New Caledonia/ Vanuatu: Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P) 091200Z position near 21.4S 168.4E , moving SE 11 kt (RSMC Nadi) – Updated 09 May 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P)

Currently impacting New Caledonia

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET.(JTWC)

Scroll down for HURRICANE WARNING for shipping

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 57 issued 1319 UTC Tuesday 9 May 2017

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm May 9 3 21.4S 168.4E 165
+6hr 6 pm May 9 3 22.1S 168.7E 195
+12hr 12 am May 10 2 22.9S 169.1E 220
+18hr 6 am May 10 2 23.7S 169.5E 250
+24hr 12 pm May 10 2 24.8S 170.3E 280
+36hr 12 am May 11 2 27.4S 172.2E 340
+48hr 12 pm May 11 2 31.0S 175.1E 400
+60hr 12 am May 12 2 34.6S 178.9E 485
+72hr 12 pm May 12 2 37.5S 177.0W 570

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 091350 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 168.4E AT
091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING,
T4.5/4.5/W2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 10000 UTC 22.9S 169.1E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 24.8S 170.3E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 27.4S 172.2E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 31.0S 175.1E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DONNA is currently located near 20.1 S 167.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DONNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DONNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Noum’ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) Warning #23
Issued at 09/0900z

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 20.1S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 167.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 21.6S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.2S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 25.4S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 28.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 090432Z 91 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS INTRODUCING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THUS IMPEDING THE
POLEWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC DONNA IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO
COOLER WATERS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
REGION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC DONNA WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane wind damage

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/animations/images/hurricane_winddamage.swf

Map of Vanuatu with its capital Port Vila, located on its third largest island. (From Wikipedia)

FBC logo

Cyclone Donna intensifies to Category 4

18:41 6 May 2017 (Local Time)

Taken from/By: FBC News
Report by: Akosita Talei

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna has now intensified to a category four system with central pressure of 965 heta pascal destructive hurricane force winds estimated at about 90 knots close to the centre.

TC Donna was located 700km northwest of Port Vila or 1560km west-northwest of Nadi at mid-day today.

Fiji Meteorology Director Ravindra Kumar says it’s moving west-southwest at about 13km/hr and gradually turning southwards and expected to track towards New Caledonia and Southern Vanuatu.

He adds that although TC Donna still lies in favourable environment for further intensification, it’s expected to encounter unfavourable environmental conditions as it turns and tracks in a southerly direction.

He says Fiji is not directly threatened by TC Donna, however associated strong winds will affect Fiji waters and a strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters.

Expect rough seas with east to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, gusting to 30 knots.

Strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters and Occasional showers expected. Isolated heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 091308 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4 SOUTH
168.4 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 168.4E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.9S 169.1E AT 10000 UTC
AND NEAR 24.8S 168.5E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 053.

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Norfolk Island/ NZ /New Caledonia: Tropical Cyclone COOK 16P 111500Z position nr 27.0S 168.8E, moving SE 13 kt (JTWC) – Updated 11 Apr 2017 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone COOK (16P)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: Apr 11, 2017, 12:00:00 AM GMT @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 16P (Cook) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 11/1500Z

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
111200Z — NEAR 26.6S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 168.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 28.3S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 168.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 111141Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING AN
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC REGION, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

===========================================================================

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 110152 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6S 166.0E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SECTOR FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST.
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO DECREASED. CYCLONE LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 26-27 DEGREES CELCIUS. COOK IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 1/3
DEGRESS INTO STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDS, DT=3.5 MET 3.5 AND
PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS. CI HELD
HIGH DUE TO CI RULES FOR WEAKENING.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 26.1S 167.9E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.4S 170.1E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 28.9S 172.5E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON COOK.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0346 UTC 11-Apr-2017

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E at 11/0000UTC today or about 140nm south of Noumea, New
Caledonia, moving south at 10 knots. Maximum winds near the centre
were estimated to be 55 knots with gales extending up to 120nm from
the centre.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 12-Apr-2017

Tropical Cyclone Cook (980hPa, Category 2) was located near 24.6S
166E, or about bout 140nm south of Noumea, New Caledonia, at
11/0000UTC today and is currently moving south out of the Tropics.

Tropical depression, TD19F, (994hPa) was analysed near 26.0S 169.3W,
or about 430nm southeast of Nukualofa, Tonga at 11/0000UTC today. The
system has low potential to develop into a TC, and is expected to
drift slowly northwards towards Niue over the next 24 hours.

OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 15-Apr-2017

TD19F is expected to track east-southeast from Thursday and lie near
southern Cook Islands, then weaken from Friday onwards.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Wed 12-Apr-2017

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2017

 

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm COOK is currently located near 26.6 S 168.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). COOK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Norfolk Island
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA14 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING_SOUTH_25S / 1311

WTNZ41 NZKL 111311
GALE WARNING 279
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK 990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6 SOUTH
168.8 EAST AT 111200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.6S 168.8E AT 111200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WITH VERY
ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 268.=

South West Pacific Marine

UPDATED

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 110800 UTC. PART 1 : WARNINGSTORM WARNING 034 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110731 UTC. REFER TO STORM WARNING NUMBER 268 ISSUED BY RSMC WELLINGTON. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 032. ********************************************************************* ************** GALE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 110847 UTC. IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 23S 174W 23S 165W 25S 175W 25S 166W,EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 033. ********************************************************************* ************** PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Apr 120600 UTC. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 11S 160E 16S 165E 23S 169E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1. WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 10S 160W 08S 145W 07S 130W 07S 120W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. TROUGH T1 04S 160E 08S 175E 11S 179W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 12S 176W 18S 170W 20S 168W 25S 167W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. TROUGH T3 09S 169W 13S 163W 16S 160W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3. TROUGH T4 17S 152W 21S 145W 25S 138W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T4. TROUGH T5 25S 156W 22S 149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF T5. OUTSIDE STORM WARNING NUMBER 034 AND IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 22S AND BETWEEN 165E AND 175E, EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND BETWEEN 175E AND 135W, EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA SOUTH OF EQ AND EAST OF 135W, EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Loyalty Islands/ Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) 120300Z POSITION near 20.7S 166.7E, moving ESE at 18 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120415 0905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Solo

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone SOLO

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 11 issued 0110 UTC Sunday 12 April 2015

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone SOLO

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am April 12 1 20.3S 166.0E 165
+6hr 6 am April 12 tropical low 21.1S 167.4E 195
+12hr 12 pm April 12 tropical low 22.1S 169.1E 220
+18hr 6 pm April 12 tropical low 23.1S 171.0E 250
+24hr 12 am April 13 tropical low 24.2S 173.3E 280
+36hr 12 pm April 13 tropical low 26.3S 178.1E 340
+48hr 12 am April 14 tropical low 28.4S 176.9W 400
+60hr 12 pm April 14 tropical low 31.9S 170.8W 485
+72hr 12 am April 15 tropical low 39.3S 161.5W 570

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

Z

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 12/0138 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.3S 166.0E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

SOLO IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS CYCLONE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES INTO A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SST. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LLCC WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH SUPPOSED
LLCC ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES FROM EDGE YIELDS DT=2.0, MET AND PAT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS IT.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 22.1S 169.1E MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 24.2S 173.3E MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 26.3S 178.1E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 28.4S 176.9E MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TC SOLO UNLESS IT RE-INTENSIFIES.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh2315 s12

 https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/23P_112332sams.jpg

WTPS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 20.2S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 165.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 22.3S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 24.8S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 166.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
FULLY EXPOSED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM KNES. ADDITIONALLY, NUMEROUS NEARBY 120000z SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE, INCLUDING STATIONS 91582 AND 91579, WITH
A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOTS REPORTED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CURRENTLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS) IS
STEADILY INCREASING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE REGION
ARE 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER, TC SOLO WILL SOON REACH SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS. FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 18 KNOTS AS TC
23P TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 15 FEET.
//
NNNN

TSR SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Apr, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SOLO (23P) currently located near 20.2 S 165.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

Image: TSR

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 12/0100 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3
SOUTH 166.0 EAST AT 120000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.3S 166.0E AT 120000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
30 KNOTS BY 120600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.1S 169.1E AT 121200 UTC
AND NEAR 24.2S 173.3E AT 130000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL GALE WARNING ON TC SOLO UNLESS IT
RE-INTENSIFIES.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Caledonia/ Pacific Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ola 09F /10P 011200Z near 21.1S 162.1E, moving S at 7 knots (RSMC NADI) – Updated 010215 1836z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ola 09F /10P

Category Cyclone 3 (mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa) – RSMC Nadi

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone OLA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 1327 UTC Sunday 1 February 2015

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone OLA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm February 1 3 21.1S 162.1E 110
+6hr 6 pm February 1 3 21.6S 162.0E 140
+12hr 12 am February 2 3 22.2S 161.9E 165
+18hr 6 am February 2 3 22.6S 161.7E 195
+24hr 12 pm February 2 3 23.1S 161.5E 220
+36hr 12 am February 3 2 23.8S 160.8E 280
+48hr 12 pm February 3 2 24.6S 159.9E 345
+60hr 12 am February 4 1 25.5S 159.4E 430
+72hr 12 pm February 4 1 26.1S 159.4E 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/1711 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 3^ CENTRE 955HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.1S 162.1E AT 011200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LLCC EMBEDDED IN WHITE GIVING
DT=5.0, PT=5.0 AND MET=5.0.DT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 22.2S 161.9E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 23.1S 161.5E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 23.8S 160.8E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 24.6S 159.9E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
012000 UTC.

(* RSMC NADI
Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa )

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 1 February 2015
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 4 February 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone Ola, situated well offshore of the Queensland east coast (west
of New Caledonia) is expected to move in a general southwards direction over
the next couple of days and may enter the region on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone
Ola should be on a weakening trend around the time it approaches the region,
though for the latest information on this system refer to the Fiji
Meteorological Service website at http://www.met.gov.fj.

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next few days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday Very low
Tuesday Low
Wednesday Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1015

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10P_010532sams.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
010600Z — NEAR 20.5S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 162.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 21.8S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 22.9S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 23.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 24.8S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 26.0S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 26.2S 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 162.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE BUT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A
010428Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, TC OLA HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
FROM 45 KTS TO AN ASSESSED INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. MODERATE (10 TO 20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THAT TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
BEYOND THIS, EXPECT A RIDGE TO FORM SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING TC
10P TO GAIN A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. DUE TO THE INCREASED VWS AND
COOLER SSTS, EXPECT TC OLA TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AND
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIFURCATION
IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH GFS DRIVEN MODELS CONTINUING TO
FORCE TC 10P SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, WHICH MAY STILL BE A
POSSIBLE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WILL BE MILD BEFORE VWS AND
SSTS CAUSE IT TO DETERIORATE. FOR THE ABOVE REASONS, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND
020900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 044 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 01/1302 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA CENTRE 955HPA CATEGORY 3* WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1 SOUTH 162.1
EAST AT 011200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.1S 162.1E at 011200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 7 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY
021200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.2S 161.9E AT 020000 UTC
AND NEAR 23.1S 161.5E AT 021200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 043.

(* RSMC NADI
Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa )

There are other warnings at:

METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Norfolk Island (AUS)/ Auckland (NZ): Ex Tropical Cyclone 08F JUNE 191200Z nr 29S 166E , moving SSE at 20 knots (MetService NZ) – 190114 1444z

Tropical Cyclone 08F JUNE (RSMC Nadi)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P JUNE (JTWC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone June: A Cyclone WARNING is current for Norfolk Island, Australia (BoM)

June currently headed toward Norfolk Island, AUS, then Auckland, NZ

(G: Some images, despite being correct at time of edit, for some reason are not updating  on the finished post. Please check time stamps carefully. Most images link to source if clicked upon. Some quick updates may be found in comments at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

 

Tropical Cyclone JUNE

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 1321 UTC Saturday 18 January 2014

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone JUNE

 

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm January 18 1 22.4S 164.8E 110
+6hr 6 pm January 18 1 23.8S 165.1E 140
+12hr 12 am January 19 tropical low 25.3S 165.6E 165
+18hr 6 am January 19 tropical low 26.8S 166.0E 195
+24hr 12 pm January 19 tropical low 28.2S 166.9E 220
+36hr 12 am January 20 tropical low 30.9S 168.8E 280
+48hr 12 pm January 20 tropical low 33.2S 171.2E 345
+60hr 12 am January 21 tropical low 35.5S 174.2E 430
+72hr 12 pm January 21 tropical low 38.3S 177.3E 520

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

 

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/1946 UTC 2014 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6S
165.1E AT 181800 UTC. POSITION POOR ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS AND LIES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN, LLCC SHEARED 85NM FROM
DEEP CONVECTION YEILDING DT OF 2.0, MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON
MET THUS, T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TROPICAL
CYCLONE JUNE.

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone June

Issued at 12:16 am NFT Monday 20 January 2014 based on international data at 11:30 pm NFT. Refer to Norfolk Island Tropical Cyclone Advice.

 

 

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from New Zealand.

Note: Information in text warning may have been issued at a different time to the latest track data.
Remarks:

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE is currently passing to the west of Norfolk Island and is expected to continue moving in a southeast direction for the next 24 hours. The impacts on Norfolk Island are expected to be similar to a Category 1 tropical cyclone.

Damaging winds averaging about 75 kilometres per hour, with gusts to about 110 kilometres per hour, are currently occurring on Norfolk Island and will persist for the next 6 to 12 hours.

Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas, may occur along the foreshore tonight and during Monday.

Name:  Ex-Tropical Cyclone June

Details:

Time (NFT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 am January 20 tropical low 29.1S 166.6E 85
+6hr 6 am January 20 tropical low 30.7S 167.4E 105
+12hr 12 pm January 20 tropical low 32.0S 168.3E 130
+18hr 6 pm January 20 tropical low 33.1S 169.5E 150
+24hr 12 am January 21 tropical low 34.0S 170.8E 175
+36hr 12 pm January 21 tropical low 36.3S 174.7E 210
+48hr 12 am January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+60hr 12 pm January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX
+72hr 12 am January 23 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau’s website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:30 am NFT Monday

IDQ20064
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Issued at 12:15 am NFT Monday 20 January 2014 based on international data at
11:30 pm NFT

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for Norfolk Island.

At 11:30 pm NFT, the centre of Ex-Tropical Cyclone June was estimated to be 130
kilometres west of Norfolk Island and moving south southeast at 33 kilometres
per hour.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE is currently passing to the west of Norfolk Island and
is expected to continue moving in a southeast direction for the next 24 hours.
The impacts on Norfolk Island are expected to be similar to a Category 1
tropical cyclone.

Damaging winds averaging about 75 kilometres per hour, with gusts to about 110
kilometres per hour, are currently occurring on Norfolk Island and will persist
for the next 6 to 12 hours.

Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and
abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas,
may occur along the foreshore tonight and during Monday.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone June at 11:30 pm NFT:
.Centre located near…… 29.1 degrees South 166.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southeast at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 110 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure……… 992 hectoPascals

The Community and Visitors to Norfolk Island should remain inside until
Ex-Tropical Cyclone June has passed and listen to the next advice at 3:30am NFT.
– Information is available from Emergency Management Norfolk Island [+6723 999]
or the Norfolk Island Police Force [+6723 22222]
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Norfolk Island
Administration website at: http://www.info.gov.nf/Emergency_Management
– For emergency assistance call the Emergency Management Norfolk Island on +6723
999 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

The next advice will be issued by 3:30 am NFT Monday 20 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau’s
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island
Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from
New Zealand.

Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs

TCWC-Wellington/Meteorological Service of New Zealand, Ltd.
http://www.metservice.co.nz/forecasts/severe_weather.asp

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2014 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JUNE (10P) currently located near 20.0 S 163.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1014.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/10P_172332sams.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005    
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
190600Z — NEAR 27.9S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 165.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 31.6S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 166.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON, NORFOLK ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS SHALLOWED
AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED OVER RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY AND COMPLETES ETT AS A COLD CORE LOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 10 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

METAREA14 / GALE_STORM_WARNING_SOUTH_25S / 1203

WWNZ40 NZKL 191203 GALE WARNING 239 THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC AT 191200UTC OVER WATERS SOUTH OF 25S. LOW 992HPA, FORMER CYCLONE JUNE, NEAR 29S 166E MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 20KT. WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW: CLOCKWISE 40KT. GALE AREA MOVING WITH LOW. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 237.

Subtropic high seas forecast

Issued by MetService at 7:22pm Sunday 19 Jan 2014 NZ

Forecast valid to 1:00am Tuesday 21 Jan 2014: South of 37S and east of 178E and west 175W: Northwest quarter 25kt, easing by 200000UTC. Low 990hPa, former Cyclone JUNE, near 27S 165E moving southsoutheast 20kt. Within 300 nautical miles of Low in sector from south through west to northeast: Clockwise 25kt and gales as in warning 237. Within 420 nautical miles of Low in sector from northeast through southeast to south: Clockwise 25kt and gales as in warning 237. Within 420 nautical miles of Low: Poor visibility in areas of rain and areas of heavy swell.

Outlook following 72 hours

Low, former Cyclone June, expected near 34S 170E at 201200UTC, continuing to move southeast. Clockwise 25kt to gale near low until 221200UTC, with heavy northerly swells in southeast quadrant. High expected near 40S 145E at 221200UTC, extending ridge northeast,then moving east.

GALE WARNING 239
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 191200UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
Low 992hPa, former Cyclone JUNE, near 29S 166E moving southsoutheast 20kt.
Within 240 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 40kt.
Gale area moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 237.

Issued at 1:04am Monday 20 Jan 2014

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before:
NZDT: 8:15am, 8:15pm
NZST: 9:15am, 9:15pm
Updates and amendments may be issued at any time.

 

Australia: Ex-Tropical Cyclone 19P (#SANDRA) CAT2 (SS-TS) 141000Z/142000EDT nr 31.2S 161.4E moving S at 24 km/h (QLD TCWC) – 140313 1310z

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map(Click image for source)
(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone Sandra

Issued at 10:23 pm EDT Thursday 14 March 2013. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.
NOW OUT OF DATE

 

 

Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
Warning Zone Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone Gales from 24 to 48 hours
Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Strong Gale Force Winds
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureaus best estimate of the cyclones future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 2, is situated over the northern Tasman Sea and is moving to the south. The system is expected to maintain category 2 strength overnight, but will weaken during Friday morning as it moves away from Lord Howe Island on a south southeasterly track.

Damaging surf, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected about Lord Howe Island overnight and through Friday. This may lead to beach erosion.

Destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/hr are now occurring on Lord Howe Island, and these conditions are likely to continue from now until the early hours of Friday. Wind gusts to about 100 km/hr are forecast to persist until Friday evening.

Rainfall of sufficient intensity to lead to flash flooding is no longer expected over the island.

The NSW State Emergency Service advise you:

– Stay indoors away from windows and keep children indoors.
– dont walk, ride your bicycle or drive through flood water, and keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
– check your property regularly for erosion or inundation by sea water, and if necessary raise goods and electrical items.
– Stay out of the water and stay well away from surf-exposed areas.

For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the Lord Howe Island Police on [02] 6563 2199

Name:Tropical Cyclone Sandra

Details:

Time (EDT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm March 14 2 31.2S 161.4E 75
+6hr 2 am March 15 2 31.7S 161.5E 135
+12hr 8 am March 15 1 32.3S 161.6E 155
+18hr 2 pm March 15 1 32.8S 161.7E 180
+24hr 8 pm March 15 tropical low 33.0S 161.8E 200
+36hr 8 am March 16 tropical low 33.8S 162.3E 240
+48hr 8 pm March 16 tropical low 35.1S 164.1E 275

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 1:00 am EDT Friday

 

Maritime

GALE WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 13/1920 UTC 2013 UTC.

REFER TO WARNING 254 ISSUED BY WELLINGTON ON TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA. 

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 027.

MetService Wellington New Zealand

Issued by MetService at 7:58pm Saturday 16 Mar 2013

Forecast valid to 1:00am Monday 18 Mar 2013: Poor visibility in rain within 180 nautical miles of first front 29S 150W 34S 134W 38S 119W moving eastnortheast 5kt, easing by 170000UTC. Broad high 1024hPa near 41S 166W moving east 20kt, extends ridge 39S 144W 40S 120W moving eastnortheast 10kt. South of ridge: Westerly quarter 25kt with storms and gales as in warnings 307 310 and areas of heavy southwest swell. Poor visibility in rain within 180 nautical miles of second front 30S 153W 31S 162W 21S 162W moving southeast 10kt. Low 1002hPa near 29S 162W moving southsouthwest 10kt.West of 152W,south of 27S,north of ridge:Easterly quarter 25kt turning clockwise about low with gales as in warning 309.

Outlook following 72 hours

Large high 42S 147W moving eastnortheast. Southeast of high:Southwest 25kt to gale, with heavy southwest swell spreading northeast. Southwest of high: Northwest 20 to 30kt, rising 25kt to gale by 180600UTC. Low 33S 163W moving southeast but filled by 190600UTC. Clockwise 20 to 30kt about low. Trough expected 55S 166W to northwest at 181200UTC, moving east. Ahead of trough and south of 35S:Northwest 20 to 30kt, with gales at times. Southwest of trough: Southwest quarter 20 to 30kt, with gales at time. Heavy swell in gale areas.

STORM WARNING 307
This affects ocean areas: PACIFIC and SOUTHERN
AT 160600UTC
1. In a belt 300 nautical miles wide centred on a line 58S 144W 55S 137W 54S 127W: Southwest 50kt easing to 40kt next 6-12 hours. Storm area moving eastnortheast 30kt.
2. Outside area 1 and in a belt 540 nautical miles wide centred on a line 59S 152W 54S 137W 54S 120W: Southwest 40kt. Gale area moving eastnortheast 25kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 303.

Issued at 7:20pm Saturday 16 Mar 2013

GALE WARNING 309
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 160600UTC
Low 1002hPa near 29S 162W moving southsouthwest 10kt.
In a belt 180 nautical miles wide centred on a line 31S 156W 32S 162W 28S 164W: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving southsouthwest 15kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 305.

Issued at 7:20pm Saturday 16 Mar 2013

GALE WARNING 310
This affects ocean areas: FORTIES PACIFIC and SOUTHERN
AT 160600UTC
In a belt 300 nautical miles wide centred on a line 59S 178W 57S 171W 54S 163W: Westerly 35kt at times.
Gale area moving east 45kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 306.

Issued at 7:20pm Saturday 16 Mar 2013

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)
The following is now out of date:

WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140000Z NEAR 29.1S 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 180 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 162.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z 31.2S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME ELONGATED ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS AND REMAINED FULLY-
EXPOSED DURING THE LAST TWELVE HOURS. THE REMAINING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS DISPLACED OVER THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT AND STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS CAN BE SEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE
EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND PGTW FIX WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POORLY-DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PRIOR 131109Z ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED
A LARGE 40-45 KNOT WIND FIELD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND A MORE RECENT 38-42 KNOT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE, AS SUBJECTIVE DVORAKS DO NOT ACCURATELY CLASSIFY THE
SYSTEMS CURRENT STATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS
LOCATED WELL POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND JUST EAST OF
A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HIGH AT 30-40
KNOTS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS POLEWARD OF THE LLCC DUE TO
SPEED DIVERGENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET FLOW OVERHEAD. BASED ON
THE ABOVEMENTIONED DYNAMICS OVER TC 19P AND 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS EXTRA-TROPICAL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A MODERATE MID-LATITUDE COLD-CORE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 19 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P
(TIM) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Sandra
(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type

-
12 GMT 03/07/13 15.4S 156.8E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 03/08/13 14.8S 156.5E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 03/08/13 14.9S 157.7E 70 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 03/09/13 15.3S 158.3E 75 Category 1
12 GMT 03/09/13 15.7S 159.6E 75 Category 1
00 GMT 03/10/13 15.9S 160.5E 100 Category 2
12 GMT 03/10/13 16.5S 161.1E 125 Category 3
00 GMT 03/11/13 17.1S 161.7E 120 Category 3
12 GMT 03/11/13 18.2S 162.0E 105 Category 2
00 GMT 03/12/13 20S 161.9E 100 Category 2
12 GMT 03/12/13 21.9S 161.9E 85 Category 1
00 GMT 03/13/13 23.6S 161.5E 65 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 03/13/13 25.9S 162.0E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 03/14/13 29.1S 162.1E 45 Tropical Storm

Tsunami in Solomon Islands after mag 8.0 Earthquake nr Santa Cruz Islands, 9 dead, several missing. 100 homes damaged or destroyed – 070213 1540z

A tsunami has struck the eastern Solomon Islands after a powerful earthquake that briefly triggered warnings for several South Pacific nations.

The magnitude 8.0 quake near the Santa Cruz Islands is reported to have destroyed at least three villages. Officials in the Solomon Islands say there may be casualties.

The U.S. Geological Survey says a tsunami measuring 0.9 meters hit the town of Lata in the Santa Cruz Island chain in the eastern part of the Solomon Islands.

Officials say the wave swept half a kilometer inland, destroying homes and sending panicked residents fleeing to higher ground.

Solomon Islands Police Commissioner John Lansley says authorities are trying to establish how much damage the tsunami has caused.

“We believe that three, possibly four villages have been affected,” said Lansley.

“The severity we are not clear about and I do not want to speculate, but we are doing our utmost to establish a little bit more information about the effects of the surge wave. We also are not clear
on casualties, although we believe there may be casualties.”

Wednesday, 06 February, 2013 at 10:50 UTC RSOE

Update 07 Feb 2013:

Aid workers struggled to reach remote, tsunami-ravaged villages in the Solomon Islands on Thursday, as the death toll rose with more bodies found in wrecked homes and debris in the South Pacific island chain.

At least nine people, including a child, were killed when a powerful earthquake set off a small tsunami that sent 4 foot, 11-inch waves roaring inland on Santa Cruz Island, in the eastern Solomons, on Wednesday.

Around 100 homes across five villages were damaged or destroyed. The waves proved deadly for five elderly villagers and a child who weren’t fast enough to outrun the rushing water, said George Herming, a spokesman for the prime minister. Three more bodies were found Thursday, but Herming said details of how those victims died were not immediately available.

Several others are missing and dozens of strong aftershocks were keeping frightened villagers from returning to the coast, Herming said. “People are still scared of going back to their homes because there’s nothing left, so they are residing in temporary shelters on higher ground,” Herming said. The tsunami was generated by an 8.0-magnitude earthquake that struck near the town of Lata, on Santa Cruz in Temotu, the easternmost province in the Solomons. Disaster officials were en route to the isolated area Thursday after the local airport, which was flooded by the tsunami, was finally cleared of debris.

Thursday, 07 February, 2013 at 09:11 UTC RSOE

News Reports:

Quake off Solomon Islands triggers deadly tsunami

BBC NEWS 6 February 2013 Last updated at 09:23

Map locator

Homes were damaged and at least five people have been reported dead after a tsunami triggered by an undersea earthquake hit the Solomon Islands.

The quake, with a magnitude 8.0, struck at 01:12 GMT near the Santa Cruz islands, the US Geological Survey said.

A tsunami measuring 0.9m (3ft) then hit Lata on eastern Santa Cruz island, swamping the island’s airport.

A tsunami warning was triggered for several Pacific nations, but was cancelled about two hours later.

Lata is the main town on Santa Cruz, also known as Nendo. It is the largest island in the Santa Cruz island chain, part of the Solomon Islands nation.

The worst of the damage was said to have been on the western coast of Santa Cruz, with one report putting the waves there at 1.5m.

Medical staff at Lata hospital said five people had been killed – four elderly people and one young boy.

But director of nursing Augustine Pilve told New Zealand television that number could rise.

“It’s more likely that other villages along the coast of Santa Cruz may be affected,” he said.

Robert Iroga, press secretary to the Solomons prime minister, told the BBC that the waves west of Lata had travelled some 500m inland, and that three villages had been damaged.

Many of the homes in the area were semi-permanent, he said, and were reported to have been flattened.

Police were travelling to the area, he said, and the priority was to ensure the local airport is functioning so aid and supplies can be flown in.

Another government spokesman, George Herming, said reports suggested that between 60 to 70 homes have been damaged in four villages on Santa Cruz Islands.

“At this stage, authorities are still trying to establish the exact number and extent of damage,” he told AFP, adding that communications with the islands was difficult because of their remoteness.

House in Solomon Islands (file image) Officials said many of the “semi-permanent” houses in the area may have been flattened

‘No threat’

Initial reports by the USGS said the quake had a shallow depth of 5.8km (3.6 miles) but it later revised the figure to 28.7km (17.8 miles).

Luke Taula, a fisheries officer in Lata, told Reuters news agency the wave came as several small tidal surges.

“We have small waves come in, then go out again, then come back in. The waves have reached the airport terminal,” he told the news agency.

Tsunami warnings were issued for the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, New Caledonia, Kosrae, Fiji, Kiribati, and Wallis and Futuna islands.

But they were later cancelled. by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, which warned that some coastal areas may still experience small changes in sea level.

The Solomon Islands form part of the Ring Of Fire, a zone of volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches encircling the Pacific basin.

The 8.0 earthquake was followed by several aftershocks, the largest measuring 6.6 magnitude.

The region has been experiencing a series of smaller quakes in recent days.

In 2007 an 8.1 magnitude earthquake triggered a tsunami that killed at least 52 people in the Solomons and left thousands homeless.” – BBC News

Severe Tropical Cyclone #FREDA Cat 3 (SS-Cat 2) 311500Z nr 17.8S 161.7E, moving SSE at 09 kts – 311212 1850z

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)
(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

 

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone FREDA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 86 issued 1316 UTC Monday 31 December 2012

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:Severe Tropical Cyclone FREDA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm December 31 3 17.7S 161.7E 85
+6hr 6 pm December 31 3 18.2S 161.7E 110
+12hr 12 am January 1 3 18.6S 161.7E 140
+18hr 6 am January 1 2 19.1S 161.7E 165
+24hr 12 pm January 1 2 19.6S 161.9E 195
+36hr 12 am January 2 2 20.4S 162.5E 255
+48hr 12 pm January 2 1 21.2S 163.4E 315
+60hr 12 am January 3 1 21.9S 164.4E 405
+72hr 12 pm January 3 1 22.6S 165.1E 490

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa
The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.
 

HURRICANE WARNING 086 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 31/1302 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 967HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7
SOUTH 161.7 EAST AT 311200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.7S 161.7E AT 311200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY
011200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.6S 161.7E AT 010000 UTC
AND NEAR 19.6S 161.9E AT 011200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 084.
 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
311200Z — NEAR 17.6S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 161.7E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 18.5S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 19.2S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 20.1S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 20.7S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 21.9S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 23.1S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 24.6S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS
AND THE LOSS OF ALL BANDING FEATURES. A 310906Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE TRMM IMAGE AND
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING
TREND AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A JET MAX
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05P IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW CALEDONIA THROUGH TAU 96 DUE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OVER AUSTRALIA, MOVING IN AND WEAKENING THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 96 A DEEP-LAYERED STR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM GIVING TC 05P A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BIAS. TC 05P WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG VWS AND
COOL (24 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
NEW CALEDONIA, FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH TAU 72 BUT NOW
SHOWS THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN DUE TO ECMWF LOSING THE VORTEX NEAR NEW
CALEDONIA. NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS ALL SHOW THIS GENERAL TURN IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STR THAT IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS
40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

Press Reports:

ABC News

Cyclone Freda lashes Solomon Islands

 

Tropical Cyclone Freda has struck the Solomon Islands, bringing heavy rains and winds of up to 130 kilometres per hour.

Witnesses say roofs have been ripped off houses and trees have been flattened, while rising rivers caused flooding in some areas.

There are no reports of deaths or injuries.

Sajay Prakesh of the Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre in Fiji said although the cyclone was moving away, parts of the Solomon Islands were being hit by very strong winds and heavy rain.

Cyclone Freda is now a category two cyclone and it is continuing to intensify, he said on Saturday afternoon.

It will become category-three by midnight tonight, having very destructive winds.

Coastal and low-lying areas are at risk of inundation and fishermen have been advised to stay away from the sea.

Matthew Bass from the Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane says Freda is no longer expected to hit Vanuatu and New Caledonia in the coming days.

At this stage its expected to maintain a reasonably southerly path and with that it isnt directly expected to affect Vanuatu in the next couple of days, he said.

At this stage around New Years were expecting it to be quite far from New Caledonia, still to the north-east of the islands.

Freda comes just weeks after Cyclone Evan killed at least five people in Samoa before destroying homes and stranding thousands of tourists in Fiji.

Queensland weather forecaster Peter Otto says the Freda is about 1,300 kilometres from the Australian coast.

This cyclone is expected to stay way off the eastern Australian coast for the next several days and the only impact we can see in the near future is the possibility of waves increasing into the early part of next week, but thats a long way off, he said.

Meanwhile, the weather bureau says a cyclone off Western Australia is unlikely to reach the coast.

Category-one Cyclone Mitchell is about 600 kilometres north-north-west of Exmouth and is expected to move south over the next 48 hours.

It is likely to intensify to a category-two overnight, before weakening again on Sunday.

However, David Farr from the Bureau of Meteorology says Mitchell is not expected to cross the coast.

On the current forecast track it wont affect the north west coast of WA, he said.

Theres a slight risk of gales on the upper west coast if the system takes a track a bit more to the south-east from what were expecting. But it is only a slight risk.

31 Dec 2012:

Cyclone Freda approaches northern New Caledonia

Updated at 7:07 pm 31 December 2012 (NZ Time)

Tropical Cyclone Freda is expected to weaken as it approaches New Caledonia over the next day or so.

The category four cyclone is now in the Coral Sea having brought heavy rain and damaged crops in parts of Solomon Islands.

It is expected to be about 300 kilometres west of the northern New Caledonian islands of Belep by midnight on Monday.

New Zealands MetService says the cyclone has sustained winds of 175 kilometres an hour at its centre with gusts reaching 275 kilometres an hour.

It says gales can be expected in the French territorys northernmost islands in the next 24 to 48 hours.

MetService says the slow-moving storm is expected to lie about 280 kilometres to the west of Poum, at the north of New Caledonias main island, by noon on Wednesday. radionz.co.nz