Tropical Storm Talim 20W
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET – JTWC
(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Tropical Storm 20W (Talim) Warning #36
Issued at 17/1500Z
WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 34.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 134.4E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 39.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 44.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
SOURCE: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/
Issued at 14:45 UTC, 17 September 2017
<Analysis at 14 UTC, 17 September> | |
Scale | Large |
Intensity | – |
Center position | N35°20′ (35.3°) |
E135°40′ (135.7°) | |
Direction and speed of movement | NE 60 km/h (32 kt) |
Central pressure | 980 hPa |
Maximum sustained wind speed | 30 m/s (60 kt) |
Maximum wind gust speed | 45 m/s (85 kt) |
≥ 50 kt wind area | SE 190 km (100 NM) |
NW 130 km (70 NM) | |
≥ 30 kt wind area | ALL 500 km (270 NM) |
<Estimate for 15 UTC, 17 September> | |
Scale | Large |
Intensity | – |
Center position | N35°40′ (35.7°) |
E136°05′ (136.1°) | |
Direction and speed of movement | NE 60 km/h (32 kt) |
Central pressure | 980 hPa |
Maximum sustained wind speed | 30 m/s (60 kt) |
Maximum wind gust speed | 45 m/s (85 kt) |
≥ 50 kt wind area | SE 190 km (100 NM) |
NW 130 km (70 NM) | |
≥ 30 kt wind area | ALL 500 km (270 NM) |
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 September> | |
Intensity | – |
Center position of probability circle | N40°40′ (40.7°) |
E139°25′ (139.4°) | |
Direction and speed of movement | NNE 60 km/h (33 kt) |
Central pressure | 975 hPa |
Maximum sustained wind speed | 30 m/s (60 kt) |
Maximum wind gust speed | 45 m/s (85 kt) |
Radius of probability circle | 70 km (40 NM) |
Storm warning area | NE 410 km (220 NM) |
SW 220 km (120 NM) | |
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 September> | |
Intensity | – |
LOW | |
Center position of probability circle | N45°50′ (45.8°) |
E142°35′ (142.6°) | |
Direction and speed of movement | NNE 50 km/h (28 kt) |
Central pressure | 970 hPa |
Maximum sustained wind speed | 30 m/s (60 kt) |
Maximum wind gust speed | 45 m/s (85 kt) |
Radius of probability circle | 150 km (80 NM) |
Storm warning area | E 600 km (325 NM) |
W 370 km (200 NM) | |
TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT
Tropical Storm TALIM is currently located near 34.1 N 134.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). TALIM is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Russian Federation
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kanazawa (36.8 N, 136.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asahikawa (43.8 N, 142.4 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Sapporo (43.1 N, 141.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Aomori (40.8 N, 140.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Akita (39.8 N, 140.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (47.0 N, 142.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Russia
17.9.2017 16:00 | Day 18 September with saving until the end of the day in the Kaliningrad region, heavy rain is expected to wind up to 25 m/s.
17.9.2017 12:00 | On the night of September 18 in the Orenburg region expected freezing on soil (temperature to -2°).
16.9.2017 22:00 | Day 17 September and the first half of the night 18 September in the Irkutsk region precipitation (rain, wet snow), wind 18-23 m/s, storms, the establishment of a temporary snow cover.
16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in the South Kuril and Kuril regions expected strong winds up to 35-40 m/s (hurricane), strong, sometimes very heavy rain (15-49 mm, 50 mm or more for 12:00).
16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 September in southern Sakhalin and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is expected to be very heavy rain (30 mm for 12:00), wind 25-30 m/s, gusts of 33-38 m/s (hurricane); 19 September in rivers podjomy water levels on the sharp 0.5 m -1.0.
16.9.2017 07:00 | 18 and 19 September night in the East of Primorsky Krai expected places heavy rain (15-45 mm for 12:00 or less), wind 15-20 m/s, on the coast with gusts up to 28 m/s.
“In Monday, when Typhoon Talim will move along the western coast of Japan on water area of the sea of Japan, it will have an impact on the weather, the eastern half of the Primorski Krai. Rains of varying intensity, on the East coast of possible heavy rains and strong winds to the 20-25 m/s.
Ex-Talim will bring on Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands rain and wind up to 15-20 m/s In the zone Tuesday spread to Northern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. In Thursday afternoon in the southern area of the wind will die down, the Northern Islands will still windy.” – Russian National Forecaster (link)
MARITIME/SHIPPING
METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800
WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1718 TALIM (1718) 975 HPA
AT 34.4N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.7N 139.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 45.8N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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