Marianas/ Guam/ Micronesia: Tropical Depression ThirtyOne 31W 211500Z position near 8.5N 157.2E, moving W at 12kt (JTWC) – Published 21 Oct 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression THIRTYONE 31W

Expected to become a Tropical Storm by 22 Oct, 0:00 UTC  and eventually intensify  to a storm equiv to a CAT4 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by  25 Oct, 12:00 UTC (TSR)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 9 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Depression 31W (Thirtyone) Warning #01
Issued at 21/1500Z

wp3118

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202121ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 8.4N 157.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 157.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 8.9N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 9.8N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 11.0N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 12.1N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 14.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 16.2N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 18.8N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 157.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 31W (THIRTYONE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 812 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 202130).//
NNNN

000
WWMY80 PGUM 202330
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
930 AM ChST Sun Oct 21 2018

GUZ001>004-220000-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
930 AM ChST Sun Oct 21 2018

…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD IMPACT THE MARIANAS BY MIDWEEK…

A tropical disturbance is currently located just northwest of
Kosrae, near 8N160E or about

1080 miles east-southeast of Saipan
1087 miles east-southeast of Tinian
1085 miles east-southeast of Rota
1100 miles east-southeast of Guam
1180 miles southeast of Pagan

The disturbance is the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It is moving slowly westward
and is expected to strengthen as it approaches the Marianas early
this week.

There is considerable uncertainty as to the exact track and strength
of the system. Current computer model data indicate that the center
of the system could track anywhere from near Guam to north of Saipan
and some models indicate that it may even pass east of the Mariana
Islands.

Residents of Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands
should keep informed of the latest forecasts and statements from the
National Weather Service and your local emergency management office.
The latest weather forecasts and advisories are available on the WFO
Guam website at WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/

$$

Ziobro/Guard

TD
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 21 October 2018

Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N8°30′ (8.5°)
E158°05′ (158.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°55′ (9.9°)
E154°25′ (154.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 21 Oct, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression THIRTYONE is currently located near 8.4 N 157.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 25kts (29 mph). THIRTYONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Northern Mariana Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Guam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 38N 161E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 161E TO 38N 167E 37N 175E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 161E TO 31N 153E 26N 146E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 08.5N 158.1E MARSHALLS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 09.9N 154.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 145E 42N 143E
47N 152E 50N 155E 50N 165E 46N 165E 45N 180E 34N 180E 34N 160E 40N
160E 40N 145E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 52N 152E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 40N 134E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 41N 179E ESE 25 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 37N 175E TO 36N 178E 36N 180E.
REMARKS.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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http://www.passageweather.com/

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Atlantic Ocean/ UK: Post Tropical Cyclone Helene 16/1500Z 43.8N 25.7W, moving N 25 kt 989mb (NHC)- Updated 16 Sep 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone HELENE/ Storm Helene (UK)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

United Kingdom

Pressure UK 16

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for ‘North East England’, ‘North West England’, ‘Northern Ireland’, ‘South West England’, ‘Strathclyde’, ‘SW Scotland, Lothian Borders’, ‘Wales’, ‘Yorkshire & Humber’

Updated 16 September at 0926 BST

Valid from 1800 BST on Mon 17 September to 0800 BST on Tue 18 September

Storm Helene will bring a spell of strong winds to western parts of the UK in particular late Monday and early Tuesday.

– Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport expected.

– Some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer.

– Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges.

– Some short term loss of power and other services.

– Coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves.

– Some damage to trees is possible, for example large branches or trees falling in a few places.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 161441
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

FQNT21 EGRR 160800
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2018
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER UNTIL 0800
UTC ON MONDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2018

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE
THROUGHOUT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH VIOLENT
STORM FORCE 11 IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 50 MILES
OF THE CENTRE BETWEEN 161800UTC AND 170800UTC. LOW 58
NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01 WEST 984 BY SAME
TIME. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORM FORCE
10 AT TIMES AROUND 50 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM 162200UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. LOW 58 NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01
WEST 984 BY SAME TIME. LOW 61 NORTH 26 WEST 980 EXPECTED
63 NORTH 20 WEST 984 BY THAT TIME. AT 160000UTC, LOW 53
NORTH 38 WEST 1003 EXPECTED 54 NORTH 23 WEST 1001 BY
170000UTC
AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

SOLE
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 AT FIRST EXCEPT IN WEST, OTHERWISE
VARIABLE 4, BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5,
INCREASING 6 TO GALE 8 LATER IN WEST. SLIGHT OR MODERATE,
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT FIRST, FOG PATCHES
DEVELOPING. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

SHANNON ROCKALL
WEST BACKING SOUTH 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH IN ROCKALL.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

BAILEY FAEROES
CYCLONIC, BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST, 5 TO 7, INCREASING
GALE 8 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SQUALLY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

SOUTHEAST ICELAND
SOUTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8 AT FIRST IN NORTHEAST,
OTHERWISE WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR THUNDERY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

EAST NORTHERN SECTION
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES, DECREASING 4
AT TIMES LATER, THEN BECOMING CYCLONIC 4 OR 5,
OCCASIONALLY 6 LATER IN FAR SOUTHEAST. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST OF ICELAND. RAIN
OR SHOWERS, THUNDERY AT TIMES IN NORTH. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR IN NORTH

WEST NORTHERN SECTION
IN NORTHEAST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTH. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHEAST, WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
DECREASING MAINLY 3 OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY
VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR EAST. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT
FIRST, OTHERWISE SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHWEST, NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING VARIABLE 3
OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH. SHOWERS. GOOD.
IN NORTHWEST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 3 OR 4 IN FAR
WEST, OTHERWISE 5 TO 7, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8 LATER IN FAR
NORTH. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH LATER.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

EAST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY, BECOMING CYCLONIC,
4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 EXCEPT IN FAR SOUTHWEST,
OTHERWISE CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 TO STORM 10
FOR A TIME, OCCASIONALLY VIOLENT STORM 11 LATER IN FAR
SOUTHEAST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH OR HIGH
IN FAR SOUTH, OCCASIONALLY VERY HIGH LATER IN SOUTHEAST.
FOG PATCHES AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTH, OTHERWISE RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR AT FIRST

WEST CENTRAL SECTION
IN SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY BACKING NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 IN
FAR SOUTHEAST AT FIRST, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8, OTHERWISE
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES,
OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE 3 OR 4 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTHEAST. RAIN
AT TIMES, SHOWERS LATER IN FAR WEST. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN NORTH, CYCLONIC 5 OR 6, BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

DENMARK STRAIT
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES. SLIGHT
OR MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH IN FAR SOUTH. SLEET OR SNOW
AT TIMES. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES NEAR GRENLAND COAST,
OTHERWISE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8,
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN EAST. MODERATE AT TIMES
NEAR COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN EAST. OCCASIONAL SNOW NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE RAIN AT TIMES. MODERATE OR
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR, BUT VERY POOR AT TIMES NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND

NORTH ICELAND
IN NORTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTHWEST,
OTHERWISE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6
AT TIMES. SLIGHT OR MODERATE. SLEET OR SNOW AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR

NORWEGIAN BASIN
VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT FIRST IN EAST, OTHERWISE SOUTHEASTERLY
5 TO 7, BECOMING CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8, INCREASING SEVERE
GALE 9 OR STORM 10 FOR A TIME. MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH
OR VERY ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN FAR NORTH. RAIN
FOR A TIME, SHOWERS LATER. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY
POOR

OUTLOOK FOR FOLLOWING 24 HOURS:
STORMS EXPECTED IN SOLE, SHANNON, EAST CENTRAL SECTION
AND NORWEGIAN BASIN. GALES OR SEVERE GALES EXPECTED IN
EAST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST
CENTRAL SECTION, DENMARK STRAIT AND NORTH ICELAND
UNSCHEDULED STORM WARNINGS ARE BROADCAST VIA SAFETYNET
AND IN
BULLETIN WONT54 EGRR AVAILABLE VIA SOME INTERNET AND
FTPMAIL
OUTLETS=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Depression Florence 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W, moving W 10mph/ ~8.69 kt 1002mb (NHC/NWS) – Updated 16 Sep 2018 1600Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Florence

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

811
WTNT31 KWNH 161511
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 69
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

…FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…34.0N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina…northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 81.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the day on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Southeastern…Central and western North Carolina…far northern
South Carolina into far southwest Virginia…

Southeastern North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina:

Additional 3 to 6 inches of rain…with isolated maximum of 8
inches possible…with storm total accumulations of 30 to
40 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Central and Western North Carolina…far northern South Carolina and
far southwest Virginia:

Additional 5 to 10 inches of rain, with storm total accumulations of
15 to 20 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce flash
flooding and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

West-central Virginia:

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across southeast North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Oravec

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 35.3N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 39.7N 80.5W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 40.7N 76.1W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 42.3N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 46.1N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Wilmington, NC Local Tropical Website 508 AM EDT Sun Sep 16

 

Other

 

Category 2 Florence Nears Landfall in North Carolina; Catastrophic Flooding Expected

Dr. Jeff Masters

In Florence’s Grip, No Relief for North Carolina

Bob Henson

Dire Flood Threat for the Carolinas as Florence’s Record Rains Continue

Bob Henson

Florence’s Flood Threat Expands Inland

Bob Henson

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 160852 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1000 MB

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 81.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLORENCE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON FLORENCE CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING
AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China / HongKong/ Macau/ Vietnam/ Philippines: Typhoon Mangkhut (26W) 161500Z 22.3N 111.0E, moving WNW 17kt (JTWC) – Updated 16 Sep 2019 1455Z (GMT/UTC)

Typhoon Mangkhut (26W)

MANGKHUT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Mangkhut forecast to move west by north direction at the speed of 30 km/h and is predicted to make landfall in coastal areas from Zhuhai to Wuchuan, Guangdong, around afternoon to the night of September 16 – CMA

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 26W (Mangkhut) Warning #39 Final Warning
Issued at 16/1500Z

wp2618

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 22.1N 111.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 111.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 23.0N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.9N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.9N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 25.8N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 111.0E.
TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM WEST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STILL EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR ITS CENTER, WHICH IS NOW OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161100Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM YANGJIANG, 21 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST, READING 17 KTS AND 971 MB.
WITHOUT TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS, 971 MB WOULD SUPPORT A
69 KT SUSTAINED WINDSPEED. TY 26W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING IT TO
SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION WHILE IT TRACKS OVER LAND. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 26W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND IN
SOUTHERN CHINA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 24, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND HWRF RECURVING THE WEAKENING CYCLONE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AROUND THE STR AXIS, AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS CONTINUING
THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND CALLS FOR 26W TO DISSIPATE AFTER
TAU 36. BASED ON INCREASING TRACK UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 24,
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 24 AND
FAIR AFTERWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

 

JMA logo1822-00 M16 JMA TRACK

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 16 September 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 16 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°10′ (22.2°)
E111°35′ (111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 700 km (375 NM)
W 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N23°05′ (23.1°)
E108°35′ (108.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°55′ (23.9°)
E106°10′ (106.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY #4 – FINAL
FOR: TYPHOON “MANGKHUT” (FORMERLY “OMPONG”)

 

Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 September 2018
Typhoon “MANGKHUT” (formerly “Ompong”) maintains its strength as it moves closer to Southern China.
Location of Center
(10:00 AM today)
The eye of Typhoon “MANGKHUT” was estimated based on all available data at 705 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR)(21.1°N,115.0°E)    Track
Maximum Sustained Winds 145 km/h near the center
Gustiness Up to 180 km/h
Movement Northwest at 30 km/h
Forecast Positions and Intensities
Tomorrow Morning
17 September 2018
1,315 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR) (22.4°N, 109.3°E)
Tropical Storm
Tuesday Morning
18 September 2018
1,835 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR) (24.1°N, 104.5°E) 
Tropical Depression
  • This typhoon no longer has a direct threat in any part of the country.
With this development, this is the final advisory for this disturbance.  The next update on this weather disturbance will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast at 4 PM today.

PH Emergency Numbers.jpg

HONG KONG

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45 (HkT)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the southeast quarter.

At 10 p.m., Typhoon Mangkhut was centred about 310 kilometres west of Hong Kong (near 22.1 degrees north 111.2 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 30 kilometres per hour into the inland area of southern China and weaken gradually.

With Mangkhut departing, local winds are weakening gradually. However, many places are still being affected by gale or storm force winds. The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal will remain in force for a period of time. Precautions should not yet be relaxed.

Rainbands of Mangkhut will still bring heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Sea will be high with swells. It is expected that Mangkhut will weaken over inland areas of South China, local winds will moderate further on Monday.

Mangkhut today brought different degrees of damages to Hong Kong. There may be hidden danger. Members of the public should remain on the alert for assurance of personal safety.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Cheung Chau, Sha Chau and Sai Kung were 96, 94 and 74 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts 121, 117 and 91 kilometres per hour respectively.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 18:50

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 6:50 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

topbanner

Red Warning of Typhoon

16-09-2018Source:National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center continued to issue red warning of typhoon at 6:00 a.m. on September 16. This year’s 22th typhoon Mangkhut, (super typhoon scale), was centered over 420 km south of Taishan city, Guangdong at 5:00 a.m. this morning. China Sea (48m/s). The maximum wind intensity registered scale 15. The minimum air pressure registered 940 hPa. It is forecast to move west by north direction at the speed of 30 km/h and is predicted to make landfall in coastal areas from Zhuhai to Wuchuan, Guangdong, around afternoon to the night of September 16.

From September 16 to 17, central-northern South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, Bashi Channel, Taiwan Island, Qiongzhou Strait, coastal Fujian, coastal Guangdong, Pearl River Estuary, eastern Hainan Island, eastern Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Macao will be exposed to scale 7-10 gale. Heavy rain to rainstorm will batter Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, southeastern Fujian, most portions of Guangxi, Hainan Island, southeastern Taiwan Island. (Sep. 16)

Editor: Liu Shuqiao

NCHMF VIETNAM

TYPHOON WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Sunday, September 16, 2018 22 111.6 TY 133 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

19 Monday, September 17, 2018 23.4 106 td 46 km/hour
19 Tuesday, September 18, 2018 24 100.5 Low 28 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 PM Sunday, September 16, 2018
TC TRACKS

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Sep, 2018 6:00 GMT

 

Typhoon MANGKHUT is currently located near 21.6 N 113.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). MANGKHUT is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MANGKHUT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hong Kong
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Guiyang (26.6 N, 106.7 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1822 MANGKHUT (1822) 970 HPA
AT 22.2N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 23.1N 108.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 23.9N 106.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
PHILIPPINES

WTPH20 RPMM 151200
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 14 FINAL
TYPHOON MANGKHUT (1822)
ANALYSIS 151200UTC
PSTN 19.2N 118.4E
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 80KT
64KT 030NM NE 030NM SE 030NM SW 030NM NW
50KT 100NM NE 080NM SE 080NM SW 100NM NW
30KT 230NM NE 200NM SE 200NM SW 230NM NW
FORECAST 24H 161200UTC
PSTN 21.7N 112.0E
CATE TYPHOON
FORECAST 48H 171200UTC
PSTN 23.2N 106.2E
CATE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
FINAL WARNING
PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND
ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION=
HONG KONG

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 16/Sep/2018
Tropical Cyclone Warning

Severe Typhoon Mangkhut (1822) has weakened into a Typhoon with central pressure 960 hectopascals. At 161200 UTC, it was centred within 60 nautical miles of two two point zero degrees north (22.0 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 16 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 80 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 270 nautical miles over eastern semicircle, 225 nautical miles elsewhere.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 330 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 171200 UTC
Two three point seven degrees north (23.7 N)
One zero six point zero degrees east (106.0 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 181200 UTC
Dissipated over land.
CHINA

WWCI50 BABJ 160000
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC SEP.16 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC SEP.16=
FCST VALID 0000UTC SEP.17=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
STY MANGKHUT 1822(1822) 940HPA AT 20.6N 115.6E
MVG WNW 35KMH AND MAX WINDS 50M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
500KM NE
450KM SE
400KM SW
350KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
200KM NE
250KM SE
180KM SW
120KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
60KM NE
80KM SE
80KM SW
60KM NW
AND FCST FOR 170000UTC AT 23.0N 108.9E 995HPA
AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NE/E WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 24M/S SEAS UP TO
4.0M OVER SOUTHWESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND TAIWAN STRAIT=
WINDS FROM 26 TO 38M/S GUSTS 40 TO 48M/S SEAS UP
TO 10.0M OVER NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
WINDS FROM 18 TO 22M/S GUSTS 25 TO 30M/S SEAS UP
TO 6.0M OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW/W WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVE ANDAMAN
SEA AND MALACCA STRAIT AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND SEA SOUTH OF
JAWA AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
NE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN
VIS MOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 04 TO 07M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
TAIWAN STRAIT
SE WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH HVY RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MOD TO GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BEIBU GULF
NW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SW
WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG RAINSTORM VIS GOOD TO POOR=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S BACK SW
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
RAINSTORM VIS POOR=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 32 TO 41M/S GUSTS 37 TO 46M/S BACK S
WINDS 25 TO 32M/S GUSTS 29 TO 36M/S SEA STATE
HIGH TO VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS
POOR TO MOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 32 TO 41M/S GUSTS 37 TO 46M/S BACK SE
WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE
VERY HIGH TO VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG LIGHT
RAIN VIS POOR TO MOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS BACK S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS BACK S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
W WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO
12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
SE WINDS BACK NE 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS
E WINDS 04 TO 07M/S INCR 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO
12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK NE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
NE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S VEER E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA
STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
MALACCA STRAIT
W WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S VEER SW
WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD
TO ROUGH HVY RAIN VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Johnston Island/ Hawaii/ Central Pacific/ HURRICANE HECTOR CAT3 10E 09/1500Z 16.6N 160.1W, moving W ~14.03kt 957mb (CPHC) – Updated 09 Aug 2018 1820Z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE HECTOR 10E

Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

……MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON

JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK…….CPHC

*A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Johnston Island – CPHC

**FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF HECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY** – NWS HI

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Hector – CPHC

 

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

ep102018_3day_cone_no_line_37

 

 

WTPA31 PHFO 091452
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 09 2018

…MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST FAR SOUTH
OF KAUAI…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON JOHNSTON ISLAND
LATER THIS WEEK…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.6N 160.1W
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 620 MI…1000 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for…
* Johnston Island

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
*A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Johnston Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible
within the next 48 hours.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway
and Kure Atolls and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
west of Pearl/Hermes, should monitor the progress of Hector. This
does not include the main Hawaiian Islands.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 160.1 West. Hector is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through today. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest is expected from tonight through late Friday. Note
that on the forecast path, the center of Hector is expected to pass
to the north of Johnston Island late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast
through Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Hector should begin to impact Johnston
Island tonight. This will likely produce large and dangerous waves
along portions of the island from late tonight through Friday
night.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston

Links:

Hawaii Emergency Management Agency
City and County of Honolulu Department of Emergency Management
Kauai Emergency Management
Maui County Emergency Management
Hawaii County Civil Defense

NWS Forecast Office Honolulu, HI

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

Other

Subtropical Storm Debby Forms; Cat 4 Hector Poised to Graze Hawaii

Dr. Jeff Masters August 7, 2018, 2:34 PM EDT

Dr. Jeff Masters co-founded Weather Underground in 1995, and flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

HURRICANE WARNING

Offshore Waters Forecast for Hawaii
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
528 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240
nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height
of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than
twice the significant wave height.

PHZ180-092215-
Hawaiian Offshore Waters-
528 AM HST Thu Aug 9 2018

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…Hurricane conditions expected far SW waters early. Seas
10 to 20 ft. Elsewhere, E to SE winds 10 to 20 kt and seas 7 to 10
ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft, highest SW.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY…E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

WTPA21 PHFO 091449 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102018
1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR…
. JOHNSTON ISLAND

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. JOHNSTON ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS… INCLUDING MIDWAY
AND KURE ATOLLS AND THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
WEST OF PEARL/HERMES…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HECTOR. THIS
DOES NOT INCLUDE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 160.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 150SW 190NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 160.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 159.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 162.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.2N 164.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Hong Kong/ China/ South China Sea: Tropical Depression 1816 09/1500Z 18.1°N 111.4°E, next 24hrs will move NNW at speed of 12km/h (~6.47kt) 998hPa (CMA) – Published 09 Aug 2018 1520Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 1816

Guangdong Hainan Island China Beware!

CMA CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

Typhoon Message
20180809 23:12

National Meteorological Center No.2396
Analysis Time: Aug. 09th 15 UTC
Name of TC: TD
Current Location: 18.1°N 111.4°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 15m/s(54km/h)
Central Pressure: 998hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs will moving NNW at speed of 12km/h

HongKong HKO logo

Tropical Depression
at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Position: 18.3 N, 111.9 E (about 500 km south-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 45 km/h
The tropical cyclone over the northern part of the South China Sea will move in the general direction towards the vicinity of the coast of western Guangdong to Hainan Island in the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 22:00 HKT 09 August 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
20:00 HKT 10 August 2018 20.3 N 111.5 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 11 August 2018 21.3 N 111.4 E Tropical Storm 65 km/h
20:00 HKT 12 August 2018 21.7 N 110.6 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 13 August 2018 22.1 N 108.8 E Tropical Depression 45 km/h
20:00 HKT 14 August 2018 21.8 N 106.2 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

In the past few hours, the movement of the tropical depression was rather slow and kept a distance from Hong Kong.

According to the present forecast track, the chance of issuing the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is not high before dawn on Friday. Members of the public should take note of the latest weather situation before departing home in the morning.

The outer rain bands of the tropical depression will affect the coast of Guangdong on Friday and Saturday. Locally, there will be squally showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be occasionally strong over offshore waters and on high ground.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 1 Signal)

1. Every precaution should be taken. Objects likely to be blown away should be secured or taken indoors. Check if all windows and doors can be securely locked.

2. Drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish. People in low-lying areas should take precautions against flooding.

3. Those who have duties during a tropical cyclone should now remain on call.

4. There may be swells, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline.

5. Listen to radio, watch TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory’s website and mobile app for the latest information on the tropical cyclone.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Tropical Cyclone Warning (HKO)

At 091200 UTC, the tropical depression over the northern part of South China Sea with central pressure 998 hectopascals was centred within 90 nautical miles of one eight point one degrees north (18.1 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move north-northwest at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 25 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 60 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 101200 UTC
Two zero point three degrees north (20.3 N)
One one one point five degrees east (111.5 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 111200 UTC
Two one point three degrees north (21.3 N)
One one one point four degrees east (111.4 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 121200 UTC
Two one point seven degrees north (21.7 N)
One one zero point six degrees east (110.6 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 131200 UTC
Two two point one degrees north (22.1 N)
One zero eight point eight degrees east (108.8 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 141200 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

WWHK82 VHHH 091200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) OVER NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA(SCS): NIL.
SYNOPSIS (091200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AT 091200UTC, TD WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA AND MAXIMUM
WINDS 25 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 90 NM OF 18.1N 111.9E AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNW AT ABOUT 6 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 101200UTC: 20.3N, 111.5E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SCS.
SWELL SW 3 M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE SCS.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(TS) WITHIN 210 NM FROM CENTRE OF TD.
SCATTERED SQ SH AND TS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE SCS AND SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Japan/ West Pacific: Severe Tropical Storm SHANSHAN (17W) 09/1200Z 37.9N 142.5E, moving NNE 11kt 985 hPa (JMA) – Updated 09 Aug 2018 1444Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm SHANSHAN (17W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

1813-005

 

JPwarn S9

STS 1813 (Shanshan)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 9 August 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 9 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N37°55′ (37.9°)
E142°30′ (142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N39°35′ (39.6°)
E146°30′ (146.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°00′ (41.0°)
E153°00′ (153.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 17W (Shanshan) Warning #27
Issued at 09/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
091200Z — NEAR 37.8N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 142.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 39.6N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 27 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 41.0N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 38.2N 143.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SHANSHAN is currently located near 37.4 N 141.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). SHANSHAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP22 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 985 HPA
AT 37.9N 142.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 39.6N 146.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 41.0N 153.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 091200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 141E
42N 143E 47N 153E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 41N 180E 35N 165E 40N
150E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 59N 163E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 51N 180E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1000 HPA NEAR 19N 112E NW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 11N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 33N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 46N 166E EAST 15 KT.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 51N 180E TO 52N 178W 53N 175W.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 175W TO 47N 176W 42N 180E 40N 177E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 143E TO 42N 149E 42N 155E 40N 162E 36N
169E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 985 HPA AT 37.9N 142.5E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1814 YAGI (1814) 994 HPA AT 20.9N 133.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JMA WILL DISCONTINUE ITS PROVISION OF WWJP25 AND WWJP26
BY THE YEAR 2020 IN FAVOR OF WWJP27 AND WWJP28,
WHICH ARE IMPROVED VERSIONS OF THE TWO COMMUNICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Storm ILEANA 11E 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W, moving NW ~19.97kt 1002mb (NHC FL) – Updated 07 Aug 2018 0935Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm ILEANA 11E

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

…ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…NHC

 

National Hurricane Center (FL US)

 

 

035
WTPZ31 KNHC 070553
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

…ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.0N 106.0W
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken further due to the
influence of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the
southwest, and the small cyclone should dissipate later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring within portions
of the warning area. However, tropical storm conditions will
rapidly diminish later this morning.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco…with isolated maximum amounts
of 5 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Aug, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ILEANA is currently located near 18.0 N 104.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). ILEANA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTPZ21 KNHC 070232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT……. 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

….
FORECASTER ROBERTS
FZPN02 KWBC 070557 PZB
HSFEPI
T 30N143W 28N147W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF
FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ 09N146W 08N167W 11N173W 10N177W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 159W…AND
180 NM N OF TROUGH W OF 158W.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 179W TO
174E…AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 170W ND 176W…AND FROM 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 165W AND 175W.

$$

.FORECASTER ALMANZA. HONOLULU HI.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

China/ East China Sea: Tropical Storm Jongdari 15W 02/0900Z 30.0N 126.3E, moving NW Slow 990hPa (JMA) – Updated 02 Aug 2018 1015Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Jongdari 15W

SHANGHAI – CHINA BEWARE!

 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. – JTWC

JMA logo

1812-00

TS 1812 (Jongdari)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 2 August 2018

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 2 August>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N30°00′ (30.0°)
E126°20′ (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 2 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N30°50′ (30.8°)
E123°25′ (123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 3 August>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°40′ (31.7°)
E120°40′ (120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N33°55′ (33.9°)
E116°00′ (116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

CMA logo China

Typhoon Message
20180802 17:21

National Meteorological Center No.2305
Analysis Time: Aug. 02th 09 UTC
Name of TC: JONGDARI
Num. of TC: 1812
Current Location: 29.7°N 126.1°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 23m/s(82.8km/h)
Central Pressure: 985hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 220km SE 150km SW 100km NW 100km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs JONGDARI will moving WNW at speed of 30km/h

 

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 15W (Jongdari) Warning #46 RELOCATED Relocated
Issued at 02/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

WTPN35 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING NR 046 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z — NEAR 29.3N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 006 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 126.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 30.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 31.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 32.9N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 126.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON MSI SHOWING EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
CENTER.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Aug, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression JONGDARI is currently located near 29.7 N 126.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). JONGDARI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

 

Other

DrR J02

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

seawarn

SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/seawarn/

 

WTJP21 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1812 JONGDARI (1812) 990 HPA
AT 29.3N 126.7E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 30.4N 123.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 31.4N 121.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 33.9N 116.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 020600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC AUG.02 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC AUG.02=
FCST VALID 0600UTC AUG.03=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS JONGDARI 1812(1812) 985HPA AT 29.2N 126.6E
MVG WNW 30KMH AND MAX WINDS 23M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 7.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
220KM NE
150KM SE
100KM SW
100KM NW
AND FCST FOR 030600UTC AT 31.2N 120.8E 992HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 12 TO 18M/S GUSTS 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER CENTRAL PART OF EAST CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 07 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 1.5M OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND
SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA AND LAUT SULAWESI=
FCST=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
CYCLONIC WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA
STATE ROUGH HVY RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
VIS MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS VEER W 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO ROUGH LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS
MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
W WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTHWEST OF THE PHILIPPINES
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD MOD RAIN
BECMG CLOUDY VIS MOD TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Kuril Islands/ Japan/ Russia/ North Pacific: Tropical Storm Wukong 14W 26/0900Z position nr 40.4N 153.5E, moving NNW 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 26 Jul 2018 0950Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Wukong 14W

Kuril Islands (Russia/Japan) Beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 25 FEET.- JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Storm 14W (Wukong) Warning #19
Issued at 26/0900Z

wp1418

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN34 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 39.7N 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.7N 153.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 42.5N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 45.4N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 40.4N 153.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z AND
270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI) WARNINGS
(WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1811-001

 

 

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TS 1811 (Wukong)
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 26 July 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 26 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N39°25′ (39.4°)
E154°00′ (154.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 560 km (300 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N42°00′ (42.0°)
E152°05′ (152.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 27 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N44°50′ (44.8°)
E152°25′ (152.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WWJP27 RJTD 260600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 47N 152E 57N 163E 60N 163E 60N 180E 37N 180E 40N 161E 37N
150E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 47N 137E ENE 10 KT.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 31N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 42N 174E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1812 JONGDARI (1812) 980 HPA AT 22.6N 139.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1811 WUKONG (1811) 996 HPA AT 39.4N 154.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Tropical Storm Ampil 12W 23/1300Z 36.6°N 117.6°E, moving N at speed of 20km/h 990hPa Inland (CMA) – Updated 23 Jul 2018 1410Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm AMPIL 12W

China beware!

CHINA

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723200000024

Typhoon Message
20180723 21:10

National Meteorological Center No.2175
Analysis Time: Jul. 23th 13 UTC
Name of TC: AMPIL
Num. of TC: 1810
Current Location: 36.6°N 117.6°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 18m/s(64.8km/h)
Central Pressure: 990hPa
Forecast movement: next 24hrs AMPIL will moving N at speed of 20km/h
Currently on land

 

1810-00

 

TS 1810 (Ampil)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 23 July 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 23 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N36°30′ (36.5°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 220 km (120 NM)
W 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N38°40′ (38.7°)
E117°30′ (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N41°30′ (41.5°)
E119°50′ (119.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 12W (Ampil) Warning #23
Issued at 23/0900Z

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 024
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 36.5N 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 350 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 36.5N 118.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 38.8N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 41.4N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 37.1N 118.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
407 NM WEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W
(SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
(FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AMPIL is currently located near 35.0 N 118.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). AMPIL is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Linyi (35.2 N, 118.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Xinpu (34.8 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 994 HPA
AT 36.5N 117.9E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 38.7N 117.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 41.5N 119.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 230600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.23 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.23=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.24=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS AMPIL 1810(1810) 990HPA AT 35.2N 118.6E
MVG NNW 20KMH AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 5.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 40.2N 118.4E 990HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
TD(09) 990HPA AT 20.8N 110.1E MVG NNW 8KMH
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 22.6N 109.1E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 12M/S NEAR CENTER=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 23 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO
4.5M OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVERBOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS
UP TO 2.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18 TO 23M/S
SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT
AND
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
SEA AND AND BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA
STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH TO SLT
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT OVERCAST
BECMG CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BEIBU GULF
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BACK SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT
HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT TO SMOOTH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS BACK E 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China/ East China Sea: Tropical Depression Thirteen 13W 230900Z position nr 29.0N 123.4E, moving N 22 kt (JTWC) – Published 23 Jul 2018 1255Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen 13W

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL, US)

Tropical Depression 13W (Thirteen) Warning #11
Issued at 23/0900Z

wp1318

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 011
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
230600Z — NEAR 28.2N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 123.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z — 31.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 16 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z — 34.5N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 18 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 38.1N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 123.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
220 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

CHINA typhoon_logo_v2.0

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180723080000023

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1810 AMPIL (1810) 992 HPA
AT 35.3N 118.7E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 37.4N 117.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 39.7N 118.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWCI50 BABJ 230600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.23 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.23=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.24=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TS AMPIL 1810(1810) 990HPA AT 35.2N 118.6E
MVG NNW 20KMH AND MAX WINDS 20M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 5.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 40.2N 118.4E 990HPA
AND MAX WINDS 18M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
TD(09) 990HPA AT 20.8N 110.1E MVG NNW 8KMH
AND MAX WINDS 15M/S NEAR CENTER(SEAS UP TO 4.0M)
AND FCST FOR 240600UTC AT 22.6N 109.1E 998HPA
AND MAX WINDS 12M/S NEAR CENTER=
SE WINDS FROM 12 TO 20M/S GUSTS 23 TO 28M/S SEAS
UP TO
4.5M OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF YELLOW SEA=
SE WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA=
E WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS UP TO
1.5M OVERBOHAI SEA AND BOHAI STRAIT=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 16M/S SEAS
UP TO 2.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18 TO 23M/S
SEAS
UP TO 3.0M OVER BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT
AND
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SW WINDS FROM 10 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
3.0M OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
SEA AND AND BEIBU GULF AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA
STRAIT AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND
LAUT MALUKU=
FCST=
BOHAI SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S INCR 14 TO
18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH TO SLT
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BOHAI STRAIT
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT OVERCAST
BECMG CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
SE WINDS VEER S 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD TO SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 04 TO 07M/S GUSTS 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
BEIBU GULF
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
W WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S BACK SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE SLT
HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD OVERCAST
VIS GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD CLOUDY BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT TO SMOOTH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD TO SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD
OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF GUAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS BACK E 07 TO 10M/S SEA STATE MOD CLOUDY
VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO ROUGH
CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Ryukyu Islands (esp Miyako and Yaeyama Islands)/ Okinawa/ Amami Islands/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon MARIA 10W 10/1500Z position nr 25.5N 123.2E, moving WNW 15kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Jul 2018 1440Z (GMT/UTC)


Typhoon MARIA 10W

MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Ryukyu Islands (esp Miyako and Yaeyama Islands)/ Okinawa/ Amami Islands/ Taiwan/ China BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET- JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Typhoon 10W (Maria) Warning #32
Issued at 10/1500Z

wp1018310w_101200sair

Google Earth Overlay
WTPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 25.2N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 124.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 26.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 27.5N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 29.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 30.4N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 123.2E.
TYPHOON 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM EAST OF TAIPEI,
TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

 

 

(JMA is the lead agency in this area)

1808-003

 

>>>> http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 13:45 UTC, 10 July 2018

<Analysis at 13 UTC, 10 July>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°25′ (25.4°)
E123°50′ (123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 240 km (130 NM)
W 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Estimate for 14 UTC, 10 July>
Scale
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°30′ (25.5°)
E123°30′ (123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 240 km (130 NM)
W 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20′ (26.3°)
E120°30′ (120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area E 300 km (160 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N27°10′ (27.2°)
E116°55′ (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 July>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N30°50′ (30.8°)
E113°00′ (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

CHINA

eng_nmc_tcbu_sfer_eme_acwp_l89_pf_20180710200000017

Typhoon Message
20180710 22:03

National Meteorological Center No.1975
Analysis Time: Jul. 10th 14 UTC
Name of TC: MARIA
Num. of TC: 1808
Current Location: 25.5°N 123.6°E
Max. 10-min Wind Speed: 50m/s(180km/h)
Central Pressure: 940hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 550km SE 450km SW 270km NW 350km
Radius of 50knots Winds: NE 200km SE 150km SW 100km NW 150km
Radius of 64knots Winds: NE 60km SE 60km SW 40km NW 60km
Forecast movement: next 24hrs MARIA will moving WNW at speed of 30km/h

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Jul, 2018 6:00 GMT

Typhoon MARIA is currently located near 24.6 N 125.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 110 kts (127 mph). MARIA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Quzhou (29.0 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Nanchang (28.7 N, 115.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Hangzhou (30.3 N, 120.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Wuhan (30.6 N, 114.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind:

 

Other

DrR m10

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

Location of Ryukyu Islands( 📷 Uchinanchu/wikimedia)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

WTJP22 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1808 MARIA (1808) 940 HPA
AT 25.2N 124.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 26.3N 120.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.2N 116.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.8N 113.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWHK82 VHHH 101200
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
SEVERE TYPHOON (ST) MARIA (1808):
R OF HURRICANES:60NM.
R OF STORMS:120NM.
R OF GALES:210NM.
SYNOPSIS (101200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
SUPER TYPHOON MARIA (1808) HAS WEAKENED INTO A ST. AT
101200UTC, MARIA WITH CENTRAL P 955HPA AND MAX WINDS 90KT
WAS CENTERED WITHIN 30NM OF 25.2N 124.0E AND IS FC TO MOVE
WNW AT ABOUT 16KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FC POS AT 111200UTC: 27.3N, 116.7E
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6M,10M,14M OVER GALES,STORMS,HURRICANES.
SWELL E TO NE 5-7M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN AND LUZON STRAIT.
SWELL SE 5-7M OVER EAST CHINA SEA.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
FRQ HEAVY SQ SH AND TS WITHIN 240 NM FROM CENTRE OF MARIA
(1808).
SCT SQ SH AND TS OVER SEAS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES, SEAS NEAR
MALAYSIA.
ISOL SQ SH AND TS OVER N PART OF SCS, GULF OF THAILAND AND
GULF OF TONKIN.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS 500 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

 

WWCI50 BABJ 100600
2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN=
MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUL.10 2018=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUL.10=
FCST VALID 0600UTC JUL.11=
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
SUPERTY MARIA 1808(1808) 935HPA AT 24.7N 125.6E
MVG WNW 30KMH AND MAX WINDS 52M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12.0M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
550KM NE
450KM SE
270KM SW
350KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
200KM NE
150KM SE
100KM SW
150KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
70KM NE
50KM SE
40KM SW
70KM NW
AND FCST FOR 110600UTC AT 26.7N 118.6E 982HPA
AND MAX WINDS 28M/S NEAR CENTER=SUMMARY=
SE WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
SW WINDS FROM 08 TO 16M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
WINDS FROM 22 TO 32M/S SEAS UP TO 6.0M
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 33 TO 50M/S SEAS UP TO 10.0M
OVER SEA NEAR CENTRAL OF MARIA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER YELLOW
SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
JAPAN SEA AND SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS AND
ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA WEST OF SUMATERA AND
SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SUNDA STRAIT AND
MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT SULAWESI AND LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
S WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD TO SLT
RAINSTORM BECMG DOWNPOUR VIS MOD TO POOR=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SLT MOD RAIN
BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MOD TO GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
E WINDS VEER SE 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA
STATE MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
CYCLONIC WINDS 29 TO 36M/S GUSTS 32 TO 41M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH DOWNPOUR VIS POOR=
TAIWAN STRAIT
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SW
WINDS 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 18 TO 24M/S SEA STATE MOD
HVY RAIN BECMG DOWNPOUR VIS GOOD TO MOD=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
CYCLONIC WINDS 25 TO 32M/S GUSTS 29 TO 36M/S BECMG
S WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH DOWNPOUR VIS POOR TO MOD=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD LIGHT RAIN BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
QIONGZHOU STRAIT
E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SLT TO SMOOTH
MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
MOD MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S INCR 12 TO
15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE MOD HVY RAIN
VIS MOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
CYCLONIC WINDS 18 TO 24M/S GUSTS 22 TO 28M/S BECMG
SE WINDS 12 TO 15M/S GUSTS 14 TO 18M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MOD DOWNPOUR BECMG MOD RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S BACK SE
WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MOD
MOD RAIN BECMG HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
SEA WEST OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 07 TO 10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE MOD DOWNPOUR
BECMG MOD RAIN VIS GOOD=
MALACCA STRAIT
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S DECR 07 TO
10M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE SMOOTH MOD RAIN
VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF VIETNAM
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
MOD HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
GULF OF THAILAND
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA STATE
SLT HVY RAIN VIS MOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
W WINDS BACK SW 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 15M/S SEA
STATE MOD HVY RAIN BECMG RAINSTORM VIS MOD=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan/ South Korea/ Russia: Severe Tropical Storm PRAPIROON 03/1600Z 35.3N 130.4E, moving NE 14kt 975 hPa (JMA) – Updated 03 Jul 2018 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon


Japan and South Korea beware!

Russia be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 25 FEET – JTWC

JMA logo

1807-00

JP WARN P 3

STS 1807 (Prapiroon)
Issued at 16:50 UTC, 3 July 2018

<Analysis at 16 UTC, 3 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N35°20′ (35.3°)
E130°25′ (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Estimate for 17 UTC, 3 July>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N35°30′ (35.5°)
E130°35′ (130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 03 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N38°00′ (38.0°)
E133°25′ (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 15 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N40°35′ (40.6°)
E137°00′ (137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 986 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

 

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Storm 09W (Prapiroon) Warning #21
Issued at 03/1500Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

 

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
031200Z — NEAR 34.6N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 129.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 37.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 40.1N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 41.6N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 43.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 35.3N 130.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z,
040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Jul, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PRAPIROON is currently located near 34.6 N 129.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). PRAPIROON is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Russian Federation
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

 

Other

 

 

 

DrR P2

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

 

 

WTJP31 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1807 PRAPIROON (1807) 975 HPA
AT 35.0N 130.2E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 38.0N 133.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 40.6N 137.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Depression CARLOTTA 04E 17/1800Z nr 17.2N 101.6W, moving NW ~6.08kt 1007mb (NHC FL) – Updated 17 Jun 2018 2048Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression CARLOTTA 04E

…CARLOTTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION…

National Hurricane Center (FL US)

181229_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 171803
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018
100 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

…CARLOTTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION…

 

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.2N 101.6W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta
was estimated to be near near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 101.6
West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On
the forecast track, the small core of Carlotta or its remnant should
move inland over southern Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Carlotta could dissipate later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero and Michoacan coasts, including the city of
Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These
rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across
the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

Other

 

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

FZPN02 KWBC 171725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SUN JUN 17 2018

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 19.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 44N155W 996 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 45N155W TO 40N157W TO 33N169W WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO
21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E OF A LINE FROM 52N150W TO
40N158W TO 30N161W…AND S OF 35N BETWEEN 157W AND 166W WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N153W 992 MB. FROM 48N TO 60N BETWEEN
141W AND 151W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 420 NM E AND NE QUADRANTS…WITHIN 240 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…AND WITHIN 360 NM E OF A LINE FROM 49N147W TO
37N150W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N166W 999 MB. N OF 58N BETWEEN 165W AND
173W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 35N TO 54N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 126W AND 133W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 47N TO 54N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.LOW 55N166W 994 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WITHIN 480 NM E AND 360 NM
SE QUADRANTS…AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 54N172W TO
62N164W TO 66N166W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N164W 997 MB. FROM 51N TO 60N BETWEEN
168W AND 172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 42N167W 999 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM S AND 240 NM
W SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 33N165E 1004 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 360 NM N SEMICIRCLE
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 34N174E 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 36N177W 1013 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 38N TO 50N
BETWEEN 140W AND 158W….AND FROM 31N TO 35N BETWEEN 158W AND
163W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 50N BETWEEN 141W AND
149W…FROM 41N TO 45N BETWEEN 156W AND 163W…AND FROM 54N TO
57N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 48N BETWEEN 141W AND
145W…FROM 45N TO 49N BETWEEN 149W AND 155W…FROM 59N TO 64N
BETWEEN 168W AND 170W…AND S OF 34N BETWEEN 176W AND 178E.

.HIGH 46N137W 1029 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N135W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 45N137W 1023 MB.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 58N137W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N136W 1021 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 39N165W 1021 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N163E 1026 MB.

.FORECASTER NOLT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 19.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 17.2N 101.3W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUN 17 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…20 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN AREA
BOUNDED BY 16N98W TO 15N98W TO 15N100W TO 17N102W TO 18N102W TO
17N100W TO 16N98W E WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA NEAR 17.7N 102.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 F.T
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA INLAND NEAR 18.0N
102.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CARLOTTA NEAR 18.3N 102.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N126W TO 30N135W TO 28N139W TO 29N140W
TO 30N140W TO 30N135W TO 30N126W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N131W TO 28N135W TO
28N139W TO 30N140W TO 30N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 02S114W TO 03.4S112W TO 03.4S120W TO
02S117W TO 02S114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 03S118W TO 03.4S117W TO
03.4S120W TO 01S120W TO 03S118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUN 17…

.TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA…NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL WAVE N OF 10N ALONG 93W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 270 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 14N90W TO 08N95W.

.TROUGH FROM 08N131W TO 04N139W…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM
NW OF TROUGH E OF 135W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N73W TO 10N86W TO 15N98W THEN
RESUMES FROM 14N109W TO 09N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N120W
TO 06N127W TO 07N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
03N TO 09N WITHIN 120 NM W OF COAST OF COLOMBIA…WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 116W…WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 123W…WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 131W…AND FROM 03N TO 07N W OF 138W.

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 17 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 18 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 19 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 06N165W MOVING W 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 05N172W TO
08N178E. ASSOCIATED TSTMS INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 06N167W 1011 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 07N154W 1011 MB MB MOVING NW SLOWLY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N162E TO 28N160E MOVING SE SLOWLY. WIND W 20
TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N166E TO 28N163E TO 26N160E.
ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDED
TO 8 FT OR LOWER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N176E TO 27N168E TO 26N160E.

.COLD FRONT APPROACHING FORECAST AREA FROM N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT NEAR 30N164W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N151W TO 27N158W TO 27N164W TO
28N170W.

.RIDGE FROM 30N150W TO 24N161W TO 20N173W TO 20N174E TO 20N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DEVELOPING HIGH NEAR 22N173E 1016 MB. RIDGE
FROM HIGH TO 23N176W TO 24N165W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH NEAR 24N175E 1018 MB. RIDGE FROM HIGH TO
28N173W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.OTHERWISE SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 30N TO 28N BETWEEN 165W AND 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS SUBSIDED TO 8 FT OR LOWER.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 06N140W TO 08N146W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
180 NM S OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN
90 NM N OF LINE OF CONVERGENCE.

.OTHERWISE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 12N TO 06N
BETWEEN 179E AND 175W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM
12N TO 02N BETWEEN 168E AND 148W.

$$

.FORECASTER BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/ East Pacific: Tropical Depression BUD 15/1500Z nr 25.3N 110.0W, moving N ~10.42kt 1002mb (NHC FL) – Updated 15 Jun 2018 1750Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Bud 03E

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL US

143856_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 151436
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Bud Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

…BUD AND ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES…

 

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.3N 110.0W
ABOUT 195 MI…315 KM SSE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM ESE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
from Altata to Huatabampito.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bud was
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 110.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to move inland over
southern Sonora by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Bud is expected to become a remnant low by tonight
and dissipate on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern and eastern Sonora in
northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. An additional 1 to 2
inches of rain are possible in southern portions of Baja California
Sur.

Remnant moisture from Bud is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of
rain with isolated totals of 3 inches across the southwestern U.S.
into the southern and central Rockies through Saturday. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible today along
the coast of mainland Mexico in northern Sinaloa and southern
Sonora states.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of western mainland Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/McElroy

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2018 15:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BUD is currently located near 25.3 N 110.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). BUD is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Los Mochis (25.8 N, 109.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

 

Other

ep201803_5day2

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTPZ23 KNHC 151435
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018
1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 110.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 110.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 110.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN/MCELROY

FZPN02 KWBC 151725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 48N166W 971 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
420 NM S SEMICIRCLE…600 NM N AND 480 NM NW QUADRANTS…AND
WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT FROM 54N153W TO 40N156W TO 30N164W
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N167W 980 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
60N146W TO 40N156W TO 31N163W. WITHIN 480 NM S AND E…AND 540
NM NW QUADRANTS…AND 240 NM E OF THE FRONT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N166W 992 MB. WITHIN 540 NM NW AND 420
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 34N TO 43N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 34N TO 44N BETWEEN 123W AND 131W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 44N BETWEEN 124W AND 131W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 44N TO 53N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 44N TO 53N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 126W AND 134W AREA OF
N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 44N153W 1000 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
54N151W TO LOW TO 31N160W. WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 30 TO
45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 40N168E 998 MB MOVING E 20 KT. FROM 33N TO 47N W OF 173E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N180W 996 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N166W 999 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 37N TO 54N
BETWEEN 136W AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 37N TO 52N BETWEEN 137W AND
156W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 30N TO 43N BETWEEN 169W AND
156W…FROM 37N TO 50N BETWEEN 156W AND 140W…AND FROM 50N TO
57N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

.HIGH 41N141W 1030 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 45N139W 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N137W 1028 MB.

.HIGH 53N139W 1027 MB DRIFTING S.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER NOLT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E NEAR 15.8N 99.7W 1007 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUN 15 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 3 KT. WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FOUR-E NEAR 16.5N 99.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FOUR-E NEAR 17.2N 98.6W. WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD NEAR 25.3N 110.0W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUN 15 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL BUD NEAR 27.2N 109.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 06N131W TO 03.4S92W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01S BETWEEN 105W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S BETWEEN 114W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.18 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE FROM 30N125W TO 28N140W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15…

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD…SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM N
SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E…NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N90W TO 11N93W. IT RESUMES FROM
12N118W TO 08.5N128W. ITCZ FROM 08.5N128W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W
AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 14N
BETWEEN 86W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN
105W AND 118W.

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUN 15 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 16 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUN 17 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FRONT 30N165W 28N172W 30N180W MOVING NE 10 KT. SW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT N OF LINE 30N160W 26N170W 30N165W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT MOVED N OF AREA. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 30N162W 28N166W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.FRONT 30N167E 30N160E MOVING E 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N179W 28N175W 30N165E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT MOVED N OF AREA.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT 30N165E 27N160E.

.ITCZ 08N140W 06N170W 08N174E. SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180
NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 150W AND 175W.

.HIGH 23N164E 1014 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. RIDGE 30N151W 23N165W
19N175E THROUGH HIGH TO 22N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 21N163E 1013 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 21N164E 1013 MB.

.SEAS 8 TO 13 FT N OF LINE 30N156W 24N165W 19N180W 30N173E. SEAS
8 FT BOUNDED BY 15N150W 11N140W 08N157W 15N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 11 FT N OF LINE 30N150W 23N160W
30N180W. SEAS 8 FT FROM 16N TO 12N BETWEEN 150W AND 160W
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF LINE 30N155W 26N160W
30N170W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.HONOLULU FORECASTER.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Taiwan/ Japan/ West Pacific: Tropical Depression GAEMI 08W 151500Z position nr 24.8N 124.3E, moving NE 20kt (JTWC) – Published 1536Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression GAEMI 08W

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL US)

Tropical Depression 08W (Gaemi) Warning #06
Issued at 15/1500Z

wp0818

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 24.4N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 055 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 123.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 26.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 27.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 28.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 124.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z.//
NNNN

JMA logo

1806-00

TS 1806 (Gaemi)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 June 2018

Scale
Intensity
Center position N24°55′ (24.9°)
E123°55′ (123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 390 km (210 NM)
NW 170 km (90 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N26°40′ (26.7°)
E126°30′ (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N28°00′ (28.0°)
E129°10′ (129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Intensity
LOW
Center position of probability circle N30°05′ (30.1°)
E133°30′ (133.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

HIMAWARI Imagery

TAIWAN

No ‘Typhoon News’ – Severe Weather Warnings: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/fifows/index.htm?

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jun, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression GAEMI is currently located near 23.2 N 121.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). GAEMI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

 

Other

wp201808_5day

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 151200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 32N 142E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 32N 142E TO 32N 146E 30N 149E.
COLD FRONT FROM 32N 142E TO 29N 140E 27N 135E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N 135E TO 27N 130E 26N 124E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 141E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 173E 40N 146E 42N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 40N 167E ENE 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 51N 148E SOUTH SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 19N 167E EAST SLOWLY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 167E TO 40N 169E 38N 171E.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 171E TO 34N 175E 31N 179E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 171E TO 33N 170E 29N 164E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 164E TO 29N 156E 30N 149E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1806 GAEMI (1806) 994 HPA AT 24.9N 123.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Japan: Tropical Storm SEVEN 07W 141500Z position nr 28.6N 131.1E, moving ENE 35kt (JTWC) – Published 14 Jun 2018 1720Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm SEVEN 07W

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (FL US)

wp0718

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
141200Z — NEAR 27.9N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 065 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 129.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 30.5N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 26 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 32.3N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 131.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH TS 07W IS BEING SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 141201Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND SEVERAL 35 KNOT WIND BARBS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 07W HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES AND IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (50
TO 60 KNOTS). A 140900Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS-SECTION
SHOWS THAT TS 07W IS LOSING ANY REMAINING WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE ALSO INDICATES THAT
TS 07W IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH A WEST TO EAST MOVING TROUGH. TS 07W
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
(EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

TAIWAN

No ‘Typhoon News’ – Severe Weather Warnings: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/fifows/index.htm?

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Jun, 2018 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SEVEN is currently located near 27.9 N 129.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). SEVEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm wind:

Other

 

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 141200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 27N 129E SEA AROUND OF OKINAWA MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA
AT 22.5N 119.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 24.4N 122.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 25.3N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 144E 46N 150E
53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 30N 170E 30N 155E 35N 160E 40N
160E 40N 150E 42N 144E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 44N 152E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 38N 162E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 56N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 23N 164E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 54N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 162E TO 36N 166E 33N 170E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 162E TO 36N 162E 34N 160E 32N 156E 28N 151E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 151E TO 27N 148E 26N 143E 27N 137E 28N 133E
27N 129E 26N 127E 25N 122E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Japan/ Philippines/ West Pacific: Tropical Storm MALIKSI/ Domeng (06W) 08/0600Z 18.7N, 126.4E, moving NW 11kt 996 hPa (JMA) – Updated 08 Jun 2018 0843Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm MALIKSI 06W

(Domeng in Philippines)

JMA logo

1805-00 M JMA TRACK

TS 1805 (Maliksi)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 8 June 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 8 June>
Scale Large
Intensity
Center position N18°40′ (18.7°)
E126°25′ (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 440 km (240 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N20°50′ (20.8°)
E127°00′ (127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°30′ (22.5°)
E128°00′ (128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 10 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N25°35′ (25.6°)
E132°10′ (132.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Storm warning area SE 390 km (210 NM)
NW 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N31°10′ (31.2°)
E140°00′ (140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)
Storm warning area SE 520 km (280 NM)
NW 480 km (260 NM)

 

HIMAWARI Imagery

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #7
FOR:Tropical Storm Domeng
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT

ISSUED AT:11:00 AM, 08 June 2018

“DOMENG” HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES IN A NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION.

  • The combined effects of “Domeng” {Maliksi} and the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring moderate to occasional heavy rains over Aurora, Bataan and the regions of Bicol, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA and Western Visayas; scattered rainshowers will prevail over the rest of Luzon and of Visayas today.
  • “DOMENG” is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), which may bring monsoon rains over Metro Manila and the rest of western sections of both Luzon and Visayas this weekend.
  • Residents of the these areas are advised to take appropriate actions against possible flash floods and landslides and coordinate with their local DRRM offices.
  • Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon and of Visayas, and the western seaboard of Southern Luzon.

 

PAGASA Track Satellite Image

 

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “DOMENG” was estimated based on all available data at 655 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (17.8 °N, 127.9 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move North Northeast at 17 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 770 km East of Basco, Batanes(21.1°N, 129.3°E)
  • 48 Hour(Sunday morning):1,225 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes(24.3°N, 133.1°E)
  • 72 Hour(Monday morning): 2,030 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(29.4°N, 139.5°E)

 

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 PM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

 

JTWC

Tropical Storm 06W (Maliksi) Warning #01
Issued at 08/0300Z

 

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
071551ZJUN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
080000Z — NEAR 17.6N 127.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 035 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 127.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 19.5N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 21.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 23.0N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 24.9N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 29.9N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 36.6N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 127.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND
090300Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 071600).
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (EWINIAR) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31
PGTW 072100).//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jun, 2018 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MALIKSI is currently located near 17.6 N 127.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). MALIKSI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Other

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 080600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 40N 142E
42N 141E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 34N 180E 30N 160E 28N 140E 27N
128E 31N 131E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 40N 135E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 42N 140E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 160E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 992 HPA AT 46N 176E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 34N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 55N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 35N 151E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 22N 161E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 58N 176E ESE 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 49N 160E TO 49N 164E 48N 169E.
COLD FRONT FROM 49N 160E TO 44N 155E 42N 149E.
COLD FRONT FROM 41N 180E TO 36N 170E 33N 164E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 164E TO 30N 150E 32N 140E 33N 133E 30N 126E
27N 118E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1805 MALIKSI (1805) 996 HPA AT 18.7N 126.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1804 EWINIAR (1804) 998 HPA AT 23.0N 112.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 080600

TTT GALE WARNING 14

 

AT 0600 08 JUNE TROPICAL STORM {MALIKSI} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 090600 TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 100600 TWO SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 110600 TWO NINE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE NINE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

East Pacific/ Mexico: CAT3 HURRICANE ALETTA 02E 08/0600Z near 15.6N 110.5W, moving W ~5.2kt 957mb Intensifying (NHC FL) – Published 08 Jun 2018 0735z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Aletta 02E

…ALETTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE…There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect….NHC

Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions expected parts of coast of west-central mainland Mexico and the west coast of Baja California Sur

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL US

055806_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 080556
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Aletta Special Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018

…ALETTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE…

 

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT…0600 UTC...INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.6N 110.5W
ABOUT 470 MI…760 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI…360 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Aletta was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 110.5 West. Aletta is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west-northwestward or
northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Aletta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
expected through the day today. Weakening is forecast to begin by
Saturday, with Aletta likely weakening to a tropical storm on
Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Aletta will begin to affect portions of
the coast of west-central mainland Mexico and the west coast of
Baja California Sur later today and will continue through the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Other

ep201802_5day1

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0555

WTPZ22 KNHC 080555 RRB
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

FZPN02 KWBC 080525
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI JUN 08 2018

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC JUN 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 10.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 46N173E 990 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 360 NM N…780 NM
E…900 NM SE…AND 300 NM SW QUADRANTS…AND WITHIN 240 NM SE
OF A FRONT FROM 39N174E TO 34N160E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN WEAKENING LOW 46N177W
998 MB AND NEW LOW 48N167W 992 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE…600 NM
SE…960 NM SW…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS OF NEW LOW AND WITHIN
420 NM SW QUADRANT OF WEAKENING LOW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N164W 994 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NE…1200 NM
SE…420 NM SW…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
8 TO 15 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 52N142W 992 MB DRIFTING E. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 360 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM E…780 NM S…AND 720 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N140W 1004 MB. WITHIN 660 NM S AND 240
NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N137W 1012 MB. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

…GALE WARNING…
.OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 35N124W TO 30N121W AREA
OF NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W AREA OF
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 38N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W AREA OF
NW TO N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 63N BETWEEN 167W AND 170W AREA OF N
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 65N BETWEEN 168W AND 170W AREA OF NW TO N
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NW AND W OF A LINE FROM 65N166W TO 63N170W
AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE FROM 55N135W TO 49N128W AREA
OF SE TO S WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N161E 1001 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 50N159E 1009 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM
AND 420 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 35N TO 48N W OF 169E
AREA OF SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 120 NM OF
39N128W AND FROM 38N TO 48N BETWEEN 170W AND 172E AND OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 44N TO 48N W OF 162E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 90 NM OF 38N125W AND FROM 37N
TO 48N BETWEEN 156W AND 173W AND FROM 42N TO 47N W OF 169E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
47N152W TO 40N160W AND FROM 41N TO 49N W OF 175E.

.HIGH 32N159W 1025 MB MOVING NE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N149W 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N142W 1030 MB.

.HIGH 30N136W 1025 MB DRIFTING W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N167E 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N177E 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI JUN 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT JUN 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 10.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.HURRICANE ALETTA NEAR 15.6N 110.3W 973 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 08
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E
SEMICIRCLE…120 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE…270 NM SE…210 SW AND
180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALETTA NEAR 16.6N 111.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NE…
210 SE…180 NM SW AND 210 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE…330 NM SE…210 SW AND 240 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 105W AND 112W AND FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALETTA NEAR 17.8N 113.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLES. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 240 NM E AND 180 W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE…360 NM SE…240 SW AND 270 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 94W AND 113W AND FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALETTA NEAR 19.1N 115.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA NEAR 20.0N 117.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ALETTA NEAR 20.5N
119.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 04N134W TO 03.4S100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 07N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE WITH ALETTA…S OF 24N
BETWEEN 100W AND 135W AND ALSO FROM 14N TO 25N W OF 135W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N98W 1008 MB.
WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN
SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
13N101W 1005 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8
FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC FRI JUN 8…

.HURRICANE ALETTA…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM NE AND
180 NM SE QUADRANTS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 10N100W, RESUMES FROM 10N116W TO
06N125W. ITCZ FROM 06N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC JUN 08 2018.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 09 2018.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 10 2018.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROUGH FROM 24N176E TO 17N175E TO 13N173E MOVING W SLOWLY.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 17N TO 22N
BETWEEN 175E AND 179E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 23N173E TO 16N172E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 08N178E TO 05N176E TO 03N173E MOVING W 10 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 173E AND
178E…AND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 177W AND 179W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 09N172E TO 04N167E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAK TROUGH FROM 10N167E TO 06N164E.

.RIDGE FROM 30N171W TO 27N175E TO 24N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.12 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 147W AND 151W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 09N TO 18N E OF
154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 22N E OF
164W…AND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 160W AND 163W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 148W
AND 154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 150W
AND 160W…AND FROM 12N TO 20N E OF 150W.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 06N140W TO 07N145W TO 06N158W TO 07N171W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 168W.

$$

.FORECASTER KINEL. HONOLULU HI.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

China: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (05W) 06/0900Z position nr 21.8N 112.0E, moving NNE 7kt/~8mph (JTWC) – Updated 07 Jun 2018 1542Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Ewiniar (05W)

China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET – JTWC

 

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Storm 05W (Ewiniar) Warning #22
Issued at 07/1500Z

 

wp05185

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
071200Z — NEAR 21.6N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 030 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 112.0E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 22.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 22.7N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 23.1N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 112.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

JMA logo

(JMA is the lead agency for this area)

1804-001

TS 1804 (Ewiniar)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 7 June 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 7 June>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N21°30′ (21.5°)
E112°00′ (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 8 June>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N22°25′ (22.4°)
E112°10′ (112.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 June>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°10′ (23.2°)
E112°25′ (112.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

CHINA (HKO)

Tropical Storm EWINIAR
at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Position: 21.7 N, 111.9 E (about 240 km west-southwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 75 km/h
Ewiniar will linger over western Guangdong today and tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 23:00 HKT 07 June 2018

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
20:00 HKT 08 June 2018 23.0 N 111.9 E Tropical Depression 55 km/h
20:00 HKT 09 June 2018 23.0 N 112.6 E Low Pressure Area 40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )

Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% (‘Potential Track Area’). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the ‘Potential Track Area’ corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
    Analysed Position 30 km
    24-hour forecast position 125 km
    48-hour forecast position 225 km
    72-hour forecast position 325 km
    96-hour forecast position 400 km
    120-hour forecast position 500 km
  • The analysed tropical cyclone position (the symbol tropical cyclone symbol ) is based on Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly bulletin for public derived from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions.
  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are updated every hour. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EWINIAR is currently located near 21.6 N 112.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). EWINIAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

Other

Dr R E 7

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

(Image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 071200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 17.0N 127.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 19.1N 128.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 20.6N 128.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 132E 35N 140E
40N 142E 42N 141E 46N 151E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N
150E 28N 130E 32N 132E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 45N 127E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 49N 156E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 37N 159E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 996 HPA AT 44N 169E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 35N 125E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 35N 143E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 58N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 25N 161E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 57N 172E SE 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 49N 156E TO 49N 160E 48N 165E.
COLD FRONT FROM 49N 156E TO 46N 150E 42N 143E.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 169E TO 44N 172E 44N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 176E TO 43N 180E 40N 174W.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 176E TO 40N 172E 38N 168E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 168E TO 37N 164E 37N 159E 33N 150E 31N 140E
31N 130E 27N 120E 25N 112E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1804 EWINIAR (1804) 998 HPA AT 21.5N 112.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

HKO Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Tropical Cyclone Warning |  Track and Positions of Tropical Cyclones
Current Weather |  Local Weather Forecast |  9-day Weather Forecast
South China Coastal Waters |  Marine Forecast
Severe Weather Information Centre

Bulletin issued at 22:15 HKT 07/Jun/2018

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 071200 UTC, Tropical Storm Ewiniar (1804) with central pressure 990 hectopascals was centred within 60 nautical miles of two one point six degrees north (21.6 N) one one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E) and is forecast to move north or north-northeast slowly for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 40 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 150 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 081200 UTC
Two three point zero degrees north (23.0 N)
One one one point nine degrees east (111.9 E)
Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 091200 UTC
Dissipated over land.


The Hong Kong Observatory’s tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Track

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Oman/ Yemen/ Somalia/ Saudi Arabia: Tropical Cyclone/ ESCS MEKUNU 02A 251500Z near 116.7N 54.2E, moving NNW 08kt (JTWC) – Updated 24 May 2018 1845Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone/ EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (ESCS) MEKUNU (02A)

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Will landfall soon near Salalah, Oman

Yemen, Somalia & Saudi Arabia be aware.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 32 FEET – JTWC

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu) Warning #15
Issued at 25/1500Z

io02182

Google Earth Overlay

WTIO31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 16.4N 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 54.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 17.4N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 18.3N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 18.8N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 19.1N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 54.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250941Z AMSR-2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 15-NM
EYE. BASED ON THE RECENT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AND IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 02A
IS APPROACHING THE OMAN COAST THUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SALALAH
ARE INDICATING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 34 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS AS OF 25/1250Z. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
25/18Z AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND, TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AS A
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z,
260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 26
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (ESCS) ‘MEKUNU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA – ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SIX ISSUED AT 1700 UTC OF 25TH MAY, 2018 BASED ON 1500
UTC OF 25TH MAY, 2018.
THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MEKUNU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 10 KMPH DURING PAST
06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, 25TH MAY 2018 OVER
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.60N AND LONGITUDE 54.00E, CLOSE
TO SOUTH OMAN-SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS (ABOUT 50 KM SOUTH OF SALALAH
(41316)). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH
OMAN-SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS CLOSE TO SALALAH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH WIND SPEED 170-180 GUSTING TO 200 KMPH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES
INDICATE THAT UPPER HALF OF THE EYE WALL REGION IS ENTERING INTO LAND.
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION
(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE
25/1500 16.6/54.0 170-180 GUSTING TO 200 EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM
25/1800 17.0/53.8 150-160 GUSTING TO 180 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/0000 17.5/53.5 130-140 GUSTING TO 155 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/0600 18.0/53.2 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/1200 18.6/52.7 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
27/0000 19.4/52.0 35-45 GUSTING TO 55 DEPRESSION
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 25TH MAY 2018, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T5.0. THE CLOUD SHOWS EYE PATTERN. ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LIE OVER AREA BETWEEN LATTITUDE 13.0 DEG N & 20.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 50.0 DEG. E
TO 57.0 DEG. E. MINIMUM CTT IS MINUS 93 DEG. C.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 962 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA IS
PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com
STROM SURGE GUIDANCE:
STROM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 METERS HEIGHT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS
VERY LIKELY TO INUNDATE THE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE LANDFALL POINT DURING
NEXT SIX HOURS.
REMARKS:
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 30-31 DEG C OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
THERE IS POSITIVE SST ANOMALY OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 70-90 KJ/SQ. CM TO THE LEFT FORWARD SECTOR OF
THE PREDICTED TRACK. HOWEVER, IT IS RELATIVELY LOW, AROUND 60-70 KJ/SQ. CM TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREDICTED TRACK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG 200N TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND HENCE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 250X10-6
PER SEC TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ABOUT 50 X10-5 PER SEC TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 PER SEC TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME LOW (5-10 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA DURING
PAST 6 HOURS LEADING TO SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EVEN THOUGH THERE IS DECRESE IN
RATE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INCURSION TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERATION.
THE STEERING WINDS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS SOUTH OMAN–SOUTHEAST YEMEN COAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSHPERIC LEVEL LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
(D. R. Pattanaik)
SCIENTIST-E, RSMC NEW DELHI

www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-24652484 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com

OMAN

paca 6.jpg

paca6 arabic

Oman advice

http://www.met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/home/

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

Other

DrR

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

<

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 251800

WTIN01 DEMS 251800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 25 MAY 2018.

PART-I STORM WARNING
THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MEKUNU OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1430 HRS IST OF TODAY, 25TH MAY
2018 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 54.4 DEG E, ABOUT 400 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS
AND 100 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH(OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH OMAN-SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS
BETWEEN 53 DEG E AND 54 DEG E CLOSE TO SALALAH, AROUND MIDNIGHT OF
TODAY, THE 25TH MAY, 2018 AS AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH
WIND SPEED 160-170 GUSTING TO 190 KMPH.

PART:-II
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER ANDAMAN
SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL AROUND 28TH MAY.

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 15/40 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E
OF 67 DEG E TO 76 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 76 DEG E: SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 11)W OF 60 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)E OF 68 DEG E E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO W OF 64 DEG E 3-6 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2-3.5 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE E
OF 65 DEG E TO 73 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 73 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-1)W OF 60 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 65 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 11)W OF 60 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 6 DEG N TO W OF 65 DEG E: 2.5-4 MTR (.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)
3)REST AREA: 2-2.5 MTR(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E
CYCLONIC 45-90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE
E OF 65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)W OF 57 DEG E TO N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 67 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 57 DEG E TO N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)E OF 67 DEG E TO S OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 70 DEG E: OVER 14 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 2-3.5 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY TO THE E OF 63 DEG E TO 70 DEG E(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS TO BEC CYCLONIC
10/20 KTS TO THE S OF 14 DEG N (.)
3)N OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 58 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E TO S OF 15 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 58 DEG E: 8-6 NM(.)
2)E OF 64 DEG E TO S OF 15 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)W OF 60 DEG E 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2-3.5 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG
E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)S OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 91 DEG E (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N : SW-LY 10/25 KTS BEC 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 93 DEG E
(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 90 DEG E 2-3 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-1)W OF 86 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)E OF 86 DEG E: SE/E-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE
N OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: 2-3.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 19 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 19 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-1.5 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SW-LY 05/20 KTS BEC S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE N OF 17 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:-1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)S OF 15 DEG N TO W OF 92 DEG E : 2-3.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 0.5-2 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Fiji/ Tonga: Tropical Cyclone KENI 19P, 13F 101500Z position near 22.1S 177.6W, moving SE 25kt (JTWC) – Updated 10 Apr 2018 1520z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone KENI (19P, 13F)

Mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa currently (Fiji Intensity Category 3) = approx equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Keni) Warning #08
Issued at 10/1500Z

 

 

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 21.1S 178.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.7W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 25.2S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 34 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 31.1S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 37 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 38.2S 167.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 177.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 19P NO LONGER HAS AN EYE FEATURE AND THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
101011Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON A WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS TC 19P
RAPIDLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 19P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

Mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa expected by 6 pm April 9 UTC

(Fiji Intensity Category 2)

RSMC Nadi, Fiji LOGO

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone KENI

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 32 issued 1300 UTC Tuesday 10 April 2018

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone KENI

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm April 10 3 20.9S 179.0W 85
+6hr 6 pm April 10 3 22.4S 177.1W 110
+12hr 12 am April 11 2 24.8S 175.0W 140
+18hr 6 am April 11 2 27.2S 173.0W 165
+24hr 12 pm April 11 2 30.8S 171.2W 195
+36hr 12 am April 12 1 38.3S 167.9W 255
+48hr 12 pm April 12 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 12 am April 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 pm April 13 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 100852 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6S
179.1E AT 100600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND
HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 21 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM
STEERED TO SOUTHEAST BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE WITH LG SURROUND GIVING DT OF
4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 21.3S 178.8W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 23.4S 176.7W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.6S 174.8W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 30.4S 173.5W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 101400 UTC.

FIJI

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:00pm on Tuesday the 10th of April 2018

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MATUKU, TOTOYA AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU
GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVIT GROUP AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PARTS OF FIJI. For more information, refer
to the latest Special Weather Bulletin on Flood issued by RSMC, Nadi at
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20016.txt

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3
SOUTH 179.6 EAST OR ABOUT 100 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU AND ABOUT
270KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADAVU AT 9:00 pm. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 130 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185
KM/HR. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 45 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 KILOMETRES
SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 11:00 am TOMORROW AND ABOUT 1200 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST
OF ONO-I-LAU AT 11:00 pm TOMORROW.

FOR ONO-I-LAU:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 130KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH STORM SURGE OF MORE THAN 2 METERS COULD BE EXPECTED
OVER COASTAL AREAS.

FOR MATUKU, TOTOYA AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU GROUP:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 80KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
110KM/HR.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASING FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN GRADUALLY EASING
FROM TOMORROW. FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA .FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 50 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
80KM/HR. WINDS EASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH FROM TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY
AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVIT GROUP . RAIN EASING FROMTOMORROW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES OVER ELSEWHERE.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS LIKELY.

 

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WITH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 2:00 AM TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLIER.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Apr, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone KENI is currently located near 21.1 S 178.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KENI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KENI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nuku’ alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

Other

sp201819_5day1

(Above image: @wunderground)

doc k10

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / HURRICANE_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 1200 

WHPS01 NFFN 101200
HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 101254 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9 SOUTH 179.0
WEST AT 101200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.9S 179.0W AT 101200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.8S 175.0W AT 110000 UTC
AND NEAR 30.8S 171.2W AT 111200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 031.

STORM WARNING 027 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 091322 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3
SOUTH 173.6 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.3S 173.6E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
65 KNOTS BY 110000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.8S 175.8E AT 100000 UTC
AND NEAR 20.1S 179.6E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

FIJI

Extracted from Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENIISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:00pm on Tuesday the 10th of April  2018

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WITH PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Yap/ Palau/ Micronesia/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm JELAWAT (1803, 03W) 260900Z 8.2N 136.4E, moving WNW 10 kt 998hPa (JMA) – Updated 26 Mar 2018 1057z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JELAWAT (1803, 03W)

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Kayangel in the
Republic of Palau.

logo

1803-001

TS 1803 (Jelawat)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 26 March 2018

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 26 March>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N8°10′ (8.2°)
E136°25′ (136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 170 km (90 NM)
S 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 26 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°25′ (9.4°)
E135°10′ (135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 27 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N10°40′ (10.7°)
E134°10′ (134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 28 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°00′ (14.0°)
E134°05′ (134.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 29 March>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N16°50′ (16.8°)
E134°55′ (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 03W (Jelawat) Warning #07
Issued at 26/0900Z

 

 

wp0318

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 8.0N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N 136.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 9.5N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 10.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 12.0N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 13.8N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 16.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 19.1N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 21.2N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 8.4N 136.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 260923
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (03W) Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP032018
800 PM ChST Mon Mar 26 2018

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT WEST OF NGULU MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST…

Changes with this advisory
————————–
None.

Watches and warnings
——————–
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Kayangel in the
Republic of Palau.

Summary of 700 PM CHST…0900 UTC…Information
———————————————–
Location…8.4N 136.1E

About 95 miles west of Ngulu
About 100 miles east-northeast of Kayangel
About 140 miles east-northeast of Koror
About 155 miles west-southwest of Yap
About 680 miles west-southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds…35 mph
Present movement…west-northwest…295 degrees at 14 mph

Discussion and outlook
———————-
At 700 PM CHST…0900 UTC…the center of Tropical Depression
Jelawat was located near Latitude 8.4 North and Longitude 136.1 East.
Jelawat is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. It is expected to turn to
the northwest overnight and then north on Tuesday while slowing down
in forward speed slightly.

Tropical Depression Jelawat remains somewhat disorganized, thus
maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Jelawat is still expected
to intensify gradually the next couple of days, possibly becoming a
tropical storm tonight or Tuesday.

Next advisory
————-
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather Service
at 1100 PM followed by the next scheduled advisory at 200 AM Tuesday
morning.

$$

Nierenberg

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2018 0:00 GMT

Tropical Depression JELAWAT is currently located near 7.5 N 137.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). JELAWAT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Koror (7.3 N, 134.5 E)
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Other

 

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 260600

WTJP21 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1803 JELAWAT (1803) 998 HPA
AT 08.0N 136.7E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 09.3N 135.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 10.6N 134.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 14.0N 134.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 16.8N 134.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

 

================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Severe Tropical Cyclone NORA 24/1200Z near 14.4S 141.5E, moving SSE 11kt (TCWC Darwin) – Updated 24 Mar 2018 1400z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone NORA (16P)

Australian Intensity Category 3

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

The destructive core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is beginning to impact the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

Warning zone: Karumba to Weipa

Watch zone: NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora

Issued at 8:33 pm AEST Saturday 24 March 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 23.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

The destructive core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is beginning to impact the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Karumba to Weipa.

Watch zone: NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora at 7:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South, 141.2 degrees East , 25 kilometres west of Cape Keerweer and 185 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama .
Movement: southeast at 21 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora has started weaken as it nears land on the western side of the Cape York Peninsula, although it remains a Category 3 system. The eye wall of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is currently impacting the coast near Cape Keerweer. the system has begun to track more towards the south southeast in the last few hours, moving more parallel to the coast. A coastal crossing between Cape Keerweer and Gilbert River Mouth is predicted overnight tonight or during Sunday.

From later Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone is expected to become slow moving over land around the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria.

There is a slight risk that the cyclone takes a more southerly track than depicted and tracks parallel to the coast, remaining over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria into early next week. In this scenario, the cyclone is still expected to weaken, although more slowly than if it crosses the Cape York Peninsula coast this weekend.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Weipa and Kowanyama this evening. Gales may extend south between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth, including adjacent inland parts later tonight, and between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba during Sunday morning. Gales may extend further south to between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island later on Sunday or Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Weipa and Kowanyama this evening. Destructive winds may extend south between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth later Saturday night or early Sunday. Destructive winds may also extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba during Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 190 kilometres per hour may develop between Aurukun and Kowanyama, this evening or overnight, as the core of the cyclone nears the coast. If the cyclone tracks more southerly and remains over water on Sunday, maintaining its intensity, very destructive winds may extend south between Kowanyama and Karumba during Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula and extending to the Gulf Country of Queensland during Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

Coastal residents between Weipa and Gilbert River Mouth are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Recommended Action:

People between Weipa and the Gilbert River Mouth should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be secured using available daylight hours.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between the Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 7 pm March 24 3 13.9S 141.2E 20
+6hr 1 am March 25 3 14.7S 141.6E 40
+12hr 7 am March 25 2 15.4S 141.7E 65
+18hr 1 pm March 25 2 15.9S 141.8E 85
+24hr 7 pm March 25 2 16.3S 141.8E 110
+36hr 7 am March 26 1 16.7S 142.0E 145
+48hr 7 pm March 26 tropical low 16.6S 142.4E 180
+60hr 7 am March 27 tropical low 16.6S 142.4E 220
+72hr 7 pm March 27 tropical low 16.8S 141.8E 255

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:30 pm AEST Saturday

 

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Weipa and the Gilbert River Mouth are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 11:25 pm AEST [10:55 pm ACST] on Saturday 24 March 2018

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora is currently crossing the western coast of Cape York Peninsula north of Pormpuraaw.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Karumba to Aurukun.

Watch Zone
NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island.

Cancelled Zone
Aurukun to Weipa.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora at 10:00 pm AEST [9:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 14.4 degrees South 141.5 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres north northwest of Pormpuraaw and 125 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama.

Movement: south southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora, Category 3, is tracking south southeastwards, slowly crossing the coast north of Pormpuraaw. As the system is moving somewhat parallel to the coast, the period of crossing will be extended, and the cyclone is only expected to weaken slowly and may still be a Category 2 or Category 3 system as it approaches Kowanyama on sunday morning.

 

From later Sunday, the Tropical Cyclone is expected to continue gradually weakening as it becomes slow moving over land near the southwestern base of Cape York Peninsula.

 

The system may move back over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria late Monday or on Tuesday, where it may reintensify briefly to a Category 1 cyclone.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Aurukun and Gilbert River Mouth , including adjacent inland parts, tonight. Gales may extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba, including adjacent inland parts, during Sunday. Gales may extend further south to between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, on Monday, depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens.

 

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Aurukun and Gilbert River Mouth tonight or during Sunday morning. Destructive winds may also extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba later on Sunday, depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens.

 

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 190 kilometres per hour may develop between Cape Keerweer and Kowanyama tonight, as the core of the cyclone moves along the coast.

 

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about Torres Strait and Cape York Peninsula and extending to the Gulf Country of Queensland during Sunday, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.

 

Coastal residents between Weipa and Gilbert River Mouth are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Recommended Action:
People between Aurukun and the Gilbert River Mouth should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be secured using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

 

 

People between the Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

 

 

People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:30 am AEST Sunday 25 March [2:00 am ACST Sunday 25 March].

This advice is available on telephone QLD-1300 659 212 and NT-1300 659 211

 

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Nora) Warning #09
Issued at 24/0900Z

sh16181

16p_240600sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240600Z — NEAR 13.3S 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 140.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 14.9S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z — 16.0S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 16.4S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 16.8S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 17.2S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 17.7S 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 141.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM NORTHWEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP AND
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 12-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 240521Z
GPM 37GHZ PASS WHICH IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE IN THE MSI WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY TILTED SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF 16P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-KNOT
NORTHERLY VWS BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE GULF ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. TC NORA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD
AFTER TAU 12 ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA AS THE NER
BUILDS. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
WILL BUILD AND COMPETE FOR STEERING, CAUSING TC 16P TO BECOME QS UP
TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE NER WILL RECEDE AND THE STR WILL DOMINATE
AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
TERRITORY. THE INITIAL LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 16P,
THEN AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CAUSE A MORE RAPID
DECAY. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND BY TAU
96 WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE
IN UNISON WITH THE TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, HOWEVER, EGRR AND AFUM OFFER
A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE CORAL SEA AFTER
TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE EGRR/AFUM SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
A QS MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z, AND 251500.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2018 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone NORA is currently located near 13.3 S 140.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). NORA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NORA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Edward River (15.0 S, 141.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Weipa (12.6 S, 142.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Coen (13.9 S, 143.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Bamaga (10.9 S, 142.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Normanton (17.8 S, 141.0 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

Other

sp201816_5day3

(Above image: @wunderground)

doc nora 24

 

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

0:2:2:24:14S142E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1329UTC 24 MARCH 2018

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora was centred within 10 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal four south (14.4S)
longitude one hundred and forty one decimal five east (141.5E)
Recent movement : south southeast at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 65 knots
Central pressure: 976 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre easing to 50 knots by 1200 UTC 25
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough to high seas and
moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 25 March: Within 35 nautical miles of 15.8 south 141.8 east
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 25 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.5 south 142.0 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 24 March 2018.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

METAREA X (link)

================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone ELIAKIM (14S) 182100Z position nr 21.7S 49.6E, moving S 11kt (JTWC) – Updated 18 Mar 2018 2105z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone ELIAKIM (7,14S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 22 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Eliakim) Warning #16
Issued at 18/2100Z

sh14181

14s_181800sair

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
181800Z — NEAR 21.2S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 49.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 23.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 25.5S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 27.9S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 30.6S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 35.1S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM WEST
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PULSATING BANDING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES
AND A LOW REFLECTION CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN AN 181555Z 89
GHZ SSMIS, ALSO SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, ABOVE AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), AND BELOW AN 181556Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET, AND ANOTHER
POINT SOURCE APPROXIMATELY 500 NM TO THE NORTHWEST THAT APPEARS TO
BE CREATING SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY EXPLAINING THE
LACK OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE
NEAR 27 CELSIUS. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS GUIDED BY THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU
24 AS IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE WATERS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
ENCROACHING NORTHWEST POINT SOURCE. BEYOND TAU 24, SSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE WITH A STEEP GRADIENT POLEWARD OF 30 DEGREES SOUTH.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND TC 14S WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM BY TAU 72 AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHT GROUPING OF AVAILABLE
SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

 

METEO FRANCE La Réunion

 

WTIO31 FMEE 181831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LA REUNION
CYCLONIC FORECASTING AND PRECISION BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 19/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC ON 18/03/2018:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM POINT 21.2 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DEGREE TWO SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DEGREE THREE IS)
DISPLACEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0 / 3.0 / S 0.0 / 0 H
4.A PRESSURE AT THE CENTER: 992 HPA
5.WIND MAX (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): 65 KM
6.A WIND EXTENSION BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SO: 220 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 0
7.A COAST / DIAM FIRST ISOBARE CLOSED: 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND = 040 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
24H: 19/03/2018 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.0 E, WIND MAX = 045 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
36H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND = 050 KT, POSTTROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 20/03/2018 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 050 KT, POSTTROPICAL LOW
60H: 21/03/2018 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 050 KT, POSTTROPICAL LOW
72H: 21/03/2018 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, POSTTROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B FUTURE TREND:
96H: 22/03/2018 18 UTC: 40.1 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, LOW
EXTRATROPICAL
2.C COMMENTS:
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONVECTION IS CLEARLY
REINFORCED, ENJOYING THE REMOVAL OF COTES MALGACHE, EN
STARTS TO ORGANIZE A CURVED BAND.
ELIAKIM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD AND SOUTH
ALONG THE WESTERN FACADE THEN SOUTHWEST OF A MIDDLE RIDGE
TROPOSPHERE BEFORE INTEGRATING CURRENT DISTURB OF AVERAGE
Latitudes.
THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FOR THE MOMENT OF A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE SIDE
POLAR AHEAD OF THE ALTITUDE THALWEG. THE REMOVAL OF THE COAST
SHOULD ALLOW A SMALL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT
HOURS. BUT STRENGTHENING A NORTHWEST ALTITUDE CONSTRAINT
BEFORE A TALWEG MONDAY DAY MONDAY SHOULD
LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD START PHASE
EXTRATROPICALIZATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINING INFLUENCE
DURING ITS DIVING TO LATITUDES SOUTH.

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Mar, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ELIAKIM is currently located near 21.2 S 49.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). ELIAKIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Farafangana (22.8 S, 47.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds:

 

Other

si201814_5day E 18 WUND

(Above image: @wunderground)

Doc E 18

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Pay special attention to the time forecasts were issued)

 

WTIO24 FMEE 181829
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 06 UTC:
23.2 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 18 UTC:
25.3 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Reunion: Tropical Cyclone Dumazile (11S) 061500Z position nr 25.4S 55.1E, moving SE 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 06 Mar 2018 1652z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile (11S)

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Dumazile) Warning #17
Issued at 06/1500Z

sh11182

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
061200Z — NEAR 25.0S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 54.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 26.8S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 28.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 30.0S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 32.3S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 39.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME TOTALLY CLOUD-FILLED. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE INITIAL
POSITION HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO POSITION, AIDED ONLY BY A LOW
RESOLUTION 060955Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO
REFLECT AN LLC THAT REMAINS TIGHT DESPITE THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.TC
11S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS.
HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION TO
THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE, FOR NOW, CONDUCIVE AT
28C. AS DUMAZILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SSTS TO COOL RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN ETT BY TAU 36 AND BY TAU 72 WILL
TRANSITION INTO A 40-KNOT COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH AN
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

.

METEO FRANCE La Réunion
trajectoire1

 

WTIO31 FMEE 061307
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :69 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 570 SE: 720 SO: 460 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 430 SO: 350 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
24H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
36H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
48H: 08/03/2018 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
60H: 09/03/2018 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 09/03/2018 12 UTC: 40.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2018 12 UTC: 51.0 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.5+
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A CLAIREMENT EVOLUE CET APRESMIDI
VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE ENCORE INCLUS EN
BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. EN SE BASANT SUR L’ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DU CMRS, L’INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 70 KT. EN L’ABSENCE
D’IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES RECENTE, LA POSITION ANALYSEE EST RELATIVEMENT
INCERTAINE.
L’EVOLUTION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE TRADUIT UNE AUGMENTATION
SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D’OUEST. L’IMAGERIE VAPEUR D’EAU SUGGERE
QUE LE SYSTEME INTERAGIT AVEC LE TALWEG D’ALTITUDE PRESENT DANS SON
SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE DES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES EN COURS DE NUIT
PROCHAINE.
LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN CONTOURNANT LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHÈRE. TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, IL
RESTE, JUSQU’EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, EN INTERACTION FAVORABLE AVEC UN
TALWEG D’ALTITUDE SITUE DANS SON SECTEUR OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS (COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION). A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL N’Y A PLUS DE PHASAGE AVEC LA
DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT
AVANT DE SE FONDRE DANS LA CIRCULATION D’OUEST. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. L’INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN FIN D’ECHEANCE,
QUAND LE SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D’OUEST EN
DIRECTION DE L’ILE DE KERGUELEN QUI POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE
DEGRADATION DU TEMPS EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 6 Mar, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DUMAZILE is currently located near 25.0 S 54.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DUMAZILE is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DUMAZILE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Reunion
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

201811s_01

Current Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

Other

 

(Above image: @wunderground)

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 061225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO MORE THAN 550 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 230
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 310 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
26.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

QIO26 FIMP 061245

1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

 

 

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII (S) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS, ISSUED ON TUESDAY 06 MARCH 2018 AT 1240 UTC.

 

 

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF GALE FORCE.

NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS TOGETHER

WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITH HEAVY SWELLS EXIST IN AREA BOUNDED

BY LATITUDES 20S TO 30S AND LONGITUDES 55E TO 63E.

STRONG GUST UNDER SQUALLS.

 

 

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS OBSERVED AT 1200 UTC ON TUESDAY 06 MARCH

2018.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ‘DUMAZILE’ 960 HPA WAS CENTERED NEAR 24.7 S AND 53.9

E MOVEMENT SOUTH SOUTH EASTERLY 08 KT.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05S 60E, 06S 66E, 07S 70E.

WAVE NEAR 11S 69E, 12S 93E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19S 56E, 23S 59E, 26S 57E INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE

‘DUMAZILE’.

ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 18S 59E, 22S 61E, 27S 58E INTO TROPICAL

CYCLONE ‘ DUMAZILE’

REMNANT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM AXIS ALONG 25S 73E, 24S 82E, 25S 90E.

HIGH 1029 HPA NEAR 38S 71E.

 

 

PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO WEDNESDAY 07 MARCH 2018 AT 1200

UTC.

 

 

WEST 8/1: AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

 

REMAINDER 8/1: EAST NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 GUSTING

30. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/2: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. SOUTH EASTERLY

TO EASTERLY 15-25 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE IN NORTH, ROUGH IN SOUTH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEM

AXIS, SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS

BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/3: CLOCKWISE 10-15 AROUND WAVE IN NORTH EAST. EASTERLY TO EAST

NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN REMAINING EAST. NORTH WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY

10-20 GUSTING 30 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE BECOMING ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY

ROUGH IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH WEST AND NORTH EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS

ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

 

 

8/4: VARIABLE 05-10 IN EXTREME NORTH. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY

10-20 ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME NORTH EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/5: NORTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY . SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

 

 

8/6: NORTHERLY TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 05 IN EAST. NORTH WESTERLY TO

WESTERLY 05-10 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY

MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/7: EAST NORTH EASTERLY BACKING TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 10-20. SEA

MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS

 

 

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

WIND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN REMAINING 8/1.=

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (WA) : Tropical Cyclone KELVIN 10S 181500Z position nr 20.6S 122.5E, moving SSE ~5.9kt (BoM) – Updated 18 Feb 2018 1715z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN (10S)

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin continues to weaken and is expected to weaken below cyclone strength on Monday morning. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h will ease over the next few hours – BoM

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 12 FEET – JTWC

 

bom_logo_clr

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin

Issued at 11:53 pm AWST Sunday 18 February 2018. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 33.

KELVIN NZ TRACK 18

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin continues to weaken and is expected to weaken below cyclone strength on Monday morning. Very heavy rain and destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h will ease over the next few hours.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Inland areas of the far eastern Pilbara, far northwest North Interior District and adjacent areas of the western Kimberley.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 11:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South, 122.5 degrees East , 125 kilometres north northeast of Telfer and 225 kilometres south southeast of Bidyadanga .
Movement: south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is weakening as it moves inland across the far east Pilbara as a category 2 tropical cyclone. Kelvin will weaken below cyclone strength during Monday morning as it continues to move inland and track towards the south southeast. Gales may persist in the eastern quadrants of the system till Tuesday morning.

Hazards:

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour and very heavy rainfall are likely to be occurring near the centre of the tropical cyclone in the far eastern Pilbara. DESTRUCTIVE winds will ease in the next few hours.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely over remaining parts of the far eastern Pilbara, far northwest North Interior District and adjacent areas of the western Kimberley. The area of GALES will move further inland, possibly as far as Telfer and Parnngurr early Monday morning if the system moves closer than expected. GALES should ease from Monday mid morning as the system weakens below tropical cyclone strength.

DAMAGING WINDS to 100 kilometres per hour may persist to the east of the system once it weakens below tropical cyclone intensity until Tuesday morning.

Heavy rainfall is likely to continue near the system over the far west Kimberley, far east Pilbara and western North Interior during Monday and Tuesday. Flood Watches and Warnings are current, please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near Telfer and Punmu need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR: People in communities in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Sandfire, including Sandfire are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Details:

Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 11 pm February 18 2 20.6S 122.5E 35
+6hr 5 am February 19 1 21.3S 122.7E 50
+12hr 11 am February 19 tropical low 22.1S 122.9E 70
+18hr 5 pm February 19 tropical low 22.9S 123.1E 95
+24hr 11 pm February 19 tropical low 23.8S 123.3E 120
+36hr 11 am February 20 tropical low 25.5S 123.6E 155
+48hr 11 pm February 20 tropical low 27.1S 124.2E 190
+60hr 11 am February 21 tropical low 28.9S 125.5E 230
+72hr 11 pm February 21 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Monday

ide00135-201802181530

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Kelvin) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 18/0300Z

sh10182

10s_180000sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
180000Z — NEAR 19.2S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 121.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 20.1S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 21.4S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 23.0S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z — 24.7S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 121.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD EYE WALL WITH DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME REVEALS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL INNER EYEWALL NOW POSITIONED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON RADAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 172219Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYAN RING SURROUNDING THE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF EIR
IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171913Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 10S
WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TOP OF TC 10S AS WELL. THIS
RESULTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 10S IS NOW OVER LAND AND SO IS NO
LONGER SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE SSTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE
LAND INTERACTION, TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGH
TAU 12 AS IS COMMONLY SEEN IN THIS REGION. TC 10S WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST AND STEADILY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated12

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN is currently located near 19.2 S 121.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). KELVIN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KELVIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lagrange (18.7 S, 121.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Broome (18.0 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Telfer (21.7 S, 122.2 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201810s2201810s_02

Current probability of Cat 1 or above wind at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT :

201810s_0g

Current probability of tropical storm winds at 18 Feb, 2018 0:00 GMT:

201810s_0f2

Other

si201810_5day2

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WOAU01 AMMC 181157
IDY21000
40:3:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
SECURITE
High Seas Weather Warning for METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC
At 1157UTC 18 February 2018

GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION AT 1200UTC
Vigorous westerly flow developing from 182100UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Bounded by 50S090E 50S080E 46S080E 47S086E 50S090E.

FORECAST
Westerly quarter winds 30/40 knots developing west of 083E by 182100UTC, and
extending throughout by 190600UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate swell.
================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines/ Vietnam: Tropical Depression SANBA 02W 131500Z position nr 9.2N 122.6E, WSW 15kt (JTWC) – Updated 13 Feb 2018 1522z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression SANBA (02W)

(BASYANG in Philippines)

“BASYANG” HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER DUMAGUETE CITY, NEGROS ORIENTAL AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS SULU SEA – PAGASA

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 15 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 02W (Sanba) Warning #20
Issued at 13/1500Z

wp0218102w_131200sair

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
131200Z — NEAR 9.2N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 123.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 9.1N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 9.1N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 9.6N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 10.3N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 11.1N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 11.3N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 122.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN

HIMAWARI Imagery

rb_lalo-animated3

Philippines

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #17
FOR:Tropical Depression Basyang
Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

ISSUED AT:11:00 PM, 13 February 2018

“BASYANG” HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER DUMAGUETE CITY, NEGROS ORIENTAL AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS SULU SEA

  • Scattered to widespread moderate to heavy rains will prevail in the next 24 hours over Palawan and Visayas. Meanwhile, scattered light to moderate with at times heavy rains is expected over Bicol Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the provinces of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi. Residents of these areas must continue monitoring for updates, take appropriate measures against possible flooding and landslides, and coordinate with their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
  • Sea travel remains risky over the seaboards of areas under Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS), as well as the seaboards of Northern Luzon and of Visayas, the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and of Mindanao, and the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon due to the Tropical Depression and the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.
  • Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) elsewhere are now lifted.

 

 

PAGASA Track Satellite Image

 

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “BASYANG” was estimated based on all available data at In the vicinity of Santa Catalina, Negros Oriental (09.3 °N, 123.0 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 60 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West Southwest at 26 kph
Forecast Positions:
  • 24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): In the vicinity of Quezon, Palawan(9.1°N, 117.9°E)
  • 48 Hour(Thursday evening):80 km South Southwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(10.4°N, 113.7°E)
  • 72 Hour(Friday evening): 430 km West Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(12.0°N, 110.3°E)

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao Impacts of the wind
#1
(30-60kph expected in 36 hrs)
Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo groups of islands Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Bohol, and Cebu Northern section of Misamis Occidental, and northern section of Zamboanga del Norte ->Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
->Light damage to medium to low risk structures
->Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
->Twigs of small trees may be broken.
->Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.

Vietnam

NCHMF

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
TC TRACKS
Track VN
TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

13 Tuesday, February 13, 2018 9.5 125 TS 65 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities

Local time (GMT+7)

Date

Position

Classification

Maximum sustained wind

13 Wednesday, February 14, 2018 9.2 119 8 65 km/hour
13 Thursday, February 15, 2018 9.5 115.5 8 65 km/hour
13 Friday, February 16, 2018 10.7 112.7 TD 56 km/hour
13 Saturday, February 17, 2018 11 110 Low 28 km/hour
Notes for the picture:
Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts
Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts
Possible passing areas of TC center
Past positions of TC
Forecast positions of TC
Past positions of TD
Forecast positions of TD
*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 PM Tuesday, February 13, 2018

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression SANBA is currently located near 9.2 N 123.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). SANBA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
    Bonobono (8.7 N, 117.6 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201802w1201802w_01

Other

wp201802

(Image: @underground)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

18021321

WWJP25 RJTD 131200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 966 HPA
AT 59N 165E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA ALMOST STATIONARY.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 1008 HPA AT 39N 162E
MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1010 HPA
AT 40N 118E NORTH CHINA MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 28N 128E EAST 25 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 162E TO 38N 167E 37N 171E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 162E TO 34N 158E 30N 152E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1802 SANBA (1802) 1004 HPA AT 09.2N 123.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Philippines

WTPH RPMM 130600

TTT WARNING 9

AT 0600 13 FEBRUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION {SANBA} (1802) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140600 ZERO NINE POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 150600 ONE ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX EAST AND AT 160600 ONE ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION PD

PAGASA

================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

New Caledonia/ Norfolk Island/ New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone FEHI 08P 292100Z nr 24.5S 163.9E, moving SSE 23Kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 Jan 2018 2212Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone FEHI 08P

New Caledonia, Norfolk Island & New Zealand be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET. – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 08P (Fehi) Warning #08
Issued at 29/2100Z

sh08182

08p_291800sair

 

WTPS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291800Z — NEAR 23.4S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 165 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 163.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 27.9S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 23 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 32.4S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 26 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 37.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 29 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 42.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DECREASING AND HIGHLY SHEARED DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY
291839Z GPM 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A
291235Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS) AND A MULTI-SENSOR SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI
HAS LIKELY COMPLETED TRANSITION TO A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. TC FEHI
CURRENTLY LIES UNDER STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER
ONLY MARGINAL (26-27 DEGREES C) SSTS. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION
INDICATES A STRONG WARM ANOMALY IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER, WITH A
WEAK WARM ANOMALY PRESENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SUPPORTING THE
ASSESSMENT THAT TC FEHI IS IN FACT SUB-TROPICAL. THE STRONG VWS IS
BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND
TAU 24. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSITY FROM TAU 24 TO 48,
AS IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME COMPLETELY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48, AS A 50
KNOT SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

logoimage

65660

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 292022 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI CENTRE 988HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7S 163.9E AT
291800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 21 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 06 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO SOUTHEAST OF PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES EAST OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO SOUTHEAST BY THE
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC APPROXIMATELY 45
NAUTICAL MILES FROM EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, GIVING DT=3.0 MET=2.5
AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING, 3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC 25.6S 164.2E MOV S AT 18 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC 28.7S 164.0E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 31.4S 164.4E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 34.6S 165.1E MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 302000 UTC.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Jan, 2018 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FEHI is currently located near 23.4 S 163.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). FEHI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 60% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Greymouth (42.5 S, 171.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Christchurch (43.5 S, 172.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Dunedin (45.9 S, 170.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Wellington (41.3 S, 174.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Invercargill (46.4 S, 168.4 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    New Plymouth (39.1 S, 174.1 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201808p1201808p_01

WEATHER UNDERGROUND

sp201808_5day

(Above image: @wunderground)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

GALE WARNING 023 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 291921 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI CENTRE 988HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7
SOUTH 163.9 EAST AT 291800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.7S 163.9E AT 291800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 21 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.6S 164.2E AT 300600 UTC
AND NEAR 28.7S 164.0E AT 301800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 020.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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