Marianas/ Guam/ Micronesia: Tropical Depression ThirtyOne 31W 211500Z position near 8.5N 157.2E, moving W at 12kt (JTWC) – Published 21 Oct 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression THIRTYONE 31W

Expected to become a Tropical Storm by 22 Oct, 0:00 UTC  and eventually intensify  to a storm equiv to a CAT4 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by  25 Oct, 12:00 UTC (TSR)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 9 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Depression 31W (Thirtyone) Warning #01
Issued at 21/1500Z

wp3118

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202121ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 8.4N 157.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 157.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 8.9N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 9.8N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 11.0N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 12.1N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 14.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 16.2N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 18.8N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 157.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 31W (THIRTYONE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 812 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 202130).//
NNNN

000
WWMY80 PGUM 202330
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
930 AM ChST Sun Oct 21 2018

GUZ001>004-220000-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
930 AM ChST Sun Oct 21 2018

…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD IMPACT THE MARIANAS BY MIDWEEK…

A tropical disturbance is currently located just northwest of
Kosrae, near 8N160E or about

1080 miles east-southeast of Saipan
1087 miles east-southeast of Tinian
1085 miles east-southeast of Rota
1100 miles east-southeast of Guam
1180 miles southeast of Pagan

The disturbance is the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It is moving slowly westward
and is expected to strengthen as it approaches the Marianas early
this week.

There is considerable uncertainty as to the exact track and strength
of the system. Current computer model data indicate that the center
of the system could track anywhere from near Guam to north of Saipan
and some models indicate that it may even pass east of the Mariana
Islands.

Residents of Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands
should keep informed of the latest forecasts and statements from the
National Weather Service and your local emergency management office.
The latest weather forecasts and advisories are available on the WFO
Guam website at WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/

$$

Ziobro/Guard

TD
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 21 October 2018

Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N8°30′ (8.5°)
E158°05′ (158.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°55′ (9.9°)
E154°25′ (154.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Oct, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression THIRTYONE is currently located near 8.4 N 157.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 25kts (29 mph). THIRTYONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Guam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 38N 161E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 161E TO 38N 167E 37N 175E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 161E TO 31N 153E 26N 146E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 08.5N 158.1E MARSHALLS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 09.9N 154.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 145E 42N 143E
47N 152E 50N 155E 50N 165E 46N 165E 45N 180E 34N 180E 34N 160E 40N
160E 40N 145E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 52N 152E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 40N 134E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 41N 179E ESE 25 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 37N 175E TO 36N 178E 36N 180E.
REMARKS.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

=============================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Mexico / Pacific Ocean: Hurricane WILLA 24E 211000Z position near 16.3N 106.5W, moving NW 06kt (JTWC) – Updated 21 Oct 2018 1415Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE WILLA 24E

WILLA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

…WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY MORNING……

Interests along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland
Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa – NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z  IS 19 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

 Hurricane 24E (Willa) Warning #05
Issued at 21/1000Z

ep2418

 

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTPN31 PHNC 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
210600Z — NEAR 16.0N 106.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 106.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 16.8N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 17.6N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 18.7N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 19.8N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 22.3N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z — 26.9N 101.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
211000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 106.5W.
HURRICANE 24E (WILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1161 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

 

 

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 210841
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

…WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY MORNING…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.2N 106.5W
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland
Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 106.5 West. Willa is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected by late Sunday and Monday.
Willa is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and approach
the coast of west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Willa is expected to become a major hurricane by
Monday morning.

Willa is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Oct, 2018 9:00 GMT

Hurricane WILLA is currently located near 16.2 N 106.5 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). WILLA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. WILLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ24 KNHC 210840 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT… 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT…GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Guatemala/ Mexico / Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm Vicente 23E 201600Z position near 14.3N 93.7W, moving WNW 06kt (JTWC) – Published 20 Oct 2018 1842Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Vicente 23E

…SMALL-SIZED VICENTE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD…
…HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…NHC

Guatemala and Mexico be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 9 FEET

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 23E (Vicente) Warning #05
Issued at 20/1600Z

ep2318

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 14.3N 93.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 93.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 14.2N 94.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 13.5N 96.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 13.3N 98.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 13.8N 100.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 16.5N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 19.0N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 93.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1705 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND
211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E (TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 201444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

…SMALL-SIZED VICENTE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD…
…HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.3N 93.6W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM WSW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI…270 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Vicente.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 93.6 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general track
with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast during the next
36 to 48 hours. After that time, a turn to the northwest is
anticipated.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Through Thursday morning, Vicente is expected to produce
3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches across
southwest Guatemala and the Pacific coast of southern Mexico. This
rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Oct, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm VICENTE is currently located near 13.7 N 92.5 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). VICENTE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guatemala
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ23 KNHC 201443 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.2N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 96.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z…DISSIPATED

FZPN02 KWBC 201725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.LOW 51N157W 973 MB MOVING N 20 KT WILL TURN NW AFTER 24 HOURS.
WITHIN 120 NM S AND SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 TO
32 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT…AND 180 NM W AND SW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM NE…600 NM SE…360 NM SW…AND 180 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 24 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N161W 970 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
52N TO 60N BETWEEN 143W AND 158W AND 180 NM E OF FRONT FRONT
FROM 59N141W TO 53N141W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 22
FT…EXCEPT E OF FRONT SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 60N161W 987 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 420 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 53N174W 990 MB MOVING SE 30 KT. WITHIN 480 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N159W 989 MB. WITHIN 480 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N149W 990 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM AND 720 NM
S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 19 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N165E 1006 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND 240
NM E QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N180W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N162E 1006 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE AND 240
NM N QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N175E 1004 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 53N137W 996 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
58N140W TO LOW TO 53N137W TO 47N138W TO 40N142W. WITHIN 240 NM E
OF FRONT S OF LOW AND 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF LOW WINDS 25 TO 35
KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT…HIGHEST N OF LOW.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 38N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW INLAND 64N146W 993 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
N OF 55N BETWEEN 136W AND 150W AREA OF SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 19 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND WITH ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 58N166W 993 MB MOVING SW 10 KT. BETWEEN 180 NM AND 420 NM W
QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N170W 995 MB. WITHIN 300 NM W QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH
LOW 60N161W IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.HIGH 48N135W 1028 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH INLAND NEAR 56N125W 1026 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MOVED INLAND.

.HIGH 39N133W 1025 MB MOVING S 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N135W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH NEAR 30N173E 1022 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 30N179E 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH 42N165E 1022 MB MOVING SE 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N178E 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N165W 1021 MB.

.FORECASTER ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM WILLA NEAR 14.8N 105.7W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
20 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 120 NM SE
AND 75 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 15.3N 107.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND
180 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 16.6N 108.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 75 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 17.7N 109.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 19.0N 109.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE WILLA NEAR 22.0N 107.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 14.3N 93.6W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
20 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. REMAINDER WATERS WITHIN 120 NM
SE AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 13.5N 96.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OF GREATER
WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER AREA
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 13.8N 100.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 20 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 45 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VICENTE NEAR 16.5N 103.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE NEAR 19.0N 106.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N128W TO 02N120W TO 03.4S113W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N121W TO 01N112W TO 03.4S103W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S118W TO 02N110W TO
03.4S91W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W…INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 16N95W TO 14N95.5W…
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SAT OCT 20…

.TROPICAL STORM VICENTE…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30
NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W.

.TROPICAL STORM WILLA…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
TO 19N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 13N91W. IT RESUMES FROM 14N95W TO
15N102W. THEN RESUMES FROM 14N110W TO 08N122W. ITCZ FROM 08N122W
TO 08N127W TO BEYOND 11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
03N TO 08N E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N
TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 132W.

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 21 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 22 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 09N162E 1009 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER NE CIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 15N TO 03N W
OF 169E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF FORECAST AREA NEAR 10N157W 1007
MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM OF
CENTER NE SEMICIRCLE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 12N156E 1004 MB. ASSOCIATED WINDS
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.LOW NEAR 11N147W 1008 MB MOVING NW SLOWLY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 15N TO 05N BETWEEN 150W AND 140W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 13N149W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 14N148W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
16N144W. ASSOCIATED WINDS INCLUDED BELOW.

.TROUGH FROM 26N154W TO 30N153W NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED
TSTMS INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 25N145W TO 30N142W MOVING NW SLOWLY. ASSOCIATED
TSTMS INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH JUST N OF FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N174E 1022 MB MOVING E
SLOWLY. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO 28N179W TO 29N174W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 30N179W 1021 MB. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO
30N170W AND FROM HIGH TO 23N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 28N174E 1021 MB. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO
25N164E.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N149W TO 07N157W TO 08N164W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH
AXIS.

.ITCZ FROM 08N164W TO 08N175W TO 05N175E. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE.

.OTHERWISE WINDS E TO NE 20 TO 25 KT FROM 20N TO 14N BETWEEN
165E AND 179W…AND ALSO FROM 17N TO 13N BETWEEN 147W AND 140W.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS INCREASING TO SE TO S 20 TO 25 KT OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 24N W OF 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS E TO NE 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 14N
BETWEEN 150W AND 140W. ALSO WINDS S TO SW 20 TO 25 KT OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N W OF 167E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS SE TO NE 20 TO 30 KT FROM 18N TO 14N
BETWEEN 155W AND 140W. REMAINING WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR
LESS.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 19N TO 03N BETWEEN 162E AND 177W…AND
ALSO FROM 18N TO 02N BETWEEN 150W AND 140W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 17N TO 11N BETWEEN 152W
AND 142W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 21N TO 11N BETWEEN 154W
AND 140W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 09N150W TO 06N159W TO 07N168W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE.

.OTHERWISE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N146W TO 23N152W TO 17N162W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 17N TO 05N BETWEEN 170E AND
168W…AND ALSO OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 23N W OF 164E.
$$

.FORECASTER BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Yemen/ Oman/ Arabian Sea: Tropical Deep Depression LUBAN 140900Z near 15.9N 51.7°E, moving WNW ~8.09kt/15kmph (RSMC New Delhi) – Updated 14 Oct 2018 1612Z (GMT/UTC)

Deep Depression LUBAN

Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen – IMD

Impacting Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea

INDIA

 

 

IMD

India Meteorological Department
Earth System Science Organisation
(Ministry of Earth Sciences


BULLETIN NO. : 61 (ARB 04/2018)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1630 HOURS IST DATED: 14.10.2018
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)
TO: CONTROL ROOM, NDM, MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS (FAX.NO. 23093750)
CONTROL ROOM NDMA (FAX.NO. 26701729)
CABINET SECRETARIAT (FAX.NO.23012284, 23018638)
PS TO HON’BLE MINISTER FOR S & T AND EARTH SCIENCES (FAX NO.23316745)
SECRETARY, MOES, (FAX NO. 24629777)
H.Q. (INTEGRATED DEFENCE STAFF AND CDS) (FAX NO. 23005137/23005147)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, DOORDARSHAN (23421101)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, AIR (23421105, 23421219)
PIB MOES (FAX NO. 23389042)
UNI (FAX NO. 23355841)
D.G. NATIONAL DISASTER RESPONSE FORCE (NDRF) (FAX NO. 24363261)
DIRECTOR, PUNCTUALITY, INDIAN RAILWAYS (FAX NO. 23388503)
CHIEF SECRETARY, TAMILNADU (FAX NO. 044-25672304)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KERALA (FAX NO. 0471-2327176)
ADMINISTRATOR, LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS (FAX NO. 04896-262184)
ADMINISTRATOR, UNION TERRITORY OF DAMAN & DIU AND DADRA NAGAR HAVELI (0260-2230775)
CHIEF SECRETARY, KARNATAKA (FAX NO. 080-22258913)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GOA (FAX NO. 0832-2415201)
CHIEF SECRETARY, MAHARASHTRA (FAX NO. 022- 22028594)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GUJARAT (FAX NO. 079-23250305)
Sub: Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ weakened into a deep depression over Yemen
The Cyclonic Storm ‘LUBAN’ over coastal Yemen moved further west-northwestwards during
past 06 hours with a speed of 15 kmph, weakened into a deep depression and lay centered at 1430
hrs IST of today, the 14th October 2018 over Yemen near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 51.7°E, about
40 km west-southwest of Al-Ghaidah (Yemen). It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and
weaken further into a depression during next 6 hours.
(i) Wind warning
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely over coastal areas of
east Yemen & adjoining areas of Oman, Gulf of Aden and westcentral Arabian Sea during next
06 hours and it is very likely to decrease thereafter.
(ii) Sea condition
The sea condition will be rough to very rough over westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south
Oman and Yemen coasts and also over adjoining areas of Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours. It
will improve rapidly thereafter.
(iii) Fishermen Warning
The fishermen are advised not to venture into westcentral Arabian Sea along & off south Oman
and Yemen coasts and also into Gulf of Aden during next 06 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST 14th October, 2018.
(Naresh Kumar)
Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi
Copy to: CRS, Pune/ RSMC Guwahati/ ACWC Chennai/ Kolkata/ Mumbai/MC Goa/ Thiruvanathapuram/ Bengaluru/ CWC Ahmedabad.

SOURCE (.PDF File): http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

OMAN

Alert No. (6)
Tropical System in Arabian Sea
Category: Tropical Storm (Luban)
Issuing time: 11 pm
Date: 13th October 2018
Issuing No: 10
Due to potential of heavy rainfall accompanied by fresh winds and probability of flash floods over Governorate of Dhofar, The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices to take fully precautions and to avoid the low lying areas ,wadi`s and riding the sea during this period and to follow its latest weather bulletins.
Latest updates:
Center of tropical storm (Luban): lat. 15.0 N and Long 53.4 E
Distance from Salalah city: 240 km
Wind speed around the center: 45 to 55 Knots (83 – 102 Km/h)
The tropical storm (Luban) continues moving west towards Yemen’s coasts. Dhofar Governorate is likely continuing to be affected by heavy rain, thundershower at times on Sunday, and 14th of October 2018 with easterly to southeasterly fresh wind of 30-45 Knots (56-83 km/h) and gusting to gale wind over mountainous areas. The sea continues to be rough state with maximum wave of 6 to 8 meters.
The chances for indirect impact on the southern parts of al-Wusta Governorate continues with scattered rain and easterly to southeasterly moderate winds of 20 to 25 Knots (37-46 km/h) on Sunday , 14th of October 2018.
The alert will be updated every 12 hours.

download

 

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 05A (Luban) Warning #26 Final Warning
Issued at 14/0900Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 15.8N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 16.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF (WTIO31 PGTW 140900).//
NNNN

Other

DrR Yemen L

(Image: @RoshinRowjee )

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 140900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 14 OCTOBER 2018.

PART:-I NIL
PART:-II

THE CYCLONIC STORM LUBAN OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KMPH
AND CROSSED YEMEN COAST NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 52.2
DEG E ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH DURING 1100 – 1130 HRS IST OF
TODAY WITH AN ESTIMATED SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 70-80 KMPH
GUSTING TO 90 KMPH. IT LAY CENTERED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE
14TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER COASTAL YEMEN NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 52.1 DEG E, ABOUT 20 KM SOUTH OF AL-GHAIDAH (YEMEN). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 6 HOURS.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 72 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N
SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 72 DEG E NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E : NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E TO N OF 4 DEG N W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)E OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 4 DEG N S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 60 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 60 DEG E 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E:
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 64 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 14 DEG N (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N : W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-W OF 55 DEG E :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: W OF 55 DEG E :8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG TO E OF 61 DEG E 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)E OF 88 DEG E TO S OF 6 DEG N
ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 89 DEG E E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 69 DEG E S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE W OF 86 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 14 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 14 DEG N 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 15 DEG N SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 18 DEG N FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
II)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N 4-3 NM RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

++++

OMAN

OMAN MARINE FORECAST FOR COASTAL WATERS

ISSUED AT 0600 ON 14/10/2018

AND VALID FROM 14/0600 TO 14/1800 UTC

REGIONAL SYNOPSIS: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SULTANATE.

WEATHER: CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS

WITH CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING: ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL

STORM LUBAN ALONG THE ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS & VISIBILITY DETAILS FOLLOWS:

MUSANDAM WEST MUSANDAM EAST

WIND: VRB 05-12 KT WIND: SE/S 06-12 KT

SEA: SLT 1.0 M SEA: SLT 1.25 M

SWELL: NE 0.25 M SWELL: S/SE 0.25 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

BAYAH-MUSCAT MUSCAT VICINITY

WIND: NE TO VRB 03-10 KT WIND: SE TO NE 03-12 KT

SEA: SLT 0.5 M SEA: SLT 0.75 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: E 0.5 KT

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MUSCAT-SUR SUR-MASIRAH

WIND: NE TO VRB 02-08 KT WIND: NE TO SE 08-18 KT

SEA: SLT 0.75 M SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M

SWELL: E 0.5 KT SWELL: S 1.5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN.

MASIRAH-MADRAKAH MADRAKAH-ALJAZIR

WIND: E/SE 10-20 KT WIND: E/SE 15-25 KT

SEA: MOD TO ROUGH 2.0-3.0 M SEA: ROUGH 3.0 M

SWELL: S 1.5-2.5 M SWELL: SE 3.0 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED RAIN.

ALJAZIR-SADAH SADAH-DHALKUT

WIND: E/SE 15-35 KT WIND: SE/E 25-40 KT

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH 6-8 M

SWELL: E 2-4 M SWELL: E/SE 3-5 M

VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM VISIBILITY: 3-5 NM

WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.WEATHER: PARLY CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAIN.

OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS WITH CHANCE OF

HEAVY RAIN AND FRESH WINDS.

WARNING:

ROUGH SEA CONDITION EXPECTED DURING TROPICAL STORM LUBAN ALONG THE

ARABIAN SEA COASTS.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: AL-SHEDHANY. FORECASTER TELEPHONE: 24354661

 

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

United States: Major Hurricane Michael CAT4 10/1900Z 30.4N 85.3W, moving NNE 15mph/ ~13.03kt 922mb (NHC FL) – Updated 10 Oct 2018 1935Z (GMT/UTC)

 

MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL

Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

…MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE… NHC

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

 

National Hurricane Center

152003_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind1

STORM SURGE WARNING GRAPHIC (Link)

TORNADOES (see below)

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101737
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…919 MB…27.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Alabama/Florida border.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of Chassahowitzka.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of
Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward
the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday
through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael
will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and
across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight.
Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United
States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic
coast away from the United States on Friday.

Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United
States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the
western Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently
reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near
Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to
129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.41 inches).

A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University
of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL…9-14 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL…6-9 ft
Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL…6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL…4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay…2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck…2-4 ft

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue
to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and
tonight.

With the landfall of Michael’s eye occurring, everyone in the
landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm
of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye
passes!

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday…

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia…3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast…1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida
Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.
This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern
South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100848
TCPAT4

000
WTNT64 KNHC 101854
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…2 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE…
…EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST
OF PANAMA CITY…
…LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE…

Radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is moving inland over
portions of Bay and Calhoun counties in the Florida Panhandle.
Everyone in these areas is reminded not to venture out into the
relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very
quickly as the eye passes!

Recently reported wind gusts include:

Tyndall Air Force Base: 119 mph (191 km/h)
Florida State University Panama City Campus: 116 mph (187 km/h)
University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 104 mph (167 km/h)
Panama City Treatment Plant: 94 mph (151 km/h)
Panama City Beach National Ocean Service: 78 mph (126 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 7.7 feet of inundation above
ground level.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT…1900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.4N 85.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM ENE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…922 MB…27.22 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

SPC

TORNADOES

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected…Portions of central and southern GA…north
FL…and southern SC

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 101729Z – 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent

SUMMARY…A tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon across
portions of central and southeast Georgia, and perhaps including
parts of north Florida and southern South Carolina. A tornado
threat will spread to the northeast as Hurricane Michael tracks
toward southwest Georgia by early evening, after making landfall
early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION…Trends in mosaic radar imagery suggest a new outer rain
band may be developing across southeast into south-central GA (from
approximately 25 WSW KSSI to 25 WSW KMCN). The combination of
high-moisture-content air (surface dew points in the middle 70s) and
surface heating, given the presence of filtered sunshine through
high thin cirrus on the northeast periphery of Michael, is resulting
in moderate instability. Meanwhile, trends in low-level shear per
VAD profile at Valdosta, GA adjusted for storm motions of embedded
cells in the rain bands indicated steady strengthening, with 0-1 km
SRH approaching 300 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear around 40 kt. This
strengthening trend is expected to persist through the afternoon and
evening and expand northward and east some across central and
eastern GA into adjacent southern SC, and perhaps north FL, as
Michael tracks toward southwest GA. This high low-level shear
environment favors an increasing tornado threat and the need for a
tornado watch to the north and northeast of WW 406.

..Peters/Guyer.. 10/10/2018

…Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…CHS…CAE…JAX…FFC…TAE…BMX…

LAT…LON 31888448 31508509 33078472 33558396 33538277 33418140
33398098 32528062 31678085 30768128 30208157 29938224
29858269 30928290 31848305 31888448

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2018 17:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane MICHAEL is currently located near 29.9 N 85.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). MICHAEL is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MICHAEL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 7 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 70% in about 67 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 31 hours
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 43 hours
    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 43 hours
    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 43 hours
    Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 19 hours
    Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 31 hours
    Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 43 hours
    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 7 hours
    Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 31 hours
    Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 43 hours
    Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 43 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 67 hours
    Atlanta (33.8 N, 84.4 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 19 hours
    Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 43 hours
    St John’s (47.5 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 67 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 50% in about 67 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 19 hours
    Fredericksburg (38.2 N, 77.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 43 hours
    Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 43 hours
    Belmar (40.1 N, 74.1 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 43 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 67 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 67 hours
    Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 43 hours
    Baltimore (39.5 N, 76.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 43 hours
    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 67 hours
    Roanoke (37.0 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 31 hours
    Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 43 hours
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 43 hours
    New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 43 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

OTHER

Contact Numbers

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZNT24 KNHC 101452
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-110300-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS…Major Hurricane Michael near 29.4N 86.0W 928 mb at
11 AM EDT moving NNE at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt
with gusts to 150 kt. Michael is expected to make landfall as a
Category 4 hurricane along the central panhandle of Florida this
afternoon, then accelerate off to the NE tonight. Conditions
will gradually improve in the NE Gulf Thu through Fri as Michael
moves quickly towards the Cape Hatteras and Tidewater areas. A
cold front will push into the NW Gulf behind the exiting Michael
tonight and Thu and reach from the Florida Panhandle to west-
central Gulf by early Sat.

$$

GMZ011-110300-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in E swell.
.TONIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E swell.
.THU…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN…SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ013-110300-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. W of 90W, NW winds 10 to
15 kt. Elsewhere, W to NW winds 45 to 50 kt, diminishing to
35 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft in NE to E swell,
subsiding to 11 to 17 ft in NE to E swell towards evening.
Scattered squalls and thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt W of 90W, and W to NW 20 to
25 kt elsewhere. Seas 9 to 13 ft in NE to E swell, subsiding to
6 to 8 ft in NE swell late.
.THU…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ015-110300-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. S of 27N, S to SW winds
25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Elsewhere, SW winds 100 to 120 kt,
diminishing to 45 to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 to 36 ft,
subsiding to 18 to 27 ft in the afternoon. Frequent squalls and
thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SW to W winds
25 to 30 kt. S of 27N, seas 7 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, seas 10 to
16 ft, subsiding to 7 to 11 ft late. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
.THU…W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-110300-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…SE to S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NE towards
evening. Seas 6 to 9 ft in NE to E swell.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E
swell.
.THU…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN…SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ019-110300-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE swell.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell.
.THU…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ021-110300-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W swell.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW to N
swell.
.THU…SW to W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NW to N swell.
.THU NIGHT…W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ023-110300-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE swell.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE swell.
Scattered showers.
.THU…S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E in the afternoon. Seas
4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers.
.THU NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

GMZ025-110300-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018
.TODAY…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in N to NE swell.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in N to NE
swell.
.THU…E winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to N to NE late in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft in N to NE swell. Scattered showers.
.THU NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.

$$

Forecaster Stripling

000
FZNT02 KNHC 101602
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 12.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MICHAEL NEAR 29.4N 86.0W 928 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 10
MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…80 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 120 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE…
240 NM SE QUADRANT AND 210 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 44 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 24N E OF 89W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 24N WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT
IN N TO NE SWELL. FREQUENT SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E
OF 88W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL INLAND NEAR 33.6N
82.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…60
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. N OF 28N E OF 86W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL OVER ATLC
WATERS NEAR 38.7N 71.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT…240
NM SE QUADRANT…180 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT.
OVER GULF WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL NEAR 45.5N
52.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL NEAR 49.0N
29.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL MICHAEL NEAR
50.0N 13.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

…ATLC HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE LESLIE NEAR 27.8N 42.3W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 10
MOVING SSE OR 150 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE
QUADRANT…90 NM SE QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 240 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT…
270 NM SE QUADRANT…240 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 540 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM
NW AND 270 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 17N E OF 63W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LESLIE NEAR 28.4N 39.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 360 SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36
FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH NADINE…
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 16N E OF 59W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LESLIE NEAR 30.7N 31.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 1200 NM N
AND 360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. EXCEPT AS NOTED
WITH NADINE…ELSEWHERE N OF 12N E OF 52W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 31.5N 23.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 29.5N 22.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 27.0N 26.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

…ATLC TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEAR 12.6N 31.6W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
10 MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE
QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEAR 14.6N 32.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND
30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NE AND 30
NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM FROM 11N TO
20N E OF 37W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEAR 16.5N 35.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM N QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE
AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 20N E OF 42W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE NEAR 17.5N 39.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC N OF 26N W OF 79W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT ALONG
31N. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS BETWEEN 71W AND
80W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH MICHAEL…N OF 29N W OF
75W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH MICHAEL…N OF 30N BETWEEN
73W AND 76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Bay Of Bengal: VSCS TITLI 10/0900Z near 17.2°N 85.5°E, moving N ~9.71kt 990hpa (RSMC New Delhi, India) – Published 10 Oct 2018 1155Z (GMT/UTC)

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TITLI

TITLI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24 FEET – JTWC

INDIA

RSMC NEW DELHI

ftrack

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 20
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) NATIONAL CENTRE
FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1030 UTC OF 10.10.2018 BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10.10.2018.
(A) VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, ‘LUBAN’ OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA:
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT
0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, NEAR LATITUDE 14.4°N AND
LONGITUDE 58.7°E, ABOUT 570 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316), 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS (41494) AND 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AL-GHAIDAH (41398). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS YEMEN & SOUTH
OMAN COASTS DURING NEXT 4 DAYS.
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER 2018, THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM IS T4.5. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AS BETWEEN LATITUDE 11.0°N & 18.5°N AND BETWEEN LONGITUDE
55.5°E & 61.0°E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93°C. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 984 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 75 KNOTS.
STATE OF SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
10.10.18/0900 14.4/58.7 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1200 14.5/58.6 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1800 14.6/58.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0000 14.7/58.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0600 14.8/57.8 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/1800 14.9/57.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/0600 15.0/56.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/1800 15.1/55.4 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13.10.18/0600 15.2/54.4 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
13.10.18/1800 15.2/52.9 120-130 GUSTING TO 145 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
14.10.18/0600 15.2/51.1 110-120 GUSTING TO 130 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
14.10.18/1800 15.0/48.3 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
(B) VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘TITLI’ OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL:
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘TITLI’ OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 18 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY
CANTERED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2°N AND LONGITUDE 85.5°E, ABOUT 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR
(43049) AND 190 KM SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (43105). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
CROSS ODISHA & ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN GOPALPUR &
KALINGAPATNAM AROUND MORNING OF 11TH OCTOBER. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARDS, MOVE TOWARDS GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ACROSS ODISHA AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
AS PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER, INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS T 4.5. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.5°N & 21.0°N AND LONGITUDE 81.5°E & 90.0°E.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93°C. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
990 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH
AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
10.10.18/0900 17.2/85.5 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1200 17.4/85.3 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
10.10.18/1800 18.0/85.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0000 18.6/84.9 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/0600 19.3/84.8 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
11.10.18/1800 20.5/85.5 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
12.10.18/0600 21.8/87.0 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP DEPRESSION
12.10.18/1800 23.1/88.7 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 1 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE
THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 2 FROM 12TH OCTOBER AND WILL REMAIN IN SAME PHASE TILL 15TH .
AMPLITUDE WILL REMAIN MORE THAN 1 TILL 15TH OCTOBER. IT WILL BECOME LESS THAN 1 FROM 15TH
ONWARDS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION &
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (AS) DURING THE PERIOD 10TH-
15TH, IT WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) DURING 12TH-15TH.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER AS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
IS 29-310C OVER SOUTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL AS. IT IS AROUND 26-290C OVER WESTCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AS. THE SST IS DECREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS OMAN COAST. HOWEVER IT IS
INCREASING TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2
OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AS. IT IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 TO THE NORTH OF
17.00 N AND WEST OF 60.00E. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS AROUND 300 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VORTICITY ZONE IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS NOW ABOUT 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER 20 X10-5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LOW (05-10 KT) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALSO ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND THERE IS COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION NEAR
OMAN AND YEMEN COASTS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 170 N. HENCE,AS THE
SYSTEM MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS IT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR,
WARMER SST & LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM LAND AREAS.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 30-310C OVER WESTCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BOB. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF SOUTH &
CENTRAL BOB AND BECOMING LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH BOB. LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY HAS NOW INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 250 X10-5 SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
VORTICITY ZONE IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 X 10-5 SEC-1 TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LOW (05-10 KT) TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE . THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION TO THE CORE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 180 N. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY INDICATING NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NCMRWF UNIFIED MODELS (NCUM),
NCMRWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (NEPS), IMD GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS), NCEP GFS,
SUGGEST GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARDS SOUTH ODISHA COAST AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
AND NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AFTER LANDFALL.
(SUNITHA DEVI)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM (LUBAN)
14.4N/58.7 at 0900 UTC
Very SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM (TITLI)
17.2N/85.5E at 0900 UTC
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2018 6:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm TITLI is currently located near 17.0 N 85.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). TITLI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TITLI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Puri (19.9 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06B (Titli) Warning #05
Issued at 10/0900Z

io0618

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 17.0N 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 85.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.2N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 19.4N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 20.1N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 21.0N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 85.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED
A 18-NM RAGGED EYE AS IT MAINTAINED EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS THAT WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION THAT IS ADJUSTED FOR
PARALLAX AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IN THE 100428Z
DIRECT ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM OBJECTIVE
AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.1 TO T5.0 AND REFLECTS
THE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 18 WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF INDIA NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RECEDES.
THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 85 KNOTS NEAR LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 101130

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1100 UTC 10 OCTOBER 2018.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, TITLI IS BEING MONITORED BY THE
COASTAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AT VISAKHAPATNAM, GOPALPUR AND
PARADIP. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM \U2018TITLI\U2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 18 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND
LAY CANTERED AT 1430 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 85.5
DEG E, ABOUT 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR (ODISHA) AND 190 KM
SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ODISHA AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA
PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN GOPALPUR AND KALINGAPATNAM AROUND MORNING OF
11TH OCTOBER. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RE-CURVE
NORTHEASTWARDS, MOVE TOWARDS GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ACROSS ODISHA AND
WEAKEN GRADUALLY (.)

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY
CENTERED AT 1430 HRS IST 10TH OCTOBER 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA, NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 58.7 DEG E, ABOUT 570 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN), 550 KM EASTNORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA
ISLANDS (YEMEN) AND 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AL-GHAIDAH (YEMEN). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS YEMEN AND SOUTH OMAN COASTS DURING NEXT 4 DAYS (.)

PART:-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N :
SW/W-LY 35/45 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO E OF 66 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N :
SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC SW-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE E OF 59 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E TO THE N OF 5 DEG N: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 60 DEG E TO N OF 6 DEG N 3.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 21 DEG N TO W OF 67 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N OF E OF 66 DEG E: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)N OF 21 DEG N: W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 65 DEG E TO S OF 19 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-6.0 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N OF E OF 66 DEG E: W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N: W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 18 DEG N :OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 5.0-9.0 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 91 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 91 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S/SE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)N OF 13 DEG N: OVER14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2.5-6.0 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS –
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 25/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
II)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: -6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.
  

Japan/ South Korea/ China/ North Korea: Tropical Storm KONG-REY 30W 041500Z position nr 26.1N 126.5E, moving NNW 12kt (JTWC) – Updated 04 Oct 2018 1525Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KONG-REY 30W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 30W (Kong-rey) Warning #27
Issued at 04/1500Z

wp30181

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 30W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 25.5N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 126.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 28.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 31.0N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 34.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 38.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 43.6N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 126.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND
051500Z.//
NNNN

Click here for source

 

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 4 October 2018

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 4 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°55′ (25.9°)
E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 650 km (350 NM)
E 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 4 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N26°05′ (26.1°)
E126°25′ (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 650 km (350 NM)
E 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°35′ (26.6°)
E126°05′ (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°00′ (28.0°)
E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°30′ (29.5°)
E125°35′ (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°55′ (30.9°)
E126°00′ (126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

Himawari-8

(30 minute updates)

 

No.25 KONG-REY

Issued at(KST) : 2018.10.04. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2018.10.04. 12:00 Analysis 25.4 126.7 970 35 126 420
(WSW 350)
Strong Medium NNW 21
2018.10.05. 00:00 Forecast 27.6 125.3 970 35 126 410
(W 335)
Strong Medium NNW 25 48
2018.10.05. 12:00 Forecast 30.3 125.0 975 32 115 400
(WNW 320)
Normal Medium N 24 110
2018.10.06. 00:00 Forecast 33.3 127.0 980 29 104 365
(WNW 285)
Normal Medium NE 34 140
2018.10.06. 12:00 Forecast 36.8 131.9 985 27 97 330
(NW 250)
Normal Medium ENE 52 170
2018.10.07. 00:00 Forecast 40.4 138.6 990 24 86 320
(WNW 240)
Weak Medium ENE 57 210
2018.10.07. 12:00 Forecast 43.3 149.7 990 24 86 ENE 81

 

※ It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KONG-REY is currently located near 25.5 N 126.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). KONG-REY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

 

Other

DocR K2
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1825 KONG-REY (1825) 965 HPA
AT 25.5N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 28.0N 125.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 30.9N 126.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 38.3N 132.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 43.4N 149.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon TRAMI 291500Z nr 28.7N 129.1E, moving NE 18kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Sep 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon TRAMI

TRAMI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Okinawa, Ryukyu Islands and mainland Japan beware!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 28W (Trami) Warning #36
Issued at 29/1500Z

 

 

 

wp28183

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 27.9N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 128.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 30.9N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 35.2N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 42 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 40.9N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 129.1E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

 

TY 1824 (Trami)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 29 September 2018

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 29 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N27°55′ (27.9°)
E128°20′ (128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SW 650 km (350 NM)
NE 560 km (300 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 29 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N28°05′ (28.1°)
E128°25′ (128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SW 650 km (350 NM)
NE 560 km (300 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 29 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N29°10′ (29.2°)
E129°30′ (129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area E 310 km (170 NM)
W 260 km (140 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N30°40′ (30.7°)
E131°10′ (131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area E 350 km (190 NM)
W 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N32°35′ (32.6°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (27 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area E 390 km (210 NM)
W 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°50′ (34.8°)
E136°05′ (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area SE 430 km (230 NM)
NW 370 km (200 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

 

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Typhoon Information

No.24 TRAMI

Issued at(KST) : 2018.09.29. 22:00

Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
m/s km/h
2018.09.29. 12:00 Analysis 27.8 128.4 950 43 155 390
(WNW 300)
Strong Medium NE 28
2018.09.30. 12:00 Forecast 36.0 138.2 965 37 133 360
(NW 270)
Strong Medium NE 54 110
2018.10.01. 12:00 Forecast 46.1 153.9 985 27 97 ENE 72

※ It is provided only for the typhoon information in progress. The past information could be found in National Typhoon Center homepage.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2018 12:00 GMT

Typhoon TRAMI is currently located near 27.9 N 128.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). TRAMI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TRAMI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

 

Other

DrR T29
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/
WTJP31 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 128.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 31.5N 131.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 36.5N 137.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


 
===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/ US/ East Pacific: MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA 20E 282100Z 17.7N 117.8W, moving NW ~4.85kt 955mb (NHC FL) – Updated 28 Sep 2018 2120Z (GMT/UTC)

MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA (20E)

Rosa is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

…ROSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING…NHC

MEXICO and US BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET – JTWC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

 

 

 

878
WTPZ35 KNHC 282054
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

…ROSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.7N 117.8W
ABOUT 625 MI…1005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB…28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Rosa.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 117.8 West. Rosa is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
with a slight increase in forward speed by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
anticipated over the next few days, and Rosa could become a
tropical storm by the end of the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Hurricane 20E (Rosa) Warning #14
Issued at 28/1600Z

 

WTPN31 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
281200Z — NEAR 17.0N 117.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 117.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 17.8N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 19.2N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 21.0N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 23.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 26.7N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 31.6N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 117.6W.
HURRICANE 20E (ROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 942 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTPZ25 KNHC 282053 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT…….110NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 118.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 118.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 118.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 118.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.7N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FZPN02 KWBC 281725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 30.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW W OF AREA 42N156E 987 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 33N TO
46N W OF 175E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N161E 984 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 23 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 42N173E 984 MB
AND SECOND CENTER 44N179W 985 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S AND 300 NM SW
QUADRANTS OF FIRST CENTER WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 47N W OF 168W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10
TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N168W 981 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE…480 NM
E…300 NM S AND SW…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 11 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 660 NM SE SEMICIRCLE…AND
360 NM NW AND N QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 55N178E 991 MB MOVING SE 05 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
360 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N178W 988 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND 300 NM
S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW
NW OF AREA 58N175E BELOW.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 57N171W 990 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
600 NM E AND 480 NM N QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16
FT…HIGHEST NEAR 54N161W. ELSEWHERE N OF 56N W OF 164W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 60N174E 984 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 360 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 55N165W TO 61N177W WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 58N175E 989 MB. WITHIN 300 NM
NE AND 240 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 43N158W 986 MB MOVING N 20 KT. WITHIN 660 NM NE…360 NM
SE…300 NM SW…AND 240 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
8 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 59N BETWEEN 143W AND 163W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N161W 990 MB. WITHIN 480 NM N AND NE
QUADRANTS…AND 240 NM S AND SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 45N TO 57N BETWEEN 146W AND
170W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N174W 999 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 300 NM E AND NE OF A LINE FROM 57N166W TO 62N174W WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 40N156W 999 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N151W 996 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S…360 NM
W…AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE 31N TO 45N BETWEEN 147W AND 167W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 40N143W 1000 MB.
WITHIN 420 NM SW AND W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 45N BETWEEN 141W AND 155W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 37N177W 1004 MB. FROM 31N TO 40N
BETWEEN 160W AND 179E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 21 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W AREA
OF N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 46N TO 53N W OF 180W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 150 NM NE OF
A LINE FROM 48N162W TO 55N165W TO 58N172W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
40N168E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 54N TO 57N BETWEEN 157W AND
167W AND WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 58N168W TO 62N175W TO 65N170W
TO 62N167W TO 58N168W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 41N177W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 61N TO 64N BETWEEN 167W AND
173W AND WITHIN 90 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 45N162W TO 49N167W.

.HIGH 53N140W 1027 MB MOVING NW 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 60N149W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N148W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 30N179W 1021 MB MOVING SE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH S OF AREA.

.HIGH 42N178E 1014 MB MOVING SE 30 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 30.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ROSA NEAR 17.2N 117.5W 942 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 28
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT
GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE…90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 210 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 39 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ROSA NEAR 19.2N 118.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 44 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ROSA NEAR 23.0N 118.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM W SEMICIRCLE…130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 140 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER OPEN WATERS WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 16N
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ROSA NEAR 26.7N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ROSA NEAR 26.7N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW PRES NEAR 11N97W 1005 MB. WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
11N98W 1004 MB. WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
11N98W 1003 MB. FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W E WINDS 30 TO
35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
12N100W 1003 MB. FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W E WINDS 3O
TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W…INCLUDING GULF
OF TEHAUNTEPEC…N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REAMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28…

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER
OF ROSA.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
A SEGEMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 11N97W TO 15N107W. ANOTHER SEGMENT REACHES FROM
13N124W TO 09N136W. ITCZ CONTINUES W FROM 09N136W TO BEYOND 140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR
11N97W.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 28 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 29 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 30 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW…DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE…12N152W 1007 MB MOVING W 15
KT. TROUGH FROM 14N150W TO LOW TO 03N162W MOVING W 15 KT. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 210 NM N AND NE QUADRANTS OF LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…13N158W 1006
MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW…LIKELY TROPICAL CYCLONE…13N164W 1004
MB. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT…POSSIBLY TROPICAL STORM FORCE…WITHIN
270 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.

.LOW 10N180E 1009 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 13N168W TO LOW
TO 14N164E MOVING W SLOWLY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS
WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH E OF LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TSTMS ELSEWHERE S OF 14N BETWEEN 168W AND 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 10N175E 1010 MB. TROUGH FROM 14N170W TO
LOW TO 14N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N166E 1010 MB. TROUGH FROM 11N177W TO
LOW.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N148W TO 24N154W…CONTINUING AS A TROUGH TO
18N159W. COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING E SLOWLY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF TROUGH…AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF
FRONT N OF 28N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N143W TO 25N152W.
TROUGH DISSIPATED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH FROM 27N140W TO
25N158W.

.NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 172W AND
178E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT FROM 30N164E TO 29N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N178E TO 27N160E.

48 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT FROM 30N148W TO 29N159W.

.HIGH JUST E OF AREA 29N139W 1020 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. RIDGE
FROM HIGH TO 24N151W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 25N145W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 30N180E 1021 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. RIDGES FROM HIGH TO
28N160E…AND FROM HIGH TO 26N155W…MOVING S SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 27N171W 1020 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 28N163W 1019 MB.

.OTHERWISE…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST
AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 157W AND 174W…AND FROM 13N TO
18N BETWEEN 147W AND 152W
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 155W
AND 160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 13 FT FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 158W
AND 167W. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT N OF A LINE FROM 30N180E TO 26N160E.

.OTHERWISE…SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.

$$

.FORECASTER HOUSTON. HONOLULU HI.=

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Lesser Antilles/ Carribean: Tropical Storm KIRK 27/1800Z 14.0N 59.9W, moving WNW ~11.87kt 1000mb (NHC FL) – Published 27 Sep 2018 1830Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KIRK

…KIRK ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

175022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

868
WTNT32 KNHC 271731
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
200 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

…KIRK ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.0N 59.9W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 90 MI…140 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 59.9 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk
will move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm
Warning area by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of
days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and
into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area in a few hours, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area in a few hours.

RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and
Saturday.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Sep, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KIRK is currently located near 13.0 N 57.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). KIRK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Barbados
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Martinique
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    St. Lucia
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Dominica
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
    Guadeloupe
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Antigua and Barbuda
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours
    Montserrat
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 271451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018
1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 59.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 59.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.3N 61.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.9N 63.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 67.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic Ocean/ UK: Post Tropical Cyclone Helene 16/1500Z 43.8N 25.7W, moving N 25 kt 989mb (NHC)- Updated 16 Sep 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone HELENE/ Storm Helene (UK)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

United Kingdom

Pressure UK 16

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for ‘North East England’, ‘North West England’, ‘Northern Ireland’, ‘South West England’, ‘Strathclyde’, ‘SW Scotland, Lothian Borders’, ‘Wales’, ‘Yorkshire & Humber’

Updated 16 September at 0926 BST

Valid from 1800 BST on Mon 17 September to 0800 BST on Tue 18 September

Storm Helene will bring a spell of strong winds to western parts of the UK in particular late Monday and early Tuesday.

– Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport expected.

– Some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer.

– Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges.

– Some short term loss of power and other services.

– Coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves.

– Some damage to trees is possible, for example large branches or trees falling in a few places.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 161441
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

FQNT21 EGRR 160800
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2018
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER UNTIL 0800
UTC ON MONDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2018

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE
THROUGHOUT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH VIOLENT
STORM FORCE 11 IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 50 MILES
OF THE CENTRE BETWEEN 161800UTC AND 170800UTC. LOW 58
NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01 WEST 984 BY SAME
TIME. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORM FORCE
10 AT TIMES AROUND 50 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM 162200UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. LOW 58 NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01
WEST 984 BY SAME TIME. LOW 61 NORTH 26 WEST 980 EXPECTED
63 NORTH 20 WEST 984 BY THAT TIME. AT 160000UTC, LOW 53
NORTH 38 WEST 1003 EXPECTED 54 NORTH 23 WEST 1001 BY
170000UTC
AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

SOLE
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 AT FIRST EXCEPT IN WEST, OTHERWISE
VARIABLE 4, BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5,
INCREASING 6 TO GALE 8 LATER IN WEST. SLIGHT OR MODERATE,
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT FIRST, FOG PATCHES
DEVELOPING. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

SHANNON ROCKALL
WEST BACKING SOUTH 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH IN ROCKALL.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

BAILEY FAEROES
CYCLONIC, BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST, 5 TO 7, INCREASING
GALE 8 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SQUALLY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

SOUTHEAST ICELAND
SOUTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8 AT FIRST IN NORTHEAST,
OTHERWISE WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR THUNDERY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

EAST NORTHERN SECTION
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES, DECREASING 4
AT TIMES LATER, THEN BECOMING CYCLONIC 4 OR 5,
OCCASIONALLY 6 LATER IN FAR SOUTHEAST. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST OF ICELAND. RAIN
OR SHOWERS, THUNDERY AT TIMES IN NORTH. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR IN NORTH

WEST NORTHERN SECTION
IN NORTHEAST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTH. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHEAST, WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
DECREASING MAINLY 3 OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY
VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR EAST. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT
FIRST, OTHERWISE SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHWEST, NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING VARIABLE 3
OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH. SHOWERS. GOOD.
IN NORTHWEST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 3 OR 4 IN FAR
WEST, OTHERWISE 5 TO 7, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8 LATER IN FAR
NORTH. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH LATER.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

EAST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY, BECOMING CYCLONIC,
4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 EXCEPT IN FAR SOUTHWEST,
OTHERWISE CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 TO STORM 10
FOR A TIME, OCCASIONALLY VIOLENT STORM 11 LATER IN FAR
SOUTHEAST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH OR HIGH
IN FAR SOUTH, OCCASIONALLY VERY HIGH LATER IN SOUTHEAST.
FOG PATCHES AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTH, OTHERWISE RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR AT FIRST

WEST CENTRAL SECTION
IN SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY BACKING NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 IN
FAR SOUTHEAST AT FIRST, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8, OTHERWISE
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES,
OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE 3 OR 4 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTHEAST. RAIN
AT TIMES, SHOWERS LATER IN FAR WEST. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN NORTH, CYCLONIC 5 OR 6, BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

DENMARK STRAIT
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES. SLIGHT
OR MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH IN FAR SOUTH. SLEET OR SNOW
AT TIMES. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES NEAR GRENLAND COAST,
OTHERWISE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8,
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN EAST. MODERATE AT TIMES
NEAR COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN EAST. OCCASIONAL SNOW NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE RAIN AT TIMES. MODERATE OR
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR, BUT VERY POOR AT TIMES NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND

NORTH ICELAND
IN NORTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTHWEST,
OTHERWISE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6
AT TIMES. SLIGHT OR MODERATE. SLEET OR SNOW AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR

NORWEGIAN BASIN
VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT FIRST IN EAST, OTHERWISE SOUTHEASTERLY
5 TO 7, BECOMING CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8, INCREASING SEVERE
GALE 9 OR STORM 10 FOR A TIME. MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH
OR VERY ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN FAR NORTH. RAIN
FOR A TIME, SHOWERS LATER. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY
POOR

OUTLOOK FOR FOLLOWING 24 HOURS:
STORMS EXPECTED IN SOLE, SHANNON, EAST CENTRAL SECTION
AND NORWEGIAN BASIN. GALES OR SEVERE GALES EXPECTED IN
EAST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST
CENTRAL SECTION, DENMARK STRAIT AND NORTH ICELAND
UNSCHEDULED STORM WARNINGS ARE BROADCAST VIA SAFETYNET
AND IN
BULLETIN WONT54 EGRR AVAILABLE VIA SOME INTERNET AND
FTPMAIL
OUTLETS=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Depression Florence 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W, moving W 10mph/ ~8.69 kt 1002mb (NHC/NWS) – Updated 16 Sep 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Florence

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

811
WTNT31 KWNH 161511
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 69
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…34.0N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 81.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the day on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Southeastern…Central and western North Carolina…far northern
South Carolina into far southwest Virginia…

Southeastern North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina:

Additional 3 to 6 inches of rain…with isolated maximum of 8
inches possible…with storm total accumulations of 30 to
40 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Central and Western North Carolina…far northern South Carolina and
far southwest Virginia:

Additional 5 to 10 inches of rain, with storm total accumulations of
15 to 20 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce flash
flooding and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

West-central Virginia:

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across southeast North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Oravec

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 35.3N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 39.7N 80.5W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 40.7N 76.1W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 42.3N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 46.1N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Wilmington, NC Local Tropical Website 508 AM EDT Sun Sep 16

 

Other

 

Category 2 Florence Nears Landfall in North Carolina; Catastrophic Flooding Expected

Dr. Jeff Masters

In Florence’s Grip, No Relief for North Carolina

Bob Henson

Dire Flood Threat for the Carolinas as Florence’s Record Rains Continue

Bob Henson

Florence’s Flood Threat Expands Inland

Bob Henson

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 160852 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1000 MB

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 81.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLORENCE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON FLORENCE CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING
AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China / HongKong/ Macau/ Vietnam/ Philippines: Typhoon Mangkhut (26W) 161500Z 22.3N 111.0E, moving WNW 17kt (JTWC) – Updated 16 Sep 2019 1455Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mangkhut (26W)

MANGKHUT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Mangkhut forecast to move west by north direction at the speed of 30 km/h and is predicted to make landfall in coastal areas from Zhuhai to Wuchuan, Guangdong, around afternoon to the night of September 16 – CMA

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 26W (Mangkhut) Warning #39 Final Warning
Issued at 16/1500Z

wp2618

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 22.1N 111.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 111.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 23.0N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.9N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.9N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 25.8N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 111.0E.
TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM WEST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STILL EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR ITS CENTER, WHICH IS NOW OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161100Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM YANGJIANG, 21 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST, READING 17 KTS AND 971 MB.
WITHOUT TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS, 971 MB WOULD SUPPORT A
69 KT SUSTAINED WINDSPEED. TY 26W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING IT TO
SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION WHILE IT TRACKS OVER LAND. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 26W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND IN
SOUTHERN CHINA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 24, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND HWRF RECURVING THE WEAKENING CYCLONE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AROUND THE STR AXIS, AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS CONTINUING
THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND CALLS FOR 26W TO DISSIPATE AFTER
TAU 36. BASED ON INCREASING TRACK UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 24,
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 24 AND
FAIR AFTERWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

 

JMA logo1822-00 M16 JMA TRACK

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 16 September 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 16 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°10′ (22.2°)
E111°35′ (111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 700 km (375 NM)
W 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°05′ (23.1°)
E108°35′ (108.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°55′ (23.9°)
E106°10′ (106.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY #4 – FINAL
FOR: TYPHOON “MANGKHUT” (FORMERLY “OMPONG”)

 

Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 September 2018
Typhoon “MANGKHUT” (formerly “Ompong”) maintains its strength as it moves closer to Southern China.
Location of Center
(10:00 AM today)
The eye of Typhoon “MANGKHUT” was estimated based on all available data at 705 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR)(21.1°N,115.0°E)    Track
Maximum Sustained Winds 145 km/h near the center
Gustiness Up to 180 km/h
Movement Northwest at 30 km/h
Forecast Positions and Intensities
Tomorrow Morning
17 September 2018
1,315 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR) (22.4°N, 109.3°E)
Tropical Storm
Tuesday Morning
18 September 2018
1,835 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR) (24.1°N, 104.5°E) 
Tropical Depression
  • This typhoon no longer has a direct threat in any part of the country.
With this development, this is the final advisory for this disturbance.  The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast at 4 PM today.

PH Emergency Numbers.jpg

HONG KONG

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45 (HkT)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the southeast quarter.

At 10 p.m., Typhoon Mangkhut was centred about 310 kilometres west of Hong Kong (near 22.1 degrees north 111.2 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 30 kilometres per hour into the inland area of southern China and weaken gradually.

With Mangkhut departing, local winds are weakening gradually. However, many places are still being affected by gale or storm force winds. The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal will remain in force for a period of time. Precautions should not yet be relaxed.

Rainbands of Mangkhut will still bring heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Sea will be high with swells. It is expected that Mangkhut will weaken over inland areas of South China, local winds will moderate further on Monday.

Mangkhut today brought different degrees of damages to Hong Kong. There may be hidden danger. Members of the public should remain on the alert for assurance of personal safety.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Cheung Chau, Sha Chau and Sai Kung were 96, 94 and 74 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts 121, 117 and 91 kilometres per hour respectively.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 18:50

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 6:50 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

topbanner

Red Warning of Typhoon

16-09-2018Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center continued to issue red warning of typhoon at 6:00 a.m. on September 16. This year’s 22th typhoon Mangkhut, (super typhoon scale), was centered over 420 km south of Taishan city, Guangdong at 5:00 a.m. this morning. China Sea (48m/s). The maximum wind intensity registered scale 15. The minimum air pressure registered 940 hPa. It is forecast to move west by north direction at the speed of 30 km/h and is predicted to make landfall in coastal areas from Zhuhai to Wuchuan, Guangdong, around afternoon to the night of September 16.

From September 16 to 17, central-northern South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, Bashi Channel, Taiwan Island, Qiongzhou Strait, coastal Fujian, coastal Guangdong, Pearl River Estuary, eastern Hainan Island, eastern Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Macao will be exposed to scale 7-10 gale. Heavy rain to rainstorm will batter Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, southeastern Fujian, most portions of Guangxi, Hainan Island, southeastern Taiwan Island. (Sep. 16)

Editor: Liu Shuqiao

NCHMF VIETNAM

TYPHOON WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Sunday, September 16, 2018 22 111.6 TY 133 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Monday, September 17, 2018 23.4 106 td 46 km/hour
19 Tuesday, September 18, 2018 24 100.5 Low 28 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 PM Sunday, September 16, 2018
TC TRACKS

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Sep, 2018 6:00 GMT

 

Typhoon MANGKHUT is currently located near 21.6 N 113.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). MANGKHUT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MANGKHUT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Guiyang (26.6 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1822 MANGKHUT (1822) 970 HPA
AT 22.2N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 23.1N 108.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 23.9N 106.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
PHILIPPINES

WTPH20 RPMM 151200
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 14 FINAL
TYPHOON MANGKHUT (1822)
ANALYSIS 151200UTC
PSTN 19.2N 118.4E
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 80KT
64KT 030NM NE 030NM SE 030NM SW 030NM NW
50KT 100NM NE 080NM SE 080NM SW 100NM NW
30KT 230NM NE 200NM SE 200NM SW 230NM NW
FORECAST 24H 161200UTC
PSTN 21.7N 112.0E
CATE TYPHOON
FORECAST 48H 171200UTC
PSTN 23.2N 106.2E
CATE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
FINAL WARNING
PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND
ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION=
HONG KONG

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 16/Sep/2018
Tropical Cyclone Warning

Severe Typhoon Mangkhut (1822) has weakened into a Typhoon with central pressure 960 hectopascals. At 161200 UTC, it was centred within 60 nautical miles of two two point zero degrees north (22.0 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 16 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 80 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 270 nautical miles over eastern semicircle, 225 nautical miles elsewhere.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 330 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 171200 UTC
Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N)
One zero six point zero degrees east (106.0 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 181200 UTC
Dissipated over land.
CHINA

WWCI50 BABJ 160000
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC SEP.16 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC SEP.16=
FCST VALID 0000UTC SEP.17=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
STY MANGKHUT 1822(1822) 940HPA AT 20.6N 115.6E
MVG WNW 35KMH AND MAX WINDS 50M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
500KM NE
450KM SE
400KM SW
350KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
200KM NE
250KM SE
180KM SW
120KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
60KM NE
80KM SE
80KM SW
60KM NW
AND FCST FOR 170000UTC AT 23.0N 108.9E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NE/E WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SOUTHWESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND TAIWAN STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 26 TO 38M/S GUSTS 40 TO 48M/S SEAS UP
TO 10.0M OVER NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
WINDS FROM 18 TO 22M/S GUSTS 25 TO 30M/S SEAS UP
TO 6.0M OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW/W WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVE ANDAMAN
SEA AND MALACCA STRAIT AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND SEA SOUTH OF
JAWA AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
NE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
TAIWAN STRAIT
SE WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH HVY RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BEIBU GULF
NW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SW
WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG RAINSTORM VIS GOOD TO POOR=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S BACK SW
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
RAINSTORM VIS POOR=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 32 TO 41M/S GUSTS 37 TO 46M/S BACK S
WINDS 25 TO 32M/S GUSTS 29 TO 36M/S SEA STATE
HIGH TO VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS
POOR TO MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 32 TO 41M/S GUSTS 37 TO 46M/S BACK SE
WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE
VERY HIGH TO VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG LIGHT
RAIN VIS POOR TO MOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS BACK S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS BACK S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
W WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO
12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
SE WINDS BACK NE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS
E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO
12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK NE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
NE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S VEER E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA
STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
MALACCA STRAIT
W WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S VEER SW
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
TO ROUGH HVY RAIN VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IN NORTH CAROLINA

⚠️ FLASH #FLOOD EMERGENCY for #Craven, #Carteret, #Pamlico, and #Jones counties. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!
#NorthCarolina #NC #NCwx #Florence #HurricaneFlorence #PDS #NWS #News
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Flash%20Flood%20Warning

Johnston Island/ Hawaii/ Central Pacific/ HURRICANE HECTOR CAT3 10E 09/1500Z 16.6N 160.1W, moving W ~14.03kt 957mb (CPHC) – Updated 09 Aug 2018 1820Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE HECTOR 10E

Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

……MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON

JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK…….CPHC

*A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Johnston Island – CPHC

**FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF HECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY** – NWS HI

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Hector – CPHC

 

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

ep102018_3day_cone_no_line_37

 

 

WTPA31 PHFO 091452
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 09 2018

…MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH
OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON JOHNSTON ISLAND
LATER THIS WEEK…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.6N 160.1W
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 620 MI…1000 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for…
* Johnston Island

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
*A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Johnston Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible
within the next 48 hours.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway
and Kure Atolls and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
west of Pearl/Hermes, should monitor the progress of Hector. This
does not include the main Hawaiian Islands.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 160.1 West. Hector is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through today. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest is expected from tonight through late Friday. Note
that on the forecast path, the center of Hector is expected to pass
to the north of Johnston Island late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast
through Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Hector should begin to impact Johnston
Island tonight. This will likely produce large and dangerous waves
along portions of the island from late tonight through Friday
night.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston

Links:

Hawaii Emergency Management Agency
City and County of Honolulu Department of Emergency Management
Kauai Emergency Management
Maui County Emergency Management
Hawaii County Civil Defense

NWS Forecast Office Honolulu, HI

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

Other

Subtropical Storm Debby Forms; Cat 4 Hector Poised to Graze Hawaii

Dr. Jeff Masters August 7, 2018, 2:34 PM EDT

Dr. Jeff Masters co-founded Weather Underground in 1995, and flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

HURRICANE WARNING

Offshore Waters Forecast for Hawaii
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
528 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240
nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height
of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than
twice the significant wave height.

PHZ180-092215-
Hawaiian Offshore Waters-
528 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…Hurricane conditions expected far SW waters early. Seas
10 to 20 ft. Elsewhere, E to SE winds 10 to 20 kt and seas 7 to 10
ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft, highest SW.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY…E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

WTPA21 PHFO 091449 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102018
1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR…
. JOHNSTON ISLAND

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. JOHNSTON ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS… INCLUDING MIDWAY
AND KURE ATOLLS AND THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
WEST OF PEARL/HERMES…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HECTOR. THIS
DOES NOT INCLUDE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 160.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 150SW 190NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 160.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 159.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 162.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.2N 164.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hong Kong/ China/ South China Sea: Tropical Depression 1816 09/1500Z 18.1°N 111.4°E, next 24hrs will move NNW at speed of 12km/h (~6.47kt) 998hPa (CMA) – Published 09 Aug 2018 1520Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 1816

Guangdong Hainan Island China Beware!

CMA CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

Typhoon Message
20180809 23:12

National Meteorological Center No.2396
Analysis Time: Aug. 09th 15 UTC
Name of TC: TD
Current Location: 18.1°N 111.4°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 15m/s(54km/h)
Central Pressure: 998hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs will moving NNW at speed of 12km/h

HongKong HKO logo

Tropical Depression
at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Position: 18.3 N, 111.9 E (about 500 km south-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 45 km/h
The tropical cyclone over the northern part of the South China Sea will move in the general direction towards the vicinity of the coast of western Guangdong to Hainan Island in the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
20:00 HKT 10 August 2018 20.3 N 111.5 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 11 August 2018 21.3 N 111.4 E Tropical Storm 65 km/h
20:00 HKT 12 August 2018 21.7 N 110.6 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 13 August 2018 22.1 N 108.8 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
20:00 HKT 14 August 2018 21.8 N 106.2 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

In the past few hours, the movement of the tropical depression was rather slow and kept a distance from Hong Kong.

According to the present forecast track, the chance of issuing the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is not high before dawn on Friday. Members of the public should take note of the latest weather situation before departing home in the morning.

The outer rain bands of the tropical depression will affect the coast of Guangdong on Friday and Saturday. Locally, there will be squally showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be occasionally strong over offshore waters and on high ground.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 1 Signal)

1. Every precaution should be taken. Objects likely to be blown away should be secured or taken indoors. Check if all windows and doors can be securely locked.

2. Drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish. People in low-lying areas should take precautions against flooding.

3. Those who have duties during a tropical cyclone should now remain on call.

4. There may be swells, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline.

5. Listen to radio, watch TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory’s website and mobile app for the latest information on the tropical cyclone.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Tropical Cyclone Warning (HKO)

At 091200 UTC, the tropical depression over the northern part of South China Sea with central pressure 998 hectopascals was centred within 90 nautical miles of one eight point one degrees north (18.1 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move north-northwest at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 25 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 60 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 101200 UTC
Two zero point three degrees north (20.3 N)
One one one point five degrees east (111.5 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 111200 UTC
Two one point three degrees north (21.3 N)
One one one point four degrees east (111.4 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 121200 UTC
Two one point seven degrees north (21.7 N)
One one zero point six degrees east (110.6 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 131200 UTC
Two two point one degrees north (22.1 N)
One zero eight point eight degrees east (108.8 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 141200 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

WWHK82 VHHH 091200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) OVER NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA(SCS): NIL.
SYNOPSIS (091200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 091200UTC, TD WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA AND MAXIMUM
WINDS 25 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 18.1N 111.9E AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNW AT ABOUT 6 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 101200UTC: 20.3N, 111.5E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SCS.
SWELL SW 3 M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 210 NM FROM CENTRE OF TD.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE SCS AND SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm SHANSHAN (17W) 09/1200Z 37.9N 142.5E, moving NNE 11kt 985 hPa (JMA) – Updated 09 Aug 2018 1444Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm SHANSHAN (17W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

1813-005

 

JPwarn S9

STS 1813 (Shanshan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 9 August 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 9 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N37°55′ (37.9°)
E142°30′ (142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°35′ (39.6°)
E146°30′ (146.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°00′ (41.0°)
E153°00′ (153.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 17W (Shanshan) Warning #27
Issued at 09/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
091200Z — NEAR 37.8N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 142.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 39.6N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 27 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 41.0N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 38.2N 143.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SHANSHAN is currently located near 37.4 N 141.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). SHANSHAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP22 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 985 HPA
AT 37.9N 142.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 39.6N 146.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 41.0N 153.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 091200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 141E
42N 143E 47N 153E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 41N 180E 35N 165E 40N
150E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 59N 163E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 51N 180E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1000 HPA NEAR 19N 112E NW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 11N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 33N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 46N 166E EAST 15 KT.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 51N 180E TO 52N 178W 53N 175W.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 175W TO 47N 176W 42N 180E 40N 177E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 143E TO 42N 149E 42N 155E 40N 162E 36N
169E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 985 HPA AT 37.9N 142.5E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1814 YAGI (1814) 994 HPA AT 20.9N 133.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Okinawa/ Japan/ China/ South Korea: Tropical Storm YAGI 18W 091200Z 20.9N 133.4E, Almost stationary 994 hPa (JMA) – Published 09 Aug 2018 1345Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm YAGI 18W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET – JTWC

jma-logo3

1814-00

TS 1814 (Yagi)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 9 August 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 9 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°55′ (20.9°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 560 km (300 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°55′ (23.9°)
E132°05′ (132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°05′ (27.1°)
E128°20′ (128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°00′ (31.0°)
E124°25′ (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 20.6N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 133.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 21.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 26.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 34.6N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 39.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 133.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm YAGI is currently located near 20.6 N 133.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). YAGI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP21 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1814 YAGI (1814) 994 HPA
AT 20.9N 133.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 23.9N 132.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.1N 128.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 31.0N 124.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

MEXICO/ East Pacific: HURRICANE JOHN CAT2 08/0900Z 20.0N 111.6W, moving NNW ~10.7kt 972mb (NHC FL) – Published 08 Aug 2018 1400Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE JOHN

John is a category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.

…JOHN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…NHC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

085859_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind


487
WTPZ32 KNHC 080857
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

…JOHN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.0N 111.6W
ABOUT 230 MI…365 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 111.6 West. John is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn back toward
the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later
this morning, with that motion continuing for the next few days.
On the forecast track, John will pass well to the southwest of Baja
California Sur today and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
John is expected to become a tropical storm by late Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated
maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by John will affect portions of the
coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

994
FZPN03 KNHC 080929
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC WED AUG 8 2018

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI AUG 10.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE JOHN NEAR 20.0N 111.6W 972 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 08
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE…60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM NE…240 NM SE…150 NM SW AND 180 NM
NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 34 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 102W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOHN NEAR 22.8N 114.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS…RADIUS OF 20 TO 33 KT WINDS AND
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JOHN NEAR 25.3N 119.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE…40 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N
OF 18N BETWEEN 110W 1ND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL JOHN NEAR 26.8N 122.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JOHN NEAR 27.0N
125.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JOHN NEAR 27.3N
127.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 KT GUSTS 20 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 14.2N 128.5W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
08 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE AND 20
NM SE QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM E AND 30 NM
W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E AND
90 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 15.5N 130.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE…30 NM SE…0 NM SW AND 20 NM NW
QUADRANTS. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 150 OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 17.3N 130.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE…50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SE
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 19.5N 130.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KRISTY NEAR 21.5N 130.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KRISTY NEAR 23.0N
132.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 24N S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N SE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT IN S SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC WED AUG 8…

.HURRICANE JOHN…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240
NM OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM KRISTY…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 75 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES FROM CENTER.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N
OF 11N WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 107W.

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

 

Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Storm ILEANA 11E 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W, moving NW ~19.97kt 1002mb (NHC FL) – Updated 07 Aug 2018 0935Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm ILEANA 11E

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

…ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…NHC

 

National Hurricane Center (FL US)

 

 

035
WTPZ31 KNHC 070553
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

…ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.0N 106.0W
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken further due to the
influence of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the
southwest, and the small cyclone should dissipate later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring within portions
of the warning area. However, tropical storm conditions will
rapidly diminish later this morning.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco…with isolated maximum amounts
of 5 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Aug, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ILEANA is currently located near 18.0 N 104.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). ILEANA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTPZ21 KNHC 070232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT……. 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

….
FORECASTER ROBERTS
FZPN02 KWBC 070557 PZB
HSFEPI
T 30N143W 28N147W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ 09N146W 08N167W 11N173W 10N177W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 159W…AND
180 NM N OF TROUGH W OF 158W.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 179W TO
174E…AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 170W ND 176W…AND FROM 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 165W AND 175W.

$$

.FORECASTER ALMANZA. HONOLULU HI.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

China/ East China Sea: Tropical Storm Jongdari 15W 02/0900Z 30.0N 126.3E, moving NW Slow 990hPa (JMA) – Updated 02 Aug 2018 1015Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Jongdari 15W

SHANGHAI – CHINA BEWARE!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. – JTWC

JMA logo

1812-00

TS 1812 (Jongdari)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 2 August 2018

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 2 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N30°00′ (30.0°)
E126°20′ (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 2 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°50′ (30.8°)
E123°25′ (123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 3 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°40′ (31.7°)
E120°40′ (120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N33°55′ (33.9°)
E116°00′ (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

CMA logo China

Typhoon Message
20180802 17:21

National Meteorological Center No.2305
Analysis Time: Aug. 02th 09 UTC
Name of TC: JONGDARI
Num. of TC: 1812
Current Location: 29.7°N 126.1°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 23m/s(82.8km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 220km SE 150km SW 100km NW 100km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs JONGDARI will moving WNW at speed of 30km/h

 

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 15W (Jongdari) Warning #46 RELOCATED Relocated
Issued at 02/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN35 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING NR 046 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z — NEAR 29.3N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 006 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 126.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 30.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 31.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 32.9N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 126.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON MSI SHOWING EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
CENTER.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression JONGDARI is currently located near 29.7 N 126.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). JONGDARI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

 

Other

DrR J02

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

 

WTJP21 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1812 JONGDARI (1812) 990 HPA
AT 29.3N 126.7E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 30.4N 123.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 31.4N 121.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 33.9N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 020600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC AUG.02 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC AUG.02=
FCST VALID 0600UTC AUG.03=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS JONGDARI 1812(1812) 985HPA AT 29.2N 126.6E
MVG WNW 30KMH AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
220KM NE
150KM SE
100KM SW
100KM NW
AND FCST FOR 030600UTC AT 31.2N 120.8E 992HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUSTS 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER CENTRAL PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND
SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND LAUT SULAWESI=
FCST=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
CYCLONIC WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH HVY RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
VIS MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS VEER W 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO ROUGH LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS
MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
W WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
BECMG CLOUDY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kuril Islands/ Japan/ Russia/ North Pacific: Tropical Storm Wukong 14W 26/0900Z position nr 40.4N 153.5E, moving NNW 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Jul 2018 0950Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Wukong 14W

Kuril Islands (Russia/Japan) Beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 25 FEET.- JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Storm 14W (Wukong) Warning #19
Issued at 26/0900Z

wp1418

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN34 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 39.7N 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.7N 153.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 42.5N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 45.4N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 40.4N 153.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z AND
270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI) WARNINGS
(WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1811-001

 

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TS 1811 (Wukong)
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 26 July 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 26 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N39°25′ (39.4°)
E154°00′ (154.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 560 km (300 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N42°00′ (42.0°)
E152°05′ (152.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 27 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°50′ (44.8°)
E152°25′ (152.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WWJP27 RJTD 260600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 47N 152E 57N 163E 60N 163E 60N 180E 37N 180E 40N 161E 37N
150E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 47N 137E ENE 10 KT.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 31N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 42N 174E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1812 JONGDARI (1812) 980 HPA AT 22.6N 139.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1811 WUKONG (1811) 996 HPA AT 39.4N 154.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Tropical Storm Ampil 12W 23/1300Z 36.6°N 117.6°E, moving N at speed of 20km/h 990hPa Inland (CMA) – Updated 23 Jul 2018 1410Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm AMPIL 12W

China beware!

CHINA

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723200000024

Typhoon Message
20180723 21:10

National Meteorological Center No.2175
Analysis Time: Jul. 23th 13 UTC
Name of TC: AMPIL
Num. of TC: 1810
Current Location: 36.6°N 117.6°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 18m/s(64.8km/h)
Central Pressure: 990hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs AMPIL will moving N at speed of 20km/h
Currently on land

 

1810-00

 

TS 1810 (Ampil)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 23 July 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°30′ (36.5°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 220 km (120 NM)
W 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N38°40′ (38.7°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N41°30′ (41.5°)
E119°50′ (119.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 12W (Ampil) Warning #23
Issued at 23/0900Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 024
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 36.5N 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 36.5N 118.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 38.8N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 41.4N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 37.1N 118.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
407 NM WEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W
(SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
(FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AMPIL is currently located near 35.0 N 118.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). AMPIL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Linyi (35.2 N, 118.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Xinpu (34.8 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 994 HPA
AT 36.5N 117.9E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 38.7N 117.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 41.5N 119.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 230600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.23 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.23=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.24=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS AMPIL 1810(1810) 990HPA AT 35.2N 118.6E
MVG NNW 20KMH AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 5.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 40.2N 118.4E 990HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
TD(09) 990HPA AT 20.8N 110.1E MVG NNW 8KMH
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 22.6N 109.1E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 12M/S NEAR CENTER=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 23 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO
4.5M OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVERBOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS
UP TO 2.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18 TO 23M/S
SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT
AND
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
SEA AND AND BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA
STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH TO SLT
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT OVERCAST
BECMG CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BEIBU GULF
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BACK SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT
HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT TO SMOOTH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS BACK E 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ East China Sea: Tropical Depression Thirteen 13W 230900Z position nr 29.0N 123.4E, moving N 22 kt (JTWC) – Published 23 Jul 2018 1255Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen 13W

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 13W (Thirteen) Warning #11
Issued at 23/0900Z

wp1318

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 011
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
230600Z — NEAR 28.2N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 123.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 31.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 34.5N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 38.1N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 123.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
220 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723080000023

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 992 HPA
AT 35.3N 118.7E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 37.4N 117.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 39.7N 118.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 230600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.23 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.23=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.24=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS AMPIL 1810(1810) 990HPA AT 35.2N 118.6E
MVG NNW 20KMH AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 5.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 40.2N 118.4E 990HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
TD(09) 990HPA AT 20.8N 110.1E MVG NNW 8KMH
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 22.6N 109.1E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 12M/S NEAR CENTER=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 23 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO
4.5M OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVERBOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS
UP TO 2.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18 TO 23M/S
SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT
AND
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
SEA AND AND BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA
STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH TO SLT
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT OVERCAST
BECMG CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BEIBU GULF
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BACK SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT
HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT TO SMOOTH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS BACK E 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Tropical Storm SONTINH 11W 230900Z position nr 20.7N 110.1E, moving NNE 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 23 Jul 2018 1125Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm SONTINH 11W

CHINA BEWARE!

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 11W (Son-tinh) Warning #22
Issued at 23/0900Z

wp11183

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 022
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
230600Z — NEAR 20.5N 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 110.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 21.4N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 22.4N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 23.0N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 110.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z
AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

(JMA is the lead agency in this area)

NO DATA AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME

 

CHINA

CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723170000024

HONG KONG (HKO)

Tropical Depression
at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Position: 21.1 N, 110.1 E (about 440 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 55 km/h
The tropical cyclone near Leizhou Peninsula will move in the general direction of Guangxi today and tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 19:00 HKT 23 July 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
17:00 HKT 24 July 2018 22.7 N 109.1 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
05:00 HKT 25 July 2018 23.3 N 107.2 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SON-TINH is currently located near 20.5 N 110.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). SON-TINH is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 992 HPA
AT 35.3N 118.7E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 37.4N 117.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 39.7N 118.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

 

Bulletin issued at 18:31 HKT 23/Jul/2018

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 230900 UTC, the tropical depression near Leizhou Peninsula with central pressure 992 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of two one point zero degrees north (21.0 N) one one zero point one degrees east (110.1 E) and is forecast to move north slowly for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 150 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 240900 UTC
Two two point seven degrees north (22.7 N)
One zero nine point one degrees east (109.1 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 242100 UTC
Dissipated over land.


Bulletin issued at 12:30 HKT 23/Jul/2018

Tropical Cyclone Warning

The tropical depression near Taiwan has weakened into an area of low pressure with central pressure 1002 hectopascals. At 230300 UTC, it was centred within 90 nautical miles of two six point six degrees north (26.6 N) one two three point three degrees east (123.3 E).

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 20 knots.

No further warnings on this area of low pressure will be issued by the Hong Kong Observatory unless regeneration takes place.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/Canada/ Atlantic Ocean: Subtropical Storm BERYL 15/0900Z 38.3N 65.2W, moving NE ~2.6kt (NHC FL) – Published 15 Jul 2018 1010Z (GMT/UTC)

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL

…BERYL CRAWLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
GULFSTREAM…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT…NHC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

083625_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind


660
WTNT32 KNHC 150834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

…BERYL CRAWLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
GULFSTREAM…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.3N 65.2W
ABOUT 415 MI…670 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 65.2 West. The storm
has slowed down considerably and is now moving toward the northeast
near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual increase in forward speed toward the
northeast or north-northeast is expected through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today. Beryl should begin to
weaken by this evening when it moves over colder water, and the
cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system
late tonight or early Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

CANADA

track4

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

 

4:05 PM ADT Saturday 14 July 2018
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia

For Sub-tropical Storm Beryl.

The remnants of Beryl have reorganized into a subtropical storm approximately 500 km north of Bermuda this afternoon. The storm is moving northeastward 20 km/h. By Sunday afternoon Beryl should have moved over cooler ocean waters and is expected to diminish in intensity. By early Monday morning Beryl will be a post tropical storm and the remnant low will continue a northeast track towards the Avalon. By early Tuesday morning the Avalon should see some showers from this system. Regular bulletins will begin tomorrow afternoon on this storm if the current forecast remains valid.
At this time no significant tropical impacts are expected in the Maritimes or Newfoundland.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 150833
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018
0900 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 65.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 65.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.1N 64.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.5N 62.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.6N 59.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

CANADA

CanadaMapWarningStatus_e B

Go here:
https://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ryukyu Islands (esp Miyako and Yaeyama Islands)/ Okinawa/ Amami Islands/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon MARIA 10W 10/1500Z position nr 25.5N 123.2E, moving WNW 15kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jul 2018 1440Z (GMT/UTC)


Typhoon MARIA 10W

MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Ryukyu Islands (esp Miyako and Yaeyama Islands)/ Okinawa/ Amami Islands/ Taiwan/ China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET- JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 10W (Maria) Warning #32
Issued at 10/1500Z

wp1018310w_101200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 25.2N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 124.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 26.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 27.5N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 29.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 30.4N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 123.2E.
TYPHOON 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM EAST OF TAIPEI,
TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

 

 

(JMA is the lead agency in this area)

1808-003

 

>>>> http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 13:45 UTC, 10 July 2018

<Analysis at 13 UTC, 10 July>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°25′ (25.4°)
E123°50′ (123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 240 km (130 NM)
W 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 14 UTC, 10 July>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°30′ (25.5°)
E123°30′ (123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 240 km (130 NM)
W 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E120°30′ (120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area E 300 km (160 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°10′ (27.2°)
E116°55′ (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′ (30.8°)
E113°00′ (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

CHINA

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180710200000017

Typhoon Message
20180710 22:03

National Meteorological Center No.1975
Analysis Time: Jul. 10th 14 UTC
Name of TC: MARIA
Num. of TC: 1808
Current Location: 25.5°N 123.6°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 50m/s(180km/h)
Central Pressure: 940hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 550km SE 450km SW 270km NW 350km
Radius of 50knots Winds: NE 200km SE 150km SW 100km NW 150km
Radius of 64knots Winds: NE 60km SE 60km SW 40km NW 60km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs MARIA will moving WNW at speed of 30km/h

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Typhoon MARIA is currently located near 24.6 N 125.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Nanchang (28.7 N, 115.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Wuhan (30.6 N, 114.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

 

Other

DrR m10

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

Location of Ryukyu Islands( 📷 Uchinanchu/wikimedia)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1808 MARIA (1808) 940 HPA
AT 25.2N 124.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 26.3N 120.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.2N 116.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.8N 113.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWHK82 VHHH 101200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
SEVERE TYPHOON (ST) MARIA (1808):
R OF HURRICANES:60NM.
R OF STORMS:120NM.
R OF GALES:210NM.
SYNOPSIS (101200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SUPER TYPHOON MARIA (1808) HAS WEAKENED INTO A ST. AT
101200UTC, MARIA WITH CENTRAL P 955HPA AND MAX WINDS 90KT
WAS CENTERED WITHIN 30NM OF 25.2N 124.0E AND IS FC TO MOVE
WNW AT ABOUT 16KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FC POS AT 111200UTC: 27.3N, 116.7E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M,10M,14M OVER GALES,STORMS,HURRICANES.
SWELL E TO NE 5-7M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND LUZON STRAIT.
SWELL SE 5-7M OVER EAST CHINA SEA.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FRQ HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 240 NM FROM CENTRE OF MARIA
(1808).
SCT SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES, SEAS NEAR
MALAYSIA.
ISOL SQ SH AND TS OVER N PART OF SCS, GULF OF THAILAND AND
GULF OF TONKIN.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

 

WWCI50 BABJ 100600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.10 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.10=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.11=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
SUPERTY MARIA 1808(1808) 935HPA AT 24.7N 125.6E
MVG WNW 30KMH AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
550KM NE
450KM SE
270KM SW
350KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
200KM NE
150KM SE
100KM SW
150KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NE
50KM SE
40KM SW
70KM NW
AND FCST FOR 110600UTC AT 26.7N 118.6E 982HPA
AND MAX WINDS 28M/S NEAR CENTER=SUMMARY=
SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 22 TO 32M/S SEAS UP TO 6.0M
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M
OVER SEA NEAR CENTRAL OF MARIA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER YELLOW
SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
JAPAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND
MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
RAINSTORM BECMG DOWNPOUR VIS MOD TO POOR=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SLT MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
E WINDS VEER SE 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
CYCLONIC WINDS 29 TO 36M/S GUSTS 32 TO 41M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH DOWNPOUR VIS POOR=
TAIWAN STRAIT
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SW
WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE MOD
HVY RAIN BECMG DOWNPOUR VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
CYCLONIC WINDS 25 TO 32M/S GUSTS 29 TO 36M/S BECMG
S WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH DOWNPOUR VIS POOR TO MOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SLT TO SMOOTH
MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD HVY RAIN
VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
CYCLONIC WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S BECMG
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD DOWNPOUR BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD
MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD DOWNPOUR
BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
MALACCA STRAIT
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH MOD RAIN
VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
W WINDS BACK SW 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD HVY RAIN BECMG RAINSTORM VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Leaving no stone unturned in hurricane preparedness — Official blog of the Met Office news team – Reblogged.

With hurricanes developing in the Atlantic Basin, Gavin Iley, Met Office Head of International Crisis Management & Resilience, provides a personal account of how the Met Office works tirelessly to ensure its hurricane advice is ‘useful, useable and used’. Earlier this year I met a colleague from the meteorological service on one of the islands […]

via Leaving no stone unturned in hurricane preparedness — Official blog of the Met Office news team

Thailand: Cave Rescue – All 12 boys and their football coach have now been rescued, according to Royal Thai Navy Seals. – Updated 10 Jul 2018 1307Z (GMT/UTC)

a0ec670b-0970-407f-aee0-58313508dd6a

(Image: BBC News)

102241977_3e345cc6-b99f-4552-81af-b8638d99a3f1

The ‘Wild Boats Team & Coach pictured at a time before entering the cave (Image: BBC News)

“Divers in northern Thailand have rescued all 13 people who were trapped in a flooded cave system, 17 days after they got trapped underground.

The plight of the 12 boys and their football coach, and the work to free them, gripped the world’s attention.

Four boys and the coach were brought out on Tuesday evening to complete the rescue mission, Thai navy divers said.

The group, a football team, got stuck deep inside the cave on 23 June after heavy rains caused flooding.

Aged between about 11 and 17, they became trapped during an excursion with their coach.

After they were found by divers last week, huddled in darkness on a ledge and cut off from the outside world for nine days, the race began to get them out before the weather deteriorated even further.

The first eight boys to be rescued, on Sunday and Monday, are still in hospital but said to be in good mental and physical health.

They have undergone X-rays and blood tests, and will remain under observation in hospital for at least seven days.

How were they rescued?

A team of 90 expert divers – 40 from Thailand and 50 from overseas – worked in the caves.

They guided the boys and their coach through darkness and submerged passageways towards the mouth of the Tham Luang cave system.

Getting to and from the trapped group was an exhausting round trip, even for experienced divers.

The process included a mixture of walking, wading, climbing and diving along guide ropes.

Wearing full-face masks, which are easier for novice divers than traditional respirators, each boy was accompanied by two divers, who also carried his air supply.

The toughest part was about halfway out at a section named “T-Junction”, which was so tight that the divers had to take off their air tanks to get through.

Beyond that a cavern – called Chamber 3 – was turned into a forward base for the divers.

There the boys could rest before making the last, easier walk out to the entrance. They were then taken to hospital in Chiang Rai.

In an indication of how dangerous the journey was, a former Thai navy diver died in the caves on Friday. Saman Gunan was returning from a mission to provide the group with air tanks when he ran out of oxygen.”


….

Remembering diver Saman Gunan

Petty Officer Saman Gunan, a former Thai navy diver in his late thirties, died on 6 July while helping to re-supply the cave with new air tanks.

He ran out oxygen and lost consciousness.

BBC Thai spoke to his family after his death.

“I really loved him,” his wife Waleeporn Gunan said. “Every day before he left for work, we said we loved each other. At midday, we’d text to see if the other had had lunch.

“I want to tell you honey, you are the hero in my heart, you always were and always will be.” – BBC News

Summary

  1. All 12 members of a Thai youth football team and their coach have been brought safely out of the cave in northern Thailand
  2. The final five members rescued join eight team members taken to hospital on Sunday and Monday and said to be doing well
  3. Each person was pulled through the cave by expert divers
  4. The 12 boys and their coach were trapped by floods more than two weeks ago
  5. One former Navy diver, Petty Officer Saman Gunan, died last week carrying oxygen in the cave ahead of the rescue
  6. The last Navy Seals – three divers and a doctor – are out of the cave, the rescue chief says

Full story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44782132

Live reporting: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/44755093

 

Japan/ South Korea/ Russia: Severe Tropical Storm PRAPIROON 03/1600Z 35.3N 130.4E, moving NE 14kt 975 hPa (JMA) – Updated 03 Jul 2018 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon


Japan and South Korea beware!

Russia be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 25 FEET – JTWC

JMA logo

1807-00

JP WARN P 3

STS 1807 (Prapiroon)
Issued at 16:50 UTC, 3 July 2018

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 3 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E130°25′ (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Estimate for 17 UTC, 3 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N35°30′ (35.5°)
E130°35′ (130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N38°00′ (38.0°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N40°35′ (40.6°)
E137°00′ (137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 986 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

 

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Storm 09W (Prapiroon) Warning #21
Issued at 03/1500Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 34.6N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 129.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 37.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 40.1N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 41.6N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 43.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 35.3N 130.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z,
040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jul, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PRAPIROON is currently located near 34.6 N 129.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). PRAPIROON is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

 

Other

 

 

 

DrR P2

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP31 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1807 PRAPIROON (1807) 975 HPA
AT 35.0N 130.2E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 38.0N 133.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 40.6N 137.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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