Guam/ Northern Mariana Islands/ Micronesia/ West Pacific: Typhoon WUTIP 02W 21/1500Z 7.4N 148.3E, moving WNW ~6.95kt (NWS Guam) – Updated 21 Feb 2019 1625Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON WUTIP 02W

…TYPHOON WUTIP CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY…

Wutip is a storm equivalent to Category 2 on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to become a Category 3 on same scale by 23 Feb, 0:00

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Satawal in Yap State and
for Puluwat in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch remain in effect for
Faraulep in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for Ulul in Chuuk
State.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan in the Mariana Islands and Woleai in Yap State.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 35 FEET – JTWC

NWS GUAM

errortrack1-2

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 211507
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Wutip (02W) Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP022019
107 AM ChST Fri Feb 22 2019

…TYPHOON WUTIP CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Satawal in Yap State and
for Puluwat in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch remain in effect for
Faraulep in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for Ulul in Chuuk
State.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan in the Mariana Islands and Woleai in Yap State.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
Location…7.4N 148.3E

About 55 miles west-northwest of Puluwat
About 85 miles east of Satawal
About 125 miles southwest of Ulul
About 240 miles west of Chuuk
About 270 miles east-southeast of Faraulep
About 300 miles east of Woleai
About 480 miles south-southeast of Guam
About 510 miles south-southeast of Rota
About 555 miles south-southeast of Tinian
About 560 miles south-southeast of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds…100 mph
Present movement…west-northwest…295 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Wutip was
located near Latitude 7.4 degrees North and Longitude
148.3 degrees East. Wutip is moving west-northwest at 8 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with an
increase in forward speed over the next 24 hours. It is expected
to pass southwest of the Mariana Islands late Saturday night and
early Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100 mph. Wutip is
forecast to intensify through Saturday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
35 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 150 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Ziobro

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 211010
HLSPQ1

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON WUTIP (02W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
810 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…TYPHOON WUTIP CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFIES…

.NEW INFORMATION…
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS…EASTERN YAP STATE AND CHUUK STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS…
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE AND
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM…ROTA…TINIAN
AND SAIPAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION…
AT 7 PM CHST…THE CENTER OF TYPHOON WUTIP (02W) WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 7.2N…LONGITUDE 148.8E. THIS WAS ABOUT 510 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-NORTHWEST. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 85 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW…
TYPHOON WUTIP IS WEST OF CHUUK LAGOON THIS EVENING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT. THAT
WOULD TAKE IT ACROSS EASTERN YAP STATE AND THEN APPROACHING THE
MARIANA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE…
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-211815-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
810 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS ON THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA. CHECK YOUR TYPHOON SHUTTERS AND MAKE SURE THEY ARE IN
WORKABLE CONDITIONS. CLEAR DRAINAGE AND STORM DRAINS AROUND THE
HOUSE. AS TYPHOON WUTIP PASSES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM ON SATURDAY
EVENING…DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

&&

…WINDS…
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

…STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE…
COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET TONIGHT WILL START BUILDING HIGHER ON
FRIDAY…REACHING 10 TO 12…AND UP TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN AND FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$

…PULUWAT…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY IN STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES.
TYPHOON FORCE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING. ALL BOATS SHOULD
REMAIN SECURED.

…WIND INFORMATION…
TYPHOON FORCE EAST WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY DAY BREAK.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE 20 TO 30 FEET THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 16 TO 20 FEET BY MIDNIGHT…THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE FURTHER TO 10 TO
15 FEET ON FRIDAY. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS LIKELY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

$$

…ULUL…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY IN STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALL BOATS SHOULD REMAIN
SECURED.

…WIND INFORMATION…
DAMAGING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT DAMAGING LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN.

$$

…SATAWAL…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY
IN STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM SHORE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND
WILL INCREASE TO TYPHOON FORCE SOON. ALL BOATS SHOULD REMAIN SECURED.

…WIND INFORMATION…
DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO
TYPHOON FORCE OF 70 TO 90 MPH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FEET WILL BUILD TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY LATE FRIDAY. INUNDATION OF
2 TO 4 FEET IS LIKELY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN.

$$

…FARAULEP…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS
EVENING. LOCATE STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES AND STORE FOOD
AND WATER. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING…AND
DANGEROUS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALL
BOATS MUST RETURN TO SHORE BY THIS EVENING.

…WIND INFORMATION…
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING
DAMAGING LEVELS OF 40 TO 55 MPH BY FRIDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 90 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL STEADILY BUILD AND REACH 12 TO 15
FEET ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 20 FT FRIDAY EVENING. INUNDATION OF
1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

…WOLEAI…

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATE STURDY SHELTERS AWAY FROM THE SHORES
AND STORE FOOD AND WATER. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL BOATS SHOULD RETURN TO SHORE BY TONIGHT.

…WIND INFORMATION…
NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY REACH DAMAGING LEVELS OF 35 TO 45 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO WEST AND DECREASE ON SATURDAY.

…STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION…
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD TONIGHT…REACHING 12 TO 15
FEET FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

…OTHER STORM EFFECTS…
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

SIMPSON

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 02W (Wutip) Warning #10
Issued at 21/1500Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 7.1N 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1N 148.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 8.3N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 9.7N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 11.0N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 12.3N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 13.9N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 15.6N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 17.8N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 148.3E.
TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Feb, 2019 12:00 GMT

Typhoon WUTIP is currently located near 7.1 N 148.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). WUTIP is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. WUTIP is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP31 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1902 WUTIP (1902) 970 HPA
AT 07.2N 148.4E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 08.6N 146.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 10.2N 144.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

==========================================================================================================

000
WHGM70 PGUM 210548
MWWGUM

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
348 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST…

.FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS TYPHOON WUTIP APPROACHES THE
WATERS.

PMZ151>154-212000-
/O.CON.PGUM.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190227T0800Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
348 PM CHST THU FEB 21 2019

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY…
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT…

* WINDS…NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS TYPHOON
WUTIP PASSES SOUTH OF GUAM.

* WAVES/SEAS…SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL THEN BUILD AS TYPHOON WUTIP MOVES PAST SOUTH OF
GUAM. COMBINED SEAS COULD REACH 20 FEET OVER GUAM AND ROTA WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WAVE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS…SHOULD AVOID SAILING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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New Caledonia/ Vanuatu: Tropical Cyclone OMA 15P 171500Z position 16.5S 164.2E, moving S 05kt (JTWC) – Published 17 Feb 2019 1540Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone OMA 15P

New Caledonia and Vanuatu beware!

OMA expected to become a storm equivalent to Category 1 on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by 18 Feb, 12:00 UTC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 26 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 15P (Oma) Warning #23
Issued at 17/1500Z

sh1519

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 16.3S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 164.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 18.4S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 19.8S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 20.9S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 22.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 25.8S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 30.3S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC OMA HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED ITS EXPANSIVE
FEEDER BANDS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A
LARGE, RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC
IN THE 171034Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28
CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC OMA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS ECMWF THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

logoimage

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone OMA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 100 issued 1314 UTC Sunday 17 February 2019

65660

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone OMA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm February 17 2 16.1S 164.2E 185
+6hr 6 pm February 17 2 16.6S 164.1E 215
+12hr 12 am February 18 2 17.2S 163.9E 240
+18hr 6 am February 18 2 17.9S 163.7E 270
+24hr 12 pm February 18 2 18.5S 163.4E 295
+36hr 12 am February 19 2 19.8S 162.8E 355
+48hr 12 pm February 19 2 20.9S 162.4E 415
+60hr 12 am February 20 1 21.9S 162.0E 505
+72hr 12 pm February 20 1 22.9S 161.8E 590

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 171343 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 984HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 164.2E AT 171200 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OMA IN THE LAST 3-6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN
A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.
SYSTEM REMAIN SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS
DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, YIELDING T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 17.2S 163.9E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 18.5S 163.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 19.8S 162.8E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 20.9S 162.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 172000 UTC.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Feb, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm OMA is currently located near 16.1 S 164.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). OMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taktak (14.9 S, 166.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Luganville (15.5 S, 167.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E)
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Onetar (14.3 S, 167.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Vipaka (13.1 S, 166.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Noum’ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
    Foreas (13.9 S, 167.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% currently
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Other

DocR Oma

(Image: )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

STORM WARNING 100 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 171309 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 984HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1 SOUTH 164.2
EAST AT 171200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.1S 164.2E at 171200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
181200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.2S 163.9E AT 180000 UTC
AND NEAR 18.5S 163.4E AT 181200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 099.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Fiji/ Rotuma/ South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone MONA 03F 04/1500Z near 13.7S 175.6E, moving NNW ~16kt (RSMC Nadi) – Published 04 Jan 2019 2000Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone MONA 09P, 04F

Tropical cyclone Mona has continued to intensify and upgraded into a Fiji category 2 tropical cyclone at 10am local time today

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND THE WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU .

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LAND AREAS AND WATERS OF FIJI
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WHOLE OF FIJI.

 

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone MONA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 33 issued 1612 UTC Friday 4 January 2019

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone MONA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 pm January 4 2 13.7S 175.6E 85
+6hr 9 pm January 4 2 13.6S 175.8E 110
+12hr 3 am January 5 2 13.6S 176.0E 140
+18hr 9 am January 5 2 13.8S 176.5E 165
+24hr 3 pm January 5 2 14.3S 177.0E 195
+36hr 3 am January 6 2 15.7S 178.2E 255
+48hr 3 pm January 6 2 17.8S 179.0E 315
+60hr 3 am January 7 2 19.7S 178.6E 405
+72hr 3 pm January 7 2 21.1S 177.1E 490

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa
The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 041701 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 175.7E AT
041200 UTC. POSITION GOOD POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WIITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP
TO 500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP YIEDS DT=2.0. PT
AND MT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 14.2S 176.7E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 14.9S 177.6E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.9S 178.4E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 17.2S 178.9E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MONA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
042000 UTC.

 

FIJI

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY TWO FOR FLOOD ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 07.30AM SATURDAY THE 5TH OF JANUARY, 2019.

FLOOD WARNING

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR;

ALL LOW LYING AREAS, SMALL STREAMS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO MAJOR RIVERS OF FIJI;
LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO DREKETILAILAI STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF LABASA RIVER.
FLOOD ALERT

A FLOOD ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR;

LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO SABATA STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAVUA TOWN;
LOW LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO NAVUA BRIDGE STATION AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAVUA RIVER;
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS ADJACENT TO AND DOWNSTREAM OF NAQALI STATION;

LEVEL AT SABATA STATION WAS 5.52M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 1.52M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.

LEVEL AT NAVUA BRIDGE WAS 2.32M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 0.32M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.
LEVEL AT NAQALI STATION WAS 3.45M AT 07.00AM WHICH IS 1.10M ABOVE ALERT LEVEL AND INCREASING.

SITUATION

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 6 EAST OR ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR
ABOUT 510KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4AM TODAY.MONA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH, TURN EASTWARDS AND THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP FROM MID MORNING.
TIDE HEIGHT TIME
LOW 0.52 12.04PM
HIGH 1.69M 07.14pM

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON FLOOD WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 10.30AM TODAY OR EARLIER.

Fiji and Rotuma

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA ISSUED FROM RSMC
NADI at 5.00am on Saturday the 5th of January 2019

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND THE WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU .

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LAND AREAS AND WATERS OF FIJI
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WHOLE OF FIJI.
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13 DECIMAL 7
SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 6 EAST OR ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR
ABOUT 510KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4AM TODAY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, THE 10
MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 95KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
130KM/HR. MONA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16KM/HR.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH, TURN EASTWARDS AND THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FIJI GROUP FROM MID MORNING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 380 KM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 480KM NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 4PM TODAY
AND ABOUT 280KM NORTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 350 KM NORTHWEST OF
LABASA AT 4AM TOMORROW.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55KM/HR AND GUSTS UP TO
70KM/HR. WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED
UP TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90KM/HR FROM TONIGHT. PERIODS OF
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
LIKELY.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55KM/HR AND GUSTS UP TO
70KM/HR. WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED UP
TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90KM/HR FROM TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE REST
OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND OVER REST OF THE PLACES FROM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS LIKELY.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FURTHER INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS OVER
YASAWA WATERS AND NORTHERN VANUA LEVU WATERS FROM TONIGHT. FOR THE REST
OF FIJI WATERS, WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS
FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC MONA WILL BE ISSUED AT 08.00AM
TODAY.

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF FIJI
MEDIA RELEASE No.16
1pm, Friday, 04 January 2019
TC MONA FURTHER INTESIFIES AND UPGRADES TO CATEGORY 2
Tropical cyclone Mona has continued to intensify and upgraded into a category 2 tropical cyclone at 10am today. TC Mona remains to the northwest of the Group and has gradually picked up speed in the las 24 hours.
The cyclone is expected to move towards the south-southwest till this evening, turn and move east-southeast towards the Fiji Group from tonight.
TC Mona centre was located near 14.7 degrees’ south latitude and 177.2 east longitude or about 230km north of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 300km northwest of Labasa at 10am today.TC Mona is moving south-southwest at about 15km/hr.
On the forecast track, the centre is expected to be located about 180km north-northwest of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 290km north-northwest of Nadi at 10pm today and about 130km north of Yasawa-i-Rara or about 250km north of Nadi at 10am tomorrow.
Given that the tropical cyclones have behaved erratically, when encountering land masses in the past, the possibility of TC Mona making a landfall over Vanua Levu on Monday morning remains a possibility at this stage and its movement will be closely monitored.
The outer active rain bands from TC Mona have started affecting the northern and eastern parts of the country. As the system moves closer to Fiji, rain will become heavy and frequent. Effects of strong winds are also expected from today and increasing to damaging gale force winds later tomorrow.
Depending on the closeness of the system to pass land areas, gale force winds can be expected especially over the Yasawa and Mamanuca Group, Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands. Damaging winds are likely to begin several hours before the cyclone centre passes overhead or nearby.
The effects of wind can cause damages to well-built framed homes which can blow away roofs, trees uprooted and branches being broken, severely damage weak structures, totally destroy shallow rooted crops, cause loose objects to fly, damage electricity lines and poles, damage water infrastructure, etc.
For Fiji Waters, mariners can expect northeast to southeast winds 20 to 30 knots, gusting to 45
knots and moderate southerly swells. Poor visibility in areas of rain and thunderstorms. Winds may
further increase to 35 to 40 knots with high seas over Vanua Levu Waters and Yasawa Waters from
later tomorrow.
Meanwhile, an active trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain lies slow moving just
north of Vanua Levu and affects the northern part of the Group.
A Special Weather Bulletin for Tropical Cyclone Alert is current to allow communities to prepare
for the worst case scenario should the system directly affect the Group. The following alerts and
warnings remain in force:
A “Gale Warning” is now in force for Yasawa and Mamanuca Group
A “Tropical Cyclone Alert” remains in force for Yasawa Group, Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby
smaller islands and is now in force for the rest of Fiji
A “Strong Wind Warning” remains in force for Kadavu and nearby smaller islands, Yasawa Group
and northern Viti Levu from Rakiraki to Tailevu North
A “Strong Wind Warning” remains in force for all Fiji Waters
A “Heavy Rain Warning” remains in force for Yasawa Group and Mamanuca Group, Vanua Levu,
Taveuni and nearby smaller islands, the eastern half of Viti Levu, Lau and Lomaiviti group
A “Heavy Rain Alert” is now in force for the rest of Fiji
A “Flood Warning” remains in force for all low lying areas, small streams and areas adjacent to
major rivers of Vanua Levu.
With rivers being at medium to high flows, soil already saturated and more rain predicted, the
chances of flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is high. Sea flooding of low-lying coastal
areas and damaging heavy swells is also anticipated. The Northern, and Eastern coastlines are at
high risk of inundation by combined effect of wind stress, heavy swells, storm surge and high tide.
All communities living in low coastal, flood prone and low lying areas are reminded to remain
alert and take all necessary precautions, similarly for those living in landslide prone areas.
Members of the public are advised to remain updated with the latest weather information and take
alerts and warnings seriously.
For more details and the latest on weather, please contact the National Weather Forecasting Centre
on 6736006, 9905376 or visit the Fiji Meteorological Service’s website, http://www.met.gov.fj. You can
also visit the Fiji Meteorological Service official Facebook page for latest updates.
Alerts and warnings can be found at:
Special Weather Bulletin (Tropical Cyclone Alert):
http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20020.txt
Flood alert/warning: http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20016.txt\
Heavy rain alert/warning: http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20014.txt
VILIAME VEREIVALU
ACTING DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY
Figure 1: Weather Map at 10am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 2: Satellite image at 10am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 4: Tropical Cyclone Mona (CAT1), Threat Map at 8.51am today on 04 January 2019.
Figure 5: Tropical Cyclone Mona (CAT1), Forecast Track Map at 8.42am today on 04 January
2019.
Figure 3: Radar image at 10.40am today on 04 January 2019.
STATION
24 HOUR RAINFALL
Udu Point
146mm
Saqani
110mm
Nabouwalu
104mm
Matei
61mm
Monasavu
58mm Table 1: Significant rainfall at selected sites from 9am yesterday to 9am this morning, 04 January 2019.
END.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Jan, 2019 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MONA is currently located near 14.8 S 177.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). MONA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

dr mona.jpg

(Image: @RoshinRowjee ) 3 Jan 2019

MARITIME/SHIPPING

South West Pacific Marine

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Jan 040800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 050600 UTC. STORM WARNING 033 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 040752 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9 SOUTH 176.4 EAST AT 040600 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 14.9S 176.4E at 040600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 041800 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.2S 176.7E AT 041800 UTC AND NEAR 15.3S 177.2E AT 050600 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 030. *********************************************************************

*** GALE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 040649 UTC. THE AREA BOUNDED BY 09S 176E 09S 174E 10S 172E 09S 171E 09S 173E 09S 176E EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 031. *********************************************************************

***** TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9 SOUTH 176.4 EAST AT 040600 UTC. POSITION POOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 EQT 175E 05S 178E 14S 180 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 EQT 178W 08S 176W 15S 177W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. TROUGH T1 07S 160E 06S 165E 09S 172E 13S 176E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 16S 178W 21S 165W 25S 151W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 20S 149W 25S 149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. OUTSIDE STORM WARNING AREA 033 AND IN THE AREA BETWEEN SOUTH OF T1 AND WEST OF 175W, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 032 AND IN THE AREA WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ, EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS. IN THE AREA NORTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175W AND 140W, EXPECT MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175W AND 145W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Thailand/ Myanmar/ Malaysia: Tropical Storm PABUK 36W 04/0900Z 8.3N 100.7E, moving W 20kt (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 1300Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm PABUK 36W

Thailand and Myanmar beware!

Malaysia be aware!

1901-00-1

 

TS 1901 (Pabuk)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 4 January 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 4 January>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N8°20′ (8.3°)
E100°40′ (100.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 4 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N8°40′ (8.7°)
E99°10′ (99.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 5 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°05′ (9.1°)
E97°35′ (97.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°50′ (10.8°)
E94°20′ (94.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 7 January>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°00′ (13.0°)
E90°40′ (90.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

THAILAND

Weather Warning
“Tropical Storm “PABUK””
No. 19 Time Issued : January 4, 2019

At 17.00 p.m. on 4 January 2019, tropical storm “PABUK” over A.Chang Klang, Nakhon Si thammarat or at latitude 8.4 degree north, longitude 99.7 degree east has maximum sustained wind is 65 km/hr. The storm is moving west at a speed of 13 km/hr. It is expected to move to Surat Thani. This will affect the South with widespread rainfalls, and torrential downpours are possible much of the area. People should beware of the severe conditions that cause forest runoffs and flash floods especially over tonight. Affected areas are as followings:

4 January: Torrential downpours and gusty winds much of provinces: Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

5 January: Torrential downpours and gusty wind much of provinces: Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

The strong winds are forecast with waves up to 3-5 meters high in the Gulf and 2-3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. All ships keep ashore lasting 5 January 2019. People in the Gulf should be aware of inshore surges.

The advisory is in effect on 4 January 2019 at 05.45 p.m.

 

(Signed) Phuwieng Prakhammintara

(Mr. Phuwieng Prakhammintara)

Director-General

Thai Meteorological Department

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

(4.1.2019): Weather is a few cloud over the Bay of Bengal and partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea.

Cyclone Warning
Friday, January 4, 2019 – 06:30
No Cyclone Warning

JABATAN METEOROLOGI MALAYSIA
KEMENTERIAN TENAGA, SAINS, TEKNOLOGI, ALAM SEKITAR & PERUBAHAN IKLIM
Jalan Sultan,
46667 Petaling Jaya,
Selangor Darul Ehsan,
Malaysia
Tel:
+603-79678000
Faks:
+603-79578052
Emel:
pcn@met.gov.my

JMM/POCGN(O)/BK-08
Ruj.Kami: JMM.RML06/599/46/JLD.49(26)
Nasihat Ribut Tropika
Dikeluarkan pada 5:45 petang 04 Januari 2019
Kategori: Nasihat Ribut Tropika (PABUK)
Masa Pencerapan: 17:00, 04 Januari 2019
Kedudukan: Latitud 8.3 Utara dan Longitud 100.7 Timur
kira-kira 146 km ke Timur Laut Hat Yai, Thailand.
Pergerakan: Ke arah Barat dengan kelajuan 15 km/j
Jarak dari Bandar terdekat: Kira-kira 216 km ke Timur Laut Arau, Perlis.
Kesan terhadap Malaysia: Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan angin kencang dan laut bergelora di perairan Kelantan dan Selat Melaka Utara.
Dikeluarkan oleh: Pusat Operasi Cuaca & Geofizik Nasional
Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
Kementerian Tenaga, Sains, Teknologi, Alam Sekitar & Perubahan Iklim
JABATAN METEOROLOGI MALAYSIA
KEMENTERIAN TENAGA, SAINS, TEKNOLOGI, ALAM SEKITAR & PERUBAHAN IKLIM
Jalan Sultan,
46667 Petaling Jaya,
Selangor Darul Ehsan,
Malaysia
Tel:
+603-79678000
Faks:
+603-79578052
Emel:
pcn@met.gov.my

JMM/POCGN(O)/BK-08
Our Ref.: JMM.RML06/599/46/JLD.49(26)
Tropical Storm Advisory
Issued at 5:45PM 4 January 2019
Category: Tropical Storm Advisory (PABUK)
Time of Observation: 17:00, 04 January 2019
Location: Latitude 8.3 North and Longitude 100.7 East
approximately 146 km Northeast of Hat Yai, Thailand.
Movement: West 15 km/h
Distance from nearest town: Approximately 216 km Northeast of Arau, Perlis.
Threat to Malaysia: This condition may cause strong winds and rough seas over waters off Kelantan and Northern Straits of Malacca.
Dikeluarkan oleh: Pusat Operasi Cuaca & Geofizik Nasional
Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
Kementerian Tenaga, Sains, Teknologi, Alam Sekitar & Perubahan Iklim

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jan, 2019 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PABUK is currently located near 7.2 N 103.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). PABUK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Surat Thani (9.1 N, 99.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Nakhon Si Thammarat (8.4 N, 100.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Chumphon (10.5 N, 99.2 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Ranong (10.0 N, 98.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Songkhla (7.2 N, 100.6 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Malaysia
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kota Baharu (6.1 N, 102.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
    Phuket (7.9 N, 98.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP27 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 46N 172E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING NE 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW WITHIN NEXT 6
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 50N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 54N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 52N 165E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1020 HPA
AT 41N 132E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 31N 134E ESE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 159E TO 30N 169E 33N 172E 35N 180E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1901 PABUK (1901) 996 HPA AT 08.4N 101.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

THAILAND

Shipping Weather Forecast

Synoptic Situation at January 4, 2019 15:00 LST
At 6.00 p.m. 4 January, Tropical storm “PABUK” over A.Chang Klang Nakhon Si thammarat or located at latitude 8.4 N, longitude 99.7 E. With its maximum sustained winds of 35 knots or 65 km/hr, the storm was moving west-northwest at a speed of 7 knots or 13 km/hr. It expected to move to Surat Thani next time. The strong northeast monsoon prevails across the Gulf with torrential downpours much of the South. The winds are intensifying with wave 3-5 meters high and 2-3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. All ships in the Gulf do not venture out off the sea lasting 5 January.
24-Hour Weather Forecast for Shipping
From January 4, 2019 17:00 – January 5, 2019 17:00 น.
Both sides of Thai gulf Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated torrential rains much of the areas. Northeasterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Andaman sea Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated torrential rains. Northwesterly winds 11-22 knots or 20-40 km/hr. Wave height 2-3 meters and above 3 meters offshore.
Kotabaru to Singapore Very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rains. Northwesterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Indochina Very cloudy with scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rains. Northeasterly winds 21-32 knots or 40-60 km/hr. Wave height 3-5 meters and above 5 meters in thundershower areas.
Issued Date January 4, 2019 17:00

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (MYANMAR)

BAY BULLETIN
ISSUED ON  4 – 1 – 2019 at 19:00hrs M.S.T

BALLOON   :

PART ONE :  No Storm.

PART TWO   :

SPECIAL FEATURE: According to the observations at (18:30) hrs MST today, the tropical depression (Pabuk) over the Gulf of Thailand and continuously crossed near Chaung Kiang (Thailand). IT is forecast to move westwards and reach to Andaman sea .
FORECAST FOR AREAS BETWEEN LAT. 10.5°N – 16.5°N AND LONG. 92°E
WEATHER    :        Fairlywidespread rain (or)  Thundershower.
VISIBILITY    :        (4) nautical  miles but (1) Nautical mile  in rain.
SURFACE WIND :   North (or ) NorthEast(15-20)kts at times (35) kts
SEAS    :               Rough
WAVE HEIGHT  :    (8-10)Feet

FORECAST FOR AREAS BETWEEN LAT. 16.5°N – 20.5°N AND LONG. 92°E
WEATHER    :      Partly cloudy
VISIBILITY    :      (5) nautical miles but (1) nautical mile in rain.
SURFACE WIND :  North (or ) NorthEast(10-15)kts at times (30) kts
SEAS    :               Moderate
WAVE HEIGHT  :    (4-6)

HOIST            : Signal, LC III, Section (VI)
ADD        :
REPLACE     (MLM, DWE, KONG, COI, YGN, PTH)

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Papua New Guinea/ Australia: Tropical Cyclone PENNY 08P 02/2100Z position near 13.9S 151.0E, moving E 24kt (JTWC) – Updated 02 Jan 2019 2126Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone PENNY 08P

Penny lies over the Coral Sea and is moving away from the Queensland east coast

Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in
intensity as an Australian category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on
Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 18 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Penny) Warning #12
Issued at 02/2100Z

sh0819

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
021800Z — NEAR 13.6S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 100 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 150.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 14.7S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 15.4S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 16.0S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 16.4S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 17.1S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 18.0S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 19.5S 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
POSITIONED JUST EAST. A 021723Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MICROWAVE STRUCTURE AND A 021200Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 50
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS. TC 08P WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08P WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-29
CELSIUS) SST SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE. DYNAMIC MODEL
VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND TRACK
SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Penny

Issued at 4:57 am AEST Thursday 3 January 2019. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Penny lies over the Coral Sea and is moving away from the Queensland east coast.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Penny at 4:00 am AEST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.3 degrees South, 149.3 degrees East , 340 kilometres north northwest of Willis Island and 505 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown .
Movement: east at 31 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Penny lies in the northwest Coral Sea and is tracking in an eastwards direction away from the east Queensland coast. Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in intensity as a category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening.

Hazards:

No direct impacts from the system are expected across Queensland in the short-term.

Recommended Action:

Nil.

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 am January 3 1 13.3S 149.3E 55
+6hr 10 am January 3 1 13.9S 151.2E 80
+12hr 4 pm January 3 2 14.4S 152.9E 100
+18hr 10 pm January 3 2 14.8S 154.0E 125
+24hr 4 am January 4 2 15.1S 154.5E 145
+36hr 4 pm January 4 2 15.7S 155.1E 185
+48hr 4 am January 5 1 16.0S 154.9E 220
+60hr 4 pm January 5 tropical low 16.3S 154.4E 255
+72hr 4 am January 6 tropical low 16.7S 153.5E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Thursday

 

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:59 am EST on Thursday 3 January 2019
At 4 am AEST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Penny with central pressure 992 hPa was
located over the northwest Coral Sea near latitude 13.3 south longitude 149.3
east, which is about 340 km north northwest of Willis Island and 505 km east
northeast of Cooktown.

Tropical Cyclone Penny is tracking in an eastwards direction away from the east
Queensland coast. Penny is forecast to gradually intensify, peaking in
intensity as a category 2 system well offshore of the Queensland east coast on
Friday before turning towards the southwest and weakening.

No direct impacts from the system are expected across Queensland in the
short-term.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am AEST Thursday.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Jan, 2019 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PENNY is currently located near 13.6 S 150.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). PENNY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Papua New Guinea
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alotau (10.3 S, 150.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1857UTC 2 JANUARY 2019

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Penny was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal three south (13.3S)
longitude one hundred and forty nine decimal three east (149.3E)
Recent movement : east at 17 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 1800 UTC 03
January.

Winds above 48 knots developing within 50 nautical miles by 0600 UTC 03 January.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 03 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.4 south 152.9 east.
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre
At 1800 UTC 03 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.1 south 154.5 east.
Central pressure 979 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre by 0100
UTC 03 January 2019.

WEATHER PERTH

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Philippines: LOW Former TD 35W (TD Usman in Philippines) 30/1400Z 8.3N 116.0E (PAGASA) – Updated 30 Dec 2018 1550Z (GMT/UTC)

LOW PRESSURE AREA 35W

(TD Usman in Philippines)

At 10:00 AM today ,  the  Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression “USMAN”)   was estimated, based on all available data, at 340 km West Southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  (8.3 °N, 116.0 °E).  – PAGASA

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

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PAGASA-DOST

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Weather Advisory

Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression

At 10:00 AM today ,  the   Low Pressure Area (formerly Tropical Depression “USMAN”)   was estimated, based on all available data, at 340 km West Southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  (8.3 °N, 116.0 °E).  

This weather disturbance, along with the  Tail-End of a Cold Front , will continue to bring, in the next 24 hours , moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Bicol Region, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, and Northern Palawan incl. Calamian and Cuyo Groups of Islands. Meanwhile, light to moderate rains will prevail over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region(CAR) and the rest of Cagayan Valley Region, of CALABARZON, of Central Luzon and of Palawan.   Residents of these areas, especially those living near river channels and in low-lying and mountainous areas, are advised to take appropriate measures, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates.   Due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.   Sea travel remains risky over the seaboards of Luzon, and the eastern seaboard of Visayas. The public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates to be  incorporated in the public weather forecast at 4:00 PM today and 4:00 AM tomorrow. The next weather advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Depression 35W (Thirtyfive) Warning #23 Final Warning
Issued at 30/0300Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
300000Z — NEAR 8.8N 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 119.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 8.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 8.1N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 119.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354
NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAGGED LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES INTO A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH ISOLATED, FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 292221Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS LIMITED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
SYSTEM IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAK
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 35W IS LOCATED WITHIN A
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT ADJACENT TO EXTENSIVE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 365NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA (INVEST 97W), THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR / NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
IT CROSSES PALAWAN ISLAND AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OUTER PERIPHERY
OF INVEST 97W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Gale Warning

Gale Warning # 10

Issued at: 5:00 PM today, 30 December 2018

Strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of northeast monsoon.

Strong to gale force winds is expected to affect the following areas.
Seaboard Weather Wind Force (kph/knots) Sea Condition Wave Height (meters)
The seaboards of northern and central luzon (Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, And Aurora) Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains (45 – 80) / (24 – 43) Rough to high 2.8 to 7.0
The western seaboard of southern luzon (Northern Palawan And Occidental Mindoro) Mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms (45 – 68) / (24 – 36) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 5.0
The eastern seaboard of southern luzon (Eastern Coast Of Quezon Including Polillo Island, Camarines Norte, Northern And Eastern Coasts Of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Eastern Coast Of Albay, And Eastern Coast Of Sorsogon) Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains (45 – 68) / (24 – 36) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 5.0
The eastern seaboard of visayas (Northern Samar And Eastern Samar) Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms (45 – 63) / (24 – 34) Rough to very rough 2.8 to 4.5

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves.

The next update will be issued at 5:00 am tomorrow.

Area Synopsis and 24-Hour Shipping Forecast

RPMM 300600
AREA SYNOPSIS AND 24-HOUR SHIPPING FORECAST
BEGINNING 301200
December 2018
Synopsis

SYNOPSIS: STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON PREVAILING OVER THE SHIPPING AREAS NORTH OF ONE EIGHT NORTH X SCARBOROUGH X MINDORO X CENTRAL PHILIPPINE AREA NORTH OF ONE TWO NORTH BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES TO EASTERLIES OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA PD

Shipping Zones Weather Condition Wind direction and Speed Wave Height
(meters)
Sea Condition
Bashi CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Balintang CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Scarborough CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
Central Philippine AREA NORTH OF ONE FIVE NORTH CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 22 MPS (24 – 44 KT) 2.8 – 7.0 ROUGH TO HIGH
MINDORO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
EAST TAIWAN CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
RYUKYU CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
NORTH PHILIPPINE CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAINS NORTHEASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
REST OF CENTRAL PHILIPPINE Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 18 MPS (24 – 36 KT) 2.8 – 5.0 Rough to Very Rough
INLAND AREA NORTH OF ONE THREE NORTH Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM12 UP TO 15 MPS (24 – 30 KT) 2.8 – 3.7 Rough
SULU AREA NORTH OF ONE ZERO NORTH Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 12 UP TO 15 MPS (24 – 30 KT) 2.8 – 3.7 Rough
South Philippine Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 14 MPS (16 – 28 KT) 1.2 – 3.4 Moderate to Rough
PALAWAN MOSTLY cloudy skies with SCATTERED rains and thunderstorms EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
REST OF INLAND Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
REST OF SULU Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 12 MPS (16 – 24 KT) 1.2 – 2.8 Moderate to Rough
MINDANAO Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 8 UP TO 11 MPS (16 – 22 KT) 1.2 – 2.5 Moderate to occasionally Rough
MORO Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers OR thunderstorms NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FROM 4 UP TO 10 MPS (8 – 20 KT) 0.6 – 2.1 SLIGHT TO MODERATE

WWJP27 RJTD 301200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 301200.
WARNING VALID 311200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 950 HPA
AT 51N 176E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 18 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 984 HPA
AT 42N 157E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 29N 122E 19N 123E 14N 116E 08N 110E
07N 107E 10N 107E 13N 109E 16N 108E 22N 112E 24N 118E 29N 122E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 114E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 172E TO 29N 176E 31N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mauritius/ Rodrigues/ La Reunion: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA 07S 21/1200Z 15.2S 57.7E, moving S 06ky 950hpa (RSMC LaReunion) – Published 21 Dec 2018 1417Z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA 07S

CILIDA is a now category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, expected to intensify further to a category 5 storm on same scale by 22 Dec, 0:00

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Latest position see Maritime/Shipping section below

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Cilida) Warning #10
Issued at 21/0900Z

sh0719

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 14.6S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 58.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 15.6S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 17.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 18.9S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 20.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 24.7S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z — 29.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 65 KNOTS AT 20/06Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED 15NM EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION DUE TO
LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 210522Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING WITH AN OBLONG EYEWALL SURROUNDING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5/6.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES AS WELL AS A RECENT CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 109 KNOTS. TC 07S
IS WOBBLING SLIGHTLY AS IT SLOWLY TURNS POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 155NM AT TAU 72
AND 220NM AT TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, TC CILIDA WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24-26C). THE SYSTEM
SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

SWI05_20182019

 

Bulletin du 21 décembre à 10H29 locales Réunion:
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CILIDA.
Pression estimée au centre: 955 HPA.
Position le 21 décembre à 10 heures locales Réunion: 14.6 Sud / 58.0 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 745 km au secteur: NORD-NORD-EST.
Distance de Mayotte : 1390 km au secteur: EST.
Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 9 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le “Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique” (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

Bulletin of December 21 at 10:29 La Reunion:
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CILIDA.
Estimated pressure in the center: 955 HPA.
Position December 21 at 10 am local Meeting: 14.6 South / 58.0 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 745 km to the sector: NORD-NORD-EST.
Distance from Mayotte: 1390 km to the area: EST.
Travel: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 9 km / h.
This newsletter is now complete.
Consult the “Cyclonic Activity Bulletin” (see link below)
to get the forecasts on this system.

http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours/dirre/CILIDA

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Dec, 2018 6:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA is currently located near 14.6 S 58.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). CILIDA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. CILIDA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mauritius
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds (US hurricane scale)

 

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 211215
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 00 UTC:
16.4 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

India/ Bay Of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm Phethai 08B 15/1500Z position nr 10.8N 84.9E, moving NNW 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Dec 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Phethai/ Tropical Cyclone 08B

DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS – RSMC New Delhi

INDIA: Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 08B (Eight) Warning #02
Issued at 15/1500Z

io0818

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 10.4N 85.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 85.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 11.9N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 13.4N 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 15.1N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 16.6N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 19.1N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 151251Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A 150326Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF
BENGAL. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER INDIA. DUE TO TC 08B’S BROAD STRUCTURE AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 08B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING
VWS (30-50 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, COOLER SST (25-26C),
DRIER AIR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TC 08B WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72 AS IT
BEGINS TO RECURVE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

INDIA

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 1
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 1 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 15.12.2018 BASED ON 1200 UTC
OF 15.12.2018.
DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL:
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘PHETHAI (PRONOUNCED AS PAY-TI)’
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 15TH DECEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.3°N AND LONGITUDE 84.9°E, ABOUT 440 KM EASTNORTHEAST
OF TRINCOMALEE (43418) (SRI LANKA), 590 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI (43278) (TAMIL NADU) AND 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MACHILIPATNAM
(43185) (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS
AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN
MACHILIPATNAM AND KAKINADA DURING 17TH DECEMBER AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat.°N/ long.°E)
Maximum sustained
surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
15.12.18/1200 10.3/84.9 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
15.12.18/1800 11.0/84.4 65-75 gusting to 85 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/0000 11.8/83.7 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/0600 12.4/83.2 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/1200 13.3/82.7 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/0000 15.0/82.1 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/1200 16.4/82.1 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/0000 17.5/82.6 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/1200 18.3/83.4 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 1200 UTC ON 15TH DECEMBER THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM OVER SW BAY & N/HOOD IS T 2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER AREA
BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.5°N TO 15.0°N AND LONG 82.0°E TO 92.0°E (.) MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93.1° C.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA
IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4 WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH AMPLITUDE
GREATER THAN 1 FOR NEXT 4-5 DAYS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION & INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) IS 28-29˚C AROUND THE SYSTEM AREA. IT IS DECREASING SLIGHTLY BECOMING
26-28˚C TOWARDS WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ALONG & OFF ANDHRA
PRADESH COAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2
OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF BOB ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 60×10-
5 SECOND-1 TOWARDS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. LOWER LEVEL
VORTICITY IS 200×10-6 SECOND 1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS 20×10-5 SECOND-1 TOWARDS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND
INCREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES WARM AND MOIST AIR FEEDING INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM FROM
SOUTHEAST SECTOR AND DRY & COLD AIR PREVAILS OVER PENINSULAR INDIA. ALL
THESE MAY LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 16°N. THE SYSTEM IS BEING GUIDED
BY THE ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA, AND HENCE WILL HAVE MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOVEMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. AS PER THE
MODEL FORECAST A DEEP TROUGH IN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES IS
APPROACHING THE INDIAN REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO RECURVATURE OF THE
SYSTEM TO NORTHEAST AFTER LANDFALL OVER ANDHRA PRADESH COAST. FURTHER
UNDER THE COMBIND EFFECT OF ANTICYCLONE AND ABOVE TROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. IT MAY
LEAD TO INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION. HENCE THERE IS POSSIBILITIES
OF WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY ON 17TH DECEMBER BEFORE LANDFALL DUE
TO DRY & COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHWEST AND COLDER SST & LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND HIGH WIND SHEAR. LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND SUGGEST
WIND SPEED OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS ARE HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. MOST OF
THE NWP MODEL GUIDENCE AGREE WITH ABOVE ANALYSIS.
(V.R. DURAI)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Dec, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EIGHT is currently located near 10.4 N 85.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). EIGHT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Kavali (14.9 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151609

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1500 UTC 15 DECEMBER 2018.

PART:-I STORM WARNING.

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 09 KNOTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM PHETHAI (PRONOUNCED
AS PAY-TI) AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 15 TH DECEMBER, 2018 OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.9
DEG E, ABOUT 440 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA), 590 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU) AND 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MACHILIPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
BETWEEN MACHILIPATNAM AND KAKINADA DURING 0900 UTC TO 1200 UTC OF
17 TH DECEMBER (.)

PART:-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E :N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 72 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E TO 72 DEG E: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E :NE/N-LY 15/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 1 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N :NE/E-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:NE/N-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 16 DEG N TO 70 DEG E AND NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF16 DEG N (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E NE-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 20 DEG N :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N :NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E TO 72 DEG E :NE-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 62 DEG E (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 72 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
4)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E :NE/N-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 66 DEG E 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA :0.5-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N: CYCLONIC 40/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: W/NW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-4.5-9.0 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N E-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS TO THE W OF 87 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N NW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2.5-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 15 DEG N CYCLONIC 40/54 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 93 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG TO W OF 93 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 15 DEG N :5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2.5-5.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 17 DEG N : N/NE-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
1)S OF 17 DEG N :CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 18 DEG N :5.0-10.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 3.5-5.0 MTR (.)

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P 13/0600Z 15.1S 136.1E, slow moving. Max Wind 75kt. 961hPa (BoM) – Updated 13 Dec 2018 1000Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone OWEN 04U 05P

Australian Category 3 intensity = Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Severe TC Owen may reach Australian Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..– BoM

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP NT

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Issued at 4:53 pm ACST Thursday 13 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 24.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:
– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.
– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.
– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.
– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.
– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using
available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm December 13 3 15.1S 136.1E 35
+6hr 10 pm December 13 3 15.0S 136.5E 60
+12hr 4 am December 14 4 14.8S 137.2E 80
+18hr 10 am December 14 4 14.8S 138.1E 105
+24hr 4 pm December 14 4 15.0S 139.3E 130
+36hr 4 am December 15 3 15.8S 141.7E 165
+48hr 4 pm December 15 tropical low 17.2S 143.9E 200
+60hr 4 am December 16 tropical low 18.7S 145.7E 235
+72hr 4 pm December 16 tropical low 20.1S 147.5E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 pm ACST Thursday

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP QLD

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen

Issued at 5:28 pm AEST Thursday 13 December 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 24.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw..

Watch zone: Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen..

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 4:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:
– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.
– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.
– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.
– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.
– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using
available daylight hours/before nightfall].

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm December 13 3 15.1S 136.1E 35
+6hr 10 pm December 13 3 15.0S 136.5E 60
+12hr 4 am December 14 4 14.8S 137.2E 80
+18hr 10 am December 14 4 14.8S 138.1E 105
+24hr 4 pm December 14 4 15.0S 139.3E 130
+36hr 4 am December 15 3 15.8S 141.7E 165
+48hr 4 pm December 15 tropical low 17.2S 143.9E 200
+60hr 4 am December 16 tropical low 18.7S 145.7E 235
+72hr 4 pm December 16 tropical low 20.1S 147.5E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:30 pm AEST Thursday

 

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Port Roper and Port McArthur, including Port McArthur are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 4:52 pm ACST [5:22 pm AEST] on Thursday 13 December 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Numbulwar in the Northern Territory, to Aurukun in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Mornington Island, Karumba, Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw.

Watch Zone
Extending inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen.

Cancelled Zone
None

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 3:30 pm ACST [4:00 pm AEST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South 136.1 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Roper and 95 kilometres northwest of Port McArthur.

Movement: slow moving.

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. The system has begun to move eastwards back over the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours whilst moving through a more favourable environment. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity overnight or early Friday.

 

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw later Friday or early Saturday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are possible right near the centre, and may develop along the coast to Port McArthur during Thursday evening, including Bing Bong, as Owen moves east. They may also develop near the coast to the NT/Qld Border if Severe TC Owen takes a more southerly track. If Owen maintains intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday or early Saturday.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely near the centre and may develop along the coast near Port McArthur Thursday evening as Severe TC Owen moves east, and if Owen takes a more southerly track they may also develop along the coast to the NT/Qld Border early Friday. During Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Burketown and Cape Keerweer as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

 

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far north as Numbulwar for a period Thursday evening and then to the NT/Qld Border late Thursday or early Friday. GALES may extend to Burketown during Friday, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Aurukun and adjacent inland areas late Friday.

 

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the southwestern and southern Gulf of Carpentaria late Thursday and early Friday. HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding is also likely across southern Cape York Peninsula later Friday and Saturday.

 

Coastal residents along the coast east of the cyclone to Port McArthur, including Bing Bong, are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE overnight tonight. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. From Port McArthur to Aurukun and from Port Roper to Alyangula, a STORM TIDE may develop and tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents from Numbulwar to QLD/NT Border, A CYCLONE IS COMING:

 

Residents from Numbulwar to Port McArthur, including Port Roper and Port McArthur:

– Take Shelter as conditions deteriorate.

– Shelters are open in Numbulwar and Borroloola.

– Move inside at home or to public shelters as winds and rain start.

– Ngukurr and Groote Eylandt residents should prepare for the possibility of wind and rain.

– Communities need to be aware this event will extend into this evening.

 

Further advice on cyclone emergencies in the Northern Territory is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

 

People between the NT/Qld border and Aurukun, including Mornington Island, Karumba and Pormpuraaw, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using

available daylight hours/before nightfall].

 

People in areas inland from Karumba to Aurukun as far as Georgetown, Chillagoe and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

 

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm ACST Thursday 13 December [8:30 pm AEST Thursday 13 December].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2018 6:00 GMT

 

Tropical Cyclone OWEN is currently located near 15.1 S 136.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). OWEN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OWEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alyangula (13.9 S, 136.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Numbulwar (14.5 S, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Borroloola (16.1 S, 136.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Edward River (15.0 S, 141.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 (Hurricane) or above winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:15S136E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, PERTH
Issued at 0724UTC 13 DECEMBER 2018

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal one south (15.1S)
longitude one hundred and thirty six decimal one east (136.1E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 75 knots
Central pressure: 961 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre increasing to 95 knots by 0000 UTC 14
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 13 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.8 south 137.2 east
Central pressure 949 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 14 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.0 south 139.3 east
Central pressure 946 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1330 UTC 13 December 2018.

PERTH Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Vietnam/ Cambodia/ Thailand: Severe Tropical Storm USAGI 33W 24/1500Z near 9.6N 108.1E, moving W Slow 985hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 24 Nov 2018 1725Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm USAGI 33W

VIETNAM BEWARE!

Usagi expected to make landfall over Hochimin, Vietnam from 25-27 November

Cambodia and Thailand be aware!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET JTWC

1829-001

 

STS 1829 (Usagi)
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 24 November 2018

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 24 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N9°35′ (9.6°)
E108°05′ (108.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°55′ (9.9°)
E107°10′ (107.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°30′ (10.5°)
E106°30′ (106.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°35′ (11.6°)
E105°30′ (105.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1010 hPa
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

VIETNAM NCHMF

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Saturday, November 24, 2018 9.9 108 TS 76 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

04 Sunday, November 25, 2018 10.1 107.3 TS 76 km/hour
10 Sunday, November 25, 2018 10.5 106.4 46 TD km/hour
22 Sunday, November 25, 2018 11.3 104.5 Low 37 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 02:30 AM Sunday, November 25, 2018
Satellite Imagery

xxxxx

Thai Meteorological Department

Weather Warning
“Tropical Storm “Usagi””
No. 9 Time Issued : November 24, 2018

At 10.00 p.m. on 24 November, typhoon USAGI due 170 km Southeast of Hochimin, Vietnam, or latitude 9.7 N, longitude 107.8 E, downgrade to tropical storm with the maximum sustained winds of 110 km/hr. Moving west at a speed about 15 km/hr, it is forecast to make landfall over Hochimin, Vietnam from 25-27 November and decline, respectively. All travelers stay tuned for the weather updated.

The advisory is in effect on 24 November 2018 at 11.00 p.m.

The next issue will be on 25 November 2018 at 5.00 a.m.

 

(Signed) Phuwieng Prakhammintara

(Mr. Phuwieng Prakhammintara)

Deputy Director-General

Acting Director-General

Thai Meteorological Department

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT

Typhoon USAGI is currently located near 9.7 N 108.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). USAGI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. USAGI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Can Tho (10.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 33W (Usagi) Warning #26
Issued at 24/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 9.7N 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 108.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 10.2N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 10.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 11.0N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 11.2N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 108.0E.
TYPHOON 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO
CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

xxxx

Other

DocR U24
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP27 RJTD 241200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS FOR NEXT 18 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 155E 48N 155E 48N 180E 32N 180E
36N 165E 41N 155E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 6 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 49N 165E 55N 164E 60N 170E 60N 180E
48N 180E 49N 165E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1020 HPA AT 39N 131E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 57N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 32N 132E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 39N 143E EAST 15 KT.
COLD FRONT FROM 31N 180E TO 30N 177E 29N 174E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 174E TO 29N 170E 28N 160E 27N 153E 22N
144E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1828 MAN-YI (1828) 955 HPA AT 18.6N 136.3E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1829 USAGI (1829) 985 HPA AT 09.7N 108.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Thailand Shipping Weather Forecast

Synoptic Situation at November 24, 2018 21:00 LST
At 7.00 p.m. on 24 November, Typhoon USAGI centered at latitude 9.7 ° N and longitude 108.0 °E has downgraded to tropical storm the maximum sustained winds of 60 knots or 110 km/hr. The storm is moving west with a speed of 7 knots or 15 km/hr. It is forecast to make landfall over southern Vietnam from 25-27 November and decline. The northeasterly monsoon across the Gulf bring about isolated rain over the South.
24-Hour Weather Forecast for Shipping
From November 24, 2018 23:00 – November 25, 2018 23:00 น.
Both sides of Thai gulf
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-18 knots or 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters and above 2 meters in thundershower areas.
Andaman sea
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-16 knots or 15-30 km/hr. Wave height about 1 meter and 1-2 meters in thundershower areas.
Kotabaru to Singapore
Partly cloudy with isolated thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 8-16 knots or 15-30 km/hr. Wave height about 1 meter.
Indochina
Cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers. Northeasterly winds 11-24 knots or 20-45 km/hr. Wave height 2-4 meters and above 4 meters in thundershower areas.
Issued Date November 24, 2018 23:00

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Minami Daito Jima/ Okinawa/ Amami Ōshima/ Japan: Typhoon MANYI 34W 23/1800Z near 17.1N 135.1E, moving N 09kt 955hPa (RSMC Tokyo) – Updated 23 Nov 2018 2018Z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON MAN-YI 34W

Minami Daito Jima, Okinawa, Amami Ōshima and Japan mainland be aware!

Man-Yi is a storm equivalent to a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 231200Z IS 23 FEET – JTWC

1828-001

TY 1828 (Man-yi)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 23 November 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 23 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N17°05′ (17.1°)
E135°05′ (135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 520 km (280 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 24 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°00′ (18.0°)
E135°10′ (135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 24 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N18°05′ (18.1°)
E135°00′ (135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 25 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N19°00′ (19.0°)
E131°55′ (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°40′ (21.7°)
E131°00′ (131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 34W (Man-yi) Warning #16
Issued at 23/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 16.6N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 135.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 17.9N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 18.5N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 18.9N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 19.5N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 21.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 24.0N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 26.7N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 135.3E.
TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 729 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 33W (USAGI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NWS GUAM

 

 

 

257
WTPQ31 PGUM 231531
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Man-yi (34W) Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP342018
200 AM ChST Sat Nov 24 2018

…TYPHOON MAN-YI BEGINS TO WEAKEN…

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
————————–
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
Location…16.9N 135.3E

About 545 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 565 miles north-northwest of Ulithi
About 675 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 705 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds…100 mph
Present movement…northwest…335 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC…the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located
near Latitude 16.9 degrees North and Longitude 135.3 degrees East.
Man-yi is moving northwest at 15 mph. It is expected to turn north
tonight then back to the west-northwest Saturday afternoon, with a
decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 100 mph. Man-yi is
forecast to maintain this intensity today, then slowly weaken the
next few days.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 45 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 165
miles east of the center and up to 155 miles west of the center.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM this morning.

$$

Ziobro

Guam Alerts

Micronesian Alerts

xxxxxxxxx

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT (NOTE DATE)

Tropical Storm MAN-YI is currently located near 8.7 N 146.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). MAN-YI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guam
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DocR M22

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WWJP28 RJTD 231500
EMERGENCY WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 958 HPA
AT 45N 167E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 44N 175E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 43N 174W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 982 HPA AT 43N 160E
MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1828 MAN-YI (1828) 955 HPA AT 16.6N 134.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1829 USAGI (1829) 985 HPA AT 10.5N 110.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Vietnam/ Cambodia/ South China Sea: Tropical Storm Toraji 32W 17/1200Z 11.2N 110.7E, moving WSW 10kt 1004hPa (RSMCTokyo) – Published 17 Nov 2018 1330Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Toraji 32W

Vietnam Beware! Cambodia be aware!

JMA logo

1827-00

TS 1827 (Toraji)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 17 November 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 17 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N11°10′ (11.2°)
E110°40′ (110.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 170 km (90 NM)
SE 110 km (60 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°55′ (10.9°)
E109°05′ (109.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N10°00′ (10.0°)
E105°50′ (105.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

NCHMF VIETNAM

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

18 Saturday, November 17, 2018 11.0 111.1 TS 65 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

18 Sunday, November 18, 2018 11.2 109.3 TS 65 km/hour
18 Monday, November 19, 2018 10.6 106.5 TD 46 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:45 PM Saturday, November 17, 2018
Satellite Imagery

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1827 TORAJI (1827) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1004 HPA
AT 11.2N 110.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 10.9N 109.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 10.0N 105.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Sri Lanka/ Bay of Bengal: Cyclonic Storm GAJA 07B 142100Z 11.7N 83.6E, moving SW 08kt (JTWC) Expected to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm within 12hrs (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 14 Nov 2018 2100Z (GMT/UTC)

CYCLONIC STORM GAJA 07B

India, Sri Lanka and Bay of Bengal be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 07B (Gaja) Warning #17
Issued at 14/2100Z

io0718

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTIO31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141800Z — NEAR 11.8N 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 84.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 11.3N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 10.9N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 10.8N 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 10.8N 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 10.9N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 11.2N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 11.4N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 141548Z ASCAT
PASS WHICH SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS, EXTENDING ABOUT 20 NM FROM THE
CENTER, IN ALL QUADRANTS. LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFICATION. TC 07B IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN INTACT AND
CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24,
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 07B TO INTENSIFY TO ABOUT 70
KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN INDIA
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, TC 07B WILL EMERGE
OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEAR 35 KNOTS
THROUGH TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH PREDICTS
RECURVATURE AND SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON
200 NM OF MODEL SPREAD (WITHOUT GFS) BY TAU 120, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z,
151500Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

IMD Logo

ftrack IMD G14

sector-ir

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 29
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) NATIONAL
CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 60 HOURS ISSUED AT 1600 UTC OF
14.11.2018 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 14.11.2018.
CYCLONIC STORM ‘GAJA’ OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘GAJA’ OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE 12.2°N AND LONGITUDE 84.0°E, ABOUT 410 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI
(43278) (TAMIL NADU) AND 480 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43347) (TAMIL NADU). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND CROSS TAMIL NADU COAST BETWEEN PAMBAN
(43363) AND CUDDALORE (43329) DURING 1200 & 1500 UTC OF 15TH NOVEMBER AS A CYCLONIC
STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 80 KMPH-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
14.11.18/1500 12.2/84.0 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
14.11.18/1800 12.1/83.6 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/0000 11.7/82.7 90-100 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/0600 11.2/81.8 90-100 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.11.18/1200 10.8/80.5 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
16.11.18/0000 10.6/78.9 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
16.11.18/1200 10.5/77.1 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
17.11.18/0000 10.4/75.3 20-30 gusting to 40 Low
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER 2018, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS C.I. 2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER BAY
OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 11.0°N TO 16.0°N AND LONGITUDE 82.0°E TO 86.0°E.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 86°C.

AT 1500 UTC OF 14TH NOVEMBER, A BOUY LOCATED AT 13.5°N/84.2°E REPORTED A
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1005.8 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 50°/
23 KNOTS. ANOTHER BOUY LOCATED AT 14°N/87°E REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 1009 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 110°/8 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. STATE OF
SEA IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE WINDS ARE STRONGER IN
NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 5 WITH
AMPLITUDE CLOSE TO 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT 2 DAYS WITH
AMPLITUDE LESS THAN THAN 1. HENCE MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL DURING
NEXT 2 DAYS. THUS, IT WILL FAVOUR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-29°C
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL(TCHP) IS 50-80 KJ/CM2 AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. IT IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OF THE
ORDER 10X10-5 SECOND-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL VORTICITY
IS OF THE ORDER 120X10-6 SECOND-1 TO SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER OF 20X10-5 SECOND-1 TO THE NORTHEAST
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
OVER THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALSO ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. AS PER THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY, WARM AIR ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE NEAR NORTH TAMIL NADU AND ANDHRA PRADESH
COASTS. CLOUD IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD ORGANISATION WITH
BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRE FROM NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
SECTORS RESULTING IN CURVED BAND PATTERN FOR THE SYSTEM. THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS FOVOURABLE FOR INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE WHICH CAN LEAD TO
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ALL THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 12
HOURS INTO A MARGINAL SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. HOWEVER, WHILE MOVING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA WHICH CAN INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFIFCATION OF THE SYSTEM AND
RATHER CAN CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG LAT 15°N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST (ARABIAN SEA) AND THE COL REGION TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TILL LANDFALL. THEREAFTER IT WILL MOVE IN A NEAR
WESTWARDS DIRECTION WITH INCREASE IN SPEED OF MOVEMENT.
(D.JOARDAR)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI

WEATHER FORECAST FOR 15th NOVEMBER 2018

(Issued at 1200 noon on 14th November 2018)

The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over the Central Bay of Bengal is now located approximately 660km away from Kankasanturai to the northeast of Sri Lanka, near latitude-13.1N, Longitude-85.3E at 05.30a.m. today.

 

Under the influence of this system showery and windy condition will enhance over the Northern province from tomorrow evening.

Showers or thundershowers at times will occur over the Northern province. Very heavy falls above 150mm can be expected in the Jaffna peninsula. Heavy falls above 100mm can be expected in other areas in the Northern province.

Several spells of showers will occur in Anuradhapura and Puttalam districts. Mainly fair weather will prevail elsewhere.

Very strong winds (60-70) kmph, gusting up to 80kmph can be expected over Northern province particularly over the Jaffna peninsula from tomorrow evening.

HIMAWARI Imagery

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Nov, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GAJA is currently located near 12.3 N 84.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). GAJA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pondicherry (11.9 N, 79.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 141800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 14 NOVEMBER 2018.

PART:-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM \u2018GAJA\u2019 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HRS IST OF 14 TH NOVEMBER, 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 84.2 DEG E, ABOUT 430 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU) AND 510 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (TAMIL NADU). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND CROSS TAMIL NADU COAST BETWEEN PAMBAN AND CUDDALORE DURING 15 TH NOVEMBER EVENING AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 80-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH (.)

PART:-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E:
N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 62 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 55 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
4)E OF 70 DEG E NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E: NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 71 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: N-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE W OF 66
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E:
N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 72 DEG E
AND S OF 13 DEG N (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 21 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA :FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA :10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2.0 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 90 DEG E
:CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPRED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 5 DEG N: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.5-4.0 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS TO THE W OF 90
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 18 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 20 DEG N: 9.0-12.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 4.0-9.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS \u2013
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 14 DEG N ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS (.)
2)S OF 14 DEG N :CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 18 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 20 DEG N:4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
—————————————
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++

Sri Lanka

WEATHER FORECAST FOR SEA AREAS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING

NEXT 24 HOURS (Issued at 1200 noon on 14th November2018)

The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over the Central Bay of Bengal is now located approximately 660km away from Kankasanturai to the northeast of Sri Lanka, near latitude-13.1N, Longitude-85.3E at 05.30a.m. today. It is very likely to move west-southwestwards and intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours.

Under the influence of this system, winds can be strengthen and seas will be very rough over sea areas off coast extending from Batticaloa to Mannar via Trincomalee and Kankasanturai.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea areas off coast extending from Potuvil to Mannar via Trincomalee and Kankasanturai.

Showers or thundershowers will occur in the sea areas extending from Trincomalee to Puttalam via Kankasanturai. Heavy showers or thundershowers can be expected in the sea areas extending from Mullaitivu to Mannar via Kankasanturai.

Winds will be North-westerly to Westerly over the sea areas around the island and speed will be 30-40 kmph.

Sea areas to the North and East of the island will be very rough at times as the wind speed can increase up to (70-80) kmph at times. Sea areas off southern coast can be rough at times as the wind speed can increase up to (50-60) kmph.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Madagascar/ Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Alcide 03S 101500Z nr 12.9S 52.7E, moving NW 01kt (JTWC) – Published 10 Nov 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Alcide 03S

Madagascar, Providence Island and Seychelles be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Alcide) Warning #18
Issued at 10/0900Z

sh0319

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 12.9S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 52.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 12.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 12.5S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 12.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 12.0S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 10.6S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 52.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH COMPACT RAIN
BANDS FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREAKS
SPIRALING INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL AT 26-27 CELSIUS, COOLED
BY UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE PROLONGED QS MOTION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST ASSUMES
STEERING. INCREASING VWS AND COOL SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD BUT WITH A GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN
EVENTUAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

Bulletin du 10 novembre à 16H27 locales Réunion:
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALCIDE.
Pression estimée au centre: 997 HPA.
Position le 10 novembre à 16 heures locales Réunion: 12.7 Sud / 52.6 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 955 km au secteur: NORD-NORD-OUEST.
Distance de Mayotte : 800 km au secteur: EST.
Déplacement: Quasi-stationnaire .
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le “Bulletin d’Activité Cyclonique” (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

Bulletin of November 10 at 16:27 local Réunion:
TROPICAL STORM MODERATE ALKID.
Estimated pressure at the center: 997 HPA.
Position November 10 at 4 pm Réunion: 12.7 South / 52.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 955 km to the sector: NORD-NORD-OUEST.
Distance from Mayotte: 800 km to the area: EST.
Displacement: Quasi-stationary.
This newsletter is now complete.
Consult the “Cyclonic Activity Bulletin” (see link below)
to get the forecasts on this system.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 101308 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ALCIDE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 52.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 00 UTC:
12.6 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 12 UTC:
12.4 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Cocos Island/ Home Island: Tropical Cyclone FOUR 04S 100900Z position near 5.5S 90.7E, moving S 05kt (JTWC) – Published 10 Nov 2018 1510Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FOUR 04S

Cocos Island/ Home Island Beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 8 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Four) Warning #01
Issued at 10/0900Z

sh0419

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOITN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100221ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 5.5S 90.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 90.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 5.6S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 5.6S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 5.4S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 5.4S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 6.1S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 7.6S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 9.3S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 5.5S 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 100353Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS)
STATE UP TO TAU 48 AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARD, IT WILL
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
ASSUMES STEERING. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72, FUELED BY INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AND
TRAJECTORIES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE QS STATE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS ANS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO22 PGTW 100230)//
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta

bom_logo_clr

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FQAU21 AMMC 100715
40:2:1:31:11:01:00
IDY10240
SECURITE

High Seas Forecast for Northern METAREA 8/10/11
NORTHERN AREA: COAST AT 125E TO 12S125E TO 12S90E TO 0S90E TO 0S142E TO COAST
AT 142E

Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 10 November 2018

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Part 1 Warnings
Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected.

Nil.

Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC
Refer to latest warnings for boundary of affected area and type of weather
system.

Southeasterly trade flow over most of area.

Low 1006hPa near 04S092E. Forecast 1005hPa near 03S092E at 111200UTC.

Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.

Within 180nm of low:
Clockwise winds 15/25 knots increasing to 20/30 knots within 90nm of low in
southern and western semicircle. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell.

Remainder west of line 05S098E 07S104E 12S107E:
Southeast quarter winds 15/25 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate
swell.

Elsewhere:
Winds not exceeding 20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell.

Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms within 180nm of low. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms remainder mainly, north of line 07S142E 02S131E
04S117E 10S113E 10S090E. Isolated showers elsewhere. Visibility reducing below
2nm in precipitation.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

The next routine forecast will be issued at 19:15 UTC Saturday.

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mexico: Tropical Storm XAVIER 25E 05/1800Z 18.7N 106.5W, moving WNW ~3.77kt 999mb (NHC FL) – Published 05 Nov 2018 1855Z

Tropical Storm XAVIER 25E

…XAVIER GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY SHOWERS WINDING DOWN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO…NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 051743
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018
1100 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

…XAVIER GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY SHOWERS WINDING DOWN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…18.7N 106.5W
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 106.5 West. Xavier is
moving a little bit faster toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7
km/h), and an additional increase in forward speed is expected later
today. A westward motion is forecast by early Tuesday, continuing
through Thursday. On the forecast track, Xavier’s center is
expected to continue moving farther away from the southwestern coast
of Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Colima and Jalisco, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches
possible. This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still possible within the
warning area during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 5 Nov, 2018 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm XAVIER is currently located near 18.5 N 106.2 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). XAVIER is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 25E (Xavier) Warning #12
Issued at 05/1600Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25E (XAVIER) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
051200Z — NEAR 18.4N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 106.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 18.7N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 18.9N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 18.9N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 18.8N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 18.5N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 106.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 25E (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1046 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND
061600Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

FZPN02 KWBC 051725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON NOV 05 2018

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 07.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW NW OF AREA 58N169E 967 MB MOVING E 20 KT NEXT 12 HOURS THEN
TURNING NE 25 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 62N175E TO 59N173W TO
50N179W. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 480 NM S
QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 23 FT. ALSO WITHIN 150
NM NE AND E OF THE FRONT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 48N W OF 176W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 58N173E 972 MB. WITHIN 360 NM
SE AND 420 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N175W 985 MB. N OF 53N W OF 167W WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 29 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
51N163E TO 43N175E TO 43N180W TO 54N167W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
TO 19 FT…HIGHEST S QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA 67N164W 999 MB. N OF 62N W OF
ALASKA WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN BERING
SEA BETWEEN 162W AND 179E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 55N131W 1004 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 480 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 41N E OF 153W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. FROM 42N TO 56N E OF
138W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN W TO NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 45N168W 1007 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE AND 420 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO
17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW TO 46N163W TO 45N157W…WITHIN 180 NM E OF A FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 43N157W TO 36N160W AND WITHIN 600 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N157W 1004 MB. WITHIN 420 NM E QUADRANT
AND FROM 43N TO 50N BETWEEN 159W AND 165W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT…HIGHEST SW. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 54N BETWEEN
156W AND 175W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT…HIGHEST SW OF
LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N151W 998 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S…AND 360
NM W AND NW QUADRANTS AND OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF A FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE LOW TO 55N148W TO 53N140W TO 48N133W WINDS 25 TO
40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N168E TO 35N160E AREA
OF E TO SE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 30N168E TO 35N160E AREA OF E
TO SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 169E AREA OF E WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 175W AREA OF E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

..GALE WARNING…
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 52N160E 1009 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 56N166E 996 MB. WITHIN 480 NM E
AND 720 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 33N TO 40N BETWEEN 121W AND 127W AREA OF NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 42N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W AREA OF
N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 43N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W AREA OF
N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N TO 38N BETWEEN
156W AND 175W AREA OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN AREA FROM
45N157W TO 43N149W TO 39N158W TO 45N157W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.

.HIGH 37N142W 1029 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N139W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N138W 1027 MB.

.HIGH 47N144W 1027 MB MOVING SE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N133W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N132W 1027 MB.

.HIGH 53N165W 1023 MB MOVING NE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 39N172E 1033 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N180W 1035 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 45N170E 1031 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N177W 1035 MB.

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON NOV 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE NOV 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED NOV 07.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM XAVIER NEAR 18.5N 106.2W 999 MB AT 1500 UTC NOV
05 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS…100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM XAVIER NEAR 18.9N 108.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN
107W AND 109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW XAVIER NEAR 18.8N
111.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW XAVIER NEAR 18.5N
113.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N TO NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 07N104W 1010 MB. FROM 02N TO 05N
BETWEEN 98W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW
SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 01S BETWEEN 81W AND 86W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1515 UTC MON NOV 5…

T.S. XAVIER…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT.

LOW PRES NEAR 14N118W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 08N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N94W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 14N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N129W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N138W TO 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N E OF 99W.

.FORECASTER NR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 05 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 06 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 07 2018.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 29N158E 1015 MB. E TO
S WINDS 30 TO 35 KT N OF 28N W OF 165E. E TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF 23N W OF 165E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N165E 1015 MB. WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITHIN
240 NM OF LOW CENTER NE SEMICIRCLE. E TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 28N160E 23N170E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 25N170E 1015 MB. WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITHIN
240 NM OF LOW CENTER NE SEMICIRCLE. NE TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 28N160E 25N170E 21N179E.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 07N174W 1007 MB MOVING WNW 15 KT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF LOW N SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS FROM 10N TO
04N BETWEEN 175W AND 164W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE
FROM 14N TO 02N BETWEEN 178W AND 164W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N178W 1006 MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF LOW N SEMICIRCLE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 08N177E 1005 MB. SEE WINDS BELOW.

.COLD FRONT 30N166W 27N172W 24N179W MOVING SE 10 KT THENCE A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N170W. NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT N OF FRONT W
OF 172W. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF STATIONARY FRONT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF STATIONARY FRONT W
OF 172W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N162W 26N170W 23N179W 23N170E. NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF FRONT. .48 HOUR
FORECAST FRONT 30N162W TO 18N176E. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS
8 TO 10 FT N OF FRONT.

.E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 10N BETWEEN 166E AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 12N BETWEEN
168E AND 174W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 16N TO 12N
BETWEEN 174E AND 176W.

.SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY 20N170W 06N170W 14N164E 20N164E
20N170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS TO 11 FT WITHIN BOUNDED BY 20N163E
20N175W 13N170W 06N177W 12N163E 20N163E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT BOUNDED BY 18N179W 08N179W
08N172E 15N164E 18N170E 18N179W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ITCZ 09N140W 07N147W 09N155W 08N163W TO 10N170W. SCATTERED
STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF ITCZ W OF 156W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ E OF 156W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 16N TO 00N BETWEEN 160E AND 179W.

$$
.HONOLULU FORECASTER.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Atlantic Ocean: Post-Tropical Cyclone OSCAR 312100Z 39.3N 49.6W, moving NNE ~30.2kt 976mb (NHC FL) – Updated 31 Oct 2018 2300Z (GMT/UTC)

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR

Oscar is a storm equiv to a CAT1 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale

…..OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE…
…HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT…….Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km) –
NHC FL

#FaeroeIslands #Iceland #Scotland #Ireland #NorthernIreland be aware!

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

143825_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

…OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE…
…HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…39.3N 49.6W
ABOUT 540 MI…870 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 975 MI…1570 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar
was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and a motion toward the northeast with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next two to three
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next
several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical
cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Oscar that are affecting Bermuda will
subside tonight. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Oscar. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

 

 

Canadian Hurricane Centre

 

 

No statements currently issued.

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin
POST TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR
IS NOT A THREAT TO BERMUDA

Advisory #20 (last advisory),
6 pm Wed, Oct 31, 2018 (2100 UTC Wed, Oct 31, 2018)
Refresh browser for latest image
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) has passed.
Current Position: 39.3N 49.6W approx. 849 nm NE of Bermuda
Recent Movement: NNE or 30 degrees at 30 kt
Central Pressure: 976 mb / 28.82 in
Max Winds: 65kt gusts 80kt
BWS Tropical Update Bulletins (TUBs), in line with NHC updates, are normally issued every 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). When a tropical watch or warning is in effect for Bermuda, intermediate TUBs are issued at 3-hour intervals between the regular TUBs (06, 12, 18, and 00 UTC). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 31 Oct, 2018 15:00 GMT

Hurricane OSCAR is currently located near 36.6 N 51.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). OSCAR is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OSCAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
  the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 95% in about 93 hours
    Iceland
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 93 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 93 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 93 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Jan Mayen
        probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Probability of tropical storm winds to 69 hours lead

Probability of tropical storm winds to 93 hours lead

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 312033
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT…….230NE 240SE 240SW 280NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 420SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
50 KT…100NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT… 90NE 110SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…330NE 360SE 390SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 100SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 420SE 390SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 150SW 60NW.
34 KT…360NE 450SE 420SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…360NE 480SE 540SW 450NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 49.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OSCAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 

Canada Hurricane Centre

Marine Weather Warnings

FZNT01 KWBC 312139
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2230 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
AMERICAN ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 39.3N 49.6W 976 MB AT 2100 UTC
OCT 31 MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 30 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…230 NM NE QUADRANT AND 280 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 330 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…360 NM NW
QUADRANT AND 420 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 31N TO 44N BETWEEN 37W AND 64W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 46.8N
41.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT…360 NM SE QUADRANT…390
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 270 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 600 NM NE…660 NM SE…960 NM SW…AND 360 NM NW
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 54N BETWEEN
35W AND 54W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR E OF AREA NEAR
54.2N 28.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT…450 NM SE
QUADRANT…420 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 720 NM NE…660 NM SE…1440 NM SW…AND
540 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 48 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 41N TO
58N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 59.5N
15.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 67.0N
2.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…STORM WARNING…
.06 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 64N38W 993 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N37W 999 MB. N OF 64N AND E OF GREENLAND
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN 60 NM E AND 120 NM SE
OF THE GREENLAND COAST WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER E OF AREA 50N31W 1001 MB MOVING E
30 KT AND SECOND CENTER 50N45W 1001 MB MOVING E 30 KT. WITHIN
360 NM SW QUADRANT OF MAIN CENTER AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF
SECOND CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.WITHIN 120 NM W AND SW OF THE GREENLAND COAST S OF 64N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 240 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 40N60W TO
35N75W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 45N45W 1012 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST W AND NW OF A LINE FROM 31N70W TO 40N60W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 43N TO 47N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 51N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.DENSE FOG. 48 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

.LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY NW OF A LINE FROM 62N62W TO 67N53W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 33N75W 1023 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N65W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N54W 1029 MB.

.HIGH 58N62W 1020 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 57N54W 1016 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC OSCAR WELL N OF AREA. COLD FRONT FROM 31N52W TO 22N68W
THEN STATIONARY TO 20N75W. E OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N40W TO
27N47W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. N OF 29N W OF
FRONT TO 60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
A LINE FROM 31N38W TO 23N53W TO 28N62W TO 26N72W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N43W TO 24N50W TO 22N57W
THEN STATIONARY TO 21N66W. N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 37W S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
31N37W TO 27N45W TO 27N57W TO 31N62W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N36W TO 22N48W TO
20N55W THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N64W. N OF FRONT
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 16N TO 26N E OF 39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN MIXED NE AND E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN 18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO 18 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N W OF 89W S WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N93W TO 25N98W. N OF 25N E
OF FRONT TO 85W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. W OF
FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO 22N92W TO 19N96W. W
OF A LINE FROM 23N93W TO 19N96W N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Small Craft Warning

Valid: This afternoon through This evening
Updated: 4:30 pm Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Small Craft Warning
Issued when winds of mean speed 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 9 feet or greater are forecast to affect the marine area within the next 36 hours.
Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Ken Smith

 

FQNT21 EGRR 312000
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 2000 UTC ON WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER 2018
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 2000 UTC ON WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER UNTIL
2000 UTC ON THURSDAY 01 NOVEMBER 2018

STORM WARNING
AT 311200UTC, NEW LOW MOVING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST
EXPECTED 45 NORTH 45 WEST 968 BY 011200UTC. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION AFTER 011600UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS
AT 311200UTC, NEW LOW MOVING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST
EXPECTED 45 NORTH 45 WEST 968 BY 011200UTC. LOW 64 NORTH
28 WEST 990 EXPECTED 63 NORTH 30 WEST 999 BY SAME TIME.
LOW 51 NORTH 38 WEST 999 EXPECTED 48 NORTH 15 WEST 1008
BY THAT TIME. AT 311200UTC, LOW 59 NORTH 13 WEST 989
EXPECTED 62 NORTH 09 WEST 995 BY 011200UTC. LOW 65 NORTH
00 WEST 986 EXPECTED 68 NORTH 09 WEST 989 BY SAME TIME.
HIGH 66 NORTH 47 WEST 1021 DISSIPATING BY THAT TIME
AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

SOLE
NORTHWESTERLY BACKING WESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING VARIABLE
4 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD

SHANNON ROCKALL
WEST OR NORTHWEST 5 OR 6. ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
LATER. SHOWERS. GOOD

BAILEY
CYCLONIC BECOMING NORTHWEST, 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH.
SHOWERS. GOOD

FAEROES SOUTHEAST ICELAND
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, BECOMING WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 OR
6 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD

EAST NORTHERN SECTION
CYCLONIC IN FAR NORTHWEST, OTHERWISE NORTHERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY, 5 TO 7, BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5 LATER
IN WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH FOR A
TIME IN FAR NORTHWEST. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR

WEST NORTHERN SECTION
IN NORTH, CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE
9 UNTIL LATER IN FAR NORTHWEST. ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGH FOR A TIME IN FAR NORTH. RAIN OR
SHOWERS, WITH SNOW IN FAR NORTHWEST. MODERATE OR POOR,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR IN FAR NORTHWEST.
IN SOUTH, NORTHWESTERLY BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5,
BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4 LATER IN FAR SOUTH, THEN
BECOMING EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 OR 6 IN FAR SOUTH.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. SHOWERS, RAIN LATER IN FAR SOUTH.
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR LATER IN FAR SOUTH

EAST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, NORTHWESTERLY 5 OR 6, BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4,
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7 LATER IN WEST. MODERATE OR
ROUGH. OCCASIONAL RAIN, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY, BACKING SOUTHERLY
LATER IN WEST, 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH. OCCASIONAL
RAIN, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY
POOR

WEST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 OR 6, BECOMING
CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8 LATER, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN
WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH
LATER. RAIN OR SHOWERS, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR POOR,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7, BACKING SOUTHERLY 6 TO
GALE 8, INCREASING SEVERE GALE 9 OR STORM 10 LATER IN
SOUTHWEST. ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH OR
HIGH LATER IN SOUTHWEST. RAIN OR SHOWERS, FOG PATCHES.
MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

DENMARK STRAIT
IN AREA NORTH OF 70 NORTH, NORTHERLY 6 TO GALE 8,
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN SOUTH. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH IN SOUTH. OCCASIONAL SNOW, FAIR
LATER. MODERATE OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR, BECOMING GOOD
LATER. MODERATE OR SEVERE ICING WITH TEMPERATURES MS05 TO
MS08.
IN AREA SOUTH OF 70 NORTH, EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 6 TO
GALE 8, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 UNTIL LATER. VERY
ROUGH OR HIGH, BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH LATER.
OCCASIONAL RAIN OR SNOW. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY
VERY POOR. MODERATE OR SEVERE ICING IN NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES MS03 TO MS05

NORTH ICELAND
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7, INCREASING
GALE 8 OR SEVERE GALE 9 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH LATER. OCCASIONAL RAIN OR
SNOW. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR. SEVERE OR
VERY SEVERE ICING DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES MS06 TO MS09.
IN SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7, BECOMING CYCLONIC 6 TO
GALE 8 LATER, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN NORTHWEST.
ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN SOUTHEAST.
OCCASIONAL RAIN, WITH SNOW IN NORTHWEST. MODERATE OR
POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR IN NORTHWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ICING IN NORTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MS02

NORWEGIAN BASIN
SOUTHWESTERLY BACKING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY, 5 TO 7
INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES, DECREASING 3 OR 4 LATER IN
WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

OUTLOOK FOR FOLLOWING 24 HOURS:
VIOLENT STORMS EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL SECTION. STORMS
EXPECTED IN EAST CENTRAL SECTION AND NORTH ICELAND. GALES
OR SEVERE GALES EXPECTED IN SHANNON, ROCKALL, BAILEY,
EAST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST NORTHERN SECTION, DENMARK
STRAIT AND NORWEGIAN BASIN
UNSCHEDULED STORM WARNINGS ARE BROADCAST VIA SAFETYNET
AND IN
BULLETIN WONT54 EGRR AVAILABLE VIA SOME INTERNET AND
FTPMAIL
OUTLETS=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Tanzania hunts homosexuals, threatens ’round-up’ – Reblogged from Erasing 76 Crimes

A Tanzanian official is threatening to launch a round-up of homosexuals starting next week. Paul Makonda, the governor of Dar-es-Salaam, said his anti-gay “ad hoc team” will “get their hands on them next Monday.” To prepare for the round-up, he asked the general public yesterday to call him with the names of homosexuals living in…

via Tanzania hunts homosexuals, threatens ’round-up’ — Erasing 76 Crimes

Philippines/ Taiwan/ China: Severe Tropical Storm YUTU 31W 312100Z near 19.2N 116.9E, moving NNW at 04kt (JTWC) – Updated 30 Oct 2018 2110Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm YUTU 31W
(Rosita in Philippines)

“ROSITA” HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR). – PAGASA

Philippines, Taiwan  and China  beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 31W (Yutu) Warning #42
Issued at 31/2100Z

wp31186

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR 042

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311800Z — NEAR 18.9N 117.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 117.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 19.9N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 20.7N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 21.5N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 22.1N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:

312100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 116.9E.

TROPICAL STORM 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS

OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN

 

 

STS 1826 (Yutu)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 31 October 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 31 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N18°55′ (18.9°)
E116°55′ (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°10′ (20.2°)
E116°30′ (116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°50′ (20.8°)
E116°30′ (116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 2 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N21°25′ (21.4°)
E116°40′ (116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

 

Philippines

PAGASA logoPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Storm”Rosita”
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

Issued at 05:00 pm, 31 October 2018
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at this:00 weather disturbance.)

 

“ROSITA” HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

  • Light to moderate rains due to the trough of Severe Tropical Storm “ROSITA” will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands. Residents in these areas, especially those living near river channels, in low-lying areas and mountainous areas, are advised to take appropriate actions against possible flooding and landslides, coordinate with the local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
  • Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the western seaboards of Luzon and the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon.
Location of Eye/center

At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “ROSITA” was estimated based on all available data at 325 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) (18.3 °N, 117.5 °E )

Movement

Moving West Northwest at 15 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 105 kph

Forecast Position
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 585 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(20.0°N, 116.4°E)
  • 48 Hour(Friday afternoon):585 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(21.2°N, 116.4°E)
Warning Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal
With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final warning for this weather disturbance.
Tropical Cyclone Hourly Position
Date Time Intensity Location Reference
2018-10-31 4:00 AM Severe Tropical Storm 17.1°N 118.7°E 210 km Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan

 

TAIWAN

Tropical Storm YUTU (201826)
Analysis
1800UTC 31 October 2018
Center Location 18.90N 116.90E
Movement  NNW  14km/hr
Minimum Pressure  990 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km

Forecast
12 hours valid at:
0600UTC 01 November 2018
Center Position 20.10N 116.50E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NNW 12 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  990 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 23 m/s
Gust 30 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  180km
Radius of 70% probability circle 60km
24 hours valid at:
1800UTC 01 November 2018
Center Position 20.90N 116.40E
Vector to 24 HR Position
N 7 km/hr
Minimum Pressure  995 hpa
Maximum Wind Speed 20 m/s
Gust 28 m/s
Radius of 15m/s  150km
Radius of 70% probability circle 100km
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER 36 HOURS

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 31 Oct, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm YUTU is currently located near 18.4 N 117.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). YUTU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
   Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

 

WWJP27 RJTD 311800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 25N 128E 23N 128E 19N 120E 23N 115E
27N 120E 25N 128E.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 49N 164E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING ESE 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 46N 174E
MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 160E 50N 160E
60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 170E 45N 170E 45N 160E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 120E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 24N 165E EAST SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 146E TO 34N 168E 33N 174E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1826 YUTU (1826) 990 HPA AT 18.9N 116.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico / Pacific Ocean: Hurricane WILLA 24E 231500Z near 21.4N 106.9W, moving NNE ~4.8kt (NHC FL) – Updated 23 Oct 2018 1535Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE WILLA 24E

WILLA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

……AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO… – NHC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

 

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 26 FEET- JTWC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 231500
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

…AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by this evening. On the forecast
track, the center of Willa will move over Las Islas Marias within
the next few hours, and make landfall within the hurricane warning
area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is forecast today,
Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall tonight
and continuing into Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Maria
today, and will spread into the hurricane warning area along
the coast of mainland Mexico this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring on Las Islas Marias, and will continue to
spread northward along the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area today.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
Swells during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Oct, 2018 15:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane WILLA is currently located near 21.4 N 106.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). WILLA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. WILLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Durango (24.0 N, 104.7 W)
        probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Hurricane 24E (Willa) Warning #14
Issued at 23/1600Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 21.1N 107.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 107.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 22.7N 105.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 24.9N 102.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 26.7N 99.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 106.7W.
HURRICANE 24E (WILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 877 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 23E (VICENTE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ24 KNHC 231500 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN… INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
… NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W…INLAND

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Guatemala/ Mexico / Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm Vicente 23E 201600Z position near 14.3N 93.7W, moving WNW 06kt (JTWC) – Published 20 Oct 2018 1842Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Vicente 23E

…SMALL-SIZED VICENTE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD…
…HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…NHC

Guatemala and Mexico be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 9 FEET

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 23E (Vicente) Warning #05
Issued at 20/1600Z

ep2318

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 14.3N 93.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 93.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 14.2N 94.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 13.5N 96.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 13.3N 98.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 13.8N 100.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 16.5N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 19.0N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 93.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1705 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND
211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E (TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 201444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

…SMALL-SIZED VICENTE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD…
…HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.3N 93.6W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM WSW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI…270 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Vicente.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 93.6 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general track
with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast during the next
36 to 48 hours. After that time, a turn to the northwest is
anticipated.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Through Thursday morning, Vicente is expected to produce
3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches across
southwest Guatemala and the Pacific coast of southern Mexico. This
rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Oct, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VICENTE is currently located near 13.7 N 92.5 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). VICENTE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guatemala
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ23 KNHC 201443 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.2N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 96.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z…DISSIPATED

FZPN02 KWBC 201725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.LOW 51N157W 973 MB MOVING N 20 KT WILL TURN NW AFTER 24 HOURS.
WITHIN 120 NM S AND SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 TO
32 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT…AND 180 NM W AND SW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM NE…600 NM SE…360 NM SW…AND 180 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 24 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N161W 970 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
52N TO 60N BETWEEN 143W AND 158W AND 180 NM E OF FRONT FRONT
FROM 59N141W TO 53N141W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 22
FT…EXCEPT E OF FRONT SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 60N161W 987 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 420 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 53N174W 990 MB MOVING SE 30 KT. WITHIN 480 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N159W 989 MB. WITHIN 480 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N149W 990 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM AND 720 NM
S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 19 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N165E 1006 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND 240
NM E QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N180W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N162E 1006 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE AND 240
NM N QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N175E 1004 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 53N137W 996 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
58N140W TO LOW TO 53N137W TO 47N138W TO 40N142W. WITHIN 240 NM E
OF FRONT S OF LOW AND 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF LOW WINDS 25 TO 35
KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT…HIGHEST N OF LOW.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 38N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW INLAND 64N146W 993 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
N OF 55N BETWEEN 136W AND 150W AREA OF SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 19 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND WITH ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 58N166W 993 MB MOVING SW 10 KT. BETWEEN 180 NM AND 420 NM W
QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N170W 995 MB. WITHIN 300 NM W QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH
LOW 60N161W IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.HIGH 48N135W 1028 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH INLAND NEAR 56N125W 1026 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MOVED INLAND.

.HIGH 39N133W 1025 MB MOVING S 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N135W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH NEAR 30N173E 1022 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 30N179E 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH 42N165E 1022 MB MOVING SE 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N178E 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N165W 1021 MB.

.FORECASTER ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM WILLA NEAR 14.8N 105.7W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
20 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 120 NM SE
AND 75 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 15.3N 107.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND
180 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 16.6N 108.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 75 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 17.7N 109.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 19.0N 109.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 22.0N 107.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 14.3N 93.6W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
20 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. REMAINDER WATERS WITHIN 120 NM
SE AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 13.5N 96.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OF GREATER
WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER AREA
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 13.8N 100.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 20 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 45 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 16.5N 103.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE NEAR 19.0N 106.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N128W TO 02N120W TO 03.4S113W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N121W TO 01N112W TO 03.4S103W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S118W TO 02N110W TO
03.4S91W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W…INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 16N95W TO 14N95.5W…
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SAT OCT 20…

.TROPICAL STORM VICENTE…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30
NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W.

.TROPICAL STORM WILLA…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
TO 19N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 13N91W. IT RESUMES FROM 14N95W TO
15N102W. THEN RESUMES FROM 14N110W TO 08N122W. ITCZ FROM 08N122W
TO 08N127W TO BEYOND 11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
03N TO 08N E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N
TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 132W.

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 21 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 22 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 09N162E 1009 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER NE CIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 15N TO 03N W
OF 169E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF FORECAST AREA NEAR 10N157W 1007
MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM OF
CENTER NE SEMICIRCLE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 12N156E 1004 MB. ASSOCIATED WINDS
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.LOW NEAR 11N147W 1008 MB MOVING NW SLOWLY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 15N TO 05N BETWEEN 150W AND 140W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 13N149W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 14N148W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
16N144W. ASSOCIATED WINDS INCLUDED BELOW.

.TROUGH FROM 26N154W TO 30N153W NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED
TSTMS INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 25N145W TO 30N142W MOVING NW SLOWLY. ASSOCIATED
TSTMS INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH JUST N OF FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N174E 1022 MB MOVING E
SLOWLY. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO 28N179W TO 29N174W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 30N179W 1021 MB. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO
30N170W AND FROM HIGH TO 23N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 28N174E 1021 MB. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO
25N164E.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N149W TO 07N157W TO 08N164W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH
AXIS.

.ITCZ FROM 08N164W TO 08N175W TO 05N175E. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE.

.OTHERWISE WINDS E TO NE 20 TO 25 KT FROM 20N TO 14N BETWEEN
165E AND 179W…AND ALSO FROM 17N TO 13N BETWEEN 147W AND 140W.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS INCREASING TO SE TO S 20 TO 25 KT OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 24N W OF 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS E TO NE 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 14N
BETWEEN 150W AND 140W. ALSO WINDS S TO SW 20 TO 25 KT OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N W OF 167E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS SE TO NE 20 TO 30 KT FROM 18N TO 14N
BETWEEN 155W AND 140W. REMAINING WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR
LESS.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 19N TO 03N BETWEEN 162E AND 177W…AND
ALSO FROM 18N TO 02N BETWEEN 150W AND 140W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 17N TO 11N BETWEEN 152W
AND 142W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 21N TO 11N BETWEEN 154W
AND 140W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 09N150W TO 06N159W TO 07N168W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE.

.OTHERWISE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N146W TO 23N152W TO 17N162W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 17N TO 05N BETWEEN 170E AND
168W…AND ALSO OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 23N W OF 164E.
$$

.FORECASTER BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Yemen/ Oman/ Arabian Sea: Tropical Deep Depression LUBAN 140900Z near 15.9N 51.7°E, moving WNW ~8.09kt/15kmph (RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 14 Oct 2018 1612Z (GMT/UTC)

Deep Depression LUBAN

Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen – IMD

Impacting Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea

INDIA

 

 

IMD

India Meteorological Department
Earth System Science Organisation
(Ministry of Earth Sciences


BULLETIN NO. : 61 (ARB 04/2018)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1630 HOURS IST DATED: 14.10.2018
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)
TO: CONTROL ROOM, NDM, MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS (FAX.NO. 23093750)
CONTROL ROOM NDMA (FAX.NO. 26701729)
CABINET SECRETARIAT (FAX.NO.23012284, 23018638)
PS TO HON’BLE MINISTER FOR S & T AND EARTH SCIENCES (FAX NO.23316745)
SECRETARY, MOES, (FAX NO. 24629777)
H.Q. (INTEGRATED DEFENCE STAFF AND CDS) (FAX NO. 23005137/23005147)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, DOORDARSHAN (23421101)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, AIR (23421105, 23421219)
PIB MOES (FAX NO. 23389042)
UNI (FAX NO. 23355841)
D.G. NATIONAL DISASTER RESPONSE FORCE (NDRF) (FAX NO. 24363261)
DIRECTOR, PUNCTUALITY, INDIAN RAILWAYS (FAX NO. 23388503)
CHIEF SECRETARY, TAMILNADU (FAX NO. 044-25672304)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KERALA (FAX NO. 0471-2327176)
ADMINISTRATOR, LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS (FAX NO. 04896-262184)
ADMINISTRATOR, UNION TERRITORY OF DAMAN & DIU AND DADRA NAGAR HAVELI (0260-2230775)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KARNATAKA (FAX NO. 080-22258913)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GOA (FAX NO. 0832-2415201)
CHIEF SECRETARY, MAHARASHTRA (FAX NO. 022- 22028594)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GUJARAT (FAX NO. 079-23250305)
Sub: Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen
The Cyclonic Storm ‘LUBAN’ over coastal Yemen moved further west-northwestwards during
past 06 hours with a speed of 15 kmph, weakened into a deep depression and lay centered at 1430
hrs IST of today, the 14th October 2018 over Yemen near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 51.7°E, about
40 km west-southwest of Al-Ghaidah (Yemen). It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and
weaken further into a depression during next 6 hours.
(i) Wind warning
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely over coastal areas of
east Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea during next
06 hours and it is very likely to decrease thereafter.
(ii) Sea condition
The sea condition will be rough to very rough over westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south
Oman and Yemen coasts and also over adjoining areas of Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours. It
will improve rapidly thereafter.
(iii) Fishermen Warning
The fishermen are advised not to venture into westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south Oman
and Yemen coasts and also into Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST 14th October, 2018.
(Naresh Kumar)
Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi
Copy to: CRS, Pune/ RSMC Guwahati/ ACWC Chennai/ Kolkata/ Mumbai/MC Goa/ Thiruvanathapuram/ Bengaluru/ CWC Ahmedabad.

SOURCE (.PDF File): http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

OMAN

Alert No. (6)
Tropical System in Arabian Sea
Category: Tropical Storm (Luban)
Issuing time: 11 pm
Date: 13th October 2018
Issuing No: 10
Due to potential of heavy rainfall accompanied by fresh winds and probability of flash floods over Governorate of Dhofar, The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices to take fully precautions and to avoid the low lying areas ,wadi`s and riding the sea during this period and to follow its latest weather bulletins.
Latest updates:
Center of tropical storm (Luban): lat. 15.0 N and Long 53.4 E
Distance from Salalah city: 240 km
Wind speed around the center: 45 to 55 Knots (83 – 102 Km/h)
The tropical storm (Luban) continues moving west towards Yemen’s coasts. Dhofar Governorate is likely continuing to be affected by heavy rain, thundershower at times on Sunday, and 14th of October 2018 with easterly to southeasterly fresh wind of 30-45 Knots (56-83 km/h) and gusting to gale wind over mountainous areas. The sea continues to be rough state with maximum wave of 6 to 8 meters.
The chances for indirect impact on the southern parts of al-Wusta Governorate continues with scattered rain and easterly to southeasterly moderate winds of 20 to 25 Knots (37-46 km/h) on Sunday , 14th of October 2018.
The alert will be updated every 12 hours.

download

 

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 05A (Luban) Warning #26 Final Warning
Issued at 14/0900Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 15.8N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 16.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF (WTIO31 PGTW 140900).//
NNNN

Other

DrR Yemen L

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 140900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 14 OCTOBER 2018.

PART:-I NIL
PART:-II

THE CYCLONIC STORM LUBAN OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH
AND CROSSED YEMEN COAST NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 52.2
DEG E ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH DURING 1100 – 1130 HRS IST OF
TODAY WITH AN ESTIMATED SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 70-80 KMPH
GUSTING TO 90 KMPH. IT LAY CENTERED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE
14TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER COASTAL YEMEN NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 52.1 DEG E, ABOUT 20 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH (YEMEN). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 6 HOURS.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N
SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 72 DEG E NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E : NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 60 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 60 DEG E 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E:
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 14 DEG N (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N : W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-W OF 55 DEG E :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: W OF 55 DEG E :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)E OF 88 DEG E TO S OF 6 DEG N
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 89 DEG E E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 69 DEG E S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE W OF 86 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 14 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 14 DEG N 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 15 DEG N SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 18 DEG N FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
II)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N 4-3 NM RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

++++

OMAN

OMAN MARINE FORECAST FOR COASTAL WATERS

ISSUED AT 0600 ON 14/10/2018

AND VALID FROM 14/0600 TO 14/1800 UTC

REGIONAL SYNOPSIS: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SULTANATE.

WEATHER: CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS

WITH CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING: ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL

STORM LUBAN ALONG THE ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS & VISIBILITY DETAILS FOLLOWS:

MUSANDAM WEST MUSANDAM EAST

WIND: VRB 05-12 KT WIND: SE/S 06-12 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT 1.25 M

SWELL: NE 0.25 M SWELL: S/SE 0.25 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

BAYAH-MUSCAT MUSCAT VICINITY

WIND: NE TO VRB 03-10 KT WIND: SE TO NE 03-12 KT

SEA: SLT 0.5 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: E 0.5 KT

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MUSCAT-SUR SUR-MASIRAH

WIND: NE TO VRB 02-08 KT WIND: NE TO SE 08-18 KT

SEA: SLT 0.75 M SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: S 1.5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN.

MASIRAH-MADRAKAH MADRAKAH-ALJAZIR

WIND: E/SE 10-20 KT WIND: E/SE 15-25 KT

SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M SEA: ROUGH 3.0 M

SWELL: S 1.5-2.5 M SWELL: SE 3.0 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.

ALJAZIR-SADAH SADAH-DHALKUT

WIND: E/SE 15-35 KT WIND: SE/E 25-40 KT

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M

SWELL: E 2-4 M SWELL: E/SE 3-5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS WITH CHANCE OF

HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING:

ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL STORM LUBAN ALONG THE

ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: AL-SHEDHANY. FORECASTER TELEPHONE: 24354661

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

United States: Major Hurricane Michael CAT4 10/1900Z 30.4N 85.3W, moving NNE 15mph/ ~13.03kt 922mb (NHC FL) – Updated 10 Oct 2018 1935Z (GMT/UTC)

 

MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL

Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

…MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE… NHC

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

 

National Hurricane Center

152003_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind1

STORM SURGE WARNING GRAPHIC (Link)

TORNADOES (see below)

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101737
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…919 MB…27.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Alabama/Florida border.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of Chassahowitzka.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of
Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward
the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday
through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael
will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and
across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight.
Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United
States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic
coast away from the United States on Friday.

Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United
States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the
western Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently
reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near
Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to
129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.41 inches).

A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University
of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL…9-14 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL…6-9 ft
Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL…6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL…4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay…2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck…2-4 ft

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue
to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and
tonight.

With the landfall of Michael’s eye occurring, everyone in the
landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm
of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye
passes!

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday…

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia…3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast…1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida
Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.
This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern
South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100848
TCPAT4

000
WTNT64 KNHC 101854
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…2 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE…
…EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST
OF PANAMA CITY…
…LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE…

Radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is moving inland over
portions of Bay and Calhoun counties in the Florida Panhandle.
Everyone in these areas is reminded not to venture out into the
relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very
quickly as the eye passes!

Recently reported wind gusts include:

Tyndall Air Force Base: 119 mph (191 km/h)
Florida State University Panama City Campus: 116 mph (187 km/h)
University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 104 mph (167 km/h)
Panama City Treatment Plant: 94 mph (151 km/h)
Panama City Beach National Ocean Service: 78 mph (126 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 7.7 feet of inundation above
ground level.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT…1900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.4N 85.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM ENE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…922 MB…27.22 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

SPC

TORNADOES

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected…Portions of central and southern GA…north
FL…and southern SC

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 101729Z – 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent

SUMMARY…A tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon across
portions of central and southeast Georgia, and perhaps including
parts of north Florida and southern South Carolina. A tornado
threat will spread to the northeast as Hurricane Michael tracks
toward southwest Georgia by early evening, after making landfall
early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION…Trends in mosaic radar imagery suggest a new outer rain
band may be developing across southeast into south-central GA (from
approximately 25 WSW KSSI to 25 WSW KMCN). The combination of
high-moisture-content air (surface dew points in the middle 70s) and
surface heating, given the presence of filtered sunshine through
high thin cirrus on the northeast periphery of Michael, is resulting
in moderate instability. Meanwhile, trends in low-level shear per
VAD profile at Valdosta, GA adjusted for storm motions of embedded
cells in the rain bands indicated steady strengthening, with 0-1 km
SRH approaching 300 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear around 40 kt. This
strengthening trend is expected to persist through the afternoon and
evening and expand northward and east some across central and
eastern GA into adjacent southern SC, and perhaps north FL, as
Michael tracks toward southwest GA. This high low-level shear
environment favors an increasing tornado threat and the need for a
tornado watch to the north and northeast of WW 406.

..Peters/Guyer.. 10/10/2018

…Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…CHS…CAE…JAX…FFC…TAE…BMX…

LAT…LON 31888448 31508509 33078472 33558396 33538277 33418140
33398098 32528062 31678085 30768128 30208157 29938224
29858269 30928290 31848305 31888448

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2018 17:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane MICHAEL is currently located near 29.9 N 85.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). MICHAEL is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MICHAEL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 7 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 70% in about 67 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 43 hours
    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 43 hours
    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 43 hours
    Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 19 hours
    Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 31 hours
    Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 43 hours
    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 7 hours
    Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 31 hours
    Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 43 hours
    Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 43 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 67 hours
    Atlanta (33.8 N, 84.4 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 19 hours
    Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 43 hours
    St John’s (47.5 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 67 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 50% in about 67 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 19 hours
    Fredericksburg (38.2 N, 77.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 43 hours
    Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 43 hours
    Belmar (40.1 N, 74.1 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 43 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 67 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 67 hours
    Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 43 hours
    Baltimore (39.5 N, 76.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 43 hours
    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 67 hours
    Roanoke (37.0 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 31 hours
    Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 43 hours
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 43 hours
    New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 43 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

OTHER

Contact Numbers

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZNT24 KNHC 101452
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-110300-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS…Major Hurricane Michael near 29.4N 86.0W 928 mb at
11 AM EDT moving NNE at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt
with gusts to 150 kt. Michael is expected to make landfall as a
Category 4 hurricane along the central panhandle of Florida this
afternoon, then accelerate off to the NE tonight. Conditions
will gradually improve in the NE Gulf Thu through Fri as Michael
moves quickly towards the Cape Hatteras and Tidewater areas. A
cold front will push into the NW Gulf behind the exiting Michael
tonight and Thu and reach from the Florida Panhandle to west-
central Gulf by early Sat.

$$

GMZ011-110300-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in E swell.
.TONIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E swell.
.THU…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ013-110300-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. W of 90W, NW winds 10 to
15 kt. Elsewhere, W to NW winds 45 to 50 kt, diminishing to
35 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft in NE to E swell,
subsiding to 11 to 17 ft in NE to E swell towards evening.
Scattered squalls and thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt W of 90W, and W to NW 20 to
25 kt elsewhere. Seas 9 to 13 ft in NE to E swell, subsiding to
6 to 8 ft in NE swell late.
.THU…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ015-110300-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. S of 27N, S to SW winds
25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Elsewhere, SW winds 100 to 120 kt,
diminishing to 45 to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 to 36 ft,
subsiding to 18 to 27 ft in the afternoon. Frequent squalls and
thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SW to W winds
25 to 30 kt. S of 27N, seas 7 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, seas 10 to
16 ft, subsiding to 7 to 11 ft late. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
.THU…W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-110300-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…SE to S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NE towards
evening. Seas 6 to 9 ft in NE to E swell.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E
swell.
.THU…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ019-110300-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE swell.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell.
.THU…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ021-110300-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W swell.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW to N
swell.
.THU…SW to W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NW to N swell.
.THU NIGHT…W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ023-110300-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE swell.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE swell.
Scattered showers.
.THU…S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E in the afternoon. Seas
4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers.
.THU NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ025-110300-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018
.TODAY…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in N to NE swell.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in N to NE
swell.
.THU…E winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to N to NE late in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft in N to NE swell. Scattered showers.
.THU NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

Forecaster Stripling

000
FZNT02 KNHC 101602
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 12.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MICHAEL NEAR 29.4N 86.0W 928 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 10
MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…80 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 120 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE…
240 NM SE QUADRANT AND 210 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 44 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 24N E OF 89W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 24N WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT
IN N TO NE SWELL. FREQUENT SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E
OF 88W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL INLAND NEAR 33.6N
82.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…60
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. N OF 28N E OF 86W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL OVER ATLC
WATERS NEAR 38.7N 71.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT…240
NM SE QUADRANT…180 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT.
OVER GULF WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL NEAR 45.5N
52.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL NEAR 49.0N
29.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL NEAR
50.0N 13.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

…ATLC HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE LESLIE NEAR 27.8N 42.3W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 10
MOVING SSE OR 150 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE
QUADRANT…90 NM SE QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 240 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT…
270 NM SE QUADRANT…240 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 540 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM
NW AND 270 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 17N E OF 63W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LESLIE NEAR 28.4N 39.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 360 SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36
FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH NADINE…
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 16N E OF 59W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LESLIE NEAR 30.7N 31.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 1200 NM N
AND 360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. EXCEPT AS NOTED
WITH NADINE…ELSEWHERE N OF 12N E OF 52W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 31.5N 23.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 29.5N 22.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 27.0N 26.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

…ATLC TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEAR 12.6N 31.6W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
10 MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE
QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEAR 14.6N 32.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND
30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NE AND 30
NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM FROM 11N TO
20N E OF 37W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEAR 16.5N 35.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM N QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE
AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 20N E OF 42W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE NEAR 17.5N 39.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC N OF 26N W OF 79W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT ALONG
31N. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS BETWEEN 71W AND
80W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH MICHAEL…N OF 29N W OF
75W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH MICHAEL…N OF 30N BETWEEN
73W AND 76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Bay Of Bengal: VSCS TITLI 10/0900Z near 17.2°N 85.5°E, moving N ~9.71kt 990hpa (RSMC New Delhi, India) – Published 10 Oct 2018 1155Z (GMT/UTC)

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TITLI

TITLI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24 FEET – JTWC

INDIA

RSMC NEW DELHI

ftrack

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 20
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) NATIONAL CENTRE
FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1030 UTC OF 10.10.2018 BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10.10.2018.
(A) VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, ‘LUBAN’ OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA:
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT
0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, NEAR LATITUDE 14.4°N AND
LONGITUDE 58.7°E, ABOUT 570 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316), 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS (41494) AND 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AL-GHAIDAH (41398). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS YEMEN & SOUTH
OMAN COASTS DURING NEXT 4 DAYS.
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER 2018, THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM IS T4.5. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AS BETWEEN LATITUDE 11.0°N & 18.5°N AND BETWEEN LONGITUDE
55.5°E & 61.0°E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93°C. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 984 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 75 KNOTS.
STATE OF SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
10.10.18/0900 14.4/58.7 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1200 14.5/58.6 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1800 14.6/58.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0000 14.7/58.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0600 14.8/57.8 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/1800 14.9/57.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/0600 15.0/56.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/1800 15.1/55.4 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13.10.18/0600 15.2/54.4 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13.10.18/1800 15.2/52.9 120-130 GUSTING TO 145 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
14.10.18/0600 15.2/51.1 110-120 GUSTING TO 130 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
14.10.18/1800 15.0/48.3 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
(B) VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘TITLI’ OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL:
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘TITLI’ OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 18 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY
CANTERED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2°N AND LONGITUDE 85.5°E, ABOUT 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR
(43049) AND 190 KM SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (43105). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
CROSS ODISHA & ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN GOPALPUR &
KALINGAPATNAM AROUND MORNING OF 11TH OCTOBER. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARDS, MOVE TOWARDS GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ACROSS ODISHA AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
AS PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER, INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS T 4.5. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.5°N & 21.0°N AND LONGITUDE 81.5°E & 90.0°E.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93°C. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
990 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH
AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
10.10.18/0900 17.2/85.5 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1200 17.4/85.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1800 18.0/85.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0000 18.6/84.9 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0600 19.3/84.8 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/1800 20.5/85.5 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/0600 21.8/87.0 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP DEPRESSION
12.10.18/1800 23.1/88.7 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 1 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE
THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 2 FROM 12TH OCTOBER AND WILL REMAIN IN SAME PHASE TILL 15TH .
AMPLITUDE WILL REMAIN MORE THAN 1 TILL 15TH OCTOBER. IT WILL BECOME LESS THAN 1 FROM 15TH
ONWARDS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION &
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (AS) DURING THE PERIOD 10TH-
15TH, IT WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) DURING 12TH-15TH.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER AS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
IS 29-310C OVER SOUTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL AS. IT IS AROUND 26-290C OVER WESTCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AS. THE SST IS DECREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS OMAN COAST. HOWEVER IT IS
INCREASING TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2
OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AS. IT IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 TO THE NORTH OF
17.00 N AND WEST OF 60.00E. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS AROUND 300 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VORTICITY ZONE IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOW ABOUT 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LOW (05-10 KT) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALSO ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND THERE IS COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION NEAR
OMAN AND YEMEN COASTS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 170 N. HENCE,AS THE
SYSTEM MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS IT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR,
WARMER SST & LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM LAND AREAS.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 30-310C OVER WESTCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BOB. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF SOUTH &
CENTRAL BOB AND BECOMING LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH BOB. LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY HAS NOW INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 250 X10-5 SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
VORTICITY ZONE IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 X 10-5 SEC-1 TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LOW (05-10 KT) TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE . THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION TO THE CORE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 180 N. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY INDICATING NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NCMRWF UNIFIED MODELS (NCUM),
NCMRWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (NEPS), IMD GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS), NCEP GFS,
SUGGEST GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARDS SOUTH ODISHA COAST AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
AND NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AFTER LANDFALL.
(SUNITHA DEVI)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM (LUBAN)
14.4N/58.7 at 0900 UTC
Very SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM (TITLI)
17.2N/85.5E at 0900 UTC
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2018 6:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm TITLI is currently located near 17.0 N 85.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). TITLI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TITLI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Puri (19.9 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06B (Titli) Warning #05
Issued at 10/0900Z

io0618

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 17.0N 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 85.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.2N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 19.4N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 20.1N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 21.0N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 85.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED
A 18-NM RAGGED EYE AS IT MAINTAINED EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS THAT WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION THAT IS ADJUSTED FOR
PARALLAX AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IN THE 100428Z
DIRECT ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM OBJECTIVE
AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.1 TO T5.0 AND REFLECTS
THE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 18 WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF INDIA NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RECEDES.
THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 85 KNOTS NEAR LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 101130

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1100 UTC 10 OCTOBER 2018.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, TITLI IS BEING MONITORED BY THE
COASTAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AT VISAKHAPATNAM, GOPALPUR AND
PARADIP. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM \U2018TITLI\U2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 18 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND
LAY CANTERED AT 1430 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 85.5
DEG E, ABOUT 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR (ODISHA) AND 190 KM
SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA
PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN GOPALPUR AND KALINGAPATNAM AROUND MORNING OF
11TH OCTOBER. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RE-CURVE
NORTHEASTWARDS, MOVE TOWARDS GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ACROSS ODISHA AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY (.)

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY
CENTERED AT 1430 HRS IST 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA, NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 58.7 DEG E, ABOUT 570 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN), 550 KM EASTNORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA
ISLANDS (YEMEN) AND 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AL-GHAIDAH (YEMEN). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS YEMEN AND SOUTH OMAN COASTS DURING NEXT 4 DAYS (.)

PART:-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N :
SW/W-LY 35/45 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO E OF 66 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N :
SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC SW-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE E OF 59 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E TO THE N OF 5 DEG N: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 60 DEG E TO N OF 6 DEG N 3.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 21 DEG N TO W OF 67 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N OF E OF 66 DEG E: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)N OF 21 DEG N: W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 65 DEG E TO S OF 19 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-6.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N OF E OF 66 DEG E: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N: W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 18 DEG N :OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 91 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 91 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 13 DEG N: OVER14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2.5-6.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 25/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
II)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: -6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.
  

Japan/ South Korea/ China/ North Korea: Tropical Storm KONG-REY 30W 041500Z position nr 26.1N 126.5E, moving NNW 12kt (JTWC) – Updated 04 Oct 2018 1525Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KONG-REY 30W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 30W (Kong-rey) Warning #27
Issued at 04/1500Z

wp30181

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 30W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 25.5N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 126.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 28.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 31.0N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 34.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 38.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 43.6N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 126.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND
051500Z.//
NNNN

Click here for source

 

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 4 October 2018

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 4 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°55′ (25.9°)
E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 650 km (350 NM)
E 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 4 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N26°05′ (26.1°)
E126°25′ (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 650 km (350 NM)
E 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°35′ (26.6°)
E126°05′ (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°00′ (28.0°)
E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°55′ (30.9°)
E126°00′ (126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

Himawari-8

(30 minute updates)

 

No.25 KONG-REY

Issued at(KST) : 2018.10.04. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2018.10.04. 12:00 Analysis 25.4 126.7 970 35 126 420
(WSW 350)
Strong Medium NNW 21
2018.10.05. 00:00 Forecast 27.6 125.3 970 35 126 410
(W 335)
Strong Medium NNW 25 48
2018.10.05. 12:00 Forecast 30.3 125.0 975 32 115 400
(WNW 320)
Normal Medium N 24 110
2018.10.06. 00:00 Forecast 33.3 127.0 980 29 104 365
(WNW 285)
Normal Medium NE 34 140
2018.10.06. 12:00 Forecast 36.8 131.9 985 27 97 330
(NW 250)
Normal Medium ENE 52 170
2018.10.07. 00:00 Forecast 40.4 138.6 990 24 86 320
(WNW 240)
Weak Medium ENE 57 210
2018.10.07. 12:00 Forecast 43.3 149.7 990 24 86 ENE 81

 

※ It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KONG-REY is currently located near 25.5 N 126.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). KONG-REY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

Other

DocR K2
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1825 KONG-REY (1825) 965 HPA
AT 25.5N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 28.0N 125.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 30.9N 126.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 38.3N 132.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 43.4N 149.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon TRAMI 291500Z nr 28.7N 129.1E, moving NE 18kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Sep 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon TRAMI

TRAMI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Okinawa, Ryukyu Islands and mainland Japan beware!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 28W (Trami) Warning #36
Issued at 29/1500Z

 

 

 

wp28183

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 27.9N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 128.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 30.9N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 35.2N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 42 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 40.9N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 129.1E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

 

TY 1824 (Trami)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 29 September 2018

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 29 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N27°55′ (27.9°)
E128°20′ (128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SW 650 km (350 NM)
NE 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 29 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N28°05′ (28.1°)
E128°25′ (128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SW 650 km (350 NM)
NE 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 29 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N29°10′ (29.2°)
E129°30′ (129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area E 310 km (170 NM)
W 260 km (140 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N30°40′ (30.7°)
E131°10′ (131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area E 350 km (190 NM)
W 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N32°35′ (32.6°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (27 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area E 390 km (210 NM)
W 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°50′ (34.8°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area SE 430 km (230 NM)
NW 370 km (200 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

 

eng_logo_1

Typhoon Information

No.24 TRAMI

Issued at(KST) : 2018.09.29. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2018.09.29. 12:00 Analysis 27.8 128.4 950 43 155 390
(WNW 300)
Strong Medium NE 28
2018.09.30. 12:00 Forecast 36.0 138.2 965 37 133 360
(NW 270)
Strong Medium NE 54 110
2018.10.01. 12:00 Forecast 46.1 153.9 985 27 97 ENE 72

※ It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2018 12:00 GMT

Typhoon TRAMI is currently located near 27.9 N 128.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). TRAMI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TRAMI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DrR T29
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/
WTJP31 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 128.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 31.5N 131.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 36.5N 137.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


 
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/ US/ East Pacific: MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA 20E 282100Z 17.7N 117.8W, moving NW ~4.85kt 955mb (NHC FL) – Updated 28 Sep 2018 2120Z (GMT/UTC)

MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA (20E)

Rosa is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

…ROSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING…NHC

MEXICO and US BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET – JTWC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

 

 

 

878
WTPZ35 KNHC 282054
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

…ROSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.7N 117.8W
ABOUT 625 MI…1005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB…28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Rosa.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 117.8 West. Rosa is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
with a slight increase in forward speed by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
anticipated over the next few days, and Rosa could become a
tropical storm by the end of the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Hurricane 20E (Rosa) Warning #14
Issued at 28/1600Z

 

WTPN31 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
281200Z — NEAR 17.0N 117.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 117.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 17.8N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 19.2N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 21.0N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 23.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 26.7N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 31.6N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 117.6W.
HURRICANE 20E (ROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 942 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ25 KNHC 282053 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT…….110NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 118.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 118.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 118.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 118.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.7N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FZPN02 KWBC 281725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 30.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW W OF AREA 42N156E 987 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 33N TO
46N W OF 175E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N161E 984 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 23 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 42N173E 984 MB
AND SECOND CENTER 44N179W 985 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S AND 300 NM SW
QUADRANTS OF FIRST CENTER WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 47N W OF 168W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10
TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N168W 981 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE…480 NM
E…300 NM S AND SW…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 11 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 660 NM SE SEMICIRCLE…AND
360 NM NW AND N QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 55N178E 991 MB MOVING SE 05 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
360 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N178W 988 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND 300 NM
S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW
NW OF AREA 58N175E BELOW.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 57N171W 990 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
600 NM E AND 480 NM N QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16
FT…HIGHEST NEAR 54N161W. ELSEWHERE N OF 56N W OF 164W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 60N174E 984 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 360 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 55N165W TO 61N177W WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 58N175E 989 MB. WITHIN 300 NM
NE AND 240 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 43N158W 986 MB MOVING N 20 KT. WITHIN 660 NM NE…360 NM
SE…300 NM SW…AND 240 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
8 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 59N BETWEEN 143W AND 163W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N161W 990 MB. WITHIN 480 NM N AND NE
QUADRANTS…AND 240 NM S AND SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 45N TO 57N BETWEEN 146W AND
170W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N174W 999 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 300 NM E AND NE OF A LINE FROM 57N166W TO 62N174W WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 40N156W 999 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N151W 996 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S…360 NM
W…AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE 31N TO 45N BETWEEN 147W AND 167W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 40N143W 1000 MB.
WITHIN 420 NM SW AND W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 45N BETWEEN 141W AND 155W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 37N177W 1004 MB. FROM 31N TO 40N
BETWEEN 160W AND 179E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 21 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W AREA
OF N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 46N TO 53N W OF 180W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 150 NM NE OF
A LINE FROM 48N162W TO 55N165W TO 58N172W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
40N168E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 54N TO 57N BETWEEN 157W AND
167W AND WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 58N168W TO 62N175W TO 65N170W
TO 62N167W TO 58N168W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 41N177W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 61N TO 64N BETWEEN 167W AND
173W AND WITHIN 90 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 45N162W TO 49N167W.

.HIGH 53N140W 1027 MB MOVING NW 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 60N149W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N148W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 30N179W 1021 MB MOVING SE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH 42N178E 1014 MB MOVING SE 30 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 30.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ROSA NEAR 17.2N 117.5W 942 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 28
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT
GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE…90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 210 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 39 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ROSA NEAR 19.2N 118.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 44 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ROSA NEAR 23.0N 118.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM W SEMICIRCLE…130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 140 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER OPEN WATERS WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 16N
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ROSA NEAR 26.7N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ROSA NEAR 26.7N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW PRES NEAR 11N97W 1005 MB. WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
11N98W 1004 MB. WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
11N98W 1003 MB. FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W E WINDS 30 TO
35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
12N100W 1003 MB. FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W E WINDS 3O
TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W…INCLUDING GULF
OF TEHAUNTEPEC…N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REAMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28…

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER
OF ROSA.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
A SEGEMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 11N97W TO 15N107W. ANOTHER SEGMENT REACHES FROM
13N124W TO 09N136W. ITCZ CONTINUES W FROM 09N136W TO BEYOND 140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR
11N97W.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 28 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 29 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 30 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW…DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE…12N152W 1007 MB MOVING W 15
KT. TROUGH FROM 14N150W TO LOW TO 03N162W MOVING W 15 KT. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 210 NM N AND NE QUADRANTS OF LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…13N158W 1006
MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW…LIKELY TROPICAL CYCLONE…13N164W 1004
MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT…POSSIBLY TROPICAL STORM FORCE…WITHIN
270 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.

.LOW 10N180E 1009 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 13N168W TO LOW
TO 14N164E MOVING W SLOWLY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS
WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH E OF LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TSTMS ELSEWHERE S OF 14N BETWEEN 168W AND 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N175E 1010 MB. TROUGH FROM 14N170W TO
LOW TO 14N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N166E 1010 MB. TROUGH FROM 11N177W TO
LOW.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N148W TO 24N154W…CONTINUING AS A TROUGH TO
18N159W. COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING E SLOWLY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF TROUGH…AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF
FRONT N OF 28N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N143W TO 25N152W.
TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH FROM 27N140W TO
25N158W.

.NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 172W AND
178E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT FROM 30N164E TO 29N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N178E TO 27N160E.

48 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT FROM 30N148W TO 29N159W.

.HIGH JUST E OF AREA 29N139W 1020 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. RIDGE
FROM HIGH TO 24N151W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 25N145W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 30N180E 1021 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. RIDGES FROM HIGH TO
28N160E…AND FROM HIGH TO 26N155W…MOVING S SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 27N171W 1020 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 28N163W 1019 MB.

.OTHERWISE…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST
AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 157W AND 174W…AND FROM 13N TO
18N BETWEEN 147W AND 152W
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 155W
AND 160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 13 FT FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 158W
AND 167W. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT N OF A LINE FROM 30N180E TO 26N160E.

.OTHERWISE…SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.

$$

.FORECASTER HOUSTON. HONOLULU HI.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Lesser Antilles/ Carribean: Tropical Storm KIRK 27/1800Z 14.0N 59.9W, moving WNW ~11.87kt 1000mb (NHC FL) – Published 27 Sep 2018 1830Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KIRK

…KIRK ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

175022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

868
WTNT32 KNHC 271731
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
200 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

…KIRK ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.0N 59.9W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 90 MI…140 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 59.9 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk
will move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm
Warning area by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of
days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and
into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area in a few hours, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area in a few hours.

RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and
Saturday.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Sep, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KIRK is currently located near 13.0 N 57.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). KIRK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Barbados
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Martinique
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    St. Lucia
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Dominica
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
    Guadeloupe
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Antigua and Barbuda
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours
    Montserrat
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 271451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018
1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 59.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 59.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.3N 61.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.9N 63.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 67.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean/ UK: Post Tropical Cyclone Helene 16/1500Z 43.8N 25.7W, moving N 25 kt 989mb (NHC)- Updated 16 Sep 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone HELENE/ Storm Helene (UK)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

United Kingdom

Pressure UK 16

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for ‘North East England’, ‘North West England’, ‘Northern Ireland’, ‘South West England’, ‘Strathclyde’, ‘SW Scotland, Lothian Borders’, ‘Wales’, ‘Yorkshire & Humber’

Updated 16 September at 0926 BST

Valid from 1800 BST on Mon 17 September to 0800 BST on Tue 18 September

Storm Helene will bring a spell of strong winds to western parts of the UK in particular late Monday and early Tuesday.

– Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport expected.

– Some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer.

– Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges.

– Some short term loss of power and other services.

– Coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves.

– Some damage to trees is possible, for example large branches or trees falling in a few places.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 161441
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

FQNT21 EGRR 160800
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2018
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER UNTIL 0800
UTC ON MONDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2018

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE
THROUGHOUT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH VIOLENT
STORM FORCE 11 IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 50 MILES
OF THE CENTRE BETWEEN 161800UTC AND 170800UTC. LOW 58
NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01 WEST 984 BY SAME
TIME. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORM FORCE
10 AT TIMES AROUND 50 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM 162200UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. LOW 58 NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01
WEST 984 BY SAME TIME. LOW 61 NORTH 26 WEST 980 EXPECTED
63 NORTH 20 WEST 984 BY THAT TIME. AT 160000UTC, LOW 53
NORTH 38 WEST 1003 EXPECTED 54 NORTH 23 WEST 1001 BY
170000UTC
AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

SOLE
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 AT FIRST EXCEPT IN WEST, OTHERWISE
VARIABLE 4, BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5,
INCREASING 6 TO GALE 8 LATER IN WEST. SLIGHT OR MODERATE,
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT FIRST, FOG PATCHES
DEVELOPING. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

SHANNON ROCKALL
WEST BACKING SOUTH 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH IN ROCKALL.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

BAILEY FAEROES
CYCLONIC, BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST, 5 TO 7, INCREASING
GALE 8 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SQUALLY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

SOUTHEAST ICELAND
SOUTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8 AT FIRST IN NORTHEAST,
OTHERWISE WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR THUNDERY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

EAST NORTHERN SECTION
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES, DECREASING 4
AT TIMES LATER, THEN BECOMING CYCLONIC 4 OR 5,
OCCASIONALLY 6 LATER IN FAR SOUTHEAST. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST OF ICELAND. RAIN
OR SHOWERS, THUNDERY AT TIMES IN NORTH. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR IN NORTH

WEST NORTHERN SECTION
IN NORTHEAST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTH. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHEAST, WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
DECREASING MAINLY 3 OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY
VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR EAST. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT
FIRST, OTHERWISE SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHWEST, NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING VARIABLE 3
OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH. SHOWERS. GOOD.
IN NORTHWEST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 3 OR 4 IN FAR
WEST, OTHERWISE 5 TO 7, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8 LATER IN FAR
NORTH. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH LATER.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

EAST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY, BECOMING CYCLONIC,
4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 EXCEPT IN FAR SOUTHWEST,
OTHERWISE CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 TO STORM 10
FOR A TIME, OCCASIONALLY VIOLENT STORM 11 LATER IN FAR
SOUTHEAST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH OR HIGH
IN FAR SOUTH, OCCASIONALLY VERY HIGH LATER IN SOUTHEAST.
FOG PATCHES AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTH, OTHERWISE RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR AT FIRST

WEST CENTRAL SECTION
IN SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY BACKING NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 IN
FAR SOUTHEAST AT FIRST, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8, OTHERWISE
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES,
OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE 3 OR 4 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTHEAST. RAIN
AT TIMES, SHOWERS LATER IN FAR WEST. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN NORTH, CYCLONIC 5 OR 6, BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

DENMARK STRAIT
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES. SLIGHT
OR MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH IN FAR SOUTH. SLEET OR SNOW
AT TIMES. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES NEAR GRENLAND COAST,
OTHERWISE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8,
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN EAST. MODERATE AT TIMES
NEAR COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN EAST. OCCASIONAL SNOW NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE RAIN AT TIMES. MODERATE OR
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR, BUT VERY POOR AT TIMES NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND

NORTH ICELAND
IN NORTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTHWEST,
OTHERWISE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6
AT TIMES. SLIGHT OR MODERATE. SLEET OR SNOW AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR

NORWEGIAN BASIN
VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT FIRST IN EAST, OTHERWISE SOUTHEASTERLY
5 TO 7, BECOMING CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8, INCREASING SEVERE
GALE 9 OR STORM 10 FOR A TIME. MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH
OR VERY ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN FAR NORTH. RAIN
FOR A TIME, SHOWERS LATER. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY
POOR

OUTLOOK FOR FOLLOWING 24 HOURS:
STORMS EXPECTED IN SOLE, SHANNON, EAST CENTRAL SECTION
AND NORWEGIAN BASIN. GALES OR SEVERE GALES EXPECTED IN
EAST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST
CENTRAL SECTION, DENMARK STRAIT AND NORTH ICELAND
UNSCHEDULED STORM WARNINGS ARE BROADCAST VIA SAFETYNET
AND IN
BULLETIN WONT54 EGRR AVAILABLE VIA SOME INTERNET AND
FTPMAIL
OUTLETS=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Depression Florence 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W, moving W 10mph/ ~8.69 kt 1002mb (NHC/NWS) – Updated 16 Sep 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Florence

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

811
WTNT31 KWNH 161511
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 69
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…34.0N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 81.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the day on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Southeastern…Central and western North Carolina…far northern
South Carolina into far southwest Virginia…

Southeastern North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina:

Additional 3 to 6 inches of rain…with isolated maximum of 8
inches possible…with storm total accumulations of 30 to
40 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Central and Western North Carolina…far northern South Carolina and
far southwest Virginia:

Additional 5 to 10 inches of rain, with storm total accumulations of
15 to 20 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce flash
flooding and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

West-central Virginia:

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across southeast North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Oravec

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 35.3N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 39.7N 80.5W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 40.7N 76.1W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 42.3N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 46.1N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Wilmington, NC Local Tropical Website 508 AM EDT Sun Sep 16

 

Other

 

Category 2 Florence Nears Landfall in North Carolina; Catastrophic Flooding Expected

Dr. Jeff Masters

In Florence’s Grip, No Relief for North Carolina

Bob Henson

Dire Flood Threat for the Carolinas as Florence’s Record Rains Continue

Bob Henson

Florence’s Flood Threat Expands Inland

Bob Henson

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 160852 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1000 MB

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 81.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLORENCE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON FLORENCE CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING
AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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