Oman/ Yemen/ Somalia/ Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm KYARR 04A 291500Z position near 19.5N 62.9E, moving NW 02kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Oct 2019 1955Z (GMT/UTC)

SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR

KYARR is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 45 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Tropical Cyclone 04A (Kyarr) Warning #20
Issued at 29/1500Z

io0419-2

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 19.5N 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 63.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 19.6N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 19.4N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.0N 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 18.3N 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.0N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 14.3N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 11.8N 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 62.9E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A WEAK EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 291158Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED LOWER AT
105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, CONSISTENT WITH A 291230Z CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. TC 04A IS TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE WESTERN STR WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36
DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND
POTENTIALLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

 

 

 

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICALCYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO.38

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHITO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 38 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700UTC OF 29.10.2019 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 29.10.2019.

SUB:(A) EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘KYARR’ (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR) OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL & NORTH ARABIAN SEA

.(B) WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREA

(A) EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘KYARR’ (PRONOUNCED AS KYARR) OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL& NORTH ARABIAN SEA

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM‘KYARR’OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL & NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 04KMPH DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500HRS UTC OF 29THOCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.5°N AND LONGITUDE 62.9°E,ABOUT 1040 KM WEST-NORTHWESTOF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA), 990KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 440KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30THOCTOBERMORNING,RE-CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADENOFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE 0600UTCOF 30THOCTOBER AND FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY THE 0000UTCOF 31STOCTOBER.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:DATE/TIME(IST)POSITION(LAT.0N/LONG.0E)MAXIMUMSUSTAINEDSURFACEWINDSPEED(KMPH)CATEGORYOFCYCLONICDISTURBANCE29.10.19/150019.5/62.9180-190 GUSTING TO 210EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM29.10.19/180019.6/62.7170-180GUSTING TO 200EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/000019.6/62.3160-170GUSTING TO 190EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/060019.5/61.9145-155GUSTING TO 170VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM30.10.19/120019.4/61.6130-140 GUSTING TO 155VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM31.10.19/000019.1/61.1110-120 GUSTING TO 130SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM31.10.19/120018.6/60.490-100 GUSTING TO 110SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM01.11.19/000017.7/59.370-80 GUSTING TO 90CYCLONIC STORM01.11.19/120016.7/58.260-70 GUSTING TO 80CYCLONIC STORM02.11.19/000015.7/57.050-60 GUSTING TO 70DEEP DEPRESSION02.11.19/120014.7/55.940-50GUSTING TO 60DEPRESSION03.11.19/000013.7/54.825-35 GUSTING TO 45DEPRESSIONREMARKS:AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1500 UTC OF 29THOCTOBER, 2019, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 5.5/CI 5.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 17.50NTO 21.00N AND LONG 61.00E TO 64.50E. THE MINIMUM CTT IS MINUS 93DEG C.THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943HPA. THE SEACONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.AT 1500 UTC A SHIP LOCATED NEAR LAT. 16.0°N / 64.5°E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 1008.8HPAAND WIND 1900/25 KNOTS.THE MJO LIES IN THE PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 3 DAYS AND ENTER INTO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITDUE LESS THAN 1 THEREAFTER. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 250X10-5 SEC-1TOTHESOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30X10-5S-1TO THE SOUTHEASTOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 20X10-5S-1TO THE SOUTHEAST OFTHE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE(15-20KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER MOST PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA IS AROUND 27-28°C WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE, IT IS WARMER(29-30°C). TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTEROVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEAS IS 20-40 KJ/CM2WHILE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM2.TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE CONTINUEDREDUCTION IN WARM AND DRY AIR INCURSION IN THE SOUTHWESTERNSECTORSOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS TAKING PLACE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. ALL THESE ENVIRONMENTAL, DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 19°N. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BYTHEWINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EASTOF THE SYSTEM.AS A RESULT, IT IS CONTINUING TO MOVEWEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY BEING IN THE COL REGION. ITWILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THEANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ARABIAN PENINSULA, LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SYSTEMBY 0000 UTC OF 30THOCTOBER.SUBSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDSAND VERY LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS THEREAFTER.MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE ABOVE INFERENCE.

WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREATHE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES& ADJOINING COMORIN AREAPERSISTS. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.

(V R DURAI)SCIENTIST-F, RSMC, NEW DELH

Source: National Bulletin


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NO TSR Storm Alert

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

K29 Doc R

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

WINDY

https://www.windy.com/?18.663,61.875,5

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

India

WTIN01 DEMS 291800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 29 OCTOBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM\U92ADYARR\U4E39VER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AND NORTH ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 2 KTS DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LAY
CENTRED AT 1200 HRS UTC OF 29 TH OCTOBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 DEG
N AND LONGITUDE 63.1 DEG E, ABOUT 1020 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA), 990 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 460 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 30 TH OCTOBER MORNING,RE-CURVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER AND MOVE TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN OFF
SOUTH OMAN-YEMEN COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO WEAKEN INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE 0600 UTC OF 30
TH OCTOBER AND FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY THE 0000 UTC
OF 31 ST OCTOBER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
130 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 00 UTC 19.6 N / 62.3 E MAX WIND 90 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/10/30 AT 12 UTC 19.4 N / 61.6 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN NOW LIES OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND
ADJOINING COMORIN AREA. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREAS AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N: CYCLONIC
20/30 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)E OF 65 DEG E 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO
THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 85/90 KTS (.)
2)E OF 66 DEG E : NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS TO THE S
OF 14 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 12 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 70/75 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 6 D EG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA VARIABLE 03 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 87 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/ Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN 17L 25/1500Z 25.6N 94.4W, moving N ~14.03kt 1006 mb (NHC FL) – Published 25 Oct 2019 1930Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN 17L

(Future Cyclone OLGA)

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT…NHC FL

 

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

143243_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

000
WTNT32 KNHC 251431
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 320 MI…515 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in
effect.

Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings
associated with this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 94.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is
expected this afternoon through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone should move across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast
tonight or Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected today, and the depression could
become a tropical storm this afternoon. The cyclone is then
expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low
with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf
coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the depression this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gale-force winds associated with this system should spread
over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday
morning.

RAINFALL: The depression and rainfall ahead of the system along and
north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is
expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into
the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. These rains
may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal
flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast.
Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for additional information.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across
southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest
Alabama.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Oct, 2019 9:00 GMT

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 25 Oct, 2019 15:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL17 is currently located near 25.6 N 94.4 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). AL17 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 251431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN
EFFECT.

PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES FOR INFORMATION ON THE NON-TROPICAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 94.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 94.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.2N 93.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.6N 91.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.1N 89.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 43.2N 85.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 94.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

FZNT01 KWBC 251604
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

METAREA IV BULLETIN WILL ONLY BE BROADCAST FROM THE INMARSAT
AOE SATELLITE. PLEASE ENSURE YOUR RECEIVER IS POINTED
CORRECTLY.

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML
(LOWERCASE EXCEPT CAPITAL A IN ATL).

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 27.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW E OF AREA 36N33W 992 MB MOVING E 10 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 32N TO 42N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 16 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 47N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 36N28W 999 MB. NEW LOW 38N53W
1008 MB RAPDILY INTENSIFYING. FROM 31N TO 38N BETWEEN 35W AND
38W N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT IN N SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM
31N TO 42N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO
14 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FIRST LOW WELL E OF AREA 41N23W 1000 MB.
SECOND LOW 41N48W 978 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40
TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 43N BETWEEN
35W AND 62W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 50N TO 55N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 47N TO 55N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 53N43W 1016 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT AND FROM 45N TO 50N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 42N TO 58N WINDS LESS THAN 25
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW MEAN CENTER 55N43W 1004 MB. WITHIN
180 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 43N TO 60N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 59N58W 1003 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. WITHIN 270 NM N OF LINE
FROM 65N63W TO 55N48W SE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18
FT…HIGHEST NEAR 67N57W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 65N66W 1006 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
OF LINE FROM 67N61W TO 60N50W SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 60N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 55N TO 60N W OF 57W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 50N TO 55N W OF 54W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 55N TO 62N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 50N TO 55N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

.HIGH 39N67W 1028 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N61W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 63N39W 1026 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA 60N33W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 31N54W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING…
.COLD FRONT FROM 30N94.5W TO 23N96W TO 22N98W. W OF FRONT NW TO
N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN NEAR 25.6N 94.4W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 25 MOVING N
OR 010 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
WITHIN 120 NM E AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF T.D. WINDS 25 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W SE
TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N89W TO 18N93W. POST-
TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SEVENTEEN INLAND NEAR 32.6N 91.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. S OF 28.5N W OF FRONT
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT…HIGHEST S OF 20N. SEAS 8 TO 15
FT…HIGHEST S OF 21N. N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N84.5W TO 18.5N93W. POST-
TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SEVENTEEN NEAR 43.2N 85.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. S OF 20N BETWEEN 92.5W AND
94.5W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 24.5N35W TO 20.5N48W. WITHIN 120 NM SE OF
FRONT E OF 38W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. N OF
28N E OF 46W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT…EXCEPT NW TO W WINDS 20
TO 25 KT E OF 38W. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT WITH N SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF
24N E OF 53W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 21.5N35W TO 18.5N43W. N OF 19N
E OF 59W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 19 FT IN N TO NE
SWELL…HIGHEST NE PART.
.48 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N35W TO 17.5N45W. N OF
12.5N E OF 65W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN N TO NE
SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Ogasawara Islands/ Japan/ West Pacific: Major Typhoon BUALOI 22W 23/1500Z 25.0°N 141.9°E, moving N 13kt. Wind 90kt, gust 130kt. 950hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 23 Oct 2019 1730Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon BUALOI (22W, 1921)

BUALOI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

…TYPHOON BUALOI MOVING NORTH VERY NEAR IWO TO ISLAND… – NWS Guam

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 39 FEET – JTWC

logo

1921-00

 

 

 

 

TY 1921 (Bualoi)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 23 October 2019

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 23 October>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°00′ (25.0°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 17 UTC, 23 October>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°10′ (25.2°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 23 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10′ (26.2°)
E142°00′ (142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N27°35′ (27.6°)
E142°20′ (142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28°55′ (28.9°)
E143°00′ (143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°25′ (30.4°)
E144°10′ (144.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

xxxx

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 22W (Bualoi) Warning #19
Issued at 23/1500Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 24.0N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 141.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 26.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 29.5N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 32.6N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 35.9N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 42.1N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 142.0E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

GUAM

WFO Guam (US NWS)

 

 

182
WTPQ32 PGUM 231438
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bualoi (22W) Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP222019
100 AM ChST Thurs Oct 24 2019

…TYPHOON BUALOI MOVING NORTH VERY NEAR IWO TO ISLAND…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
Location…24.7N 142.0E

About 470 miles north-northwest of Agrihan
About 705 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 800 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds…115 mph
Present movement…N…355 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM ChST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located
near Latitude 24.7 degrees North and Longitude 142.0 degrees East…
moving north at 14 mph. Bualoi will turn towards the north-northeast
today and maintain this heading through Saturday. Bualoi is expected
to gradually increase its forward speed as it passes well east of
Japan.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 115 mph. Bualoi is expected to
steadily weaken through Saturday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 35 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 155
miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last advisory that will be issued by the National Weather
Service for Typhoon Bualoi.

$$

Bukunt


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Oct, 2019 0:00 GMT

 

Typhoon BUALOI is currently located near 17.1 N 145.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 115 kts (132 mph). BUALOI is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BUALOI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

NONE

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP32 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 950 HPA
AT 24.8N 142.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 27.6N 142.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 30.4N 144.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Typhoon NEOGURI 21W 20/1200Z 25.4°N 129.9°E, moving NNE 11kt. Wind 65kt, gust 95kt. 980hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 20 Oct 2019 1443Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon NEOGURI (1920, 21W)

NEOGURI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (TSR UCL London data)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 24 FEET – JTWC

logo

1920-00

Visible Loop

TY 1920 (Neoguri)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 20 October 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 20 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N25°25′ (25.4°)
E129°55′ (129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28°00′ (28.0°)
E131°30′ (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°00′ (31.0°)
E133°50′ (133.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N34°20′ (34.3°)
E138°20′ (138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)

xxxx

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 21W (Neoguri) Warning #16
Issued at 20/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 25.6N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 130.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 27.8N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 30.0N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 32.6N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 34.9N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 38.7N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 130.4E.
20OCT19. TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z,
210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Oct, 2019 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI is currently located near 24.5 N 129.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NEOGURI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NEOGURI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

NONE

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1920 NEOGURI (1920) 980 HPA
AT 25.4N 129.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 28.0N 131.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 31.0N 133.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 34.3N 138.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

United States/Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN (16L) 18/1500Z 25.9N 90.0W, moving NE ~18.8kt. Wind ~52.1kt 1001mb (NHC FL) – Updated 1520Z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN (16L)

(Future Tropical Storm NESTOR)

…NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

145015_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

…NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC...INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.9N 90.0W
ABOUT 230 MI…365 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.0 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track, the
system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight
and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States on
Saturday and Sunday. The system is forecast to move offshore of the
coast of North Carolina by late Sunday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected later today, with
weakening forecast after the system moves inland.

The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical
storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
mainly to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL…3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL…2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area by later today and this evening, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight and early Saturday
near the Florida Gulf Coast from the central panhandle to the
western peninsula.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Oct, 2019 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL16 is currently located near 24.3 N 92.5 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL16 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 181446
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.8N 88.0W…TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…140NE 160SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…100NE 150SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.2N 82.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.4N 78.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…130NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.0N 71.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.0N 69.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 90.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1…AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

FZNT01 KWBC 180933
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

METAREA IV BULLETIN WILL ONLY BE BROADCAST FROM THE INMARSAT
AOE SATELLITE. PLEASE ENSURE YOUR RECEIVER IS POINTED
CORRECTLY.

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
ATLANTIC ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML
(LOWERCASE EXCEPT CAPITAL A IN ATL).

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC OCT 20.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW INLAND NEAR 45N66W 987 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 51W AND 75W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 21 FT…HIGHEST NEAR 42N64W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N59W 992 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE
LOW TO 57N54W TO 55N49W TO 49N50W TO 40N47W. WITHIN 300 NM N AND
NE OF THE FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N58W 997 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW OF A FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM 57N61W TO 61N52W AND N OF 63N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. ALSO WITHIN 60 NM SE OF A
LINE FROM 60N43W TO 60N44W TO 60N47W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO
12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 65N56W 1004 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
120 NM NE AND 240 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS N OF AREA.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 51N47W 996 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS NE
OF A FRONT FROM 59N41W TO THE LOW TO 35N47W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL SIXTEEN INLAND 34N81W 1004 MB.
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 31N TO 35N W OF 74W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 61N41W TO
59N45W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW E OF AREA NEAR 42N29W 1012 MB MOVING SE 30 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 38N TO 43N E OF 38W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 56N40W TO 49N36W AREA OF
W TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 65N39W
TO 64N37W AREA OF W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 55N61W TO
53N54W TO 43N50W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 58N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.

.HIGH 33N38W 1023 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 47N39W 1024 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N66W 1019 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 20.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN NEAR 24.3N 92.5W 1004 MB AT
0900 UTC OCT 18 MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100
NM E SEMICIRCLE. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND
150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIXTEEN NEAR 29.0N 87.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM W SEMICIRCLE…120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 180 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 30N
BETWEEN 82W AND 90W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN N OF AREA
NEAR 33.5N 80.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE…100 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. OVER FORECAST WATERS NW
OF LINE FROM 31N74W TO 27N80W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN NEAR 37.0N
72.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN NEAR 37.5N
69.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 22N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 26N TO 29N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL.

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W TO 24N69W. N OF
30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
NW SWELL. N OF 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N52W TO 24N59W. N OF 29.5N E
OF FRONT TO 48W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW TO N
SWELL.

.ATLC 30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 78W SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 74W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Typhoon HAGIBIS (20W) 12/0700Z 34.1°N 138.3°E, moving NNE 35 km/h (19 kt) Wind 45 m/s (85 kt) Gust 60 m/s (120 kt) 945hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 12 Oct 2019 0758Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON HAGIBIS (1919, 20W)

 HAGIBIS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. (TSR UCL London data)

JAPAN – Emergency Weather Warnings in effect

The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000ZIS 40 FEET – JTWC

 

 

JPWARN H12Emergency Weather Warnings in effect

The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

 

VITAL INFORMATION FROM NHK JAPAN  https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/special/01/1919/

1919-00 JMA TRACK 0700Z

 

 

 

 

 

 

Himawari satellite (animation)  every 10 minutes / every 2.5 minutes

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 07:40 UTC, 12 October 2019

<Analysis at 07 UTC, 12 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N34°05′ (34.1°)
E138°20′ (138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 330 km (180 NM)
NW 260 km (140 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 08 UTC, 12 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N34°25′ (34.4°)
E138°25′ (138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 330 km (180 NM)
NW 260 km (140 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°35′ (35.6°)
E139°35′ (139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°55′ (37.9°)
E141°50′ (141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (31 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°35′ (39.6°)
E145°20′ (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 60 km/h (33 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°10′ (41.2°)
E150°00′ (150.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 75 km/h (40 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2019 0:00 GMT

Typhoon HAGIBIS is currently located near 32.1 N 137.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). HAGIBIS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HAGIBIS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

 

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FL

Typhoon 20W (Hagibis) Warning #28
Issued at 12/0300Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 32.1N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 010 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.1N 137.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 35.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.5N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 40 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 44.1N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 138.0E.
12OCT19. TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DoctorR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

NHK News https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/?utm_int=error_contents_news

NHK LIVE TV https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/live/

JAPAN: The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued heavy rain emergency warnings for many parts of central and eastern Japan. The warnings are at the highest level on the agency’s five-step scale. The affected areas are: Shizuoka Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1919 HAGIBIS (1919) 945 HPA
AT 33.7N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 37.9N 141.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 41.2N 150.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

 

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ireland/ Northern Ireland/ UK/ Atlantic Ocean: Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO 02/1500Z 44.4N 25.8W, moving NE ~37.2kt. Wind 80mph. 962mb (NHC FL) – Updated 02 Oct 2019 2057Z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO

…LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM…

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, UNITED KINGDOM, ISLE OF MAN, FRANCE, CHANNEL ISLANDS, NETHERLANDS, BELGIUM, GERMANY, and LUXEMBOURG BE AWARE!

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

…LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…44.4N 25.8W
ABOUT 945 MI…1525 KM WSW OF CORK IRELAND
ABOUT 970 MI…1565 KM WSW OF GALWAY IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH…69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…962 MB…28.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has
discontinued all warnings for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 25.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph
(69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected
through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and
turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move
near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England
on Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate
of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and
England.

Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
For hazard information for Lorenzo in Ireland and the United Kingdom
see products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met
Office.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website
of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Ireland

met-eireann-logo

National Warnings

Status Orange – Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Southwesterly winds veering westerly will reach mean speeds 65 to 80km/h with gusts generally of 100 to 130km/h, higher in coastal regions.
Storm surges will produce coastal flooding and damage.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 18:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 03:00

Status Yellow – Wind warning for Ireland
Southeasterly winds later veering southwesterly will reach mean speeds 50 to 65km/h with gusts to 100km/h resulting in some disruptive impacts.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 09:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 06:00
Status: Yellow Rainfall warning for Ireland
Status Yellow – Rainfall warning for Ireland
Spells of heavy rain (in excess of 50mm in parts of the west and northwest) will result in some flooding.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 09:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 09:00

Weather Advisory for Ireland

The effects of Storm Lorenzo will begin to be felt across Ireland from Thursday morning, easing Friday morning. The main impacts will include disruptive winds, falling trees and flooding.

In early October, trees are mostly in full leaf with a large surface area, so even moderate strength winds can bring down weakened trees and/or tree limbs. In addition, some trees may be compromised due to saturated soils at the moment, and with more rain forecast with Storm Lorenzo some disruption due to falling trees/branches is likely. Heavy rain, coupled with falling leaves may block drains and gullies, leading to surface flooding.

Coastal:
Storm Lorenzo will produce significant swell, high waves and sizeable storm surges. This will lead to wave overtopping, some coastal flooding and damage, especially along western and southern coasts.

Surface Flooding:
Saturated soils and the expected heavy/thundery rainfall may lead to surface flooding.

River:
River levels are currently elevated across the country and the rainfall may lead to river flooding, especially in parts of the midlands and west. River levels will continue to rise after Storm Lorenzo has passed.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 09:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 09:00

United kingdom

UK Weather Warnings

Issued by the Met Office

  1. Yellow warning of wind

    Areas affected: Northern Ireland

    Starts: 15:00 BST on Thu 3 October

    Ends: 22:00 BST on Thu 3 October

    A spell of strong south-easterly winds may bring some transport disruption later on Thursday. – Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely – Probably some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer – Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges likely – It’s likely that some coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves – Some short term loss of power and other services is possible

    Issued at: 09:43 BST on Wed 2 October

  2. Yellow warning of wind

    Areas affected: South West England | Wales

    Starts: 04:00 BST on Fri 4 October

    Ends: 16:00 BST on Fri 4 October

    Strong winds may cause some transport disruption on Friday. – Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely – Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges likely – Some short term loss of power and other services is possible – It’s likely that some coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities are affected by spray and/or large waves

    Issued at: 09:57 BST on Wed 2 October

    Source: http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/satellite.php

    Source: https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/satellite_imagery.php


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 2 Oct, 2019 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Hurricane LORENZO is currently located near 44.4 N 25.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). LORENZO is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LORENZO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Northern Ireland
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Scotland
probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
Wales
probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
the Isle of Man
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
England
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Lands End (50.1 N, 5.6 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Cardiff (51.5 N, 3.2 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

UK Met Office

SurPress 1200 (UTC) on Wed 2 Oct 2019

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 021435
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN…AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 37 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT…….100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT…….200NE 240SE 220SW 150NW.
34 KT…….300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 720SE 840SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 28.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT…100NE 130SE 120SW 60NW.
50 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.
34 KT…300NE 340SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…100NE 100SE 120SW 60NW.
50 KT…160NE 160SE 180SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…270NE 300SE 240SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 0SE 140SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 25.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 022000

WONT54 EGRR 022000
SECURITE
STORM WARNING
AT 021200UTC, HURRICANE LORENZO 43 NORTH 28 WEST BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW 53 NORTH 13 WEST 968 BY 031200UTC.
WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11
WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW 57 NORTH 40
WEST 984 EXPECTED 58 NORTH 44 WEST 984 BY SAME TIME.
EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
STORM FORCE 10 AT TIMES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OF EAST
NORTHERN SECTION, THE FAR NORTH OF WEST NORTHERN SECTION
AND THE WEST OF DENMARK STRAIT FROM 030300UTC UNTIL
031800UTC

AZORES

bulletins Marine
0000254301
FQAZ67 LPMG 020300
INSTITUTO PORTUGUES DO MAR E DA ATMOSFERA.
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SHIPPING FOR THE ATLANTIC ZONES
LIMITED BY MERIDIANS 40W-22W AND BY PARALLELS 30N-45N.
I – TTT TTT TTT.
HURRICANE WARNING IN ZONES 3(ALTAIR) AND 5(ACORES).
GALE WARNING IN ZONES 30(MILNE) AND 31(MARSALA).
VERY POOR VIS WARNING IN ZONES 3(ALTAIR)E 5(ACORES.
HEAVY WAVES WARNING IN ZONES 3(ALTAIR), 5(ACORES),
7(IRVING), 30(MILNE) AND 31(MARSALA).
HURRICANE WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST OF
FLORES AND CORVO ISLANDS FROM ACORES
IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
VIOLENT STORM WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM
THE COAST OF PICO, FAIAL, S.JORGE, GRACIOSA
AND TERCEIRA ISLANDS FROM ACORES IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
NEAR GALE WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST
OF S.MIGUEL AND STA. MARIA ISLANDS FROM ACORES
IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
BAD VISIBILITY WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST
OF FLORES AND CORVO ISLANDS FROM ACORES
IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
HEAVY WAVES WARNING UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE COAST
OF ALL ISLANDS FROM ACORES IN ZONE 5(ACORES).
II – WEATHER SUMMARY AT 020000UTC:
HIGH/ 1023HPA/ 35N15W/ EXP 030000UTC/ 1023HPA/ 35N14W.
HURRICANE LORENZO/ 960HPA/ 38N34W/ MOV NE 20KT/
LITTLE CHANGE.
W-FRONT/ 38N38W/ 42N36W/ 44N32W/ 46N29W/
MOV E/NE 20KT/ MOD TO STGR ACTIVITY.
III – FORECAST VALID TO 030600UTC:
3 – ALTAIR:
CYCLONIC 7 TO 12, BECMG W/NW 5 TO 7
IN W AND 7 TO 10 IN E, DECR TO 4 TO 6 LATER.
POOR TO VERY POOR VIS, BECMG GOOD TO MOD FM
LATE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WAVES 3 TO 5 M, TEMPO INCR TO 9 TO 14 M,
BECMG W WAVES 4 TO 5 M IN W AND 5 TO 7 M IN E LATER.
5 – ACORES:
S QUAD 7 TO 12, BECMG W QUAD 6 TO 8 DURING
AFTERNOON, DECR TO 2 TO 4 LATER.
GOOD TO MOD VIS, BEING POOR TO VERY POOR IN
NW UNTIL MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
SW WAVES 4 TO 8 M, INCR TO 9 TO 14 M, BEING W/SW
WAVES 2 TO 4 M IN E SOON, BECMG W/NW WAVES 5 TO 8 M
FM AFTERNOON, DECR TO 3 TO 5 M LATER.
7 – IRVING:
W/SW 5 TO 7, GRADUALLY DECR TO 2 TO 4
DURING AFTERNOON, BECMG VAR 2 TO 3 FM LATE
AFTERNOON.
GOOD TO MOD VIS.
W/SW WAVES 5 TO 7 M, BEING 2 TO 4 M IN E,
GRADUALLY BECMG W/NW WAVES 3 TO 4 M.
30 – MILNE:
NW 6 TO 8, TEMPO W 4 TO 6, BACK SW AND INCR
TO 6 TO 8 IN N.
GOOD TO MOD VIS.
W QUAD WAVES 4 TO 6 M, BEING 6 TO 9 M IN S,
GRADUALLY DECR TO 3 TO 4 M.
31 – MARSALA:
NW 4 TO 6, BEING 6 TO 8 IN NE, BECMG N/NW 3 TO 4,
BECMG VAR 2 TO 4 LATER.
GOOD TO MOD VIS.
NW WAVES 4 TO 6 M, BEING 6 TO 8 M IN NE,
GRADUALLY DECR TO 3 M.
FORECASTERS: LOURENCO/MEDEIROS/VIEIRA.
SOURCE: INSTITUTO PORTUGUES DO MAR E DA ATMOSFERA –
PORTUGAL.

Source: https://www.ipma.pt/en/maritima/boletins/

 

Ireland

Status Orange – Gale Warning

Southeast gales or strong gales on Thursday morning on all Irish Coastal Waters and on the Irish Sea, veering southwest and reaching storm force at times in the west.

Issued: Wednesday 02 October 2019 15:00

 

United Kingdom

 

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 16 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

A ridge of high pressure will gradually build from the west tonight. The ridge gradually declining eastwards on Thursday as the remnant low of ex-hurricane Lorenzo moves in to the west of Ireland later in the day. The filling low is then expected to move steadily southeastwards into southwest England during Friday morning.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 10 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Hurricane lorenzo 550 miles west of Fitzroy becoming extratropical, expected Shannon 968 by midday tomorrow

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

There are storm warnings in 8 areas.

The general synopsis at 2 October 19:00 UTC

At 021200UTC, hurricane lorenzo 43 north 28 west becoming extratropical low 53 north 13 west 968 by 031200UTC. Low 57 north 40 west 984 expected 58 north 44 west 984 by same time. Low 46 north 58 west 999 expected 50 north 40 west 977 by that time. at 021200UTC, high 74 north 07 east 1027 expected 70 north 03 east 1027 by 031200UTC. High 41 north 12 west 1023 dissipating

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

SHANGHAI/ China/ South Korea/ Japan: Severe Tropical Storm MITAG 29/1500Z 30.2°N 122.5°E, moving N 11kt. Wind 60kt Gust 85kt 980 hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 01 Oct 2019 1825Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (1918, 19W)

SHANGHAI China South Korea Japan be aware

JMA logo

1918-00-2

 

 

STS 1918 (Mitag)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 1 October 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 1 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N30°10′ (30.2°)
E122°30′ (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N32°35′ (32.6°)
E124°10′ (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N34°40′ (34.7°)
E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°50′ (37.8°)
E130°55′ (130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)

xxxx

CHINA

typhoon_logo_v2.0

Typhoon Message
20191002 01:12

National Meteorological Center No.1122
Analysis Time: Oct. 01th 17 UTC
Name of TC: MITAG
Num. of TC: 1918
Current Location: 30.4°N 122.6°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 25m/s(90km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 300km SE 260km SW 200km NW 280km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs MITAG will moving NNE at speed of 25km/h

TAIWAN

 

 

 

2019/10/01 12:00, Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (201918) , Center Location 29.60N 122.20E, Movement: NNE 22KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 975 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 30m/s, Gust 38m/s, Radius of 15m/s 180km, Radius of 25m/s 60km.

Severe Tropical Storm MITAG (201918)
Analysis
1200UTC 01 October 2019
Center Location 29.60N 122.20E
Movement  N  18km/hr
Minimum Pressure  975 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 30 m/s
Gust 38 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 25m/s  60km

Forecast
12 hours valid at:
0000UTC 02 October 2019
Center Position 31.70N 123.40E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NNE 22 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  980 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 28 m/s
Gust 35 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 50km
24 hours valid at:
1200UTC 02 October 2019
Center Position 33.90N 125.40E
Vector to 24 HR Position
NE 26 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  985 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 25 m/s
Gust 33 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 90km
36 hours valid at:
0000UTC 03 October 2019
Center Position 36.10N 127.80E
Vector to 36 HR Position
NE 27 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  988 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
48 hours valid at:
1200UTC 03 October 2019
Center Position 37.10N 130.40E
Vector to 48 HR Position
ENE 21 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  992 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 170km
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT 48 HOURS

xxxx

South Korea

Typhoon

Forecast Chart

No.18 MITAG

Issued at(KST) : 2019.10.02. 01:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2019.10.01. 15:00 Analysis 30.5 122.6 980 29 104 330
(WSW 270)
Normal Medium NNE 20
2019.10.01. 21:00 Forecast 31.4 123.3 980 29 104 320
(W 260)
Normal Medium NE 19 24
2019.10.02. 03:00 Forecast 32.4 124.2 980 29 104 300
(W 230)
Normal Medium NE 25 48
2019.10.02. 09:00 Forecast 33.5 125.2 985 27 97 280
(WNW 210)
Normal Small NE 25 72
2019.10.02. 15:00 Forecast 34.6 126.5 985 27 97 260
(NW 180)
Normal Small NE 28 110
2019.10.02. 21:00 Forecast 35.7 128.0 990 24 86 240
(NW 160)
Small NE 31 125
2019.10.03. 03:00 Forecast 36.8 129.9 992 23 83 220
(NW 140)
Small ENE 36 140
2019.10.03. 09:00 Forecast 37.7 132.4 994 21 76 200
(NW 120)
Small ENE 40 155
2019.10.03. 15:00 Forecast 38.1 135.2 994 21 76 E 42
rtko63_20191002010018_en

xxxx

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MITAG is currently located near 30.0 N 122.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). MITAG is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Japan
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Shanghai (31.2 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 96 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US scale) or above winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

DrR Mitagg

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

 

WTJP31 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1918 MITAG (1918) 980 HPA
AT 30.2N 122.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 32.6N 124.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 34.7N 126.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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