South Korea/ North Korea/ China: Tropical Storm DANAS 20/1200Z near 35.5N 126.3E, moving NNE 09kt 994 hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 20 Jul 2019 1300Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm DANAS 06W TS1905
(Upgraded by RSMC Tokyo at 09:45 20 Jul UTC)
Landfall occurring

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 14 FEET (JTWC)

See comments at bottom of page for updates and other informastion

JMA logo

1905-00-1

 

TS 1905 (Danas)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 20 July 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 20 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E125°55′ (125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 20 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N37°25′ (37.4°)
E127°50′ (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 21 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°50′ (39.8°)
E129°35′ (129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 22 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N43°20′ (43.3°)
E134°00′ (134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)

KMA SOUTH KOREA

No.5 DANAS

Issued at(KST) : 2019.07.20. 12:30

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2019.07.20. 03:00 Analysis 34.5 125.8 992 16 58 NNE 15

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Depression 06W (Danas) Warning #17
Issued at 20/0900Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 017
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
200600Z — NEAR 34.7N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 34.7N 125.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 36.6N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 39.0N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 35.2N 126.1E.
20JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Jul, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression DANAS is currently located near 34.7 N 125.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). DANAS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

D20 DocR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 994 HPA
AT 35.5N 126.3E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 38.1N 128.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 40.4N 130.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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US/Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm BARRY 13/1200Z 29.3N 91.9W, moving NW ~3.7kt/5mph 991mb, expected to be a #hurricane when the center reaches the LA coast during the next several hours(NHC) – Updated 13 Jul 1430Z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM BARRY AL02

 

………BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…..Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast during the next several hours..NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

SEE UPDATES IN COMMENTS AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

Storm Surge
Watch/Warning (link)

115242_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

 

 

NWS radar Image from New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

000
WTNT32 KNHC 131152
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

…BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Barry is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Barry will make landfall along the
south-central Louisiana coast during the next several hours.
After landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward
through the Mississippi Valley through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 70 mph
(115 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast during the next several hours.
Steady weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 71 mph and a
wind gust of 85 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 991 mb (29.26 inches). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Barry.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS…3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas…1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley beginning as early as later this morning. Across
the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western
portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions currently
spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area later this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Local Products

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA Threats and Impacts 457 AM CDT Sat Jul 13
Lake Charles, LA Threats and Impacts 503 AM CDT Sat Jul 13


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 13 Jul, 2019 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BARRY is currently located near 29.1 N 91.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). BARRY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DocR B13

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Offshore Waters Forecast (Gulf of Mexico)

000
FZNT24 KNHC 130845
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-132045-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Barry near 29.1N 91.8W 993 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving WNW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt.
Barry is forecast to reach hurricane strength as it nears the
coast just prior to landfall. Barry will move inland to 29.8N
92.1W this afternoon, to 30.9N 92.6W Sun morning, weaken to a
tropical depression near 32.3N 92.9W Sun afternoon, to 33.8N 93.0W
Mon morning, and 35.0N 93.0W Tue morning. Barry will become a
remnant low as it moves to 36.5N 92.5W early Wed, and dissipate by
Thu. Winds and seas will diminish and subside across the basin Sun
into early next week as high pres ridging builds westward across
the basin.

$$

GMZ011-132045-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ013-132045-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. S to SW winds 30 to 40 kt.
Seas 9 to 14 ft. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S winds 25 to 30
kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT…S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ015-132045-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and SE to S 20 to 25 kt
elsewhere. Seas 7 to 11 ft in W swell. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in W swell.
.SUN…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-132045-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ019-132045-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE to S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W to NW
swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ021-132045-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ023-132045-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ025-132045-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
445 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.TODAY…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.TUE NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

Forecaster Lewitsky

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)

000
FZNT02 KNHC 130849
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 15.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM BARRY NEAR 29.1N 91.8W 993 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 13
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…130 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT…
180 NM SE QUADRANT…60 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N89W TO 30N93W TO 27N89W
TO 31N88W TO 27N84W TO 22N89W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BARRY 29.4N 91.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM
NE QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…130 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70
NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE
QUADRANT…270 NM SE QUADRANT…90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 0 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N90W TO 26N94W TO
30N93W TO 28N89W TO 29N84W TO 24N90W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BARRY INLAND NEAR 30.9N 92.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT…150 NM SE QUADRANT…105 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 27N90W TO 27N94W TO 29N94W TO 30N90W TO 29N86W
TO 27N90W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY INLAND NEAR 33.8N
93.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY NEAR 35.0N 93.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BARRY NEAR 36.5N
92.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC WITHIN 12N40W TO 12N41W TO 13N40W TO 12N40W NE TO E WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 13N46W TO 12N48W TO 13N48W TO 13N47W TO
13N46W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N54W TO 12N55W TO 14N60W TO 16N59W TO
16N56W TO 14N54W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 11N71W TO 11N75W TO 13N77W TO 14N75W TO 14N72W
TO 11N71W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N74W TO 12N78W TO 17N73W TO 18N72W TO
15N72W TO 11N74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N71W TO 11N75W TO 14N77W TO 17N73W TO
15N70W TO 11N71W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 16N86W TO 16N87W TO 16N88W TO 18N88W TO 18N86W
TO 16N86W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Philippines/ Taiwan/ China: Tropical Cyclone (TD) FOUR (Egay, 04W,TD08) 30/0600Z 16.2 °N, 127.2 °E, moving WNW ~16.1kt 1004hpa (PAGASA) – Published 30 Jun 2019 1335Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FOUR 04W

(Tropical Depression”Egay” in the Philippines, TD08 in Taiwan)

 “EGAY” HAS SLIGHTLY ACCELERATED WHILE MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON (PAGASA)

 

PAGASA logoPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Depression”Egay”
Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

Issued at 05:00 pm, 30 June 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11:00 pm today.)

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “EGAY” HAS SLIGHTLY ACCELERATED WHILE MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON.
  • The Southwest Monsoon will bring light to moderate with at times heavy monsoon rains over Metro Manila, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Cavite, Batangas, Mindoro Provinces, Romblon, and Northern Palawan tonight. Meanwhile, Visayas and the rest of Luzon will have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.
  • Tomorrow, monsoon rains may prevail over Metro Manila, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Antique, Aklan, and western Iloilo, while cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms is expected over the rest of Luzon and Western Visayas.
  • Residents in the aforementioned areas, especially those living in areas identified to be at high risk of flooding and landslides, are advised to take precautionary measure, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings to be issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.
  • Moderate to rough seas may prevail over the western seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Northern Luzon in the next 24 hours. Those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out to these areas.
track
Location of Eye/center

At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “EGAY” was estimated based on all available data at 545 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.2 °N, 127.2 °E )

Movement

Moving West Northwest at 30 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 65 kph

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 55 km East of Basco, Batanes(20.4°N, 122.5°E)
  • 48 Hour(Tuesday afternoon):450 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(23.3°N, 118.9°E)
Warning Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Batanes
  • Visayas
  • Mindanao
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of 30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind
  • Twigs and branches of small trees may be broken.
  • Some banana plants may be tilted or downed.
  • Some houses of very light materials (nipa and cogon) may be partially unroofed.
  • Unless this warning signal is upgraded during the entire existence of the tropical cyclone, only very light or no damage at all may be sustained by the exposed communities.
  • Rice crop, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures
  • When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
  • The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
  • The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
  • Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do
  • Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
  • Clean up drainage system.
  • Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

 

TAIWAN

CWB Taiwan

2019/06/30 06:00, TD08 , Center Location 16.00N 126.50E, Movement: NW 21KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 1002 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 15m/s, Gust 23m/s, Radius of 15m/s -99km.

2019063006_pta-12_0_eng

TD08
》Analysis
0600UTC 30 June 2019
Center Location 16.00N 126.50E
Movement  WNW  20km/hr
Minimum Pressure  1002 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 15 m/s
Gust 23 m/s
》Forecast
12 hours valid at:
1800UTC 30 June 2019
Center Position 17.60N 124.80E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NW 21 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  1002 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 15 m/s
Gust 23 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  –km
Radius of 70% probability circle 120km
24 hours valid at:
0600UTC 01 July 2019
Center Position 19.10N 122.70E
Vector to 24 HR Position
NW 23 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  1000 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 15 m/s
Gust 23 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  –km
Radius of 70% probability circle 150km


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jun, 2019 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FOUR is currently located near 15.9 N 129.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). FOUR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

Other

4 DocR2

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 Philippines: Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/tropical-cyclone-warning-for-shipping

WWJP25 RJTD 300600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 300600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 994 HPA
AT 39N 138E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 37N 144E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 140E 46N 150E
56N 163E 60N 163E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 170E 38N 170E 31N 160E 29N
139E 35N 140E 42N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 44N 130E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 44N 164E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 16N 127E NW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 18N 114E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 51N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N 108E TO 27N 110E 28N 115E 31N 121E 31N 125E
35N 135E 36N 138E 36N 141E 37N 144E 37N 154E.
REMARKS.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWHK82 VHHH 300600
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
NIL.
SYNOPSIS (300600UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS AFFECTING SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES,
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), AND SEAS NEAR HAINAN.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SWELL SW 3 M OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
SCATTERED SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS (TS)
OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES, THE SCS, AND SEAS NEAR
HAINAN.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, LUZON
STRAIT, GULF OF THAILAND AND STRAIT OF MALACCA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

WWCI50 BABJ 300600
2:1:31:11:01:00
BT
SECURITE=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUN.30 2019=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUN.30=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.01=
WARNNING=
NIL=
SUMMARY=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S GUSTS 15M/S SEAS
UP TO
2.0M OVER SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM ALSO OVER
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND
SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND MAKASSAR STRAIT
AND LAUT SULAWESI AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
CYCLONIC WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR
08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT TO
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Arabian Sea: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm VAYU 13/0600Z near 20.5°N 69.3°E, moving N 03kt 978hpa (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 13 Jun 2019 1505Z (GMT/UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm VAYU

 

VAYU is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

ftrack-1

 

 

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘VAYU’ over East-central Arabian:

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 18 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL ANDARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72HOURS ISSUED AT 0900UTC OF 13.06.2019 BASED ON 0600UTC OF 13.06.2019.THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘VAYU’(PRONOUNCED AS VAA’YU) OVER NORTHEAST & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 05 KMPH IN LAST SIX HOURSAND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTCOF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.5°N AND LONGITUDE 69.3°E OVER NORTHEAST & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 170 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIU(42914), 120 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT) AND 130 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PORBANDAR (42830)(GUJARAT).IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA COASTAFFECTING GIR SOMNATH, DIU, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA DISTRICTS OF GUJARAT STATE WITH WIND SPEED 90-100 KMPH GUSTING TO 110 KMPH DURING NEXT 12 HOUR

See full details  >>>>http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

Source: http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northindian/2019/io022019/


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 13 Jun, 2019 12:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm VAYU is currently located near 20.8 N 69.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 95 kts (109 mph). VAYU is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. VAYU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Porbandar (21.6 N, 69.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Veraval (21.0 N, 70.5 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Diu (20.7 N, 71.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Jamnagar (22.5 N, 70.1 E)
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Mandvi (22.9 N, 69.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Morbi (22.7 N, 70.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of US Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

National Disaster Management Authority, Govt of India

Twitter: @ndmaindia

Other information source

Twitter: @CycloneVayu

docR V13

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 130900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 13 JUNE 2019.

PART-I HURRICANE-FORCE WIND WARNING

PART-II

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VAYU (PRONOUNCED AS VAA’YU) OVER
NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 03 KTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE
20.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 69.3 DEG E OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 170 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIU
(42914), 120 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT) AND
130 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PORBANDAR (42830)(GUJARAT).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA COAST AFFECTING GIR
SOMNATH, DIU, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA DISTRICTS
OF GUJARAT STATE WITH WIND SPEED 49-54 KTS GUSTING TO 59 KTS DURING
NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO
90 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 HPA (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E : 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

At 1200 UTC, 13 June 2019, VAYU (IO02) was located in the Arabian Sea basin at 20.8°N and 69.0°E. The current intensity was 95 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 335 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb – NCAR

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northindian/2019/io022019/

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Rotuma/ Fiji/ South Pacific: Tropical Depression 12F (95P) 180600Z near 9.5S 175.7E, moving SSE ~06kt 1004hpa (RSMC Nadi) – Published 18 May 2019 1454Z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F (95P)

(Possible future TC Rita)

FIJI and ROTUMA BEWARE!

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE

IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE (RSMC Nadi 180845 UTC)

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH (JTWC 180600 UTC)

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 5 issued 0115 UTC Saturday 18 May 2019

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am May 18 tropical low 9.6S 174.9E 220
+6hr 6 am May 18 tropical low 9.8S 175.1E 250
+12hr 12 pm May 18 tropical low 9.9S 175.1E 280
+18hr 6 pm May 18 tropical low 10.3S 175.3E 305
+24hr 12 am May 19 tropical low 10.5S 175.5E 335
+36hr 12 pm May 19 tropical low 11.3S 175.8E 395
+48hr 12 am May 20 tropical low 11.7S 176.1E 455
+60hr 12 pm May 20 tropical low 12.6S 176.3E 540
+72hr 12 am May 21 tropical low 13.8S 176.6E 630

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 180845 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE 1004HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 175.7E
AT 180600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD12F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTH OF LLCC AND ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500 HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
TO ABOUT 50 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES FROM LLCC, YIELDS DT=2.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION
AND THAN WEAKENS IT. THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 12.1S 176.6E MOVING SSE AT 03KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 13.2S 177.4E MOVING SSE AT 03KT WITH
30KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 14.1S 178.1E MOVING SSE AT 03KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC 15.5S 178.6E SLOW MOVING SSE AT 03KT
WITH 30KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 181400 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 11:32pm on Saturday the 18th of May 2019
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ROTUMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 176.4E OR
ABOUT 300KM KILOMETERS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTUMA AT 9:00PM TONIGHT.
CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS
UPTO 55KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80KM/HR. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KM/HR AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE WEST OF ROTUMA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER ROTUMA.

FOR ROTUMA:
EXPECT STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SPEEDS UPTO 65 KM/HR WITH
GUSTS TO 90KM/HR. HIGH SEAS WITH DAMAGING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners
FOR ROTUMA WATERS
SOUTHWEST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS OF UPTO 4.0M EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ROTUMA ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2.30AM TOMORROW OR EARLIER.

JTWC Tropical Warnings

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZMAY2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171221MAY2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 174.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 175.7E, APPROXIMATELY 506
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170717Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING, WITH 95P SLOWLY TRACKING INTO A
REGION OF LOW-MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE GETTING STRONGER AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM
(28-30C) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK, WITH ALL PREDICTING SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION, BUT
VARY ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. THE GFS AND NAVGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMO
DISSENTING AND ONLY KEEPING A CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL PATCH OF
ELEVATED WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21
PGTW 171230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

Other

 

DocR poss Rita

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

South West Pacific Marine
UPDATED MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service May 180800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 180704 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 9.5S 175.7E AT 180600UTC. POSITION POOR. TD12F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 60 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 005. PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL May 190600 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 9.5S 175.7E AT 180600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 02S 160E 01S 170E 08S 179E SLOW MOVING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ. TROUGH T1 07S 160E 07S 170E TO TD12F 12S 179W 15S 170W 20S 160W 25S 150W. T1 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1 IN THE AREA WEST OF 162E AND EAST OF 174E. ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 EQT 175W 06S 174W 15S 168W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 03S 164W 08S 152W 09S 140W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND WEST OF 178W, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND WEST OF 140W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF EQ AND EAST OF 135W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 11:32pm on Saturday the 18th of May 2019
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ROTUMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 176.4E OR
ABOUT 300KM KILOMETERS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTUMA AT 9:00PM TONIGHT.
CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS
UPTO 55KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80KM/HR. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KM/HR AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE WEST OF ROTUMA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER ROTUMA.

FOR ROTUMA:
EXPECT STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SPEEDS UPTO 65 KM/HR WITH
GUSTS TO 90KM/HR. HIGH SEAS WITH DAMAGING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners
FOR ROTUMA WATERS
SOUTHWEST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS OF UPTO 4.0M EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ROTUMA ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2.30AM TOMORROW OR EARLIER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

 

Timor Leste (East Timor)/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone LILI 26S 10/1500Z position 9.3S 128.2E, moving NNW 03kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 May 2019 1530Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone LILI 26S

(Tropical Storm)

Timor Leste (East Timor), Indonesia beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET- JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Lili) Warning #06
Issued at 10/1500Z

sh2619-1

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 9.3S 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 9.1S 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 9.0S 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101248Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30
KNOTS) BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS
EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN UPPER-
AIR SOUNDINGS IN THE VICINITY, WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS
IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST
TIMOR NEAR TAU 24. TC 26S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z.//
NNNN

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA

TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND IMPACT MAP

Tropical Cyclone LILI

Issued Friday 10 May 2019 16:01 WIB


All times shown are in WIB.

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Area:
Extreme weather with the possibility of heavy rain (>=50mm/day) and/or strong winds (>=50 km/h) within 24 hours
Watch Area:
Extreme weather with the possibility of heavy rain (>=50mm/day) and/or strong winds (>=25 knots) within 48 hours
Past Location
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is BMG’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.

Tropical Cyclone Forecast:

Time (WIB) Maximum Wind Speed
(km/h)
Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
0hr 13:00 May 10 65 9.4S 128.6E
+6hr 19:00 May 10 65 9.5S 128.1E
+12hr 01:00 May 11 65 9.6S 127.5E
+18hr 07:00 May 11 55 9.6S 126.8E
+24hr 13:00 May 11 55 9.5S 126.0E
+36hr 01:00 May 12 45 9.3S 124.4E
+48hr 13:00 May 12 35 8.9S 122.6E
+60hr 01:00 May 13 30 8.5S 120.4E
+72hr 13:00 May 13 20 8.3S 118.1E

The next Impact Map will be issued by Friday 10 May 2019 20:00 WIB.

 

IDJ21030
METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS COUNCIL
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta

INFORMATION TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN

Issued by TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA
At: 15:57 WIB 10/05/2019

LILI Tropical Cyclone

Conditions on 10/05/2019 at 13:00 WIB:
Position: 9.4LS, 128.6BT (about 550 km east of Kupang)
Direction of movement: west, speed 5 knots (10 km / h) moves towards the territory of Indonesia
Speed
Maximum Wind: 35 knots (65 km / h)

24 hour prediction, 11/05/2019 at 13:00 WIB:
Position: 9.5LS, 126.0BT (about 265 km east of Kupang)
Motion Direction: west, speed of 6 knots (12 km / h) moves towards the territory of Indonesia
Speed
Maximum Wind: 30 knots (55 km / h)

48 hour prediction, dated 12/05/2019 at 13:00 WIB:
Position: 8.9LS, 122.6BT
Motion Direction: west, speed 7 knots (14 km / h) moves towards the territory of Indonesia
Speed
Maximum Wind: 17 knots (35 km / h)

72 hour prediction, 13/05/2019 at 13:00 WIB:
Position: 8.3LS, 118.1BT
Motion Direction: west, speed 9 knots (16 km / h) moves towards the Indonesian territory
Speed
Maximum Wind: 10 knots (20 km / h)

IMPACT ON WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
LILI Tropical Cyclone has an impact on the weather in Indonesia in the form of:
– Rain with moderate intensity is likely to occur in Maluku and Timor Leste.
– Winds with speeds above 25 knots or 48 km / h are likely to occur in southwest Maluku and Timor Leste.
– Waves with a height of 2.50 – 4.0 m are likely to occur in the Bali Strait – Lombok Strait – Alas Strait in the south, waters south of P. Sumba – P.Sawu, Sawu Sea, South Indian Ocean East Java to NTT, Arafuru Sea in the middle.
– Waves with a height of 4.0 – 6.0 m are likely to occur in the southern waters of Kupang – P.Rote, Timor Sea, South waters of Kep.Sermata – Letti, West Arafuru Sea.

IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 15:57 WIB 10/05/2019

Siklon Tropis LILI

Kondisi tanggal 10/05/2019 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 9.4LS, 128.6BT (sekitar 550 km sebelah timur Kupang)
Arah Gerak : barat , kecepatan 5 knots (10 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 35 knots (65 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 11/05/2019 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 9.5LS, 126.0BT (sekitar 265 km sebelah timur timur laut Kupang)
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 6 knots (12 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 12/05/2019 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 8.9LS, 122.6BT
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 7 knots (14 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 17 knots (35 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 13/05/2019 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 8.3LS, 118.1BT
Arah Gerak : barat, kecepatan 9 knots (16 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 10 knots (20 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon Tropis LILI memberikan dampak terhadap cuaca di Indonesia berupa:
– Hujan dengan intensitas sedang – lebat berpeluang terjadi di wilayah Maluku dan Timor Leste.
– Angin dengan kecepatan diatas 25 knot atau 48 km/jam berpeluang terjadi di Maluku bagian barat daya dan Timor Leste.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 2.50 – 4.0 m berpeluang terjadi di Selat Bali – Selat Lombok – Selat Alas bagian selatan, Perairan selatan P.Sumba – P.Sawu, Laut Sawu, Samudra Hindia Selatan Jawa Timur hingga NTT, Laut Arafuru bagian tengah.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 4.0 – 6.0 m berpeluang terjadi di Perairan selatan Kupang – P.Rote, Laut Timor, Perairan selatan Kep.Sermata – Letti, Laut Arafuru bagian barat.

 


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 10 May, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm LILI is currently located near 9.3 S 128.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). LILI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Indonesia
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Patti (8.2 S, 128.0 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

R2R1.jpg

R3R4

 

(Images: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

EGC:2:2:24:09S129E900:11:00
THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING FOR AREA 0 – 10 S, 90 – 141 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 01:45 UTC 10 May 2019

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone LILI 999 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 9.4 S 128.6 E moving west southwest at 4 knots.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 40 knots expected to decrease to 30 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 10 May: Within 70 nautical miles of 9.4 S 128.1 E
Central pressure 1004 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 11 May: Within 100 nautical miles of 9.1 S 127.2 E
Central pressure 1008 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 07:00 UTC 10 May 2019.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

India/ Bangladesh/ Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone (ESCS) FANI 01B 02/1500Z position near 18.0N 84.9E, moving N 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 May 2019 1748Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FANI 01B

(Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)

FANI is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA COAST BETWEEN GOPALPUR (43049)AND CHANDBALI(42973), SOUTH OF PURI (43053) DURING 0300-0600 UTC TOMORROW THE 3RD MAY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 170-180 KMPH GUSTING TO 200 KMPH (RSMC New Delhi)

  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 48 FEET- JTWC

See comments at bottom of page for updates

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Fani) Warning #23
Issued at 02/1500Z

io0119

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021200Z — NEAR 17.6N 84.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 84.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 19.2N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 21.0N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 22.8N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 24.7N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 26.5N 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM EAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST
SIX HOURS. THERE IS NOW A 16 NM WIDE ROUND, SYMMETRICAL EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION, WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. BASED ON
THE EYE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY AN EYE FEATURE IN A
021137Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135
KTS IS BETWEEN DVORAK VALUES OF T6.5-7.0 (127-140 KTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW, REFLECTING THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM. INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
TC 01B IS TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS. AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE STR AXIS, THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNTIL DISSIPATING BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK. BASED
ON THE TIGHT CLUSTER IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHITROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 43

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 43 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALIDFOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUEDAT 1500UTC OF 02.05.2019

BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 02.05.2019.

SUB: EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM „FANI‟(PRONOUNCED AS ‘FONI’) OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 15KMPH IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 02NDMAY, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.5°N AND LONGITUDE 84.8°E, ABOUT 275KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PURI (43053) (ODISHA), 160 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43150)(ANDHRA PRADESH) AND 570KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA(42901)(WEST BENGAL). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA COAST BETWEEN GOPALPUR (43049)AND CHANDBALI(42973), SOUTH OFPURI (43053) DURING0300-0600 UTC TOMORROW THE 3RDMAYWITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 170-180 KMPH GUSTING TO 200 KMPH.LANDFALL PROCESS IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TILL 0900UTCOFTOMORROW THE 3RDMAY. AFTER THE LANDFALL THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND EMERGE INTO GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF 90-100 KMPH GUSTING TO 115 KMPH BY EARLY MORNING OF 4TH. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND EMERGE INTO BANGLADESH ON 4THMAYEVENING AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED 60-70 KMPH GUSTING TO 80 KMPH. THE CYCLONE IS BEING TRACKED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS VISHAKHAPATNAM & MACHILIPATNAM. FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

Date/Time(UTC)Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)Category of cyclonicDisturbance

02.05.19/120017.5/84.8200-210gusting to 230Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

02.05.19/180018.3/85.0190-200 gusting to 220Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/000019.0/85.3180-190 gusting to 210Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/060019.9/85.7170-180 gusting to 200Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/120020.6/86.1150-160 gusting to 175VerySevere Cyclonic Storm

04.05.19/000022.1/87.3100-110 gusting to 125Severe Cyclonic Storm

04.05.19/120023.8/88.760-70 gusting to 80Cyclonic Storm

05.05.19/000025.5/90.140-50 gusting to 60Depression

05.05.19/120027.1/91.520-30 gusting to 40Well Marked Low

STORM SURGE GUIDANCE:

STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.5 METER HEIGHT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS VERY LIKELY TO INUNDATE LOW LYING AREAS OF GANJAM, KHURDA, PURI & JAGATSINGHPUR DISTRICTS OF ODISHA STATE AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

REMARKS:

AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1200 UTC OF 02ND MAY, 2019 THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRALBAY OF BENGAL IS C.I6.0.EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 KMSIS VISIBLEIN SATELLITE IMAGERY.DT IS 6.0.PT AND MET ALSO AGREE WITH THIS. THEASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSECONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 16.2°N TO 19.4°N TO THEWEST OF LONG.86.5°E. MINIMUM CLOUDTOP TEMPERATUREIS MINUS 93°C.

DWR MACHILIPATNAM INDICTAE CIRCULAR EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF 24KM.DWR VISAKHAPATNAM ALSO REPORTS CIRCULAR EYE, BUTWITH A DIAMETER OF 30KM.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105KNOTS GUSTING TO 115KNOTS.THESEA CONDITION IS PHENEOMENALAROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937HPA.

AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY,A BUOY (23093) LOCATED NEAR LAT. 16.3°N AND LONG 88.0°E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001.9HPAAND MEAN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION 190° AND WIND SPEED 17KNOTS.ANOTHER BUOY (23092) LOCATED NEAR LAT. 17.4°N AND LONG 89.1°E REPORTED MEANSEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1002.8HPAAND MEAN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION 210° AND WIND SPEED 18KNOTS.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 5AFTER 2 DAYSWITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1. HENCE, MJO ISFAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION &MAINTAINENCE OFINTENSITYOF THE SYSTEM OVER BAY OF BENGAL.THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 30-31 ̊COVER WESTCENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL.

IT DECREASE TO 29 ̊C OFF ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COASTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 100-120 KJ/CM2OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER REGIONS OF HIGH HEAT POTENTIAL FOR NEXT 24HOURS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL REDUCES TO LESS THAN 60 KJ/CM2OFF ODISHA COASTS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOURIMAGERIES INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SYSTEM CENTRE.HOWEVER, DRYAIR INCURSION IS SEEN TO BE TAKING PLACE IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM FROM SOUTH PENINSULAR INDIA.

THE LOWER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITYIS300X10-6SEC-1TO THE SOUTHWEST OFTHESYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCEIS ABOUT 40X10-5SEC-1 TOTHE NORTHEASTOF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPERLEVEL DIVERGENCEISABOUT 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE(05-10KNOTS) TO THE SOUTHOFTHE SYSTEMCENTRE ANDIT DECREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THESEFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OFEXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TILL 0600 UTC OF 03RDMAYAND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTERAS THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER WATERS AND INTERACT WITH LAND.

THE WESTERLY TROUGH IN THE DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND LYING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE ANDTHEANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL INTHE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELSARESTEERINGTHE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS.DUE TO COMBINED IMPACT OF THESE TWO STEERING FORCES THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS INCREASINGGRADUALLY.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, IMD GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS), AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE.

(NEETHA K GOPAL)(SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI)

Source: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN, SL NO: 32 (THIRTY TWO), DATE: 02.05.2019

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” (PRONUNCIATION: FONI) OVER WESTCENTRAL
BAY AND ADJOINING AREA MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY (LAT. 17.9°N, LONG. 84.9°E) AND WAS
CENTRED AT 09 PM TODAY (02 MAY 2019) ABOUT 905 KM SOUTHWEST OF CHATTOGRAM PORT, 875 KM
SOUTHWEST OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 725 KM SOUTHWEST OF MONGLA PORT AND 750 KM SOUTHWEST
OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION, CROSS ODISHA COAST OF INDIA BY AFTERNOON OF 03 MAY 2019 AND THEN MOVED
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVER ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTAL AREA, REACH KHULNA
AND ADJOINING SOUTHWESTERN PART OF BANGLDESH BY EVENING OF 03 MAY 2019. KHULNA AND
ADJOINING SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGION OF BANGLADESH MAY EXPERIENCE THE PERIPHERAL
EFFECT OF THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” BY THE MORNING OF 03 MAY 2019.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 74 KMS OF THE STORM CENTRE IS ABOUT 180 KPH
RISING TO 200 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER
SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN (R) SEVEN. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI,
BARISHAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE
ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER SEVEN (R) SEVEN.
MARITIME PORT OF CHATTOGRAM HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL
NUBMER SIX (R) SIX. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI,
CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL
NUMBER SIX (R) SIX.
MARITIME PORT OF COX’S BAZAR HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED LOCAL WARNING
SIGNAL NUBMER FOUR (R) FOUR.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “FANI” AND THE NEW MOON
PHASE, THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI,
LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISHAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI,
BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE
INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHATTOGRAM, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR,
BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISHAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA,
SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP
TO 90-110 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THE STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED
TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

Phone: 9135742, 9141437
FAX : 9119230, 58152019
Web Site: http://www.bmd.gov.bd
Email: info@bmd.gov.bd

Govt. of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
StormWarningCenter
Agargaon, Dhaka-1207

(Kh. Hafizur Rahman)
Meteorologist
For Director
02, 2130 BST

 

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

(2.5.2019)     According to the observations at (22:30)hrs M.S.T today, the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” over the Westcentral Bay has moved North-Northeastwards. It is centered at about (150)miles South-Southwest of Puri, (90)miles East- Southeast of Vishakhapatnam and (290)miles South-Southwest of Digha(India). It is forecast to move North-Northeastwards. Weather is cloudy over the West central Bay and partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea and elsewhere in the Bay of Bengal.

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm No.37, 2019

                                                                                                                                               Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm No.37, 2019

          2nd  May, 2019 23:00 MST Today

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

According to the observations at (22:30)hrs M.S.T today, the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” over the Westcentral Bay has moved North-Northeastwards. It is centered at about (150)miles South-Southwest of Puri, (90)miles East- Southeast of Vishakhapatnam and (290)miles South-Southwest of Digha(India). It is forecast to move North-Northeastwards.

It is not moving towards Myanmar coasts, the present stage of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm is coded yellow stage.

Position of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, center pressure and wind

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” is located at Latitude (17.5) degree North and Longitude (84.8) degree East, centre pressure of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm is (937)hPa and maximum wind speed near the center is (120)miles per hour at (22:30) hrs MST today.

During next (24)hrs forecast

It is forecast to cross ODISHA Coast between Gopalpur and Chandbali, near Puri during next (24)hours and weaken gradually into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI”. It is likely to continue to move North-Northeastwards.

General caution

Under the influence of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI”, rain or thundershowers will be fairly widespread in Upper Sagaing, Yangon and Thanintharyi Regions, Kachin, Chin, Kayin and Mon States, isolated to scattered in Naypyitaw, Lower Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwady Regions, Shan, Rakhine and Kayah States with isolated heavy falls in some areas within next (2.5.2019) to (4.5.2019) commencing today morning.

Occasional squalls with rough seas will be experienced off and along Myanmar Coasts. Surface wind speed in squalls may reach (40-45)m.p.h. Wave height will be about (10-13) feet off and along Myanmar Coasts.

Under the influence of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI”, people should be awared domastic flight, trawlers, vessels and ships off and along Myanmar Coasts.

Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (Myanmar)
Public weather call: 067-411252/01-667766


TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 2 May, 2019 12:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm FANI is currently located near 17.6 N 84.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 135 kts (155 mph). FANI is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FANI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Puri (19.9 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bangladesh
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Baleshwar (21.5 N, 87.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Kolkata (22.5 N, 88.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Kharagpur (22.4 N, 87.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Jamshedpur (22.8 N, 86.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Jessore (23.2 N, 89.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DocR F2

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 021315

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 02 MAY 2019.

PART:-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM FANI (PRONOUNCED AS FONI) OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED FURTHER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH
ASPEED OF ABOUT 9 KNOTS IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC
OF 02ND MAY, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.1
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.8 DEG E, ABOUT 320 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PURI
(43053) (ODISHA), 170 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43150)
(ANDHRA PRADESH) AND 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901) (WEST
BENGAL).
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
125 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENEOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 HPA (.)
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA
COAST BETWEEN GOPALPUR (43049) AND CHANDBALI (42973), AROUND PURI
(43053) DURING 0300-0600 UTC TOMORROW THE 3RD MAY WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 90-95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. LANDFALL
PROCESS IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TILL 0900 UTC OF TOMORROW THE 3RD
MAY.
F/C POSITION AND INTENSITY
12 HRS VALID 2019/05/02 AT 21 UTC 18.6 N / 85.3 E MAX WIND 100 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/05/03 AT 09 UTC 20.2 N/ 86.0 E (OVERLAND)
MAX WIND SPEED 95 KTS EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART:-II:

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO E OF 76 DEG E (.)
3)REST AREA: W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 8 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY1)S OF 8 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 7 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 7 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N:W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/S-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-10.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 95 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 5.0-8.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 80/85 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Skipper rescued off Salcombe ‘had done all the right things’ – Published 01 May 2019 1528Z )GMT/UTC)

A skipper who was rescued after his boat caught on fire has been praised by HM Coastguard for having all the right equipment and doing all the right things.

Salcombe Lifeboat

Salcombe Lifeboat (Image: Salcombe RNLI)

Joe Dudley ran into difficulty when his fishing vessel Peace N Plenty had a fire on board six miles off Salcombe just before 6.30pm on 30 April. He called HM Coastguard reporting the problem and said he had abandoned to a life raft with a handheld VHF radio and EPIRB (emergency position-indicating radio beacon).

Both RNLI lifeboats from Salcombe were tasked and the skipper brought back to shore. Navigational warnings were issued for the abandoned vessel but the fire has now burned out and the boat is being towed back to harbour at Brixham. It will be inspected by a Maritime & Coastguard Agency surveyor.

Joe Dudley has recently completed a sea survival course. He said: ‘It’s incredible when you realise the things that you don’t think you’ve absorbed have actually gone in and you do all the safety things you need to.

‘I’d say to anyone thinking about doing a sea survival course to do it and to listen seriously because it could save your life.’

Tago Mcleod, from HM Coastguard based at Falmouth said: ‘This was a man who did everything right from the moment he realised he had a problem. He had a fully registered EPIRB which he activated right away, he was wearing a lifejacket and made ready his lifeboat. The EPIRB helped us establish his position to within a few metres. At the same time he called a family member who then was able to liaise with us.

‘We are always on hand in an emergency to rescue people who have called us on their VHF radio or calling 999 and asking for the coastguard, but this was someone who had understood the need to take responsibility for his own safety and did everything right to make the job of finding him easier.’

Follow the official page of Salcombe RNLI lifeboat station on Twitter:

For UK GALE WARNINGS & Shipping Forecast and the UK INSHORE GALE or Strong Wind Warnings & forecast to 12 miles offshore  follow GOATY’S NEWS (UK) 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 on Twitter (regular automatic tweets 24/7)

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Comoros/ Mayotte/ Mozambique/ Tanzania: Tropical Cyclone KENNETH 240900Z position near 11.0S 45.2E, moving W 11kt (JTWC) – Published 24 Apr 2019 0910Z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH (14, 24S)

Australia (WA)/ Indonesia/ Timor Leste: Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTHREE 23S 05/1500Z near 11.9 125.9E, moving W at ~8.63kt (BoM) – Published 05 Apr 2019 1715Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTHREE 23S, 97S

Warning zone: Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, not including Derby..

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

AUSTRALIA

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 11:22 pm AWST Friday 5 April 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 10.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop off the north Kimberley coast early Saturday morning. Small risk of a period of gales along the northwest Kimberley coast.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, not including Derby..

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South, 125.9 degrees East , 280 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and 425 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay .
Movement: west at 16 kilometres per hour .

The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone early Saturday morning north of the Kimberley coast. The system will track towards the west southwest and is likely to intensify further over the weekend. While the most likely track keeps the system well off the WA coast, there remains a slight risk that the cyclone could approach the west Pilbara coast next week.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in exposed coastal parts between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island during Saturday if the system tracks further south than expected. GALES may then extend to exposed coastal parts from Cockatoo Island to northern parts of the Dampier Peninsula on Saturday evening.

Tides may be higher than expected between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island on Saturday.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts (effective as of 1800 05 APR 2019):

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, not including Derby, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.emergency.wa.gov.au

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 11 pm April 5 tropical low 11.9S 125.9E 45
+6hr 5 am April 6 1 12.1S 125.1E 70
+12hr 11 am April 6 1 12.3S 124.2E 90
+18hr 5 pm April 6 1 12.6S 123.2E 115
+24hr 11 pm April 6 2 12.8S 122.2E 135
+36hr 11 am April 7 2 13.3S 120.0E 175
+48hr 11 pm April 7 3 14.1S 118.1E 210
+60hr 11 am April 8 3 15.1S 116.6E 245
+72hr 11 pm April 8 3 16.0S 115.6E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

INDONESIA

IDJ21030
METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS COUNCIL
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta

INFORMATION BUILTIN TROPICAL CYCLE

Issued by TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA
At: 22:11 WIB 05/04/2019

97S Tropical Depression

Conditions on 05/04/2019 at 19:00 WIB:
Position: 11.9LS, 126.3BT (about 345 km southeast of Kupang)
Motion Direction: Southwest, speed of 10 knots (18 km / h) moves away from Indonesian territory
Speed
Maximum Wind: 30 knots (55 km / h)

24 hour prediction, 06/04/2019 at 19:00 WIB:
Position: 12.8LS, 122.7BT (around 310 km south-west of Kupang)
Motion Direction: Southwest moves away from Indonesian territory
Speed
Maximum Wind: 50 knots (95 km / h)

48 hour prediction, 07/04/2019 at 19:00 WIB:
Position: 13.9LS, 118.6BT
Motion Direction: Southwest moves away from Indonesian territory
Speed
Maximum Wind: 60 knots (110 km / h)

72 hour prediction, 08/04/2019 at 19:00 WIB:
Position: 15.9LS, 115.8BT
Motion Direction: Southwest moves away from Indonesian territory
Speed
Maximum Wind: 75 knots (140 km / h)

IMPACT ON WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
Tropical Cyclone Seed 97S has an impact on the weather in Indonesia in the form of:
– Rain with moderate intensity in Southeast Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku and Papua.
– Strong winds in the Maluku region, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara and Papua.
– Sea waves with a height of 2.5 – 4.0 m South of P. Sawu waters, waters south of Kupang.
– Sea waves with an altitude of 4.0 – 6.0 m. The waters south of P. Rotte, Timor Sea south of NTT, the southern Indian Ocean of NTT.

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Saturday

IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 22:11 WIB 05/04/2019

Depresi Tropis 97S

Kondisi tanggal 05/04/2019 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 11.9LS, 126.3BT (sekitar 345 km sebelah tenggara Kupang)
Arah Gerak : Barat Daya, kecepatan 10 knots (18 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 06/04/2019 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 12.8LS, 122.7BT (sekitar 310 km sebelah selatan barat daya Kupang)
Arah Gerak : Barat Daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 07/04/2019 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 13.9LS, 118.6BT
Arah Gerak : Barat Daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 60 knots (110 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 08/04/2019 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 15.9LS, 115.8BT
Arah Gerak : Barat Daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 75 knots (140 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Bibit Siklon Tropis 97S memberikan dampak terhadap cuaca di Indonesia berupa:
– Hujan dengan intensitas sedang – lebat di wilayah Sulawesi Tenggara, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Maluku dan Papua.
– Angin Kencang di wilayah Maluku, Nusa Tenggara Barat, Nusa Tenggara Timur dan Papua.
– Gelombang laut dengan ketinggian 2.5 – 4.0 m Perairan selatan P. Sawu, Perairan selatan Kupang.
– Gelombang laut dengan ketinggian 4.0 – 6.0 m Perairan selatan P. Rotte, Laut Timor selatan NTT, Samudra Hindia selatan NTT.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 5 Apr, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm TWENTYTHREE is currently located near 11.8 S 126.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). TWENTYTHREE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Indonesia
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nemperola (10.9 S, 122.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Kalumburu (14.2 S, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Twentythree) Warning #03
Issued at 05/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
051200Z — NEAR 11.8S 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 126.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 12.1S 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 12.6S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 13.0S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 13.8S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 15.5S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 16.8S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 17.9S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 126.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050955Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BEING OBSCURED
BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND APRF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). DESPITE EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ARE MARGINAL OVERALL THANKS TO HIGH (25-
30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU
48, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE TC ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THERE IS A CHANCE VWS WILL REMAIN
STRONG, SUPPRESSING INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT, BUT SPREAD REMAINS HIGH (ABOUT 468 NM BETWEEN ECMWF AND
NAVGEM AT TAU 120). ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
WHILE NAVGEM DEPICTS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENSION OF THE STR AXIS BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

 MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:12S126E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1250UTC 5 APRIL 2019

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal nine south (11.9S)
longitude one hundred and twenty six decimal three east (126.3E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1004 hPa

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 1200 UTC 06
April.

From 1800 UTC 5 April winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE
quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

From 1200 UTC 06 April winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre
with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 06 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.3 south 124.7 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 06 April: Within 75 nautical miles of 12.8 south 122.7 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 05 April 2019.

WEATHER PERTH

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Rodrigues (Mauritius)/ Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA 22S 26/1500Z positon near 19.6S 65.2E, moving ESE 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Mar 2019 1813Z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA (13, 22S)

Joaninha is a Category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 38 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Joaninha) Warning #19
Issued at 26/1500Z

sh2219-1

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
261200Z — NEAR 19.5S 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 65.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 19.9S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 20.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 20.7S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 21.3S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 23.2S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 25.6S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 27.7S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A 15-NM WIDE EYE AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE MSI AND
AN EYE FEATURE IN A 261146Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 22S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE
TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 96,
INCREASED BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 22S TO BEGIN
TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 100 KTS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 45 KTS BY TAU 120.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD (OVER 450 NM BY TAU 12) IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF AND GALWEM BEING THE WESTERNMOST AND
EASTERNMOST MEMBERS, RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) FOR FINAL WARNING
ON THAT SYSTEM (WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

 

Bulletin du 26 mars à 16H23 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JOANINHA.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 185 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 260 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 942 hPa.Position le 26 mars à 16 heures locales Réunion: 19.5 Sud / 64.8 Est.Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 955 km au secteur: ESTDistance de Mayotte: 2230 km au secteur: EST-SUD-ESTDéplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 11 km/h.Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système

 

Bulletin of March 26 at 16:23 local Réunion:

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOANINHA.Vents maximum (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 185 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 260 km / h. Estimated pressure in the center: 942 hPa. Position on March 26 at 4 pm Réunion: 19.5 South / 64.8 East.Distance from the Reunion coast: 955 km to the area: EASTMayotte: 2230 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTHEAST: EAST-SOUTHEAST, 11 km /h.This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see menu on the right) for forecasts on this system

 

METEOSAT Imagery

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2019 0:00 GMT

 

Intense Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA is currently located near 19.1 S 63.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). JOANINHA is a category 3 (Edit: Now CAT 4) storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. JOANINHA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Scale) or above winds

 

Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 4 (major)

130-156 mph

113-136 kt

209-251 km/h

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO20 FMEE 261225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 26/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOANINHA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 64.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/27 AT 12 UTC:
20.6 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Tropical Storm IBA 26/1200Z near 20.7S 037.7W (estimated), moving S ~05kt 1002hpa (BNHC Brazil data) – Published 26 Mar 2019 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm IBA

A rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic off the southeast coast of Brazil

GOES 16 Image

2019-03-26 16:10:19 UTC

GOES16 IBA.png

xxx

 

Centro de

Hidrografia da Marinha

Marinha do Brasil

Warnings

SPECIAL WARNING

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

AREA ALFA

WARNING NR 207/2019
ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – SUN – 24/MAR/2019
AREA ALFA STARTING AT 250000 UTC. WAVES FM SW/SE 3.0/4.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 213/2019
HIGH SURF  WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
HIGH SURF BETWEEN CHUÍ (RS) AND TRAMANDAÍ (RS) STARTING AT 261200 UTC. WAVES FROM SE 2.5 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 271200 UTC.

AREA DELTA

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

WARNING NR 214/2019
ROUGH/VERY ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA N OF 23S AND E OF 040W STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WAVES FM E/NE 3.0/5.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 216/2019
HIGH SURF  WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
HIGH SURF BETWEEN MARATAÍZES (ES) AND LINHARES (ES) STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WAVES FROM SE 2.5 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 270000 UTC.

WARNING NR 218/2019
SEVERE GALE/STORM WARNING
ISSUED AT 2200 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA N OF 23S STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WIND SE/NE E OF 037W AND SW/SE BETWEEN 037W AND 040W FORCE 9/10 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 271200 UTC.
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 212/2019.

WARNING NR 219/2019
ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – TUE – 26/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA E OF 039W STARTING AT 270000 UTC. WAVES FM SE/NE BECOMING SW/SE 3.0/4.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 281200 UTC.

WARNING NR 220/2019
NEAR GALE/SEVERE GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC – TUE – 26/MAR/2019
AREA DELTA E OF 038W STARTING AT 271200 UTC. WIND SW/SE FORCE 7/9 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 281200 UTC.

AREA ECHO

WARNING NR 217/2019
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1830 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM “IBA” WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AT 19.9S037.3W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 47 KT. FORECAST: CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 8/10 (34-55 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS WITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER AND WIND SW/SE FORCE 7 (28-33 KNOTS) NEAR THE COAST OVER AREA DELTA BETWEEN 22S E 19S.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
260000 UTC: 20.2S038W – 1006 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-45 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
260600 UTC: 20.5S037.9W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35-50 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261200 UTC: 20.7S037.7W -1002 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
261800 UTC: 21.2S037.5W -1000 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
270000 UTC: 21.3S037.2W -998 HPA – ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40-55 KNOTS – TROPICAL STORM
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 211/2019.

WARNING NR 215/2019
NEAR GALE/GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC – MON – 25/MAR/2019
AREA ECHO S OF 18S STARTING AT 260000 UTC. WIND NE/NW FORCE 7/8 WITH GUSTS.
VALID UNTIL 261800 UTC.

FQST02 SBBR 260230
1 31 05 02 12 20

 

Page 1
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK AND SUPPLY
National Institute of Meteorology – INMET
Monumental Axis – Via S1 – Southwest – 70680-900 – Brasília-DF – Phone: + (55) (61) 2102-4602 – Fax: + (55) (61) 2102-4620
NOTE 2: TROPICAL STORM “IBA”
Bra Sília, March 25, 2019
The Brazilian Navy, through the Center for Hydrography of the Navy (CHM) and in collaboration
with the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and the Center for Forecasting Weather and Studies
(CPTEC / INPE), participates that Tropical Storm “Iba” is located on the high seas, with
center in the geographical position 19,9ºS 037,3ºW, at the height of the coast referring to the city of Linhares
(ES), extending between the southern coast of the state of Bahia and northern Espírito Santo, and presented
maximum intensity of the winds of 101 km / h (55 knots) at 15:00 on the 25th, in a circle of 185
Km around the position of its center, therefore only in the maritime region. Your displacement
continues predominantly to the South, with a slight component to the West until the 25th
night, when it is expected that it will move with a light component to the East until the 26th
night, away from the coast. Its effects can continue to be felt on the southern coast of the state
Bahia and Espírito Santo until the 26th at night, when it is expected that it will not influence the coast
south of Bahia and also influence the northern coast of Rio de Janeiro. Will be issued new
update until the end of day 26.
Strong winds are expected between the northern coast of the state of Rio de Janeiro and the south coast
of Bahia, reaching 101 km / h (55 knots) on the high seas in the east sector of the cyclone, and 61 km / h (33
us) by the coast, between the 25th at night and the 26th at night. There is forecast of thick sea to very thick
on the same stretch of coastline, with wave heights between 3.0 and 5.0 meters at sea, between day 25
in the evening and in the evening at night. There is a possibility of hangover reaching the coast between Vitoria
(ES) and Caravelas (BA), with waves up to 2,5 meters, until the 25th at night, and between Marataízes (ES)
and Linhares (ES), between the 25th at night and the 26th at night. The severe weather condition caused
by this system will occur mainly on the high seas, associated with heavy rain.

Page 2
Monumental Axis – Via S1 – Southwest – 70680-900 – Brasília-DF – Phone: + (55) (61) 2102-4602 – Fax: + (55) (61) 2102-4620
The Brazilian Navy maintains all the bad weather warnings in force at the electronic address
The Brazilian Navy, INMET and CPTEC / INPE will accompany the formation and performance of this
system in the next few days and updates will be posted on the sites:
Facebook, under “@servicometeorologicomb” and “@inpe.cptec”. The information can also be
accessed through the “Bulletin to the Sea” application, which is available for download at
Internet, both for the Android system and for IOS, developed in partnership between the Navy
of Brazil and the Institute Towards the Sea (RUMAR)

 

Other Sources

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA): Tropical Cyclone VERONICA 25/1800Z near 20.5S 116.4E, moving WSW ~4.8kt. (BoM) – Updated 25 Mar 2019 1920Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA 21S

Tropical Cyclone Veronica, near Dampier, weakening as it moves steadily westwards.

Warning zone: Dampier to Mardie, including the Burrup Peninsula.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Roebourne to Dampier, including Karratha.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 11 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Veronica

Issued at 2:50 am AWST Tuesday 26 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 69.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Veronica, near Dampier, weakening as it moves steadily westwards.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Dampier to Mardie, including the Burrup Peninsula.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Roebourne to Dampier, including Karratha.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Veronica at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.5 degrees South, 116.4 degrees East , 35 kilometres west northwest of Dampier and 55 kilometres west northwest of Karratha .
Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Veronica is a Category 1 system and is weakening as it moves towards the west southwest. It is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity in the next three to six hours.

Hazards:

Widespread, very heavy rainfall conducive to MAJOR FLOODING is likely over the central Pilbara coast and adjacent inland areas, easing gradually during Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected to result in significant river rises, areas of flooding and hazardous road conditions. Some roads may become impassable and some communities may become isolated. Flood Warnings and Watches are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring at exposed coastal locations near Dampier. Gales could extend west towards Mardie in the next three to six hours before the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near communities between Mardie and Whim Creek including Whim Creek, Point Samson, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier need to remain in shelter until the all clear is given.

ALL CLEAR: All Clear with caution for people between the communities of Whim Creek and Port Hedland (not including Whim Creek or Mardie) and people in or near communities of the inland Pilbara, Barrow Island, Pannawonica and surrounding areas are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am March 26 1 20.5S 116.4E 30
+6hr 8 am March 26 tropical low 20.7S 115.7E 50
+12hr 2 pm March 26 tropical low 21.0S 114.9E 70
+18hr 8 pm March 26 tropical low 21.3S 114.1E 95
+24hr 2 am March 27 tropical low 21.5S 113.3E 120
+36hr 2 pm March 27 tropical low 21.8S 112.1E 155
+48hr 2 am March 28 tropical low 21.8S 111.1E 190
+60hr 2 pm March 28 tropical low 21.3S 109.8E 230
+72hr 2 am March 29 tropical low 20.6S 108.4E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Tuesday

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2019 6:00 GMT

 

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 25 Mar, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VERONICA is currently located near 20.4 S 116.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). VERONICA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
    Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Veronica) Warning #24
Issued at 25/1500Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 20.4S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 116.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 20.8S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 21.4S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 22.1S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, BETWEEN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AIRPORT AND OTHER LOCAL STATIONS
APPROXIMATELY 20-25 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH REPORT 33-35 KTS OF
SUSTAINED WINDS, AND MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KTS). TC 21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WITH HIGH VWS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID WEAKENING
AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION, HIGH VWS, AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH OF LEARMONTH, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED
EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH. OVERALL,
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 100NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:20S117E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1235UTC 25 MARCH 2019

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Veronica was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal five south (20.5S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal nine east (116.9E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 989 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 26
March and to 25 knots by 1200 UTC 26 March.

Winds above 34 knots within 45 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.8 south 115.4 east near
the coast
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 21.4 south 113.8 east near
the coast
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 March 2019.

WEATHER PERTH
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (QLD/NT): Severe Tropical Cyclone TREVOR 20P 22/1500Z position near 15.2S 138.5E, moving WSW 04kt (JTWC) Intensifying! – Updated 22 Mar 2019 1637Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor 20P

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to Australian Category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning (BoM)

Trevor is currently a Category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a Category 3 storm on the same scale by 23 Mar, 0:00 (TSR data)

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba (BoM)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Trevor) Warning #20
Issued at 22/1500Z

sh2019

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221200Z — NEAR 15.0S 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 138.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 15.9S 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 17.1S 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 18.4S 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 20.0S 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD A
PINHOLE BUT PROMINENT EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT STACKED DIRECTLY OVER A
COMPACT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS TO T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW, ADRM, AND
KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA JUST AFTER TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 36, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD DEEPER INTO THE AUSTRALIAN
OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
GOC WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM UP TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor

Issued at 11:34 pm AEST Friday 22 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 43.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor at 10:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South, 138.9 degrees East , 185 kilometres north of Mornington Is and 305 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is forecast to cross the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border Saturday morning with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts to 275 km/h near the cyclone centre as it approaches and crosses the coast.

Coastal residents between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING during Friday night and Saturday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a STORM TIDE is also expected between the NT/QLD border and Burketown. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

GALES, with gusts to 120 km/h are occuring on Mornington Island, Sweers Island and expected to develop on the mainland coast between Port Roper in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland and on Groote Eylandt in the next few hours. GALES are expected to extend inland into the eastern Carpentaria, northern Barkly Districts and the northwest Gulf Country on Saturday morning. Inland locations which may be affected on Saturday and early Sunday include Doomadgee, Creswell Downs, Cape Crawford, Robinson River, McArthur River, Wollogorang and Brunette Downs.

HEAVY RAINFALL is likely to cause significant stream rises and localised flooding in the eastern Carpentaria District from early Saturday. A Flood Watch has been issued for Carpentaria Coastal Rivers and the Barkly in the Northern Territory.

HEAVY RAINFALL will also develop over the western Gulf Country in Queensland as the cyclone moves inland tomorrow. Flood Warnings are current in Queensland for the Daintree and Mossman Rivers, as well as a broader Flood Watch for catchments north of Cairns to Kowanyama, the western Gulf Country, and the Channel Country.

Recommended Action:

People between the NT/QLD border and Burketown, and in areas extending inland to Doomadgee, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place, especially securing boats and property.

– Information is available from your local government.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises:

Residents from Alyangula to NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt and Borroloola

-Prepare you home and yard for severe cyclone;

-Follow direction and advice of local emergency services;

communities under Watch:

-Prepare for wet and windy conditions and consider the situation when the cyclone travels far inland;

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au. Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 22 3 15.0S 138.9E 30
+6hr 4 am March 23 4 15.4S 138.3E 50
+12hr 10 am March 23 4 15.9S 137.6E 70
+18hr 4 pm March 23 3 16.4S 136.8E 95
+24hr 10 pm March 23 2 17.0S 136.1E 120
+36hr 10 am March 24 tropical low 18.6S 135.1E 155
+48hr 10 pm March 24 tropical low 20.1S 135.1E 190
+60hr 10 am March 25 tropical low 21.3S 135.8E 230
+72hr 10 pm March 25 tropical low 21.7S 137.3E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:30 am AEST Saturday

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor

Issued at 10:58 pm ACST Friday 22 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 43.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Dangerous conditions are expected tonight along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor approaches. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast during Saturday morning between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Alyangula in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, and inland parts of the eastern Carpentaria District and the northwest Gulf Country, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Borroloola, Robinson River, Wollogorang, McArthur River, Cape Crawford, Creswell Downs, Brunette Downs and Doomadgee.

Watch zone: Inland parts of the northwest Gulf Country in Queensland and the western Carpentaria and central Barkly Districts in the Northern Territory.

Cancelled zones: Burketown to Karumba.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor at 9:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South, 138.9 degrees East , 185 kilometres north of Mornington Is and 305 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to intensify to category 4 intensity before crossing the Northern Territory coast on Saturday morning.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is forecast to cross the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border Saturday morning with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts to 275 km/h near the cyclone centre as it approaches and crosses the coast.

Coastal residents between Port Roper and the NT/Queensland Border are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING during Friday night and Saturday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a STORM TIDE is also expected between the NT/QLD border and Burketown. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

GALES, with gusts to 120 km/h are occuring on Mornington Island, Sweers Island and expected to develop on the mainland coast between Port Roper in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland and on Groote Eylandt in the next few hours. GALES are expected to extend inland into the eastern Carpentaria, northern Barkly Districts and the northwest Gulf Country on Saturday morning. Inland locations which may be affected on Saturday and early Sunday include Doomadgee, Creswell Downs, Cape Crawford, Robinson River, McArthur River, Wollogorang and Brunette Downs.

HEAVY RAINFALL is likely to cause significant stream rises and localised flooding in the eastern Carpentaria District from early Saturday. A Flood Watch has been issued for Carpentaria Coastal Rivers and the Barkly in the Northern Territory.

HEAVY RAINFALL will also develop over the western Gulf Country in Queensland as the cyclone moves inland tomorrow. Flood Warnings are current in Queensland for the Daintree and Mossman Rivers, as well as a broader Flood Watch for catchments north of Cairns to Kowanyama, the western Gulf Country, and the Channel Country.

Recommended Action:

People between the NT/QLD border and Burketown, and in areas extending inland to Doomadgee, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place, especially securing boats and property.

– Information is available from your local government.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises:

Residents from Alyangula to NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt and Borroloola

-Prepare you home and yard for severe cyclone;

-Follow direction and advice of local emergency services;

communities under Watch:

-Prepare for wet and windy conditions and consider the situation when the cyclone travels far inland;

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au. Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Details:

Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 22 3 15.0S 138.9E 30
+6hr 4 am March 23 4 15.4S 138.3E 50
+12hr 10 am March 23 4 15.9S 137.6E 70
+18hr 4 pm March 23 3 16.4S 136.8E 95
+24hr 10 pm March 23 2 17.0S 136.1E 120
+36hr 10 am March 24 tropical low 18.6S 135.1E 155
+48hr 10 pm March 24 tropical low 20.1S 135.1E 190
+60hr 10 am March 25 tropical low 21.3S 135.8E 230
+72hr 10 pm March 25 tropical low 21.7S 137.3E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am ACST Saturday

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA is currently located near 18.1 S 116.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 95 kts (109 mph). VERONICA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. VERONICA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (US Hurricane Scale) or above winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:15S139E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1334UTC 22 MARCH 2019

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal zero south (15.0S)
longitude one hundred and thirty eight decimal nine east (138.9E)
Recent movement : southwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 962 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 100 knots by 0000 UTC
23 March.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.9 south 137.6 east
Central pressure 944 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 17.0 south 136.1 east (over
land)
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 22 March 2019.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Palau/ Philippines/ WestPacific: Tropical Depression THREE 03W 16/1500Z position near 7.3N 137.0E, moving W 12kt (JTWC) – Published 15 Mar 2019 1912Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression THREE (03W)

“CHEDENG” in Philippines

Palau and Philippines beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET _ JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

wp0319

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 7.4N 137.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N 137.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 7.2N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 7.0N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 6.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 6.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 6.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 137.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
EAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

PAGASA logoPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Cyclone Advisory # 2

Tropical Depression

Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 March 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11 AM Tomorrow)
Synopsis

The Tropical Depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) continues to move generally westward over the sea in western Caroline Islands

Location of Center  (8:00 AM today)

The center of the Tropical Depression was estimated based on all available data at 1,505 km East of Mindanao (OUTSIDE PAR)(07.8°N,140.0°E)

Maximum Sustained Winds

45 km/h near the center

Gustiness

Up to 60 km/h

Movement

West at 20 km/h

tca
Forecast Positions and Intensities
Tomorrow morning
17 March 2019
970 km East of Mindanao () (OUTSIDE PAR) (07.6°N, 135.1°E)
Tropical Depression
Monday morning
18 March 2019
485 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (07.3°N, 130.6°E)
Tropical Depression
Tuesday morning
19 March 2019
In the vicinity of Manay, Davao Oriental (07.2°N, 126.5°E)
Tropical Depression
The Tropical Depression may enter the PAR between late evening tonight and tomorrow morning. Once inside the PAR, it will be named “CHEDENG”. Scattered to at times widespread heavy rains may be experienced over parts of Mindanao on Monday and Tuesday due to this weather disturbance. Residents in these areas, especially those living in areas at high risk of flooding and landslides, and the concerned disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to continue monitoring for updates. This weather disturbance may make landfall over the eastern coast of Davao Oriental between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. However, there remains a possibility that this Tropical Depression will weaken into a Low Pressure Area before coming onshore.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to monitor for the next update to be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast at 4 PM today and 4 AM tomorrow. The next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 40N 152E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 152E TO 40N 154E 40N 155E.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 155E TO 37N 160E 35N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 155E TO 37N 156E 30N 152E 25N 145E 23N 141E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 6 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 42N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 44N 168E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 1010 HPA AT 44N 145E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK EAST CHINA SEA
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 170E
47N 180E 35N 180E 30N 170E 30N 150E 37N 156E 40N 150E 40N 143E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 41N 126E SE 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 56N 146E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 51N 167E EAST 25 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 59N 179E ESE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 137E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 28N 125E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 32N 173E ESE 25 KT.
REMARKS.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: Crew rescued from French fishing vessel, La Fanette, off Lands End – Published 15 Mar 2019 1600z (GMT/UTC)

Six crew from a fishing vessel in distress were airlifted from their disabled vessel off Lands End in atrocious weather conditions over night on 12th March.

 

HM Coastguard was alerted at around 10pm on Tuesday night to the 24 metre French registered fishing vessel, La Fanette which had suffered engine failure. Another fishing vessel went to assist and HM Coastguard requested the launch of Sennen Cove RNLI lifeboat. Despite atrocious weather, Sennen Cove lifeboat launched but due to 5-6 metre waves on scene and storm force winds, it was impossible for either the fishing vessel or the lifeboat to establish a tow with La Fanette. Penlee RNLI all weather lifeboat also attended.

The six crew on board were airlifted from the fishing vessel by Newquay coastguard rescue helicopter.

Speaking after this morning’s incredible rescue, Captain Sharky Finn from Newquay coastguard helicopter said: ‘This is definitely one of the most challenging jobs we’ve seen at Newquay. We were flying into a force 8 gale with 20ft high waves swirling beneath us and we could clearly see the fishing vessel disappearing beneath the swell as we approached.

‘We had the support of RNLI Sennen Cove on scene who had tried to establish a tow line but were unable to do so because of the severe weather conditions.

‘We tried a variety of different winching positions as the fishing vessel pitched and rolled violently underneath us before lowering a hi-line and then our winchman to the bow. The only way we could do this was turn the helicopter 90 degrees out of winds which meant we were effectively flying sideways. Needless to say, it was very challenging deck; it stretched the capabilities of both the crew and the aircraft. However, despite this pressure we were able to take our time and safely recovered all six crewmates and our winchman to the aircraft before returning to the Newquay base. We’re grateful for the support of the Newquay coastguard rescue team and the Newlyn seaman’s mission who met us when we returned.’

Athough weather conditions are still quite rough due to Storm Gareth the sister vessel ‘Faradet’ has successfully established a tow with the ‘La Fanette’ and it is now safely under tow proceeding to rendezvous with a French tug on route from Brest.

There has been no pollution reported however HM Coastguard will continue to monitor the vessel whilst it’s in UK waters.

Statement from Sennen Cove Lifeboat Station

“Wednesday 13th March
The lifeboat launched just after midnight to assist the French trawler La Fanette, disabled, with 6 persons on board, some 10 miles west-northwest of Sennen Cove.
The lifeboat arrived with the trawler an hour later in severe conditions with a swell peaking near 20ft (roughly a two-storey house) and winds gusting to over 70mph.
Another trawler had attempted to pass a tow without success. After careful consideration the lifeboat crew decided that the risk of incurring damage and / or injuries to the crew in attempting to pass a tow – and subsequently attempting to tow the trawler – was too great, and the lifeboat stood by the vessel.
The rate of drift would have put the trawler ashore in roughly three hours. With this in mind, the vessel`s crew deployed their trawling gear and warps, which dramatically reduced the rate of drift and stabilised the situation.
Having consulted within their organisation at the highest level; also with counter-pollution authorities, the trawler`s owners and insurers, the Coastguard advised that the crew would be evacuated by helicopter.
In what the lifeboat crew described as a brilliant piece of flying, the 6 crewmen were evacuated by the coastguard helicopter – the operation has been widely described elsewhere on facebook and other media.
Penlee lifeboat had also been launched around 0330 to provide further cover to the overall operation, and endured a very poor passage around the Runnelstone and The Longships.
With the trawler`s crew safe, the lifeboats were released roughly around 0500 and both lifeboats proceeded to Newlyn, as conditions were way too poor for recovery at Sennen Cove.
The trawler was left anchored by her fishing gear. She dragged this over a few miles and was eventually taken in tow in slightly improved conditions by her sister trawler later in the afternoon and towed back to France.

Whilst this station traditionally does not seek publicity and is happy just to `get on with it`, working out of one of the most hazardous locations in the country, this event must not be left to pass without heaping huge praise on our crew. The conditions on Wednesday morning were very likely the worst that Sennen Cove Lifeboat has launched into since the `Julian Paul` job in 1994 – and may very well have been more severe than that night.
Wednesday`s crew … Ollie George; Richard Brown; Dan Shannon; Kirstan Gorvin; Jason Woodward; Nick Hichens; Tom Nicholas … did a superb job. Each and every one of you should be hugely proud – you are a great credit both to the Station and the RNLI.”

 

Mozambique/ Zimbabwe: Intense Tropical Cyclone IDAI 18S 141500Z position near 19.9S 35.9E, moving W 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 14 Mar 2019 1742Z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone IDAI (11,18S)

IDAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 18S (Idai) Warning #22
Issued at 14/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTXS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 19.9S 36.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 36.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 19.7S 34.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 19.3S 33.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 18.8S 31.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 18.3S 30.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 35.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 141129Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT A 45NM ROUND EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO 5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW DESPITE THE WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. SST VALUES (27-28C) HAVE
COOLED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 12 BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT
DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVERLAND. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 12, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

METEO FRANCE  La Réunion

 

Bulletin of March 14 at 16:12 local Réunion:

INTENSE IDAI TROPICAL CYCLONE. Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 185 km / h. Estimated pressure in the center: 955 hPa. Position March 14 at 16:00 local Meeting: 19.9 South / 36.2 East.Distance of the Reunion coast: 1980 km to the sector: WESTDistance from Mayotte: 1230 km to the sector: SOUTH-WESTMove: WEST, 15 km / h.This bulletin is now completed.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see right menu) for predictions on this system.

Bulletin du 14 mars à 16H12 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE IDAI.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 165 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 185 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 955 hPa.Position le 14 mars à 16 heures locales Réunion: 19.9 Sud / 36.2 Est.Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1980 km au secteur: OUESTDistance de Mayotte: 1230 km au secteur: SUD-OUESTDéplacement: OUEST, à 15 km/h.Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

UCL University College London, UK

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Mar, 2019 12:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone IDAI is currently located near 19.9 S 36.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). IDAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. IDAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mozambique
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zimbabwe
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Machece (19.2 S, 35.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beira (19.8 S, 34.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nova Sofala (20.1 S, 34.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Chimoio (19.1 S, 33.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Nova Mambone (21.0 S, 35.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chinde (18.8 S, 36.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Inhassore (21.5 S, 35.1 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Quelimane (17.9 S, 36.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO24 FMEE 141214
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 36.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 32.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

South-West Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone HALEH(10,17S) 04/1800Z 19.2S 72.4E, moving SSW 06kt (948hpa at 1200Z)(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 04 Mar 2019 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone HALEH (10,17S)

HALEH is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43 FEET – JTWC

 

 

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

trajectoire

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT – RSMC La Réunion

Bulletin of 04 March at 16:10 Réunion:

TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE HALEH. Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km / h. Estimated maximum sea speeds: 240 km / h. Estimated pressure at the center: 948 hPa. Position March 04 at 16:00 local Réunion: 18.6 South / 72.7 East.Distance from the Reunion coast: 1785 km to the sector: ESTDistance from Mayotte: 3010 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EASTLocation: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, 13 km /h.This bulletin is now complete.See the Cyclonic Activity Bulletin (see menu on the right) for forecasts on this system

WTIO31 FMEE 041252 CMRS / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF THE RéunionCOUNT OF ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 13/10 / 201820191.

A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 04/03/2019: IN A RADIUS OF 20 NM AROUND 18.6 S / 72.7 E (EIGHTEENTH DEGREES SIX SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVENTY TWO DEGREES SEAS EAST) DISPLACEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5 / 5.5 / D 1.0 / 12 H4.A CENTER PRESSURE: 948 HPA5.WIND MAX (MEDIUM / 10 NM): 90 MAXIMUM WINDS KTRAYON (RVM): 28 KM6.A WIND EXTENSION BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KW SE: 280 SE: 430 S: 430 NO: 19034 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 13048 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 9064 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 507.A COAST / DIAM FIRST ISOBARE CLOSED: 1001 HPA / 400 KM8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: PROFONDE1.B FORECAST: 12H: 05/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E , WIND MAX = 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE24H: 05/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 095 KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE36H: 06/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, WIND MAX = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE48H: 06/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIN = 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL60H: 07/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIN = 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE72H: 07/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIN = 060 KT, STRONG TROPICAL STORM2.B FUTURE TREND: 96H: 08/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND = 050 KT, STRONG TROPICAL STORM120H: 09/03/2019 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, LOW PRESSURE POST-TROPICAL.C COMMENTS:
T = CI = 5.5 OVER 6 HOURS, CLOUDY CONFIGURATION HAS REMAINED WELL THAN WITH WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SOUTH AREA. THIS WEAKNESS INDICATES A DVORAK ANALYSIS LIMITING THE CI TO 5.5. 1130UTC MICROWAVE DATA LEAVE THIS WEAKNESS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION.THE SHORTLY EXPECTED FORECAST FOR A SHORTLY EXPECTED TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY MORE TRAJECTORY TO THE WEST THAN INITIALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PUSH OF A NEW RIDGE THAT IS SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE TALWEG PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH, THIS RIDGE WILL REPEATLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST, FOSTERING A MORE SOUTHLY TRACK FROM THURSDAY / FRIDAY. AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AWARE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE SUCCESSFUL TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW BEFORE THE ALTITUDE TALWEG THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A GOOD POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL. FROM WEDNESDAY, HALEH WILL LOCATE UNDER A MODERN VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN KNOW A SLOW WEAKENING. FROM THURSDAY WEAKNESS SHOULD BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT

Bulletin du 04 mars à 16H10 locales Réunion:

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE HALEH.Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 165 km/h.Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 240 km/h.Pression estimée au centre: 948 hPa.Position le 04 mars à 16 heures locales Réunion: 18.6 Sud / 72.7 Est.Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1785 km au secteur: ESTDistance de Mayotte: 3010 km au secteur: EST-SUD-ESTDéplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 13 km/h.Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.Consulter le Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système

WTIO31 FMEE 041252 CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNIONBULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/201820191.

A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (HALEH) 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/03/2019 :DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES SEPT EST)DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KTRAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):28 KT NE: 280 SE: 430 SO: 430 NO: 19034 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 13048 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 9064 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 507.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 400 KM8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE1.B PREVISIONS:12H: 05/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE24H: 05/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE36H: 06/03/2019 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE48H: 06/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL60H: 07/03/2019 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL72H: 07/03/2019 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:96H: 08/03/2019 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE120H: 09/03/2019 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5DURANT LES 6 HEURES PASSEES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL S’EST MAINTENUE BIEN QUE PRESENTANT UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST A SUD. CETTE FAIBLESSE INDUIT UNE ANALYSE DE DVORAK LIMITANT LE CI A 5.5. LES DONNES MICRO-ONDES DE 1130UTC LAISSENT SUPPOSER DE CETTE FAIBLESSE N’EST QUE TEMPORAIRE ET QUE LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE HALEH DEVRAIT CONTINUER SA LENTE INTENSIFICATION.LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU A COURTE ECHEANCE, A L’EXCEPTION D’UNE TRAJECTOIRE LEGEREMENT PLUS A L’OUEST QU’INITIALEMENT SOUS L’EFFET DE LA POUSSEE D’UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE QUI VIENT SE GLISSER PAR LE SUD-OUEST. AVEC LE PASSAGE DU TALWEG BIEN AU SUD, CETTE DORSALE VA DE NOUVEAU FAIBLIR ET SE DECALER A L’EST, FAVORISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD A PARTIR DE JEUDI/VENDREDI. EN FIN D’ECHEANCES, LA TRAJECTOIRE EST PREVUE S’ACCELERER.LE SYSTEME CONNAIT ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES POUR POURSUIVRE SA LENTE INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DEVRAIT RESTER FAIBLE A L’AVANT DU TALWEG D’ALTITUDE QUI CONTINUE DE FOURNIR UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D’ALTITUDE PAR UN BON CANAL POLAIRE D’EVACUATION. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HALEH VA SE LOCALISER SOUS UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE DE NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAITRE UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, L’AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS SIGNIFICATIF AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT EN HAUSSE ET UN CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Haleh) Warning #10
Issued at 04/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 18.7S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 72.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 19.6S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 20.6S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 21.6S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 22.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 26.1S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 30.0S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 34.8S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 25-30 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST SIX HOURS AND THE CLOUD FIELD HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SYMMETRIC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE MSI LOOP
AND AN EYE FEATURE IN A 041130Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17S WILL TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AROUND TAU 96, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS TC 17S ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THROUGH
TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE AND THE
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN AT 100 KTS OR GREATER THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AFTER TAU 48, A COMBINATION OF DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, INCREASED VWS,
AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN, FALLING TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TC 17S
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
LIES EAST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF
NAVGEM, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE BULK OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO20 FMEE 041805
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
21.3 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

FQIO26 FIMP 041245

2:31:08:11:00

PAN PAN

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII (S) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS ISSUED ON MONDAY 04 MARCH 2019 AT 1245 UTC.

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH.

HALEH HAS INTENSIFIED INTO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

AT 04/1200UTC INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE

948 HPA WAS CENTERED WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E

EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN

DEGREES EAST).

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 07 KT

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 160 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTE

RN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS AT 1200 UTC THIS MONDAY 04 MARCH 2019.

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 05S 56S, 07S 65E, 09S 73E.

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 948 HPA NEAR 18.6S AND 72.7E. MOVEMENT

SOUTH SOUTH WEST 07 KNOTS.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 04S 87E, 05S 91E, 07S 95E.

WAVE NEAR 09S 57E.

HIGH 1023 HPA NEAR 40S 54E.

HIGH 1035 HPA NEAR 40S 103E.

PART 3: AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS VALID UP TO TUESDAY 05 MARCH

2019 AT 1200 UTC.

NORTH EAST 8/1 AND EXTREME NORTH WEST 8/2: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF

PART 1.

REMAINING 8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 20-25 IN SOUTH EAST. SOUTH

EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 10-20 IN NORTH WEST. EAST SOUTH

EASTERLY BACKING TO NORTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH WEST. SEA ROUGH

BECOMING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH TOWARDS ITC ‘HALEH’. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN

EAST, ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY GOOD BECOMING MODERATE

IN SHOWERS.

REMAINING 8/2: EASTERLY TO EAST NORTH EASTERLY 20-25 IN NORTH.

EASTERLY 20 IN SOUTH, LOCALLY GUSTING 25 IN SOUTH WEST. SEA ROUGH

BECOMING VERY ROUGH IN NORTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTOR

S MAINLY IN NORTH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS, BECOMING POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

SOUTH EAST 8/3: SAME AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

REMAINING 8/3: SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH WEST.

SOUTHERLY VEERING TO WEST NORTH WESTERLY 10-20 ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY

GUSTING 25 IN NORTH EAST. SEA ROUGH BECOMING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN

SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN EAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

VISIBILITY GOOD IN WEST BECOMING MODERATE TO POOR IN EAST.

8/4: NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 20-25 IN EXTREME NORTH WEST VEERING TO

NORTH NORTH EASTERLY 25 IN SOUTH WEST. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH

EASTERLY 15-20 IN EXTREME EAST BACKING TO NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN

CENTRAL PART. SEA ROUGH IN WEST AND SOUTH EAST, MODERATE ELSEWHERE.

LOCALLY VERY ROUGH IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH

THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN WEST. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING

POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/5: NORTHERLY TO NORTH WESTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. NORTH WESTERLY TO

WESTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN

SOUTH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

8/6: NORTHERLY 10-15 IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. VARIABLE 05-10 IN

REMAINING WEST. SOUTHERLY 05 IN SOUTH EAST VEERING TO WESTERLY 10-15

ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

S. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/7: VARIABLE 05 IN SOUTH EAST. NORTHERLY TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 05

IN NORTH EAST. NORTHERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 05-10 IN WEST. SEA

MODERATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY GOOD.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

ITC ‘HALEH’ IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTH SOUTH WESTERLY

DIRECTION WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED

IN 8/1.

END=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Fiji/ Tonga/ South Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone POLA 16P 271500Z position nr 21.0S 178.0W. moving SSW 09kt (JTWC) – Published 27 Feb 2019 1900Z (GMT/UTC)

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA 16P

POLA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and Intensity Category 3 storm on the local Fiji scale

DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU AS TC POLA IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ONO-I-LAU TONIGHT – RSMC Nadi

Fiji and Tonga beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 27 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Pola) Warning #07
Issued at 27/1500Z

sh1619

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 20.6S 177.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 177.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 22.1S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 23.9S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 25.7S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 27.1S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 28.0S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 270916Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
16P IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO
25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 16P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE THROUGH TAU 48. SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL) WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION WITH TC 16P REACHING 90 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS AND WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TC 16P EASTWARD BY TAU 72 AND
ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
AGREEMENT BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone POLA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 153 issued 1631 UTC Wednesday 27 February 2019

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone POLA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 pm February 27 3 20.8S 177.9W 55
+6hr 9 pm February 27 3 21.6S 178.2W 85
+12hr 3 am February 28 3 22.3S 178.5W 110
+18hr 9 am February 28 3 23.2S 178.7W 140
+24hr 3 pm February 28 3 24.0S 178.9W 165
+36hr 3 am March 1 3 25.6S 179.0W 225
+48hr 3 pm March 1 3 26.9S 178.6W 285
+60hr 3 am March 2 2 27.7S 177.4W 375
+72hr 3 pm March 2 2 28.1S 175.5W 465

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 271334 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 972HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 177.8W AT
271200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND CONTINUING TO WRAP ONTO
LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW REMAINS
GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 250HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDED CENTER IN WHITE GIVES A DT=5.0,
MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO FT CONSTRAINTS. THUS YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 21.9S 178.4W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 23.5S 178.9W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 25.1S 179.1W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 26.5S 178.9W MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

HE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON POLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 272000 UTC.
Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 4:28am on Thursday the 28th of February 2019

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE LAU AND LOMAIVITI
GROUP.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 969HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8
SOUTH 177.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 KILOMETRES EAST OF ONO-I-LAU AND ABOUT 230
KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KABARA AT 3AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 130 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS
TO 185 KM/HR. THE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
140 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 195 KM/HR BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KM/HR AND THE CENTRE IS THE CLOSEST TO
ONO-I-LAU.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 190 KILOMETRES
SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU AT 3PM TODAY AND ABOUT 370 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU
AT 3AM TOMORROW.

FOR VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS
EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SPEED OF 45 TO 55 KM/HR, GUSTING TO 80
KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI
CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, FINE APART FROM AFTERNOON OR EVENING
SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN LAU WATERS: EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS.
FOR KORO SEA AND NORTHERN LAU WATERS: SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS: SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC POLA WILL BE ISSUED AT 7.30AM
TOMORROW OR EARLIER.

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICEGOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF FIJIMEDIA RELEASE No.324pm, Wednesday,27thFebruary2019
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER VATOA AND ONO-I-LAU AS TC POLA IS FORECASTEDTO PASS CLOSE TO ONO-I-LAU TONIGHT
At3pm this afternoon, TC Pola was located about 200kilometreseast-southeast of Lakeba and 200 kilometres northeast of Ono-i-Lau. TC Polaismovingsouth-southwest at 22km/hr, and should pass close to Ono-i-Lau tonight.
On theprojected track, TC Pola is expected to be located about 130 kilometres southeastof Ono-i-Lau at 3am tomorrow and about 300kilometres southof Ono-i-Lau at 3pmtomorrow.
For Vatoa andOno-i-Lau: Expect damaging gale force winds with average speeds up to 65 km/hr and momentary gusts to 90km/hr. Periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms is expected over these areas. Sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas of Vatoa and Ono-i-Lau due to damaging heavy swells.The effect of winds can cause damages to temporary sheds and weak structures, break tree branches, cause loose objects to fly, and uproot shallow rooted crops.
For the rest of the Lau and Lomaiviti Group: Expect fresh to strong southerly winds with speed of 45 to 55 km/hr, gusting to 80 km/hr. Periods of rain, heavy at times and a few thunderstorms is anticipated over these areas.
For the rest of Fiji: Expect cloudy periods with occasional showers and possible thunderstorms over the eastern parts of the larger islands. Elsewhere, expect fine weather apart from afternoon or evening showers. In anticipation of this, the following alert and warnings are currently in force:A “Heavy Rain Alert” is now in force for Lomaiviti Group, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands.A “Heavy Rain Warning” remains in force for the Lau and Lomaiviti Group. A “Gale Warning” is in force for Vatoa and Ono-i-Lau. A “Strong Wind Warning” remains in force for the rest of the Lau and Lomaiviti Group. For Southern Lau Waters:
Mariners can expect gale force winds up to 45 knots, gusting to 65 knots with high seas. Conditions are unsafe for sea activities.Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equippedvessels.For Koro Sea and Northern Lau Waters: Expect southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots, gusting to 40 knots with rough to very rough seas. Small craft operators are advised to exercise caution while venturing out into these waters.

For the rest of Fiji Waters: Expect southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots with moderate to rough seas.Localised heavy falls may leadto flash flooding of low lying areas. Therefore, those living in low lying and flood prone areas as well as landslide prone areas are advised to remain alert and take appropriate precaution if and when necessary.Members of the public are requested to remain updated with the latest weather information and take alerts and warnings seriously.For more details and the latest on weather, please contact the National Weather Forecasting Centre on 6736006, 9905376 or visit the Fiji Meteorological Service’s website, http://www.met.gov.fj. You can also visit the Fiji Meteorological Service official Facebook page for latest updates. Misaeli Funaki (Mr.)DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 27 Feb, 2019 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone POLA is currently located near 20.6 S 177.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). POLA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. POLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nuku’ alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 (SSHWC) or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WHPS01 NFFN 271200
HURRICANE WARNING 151 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 271307 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 972HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4 SOUTH 177.8
WEST AT 271200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.4S 177.8W at 271200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS BY
280000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.9S 178.4W AT 280000 UTC
AND NEAR 23.5S 178.9W AT 281200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 150.

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Guam/ Northern Mariana Islands/ Micronesia/ West Pacific: Typhoon WUTIP 02W 21/1500Z 7.4N 148.3E, moving WNW ~6.95kt (NWS Guam) – Updated 21 Feb 2019 1625Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON WUTIP 02W

…TYPHOON WUTIP CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY…

Wutip is a storm equivalent to Category 2 on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a Category 3 on same scale by 23 Feb, 0:00

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Satawal in Yap State and
for Puluwat in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch remain in effect for
Faraulep in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for Ulul in Chuuk
State.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan in the Mariana Islands and Woleai in Yap State.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 35 FEET – JTWC

NWS GUAM

errortrack1-2

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 211507
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Wutip (02W) Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP022019
107 AM ChST Fri Feb 22 2019

…TYPHOON WUTIP CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Satawal in Yap State and
for Puluwat in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch remain in effect for
Faraulep in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for Ulul in Chuuk
State.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan in the Mariana Islands and Woleai in Yap State.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
Location…7.4N 148.3E

About 55 miles west-northwest of Puluwat
About 85 miles east of Satawal
About 125 miles southwest of Ulul
About 240 miles west of Chuuk
About 270 miles east-southeast of Faraulep
About 300 miles east of Woleai
About 480 miles south-southeast of Guam
About 510 miles south-southeast of Rota
About 555 miles south-southeast of Tinian
About 560 miles south-southeast of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds…100 mph
Present movement…west-northwest…295 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Wutip was
located near Latitude 7.4 degrees North and Longitude
148.3 degrees East. Wutip is moving west-northwest at 8 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with an
increase in forward speed over the next 24 hours. It is expected
to pass southwest of the Mariana Islands late Saturday night and
early Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100 mph. Wutip is
forecast to intensify through Saturday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
35 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 150 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Ziobro

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 211010
HLSPQ1

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON WUTIP (02W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
810 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…TYPHOON WUTIP CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFIES…

.NEW INFORMATION…
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS…EASTERN YAP STATE AND CHUUK STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS…
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE AND
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM…ROTA…TINIAN
AND SAIPAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION…
AT 7 PM CHST…THE CENTER OF TYPHOON WUTIP (02W) WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 7.2N…LONGITUDE 148.8E. THIS WAS ABOUT 510 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-NORTHWEST. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 85 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW…
TYPHOON WUTIP IS WEST OF CHUUK LAGOON THIS EVENING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT. THAT
WOULD TAKE IT ACROSS EASTERN YAP STATE AND THEN APPROACHING THE
MARIANA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE…
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-211815-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
810 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS ON THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA. CHECK YOUR TYPHOON SHUTTERS AND MAKE SURE THEY ARE IN
WORKABLE CONDITIONS. CLEAR DRAINAGE AND STORM DRAINS AROUND THE
HOUSE. AS TYPHOON WUTIP PASSES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM ON SATURDAY
EVENING…DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

&&

…WINDS…
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

…STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE…
COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET TONIGHT WILL START BUILDING HIGHER ON
FRIDAY…REACHING 10 TO 12…AND UP TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN AND FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$

…PULUWAT…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY IN STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES.
TYPHOON FORCE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING. ALL BOATS SHOULD
REMAIN SECURED.

…WIND INFORMATION…
TYPHOON FORCE EAST WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY DAY BREAK.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE 20 TO 30 FEET THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 16 TO 20 FEET BY MIDNIGHT…THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE FURTHER TO 10 TO
15 FEET ON FRIDAY. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS LIKELY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

$$

…ULUL…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY IN STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALL BOATS SHOULD REMAIN
SECURED.

…WIND INFORMATION…
DAMAGING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT DAMAGING LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN.

$$

…SATAWAL…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY
IN STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM SHORE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND
WILL INCREASE TO TYPHOON FORCE SOON. ALL BOATS SHOULD REMAIN SECURED.

…WIND INFORMATION…
DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO
TYPHOON FORCE OF 70 TO 90 MPH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FEET WILL BUILD TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY LATE FRIDAY. INUNDATION OF
2 TO 4 FEET IS LIKELY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN.

$$

…FARAULEP…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS
EVENING. LOCATE STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES AND STORE FOOD
AND WATER. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING…AND
DANGEROUS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALL
BOATS MUST RETURN TO SHORE BY THIS EVENING.

…WIND INFORMATION…
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING
DAMAGING LEVELS OF 40 TO 55 MPH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 90 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL STEADILY BUILD AND REACH 12 TO 15
FEET ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 20 FT FRIDAY EVENING. INUNDATION OF
1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

…WOLEAI…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATE STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES
AND STORE FOOD AND WATER. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL BOATS SHOULD RETURN TO SHORE BY TONIGHT.

…WIND INFORMATION…
NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY REACH DAMAGING LEVELS OF 35 TO 45 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO WEST AND DECREASE ON SATURDAY.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD TONIGHT…REACHING 12 TO 15
FEET FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

SIMPSON

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 02W (Wutip) Warning #10
Issued at 21/1500Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 7.1N 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1N 148.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 8.3N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 9.7N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 11.0N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 12.3N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 13.9N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 15.6N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 17.8N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 148.3E.
TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Feb, 2019 12:00 GMT

Typhoon WUTIP is currently located near 7.1 N 148.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). WUTIP is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. WUTIP is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP31 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1902 WUTIP (1902) 970 HPA
AT 07.2N 148.4E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 08.6N 146.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 10.2N 144.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

==========================================================================================================

000
WHGM70 PGUM 210548
MWWGUM

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
348 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST…

.FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS TYPHOON WUTIP APPROACHES THE
WATERS.

PMZ151>154-212000-
/O.CON.PGUM.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190227T0800Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
348 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY…
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT…

* WINDS…NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS TYPHOON
WUTIP PASSES SOUTH OF GUAM.

* WAVES/SEAS…SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL THEN BUILD AS TYPHOON WUTIP MOVES PAST SOUTH OF
GUAM. COMBINED SEAS COULD REACH 20 FEET OVER GUAM AND ROTA WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WAVE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS…SHOULD AVOID SAILING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Vanuatu: Tropical Cyclone OMA 15P 171500Z position 16.5S 164.2E, moving S 05kt (JTWC) – Published 17 Feb 2019 1540Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone OMA 15P

New Caledonia and Vanuatu beware!

OMA expected to become a storm equivalent to Category 1 on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by 18 Feb, 12:00 UTC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 26 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 15P (Oma) Warning #23
Issued at 17/1500Z

sh1519

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 16.3S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 164.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 18.4S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 19.8S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 20.9S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 22.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 25.8S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 30.3S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC OMA HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED ITS EXPANSIVE
FEEDER BANDS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A
LARGE, RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC
IN THE 171034Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28
CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC OMA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS ECMWF THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

logoimage

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone OMA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 100 issued 1314 UTC Sunday 17 February 2019

65660

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone OMA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm February 17 2 16.1S 164.2E 185
+6hr 6 pm February 17 2 16.6S 164.1E 215
+12hr 12 am February 18 2 17.2S 163.9E 240
+18hr 6 am February 18 2 17.9S 163.7E 270
+24hr 12 pm February 18 2 18.5S 163.4E 295
+36hr 12 am February 19 2 19.8S 162.8E 355
+48hr 12 pm February 19 2 20.9S 162.4E 415
+60hr 12 am February 20 1 21.9S 162.0E 505
+72hr 12 pm February 20 1 22.9S 161.8E 590

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 171343 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 984HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 164.2E AT 171200 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OMA IN THE LAST 3-6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN
A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.
SYSTEM REMAIN SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS
DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, YIELDING T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 17.2S 163.9E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 18.5S 163.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 19.8S 162.8E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 20.9S 162.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 172000 UTC.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Feb, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm OMA is currently located near 16.1 S 164.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). OMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taktak (14.9 S, 166.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Luganville (15.5 S, 167.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E)
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Onetar (14.3 S, 167.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Vipaka (13.1 S, 166.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Noum’ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
    Foreas (13.9 S, 167.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Other

DocR Oma

(Image: )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

STORM WARNING 100 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 171309 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 984HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1 SOUTH 164.2
EAST AT 171200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.1S 164.2E at 171200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
181200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.2S 163.9E AT 180000 UTC
AND NEAR 18.5S 163.4E AT 181200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 099.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Fiji/ Rotuma/ South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone MONA 03F 04/1500Z near 13.7S 175.6E, moving NNW ~16kt (RSMC Nadi) – Published 04 Jan 2019 2000Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone MONA 09P, 04F

Tropical cyclone Mona has continued to intensify and upgraded into a Fiji category 2 tropical cyclone at 10am local time today

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND THE WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU .

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LAND AREAS AND WATERS OF FIJI
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WHOLE OF FIJI.

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone MONA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 33 issued 1612 UTC Friday 4 January 2019

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone MONA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 pm January 4 2 13.7S 175.6E 85
+6hr 9 pm January 4 2 13.6S 175.8E 110
+12hr 3 am January 5 2 13.6S 176.0E 140
+18hr 9 am January 5 2 13.8S 176.5E 165
+24hr 3 pm January 5 2 14.3S 177.0E 195
+36hr 3 am January 6 2 15.7S 178.2E 255
+48hr 3 pm January 6 2 17.8S 179.0E 315
+60hr 3 am January 7 2 19.7S 178.6E 405
+72hr 3 pm January 7 2 21.1S 177.1E 490

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa
The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 041701 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 175.7E AT
041200 UTC. POSITION GOOD POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WIITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP
TO 500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP YIEDS DT=2.0. PT
AND MT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 14.2S 176.7E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 14.9S 177.6E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.9S 178.4E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 17.2S 178.9E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MONA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
042000 UTC.

 

FIJI

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY TWO FOR FLOOD ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 07.30AM SATURDAY THE 5TH OF JANUARY, 2019.

FLOOD WARNING

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR;

ALL LOW LYING AREAS, SMALL STREAMS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO MAJOR RIVERS OF FIJI;
LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO DREKETILAILAI STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF LABASA RIVER.
FLOOD ALERT

A FLOOD ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR;

LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO SABATA STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAVUA TOWN;
LOW LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO NAVUA BRIDGE STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAVUA RIVER;
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS ADJACENT TO AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAQALI STATION;

LEVEL AT SABATA STATION WAS 5.52M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 1.52M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.

LEVEL AT NAVUA BRIDGE WAS 2.32M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 0.32M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.
LEVEL AT NAQALI STATION WAS 3.45M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 1.10M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.

SITUATION

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 6 EAST OR ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR
ABOUT 510KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4AM TODAY.MONA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH, TURN EASTWARDS AND THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP FROM MID MORNING.
TIDE HEIGHT TIME
LOW 0.52 12.04PM
HIGH 1.69M 07.14pM

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON FLOOD WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 10.30AM TODAY OR EARLIER.

Fiji and Rotuma

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA ISSUED FROM RSMC
NADI at 5.00am on Saturday the 5th of January 2019

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND THE WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU .

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LAND AREAS AND WATERS OF FIJI
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WHOLE OF FIJI.
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13 DECIMAL 7
SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 6 EAST OR ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR
ABOUT 510KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4AM TODAY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, THE 10
MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 95KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
130KM/HR. MONA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16KM/HR.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH, TURN EASTWARDS AND THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP FROM MID MORNING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 380 KM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 480KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4PM TODAY
AND ABOUT 280KM NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 350 KM NORTHWEST OF
LABASA AT 4AM TOMORROW.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55KM/HR AND GUSTS UP TO
70KM/HR. WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED
UP TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90KM/HR FROM TONIGHT. PERIODS OF
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
LIKELY.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55KM/HR AND GUSTS UP TO
70KM/HR. WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED UP
TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90KM/HR FROM TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE REST
OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND OVER REST OF THE PLACES FROM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS LIKELY.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FURTHER INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS OVER
YASAWA WATERS AND NORTHERN VANUA LEVU WATERS FROM TONIGHT. FOR THE REST
OF FIJI WATERS, WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS
FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC MONA WILL BE ISSUED AT 08.00AM
TODAY.

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF FIJI
MEDIA RELEASE No.16
1pm, Friday, 04 January 2019
TC MONA FURTHER INTESIFIES AND UPGRADES TO CATEGORY 2
Tropical cyclone Mona has continued to intensify and upgraded into a category 2 tropical cyclone at 10am today. TC Mona remains to the northwest of the Group and has gradually picked up speed in the las 24 hours.
The cyclone is expected to move towards the south-southwest till this evening, turn and move east-southeast towards the Fiji Group from tonight.
TC Mona centre was located near 14.7 degrees’ south latitude and 177.2 east longitude or about 230km north of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 300km northwest of Labasa at 10am today.TC Mona is moving south-southwest at about 15km/hr.
On the forecast track, the centre is expected to be located about 180km north-northwest of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 290km north-northwest of Nadi at 10pm today and about 130km north of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 250km north of Nadi at 10am tomorrow.
Given that the tropical cyclones have behaved erratically, when encountering land masses in the past, the possibility of TC Mona making a landfall over Vanua Levu on Monday morning remains a possibility at this stage and its movement will be closely monitored.
The outer active rain bands from TC Mona have started affecting the northern and eastern parts of the country. As the system moves closer to Fiji, rain will become heavy and frequent. Effects of strong winds are also expected from today and increasing to damaging gale force winds later tomorrow.
Depending on the closeness of the system to pass land areas, gale force winds can be expected especially over the Yasawa and Mamanuca Group, Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands. Damaging winds are likely to begin several hours before the cyclone centre passes overhead or nearby.
The effects of wind can cause damages to well-built framed homes which can blow away roofs, trees uprooted and branches being broken, severely damage weak structures, totally destroy shallow rooted crops, cause loose objects to fly, damage electricity lines and poles, damage water infrastructure, etc.
For Fiji Waters, mariners can expect northeast to southeast winds 20 to 30 knots, gusting to 45
knots and moderate southerly swells. Poor visibility in areas of rain and thunderstorms. Winds may
further increase to 35 to 40 knots with high seas over Vanua Levu Waters and Yasawa Waters from
later tomorrow.
Meanwhile, an active trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain lies slow moving just
north of Vanua Levu and affects the northern part of the Group.
A Special Weather Bulletin for Tropical Cyclone Alert is current to allow communities to prepare
for the worst case scenario should the system directly affect the Group. The following alerts and
warnings remain in force:
A “Gale Warning” is now in force for Yasawa and Mamanuca Group
A “Tropical Cyclone Alert” remains in force for Yasawa Group, Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby
smaller islands and is now in force for the rest of Fiji
A “Strong Wind Warning” remains in force for Kadavu and nearby smaller islands, Yasawa Group
and northern Viti Levu from Rakiraki to Tailevu North
A “Strong Wind Warning” remains in force for all Fiji Waters
A “Heavy Rain Warning” remains in force for Yasawa Group and Mamanuca Group, Vanua Levu,
Taveuni and nearby smaller islands, the eastern half of Viti Levu, Lau and Lomaiviti group
A “Heavy Rain Alert” is now in force for the rest of Fiji
A “Flood Warning” remains in force for all low lying areas, small streams and areas adjacent to
major rivers of Vanua Levu.
With rivers being at medium to high flows, soil already saturated and more rain predicted, the
chances of flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is high. Sea flooding of low-lying coastal
areas and damaging heavy swells is also anticipated. The Northern, and Eastern coastlines are at
high risk of inundation by combined effect of wind stress, heavy swells, storm surge and high tide.
All communities living in low coastal, flood prone and low lying areas are reminded to remain
alert and take all necessary precautions, similarly for those living in landslide prone areas.
Members of the public are advised to remain updated with the latest weather information and take
alerts and warnings seriously.
For more details and the latest on weather, please contact the National Weather Forecasting Centre
on 6736006, 9905376 or visit the Fiji Meteorological Service’s website, http://www.met.gov.fj. You can
also visit the Fiji Meteorological Service official Facebook page for latest updates.
Alerts and warnings can be found at:
Special Weather Bulletin (Tropical Cyclone Alert):
http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20020.txt
Flood alert/warning: http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20016.txt\
Heavy rain alert/warning: http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20014.txt
VILIAME VEREIVALU
ACTING DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY
Figure 1: Weather Map at 10am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 2: Satellite image at 10am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 4: Tropical Cyclone Mona (CAT1), Threat Map at 8.51am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 5: Tropical Cyclone Mona (CAT1), Forecast Track Map at 8.42am today on 04 January
2019.
Figure 3: Radar image at 10.40am today on 04 January 2019.
STATION
24 HOUR RAINFALL
Udu Point
146mm
Saqani
110mm
Nabouwalu
104mm
Matei
61mm
Monasavu
58mm Table 1: Significant rainfall at selected sites from 9am yesterday to 9am this morning, 04 January 2019.
END.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Jan, 2019 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MONA is currently located near 14.8 S 177.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). MONA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

dr mona.jpg

(Image: @RoshinRowjee ) 3 Jan 2019

MARITIME/SHIPPING

South West Pacific Marine

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Jan 040800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 050600 UTC. STORM WARNING 033 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 040752 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9 SOUTH 176.4 EAST AT 040600 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 14.9S 176.4E at 040600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 041800 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.2S 176.7E AT 041800 UTC AND NEAR 15.3S 177.2E AT 050600 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 030. *********************************************************************

*** GALE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 040649 UTC. THE AREA BOUNDED BY 09S 176E 09S 174E 10S 172E 09S 171E 09S 173E 09S 176E EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 031. *********************************************************************

***** TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9 SOUTH 176.4 EAST AT 040600 UTC. POSITION POOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 EQT 175E 05S 178E 14S 180 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 EQT 178W 08S 176W 15S 177W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. TROUGH T1 07S 160E 06S 165E 09S 172E 13S 176E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 16S 178W 21S 165W 25S 151W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 20S 149W 25S 149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. OUTSIDE STORM WARNING AREA 033 AND IN THE AREA BETWEEN SOUTH OF T1 AND WEST OF 175W, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 032 AND IN THE AREA WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ, EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS. IN THE AREA NORTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175W AND 140W, EXPECT MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175W AND 145W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Thailand/ Myanmar/ Malaysia: Tropical Storm PABUK 36W 04/0900Z 8.3N 100.7E, moving W 20kt (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 1300Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm PABUK 36W

Thailand and Myanmar beware!

Malaysia be aware!

1901-00-1

 

TS 1901 (Pabuk)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 4 January 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 4 January>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N8°20′ (8.3°)
E100°40′ (100.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N8°40′ (8.7°)
E99°10′ (99.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°05′ (9.1°)
E97°35′ (97.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°50′ (10.8°)
E94°20′ (94.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 7 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°00′ (13.0°)
E90°40′ (90.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

THAILAND

Weather Warning
“Tropical Storm “PABUK””
No. 19 Time Issued : January 4, 2019

At 17.00 p.m. on 4 January 2019, tropical storm “PABUK” over A.Chang Klang, Nakhon Si thammarat or at latitude 8.4 degree north, longitude 99.7 degree east has maximum sustained wind is 65 km/hr. The storm is moving west at a speed of 13 km/hr. It is expected to move to Surat Thani. This will affect the South with widespread rainfalls, and torrential downpours are possible much of the area. People should beware of the severe conditions that cause forest runoffs and flash floods especially over tonight. Affected areas are as followings:

4 January: Torrential downpours and gusty winds much of provinces: Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

5 January: Torrential downpours and gusty wind much of provinces: Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

The strong winds are forecast with waves up to 3-5 meters high in the Gulf and 2-3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. All ships keep ashore lasting 5 January 2019. People in the Gulf should be aware of inshore surges.

The advisory is in effect on 4 January 2019 at 05.45 p.m.

 

(Signed) Phuwieng Prakhammintara

(Mr. Phuwieng Prakhammintara)

Director-General

Thai Meteorological Department

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

(4.1.2019): Weather is a few cloud over the Bay of Bengal and partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea.

Cyclone Warning
Friday, January 4, 2019 – 06:30
No Cyclone Warning

JABATAN METEOROLOGI MALAYSIA
KEMENTERIAN TENAGA, SAINS, TEKNOLOGI, ALAM SEKITAR & PERUBAHAN IKLIM
Jalan Sultan,
46667 Petaling Jaya,
Selangor Darul Ehsan,
Malaysia
Tel:
+603-79678000
Faks:
+603-79578052
Emel:
pcn@met.gov.my

JMM/POCGN(O)/BK-08
Ruj.Kami: JMM.RML06/599/46/JLD.49(26)
Nasihat Ribut Tropika
Dikeluarkan pada 5:45 petang 04 Januari 2019
Kategori: Nasihat Ribut Tropika (PABUK)
Masa Pencerapan: 17:00, 04 Januari 2019
Kedudukan: Latitud 8.3 Utara dan Longitud 100.7 Timur
kira-kira 146 km ke Timur Laut Hat Yai, Thailand.
Pergerakan: Ke arah Barat dengan kelajuan 15 km/j
Jarak dari Bandar terdekat: Kira-kira 216 km ke Timur Laut Arau, Perlis.
Kesan terhadap Malaysia: Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan angin kencang dan laut bergelora di perairan Kelantan dan Selat Melaka Utara.
Dikeluarkan oleh: Pusat Operasi Cuaca & Geofizik Nasional
Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
Kementerian Tenaga, Sains, Teknologi, Alam Sekitar & Perubahan Iklim
JABATAN METEOROLOGI MALAYSIA
KEMENTERIAN TENAGA, SAINS, TEKNOLOGI, ALAM SEKITAR & PERUBAHAN IKLIM
Jalan Sultan,
46667 Petaling Jaya,
Selangor Darul Ehsan,
Malaysia
Tel:
+603-79678000
Faks:
+603-79578052
Emel:
pcn@met.gov.my

JMM/POCGN(O)/BK-08
Our Ref.: JMM.RML06/599/46/JLD.49(26)
Tropical Storm Advisory
Issued at 5:45PM 4 January 2019
Category: Tropical Storm Advisory (PABUK)
Time of Observation: 17:00, 04 January 2019
Location: Latitude 8.3 North and Longitude 100.7 East
approximately 146 km Northeast of Hat Yai, Thailand.
Movement: West 15 km/h
Distance from nearest town: Approximately 216 km Northeast of Arau, Perlis.
Threat to Malaysia: This condition may cause strong winds and rough seas over waters off Kelantan and Northern Straits of Malacca.
Dikeluarkan oleh: Pusat Operasi Cuaca & Geofizik Nasional
Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
Kementerian Tenaga, Sains, Teknologi, Alam Sekitar & Perubahan Iklim

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2019 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PABUK is currently located near 7.2 N 103.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). PABUK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Surat Thani (9.1 N, 99.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Nakhon Si Thammarat (8.4 N, 100.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Chumphon (10.5 N, 99.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Ranong (10.0 N, 98.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Songkhla (7.2 N, 100.6 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Malaysia
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kota Baharu (6.1 N, 102.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
    Phuket (7.9 N, 98.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP27 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 46N 172E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING NE 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW WITHIN NEXT 6
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 50N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 54N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 52N 165E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1020 HPA
AT 41N 132E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 31N 134E ESE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 159E TO 30N 169E 33N 172E 35N 180E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1901 PABUK (1901) 996 HPA AT 08.4N 101.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

THAILAND

Shipping Weather Forecast

Synoptic Situation at January 4, 2019 15:00 LST
At 6.00 p.m. 4 January, Tropical storm “PABUK” over A.Chang Klang Nakhon Si thammarat or located at latitude 8.4 N, longitude 99.7 E. With its maximum sustained winds of 35 knots or 65 km/hr, the storm was moving west-northwest at a speed of 7 knots or 13 km/hr. It expected to move to Surat Thani next time. The strong northeast monsoon prevails across the Gulf with torrential downpours much of the South. The winds are intensifying with wave 3-5 meters high and 2-3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. All ships in the Gulf do not venture out off the sea lasting 5 January.
24-Hour Weather Forecast for Shipping
From January 4, 2019 17:00 – January 5, 2019 17:00 น.
Both sides of Thai gulf Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated torrential rains much of the areas. Northeasterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Andaman sea Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated torrential rains. Northwesterly winds 11-22 knots or 20-40 km/hr. Wave height 2-3 meters and above 3 meters offshore.
Kotabaru to Singapore Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rains. Northwesterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Indochina Very cloudy with scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rains. Northeasterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Issued Date January 4, 2019 17:00

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

BAY BULLETIN
ISSUED ON  4 – 1 – 2019 at 19:00hrs M.S.T

BALLOON   :

PART ONE :  No Storm.

PART TWO   :

SPECIAL FEATURE: According to the observations at (18:30) hrs MST today, the tropical depression (Pabuk) over the Gulf of Thailand and continuously crossed near Chaung Kiang (Thailand). IT is forecast to move westwards and reach to Andaman sea .
FORECAST FOR AREAS BETWEEN LAT. 10.5°N – 16.5°N AND LONG. 92°E
WEATHER    :        Fairlywidespread rain (or)  Thundershower.
VISIBILITY    :        (4) nautical  miles but (1) Nautical mile  in rain.
SURFACE WIND :   North (or ) NorthEast(15-20)kts at times (35) kts
SEAS    :               Rough
WAVE HEIGHT  :    (8-10)Feet

FORECAST FOR AREAS BETWEEN LAT. 16.5°N – 20.5°N AND LONG. 92°E
WEATHER    :      Partly cloudy
VISIBILITY    :      (5) nautical miles but (1) nautical mile in rain.
SURFACE WIND :  North (or ) NorthEast(10-15)kts at times (30) kts
SEAS    :               Moderate
WAVE HEIGHT  :    (4-6)

HOIST            : Signal, LC III, Section (VI)
ADD        :
REPLACE     (MLM, DWE, KONG, COI, YGN, PTH)

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Papua New Guinea/ Australia: Tropical Cyclone PENNY 08P 02/2100Z position near 13.9S 151.0E, moving E 24kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 Jan 2019 2126Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone PENNY 08P

Penny lies over the Coral Sea and is moving away from the Queensland east coast

Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in
intensity as an Australian category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on
Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 18 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Penny) Warning #12
Issued at 02/2100Z

sh0819

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021800Z — NEAR 13.6S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 100 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 150.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 14.7S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 15.4S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 16.0S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 16.4S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 17.1S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 18.0S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 19.5S 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
POSITIONED JUST EAST. A 021723Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MICROWAVE STRUCTURE AND A 021200Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 50
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS. TC 08P WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08P WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-29
CELSIUS) SST SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE. DYNAMIC MODEL
VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND TRACK
SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Penny

Issued at 4:57 am AEST Thursday 3 January 2019. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Penny lies over the Coral Sea and is moving away from the Queensland east coast.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Penny at 4:00 am AEST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.3 degrees South, 149.3 degrees East , 340 kilometres north northwest of Willis Island and 505 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown .
Movement: east at 31 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Penny lies in the northwest Coral Sea and is tracking in an eastwards direction away from the east Queensland coast. Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in intensity as a category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening.

Hazards:

No direct impacts from the system are expected across Queensland in the short-term.

Recommended Action:

Nil.

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 am January 3 1 13.3S 149.3E 55
+6hr 10 am January 3 1 13.9S 151.2E 80
+12hr 4 pm January 3 2 14.4S 152.9E 100
+18hr 10 pm January 3 2 14.8S 154.0E 125
+24hr 4 am January 4 2 15.1S 154.5E 145
+36hr 4 pm January 4 2 15.7S 155.1E 185
+48hr 4 am January 5 1 16.0S 154.9E 220
+60hr 4 pm January 5 tropical low 16.3S 154.4E 255
+72hr 4 am January 6 tropical low 16.7S 153.5E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Thursday

 

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:59 am EST on Thursday 3 January 2019
At 4 am AEST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Penny with central pressure 992 hPa was
located over the northwest Coral Sea near latitude 13.3 south longitude 149.3
east, which is about 340 km north northwest of Willis Island and 505 km east
northeast of Cooktown.

Tropical Cyclone Penny is tracking in an eastwards direction away from the east
Queensland coast. Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in
intensity as a category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on
Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening.

No direct impacts from the system are expected across Queensland in the
short-term.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am AEST Thursday.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Jan, 2019 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PENNY is currently located near 13.6 S 150.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). PENNY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Papua New Guinea
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alotau (10.3 S, 150.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1857UTC 2 JANUARY 2019

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Penny was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal three south (13.3S)
longitude one hundred and forty nine decimal three east (149.3E)
Recent movement : east at 17 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 1800 UTC 03
January.

Winds above 48 knots developing within 50 nautical miles by 0600 UTC 03 January.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 03 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.4 south 152.9 east.
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre
At 1800 UTC 03 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.1 south 154.5 east.
Central pressure 979 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre by 0100
UTC 03 January 2019.

WEATHER PERTH

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Philippines: LOW Former TD 35W (TD Usman in Philippines) 30/1400Z 8.3N 116.0E (PAGASA) – Updated 30 Dec 2018 1550Z (GMT/UTC)

LOW PRESSURE AREA 35W

(TD Usman in Philippines)

At 10:00 AM today ,  the  Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression “USMAN”)   was estimated, based on all available data, at 340 km West Southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  (8.3 °N, 116.0 °E).  – PAGASA

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

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PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Weather Advisory

Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression

At 10:00 AM today ,  the   Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression “USMAN”)   was estimated, based on all available data, at 340 km West Southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  (8.3 °N, 116.0 °E).  

This weather disturbance, along with the  Tail-End of a Cold Front , will continue to bring, in the next 24 hours , moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Bicol Region, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, and Northern Palawan incl. Calamian and Cuyo Groups of Islands. Meanwhile, light to moderate rains will prevail over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region(CAR) and the rest of Cagayan Valley Region, of CALABARZON, of Central Luzon and of Palawan.   Residents of these areas, especially those living near river channels and in low-lying and mountainous areas, are advised to take appropriate measures, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates.   Due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.   Sea travel remains risky over the seaboards of Luzon, and the eastern seaboard of Visayas. The public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates to be  incorporated in the public weather forecast at 4:00 PM today and 4:00 AM tomorrow. The next weather advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Depression 35W (Thirtyfive) Warning #23 Final Warning
Issued at 30/0300Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300000Z — NEAR 8.8N 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 119.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 8.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 8.1N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 119.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354
NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAGGED LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES INTO A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH ISOLATED, FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 292221Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS LIMITED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
SYSTEM IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAK
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 35W IS LOCATED WITHIN A
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT ADJACENT TO EXTENSIVE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 365NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA (INVEST 97W), THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR / NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
IT CROSSES PALAWAN ISLAND AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OUTER PERIPHERY
OF INVEST 97W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Gale Warning

Gale Warning # 10

Issued at: 5:00 PM today, 30 December 2018

Strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of northeast monsoon.

Strong to gale force winds is expected to affect the following areas.
Seaboard Weather Wind Force (kph/knots) Sea Condition Wave Height (meters)
The seaboards of northern and central luzon (Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, And Aurora) Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains (45 – 80) / (24 – 43) Rough to high 2.8 to 7.0
The western seaboard of southern luzon (Northern Palawan And Occidental Mindoro) Mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms (45 – 68) / (24 – 36) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 5.0
The eastern seaboard of southern luzon (Eastern Coast Of Quezon Including Polillo Island, Camarines Norte, Northern And Eastern Coasts Of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Eastern Coast Of Albay, And Eastern Coast Of Sorsogon) Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains (45 – 68) / (24 – 36) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 5.0
The eastern seaboard of visayas (Northern Samar And Eastern Samar) Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms (45 – 63) / (24 – 34) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 4.5

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves.

The next update will be issued at 5:00 am tomorrow.

Area Synopsis and 24-Hour Shipping Forecast

RPMM 300600
AREA SYNOPSIS AND 24-HOUR SHIPPING FORECAST
BEGINNING 301200
December 2018
Synopsis

SYNOPSIS: STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON PREVAILING OVER THE SHIPPING AREAS NORTH OF ONE EIGHT NORTH X SCARBOROUGH X MINDORO X CENTRAL PHILIPPINE AREA NORTH OF ONE TWO NORTH BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES TO EASTERLIES OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA PD

Shipping Zones Weather Condition Wind direction and Speed Wave Height
(meters)
Sea Condition
Bashi CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Balintang CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Scarborough CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Central Philippine AREA NORTH OF ONE FIVE NORTH CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
MINDORO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
EAST TAIWAN CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
RYUKYU CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
NORTH PHILIPPINE CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
REST OF CENTRAL PHILIPPINE Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
INLAND AREA NORTH OF ONE THREE NORTH Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM12 UP TO 15 MPS (24 – 30 KT) 2.8 – 3.7 Rough
SULU AREA NORTH OF ONE ZERO NORTH Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 15 MPS (24 – 30 KT) 2.8 – 3.7 Rough
South Philippine Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 14 MPS (16 – 28 KT) 1.2 – 3.4 Moderate to Rough
PALAWAN MOSTLY cloudy skies with SCATTERED rains and thunderstorms EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
REST OF INLAND Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
REST OF SULU Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
MINDANAO Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 11 MPS (16 – 22 KT) 1.2 – 2.5 Moderate to occasionally Rough
MORO Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 4 UP TO 10 MPS (8 – 20 KT) 0.6 – 2.1 SLIGHT TO MODERATE

WWJP27 RJTD 301200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 301200.
WARNING VALID 311200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 950 HPA
AT 51N 176E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 18 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 984 HPA
AT 42N 157E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 29N 122E 19N 123E 14N 116E 08N 110E
07N 107E 10N 107E 13N 109E 16N 108E 22N 112E 24N 118E 29N 122E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 114E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 172E TO 29N 176E 31N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mauritius/ Rodrigues/ La Reunion: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA 07S 21/1200Z 15.2S 57.7E, moving S 06ky 950hpa (RSMC LaReunion) – Published 21 Dec 2018 1417Z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA 07S

CILIDA is a now category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to intensify further to a category 5 storm on same scale by 22 Dec, 0:00

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Latest position see Maritime/Shipping section below

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cilida) Warning #10
Issued at 21/0900Z

sh0719

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 14.6S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 58.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 15.6S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 17.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 18.9S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 20.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 24.7S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z — 29.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 65 KNOTS AT 20/06Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED 15NM EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION DUE TO
LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 210522Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING WITH AN OBLONG EYEWALL SURROUNDING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5/6.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES AS WELL AS A RECENT CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 109 KNOTS. TC 07S
IS WOBBLING SLIGHTLY AS IT SLOWLY TURNS POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 155NM AT TAU 72
AND 220NM AT TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, TC CILIDA WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24-26C). THE SYSTEM
SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

SWI05_20182019

 

Bulletin du 21 décembre à 10H29 locales Réunion:
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CILIDA.
Pression estimée au centre: 955 HPA.
Position le 21 décembre à 10 heures locales Réunion: 14.6 Sud / 58.0 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 745 km au secteur: NORD-NORD-EST.
Distance de Mayotte : 1390 km au secteur: EST.
Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 9 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le “Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique” (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

Bulletin of December 21 at 10:29 La Reunion:
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CILIDA.
Estimated pressure in the center: 955 HPA.
Position December 21 at 10 am local Meeting: 14.6 South / 58.0 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 745 km to the sector: NORD-NORD-EST.
Distance from Mayotte: 1390 km to the area: EST.
Travel: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 9 km / h.
This newsletter is now complete.
Consult the “Cyclonic Activity Bulletin” (see link below)
to get the forecasts on this system.

http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours/dirre/CILIDA

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Dec, 2018 6:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA is currently located near 14.6 S 58.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). CILIDA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. CILIDA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mauritius
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds (US hurricane scale)

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 211215
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 00 UTC:
16.4 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

India/ Bay Of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm Phethai 08B 15/1500Z position nr 10.8N 84.9E, moving NNW 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Dec 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Phethai/ Tropical Cyclone 08B

DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS – RSMC New Delhi

INDIA: Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 08B (Eight) Warning #02
Issued at 15/1500Z

io0818

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 10.4N 85.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 85.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 11.9N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 13.4N 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 15.1N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 16.6N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 19.1N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 151251Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A 150326Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF
BENGAL. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER INDIA. DUE TO TC 08B’S BROAD STRUCTURE AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 08B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING
VWS (30-50 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, COOLER SST (25-26C),
DRIER AIR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TC 08B WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72 AS IT
BEGINS TO RECURVE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

INDIA

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 1
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 1 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 15.12.2018 BASED ON 1200 UTC
OF 15.12.2018.
DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL:
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI (PRONOUNCED AS PAY-TI)’
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 15TH DECEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.3°N AND LONGITUDE 84.9°E, ABOUT 440 KM EASTNORTHEAST
OF TRINCOMALEE (43418) (SRI LANKA), 590 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI (43278) (TAMIL NADU) AND 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MACHILIPATNAM
(43185) (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS
AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN
MACHILIPATNAM AND KAKINADA DURING 17TH DECEMBER AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat.°N/ long.°E)
Maximum sustained
surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
15.12.18/1200 10.3/84.9 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
15.12.18/1800 11.0/84.4 65-75 gusting to 85 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/0000 11.8/83.7 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/0600 12.4/83.2 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/1200 13.3/82.7 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/0000 15.0/82.1 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/1200 16.4/82.1 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/0000 17.5/82.6 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/1200 18.3/83.4 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1200 UTC ON 15TH DECEMBER THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM OVER SW BAY & N/HOOD IS T 2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER AREA
BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.5°N TO 15.0°N AND LONG 82.0°E TO 92.0°E (.) MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93.1° C.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA
IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4 WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH AMPLITUDE
GREATER THAN 1 FOR NEXT 4-5 DAYS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION & INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) IS 28-29˚C AROUND THE SYSTEM AREA. IT IS DECREASING SLIGHTLY BECOMING
26-28˚C TOWARDS WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ALONG & OFF ANDHRA
PRADESH COAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2
OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF BOB ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 60×10-
5 SECOND-1 TOWARDS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. LOWER LEVEL
VORTICITY IS 200×10-6 SECOND 1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS 20×10-5 SECOND-1 TOWARDS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND
INCREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES WARM AND MOIST AIR FEEDING INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM FROM
SOUTHEAST SECTOR AND DRY & COLD AIR PREVAILS OVER PENINSULAR INDIA. ALL
THESE MAY LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 16°N. THE SYSTEM IS BEING GUIDED
BY THE ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA, AND HENCE WILL HAVE MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. AS PER THE
MODEL FORECAST A DEEP TROUGH IN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES IS
APPROACHING THE INDIAN REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO RECURVATURE OF THE
SYSTEM TO NORTHEAST AFTER LANDFALL OVER ANDHRA PRADESH COAST. FURTHER
UNDER THE COMBIND EFFECT OF ANTICYCLONE AND ABOVE TROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. IT MAY
LEAD TO INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION. HENCE THERE IS POSSIBILITIES
OF WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY ON 17TH DECEMBER BEFORE LANDFALL DUE
TO DRY & COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHWEST AND COLDER SST & LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND HIGH WIND SHEAR. LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND SUGGEST
WIND SPEED OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS ARE HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. MOST OF
THE NWP MODEL GUIDENCE AGREE WITH ABOVE ANALYSIS.
(V.R. DURAI)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Dec, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EIGHT is currently located near 10.4 N 85.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). EIGHT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Kavali (14.9 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151609

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1500 UTC 15 DECEMBER 2018.

PART:-I STORM WARNING.

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 09 KNOTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM PHETHAI (PRONOUNCED
AS PAY-TI) AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 15 TH DECEMBER, 2018 OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.9
DEG E, ABOUT 440 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA), 590 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU) AND 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MACHILIPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
BETWEEN MACHILIPATNAM AND KAKINADA DURING 0900 UTC TO 1200 UTC OF
17 TH DECEMBER (.)

PART:-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E :N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 72 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E TO 72 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E :NE/N-LY 15/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 1 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N :NE/E-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:NE/N-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 16 DEG N TO 70 DEG E AND NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF16 DEG N (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E NE-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 20 DEG N :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N :NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E TO 72 DEG E :NE-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 62 DEG E (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 72 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
4)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E :NE/N-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 66 DEG E 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA :0.5-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N: CYCLONIC 40/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: W/NW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-4.5-9.0 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N E-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS TO THE W OF 87 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N NW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2.5-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 15 DEG N CYCLONIC 40/54 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 93 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG TO W OF 93 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 15 DEG N :5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2.5-5.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 17 DEG N : N/NE-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
1)S OF 17 DEG N :CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 18 DEG N :5.0-10.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 3.5-5.0 MTR (.)

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P 13/0600Z 15.1S 136.1E, slow moving. Max Wind 75kt. 961hPa (BoM) – Updated 13 Dec 2018 1000Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P

Australian Category 3 intensity = Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Severe TC Owen may reach Australian Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..– BoM

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP NT

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Issued at 4:53 pm ACST Thursday 13 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 24.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:
– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.
– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.
– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.
– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.
– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using
available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm December 13 3 15.1S 136.1E 35
+6hr 10 pm December 13 3 15.0S 136.5E 60
+12hr 4 am December 14 4 14.8S 137.2E 80
+18hr 10 am December 14 4 14.8S 138.1E 105
+24hr 4 pm December 14 4 15.0S 139.3E 130
+36hr 4 am December 15 3 15.8S 141.7E 165
+48hr 4 pm December 15 tropical low 17.2S 143.9E 200
+60hr 4 am December 16 tropical low 18.7S 145.7E 235
+72hr 4 pm December 16 tropical low 20.1S 147.5E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 pm ACST Thursday

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Issued at 5:28 pm AEST Thursday 13 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 24.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 4:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:
– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.
– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.
– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.
– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.
– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using
available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm December 13 3 15.1S 136.1E 35
+6hr 10 pm December 13 3 15.0S 136.5E 60
+12hr 4 am December 14 4 14.8S 137.2E 80
+18hr 10 am December 14 4 14.8S 138.1E 105
+24hr 4 pm December 14 4 15.0S 139.3E 130
+36hr 4 am December 15 3 15.8S 141.7E 165
+48hr 4 pm December 15 tropical low 17.2S 143.9E 200
+60hr 4 am December 16 tropical low 18.7S 145.7E 235
+72hr 4 pm December 16 tropical low 20.1S 147.5E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:30 pm AEST Thursday

 

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Port Roper and Port McArthur, including Port McArthur are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 4:52 pm ACST [5:22 pm AEST] on Thursday 13 December 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw.

Watch Zone
Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen.

Cancelled Zone
None

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST [4:00 pm AEST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South 136.1 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur.

Movement: slow moving.

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

 

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

 

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

 

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

 

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

 

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:

– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.

– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.

– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.

– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.

– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

 

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

 

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using

available daylight hours/before nightfall].

 

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

 

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm ACST Thursday 13 December [8:30 pm AEST Thursday 13 December].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2018 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Cyclone OWEN is currently located near 15.1 S 136.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). OWEN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OWEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alyangula (13.9 S, 136.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Numbulwar (14.5 S, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Borroloola (16.1 S, 136.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Edward River (15.0 S, 141.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (Hurricane) or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:15S136E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, PERTH
Issued at 0724UTC 13 DECEMBER 2018

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal one south (15.1S)
longitude one hundred and thirty six decimal one east (136.1E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 75 knots
Central pressure: 961 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre increasing to 95 knots by 0000 UTC 14
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 13 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.8 south 137.2 east
Central pressure 949 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 14 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.0 south 139.3 east
Central pressure 946 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1330 UTC 13 December 2018.

PERTH Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Vietnam/ Cambodia/ Thailand: Severe Tropical Storm USAGI 33W 24/1500Z near 9.6N 108.1E, moving W Slow 985hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 24 Nov 2018 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm USAGI 33W

VIETNAM BEWARE!

Usagi expected to make landfall over Hochimin, Vietnam from 25-27 November

Cambodia and Thailand be aware!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET JTWC

1829-001

 

STS 1829 (Usagi)
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 24 November 2018

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 24 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N9°35′ (9.6°)
E108°05′ (108.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°55′ (9.9°)
E107°10′ (107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°30′ (10.5°)
E106°30′ (106.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°35′ (11.6°)
E105°30′ (105.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1010 hPa
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

VIETNAM NCHMF

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Saturday, November 24, 2018 9.9 108 TS 76 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

04 Sunday, November 25, 2018 10.1 107.3 TS 76 km/hour
10 Sunday, November 25, 2018 10.5 106.4 46 TD km/hour
22 Sunday, November 25, 2018 11.3 104.5 Low 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 02:30 AM Sunday, November 25, 2018
Satellite Imagery

xxxxx

Thai Meteorological Department

Weather Warning
“Tropical Storm “Usagi””
No. 9 Time Issued : November 24, 2018

At 10.00 p.m. on 24 November, typhoon USAGI due 170 km Southeast of Hochimin, Vietnam, or latitude 9.7 N, longitude 107.8 E, downgrade to tropical storm with the maximum sustained winds of 110 km/hr. Moving west at a speed about 15 km/hr, it is forecast to make landfall over Hochimin, Vietnam from 25-27 November and decline, respectively. All travelers stay tuned for the weather updated.

The advisory is in effect on 24 November 2018 at 11.00 p.m.

The next issue will be on 25 November 2018 at 5.00 a.m.

 

(Signed) Phuwieng Prakhammintara

(Mr. Phuwieng Prakhammintara)

Deputy Director-General

Acting Director-General

Thai Meteorological Department

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT

Typhoon USAGI is currently located near 9.7 N 108.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). USAGI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. USAGI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Can Tho (10.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 33W (Usagi) Warning #26
Issued at 24/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 9.7N 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 108.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 10.2N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 10.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 11.0N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 11.2N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 108.0E.
TYPHOON 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO
CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

xxxx

Other

DocR U24
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP27 RJTD 241200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS FOR NEXT 18 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 155E 48N 155E 48N 180E 32N 180E
36N 165E 41N 155E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 6 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 49N 165E 55N 164E 60N 170E 60N 180E
48N 180E 49N 165E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1020 HPA AT 39N 131E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 57N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 32N 132E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 39N 143E EAST 15 KT.
COLD FRONT FROM 31N 180E TO 30N 177E 29N 174E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 174E TO 29N 170E 28N 160E 27N 153E 22N
144E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1828 MAN-YI (1828) 955 HPA AT 18.6N 136.3E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1829 USAGI (1829) 985 HPA AT 09.7N 108.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Thailand Shipping Weather Forecast

Synoptic Situation at November 24, 2018 21:00 LST
At 7.00 p.m. on 24 November, Typhoon USAGI centered at latitude 9.7 ° N and longitude 108.0 °E has downgraded to tropical storm the maximum sustained winds of 60 knots or 110 km/hr. The storm is moving west with a speed of 7 knots or 15 km/hr. It is forecast to make landfall over southern Vietnam from 25-27 November and decline. The northeasterly monsoon across the Gulf bring about isolated rain over the South.
24-Hour Weather Forecast for Shipping
From November 24, 2018 23:00 – November 25, 2018 23:00 น.
Both sides of Thai gulf
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-18 knots or 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters and above 2 meters in thundershower areas.
Andaman sea
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-16 knots or 15-30 km/hr. Wave height about 1 meter and 1-2 meters in thundershower areas.
Kotabaru to Singapore
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-16 knots or 15-30 km/hr. Wave height about 1 meter.
Indochina
Cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 11-24 knots or 20-45 km/hr. Wave height 2-4 meters and above 4 meters in thundershower areas.
Issued Date November 24, 2018 23:00

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Minami Daito Jima/ Okinawa/ Amami Ōshima/ Japan: Typhoon MANYI 34W 23/1800Z near 17.1N 135.1E, moving N 09kt 955hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 23 Nov 2018 2018Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON MAN-YI 34W

Minami Daito Jima, Okinawa, Amami Ōshima and Japan mainland be aware!

Man-Yi is a storm equivalent to a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 231200Z IS 23 FEET – JTWC

1828-001

TY 1828 (Man-yi)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 23 November 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 23 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N17°05′ (17.1°)
E135°05′ (135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 520 km (280 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 24 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°00′ (18.0°)
E135°10′ (135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 24 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°05′ (18.1°)
E135°00′ (135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N19°00′ (19.0°)
E131°55′ (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°40′ (21.7°)
E131°00′ (131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 34W (Man-yi) Warning #16
Issued at 23/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 16.6N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 135.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 17.9N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 18.5N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 18.9N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 19.5N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 21.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 24.0N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 26.7N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 135.3E.
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 729 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NWS GUAM

 

 

 

257
WTPQ31 PGUM 231531
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Man-yi (34W) Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP342018
200 AM ChST Sat Nov 24 2018

…TYPHOON MAN-YI BEGINS TO WEAKEN…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
Location…16.9N 135.3E

About 545 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 565 miles north-northwest of Ulithi
About 675 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 705 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds…100 mph
Present movement…northwest…335 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located
near Latitude 16.9 degrees North and Longitude 135.3 degrees East.
Man-yi is moving northwest at 15 mph. It is expected to turn north
tonight then back to the west-northwest Saturday afternoon, with a
decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 100 mph. Man-yi is
forecast to maintain this intensity today, then slowly weaken the
next few days.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 45 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 165
miles east of the center and up to 155 miles west of the center.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM this morning.

$$

Ziobro

Guam Alerts

Micronesian Alerts

xxxxxxxxx

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT (NOTE DATE)

Tropical Storm MAN-YI is currently located near 8.7 N 146.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). MAN-YI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DocR M22

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WWJP28 RJTD 231500
EMERGENCY WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 958 HPA
AT 45N 167E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 44N 175E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 43N 174W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 982 HPA AT 43N 160E
MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1828 MAN-YI (1828) 955 HPA AT 16.6N 134.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1829 USAGI (1829) 985 HPA AT 10.5N 110.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

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