South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Victor 07P: 152100Z POSITION nr 14.6S 166.4W, moving W at 02 knots (JTWC) – Published 15 Jan 2016 2145Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Victor 07P

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET

sp201607_5day 15

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast
sp201607_sat_anim 15
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RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 72 issued 1924 UTC Friday 15 January 2016 

65660 15


Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm January 15 2 14.7S 166.3W 110
+6hr 12 am January 16 2 14.8S 166.5W 140
+12hr 6 am January 16 2 15.0S 166.6W 165
+18hr 12 pm January 16 2 15.2S 166.7W 195
+24hr 6 pm January 16 3 15.6S 166.7W 220
+36hr 6 am January 17 3 16.6S 166.8W 280
+48hr 6 pm January 17 3 17.8S 166.6W 345
+60hr 6 am January 18 3 18.9S 166.2W 430
+72hr 6 pm January 18 3 19.9S 165.8W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa


The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 152005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.0S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 166.7W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 166.8W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.8S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Victor) Warning #03
Issued at 15/2100Z

sh0716 15

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151800Z — NEAR 14.6S 166.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 166.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 14.8S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 15.1S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 15.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 16.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 19.4S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 20.6S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 21.2S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATION OF
BANDING, DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING TC 07P THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES WILL REMAIN POSITIVE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH
AND WILL ENHANCEMENT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE LLCC
AND IS CREATING AMPLE OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS DIVERGENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE 96 TO 120 TIMEFRAME. AS SSTS AND OHC DECREASE
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS, BEYOND TAU 96, THE OVERALL INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TC 07P HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, CAUSING A SOUTHWARD TURN WITH MARGINAL
ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 72. A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF
TC VICTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
LEADING TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK HAS
BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 072 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 151938 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7 SOUTH 166.8 WEST AT 151800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 160000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.0S 166.6W AT 160600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.6S 166.7W AT 161800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 070.

METAREA14 / STORM_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 2100

WTPS11 NFFN 152100
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 152005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.0S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 166.7W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 166.8W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.8S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone (CAT3 SS) ULA 06P: 102100Z POSITION nr 22.6S 170, moving SSW 8 knots (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jan 2016 2155z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA (06P)

(= CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET

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Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

 

Image: @wunderground Satellite NOT AVAILABLE

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RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 48 issued 1931 UTC Sunday 10 January 2016

65660 10

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm January 10 4 22.0S 170.1E 35
+6hr 12 am January 11 4 23.0S 169.9E 65
+12hr 6 am January 11 3 24.1S 170.1E 95
+18hr 12 pm January 11 3 25.3S 170.4E 120
+24hr 6 pm January 11 3 26.5S 171.1E 150
+36hr 6 am January 12 3 29.0S 173.1E 210
+48hr 6 pm January 12 2 31.2S 175.9E 270
+60hr 6 am January 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 6 pm January 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A46 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 101954 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.0S 170.1E AT 101800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
WEST SEMICIRCLE.

EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT WITH SLIGHT WARMING IN CLOUD TOPS PAST 6 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE IN LG SURROUND DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 24.1S 170.1E MOV S AT 12KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.5S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 12KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110200 UTC.

 

vms_banner_bg_14

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 14 for Anietyum Island, TAFEA province.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 14 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:08am VUT Monday 11 January 2016 for
Anietyum Island, TAFEA province.

At 5:00am local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (941 hPa) Category 4 was
located at 22.0 degrees South 170.0 degrees East. The Severe Tropical Cyclone
is positioned at the top right corner of square letter I, number 12 (I,12)
of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This is about 200 KM
south of Aneityum and 285 KM south southeast of Tanna.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula has moved in a south southwest direction at
14 KM/HR in the past 3 hours.

Winds close to the center are estimated at 165 KM/HR.
Expected position of the system in the next 6 hours will be near
23.7 degrees South 170.1 degrees East.

Strong force winds of 45 to 55 KM/HR will continue to affect
Anietyum island today and slowly decreasing as Tropical cyclone
Ula continues a southward movement away from Vanuatu Area.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 22.8S, 169.8E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 23.7S, 170.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 24.6S, 170.3E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 12 Jan) 25.7S, 171.0E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 12 Jan) 27.6S, 172.6E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 13 Jan) 29.1S, 174.7E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)

Seas will remain rough to very rough over southern waters with
heavy swells expected.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) has given ALL CLEAR
for TAFEA province.

This will be the final information on Severe Tropical Cyclone ULA unless the
systems turns back.

This warning is also available on VMGD’s website http://www.meteo.gov.vu
Bislama Translation

Tropikol Saeklon Woning Namba 14 lo Sevea Tropikol Saeklon Ula we i kamaot
lo Vanuatu Meteorology mo Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila lo
6:08am VUT Monday 11 January 2016.

Lo 5:00am lokal taem, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (941 hPa) Category 4 hemi
stap lo 22.0 degrees South 170.0 degrees East. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula
oli loketem kolosap lo top kona blo skwea leta I, namba 12 (I,12) insaed lo
Vanuatu Tropikol saeklon Traking Map. Hemia, hemi stap 200 KM south
blo Aneityum mo 285 KM south southeast blo Tanna. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula
i bin muv lo south southwest dareksen lo wan spid blo 14 KM/HR lo las 3 aoa we i pas.

Presa lo medel blo saeklon ia hemi kolosap lo 941 hPa. Pawa blo win kolosap
lo senta hemi 165 KM/HR. Sevea Tropikol saeklon Ula bai i muv i go lo
23.7 degrees South 170.1 degrees East lo nekis 06 kasem 12 aoa.

Ol win we pawa blo ol i save kasem 45 igo kasem 55KM/HR oli expekted blo stap
afektem Anietyum aelan mo slo slo bai i stap ko daon taem Tropikol saeklon
Ula i kontinu blo muv aot lo eria blo Vanuatu.

Fokas Posisen
Dei mo taem Posisen Pawa
+06 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 22.8S, 169.8E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 23.7S, 170.1E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 24.6S, 170.3E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 12 Jan) 25.7S, 171.0E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 12 Jan) 27.6S, 172.6E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 13 Jan) 29.1S, 174.7E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)

Solwora bai i raf tumas iet wetem ol bigfala swel i expekted blo afektem sol
wota blo saot.

Vanuatu Nasonal Disasta Manejmen Ofis hemi stap givim ALL CLEAR lo ol people
blo TAFEA.

Bae i no mo kat narafala woning we ba i kamaot.

Ol woning ia you save kasem lo website blo VMGD www.meteo.gov.vu

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) Warning #24
Issued at 10/2100Z

sh0616 10

 

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101800Z — NEAR 22.1S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 170.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 26.7S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 29.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 30.8S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 33.1S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT
HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE
TO INCREASED NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS NEARLY LOST ITS EYE FEATURE AND CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE
CORE HAVE WARMED. A 101525Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE; HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AN
ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BASED ON DECLINING
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE
WEAKENING SEEN IN ALL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06P IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN AXIS OF
THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS THE
CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE,
ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING TREND. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jan, 2016 6:00 GMT

Very Intense TC ULA is currently located near 20.5 S 170.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 115 kts (132 mph). ULA is a category category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. ULA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201606P 10a

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 047 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 101900 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0 SOUTH 170.1
EAST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 22.0S 170.1E at 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 85 KNOTS
BY 110600UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN EAST
SEMICIRLCE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.1S 170.1E AT 110600 UTC
AND NEAR 26.5S 171.1E AT 111800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 046

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Tsunami in Solomon Islands after mag 8.0 Earthquake nr Santa Cruz Islands, 9 dead, several missing. 100 homes damaged or destroyed – 070213 1540z

A tsunami has struck the eastern Solomon Islands after a powerful earthquake that briefly triggered warnings for several South Pacific nations.

The magnitude 8.0 quake near the Santa Cruz Islands is reported to have destroyed at least three villages. Officials in the Solomon Islands say there may be casualties.

The U.S. Geological Survey says a tsunami measuring 0.9 meters hit the town of Lata in the Santa Cruz Island chain in the eastern part of the Solomon Islands.

Officials say the wave swept half a kilometer inland, destroying homes and sending panicked residents fleeing to higher ground.

Solomon Islands Police Commissioner John Lansley says authorities are trying to establish how much damage the tsunami has caused.

“We believe that three, possibly four villages have been affected,” said Lansley.

“The severity we are not clear about and I do not want to speculate, but we are doing our utmost to establish a little bit more information about the effects of the surge wave. We also are not clear
on casualties, although we believe there may be casualties.”

Wednesday, 06 February, 2013 at 10:50 UTC RSOE

Update 07 Feb 2013:

Aid workers struggled to reach remote, tsunami-ravaged villages in the Solomon Islands on Thursday, as the death toll rose with more bodies found in wrecked homes and debris in the South Pacific island chain.

At least nine people, including a child, were killed when a powerful earthquake set off a small tsunami that sent 4 foot, 11-inch waves roaring inland on Santa Cruz Island, in the eastern Solomons, on Wednesday.

Around 100 homes across five villages were damaged or destroyed. The waves proved deadly for five elderly villagers and a child who weren’t fast enough to outrun the rushing water, said George Herming, a spokesman for the prime minister. Three more bodies were found Thursday, but Herming said details of how those victims died were not immediately available.

Several others are missing and dozens of strong aftershocks were keeping frightened villagers from returning to the coast, Herming said. “People are still scared of going back to their homes because there’s nothing left, so they are residing in temporary shelters on higher ground,” Herming said. The tsunami was generated by an 8.0-magnitude earthquake that struck near the town of Lata, on Santa Cruz in Temotu, the easternmost province in the Solomons. Disaster officials were en route to the isolated area Thursday after the local airport, which was flooded by the tsunami, was finally cleared of debris.

Thursday, 07 February, 2013 at 09:11 UTC RSOE

News Reports:

Quake off Solomon Islands triggers deadly tsunami

BBC NEWS 6 February 2013 Last updated at 09:23

Map locator

Homes were damaged and at least five people have been reported dead after a tsunami triggered by an undersea earthquake hit the Solomon Islands.

The quake, with a magnitude 8.0, struck at 01:12 GMT near the Santa Cruz islands, the US Geological Survey said.

A tsunami measuring 0.9m (3ft) then hit Lata on eastern Santa Cruz island, swamping the island’s airport.

A tsunami warning was triggered for several Pacific nations, but was cancelled about two hours later.

Lata is the main town on Santa Cruz, also known as Nendo. It is the largest island in the Santa Cruz island chain, part of the Solomon Islands nation.

The worst of the damage was said to have been on the western coast of Santa Cruz, with one report putting the waves there at 1.5m.

Medical staff at Lata hospital said five people had been killed – four elderly people and one young boy.

But director of nursing Augustine Pilve told New Zealand television that number could rise.

“It’s more likely that other villages along the coast of Santa Cruz may be affected,” he said.

Robert Iroga, press secretary to the Solomons prime minister, told the BBC that the waves west of Lata had travelled some 500m inland, and that three villages had been damaged.

Many of the homes in the area were semi-permanent, he said, and were reported to have been flattened.

Police were travelling to the area, he said, and the priority was to ensure the local airport is functioning so aid and supplies can be flown in.

Another government spokesman, George Herming, said reports suggested that between 60 to 70 homes have been damaged in four villages on Santa Cruz Islands.

“At this stage, authorities are still trying to establish the exact number and extent of damage,” he told AFP, adding that communications with the islands was difficult because of their remoteness.

House in Solomon Islands (file image) Officials said many of the “semi-permanent” houses in the area may have been flattened

‘No threat’

Initial reports by the USGS said the quake had a shallow depth of 5.8km (3.6 miles) but it later revised the figure to 28.7km (17.8 miles).

Luke Taula, a fisheries officer in Lata, told Reuters news agency the wave came as several small tidal surges.

“We have small waves come in, then go out again, then come back in. The waves have reached the airport terminal,” he told the news agency.

Tsunami warnings were issued for the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, New Caledonia, Kosrae, Fiji, Kiribati, and Wallis and Futuna islands.

But they were later cancelled. by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, which warned that some coastal areas may still experience small changes in sea level.

The Solomon Islands form part of the Ring Of Fire, a zone of volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches encircling the Pacific basin.

The 8.0 earthquake was followed by several aftershocks, the largest measuring 6.6 magnitude.

The region has been experiencing a series of smaller quakes in recent days.

In 2007 an 8.1 magnitude earthquake triggered a tsunami that killed at least 52 people in the Solomons and left thousands homeless.” – BBC News

YELLOW ALERT FOR CAT 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE Vanuatu & Fiji – Updated

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Apr, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DAPHNE (18P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vanuatu
probability for TS is 70% currently
Fiji
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Network 10’s Australian Journalist & Meteorologist @Magdalena_Roze:

Tropical Cyclone #Daphne now cat 1 approx 500km SW of Fiji. Predicted to move SE, intensifying into cat 2 early Tues

Tropical cyclone Daphne expected to hit Fiji from about 6pm on Monday and will pass 500km south-west of the country, bringing more rain and strong winds – Radio New Zealand

“Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” as it heads ever dangerously closer to Western Fiji Island.  Already, the government officials in Capital Suva, has ordered massive evacuations of more than 7,000 of its citizens in Nadi, which is the Westernmost edge of the Island territory as torrential rains already caused flooding and could pose more threat to life and property.


 Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” was located to be at 19.2S-171.2E, or 663.5 km East-southeast of Nadi, Fiji at 2332Z (0732AM-PHL), with sustained wind reaching 65 km/hr (35 kt) and gusting near 93 km/hr (50 kt), with central pressure of 998 hPa, and currently traversing over warm waters, which should catapult it over a favourable “Ocean Heat Content” (OHC), but the “Shearing environment” could be an issue and considering that the system is tracking more South-southeastwards to generally Southward motion for the last 6 hrs.  We’ll see hot it deteriorates the system gradually as it negotiates on cooler waters in the days to come.

Fig. 2.0 “Powerful Tropical Cyclone 18P/DAPHNE barreling through populated South Pacific Islands of Vanuatu and Fiji as shown in this Vis Sat Imagery.  Image Credit: FNMOC/Navy.”

The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA) has issued warnings in consideration that the storm system could generate “Treacherous sea conditions,” as the cyclonic weather gets closer to Fiji Island later today.  Meteorologists in the agency also warned the coastal communities to be on alert for high surf conditions in the approach of the tempest and let it past.

Fig. 3.0 “An MLSP analysis of Tropical Cyclone 18P/DAPHNE as it dips South to South-southeastwards, could skirt through New Zealand’s North Island come Wednesday, 04 March 2012.  Image Credit: CIRA.”

The government in Suva also ordered its citizens to stay clear along the Western and Southern side of the Island territory and move to higher ground as rising sea levels whipped by Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” could endanger the coastal infrastructure.  “Storm Surges” are generated by these tropical systems and quite often if not mostly, this phenomena cause most deaths in a storm.http://www.theboplive.net