Australia/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone Frances (29U, 17S) 27/1200Z nr 11.0S 128.3E, moving WSW 10 kt (Darwin TCWC) – Published 27 Apr 2017 1506z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Frances (29U, 17S)

Intensity Category 1 Cyclone Frances is moving southwest across the Timor Sea tonight and is slowly intensifying (BOM NT TCWC)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000ZIS 10 FEET (JTWC)

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2

Issued at 10:54 pm ACST [9:24 pm AWST] on Thursday 27 April 2017

Headline:

Category 1 Cyclone Frances is moving southwest across the Timor Sea tonight and is slowly intensifying.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Kuri Bay to Wyndham, not including Wyndham.

Watch Zone

None.

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Frances at 9:30 pm ACST [8:00 pm AWST]:

Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.0 degrees South 128.3 degrees East, estimated to be 235 kilometres west of Pirlangimpi and 410 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu.

Movement: west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Frances is expected to intensify as it moves southwest through the Timor Sea tonight, possibly developing into a Category 2 system early on Friday. The cyclone is expected to remain over water as it heads towards the Indian Ocean, however If it takes a more southerly track peripheral gales may affect the north Kimberley coast later on Friday.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Wyndham, not including Wyndham, later on Friday.

Tides between Kalumburu and Wyndham are likely to rise above normal high tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.

People in the Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.

People between Kuri Bay and Wyndham should listen for the next advice.

People needing DFES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000.

For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au.

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am ACST Friday 28 April [12:30 am AWST Friday 28 April].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

=================================================================================

IDJ21031
CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS AND METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) In Jakarta
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued by the TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA
In: 17:05 EST 27/04/2017
Tropical Cyclone FRANCES
The condition of the date 27/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:
Position: 10, 1LS, 129, 4BT (about 630 km east of Kupang)
The direction of motion: West-Southwest, the speed of 8 knots (15 km/h) and move towards the region of Indonesia
Speed
Maximum wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
24-hour predictions, date 28/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:
Position: 11, 2LS, 126, 6BT (about 340 km east southeast of Kupang)
The direction of motion: moving away from the southwestern region of Indonesia
Speed
Wind maximum: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Prediction of 48 hours, the date of 29/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:
Position: 12, 2LS, 123, 5BT
The direction of motion: moving away from the southwestern region of Indonesia
Speed
Wind maximum: 40 knots (75 km/h)
72 hours predictions, date 30/04/2017 at 13:00 PM EST:
Position: 13, 0LS, 121, 0BT
The direction of motion: moving away from the southwestern region of Indonesia
Speed
Maximum: wind 20 knots (35 km/h)
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
Tropical cyclone FRANCES gave impact on weather conditions in the region of Indonesia in the form of:
Rain with medium intensity up to thick on the territory of NTT and the southern and Southeast Maluku.
Waves with a height of 1.252.5 meters in territorial waters south of Sumba, Bali Strait, Lombok Strait, Selat Alas southern waters of the island of Savu sea, Savu sea, Southern Ocean Waters up to Sermata Islands Sea, Arafuru Leti Central and Eastern parts, and the Indian Ocean south of the NTB.
Waves with a height of 2.5-4 meters in territorial waters south of Kupang, Timor Sea, Arafuru Sea and parts of the West.
IDJ21031
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 17:05 WIB 27/04/2017

Siklon Tropis FRANCES

Kondisi tanggal 27/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 10,1LS, 129,4BT (sekitar 630 km sebelah timur Kupang)
Arah Gerak : barat barat daya, kecepatan 8 knots (15 km/jam) bergerak menuju wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 35 knots (65 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 28/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 11,2LS, 126,6BT (sekitar 340 km sebelah timur tenggara Kupang)
Arah Gerak : Barat daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 55 knots (100 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 29/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 12,2LS, 123,5BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 40 knots (75 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 30/04/2017 pukul 13:00 WIB :
Posisi : 13,0LS, 121,0BT
Arah Gerak : Barat daya bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 20 knots (35 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis FRANCES memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Hujan dengan intensitas sedang hingga lebat di wilayah NTT dan Maluku bagian selatan dan Tenggara.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 1.25 – 2.5 meter di wilayah Perairan selatan Sumba, Selat Bali, Selat Lombok, Selat Alas bagian selatan, Perairan Pulau Sawu, Laut Sawu bagian selatan, Perairan Kepulauan Sermata hingga Leti, Laut Arafuru bagian tengah dan timur, dan Samudera Hindia selatan NTB.
– Gelombang dengan ketinggian 2.5 – 4 meter di wilayah Perairan selatan Kupang, Laut Timor, dan Laut Arafuru bagian barat.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260251ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
270000Z — NEAR 9.6S 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 130.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 10.2S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 10.8S 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 11.6S 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 12.2S 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 13.0S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 13.4S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 129.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TS) 17S (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 270102Z ASCAT BULLSEYE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 35
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER PASS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 17S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS
WESTWARD. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE AND LEAD TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS. THIS DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260300).//
NNNN

S Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 27 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANCES is currently located near 10.9 S 128.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). FRANCES is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kalumburu (14.2 S, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA10 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_DARWIN / 1339

WTAU03 ADRM 271339 RRB
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
AT 1200 UTC 28 APRIL: WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.8 SOUTH 124.7
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA.
WINDS TO 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO NTTCWC.BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO
+6189203829
OR SATELLITE USING SAC1241 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION BURUM 312 .OR
212 AS
APPROPRIATE. VIA PERTH.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1930 UTC 27 APRIL 2017.

DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA – NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1404 UTC 27/04/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Frances
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 128.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [241 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/1800: 11.2S 127.4E: 040 [080]: 050 [095]: 993
+12: 28/0000: 11.5S 126.4E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 992
+18: 28/0600: 11.7S 125.6E: 065 [125]: 055 [100]: 990
+24: 28/1200: 11.8S 124.7E: 080 [145]: 055 [100]: 990
+36: 29/0000: 12.4S 122.9E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 996
+48: 29/1200: 12.8S 121.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 1000
+60: 30/0000: 13.1S 120.3E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 1002
+72: 30/1200: 13.2S 119.3E: 155 [290]: 025 [045]: 1005
+96: 01/1200: 13.2S 118.1E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1004
+120: 02/1200: 12.8S 116.7E: 290 [535]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
The 12Z position of Tropical Cyclone Frances was made with reasonable confidence
based on recent microwave passes and infra-red imagery.

Intensity was based on a shear pattern with low level centre having moved
underneath the dense overcast, giving a DT of 3.5. Development over the last 24
hours has been D+, giving a MET of 3.0, PAT of 3.0 with Final T at 3.0. Ascat
pass at 0103 UTC indicated winds of 30-35 knots on the southern side.

The cyclone is located in a moist environment in a diffluent upper-level outflow
pattern just north of the upper level ridge. This is creating strong upper-level
divergence with twin outflow channels seen in recent satellite imagery. Earlier
in the day the system moved into a more favourable low shear environment. This,
in conjunction with the arrival of a strong east to southeasterly surge from a
developing ridge over Australia, has sustained continued development of the
cyclone.

Model consensus suggest the cyclone will move towards the southwest over the
next few days due to mid level ridges located to the south and east. On this
southwesterly track, the system is expected to remain in a low sheared
environment and in a diffluent upper pattern, with even a chance of rapid
development. There is a small chance though that the system could turn more
towards the west into an increasingly sheared environment. Dry air intrusion may
also limit development in the short term.

From later Saturday, the cyclone is expected to move into a higher shear
environment, due to a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west, with
dry air entrainment weakening the system to below Tropical Cyclone strength.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/2000 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Indian Ocean (Australia): Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U 07/1800Z nr 15.9S 110.4E, moving S 3 kt (Perth TCWC) – Published 07 Apr 2017 2228z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm ERNIE 15S 26U

(= CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: TSR)

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Saturday 8 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 5) was located at 2:00 am AWST near
15.9S 110.4E,
that is 790 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 780 km north northwest of
Exmouth] and moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie has continued to intensify over the last 6 hours
and is a category 5 system over open waters northwest of WA. Ernie will
continue to intensify as it slowly tracks towards the south and then turn to
the west-southwest this morning and is expected to begin weakening from late
Saturday or early Sunday.

Gales are not expected on Christmas Island or the WA mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am AWST.

===============================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:16S110E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1835UTC 7 APRIL 2017

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie was centred within 15 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal nine south (15.9S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal four east (110.4E)
Recent movement : south at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 120 knots
Central pressure: 922 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 120 knots near the centre easing to 95 knots by 1800 UTC 08
April.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 08 April: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.2 south 110.0 east
Central pressure 931 hPa.
Winds to 115 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 08 April: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.4 south 109.1 east
Central pressure 953 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 08 April 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE (13P) 260900Z position nr 18.4S 151.0E, moving WSW 03kt (JTWC) – Published 26 Mar 2017 1253z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Debbie (13P)

Tropical cyclone Debbie moving towards the coast, expected to intensify into a category 3 system this evening – Brisbane TCWC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15

Issued at 7:49 pm EST on Sunday 26 March 2017

Headline:

Tropical cyclone Debbie moving towards the coast, expected to intensify into a category 3 system this evening.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone

Innisfail to Lucinda, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 7:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 18.4 degrees South 150.9 degrees East, estimated to be 440 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 330 kilometres east northeast of Bowen.

Movement: west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Debbie is moving west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system tonight. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

Hazards:

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay tonight, and could extend to remaining areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence on Monday. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda during Monday evening or Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may then gradually extend further north to Lucinda during the day Monday and overnight into Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the centre.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides on Monday.

Residents between and between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, is also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Recommended Action:

People between Ayr and St Lawrence should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Cairns and Ayr, and inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Sunday 26 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

================================================================================

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 26 Mar, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE is currently located near 18.3 S 151.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). DEBBIE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DEBBIE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
260600Z — NEAR 18.3S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 151.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 18.6S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 19.0S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 19.5S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 20.0S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.9S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 21.6S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 260545Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.5 (55 TO 70 KNOTS) LATEST SATCON
ESTIMATES AROUND 65 KNOTS, AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT TPW IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS SLOWED THE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A
STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC 13P MAKES LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTAU05 APRF 260653
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:16S099E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0653UTC 26 MARCH 2017

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Caleb was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude ninety nine decimal four east (99.4E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre.

Winds above 34 knots Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant,
with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.0 south 98.8 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 27 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 16.0 south 97.7 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 26 March 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: CYCLONE WARNING for coastal areas of western Top End, including Darwin, Tiwi Islands & Wadeye – – Published 04 Mar 2017 1820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low 1

Forecast Track Map (NT)

Forecast Track Map (NT)

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9

Issued at 1:47 am ACST [12:17 am AWST] on Sunday 05 March 2017

Headline:

Cyclone Warning for coastal areas of western Top End, including Darwin, Tiwi Islands and Wadeye.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Wadeye to Point Stuart and Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.

Watch Zone

Kuri Bay to Wadeye

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:30 am ACST [11:00 pm AWST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 10.6 degrees South 131.1 degrees East, estimated to be 105 kilometres north northeast of Milikapiti and 205 kilometres north of Darwin.

Movement: southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low in the Timor Sea is slowly intensifying and may reach tropical cyclone intensity near the Tiwi Islands in the next 6 to 12 hours. The system is expected to continue tracking to the southwest and may pass close to Darwin during Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon. The cyclone may intensify further during Sunday night or Monday before crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy in the next 6 to 12 hours, and extend south between Point Stuart and Wadeye (Port Keats), including Darwin, from Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon

GALES may extend further south between Wadeye (Port Keats) and the NT/WA border, later on Sunday and Monday. GALES may extend west between NT/WA border to Kuri Bay during Monday.

A STORM TIDE between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy may occur as the cyclone centre crosses the coast on Sunday morning. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart in the NT and Kuri Bay in WA on Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to continue over the Tiwi and Croker Islands and Cobourg Peninsula this morning, extending to the western Top End later Sunday and to the Kimberley region on Sunday night or Monday.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are possible in squally showers and storms across the western Top End during the next day or two even if the low does not reach cyclone intensity.

Recommended Action:

NTES advises residents from Cape Fourcroy to Croker Island and Point Stuart to Wadeye, including Darwin

– Your emergency kit should now be complete and ready;

– Finalise home shelter preparations, or know now where you will shelter;

– Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities

Communities under Watch:

– Finalise your emergency kit preparations;

– Clear your premises of potential wind borne missiles;

– Commence home shelter preparations, or decide NOW where you will shelter;

– If your present accommodation is not to code, or you re unsure, you should arrange to shelter with friends, family or in a public shelter or strong building;

– Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities.

DFES advises residents in the Watch zone between WA/NT border to Kuri Bay in WA:

-You should prepare your home inside and out

-Keep up to date with the development of the cyclone

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am ACST Sunday 05 March [3:30 am AWST Sunday 05 March].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDD20020.txt

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

More information here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

Australia National Weather Warnings Summary

===========================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:10S131E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1328UTC 4 MARCH 2017

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude ten decimal four south (10.4S)
longitude one hundred and thirty one decimal four east (131.4E)
Recent movement : southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18
hours.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 1200 UTC 05
March.

From 0000 UTC 5 March winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre,
extending to 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 05 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 11.3 south 130.4 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 05 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 12.2 south 129.3 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 04 March 2017.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Twelve people, mostly children, rescued from waters off Turnagain Island in the Torres Strait – Published 26 Sept 2015 0930z (GMT/UTC)

ABC News

Torres Strait rescue: Twelve people, including children, saved during night time ocean rescue

Posted about 2 hours ago

Twelve people, most of them children, were rescued from waters off Turnagain Island in the Torres Strait overnight after two boats got into difficulty while making a trip from Thursday Island to Saibai Island.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) coordinated the search after it detected an emergency beacon registered to a five-metre dingy in the vicinity of Turnagain Island about 9pm.

A helicopter was diverted to the scene by AMSA and located the first vessel which was taking on water and drifting towards a small island surrounded by crocodile-infested mangroves.

“We found a boat that had nine people on board that was bailing water. The people had rigged a makeshift sail and were luckily drifting into an island,” a rescue pilot said.

“We flew over to the island to illuminate the coastline for them. There was nothing else around for them to get to. They drifted into the island and landed in an estuary.”

The first rescue helicopter left the scene as it was running low on fuel while a second helicopter attended and winched a rescue swimmer down to the group.

The group advised rescuers there was a second dingy which had overturned with three people on board and they were still in the water.

According to AMSA a search was commenced immediately and a dingy with three people clinging to the hull was sighted in rough seas a short time later in the vicinity of Turnagain Island, about 37 kilometres from Sabai Island.

“We went out and searched and found the other people clinging to an overturned boat,” the pilot said.

“A Navy ship was nearby that was diverted and also a police vessel was on the scene to help coordinate that rescue too.”

Fortunately the three people from the overturned dingy were all wearing life jackets which contributed to their safe rescue, the AMSA said in a statement.

“It also helped that the beacon was correctly registered. From the beacon registration information, JRCC Australia was able to get early information about the number of boats and people to plan an appropriate rescue response,” the AMSA said.

Queensland Police confirmed there were multiple children involved in the incident, including an eight-year-old boy, all of whom were rescued and taken to family on Saibai Island.

The search and rescue mission included two rescue helicopters, a fixed-wing aircraft, a police vessel and a Navy vessel. –
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-26/twelve-people-rescued-from-waters-off-horn-island-torres-strait/6807078

Australia (NT): Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan 18P – Updated 240315 1715z (GMT/UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

IDA00041 N24

NT

Details for: Ex-TC Nathan

Australia National Weather Warnings Summary. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1815 N24

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/18P_040532sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240600Z — NEAR 12.5S 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 132.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 12.7S 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 132.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NATHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK INLAND OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED, BROADENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD. RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE DARWIN RADAR PROVIDES FURTHER
EVIDENCE OF THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH BROAD, FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER. MULTIPLE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
(ADJUSTED TO 1-MINUTE AVERAGE) OF ONLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE MOST RECENT DARWIN SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THROUGH
THE COLUMN WHILE THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES
DRY AIR ADVECTING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO LOCATED UNDER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THERFORE, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 48 WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 60 TO 72 AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2015 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression NATHAN (18P) currently located near 12.5 S 132.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oenpelli (12.3 S, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA10 / WARNING_WESTERN_DARWIN / 1235

WOAU03 AMMC 241235
IDY21020
40:3:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BNOC
AT 1235UTC 24 MARCH 2015
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA
PLEASE BE AWARE
WIND GUSTS CAN BE 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE,
AND MAXIMUM
WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.
SITUATION
VIGOROUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT FORECAST NEAR 44S076E 50S088E AT 241800UTC, 44S077E
50S090E AT
250001UTC, 43S080E 50S093E AT 250600UTC AND 43S084E 46S091E 50S096E
AT
251200UTC.
AREA AFFECTED
BOUNDED BY 46S080E 50S091E 50S101E 44S097E 43S092E 43S080E 46S080E.
FORECAST
W/NW WINDS 30/40 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 240NM EAST OF COLD FRONT
AFTER
241800UTC AND EXTENDING TO WITHIN 360NM EAST OF COLD FRONT BY
250600UTC.
W/SW WINDS 30/40 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 120NM SOUTHWEST OF COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF
45S BY 250600UTC.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELL.
WEATHER MELBOURNE=

Further warnings here: METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (NT): Tropical LOW 2: Tropical cyclone impact between Port Hedland & Northwest Cape possible from Thursday – TCWC Perth – Published 100315 1553z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low 2

Tropical cyclone impact between Port Hedland and Northwest Cape possible from Thursday – TCWC Perth

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

QLD NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 8:40 pm WST Tuesday 10 March 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 3.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Tropical cyclone impact between Port Hedland and Northwest Cape possible from Thursday.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Port Hedland to Coral Bay.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 14.3 degrees South, 116.3 degrees East , 720 kilometres north of Karratha and 880 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth .
Movement: east southeast at 8 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are not expected on Tuesday or Wednesday but may develop between Karratha and Exmouth on Thursday afternoon. If the system tracks a little more to the east then gales may develop as far east as Port Hedland.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne districts as the system approaches and may lead to flooding. Please refer to the latest Flood Watches and Warnings for more details ¿ http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 10 tropical low 14.3S 116.3E 110
+6hr 2 am March 11 tropical low 14.7S 116.5E 220
+12hr 8 am March 11 tropical low 15.1S 116.6E 240
+18hr 2 pm March 11 tropical low 15.6S 116.7E 260
+24hr 8 pm March 11 tropical low 16.2S 116.6E 280
+36hr 8 am March 12 1 17.7S 116.2E 315
+48hr 8 pm March 12 2 19.4S 115.4E 335
+60hr 8 am March 13 2 21.1S 114.4E 370
+72hr 8 pm March 13 2 22.9S 113.8E 400

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Further warnings here:

METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone Marcia 13P 20/2000 EST nr 24.3S 150.9E, moving SSE at 18 km/h – BoM – Updated 200215 1238z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Marcia 13P

Warning zone: Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera

Watch zone: None.

Cyclone Marcia downgraded to Intensity Category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia. – BoM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201513_sat_anim

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

M

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Marcia

Issued at 7:51 pm EST Friday 20 February 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 39.

QLD track

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Cyclone Marcia downgraded to category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera
.

Watch zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 8:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.3 degrees South, 150.9 degrees East , 65 kilometres southwest of Gladstone and 40 kilometres east northeast of Biloela .
Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Marcia has weakened to a category 1 cyclone, and is moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia district while continuing to weaken. It is expected to weaken below cyclone strength tonight.

Destructive winds are no longer expected at Biloela. Damaging wind gusts to about 120 km/h are still possible over the next couple of hours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current south of Double Island Point and inland to the southern Burnett and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h are expected about the coast and adjacent inland between Rockhampton and Double Island Point tonight, including Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced between Gladstone and Double Island Point with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide, even though the cyclone is inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible.

Dangerous surf is also expected.

Heavy rainfall is already occurring about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gladstone and Double Island Point, and is expected to continue tonight and Saturday morning as the cyclone moves south. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:

People between Rockhamton and Double Island Point and adjacent inland areas including Biloela, Monto and Mundubbera should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 pm.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm February 20 1 24.3S 150.9E 30
+6hr 2 am February 21 tropical low 25.1S 151.2E 30
+12hr 8 am February 21 tropical low 25.9S 151.7E 55
+18hr 2 pm February 21 tropical low 26.6S 152.2E 80
+24hr 8 pm February 21 tropical low 27.3S 152.9E 100
+36hr 8 am February 22 tropical low 28.3S 154.2E 135
+48hr 8 pm February 22 tropical low 28.7S 155.4E 170
+60hr 8 am February 23 tropical low 28.8S 156.5E 210
+72hr 8 pm February 23 tropical low 28.4S 157.4E 245

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday

 Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued at 7:51 pm EST on Friday 20 February 2015

Headline:
Cyclone Marcia downgraded to category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 8:00 pm EST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.3 degrees South 150.9 degrees East, estimated to be 65 kilometres southwest of Gladstone and 40 kilometres east northeast of Biloela.

Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

 

Tropical cyclone Marcia has weakened to a category 1 cyclone, and is moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia district while continuing to weaken. It is expected to weaken below cyclone strength tonight.

 

Destructive winds are no longer expected at Biloela. Damaging wind gusts to about 120 km/h are still possible over the next couple of hours.

 

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current south of Double Island Point and inland to the southern Burnett and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 km/h are expected about the coast and adjacent inland between Rockhampton and Double Island Point tonight, including Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera.

 

Abnormally high tides will be experienced between Gladstone and Double Island Point with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide, even though the cyclone is inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible.

 

Dangerous surf is also expected.

 

Heavy rainfall is already occurring about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gladstone and Double Island Point, and is expected to continue tonight and Saturday morning as the cyclone moves south. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:
People between Rockhamton and Double Island Point and adjacent inland areas including Biloela, Monto and Mundubbera should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 pm.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday 20 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

sh1315

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/13P_200532sams.jpg

 

 

WTPS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
200600Z — NEAR 23.8S 150.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 150.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 25.4S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 26.9S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 28.1S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 28.6S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL

REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
13P MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 19/2200Z AND HAS STARTED TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS DRAGGED ACROSS LAND. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GLADSTONE, AUSTRALIA, ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE EYE
FEATURE HAS DISSOLVED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS STARTED TO OPEN WHILE THE REMAINING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
STARTED TO WARM AND BREAK APART. THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE UNRAVELING NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA AND DUE TO THE
DECREASING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECREASING
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS, AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, IS
BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EAST AND PRESS ON THE SYSTEM. TC MARCIA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DUE
TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AND THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CORAL SEA NEAR BRISBANE AS A WEAK (<30 KNOTS) SUBTROPICAL LOW WHILE
THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINAL (24 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT FAVOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0618UTC 20 FEBRUARY 2015

GALE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia was centred over land within 10
nautical miles of
latitude twenty three decimal eight south (23.8S)
longitude one hundred and fifty decimal seven east (150.7E)
Recent movement : south at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 65 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within area 23S 151E to 23S 153E to 26S 155E to 26S 153E

FORECAST
NW/NE winds 34 to 47 knots with rough to very rough seas. Winds easing below 34
knots by 202000UTC.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 20 February: Within 30 nautical miles of 25.4 south 151.3 east over
land
At 0600 UTC 21 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 26.9 south 152.4 east over
land

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 20 February 2015.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Further warnings here:

METAREA X
METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (NT): Ex-Tropical Cyclone ‎LAM 12P has been downgraded to a tropical low. – BoM – Updated 200215 1140z (GMT/UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone LAM 12P

Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End. – BoM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201512_sat_anim

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

IDA00041

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam

Issued at 4:48 pm CST Friday 20 February 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 67
Track

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam at 4:30 pm CST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South, 133.8 degrees East , 75 kilometres southwest of Bulman and 90 kilometres northeast of Beswick .
Movement: south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:

Squally thunderstorms are likely to continue over the Top End.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low-lying areas and cause river rises over the central Top End. Locally very heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding is possible. A Flood Watch for the Arnhem and Carpentaria Coastal Rivers has been issued.

The STORM TIDE risk for coastal residents between Milingimbi and the Queensland border will continue to ease, however ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES may still occur at the time of local high tides for the next day or two.

No further issues of this product.

Refer to Severe Weather Warning.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents of Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Gapuwiyak and Ramingining in shelter that it is now safe to leave shelter. Shelters will remain open where necessary and residents are advised to limit movement to essential travel only and proceed with care around affected communities.

Damage has occurred to power lines in affected areas and residents should STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

The Territory Controller advises that heavy rain has resulted in swollen waterways, creeks and drains and residents should stay away from these areas.

Details:

Time (CST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 5 pm February 20 tropical low 14.1S 133.8E 55
+6hr 11 pm February 20 tropical low 14.6S 133.4E 40
+12hr 5 am February 21 tropical low 15.2S 133.0E 65
+18hr 11 am February 21 tropical low 15.8S 132.4E 85
+24hr 5 pm February 21 tropical low 16.3S 131.8E 110
+36hr 5 am February 22 tropical low 17.3S 130.4E 145
+48hr 5 pm February 22 tropical low 18.4S 129.1E 180
+60hr 5 am February 23 tropical low 19.5S 127.6E 220
+72hr 5 pm February 23 tropical low 20.4S 125.7E 255

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 pm CST Friday

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITYTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 67
Issued at 4:15 pm CST on Friday 20 February 2015

Headline:
Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
The Cyclone WARNING for inland parts of the central Arnhem District has been cancelled.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam at 4:00pm CST
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 133.8 degrees East, estimated to be 75 kilometres southwest of Bulman and 90 kilometres northeast of Beswick.

Movement: south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour.

Hazards:
Squally thunderstorms are likely to continue over the Top End.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low-lying areas and cause river rises over the central Top End. Locally very heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding is possible. A Flood Watch for the Arnhem and Carpentaria Coastal Rivers has been issued.

The STORM TIDE risk for coastal residents between Milingimbi and the Queensland border will continue to ease, however ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES may still occur at the time of local high tides for the next day or two.

Refer to Severe Weather Warning.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents of Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Gapuwiyak and Ramingining in shelter that it is now safe to leave shelter. Shelters will remain open where necessary and residents are advised to limit movement to essential travel only and proceed with care around affected communities.

Damage has occurred to power lines in affected areas and residents should STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

The Territory Controller advises that heavy rain has resulted in swollen waterways, creeks and drains and residents should stay away from these areas.

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area. Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Next Advice:
No further advices will be issued for this system.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

JTWC track

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/12P_191732sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
191800Z — NEAR 12.6S 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 134.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 13.5S 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 14.5S 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 15.8S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 16.9S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 134.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
12P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY
RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM GOVE AIRPORT AND WARRUWI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THESE RADARS ALSO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATION STATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERALL LAND INTERACTION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. TC LAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
SOUTHWESTERN TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH WEST BASIN. AS THE HIGH
TRACKS TO THE WEST, EXPECT TC 12P TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERRITORY, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREGORY NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Further warnings here:

METAREA X
METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Pacific Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ola 09F /10P 011200Z near 21.1S 162.1E, moving S at 7 knots (RSMC NADI) – Updated 010215 1836z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ola 09F /10P

Category Cyclone 3 (mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa) – RSMC Nadi

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone OLA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 1327 UTC Sunday 1 February 2015

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone OLA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm February 1 3 21.1S 162.1E 110
+6hr 6 pm February 1 3 21.6S 162.0E 140
+12hr 12 am February 2 3 22.2S 161.9E 165
+18hr 6 am February 2 3 22.6S 161.7E 195
+24hr 12 pm February 2 3 23.1S 161.5E 220
+36hr 12 am February 3 2 23.8S 160.8E 280
+48hr 12 pm February 3 2 24.6S 159.9E 345
+60hr 12 am February 4 1 25.5S 159.4E 430
+72hr 12 pm February 4 1 26.1S 159.4E 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/1711 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 3^ CENTRE 955HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.1S 162.1E AT 011200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LLCC EMBEDDED IN WHITE GIVING
DT=5.0, PT=5.0 AND MET=5.0.DT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 22.2S 161.9E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 23.1S 161.5E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 23.8S 160.8E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 24.6S 159.9E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
012000 UTC.

(* RSMC NADI
Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa )

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 1 February 2015
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 4 February 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone Ola, situated well offshore of the Queensland east coast (west
of New Caledonia) is expected to move in a general southwards direction over
the next couple of days and may enter the region on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone
Ola should be on a weakening trend around the time it approaches the region,
though for the latest information on this system refer to the Fiji
Meteorological Service website at http://www.met.gov.fj.

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next few days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday Very low
Tuesday Low
Wednesday Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1015

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10P_010532sams.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z — NEAR 20.5S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 162.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 21.8S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 22.9S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 23.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 24.8S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 26.0S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 26.2S 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 162.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE BUT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A
010428Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, TC OLA HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
FROM 45 KTS TO AN ASSESSED INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. MODERATE (10 TO 20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THAT TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
BEYOND THIS, EXPECT A RIDGE TO FORM SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING TC
10P TO GAIN A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. DUE TO THE INCREASED VWS AND
COOLER SSTS, EXPECT TC OLA TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AND
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIFURCATION
IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH GFS DRIVEN MODELS CONTINUING TO
FORCE TC 10P SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, WHICH MAY STILL BE A
POSSIBLE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WILL BE MILD BEFORE VWS AND
SSTS CAUSE IT TO DETERIORATE. FOR THE ABOVE REASONS, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND
020900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 044 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 01/1302 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA CENTRE 955HPA CATEGORY 3* WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1 SOUTH 162.1
EAST AT 011200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.1S 162.1E at 011200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 7 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY
021200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.2S 161.9E AT 020000 UTC
AND NEAR 23.1S 161.5E AT 021200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 043.

(* RSMC NADI
Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa )

There are other warnings at:

METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (WA): Tropical Low moving off W Kimberley coast unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth) – Published 190115 1123z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 5:43 pm WST Monday 19 January 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Kimberley low unlikely to become a tropical cyclone. Warnings cancelled but the system will be closely monitored.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: No active warning areas.

Watch zone: No active watch areas.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near centre 28 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 83 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South, 121.9 degrees East , 45 kilometres southwest of Broome and 420 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour .

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Hazards:

Sustained gales are not expected in coastal communities but areas of heavy rain are likely over the west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details – http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

ALL CLEAR: People in, near or between Cape Leveque and Mardie are advised that damaging winds are no longer expected.

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 5 pm January 19 tropical low 18.2S 121.9E 75
+6hr 11 pm January 19 tropical low 18.6S 120.7E 85
+12hr 5 am January 20 tropical low 19.2S 119.3E 100
+18hr 11 am January 20 tropical low 19.8S 117.6E 120
+24hr 5 pm January 20 tropical low 20.6S 115.7E 140
+36hr 5 am January 21 tropical low 21.6S 113.3E 175
+48hr 5 pm January 21 tropical low 22.6S 111.9E 215
+60hr 5 am January 22 tropical low 23.1S 110.9E 260
+72hr 5 pm January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.#

Western Australia Warnings Summary

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/index.shtml?ref=hdr

JTWC

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S122E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0952UTC 19 JANUARY 2015

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0900 UTC a tropical low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal two south (18.2S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal nine east (121.9E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 15 knots
Central pressure: 1003 hPa
The tropical low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

AREA AFFECTED
Nil.

FORECAST
Gales are no longer expected over marine areas

REMARKS

No further warnings will be issued unless the system intensifies.

WEATHER PERTH

There are other warnings at METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean: Ex-Tropical Cyclone 24S Jack 220900Z nr 18.1S 95.5E, moving ESE at 12 knots (JTWC) – Updated 220414 1300z

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclonesAUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack

Issued at 2:50 pm WST Tuesday 22 April 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Jack has weakened below cyclone intensity. Gales may persist in the southwest quadrant of the system due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge of high pressure to the south. Please refer to the High Seas Warning (IDY21000) issued by Weather Melbourne.

Name:  Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm April 22 tropical low 17.9S 95.2E 30
+6hr 8 pm April 22 tropical low 18.8S 95.8E 50
+12hr 2 am April 23 tropical low 19.5S 96.2E 70
+18hr 8 am April 23 tropical low 19.8S 96.3E 95
+24hr 2 pm April 23 tropical low 20.0S 96.3E 120
+36hr 2 am April 24 tropical low 19.7S 96.6E 155
+48hr 2 pm April 24 tropical low 19.6S 97.0E 190
+60hr 2 am April 25 tropical low 19.2S 97.2E 225
+72hr 2 pm April 25 tropical low 18.9S 96.9E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system.

 

 

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:33 pm WST on Tuesday 22 April 2014
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack was located at 2 pm WST near 17.9S 95.2E,
that is 660 km south southwest of Cocos Island and moving southeast at 20
kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jack has weakened below cyclone intensity. Gales may persist
in the southwest quadrant of the system due to a strong pressure gradient with
a ridge of high pressure to the south. Please refer to the High Seas Warning
(IDY21000) issued by Weather Melbourne. (G: See below in Maritime section)

No further Information Bulletins will be issued.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2414.gif

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/24S_220530sams.jpg

 

 

 

PGTW 220900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK) WARNING NR 008 Final Warning
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
220600Z — NEAR 17.8S 95.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 95.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z — 19.0S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 95.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY-WEAKENED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
INTERACTING WITH AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE SOUTH AND, AS SHOWN
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION, IS LIKELY INFUSING DRY
AIR. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDES SOLID EVIDENCE OF THE RAPID
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SPECIFICALLY, A 220309Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WHILE A 212324Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH BUT
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15
FEET.//
NNNN

 

Other Reports

Near real-time animated map of global wind and weather:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-255.65,-23.98,1071

MARITIME

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S095E999:11:00
SECURITE
CANCELLATION

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0658UTC 22 APRIL 2014

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jack was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal nine south (17.9S)
longitude ninety five decimal two east (95.2E)
Recent movement : southeast at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots southwest of the centre
Central pressure: 1002 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
The system has weakened below tropical cyclone intensity, however, gales may
persist in areas to the southwest of the centre.

FORECAST

REMARKS

Please refer to the High Seas Warning IDY21000 issued by Weather Melbourne for
further warnings.

WEATHER PERTH

Ocean Wind Warning 1

40:2:1:04:30S085E25045:11:00
IDY21000
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 0622UTC 22 APRIL 2014
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA.

PLEASE BE AWARE

Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Vigorous southeasterly flow associated with Ex- Tropical Cyclone “Jack” 1002 hPa
near 17.9S095.2E. Ex- Tropical Cyclone “Jack” forecast 1001 hPa near 18.8S095.8E
at 221200UTC, 1002 hPa near 19.5S096.2E at 221800UTC, 1002 hPa near 19.8S096.3E
at 230001UTC and 1001 hPa near 20S096.3E at 230600UTC.

This warning cancels and replaces High Seas Gale Warning (IDW23100) issued by
TCWC Perth.

Area Affected
Bounded by 23S093E 20S090E 18S091E 18S093E 21S095E 23S099E 24S098E 23S093E.
Forecast
SE quarter winds 30/40 knots within 210nm of low in southwestern quadrant west
of 096E, extending throughout area by 221200UTC. Winds increasing to 35/45 knots
within 90nm of low in southwest quadrant. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to
heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

All other warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml

Specialist weather for mariners – passageweather.com
http://www.passageweather.com/maps/sindian/mappage.htm

METAREA X

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Tropical Cyclone (now Extratropical) 23P ITA 140900Z nr 24.0S 155.9E, moving ESE at 23 knots (JTWC) – Updated 140414 1620z

TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) (JTWC)

Ex-TC Ita (BoM)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA – EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0726 UTC 14/04/2014
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 23.7S
Longitude: 155.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [122 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [33 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 0 nm [0 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 14/1200: 24.3S 156.6E: 040 [080]: 050 [095]: 992
+12: 14/1800: 24.7S 157.6E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 992
+18: 15/0000: 25.3S 158.6E: 065 [125]: 045 [085]: 995
+24: 15/0600: 25.9S 159.9E: 080 [145]: 045 [085]: 995
+36: 15/1800: 27.6S 162.6E: 100 [185]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 16/0600: 30.9S 166.8E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+60: 16/1800: 36.0S 170.2E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 994
+72: 17/0600: 38.2S 170.3E: 155 [290]: 035 [065]: 990
+96: 18/0600: : : :
+120: 19/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Analysis of the cloud system and ASCAT data suggests that the system has
completed its transition to a vigorous extra-tropical low. Movement will
continue to be rapidly ESE due to NW’ly steering from a strong upper trough over
eastern Australia. Deep layer wind shear over the system is estimated to be 30 –
40 knots.

Surface observations from Cato Island indicate that the system has intensified
during the extra-tropical transition, with maximum sustained winds pushed up to
50 knots. Dvorak analysis no longer relevant. Confidence in the LLCC position is
fair, using visible satelite imagery and surface automatic weather station
observations.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==

No further technical bulletins are expected to be issued for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2314.gif

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/23P_140532sams.jpg

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 140900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 23.7S 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 155.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 25.0S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 155.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC 23P HAS STARTED TO RAPIDLY UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS STARTED TO
ELONGATE WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TAKE ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION ADDITIONALLY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING WARM CORE ANOMALY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, INDICATIVE OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE ANOMALY HAS
DISSIPATED. AS TC ITA CONTINUES SOUTHEAST, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER ACCELERATE THE ETT
PROCESS, TRANSITIONING THE SYSTEM INTO A GALE FORCE LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

Other Reports

2 adults & 3 children rescued from flood waters 10km S of Cooktown

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/04/12/water-rescue-underway-after-ita-newman

MARITIME

WOAU01 AMMC 141222
40:2:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
IDY21000
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 1222UTC 14 APRIL 2014
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA.

PLEASE BE AWARE

Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Vigorous westerly quarter flow.

Area Affected
Bounded by 44S080E 41S110E 41S116E 43S116E 46S112E 50S111E 50S080E 44S080E.

Forecast
W quarter winds 30/40 knots initially west of 090E, extending to west of 096E by
141800UTC, west of 103E by 150001UTC, west of 110E by 150600UTC and throughout
area by 151200UTC. Wind speeds increasing to 35/45 knots south of 47S after
141800UTC. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

WOAU06 AMMC 141232
40:2:1:04:55S075E35095:11:00
IDY21050
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 1232UTC 14 APRIL 2014
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Area A: Vigorous flow associated with a low 986hPa near 46S103E at 141200UTC.
Low forecast 976hPa near 46S107E at 141800UTC, 976hPa near 46S113E at 150001UTC,
976hPa near 47S118E at 150600UTC and 975hPa near 49S123E at 151200UTC.

Area B: Vigorous northerly flow developing associated with a cold front forecast
near 42S126E 45S129E 50S127E at 150900UTC and 42S129E 45S131E 50S129E at
151200UTC.

Area Affected
Area A: Bounded by 50S100E 44S094E 40S095E 37S103E 40S118E 46S128E 50S128E
50S100E.

Area B: Bounded by 50S127E 45S129E 45S133E 50S133E 50S127E.

Forecast
Area A: Clockwise winds 30/40 knots within 480nm of low in sector from south
through northwest to east, decreasing to within 360nm of low by 151200UTC. Winds
increasing to 40/50 knots within 240nm of low in northern semicircle. Winds
further increasing to 45/55 knots within 180nm in northern quadrant of low
between 142100UTC and 150300UTC.

Area B: N quarter winds 30/40 knots within 180nm east of cold front developing
by 150900UTC. Winds decreasing below 34 knots west of cold front.

Rough to very rough seas rising to high in storm force wind area. Moderate to
heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

METAREA X

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Indian Ocean/ Australia/ Indonesia: Tropical Cyclone Gillian 251200Z nr 20.4S 103.7E, moving S at 07 knots (TCWC Perth) Max winds 50 knots – Updated 250314 1805z

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Indian Ocean MH370 missing aircraft Search & Rescue assets be aware.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Issued at 8:37 pm WST Tuesday 25 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Gillian is moving steadily in a south to southwesterly direction, well away from the Australian mainland.

Gillian is continuing to weaken and should drop below tropical cyclone intensity Wednesday morning.

 

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Gillian

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 25 2 20.4S 103.7E 55
+6hr 2 am March 26 1 20.8S 103.4E 80
+12hr 8 am March 26 1 21.2S 103.3E 100
+18hr 2 pm March 26 tropical low 21.4S 103.1E 125
+24hr 8 pm March 26 tropical low 21.5S 102.7E 145
+36hr 8 am March 27 tropical low 21.3S 101.5E 180
+48hr 8 pm March 27 tropical low 21.2S 100.0E 220
+60hr 8 am March 28 tropical low 21.2S 98.0E 255
+72hr 8 pm March 28 tropical low 21.0S 96.7E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday

 

 

(Goaty: See information on Tropical cyclone intensity)

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 20:07 WIB 25/03/2014

Siklon Tropis GILLIAN

Kondisi tanggal 25/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 20.4LS, 103.7BT (sekitar 1620 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : selatan, kecepatan 7 knots (13 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan Angin Maksimum: 50 knots (95 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 26/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.5LS, 102.7BT (sekitar 1760 km sebelah selatan barat daya Jakarta)
Arah Gerak : Barat, bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 27/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.2LS, 100.0BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 20 knots (35 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 28/03/2014 pukul 19:00 WIB :
Posisi : 21.0LS, 96.7BT
Arah Gerak : Barat bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 15 knots (30 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Siklon tropis GILLIAN ini memberikan dampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia berupa :
– Gelombang laut 2 – 3 meter berpeluang terjadi di Perairan Enggano – Bengkulu, Perairan barat Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is issued by JAKARTA CENTRE
In : 20:07 pm 03/25/2014
 

Tropical Cyclone Gillian 

Conditions dated 25/03/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 20.4LS , 103.7BT ( approximately 1620 miles south southwest of New York)
Motion direction : south , speed of 7 knots ( 13 km / h ) moving away from the territory of Indonesia
Maximum Wind Speed ​​: 50 knots ( 95 km / h )
 

Predicted 24- hour , date 03/26/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.5LS , 102.7BT ( approximately 1760 miles south southwest of New York)
Motion Direction : West , moving away from the territory of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 30 knots ( 55 km / h )
 

Prediction 48 hours , date 03/27/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.2LS , 100.0BT
Motion Direction : West moving away from parts of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 20 knots ( 35 km / h )
 

Prediction 72 hours , date 03/28/2014 19:00 pm :
Position : 21.0LS , 96.7BT
Motion Direction : West moving away from parts of Indonesia
speed
Maximum winds : 15 knots ( 30 km / h )
 

IMPACT OF WEATHER IN INDONESIA :
Gillian tropical cyclone is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as :
– Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters Enggano – Bengkulu , Lampung western waters , the southern part of the Sunda Strait , waters south of Banten

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1714.gif

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_250532sams.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 19.6S 103.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 103.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 20.4S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 20.7S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 103.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 250532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 250519Z AMSR2 PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 17P IS
CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:20S104E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1241UTC 25 MARCH 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Gillian was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal four south (20.4S)
longitude one hundred and three decimal seven east (103.7E)
Recent movement : south at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 988 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semi circle, extending
to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0600 UTC 26
March.

Winds above 48 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell until 1200 UTC 25 March.

Winds above 34 knots within 30 nautical miles of the centre in the northwest
quadrant, extending to within 90 nautical miles of the centre in all other
quadrants, with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell until 0600
UTC 26 March.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.2 south 103.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 21.5 south 102.7 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 March 2014.

WEATHER PERTH

METAREA XI

METAREA X

Specialist weather for mariners: PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website http://www.passageweather.com/maps/oceania/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone Hadi: 101200Z near 18.7S 151.8E, moving ENE at 5 knots (away from QLD) (TCWC Brisbane) – Updated 100314 1422z

Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

 

Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

Issued at 11:20 pm EST Monday 10 March 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

 

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Hadi remains a CATEGORY 1, and the intensification trend that the system displayed earlier today has halted in the past few hours. The cyclone is currently moving in an east-northeasterly direction at about 10 kilometres per hour and is expected to remain on a similar track overnight, with a slight acceleration towards the northeast during the day on Tuesday. This will take the cyclone further away from the Queensland coast.

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Hadi

 

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm March 10 1 18.7S 151.8E 75
+6hr 4 am March 11 1 18.3S 152.1E 95
+12hr 10 am March 11 1 18.0S 152.3E 120
+18hr 4 pm March 11 1 17.6S 152.8E 140
+24hr 10 pm March 11 1 16.9S 153.3E 165
+36hr 10 am March 12 1 15.6S 154.5E 200
+48hr 10 pm March 12 1 14.5S 157.4E 235
+60hr 10 am March 13 1 13.5S 160.0E 275
+72hr 10 pm March 13 1 12.4S 163.0E 310

 

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

 

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 am EST Tuesday

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:57 pm EST on Monday 10 March 2014
At 10 pm EST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Category 1) with central pressure
998 hPa was located
over the Coral Sea near latitude 18.7 south longitude 151.8 east, which is
about 350 km east northeast of Hamilton Island.

Tropical Cyclone Hadi remains a CATEGORY 1, and the intensification trend that
the system displayed earlier today has halted in the past few hours. The
cyclone is currently moving in an east-northeasterly direction at about 10
kilometres per hour and is expected to remain on a similar track overnight,
with a slight acceleration towards the northeast during the day on Tuesday.
This will take the cyclone further away from the Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST Tuesday.

Preparation & safety

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

QLD: EMQ

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1914.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/19P_100532sams.jpg

WTPS33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001   
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
100600Z — NEAR 18.9S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 151.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.6S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 17.8S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 17.2S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 15.8S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 13.4S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 12.7S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 13.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 151.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 100510Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS THE LLCC
MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF AMBIGUITY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS OFFSETTING STRONG TO MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC HADI IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG A WEAK PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
NER IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RELAX, ALTHOUGH REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION REACHING 55 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY SPREAD
WITH A 500NM SPREAD BY TAU 48. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100200Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 100200). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1301UTC 10 MARCH 2014

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hadi was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal seven south (18.7S)
longitude one hundred and fifty one decimal eight east (151.8E)
Recent movement : east northeast at 5 knots
Maximum winds   : 40 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 0000 UTC 11
March.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 11 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 18.0 south 152.3 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.
At 1200 UTC 11 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.9 south 153.3 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 10 March 2014.

WEATHER BRISBANE

PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/coralsea/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna 011200Z nr 20.9S 152.2E, moving W at 10 knots (TCWC Brisbane) No threat to QLD – 010214 1437z

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna

Issued at 11:01 pm EST Saturday 1 February 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Edna has weakened below tropical cyclone strength. The remnant tropical low will drift northwest tonight and then north on Sunday into the northern Coral Sea. Ex-tropical cyclone Edna will remain well off the coast and poses no threat to mainland Queensland.

Name:Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm February 1 tropical low 20.9S 152.2E 110
+6hr 4 am February 2 tropical low 20.4S 151.3E 135
+12hr 10 am February 2 tropical low 19.3S 150.9E 155
+18hr 4 pm February 2 tropical low 18.1S 151.2E 180
+24hr 10 pm February 2 tropical low 16.9S 151.5E 200
+36hr 10 am February 3 tropical low 15.2S 152.7E 240
+48hr 10 pm February 3 tropical low 14.1S 155.7E 275
+60hr 10 am February 4 tropical low 15.5S 158.8E 310
+72hr 10 pm February 4 tropical low 18.4S 162.4E 345

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:54 pm EST on Saturday 1 February 2014
At 10 pm EST Saturday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna with central pressure 996 hPa
was located
over the central Coral Sea near latitude 20.9 south longitude 152.2 east, which
is about 310 km east of Mackay.

Edna has weakened below tropical cyclone strength. The remnant tropical low
will drift northwest tonight and then north on Sunday into the northern Coral
Sea. Ex-tropical cyclone Edna will remain well off the coast and poses no
threat to mainland Queensland.

No further Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletins will be issued unless the
system redevelops.

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE
CANCELLATION

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1309UTC 1 FEBRUARY 2014

CANCELLATION OF GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal nine south (20.9S)
longitude one hundred and fifty two decimal two east (152.2E)
Recent movement : west at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Nil.

FORECAST
Gales are no longer expected.

No further warnings will be issued for this system.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Australia: Tropical Cyclone 11P DYLAN 301500Z nr 19.1S 147.9E, moving S at 6 knots – expected to cross coast between Ayr & Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise – 300114 1515z

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

256 km Townsville (Hervey Range) Radar Loop

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

 

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Issued at 11:05 pm EST Thursday 30 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 18.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

 

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone, extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
– Boats and outside property should be secured.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Name:Tropical Cyclone Dylan

 

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 30 2 18.9S 148.2E 45
+6hr 4 am January 31 2 19.6S 147.8E 55
+12hr 10 am January 31 1 20.4S 147.1E 75
+18hr 4 pm January 31 tropical low 21.0S 146.2E 95
+24hr 10 pm January 31 tropical low 21.7S 145.3E 110
+36hr 10 am February 1 tropical low 22.6S 143.2E 150
+48hr 10 pm February 1 tropical low 23.1S 141.1E 195
+60hr 10 am February 2 tropical low 23.7S 138.4E 240
+72hr 10 pm February 2 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

 

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

 

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell and St Lawrence and
adjacent inland areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 11:08 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be 125
kilometres north of Bowen and 155 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on
Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell
and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday
morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas
near the centre.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and
adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast
and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea
is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with
damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high
tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone,
extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the
Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
– Boats and outside property should be secured.
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near…… 18.9 degrees South 148.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 2
.Central pressure……… 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Friday 31 January.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1114.gif

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 18.8S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 148.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 20.0S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 21.0S 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK THAT HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM
TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF, AUSTRALIA, WHICH
SHOWED PERSISTENT 58 KNOT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED JUST TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. TC DYLAN IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE
OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY THE LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jan, 2014 12:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm DYLAN (11P) currently located near 18.8 S 148.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1312UTC 30 JANUARY 2014

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Dylan was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal nine south (18.9S)
longitude one hundred and forty eight decimal two east (148.2E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within 220 nautical miles in
southeastern quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre extending to within
220 nautical miles in SE quadrant. Very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 31 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.4 south 147.1 east over
land
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 31 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 21.7 south 145.3 east over
land
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 30 January 2014.

WEATHER BRISBANE

 

Norfolk Island (AUS)/ Auckland (NZ): Ex Tropical Cyclone 08F JUNE 191200Z nr 29S 166E , moving SSE at 20 knots (MetService NZ) – 190114 1444z

Tropical Cyclone 08F JUNE (RSMC Nadi)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P JUNE (JTWC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone June: A Cyclone WARNING is current for Norfolk Island, Australia (BoM)

June currently headed toward Norfolk Island, AUS, then Auckland, NZ

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating  on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

 

Tropical Cyclone JUNE

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 1321 UTC Saturday 18 January 2014

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone JUNE

 

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm January 18 1 22.4S 164.8E 110
+6hr 6 pm January 18 1 23.8S 165.1E 140
+12hr 12 am January 19 tropical low 25.3S 165.6E 165
+18hr 6 am January 19 tropical low 26.8S 166.0E 195
+24hr 12 pm January 19 tropical low 28.2S 166.9E 220
+36hr 12 am January 20 tropical low 30.9S 168.8E 280
+48hr 12 pm January 20 tropical low 33.2S 171.2E 345
+60hr 12 am January 21 tropical low 35.5S 174.2E 430
+72hr 12 pm January 21 tropical low 38.3S 177.3E 520

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/1946 UTC 2014 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6S
165.1E AT 181800 UTC. POSITION POOR ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS AND LIES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN, LLCC SHEARED 85NM FROM
DEEP CONVECTION YEILDING DT OF 2.0, MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON
MET THUS, T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TROPICAL
CYCLONE JUNE.

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone June

Issued at 12:16 am NFT Monday 20 January 2014 based on international data at 11:30 pm NFT. Refer to Norfolk Island Tropical Cyclone Advice.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from New Zealand.

Note: Information in text warning may have been issued at a different time to the latest track data.
Remarks:

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE is currently passing to the west of Norfolk Island and is expected to continue moving in a southeast direction for the next 24 hours. The impacts on Norfolk Island are expected to be similar to a Category 1 tropical cyclone.

Damaging winds averaging about 75 kilometres per hour, with gusts to about 110 kilometres per hour, are currently occurring on Norfolk Island and will persist for the next 6 to 12 hours.

Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas, may occur along the foreshore tonight and during Monday.

Name:  Ex-Tropical Cyclone June

Details:

Time (NFT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am January 20 tropical low 29.1S 166.6E 85
+6hr 6 am January 20 tropical low 30.7S 167.4E 105
+12hr 12 pm January 20 tropical low 32.0S 168.3E 130
+18hr 6 pm January 20 tropical low 33.1S 169.5E 150
+24hr 12 am January 21 tropical low 34.0S 170.8E 175
+36hr 12 pm January 21 tropical low 36.3S 174.7E 210
+48hr 12 am January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 12 pm January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 am January 23 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau’s website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:30 am NFT Monday

IDQ20064
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Issued at 12:15 am NFT Monday 20 January 2014 based on international data at
11:30 pm NFT

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for Norfolk Island.

At 11:30 pm NFT, the centre of Ex-Tropical Cyclone June was estimated to be 130
kilometres west of Norfolk Island and moving south southeast at 33 kilometres
per hour.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE is currently passing to the west of Norfolk Island and
is expected to continue moving in a southeast direction for the next 24 hours.
The impacts on Norfolk Island are expected to be similar to a Category 1
tropical cyclone.

Damaging winds averaging about 75 kilometres per hour, with gusts to about 110
kilometres per hour, are currently occurring on Norfolk Island and will persist
for the next 6 to 12 hours.

Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and
abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas,
may occur along the foreshore tonight and during Monday.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone June at 11:30 pm NFT:
.Centre located near…… 29.1 degrees South 166.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southeast at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 110 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure……… 992 hectoPascals

The Community and Visitors to Norfolk Island should remain inside until
Ex-Tropical Cyclone June has passed and listen to the next advice at 3:30am NFT.
– Information is available from Emergency Management Norfolk Island [+6723 999]
or the Norfolk Island Police Force [+6723 22222]
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Norfolk Island
Administration website at: http://www.info.gov.nf/Emergency_Management
– For emergency assistance call the Emergency Management Norfolk Island on +6723
999 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

The next advice will be issued by 3:30 am NFT Monday 20 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau’s
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island
Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from
New Zealand.

Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs

TCWC-Wellington/Meteorological Service of New Zealand, Ltd.
http://www.metservice.co.nz/forecasts/severe_weather.asp

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2014 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JUNE (10P) currently located near 20.0 S 163.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1014.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10P_172332sams.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005    
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
190600Z — NEAR 27.9S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 165.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 31.6S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 166.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON, NORFOLK ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS SHALLOWED
AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED OVER RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY AND COMPLETES ETT AS A COLD CORE LOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 10 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA14 / GALE_STORM_WARNING_SOUTH_25S / 1203

WWNZ40 NZKL 191203 GALE WARNING 239 THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC AT 191200UTC OVER WATERS SOUTH OF 25S. LOW 992HPA, FORMER CYCLONE JUNE, NEAR 29S 166E MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 20KT. WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW: CLOCKWISE 40KT. GALE AREA MOVING WITH LOW. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 237.

Subtropic high seas forecast

Issued by MetService at 7:22pm Sunday 19 Jan 2014 NZ

Forecast valid to 1:00am Tuesday 21 Jan 2014: South of 37S and east of 178E and west 175W: Northwest quarter 25kt, easing by 200000UTC. Low 990hPa, former Cyclone JUNE, near 27S 165E moving southsoutheast 20kt. Within 300 nautical miles of Low in sector from south through west to northeast: Clockwise 25kt and gales as in warning 237. Within 420 nautical miles of Low in sector from northeast through southeast to south: Clockwise 25kt and gales as in warning 237. Within 420 nautical miles of Low: Poor visibility in areas of rain and areas of heavy swell.

Outlook following 72 hours

Low, former Cyclone June, expected near 34S 170E at 201200UTC, continuing to move southeast. Clockwise 25kt to gale near low until 221200UTC, with heavy northerly swells in southeast quadrant. High expected near 40S 145E at 221200UTC, extending ridge northeast,then moving east.

GALE WARNING 239
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 191200UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
Low 992hPa, former Cyclone JUNE, near 29S 166E moving southsoutheast 20kt.
Within 240 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 40kt.
Gale area moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 237.

Issued at 1:04am Monday 20 Jan 2014

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before:
NZDT: 8:15am, 8:15pm
NZST: 9:15am, 9:15pm
Updates and amendments may be issued at any time.

 

Australia: Tropical Low 1 – Cyclone WARNING Coastal areas from Daly River Mouth NT to Kalumburu WA. 141200Z nr 13.7S 131.3E, moving SW at 9 knots (BoM) – 140114 1620z

Tropical Low 1

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

Map of Australian region showing the location of any current active tropical cyclones

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Sun Jan 12 10:30:00 2014 at Sun Jan 12 20:30:00 2014 AEST

MSLP Analysis for Mon Jan 13 06:00:00 2014 AUTC

Australian Weather Watch Radar Network (link)

NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 11:01 pm CST Tuesday 14 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9.

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities, there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT border should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (CST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm January 14 tropical low 13.7S 131.3E 45
+6hr 4 am January 15 tropical low 14.3S 130.7E 70
+12hr 10 am January 15 tropical low 14.9S 130.0E 90
+18hr 4 pm January 15 tropical low 15.4S 129.5E 115
+24hr 10 pm January 15 tropical low 16.0S 129.1E 135
+36hr 10 am January 16 tropical low 17.5S 128.5E 175
+48hr 10 pm January 16 tropical low 18.9S 127.9E 210
+60hr 10 am January 17 tropical low 19.6S 126.9E 245
+72hr 10 pm January 17 tropical low 20.0S 125.7E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday

WA

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 9:32 pm WST Tuesday 14 January 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 9.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities, there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT border should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm January 14 tropical low 13.7S 131.3E 45
+6hr 2 am January 15 tropical low 14.3S 130.7E 70
+12hr 8 am January 15 tropical low 14.9S 130.0E 90
+18hr 2 pm January 15 tropical low 15.4S 129.5E 115
+24hr 8 pm January 15 tropical low 16.0S 129.1E 135
+36hr 8 am January 16 tropical low 17.5S 128.5E 175
+48hr 8 pm January 16 tropical low 18.9S 127.9E 210
+60hr 8 am January 17 tropical low 19.6S 126.9E 245
+72hr 8 pm January 17 tropical low 20.0S 125.7E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 12:30 am WST Wednesday

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9  
Issued at 10:55 pm CST [9:25 pm WST] on Tuesday 14 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
150 kilometres south southeast of Darwin and
395 kilometres east northeast of Wyndham and
moving southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low is currently over land over the western Top End and is expected to move
in a southwest direction, passing close to the coast near the NT/WA Border. If
the low takes a more westerly track and moves into the southern Timor Sea then
there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing later on Wednesday
morning.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth
and Kalumburu later on Wednesday morning.

TIDES will be higher than normal between Daly River Mouth and the WA/NT Border
during Wednesday if the low moves over water.

The Territory Controller advises residents in the Northern Territory from Daly
River Mouth to the WA border that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that for Western Australian communities,
there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the
NT border should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near…… 13.7 degrees South 131.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure……… 996 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday 15 January [12:30 am
WST Wednesday 15 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210IDD20040

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Heavy Rainfall and Damaging Winds
for people in the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem, Roper-McArthur, Victoria River and Barkly Districts, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands
Issued at 11:07 pm CST on Tuesday 14 January 2014

Synoptic Situation: At 9:30 pm CST a TROPICAL LOW 996 hPa, was near latitude
13.7S, longitude 131.3E, about 150 kilometres south southeast of Darwin. The
low is currently over the northwest Top End and is expected to move in a
southwest direction, close to the coast near the NT/WA Border.

Heavy rain over the Arnhem, eastern Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts,
including the Tiwi Islands may lead to flash flooding overnight and during
Wednesday.

A vigorous monsoon has developed along the north coast of the Top End.
Monsoonal squalls with locally damaging wind gusts up to 95 km/h are expected
along the Territory coastline tonight and during Wednesday. Locally damaging
wind gusts to 95 km/h are also possible with thunderstorms over the
Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts, extending into the Victoria
River and Barkly Districts on Wednesday afternoon.

A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for this system – telephone 1300 659
211 (NT)

Noonamah in Darwin’s rural area has received 153.2 mm of rain between 9am and
10:30pm today and flash flooding has also been reported in the Darwin rural
area.  Upper Adelaide River has also reported 135.8 mm of rain between 9am and
10:30pm today.

McCluer Island on the north Arnhem coast has reported 83 km/h wind gusts at
11:12 am and at 6:01pm today.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure
loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous – avoid flooded roads and watercourses.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am CST Wednesday 15 January.

This warning is also available on telephone 1300 659 214 or on the internet at
http://www.bom.gov.au.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/132200Z-141800ZJAN2014//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131951ZJAN2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 131800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.9S 73.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 132100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
131.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DARWIN CONTINUES TO INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF 997 MB WITH 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF UP
TO 7 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER,
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LAND; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODELS
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

MARITIME

IDD20110
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For waters from WA/NT Border to Cape Wessel
Issued at 11:05 pm CST on Tuesday 14 January 2014

Synoptic Situation
At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was located within 25 nautical miles of 13.7 S
131.3 E about 80 nautical miles south southeast of Darwin with central pressure
996 hectopascals moving southwest at 9 knots.

The low is expected to move southwest over the western Top End and may move
into the Timor Sea during Wednesday. The low may develop into a tropical
cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours if it moves over water.

Centre forecast to be within 75 nautical miles of 16.0 S 129.1 E about 240
nautical miles south southwest of Darwin at 9:30 pm CST Wednesday.

Gale Warning
From Daly River Mouth to WA/NT Border…
West to southwest winds 20/25 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots overnight. Winds
increasing further to clockwise 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of the low
if it develops into a cyclone. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas to 2 metres,
rising to 3 metres overnight, and to 3.5 metres if the low develops into a
cyclone. A 2 metre westerly swell developing on Wednesday.

Strong Wind Warning
From Daly River Mouth to Cape Wessel….
Southwest to northwest winds 20/30 knots between Daly River Mouth and Cape
Wessel. Winds reaching 25/33 knots over offshore waters between Cape Don and
Cape Wessel, easing in the morning. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas rising
to 3 metres. A 2 to 3 metre west to northwest swell over offshore waters in the
north, extending to offshore waters in the west later Wednesday. These
conditions should persist for another 24 to 48 hours.

The next warning will be issued by 2:00 AM CST.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

————————– End of warning —————————-

METAREA10&11 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_NORTHERN-AREA / 1340

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:14S131E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1340UTC 14 JANUARY 2014

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal seven south (13.7S)
longitude one hundred and thirty one decimal three east (131.3E) over land.
Recent movement : southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds   : 20 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone over the southern Timor Sea in the
next 6 to 18 hours.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 20 knots near the centre.

Clockwise winds 25/35 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre may develop if
the low moves over water, with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 15 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.9 south 130.0 east over
land
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots
At 1200 UTC 15 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 16.0 south 129.1 east over
land
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 20 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 14 January 2014.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Australia: Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (=CAT1 Hurricane SS) 302100Z nr 21.6S 117.2E, moving SW at 10 knots (JTWC) – 311213 1035z

Tropical Cyclone 05S Christine (JTWC)

= CAT1 strength (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Severe Tropical Cyclone (Intensity Category 1) Christine BOM

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the Pilbara including
Paraburdoo, Tom Price and Newman extending into central WA to include Three
Rivers, Wiluna and Leinster.

National Radar image

National Radar image (Image: BOM)
CLICK IMAGE FOR RADAR ANIMATION

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone Christine

Issued at 2:33 pm WST Tuesday 31 December 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 50.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Christine has weakened to a Category 1 Cyclone as it moves over southern parts of the Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne. Christine has started moving south southeast and is expected to accelerate towards the southeast tonight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring in southern parts of the Pilbara and should extend into the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and the far northern Goldfields this afternoon and evening before the cyclone weakens overnight.

After the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity overnight, severe winds are likely to continue on the northeastern side of the system during Wednesday as it moves quickly across southeastern WA.

Heavy rainfall is possible near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings have been issued for the Pilbara.
DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near Tom Price and Paraburdoo. You need to immediately head to shelter and stay indoors away from doors and windows.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Newman and inland to the Collier Ranges and Three Rivers including Kumarina and east to Granite Peak and southwest to Wiluna, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between De Grey and Mardie including Marble Bar, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected. People still need to take caution when heading outside as there may still be fallen debris.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Name:Tropical Cyclone Christine

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm December 31 1 23.5S 117.4E 35
+6hr 8 pm December 31 1 24.7S 118.5E 60
+12hr 2 am January 1 1 25.9S 119.8E 80
+18hr 8 am January 1 tropical low 27.3S 121.6E 105
+24hr 2 pm January 1 tropical low 28.8S 123.5E 130
+36hr 2 am January 2 tropical low 30.3S 128.5E 165
+48hr 2 pm January 2 tropical low 32.1S 134.1E 200
+60hr 2 am January 3 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 2 pm January 3 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning CentreMedia: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued at 2:33 pm WST on Tuesday 31 December 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the Pilbara including
Paraburdoo, Tom Price and Newman extending into central WA to include Three
Rivers, Wiluna and Leinster.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Christine, Category 1, was estimated to be
45 kilometres southwest of Paraburdoo and
315 kilometres south of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour.

Christine has weakened to a Category 1 Cyclone as it moves over southern parts
of the Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne. Christine has started moving
south southeast and is expected to accelerate towards the southeast tonight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour are possible near the
cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring in southern
parts of the Pilbara and should extend into the eastern Gascoyne, far western
Interior and the far northern Goldfields this afternoon and evening before the
cyclone weakens overnight.

After the system weakens below tropical cyclone intensity overnight, severe
winds are likely to continue on the northeastern side of the system during
Wednesday as it moves quickly across southeastern WA.

Heavy rainfall is possible near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings have been
issued for the Pilbara.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near Tom Price and Paraburdoo. You need to immediately
head to shelter and stay indoors away from doors and windows.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Newman and inland to the Collier Ranges and Three
Rivers including Kumarina and east to Granite Peak and southwest to Wiluna,
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between De Grey and Mardie including Marble Bar,
Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson,
Karratha, Dampier and Pannawonica are advised that the threat of strong winds
is no longer expected. People still need to take caution when heading outside
as there may still be fallen debris.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Details of the Tropical Cyclone Christine at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near…… 23.5 degrees South 117.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southeast at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 1
.Central pressure……… 983 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 31 December.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

WA: DFES

Australian Red Cross

Twitter @RedCrossAU

redcross.org.au

Call theRed Cross office in your state and ask for the emergency services department.

You can also email them.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0514.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_301132sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 302100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE) FINAL WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301800Z — NEAR 21.1S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 117.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 23.2S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 25.5S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 27.9S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS TC 05S MOVES OVER
LAND; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A 20-NM DIAMETER EYE. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL NEAR
301400Z AND TRACKED OVER ROEBOURNE AIRPORT, WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 71 KNOTS GUSTING TO 93 KNOTS WITH A
MINIMUM SLP OF 958 MB. TC CHRISTINE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY ERODE THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO
THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoS Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 30 Dec, 2013 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE (05S) currently located near 21.1 S 117.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

NONE

Asylum seekers: drowning on our watch

Indonesian (Translated by Google)

(Reblogged dari daifoladonline.wordpress.com)

Lebih dari seribu pencari suaka tewas saat mencoba untuk sampai ke Australia dengan perahu . Tapi berapa banyak dari mereka bisa diselamatkan ? Pencarian Australia dan otoritas penyelamatan berdiri terdakwa dari penundaan yang tidak perlu , mengabaikan panggilan marabahaya dan melewati tanggung jawab Indonesia , yang tidak dilengkapi untuk melakukan operasi penyelamatan . Jess Bukit menyelidiki .


Sejak tahun 2001 , hampir 1.400 pencari suaka telah tenggelam antara Indonesia dan Australia . Lebih dari 300 telah tenggelam dalam 12 bulan terakhir saja . Mengapa begitu banyak pencari suaka tenggelam dalam perjalanan mereka ke Australia , dan kita bisa berbuat lebih banyak untuk menyelamatkan mereka ?


Latar Belakang Briefing telah melihat keadaan sekitar tenggelamnya empat kapal selama dua tahun terakhir , di mana lebih dari 400 pencari suaka tenggelam . Apa yang muncul adalah pola mengganggu penundaan , menutup- up dan kemacetan komunikasi .

Pada bulan Juni 2012, sebuah kapal nelayan sepanjang 20 meter dengan nama kode yang SIEV 358 tenggelam setengah jalan antara Indonesia dan Pulau Christmas . Perahu itu sudah penuh sesak dengan lebih dari 200 laki-laki dan anak laki-laki , sebagian besar warga Pakistan dan Afghanistan yang melarikan diri dari Taliban dan Al Qaeda . Penumpang telah membuat 16 panggilan untuk membantu otoritas keselamatan maritim Australia selama dua hari . Penelepon semakin tertekan mengatakan kapal rusak di satu sisi dan mengambil air , dan memohon untuk diselamatkan .

Pada awalnya saya tidak bisa percaya bahwa perahu kami telah tenggelam , tapi aku melihat mainan yang datang dari dalam perahu , melainkan datang dengan air. Ketika datang dekat dengan saya , saya menyadari bahwa tidak, itu bukan mainan . Itu masih kecil .
Esmat Adine , Hazara pencari suaka

Tapi tidak ada bantuan datang . Perahu itu sudah di Indonesia penelusuran dan zona penyelamatan , yang mencakup sebagian besar laut antara Indonesia dan Pulau Christmas , sehingga otoritas keselamatan maritim Australia mengalihkan tanggung jawab dengan mitra di Indonesia , BASARNAS .

Tiga puluh dua jam setelah panggilan darurat pertama dibuat , orang yang membuatnya – dan 101 lainnya – tewas .

Pengacara George Newhouse , yang telah bekerja pada tiga inquests coronial tenggelamnya kapal suaka , kata mendelegasikan ke BASARNAS tidak dapat diterima .

“Bagaimana bisa seorang otoritas keselamatan di tangan hati nurani yang baik alih tanggung jawab untuk menyelamatkan nyawa orang untuk sebuah organisasi yang mereka tahu tidak mampu memenuhi peran itu?” Katanya .

Kantor BASARNAS Indonesia di Jawa Barat , yang merespon kapal dalam kesusahan di pantai yang biasa digunakan oleh para penyelundup manusia , putus asa sakit-siap untuk melakukan laut terbuka menyelamatkan . Kepala operasi di sana , Rochmali , mengatakan semua yang mereka miliki mereka adalah perahu karet dan kapal-kapal nelayan tradisional, yang tidak bisa pergi lebih dari lima mil laut dari pantai .

Artikel ini merupakan bagian dari latar belakang yang lebih besar Briefing penyelidikan . Dengarkan laporan lengkap Jess Hill pada hari Minggu di 8:05 atau gunakan tautan di atas setelah siaran podcast .

Mantan diplomat Tony Kevin , yang telah menjadi kritikus vokal pencarian Australia dan otoritas penyelamatan sejak 353 orang tenggelam di perahu yang dikenal sebagai SIEVX , lebih langsung dalam kutukannya terhadap otoritas keselamatan maratime Australia .

” Apa yang menjadi perhatian saya sangat sekarang adalah bukti dari doktrin sistemik , terutama di dalam Otorita Keselamatan Maritim Australia ( AMSA ) – apa yang Anda sebut budaya sistemik skeptisisme dari pencari suaka klaim marabahaya . Sebuah semangat ” Kami lebih baik menunggu dan melihat apa yang terjadi ini, jika mereka benar-benar dalam kesulitan , karena kita sangat sering bahwa mereka tidak tahu ” . ‘

AMSA sangat menolak pernyataan ini dari Tony Kevin . Namun, pertanyaan tentang kapan panggilan dianggap panggilan darurat asli berada di jantung pemeriksaan coronial baru-baru ini ke para pencari suaka yang meninggal pada SIEV 358 .

Tapi ini bukan satu-satunya suaka kematian di laut Australia bisa dicegah .

Di tengah malam pada tanggal 17 Desember 2011, sebuah kapal pencari suaka yang disebut Barokah meninggalkan pantai Jawa dengan sekitar 250 pria, wanita dan anak-anak di atas kapal. Salah satunya adalah etnis Hazara pria , Esmat Adine . Perahu itu begitu penuh sesak , Adine bahkan tidak bisa menemukan tempat untuk duduk . Barokah adalah hanya 40 mil laut dari Indonesia ketika itu runtuh .

” Pada awalnya saya tidak bisa percaya bahwa perahu kami telah tenggelam , ” kenang Adine . “Tapi saya melihat mainan yang datang dari dalam perahu , melainkan datang dengan air. Ketika datang dekat dengan saya , saya menyadari bahwa tidak, itu bukan mainan . Itu masih kecil . Itu adalah anak bernama Daniel . Daniel adalah dengan ibunya , mereka duduk di depan saya , di samping saya, sementara kami datang dengan bus . Ketika saya melihat tubuh Daniel , aku menyadari bahwa perahu kami telah tenggelam , dan tidak ada harapan lagi bagi kita untuk hidup . ‘

Delapan jam kemudian , pada pukul 3 sore , sebuah perahu nelayan yang lewat menemukan sekitar seratus orang di laut lepas , sangat menempel ke puing-puing . Itu hanya bisa menyelamatkan 34 orang . Adine berteriak kepada orang-orang di dalam air , ” Bersabarlah – kami akan membawa Anda lebih banyak kapal , dan mereka akan menyelamatkan kamu . ”

Di Canberra malam itu , lembaga Australia menyadari Barokah itu tenggelam . Mereka mengatakan kepada pihak berwenang Indonesia , karena perahu itu dalam pencarian mereka dan zona penyelamatan .

Beberapa bulan kemudian , petugas bea cukai akan menceritakan Perkiraan Senat mendengar bahwa Indonesia awalnya menolak tawaran Australia untuk membantu upaya pencarian dan penyelamatan .

Tapi insiden waktu resmi, yang Fairfax diperoleh berdasarkan undang-undang kebebasan informasi , mengungkapkan bahwa BASARNAS , cari di Indonesia dan lembaga penyelamatan , telah meminta AMSA untuk mengkoordinasikan penyelamatan respon – AMSA menolak .

Selama dua hari , sedangkan laki-laki , perempuan dan anak-anak berjuang untuk bertahan hidup dalam gelombang hingga enam meter , Indonesia dan Australia tidak melakukan apa pun .

Akhirnya , pada 19 Desember , BASARNAS bertanya lagi untuk bantuan . Kali ini , AMSA setuju , dan dikirim aset angkatan laut dan Bea Cukai ke TKP .

Tapi itu sudah terlambat . Dua ratus dan satu orang tewas .

Pada bulan April tahun ini , pencari suaka lagi yang tersisa untuk tenggelam sebagai AMSA dan BASARNAS gagal untuk berkolaborasi efisien . Dilansir dari Indonesia , ABC koresponden George Roberts mengatakan , ” Semua kita sudah bisa mengetahui sejauh – kecuali hal telah berubah sejak malam – AMSA terakhir tidak membantu belum atau pihak berwenang Australia tidak membantu dan Indonesia belum hadn ‘ t meluncurkan pencarian sendiri . ‘

“Jadi , tampaknya menjadi jenis yang sama dari stand-off kami tahun lalu di mana Australia tahu ada masalah, Indonesia tidak mampu untuk dapat membantu dan sebagai hasilnya orang yang tersisa di dalam air selama berjam-jam . ”

Lima puluh delapan orang masih hilang .

Pada bulan Juni tahun ini , perahu lain tenggelam , kali ini mudah dijangkau dari kapal patroli Australia . Sebuah pesawat Bea Cukai terlihat itu 28 mil laut dari pulau – hanya empat kilometer di luar zona intersepsi nya . Sekitar 55 pria, wanita , dan anak-anak terlihat di geladak , melambai pesawat.

Setelah acara tersebut , pemerintah mengklaim perahu tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda visual marabahaya . Tapi dokumen resmi dari Pusat AMSA Rescue Koordinasi ( RCC ) , yang Fairfax lagi diperoleh berdasarkan undang-undang kebebasan informasi , menunjukkan bahwa Bea Cukai telah melaporkan perahu sebagai ‘ mati di dalam air ‘ , dan telah khawatir tentang perahu dari saat mereka melihat itu .

Seperti jam berlarut-larut , laksamana yang bertanggung jawab atas Komando Perlindungan Perbatasan menjadi semakin prihatin untuk keselamatan kapal , dan meminta RCC untuk memulai pencarian . Tapi AMSA menolak , mengatakan mereka masih menilai bukti. Ketika puing-puing terlihat , AMSA mengatakan , pengawasan kemudian akan pindah ke fase SAR .

Dua hari kemudian , kapal itu ditemukan , terbalik . Tiga belas mayat ditemukan . Tidak ada yang selamat .

Dengarkan laporan lengkap Jess Hill hari Minggu ini , ketika Background Briefing akan mengambil melihat forensik di belakang layar di AMSA dan bertanya : apakah kematian lebih dari 400 orang mudah dicegah ?

Sumber : ABC.net Background Briefing

Man attempts to board flight with rat down his trousers

Rats are a major risk to the health of the community. They can assist transmission of serious diseases, including the plague, dysentery, leptospirosis and typhus fever.

Their fleas, lice and ticks can also adversely affect pets and humans.

Their excreta and hair contaminate food and utensils, causing food poisoning and economic loss. Rat colonies damage and foul buildings and furnishings, and they generate a terrible smell.

Rats’ gnawing will damage buildings, pipes, conduits and wiring and has been the cause of electrical fires.

Rats normally come out at night and usually are not seen unless they are very hungry or present in large numbers.

Spot the rat

To check whether rats are around, look for:

  • droppings (12mm to 18mm long)
  • debris such as snail shells with the sides eaten out, almond shells, cape lilac berries, chop bones, etc left in the corners of sheds, under homes and other secluded spots
  • signs of fruit and vegetables having been eaten
  • greasy rub marks along paths they travel
  • burrow holes around buildings
  • signs of gnawing damage
  • pet dogs, cats, birds being more excitable than usual
  • squeaking, gnawing or movement noises in walls, cupboard and ceilings and under floors

Avoiding rat problems

Rats can be discouraged and controlled by denying them food and shelter. A few simple precautions will prevent or help get rid of them:

 

  • store firewood away from the sides of sheds and fences and keep it well clear (40cm) off the ground
  • regularly remove or limit garden waste or other disused material in sheds or around your yard
  • remove fruit and nuts from trees or vines at the end of the season
  • block holes and other potential access points around all buildings
  • keep pet food dishes clean and store bulk pet food supplies in a manner which denies access to rats
  • rubbish bins and compost containers should be well maintained and free from holes. Meat scraps must never be composted
  • thoroughly examine your property to ensure you have discouraged rats from making your home their home

For further information read the  Facts on rats brochure (PDF 153KB)

Wales Air Forum

Man attempts to board flight with rat down his trousersBy Tom Irwin
A man was briefly detained at Melbourne international airport after attempting to pass through a body scanner with a live rat down his trousers.A spokeswoman for the airport, Anna Gillett, told the Herald Sun that the passenger had wanted to take his pet rat on board the aircraft.

“The passenger was obviously not allowed to do that, so he chose not to fly without the animal,” she added.

The aircraft is understood to have been bound for London, according to a caller to radio station3AW.

Ms. Gillett said the Australian Federal Police were called to deal with the incident, which occurred Sunday afternoon local time.

Police confirmed the passenger “voluntarily offloaded themselves from the flight”, was not arrested and was allowed to leave the airport.

Sourced from Travel Weekly

View original post

Australia: Mini tornado rips through homes and businesses in Kingston – 040813 1635z

The community and council in the tiny town of Kingston have begun counting the cost of a tornado which unexpectedly ripped through homes and businesses and tossed bricks, tiles and fences through the air on Saturday.

Roofs were lost on at least 25 properties, including two businesses and a two-story house which SES volunteers spent four hours trying to secure with tarpaulin that night.

Homes, businesses and infrastructure in the path of the ‘Kingston tornado’ as it is being called by locals, were severely damaged and left in shambles. The State Emergency Service sent support crews to Kingston, 300 kilometres south-east of Adelaide, from as far away as southern Adelaide and Murray Bridge More than a dozen roofs were lost, powerlines down and electricity poles bent. It is impossible to know exactly how fast the wind was spinning because Kingston does not have a local weather station.

Sunday, 04 August, 2013 at 04:31 (04:31 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

Small tornado rips up roofs, uproots trees in South Australia town of Kingston

Sunday August 4, 2013 – 12:04 EST

“The clean-up will continue today after a storm, described as a “small-scale tornado”, ripped up roofs in Kingston, in south-east South Australia.

The cold front hit the coastal town, about 300km south-east of Adelaide, just before 1:00pm (ACST) yesterday, uprooting trees, bringing down power lines and damaging about 25 homes.

Power was restored to about 1,000 homes in the area overnight.

The Bureau of Meteorology described the storm as consistent with a small-scale tornado.

Local Alex Walter said the storm swept through the area quickly.

“It’s definitely the worst thing that’s gone through the town in my time of 40 or so years here,” he said.

State Emergency Service (SES) duty officer Craig Brassington said about 20 volunteers were sent from Adelaide to help.

“We’ll continue to mop up today, plus going around we’ll make sure that the tarps that we put on yesterday… are all basically tied up and secure,” ” he said.

– ABC

Mini tornado clean up at Kingston

Mini tornado in Kingston
(Photo: John Waters/bordermail.com.au)

(Photo: South Australia Police)

Shed obliterated, 32 kilometres outside of Kingston. (Photo: David Rasheed/bordermail.com.au)

“The community and council in the tiny town of Kingston have begun counting the cost of a tornado which unexpectedly ripped through homes and businesses and tossed bricks, tiles and fences through the airon Saturday.

Roofs were lost on at least 25 properties, including two businesses and a two-story house which SES volunteers spent four hours trying to secure with tarpaulin that night.

“Today we’ll spend revisiting each property to sure the tarps are properly secured, that everything is safe,” said the SES’sCraig Brassington.

“It was amazing. Only about four streets were affected, between the lighthouse and the water tower.”

Not so, according to David Rasheed, who has property 32 kilometres north-east of Kingston.

“A 10 metre by fortymetreshed was completely blown to pieces –iron was strewn all across the place, wrapped around trees and up the hill. Trees were uprooted and torn in half and limbs were everywhere,” he said.

A community meeting will be held at the school at 1pm. Police, council, relief agencies and SES will attend.

Kingston deputy mayor Chris England visited the affected area.

“People a few streets away didn’t even know it had happened. It was very narrow where it hit. We’ve had a good response from emergency services,” he said.

Councillor England said hard rubbish debris could be left behind the council depot.

Kelly Mules’ didn’t know something big was about to happen at lunch time on Saturday but herdog certainly did.

It was around 12.30pm whenthe pooch started whining at the back door and, on hearing the rain,Ms Mules went to investigate.

“So I was standing at my back door and I was like, what the hell,” Ms Mules recalled to Fairfax Regional Media.

“There were roof tiles up in the air, big sheets of iron, debris, all flying through the air. It looked like I watching tv.

“I’ve never seen anything so eerie and scary in all my life … I was just worried about that debris, there was so much and it was going so fast, it would’ve killed someone had it hit them.”

Homes, businesses andinfrastructure in the path of the ‘Kingston tornado’ as it is being called by locals, were severely damaged and left in shambles.

The State Emergency Service sent support crews to Kingston, 300 kilometres south-east of Adelaide,from as far away assouthern Adelaide and Murray Bridge

More than a dozen roofs were lost, powerlines downand electricity poles bent.

It is impossible to know exactly how fast the wind was spinning because Kingston does not have a local weather station.

However, Weatherzone meteorologist Kim Westcott said it was likely gusting up to nearly 90kmh.

“To cause structural damage as has happened, sustained wind speed of between 76 to 87 kilometres per hour would be necessary,” she said.” – bordermail

Indonesia: Boat carrying about 170 sinks. 4 dead, 157 rescued, others missing – 240713 2230z

A boat carrying as many as 170 suspected asylum seekers bound for Australia has sunk off the south coast of Indonesia, with up to 60 people feared dead or missing, Australian media reported on Wednesday.

The latest mishap at sea involving boat people came less than a week after Australia slammed the door on would-be refugees with a deal to send all boat arrivals to Papua New Guinea for assessment and eventual settlement.

As many as 170 people were on board the vessel, which broke up in heavy seas late on Tuesday, News Ltd reported.

More than 100 people, mostly from Iran and Sri Lanka, were rescued by fisherman in the area overnight, it said.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) confirmed that a rescue operation was underway, without providing further information.

“Indonesian authorities are coordinating the rescue of that incident. AMSA is not involved at this stage,” a spokeswoman for the authority said. Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue (Basarnas) was not immediately available for comment.

Wednesday, 24 July, 2013 at 04:01 (04:01 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

Al Jazeera:

Deaths after refugee boat sinks off Indonesia

Three people confirmed dead and others missing after asylum-seeker boat bound for Australia breaks up off coast of Java.

Three people are confirmed drowned and more deaths are feared after an asylum-seeker boat bound for Australia sank off West Java in Indonesia.

Australian media reported that the boat was carrying up to 170 people, mostly refugees from Sri Lanka and Iran, when it broke up and sank in heavy seas on Tuesday evening.

Indonesian authorities said that they had found 157 people alive and four dead, and searches were ongoing on Wednesday for others. They said the passengers were from Iran, Sri Lanka and possibly Iraq.

“We don’t know exactly how many were on board, so we’re focusing on searching for any more that may be out there,” Bandung search and rescue chief Rochmali told AFP early on Wednesday, adding the figure would likely be between 100 and 200.

“We will just focus on ensuring they’re well and making sure no one else is still at sea,” he said.

The Sydney Daily Telegraph, reporting from Java, said the engine of the boat started smoking and taking on water shortly after departure.

A man calling himself Soheil told the newspaper that he was the sole survivor of a group of 61 Iranians who set off from the fishing village of Cidaun.

Canberra’s new asylum policy

Hundreds have drowned making the same journey to Australia. Only a few days ago four people died in a boat that sank off Christmas Island, Australia.

The latest disaster on Wednesday came just days after Canberra announced a hardline new plan to send all unauthorised arrivals to its shores to Papua New Guinea.

Asylum-seekers arriving in Australian waters will now be sent to the Manus Island processing centre in Papua New Guinea and elsewhere in the Pacific nation for assessment, with no cap on the number that can be transferred.

They will not have chance to settle in Australia and will only allowed to live in Papua New Guinea if their asylum claims are approved.

‘Hollow and hypocritical’

Human rights groups have expressed outrage at Australia’s decision.

The Refugee Council of Australia said on Tuesday that the arrangement would exacerbate the regions challenges with people movement by undermining efforts to improve refugee protection for those who most needed it.

Paul Power, the council’s chief executive, said that Australia could not outsource its Refugee Convention responsibilities to a much poorer neighbour and remain credible in advocating that other nations improve protection standards for refugees.

“By unreasonably shifting its responsibilities for asylum seekers to Papua New Guinea through this Regional Resettlement Arrangement (RRA), Australias international advocacy for responsibility sharing has been exposed as hollow and hypocritical,” Power said in a written statement.

This arrangement is without precedent in the world. It cannot possibly be presented as an example of regional co-operation because it is little more than a wealthy country paying a much weaker neighbour to take on its international responsibilities to people seeking asylum. ” – aljazeera

Videos

Asylum boat sinks off Java


(Video credit: 7NEWS)

Published on Jul 23, 2013

Up to 60 people are feared dead after an asylum seeker boat headed to Australia sank off the coast of Indonesia.

3 dead and 157 saved after asylum seeker boat sinks

(Video credit: Zoominuk)

Published on Jul 24, 2013

At least three people, two of them children, died on Tuesday, when a boat carrying would-be asylum seekers to Australia sunk in Indonesia waters. An official said more than 150 survivors had been rescued, mostly from Iran and Iraq, but it was unclear how many more might be missing.

Australia: Tropical Cyclone #ZANE LOW/SS-TS Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Mapoon to Cape York to Coen has been CANCELLED – 020513 0750z

(Image: wunderground.com) Western Pacific Previous 24 hrs IR4 Sat (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Zane

Issued at 4:14 am EST Thursday 2 May 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 20.

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Strong Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Mapoon to Cape York to Coen has been CANCELLED.

At 3:00am EST Thursday, Ex – Tropical Cyclone Zane was estimated to be 160 kilometres east of Lockhart River and moving west northwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Gusty thunderstorms are expected over the Peninsula district today and may generate some locally heavy rainfall. This activity is not expected to be widespread and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued as necessary.

Name:Ex-Tropical Cyclone Zane

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 3 am May 2 tropical low 12.9S 144.8E 75
+6hr 9 am May 2 tropical low 12.3S 143.3E 80
+12hr 3 pm May 2 tropical low 11.8S 141.7E 100
+18hr 9 pm May 2 tropical low 11.3S 140.0E 125
+24hr 3 am May 3 tropical low 10.8S 138.0E 145
+36hr 3 pm May 3 tropical low 9.8S 133.7E 185
+48hr 3 am May 4 tropical low 8.9S 129.3E 220

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system.

 

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Brisbane

 

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30pm EST on Thursday the 2nd of May 2013 and valid until end of

Sunday

 

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

 

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop

over the next three days.

 

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday: Very low

Saturday: Very low

Sunday: Very low

 

This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the 2012/13 season. The next

Tropical Cyclone Outlook will be issued on the 1st November 2013.

 

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a

tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% – 20%,

Moderate: 20% – 50% High: Over 50%

 

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea

west of 160E.

 

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

 

 

Preparing for Cyclones Brochure

MARITIME

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

 

PRIORITY

Coastal Waters Wind Warning

For coastal waters from Torres Strait to Cooktown

Issued at 4:05 pm EST on Thursday 2 May 2013

 

Synoptic Situation

A high pressure system [1029 hPa] over Victoria is expected to push a strengthening ridge up the east coast of Queensland during Friday.

 

Strong Wind Warning

Torres Strait to Cooktown

SE winds increasing to 25 to 30 knots during Friday afternoon. Seas rising to 3 metres outside the reef.

 

The next warning will be issued by 11 pm AEST.

 

Please be aware

Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

 

————————– End of warning —————————-

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Zane track (Click image for source)

WTPS31 PGTW 012100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 005//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ZANE) WARNING NR 005

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

011800Z — NEAR 12.5S 144.5E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 144.5E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

020600Z — 11.3S 142.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:

012100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 143.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ZANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-

NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

REVEALS AN ELONGATING AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED 185 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 011731Z

SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE

SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY POOR AS THE CONVECTION HAS FURTHER

DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35

KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 30

TO 35 KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS

REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG TO MODERATE (20-30

KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS PERSISTED OVER

THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A POOR

UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND

PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23P WILL

DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THESE

POOR CONDITIONS AND WILL FURTHER UNRAVEL AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE

CAPE YORK PENINSULA. DUE TO THE OVERALL POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE

SYSTEM AND FORECAST UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS THE

FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR

HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18

FEET.//

NNNN

 

Cyclone Zane Wednesday Evening Webcast

 

This webcast from our partners at OZCYCLONECHASERStakes a look at what has gone wrong with Zane and why he is dying as he approaches the coast.

Even though the storm has weakened cyclone warnings remain in effect in areas south of the center of circulation. Gale force winds are expected and heavy rainfall near coastal regions. The storm will quickly die out after making landfall. westernpacificweather.com

Outlook

Indonesia: Deadly delays after boat carrying 72 sinks in Sunda Strait, at least 5 dead (likely to increase), only 14 rescued – 120413 1300z

“A GROUP of 14 asylum seekers has been rescued by fishermen in Indonesia after their boat sank in the Sunda Strait on its way to Australia, but at least five others are believed to have drowned.

File:Sunda strait map v3.png

(Image: wikipedia.org)
Sunda Strait
(Click image for source)

There are also fresh details about the unfolding tragedy with one of the survivors revealing that boat actually sank on Wednesday, and not on Friday morning as initially reported by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA).

Habibullah Hashimi, one of 14 men plucked from the water by fishermen off the coast of Sukabumi in West Java, said he was in the water for about 24 hours before help finally came.

The 29-year-old said there were 72 people aboard the vessel. All were ethnic Hazara from Afghanistan.

At least five asylum seekers had perished, Mr Hashimi said.

The death toll could rise further.

”The ship just broke,” he told AAP.

”We saw about five people dead. They were in the water.”

Mr Hashimi’s group had linked arms as they struggled to survive.

”The sea kept moving us around,” he said.

Mr Hashimi, who was on Friday afternoon recuperating in Bogor, also confirmed that the boat sank at about 8am on Wednesday.

The development came after a spokeswoman from the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) initially reported that a boat may have sunk in the Sunda Strait at about midnight (3am AEST) on Friday.

”A people-smuggling vessel may have sunk in or near the Sunda Strait around 3am AEST today. Some passengers may have been rescued by a fishing vessel,” the spokeswoman said earlier on Friday.

The information was in turn passed on to the Indonesian national search and rescue agency BASARNAS.

But BASARNAS was unable to locate the area where the incident was believed to have occurred, prompting a scramble for information.

Provincial search and rescue offices in Jakarta and Lampung on the island of Sumatra also had little idea of what had happened, or where to look for survivors.

”We don’t have the coordinates for the area where we could search. Do you have that information? Please share it with us,” an officer with the Jakarta search and rescue office said when contacted by AAP.

”We only received information from BASARNAS that it’s in south of Sunda Strait and they’ve been rescued by local fishermen. But where is it? We’re now contacting local ports and others if they have such information.”

And Indonesia still hasn’t launched a rescue mission because the location of the sunken vessel hasn’t been found.

The search and rescue authorities were criticised last August when more than 100 asylum seekers drowned when their boat foundered in the Sunda Strait.

An aerial search was not launched until more than six hours after a distress call was received by the AMSA.

It was almost 24 hours before the first survivors were pulled from the water.

Hundreds of asylum seekers have perished in recent years while making the perilous crossing from Indonesia to Christmas Island.” – news.com.au

“JAKARTA (AFP) – Indonesia’s search and rescue agency said on Friday it was investigating a report from Australian authorities that an asylum seeker boat carrying scores of people may have sunk.

“We received information there were 72 people on board, and that 14 have been rescued by fishermen” after the vessel sank in the Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra islands early Friday, said agency official Tatang Zaenudin.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said in a statement it had passed information to the Indonesian authorities that a boat may have gone down in the strait, but it had not been requested to provide assistance.

A seven-strong team was heading by road to the Sukabumi area, in West Java, where those rescued were believed to have been taken, Indonesian officials said.” – straitstimes.com

Indonesian:

“Sebuah GROUP dari 14 pencari suaka telah diselamatkan oleh nelayan di Indonesia setelah kapal mereka tenggelam di Selat Sunda dalam perjalanan ke Australia, tapi setidaknya lima orang lainnya diyakini telah tenggelam.

File: Selat Sunda peta v3.png
(Gambar: wikipedia.org)
Selat Sunda
(Klik gambar untuk sumber)

Ada juga rincian baru tentang tragedi berlangsung dengan salah satu korban mengungkapkan kapal yang benar-benar tenggelam pada Rabu, dan bukan pada Jumat pagi sebagai awalnya dilaporkan oleh Otoritas Keselamatan Maritim Australia (AMSA).

Habibullah Hashimi, salah satu dari 14 pria dipetik dari air oleh nelayan di lepas pantai Sukabumi di Jawa Barat, mengatakan ia berada di air selama sekitar 24 jam sebelum bantuan akhirnya datang.

The 29-tahun itu mengatakan ada 72 orang di kapal. Semua adalah etnis Hazara dari Afghanistan.

Setidaknya lima pencari suaka telah tewas, Mr Hashimi kata.

Jumlah korban tewas bisa meningkat lebih lanjut.

” Kapal hanya patah,” katanya kepada AAP.

” Kami melihat sekitar lima orang tewas. Mereka berada di air.”

Kelompok Mr Hashimi telah dihubungkan lengan saat mereka berjuang untuk bertahan hidup.

” Laut terus bergerak kami berkeliling,” katanya.

Mr Hashimi, yang berada di memulihkan diri hari Jumat sore di Bogor, juga menegaskan bahwa perahu tenggelam di sekitar 8 pagi pada hari Rabu.

Perkembangan datang setelah seorang juru bicara dari Otoritas Keselamatan Maritim Australia (AMSA) awalnya melaporkan bahwa perahu mungkin telah tenggelam di Selat Sunda di sekitar tengah malam (3 am AEST) pada hari Jumat.

” Sebuah penyelundupan manusia kapal mungkin telah tenggelam di atau dekat Selat Sunda sekitar 3 am AEST hari. Beberapa penumpang mungkin telah diselamatkan oleh sebuah kapal penangkap ikan,” kata juru bicara sebelumnya pada hari Jumat.

Informasi itu pada gilirannya diteruskan ke pencarian nasional Indonesia dan BASARNAS penyelamatan lembaga.

Tapi BASARNAS tidak dapat menemukan daerah di mana insiden itu diyakini telah terjadi, memicu perebutan informasi.

Pencarian provinsi dan kantor penyelamatan di Jakarta dan Lampung di pulau Sumatera juga memiliki sedikit gagasan tentang apa yang telah terjadi, atau di mana untuk mencari korban yang selamat.

” Kami tidak memiliki koordinat untuk daerah di mana kita bisa mencari. Apakah Anda memiliki informasi itu? Silakan berbagi dengan kami,” kata seorang perwira dengan pencarian Jakarta dan kantor penyelamatan saat dihubungi oleh AAP.

” Kami hanya menerima informasi dari BASARNAS bahwa itu di selatan Selat Sunda dan mereka telah diselamatkan oleh nelayan setempat. Tapi di mana itu? Kami sekarang menghubungi pelabuhan lokal dan lain-lain jika mereka memiliki informasi tersebut.”

Dan Indonesia masih belum meluncurkan misi penyelamatan karena lokasi kapal tenggelam belum ditemukan.

Pihak berwenang pencarian dan penyelamatan dikritik Agustus lalu ketika lebih dari 100 pencari suaka tenggelam ketika perahu mereka kandas di Selat Sunda.

Sebuah pencarian udara belum diluncurkan sampai lebih dari enam jam setelah panggilan darurat diterima oleh AMSA tersebut.

Itu hampir 24 jam sebelum korban pertama ditarik dari air.

Ratusan pencari suaka telah tewas dalam beberapa tahun terakhir sementara membuat persimpangan berbahaya dari Indonesia ke Pulau Christmas “- news.com.au.

“JAKARTA (AFP) – Indonesia pencarian dan penyelamatan lembaga Jumat mengatakan pihaknya sedang menyelidiki laporan dari pemerintah Australia bahwa pencari suaka kapal yang membawa puluhan orang mungkin telah tenggelam.

“Kami menerima informasi ada 72 orang di kapal, dan 14 telah diselamatkan oleh nelayan” setelah kapal tenggelam di Selat Sunda antara pulau Jawa dan Sumatera Jumat pagi, kata lembaga resmi Tatang Zaenudin.

The Maritime Safety Authority Australia (AMSA) mengatakan dalam sebuah pernyataan bahwa pihaknya telah menyampaikan informasi kepada pihak berwenang Indonesia bahwa perahu mungkin sudah turun di selat tersebut, tapi belum diminta untuk memberikan bantuan.

Sebuah tim tujuh yang kuat sedang menuju melalui jalan darat ke daerah Sukabumi, Jawa Barat, di mana mereka diselamatkan diyakini telah diambil, para pejabat Indonesia mengatakan “-. Straitstimes.com

Tropical Cyclone 22S #VICTORIA Low(SS-TS) 120300Z near 24.4S 106.4E, moving SSE at 08 knots (JTWC final) – 120413 0905z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Victoria

Issued at 2:40 am WST Friday 12 April 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Victoria has weakened over open waters well to the west of the Western Australian mainland.

Name:Ex-Tropical Cyclone Victoria

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am April 12 tropical low 21.0S 105.3E 55
+6hr 8 am April 12 tropical low 22.1S 105.7E 75
+12hr 2 pm April 12 tropical low 23.7S 106.4E 100
+18hr 8 pm April 12 tropical low 25.8S 107.3E 120
+24hr 2 am April 13 tropical low 27.5S 107.7E 150
+36hr 2 pm April 13 tropical low 30.4S 107.6E 185
+48hr 2 am April 14 tropical low 31.6S 105.4E 220

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.

MARITIME

Ocean Wind Warning 1

40:2:1:04:55S075E35095:11:00
IDY21000
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 0526UTC 12 APRIL 2013
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS

PLEASE BE AWARE 
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Vigorous flow associated with cold front near 44S118E 50S126E at 120600UTC.
Forecast 43S128E 50S134E at 121800UTC and 43S139E 50S144E at 130600UTC.

Area Affected
Bounded by 46S122E 44S126E 44S140E 50S139E 50S124E 46S122E.

Forecast
W/NW winds 30/40 knots within 360nm east of front shifting W/SW 30/40 knots west
of trough. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

Ocean Wind Warning 2

40:2:1:04:55S075E50060:11:00
IDY21010
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological and Oceanographic
Centre
AT 0607UTC 12 APRIL 2013
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA

PLEASE BE AWARE 
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Situation
Vigorous flow developing around a low 1004 hPa near 31.5S099E at 120600UTC.
Forecast 1005 hPa near 30.5S097.5E at 121800UTC, 1006 hPa near 29S097E at
130600UTC.

Area Affected
Bounded by 28S092E 28S095E 31S098E 31S104E 35S104E 35S098E 31S092E 28S092E.

Forecast
SE quarter winds 34/45 knots developing by 120900UTC. Very rough seas. Moderate
to heavy swell.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 23.1S 106.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 160 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 106.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 28.1S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 106.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (VICTORIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 22S HAS ALMOST FULLY DISSIPATED UNDER THE STEADILY
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER
AUSTRALIA. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF WEAKENING, TC 22S WILL
BE FULLY DISSIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAJOR FACTORS IN
THE WEAKENING TREND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo
(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-
00 GMT 04/09/13 11.6S 102.3E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 04/09/13 13.3S 102.4E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 04/10/13 14.8S 103.7E 70 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 04/10/13 16.2S 103.9E 90 Category 1
00 GMT 04/11/13 17.6S 104.1E 70 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 04/11/13 19.8S 105.0E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 04/12/13 23.1S 106.1E 40 Tropical Storm

Cyclone Smart - Click to download the guide

Australia: Tornado batters Victoria’s NE, injuring 20, leaving some towns devastated & 300 homeless – 220313 1850z

A tornado has battered Victoria’s northeast, injuring 20 people and leaving some towns looking like a bomb has exploded

(Video credit: Youtube user Jtec777 Tornado in Yarrawonga, Victoria, Australia)

The fierce storms hit the Murray River towns of Bundalong, Yarrawonga, Mulwala, Rutherglen, Koonoomoo and Cobram last night. Moira Shire Mayor Brian Keenan says he’s never seen such extensive damage in his four decades as a SES and CFA brigade leader.

He says several houses at Bundalong, home to about 300 people, have been destroyed and most others are damaged. “It is absolutely incredible. You would think an atom bomb went off,” Keenan said. He said massive trees were ripped out of the ground and several hundred metres of power lines had fallen. “How there wasn’t lives lost is beyond me,” he said. Further west, Barooga Post Office manager Max Steward said the storm lasted only five minutes and ripped the back verandah off, blowing it about 30 metres into the street. “It just was like a mini tornado,” he said. “A couple of houses down the road … were literally blown apart by the force of the wind.”

Steward, 65, said there was no warning the storm was about to strike. “It just came out of nowhere just like a low-flying aeroplane – it just roared though,” he said. He said after five minutes the wind died down. “You can look out our window here and see the bush between here and Cobram and it’s just like a lawnmower has gone across the top of the trees – trees that were 60 foot high, or they were.

Unbelievable it was.” Barooga Sports Club assistant chief executive Greg Ferguson said hundreds of trees at the Cobram Barooga Golf Club were uprooted and flung across the fairways. Part of the club roof was torn off, the windows blown-in and a section of the ceiling collapsed. “There is a section of a roof in one of our trees near the first tee that has got to be about six or seven metres square,” Ferguson said. One third of the building remained closed however one course remained open, he said.

Twenty people were injured, with most treated at the Yarrawonga Hospital, while four with more serious injuries were flown to Melbourne. State Control Centre forecaster Tony Bannister said tornadoes of such force were not unheard of but rare for Victoria. He said initial reports suggested the tornado would have involved winds of between 180 and 250km/h. Two men in their 50s were flown to Melbourne hospitals in critical conditions. Both were suffering head injuries while one also had pelvic and abdominal injuries.

Friday, 22 March, 2013 at 04:10 (04:10 AM) UTC RSOE

News Reports

Two Australian men made a dramatic escape from a tornado in New South Wales after the twister touched down only metres from their car.

Daniel Clarke, 24, told Australia’s 7 News channel how he was driving from the town of Mulwala to nearby Barooga when the tornado, which was around 50 metres wide at its base, appeared in a field next to them.

Nearby power lines exploded with a blue flash as they were hit by the whirling column of air.

With rain and debris hammering the windscreen as the tornado advances towards them, Mr Clarke reverses at speed before performing a hand-brake turn in the road.

But the twister continues to barrel through the adjoining field, travelling almost parallel to their car at a speed of approximately 50mph.

More here: telegraph.co.uk

Twenty people have been hospitalised, with one man in a critical condition suffering a fractured skull, after a series of tornadoes swept across Victoria’s northeast and fierce winds lashed the rest of the state.

Caravans were upended, roofs ripped off houses and buildings damaged as the tornado hit about 8pm (NZDT) yesterday, an SES spokesman said.

The tornado swept along Murray River townships near Bundalong, Rutherglen and Yarrawonga.

The SES fielded 60 calls for help in the region with 20 people hospitalised for injuries, according to the Herald Sun.

The newspaper also reported that a series of “mini-tornadoes” had hit the region. The injuries and damage in northeast Victoria came as strong winds felled trees and damaged buildings across the state.

The SES spokesman said the greatest trauma risk was from falling buildings and roofs.

“It becomes dangerous and deadly debris,” he said.

While the weather appeared to be a tornado, authorities had not yet officially confirmed it, the SES spokesman said.

“It definitely has tornado-like patterns. Certainly that’s what it looks like,” he said. He said powerlines in the area are likely to be down.

SES volunteers have responded to more than 750 calls across the state since midnight on Wednesday amid wind gusts exceeding 100km/h.

Strong winds had hit Healesville, Nunawading and outer eastern metropolitan Melbourne, but the damage has been widespread.” – news.msn.co.nz

World Health Organization Warns Of Drug Resistant ‘Global’ Flu

TheSurvivalPlaceBlog

Unknown-1

H1N1 Swine flu is thought to have killed 200,000 people globally and Australian experts are concerned that the disease now has much more potent pandemic potential than it had before.

Tamiflu (oseltamivir) is now powerless against the strain  H1N1pdm09 that has been found in people in the community rather than sick patients with serious underlying conditions and weak immune systems. Zanamivir (Relenza) still has some effect but it is not widely held in stock in the community or in hospitals.

Lead investigator Dr Aeron Hurt, from the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne, said:

“The greatest concern is that these resistant viruses could spread globally, similar to that seen in 2008 when the former seasonal H1N1 virus developed oseltamivir (Tamiflu) resistance and spread worldwide in less than 12 months.”

The new strain is emerging in people who have never been treated with…

View original post 360 more words

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone Tim

Issued at 4:52 pm EST Saturday 16 March 2013. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone – Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone – Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Strong Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Tim is forecast to move slowly southwestward during the next 24 to 48 hours and weaken below tropical cyclone strength.

In the longer term, the remnant low is forecast to move west-northwest towards the tropical Queensland coast next week. This should bring a general increase in showers and rain areas about the Central Coast, Herbert and Burdekin and North Tropical Coast districts from Tuesday onwards.

Name:Tropical Cyclone Tim

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm March 16 1 17.1S 153.9E 35
+6hr 10 pm March 16 1 17.3S 153.6E 60
+12hr 4 am March 17 1 17.5S 153.4E 80
+18hr 10 am March 17 1 17.8S 153.2E 105
+24hr 4 pm March 17 tropical low 17.8S 152.9E 130
+36hr 4 am March 18 tropical low 17.9S 152.5E 165
+48hr 4 pm March 18 tropical low 17.9S 151.8E 200

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Saturday

IDQ20066
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:50 pm EST on Saturday 16 March 2013
At 4 pm EST Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Tim (Category 1) with central pressure
995 hPa was located over the northwest Coral Sea near latitude 17.1 south
longitude 153.9 east, which is about 870 km east of Cairns and 425 km east
southeast of Willis Is.

Tropical Cyclone Tim is moving south southwest at about 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Tim is forecast to move slowly southwestward during the next
24 to 48 hours and weaken below tropical cyclone strength.

In the longer term, the remnant low is forecast to move west-northwest towards
the tropical Queensland coast next week. This should bring a general increase
in showers and rain areas about the Central Coast, Herbert and Burdekin and
North Tropical Coast districts from Tuesday onwards.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 pm EST.

 

Maritime

IDQ20009
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0655UTC 16 MARCH 2013

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Tim was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal one south (17.1S)
longitude one hundred and fifty three decimal nine east (153.9E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, reaching 130 nautical miles in the
southwest quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0600 UTC 17
March.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre, reaching 130 nautical
miles from the centre in the southwest quadrant. Seas rough to very rough and
moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 16 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 17.5 south 153.4 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 17 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 17.8 south 152.9 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 16 March 2013.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Graphic (Click image for Source)

WTPS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TIM) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 17.3S 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 153.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 17.6S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 17.8S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 18.0S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 153.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED WITH STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY
FEEDING INTO THE CENTRAL CORE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND A SHRINKING OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON A 2.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 160140Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW CALEDONIA INTO THE CORAL SEA
ARE CREATING A MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT. TC 20P IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF A WEAKENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND WILL SHIFT TO A
WESTERN TRACK AS A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD, THE STEADY VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. BASED ON THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS, AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE VARIATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Tim

(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type

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18 GMT 03/13/13 13S 146.6E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/14/13 14.9S 149.7E 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/14/13 15.3S 152.0E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/15/13 16.1S 154.1E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/15/13 17.1S 154.3E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/16/13 17.3S 153.9E 40 Tropical Storm