Atlantic Ocean/ UK: Post Tropical Cyclone Helene 16/1500Z 43.8N 25.7W, moving N 25 kt 989mb (NHC)- Updated 16 Sep 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone HELENE/ Storm Helene (UK)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

United Kingdom

Pressure UK 16

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for ‘North East England’, ‘North West England’, ‘Northern Ireland’, ‘South West England’, ‘Strathclyde’, ‘SW Scotland, Lothian Borders’, ‘Wales’, ‘Yorkshire & Humber’

Updated 16 September at 0926 BST

Valid from 1800 BST on Mon 17 September to 0800 BST on Tue 18 September

Storm Helene will bring a spell of strong winds to western parts of the UK in particular late Monday and early Tuesday.

– Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport expected.

– Some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer.

– Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges.

– Some short term loss of power and other services.

– Coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves.

– Some damage to trees is possible, for example large branches or trees falling in a few places.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 161441
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

FQNT21 EGRR 160800
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2018
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER UNTIL 0800
UTC ON MONDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2018

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE
THROUGHOUT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH VIOLENT
STORM FORCE 11 IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 50 MILES
OF THE CENTRE BETWEEN 161800UTC AND 170800UTC. LOW 58
NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01 WEST 984 BY SAME
TIME. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORM FORCE
10 AT TIMES AROUND 50 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM 162200UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. LOW 58 NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01
WEST 984 BY SAME TIME. LOW 61 NORTH 26 WEST 980 EXPECTED
63 NORTH 20 WEST 984 BY THAT TIME. AT 160000UTC, LOW 53
NORTH 38 WEST 1003 EXPECTED 54 NORTH 23 WEST 1001 BY
170000UTC
AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

SOLE
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 AT FIRST EXCEPT IN WEST, OTHERWISE
VARIABLE 4, BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5,
INCREASING 6 TO GALE 8 LATER IN WEST. SLIGHT OR MODERATE,
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT FIRST, FOG PATCHES
DEVELOPING. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

SHANNON ROCKALL
WEST BACKING SOUTH 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH IN ROCKALL.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

BAILEY FAEROES
CYCLONIC, BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST, 5 TO 7, INCREASING
GALE 8 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SQUALLY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

SOUTHEAST ICELAND
SOUTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8 AT FIRST IN NORTHEAST,
OTHERWISE WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR THUNDERY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

EAST NORTHERN SECTION
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES, DECREASING 4
AT TIMES LATER, THEN BECOMING CYCLONIC 4 OR 5,
OCCASIONALLY 6 LATER IN FAR SOUTHEAST. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST OF ICELAND. RAIN
OR SHOWERS, THUNDERY AT TIMES IN NORTH. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR IN NORTH

WEST NORTHERN SECTION
IN NORTHEAST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTH. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHEAST, WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
DECREASING MAINLY 3 OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY
VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR EAST. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT
FIRST, OTHERWISE SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHWEST, NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING VARIABLE 3
OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH. SHOWERS. GOOD.
IN NORTHWEST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 3 OR 4 IN FAR
WEST, OTHERWISE 5 TO 7, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8 LATER IN FAR
NORTH. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH LATER.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

EAST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY, BECOMING CYCLONIC,
4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 EXCEPT IN FAR SOUTHWEST,
OTHERWISE CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 TO STORM 10
FOR A TIME, OCCASIONALLY VIOLENT STORM 11 LATER IN FAR
SOUTHEAST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH OR HIGH
IN FAR SOUTH, OCCASIONALLY VERY HIGH LATER IN SOUTHEAST.
FOG PATCHES AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTH, OTHERWISE RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR AT FIRST

WEST CENTRAL SECTION
IN SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY BACKING NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 IN
FAR SOUTHEAST AT FIRST, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8, OTHERWISE
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES,
OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE 3 OR 4 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTHEAST. RAIN
AT TIMES, SHOWERS LATER IN FAR WEST. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN NORTH, CYCLONIC 5 OR 6, BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

DENMARK STRAIT
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES. SLIGHT
OR MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH IN FAR SOUTH. SLEET OR SNOW
AT TIMES. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES NEAR GRENLAND COAST,
OTHERWISE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8,
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN EAST. MODERATE AT TIMES
NEAR COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN EAST. OCCASIONAL SNOW NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE RAIN AT TIMES. MODERATE OR
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR, BUT VERY POOR AT TIMES NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND

NORTH ICELAND
IN NORTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTHWEST,
OTHERWISE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6
AT TIMES. SLIGHT OR MODERATE. SLEET OR SNOW AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR

NORWEGIAN BASIN
VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT FIRST IN EAST, OTHERWISE SOUTHEASTERLY
5 TO 7, BECOMING CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8, INCREASING SEVERE
GALE 9 OR STORM 10 FOR A TIME. MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH
OR VERY ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN FAR NORTH. RAIN
FOR A TIME, SHOWERS LATER. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY
POOR

OUTLOOK FOR FOLLOWING 24 HOURS:
STORMS EXPECTED IN SOLE, SHANNON, EAST CENTRAL SECTION
AND NORWEGIAN BASIN. GALES OR SEVERE GALES EXPECTED IN
EAST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST
CENTRAL SECTION, DENMARK STRAIT AND NORTH ICELAND
UNSCHEDULED STORM WARNINGS ARE BROADCAST VIA SAFETYNET
AND IN
BULLETIN WONT54 EGRR AVAILABLE VIA SOME INTERNET AND
FTPMAIL
OUTLETS=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Depression Florence 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W, moving W 10mph/ ~8.69 kt 1002mb (NHC/NWS) – Updated 16 Sep 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Florence

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

811
WTNT31 KWNH 161511
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 69
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…34.0N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 81.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the day on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Southeastern…Central and western North Carolina…far northern
South Carolina into far southwest Virginia…

Southeastern North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina:

Additional 3 to 6 inches of rain…with isolated maximum of 8
inches possible…with storm total accumulations of 30 to
40 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Central and Western North Carolina…far northern South Carolina and
far southwest Virginia:

Additional 5 to 10 inches of rain, with storm total accumulations of
15 to 20 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce flash
flooding and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

West-central Virginia:

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across southeast North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Oravec

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 35.3N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 39.7N 80.5W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 40.7N 76.1W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 42.3N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 46.1N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Wilmington, NC Local Tropical Website 508 AM EDT Sun Sep 16

 

Other

 

Category 2 Florence Nears Landfall in North Carolina; Catastrophic Flooding Expected

Dr. Jeff Masters

In Florence’s Grip, No Relief for North Carolina

Bob Henson

Dire Flood Threat for the Carolinas as Florence’s Record Rains Continue

Bob Henson

Florence’s Flood Threat Expands Inland

Bob Henson

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 160852 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1000 MB

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 81.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLORENCE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON FLORENCE CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING
AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China / HongKong/ Macau/ Vietnam/ Philippines: Typhoon Mangkhut (26W) 161500Z 22.3N 111.0E, moving WNW 17kt (JTWC) – Updated 16 Sep 2019 1455Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mangkhut (26W)

MANGKHUT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Mangkhut forecast to move west by north direction at the speed of 30 km/h and is predicted to make landfall in coastal areas from Zhuhai to Wuchuan, Guangdong, around afternoon to the night of September 16 – CMA

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 26W (Mangkhut) Warning #39 Final Warning
Issued at 16/1500Z

wp2618

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 22.1N 111.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 111.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 23.0N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.9N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.9N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 25.8N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 111.0E.
TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM WEST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STILL EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR ITS CENTER, WHICH IS NOW OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161100Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM YANGJIANG, 21 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST, READING 17 KTS AND 971 MB.
WITHOUT TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS, 971 MB WOULD SUPPORT A
69 KT SUSTAINED WINDSPEED. TY 26W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING IT TO
SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION WHILE IT TRACKS OVER LAND. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 26W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND IN
SOUTHERN CHINA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 24, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND HWRF RECURVING THE WEAKENING CYCLONE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AROUND THE STR AXIS, AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS CONTINUING
THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND CALLS FOR 26W TO DISSIPATE AFTER
TAU 36. BASED ON INCREASING TRACK UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 24,
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 24 AND
FAIR AFTERWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

 

JMA logo1822-00 M16 JMA TRACK

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 16 September 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 16 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N22¬į10′ (22.2¬į)
E111¬į35′ (111.6¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
‚Č• 50 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area E 700 km (375 NM)
W 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23¬į05′ (23.1¬į)
E108¬į35′ (108.6¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23¬į55′ (23.9¬į)
E106¬į10′ (106.2¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY #4 – FINAL
FOR: TYPHOON “MANGKHUT” (FORMERLY “OMPONG”)

 

Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 September 2018
Typhoon “MANGKHUT” (formerly “Ompong”) maintains its strength as it moves closer to Southern China.
Location of Center
(10:00 AM today)
The eye of Typhoon “MANGKHUT” was estimated based on all available data at¬†705 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR)(21.1¬įN,115.0¬įE) ¬†¬†¬†Track
Maximum Sustained Winds 145 km/h near the center
Gustiness Up to 180 km/h
Movement Northwest at 30 km/h
Forecast Positions and Intensities
Tomorrow Morning
17 September 2018
1,315 km¬†West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan¬†(OUTSIDE PAR)¬†(22.4¬įN, 109.3¬įE)
Tropical Storm
Tuesday Morning
18 September 2018
1,835 km¬†West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR)¬†(24.1¬įN, 104.5¬įE)¬†
Tropical Depression
  • This typhoon no longer has a direct threat in any part of the country.
With this development, this is the final advisory for this disturbance.  The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast at 4 PM today.

PH Emergency Numbers.jpg

HONG KONG

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45 (HkT)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the southeast quarter.

At 10 p.m., Typhoon Mangkhut was centred about 310 kilometres west of Hong Kong (near 22.1 degrees north 111.2 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 30 kilometres per hour into the inland area of southern China and weaken gradually.

With Mangkhut departing, local winds are weakening gradually. However, many places are still being affected by gale or storm force winds. The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal will remain in force for a period of time. Precautions should not yet be relaxed.

Rainbands of Mangkhut will still bring heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Sea will be high with swells. It is expected that Mangkhut will weaken over inland areas of South China, local winds will moderate further on Monday.

Mangkhut today brought different degrees of damages to Hong Kong. There may be hidden danger. Members of the public should remain on the alert for assurance of personal safety.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Cheung Chau, Sha Chau and Sai Kung were 96, 94 and 74 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts 121, 117 and 91 kilometres per hour respectively.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 18:50

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 6:50 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

topbanner

Red Warning of Typhoon

16-09-2018Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center continued to issue red warning of typhoon at 6:00 a.m. on September 16. This year’s 22th typhoon Mangkhut, (super typhoon scale), was centered over 420 km south of Taishan city, Guangdong at 5:00 a.m. this morning. China Sea (48m/s). The maximum wind intensity registered scale 15. The minimum air pressure registered 940 hPa. It is forecast to move west by north direction at the speed of 30 km/h and is predicted to make landfall in coastal areas from Zhuhai to Wuchuan, Guangdong, around afternoon to the night of September 16.

From September 16 to 17, central-northern South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, Bashi Channel, Taiwan Island, Qiongzhou Strait, coastal Fujian, coastal Guangdong, Pearl River Estuary, eastern Hainan Island, eastern Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Macao will be exposed to scale 7-10 gale. Heavy rain to rainstorm will batter Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, southeastern Fujian, most portions of Guangxi, Hainan Island, southeastern Taiwan Island. (Sep. 16)

Editor: Liu Shuqiao

NCHMF VIETNAM

TYPHOON WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Sunday, September 16, 2018 22 111.6 TY 133 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Monday, September 17, 2018 23.4 106 td 46 km/hour
19 Tuesday, September 18, 2018 24 100.5 Low 28 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 PM Sunday, September 16, 2018
TC TRACKS

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Sep, 2018 6:00 GMT

 

Typhoon MANGKHUT is currently located near 21.6 N 113.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). MANGKHUT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MANGKHUT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Guiyang (26.6 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1822 MANGKHUT (1822) 970 HPA
AT 22.2N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 23.1N 108.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 23.9N 106.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
PHILIPPINES

WTPH20 RPMM 151200
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 14 FINAL
TYPHOON MANGKHUT (1822)
ANALYSIS 151200UTC
PSTN 19.2N 118.4E
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 80KT
64KT 030NM NE 030NM SE 030NM SW 030NM NW
50KT 100NM NE 080NM SE 080NM SW 100NM NW
30KT 230NM NE 200NM SE 200NM SW 230NM NW
FORECAST 24H 161200UTC
PSTN 21.7N 112.0E
CATE TYPHOON
FORECAST 48H 171200UTC
PSTN 23.2N 106.2E
CATE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
FINAL WARNING
PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND
ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION=
HONG KONG

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 16/Sep/2018
Tropical Cyclone Warning

Severe Typhoon Mangkhut (1822) has weakened into a Typhoon with central pressure 960 hectopascals. At 161200 UTC, it was centred within 60 nautical miles of two two point zero degrees north (22.0 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 16 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 80 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 270 nautical miles over eastern semicircle, 225 nautical miles elsewhere.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 330 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 171200 UTC
Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N)
One zero six point zero degrees east (106.0 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 181200 UTC
Dissipated over land.
CHINA

WWCI50 BABJ 160000
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC SEP.16 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC SEP.16=
FCST VALID 0000UTC SEP.17=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
STY MANGKHUT 1822(1822) 940HPA AT 20.6N 115.6E
MVG WNW 35KMH AND MAX WINDS 50M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
500KM NE
450KM SE
400KM SW
350KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
200KM NE
250KM SE
180KM SW
120KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
60KM NE
80KM SE
80KM SW
60KM NW
AND FCST FOR 170000UTC AT 23.0N 108.9E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NE/E WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SOUTHWESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND TAIWAN STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 26 TO 38M/S GUSTS 40 TO 48M/S SEAS UP
TO 10.0M OVER NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
WINDS FROM 18 TO 22M/S GUSTS 25 TO 30M/S SEAS UP
TO 6.0M OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW/W WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVE ANDAMAN
SEA AND MALACCA STRAIT AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND SEA SOUTH OF
JAWA AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
NE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
TAIWAN STRAIT
SE WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH HVY RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BEIBU GULF
NW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SW
WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG RAINSTORM VIS GOOD TO POOR=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S BACK SW
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
RAINSTORM VIS POOR=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 32 TO 41M/S GUSTS 37 TO 46M/S BACK S
WINDS 25 TO 32M/S GUSTS 29 TO 36M/S SEA STATE
HIGH TO VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS
POOR TO MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 32 TO 41M/S GUSTS 37 TO 46M/S BACK SE
WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE
VERY HIGH TO VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG LIGHT
RAIN VIS POOR TO MOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS BACK S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS BACK S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
W WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO
12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
SE WINDS BACK NE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS
E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO
12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK NE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
NE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S VEER E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA
STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
MALACCA STRAIT
W WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S VEER SW
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
TO ROUGH HVY RAIN VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IN NORTH CAROLINA

‚ö†ÔłŹ FLASH #FLOOD EMERGENCY for #Craven, #Carteret, #Pamlico, and #Jones counties. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!
#NorthCarolina #NC #NCwx #Florence #HurricaneFlorence #PDS #NWS #News
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Flash%20Flood%20Warning

Johnston Island/ Hawaii/ Central Pacific/ HURRICANE HECTOR CAT3 10E 09/1500Z 16.6N 160.1W, moving W ~14.03kt 957mb (CPHC) – Updated 09 Aug 2018 1820Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE HECTOR 10E

Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

……MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON

JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK…….CPHC

*A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Johnston Island – CPHC

**FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF HECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY** – NWS HI

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Hector – CPHC

 

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

ep102018_3day_cone_no_line_37

 

 

WTPA31 PHFO 091452
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 09 2018

…MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH
OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON JOHNSTON ISLAND
LATER THIS WEEK…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.6N 160.1W
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 620 MI…1000 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for…
* Johnston Island

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
*A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Johnston Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible
within the next 48 hours.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway
and Kure Atolls and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
west of Pearl/Hermes, should monitor the progress of Hector. This
does not include the main Hawaiian Islands.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 160.1 West. Hector is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through today. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest is expected from tonight through late Friday. Note
that on the forecast path, the center of Hector is expected to pass
to the north of Johnston Island late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast
through Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Hector should begin to impact Johnston
Island tonight. This will likely produce large and dangerous waves
along portions of the island from late tonight through Friday
night.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston

Links:

Hawaii Emergency Management Agency
City and County of Honolulu Department of Emergency Management
Kauai Emergency Management
Maui County Emergency Management
Hawaii County Civil Defense

NWS Forecast Office Honolulu, HI

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

Other

Subtropical Storm Debby Forms; Cat 4 Hector Poised to Graze Hawaii

Dr. Jeff Masters August 7, 2018, 2:34 PM EDT

Dr. Jeff Masters co-founded Weather Underground in 1995, and flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

HURRICANE WARNING

Offshore Waters Forecast for Hawaii
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
528 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240
nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height
of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than
twice the significant wave height.

PHZ180-092215-
Hawaiian Offshore Waters-
528 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…Hurricane conditions expected far SW waters early. Seas
10 to 20 ft. Elsewhere, E to SE winds 10 to 20 kt and seas 7 to 10
ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft, highest SW.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY…E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

WTPA21 PHFO 091449 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102018
1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR…
. JOHNSTON ISLAND

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. JOHNSTON ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS… INCLUDING MIDWAY
AND KURE ATOLLS AND THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
WEST OF PEARL/HERMES…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HECTOR. THIS
DOES NOT INCLUDE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 160.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 150SW 190NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 160.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 159.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 162.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.2N 164.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hong Kong/ China/ South China Sea: Tropical Depression 1816 09/1500Z 18.1¬įN 111.4¬įE, next 24hrs will move NNW at speed of 12km/h (~6.47kt) 998hPa (CMA) – Published 09 Aug 2018 1520Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 1816

Guangdong Hainan Island China Beware!

CMA CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

Typhoon Message
20180809 23:12

National Meteorological Center No.2396
Analysis Time: Aug. 09th 15 UTC
Name of TC: TD
Current Location: 18.1¬įN 111.4¬įE
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 15m/sÔľą54km/hÔľČ
Central Pressure: 998hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs will moving NNW at speed of 12km/h

HongKong HKO logo

Tropical Depression
at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Position: 18.3 N, 111.9 E (about 500 km south-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 45 km/h
The tropical cyclone over the northern part of the South China Sea will move in the general direction towards the vicinity of the coast of western Guangdong to Hainan Island in the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
20:00 HKT 10 August 2018 20.3 N 111.5 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 11 August 2018 21.3 N 111.4 E Tropical Storm 65 km/h
20:00 HKT 12 August 2018 21.7 N 110.6 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 13 August 2018 22.1 N 108.8 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
20:00 HKT 14 August 2018 21.8 N 106.2 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

In the past few hours, the movement of the tropical depression was rather slow and kept a distance from Hong Kong.

According to the present forecast track, the chance of issuing the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is not high before dawn on Friday. Members of the public should take note of the latest weather situation before departing home in the morning.

The outer rain bands of the tropical depression will affect the coast of Guangdong on Friday and Saturday. Locally, there will be squally showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be occasionally strong over offshore waters and on high ground.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 1 Signal)

1. Every precaution should be taken. Objects likely to be blown away should be secured or taken indoors. Check if all windows and doors can be securely locked.

2. Drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish. People in low-lying areas should take precautions against flooding.

3. Those who have duties during a tropical cyclone should now remain on call.

4. There may be swells, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline.

5. Listen to radio, watch TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory’s website and mobile app for the latest information on the tropical cyclone.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Tropical Cyclone Warning (HKO)

At 091200 UTC, the tropical depression over the northern part of South China Sea with central pressure 998 hectopascals was centred within 90 nautical miles of one eight point one degrees north (18.1 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move north-northwest at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 25 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 60 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 101200 UTC
Two zero point three degrees north (20.3 N)
One one one point five degrees east (111.5 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 111200 UTC
Two one point three degrees north (21.3 N)
One one one point four degrees east (111.4 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 121200 UTC
Two one point seven degrees north (21.7 N)
One one zero point six degrees east (110.6 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 131200 UTC
Two two point one degrees north (22.1 N)
One zero eight point eight degrees east (108.8 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 141200 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

WWHK82 VHHH 091200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) OVER NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA(SCS): NIL.
SYNOPSIS (091200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 091200UTC, TD WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA AND MAXIMUM
WINDS 25 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 18.1N 111.9E AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNW AT ABOUT 6 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 101200UTC: 20.3N, 111.5E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SCS.
SWELL SW 3 M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 210 NM FROM CENTRE OF TD.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE SCS AND SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm SHANSHAN (17W) 09/1200Z 37.9N 142.5E, moving NNE 11kt 985 hPa (JMA) – Updated 09 Aug 2018 1444Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm SHANSHAN (17W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

1813-005

 

JPwarn S9

STS 1813 (Shanshan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 9 August 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 9 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N37¬į55′ (37.9¬į)
E142¬į30′ (142.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39¬į35′ (39.6¬į)
E146¬į30′ (146.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41¬į00′ (41.0¬į)
E153¬į00′ (153.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 17W (Shanshan) Warning #27
Issued at 09/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
091200Z — NEAR 37.8N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 142.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 39.6N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 27 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 41.0N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 38.2N 143.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SHANSHAN is currently located near 37.4 N 141.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). SHANSHAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP22 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 985 HPA
AT 37.9N 142.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 39.6N 146.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 41.0N 153.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 091200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 141E
42N 143E 47N 153E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 41N 180E 35N 165E 40N
150E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 59N 163E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 51N 180E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1000 HPA NEAR 19N 112E NW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 11N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 33N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 46N 166E EAST 15 KT.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 51N 180E TO 52N 178W 53N 175W.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 175W TO 47N 176W 42N 180E 40N 177E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 143E TO 42N 149E 42N 155E 40N 162E 36N
169E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 985 HPA AT 37.9N 142.5E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1814 YAGI (1814) 994 HPA AT 20.9N 133.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Okinawa/ Japan/ China/ South Korea: Tropical Storm YAGI 18W 091200Z 20.9N 133.4E, Almost stationary 994 hPa (JMA) – Published 09 Aug 2018 1345Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm YAGI 18W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

jma-logo3

1814-00

TS 1814 (Yagi)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 9 August 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 9 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20¬į55′ (20.9¬į)
E133¬į25′ (133.4¬į)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area S 560 km (300 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23¬į55′ (23.9¬į)
E132¬į05′ (132.1¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27¬į05′ (27.1¬į)
E128¬į20′ (128.3¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31¬į00′ (31.0¬į)
E124¬į25′ (124.4¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 20.6N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 133.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 21.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 26.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 34.6N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 39.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 133.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm YAGI is currently located near 20.6 N 133.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). YAGI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1814 YAGI (1814) 994 HPA
AT 20.9N 133.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 23.9N 132.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.1N 128.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 31.0N 124.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

MEXICO/ East Pacific: HURRICANE JOHN CAT2 08/0900Z 20.0N 111.6W, moving NNW ~10.7kt 972mb (NHC FL) – Published 08 Aug 2018 1400Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE JOHN

John is a category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.

…JOHN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…NHC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

085859_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind


487
WTPZ32 KNHC 080857
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

…JOHN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.0N 111.6W
ABOUT 230 MI…365 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 111.6 West. John is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn back toward
the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later
this morning, with that motion continuing for the next few days.
On the forecast track, John will pass well to the southwest of Baja
California Sur today and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
John is expected to become a tropical storm by late Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated
maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by John will affect portions of the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

994
FZPN03 KNHC 080929
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC WED AUG 8 2018

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI AUG 10.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE JOHN NEAR 20.0N 111.6W 972 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 08
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE…60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM NE…240 NM SE…150 NM SW AND 180 NM
NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 34 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 102W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOHN NEAR 22.8N 114.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS…RADIUS OF 20 TO 33 KT WINDS AND
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JOHN NEAR 25.3N 119.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE…40 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N
OF 18N BETWEEN 110W 1ND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL JOHN NEAR 26.8N 122.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JOHN NEAR 27.0N
125.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JOHN NEAR 27.3N
127.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 KT GUSTS 20 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 14.2N 128.5W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
08 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE AND 20
NM SE QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM E AND 30 NM
W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E AND
90 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 15.5N 130.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE…30 NM SE…0 NM SW AND 20 NM NW
QUADRANTS. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 150 OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 17.3N 130.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE…50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SE
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 19.5N 130.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 21.5N 130.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KRISTY NEAR 23.0N
132.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 24N S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N SE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT IN S SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC WED AUG 8…

.HURRICANE JOHN…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240
NM OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM KRISTY…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 75 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES FROM CENTER.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N
OF 11N WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 107W.

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Storm ILEANA 11E 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W, moving NW ~19.97kt 1002mb (NHC FL) – Updated 07 Aug 2018 0935Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm ILEANA 11E

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

…ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…NHC

 

National Hurricane Center (FL US)

 

 

035
WTPZ31 KNHC 070553
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

…ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.0N 106.0W
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken further due to the
influence of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the
southwest, and the small cyclone should dissipate later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring within portions
of the warning area. However, tropical storm conditions will
rapidly diminish later this morning.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco…with isolated maximum amounts
of 5 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Aug, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ILEANA is currently located near 18.0 N 104.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). ILEANA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTPZ21 KNHC 070232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT……. 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

….
FORECASTER ROBERTS
FZPN02 KWBC 070557 PZB
HSFEPI
T 30N143W 28N147W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ 09N146W 08N167W 11N173W 10N177W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 159W…AND
180 NM N OF TROUGH W OF 158W.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 179W TO
174E…AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 170W ND 176W…AND FROM 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 165W AND 175W.

$$

.FORECASTER ALMANZA. HONOLULU HI.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

China/ East China Sea: Tropical Storm Jongdari 15W 02/0900Z 30.0N 126.3E, moving NW Slow 990hPa (JMA) – Updated 02 Aug 2018 1015Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Jongdari 15W

SHANGHAI – CHINA BEWARE!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. РJTWC

JMA logo

1812-00

TS 1812 (Jongdari)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 2 August 2018

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 2 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N30¬į00′ (30.0¬į)
E126¬į20′ (126.3¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 2 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30¬į50′ (30.8¬į)
E123¬į25′ (123.4¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 3 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31¬į40′ (31.7¬į)
E120¬į40′ (120.7¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N33¬į55′ (33.9¬į)
E116¬į00′ (116.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

CMA logo China

Typhoon Message
20180802 17:21

National Meteorological Center No.2305
Analysis Time: Aug. 02th 09 UTC
Name of TC: JONGDARI
Num. of TC: 1812
Current Location: 29.7¬įN 126.1¬įE
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 23m/sÔľą82.8km/hÔľČ
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 220km SE 150km SW 100km NW 100km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs JONGDARI will moving WNW at speed of 30km/h

 

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 15W (Jongdari) Warning #46 RELOCATED Relocated
Issued at 02/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN35 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING NR 046 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z — NEAR 29.3N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 006 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 126.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 30.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 31.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 32.9N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 126.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON MSI SHOWING EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
CENTER.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression JONGDARI is currently located near 29.7 N 126.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). JONGDARI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

 

Other

DrR J02

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

 

WTJP21 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1812 JONGDARI (1812) 990 HPA
AT 29.3N 126.7E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 30.4N 123.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 31.4N 121.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 33.9N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 020600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC AUG.02 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC AUG.02=
FCST VALID 0600UTC AUG.03=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS JONGDARI 1812(1812) 985HPA AT 29.2N 126.6E
MVG WNW 30KMH AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
220KM NE
150KM SE
100KM SW
100KM NW
AND FCST FOR 030600UTC AT 31.2N 120.8E 992HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUSTS 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER CENTRAL PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND
SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND LAUT SULAWESI=
FCST=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
CYCLONIC WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH HVY RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
VIS MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS VEER W 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO ROUGH LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS
MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
W WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
BECMG CLOUDY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kuril Islands/ Japan/ Russia/ North Pacific: Tropical Storm Wukong 14W 26/0900Z position nr 40.4N 153.5E, moving NNW 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Jul 2018 0950Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Wukong 14W

Kuril Islands (Russia/Japan) Beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 25 FEET.- JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Storm 14W (Wukong) Warning #19
Issued at 26/0900Z

wp1418

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN34 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 39.7N 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.7N 153.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 42.5N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 45.4N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 40.4N 153.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z AND
270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI) WARNINGS
(WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1811-001

 

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TS 1811 (Wukong)
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 26 July 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 26 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N39¬į25′ (39.4¬į)
E154¬į00′ (154.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area E 560 km (300 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N42¬į00′ (42.0¬į)
E152¬į05′ (152.1¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 27 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44¬į50′ (44.8¬į)
E152¬į25′ (152.4¬į)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WWJP27 RJTD 260600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 47N 152E 57N 163E 60N 163E 60N 180E 37N 180E 40N 161E 37N
150E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 47N 137E ENE 10 KT.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 31N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 42N 174E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1812 JONGDARI (1812) 980 HPA AT 22.6N 139.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1811 WUKONG (1811) 996 HPA AT 39.4N 154.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Tropical Storm Ampil 12W 23/1300Z 36.6¬įN 117.6¬įE, moving N at speed of 20km/h 990hPa Inland (CMA) – Updated 23 Jul 2018 1410Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm AMPIL 12W

China beware!

CHINA

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723200000024

Typhoon Message
20180723 21:10

National Meteorological Center No.2175
Analysis Time: Jul. 23th 13 UTC
Name of TC: AMPIL
Num. of TC: 1810
Current Location: 36.6¬įN 117.6¬įE
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 18m/sÔľą64.8km/hÔľČ
Central Pressure: 990hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs AMPIL will moving N at speed of 20km/h
Currently on land

 

1810-00

 

TS 1810 (Ampil)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 23 July 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36¬į30′ (36.5¬į)
E117¬į55′ (117.9¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area E 220 km (120 NM)
W 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N38¬į40′ (38.7¬į)
E117¬į30′ (117.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N41¬į30′ (41.5¬į)
E119¬į50′ (119.8¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 12W (Ampil) Warning #23
Issued at 23/0900Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 024
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 36.5N 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 36.5N 118.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 38.8N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 41.4N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 37.1N 118.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
407 NM WEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W
(SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
(FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AMPIL is currently located near 35.0 N 118.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). AMPIL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Linyi (35.2 N, 118.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Xinpu (34.8 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 994 HPA
AT 36.5N 117.9E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 38.7N 117.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 41.5N 119.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 230600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.23 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.23=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.24=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS AMPIL 1810(1810) 990HPA AT 35.2N 118.6E
MVG NNW 20KMH AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 5.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 40.2N 118.4E 990HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
TD(09) 990HPA AT 20.8N 110.1E MVG NNW 8KMH
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 22.6N 109.1E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 12M/S NEAR CENTER=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 23 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO
4.5M OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVERBOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS
UP TO 2.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18 TO 23M/S
SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT
AND
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
SEA AND AND BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA
STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH TO SLT
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT OVERCAST
BECMG CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BEIBU GULF
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BACK SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT
HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT TO SMOOTH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS BACK E 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ East China Sea: Tropical Depression Thirteen 13W 230900Z position nr 29.0N 123.4E, moving N 22 kt (JTWC) – Published 23 Jul 2018 1255Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen 13W

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 13W (Thirteen) Warning #11
Issued at 23/0900Z

wp1318

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 011
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
230600Z — NEAR 28.2N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 123.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 31.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 34.5N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 38.1N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 123.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
220 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723080000023

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 992 HPA
AT 35.3N 118.7E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 37.4N 117.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 39.7N 118.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 230600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.23 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.23=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.24=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS AMPIL 1810(1810) 990HPA AT 35.2N 118.6E
MVG NNW 20KMH AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 5.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 40.2N 118.4E 990HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
TD(09) 990HPA AT 20.8N 110.1E MVG NNW 8KMH
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 22.6N 109.1E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 12M/S NEAR CENTER=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 23 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO
4.5M OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVERBOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS
UP TO 2.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18 TO 23M/S
SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT
AND
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
SEA AND AND BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA
STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH TO SLT
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT OVERCAST
BECMG CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BEIBU GULF
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BACK SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT
HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT TO SMOOTH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS BACK E 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Tropical Storm SONTINH 11W 230900Z position nr 20.7N 110.1E, moving NNE 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 23 Jul 2018 1125Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm SONTINH 11W

CHINA BEWARE!

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 11W (Son-tinh) Warning #22
Issued at 23/0900Z

wp11183

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 022
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
230600Z — NEAR 20.5N 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 110.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 21.4N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 22.4N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 23.0N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 110.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z
AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

(JMA is the lead agency in this area)

NO DATA AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME

 

CHINA

CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723170000024

HONG KONG (HKO)

Tropical Depression
at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Position: 21.1 N, 110.1 E (about 440 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 55 km/h
The tropical cyclone near Leizhou Peninsula will move in the general direction of Guangxi today and tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 24 July 2018 22.7 N 109.1 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
05:00 HKT 25 July 2018 23.3 N 107.2 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SON-TINH is currently located near 20.5 N 110.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). SON-TINH is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 992 HPA
AT 35.3N 118.7E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 37.4N 117.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 39.7N 118.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

 

Bulletin issued at 18:31 HKT 23/Jul/2018

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 230900 UTC, the tropical depression near Leizhou Peninsula with central pressure 992 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of two one point zero degrees north (21.0 N) one one zero point one degrees east (110.1 E) and is forecast to move north slowly for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 150 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 240900 UTC
Two two point seven degrees north (22.7 N)
One zero nine point one degrees east (109.1 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 242100 UTC
Dissipated over land.


Bulletin issued at 12:30 HKT 23/Jul/2018

Tropical Cyclone Warning

The tropical depression near Taiwan has weakened into an area of low pressure with central pressure 1002 hectopascals. At 230300 UTC, it was centred within 90 nautical miles of two six point six degrees north (26.6 N) one two three point three degrees east (123.3 E).

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 20 knots.

No further warnings on this area of low pressure will be issued by the Hong Kong Observatory unless regeneration takes place.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/Canada/ Atlantic Ocean: Subtropical Storm BERYL 15/0900Z 38.3N 65.2W, moving NE ~2.6kt (NHC FL) – Published 15 Jul 2018 1010Z (GMT/UTC)

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL

…BERYL CRAWLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
GULFSTREAM…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT…NHC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

083625_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind


660
WTNT32 KNHC 150834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

…BERYL CRAWLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
GULFSTREAM…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.3N 65.2W
ABOUT 415 MI…670 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 65.2 West. The storm
has slowed down considerably and is now moving toward the northeast
near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual increase in forward speed toward the
northeast or north-northeast is expected through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today. Beryl should begin to
weaken by this evening when it moves over colder water, and the
cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system
late tonight or early Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

CANADA

track4

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

 

4:05 PM ADT Saturday 14 July 2018
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia

For Sub-tropical Storm Beryl.

The remnants of Beryl have reorganized into a subtropical storm approximately 500 km north of Bermuda this afternoon. The storm is moving northeastward 20 km/h. By Sunday afternoon Beryl should have moved over cooler ocean waters and is expected to diminish in intensity. By early Monday morning Beryl will be a post tropical storm and the remnant low will continue a northeast track towards the Avalon. By early Tuesday morning the Avalon should see some showers from this system. Regular bulletins will begin tomorrow afternoon on this storm if the current forecast remains valid.
At this time no significant tropical impacts are expected in the Maritimes or Newfoundland.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 150833
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018
0900 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 65.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 65.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.1N 64.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.5N 62.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.6N 59.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

CANADA

CanadaMapWarningStatus_e B

Go here:
https://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/ Canada/ Atlantic: Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRIS 12/1500Z 44.4N 57.7W, moving NE ~30.7kt. 987mb (NHC FL) – Updated 12 Jul 2018 1540Z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRIS

…POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS RACING TOWARD CAPE RACE AND THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY……NHC

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Hurricane Chris.

United States

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

 

083502_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

394
WTNT33 KNHC 121459
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018

…POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS RACING TOWARD CAPE RACE AND THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…44.4N 57.7W
ABOUT 290 MI…470 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 275 MI…440 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 36 MPH…57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Chris.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris
was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57
km/h) and this motion is expected to !** [PLACE EXPECTED MOTION INFO
HERE] **!

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. !**
[ADD ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSITY INFO HERE] **!

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Even though Chris is moving away from the United States,
swells generated by the storm will affect portions of the coast from
North Carolina northward to New England during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward along the southern coasts of
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland overnight and into Thursday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters).
These rains may cause flash flooding. Sable Island has received
more than 2.3 inches (60 millimeters) of rainfall during the past
few hours.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Other
information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris can be found in products
issued by Environment Canada/Canadian Hurricane Centre on the
internet at weather.gc.ca/hurricane/.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

CANADAtrack3

 

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

 

8:41 AM ADT Thursday 12 July 2018
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Burin Peninsula – Southern Avalon
Connaigre
St. John’s – Bonavista Peninsula
Terra Nova
Nova Scotia:

Guysborough County
Halifax County – east of Porters Lake
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Lunenburg County
Queens County
Richmond County
Shelburne County
Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
For Tropical Storm Chris.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Chris accelerating northeastward toward Newfoundland. Expected to track across southern Avalon Peninsula this evening as a strong post-tropical storm. Will bring rain, gusty winds, and high waves to southeastern Newfoundland today.

 

1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 a.m. ADT.

Location: Near 43.2 North 58.7 West.

About 585 km southwest of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Northeast at 59 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 985 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Rainfall and wind warnings are in effect for parts of southeastern Newfoundland. A special weather statement is also in effect for waves and possible storm surge impacts.

Chris has continued to accelerate northeastward and has started to weaken It is expected to track near the southern Avalon Peninsula this evening as a post-tropical storm. It will bring heavy rain, strong and gusty winds, heavy pounding surf and elevated coastal water levels to parts of southeastern Newfoundland.

Nova Scotia should be spared any direct impacts from Chris, other than ocean swells along the Atlantic coast beginning later this morning. They will reach 2-3 metres west of Halifax and 3-4 further east, and will gradually diminish tonight and Friday.

a. Wind.

Wind warnings are in effect for the southeastern half of the Avalon Peninsula. This region could see southerly wind gusts up to 100 km/h Thursday evening as Chris passes. Further to the north and west strong and gusty easterly winds are likely ahead of Chris but should remain below warning criteria.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for most of southeastern Newfoundland where up to 80 millimetres of rain is expected. Rain will likely begin over these areas this morning well ahead of Chris but will become heavier later in the day as the centre of the storm makes its closest approach to the island. Rain should taper off quickly tonight as Chris speeds away into the North Atlantic.

Current radar imagery shows easternmost Cape Breton could get brushed by an outer rain band from Chris this morning, but elsewhere in Nova Scotia the likelihood for any rain from Chris is very low.

c. Surge and waves.

High waves, pounding surf and storm surge will be a consideration for parts of southern Newfoundland tonight, especially near high tide this evening. Over the southern Avalon Peninsula, swells of 6 to 8 metres are possible nearest to where Chris makes landfall, giving some storm surge, but mainly heavy pounding surf. Elsewhere, other southern facing coastlines of Newfoundland could see 3 to 5 metres of swells tonight. A special weather statement is in effect for the southern Avalon Peninsula, and the south facing half of the Burin Peninsula.

The Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia will have swell near 2 to 3 metres west of Halifax this morning, and 3 to 4 metres further east, but will gradually diminish tonight and Friday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

In general the strongest winds from Chris will be just south of its track as it moves through Atlantic Canadian waters. For Maritimes waters, storm warnings and gale warnings are in effect for waters closest to Chris’ track. These warning will likely end later today as Chris moves out of the region.

For Newfoundland waters, Storm and gale warnings are in effect for waters near and adjacent to Chris’ track.

Significant wave heights could reach near 10 metres over offshore waters near the track of Chris as it moves through the Canadian marine district.

Forecaster(s): Borgel/Mercer

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2018 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHRIS is currently located near 42.1 N 60.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). CHRIS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
¬†¬†¬†¬†St John’s (47.5 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

United States

WTNT23 KNHC 121456
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018
1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2018

THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 57.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT……. 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 360SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 57.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.4N 59.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 47.7N 52.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 50.7N 44.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 130SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 53.5N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 130SE 110SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 56.5N 26.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 61.6N 18.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 57.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
OTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT
CANADA/CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

 

FZNT01 KWBC 121015
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC THU JUL 12 2018

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
AMERICAN ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 14.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM CHRIS NEAR 42.1N 60.1W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 12
MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 30 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE
QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…130 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 90 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT…300 NM SE QUADRANT…360 NM SW QUADRANT AND 150 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 43N BETWEEN
54W AND 65W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS NEAR 49.0N 48.0W
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE
QUADRANT…110 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N…120 NM E…600 NM S…AND 240 W
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 43N TO 52N BETWEEN
41W AND 55W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS NEAR 54.5N 30.0W
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 420 NM S AND 480 NM W
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 43N TO 55N BETWEEN
35W AND 42W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS NEAR 60.0N 20.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS NEAR 60.5N 16.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 61N53W 1004 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. FROM 57N TO 61N BETWEEN 47W
AND 62W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N40W 999 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E…300 NM S
AND 420 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 54N39W TO 49N50W TO 44N54W AREA
OF S TO SW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 49N TO 53N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W AREA OF SW
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 300 NM S OF A LINE FROM 61N49W TO
57N42W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N66W 1015 MB. FROM 31N TO 39N BETWEEN
63W AND 66W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 46N TO 60N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W AND FROM 43N TO 53N
BETWEEN 43W AND 58W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 480 NM S OF A LINE FROM
55N35W TO 53N42W TO 51N51W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N38W 1034 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N40W 1032 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 47N49W 1030 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N73W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU JUL 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI JUL 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 14.

.WARNINGS.

…CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING…
.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E WINDS 25
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W
AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. FROM 12.5N TO
16N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E
SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W…
INCLUDING GULF OF VENEZUELA…NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO
15.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 78W E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 83W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
FROM 10N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 83.5W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC TROUGH FROM 27N79W TO 30N71W. S OF TROUGH TO 26N BETWEEN
69W AND 74W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH TO SHIFT N OF 30N WITH ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONS N OF AREA. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC FROM 19N TO 25N E OF 36W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 18.5N TO 26N E OF 43W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.

.ATLC 18 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W…INCLUDING
ATLC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

CANADA

CanadaMapWarningStatus_e CHRIS 11

Go here:
https://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ryukyu Islands (esp Miyako and Yaeyama Islands)/ Okinawa/ Amami Islands/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon MARIA 10W 10/1500Z position nr 25.5N 123.2E, moving WNW 15kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jul 2018 1440Z (GMT/UTC)


Typhoon MARIA 10W

MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Ryukyu Islands (esp Miyako and Yaeyama Islands)/ Okinawa/ Amami Islands/ Taiwan/ China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET- JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 10W (Maria) Warning #32
Issued at 10/1500Z

wp1018310w_101200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 25.2N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 124.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 26.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 27.5N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 29.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 30.4N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 123.2E.
TYPHOON 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM EAST OF TAIPEI,
TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

 

 

(JMA is the lead agency in this area)

1808-003

 

>>>> http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 13:45 UTC, 10 July 2018

<Analysis at 13 UTC, 10 July>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25¬į25′ (25.4¬į)
E123¬į50′ (123.8¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
‚Č• 50 kt wind area E 240 km (130 NM)
W 150 km (80 NM)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 14 UTC, 10 July>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25¬į30′ (25.5¬į)
E123¬į30′ (123.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
‚Č• 50 kt wind area E 240 km (130 NM)
W 150 km (80 NM)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26¬į20′ (26.3¬į)
E120¬į30′ (120.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area E 300 km (160 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27¬į10′ (27.2¬į)
E116¬į55′ (116.9¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30¬į50′ (30.8¬į)
E113¬į00′ (113.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

CHINA

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180710200000017

Typhoon Message
20180710 22:03

National Meteorological Center No.1975
Analysis Time: Jul. 10th 14 UTC
Name of TC: MARIA
Num. of TC: 1808
Current Location: 25.5¬įN 123.6¬įE
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 50m/sÔľą180km/hÔľČ
Central Pressure: 940hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 550km SE 450km SW 270km NW 350km
Radius of 50knots Winds: NE 200km SE 150km SW 100km NW 150km
Radius of 64knots Winds: NE 60km SE 60km SW 40km NW 60km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs MARIA will moving WNW at speed of 30km/h

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Typhoon MARIA is currently located near 24.6 N 125.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
¬†¬†¬†¬†Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
¬†¬†¬†¬†T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Nanchang (28.7 N, 115.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Wuhan (30.6 N, 114.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

 

Other

DrR m10

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

Location of Ryukyu Islands( ūüď∑ Uchinanchu/wikimedia)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1808 MARIA (1808) 940 HPA
AT 25.2N 124.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 26.3N 120.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.2N 116.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.8N 113.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWHK82 VHHH 101200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
SEVERE TYPHOON (ST) MARIA (1808):
R OF HURRICANES:60NM.
R OF STORMS:120NM.
R OF GALES:210NM.
SYNOPSIS (101200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SUPER TYPHOON MARIA (1808) HAS WEAKENED INTO A ST. AT
101200UTC, MARIA WITH CENTRAL P 955HPA AND MAX WINDS 90KT
WAS CENTERED WITHIN 30NM OF 25.2N 124.0E AND IS FC TO MOVE
WNW AT ABOUT 16KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FC POS AT 111200UTC: 27.3N, 116.7E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M,10M,14M OVER GALES,STORMS,HURRICANES.
SWELL E TO NE 5-7M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND LUZON STRAIT.
SWELL SE 5-7M OVER EAST CHINA SEA.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FRQ HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 240 NM FROM CENTRE OF MARIA
(1808).
SCT SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES, SEAS NEAR
MALAYSIA.
ISOL SQ SH AND TS OVER N PART OF SCS, GULF OF THAILAND AND
GULF OF TONKIN.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

 

WWCI50 BABJ 100600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.10 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.10=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.11=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
SUPERTY MARIA 1808(1808) 935HPA AT 24.7N 125.6E
MVG WNW 30KMH AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
550KM NE
450KM SE
270KM SW
350KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
200KM NE
150KM SE
100KM SW
150KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NE
50KM SE
40KM SW
70KM NW
AND FCST FOR 110600UTC AT 26.7N 118.6E 982HPA
AND MAX WINDS 28M/S NEAR CENTER=SUMMARY=
SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 22 TO 32M/S SEAS UP TO 6.0M
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M
OVER SEA NEAR CENTRAL OF MARIA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER YELLOW
SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
JAPAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND
MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
RAINSTORM BECMG DOWNPOUR VIS MOD TO POOR=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SLT MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
E WINDS VEER SE 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
CYCLONIC WINDS 29 TO 36M/S GUSTS 32 TO 41M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH DOWNPOUR VIS POOR=
TAIWAN STRAIT
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SW
WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE MOD
HVY RAIN BECMG DOWNPOUR VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
CYCLONIC WINDS 25 TO 32M/S GUSTS 29 TO 36M/S BECMG
S WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH DOWNPOUR VIS POOR TO MOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SLT TO SMOOTH
MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD HVY RAIN
VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
CYCLONIC WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S BECMG
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD DOWNPOUR BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD
MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD DOWNPOUR
BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
MALACCA STRAIT
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH MOD RAIN
VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
W WINDS BACK SW 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD HVY RAIN BECMG RAINSTORM VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Leaving no stone unturned in hurricane preparedness ‚ÄĒ Official blog of the Met Office news team – Reblogged.

With hurricanes developing in the Atlantic Basin, Gavin Iley, Met Office Head of International Crisis Management & Resilience, provides a personal account of how the Met Office works tirelessly to ensure its hurricane advice is ‚Äėuseful, useable and used‚Äô. Earlier this year I met a colleague from the meteorological service on one of the islands¬†[‚Ķ]

via Leaving no stone unturned in hurricane preparedness ‚ÄĒ Official blog of the Met Office news team

Thailand: Cave Rescue – All 12 boys and their football coach have now been rescued, according to Royal Thai Navy Seals. – Updated 10 Jul 2018 1307Z (GMT/UTC)

a0ec670b-0970-407f-aee0-58313508dd6a

(Image: BBC News)

102241977_3e345cc6-b99f-4552-81af-b8638d99a3f1

The ‘Wild Boats Team & Coach pictured at a time before entering the cave (Image: BBC News)

“Divers in northern Thailand have rescued all 13 people who were trapped in a flooded cave system, 17 days after they got trapped underground.

The plight of the 12 boys and their football coach, and the work to free them, gripped the world’s attention.

Four boys and the coach were brought out on Tuesday evening to complete the rescue mission, Thai navy divers said.

The group, a football team, got stuck deep inside the cave on 23 June after heavy rains caused flooding.

Aged between about 11 and 17, they became trapped during an excursion with their coach.

After they were found by divers last week, huddled in darkness on a ledge and cut off from the outside world for nine days, the race began to get them out before the weather deteriorated even further.

The first eight boys to be rescued, on Sunday and Monday, are still in hospital but said to be in good mental and physical health.

They have undergone X-rays and blood tests, and will remain under observation in hospital for at least seven days.

How were they rescued?

A team of 90 expert divers – 40 from Thailand and 50 from overseas – worked in the caves.

They guided the boys and their coach through darkness and submerged passageways towards the mouth of the Tham Luang cave system.

Getting to and from the trapped group was an exhausting round trip, even for experienced divers.

The process included a mixture of walking, wading, climbing and diving along guide ropes.

Wearing full-face masks, which are easier for novice divers than traditional respirators, each boy was accompanied by two divers, who also carried his air supply.

The toughest part was about halfway out at a section named “T-Junction”, which was so tight that the divers had to take off their air tanks to get through.

Beyond that a cavern – called Chamber 3 – was turned into a forward base for the divers.

There the boys could rest before making the last, easier walk out to the entrance. They were then taken to hospital in Chiang Rai.

In an indication of how dangerous the journey was, a former Thai navy diver died in the caves on Friday. Saman Gunan was returning from a mission to provide the group with air tanks when he ran out of oxygen.”


….

Remembering diver Saman Gunan

Petty Officer Saman Gunan, a former Thai navy diver in his late thirties, died on 6 July while helping to re-supply the cave with new air tanks.

He ran out oxygen and lost consciousness.

BBC Thai spoke to his family after his death.

“I really loved him,” his wife Waleeporn Gunan said. “Every day before he left for work, we said we loved each other. At midday, we’d text to see if the other had had lunch.

“I want to tell you honey, you are the hero in my heart, you always were and always will be.” – BBC News

Summary

  1. All 12 members of a Thai youth football team and their coach have been brought safely out of the cave in northern Thailand
  2. The final five members rescued join eight team members taken to hospital on Sunday and Monday and said to be doing well
  3. Each person was pulled through the cave by expert divers
  4. The 12 boys and their coach were trapped by floods more than two weeks ago
  5. One former Navy diver, Petty Officer Saman Gunan, died last week carrying oxygen in the cave ahead of the rescue
  6. The last Navy Seals – three divers and a doctor – are out of the cave, the rescue chief says

Full story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44782132

Live reporting: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/44755093

 

Japan/ South Korea/ Russia: Severe Tropical Storm PRAPIROON 03/1600Z 35.3N 130.4E, moving NE 14kt 975 hPa (JMA) – Updated 03 Jul 2018 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon


Japan and South Korea beware!

Russia be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 25 FEET – JTWC

JMA logo

1807-00

JP WARN P 3

STS 1807 (Prapiroon)
Issued at 16:50 UTC, 3 July 2018

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 3 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N35¬į20′ (35.3¬į)
E130¬į25′ (130.4¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
‚Č• 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Estimate for 17 UTC, 3 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N35¬į30′ (35.5¬į)
E130¬į35′ (130.6¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
‚Č• 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N38¬į00′ (38.0¬į)
E133¬į25′ (133.4¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N40¬į35′ (40.6¬į)
E137¬į00′ (137.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 986 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

 

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Storm 09W (Prapiroon) Warning #21
Issued at 03/1500Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 34.6N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 129.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 37.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 40.1N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 41.6N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 43.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 35.3N 130.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z,
040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jul, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PRAPIROON is currently located near 34.6 N 129.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). PRAPIROON is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

 

Other

 

 

 

DrR P2

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP31 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1807 PRAPIROON (1807) 975 HPA
AT 35.0N 130.2E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 38.0N 133.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 40.6N 137.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Depression CARLOTTA 04E 17/1800Z nr 17.2N 101.6W, moving NW ~6.08kt 1007mb (NHC FL) – Updated 17 Jun 2018 2048Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression CARLOTTA 04E

…CARLOTTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION…

National Hurricane Center (FL US)

181229_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 171803
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018
100 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

…CARLOTTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION…

 

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.2N 101.6W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta
was estimated to be near near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 101.6
West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On
the forecast track, the small core of Carlotta or its remnant should
move inland over southern Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Carlotta could dissipate later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero and Michoacan coasts, including the city of
Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These
rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across
the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

Other

 

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

FZPN02 KWBC 171725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SUN JUN 17 2018

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 19.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 44N155W 996 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 45N155W TO 40N157W TO 33N169W WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO
21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E OF A LINE FROM 52N150W TO
40N158W TO 30N161W…AND S OF 35N BETWEEN 157W AND 166W WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N153W 992 MB. FROM 48N TO 60N BETWEEN
141W AND 151W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 420 NM E AND NE QUADRANTS…WITHIN 240 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…AND WITHIN 360 NM E OF A LINE FROM 49N147W TO
37N150W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N166W 999 MB. N OF 58N BETWEEN 165W AND
173W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 35N TO 54N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 126W AND 133W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 47N TO 54N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.LOW 55N166W 994 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WITHIN 480 NM E AND 360 NM
SE QUADRANTS…AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 54N172W TO
62N164W TO 66N166W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N164W 997 MB. FROM 51N TO 60N BETWEEN
168W AND 172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 42N167W 999 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM S AND 240 NM
W SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 33N165E 1004 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 360 NM N SEMICIRCLE
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 34N174E 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 36N177W 1013 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 38N TO 50N
BETWEEN 140W AND 158W….AND FROM 31N TO 35N BETWEEN 158W AND
163W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 50N BETWEEN 141W AND
149W…FROM 41N TO 45N BETWEEN 156W AND 163W…AND FROM 54N TO
57N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 48N BETWEEN 141W AND
145W…FROM 45N TO 49N BETWEEN 149W AND 155W…FROM 59N TO 64N
BETWEEN 168W AND 170W…AND S OF 34N BETWEEN 176W AND 178E.

.HIGH 46N137W 1029 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N135W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 45N137W 1023 MB.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 58N137W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N136W 1021 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 39N165W 1021 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N163E 1026 MB.

.FORECASTER NOLT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 19.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 17.2N 101.3W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUN 17 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…20 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN AREA
BOUNDED BY 16N98W TO 15N98W TO 15N100W TO 17N102W TO 18N102W TO
17N100W TO 16N98W E WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA NEAR 17.7N 102.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 F.T
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA INLAND NEAR 18.0N
102.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CARLOTTA NEAR 18.3N 102.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N126W TO 30N135W TO 28N139W TO 29N140W
TO 30N140W TO 30N135W TO 30N126W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N131W TO 28N135W TO
28N139W TO 30N140W TO 30N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 02S114W TO 03.4S112W TO 03.4S120W TO
02S117W TO 02S114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 03S118W TO 03.4S117W TO
03.4S120W TO 01S120W TO 03S118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUN 17…

.TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA…NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL WAVE N OF 10N ALONG 93W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 270 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 14N90W TO 08N95W.

.TROUGH FROM 08N131W TO 04N139W…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM
NW OF TROUGH E OF 135W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N73W TO 10N86W TO 15N98W THEN
RESUMES FROM 14N109W TO 09N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N120W
TO 06N127W TO 07N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
03N TO 09N WITHIN 120 NM W OF COAST OF COLOMBIA…WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 116W…WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 123W…WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 131W…AND FROM 03N TO 07N W OF 138W.

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 17 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 18 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 19 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 06N165W MOVING W 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 05N172W TO
08N178E. ASSOCIATED TSTMS INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 06N167W 1011 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 07N154W 1011 MB MB MOVING NW SLOWLY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N162E TO 28N160E MOVING SE SLOWLY. WIND W 20
TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N166E TO 28N163E TO 26N160E.
ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDED
TO 8 FT OR LOWER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N176E TO 27N168E TO 26N160E.

.COLD FRONT APPROACHING FORECAST AREA FROM N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT NEAR 30N164W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N151W TO 27N158W TO 27N164W TO
28N170W.

.RIDGE FROM 30N150W TO 24N161W TO 20N173W TO 20N174E TO 20N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DEVELOPING HIGH NEAR 22N173E 1016 MB. RIDGE
FROM HIGH TO 23N176W TO 24N165W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 24N175E 1018 MB. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO
28N173W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.OTHERWISE SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 30N TO 28N BETWEEN 165W AND 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS SUBSIDED TO 8 FT OR LOWER.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 06N140W TO 08N146W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
180 NM S OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
90 NM N OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE.

.OTHERWISE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 12N TO 06N
BETWEEN 179E AND 175W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM
12N TO 02N BETWEEN 168E AND 148W.

$$

.FORECASTER BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Depression BUD 15/1500Z nr 25.3N 110.0W, moving N ~10.42kt 1002mb (NHC FL) – Updated 15 Jun 2018 1750Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Bud 03E

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL US

143856_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 151436
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Bud Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

…BUD AND ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES…

 

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.3N 110.0W
ABOUT 195 MI…315 KM SSE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM ESE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
from Altata to Huatabampito.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bud was
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 110.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to move inland over
southern Sonora by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Bud is expected to become a remnant low by tonight
and dissipate on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern and eastern Sonora in
northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. An additional 1 to 2
inches of rain are possible in southern portions of Baja California
Sur.

Remnant moisture from Bud is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of
rain with isolated totals of 3 inches across the southwestern U.S.
into the southern and central Rockies through Saturday. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible today along
the coast of mainland Mexico in northern Sinaloa and southern
Sonora states.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of western mainland Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/McElroy

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2018 15:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BUD is currently located near 25.3 N 110.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). BUD is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Los Mochis (25.8 N, 109.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

 

Other

ep201803_5day2

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTPZ23 KNHC 151435
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018
1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 110.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 110.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 110.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN/MCELROY

FZPN02 KWBC 151725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 48N166W 971 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
420 NM S SEMICIRCLE…600 NM N AND 480 NM NW QUADRANTS…AND
WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT FROM 54N153W TO 40N156W TO 30N164W
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N167W 980 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
60N146W TO 40N156W TO 31N163W. WITHIN 480 NM S AND E…AND 540
NM NW QUADRANTS…AND 240 NM E OF THE FRONT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N166W 992 MB. WITHIN 540 NM NW AND 420
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 34N TO 43N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 44N BETWEEN 123W AND 131W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 44N BETWEEN 124W AND 131W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 44N TO 53N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 44N TO 53N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 126W AND 134W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 44N153W 1000 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
54N151W TO LOW TO 31N160W. WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 30 TO
45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 40N168E 998 MB MOVING E 20 KT. FROM 33N TO 47N W OF 173E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N180W 996 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N166W 999 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 37N TO 54N
BETWEEN 136W AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 37N TO 52N BETWEEN 137W AND
156W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 30N TO 43N BETWEEN 169W AND
156W…FROM 37N TO 50N BETWEEN 156W AND 140W…AND FROM 50N TO
57N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

.HIGH 41N141W 1030 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 45N139W 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N137W 1028 MB.

.HIGH 53N139W 1027 MB DRIFTING S.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER NOLT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E NEAR 15.8N 99.7W 1007 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUN 15 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 3 KT. WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FOUR-E NEAR 16.5N 99.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FOUR-E NEAR 17.2N 98.6W. WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD NEAR 25.3N 110.0W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUN 15 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL BUD NEAR 27.2N 109.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 06N131W TO 03.4S92W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01S BETWEEN 105W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S BETWEEN 114W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.18 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE FROM 30N125W TO 28N140W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15…

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD…SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM N
SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E…NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N90W TO 11N93W. IT RESUMES FROM
12N118W TO 08.5N128W. ITCZ FROM 08.5N128W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W
AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 14N
BETWEEN 86W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN
105W AND 118W.

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 15 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 16 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 17 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FRONT 30N165W 28N172W 30N180W MOVING NE 10 KT. SW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT N OF LINE 30N160W 26N170W 30N165W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT MOVED N OF AREA. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 30N162W 28N166W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.FRONT 30N167E 30N160E MOVING E 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N179W 28N175W 30N165E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT MOVED N OF AREA.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT 30N165E 27N160E.

.ITCZ 08N140W 06N170W 08N174E. SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180
NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 150W AND 175W.

.HIGH 23N164E 1014 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. RIDGE 30N151W 23N165W
19N175E THROUGH HIGH TO 22N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 21N163E 1013 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 21N164E 1013 MB.

.SEAS 8 TO 13 FT N OF LINE 30N156W 24N165W 19N180W 30N173E. SEAS
8 FT BOUNDED BY 15N150W 11N140W 08N157W 15N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 11 FT N OF LINE 30N150W 23N160W
30N180W. SEAS 8 FT FROM 16N TO 12N BETWEEN 150W AND 160W
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF LINE 30N155W 26N160W
30N170W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.HONOLULU FORECASTER.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ West Pacific: Tropical Depression GAEMI 08W 151500Z position nr 24.8N 124.3E, moving NE 20kt (JTWC) – Published 1536Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression GAEMI 08W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL US)

Tropical Depression 08W (Gaemi) Warning #06
Issued at 15/1500Z

wp0818

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 24.4N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 055 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 123.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 26.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 27.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 28.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 124.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1806-00

TS 1806 (Gaemi)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 June 2018

Scale
Intensity
Center position N24¬į55′ (24.9¬į)
E123¬į55′ (123.9¬į)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area SE 390 km (210 NM)
NW 170 km (90 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26¬į40′ (26.7¬į)
E126¬į30′ (126.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28¬į00′ (28.0¬į)
E129¬į10′ (129.2¬į)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N30¬į05′ (30.1¬į)
E133¬į30′ (133.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

TAIWAN

No ‚ÄėTyphoon News‚Äô ‚Äď Severe Weather Warnings: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/fifows/index.htm?

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression GAEMI is currently located near 23.2 N 121.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). GAEMI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

Other

wp201808_5day

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 151200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 32N 142E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 32N 142E TO 32N 146E 30N 149E.
COLD FRONT FROM 32N 142E TO 29N 140E 27N 135E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N 135E TO 27N 130E 26N 124E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 141E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 173E 40N 146E 42N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 40N 167E ENE 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 51N 148E SOUTH SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 19N 167E EAST SLOWLY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 167E TO 40N 169E 38N 171E.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 171E TO 34N 175E 31N 179E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 171E TO 33N 170E 29N 164E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 164E TO 29N 156E 30N 149E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1806 GAEMI (1806) 994 HPA AT 24.9N 123.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Tropical Storm SEVEN 07W 141500Z position nr 28.6N 131.1E, moving ENE 35kt (JTWC) – Published 14 Jun 2018 1720Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm SEVEN 07W

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL US)

wp0718

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 27.9N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 065 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 129.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 30.5N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 26 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 32.3N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 131.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH TS 07W IS BEING SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 141201Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND SEVERAL 35 KNOT WIND BARBS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 07W HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES AND IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (50
TO 60 KNOTS). A 140900Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS-SECTION
SHOWS THAT TS 07W IS LOSING ANY REMAINING WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE ALSO INDICATES THAT
TS 07W IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH A WEST TO EAST MOVING TROUGH. TS 07W
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
(EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

TAIWAN

No ‘Typhoon News’ – Severe Weather Warnings: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/fifows/index.htm?

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Jun, 2018 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SEVEN is currently located near 27.9 N 129.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). SEVEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

Other

 

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 141200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 27N 129E SEA AROUND OF OKINAWA MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA
AT 22.5N 119.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 24.4N 122.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 25.3N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 144E 46N 150E
53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 30N 170E 30N 155E 35N 160E 40N
160E 40N 150E 42N 144E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 44N 152E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 38N 162E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 56N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 23N 164E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 54N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 162E TO 36N 166E 33N 170E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 162E TO 36N 162E 34N 160E 32N 156E 28N 151E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 151E TO 27N 148E 26N 143E 27N 137E 28N 133E
27N 129E 26N 127E 25N 122E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Japan/ Philippines/ West Pacific: Tropical Storm MALIKSI/ Domeng (06W) 08/0600Z 18.7N, 126.4E, moving NW 11kt 996 hPa (JMA) – Updated 08 Jun 2018 0843Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm MALIKSI 06W

(Domeng in Philippines)

JMA logo

1805-00 M JMA TRACK

TS 1805 (Maliksi)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 8 June 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 8 June>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N18¬į40′ (18.7¬į)
E126¬į25′ (126.4¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 440 km (240 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20¬į50′ (20.8¬į)
E127¬į00′ (127.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22¬į30′ (22.5¬į)
E128¬į00′ (128.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 10 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25¬į35′ (25.6¬į)
E132¬į10′ (132.2¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Storm warning area SE 390 km (210 NM)
NW 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31¬į10′ (31.2¬į)
E140¬į00′ (140.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)
Storm warning area SE 520 km (280 NM)
NW 480 km (260 NM)

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #7
FOR:Tropical Storm Domeng
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

ISSUED AT:11:00 AM, 08 June 2018

“DOMENG” HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES IN A NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION.

  • The combined effects of ‚ÄúDomeng‚ÄĚ {Maliksi} and the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring moderate to occasional heavy rains over Aurora, Bataan and the regions of Bicol, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA and Western Visayas; scattered rainshowers will prevail over the rest of Luzon and of Visayas today.
  • “DOMENG” is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), which may bring monsoon rains over Metro Manila and the rest of western sections of both Luzon and Visayas this weekend.
  • Residents of the these areas are advised to take appropriate actions against possible flash floods and landslides and coordinate with their local DRRM offices.
  • Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon and of Visayas, and the western seaboard of Southern Luzon.

 

PAGASA Track Satellite Image

 

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “DOMENG” was estimated based on all available data at 655 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (17.8 ¬įN, 127.9 ¬įE)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move North Northeast at 17 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 770 km East of Basco, Batanes(21.1¬įN, 129.3¬įE)
  • 48 Hour(Sunday morning):1,225 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes(24.3¬įN, 133.1¬įE)
  • 72 Hour(Monday morning): 2,030 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(29.4¬įN, 139.5¬įE)

 

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 PM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

 

JTWC

Tropical Storm 06W (Maliksi) Warning #01
Issued at 08/0300Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
071551ZJUN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
080000Z — NEAR 17.6N 127.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 127.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 19.5N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 21.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 23.0N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 24.9N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 29.9N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 36.6N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 127.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND
090300Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 071600).
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (EWINIAR) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31
PGTW 072100).//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jun, 2018 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MALIKSI is currently located near 17.6 N 127.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). MALIKSI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Other

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 080600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 40N 142E
42N 141E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 34N 180E 30N 160E 28N 140E 27N
128E 31N 131E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 40N 135E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 42N 140E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 160E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 992 HPA AT 46N 176E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 34N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 55N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 35N 151E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 22N 161E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 58N 176E ESE 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 49N 160E TO 49N 164E 48N 169E.
COLD FRONT FROM 49N 160E TO 44N 155E 42N 149E.
COLD FRONT FROM 41N 180E TO 36N 170E 33N 164E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 164E TO 30N 150E 32N 140E 33N 133E 30N 126E
27N 118E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1805 MALIKSI (1805) 996 HPA AT 18.7N 126.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1804 EWINIAR (1804) 998 HPA AT 23.0N 112.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 080600

TTT GALE WARNING 14

 

AT 0600 08 JUNE TROPICAL STORM {MALIKSI} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 090600 TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 100600 TWO SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 110600 TWO NINE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE NINE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

East Pacific/ Mexico: CAT3 HURRICANE ALETTA 02E 08/0600Z near 15.6N 110.5W, moving W ~5.2kt 957mb Intensifying (NHC FL) – Published 08 Jun 2018 0735z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Aletta 02E

…ALETTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE…There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect….NHC

Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions expected parts of coast of west-central mainland Mexico and the west coast of Baja California Sur

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL US

055806_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 080556
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Aletta Special Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018

…ALETTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE…

 

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT…0600 UTC...INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.6N 110.5W
ABOUT 470 MI…760 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI…360 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Aletta was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 110.5 West. Aletta is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west-northwestward or
northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Aletta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
expected through the day today. Weakening is forecast to begin by
Saturday, with Aletta likely weakening to a tropical storm on
Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Aletta will begin to affect portions of
the coast of west-central mainland Mexico and the west coast of
Baja California Sur later today and will continue through the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Other

ep201802_5day1

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0555

WTPZ22 KNHC 080555 RRB
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

FZPN02 KWBC 080525
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI JUN 08 2018

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC JUN 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 10.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 46N173E 990 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 360 NM N…780 NM
E…900 NM SE…AND 300 NM SW QUADRANTS…AND WITHIN 240 NM SE
OF A FRONT FROM 39N174E TO 34N160E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN WEAKENING LOW 46N177W
998 MB AND NEW LOW 48N167W 992 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE…600 NM
SE…960 NM SW…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS OF NEW LOW AND WITHIN
420 NM SW QUADRANT OF WEAKENING LOW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N164W 994 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NE…1200 NM
SE…420 NM SW…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
8 TO 15 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 52N142W 992 MB DRIFTING E. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 360 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM E…780 NM S…AND 720 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N140W 1004 MB. WITHIN 660 NM S AND 240
NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N137W 1012 MB. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

…GALE WARNING…
.OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 35N124W TO 30N121W AREA
OF NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W AREA OF
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 38N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W AREA OF
NW TO N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 63N BETWEEN 167W AND 170W AREA OF N
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 65N BETWEEN 168W AND 170W AREA OF NW TO N
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NW AND W OF A LINE FROM 65N166W TO 63N170W
AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 55N135W TO 49N128W AREA
OF SE TO S WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N161E 1001 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 50N159E 1009 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM
AND 420 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 35N TO 48N W OF 169E
AREA OF SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 120 NM OF
39N128W AND FROM 38N TO 48N BETWEEN 170W AND 172E AND OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 44N TO 48N W OF 162E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 90 NM OF 38N125W AND FROM 37N
TO 48N BETWEEN 156W AND 173W AND FROM 42N TO 47N W OF 169E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
47N152W TO 40N160W AND FROM 41N TO 49N W OF 175E.

.HIGH 32N159W 1025 MB MOVING NE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N149W 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N142W 1030 MB.

.HIGH 30N136W 1025 MB DRIFTING W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N167E 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N177E 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI JUN 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT JUN 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 10.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.HURRICANE ALETTA NEAR 15.6N 110.3W 973 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 08
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E
SEMICIRCLE…120 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE…270 NM SE…210 SW AND
180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALETTA NEAR 16.6N 111.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NE…
210 SE…180 NM SW AND 210 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE…330 NM SE…210 SW AND 240 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 105W AND 112W AND FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALETTA NEAR 17.8N 113.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLES. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 240 NM E AND 180 W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE…360 NM SE…240 SW AND 270 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 94W AND 113W AND FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALETTA NEAR 19.1N 115.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA NEAR 20.0N 117.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ALETTA NEAR 20.5N
119.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 04N134W TO 03.4S100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 07N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE WITH ALETTA…S OF 24N
BETWEEN 100W AND 135W AND ALSO FROM 14N TO 25N W OF 135W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N98W 1008 MB.
WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN
SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
13N101W 1005 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8
FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC FRI JUN 8…

.HURRICANE ALETTA…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM NE AND
180 NM SE QUADRANTS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 10N100W, RESUMES FROM 10N116W TO
06N125W. ITCZ FROM 06N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC JUN 08 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 09 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 10 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROUGH FROM 24N176E TO 17N175E TO 13N173E MOVING W SLOWLY.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 17N TO 22N
BETWEEN 175E AND 179E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 23N173E TO 16N172E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 08N178E TO 05N176E TO 03N173E MOVING W 10 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 173E AND
178E…AND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 177W AND 179W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 09N172E TO 04N167E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAK TROUGH FROM 10N167E TO 06N164E.

.RIDGE FROM 30N171W TO 27N175E TO 24N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.12 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 147W AND 151W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 09N TO 18N E OF
154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 22N E OF
164W…AND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 160W AND 163W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 148W
AND 154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 150W
AND 160W…AND FROM 12N TO 20N E OF 150W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 06N140W TO 07N145W TO 06N158W TO 07N171W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 168W.

$$

.FORECASTER KINEL. HONOLULU HI.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (05W) 06/0900Z position nr 21.8N 112.0E, moving NNE 7kt/~8mph (JTWC) – Updated 07 Jun 2018 1542Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Ewiniar (05W)

China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 05W (Ewiniar) Warning #22
Issued at 07/1500Z

 

wp05185

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071200Z — NEAR 21.6N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 112.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 22.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 22.7N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 23.1N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 112.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

JMA logo

(JMA is the lead agency for this area)

1804-001

TS 1804 (Ewiniar)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 7 June 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 7 June>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N21¬į30′ (21.5¬į)
E112¬į00′ (112.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 8 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22¬į25′ (22.4¬į)
E112¬į10′ (112.2¬į)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 June>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23¬į10′ (23.2¬į)
E112¬į25′ (112.4¬į)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

CHINA (HKO)

Tropical Storm EWINIAR
at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Position: 21.7 N, 111.9 E (about 240 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 75 km/h
Ewiniar will linger over western Guangdong today and tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
20:00 HKT 08 June 2018 23.0 N 111.9 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 09 June 2018 23.0 N 112.6 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EWINIAR is currently located near 21.6 N 112.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). EWINIAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Other

Dr R E 7

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 071200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 17.0N 127.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 19.1N 128.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 20.6N 128.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 132E 35N 140E
40N 142E 42N 141E 46N 151E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N
150E 28N 130E 32N 132E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 45N 127E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 49N 156E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 37N 159E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 996 HPA AT 44N 169E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 35N 125E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 35N 143E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 58N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 25N 161E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 57N 172E SE 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 49N 156E TO 49N 160E 48N 165E.
COLD FRONT FROM 49N 156E TO 46N 150E 42N 143E.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 169E TO 44N 172E 44N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 176E TO 43N 180E 40N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 176E TO 40N 172E 38N 168E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 168E TO 37N 164E 37N 159E 33N 150E 31N 140E
31N 130E 27N 120E 25N 112E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1804 EWINIAR (1804) 998 HPA AT 21.5N 112.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

HKO Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Bulletin issued at 22:15 HKT 07/Jun/2018

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 071200 UTC, Tropical Storm Ewiniar (1804) with central pressure 990 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of two one point six degrees north (21.6 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move north or north-northeast slowly for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 40 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 150 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 081200 UTC
Two three point zero degrees north (23.0 N)
One one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 091200 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

US (Indiana): Subtropical Depression Alberto 30/1500Z near 38.7N 87.4W, moving NNE 17Mph/28Kph 997Mb (NWS WPC) ‚Äď Updated 30 May 2018 1615z (GMT/UTC)

Subtropical Depression Alberto

…CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES…NWS WPC

Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of western
Kentucky as well as from extreme northeast Georgia to western North
Carolina. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for portions of the
southern Appalachians and Lower Ohio Valley.

alberto_rainfall

 

 

 

 

000
WTNT31 KWNH 301445
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number 22
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL012018
1000 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

…CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…38.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 80 MI…129 KM SW OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 24 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of western
Kentucky as well as from extreme northeast Georgia to western North
Carolina. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for portions of the
southern Appalachians and Lower Ohio Valley.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Alberto
was located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 87.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h) and this motion is expected to accelerate today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system will transition to an extratropical wave cyclone
as the remnant circulation comes under the influence of an upper
level trough moving across the Great Lakes and southern Canada
through Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
higher amounts, will be possible northward along the
Illinois/Indiana border into the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan. Flash flooding and rapid water rises on creeks and streams
will remain a possibility across these areas.

WIND: A few wind gusts may approach tropical-storm force (34 knots
or 39 mph) across western and central Indiana today.

 

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 38.7N 87.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 40.9N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 44.8N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
36H 01/0000Z 48.9N 78.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

Other

Alberto Still a Potent Rainmaker

Drenching rains and widespread flood threats continue as Alberto heads toward Tennessee and Kentucky.
Up-To-The-Minute Coverage

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

N/A INLAND

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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