Australia (WA)/ Indonesia/ Timor Leste: Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTHREE 23S 05/1500Z near 11.9 125.9E, moving W at ~8.63kt (BoM) – Published 05 Apr 2019 1715Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTHREE 23S, 97S

Warning zone: Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, not including Derby..

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

AUSTRALIA

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 11:22 pm AWST Friday 5 April 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 10.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop off the north Kimberley coast early Saturday morning. Small risk of a period of gales along the northwest Kimberley coast.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, not including Derby..

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South, 125.9 degrees East , 280 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and 425 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay .
Movement: west at 16 kilometres per hour .

The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone early Saturday morning north of the Kimberley coast. The system will track towards the west southwest and is likely to intensify further over the weekend. While the most likely track keeps the system well off the WA coast, there remains a slight risk that the cyclone could approach the west Pilbara coast next week.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in exposed coastal parts between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island during Saturday if the system tracks further south than expected. GALES may then extend to exposed coastal parts from Cockatoo Island to northern parts of the Dampier Peninsula on Saturday evening.

Tides may be higher than expected between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island on Saturday.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts (effective as of 1800 05 APR 2019):

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, not including Derby, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.emergency.wa.gov.au

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 11 pm April 5 tropical low 11.9S 125.9E 45
+6hr 5 am April 6 1 12.1S 125.1E 70
+12hr 11 am April 6 1 12.3S 124.2E 90
+18hr 5 pm April 6 1 12.6S 123.2E 115
+24hr 11 pm April 6 2 12.8S 122.2E 135
+36hr 11 am April 7 2 13.3S 120.0E 175
+48hr 11 pm April 7 3 14.1S 118.1E 210
+60hr 11 am April 8 3 15.1S 116.6E 245
+72hr 11 pm April 8 3 16.0S 115.6E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

INDONESIA

IDJ21030
METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS COUNCIL
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta

INFORMATION BUILTIN TROPICAL CYCLE

Issued by TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA
At: 22:11 WIB 05/04/2019

97S Tropical Depression

Conditions on 05/04/2019 at 19:00 WIB:
Position: 11.9LS, 126.3BT (about 345 km southeast of Kupang)
Motion Direction: Southwest, speed of 10 knots (18 km / h) moves away from Indonesian territory
Speed
Maximum Wind: 30 knots (55 km / h)

24 hour prediction, 06/04/2019 at 19:00 WIB:
Position: 12.8LS, 122.7BT (around 310 km south-west of Kupang)
Motion Direction: Southwest moves away from Indonesian territory
Speed
Maximum Wind: 50 knots (95 km / h)

48 hour prediction, 07/04/2019 at 19:00 WIB:
Position: 13.9LS, 118.6BT
Motion Direction: Southwest moves away from Indonesian territory
Speed
Maximum Wind: 60 knots (110 km / h)

72 hour prediction, 08/04/2019 at 19:00 WIB:
Position: 15.9LS, 115.8BT
Motion Direction: Southwest moves away from Indonesian territory
Speed
Maximum Wind: 75 knots (140 km / h)

IMPACT ON WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
Tropical Cyclone Seed 97S has an impact on the weather in Indonesia in the form of:
– Rain with moderate intensity in Southeast Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku and Papua.
– Strong winds in the Maluku region, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara and Papua.
– Sea waves with a height of 2.5 – 4.0 m South of P. Sawu waters, waters south of Kupang.
– Sea waves with an altitude of 4.0 – 6.0 m. The waters south of P. Rotte, Timor Sea south of NTT, the southern Indian Ocean of NTT.

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Saturday

IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 22:11 WIB 05/04/2019

Depresi Tropis 97S

Kondisi tanggal 05/04/2019 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 11.9LS, 126.3BT (sekitar 345 km sebelah tenggara Kupang)
Arah Gerak : Barat Daya, kecepatan 10 knots (18 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 06/04/2019 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 12.8LS, 122.7BT (sekitar 310 km sebelah selatan barat daya Kupang)
Arah Gerak : Barat Daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 07/04/2019 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 13.9LS, 118.6BT
Arah Gerak : Barat Daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 60 knots (110 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 08/04/2019 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 15.9LS, 115.8BT
Arah Gerak : Barat Daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 75 knots (140 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Bibit Siklon Tropis 97S memberikan dampak terhadap cuaca di Indonesia berupa:
– Hujan dengan intensitas sedang – lebat di wilayah Sulawesi Tenggara, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Maluku dan Papua.
– Angin Kencang di wilayah Maluku, Nusa Tenggara Barat, Nusa Tenggara Timur dan Papua.
– Gelombang laut dengan ketinggian 2.5 – 4.0 m Perairan selatan P. Sawu, Perairan selatan Kupang.
– Gelombang laut dengan ketinggian 4.0 – 6.0 m Perairan selatan P. Rotte, Laut Timor selatan NTT, Samudra Hindia selatan NTT.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 5 Apr, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TWENTYTHREE is currently located near 11.8 S 126.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). TWENTYTHREE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Indonesia
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nemperola (10.9 S, 122.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Kalumburu (14.2 S, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Twentythree) Warning #03
Issued at 05/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
051200Z — NEAR 11.8S 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 126.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 12.1S 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 12.6S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 13.0S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 13.8S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 15.5S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 16.8S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 17.9S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 126.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050955Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BEING OBSCURED
BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND APRF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). DESPITE EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ARE MARGINAL OVERALL THANKS TO HIGH (25-
30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU
48, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE TC ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THERE IS A CHANCE VWS WILL REMAIN
STRONG, SUPPRESSING INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT, BUT SPREAD REMAINS HIGH (ABOUT 468 NM BETWEEN ECMWF AND
NAVGEM AT TAU 120). ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
WHILE NAVGEM DEPICTS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENSION OF THE STR AXIS BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

 MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:12S126E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1250UTC 5 APRIL 2019

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal nine south (11.9S)
longitude one hundred and twenty six decimal three east (126.3E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1004 hPa

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 1200 UTC 06
April.

From 1800 UTC 5 April winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE
quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

From 1200 UTC 06 April winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre
with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 06 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.3 south 124.7 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 06 April: Within 75 nautical miles of 12.8 south 122.7 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 05 April 2019.

WEATHER PERTH

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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Rodrigues (Mauritius)/ Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA 22S 26/1500Z positon near 19.6S 65.2E, moving ESE 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Mar 2019 1813Z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA (13, 22S)

Joaninha is a Category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 38 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Joaninha) Warning #19
Issued at 26/1500Z

sh2219-1

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
261200Z — NEAR 19.5S 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 65.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 19.9S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 20.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 20.7S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 21.3S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 23.2S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 25.6S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 27.7S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A 15-NM WIDE EYE AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE MSI AND
AN EYE FEATURE IN A 261146Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 22S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE
TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 96,
INCREASED BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 22S TO BEGIN
TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 100 KTS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 45 KTS BY TAU 120.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD (OVER 450 NM BY TAU 12) IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF AND GALWEM BEING THE WESTERNMOST AND
EASTERNMOST MEMBERS, RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) FOR FINAL WARNING
ON THAT SYSTEM (WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

 

Bulletin du 26 mars à 16H23 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JOANINHA.Vents maximaux (moyenn√©s sur 10 minutes) estim√©s sur mer: 185 km/h.Rafales maximales estim√©es sur mer: 260 km/h.Pression estim√©e au centre: 942 hPa.Position le 26 mars √† 16 heures locales R√©union: 19.5 Sud / 64.8 Est.Distance des c√ītes r√©unionnaises: 955 km au secteur: ESTDistance de Mayotte: 2230 km au secteur: EST-SUD-ESTD√©placement: EST-SUD-EST, √† 11 km/h.Ce bulletin est √† pr√©sent termin√©.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activit√© Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les pr√©visions sur ce syst√®me

 

Bulletin of March 26 at 16:23 local Réunion:

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOANINHA.Vents maximum (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 185 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 260 km / h. Estimated pressure in the center: 942 hPa. Position on March 26 at 4 pm Réunion: 19.5 South / 64.8 East.Distance from the Reunion coast: 955 km to the area: EASTMayotte: 2230 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTHEAST: EAST-SOUTHEAST, 11 km /h.This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see menu on the right) for forecasts on this system

 

METEOSAT Imagery

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2019 0:00 GMT

 

Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA is currently located near 19.1 S 63.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). JOANINHA is a category 3 (Edit: Now CAT 4) storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. JOANINHA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Scale) or above winds

 

Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 4 (major)

130-156 mph

113-136 kt

209-251 km/h

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO20 FMEE 261225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 64.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
20.6 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Tropical Storm IBA 26/1200Z near 20.7S 037.7W (estimated), moving S ~05kt 1002hpa (BNHC Brazil data) – Published 26 Mar 2019 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm IBA

A rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic off the southeast coast of Brazil

GOES 16 Image

2019-03-26 16:10:19 UTC

GOES16 IBA.png

xxx

 

Centro de

Hidrografia da Marinha

Marinha do Brasil

Warnings

SPECIAL WARNING

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC ‚Äď MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

AREA ALFA

WARNING NR 207/2019
ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – SUN – 24/MAR/2019
AREA ALFA STARTING AT 250000 UTC. WAVES FM SW/SE 3.0/4.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 213/2019
HIGH SURF  WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
HIGH SURF BETWEEN CHU√ć (RS) AND TRAMANDA√ć (RS) STARTING AT 261200 UTC. WAVES FROM SE 2.5 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 271200 UTC.

AREA DELTA

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC ‚Äď MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

WARNING NR 214/2019
ROUGH/VERY ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA N OF 23S AND E OF 040W STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WAVES FM E/NE 3.0/5.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 216/2019
HIGH SURF  WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
HIGH SURF BETWEEN MARATA√ćZES (ES) AND LINHARES (ES) STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WAVES FROM SE 2.5 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 218/2019
SEVERE GALE/STORM WARNING
ISSUED AT 2200 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA N OF 23S STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WIND SE/NE E OF 037W AND SW/SE BETWEEN 037W AND 040W FORCE 9/10 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 271200 UTC.
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 212/2019.

WARNING NR 219/2019
ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – TUE – 26/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA E OF 039W STARTING AT 270000 UTC. WAVES FM SE/NE BECOMING SW/SE 3.0/4.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 281200 UTC.

WARNING NR 220/2019
NEAR GALE/SEVERE GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – TUE – 26/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA E OF 038W STARTING AT 271200 UTC. WIND SW/SE FORCE 7/9 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 281200 UTC.

AREA ECHO

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC ‚Äď MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA ‚Äď ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

WARNING NR 215/2019
NEAR GALE/GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA ECHO S OF 18S STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WIND NE/NW FORCE 7/8 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 261800 UTC.

FQST02 SBBR 260230
1 31 05 02 12 20

 

Page 1
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK AND SUPPLY
National Institute of Meteorology – INMET
Monumental Axis РVia S1 РSouthwest Р70680-900 РBrasília-DF РPhone: + (55) (61) 2102-4602 РFax: + (55) (61) 2102-4620
NOTE 2: TROPICAL STORM “IBA”
Bra Sília, March 25, 2019
The Brazilian Navy, through the Center for Hydrography of the Navy (CHM) and in collaboration
with the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and the Center for Forecasting Weather and Studies
(CPTEC / INPE), participates that Tropical Storm “Iba” is located on the high seas, with
center in the geographical position 19,9¬ļS 037,3¬ļW, at the height of the coast referring to the city of Linhares
(ES), extending between the southern coast of the state of Bahia and northern Espírito Santo, and presented
maximum intensity of the winds of 101 km / h (55 knots) at 15:00 on the 25th, in a circle of 185
Km around the position of its center, therefore only in the maritime region. Your displacement
continues predominantly to the South, with a slight component to the West until the 25th
night, when it is expected that it will move with a light component to the East until the 26th
night, away from the coast. Its effects can continue to be felt on the southern coast of the state
Bahia and Espírito Santo until the 26th at night, when it is expected that it will not influence the coast
south of Bahia and also influence the northern coast of Rio de Janeiro. Will be issued new
update until the end of day 26.
Strong winds are expected between the northern coast of the state of Rio de Janeiro and the south coast
of Bahia, reaching 101 km / h (55 knots) on the high seas in the east sector of the cyclone, and 61 km / h (33
us) by the coast, between the 25th at night and the 26th at night. There is forecast of thick sea to very thick
on the same stretch of coastline, with wave heights between 3.0 and 5.0 meters at sea, between day 25
in the evening and in the evening at night. There is a possibility of hangover reaching the coast between Vitoria
(ES) and Caravelas (BA), with waves up to 2,5 meters, until the 25th at night, and between Marataízes (ES)
and Linhares (ES), between the 25th at night and the 26th at night. The severe weather condition caused
by this system will occur mainly on the high seas, associated with heavy rain.

Page 2
Monumental Axis РVia S1 РSouthwest Р70680-900 РBrasília-DF РPhone: + (55) (61) 2102-4602 РFax: + (55) (61) 2102-4620
The Brazilian Navy maintains all the bad weather warnings in force at the electronic address
The Brazilian Navy, INMET and CPTEC / INPE will accompany the formation and performance of this
system in the next few days and updates will be posted on the sites:
Facebook, under “@servicometeorologicomb” and “@inpe.cptec”. The information can also be
accessed through the “Bulletin to the Sea” application, which is available for download at
Internet, both for the Android system and for IOS, developed in partnership between the Navy
of Brazil and the Institute Towards the Sea (RUMAR)

 

Other Sources

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA): Tropical Cyclone VERONICA 25/1800Z near 20.5S 116.4E, moving WSW ~4.8kt. (BoM) – Updated 25 Mar 2019 1920Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA 21S

Tropical Cyclone Veronica, near Dampier, weakening as it moves steadily westwards.

Warning zone: Dampier to Mardie, including the Burrup Peninsula.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Roebourne to Dampier, including Karratha.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 11 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Veronica

Issued at 2:50 am AWST Tuesday 26 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 69.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Veronica, near Dampier, weakening as it moves steadily westwards.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Dampier to Mardie, including the Burrup Peninsula.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Roebourne to Dampier, including Karratha.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Veronica at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.5 degrees South, 116.4 degrees East , 35 kilometres west northwest of Dampier and 55 kilometres west northwest of Karratha .
Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Veronica is a Category 1 system and is weakening as it moves towards the west southwest. It is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity in the next three to six hours.

Hazards:

Widespread, very heavy rainfall conducive to MAJOR FLOODING is likely over the central Pilbara coast and adjacent inland areas, easing gradually during Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected to result in significant river rises, areas of flooding and hazardous road conditions. Some roads may become impassable and some communities may become isolated. Flood Warnings and Watches are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring at exposed coastal locations near Dampier. Gales could extend west towards Mardie in the next three to six hours before the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near communities between Mardie and Whim Creek including Whim Creek, Point Samson, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier need to remain in shelter until the all clear is given.

ALL CLEAR: All Clear with caution for people between the communities of Whim Creek and Port Hedland (not including Whim Creek or Mardie) and people in or near communities of the inland Pilbara, Barrow Island, Pannawonica and surrounding areas are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am March 26 1 20.5S 116.4E 30
+6hr 8 am March 26 tropical low 20.7S 115.7E 50
+12hr 2 pm March 26 tropical low 21.0S 114.9E 70
+18hr 8 pm March 26 tropical low 21.3S 114.1E 95
+24hr 2 am March 27 tropical low 21.5S 113.3E 120
+36hr 2 pm March 27 tropical low 21.8S 112.1E 155
+48hr 2 am March 28 tropical low 21.8S 111.1E 190
+60hr 2 pm March 28 tropical low 21.3S 109.8E 230
+72hr 2 am March 29 tropical low 20.6S 108.4E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Tuesday

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2019 6:00 GMT

 

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 25 Mar, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VERONICA is currently located near 20.4 S 116.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). VERONICA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
    Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Veronica) Warning #24
Issued at 25/1500Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 20.4S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 116.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 20.8S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 21.4S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 22.1S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, BETWEEN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AIRPORT AND OTHER LOCAL STATIONS
APPROXIMATELY 20-25 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH REPORT 33-35 KTS OF
SUSTAINED WINDS, AND MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KTS). TC 21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WITH HIGH VWS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID WEAKENING
AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION, HIGH VWS, AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH OF LEARMONTH, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED
EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH. OVERALL,
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 100NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:20S117E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1235UTC 25 MARCH 2019

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Veronica was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal five south (20.5S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal nine east (116.9E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 989 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 26
March and to 25 knots by 1200 UTC 26 March.

Winds above 34 knots within 45 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.8 south 115.4 east near
the coast
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 21.4 south 113.8 east near
the coast
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 March 2019.

WEATHER PERTH
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (QLD/NT): Severe Tropical Cyclone TREVOR 20P 22/1500Z position near 15.2S 138.5E, moving WSW 04kt (JTWC) Intensifying! – Updated 22 Mar 2019 1637Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor 20P

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to Australian Category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning (BoM)

Trevor is currently a Category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a Category 3 storm on the same scale by 23 Mar, 0:00 (TSR data)

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba (BoM)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Trevor) Warning #20
Issued at 22/1500Z

sh2019

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221200Z — NEAR 15.0S 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 138.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 15.9S 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 17.1S 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 18.4S 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 20.0S 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD A
PINHOLE BUT PROMINENT EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT STACKED DIRECTLY OVER A
COMPACT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS TO T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW, ADRM, AND
KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA JUST AFTER TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 36, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD DEEPER INTO THE AUSTRALIAN
OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
GOC WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM UP TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor

Issued at 11:34 pm AEST Friday 22 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 43.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor at 10:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South, 138.9 degrees East , 185 kilometres north of Mornington Is and 305 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is forecast to cross the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border Saturday morning with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts to 275 km/h near the cyclone centre as it approaches and crosses the coast.

Coastal residents between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING during Friday night and Saturday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a STORM TIDE is also expected between the NT/QLD border and Burketown. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

GALES, with gusts to 120 km/h are occuring on Mornington Island, Sweers Island and expected to develop on the mainland coast between Port Roper in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland and on Groote Eylandt in the next few hours. GALES are expected to extend inland into the eastern Carpentaria, northern Barkly Districts and the northwest Gulf Country on Saturday morning. Inland locations which may be affected on Saturday and early Sunday include Doomadgee, Creswell Downs, Cape Crawford, Robinson River, McArthur River, Wollogorang and Brunette Downs.

HEAVY RAINFALL is likely to cause significant stream rises and localised flooding in the eastern Carpentaria District from early Saturday. A Flood Watch has been issued for Carpentaria Coastal Rivers and the Barkly in the Northern Territory.

HEAVY RAINFALL will also develop over the western Gulf Country in Queensland as the cyclone moves inland tomorrow. Flood Warnings are current in Queensland for the Daintree and Mossman Rivers, as well as a broader Flood Watch for catchments north of Cairns to Kowanyama, the western Gulf Country, and the Channel Country.

Recommended Action:

People between the NT/QLD border and Burketown, and in areas extending inland to Doomadgee, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place, especially securing boats and property.

– Information is available from your local government.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises:

Residents from Alyangula to NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt and Borroloola

-Prepare you home and yard for severe cyclone;

-Follow direction and advice of local emergency services;

communities under Watch:

-Prepare for wet and windy conditions and consider the situation when the cyclone travels far inland;

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au. Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 22 3 15.0S 138.9E 30
+6hr 4 am March 23 4 15.4S 138.3E 50
+12hr 10 am March 23 4 15.9S 137.6E 70
+18hr 4 pm March 23 3 16.4S 136.8E 95
+24hr 10 pm March 23 2 17.0S 136.1E 120
+36hr 10 am March 24 tropical low 18.6S 135.1E 155
+48hr 10 pm March 24 tropical low 20.1S 135.1E 190
+60hr 10 am March 25 tropical low 21.3S 135.8E 230
+72hr 10 pm March 25 tropical low 21.7S 137.3E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:30 am AEST Saturday

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor

Issued at 10:58 pm ACST Friday 22 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 43.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor at 9:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South, 138.9 degrees East , 185 kilometres north of Mornington Is and 305 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is forecast to cross the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border Saturday morning with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts to 275 km/h near the cyclone centre as it approaches and crosses the coast.

Coastal residents between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING during Friday night and Saturday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a STORM TIDE is also expected between the NT/QLD border and Burketown. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

GALES, with gusts to 120 km/h are occuring on Mornington Island, Sweers Island and expected to develop on the mainland coast between Port Roper in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland and on Groote Eylandt in the next few hours. GALES are expected to extend inland into the eastern Carpentaria, northern Barkly Districts and the northwest Gulf Country on Saturday morning. Inland locations which may be affected on Saturday and early Sunday include Doomadgee, Creswell Downs, Cape Crawford, Robinson River, McArthur River, Wollogorang and Brunette Downs.

HEAVY RAINFALL is likely to cause significant stream rises and localised flooding in the eastern Carpentaria District from early Saturday. A Flood Watch has been issued for Carpentaria Coastal Rivers and the Barkly in the Northern Territory.

HEAVY RAINFALL will also develop over the western Gulf Country in Queensland as the cyclone moves inland tomorrow. Flood Warnings are current in Queensland for the Daintree and Mossman Rivers, as well as a broader Flood Watch for catchments north of Cairns to Kowanyama, the western Gulf Country, and the Channel Country.

Recommended Action:

People between the NT/QLD border and Burketown, and in areas extending inland to Doomadgee, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place, especially securing boats and property.

– Information is available from your local government.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises:

Residents from Alyangula to NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt and Borroloola

-Prepare you home and yard for severe cyclone;

-Follow direction and advice of local emergency services;

communities under Watch:

-Prepare for wet and windy conditions and consider the situation when the cyclone travels far inland;

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au. Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Details:

Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 22 3 15.0S 138.9E 30
+6hr 4 am March 23 4 15.4S 138.3E 50
+12hr 10 am March 23 4 15.9S 137.6E 70
+18hr 4 pm March 23 3 16.4S 136.8E 95
+24hr 10 pm March 23 2 17.0S 136.1E 120
+36hr 10 am March 24 tropical low 18.6S 135.1E 155
+48hr 10 pm March 24 tropical low 20.1S 135.1E 190
+60hr 10 am March 25 tropical low 21.3S 135.8E 230
+72hr 10 pm March 25 tropical low 21.7S 137.3E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am ACST Saturday

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA is currently located near 18.1 S 116.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 95 kts (109 mph). VERONICA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. VERONICA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Hurricane Scale) or above winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:15S139E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1334UTC 22 MARCH 2019

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal zero south (15.0S)
longitude one hundred and thirty eight decimal nine east (138.9E)
Recent movement : southwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 962 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 100 knots by 0000 UTC
23 March.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.9 south 137.6 east
Central pressure 944 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 17.0 south 136.1 east (over
land)
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 22 March 2019.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Palau/ Philippines/ WestPacific: Tropical Depression THREE 03W 16/1500Z position near 7.3N 137.0E, moving W 12kt (JTWC) – Published 15 Mar 2019 1912Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression THREE (03W)

“CHEDENG” in Philippines

Palau and Philippines beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET _ JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

wp0319

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 7.4N 137.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N 137.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 7.2N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 7.0N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 6.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 6.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 6.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 137.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
EAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

PAGASA logoPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Cyclone Advisory # 2

Tropical Depression

Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 March 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11 AM Tomorrow)
Synopsis

The Tropical Depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) continues to move generally westward over the sea in western Caroline Islands

Location of Center  (8:00 AM today)

The center of the Tropical Depression was estimated based on all available data at 1,505 km East of Mindanao (OUTSIDE PAR)(07.8¬įN,140.0¬įE)

Maximum Sustained Winds

45 km/h near the center

Gustiness

Up to 60 km/h

Movement

West at 20 km/h

tca
Forecast Positions and Intensities
Tomorrow morning
17 March 2019
970 km East of Mindanao () (OUTSIDE PAR) (07.6¬įN, 135.1¬įE)
Tropical Depression
Monday morning
18 March 2019
485 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (07.3¬įN, 130.6¬įE)
Tropical Depression
Tuesday morning
19 March 2019
In the vicinity of Manay, Davao Oriental (07.2¬įN, 126.5¬įE)
Tropical Depression
The Tropical Depression may enter the PAR between late evening tonight and tomorrow morning. Once inside the PAR, it will be named “CHEDENG”. Scattered to at times widespread heavy rains may be experienced over parts of Mindanao on Monday and Tuesday due to this weather disturbance. Residents in these areas, especially those living in areas at high risk of flooding and landslides, and the concerned disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to continue monitoring for updates. This weather disturbance may make landfall over the eastern coast of Davao Oriental between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. However, there remains a possibility that this Tropical Depression will weaken into a Low Pressure Area before coming onshore.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to monitor for the next update to be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast at 4 PM today and 4 AM tomorrow. The next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 40N 152E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 152E TO 40N 154E 40N 155E.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 155E TO 37N 160E 35N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 155E TO 37N 156E 30N 152E 25N 145E 23N 141E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 6 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 42N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 44N 168E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 1010 HPA AT 44N 145E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK EAST CHINA SEA
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 170E
47N 180E 35N 180E 30N 170E 30N 150E 37N 156E 40N 150E 40N 143E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 41N 126E SE 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 56N 146E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 51N 167E EAST 25 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 59N 179E ESE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 137E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 28N 125E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 32N 173E ESE 25 KT.
REMARKS.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: Crew rescued from French fishing vessel, La Fanette, off Lands End – Published 15 Mar 2019 1600z (GMT/UTC)

Six crew from a fishing vessel in distress were airlifted from their disabled vessel off Lands End in atrocious weather conditions over night on 12th March.

 

HM Coastguard was alerted at around 10pm on Tuesday night to the 24 metre French registered fishing vessel, La Fanette which had suffered engine failure. Another fishing vessel went to assist and HM Coastguard requested the launch of Sennen Cove RNLI lifeboat. Despite atrocious weather, Sennen Cove lifeboat launched but due to 5-6 metre waves on scene and storm force winds, it was impossible for either the fishing vessel or the lifeboat to establish a tow with La Fanette. Penlee RNLI all weather lifeboat also attended.

The six crew on board were airlifted from the fishing vessel by Newquay coastguard rescue helicopter.

Speaking after this morning‚Äôs incredible rescue, Captain Sharky Finn from Newquay coastguard helicopter said: ‚ÄėThis is definitely one of the most challenging jobs we‚Äôve seen at Newquay. We were flying into a force 8 gale with 20ft high waves swirling beneath us and we could clearly see the fishing vessel disappearing beneath the swell as we approached.

‚ÄėWe had the support of RNLI Sennen Cove on scene who had tried to establish a tow line but were unable to do so because of the severe weather conditions.

‚ÄėWe tried a variety of different winching positions as the fishing vessel pitched and rolled violently underneath us before lowering a hi-line and then our winchman to the bow. The only way we could do this was turn the helicopter 90 degrees out of winds which meant we were effectively flying sideways. Needless to say, it was very challenging deck; it stretched the capabilities of both the crew and the aircraft. However, despite this pressure we were able to take our time and safely recovered all six crewmates and our winchman to the aircraft before returning to the Newquay base. We‚Äôre grateful for the support of the Newquay coastguard rescue team and the Newlyn seaman‚Äôs mission who met us when we returned.‚Äô

Athough weather conditions are still quite rough due to Storm Gareth the sister vessel ‚ÄėFaradet‚Äô has successfully established a tow with the ‚ÄėLa Fanette‚Äô and it is now safely under tow proceeding to rendezvous with a French tug on route from Brest.

There has been no pollution reported however HM Coastguard will continue to monitor the vessel whilst it’s in UK waters.

Statement from Sennen Cove Lifeboat Station

“Wednesday 13th March
The lifeboat launched just after midnight to assist the French trawler La Fanette, disabled, with 6 persons on board, some 10 miles west-northwest of Sennen Cove.
The lifeboat arrived with the trawler an hour later in severe conditions with a swell peaking near 20ft (roughly a two-storey house) and winds gusting to over 70mph.
Another trawler had attempted to pass a tow without success. After careful consideration the lifeboat crew decided that the risk of incurring damage and / or injuries to the crew in attempting to pass a tow – and subsequently attempting to tow the trawler – was too great, and the lifeboat stood by the vessel.
The rate of drift would have put the trawler ashore in roughly three hours. With this in mind, the vessel`s crew deployed their trawling gear and warps, which dramatically reduced the rate of drift and stabilised the situation.
Having consulted within their organisation at the highest level; also with counter-pollution authorities, the trawler`s owners and insurers, the Coastguard advised that the crew would be evacuated by helicopter.
In what the lifeboat crew described as a brilliant piece of flying, the 6 crewmen were evacuated by the coastguard helicopter – the operation has been widely described elsewhere on facebook and other media.
Penlee lifeboat had also been launched around 0330 to provide further cover to the overall operation, and endured a very poor passage around the Runnelstone and The Longships.
With the trawler`s crew safe, the lifeboats were released roughly around 0500 and both lifeboats proceeded to Newlyn, as conditions were way too poor for recovery at Sennen Cove.
The trawler was left anchored by her fishing gear. She dragged this over a few miles and was eventually taken in tow in slightly improved conditions by her sister trawler later in the afternoon and towed back to France.

Whilst this station traditionally does not seek publicity and is happy just to `get on with it`, working out of one of the most hazardous locations in the country, this event must not be left to pass without heaping huge praise on our crew. The conditions on Wednesday morning were very likely the worst that Sennen Cove Lifeboat has launched into since the `Julian Paul` job in 1994 – and may very well have been more severe than that night.
Wednesday`s crew … Ollie George; Richard Brown; Dan Shannon; Kirstan Gorvin; Jason Woodward; Nick Hichens; Tom Nicholas … did a superb job. Each and every one of you should be hugely proud – you are a great credit both to the Station and the RNLI.”

 

Mozambique/ Zimbabwe: Intense Tropical Cyclone IDAI 18S 141500Z position near 19.9S 35.9E, moving W 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 14 Mar 2019 1742Z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone IDAI (11,18S)

IDAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 18S (Idai) Warning #22
Issued at 14/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTXS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 19.9S 36.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 36.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 19.7S 34.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 19.3S 33.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 18.8S 31.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 18.3S 30.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 35.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 141129Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT A 45NM ROUND EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO 5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW DESPITE THE WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. SST VALUES (27-28C) HAVE
COOLED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 12 BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT
DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVERLAND. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 12, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

METEO FRANCE  La Réunion

 

Bulletin of March 14 at 16:12 local Réunion:

INTENSE IDAI TROPICAL CYCLONE. Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 185 km / h. Estimated pressure in the center: 955 hPa. Position March 14 at 16:00 local Meeting: 19.9 South / 36.2 East.Distance of the Reunion coast: 1980 km to the sector: WESTDistance from Mayotte: 1230 km to the sector: SOUTH-WESTMove: WEST, 15 km / h.This bulletin is now completed.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see right menu) for predictions on this system.

Bulletin du 14 mars à 16H12 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE IDAI.Vents maximaux (moyenn√©s sur 10 minutes) estim√©s sur mer: 165 km/h.Rafales maximales estim√©es sur mer: 185 km/h.Pression estim√©e au centre: 955 hPa.Position le 14 mars √† 16 heures locales R√©union: 19.9 Sud / 36.2 Est.Distance des c√ītes r√©unionnaises: 1980 km au secteur: OUESTDistance de Mayotte: 1230 km au secteur: SUD-OUESTD√©placement: OUEST, √† 15 km/h.Ce bulletin est √† pr√©sent termin√©.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activit√© Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les pr√©visions sur ce syst√®me.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Mar, 2019 12:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone IDAI is currently located near 19.9 S 36.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). IDAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. IDAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mozambique
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zimbabwe
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Machece (19.2 S, 35.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beira (19.8 S, 34.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nova Sofala (20.1 S, 34.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Chimoio (19.1 S, 33.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Nova Mambone (21.0 S, 35.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chinde (18.8 S, 36.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Inhassore (21.5 S, 35.1 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Quelimane (17.9 S, 36.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO24 FMEE 141214
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 36.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 32.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South-West Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone HALEH(10,17S) 04/1800Z 19.2S 72.4E, moving SSW 06kt (948hpa at 1200Z)(RSMC La R√©union) – Updated 04 Mar 2019 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone HALEH (10,17S)

HALEH is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43 FEET – JTWC

 

 

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

trajectoire

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT РRSMC La Réunion

Bulletin of 04 March at 16:10 Réunion:

TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE HALEH. Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 240 km / h. Estimated pressure at the center: 948 hPa. Position March 04 at 16:00 local Réunion: 18.6 South / 72.7 East.Distance from the Reunion coast: 1785 km to the sector: ESTDistance from Mayotte: 3010 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EASTLocation: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, 13 km /h.This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see menu on the right) for forecasts on this system

WTIO31 FMEE 041252 CMRS / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF THE RéunionCOUNT OF ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 13/10 / 201820191.

A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 04/03/2019: IN A RADIUS OF 20 NM AROUND 18.6 S / 72.7 E (EIGHTEENTH DEGREES SIX SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVENTY TWO DEGREES SEAS EAST) DISPLACEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5 / 5.5 / D 1.0 / 12 H4.A CENTER PRESSURE: 948 HPA5.WIND MAX (MEDIUM / 10 NM): 90 MAXIMUM WINDS KTRAYON (RVM): 28 KM6.A WIND EXTENSION BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KW SE: 280 SE: 430 S: 430 NO: 19034 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 13048 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 9064 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 507.A COAST / DIAM FIRST ISOBARE CLOSED: 1001 HPA / 400 KM8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: PROFONDE1.B FORECAST: 12H: 05/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E , WIND MAX = 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE24H: 05/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 095 KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE36H: 06/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, WIND MAX = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE48H: 06/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIN = 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL60H: 07/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIN = 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE72H: 07/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIN = 060 KT, STRONG TROPICAL STORM2.B FUTURE TREND: 96H: 08/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND = 050 KT, STRONG TROPICAL STORM120H: 09/03/2019 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, LOW PRESSURE POST-TROPICAL.C COMMENTS:
T = CI = 5.5 OVER 6 HOURS, CLOUDY CONFIGURATION HAS REMAINED WELL THAN WITH WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SOUTH AREA. THIS WEAKNESS INDICATES A DVORAK ANALYSIS LIMITING THE CI TO 5.5. 1130UTC MICROWAVE DATA LEAVE THIS WEAKNESS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION.THE SHORTLY EXPECTED FORECAST FOR A SHORTLY EXPECTED TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY MORE TRAJECTORY TO THE WEST THAN INITIALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PUSH OF A NEW RIDGE THAT IS SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE TALWEG PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH, THIS RIDGE WILL REPEATLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST, FOSTERING A MORE SOUTHLY TRACK FROM THURSDAY / FRIDAY. AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AWARE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE SUCCESSFUL TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW BEFORE THE ALTITUDE TALWEG THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A GOOD POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL. FROM WEDNESDAY, HALEH WILL LOCATE UNDER A MODERN VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN KNOW A SLOW WEAKENING. FROM THURSDAY WEAKNESS SHOULD BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT

Bulletin du 04 mars à 16H10 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE HALEH.Vents maximaux (moyenn√©s sur 10 minutes) estim√©s sur mer: 165 km/h.Rafales maximales estim√©es sur mer: 240 km/h.Pression estim√©e au centre: 948 hPa.Position le 04 mars √† 16 heures locales R√©union: 18.6 Sud / 72.7 Est.Distance des c√ītes r√©unionnaises: 1785 km au secteur: ESTDistance de Mayotte: 3010 km au secteur: EST-SUD-ESTD√©placement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, √† 13 km/h.Ce bulletin est √† pr√©sent termin√©.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activit√© Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les pr√©visions sur ce syst√®me

WTIO31 FMEE 041252 CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNIONBULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/201820191.

A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (HALEH) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/03/2019 :DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES SEPT EST)DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KTRAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):28 KT NE: 280 SE: 430 SO: 430 NO: 19034 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 13048 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 9064 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 507.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 400 KM8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE1.B PREVISIONS:12H: 05/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE24H: 05/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE36H: 06/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE48H: 06/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL60H: 07/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL72H: 07/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:96H: 08/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE120H: 09/03/2019 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5DURANT LES 6 HEURES PASSEES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL S’EST MAINTENUE BIEN QUE PRESENTANT UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST A SUD. CETTE FAIBLESSE INDUIT UNE ANALYSE DE DVORAK LIMITANT LE CI A 5.5. LES DONNES MICRO-ONDES DE 1130UTC LAISSENT SUPPOSER DE CETTE FAIBLESSE N’EST QUE TEMPORAIRE ET QUE LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE HALEH DEVRAIT CONTINUER SA LENTE INTENSIFICATION.LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU A COURTE ECHEANCE, A L’EXCEPTION D’UNE TRAJECTOIRE LEGEREMENT PLUS A L’OUEST QU’INITIALEMENT SOUS L’EFFET DE LA POUSSEE D’UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE QUI VIENT SE GLISSER PAR LE SUD-OUEST. AVEC LE PASSAGE DU TALWEG BIEN AU SUD, CETTE DORSALE VA DE NOUVEAU FAIBLIR ET SE DECALER A L’EST, FAVORISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD A PARTIR DE JEUDI/VENDREDI. EN FIN D’ECHEANCES, LA TRAJECTOIRE EST PREVUE S’ACCELERER.LE SYSTEME CONNAIT ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES POUR POURSUIVRE SA LENTE INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DEVRAIT RESTER FAIBLE A L’AVANT DU TALWEG D’ALTITUDE QUI CONTINUE DE FOURNIR UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D’ALTITUDE PAR UN BON CANAL POLAIRE D’EVACUATION. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HALEH VA SE LOCALISER SOUS UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE DE NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAITRE UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, L’AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS SIGNIFICATIF AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN HAUSSE ET UN CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Haleh) Warning #10
Issued at 04/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 18.7S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 72.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 19.6S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 20.6S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 21.6S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 22.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 26.1S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 30.0S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 34.8S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 25-30 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST SIX HOURS AND THE CLOUD FIELD HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SYMMETRIC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE MSI LOOP
AND AN EYE FEATURE IN A 041130Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17S WILL TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AROUND TAU 96, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS TC 17S ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THROUGH
TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE AND THE
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN AT 100 KTS OR GREATER THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AFTER TAU 48, A COMBINATION OF DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, INCREASED VWS,
AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN, FALLING TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TC 17S
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
LIES EAST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF
NAVGEM, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE BULK OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO20 FMEE 041805
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
21.3 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

FQIO26 FIMP 041245

2:31:08:11:00

PAN PAN

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII (S) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS ISSUED ON MONDAY 04 MARCH 2019 AT 1245 UTC.

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH.

HALEH HAS INTENSIFIED INTO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

AT 04/1200UTC INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE

948 HPA WAS CENTERED WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E

EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN

DEGREES EAST).

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 07 KT

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 160 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTE

RN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS AT 1200 UTC THIS MONDAY 04 MARCH 2019.

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 05S 56S, 07S 65E, 09S 73E.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 948 HPA NEAR 18.6S AND 72.7E. MOVEMENT

SOUTH SOUTH WEST 07 KNOTS.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 04S 87E, 05S 91E, 07S 95E.

WAVE NEAR 09S 57E.

HIGH 1023 HPA NEAR 40S 54E.

HIGH 1035 HPA NEAR 40S 103E.

PART 3: AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS VALID UP TO TUESDAY 05 MARCH

2019 AT 1200 UTC.

NORTH EAST 8/1 AND EXTREME NORTH WEST 8/2: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF

PART 1.

REMAINING 8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 20-25 IN SOUTH EAST. SOUTH

EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 10-20 IN NORTH WEST. EAST SOUTH

EASTERLY BACKING TO NORTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH WEST. SEA ROUGH

BECOMING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH TOWARDS ITC ‘HALEH’. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN

EAST, ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY GOOD BECOMING MODERATE

IN SHOWERS.

REMAINING 8/2: EASTERLY TO EAST NORTH EASTERLY 20-25 IN NORTH.

EASTERLY 20 IN SOUTH, LOCALLY GUSTING 25 IN SOUTH WEST. SEA ROUGH

BECOMING VERY ROUGH IN NORTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTOR

S MAINLY IN NORTH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS, BECOMING POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

SOUTH EAST 8/3: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

REMAINING 8/3: SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH WEST.

SOUTHERLY VEERING TO WEST NORTH WESTERLY 10-20 ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY

GUSTING 25 IN NORTH EAST. SEA ROUGH BECOMING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN

SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN EAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

VISIBILITY GOOD IN WEST BECOMING MODERATE TO POOR IN EAST.

8/4: NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 20-25 IN EXTREME NORTH WEST VEERING TO

NORTH NORTH EASTERLY 25 IN SOUTH WEST. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH

EASTERLY 15-20 IN EXTREME EAST BACKING TO NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN

CENTRAL PART. SEA ROUGH IN WEST AND SOUTH EAST, MODERATE ELSEWHERE.

LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH

THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN WEST. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING

POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/5: NORTHERLY TO NORTH WESTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. NORTH WESTERLY TO

WESTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN

SOUTH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

8/6: NORTHERLY 10-15 IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. VARIABLE 05-10 IN

REMAINING WEST. SOUTHERLY 05 IN SOUTH EAST VEERING TO WESTERLY 10-15

ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

S. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/7: VARIABLE 05 IN SOUTH EAST. NORTHERLY TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 05

IN NORTH EAST. NORTHERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 05-10 IN WEST. SEA

MODERATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY GOOD.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

ITC ‘HALEH’ IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTH SOUTH WESTERLY

DIRECTION WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED

IN 8/1.

END=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Fiji/ Tonga/ South Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone POLA 16P 271500Z position nr 21.0S 178.0W. moving SSW 09kt (JTWC) – Published 27 Feb 2019 1900Z (GMT/UTC)

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA 16P

POLA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and Intensity Category 3 storm on the local Fiji scale

DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU AS TC POLA IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ONO-I-LAU TONIGHT – RSMC Nadi

Fiji and Tonga beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 27 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Pola) Warning #07
Issued at 27/1500Z

sh1619

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 20.6S 177.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 177.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 22.1S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 23.9S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 25.7S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 27.1S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 28.0S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 270916Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
16P IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO
25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 16P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE THROUGH TAU 48. SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL) WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION WITH TC 16P REACHING 90 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS AND WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TC 16P EASTWARD BY TAU 72 AND
ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
AGREEMENT BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone POLA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 153 issued 1631 UTC Wednesday 27 February 2019

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone POLA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 pm February 27 3 20.8S 177.9W 55
+6hr 9 pm February 27 3 21.6S 178.2W 85
+12hr 3 am February 28 3 22.3S 178.5W 110
+18hr 9 am February 28 3 23.2S 178.7W 140
+24hr 3 pm February 28 3 24.0S 178.9W 165
+36hr 3 am March 1 3 25.6S 179.0W 225
+48hr 3 pm March 1 3 26.9S 178.6W 285
+60hr 3 am March 2 2 27.7S 177.4W 375
+72hr 3 pm March 2 2 28.1S 175.5W 465

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 271334 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 972HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 177.8W AT
271200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND CONTINUING TO WRAP ONTO
LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW REMAINS
GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 250HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDED CENTER IN WHITE GIVES A DT=5.0,
MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO FT CONSTRAINTS. THUS YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 21.9S 178.4W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 23.5S 178.9W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 25.1S 179.1W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 26.5S 178.9W MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

HE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON POLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 272000 UTC.
Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 4:28am on Thursday the 28th of February 2019

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE LAU AND LOMAIVITI
GROUP.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 969HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8
SOUTH 177.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 KILOMETRES EAST OF ONO-I-LAU AND ABOUT 230
KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KABARA AT 3AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 130 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS
TO 185 KM/HR. THE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
140 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 195 KM/HR BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KM/HR AND THE CENTRE IS THE CLOSEST TO
ONO-I-LAU.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 190 KILOMETRES
SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU AT 3PM TODAY AND ABOUT 370 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU
AT 3AM TOMORROW.

FOR VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS
EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SPEED OF 45 TO 55 KM/HR, GUSTING TO 80
KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI
CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, FINE APART FROM AFTERNOON OR EVENING
SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN LAU WATERS: EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS.
FOR KORO SEA AND NORTHERN LAU WATERS: SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS: SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC POLA WILL BE ISSUED AT 7.30AM
TOMORROW OR EARLIER.

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICEGOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF FIJIMEDIA RELEASE No.324pm, Wednesday,27thFebruary2019
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU AS TC POLA IS FORECASTEDTO PASS CLOSE TO ONO-I-LAU TONIGHT
At3pm this afternoon, TC Pola was located about 200kilometreseast-southeast of Lakeba and 200 kilometres northeast of Ono-i-Lau. TC Polaismovingsouth-southwest at 22km/hr, and should pass close to Ono-i-Lau tonight.
On theprojected track, TC Pola is expected to be located about 130 kilometres southeastof Ono-i-Lau at 3am tomorrow and about 300kilometres southof Ono-i-Lau at 3pmtomorrow.
For Vatoa andOno-i-Lau: Expect damaging gale force winds with average speeds up to 65 km/hr and momentary gusts to 90km/hr. Periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms is expected over these areas. Sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas of Vatoa and Ono-i-Lau due to damaging heavy swells.The effect of winds can cause damages to temporary sheds and weak structures, break tree branches, cause loose objects to fly, and uproot shallow rooted crops.
For the rest of the Lau and Lomaiviti Group: Expect fresh to strong southerly winds with speed of 45 to 55 km/hr, gusting to 80 km/hr. Periods of rain, heavy at times and a few thunderstorms is anticipated over these areas.
For the rest of Fiji: Expect cloudy periods with occasional showers and possible thunderstorms over the eastern parts of the larger islands. Elsewhere, expect fine weather apart from afternoon or evening showers. In anticipation of this, the following alert and warnings are currently in force:A ‚ÄúHeavy Rain Alert‚ÄĚ is now in force for Lomaiviti Group, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands.A ‚ÄúHeavy Rain Warning‚ÄĚ remains in force for the Lau and Lomaiviti Group. A ‚ÄúGale Warning‚ÄĚ is in force for Vatoa and Ono-i-Lau. A ‚ÄúStrong Wind Warning‚ÄĚ remains in force for the rest of the Lau and Lomaiviti Group. For Southern Lau Waters:
Mariners can expect gale force winds up to 45 knots, gusting to 65 knots with high seas. Conditions are unsafe for sea activities.Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equippedvessels.For Koro Sea and Northern Lau Waters: Expect southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots, gusting to 40 knots with rough to very rough seas. Small craft operators are advised to exercise caution while venturing out into these waters.

For the rest of Fiji Waters: Expect southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots with moderate to rough seas.Localised heavy falls may leadto flash flooding of low lying areas. Therefore, those living in low lying and flood prone areas as well as landslide prone areas are advised to remain alert and take appropriate precaution if and when necessary.Members of the public are requested to remain updated with the latest weather information and take alerts and warnings seriously.For more details and the latest on weather, please contact the National Weather Forecasting Centre on 6736006, 9905376 or visit the Fiji Meteorological Service’s website, http://www.met.gov.fj. You can also visit the Fiji Meteorological Service official Facebook page for latest updates. Misaeli Funaki (Mr.)DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 27 Feb, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone POLA is currently located near 20.6 S 177.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). POLA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. POLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
¬†¬†¬†¬†Nuku’ alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (SSHWC) or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WHPS01 NFFN 271200
HURRICANE WARNING 151 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 271307 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 972HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4 SOUTH 177.8
WEST AT 271200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.4S 177.8W at 271200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS BY
280000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.9S 178.4W AT 280000 UTC
AND NEAR 23.5S 178.9W AT 281200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 150.

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Guam/ Northern Mariana Islands/ Micronesia/ West Pacific: Typhoon WUTIP 02W 21/1500Z 7.4N 148.3E, moving WNW ~6.95kt (NWS Guam) – Updated 21 Feb 2019 1625Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON WUTIP 02W

…TYPHOON WUTIP CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY…

Wutip is a storm equivalent to Category 2 on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a Category 3 on same scale by 23 Feb, 0:00

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Satawal in Yap State and
for Puluwat in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch remain in effect for
Faraulep in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for Ulul in Chuuk
State.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan in the Mariana Islands and Woleai in Yap State.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 35 FEET – JTWC

NWS GUAM

errortrack1-2

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 211507
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Wutip (02W) Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP022019
107 AM ChST Fri Feb 22 2019

…TYPHOON WUTIP CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Satawal in Yap State and
for Puluwat in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch remain in effect for
Faraulep in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for Ulul in Chuuk
State.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan in the Mariana Islands and Woleai in Yap State.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
Location…7.4N 148.3E

About 55 miles west-northwest of Puluwat
About 85 miles east of Satawal
About 125 miles southwest of Ulul
About 240 miles west of Chuuk
About 270 miles east-southeast of Faraulep
About 300 miles east of Woleai
About 480 miles south-southeast of Guam
About 510 miles south-southeast of Rota
About 555 miles south-southeast of Tinian
About 560 miles south-southeast of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds…100 mph
Present movement…west-northwest…295 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Wutip was
located near Latitude 7.4 degrees North and Longitude
148.3 degrees East. Wutip is moving west-northwest at 8 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with an
increase in forward speed over the next 24 hours. It is expected
to pass southwest of the Mariana Islands late Saturday night and
early Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100 mph. Wutip is
forecast to intensify through Saturday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
35 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 150 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Ziobro

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 211010
HLSPQ1

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON WUTIP (02W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
810 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…TYPHOON WUTIP CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFIES…

.NEW INFORMATION…
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS…EASTERN YAP STATE AND CHUUK STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS…
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE AND
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM…ROTA…TINIAN
AND SAIPAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION…
AT 7 PM CHST…THE CENTER OF TYPHOON WUTIP (02W) WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 7.2N…LONGITUDE 148.8E. THIS WAS ABOUT 510 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-NORTHWEST. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 85 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW…
TYPHOON WUTIP IS WEST OF CHUUK LAGOON THIS EVENING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT. THAT
WOULD TAKE IT ACROSS EASTERN YAP STATE AND THEN APPROACHING THE
MARIANA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE…
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-211815-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
810 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS ON THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA. CHECK YOUR TYPHOON SHUTTERS AND MAKE SURE THEY ARE IN
WORKABLE CONDITIONS. CLEAR DRAINAGE AND STORM DRAINS AROUND THE
HOUSE. AS TYPHOON WUTIP PASSES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM ON SATURDAY
EVENING…DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

&&

…WINDS…
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

…STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE…
COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET TONIGHT WILL START BUILDING HIGHER ON
FRIDAY…REACHING 10 TO 12…AND UP TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN AND FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$

…PULUWAT…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY IN STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES.
TYPHOON FORCE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING. ALL BOATS SHOULD
REMAIN SECURED.

…WIND INFORMATION…
TYPHOON FORCE EAST WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY DAY BREAK.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE 20 TO 30 FEET THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 16 TO 20 FEET BY MIDNIGHT…THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE FURTHER TO 10 TO
15 FEET ON FRIDAY. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS LIKELY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

$$

…ULUL…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY IN STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALL BOATS SHOULD REMAIN
SECURED.

…WIND INFORMATION…
DAMAGING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT DAMAGING LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN.

$$

…SATAWAL…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY
IN STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM SHORE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND
WILL INCREASE TO TYPHOON FORCE SOON. ALL BOATS SHOULD REMAIN SECURED.

…WIND INFORMATION…
DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO
TYPHOON FORCE OF 70 TO 90 MPH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FEET WILL BUILD TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY LATE FRIDAY. INUNDATION OF
2 TO 4 FEET IS LIKELY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN.

$$

…FARAULEP…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS
EVENING. LOCATE STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES AND STORE FOOD
AND WATER. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING…AND
DANGEROUS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALL
BOATS MUST RETURN TO SHORE BY THIS EVENING.

…WIND INFORMATION…
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING
DAMAGING LEVELS OF 40 TO 55 MPH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 90 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL STEADILY BUILD AND REACH 12 TO 15
FEET ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 20 FT FRIDAY EVENING. INUNDATION OF
1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

…WOLEAI…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATE STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES
AND STORE FOOD AND WATER. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL BOATS SHOULD RETURN TO SHORE BY TONIGHT.

…WIND INFORMATION…
NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY REACH DAMAGING LEVELS OF 35 TO 45 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO WEST AND DECREASE ON SATURDAY.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD TONIGHT…REACHING 12 TO 15
FEET FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

SIMPSON

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 02W (Wutip) Warning #10
Issued at 21/1500Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 7.1N 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1N 148.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 8.3N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 9.7N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 11.0N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 12.3N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 13.9N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 15.6N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 17.8N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 148.3E.
TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Feb, 2019 12:00 GMT

Typhoon WUTIP is currently located near 7.1 N 148.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). WUTIP is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. WUTIP is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP31 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1902 WUTIP (1902) 970 HPA
AT 07.2N 148.4E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 08.6N 146.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 10.2N 144.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

==========================================================================================================

000
WHGM70 PGUM 210548
MWWGUM

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
348 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST…

.FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS TYPHOON WUTIP APPROACHES THE
WATERS.

PMZ151>154-212000-
/O.CON.PGUM.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190227T0800Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
348 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY…
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT…

* WINDS…NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS TYPHOON
WUTIP PASSES SOUTH OF GUAM.

* WAVES/SEAS…SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL THEN BUILD AS TYPHOON WUTIP MOVES PAST SOUTH OF
GUAM. COMBINED SEAS COULD REACH 20 FEET OVER GUAM AND ROTA WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WAVE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS…SHOULD AVOID SAILING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Vanuatu: Tropical Cyclone OMA 15P 171500Z position 16.5S 164.2E, moving S 05kt (JTWC) – Published 17 Feb 2019 1540Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone OMA 15P

New Caledonia and Vanuatu beware!

OMA expected to become a storm equivalent to Category 1 on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by 18 Feb, 12:00 UTC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 26 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 15P (Oma) Warning #23
Issued at 17/1500Z

sh1519

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 16.3S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 164.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 18.4S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 19.8S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 20.9S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 22.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 25.8S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 30.3S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC OMA HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED ITS EXPANSIVE
FEEDER BANDS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A
LARGE, RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC
IN THE 171034Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28
CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC OMA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS ECMWF THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

logoimage

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone OMA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 100 issued 1314 UTC Sunday 17 February 2019

65660

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone OMA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm February 17 2 16.1S 164.2E 185
+6hr 6 pm February 17 2 16.6S 164.1E 215
+12hr 12 am February 18 2 17.2S 163.9E 240
+18hr 6 am February 18 2 17.9S 163.7E 270
+24hr 12 pm February 18 2 18.5S 163.4E 295
+36hr 12 am February 19 2 19.8S 162.8E 355
+48hr 12 pm February 19 2 20.9S 162.4E 415
+60hr 12 am February 20 1 21.9S 162.0E 505
+72hr 12 pm February 20 1 22.9S 161.8E 590

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 171343 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 984HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 164.2E AT 171200 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OMA IN THE LAST 3-6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN
A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.
SYSTEM REMAIN SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS
DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, YIELDING T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 17.2S 163.9E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 18.5S 163.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 19.8S 162.8E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 20.9S 162.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 172000 UTC.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Feb, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm OMA is currently located near 16.1 S 164.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). OMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taktak (14.9 S, 166.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Luganville (15.5 S, 167.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E)
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Onetar (14.3 S, 167.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Vipaka (13.1 S, 166.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
¬†¬†¬†¬†Noum’ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
    Foreas (13.9 S, 167.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Other

DocR Oma

(Image: )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

STORM WARNING 100 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 171309 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 984HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1 SOUTH 164.2
EAST AT 171200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.1S 164.2E at 171200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
181200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.2S 163.9E AT 180000 UTC
AND NEAR 18.5S 163.4E AT 181200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 099.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Fiji/ Rotuma/ South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone MONA 03F 04/1500Z near 13.7S 175.6E, moving NNW ~16kt (RSMC Nadi) – Published 04 Jan 2019 2000Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone MONA 09P, 04F

Tropical cyclone Mona has continued to intensify and upgraded into a Fiji category 2 tropical cyclone at 10am local time today

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND THE WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU .

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LAND AREAS AND WATERS OF FIJI
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WHOLE OF FIJI.

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone MONA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 33 issued 1612 UTC Friday 4 January 2019

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone MONA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 pm January 4 2 13.7S 175.6E 85
+6hr 9 pm January 4 2 13.6S 175.8E 110
+12hr 3 am January 5 2 13.6S 176.0E 140
+18hr 9 am January 5 2 13.8S 176.5E 165
+24hr 3 pm January 5 2 14.3S 177.0E 195
+36hr 3 am January 6 2 15.7S 178.2E 255
+48hr 3 pm January 6 2 17.8S 179.0E 315
+60hr 3 am January 7 2 19.7S 178.6E 405
+72hr 3 pm January 7 2 21.1S 177.1E 490

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa
The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 041701 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 175.7E AT
041200 UTC. POSITION GOOD POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WIITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP
TO 500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP YIEDS DT=2.0. PT
AND MT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 14.2S 176.7E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 14.9S 177.6E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.9S 178.4E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 17.2S 178.9E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MONA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
042000 UTC.

 

FIJI

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY TWO FOR FLOOD ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 07.30AM SATURDAY THE 5TH OF JANUARY, 2019.

FLOOD WARNING

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR;

ALL LOW LYING AREAS, SMALL STREAMS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO MAJOR RIVERS OF FIJI;
LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO DREKETILAILAI STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF LABASA RIVER.
FLOOD ALERT

A FLOOD ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR;

LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO SABATA STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAVUA TOWN;
LOW LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO NAVUA BRIDGE STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAVUA RIVER;
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS ADJACENT TO AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAQALI STATION;

LEVEL AT SABATA STATION WAS 5.52M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 1.52M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.

LEVEL AT NAVUA BRIDGE WAS 2.32M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 0.32M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.
LEVEL AT NAQALI STATION WAS 3.45M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 1.10M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.

SITUATION

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 6 EAST OR ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR
ABOUT 510KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4AM TODAY.MONA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH, TURN EASTWARDS AND THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP FROM MID MORNING.
TIDE HEIGHT TIME
LOW 0.52 12.04PM
HIGH 1.69M 07.14pM

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON FLOOD WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 10.30AM TODAY OR EARLIER.

Fiji and Rotuma

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA ISSUED FROM RSMC
NADI at 5.00am on Saturday the 5th of January 2019

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND THE WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU .

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LAND AREAS AND WATERS OF FIJI
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WHOLE OF FIJI.
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13 DECIMAL 7
SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 6 EAST OR ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR
ABOUT 510KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4AM TODAY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, THE 10
MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 95KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
130KM/HR. MONA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16KM/HR.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH, TURN EASTWARDS AND THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP FROM MID MORNING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 380 KM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 480KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4PM TODAY
AND ABOUT 280KM NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 350 KM NORTHWEST OF
LABASA AT 4AM TOMORROW.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55KM/HR AND GUSTS UP TO
70KM/HR. WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED
UP TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90KM/HR FROM TONIGHT. PERIODS OF
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
LIKELY.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55KM/HR AND GUSTS UP TO
70KM/HR. WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED UP
TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90KM/HR FROM TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE REST
OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND OVER REST OF THE PLACES FROM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS LIKELY.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FURTHER INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS OVER
YASAWA WATERS AND NORTHERN VANUA LEVU WATERS FROM TONIGHT. FOR THE REST
OF FIJI WATERS, WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS
FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC MONA WILL BE ISSUED AT 08.00AM
TODAY.

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF FIJI
MEDIA RELEASE No.16
1pm, Friday, 04 January 2019
TC MONA FURTHER INTESIFIES AND UPGRADES TO CATEGORY 2
Tropical cyclone Mona has continued to intensify and upgraded into a category 2 tropical cyclone at 10am today. TC Mona remains to the northwest of the Group and has gradually picked up speed in the las 24 hours.
The cyclone is expected to move towards the south-southwest till this evening, turn and move east-southeast towards the Fiji Group from tonight.
TC Mona centre was located near 14.7 degrees’ south latitude and 177.2 east longitude or about 230km north of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 300km northwest of Labasa at 10am today.TC Mona is moving south-southwest at about 15km/hr.
On the forecast track, the centre is expected to be located about 180km north-northwest of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 290km north-northwest of Nadi at 10pm today and about 130km north of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 250km north of Nadi at 10am tomorrow.
Given that the tropical cyclones have behaved erratically, when encountering land masses in the past, the possibility of TC Mona making a landfall over Vanua Levu on Monday morning remains a possibility at this stage and its movement will be closely monitored.
The outer active rain bands from TC Mona have started affecting the northern and eastern parts of the country. As the system moves closer to Fiji, rain will become heavy and frequent. Effects of strong winds are also expected from today and increasing to damaging gale force winds later tomorrow.
Depending on the closeness of the system to pass land areas, gale force winds can be expected especially over the Yasawa and Mamanuca Group, Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands. Damaging winds are likely to begin several hours before the cyclone centre passes overhead or nearby.
The effects of wind can cause damages to well-built framed homes which can blow away roofs, trees uprooted and branches being broken, severely damage weak structures, totally destroy shallow rooted crops, cause loose objects to fly, damage electricity lines and poles, damage water infrastructure, etc.
For Fiji Waters, mariners can expect northeast to southeast winds 20 to 30 knots, gusting to 45
knots and moderate southerly swells. Poor visibility in areas of rain and thunderstorms. Winds may
further increase to 35 to 40 knots with high seas over Vanua Levu Waters and Yasawa Waters from
later tomorrow.
Meanwhile, an active trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain lies slow moving just
north of Vanua Levu and affects the northern part of the Group.
A Special Weather Bulletin for Tropical Cyclone Alert is current to allow communities to prepare
for the worst case scenario should the system directly affect the Group. The following alerts and
warnings remain in force:
A ‚ÄúGale Warning‚ÄĚ is now in force for Yasawa and Mamanuca Group
A ‚ÄúTropical Cyclone Alert‚ÄĚ remains in force for Yasawa Group, Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby
smaller islands and is now in force for the rest of Fiji
A ‚ÄúStrong Wind Warning‚ÄĚ remains in force for Kadavu and nearby smaller islands, Yasawa Group
and northern Viti Levu from Rakiraki to Tailevu North
A ‚ÄúStrong Wind Warning‚ÄĚ remains in force for all Fiji Waters
A ‚ÄúHeavy Rain Warning‚ÄĚ remains in force for Yasawa Group and Mamanuca Group, Vanua Levu,
Taveuni and nearby smaller islands, the eastern half of Viti Levu, Lau and Lomaiviti group
A ‚ÄúHeavy Rain Alert‚ÄĚ is now in force for the rest of Fiji
A ‚ÄúFlood Warning‚ÄĚ remains in force for all low lying areas, small streams and areas adjacent to
major rivers of Vanua Levu.
With rivers being at medium to high flows, soil already saturated and more rain predicted, the
chances of flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is high. Sea flooding of low-lying coastal
areas and damaging heavy swells is also anticipated. The Northern, and Eastern coastlines are at
high risk of inundation by combined effect of wind stress, heavy swells, storm surge and high tide.
All communities living in low coastal, flood prone and low lying areas are reminded to remain
alert and take all necessary precautions, similarly for those living in landslide prone areas.
Members of the public are advised to remain updated with the latest weather information and take
alerts and warnings seriously.
For more details and the latest on weather, please contact the National Weather Forecasting Centre
on 6736006, 9905376 or visit the Fiji Meteorological Service’s website, http://www.met.gov.fj. You can
also visit the Fiji Meteorological Service official Facebook page for latest updates.
Alerts and warnings can be found at:
Special Weather Bulletin (Tropical Cyclone Alert):
http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20020.txt
Flood alert/warning: http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20016.txt\
Heavy rain alert/warning: http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20014.txt
VILIAME VEREIVALU
ACTING DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY
Figure 1: Weather Map at 10am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 2: Satellite image at 10am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 4: Tropical Cyclone Mona (CAT1), Threat Map at 8.51am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 5: Tropical Cyclone Mona (CAT1), Forecast Track Map at 8.42am today on 04 January
2019.
Figure 3: Radar image at 10.40am today on 04 January 2019.
STATION
24 HOUR RAINFALL
Udu Point
146mm
Saqani
110mm
Nabouwalu
104mm
Matei
61mm
Monasavu
58mm Table 1: Significant rainfall at selected sites from 9am yesterday to 9am this morning, 04 January 2019.
END.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Jan, 2019 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MONA is currently located near 14.8 S 177.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). MONA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

dr mona.jpg

(Image: @RoshinRowjee ) 3 Jan 2019

MARITIME/SHIPPING

South West Pacific Marine

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Jan 040800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 050600 UTC. STORM WARNING 033 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 040752 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9 SOUTH 176.4 EAST AT 040600 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 14.9S 176.4E at 040600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 041800 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.2S 176.7E AT 041800 UTC AND NEAR 15.3S 177.2E AT 050600 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 030. *********************************************************************

*** GALE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 040649 UTC. THE AREA BOUNDED BY 09S 176E 09S 174E 10S 172E 09S 171E 09S 173E 09S 176E EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 031. *********************************************************************

***** TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9 SOUTH 176.4 EAST AT 040600 UTC. POSITION POOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 EQT 175E 05S 178E 14S 180 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 EQT 178W 08S 176W 15S 177W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. TROUGH T1 07S 160E 06S 165E 09S 172E 13S 176E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 16S 178W 21S 165W 25S 151W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 20S 149W 25S 149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. OUTSIDE STORM WARNING AREA 033 AND IN THE AREA BETWEEN SOUTH OF T1 AND WEST OF 175W, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 032 AND IN THE AREA WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ, EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS. IN THE AREA NORTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175W AND 140W, EXPECT MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175W AND 145W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Thailand/ Myanmar/ Malaysia: Tropical Storm PABUK 36W 04/0900Z 8.3N 100.7E, moving W 20kt (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 1300Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm PABUK 36W

Thailand and Myanmar beware!

Malaysia be aware!

1901-00-1

 

TS 1901 (Pabuk)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 4 January 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 4 January>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N8¬į20′ (8.3¬į)
E100¬į40′ (100.7¬į)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N8¬į40′ (8.7¬į)
E99¬į10′ (99.2¬į)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9¬į05′ (9.1¬į)
E97¬į35′ (97.6¬į)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10¬į50′ (10.8¬į)
E94¬į20′ (94.3¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 7 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13¬į00′ (13.0¬į)
E90¬į40′ (90.7¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

THAILAND

Weather Warning
“Tropical Storm ‚ÄúPABUK‚ÄĚ”
No. 19 Time Issued : January 4, 2019

At 17.00 p.m. on 4 January 2019, tropical storm ‚ÄúPABUK‚ÄĚ over A.Chang Klang, Nakhon Si thammarat or at latitude 8.4 degree north, longitude 99.7 degree east has maximum sustained wind is 65 km/hr. The storm is moving west at a speed of 13 km/hr. It is expected to move to Surat Thani. This will affect the South with widespread rainfalls, and torrential downpours are possible much of the area. People should beware of the severe conditions that cause forest runoffs and flash floods especially over tonight. Affected areas are as followings:

4 January: Torrential downpours and gusty winds much of provinces: Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

5 January: Torrential downpours and gusty wind much of provinces: Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

The strong winds are forecast with waves up to 3-5 meters high in the Gulf and 2-3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. All ships keep ashore lasting 5 January 2019. People in the Gulf should be aware of inshore surges.

The advisory is in effect on 4 January 2019 at 05.45 p.m.

 

(Signed) Phuwieng Prakhammintara

(Mr. Phuwieng Prakhammintara)

Director-General

Thai Meteorological Department

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

(4.1.2019): Weather is a few cloud over the Bay of Bengal and partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea.

Cyclone Warning
Friday, January 4, 2019 – 06:30
No Cyclone Warning

JABATAN METEOROLOGI MALAYSIA
KEMENTERIAN TENAGA, SAINS, TEKNOLOGI, ALAM SEKITAR & PERUBAHAN IKLIM
Jalan Sultan,
46667 Petaling Jaya,
Selangor Darul Ehsan,
Malaysia
Tel:
+603-79678000
Faks:
+603-79578052
Emel:
pcn@met.gov.my

JMM/POCGN(O)/BK-08
Ruj.Kami: JMM.RML06/599/46/JLD.49(26)
Nasihat Ribut Tropika
Dikeluarkan pada 5:45 petang 04 Januari 2019
Kategori: Nasihat Ribut Tropika (PABUK)
Masa Pencerapan: 17:00, 04 Januari 2019
Kedudukan: Latitud 8.3 Utara dan Longitud 100.7 Timur
kira-kira 146 km ke Timur Laut Hat Yai, Thailand.
Pergerakan: Ke arah Barat dengan kelajuan 15 km/j
Jarak dari Bandar terdekat: Kira-kira 216 km ke Timur Laut Arau, Perlis.
Kesan terhadap Malaysia: Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan angin kencang dan laut bergelora di perairan Kelantan dan Selat Melaka Utara.
Dikeluarkan oleh: Pusat Operasi Cuaca & Geofizik Nasional
Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
Kementerian Tenaga, Sains, Teknologi, Alam Sekitar & Perubahan Iklim
JABATAN METEOROLOGI MALAYSIA
KEMENTERIAN TENAGA, SAINS, TEKNOLOGI, ALAM SEKITAR & PERUBAHAN IKLIM
Jalan Sultan,
46667 Petaling Jaya,
Selangor Darul Ehsan,
Malaysia
Tel:
+603-79678000
Faks:
+603-79578052
Emel:
pcn@met.gov.my

JMM/POCGN(O)/BK-08
Our Ref.: JMM.RML06/599/46/JLD.49(26)
Tropical Storm Advisory
Issued at 5:45PM 4 January 2019
Category: Tropical Storm Advisory (PABUK)
Time of Observation: 17:00, 04 January 2019
Location: Latitude 8.3 North and Longitude 100.7 East
approximately 146 km Northeast of Hat Yai, Thailand.
Movement: West 15 km/h
Distance from nearest town: Approximately 216 km Northeast of Arau, Perlis.
Threat to Malaysia: This condition may cause strong winds and rough seas over waters off Kelantan and Northern Straits of Malacca.
Dikeluarkan oleh: Pusat Operasi Cuaca & Geofizik Nasional
Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
Kementerian Tenaga, Sains, Teknologi, Alam Sekitar & Perubahan Iklim

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2019 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PABUK is currently located near 7.2 N 103.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). PABUK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Surat Thani (9.1 N, 99.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Nakhon Si Thammarat (8.4 N, 100.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Chumphon (10.5 N, 99.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Ranong (10.0 N, 98.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Songkhla (7.2 N, 100.6 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Malaysia
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kota Baharu (6.1 N, 102.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
    Phuket (7.9 N, 98.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP27 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 46N 172E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING NE 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW WITHIN NEXT 6
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 50N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 54N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 52N 165E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1020 HPA
AT 41N 132E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 31N 134E ESE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 159E TO 30N 169E 33N 172E 35N 180E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1901 PABUK (1901) 996 HPA AT 08.4N 101.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

THAILAND

Shipping Weather Forecast

Synoptic Situation at January 4, 2019 15:00 LST
At 6.00 p.m. 4 January, Tropical storm ‚ÄúPABUK‚ÄĚ over A.Chang Klang Nakhon Si thammarat or located at latitude 8.4 N, longitude 99.7 E. With its maximum sustained winds of 35 knots or 65 km/hr, the storm was moving west-northwest at a speed of 7 knots or 13 km/hr. It expected to move to Surat Thani next time. The strong northeast monsoon prevails across the Gulf with torrential downpours much of the South. The winds are intensifying with wave 3-5 meters high and 2-3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. All ships in the Gulf do not venture out off the sea lasting 5 January.
24-Hour Weather Forecast for Shipping
From January 4, 2019 17:00 – January 5, 2019 17:00 ŗłô.
Both sides of Thai gulf Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated torrential rains much of the areas. Northeasterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Andaman sea Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated torrential rains. Northwesterly winds 11-22 knots or 20-40 km/hr. Wave height 2-3 meters and above 3 meters offshore.
Kotabaru to Singapore Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rains. Northwesterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Indochina Very cloudy with scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rains. Northeasterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Issued Date January 4, 2019 17:00

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

BAY BULLETIN
ISSUED ON  4 Р1 Р2019 at 19:00hrs M.S.T

BALLOON   :

PART ONE :  No Storm.

PART TWO   :

SPECIAL FEATURE: According to the observations at (18:30) hrs MST today, the tropical depression (Pabuk) over the Gulf of Thailand and continuously crossed near Chaung Kiang (Thailand). IT is forecast to move westwards and reach to Andaman sea .
FORECAST FOR AREAS BETWEEN LAT. 10.5¬įN ‚Äď 16.5¬įN AND LONG. 92¬įE
WEATHER    :        Fairlywidespread rain (or)  Thundershower.
VISIBILITY    :        (4) nautical  miles but (1) Nautical mile  in rain.
SURFACE WIND :   North (or ) NorthEast(15-20)kts at times (35) kts
SEAS    :               Rough
WAVE HEIGHT  :    (8-10)Feet

FORECAST FOR AREAS BETWEEN LAT. 16.5¬įN ‚Äď 20.5¬įN AND LONG. 92¬įE
WEATHER    :      Partly cloudy
VISIBILITY    :      (5) nautical miles but (1) nautical mile in rain.
SURFACE WIND :  North (or ) NorthEast(10-15)kts at times (30) kts
SEAS    :               Moderate
WAVE HEIGHT  :    (4-6)

HOIST            : Signal, LC III, Section (VI)
ADD        :
REPLACE     (MLM, DWE, KONG, COI, YGN, PTH)

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Papua New Guinea/ Australia: Tropical Cyclone PENNY 08P 02/2100Z position near 13.9S 151.0E, moving E 24kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 Jan 2019 2126Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone PENNY 08P

Penny lies over the Coral Sea and is moving away from the Queensland east coast

Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in
intensity as an Australian category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on
Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 18 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Penny) Warning #12
Issued at 02/2100Z

sh0819

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021800Z — NEAR 13.6S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 100 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 150.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 14.7S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 15.4S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 16.0S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 16.4S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 17.1S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 18.0S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 19.5S 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
POSITIONED JUST EAST. A 021723Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MICROWAVE STRUCTURE AND A 021200Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 50
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS. TC 08P WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08P WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-29
CELSIUS) SST SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE. DYNAMIC MODEL
VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND TRACK
SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Penny

Issued at 4:57 am AEST Thursday 3 January 2019. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Penny lies over the Coral Sea and is moving away from the Queensland east coast.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Penny at 4:00 am AEST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.3 degrees South, 149.3 degrees East , 340 kilometres north northwest of Willis Island and 505 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown .
Movement: east at 31 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Penny lies in the northwest Coral Sea and is tracking in an eastwards direction away from the east Queensland coast. Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in intensity as a category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening.

Hazards:

No direct impacts from the system are expected across Queensland in the short-term.

Recommended Action:

Nil.

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 am January 3 1 13.3S 149.3E 55
+6hr 10 am January 3 1 13.9S 151.2E 80
+12hr 4 pm January 3 2 14.4S 152.9E 100
+18hr 10 pm January 3 2 14.8S 154.0E 125
+24hr 4 am January 4 2 15.1S 154.5E 145
+36hr 4 pm January 4 2 15.7S 155.1E 185
+48hr 4 am January 5 1 16.0S 154.9E 220
+60hr 4 pm January 5 tropical low 16.3S 154.4E 255
+72hr 4 am January 6 tropical low 16.7S 153.5E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Thursday

 

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:59 am EST on Thursday 3 January 2019
At 4 am AEST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Penny with central pressure 992 hPa was
located over the northwest Coral Sea near latitude 13.3 south longitude 149.3
east, which is about 340 km north northwest of Willis Island and 505 km east
northeast of Cooktown.

Tropical Cyclone Penny is tracking in an eastwards direction away from the east
Queensland coast. Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in
intensity as a category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on
Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening.

No direct impacts from the system are expected across Queensland in the
short-term.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am AEST Thursday.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Jan, 2019 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PENNY is currently located near 13.6 S 150.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). PENNY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Papua New Guinea
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alotau (10.3 S, 150.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1857UTC 2 JANUARY 2019

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Penny was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal three south (13.3S)
longitude one hundred and forty nine decimal three east (149.3E)
Recent movement : east at 17 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 1800 UTC 03
January.

Winds above 48 knots developing within 50 nautical miles by 0600 UTC 03 January.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 03 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.4 south 152.9 east.
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre
At 1800 UTC 03 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.1 south 154.5 east.
Central pressure 979 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre by 0100
UTC 03 January 2019.

WEATHER PERTH

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Philippines: LOW Former TD 35W (TD Usman in Philippines) 30/1400Z 8.3N 116.0E (PAGASA) – Updated 30 Dec 2018 1550Z (GMT/UTC)

LOW PRESSURE AREA 35W

(TD Usman in Philippines)

At 10:00 AM today , ¬†the¬† Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression “USMAN”) ¬† was estimated, based on all available data, at 340 km West Southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan ¬†(8.3 ¬įN, 116.0 ¬įE). ¬†– PAGASA

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

r75slo1x9uuat7588aky_bigger

PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Weather Advisory

Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression

At 10:00 AM today , ¬†the ¬† Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression “USMAN”) ¬† was estimated, based on all available data, at 340 km West Southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan ¬†(8.3 ¬įN, 116.0 ¬įE). ¬†

This weather disturbance, along with the  Tail-End of a Cold Front , will continue to bring, in the next 24 hours , moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Bicol Region, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, and Northern Palawan incl. Calamian and Cuyo Groups of Islands. Meanwhile, light to moderate rains will prevail over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region(CAR) and the rest of Cagayan Valley Region, of CALABARZON, of Central Luzon and of Palawan.   Residents of these areas, especially those living near river channels and in low-lying and mountainous areas, are advised to take appropriate measures, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates.   Due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.   Sea travel remains risky over the seaboards of Luzon, and the eastern seaboard of Visayas. The public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates to be  incorporated in the public weather forecast at 4:00 PM today and 4:00 AM tomorrow. The next weather advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Depression 35W (Thirtyfive) Warning #23 Final Warning
Issued at 30/0300Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300000Z — NEAR 8.8N 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 119.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 8.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 8.1N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 119.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354
NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAGGED LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES INTO A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH ISOLATED, FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 292221Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS LIMITED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
SYSTEM IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAK
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 35W IS LOCATED WITHIN A
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT ADJACENT TO EXTENSIVE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 365NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA (INVEST 97W), THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR / NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
IT CROSSES PALAWAN ISLAND AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OUTER PERIPHERY
OF INVEST 97W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Gale Warning

Gale Warning # 10

Issued at: 5:00 PM today, 30 December 2018

Strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of northeast monsoon.

Strong to gale force winds is expected to affect the following areas.
Seaboard Weather Wind Force (kph/knots) Sea Condition Wave Height (meters)
The seaboards of northern and central luzon (Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, And Aurora) Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains (45 – 80) / (24 – 43) Rough to high 2.8 to 7.0
The western seaboard of southern luzon (Northern Palawan And Occidental Mindoro) Mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms (45 – 68) / (24 – 36) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 5.0
The eastern seaboard of southern luzon (Eastern Coast Of Quezon Including Polillo Island, Camarines Norte, Northern And Eastern Coasts Of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Eastern Coast Of Albay, And Eastern Coast Of Sorsogon) Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains (45 – 68) / (24 – 36) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 5.0
The eastern seaboard of visayas (Northern Samar And Eastern Samar) Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms (45 – 63) / (24 – 34) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 4.5

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves.

The next update will be issued at 5:00 am tomorrow.

Area Synopsis and 24-Hour Shipping Forecast

RPMM 300600
AREA SYNOPSIS AND 24-HOUR SHIPPING FORECAST
BEGINNING 301200
December 2018
Synopsis

SYNOPSIS: STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON PREVAILING OVER THE SHIPPING AREAS NORTH OF ONE EIGHT NORTH X SCARBOROUGH X MINDORO X CENTRAL PHILIPPINE AREA NORTH OF ONE TWO NORTH BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES TO EASTERLIES OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA PD

Shipping Zones Weather Condition Wind direction and Speed Wave Height
(meters)
Sea Condition
Bashi CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Balintang CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Scarborough CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Central Philippine AREA NORTH OF ONE FIVE NORTH CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
MINDORO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
EAST TAIWAN CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
RYUKYU CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
NORTH PHILIPPINE CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
REST OF CENTRAL PHILIPPINE Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
INLAND AREA NORTH OF ONE THREE NORTH Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM12 UP TO 15 MPS (24 – 30 KT) 2.8 – 3.7 Rough
SULU AREA NORTH OF ONE ZERO NORTH Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 15 MPS (24 – 30 KT) 2.8 – 3.7 Rough
South Philippine Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 14 MPS (16 – 28 KT) 1.2 – 3.4 Moderate to Rough
PALAWAN MOSTLY cloudy skies with SCATTERED rains and thunderstorms EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
REST OF INLAND Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
REST OF SULU Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
MINDANAO Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 11 MPS (16 – 22 KT) 1.2 – 2.5 Moderate to occasionally Rough
MORO Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 4 UP TO 10 MPS (8 – 20 KT) 0.6 – 2.1 SLIGHT TO MODERATE

WWJP27 RJTD 301200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 301200.
WARNING VALID 311200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 950 HPA
AT 51N 176E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 18 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 984 HPA
AT 42N 157E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 29N 122E 19N 123E 14N 116E 08N 110E
07N 107E 10N 107E 13N 109E 16N 108E 22N 112E 24N 118E 29N 122E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 114E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 172E TO 29N 176E 31N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mauritius/ Rodrigues/ La Reunion: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA 07S 21/1200Z 15.2S 57.7E, moving S 06ky 950hpa (RSMC LaReunion) – Published 21 Dec 2018 1417Z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA 07S

CILIDA is a now category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to intensify further to a category 5 storm on same scale by 22 Dec, 0:00

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Latest position see Maritime/Shipping section below

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cilida) Warning #10
Issued at 21/0900Z

sh0719

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 14.6S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 58.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 15.6S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 17.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 18.9S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 20.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 24.7S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z — 29.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 65 KNOTS AT 20/06Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED 15NM EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION DUE TO
LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 210522Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING WITH AN OBLONG EYEWALL SURROUNDING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5/6.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES AS WELL AS A RECENT CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 109 KNOTS. TC 07S
IS WOBBLING SLIGHTLY AS IT SLOWLY TURNS POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 155NM AT TAU 72
AND 220NM AT TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, TC CILIDA WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24-26C). THE SYSTEM
SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

SWI05_20182019

 

Bulletin du 21 décembre à 10H29 locales Réunion:
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CILIDA.
Pression estimée au centre: 955 HPA.
Position le 21 décembre à 10 heures locales Réunion: 14.6 Sud / 58.0 Est.
Distance des c√ītes r√©unionnaises : 745 km au secteur: NORD-NORD-EST.
Distance de Mayotte : 1390 km au secteur: EST.
Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 9 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le “Bulletin d’Activit√© Cyclonique” (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

Bulletin of December 21 at 10:29 La Reunion:
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CILIDA.
Estimated pressure in the center: 955 HPA.
Position December 21 at 10 am local Meeting: 14.6 South / 58.0 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 745 km to the sector: NORD-NORD-EST.
Distance from Mayotte: 1390 km to the area: EST.
Travel: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 9 km / h.
This newsletter is now complete.
Consult the “Cyclonic Activity Bulletin” (see link below)
to get the forecasts on this system.

http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours/dirre/CILIDA

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Dec, 2018 6:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA is currently located near 14.6 S 58.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). CILIDA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. CILIDA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mauritius
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds (US hurricane scale)

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 211215
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 00 UTC:
16.4 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

India/ Bay Of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm Phethai 08B 15/1500Z position nr 10.8N 84.9E, moving NNW 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Dec 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Phethai/ Tropical Cyclone 08B

DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‚ÄėPHETHAI‚Äô OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS – RSMC New Delhi

INDIA: Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 08B (Eight) Warning #02
Issued at 15/1500Z

io0818

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 10.4N 85.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 85.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 11.9N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 13.4N 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 15.1N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 16.6N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 19.1N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 151251Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A 150326Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF
BENGAL. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER INDIA. DUE TO TC 08B’S BROAD STRUCTURE AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 08B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING
VWS (30-50 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, COOLER SST (25-26C),
DRIER AIR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TC 08B WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72 AS IT
BEGINS TO RECURVE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

INDIA

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 1
FROM: RSMC ‚ÄďTROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 1 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 15.12.2018 BASED ON 1200 UTC
OF 15.12.2018.
DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‚ÄėPHETHAI‚Äô OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL:
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‚ÄėPHETHAI (PRONOUNCED AS PAY-TI)‚Äô
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 15TH DECEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.3¬įN AND LONGITUDE 84.9¬įE, ABOUT 440 KM EASTNORTHEAST
OF TRINCOMALEE (43418) (SRI LANKA), 590 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI (43278) (TAMIL NADU) AND 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MACHILIPATNAM
(43185) (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS
AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN
MACHILIPATNAM AND KAKINADA DURING 17TH DECEMBER AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat.¬įN/ long.¬įE)
Maximum sustained
surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
15.12.18/1200 10.3/84.9 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
15.12.18/1800 11.0/84.4 65-75 gusting to 85 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/0000 11.8/83.7 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/0600 12.4/83.2 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/1200 13.3/82.7 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/0000 15.0/82.1 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/1200 16.4/82.1 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/0000 17.5/82.6 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/1200 18.3/83.4 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1200 UTC ON 15TH DECEMBER THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM OVER SW BAY & N/HOOD IS T 2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER AREA
BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.5¬įN TO 15.0¬įN AND LONG 82.0¬įE TO 92.0¬įE (.) MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93.1¬į C.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA
IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4 WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH AMPLITUDE
GREATER THAN 1 FOR NEXT 4-5 DAYS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION & INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) IS 28-29ňöC AROUND THE SYSTEM AREA. IT IS DECREASING SLIGHTLY BECOMING
26-28ňöC TOWARDS WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ALONG & OFF ANDHRA
PRADESH COAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2
OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF BOB ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 60×10-
5 SECOND-1 TOWARDS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. LOWER LEVEL
VORTICITY IS 200×10-6 SECOND 1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS 20×10-5 SECOND-1 TOWARDS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND
INCREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES WARM AND MOIST AIR FEEDING INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM FROM
SOUTHEAST SECTOR AND DRY & COLD AIR PREVAILS OVER PENINSULAR INDIA. ALL
THESE MAY LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 16¬įN. THE SYSTEM IS BEING GUIDED
BY THE ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA, AND HENCE WILL HAVE MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. AS PER THE
MODEL FORECAST A DEEP TROUGH IN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES IS
APPROACHING THE INDIAN REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO RECURVATURE OF THE
SYSTEM TO NORTHEAST AFTER LANDFALL OVER ANDHRA PRADESH COAST. FURTHER
UNDER THE COMBIND EFFECT OF ANTICYCLONE AND ABOVE TROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. IT MAY
LEAD TO INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION. HENCE THERE IS POSSIBILITIES
OF WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY ON 17TH DECEMBER BEFORE LANDFALL DUE
TO DRY & COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHWEST AND COLDER SST & LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND HIGH WIND SHEAR. LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND SUGGEST
WIND SPEED OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS ARE HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. MOST OF
THE NWP MODEL GUIDENCE AGREE WITH ABOVE ANALYSIS.
(V.R. DURAI)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Dec, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EIGHT is currently located near 10.4 N 85.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). EIGHT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Kavali (14.9 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151609

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1500 UTC 15 DECEMBER 2018.

PART:-I STORM WARNING.

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 09 KNOTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM PHETHAI (PRONOUNCED
AS PAY-TI) AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 15 TH DECEMBER, 2018 OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.9
DEG E, ABOUT 440 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA), 590 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU) AND 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MACHILIPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
BETWEEN MACHILIPATNAM AND KAKINADA DURING 0900 UTC TO 1200 UTC OF
17 TH DECEMBER (.)

PART:-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E :N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 72 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E TO 72 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E :NE/N-LY 15/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 1 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N :NE/E-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:NE/N-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 16 DEG N TO 70 DEG E AND NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF16 DEG N (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E NE-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 20 DEG N :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N :NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E TO 72 DEG E :NE-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 62 DEG E (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 72 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
4)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E :NE/N-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 66 DEG E 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA :0.5-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N: CYCLONIC 40/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: W/NW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-4.5-9.0 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N E-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS TO THE W OF 87 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N NW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2.5-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 15 DEG N CYCLONIC 40/54 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 93 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG TO W OF 93 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 15 DEG N :5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2.5-5.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 17 DEG N : N/NE-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
1)S OF 17 DEG N :CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 18 DEG N :5.0-10.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 3.5-5.0 MTR (.)

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P 13/0600Z 15.1S 136.1E, slow moving. Max Wind 75kt. 961hPa (BoM) – Updated 13 Dec 2018 1000Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P

Australian Category 3 intensity = Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Severe TC Owen may reach Australian Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..– BoM

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP NT

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Issued at 4:53 pm ACST Thursday 13 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 24.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:
– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.
– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.
– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.
– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.
– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using
available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm December 13 3 15.1S 136.1E 35
+6hr 10 pm December 13 3 15.0S 136.5E 60
+12hr 4 am December 14 4 14.8S 137.2E 80
+18hr 10 am December 14 4 14.8S 138.1E 105
+24hr 4 pm December 14 4 15.0S 139.3E 130
+36hr 4 am December 15 3 15.8S 141.7E 165
+48hr 4 pm December 15 tropical low 17.2S 143.9E 200
+60hr 4 am December 16 tropical low 18.7S 145.7E 235
+72hr 4 pm December 16 tropical low 20.1S 147.5E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 pm ACST Thursday

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Issued at 5:28 pm AEST Thursday 13 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 24.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 4:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:
– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.
– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.
– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.
– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.
– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using
available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm December 13 3 15.1S 136.1E 35
+6hr 10 pm December 13 3 15.0S 136.5E 60
+12hr 4 am December 14 4 14.8S 137.2E 80
+18hr 10 am December 14 4 14.8S 138.1E 105
+24hr 4 pm December 14 4 15.0S 139.3E 130
+36hr 4 am December 15 3 15.8S 141.7E 165
+48hr 4 pm December 15 tropical low 17.2S 143.9E 200
+60hr 4 am December 16 tropical low 18.7S 145.7E 235
+72hr 4 pm December 16 tropical low 20.1S 147.5E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:30 pm AEST Thursday

 

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Port Roper and Port McArthur, including Port McArthur are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 4:52 pm ACST [5:22 pm AEST] on Thursday 13 December 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw.

Watch Zone
Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen.

Cancelled Zone
None

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST [4:00 pm AEST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South 136.1 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur.

Movement: slow moving.

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

 

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

 

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

 

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

 

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

 

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:

– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.

– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.

– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.

– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.

– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

 

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

 

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using

available daylight hours/before nightfall].

 

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

 

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm ACST Thursday 13 December [8:30 pm AEST Thursday 13 December].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2018 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Cyclone OWEN is currently located near 15.1 S 136.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). OWEN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OWEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alyangula (13.9 S, 136.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Numbulwar (14.5 S, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Borroloola (16.1 S, 136.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Edward River (15.0 S, 141.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (Hurricane) or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:15S136E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, PERTH
Issued at 0724UTC 13 DECEMBER 2018

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal one south (15.1S)
longitude one hundred and thirty six decimal one east (136.1E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 75 knots
Central pressure: 961 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre increasing to 95 knots by 0000 UTC 14
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 13 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.8 south 137.2 east
Central pressure 949 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 14 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.0 south 139.3 east
Central pressure 946 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1330 UTC 13 December 2018.

PERTH Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Vietnam/ Cambodia/ Thailand: Severe Tropical Storm USAGI 33W 24/1500Z near 9.6N 108.1E, moving W Slow 985hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 24 Nov 2018 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm USAGI 33W

VIETNAM BEWARE!

Usagi expected to make landfall over Hochimin, Vietnam from 25-27 November

Cambodia and Thailand be aware!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET JTWC

1829-001

 

STS 1829 (Usagi)
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 24 November 2018

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 24 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N9¬į35′ (9.6¬į)
E108¬į05′ (108.1¬į)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
‚Č• 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9¬į55′ (9.9¬į)
E107¬į10′ (107.2¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10¬į30′ (10.5¬į)
E106¬į30′ (106.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N11¬į35′ (11.6¬į)
E105¬į30′ (105.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1010 hPa
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

VIETNAM NCHMF

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Saturday, November 24, 2018 9.9 108 TS 76 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

04 Sunday, November 25, 2018 10.1 107.3 TS 76 km/hour
10 Sunday, November 25, 2018 10.5 106.4 46 TD km/hour
22 Sunday, November 25, 2018 11.3 104.5 Low 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 02:30 AM Sunday, November 25, 2018
Satellite Imagery

xxxxx

Thai Meteorological Department

Weather Warning
“Tropical Storm ‚ÄúUsagi‚ÄĚ”
No. 9 Time Issued : November 24, 2018

At 10.00 p.m. on 24 November, typhoon USAGI due 170 km Southeast of Hochimin, Vietnam, or latitude 9.7 N, longitude 107.8 E, downgrade to tropical storm with the maximum sustained winds of 110 km/hr. Moving west at a speed about 15 km/hr, it is forecast to make landfall over Hochimin, Vietnam from 25-27 November and decline, respectively. All travelers stay tuned for the weather updated.

The advisory is in effect on 24 November 2018 at 11.00 p.m.

The next issue will be on 25 November 2018 at 5.00 a.m.

 

(Signed) Phuwieng Prakhammintara

(Mr. Phuwieng Prakhammintara)

Deputy Director-General

Acting Director-General

Thai Meteorological Department

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT

Typhoon USAGI is currently located near 9.7 N 108.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). USAGI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. USAGI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Can Tho (10.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 33W (Usagi) Warning #26
Issued at 24/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 9.7N 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 108.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 10.2N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 10.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 11.0N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 11.2N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 108.0E.
TYPHOON 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO
CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

xxxx

Other

DocR U24
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP27 RJTD 241200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS FOR NEXT 18 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 155E 48N 155E 48N 180E 32N 180E
36N 165E 41N 155E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 6 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 49N 165E 55N 164E 60N 170E 60N 180E
48N 180E 49N 165E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1020 HPA AT 39N 131E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 57N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 32N 132E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 39N 143E EAST 15 KT.
COLD FRONT FROM 31N 180E TO 30N 177E 29N 174E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 174E TO 29N 170E 28N 160E 27N 153E 22N
144E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1828 MAN-YI (1828) 955 HPA AT 18.6N 136.3E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1829 USAGI (1829) 985 HPA AT 09.7N 108.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Thailand Shipping Weather Forecast

Synoptic Situation at November 24, 2018 21:00 LST
At 7.00 p.m. on 24 November, Typhoon USAGI centered at latitude 9.7 ¬į N and longitude 108.0 ¬įE has downgraded to tropical storm the maximum sustained winds of 60 knots or 110 km/hr. The storm is moving west with a speed of 7 knots or 15 km/hr. It is forecast to make landfall over southern Vietnam from 25-27 November and decline. The northeasterly monsoon across the Gulf bring about isolated rain over the South.
24-Hour Weather Forecast for Shipping
From November 24, 2018 23:00 – November 25, 2018 23:00 ŗłô.
Both sides of Thai gulf
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-18 knots or 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters and above 2 meters in thundershower areas.
Andaman sea
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-16 knots or 15-30 km/hr. Wave height about 1 meter and 1-2 meters in thundershower areas.
Kotabaru to Singapore
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-16 knots or 15-30 km/hr. Wave height about 1 meter.
Indochina
Cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 11-24 knots or 20-45 km/hr. Wave height 2-4 meters and above 4 meters in thundershower areas.
Issued Date November 24, 2018 23:00

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Minami Daito Jima/ Okinawa/ Amami ŇĆshima/ Japan: Typhoon MANYI 34W 23/1800Z near 17.1N 135.1E, moving N 09kt 955hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 23 Nov 2018 2018Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON MAN-YI 34W

Minami Daito Jima, Okinawa, Amami ŇĆshima and Japan mainland be aware!

Man-Yi is a storm equivalent to a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 231200Z IS 23 FEET – JTWC

1828-001

TY 1828 (Man-yi)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 23 November 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 23 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N17¬į05′ (17.1¬į)
E135¬į05′ (135.1¬į)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
‚Č• 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area N 520 km (280 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 24 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18¬į00′ (18.0¬į)
E135¬į10′ (135.2¬į)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 24 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18¬į05′ (18.1¬į)
E135¬į00′ (135.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N19¬į00′ (19.0¬į)
E131¬į55′ (131.9¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21¬į40′ (21.7¬į)
E131¬į00′ (131.0¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 34W (Man-yi) Warning #16
Issued at 23/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 16.6N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 135.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 17.9N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 18.5N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 18.9N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 19.5N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 21.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 24.0N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 26.7N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 135.3E.
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 729 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NWS GUAM

 

 

 

257
WTPQ31 PGUM 231531
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Man-yi (34W) Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP342018
200 AM ChST Sat Nov 24 2018

…TYPHOON MAN-YI BEGINS TO WEAKEN…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
Location…16.9N 135.3E

About 545 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 565 miles north-northwest of Ulithi
About 675 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 705 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds…100 mph
Present movement…northwest…335 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located
near Latitude 16.9 degrees North and Longitude 135.3 degrees East.
Man-yi is moving northwest at 15 mph. It is expected to turn north
tonight then back to the west-northwest Saturday afternoon, with a
decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 100 mph. Man-yi is
forecast to maintain this intensity today, then slowly weaken the
next few days.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 45 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 165
miles east of the center and up to 155 miles west of the center.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM this morning.

$$

Ziobro

Guam Alerts

Micronesian Alerts

xxxxxxxxx

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT (NOTE DATE)

Tropical Storm MAN-YI is currently located near 8.7 N 146.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). MAN-YI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DocR M22

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WWJP28 RJTD 231500
EMERGENCY WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 958 HPA
AT 45N 167E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 44N 175E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 43N 174W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 982 HPA AT 43N 160E
MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1828 MAN-YI (1828) 955 HPA AT 16.6N 134.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1829 USAGI (1829) 985 HPA AT 10.5N 110.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Vietnam/ Cambodia/ South China Sea: Tropical Storm Toraji 32W 17/1200Z 11.2N 110.7E, moving WSW 10kt 1004hPa (RSMCTokyo) – Published 17 Nov 2018 1330Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Toraji 32W

Vietnam Beware! Cambodia be aware!

JMA logo

1827-00

TS 1827 (Toraji)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 17 November 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 17 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N11¬į10′ (11.2¬į)
E110¬į40′ (110.7¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area NW 170 km (90 NM)
SE 110 km (60 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10¬į55′ (10.9¬į)
E109¬į05′ (109.1¬į)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N10¬į00′ (10.0¬į)
E105¬į50′ (105.8¬į)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

NCHMF VIETNAM

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

18 Saturday, November 17, 2018 11.0 111.1 TS 65 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

18 Sunday, November 18, 2018 11.2 109.3 TS 65 km/hour
18 Monday, November 19, 2018 10.6 106.5 TD 46 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:45 PM Saturday, November 17, 2018
Satellite Imagery

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1827 TORAJI (1827) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1004 HPA
AT 11.2N 110.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 10.9N 109.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 10.0N 105.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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India/ Sri Lanka/ Bay of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm GAJA 07B 142100Z 11.7N 83.6E, moving SW 08kt (JTWC) Expected to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm within 12hrs (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 14 Nov 2018 2100Z (GMT/UTC)

CYCLONIC STORM GAJA 07B

India, Sri Lanka and Bay of Bengal be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 07B (Gaja) Warning #17
Issued at 14/2100Z

io0718

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141800Z — NEAR 11.8N 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 84.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 11.3N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 10.9N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 10.8N 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 10.8N 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 10.9N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 11.2N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 11.4N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 141548Z ASCAT
PASS WHICH SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS, EXTENDING ABOUT 20 NM FROM THE
CENTER, IN ALL QUADRANTS. LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFICATION. TC 07B IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN INTACT AND
CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24,
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 07B TO INTENSIFY TO ABOUT 70
KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN INDIA
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, TC 07B WILL EMERGE
OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEAR 35 KNOTS
THROUGH TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH PREDICTS
RECURVATURE AND SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON
200 NM OF MODEL SPREAD (WITHOUT GFS) BY TAU 120, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z,
151500Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

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ftrack IMD G14

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REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 29
FROM: RSMC ‚ÄďTROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) NATIONAL
CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 60 HOURS ISSUED AT 1600 UTC OF
14.11.2018 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 14.11.2018.
CYCLONIC STORM ‚ÄėGAJA‚Äô OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‚ÄėGAJA‚Äô OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE 12.2¬įN AND LONGITUDE 84.0¬įE, ABOUT 410 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI
(43278) (TAMIL NADU) AND 480 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43347) (TAMIL NADU). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND CROSS TAMIL NADU COAST BETWEEN PAMBAN
(43363) AND CUDDALORE (43329) DURING 1200 & 1500 UTC OF 15TH NOVEMBER AS A CYCLONIC
STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 80 KMPH-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
14.11.18/1500 12.2/84.0 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
14.11.18/1800 12.1/83.6 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/0000 11.7/82.7 90-100 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/0600 11.2/81.8 90-100 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/1200 10.8/80.5 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
16.11.18/0000 10.6/78.9 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
16.11.18/1200 10.5/77.1 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
17.11.18/0000 10.4/75.3 20-30 gusting to 40 Low
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER 2018, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS C.I. 2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER BAY
OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 11.0¬įN TO 16.0¬įN AND LONGITUDE 82.0¬įE TO 86.0¬įE.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 86¬įC.

AT 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER, A BOUY LOCATED AT 13.5¬įN/84.2¬įE REPORTED A
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1005.8 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 50¬į/
23 KNOTS. ANOTHER BOUY LOCATED AT 14¬įN/87¬įE REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 1009 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 110¬į/8 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. STATE OF
SEA IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 5 WITH
AMPLITUDE CLOSE TO 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT 2 DAYS WITH
AMPLITUDE LESS THAN THAN 1. HENCE MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL DURING
NEXT 2 DAYS. THUS, IT WILL FAVOUR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-29¬įC
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL(TCHP) IS 50-80 KJ/CM2 AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. IT IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OF THE
ORDER 10X10-5 SECOND-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL VORTICITY
IS OF THE ORDER 120X10-6 SECOND-1 TO SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER OF 20X10-5 SECOND-1 TO THE NORTHEAST
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
OVER THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALSO ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. AS PER THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY, WARM AIR ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE NEAR NORTH TAMIL NADU AND ANDHRA PRADESH
COASTS. CLOUD IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD ORGANISATION WITH
BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRE FROM NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
SECTORS RESULTING IN CURVED BAND PATTERN FOR THE SYSTEM. THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS FOVOURABLE FOR INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE WHICH CAN LEAD TO
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ALL THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 12
HOURS INTO A MARGINAL SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. HOWEVER, WHILE MOVING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA WHICH CAN INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFIFCATION OF THE SYSTEM AND
RATHER CAN CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG LAT 15¬įN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST (ARABIAN SEA) AND THE COL REGION TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TILL LANDFALL. THEREAFTER IT WILL MOVE IN A NEAR
WESTWARDS DIRECTION WITH INCREASE IN SPEED OF MOVEMENT.
(D.JOARDAR)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI

WEATHER FORECAST FOR 15th NOVEMBER 2018

(Issued at 1200 noon on 14th November 2018)

The Cyclonic storm ‚ÄėGAJA‚Äô over the Central Bay of Bengal is now located approximately 660km away from Kankasanturai to the northeast of Sri Lanka, near latitude-13.1N, Longitude-85.3E at 05.30a.m. today.

 

Under the influence of this system showery and windy condition will enhance over the Northern province from tomorrow evening.

Showers or thundershowers at times will occur over the Northern province. Very heavy falls above 150mm can be expected in the Jaffna peninsula. Heavy falls above 100mm can be expected in other areas in the Northern province.

Several spells of showers will occur in Anuradhapura and Puttalam districts. Mainly fair weather will prevail elsewhere.

Very strong winds (60-70) kmph, gusting up to 80kmph can be expected over Northern province particularly over the Jaffna peninsula from tomorrow evening.

HIMAWARI Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GAJA is currently located near 12.3 N 84.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). GAJA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pondicherry (11.9 N, 79.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 141800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 14 NOVEMBER 2018.

PART:-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM \u2018GAJA\u2019 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HRS IST OF 14 TH NOVEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.2 DEG E, ABOUT 430 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU) AND 510 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (TAMIL NADU). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND CROSS TAMIL NADU COAST BETWEEN PAMBAN AND CUDDALORE DURING 15 TH NOVEMBER EVENING AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 80-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH (.)

PART:-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E:
N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 62 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 55 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
4)E OF 70 DEG E NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E: NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 71 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: N-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE W OF 66
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 72 DEG E
AND S OF 13 DEG N (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 21 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA :FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA :10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 90 DEG E
:CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPRED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 5 DEG N: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.5-4.0 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS TO THE W OF 90
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 18 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 20 DEG N: 9.0-12.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 4.0-9.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS \u2013
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 14 DEG N ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS (.)
2)S OF 14 DEG N :CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 18 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 20 DEG N:4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
—————————————
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++

Sri Lanka

WEATHER FORECAST FOR SEA AREAS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING

NEXT 24 HOURS (Issued at 1200 noon on 14th November2018)

The Cyclonic storm ‚ÄėGAJA‚Äô over the Central Bay of Bengal is now located approximately 660km away from Kankasanturai to the northeast of Sri Lanka, near latitude-13.1N, Longitude-85.3E at 05.30a.m. today. It is very likely to move west-southwestwards and intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours.

Under the influence of this system, winds can be strengthen and seas will be very rough over sea areas off coast extending from Batticaloa to Mannar via Trincomalee and Kankasanturai.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea areas off coast extending from Potuvil to Mannar via Trincomalee and Kankasanturai.

Showers or thundershowers will occur in the sea areas extending from Trincomalee to Puttalam via Kankasanturai. Heavy showers or thundershowers can be expected in the sea areas extending from Mullaitivu to Mannar via Kankasanturai.

Winds will be North-westerly to Westerly over the sea areas around the island and speed will be 30-40 kmph.

Sea areas to the North and East of the island will be very rough at times as the wind speed can increase up to (70-80) kmph at times. Sea areas off southern coast can be rough at times as the wind speed can increase up to (50-60) kmph.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar/ Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Alcide 03S 101500Z nr 12.9S 52.7E, moving NW 01kt (JTWC) – Published 10 Nov 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Alcide 03S

Madagascar, Providence Island and Seychelles be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Alcide) Warning #18
Issued at 10/0900Z

sh0319

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 12.9S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 52.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 12.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 12.5S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 12.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 12.0S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 10.6S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 52.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH COMPACT RAIN
BANDS FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREAKS
SPIRALING INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL AT 26-27 CELSIUS, COOLED
BY UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE PROLONGED QS MOTION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST ASSUMES
STEERING. INCREASING VWS AND COOL SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD BUT WITH A GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN
EVENTUAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

Bulletin du 10 novembre à 16H27 locales Réunion:
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALCIDE.
Pression estimée au centre: 997 HPA.
Position le 10 novembre à 16 heures locales Réunion: 12.7 Sud / 52.6 Est.
Distance des c√ītes r√©unionnaises : 955 km au secteur: NORD-NORD-OUEST.
Distance de Mayotte : 800 km au secteur: EST.
Déplacement: Quasi-stationnaire .
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le “Bulletin d’Activit√© Cyclonique” (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

Bulletin of November 10 at 16:27 local Réunion:
TROPICAL STORM MODERATE ALKID.
Estimated pressure at the center: 997 HPA.
Position November 10 at 4 pm Réunion: 12.7 South / 52.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 955 km to the sector: NORD-NORD-OUEST.
Distance from Mayotte: 800 km to the area: EST.
Displacement: Quasi-stationary.
This newsletter is now complete.
Consult the “Cyclonic Activity Bulletin” (see link below)
to get the forecasts on this system.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 101308 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 52.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 00 UTC:
12.6 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 12 UTC:
12.4 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Cocos Island/ Home Island: Tropical Cyclone FOUR 04S 100900Z position near 5.5S 90.7E, moving S 05kt (JTWC) – Published 10 Nov 2018 1510Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FOUR 04S

Cocos Island/ Home Island Beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 8 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Four) Warning #01
Issued at 10/0900Z

sh0419

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOITN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100221ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 5.5S 90.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 90.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 5.6S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 5.6S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 5.4S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 5.4S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 6.1S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 7.6S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 9.3S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 5.5S 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 100353Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS)
STATE UP TO TAU 48 AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARD, IT WILL
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
ASSUMES STEERING. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72, FUELED BY INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AND
TRAJECTORIES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE QS STATE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS ANS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO22 PGTW 100230)//
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta

bom_logo_clr

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FQAU21 AMMC 100715
40:2:1:31:11:01:00
IDY10240
SECURITE

High Seas Forecast for Northern METAREA 8/10/11
NORTHERN AREA: COAST AT 125E TO 12S125E TO 12S90E TO 0S90E TO 0S142E TO COAST
AT 142E

Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 10 November 2018

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Part 1 Warnings
Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected.

Nil.

Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC
Refer to latest warnings for boundary of affected area and type of weather
system.

Southeasterly trade flow over most of area.

Low 1006hPa near 04S092E. Forecast 1005hPa near 03S092E at 111200UTC.

Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.

Within 180nm of low:
Clockwise winds 15/25 knots increasing to 20/30 knots within 90nm of low in
southern and western semicircle. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell.

Remainder west of line 05S098E 07S104E 12S107E:
Southeast quarter winds 15/25 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate
swell.

Elsewhere:
Winds not exceeding 20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell.

Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms within 180nm of low. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms remainder mainly, north of line 07S142E 02S131E
04S117E 10S113E 10S090E. Isolated showers elsewhere. Visibility reducing below
2nm in precipitation.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

The next routine forecast will be issued at 19:15 UTC Saturday.

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mexico: Tropical Storm XAVIER 25E 05/1800Z 18.7N 106.5W, moving WNW ~3.77kt 999mb (NHC FL) – Published 05 Nov 2018 1855Z

Tropical Storm XAVIER 25E

…XAVIER GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY SHOWERS WINDING DOWN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO…NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 051743
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
1100 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

…XAVIER GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY SHOWERS WINDING DOWN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…18.7N 106.5W
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 106.5 West. Xavier is
moving a little bit faster toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7
km/h), and an additional increase in forward speed is expected later
today. A westward motion is forecast by early Tuesday, continuing
through Thursday. On the forecast track, Xavier’s center is
expected to continue moving farther away from the southwestern coast
of Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Colima and Jalisco, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches
possible. This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still possible within the
warning area during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 5 Nov, 2018 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm XAVIER is currently located near 18.5 N 106.2 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). XAVIER is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 25E (Xavier) Warning #12
Issued at 05/1600Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25E (XAVIER) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
051200Z — NEAR 18.4N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 106.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 18.7N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 18.9N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 18.9N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 18.8N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 18.5N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 106.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 25E (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1046 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND
061600Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FZPN02 KWBC 051725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 07.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW NW OF AREA 58N169E 967 MB MOVING E 20 KT NEXT 12 HOURS THEN
TURNING NE 25 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 62N175E TO 59N173W TO
50N179W. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 480 NM S
QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 23 FT. ALSO WITHIN 150
NM NE AND E OF THE FRONT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 48N W OF 176W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 58N173E 972 MB. WITHIN 360 NM
SE AND 420 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N175W 985 MB. N OF 53N W OF 167W WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 29 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
51N163E TO 43N175E TO 43N180W TO 54N167W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
TO 19 FT…HIGHEST S QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA 67N164W 999 MB. N OF 62N W OF
ALASKA WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN BERING
SEA BETWEEN 162W AND 179E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 55N131W 1004 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 480 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 41N E OF 153W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. FROM 42N TO 56N E OF
138W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN W TO NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 45N168W 1007 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE AND 420 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO
17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW TO 46N163W TO 45N157W…WITHIN 180 NM E OF A FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 43N157W TO 36N160W AND WITHIN 600 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N157W 1004 MB. WITHIN 420 NM E QUADRANT
AND FROM 43N TO 50N BETWEEN 159W AND 165W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT…HIGHEST SW. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 54N BETWEEN
156W AND 175W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT…HIGHEST SW OF
LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N151W 998 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S…AND 360
NM W AND NW QUADRANTS AND OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF A FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE LOW TO 55N148W TO 53N140W TO 48N133W WINDS 25 TO
40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N168E TO 35N160E AREA
OF E TO SE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 30N168E TO 35N160E AREA OF E
TO SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 169E AREA OF E WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 175W AREA OF E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

..GALE WARNING…
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 52N160E 1009 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 56N166E 996 MB. WITHIN 480 NM E
AND 720 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 33N TO 40N BETWEEN 121W AND 127W AREA OF NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 42N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W AREA OF
N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 43N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W AREA OF
N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N TO 38N BETWEEN
156W AND 175W AREA OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN AREA FROM
45N157W TO 43N149W TO 39N158W TO 45N157W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.

.HIGH 37N142W 1029 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N139W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N138W 1027 MB.

.HIGH 47N144W 1027 MB MOVING SE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N133W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N132W 1027 MB.

.HIGH 53N165W 1023 MB MOVING NE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 39N172E 1033 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N180W 1035 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 45N170E 1031 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N177W 1035 MB.

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON NOV 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE NOV 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED NOV 07.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM XAVIER NEAR 18.5N 106.2W 999 MB AT 1500 UTC NOV
05 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS…100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM XAVIER NEAR 18.9N 108.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN
107W AND 109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW XAVIER NEAR 18.8N
111.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW XAVIER NEAR 18.5N
113.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N TO NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 07N104W 1010 MB. FROM 02N TO 05N
BETWEEN 98W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW
SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 01S BETWEEN 81W AND 86W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1515 UTC MON NOV 5…

T.S. XAVIER…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT.

LOW PRES NEAR 14N118W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 08N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N94W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 14N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N129W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N138W TO 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N E OF 99W.

.FORECASTER NR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 05 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 06 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 07 2018.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 29N158E 1015 MB. E TO
S WINDS 30 TO 35 KT N OF 28N W OF 165E. E TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF 23N W OF 165E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N165E 1015 MB. WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITHIN
240 NM OF LOW CENTER NE SEMICIRCLE. E TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 28N160E 23N170E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 25N170E 1015 MB. WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITHIN
240 NM OF LOW CENTER NE SEMICIRCLE. NE TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 28N160E 25N170E 21N179E.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 07N174W 1007 MB MOVING WNW 15 KT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF LOW N SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS FROM 10N TO
04N BETWEEN 175W AND 164W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE
FROM 14N TO 02N BETWEEN 178W AND 164W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N178W 1006 MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF LOW N SEMICIRCLE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N177E 1005 MB. SEE WINDS BELOW.

.COLD FRONT 30N166W 27N172W 24N179W MOVING SE 10 KT THENCE A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N170W. NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT N OF FRONT W
OF 172W. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF STATIONARY FRONT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF STATIONARY FRONT W
OF 172W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N162W 26N170W 23N179W 23N170E. NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF FRONT. .48 HOUR
FORECAST FRONT 30N162W TO 18N176E. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS
8 TO 10 FT N OF FRONT.

.E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 10N BETWEEN 166E AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 12N BETWEEN
168E AND 174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 16N TO 12N
BETWEEN 174E AND 176W.

.SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY 20N170W 06N170W 14N164E 20N164E
20N170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS TO 11 FT WITHIN BOUNDED BY 20N163E
20N175W 13N170W 06N177W 12N163E 20N163E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT BOUNDED BY 18N179W 08N179W
08N172E 15N164E 18N170E 18N179W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ITCZ 09N140W 07N147W 09N155W 08N163W TO 10N170W. SCATTERED
STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF ITCZ W OF 156W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ E OF 156W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 16N TO 00N BETWEEN 160E AND 179W.

$$
.HONOLULU FORECASTER.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Atlantic Ocean: Post-Tropical Cyclone OSCAR 312100Z 39.3N 49.6W, moving NNE ~30.2kt 976mb (NHC FL) – Updated 31 Oct 2018 2300Z (GMT/UTC)

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR

Oscar is a storm equiv to a CAT1 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale

…..OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE…
…HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT…….Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km) –
NHC FL

#FaeroeIslands #Iceland #Scotland #Ireland #NorthernIreland be aware!

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

143825_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

…OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE…
…HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…39.3N 49.6W
ABOUT 540 MI…870 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 975 MI…1570 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar
was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and a motion toward the northeast with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next two to three
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next
several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical
cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Oscar that are affecting Bermuda will
subside tonight. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Oscar. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

 

 

Canadian Hurricane Centre

 

 

No statements currently issued.

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin
POST TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR
IS NOT A THREAT TO BERMUDA

Advisory #20 (last advisory),
6 pm Wed, Oct 31, 2018 (2100 UTC Wed, Oct 31, 2018)
Refresh browser for latest image
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) has passed.
Current Position: 39.3N 49.6W approx. 849 nm NE of Bermuda
Recent Movement: NNE or 30 degrees at 30 kt
Central Pressure: 976 mb / 28.82 in
Max Winds: 65kt gusts 80kt
BWS Tropical Update Bulletins (TUBs), in line with NHC updates, are normally issued every 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). When a tropical watch or warning is in effect for Bermuda, intermediate TUBs are issued at 3-hour intervals between the regular TUBs (06, 12, 18, and 00 UTC). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 31 Oct, 2018 15:00 GMT

Hurricane OSCAR is currently located near 36.6 N 51.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). OSCAR is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OSCAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
  the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 95% in about 93 hours
    Iceland
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 93 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 93 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 93 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Jan Mayen
        probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Probability of tropical storm winds to 69 hours lead

Probability of tropical storm winds to 93 hours lead

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 312033
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT…….230NE 240SE 240SW 280NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 420SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
50 KT…100NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT… 90NE 110SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…330NE 360SE 390SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 100SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 420SE 390SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 150SW 60NW.
34 KT…360NE 450SE 420SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…360NE 480SE 540SW 450NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 49.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OSCAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 

Canada Hurricane Centre

Marine Weather Warnings

FZNT01 KWBC 312139
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2230 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
AMERICAN ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 39.3N 49.6W 976 MB AT 2100 UTC
OCT 31 MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 30 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…230 NM NE QUADRANT AND 280 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 330 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…360 NM NW
QUADRANT AND 420 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 31N TO 44N BETWEEN 37W AND 64W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 46.8N
41.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT…360 NM SE QUADRANT…390
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 270 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 600 NM NE…660 NM SE…960 NM SW…AND 360 NM NW
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 54N BETWEEN
35W AND 54W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR E OF AREA NEAR
54.2N 28.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT…450 NM SE
QUADRANT…420 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 720 NM NE…660 NM SE…1440 NM SW…AND
540 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 48 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 41N TO
58N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 59.5N
15.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 67.0N
2.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…STORM WARNING…
.06 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 64N38W 993 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N37W 999 MB. N OF 64N AND E OF GREENLAND
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN 60 NM E AND 120 NM SE
OF THE GREENLAND COAST WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER E OF AREA 50N31W 1001 MB MOVING E
30 KT AND SECOND CENTER 50N45W 1001 MB MOVING E 30 KT. WITHIN
360 NM SW QUADRANT OF MAIN CENTER AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF
SECOND CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.WITHIN 120 NM W AND SW OF THE GREENLAND COAST S OF 64N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 240 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 40N60W TO
35N75W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 45N45W 1012 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST W AND NW OF A LINE FROM 31N70W TO 40N60W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 43N TO 47N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 51N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.DENSE FOG. 48 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

.LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY NW OF A LINE FROM 62N62W TO 67N53W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 33N75W 1023 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N65W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N54W 1029 MB.

.HIGH 58N62W 1020 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 57N54W 1016 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC OSCAR WELL N OF AREA. COLD FRONT FROM 31N52W TO 22N68W
THEN STATIONARY TO 20N75W. E OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N40W TO
27N47W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. N OF 29N W OF
FRONT TO 60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
A LINE FROM 31N38W TO 23N53W TO 28N62W TO 26N72W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N43W TO 24N50W TO 22N57W
THEN STATIONARY TO 21N66W. N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 37W S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
31N37W TO 27N45W TO 27N57W TO 31N62W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N36W TO 22N48W TO
20N55W THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N64W. N OF FRONT
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 16N TO 26N E OF 39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN MIXED NE AND E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN 18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO 18 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N W OF 89W S WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N93W TO 25N98W. N OF 25N E
OF FRONT TO 85W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. W OF
FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO 22N92W TO 19N96W. W
OF A LINE FROM 23N93W TO 19N96W N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Small Craft Warning

Valid: This afternoon through This evening
Updated: 4:30 pm Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Small Craft Warning
Issued when winds of mean speed 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 9 feet or greater are forecast to affect the marine area within the next 36 hours.
Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Ken Smith

 

FQNT21 EGRR 312000
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 2000 UTC ON WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER 2018
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 2000 UTC ON WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER UNTIL
2000 UTC ON THURSDAY 01 NOVEMBER 2018

STORM WARNING
AT 311200UTC, NEW LOW MOVING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST
EXPECTED 45 NORTH 45 WEST 968 BY 011200UTC. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION AFTER 011600UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS
AT 311200UTC, NEW LOW MOVING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST
EXPECTED 45 NORTH 45 WEST 968 BY 011200UTC. LOW 64 NORTH
28 WEST 990 EXPECTED 63 NORTH 30 WEST 999 BY SAME TIME.
LOW 51 NORTH 38 WEST 999 EXPECTED 48 NORTH 15 WEST 1008
BY THAT TIME. AT 311200UTC, LOW 59 NORTH 13 WEST 989
EXPECTED 62 NORTH 09 WEST 995 BY 011200UTC. LOW 65 NORTH
00 WEST 986 EXPECTED 68 NORTH 09 WEST 989 BY SAME TIME.
HIGH 66 NORTH 47 WEST 1021 DISSIPATING BY THAT TIME
AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

SOLE
NORTHWESTERLY BACKING WESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING VARIABLE
4 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD

SHANNON ROCKALL
WEST OR NORTHWEST 5 OR 6. ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
LATER. SHOWERS. GOOD

BAILEY
CYCLONIC BECOMING NORTHWEST, 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH.
SHOWERS. GOOD

FAEROES SOUTHEAST ICELAND
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, BECOMING WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 OR
6 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD

EAST NORTHERN SECTION
CYCLONIC IN FAR NORTHWEST, OTHERWISE NORTHERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY, 5 TO 7, BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5 LATER
IN WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH FOR A
TIME IN FAR NORTHWEST. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR

WEST NORTHERN SECTION
IN NORTH, CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE
9 UNTIL LATER IN FAR NORTHWEST. ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGH FOR A TIME IN FAR NORTH. RAIN OR
SHOWERS, WITH SNOW IN FAR NORTHWEST. MODERATE OR POOR,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR IN FAR NORTHWEST.
IN SOUTH, NORTHWESTERLY BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5,
BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4 LATER IN FAR SOUTH, THEN
BECOMING EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 OR 6 IN FAR SOUTH.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. SHOWERS, RAIN LATER IN FAR SOUTH.
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR LATER IN FAR SOUTH

EAST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, NORTHWESTERLY 5 OR 6, BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4,
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7 LATER IN WEST. MODERATE OR
ROUGH. OCCASIONAL RAIN, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY, BACKING SOUTHERLY
LATER IN WEST, 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH. OCCASIONAL
RAIN, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY
POOR

WEST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 OR 6, BECOMING
CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8 LATER, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN
WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH
LATER. RAIN OR SHOWERS, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR POOR,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7, BACKING SOUTHERLY 6 TO
GALE 8, INCREASING SEVERE GALE 9 OR STORM 10 LATER IN
SOUTHWEST. ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH OR
HIGH LATER IN SOUTHWEST. RAIN OR SHOWERS, FOG PATCHES.
MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

DENMARK STRAIT
IN AREA NORTH OF 70 NORTH, NORTHERLY 6 TO GALE 8,
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN SOUTH. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH IN SOUTH. OCCASIONAL SNOW, FAIR
LATER. MODERATE OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR, BECOMING GOOD
LATER. MODERATE OR SEVERE ICING WITH TEMPERATURES MS05 TO
MS08.
IN AREA SOUTH OF 70 NORTH, EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 6 TO
GALE 8, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 UNTIL LATER. VERY
ROUGH OR HIGH, BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH LATER.
OCCASIONAL RAIN OR SNOW. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY
VERY POOR. MODERATE OR SEVERE ICING IN NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES MS03 TO MS05

NORTH ICELAND
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7, INCREASING
GALE 8 OR SEVERE GALE 9 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH LATER. OCCASIONAL RAIN OR
SNOW. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR. SEVERE OR
VERY SEVERE ICING DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES MS06 TO MS09.
IN SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7, BECOMING CYCLONIC 6 TO
GALE 8 LATER, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN NORTHWEST.
ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN SOUTHEAST.
OCCASIONAL RAIN, WITH SNOW IN NORTHWEST. MODERATE OR
POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR IN NORTHWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ICING IN NORTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MS02

NORWEGIAN BASIN
SOUTHWESTERLY BACKING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY, 5 TO 7
INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES, DECREASING 3 OR 4 LATER IN
WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

OUTLOOK FOR FOLLOWING 24 HOURS:
VIOLENT STORMS EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL SECTION. STORMS
EXPECTED IN EAST CENTRAL SECTION AND NORTH ICELAND. GALES
OR SEVERE GALES EXPECTED IN SHANNON, ROCKALL, BAILEY,
EAST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST NORTHERN SECTION, DENMARK
STRAIT AND NORWEGIAN BASIN
UNSCHEDULED STORM WARNINGS ARE BROADCAST VIA SAFETYNET
AND IN
BULLETIN WONT54 EGRR AVAILABLE VIA SOME INTERNET AND
FTPMAIL
OUTLETS=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Tanzania hunts homosexuals, threatens ‚Äôround-up‚Äô – Reblogged from Erasing 76 Crimes

A Tanzanian official is threatening to launch a round-up of homosexuals starting next week. Paul Makonda, the governor of Dar-es-Salaam, said his anti-gay ‚Äúad hoc team‚ÄĚ will ‚Äúget their hands on them next Monday.‚ÄĚ To prepare for the round-up, he asked the general public yesterday to call him with the names of homosexuals living¬†in‚Ķ

via Tanzania hunts homosexuals, threatens ‚Äôround-up‚Äô ‚ÄĒ Erasing 76 Crimes

Philippines/ Taiwan/ China: Severe Tropical Storm YUTU 31W 312100Z near 19.2N 116.9E, moving NNW at 04kt (JTWC) – Updated 30 Oct 2018 2110Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm YUTU 31W
(Rosita in Philippines)

“ROSITA” HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR). – PAGASA

Philippines, Taiwan  and China  beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 31W (Yutu) Warning #42
Issued at 31/2100Z

wp31186

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR 042

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311800Z — NEAR 18.9N 117.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 117.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 19.9N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 20.7N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 21.5N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 22.1N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:

312100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 116.9E.

TROPICAL STORM 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS

OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN

 

 

STS 1826 (Yutu)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 31 October 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 31 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N18¬į55′ (18.9¬į)
E116¬į55′ (116.9¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
‚Č• 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20¬į10′ (20.2¬į)
E116¬į30′ (116.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20¬į50′ (20.8¬į)
E116¬į30′ (116.5¬į)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 2 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N21¬į25′ (21.4¬į)
E116¬į40′ (116.7¬į)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

 

Philippines

PAGASA logoPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Storm”Rosita”
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

Issued at 05:00 pm, 31 October 2018
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at this:00 weather disturbance.)

 

“ROSITA” HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

  • Light to moderate rains due to the trough of Severe Tropical Storm “ROSITA” will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands. Residents in these areas, especially those living near river channels, in low-lying areas and mountainous areas, are advised to take appropriate actions against possible flooding and landslides, coordinate with the local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
  • Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the western seaboards of Luzon and the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon.
Location of Eye/center

At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “ROSITA” was estimated based on all available data at 325 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) (18.3 ¬įN, 117.5 ¬įE )

Movement

Moving West Northwest at 15 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 105 kph

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 585 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(20.0¬įN, 116.4¬įE)
  • 48 Hour(Friday afternoon):585 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(21.2¬įN, 116.4¬įE)
Warning Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal
With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final warning for this weather disturbance.
Tropical Cyclone Hourly Position
Date Time Intensity Location Reference
2018-10-31 4:00 AM Severe Tropical Storm 17.1¬įN 118.7¬įE 210 km Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan

 

TAIWAN

Tropical Storm YUTU (201826)
„ÄčAnalysis
1800UTC 31 October 2018
Center Location„ÄÄ18.90N„ÄÄ116.90E
Movement  NNW  14km/hr
Minimum Pressure  990 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km

„ÄčForecast
12 hours valid at:
0600UTC 01 November 2018
Center Position 20.10N 116.50E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NNW 12 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  990 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 60km
24 hours valid at:
1800UTC 01 November 2018
Center Position 20.90N 116.40E
Vector to 24 HR Position
N 7 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  995 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 20 m/s
Gust 28 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  150km
Radius of 70% probability circle 100km
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER 36 HOURS

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Oct, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm YUTU is currently located near 18.4 N 117.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). YUTU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
   Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
¬†¬†¬†¬†T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

 

WWJP27 RJTD 311800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 25N 128E 23N 128E 19N 120E 23N 115E
27N 120E 25N 128E.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 49N 164E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 46N 174E
MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 160E 50N 160E
60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 170E 45N 170E 45N 160E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 120E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 24N 165E EAST SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 146E TO 34N 168E 33N 174E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1826 YUTU (1826) 990 HPA AT 18.9N 116.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico / Pacific Ocean: Hurricane WILLA 24E 231500Z near 21.4N 106.9W, moving NNE ~4.8kt (NHC FL) – Updated 23 Oct 2018 1535Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE WILLA 24E

WILLA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

……AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO… – NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

 

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 26 FEET- JTWC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 231500
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

…AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by this evening. On the forecast
track, the center of Willa will move over Las Islas Marias within
the next few hours, and make landfall within the hurricane warning
area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is forecast today,
Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall tonight
and continuing into Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Maria
today, and will spread into the hurricane warning area along
the coast of mainland Mexico this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring on Las Islas Marias, and will continue to
spread northward along the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area today.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
Swells during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Oct, 2018 15:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane WILLA is currently located near 21.4 N 106.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). WILLA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. WILLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Durango (24.0 N, 104.7 W)
        probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Hurricane 24E (Willa) Warning #14
Issued at 23/1600Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 21.1N 107.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 107.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 22.7N 105.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 24.9N 102.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 26.7N 99.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 106.7W.
HURRICANE 24E (WILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 877 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 23E (VICENTE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ24 KNHC 231500 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN… INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
… NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W…INLAND

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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