-traditional” sexuality to under-18s – widely seen as an attack on gay rights.

The controversial new law made providing information on homosexuality to under-18s a crime, punishable by a fine.

Critics say its loose interpretation effectively stops gay rights protests in Russia.

“As far as I know there are several gay clubs in Sochi… how do they survive? Why they are not bankrupt? ”

Boris Nemtsov Opposition leader

Anatoly Pakhomov, a member of President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, told Panorama that gay people would be welcome at the Games.

“Our hospitality will be extended to everyone who respects the laws of the Russian Federation and doesn’t impose their habits on others”, he said.

But when asked whether gay people had to hide their sexuality in Sochi, the Mayor said: “No, we just say that it is your business, it’s your life. But it’s not accepted here in the Caucasus where we live. We do not have them in our city.”

When challenged, the mayor admitted that he was not certain there were no gay people in Sochi: “I am not sure, but I don’t bloody know them.”

BBC Panorama reporter John Sweeney visited a gay bar in Sochi the night before he interviewed the mayor.

Most people did not want to be filmed and those that did were cautious about what they said.

Drag queen Madame Zhu-Zha said there was a gay community in the city and in other areas of Russia.

“There are very many clubs for gay people in Moscow – in Sochi we have two gay clubs as well. In some places there’s serious prejudice against gay people. In other places it’s not as bad.”

The Sochi 2014 organising committee told BBC Panorama it was working hard to ensure the Games will be remembered for their diversity.

Boris Nemtsov, former Deputy Prime Minister and now a leader of the opposition, said the mayor’s claim was laughable.

“As far as I know there are several gay clubs in Sochi.

“How do they survive? Why they are not bankrupt?”

Last week, President Vladimir Putin said homosexuals would be welcome in Sochi for the Olympics but said, “just leave the children alone”.

“We don’t have a ban on non-traditional sexual relations,” he said. “We have a ban on the propaganda of homosexuality and paedophilia.”

Panorama: Putin’s Games, BBC One, Monday 27 January at 20:30 GMT and then available in the UK on the BBC iPlayer.

(Video credit:  özgür demirt Published on Jan 27, 2014)

===========================

Russian PM Medvedev on gay rights

(Video credit: Impartial News Center Published on Jan 26, 2014)

CNN’s Christiane Amanpour interviews Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev

‘Welcome’ but warned – Russia’s Putin cautions gay visitors to Sochi

(Video credit: euronews (in English) Published on Jan 18, 2014)

“Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has reiterated earlier statements that gay visitors are welcome at the Games.

At a meeting with a group of young Sochi volunteers, Putin said, “We are not banning anything. We are not rounding up anyone. We have no criminal punishment for such relations, unlike many other countries.”

The Russian President, however, was also keen to stress the country’s ban on promoting homosexuality amongst minors.

“So one can feel relaxed and at ease, but please leave children in peace,” Putin continued.” – Euronews

Putin on anti gay law – BBC News

(Video credit: TvProgramss 21 January 2014)

Should athetes boycott Sochi?

Team GB Refuses Sochi Boycott

(Video credit: TheNetFrancesco Published on Aug 9, 2013)

Stephen Fry: Gay solidarity needed at Russian winter Olympics

(Video credit:  The Telegraph)

Peter Tatchell on the petition to boycott the Winter Olympics in Russia

(Video credit: Kasia Madera Published on Aug 9, 2013)

Gay Rights campaigner Peter Tatchell talks about the petition to boycott the Winter Olympics in Russia because of new anti-gay laws.

This is the incident back in 2007 to which Peter Tatchell refers….

(Video credit: thx1138mindlock Uploaded on Feb 22, 2010 Moscow, 2007)

Gay rights activist Peter Tatchell visciously punched in the face, kicked then arrested. Homophobic assailant walks free.

Richard Fairbrass (Bi-Sexual) punched in the face.

30 members of European Parliament also arrested.

Should the world boycott the Sochi Olympics in defense of gay rights?- Russia Today

(Video credit: Newsnation6 Published on Aug 9, 2013)

British actor Steven Fry has sparked a fierce debate, asking the International Olympic Committee to move the upcoming Winter Games from Sochi to Vancouver. He even compared Russia’s treatment of homosexuals to Nazi Germany. Was he right?

The subject of Fry’s ire is a controversial law passed in June, which forbids the “promotion of non-traditional relations among minors.” The terms “non-traditional” and “promotion” are open to wide interpretation, with many gay activists in Russia calling the law a potential blanket ban on any manifestations. They also say that police have idly stood by as attacks on homosexuals multiplied on the back of the new legislation.

While the first Olympic boycott dates back to 1936, when over 20 countries withdrew in protest against Nazism, the phenomenon reached its peak in the 1970s and 80s — when four Olympic Games in a row had absentees. The 1980 Moscow Games and the 1984 Los Angeles Games saw rival Socialist and Western blocks withdraw en-masse.

In recent weeks, the International Olympic Committee has negotiated with Russia’s Olympic organizers, saying that it received “assurances” that the law would be suspended for the duration of the Games. Russian officials have produced conflicting statements in response, and the situation remains uncertain.” – Russia Today

Gays face hatred attacks in Russia

(Video credit: CNN NEWS INTERNATIONAL)

The terrifying reality of life under Russia’s anti-gay laws

(Video credit: Journeyman Pictures)

France: The work of the PGHM Mont Blanc French Mountain Rescue (Videos in French) Le travail du sauvetage en montagne PGHM Mont Blanc français (VidĂ©os en français) – 220114 1643

Found on Goaty’s News incoming Facebook feed today….

Alpine Exposures- Jon Griffith Photography:

“An incredibly interesting insight in to the workings of the PGHM with fantastic footage from real rescues. It gives you a real appreciation for the work that this team does. Part 2 is a bit more of a shock as it deals with the Mont Maudit Avalanche and features alot of footage of dead climbers.

Part 1 takes you through the winter months (no deaths) and how the team works etc. Part 2 gives a far deeper and emotional feel to the work that they do and the morbid and often very dangerous situations they find themselves in. Part 2 might be a bit tough for some but I really recommend watching Part 1.

Thanks as always to the PGHM…legends of the valley.”

The videos are in French.

Trouvé sur Nouvelles de Goaty entrant Facebook alimentation aujourd’hui ….
Alpine expositionsJon Griffith Photographie:

Un aperçu incroyablement intéressant pour le fonctionnement de l’PGHM avec des images fantastiques de véritables sauvetages. Cela vous donne une véritable reconnaissance pour le travail que cette équipe fait. Partie 2 est un peu plus d’un choc, car il traite avec le Mont Maudit Avalanche et offre beaucoup de vidéos de grimpeurs morts.

Partie 1 vous emmène à travers les mois d’hiver (aucun décès) et la façon dont l’équipe travaille etc Partie 2 donne une sensation beaucoup plus profond et émotionnel pour le travail qu’ils font et les situations morbides et souvent très dangereuses ils se trouvent po Partie 2 puissance être un peu difficile pour certains, mais je recommande vraiment regarder la partie 1.

Merci comme toujours au PGHM légendes de la vallée.

Les vidéos sont en français.

PGHM:Mont Blanc,French mountain rescue,part 1

(Video credit: forgumpone)

PGHM:Mont Blanc,French mountain rescue,part 2

(Video credit: forgumpone)

The official facebook page of the Peloton de Gendarmerie de Haute Montagne de Chamonix Mont-blanc here: https://www.facebook.com/pghm.chamonixmontblanc

La page facebook officielle du Peloton de Gendarmerie de Haute Montagne de Chamonix Mont-blanc ici: https://www.facebook.com/pghm.chamonixmontblanc

Trial nearly over for opponent of Zambian anti-gay law

76 CRIMES

AIDS activist Paul Kasonkomona is scheduled to learn on Feb. 20 whether a judge will dismiss charges that were brought against him after he appeared on Zambian TV last April and said that the country should repeal its law against same-sex activity because the law hampers the fight against AIDS.

He was arrested immediately after that appearance on local Muvi TV, and was faced with the charge that his appeal for reform was a form of “soliciting for immoral purposes in a public place.”

Kasonkomona and other activists say that anti-gay laws lead to increased levels of HIV and AIDS by making LGBT people fearful of acknowledging their sexual orientation, even to a doctor.

Kasonkomona was arrested April 7 and released on bail on April 11.  Court proceedings against him have in in process since May. On Feb. 20, a judge in Lusaka Magistrates Court is scheduled to make a…

View original post 184 more words

The RNLI ‘Respect the Water’ campaign

National Water Safety

Despite the best efforts of the Royal National Lifeboat Institution’s volunteer crews and lifeguards –  Did you know that around 150 people still lose their lives around the UK coast each year, and around 80% are men?

….And are you aware that cold water shock occurs in water less than 15 degrees, but the average UK sea temperature is just 12?

You may also be surprised to know that just one metre cubed of water weighs a tonne, and that is not a lot of water. Although as water safety professionals some of this may seem obvious, our research shows that many of those most at risk underestimate such facts, and therefore put themselves in situations of increased and unnecessary risk.

These findings underpinned a new RNLI coastal safety campaign called ‘Respect the Water’ last summer to help raise awareness about dangers of drowning and general risks around the coast. The…

View original post 295 more words

Philippines/ Mindanao: Tropical Depression 1401 Lingling/ Agaton 201800Z 07N 128E, almost stationary (JMA) – 200114 2206z

Tropical Depression 1401 Lingling/ Agaton (JMA)

Philippines:

As of today, 20 Jan 2014, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)”(PAGASA)

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating  on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) West Pacific IR Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1401

TD
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 20 January 2014

<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N7°00′(7.0°)
E128°00′(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1008hPa

Unit:

1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

PAGASA-DOSTPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST) Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, 20 Jan 2014, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Philippine Red Cross

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this time

MARITIME

GALE WARNING NO. 28
For: Strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of Northeast Monsoon.
Issued at 5:00 p.m. today, 20 January 2014To gale force winds is expected to affect the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Caraga Region.
SEABOARD WEATHER WIND FORCE
(KPH)/(KNOTS)
SEA
CONDITION
WAVE
HEIGHTS
(meters)
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF VISAYAS
(Samar and Leyte)
Cloudy skies withlight to moderate rains (52- 68 /28 – 36) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 5.0
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF SOUTHERN LUZON
(Camarines Provinces, Catanduanes, The Eastern coasts of Albay, Eastern coast of Sorsogon and Eastern coast of Quezon including Polillo Island)
Cloudy skies with light rains (52- 68 /28 – 36) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 5.0
THE SEABOARD OF CARAGA REGION
(Surigao and Agusan del Norte)
Cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE SEABOARDS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN VISAYAS
(Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Guimaras, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan and Antique)
Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE NORTHERN SEABOARD OF LUZON, THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON, THE SOUTHERN SEABOARD OF SOUTHERN LUZON
(Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Northern and Eastern coast of Cagayan, Northern coast of Ilocos Norte, Isabela, Aurora, Mindoro Oriental, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate, Burias Island, Southwestern coast of Albay and of Sorsogon, Southern coast of Quezon and of Batangas)
Cloudy skies with light rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5
THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF LUZON
(Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Western coast of Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Mindoro Occidental, Western coast of Batangas and Palawan)
Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light rains (52- 63 /28 – 34) Rough to very rough 3.4 to 4.5

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves.

The next update will be issued at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 201800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 956 HPA
AT 39N 177W SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 39N 177W TO 39N 174W 38N 172W.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 172W TO 36N 166W 32N 162W.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 172W TO 34N 171W 29N 175W 26N 180E 24N 175E.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 1000 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 40N 170W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 41N 166W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 37N 143E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 37N 143E TO 37N 147E 35N 150E.
COLD FRONT FROM 37N 143E TO 34N 140E 32N 136E 29N 132E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 49N 171E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS ALMOST STATIONARY.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 27N 121E 24N 130E 18N 122E 18N 116E 22N 113E 25N 119E 27N
121E FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 10N 107E 14N 109E 14N 113E 08N 110E 10N 107E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 07N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 27N 147E EAST 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1800

WWHK82 VHHH 201800
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALES OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), SEAS NEAR LUZON AND SEAS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF VIETNAM.
SYNOPSIS (201800UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
THE INTENSE NORTHEAST MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALES TO
THE WARNING AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS AFFECTING SEAS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE GALE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER THE SCS, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND SEAS NEAR
LUZON.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
SCATTERED HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) OVER SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS WEST OF BORNEO.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Norfolk Island (AUS)/ Auckland (NZ): Ex Tropical Cyclone 08F JUNE 191200Z nr 29S 166E , moving SSE at 20 knots (MetService NZ) – 190114 1444z

Tropical Cyclone 08F JUNE (RSMC Nadi)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P JUNE (JTWC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone June: A Cyclone WARNING is current for Norfolk Island, Australia (BoM)

June currently headed toward Norfolk Island, AUS, then Auckland, NZ

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating  on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

 

Tropical Cyclone JUNE

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 1321 UTC Saturday 18 January 2014

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone JUNE

 

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm January 18 1 22.4S 164.8E 110
+6hr 6 pm January 18 1 23.8S 165.1E 140
+12hr 12 am January 19 tropical low 25.3S 165.6E 165
+18hr 6 am January 19 tropical low 26.8S 166.0E 195
+24hr 12 pm January 19 tropical low 28.2S 166.9E 220
+36hr 12 am January 20 tropical low 30.9S 168.8E 280
+48hr 12 pm January 20 tropical low 33.2S 171.2E 345
+60hr 12 am January 21 tropical low 35.5S 174.2E 430
+72hr 12 pm January 21 tropical low 38.3S 177.3E 520

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/1946 UTC 2014 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6S
165.1E AT 181800 UTC. POSITION POOR ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS AND LIES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN, LLCC SHEARED 85NM FROM
DEEP CONVECTION YEILDING DT OF 2.0, MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON
MET THUS, T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TROPICAL
CYCLONE JUNE.

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone June

Issued at 12:16 am NFT Monday 20 January 2014 based on international data at 11:30 pm NFT. Refer to Norfolk Island Tropical Cyclone Advice.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from New Zealand.

Note: Information in text warning may have been issued at a different time to the latest track data.
Remarks:

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE is currently passing to the west of Norfolk Island and is expected to continue moving in a southeast direction for the next 24 hours. The impacts on Norfolk Island are expected to be similar to a Category 1 tropical cyclone.

Damaging winds averaging about 75 kilometres per hour, with gusts to about 110 kilometres per hour, are currently occurring on Norfolk Island and will persist for the next 6 to 12 hours.

Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas, may occur along the foreshore tonight and during Monday.

Name:  Ex-Tropical Cyclone June

Details:

Time (NFT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am January 20 tropical low 29.1S 166.6E 85
+6hr 6 am January 20 tropical low 30.7S 167.4E 105
+12hr 12 pm January 20 tropical low 32.0S 168.3E 130
+18hr 6 pm January 20 tropical low 33.1S 169.5E 150
+24hr 12 am January 21 tropical low 34.0S 170.8E 175
+36hr 12 pm January 21 tropical low 36.3S 174.7E 210
+48hr 12 am January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 12 pm January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 am January 23 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau’s website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:30 am NFT Monday

IDQ20064
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Issued at 12:15 am NFT Monday 20 January 2014 based on international data at
11:30 pm NFT

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for Norfolk Island.

At 11:30 pm NFT, the centre of Ex-Tropical Cyclone June was estimated to be 130
kilometres west of Norfolk Island and moving south southeast at 33 kilometres
per hour.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE is currently passing to the west of Norfolk Island and
is expected to continue moving in a southeast direction for the next 24 hours.
The impacts on Norfolk Island are expected to be similar to a Category 1
tropical cyclone.

Damaging winds averaging about 75 kilometres per hour, with gusts to about 110
kilometres per hour, are currently occurring on Norfolk Island and will persist
for the next 6 to 12 hours.

Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and
abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas,
may occur along the foreshore tonight and during Monday.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone June at 11:30 pm NFT:
.Centre located near…… 29.1 degrees South 166.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southeast at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 110 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure……… 992 hectoPascals

The Community and Visitors to Norfolk Island should remain inside until
Ex-Tropical Cyclone June has passed and listen to the next advice at 3:30am NFT.
– Information is available from Emergency Management Norfolk Island [+6723 999]
or the Norfolk Island Police Force [+6723 22222]
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Norfolk Island
Administration website at: http://www.info.gov.nf/Emergency_Management
– For emergency assistance call the Emergency Management Norfolk Island on +6723
999 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

The next advice will be issued by 3:30 am NFT Monday 20 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau’s
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island
Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from
New Zealand.

Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs

TCWC-Wellington/Meteorological Service of New Zealand, Ltd.
http://www.metservice.co.nz/forecasts/severe_weather.asp

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2014 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JUNE (10P) currently located near 20.0 S 163.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1014.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10P_172332sams.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005    
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
190600Z — NEAR 27.9S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 165.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 31.6S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 166.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON, NORFOLK ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS SHALLOWED
AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED OVER RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY AND COMPLETES ETT AS A COLD CORE LOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 10 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA14 / GALE_STORM_WARNING_SOUTH_25S / 1203

WWNZ40 NZKL 191203 GALE WARNING 239 THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC AT 191200UTC OVER WATERS SOUTH OF 25S. LOW 992HPA, FORMER CYCLONE JUNE, NEAR 29S 166E MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 20KT. WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW: CLOCKWISE 40KT. GALE AREA MOVING WITH LOW. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 237.

Subtropic high seas forecast

Issued by MetService at 7:22pm Sunday 19 Jan 2014 NZ

Forecast valid to 1:00am Tuesday 21 Jan 2014: South of 37S and east of 178E and west 175W: Northwest quarter 25kt, easing by 200000UTC. Low 990hPa, former Cyclone JUNE, near 27S 165E moving southsoutheast 20kt. Within 300 nautical miles of Low in sector from south through west to northeast: Clockwise 25kt and gales as in warning 237. Within 420 nautical miles of Low in sector from northeast through southeast to south: Clockwise 25kt and gales as in warning 237. Within 420 nautical miles of Low: Poor visibility in areas of rain and areas of heavy swell.

Outlook following 72 hours

Low, former Cyclone June, expected near 34S 170E at 201200UTC, continuing to move southeast. Clockwise 25kt to gale near low until 221200UTC, with heavy northerly swells in southeast quadrant. High expected near 40S 145E at 221200UTC, extending ridge northeast,then moving east.

GALE WARNING 239
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 191200UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
Low 992hPa, former Cyclone JUNE, near 29S 166E moving southsoutheast 20kt.
Within 240 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 40kt.
Gale area moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 237.

Issued at 1:04am Monday 20 Jan 2014

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before:
NZDT: 8:15am, 8:15pm
NZST: 9:15am, 9:15pm
Updates and amendments may be issued at any time.

 

Mozambique/ Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone 09S DELIWE 161500Z near 20.6S 43.2E, moving SSW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 160114 1848z

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Nine)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7 (RSMC La Reunion)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC 326
WTIO30 FMEE 161300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  7
2.A POSITION 2014/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/17 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/01/17 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/18 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/01/18 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/01/19 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2014/01/19 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/20 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2014/01/21 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM MOVED BACK OVERSEAS THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 00Z AS IT HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE OVERALL ORGANISATION OF THE CORE OF THIS RATHER SMALL
SIZE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE DAY WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
MW PRESENTATION (CF TRMM PASS AT 0812Z). THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES (GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PGTW AND
KNES ESTIMATES OF 1130Z) … WITH LACK OF OTHER OBJECTIVE EVIDENCES
TO PRECISE THIS ASSESSMENT.
UP TO SATURDAY, ALL THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST WITH A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK
AND THEN A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. BEYOND, THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCES AND THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODELS MEAN
UP TO SATURDAY AND THEN CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE 3 LATEST OUTPUTS OF
ECMWF.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A ONLY A MODERATE
NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT AS A NEGATIVE FACTOR THAT SHOULD BE PARTLY
OFFSET BY THE MERIDIAN TRACK. BEYOND, THE CHANGE IN THE HEADING AND A
LOWER FORWARD MOTION SHOULD ENHANCE THE EFFECT OF THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THE
SHEAR IS EVEN EXPECTED TO STRENGHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS WORTH TO NOTE THAT EVEN WITH THE ALTERNATE SCENARII,
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGHENING SUGGESTED AT LONG RANGE AS THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLOSE OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0914.gif

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001   
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 20.2S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 43.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 21.9S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.7S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.6S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 24.6S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 23.2S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 20.7S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 18.9S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 161224Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS WELL MARKED LLCC
SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH (35 KNOTS)
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ONE CHANNEL
NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM AS IT SWITCHES STEERING
INFLUENCES. AFTER TAU 48, THIS WESTERN STR WILL DRIVE TC 09S TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER WHICH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. AFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES MOZAMBIQUE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SOME SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 152000Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 152000).//
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm NINE (09S) currently located near 20.2 S 43.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% currently
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

(Image: TSR) Storm Tracker Map (Click image for source)

MARITIME

ZCZC 144
WTIO24 FMEE 161226
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2014
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/01/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7  1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS REACHING LOCALLY
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND 30 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS CLOSE TO THE CENTER
AND MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
22.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.2 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

Australia: Tropical Low 1 – Cyclone WARNING Coastal areas from Daly River Mouth NT to Kalumburu WA. 141200Z nr 13.7S 131.3E, moving SW at 9 knots (BoM) – 140114 1620z

Tropical Low 1

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Sun Jan 12 10:30:00 2014 at Sun Jan 12 20:30:00 2014 AEST

MSLP Analysis for Mon Jan 13 06:00:00 2014 AUTC

Australian Weather Watch Radar Network (link)

NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 11:01 pm CST Tuesday 14 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities, there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT border should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (CST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 14 tropical low 13.7S 131.3E 45
+6hr 4 am January 15 tropical low 14.3S 130.7E 70
+12hr 10 am January 15 tropical low 14.9S 130.0E 90
+18hr 4 pm January 15 tropical low 15.4S 129.5E 115
+24hr 10 pm January 15 tropical low 16.0S 129.1E 135
+36hr 10 am January 16 tropical low 17.5S 128.5E 175
+48hr 10 pm January 16 tropical low 18.9S 127.9E 210
+60hr 10 am January 17 tropical low 19.6S 126.9E 245
+72hr 10 pm January 17 tropical low 20.0S 125.7E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday

WA

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 9:32 pm WST Tuesday 14 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities, there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT border should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm January 14 tropical low 13.7S 131.3E 45
+6hr 2 am January 15 tropical low 14.3S 130.7E 70
+12hr 8 am January 15 tropical low 14.9S 130.0E 90
+18hr 2 pm January 15 tropical low 15.4S 129.5E 115
+24hr 8 pm January 15 tropical low 16.0S 129.1E 135
+36hr 8 am January 16 tropical low 17.5S 128.5E 175
+48hr 8 pm January 16 tropical low 18.9S 127.9E 210
+60hr 8 am January 17 tropical low 19.6S 126.9E 245
+72hr 8 pm January 17 tropical low 20.0S 125.7E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 12:30 am WST Wednesday

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9  
Issued at 10:55 pm CST [9:25 pm WST] on Tuesday 14 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
150 kilometres south southeast of Darwin and
395 kilometres east northeast of Wyndham and
moving southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move
in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If
the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then
there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday
morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth
and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border
during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly
River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities,
there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the
NT border should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near…… 13.7 degrees South 131.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure……… 996 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday 15 January [12:30 am
WST Wednesday 15 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210IDD20040

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Heavy Rainfall and Damaging Winds
for people in the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem, Roper-McArthur, Victoria River and Barkly Districts, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands
Issued at 11:07 pm CST on Tuesday 14 January 2014

Synoptic Situation: At 9:30 pm CST a TROPICAL LOW 996 hPa, was near latitude
13.7S, longitude 131.3E, about 150 kilometres south southeast of Darwin. The
low is currently over the northwest Top End and is expected to move in a
southwest direction, close to the coast near the NT/WA Border.

Heavy rain over the Arnhem, eastern Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts,
including the Tiwi Islands may lead to flash flooding overnight and during
Wednesday.

A vigorous monsoon has developed along the north coast of the Top End.
Monsoonal squalls with locally damaging wind gusts up to 95 km/h are expected
along the Territory coastline tonight and during Wednesday. Locally damaging
wind gusts to 95 km/h are also possible with thunderstorms over the
Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts, extending into the Victoria
River and Barkly Districts on Wednesday afternoon.

A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for this system – telephone 1300 659
211 (NT)

Noonamah in Darwin’s rural area has received 153.2 mm of rain between 9am and
10:30pm today and flash flooding has also been reported in the Darwin rural
area.  Upper Adelaide River has also reported 135.8 mm of rain between 9am and
10:30pm today.

McCluer Island on the north Arnhem coast has reported 83 km/h wind gusts at
11:12 am and at 6:01pm today.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure
loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous – avoid flooded roads and watercourses.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am CST Wednesday 15 January.

This warning is also available on telephone 1300 659 214 or on the internet at
http://www.bom.gov.au.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/132200Z-141800ZJAN2014//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131951ZJAN2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 131800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.9S 73.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 132100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
131.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DARWIN CONTINUES TO INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF 997 MB WITH 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF UP
TO 7 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER,
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LAND; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODELS
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

MARITIME

IDD20110
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For waters from WA/NT Border to Cape Wessel
Issued at 11:05 pm CST on Tuesday 14 January 2014

Synoptic Situation
At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was located within 25 nautical miles of 13.7 S
131.3 E about 80 nautical miles south southeast of Darwin with central pressure
996 hectopascals moving southwest at 9 knots.

The low is expected to move southwest over the western Top End and may move
into the Timor Sea during Wednesday. The low may develop into a tropical
cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours if it moves over water.

Centre forecast to be within 75 nautical miles of 16.0 S 129.1 E about 240
nautical miles south southwest of Darwin at 9:30 pm CST Wednesday.

Gale Warning
From Daly River Mouth to WA/NT Border…
West to southwest winds 20/25 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots overnight. Winds
increasing further to clockwise 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of the low
if it develops into a cyclone. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas to 2 metres,
rising to 3 metres overnight, and to 3.5 metres if the low develops into a
cyclone. A 2 metre westerly swell developing on Wednesday.

Strong Wind Warning
From Daly River Mouth to Cape Wessel….
Southwest to northwest winds 20/30 knots between Daly River Mouth and Cape
Wessel. Winds reaching 25/33 knots over offshore waters between Cape Don and
Cape Wessel, easing in the morning. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas rising
to 3 metres. A 2 to 3 metre west to northwest swell over offshore waters in the
north, extending to offshore waters in the west later Wednesday. These
conditions should persist for another 24 to 48 hours.

The next warning will be issued by 2:00 AM CST.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

————————– End of warning —————————-

METAREA10&11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_NORTHERN-AREA / 1340

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:14S131E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1340UTC 14 JANUARY 2014

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal seven south (13.7S)
longitude one hundred and thirty one decimal three east (131.3E) over land.
Recent movement : southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds   : 20 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone over the southern Timor Sea in the
next 6 to 18 hours.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 20 knots near the centre.

Clockwise winds 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre may develop if
the low moves over water, with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 15 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.9 south 130.0 east over
land
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots
At 1200 UTC 15 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 16.0 south 129.1 east over
land
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 20 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 14 January 2014.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 08S COLIN 100900Z nr 12.7S 83.1E, moving WSW at 13 knots (JTWC) – 100114 1125z

Tropical Cyclone Colin

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC 278
WTIO30 FMEE 100726
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (COLIN)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 83.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 170 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/10 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/01/11 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/11 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/01/12 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/01/12 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2014/01/13 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/14 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2014/01/15 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5+
THE DEEP CONVECTION FLUCTUATED WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RELATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS DEGRADE A LITTLE.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE METEOSAT7
MULTISPECTRAL PICTURES.
THE MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO THE
BUOY 56552 MEASURED PRESSURE AT 09/21Z, VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AT
THAT TIME.
THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A REGULAR
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAYS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RELAX AS SYSTEM SHIFTS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WINDOW OF DEEPENING UP TO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE SLOW DEEPENING AT FIRST, SHOULD
ACCELERATE A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
FROM TUESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE WITH COLDER SST
AND THE STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN
TO WEAKEN.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0814.gif

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 12.5S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 83.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 13.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 14.1S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 15.2S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 16.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 19.2S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 22.3S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 27.4S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO PERSIST OVER A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A DEEP BAND OF
CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC, BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY THE
SYSTEM’S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH
WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD.
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND
110900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

ZCZC 214
WTIO20 FMEE 100656
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2014 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/01/2014 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (COLIN) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 83.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE WESTER
N SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDIN
G UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EX
TENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/10 AT 18 UTC:
14.4 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2014/01/11 AT 06 UTC:
15.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL
NNNN

Tonga/Vavau: Severe Tropical Cyclone 07 IAN (=CAT4 HURRICANE SS) 102100Z nr 19.3S 174.6W, moving S at 5 knot (JTWC) – 100114 2155z

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian

 

Category Cyclone 4 (RSMC NADI)

 

= CAT 4 (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVAU GROUP AND HAAPAI GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

 

(RSMC NADI)

 

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dd/Tonga.jpg

 

7570 people live on the Haapai Islands (Census 2006), Vavau Population 14922 (as of 2011) in path of TC Ian

 

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

 

TROPICALCYCLONETHREATTRACKMAP

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone IAN Category 4

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 25 issued 2013 UTC Friday 10 January 2014

 

 

Note: the past cyclone track may be adjusted on the basis of later information. The forecast track is considered the most likely based on the information available at time of analysis, and there may be other possible future tracks.

 

 

 

Warning: Gales or stronger within 24 hours Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Alert: Gales or stronger within 24-48 hours Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds

 

For the 24 hr and 48 hr positions, the three radii represent the extent of Hurricane, Storm and Gale winds away from the centre.

 

 

 

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone IAN
Situation At: 1800 UTC Friday 10 January 2014
Location: 18.8S, 174.7W
Recent Movement: SSE at 12 km/h

 

 

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

 

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

 

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0991.jpg

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1940 UTC 2014 UTC.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN 07F CENTRE 938HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.8S 174.7W AT 101800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 105 KNOTS.

 

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

 

EYE WELL DEFINED IN VIS/IR. IAN LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW ENHANCED TO SOUTH BY JET STREAM
LOCATED ON THE DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROCHING UPPER TROUGH. SST AROUND
28 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE IN LG
SURROUND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDING DT OF 5.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, T5.5/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.

 

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

 

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 20.1S 174.3W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 21.6S 173.7W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

 

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 23.2S 173.1W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 25.0S 172.6W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

 

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110200 UTC.

 

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY FIVE for Tonga ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1959 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVAU GROUP AND HAAPAI
GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN CENTRE [938HPA] CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 174 DECIMAL 7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 NAUTICAL MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VAVAU AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
HAAPAI AT 101900 UTC. IAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 08 KNOTS. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE
AVERAGE WINDS UP TO ABOUT 105 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145
KNOTS.

 

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT
95 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF VAVAU AND ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAAPAI AT 110700 UTC AND ABOUT 185 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF VAVAU AND ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HAAPAI AND ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT
111900UTC.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

 

FOR THE VAVAU AND HAAPAI GROUP:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF
105 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

 

FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 40 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

 

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SWELLS.

 

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
102300UTC OR EARLIER

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0714.gif

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/07P_100532sair.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101800Z NEAR 18.9S 174.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 174.8W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z 20.4S 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z 22.0S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z 23.4S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z 25.0S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z 28.6S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z 34.1S 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 174.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM SOUTHWEST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 07P
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P. THE IR
ANIMATION DEPICTS AN INTENSE, TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH AN 18 NM
EYE FEATURE. A 101652Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SHARPLY
DEFINED EYEWALL WITH SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT
FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE IR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115-127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
OF TC 07P HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. BY TAU 72,
TC 07P WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SSTS,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL
GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN.

 

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

(Image: wunderground.com)

 

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jan, 2014 18:00 GMT

 

 

 

Very Intense TC IAN (07P) currently located near 18.9 S 174.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

 

Emergency Management in the Kingdom of Tonga

 

Tonga Red Cross Society

 

(Links from doctoradvice4u.com)

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA14 / HURRICANE_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 1800

 

WHPS01 NFFN 101800
HURRICANE WARNING 024 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/1857 UTC 2014 UTC.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN CENTRE 938HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8 SOUTH
174.7 WEST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.8S 174.7W AT 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.

 

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 65 KNOTS
BY 111800 UTC.

 

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

 

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.1S 174.3W AT 110600 UTC
AND NEAR 21.6S 173.7W AT 111800 UTC.

 

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

 

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 023.

 

Marine Weather Bulletin Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 9:25am on Saturday the 11th of January 2014

 

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATU-I-RA PASSAGE, KORO SEA AND LAU WATERS .

 

Situation: A fresh to strong southerly wind flow prevails over Fiji waters. Forecast to midday tomorrow for Fiji waters: For Vatu-i-ra passage, Koro Sea and Lau Waters: South to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy southerly swells. Further outlook: Southerly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southerly swells. For the rest of Fiji waters: South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southerly swells. Further outlook: Southerly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas.

New US military helicopter crash as four dead crew from Norfolk accident are named

It’s Officially Too Cold Even for Polar Bears

NewsFeed

Here’s how most jokes about the below freezing temperatures will go today:

Man it’s cold!

How cold is it?

It’s so cold even polar bears aren’t crazy enough to be outside!

Truth is, if you hear this one-liner, it’s likely in reference to Anana, the lone polar bear resident of Chicago’s Lincoln Park Zoo. She’s been moved to a climate controlled environment to stay out of the city’s hyper frigid weather Tuesday, which went as low as 9 degrees below zero.

Typically polar bears inhabit environments that are always this cold. Average winter temperatures in the arctic circle can be as frigid as 40 below, which is what wind chills were expected to be in Chicago on Tuesday. But the animals who live at the North Pole tend to put on a layer of fat before winter sets in that would keep them warm. Zookeepers say Anana hasn’t put…

View original post 81 more words

Austria/Nazi Germany 1940: How French POWs secretly filmed Oflag 17a prison camp life in WWII – Amazing story – 040114 2330z

(G: Scroll down for French translation) (G: Faites dfiler pour la traduction franaise)

“One of the most extraordinary episodes involving Allied prisoners during World War II was recently remembered in Paris.

They had been defeated in the Battle of France and marched to the furthest reaches of the Reich. In 1940, Oflag 17a must have felt a bleak, unforgiving place for the 5,000 French officers who were now prisoners-of-war.

The Austrian camp, close to the border with Czechoslovakia, was originally built for troops taking part in military exercises.

There were 40 barracks, 20 each side of a central aisle. The land was bound by two lines of barbed wire, the perimeter illuminated by floodlights.

Escape seemed almost impossible. Almost…. and it is remarkable that we can see it.

Through some extraordinary ingenuity – and cunning – the men filmed their efforts.

Their rarely seen footage is called Sous Le Manteau (Clandestinely). So professional is it that on first viewing you would be forgiven for thinking it is a post-war reconstruction.

French prisoner filming Prisoners filmed the camp secretly with a camera inside a hollowed-out dictionary

It is in fact a 30-minute documentary, shot in secret by the prisoners themselves. Risking death, they recorded it on a secret camera built from parts that were smuggled into the camp in sausages.”

More here:

BBC News – How French secretly filmed prison camp life in WWII

Oflag XVII-A, was a German Army World War II prisoner-of-war camp for officers (Offizierlager) located between the villages Edelsbach and Dllersheim, in the district of Zwettl in the Waldviertel region of north-eastern Austria.

More here:

Oflag XVII-A – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Video

Sous Le Manteau (Under The Cloak) French Prisoner of War Documentary

(Video credit: Schedule Hater )

Published on Aug 2, 2013

Amazing footage of French POWs who escape from a German camp. They smuggled in camera parts in sausages and assembled the camera inside a dictionary from the prison library and some shoes. They then film their escape through a tunnel they dug underneath a theatre. This is the actual footage of their escape.

FRENCH

Autriche / Allemagne nazie 1940: Comment les prisonniers de guerre franais film en secret Oflag 17a vie de camp de prisonniers dans la Seconde Guerre mondiale – histoire tonnante – 040 114 2330

BBC par Christian Fraser BBC Nouvelles , Paris


” L’un des pisodes les plus extraordinaires de prisonniers allis pendant la Seconde Guerre mondiale a t rcemment rappel dans Paris .

Ils avaient t vaincus dans la bataille de France et marcha jusqu’aux confins du Reich . En 1940 , l’Oflag 17a doit se sentir un endroit sombre , impitoyable pour les 5000 officiers franais qui taient maintenant prisonniers de guerre .

Le camp autrichien , prs de la frontire avec la Tchcoslovaquie , a t construit l’origine pour les troupes participant des exercices militaires .

Il y avait 40 casernes, 20 de chaque ct d’une alle centrale . Le terrain a t li par deux lignes de barbels , le primtre clair par des projecteurs .

vasion semblait presque impossible . Presque …. et il est remarquable que nous pouvons voir.

Grce un peu d’ingniosit extraordinaire – et la ruse – les hommes films leurs efforts .

Leur squence rarement vu est appel Sous Le Manteau ( clandestinement ) . Est si professionnel il que sur le premier visionnement vous seriez pardonn de penser que c’est une reconstruction d’aprs-guerre .
Franais dtenus prisonnier de tournage ont film le camp en secret avec une camra l’intrieur d’un dictionnaire vid

Il est en fait un documentaire de 30 minutes , tourn en secret par les prisonniers eux-mmes . Risquer la mort , ils ont enregistr sur une camra secrte construit partir de pices qui ont t introduites en contrebande dans le camp dans les saucisses . ”

Plus ici :
BBC Nouvelles – Comment franais secrtement film la vie de camp de prisonniers dans la Seconde Guerre mondiale

Oflag XVII -A , tait un camp de la Seconde Guerre mondiale l’arme allemande de prisonnier de guerre pour les officiers ( Offizierlager ) situ entre les villages Edelsbach et Dllersheim , dans le district de Zwettl dans la rgion de Waldviertel du nord- est de l’Autriche .

Plus ici :
Oflag XVII -A – Wikipedia , l’encyclopdie libre

Prisonniers filmant leur camp de 1940 Ă 1945

(Video credit: Documentaires Histoire)

Published on Apr 28, 2013

Extraits d’un documentaire sur le seul film connu tournĂ par des prisonniers, Ă l’insu de leurs gardiens allemands, durant la 2e guerre mondiale.

Au pĂril de leur vie, une cinquantaine de prisonniers ont filmĂ leur quotidien au sein du camp Oflag 17A, en Autriche, qui comprenait 5000 officiers franĂais.

Les prisonniers essayaient rĂguliĂrement de s’Ăvader mais beaucoup se faisaient reprenndre au bout de quelques jours. La Gestapo venait rĂguliĂrement fouiller le camp afin de dĂcouvrir d’Ăventuels tunnels d’Ăvasion.

Le film “Sous le manteau” est sorti en salle en 1946.

‘Polar vortex’ to blast frigid air over much of US

New Pittsburgh Courier

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — The weather warnings are dire: Life threatening wind chills. Historic cold outbreak.

Winter is normally cold, but starting Sunday tundra-like temperatures are poised to deliver a rare and potentially dangerous sledgehammer blow to much of the Midwest, driving temperatures so far below zero that records will shatter.

One reason? A “polar vortex,” as one meteorologist calls it, which will send cold air piled up at the North Pole down to the U.S., funneling it as far south as the Gulf Coast.

The temperature predictions are startling: 25 below zero in Fargo, N.D., minus 31 in International Falls, Minn., and 15 below in Indianapolis and Chicago. At those temperatures, exposed skin can get frostbitten in minutes and hypothermia can quickly set in because wind chills could hit 50, 60 or even 70 below zero.

Temperature records will likely be broken during the short, yet forceful deep…

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The Order of St John and Mountain Rescue?

heavywhalley

I bet few who use the Outdoors know about the wonderful work of the Order Of St John and its incredible assistance to Mountain Rescue in Scotland? Hope fully after reading this you may have an idea of what work they have done.

Order of st John Logo

This is the copy of a letter I wrote to the Order when I retired from Mountain Rescue. Firstly please accept my sincere apologies for not writing before to thank you for all your great work for the Mountain Rescue Committee of Scotland over the year for the Mountain Rescue Committee of Scotland over the years. I was the Chairman of the Mountain Rescue Committee in the early nineties when we were first approached by the Order of St John who wanted to assist Mountain Rescue in Scotland.

I was at that time in the RAF and serving at RAF Kinloss in Morayshire. I was the Team…

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UK Weather: How stormy has it been and why?

Official blog of the Met Office news team

Since the start of December the UK has seen a prolonged period of particularly unsettled weather, with a series of storms tracking in off the Atlantic bringing strong winds and heavy rain.

The windiest month since 1993

In order to compare the recent spell with the numerous stormy periods of weather in the past the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre has done an analysis of the number of weather stations in the UK which have registered winds over certain thresholds since the start of December.

This measure suggests that December 2013 is the stormiest December in records dating back to 1969 and is one of the windiest calendar months for the UK since January 1993.

December was also a very wet month across the UK, particularly in Scotland where it was the wettest December and wettest month overall in the records dating back to 1910.

But why has this…

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