Madagascar/ Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone (21S) HELLEN 010300Z nr 17.2S 46.0E, moving SSE at 5 knots (JTWC) Overland Depression (RSMC La Reunion) – Updated 010414 0718z

Tropical Cyclone 21S Hellen

OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN) RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. (RSMC La Reunion)

ZCZC 073
WTIO30 FMEE 010013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/14/20132014
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-HELLEN)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/01 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
24H: 2014/04/02 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2014/04/02 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/04/03 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2014/04/03 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2014/04/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/05 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL ACTIVE CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TOTALLY VANISHED OVER MADAGASCAR. THE RESI
DUAL LLCC, OVERLAND, IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
ACCORDING TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A MOVEMENT WEST TO SOUTH
WESTWARD FOR THE RESIDUAL LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST TO N
ORTH-EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-BUILDING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE.
NONE OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, INCLUDING THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE PREVISION, FORECASTS A RE-
INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE LOW WILL COME BACK OVER SEA AND CROSS THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.
LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE RSMC LA REUNION UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Apr, 2014 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm HELLEN (21S) currently located near 17.0 S 46.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2114.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21S_312330sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HELLEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010000Z — NEAR 17.0S 46.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 46.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 17.7S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 46.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HELLEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) REVEALS THAT TC HELLEN HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME RAGGED AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED AWAY AND SHALLOWED. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION CONTINUE
TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TRACKING TC 21S BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH A CHANCE OF
REGENERATION WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE AFRICAN LANDMASS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING /

ZCZC 343
WTIO24 FMEE 311832 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2014
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2014 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INLAND 14 (EX-HELLEN) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 45.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UP TO 25 NM FROM
THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, INLAND
24H, VALID 2014/04/01 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

 

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/indian/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Indian Ocean/ Australia/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone Gillian 251200Z nr 20.4S 103.7E, moving S at 07 knots (TCWC Perth) Max winds 50 knots – Updated 250314 1805z

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Indian Ocean MH370 missing aircraft Search & Rescue assets be aware.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Issued at 8:37 pm WST Tuesday 25 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Gillian is moving steadily in a south to southwesterly direction, well away from the Australian mainland.

Gillian is continuing to weaken and should drop below tropical cyclone intensity Wednesday morning.

 

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 25 2 20.4S 103.7E 55
+6hr 2 am March 26 1 20.8S 103.4E 80
+12hr 8 am March 26 1 21.2S 103.3E 100
+18hr 2 pm March 26 tropical low 21.4S 103.1E 125
+24hr 8 pm March 26 tropical low 21.5S 102.7E 145
+36hr 8 am March 27 tropical low 21.3S 101.5E 180
+48hr 8 pm March 27 tropical low 21.2S 100.0E 220
+60hr 8 am March 28 tropical low 21.2S 98.0E 255
+72hr 8 pm March 28 tropical low 21.0S 96.7E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

 

 

(Goaty: See information on Tropical cyclone intensity)

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 20:07 WIB 25/03/2014

Siklon Tropis GILLIAN

Kondisi tanggal 25/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 20.4LS, 103.7BT (sekitar 1620 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : selatan, kecepatan 7 knots (13 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 26/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.5LS, 102.7BT (sekitar 1760 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : Barat, bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 27/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.2LS, 100.0BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 20 knots (35 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 28/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.0LS, 96.7BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 15 knots (30 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis GILLIAN ini memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Gelombang laut 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Enggano – Bengkulu, Perairan barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is issued by JAKARTA CENTRE
In : 20:07 pm 03/25/2014
 

Tropical Cyclone Gillian 

Conditions dated 25/03/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 20.4LS , 103.7BT ( approximately 1620 miles south southwest of New York)
Motion direction : south , speed of 7 knots ( 13 km / h ) moving away from the territory of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed ​​: 50 knots ( 95 km / h )
 

Predicted 24- hour , date 03/26/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.5LS , 102.7BT ( approximately 1760 miles south southwest of New York)
Motion Direction : West , moving away from the territory of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 30 knots ( 55 km / h )
 

Prediction 48 hours , date 03/27/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.2LS , 100.0BT
Motion Direction : West moving away from parts of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 20 knots ( 35 km / h )
 

Prediction 72 hours , date 03/28/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.0LS , 96.7BT
Motion Direction : West moving away from parts of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 15 knots ( 30 km / h )
 

IMPACT OF WEATHER IN INDONESIA :
Gillian tropical cyclone is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as :
– Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters Enggano – Bengkulu , Lampung western waters , the southern part of the Sunda Strait , waters south of Banten

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1714.gif

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_250532sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 19.6S 103.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 103.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 20.4S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 20.7S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 103.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 250532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 250519Z AMSR2 PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 17P IS
CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:20S104E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1241UTC 25 MARCH 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Gillian was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal four south (20.4S)
longitude one hundred and three decimal seven east (103.7E)
Recent movement : south at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 988 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semi circle, extending
to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0600 UTC 26
March.

Winds above 48 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell until 1200 UTC 25 March.

Winds above 34 knots within 30 nautical miles of the centre in the northwest
quadrant, extending to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other
quadrants, with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell until 0600
UTC 26 March.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.2 south 103.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 21.5 south 102.7 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 March 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

METAREA XI

METAREA X

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com/maps/oceania/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Philippines: Tropical Depression “CALOY” (94W) 211200Z nr 08N 128E, moving W slowly (JMA) – Published 210314 2128z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” 

(Invest 94W)

PHILIPPINES: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SURIGAO DEL NORTE (PAGASA)

WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY”
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 21 MARCH 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION “CALOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SURIGAO DEL NORTE.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “CALOY” was estimated based on all available data at 160 km East of Surigao City (9.6°N, 127.0°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 45 kph near the center.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 15 kph.

Forecast Positions: Tropical Depression “CALOY” is expected to be at 50 km South Southeast of Cebu City by tomorrow evening and at 25 km South of Cuyo Island by Sunday evening. By Monday evening, it is expected to be at 200 km North Northwest of Puerto Princesa City.

PSWS#1(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours)

Visayas:Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Cebu, Negros Provinces, Guimaras, Iloilo and Antique

Mindanao:Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte incl. Siargao, Dinagat, Northern Agusan del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental and Camiguin
Potential Impacts of the Winds

•Twigs and branches of trees may be broken
•Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
•Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
•Some nipa and cogon houses may be partially unroofed
•Sea travel of small seacrafts and fishing boats is risky

•Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lifted.
•Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 – 15 mm per hour (moderate – heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
•Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Eastern Visayas due to the Northeast Monsoon.
•The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

For more information and queries, please call at telephone numbers 927-1335 and 927-2877 or log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Japan Meteorological agency


Analysis Chart (JMA) (Click image for animation/source)

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 968 HPA
AT 43N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 150E TO 45N 153E 43N 156E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 39N 161E 34N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 35N 155E 28N 147E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 46N 154E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 49N 157E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 49N 180E EAST 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 31N 120E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 177E ESE 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Depression Caloy Over the Southern Philippines

– WxPacWx

Rainfall Outlook

Rainfall Outlook

“Tropical Depression Caloy was named Friday morning by PAGASA following a night of organization and intensification from the

TD Caloy

low pressure center in the Philippine Sea.

Despite this storm being branded a name (the third PAGASA named storm already in 2014) the forecast has changed very little from what we have been discussing all week.

Expect the low to come ashore in Northern Mindanao throughout the weekend but based on IR satellite imagery a unskilled observer might think Visayas is seeing landfall.

That is because of the large moisture inflow in to the storm along Caloys northern Periphery. This will mean the highest risk areas for flooding, landslides and high winds will be north of the storms track in the areas displayed in red blow.

Caloy1 Click the Link for a Full Bulletin Update

Futhermore gale force winds are anticipated up and down the eastern seaboards of the Philippines this coming weekend. Not directly associated with Caloy though but associated with Caloys interaction with a ridging high pressure area pushing in out of China. This is producing a “high gradient induced wind field”. Winds sustained up and down the coastline are likely to be around 50kph. Even in Manila farther north expect breezy conditions this weekend.

Impacts

Impacts

The rain will be the larger impact though from the storm though. Some areas as much as 500mm could fall with generally 100-200mm in the forecast. As mentioned before there is a risk of flooding and landslides in these conditions. Residents in low lying areas and near large rivers should take extra caution with this weekend as persistent rains push on shore.

The video update below is a whole 1 minute long, why? Because my internet cut out and never came back on. So you got what you got right there…

Stay safe out there everyone” – //westernpacificweather.com

NASA’s Aqua satellite sees Tropical System 94W affecting Philippines – phys.org

NASA's Aqua satellite sees Tropical System 94W affecting Philippines
The MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this visible image of low pressure “System 94W” coming together east of the southern Philippines on March 21. Credit: NRL/NASA(via phys.org)

“The tropical low pressure area centered just east of the southern Philippines appeared more organized on visible imagery from NASA’s Aqua satellite on March 21. System 94W appears to be developing and the Philippine authorities have already issued warnings on the system locally designated as “Caloy.”

The MODIS instrument (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of System 94W coming together east of the southern Philippines on March 21 at 5:25 UTC/1:25 a.m. EDT. The image revealed a circulation with the center over the open waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The image showed bands of thunderstorms from System 94W’s western quadrant was draped over the eastern Mindanao region (southern area) of the Philippines and bands of thunderstorms from the storm were over the waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean.

Warnings were posted by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on March 21 at 5 p.m. Signal No. 1 is in effect for parts of the Visayas and Mindanao regions of the Philippines today, March 21.

Signal No. 1 means that sustained winds of 18.6-37.2 mph/30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours. In Visayas, those areas under Signal No. 1 include: Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, the southern part of Negros Occidental and the southern part of Negros Oriental.

In Mindanao, Signal No. 1 is in effect for Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, the southern part of Negros Occidental, and the southern part of Negros Oriental. For additional updates from PAGASA, please visit: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph//

On March 21 at 5 p.m. local time, PAGASA noted that the center of System 94W was located near 8.9 north latitude and 127.8 east longitude, about 310 km/192.6 miles northeast of Davao City or at 170 km/105.6 miles East Northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives System 94W a high chance for developing into a tropical depression in the next day. Meanwhile, PAGASA expects the low to move to the west-northwest over the next couple of days and cross the southern Philippines.” –

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9414.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 130.8E TO 8.7N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201841Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 191304Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS,
PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212200Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

WTPH RPMM 211200
TTT WARNING 04

AT 1200 21 MARCH TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED AT ZERO NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221200 ZERO NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST AT 231200 ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 241200 ONE ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD

WEATHER MANILA

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_JAPAN / 1800

WWJP25 RJTD 211800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 964 HPA
AT 45N 152E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 152E TO 47N 156E 45N 160E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 41N 165E 37N 168E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 36N 158E 30N 152E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 48N 156E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 51N 159E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 30N 122E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 180E EAST 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_HONG_KONG_CHINA / 1800

WWHK82 VHHH 211800
40:1:31:11:01:00
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGS
GALES OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.
SYNOPSIS (211800UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
THE INTENSE NORTHEAST MONSOON IS BRINGING GALES TO THE
WARNING AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SEAS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS 6 M OVER THE WARNING AREAS.
SWELL NE 3 M OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SCS AND SEAS NEAR LUZON.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
SCATTERED SQUALLY (SQ) SHOWERS (SH) AND THUNDERSTORMS (TS)
OVER SEAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PHILIPPINES.
ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER THE STRAIT OF MALACCA.
SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Melanesia/Fiji/Cook Islands: Tropical Cyclone MIKE 191800Z nr 24.6S 158.4W, moving SE at 22 knots – Updated 190314 1905z

Tropical Cyclone MIKE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone MIKE

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 70 issued 1407 UTC Wednesday 19 March 2014

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone MIKE

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm March 19 1 22.2S 157.7W 110
+6hr 6 pm March 19 1 23.3S 157.4W 140
+12hr 12 am March 20 1 24.3S 157.7W 165
+18hr 6 am March 20 1 25.2S 158.2W 195
+24hr 12 pm March 20 1 26.1S 158.7W 220
+36hr 12 am March 21 2 28.2S 159.8W 280
+48hr 12 pm March 21 2 30.2S 160.7W 345
+60hr 12 am March 22 1 32.2S 160.9W 430
+72hr 12 pm March 22 1 34.5S 161.1W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 19/1355 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE 990HPA CAT1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2S
157.7W AT 191200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 360 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 2.5,
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 24.3S 157.7W MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 26.1S 158.7W MOV SSW AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 28.2S 159.8W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 30.2S 160.7W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 192000 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY TWO for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 19/1846 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR
TAKUTEA, ATIU, MATIARO AND MAUKE.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOK
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE [990HPA] CAT1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24
DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 158 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 160 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 220 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA
AT 191800UTC. CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22
KNOTS. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF MANGAIA AT 200600UTC.

FOR MANGAIA:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 35 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING
INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE WILL BE ISSUED AT 192200 UTC OR EARLIER.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2014.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/20P_190532sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001   
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
190600Z — NEAR 20.5S 159.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 159.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 23.5S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 25.4S 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 27.1S 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 29.5S 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 159.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN
DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 190422Z 37
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC THAT IT
FAIRLY COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR ANIMATION
AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE
SEEN IN THE SSMIS IMAGE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WIDELY
RANGE FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC MIKE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST. NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE WHILE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THESE FACTORS WILL ADDITIONALLY BEGIN TO
TURN THE SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE STRONGER WINDS
MIGRATE TO THE PERIPHERY AND THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS BECOME WEAK. BY
TAU 48, TC 20P WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM INTO A COLD
CORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY
SPREAD BUT OVERALL AGREES WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN
FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190230Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190230).//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Mar, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MIKE (20P) currently located near 20.5 S 159.3 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Avarua (21.2 S, 159.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

Pacific High Seas Forecast

Issued by MetService, NZ, at 8:36pm Wednesday 19 Mar 2014 (Local Time)

Forecast valid to 1:00am Friday 21 Mar 2014: Slow moving ridge 42S 170W 41S 152W 30S 140W 30S 120W. North of ridge of west of 140W: Southeast quarter 25kt, with gales as in warnings 320 and 324, heavy easterly swells developing west of 150W after 191200UTC, and poor visibility in rain west of 150W spreading south to 32S by 201200UTC. Low 1003hPa near 40S 127W moving southsoutheast 15kt.Within 480 nautical miles of low: Clockwise winds 25kt, with gales as in warning 318, and poor visibility in rain at times in sector from north through east to west.Front 49S 163W 54S 154W 58S 143W moving eastnortheast 25kt.Southwest of front:Southwest 25kt developing after 191800UTC. Areas of fog south of 45S and west of 160W.

Outlook following 72 hours

Tropical Cyclone Mike near 30S 165W southsouthwest. Clockwise 35 to 45kt about cyclone with heavy swells. Ridge along 40S moving slowly south.North of ridge, Easterly quarter 20 to 30kt tending clockwise and rising to gale about cyclone. South of ridge, westerly quarter 20 to 30kt. Heavy northeast swell east of 130W and south 40S, easing by 211200UTC.

GALE WARNING 325
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 191200UTC
Low 998hPa near 42S 126W moving south 10kt.
In a belt 240 nautical miles wide centred on a line 48S 120W 44S 128W 40S 127W: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving southwest 10kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 318.

Issued at 1:45am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

GALE WARNING 327
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 191200UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
In an area bounded by 25S 169W 25S 151W 30S 155W 30S 163W 29S 169W 25S 169W: Easterly 35kt.
Gale area slow moving.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 320.

Issued at 1:45am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 331
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Copy of GALE WARN issued by NADI at 19-Mar-2014 13:17 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone MIKE [990hPa] centre was located near 22.2 South 157.7 West at 191200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 22.2S 157.7W at 191200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 22 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the northwest
quadrant and within 360 nautical miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 24.3S 157.7W at 200000 UTC
and near 26.1S 158.7W at 201200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 324.

Issued at 2:27am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Zealand: LOW 991hPa Ex-Tropical #Cyclone 18F Lusi 151200Z nr 37S 171E, moving S at 15 kts. Expected to cross South Island overnight Sunday (RSMC Wellington) – Updated 150314 1442z

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi

Expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday (RSMC Wellington)

New Zealand be aware!

Tropical Cyclone Lusi

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.

ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:27 pm 15-Mar-2014

Ex-cyclone Lusi continues to bring heavy rain and easterly gales to many places this weekend, but conditions are improving over the upper North Island tonight.

A depression – formerly Tropical Cyclone Lusi – lies west of Northland this evening and is expected to be centred about 300km west of Auckland at midnight tonight. The low will then move southwards to cross the upper South Island Sunday evening. Widespread rain and easterly gales are spreading southwards, but have eased in Northland this evening. The heaviest falls this afternoon and evening have been in Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne, but although still heavy, the rain there is slowly easing. The heaviest falls tonight and during Sunday are forecast for the upper South Island, where the ranges of Nelson could see up to 200mm of rain.

Warnings for heavy rain or severe gales are still in place from Auckland to north Otago. Please note, that a warning for heavy northwesterly rain is now in place for Buller.

As the low crosses the upper South Island Sunday night, northwest gales are forecast to affect central New Zealand, and warnings are in place for Marlborough, Wellington, and Wairarapa south of Masterton. Gusts could reach 130km/h from Sunday evening to early Monday morning.

This continues to be a significant adverse weather event, affecting many parts of the country. The heavy rain is likely to cause slips and surface flooding, and the severe easterly gales could make driving hazardous, lift roofs, and bring down trees and powerlines. People are strongly advised to exercise caution, and to stay up to date with the latest forecasts, Warnings and Watches.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty west of Kawerau

FORECAST

Heavy rain continues to fall. In the 12 hours from 8pm today to 8am Sunday, expect a further 50-60mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Gisborne and eastern Bay of Plenty

FORECAST

Heavy rain has set in. In the 16 hours from 8pm today to noon Sunday, expect 80 to 100mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour this evening (Saturday).

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Hawkes Bay

FORECAST

Heavy rain has set in. In the 12 hours from 8pm Saturday to 8am Sunday, expect a further 60 to 90mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 15-20mm per hour this evening (evening).

AREA/S AFFECTED

All of Nelson

FORECAST

Heavy easterly rain has set in this evening. The flow should turn north to northwesterly during Sunday. In the 34 hours from 8pm Saturday to 6am Monday, expect 150 to 200mm of rain to accumulate in the ranges and about 100mm over the Tasman Bay lowlands.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3500 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Marlborough, including the Kaikoura Ranges

FORECAST

Heavy easterly rain is forecast to set in this evening (Saturday), then later Sunday the flow should turn northwest. In the 24 hours from 9pm today to 9pm Sunday, expect 120 to 150mm of rain to accumulate.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 4000 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Hills and coastal ranges of South Canterbury and North Otago

FORECAST

Strong northeasterlies and rain are forecast for South Canterbury and North Otago through most of Sunday, easing late evening. In the 18 hours from 3am to 9pm Sunday expect 70 to 100mm on the coastal hills and ranges. During this time 30 to 50mm rain is likely on the coastal lowlands.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Buller north of Westport

FORECAST

Rain is forecast to become heavy Sunday afternoon, as northeast winds turn strong northwesterly. In the 12 hours from 3pm Sunday till 3am Monday, expect 80-120mm of rain to accumulate about the ranges. Peak intensities of 15-25mm/hr Sunday evening.

FREEZING LEVEL: 3500 metres.

STRONG WIND WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Auckland

FORECAST

Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening with gusts of 120 km/h. Winds should gradually ease tonight.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The Kaimai Range, and Waikato near the Kaimais, including Thames

FORECAST

Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening, with gusts of 130 km/h in exposed places. Winds should ease tonight.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Marlborough Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton

FORECAST

Northwest winds are expected to rise to gale in exposed parts of Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton Sunday evening. From about 8pm Sunday to 6am Monday severe gales are expected with gusts of 130 km/h.

WARNINGS NO LONGER IN FORCE

HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland

Heavy rain is easing this evening, and the warning has been lifted.

STRONG WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland

Winds have eased and the warning has been lifted.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 am Sunday 16-Mar-2014

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 2:09pm Saturday 15 Mar 2014
Valid from Monday 17 March 2014 to Thursday 20 March 2014

Cyclone Lusi is expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday, then move away to the east and weaken on Monday. Warnings and Watches are in force for many regions.

On Monday, as Lusi moves eastwards, northwest gales are likely in parts of central New Zealand. Warnings are already in place for Marlborough, Wellington and southern Wairarapa for Sunday evening to Monday morning, hence high confidence is indicated in those areas, and there is moderate confidence of severe northwest gales in parts of Canterbury too. The trend, however, is for winds to ease during Monday.

The moist northwest winds also bring continued rain for northern Westland,Buller and northwest Nelson, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in these areas through Monday morning.

From about midday Monday, a new front moves onto the lower South Island,bringing more heavy rain, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in Fiordland and Westland from Monday into Tuesday.

Finally, a second front should reach Fiordland later on Wednesday, and at this stage we have low confidence of rainfall totals meeting warning criteria there.

map showing severe weather outlook

Low confidence:
a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence:
a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30NZST

You can view the latest Severe Weather Video update here: http://metservice.com/tv/#severe

Please stay up to date with all the latest Severe Warnings and Watches

(All images in this section: metservice.com) (Click on images to link to source)

Press Reports

Australia Network News

Strong wind warnings in place in New Zealand as ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi passes North Island

 

Photo: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi brings strong and gale force winds to New Zealand’s North Island, March 15, 2014. (MetService)

 

New Zealand’s weather bureau has issued strong wind and gale force wind warnings as ex-tropical cyclone Lusi moves over the North Island.

The Met Service says wind gusts of around 130 kilometres an hour have been recorded at Cape Reinga, on the northwest tip of the North Island.

Auckland has experienced wind gusts of almost 90 kilometres an hour.

There have also been heavy rainfalls overnight on the North Island, and warnings are in place for the South Island as the depression moves south.

The weather system is expected to cross the South Island on Sunday then weaken as it moves east on Monday.

So far, 10 people have died and two are missing in Vanuatu after Cyclone Lusi hit the Pacific nation.

Shadrack Welegtabit, the director of the National Disaster Management Office in Port Vila says another tropical low is forming in the east of the country.

While it is developing, it is not expected to become a cyclone soon.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says cyclone Lusi caused widespread flooding and damaged crops.

ABC/AFP

MARITIME

New Zealand

Coastal Storm Warnings

Storm warnings for: CASTLEPOINT, CONWAY, COOK

Coastal Gale Warnings

Gale warnings for: ABEL, BRETT, CHALMERS, COLVILLE, GREY, KAIPARA, PLENTY, PORTLAND, RAGLAN, RANGITATA, STEPHENS

Auckland VHF

GALE WARNING A23 FOR MANUKAU AND WAITEMATA HARBOURS, AND THE HAURAKI GULF
Northeast 35 knots gusting 45 knots easing to northerly 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning and below advisory criteria this afternoon.
GALE WARNING A23 FOR BREAM HEAD TO CAPE COLVILLE
Northeast 40 knots gusting 50 knots easing to northerly 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning and below advisory criteria this afternoon.
This warning cancels and replaces ADVISORY A20

Oceanic Warnings

High seas warnings for: FORTIES, PACIFIC, SOUTHERN, SUBTROPIC

METAREA XIV

PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK: Massive blaze at the Assembly Rooms, Derby – Updated 140314 2148z

Derbyshire Fire & Rescue Service are attending a massive blaze at the Assembly Rooms, Derby – they have 10 pumps +4 alps in attendance – they request people avoid the area

The Fire Service will be there for considerable time dealing with a fire which looks to have started in the plant room

Update 2148z:

Fire Brigade update 2139z: We will be scaling down operations at assembly rooms shortly,however will have a presence all night. Fire investigation to commence tomorrow.

The car park is currently closed following this evenings incident. If your car is in the assembly rooms car park you will not be able to enter the car park this evening & will not be able to access your car. The car park will be secure overnight vehicles will be safe. We hope you will be able to access your car tomorrow (sat 15/3) from 12 noon.please call the Carelink team to confirm details on 01332 642201. If you incur expense as a result of your car being kept overnight at the Assembly Rooms then please keep a receipt & the council will reimburse you. There will be no charge for your car being in the car park. – @DerbyshireFRS

Events cancelled: Assembly Rooms announce more event cancellations. http://t.co/qvr16iR7Vv

News Reports

BBC

Derby fire: Smoke seen from Assembly Rooms car park

Assembly Rooms car park Witnesses have reported seeing “large, thick, black smoke” in the skies above the city

A large fire has caused roads to be shut off in the centre of Derby.

Firefighters were called to tackle the blaze on the top floor of the Assembly Rooms car park in Market Place shortly before 18:00 GMT.

Derbyshire Fire and Rescue Service said 10 fire engines were at the scene and asked people to avoid the area because traffic delays have built up with the road closures.

Witnesses have reported seeing “large, thick, black plumes of smoke”.

Full Street is also closed between Sowter Road and Corporation Street.

BBC Radio Derby reporter Wesley Malin, who is at the scene, said it is believed the fire started in a room of the multi-storey car park where machinery is kept.

He said debris was also falling from the car park.

Derbyshire Police said they had widened the cordon with the danger of vehicles in the car park “exploding”.

A force representative said officers were in the process of evacuating nearby buildings.

Derby Live confirmed that dancer Anton Du Beke’s show, which had been scheduled for the Assembly Rooms on Friday night, had been cancelled.

Assembly Rooms car park BBC Radio Derby reporter Wesley Malin said debris could be seen falling from the car park

Massive blaze at Assembly Rooms car park in Derby – Derby Telegraph

“A LARGE fire has broken out at the top of the Assembly Rooms car park in Derby.

Three fire crews are on scene and are currently using water from the Derwent to tackle the blaze.

Fire fighters have been moved away from the scene due to the ferocity of the flames.

It appears the whole of the top floor of the Assembly Rooms car park is on fire.

Thick, acrid black smoke is filling the air as well as 30-40 foot flames.

The flames appear to be spreading quickly to the top of the Assembly Rooms itself.

Explosions have also been heard at the scene.

Joey Severn, a reporter at the scene has spoken to someone who works at the car park.

He said there are materials on the top of the car park which are hazardous and potentially explosive.

Joey added: “They are pumping water from the river up to the appliances next to the Assembly Rooms, the aerial platform is out however firefighters have been moved away due to the ferocity of the flames.

“The fire’s getting worse and there are fire tornadoes running along the edge of the building.” – derbytelegraph.co.uk

Video: http://bcove.me/flaulkfx

Video

Assembly Rooms fire, Derby City Centre

(Video credit: Chris Doidge) Taken at 6pm, 14/03/14

Derby assembly rooms fire

(Video credit: pedges77)