Indian Ocean (Australia): Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U 07/1800Z nr 15.9S 110.4E, moving S 3 kt (Perth TCWC) – Published 07 Apr 2017 2228z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U

(= CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: TSR)

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Saturday 8 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 5) was located at 2:00 am AWST near
15.9S 110.4E,
that is 790 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 780 km north northwest of
Exmouth] and moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie has continued to intensify over the last 6 hours
and is a category 5 system over open waters northwest of WA. Ernie will
continue to intensify as it slowly tracks towards the south and then turn to
the west-southwest this morning and is expected to begin weakening from late
Saturday or early Sunday.

Gales are not expected on Christmas Island or the WA mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am AWST.

===============================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:16S110E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1835UTC 7 APRIL 2017

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal nine south (15.9S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal four east (110.4E)
Recent movement : south at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 120 knots
Central pressure: 922 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 120 knots near the centre easing to 95 knots by 1800 UTC 08
April.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 08 April: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.2 south 110.0 east
Central pressure 931 hPa.
Winds to 115 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 08 April: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.4 south 109.1 east
Central pressure 953 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 08 April 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar/Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S 08/2100Z POSITION nr 33.4S 43.8E, moving SW at 25 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080215 2220z

Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bulletin du 08 février à 22H18 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI.
Pression estimée au centre: 991 HPA.
Position le 08 février à 22 heures locales: 32.3 Sud / 44.2 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1650 km au secteur: SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 33 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 09/02 à 22h locales, par 35.8 Sud / 40.6 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 10/02 à 22h locales, par 36.8 Sud / 40.1 Est.
SE DISSIPANT,
Centre positionné le 11/02 à 22h locales, par 38.8 Sud / 42.7 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 05H locales
Translation (by google):
Bulletin 08 February at 10:18 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical low pressure system present on the Southwest Indian Ocean.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FUNDI.
Estimated central pressure: 991 HPA.
Position 8 February at 22 am local time: 32.3 South / 44.2 East.
Distance from Reunion coast: 1650 km sector: SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, 33 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 09/02 at 22h local by 35.8 South / 40.6 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 10/02 at 22h local by 36.8 South / 40.1 East.
DISSIPATING,
Center positioned 11/02 at 22h local by 38.8 South / 42.7 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next bulletin to local 05H
WTIO31 FMEE 081825
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20142015
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(TRENTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 18 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :44 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/02/2015 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
24H: 09/02/2015 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2015 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2015 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2015 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2015 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE D’UN CISAILLEMENT ASSEZ FORT DE NORD-NORD-
OUEST ET D’INTRUSION D’AIR PLUS SEC DANS LA CIRCULATION DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE PAR LE NORD-OUEST, LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
APPARAIT, A L’IMAGERIE MSG3, PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE AU NORD DE LA
CONVECTION RESIDUELLE.
CETTE ENTREE D’AIR PLUS SEC ET PLUS FRAIS AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION
MARQUE LE DEBUT DU PROCESSUS D’EXTRA-TROPICALISATION QUI DEVRAIT ETRE
COMPLETE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
COMME PREVU, SOUS L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE (CF Z700 ET Z850) QUI SE RECONSTRUIT AU SUD-EST, FUNDI A
RECOURBE ET RALENTI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE RALENTIR LUNDI EN SE DIRIGEANT GLOBALEMENT
VERS L’OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RETRACTER VERS L’EST MARDI,
FUNDI DEVRAIT ALORS RECOURBER VERS LE SUD ASSEZ LENTEMENT DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS PUIS ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST MERCREDI ET SE DISSIPER
DANS LA NUIT SUIVANTE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D’OUEST DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.
WTIO31 FMEE 081,825
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF LA REUNION
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 12/9/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC ON 02/08/2015:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(THIRTY TWO THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5 / 3.0 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 40 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): 44 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANT (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE 280 SW 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE 190 SW 190 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 02/09/2015 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 035 KT, POST
TROPICAL
24H: 02/09/2015 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 030 KT, POST
TROPICAL
36H: 02/10/2015 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
48H: 02/10/2015 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2015 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2015 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B TREND LATER:
2.C:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH OF NORTHWEST NORTH
INTRUSION OF WEST AND DRIER AIR AVERAGE CIRCULATION
LEVEL BY NORTHWEST FLOW LOW LAYERS
APPEARS IN IMAGING MSG3, PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH
RESIDUAL CONVECTION.
THIS ENTRY AIR DRIER AND COOLER IN TRAFFIC
MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE PROCESS OF EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION THAT SHOULD BE
COMPLETE IN MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY.
AS PROVIDED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW AND MIDDLE RIDGE
LEVEL (CF Z700 AND Z850) WHICH IS REBUILT SOUTHEAST, A FUNDI
CURLED AND SLOW TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW MOVING GENERALLY MONDAY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
BACK THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TO WITHDRAW FROM EASTERN Tuesday,
FUNDI RECURVE SHOULD THEN SOUTH RATHER SLOWLY IN
FIRST TIME THEN ACCELERATE SOUTH-EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DISSIPATE
IN THE NIGHT IN THE WEST OF DISTURBED TRAFFIC
MID-LATITUDE.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1115

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/11S_081732sair.jpg
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 32.8S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 44.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 35.1S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 33.4S 43.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FUNDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTH
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATING AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHICH IS LEAVING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED. TC 11S HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25C. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR IS WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 081634Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE
AND CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 081817

WTIO24 FMEE 081817
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2015
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/02/2015 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, UP TO 450 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS, AND ALSO
LOCALLY UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FUNDI IS PROGRESSIVELY LOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.=

More warnings here:

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Indian Ocean: Very Intense Tropical cyclone EUNICE (8 & 09s) 300600Z near 18.4S / 68.0E, moving SSE at 8 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – Published 300115 0800z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice (8)(09S)

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0915.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09S_292330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300000Z — NEAR 17.7S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 67.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 19.0S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 20.7S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 21.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 22.1S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 25.9S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 31.4S 97.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 31NM EYE. A 292311Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE WELL DEFINED CENTRAL CORE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE SHARP CONSOLIDATED NATURE OF
THE CYCLONE. TC EUNICE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY BELOW A POINT SOURCE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION, TC
09S IS TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
GRADIENT PROLONGING ITS EXPOSURE TO SSTS GREATER THAN 26C. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ENABLING TC EUNICE TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24 TC 09S WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE NER REORIENTS TO THE NORTH.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 09S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 123
WTIO20 FMEE 300608
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2015 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 30/01/2015 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EUNICE) 900 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 68.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH
ERN SEMI CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/130 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CE
NTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTEN
DING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 115 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTE
NDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, E
XTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
19.5 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 130 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL
NNNN

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S 161200Z POSITION nr 21.6 S / 66.4 E, moving SE 16 knots ((RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 160115 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

si201505_5day

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bansi

KML Google Earth

WTIO31 FMEE 161237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20142015
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 926 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SO: 640 NO: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 150
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2015 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
24H: 17/01/2015 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2015 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2015 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
60H: 19/01/2015 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
72H: 19/01/2015 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2015 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 21/01/2015 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5+ ET CI=6.5+
LA SIGNATURE DVORAK S’EST DEGRADEE DEPUIS LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC
UN OEIL DE PLUS DE 45 MN DE DIAMETRE. L’IMAGE MICRO-ONDE F15 DE 1026Z
MONTRE UNE EROSION DU MUR DE L’OEIL COTE OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE MEME
SI LE CI DVORAK EST A 6.5+, L’INTENSITE DU VENT MAX A ETE RETROGRADEE A 110
KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE CES ELEMENTS. BANSI CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER
REGULIEREMENT ET RAPIDEMENT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST.
BANSI DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L’EST-SUD-EST DANS LE
COURANT DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU PLONGER VERS LE SUD-EST.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME PASSE MAINTENANT AU SUD DE LA
DORSALE D’ALTITUDE ET UN TALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SE RAPPROCHE
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. PAR CONSEQUENT LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT ET EN RAISON DE LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS 25S, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACQUERIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES HYBRIDES POST-
TROPICALES DIMANCHE, PUIS EXTRATROPICALES A PARTIR DE LUNDI OU MARDI.
JUSQUE MARDI, LES VENTS NE VONT S’ATTENUER QUE LENTEMENT AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION. MERCREDI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT

ZCZC 570
WTIO30 FMEE 161237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 926 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SW: 640 NW: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/17 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/17 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.5+
THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EYE
DIAMETER MORE LARGE THAN 45 NM. 1026Z F15 MW PICTURE SHOWS AN ERODED
EYE-WALL WESTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, CI IS AT 6.5+ DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINT, BUT INTENSITY OF THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED AT
110 KT. BANSI CONTINUES TO MOVE REGULARLY AND RAPIDLY ON A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
TONIGHT BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD.
WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRA-TROPICAL FROM
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNTIL TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP RAPIDLY.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh0515

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_160530sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 20.0S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 65.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 23.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 24.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 25.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 31.6S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES TC BANSI HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AS THE EYE HAS
CONTRACTED DOWN TO 32NM AS THE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AND DEFINED. HOWEVER, A 160442Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE OBSERVED IN THE MSI ANIMATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP
WHILE KNES INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE AS WIDELY DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TC 05S
IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BE ACCELERATED BY TAU 36
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72
WHICH WILL COMPLETE ETT. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk

See:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201505S.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 151223

WTIO20 FMEE 161228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI) 926 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 200 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 300
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 345 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 420 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VIII_S

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone 04S Kate 280900Z POSITION near 13.8S 92.3E, moving SW at 04 Knots (JTWC) – Updated 281214 0955z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 04S Kate

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta

IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 08:08 WIB 28/12/2014

Siklon Tropis KATE

Kondisi tanggal 28/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 13.1LS, 92.8BT (sekitar 1470 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 2 knots (4 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 80 knots (150 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 29/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 14.7LS, 92.2BT (sekitar 1640 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : Selatan barat daya, kecepatan 4 knots (8 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 80 knots (150 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 30/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 17.0LS, 90.9BT
Arah Gerak : Selatan barat daya, kecepatan 5 knots (10 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 60 knots (110 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 31/12/2014 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 19.4LS, 87.9BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya, kecepatan 7 knots (12 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis KATE memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Bengkulu hingga barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten, dan Samudera Hindia selatan Banten hingga Jawa Tengah.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian lebih dari 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Samudera Hindia barat Sumatera.

IDJ21030
Meteorology and Geophysics
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (the Centre) in Jakarta

INFORMATION BULLETIN TROPICAL CYCLONE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING issued by CENTRE JAKARTA
In: 8:08 PM 12/28/2014

Tropical Cyclone KATE

Conditions dated 28.12.2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 13.1LS, 92.8BT (about 1470 km southwest of Bengkulu)
Motion direction: west, the speed of 2 knots (4 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 80 knots (150 km / h)

Prediction 24 hours, date 12/29/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 14.7LS, 92.2BT (about 1640 km southwest of Bengkulu)
Motion direction: South-west, the speed of 4 knots (8 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 80 knots (150 km / h)

Prediction 48 hours, date 12/30/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 17.0LS, 90.9BT
Motion direction: South-west, the speed of 5 knots (10 km / h) moving away from the region of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 60 knots (110 km / h)

Prediction 72 hours, date 12/31/2014 07:00 pm:
Position: 19.4LS, 87.9BT
Direction Motion: Southwestern, speed 7 knots (12 km / h) moving away from the territory of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed: 50 knots (95 km / h)

IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
KATE tropical cyclone impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:
– A wave with a height of 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters west of Bengkulu to Lampung, southern Sunda Strait, southern waters of Banten, and the Indian Ocean to the south Banten Central Java.
– A wave with a height of more than 3 meters likely to occur in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
280600Z — NEAR 13.6S 92.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 92.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 14.3S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 15.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 16.3S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 17.5S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 20.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 92.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PULSATING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN SIZE AND SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES
TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280542Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED SEVERAL SMALL TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING
INTO AN EYE FEATURE ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN SIZE. A 280230Z ASCAT PASS WAS
UTILIZED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS
SATELLITE DATA, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON AN EVALUATION OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS THE LAST INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS RE-EVALUATED AND
INCREASED UP TO 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC KATE
IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT
TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER
TAU 72. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND DECEASING OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36 AND
THEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR AND COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROUGH
INTERACTION WITH THE STR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA10 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_PERTH / 0642

WTAU05 APRF 280642
IDW23100
40:3:2:24:14S093E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0642UTC 28 DECEMBER 2014

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal eight south (13.8S)
longitude ninety two decimal five east (92.5E)
Recent movement : southwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 971 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre easing to 75 knots by 0600 UTC 29
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 28 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.6 south 92.2 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 29 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.7 south 91.8 east
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 28 December 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 03S BAKUNG 122100Z POSITION nr 10.3S 91.0E, moving WSW at 8knots (JTWC) – Updated 121214 2123z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S BAKUNG

(Warning: Images not updating despite being correct on edit, click on most images to go to source. Check comments for interim updates,)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source) 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0315.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03S_121730sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 122100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121800Z — NEAR 10.2S 91.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 91.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 10.5S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 10.7S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 10.7S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 10.7S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 10.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 11.1S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 11.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 91.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION OBSCURING A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 121557Z ASCAT AND 1556 METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND MORE INTENSE
(40 KNOT) WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR LOOP, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND WIIX AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC BAKUNG IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE,
ALLOWING TC 03S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 72, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SYSTEM TURNING EQUATORWARD
PRIOR TO ITS NORTHERLY DIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (WITHOUT
GFS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

 

NASA’s Hurricane Web Page

SO. INDIAN OCEAN *Full Update* NASA’s Watches Tropical Cyclone Bakung Over Open Ocean
Bakung is moving in a westerly direction over the open waters of the S. Indian Ocean and Aqua captured an image of the sea storm.
STORY: http://www.nasa.gov/c…/goddard/bakung-southern-indian-ocean/

Bakung is moving in a westerly direction over the open waters of the…
nasa.gov

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA VIII_N
METAREA VIII_S

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean: Ex-Tropical Cyclone 24S Jack 220900Z nr 18.1S 95.5E, moving ESE at 12 knots (JTWC) – Updated 220414 1300z

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclonesAUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack

Issued at 2:50 pm WST Tuesday 22 April 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Jack has weakened below cyclone intensity. Gales may persist in the southwest quadrant of the system due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge of high pressure to the south. Please refer to the High Seas Warning (IDY21000) issued by Weather Melbourne.

Name:  Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm April 22 tropical low 17.9S 95.2E 30
+6hr 8 pm April 22 tropical low 18.8S 95.8E 50
+12hr 2 am April 23 tropical low 19.5S 96.2E 70
+18hr 8 am April 23 tropical low 19.8S 96.3E 95
+24hr 2 pm April 23 tropical low 20.0S 96.3E 120
+36hr 2 am April 24 tropical low 19.7S 96.6E 155
+48hr 2 pm April 24 tropical low 19.6S 97.0E 190
+60hr 2 am April 25 tropical low 19.2S 97.2E 225
+72hr 2 pm April 25 tropical low 18.9S 96.9E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system.

 

 

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:33 pm WST on Tuesday 22 April 2014
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack was located at 2 pm WST near 17.9S 95.2E,
that is 660 km south southwest of Cocos Island and moving southeast at 20
kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jack has weakened below cyclone intensity. Gales may persist
in the southwest quadrant of the system due to a strong pressure gradient with
a ridge of high pressure to the south. Please refer to the High Seas Warning
(IDY21000) issued by Weather Melbourne. (G: See below in Maritime section)

No further Information Bulletins will be issued.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2414.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/24S_220530sams.jpg

 

 

 

PGTW 220900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 008 Final Warning
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
220600Z — NEAR 17.8S 95.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 95.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 19.0S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 95.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY-WEAKENED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
INTERACTING WITH AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE SOUTH AND, AS SHOWN
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION, IS LIKELY INFUSING DRY
AIR. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDES SOLID EVIDENCE OF THE RAPID
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SPECIFICALLY, A 220309Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WHILE A 212324Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH BUT
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15
FEET.//
NNNN

 

Other Reports

Near real-time animated map of global wind and weather:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-255.65,-23.98,1071

MARITIME

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S095E999:11:00
SECURITE
CANCELLATION

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0658UTC 22 APRIL 2014

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal nine south (17.9S)
longitude ninety five decimal two east (95.2E)
Recent movement : southeast at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots southwest of the centre
Central pressure: 1002 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
The system has weakened below tropical cyclone intensity, however, gales may
persist in areas to the southwest of the centre.

FORECAST

REMARKS

Please refer to the High Seas Warning IDY21000 issued by Weather Melbourne for
further warnings.

WEATHER PERTH

Ocean Wind Warning 1

40:2:1:04:30S085E25045:11:00
IDY21000
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 0622UTC 22 APRIL 2014
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA.

PLEASE BE AWARE

Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Vigorous southeasterly flow associated with Ex- Tropical Cyclone “Jack” 1002 hPa
near 17.9S095.2E. Ex- Tropical Cyclone “Jack” forecast 1001 hPa near 18.8S095.8E
at 221200UTC, 1002 hPa near 19.5S096.2E at 221800UTC, 1002 hPa near 19.8S096.3E
at 230001UTC and 1001 hPa near 20S096.3E at 230600UTC.

This warning cancels and replaces High Seas Gale Warning (IDW23100) issued by
TCWC Perth.

Area Affected
Bounded by 23S093E 20S090E 18S091E 18S093E 21S095E 23S099E 24S098E 23S093E.
Forecast
SE quarter winds 30/40 knots within 210nm of low in southwestern quadrant west
of 096E, extending throughout area by 221200UTC. Winds increasing to 35/45 knots
within 90nm of low in southwest quadrant. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to
heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

All other warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml

Specialist weather for mariners – passageweather.com
http://www.passageweather.com/maps/sindian/mappage.htm

METAREA X

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean/ Australia: Post-Tropical Depression 15 (22S) EX-IVANOE 060600Z nr 28.1S 87.8E, moving SSE at 27 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 060414 1332z

Tropical Cyclone Ex-IVANHOE

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE) (RSMC LA REUNION)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JTWC)

ZCZC 060
WTIO30 FMEE 060635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/15/20132014
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 87.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/06 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/04/07 06 UTC: 34.7 S / 92.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/04/07 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 96.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2014/04/08 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 101.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/04/08 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 104.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/04/09 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 106.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/10 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 107.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, IVANOE HAS TAKEN A POST-TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH A PERSISTENT WARM CORE WITHI
N THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAYERS UP TO 600 HPA AND A MASSIVE COLD AIR INTRUSION WITHIN THE UPPER LEV
EL LAYERS INSIDE THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET. THE CLOUDY SUMMITS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS SLOWLY WARMING. ON THE LATEST CC SATELLITE PICTURES, THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE BEGIN TO APPEAR WEST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS DETACHING UNDER THE POWER OF THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND-
SHEAR.
THE WINDS STRUCTURE IS VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTRE
IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE FAST MOTION SPEED AND THE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE PRESENT I
N THE EAST.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW/MID LEVELS RIDGES PRESENT IN ITS NORTH AND EAST AND AN APPROAC
HING POLAR TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON A RAPID SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL TOMOR
ROW MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK, THE SST DECREASE VERY RAPIDLY AND BECOME VERY INSUFFICIENT.
FROM MONDAY IN THE DAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT AN EASTWARD THEN NORTH-EASTWARD TRACK BY TERMINATI
NG ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION AND BY FILLING UP. IT MAY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WEST OF AU
STRALIAN COASTS.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2214.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/22S_052330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
060000Z — NEAR 25.5S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 86.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 30.0S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 33.3S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (IVANOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 995 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 052347Z
SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW DVORAK
FIX DATA AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A LARGE FLARE OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD. TC 22S IS
ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING TC 22S
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE THE FIRST PHASE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE
SHOULD ENABLE TC 22P TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING
AT 061500Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

MARITIME

ZCZC 985
WTIO20 FMEE 060619
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/04/2014 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 06/04/2014 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (EX-IVANOE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 87.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENT
RE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EX
TENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/06 AT 18 UTC:
32.2 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/04/07 AT 06 UTC:
34.7 S / 92.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
STRONGESTS WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NNNN

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar/ Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone (21S) HELLEN 010300Z nr 17.2S 46.0E, moving SSE at 5 knots (JTWC) Overland Depression (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 010414 0718z

Tropical Cyclone 21S Hellen

OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN) RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. (RSMC La Reunion)

ZCZC 073
WTIO30 FMEE 010013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/14/20132014
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/01 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
24H: 2014/04/02 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2014/04/02 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/04/03 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2014/04/03 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2014/04/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/05 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. THE RESI
DUAL LLCC, OVERLAND, IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
ACCORDING TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A MOVEMENT WEST TO SOUTH
WESTWARD FOR THE RESIDUAL LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST TO N
ORTH-EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-BUILDING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE.
NONE OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, INCLUDING THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE PREVISION, FORECASTS A RE-
INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE LOW WILL COME BACK OVER SEA AND CROSS THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.
LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE RSMC LA REUNION UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Apr, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HELLEN (21S) currently located near 17.0 S 46.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2114.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21S_312330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010000Z — NEAR 17.0S 46.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 46.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.7S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 46.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HELLEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) REVEALS THAT TC HELLEN HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME RAGGED AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED AWAY AND SHALLOWED. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION CONTINUE
TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TRACKING TC 21S BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH A CHANCE OF
REGENERATION WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE AFRICAN LANDMASS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING /

ZCZC 343
WTIO24 FMEE 311832 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2014 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INLAND 14 (EX-HELLEN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 45.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UP TO 25 NM FROM
THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, INLAND
24H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

 

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/indian/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Indian Ocean/ Australia/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone Gillian 251200Z nr 20.4S 103.7E, moving S at 07 knots (TCWC Perth) Max winds 50 knots – Updated 250314 1805z

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Indian Ocean MH370 missing aircraft Search & Rescue assets be aware.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Issued at 8:37 pm WST Tuesday 25 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Gillian is moving steadily in a south to southwesterly direction, well away from the Australian mainland.

Gillian is continuing to weaken and should drop below tropical cyclone intensity Wednesday morning.

 

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 25 2 20.4S 103.7E 55
+6hr 2 am March 26 1 20.8S 103.4E 80
+12hr 8 am March 26 1 21.2S 103.3E 100
+18hr 2 pm March 26 tropical low 21.4S 103.1E 125
+24hr 8 pm March 26 tropical low 21.5S 102.7E 145
+36hr 8 am March 27 tropical low 21.3S 101.5E 180
+48hr 8 pm March 27 tropical low 21.2S 100.0E 220
+60hr 8 am March 28 tropical low 21.2S 98.0E 255
+72hr 8 pm March 28 tropical low 21.0S 96.7E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

 

 

(Goaty: See information on Tropical cyclone intensity)

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 20:07 WIB 25/03/2014

Siklon Tropis GILLIAN

Kondisi tanggal 25/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 20.4LS, 103.7BT (sekitar 1620 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : selatan, kecepatan 7 knots (13 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 26/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.5LS, 102.7BT (sekitar 1760 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : Barat, bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 27/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.2LS, 100.0BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 20 knots (35 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 28/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.0LS, 96.7BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 15 knots (30 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis GILLIAN ini memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Gelombang laut 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Enggano – Bengkulu, Perairan barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is issued by JAKARTA CENTRE
In : 20:07 pm 03/25/2014
 

Tropical Cyclone Gillian 

Conditions dated 25/03/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 20.4LS , 103.7BT ( approximately 1620 miles south southwest of New York)
Motion direction : south , speed of 7 knots ( 13 km / h ) moving away from the territory of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed ​​: 50 knots ( 95 km / h )
 

Predicted 24- hour , date 03/26/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.5LS , 102.7BT ( approximately 1760 miles south southwest of New York)
Motion Direction : West , moving away from the territory of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 30 knots ( 55 km / h )
 

Prediction 48 hours , date 03/27/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.2LS , 100.0BT
Motion Direction : West moving away from parts of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 20 knots ( 35 km / h )
 

Prediction 72 hours , date 03/28/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.0LS , 96.7BT
Motion Direction : West moving away from parts of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 15 knots ( 30 km / h )
 

IMPACT OF WEATHER IN INDONESIA :
Gillian tropical cyclone is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as :
– Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters Enggano – Bengkulu , Lampung western waters , the southern part of the Sunda Strait , waters south of Banten

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1714.gif

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_250532sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 19.6S 103.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 103.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 20.4S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 20.7S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 103.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 250532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 250519Z AMSR2 PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 17P IS
CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:20S104E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1241UTC 25 MARCH 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Gillian was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal four south (20.4S)
longitude one hundred and three decimal seven east (103.7E)
Recent movement : south at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 988 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semi circle, extending
to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0600 UTC 26
March.

Winds above 48 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell until 1200 UTC 25 March.

Winds above 34 knots within 30 nautical miles of the centre in the northwest
quadrant, extending to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other
quadrants, with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell until 0600
UTC 26 March.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.2 south 103.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 21.5 south 102.7 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 March 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

METAREA XI

METAREA X

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com/maps/oceania/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 08S COLIN 100900Z nr 12.7S 83.1E, moving WSW at 13 knots (JTWC) – 100114 1125z

Tropical Cyclone Colin

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC 278
WTIO30 FMEE 100726
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (COLIN)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 83.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 170 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/10 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/01/11 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/11 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/01/12 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/01/12 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2014/01/13 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/14 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2014/01/15 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5+
THE DEEP CONVECTION FLUCTUATED WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RELATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS DEGRADE A LITTLE.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE METEOSAT7
MULTISPECTRAL PICTURES.
THE MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO THE
BUOY 56552 MEASURED PRESSURE AT 09/21Z, VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AT
THAT TIME.
THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A REGULAR
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAYS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RELAX AS SYSTEM SHIFTS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WINDOW OF DEEPENING UP TO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE SLOW DEEPENING AT FIRST, SHOULD
ACCELERATE A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
FROM TUESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE WITH COLDER SST
AND THE STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN
TO WEAKEN.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0814.gif

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 12.5S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 83.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 13.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 14.1S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 15.2S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 16.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 19.2S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 22.3S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 27.4S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO PERSIST OVER A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A DEEP BAND OF
CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC, BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY THE
SYSTEM’S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH
WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD.
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND
110900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

ZCZC 214
WTIO20 FMEE 100656
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2014 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/01/2014 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (COLIN) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 83.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE WESTER
N SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDIN
G UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EX
TENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/01/10 AT 18 UTC:
14.4 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2014/01/11 AT 06 UTC:
15.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL
NNNN

RODRIGUES/ Mauritius/ LaRéunion: Tropical Cyclone/Storm Amara 222100Z nr 22.8S 68.1E, moving ESE at 6 knots (JTWC) – 221213 2250z

MODERATE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM/

Tropical Cyclone (02) Amara

 

= Tropical Storm (below Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 

MASCARENES ISLANDSMauritius, Runion and Rodrigues BEWARE!

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

ZCZC 096
WTIO30 FMEE 221911
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/2/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (AMARA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 67.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SW: 370 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/12/23 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/12/24 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2013/12/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2013/12/25 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2013/12/25 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/26 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2013/12/27 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5-
THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY DESTRUCTURED WITH THE CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
DEEP CONVECTION. 1725Z ASCAT PATH CONFIRMS THIS INTENSITY AND SHOWS STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHER
N PART OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AMARA SHOULD KEEP A SOUTH-EASTWARD OR EASTWARD TRACK IN RELATIONSHIP WIT
H A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNDERGOING THE STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICA
L WIND-SHEAR.
FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD GO BACK WESTWARD WITH THE STEERING FLOW OF T
HE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.
AS BRUCE SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF AMARA AT THIS TIME, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINT
Y IN THE TIMING OF THIS RECURVING SCENARIO.
NNNN

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0314.gif

(Image: JTWC) TC Warning Graphic (Click image for source)

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03S_200530sams.jpg

(Image: JTWC) IR Satellite Imagery (Click image for source)

WTXS31 PGTW 222100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221800Z — NEAR 22.8S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 68.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 22.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 22.8S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 22.6S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DEVOLVE AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SHEARED AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY OVER
50 NM. A 221513Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC HAS STARTED
TO ELONGATE AND THE CONVECTION HAS CONSIDERABLY SHALLOWED. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF
THE LLCC AND SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (30+ KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING ANY POSITIVE
EFFECTS OF SOME EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL ACT TO SLOW TC
03S, LEADING TO QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING
TC AMARA BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
DISSIPATION, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF TC 03S WILL TRACK BACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH, ALTHOUGH, AT A VERY WEAKENED STATE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE VARIATION IN THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Dec, 2013 6:00 GMT

(No update for 22 Dec 2013)

 

 

 

Very Intense TC AMARA (03S) currently located near 20.1 S 64.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

 

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

TSR Storm Tracker Map

 

MARITIME

 

ZCZC 829
WTIO20 FMEE 220611
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2013
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 22/12/2013 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (AMARA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2013/12/22 AT 18 UTC:
22.2 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2013/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
22.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
NNNN

Indian Ocean/ Rodrigues/ Mauritius: Tropical Depression 2 151800Z nr 14.0S 76.3E, moving W at 9 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – 151213 2010z

PLEASE SEE UPDATE >>>>>>>

RODRIGUES (Mauritius) Intense Tropical Cyclone Amara 200900Z nr 18.5S 65.0E, moving WSW at 6 knots (JTWC) 2012131625z

Tropical Cyclone #01B #ONE #MAHASEN 160900Z near 23.7N 91.7E, moving NNE at 22 knots (JTWC). Landfall Bangladesh about 160200Z – 160513 1445z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

R S M C Bulletin

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO.43
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM MAHASENADVISORY ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 16
th
MAY 2013 BASED
ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 16
TH
MAY 2013.
THE CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS DURING PAST 6 HOURS AT A SPEED OF ABOUT 50 KMPH AND CROSSED
BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN CHITTAGONG AND FENI, NEAR LATITUDE 22.8ºN AND
LONGITUDE 91.4ºE (ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF FENI), AROUND 1330 HOURS IST OF TODAY,
THE 16
TH
MAY 2013.

IT LAY CENTRED AT 1430 HOURS IST OF 16
TH
MAY 2013 OVER
BANGLADESH NEAR LATITUDE 23.5
0
N AND LONGITUDE 92.0
0
E, ABOUT 75 KM SOUTHWEST OF
AIZAL (42727) AND 85 KM SOUTHEAST OF AGARTALA (42724). IT WOULD MOVE NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION
IS SEEN OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, BANGLADESH, TRIPURA,
MIZORAM, MANIPUR, NAGALAND, MEGHALAYA, ASSAM, WEST ARUNACHAL PRADESH AND
NORTH ARAKAN COAST ADJOINING MYANMAR. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE
(CTT) IS ABOUT -51
0
C.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA OVER
NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES,
ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category
16-05-2013/0900 23.5/92.0 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
16-05-2013/1200 24.0/92.5 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression
16-05-2013/1800 25.5/94.0 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
17-05-2013/0000 26.5/95.5 25-35 gusting to 45 Low
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.

Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

Time of issue: 1900 hours IST Dated: 16-05-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 01/2013/33
Sub: Cyclonic Storm, MAHASEN weakened into Deep depression over Mizoram
The cyclonic storm MAHASEN over Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and
weakened into a deep depression and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of 16
th
May 2013 over
Mizoram near latitude 24.0
0
N and longitude 92.5
0
E, about 35 km North of Aizal. It would move
northeastwards and weaken into a depression during next 6 hours.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques,
estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST) Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category
16-05-2013/1730 24.0/92.5 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
16-05-2013/2330 25.5/94.0 35-45 gusting to 55 Depression
17-05-2013/0530 26.5/95.5 25-35 gusting to 45 Low
Under the influence of this system, Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy
falls at a isolated places would occur over South and east Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura
and Nagaland during next 24 hours.
Squally wind speed reaching 50 -60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph would prevail over
South Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura and Nagaland during next 12 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of the 17
th
May, 2013.

(Image: RSMC NEW DELHI) Observed & Forecast Track (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Track (Click image for source)

(Image: JTWC) Multispectral Satellite Imagery (Click image for source)

WTIO31 PGTW 160900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN) WARNING NR 025//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN) WARNING NR 025

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

160600Z NEAR 23.0N 91.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 025 DEGREES AT 22 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 91.0E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z 25.8N 93.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:

160900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 91.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM

SOUTHEASTWARD OF DHAKA, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD

AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC MAHASEN HAS MADE LANDFALL

NORTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH AND IS RAPIDLY FALLING APART AS

THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. RADAR IMAGERY FROM KOLKATA,

INDIA ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE RAPID WEAKENING AS CONVECTION HAS

SHALLOWED. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE

WESTERLIES AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN INDIA WHILE CONTINUALLY

WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS RUGGED TERRAIN AND HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS)

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01B WILL DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS IN THE

NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL

WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone One

(wunderground.com)

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type
————————————————————-

06 GMT 05/10/13 4.8N 93.6E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/10/13 5.5N 92.7E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/10/13 6.1N 91.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/11/13 7.0N 91.0E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/11/13 7.7N 90.2E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/11/13 8.8N 88.8E 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/11/13 9.3N 88.1E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/12/13 10.2N 86.9E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/12/13 10.0N 87.3E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/12/13 10.2N 87.0E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/12/13 10.7N 86.7E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/13/13 11.5N 86.7E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/13/13 11.8N 86.4E 60 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/13/13 12.4N 85.7E 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/13/13 12.9N 85.4E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/14/13 13.7N 85.3E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/14/13 14.2N 85.8E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/14/13 14.8N 86.2E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/14/13 15.4N 86.7E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/15/13 16.4N 87.3E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/15/13 17.5N 87.8E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/15/13 18.5N 88.4E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/15/13 19.6N 89.1E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/16/13 20.5N 89.9E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/16/13 23.0N 91.0E 50 Tropical Storm

TSR logoN Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 May, 2013 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm MAHASEN (01B) currently located near 23.0 N 91.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for TS is 90% currently
Bangladesh
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
probability for TS is 75% currently
Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Tropical storm Mahasen struck Bangladesh at about 02:00 GMT on 16 May.

Source: Tropical Storm Risk Thu, 16 May 2013 08:20 AM

Author: Tropical Storm Risk

Tropical storm Mahasen struck Bangladesh at about 02:00 GMT on 16 May.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall was near 21.1 N, 90.2 E.Mahasen brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 92 km/h (57 mph).Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL).

Refugees Refuse to move ahead of Mahasen

Published on May 15, 2013 by

cyclone

Thousands of Muslim Refugees along the Burma coastline are refusing to evacuate ahead of Cyclone Mahasen.

Camps dot the Burma coastline after thousands fled Clashes between Buddhist and Muslims over the past year.  Sittwe is where the largest of the evacuations are taking place.  A low lying area near the coast where thousands of make shift homes have been set up.  Most of these “buildings” are made out of mud, cloth and wood.

But, Reuters reports that many of the residents are refusing to leave and move yet again. One resident was quoted as saying “I lost my mother and two imagesyoung daughters during the clashes between Muslims and Rakhine (Buddhists) last year. I lost everything. That’s why I pray to Allah to let all the people from here die with the storm. I don’t want to go nowhere. I’ll stay here. If I die, I want to die here.”

Even Myanmar’s Vice PresidentNyan Tun visits the internal displaced people camp in Rakhine states on Tuesday (May 14) to persuade them to relocate but many refuse to go.

The storm already taking the lives of nearly 100 people yesterday in a boat capsizing. In Sri Lanka seven deaths due to heavy rains was reported.  These low lying camps and the people that live in them if they stay in place ahead of this storm they will be putting themselves at a serious risk. Cyclone Mahasen is not a severe storm by any means. And most first world countries would laugh at this storm as a minor nuisance. But these villages where the storm is headed will under severe threat.

.” – westernpacificweather.com

For complete updates please check out our Tropical Information Center. 

What makes Mahansen so dangerous

Published on May 13, 2013 by

“Cyclone Mahansen continues to be only forecasted to become a equivalent of a weak typhoon before landfall in Bangladesh on Thursday. To many around the world and especially first world countries this sounds like a gentle breeze to ride out in the coming days.

Yet many of those living in low lying areas in Myanmar this storm is a very real and serious threat.   Nearly 130,000 people are living in makeshift camps near the coastal plains of the country after fleeing violence between clashes Buddhist and Muslims in western portions of the country. These cyclonecamps are not made to withstand cyclone, even a weak one. And this pending storms brings the threat of a disaster if it is to hit of these refugee camps as a Severe Cyclonic System.

At this time the worst of the storm is forecasted to stay west but with the pending track still uncertain. Even if the was to miss the refugee camps a heavy rainfall would still bring harsh conditions for those who make the area home.  We hope for the safety of those ahead of the storm.

It would be easy to say this area is used to deadly storms. In 2008 the country suffered 180,000 casualties when a cyclone hit the Irrawaddy River delta.  In 1991 a cyclone hit a little farther north in Bangledesh resulting in the deaths of 350,000 people.

” – westernpacificweather.com

Storm Surge Inundates 25 villages in Bangladesh

Published on May 16, 2013 by

This article comes from https://chittagong.recovers.org/ , if you need help or wish to help the recovery efforts from this storm please click the link.

CYCLONE MAHASEN Storm surge inundates 25 Patuakhali villages STAR ONLINE REPORT At least 25 villages of four upazilas of Patuakhali were flooded Wednesday night as storm surge washed away flood control dams with the Cyclone Mahasen approaching the coastal region.

Many of the marooned people of the villages rushed to cyclone shelters and other high lands after the high tide stormed made way into their villages stormaround 11:00pm, our Patuakhali correspondent reported.

The upazilas are: Kolapara, Golachipa, Rangabali and Dashmina.

The storm surge of at least five feet height was reported in the villages.

Meanwhile, the Patuakhali town went under at least four feet of tide early morning as a drizzle continues to pour since Wednesday evening.

Our correspondent reported that the local Met office recorded a 60kph wind in the town last night. It is 70kph in Kuakata, a popular tourist destination.

Some of the inundated people have yet to leave their houses for safer place.

UN OCHA Flash Update 6, Cyclone Mahasen, Bangladesh and Myanmar

“Tropical Cyclone Mahasen, which has been downgraded to a tropical storm, made landfall in Bangladesh on the morning of 16 May (local time), bringing strong winds and heavy rains to Chittagong and surrounding districts. On its current path, it will continue to move northeast from Myanmar and towards the eastern states of India. The current speed at the centre of the storm is around 80 km/h and is expected to reduce its wind speed to 55 km/h as it continues to move inland.

In Bangladesh, an estimated one million people were evacuated from 13 coastal districts in the 24-hour prior to the arrival of the storm. A tidal surge has caused floods in the districts of Barguna, Bhola, Patuakhali, Nohakhali and Laxmipur. The Government has not declared a disaster, and no request for international assistance has been received at this time.

The United Nations met this morning in Dhaka and committed to working collaboratively with the Government and to provide support where required. Humanitarian partners report they are ready to respond. While people have moved to evacuation centres, there have been some instances of resistance due to multiple factors including changes in weather conditions.

The Bangladesh Government, through its Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) has broadcast pre-cyclone Public Service Announcements (PSAs), carrying preparedness messages endorsed by the Department of Disaster Management via national radio. Post-cyclone messages for affected people are on standby to be broadcast immediately after the cyclone has passed.

A distribution plan for food assistance has been developed by humanitarian agencies, to supplement Government food and cash reserves. Essential nutrition and emergency WASH supplies have been pre-positioned for approximately 43,000 households in vulnerable districts. More than 6,000 family kits and two mobile water treatment units have been transferred to Chittagong.

In Myanmar, while it appears that the storm has moved further away from Rakhine state, heavy rain is still expected. Approximately 250 staff members of humanitarian organisations are in country and remain on standby and ready to respond; a number of them with expertise in rapid assessments. Assessment teams will begin assessment of affected sites as soon as possible after the storm subsides.

Assessment teams and protection monitoring continued working today at various camps with the assistance of community leaders, religious leaders, and international aid workers to help alleviate concerns of those resistant to move.

The government estimates nearly 78,000 people from 13 townships in Rakhine State have been relocated in total. UN agencies maintain that all measures must be taken to ensure that no lives are under undue threat. Some communities continued to resist relocatation to Government buildings but were eventually persuaded to move into other nearby locations, including schools, madrasas, and with host communities.

OCHA, UNHCR and UNICEF led training sessions today for staff on inter-sectoral rapid assessment, as agencies and humanitarian partners will initiate a post-storm assessment process across Rakhine in the coming days. The assessment will address the current needs of people in the relocation sites as well as requirements for their future return. At this time, it is unclear when the relocated communities will return to their places of temporary settlement, or whether other options will be made available for some.

Although Mahasen has passed Rakhine State, it is clear that many thousands are still accommodated in areas which make them more vulnerable to the elements and this must not continue. The Government of the United Kingdom today pledged a £4.4 million (US$6.7 million) humanitarian aid package for IDPs in Rakhine State ahead of the cyclone and rainy seasons. The aid package will provide 80,000 people with access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation facilities; treatment for malnourished children; and, hygiene kits for 40,000 people.

OCHA expects to issue another Flash Update tomorrow.” – unocha

Cyclone Mahasen hits Bangladeshi coast

(Video credit:AlJazeeraEnglish)

Published on 16 May 2013

Hundreds of thousands of people in Bangladesh have been evacuated, as Cyclone Mahasen approached one of the poorest countries in Asia with winds of around 100km per hour. Similar measures have been taken in Myanmar however, some displaced people in Rakhine state have ignored calls for them to evacuate camps. The UN said that more than 4.1 million people could be at risk from the cyclone, which started crossing Bangladesh’s low-lying coast on Thursday.

MARITIME

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1750

WTIN01 DEMS 151750

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 900 UTC 15 MAY 2013

PART I:- STORM WARNING

PART II:-

THE CYCLONIC STORM (MAHASEN) OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF

BENGAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC

OF YESTERDAY THE, 14TH MAY 2013 WITHIN HALF A DEG. OF

LAT. 14.5 DEG. N / LONG. 86.0 DEG. E, ABOUT 850 KMS

NORTHWEST OF PORTBLAIR, 460 KMS SOUTHEAST OFVISHAKHAPATNAM

650 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PARADIP 1060 KMS SOUTHWEST OF

CHITTAGONG (.)IT MOVED FURTHER NORTHEASTWARDS AND NOW

LIES CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY THE,15TH MAY 2013

WITHIN HALF A DEG. OF LAT. 16.5 DEG.N /LONG. 87.0 EG.E,

ABOUT 800 KMS NORTH WEST OF PORT BLAIR,380 KMS EAST

SOUTHEAST OF SHKHAPAYNAM,520 KMS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

PARADIP AND 820 KMS SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG (.)IT

WOULD INESIFY FURTHER AND MOVE EASTWARDS AND CROSS

BANGLA DESH COAST DURING NIGHT OF16TH MAY 2013(.)

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVOURABLE FOR ONSET OF

SOUTHWEST MONSOON OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING

SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL DURING NEXT 48 HOURS(.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80

DEG.E(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-

1)N OF 05 DEG N:MAINLY NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

2)S OF 05 DEG N:SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-

1)N OF 05 DEG N:MAINLY NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

2)S OF 05 DEG N:SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

ARB: A2 ARABIAN SEA N. OF 10 DEG N.AND W OF 80 DEG E(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

BOB:A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N AND EOF 80 DEG

E(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2-3 M (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2-3 M (.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E

(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-0-1 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-5-6 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-0-1 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-5-6 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : NicobarComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Portblair
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-5.0 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hours of 16-05-2013 along the west and east coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : AndamanComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Portblair
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-5.0 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hours of 16-05-2013 along the west and east coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : Tamil NaduComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry
High wind waves in the range of 2.5 5.0 meters are predicted during 02:30 hrs on 16-05-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 17-05-2013 along the Kolachal to kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : OrissaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Gopalpur
High wind waves in the range of 2.5 to 4.8 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 16-05-2013 along the coast from Gopalpur to Baleshwar of Orissa coast.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Gopalpur

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : West Bengal
High wind waves in the range of 2.5 to 4.8 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 16-05-2013 along the coast from False point to Sagar Island of West Bengal coast.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Sagar-Roads

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : KeralaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Kollam
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-4.5 meters are forecasted during 02:30 hours on 16-05-2013 to 23:30 hours of 17-05-2013 along the Kerala coast between Vizhinjam to Kasargod.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Quilon

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : LakshadweepComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Agatti
High wind waves in the range of 2.0-3.6 meters are forecasted during 0830 hours on 15-05-2013 to 2330 hours of 17-05-2013 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Minicoy

images
Kalpana Image

Tropical Cyclone #01B #ONE #MAHASEN 120900Z near 10.2N 87.1E, moved NW at 12 knots (JTWC) – 120513 0900z

Updated…. please go here:

Tropical Cyclone #01B #ONE #MAHASEN 130900Z near 12.1N 86.3E, moved NW at 04 knots (JTWC) 1305130900z

India to Myanmar Possible Targets for Developing Tropical Cyclone

Early warning saves lives!
Related
Tropical Cyclone 24S 091200Z nr 7.6S 86.0E, moving SE at 07 knots (RSMC LaReunion) – 090513 1550z:
http://wp.me/p2k2mU-1Ps

TheSurvivalPlaceBlog

By Eric Leister

A large zone of unsettled weather near and south of India has resulted in the formation of one tropical cyclone, and another may form soon.

The first area, just east of Sri Lanka, will pose the greatest threat to land, as the potential tropical cyclone could bring impacts to areas from India to Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Farther south, Tropical Cyclone 24S formed on Wednesday from this broad area of unsettled weather.

The above satellite image from Thursday shows clouds associated with Tropical Cyclone 24S well south of India. Also seen is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms just southeast of Sri Lanka that could develop into another tropical cyclone.

Close monitoring of the area near Sri Lanka will be needed into the upcoming weekend for possible development.

If tropical development does occur to the east of Sri Lanka, the expected track of this tropical cyclone…

View original post 106 more words

TD #24S #JAMALA 111200Z nr 10.5S 87.5E, moving E at 04 knots (RSMC LaReunion) – 110513 1255z

(Image: JTWC) IR Satellite Imagery (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

ZCZC 449

WTIO30 FMEE 110629

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20122013

1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-JAMALA)

2.A POSITION 2013/05/11 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 87.3 E

(TEN DECIMAL CINQ DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL

THREE DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 170 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 180

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2013/05/11 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

24H: 2013/05/12 06 UTC: 11.2 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

36H: 2013/05/12 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

48H: 2013/05/13 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2013/05/13 18 UTC: 11.3 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2013/05/14 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2013/05/15 06 UTC: 12.1 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

120H: 2013/05/16 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=1.5 AND CI=2.5

JAMALA KEEPS ON SUFFERING FROM THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR AND A

LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTH-EAST OF THE

CONVECTION THAT HAS WARMED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS EFFICIENT POLEWARD.

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SUGGEST

GENERALLY A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION. SUNDAY, WITHIN THE LOW AND MID

LEVELS, A RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. JAMALA IS THEREFORE

EXPECTED TO RECURVE AND PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE ON A WESTWARDS

TRACK. IT SHOULD KEEP THIS TRACK UP TO THE END OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD.

ON THIS TRACK THE UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO

WEAKEN, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SUFFERING OF THE LACK OF UPPER

DIVERGENCE. ON AND AFTER MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD

IMPROVE ET A SLIGHT RE-GENERATION OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE. ON

AND AFTER WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN

AGAIN AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS

UNCERTAIN .=

NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TCFA Graphic (Click image for source)

WTXS31 PGTW 110900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 007//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 007

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

110600Z — NEAR 10.6S 87.3E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 87.3E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

111800Z — 11.0S 87.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:

120600Z — 11.3S 86.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:

121800Z — 11.3S 85.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

130600Z — 11.1S 83.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:

140600Z — 11.3S 79.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:

150600Z — 11.8S 74.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:

160600Z — 12.1S 71.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:

110900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 87.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN CONVECTION WELL DISPLACED FROM

THE LLCC IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL

POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO

THE WELL DEFINED AND EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KNOTS AS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND THE LATEST CIRA RAMMB

PRODUCT SHOWS AN INTENSITY OF 37 KNOTS. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED

WITHIN A POOR TO MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)

EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BEING OFFSET BY

FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING

SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY IN AN OVERALL WEAK

STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT

INTENSITY DUE TO THE STRONG VWS. AFTER TAU 24, TC 24S SHOULD TURN

WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE

OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S SHOULD BEGIN TO

INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE

UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VWS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF

60 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, COOL DRY AIR FROM THE

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE

SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S

WESTWARD, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THIS TURN AND THE

ACCELERATION OF THE WESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY

FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF AND GFS

SOLUTIONS, DUE TO AN ERRATIC UKMO SOLUTION. DUE TO THE OVERALL GOOD

AGREEMENT OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE

FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 14

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//

NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Jamala

(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
————————————————————-
12 GMT 05/08/13 6S 83.9E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/08/13 6.1S 85.4E 45 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/09/13 6.1S 85.4E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/09/13 7S 85.5E 45 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/09/13 8.1S 86.0E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/10/13 8.7S 86.2E 45 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/10/13 9.4S 86.7E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/11/13 10.6S 87.3E 40 Tropical Storm

MARITIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 20/1 May 11 2013 – 12:23:01 UTC

WTIO20 FMEE 111211

SECURITE

WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/05/2013

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 009/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/05/2013 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 (EX-JAMALA) 1000 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 87.5 E

(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,

EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND IN

THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM

THE CENTRE REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND VERY ROUGH

SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BY GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2013/05/12 AT 00 UTC:

11.1 S / 87.8 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

24H, VALID 2013/05/12 AT 12 UTC:

11.6 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:

LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

HIGH SEAS FORECAST

FQIO25 FIMP 110100

1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S),METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS, SATURDAY 11 MAY 2013 AT 0045 UTC

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM JAMALA HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION EX-JAMALA 997 HPA.

AT 0000Z, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 SOUTH

86.9EAST ( NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL

NINE DEGREES EAST).

MOVEMENT SOUTH SOUTH EAST 05 KT.

SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,

EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND ALSO WITHIN

A PERIPHERAL BAND STRETCHING BETWEEN 11S AND 14E FROM 83E TO 94E.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTER

N QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180

NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT

AND VERY ROUGH SEAS FROM 50 MN TO 85 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN

THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN OF THIS SERIES UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 11 MAY 2013 AT 0000 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-JAMALA 997 HPA NEAR 9.8S 86.9E.

MOVEMENT SOUTH SOUTH EAST 05KT.

WAVE NEAR 03S 46E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 20S 70E, 24S 73E, 30S 75E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 25S 81E, 21S 86E, 21S 91E.

HIGH 1034 HPA NEAR 35S 95E.

HIGH 1029 HPA NEAR 37S 29E.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 25S 51E, 31S 56E, 36S 61E.

PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO SUNDAY 12 MAY 2013 AT 0000 UTC.

EAST 8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EAST NORTH EASTERLY 10-20 IN NORTH.

NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY 10-20 IN SOUTH. LOCALLY GUSTY SEA

MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. FEW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN

SHOWERS.

WEST 8/1: NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY 05-10 IN NORTH. NORTH WESTERLY

15-25 IN SOUTH. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE IN

NORTH, ROUGH IN SOUTH. FEW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY GOOD EXCEPT IN

SHOWERS.

8/2: NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY 15-20 IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. EAST

SOUTH EASTERLY 20-30 IN NORTH. EASTERLY TO EAST NORTH EASTERLY IN

REMAINING SOUTH. GUSTING 35-40 IN NORTH EAST. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY

VERY ROUGH IN NORTH EAST. FEW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN

SHOWERS.

8/3: SOUTH EASTERLY 15-25. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35. SEA MODERATE IN

EXTREME SOUTH WEST, ROUGH ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY

GOOD.

8/4: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 20-30. LOCALLY GUSTING

35-40. SEA ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH IN EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EAST

AND CENTRAL NORTH. FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NORTH. VISIBILITY

POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/5: SOUTH EASTERLY 10-20 TURNING TO SOUTH WESTERLY 05-10 IN EXTREME

NORTH. LOCALLY GUSTING 25-30. SEA MODERATE IN NORTH, ROUGH IN

SOUTH. ISOLATED THUNERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

SOUTH 8/6: AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

NORTH 8/6: SOUTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY 10-20 IN WEST. WEST NORTH

WESTERLY TO NORTH WESTERLY 10-20 IN EAST. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-40.

SEA ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/7: SOUTH EASTERLY 10-25 TURNING TO SOUTHERLY 10-15 IN EXTREME

NORTH. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35 IN SOUTH EAST. SEA ROUGH IN SOUTH EAST

AND CENTER, MODERATE ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTH WITH

THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

EX-JAMALA EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AGAIN=

END

Indian Ocean Hemispheres Tropical Cyclone and Latest WestPac Updates

Tropical Cyclone 21S #IMELDA TD/SS-TS 160900Z 21.2S 62.9E, moving SE at 05 knots (JTWC) 160413 0950z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: metservice.intnet.mu)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

METEO FRANCE LA REUNION

BULLETIN DU 16 AVRIL A 10H22 LOCALES:

IL N’Y A PAS D’ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE MENACE CYCLONIQUE N’EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES
**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L’OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-IMELDA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA
POSITION LE 16 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 21.0 SUD / 62.9 EST
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES : 735 KM AU SECTEUR: EST
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST A 11 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 17/04 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 22.0 S / 61.8 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 18/04 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 23.0 S / 55.4 E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D’INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

————————————————-

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN VERS 17H LOCALES.

 

 

 

BULLETIN OF 16 APRIL 10:22 LOCAL:

THERE IS NO ALERT DURING A # lareunion AND NO THREAT CYCLONE IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
**************************************************

NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN

EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA
PRESSURE ESTIMATED CENTER: 999 HPA
POSITION ON 16 APRIL TO 10 HOURS LOCAL: SOUTH 21.0 / 62.9 IS
(TWENTY ONE ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE TWO DEGREES EAST)

DISTANCE FROM COAST Reunion: 735 KM AREA: IS
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 11 KM / H

THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

VACUUM FILLING UP,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 17/04 BY A LOCAL 10H: 22.0 S / 61.8 E

VACUUM FILLING UP,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 18/04 BY A LOCAL 10H: 23.0 S / 55.4 E

WARNING: THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE PREVIOUS TO CONSIDER WITH EXTREME CAUTION IN VIEW OF THEIR UNCERTAINTY. THEY RELATE TO THE CENTRE OF THE PHENOMENON, WITHOUT REGARD TO ITS EXTENSION.

————————————————-

THIS BULLETIN IS NOW COMPLETE.
NEXT BULLETIN TO LOCAL 17H.

 

 

 

RSMC (Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre ) LA REUNION

 

 

 

ZCZC 963

WTIO30 FMEE 160622 CCA

***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/10/20122013

1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-IMELDA)

2.A POSITION 2013/04/16 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 62.9 E

(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL

NINE DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

34 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN

1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2013/04/16 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

24H: 2013/04/17 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2013/04/17 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2013/04/18 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2013/04/18 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

THE STRONG WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (25KT ACCORDING TO

CIMSS DATA) HAS COMPLETELY BLOWN OUT THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE CENTER COMPLETELY EXPOSED APPEARS CLEARLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY.

SYSTEM KEEPS ON RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE

SOUTH-WESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12H UNDERGOING THE

STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LEVELS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL BELT.

ON THIS RAPID WESTWARDS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

MORE RAPIDLY WITH VERY UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (COOLER

SST AND STRONG VWS).

THE RESIDUAL LOW MAY PASS SOUTH OF MAURITIUS ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTH

OF LA REUNION ISLAND ON THURSDAY.

SYSTEM SHOULD BEYOND TAKE A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK AND DISSIPATE.=

NNNN

(Image: metservice.intnet.mu) Synoptic Chart

 

 

 

MARITIME

 

 

 

ZCZC 961

WTIO20 FMEE 160622 CCA

***************CORRECTIVE**************

SECURITE

NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/04/2013 AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 042/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/04/2013 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-IMELDA) 999 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 62.9 E

(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND

SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE

SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, 25 KT, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WI

THIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FOR

CE WINDS 35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT FROM 150 TO 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN

QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2013/04/16 AT 18 UTC:

21.4 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

24H, VALID 2013/04/17 AT 06 UTC:

22.0 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.

NNNN

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

WTXS31 PGTW 160900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNING NR 021//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNING NR 021

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

160600Z — NEAR 21.0S 62.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 135 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 62.9E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z — 21.7S 63.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:

160900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 62.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (IMELDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM

EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A

FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS, BUT WITH

NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT 160431Z ASCAT

PASS REVEALS CENTRAL WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT

INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM PLAINE CORAIL, MAURITIUS INDICATE WIND

SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTING

THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES

INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), CURRENTLY AT HIGH LEVELS

(GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS), HAS BEEN DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. IN

ASSOCIATION WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), THE VWS

HAS LED TC 21S TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE VWS AND SST VALUES WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE

UNTIL THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY DISSIPATES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON

THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM

WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 21 FEET.//

NNNN

 

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Imelda

 

 

 

(wunderground.com)
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-

 

06 GMT 04/06/13 10.9S 72.6E 40 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/06/13 10.7S 71.5E 40 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/07/13 10.6S 70.5E 40 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/07/13 11.2S 68.2E 45 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/08/13 10.9S 65.2E 45 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/08/13 11S 63.4E 50 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/09/13 11.6S 61.2E 60 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/09/13 11.6S 59.5E 70 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/10/13 12S 58.4E 80 Category 1

18 GMT 04/10/13 12.3S 57.8E 100 Category 2

06 GMT 04/11/13 12.9S 57.9E 85 Category 1

18 GMT 04/11/13 13.3S 58.6E 65 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/12/13 14.1S 58.9E 50 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/12/13 15.3S 59.4E 40 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/13/13 16.1S 59.4E 40 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/13/13 16.7S 58.7E 60 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/14/13 16.7S 58.7E 60 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/14/13 17.2S 59.4E 70 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 04/14/13 18.6S 61.0E 85 Category 1

06 GMT 04/15/13 19.6S 61.8E 75 Category 1

18 GMT 04/15/13 20.4S 62.2E 65 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 04/16/13 21S 62.9E 40 Tropical Storm

 

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone #RUSTY: 262100Z nr 19.4S 119.1E stationary.Wind 95 Knots INTENSIFYING (JTWC) – 260213 2200Z

GO TO:

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone #RUSTY: 270900Z near 20.0S 119.5E moving SSE at 4 knots. Wind 80 knots/92.2 mph (JTWC) 2702130915Z

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone #RUSTY: 262000WST nr 19.3S 119.1E near stationary. Windgust 195kmh INTENSIFYING (WA TCWC) WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND – 260213 1430Z

GO HERE: Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone #RUSTY: 262100Z nr 19.4S 119.1E stationary.Wind 95 Knots INTENSIFYING (JTWC) – 2602132200Z

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone RUSTY – 250213 2115z

GO HERE>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone #RUSTY: 260900Z nr 19.5S 119.2E moving SSW at 3 kts (JTWC) WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND 2602131315Z

Tropical Cyclone 09S/TD 6 (EX- #EMANG) 150900Z nr 13.6S 78.5E, moving SSW at 04 knots (JTWC) 140113 2305z

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09S_150530sams.jpg

(Image: usno.navy.mil)
Multispectral Satellite Imagery

 

ZCZC 817
WTIO30 FMEE 150654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-EMANG)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 78.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/15 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2013/01/16 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/01/16 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2013/01/17 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/01/17 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/01/18 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/01/19 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=2.0
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A STILL WEAKENING SYSTEM. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING, OVERALL VORT
ICITY HAS WEAKENED AND THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO THE CENTER) SHOW NO BANDING (
CF. LATEST METOP VIS IMAGERY). CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF INTENSITY IS THE WEAKEST ESTIMATION WITH SAB
AND PGTW STILL HOLDING THE CI AT 2.5.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS RELAXING, THE SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO ORGANISE.
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STOP EQUATORW
ARDS BUT COULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTH SIDE. THERE IS STILL A WINDOW FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION
WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME … HOWEVER STRONG UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO CURRENT POORLY INITIAL STATE A
ND AS AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN THIS SYSTEM.
ON AND AFTER FRIDAY, WESTERLY VWS MAY STRENGTHEN AGAIN, AND SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN.
EX-EMANG IS QUASI-SAT ALTHOUGH A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARDS DRIFT IS NOTED. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOU
RS, IT SHOULD RECURVE WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD BY ACCELERATING, IN CONNECTION WITH THE REBUILDING OF TH
E LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONIC BELT.
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. FURTHER INFORMATIONS CAN BE FOUND IN OUR DAI
LY BULLETIN FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN AWIO20 (ISSUED BEFORE 1
2Z).
NNNN

ZCZC 817
WTIO30 FMEE 150654
FFRS / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA RUNION
CYCLONE TROPICAL PRVISIONS AVERTISSEMENT (SUD-OUEST DE L’OCAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMRO D’AVERTISSEMENT : 12/6/20122013
1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 6 (EX-EMANG)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/15 À 0600 UTC :
30 NM RAYON DE POINT 13.5 S / 78,9 E
(TREIZE VIRGULE CINQ DEGRS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX HUIT VIRGULE NEUF DEGRS EST)
MOUVEMENT : QUASI
3.A DVORAK ANALYSE : 1,5/2,0/W 0,5/24 H
4.A LA PRESSION CENTRALE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX VITESSE MOYENNE DU VENT (10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DE VENTS MAXIMUM (RMW): NANT
6.A EXTENSION DE VENT PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
7.A PREMIER ISOBARE FERME (PRESSION / MOYENNE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE CIRCULATION CYCLONE : PEU PROFOND
PRVISIONS 1.B :
12 H: 2013/01/15 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 78,6 E, VENT MAX = 025 KT, PERTURBATION TROPICALE
H: 2013 24/01/16 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 78,0 E, VENT MAX = 030 KT, DE LA DPRESSION TROPICALE
36 H: 2013/01/16 18 UTC: 14,8 S / 76,7 E, VENT MAX = 030 KT, DE LA DPRESSION TROPICALE
48 H: 2013/01/17 06 UTC: 14,9 S / 74,5 E, VENT MAX = 035 KT, TEMPÊTE MODRE
60 H: 2013/01/17 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 72,4 E, VENT MAX = 035 KT, TEMPÊTE MODRE
72 H: 2013/01/18 06 UTC: 15,1 S / 70,5 E, VENT MAX = 030 KT, DE LA DPRESSION TROPICALE
2.B PERSPECTIVES À PLUS LONG TERME :
96 H: 2013/01/19 06 UTC: 15,2 S / 67,6 E, VENT MAX = 025 KT, PERTURBATION TROPICALE
2.C INFORMATIONS SUPPLMENTAIRES :
T = 1.5 CI = 2.0
PREMIÈRE IMAGERIE VISIBLE REPRSENTENT UN SYSTÈME ENCORE AFFAIBLISSEMENT. PAR RAPPORT À HIER MATIN, GLOBAL VORT
ICITY EST AFFAIBLIE ET L’ACTIVIT ORAGEUSE (BIEN QUE PLUS PRÈS DU CENTRE) NE MONTRER AUCUN (BANDES)
VOIR LES DERNIÈRES IMAGES DE VIS DE METOP). VALUATION ACTUELLE D’INTENSIT EST LA PLUS FAIBLE ESTIMATION AVEC SAB
ET PGTW, EN TENANT TOUJOURS LE CI À 2,5.
BIEN QUE LE NIVEAU HAUT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DU VENT (VWS) EST RELAXANT, LE SYSTÈME SE DMÈNE POUR ORGANISER.
LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT RESTER FAIBLE PENDANT LES 2 PROCHAINS JOURS. CONVERGENCE DE NIVEAU BAS S’ARRÊTERA EQUATORW
ARDS MAIS POURRAIT RENFORCER LE CT SUD. IL Y A TOUJOURS UNE FENÊTRE POUR L’INTENSIFICATION MODESTE
DANS CE LAPS DE TEMPS… TOUTEFOIS LA FORTE INCERTITUDE EXISTE EN RAISON DE COURANT MAL TAT INITIAL A
MODÈLES DISPONIBLES ND AS APPROFONDIR PAS BEAUCOUP CE SYSTÈME.
MARCHE APRÈS VENDREDI, VW OUEST PEUT ENCORE UNE FOIS, ET RENFORCER SYSTÈME DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR.
EX-EMANG EST QUASI-SAT, MÊME SI UNE TRÈS LENTE DRIVE VERS LE SUD EST NOTE. DANS LE PROCHAIN 24 À 36 HOU
RS, IL DOIT “RECOURBS” OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN ACCLRANT, DANS LE CADRE DE LA RECONSTRUCTION DE TH
E FAIBLE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHÈRE CEINTURE ANTICYCLONIQUE SUBTROPICALE.
DERNIÈRE MISE EN GARDE SUR CE SYSTÈME À MOINS QUE REINTENSIFICATION. PLUS AMPLES INFORMATIONS PEUVENT ÊTRE TROUVES DANS NOTRE DAI
BULLETIN LY POUR CLIMAT TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVE DANS LE SUD-OUEST DE L’OCAN INDIEN AWIO20 (DLIVR AVANT LE 1
2Z).
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
150600Z — NEAR 13.5S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 78.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 13.9S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 14.3S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 14.6S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 14.9S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 15.0S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 15.5S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 16.2S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 78.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY ELONGATED IN THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE MSI SHOWS THAT NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A SMALL REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES REMAINING STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED NEAR THE AXIS OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS BEEN
WEAKENING THE CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) AS THE LLCC IS NEAR THE STR AXIS. THE TRACK HAS SLOWED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE TROUGH HAS CREATED A WEAKER STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, BUT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK IN, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD. THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND BASED ON THIS
AGREEMENT THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

WTXS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09 S (EMANG) AVERTISSEMENT N 006 / /
RMKS /
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09 S (EMANG) AVERTISSEMENT NR 006
01 ACTIVE SOUTHIO IN DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
VENTS SOUTENUS MAXIMUM BASS SUR LA MOYENNE D’UNE MINUTE
VENT RAYONS VALIDES SUR EAU LIBRE SEULEMENT
POSITION DE MISE EN GARDE :
150600Z—PRÈS DE 13.5S 78.6E
MOUVEMENT AU-DELÀ DE SIX HEURES – 205 DEGRS À 04 KTS
POSITION PRCISE À 060 NM
POSTE BAS SUR CENTER SITU PAR SATELLITE
RPARTITION ACTUELLE DE VENT :
DES VENTS SOUTENUS MAX – 035 KT, RAFALES 045 KT
VENT RAYONS VALIDES SUR EAU LIBRE SEULEMENT
RPTITION POSIT : 13.5S 78.6E
PRVISIONS :
12 HRS, VALABLE DANS L’TABLISSEMENT :
151800Z—13.9S 78.0E
DES VENTS SOUTENUS MAX – 035 KT, RAFALES 045 KT
VENT RAYONS VALIDES SUR EAU LIBRE SEULEMENT
VECTEUR à 24HR POSIT : 245 DEG / 05 KTS
24 HRS, VALABLE DANS L’TABLISSEMENT :
160600Z—14 77.1E
DES VENTS SOUTENUS MAX – 040 KT, RAFALES 050 KT
VENT RAYONS VALIDES SUR EAU LIBRE SEULEMENT
RAYON DE VENTS DE KT 034 – 040 QUADRANT NORD-EST DE NM
045 QUADRANT SUD-EST DE NM
045 QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE NM
040 QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DE NM
VECTEUR DE 36 HR POSIT : 260 DEG / 07 KTS
36 HRS, VALABLE DANS L’TABLISSEMENT :
161800Z—14.6S 75.6E
DES VENTS SOUTENUS MAX – 045 KT, RAFALES 055 KT
VENT RAYONS VALIDES SUR EAU LIBRE SEULEMENT
RAYON DE VENTS DE KT 034 – 045 QUADRANT NORD-EST DE NM
050 NM AU SUD-EST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DE NM
VECTEUR DE 48 HR POSIT : 260 DEG / 09 KTS
TENDUE D’OUTLOOK :
48 HRS, VALABLE DANS L’TABLISSEMENT :
170600Z—14.9S 73.8E
DES VENTS SOUTENUS MAX – 050 KT, RAFALES 065 KT
VENT RAYONS VALIDES SUR EAU LIBRE SEULEMENT
RAYON DES VENTS DE KT 034 – 050 QUADRANT NORD-EST DE NM
055 QUADRANT SUD-EST DE NM
055 QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE NM
050 NM DU NORD-OUEST QUADRANT
VECTEUR À 72 H POSIT : 265 DEG / 07 KTS
72 HRS, VALABLE DANS L’TABLISSEMENT :
180600Z—15.0S 71.1E
DES VENTS SOUTENUS MAX – 055 KT, RAFALES 070 KT
VENT RAYONS VALIDES SUR EAU LIBRE SEULEMENT
RAYON DE 050 KT VENTS – 025 QUADRANT NORD-EST DE NM
025 QUADRANT SUD-EST DE NM
025 QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE NM
025 QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DE NM
RAYON DE VENTS DE KT 034 – 055 QUADRANT NORD-EST DE NM
060 NM AU SUD-EST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DE NM
VECTEUR À 96 H POSIT : 260 DEG / 06 KTS
PERSPECTIVES À LONG TERME :
96 H, VALABLE DANS L’TABLISSEMENT :
190600Z—15.5S 68.7E
DES VENTS SOUTENUS MAX – 060 KT, RAFALES 075 KT
VENT RAYONS VALIDES SUR EAU LIBRE SEULEMENT
VECTOR HR 120 POSIT : 250 DEG / 05 KTS
120 HRS, VALABLE DANS L’TABLISSEMENT :
200600Z—16.2S 66.7E
DES VENTS SOUTENUS MAX – 065 KT, RAFALES 080 KT
VENT RAYONS VALIDES SUR EAU LIBRE SEULEMENT
REMARQUES :
POSITION DE 150900Z PRÈS DE 13.6S 78.5E.
09 S CYCLONE TROPICAL (TC) (EMANG), SITU À ENVIRON 525 NM
AU SUD-EST DE DIEGO GARCIA, A SUIVI VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST À 04
NOEUDS AU COURS DES SIX DERNIÈRES HEURES. ANIMATION SATELLITE MULTISPECTRALE
IMAGERIE (MSI) MONTRE QUE LE FAIBLE NIVEAU DE CIRCULATION CENTRE (CONSEIL COMMUNAUTAIRE) A
DEVENIR UN PEU ALLONG DANS LE NORD-EST À SUD-OUEST AXE.
EN OUTRE, LE MSI MONTRE QUE PRESQUE TOUS LES CONVECTION PROFONDE
DISSIPE AVEC SEULEMENT UNE PETITE RGION DU TORCHAGE PAR CONVECTION DANS LA
MOITI NORD DU SYSTÈME. L’INTENSIT DU COURANT A T
MAINTENUE À 35 NOEUDS, BASEES SUR LE DVORAK ESTIME DE PGTW ET
KNES STABLE AU COURS DES 12 DERNIÈRES HEURES. ANALYSE À L’CHELLE SUPRIEURE
INDIQUE 09 S TC EST SITU PRÈS DE L’AXE D’UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SUBTROPICAL
CRÊTE (STR) ET AU NORD-EST D’UNE PROFONDE AUX LATITUDES MOYENNES EN DVELOPPEMENT
AUGE EN COUCHES. LA SUBSIDENCE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST A T
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA CONVECTION. CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DU VENT EST FAIBLE (05 À 10
NOEUDS) QUE LE CONSEIL COMMUNAUTAIRE EST PRÈS DE L’AXE DE STR. LA PISTE S’EST RALENTIE AU COURS
LES 12 DERNIÈRES HEURES EN TANT QUE LA FOSSE A CR UNE DIRECTION PLUS FAIBLES
ENVIRONNEMENT, MAIS COMME LE CREUX SE DPLACE VERS L’EST, LE STR EST PRVU
POUR CONSTRUIRE DANS, CE QUI PERMET AU SYSTÈME DE SUIVI DE CONTINUER
VERS L’OUEST. LE SUPPORT DE NIVEAU SUPRIEUR AMLIORE LENTEMENT PERMETTRA À LA
SYSTÈME D’INTENSIFIER PAR TAU 120. DIRECTIVES DE MODÈLE NUMRIQUE EST EN
SALON ACCORD TOUT AU LONG DE LA PRIODE DE PRVISION ET SUR CETTE BASE
ACCORD IL RESTE GRANDE CONFIANCE DANS LA VOIE DES PRVISIONS.
HAUTEUR MAXIMALE DES VAGUES À 150600Z EST DE 15 PIEDS. PROCHAINES MISES EN GARDE
À 152100Z ET 160900Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 012330Z nr 8.9S 84.5E, moving WNW at 08 knots (JTWC) 020113 1705z

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9713.gif

(Image: JTWC)
TCFA track
(Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS21 PGTW 012330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9S 85.7E TO 11.6S 79.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012030Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 84.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S
84.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE UNDER THE PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS
LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS CREATING
MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 20 KNOTS).
STRONGER LEVELS OF VWS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC ARE HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING LLCC
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE SSTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022330Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone Claudia in South Indian Ocean: At 130300Z nr 28.3S 75.9E, moving SSE at 14 knots – 131212 1155z

(Image: wunderground.com) Tropical Cyclone Claudia Tracking Map (Click image for source)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03S_101130sams.jpg

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTXS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
130000Z — NEAR 27.6S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S 75.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 30.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3S 75.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S
(CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1215 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LACK OF
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND INCREASING INTERACTON WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

 

Indian Ocean: At least 7 (inc 4 children) killed, 6 missing, 11 rescued after boat capsizes off Mayotte – Published 14 July 2012 1522 GMT/UTC

At least seven people died and six people were missing after a ship carrying illegal immigrants capsized off the Indian Ocean French overseas territory of Mayotte, officials said yesterday (Friday).

(Image: wikipedia.org)
Mayotte (French)
(Click image for source)

The boat was travelling from Anjouan in the Comoros with 24 people on board when it capsized during the night.

Those who died were four children and three women.

Another 11 people have been rescued, authorities said.

The accident is the second in the area in less than two months, after another boat flipped over on reefs around Mayotte in May, leaving five people dead, 15 missing and 19 survivors.

Mayotte is part of the Indian Ocean archipelago of the Comoros. While the three other islands chose independence from France in 1975, it opted to remain under French rule.

Many Comorans hoping to find work or medical care board rickety fishing boats to attempt the risky voyage, often foundering on coral reefs.

Most of them try to travel over from the poorest Comoran island, Anjouan, some 100 kilometres (60 miles) from Mayotte. Some two-fifths of Mayotte’s 200,000 inhabitants are thought to be illegal immigrants.

Friday, 13 July, 2012 at 16:49 (04:49 PM) UTC RSOE

Boat carrying 150 sinks in Indian Ocean, at least 1 dead, 130 rescued – Updated 27 June 2012 1235 GMT/UTC

A ship carrying about 150 people has sunk in the waters between Australia and Indonesia, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said today (Wednesday).

(Image: shire.gov.cx)
Christmas Island

Two merchant vessels are trying to rescue people where the ship went down, about 107 nautical miles north of Australia’s Christmas Island, the authority said.- CNN Wire

A boat carrying around 150 suspected asylum seekers has capsized off northwest Australia today, just a week after 90 people drowned on a similar journey.

Merchant ships are currently collecting survivors from the capsizing, which happened between Indonesia and Australia’s

Dozens of asylum seekers are feared drowned after a second boatload of capsized in less than a week in Australian waters today.

The frail wooden boat was estimated to have been carrying about 150 people and there were fears that many had drowned as rescuers were making their way to the scene of the tragedy.

Mr Mal Larsen, from the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said rescue ships were beginning to arrive at the scene and some people were being pulled from the water.

‘They are doing their best to pull people out,’ he said. ‘It’s too early to say how many have been saved.’

Daily Mail

Update: At least one person died and Customs says 130 people have been rescued from the distressed boat.

Rescue authorities had been told by those aboard the vessel that its generator had stopped working and that the boat sank . –  news.com.au

A crowded boat carrying asylum seekers to Australia capsized Wednesday and 125 survivors and one body were recovered from the Indian Ocean, less than a week after more than 90 people drowned on a similar journey. An air and sea search was ongoing for as many as 20 people who could still be missing, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said. Three merchant ships that responded to the capsizing rescued 125 people, and the authority said one body was recovered. The area is midway between Christmas Island and the main Indonesian island of Java. The authority said up to 150 men, women and children may have been on the wooden Indonesian fishing boat. Prime Minister Julian Gillard told Parliament that two Australian warships and an air force aircraft that can drop life rafts on the sea joined the search by late Wednesday. The area is 200 kilometers (120 miles) north of Australia’s Christmas Island and 185 kilometers (115 kilometers) south of Java. The boat capsized in Indonesia’s search and rescue zone but Australian authorities had raised the alarm, Australian Maritime Safety Authority spokeswoman Jo Meehan said.

The first merchant ship reached the scene more than four hours later, she said. Last Thursday, 110 people were rescued when a boat carrying more than 200 mostly Afghan asylum seekers capsized only 24 kilometers (15 miles) from the latest tragedy. Only 17 bodies were recovered. The survivors’ refugee applications were being assessed at Christmas Island, where Australia runs an immigration detention center. Australia is a common destination for boats carrying asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Iraq, Sri Lanka and other poor or war-torn countries. Last week’s disaster rekindled debate in Parliament on how Australia should deter asylum seekers from risking the hazardous sea journey. The government wants to send new boat arrivals to Malaysia in exchange for accepting U.N.-recognized refugees living there. The opposition won’t support the legislation because Malaysia has not signed the Refugee Convention.

Wednesday, 27 June, 2012 at 11:09 (11:09 AM) UTC RSOE

2 adults and 3 children (including a baby) die, at least 15 missing, after fishing boat sinks in Indian Ocean

Two adults and three children died while 15 people were missing after a boat sank off the French overseas department of Mayotte, the government said Sunday.

The fishing boat was carrying 43 people from the nearby independent nation of the Comoros, the overseas ministry said in a statement. The provisional toll is 19 people survived, 15 were missing and five bodies were found, including those of three children, it said.

One of the children was a baby.

The statement said the accident occurred late Saturday afternoon, and that some survivors were rescued by a hotel dive club on the Indian Ocean island, whose people are some 10 times wealthier than Comoran islanders.

The ministry has activated a maritime safety plan, and the necessary aerial and nautical means are in place and will remain for as long as needed, the statement said.

A helicopter and a Zodiac were searching for the other survivors, it said.The archipelago of the Comoros voted to become independent from France in 1975, while the Mayotte islanders opted to remain under French rule.

Monday, 21 May, 2012 at 06:05 (06:05 AM) UTC RSOE

AP: Overseas Minister Victorin Lurel says an air and sea search operation will continue as long as necessary to find the missing.

Its not immediately clear what caused the sinking, but the small kwassa-kwassa boats are thought ill-equipped for long sea trips.

More here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/children-among-5-dead-as-fishing-boat-sinks-in-french-island-of-mayotte/2012/05/20/gIQAzyHHdU_story.html

Malaria oubreak in Madagascar kills 7, hospitalises 60

A particularly severe outbreak of malaria in Madagascar has killed seven people since the beginning of the month and has left 60 others in need of hospitalisation, the country’s health minister said on Thursday.

Madagascar has seen an increase in the number of malaria cases in the first months of 2012 when compared with the previous year, government officials say.

Local doctors say the increase is likely a result of changing climate conditions, which have made the region more hospitable to the insects which carry the disease.

Moreover, the country suffered a coup in 2009 and Madagascar has been in a political stalemate ever since, despite regional efforts to reach an agreement between the military-backed rulers and the old regime now in exile

The stalemate has caused foreign donors to back away from the country, which is also experiencing an economic decline as a result of the political situation.

At the same time, its government is becoming less capable of delivering basic health services.The outbreak has hit the south of the world’s fourth largest island, located off southern Africa in the Indian Ocean.

Health Minister Johanita Ndahimananjara said there were enough supplies of medicine to care for the ill, but stressed that early detection and treatment were crucial to preventing the disease from causing the patient to die.

Malaria, a mosquito-borne parasitic disease that can be fatal, ravages many developing countries.Aid groups often hand out mosquito nets to help prevent people from getting bitten and contracting the disease. Owing to the poverty in Madagascar, many people depend on the hand-outs as they cannot afford to buy nets on their own.

Thursday, 10 May, 2012 at 14:09 (02:09 PM) UTC RSOE

PTWC lifted tsunami watch for Indian Ocean for both 8.6mag earthquake & 8.2mag aftershock at 1043Z

000
WEIO21 PHEB 111236
TSUIOX

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 006
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1236Z 11 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... THE TSUNAMI WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR BOTH MAIN SHOCK
AT 0839Z AND AFTERSHOCK AT 1043Z ...

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES.  ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

 ORIGIN TIME -  0839Z 11 APR 2012
 COORDINATES -   2.3 NORTH   93.1 EAST
 LOCATION    -  OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
 MAGNITUDE   -  8.7

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 KO TAPHAO NOI TH      7.8N  98.4E  1143Z   0.05M /  0.2FT  06MIN
 ENGGANO ID            5.3S 102.3E  1104Z   0.12M /  0.4FT  04MIN
 TRINCONMALEE LK       8.6N  81.2E  1129Z   0.06M /  0.2FT  16MIN
 TELUKDALAM ID         0.6N  97.8E  1044Z   0.22M /  0.7FT  14MIN
 COCOS ISLAND AU      12.1S  96.9E  1102Z   0.08M /  0.3FT  18MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  1010Z   0.36M /  1.2FT  06MIN
 MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  1007Z   1.06M /  3.5FT  12MIN
 DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

 A SIGNIFICANT TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED BY THIS EARTHQUAKE.
 HOWEVER...SEA LEVEL READINGS NOW INDICATE THAT THE THREAT HAS
 DIMINISHED OR IS OVER FOR MOST AREAS.  THEREFORE THE TSUNAMI
 WATCH ISSUED BY THIS CENTER IS NOW CANCELLED.

 FOR ANY AFFECTED AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES HAVE OCCURRED FOR AT
 LEAST TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME OR DAMAGING WAVES
 HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES
 CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL
 STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS.
 AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE
 ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL
 AUTHORITIES.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
FOR THIS EVENT. IN THE CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION...THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.