Wales: Aberystwyth Lifeboat rescues crashed paraglider from sea – Published 16 May 2016 1021Z (GMT/UTC)

At 4:15pm on Sunday (15 May) whilst returning from the rescue of an inflatable, the RNLI Arancia inshore rescue boat was tasked by the coastguard to go and assist a paraglider who was believed to have collided with the cliffs and crashed into the sea.

The paraglider was believed to have collided between Clarach and Constitution hill and crashed into the sea.

The volunteers on board the Arancia quickly headed back out to sea, whilst the stations larger RNLI Atlantic 85 lifeboat Spirit of Friendship was launched to assist in the search and rescue.

The paragliders flying partner had seen his friend disappear and quickly landed on top of the cliffs, raising the alarm by calling 999 when he could only see his friend’s paraglider in the sea.

Both lifeboats searched along the cliffs and soon spotted the casualty clinging onto the cliffs, whilst still attached to his paraglider. The canopy was filling with water in the sea and being dragged by the tide, pulling on the casualties body.

In quite a rocky area, the Arancia was able to make its way close to the casualty and took aboard the canopy allowing the casualty to remove himself from the equipment. A crewmember entered the water and carried out a first aid assessment of the casualty who had managed to land in the water and miss both the cliffs and surrounding rocks without injury but who was very cold after being in the sea.

The casualty was put into a lifejacket by the crewman who also provided protection against the waves and ensured the casualty was safe whilst the Arancia manoeuvred into position at the base of the cliffs to safely extract everyone. The casualty was transferred to the Atlantic 85, where he was given another first aid assessment and put into to equipment to keep him warm.

Both lifeboats returned to the RNLI station where the casualty was warmed up and able to get dry whilst being assessed by waiting Ambulance staff. Although cold and shaken he did not need to go to hospital and was picked up by friend who was relieved to see him safe and well. – RNLI

Credit: RNLI/Aberystwyth

Aberystwyth RNLI rescue crashed paraglider from sea

 

Mexico: Hurricane Patricia 20E CAT1: Tropical Storm Warning for Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas (NHC) – Updated 24 Oct 2015 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Patricia 20E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083407W5_NL_sm 24a

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM…SSW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM ENE OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). Patricia is
forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over
northern and northeastern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and
Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm later this morning,
and dissipate tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the warning area and over inland areas, especially in
higher elevations, near the center through this morning.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely
to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. During the
past 24 hours, a rainfall total of 10.25 inches (260 mm) has been
reported at Nevado De Colima in Jalisco state.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside but
will remain above normal through late today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 20E (Patricia) Warning #17
Issued at 24/0400Z

JTWC 24

20E_232345sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 240400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240000Z — NEAR 19.6N 104.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 104.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.7N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 25.0N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 104.3W.
HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 19E (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 24 Oct, 2015 3:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 20.2 N 104.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Zacatecas (22.8 N, 102.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 24

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 240832

WTPZ25 KNHC 240832
TCMEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WEST OF MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 250SE 60SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

More warnings here: METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: RAF Search & Rescue Role Ends After 74 Years – Published 04 Oct 2015 1925z (GMT/UTC)

RAF Search & Rescue Role Ends After 74 Years

PROUD RECORD: 34,025 Call-outs completed and 26,853 lives saved

The RAF's final operational search and rescue sortie comes to an end at RMB Chivenor at 12.07 on 4 October 2015. (Image: RAF)

The RAF’s final operational search and rescue sortie comes to an end at RMB Chivenor at 12.07 on 4 October 2015. (Image: RAF)

More than 74 years of continuous life-saving operations by the Royal Air Force in the UK came to an end at 1.00pm today, when the Chivenor duty search and rescue crew was formally relieved from its standby commitment by the United Kingdom Aeronautical Rescue Coordination Centre. The finale for RAF Search and Rescue in the UK was ‘business as usual’ with a final search and rescue operation taking place in the early hours of this morning.

The crew of the RAF's final operational UK search and rescue sortie: (left to right) Wing Commander 'Sparky' Dunlop (captain and Officer Commanding 22 Squadron), Sergeant Dan Allanson, Sergeant Russ Jenkins and Flight Lieutenant 'PJ' Howard. (Image: RAF)

The crew of the RAF’s final operational UK search and rescue sortie: (left to right) Wing Commander ‘Sparky’ Dunlop (captain and Officer Commanding 22 Squadron), Sergeant Dan Allanson, Sergeant Russ Jenkins and Flight Lieutenant ‘PJ’ Howard. (Image: RAF)

Chivenor is the last of the RAF’s 6 search and rescue bases to hand over responsibility for helicopter search and rescue provision to Bristow Helicopters Ltd.

Official search and rescue statistics show that since 1983 the RAF’s 6 units completed 34,025 callouts and rescued 26,853 persons in distress.

The final RAF crew to hold operational search and rescue standby commitment in the UK: (left to right) Sergeant Doug Bowden, Flight Lieutenant Ayla Holdom, Flight Lieutenant Christian 'Taff' Wilkins and Flight Sergeant Chris Scurr.(Image: RAF)

The final RAF crew to hold operational search and rescue standby commitment in the UK: (left to right) Sergeant Doug Bowden, Flight Lieutenant Ayla Holdom, Flight Lieutenant Christian ‘Taff’ Wilkins and Flight Sergeant Chris Scurr.(Image: RAF)

Other Reports

BBC

Chivenor hands over air rescue services to private firm

AgustaWestland AW189 in Coastguard livery operated by Bristow

AgustaWestland AW189 in Coastguard livery operated by Bristow

An RAF air rescue team based at Chivenor in north Devon has handed over its role to a private firm.

Bristow took over from the military at RMB Chivenor at 13:00 BST and will fly out of St Athan in south Wales.

The handover was delayed by four days because Bristow said it needed extra time.

Aberdeen-based Bristow won a 10-year contract to take over the service, which is being privatised around the UK.

The £1.6bn search and rescue deal with Bristow ends 70 years of search and rescue from the RAF and Royal Navy.

END

Well done RAF! – Goaty 🙂

Related:

UK Search & Rescue helicopters to be cut by nearly 50% – 300313 1650z

UK Government plan to close 50% of UK Coastguard Maritime Rescue Co-ordination Centres – Updated 07 Feb 2013 0001Z: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2012/12/19/uk-government-plan-to-close-50-of-uk-coastguard-maritime-rescue-co-ordination-centres-published-23-aug-2012-2310z/

Privatising Search and Rescue: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2013/02/07/5765/

Could this be the coalition government’s biggest cock-up yet?: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2012/09/29/3435/

Support flaring for Clyde Coastguard, Scotland – Published 03 Sept 2012 1440Z: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/support-flaring-for-clyde-coastguard-scotland-published-03-sept-2012-1440z/

Bermuda/ Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Joaquin CAT2 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W, moving NNE 15 knots (NHC FL) – Updated 04 OCT 2015 1705z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin

(CATEGORY 2Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Hurricane Warning for BERMUDA – storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Hurricane Warning

Updated: 11:30 am Sunday, October 04, 2015

Additional Information:

Hurricane force winds are expected to occur for a period during Sunday evening, especially in the west and over elevated, exposed areas. Please refer to latest Tropical Update Information.
Hurricane Warning
A warning that one or both of the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles in 36 hours or less: (a) average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) (74 mph) or higher; (b) dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force.

Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Fred Byrley

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

145216W5_NL_sm 4

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will
pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda
tonight.

Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 31.0 N 66.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201511N 4

Other Reports

#SCwx #NCwx #SC #NC #SAR #Flood #SevereWx #News/ Historic, life-taking #flooding in #SouthCarolina – many rescues rptd

Even though #Hurricane #Joaquin is tracking away from the United States, torrential rainfall continues to pound the #EastCoast. Heavy rain has brought historic, life-threatening flooding in many locations in South Carolina, including in #Charleston and #Columbia, where numerous rescues have been reported. Into Monday, a feed of rich tropical moisture from the #Atlantic will continue to unleash heavy rainfall on the Southeast, especially in parts of South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina. Gov. Nikki Haley urged the residents of South Carolina to stay safe, saying that the amount of rain in the low country was at its highest level in a 1,000 years and noted that the #CongareeRiver was at its highest level since 1936. In eastern South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina, rainfall totals are predicted to range from 12 to 24 inches, nearly half of the normal rainfall for an entire year. President #Obama has already declared a state of emergency in South Carolina and ordered federal aid to help state and local efforts. Rain and flood warnings remained in effect for many parts of the East Coast on Sunday. While much of the torrential rainfall was centered in the #Carolinas, coastal communities as far as #NewJersey were feeling the effects of unrelenting rainfall. In New Jersey, storms dislodged an entire house from its pilings in a low-lying area of #MiddleTownship, according to NBC New York. Flood watches and warnings are in effect in parts of New Jersey, as well as #Delaware, #Maryland and #Virginia. At least 5 people have died on the East Coast since the severe weather began. Of the three weather-related deaths in South Carolina, two were motorists who lost control of their cars and the third was a pedestrian hit by a car. Take a look at photos of the unfolding devastation from the torrential rains and powerful wind gusts.

Monday, 05 October, 2015 at 12:23 (12:23 PM) UTC RSOE

See also https://www.windyty.com/?23.624,-73.795,6

Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog

Thousand-Year Rains Possible in Carolinas; Joaquin Headed North

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 4:39 PM GMT on October 02, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin continued to lash the Bahamas on Friday morning as it turned north on a course expected to keep it well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, several days of coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur from New Jersey to North Carolina, and extremely heavy rain could produce dangerous impacts in South Carolina. It was a long night of screaming winds, pounding waves, and lashing rains for residents of the Central Bahama Islands, where dangerous Hurricane Joaquin maintained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph winds. The eyewall of Joaquin affected Crooked Island/Acklins Island (population 600), and Long Island (population 3,000) for many hours, and no doubt damage is heavy to extreme on those islands. Joaquin has turned to the north, as seen on microwave satellite animations, and as the storm plows northwards at 3 – 6 mph on Friday, San Salvador Island (population 900) will likely feel eyewall winds. The Hurricane Hunters made multiple passes through the hurricane Friday morning, finding that the central pressure had gradually risen from 935 mb to 939 mb. The size of the eye has been fluctuating considerably, and the Hurricane Hunters noted a secondary maxima of winds away from the eyewall, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle may be ready to begin. These cycles that lead to a collapse of the inner eyewall, followed by a temporary weakening as a new outer eyewall is established. Wind shear continued to be in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, on Friday morning, and visible and infrared satellite loops showed that Joaquin continued to maintain a formidable appearance. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has now has two impressive upper-level outflow channels, one to the northwest, and one to the southeast. Ocean temperatures in the region remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F). These conditions should allow Joaquin to maintain at least Category 3 strength until Saturday.


Figure 1. Lightning flashes in one of Hurricane Joaquin’s spiral bands in this nighttime image taken in the early morning hours of October 2, 2015 from the International Space Station. The lights of Miami are visible in the upper left. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly, ISS.


Figure 2.  GOES-13 visible image of Hurricane Joaquin taken at 8:45 am EDT October 2, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Forecast for Joaquin
Joaquin is finally embarking on its long-awaited turn toward the north, and the Bahamas are likely the only land areas that will feel a direct impact from the storm. Microwave satellite animations on Friday morning showed the convective core of Joaquin shifting toward the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is now streaming toward the northwest, some of it becoming entrained in the frontal system off the East Coast.

The 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) computer model runs continued to lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions inched slightly westward from their previous tracks, bringing Joaquin a bit closer to Cape Cod through a subtle left swing in its path. The 06Z GFS run shifted back toward the east, well away from New England, and the 12Z GFS run also remained far offshore. A slight northward bend in the otherwise northeastward track remains in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions, as noted in the 11:00 am EDT forecast discussion from NHC. The ECMWF’s 00Z Friday ensemble runs were quite closely clustered around the offshore track, with only a couple of its 50 members suggesting the potential for a New England landfall. In contrast, more than a third of the 00Z and 06Z GEFS ensemble members continue to indicate the possibility of a SC/NC landfall, although the operational GFS model has not shown such a solution for some time. Among other major models, the Canadian GEM and the U.S. NAM (including the 12Z Friday NAM ran) also point toward an East Coast landfall, but take heed: these are historically among the least-reliable track models, so we would be wise to heavily discount them in favor of the GFS and ECMWF.


Figure 3. GFS ensemble members from the GEFS run on 06Z Friday, October 2, lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin as depicted in the official NHC forecast, although a few members still bring Joaquin along a looping onshore path near the U.S. East Coast. On the right-hand side are the ensembles’ projected tracks for Invest 90L. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

The official NHC forecast track as of 11:00 am EDT Friday keeps Joaquin hundreds of miles away from the U.S. East Coast, and NHC has enough confidence in this track that the “key points” section of its latest forecast discussion does not mention any potential for a U.S. landfall. The persistence of a few model outliers should not be a particular cause for concern at this point, but it does remind us that the upper-level features that will steer Joaquin are complex and dynamic. The two main influences on Joaquin’s track remain the upper low now cutting off over the Southeast U.S. and Invest 90L, located more than 1000 miles east of Joaquin. 90L originated from an upper-level low that has incorporated remnants of former Tropical Storm Ida. The NHC is giving 90L an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it drifts northward. The presence of 90L is creating a pathway for Joaquin to head northeast.

It appears that the strong jet stream diving around the Southeast low will kick eastward around the base of the low over the next couple of days, pushing the eastern part of the low offshore. Together with the influence of slowly developing 90L, this should keep Joaquin moving on a north to northeast track Friday and Saturday. As Figure 3 suggests, a more northeastward motion would lend confidence in the current expectation of an offshore track, while any significant component of motion toward the west today and Saturday would keep open the door for the far-less-likely possibility of a track hooking around the Southeast upper low. We’ll be watching the 12Z Friday model guidance closely and will have more on the forecast for Joaquin in our afternoon update.


Figure 4. Projected rainfall (in inches) for the 72-hour period from 12Z (8 am EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015, to Monday, October 5. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Epic rainfall likely for South Carolina
The latest 3-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for 10 – 15″ inches of rain for the majority of South Carolina, including the cities of Charleston and Columbia.

This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a “Predecessor Rain Event” (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. The PRE can develop well to the left or right of the eventual track of the tropical cyclone. Slow-moving Hurricane Joaquin is perfectly positioned to transport a strong low-level flow of super-moist tropical air that has water vapor evaporated from record-warm ocean waters north of the Bahamas westwards into the Southeast U.S. Once this moisture hits land, it will encounter a cut-off upper low pressure system aloft, with a surface front beneath it, which will lift the moist air, cooling it, and forcing epic amounts of rainfall to fall. The air will also be moving up in elevation from the coast to the Piedmont and Appalachians, which lifts the air and facilitates even more precipitation. Satellite imagery is already hinting at development of this connection of moisture between Joaquin and the Southeast low and frontal system.


Figure 5. The maximum rainfall predicted to fall in any 24-hour period during the 5-day period from 5 am EDT October 2 to 5 am EDT October 7, according to a high-resolution Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model run done by MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) In some areas of North Carolina and South Carolina, 24-hour rainfall amounts one would expect to fall only once in a thousand years are predicted. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/ or on their Facebook page.

Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur.  According to NOAA’s Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical “recurrence interval” of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 17.1″, 17.8″, and 14.2″, respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 14.8″, 15.9″, and 12.5″, respectively.

The storm to beat in South Carolina is Tropical Storm Jerry of 1995, which dumped up to 18.51″ of rain over a small region of Southwest SC. The storm to beat in nearby eastern North Carolina is Hurricane Floyd, which dumped prodigious amounts of rain in mid-September 1999, less than a month after Hurricane Dennis had drenched the region. Floyd produced a broad stripe of 15″ – 20″ rains, with a maximum total of 24.06″ at a site five miles north of Southport, NC (about 30 miles east of the NC/SC border). To get such widespread multi-day totals outside of a tropical cyclone would be a monumental feat.  Averaged across the state as a whole, the wettest three calendar months in South Carolina weather history are July 1916 (14.41″), September 1924 (13.16″), and September 1928 (12.70″). All of these were related to tropical cyclones passing through or near the state. If the NWS precipitation forecasts are in the right ballpark, then the first few days of October 2015 might approach or even exceed these all-time monthly records for the entire state–without any help from a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm!

Texas and Oklahoma have already notched their wettest months on record (by far) this past May, and Illinois had its second-wettest month on record in June. Our warming climate is making intense short-term rains (such as the highest 1-day totals) even heavier in many parts of the United States and the world, although less research has been done on trends in monthly rainfall.

For more on the science of extremely heavy rainfall, see Bob Henson’s May 2015 post, The Rains of May and the Science of Recurrence Intervals.


Figure 6. Projected maximum flood category for the 24-hour period from noon EDT Friday, October 2, through Saturday, October 3, 2015. The worst impacts today through Saturday are expected through the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Strong on-shore winds along the mid-Atlantic coast due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Joaquin and a strong high pressure system over the Northeast U.S. were creating storm surge heights of 2 – 3′ in many locations, and over 3′ on Virginia’s Delmarva Peninsula. Image credit: Hal Needham.

Long-duration coastal flooding under way
The combination of Hurricane Joaquin, the Southeast U.S. low, and a strong ridge well to the north is leading to an unusually prolonged period of steady onshore flow and high surf along the U.S. East Coast from New Jersey southward to North Carolina. The highest-impact coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected along the Virginia and Delaware coast, including Ocean City, MD, and the Hampton Roads area of VA, which includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wakefield, VA, NWS office is calling for several rounds of moderate to severe coastal flooding through the weekend. See the latest blog post from storm-surge expert Hal Needham for more details on this event.

We’ll have an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Sunday, October 04, 2015
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

**A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT** As Hurricane Joaquin’s makes its approach, winds increase tropical storm force to storm force this afternoon with a period of hurricane force winds, especially in the west, this evening into the night. Joaquin’s closest point of approach remains near 60 miles, with slow improvement during Monday.

Today –

Winds southeasterly 30 to 40 knots gusts to 50 knots, increasing 40 to 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots later in the afternoon…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Building southerly swells… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 18 ft, building…  Sunrise: 7:14 am.

Tonight –

Winds southerly 40 to 50 knots gusts to 60 knots, increasing 55 to 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots, mainly in the west and in elevated areas, decreasing slowly and veering southwesterly overnight…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Southerly swells building high… Seas inside the reef 3 to 7 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 35 ft…  Sunset: 7:00 pm.

Monday –

Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 knots gusts to 45 knots, decreasing 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots by evening, further decreasing 18 to 24 knots with stronger gusts overnight…  Isolated to scattered showers, becoming isolated during the day, with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 20 ft, decreasing during the afternoon inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 9 to 15 ft…  Sunrise: 7:15 am; Sunset: 6:59 pm.

Tuesday –

Winds southwesterly 16 to 22 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the morning…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 11 ft…  Sunrise: 7:16 am; Sunset: 6:57 pm.

Wednesday –

Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the afternoon…  Isolated to scattered showers with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:56 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 12 to 18 knots…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:55 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 2:30 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 2:57 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 9:14 pm this evening: 0.4m/1.3ft, 9:20 am Monday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 26.9°C/80.4°F
Meteorologist: Fred Byrley, Observer: Chris Black

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 021452

WTNT21 KNHC 041450
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT……. 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 200SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There may be more warnings here: METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ South China Sea: Typhoon Mujigae 22W 03/1200Z 19.5N 113.4E, moving WNW 11 knots (JMA) – Published 03 Oct 2015 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mujigae 22W

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1522
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1522 (MUJIGAE)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 October 2015

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°30′(19.5°)
E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35′(20.6°)
E111°35′(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N21°40′(21.7°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°30′(23.5°)
E108°20′(108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N25°10′(25.2°)
E108°00′(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

HKO_banner_eng

tctrack_1519_en

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

(Updated at 20:45 on 3 Oct HKT)

In the past few hours, outer rainbands of Majigae brought heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Winds occasionally reached gale force in the offshore areas and on high ground. Heavy squally showers are expected to continue to affect Hong Kong in the next few hours.

According to the present forecast track, Mujigae will be closest to Hong Kong from midnight to early tomorrow morning. Mujigae is expected to skirt around 300 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong.

Unless Mujigae adopts a more northerly track or intensifies significantly, the chance of issuing the Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is not high. However, winds will occasionally reach gale force over the southwestern part of Hong Kong. The Observatory will closely monitor the evolution of Mujigae.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 9:45 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

Please listen to radio or watch television for traffic conditions and further announcements on the rainstorm.

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Oct, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon MUJIGAE (22W) currently located near 19.5 N 113.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HKO – Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 03/Oct/2015

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 031200 UTC, Typhoon Mujigae (1522) with central pressure 965 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of one nine point five degrees north (19.5 N) one one three point four degrees east (113.4 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 10 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 70 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 270 nautical miles over northern semicircle, 240 nautical miles elsewhere.

Forecast position and intensity at 041200 UTC
Two one point five degrees north (21.5 N)
One zero nine point nine degrees east (109.9 E)
Maximum winds 65 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 051200 UTC
Two three point eight degrees north (23.8 N)
One zero eight point four degrees east (108.4 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 061200 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200
WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1522 MUJIGAE (1522) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 19.5N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 20.6N 111.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 21.7N 109.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.5N 108.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 25.2N 108.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1521-00 25

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°55′(19.9°)
E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05′(22.1°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00′(25.0°)
E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

wp2115 25

21W_250532sams

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201521W 25A

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15092603

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh 161500Z 20.1N 146.0E, moving NW at 09 knots (JMA) – Published 16 Sept 2015 1616Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

Tropical Storm Krovanh

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Tropical Storm Krovanh

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1520

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

STS 1520 (KROVANH)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 16 September 2015

<Analyses at 16/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°05′(20.1°)
E146°00′(146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 17/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20′(21.3°)
E144°30′(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 17/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°35′(22.6°)
E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°35′(25.6°)
E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°05′(29.1°)
E145°05′(145.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2015.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/20W_161132sair.jpg

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 20.0N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 146.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 21.2N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 22.5N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.2N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 25.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 29.4N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 36.9N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 145.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 160E 36N 151E 40N 151E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 31N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 46N 150E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 172E ENE SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 167E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 37N 120E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 42N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 38N 145E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 62N 153E ESE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 123E TO 28N 126E 30N 129E 30N 131E 31N 132E
32N 137E 33N 143E 32N 150E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1520 KROVANH (1520) 980 HPA AT 19.9N 146.4E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1520 KROVANH (1520) 980 HPA
AT 20.1N 146.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 21.3N 144.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 22.6N 143.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnam/ South China Sea: Tropical Depression Nineteen (19W) 131500Z POSITION near 15.8N 110.9E, moving W at 07 knots (JTWC) – Published 13 sept 2015 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Nineteen (19W)

VIETNAM BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC) 

Tropical Depression Nineteen

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Tropical Depression Nineteen

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

TD a

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TD
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 13 September 2015

<Analyses at 13/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N15°35′(15.6°)
E111°30′(111.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 14/15 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N15°40′(15.7°)
E108°55′(108.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

VIETNAM

National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING
TC TRACKS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Sunday, September 13, 2015 15.7 111.7 TD 56 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

22 Monday, September 14, 2015 15.7 109.0 TS 65 km/hour
22 Tuesday, September 15, 2015 15.2 105.8 Low 28 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 02:30 AM Monday, September 14, 2015

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 19W (Nineteen) Warning #01
Issued at 13/1500Z

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1915.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19W_131132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130951SEP15//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
131200Z — NEAR 15.8N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 111.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 15.8N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 16.1N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 15.9N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 15.3N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 110.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. THIS
MESSAGE SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 130951Z SEP 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21
PGTW 131000).//
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 131200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 44N 173E 48N 180E 33N 180E 33N 172E 44N 173E.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 15.8N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 15.4N 109.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 170E 60N 180E 50N 180E 43N 170E 40N 160E 38N 150E 38N
143E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1014 HPA AT 47N 148E NE 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 14N 152E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 08N 176E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 34N 123E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 43N 169E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 47N 148E TO 49N 151E 50N 156E.
COLD FRONT FROM 47N 148E TO 44N 146E 43N 144E 36N 141E 30N 136E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Severe Tropical Storm 1517 Kilo downgraded to LOW: 11/1200Z 43N 148E, moving N 25 knots (JMA) – Published 11 Sept 2015 1905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Kilo

….downgraded to Low Pressure Area (LOW or LPA) (JMA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1517-00

JPwarn

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

LOW
Issued at 12:35 UTC, 11 September 2015

<Analyses at 11/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
LOW
Center position N43°00′(43.0°)
E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 980hPa

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm KILO (03C) currently located near 38.5 N 147.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 111200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW FORMER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1517 KILO (1517) 980 HPA
AT 43N 148E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 43N 153E 38N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 40N 151E 38N 149E 36N 142E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 49N 150E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 54N 153E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 142E 42N 143E 51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 45N 180E 40N
170E 37N 156E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 45N 138E NE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 41N 138E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 165E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 45N 167E SE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 115E TO 33N 121E 36N 126E 36N 129E 36N
132E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan: Severe Tropical Storm Etau (18W) 08/1500Z 32.1N 138.2E, moving N at 19 Knots (JMA) – Updated 08 Sept 2015 1518Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Etau (1518, 18W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1518-00 8

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

STS 1518 (ETAU)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 8 September 2015

<Analyses at 08/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N32°05′(32.1°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW170km(90NM)
<Estimate for 08/16 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N32°25′(32.4°)
E138°10′(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 08/21 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N33°50′(33.8°)
E137°40′(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area NE130km(70NM)
SW90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E136°35′(136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/09 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N36°35′(36.6°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 120km(65NM)
<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°40′(37.7°)
E134°20′(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 18W (Etau) Warning #08
Issued at 08/1500Z

wp1815

WTPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081200Z — NEAR 31.2N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.2N 138.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 34.8N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 37.4N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 38.3N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 39.9N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 32.1N 138.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 03C (KILO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ETAU (18W) currently located near 31.2 N 138.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201518W

OTHER REPORTS

Around 73,000 people were instructed to evacuate their homes in Hamamatsu, Shizuoka Prefecture, on Tuesday as an approaching typhoon brought heavy rain to the area in central Japan.

Typhoon Etau is located south of the Japanese archipelago and moving north. It is likely to come close to Japan on Wednesday morning and possibly make landfall, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The agency has already issued heavy rain warnings for parts of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Shizuoka and Aichi prefectures, and is alerting people to severe rain over a swath of the country from Tokyo and its surrounding region to the main island of Kyushu in southwestern Japan. If the typhoon moves northward on its projected course, it may make landfall on the Kii Peninsula at some point. At 12 p.m., the typhoon was located about 430 kilometers west-northwest of Chichijima Island in the Ogasawara island chain, moving north at a speed of 25 km per hour. The storm was packing winds of up to 126 kph with an atmospheric pressure of 990 hectopascals at its center. In Hamamatsu, some homes appear to have been flooded because of the rain, according to the municipal government. Some roads have also been closed to traffic due to flooding.

Tuesday, 08 September, 2015 at 11:07 (11:07 AM) UTC RSOE

BBC Japan hit by severe flooding and landslides – 10 Sept 2015 (GMT/UTC)

Widespread flooding and landslides in north-east Japan have forced more than 90,000 people to abandon their homes.

The city of Joso, north of the capital, Tokyo, was hit by a wall of water after the Kinugawa River burst its banks. Helicopter rescue teams have been plucking people from rooftops.

One person has been reported missing in the region and at least 12 are injured.

The rains come a day after Typhoon Etau brought winds of up to 125km/h (78mph) to central Aichi prefecture.

“This is a scale of downpour that we have not experienced before. Grave danger could be imminent,” the chief forecaster at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Takuya Deshimaru, told an emergency press conference earlier on Thursday.

The hardest-hit areas have been Ibaraki and Tochigi prefectures. Japan’s Meteorological Agency had put both regions on its highest level of alert.

Television footage from Joso in Ibaraki showed people clinging to the rooftops before helicopter rescue teams winched them to safety.

Entire homes and cars were carried away on the torrent as the Kinugawa River burst its banks after two days of heavy rainfall.

In Tochigi, more than 500mm (19 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours in places, according to local public broadcaster NHK, which said that was about double what normally falls there throughout the whole of September.

Parts of central Tochigi have seen almost 60cm of rain since Monday evening, breaking records.

Many other areas of eastern and north-eastern Japan have also been issued weather warnings, including Fukushima prefecture, home to the still-damaged nuclear plant hit in 2011’s earthquake and tsunami.

The downpour overwhelmed the site’s drainage pumps, a spokesman for operator Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco) said. Huge volumes of water, used to cool the plant’s crippled reactors, are being stored at the site.

Landslides and flooding

The Fire and Disaster Management Agency said 15 people had been injured across Japan. Two were elderly women seriously injured after being knocked over by strong winds.

Local media reported one person missing after a landslide hit a house in Kanuma, Tochigi prefecture.

Some areas had power cuts and transport was disrupted, with many air and train services cancelled or delayed. Some roads were also closed.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the authorities were doing their best.

“The government will stand united and do its best to deal with the disaster… by putting its highest priority on people’s lives,” he told reporters.

Last month, powerful Typhoon Goni hit Japan’s southernmost main island of Kyushu, killing at least one person and injuring 70 others.

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

15090821

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081500

WTJP32 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1518 ETAU (1518) 985 HPA
AT 32.1N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 35.4N 136.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 37.7N 134.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan: Typhoon Kilo 03C 072100Z POSITION nr 25.9N 160.8E, WNW at 12 knots (JTWC) – Published 07 Sept 2015 2055z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Kilo 1517 03C

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

Typhoon Kilo

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Typhoon Kilo

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1517

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1517 (KILO)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 7 September 2015
<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°35′(25.6°)
E162°05′(162.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more N190km(100NM)
S130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°35′(26.6°)
E159°05′(159.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area N310km(170NM)
S240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E155°55′(155.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E151°00′(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E148°50′(148.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

Unit:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/cp0315.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 073
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 25.6N 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 161.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 26.6N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 27.9N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 29.4N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.4N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 35.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 43.2N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 160.8E.
TYPHOON 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1265 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1517 KILO (1517) 955 HPA
AT 25.6N 162.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 26.6N 159.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 27.9N 155.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 31.3N 151.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 35.4N 148.8E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

What is a ‘Spanish Plume’?

Official blog of the Met Office news team

There has been a lot of talk about warm weather expected across parts of England again this weekend.  Temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to high 20’s C on Friday and into the weekend, bringing the risk of thundery showers for some.  It has been reported that a ‘Spanish Plume’ is responsible for this. Here, Ewen McCallum, Met Office Chief Meteorologist explains what a ‘Spanish Plume’ is?

‘Spanish Plume’ is actually a rather catchy name for a rather complex meteorological phenomenon which leads to warm conditions and heavy showers or thunderstorms over parts of the UK and north-west Europe.

As the name suggests it is a plume of very warm air that pushes north from the Spanish plateau and reaches the British Isles on a southerly airflow.  Of course over the UK we are normally affected by much cooler Atlantic air as cold fronts encroach from the west. Now…

View original post 50 more words

Guadeloupe/ Antigua and Barbuda/ Dominica: Hurricane Danny at 20/1500Z near 12.5N 44.8W, moving WNW at 10 knots (NHC) – Published 20 Aug 2015 2007z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Danny

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather Service144804W5_NL_sm
000
WTNT34 KNHC 201447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

…DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI…1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Danny
was located by satellite near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 44.8
West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Danny is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1446

WTNT24 KNHC 201446
TCMAT4

HURRICANE DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 44.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 44.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 44.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There may be more warnings here: METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Central Pacific/ Hawaii: Hurricane HILDA (10E) CAT4 09/0400Z POSITION nr 14.1N 144.7W, moving WNW 12 knots (JTWC) – Updated 09 Aug 2015 0835Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Hilda (10E)

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…..HILDA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII……CPHC

HAWAII BE AWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 36 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center

EP102015W

probEP102015_150809_0700_sata1

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI (Long Range Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI
(Long Range Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI (Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI
(Base Reflectivity)

WTPA35 PHFO 090243
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

…HILDA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.1N 144.5W
ABOUT 800 MI…1285 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1010 MI…1625 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.5 WEST. HILDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H. HILDA IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING STARTING ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES…205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB…28.06 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 10E (Hilda) Warning #13
Issued at 09/0400Z

ep1015 9

WTPN31 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 10E (HILDA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 10E (HILDA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090000Z — NEAR 13.9N 144.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 144.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 14.6N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 15.5N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 16.5N 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 17.5N 149.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 19.2N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 20.2N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 21.0N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 144.7W.
HURRICANE 10E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0235

WTPA25 PHFO 090235 RRA
TCMCP5

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 144.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT…….110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 144.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 144.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.6N 146.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…115NE 90SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.5N 147.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…125NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 148.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…125NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 149.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.2N 150.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…105NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

There may be other warnings here:

METAREA XII

FZHW60 PHFO 090340
OFFHFO

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR HAWAII
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 40 NAUTICAL MILES OUT TO 240
NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING THE PORTION OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT EAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT
OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN
TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PHZ105-091000-
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS…
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HURRICANE HILDA IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE THEN WEAK TO
A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

$$

PHZ180-091000-
HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…

.TONIGHT…E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. W OF
155W…SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUESDAY…E OF 154W…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…E
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…E OF 154W…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…E WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081510
TWDEP

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/Hawaii(US): Hurricane Guillermo 09E CAT2 012100Z 13.8N 140.1W, moving WNW 12 knots (NHC) – Published 010915 2156z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Guillermo (09E)

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather Service
National Hurricane Center

204754W5_NL_sm
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 012040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

…GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.8N 140.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI…1725 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 140.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts. Guillermo should begin to gradually weaken tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future public advisories will be issued by
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Avila

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 012039

WTPZ24 KNHC 012039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 140.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOTCMCP4, WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC…BEGINNING AT 02/0300Z.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

There may be other warnings here:
METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Minamidaitōjima/ Okinawa/ AmamiŌshima/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Halola (01C) 24/1500Z position near 25.3N 130.6E, moving W at 07 knots (JTWC) – Updated 240715 1508z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Halola (01C)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Minamidaitōjima, Amami Ōshima, Okinawa,  Japan Mainland and South Korea BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET (JTWC)

Note: There are differences between forecast agencies

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1512-00 24
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15072415 24

TY 1512 (HALOLA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 24 July 2015

<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00′(25.0°)
E131°05′(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Estimate for 24/13 UTC>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00′(25.0°)
E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°30′(25.5°)
E130°25′(130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 50km(25NM)
Storm warning area ALL120km(65NM)
<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10′(26.2°)
E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°05′(27.1°)
E128°55′(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 110km(60NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10′(28.2°)
E128°25′(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
CURRENT WARNINGS - Click image for more detail

CURRENT WARNINGS – Click image for more detail

Korea Meteorological Administration

Typhoon

No.12 HALOLA

Issued at(KST) : 2015.07.24. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2015.07.24. 12:00 Analysis 24.9 131.0 970 35 126 240
(SW 200)
Strong Small W 14
2015.07.25. 00:00 Forecast 26.4 129.6 975 32 115 240
(WSW 200)
Normal Small NW 18 60
2015.07.25. 12:00 Forecast 28.6 128.2 980 29 104 220
(W 180)
Normal Small NNW 24 140
2015.07.26. 00:00 Forecast 31.4 127.6 985 27 97 200
(WNW 170)
Normal Small NNW 26 185
2015.07.26. 12:00 Forecast 34.1 128.6 990 24 86 180
(WNW 100)
Weak Small NNE 26 230
2015.07.27. 00:00 Forecast 36.5 130.9 996 20 72 130
(NW 70)
Weak Small NE 28 275
2015.07.27. 12:00 Forecast 37.9 134.7 1002 ENE 31

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 01C (Halola) Warning #58
Issued at 24/1500Z

cp0115 24a

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

01C_241132sair 24

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 25.0N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 131.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 26.2N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 28.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 31.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 34.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 38.3N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 130.6E.
TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Hurricane HALOLA (01C) currently located near 25.0 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map
Hurricane HALOLA: Storm-centered zoom at 24 hours lead (Image TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241200

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965 HPA
AT 25.0N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 37.6N 134.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Marine Warnings: SEA AROUND AMAMI
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

KAGOSHIMA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA AROUND AMAMI
GALE WARNING FOR SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA AROUND AMAMI
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 30KT AND SE-LY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH MAX 75KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 35KT FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

OKINAWA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
GALE WARNING FOR SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
EASTERLY TO SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 70KT

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 55KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 45KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Other warnings at METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Loyalty Islands/ Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) 120300Z POSITION near 20.7S 166.7E, moving ESE at 18 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120415 0905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Solo

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone SOLO

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 11 issued 0110 UTC Sunday 12 April 2015

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone SOLO

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am April 12 1 20.3S 166.0E 165
+6hr 6 am April 12 tropical low 21.1S 167.4E 195
+12hr 12 pm April 12 tropical low 22.1S 169.1E 220
+18hr 6 pm April 12 tropical low 23.1S 171.0E 250
+24hr 12 am April 13 tropical low 24.2S 173.3E 280
+36hr 12 pm April 13 tropical low 26.3S 178.1E 340
+48hr 12 am April 14 tropical low 28.4S 176.9W 400
+60hr 12 pm April 14 tropical low 31.9S 170.8W 485
+72hr 12 am April 15 tropical low 39.3S 161.5W 570

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

Z

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 12/0138 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.3S 166.0E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

SOLO IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS CYCLONE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES INTO A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SST. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LLCC WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH SUPPOSED
LLCC ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES FROM EDGE YIELDS DT=2.0, MET AND PAT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS IT.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 22.1S 169.1E MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 24.2S 173.3E MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 26.3S 178.1E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 28.4S 176.9E MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TC SOLO UNLESS IT RE-INTENSIFIES.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh2315 s12

 https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/23P_112332sams.jpg

WTPS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 20.2S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 165.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 22.3S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 24.8S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 166.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
FULLY EXPOSED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM KNES. ADDITIONALLY, NUMEROUS NEARBY 120000z SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE, INCLUDING STATIONS 91582 AND 91579, WITH
A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOTS REPORTED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CURRENTLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS) IS
STEADILY INCREASING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE REGION
ARE 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER, TC SOLO WILL SOON REACH SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS. FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 18 KNOTS AS TC
23P TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 15 FEET.
//
NNNN

TSR SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Apr, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SOLO (23P) currently located near 20.2 S 165.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 12/0100 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3
SOUTH 166.0 EAST AT 120000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.3S 166.0E AT 120000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
30 KNOTS BY 120600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.1S 169.1E AT 121200 UTC
AND NEAR 24.2S 173.3E AT 130000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL GALE WARNING ON TC SOLO UNLESS IT
RE-INTENSIFIES.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm BAVI / BETTY(1503) 170600Z nr 15.3N 135.4E, moving WNW at 13 knots (JMA) – Updated 170315 0820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Bavi (1503)(03W)/ “BETTY” in Philippines

…BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT….NWS GUAM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

wp201503_sat_anim BAVI 17

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1503-00 BAVI 17

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

15031709

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 17 March 2015

<Analyses at 17/06 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity –
Center position N15°20′(15.3°)
E135°25′(135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW280km(150NM)
SE170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N15°35′(15.6°)
E133°40′(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity –
Center position of probability circle N16°05′(16.1°)
E131°55′(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity –
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°30′(16.5°)
E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)

PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 17 March 2015 Satellite Image 
betty 15031700 bettysat 15031700

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BETTY” (BAVI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 17 March 2015

The Tropical Storm {BAVI} east of Bicol Region will enter The Philippine Area Of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon and will be named “BETTY”.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
1,530 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.4°N, 136.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 20 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: 24 hour (Tomorrow morning):
1,030 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
48 hour (Thursday morning):
640 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
72 hour (Friday morning):
270 km East Northeast of Casiguran.
No Public Storm Warning Signal

Estimated rainfall amount is from 2.5 – 7.5 mm per hour (light – moderate) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

The Tropical Storm is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM today.

 11  a.m. Weather Bulletin in pdf 

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

errorTrack1 BAVI 17
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170235
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

…TROPICAL STORM BAVI WEAKENING…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.3N 135.8E

ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST…290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 100 PM CHST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.8 EAST…MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WESTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES…MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

wp0315 BAVI 17

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_162332sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 170300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
170000Z — NEAR 15.2N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 136.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 15.6N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 15.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 170600

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1503 BAVI (1503) 998 HPA
AT 15.3N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.6N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.1N 131.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.5N 129.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTPH RPMM 170000
TTT GALE WARNING 01

AT 0000 17 MARCH TROPICAL STORM [BAVI] {1503} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

Further warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Signpost to UK SEVERE WEATHER, FLOOD WARNINGS and TORRO TORNADO WATCH – Updated 09 Aug 2014 2325z (GMT/UTC)

EX-Hurricane Bertha

TORRO TORNADO WATCH for much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England, Wales

and the Channel Islands.

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

Valid from 03:00 until 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 22:45GMT on Saturday 9th August 2014

Valid from/until: 03:00- 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England

Wales

Channel Islands

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

DISCUSSION

Deepening Atlantic storm with tropical airmass within its warm sector will cross the watch area during Sunday. Although the exact track is still somewhat uncertain, there are indications from several models that a dual-centred system will evolve. The first centre should move into Wales later tonight, with the main centre crossing SW England and heading NE to Lincs by afternoon, whilst the first centre tends to fill or is consumed by the second.

Strong lifting from a sharpening upper trough should steepen lapse rates enough for embedded convection to develop close to and to the south of both centres of low pressure, with wind shear favourable for severe weather, especially to the south and east of the second, deeper, low pressure area.

A mass of heavy rain is already moving in, and through the latter part of the night, embedded convection may affect parts of Wales and SW England, as the low pressure centre(s) move in. During Sunday morning, as the sharpening upper trough digs into the moist sector, it is possible that a squall line may develop across southern England/E Anglia. Additionally, ahead of the low pressure area moving from SW England to Lincs, convection may develop in the moist sector.

In each of these areas, low-level and deep layer wind shear appears sufficient for severe thunderstorms with strong winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The main caveat with this watch is that the maritime nature of the airmass would typically suggest fairly meagre lapse rates – however, global and mesoscale models indication fairly decent instability associated with this system (~1000J/Kg CAPE). If instability and shear can combine favourably, a strong tornado is possible.

The area from SW England to Lincs, and points south-east of there appear to have a higher risk of severe weather than elsewhere in the watch area. Please note this forecast has been issued early due to the fact the situation will not be monitored by TORRO overnight.

Forecaster: RPK

Torro Tornado Watch 2014/008 (Image: TORRO)

also UK SEVERE WEATHER & FLOOD WARNINGS

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2Ne

 

China: City of Yumen sealed off, 151 people quarantined, after Bubonic Plague death – Published 230714 1111z

Plague kills man in NW China

LANZHOU, July 18 (Xinhua) — A 38-year-old man in northwest China’s Gansu Province has died of plague, local authorities said.

The case was reported in Yumen City under the jurisdiction of Jiuquan City, the Jiuquan government said on Thursday. The man, who died on Wednesday, had been in contact with a dead marmot, which is of the squirrel family.

A total of 151 people who had close contact with the man have been put in quarantine and are under medical observation. None of them has reported syndromes of the disease so far, according to the local government.

The National Health and Family Planning Commission has sent disease prevention and control specialists to Yumen to prevent the plague from spreading.

Plague is categorized as a Class A infectious disease, the most serious under China’s Law on the Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases.

END

The Guardian home

Chinese city sealed off after bubonic plague death

30,000 residents of Yumen are not being allowed to leave and 151 people have been placed in quarantine after man’s death
  • theguardian.com, Tuesday 22 July 2014 12.59 BST

A Chinese city has been sealed off and 151 people have been placed in quarantine since last week after a man died of bubonic plague, state media said.

The 30,000 residents of Yumen, in the north-western province of Gansu, are not being allowed to leave, and police at roadblocks on the perimeter of the city are telling motorists to find alternative routes, China Central Television (CCTV) said.

A 38-year-old man died last Wednesday, the report said, after he had been in contact with a dead marmot, a small furry animal related to the squirrel. No further plague cases have been reported.

CCTV said officials were not allowing anyone to leave. The China Daily newspaper said four quarantine sectors had been set up in the city.

“The city has enough rice, flour and oil to supply all its residents for up to one month,” CCTV added. “Local residents and those in quarantine are all in stable condition.” No further cases have been reported.

Bubonic plague is a bacterial infection best known for the Black Death, a virulent epidemic that killed tens of millions of people in 14th-century Europe. Primarily an animal illness, it is extremely rare in humans.

The US Centres for Disease Control (CDC) says modern antibiotics are effective in treating plague, but that without prompt treatment the disease can cause serious illness or death.

END

Bubonic plague

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This article is about the disease in general. For information about the medieval European plague, see Black Death
Bubonic plague is a zoonotic disease, circulating mainly in fleas on small rodents, and is one of three types of bacterial infections caused by Yersinia pestis (formerly known as Pasteurella pestis), that belongs to the family Enterobacteriaceae. Without treatment, the bubonic plague kills about two thirds of infected humans within four days.

The term bubonic plague is derived from the Greek word βουβών, meaning “groin”. Swollen lymph nodes (buboes) especially occur in the armpit and groin in persons suffering from bubonic plague. Bubonic plague was often used synonymously for plague, but it does in fact refer specifically to an infection that enters through the skin and travels through the lymphatics, as is often seen in flea-borne infections.

Bubonic plague—along with the septicemic plague and the pneumonic plague, which are the two other manifestations of Y. pestis—is commonly believed to be the cause of the Black Death that swept through Europe in the 14th century and killed an estimated 25 million people, or 30–60% of the European population.[1] Around the Mediterranean Region, summers seemed to be the season when the disease took place. While in Europe, people found the disease most occurring in the autumn.[2] Because the plague killed so many of the working population, wages rose and some historians have seen this as a turning point in European economic development.[3][4]

More from Wikipedia (link)

Caribbean/Lesser Antilles: Tropical Depression Two: 221500Z near 12.6N 48.0W, moving W at 15 knots (NHC FL) – Published 220714 1840z (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two

…DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD..

….INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM..NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center – NHC

000
WTNT32 KNHC 221433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

…DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.6N 48.0W
ABOUT 910 MI…1465 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1012 MB…29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/H…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW…BUT
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB…29.89 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

About The Lesser Antilles

MARITIME

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431

WTNT22 KNHC 221431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 47.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.9N 50.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.3N 53.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.9N 56.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.8N 60.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

AT 1500 UTC…TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
48.0W OR ABOUT 750 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED
THROUGH WED…BUT SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST WED NIGHT AND THU
DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
INTO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-49W. SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-75W WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS
DURING LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED…WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW GALE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE
LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N38W TO 12N39W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 14N HINDERING
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TOGETHER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N93W TO THE
E PACIFIC AT 8N95W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE HAVE DIMINISHED PAST 3-6 HOURS.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
5N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EAST OF T.D. TWO
EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 13N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO
FROM 11N49W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 75 NM
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN E OF 29W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…

A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N89W WITH A
1016 MB LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTH
OF THE LOW FROM 27N TO 28.5N BETWEEN 86W-93W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF…AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA…THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA…AND EXTREME SE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

15-25 KT TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS FROM
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
JAMAICA IS ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…AND HISPANIOLA. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

…HISPANIOLA…

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS THROUGH WED. EXPECT ACTIVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING MAXIMUM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF CUBA W
OF 77W DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 82W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 30-31N ANCHORED BY 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ALL ACROSS THE REGION E OF 77W WITH NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
T.D. TWO IN THE DEEP TROPICS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 27N65W IS SUPPORTING STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N50W IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1559

FZNT01 KWBC 221559
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 23
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 24

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 42N52W 1008 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW EXCEPT
WITHIN 300 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N40W 1002 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM
E AND 300 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 34N TO 46N BETWEEN 35W AND A LINE FROM 34N52W TO
46N45W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 45N33W 1000 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W
AND 240 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 33N39W TO 49N37W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N61W 987 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM
S…360 NM N AND 420 NM E QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW E OF AREA 55N29W 1000 MB MOVING N 10 KT. FROM 47N TO 65N
BETWEEN 35W AND 42W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.N OF 60N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 64N60W TO
56N50W AREA OF SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 58N61W DESCRIBED IN
WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N73W 1007 MB. BETWEEN 180 NM AND 480 NM
S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 53N50W TO 60N60W TO 67N55W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG W OF A LINE FROM 50N49W TO 55N48W TO
60N57W TO 67N59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG W OF A LINE FROM 45N47W TO 55N42W TO
64N62W.

.HIGH 45N58W 1019 MB MOVING S 15 KT WILL TURN E AFTER 24 HOURS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N59W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N49W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 31N38W 1026 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH 39N73W 1023 MB MOVING SE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUL 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUL 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 24.

.WARNINGS.

…CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING…
.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W NE TO E WINDS 30
TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
70W AND 82W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 83W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N
BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E
SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11.5N TO
17N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER WATERS 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
17N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO
11 FT. REMAINDER WATERS 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09.5N TO 16N
BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E
SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 68W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11.5N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NEAR 12.6N 48.0W 1012 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUL 22 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT NEAR CENTER. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NEAR 13.3N 53.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NEAR 14.8N 60.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.ATLC 12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN 12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N W OF 86W…INCLUDING THE
GULF OF HONDURAS…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

 http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Homelessness following Halpin

In a society that appears to be becoming more unforgiving and less compassionate the plight of those without a home becomes even more accute

Homelessness affects more than just the individual and is ethically, socially and economically harrowing for all in society. Following years of decline, the 2010 economic downturn has seen an accrual of numbers resulting in a net increase of a third and the reports on Halpin have forced an issue undermined by a lack of media exposure back into the public realm.    

The startling death of Lee Halpin, an aspiring investigative journalist after having slept rough for just 3 of the 7 days intended, epitomises the intrepid venture of “fearless reporting” he wished to demonstrate. The tragic nature of the outcome of a good-willed proposal encourages tenacity to the notion that his proposals went awry with many saying that he has paid the ultimate price, and indeed he has, whilst post-mortem examinations are still taking place his death is suspected to have been the result of hypothermia. However, dark…

View original post 1,158 more words

Filmmaker,27, found dead

luciaida

Lee Halpin

Lee Halpin, a 27-year-old filmmaker, was found dead 3 days after embarking on a project to spend a week living on the streets in his home city of Newcastle. He is believed to have frozen to death while making a documentary about sleeping rough on the streets. In a video explaining his project, he claimed he was applying for a position on a Channel 4 investigative journalism program. He said he hoped to show the channel he could be “fearless” – a key “value” of the broadcaster.

View original post

Red Bull Gives Fearless Felix Wings

McMoments

                “Sometimes we have to get really high to see how small we are. When standing there on top of the world, you become so humble, you do not think about breaking records anymore, you do not think about gaining scientific data,” Felix Baumgartner said after the jump. “The only thing you want is to come back alive.” Death was a definite possibility, but it was avoided. Baumgartner activated his parachute as he neared Earth, gently gliding into California’s Mojave Desert about 40 miles east of Roswell and landing safely.

‘Fearless Felix’ made a jump of over 24 miles and reached a speed of 833.9 miles per hour, over ten times the speed of King’s Island’s Diamondback! His drop lasted nine minutes, half of the time in free fall. Reaching his goal, he broke the sound barrier, meaning he went faster than…

View original post 255 more words

Search for missing ferry passenger called off

 
 
 

 

An air-sea search for a missing passenger who had been travelling on a ferry from Guernsey to Poole has been called off

 

A search for a missing passenger who had been travelling on a Condor Rapide fast ferry from Guernsey to Poole has now been called off.

http://news.sky.com/home/uk-news/article/16200647

 

Flash Floods in Fiji

 

 

Widespread flooding to parts of Fiji from Thursday night into Friday. The hardest hit areas were on the western side of the main island Viti Levu where the town of Nandi has been cut off from other parts of the island. Nandi, home to Fiji’s International Airport, received over 11 inches of rain since Thursday, with rain still falling across the area on Friday night. The slow movement of the tropical low will result in a continuing threat for locally heavy rainfall through the weekend and possibly into early next week. The heavy rainfall caused most flights to and from the International Airport to be canceled on Friday, while hundreds of people were forced from their homes and many stranded on rooftops. Other local communities have been cut off by raging flood waters as rivers overflowed their banks, forcing most schools to close on Friday. No deaths have been reported thus far; however, life-threatening flooding will be possible through the weekend. – RSOE

Youtube user ashishchief uploaded this video:

watch?v=KRM4da5GU0k

US Coast Guard assist Clipper Race yacht in Pacific after 4 crew injured – Updated 01 April 2012

US Coast Guard launch operation to assist yacht competing in Clipper Round the World Yacht Race after injuries sustained in heavy seas: Para-jumpers to be despatched and container vessel diverted to assist.

Yacht Geraldton Western Australia hit by large wave in storm, 4 crew injured, 3 Brits 1 Aus., Lost steering. See:

http://www.sail-world.com/UK/US-Coastguard-to-the-rescue-after-Cllipper-Round-the-World-injuries/95502

“An attempt was made to parachute medical help to the sailors but it was abandoned after poor weather conditions meant paramedics were unable to jump out of the aircraft.

A helicopter will now be sent to help. It will launch from a coast guard ship to deliver medical supplies. Subject to their medical condition, the injured crew will be taken off the yacht.

Explaining the revised plan, US coast guard spokesman Levi Read said: “They will then lower an emergency medical technician from the helicopter on to the boat. He will assess the injuries, treat them and if necessary evacuate the injured people and take them aboard the helicopter to the nearest medical resource.”

The yacht is heading towards Oakland, San Francisco Bay, under secondary steering and is expected to reach land within two or three days.” – http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk

No one has ever attempted to journey to the core of an active volcano. Until now! Sir Richard Branson, Tom Hanks, Seth Green & Barbara Kopple go on the first expedition

News

Richard Branson launches journeys to the centre of the Earth through Virgin Volcanic

Republic of Vanuatu

Richard Branson launches journeys to the centre of the Earth through Virgin Volcanic. Academy Award winning actor Tom Hanks to join first expedition.

Only 500 people have been to space, only three people have been to the bottom of the ocean, but no one has ever attempted to journey to the core of an active volcano. Until now.

Using patented carbon-carbon materials pioneered for deep space exploration, Virgin is proud to announce a revolutionary new vehicle, VVS1, which will be capable of plunging three people into the molten lava core of an active volcano.


In its first three years of operation, Virgin Volcanic‘s VVS1 will target the five most active volcanoes in the world:

•    Etna – Sicily, Italy
•    Stromboli – Aeolian Islands
•    Yasur – Republic of Vanuatu
•    Ambrym – Republic of Vanuatu
•    Tinakula – Solomon Islands

Sir Richard Branson will go on the first expedition along with Tom Hanks, Academy Award winning actor and star of Joe Versus the Volcano; Black Eyed Peas recording artist and science enthusiast Will.i.am; actor/producer Seth Green; and two-time Academy Award winning documentary filmmaker Barbara Kopple.

Virgin registered Virgin Volcanic in the late 1990s in anticipation of the development of technology to explore active volcanoes.

Sir Richard said: “I have a long held a fascination with volcanoes having read Jules Verne’s Journey to the Centre of the Earth as a young boy. I decided that one day I would go there too. Alongside our adventures with Virgin Galactic and Virgin Oceanic, volcanoes are the next great unexplored terrain. What can I say, I lava challenge!”

Tom Hanks said: “A window seat for a journey to the liquid core of our home planet would be a bargain at twice the price.”

Documentary filmmaker Barbara Kopple has closed a deal with Virgin Produced to direct a documentary around the Virgin Volcanic project utilising groundbreaking 3D technology called VD. Additionally, recording artist (and passenger) Will.i.am plans to record the first volcanic soundtrack for the film, recorded entirely inside a live active volcano. The soundtrack will be released in conjunction with the documentary.

Volcanologist Frederick Smith, based in the Republic of Vanuatu currently conducting preliminary tests on Yasur, added: “The project will derive important scientific results to help control and monitor active volcanoes. It is believed a new level of the Volcanic Explosivity Index could be found above and beyond the current high of Level 8 – Supervolcanic.”

The team behind Virgin Volcanic believes going to the core of the five most active volcanoes is just the first step. In future this technology can be developed as a clean, safe and fast alternative to trans- continental commercial aviation. By taking the heat from molten lava Virgin Volcanic plans to develop a totally renewable energy source to power the VVS1. It is seen as a way to literally fulfill Richard Branson’s philosophy of screwing business as usual. This would involve going through the Earth rather than round it. Experts predict that one could travel from Hawaii to Naples in a couple of hours via the molten lava flows, with passengers boarding and disembarking from a network of “Earthports” close to the world’s volcanoes.

Seth Green is among a long list of Early Volcanauts, including Arnold Schwarzenegger and Stephen Hawking, who have put down the $1m deposit to reserve an early seat. Seth Green commented: “Ever since filming Austin Powers, I’ve had this obsession with underground layers. Ive waited patiently for Sir Richard to make the dream of traveling to the Earth’s core a reality.”

The first Virgin Volcanic trips are scheduled for 2015. Go to virginvolcanic.com to find out more. Do you have what it takes to join the Virgin Volcanic back-up team? Tell us why below, or use the #virginvolcanic hashtag.

By Greg Rose. Senior Content & Marketing Executive, Virgin Group Digital. Tweets @greglrose

  • Have Your Say

Recommendations

Deal Of The Day

DEAL OF THE DAY – Need to grab a quick flight? Virgin Americais here with plenty of discount offers…
Airfare, Flight Deals & Fares To Fly By | Virgin America
http://www.virginamerica.com
Discount tickets, flight deals and fares to fly by. See this week’s special prices on flights in our Price To Fly Act.

Good deal? Leave us a comment on Facebook.

This site is an open forum for users to post content so, although we hope users will behave appropriately, we can’t take responsibility for what they post and we have to state that user content is not the view of Virgin.com or any Virgin company. If you object to any content, please let us know straight away at our contact us page. If you are posting content, please make sure you comply with our terms and conditions to avoid causing offence or harm to other users or to Virgin. Please also read our community guidelines. Thanks!

Incredible stuff, especially after one realises the 1st of April is not until tomorrow…..See: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2123133/British-billionaire-Richard-Branson-plans-trip-centre-Earth-James-Cameron-beats-deepest-point-planet.html

Epidemic in China: 4 dead, 11,000 ill with Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD)

Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) has killed four people and sickened more than 11,000 others in South China’s Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, and more people are likely to be affected by the disease as it enters its peak, health authorities said Saturday. During the first quarter this year, a total of 11,757 HFMD cases have been reported in Guangxi, up 38.24 percent from the same period last year, the Guangxi regional health department said in a statement. The infectious disease has plagued other areas in China. Central Hunan province has seen a surge in cases of hand-foot-mouth disease since the beginning of this month, with over 1,000 cases reported over the past week, according to local health authorities. Also 20 children of a kindergarten in Hong Kong have been infected by the disease. Hong Kong’s Center for Health Protection said the patients, 13 boys and seven girls from two to five years old, started to show symptoms of HFMD since March 23. Children under three years old are especially susceptible to break-outs of HFMD. The disease starts with a slight fever followed by blisters and ulcers in the mouth and rashes on the hands and feet. The HFMD virus is usually transmitted through digestive and respiratory systems or through intimate contact. China’s Ministry of Health on Monday issued a statement, urging local governments of all levels to intensify the prevention and control of HFMD as well as other infectious diseases. Ministry figures showed that, in February, China’s mainland reported over 467,000 cases of infectious disease and 1,246 related deaths, of which 11 people died of HFMD. The Guangxi regional disease control and prevention center has since intensified training among medical workers in handling the disease and strengthened advertisement among the people about the disease. Health authorities in Hunan have ordered measures to closely monitor and prevent cases of the disease, especially at primary schools and kindergartens. South China’s Hainan province also kicked off a one-month campaign on March 20 to inspect prevention and control work of the disease. – RSOE