Myanmar/ Bay Of Bengal: Tropical Depression 92B (Future CS Maarutha)150300Z 12.5N 88.3E, moving NNE 10.8kt (RSMC New Delhi)- Published 15 Apr 2017 1240z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression 92B

(Future Cyclonic Storm Maarutha)

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15-04-2017


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2017
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 20 KMPH DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 12.5º N AND LONGITUDE 88.3 ºE, ABOUT 500 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 950 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE (48062) AND SANDWAY (48080) BY FORENOON OF 17TH.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 1.5. THE CONVECTION HAS ORGANISED DURING PAST 12 HRS AND SHOWS CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH WELL DEFINED WRAPPING FROM EASTERN SECTOR. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER SOUTH AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 9.0 DEGREE NORTH TO 17.0 DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.5 DEGREE EAST TO 95.0 DEGREE EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 70 DEGREE CELCIUS. A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 11.4/91.9 REPORTED MSLP OF 1003.8 HPA AND WIND OF 1700/14 KTS. AVAILABLE SHIP AND BUOY DATA AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO BE ABOUT 1001 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. MULTI-SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS 30-320C. IT DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 28-290C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. IT ALSO DECREASES TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST BECOMING 60-80 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 3 HOURS AND IS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS (HIGH) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 150 x 10-6 S-1 AND CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 x 10-5 S-1 .THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO THE SOUHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40 x 10-5 S-1 THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 100N. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 7 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 8 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AMPLITUDE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY INDICATE INCURSION OF WARM MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. HENCE CONSIDERING ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, WHILE OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, VORTICITY AND TPW ARE FAVOURABLE, MJO AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE UNFAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM MAY REACH UPTO THE INTENSITY OF DEEP DEPRESSION/CYCLONIC STORM.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION/ CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS.
(M.MOHAPATRA)
HEAD-RSMC, NEW DELHI

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

ABIO10 PGTW 150200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/150200Z-151800ZAPR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150051ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 87.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 600
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142121Z AMSU-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND IS NOW CIRCULAR IN SHAPE WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY
IN THE NORTHEAST WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) OFFSET BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
AND DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTIO21 PGTW 150100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

Other Sources

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 15 Apr, 2017 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ONE is currently located near 14.3 N 90.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). ONE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Sandoway (18.5 N, 94.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Myanaung (18.3 N, 95.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Bassein (16.7 N, 94.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Henzada (17.6 N, 95.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

DoctorAdvice4u (@RoshinRowjee) | Twitter

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 151115
SPECIAL GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 0600 HOURS FROM 0600 UTC 15 APRIL 2017.

PARTI:-NO STORM WARNING:-

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 28 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL, 2017 OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 13.2
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 89.0 DEG E, ABOUT 420 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA
BANDAR (ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS) AND 840 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE
AND SANDWAY (MYANMAR) BY FORENOON OF 17TH APRIL.

PART:-II:
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
———————— ——————-
ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 56 DEG E : S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 56 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 56 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N; NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15
KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 58 DEG E TO 74 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N: :SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 60 DEG E TO 75 DEG E AND S OF 7 DEG N: :6-4 NM(.)
2)REST AREA:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:
1) E OF 75 DEG E 0.5-2 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA 0.5-1 MTR (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)W OF 58 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)E OF 58 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
E/SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 58 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 58 DEG E TO 63 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
4)E OF 63 DEG E TO 65 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
5)E OF 65 DEG E TO 75 DEG E :NW/W-LYNW/W-LY 05/15 KTS(.)
6)E OF 75 DEG E AND N OF 5 DEG N: NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS
BEC SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 78 DEG E(.)
7)E OF 75 DEG E AND S OF 5 DEG N: W-LY 05/15 KTS
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 64 DEG E AND S OF 6 DEG N :8-6 NM(.)
3)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT
1)W OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-1 MTR(.)
2)E OF 75 DEG E: 0.5-3 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 62 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 0.5-2 MTR (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION
1)W OF 65 DEG E AND S OF 20 DEG N:ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)
2)N OF 20 DEG N: S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
3)E OF 65 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2 MTR (.)
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E
AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1)CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)E OF 85 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 85 DEG E : :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 85 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR
A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC :20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)W OF 84 DEG E :4-3 NM(.)
2)E OF 84 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3-4 MTR (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT 3-4 MTR (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER
1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 83 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:
1)E OF 83 DEG E : 3-2 NM
2)W OF 83 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:3-4 NM
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Advertisements