Socotra Islands/ Yemen/ Oman/ Somalia/ Saudi Arabia: Tropical Cyclone/ VSCS MEKUNU 02A 240300Z near 13.3N 55.5E, moving NNW 05kt (JTWC) – Updated 24 May 2018 0636Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone/ VSCS MEKUNU (02A)

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…….VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. …VERY LIKELY TO….CROSS SOUTH OMAN SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF 160-170 KMPH GUSTING TO 190 KMPH BETWEEN
53 DEG E AND 55 DEG E CLOSE TO SALALAH, AROUND 26TH MAY, 2018
MORNING…. IMD

Socotra Islands, Yemen, Oman & Arabian Sea beware!

Somalia & Saudi Arabia be aware.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE  HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu) Warning #09
Issued at 24/0300Z

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02a_240000sair

 

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTIO31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240000Z — NEAR 13.1N 55.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 55.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 14.0N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 15.0N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 16.0N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 16.9N 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 18.2N 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 19.1N 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 55.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A TIGHT CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 232252Z SSMI MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 02A IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER TAU
48, TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE STEADILY AND TURN GRADUALLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

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REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN No. 13
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (VSCS) ‘MEKUNU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA – ADVISORY NO. THIRTEEN ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 24TH MAY,
2018 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 24TH MAY, 2018.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MEKUNU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL AND
ADJOONING SOUTHWESTARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 10 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY
CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF 24TH MAY 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 13.00N AND LONGITUDE 55.60E, ABOUT
190 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS AND 475 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SALALAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 24
HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH OMAN – SOUTHEAST
YEMEN COASTS AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF 155-165
KMPH GUSTING TO 180 KMPH BETWEEN 530E AND 550E CLOSE TO SALALAH, AROUND
0000UTC OF 26TH MAY, 2018.
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic disturbance
24/0000 13.0/55.6 130-140 GUSTING TO 155 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
24/0600 13.5/55.5 135-145 GUSTING TO 160 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
24/1200 14.0/55.4 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
24/1800 14.5/55.3 150-160 GUSTING TO 180 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
25/0000 15.0/55.2 155-165 GUSTING TO 185 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
25/1200 16.0/54.6 155-165 GUSTING TO 185 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/0000 16.9/53.9 155-165 GUSTING TO 185 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/1200 17.7/53.2 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
27/0000 18.5/52.5 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
27/1200 19.1/51.7 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP DEPRESSION
28/0000 19.5/50.9 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 24TH MAY 2018, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T4.0. THE CONVECTION SHOWS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
PATTERN WITH WELL DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATTITUDE 8.0 DEG. N & 16 DEG. N AND
LONGITUDE 51.5 DEG. E TO 58.0 DEG. E. MINIMUM CTT MINUS 93 DEG. C.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 976 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA IS PHENOMENAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
REMARKS:
MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS ALSO
A CONSENUS AMONG THE MODELS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTH OMAN AND SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO)
INDEX NOW LIES OVER PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PHASE 2 DURING NEXT 4 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. HENCE THE MJO IS
FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 29-31 DEG. C OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
THERE IS POSITIVE SST ANOMALY OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 80-100 KJ/SQ. CM OVER CORE REGION. HOWEVER, IT IS
RELATIVELY LOW ALONG THE PREDICTED TRACK. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS
ABOUT 300X10-6 PER SEC. TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 50 X10-5 PER SEC. TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 X10-5 PER SEC. TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH
(15-25 KNOTS) NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY
INDICATES CONTINOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR INCURSION INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INCURSION SHOWS DECREASING TREND. HENCE THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MAY NOT BE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DUE TO EXPECTED RELATIVELY LOWER TROPICAL CYCLONE
HEAT POTENTIAL ALONG THE PREDICTED TRACK AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GRADUAL DECREASE IN RATE OF WARM MOIST AIR INCURSION. THE STEERING WIND
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS FOR NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THEN IT WILL BE STEERED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH OMAN –
SOUTH EAST YEMEN COAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT
MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSHPERIC LEVEL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER.
(V.R. Durai)
Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com

3dasiasec_ir1

OMAN

paca 2 engpaca 2 arabic

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http://www.met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/home/

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 24 May, 2018 6:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU is currently located near 13.7 N 55.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). MEKUNU is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MEKUNU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Oman
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Salalah (17.0 N, 54.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Yemen
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Qalansiyah (12.7 N, 53.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Damqawt (16.6 N, 52.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Saudi Arabia
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ghanah (18.7 N, 56.7 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

 

Other

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(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 240600

WTIN01 DEMS 240600

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0530 UTC 24 MAY 2018.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM \U2018MEKUNU\U2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 11 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT
0830 HRS IST (0300 GMT/UTC) OF 24 TH MAY 2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 55.4
DEG E, ABOUT 180 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS AND 440 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY
NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
CROSS SOUTH OMAN SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF 160-170 KMPH GUSTING TO 190 KMPH BETWEEN
53 DEG E AND 55 DEG E CLOSE TO SALALAH, AROUND 26TH MAY, 2018
MORNING (.)

PART:-II
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF TAMILNADU
COAST BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3.1KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 40/50 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E
OF 64 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 66 DEG E 7-8 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 1.5-3 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: SE/SW-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC S/SW-LY 20/40 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: SE/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE
E OF 64 DEG E AND BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E: 2.5-5 MTR (.)
2)N OF 3 DEG N TO E OF 74 DEG E 2-3 MTR (.)
3)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E
CYCLONIC 75/80 KTS (.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY
10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 64 DEG E TO S OF 18 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E TO S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 64 DEG E TO S OF 18 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 63 DEG E TO S OF 13 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E: 9-14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 1-3 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E
CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E TO S OF 20 DEG N: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY
10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 66 DEG E (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 62 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 62 DEG E TO S OF 16 DEG N 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E 9-14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2-3 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 4 DEG N: SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 86 DEG E (.)
2)N OF 4 DEG N : SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 92 DEG E 2-3 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-2 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 4 DEG N: SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 88 DEG E (.)
2)N OF 4 DEG N E: SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE E OF 93 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 94 DEG E: 1.5-3 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 0.5-1.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S/SW-LY 05/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
05/15 KTS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA S/SW-LY 05/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 19 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 19 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 14 DEG N: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-1.5 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 17 DEG N TO W OF 83 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 15 DEG N : 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 0.5-1.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
++++=

 

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Fiji/ Tonga: Tropical Cyclone KENI 19P, 13F 101500Z position near 22.1S 177.6W, moving SE 25kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Apr 2018 1520z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone KENI (19P, 13F)

Mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa currently (Fiji Intensity Category 3) = approx equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Keni) Warning #08
Issued at 10/1500Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 21.1S 178.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.7W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 25.2S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 34 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 31.1S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 37 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 38.2S 167.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 177.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 19P NO LONGER HAS AN EYE FEATURE AND THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
101011Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON A WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS TC 19P
RAPIDLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 19P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa expected by 6 pm April 9 UTC

(Fiji Intensity Category 2)

RSMC Nadi, Fiji LOGO

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone KENI

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 32 issued 1300 UTC Tuesday 10 April 2018

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone KENI

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm April 10 3 20.9S 179.0W 85
+6hr 6 pm April 10 3 22.4S 177.1W 110
+12hr 12 am April 11 2 24.8S 175.0W 140
+18hr 6 am April 11 2 27.2S 173.0W 165
+24hr 12 pm April 11 2 30.8S 171.2W 195
+36hr 12 am April 12 1 38.3S 167.9W 255
+48hr 12 pm April 12 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 12 am April 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 pm April 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 100852 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6S
179.1E AT 100600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND
HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 21 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM
STEERED TO SOUTHEAST BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE WITH LG SURROUND GIVING DT OF
4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 21.3S 178.8W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 23.4S 176.7W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.6S 174.8W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 30.4S 173.5W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 101400 UTC.

FIJI

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:00pm on Tuesday the 10th of April 2018

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MATUKU, TOTOYA AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU
GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVIT GROUP AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PARTS OF FIJI. For more information, refer
to the latest Special Weather Bulletin on Flood issued by RSMC, Nadi at
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20016.txt

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3
SOUTH 179.6 EAST OR ABOUT 100 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU AND ABOUT
270KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADAVU AT 9:00 pm. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 130 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185
KM/HR. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 45 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 KILOMETRES
SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 11:00 am TOMORROW AND ABOUT 1200 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST
OF ONO-I-LAU AT 11:00 pm TOMORROW.

FOR ONO-I-LAU:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 130KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH STORM SURGE OF MORE THAN 2 METERS COULD BE EXPECTED
OVER COASTAL AREAS.

FOR MATUKU, TOTOYA AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU GROUP:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 80KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
110KM/HR.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASING FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN GRADUALLY EASING
FROM TOMORROW. FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA .FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 50 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
80KM/HR. WINDS EASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH FROM TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY
AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVIT GROUP . RAIN EASING FROMTOMORROW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES OVER ELSEWHERE.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS LIKELY.

 

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WITH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 2:00 AM TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLIER.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Apr, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone KENI is currently located near 21.1 S 178.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KENI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KENI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nuku’ alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

Other

sp201819_5day1

(Above image: @wunderground)

doc k10

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / HURRICANE_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 1200 

WHPS01 NFFN 101200
HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 101254 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9 SOUTH 179.0
WEST AT 101200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.9S 179.0W AT 101200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.8S 175.0W AT 110000 UTC
AND NEAR 30.8S 171.2W AT 111200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 031.

STORM WARNING 027 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 091322 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3
SOUTH 173.6 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.3S 173.6E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
65 KNOTS BY 110000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.8S 175.8E AT 100000 UTC
AND NEAR 20.1S 179.6E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

FIJI

Extracted from Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENIISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:00pm on Tuesday the 10th of April  2018

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WITH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Yap/ Palau/ Micronesia/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm JELAWAT (1803, 03W) 260900Z 8.2N 136.4E, moving WNW 10 kt 998hPa (JMA) – Updated 26 Mar 2018 1057z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JELAWAT (1803, 03W)

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Kayangel in the
Republic of Palau.

logo

1803-001

TS 1803 (Jelawat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 26 March 2018

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 26 March>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N8°10′ (8.2°)
E136°25′ (136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 170 km (90 NM)
S 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 26 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°25′ (9.4°)
E135°10′ (135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 27 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°40′ (10.7°)
E134°10′ (134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 28 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°00′ (14.0°)
E134°05′ (134.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 29 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°50′ (16.8°)
E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 03W (Jelawat) Warning #07
Issued at 26/0900Z

 

 

wp0318

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 8.0N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N 136.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 9.5N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 10.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 12.0N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 13.8N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 16.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 19.1N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 21.2N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 8.4N 136.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 260923
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (03W) Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP032018
800 PM ChST Mon Mar 26 2018

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT WEST OF NGULU MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST…

Changes with this advisory
————————–
None.

Watches and warnings
——————–
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Kayangel in the
Republic of Palau.

Summary of 700 PM CHST…0900 UTC…Information
———————————————–
Location…8.4N 136.1E

About 95 miles west of Ngulu
About 100 miles east-northeast of Kayangel
About 140 miles east-northeast of Koror
About 155 miles west-southwest of Yap
About 680 miles west-southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds…35 mph
Present movement…west-northwest…295 degrees at 14 mph

Discussion and outlook
———————-
At 700 PM CHST…0900 UTC…the center of Tropical Depression
Jelawat was located near Latitude 8.4 North and Longitude 136.1 East.
Jelawat is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. It is expected to turn to
the northwest overnight and then north on Tuesday while slowing down
in forward speed slightly.

Tropical Depression Jelawat remains somewhat disorganized, thus
maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Jelawat is still expected
to intensify gradually the next couple of days, possibly becoming a
tropical storm tonight or Tuesday.

Next advisory
————-
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather Service
at 1100 PM followed by the next scheduled advisory at 200 AM Tuesday
morning.

$$

Nierenberg

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2018 0:00 GMT

Tropical Depression JELAWAT is currently located near 7.5 N 137.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). JELAWAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Koror (7.3 N, 134.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Other

 

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 260600

WTJP21 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1803 JELAWAT (1803) 998 HPA
AT 08.0N 136.7E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 09.3N 135.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 10.6N 134.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 14.0N 134.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 16.8N 134.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Severe Tropical Cyclone NORA 24/1200Z near 14.4S 141.5E, moving SSE 11kt (TCWC Darwin) – Updated 24 Mar 2018 1400z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone NORA (16P)

Australian Intensity Category 3

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

The destructive core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is beginning to impact the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

Warning zone: Karumba to Weipa

Watch zone: NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora

Issued at 8:33 pm AEST Saturday 24 March 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 23.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

The destructive core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is beginning to impact the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Karumba to Weipa.

Watch zone: NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora at 7:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South, 141.2 degrees East , 25 kilometres west of Cape Keerweer and 185 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama .
Movement: southeast at 21 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora has started weaken as it nears land on the western side of the Cape York Peninsula, although it remains a Category 3 system. The eye wall of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is currently impacting the coast near Cape Keerweer. the system has begun to track more towards the south southeast in the last few hours, moving more parallel to the coast. A coastal crossing between Cape Keerweer and Gilbert River Mouth is predicted overnight tonight or during Sunday.

From later Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone is expected to become slow moving over land around the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria.

There is a slight risk that the cyclone takes a more southerly track than depicted and tracks parallel to the coast, remaining over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria into early next week. In this scenario, the cyclone is still expected to weaken, although more slowly than if it crosses the Cape York Peninsula coast this weekend.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Weipa and Kowanyama this evening. Gales may extend south between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth, including adjacent inland parts later tonight, and between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba during Sunday morning. Gales may extend further south to between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island later on Sunday or Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Weipa and Kowanyama this evening. Destructive winds may extend south between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth later Saturday night or early Sunday. Destructive winds may also extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba during Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 190 kilometres per hour may develop between Aurukun and Kowanyama, this evening or overnight, as the core of the cyclone nears the coast. If the cyclone tracks more southerly and remains over water on Sunday, maintaining its intensity, very destructive winds may extend south between Kowanyama and Karumba during Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula and extending to the Gulf Country of Queensland during Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

Coastal residents between Weipa and Gilbert River Mouth are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Recommended Action:

People between Weipa and the Gilbert River Mouth should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be secured using available daylight hours.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between the Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 7 pm March 24 3 13.9S 141.2E 20
+6hr 1 am March 25 3 14.7S 141.6E 40
+12hr 7 am March 25 2 15.4S 141.7E 65
+18hr 1 pm March 25 2 15.9S 141.8E 85
+24hr 7 pm March 25 2 16.3S 141.8E 110
+36hr 7 am March 26 1 16.7S 142.0E 145
+48hr 7 pm March 26 tropical low 16.6S 142.4E 180
+60hr 7 am March 27 tropical low 16.6S 142.4E 220
+72hr 7 pm March 27 tropical low 16.8S 141.8E 255

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:30 pm AEST Saturday

 

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Weipa and the Gilbert River Mouth are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 11:25 pm AEST [10:55 pm ACST] on Saturday 24 March 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is currently crossing the western coast of Cape York Peninsula north of Pormpuraaw.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Karumba to Aurukun.

Watch Zone
NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island.

Cancelled Zone
Aurukun to Weipa.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora at 10:00 pm AEST [9:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 14.4 degrees South 141.5 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres north northwest of Pormpuraaw and 125 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama.

Movement: south southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora, Category 3, is tracking south southeastwards, slowly crossing the coast north of Pormpuraaw. As the system is moving somewhat parallel to the coast, the period of crossing will be extended, and the cyclone is only expected to weaken slowly and may still be a Category 2 or Category 3 system as it approaches Kowanyama on sunday morning.

 

From later Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone is expected to continue gradually weakening as it becomes slow moving over land near the southwestern base of Cape York Peninsula.

 

The system may move back over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria late Monday or on Tuesday, where it may reintensify briefly to a Category 1 cyclone.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Aurukun and Gilbert River Mouth , including adjacent inland parts, tonight. Gales may extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba, including adjacent inland parts, during Sunday. Gales may extend further south to between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, on Monday, depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Aurukun and Gilbert River Mouth tonight or during Sunday morning. Destructive winds may also extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba later on Sunday, depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens.

 

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 190 kilometres per hour may develop between Cape Keerweer and Kowanyama tonight, as the core of the cyclone moves along the coast.

 

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula and extending to the Gulf Country of Queensland during Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

 

Coastal residents between Weipa and Gilbert River Mouth are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Recommended Action:
People between Aurukun and the Gilbert River Mouth should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be secured using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

 

 

People between the Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

 

 

People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:30 am AEST Sunday 25 March [2:00 am ACST Sunday 25 March].

This advice is available on telephone QLD-1300 659 212 and NT-1300 659 211

 

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Nora) Warning #09
Issued at 24/0900Z

sh16181

16p_240600sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240600Z — NEAR 13.3S 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 140.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 14.9S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z — 16.0S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 16.4S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 16.8S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 17.2S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 17.7S 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 141.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM NORTHWEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP AND
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 12-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 240521Z
GPM 37GHZ PASS WHICH IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE IN THE MSI WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY TILTED SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF 16P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-KNOT
NORTHERLY VWS BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE GULF ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. TC NORA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD
AFTER TAU 12 ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA AS THE NER
BUILDS. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
WILL BUILD AND COMPETE FOR STEERING, CAUSING TC 16P TO BECOME QS UP
TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE NER WILL RECEDE AND THE STR WILL DOMINATE
AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
TERRITORY. THE INITIAL LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 16P,
THEN AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CAUSE A MORE RAPID
DECAY. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND BY TAU
96 WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE
IN UNISON WITH THE TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, HOWEVER, EGRR AND AFUM OFFER
A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE CORAL SEA AFTER
TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE EGRR/AFUM SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
A QS MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z, AND 251500.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone NORA is currently located near 13.3 S 140.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). NORA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NORA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Edward River (15.0 S, 141.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Weipa (12.6 S, 142.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Coen (13.9 S, 143.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Bamaga (10.9 S, 142.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Normanton (17.8 S, 141.0 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

Other

sp201816_5day3

(Above image: @wunderground)

doc nora 24

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

0:2:2:24:14S142E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1329UTC 24 MARCH 2018

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora was centred within 10 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal four south (14.4S)
longitude one hundred and forty one decimal five east (141.5E)
Recent movement : south southeast at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 65 knots
Central pressure: 976 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre easing to 50 knots by 1200 UTC 25
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough to high seas and
moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 25 March: Within 35 nautical miles of 15.8 south 141.8 east
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 25 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.5 south 142.0 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 24 March 2018.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

METAREA X (link)

================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA): Severe Tropical Cyclone MARCUS (15S) 221500Z position nr 18.1S 106.2E, moving SSW 09kt (JTWC) – Updated 22 Mar 2018 1435z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone MARCUS

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken well away from the WA mainland. It should continue to weaken as it moves further south – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Marcus) Warning #28
Issued at 22/1500Z

sh15184

15s_220600sair

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
221200Z — NEAR 17.6S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 106.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 19.8S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 22.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 24.9S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 26.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 30.4S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18 NM EYE WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 221139Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC 15S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DECENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS
(28C). TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS TC 15S WEAKENS DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus

Issued at 8:58 pm AWST Thursday 22 March 2018. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken well away from the WA mainland. It should continue to weaken as it moves further south.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 215 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 295 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 17.6 degrees South, 106.2 degrees East , 960 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and 1120 kilometres northwest of Carnarvon .
Movement: south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has begun to weaken as it continues to move towards the south southwest, well away from the WA mainland. During Friday Marcus will move more southward as it continues weakening. Marcus is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday, well off the west coast of WA.

Hazards:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus is well away from the WA mainland and is not expected to directly affect WA communities.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 22 5 17.6S 106.2E 30
+6hr 2 am March 23 4 18.7S 105.8E 50
+12hr 8 am March 23 4 19.8S 105.7E 70
+18hr 2 pm March 23 3 21.1S 105.7E 95
+24hr 8 pm March 23 3 22.4S 105.9E 120
+36hr 8 am March 24 2 24.8S 106.7E 155
+48hr 8 pm March 24 1 26.4S 107.2E 190
+60hr 8 am March 25 1 27.7S 107.5E 225
+72hr 8 pm March 25 tropical low 29.4S 108.7E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Friday

 

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

 

 

Other

si201815_5day M 22 WUND

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:18S106E999:11:00
PANPAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1247UTC 22 MARCH 2018

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude seventeen decimal six south (17.6S)
longitude one hundred and six decimal two east (106.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 115 knots
Central pressure: 928 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 115 knots near the centre easing to 75 knots by 1200 UTC 23
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre, contracting to within
30 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 22 March with very high to phenomenal
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 70 nautical miles of centre, contracting to within
50 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 22 March with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in NW quadrant, with rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 19.8 south 105.7 east
Central pressure 947 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 22.4 south 105.9 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 22 March 2018.

WEATHER PERTH
================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Reunion: Tropical Cyclone Dumazile (11S) 061500Z position nr 25.4S 55.1E, moving SE 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 06 Mar 2018 1652z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile (11S)

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Dumazile) Warning #17
Issued at 06/1500Z

sh11182

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
061200Z — NEAR 25.0S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 54.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 26.8S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 28.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 30.0S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 32.3S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 39.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME TOTALLY CLOUD-FILLED. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE INITIAL
POSITION HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO POSITION, AIDED ONLY BY A LOW
RESOLUTION 060955Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO
REFLECT AN LLC THAT REMAINS TIGHT DESPITE THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.TC
11S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS.
HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION TO
THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE, FOR NOW, CONDUCIVE AT
28C. AS DUMAZILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SSTS TO COOL RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN ETT BY TAU 36 AND BY TAU 72 WILL
TRANSITION INTO A 40-KNOT COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH AN
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

.

METEO FRANCE La Réunion
trajectoire1

 

WTIO31 FMEE 061307
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :69 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 570 SE: 720 SO: 460 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 430 SO: 350 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
24H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
36H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
48H: 08/03/2018 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
60H: 09/03/2018 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 09/03/2018 12 UTC: 40.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2018 12 UTC: 51.0 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.5+
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A CLAIREMENT EVOLUE CET APRESMIDI
VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE ENCORE INCLUS EN
BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. EN SE BASANT SUR L’ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DU CMRS, L’INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 70 KT. EN L’ABSENCE
D’IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES RECENTE, LA POSITION ANALYSEE EST RELATIVEMENT
INCERTAINE.
L’EVOLUTION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE TRADUIT UNE AUGMENTATION
SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D’OUEST. L’IMAGERIE VAPEUR D’EAU SUGGERE
QUE LE SYSTEME INTERAGIT AVEC LE TALWEG D’ALTITUDE PRESENT DANS SON
SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE DES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES EN COURS DE NUIT
PROCHAINE.
LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN CONTOURNANT LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHÈRE. TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, IL
RESTE, JUSQU’EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, EN INTERACTION FAVORABLE AVEC UN
TALWEG D’ALTITUDE SITUE DANS SON SECTEUR OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS (COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION). A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL N’Y A PLUS DE PHASAGE AVEC LA
DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT
AVANT DE SE FONDRE DANS LA CIRCULATION D’OUEST. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. L’INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN FIN D’ECHEANCE,
QUAND LE SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D’OUEST EN
DIRECTION DE L’ILE DE KERGUELEN QUI POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE
DEGRADATION DU TEMPS EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 6 Mar, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DUMAZILE is currently located near 25.0 S 54.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DUMAZILE is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DUMAZILE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Reunion
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

201811s_01

Current Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

Other

 

(Above image: @wunderground)

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 061225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO MORE THAN 550 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 230
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 310 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
26.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

QIO26 FIMP 061245

1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

 

 

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII (S) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS, ISSUED ON TUESDAY 06 MARCH 2018 AT 1240 UTC.

 

 

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF GALE FORCE.

NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS TOGETHER

WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITH HEAVY SWELLS EXIST IN AREA BOUNDED

BY LATITUDES 20S TO 30S AND LONGITUDES 55E TO 63E.

STRONG GUST UNDER SQUALLS.

 

 

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS OBSERVED AT 1200 UTC ON TUESDAY 06 MARCH

2018.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ‘DUMAZILE’ 960 HPA WAS CENTERED NEAR 24.7 S AND 53.9

E MOVEMENT SOUTH SOUTH EASTERLY 08 KT.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05S 60E, 06S 66E, 07S 70E.

WAVE NEAR 11S 69E, 12S 93E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19S 56E, 23S 59E, 26S 57E INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE

‘DUMAZILE’.

ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 18S 59E, 22S 61E, 27S 58E INTO TROPICAL

CYCLONE ‘ DUMAZILE’

REMNANT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM AXIS ALONG 25S 73E, 24S 82E, 25S 90E.

HIGH 1029 HPA NEAR 38S 71E.

 

 

PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO WEDNESDAY 07 MARCH 2018 AT 1200

UTC.

 

 

WEST 8/1: AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

 

REMAINDER 8/1: EAST NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 GUSTING

30. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/2: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. SOUTH EASTERLY

TO EASTERLY 15-25 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE IN NORTH, ROUGH IN SOUTH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEM

AXIS, SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS

BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/3: CLOCKWISE 10-15 AROUND WAVE IN NORTH EAST. EASTERLY TO EAST

NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN REMAINING EAST. NORTH WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY

10-20 GUSTING 30 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE BECOMING ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY

ROUGH IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH WEST AND NORTH EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS

ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

 

 

8/4: VARIABLE 05-10 IN EXTREME NORTH. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY

10-20 ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME NORTH EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/5: NORTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY . SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

 

 

8/6: NORTHERLY TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 05 IN EAST. NORTH WESTERLY TO

WESTERLY 05-10 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY

MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/7: EAST NORTH EASTERLY BACKING TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 10-20. SEA

MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS

 

 

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

WIND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN REMAINING 8/1.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Syria: Humanitarian Aid Reaches Eastern Ghouta – Published 05 Mar 2018 1522z (GMT/UTC)

1h3a0332-700x400

icrc1

ICRC Syria entering Eastern Ghouta with @SYRedCrescent and @UN. (Image @ICRC_sy)

The Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) and humanitarian partners delivered 46 truckloads of food relief aid for 27,500 people and health items for more than 70,000 people inside Duma in eastern Ghouta.

The convoy included aid from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the United Nations, and SARC. The truckloads included food baskets, flour, medical supplies, a kidney treatment facility, baby milk and nutritional foods.

The Syrian Arab Red Crescent included a mobile clinic to support SARC’s medical facilities functioning in Duma, and to provide rapid primary healthcare to children and vulnerable people.

Eng. Khaled Hboubati, SARC’s President said: “SARC volunteers and staff stand ready 24/7 to deliver humanitarian support to all people in need in Syria”. He added, “this convoy to Duma/Eastern Ghouta is the first one as approved by the humanitarian aid monthly plan of the Syrian High Relief Committee”.

The last convoy entered Eastern Ghouta on Feb 14th, 2018. – SARC

(Images below: SARC)

SARC4.jpgSARC3.jpgSARC2.jpg

SARC6

SARC7

New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone GITA 192100Z position near 36.5S 168.1E, moving SE 28kt (JTWC) – Updated 19 Feb 2018 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone GITA 09P

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

(See updates in comments below)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita) Warning #44 Final Warning
Issued at 19/2100Z

sh091810

09p_191800sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
191800Z — NEAR 35.5S 167.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.5S 167.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 39.6S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 43.3S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 36.5S 168.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM
NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE
SOUTH DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GITA IS
NOW ASSESSED AS FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL. DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ASYMMETRIC LLCC STRUCTURE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE VWS AND LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE JET HAS HELPED MAINTAIN THE STRONG CORE WINDS DURING THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55
KNOTS BASED ON THE LARGE SWATH OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS IN A 191125Z
ASCAT PASS. TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST, WITH A VERY GRADUAL DISSIPATION TREND. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated14

New Zealand

metservice-logo

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0301 UTC 19-Feb-2018

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

TC Gita was analysed near 31S 162E at midday today (Monday), outside
the tropics, and is likely to be re-classified into an extra-tropical
cyclone this evening. It is expected to then move towards New Zealand
during the next 24 to 48 hours.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC TUE 20-FEB-2018
Tropical Cyclone Gita is likely to be re-classified this evening and
is forecast to track southeast towards New Zealand as a deep
extra-tropical cyclone.

Meanwhile, a low analysed near 18.0S 157.7W at midday today (Monday),
northwest of the Southern Cook Islands, remains in an unfavourable
environment during the next 3 days and therefore has only very low
chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone during the next 3 days.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC FRI 23-FEB-2018
No significant lows are expected during the outlook forecast period.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Tue 20-Feb-2018

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2018

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Feb, 2018 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm GITA is currently located near 35.5 S 167.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). GITA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Zealand
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
New Plymouth (39.1 S, 174.1 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Wellington (41.3 S, 174.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Greymouth (42.5 S, 171.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Christchurch (43.5 S, 172.6 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hastings (39.6 S, 176.8 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Hamilton (37.8 S, 175.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201809p9201809p_09

Probability of tropical storm winds to 12 hours lead:

201809p_1f

Other

sp201809_5day9

(Image: @underground)

Two Unusual Tropical Cyclones Affect Australia and New Zealand

Dr. Jeff Masters February 19, 2018, 12:10 PM EST

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Marine Weather Bulletin for Subtropic

Area 25S to 40S, western boundary from 40S 163E to 29S 170E then to 25S 170E, eastern boundary 170W.Issued by MetService at 7:54am Tuesday 20 Feb 2018

Forecast valid to 1:00am Wednesday 21 Feb 2018: Former cyclone Gita near 36S 167E moving southeast 30kt. Southwest of line 40S 175W 34S 180 29S 170E: Clockwise 25kt about Gita, with storms and gales as in warning 340, clearing north of 35S by 201200UTC, broad areas heavy clockwise swell, and poor visibility in areas of rain south of low centre.

Outlook following 72 hours
Ridge near 36S 170W, extending northwest, moving slowly east. Former Cyclone Gita expected near 42S 175E at 201200UTC moving southeast. Southwest of ridge: Northerly quarter 20 to 30kt, turning clockwise about Former Cyclone Gita, with storms, gales and heavy swell near Gita. All gradually easing.

STORM WARNING 340
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and FORTIES
AT 191800UTC
Over waters east of western boundary.
Low 976hPa, former Cyclone GITA, near 36S 167E moving southeast 30kt.
1. Within 120 nautical miles of low in western semicircle: Clockwise 50kt easing to 35kt next 6-12 hours.
2. Outside area 1 and within 180 nautical miles of low in northeast quadrant: Clockwise 50kt easing to 35kt next 6-12 hours.
3. Outside areas 1 and 2 and within 240 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 35kt.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 334.

Issued at 7:31am Tuesday 20 Feb 2018

================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (WA) : Tropical Cyclone KELVIN 10S 181500Z position nr 20.6S 122.5E, moving SSE ~5.9kt (BoM) – Updated 18 Feb 2018 1715z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN (10S)

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin continues to weaken and is expected to weaken below cyclone strength on Monday morning. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h will ease over the next few hours – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin

Issued at 11:53 pm AWST Sunday 18 February 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 33.

KELVIN NZ TRACK 18

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin continues to weaken and is expected to weaken below cyclone strength on Monday morning. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h will ease over the next few hours.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Inland areas of the far eastern Pilbara, far northwest North Interior District and adjacent areas of the western Kimberley.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 11:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South, 122.5 degrees East , 125 kilometres north northeast of Telfer and 225 kilometres south southeast of Bidyadanga .
Movement: south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is weakening as it moves inland across the far east Pilbara as a category 2 tropical cyclone. Kelvin will weaken below cyclone strength during Monday morning as it continues to move inland and track towards the south southeast. Gales may persist in the eastern quadrants of the system till Tuesday morning.

Hazards:

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour and very heavy rainfall are likely to be occurring near the centre of the tropical cyclone in the far eastern Pilbara. DESTRUCTIVE winds will ease in the next few hours.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely over remaining parts of the far eastern Pilbara, far northwest North Interior District and adjacent areas of the western Kimberley. The area of GALES will move further inland, possibly as far as Telfer and Parnngurr early Monday morning if the system moves closer than expected. GALES should ease from Monday mid morning as the system weakens below tropical cyclone strength.

DAMAGING WINDS to 100 kilometres per hour may persist to the east of the system once it weakens below tropical cyclone intensity until Tuesday morning.

Heavy rainfall is likely to continue near the system over the far west Kimberley, far east Pilbara and western North Interior during Monday and Tuesday. Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near Telfer and Punmu need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR: People in communities in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Sandfire, including Sandfire are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 11 pm February 18 2 20.6S 122.5E 35
+6hr 5 am February 19 1 21.3S 122.7E 50
+12hr 11 am February 19 tropical low 22.1S 122.9E 70
+18hr 5 pm February 19 tropical low 22.9S 123.1E 95
+24hr 11 pm February 19 tropical low 23.8S 123.3E 120
+36hr 11 am February 20 tropical low 25.5S 123.6E 155
+48hr 11 pm February 20 tropical low 27.1S 124.2E 190
+60hr 11 am February 21 tropical low 28.9S 125.5E 230
+72hr 11 pm February 21 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Monday

ide00135-201802181530

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Kelvin) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 18/0300Z

sh10182

10s_180000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
180000Z — NEAR 19.2S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 121.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 20.1S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 21.4S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 23.0S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 24.7S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 121.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD EYE WALL WITH DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME REVEALS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL INNER EYEWALL NOW POSITIONED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON RADAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 172219Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYAN RING SURROUNDING THE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF EIR
IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171913Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 10S
WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TOP OF TC 10S AS WELL. THIS
RESULTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 10S IS NOW OVER LAND AND SO IS NO
LONGER SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE SSTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE
LAND INTERACTION, TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGH
TAU 12 AS IS COMMONLY SEEN IN THIS REGION. TC 10S WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST AND STEADILY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated12

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN is currently located near 19.2 S 121.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). KELVIN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KELVIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lagrange (18.7 S, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Broome (18.0 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Telfer (21.7 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201810s2201810s_02

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT :

201810s_0g

Current probability of tropical storm winds at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT:

201810s_0f2

Other

si201810_5day2

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WOAU01 AMMC 181157
IDY21000
40:3:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1157UTC 18 February 2018

GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous westerly flow developing from 182100UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 50S090E 50S080E 46S080E 47S086E 50S090E.

FORECAST
Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots developing west of 083E by 182100UTC, and
extending throughout by 190600UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate swell.
================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Vietnam: Tropical Depression SANBA 02W 131500Z position nr 9.2N 122.6E, WSW 15kt (JTWC) – Updated 13 Feb 2018 1522z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression SANBA (02W)

(BASYANG in Philippines)

“BASYANG” HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER DUMAGUETE CITY, NEGROS ORIENTAL AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS SULU SEA – PAGASA

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 02W (Sanba) Warning #20
Issued at 13/1500Z

wp0218102w_131200sair

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
131200Z — NEAR 9.2N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 123.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 9.1N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 9.1N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 9.6N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 10.3N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 11.1N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 11.3N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 122.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated3

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #17
FOR:Tropical Depression Basyang
Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

ISSUED AT:11:00 PM, 13 February 2018

“BASYANG” HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER DUMAGUETE CITY, NEGROS ORIENTAL AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS SULU SEA

  • Scattered to widespread moderate to heavy rains will prevail in the next 24 hours over Palawan and Visayas. Meanwhile, scattered light to moderate with at times heavy rains is expected over Bicol Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the provinces of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi. Residents of these areas must continue monitoring for updates, take appropriate measures against possible flooding and landslides, and coordinate with their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
  • Sea travel remains risky over the seaboards of areas under Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS), as well as the seaboards of Northern Luzon and of Visayas, the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and of Mindanao, and the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon due to the Tropical Depression and the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.
  • Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) elsewhere are now lifted.

 

 

PAGASA Track Satellite Image

 

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “BASYANG” was estimated based on all available data at In the vicinity of Santa Catalina, Negros Oriental (09.3 °N, 123.0 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 60 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West Southwest at 26 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): In the vicinity of Quezon, Palawan(9.1°N, 117.9°E)
  • 48 Hour(Thursday evening):80 km South Southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(10.4°N, 113.7°E)
  • 72 Hour(Friday evening): 430 km West Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(12.0°N, 110.3°E)

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao Impacts of the wind
#1
(30-60kph expected in 36 hrs)
Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo groups of islands Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Bohol, and Cebu Northern section of Misamis Occidental, and northern section of Zamboanga del Norte ->Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
->Light damage to medium to low risk structures
->Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
->Twigs of small trees may be broken.
->Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.

Vietnam

NCHMF

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
Track VN
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

13 Tuesday, February 13, 2018 9.5 125 TS 65 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

13 Wednesday, February 14, 2018 9.2 119 8 65 km/hour
13 Thursday, February 15, 2018 9.5 115.5 8 65 km/hour
13 Friday, February 16, 2018 10.7 112.7 TD 56 km/hour
13 Saturday, February 17, 2018 11 110 Low 28 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 PM Tuesday, February 13, 2018

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression SANBA is currently located near 9.2 N 123.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). SANBA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Bonobono (8.7 N, 117.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201802w1201802w_01

Other

wp201802

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

18021321

WWJP25 RJTD 131200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 966 HPA
AT 59N 165E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA ALMOST STATIONARY.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 1008 HPA AT 39N 162E
MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1010 HPA
AT 40N 118E NORTH CHINA MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 28N 128E EAST 25 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 162E TO 38N 167E 37N 171E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 162E TO 34N 158E 30N 152E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1802 SANBA (1802) 1004 HPA AT 09.2N 123.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 130600

TTT WARNING 9

AT 0600 13 FEBRUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION {SANBA} (1802) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140600 ZERO NINE POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 150600 ONE ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX EAST AND AT 160600 ONE ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

New Caledonia/ Norfolk Island/ New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone FEHI 08P 292100Z nr 24.5S 163.9E, moving SSE 23Kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Jan 2018 2212Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FEHI 08P

New Caledonia, Norfolk Island & New Zealand be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET. – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Fehi) Warning #08
Issued at 29/2100Z

sh08182

08p_291800sair

 

WTPS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291800Z — NEAR 23.4S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 165 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 163.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 27.9S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 32.4S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 26 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 37.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 29 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 42.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DECREASING AND HIGHLY SHEARED DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY
291839Z GPM 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A
291235Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS) AND A MULTI-SENSOR SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI
HAS LIKELY COMPLETED TRANSITION TO A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. TC FEHI
CURRENTLY LIES UNDER STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER
ONLY MARGINAL (26-27 DEGREES C) SSTS. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION
INDICATES A STRONG WARM ANOMALY IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER, WITH A
WEAK WARM ANOMALY PRESENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SUPPORTING THE
ASSESSMENT THAT TC FEHI IS IN FACT SUB-TROPICAL. THE STRONG VWS IS
BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND
TAU 24. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSITY FROM TAU 24 TO 48,
AS IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME COMPLETELY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48, AS A 50
KNOT SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

logoimage

65660

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 292022 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI CENTRE 988HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7S 163.9E AT
291800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 21 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 06 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO SOUTHEAST OF PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES EAST OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO SOUTHEAST BY THE
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC APPROXIMATELY 45
NAUTICAL MILES FROM EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, GIVING DT=3.0 MET=2.5
AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING, 3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC 25.6S 164.2E MOV S AT 18 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC 28.7S 164.0E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 31.4S 164.4E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 34.6S 165.1E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 302000 UTC.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jan, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FEHI is currently located near 23.4 S 163.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). FEHI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 60% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Greymouth (42.5 S, 171.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Christchurch (43.5 S, 172.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Dunedin (45.9 S, 170.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Wellington (41.3 S, 174.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Invercargill (46.4 S, 168.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    New Plymouth (39.1 S, 174.1 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201808p1201808p_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

sp201808_5day

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

GALE WARNING 023 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 291921 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI CENTRE 988HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7
SOUTH 163.9 EAST AT 291800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.7S 163.9E AT 291800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 21 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.6S 164.2E AT 300600 UTC
AND NEAR 28.7S 164.0E AT 301800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 020.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

La Reunion/ Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA 06S 191500Z nr 25.7S 52.3E, moving SSW 14Kt (JTWC) – Updated 19 Jan 2018 1905Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA 06S

⚠️ La Reunion beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET- JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) Warning #28
Issued at 19/1500Z

sh06184

 

06s_191200sams

Google Earth Overlay
WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
191200Z — NEAR 25.0S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 52.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 27.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 30.4S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 32.2S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 33.0S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 34.7S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE
IMAGERY FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 191157Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH
POINT 06S WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AROUND TAU 12, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
(<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC BERGUITTA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE DUE TO FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGHOUT ETT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//
NNNN

RSMC LA REUNION

trajectoire B 19

ZCZC 245
WTIO30 FMEE 191214 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 52.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SW: 700 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 560 SW: 440 NW: 130
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/22 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/22 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/23 12 UTC: 37.0 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/24 12 UTC: 39.0 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-lalo6

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 19 Jan, 2018 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BERGUITTA is currently located near 22.8 S 54.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). BERGUITTA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Reunion
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 85% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

201806s3201806s_04

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

si201806_5day3

(Above image: @wunderground)

Other

dt1iomlvmaaonip

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 561
WTIO20 FMEE 181242 CCA
……………CORRECTIVE…………..
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 61.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
22.6 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Australia (WA): Tropical Cyclone JOYCE 05S 121800Z nr 20.7S 119.3E, moving SW 08kt (TCWC Perth) – Updated 12 Jan 2018 2145z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone JOYCE 05S

Australia: Tropical Cyclone Warning for Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey, and inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar.

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Joyce

Issued at 2:44 am AWST Saturday 13 January 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 34.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Joyce is moving southwest, inland from the east Pilbara coast. Although Joyce will weaken this morning, heavy rain and gusty winds are likely to continue along its track over the weekend.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey, and inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar..

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Sandfire to Pardoo Roadhouse.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Joyce at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.7 degrees South, 119.3 degrees East , 70 kilometres northwest of Marble Bar and 85 kilometres east southeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Joyce should weaken this morning as it tracks to the southwest through the inland Pilbara.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour are possible along the coast from Pardoo Roadhouse through to De Grey and to inland areas as far as Marble Bar for a period on Saturday morning.

Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are likely to continue near the track of the system over the weekend. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 to 100 mm are expected, with isolated heavier falls of 100-250 mm possible near the system centre.

A Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches and Warnings are current. Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in areas from Pardoo Roadhouse to De Grey and inland to Marble Bar need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR with CAUTION: People in areas from Wallal Downs to Pardoo Roadhouse are advised that the wind dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid any dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 13 1 20.7S 119.3E 35
+6hr 8 am January 13 tropical low 21.6S 118.5E 60
+12hr 2 pm January 13 tropical low 22.6S 117.6E 80
+18hr 8 pm January 13 tropical low 23.8S 116.8E 105
+24hr 2 am January 14 tropical low 24.9S 116.0E 130
+36hr 2 pm January 14 tropical low 27.1S 114.6E 165
+48hr 2 am January 15 tropical low 28.6S 113.6E 200
+60hr 2 pm January 15 tropical low 29.9S 113.0E 235
+72hr 2 am January 16 tropical low 31.1S 112.8E 270

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Saturday

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Joyce) Warning #12A CORRECTED Corrected Final Warning
Issued at 12/1500Z

sh0518105s_121200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS33 PGTW 121500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 20.3S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 119.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 21.8S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 23.9S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 26.2S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 119.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM EAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYSTEM NOW INLAND WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH SATELLITE FIXES AND PORT HEDLAND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BANDS WITH A
CENTRAL VORTEX JUST EAST OF THE STATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM BEDOUT ISLAND
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC 05S
ON A TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LAND INTERACTION
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 05S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING OF AUSTRALIA.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jan, 2018 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm JOYCE is currently located near 20.3 S 119.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). JOYCE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Nullagine (21.9 S, 120.1 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Newman (23.3 S, 119.6 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Gascoyne Junction (25.1 S, 115.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

201805s1201805s_01

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:21S119E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1846UTC 12 JANUARY 2018

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Joyce was centred over land within 20 nautical
miles of
latitude twenty decimal seven south (20.7S)
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal three east (119.3E)
Recent movement : southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots over water easing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 13 January.

Winds above 34 knots within 75 nautical miles of centre over water until 0000
UTC 13 January with rough to very rough seas and low to moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 13 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 22.6 south 117.6 east over
land
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 13 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 24.9 south 116.0 east over
land
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 13 January 2018.

WEATHER PERTH

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone AVA (03S) 082100Z position nr 27.7S 46.8E, moving WSW 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 08 Jan 2018 2145z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone AVA (03S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Ava) Warning #25
Issued at 08/2100Z

sh0318103s_081200sams

Google Earth Overlay

 

 
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 27.3S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 46.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 28.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 33.7S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 37.3S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 32 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 46.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 490 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTING THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS)
AND BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BEING OFFSET BY
COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HOWEVER, THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 03S WILL
INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRIOR TO TAU 12,
THE TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WTIH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTH THROUGH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WAS NOT PREDICTED IN THE
MODEL SOLUTION. DUE TO THE INACCURATE PREDICTION OF THE SYSTEMS
INITIAL DIRECTION THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

ZCZC 601
WTIO30 FMEE 081856
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 670 SE: 520 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 41.1 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 46.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/11 18 UTC: 49.2 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AVA’S STRUCTURE REMAINS ATYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM WITH A POOR LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION SEEN ON LATEST MW IMAGERY ALONG WITH DISPLACED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ON THE LATEST MSG1 IMAGERY, AN EXPOSED VORTEX IS SEEN
SOUTH OF FORT-DAUPHIN. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT
GALES FORCE WINDS ARE STILL ASSUMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE TRACK HAS TURNED WESTWARDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT TOMOROW, THE
RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND AVA SHOULD GRADUALLY CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.
A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD IS GRADUALLY
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BECOME INSUFFICIENT.
FROM WEDNESDAY, AVA SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAK, AND SHOULD EVOLVE PROGRESSIVELY IN WARM CORE SECLUSION.
AVA EXTRATROPICALISATION PROCESS IS FORECASTED TO BE ACHIEVE FROM
THURSDAY EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.=
NNNN

trajectoire1

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-lalo1

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jan, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AVA is currently located near 27.3 S 46.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). AVA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the French Southern Ocean and Antarctic Lands
        probability for TS is 95% in about 72 hours
    the Heard & McDonald Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201803s1201803s_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

si201803_5day1

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 905
WTIO24 FMEE 081841
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP 300 NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
28.8 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
31.2 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
NNNN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Vietnam: Typhoon Tembin/ Vinta 33W 241200Z nr 8.3N 112.1E, moving W 13kt 975hPa (JMA) – Updated 24 Dec 2017 1438z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Tembin (33W)

(Vinta in Philippines)

TYPHOON “VINTA” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR). – PAGASA

logo

1727-003

TY 1727 (Tembin)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 24 December 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 24 December>
Scale
Intensity Strong
Center position N8°20′ (8.3°)
E112°05′ (112.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°25′ (8.4°)
E109°25′ (109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N8°30′ (8.5°)
E106°55′ (106.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 180 km (95 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N9°25′ (9.4°)
E102°55′ (102.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #29-FINAL
FOR:Typhoon Vinta
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

ISSUED AT:10:30 AM, 24 December 2017

TYPHOON “VINTA” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

  • Scattered to widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rains will still prevail over Palawan, especially over the southern section. Residents of these areas must take appropriate actions against flooding and landslides, coordinate with their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates.
  • Sea travel remains risky over the western seaboard of Palawan due to the Typhoon.

 

 

PAGASA Track Satellite Image

 

Location of eye/center: At 9:30 AM today, the eye of Typhoon “VINTA” was located based on all available data at 290 km South of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR) (08.4 °N, 114.2 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 145 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 585 km West Southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan(8.7°N, 109.3°E)

 

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated7

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Dec, 2017 6:00 GMT

Typhoon TEMBIN is currently located near 8.3 N 113.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). TEMBIN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TEMBIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bac Lieu (9.3 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cambodia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Can Tho (10.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Nam Can (8.8 N, 105.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Duong Dong (10.2 N, 104.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Kompong Som (10.6 N, 103.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phnom Penh (11.6 N, 104.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Kracheh (12.5 N, 106.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
    Kas Kong (11.3 N, 103.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201733w3201733w_03

 

Other

wp201733_5day3

(Above image: @wunderground)

Tropical Storm Tembin: Philippines rescuers seek victims

99351631_mediaitem99351630

The Salvador district is among those badly affected – REUTERS

“Rescuers are searching for victims of a tropical storm in the southern Philippines which has killed some 200 people in mudslides and flash floods.

Rescue teams have yet to reach some of the affected areas on Mindanao island.

About 150 people are still missing after Storm Tembin swept through the region, with another 70,000 displaced from their homes.

The rescue effort is being hampered by continuing heavy rain, power cuts and blocked roads.

In the early hours of Sunday, Tembin, known as Vinta in the Philippines, was south of the Spratly Islands, heading towards southern Vietnam. It had gathered strength, with maximum winds of 120km/h (75 mph).

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he was saddened by the loss of life, adding that the UN was ready to help.

There are fears the death toll will rise further.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is due to visit communities affected by Storm Tembin on Sunday.

Police said 135 people had been killed and 72 were missing in northern Mindanao. Forty-seven were killed and 72 missing in the Zamboanga peninsula. In Lanao del Sur, another 18 died.

Between 40,000 and 60,000 people are reported to be housed in evacuation centres.

The mountain village of Dalama was one of the worst affected places. Houses were buried in mud or engulfed in floodwaters.

“The flood was already close and the people were not able to get out from their homes,” survivor Armando Sangcopan told local TV.

The bodies of eight children were extracted from thick mud in the town of Salvador in Lanao del Norte, the Inquirer reports.

“It’s very painful to see the dead bodies of children, whom we also considered to be our own,” the principal, Ricardo Abalo, told the paper.

Aid workers said people had not heeded warnings to evacuate before Tembin arrived, either because they believed the storm would not be severe or they had nowhere else to go.

Risks of disease

Many victims were swept away from low-lying residential areas when the flash floods and landslides struck.

More deaths were reported in Bukidnon, Iligan and Misamis Occidental.

Andrew Morris, from the UN children’s agency Unicef in Mindanao, said in some areas there were big risks of disease, particularly for children, and restoring clean water supplies would be a priority.

“Lanao del Sur province is the poorest in the Philippines, and in the past seven months there have been around 350,000 people displaced in that province because of fighting,” he told the BBC, referring to battles between government forces and Islamist militants in Marawi.

Meanwhile, Richard Gordon, of the Philippines Red Cross, told the BBC: “We have already provided water and hot food.

“And we’re going to be distributing non-food items – certainly blankets, mosquito nets and certainly hygiene kits for those who are in evacuation centres so that we can alleviate the suffering of many of the folks there.

A week ago, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak hit the central Philippines, killing dozens.

The region is still recovering from Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 5,000 people and affected millions in 2013.” – BBC News

99347615_philippinesmindanao4641217

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17122415

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 231200

WTJP22 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1727 TEMBIN (1727) 975 HPA
AT 08.3N 112.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 08.4N 109.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 08.5N 106.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 09.4N 102.9E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Philippines

As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone within Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Vietnam: Tropical Storm KAI-TAK/ URDUJA (32W) 201800Z nr 6.9N 110.7E, moving W 12kt 998hPa (JMA) – Updated 20 Dec 2017 2015z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (32W)

URDUJA in Philippines

TROPICAL STORM “URDUJA” OUTSIDE PAR – PAGASA

MAXIMUMSIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

 

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1726-001

TS 1726 (Kai-tak)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 20 December 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 20 December>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N6°55′ (6.9°)
E110°40′ (110.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 280 km (150 NM)
SE 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 21 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N6°30′ (6.5°)
E109°10′ (109.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 21 December>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N6°05′ (6.1°)
E107°30′ (107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 22 December>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N4°55′ (4.9°)
E104°35′ (104.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated3

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 32W (Kai-tak) Warning #27
Issued at 20/1500Z

 

wp3217232w_201200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 6.9N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.9N 111.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 6.2N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 5.9N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 5.5N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 5.2N 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 6.7N 111.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

PAGASA-DOST

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Dec, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK is currently located near 6.9 N 111.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). KAI-TAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Phan Thiet (10.9 N, 108.1 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Bac Lieu (9.3 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Nam Can (8.8 N, 105.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Can Tho (10.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Ho Chi Minh City (10.8 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201732w2201732w_02

Other

wp201732_5day1

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

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17122021

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 201800

WTJP21 RJTD 201800
WARNING 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1726 KAI-TAK (1726) 998 HPA
AT 06.9N 110.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 06.5N 109.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 06.1N 107.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 04.9N 104.6E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

India/ Arabian Sea: Tropical Cyclone OCKHI (03B) 041500Z position nr 15.7N 69.1E, moving NNE 06kt (JTWC) – Updated 04 Dec 2017 2020z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone OCKHI (03B)

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Ockhi) Warning #12
Issued at 02/1500Z

io03171

03b_041200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
041200Z — NEAR 15.4N 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 68.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 16.8N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 18.7N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 20.9N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 22.5N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1367 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH 37 AND 91
GHZ SSMIS IMAGES FROM 041122Z, SHOWING THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
STRUGGLING TO KEEP TOGETHER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND DISPLACED NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WHICH IS ON CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM DEMS AND PGTW, COMBINED
WITH A 041052Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AS THE ADVANCING
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS A RESULT. A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS STEERING TC 03B ON A COURSE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND IN
COMBINATION WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WILL SEVERELY WEAKEN TC
03B WHILE OVER OPEN WATER. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH JUST AFTER TAU 36, WITH THE REMNANT LOW
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT AROUND TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH ONLY
MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION. OVERALL THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

rb0-fcst

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 4 Dec, 2017 12:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI is currently located near 15.4 N 68.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). OCKHI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OCKHI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Diu (20.7 N, 71.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201703b1

201703b_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

TC OCKHI WUND

(Above image: @wunderground)

OTHER

Cyclone Ockhi, which claimed 13 lives in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, has now moved beyond Lakshadweep, the weather department said bringing huge relief to the people of the rain-battered states.

However, many fishermen are still missing and warships have been deployed to comb the southeastern coast for fishing boats missing in wild seas.

Ockhi is now expected to travel north towards Mumbai and Gujarat in the next 48 hours, according to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Director S Sudevan in Thiruvananthapuram, though it is likely to lose intensity, reported news agency Reuters.

As many as 531 fishermen, stranded in the choppy waters off the Kerala and the Lakshadweep coasts due to Cyclone Ockhi, have been rescued, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said today. So far 393 people from Kerala have been rescued, Mr Vijayan said, as the state government announced a compensation of Rs. 10 lakh to the family of those who died in the storm.

Rescue operations are still on with Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard’s coordinated efforts in Thiruvananthapuram-Kollam coastal area. In Tamil Nadu, 60 fishermen are still missing and the Navy has been called in for their rescue
The Tamil Nadu government has also requested the centre to deploy helicopters of the Navy and the Coast Guard for the search and rescue efforts.” – NDTV (Reported by Sneha Mary Koshy, Edited by Soumyajit Majumder | Updated: December 02, 2017 20:26 IST)

FULL STORY

https://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/as-cyclone-ockhi-wanes-kanyakumari-remains-in-knee-deep-water-powerless-1782641

MARITIME/SHIPPING

3Dasiasec_ir1 imd 04

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 041800

WTIN01 DEMS 041800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 04/1800 UTC 04 DECEMBER 2017.

PART-I
THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OCKHI OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 19 KMPH
DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 2030 HRS IST OF 04 TH
DECEMBER, 2017 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE
16.1º N AND LONGITUDE 69.5º E, ABOUT 660 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SURAT AND 470 KM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY
AND CROSS SOUTH GUJARAT AND ADJOINING NORTH MAHARASHTRA
COASTS NEAR SURAT AS A DEEP DEPRESSION BY THE NIGHT OF
TOMORROW, THE 5 TH DECEMBER 2017. (.)
PART:-II
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND EQUATORIAL INDIAN
OCEAN WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEEP DEPRESSION DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
48 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU¬SOUTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS DURING NEXT 3 DAYS (.)
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF
TAMILNADU¬SRI LANKA COASTS EXTENDING UPTO 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL PERSISTS (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 75 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:N/NW-
LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 15/25 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
2)REST AREA: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 63 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 63 DEG E 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA :8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1-4 MTR(.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 55 DEG E:NE/N-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 55 DEG E N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE
E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 66 DEG E:SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E:6-4 NM(.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:N/NW-LY 10/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 60/70
KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E AND S OF 22 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)E OF 65 DEG E:12-15 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 2-5 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 65 DEG E N/NE-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E:CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N:WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 66 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N:3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)E OF 65 DEG E 5-6 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 3-4 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT :3-4 MTR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-4-5 MTR(.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS BEC E/NE-LY 10/25
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 15 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA :FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N 3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA :10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:0.5-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)NE-LY 10/20 KTS BEC E/NE-LY 15/25
KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N :3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-4 MTR(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Vietnam/ South China Sea: Tropical Storm Haikui 111200Z 17.8N 115.6E, moving W Slow 998 hPa (JMA) – Updated 11 Nov 2017 1515z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Haikui 30W

( TS Salome in Philippines)

logo

1724-002

TS 1724 (Haikui)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 11 November 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 11 November>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N17°50′ (17.8°)
E115°35′ (115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 220 km (120 NM)
SE 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N17°30′ (17.5°)
E112°30′ (112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 November>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°00′ (16.0°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 November>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°50′ (14.8°)
E108°00′ (108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slow
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

Philippines

PAGASA-DOST

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #12-FINAL
FOR:Tropical Storm Salome
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

ISSUED AT:5:00 AM, 11 November 2017 (PH Time)

TROPICAL STORM “SALOME” IS NOW OUTSIDE THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

  • Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 200 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.
PAGASA Track Satellite Image
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “SALOME” was estimated based on all available data at 385 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.6 °N, 116.8 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 20 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 775 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.9°N, 113.1°E)
  • 48 Hour(Monday morning):820 km North Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.6°N, 110.8°E)
  • 72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 915 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(17.0°N, 108.3°E)
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final warning for this weather disturbance.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201730w2201730w_02

Other

wp201730_5day2

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

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17111121

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 111200

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1724 HAIKUI (1724) 998 HPA
AT 17.8N 115.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 17.5N 112.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 16.0N 109.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 14.8N 108.0E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST JAPAN November 11 2017 – 14:28:37 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST HONG KONG CHINA November 11 2017 – 14:15:59 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST CHINA November 11 2017 – 14:05:54 UTC

 

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 100600

TTT GALE WARNING 7

AT 0600 10 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM {HAIKUI} (1724) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FIVE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110600 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AT 120600 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 130600 ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Canada/ Ireland/ Atlantic Ocean: Post Tropical Storm RINA 09/1500Z nr 47.0N 45.5W, moving NE 35kt 998mb NHC FL – Updated 09 Nov 2017 2130z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone RINA


National Hurricane Center (FL)

 

rb_lalo-animated7

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
1500 UTC THU NOV 09 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….150NE 240SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 39.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 240SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 180SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.0N 45.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

 

NNNN

 

favicon-mobileCanadian Hurricane Centre (CHC)

track1

Canada Weather Warnings

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Nov, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm RINA is currently located near 44.5 N 47.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). RINA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

201719n2

201719n_02

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1446

WTNT24 KNHC 091446
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017
1500 UTC THU NOV 09 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….150NE 240SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 39.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 240SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 180SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.0N 45.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

 

=============================================================================

IRELAND

Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Small Craft Warning
West to southwest winds, later veering west to northwest, will reach force 6 on all Irish coasts this evening and tonight.

Issued:
Thursday 09 November 2017 17:00

United Kingdom

UKMET HIGH SEAS FORECAST: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast_and_sea/high_seas#area-6

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Andaman Islands/ Thailand/ Myanmar/ India: Tropical Depression 29W 071500Z nr 11.3N 99.9E, moving NNW 07 kt (JTWC) – Updated 07 Nov 2017 1925z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression TWENTYNINE 29W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT  071200Z IS 6 FEET. – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 29W (Twentynine) Warning #06
Issued at 07/1500Z

wp29171

29w_071200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071200Z — NEAR 11.2N 100.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 100.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 11.7N 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 12.4N 96.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 12.9N 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 13.4N 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 14.3N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 99.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTH OF BANGK0K, THAILAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z./
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated4

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 Nov, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression TWENTYNINE is currently located near 8.3 N 102.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 25kts (29 mph). TWENTYNINE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chumphon (10.5 N, 99.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Prachuap Khiri Khan (11.8 N, 99.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
    Ranong (10.0 N, 98.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201729w

201729w_0

NCHMF VIETNAM

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING
TC TRACKS
VN Track 29w 07
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Tuesday, November 07, 2017 10.9 100.1 TD 50 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Wednesday, November 08, 2017 12.7 96.3 TD 56 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:30 AM wednesday, November 07, 2017
Satellite Imagery

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17110721
METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1800 

FQIN01 DEMS 071800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 07 NOVEMBERBER 2017.

PART-I: NO STORM WARNING
PART:-II
THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL FROM COMORIN AREA TO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP AREA PERSISTS.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH KERALA COAST EXTENDING UPTO 3.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER MALAY PENINSULA AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA. WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 65 DEG E SW-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 4 DEG N(.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E :NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N :4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG E 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 65 DEG E:SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E :NNW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 5 DEG N :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 5 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 5 DEG N:4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-2 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO 15 DEG N AND
W OF 70 DEG E:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC E-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 65 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO W OF 70 DEG E:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 63 DEG E (.)
3)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG N :NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 15 DEG N(.)
4)N OF 20 DEG N ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E :4-3 NM(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E :6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N:ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N : NNE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE S OF 12 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 18 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 18 DEG N :6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)N OF 5 DEG N NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE E
OF 82 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N:W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N:NNW-LY 05/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-3 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/20 KTS TO THE E OF 83 DEG E AND S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)E OF 85 DEG N WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)E OF 85 DEG N :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NNE-LY 10/25 KTS
BEC CYCLONIC 05/15 TO THE S OF 15 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1-4 MTR(.)
———————————————
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT(.)
++++

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_CHINA / 1200 

WWCI50 BABJ 071200
1:31:11:01:00
BT
SECURITE=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC NOV.07 2017=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC NOV.07=
FCST VALID 1200UTC NOV.08=
WARNNING=
NIL=
SUMMARY=
NE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER SOUTHWESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
TAIWAN STRAIT AND NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
AND BOHAI
STRAIT AND WESTERN PART OF YELLOW SEA AND WESTERN
PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND BEIBU GULF AND ANDAMAN
SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND SEA EAST OF
SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT
AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
SUNNY VIS GOOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD SUNNY VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD SUNNY VIS GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD OVERCAST BECMG SUNNY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG SUNNY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO ROUGH MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR
TO MOD=
TAIWAN STRAIT
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S BACK NE
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
E WINDS BACK NE 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
BEIBU GULF
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
E WINDS BACK NE 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD MOD RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE ROUGH LIGHT
RAIN VIS MOD TO VERY=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
SW WINDS VEER N 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
KOREA STRAIT
SW WINDS VEER NW 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG CLOUDY VIS MOD TO
GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO VERY=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
E WINDS BACK NE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT
RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH MOD RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO VERY=
SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA
NE WINDS BACK W 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S VEER SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
S WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER W WINDS
08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD
RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR=
SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE
NW WINDS VEER NE 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD
RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS POOR TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
NE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD TO GOOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
E WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S VEER SE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD
MOD RAIN VIS POOR TO MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm Saola 27W 291400Z nr 29.4N 130.2E, moving NE 55kt JMA – Updated 29 Oct 2017 1606z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Saola 27W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

logo

JMA is the lead agency in this area

1722-002

998

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

STS 1722 (Saola)
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 29 October 2017

<Analysis at 14 UTC, 29 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°30′ (36.5°)
E143°00′ (143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 100 km/h (55 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 170 km (90 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 500 km (270 NM)
NW 390 km (210 NM)
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 29 October>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N37°30′ (37.5°)
E144°25′ (144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 100 km/h (55 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 170 km (90 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 500 km (270 NM)
NW 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°55′ (44.9°)
E149°00′ (149.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 110 km/h (60 kt)
Central pressure 952 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area SE 300 km (160 NM)
NW 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N49°10′ (49.2°)
E153°05′ (153.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area SE 480 km (260 NM)
NW 310 km (170 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated27

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 27W (Saola) Warning #40 Final Warning
Issued at 29/1500Z

wp27174

 

27w_291200sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN33 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 34.4N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 065 DEGREES AT 42 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.4N 140.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 40.1N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 46 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 47.2N 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 142.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
42 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 27W IS ASSESSED AS AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BUT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STRONG-GALE
TO STORM-FORCE WINDS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28
FEET.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SAOLA is currently located near 34.4 N 140.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). SAOLA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Petropavloski-Kamchatskiy (53.2 N, 158.7 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201727w4201727w_04

 

Other

 

wp201727wp201727_sat4

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo

17102921

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 291200

WTJP21 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1722 SAOLA (1722) 985 HPA
AT 34.8N 141.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 45 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 44.9N 149.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
952 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 49.2N 153.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 291200

WWJP25 RJTD 291200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 40N 144E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 60N 149E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 60N 149E TO 59N 154E 57N 154E.
WARM FRONT FROM 57N 154E TO 55N 156E 52N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 57N 154E TO 55N 150E 48N 146E 42N 139E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN WESTERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
YELLOW SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST
CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 27N 120E 20N 125E 17N 120E 18N 109E 21N 110E 27N
120E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 55N 175E 55N 180E 33N 180E 34N 175E 55N 175E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 42N 141E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 168E 40N 163E 37N 150E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 06N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 138E NNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 40N 164E EAST 20 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 142E TO 36N 146E 32N 149E.
COLD FRONT FROM 31N 140E TO 28N 138E 26N 134E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1722 SAOLA (1722) 985 HPA AT 34.8N 141.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

El Salvador/ Guatemala: Tropical Storm Selma 20E 271800Z near 11.4N 89.5W, moving NNW ~3.7kt NHC – Published 27 Oct 2017 1955Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Selma 20E

Center of Selma will approach the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Entire coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 9 FEET – JTWC

National Hurricane Center FL

173716_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

173716_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 271736
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Selma Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

…SELMA TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD…

 

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…11.4N 89.5W
ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Entire coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Selma was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 89.5 West. Selma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and the
cyclone is expected to turn toward the north by early Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Selma will approach the coast
of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast before Selma reaches the
coast of Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, southern
Honduras and far western Nicaragua over the next couple of days.
Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in El Salvador
and southern Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early Saturday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Selma are forecast to affect portions
of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala
later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 20E (Selma) Warning #02
Issued at 27/1600Z

ep2017

20e_271200sair

WTPN31 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (SELMA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 10.8N 89.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 89.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 11.8N 89.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 13.0N 90.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 14.2N 89.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 89.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 20E (SELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 2015 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 27 Oct, 2017 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SELMA is currently located near 11.1 N 89.5 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). SELMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    El Salvador
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201720e201720e_0

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1437

WTPZ25 KNHC 271437 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM SELMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017
1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
… PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SELMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 89.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 11.8N 89.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Okinawa/ Japan/ South Korea/ Russia/ West Pacific: SUPER TYPHOON LAN 25W 211500Z position nr 24.7N 132.9E, moving NNE 16kt (JTWC) – Updated 21 Oct 2017 1612z (GMT/UTC)

SUPER TYPHOON LAN (25W)

(=CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Super Typhoon 25W (Lan) Warning #25
Issued at 21/1500Z

wp25174

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 23.8N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 025 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 132.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 27.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
415 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 31.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
430 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 36.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 400 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
420 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 39 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 42.0N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
490 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 132.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

logo

1721-004

993

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1721 (Lan)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 21 October 2017

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 21 October>
Scale Very large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E132°55′ (132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 1100 km (600 NM)
E 950 km (500 NM)
<Estimate for 16 UTC, 21 October>
Scale Very large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N24°40′ (24.7°)
E133°00′ (133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 1100 km (600 NM)
E 950 km (500 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area SE 310 km (170 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30′ (28.5°)
E133°55′ (133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N30°40′ (30.7°)
E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°55′ (32.9°)
E136°35′ (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

NOAA

rb_lalo-animated22

TROPICAL STORM (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at21 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon LAN is currently located near 23.8 N 132.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). LAN is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. LAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201725w4201725w_04

Other

 

wp201725_5day6

wp201725_sat3

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

logo17102121

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA
AT 24.5N 132.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 28.5N 133.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 32.9N 136.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1200

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 54N 138E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 138E TO 53N 141E 52N 142E.
WARM FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 144E 46N 146E.
COLD FRONT FROM 52N 142E TO 49N 142E 44N 138E 41N 130E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 129E 30N 130E 28N 125E 20N 120E 23N 117E 26N
120E 32N 122E 35N 129E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 11.6N 148.3E MARIANAS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 42N 143E 47N 152E 50N 155E 40N 155E 34N 180E 29N 180E 29N
170E 29N 155E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 47N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 130E TO 32N 134E 34N 140E 36N 146E 35N 152E
34N 157E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 925 HPA AT 23.8N 132.5E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Storm Brian batters Ireland and United Kingdom – Updated 21 Oct 2017 1507z (GMT/UTC)

Storm Brian

⚠️ Ireland and United Kingdom beware!

resize_kxyyufnf8tquprb4avshdowe27mpvinc_980x590

web_sat_vis_irl

https://embed.windy.com/embed2.html?lat=53.015&lon=0.703&zoom=5&level=surface&overlay=wind&menu=&message=&marker=&forecast=12&calendar=now&location=coordinates&type=map&actualGrid=&metricWind=kt&metricTemp=%C2%B0C

High winds and flooding as Storm Brian hits Ireland

Storm Brian has resulted in flooding and surface water in areas of the country that were among the worst hit by Storm Ophelia earlier this week. 

Limerick city has been hit by flooding after the River Shannon overflowed.

Limerick City and Council Council has tweeted images of flooding in front of Sarsfield House along Arthur’s Quay and the road at O’Callaghan Strand was also flooded.

The council said there are no reports of houses being flooded.

Flooding in Limerick later receded as water levels in the Shannon fell after the morning high tide.

In Galway city, temporary flood defences erected close to the Spanish Arch landmark proved effective, though the waters came close to reaching some properties.

There have been reports of flooding on roads in other south and west coastal areas.

Motorists are urged to drive with care as there is a lot of surface water on roads in Cork city and county, while conditions are said to be treacherous on the Bailick Road in Midleton.

The Ballyderown to Ballyduff Road is closed in Kilworth due to flooding.

In Co Kilkenny, the Bleach road and surrounding area are flooded.

Fallen trees and localised flooding have also been reported in Co Waterford.

Local authorities in counties Cork, Galway, Kerry and Kilkenny are among those dealing with the latest flooding which is not as severe as earlier in the week and this morning’s high tide around the Cork coast did not result in any flooding as had been feared.

Some localised spot flooding and trees down in a few locations this morning. Please travel with extreme care if you’re out

bbc-blocks-dark “Storm Brian has hit the UK with gale-force winds and high seas – though the weather is not as bad as predicted.

Gusts of over 70mph were recorded on Saturday morning, with forecasters warning of the potential for flooding, power cuts and transport disruption.

Yellow strong wind warnings are still in place across much of Wales, south England and the Midlands.

There are seven flood warnings across England, urging “immediate action”.

Seven flood warnings have also been issued for Wales.” BBC News

There are 6 Flood Warnings in Scotland

“The storm comes after three people were killed and hundreds of thousands of people – mostly in the Irish Republic – were left without power after the remnants of Storm Ophelia battered the British Isles after weakening from its earlier hurricane force.

Strong winds and high seas reached the western coast of Ireland overnight.

Gusts have hit 80mph (130km/h) in the country, said Irish weather agency Met Éireann, and flooding has been reported in some areas as the water level of the River Shannon rose.

The agency issued an orange warning – its second most severe alert – in seven Irish counties and advised motorists to take care, as trees weakened by Storm Ophelia could fall. However, it said the gusts “won’t be anywhere near as strong” as the previous storm.

A race meeting at Fairyhouse has been cancelled and the Cliffs of Moher tourist attraction in County Clare has been closed.

In Wales, trains and ferries have been cancelled and seafront roads closed.

The strongest wind gust has been measured in Mumbles, to the west of Swansea, at 71mph.

Natural Resources Wales said the coastline was likely to be “extremely dangerous this weekend” – with the Met Office predicting gusts of 60mph (96km/h) to 70mph (112km/h).

Tenby RNLI said it had launched its lifeboat to help a person in difficulty at Skrinkle, while Porthcawl RNLI warned people to watch the storm waves on its live feed, after people were spotted taking photographs from the harbour wall.

Ceredigion council has also warned people to “keep away” from seafronts and “be careful” on low-lying land where coastal flooding is possible.

The Met Office’s chief forecaster, Dan Suri, said gusts inland could also reach between 45mph (72km/h) and 55mph (88km/h).

In addition to the flood warnings, the Environment Agency has issued more than 40 flood alerts – meaning flooding is possible – most of which are in the west and south-west of England.

Flood barriers have been put in place in areas including Fowey in Cornwall, but Frank Newell, from the Environment Agency, said the surge had been lower than forecast.

“In terms of impact, we’ve had spray overtopping quaysides, but we don’t have at the moment any reported property flooding,” he said.

Across the UK, National Rail warned the weather could affect train services, with emergency speed restrictions imposed on most of the routes in Wales.

In England, South Western Railway has put a temporary speed restriction in place in both Hampshire and Dorset, and confirmed a tree had blocked the line between Fareham and Southampton – though this has now been cleared.

Speed restrictions are also operating on the Gatwick Express, Southern Rail and Thameslink, with some reduced services to ease congestion.

The Environment Agency’s national flood duty manager, Ben Lukey, warned people against posing for photos during the hazardous conditions.

He said: “We urge people to stay safe along the coast and warn against putting yourself in unnecessary danger by taking ‘storm selfies’ or driving through flood water – just 30cm (11in) is enough to move your car.”” – BBC News

Ireland (ROI)

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Update: Northwesterly winds will continue to reach mean speeds of 65-80 km/h with gusts 110-130 km/h, mainly in coastal areas. Winds will ease to yellow warning level during this evening.

Issued:

Saturday 21 October 2017 13:41

Valid:

Saturday 21 October 2017 14:00 to Saturday 21 October 2017 21:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Heavy rain with accumulations of 30 to 50mm expected over the period

Issued:

Thursday 19 October 2017 19:00

Valid:

Friday 20 October 2017 09:00 to Saturday 21 October 2017 21:00

Explanation of new warning levels

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for Wales, the Midlands, South West, South East, North West and Eastern England

Updated 09:05 on Fri 20th

Valid from 04:00 on Sat 21st to 23:59 on Sat 21st

A spell of strong winds is expected. Western and southern coastal transport routes and communities are likely to be affected by large waves and spray, with potential for flooding of properties. Some transport disruption is likely across the whole warning area, with delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport. Short term loss of power and other services is also possible, as well as damage to trees.

A swathe of strong south or southwesterly winds reaching parts of Wales and southwest England will steadily transfer east and north during the morning. Later in the afternoon winds will gradually turn westerly and wind inland will start to slowly ease. Meanwhile, in western and southern coastal areas winds will start to slowly ease later in the evening. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected widely within the warning area with gusts of 60 to 70 mph along exposed southern and western coastal areas. These are expected to coincide with high tides, leading to locally dangerous conditions around coastal areas in western and southern parts of England and Wales.

Flood Warning

Issued by the Environment Agency or by SEPA in Scotland and Natural Resources Wales in Wales

About the Met Office Weather Warnings

The Met Office warns the public and emergency responders of severe or hazardous weather which has the potential to cause danger to life or widespread disruption through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.

The Met Office issues warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. These warnings are given a colour depending on a combination of the likelihood of the event happening and the impact the conditions may have.

For more information, see the Met Office Weather Warnings Guide.

About Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline – 0345 988 1188

Synoptic Charts

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Met Éireann Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning

Southwest gales or strong gales early this afternoon between Howth Head and Carnsore Pt and on the south Irish Sea.

Otherwise, West to northwest gales or strong gales today and for a time tonight on all Irish Coastal waters and on the Irish Sea, reaching storm force 10 at first between Carnsore Pt and Erris Head

Issued:

Saturday 21 October 2017 13:00

Explanation of new warning levels

METAREA1 / OFF_SHORE_WARNING / 210948

WOUK50 EGRR 210948
GALE WARNING SATURDAY 21 OCTOBER 0948GMT 64

FORTIES
SOUTHEASTERLY SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 DECREASING GALE FORCE 8
IMMINENT

BISCAY
GALE FORCE 8 VEERING NORTHWESTERLY SOON

FITZROY
SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND DECREASING
GALE FORCE 8 SOON

SOLE
SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 VEERING NORTHWESTERLY SOON AND
DECREASING GALE FORCE 8 LATER

LUNDY
WESTERLY STORM FORCE 10 DECREASING SEVERE GALE FORCE 9
SOON

IRISH SEA
SOUTHWESTERLY STORM FORCE 10, VEERING WESTERLY AND
DECREASING SEVERE GALE FORCE 9 IMMINENT

SHANNON ROCKALL
NORTHWESTERLY STORM FORCE 10 DECREASING SEVERE GALE FORCE
9 SOON

HEBRIDES
NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE 8 EXPECTED SOON
METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 210759

WONT54 EGRR 210759
SECURITE

STORM WARNING
AT 210000UTC, LOW 53 NORTH 12 WEST 964 EXPECTED 56 NORTH
01 EAST 986 BY 220000UTC. WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN SOLE UNTIL 211500UTC,
SHANNON UNTIL 211800UTC, AND ROCKALL UNTIL 212100UTC.
WINDS WILL ALSO REACH VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 AT TIMES IN
SHANNON UNTIL 211100UTC. LOW 40 NORTH 50 WEST 995
EXPECTED 53 NORTH 37 WEST 938 BY SAME TIME. WINDS WILL
REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITHIN 300
MILES OF THE LOW CENTRE AFTER 210900UTC. WINDS WILL REACH
HURRICANE FORCE 12 IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN
100 MILES OF THE LOW CENTRE BETWEEN 211000UTC AND
220000UTC
=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ireland/ UK/ North Atlantic: Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA 16/0300Z nr 49.2N 13.3W, moving N 38kt 969mb NHC FL – Updated 16 Oct 2017 0837z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA

(Ophelia= to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)


Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding (see details below) – NHC

⚠️ Ireland and United Kingdom BEWARE!

 

National Hurricane Center (FL)

145012_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

NB: This map (above) uses AST Atlantic Standard Time is 5 hours behind of British Summer Time

145012_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

NB: This map (above) uses AST Atlantic Standard Time is 5 hours behind of British Summer Time

rb_lalo-animated18

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

…OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB…28.62 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

National Weather Warnings

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Ireland

Latest Update
Storm Ophelia (Ex hurricane), situated over county Galway at 1500 today, is continuing to track northeastwards. It will bring further violent and destructive winds for a time, with gusts of 120 and 150 km/h. Some flooding expected also, due to heavy thundery downpours and storm surges in coastal areas.
There is a danger to life and property.

Winds will gradually abate from the south through this evening and tonight.

Issued:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:02

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 01:00

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

Monday 16 October 2017

AMBER WARNING of WIND

for Northern Ireland, SW Scotland, West Wales, Isle Of Man

Between 12:00 Mon 16th and 23:00 Mon 16th

Updated Mon 16th October at 09:58

A spell of very windy weather is expected today in association with ex-Ophelia. Longer journey times and cancellations are likely, as road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected as well as some bridge closures. There is a good chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. Flying debris is likely, such as tiles blown from roofs, as well as large waves around coastal districts with beach material being thrown onto coastal roads, sea fronts and properties. This leads to the potential for injuries and danger to life. This warning has been updated to extend it into parts of north and west Wales and into the extreme southwest of Scotland. The start time has been brought forward to 1200 to cater for southwest Wales but the impacts elsewhere are more likely later in the afternoon and into this evening.

Ex-Ophelia will move northwards across the west of Ireland today bringing some very strong winds to Northern Ireland along with parts of north and west Wales and the extreme southwest of Scotland. Gusts of 55-65 mph are expected widely with 80 mph gusts likely in places. A smaller area of very gusty winds is then likely to run across Northern Ireland from the west with 65-75 mph gusts possible for a short period of time in any one location. Winds are expected to peak across Northern Ireland and north and west Wales this afternoon including this evening’s busy travel period and to peak across southwest Scotland this evening.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND

for Central, Tayside & Fife Highlands & Eilean Siar North East England North West England Northern Ireland SW Scotland, Lothian Borders South West England Strathclyde Wales West Midlands Yorkshire & Humber

Between 10:00 Mon 16th and 23:55 Mon 16th October

Updated Mon 16th October at 10:33

Very strong winds are forecast to affect most western and some central parts of the UK during Monday. These strong winds are forecast in association with the northward track of ex-Ophelia across or near to the west of the British Isles. Southerly winds are most likely to gust between 55 and 65 mph across much of the warning area, especially in the west. There is also the potential for gusts of 80 mph in coastal areas, particularly on the eastern side of Northern Ireland as well as west Wales and the far southwest of Scotland. Please see separate amber warning. The very strong winds will probably extend to parts of northern England along with some southern and central parts of Scotland in the evening as winds veer more southwesterly across the whole warning area.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest and Northeast England.

Updated 13 October at 10:30

Valid from 00:05 on Tue 17th to 15:00 on Tue 17th

A spell of very windy weather is likely on Tuesday in association with ex-Ophelia. Road, rail, air and ferry services might be affected, with a slight chance of longer journeys times and some roads and bridges could close. There is a slight chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time slightly. The northward extent of the warning area across Scotland has been reduced but it has been extended slightly further south across Yorkshire.

 

00_ukmet_boden002

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 16 Oct, 2017 3:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Hurricane OPHELIA is currently located near 49.2 N 13.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). OPHELIA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OPHELIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Scotland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201717n6201717n_06201717n_2f

OPHELIA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 21 hours lead from 15/0300 UTC

Other

at201717_5day6at201717_sat6

Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 1 Hurricane Ophelia: a Rare and Damaging Storm for Ireland (link)

Channel Islands Doppler Radar

radar02

SOURCE: https://www.gov.je/weather/Pages/Radar.aspx

Windy dot com – Interactive, zoomable near real-time wind map (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 160251
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN… AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 70NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT…….150NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 400SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 13.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 60SE 70SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…110NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT…220NE 290SE 290SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 61.9N .1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.2N 13.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

=============================================================================

METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0759
WONT54 EGRR 160759
SECURITE

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, LOW 48 NORTH 14 WEST 963 EXPECTED 57 NORTH
07 WEST 980 BY 170000UTC. HURRICANE FORCE 12 WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN 150 AND
200 MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 161000UTC AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE
11 AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 300
MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 170200UTC. WINDS WILL ALSO
REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 AT TIMES
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 350 MILES OF THE
CENTRE UNTIL 161700UTC. LOW 54 NORTH 35 WEST 993 EXPECTED
61 NORTH 36 WEST 985 BY SAME TIME. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM
170700UTC

 

UKMET HIGH SEAS FORECAST: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast_and_sea/high_seas#area-6

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hainan/ China/ Macau/ Hong Kong: TYPHOON KHANUN 24W 151500Z nr 20.9N 110.7E, moving W 19kt (JTWC) – Updated 15 Oct 2017 1455z (GMT/UTC)

TYPHOON KHANUN (24W)

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

⚠️ Hainan, Macau, Hong Kong, China & Vietnam beware!
Taiwan  Laos be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 24W (Khanun) Warning #14
Issued at 15/1500Z

wp24173

24w_150000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 21.0N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 111.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.8N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 20.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 18.9N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 17.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 16.4N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 110.7E.
TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1720-002

TY 1720 (Khanun)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 15 October 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 15 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°40′ (20.7°)
E111°50′ (111.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 440 km (240 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°20′ (20.3°)
E109°40′ (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N19°25′ (19.4°)
E108°20′ (108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 October>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E107°50′ (107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement S 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 October>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°20′ (15.3°)
E107°30′ (107.5°)
Direction and speed of movement S Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

PAGASA-DOST

@dost_pagasa

Official Twitter Account of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA-DOST)

Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 1

For: Typhoon “Khanun” (1720) (formerly “Odette”)
Issued at: 11:00 AM, 15 October 2017

At 10:00 AM today

Location of center: 795 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (20.1ºN, 114.4ºE) [OUTSIDE PAR]

Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 km/h near the center

Gustiness: up to 145 km/h

Forecast movement: West at 20 km/h

This tropical cyclone outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has no direct effect on any part of the country. Furthermore, this weather system is expected to make landfall over Southern China in the next 24 hours.

The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast to be issued at 4:00 PM today and at 4:00 AM tomorrow.

NOAA

 rb_lalo-animated16

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2017 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KHANUN is currently located near 21.0 N 111.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KHANUN is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KHANUN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Macau
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201724w3

201724w_03

MARITIME/SHIPPING

As of today, there is no Tropical Cyclone within Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

 JMA logo

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1720 KHANUN (1720) 950 HPA
AT 20.7N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 20.3N 109.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 19.4N 108.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 16.9N 107.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 15.3N 107.5E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
17101521

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

United States: Tropical Depression NATE 08/1500Z nr 33.1N 87.3W, moving NNE 24mph/21kt 996mb NHC FL – Updated 08 Oct 2017 1800z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression NATE

HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER- NHC

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

National Hurricane Center (FL)

095409_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

095409_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

095409wpcqpf_sm1

 

rb_lalo-animated4

natloop_small

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

…HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…33.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39
km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Nate’s center will continue to move inland across the Deep
South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through
Monday.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate
is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the
the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through
this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the
northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from
the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and
northern Georgia into the western Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Jackson, MS Threats and Impacts 451 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA Threats and Impacts 722 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Atlanta, GA Threats and Impacts 1108 AM EDT Sun Oct 8
Tallahassee, FL Threats and Impacts 1117 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 /1017 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Huntsville, AL Threats and Impacts 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Birmingham, AL Threats and Impacts 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 8
Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL Threats and Impacts 1029 AM CDT Sun Oct 8

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Oct, 2017 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression NATE is currently located near 33.1 N 87.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). NATE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201716n4

201716n_04

Other

 

at201716_5day4

at201716_sat4

 

 

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Southwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Nate May Hit Mexico and U.S. Gulf Coast as a Strengthening Hurricane

Strengthening Nate Heads into the Gulf and Toward a Saturday Night Landfall

Nate Sweeps Across U.S. Gulf Coast

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTNT21 KNHC 081448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Is La Niña on the way? – Reblogged from UK Met Office (05 Oct 2017)

During 2015 and 2016, the planet experienced one of the largest El Niño events in a century. El Niño (Spanish for the boy) is actually the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and climate scientists are now suggesting that this oscillation in tropical Pacific temperature is likely tipping towards its opposite cool phase, La […]

via Is La Niña on the way? — Official blog of the Met Office news team